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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A New Take on the Human Factor in Recent Extreme Events

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2015

Much debate in the last few years has centered on persistent kinks in the polar jet stream and the extreme weather they’ve helped produce, such as the record snowfalls in New England last February. Top researchers differ on how much a changing climate might be involved with this jet-stream “weirding.” However, there’s no question that sea levels have risen and global temperatures have warmed. Those unassailable facts may serve as the most direct link between climate change and extreme events, according to the Perspectives article Attribution of climate extreme events, published on Monday in Nature Climate Change. The authors include Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and Theodore Shepherd (University of Reading, England).

Trenberth is a leading expert in the global flows of energy and water around the world. Because warmer temperatures and increased water vapor have influenced the whole of Earth’s atmosphere, Trenberth and colleagues start with the premise that every storm is influenced by climate change to at least some extent. “The environment in which all weather events occur is not what he used to be,” their new paper states. At the same time, they agree that no storm is entirely a result of climate change: “...it is not possible to attribute a single climate extreme event, which by definition is unique and which has a large element of chance in its occurrence, to a specific cause.”


Figure 1. Temperature anomalies for July 2003 in western Europe, as calculated by observations from NASA’s Terra satellite. Image credit: Reto Stockli and Robert Simmon, based upon data provided by the MODIS Land Science Team.


Recognizing this quandary, many researchers who look into climate change and extreme events use models and observations to gauge how much of the risk of a particular extreme can be attributed to a warming planet. A landmark study led by Peter Stott (UK Hadley Centre) found a greater-than-90-percent chance that a European heat wave on par with the 2003 disaster that killed an estimated 70,000 people had become at least twice as likely due to human-produced greenhouse gases. Such studies often call on large-scale circulation, such as the flow at 500 millibars, as a key index of the extreme event. But there is a great deal of natural variability in where upper-level highs and lows set up, so an attribution study focused on circulation might find no evidence that climate change helped create a extreme event, even if there is unprecedented rainfall or heat--the variables that actually cause impact--associated with it. The new paper suggests that a more useful question might be: “Given the weather pattern, how were the temperatures, precipitation and associated impacts influenced by climate change?” The paper goes on to look at four recent events (see below) and how they would look through this lens.

Dáithí Stone, an attribution expert at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and leader of the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast, sent me this take on the paper: "Recent studies exploring the role of greenhouse gas emissions in extreme weather events tend to be conservative by working under the 'innocent until proven guilty' paradigm, but this paper argues it would also be useful to work under the 'guilty until proven innocent' paradigm, or something in between. This is really the precautionary principle and can certainly make sense for adaptation decisions: even though residents of a coastal city might not have been measuring sea level, they may still think it wise to assume it is rising. But looking at things in the innocent-until-proven-guilty approach can be wise too, as in the Western legal systems designed to prevent witch hunts. So which paradigm is better depends on the purpose."

It remains to be seen which scientists will follow the lead of the new paper and focus more on thermodynamics (heat, moisture) and sea level rise, as opposed to circulation change. Jennifer Francis (Rutgers University) is among those who’ve found evidence for a link between depleted Arctic sea ice and unusual jet-stream behavior. In an email to me, she agreed with the overall conclusion of Trenberth and colleagues: “One should focus on climate changes that are irrefutable--such as rising sea levels, warmer tropospheric temperatures, increased water vapor, warmer SSTs, and changing soil moisture--all on a case-specific basis. Given a particular circulation pattern or weather system, these changes will affect the impacts of that system.” At the same time, she maintains that the question of how cutoff lows, blocking highs, and other jet-stream configurations may be changing is equally important. “Addressing this question requires a different approach that identifies and measures changes in these types of patterns,” said Francis. “For example, knowing whether the frequency of strong ridging in the eastern Pacific will change depending on certain factors--such as Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns and/or Arctic sea-ice loss--will be tremendously valuable in planning for water resources in western states.” She added: “Changes in dynamics are harder to pin down, but ultimately they have a farther-reaching impact on probabilities of particular extremes.”

Below are summaries of the four events linked by Trenberth and colleagues to thermodynamic and sea-level changes. The full paper can be viewed from a link at this Guardian blog post by John Abraham, thanks to a nature.com content sharing initiative. At Mashable, Andrew Freedman provides additional perspective on the new paper. A matrix created in 2012 for UCAR/NCAR AtmosNews outlines several different ways that scientists have approached the attribution of extreme events to climate change.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

1) Hurricane Sandy, 2012
Hurricane Sandy, the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, barreled into New Jersey on October 29, 2012, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, heavy snow, and a massive storm surge. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the storm’s 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the United States. While papers have been published arguing that climate change could be expected to make Sandy’s unusual 1-in-700 year track west-northwestwards into new Jersey more or less likely, the authors of Monday’s study argue that the increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along its track due to global warming likely led to a bigger, more intense storm, stronger winds, and greater precipitation. Sandy traversed a broad strip of SSTs that were 1 - 1.5 °C warmer than average along the U.S. East Coast, and a 2014 model study using the European model by Magnusson et al., Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for Hurricane Sandy, found that these warmer SSTs decreased Sandy’s central pressure by 7.6 mb, increased the winds by 8 mph (3.6 m/s), and increased the precipitation by 35%. The authors of Monday’s study write, “Moreover, the storm was riding on sea levels that were higher by about 7.5” (19 cm) because of global warming. Although perhaps only one-half to one-third of the SST increase can be blamed on global warming from human activities, it is readily apparent that the storm surge and associated damage was considerably influenced by climate change. It is quite possible that the subways and tunnels might not have flooded without the warming-induced increases in sea level and in storm intensity and size, putting a potential price tag of human climate change on this storm in the tens of billions of dollars.” Indeed, Lloyd’s of London estimated that the amount of sea level rise due to global warming over the past century led to an additional $8 billion in damage from Sandy’s storm surge in New York. Here is another analysis (from UCAR/NCAR AtmosNews) on the factors that went into Sandy’s surge.


Figure 2. Damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado in September, 2013. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.

2) Boulder, Colorado floods, 2013
In September 2013, records rains over the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies fed rampaging floods that killed at least nine people and did $2 billion in damage. An assessment published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society last September concluded concluded that the flood was not made more likely or more intense by climate change, given that models were just as likely to produce heavy September rain when run for the period 1870–1900 as for 1983–2012. However, the authors of the new study write, “Extremely high SSTs off the west coast of Mexico and the associated record atmospheric water vapor amounts that flowed into Colorado as a result were instrumental in the event, and it probably would not have occurred without human-caused warming. Such an increase in atmospheric water vapor becomes concentrated when focused by topography, as it did in Boulder, and further amplified on the ground as water drains into channels and rivers. This suggests an important role for human-caused warming in those Boulder floods.”


Figure 3. There's a car under here somewhere! A Maryland resident digs out after Snowmageddon. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

3) Snowmaggedon, 2010
On February 5 - 6, 2010, an incredible snowstorm dubbed “Snowmaggedon” hammered Washington DC and the mid-Atlantic states, burying them under 1 - 3 feet of snow. While the blizzard was not an exceptionally strong storm--the central pressure was a rather unimpressive 986 mb at the height of the blizzard--it was an exceptionally wet storm. The melted equivalent precipitation for the blizzard exceeded three inches along its core snow belt, a phenomenal amount of moisture for a winter storm. The blizzard formed a very unstable region aloft where thunderstorms were able to build, and there were many reports of thundersnow with snowfall rates of 2 - 3 inches per hour. The authors claim that unusually high SSTs in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (1.5 °C above normal) led to an exceptional amount of moisture flowing into the storm, which resulted in very large amounts of snow. While the storm was in the right place at the right time to generate a large amount of snow, the new paper argues that the extreme snowfall amounts were magnified by ocean temperatures made warmer by climate change.


Figure 4. An infrared VIIRS image of the eye of Haiyan taken at 16:19 UTC November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was at peak strength with 195 mph sustained winds. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

4) Super Typhoon Haiyan, 2013
Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the Central Philippines on November 8, 2013, as one of the strongest tropical cyclones in world history, with peak surface winds estimated at 195 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Haiyan killed over 7,700 people and did at least $13 billion in damage, making it the costliest and deadliest disaster in Philippine history, and Earth's deadliest natural disaster of 2013. The new study notes that oceanic heat content (OHC) and sea level had both risen significantly in the region since 1998 as a result of the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. “Consequently, as the typhoon approached the Philippines, it was riding on very high SSTs with very deep support through the high OHC, and the strong winds and ocean mixing did not cause as much cooling as would normally be experienced, probably helping the storm to maintain its tremendous strength,” write the authors. “Moreover, the storm surge was undoubtedly exacerbated considerably by the sea levels, which were some 30 cm [12”] above 1993 values. Although natural variability through the PDO played a major role, there is also a global component through increased OHC from the Earth’s energy imbalance."

Climate Change Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update!

Quoting 422. sar2401:

And here's the discussion form Birmingham. Notice the lack of words like "major, "pattern", or "shift". :-)

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (THU/FRI) WILL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH FURTHER BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGING
AS A SURFACE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCH BACK DOWN CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL READINGS. ON SATURDAY...
MODELS ATTEMPT TO PUSH THIS SURFACE FRONT THROUGH PART/MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRI/SAT AHEAD OF
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT COOLER READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES. HOW MUCH SO DEPENDS ON THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AT
SOME POINT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DECENT RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THAT SHOULD SET UP GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO HELP USHER THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT
DOES STALL. IN THE FAR EXTENDED ON MON/TUE AN UPPER EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AS WELL AS THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...ONLY LOW
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE FORECAST.


If that front stalls out in Southern Alabama like they are thinking NW Florida should see some much needed rain, bring it please!
From previous blog

The 00z and 06z Navgem are showing some potential setup in the BOC..

00z run had the moisture moving towards the east while the 06z has the moisture moving north towards Texas..

06z


00z
From previous blog

Quoting 157. Xandra:

From the Big Story:

Top doctors' prescription for feverish planet: Cut out coal


FILE- In this April 3, 2014, file photo, giant machines dig for brown coal at the open-cast mining Garzweiler near the city of Grevenbroich, western Germany. A global health commission organized by the prestigious British medical journal Lancet recommended in a report published Monday, June 22, 2015, substituting cleaner energy worldwide for coal will reduce air pollution and give Earth a better chance at avoiding dangerous climate change. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Some top international doctors and public health experts have issued an urgent prescription for a feverish planet Earth: Get off coal as soon as possible.

Substituting cleaner energy worldwide for coal will reduce air pollution and give Earth a better chance at avoiding dangerous climate change, recommended a global health commission organized by the prestigious British medical journal Lancet. The panel said hundreds of thousands of lives each year are at stake and global warming "threatens to undermine the last half century of gains in development and global health."

It's like a cigarette smoker with lung problems: Doctors can treat the disease, but the first thing that has to be done is to get the patient to stop smoking, or in this case get off coal in the next five years, commission officials said in interviews.

"The prescription for patient Earth is that we've got a limited amount of time to fix things," said commission co-chairman Dr. Anthony Costello, a pediatrician and director of the Global Health Institute at the University College of London. "We've got a real challenge particularly with carbon pollution."

He called it a "medical emergency" that could eventually dwarf the deadly toll of HIV in the 1980s. He and others said burning coal does more than warm the Earth, but causes even more deaths from other types of air pollution that hurt people's breathing and hearts.

Read more >>

-----

Online:

The Lancet: http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/climate-chang e

LIVE NOW: Health experts discuss @TheLancet Commission on Health and Climate's new report.

FXUS62 KJAX 231516
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1116 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.UPDATE...MAKING A SUBSTANTIAL UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SE GA. FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR TREND WITH
DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA...
AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS NE FL WHERE FULL HEATING OCCURRING.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE FROM COASTAL SE GA
TO SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL FORECAST TO DRIFT SE. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SEA BREEZES SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH BETTER LATE AFTERNOON COVERAGE
I-10 SOUTHWARD. KJAX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING DECENT SW
FLOW IN LOWEST GATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVEMENT TO JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR IN SE
GA...WHEN IT COMES TO HIGH TEMP FORECAST. LOWERED HIGH TEMP
FORECAST TO LOW 90S FOR NOW...WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF HEATING TO REACH THAT.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 75 97 75 / 70 40 40 30
SSI 92 79 91 78 / 30 30 30 20
JAX 96 75 95 76 / 50 50 40 20
SGJ 92 76 90 76 / 40 40 30 20
GNV 96 74 94 74 / 60 60 50 20
OCF 95 74 94 75 / 60 60 40 20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF//
Fascinating read. I remember the forecasted tracks for Sandy back in 2012 resisted curving her back towards the NW. I remember when they started to agree that it was really happening, I remember watching the TV and thinking, "Well there's something I've never seen before."

Dr. Masters and Bob Henson:

Because warmer temperatures and increased water vapor have influenced the whole of Earth’s atmosphere, Trenberth and colleagues start with the premise that every storm is influenced by climate change to at least some extent. “The environment in which all weather events occur is not what he used to be,” their new paper states. At the same time, they agree that no storm is entirely a result of climate change: “...it is not possible to attribute a single climate extreme event, which by definition is unique and which has a large element of chance in its occurrence, to a specific cause.”


As a 30-year old registered Republican, I wonder if there isn't a more accurate description of what will very likely be a top-5 defining issue of my generation. I never heard of Mr. Trenberth, but he seems to identify very clearly and succinctly what seems to be going on..
From last blog

Quoting 419. ricderr:

ok....whew....at least the worst performing of the models hasn't let us down......yet....





Umm no

Quoting 2. 69Viking:

Thanks for the update!



If that front stalls out in Southern Alabama like they are thinking NW Florida should see some much needed rain, bring it please!
We can only hope. The front, or what remains of it, is forecast to push back north on Tuesday as a warm front. That will reduce our chance for rain back to climatology - 20% to 30%. If we are to get any real rain, we need some kind of tropical system. There's really no other mechanism that will provide any significant rain down here in July.
North Korea’s Dark Secret: ‘100-Year Drought’ Is Knocking Out Its Power Supply

An unusually dry 2014 followed by an arid spring this spring has crippled the North Korea power supply, some 60 percent of which is estimated to come from hydropower generation, according to The Washington Post. Low water levels have pushed the cash-strapped and secretive country to paralyzing electricity shortages.

Link
I do not agree





I say it will peak at 1.5 at the very most 1.6/1.7 then it's drops off
Umm no


kid....the corrected version has gone up from just under 1.8 now at 1.9.....not near as exciting as the uncorrected version though...but one of the few models...that is rising while most others are trending lower
I say it will peak at 1.5 at the very most 1.6/1.7 then it's drops off


i'm not one for calling out numbers...same as with number of hurricanes in a season...i gifure...that if these folks are spending millions upon millions and they can't get the numbers right.....what am i as a rank amateur going to do...but have a lucky guess once in awhile....once you get into that mode....well....it's like the guy that said it would be classified as strong in june....now july....and on and on and on........i personally like to post trends...and what's odd......and facts....i'm kind of big on facts...sometimes that puts me in the minority....i can live with that though
thanx for the post doc and bob.....what i'm surprised about...is the lack of comments concerning alaska........heat records both daily and all time are being broken....wildfires are blanketing the state and their glaciers are melting at an alarming rate
Quoting 7. wunderkidcayman:

From last blog



Umm no


Wunderkidcayman you will be expecting WU mail shortly, check it.
Excellent blog post and links, Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. I read the paper yesterday, and it's very readable (i.e., not loaded with statistics, higher math equations, models, etc.).

I was not able to reaccess it today via the link in the Guardian, however. (Note - I was able to access it yesterday.) It seems there's a time limit or something to access. So for anyone who wants to read it, I suggest you do it in one sitting. No worries, though, it's only about 5 pages or so :-)
Thanks for the new blog Gentlemen.

I was on SR 34 in and all about Estes Park last Thursday, the damage is still very evident, and some bridges still have not been fixed. Many roads were recently repaired in Rocky mountain Nation Park too...Our driver who took us to white water raft on the Colorado River, picked us up at Estes High School. He gave a lengthy account of the flood as the four Waterkeepers in the van were very interested. He said the were trapped for days as all the egress/ingress routes were washed away. Estes Park is like a postcard when viewed from the surrounding mountains.
Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson -

"A matrix created in 2012 for UCAR/NCAR AtmosNews..."

This link from the main blog post links back to today's blog post, not to the intended matrix.
Quoting 13. ricderr:

thanx for the post doc and bob.....what i'm surprised about...is the lack of comments concerning alaska........heat records both daily and all time are being broken....wildfires are blanketing the state and their glaciers are melting at an alarming rate


I wonder about that too. It is almost always front page news in the local paper here.

And it was 82F in Deadhorse, AK the other day, which was an all time record. Deadhorse is located NORTH of the arctic circle. 'Perma'frost is melting that hasn't melted in who knows how long. Of course when it melts it releases previously trapped CO2 and methane gasses.

There are communities in the far north that have refrigerated food for thousands of years by digging holes into the permafrost and now their food is spoiling because it is getting too warm.

And I haven't brought up the melting glaciers yet.
Quoting 15. LAbonbon:

Excellent blog post and links, Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. I read the paper yesterday, and it's very readable (i.e., not loaded with statistics, higher math equations, models, etc.).

I was not able to reaccess it today via the link in the Guardian, however. It seems there's a time limit or something to access. So for anyone who wants to read it, I suggest you do it in one sitting. No worries, though, it's only about 5 pages or so :-)
I don't know what the deal is with the Guardian. It seems to log your IP address and only give you a limited amount of hits before you have to subscribe. The article was really good though. The uncertainty is how much climate change has contributed to any single event, not if climate change has contributed at all. While we can't ignore circulation dynamics, this gives us an additional way to look at weather events and at least start to assign some numbers based on climate change. As I've posted before, my rainfall pattern is so odd and unusual since May that something in the atmosphere seems to have changed. How much we can attribute to climate change compared to natural variability is not known, but some portion has to be because we have a warmer, more water vapor loaded atmosphere.
Weak sun could offset some global warming in Europe and US – study

Regional impact of a weaker solar cycle likely to be larger than global effect, with only minimal impact on worldwide temperature rises caused by climate change

Global warming in northern Europe and the eastern US could be partially offset in future winters because of the sun entering a weaker cycle similar to the one which enabled frost fairs to take place on the river Thames in the 17th and 18th century, according to new research.


Link
Quoting 16. indianrivguy:

Thanks for the new blog Gentlemen.

I was on SR 34 in and all about Estes Park last Thursday, the damage is still very evident, and some bridges still have not been fixed. Many roads were recently repaired in Rocky mountain Nation Park too...Our driver who took us to white water raft on the Colorado River, picked us up at Estes High School. He gave a lengthy account of the flood as the four Waterkeepers in the van were very interested. He said the were trapped for days as all the egress/ingress routes were washed away. Estes Park is like a postcard when viewed from the surrounding mountains.


One of the most beautiful places in the lower forty eight .. been there several times .. was sad to see the destruction from the flooding !!
Quoting 17. LAbonbon:

Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson -

"A matrix created in 2012 for UCAR/NCAR AtmosNews..."

This link from the main blog post links back to today's blog post, not to the intended matrix.


Whoops! Goober in the code. It's now fixed. Here's the direct link.
Quoting 18. Dakster:



I wonder about that too. It is almost always front page news in the local paper here.

And it was 82F in Deadhorse, AK the other day, which was an all time record. Deadhorse is located NORTH of the arctic circle. 'Perma'frost is melting that hasn't melted in who knows how long. Of course when it melts it releases previously trapped CO2 and methane gasses.

There are communities in the far north that have refrigerated food for thousands of years by digging holes into the permafrost and now their food is spoiling because it is getting too warm.

And I haven't brought up the melting glaciers yet.
To be fair, however, Deadhorse reliable weather records only go back to 1999, so it's relatively easy to set an all time record. Even with that caveat, the average high in June is only 46, so a temperature of 82 is stunning no matter how you look at.
That new post was a lot to digest. With all due respect to the referenced study by Trenberth, and his four events based upon the thermodynamic issues (but a good start), we are only starting to scratch the surface in terms of global weather issues and how any particular variable, geographic area/region, specific event etc. will be impacted. You started the post with your own reference to the snow issues in New England/Boston this past Winter; irrespective of the jet stream issue, you noted on here (as well as on TWC) that the warmer gulf stream waters off the New England coast, contributed to some of the large snowfalls in New England (the baroclinic forcing issue) along that huge coastal swatch. I would argue that the New England snows were a combination of the jet stream pattern, and the warmer gulf stream ssts, both being affected by arctic sea ice loss and warming sst's in Northern latitudes.

My point being that we are living in a remarkable "weather" period as these changes occur and we are able to bring modern scientific technology to bear to study the impacts in each section of the planet in the coming decades. While many people accuse scientists, and the media of cherry-picking events (such as the 4 listed in this study), I think that the "list" is going to grow much longer in the coming years as we document all of the changes presently occurring due to a warming planet. It's going to take some time to put all this data together both prospectively in terms of modelling and retro-actively to the data we have been collecting for the past 50 years.
“Worst Fire Conditions On Record” — As Heatwaves, Drought Bake North American West, Wildfires Erupt From California to Alaska

There are 146 wildfires burning in Alaska today. A total that is likely to see at least another dozen blazes added to it by midnight. A total that has already absorbed the entire firefighting capacity of the State and has drawn hundreds of firefighters from across the country in places as far away as Pennsylvania.

For Alaska, it’s a case of record heat and dryness generating fuels for wildfires.


Link
Quoting 12. ricderr:

I say it will peak at 1.5 at the very most 1.6/1.7 then it's drops off


i'm not one for calling out numbers...same as with number of hurricanes in a season...i gifure...that if these folks are spending millions upon millions and they can't get the numbers right.....what am i as a rank amateur going to do...but have a lucky guess once in awhile....once you get into that mode....well....it's like the guy that said it would be classified as strong in june....now july....and on and on and on........i personally like to post trends...and what's odd......and facts....i'm kind of big on facts...sometimes that puts me in the minority....i can live with that though
Or classified as strong in July, 2014. Let's face it, predicting the strength of an El Nino is way harder than predicting the intensity of a hurricane, and we're not too good at that either. If you're married to a forecast, on either side of the question , there's always some graph somewhere that agrees with your notion. El Nino is going to do what it's going to do, and we should know what that really is along about October.
I come in peace:

satellite image

Quoting 19. sar2401:

I don't know what the deal is with the Guardian. It seems to log your IP address and only give you a limited amount of hits before you have to subscribe. The article was really good though. The uncertainty is how much climate change has contributed to any single event, not if climate change has contributed at all. While we can't ignore circulation dynamics, this gives us an additional way to look at weather events and at least start to assign some numbers based on climate change. As I've posted before, my rainfall pattern is so odd and unusual since May that something in the atmosphere seems to have changed. How much we can attribute to climate change compared to natural variability is not known, but some portion has to be because we have a warmer, more water vapor loaded atmosphere.

Regarding the Guardian - I haven't experienced that yet. I'm on there quite a bit, so I hope that doesn't happen. I have been blocked/limited by the Boston Globe at times, and have come close to the 'free' limit with the NY Times. Love Brian's articles, but when I see NYT in the link I always have to think if I really want to read the article, 'cause I know I'll be edging up to the monthly limit.

I think I was not allowed reaccess due to Nature's rules. The article itself is paywalled, but there's apparently temporary (?) access via the Guardian article through their (Nature's) content sharing initiative. I was able to access it yesterday (twice, I think), but not today.
Quoting 19. sar2401:

I don't know what the deal is with the Guardian. It seems to log your IP address and only give you a limited amount of hits before you have to subscribe. The article was really good though. The uncertainty is how much climate change has contributed to any single event, not if climate change has contributed at all. While we can't ignore circulation dynamics, this gives us an additional way to look at weather events and at least start to assign some numbers based on climate change. As I've posted before, my rainfall pattern is so odd and unusual since May that something in the atmosphere seems to have changed. How much we can attribute to climate change compared to natural variability is not known, but some portion has to be because we have a warmer, more water vapor loaded atmosphere.


It reminds me of something many of us were saying here after the recent record floods (and many took issue with). It isn't if, it's how much.
excellent update

thanks
have a good day
Quoting 8. sar2401:

We can only hope. The front, or what remains of it, is forecast to push back north on Tuesday as a warm front. That will reduce our chance for rain back to climatology - 20% to 30%. If we are to get any real rain, we need some kind of tropical system. There's really no other mechanism that will provide any significant rain down here in July.


I agree, hopefully we'll both get some much needed rain from this front before it pushes back North. I'm not hoping for anything devastating from the Tropics but I would love a weak tropical storm to pay us a visit!
the humid air has move along rainy thundering night till dawn

rain total for the month of june now at 169.1 mm
with 7 days too go

month ends with a cool down over the lower lakes with showers the last few days or so
From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for June 23, 2015:

Fire and Smoke in San Bernardino National Forest


natural color


short-wave infrared

Fueled by hot, dry winds, the Lake fire has been spreading through California's San Bernardino National Forest. The blaze, located about 130 kilometers (80 miles) east of Los Angeles, was first reported on June 17, 2015, and grew quickly on June 18. By the afternoon of June 22, the fire had burned 70 square kilometers (17,305 acres) and was 21 percent contained.

Read more (includes a sliding 'image comparison tool')
Just remember, every single weather event on Earth is affected by climate change. Denying so is absurd and would literally be denying the climate itself. Certainly this manifests itself much more in extreme events like Sandy and Haiyan than in everyday weather though. Those extremes are really the only places we can tangibly see the impact, and even then significant research must be done to determine just how much of a role the warmer climate played.

I'm hoping to see a thunderstorm today... but so far this year haven't had much luck.

Quoting 35. MAweatherboy1:

Just remember, every single weather event on Earth is affected by climate change. Denying so is absurd and would literally be denying the climate itself. Certainly this manifests itself much more in extreme events like Sandy and Haiyan than in everyday weather though. Those extremes are really the only places we can tangibly see the impact, and even then significant research must be done to determine just how much of a role the warmer climate played.

I'm hoping to see a thunderstorm today... but so far this year haven't had much luck.




we had heavy thunderstorms all night till just after 4 am this morning
started around 10pm last night then the second wave came over
and trailed till 4 am nice cool down underway now
with stiff breeze from nw with falling temps
down too mid 50's for lows tonight be nice
Quoting 23. BobHenson:



Whoops! Goober in the code. It's now fixed. Here's the direct link.


It is Hot in Mayberry Mr. Henson,

Ethyl or Regular?


SEVERE STORMS IN MIDWEST: A tornado destroyed a neighborhood outside of Chicago
Thanks for the interesting read, Doc 'n Bob!

BTW, I'm currently studying a printout of the Pope's encyclical on environment and climate change. Requires some time to do it carefully, uff.

More worrisome reading matter:

Society Risks Mid-Century Collapse From Climate-Driven Food Shortages
by Joe Romm, Posted on June 23, 2015 at 10:55 am
New research supported by the United Kingdom's Foreign Office and insurer Lloyd's of London finds that, absent major changes, humanity risks a catastrophic collapse in its ability to feed itself by mid-century, due in significant part to human-caused climate change. ...
Michigan tornado destroys buildings, trapping people

A tornado in Portland, Michigan damaged about 70 homes, a dozen businesses, and three churches Monday afternoon, according to city officials. Authorities also said they're grateful there were no major injuries or fatalities.
Quoting 13. ricderr:

thanx for the post doc and bob.....what i'm surprised about...is the lack of comments concerning alaska........heat records both daily and all time are being broken....wildfires are blanketing the state and their glaciers are melting at an alarming rate


Maybe there will be a blog article here about the situation in Alaska after the story unfolds further. The story may be just beginning.
Quoting 24. sar2401:

To be fair, however, Deadhorse reliable weather records only go back to 1999, so it's relatively easy to set an all time record. Even with that caveat, the average high in June is only 46, so a temperature of 82 is stunning no matter how you look at.


The WU POR begins on Friday, June 22, 1973

Link
Quoting 14. Climate175:

Wunderkidcayman you will be expecting WU mail shortly, check it.


You got mail

Quoting 27. sar2401:

Or classified as strong in July, 2014. Let's face it, predicting the strength of an El Nino is way harder than predicting the intensity of a hurricane, and we're not too good at that either. If you're married to a forecast, on either side of the question , there's always some graph somewhere that agrees with your notion. El Nino is going to do what it's going to do, and we should know what that really is along about October.


Yep I much rather be predicting hurricanes lol

Well Sept/Oct yeah
Quoting 16. indianrivguy:

Thanks for the new blog Gentlemen.

I was on SR 34 in and all about Estes Park last Thursday, the damage is still very evident, and some bridges still have not been fixed. Many roads were recently repaired in Rocky mountain Nation Park too...Our driver who took us to white water raft on the Colorado River, picked us up at Estes High School. He gave a lengthy account of the flood as the four Waterkeepers in the van were very interested. He said the were trapped for days as all the egress/ingress routes were washed away. Estes Park is like a postcard when viewed from the surrounding mountains.
July 31 1976......over 130 lost their lives in that very area.
.

Here is a actual local link and images of the Illinois Tornado in Coal City as well as the others

Severe storms 'decimated' Woodhaven Lakes, a private campground spanning 1,800 acres, in Sublette, Ill.
STORMS WIPES OUT CAMPGROUND

Assistant Fire Chief Kevin Schultz said damage to Woodhaven Lakes, a private, 1800-acre campground in Sublette, Ill., was worse than he anticipated. An 80-member search and rescue team is searching for people who may have been trapped.

"At this point in time, the best word to describe it is 'decimated.' There are trailers in trees. There are trailers upside down. We have liquefied petroleum gas that is in the trees. It is the worst thing I have ever seen," Schultz said.

Five people were injured during the storm, Schultz said.

"We did transport one person to the hospital and we have four walking wounded that were treated by the paramedics or EMTs at the scene and refused care," Schultz said.

Richard Bolin was camping at Woodhaven when the tornado struck.

"Total devastation. All my neighbors have trees down on all their campers. I got lucky. I have my boat and my camper here. Missed all of my stuff by inches. I drove down here from the Fairdale, Kirkland area because we just had a major tornado there. I wanted to see what it was like. It was exactly like that," Bolin said.

Woodhaven is closed to the public while officials search. Sublette, located in Lee County, is 100 miles west of Chicago.

COAL CITY DAMAGE 'EERILY SIMILAR' TO 2013

Around 10p.m. Monday, Coal City was struck by a tornado, the second in just under two years. The city of around 5,000 is located about 60 miles southwest of Chicago.

Wilmington Fire Protection District Deputy Chief Todd Friddle said five people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries overnight. There have been no reports of fatalities.

Many survivors were pulled from their basements, Friddle said, once rescue teams were able to get to them. More than 35 agencies responded. A secondary search is scheduled for Tuesday to make sure everyone is accounted for.

Residents said they heard tornado sirens go off and took cover. Later, they heard a deafening roar as the twister moved overhead.

"I looked out the back door and stuff started blasting the house. So, I ran for the bathroom. I came out ten minutes later and... smashed," Matthew Richardson said.

"All the trees are down, all the power lines are gone. My neighbor's roof is gone. My cars are buried. Power lines are on my car. My wife's car is surrounded by 100-year-old oak trees. I lost probably five trees. My roof is leaking in three different places," Glenn Root said.

Coal City Mayor Terry Halliday said the tornado formed near Coal City High School on the west side of town and moved southeast.

Fire Station No. 2 was struck by lightning during the storm, which caused a communications tower to fall on the building. But emergency crews were able to respond out of the station soon after the damage occurred.

"It's eerily close to the damage we saw about a year and a half ago," Friddle added.

Many of the roads leading into Coal City are blocked Tuesday morning because it is too dangerous to go in. Workers are walking through the rubble to assess damage. They said some buildings were wiped out entirely and there are natural gas leaks in many homes. Overhead wires are hanging low enough to connect with larger vehicles.

In the 700-block of West Daisy Place, flooding now threatens the area.

"Mainly witho our rakes and manpower, just to clear all the debris. You know, shingles, woods, rags. All sorts of junk," Gezim Bakir, Coal City maintenance worker, said.

"Glass everywhere. The doors were blown open, the windows were blown out. My brother-in-law said, 'I think everything's OK.' Then he turned and saw our front yard. He said, 'My van's in the middle of your front yard!'" Kim Doglio said. She said her family realizes it could have been much worst.

"I'm very thankful that my kids weren't in bed. My daughter's room, had she been in bed, she would probably not be here. There's just glass shattered all over the bed. Big shards of glass," she said.

Friddle said many Coal City emergency workers' homes were damaged by the tornado, including that of the fire chief.

"We start from the bottom and go up. Work with the trees and debris. Get this city cleaned up," Bakir said.

HOW TO HELP

An emergency shelter was established at Coal City High School at 650 West Division Street for residents in need. The American Red Cross and United Methodist Church are coordinating efforts to help them.

Fritz said a hotline (815-518-3047) will be available around 9:30 a.m. to connect volunteers with affected residents. Volunteers will be welcome once the area is deemed safe.

The Community Foundation of Grundy County's website has further information about how people can help. Mayor Halliday said cash donations will be the best way to assist affected residents.

The Grundy County Community Organizations Active in Disaster Facebook page will also be used to coordinate volunteers and donations.
Quoting 42. DCSwithunderscores:



Maybe there will be a blog article here about the situation in Alaska after the story unfolds further. The story may be just beginning.


From the Alaska State Website: http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/cc-ak.htm

Climate change describes the variation in Earth's global and regional atmosphere over time. These changes are likely caused by a combination of natural processes and activities. The rise in the Earth's average surface temperature is known as global warming. Scientists attribute the accelerating rate of global warming to manmade greenhouse gas emissions.

Global warming is currently impacting Alaska and will continue to impact it a number of ways. These impacts include melting polar ice, the retreat of glaciers, increasing storm intensity, wildfires, coastal flooding, droughts, crop failures, loss of habitat and threatened plant and animal species.

According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) scientists, in April 2014, a new record low snow cover extent for the satellite era (1967-2014) occurred in Eurasia and, in September 2014, minimum sea ice extent was the 6th lowest in the satellite record (1979-2014). But, in 2014, there were modest increases in the age and thickness of sea ice relative to 2013. The eight lowest sea ice extents since 1979 have occurred in the last eight years (2007-2014).

Less ice means more open water - which means greater absorption of solar energy - which leads to increased warming in the ocean, and in turn accelerates more ice loss. This has led to a wide range of impacts in Alaska, including:

    melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and flooding of coastal communities. Warming of oceans and melting of land-based ice increases the volume of ocean water. Loss of sea-ice cover changes habitat for arctic species and leaves coastal communities more exposed to larger waves generated by severe storms.
    thawing permafrost, increased storm severity, and related infrastructure damage to roads, utility infrastructure, pipelines and buildings. Extremes in weather patterns, precipitation and rising sea levels will affect safe water sources in villages, and contributes to increased erosion along Alaska coasts and rivers and undermines Alaska boreal forests.
    loss of the subsistence way of life as animal habitat and migration patterns shift and as hunting and fishing become more dangerous with changing sea and river ice. Warming streams and increased silt from melting glaciers affect fish habitat. Boreal forests advance northward and to higher elevations, displacing tundra. Invasive species compete with native vegetation. Humans, animals and plants may be exposed to new infectious diseases as habitat changes.
    forest fires and insect infestations increasing in frequency and intensity. In the past decade, Alaska has witnessed a record loss of forests to fires and spruce bark beetles.
Quoting 29. LAbonbon:


Regarding the Guardian - I haven't experienced that yet. I'm on there quite a bit, so I hope that doesn't happen. I have been blocked/limited by the Boston Globe at times, and have come close to the 'free' limit with the NY Times. Love Brian's articles, but when I see NYT in the link I always have to think if I really want to read the article, 'cause I know I'll be edging up to the monthly limit.

I think I was not allowed reaccess due to Nature's rules. The article itself is paywalled, but there's apparently temporary (?) access via the Guardian article through their (Nature's) content sharing initiative. I was able to access it yesterday (twice, I think), but not today.
I think you're right about access to the article. Seems Nature magnanimously granted free access for one day and now it's behind the paywall again. The authors both work for NCAR, which is supported by the taxpayer. I can't access the funding information, but I'll guess that most of it came from the taxpayer. The taxpayer ought to be able to read the results. This is the kind of thing one executive order could solve, and it would certainly be a good way for more people to become in involved in what's going on with the climate change. I emailed the White House about this a couple months ago and got the standard "Thanks very much for your email, we value your input..bla, bla, bla" reply. I wonder how many emails to the Pres are even summarized by the staff for him to read? Sure, who am I kidding...
...psssssst'

Alaska Heat Wave 2015

About 2,270,000 results (0.56 seconds)


This map shows the record heat northwestern Canada and parts of Alaska experienced in the third week of May.

Photo credit: NASA Earth Observatory
51. vis0
CREDIT:: (NOAA)UNISYS
D&T:: on aniGif
IMAGERY::Enhanced-ir (colours not a UNISYS product, changed to pop differences in cloud tops, but they did all the hard work)
AOi:: Bahamas, GoMx, area just above UNISYS logo moving at different speed heading SSW & NE/SE
image host
(as not to confuse AOi = Area of influence,
AOI = Area of Interest
i remember them as to think of the "I" in Interest as if it where an exclamation point, !NTEREST! as something of interest to me leans towards excitement.

save this comment a rare uppercase i by itself typed by vis0 ...oooooooaaaaaaaahhhhh.

oh look another system off the coast ya know what that means the dreaded e404...already 2 times this AM though only for a min...quick someone connect a loop of no big weather happening to sar2401s Internet connection till next Sinday
Sinday???...Sunday, Mon, Tue, Humpday, Chkday, TGIF then Sinday...for orthodox gentiles only.

Temperature outlook for Seville in Southern Spain; hope our WU-member PlazaRed who lives nearby is prepared for maybe 43C (109F) this weekend or even 46C (115F) the next one! Some of this so called "Spanish Plume" may reach out for Germany next week as well (although not that hot).

Quoting 45. hydrus:

July 31 1976......over 130 lost their lives in that very area.
Big Thompson Canyon. We were visiting my son in Boulder the weekend before the flood and decided Big Thompson would be a nice weekend camping trip. It was hotter than blue blazes in Boulder, and Big Thompson offered a nice change. I was standing on the banks of the creek after we set up camp and I thought to myself this would be a really bad place to get trapped in a flash flood. Thank goodness it was the weekend before.
Quoting 21. ColoradoBob1:

Weak sun could offset some global warming in Europe and US – study

Regional impact of a weaker solar cycle likely to be larger than global effect, with only minimal impact on worldwide temperature rises caused by climate change

Global warming in northern Europe and the eastern US could be partially offset in future winters because of the sun entering a weaker cycle similar to the one which enabled frost fairs to take place on the river Thames in the 17th and 18th century, according to new research.


Link


Regional:




Global (Source SkS):


The global mean temperature difference is shown for the time period 1900 to 2100 for the IPCC A2 emissions scenario (relative to zero for the average temperature during the years 1961 to 1990). The red line shows predicted temperature change for the current level of solar activity, the blue line shows predicted temperature change for solar activity at the much lower level of the Maunder Minimum, and the black line shows observed temperatures from the NASA GISS dataset through 2010. Adapted from Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010).
How far do reliable records go back to for Fairbanks?

It's been hot there at times too.

Even here in Anchorage we broke a heat record by several degrees F at times. Thankfully, it is now a little cooler out - but we are forecasted to stay at the hot end of "normal" weather until September. Granted, I take temp. forecasts that far out like I take a 2 week hurricane landfall forecast.
Quoting 51. vis0:

CREDIT:: (NOAA)UNISYS
D&T:: on aniGif
IMAGERY::Enhanced-ir (colours not a UNISYS product, changed to pop differences in cloud tops, but they did all the hard work)
AOi:: Bahamas, GoMx, area just above UNISYS logo moving at different speed heading SSW & NE/SE
image host
(as not to confuse AOi = Area of influence,
AOI = Area of Interest
i remember them as to think of the "I" in Interest as if it where an exclamation point, !NTEREST! as something of interest to me leans towards excitement.

save this comment a rare uppercase i by itself typed by vis0 ...oooooooaaaaaaaahhhhh.

oh look another system off the coast ya know what that means the dreaded e404...already 2 times this AM though only for a min...quick someone connect a loop of no big weather happening to sar2401s Internet connection till next Sinday
Sinday???...Sunday, Mon, Tue, Humpday, Chkday, TGIF then Sinday...for orthodox gentiles only.
Vis, can you slow the pictures down a little? My eyes start to cross trying to follow your green clouds. There actually is a small chance of severe thunderstorms here on Saturday and Sunday. All depends on wen the front gets here and how wimpy it is once it stalls right over my house. :-)
Quoting 6. LongIslandBeaches:

Fascinating read. I remember the forecasted tracks for Sandy back in 2012 resisted curving her back towards the NW. I remember when they started to agree that it was really happening, I remember watching the TV and thinking, "Well there's something I've never seen before."



As a 30-year old registered Republican, I wonder if there isn't a more accurate description of what will very likely be a top-5 defining issue of my generation. I never heard of Mr. Trenberth, but he seems to identify very clearly and succinctly what seems to be going on..


Yeah, no kidding. You'd have to been alive in '38 to experience it's predecessor.
Hurricane Sandy's predecessor, the Great Hurricane of 1938: What can we learn from it?

The last line of the article is appropriate for those who live on any coast, "The lesson is to pay attention to where you build and when you leave."
Hey guys I'm heading to Missouri right now to have some fun, I'm glad that I'm not back in Alabama where my hometown is sitting at 100 degrees.
Quoting 45. hydrus:

July 31 1976......over 130 lost their lives in that very area.

I was living in Estes at the time . Doing leather work didn't sell a thing for the next six months.
61. vis0
THIS LOOP IS OLD from another site i post at, as the hosting sites i use are having upload difficulties so i figured post the old rather than wait for a new upload to end

 all i can think of is it only takes...

NOT ALARMING but lets pay attn. freshen up on TS/flooding preparedness page or NOAAs (would say wxu/Patrap but then it crashes so go to NOAA
image host
people from another country when they see error404 on WxU must think its code for go to the hills or bunker
ULL moving over Yucatan towards TX, expect slight increase in rain coverage by Thursday.
Hmm Tropical Wave in the Caribbean seems to have moved quite quickly WNW Since 06Z and 12Z

Quoting 63. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm Tropical Wave in the Caribbean seems to have moved quite quickly WNW Since 06Z and 12Z




Before wave was along 67W-71W
Quoting 56. Dakster:

How far do reliable records go back to for Fairbanks?
Fronm ThreadEx:

FAIRBANKS CITY SITES: 09/1904 to 06/1911
UNIVERSITY EXP STA: 07/1911 to 11/1929
FAIRBANKS WB: 12/1929 to 06/1948
FAIRBANKS AP: 07/1948 to 08/21/1951
FAIRBANKS INTL ARPT: 08/22/1951 to 12/2014
The warm water blob in the northeast Pacific has kept the Pacific Northwest warmer than normal for most of the last 18 months. Here is what the NWS at Sand Point, Seattle, Washington had to say yesterday, 6/22/15:

".CLIMATE...SEATTLE IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO A RECORD WARM JUNE.
THROUGH THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF THE MONTH THE AVERAGE HIGH HAS BEEN
76.7 DEGREES. THIS IS THE WARMEST FIRST THREE WEEKS OF JUNE ON
RECORD IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES SURPASSING 1969 WITH AN AVERAGE
HIGH OF 75.7 DEGREES. THE RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JUNE IN
TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IS 75.8 DEGREES IN 1992. THE PREDICTED
HEAT WAVE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PUSH THE AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURE
WELL ABOVE THE RECORD. IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURES JUNE IS TIED
SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE 21ST OF
65.8 DEGREES EQUALING THE READINGS FROM 1969. THE NORMAL AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JULY IS 75.8 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE FOR AUGUST
IS 76.3 DEGREES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS JUNE WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH JULY AND AUGUST.

JUNE HAS ALSO BEEN VERY DRY MONTH FOR SEATTLE WITH ONLY 0.22 INCHES
OF PRECIP SO FAR. IF THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH IS DRY THIS WILL END
UP BEING THE 4TH DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE RECORD IS 0.13 INCHES
FROM 1951.

COMBINING MAY AND JUNE THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 7 DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN SEATTLE. THE RECORD FOR THE LEAST NUMBER OF DAYS OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MAY 1ST AND JUNE 30TH IS 9 DAYS SET
IN 1992. FELTON"

In March, 2014 record rains fell across western Washington state leading to the Oso mudslide and the loss of 43 lives.
Quoting 62. RitaEvac:

ULL moving over Yucatan towards TX, expect slight increase in rain coverage by Thursday.

Huh

You mean the ULL that's over the Yucatan is moving towards TX

The models show the ULL a moving N-NNW weakening to a upper Trof then dissipating altogether before it reaches that area so yeah possibly slight increase in rain coverage
Nino 1&2 @ 2.7C is causing the Caribbean to shutdown with hardly any convection to speak of.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 43m43 minutes ago
GFS has 80+ kt of shear in Carib next wk- EC shows 100! Highest summer value I have ever seen @ChrisLandsea @tuffiewx
Quoting 56. Dakster:

How far do reliable records go back to for Fairbanks?

It's been hot there at times too.

Even here in Anchorage we broke a heat record by several degrees F at times. Thankfully, it is now a little cooler out - but we are forecasted to stay at the hot end of "normal" weather until September. Granted, I take temp. forecasts that far out like I take a 2 week hurricane landfall forecast.
Weather records go back to 1903 in Fairbanks. There's a little dispute about temperature records from 1903 until 1919 though. Seems the first observer hired by the Weather Bureau was an early kind of weather geek. He was a fur trapper that kept detailed records going back to 1895 of weather in his camp, about 20 miles outside Fairbanks. When he heard the Weather Bureau was going to set up an official station and needed an observer, he applied and got the job, partly due to his acknowledged ability to keep good daily records. All was well until the head Weather Bureau guy from Juneau visited the weather station in 1917 and then again in 1919. He noticed the instrument shelter was in a different place in 1919 than 1917 and asked about it. He cheerfully told him that the ground around the shelter got too boggy when warmer weather came, so he moved it to dry ground. He moved it back to its original site in the fall because it was in a sheltered location, making it easier to dig a path to the shelter during the long winters. Poor guy passed away shortly after that last visit, and the new guy was told not to move the instrument shelter around any longer. So I guess we can say reliable records go back to 1920. :-)
Thanks Nea. I thought those records went back further, since Fairbanks was an early gold rush town.
vis..clouds.crashing.ashore.e.nicaraqua
Karachi heatwave death toll climbs 750

Link

Dew point there reached 79F degrees yesterday , with 105 F for the high.
It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com


Very high convective parameters across interior FL this afternoon. Could be a very intense Sea Breeze collision near I-4 this evening.

Interesting story Sar and I don't doubt it. At least the records in FBX go back almost 100 years.
Quoting 59. TCweatherman:

Hey guys I'm heading to Missouri right now to have some fun, I'm glad that I'm not back in Alabama where my hometown is sitting at 100 degrees.
Yes, it's quite miserable here. Temperature at my house is 101 now with a dewpoint of 76. The humidity is 37%, which converts to a THI of 109.1. I hope you're having nicer weather there than back home. This is the kind of weather that makes a summer vacation in Baghdad seem not so bad. :-)
Quoting 72. ColoradoBob1:

Karachi heatwave death toll climbs 750

Link

Dew point there reached 79F degrees yesterday , with 105 F for the high.


94 here with a 78 dewpoint at the moment. Literally like walking into a oven outside. Very miserable to say the least.
Quoting 75. Dakster:

Interesting story Sar and I don't doubt it. At least the records in FBX go back almost 100 years.
Yeah, somehow, it's the kind of thing you'd expect in Fairbanks. Apparently the townsfolk really couldn't understand the issue since the instrument shelter was only moved about 50 feet. Seemed close enough to them.
Currently here at the S. Shore of Lake P.

91.7 °F
Feels Like 111 °F

Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:



94 here with a 78 dewpoint at the moment. Literally like walking into a oven outside. Very miserable to say the least.


87 here in Fort Pierce but feels like 98. Thank you sea breeze. Alas, all storms are moving inland.
Quoting 81. rmbjoe1954:



87 here in Fort Pierce but feels like 98. Thank you sea breeze. Alas, all storms are moving inland.


Hang in there man pattern shift late week should move storms back to the coast.

GFS 10 day precip accum.


12z Navgem

Grayling Army Airfield Michigan
temp 62
dewpoint 53

Grayling Alaska is 61
Quoting 72. ColoradoBob1:

Karachi heatwave death toll climbs 750

Link

Dew point there reached 79F degrees yesterday , with 105 F for the high.

Umm. A nightmare. The poor people! When I read things like this I always remember our awful European heatwave in 2003. And I become concerned whenever the outlook for us shows open end temperatures in the nineties Fahrenheit without any rains ...
Another article on Pakistan: Heatwave crisis: PM calls for emergency measures as death toll reaches 700
12z UKMET

768

WTNT80 EGRR 231617



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.06.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 35.5N 75.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.06.2015 35.5N 75.4W WEAK

12UTC 28.06.2015 36.6N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.06.2015 38.6N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.06.2015 40.9N 72.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 19.4N 15.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.06.2015 20.0N 16.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 231617





SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH ISSUANCE SEEMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
The Atlantic 'conveyor belt' and climate: 10 years of the RAPID project

A global project that's been instrumental in shaping scientists' understanding of how the oceans affect our climate celebrated its tenth birthday recently.

A new paper published in Science looks back at 10 years of the RAPID project, which has been keeping tabs on how heat moves around in the Atlantic Ocean since 2004.


Link
Quoting 60. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 45. hydrus:

July 31 1976......over 130 lost their lives in that very area.

I was living in Estes at the time . Doing leather work didn't sell a thing for the next six months.
I imagine that disaster was not good for business...I was helping my Father fix up on old wooden sail boat....And helping him do surveys....Not long after cleaning up after Hurricane Belle.
Good afternoon, everyone.

Gotta say I was smiling from ear to ear yesterday when we got socked with a nasty thunderstorm in the N Chas area. It immediately dropped our temps by 20 degrees, and allowed us to breathe again.

I honestly cannot recall the last time we had 100 degree temps this many days in a row in Charleston. This heat has been nothing short of brutal.
Quoting 84. TroutMadness:

Grayling Army Airfield Michigan
temp 62
dewpoint 53

Grayling Alaska is 61


Just rub it in why don't you!
Quoting 85. barbamz:


Umm. A nightmare. The poor people! When I read things like this I always remember our awful European heatwave in 2003. And I become concerned whenever the outlook for us shows open end temperatures in the nineties Fahrenheit without any rains ...
Another article on Pakistan: Heatwave crisis: PM calls for emergency measures as death toll reaches 700


Clearly we're approaching the "wet bulb" tipping point in India and Pakistan .
Quoting 90. nash36:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Gotta say I was smiling from ear to ear yesterday when we got socked with a nasty thunderstorm in the N Chas area. It immediately dropped our temps by 20 degrees, and allowed us to breathe again.

I honestly cannot recall the last time we had 100 degree temps this many days in a row in Charleston. This heat has been nothing short of brutal.


Hard to do in Orlando but we hit 100 last Friday for the first time since 1998. Oddly enough the 1997 & 1998 Summer's where very hot here which both years either was entering or exiting from a Strong El-Nino.
from the NWS Slidell disco



Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Tuesday Jun 23 2015/ 

Short term...
another apparently hot day with temperatures reaching the middle 90s
and heat index values in the 100 to 105 range today. This is due
to persistent ridging aloft across the Lower Plains and Gulf
states. Temperatures are only averaging 2-3 degrees above normal
for this time of the month and heat index values should fall
short of 108f criteria for heat advisory issuance. Typical
cautionary measures would be prudently applied today and again
Thursday. Some relief with Gulf Breeze front during the afternoon
which may feature enhanced convective integrity to warrant
marginal risk of severe storminess along the Mississippi
coast...mainly strong wet microbursts as primary threat.

Long term...
the main feature during the extended portion will be a breakdown
of the heat-bearing ridge over the weekend with large scale
troughing taking place over the eastern half of the U.S. This will
bring a surface cold front Saturday to break the streak of hotter
days. The frontogenetic forcing should aid in enhancing rain
chances and convective integrity with Gulf Breeze interactions
Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday may see a brief disruption
of the daily land-sea breeze process but recover in earnest
Tuesday as frontal boundary decays but general trouginess
persists. Models are indicating a wet period in the days 7-9
range that could go a long way in keeping temperatures on the
cooler than normal side due to extensive cloud cover and rainfall
coverage. This particular pattern would favor early onset
thunderstorms that maintain an extensive period of anvil decay
stratiform rains well into the late afternoon before dissipating
after sunset. Model concensus on temperatures were used this
package...which was clearly cooler than lately and cooler than
normal heading into the opening days of July. 24/rr
Quoting 87. Articuno:




SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH ISSUANCE SEEMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.



Convective parameters are showing high CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg, MULI very negative, and steep lower to mid level lapse rates, which should make for a interesting afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Quoting 95. Drakoen:



Convective parameters are showing high CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg, MULI very negative, and steep lower to mid level lapse rates, which should make for a interesting afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The first storms should reach the area by 4pm.
Well, at least the high pressure is keeping it cooler. ;) Nice to see the PWAT down for a change though.
artly Cloudy
92°F
33°C
Humidity 52%
Wind Speed SE 8 mph
Barometer 30.15 in (1020.7 mb)
Dewpoint 72°F (22°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 100°F (38°C)
Last update 23 Jun 12:53 pm CDT

FOR THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND .50 INCHES. TODAY
WILL SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX FROM 98 TO ABOUT 104 DEGREES. THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER
PATTERN TO HOLD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN AND INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL BLOCK MOISTURE FROM MOVING INLAND ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO POOL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
Wxrisk is saying we will see a progressive derecho tonight, and he even changed his profile pic to the June 2012 derecho. He said he changed his profile pic because is giving a sign. He is known to go overboard sometimes, but we have to see at least what happens over the next few hours with the storms.
Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:

Very high convective parameters across interior FL this afternoon. Could be a very intense Sea Breeze collision near I-4 this evening.




Storms starting to pop over a good portion of Florida today, better than I've seen in a long time!
Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:

Very high convective parameters across interior FL this afternoon. Could be a very intense Sea Breeze collision near I-4 this evening.



Boy i hope so...
Quoting 84. TroutMadness:

Grayling Army Airfield Michigan
temp 62
dewpoint 53

Grayling Alaska is 61


We got 64 today, in southern Scotland, which was very pleasant after a week in the mid 50s.
Quoting 77. sar2401:

Yes, it's quite miserable here. Temperature at my house is 101 now with a dewpoint of 76. The humidity is 37%, which converts to a THI of 109.1. I hope you're having nicer weather there than back home. This is the kind of weather that makes a summer vacation in Baghdad seem not so bad. :-)


You need one of those storms popping up inland to cool you down!
Quoting 98. Climate175:

Wxrisk is saying we will see a progressive derecho tonight, and he even changed his profile pic to the June 2012 derecho. He said he changed his profile pic because is giving a sign. He is known to go overboard sometimes, but we have to see at least what happens over the next few hours.


its beginning lots of popups forming in the heat now

we went from 79 humidex 90 at 9 am this morning
to 69.5 now with next to no humidex with nice nw winds
gusting to 50 55 kmh at times
69.1 now steady drop saying 52 to 55 for overnight low here might get a little cooler maybe
Quoting 96. Climate175:

The first storms should reach the area by 4pm.


Always perfectly timed with rush hour. Beltway nightmare.
Quoting 94. Patrap:

from the NWS Slidell disco



Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Tuesday Jun 23 2015/ 

Short term...
another apparently hot day with temperatures reaching the middle 90s
and heat index values in the 100 to 105 range today. This is due
to persistent ridging aloft across the Lower Plains and Gulf
states. Temperatures are only averaging 2-3 degrees above normal
for this time of the month and heat index values should fall
short of 108f criteria for heat advisory issuance. Typical
cautionary measures would be prudently applied today and again
Thursday. Some relief with Gulf Breeze front during the afternoon
which may feature enhanced convective integrity to warrant
marginal risk of severe storminess along the Mississippi
coast...mainly strong wet microbursts as primary threat.

Long term...
the main feature during the extended portion will be a breakdown
of the heat-bearing ridge over the weekend with large scale
troughing taking place over the eastern half of the U.S. This will
bring a surface cold front Saturday to break the streak of hotter
days. The frontogenetic forcing should aid in enhancing rain
chances and convective integrity with Gulf Breeze interactions
Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday may see a brief disruption
of the daily land-sea breeze process but recover in earnest
Tuesday as frontal boundary decays but general trouginess
persists. Models are indicating a wet period in the days 7-9
range that could go a long way in keeping temperatures on the
cooler than normal side due to extensive cloud cover and rainfall
coverage. This particular pattern would favor early onset
thunderstorms that maintain an extensive period of anvil decay
stratiform rains well into the late afternoon before dissipating
after sunset. Model concensus on temperatures were used this
package...which was clearly cooler than lately and cooler than
normal heading into the opening days of July. 24/rr



Great news for those of us who have been baking in the SE, bad news for the NW as they'll now see a heat wave while we cool down.
strong surface high pressure in the MDR will preclude any tropical activity in the next 2 weeks
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



its beginning lots of popups forming in the heat now

we went from 79 humidex 90 at 9 am this morning
to 69.5 now with next to no humidex with nice nw winds
gusting to 50 55 kmh at times
Do you think the line of storms will be strong enough to be classified as a progressive derecho? He also said it could be a Bow Echo or that.
Quoting 52. barbamz:


Temperature outlook for Seville in Southern Spain; hope our WU-member PlazaRed who lives nearby is prepared for maybe 43C (109F) this weekend or even 46C (115F) the next one! Some of this so called "Spanish Plume" may reach out for Germany next week as well (although not that hot).



Thanks for that Barb.
The BBC gets this:-

Link

25/C at the moment with a bit of a wind.
If we get 43/C+ with a bit of a wind then it will be like the worlds biggest hairdryer! Not to even think of or mention the forest fires.

The whole west coast of North America is probably now in danger from fires as well, there was a good link maybe from Colorado Bob earlier about that.

I'll try and write a few posts if the heat gets really bad but my Internet connection is very poor after he thunder storms last week. Needless to say there have been a lot of Thunder storms with 10s of thousands of lightning strikes here in Spain over the last 2 weeks.
Quoting 105. Drakoen:



Always perfectly timed with rush hour. Beltway nightmare.
I know, also assuming how strong it could potentially become.
Future Chan-hom is looking well.


Quoting 105. Drakoen:



Always perfectly timed with rush hour. Beltway nightmare.


Rush "hour" here is a large target from about 3:30 to 8PM and the horrid core from 4:30 to 7PM.
Quoting 113. georgevandenberghe:



Rush "hour" here is a large target from about 3:30 to 8PM and the horrid core from 4:30 to 7PM.

4pm-8pm is the general timeframe, so that is not gonna be good oh.
Quoting 109. Climate175:

Do you think the line of storms will be strong enough to be classified as a progressive derecho? He also said it could be a Bow Echo or that.


I don't think so
we will know
in the next hr or so
how well everything
blows up if it does

thinking storm front sharp shift with gusts then quick temp and airmass change
This is really ironic , since they were just it by a 300 mm storm over the weekend.

New Zealand Scientists Complain Of Gagging Over Climate Change Issues

A coalition of New Zealand scientists on Monday warned that restrictions on government funding and stringent media regulations were silencing them from providing serious inputs to the government's climate change policies, and that they were effectively being gagged.

Link
Quoting 95. Drakoen:



Convective parameters are showing high CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg, MULI very negative, and steep lower to mid level lapse rates, which should make for a interesting afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Hey Drak! I haven't seen you for a while.
Looking like we almost got the whole Mid-Atlantic team in here, hopefully Washi will come soon.
Quoting 113. georgevandenberghe:



Rush "hour" here is a large target from about 3:30 to 8PM and the horrid core from 4:30 to 7PM.



Yes it is. I've come to realize that having been here for 6 months now.

my temps continue to fall 68.7 down from 69.1 last 30 mins
anyone have another link for the paper? The one at The Guardian is still paywalled.
Quoting 108. stoormfury:

strong surface high pressure in the MDR will preclude any tropical activity in the next 2 weeks


Get any rain in St Lucia from that wave? looked like it went north of yall
Quoting 117. ColoradoBob1:

This is really ironic , since they were just it by a 300 mm storm over the weekend.

New Zealand Scientists Complain Of Gagging Over Climate Change Issues

A coalition of New Zealand scientists on Monday warned that restrictions on government funding and stringent media regulations were silencing them from providing serious inputs to the government's climate change policies, and that they were effectively being gagged.

Link

The New Zealand town of Wanganui got some serious storms in the last few days.
Bearing in mind its mid winters day over there right now.
The Wanganui river got over its banks according to a news site I saw but I don't unfortunately have a link too.
mmmm, gotta love summer.

Should be plenty of energy for storms tonight.

official airport temp

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday 23 June 2015
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:68.9°F
Dewpoint:56.8°F
Humidity:65%
Wind:WNW 23 gust 31 mph
Quoting 99. 69Viking:



Storms starting to pop over a good portion of Florida today, better than I've seen in a long time!
Lots of storms from central Georgia stretch all the way toward Mobile There are several warnings out for storms in the Albany GA area and one near Foley AL. Slow moving storms in the Panhandle from Blountstown to FWB, and a couple look like they may go to severe. Lots of action today, even if it's not near Disney World. I, of course, have no storms near me, with a current temperature of 102. Have you noticed less haze than normal down your way? This kind of hot weather usually produces haze with visibilities of 5 miles or less. I've got 15 mile visibility now.

126. PlazaRed
North Island storm damage: Heartbreak of worst-ever floods

The flooding, described as a one in 85-year event, is the worst ever recorded in Whanganui - worse even than the lower North Island flooding of 2004, which led to more than $140 million in insurance claim payouts.

Link
Quoting 124. terstorm:

anyone have another link for the paper? The one at The Guardian is still paywalled.
No, I'm afraid not. It was only open access yesterday and now it's jailed again. I'd like to corner whomever's in charge at Nature and bop him one.
Scott-
What do you think about that wave that appears east of the Bahamas. You think we can get some rain out of it here in Florida or will it just fizzle out?
Quoting 102. 69Viking:



You need one of those storms popping up inland to cool you down!


I asked Radar Dog what he thought our rain chances are...

tw.39w...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/36W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W.
Quoting 133. rmbjoe1954:

Scott-
What do you think about that wave that appears east of the Bahamas. You think we can get some rain out of it here in Florida or will it just fizzle out.
Psst, Joe...there are actual experts over at NHC talking about the wave. Look at the rainfall totals in the islands so far and give it your best guess about how strong that wave is in terms of it getting over to you.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
26N67W...TO THE ACKLINS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO JAMAICA AND 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RAWINSONDE DATA...TPW AND 700 MB
DATA...AND UNIV. OF ALBANY TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO NORTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.70 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64
IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.21 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.
Quoting 127. VAbeachhurricanes:

mmmm, gotta love summer.

Should be plenty of energy for storms tonight.


It's even 99 in Richmond now. That's screamin' hot weather for you. It's bad enough ion Alabama but at least we're kind of ready for it. I don't think it hits 100 up your way too often. I had big plans for working in the yard today. As you can tell from me being here posting, that lasted about 10 minutes. :-)
The heat index in some places is over 105, oh the wonders of summer.
Link Real-Time lightning strikes.
Quoting 130. sar2401:

Lots of storms from central Georgia stretch all the way toward Mobile There are several warnings out for storms in the Albany GA area and one near Foley AL. Slow moving storms in the Panhandle from Blountstown to FWB, and a couple look like they may go to severe. Lots of action today, even if it's not near Disney World. I, of course, have no storms near me, with a current temperature of 102. Have you noticed less haze than normal down your way? This kind of hot weather usually produces haze with visibilities of 5 miles or less. I've got 15 mile visibility now.


We have haze but it's a result of controlled burns on the Eglin Range to our North.
Quoting 105. Drakoen:



Always perfectly timed with rush hour. Beltway nightmare.


I just got back from spending a week up in the Richmond, Washington D.C. and Baltimore area. I told my sister I would only last a couple weeks before I would have to move. The traffic was absolutely horrible even at 1 pm in the afternoon. I was born in Washington D.C. and still have a lot of friends in the area. On the highway just north of Richmond we averaged 20 mph most of the way and there were no wrecks or anything. My sister just said it was normal traffic.
Oh and the people drive like they never passed their driver's licence test.
Another day, another Heat Advisory in effect.

Quoting 139. Climate175:

Link Real-Time lightning strikes.


Cool lightning map
This heat is doing the most, it is bringing bees, butterflies, and flies you would have never even heard off. I remember last year the heat brought out a rare moth.
big time lightning at my house wow!!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
OCALA...OCALA AIRPORT...REDDICK...MCINTOSH...LOWELL AND FLEMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for New Haven County, CT
Until 9pm EDT, Tue, Jun 23
Affected Areas
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Tue, Jun 23, 3:38 pm EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN CONNECTICUT THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON
IN NEW JERSEY THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION
IN NEW YORK THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
BRONX KINGS (BROOKLYN) NASSAU NEW YORK


now to 9pm not 4pm anymore new update on this severe weather box
Only good thing is in 6-8 months, this El-Nino gonna be providing.
watch out if you live in ct big severe weather will hit the state soon
Quoting 146. LargoFl:


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
OCALA...OCALA AIRPORT...REDDICK...MCINTOSH...LOWELL AND FLEMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.




It still amazes me how much rain can be dropped from isolated slow moving thunderstorms that pop up in afternoon heating in Florida!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for New Haven County, CT
Until 9pm EDT, Tue, Jun 23
Affected Areas
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Tue, Jun 23, 3:38 pm EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN CONNECTICUT THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON
IN NEW JERSEY THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION
IN NEW YORK THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
BRONX KINGS (BROOKLYN) NASSAU NEW YORK


now to 9pm not 4pm anymore new update on this severe weather box


watch out here
Quoting 140. 69Viking:



We have haze but it's a result of controlled burns on the Eglin Range to our North.
The ag burning has stopped up here so that's no longer a problem. Ever since the heat wave began, visibilities have been better than average, and much better than average for a typical summer day. We have plenty of humidity, light winds, and a fairly stagnant air mass. I have no idea why we're not seeing more haze. Maybe it's those solar flares...or something. Beell probably knows. :-)
A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of S New England until 11 PM.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
247 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

FLC005-013-133-232145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FA.Y.0017.150623T1947Z-150623T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
WASHINGTON FL-CALHOUN FL-BAY FL-
247 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 247 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BETTS...YOUNGSTOWN...MOOSE POND...GAINER SPRING...SAUNDERS...PORTER
LAKE...CAMPS HEAD...BENNETT...CENTER LAKE...CAMP FLOWERS...SINGER
ROAD AND FOUNTAIN.
Quoting 151. 69Viking:



It still amazes me how much rain can be dropped from isolated slow moving thunderstorms that pop up in afternoon heating in Florida!
yes it sure is, whew I had a good one earlier over my city..stayed still for over an hour just dumping pouring rain on us.
Quoting 122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my temps continue to fall 68.7 down from 69.1 last 30 mins


64F where I am at. supposed to get down to 44F at one point today.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of S New England until 11 PM.

ntil 4:30pm EDT, Tue, Jun 23
Affected Areas
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Tue, Jun 23, 3:44 pm EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 430 PM EDT
* AT 343 PM EDT... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR YORKTOWN HEIGHTS... OR NEAR MOUNT KISCO... AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRIDGEPORT... STAMFORD... NORWALK... DANBURY... WHITE PLAINS... MILFORD... SHELTON... NAUGATUCK... OSSINING... PEEKSKILL... SOUTHBURY... NEW CANAAN... TARRYTOWN... MOUNT KISCO... DOBBS FERRY... SHERMAN... BREWSTER... NEWTOWN... NORTH TARRYTOWN AND MAHOPAC.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION... MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CONNECTICUT
MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS
FAR SOUTHERN MAINE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCORD
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO 10 MILES WEST OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...WW
343...WW 344...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
so how HOT is it really in florida?..a viewer terry sent this in to baynews9 LOL...great pic..............
Tornado Watch for Suffolk County, MA
Until 11pm EDT, Tue, Jun 23
Affected Areas
Issued by The National Weather Service
Boston, MA
Tue, Jun 23, 3:49 pm EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 345 UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN CONNECTICUT THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT
HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM
IN MASSACHUSETTS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
WORCESTER
IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
MIDDLESEX NORFOLK SUFFOLK
IN NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
ESSEX
IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BRISTOL PLYMOUTH
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE
IN RHODE ISLAND THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
BRISTOL KENT PROVIDENCE
IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
NEWPORT WASHINGTON
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... BLOCK ISLAND... BOSTON... BRISTOL... BROCKTON... FALL RIVER... FITCHBURG... FOXBORO... FRAMINGHAM... GLOUCESTER... GREENFIELD... HARTFORD... LAWRENCE... LOWELL... NEW BEDFORD... NEWPORT... NORTHAMPTON... PLYMOUTH... PROVIDENCE... PUTNAM... QUINCY... SPRINGFIELD... TAUNTON... UNION... VERNON... WARWICK... WESTERLY... WILLIMANTIC AND WORCESTER.
Quoting 137. sar2401:

It's even 99 in Richmond now. That's screamin' hot weather for you. It's bad enough ion Alabama but at least we're kind of ready for it. I don't think it hits 100 up your way too often. I had big plans for working in the yard today. As you can tell from me being here posting, that lasted about 10 minutes. :-)


Yeah hitting 100 is rare here because the ocean usually moderates it, but winds out of the southwest usual work to negate that affect. It is awful haha
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Another day, another Heat Advisory in effect.




Your NWS office is much more liberal with the heat advisories than up here.
Quoting 141. Sfloridacat5:



I just got back from spending a week up in the Richmond, Washington D.C. and Baltimore area. I told my sister I would only last a couple weeks before I would have to move. The traffic was absolutely horrible even at 1 pm in the afternoon. I was born in Washington D.C. and still have a lot of friends in the area. On the highway just north of Richmond we averaged 20 mph most of the way and there were no wrecks or anything. My sister just said it was normal traffic.
Oh and the people drive like they never passed their driver's licence test.
You sound like me every time I visit the SF Bay Area. I had to put up with it for 25 years if I wanted to earn a living, but it took a lot out of me too. Typical afternoon commute was two hours crawling the entire way. That's just if there were no wrecks. Then it was three hours...or four hours. God forbid it should actually be raining. There would be flipped over Beemers littering the road. Highway 101 is the only freeway in the North Bay, and the only road of any kind that runs continuously south to north. If something goes wrong, you just have to sit there until it's fixed. I spent a lot of the commute contemplating how I could fake some kind of illness and go on disability. :-)
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 3:44 PM EDT on June 23, 2015

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
western New Haven County in southern Connecticut...
Putnam County in southeastern New York...
Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* until 430 PM EDT

* at 343 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated an area of severe
thunderstorms capable of producing destructive winds in excess of
60 mph. These storms are located near Yorktown Heights... or near
Mount Kisco... and moving east at 60 mph. Penny size hail may also
accompany the damaging winds.

* Locations impacted include...
Bridgeport... Stamford... Norwalk... Danbury... White Plains...
Milford... Shelton... Naugatuck... Ossining... Peekskill... Southbury...
New Canaan... Tarrytown... Mount Kisco... Dobbs Ferry... Sherman...
Brewster... Newtown... North Tarrytown and Mahopac.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds... destructive hail...
deadly lightning and very heavy rain. For your protection... move to
an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy
rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water
covers the Road.


Lat... Lon 4149 7344 4151 7339 4147 7331 4149 7333
4151 7316 4156 7312 4124 7297 4120 7301
4115 7310 4117 7318 4108 7339 4099 7389
4114 7389 4133 7398 4140 7394 4151 7376
4153 7353 4166 7350
time... Mot... loc 1943z 256deg 60kt 4126 7371


maybe going to a Tornado warning soon
Quoting 161. LargoFl:

so how HOT is it really in florida?..a viewer terry sent this in to baynews9 LOL...great pic..............
BWAhahaha...That looks like me after 10 minutes in the yard.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

FLZ033-037-038-232045-
FLAGLER FL-ST. JOHNS FL-PUTNAM FL-
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WELAKA TO NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESCENT CITY...POMONA PARK...HASTINGS...ANDALUSIA...EAST PALATKA...
SATSUMA...SAN MATEO...ORANGE MILLS...CRESCENT BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE
SHORES...DUPONT CENTER...SPUDS...ELKTON AND LAKE COMO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...AND WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL RISK
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BALTIMORE MARYLAND TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...WW
344...WW 345...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...GOSS
Quoting 165. VAbeachhurricanes:



Your NWS office is much more liberal with the heat advisories than up here.

They're issued here when heat indices are expected to exceed 105F. Seems like a good criteria to me. Maybe yours is too conservative? :)
Quoting 161. LargoFl:

so how HOT is it really in florida?..a viewer terry sent this in to baynews9 LOL...great pic..............


Im going to guess Scott rolled over it this morning ducking from the police..
Quoting 171. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They're issued here when heat indices are expected to exceed 105F. Seems like a good criteria to me. Maybe yours is too conservative? :)


Probably heat index is over 110 here in most areas and we don't have one.
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:


That QPF is even more crazed that usual. How the heck did I go from a half inch on the last update to 2 plus inches on this one? I don't think things have changed that drastically in six hours.
Quoting 176. sar2401:

That QPF is even more crazed that usual. How the heck did I go from a half inch on the last update to 2 plus inches on this one? I don't think things have changed that drastically in six hours.


I'm just going to pray it holds true, NW Florida is looking for a good amount of rain if that holds true!
Quoting 171. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They're issued here when heat indices are expected to exceed 105F. Seems like a good criteria to me. Maybe yours is too conservative? :)
Some offices just don't seem to like issuing heat advisories. Tallahassee issued a heat advisory that included Henry County, the one adjoining my county to the south, at 2:57 yesterday afternoon. BMX finally issued one for my county at 5:03 am this morning. This has been a very consistent pattern, where Tallahasse will issue a weather warning for the counties near me and BMX either plays catch up or never issues a warning. Same thing extends even to severe thunderstorm warnings. BMX is very conservative issuing any kind of statement while Tallahasse does it at the drop of a hat. A happy medium would be nice.
Quoting 161. LargoFl:

so how HOT is it really in florida?..a viewer terry sent this in to baynews9 LOL...great pic..............
That's one of those "humorous" pictures that gets passed around from time to time (here it is from 2013).

Hyuk-hyuk-hyuk....
i saw lightning outside and heavy rain in new haven,conn
Quoting 178. BaltimoreBrian:

Rising temperature, falling pressure. Storms-a-comin?
You've got a trough just about to pass through Baltimore. That has maximized the SE flow, hence the hot temperatures for you, while the approaching trough has dropped the barometer. Relief is on the way, something I can only dream of.
Quoting 177. 69Viking:



I'm just going to pray it holds true, NW Florida is looking for a good amount of rain if that holds true!
It would sure be nice, but I suspect we go back to half an inch on the next update. I assume the model is reacting to the GFS's aggressive precip for the weekend. I can't see how the front could possibly cause that much rain over our area. The QPF forecasts are almost useless for me.
Quoting 158. Dakster:



64F where I am at. supposed to get down to 44F at one point today.

89.1F here in Jurupa Valley, forecast is 92....
Quoting 176. sar2401:

That QPF is even more crazed that usual. How the heck did I go from a half inch on the last update to 2 plus inches on this one? I don't think things have changed that drastically in six hours.


I think the models are fine tuning the location of the stalled front.
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:




WPC rainfall forecasts are goofy, the NWS has one day with a 50% chance of rain in southern Michigan, the others with no rain chances, in eastern NC, the NWS has 40-50% most days. Here the NWS has 40-50 most days, yet the WPC qpf doesn't appear anything like the local NWS depiction.

Obviously qpf and precip chance probability are two different things. However, not that drastically, especially since locally when it rains in this area, it's at least a fairly heavy total most of the time.

More than likely, the local NWS forecast is a more accurate depiction of what actual rainfall not that map. I know, I'm a pretty strong critic of the national WPC precip forecast map, but it's for good reason.


Quoting 185. PedleyCA:


89.1F here in Jurupa Valley, forecast is 92....


Hey Ped. How goes it?

Still dry out?


Hopefully some of these thunderstorms back build toward Tampa. It's been pretty dry for me the last 7-10 days. Storms keep missing my location.
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:




This unfortunately looks plausible for DC metro this weekend since we'll be just
to the north of a stalled front with disturbances on it and my sodden soil will stay sodden.
But a very pronounced cooldown also looks very likely with maybe even a rainy day in the 60s.
I'll take that.
Boooma'

Quoting 188. Dakster:



Hey Ped. How goes it?

Still dry out?


YUP, nothing much in the forecast, cooling down a bit soon... Off to Costco...
Quoting 171. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They're issued here when heat indices are expected to exceed 105F. Seems like a good criteria to me. Maybe yours is too conservative? :)


DC criterion is 105F for heat advisory in summer months. It used to be 98F in June because of concern about lack of acclimation but that's either changed or they figure that THIS year we're already acclimated.
No this is definitely going to happen because they are not going to get to my roof for a few more days...

Quoting 176. sar2401:

That QPF is even more crazed that usual. How the heck did I go from a half inch on the last update to 2 plus inches on this one? I don't think things have changed that drastically in six hours.
DC criterion is 105F for heat advisory in summer months. It used to be 98F in June because of concern about lack of acclimation but that's either changed or they figure that THIS year we're already acclimated.

But are there snowballs being tossed around the Senate Chamber ?
Hot Blob #2 Takes Aim at Sea Ice — Abnormally Warm Waters Invading the Arctic Through Bering and Chukchi

A lot of attention has been paid to a ‘Blob’ of unusual warmth at the ocean surface in the Northeastern Pacific. And for good reason, for that Blob of human-warmed water has had wide-ranging negative impacts on both weather and sea life. Now there’s a second hot Blob forming in the Bering and Chukchi seas. One that may also have some rather significant effects as the summer of 2015 continues.

Abnormally Warm Waters Running Toward the Sea Ice

Hot Blob #2 is a vast stretch of warm water covering the Bering and Chukchi seas between Alaska and Kamchatka (Neven, in his most recent sea ice summary, touched on this building warm water zone here). It encompasses surface waters in an usually frigid region that now feature temperatures ranging from 3 to 5.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Covering an area roughly 800 miles in diameter, this pool of outlandishly warm ocean waters is being fed by currents running up from the south and by heat bleeding off Alaskan and Siberian land masses. In this case, land masses that are also experiencing record heat.


Link
Quoting 192. PedleyCA:



YUP, nothing much in the forecast, cooling down a bit soon... Off to Costco...


No BJs in California? I have a membership to both as there are no BJs in Alaska, but there are plenty in Florida. Along wiht Costco's.

Don't burn yourself in the 90+ degree heat.
Quoting 21. ColoradoBob1:

Weak sun could offset some global warming in Europe and US – study

Regional impact of a weaker solar cycle likely to be larger than global effect, with only minimal impact on worldwide temperature rises caused by climate change

Global warming in northern Europe and the eastern US could be partially offset in future winters because of the sun entering a weaker cycle similar to the one which enabled frost fairs to take place on the river Thames in the 17th and 18th century, according to new research.


Link


Quoting:
IPCC Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

2.3.3 Was there a "Little Ice Age" and a "Medieval Warm Period"?

The terms "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" have been used to describe two past climate epochs in Europe and neighbouring regions during roughly the 17th to 19th and 11th to 14th centuries, respectively. The timing, however, of these cold and warm periods has recently been demonstrated to vary geographically over the globe in a considerable way (Bradley and Jones, 1993; Hughes and Diaz, 1994; Crowley and Lowery, 2000). Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the 20th century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia (Grove and Switsur, 1994). However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation (see Bradley, 1999). Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this timeframe, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries. With the more widespread proxy data and multi-proxy reconstructions of temperature change now available, the spatial and temporal character of these putative climate epochs can be reassessed.
"

The Maunder minimum came at the end of the euro-centered "Little Ice Age", which evidence points to as being local and not global. So given those two observations, it seems likely that a repeat episode of low solar activity (similar to the Maunder Minimum) will have only a small effect on the climate, especially compared to the effects of the BAU scenario of greenhouse gas emissions.
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southwestern East Baton Rouge Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* until 445 PM CDT

* at 431 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph
. This storm was located over Gardere... or over Oak Hills
Place. This storm was nearly stationary.

* Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge... Port Allen... Oak Hills Place... Shenandoah...
Inniswold... Gardere... Village St. George... Westminster and Old
Jefferson.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds... destructive hail...
deadly lightning and very heavy rain. For your protection... move to
an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy
rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water
covers the Road.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Boy, I just got one to add to the memorable weather events list. Just got out of the basement. Tornado warned storm went right over me. No tornado on the ground- I would've known because it really did go straight over me. Was pretty worried, it was starting to get that look on a few radar frames, but the rotation never tightened enough. It is stil warned though and moving into the South Shore of MA. I was hoping for a storm but that was a bit much...
Quoting 196. ColoradoBob1:

Hot Blob #2 Takes Aim at Sea Ice — Abnormally Warm Waters Invading the Arctic Through Bering and Chukchi

A lot of attention has been paid to a ‘Blob’ of unusual warmth at the ocean surface in the Northeastern Pacific. And for good reason, for that Blob of human-warmed water has had wide-ranging negative impacts on both weather and sea life. Now there’s a second hot Blob forming in the Bering and Chukchi seas. One that may also have some rather significant effects as the summer of 2015 continues.

Abnormally Warm Waters Running Toward the Sea Ice

Hot Blob #2 is a vast stretch of warm water covering the Bering and Chukchi seas between Alaska and Kamchatka (Neven, in his most recent sea ice summary, touched on this building warm water zone here). It encompasses surface waters in an usually frigid region that now feature temperatures ranging from 3 to 5.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Covering an area roughly 800 miles in diameter, this pool of outlandishly warm ocean waters is being fed by currents running up from the south and by heat bleeding off Alaskan and Siberian land masses. In this case, land masses that are also experiencing record heat.


Link



I told you people that one day Blobology would become an important science. I'm just afraid they won't use the Blobcon alerts properly.
Why can't we get a weather warning like this:

The National Weather Service has issued it's an awesome day out in Anchorage. Temps are expected to be mild with bright sunshine. A gentle breeze will be coming off the coast.
102F with humidity at 45% at work during the afternoon. That is a dew point of 77F and a wet-bulb of 83F while printing at up to 800 shirts an hour. The morning had a little higher humidity and temps around 93F. Not quite close to the hottest days I have done, but I think I deserve a prize or something. At least in Key West I could jump into the ocean where temps in the flats go into the upper 90's easily. Oh wait.......

My goal is to be the guy that is waiving when one googles: sweat shops in America.

About the blog:
Well done, watching weather extremes and weather in general around the globe shows that there is a new dynamic in place. I do not think analog years are going to cut the mustard anymore as global warming due to the properties of molecules released by people hit home. Interesting times in place and ahead of us.

Oh yeah, tornado watch in my area! We don't see too many of those!
Haha, it's still hot and unbelievably hazy!! Intresting weather out this way.
Quoting 77. sar2401:

Yes, it's quite miserable here. Temperature at my house is 101 now with a dewpoint of 76. The humidity is 37%, which converts to a THI of 109.1. I hope you're having nicer weather there than back home. This is the kind of weather that makes a summer vacation in Baghdad seem not so bad. :-)
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. AS THE
WAVE CONTINUES ON A WESTERN TRACK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH THE ONLY IMPACT BEING SOME MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION
OF SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN
PENINSULA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS.

Image of the blobs. They could pose a serious threat to countless ecosystems all over. It really is serious and have wide ranging effects.

But the question remains...."How do we know it hasn't been hotter before????"

Getting darker but i have the red wine with beef stroganoff on the table.So I'm chilling and waiting for now for the worst to come over.
Quoting 208. Grothar:

Image of the blobs. They could pose a serious threat to countless ecosystems all over. It really is serious and have wide ranging effects.

But the question remains...."How do we know it hasn't been hotter before????"




Why ask us, o venerable one?



I thought you tutored the Venerable Bede.
Quoting 211. Drakoen:


These storms always blow up close to the city.Looks like nightfall in the house now in rooms I don't have the light on.
213. vis0
my 2cents on my blog cmmnts #112 & #113, again i'm a nut but i hope if SANDY is to be studied that all swirls near the NE of USofA are registered to be studied and if it does not fall in lione with SANDY-aGW then find another cause otherwise by picking & choosing you give ammunition to naysayers when it comes to aGW, like many jumping on BrownO affect as to BILL a theory i sent The Weather Ch in the 1990s but only for flat lands not all the way through Ky, Va. Appalachians. If the BrownO affect is the end all know all for TS making it across land and after 6-10 years someone will discover some errors and some tabloid will have headlines "BrownO affect is . . . ."

WEATHER:: ~6:06PM EDT NYC 27th & 2nd Ave. 6th hail we get on my block (last 6 yrs we get ~11 hail storms, only 2 go city wide, hmm wonder why its so local, (TO BE FAIR its "only" rice to bean sized hail BUT STILL ya now how important it is if someone discovered it was man influenced hail to have rain drops  push up from a device in an apt.)  ...Thunfdersnow also concentraited here,  2009/10-2015 have had ~15 thundersnow storms (i count it if it has more than 3 claps of thunder) most was 2010-11?? had 4.

post the VID tonite sis has to callm friend got out of jail also calling so maybe by 5AM this upcoming Wed. AM VID goes up.
I notice that the scale on the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly charts tops out at 5 deg C. It appears that some areas have hit this wall. Are we due for a new scale?
On the topic of "the blobs":
This an anomaly map from a 1961-1990 baseline that has a little more color to it.



edit: How about the classic El Nino and the cold anomalies around Greenland and Antarctica? I wonder what is going on there?
winking face followed by a smiley face.
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:

Getting darker but i have the red wine with beef stroganoff on the table.So I'm chilling and waiting for now for the worst to come over.

Darn it, Washi, now the can of soup I've been considering for dinner doesn't seem as appetizing...

Had some wind, lightning and a little rain, still some rumbles of thunder, but looks like the stronger stuff slipped by here.
Quoting 212. washingtonian115:

These storms always blow up close to the city.Looks like nightfall in the house now in rooms I don't have the light on.


Probably because the moutains to the west on average are drier and more stable. Since D.C. lies near a bay on the east side of the continent, it allows for higher than normal transport of tropical moisture for it's latitude and convergence with approaching frontal systems and troughs. That's probably why you've noticed that.
    • I've just dogged a bullet
Quoting 189. tampabaymatt:



Hopefully some of these thunderstorms back build toward Tampa. It's been pretty dry for me the last 7-10 days. Storms keep missing my location.

Its been dry at my house for the past few months! about 3 inches for the month of June so far. Like usual, the storms today just to my west where they're getting 2+ inches of rain right now. I have never seen such a dry June here. Either dry everywhere or when there are storms nearby they completely miss me.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO,IL
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR COAL CITY TORNADO


COAL CITY TORNADO RATED AS HIGH-END EF-3

RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 160 MPH
PATH LENGTH: AT LEAST 16.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH MAXIMUM: 3/4 MILE
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: 7

START DATE: JUNE 22 2015
START TIME: 945 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORRIS IL
4 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CARBON HILL IL
START LAT/LON: 41.3083N/-88.3829W

END DATE: JUNE 22 2015
END TIME: 1012 PM CDT
ESTIMATED END LOCATION: 6.9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRAIDWOOD IL
ESTIMATED END LAT/LON: 41.2244N/-88.0895
*TORNADO PATH MAY HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BEYOND APPROXIMATE END LOCATION
AND LATITUDE/LONGITUDE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE REGARDING
THIS SURVEY AND OTHER DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.
Quoting 131. ColoradoBob1:


126. PlazaRed
North Island storm damage: Heartbreak of worst-ever floods

The flooding, described as a one in 85-year event, is the worst ever recorded in Whanganui - worse even than the lower North Island flooding of 2004, which led to more than $140 million in insurance claim payouts.

Link


A country which if it was in the northern hemisphere would reach from Casablanca in Morocco, to Plymouth in the UK, is largely abandoned in its weather and features because of it remote location.
Well; I lived there for a couple of years and its as solid as the Bronx and LA combined with a lot of advantages of wilderness to boot.
We need to take into account a little more what is outside our boundaries of perception and look at all the other people's who will be affected should things get, "out of hand!"

Then again we have to accept that, "things may possibly, get out of hand?"

Quoting 219. sanflee76:


Its been dry at my house for the past few months! about 3 inches for the month of June so far. Like usual, the storms today just to my west where they're getting 2+ inches of rain right now. I have never seen such a dry June here. Either dry everywhere or when there are storms nearby they completely miss me.
I was just on the porch looking east. I can actually see the rain from a good size thunderstorm maybe a quarter mile away. I've had a 29 mph gust that knocked a coax support for my antennas loose. The storm is going to miss me by that much as it moves south. There are warned cells south of me in the Dothan area and east of me in Georgia. I'm depressed.

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
plus image overlay by "The GIMP".

The point is that the European cold period known as the "Little Ice Age" was underway and had reached its minimum before the Maunder Minimum in sunspot activity, so the cold period was likely not caused by a minimum period in the solar cycle.
224. vis0

Quoting 48. sar2401:

I think you're right about access to the article. Seems Nature magnanimously granted free access for one day and now it's behind the paywall again. The authors both work for NCAR, which is supported by the taxpayer. I can't access the funding information, but I'll guess that most of it came from the taxpayer. The taxpayer ought to be able to read the results. This is the kind of thing one executive order could solve, and it would certainly be a good way for more people to become in involved in what's going on with the climate change. I emailed the White House about this a couple months ago and got the standard "Thanks very much for your email, we value your input..bla, bla, bla" reply. I wonder how many emails to the Pres are even summarized by the staff for him to read? Sure, who am I kidding...
Should be AD OVERLAY supported where the first read only ADs are along the side,  you click and open ADS in another page after you read the pg you read the ADs if you try to close the article it reminds you read the ADs you opened. If you never look at those AD pages as to 3 different articles that's stored in their IP account and the next time that ip tries to read an article for the FIRST TIME  POPUPS come up and you are told why.

Via the stored IP, next time you read the same article pop up ADS give you a choice of 6 types of ADS you prefer. Once you open 3 of those ADS
and those AD pages  ARE fully loaded (IF A SLOW CONNECTION PROVISIONS ALLOW THAT ONLY 1 ad HAS TO FULLY LOAD)  AND that AD page is scrolled so the server knows its not a robot reading the AD the article can be read.
If you pay you can download the article.

SITES NEED THE MONEY TO KEEP THEM UP, ITS THE WAY THEY PRESENT THE ARTICLES THAT LIMITS ITS READERS FROM LEARNING/becoming informed WHICH IN THE END HURT MANKIND AND THE SITES WALLET as more people stay away.

MAKE MONEY with a HUMANE TOUCH.
Quoting 216. LAbonbon:


Darn it, Washi, now the can of soup I've been considering for dinner doesn't seem as appetizing...

Had some wind, lightning and a little rain, still some rumbles of thunder, but looks like the stronger stuff slipped by here.
We had a few gust but nothing to abnormal with these storms.They are adding however to the surplus of rain that D.C has been having.After one of the driest May's on record R.N.A has now seen almost 8 inches of rain.I have 8.05 inches of rain so far this month.This storm and the other rain chances over the week will probably get me to the 10 inch mark.
Wash, rinse, repeat...........

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

Excerpt:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT
OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2015

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED MEAN 500-HPA
CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS IS THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS BROADER AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAN THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THIS HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE BROADER RIDGE EXPECTED IN THE 8-14 PERIOD MAY DIMINISH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF ALASKA WHEN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS IN EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6-10 DAYS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LONGER LEAD TIME. CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, REMAINS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
Quoting 208. Grothar:

Image of the blobs. They could pose a serious threat to countless ecosystems all over. It really is serious and have wide ranging effects.

But the question remains...."How do we know it hasn't been hotter before????"




Gro!
I think it best we concentrate on this zone, for a while during the quiet season; maybe there is something about to be going on in this zone? Maybe not; best be prepared as the "scouts say?"
I've been obsessed with it all for months now.

I for one am not at all happy about all this heat in the gulf of Alaska! It does not bode well and the permafrost is succumbing to it as well.
Que Sera, Sera but its not what a lot of people want to expect from an ever forgiving Earth?
Quoting 201. MAweatherboy1:

Boy, I just got one to add to the memorable weather events list. Just got out of the basement. Tornado warned storm went right over me. No tornado on the ground- I would've known because it really did go straight over me. Was pretty worried, it was starting to get that look on a few radar frames, but the rotation never tightened enough. It is stil warned though and moving into the South Shore of MA. I was hoping for a storm but that was a bit much...
Yeah, those things can be pretty scary. At least that rotation didn't tighten up. I spent 15 minutes in the basement a couple of years ago, under a pool table, praying my steel door would hold. Like you say, we want to see storms, but more like a video kind of thing than right in the backyard.
Quoting 226. nrtiwlnvragn:

Wash, rinse, repeat...........

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

Excerpt:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT
OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2015

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED MEAN 500-HPA
CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS IS THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS BROADER AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAN THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THIS HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE BROADER RIDGE EXPECTED IN THE 8-14 PERIOD MAY DIMINISH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF ALASKA WHEN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS IN EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6-10 DAYS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LONGER LEAD TIME. CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, REMAINS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
I take it that means no major pattern shift and that we will still have summer...
18z NAM

231. vis0

Quoting 57. sar2401:

Vis, can you slow the pictures down a little? My eyes start to cross trying to follow your green clouds. There actually is a small chance of severe thunderstorms here on Saturday and Sunday. All depends on wen the front gets here and how wimpy it is once it stalls right over my house. :-)
made an error after promising Grothar9i think) to slow the loops, i thought i ticked 111(over 1 sec per frame) just popped it in my animation ed. its a 1/8 of a second speed geeeesh surprised your eyes didn't bleed, i'v got hummingbirds asking to slow it, i'm sorry for an discomfort and have posted a big stick on not reads::
 2 SECS PER FRAME MAKE SURE

back to observing weather, Florida keep one eye to the west(SSW),  other to the east (SE) other (3rd eye) thinking of when a cooler front will arrive.
Quoting 228. sar2401:

Yeah, those things can be pretty scary. At least that rotation didn't tighten up. I spent 15 minutes in the basement a couple of years ago, under a pool table, praying my steel door would hold. Like you say, we want to see storms, but more like a video kind of thing than right in the backyard.


The words. TORNADO WARNING, TORNADO 6 MILES SW OF HYATTSVILLE MD MOVING NORTHEAST 40MPH
in September 2001 were most alarming since my wife was just picking up the kids and we live in hyattsville. The circulation loosened and passed about a half mile to my west but then tightened, and produced an F3 tornado which cut through the UMD college park campus killing two students. I was very lucky!!

Son George saw a tornado while practicing learners permit driving June 13, 2013. It was weak and dissipated before passing to his south. Ten days later, he drove through dense grape sized hail just southeast of Frederick MD on the way to our relatives in Ohio, again driving for practice.

Oh yeah baby

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 630 PM CDT
for central Okaloosa County...

At 601 PM CDT... the observation station at Duke field Eglin AFB
reported a wind gust of 61 mph.

At 609 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter
size hail and damaging winds over 60 mph was located near
Eglin AFB... moving southeast at 10 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare for large hail and damaging
winds. People outside should move inside a strong building but away
from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately! If you can hear thunder... you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

To report severe weather... call (800) 284-9059.


Lat... Lon 3081 8671 3080 8656 3057 8641 3051 8676
time... Mot... loc 2309z 333deg 7kt 3067 8654
Know it could very well dissipate before getting here but still excited: what a cell!
Quoting 186. tampabaymatt:



I think the models are fine tuning the location of the stalled front.
The base of those WPC forecasts is the GFS. The forecasters at the WPC do a little fine tuning, adjusting out the most wacky stuff from the GFS, but the final product is really a slightly different way at looking at the accumulated precipitation map for the GFS. This is at 168 hours, or seven days. If you compare it to the WPF seven day forecast you can see it's very similar. It's a big problem trying to take data from a model which admittedly is not good at fine details and then trying to make it show those fine details on the QPF map.

Was taking the first driving part of drivers ed today when a storm hit and blew branches on me and apparently a huge oak tree fell a few yards back as well..
So looks like I got tested for a little more than I thought I'd be :P
Watching 16 Candles.Still a classic and has lived up to the test of time.
I was hoping today I would've gotten some hail since that's such a rare occurrence around where I live, it's been years since I've seen severe hail, and at least a year since I've seen hail in general. I know you gotta be careful what you wish for, but it would've been neat.
Since I promised I'd keep you guys up to date on happenings in my life and all, here's a post I made on Facebook about some good news I got in an email last night:

"I'll be hosting a panel at MechaCon in New Orleans next month; Saturday July 18 at 5:00 PM. It's called "The Science of Hurricanes". I'll be teaching people about how hurricanes form, move, and their impacts to land. I really wanted to include tornadoes too, but panel time isn't infinite.

I'll try and have someone record so you guys can get a video of it or something.
"

So yeah. Don't say I don't do anything for guys, lol. Being that it's an anime convention, I was a little surprised it was accepted. I opened up the email expecting it to be denied. Big surprise.

I'll retroactively post the video I get for you guys to enjoy. My voice is sexy though, so try not to go into overload from watching it. ;) ;)
Quoting 213. vis0:

my 2cents on my blog cmmnts #112 & #113, again i'm a nut but i hope if SANDY is to be studied that all swirls near the NE of USofA are registered to be studied and if it does not fall in lione with SANDY-aGW then find another cause otherwise by picking & choosing you give ammunition to naysayers when it comes to aGW, like many jumping on BrownO affect as to BILL a theory i sent The Weather Ch in the 1990s but only for flat lands not all the way through Ky, Va. Appalachians. If the BrownO affect is the end all know all for TS making it across land and after 6-10 years someone will discover some errors and some tabloid will have headlines "BrownO affect is . . . ."

WEATHER:: ~6:06PM EDT NYC 27th & 2nd Ave. 6th hail we get on my block (last 6 yrs we get ~11 hail storms, only 2 go city wide, hmm wonder why its so local, (TO BE FAIR its "only" rice to bean sized hail BUT STILL ya now how important it is if someone discovered it was man influenced hail to have rain drops  push up from a device in an apt.)  ...Thunfdersnow also concentraited here,  2009/10-2015 have had ~15 thundersnow storms (i count it if it has more than 3 claps of thunder) most was 2010-11?? had 4.

post the VID tonite sis has to callm friend got out of jail also calling so maybe by 5AM this upcoming Wed. AM VID goes up.

Greetings Vis..One of the things that always amazed me was how accurate the models were with such a bazaar path...Models did well for such a complex set up.
Quoting 192. PedleyCA:



YUP, nothing much in the forecast, cooling down a bit soon... Off to Costco...

Ped; We really feel for you.; PlazaRed.
Hoping you get at least enough rain to carry you through?

? We have a 6 month drought every year but it normally ends in October! We want yours to end now! As you don't have the October syndrome!?

What a potential mess we are heading into?
From Instagram.com/ABCNews -- Photographer Gary Hershorn captured this stunning lightning spectacle that appears to strike multiple buildings during a severe storm over Hoboken and Jersey City, New Jersey, on Tuesday night.



Giant and powerful anticyclone in the South America this week:


I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.
Ughh......so close
Quoting 238. Articuno:

I was hoping today I would've gotten some hail since that's such a rare occurrence around where I live, it's been years since I've seen severe hail, and at least a year since I've seen hail in general. I know you gotta be careful what you wish for, but it would've been neat.
I've seen hail 5 times in my life so far. The biggest hail so far being marble sized.
Quoting 208. Grothar:

Image of the blobs. They could pose a serious threat to countless ecosystems all over. It really is serious and have wide ranging effects.

But the question remains...."How do we know it hasn't been hotter before????"


faster and faster
Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.
far from nonsense
250. beell
Quoting 180. Neapolitan:

That's one of those "humorous" pictures that gets passed around from time to time (here it is from 2013).

Hyuk-hyuk-hyuk....




wow. i can't believe it's still there.
Quoting 248. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster
OK Keep!
I was going to write a load of contras and other possibility's but I'll stay on the right side of the line and agree that there are not a lot of options?
Either we sink? Or we attempt to swim!
Quoting 233. opal92nwf:

Oh yeah baby

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 630 PM CDT
for central Okaloosa County...

At 601 PM CDT... the observation station at Duke field Eglin AFB
reported a wind gust of 61 mph.

At 609 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter
size hail and damaging winds over 60 mph was located near
Eglin AFB... moving southeast at 10 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare for large hail and damaging
winds. People outside should move inside a strong building but away
from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately! If you can hear thunder... you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

To report severe weather... call (800) 284-9059.


Lat... Lon 3081 8671 3080 8656 3057 8641 3051 8676
time... Mot... loc 2309z 333deg 7kt 3067 8654
These have been windy storms so far. Several of the warned cells up here have had previous reports of 65-70 mph winds. There are a number of reports of damage in the counties just to my south including a couple of structures that were unroofed in Dale County (AL). I had a 29 mph gust just from outflow winds from a storm passing to the east of me. This might be one of those times that having the storms die off before they get to you might be a good thing.
2015-06-22 20:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Peak Wave Period + SST Anomaly

Quoting 250. beell:





wow. i can't believe it's still there.
The road crew said they'll pick it up Friday...or maybe Monday.
Quoting 251. PlazaRed:



when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you should do is quit digging......
Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.
Most of today's article is about weather. You can filter out the "nonsense" if you choose but thinking about what was written isn't a bad idea.
I'm jealous you guys are getting everything while over here it's quite boring.
Quoting 222. sar2401:

I was just on the porch looking east. I can actually see the rain from a good size thunderstorm maybe a quarter mile away. I've had a 29 mph gust that knocked a coax support for my antennas loose. The storm is going to miss me by that much as it moves south. There are warned cells south of me in the Dothan area and east of me in Georgia. I'm depressed.
Quoting 254. sar2401:

The road crew said they'll pick it up Friday...or maybe Monday.


I hope so. It's been there since at least 2012...

Link
Quoting 258. GeoffreyWPB:



I hope so. It's been there since at least 2012...

Link


The plot thins!
Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.

Below is a list of the blogs published so far this month, and their associated tags. Twenty-three blogs in 23 days, four of which wholly or partially discuss climate change. Perhaps fully reading the blogs pertaining to climate change may change your opinion in calling it 'nonsense'. I for one LOVE the variety of the blog topics.

6/23 A New Take on the Human Factor in Recent Extreme Events
(climate change, extreme weather)

6/21 Long-Lived Bill Meets its Demise in Mid-Atlantic
(hurricane)

6/19 Earth has its Warmest May and Warmest Year-to-Date Period on Record
(climate summaries)

6/18 The Poor and the Earth Are Crying: The Pope's Encyclical on Climate Change
(climate change politics, climate change)

6/17 Tropical Depression Bill Still Posing Major Flood Risk
(hurricane)

6/16 Bill Makes Landfall in Texas; Greatest Impact Still to Come
(hurricane)

6/16 Tropical Storm Bill Moving Ashore Over Texas
(hurricane)

6/15 Dangerous Flood Potential in Texas, Oklahoma from Invest 91L
(tropical cyclone, flood, hurricane)

6/13 91L a Heavy Rain Threat for Texas/Louisiana; Hurricane Carlos a Threat to Mexico
(hurricane)

6/12 A Close-Up Look at Last Week%u2019s Perplexing Colorado Twisters
(severe weather, tornado, tropical cyclone)

6/11 El Nino Continues to Ramp Up
(El Nino)

6/11 Tropical Storm Carlos Forms South of Acapulco, Mexico
(hurricane)

6/10 The Climate 25: A Powerhouse Set of Interviews
(climate change)

6/9 May 2015: All-Time Wettest Month on Record for the U.S.
(climate summaries, climate change, flood)

6/8 India's 2nd Deadliest Heat Wave in History Ends as the Monsoon Arrives
(heat)

6/8 Tropical Storm Blanca Hits Baja a Month Earlier Than Their Previous Earliest Landfall
(hurricane)

6/7 Category 1 Hurricane Blanca Losing Strength as it Heads Towards Baja Mexico
(hurricane)

6/6 Hurricane Blanca Regains Category 4 Status
(hurricane)

6/5 Category 2 Hurricane Blanca Headed Towards Baja Mexico
(hurricane)

6/4 Hurricanes Blanca and Andres Set Records For Early-Season Northeast Pacific Activity
(hurricane)

6/3 Yangtze Cruise-Ship Disaster: Among the Worst Thunderstorm Tolls on Record?
(tornado)

6/2 The Amazing Rains of May: Photos and Stats
(flood, extreme weather)

6/1 The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Begins; New CSU, TSR Forecasts Call For a Quiet Season
(not tagged)
Quoting 242. PlazaRed:


Ped; We really feel for you.; PlazaRed.
Hoping you get at least enough rain to carry you through?

? We have a 6 month drought every year but it normally ends in October! We want yours to end now! As you don't have the October syndrome!?

What a potential mess we are heading into?
Actually, the Los Angeles area has a climate very similar to your part of Spain. The rain usually ends sometime in May and then there's no rain at all (except for a TS remnant that sneaks in rarely) until sometime in October. I really used to pray for that first rain to get here after a long, hot, dry, and dusty summer. This pattern is well established in the LA Basin, and even the plants have adapted to the long period of drought. Unfortunately, there are about six million humans there that haven't yet adapted. I wish Ped and the other people living California could get some substantial rainfall this summer. The odds of that happening are about the same as finding a slot machine in Vegas that favors the player and not the house. :-)
Quoting 260. LAbonbon:


Below is a list of the blogs published so far this month, and their associated tags. Twenty-three blogs in 23 days, four of which wholly or partially discuss climate change.


If only evidence had some effect. :)
Quoting 258. GeoffreyWPB:



I hope so. It's been there since at least 2012...

Link
They have to get lunch and a couple of breaks in first. They'll pick it up right after that...probably.

This same cone shows up on 591 sites on the net, according to Google. It's not the best looking traffic cone out there, but it is kind of famous.
Quoting 262. Naga5000:



If only evidence had some effect. :)
Sometimes I'm not sure a 2x4 would have much effect. :-)
Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.

None Sense.
Nonsense?
A sort of state of sense which is sense-less,
Hoping you are above sea level and in sight of high ground?

We may be able to remain in and to be in contact with you for the foreseeable future as long as you continue above the high water line, via this website.
Please state your present above sea level altitude, plus location.

Quoting 261. sar2401:

Actually, the Los Angeles area has a climate very similar to your part of Spain. The rain usually ends sometime in May and then there's no rain at all (except for a TS remnant that sneaks in rarely) until sometime in October. I really used to pray for that first rain to get here after a long, hot, dry, and dusty summer. This pattern is well established in the LA Basin, and even the plants have adapted to the long period of drought. Unfortunately, there are about six million humans there that haven't yet adapted. I wish Ped and the other people living California could get some substantial rainfall this summer. The odds of that happening are about the same as finding a slot machine in Vegas that favors the player and not the house. :-)
SAR ;
You bring a tear to my eye as I head off to bed at 2.30 am European Time.
at least somebody understands.
Quoting 257. TCweatherman:

I'm jealous you guys are getting everything while over here it's quite boring.
I would be too if I got anything. The storm that went east of me went south and one that was north of me has almost completely dissipated. You picked the wrong time for a vacation if you wanted to see storms. There's a complex of storms moving through Andalusia now and some of them have been warned cells. There are reports of quarter size hail and some trees down across Covington County. The good thing is Mobile cancelled the heat advisory.
Quoting 266. PlazaRed:
SAR ;
You bring a tear to my eye as I head off to bed at 2.30 am European Time.
at least somebody understands.

LOL. Have a nice sleep. Too many tears makes your nose all stuffy though. :-)
Quoting 247. Tornado6042008X:

I've seen hail 5 times in my life so far. The biggest hail so far being marble sized.
I've seen hail of any significant size three times in the ten years I've lived in Alabama. I'm really surprised at how little hail we generally get. I had more hail from unstable winter storms in California than I've had here. Of course, when we do get hail, it usually knocks holes in the roof and wrecks entire cars, so we make up in quality for what we lack in quantity. :-)
Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.


Strange how you think physics works in one case (weather) but doesn't work in another (global warming).

Maybe you just need to crack open a physics book. If guys in the 1800's could figure this stuff out you should be able to get it down in no time.
Quoting 244. pablosyn:

Giant and powerful anticyclone in the South America this week:



That sounds familiar...
Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense.


I feel the same way about the letters "G" and "R." They're pointless. I don't think English needs them.

Also anything having to do with "showers," "tropical depressions" or "wind." A pox on any weather blog that mentions those horrible things.

And I simply refuse to read sentences that include words that rhyme with "mud."
Quoting 240. KoritheMan:

Since I promised I'd keep you guys up to date on happenings in my life and all, here's a post I made on Facebook about some good news I got in an email last night:

"I'll be hosting a panel at MechaCon in New Orleans next month; Saturday July 18 at 5:00 PM. It's called "The Science of Hurricanes". I'll be teaching people about how hurricanes form, move, and their impacts to land. I really wanted to include tornadoes too, but panel time isn't infinite.

I'll try and have someone record so you guys can get a video of it or something.
"

So yeah. Don't say I don't do anything for guys, lol. Being that it's an anime convention, I was a little surprised it was accepted. I opened up the email expecting it to be denied. Big surprise.

I'll retroactively post the video I get for you guys to enjoy. My voice is sexy though, so try not to go into overload from watching it. ;) ;)
It's really a terrific thing seeing how you've gotten serious about getting an education. I'm sure you'll do a great job hosting the panel. Just wear a mask with those big eyes. Between that and your sexy voice, you'll be a big hit. :-)
Quoting 272. MaineGuy:



I feel the same way about the letters "G" and "R." They're pointless. I don't think English needs them.

Also anything having to do with "showers," "tropical depressions" or "wind." A pox on any weather blog that mentions those horrible things.

And I simply refuse to read sentences that include words that rhyme with "mud."
I imagine it's the letters "A", "G', and "W" the poster has a little trouble with. ;-)
Quoting 218. JTDailyUpdate:

    • I've just dogged a bullet



It sounds cruel, but my first thought was "should take care of some of those abandoned buildings down by the Inlet." Hope everyone gets the heck out of the water in time. That includes Lakes Lenape and Absegami.

Good time for me to add "It's good to be from New Jersey. FAR from..."
The sky outside was awesome. It was like Midas touched the sky. The sky was yellow because the setting sunlight refracted through the moisture in the air. I didn't take this pic, my friend did, but I have credits on photo editing because I was bored. xD

But yeah, it sure was amazing.

"American Girlfriend!"

Quoting 237. washingtonian115:

Watching 16 Candles.Still a classic and has lived up to the test of time.
Quoting 276. Articuno:

The sky outside was awesome. It was like Midas touched the sky. The sky was yellow because the setting sunlight refracted through the moisture in the air. I didn't take this pic, my friend did, but I have credits on photo editing because I was bored. xD

But yeah, it sure was amazing.

img
I took pictures of the sunset this evening.It was beautiful with orange and brown hues.Never seen anything like it before.
Quoting 273. sar2401:

It's really a terrific thing seeing how you've gotten serious about getting an education. I'm sure you'll do a great job hosting the panel. Just wear a mask with those big eyes. Between that and your sexy voice, you'll be a big hit. :-)


It's weird cuz I used to be really afraid of giving an oration. Now I don't have any issue with it at all.

I think it'll be a good learning experience for me!

And yeah, I've actually been re-prioritizing with my life in general. Education, my dealings with people, all kinds of things. I'm even more cognizant of what I say and do now because my friend of seven years recently stopped talking to me. Even if a lot of what happened he overreacted to, it's definitely enabled me to come away with a desire to communicate. We often forgo that in relationships in fear of being rejected or judged. I don't think that's healthy at all.
Quoting 279. washingtonian115:

I took pictures of the sunset this evening.It was beautiful with orange and brown hues.Never seen anything like it before.


Mammatus clouds ftw.
Quoting 281. Articuno:



Mammatus clouds ftw.
It turned from a orange sky with golden and brown hues to a Mars looking reddish brown and then finally pinkish red when the sun was in the final stages of setting.Truly delightful to witness!
Wow! Super Ridge! Imagine that stuck in place in ASO ....



LOL ... evening all ....
Quoting 282. washingtonian115:

It turned from a orange sky with golden and brown hues to a Mars looking reddish brown and then finally pinkish red when the sun was in the final stages of setting.Truly delightful to witness!
is the heat gone
Quoting 284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

is the heat gone


Sure is. It's a cool 74 degrees here.
Quoting 240. KoritheMan:

Since I promised I'd keep you guys up to date on happenings in my life and all, here's a post I made on Facebook about some good news I got in an email last night:

"I'll be hosting a panel at MechaCon in New Orleans next month; Saturday July 18 at 5:00 PM. It's called "The Science of Hurricanes". I'll be teaching people about how hurricanes form, move, and their impacts to land. I really wanted to include tornadoes too, but panel time isn't infinite.

I'll try and have someone record so you guys can get a video of it or something.
"

So yeah. Don't say I don't do anything for guys, lol. Being that it's an anime convention, I was a little surprised it was accepted. I opened up the email expecting it to be denied. Big surprise.

I'll retroactively post the video I get for you guys to enjoy. My voice is sexy though, so try not to go into overload from watching it. ;) ;)
Maybe we'll see some realistic cyclone portrayals in upcoming anime productions ..... based on your excellent [which of course in advance I know it will be lol] presentation....
Quoting 259. Naga5000:



The plot thins!
You sure that isn't the plastic instead of the plot?
Quoting 276. Articuno:

The sky outside was awesome. It was like Midas touched the sky. The sky was yellow because the setting sunlight refracted through the moisture in the air. I didn't take this pic, my friend did, but I have credits on photo editing because I was bored. xD

But yeah, it sure was amazing.


Super capture... hope you get to take some pics this summer [my goal is to upload at least one image daily between 1 July and 21 Aug]. You have a good eye and some super scenery to work with ....
Quoting 244. pablosyn:

Giant and powerful anticyclone in the South America this week:





Not sure what's more anticyclone, that, or that gigantic high pressure in the MDR.
lmao.
I need something to do haha
Quoting 222. sar2401:

I was just on the porch looking east. I can actually see the rain from a good size thunderstorm maybe a quarter mile away. I've had a 29 mph gust that knocked a coax support for my antennas loose. The storm is going to miss me by that much as it moves south. There are warned cells south of me in the Dothan area and east of me in Georgia. I'm depressed.

Same here Sar, check out the radar loop the past 3-4hours for area north of Orlando. In all that mess of rain and storms i only got 0.10" of rain....different day, same results....the same locations continue to get pounded, areas like Wekiva and Apopka.........SIGH
Quoting 285. Articuno:



Sure is. It's a cool 74 degrees here.


65.8 here
winds have dropped some now
down too 15 gusting too 20 kmh
wnw gonna be a great night
lows expected to range from 55 to 57

Hey Everyone,
I was just wondering if anyone in here was going to the Hurricane Conference
going on in Mobile Alabama this week??????

Taco :o)
Quoting 286. BahaHurican:


Super capture... hope you get to take some pics this summer [my goal is to upload at least one image daily between 1 July and 21 Aug]. You have a good eye and some super scenery to work with ....


I actually didn't take that picture, all I did was tweak it in photoshop a little bit from the permission of my friend. :3

I got a new camera this Christmas, it's taking me a while to transition from my old camera to my new, I'm getting there surely but slowly. I hope I can get out and take some pics too.
The Doors - Soul Kitchen

Link
Quoting 280. KoritheMan:



It's weird cuz I used to be really afraid of giving an oration. Now I don't have any issue with it at all.

I think it'll be a good learning experience for me!

And yeah, I've actually been re-prioritizing with my life in general. Education, my dealings with people, all kinds of things. I'm even more cognizant of what I say and do now because my friend of seven years recently stopped talking to me. Even if a lot of what happened he overreacted to, it's definitely enabled me to come away with a desire to communicate. We often forgo that in relationships in fear of being rejected or judged. I don't think that's healthy at all.

Sorry to hear about your friend. I know that must hurt.
Quoting 284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

is the heat gone
Yeah you can really tell the difference.Went into the garden for one finale check this evening and it was the first time in days I wasn't sweating bullets only minutes being exposed outside.
Quoting 293. ACSeattle:


Sorry to hear about your friend. I know that must hurt.


It's a lot better now, but yeah. It definitely does.

Maybe it's for the best, though. If you can't agree on the basics, you're going to have a pretty crappy relationship. That's obvious.
Quoting 294. washingtonian115:

Yeah you can really tell the difference.Went into the garden for one finale check this evening and it was the first time in days I wasn't sweating bullets only minutes being exposed outside.


Still very humid though. I expect tomorrow and VERY late tonight to be better. I was sodden and dogs were dragging after the evening walk, just a mile round trip.

I see a lot of weather walking these dogs.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 PM EDT Tuesday 23 June 2015
Condition:Clear
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:63.7°F
Dewpoint:53.4°F
Humidity:69%
Wind:WNW 15 mph
Make sure to pack your good set of lungs!!
Indonesia forecast:


Quoting 254. sar2401:

The road crew said they'll pick it up Friday...or maybe Monday.


What!? The Wicked Witch was wearing Orange?
Quoting 35. MAweatherboy1:

I'm hoping to see a thunderstorm today... but so far this year haven't had much luck.


Quoting 201. MAweatherboy1:

Boy, I just got one to add to the memorable weather events list. Just got out of the basement. Tornado warned storm went right over me. No tornado on the ground- I would've known because it really did go straight over me. Was pretty worried, it was starting to get that look on a few radar frames, but the rotation never tightened enough. It is stil warned though and moving into the South Shore of MA. I was hoping for a storm but that was a bit much...


Careful what you wish for, MA.

"We have seen multiple satellite passes confirming seas of 50 feet, with one pass indicating seas of just a hair under 60 feet. Satellite confirmed seas of 60 feet have happened only a handful of times around the globe in the last decade."
Quoting 281. Articuno:



Mammatus clouds ftw.


Uncle of mine in Baltimore saw some mammatus clouds, he emailed me asking what he saw on the backside of the storms.
Quoting 255. indianrivguy:



when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you should do is quit digging......
O i could make a nice comment here, but I was raised to be a gentleman..:)
I have a storm overhead right now with some amazing lightning. It's starting to calm down now so I think I'm safe(er) getting on the computer, but earlier I had a handful of strikes hit within a few hundred yards from my house. Still raining buckets with over 2 inch totals in some areas.
We've been absolutely pummeled here the last couple days, we've had nearly 4 inches of rain and 3 amazing lightning events the last 2 days. The thunderstorm this evening was amazing, incredible lightning along with some of the longest sustained strong winds I've seen from a thunderstorm in a long time. We had sustained winds of 25-35 with gusts over 40 to possibly near 50 mph for about 10 minutes straight give or take along with torrential rain and a lot of lightning. It led to flooding at work and knocked the power out from lightning.

This June has been crazy locally, I'll have to tally the total tomorrow morning, but I may be over 12 inches for June now, with about 8 inches in the past 10 days.

I'm not sure what's been up with the SPC storm report site lately, there are pictures of tree, power line, and even roof damage in parts of the Tampa Bay area from strong thunderstorm winds on the local news sites around here, yet the SPC shows no reports, what's up with that...

A week ago there was an event with about 6-8 severe thunderstorm warnings and a photo collection of damage throughout the area on the NWS site yet only one of the many damage reports was on the SPC site.

I guess maybe most people's damage only ends up on the local storm report? I don't know.
Quoting 301. Abacosurf:


"We have seen multiple satellite passes confirming seas of 50 feet, with one pass indicating seas of just a hair under 60 feet. Satellite confirmed seas of 60 feet have happened only a handful of times around the globe in the last decade."
Have you ever read about the experiences of the US Navy with typhoons in 1944 and 1945? I'll have to dig up the articles I have saved, but those typhoons would probably be a cat 5 today. What's now called Typhoon Cobra, in December, 1944 was probably the worst. It completely surprised the fleet, who had no inkling they were sailing into a major typhoon. The aircraft carrier Cowpens had a height from the sea to the top of her bridge of 63 feet, and there were waves breaking over the bridge. Three destroyers just disappeared without a trace. It wasn't the most intense typhoon ever, at somewhere around 907 mb, but it had remarkably high waves. This is a picture of the Cowpens in one her many 60 degree rolls. The captain was quite certain the ship would capsize, but she made it through the typhoon, although heavily damaged.

Quoting 305. Jedkins01:

We've been absolutely pummeled here the last couple days, we've had nearly 4 inches of rain and 3 amazing lightning events the last 2 days. The thunderstorm this evening was amazing, incredible lightning along with some of the longest sustained strong winds I've seen from a thunderstorm in a long time. We had sustained winds of 25-35 with gusts over 40 to possibly near 50 mph for about 10 minutes straight give or take along with torrential rain and a lot of lightning. It led to flooding at work and knocked the power out from lightning.

This June has been crazy locally, I'll have to tally the total tomorrow morning, but I may be over 12 inches for June now, with about 8 inches in the past 10 days.

I'm not sure what's been up with the SPC storm report site lately, there are pictures of tree, power line, and even roof damage in parts of the Tampa Bay area from strong thunderstorm winds on the local news sites around here, yet the SPC shows no reports, what's up with that...

A week ago there was an event with about 6-8 severe thunderstorm warnings and a photo collection of damage throughout the area on the NWS site yet only one of the many damage reports was on the SPC site.

I guess maybe most people's damage only ends up on the local storm report? I don't know.
I don't know the exact process with the SPC either but I don't think it generates reports on its own from things like pictures in the media. I think it just serves a clearinghouse for what the local offices send to them. Some offices are definitely better than others. Tallahassee has all the damage reports for some counties in south Alabama and the Panhandle already up at the SPC. It's pretty common for Birmingham not to post reports for a day after the event. I believe local office performance is what leads to some damage never (or poorly) reported.
The HRRR runs were making me very nervous this morning. I work at a pizza place, and when a lineman came in I told him he would be very busy tomorrow. He said "We're always busy" and I told him "No. Trust me on this one. Very busy."

Well, my fears were validated. Today was insane in my area (Philly region). Was put under a tornado warning for a while and many storm pictures support that warning. Gust front generated several reports of 70 mph wind gusts which overwhelmed the aging power structure around here. Numerous building collapses, trees obviously down everywhere. There are reports of serious damage in the city of Philadelphia proper and in many suburbs. Over 500,00 are without electricity in the region which includes southeastern PA, southern NJ, and northern DE. My friend claimed her coworker almost got sucked out when they saw a funnel cloud and tried to close the doors at their mall restaurant. I obviously didn't believe that until pictures started coming in of cars being flipped at said mall parking lot and serious damage to the siding of the mall building itself. Many towns have declared a State of Emergency and the airport in Philly recorded a wind gust of 71 mph. That's another top ten gust, we've seen five in the past decade and just had one in the record books last summer. Good thing the pope is coming around soon, we could use some blessings. These kinds of severe events aren't uncommon around here in the summer - but this is pretty damn bad.

Took this shot of a roll cloud after the storm on my street. My area was lucky.


Mall damage


Shelf cloud passes over the boardwalk


Philly
Quoting 308. wxgeek723:

The HRRR runs were making me very nervous this morning. I work at a pizza place, and when a lineman came in I told him he would be very busy tomorrow. He said "We're always busy" and I told him "No. Trust me on this one. Very busy."

Well, my fears were validated. Today was insane in my area (Philly region). Was put under a tornado warning for a while and many storm pictures support that warning. Gust front generated several reports of 70 mph wind gusts which overwhelmed the aging power structure around here. Numerous building collapses, trees obviously down everywhere. There are reports of serious damage in the city of Philadelphia proper and in many suburbs. Over 500,00 are without electricity in the region which includes southeastern PA, southern NJ, and northern DE. My friend claimed her coworker almost got sucked out when they saw a funnel cloud and tried to close the doors at their mall restaurant. I obviously didn't believe that until pictures started coming in of cars being flipped at said mall parking lot and serious damage to the siding of the mall building itself. Many towns have declared a State of Emergency and the airport in Philly recorded a wind gust of 71 mph. That's another top ten gust, we've seen five in the past decade and just had one in the record books last summer. Good thing the pope is coming around soon, we could use some blessings. These kinds of severe events aren't uncommon around here in the summer - but this is pretty damn bad.

Took this shot of a roll cloud after the storm on my street. My area was lucky.


Mall damage


Shelf cloud passes over the boardwalk


Philly



That was the Deptford mall right?
Quoting 309. VAbeachhurricanes:



That was the Deptford mall right?

Correct. You're familiar?
Quoting 310. wxgeek723:


Correct. You're familiar?


Yeah I was born up in Philly, whole family is from up there.
Quoting 306. sar2401:

Have you ever read about the experiences of the US Navy with typhoons in 1944 and 1945? I'll have to dig up the articles I have saved, but those typhoons would probably be a cat 5 today. What's now called Typhoon Cobra, in December, 1944 was probably the worst. It completely surprised the fleet, who had no inkling they were sailing into a major typhoon. The aircraft carrier Cowpens had a height from the sea to the top of her bridge of 63 feet, and there were waves breaking over the bridge. Three destroyers just disappeared without a trace. It wasn't the most intense typhoon ever, at somewhere around 907 mb, but it had remarkably high waves. This is a picture of the Cowpens in one her many 60 degree rolls. The captain was quite certain the ship would capsize, but she made it through the typhoon, although heavily damaged.



Sea stories have always intriqued me Sar. Sydney to Hobart disaster stands out. Link

"Surface analysis of the southern Indian Ocean at 00UTC on June 22nd by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicated deep low pressure of 922mb roughly half way between South Africa and West Australia, with high pressure of 1032mb on the low’s northwest flank. The incredible 108mb pressure difference between the adjacent high and low is driving an exceptionally large fetch of satellite confirmed 35-60 knot wind that currently encompasses the majority of the south Indian Ocean."
Down in SEFL the precipitation by me is around .75" for the month of June so far.
Only 91% below normal.
Seems low at the height of our typical monsoon.
Maybe it's atmo 3.0, though we do have plenty of water vapor.
Vapor.
Maybe the hydra headed forcings cartoon had one of his/her heads cut off.
Quoting 289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



65.8 here
winds have dropped some now
down too 15 gusting too 20 kmh
wnw gonna be a great night
lows expected to range from 55 to 57


Just dropped to 79.8 at 2300 on the nose. Maybe this is the start of a cooling trend. It was still 81 last night at this time.
Quoting 306. sar2401:

Have you ever read about the experiences of the US Navy with typhoons in 1944 and 1945? I'll have to dig up the articles I have saved, but those typhoons would probably be a cat 5 today. What's now called Typhoon Cobra, in December, 1944 was probably the worst. It completely surprised the fleet, who had no inkling they were sailing into a major typhoon. The aircraft carrier Cowpens had a height from the sea to the top of her bridge of 63 feet, and there were waves breaking over the bridge. Three destroyers just disappeared without a trace. It wasn't the most intense typhoon ever, at somewhere around 907 mb, but it had remarkably high waves. This is a picture of the Cowpens in one her many 60 degree rolls. The captain was quite certain the ship would capsize, but she made it through the typhoon, although heavily damaged. [...]

As Hurricane Floyd was passing the east coast of Florida, Buoy 41010 120NM East of Cape Canaveral recorded a significant wave height of 50 feet on 09/15/1999, after which the buoy was torn from it mooring,
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/1999/41010wvh .gif


"At Buoy 41010: Because the platform was engulfed in seas of 50 feet or greater height at this time, it is possible that the wind report in inaccurate (platform in wave troughs). The platform broke from it's mooring during the storm and drifted 12 miles." NWS MLB Link.
Quoting 312. Abacosurf:


Sea stories have always intriqued me Sar. Sydney to Hobart disaster stands out. Link

"Surface analysis of the southern Indian Ocean at 00UTC on June 22nd by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicated deep low pressure of 922mb roughly half way between South Africa and West Australia, with high pressure of 1032mb on the low’s northwest flank. The incredible 108mb pressure difference between the adjacent high and low is driving an exceptionally large fetch of satellite confirmed 35-60 knot wind that currently encompasses the majority of the south Indian Ocean."
I remember that. The coast there is tough sailing any time, but it's really tough when you're in a racing cruiser with about three feet of freeboard. I like sailing, but that was just nuts.
Quoting 291. Articuno:



I actually didn't take that picture, all I did was tweak it in photoshop a little bit from the permission of my friend. :3

I got a new camera this Christmas, it's taking me a while to transition from my old camera to my new, I'm getting there surely but slowly. I hope I can get out and take some pics too.
I've been so busy the last while that even when I do get a chance to take pics they languish on my hard drive for weeks before I get around to editing / posting..... :o/

I don't need a new camera right now, but TOTALLY understand the transitioning... I'm still getting the hang of all the various features of the Canon I'm using now. What I do want is a new lens .... lol ... in any case I'll look out for u on the WunderPics pages ....
Quoting 309. VAbeachhurricanes:



That was the Deptford mall right?
The downed trees look like near the Uni.
This blog ("A new take on the human factor in recent extreme events...") is more interesting because of what it cannot say than because of what it does say.

Wow. What is the basis for "twice as likely" in Peter Stott's paper? Twice as likely as what? once in 164 years? The abstract says... "Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude." So, twice in the next 164 years? Is this the basis which we are to double? What if the threshold is exceeded twice in the next ten years? Then will it be exceeded four times in the next five? Who among us can define this double trouble bubble?

And how the heck does a guy with Peter Stott's credentials "get" meteorology? Are there meteorology experts on the case (and on this study) with him who have studied and understand in depth the atmospheric interactions that cause weather? who have experienced being burned on a forecast? - in other words, who understand how the atmosphere behaves in the real world?

"Kevin Trenberth and colleagues start with the premise that every storm is influenced by climate change to at least some extent." Okay. I looked at that "study" the other day, or the story about it in The Guardian. Every storm is influenced by many factors to some extent. And if we really understood all facets of weather and its causes, every forecast would be perfect, and we could pin what was not perfect on mankind burning the midnight oil. Sandy, well, the SSTs contributed to... what SSTs always have and always will. "...increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along its track due to global warming likely led to a bigger, more intense storm, stronger winds, and greater precipitation." No duh. The duh is, sea surface temperatures vary. Gonna need more to go on than that.

Sorry, people. I'm stand on my hand. There just is no proof here humans caused any - not even the high surge of Sandy - extreme event. Oh. Oh. Well, maybe the fact that so many humans lived in harm's way. Now that's an irrefutable contribution to an "extreme" weather event in those circles that seem to define "extreme" as casualty - monetary and otherwise - upon humans. Casualty has nothing to do with causality in an extreme weather event.

You know what comes to my mind as an extreme weather event? 2005 hurricane Wilma's rapid intensification. That was an extreme weather event. And Haiyan. You bet. Haiyan was a sight to behold. Again, if humans were not in Haiyan's path, would anyone except weather nerds have paid attention? Well, maybe. Yeah, sure. Some climate scientists would, and are, paying attention - the scientists whose interest is the science not the media glory and hype, not the politics, not the risk money.

The Trenbreth and Stott studies prove nothing to me toward causality of extreme weather by global warming. One study assumes climate change influences weather as a "premise" and assigns a "threshold" to define extreme. The other "links" knowns - already known causes of strong storms that were present at a given moment, but may not ever be present in the same atmospheric way again.

The jury in my mind is still waiting for hard evidence. There is not enough warming - yet. Not enough sea level rise - yet. Not enough consistent SST temperature rise - yet. There is no standard definition of "extreme weather." And, so far, learned people of science, studies have not attempted to capture the NQ factor - the nebulous unknown, the arbitrary and nonsensical quirks that make clouds and wind behave the way they do.
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

*snip*
...The jury in my mind is still waiting for hard evidence. There is not enough warming - yet. Not enough sea level rise - yet. Not enough consistent SST temperature rise - yet. There is no standard definition of "extreme weather." And, so far, learned people of science, studies have not attempted to capture the NQ factor - the nebulous unknown, the arbitrary and nonsensical quirks that make clouds and wind behave the way they do.
See, for example, NOAA Paleoclimatology Datasets.
For example, we are "pretty sure" there have been a series of great glaciations in the past several hundred thousand years covering much of the North American continent, hence, the "Great Lakes" (and so much other evidence besides). Willful ignorance and denial: silly at best, disastrous most likely.
Quoting 277. LAbonbon:

From weather.com:

Massive Western Heat Wave May Break June, All-Time Records This Weekend (FORECAST)

Steve Gregory's latest blog:

COOLER IN THE EAST BUT BROILING IN THE WEST


It's a heat wave, yeah, but triple digits aren't unheard of around here. The fact that we get at least a handful of days each summer that hot or hotter, plus the very low humidity, might be bad for red flag warnings, but swamp coolers and sensible behavior for us all means it doesn't hit us as hard as it would, say, Sacramento.

(2012 or 2013, I forget which, we had a summer high in our yard of 117, then the following winter a cold snap with an early morning low of -17. Was a lot of fun to brag about. :) )
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

...
Wow. What is the basis for "twice as likely" in Peter Stott's paper? Twice as likely as what? once in 164 years? The abstract says... "Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude." So, twice in the next 164 years? Is this the basis which we are to double? What if the threshold is exceeded twice in the next ten years? Then will it be exceeded four times in the next five? Who among us can define this double trouble bubble?
...

Doubtful you're still around, but I'll take a shot at it anyways (with a little help from the Wikipedia page on "return period", or "recurrence interval", if you prefer):

Return period as "expected frequency"

The theoretical return period is the inverse of the probability that the event will be exceeded in any one year (or more accurately the inverse of the expected number of occurrences in a year). For example, a 10 year flood has a 1/10=0.1 or 10% chance of being exceeded in any one year and a 50 year flood has a 0.02 or 2% chance of being exceeded in any one year.

This does not mean that a 100 year flood will happen regularly every 100 years, or only once in 100 years. Despite the connotations of the name "return period". In any given 100 year period, a 100 year event may occur once, twice, more, or not at all, and each outcome has a probability that can be computed as below.

Note also that the estimated return period below is a statistic: it is computed from a set of data (the observations), as distinct from the theoretical value in an idealized distribution. One does not actually know that a certain or greater magnitude happens with 1% probability, only that it has been observed exactly once in 100 years.

This distinction is significant because there are few observations of rare events: for instance if observations go back 400 years, the most extreme event (a 400 year event by the statistical definition) may later be classed, on longer observation, as a 200 year event (if a comparable event immediately occurs) or a 500 year event (if no comparable event occurs for a further 100 years).

Further, one cannot determine the size of a 1000 year event based on such records alone, but instead must use a statistical model to predict the magnitude of such an (unobserved) event. Even if the historic return interval is a lot less than 1000 years, if there are a number of less severe events of a similar nature recorded, the use of such a model is likely to provide useful information to help estimate the future return interval.

[ Emphasis added. ]


TL;DR
What Stott is saying is that before AGW a heat wave in Europe like the one in 2003 had a 1-in-164 (0.6 %) chance of occurring in any given year, but after AGW it has twice the risk: 2-in-164 or 1-in-82 (1.2 %) chance of occurring in any given year.

323. vis0
One can read descriptions at my blog where the 4 VIDs are part of comment #114 THERE

Below just the links EXCEPT for VID #2 it shows lightning at a slow frame rate. Not posting description here as it involves too many words as to my theories & electricities counter part (grounded to Ethereal dimension as opposed to physical dimension) invention. IF you can make out whats happening in the VID and want to know more trying reading the aforementioned comment#114 on my blog. FIRST 2 have no audio.

http://youtu.be/opLao5wOIPI
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Here you see a few lighting strokes, there where many but as always, in big cities they seem to flash behind a building as if nature is playing peek-a-boo. Appears as 3 types of lightning in 3 flashes. Time of lighting was 18;01;20 EDT (6:01pm) SW/WSW skies. Time might be off but no more than 1 min and 20 secs. i slowed the VID down specifically for sar2401 so he can use the light from the flash to find Λ^RADAR if viewed during the night or to find that lost sock ...that 1970s burgundy & yellow horizontally stripped tube sock...1970s STILL HAS elastic!? ...nope us guys use our leg hairs as velcro to hold up old socks ; - P.

http://youtu.be/3lkl2lSzHds(720x480, below@600x400)


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http://youtu.be/TCJN3MFFe7o
WARNING:: HAS AUDIO AND FOUL LANGUAGE you might be able to hear and see rice to bean sized hail. Its the 6th or 7th (lost count) hail this year but usually i get 10-12 mini-hail a year ever since i have had the ml-d ON continuously. Of those only 2 or 3 are wide spread hail reported by other s in NYC, usually its just over/near my block due to what i say one of the ml-d settings does. Another is that the building seems to get wrapped in a tornado like wind flow around it as seen it from outside (street) where rain heads eastward on the south side of the building while rain tried to head westward on the north side of the building hail falls mainly on the east side windows, you are looking out the southern (SSW) facing windows.
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WARNING:: HAS AUDIO AND FOUL LANGUAGE
http://youtu.be/ZIQY1swTW6g
Good morning with more bad news from Pakistan:

Pakistan heatwave: Death toll crosses 800 people in Sindh
BBC, 2 hours ago

Number published by the opposition party is even higher:
Over 1,200 died due to heatwave across Sindh, Khursheed Shah tells NA
51 mins ago

Deaths 1,200 as Karachi wilts under heat
The Nation, June 24, 2015
Mansoor Khan/Agencies
KARACHI - The country's worst heatwave in decades has claimed hundreds of lives in Karachi as authorities on Tuesday ordered closure of all educational institutions and government offices while the army has also been called in to deal with the situation.
The heatwave, sweeping across Sindh, has been going on since the start of Ramazan on Friday, wreaking havoc and triggering an emergency situation in major hospitals of the province. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called for emergency measures as the death toll from a heatwave in Sindh hit 1,200.
Over 1,200 lives have perished in sizzling heat in four consecutive days in the port mega city as temperatures reached 45 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) at the weekend. Around 1,000 people died in public hospitals of Karachi while dozens died at small medical institutes and clinics. Many of the victims were elderly people from low-income families. ...


Temperature history for Karachi airport in June on WU
Nearly 100 Catholic and Evangelical leaders agree: We have a moral obligation to act on climate change.

Catholic And Evangelical Leaders Call On Lawmakers To Fight Climate Change

Quoting 305. Jedkins01:

We've been absolutely pummeled here the last couple days, we've had nearly 4 inches of rain and 3 amazing lightning events the last 2 days. The thunderstorm this evening was amazing, incredible lightning along with some of the longest sustained strong winds I've seen from a thunderstorm in a long time. We had sustained winds of 25-35 with gusts over 40 to possibly near 50 mph for about 10 minutes straight give or take along with torrential rain and a lot of lightning. It led to flooding at work and knocked the power out from lightning.

This June has been crazy locally, I'll have to tally the total tomorrow morning, but I may be over 12 inches for June now, with about 8 inches in the past 10 days.

I'm not sure what's been up with the SPC storm report site lately, there are pictures of tree, power line, and even roof damage in parts of the Tampa Bay area from strong thunderstorm winds on the local news sites around here, yet the SPC shows no reports, what's up with that...

A week ago there was an event with about 6-8 severe thunderstorm warnings and a photo collection of damage throughout the area on the NWS site yet only one of the many damage reports was on the SPC site.

I guess maybe most people's damage only ends up on the local storm report? I don't know.


If you looked at a time lapse of last night's storm in Tampa, you'd be surprised to know I only received 0.08". Somehow, all of that mess missed me even though I heard booming and cracks of thunder for hours. I've only received 0.24" in the last 8 days.
dry.laundry.outside?...i.do.my.share...are.you.all. talk?
It's been a strange night here in SE AL. Went to bed about midnight with clear skies and woke up about 4:00 to Radar Dog scuffling around in panic mode. A few thunderstorms developed on an outflow boundary/upper level trough in central AL and advanced southward. As they did, more storms were kicked off, and now the storms have developed into some kind of giant glob/mini MCS. These storms have been prolific lighting producers. The one that got Radar Dog going had lighting every couple of seconds that lit up the entire sky. Unfortunately, the storm passed just to east of me and I got no rain at all. The storms have now just about stalled, and the glob to my south has started backbuilding north. Maybe I'll get some rain if the backbuilding continues but, frankly, I don't know what the heck is going on. The models, including the hires HRRR, have done a terrible job handling this convection. It's overcast and 75 but we still have a heat advisory for today. If these clouds stick around, we'll have a hard time making it out of the low 90's. The overnight storms will probably kick off more storms as we get into morning heating but who knows where that's going to happen. Time to just look at the sky and radar and use some common sense for forecasting.

EDIT: It's now 6:10 am CDT and the rain has just started. The storms are backbuilding strongly and I'm getting some not yet insane level of lighting, but pretty intense. Radar Dog is under my desk, wrapped around my leg.
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

The Trenbreth and Stott studies prove nothing to me toward causality of extreme weather by global warming.
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

There just is no proof here humans caused any... extreme event.

Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

The jury in my mind is still waiting for hard evidence
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

There is not enough warming
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

There is ... Not enough sea level rise
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

There is ... Not enough consistent SST temperature rise
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

There is no standard definition of "extreme weather."
I dunno, man. That looks like a lot of, um, what's the word again? Starts with a 'D'? Anybody? Anybody?

Anyway, please do draw up a report, submit it for peer review, then prepare to be lauded as The Greatest Scientific Mind Of Our Time. Remember, however, that your study will need to not simply stomp its feet and repeat over and over that our burning of fossil fuels isn't helping to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events; it'll need to offer up a plausible alternate explanation for what's being observed.

I, for one, eagerly await its publication.
332. vis0

Quoting 208. Grothar:

Image of the blobs. They could pose a serious threat to countless ecosystems all over. It really is serious and have wide ranging effects.

But the question remains...."How do we know it hasn't been hotter before????"


Hold on to yer tummy cause yer going ta laff at this comment::
Now ya know were the west coasts RRRr's sent El Niño's (ENSO-e) energy, it sent El Niño snorkeling all the way till it reached land which adds to the Jet Stream going wavy crazy
why? let me lie ti ya, maybe cause Nature in reacting to some nuts device and in nature response, it was with several yrs of the RRRr in a row. Its up to nature how the raising from 3-4 yrs to 6-7 yrs in responding to that device thus creating the RRRr, and how those RRRr's are spread out. Nature this go around decided to bunch at least 5 of those 6 - 7 yrs together. It threw off STS El Niño predictions, caused Florida wx to follow Dakstar, sar2401's area to go opposite in weather as to being at a down-slope from mountainous areas and near salt water (explained on my blog how that leads to dry weird weather) and go observe how the other 3 RRRr caused at each compass area is causing its long term affect (SAL, COLD vortex & S . American Drought...then check out the opposite area of the worlds reaction) but again nature decides how to stack her reply to the nuts device.

There, hope ya enjoyed the lies and the gut busting laffter just like those that laffed when they first heard of something that was called "the phone". If i find the link on an old article on how as the phone was being introduced people pointed and laughed when they where told you could talk to someone across country ....HA HA HA!! ....yello? ...yes its all connected...oops wrong number

On the "positive" side its (RRRrs) a preview how aGW ALONE will influence long term weather PERMANENTLY (ya aint seen nothing yet) beginning in 'bout 50-60 yrs these constant extremes (RRRr) will happen without the ml-d influence as Nature will create its own 2 - 3 times the repeating wxextreme trends in order to "clean/scrub" out pollutants & NE will not be cooler. This will last for hundreds of yrs unless the pollutants are changed in a manner that burns them via an element(s)-reaction(s) the unwanted pollutants - why i say Earth has to fart to lower its co2 - or someone invents a maheekal-device and sets it to lower co2, but with much caution and have an international inspection constantly inspecting the device, as to change chemicals via this device is very dangerous if one does not follow the laws of
◄Physics ► ◄ Quantum ► ◄ Galacsics ►, you've been warned tickled.

yello?! no, i don't heed a spinning mop for ONLY 19.99, i have the Komondor 2000 on a leash ...woof! ITS A JOKE I DO NOT HAVE A DOG, i LIVE IN A NYC APT to small for a dog, so i take my spinning mop out fer a spin walk as if it where a dog.

...oh yes, BACK TO WEATHER
Good Morning.  All quiet for the moment in the tropical Atlantic and nothing brewing per NHC in the E-Pac except the healthy looking "lowrider" wave which is not forecast to develop.  Below is the current forecast for Conus as we await the next blog entry for discussion:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 24 2015 - 12Z Fri Jun 26 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Central High
Plains to parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley...

...Heavy rain possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians...

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Southern Mid-Atlantic westward
to the Central High Plains will fluctuate north and south through
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday morning, expanding
into parts of the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening. The showers and
thunderstorms will continue to expand eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Thursday. Upslope flow will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains
on Thursday, too.

Meanwhile, a weak secondary front just north of Lake Superior will move
southward to the Lower Great Lakes before dissipating by Thursday evening.
The boundary will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday moving into the Great Lakes by Thursday.
In addition, upper-level energy over the Southeast will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over the area through Thursday.

Elsewhere, diurnal heating and weak upper-level energy will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern/Central Rockies
during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday and Thursday.





Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:



I'm sorry but virtually that entire post is nonsense. Let's start with this one: "There just is no proof here humans caused any - not even the high surge of Sandy - extreme event." That's both a silly and unnecessary bar. Let's compare it to smoking and lung cancer. We know beyond any but a perverse doubt that smoking causes lung cancer, however, I have yet to hear of a single lung cancer case where it is "proven" that that specific cancer was caused by smoking. Nor do I ever expect to. It is silly to even bother about.

There is indeed a definition of extreme weather.

"So, twice in the next 164 years?" Nope. A one-in-164 chance says nothing about when the next or nest two occurrences will happen, any more than rolling a "12" on a pair of dice means that the next time you roll a "12" will be 36 rolls from now.

There's more nonsense in there, but I don't want to devote my entire morning to the misinformation and bum logic of your post.
335. vis0

Quoting 241. hydrus:

Greetings Vis..One of the things that always amazed me was how accurate the models were with such a bazaar path...Models did well for such a complex set up.
salutations from Earth Hydrus, i come in piece, of Little Debbie® snacks.

yes & no. Yes accurate but i think that was 'cause SANDY stalled (enough hrs for models to go wait now that-a-way, every time SANDYchanged direction (had to stall, due to physics, a mini car can do quick turns but a locomotive full of water would derail) Florida's & SE's Hurr. Andrew was more like a fuel injected mini car (as very bad , horrible as it was, image if Andrew make a quick turn and followed the coastline) while Sandy the 45 car train full of sweet & salty water,  piled up on the NE shores. MODELs that where loong term over 3 days where off in SANDYs direction being out to sea nor not as strong till it was suppose to be riding again out to sea, SANDY kept turn west and bombing out i remember only 3 or 4 WxU members days before saying watch out its bombing below ?50mb, when models stopped it at ?68mb, sar2401 (if i may toot, me) and i forgot the other member(s).
FWTIW if anyone missed it, Dr. Gray (the Godfather of Atlantic Hurricane research) is retiring this year in terms of the CSU outlooks and he is turning over the reigns over to Dr. Klotzbach. Just noting, in light of some of the current discussion on the blog, that Dr. Gray has noted for the past several CSU outlooks that they have not been able to correlate/find any discernible impacts on Atlantic storms from global warming issues. A few on here have criticized Dr. Gray for sitting on the fence on this issue (putting his head in the sand) but as a good scientist, he is still looking for the data (as related to Atlantic Hurricanes) before he takes a firm position on this narrow issue; I commend his position. I am posting below the comments he made when he made his semi-retirement announcement on June 1st; point being that Dr. Gray is "keeping an open mind" on this issue as any good scientist should in the face of the mounting evidence:

Although I still come to my office every working day and remain quite active, I am now devoting more of my research efforts to the climate change and global warming issue. For this reason I will be discontinuing my formal association with these seasonal hurricane forecasts at the end of this year. But I will remain as a special personal advisor to Phil in all of his future CSU hurricane forecasts as long as I am able. 

I am happy at the progress in climate-hurricane relationship studies that have been made by my research project (including former graduate students Chris Landsea, John Knaff, Eric Blake and Todd Kimberlain) and by other non-CSU groups since I began issuing these forecasts in 1984. At that time we had no objective way of determining how active the upcoming hurricane season was likely to be. But we do now! 

Age, technology change, and my growing new interests in the climate change debate dictate that I discontinue my formal involvement with these Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts after this year (my 32nd). I expect and hope that Phil Klotzbach will carry these CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts forward for many years into the future with his ever improving hurricane-climate understanding and continuous forecast skill improvement. There is no one (in my view) better able to do this than Phil. I will assist him in the coming years as much as I can. 
337. SuzK
Quoting 227. PlazaRed:



Gro!
I think it best we concentrate on this zone, for a while during the quiet season; maybe there is something about to be going on in this zone? Maybe not; best be prepared as the "scouts say?"
I've been obsessed with it all for months now.

I for one am not at all happy about all this heat in the gulf of Alaska! It does not bode well and the permafrost is succumbing to it as well.
Que Sera, Sera but its not what a lot of people want to expect from an ever forgiving Earth?


I agree that this is a place that bears closer scrutiny over time. The heat that is trying to escape Earth via the North Pole, is overwhelming the North Pole. Sudden Stratospheric Warming is pushing the polar vortex, sending it off kilter over here in the NE US where we weren't/aren't prepared/inerested to receive it. Lots of things are making the incredible heat...humans and their activities ramp up the excitement of that already entertaining trio of Earth, Atmosphere, and Cosmos that will combine to give us crazier than the usual crazy weather. Yes we could actually melt all the permafrost before the galactic 'fluff' envelops enough of our solar system to set crazy fires on whole planets. But relax...the Space ship that landed on the comet woke up, so obviously there's a plan. ViSo I love your posts; Sar you're starting to grow on me, and finally I sure wish you all would spend some of the down time analyzing the rest of the global crazy weather, instead of only the tropics. I know its Dr MAsters joint, but we could see a lot more action if you broadened your scopes. I so appreciate PlazaRed and Barb in Germany for their European highlights. And don't be afraid of those wacky 3-6 month prognostications. I bet its 49-51 they come out. I'm always looking at that too, in fact we should be hearing soon if this will be bAstardi's "Fimblevinter", the 3rd of the 3 bad winters before Ragnarok, the 3 year winter. Now is the time for PaTrap to post his Ragnarok dragons! Thanks for listening, I'm an armchair weather lover from childhood but can't add much science. Which reminds me to also thank Baltmore Brian for his dedication to all the science news links! Love them.
Quoting 332. vis0:

i LIVE IN A NYC APT to small for a dog, so i take my spinning mop out fer a spin walk as if it where a dog.


Ha! That's you?!
339. vis0
▬Quoting 245. bayou601:

I used to like reading the weather articles here. Now it's just global warming nonsense



■ Sad to see yer going to have to stop reading, in a few yrs the so called "nonsense" will be headline news, even on stations that told ya it ain't real. Careful i hear comic books also like to add reality to their stories, SUPERMAN SAVES THE WORLD FROM GLOBAL WARMING...if only oh look youtube has a VID of a tap dancing toad...NOW THAT MEWZ. (apology to patrap inadvertently used a bit of his Cajun spice in my remark.)
Netherlands ordered to cut greenhouse gas emissions
BBC, 1 hour ago
A Dutch court has ordered the government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% by 2020, in a case environmentalists hope will set a precedent for other countries.
Campaigners brought the case on behalf of almost 900 Dutch citizens.
They argued the government had a legal obligation to protect its citizens from the dangers of climate change.
Government lawyers did not immediately comment on the ruling at the court in The Hague.
Jasper Teulings from Greenpeace called it a "landmark case".
"It shifts the whole debate. Other cases are pending in Belgium, the Philippines. This is the start of a wave of climate litigation." ...


Pope Francis vs. Wall Street
WP, Opinions, by Katrina vanden Heuvel June 23
From Instagram.com/ABCNews -- This was the glorious view from inside Fenway Park in ‪#‎Boston‬ during Tuesday night's Red Sox game - via Good Morning America

342. vis0

Quoting 268. sar2401:

LOL. Have a nice sleep. Too many tears makes your nose all stuffy though. :-)
also runs makeup,,,TMI
Good morning everyone, mini drought in Fort Walton Beach area got some help this morning. Picked up almost an inch of rain at my house from some early morning storms. Looks like more in Southern Alabama that could be heading our way later! After no rain for about a month it was awesome waking up to the sounds of thunder and pouring rain this morning!
Quoting 336. weathermanwannabe:

FWTIW if anyone missed it, Dr. Gray (the Godfather of Atlantic Hurricane research) is retiring this year in terms of the CSU outlooks and he is turning over the reigns over to Dr. Klotzbach. Just noting, in light of some of the current discussion on the blog, that Dr. Gray has noted for the past several CSU outlooks that they have not been able to correlate/find any discernible impacts on Atlantic storms from global warming issues. A few on here have criticized Dr. Gray for sitting on the fence on this issue (putting his head in the sand) but as a good scientist, he is still looking for the data (as related to Atlantic Hurricanes) before he takes a firm position on this narrow issue; I commend his position. I am posting below the comments he made when he made his semi-retirement announcement on June 1st; point being that Dr. Gray is "keeping an open mind" on this issue as any good scientist should in the face of the mounting evidence:

Although I still come to my office every working day and remain quite active, I am now devoting more of my research efforts to the climate change and global warming issue. For this reason I will be discontinuing my formal association with these seasonal hurricane forecasts at the end of this year. But I will remain as a special personal advisor to Phil in all of his future CSU hurricane forecasts as long as I am able. 

I am happy at the progress in climate-hurricane relationship studies that have been made by my research project (including former graduate students Chris Landsea, John Knaff, Eric Blake and Todd Kimberlain) and by other non-CSU groups since I began issuing these forecasts in 1984. At that time we had no objective way of determining how active the upcoming hurricane season was likely to be. But we do now! 

Age, technology change, and my growing new interests in the climate change debate dictate that I discontinue my formal involvement with these Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts after this year (my 32nd). I expect and hope that Phil Klotzbach will carry these CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts forward for many years into the future with his ever improving hurricane-climate understanding and continuous forecast skill improvement. There is no one (in my view) better able to do this than Phil. I will assist him in the coming years as much as I can. 

So yet another superannuated climate change denialist--not an "open-minded" one, but one who has called global warming a "hoax", who has accused climate scientists of being "brainwashed" and "opportunistic" and "Svengalis who sold their soul to the devil", who has been a speaker at fossil fuel-funded Heartland Institute conferences--is shuffling away from his acknowledged field of expertise to spend his Happy, Golden Years peddling nonsense to the gullible.

Great.

The world will long be grateful of Dr. Gray's research into tropical meteorology. He worked hard to develop a reputation in that arena; it's sad that he's now going to squander that hard-earned reputation, and be remember by future generations as yet another old crank...
Quoting 330. Neapolitan:


I dunno, man. That looks like a lot of, um, what's the word again? Starts with a 'D'? Anybody? Anybody?

Anyway, please do draw up a report, submit it for peer review, then prepare to be lauded as The Greatest Scientific Mind Of Our Time. Remember, however, that your study will need to not simply stomp its feet and repeat over and over that our burning of fossil fuels isn't helping to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events; it'll need to offer up a plausible alternate explanation for what's being observed.

I, for one, eagerly await its publication.
Funny how the peer review at Nature Climate Change missed all that, isn't it? And Masters and Henson - you would think they would catch those problems with the research. Maybe this is the work of GGCTPCC (Great Global Conspiracy to Promote Climate Change)?
344. Neapolitan
8:12 AM EDT on June 24, 2015


I find your disrespect for Dr. Gray appalling and your closing "nod" to his other contributions disingenuous....Oh, and Good Morning.
Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

(snip)
And how the heck does a guy with Peter Stott's credentials "get" meteorology? Are there meteorology experts on the case (and on this study) with him who have studied and understand in depth the atmospheric interactions that cause weather? who have experienced being burned on a forecast? - in other words, who understand how the atmosphere behaves in the real world?

From your link:

"Peter has a first degree in Mathematics from Durham University and completed Part III of the Mathematics Tripos at Cambridge University. The research for his PhD at Imperial College, London was atmospheric modelling of the environmental consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. After that he carried out post-doctoral research at Edinburgh University on stratospheric ozone depletion." His Ph.D is titled "Effects of physical and chemical processes in storms on reactor accident consequences".

How the heck does a guy with Dr. Stott's credentials not 'get' meteorology?

The co-authors of his paper include Daithi Stone (credentials provided in Masters/Henson's blog post) and Myles Allen, member of the Physics Department at the University of Oxford. Dr. Allen is currently:

Professor of Geosystem Science
Fellow of Linacre College, Oxford
Leader of ECI Climate Research Programme
Head of the Climate Dynamics Group, Department of Physics, Oxford
Member of the Climate Systems and Policy research cluster

All three of the authors of the Stott paper have extremely lengthy and solid credentials when it comes to climate change and attribution studies.

Quoting 319. Barefootontherocks:

Again, if humans were not in Haiyan's path, would anyone except weather nerds have paid attention? Well, maybe. Yeah, sure. Some climate scientists would, and are, paying attention - the scientists whose interest is the science not the media glory and hype, not the politics, not the risk money.


Talk about baselessly attacking scientists.

I'm only specifically addressing dismissing the referenced scientists' credentials, and the broad swipe taken against the scientific community as a whole. I see some other posters have addressed other areas of your post. But I will say you seem to have missed the main point. It's an idea of looking at thermodynamics vs. dynamics. The linked piece in Mashable covers this nicely.
Quoting 316. sar2401:

I remember that. The coast there is tough sailing any time, but it's really tough when you're in a racing cruiser with about three feet of freeboard. I like sailing, but that was just nuts.


I was surprised by the storms this morning too, they weren't really forecasted until later in the week but I'll take the rain, first measurable rain in a month! BTW, quoted the wrong post of yours if you can't tell!
Quoting 343. 69Viking:

Good morning everyone, mini drought in Fort Walton Beach area got some help this morning. Picked up almost an inch of rain at my house from some early morning storms. Looks like more in Southern Alabama that could be heading our way later! After no rain for about a month it was awesome waking up to the sounds of thunder and pouring rain this morning!
Nice change, wasn't it? I ended up with 0.38" from my backbuilding storm. All the Panhandle storms are moving out into the Gulf and the storms up my way are weakening pretty fast, although there are still some strong cells near Troy and in Escambia County(AL). The cell just offshore from FWB is showing some signs of backbuilding, which has been pretty common with this glob, so you may end up with a little more rain in about the next hour or so. If we get some clearing this morning we'll see some more storms this afternoon. There are outflow boundaries all over the place so it's near impossible to say if any of them will get to you or me, but someone will get some rain this afternoon. At least our rain cooled atmosphere should keep the temperatures around 90 for you although, with the increased humidity, it will probably not feel any cooler.
Quoting 348. 69Viking:



I was surprised by the storms this morning too, they weren't really forecasted until later in the week but I'll take the rain, first measurable rain in a month! BTW, quoted the wrong post of yours if you can't tell!
LOL. Yeah, I can tell. :-0 I said in an earlier post what a poor job the models have done in handling this convection. None of this was forecast by any model, including those that usually do a pretty good job. They aren't doing much better for this afternoon's weather either, so all we can do is pay attention to the sky and the radar.
Quoting 336. weathermanwannabe:

FWTIW if anyone missed it, Dr. Gray (the Godfather of Atlantic Hurricane research) is retiring this year in terms of the CSU outlooks and he is turning over the reigns over to Dr. Klotzbach. Just noting, in light of some of the current discussion on the blog, that Dr. Gray has noted for the past several CSU outlooks that they have not been able to correlate/find any discernible impacts on Atlantic storms from global warming issues. A few on here have criticized Dr. Gray for sitting on the fence on this issue (putting his head in the sand) but as a good scientist, he is still looking for the data (as related to Atlantic Hurricanes) before he takes a firm position on this narrow issue; I commend his position. I am posting below the comments he made when he made his semi-retirement announcement on June 1st; point being that Dr. Gray is "keeping an open mind" on this issue as any good scientist should in the face of the mounting evidence:

Although I still come to my office every working day and remain quite active, I am now devoting more of my research efforts to the climate change and global warming issue. For this reason I will be discontinuing my formal association with these seasonal hurricane forecasts at the end of this year. But I will remain as a special personal advisor to Phil in all of his future CSU hurricane forecasts as long as I am able. 

I am happy at the progress in climate-hurricane relationship studies that have been made by my research project (including former graduate students Chris Landsea, John Knaff, Eric Blake and Todd Kimberlain) and by other non-CSU groups since I began issuing these forecasts in 1984. At that time we had no objective way of determining how active the upcoming hurricane season was likely to be. But we do now! 

Age, technology change, and my growing new interests in the climate change debate dictate that I discontinue my formal involvement with these Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts after this year (my 32nd). I expect and hope that Phil Klotzbach will carry these CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts forward for many years into the future with his ever improving hurricane-climate understanding and continuous forecast skill improvement. There is no one (in my view) better able to do this than Phil. I will assist him in the coming years as much as I can. 

Glad to see he's retiring while he can still enjoy the golden years ....

There's been a lot of shifting over time, albeit at times subtle, about the long term effects of AGW on TC activity. I have a feeling the impacts will be less in terms of frequency and more in terms of track, to wit, that areas previously impacted by TCs only infrequently will become more vulnerable to them.

But we shall see.
Quoting 347. LAbonbon:


From your link:

"Peter has a first degree in Mathematics from Durham University and completed Part III of the Mathematics Tripos at Cambridge University. The research for his PhD at Imperial College, London was atmospheric modelling of the environmental consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. After that he carried out post-doctoral research at Edinburgh University on stratospheric ozone depletion." His Ph.D is titled "Effects of physical and chemical processes in storms on reactor accident consequences".

How the heck does a guy with Dr. Stott's credentials not 'get' meteorology?

The co-authors of his paper include Daithi Stone (credentials provided in Masters/Henson's blog post) and Myles Allen, member of the Physics Department at the University of Oxford. Dr. Allen is currently:

Professor of Geosystem Science
Fellow of Linacre College, Oxford
Leader of ECI Climate Research Programme
Head of the Climate Dynamics Group, Department of Physics, Oxford
Member of the Climate Systems and Policy research cluster

All three of the authors of the Stott paper have extremely lengthy and solid credentials when it comes to climate change and attribution studies.


Talk about baselessly attacking scientists.

I'm only specifically addressing dismissing the referenced scientists credentials, and the broad swipe taken against the scientific community as a whole. I see some other posters have addressed other areas of your post. But I will say you seem to have missed the main point. It's an idea of looking at thermodynamics vs. dynamics. The linked piece in Mashable covers this nicely.
Well, yeah, but did Stott ever have a really blown forecast, like the thunderstorms in Alabama this morning? You know, the kind of forecast where people get really mad at him? That's been one of the criteria for a climate forecaster for a long time. How would you possibly know anything about how the atmosphere works if you never had a neighbor gripe at you that their BBQ party was ruined because you screwed up a forecast?

Gaahhh....
Quoting 346. weathermanwannabe:

344. Neapolitan
8:12 AM EDT on June 24, 2015


I find your disrespect for Dr. Gray appalling and your closing "nod" to his other contributions disingenuous....Oh, and Good Morning.
I respect Dr. Gray for his profound contributions to tropical meteorology, and I said as much in my comment. I do *not*, however, respect any person--scientist or otherwise--who gets paid by the fossil fuel industry to accuse thousands of hardworking climate scientists of being frauds and liars and money-grubbing socialists, as Dr. Gray has openly done. When he has spoken about hurricanes, many ears have listened, for he knows his stuff. But dismissing the research of thousands of others for ideological/financial reasons is simply wrong. And, again, Dr. Gray is NOT simply standing by awaiting more data on whether the planet is warming or we're causing it; he's actively worked for years to deny that warming and man's obvious connection to it.
Quoting 346. weathermanwannabe:

344. Neapolitan
8:12 AM EDT on June 24, 2015


I find your disrespect for Dr. Gray appalling and your closing "nod" to his other contributions disingenuous....Oh, and Good Morning.


Dr. Gray has disparaged other scientists, for example specifically referring to Dr. Trenberth,

“Colorado State University's William Gray, one of the nations preeminent hurricane forecasters, called noted Boulder climate researcher Kevin Trenberth an opportunist and a Svengali who 'sold his soul to the devil to get (global warming) research funding'.” Link

He has also said some pretty disturbing things like:

“Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews.”Link

“They've been brainwashing us for 20 years,” Gray says. “Starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15-20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was.” Link

Maybe he has changed his tune, and I hope so, but his previous words sound exactly the ones we see here used in irrational arguments against science. Science deniers do not necessarily reject ALL science, just the science that interferes with some aspect of their formed identities.
356. vis0
Lets observe::

image host
Quoting 351. BahaHurican:

Glad to see he's retiring while he can still enjoy the golden years ....

There's been a lot of shifting over time, albeit at times subtle, about the long term effects of AGW on TC activity. I have a feeling the impacts will be less in terms of frequency and more in terms of track, to wit, that areas previously impacted by TCs only infrequently will become more vulnerable to them.

But we shall see.


The jury is out on the exact long term effects but the most obvious one is warmer ssts over many of the main development regions in all the worlds tropical basins which can help fuel intense hurricanes over longer potential trajectories.....................Will be interesting to see how some of the other factors such as humidity-moisture issues, ridging, and jet and trof patterns change in the coming decades and what impact this will have on traditional climatology of the past 100 years. Interesting times ahead.
Quoting 340. barbamz:

Netherlands ordered to cut greenhouse gas emissions
BBC, 1 hour ago
A Dutch court has ordered the government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% by 2020, in a case environmentalists hope will set a precedent for other countries.
Campaigners brought the case on behalf of almost 900 Dutch citizens.
They argued the government had a legal obligation to protect its citizens from the dangers of climate change.
Government lawyers did not immediately comment on the ruling at the court in The Hague.
Jasper Teulings from Greenpeace called it a "landmark case".
"It shifts the whole debate. Other cases are pending in Belgium, the Philippines. This is the start of a wave of climate litigation." ...

You can bet that ruling will be overturned in a higher court. Tort cases need to show actual harm to a plaintiff. Not something that may cause harm in the future, but direct harm already suffered by a plaintiff. It's going to be an impossibility to show 900 plaintiffs suffered direct harm.
353. Neapolitan
8:36 AM EDT on June 24, 2015


Fair enough................I appreciate the additional info and clarification...........Have to see how he ends up on this issue and what direction Dr. Klotzbach goes (or does not go) in the future. If I was Dr. Klotzbach, I would stick to hurricane research and stay out of the debate............................................ :)
dr.grey.not.afraid.of.{science}
Quoting 356. vis0:

Lets observe::

image host
Good picture. You can see how that MCS up in Tennessee and north Alabama had just enough of an outflow boundary, even as it was weakening, to set off the thunderstorms down here this morning. I haven't seen that happen too often.
Catch u later [or on the next blog].
Quoting 350. sar2401:

LOL. Yeah, I can tell. :-0 I said in an earlier post what a poor job the models have done in handling this convection. None of this was forecast by any model, including those that usually do a pretty good job. They aren't doing much better for this afternoon's weather either, so all we can do is pay attention to the sky and the radar.


Yep, I have an App on my android phone called Instant Radar and it's the best radar App I've found for mobile devices. You click it and it instantly gives you a motion radar of wherever you are located. When I first heard thunder this morning I looked at it and saw the line of storms moving from the North and that was enough sleep for me, I was too excited seeing we were finally going to get some rain! Went outside just in time to turn sprinklers off before skies opened up!
Quoting 341. ncstorm:

From Instagram.com/ABCNews -- This was the glorious view from inside Fenway Park in ‪#‎Boston‬ during Tuesday night's Red Sox game - via Good Morning America



That's an awesome photo! Thanks for posting it.

Quoting 342. vis0:


also runs makeup,,,TMI


silly vis - you're not supposed to sleep in it :o

And nice as Little Debbie snacks are, I still stand by my old tried-and-true...Devil Dogs :P

Quoting 352. sar2401:

Well, yeah, but did Stott ever have a really blown forecast, like the thunderstorms in Alabama this morning? You know, the kind of forecast where people get really mad at him? That's been one of the criteria for a climate forecaster for a long time. How would you possibly know anything about how the atmosphere works if you never had a neighbor gripe at you that their BBQ party was ruined because you screwed up a forecast?

Gaahhh....

LOL - with all due respect to the Boys in Birmingham, let's flip it around - how are they with climate change research and attribution studies?
365. vis0

Quoting 338. LongIslandBeaches:



Ha! That's you?!
i hear ya, yes!?! but i do pick up... (small pieces of soap)  ...after my mop!
Quoting 354. Naga5000:



Dr. Gray has disparaged other scientists, for example specifically referring to Dr. Trenberth,

“Colorado State University's William Gray, one of the nations preeminent hurricane forecasters, called noted Boulder climate researcher Kevin Trenberth an opportunist and a Svengali who 'sold his soul to the devil to get (global warming) research funding'.” Link

He has also said some pretty disturbing things like:

“Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews.”Link

“They've been brainwashing us for 20 years,” Gray says. “Starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15-20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was.” Link

Maybe he has changed his tune, and I hope so, but his previous words sound exactly the ones we see here used in irrational arguments against science. Science deniers do not necessarily reject ALL science, just the science that interferes with some aspect of their formed identities.
Dr. Gray has already made his decision on AGW, as shown by his paid work and media performances for the Heartland Institute. There have been rumors that Klotzbach was threatening to cut his ties with CSU if Gray didn't retire or wasn't removed from the Tropical Meteorology Project there. Gray's weak endorsement of Klotzbach continuing "his" work makes me believe there's some truth to it. Dr. Gray is 85 years old, and has joined a number of other elderly scientists who, after a lifetime of real scientific accomplishments, has had their train go off the track. They seem to be the natural prey of outfits like Heartland, and it's sad to see them being exploited like this.
Quoting 355. Xandra:

I am now devoting more of my research efforts to the climate change and global warming issue."

- William Gray\

Oh, good. Maybe now he'll have time to learn something about the subject and stop defaming other hard-working and competent scientists.
How nice it is to see that rain blocking High no longer sitting over the SE!

Quoting 360. islander101010:

dr.grey.not.afraid.of.{science}

I'm sorry, but if that is your takeaway of his words and his direct comparison of people to Hitler and the holocaust, you are a sad, twisted individual.
Quoting 364. LAbonbon:


That's an awesome photo! Thanks for posting it.


silly vis - you're not supposed to sleep in it :o

And nice as Little Debbie snacks are, I still stand by my old tried-and-true...Devil Dogs :P


LOL - with all due respect to the Boys in Birmingham, let's flip it around - how are they with climate change research and attribution studies?
Mmmm...Devil Dogs. You want me to comment on something else the Boys probably aren't good at? Not me. I'm already in enough trouble with them. :-)
Quoting 370. Naga5000:


I'm sorry, but if that is your takeaway of his words and his direct comparison of people to Hitler and the holocaust, you are a sad, twisted individual.
Dr.Gray.understands.the.science.of.a.keyboard.tho ugh.
Quoting 358. sar2401:

You can bet that ruling will be overturned in a higher court. Tort cases need to show actual harm to a plaintiff. Not something that may cause harm in the future, but direct harm already suffered by a plaintiff. It's going to be an impossibility to show 900 plaintiffs suffered direct harm.
"Show actual harm". Not necessarily. Plaintiffs don't always have to wait until they are injured; sometimes they can prevail - usually by way of injunction - if they can prove the defendant has an obligation to prevent or avoid causing harm. Usually the form of a tort claim is: defendant has a duty; defendant breached that duty; plaintiff was harmed by the breach; therefore defendant must compensate plaintiff. But it's possible and valid to argue: defendant has a duty; plaintiff will be harmed if defendant does not perform that duty; defendant is not performing that duty; therefore defendant should be ordered to perform that duty so that plaintiffs will not be harmed.

But it's likely that a higher court will find some other grounds for overturning or dismissing the lawsuit (lack of standing is the first thing that comes to mind, but the chain of argument could be attacked at any of its links).
Quoting 368. 69Viking:

How nice it is to see that rain blocking High no longer sitting over the SE!


It's still there, just being undercut by a nice SW flow off the Gulf. This shows that, even in the presence of high pressure, we can still get rain if other conditions are right. It's things like this that demonstrate why seven day forecasts are just above worthless, while 384 hour forecasts, if we still got them on paper, would still be excellent bird cage liners. :-)
What?! Now I'm jealous that I'm not back in Alabama where they got a lot of rain overnight.
Quoting 346. weathermanwannabe:

344. Neapolitan
8:12 AM EDT on June 24, 2015


I find your disrespect for Dr. Gray appalling and your closing "nod" to his other contributions disingenuous....Oh, and Good Morning.


Really, well we find your constant "white washing" of climate science a M/O.

You and others seem set upon a belief that their is some "debate"?

Seems your more attuned to "individuals" than the body of KNOWN evidence that shows the Human footprint on the Warming.


Gray is not a climate scientist.


Oh, and G' morn.
Quoting 374. FLwolverine:

"Show actual harm". Not necessarily. Plaintiffs don't always have to wait until they are injured; sometimes they can prevail - usually by way of injunction - if they can prove the defendant has an obligation to prevent or avoid causing harm. Usually the form of a tort claim is: defendant has a duty; defendant breached that duty; plaintiff was harmed by the breach; therefore defendant must compensate plaintiff. But it's possible and valid to argue: defendant has a duty; plaintiff will be harmed if defendant does not perform that duty; defendant is not performing that duty; therefore defendant should be ordered to perform that duty so that plaintiffs will not be harmed.

But it's likely that a higher court will find some other grounds for overturning or dismissing the lawsuit (lack of standing is the first thing that comes to mind, but the chain of argument could be attacked at any of its links).
If the tort issue itself isn't the cause of the ruling being overturned, it will be done based on the any of the other causes that usually makes tort cases not stand up to appeal. I don't know the law in the Netherlands but in the US, at least, it's almost legally impossible for a lower court to order the Federal government to do anything. This was a good victory in terms of getting people to focus on the idea that AGW really does harm people, but I suspect even the plaintiff attorneys don't really expect their victory to stand in appeal. It will be an interesting case to watch though.
Wow. I looked at that and immediately felt that pit in my stomach. That is huge.

Quoting 298. Abacosurf:

Make sure to pack your good set of lungs!!
Indonesia forecast:



Quoting 376. TCweatherman:

What?! Now I'm jealous that I'm not back in Alabama where they got a lot of rain overnight.
Yeah, you're missing out. The Andalusia area got some honkin' thunderstorms this morning. I don't know what the rainfall totals have been in Covington County but BMX issued an urban and small stream flood advisory for Pike County,which has had over two inches of rain just this morning.
In the above article there is actually some truth stated in the cited article about extreme weather events and whether they can be blamed on climate change:

At the same time, they (the authors) agree that no storm is entirely a result of climate change: “...it is not possible to attribute a single climate extreme event, which by definition is unique and which has a large element of chance in its occurrence, to a specific cause.”

Maybe there's hope of having a reasoned conversation about this politicized topic.
Quoting 363. 69Viking:



Yep, I have an App on my android phone called Instant Radar and it's the best radar App I've found for mobile devices. You click it and it instantly gives you a motion radar of wherever you are located. When I first heard thunder this morning I looked at it and saw the line of storms moving from the North and that was enough sleep for me, I was too excited seeing we were finally going to get some rain! Went outside just in time to turn sprinklers off before skies opened up!
I'll have to check out Instant Radar. I've been using Radar Now! and it has done a good job for a phone app. My Radar Dog app usually does a pretty good job of waking me up, especially when 65 pounds of furry terror is leaping on the bed. I'm thinking it's about time for a nap and try to catch up after three hours sleep this morning. Radar Dog resting comfortably now, so maybe he'll stay that way for a while. :-)
Quoting 379. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow. I looked at that and immediately felt that pit in my stomach. That is huge.


Those are the kinds of seas we had to pull people out of. I can't imagine entering them for recreation. Then again, I'm kind of wimp, so maybe that's the reason. :-)
Quoting 381. Sandy82579:

In the above article there is actually some truth stated in the cited article about extreme weather events and whether they can be blamed on climate change:

At the same time, they (the authors) agree that no storm is entirely a result of climate change: “...it is not possible to attribute a single climate extreme event, which by definition is unique and which has a large element of chance in its occurrence, to a specific cause.”

Maybe there's hope of having a reasoned conversation about this politicized topic.


The science isn't politicized. Any claims that it is, from my research, indicates a bad choice in media sources and searching for confirmation that supports preconceived political notions. The "reasoned conversation" has been taking place in the scientific discourse for almost 200 years, it is nice that you are finally coming to terms with that.
Yea, my rain gauge is probably overflowing.
Quoting 380. sar2401:

Yeah, you're missing out. The Andalusia area got some honkin' thunderstorms this morning. I don't know what the rainfall totals have been in Covington County but BMX issued an urban and small stream flood advisory for Pike County,which has had over two inches of rain just this morning.
guessing, but a significant change in the pattern coming.

387. flsky
Gray's not even active anymore, is he? I thought he retired quite a while back.

Quoting 377. Patrap:



Really, well we find your constant "white washing" of climate science a M/O.

You and others seem set upon a belief that their is some "debate"?

Seems your more attuned to "individuals" than the body of KNOWN evidence that shows the Human footprint on the Warming.


Gray is not a climate scientist.


Oh, and G' morn.
Quoting 375. sar2401:

It's still there, just being undercut by a nice SW flow off the Gulf. This shows that, even in the presence of high pressure, we can still get rain if other conditions are right. It's things like this that demonstrate why seven day forecasts are just above worthless, while 384 hour forecasts, if we still got them on paper, would still be excellent bird cage liners. :-)
There are changes coming, but not all are good.
Quoting 337. SuzK:



I agree that this is a place that bears closer scrutiny over time. The heat that is trying to escape Earth via the North Pole, is overwhelming the North Pole. Sudden Stratospheric Warming is pushing the polar vortex, sending it off kilter over here in the NE US where we weren't/aren't prepared/inerested to receive it. Lots of things are making the incredible heat...humans and their activities ramp up the excitement of that already entertaining trio of Earth, Atmosphere, and Cosmos that will combine to give us crazier than the usual crazy weather. Yes we could actually melt all the permafrost before the galactic 'fluff' envelops enough of our solar system to set crazy fires on whole planets. But relax...the Space ship that landed on the comet woke up, so obviously there's a plan. ViSo I love your posts; Sar you're starting to grow on me, and finally I sure wish you all would spend some of the down time analyzing the rest of the global crazy weather, instead of only the tropics. I know its Dr MAsters joint, but we could see a lot more action if you broadened your scopes. I so appreciate PlazaRed and Barb in Germany for their European highlights. And don't be afraid of those wacky 3-6 month prognostications. I bet its 49-51 they come out. I'm always looking at that too, in fact we should be hearing soon if this will be bAstardi's "Fimblevinter", the 3rd of the 3 bad winters before Ragnarok, the 3 year winter. Now is the time for PaTrap to post his Ragnarok dragons! Thanks for listening, I'm an armchair weather lover from childhood but can't add much science. Which reminds me to also thank Baltmore Brian for his dedication to all the science news links! Love them.
LOL. I grow on most people over time. Some would say like a boil, but I know better. :)

I actually enjoy continental weather more than the tropics. I like the tropics when we have an actual storm, but the heavy breathing and arm flapping leading up to it is a little tiring. Alabama is a great place to live in terms of weather, since there's almost no weather experienced elsewhere in the country we don't get eventually. The best thing about Alabama is we still get snow occasionally, but the sun usually does the shoveling for me.
Quoting 388. hydrus:

There are changes coming, but not all are good.
That's usually the case. We do have to take the good with the bad. What's your guess on the bad things?
Quoting 359. weathermanwannabe:

353. Neapolitan
8:36 AM EDT on June 24, 2015


Fair enough................I appreciate the additional info and clarification...........Have to see how he ends up on this issue and what direction Dr. Klotzbach goes (or does not go) in the future. If I was Dr. Klotzbach, I would stick to hurricane research and stay out of the debate............................................ :)
I think you've got it backwards. Dr, Klotzbach has not gotten involved in the political fray, and actively dislikes that kind of media attention. It's Dr. Gray who has chosen to go to the side of other climate change deniers.
Quoting 335. vis0:


salutations from Earth Hydrus, i come in piece, of Little Debbie snacks.

yes & no. Yes accurate but i think that was 'cause SANDY stalled (enough hrs for models to go wait now that-a-way, every time SANDYchanged direction (had to stall, due to physics, a mini car can do quick turns but a locomotive full of water would derail) Florida's & SE's Hurr. Andrew was more like a fuel injected mini car (as very bad , horrible as it was, image if Andrew make a quick turn and followed the coastline) while Sandy the 45 car train full of sweet & salty water, piled up on the NE shores. MODELs that where loong term over 3 days where off in SANDYs direction being out to sea nor not as strong till it was suppose to be riding again out to sea, SANDY kept turn west and bombing out i remember only 3 or 4 WxU members days before saying watch out its bombing below ?50mb, when models stopped it at ?68mb, sar2401 (if i may toot, me) and i forgot the other member(s).

This is true, but the dynamics going on inside and around Sandy were a sloppy mix of the tropical and baroclinic, which I thought the models handled well, despite her track and motion...Andrew, which at first looked like the little bird that slammed the unguilded fan, traveled west on 25.6 for two days before devastating Dade County....Coulda slapped a ruler to that due west path.
Hey sar, do you happen to have somewhere that I can look at last nights radar loop?
Did not mean to cause any major issues on the blog with my post as to Dr. Gray; I was not aware of the Heartland issues and his positions (outside of CSU) until Yall corrected me this morning so I appreciate all the links. As to the comment with regard to my "whitewashing" issues, you all know that I spend most of my time on here focusing on tropical storm and climate/weather observations...................I am not a paid anti GW lobbyist nor do I bang the drum all day bashing anti-believers......................This is just a hobby interest and I don't/rarely attack anyone on here for their personal positions.

With all due respect to everyone and Patrap.
Had one more thought I want to post - a thought which came to mind in the wee hours. It won't ever happen. "It" being science tying an extreme weather event to global warming. The nature of weather, the variables involved, won't allow that.

Oh. @LAbonbon,
Nothing at all is clear about Daithi Stone's credentials when I visit his web page. Certainly nothing there that would lead me to believe he is a degreed meteorologist - which is my point. Are any of this study's three authors a trained and practicing meteorologist? Show me.

Related to what I posted, you wrote:
"Talk about baselessly attacking scientists.

"I'm only specifically addressing dismissing the referenced scientists' credentials, and the broad swipe taken against the scientific community as a whole. I see some other posters have addressed other areas of your post. But I will say you seem to have missed the main point. It's an idea of looking at thermodynamics vs. dynamics. The linked piece in Mashable covers this nicely."


I imagine those other posters have also twisted my words. I can't see their comments, and I won't look. Mostly I've found in the past, comments back to me are personal attacks based on the fact I do not accept that which does not make sense to me within my own self, who I am. No amount of insult or argument will change that.

I can see your words, so I will address them. I did not dismiss anyone's credentials. You are attacking my thoughts about the level of understanding a non-meteorolgist would have about the intricacies of weather. My comment is related to non-meteorologists writing studies about weather. Peter Stott's thesis was about "atmospheric modelling of the environmental consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident" - a reasonably controlled set of data that was not out to prove causality. I hope that clears up what I wrote, for you and others.

Also, where weather is concerned, trying to separate dynamics from thermo-dynamics or pitting one against the other is foolish thinking. And I'm guessing the thought did not come from a well-schooled meteorologist.

If you can't see my meaning now, I am unable to further illuminate the matter for you.
Stunning new graphic from Bloomberg should help anyone see 'natural causes' aren't driving climate change.

What's Really Warming the World?

Climate deniers blame natural factors; NASA data proves otherwise

Very strong WWB on the way. WOW!

Another seabreeze collision over my area dropped just over 2" giving me 8.77" so far for June. Getting a little soggy now even had some flooding in areas yesterday.

Quoting 322. EstherD:


Doubtful you're still around, but I'll take a shot at it anyways (with a little help from the Wikipedia page on "return period", or "recurrence interval", if you prefer):

Return period as "expected frequency"

The theoretical return period is the inverse of the probability that the event will be exceeded in any one year (or more accurately the inverse of the expected number of occurrences in a year). For example, a 10 year flood has a 1/10=0.1 or 10% chance of being exceeded in any one year and a 50 year flood has a 0.02 or 2% chance of being exceeded in any one year.

This does not mean that a 100 year flood will happen regularly every 100 years, or only once in 100 years. Despite the connotations of the name "return period". In any given 100 year period, a 100 year event may occur once, twice, more, or not at all, and each outcome has a probability that can be computed as below.

Note also that the estimated return period below is a statistic: it is computed from a set of data (the observations), as distinct from the theoretical value in an idealized distribution. One does not actually know that a certain or greater magnitude happens with 1% probability, only that it has been observed exactly once in 100 years.

This distinction is significant because there are few observations of rare events: for instance if observations go back 400 years, the most extreme event (a 400 year event by the statistical definition) may later be classed, on longer observation, as a 200 year event (if a comparable event immediately occurs) or a 500 year event (if no comparable event occurs for a further 100 years).

Further, one cannot determine the size of a 1000 year event based on such records alone, but instead must use a statistical model to predict the magnitude of such an (unobserved) event. Even if the historic return interval is a lot less than 1000 years, if there are a number of less severe events of a similar nature recorded, the use of such a model is likely to provide useful information to help estimate the future return interval.

[ Emphasis added. ]


TL;DR
What Stott is saying is that before AGW a heat wave in Europe like the one in 2003 had a 1-in-164 (0.6 %) chance of occurring in any given year, but after AGW it has twice the risk: 2-in-164 or 1-in-82 (1.2 %) chance of occurring in any given year.


Thanks, EstherD.
Quoting 386. hydrus:

guessing, but a significant change in the pattern coming.




I said over 10 days ago it was coming. SOI drop ring a bell?
Quoting 393. TCweatherman:

Hey sar, do you happen to have somewhere that I can look at last nights radar loop?


Here you go, look at the bottom of the Wunderground Nexrad radar page for your area and select Radar History.

Link
Climate change "affects all weather and storms...They cannot NOT be affected."

Weather Extremes Wear Climate Change's Fingerprints

Quoting 396. Xandra:

Stunning new graphic from Bloomberg should help anyone see 'natural causes' aren't driving climate change.

What's Really Warming the World?

Climate deniers blame natural factors; NASA data proves otherwise


That's an amazing graphic animation. Boomarked for posterity. Thanks!
aussies came out with their ENSO update yesterday....it looks like they're backing off on taking a posistion on the strength of this event...as their last updates have talked about a strong event...no such wording at this juncture....

El Niño consolidates
Issued on 23 June 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The 2015 El Niño continues to strengthen. Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate further consolidation is likely. El Niño events typically strengthen during the second half of the year, reaching full strength during late spring or early summer. It is not possible at this stage to determine how strong this El Niño will be.
El Niño is typically associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always determine the strength of its effects on Australia's climate. There are examples of weak El Niño events resulting in widespread drought and strong El Niño events with little impact on rainfall.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, three suggest a positive IOD is likely during the southern spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
Quoting 403. Neapolitan:

That's an amazing graphic animation. Boomarked for posterity. Thanks!


It has never been about science with our Denier Friends, as that has been settled long ago.
It is about the Free Market, regulation, taxes and other issues that restrict economic activity.
If they confront and embrace reality, the smoke clears, and they are in a fetal position screaming.
how's that kelvin wave doing?????


5-day sub-surface temperatures
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 21 June shows temperatures are cooler than average below the surface of the ocean in the western equatorial Pacific and warmer than average in the top 150 m of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Water in the top 75 m of the far eastern Pacific is more than 5 °C warmer than average. This general pattern is consistent with El Niño.
Compared to two weeks ago, the area of warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific sub-surface has contracted while the area of cool anomalies in the west has increased.
a drastic drop in their forecast model.....

Please check out the Portlight Featured blog to Help with a Local Texas flood relief Silent Auction this Saturday.

Thanx
Quoting 381. Sandy82579:

In the above article there is actually some truth stated in the cited article about extreme weather events and whether they can be blamed on climate change:

At the same time, they (the authors) agree that no storm is entirely a result of climate change: “...it is not possible to attribute a single climate extreme event, which by definition is unique and which has a large element of chance in its occurrence, to a specific cause.”

Maybe there's hope of having a reasoned conversation about this politicized topic.

You know I was not going to make any comments about this but the Climate Folks on here are in "Full Form"
I have read both sides of this Political Topic and I my self "Do not Believe in it" and Never Will......
"Follow The Money".... Even the founder of TWC still makes his comments about this topic and we all know
how he stands on this. Even the good Doctor on here way back in (04) have said he would not get into this but now
it's all about GW or Climate Change.... I'm sorry but I will not go into this...... You can hate me, unfriend me, or even block me. I do not care.
If you put 25 of the Best Climate Change Scientist and 25 of the Best Non-Climate Change Scientist in a room those
Men and Woman would "Not" agree on anything.... They would be split right down the middle....
So do what ever but I know "I Want"

By the way it is Raining here and I will almost bet that we will Not get to 100 degrees Today like they have said.....

Oh Yeah Good Morning All....

Taco :o)
just to give you an idea on how far and how fast the poama model ha dropped...here's the aussies discussion about it the end of may


Climate Model Summary Archive: May 2015
Models indicate tropical Pacific to remain well above El Niño thresholds
The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño, with weekly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above El Niño levels for the past five weeks. The latest model outlooks suggest warming is likely to continue in the central tropical Pacific, with SSTs predicted to climb well above the El Niño threshold.
The average of the model forecasts for NINO3.4 for October 2015 is +2.4 °C. A monthly value of NINO3.4 this high has only been observed a few times since records began in 1980 (35 years); during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events.
The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.1 °C for the week ending 17 May 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically indicate El Niño.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) starts to impact on Australian climate from May through to the end of spring. The latest model outlooks for the IOD index show some tendency towards a positive IOD event by late winter. Positive IOD events tend to reduce rainfall in southern and central Australia during the winter and spring months, and can exacerbate rainfall deficiencies caused by El Niño.
Deep Derp Alert,...

: )

Science could care less what any Human "believes".

Science is like dat.

The Human induced warming continues, unabated.
413. txjac
Quoting 409. Patrap:

Please check out the Portlight Featured blog to Help with a Local Texas flood relief Silent Auction this Saturday.

Thanx


Pat, will any of this be available for bidding online?
Quoting 395. Barefootontherocks:

snip........
I imagine those other posters have also twisted my words. I can't see their comments, and I won't look. Mostly I've found in the past, comments back to me are personal attacks based on the fact I do not accept that which does not make sense to me within my own self, who I am. No amount of insult or argument will change that.
Snip.......
Oh, I'm so relieved. It would be dreadful to have a reasoned discussion about science. Much better to rely on one's own sensibility.
Quoting 413. txjac:



Pat, will any of this be available for bidding online?


Being a silent auction I believe one has to be in attendance for that, but Im not sure. One can contact them and see maybe.

All I have is the posted info in the Portlight entry, but here is the posted LINK for the event . Artists Helping Wimberley
My Wife, Kids and some relatives are in Charleston today paying respects for the victims at the AME Church. Emotional day for me and could not go because of work commitments..................You folks have a great day and will see Yall in the future sometime..............................WW.
Quoting 412. Patrap:

Deep Derp Alert,...

: )

Science could care less what any Human "believes".

Science is like dat.

The Human induced warming continues, unabated.
We could add:

The laws of physics do not care what any human "believes". The Blomberg graphic that Xandra posted illustrates that very nicely.
Umm..... This looks interesting...


Levi Cowan
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 406. ricderr:

how's that kelvin wave doing?????


5-day sub-surface temperatures
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 21 June shows temperatures are cooler than average below the surface of the ocean in the western equatorial Pacific and warmer than average in the top 150 m of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Water in the top 75 m of the far eastern Pacific is more than 5 °C warmer than average. This general pattern is consistent with El Niño.
Compared to two weeks ago, the area of warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific sub-surface has contracted while the area of cool anomalies in the west has increased.



No super El Niño?
Quoting 394. weathermanwannabe:

Did not mean to cause any major issues on the blog with my post as to Dr. Gray; I was not aware of the Heartland issues and his positions (outside of CSU) until Yall corrected me this morning so I appreciate all the links. As to the comment with regard to my "whitewashing" issues, you all know that I spend most of my time on here focusing on tropical storm and climate/weather observations...................I am not a paid anti GW lobbyist nor do I bang the drum all day bashing anti-believers......................This is just a hobby interest and I don't/rarely attack anyone on here for their personal positions.

With all due respect to everyone and Patrap.
Don't worry about it. You're a good guy. Just because you didn't know the background of one person doesn't mean you "whitewashed" anything.
Quoting 419. Bucsboltsfan:



No super El Niño?
Many experts weren't calling for a super strong El nino.Perhaps a moderate one but not surpassing the 82-83 and 97-98.
Quoting 421. washingtonian115:

Many experts weren't calling for a super strong El nino.Perhaps a moderate one but not surpassing the 82-83 and 97-98.
Good morning 115...I wanted to ask how bad was at your place with the storms.
Quoting 422. hydrus:

Good morning 115...I wanted to ask how bad was at your place with the storms.
Good morning Hydrus.The storms weren't to out of the ordinary.Some gust with lighting and thunder.The storms came with heavy downpours and added to the totals.
Quoting 408. JrWeathermanFL:



BLOB


Blob image should always be in color to excite the masses.



Quoting 424. Grothar:



Blob image should always be in color to excite the masses.






That's Funny but oh How "True"

Taco :o)
Quoting 422. hydrus:

Good morning 115...I wanted to ask how bad was at your place with the storms.


In College Park MD, I got about 0.5" of rain in 20 minutes. Enough to re-soggify my soil. Top wind gust was about 30mph. It looked worse coming in than it turned out to be. I am not 115 so I'll wait for her storm report also.


Looking cool and wet this weekend. Potential for record low max Saturday though people aren't calling for it yet.
I may have to empty the rental garden drainage ditches for the first time ever, for mosquito control. They are loaded with frogs now.

Warm weather has ruined or at least set back my broccoli crop weeks early. It looks good but hot weather broccoli tastes terrible!. The stuff in the store is better! If July is as cool as July 2000 or 2014, it may recover somewhat. I had a tough late spring (three teens!!) and did not plant the April 30 peas. Hot weather has made that moot.. they would have failed!


Quoting 410. taco2me61:


You know I was not going to make any comments about this but the Climate Folks on here are in "Full Form"
I have read both sides of this Political Topic and I my self "Do not Believe in it" and Never Will......
"Follow The Money".... Even the founder of TWC still makes his comments about this topic and we all know
how he stands on this. Even the good Doctor on here way back in (04) have said he would not get into this but now
it's all about GW or Climate Change.... I'm sorry but I will not go into this...... You can hate me, unfriend me, or even block me. I do not care.
If you put 25 of the Best Climate Change Scientist and 25 of the Best Non-Climate Change Scientist in a room those
Men and Woman would "Not" agree on anything.... They would be split right down the middle....
So do what ever but I know "I Want"

By the way it is Raining here and I will almost bet that we will Not get to 100 degrees Today like they have said.....

Oh Yeah Good Morning All....

Taco :o)


The cool thing about conspiracy theories is that the very evidence needed to debunk the conspiracy will never been accepted by the conspiracists because it is itself part of the conspiracy.

Kinda makes it hard to have any rational conversation about it when the "other side" is completely irrational in it's reasoning.

Quoting 427. Naga5000:





The cool think about conspiracy theories is that the very evidence needed to debunk the conspiracy will never been accepted by the conspiracists because it is itself part of the conspiracy.

Kinda makes it hard to have any rational conversation about it when the "other side" is completely irrational in it's reasoning.




True 100% "Very True"

Thank You

Taco :o)
In reference to Dr. Masters post from yesterday June 23rd (above) Hurricane Sandy WAS NOT the most powerful Hurricane in recorded history. Hurricane Wilma was in 2005 while south of Cuba and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was the most powerful Hurricane to ever strike land in the United States. And Sandy did NOT hit the New Jersey coast as a Hurricane. It came ashore as a very strong broad area of Low Pressure. So Dr. Masters you might want to correct these two statements you made in section-1 of yesterdays post.


Nino 3.4 is on the rise.
Quoting 395. Barefootontherocks:

My comment is related to non-meteorologists writing studies about weather.


And have you then taken notice how the entirety of your critiquing of the work of scientists may be a perfect example of the very thing your comment was "related" to?

Seriously, BF, it you can't make the connection between burning fossil fuels -> increased CO2 -> warming of the atmosphere and oceans by the greenhouse effect -> changes in the thermodynamics of ocean and atmosphere -> changes in probability of extreme weather events, then there is literally no hope for you to understand any of this. It's quite straightforward with many proven causal chains. Your issue seems to be you don't like probabilistic science, in which case, I have some very bad news for you, you may want to sit down for this.
Quoting 400. StormTrackerScott:



I said over 10 days ago it was coming. SOI drop ring a bell?
Howdy...in very short form, what do believe will be happening with Nino this winter...I am swamped, but wondered what your thought are.
Good Afternoon everyone!

Big ridge out west and a return of the East Coast trough. Should be a welcomed sign of relief for those who have had to battle through the oppressive heat in the Southeast, especially construction workers, landscapers, and those who do work outside. Now the only thing missing is no hurricane to recurve it OTS. :P

434. bwi
Perfect weather today in Maryland. Relief from the heat. Last night's storms weren't severe in my area -- just a heavy thundershower.
Quoting 429. HurriHistory:

In reference to Dr. Masters post from yesterday June 23rd (above) Hurricane Sandy WAS NOT the most powerful Hurricane in recorded history. Hurricane Wilma was in 2005 while south of Cuba and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was the most powerful Hurricane to ever strike land in the United States. And Sandy did NOT hit the New Jersey coast as a Hurricane. It came ashore as a very strong broad area of Low Pressure. So Dr. Masters you might want to correct these two statements you made in section-1 of yesterdays post.


I think "powerful" in this sense is being used to describe the overall wind field, which spanned 1,100 miles in diameter, but I agree the wording should be clearer.
PRESS RELEASE:
A technician is now on island to repair the country’s Doppler radar system. Officials from CINWS say the motor on the weather radar is malfunctioning. It came offline more than two weeks ago.
The National Weather Service tells us the technician arrived Monday night and is currently at the radar site in East End repairing the defective part. He’s expected to remain on island until next week.

The Doppler radar went online in 2013. It cost $4 million with the bill footed by the European Union.

The National Weather Service says there will be no cost to the country for repairs.
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:

Very strong WWB on the way. WOW!




No won't be as strong as forecasted
Quoting 433. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Afternoon everyone!

Big ridge out west and a return of the East Coast trough. Should be a welcomed sign of relief for those who have had to battle through the oppressive heat in the Southeast, especially construction workers, landscapers, and those who do work outside. Now the only thing missing is no hurricane to recurve it OTS. :P




Looks like a repeat of the pattern from winter, although not as much burning up the west coast.
Quoting 438. Naga5000:



Looks like a repeat of the pattern from winter, although not as much burning up the west coast.
Well: I wouldn't count on that...

Quoting 439. Neapolitan:

Well: I wouldn't count on that...




Well then, nevermind. :(
Quoting 438. Naga5000:



Looks like a repeat of the pattern from winter, although not as much burning up the west coast.
Yes, it's actually been like that for the past couple of seasons for the East Coast at least. I guess the positioning of the axis has swung back and forth a little. Anyways no complaints from me here. Saw that Orlando hit a 100 degrees the other day and soon after thunderstorms exploded over that area. Thunder already rumbling in Pinellas County, looks like a cell just went up. The Northeast had some severe weather yesterday as well.
Quoting 413. txjac:



Pat, will any of this be available for bidding online?


You must be present to place bids for the silent auction. My wife posted pictures of some of the artwork donated by artists in our community on Facebook. She has had request from friends all over the country to place bids on their behalf.
Quoting 437. wunderkidcayman:



No won't be as strong as forecasted
You don't buy it?! Really?
Water vapor circulation in GOM looks interesting. Anything show up on models?
Thank you, I've never ventured out that far haha.
Quoting 401. 69Viking:



Here you go, look at the bottom of the Wunderground Nexrad radar page for your area and select Radar History.

Link
WWB should be able to recharge another shot in a month or two.

Oh and that La nina looking like a possibility for next year ;)
Quoting 413. txjac:



Pat, will any of this be available for bidding online?


I just spoke with the folks organizing this event and there will be no online bidding. Apparently, this event is being put together by a small group of volunteers in a short period of time. While they only expected a hundred or so pieces to be donated, they have received many more items than planned for. If they are not able to move all the items, then an online bidding arrangement will be looked in to. For those that want to help in otherways, please check out this website from one of the local TV stations; Link.
Quoting 418. Tornado6042008X:

Umm..... This looks interesting...


Levi Cowan
www.tropicaltidbits.com


319. Barefootontherocks:



*snip*
...The jury in my mind is still waiting for hard evidence. There is not enough warming - yet. Not enough sea level rise - yet. Not enough consistent SST temperature rise - yet. There is no standard definition of "extreme weather." And, so far, learned people of science, studies have not attempted to capture the NQ factor - the nebulous unknown, the arbitrary and nonsensical quirks that make clouds and wind behave the way they do.





A follow up to a post of mine from yesterday- the NWS office in Taunton, MA has confirmed that a brief EF0 tornado touched down in Wrentham, MA yesterday, right in the town common area. Wrentham is my hometown, with the common being about a mile from my house. Just glad it wasn't worse! Much nicer weather today behind the front.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1211 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WRENTHAM IN NORFOLK COUNTY MA...

LOCATION...WRENTHAM IN NORFOLK COUNTY MA
DATE...JUNE 23 2015
ESTIMATED TIME...539 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...200 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.06N / -71.33W
ENDING LAT/LON...42.06N / -71.33W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO
NEAR WRENTHAM IN NORFOLK COUNTY MA ON JUNE 23 2015.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A SMALL TORNADO THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE WRENTHAM CENTER TOWN COMMON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WAS
MOSTLY TREE DAMAGE NOTED...INCLUDING ONE LARGE TREE UPROOTED AS
WELL AS TREE TOPS SNAPPED AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED LATER TODAY.

450. MAweatherboy1
11:18 AM CDT on June 24, 2015
0
+
A follow up to a post of mine from yesterday- the NWS office in Taunton, MA has confirmed that a brief EF0 tornado touched down in Wrentham, MA yesterday, right in the town common area. Wrentham is my hometown, with the common being about a mile from my house. Just glad it wasn't worse! Much nicer weather today behind the front.

I worked at Crosby Valve some 30 years in Wrentham near the center. Very nice town. I'm glad damage was limited.
Quoting 442. OldLeatherneck:



You must be present to place bids for the silent auction. My wife posted pictures of some of the artwork donated by artists in our community on Facebook. She has had request from friends all over the country to place bids on their behalf.


Please tell your wife I said thank you Devil Dog!
With shear forecast to reach 90 knots across the Caribbean, and with surface pressures still expected to peak at 4 standard deviations above average later this week, the prospects for development in the tropical Atlantic continue to look slim to none.

A strong MJO pulse pushing across the Pacific should enter our part of the globe in early to mid-July. Maybe activity will pick up then.


Quoting 427. Naga5000:




The cool thing about conspiracy theories is that the very evidence needed to debunk the conspiracy will never been accepted by the conspiracists because it is itself part of the conspiracy.

Kinda makes it hard to have any rational conversation about it when the "other side" is completely irrational in it's reasoning.



I plus this because I was hoping you were talking about "Both Sides" and not just your side....
But I think I was wrong you are only looking thru color glasses..... j/s
I do agree with BearFoot again j/s
Taco :o)
Quoting 445. TCweatherman:

Thank you, I've never ventured out that far haha.


Their Radar History page is awesome, I use it to monitor rain at our hunting camp to know how good our food plots are going to do after we plant them.
Quoting 434. bwi:

Perfect weather today in Maryland. Relief from the heat. Last night's storms weren't severe in my area -- just a heavy thundershower.


more relief from heat is coming warm up tomorrow and Friday then weekend cool down
Quoting 453. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With shear forecast to reach 90 knots across the Caribbean, and with surface pressures still expected to peak at 4 standard deviations above average later this week, the prospects for development in the tropical Atlantic continue to look slim to none.

A strong MJO pulse pushing across the Pacific should enter our part of the globe in early to mid-July. Maybe activity will pick up then.



That should also increase the trade winds?
Quoting 456. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



more relief from heat is coming warm up tomorrow and Friday then weekend cool down


Weekend cooldown could be quite dramatic here in MD. Not fireplace cold, but rainy and cool (60s or low 70s and maybe cooler than that!).
Quoting 458. georgevandenberghe:



Weekend cooldown could be quite dramatic here in MD. Not fireplace cold, but rainy and cool (60s or low 70s and maybe cooler than that!).



Overnight lows potentially in the upper 50s.
Quoting 427. Naga5000:




The cool thing about conspiracy theories is that the very evidence needed to debunk the conspiracy will never been accepted by the conspiracists because it is itself part of the conspiracy.

Kinda makes it hard to have any rational conversation about it when the "other side" is completely irrational in it's reasoning.




According to a recent CNN article that referenced a 1970s study, by age 16, most people are firmly entrenched in their ideologies and sets of beliefs. No amount of evidence, facts, data, science, or arguments will change that. It seems to me that the only way forward is a cultural shift, and one on a global scale, brought about by modern technology, medicine, trade, or other current structures. It will be impossible to convince anyone already entrenched in an ideology on a personal level.
Quoting 429. HurriHistory:

In reference to Dr. Masters post from yesterday June 23rd (above) Hurricane Sandy WAS NOT the most powerful Hurricane in recorded history. Hurricane Wilma was in 2005 while south of Cuba and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was the most powerful Hurricane to ever strike land in the United States. And Sandy did NOT hit the New Jersey coast as a Hurricane. It came ashore as a very strong broad area of Low Pressure. So Dr. Masters you might want to correct these two statements you made in section-1 of yesterdays post.


The term "powerful" is not defined in his post, and he could be referring to Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) and not surface windspeed.
Quoting 459. Drakoen:
Overnight lows potentially in the upper 50s.
Maryland has seen temps as cold as 25F in June.
Quoting 454. taco2me61:


I plus this because I was hoping you were talking about "Both Sides" and not just your side....
But I think I was wrong you are only looking thru color glasses..... j/s
I do agree with BearFoot again j/s
Taco :o)


Look, I study science denial, there isn't two sides to the science of global warming and climate change. There is, however, multiple sides to the solution and policy, and an ever expanding field looking at the effects of climate change on many aspects of our weather.

I can't sit here and engage in the false equivalence fallacy, and I also know enough that trying to pick apart your "follow the funding" conspiracy will not result in you changing your mind. You want to talk about the sides of the debate, fine, let's talk about what we do to combat future climate change and global warming, what policies need to be implemented. If you want to talk about the whether or not the planet is warming and whether or not CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and conspiracies about scientists and researchers making up science because of money, then sorry, there isn't any rational discussion to be had there and I'm not going to pretend like there is.

My position comes from well established science, your position comes from the notion that the well established science is falsified. These aren't equal positions, in fact, they aren't even part of the same sport.
The ones in the North Central Atlantic catch my attention. Usually, one would think these are too far north to make landfall in the U.S. Isabel, Ike, and Dora (1964) come to mind.

Quoting 429. HurriHistory:

In reference to Dr. Masters post from yesterday June 23rd (above) Hurricane Sandy WAS NOT the most powerful Hurricane in recorded history. Hurricane Wilma was in 2005 while south of Cuba and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was the most powerful Hurricane to ever strike land in the United States. And Sandy did NOT hit the New Jersey coast as a Hurricane. It came ashore as a very strong broad area of Low Pressure. So Dr. Masters you might want to correct these two statements you made in section-1 of yesterdays post.


Nowhere in his post does Dr. Masters proclaim Sandy made landfall as a hurricane. He said she brought hurricane force winds to New Jersey which is entirely accurate. Also, Sandy could be considered the most powerful hurricane in recorded history regarding her size and wind radius. I think your post trying to correct Dr. Masters was unnecessary and disrespectful.
Quoting 460. LongIslandBeaches:



According to a recent CNN article that referenced a 1970s study, by age 16, most people are firmly entrenched in their ideologies and sets of beliefs. No amount of evidence, facts, data, science, or arguments will change that. It seems to me that the only way forward is a cultural shift, and one on a global scale, brought about by modern technology, medicine, trade, or other current structures. It will be impossible to convince anyone already entrenched in an ideology on a personal level.


I'm not looking to change someones mind, I'm looking to provide accurate information to those who haven't made up their minds. Beyond that, change requires the marginalization of outlandish ideas that do not, and never have existed on an equal playing field as the science itself. If one of our resident "skeptics" has something to add, some piece of evidenced gleaned through the scientific process, then it can be treated as such. Science challenges itself, that's how it is constructed. But proclamations of conspiracy and non acceptance because of self identity, or even links to science denial blogs and websites are not evidence on par with what is created through the scientific process and deserves to be outed for the pseudo evidence it is plain and simple, we wouldn't want true skeptics or fence sitters to continue the misplaced idea that those things are equal to science.
The monster is waking up?

Quoting 462. BaltimoreBrian:

Maryland has seen temps as cold as 25F in June.


I think that the record lows for June for many Mid-Atlantic/New England areas away from the immediate coast would surprise a lot of people. For example, Concord, NH has recorded lows in the 30's right through the end of June and low 40's right through July. Concord is a low elevation location in the south central part of the state. If one were to go up into the high mountain valleys in the northern part of the state, you would see record lows in the upper 20's for almost any date in the summer months.
Quoting 466. Naga5000:



I'm not looking to change someones mind, I'm looking to provide accurate information to those who haven't made up their minds. Beyond that, change requires the marginalization of outlandish ideas that do not, and never have existed on an equal playing field as the science itself. If one of our resident "skeptics" has something to add, some piece of evidenced gleaned through the scientific process, then it can be treated as such. Science challenges itself, that's how it is constructed. But proclamations of conspiracy and non acceptance because of self identity, or even links to science denial blogs and websites are not evidence on par with what is created through the scientific process and deserves to be outed for the pseudo evidence it is plain and simple, we wouldn't want true skeptics or fence sitters to continue the misplaced idea that those things are equal to science.


Completely agree. I wasn't even trying to imply that you (or anyone else, for that matter) were wasting your time. Simply an observation (and, if the 1970s study is to be believed, a relatively old one) that a set of firmly entrenched ideologies will invariably stand tall against the winds of data and evidence. There is always a reason "why" the data and evidence is wrong. In fact, it's almost the American way to be contrarian for contrarian's purposes. (Apologies if the implied parties aren't American.)
Numerous tornadoes, including quite a few strong to significant ones, have been confirmed over the past few days. You can keep track of them over on the Wikipedia page that is constantly being updated:

Link
Quoting 468. tlawson48:
I think that the record lows for June for many Mid-Atlantic/New England areas away from the immediate coast would surprise a lot of people. For example, Concord, NH has recorded lows in the 30's right through the end of June and low 40's right through July. Concord is a low elevation location in the south central part of the state. If one were to go up into the high mountain valleys in the northern part of the state, you would see record lows in the upper 20's for almost any date in the summer months.
Florida has seen upper 40s in July although not in August.
Quoting 463. Naga5000:



Look, I study science denial, there isn't two sides to the science of global warming and climate change. There is, however, multiple sides to the solution and policy, and an ever expanding field looking at the effects of climate change on many aspects of our weather.

I can't sit here and engage in the false equivalence fallacy, and I also know enough that trying to pick apart your "follow the funding" conspiracy will not result in you changing your mind. You want to talk about the sides of the debate, fine, let's talk about what we do to combat future climate change and global warming, what policies need to be implemented. If you want to talk about the whether or not the planet is warming and whether or not CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and conspiracies about scientists and researchers making up science because of money, then sorry, there isn't any rational discussion to be had there and I'm not going to pretend like there is.

My position comes from well established science, your position comes from the notion that the well established science is falsified. These aren't equal positions, in fact, they aren't even part of the same sport.



"WOW Really"
You said that there is only one side to this..... "Really"
NO there is "Always Two Sides To Everything". Although you want everyone to only hear your side
and no one else is supposed to even dispute that. Look "Sport" you and I are on different sides of this.
and to say there is only one side..... hmmmmm I didn't say look at only my side of this nor did I attack
anyone that did not believe. Good Grief Sport what I am saying is "There are just as many on your side as is on my side...... There Always will be.....
That's Fact.......

Taco :o)
Quoting 459. Drakoen:



Overnight lows potentially in the upper 50s.
Anything is better than upper 70's to low 80's
Quoting 466. Naga5000:



I'm not looking to change someones mind, I'm looking to provide accurate information to those who haven't made up their minds. Beyond that, change requires the marginalization of outlandish ideas that do not, and never have existed on an equal playing field as the science itself. If one of our resident "skeptics" has something to add, some piece of evidenced gleaned through the scientific process, then it can be treated as such. Science challenges itself, that's how it is constructed. But proclamations of conspiracy and non acceptance because of self identity, or even links to science denial blogs and websites are not evidence on par with what is created through the scientific process and deserves to be outed for the pseudo evidence it is plain and simple, we wouldn't want true skeptics or fence sitters to continue the misplaced idea that those things are equal to science.


Where do I fit if my opinion/set of beliefs is constantly changing as I learn more about everything? I find that this drives people absolutely nuts as it comes across as wishy-washy. I find that hard and fast beliefs are only beneficial if they happen to be popular at that time. All decisions are based on the information present. As society shifts away from certain beliefs, one can end up spending a tremendous amount of energy defending something that is to no benefit to anyone other then themselves. This then comes across as stubborn and argumentative.
Quoting 462. BaltimoreBrian:

Maryland has seen temps as cold as 25F in June.


DC metro suburbs had plant damaging frost in poor air drainage locations on June 7, 1977, an otherwise hot summer.
This was confined to the worst frost holes but it was in populated suburbs, not way out in the sticks.. this reported by a few people in a mesonet that was active in the 1970s. One participant in a stream valley had his beans killed by frost.

I am very careful and have not had damaging spring frost so no records. I have seen groundfrost in my garden on windrows and mulched surfaces as late as May 23, 2002. I had thriving tomatoes, corn and beans out, no damage to any because they weren't mulched and bare soil emitted IR radiation to keep them above freezing. I got a nip May 11 (I think) 2010 of potted bean transplants in a flat on mulch.. minor damage. 2010 was overall one of my warmest springs.
Quoting 461. nrtiwlnvragn:



The term "powerful" is not defined in his post, and he could be referring to Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) and not surface windspeed.
The word powerful does not have to be defined. Powerful means powerful and that's all there is to it. Sure we could come up with hidden meanings for thousands of words if we wanted to but I'm sure he was referring to wind speed and pressure. No need to use any circumlocution in defense of Dr. Masters. He could have meant a entire bevy of other technical things besides Integrated Kinetic Energy also. But lets keep it real ok.
Quoting 429. HurriHistory:

In reference to Dr. Masters post from yesterday June 23rd (above) Hurricane Sandy WAS NOT the most powerful Hurricane in recorded history. Hurricane Wilma was in 2005 while south of Cuba and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was the most powerful Hurricane to ever strike land in the United States. And Sandy did NOT hit the New Jersey coast as a Hurricane. It came ashore as a very strong broad area of Low Pressure. So Dr. Masters you might want to correct these two statements you made in section-1 of yesterdays post.
In the last recon measurements taken of Sandy before it came ashore it was still a warm-core system. I always thought the NHC had to do a lot of "hand-waving" in their post-season review to justify calling Sandy extra-tropical at landfall. It was especially strange that with a hurricane moving parallel the US East Coast, no hurricane watches or warnings were ever issued for the CONUS, only for the Bahamas (,Jamaica and Cuba).
Quoting 469. LongIslandBeaches:



Completely agree. I wasn't even trying to imply that you (or anyone else, for that matter) were wasting your time. Simply an observation (and, if the 1970s study is to be believed, a relatively old one) that a set of firmly entrenched ideologies will invariably stand tall against the winds of data and evidence. There is always a reason "why" the data and evidence is wrong. In fact, it's almost the American way to be contrarian for contrarian's purposes. (Apologies if the implied parties aren't American.)


No worries, I didn't think you were. Ideology is deeply rooted, and there are always going to be people who deny in the face of facts. The Flat Earthers still exist, there are HIV causes AIDS deniers, there are people who think root canals cause autoimmune disorders, the list, especially in medicine goes on and on.

If you want to delve in the depths of what seems to behind the mistrust of scientists and scientific facts, check out Laboratory Life: The Construction of Scientific Facts this book explaining how we create knowledge is also, ironically, the basis for why some are unable to accept scientific knowledge.

As Latour puts it: “Entire Ph.D. programs are still running to make sure that good American kids are learning the hard way that facts are made up, that there is no such thing as natural, unmediated, unbiased access to truth . . . while dangerous extremists are using the very same argument of social construction to destroy hard-won evidence that could save our lives.”

Quoting 473. taco2me61:



"WOW Really"
You said that there is only one side to this..... "Really"
NO there is "Always Two Sides To Everything". Although you want everyone to only hear your side
and no one else is supposed to even dispute that. Look "Sport" you and I are on different sides of this.
and to say there is only one side..... hmmmmm I didn't say look at only my side of this nor did I attack
anyone that did not believe. Good Grief Sport what I am saying is "There are just as many on your side as is on my side...... There Always will be.....
That's Fact.......

Taco :o)


Please tell me the other "side" of the physical properties of CO2. It cannot both be a greenhouse gas and not be a greenhouse gas. My "side" is that CO2 has this property, your "side" isn't a side, it's a rejection of my "side". It is a "non-side", an untenable position that only looks like a side of debate. In reality, it simply does not exist.

Quoting 473. taco2me61:

Good Grief Sport what I am saying is "There are just as many on your side as is on my side...... There Always will be.....
That's Fact.......

Taco :o)
I don't think so. That is, at least as far as credible, knowledgeable witnesses go:



I see this blog is no longer useful to discuss anything, just slam someone if they dare to question your post.
Philip Klotzbach:
EricBlake12 vertical shear in the Caribbean is currently higher than in the early 1970s according to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.
Quoting 465. Hazardousweather:



Nowhere in his post does Dr. Masters proclaim Sandy made landfall as a hurricane. He said she brought hurricane force winds to New Jersey which is entirely accurate. Also, Sandy could be considered the most powerful hurricane in recorded history regarding her size and wind radius. I think your post trying to correct Dr. Masters was unnecessary and disrespectful.
We don't measure a hurricane's intensity by it's size and wind radius. Some of the largest hurricanes on record were also the weakest. ( no more then a cat-1) This shows me you know very little about hurricanes. G-d forbid I correct Dr. Masters. Anyone can make a mistake. This also shows me that you don't know how to read very well. He states Sandy made landfall as a Hurricane in the first sentence. So put your glasses on. Correcting someone does not show disrespect. So go CRY ME A RIVER!
Quoting 473. taco2me61:



NO there is "Always Two Sides To Everything".



just because there's 'another side to the argument' doesn't mean that the 'other side' has any validity whatsoever. if somebody thinks the moon is made of cheese, it doesn't mean their argument carries any weight at all.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 475. tlawson48:



Where do I fit if my opinion/set of beliefs is constantly changing as I learn more about everything? I find that this drives people absolutely nuts as it comes across as wishy-washy. I find that hard and fast beliefs are only beneficial if they happen to be popular at that time. All decisions are based on the information present. As society shifts away from certain beliefs, one can end up spending a tremendous amount of energy defending something that is to no benefit to anyone other then themselves. This then comes across as stubborn and argumentative.


That's called normal, if new evidence is presented we analyze it and synthesize it into our world view. That's science. Like I mentioned, it really comes down to quality of evidence. If a guy I met standing in line tells me the capital of Florida is Plant City, I don't think I can accept that as part of my worldview even though I did learn that one guy in a line thinks the capital of Florida is Plant City. :)
Quoting 482. nrtiwlnvragn:

I see this blog is no longer useful to discuss anything, just slam someone if they dare to question your post.


What is it you would like to discuss?
Going to be a hot one in the west this week. It is expected to last into July. It's the last thing they need.



Quoting 484. HurriHistory:

We don't measure a hurricane's intensity by it's size and wind radius. Some of the largest hurricanes on record were also the weakest. ( no more then a cat-1) This shows me you know very little about hurricanes. G-d forbid I correct Dr. Masters. Anyone can make a mistake. This also shows me that you don't know how to read very well. He states Sandy made landfall as a Hurricane in the first sentence. So put your glasses on. Correcting someone does not show disrespect. So go CRY ME A RIVER!

Dr. Masters did not state Sandy made landfall as a Hurricane. He said Sandy brought hurricane-force winds to New Jersey. Put your glasses on and read again.
Quoting 478. guygee:

In the last recon measurements taken of Sandy before it came ashore it was still a warm-core system. I always thought the NHC had to do a lot of "hand-waving" in their post-season review to justify calling Sandy extra-tropical at landfall. It was especially strange that with a hurricane moving parallel the US East Coast, no hurricane watches or warnings were ever issued for the CONUS, only for the Bahamas (,Jamaica and Cuba).

I always thought the NHC should have posted Hurricane Warnings along the coast during the Sandy event as it might have saved more lives. But then again when Hurricane Irene slammed into Miami Dade County in 1999 Hurricane Warnings were not posted in the affected area as well. Only Tropical Storm Warnings. So go figure!
Quoting 491. HurriHistory:


I always thought the NHC should have posted Hurricane Warnings along the coast during the Sandy event as it might have saved more lives. But then again when Hurricane Irene slammed into Miami Dade County in 1999 Hurricane Warnings were not posted in the affected area as well. Only Tropical Storm Warnings. So go figure!


"While moving through the Florida Keys, Irene produced a storm surge of up to 2.3 feet (0.7 m) in Key Vaca, while Key West reported a surge of 1.5 feet (0.5 m). The hurricane produced sustained winds peaking at 79 mph (127 km/h); it also produced strong gusts, the strongest of which was clocked at 102 mph (164 km/h) at Big Pine Key.[1] Irene produced heavy rainfall in the Keys, including 12 inches (305 mm) of rain in Key West. The rainfall flooded roads throughout the Keys, prompting officials to close 50 miles (80 km) of U.S. Highway 1. Irene spawned a tornado in Islamorada, causing heavy damage to three houses. Moderate wind gusts caused power outages throughout the Keys, but damage was overall minor.[13]

Despite moving across the state as a minimal hurricane, there were no reports of hurricane-force winds on mainland Florida. The highest official recorded wind report was 60 mph (97 km/h) in Miami Beach, while the highest accurate wind gust was 71 mph (114 km/h) in Vero Beach. In addition to the National Weather Service Reports, the South Florida Water Management District reported higher wind gusts near Lake Okeechobee of up to 93 mph (150 km/h) in Belle Glade, though these were likely caused by small-scale meso-cyclone-induced downbursts.["
Quoting 489. Grothar:

Going to be a hot one in the west this week. It is expected to last into July. It's the last thing they need.




yeah some places in the interior could see highs in low 40c range
Quoting 395. Barefootontherocks:

I imagine those other posters have also twisted my words. I can't see their comments, and I won't look. Mostly I've found in the past, comments back to me are personal attacks based on the fact I do not accept that which does not make sense to me within my own self, who I am. No amount of insult or argument will change that.

Therefore, what you believe trumps the actual evidence in your opinion, and you will stick your fingers in your ears when confronted with the actual evidence. Good luck with that. lol
496. vis0

Quoting 372. sar2401:

Dr.Gray.understands.the.science.of.a.keyboard.tho ugh.
LOGICAL, every•body•is•turning•into•kirk, thanks binary  islander101010   ; - )
Quoting 473. taco2me61:



"WOW Really"
You said that there is only one side to this..... "Really"
NO there is "Always Two Sides To Everything". Although you want everyone to only hear your side
and no one else is supposed to even dispute that. Look "Sport" you and I are on different sides of this.
and to say there is only one side..... hmmmmm I didn't say look at only my side of this nor did I attack
anyone that did not believe. Good Grief Sport what I am saying is "There are just as many on your side as is on my side...... There Always will be.....
That's Fact.......

Taco :o)


Sure there are two sides to everything for instance the other side of Truth is a Lie ..... The other side of Right is Wrong .....

That doesn't give Lying and being Wrong any validity .....
Quoting 479. Naga5000:



No worries, I didn't think you were. Ideology is deeply rooted, and there are always going to be people who deny in the face of facts. The Flat Earthers still exist, there are HIV causes AIDS deniers, there are people who think root canals cause autoimmune disorders, the list, especially in medicine goes on and on.

If you want to delve in the depths of what seems to behind the mistrust of scientists and scientific facts, check out Laboratory Life: The Construction of Scientific Facts this book explaining how we create knowledge is also, ironically, the basis for why some are unable to accept scientific knowledge.

As Latour puts it: “Entire Ph.D. programs are still running to make sure that good American kids are learning the hard way that facts are made up, that there is no such thing as natural, unmediated, unbiased access to truth . . . while dangerous extremists are using the very same argument of social construction to destroy hard-won evidence that could save our lives.”




and the ones that concern me the most are NOT the deniers as they at a minimum are aware that something is occurring. My biggest worry are those that are oblivious to the facts and could care less even when presented on a silver platter. Ideology (my bold up above) to some and unfortunately too many, is deeply rooted in the latest fashions being worn on a red carpet somewhere. How do we reach them?
Hey watch this video very funny
http://opranks.com/8-water-tricks-thatll-melt-you r-mind-watch-video/