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Long-Lived Bill Meets its Demise in Mid-Atlantic

By: Bob Henson 4:37 AM GMT on June 22, 2015

The books have finally been closed on Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill, which dumped heavy rain and clung to life as an identifiable system during a trek of more than 1,000 inland miles. The last advisory on Bill was issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at 8:00 am EDT Sunday, almost five days after the cyclone made landfall on Matagorda Island, Texas, as a 60-mph tropical storm at 11:55 am CDT Tuesday, June 16. The poorly defined circulation associated with Bill was located on Sunday morning about halfway between Baltimore and Philadelphia, with maximum sustained winds a paltry 10 mph. Bill wasn’t designated as a tropical storm until 10:00 pm CDT on Monday, June 15, so an impressive 89% of Bill’s lifespan as a named entity (115 of 129 hours) took place inland. The National Hurricane Center handed off responsibility for Tropical Depression Bill to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center at 4:00 am CDT Wednesday morning, when Bill was located south of Waco, TX. The system held together as a tropical depression much longer than expected--until 4:00 pm CDT Saturday afternoon (a total of 78 hours), when it was located about 65 miles NNW of Jackson, KY.

According to Weather Channel tropical expert Michael Lowry, the average post-landfall lifespan of 131 inland tropical cyclones since 1970 was just 36 hours, and only 12 of those systems lasted 78 hours or longer as inland tropical storms or depressions. The longest-lived was an unnamed, posthumously recognized tropical storm in mid-August 1987 that persisted for almost 7 days as a tropical cyclone after it made landfall, making only a brief dip into the northern Gulf along a track from Louisiana to Georgia.


Figure 1. This satellite/radar overlay from 8:30 am CDT Saturday, June 20, shows the still-robust fingerprint of clouds and thunderstorms around Bill--then still a tropical depression, although with some hybrid characteristics evident--as it moved along the Ohio Valley between Louisville and Cincinnati. Image credit: Greg Postel/Weather Channel.

Bill was especially robust on Wednesday afternoon and evening over the Texas/Oklahoma border area, where it produced isolated rainfall totals of more than a foot. As Bill drifted northward, it came under the influence of a weak upper-level trough that infused it with energy and allowed its moisture to stream northeastward. Some of Bill’s tenacity over Texas and Oklahoma may have resulted from the brown ocean effect, where extremely moist soils send large amounts of latent heat into the atmosphere. In the wake of Bill, yet another round of heavy thunderstorms fell over the border area around Lake Texoma on Sunday afternoon, pushing 60-day rainfall totals well into the phenomenal 35” - 40” range over several counties. Two people were rescued after a bridge collapse on Sunday afternoon along a farm-to-market road (FM 118) about 50 miles northeast of Dallas. The Red River at Gainesville, TX, reached a record crest of 42.05 feet on Friday, nearly swamping the Interstate 35 bridge before subsiding. The previous record crest of 40.08 feet occurred on May 31, 1987, during a well-established El Niño event, as is the case this year.


Figure 2. The Red River (separating Oklahoma and Texas) reached a record crest on Friday of 42.05 feet. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service/U.S. Geological Survey


Figure 3. Floodwaters from the Washita River inundate a bridge on State Highway 377 south of Tishomingo, OK. The nearby Cumberland Levee was breached on Sunday after being overtopped during the weekend, but the water was pouring into an unpopulated containment basin. Image credit: Tulsa District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Rains that jump ahead of tropical cyclones
Along with the downpours near its center, heavy rains also developed well northeast of Bill, as rich moisture was channeled ahead of the system along a frontal zone from Missouri to the Appalachians. While Bill’s center was still in Texas on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a large cluster of thunderstorms developed in south-central Missouri, which appears to have been an unusually early-in-the-season example of a predecessor rainfall event (PRE). A 2010 study led by Tom Galarneau (then at the University at Albany, State University of New York, and now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research) analyzed 28 PREs that occurred during the period from 1995 to 2008. On average, these PREs occurred about 600 miles downstream and about 36 hours ahead of a tropical cyclone’s central rain shield. PREs tend to occur when an east-west frontal zone is intersected by, and strengthened by, an influx of deep tropical moisture in the southerly flow ahead of a tropical cyclone. “The presence of tropical cyclone moisture can turn a heavy rain event into a record-breaking high-impact heavy rain event,” noted the authors. Most of the PREs analyzed by Galarneau and colleagues occurred in August and September, and they were most common with stronger hurricanes. However, a couple of early-season PREs were associated with Tropical Storm Alberto (June 12, 2006) in the Carolinas, and Hurricane Dennis (July 9, 2005) in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Here are some of the heaviest rainfalls in each state near or ahead of Bill, as reported by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Sunday:

Texas: 12.50” (Montague)
Louisiana: 4.79” (Shreveport Regional Airport)
Oklahoma: 12.53” (3 miles E of Healdton)
Arkansas: 4.42” (2 miles SE of Rogers)
Kansas: 3.64” (Coffeyville Municipal Airport)
Missouri: 8.25” (4 miles WNW of Fordland)
Illinois: 5.14” (Cooks Mill)
Indiana: 6.72” (Grissom Air Force Base/Peru)
Kentucky: 3.54” (Henderson City)
Ohio: 5.11” (Lima/Allen County Airport)
Pennsylvania: 1.93” (Harrisburg/Capital City Airport)
West Virginia: 1.68” (Parkersburg/Wilson)
Virginia: 3.85” (Fort Belvoir/Davison Air Force Base)
District of Columbia: 2.37” (Reagan Washington National Airport)
Maryland: 2.50” (1 mile NNE of Cheltenham)

A quiet week ahead in the tropics
No major tropical developments are expected over the next several days, with wind shear relatively high across much of the deep tropics of the North Atlantic and North Pacific.

Thanks go to Sheldon Kusselson (NOAA/NESDIS) and Michael Lowry, Stu Ostro, and Greg Postel (The Weather Channel) for data, graphics, and perspective related to Bill.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Bill’s circulation from around 7:00 pm CDT on Friday, June 19, when the center was close to the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence. Thunderstorms along an inflow band extended to northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas (see circle and Figure 5 below). Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 5. Stu Ostro (The Weather Channel) photographed these thunderstorms on Friday evening associated with a convergence band in the Arklatex region, well to the southwest of Bill’s center. Image credit: Stu Ostro.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Update....
Thanks for the update Bob. Pretty amazing little storm Bill was.
Thanks, Doc. (sorry,... Bob ) Wow Bill was something.
ciaooo, Bill, you made history....
Thanks Bob. I ran out of adjectives days ago. Phenomenal is good. Interesting about the PRE's. I'd never heard of that before.
Thanks for the post, Bob. Amazing run for this storm, and an amazing quantity of disturbed and/or unprotected topsoil went bye-bye.
Hey PED!!!! Getting any rain lately?
Global warming is real science...but perhaps atmo 2.0(now with 10% extra water vapor) doesn't mean more frequent and powerful storms, or forcings from cartoonish hydras we see(over and over)...weather-wise it might mean something completely different, like Bill. We'll see.
.
But, keep screaming weather doom, and the insurance companies have and will continue to raise rates...though probabilities may be down apart from storm surge/rising oceans.
Why are you up so late? :-)

The brown ocean effect may make sense for Texas and Oklahoma given the heavy rains that preceded Bill. It makes less sense as Bill move east. It doesn't make sense as a reason why Bill lasted so long. Kentucky for example, as shown in the link below, was not saturated. This is the last 60 days and includes the rain from Bill. Even so, most of the state still has below normal rainfall. The same is true for West Virginia. So what made Bill so different? It's not like we've never had a 60 mph TS make landfall in Texas before. I suspect there was something different about Bill's structure before it made landfall, and whatever that is was partially responsible for it lasting so long. I hope there will be some research into Bill rather than just chalking it up to a brown ocean.

Link
Ex-Bill is still distinguishable moving to the south of Nova Scotia.
Quoting 8. CosmicEvents:

Global warming is real science...but perhaps atmo 2.0(now with 10% extra water vapor) doesn't mean more frequent and powerful storms, or forcings from cartoonish hydras we see(over and over)...weather-wise it might mean something completely different, like Bill. We'll see.
.
But, keep screaming weather doom, and the insurance companies have and will continue to raise rates...though probabilities may be down apart from storm surge/rising oceans.


While I agree that screaming weather doom is no good. A lot of insurance companies are going by actual losses which is why rates are so high. Flood insurance rates were revamped because the system was going broke. One of the reasons Florida has such a hard time with insurance and companies have to buy into "reinsurance" for themselves. If a big one hits, they won't make any money that year, but they won't go bankrupt either. And even with the high rates, they get caught by surprise. In a way, it is also greed that is doing this too.

And trust me, I am no warrior for the insurance companies either. Especially since I was essentially insurance priced out of my house. At least some of the reinsurance funds force companies to "put some away" for a rainy day as before they wouldn't and were going by yearly payouts vs. premiums.

Weather and the damage it creates is a definite insurance problem for property owners nationwide.
sar, did you happen to send me that email yet? Because if you did, I still haven't gotten it.
Quoting 11. Dakster:



While I agree that screaming weather doom is no good. A lot of insurance companies are going by actual losses which is why rates are so high. Flood insurance rates were revamped because the system was going broke. One of the reasons Florida has such a hard time with insurance and companies have to buy into "reinsurance" for themselves. If a big one hits, they won't make any money that year, but they won't go bankrupt either. And even with the high rates, they get caught by surprise. In a way, it is also greed that is doing this too.

And trust me, I am no warrior for the insurance companies either. Especially since I was essentially insurance priced out of my house. At least some of the reinsurance funds force companies to "put some away" for a rainy day as before they wouldn't and were going by yearly payouts vs. premiums.

Weather and the damage it creates is a definite insurance problem for property owners nationwide.
Flood insurance is a different thing. That, as I'm sure you know is federally subsidized. I finally, after decades, no longer have to buy flood insurance. My cost now zero, which is equal to my risk of flood weather-wise. But homeowner's insurance.....I'm getting priced out like you as my annual premium has gone up from .7% to 4% of appraised value...and I'm under no risk of storm surge loss, which accounts for much of the added (most destructive eva' in history) losses that the klaxons blow about. At this point my home could be destroyed 4 times in the next 100 years by wind and I'd be getting the right price. The klaxons have skewed the odds in favor of the insurance, or as you say more accurately, the re-insurance companies.
.
I apologize in advance for my mini-rant...I get grouchy when I have to write that home insurance check as I did today.
looks like bulletins for ARB02-2015 are in order now from IMD.

India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin
8:30 AM IST June 22 2015
========================

Vortex over east central Arabian Sea centered near 20.0N 67.2E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
DEPRESSION ARB02-2015
8:30 AM IST June 22 2015
=======================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The low pressure area over northeast Arabian Sea concentrated into a depression and lays centered over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 20.0N 67.0E, about 320 km southwest of Porbandar.

It would slowly move west northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours.

According to latest satellite imagery, Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea between 16.5N to 22.0N and 59.0E to 68.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The central pressure of the depression is 992 hPa.

The lower level relative vorticity, low level convergence and upper level divergence in association with the system have increased during past 24 hours. However, the vertical wind shear is moderate to high around the system center. The Madden-Julian oscillation index is transiting from phase 4 to phase 5 with amplitude greater than one. The sea surface temperature is about 30C near the system center. The ocean thermal energy is 50-60 kj/cm2 around the system center and it significantly decreases towards the west. Under these conditions, the system may intensify further into a deep depression. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 24.0N and an anticyclonic circulation lies to the northwest of the system center. Under the influence of this ridge, the upper tropospheric winds are easterlies over the region. The mean steering wind between 700 HPA to 200 HPA suggests slow west northwest movement. A trough in mid-latitude westerlies will approach and influence the system after 24 hours limiting its westward movement and may steer it northeastwards towards Gujarat coast.
Lets hope that the combination of this ULL and a wave will bring us a significant amount of rain needed to end the drought....

few hours until landfall over Hainan Island in this current advisory track..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (1508)
15:00 PM JST June 22 2015
==========================
In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kujira (990 hPa) located at 18.5N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 20.4N 110.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf Of Tonkin
48 HRS: 22.2N 107.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China
Quoting 9. sar2401:

Why are you up so late? :-)

The brown ocean effect may make sense for Texas and Oklahoma given the heavy rains that preceded Bill. It makes less sense as Bill move east. It doesn't make sense as a reason why Bill lasted so long. Kentucky for example, as shown in the link below, was not saturated. This is the last 60 days and includes the rain from Bill. Even so, most of the state still has below normal rainfall. The same is true for West Virginia. So what made Bill so different? It's not like we've never had a 60 mph TS make landfall in Texas before. I suspect there was something different about Bill's structure before it made landfall, and whatever that is was partially responsible for it lasting so long. I hope there will be some research into Bill rather than just chalking it up to a brown ocean.

Link



Agree . Bill had a very broad elongated circulation early in the game and consolidated into the more "classic" TS form rather quickly. Maybe this had something to do with the long life.
Here's an interesting read on hard to ID Tropical System in 1987


Link
Thanks for the final report on dear wet Bill!
Here some news vom Pakistan, India and the Indian Ocean ...

Heat wave kills more than 120 in Pakistan's Karachi
Source: Reuters - Mon, 22 Jun 2015 05:40 GMT
KARACHI, June 22 (Reuters) - An intense heat wave killed more than 120 people over the weekend in Pakistan's southern city of Karachi, officials said on Monday, as the electricity grid crashed during the first days of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
The outages hit large portions of Pakistan's financial heart and home to 20 million people, where residents lit bonfires in protest.
"Hundreds of patients suffering from the heat wave are being treated at government hospitals," Saeed Mangnejo, health secretary for the province of Sindh, told Reuters.
Temperature soared to 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) on Saturday and hovered at 43 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit) on Sunday, coinciding with a surge of demand for power as families observed Ramadan, when Muslims fast during daylight hours. ...


Arabian Sea erupts a second time; will keep monsoon in full cry this week
VINSON KURIAN, The Hindu Business Line, June 21, 2015, Thiruvananthapuram:
The monsoon is set to maintain its momentum this week, with the Arabian Sea rustling up activity yet again after hoisting cyclone 'Ashobaa' earlier this month.
A low-pressure area has materialised off the Gujarat coast and is poised to intensify, threatening another round of heavy to very heavy rain over the neighbourhood.
Towards the other end, a prevailing monsoon depression has crossed the south Odisha coast and is parked over Sambalpur, spraying heavy rain all around east India.
The Met Department says the depression will start weakening during the next 24 hours, only because the 'low' off Gujarat will scale up. ...


Monsoon arrives, heavy rain in 48 hours
TNN | Jun 22, 2015, 02.37 AM IST


Some uproar of tropical moisture in the Indian Ocean and WPac.
Strike 3! A third CME raises Watch to G3 level for 22 June
published: Sunday, June 21, 2015 17:15 UTC
A third, much faster coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to catch up with the two observed on 18 and 19 June bringing them all to Earth in close succession by the UTC day of 22 June 2015. The CME was associated with an R1-Minor flare event observed at 0142 UTC (9:21 pm ET) from Sunspot Region 12371 located near center disk. A G3-Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for 22 June as well as a G2-Moderate Watch for 23 June as the CMEs make their way past Earth. These Watches supersede all prior forecasts. Stay tuned to the website to see how the activity unfolds!


(Saved a day later.)

Have a nice Monday, everyone!
Been wonderin Kori where the heck you been man!
Quoting 13. CosmicEvents:

Flood insurance is a different thing. That, as I'm sure you know is federally subsidized. I finally, after decades, no longer have to buy flood insurance. My cost now zero, which is equal to my risk of flood weather-wise. But homeowner's insurance.....I'm getting priced out like you as my annual premium has gone up from .7% to 4% of appraised value...and I'm under no risk of storm surge loss, which accounts for much of the added (most destructive eva' in history) losses that the klaxons blow about. At this point my home could be destroyed 4 times in the next 100 years by wind and I'd be getting the right price. The klaxons have skewed the odds in favor of the insurance, or as you say more accurately, the re-insurance companies.
.
I apologize in advance for my mini-rant...I get grouchy when I have to write that home insurance check as I did today.


Since 2008 my premium went up 400%. No problem from me on your rant. I don't have to get flood either.

Quoting 9. sar2401:

Why are you up so late? :-)

The brown ocean effect may make sense for Texas and Oklahoma given the heavy rains that preceded Bill. It makes less sense as Bill move east. It doesn't make sense as a reason why Bill lasted so long. Kentucky for example, as shown in the link below, was not saturated. This is the last 60 days and includes the rain from Bill. Even so, most of the state still has below normal rainfall. The same is true for West Virginia. So what made Bill so different? It's not like we've never had a 60 mph TS make landfall in Texas before. I suspect there was something different about Bill's structure before it made landfall, and whatever that is was partially responsible for it lasting so long. I hope there will be some research into Bill rather than just chalking it up to a brown ocean.

Link



I'm sure Bill will be a candidate for further research, sar. Some of the factors that led to Bill's longevity & structure are right there in Mr. Henson's excellent summary-in addition to whatever contribution brown-ocean may have made.

"...it came under the influence of a weak upper-level trough that infused it with energy and allowed its moisture to stream northeastward..."

"...an east-west frontal zone is intersected by, and strengthened by, an influx of deep tropical moisture in the southerly flow ahead of a tropical cyclone..."

From Fig 1.
"...the still-robust fingerprint of clouds and thunderstorms around Bill--then still a tropical depression, although with some hybrid characteristics evident--as it moved along the Ohio Valley between Louisville and Cincinnati..."

I think you also have to consider the degree of deep-layer tropical moisture (PW values AOA climatological maximums) originating from the Gulf/Caribbean as a factor.
still.snow..telluride.co.
WP: TS Kujira is impacting Hanian Island and will be weakening soon. It looked better organized earlier but now it looks like it will be weakening as it nears Southern China.

Read more...
"Large streams from little fountains flow, Tall oaks from little acorns grow."



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MN...PART OF NRN IA...AND SOUTHWEST WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...

VALID 220953Z - 221200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH SOME HAIL ATTENDANT TO THE STORMS SPREADING ACROSS ERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN...AND NEW STORMS FORMING N/NE OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA. ALTHOUGH THE BOWING STRUCTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH PIERRE SD AROUND 08Z WITH A WIND GUST OF 70 KT HAD WEAKENED...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE STORMS IN SERN SD MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE AND TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT NRN IA. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF NRN IA..SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI.

DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A HAIL THREAT IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL IA AS RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0945Z SUGGESTED A NEW DEVELOPING BOW STRUCTURE IN SOUTHEAST SD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED INTO SERN SD AND FAR SWRN MN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F IN THESE AREAS AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ UP TO 50-60 KT FROM NEB INTO SRN MN IS RESULTING IN AN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO IA AND SRN AND CENTRAL MN. THIS COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW 328 INTO NRN IA...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST WI.

THE DEVELOPING BOW WITH THE CAPABILITY FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ADVANCE EWD AT 50+ KT AS CURRENTLY DETECTED BY THE FSD WSR-88D...REACHING WORTHINGTON MN BY 11Z AND FAIRMONT MN BY 12Z. THIS TRACK PLACES THE BOW ALONG A MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM SERN SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/22/2015
31. vis0
This VID is to show BILL though it starts off with a very small sample of "treebreeze"
"Treebreeze" being the title i've given to my VIDs show the portable ml-d bending wind.(see the (so far) other 3 VIDs on my last active blog "ml-d RESET PAGE, page3)

REMEMBER i'M hoping to post the VIDs in HQ/HD but am posting then at low quality to keep my promise to sar2401 that he can see them soon rather than later.

Watch as the music plays you might see the winds acting like waves as the winds USUALLY (NOT ALWAYS) come from W to E when live music or certain continuous revving of engines happens. Sorry for the audio quality as i'm over 200 feet away from where the music was originating plus its an omni- mic.

VID INCLUDES BILL's after the uh 8 hr "eye" went by? you even see its mostly sunny.
Music was captured in the late AM EDT while from 2-3pm give or take half an hour it was blue sky clear.
http://youtu.be/6tCXhLsm2w4(320x240, below 504x376 )




ON TOPIC:: You see (@3m36s or kind of see,AGAIN LOW QUALITY VID otherwise i could not upload it) the sudden downpour. which began 'bout 50 secs before i began to e-capture. Look at the trees to the far right and see the waves or curtain of rain passing by or wait @4m28s till you see the view looking N/NE up 2nd AVE and 3 buildings at 37 & 2nd i'm at 27th & 2nd) all above 40 stories in height 15 blocks away are covered by the rain shield)
i was told by a person whom lives on 6th Ave that the west side of Manhattan got barely rained ob that it seems to start from 5th Ave eastward, i'm 3 Aves east of 5th ave, hence you see its not too hard over me but a block east or north its heavy, tropical curtain of rain like.

At the end you see to the west (actually WNW) its clear but towards the East (ESE, Brooklyn) its very overcast.

Lighting? heard no thunder (heard a faint rumble, could've been my hungry stomach...didn't have my breakfast burrito  : - Ъ  Δ ...so close i can taste it) but saw a flash but since there is a traffic camera with flash i'm not sure if it was lightning. i state it cause i heard a few people moan as the flash happened so people moan on lightning not traffic camera flashes...unless its Grothar getting the ticket.

finally of all people i should be the last to give either Dr. Masters or Mr Henson title tips, but how 'bout, Long-Lived Bill Meets its Demise in Mid-Atlantic... (just for artistic licensing sake)

unusual..8am....GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL REOCCUR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Lightning here across my area has been just downright ridiculous since last Thursday. The amount of lightning lately is probably the worst I've ever seen.

This view was thru a screen enclosure from west Orlando over the weekend.





34. vis0
As to the blog's PREs, my late Grandfather Perdo Ortiz* told be 'bout PREs he learned of as a farmer he studied the skies and was told by his father which means it was known at least 160 yrs ago. Grandpa told me  when i was a youngster ~1974 but as with the lightnimng he also saw fused in sand when he told people in San German, Puerto Rico (other towns near by too) he was told since he had no science degree his words meant zero...remind ya of anyone???



 *(Ortiz de Mojeca or "de Mojica", had to change i to e as facebook first didn't allow me to use my real name as their initials spell G O d * M (* for a) then after FB responded that it was okay to to use "G o D Mojica" someone else already had that name)
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

Lightning here across my area has been just downright ridiculous since last Thursday. The amount of lightning lately is probably the worst I've ever seen.

This view was thru a screen enclosure from west Orlando over the weekend.






I was down in Coral Springs, Broward County on Father's Day and could not believe how dry it is on the eastern side. The grass is brown amidst desert like conditions. Same here in Port St. Lucie. It is supposed to be dry all week with the exception of possible interior afternoon storms. We don't need lightning to strike dried out vegetation.

Anyway change will come next week as the high finally leaves us and we should be getting much precipitation from the southwest.
Quoting 35. rmbjoe1954:



I was down in Coral Springs, Broward County on Father's Day and could not believe how dry it is on the eastern side. The grass is brown amidst desert like conditions. Same here in Port St. Lucie. It is supposed to be dry all week with the exception of possible interior afternoon storms. We don't need lightning to strike dried out vegetation.

Anyway change will come next week as the high finally leaves us and we should be getting much precipitation from the southwest.



Pattern changes this week so Eastern FL will also get in on the action too. When it comes get ready as these storms have been insane! Also we hit 100 for the first time in 17 years back on Friday in Orlando. Hottest in 17 years is really causing a fire storm with this lightning activity.
Nice long lasting rains now over Germany thanks to low "Otto", even in my place near Frankfurt. This should really help to diminish the deficit of precipitation of many months in central Germany :-) - and currently models predict a heatwave for next week to boot. The current very wet weather isn't welcome for our last midsummer festival day with fireworks this evening in Mainz though ...

38. vis0

Quoting 31. vis0:

This VID is to show BILL though it starts off with a very small sample of "treebreeze"
"Treebreeze" being the title i've given to my VIDs show the portable ml-d bending wind.(see the (so far) other 3 VIDs on my last active blog "ml-d RESET PAGE, page3)

REMEMBER i'M hoping to post the VIDs in HQ/HD but am posting then at low quality to keep my promise to sar2401 that he can see them soon rather than later.

Watch as the music plays you might see the winds acting like waves as the winds USUALLY (NOT ALWAYS) come from W to E when live music or certain continuous revving of engines happens. Sorry for the audio quality as i'm over 200 feet away from where the music was originating plus its an omni- mic.

VID INCLUDES BILL's after the uh 8 hr "eye" went by? you even see its mostly sunny.
Music was captured in the late AM EDT while from 2-3pm give or take half an hour it was blue sky clear.
http://youtu.be/6tCXhLsm2w4(320x240, below 504x376 )




ON TOPIC:: You see (@3m36s or kind of see,AGAIN LOW QUALITY VID otherwise i could not upload it) the sudden downpour. which began 'bout 50 secs before i began to e-capture. Look at the trees to the far right and see the waves or curtain of rain passing by or wait @4m28s till you see the view looking N/NE up 2nd AVE and 3 buildings at 37 & 2nd i'm at 27th & 2nd) all above 40 stories in height 15 blocks away are covered by the rain shield)
i was told by a person whom lives on 6th Ave that the west side of Manhattan got barely rained ob that it seems to start from 5th Ave eastward, i'm 3 Aves east of 5th ave, hence you see its not too hard over me but a block east or north its heavy, tropical curtain of rain like.

At the end you see to the west (actually WNW) its clear but towards the East (ESE, Brooklyn) its very overcast.

Lighting? heard no thunder (heard a faint rumble, could've been my hungry stomach...didn't have my breakfast burrito  : - Ъ  Δ ...so close i can taste it) but saw a flash but since there is a traffic camera with flash i'm not sure if it was lightning. i state it cause i heard a few people moan as the flash happened so people moan on lightning not traffic camera flashes...unless its Grothar getting the ticket.

finally of all people i should be the last to give either Dr. Masters or Mr Henson title tips, but how 'bout, Long-Lived Bill Meets its Demise in Mid-Atlantic... (just for artistic licensing sake)


footnote:: the reason i do not stick the camera out the window too much,. besides getting hit by lightning during a storm is as i've told sar2401 that due to the permanent ml-d (device that influences physics in this use weather influencing device) once on gets to a < than few inches of any wall with the apartments frame (i know how many ~inches but keep that info to myself) it breaks or lowers the ml-d affect temporarily and if i break the window frame barrier it really causes the ml-d to send energy via the ground instead of the air/gases/atmospheres so you see me near the window puling back watch the trees react as to stop moving as i get too close to window.

Loop
Start playing when buffered ( Only Notify) -
% Smart Buffer
Estimated Time: Will start buffering when initialized.
Global PreferencesLoopStart playing when buffered ( Only Notify) - % Smart BufferEstimated Time: Global Preferences
Quoting 35. rmbjoe1954:



I was down in Coral Springs, Broward County on Father's Day and could not believe how dry it is on the eastern side. The grass is brown amidst desert like conditions. Same here in Port St. Lucie. It is supposed to be dry all week with the exception of possible interior afternoon storms. We don't need lightning to strike dried out vegetation.

Anyway change will come next week as the high finally leaves us and we should be getting much precipitation from the southwest.


I was down in the Fort Lauderdale area a few weeks ago and observed the same. It’s really amazing that there have been no storms down there with temps and dew points being so high. I honestly can’t remember the last time I saw a thunderstorm in that area on radar. Well, I’ve had about 5 inches so far in June, but only 0.12” in the last 5 days, so I’m hoping to catch some storms today.
Quoting 39. tampabaymatt:



I was down in the Fort Lauderdale area a few weeks ago and observed the same. It’s really amazing that there have been no storms down there with temps and dew points being so high. I honestly can’t remember the last time I saw a thunderstorm in that area on radar. Well, I’ve had about 5 inches so far in June, but only 0.12” in the last 5 days, so I’m hoping to catch some storms today.


6.88" so far for June by me. These storms have been coming with a nasty punch too. I registered 102 yesterday OIA had 100 Friday. Again hottest in 17 years now across Interior FL. Very serious heat leading to serious lightning storms come evening.
Quoting 12. KoritheMan:

sar, did you happen to send me that email yet? Because if you did, I still haven't gotten it.
I see you have come back to blog with us again :)
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

Lightning here across my area has been just downright ridiculous since last Thursday. The amount of lightning lately is probably the worst I've ever seen.

This view was thru a screen enclosure from west Orlando over the weekend.








Lots of storms along the coast this morning. I've lived here a long time and it's hard for me to compare the amount of lightning now versus storms from 10-20-30 years ago. They all seem bad to me.
SOI expected to drop to lowest Summertime levels since 1997 in a few days on the daily index. Major pattern shift come late week across the US.

Euro for this Saturday


Pattern now.
Good Morning. A lull this period in terms of tropical activity in the E-Pac region and the normal high shear low wave activity in the Atlantic basin with the exception of the sheared wave clipping the NE section of the lesser antilles (below). They always need the rain this time of the year for the Caribbean but it looks like this wave is only going to deliver some to the Antigua to US Virgin Islands group of Islands.



On the Conus front, need to keep an eye on the Great Lakes region today:

In terms of the Great Lakes region, current severe t-storm-flash flood warnings in the Iowa-Minnesota border areas with the complex headed East:


Central Great Lakes sector loop

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop
Quoting 45. weathermanwannabe:

In terms of the Great Lakes region, current severe t-storm-flash flood warnings in the Iowa-Missouri border areas with the complex headed East:


Central Great Lakes sector loop

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


I think you mean the Iowa-Minnesota border.
Quoting 46. tampabaymatt:



I think you mean the Iowa-Minnesota border.


Corrected.............Thanks.
May ONI up to .88 up from .74 in April. So basically the May ONI came in @ 0.9.

2015 5 28.84 27.96 0.88
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 17m17 minutes ago
#ElNino continues to strengthen, w/largest anomalies in the east. Highest June Nino 3 value (1.8) since 1997 #climate


Nino 3.4 up to 1.4C
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (1508)
21:00 PM JST June 22 2015
==========================
Overland Hainan Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Kujira (985 hPa) located at 19.3N 110.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 21.4N 108.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf Of Tonkin
48 HRS: 23.0N 107.1E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China
I hope you guys in the NE US have enjoyed your Summer as a much cooler regime is about to take hold and could last thru the rest of Summer. El-Nino is beginning to really intensify causing a major pattern changes across the US record heat across the NW US and possible record cold across the NE US with 8 sigma temps on the way!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice Jun 21
The atmospheric ENSO index (AEI) now approaching 2.5 sigma in 2 weeks. Analogs to current state kills off summer.
Quoting 9. sar2401:

Why are you up so late? :-)

The brown ocean effect may make sense for Texas and Oklahoma given the heavy rains that preceded Bill. It makes less sense as Bill move east. It doesn't make sense as a reason why Bill lasted so long. Kentucky for example, as shown in the link below, was not saturated. This is the last 60 days and includes the rain from Bill. Even so, most of the state still has below normal rainfall. The same is true for West Virginia. So what made Bill so different? It's not like we've never had a 60 mph TS make landfall in Texas before. I suspect there was something different about Bill's structure before it made landfall, and whatever that is was partially responsible for it lasting so long. I hope there will be some research into Bill rather than just chalking it up to a brown ocean.

Link


Bill tracked along the western and northern sides of a mass of very hot and humid air. Could Bill's longevity be due, at least in part, to its tapping into this high octane fuel?
Quoting 11. Dakster:



While I agree that screaming weather doom is no good. A lot of insurance companies are going by actual losses which is why rates are so high. Flood insurance rates were revamped because the system was going broke. One of the reasons Florida has such a hard time with insurance and companies have to buy into "reinsurance" for themselves. If a big one hits, they won't make any money that year, but they won't go bankrupt either. And even with the high rates, they get caught by surprise. In a way, it is also greed that is doing this too.

And trust me, I am no warrior for the insurance companies either. Especially since I was essentially insurance priced out of my house. At least some of the reinsurance funds force companies to "put some away" for a rainy day as before they wouldn't and were going by yearly payouts vs. premiums.

Weather and the damage it creates is a definite insurance problem for property owners nationwide.
It's all about greed with the insurance companies, it's been since 92, that a hurricane made a direct impact on South Florida and the rates keep going up every year. You would think the insurance companies would be able to save and invest this money for future storms. I know South Florida is not the only area affected by natural disasters, so maybe an increase in rates is warranted in some area's to bring their cost of repairs up to the new building standards, but not down here, and yes Dakster I can see why you would leave here due to the rising rates. I am tempted too, but I love living here to much to leave.
Weather Channel just said this likely meets the criteria for a derecho:
Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:

I hope you guys in the NE US have enjoyed your Summer as a much cooler regime is about to take hold and could last thru the rest of Summer. El-Nino is beginning to really intensify causing a major pattern changes across the US record heat across the NW US and possible record cold across the NE US with -8 sigma temps on the way!

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Jun 21
The atmospheric ENSO index (AEI) now approaching +2.5 sigma in 2 weeks. Analogs to current state kills off summer.


-8 sigma? Seriously? According to Wolfram Alpha, the probality of such an event is less than one in one trillion. The Earth itself is about a trillion days old.
Quoting 55. ACSeattle:


-8 sigma? Seriously? According to Wolfram Alpha, the probality of such an event is less than one in one trillion. The Earth itself is about a trillion days old.


Plus.

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 Jun 21
@MJVentrice how can I order up some of those purples for Florida? :) 8 sigma?


This is some really cold air for late June Bubba.
Quoting 52. ACSeattle:


Bill tracked along the western and northern sides of a mass of very hot and humid air. Could Bill's longevity be due, at least in part, to its tapping into this high octane fuel?
Good morning AC..Bill became a much larger system as it was moving in to Texas, it was on a strengthening trend too....Large systems moving in from the gulf pull in absolutely huge amounts of moisture at all levels., and they can maintain the circulations for a long period, especially if the region is warm and moist. Many here have seen this happen before. The last real big event i remember was Hurricane Ike.
Not sure if this is the same wave??



00z UKMET

749

WTNT80 EGRR 220417



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.06.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 36.3N 72.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.06.2015 36.3N 72.6W WEAK
Friday, June 19, 2015 - Interstate 35 crossing Red River between Oklahoma and Texas, mid afternoon.


image credit CBS11 TV, Dallas.

Usual is lots of air between the bed and bridges as seen below. Background is a RR bridge.

"I 35 bridges" image credit: Google maps/Panoramio user peewee

Washita River's flow also reached a new record. Near Davis, OK I think, and probably further downstream also. I imagine its confluence with Red River was a sight to behold. (Add: Yesterday, there was heavy rainfall and FFW's along Red River still - and you can't blame ex-dBill.)

Thanks for the blog, Bob Henson!
Not sure what the UKMET model is forecasting with that wave but nothing on the horizon stateside from Noaa in the Atlantic in the short term. 144 hours is a long way out-not reliable that far out.





From Nashville,TN NWS..

AS WE START THE WORKWEEK...SUMMER LOOKS LIKE IT`S HERE...SO IF YOU
LIKE IT HOT...WE`VE GOT THE FORECAST FOR YOU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS RIDGE BEING ON THE ORDER OF 5950-5970DM.
COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 20-21 DEGREE C RANGE...WE
SHOULD BE SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ADD IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS AND
WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-108 DEGREE F
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...THERE LIKELY WON`T BE ANY RELIEF
EITHER...SO PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM HEAT ILLNESSES IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE.

THOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF A LITTLE THURSDAY...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS LINGERING IN THE LOW 90S...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR
EAST AND LEAVE IN ITS PLACE SOME GENERAL TROUGHINESS. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR AFTERNOON POPS TO RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITHOUT THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANY CONVECTION
THAT INITIATES WILL CARRY THE RISK OF SOME STRONG STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN BULLISH
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. THIS TROUGH COULD USHER IN A VERY UNSEASONABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ONE WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND EVERYTHING. SOME WIND
SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AROUND...SOME ORGANIZATION COULD ENSUE. WITH ALL OF THIS UNSTABLE
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...IF BOTH THE GFS AND EURO VERIFY...SEVERE
WEATHER WILL AT LEAST BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY.
BECAUSE FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE NOT VERY COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...I
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANYTHING TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ATTM...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES IF
THESE PARAMETERS PERSIST.

AGAIN...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...NOT ONLY WILL THUNDERSTORMS BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE A BREAK FROM THE MID-90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WITH THE BAD COMES
THE GOOD.
Quoting 61. hydrus:

From Nashville,TN NWS..

AS WE START THE WORKWEEK...SUMMER LOOKS LIKE IT`S HERE...SO IF YOU
LIKE IT HOT...WE`VE GOT THE FORECAST FOR YOU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS RIDGE BEING ON THE ORDER OF 5950-5970DM.
COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 20-21 DEGREE C RANGE...WE
SHOULD BE SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ADD IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS AND
WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-108 DEGREE F
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...THERE LIKELY WON`T BE ANY RELIEF
EITHER...SO PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM HEAT ILLNESSES IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE.

THOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF A LITTLE THURSDAY...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS LINGERING IN THE LOW 90S...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR
EAST AND LEAVE IN ITS PLACE SOME GENERAL TROUGHINESS. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR AFTERNOON POPS TO RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITHOUT THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANY CONVECTION
THAT INITIATES WILL CARRY THE RISK OF SOME STRONG STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN BULLISH
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. THIS TROUGH COULD USHER IN A VERY UNSEASONABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM...ONE WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND EVERYTHING. SOME WIND
SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AROUND...SOME ORGANIZATION COULD ENSUE. WITH ALL OF THIS UNSTABLE
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...IF BOTH THE GFS AND EURO VERIFY...SEVERE
WEATHER WILL AT LEAST BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY.
BECAUSE FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE NOT VERY COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...I
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANYTHING TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ATTM...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES IF
THESE PARAMETERS PERSIST.

AGAIN...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...NOT ONLY WILL THUNDERSTORMS BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE A BREAK FROM THE MID-90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WITH THE BAD COMES
THE GOOD.



Models are showing some very cool air diving south this weekend. Looks like lows in the 50's for you in the 6 to 8 day timeframe even 40's across the NE US!
Here are the current shear levels across the Atlantic per CIMMS; that wave would have to hold together all the way to Florida or the Bahamas for it to stand a chance at potential development in the long term........A long shot at best.

The latest weekly SST
departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 1.4ºC
Niño 3 1.8ºC
Niño 1+2 2.7ºC
June 22-28 is Lightning Awareness Week. Click on the link for info on how to protect you and yours from dangerous lightning.
Quoting 56. StormTrackerScott:



Plus.

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 Jun 21
@MJVentrice how can I order up some of those purples for Florida? :) 8 sigma?


This is some really cold air for late June Bubba.


Check the time stamp. That's 1:00 am EDT.
Quoting 60. weathermanwannabe:

Not sure what the UKMET model is forecasting with that wave but nothing on the horizon stateside from Noaa in the Atlantic:





Which wave is that product referring to?
Quoting 67. Climate175:

Which wave is that product referring to?


Have no clue....................Nothing of consequence in that vicinity at the moment.

Quoting 68. weathermanwannabe:



Have no clue....................Nothing in that vicinity at the moment.


Yea, I can't tell if it is that wave entangled with dry air, or the wave behind it.
Major WWB on the way and likely atleast a 2C El-Nino coming.

WOW!
Let's cross our finger, hopefully, the ULL will pull the rain over Puerto Rico, not northeast of the Leewards,...
Here are the first vis shots of the wave as it enters the Northern Lesser Antilles:



And the upper level TUTT cell centered over Puerto Rico that the wave is interacting with that is enhancing the convection:




The ULL is moving towards the WNW, pulling the wave towards the same direction, in a few days it will be located around 37 N, 73W, shear in the area will be low..

Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



Models are showing some very cool air diving south this weekend. Looks like lows in the 50's for you in the 6 to 8 day timeframe even 40's across the NE US!

How about here, just outside of Charleston, SC?? Don't think I can take many more 100 degree days this summer LOL!
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

And the upper level TUTT cell centered over Puerto Rico that the wave is interacting with that is enhancing the convection:





Wow, exactly, we need desperately that scenario...
Quoting 72. HuracanTaino:

Let's cross our finger, hopefully, the ULL will pull the rain over Puerto Rico, not northeast of the Leewards,...


Really not much rain so far : 0.1" :(

The rain moved over antigua, barduda, st kitts, nevis, saba, and statia... staying just south.
Quoting 77. HuracanTaino:

Wow, exactly, we need desperately that scenario...


I hope you guys can squeeze out plenty of needed rain from this one......................................
This thing might be around for a while.



I live in Stoughton, which can be seen in the right side of the frame. We are getting things in the garage as I type this and the thunder is starting to roll.
Barbados centered area RAMSDIS infared shot from earlier:

Quoting 67. Climate175:

Which wave is that product referring to?
Probably the one moving WNW, approaching the Leewards, in a few day will be in that general area , 33N 76W,...


Boring
Quoting 76. carolinabelle:



How about here, just outside of Charleston, SC?? Don't think I can take many more 100 degree days this summer LOL!

\

Not too much relief for us. Wetter though so that should be relief in itself.
You posted a 24-48 hour map..the UKMET is stating after 144 hours..
Absolutely sodden yesterday in College Park MD after 1.5" of rain Saturday and Saturday night, most with the feeder band associated with the dregs of Bill. The dregs themselves only gave us a half inch.

Gardeners on flat ground are losing plants from drainage issues. I always grow on raised beds to protect against long warm periods of heavy rain which can devastate plant roots from drowning.
Quoting 86. ncstorm:

You posted a 24-48 hour map..the UKMET is stating after 144 hours..


I was just noting that the NOAA TCFP chart only goes out 48 hours as you mentioned...............Have to see if the wave holds together in 144 hours and other models (other than UKMET) come on board with potential development in about 5 days.
Quoting 63. weathermanwannabe:

Here are the current shear levels across the Atlantic per CIMMS; that wave would have to hold together all the way to Florida or the Bahamas for it to stand a chance at potential development in the long term........A long shot at best.



Just saw tropical update on TWC. Michael Lowry says for the next two weeks in the tropics, watch out for advancing cold fronts from the north heading towards the GOM and Atlantic, because we can get some lows develop along the tail ends. We also need to watch that tropical wave near Peurto Rico.
Quoting 88. weathermanwannabe:



I was just noting that the NOAA TCFP chart only goes out 48 hours as you mentioned...............Have to see if the wave holds together in 144 hours and other models (other than UKMET) come on board with potential development in about 5 days.

Where can I get those maps.

Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:

\

Not too much relief for us. Wetter though so that should be relief in itself.
Typical... but I'll take what I can get! ;)
Quoting 89. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Just saw tropical update on TWC. Michael Lowry says for the next two weeks in the tropics, watch out for advancing cold fronts from the north heading towards the GOM and Atlantic, because we can get some lows develop along the tail ends. We also need to watch that tropical wave near Peurto Rico.


Thanks; I don't have access to TWC during the day. Many of the Atlantic storms in the June-July time frame form from the tail end of frontal passages across Conus, that leave viable remnants in the Gulf or off the Eastern Seaboard or MJO driven systems coming up from the SW Caribbean into the BOC or lower Gulf. Not too many Atlantic waves develop in this time frame but something to keep an eye on (with this wave if it actually holds together and gets into the Southern Bahamas on the way towards Florida/SE US..............It's definitely a wait and see.
Quoting 90. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Where can I get those maps.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/
Quoting 93. weathermanwannabe:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/


Thanks a lot. Well, since this tropical wave is interacting with an ULL, won't the general environment be unfavorable to development, even if the tropical wave nears the Bahamas,where the environment is generally conducive to tropical development, or will the ULL probably dissipate by then.
Quoting 94. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Thanks a lot. Well, since this tropical wave is interacting with an ULL, won't the general environment be unfavorable to development, even if the tropical wave nears the Bahamas,where the environment is generally conducive to tropical development, or will the ULL probably dissipate by then.


I can speculate as to your scenarios or point you to a good research paper on the issue of tutts and tropical cyclones so you can learn and come to your own conclusions. Here is your summer reading assignment:

http://www.public.iastate.edu/~tmchen/Download/MR W_6227_rendered.pdf
96. bwi
Anybody think that massive bowing thunderstorm line approaching Chicago could hold together all day (and into tonight)?

Looks like 12z NAM pulls it apart with storms dissipating and re-firing along the path.

But we had one of those d-word storms hold together all the way to the east coast a couple years ago and it was a whopper!
Quoting 55. ACSeattle:


-8 sigma? Seriously? According to Wolfram Alpha, the probality of such an event is less than one in one trillion. The Earth itself is about a trillion days old.


That probability would be assuming a normal distribution and an unchanging distribution.
From today's Guardian:

New study links global warming to Hurricane Sandy and other extreme weather events

I think the use of the term 'study' in the Guardian's headline is a bit misleading. Essentially, the authors are suggesting that extreme weather events be evaluated differently than they have been.

The paper itself was published today in Nature Climate Change (and in my opinion it's very readable):

Attribution of climate extreme events

Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo & Theodore G. Shepherd

Nature Climate Change (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2657
Received 10 October 2014 Accepted 14 April 2015 Published online 22 June 2015

Abstract

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Note: when I followed the link in the Guardian article, I was automatically sent to the full PDF in 'ReadCube'. When I later followed the link provided directly here in this post, I was sent to the abstract in Nature Climate Change, but full access to the article required payment. I think I got full access the first way as they detected I was not a 'regular user'. It appears Nature.com launched a content sharing initiative this past December. Maybe that's why I lucked out this time?
Quoting 83. CaribBoy:



Boring


You are boring
Quoting 96. bwi:

Anybody think that massive bowing thunderstorm line approaching Chicago could hold together all day (and into tonight)?

Looks like 12z NAM pulls it apart with storms dissipating and re-firing along the path.

But we had one of those d-word storms hold together all the way to the east coast a couple years ago and it was a whopper!


It is already starting to dissipate from North to South, though I would not rule out some brief gusts in Chicago.
102. JRRP
Quoting 16. sunlinepr:

Lets hope that the combination of this ULL and a wave will bring us a significant amount of rain needed to end the drought....


If you're counting on that Tropical Wave just to the east of PR to help end the Severe Drought in SE Florida dont! Most Tropical Waves fall apart or dissipate before they reach South Florida. The waves that do make it this far west usually move south of the peninsula or arrive with very little in the way of any appreciable convection. The Greater Miami/Ft.Lauderdale area has received very little if any rain since the rainy season began in early May. The grass is turning brown and the frogs and lizards are dying for a drink of water. A strong Tropical Wave or Depression would really help us out.
Quoting 98. DCSwithunderscores:



That probability would be assuming a normal distribution and an unchanging distribution.

Yes
Recent big picture GOES East image for Conus and the Caribbean and the big shot from Africa to the East Pacific:





Quoting 103. HurriHistory:

If you're counting on that Tropical Wave just to the east of PR to help end the Severe Drought in SE Florida dont! Most Tropical Waves fall apart or dissipate before they reach South Florida. The waves that do make it this far west usually move south of the peninsula or arrive with very little in the way of any appreciable convection. The Greater Miami/Ft.Lauderdale area has received very little if any rain since the rainy season began in early May. The grass is turning brown and the frogs and lizards are dying for a drink of water. A strong Tropical Wave or Depression would really help us out.


SunlinePR lives in - surprise! - Puerto Rico, which is in terrible drought.
I've been watching this wave, it ran through 1000miles of SAH, ducked/
dodged at the right times to get where it is now which indicates persistence.
Quoting 96. bwi:

Anybody think that massive bowing thunderstorm line approaching Chicago could hold together all day (and into tonight)?

Looks like 12z NAM pulls it apart with storms dissipating and re-firing along the path.

But we had one of those d-word storms hold together all the way to the east coast a couple years ago and it was a whopper!



The MCS is dying, it's being fed from the low level jet back across Iowa and is running away from it's source of energy. The outflow boundary from this MCS will play havoc on where the line of storms forms along the cold front this afternoon that is stretched across Iowa and N IL. These MCS usually act as a refocusing for any line of convection that would have otherwise fired along the front. So you get your line of storms forming along the old boundary left behind that is often displaced up to as far as a 100 miles out ahead of the front. It will greatly depend upon how much mixing takes place this afternoon and subsequent sunshine to help recharge the atmosphere.

As per discussion from LINCOLN NWS on the MCS affecting the Chicago region...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WITH A MCS OVER SRN WI AND NORTHERN IL. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW...INSTEAD FIRING PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE POPS REMAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN TIER.
WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER PUSHED
TO THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER
90S AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
108. vis0
Just some food for thought (you started it with POP tarts & Little Debbies, heck i just bought 7 ""little"" Debbie banananananana creme pies, ...all for me ??? are you nuts... 4 for me 2 neighbors are now hooked...the 7th... OH look-a-here i forgot 'bout tha **MUNCH** one .

Interesting little set up over the North Pacific::
image host


...hows that upper level big swirl filling up near Hispañiola?
and do not forget CONUS severe???
STAY TUNED TO NOAA RADIO
Quoting 103. HurriHistory:

If you're counting on that Tropical Wave just to the east of PR to help end the Severe Drought in SE Florida dont! Most Tropical Waves fall apart or dissipate before they reach South Florida. The waves that do make it this far west usually move south of the peninsula or arrive with very little in the way of any appreciable convection. The Greater Miami/Ft.Lauderdale area has received very little if any rain since the rainy season began in early May. The grass is turning brown and the frogs and lizards are dying for a drink of water. A strong Tropical Wave or Depression would really help us out.

Just guessing, but by looking at their name, I would assume they were talking about the drought in PR...not South Florida. But, like I said...just guessing.
tw?never.know
Here is the just updated SPC discussion (severe t-storm watch) on the complex around the Great Lakes heading East:
MD 1118 graphic

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL TO NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER
MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331...332...

VALID 221600Z - 221800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
331...332...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL INTO MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MCS-RELATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PROVIDED
MCS SUSTENANCE.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES
TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IL AS OF 1045AM CDT/1545Z. A STRONG
DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AND LINE-TRAILING COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH
REMAINS READILY EVIDENT IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP/SURFACE DATA ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. AHEAD OF THE
QUASI-LINEAR MCS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S F
ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL HAVE TENDED TO VEER OVER TIME WITH SOME PROBABLE
RELATED WEAKENING OF LINE-RELATIVE INFLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS /ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD AT
AROUND -75C/ WITH A MODEST WEAKENING OF SOME OF LINE-EMBEDDED
UPDRAFTS AS OF 1530Z. EVEN SO...THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE LINE-EMBEDDED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND ON THE SOUTHWEST-PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IL.

MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD/BECOME
INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING
WITH DESTABILIZATION STEADILY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. CONTINUED CELL
MERGERS AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A
PERSISTENCE/REINVIGORATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE MI...SUCH THAT
A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR
NORTHWEST OH PENDING CONTINUED MCS SUSTENANCE.

Quoting 106. redwagon:



SunlinePR lives in - surprise! - Puerto Rico, which is in terrible drought.
I've been watching this wave, it ran through 1000miles of SAH, ducked/
dodged at the right times to get where it is now which indicates persistence.
Most Tropical Waves have no problem reaching the island of PR. I trust this wave will help relieve the drought there. But in reference to SE Florida, don't hold your breath. There is very little on the horizon in the way of rain fall for us here in the Sun and Fun Capital of the World. ( as Jackie Gleason use to say)
Quoting 103. HurriHistory:

If you're counting on that Tropical Wave just to the east of PR to help end the Severe Drought in SE Florida dont! Most Tropical Waves fall apart or dissipate before they reach South Florida. The waves that do make it this far west usually move south of the peninsula or arrive with very little in the way of any appreciable convection. The Greater Miami/Ft.Lauderdale area has received very little if any rain since the rainy season began in early May. The grass is turning brown and the frogs and lizards are dying for a drink of water. A strong Tropical Wave or Depression would really help us out.


Has the drought in that area been classified as severe? Where did you see that?
Quoting 71. StormTrackerScott:

Major WWB on the way and likely atleast a 2C El-Nino coming.

WOW!



Umm ok let's see






Btw this one below is exactly the same model you posted but updated and it does not show this as strong as you posted








Overall certainly does not look anything like what your on about
Quoting 48. StormTrackerScott:

May ONI up to .88 up from .74 in April. So basically the May ONI came in @ 0.9.

2015 5 28.84 27.96 0.88

This has been said already, but the ONI is a three month averaged value, not a value for a single month. Taking the average of the April value, the May value, and the June value will give us the most recent ONI. The March-April-May ONI was 0.7C.
12z UKMET..

WTNT80 EGRR 221617



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.06.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 36.3N 71.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.06.2015 36.9N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.06.2015 38.1N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.1N 74.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.06.2015 36.4N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
Quoting 114. wunderkidcayman:



Umm ok let's see






Btw this one below is exactly the same model you posted but updated and it does not show this as strong as you posted








Overall certainly does not look anything like what your on about




Very El nino-ish.
118. MahFL
Quoting 52. ACSeattle:


Bill tracked along the western and northern sides of a mass of very hot and humid air. Could Bill's longevity be due, at least in part, to its tapping into this high octane fuel?


The air was not that humid, here in NE Fl we were dry as a bone as Bill came ashore in TX.

Kujira is blowing up ... (Source)

Typhoon to hit China's Hainan, seen easing drought
Source: Reuters - Mon, 22 Jun 2015 11:01 GMT
BEIJING, June 22 (Reuters) - More than 40,000 people have been evacuated from China's southern island of Hainan ahead of the expected landfall of the year's first typhoon late on Monday, although it should help ease a severe drought, state media said.
Typhoon Kujira will sweep over the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea before hitting land somewhere between Wanning on Hainan and Zhanjiang in neighbouring Guangdong province, bringing strong wind and heavy rain, Xinhua news agency said. ...
120. vis0
BTW for those that didn't read it, KoritheMan is really polishing off his education therefore he stated he might not pop in as often GOOD CHOICE as to education look at me so many ideas & theories (had 11th grade math level by 5th grade) but in not pursing a full college (2yrs BS and that was after i felt a grandfathered rule took my BS away by 1 pt and fraught for that 1 pt for 2 yrs) So get everything in order NOW and things will be easier (not saying easy) but easier and thats a big plus.  He has a website i think its name might be this (but not sure) "mightyoracle" at wordpress.

 (NOT FROM THIS BLOGBYTE)
1117. KoritheMan 5:24 AM GMT on June 16, 2015
Oh yeah, before I disappear again (I'll stick around a little longer tonight I suppose :P) for awhile, here's a link to where I blog now. For anyone that likes my posts:

@ 118. MahFL : The air was not that humid, here in NE Fl we were dry as a bone as Bill came ashore in TX.

MahFL, any time I respond to one of your posts, I usually get no reply. Expecting the same (lack of) response here. Anyway-
As a long-time WU member who has nearly 15 different air, temperature, water, wind, and atmospheric devices attached to various parts of the domicile, I must take you down on your comment.

We were in NO WAY "dry as a bone" here in NE Fla.

Summary
June 16, 2015
High Low Average
Temperature 95.5 F 71.8 F 83.1 F
Dew Point 80.3 F 70.8 F 74.5 F
Humidity 99% 47% 78%
Quoting 108. vis0:

Just some food for thought (you started it with POP tarts & Little Debbies, heck i just bought 7 ""little"" Debbie banananananana creme pies, ...all for me ??? are you nuts... 4 for me 2 neighbors are now hooked...the 7th... OH look-a-here i forgot 'bout tha **MUNCH** one .

Interesting little set up over the North Pacific::
image host


...hows that upper level big swirl filling up near Hispañiola?
and do not forget CONUS severe???
STAY TUNED TO NOAA RADIO


I... can't.... Stella Artois?

Best post ever.
What's left of Bill

New Record Hottest Temperature in Deadhorse

Part of Deadhorse AK was isolated last month after record flooding washed away parts of Dalton Highway. Then Deadhorse had its record all-time hottest temperature yesterday of 82 F / 28 C. Deadhorse is near the Arctic Ocean.

record temperature link

Link

record flooding link

Link
Got some much needed showers this morning. My trees are rejoicing they were looking so droopy over the past few days
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
DEPRESSION ARB02-2015
17:30 PM IST June 22 2015
=======================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over northeast adjoining east central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during past 9 hours and lays centered 20.0N 67.°E, about 320 km southwest of Porbandar.

The system would remain practically stationary and may intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours.

According to latest satellite imagery, Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 16.0N to 22.5N and 58.0E to 68.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The estimated central pressure of the depression is 992 hPa.

The lower level relative vorticity remained same and low level convergence as well as upper level divergence in association with the system slightly decreased during past 9 hours. However, the vertical wind shear is moderate around the system center and high towards south. The Madden-Julian Oscillation index is transiting from phase 4 to phase 5 with amplitude greater than one. The sea surface temperature is about 30C near the system center. The ocean thermal energy is 50-60 kj/cm2 around the system center and it significantly decreases towards the west. Under these conditions, the system may intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 24.0N and an anticyclonic circulation lies to the northwest of the system center. Under the influence of this ridge, the upper tropospheric winds are easterlies over the region. However, a trough in mid-latitude westerlies lies close to west of the system. Under the joint influence of above ridge and trough, system remained practically stationary. Similar condition may continue for next 12-24 hours.
Despite the low rain chances, it is certainly more muggy here now than almost all of last week. Though this makes it even more uncomfortable, I have to view it as a sign things may be trying to return to a more normal summer pattern (?). Currently 93F with 58% humidity and a 76F dewpoint. Heat index 106F.
130. JLPR2


Looks promising, c'mon TW/ULL, do your thing! :)
131. etxwx
Not a good time to be on Lake Michigan...
The tropics are expected to be quiet this week- NHC Twitter
This would be nice..



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND WILL
AFFECT THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS.

&&
This storm going over the Eastern Caribbean doesn't have a huge amount of wind but on Dominica we are definitely noticing it, it keeps looking like we're on the southern side of the storm but the southern side of the storm keeps growing as the system keeps moving so the rain and winds have been pretty consistent for several hours now. We've only lost power once though, so thank God for the extreme shear.

We need the rain I suppose but boom thunderstorms all day, what fun.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

This would be nice..






Is that... 60's?!
The "best" moisture with the wave is missing PR to the South so far:
Quoting 133. hydrus:

This would be nice..






Those are LOW temps, right?
Quoting 138. redwagon:



Those are LOW temps, right?


Yep. 06Z is 0200 Eastern Standard Time
140. MahFL
Quoting 121. aquak9:

@ 118. MahFL : The air was not that humid, here in NE Fl we were dry as a bone as Bill came ashore in TX.

MahFL, any time I respond to one of your posts, I usually get no reply. Expecting the same (lack of) response here. Anyway-
As a long-time WU member who has nearly 15 different air, temperature, water, wind, and atmospheric devices attached to various parts of the domicile, I must take you down on your comment.

We were in NO WAY "dry as a bone" here in NE Fla.

Summary
June 16, 2015
High Low Average
Temperature 95.5 �F 71.8 �F 83.1 �F
Dew Point 80.3 �F 70.8 �F 74.5 �F
Humidity 99% 47% 78%


We have been dry, as we are in severe drought where I am.

Quoting 129. HurrMichaelOrl:

Despite the low rain chances, it is certainly more muggy here now than almost all of last week. Though this makes it even more uncomfortable, I have to view it as a sign things may be trying to return to a more normal summer pattern (?). Currently 93F with 58% humidity and a 76F dewpoint. Heat index 106F.


You haven't been getting hammered as we have in Longwood? Especially Friday was awful.
You can see the ULL over PR retrograding to the West along with the wave in this WV loop and sheer just blowing any developing t-storm tops to bits with the exception of where the strongest convection has now relocated to the SE of PR just off to the West of Dominica and Guadalupe as noted by a blogger from the Islands below:


...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS REST OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...

SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE LAST HALF OF MAY INTO EARLY JUNE, MOST OF THE RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGED BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TO 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AT SEVERAL
SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS DRY SEASON STARTING FROM
NOVEMBER 1, 2014 TO JUNE 10, 2015.

AIRPORTS RAINFALL : DEPARTURE
NOV 1-JUN 10 NOV 1-JUN 10

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 19.70 : -9.84
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 11.65 : -5.83
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 19.80 : -6.69
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 16.79 : -6.84

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE (COLLIER) : 18.54 : -1.42
ORTONA LOCK (HENDRY) : 25.58 : +5.22
LA BELLE (HENDRY) : 18.73 : -1.53
MOORE HAVEN LOCK (GLADES) : 14.49 : -4.06
OASIS (MIAMI-DADE) : 20.99 : -0.12
OPA LOCKA (MIAMI-DADE) : 20.57 : -4.64
HOMESTEAD (MIAMI-DADE) : 18.86 : -3.32
MIAMI BEACH (MIAMI-DADE) : 13.86 : -9.41
TAMIAMI AIRPORT (MIAMI-DADE) : 12.81 : -10.23
PERRINE (MIAMI-DADE) : 13.26 : -10.40
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT (BROWARD) : 20.40 : -6.03

PERCENT OF NORMAL
NOV 1,2014 - JUN 10,2015
TAMIAMI AIRPORT 56%
PERRINE 56%
MIAMI BEACH 60%
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 67%
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL 67%
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL 71%
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL 75%
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT 77%
MOORE HAVEN LOCK 78%
OPA LOCKA 82%
HOMESTEAD 85%
LA BELLE 92%
IMMOKALEE 93%
OASIS 99%
ORTONA LOCK 126%

WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL FALLING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND WORSEN
OVER EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
(D2) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D1) OVER THE REST OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0) HAVE EXPANDED INTO MOST
OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS...

MOST OF THE WELLS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE NOW
RUNNING AT THE LOWEST 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WELLS OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS, EXCEPT FOR THE WELLS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF COLLIER
COUNTY WHERE THEY ARE RUNNING IN THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT RANGE.

THE UNDERGROUND WATER RESERVOIRS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WERE AROUND
15.2 FEET WHICH WAS 0.6 FEET BELOW NORMAL. IN BROWARD COUNTY...THE
RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND 10.6 FEET WHICH WAS 0.4 FEET BELOW NORMAL.
IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY...THE UNDERGROUND WATER RESERVOIRS WERE
AROUND 8.9 FEET...WHICH IS 0.5 FEET BELOW NORMAL.

THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WAS AROUND 12.5 FEET AS OF JUNE 11TH...WHICH
WAS ABOUT 0.7 FEET BELOW THE NORMAL LEVEL OF 13.2 FEET. THE LEVEL
OF FISHEATING CREEK WAS 1.9 FEET AS OF JUNE 11TH...WHICH WAS
AROUND 0.1 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL LEVEL OF 1.8 FEET FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

AS OF JUNE 11...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) WAS 400 TO
500 OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE WESTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA BELOW 200. THIS PUTS THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF WILDFIRES WITH THE WESTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A LOW RISK OF WILDFIRES.

RESPONSE/ACTIONS...

THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS KEPT ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A YEARLY WATER RESTRICTION...WHICH REDUCES WATER USAGE TO
3 DAYS A WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WATER SHORTAGE CONDITIONS
...PLEASE VISIT THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT WEB SITE AT
WWW.SFWMD.GOV.

OUTLOOK...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8
TO 14 DAYS CALLS FOR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR JUNE
THROUGH AUGUST PREDICTS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND THE END OF JUNE...UNLESS
CONDITIONS CHANGE BEFORE THAT TIME. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

$$

BAXTER


Here in Fort Myers we've official gotten 7.22" so far this month (6.89" would be normal to date). We average 10.09" for the month.
But here at the house just S.E. of town, I've only picked up 2.84" this month. So the rain has been rather hit or miss.

But so far it's been a pretty good start to the rainy season for the downtown area here.
Next best chance heavy rain for coastal SEFL, oh its 384 hrs out. Don't hold your breath.

Quoting 139. tlawson48:



Yep. 06Z is 0200 Eastern Standard Time

EDT, not EST
Quoting 133. hydrus:

This would be nice..




washi been wanting some cooler air high 50's would be cooler
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:



You haven't been getting hammered as we have in Longwood? Especially Friday was awful.


You need to slow down on the drinks then, STS.

Anyways, sizzling in Alaska. Deadhorse hit 82F!!! It's NEVER been that hot there EVER at any time of the year.

deadhorse-sets-new-record-high
Quoting 148. Dakster:



You need to slow down on the drinks then, STS.

Anyways, sizzling in Alaska. Deadhorse hit 82F!!! It's NEVER been that hot there EVER at any time of the year.

deadhorse-sets-new-record-high


think I am moving to Alaska open an air conditioner shop and repair store could be a good seasonal business there

Quoting 146. LAbonbon:


EDT, not EST


My bad. EST doesn't kick in until we set the clocks back at the beginning of November.
Quoting 140. MahFL:



We have been dry, as we are in severe drought where I am.




Your original post was in regards to humidity, not rainfall. Apples and oranges.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:



You haven't been getting hammered as we have in Longwood? Especially Friday was awful.


That's Florida in the summertime. There is a reason why we are the so called lighting capital of the world.
Quoting 138. redwagon:



Those are LOW temps, right?
Yes.
Quoting 138. redwagon:



Those are LOW temps, right?


Low temps are near sunrise more often than not unless there's WAA or other factors involved.
Quoting 151. StAugustineFL:



Your original post was in regards to humidity, not rainfall. Apples and oranges.


12Z Euro stalls a cold front across N FL. With such a significant SOI drop underway infact not seen during any summer since 1997. So this is a believable scenario. So what I am getting at is this week many more areas of FL should really begin to stack up on the rainfall totals. I'm at 6.68" for June so far.
Quoting 115. TropicalAnalystwx13:


This has been said already, but the ONI is a three month averaged value, not a value for a single month. Taking the average of the April value, the May value, and the June value will give us the most recent ONI. The March-April-May ONI was 0.7C.


+1000...
Speaking of which, I should have the ONI data calculated & running in real-time for ERSSTv4, Kaplan Extended v2, HADISST, ERSSTv3b, IOCADSv2.5, & HADSST3 datasets once the Oceanic Nino Index is updated again for AMJ in early July. Being able to see the latest ONI values from 6 different datasets as opposed to from only ERSSTv4 & v3b (as is currently given by the CPC) should provide a significantly better gauge of this event's intensity. Since OISSTv2 (which provides the weekly ENSO data to the CPC & is used to create the EOTs in ERSST) began in January 1982, I also plan on integrating OISSTv2 early next year when the 1986-2015 30 year base period finally becomes available.
Quoting 155. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro stalls a cold front across N FL. With such a significant SOI drop underway infact not seen during any summer since 1997. So this is a believable scenario. So what I am getting at is this week many more areas of FL should really begin to stack up on the rainfall totals. I'm at 6.68" for June so far.


2.23" here this month. Avg is 5.79". YTD I'm 68% of normal. A pattern change would be welcomed up here.
This is certainly unusual for the last week of June:

The Sun is kinda teeing off on us today, lol. Moderate-strong solar radiation storm:



We just got hit with a strong CME impact from a flare the other day. "Severe" G4 category geomagnetic storm in progress.



And we just had a fresh strong M class flare, from the same Earth-facing sunspot. We'll see if this produces an additional CME. It caused a strong radio blackout over North America.



SWPC website
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

This is certainly unusual for the last week of June:




Not if you follow the last 2 summers as examples.
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

This is certainly unusual for the last week of June:




Yep, there has never been probabilities of below normal temps in late June in the eastern two thirds of the CONUS
much.needed.rain.p.rico
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST MON JUN 22 2015

PRC011-023-067-083-097-131-222130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0058.150622T1824Z-150622T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ANASCO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CABO ROJO PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
224 PM AST MON JUN 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SAN SEBASTIAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
ANASCO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
LAS MARIAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CABO ROJO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 223 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN
AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6696 1815 6716 1818 6717 1820 6715
1822 6716 1823 6717 1824 6717 1826 6718
1830 6719 1830 6706

$$
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

This is certainly unusual for the last week of June:



Oh look, it's my least favorite pattern ever (although in summer I do hate it slightly less).
Quoting 115. TropicalAnalystwx13:


This has been said already, but the ONI is a three month averaged value, not a value for a single month. Taking the average of the April value, the May value, and the June value will give us the most recent ONI. The March-April-May ONI was 0.7C.
Nope :).Science does not apply here.We're headed for a super el nino rather ya'll admit it or not! (sarcasm)
Texas..it just may not be your year..

What I think the UKMET runs might be jumping on is a potential development off the SE coast and not the tropical wave...looks to be a wave of Low pressures that will exit off the SE coasts seen in some model runs..will be interesting to see if anything comes of it..

The latest NCEP ensembles has one lonely ensemble showing it in its latest run per a previous post..
Quoting 167. ncstorm:

Texas..it just may not be your year..


Not good for TX or the Carolinas..I did some digging just for kicks, Its u guys and TX, next likely target, northern gulf coast, and of course , FL.
Quoting 161. StAugustineFL:



Yep, there has never been probabilities of below normal temps in late June in the eastern two thirds of the CONUS


Some ying yang on here from Seattle said there was no chance on this happening well where is he now. LOL! I suspect many on here need to pay attention to these rise and falls on the SOI because it really dictates our weather across the US. By giving us indications on where troughs and ridges will be located. We could have some -50 drops on the daily SOI over the coming days.
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

This is certainly unusual for the last week of June:


There likely will not be many complaints.
We had one heck of a thunderstorm here when I was at work(which is right down the street from where I live). A powerful cluster of thunderstorms developed just offshore and moved onshore producing 2-3 inches in a good portion of Pinellas, strong gusty winds and thousands of lightning strikes.


There were at least 2 building fires from lightning not far from here, one in an apartment complex in Largo, and another house fire a couple miles away also started by lightning.

The lightning show here was epic, definitely odd to see so much lightning for an early AM thunderstorm, and we had torrential rain and 40 mph gusts or so. We ended up picking up soaking 2.12 here at the house gauge in 30-40 min. which puts our June total up to 10.92.

I wish southeast Florida and the Panhandle could get as much rain as we've been getting in the Tampa Bay area and SW Florida this June. Last June was near the record driest here, so I'm glad that's changed this year.
Quoting 163. LargoFl:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST MON JUN 22 2015

PRC011-023-067-083-097-131-222130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0058.150622T1824Z-150622T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ANASCO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CABO ROJO PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
224 PM AST MON JUN 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SAN SEBASTIAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
ANASCO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
LAS MARIAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CABO ROJO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
HORMIGUEROS ThaMUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 223 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN
AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6696 1815 6716 1818 6717 1820 6715
1822 6716 1823 6717 1824 6717 1826 6718
1830 6719 1830 6706

$$
Thanks God, meanwhile the "Taino indians, here will continue with our rain dance rituals...
Quoting 161. StAugustineFL:



Yep, there has never been probabilities of below normal temps in late June in the eastern two thirds of the CONUS


Every summer day forever.. is above average.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IF THE MODELS VERIFY IN THEIR
THINKING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTH. THE QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES WHICH
WILL DICTATE HOW FAR SOUTH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT. BOTH OF THESE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR NOW SHOW THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY
AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WOULD MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT APPEAR THAT WIDEPREAD ACTIVITY BE ANTICAPED AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE. BUT MAYBE THE EAST
COAST CAN BEGIN EXPERIENCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
Quoting 173. Jedkins01:

We had one heck of a thunderstorm here when I was at work(which is right down the street from where I live). A powerful cluster of thunderstorms developed just offshore and moved onshore producing 2-3 inches in a good portion of Pinellas, strong gusty winds and thousands of lightning strikes.


There were at least 2 building fires from lightning not far from here, one in an apartment complex in Largo, and another house fire a couple miles away also started by lightning.

The lightning show here was epic, definitely odd to see so much lightning for an early AM thunderstorm, and we had torrential rain and 40 mph gusts or so. We ended up picking up soaking 2.12 here at the house gauge in 30-40 min. which puts our June total up to 10.92.

I wish southeast Florida and the Panhandle could get as much rain as we've been getting in the Tampa Bay area and SW Florida this June. Last June was near the record driest here, so I'm glad that's changed this year.



Wow, you're at 10.92" for June already? I'm between 4.5" and 5", don't remember the exact number. This is roughly in line with the Tampa reporting station. I didn't realize Pinellas had received so much rain this month.
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

This is certainly unusual for the last week of June:




Not really unusual. This is the typical western ridge, central to eastern trough signature and that's a common weather pattern at all times of the year including summer. I remember many cool spells in June, Late June 1974 comes to mind as one of them. First one was as a kid in 1965 and I think the third or fourth (not both) week in June was basically in the 60s or low 70s all week in DC metro. June 1979 was cool with persistant eastern troughing the last two weeks (remembered since east coast troughing at Penn State in June is unpleasantly cold)
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IF THE MODELS VERIFY IN THEIR
THINKING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTH. THE QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES WHICH
WILL DICTATE HOW FAR SOUTH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT. BOTH OF THESE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR NOW SHOW THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY
AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WOULD MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT APPEAR THAT WIDEPREAD ACTIVITY BE ANTICAPED AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE. BUT MAYBE THE EAST
COAST CAN BEGIN EXPERIENCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.


For the love of God, please let it be. So hot, So dry down here.
Pouch tracking will begin in July.
June 22, 2015 @ 18:03 UTC
Strong Solar Flare Detected
A solar flare reaching above M6 level was detected on Monday afternoon beginning around 17:40 UTC.

The source, sunspot 2371 is in a good geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions.


More details later this evening.




solarham.net
Quoting 183. Patrap:

June 22, 2015 @ 18:03 UTC
Strong Solar Flare Detected
A solar flare reaching above M6 level was detected on Monday afternoon beginning around 17:40 UTC.

The source, sunspot 2371 is in a good geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions.


More details later this evening.



M6.. Okey Dokey. If a Z1 erupts, let me know. Time to go into a bunker.

And just so you know, Z was created because:

The extreme event in 1859 is theorised to have been well over X40 so a Z class designation is possible.
Keep - With the solar flares it would be nice if it actually got dark out up here. Might have been able to catch an aurora.
186. MahFL
Quoting 151. StAugustineFL:



Your original post was in regards to humidity, not rainfall. Apples and oranges.


If it was humid we would have had rain, but we had a massive ridge over us which kept us dry, both humidity and rainfall.
187. beell
Quoting 186. MahFL:



If it was humid we would have had rain, but we had a massive ridge over us which kept us dry, both humidity and rainfall.


Moisture/humidity at the surface or near surface boundary layer (which was in place) does not guarantee subsidence in the mid-levels (under the ridge) will be overcome without a trigger...a sea breeze front or a focus of some sort.
Quoting 177. tampabaymatt:



Wow, you're at 10.92" for June already? I'm between 4.5" and 5", don't remember the exact number. This is roughly in line with the Tampa reporting station. I didn't realize Pinellas had received so much rain this month.


Yeah Central Pinellas has had a lot of rain so far, and I guess it's only fair because June last year was extremely wet for Central and South Florida with most places getting 10-15 inches, yet last June we had only 3.9, and July we had only 4.83 and and 5.52 in August, despite that all 3 months were very wet in much of Central and South Florida. We did catch up though in September, the total was a soaking 15.89 here which helped make up some for the well below average rains in June through August.


Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:



Some ying yang on here from Seattle said there was no chance on this happening well where is he now. LOL! I suspect many on here need to pay attention to these rise and falls on the SOI because it really dictates our weather across the US. By giving us indications on where troughs and ridges will be located. We could have some -50 drops on the daily SOI over the coming days.


Aside from being representative of the background tropical forcing w/ MJO amplification in the eastern hemisphere likely being driven in part by & responding to the onset of the southeastern Asia monsoon (& this is also consistent with an interesting 3 month periodicity in high amplitude MJO events over Indian ocean of late), the station-based Southern Oscillation index is the noisiest & one of the poorest measures of ENSO (unless you actually filter the index for ENSO (>90 days) by taking either/or a tri-monthly or pentad average) as confirmed by Wolter & Timlin (2011) "El Nino/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext" Link. It's also not surprising that they conclude the BEST & MEI.ext multivariate indices which incorporated more than one variable or dataset, had the strongest correlations to all other indices and since they monitored multiple "symptoms" of ENSO, they likely captured variability in ENSO that other "inferior" indices missed. Unfortunately, most of the literature I've come across suffers from some of the same issues as w/ the SOI, NINO 3.4 SSTs (from one dataset), & CTI, by using <2 variables/datasets to rebuild the ENSO record. I think it's about time that an ensemble-based approach was fervidly applied to reconstruct & confidently extract (w/ an exceptionally high resolution), the most important variable in seasonal forecasting from the 150-yr observed record. ENSO...
190. MahFL
Quoting 187. beell:



Moisture/humidity at the surface or near surface boundary layer (which was in place) does not guarantee subsidence in the mid-levels (under the ridge) will be overcome without a trigger...a sea breeze front or a focus of some sort.


The orginal question though was did the hot high help Bill, no, the help Bill got was from all the rainfall that fell before Bill arrived, both in TX and the Mississippi Valley area.
Quoting 187. beell:



Moisture/humidity at the surface or near surface boundary layer (which was in place) does not guarantee subsidence in the mid-levels (under the ridge) will be overcome without a trigger...a sea breeze front or a focus of some sort.


In this case though, subsidence from the ridge has been so strong strong that a lot of convective energy and deep surface moisture hasn't been enough for the sea breezes. Still, for such an unusually strong dominating mid level ridge over the area, rainfall has still been plentiful in some portions of Florida like my area, even though a lot of places have been below average, but not as drastically below average as one would expect from this pattern, the excpetion being extreme SE and far NE Florida.
Quoting 185. Dakster:

Keep - With the solar flares it would be nice if it actually got dark out up here. Might have been able to catch an aurora.
ya not much viewing likely this time of year with 24 hr daylight
Love the commentary Weber
A true Met.
194. beell
Quoting 190. MahFL:



The orginal question though was did the hot high help Bill, no, the help Bill got was from all the rainfall that fell before Bill arrived, both in TX and the Missisppipi Valley area.


Just making a minor point that high humidity-which was in place over FL does not guarantee rain. I heard quite a few moans a groans about the heat index.

If it was humid we would have had rain, but we had a massive ridge over us which kept us dry, both humidity and rainfall.

We have a shot at reaching or surpassing 100 tomorrow with strong to server storms.Oh how lovely...
Quoting 191. Jedkins01:



In this case though, subsidence from the ridge has been so strong strong that a lot of convective energy and deep surface moisture hasn't been enough for the sea breezes. Still, for such an unusually strong dominating mid level ridge over the area, rainfall has still been plentiful in some portions of Florida like my area, even though a lot of places have been below average, but not as drastically below average as one would expect from this pattern, the excpetion being extreme SE and far NE Florida.
you are correct about the some area... in riverview , east of tampa on the east part of the bay, not much rain at all. my friends all around get rain often, here not so much. we get lots of bad lightning. i just hope the regular rainy season somehow returns. we didnt get it last year and so far this year doesnt seem to be much in the way of the regular afternoon storms i remember as in years past.
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

We have a shot at reaching or surpassing 100 tomorrow with strong to server storms.Oh how lovely...


Not cool Washi. (pun intended)
Quoting 196. intampa:

you are correct about the some area... in riverview , east of tampa on the east part of the bay, not much rain at all. my friends all around get rain often, here not so much. we get lots of bad lightning. i just hope the regular rainy season somehow returns. we didnt get it last year and so far this year doesnt seem to be much in the way of the regular afternoon storms i remember as in years past.


Keep in mind we have the tendency to have short term memory and sometimes improperly compare past events to a current issue. Most of Central and South Florida was at or above normal for rainfall in the rainy season last year. And most locations in the Tampa Bay area had wetter than normal rainy seasons and higher than average severe reports during summers of 2011-2014. You can access this through the state climatology site:


http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/


For example, I've seen where some of my neighbors have thought that we had a not as active summer as like the old days when my weather station data showed it was actuality it's above normal. The Tampa Bay area's average yearly rainfall and summer rainy season rainfall has increased a bit up from the old average.

Now, maybe your immediate local area hasn't had as much as most of the Tampa Bay area the last few years, for example, as I said in a post earlier, most of Central and South Florida had a very rainy and stormy summer last year, but my little local area was one of the few that didn't have much until September.

That's part of living in a climate like Florida that get's most of it's rain from heavy thunderstorms. Convective rain is very difficult to predict and can get stuck in random patterns locally. Some places can locally get well above average and others well below in a given year. But in the end, everything averages out. And the good news is that long term, average doesn't indicate the rainy season here is decreasing, if anything, it has increased slowly over the last 30 years based on long term climate data.
Quoting 197. Dakster:



Not cool Washi. (pun intended)
lol.You know its bad when we have days in the mid 80's with clouds and it feels "cool" outside.That's how hot we've been that 80's temps feels like dish water.
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

We have a shot at reaching or surpassing 100 tomorrow with strong to server storms.Oh how lovely...
Are you ready for fall and winter?
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:
Not if you follow the last 2 summers as examples.
No--but a certain thing can happen three years in a row and still be considered unusual*.
Quoting 161. StAugustineFL:
Yep, there has never been probabilities of below normal temps in late June in the eastern two thirds of the CONUS
The term "unusual" shouldn't be confused with the very different term "unprecedented", as they're nowhere close to being the same.
Quoting 178. georgevandenberghe:
Not really unusual*.
My use of the term "unusual" in #158 in conjunction with the CPC's 6-10 day temperature probability outlook map seems to have caused a bit of consternation and confusion. But it's not that difficult, really:

un-usu-al: (un-YOOZH-wuhl) adjective 1 : not normal or usual.


That map, as the name implies, shows the probability that temperature will be above or below normal for a given location and time span, with the deepest colors indicating the greatest probability of temperature anomalies. So when that map displays large areas of red and/or blue, it is by definition depicting the unusual. Now, @tampabaymatt, that doesn't mean the pattern hasn't happened in previous years. @StAugustineFL, that doesn't mean it's never happened before. And @georgevandenberghe, that doesn't mean the term "unusual" is being misapplied. It simply means that parts of the US are in for some unusual--"not normal or usual"--temperatures.

Hope that helps...
Quoting 202. Neapolitan:

No--but a certain thing can happen three years in a row and still be considered unusual*.The term "unusual" shouldn't be confused with the very different term "unprecedented", as they're nowhere close to being the same.My use of the term "unusual" in #158 in conjunction with the CPC's 6-10 day temperature probability outlook map seems to have caused a bit of consternation. But it's not that difficult, really:



That map, as the name implies, shows the probability that temperature will be above or below normal for a given location and time span, with the deepest colors indicating the greatest probability of temperature anomalies. So when that map displays large areas of red and/or blue, it is by definition depicting the unusual. Now, @tampabaymatt, that doesn't mean the pattern hasn't happened in previous years. @StAugustineFL, that doesn't mean it's never happened before. And @georgevandenberghe, that doesn't mean the term "unusual" is being misapplied. It simply means that No--but a certain thing can happen three years in a row and still be considered unusual*.The term "unusual" shouldn't be confused with the very different term "unprecedented", as they're nowhere close to being the same.My use of the term "unusual" in #158 in conjunction with the CPC's 6-10 day temperature probability outlook map seems to have caused a bit of consternation. But it's not that difficult, really:That map, as the name implies, shows the probability that temperature will be above or below normal for a given location and time span, with the deepest colors indicating the greatest probability of temperature anomalies. So when that map displays large areas of red and/or blue, it is by definition depicting the unusual. Now, @tampabaymatt, that doesn't mean the pattern hasn't happened in previous years. @StAugustineFL, that doesn't mean it's never happened before. And @georgevandenberghe, that doesn't mean the term "unusual" is being misapplied.

Hope that helps...arts of the US are in for some unusual--"not normal or usual"--temperatures.

Hope that helps...


The CPC temperature probability map is a reflection of temperature anomalies and confidence in such a forecast, seeing z850 & 1000 temperature anomalies & z500 heights maximize ~1.5-2.0 standard deviations below normal east of the continental divide isn't terribly unusual for this time of the year, despite what you're purposely making it out to be.




Just like when I was a kid. :)

Quoting 200. washingtonian115:

lol.You know its bad when we have days in the mid 80's with clouds and it feels "cool" outside.That's how hot we've been that 80's temps feels like dish water.


You know It is bad when in the spring I saw pallets of A/C units in the stores up here in Alaska and they are all gone now.

Kind of like seeing a bunch of studded snow tires on cars in MIami would be an odd sight.
Quoting 102. JRRP:




Only 2.8mm/0.1" here

What a shame!
Quoting 184. Dakster:



M6.. Okey Dokey. If a Z1 erupts, let me know. Time to go into a bunker.

And just so you know, Z was created because:

The extreme event in 1859 is theorised to have been well over X40 so a Z class designation is possible.
The M6 flare should be affecting Earth now. I don't hear anything on the daytime HF bands like 20 and 40 meters, good or bad, that would indicate the flare is doing anything to the ionosphere that affects the lower bands. Maybe something might change after dark on 80 meters but so far, like most flares in the last year or so, it's a disappointment.
Quoting 201. Climate175:

Are you ready for fall and winter?


Yes
Good evening hello from Germany where it rained gently on and off the whole day. I've picked up 10 mm = 0,4 inches so far. Really not a compensation for the huge deficit that has built up the last four months, but certainly a relief. The rain stopped a lot of people to visit the last evening of our four days (nights) long Midsummer St. John's Night Festival with its final fireworks on the banks of Rhine. I was out though to record the last minutes for you (see below). Usually it would have been impossible to stand quietly on this central place between Theater, Johannes-Gutenberg-Monument and Cathedral as in other years this square would have been packed with cheering people, lol.



BTW, sorry to hear that our CaribBoy in St Barthelemy got even less rain out of this tropical wave in the Caribbean ...
Quoting 208. sar2401:

The M6 flare should be affecting Earth now. I don't hear anything on the daytime HF bands like 20 and 40 meters, good or bad, that would indicate the flare is doing anything to the ionosphere that affects the lower bands. Maybe something might change after dark on 80 meters but so far, like most flares in the last year or so, it's a disappointment.


SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A severe ***G4***-class geomagnetic storm is in progress on June 22nd. This follows a series of rapid-fire CME strikes to Earth's magnetic field during the past 24 hours. Magnetic fields in the wake of the latest CME are strongly coupled to Earth's own magnetic field. This is a condition that could sustain the geomagnetic storm for many hours to come. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight. - Spaceweather.com

G4 (Severe)

Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.
Quoting 203. Neapolitan:

No--but a certain thing can happen three years in a row and still be considered unusual*.The term "unusual" shouldn't be confused with the very different term "unprecedented", as they're nowhere close to being the same.My use of the term "unusual" in #158 in conjunction with the CPC's 6-10 day temperature probability outlook map seems to have caused a bit of consternation and confusion. But it's not that difficult, really:



That map, as the name implies, shows the probability that temperature will be above or below normal for a given location and time span, with the deepest colors indicating the greatest probability of temperature anomalies. So when that map displays large areas of red and/or blue, it is by definition depicting the unusual. Now, @tampabaymatt, that doesn't mean the pattern hasn't happened in previous years. @StAugustineFL, that doesn't mean it's never happened before. And @georgevandenberghe, that doesn't mean the term "unusual" is being misapplied. It simply means that parts of the US are in for some unusual--"not normal or usual"--temperatures.

Hope that helps...


Actually what's odd for me this year (and a few others) is that we have not had any outbreaks of dry canadian continental air get as far south as DC metro. We usually get a few in June. We did get an impressive cold spell June 2-6 from continental polar air that got rained into, cooled to its wet bulb (upper 40s to low 50s) and then wedged into the coastal plain east of the appalachans. Since then.. we've alternated between moderately warm and humid and hot and very humid. But the likely below normal pattern will be refreshing when it verifies
in the last week of the month as looks increasingly likely.


All month.
Quoting 211. barbamz:

Good evening hello from Germany where it rained gently on and off the whole day. I've picked up 10 mm = 0,4 inches so far. Really not a compensation for the huge deficit that has built up the last four months, but certainly a relief. The rain stopped a lot of people to visit the last evening of our four days (nights) long Midsummer St. John's Night Festival with its final fireworks on the banks of Rhine. I was out though to record the last minutes for you (see below). Usually it would have been impossible to stand quietly on this central place between Theater, Johannes-Gutenberg-Monument and Cathedral as in other years this square would have been packed with cheering people, lol.



BTW, sorry to hear that our CaribBoy in St Barthelemy got even less rain out of this tropical wave in the Caribbean ...


We don't mark or celebrate "Midsummers eve" on the solstice as you do. Maybe we should although it's early summer everywhere in the U.S. Our hottest weeks average the third or fourth week of July in most of the Eastern two thirds of the U.S. But I've thought for many years we should note the solstice more than we do.
Quoting 212. redwagon:



SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A severe ***G4***-class geomagnetic storm is in progress on June 22nd. This follows a series of rapid-fire CME strikes to Earth's magnetic field during the past 24 hours. Magnetic fields in the wake of the latest CME are strongly coupled to Earth's own magnetic field. This is a condition that could sustain the geomagnetic storm for many hours to come. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight. - Spaceweather.com

G4 (Severe)

Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.
Yes, well, SpaceWeather tends to get a little breathless with these disturbances. NOAA's current forecast is ---

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 21 2015 1820 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2015

Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance
for R3 (Strong) or greater.


That's consistent with what I'm hearing on the HF bands now. There is a little more atmospheric noise than usual but none of the marker stations used as references are stronger than normal or have blackout conditions. Predicting the effect of these CME's on Earth makes hurricane forecasting look easy. :-)
Quoting 215. sar2401:

Yes, but are you willing to stay up for auroras? seeing that Alabama is
singled out for viewing possibility.
This looks interesting for the mid-atlantic. Significant rain?




Quoting 138. redwagon:



Those are LOW temps, right?
Not exactly. 0100 CDT. If I can be at 67 at 0100, that would be fabulous. I haven't been below 80 degrees at 0100 for the last five days.
Quoting 217. Tornado6042008X:

This looks interesting for the mid-atlantic. Significant rain?





We will have to wait and see what the purple dots tell us. :-)
Quoting 214. georgevandenberghe:

We don't mark or celebrate "Midsummers eve" on the solstice as you do. Maybe we should although it's early summer everywhere in the U.S. Our hottest weeks average the third or fourth week of July in most of the Eastern two thirds of the U.S. But I've thought for many years we should note the solstice more than we do.


Well, it's a convenient time as the days are very long with sunset at 9.40 pm (summertime). Moreover on June 24 is St. John's day which also reminds of Johannes (= John) Gutenberg, the inventor of print who was born, lived, worked and died in Mainz. That's why Mainz got this special festival tradition for already some decades now. You won't find it in many other places in Germany, though. Different thing in northern countries of Europe with their common solstice traditions.
I remember I use to post about how Wilmington never really much had a summer in 2013 to which our own NWS stated in their discussion..odd its now unusual..

These were some of the maps in summer 2013 for example..





Part of our climate summary from 2013:
PERSISTENT
WET WEATHER DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF MAY WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL RAINFALL AND GENERALLY COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN
THE CAROLINAS ALL THE WAY THROUGH AUGUST.



Quoting 216. redwagon:

Quoting 215. sar2401:

Yes, but are you willing to stay up for auroras? seeing that Alabama is
singled out for viewing possibility.
I'm not sure why Alabama was singled out but, if there's ever a chance of seeing an aurora here, it would most likely be in north Alabama, in the Huntsville area. I'm about 110 miles from the Gulf. An aurora here, while not impossible, would be way beyond unusual. If I hear any of the other hams talk about it on the radio, I'll go outside and check it out. Otherwise, I'm not leaving the A/C. I had to walk about 500 feet from my car to the drugstore an hour ago and just about keeled over. The temperature is 99 with a dewpoint of 76. Even for mid-July, it would be terrible. For June 22, it's beyond terrible.
Quoting 217. Tornado6042008X:

This looks interesting for the mid-atlantic. Significant rain?





Looks like we are gonna have a big rainstorm this weekend.
CMC is showing this.
225. beell
Usually, it is our own personal expectations of the usual that is unusual.
Coastal Storm possibly.
Quoting 220. barbamz:


Well, it's a convient time as the days are very long with sunset at 9.40 pm (summertime). Moreover on June 24 is St. John's day which also reminds of Johannes (= John) Gutenberg, the inventor of print who was born, lived, worked and died in Mainz. That's why Mainz got this special festival tradition for already some decades now. You won't find it in many other places in Germany, though. Different thing in northern countries of Europe with their common solstice traditions.


I like y'alls Lenten Parades with the costumes and smacking around parade-watchers with pig bladders,
the forced sausage stuffing of same, the pretzel gifting, looks crazy!
Quoting 223. Climate175:

Looks like we are gonna have a big rainstorm this weekend.
Now just put this exact setup 6 months from now.........
Quoting 228. Tornado6042008X:

Now just put this exact setup 6 months from now.........
Yep.
Quoting 188. Jedkins01:



Yeah Central Pinellas has had a lot of rain so far, and I guess it's only fair because June last year was extremely wet for Central and South Florida with most places getting 10-15 inches, yet last June we had only 3.9, and July we had only 4.83 and and 5.52 in August, despite that all 3 months were very wet in much of Central and South Florida. We did catch up though in September, the total was a soaking 15.89 here which helped make up some for the well below average rains in June through August.



I had a little over 10 inches in May and 3.47 inches for June so far. Both are above normal, but the way the rain fell is what's weird. With the exception of one small "normal" rainstorm, about 10 inches of that 13 inches fell in torrential storms that lasted less than 45 minutes. Five of these events since May 20. I would normally see one or maybe two in the whole year. The atmosphere seems to be carrying a moisture load far above normal, and that all started in mid-May.

I have a storm with 35,000 foot echo tops just to the north of me that's poking along. If it makes it here, it will be another torrential event. There's already been street flooding from it in Phenix City and Columbus. I really wonder if this kind of atmosphere wasn't at least partially responsible for Bill's lifespan. Even is states like Kentucky and West Virginia, that are still below average even after Bill went though, had some pretty healthy rainfall totals. I hate to bring up AGW in association with Bill or the storms I've been having, but the warmer atmosphere carrying a greater load of moisture is certainly consistent with some of the early effects we should see.

EDIT: That one small storm formed into a decent small line of storms. The line, instead of forming on an east-west axis, decided it liked north-south better. It has now formed an almost perfect arc around Eufaula as it moves south. Nice little gust outflow on radar, headed west. It looks like I won't be adding to my torrential total with this one.

Auroras in Kiama, south of Sydney, Australia, June 22, 2015.
There is more than likely a good-sized tornado down just NW of Albia, IA (and moving SE).

Quoting 228. Tornado6042008X:

Now just put this exact setup 6 months from now.........
Hehehe (rubbing hands together).But honestly this is what happens when drought is brought up in D.C.With the exception of the summer of 2012 every time the word drought is brought up we are given rain alright..LOTS of it.So much so that we are then lead into flooding conditions...
Quoting 233. washingtonian115:

Hehehe (rubbing hands together).But honestly this is what happens when drought is brought up in D.C.With the exception of the summer of 2012 every time the word drought is brought up we are given rain alright..LOTS of it.So much so that we are then lead into flooding conditions...
Jamming indeed!
Quoting 225. beell:

Usually, it is our own personal expectations of the usual that is unusual.

But in the case under discussion, it is historical data that define the forecast weather as unusual.
Quoting 189. Webberweather53:



Aside from being representative of the background tropical forcing w/ MJO amplification in the eastern hemisphere likely being driven in part by & responding to the onset of the southeastern Asia monsoon (& this is also consistent with an interesting 3 month periodicity in high amplitude MJO events over Indian ocean of late), the station-based Southern Oscillation index is the noisiest & one of the poorest measures of ENSO (unless you actually filter the index for ENSO (>90 days) by taking either/or a tri-monthly or pentad average) as confirmed by Wolter & Timlin (2011) "El Nino/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext" Link. It's also not surprising that they conclude the BEST & MEI.ext multivariate indices which incorporated more than one variable or dataset, had the strongest correlations to all other indices and since they monitored multiple "symptoms" of ENSO, they likely captured variability in ENSO that other "inferior" indices missed. Unfortunately, most of the literature I've come across suffers from some of the same issues as w/ the SOI, NINO 3.4 SSTs (from one dataset), & CTI, by using <2 variables/datasets to rebuild the ENSO record. I think it's about time that an ensemble-based approach was fervidly applied to reconstruct & confidently extract (w/ an exceptionally high resolution), the most important variable in seasonal forecasting from the 150-yr observed record. ENSO...

Ya know, Eric, reading your posts makes me realize how much smarter I could have been if I took the time to actually study when I was your age. You have a tremendous future ahead of you.
Quoting 232. WIBadgerWeather:

There is more than likely a good-sized tornado down just NW of Albia, IA (and moving SE).


So far, so good for you guys up in Wisconsin. There are some storms breaking out now, and they may get a little more organized in a couple of hours, but not a high impact event at this point.
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

We have a shot at reaching or surpassing 100 tomorrow with strong to server storms.Oh how lovely...


some scary fuel for those storms too
240. beell
Quoting 236. AdamReith:

But in the case under discussion, it is historical data that define the forecast weather as unusual.


In that context, you are 100% correct. No place for personal "feelings".

-_-
Quoting 186. MahFL:



If it was humid we would have had rain, but we had a massive ridge over us which kept us dry, both humidity and rainfall.
I thought it was still pretty humid in Florida, even with the ridge. I'm under the influence of the same ridge and the humidity has been remarkably high. When we get this kind of ridge, we usually have subsiding air with low humidity, but not this time. It's making the high temperatures that much more disagreeable. The upside is any kind of trigger at all sets off thunderstorms pretty quickly, which is nice if you happen to be under one.
Quoting 241. Gearsts:


-_-


not a bad wave considering the conditions it's in lol
Quoting 240. beell:



In that context, you are 100% correct. No place for personal "feelings".
I had a feeling you'd say that...
Death toll of the awful heatwave in Pakistan increased in the last hours (boy, I really prefer our current cold snap in Germany):

Heatwave in Pakistan's Sindh province leaves 224 dead
BBC report with video, 7 hours ago

Pakistan heatwave leaves over 200 dead
BBC weather video, 22 June 2015 Last updated at 18:08
Over 200 people are now believed to have died during a heatwave in Pakistan's southern Sindh province. Health officials say most of the deaths have been in the largest city, Karachi, which has experienced temperatures as high as 45C (111F) in recent days. BBC Weather's Peter Gibbs has the latest.

Good night everyone with hopefully convenient weather!
Quoting 239. Articuno:



some scary fuel for those storms too
Some high cape values we'll be available tomorrow.4500 cape value will be present and I highly doubt the mountains will do anything to break up these storms.They didn't do a damn of good for ex Bill's remnants..
WOW HOT WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY
Thank goodness! relief is on the way!

NWS Melbourne Florida.

THU-MON (MODIFIED PREV)...A WELCOME TREND FOR INCREASING RAIN CHCS
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE FL EAST COAST) IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS THE ZONAL JET BRINGS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF ACRS
THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EN ROUTE FOR NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLC FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROF WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF
UPROOTING THE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ATLC RIDGE THRU WEEK`S END...IT WILL
BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS ITS AXIS BACK TO THE SOUTH.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
OVER THE CTRL-SRN CWA...BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO SOUTH FL THRU THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S BY SUNSET
THU...THEN TO THE SW BY DAYBREAK SAT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL SHIFT
OF HIGHEST DIURNAL POPS FROM THE INTERIOR COUNTIES BACK TO THE E FL
COAST. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG WITH MAXES L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.

SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS NORTH FL BY MON...
WHICH WILL LIKELY PORTEND EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NEXT MONDAY.

&&
Quoting 231. barbamz:


Auroras in Kiama, south of Sydney, Australia, June 22, 2015.

Way cool!
That storm se of iowa city's still discrete. I'm surprised it still is.
Quoting 236. AdamReith:

But in the case under discussion, it is historical data that define the forecast weather as unusual.
Well, maybe. First of all it's a forecast and not weather. Second, if the weather actually occurs, then looking at historical data will give an answer as to how unusual the actual weather.

Kind of like, if you're used to your (insert spouse, friend, boss, whatever) treating you a certain way (the usual) and another person comes along, you'd possibly tend to apply that expectation (the usual) by "forecasting" it (the usual) onto the next person - which is a BIG mistake - because the other person (the actual weather) may not be at all like "the usual." Best to wait and see what that other's intention is and not apply a label until you allow him/her to demonstrate her behavior as her own, which may or may not be "the usual."
;)
........
Ps. Re: Neo's quoted words (comment 203)... My usual would be to give credit to wu bloggers for having brains enough to understand the difference between the words, "unusual" and "unprecedented." I understand your usual may vary.
Quoting 234. Climate175:



I'm going to imagine I'm standing out in that snowfall now. High of 94 today, and possibly breaking 100 in a few days D:
Chile's Santiago declares smog emergency
BBC, 22 June 2015
Authorities in Chile's capital Santiago have imposed emergency measures amid rising pollution.
According to city officials, pollution has reached a "critical level".
Under the measures, around 40% of cars with a catalyst and 80% of those without are banned from the streets from 07:30 until 21:00 on Monday.
This June has been the driest since 1968 and the lack of rain has contributed to the poor air quality in the capital, officials say.
Santiago is located in a valley and when there is little wind and no rain, smog can hang over the city of six million inhabitants for days. ....
Quoting 237. sar2401:


Ya know, Eric, reading your posts makes me realize how much smarter I could have been if I took the time to actually study when I was your age. You have a tremendous future ahead of you.


Thanks, I really appreciate the kind words Sar.

I just finished creating the 2m temperature anomaly time series (w/ 30-yr sliding base periods updated every 5 years) for the relatively new CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2c dataset in the NINO 3.4 region. NOAA 20CR v2c really likes the 1877-78 Super El Nino, & even at first glance, it's not hard to see that ENSO's variance & amplitude has changed quite dramatically in the last 150 years. Consistent with other datasets I've analyzed thus far, an appreciable lull in ENSO activity occurred in the 1920s-1940s, & modern era amplitude is reminiscent of the late 19th-early 20th centuries.

Intense Heat tomorrow.
Tropical wave was feeding off the ITCZ and going to be out of high shear soon and the monster anticyclone should give it a chance at developing as shear goes bye bye. I'm a novice, sure there are many good reasons this won't come to pass. I look forward to reading them. Just a wave and after today, very little convection gonna be left best I've got.
Quoting 253. barbamz:

Chile's Santiago declares smog emergency
BBC, 22 June 2015
Authorities in Chile's capital Santiago have imposed emergency measures amid rising pollution.
According to city officials, pollution has reached a "critical level".
Under the measures, around 40% of cars with a catalyst and 80% of those without are banned from the streets from 07:30 until 21:00 on Monday.
This June has been the driest since 1968 and the lack of rain has contributed to the poor air quality in the capital, officials say.
Santiago is located in a valley and when there is little wind and no rain, smog can hang over the city of six million inhabitants for days. ....

Santiago is like the Los Angeles of South America. The air is always trapped in the bowl created by the surrounding mountains. It looks like L.A., has about the same climate as L.A., and even has earthquakes like L.A. The last time I was there was in 1976, right after the first phase of the Metro opened. The smog was so thick you couldn't see the mountains, it hurt to breathe, the country was under a military dictatorship, and the slums were some of the worst I've seen in the western world. I understand it's gotten better now. It sure couldn't have gotten much worse.
All this heat and humidity reminds me of the Robin Williams skit he did in the Movie Good morning Vietnam.



https://youtu.be/DpktBGInl60

Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

I see you have come back to blog with us again :)
Sorry, hun. Don't count on it. I only came back to ask sar the question he seems to have missed, since WU mail is being retarded for me. I've gotten over the ban, but imo there are better reasons to stay away. Like post 51, for example:
"I hope you guys in the NE US have enjoyed your Summer as a much cooler regime is about to take hold and could last thru the rest of Summer. El-Nino is beginning to really intensify causing a major pattern changes across the US record heat across the NW US and possible record cold across the NE US with 8 sigma temps on the way!%uFFFDbr style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice Jun 21br style="box-sizing: border-box;">The atmospheric ENSO index (AEI) now approaching 2.5 sigma in 2 weeks. Analogs to current state kills off summer."

That's a pretty untenable claim. Don't get me wrong; Scott's a good guy. I know he is. But it doesn't matter. This mentality is rampant, and is seems extraordinary claims DON'T require extraordinary evidence anymore.

For the record, I'm fine with the prospect of a "cold" blast. But it's not going to end the summer.
Quoting 243. Articuno:



not a bad wave considering the conditions it's in lol
The twave in a nutshell! It split in 2 and i got 5 min of rain.
261. JRRP



Quoting 254. Webberweather53:



Thanks, I really appreciate the kind words Sar.

I just finished creating the 2m temperature anomaly time series (w/ 30-yr sliding base periods updated every 5 years) for the relatively new CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2c dataset in the NINO 3.4 region. NOAA 20CR v2c really likes the 1877-78 Super El Nino, & even at first glance, it's not hard to see that ENSO's variance & amplitude has changed quite dramatically in the last 150 years. Consistent with other datasets I've analyzed thus far, an appreciable lull in ENSO activity occurred in the 1920s-1940s, & modern era amplitude is reminiscent of the late 19th-early 20th centuries.


You're welcome. I expect to see great things from you and the other young people here, so don't start slacking off on me.

Your chart sure shows a high amplitude El Nino has almost invariably been followed by a high amplitude La Nina. Assuming 2015 turns out to be high amplitude, a strong La Nina following it seems like a very high probability event. Did you come up with anything from your data that gives you a clue how long on average a La Nina lasts after a big-time El Nino? Just eyeballing your chart, it looks some of them lasted four or five years.
Quoting 203. Neapolitan:

No--but a certain thing can happen three years in a row and still be considered unusual*.The term "unusual" shouldn't be confused with the very different term "unprecedented", as they're nowhere close to being the same.My use of the term "unusual" in #158 in conjunction with the CPC's 6-10 day temperature probability outlook map seems to have caused a bit of consternation and confusion. But it's not that difficult, really:



That map, as the name implies, shows the probability that temperature will be above or below normal for a given location and time span, with the deepest colors indicating the greatest probability of temperature anomalies. So when that map displays large areas of red and/or blue, it is by definition depicting the unusual. Now, @tampabaymatt, that doesn't mean the pattern hasn't happened in previous years. @StAugustineFL, that doesn't mean it's never happened before. And @georgevandenberghe, that doesn't mean the term "unusual" is being misapplied. It simply means that parts of the US are in for some unusual--"not normal or usual"--temperatures.

Hope that helps...


Are you a climate scientist? If so can you please share some of your work? Thanks!
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:

Sorry, hun. Don't count on it. I only came back to ask sar the question he seems to have missed, since WU mail is being retarded for me.
I just got back far enough in the blog to see your post, Kori. I...uh...well...forgot all about the email. Sorry, man. I'll get one out first thing in the morning.

Blake was tweeting some garbage about this being some kind of 8 sigma thing coming up, and I imagine that's where it came from in the post. Seems like him and Ventrice feed off one another. I have to wonder if they are using that phrase as meaning "This will be really, really, exciting". An 8 sigma event has about the same probability as something like total life extinction on earth. I don't think this pattern change will be quite that drastic. You're right though. There are people here who routinely make extraordinary claims. At least Scott tries to give some justification. We have others that I think just make things up. It's a little depressing to constantly see that kind of thing on a blog which is at least tangentially related to science.
Quoting 264. KoritheMan:

While I'm still here: sar, did you ever email me? I haven't gotten anything yet if you did.
We crossed. Look for it in your inbox in the morning. My fiance is beckoning to me with her come hither look. I think I'll be busy for a while. :-)
Quoting 263. Gstorm:



Are you a climate scientist? If so can you please share some of your work? Thanks!
First post, huh? What makes you think anything Nea wrote in the post you quoted made him out to be a climate scientist? He was trying to explain his use of the word "unusual". If anything, I'd think maybe he was an English professor. I'm going to make a wild guess though. You think this whole global warming thing is a crock, and Nea is like one of the inventors of this fraud.

Close?

(I'll be right there, honey. Really.)
Quoting 256. DeepSeaRising:

Tropical wave was feeding off the ITCZ and going to be out of high shear soon and the monster anticyclone should give it a chance at developing as shear goes bye bye. I'm a novice, sure there are many good reasons this won't come to pass. I look forward to reading them. Just a wave and after today, very little convection gonna be left best I've got.

Once a cyclone like this lucks into an anticyclone in his path and hits a sweet spot,
anything can happen. This guy tracked all the way from AFR, slipping through a thousand
miles of SAL, and still made it to where he is now. Bill has been remarkably persistent;
maybe this guy will be, too, or maybe he'll be POOF in the AM.
Also, if anyone gets the wrong idea, it isn't the "cold" snap I'm against next week. That seems quite possible. I'd like the ridge to stick around so I can see a decent US landfall, but my prejudices don't influence the weather.

What's irritating to me is that he's literally saying summer could be over when it just ****ing started. One longwave ain't gonna do that. Even if we got a MONTH of below normal temperatures it wouldn't mean summer was over. Look at 2004.
Quoting 260. Gearsts:

The twave in a nutshell! It split in 2 and i got 5 min of rain.


happened here in pr, got some surfing done tho
Quoting 266. sar2401:

We crossed. Look for it in your inbox in the morning. My fiance is beckoning to me with her come hither look. I think I'll be busy for a while. :-)


Be a gentleman. Don't keep her waiting. :)
Quoting 270. KoritheMan:

Also, if anyone gets the wrong idea, it isn't the "cold" snap I'm against next week. That seems quite possible. I'd like the ridge to stick around so I can see a decent US landfall, but my prejudices don't influence the weather.

What's irritating to me is that he's literally saying summer could be over when it just ****ing started. One longwave ain't gonna do that. Even if we got a MONTH of below normal temperatures it wouldn't mean summer was over. Look at 2004.


So, just to recap folks, posting that you hope for a US landfall is somehow less offensive and irritating than saying summer might be over for the NE due to a cold front. Got it?
Quoting 273. tampabaymatt:



So, just to recap folks, posting that you hope for a US landfall is somehow less offensive and irritating than saying summer might be over for the NE due to a cold front. Got it?


It's not at all, actually.

The point of my post was evidence. Any moral implications made here are entirely optional.
Quoting 265. sar2401:

I just got back far enough in the blog to see your post, Kori. I...uh...well...forgot all about the email. Sorry, man. I'll get one out first thing in the morning.

Blake was tweeting some garbage about this being some kind of 8 sigma thing coming up, and I imagine that's where it came from in the post. Seems like him and Ventrice feed off one another. I have to wonder if they are using that phrase as meaning "This will be really, really, exciting". An 8 sigma event has about the same probability as something like total life extinction on earth. I don't think this pattern change will be quite that drastic. You're right though. There are people here who routinely make extraordinary claims. At least Scott tries to give some justification. We have others that I think just make things up. It's a little depressing to constantly see that kind of thing on a blog which is at least tangentially related to science.


Yeah, Scott's not bad. I took him off ignore for a reason.

He has a problem with being overzealous and not thinking before he posts, though. Jumping to conclusions is bad in meteorology (in anything, really). I do it too sometimes in other areas of life though. It's a flaw I'm not afraid to admit I have. We're all works in progress.

Scott, that wasn't an attack on you personally. Just your methodology and enthusiastic interpretation of data.
Quoting 274. KoritheMan:



It's not at all, actually.

The point of my post was evidence. Any moral implications made here are entirely optional.


His comment was clearly hyperbole. I'm pretty sure Scott doesn't think summer will be over for the NE due to one trough. You implied his comment was a reason not to post here, while getting in a dig about hoping for a US landfall. Sorry, I don't get it.
East coast troughing/west coast ridging is so played out. May of this year was a nice break from that.
Quoting 267. sar2401:

First post, huh? What makes you think anything Nea wrote in the post you quoted made him out to be a climate scientist? He was trying to explain his use of the word "unusual". If anything, I'd think maybe he was an English professor. I'm going to make a wild guess though. You think this whole global warming thing is a crock, and Nea is like one of the inventors of this fraud.

Close?

(I'll be right there, honey. Really.)


No, actually I think humans contribute to Global Warming. What I consider creditable science, is actual science and not keyboard warriors pretending to be scientist. I have read back several blog post and what is the debate? With my professional opinion, seems like there is major hype with both sides of the debate.

Quoting 276. tampabaymatt:



I'm pretty sure Scott doesn't think summer will be over for the NE due to one trough.
Reread his post:

"I hope you guys in the NE US have enjoyed your Summer as a much cooler regime is about to take hold and could last thru the rest of Summer."

What's your interpretation of that?


Quoting 276. tampabaymatt:



You implied his comment was a reason not to post here,
I didn't imply. I said it. But it's not just that comment, and it's definitely not just him. 90% of people here couldn't forecast their way out of a paper bag, as my friend who used to post here once said. I admire those who are learning (like Scott), but a lot of people don't even do that. I've seen people quotemine me, Levi, Cody, ANYONE. I used to do it, too. Anyone can pretend they're smart by quoting the people that DO know what they're talking about.

Quoting 276. tampabaymatt:



while getting in a dig about hoping for a US landfall. Sorry, I don't get it.
That dig may have been unnecessary, but what's your point in highlighting it, exactly?
For weather and real life moments, you must eat the pudding, or, as Lauren Bacall observed,
"You can't act the scene before it's played."
Quoting 277. 1900hurricane:

East coast troughing/west coast ridging is so played out. May of this year was a nice break from that.
If you say so. lpl

Quoting 277. 1900hurricane:

East coast troughing/west coast ridging is so played out. May of this year was a nice break from that.
We've had east coast ridging the last two weeks or so as well.
tornado reported on the ground near Sublette Illinois ..
Quoting 186. MahFL:



If it was humid we would have had rain, but we had a massive ridge over us which kept us dry, both humidity and rainfall.


Our humidity has been on the low side during the recent afternoons where rain has not fallen (which is most recent afternoons). It has ranged between 40-50%, which I believe is a bit below average, since many days this time of year feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Atlantic actually looks good for an el nino year. AMO currently a little more positive, and also, a negative NAO is forecasted thru the end of this month.


CME Update: Updated coronagraph imagery by LASCO C2 reveals a full halo, Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun following the double M-Flare event.

This could be good news for sky watchers by the beginning of the new week as geomagnetic storming will be quite possible.

More updates to follow.

solarham.net




Quoting 278. Gstorm:



No, actually I think humans contribute to Global Warming. What I consider creditable science, is actual science and not keyboard warriors pretending to be scientist. I have read back several blog post and what is the debate? With my professional opinion, seems like there is major hype with both sides of the debate.


I'm not sure that it's useful stating "my professional opinion" without stating what that profession is.
Quoting 286. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Atlantic actually looks good for an el nino year. AMO currently a little more positive, and also, a negative NAO is forecasted thru the end of this month.
We have 5 months of hurricane season to go through and anything can happen, it's early.

Quoting 286. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Atlantic actually looks good for an el nino year. AMO currently a little more positive, and also, a negative NAO is forecasted thru the end of this month.
Cold waters from Africa to the Caribbean is what you call a "more positive AMO"? >_>
Deep "derp" detected....Captain,

Quoting 288. DCSwithunderscores:



I'm not sure that it's useful stating "my professional opinion" without stating what that profession is.


I got you a jacket.

Quoting 277. 1900hurricane:

East coast troughing/west coast ridging is so played out. May of this year was a nice break from that.
Quoting 252. Huracan94:


I'm going to imagine I'm standing out in that snowfall now. High of 94 today, and possibly breaking 100 in a few days D:


Only one hot day, tomorrow tuesday. Then just warm with maybe a decent break this weekend in DC area.

I did not break records for first tomato or corn but may for first melon and have for tomatoes in volume. I'm already taking excess tomatoes to work and I usually don't get my first fruit until the last days of June. Can't really exploit it cuz I have three teens, work, housework and responsibilities and thus little time as the weeds grow two feet a week in the wet warm soil so it's getting away from me.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

You're welcome. I expect to see great things from you and the other young people here, so don't start slacking off on me.

Your chart sure shows a high amplitude El Nino has almost invariably been followed by a high amplitude La Nina. Assuming 2015 turns out to be high amplitude, a strong La Nina following it seems like a very high probability event. Did you come up with anything from your data that gives you a clue how long on average a La Nina lasts after a big-time El Nino? Just eyeballing your chart, it looks some of them lasted four or five years.


I want to finish at least the NINO 3.4 SST component of this project (w/ the ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, HADISST1, HADSST3, Kaplanv1, Kaplan Extended v2, IOCADSv2.5 ONI calculated, (COBEv2 & OISSTv2 will have to wait for now)) before I begin to dig much deeper into this. The thresholds are delicate, particularly for individual datasets since most are still too noisy on their own (w/ epicenters of noise & uncertainty in the early-mid 1870s, WW II, just before 1950, and even in the latest data (which stems from the filter), and hence the relationships I have found in ERSSTv4 may not be entirely accurate nor representative of the "true" ENSO record. I wouldn't mind getting a chance to also play around with standardized, percentile, or the JMA's criteria to see if significant differences actually emanate from the methodology used to categorize ENSO events. In saying this, (even though the 1870s officially have a longer -ENSO streak, the uncertainty in ENSO before 1877-78 is extremely large), the longest lasting La Nina under ERSSTv4 was 1998-2001 w/ -SST anomalies observed for 45 successive tri-monthlies (MJJ 1998 thru JFM 2002) *(This record may change early next year with the inclusion of the new 1986-2015 base period that will result in permanent ONI values for 2000-04 & temporary alteration to the 2005-2016 ONI data). The statistical relationship between El Nino intensity & subsequent La Nina (-ENSO) length is weak at best (r^2 for linear &/or polynomial fit is ~+.10, womp) and is heavily skewed by the strong NINOs of 1997-98, 1982-83, & 1972-73. The outcomes following the strong 1940-41 & 1902-03 events (particularly the latter of the two) & uncertainties associated with using only one (or even a few datasets for that matter) force me to err on the side of caution wrt this claim.
Quoting 241. Gearsts:


-_-
Wondering how much of that moisture, if any, will make it to the SE Bahamas......

Evening all.... we had a few showers here overnight, enough to make tracks in the dust on the cars, but that's about it. We've been having a drier than average June since the end of the pre-Bill showers. Normally we get afternoon showers until pretty much the solstice, and then things dry out until the tropics get more active again in August. So far the early onset of the "rainy" season is being, predictably, I suppose, followed by early onset dry period.... :o/

Wow nobody talking about the Tornadoes on the ground right now in IL???????????
“Worst Fire Conditions On Record” — As Heatwaves, Drought Bake North American West, Wildfires Erupt From California to Alaska

Deadhorse, at the center of North Slope oil fields above the Arctic Circle set an all time record high of 82 degrees (Fahrenheit) on Sunday. That’s 3 degrees hotter than the previous all time record high of 79 degrees set on August 16, 2004. The hottest reading for June at that location was a 68 degree measure set in 2007. So, basically, Deadhorse just shattered the all-time record for June by 14 degrees (F) and the globally record hot summer of 2015 has only now gotten started.

Link
Quoting 286. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Atlantic actually looks good for an el nino year. AMO currently a little more positive, and also, a negative NAO is forecasted thru the end of this month.

No. There is nothing good about that map if one is wishing for high activity in the Atlantic.
Quoting 295. BahaHurican:

Wondering how much of that moisture, if any, will make it to the SE Bahamas......

Evening all.... we had a few showers here overnight, enough to make tracks in the dust on the cars, but that's about it. We've been having a drier than average June since the end of the pre-Bill showers. Normally we get afternoon showers until pretty much the solstice, and then things dry out until the tropics get more active again in August. So far the early onset of the "rainy" season is being, predictably, I suppose, followed by early onset dry period.... :o/



Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics and mentioned this system. However none of the computer models develop it. And the upper wind forecasts show the upper vortex stalling just east of the Bahamas...so it doesn't look like this weather will make it to the SE Bahamas....
Quoting 298. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No. There is nothing good about that map if one is wishing for high activity in the Atlantic.
replace that cold pool in the MDR with a warm pool or flip the cool pool in the MDR with the warm pool in the western atlantic and there is a perfect set up. been that way for 3 years now.
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:

Sorry, hun. Don't count on it. I only came back to ask sar the question he seems to have missed, since WU mail is being retarded for me. I've gotten over the ban, but imo there are better reasons to stay away. .........etc .......
I don't mind if u ignore us 20 hrs a day, so long as u blog from 03 - 07z ....
Quoting 286. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Atlantic actually looks good for an el nino year. AMO currently a little more positive, and also, a negative NAO is forecasted thru the end of this month.
Really REALLY do not like the red all up over the Bahamas and along the east coast there .... especially since there's nothing much doing in the MDR to allow systems to spin up and head out to sea....
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

I don't mind if u ignore us 20 hrs a day, so long as u blog from 03 - 07z ....
Really REALLY do not like the red all up over the Bahamas and along the east coast there .... especially since there's nothing much doing in the MDR to allow systems to spin up and head out to sea....


You all missed the keyword ;ELNINO YEAR! MOST ELNINO YEARS IN THE ATLANTIC HAVE THE NEAR COLDEST SST'S IN THAT CERTAIN AMO PHASE. ALL I'M SAYING IS THAT FOR AN ELNINO YEAR, THE ATLANTIC DOESN'TLOOK TOO SHABBY!!!!
The way the heat's been feeling the last few days makes me think we'll be lucky to see any tropical moisture before August. I need to spend some more time looking at the ITCZ set up and other things, I admit, but I'm amazed to see as much activity from that Twave in the ECar as we're seeing right now. Not much out there seems to support the likelihood of any serious precipitation from the next few waves, much less something more organized.
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

I don't mind if u ignore us 20 hrs a day, so long as u blog from 03 - 07z ....
Really REALLY do not like the red all up over the Bahamas and along the east coast there .... especially since there's nothing much doing in the MDR to allow systems to spin up and head out to sea....


You all missed the keyword ;ELNINO YEAR! MOST ELNINO YEARS IN THE ATLANTIC HAVE THE NEAR COLDEST SST'S IN THAT CERTAIN AMO PHASE. ALL I'M SAYING IS THAT FOR AN ELNINO YEAR, THE ATLANTIC DOESN'TLOOK TOO SHABBY!!!!
Quoting 302. tiggerhurricanes2001:
You all missed the keyword ;ELNINO YEAR! MOST ELNINO YEARS IN THE ATLANTIC HAVE THE NEAR COLDEST SST'S IN THAT CERTAIN AMO PHASE. ALL I'M SAYING IS THAT FOR AN EL NINO YEAR, THE ATLANTIC DOESN'T LOOK TOO SHABBY!!!!
I didn't miss .... lol .... I'm just not liking the idea that if anything DOES manage to form, it's likely to happen right in my neck of the woods will very little room for error.
Quoting 183. Patrap:

June 22, 2015 @ 18:03 UTC
Strong Solar Flare Detected
A solar flare reaching above M6 level was detected on Monday afternoon beginning around 17:40 UTC.

The source, sunspot 2371 is in a good geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions.


More details later this evening.




solarham.net


No joke, our house lights and power were flickering oddly an hour or so ago. No wind, I didn't hear any sirens from traffic accidents, power's either on or out.

Kinda crazy and cool.
Quoting 200. washingtonian115:

lol.You know its bad when we have days in the mid 80's with clouds and it feels "cool" outside.That's how hot we've been that 80's temps feels like dish water.


We've been in the mid to high 90's for two weeks now. Going to hit triple digits in a few days; but this morning 'round sunrise, thank you weird desert weather, the low bottomed out at 47. Yay for 50 degree temperature swings. :)
Quoting 302. tiggerhurricanes2001:


We can't be doing any worst ;)
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach
Real-time AMO index from Klotzbach and Gray (2008) lowest May value on record (back to 1950).




VS

We are worst for the month of June vs May with those SST, the MDR is all blue vs the subtropics.
PDS south of Chicago.
Quoting 297. ColoradoBob1:

“Worst Fire Conditions On Record” — As Heatwaves, Drought Bake North American West, Wildfires Erupt From California to Alaska

Deadhorse, at the center of North Slope oil fields above the Arctic Circle set an all time record high of 82 degrees (Fahrenheit) on Sunday. That’s 3 degrees hotter than the previous all time record high of 79 degrees set on August 16, 2004. The hottest reading for June at that location was a 68 degree measure set in 2007. So, basically, Deadhorse just shattered the all-time record for June by 14 degrees (F) and the globally record hot summer of 2015 has only now gotten started.

Link


Yeah, excuse my coughing. You can see the snapshots I took of the Markleeville/Alpine County CA fire here. Red sunlight, blood-red crescent moon. What's that, smoke hitting us 200ish miles away? Pretty crazy. Even if any auroras made it down our way, probably couldn't see 'em through the smoke haze.
Another blistering hot day with convection well diminished by early evening. Usually it's dead thereafter. Driving home tonight though, I noticed a building cumulonimbus right in the moonlight. And now sitting here with the door cracked, I am hearing thunder. I've very rarely seen it it happen like this into the later evening, and thinking back to the last time, it was just like this, little tiny isolated cells that had very little motion or stationary and produced quite of bit of lightning!
314. 882MB
Very beautiful lightning show been going on Offshore the north coast of PR. Haven't seen frequent lightning like that in while from the north coast. Very beautiful too watch from such a distance, love these type of nights.

Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

I don't mind if u ignore us 20 hrs a day, so long as u blog from 03 - 07z ....
Really REALLY do not like the red all up over the Bahamas and along the east coast there .... especially since there's nothing much doing in the MDR to allow systems to spin up and head out to sea....



You may have missed my post last week, but I don't plan on leaving entirely. Most of guys are like family to me (not lying), and I'd feel bad if I didn't keep you updated on my personal life and stuff.
Quoting 315. KoritheMan:



You may have missed my post last week, but I don't plan on leaving entirely. Most of guys are like family to me (not lying), and I'd feel bad if I didn't keep you updated on my personal life and stuff.
Yeah, missed that post [last week was KAZY!]..... yeah, it'd be pretty dull around here if u didn't keep the night shift going.... I've been so busy of late I haven't done much wx related stuff... a little blogging while Bill was fomenting is about it. Maybe things'll slow down some next week and I can get some real analysis done. Unlike some on here, my goal is less to forecast and more to understand ... lol ...
Quoting 308. nonblanche:



No joke, our house lights and power were flickering oddly an hour or so ago. No wind, I didn't hear any sirens from traffic accidents, power's either on or out.

Kinda crazy and cool.


Where are you? I'm in Houston, Texas and, so far as I know, we're not experiencing anything like that here. Should I expect to wake up to find my whole city in the dark tomorrow?
Quoting 315. KoritheMan:



You may have missed my post last week, but I don't plan on leaving entirely. Most of guys are like family to me (not lying), and I'd feel bad if I didn't keep you updated on my personal life and stuff.


Yo Kori, are you leaving cause Cody is being mean again?
Quoting 317. pureet1948:



Where are you? I'm in Houston, Texas and, so far as I know, we're not experiencing anything like that here. Should I expect to wake up to find my whole city in the dark tomorrow?


Northern Nevada, roughly level with Reno/Sparks but an hour or so east of that.
Quoting 318. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yo Kori, are you leaving cause Cody is being mean again?


Nah. I'm a big boy. I'd beat Cody in a fight. ;)
Quoting 316. BahaHurican:

Yeah, missed that post [last week was KAZY!]..... yeah, it'd be pretty dull around here if u didn't keep the night shift going.... I've been so busy of late I haven't done much wx related stuff... a little blogging while Bill was fomenting is about it. Maybe things'll slow down some next week and I can get some real analysis done. Unlike some on here, my goal is less to forecast and more to understand ... lol ...


Understanding's good. I wish a lot more people would do it.
Quoting 319. nonblanche:



Northern Nevada, roughly level with Reno/Sparks but an hour or so east of that.


Are you still having problems? Should I prepare for a day or days without electricity due to the solar storm?
Quoting 322. pureet1948:



Are you still having problems? Should I prepare for a day or days without electricity due to the solar storm?


Not that I've seen. If it happens again, I'll fire up the Baofeng and see if any of the local hams are talking it up.
Quoting 323. nonblanche:



Not that I've seen. If it happens again, I'll fire up the Baofeng and see if any of the local hams are talking it up.


Jolly good. Let me know what they say.
pretty mad there are some low level clouds to my north, have always wanted to see an aurora
Quoting 312. nonblanche:



Yeah, excuse my coughing. You can see the snapshots I took of the Markleeville/Alpine County CA fire here. Red sunlight, blood-red crescent moon. What's that, smoke hitting us 200ish miles away? Pretty crazy. Even if any auroras made it down our way, probably couldn't see 'em through the smoke haze.
Hi Blanche. You do have a big fire burning in the Sierra National Forest about 8-10 miles south of Markleville. I think that's a more likely source of that smoke than the fire at Big Bear. Are they still flying tankers from Markleville? CDF had a big fire base there.
Quoting 322. pureet1948:



Are you still having problems? Should I prepare for a day or days without electricity due to the solar storm?
Seriously, is worrying just an avocation or full-time job for you? There's not going to be any electrical outages from this geomagnetic event. The current forecast is for an S2 storm. That's rated as moderate, and far below what's normally needed for power system problems. There's still very little effect on the HF ham bands, with no blackouts and a little fluctuation in signal strength on the reference transmissions. You'll have to find something else to prepare for I'm afraid.
Quoting 326. sar2401:

Hi Blanche. You do have a big fire burning in the Sierra National Forest about 8-10 miles south of Markleville. I think that's a more likely source of that smoke than the fire at Big Bear. Are they still flying tankers from Markleville? CDF had a big fire base there.


Hard to say, SAR. I used the "fire" overlay on the radar map, and there's this big fat wad of smoke and a stack of fire flags... let's see if this shows it:



If not, here's the link
dur. Pls pardon the dupe.
Quoting 327. sar2401:

Seriously, is worrying just an avocation or full-time job for you? There's not going to be any electrical outages from this geomagnetic event. The current forecast is for an S2 storm. That's rated as moderate, and far below what's normally needed for power system problems. There's still very little effect on the HF ham bands, with no blackouts and a little fluctuation in signal strength on the reference transmissions. You'll have to find something else to prepare for I'm afraid.


Oh, I'm just going by what NASA scientists say about the effects of solar flares on things like computers, power grids, iPads, you know, the things we depend on for everyday life. It ain't good news.
Quoting 314. 882MB:

Very beautiful lightning show been going on Offshore the north coast of PR. Haven't seen frequent lightning like that in while from the north coast. Very beautiful too watch from such a distance, love these type of nights.


There's nothing like being anchored out in the tropics and watching a great light show from the stern. When you just have the ocean for a horizon the displays can be really impressive. One of the best I ever saw was anchored out near Culebra. I found a nice little cove sheltered from the usual winds and current there. Perfectly clear sky except for almost constant lightning looking NW, if I remember right. The storms were part of a tropical wave, and the lighting was visible from dusk until just before dawn. I miss that. :-(
Quoting 330. pureet1948:



Oh, I'm just going by what NASA scientists say about the effects of solar flares on things like computers, power grids, iPads, you know, the things we depend on for everyday life. It ain't good news.
Have you seen anything from NASA which says any of those things are at risk from the current flares? There's a difference from what could happen in the worst case scenario and what's forecast.
Awesome light show tonight. I was out fishing tonight (actually waiting around to see if the Hex hatch would start) when i noticed overhead fingers of light. Said heck with it and packed up went home to tell the wife. We sat in the hot tub and watched the show. It is very kool.
Quoting 328. nonblanche:



Hard to say, SAR. I used the "fire" overlay on the radar map, and there's this big fat wad of smoke and a stack of fire flags... let's see if this shows it:



If not, here's the link
Yeah, that's fire in my link. I thought you were talking about smoke from the Big Bear fire as being 200 miles away. The fire near Markleville more like 80 air miles from you. It's 9500 acres and only 10% contained, and it started on June 19. Looks like you'll have to contend with that smoke for a while yet.
Quoting 332. sar2401:

Have you seen anything from NASA which says any of those things are at risk from the current flares? There's a difference from what could happen in the worst case scenario and what's forecast.


No (thank goodness). I was just speaking in general terms.
Quoting 333. TroutMadness:

Awesome light show tonight. I was out fishing tonight (actually waiting around to see if the Hex hatch would start) when i noticed overhead fingers of light. Said heck with it and packed up went home to tell the wife. We sat in the hot tub and watched the show. It is very kool.
Sound really nice. Clear here and still 81 with a 74 dewpoint. At least I get a free sauna bath every time I step outside. :-)
Quoting 335. pureet1948:



No (thank goodness). I was just speaking in general terms.
Well, yes, in general terms, a geomagnetic storm could have some bad outcomes. So could a hurricane, tornado, or flood. As long as the forecast is that it won't really affect you, why worry about it?
Quoting 336. sar2401:

At least I get a free sauna bath every time I step outside. :-)

lol - Actually, it is still very warm here tonite 69.8 right now
Quoting 329. nonblanche:

dur. Pls pardon the dupe.
Where's my ruler. Oh, there it is. OK, put out your hands. This will probably have more meaning to anyone who went through Catholic school. :-0
Quoting 330. pureet1948:



Oh, I'm just going by what NASA scientists say about the effects of solar flares on things like computers, power grids, iPads, you know, the things we depend on for everyday life. It ain't good news.


No you're not. You're over-hyping a pretty much normal occurrence. Anything X class or stronger requires some concern, but these flares aren't X class. There might be some pretty auroras and some ham radio effects, and that's about it.
No thanks to the Sauna Sar2401...



GEOMAGNETIC STORM--UPDATE: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight. Aurora alerts: text, voice

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE, RADIO BLACKOUT: Sunspot AR2371 has erupted again, producing a strong M6.5 class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash on June 22nd at 18:23 UT:



X-ray and UV radiation from the flare ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, producing a moderately-strong blackout of shortwave and low-frequency radio signals over North America. The North American blackout is subsiding now. An even deeper radio blackout is still underway around both of Earth's poles. This is due to solar protons and electrons being funneled into the polar regions by Earth's magnetic field. A blackout map from NOAA shows the geographical distribution of the radio disturbances
Quoting 287. Patrap:



CME Update: Updated coronagraph imagery by LASCO C2 reveals a full halo, Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun following the double M-Flare event.

This could be good news for sky watchers by the beginning of the new week as geomagnetic storming will be quite possible.

More updates to follow.

solarham.net





Quoting 340. Xyrus2000:



No you're not. You're over-hyping a pretty much normal occurrence. Anything X class or stronger requires some concern, but these flares aren't X class. There might be some pretty auroras and some ham radio effects, and that's about it.


And of course it doesn't get dark where I am - so I won't be able to see the Aurora's...
Quoting 338. TroutMadness:


lol - Actually, it is still very warm here tonite 69.8 right now
Yeah, nice for Michigan. How did you do with the storms today? Looks like most of them have been a little further south than first forecast. There were three reported tornadoes in Michigan today, although I think two of the reports are actually the same tornado. Only 12 tornadoes total reported today with at least two dupes, so a much better outcome than what it looked like might happen this time last night.
Quoting 334. sar2401:

Yeah, that's fire in my link. I thought you were talking about smoke from the Big Bear fire as being 200 miles away. The fire near Markleville more like 80 air miles from you. It's 9500 acres and only 10% contained, and it started on June 19. Looks like you'll have to contend with that smoke for a while yet.


Too much confusion with driving to Mom's down south. :) I just hope when I do the next drive in two or three weeks it's not quite so nasty. I'd rather go more direct down the Owen's Valley than have to do the L-shaped dodge to Sac and then I-5 South.

The clouds I snapped yesterday almost looked like they wanted to make their own weather. Here's hoping things get quieted down, and no dry-strikes when our next front comes through in a few days.
Quoting 342. swflurker:



GEOMAGNETIC STORM--UPDATE: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight. Aurora alerts: text, voice

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE, RADIO BLACKOUT: Sunspot AR2371 has erupted again, producing a strong M6.5 class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash on June 22nd at 18:23 UT:



X-ray and UV radiation from the flare ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, producing a moderately-strong blackout of shortwave and low-frequency radio signals over North America. The North American blackout is subsiding now. An even deeper radio blackout is still underway around both of Earth's poles. This is due to solar protons and electrons being funneled into the polar regions by Earth's magnetic field. A blackout map from NOAA shows the geographical distribution of the radio disturbances
The VOLMET weather broadcasts out of Gander, Newfoundland on 10.051 mHZ is a little weaker than normal but still easily copied. Ham band reference stations on 40 and 80 meters are still readable as well, although the noise floor is a little high, probably due to the flare effects. I don't know where the radio blackouts are in North America but I haven't heard (or not heard) any signs of it all day.
Quoting 344. sar2401:

Yeah, nice for Michigan. How did you do with the storms today? Looks like most of them have been a little further south than first forecast. There were three reported tornadoes in Michigan today, although I think two of the reports are actually the same tornado. Only 12 tornadoes total reported today with at least two dupes, so a much better outcome than what it looked like might happen this time last night.

In Northern Michigan it rained this afternoon, nothing special but it is storming right now in southern Michigan
Quoting 345. nonblanche:



Too much confusion with driving to Mom's down south. :) I just hope when I do the next drive in two or three weeks it's not quite so nasty. I'd rather go more direct down the Owen's Valley than have to do the L-shaped dodge to Sac and then I-5 South.

The clouds I snapped yesterday almost looked like they wanted to make their own weather. Here's hoping things get quieted down, and no dry-strikes when our next front comes through in a few days.
Unfortunately, the fire has 89 and 4 closed. I imagine one of them would have been a been your trans-Sierra route. Smoke clouds from big wildfires really do like some huge front coming in. That front does look pretty weak right now but, if it does make it, it also looks dry. Not good for lightning up there.
Well, off to bed, if ur in the Northern US and it's clear take a peak to the north and hopefully you will see the light show



Too much confusion with driving to Mom's down south. :) I just hope when I do the next drive in two or three weeks it's not quite so nasty. I'd rather go more direct down the Owen's Valley than have to do the L-shaped dodge to Sac and then I-5 South.

The clouds I snapped yesterday almost looked like they wanted to make their own weather. Here's hoping things get quieted down, and no dry-strikes when our next front comes through in a few days.
Hope pureet doesn't freak out!
Quoting 346. sar2401:

Link




The VOLMET weather broadcasts out of Gander, Newfoundland on 10.051 mHZ is a little weaker than normal but still easily copied. Ham band reference stations on 40 and 80 meters are still readable as well, although the noise floor is a little high, probably due to the flare effects. I don't know where the radio blackouts are in North America but I haven't heard (or not heard) any signs of it all day.
Check out gfs 00z run at 192 hours. I hope that's not what it looks like.
Good very early morning guys
I've been lurking on here for a bit over the past like 5-10hrs

Though now might be a good time come out from the shadows

Anyway

Atlantic SST are indeed cooler thanks to that big broad atlantic ridge which is screaming those trade winds and also helping to kick up some African SAL

Looking at the current NAO and forecast models

That Atlantic high is expected to weaken and break down some starting late weekend into early next week thus allowing weaker trades and less SAL over the next week or two... or three

Also by this time the MJO should be entering the area

This should should bring about as I stated lower trades and SAL but also bring back up those atlantic/caribbean/GOM SSTs to at the very least normal levels and should allow for slightly more wetter conditions

Now we just have to wait see what happens and see what the upper level conditions would look like at that point

Quoting 341. Dakster:

No thanks to the Sauna Sar2401...


I'm sure you remember these kinds of nights. Just not pleasant. I took Radar Dog for his walk at 11:00, and even he was hot and wanted to come home. The high tomorrow should be between 100 and 102. That's the actual temperature. The heat index will be about 179 degrees...or so. No heat advisory here but, a mile away across the river, there's a heat advisory. I guess I'll just stay on the cool side of the river tomorrow. :-)
Quoting 351. swflurker:

Hope pureet doesn't freak out!

OMG! It's all red right over us!

I'm listening to WWV on 10.000 MHz right now. According to the chart, that frequency should be maxed out at 35+ DB attenuation. It's S9 on my Yaesu 450-D right now. More noise than usual, which is to be expected with these kinds of storms. Certainly no blackout though. I sometimes wonder if the boys at Boulder have access to a shortwave radio at all.
Quoting 350. swflurker:




Too much confusion with driving to Mom's down south. :) I just hope when I do the next drive in two or three weeks it's not quite so nasty. I'd rather go more direct down the Owen's Valley than have to do the L-shaped dodge to Sac and then I-5 South.

The clouds I snapped yesterday almost looked like they wanted to make their own weather. Here's hoping things get quieted down, and no dry-strikes when our next front comes through in a few days.

I don't think your post made it through.
Quoting 352. pureet1948:

Check out gfs 00z run at 192 hours. I hope that's not what it looks like.
You mean that little red spot offshore? It's parked next to a 1020 mb high. Not the best environment for intensification.
Quoting 347. TroutMadness:


In Northern Michigan it rained this afternoon, nothing special but it is storming right now in southern Michigan
Looks like quite a vigorous line about to hit Detroit. I suppose that's the source of your light show. Some good storms over Lake Erie too. No radar returns over MN, WI, or IA at this hour, so I guess that severe weather threat has ended for them.
359. vis0
CREDIT:: (NOAA) UNYSIS
D&T:: on aniGIF
SUBJECT:: GOES-e Eir
NOTE:: apology to UNYSIS but i prefer to see high moisture areas, TO ME their lower activity colour key yellows are of a grey yellow and that blends in too much to the green so i changed hues popped colours.
image host


...careful Europe(~Portugal) ex BILL is a blob on water but a TS on land, ...uh...TOPICAL Storm (no R)
WHICH REMINDS ME...Its 3am sar2401 its time for the LANACANE  nighttime siesta        ARRIBA ARRIBBA
Heat wave kills 400 in Pakistan’s Karachi, but rain expected
A devastating heat wave has killed more than 400 people in Pakistan’s southern city of Karachi over the past three days, health officials said on Tuesday, as paramilitaries set up emergency medical camps in the streets.

The heat wave, which coincides with major power cuts, has led to harsh criticism of the provincial government’s crumbling public health system and K-electric, the private company that supplies electricity to Karachi, the richest city in Pakistan and home to 20 million people.

Temperatures have touched 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit) in the steamy port city in recent days, up from a normal summer temperature of 37 C (99 F). But meteorological authorities say rain is due.


Link
Saharan dust over the Caribbean Sea

Link
362. vis0
image host...boring (two sum)...but getting closer to becoming ...a n t i c i p a t i o n
363. vis0
big ULL develope & Come to mama...no wait thats washi115,
sorry, come to papa ...no wait that's sar2401...
come to cuscus (now the British are upset ya gotz some funny meanings to English werds ; -P)

as i'm sure sar2401 knows (no?!) as long as the majeekal-device is busy (has a LOW/FRONT near-by and is stronger* than the next near-by LOW/front) that ULL near Bahamas will continue to head in its "natural" direction. Lets say thats towards being off the coast of Alabama. Once or every time the action near the majeekal-device clears now that ULL will be heading more towards zip 10016 NOT directly but towards an oblate area a few hundred miles around zip 10016. Notice again 4 of last 5.5 yrs) how once an ULL breaks past that majeekal-device's AOinfluence it begins to build down from above and up from below (below being the song that a complex planet in this case, Earth's MAGmasphere plays...it ain't tralalalalaLa...sit down Labonbon i wasn't calling you)

For those wondering when the next "2wkAnom" begins, its ~a month away.
For those wondering what the "*" means or what the heck is a "2wkAnom", sorry but ya must've been asleep during my classes ...of 4-10 yrs. on WxU

stay tuned for serious cap breaking by tuning to NOAA radio, stay away from large or any glass in big buildings as some think o\h i'll be protected as 'm in a big building as i watch these swirling winds pass by...uh bricks/cement may & should hold, but glass breaks and unlike the Ginsu® knives not only can glass go thru tomatoes and flimsy cans but through skin...and more.
watchout for severe weather today for the northeast
366. MahFL
Finally had a decent rain here in Orange Park, we got 0.9in, rain started at 23:45 EDT.
Good Morning folks..

More ensembles on board for Texas..06z is still running so this may all change and be dropped..



no.rain.but.nice...e.cen.fl
00z UKMET..

759

WTNT80 EGRR 230418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.06.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.1N 77.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.06.2015 33.1N 77.3W WEAK

00UTC 29.06.2015 35.8N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 230418
370. vis0

Quoting 354. sar2401:

I'm sure you remember these kinds of nights. Just not pleasant. I took Radar Dog for his walk at 11:00, and even he was hot and wanted to come home. The high tomorrow should be between 100 and 102. That's the actual temperature. The heat index will be about 179 degrees...or so. No heat advisory here but, a mile away across the river, there's a heat advisory. I guess I'll just stay on the cool side of the river tomorrow. :-)
man!, when ya go fishing in that cooler side at least by the time the fish are on the line & out they're steam cooked...don't forgot to wear yer ove® gloves when unhooking & "sweat" some veggies on a line over da river mmm sweaty veggies.

As for Λ^RADAR can't yer skills create a 100BTU collar AC for Λ^RADAR?...pipe the AC exhaust / heat out a tube leading out along the tail.

i can hear Λ^RADAR thanking me already... ||"BARFR wooh wooj rarrrrrr.." ||canine◄|►en|| hello ASPCA i want to report a-bus e...|| (google not translating canine too well)
massive.storm.s.indian.ocean..50-60ft.seas!
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
421 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT
/5 PM CDT/ TODAY...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115- 118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-232200-
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0002.150623T1500Z-150623T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-NORTH WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-B EN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFO RD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...CO WARTS...WEBB...
COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON...
BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...
GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...
LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...
PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QU INCY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...
MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST . MARKS...
PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON. ..LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTE R...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAK ELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE... ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...T HOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
421 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 95 TO 99 DEGREES.

* MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX...GENERALLY BETWEEN 107 AND 112 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CREATE HEAT ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES CREATES HEAT INDICES OF 109 UP
TO 112 DEGREES. HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN CREATE DANGEROUSLY HOT
CONDITIONS WHERE INDIVIDUALS MAY BECOME CRITICALLY EXHAUSTED IF
OUTDOORS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONING IF
POSSIBLE... REMAIN OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS WHO MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. ANYONE
OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION.
HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

&&

$$
Quoting 371. islander101010:

massive.storm.s.indian.ocean..50-60ft.seas!

Time to book a ticket to Desert point.


or Bocas Del Toro.
Well Michael Lowry said to watch for approaching cold fronts, since their tail ends can spin up low pressure areas. GFS maybe potentially signaling just that.However just a little far out. Something to watch for in the long term.
Might want to watch out for this one too. At this point , it only looks like a broad area of lower pressure, with increased moisture in the western Caribbean sea. However, still way down the timeline.
Oye!

Woke up this morning and one of my two AC units is choking on SAL I think. Blowing nice warm air in front half of house. Looks like I will be staying home to wait for a repairman.
Can someone please wash their car along with me in Orlando so we get a soaking rain today???

Please?

Thanks
Many models on the BOM ENSO update are now near 2.4C. This would surpass the 1997 ENSO event or atleast come very close to the 1997 El-Nino.

Good Morning. All clear in the E-Pac and tropical Atlantic at the moment:




Quoting 361. ColoradoBob1:

Saharan dust over the Caribbean Sea

Link


Local TV Met says Saharan dust giving us pretty sunsets/sunrises here in the DFW Metroplex. I saw the haze from my 11th floor perch in Fort Worth and wondered what is was. Sometimes its smoke from Fires burning in the Yucatan, but that has a smoky smell to it. Sometimes is just dust from West Texas.
And the big picture across the Central Atlantic:



Going to be a very stormy afternoon across interior FL could totals as much as 3" today. Also a risk for some storms becoming severe today across FL.

And finally, the short-term outlook for Conus today:



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 23 2015 - 12Z Thu Jun 25 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to
Southern New England...

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Northern High Plains and parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into
the Western Ohio Valley...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes roughly southwestward to the
Central Plains will move eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by
late Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the boundary from the Northeast/Lower Great Lakes to parts of the
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians that will move eastward off the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by early Wednesday morning. In addition,
deep moisture and weak upper-level energy will aid in producing showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast into the Southern
Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a developing wave of low pressure over the Central High Plains
will move into the Central Plains by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Central Plains that will move into Upper
Midwest by Wednesday evening. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Southern Rockies on Tuesday/Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
Those in DC/Baltimore are in for quite the cold snap early next week!

40' & 50's for highs! Not lows folks. This is the real deal so pull out the heavy jackets as you will need them from Tennessee up to Maine.



Look at these anomalies. If this occurs this would likely break many records.

This SOI drop means serious business as you just don't get -50's on the daily as we will starting in 2 to 3 days and not expect a major trough in the East and a major ridge out west. This SOI coming is the most furious since the Summer of 1997. We had some -80's in December 2009 but when comparing the Summer SOI this is the most negative "Summer" values coming since 1997
Major pattern shift for FL much wetter and storms favoring eastern FL starting this weekend. So East coast residents needing rain it appears Mother Nature has answered your call.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NRN LAKE AND INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEESBURG AIRPORT RECEIVED .46 INCHES OF RAIN.
FAVORABLE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LVL
VORTICITY ANALYZED IN THE 00Z NAM/GFS MODELS AIDED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...00Z NAM/GFS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN LIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PWATS FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SRN LATE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF DRIER AIR WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.43 INCHES AT THE
CAPE AT 00Z LAST EVENING SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD OFFSHORE FROM THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE. WILL FCST 40-50 POPS FOR
THE INTERIOR...30-40 PCT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY FROM
BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. SPC
HAS ALSO OUTLOOKED THE INTERIOR WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF A WET MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S S CSTL TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS FOR NRN INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST IN
THE EVENING WITH GFS INDICATING VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON AREAS WHERE LINGERING STABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.

THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.

STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.

THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.

FRI-MON...
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE NRN JET AS IT SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE ERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A HI AMP
MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE IN THE PROCESS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS RESPOND
BY DVLPG A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THAT
WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S ON FRI...THEN TO THE
SW ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHER DIURNAL POPS OVER THE E FL COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY AOB
50PCT WITH TEMPS RETURNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...MAXES U80SL90S
AND MINS L/M70S.
Latest CFSv2 is getting more tightly packed with a peak near 3C.

Quoting 374. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Well Michael Lowry said to watch for approaching cold fronts, since their tail ends can spin up low pressure areas. GFS maybe potentially signaling just that.However just a little far out. Something to watch for in the long term.
Might want to watch out for this one too. At this point , it only looks like a broad area of lower pressure, with increased moisture in the western Caribbean sea. However, still way down the timeline.
Yea, and the 00z showed this. We are gonna have to watch closely.
This El-Nino appears its on its way now from Moderate to Strong Status. This most certainly is looking more and more like a Strong El-Nino is becoming a established.

With this signature expect a cooler than average rest of the Summer for the NE & Great Lakes regions, Hotter than average for the Pacific NW. Temps remain above average across FL sorry fellow Floridians should see a wetter pattern though going forward so that's a plus.


Here are the annual averaged 30-year sliding base periods updated every 5 years for ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, HADISST1, & IOCADSv.25 since 1856-1885 & the NINO 3.4 monthly temperatures from these datasets w/ OISSTv2 (Nov 1981-present) and the TAO Buoys (August 1991-Present) included. The pre 1876 era has been purposely dampened in ERSSTv3b, ERSSTv4, & HADISST due to exceptionally large uncertainties stemming from poor spatial coverage of observations.




Quoting 378. DFWdad:



Local TV Met says Saharan dust giving us pretty sunsets/sunrises here in the DFW Metroplex. I saw the haze from my 11th floor perch in Fort Worth and wondered what is was. Sometimes its smoke from Fires burning in the Yucatan, but that has a smoky smell to it. Sometimes its just dust from West Texas.


Cops tried to catch me riding Dirty on Rock Springs RD. Had to drive down a small side street to avoid the 50. No ticket here!

Quoting 384. StormTrackerScott:

Major pattern shift for FL much wetter and storms favoring eastern FL starting this weekend. So East coast residents needing rain it appears Mother Nature has answered your call.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW.
I dunno, Scott. With the expected dry air entrainment and all, that discussion doesn't seem very bullish on East Coast precipitation. There may be some storms, sure, and that'll be welcome. But "Major pattern shift for FL much wetter"? I'm not seeing it...
JB has some stiff competition as of late.

: P
I wunder if this was close to Dr. Masters home?


Tornado Warning issued in Ann Arbor area


UPDATE 2:55 a.m.: Homes damaged by likely tornado near Manchester

UPDATE 2:11 a.m.:: The Tornado Warning has been canceled for Washtenaw County.

UPDATE 2:00 a.m.: National Weather Service meteorologist Rachel Kulik said the service will not be able to make a confirmation on whether a tornado touched down until Tuesday morning when a storm survey will be performed.

According to the NWS, "We have no ground truth [spotter] confirmation of a tornado on the ground." Doppler radar did indicate rotation consistent with tornados in the region between 1:45 a.m. and 2 a.m.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Warning for southern Washtenaw County. The warning will remain in effect until 2:15 a.m.

The warning was issued because there was radar indicated rotation coming from a storm near Freedom and Bridgewater Townships.

The storm is expected to be in Saline at about 1:45 a.m., Ann Arbor and Milan at about 1:50 a.m. and Ypsilanti at about 1:55 a.m.

Everyone in the region is recommended to seek shelter in an interior room on the ground floor or basement of their current locations.

This post will be updated as more information is available.

Quoting 384. StormTrackerScott:

Major pattern shift for FL much wetter and storms favoring eastern FL starting this weekend. So East coast residents needing rain it appears Mother Nature has answered your call.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
(snip)
FRI-MON...
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE NRN JET AS IT SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE ERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A HI AMP
MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE IN THE PROCESS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS RESPOND
BY DVLPG A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THAT
WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S ON FRI...THEN TO THE
SW ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHER DIURNAL POPS OVER THE E FL COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY AOB
50PCT WITH TEMPS RETURNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...MAXES U80SL90S
AND MINS L/M70S.


Scott, this is from NWS-Miami, indicating the pattern change is temporary?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.AVIATION...

FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH MAY AFFECT PBI THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS AT PBI THIS AM.
OTHERWISE, SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. APF AGAIN MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR BRIEF CONDS
LATE AFTERNOON, AS CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY UNDER EAST TO SOUTH EAST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE AT
500MB, CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN, AND EVEN SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.

LOOKING AT MORE LOCAL PARAMETERS, PWATS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2 INCHES IN GENERAL, ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS INDICATE THE
500MB TEMP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE BETWEEN -7C AND -8C. 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6C/KM. THE NCAPE IS AROUND .2,
INDICATING STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO PERSIST
FOR A WHILE. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE
ON THE COOL SIDE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE MODEL
SOUNDING HAS THE FREEZING LEVEL AT 00Z LAST NIGHT AT AROUND 15200
FT, WHERE THE ACTUAL SOUNDING HAS IT 15800 FT. WHILE NOT A HUGE
DIFFERENCE, APPLYING THE BIAS TO THIS AFTERNOON WOULD PUT THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABOUT 15300FT, WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH. SO, WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL LOOKS TO BE A MINIMAL
THREAT, GIVEN THE TEMPS ALOFT AND THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME PEA
SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED YESTERDAY, SO IT MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SMALL IN SIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TODAY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS
WELL. LOOKING AT ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL USING THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
IN BUFKIT, THE MBE VECTORS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS, AND IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING
THIS AFTERNOON. SO, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME URBAN STREET
FLOODING, MAINLY THE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, WITH THE SAME
GENERAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOES DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN
THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL. THE FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST, ESPECIALLY
THE PALM BEACH AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY.
THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME BETTER SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION AS WELL.


BY TUESDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING THE EAST
FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA, PUTTING US BACK INTO THE SAME TYPE OF
PATTERN FOR CONVECTION AS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN.
Quoting 391. Neapolitan:

I dunno, Scott. With the expected dry air entrainment and all, that discussion doesn't seem very bullish on East Coast precipitation. There may be some storms, sure, and that'll be welcome. But "Major pattern shift for FL much wetter"? I'm not seeing it...


The weather channel was showing a major pattern shift last night. The Jet Stream is going to make a big dip down into the SE and here in NW Florida we have a 60% chance of rain or better 5 out of the next 10 days. It hasn't rained at my house the entire month of June so far so any rain/change will be welcomed, bring on the cooler weather and rain. 93 for a high today and 83 for a forecast high this Sunday with good chances of rain, change is coming!
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:

This El-Nino appears its on its way now from Moderate to Strong Status. This most certainly is looking more and more like a Strong El-Nino is becoming a established.

With this signature expect a cooler than average rest of the Summer for the NE & Great Lakes regions, Hotter than average for the Pacific NW. Temps remain above average across FL sorry fellow Floridians should see a wetter pattern though going forward so that's a plus.





Has El Niño officially been declared as moderate?


severe weather for the northeast from new york city to boston went up!


Pakistan Heat Wave Kills Over 400 People In Karachi, But Rain Expected
Reuters | By Syed Raza Hassan


KARACHI, June 23 (Reuters) - A devastating heat wave has killed more than 400 people in Pakistan's southern city of Karachi over the past three days, health officials said on Tuesday, as paramilitaries set up emergency medical camps in the streets.

The heat wave, which coincides with major power cuts, has led to harsh criticism of the provincial government's crumbling public health system and K-electric, the private company that supplies electricity to Karachi, the richest city in Pakistan and home to 20 million people.

Temperatures have touched 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit) in the steamy port city in recent days, up from a normal summer temperature of 37 C (99 F). But meteorological authorities say rain is due.

"We are anticipating a sea breeze will set in some time tonight. The temperature will come down as the monsoon rain enters the Sindh coast, bringing rain to the city," said Ghulam Rasool, director general of the Meteorological Department.

A morgue run by the charity Edhi Foundation has received more than 400 people who died due to complications from the heat in the past three days, official Anwar Kazmi told Reuters.

Further deaths were reported in the rest of the province but a full tally was not available.

"Our morgue is working close to its capacity. We are advising people not to delay burials and try to bury their dead as early as possible in this heat," Kazmi said.

One of Karachi's biggest public hospitals said more than 200 patients had died there of dehydration or heat exhaustion.

"Some were brought in dead while others died during treatment," Dr Seemin Jamali, joint director at Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Center, told Reuters. "We are still receiving a never-ending flow of patients."

The paramilitary Rangers force has set up medical camps at several points in the city where they are providing water and anti-dehydration salts.

The provincial government is being increasingly criticized by opposition parties for not managing the crisis, which has been exacerbated by severe power cuts.

One lawmaker suggested that the parliament should turn off its air-conditioning for an hour to show solidarity with the people.

The electricity grid has been overwhelmed as people switch on fans and air conditioners, and as families all begin to cook at the same time. The holy month of Ramadan, when most Muslims fast during daylight hours, began on Friday. It is tradition for families to break their fast together. (Writing by Katharine Houreld; Editing by Nick Macfie)

Quoting 370. vis0:


As for Λ^RADAR can't yer skills create a 100BTU collar AC for Λ^RADAR?...pipe the AC exhaust / heat out a tube leading out along the tail.


Now that is hilarious lol - trying to picture this in my mind
severe thunderstorm watch is up!!
Has El Niño officially been declared as moderate?




that would be no!
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Statement as of 10:10 AM EDT on June 23, 2015

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Connecticut
Massachusetts
southern Maine
southern New Hampshire
northern New Jersey
southeastern New York
Rhode Island
southern Vermont
coastal waters

* effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1010 am until
400 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

Summary... strong to severe storms are forecast to gradually increase
over the next several hours across the northeast/southern New
England area... posing risk for damaging winds and hail through this
afternoon.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of
Concord New Hampshire to 25 miles south southeast of Bridgeport
Connecticut. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.


Other watch information... continue... ww 340...

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots.
A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27040.
Here is the day to day link for the current jet stream location over Conus per GFS; no dip yet but worth checking every day to get a picture of when/where the dip would start to originate (usually in the Pacific Northwest region before it dips down across Conus):

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_pac_init_00. gif



Heatwave kills at least 500 in Pakistan's Karachi but rain expected soon

Electricity shortages have crippled the water supply system in Karachi, hampering the pumping of millions of gallons of water to consumers, the state-run water utility said.

Pakistan's meteorological office said temperatures remained around 44.5 Celsius in Karachi on Tuesday but forecast thunderstorms for the evening.


Link
Quoting 386. Climate175:

Yea, and the 00z showed this. We are gonna have to watch closely.

Yea. This just may not be Texas year. Msy ruin some 4th of July plans.
Quoting 410. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yea. This just may not be Texas year. Msy ruin some 4th of July plans.
And the 0600z doesn't show the low at all. Does show the continuing expansion of our massive ridge though. July 4 looks nice, as long as you like hot weather.

Quoting 402. hurricanes2018:

severe thunderstorm watch is up!!


That's a pretty wide swath of area covered by that watch. And finally I'm involved! :D

Nothing within a 100mi radius of me just yet.
Quoting 397. Bucsboltsfan:



Has El Niño officially been declared as moderate?
Only in Orlando.
Quoting 396. 69Viking:



The weather channel was showing a major pattern shift last night. The Jet Stream is going to make a big dip down into the SE and here in NW Florida we have a 60% chance of rain or better 5 out of the next 10 days. It hasn't rained at my house the entire month of June so far so any rain/change will be welcomed, bring on the cooler weather and rain. 93 for a high today and 83 for a forecast high this Sunday with good chances of rain, change is coming!
Already 93 here with a dewpoint of 78. The predicted high for Sunday is 86. That will be very pleasant. Unfortunately, the forecast for Monday is back up to 92. The best rain chances I get is 50% for the weekend, then it's back down to 20% on Monday. So far, the pattern shift looks a little less than major.
hmmmmmmmmmm



Here Comes the Wave. But will it make it to the southeast coast of Florida and provide the much needed rain that we have not had so far this season? What do you guys think.
another model trending lower................

and yet another...............

ok....whew....at least the worst performing of the models hasn't let us down......yet....


Quoting 354. sar2401:

I'm sure you remember these kinds of nights. Just not pleasant. I took Radar Dog for his walk at 11:00, and even he was hot and wanted to come home. The high tomorrow should be between 100 and 102. That's the actual temperature. The heat index will be about 179 degrees...or so. No heat advisory here but, a mile away across the river, there's a heat advisory. I guess I'll just stay on the cool side of the river tomorrow. :-)


My dogs do this in typical DC heat. Thunder (the bigger male 120lb overweight 20lb ) in particular pulls towards the house and doesn't want to walk at all as soon as he takes his first few breaths (pants) of this soup. He also doesn't like rain and if it even looks like rain he will do the same thing. Sister Noodle (the smaller female.. 95lb)
isn't as much bothered by heat. They do like to swim.

Son works for a tree service. Fourtunately they aren't working today because we are looking at 95-100F with heat index between 105 and 110.


Quoting 414. sar2401:

Already 93 here with a dewpoint of 78. The predicted high for Sunday is 86. That will be very pleasant. Unfortunately, the forecast for Monday is back up to 92. The best rain chances I get is 50% for the weekend, then it's back down to 20% on Monday. So far, the pattern shift looks a little less than major.


Well if one can trust a TWC forecast we have a 60% chance of rain Thursday, Friday this week and Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. I just hope we get some rain no a couple of those days.
And here's the discussion form Birmingham. Notice the lack of words like "major, "pattern", or "shift". :-)

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (THU/FRI) WILL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH FURTHER BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGING
AS A SURFACE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCH BACK DOWN CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL READINGS. ON SATURDAY...
MODELS ATTEMPT TO PUSH THIS SURFACE FRONT THROUGH PART/MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRI/SAT AHEAD OF
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT COOLER READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES. HOW MUCH SO DEPENDS ON THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AT
SOME POINT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DECENT RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THAT SHOULD SET UP GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO HELP USHER THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT
DOES STALL. IN THE FAR EXTENDED ON MON/TUE AN UPPER EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AS WELL AS THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...ONLY LOW
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE FORECAST.
Quoting 157. Xandra:

From the Big Story:

Top doctors' prescription for feverish planet: Cut out coal


FILE- In this April 3, 2014, file photo, giant machines dig for brown coal at the open-cast mining Garzweiler near the city of Grevenbroich, western Germany. A global health commission organized by the prestigious British medical journal Lancet recommended in a report published Monday, June 22, 2015, substituting cleaner energy worldwide for coal will reduce air pollution and give Earth a better chance at avoiding dangerous climate change. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Some top international doctors and public health experts have issued an urgent prescription for a feverish planet Earth: Get off coal as soon as possible.

Substituting cleaner energy worldwide for coal will reduce air pollution and give Earth a better chance at avoiding dangerous climate change, recommended a global health commission organized by the prestigious British medical journal Lancet. The panel said hundreds of thousands of lives each year are at stake and global warming "threatens to undermine the last half century of gains in development and global health."

It's like a cigarette smoker with lung problems: Doctors can treat the disease, but the first thing that has to be done is to get the patient to stop smoking, or in this case get off coal in the next five years, commission officials said in interviews.

"The prescription for patient Earth is that we've got a limited amount of time to fix things," said commission co-chairman Dr. Anthony Costello, a pediatrician and director of the Global Health Institute at the University College of London. "We've got a real challenge particularly with carbon pollution."

He called it a "medical emergency" that could eventually dwarf the deadly toll of HIV in the 1980s. He and others said burning coal does more than warm the Earth, but causes even more deaths from other types of air pollution that hurt people's breathing and hearts.

Read more >>

-----

Online:

The Lancet: http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/climate-chang e

LIVE NOW: Health experts discuss @TheLancet Commission on Health and Climate's new report.

Almost..... Almost.....

THERE IS A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON FROM FRONTAL
OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT MAY COALESCE INTO A SQUALL LINE.
DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY FROM 18Z TO 03Z THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF WV
AND WESTERN MD ACROSS TO BALTIMORE AND D.C...AND UP THE URBAN
CORRIDOR TO NYC. NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS PERIOD FROM THE EASTERN LAKES ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESSING FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS--MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NY STATE
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES...1.5-2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN...WILL ARRIVE...OCCUPYING THE
SAME NARROW ZONE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RAPID STORM MOTION...WITH
MEAN 0-6KM WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. STILL...A WINDOW OF A FEW
HOURS OF MODERATE SYNOPTIC LIFT MAY ENCOURAGE BRIEF LOCAL TRAINING
AND CELL MERGERS TO BOOST RAIN TOTALS...AND THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES
EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN AN HOUR...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS. THIS COULD YIELD FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO NYC WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS RELATIVELY LOW.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT
/5 PM CDT/ TODAY...

GAZ127>131-146>148-159>161-231600-
/O.CAN.KTAE.HT.Y.0002.150623T1500Z-150623T2200Z/
WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-BROOKS-
LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...
FITZGERALD...OCILLA...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...N ASHVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE
HEAT ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 422. sar2401:

And here's the discussion form Birmingham. Notice the lack of words like "major, "pattern", or "shift". :-)

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (THU/FRI) WILL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH FURTHER BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGING
AS A SURFACE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCH BACK DOWN CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL READINGS. ON SATURDAY...
MODELS ATTEMPT TO PUSH THIS SURFACE FRONT THROUGH PART/MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRI/SAT AHEAD OF
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT COOLER READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES. HOW MUCH SO DEPENDS ON THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AT
SOME POINT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DECENT RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THAT SHOULD SET UP GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO HELP USHER THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT
DOES STALL. IN THE FAR EXTENDED ON MON/TUE AN UPPER EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AS WELL AS THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...ONLY LOW
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE FORECAST.


If that front stalls out in Southern Alabama like they are thinking NW Florida should see some much need rain, bring it please!
The 00z and 06z Navgem are showing some potential setup in the BOC..

00z run had the moisture moving towards the east while the 06z has the moisture moving north towards Texas..

Quoting 421. 69Viking:



Well if one can trust a TWC forecast we have a 60% chance of rain Thursday, Friday this week and Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. I just hope we get some rain no a couple of those days.
I wouldn't trust a TWC forecast as far as I could throw it. The actual NWS forecast for Panama City shows a 40% chance for Saturday and a 50% chance for Sunday. Even those chances depend on how strong the front becomes and how far south it makes it. I think the best we can hope for is a "not as hot front" and some showers for the weekend. I hope we can get some more general rain but betting on a front down here at the end of June to provide it generally doesn't work out too well. Now, a nice little TD would be really nice. :-)

Ha! Last post again...
Quoting 419. ricderr:

ok....whew....at least the worst performing of the models hasn't let us down......yet....





Umm no

Dr Masters,
I think it is worth noting that winds from Tropical Depression Bill did serious damage to a marina on Lake Lewisville in Texas.

I live in Lewisville, right next to Lake Lewisville, in Denton County. The center of Tropical Depression Bill passed directly over me. During the first half of the storm, including the northern "eye wall", there was absolutely no wind at all. When the southern "eye wall" came over us, the winds really kicked up. I would estimate than to have been 45 MPH. Several reporting stations in North Texas reported gusts to 50 MPH. These winds remained strong for several hours. During this time, a floating marina on Lake Lewisville was severely damaged by strong winds. I believe that the winds gusted well over 50 MPH in order to have caused this damage. Here is a link to the news report: Link
The NWS reported a pressure drop of a few MB's at this time. This fact, along with the observed winds and reported damage, tells me that Tropical Depression Bill did in fact gain strength as it passed over Denton County.

Also, it is interesting that the area of heaviest rains occurred on the NW side of the storm, instead of the NE.
The water from these heavy rains ran down Denton Creek, into Grapevine Lake, and flooded FM 2499, a six-lane arterial heavily used by commuters, causing a traffic nightmare. It is currently still flooded.