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Tropical Depression Bill Still Posing Major Flood Risk

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2015

Although it was downgraded to tropical-depression status by the National Hurricane Center at 1:00 am Wednesday, the system known as Bill remains a serious threat for flood-producing rain over a belt extending through central Texas across eastern Oklahoma and into the Midwest. NHC issued its final advisory on Bill at 4:00 am CDT, when the center of circulation was located about 45 miles south of Waco, TX. Top winds were at 35 mph, and Bill was moving north at 13 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb. National Weather Service radar showed the center of Bill approaching the Dallas-Fort Worth area at 10:00 am CDT, with a large shield of moderate to occasionally heavy rain north of its center. Responsibility for monitoring TD Bill has been handed from NHC to the NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, which is monitoring Bill’s rainfall and the resulting flood threat.


Figure 1. Radar display from WU’s Storm app at 10:05 am CDT Wednesday, June 17.

A persistent inflow band extended from Bill’s center to the Texas coast, with large rainfall totals accumulating between Corpus Christi and Houston (see Figure 2). NOAA/WPC warned on Wednesday morning that storm totals of a foot of rain could occur beneath the band extending south from Bill to the coastline. This morning, one rain gauge near El Campo, TX, maintained by the Lower Colorado River Authority reported 11.40” over the past 24 hours. “These rainfall amounts would produce flash flooding in an average year...but flash flooding during this event may be very widespread and particularly dangerous given the super-saturated soils in parts of Texas,” noted WPC in a 9:23 am CDT advisory.


Figure 2. 24-hour rainfall estimates from 7:00 am CDT Tuesday, June 16, through Wednesday, June 17, derived from raingauges and radar data and supplemented by satellite information. Image source: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Tonight: Red River under the gun
As Bill continues sliding northward, it’s expected to maintain its identity as a coherent low-pressure center for at least the next day or so. Some models continue to suggest that Bill could even restrengthen slightly tonight over southeast Oklahoma, a possibility raised in recent studies of the “brown ocean effect.” As discussed in our post on Monday, there’s an increasing amount of research on the process by which a tropical cyclone can re-intensify well inland if soils are sufficiently moist. Both Texas and Oklahoma saw the wettest month in their weather histories during May, and soils remain saturated across much of the area. Since the brown-ocean reintensification effect is a rare beast, we might not expect forecast models to latch onto it. The 1200 GMT Wednesday run of the high-resolution HRRR short-range model suggested a slight deepening of Bill’s central pressure late this evening near the Texas-Oklahoma border, while the longer-range NAM model from 1200 GMT Wednesday indicates that Bill will at least maintain its current level of organization into Thursday, when the system is predicted to slow to a crawl over southeast Oklahoma. Eventually, Bill will be get pulled into an existing frontal boundary and should begin to lose its definition near southern Missouri by Saturday.


Figure 3. Projected three-day precipitation totals from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, for the period from 1200 GMT June 17 to June 20, show the expected track of Bill around the high-pressure center in the southeast U.S. Image credit: NWS/WPC.

The NAM model predicts widespread 5” – 10” rainfall amounts from the DFW area across eastern Oklahoma to southwest Missouri from Wednesday through Saturday morning. A large arc of flash flood watches remained in effect on Wednesday morning from the Texas coast to southern Illinois, and Bill’s remnants are likely to produce heavy rain for days to come as they traverse the preexisting frontal boundary. Models indicate a very sharp gradient along the northwest side of the rains associated with Bill, so Oklahoma City and Tulsa may be close to the edge of the heaviest amounts. However, the NWS offices in both cities are warning of a potentially life-threatening flooding event where the rains do fall. Rivers and reservoirs still engorged from Texas and Oklahoma east to Arkansas and Louisiana will not be able to handle much additional rain from Bill, so in addition to flash flooding, mainstem flooding will likely emerge as a major concern toward the weekend, including along the Arkansas and Red Rivers and their major tributaries. Major flooding was already being reported on Wednesday morning along several rivers in the region monitored by the NWS’s Arkansas–Red Basin River Forecast Center.


Figure 4. The circulation around Tropical Storm Bill dwarfed that around Hurricane Carlos as of late Tuesday, June 16. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.

Carlos hangs on to tropical storm status
After briefly regaining hurricane strength yesterday, Carlos weakened dramatically overnight as its circulation hugged the northwest coast of Mexico. The small size of Carlos and its location near the coast has given forecasters headaches and led to large variations in intensity. The 10:00 am CDT advisory from NHC gives Carlos only a few more hours of life as a tropical cyclone, with the system projected to become a remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. Satellite loops this morning showed an rapidly disorganizing system. Heavy rains will persist as Carlos and its moisture interact with the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range, which will cause flash flooding and mudslides. On the heels of Hurricane Blanca, which made landfall over Baja California on June 8 a month earlier than any previous landfall on record for the peninsula, Carlos will be the second tropical cyclone of at least tropical-storm strength to make landfall this year on the Pacific coast of Mexico. According to the NOAA Historical Hurricanes website, there have been only two other years since accurate record keeping began in 1951 that the Northeast Pacific has seen two landfalling tropical cyclones so early in the year: 1951 (by June 1) and 1971 (by June 17.)


Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Beware the tail of the Hurricane the next day" is a ol Cane Proverb,

As in comment #1810 here
Carried over from the previous blog, and quite on topic for the current blog post :)

Quoting 304. LAbonbon:

Anyone else reading the some of the flash flood warnings?

"RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS RANGED FROM 3 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE"


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC089-239-481-171715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0097.150617T1520Z-150617T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1017 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS RANGED FROM 3 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE
. FLASH FLOODING IS ON GOING AND WILL CONTINUE.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HIGH WATER ON ROADS WITH SOME IMPASSABLE
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WHARTON COUNTY.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...PIERCE...
BOLING-IAGO...ALTAIR...HUNGERFORD...CORDELE...EGYP T...MORALES...
SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...LOUISE...GARWOOD AND NADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
Looks like another bad weekend ahead for TX/LA/OK. Stay safe, folks.
nice lunch time update

thanks
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON EDT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

FLZ015>019-026>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120> 131-142>148-
155>161-172200-
/O.EXT.KTAE.HT.Y.0001.150617T1600Z-150617T2200Z/
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHE RTY-LEE-
WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-
COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMA S-BROOKS-
LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...
MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST . MARKS...
PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON. ..LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTE R...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAK ELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE... ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...T HOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
1011 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON EDT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...AROUND 100 DEGREES.

* MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX...106 TO 110 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CREATE HEAT ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES CREATES HEAT INDICES OF 108 UP
TO 112 DEGREES. HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN CREATE DANGEROUSLY HOT
CONDITIONS WHERE INDIVIDUALS MAY BECOME CRITICALLY EXHAUSTED IF
OUTDOORS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONING IF
POSSIBLE... REMAIN OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS WHO MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. ANYONE
OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION.
HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

&&

$$
(This is last post of prior blog - hoping someone can confirm or clarify. Regarding the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm.).

My understanding (I live close to the coast - So East USA) is that there are 3 ways we will see a tropical storm develop:
#1 Tropical Wave from West Africa
#2 Home grown - all ingedients (water temp, moist air etc) present
#3 When a low moving across the south (west to east) gets stretched out and the southern portions pull off and develops a storm. (TS/TD would be the originating storm moving across the land and then the tail breaking off)

#2 and #3 most apt early and late season (and may include GOM storms that find their way to our doorstep)
#1 most apt mid season
NASA's Geos-5 shows Bill Deepening over Southeast OK.



May see some interesting landcane structure once the convection dies back.


Keeps depicting this possible bad severe event as the front gets to it. The worst of this moved from IL to Indiana in the 00Z run.


The pool is getting full..

avdudetx's Wundercam in Celina, TX
The persistent "Tail" of Bill was something to watch overnight. Storms kept developing off the coast South of Corpus Christi and moved north over the same areas.
So far we've dodged several flashflood bullets this early summer in DC metro. But sooner or later I'll get the three lemons again and flood. The situation next few days is especially falsely innocuous with weak warm fronts passing through tonight and also sometime friday. Twice in ten years this has led to backbuilding thunderstorms dumping several inches of rain on me in an hour. Synoptic situation next ten days is fairly good (for here!) for MCCs also which
can produce a lot of rain. Remmanants of Bill go through this weekend also.

Meanwhile the rest of June just looks seasonably hot and humid for any one day but for an unseasonable duration.. most of the next two weeks! And after stating we wouldn't get really hot in the past May and June heat spells, it looks like we could be in for a few really hot (upper 90s) days sometime in the next two weeks embedded within the overall almost undending siege of warmth here. Starting to think like June 2010!!!!
This may be worth keeping an eye on after Bill. So much of the population now lives in urban areas, it's sometimes hard for them to grasp the impact of unusual weather on agricultural production and therefore food prices. The effects of erratic weather add up quickly. Just one example highlighted in this report is that wheat ready to be harvested can sprout in wet weather and this causes the wheat to be rejected or discounted at the elevator. This generates a loss to both farmer and food chain. Pre TS Bill, this sprouting/wet weather problem was not as severe as expected but we'll see how the next report reads.
Texas crop, weather for June 16, 2015
Getting more rain today than yesterday... The tale of the tail.....
...TEXAS...
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
SEALY 0.3 WNW 8.09
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW 6.12
PORT LAVACA 0.9 NW 5.56
INEZ 1.8 WNW 4.36
WACO-MADISON COOPER 3.40
KINGSVILLE NAS 2.90
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.51
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 1.76
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.42


Rainfall totals Courtesy of WPC from their 10 am advisory
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM.

ALTHOUGH TD BILL IS NEARING THE FORT WORTH AREA IT IS STILL BEING
FED GULF MOISTURE AND UNFORTUNATELY SETX IS UNDERNEATH THE PATH
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO BILL. A RAIN BAND CAN BE SEEN ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO LIBERTY THEN
CURVING BACK TO THE WSW TOWARD HOUSTON-RICHMOND-EL CAMPO-EDNA. THE
MOISTURE IS MERGING INTO THIS BAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGH NOON EXPECT
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO PILE UP WITH THE EAST TO WEST BAND THEN AS
DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST IMPINGES ON SETX THIS BAND
SHOULD PROBABLY ERODE FROM THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING THE FOCUS TO THE
COAST AND INTO THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOUSTON METRO
AREA IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH
HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS STILL A GOOD BET FOR THE METRO AREA BEFORE
IT SHIFTS OUT.
COASTAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE MORE THAN THAT
BEFORE THIS EVENING COMES TO AN END. WILL BE ADDING THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES BACK INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FOR THE EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING.

Houston NWS 10:15 am Discussion
Quoting 9. Skyepony:

NASA's Geos-5 shows Bill Deepening over Southeast OK.



May see some interesting landcane structure once the convection dies back.


Keeps depicting this possible bad severe event as the front gets to it. The worst of this moved from IL to Indiana in the 00Z run.



Bill is currently at 1002 mb. How would 1008 mb be intensifying?
Southeast high pressure dominating.

12Z GFS maybe picking up on this expected SOI crash. Likely a complete pattern change going to take place the end of June favoring a deep trough in the Eastern US.

It's my birthday. Congrads to me.
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS maybe picking up on this expected SOI crash. Likely a complete pattern change going to take place the end of June favoring a deep trough in the Eastern US.




I would {pant.. gasp!} really appreciate this. So would my dogs and outdoor laboring son.
The CMC at day starting to favor the idea too. Boy this would be welcome relief across the SE US which has been hot a dry on average the last few weeks.

cloudless.skies..e.cen.florida
Quoting 22. pablosyn:

It's my birthday. Congrads to me.
happy b day pab
Quoting 23. georgevandenberghe:



I would {pant.. gasp!} really appreciate this. So would my dogs and outdoor laboring son.



I wouldn't focus on to much in specifics this far out but the general idea with as JB quotes could be a spectacular SOI crash. A SOI drop on the magnitude the models are showing would tend to favor a deep trough across the East. So the first half of July could be fairly stormy across the East and cooler as well.
Quoting 25. islander101010:

cloudless.skies..e.cen.florida


Yeah but its gradually going to change going forward may take some time though to dislodge this ridge across the SE US.
The Illinois River in Central Illinois is already above flood stage as we have had close to 8 inches of rain already this month of June ..

Bill remnants may give is 3-4 more inches before it moves eastward past us .. Rain in forecast for the next 6 days !
Quoting 22. pablosyn:

It's my birthday. Congrads to me.

Feliz Aniversário!

(Hope that's correct - had to rely on Google)
Quoting 7. SC29483:

(This is last post of prior blog - hoping someone can confirm or clarify. Regarding the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm.).

My understanding (I live close to the coast - So East USA) is that there are 3 ways we will see a tropical storm develop:
#1 Tropical Wave from West Africa
#2 Home grown - all ingedients (water temp, moist air etc) present
#3 When a low moving across the south (west to east) gets stretched out and the southern portions pull off and develops a storm. (TS/TD would be the originating storm moving across the land and then the tail breaking off)

#2 and #3 most apt early and late season (and may include GOM storms that find their way to our doorstep)
#1 most apt mid season
I answered the question about the tail in the previous blog. It's not going to turn into another storm.

The first two of your options are the mostly likely for the Gulf coast. I assume that's what you meant. I don't really understand #3 so you'll have to give me an example of that kind of storm. Homegrown storms can happen any time during the season. There are two distinct varieties, one that forms somewhere in the Caribbean and moves north like Bill, and one that forms in the Bay of Campheche and moves east or north. A Cape Verde storm is most common in September or October. It can track through the eastern Caribbean and then north over Cuba into the Gulf, through the western Caribbean and then north, or over Florida and into the Gulf. It's also possible to get a tropical cyclone that forms in the Gulf itself, and it can move north, east, or west, depending on the steering currents.
Quoting 22. pablosyn:

It's my birthday. Congrads to me.
Happy Birthday Kid. Thanks for all the news from Brasil.
You can do it Bill. Please break this ridge!

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago Hudson, NH
New GFS operational run showing strong indications that remants of TS #Bill to kick off a -NAO response @WSI_Energy
Haha that's for sure! It's raining pretty good here in Alvin...has been for a good part of the morning.

Quoting 15. uptxcoast:

Getting more rain today than yesterday... The tale of the tail.....
Quoting 29. whitewabit:

The Illinois River in Central Illinois is already above flood stage as we have had close to 8 inches of rain already this month of June ..

Bill remnants may give is 3-4 more inches before it moves eastward past us .. Rain in forecast for the next 6 days !
same here not quite as much but nice warmth today 26c humidex will not be as high as yesterday but thundering rains at times tomorrow and chances of showers after that off an on till Monday

had 113.7 mm for the month of june here so far looking like no problems with getting near 200mm by end of the month
Trades winds are a little fast.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

You can do it Bill. Please break this ridge!

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago Hudson, NH
New GFS operational run showing strong indications that remants of TS #Bill to kick off a -NAO response @WSI_Energy

12z UKMET











Someone kill me now. It's 102 with a dewpoint of 73. That's a heat index of 109. I just dumped the trash and I'm still sweating like a pig. I did see one cumulus cloud, but it keeled over from sunstroke before it got very far.
Just North of Austin here, and I'd be surprised if Bill broke 1.5", so far. Really, I can think of 4-5 systems that were as strong or stronger than this one, last month. The other thing is that the rain mostly fell East of 35, where it's least needed. I think that Lake Travis has risen a grand total of one inch, since Bill's arrival. Was hoping this system would top off our upland lakes, before we get our Summer drought (Travis still needs a bit over 11ft)... no such luck.

Now, regarding y'all SE types whining about a couple days over 100, get over it. Talk to us Texans after y'all get 90 days over 100, in a Summer. Only after that can you say that you feel our pain... LOL
What is that feature that keep spouting off storms around Corpus right offshore?
Quoting 16. canehater1:

...TEXAS...
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
SEALY 0.3 WNW 8.09
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW 6.12
PORT LAVACA 0.9 NW 5.56
INEZ 1.8 WNW 4.36
WACO-MADISON COOPER 3.40
KINGSVILLE NAS 2.90
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.51
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 1.76
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.42


Rainfall totals Courtesy of WPC from their 10 am advisory

Those totals are through 7 am. I just looked at the 24-hour & 48-hour precip graphic (here), and there are a couple of areas exceeding 14 and 16 inches (Wharton, Jackson and Lavaca counties). This is the same area referred to in the flash flood warning in post #2, where NWS mentioned upwards of 15 inches of rain had fallen, with more on the way.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Someone kill me now. It's 102 with a dewpoint of 73. That's a heat index of 109. I just dumped the trash and I'm still sweating like a pig. I did see one cumulus cloud, but it keeled over from sunstroke before it got very far.


'High' of 55 F, here in south Scotland, today. 'Dewpoint'? What's that? Must be an American thing (like air conditioning). Never hear the term, here.

If air conditioning ever becomes a profitable business in Scotland, it'll be 'game over' for planet Earth.
Quoting 37. Gearsts:




Likely a significant pattern change across the US with this next SOI drop. Have you seen the new Jamstec today that updated for June?
Quoting 36. Gearsts:

Trades winds are a little fast.



Not even a Tropical Wave. Damm! That Sat pic looks like what one would expect in the Winter not mid June and to think some members suspect the MDR might be active come September. LOL!
It's 90 degrees in Fort Pierce and feels like 98.
Just a few clouds passing by.
Lowest NAO values since April coming starting later next week.

Quoting 46. rmbjoe1954:

It's 90 degrees in Fort Pierce and feels like 98.
Just a few clouds passing by.


95 here.

Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Not even a Tropical Wave. Damm!
There is a ghost twave south of PR.
Hello Dr. Masters and everyone, I have been a fan of this blog for years, but my first time to post. We live in on a ranch in Cuero, Texas and our businesses are in Victoria. Not much action yesterday other than heavy wind gusts, so my young boys, husband and I prepared the ranch for the storm and made the decision to allow our team members to go home and do the same. As of 8 am this morning we had 1 inch of rain. Around 9 am however, the storms began and as of 11am CST we now have a total of 10 inches - and it%u2019s still raining. (It took me a while to post due to connectivity issues with the storm, so as of 12:52 CST, we've had over 13 inches of rain. I can no longer track it due to a failed rain gauge.) We have a low water bridge to cross on our 115 acres and this is the 6th time this year that we%u2019ve been flooded in. We%u2019ve owned the land 5 years and have never been flooded in before 2015. This past Sunday we had 5.5 inches of rain as well. My hometown of Victoria is known as the crossroads of Texas and is growing rapidly, with nearly 200,000 people in the surrounding communities. That's where the eye of the storm came through and we are getting the worst of it today. Cuero is 25 miles NW of Victoria. We%u2019ve had our share of storms in the past, Carla and Claudette, to name a couple, and we prepare wisely despite the category of storm.

I do have a question for the experts on this blog. Our El Nino 2015 seems to share the characteristics of the 1997/98 El Nino (I can%u2019t explain why, so please don%u2019t hammer me for this), so do you think that it is because the sea surface temperatures may be positioned further west than a classic El Nino? 2004 was an example of this, with more 15 named storms and 6 major hurricanes. This would allow for a normal hurricane season in the Gulf and Atlantic like that of the 1998 season, which caused the devastating floods in South Texas. I know today, we will likely have historical rainfall amounts, and if you add the 5.5 inches that we received Sunday, the week may be the wettest on record for DeWitt County. Thank you for your expert insights on this website, as they have kept us out for harm's way for years.
Almost 2pm EST in Florida and hardly a blip on the radar anywhere in the state, Sea Breeze thunderstorms are even rare today, talk about drying out and unusual for Florida in the summertime!
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Not even a Tropical Wave. Damm!
lookin bleak

Quoting 20. VAbeachhurricanes:

Southeast high pressure dominating.




That's an understatement, we're getting downright nasty hot dry weather for June, not sure when we'll get a break. Thank god for underground sprinkler systems or my lawn would be toast!
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Someone kill me now. It's 102 with a dewpoint of 73. That's a heat index of 109. I just dumped the trash and I'm still sweating like a pig. I did see one cumulus cloud, but it keeled over from sunstroke before it got very far.


103F, dewpoint 78 or 79F late July 2011 in DC area.

And I had rented a weekend condo at Deep Creek Lake 2500' up and 100 miles west. 10F cooler all weekend for me"

Sometimes I win one!
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS maybe picking up on this expected SOI crash. Likely a complete pattern change going to take place the end of June favoring a deep trough in the Eastern US.




I hope it pans out, we need something to bring us some rain and cooler weather!
56. JRRP
Quoting 37. Gearsts:



ThirdDayRanch - welcome to the blog! Can't speak for the Weather Channel or other news outlets, but I've been watching the rain totals for your area and points east all morning, and have been using Victoria as a my main reference point when looking at graphics. Hope you don't get too much more rain; the totals I've seen are pretty impressive.

I'll leave the El Nino explanation(s) to those more knowledgable than I :-)
Here is the 11:00 AM CIMSS update with former-Bill and the adjacent Tutt cell (upper level) that is probably enhancing the continued convective activity along with the issue of the saturated soils:

Surface:



Upper Level:
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Someone kill me now. It's 102 with a dewpoint of 73. That's a heat index of 109. I just dumped the trash and I'm still sweating like a pig. I did see one cumulus cloud, but it keeled over from sunstroke before it got very far.


Where exactly are you located again?

It's a bummer there's not a way to put your location under your screen name.

Quoting 31. sar2401:

I answered the question about the tail in the previous blog. It's not going to turn into another storm.

The first two of your options are the mostly likely for the Gulf coast. I assume that's what you meant. I don't really understand #3 so you'll have to give me an example of that kind of storm. Homegrown storms can happen any time during the season. There are two distinct varieties, one that forms somewhere in the Caribbean and moves north like Bill, and one that forms in the Bay of Campheche and moves east or north. A Cape Verde storm is most common in September or October. It can track through the eastern Caribbean and then north over Cuba into the Gulf, through the western Caribbean and then north, or over Florida and into the Gulf. It's also possible to get a tropical cyclone that forms in the Gulf itself, and it can move north, east, or west, depending on the steering currents.
I'm surprised the more seasoned hurricane people here have not explained #3.  My experience is cut off low hurricanes are the trickiest to predict.  The models never seem to get them right, I have always listened to experienced meteorologists for heads up on these things.  They are the basis, I think, for many Nor'easters, but during the right time of the year they transition from cold core to warm core storms/hurricanes.
 Most recently, in May 2012, a pair of tropical storms, Albertoand Beryl, both formed off the coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and north Florida.

Beryl washed out the Memorial Day weekend and was the strongest tropical cyclone to make a U.S. landfall before June 1 on record, with 70 mph maximum sustained winds.

In fact, Beryl made the transition from a subtropical to tropical storm prior to landfall, exhibiting an eye and eyewall on radar, according to Ostro.

Five years earlier, a cut-off low-pressure system off the Southeast coast morphed into Subtropical Storm Andrea. Before officially gaining the subtropical designation, the wrapped-up low was responsible for a 2-3 foot storm surge in St. Johns and Flagler Counties in Florida. A surfer and four crew members of a sailing vessel lost their lives in high surf from Andrea.

Quoting 54. georgevandenberghe:



103F, dewpoint 78 or 79F late July 2011 in DC area.

And I had rented a weekend condo at Deep Creek Lake 2500' up and 100 miles west. 10F cooler all weekend for me"

Sometimes I win one!


Actually in the past ten years our monthly and seasonal heat extremes

October 2007, warmest of record
June 2010 warmest of record.
July 2010 tied for warmest of record
Summer 2010 (JJA) Warmest of record.

July 2011, smashed record for warmest ever by 1.4F

March 2012, smashed record for warmest ever.

Spring 2012 Warmest of record.

May 2015, warmest of record.

That's a lot in eight years.

Meanwhile cold records

uuhh... ... .. .. .. .. .. ..

Feb 2015 gets honorable mention. Not coldest ever but coldest in decades!
Quoting 55. 69Viking:



I hope it pans out, we need something to bring us some rain and cooler weather!


I've looked at all the models earlier and they all seem to show one heck of a SOI drop starting June 20th as a result come around the 27th or 28th of June is when the ridge breaks and allows for a deep trough to settle across the EAST. This would be a significant pattern change from where we are currently and could even get quite cool in some locations across the Great lakes region.
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station - 29.65" / 1007.3mb
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport - 29.65" / 1003.3mb.

I think the remnants of Bill have arrived in Fort Worth.
Link
couple puffs tried but there imploding from the heat

Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:



I've looked at all the models earlier and they all seem to show one heck of a SOI drop starting June 20th as a result come around the 27th or 28th of June is when the ridge breaks and allows for a deep trough to settle across the EAST. This would be a significant pattern change from where we are currently and could even get quite cool in some locations across the Great lakes region.


Scott, climatology says June is our wettest month in palm beach county. I can count 1 rain event this month its ridiculous. The heat is mind-numbing too mid-upper 90s. I am really hoping for a pattern shift, maybe a strong MJO come our way
Quoting 54. georgevandenberghe:



103F, dewpoint 78 or 79F late July 2011 in DC area.

And I had rented a weekend condo at Deep Creek Lake 2500' up and 100 miles west. 10F cooler all weekend for me"

Sometimes I win one!
Temperature reached 104 with a dewpoint of 80.I remember this because it was one of the rare times I teleworked from home during the summer because it was to HOT!
Quoting 22. pablosyn:

It's my birthday. Congrads to me.

Parabens!
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:



I've looked at all the models earlier and they all seem to show one heck of a SOI drop starting June 20th as a result come around the 27th or 28th of June is when the ridge breaks and allows for a deep trough to settle across the EAST. This would be a significant pattern change from where we are currently and could even get quite cool in some locations across the Great lakes region.


Lets hope the what the models are depicting that far out holds true, we need a break from the heat and most of all need some rain. After a wet April and early May it's hard to believe how quickly it dried up.
Seems the training bands are set just slightly East of where the forecasts predicted a couple of days ago (not in any way intended to be a criticism) -- not by much, but perhaps a little bit better for the Brazos and Trinity River watersheds than it might have been otherwise; also, however, perhaps more troublesome for the Red, Sabine, Neches and Angelina Rivers. I know the Colorado River folks were hoping for more help (to fill Travis), but, hey, y'all have already come a long way in a short time!

Sam Rayburn Reservoir in Deep East Texas is at its highest since 1990, as it has been serving its flood-protection purposes well so far this year. I hope it has enough capacity to take this last deluge.
Quoting 62. georgevandenberghe:



Actually in the past ten years our monthly and seasonal heat extremes

October 2007, warmest of record
June 2010 warmest of record.
July 2010 tied for warmest of record
Summer 2010 (JJA) Warmest of record.

July 2011, smashed record for warmest ever by 1.4F

March 2012, smashed record for warmest ever.

Spring 2012 Warmest of record.

May 2015, warmest of record.

That's a lot in eight years.

Meanwhile cold records

uuhh... ... .. .. .. .. .. ..

Feb 2015 gets honorable mention. Not coldest ever but coldest in decades!
That's not true we had cold records smashed in January 2014.
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:

Lowest NAO values since April coming starting later next week.



Would allow N. Atlantic sst's to warm.
Quoting 72. tiggerhurricanes2001:

But you don't want the N Atlantic SST to warm even more if you want and active season.
The remants of Bill will bring a nice cool rainfall this weekend.
Quoting 60. 69Viking:



Where exactly are you located again?

It's a bummer there's not a way to put your location under your screen name.
It's in my Profile - Eufaula. Yes, most "modern" sites have a place for location under the avatar. They are planning to implement it here in 2017, at the latest...probably.
I've looked at all the models earlier and they all seem to show one heck of a SOI drop starting June 20th as a result come around the 27th or 28th of June is when the ridge breaks and allows for a deep trough to settle across the EAST. This would be a significant pattern change from where we are currently and could even get quite cool in some locations across the Great lakes region.

i saw eric blake has mentioned that a few days ago on twitter exactly what you're saying...but you and he also said that very same thing two weeks ago......it's more than ridging that is involved here i think.....

looking at the monthly SOI values...the daily value...which is what contributes to the SOI....has been either in the neutral range....oractually La Nina range now for 27 consecutive days....the 30 days SOI....is over 2...that's neutral la nina typically ....and the ninety day SOI is back firmly in neutral values.....unheard of with an el nino in this range......
Quoting 19. sar2401:

Bill is currently at 1002 mb. How would 1008 mb be intensifying?

Actually by the model at this point in time it's not even depicted so much as a closed low.


Overall GEOS-5 tends to under-do marginal tropical systems. Like the gfs & many other models that one circle can be the low for that larger area and not the absolute lowest pressure located inside an area that may even be smaller than the smallest resolution of the model.. Also the intensity of the rainfall as well as structure of the storm improves by this model as it moves through Northeast Texas and Southeast OK.

Based on this model's tendencies & such I wouldn't be surprised by some strengthening in the intensity. There is a front coming into play from across the Rockies. It actually caused more Local Damage Reports than Bill. When these two interact over already wet ground, Bill remains may dish more per hour than it is at the moment.

Quoting 61. leofarnsworth:


I'm surprised the more seasoned hurricane people here have not explained #3.  My experience is cut off low hurricanes are the trickiest to predict.  The models never seem to get them right, I have always listened to experienced meteorologists for heads up on these things.  They are the basis, I think, for many Nor'easters, but during the right time of the year they transition from cold core to warm core storms/hurricanes.
 Most recently, in May 2012, a pair of tropical storms, Albertoand Beryl, both formed off the coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and north Florida.

Beryl washed out the Memorial Day weekend and was the strongest tropical cyclone to make a U.S. landfall before June 1 on record, with 70 mph maximum sustained winds.

In fact, Beryl made the transition from a subtropical to tropical storm prior to landfall, exhibiting an eye and eyewall on radar, according to Ostro.

Five years earlier, a cut-off low-pressure system off the Southeast coast morphed into Subtropical Storm Andrea. Before officially gaining the subtropical designation, the wrapped-up low was responsible for a 2-3 foot storm surge in St. Johns and Flagler Counties in Florida. A surfer and four crew members of a sailing vessel lost their lives in high surf from Andrea.

I wasn't sure if the question was about a cutoff type low in the Atlantic since the rest seemed to be related to the Gulf. People sometimes forget that the Southeast faces out onto two big bodies of water. :-)
(double post)


Scott, climatology says June is our wettest month in palm beach county. I can count 1 rain event this month its ridiculous. The heat is mind-numbing too mid-upper 90s. I am really hoping for a pattern shift, maybe a strong MJO come our way


well......a week an a half ago...people were expecting an MJO pulse in the western pacific that would hopefully do just that....but now the MJO forecast is showing that to be unlikely.......





Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

That's not true we had cold records smashed in January 2014.


All of these I described are monthly or seasonal average records. The list of daily records would be a lot longer, most warm but yes, a few cold. March 2014 produced a remarkable arctic outbreak in the first days of the month; subzero cold in March is very rare in our area. The January 2014 outbreaks were notable in contrast with the milquetoast winters of the past twenty years. February 2015 was worse for departures, severity of outbreaks and duration of cold.. it was truly excptional esp. in the 21'st century.

Quoting 76. ricderr:

I've looked at all the models earlier and they all seem to show one heck of a SOI drop starting June 20th as a result come around the 27th or 28th of June is when the ridge breaks and allows for a deep trough to settle across the EAST. This would be a significant pattern change from where we are currently and could even get quite cool in some locations across the Great lakes region.

i saw eric blake has mentioned that a few days ago on twitter exactly what you're saying...but you and he also said that very same thing two weeks ago......it's more than ridging that is involved here i think.....

looking at the monthly SOI values...the daily value...which is what contributes to the SOI....has been either in the neutral range....oractually La Nina range now for 27 consecutive days....the 30 days SOI....is over 2...that's neutral la nina typically ....and the ninety day SOI is back firmly in neutral values.....unheard of with an el nino in this range......


Yeah but as JB said this morning the drop of this SOI coming looks spectacular and long lasting. The SOI then you have the NAO going to its lowest values since April will most definitely cause a major pattern change across the US as the SE Ridge gets broken down by end of June.
83. JRRP
David Zierden %u200F@FLClimateCenter 23 minHace 23 minutos
New ERSST.v4 made 2014/2015 #ElNino disappear, along with 2005/2006 and 2008/2009 La Nina's
Link
Just had a pretty good storm come through...actually felt like a tropical system with wind for about 5 minutes lol.
Here is the temp forecast for the next few months. It seems the models are heading for quite the shift it appears. Much needed here in the East.




Ric, the pressure rises across Australia looks incredible combined that with low pressures across the C-Pac means what now most models showing atleast a 2C El-Nino is now more believable more than ever. Have you seen the recent Jamstec update for June? If not here you go.


Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:


I've looked at all the models earlier and they all seem to show one heck of a SOI drop starting June 20th as a result come around the 27th or 28th of June is when the ridge breaks and allows for a deep trough to settle across the EAST. This would be a significant pattern change from where we are currently and could even get quite cool in some locations across the Great lakes region.


It would feel more like late August.
Thanks for personal congratulations. It's always great to share about the weather with you. You are awesome! And yes, is correct the "Feliz Aniversário" hahahaha.
Quoting 77. Skyepony:


Actually by the model at this point in time it's not even depicted so much as a closed low.


Overall GEOS-5 tends to under-do marginal tropical systems. Like the gfs & many other models that one circle can be the low for that larger area and not the absolute lowest pressure located inside an area that may even be smaller than the smallest resolution of the model.. Also the intensity of the rainfall as well as structure of the storm improves by this model as it moves through Northeast Texas and Southeast OK.

Based on this model's tendencies & such I wouldn't be surprised by some strengthening in the intensity. There is a front coming into play from across the Rockies. It actually caused more Local Damage Reports than Bill. When these two interact over already wet ground, Bill remains may dish more per hour than it is at the moment.


Now I'm really confused. All I see on that chart are isobars. There are no labels for minimum pressures at all. How can you tell if the purple area is or isn't a closed low? Are you saying that, if there is a labeled pressure for a low, that may not be the lowest pressure for the low?
Quoting 83. JRRP:

David Zierden ‏@FLClimateCenter 23 minHace 23 minutos
New ERSST.v4 made 2014/2015 #ElNino disappear, along with 2005/2006 and 2008/2009 La Nina's




Seriously, though - has this happened before with different versions?
That is one heck of a feeder band stretching from the Texas coast into ex-Bill. Some areas have received the expected heavy rain while others have not. Been in New Orleans for the past few days. Hot and dry. Great place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Not even a Tropical Wave. Damm! That Sat pic looks like what one would expect in the Winter not mid June and to think some members suspect the MDR might be active come September. LOL!


It's only june though. Come August/September trade winds would have relaxed somewhat, the ITCZ raised and there'll be less dust with the Sahel rainy season kicking in. Not to mention no one said the MDR would be active, but given many storms have formed in the MDR in September during El Ninos, there's a high possiblilty of getting a storm or two in the MDR.

Quoting 67. washingtonian115:

Temperature reached 104 with a dewpoint of 80.I remember this because it was one of the rare times I teleworked from home during the summer because it was to HOT!


Thanks didn't remember exact value. But it was awful! I was out in it that Friday afternoon getting the garden
ready for my weekend absence..

Upper 80s in Deep Creek Lake. Lake was warm and very good swimming. Locals were complaing about the heat
that weekend.
Pressure has not risen much since 10am advisory, was 1002mb. As of 13:53, 1002.3mb at Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport.

Quoting 64. DFWdad:

Fort Worth, Naval Air Station - 29.65" / 1007.3mb
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport - 29.65" / 1003.3mb.

I think the remnants of Bill have arrived in Fort Worth.
Link
Ric, the pressure rises across Australia looks incredible combined that with low pressures across the C-Pac means what now most models showing atleast a 2C El-Nino is now more believable more than ever. Have you seen the recent Jamstec update for June? If not here you go.


scott...isn't that the same people that predicted this would be a modoki el nino a little over 3 months ago?????


you might want to sample google to see some of the articles about that model.......

Quoting 91. Bucsboltsfan:

That is one heck of a feeder band stretching from the Texas coast into ex-Bill. Some areas have received the expected heavy rain while others have not. Been in New Orleans for the past few days. Hot and dry. Great place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.


Yes. Grew up in Baton Rouge 60 miles away. I really really try not to visit family in the summer, since it usually involves a side to N.O. How did I grow up there?

Houston is getting more rain today from the feeder band, than yesterday.
Quoting 50. ThirdDayRanch:

Hello Dr. Masters and everyone, I have been a fan of this blog for years, but my first time to post. We live in on a ranch in Cuero, Texas and our businesses are in Victoria. Not much action yesterday other than heavy wind gusts, so my young boys, husband and I prepared the ranch for the storm and made the decision to allow our team members to go home and do the same. As of 8 am this morning we had 1 inch of rain. Around 9 am however, the storms began and as of 11am CST we now have a total of 10 inches - and it%u2019s still raining. (It took me a while to post due to connectivity issues with the storm, so as of 12:52 CST, we've had over 13 inches of rain. I can no longer track it due to a failed rain gauge.) We have a low water bridge to cross on our 115 acres and this is the 6th time this year that we%u2019ve been flooded in. We%u2019ve owned the land 5 years and have never been flooded in before 2015. This past Sunday we had 5.5 inches of rain as well. My hometown of Victoria is known as the crossroads of Texas and is growing rapidly, with nearly 200,000 people in the surrounding communities. That's where the eye of the storm came through and we are getting the worst of it today. Cuero is 25 miles NW of Victoria. We%u2019ve had our share of storms in the past, Carla and Claudette, to name a couple, and we prepare wisely despite the category of storm.

I do have a question for the experts on this blog. Our El Nino 2015 seems to share the characteristics of the 1997/98 El Nino (I can%u2019t explain why, so please don%u2019t hammer me for this), so do you think that it is because the sea surface temperatures may be positioned further west than a classic El Nino? 2004 was an example of this, with more 15 named storms and 6 major hurricanes. This would allow for a normal hurricane season in the Gulf and Atlantic like that of the 1998 season, which caused the devastating floods in South Texas. I know today, we will likely have historical rainfall amounts, and if you add the 5.5 inches that we received Sunday, the week may be the wettest on record for DeWitt County. Thank you for your expert insights on this website, as they have kept us out for harm's way for years.
Holy cow! You've had over 13 inches of rain just today? You must really live in an orographically favored area. I haven't heard of any totals near that large. Victoria Regional is reporting 2.07" so far today.

2004-2005 were weak El Nino years. 1997-98 was one of the strongest El Nino's on record. The storms in 1998 came fairly late in the season, as the year was transitioning into one the strongest La Nina's on record. Assuming we end up with at least a moderate El Nino this year, we shouldn't see the same number of storms as 1998, since it's likely we won't transition in La Nina until at least the first part 0f 2016. In a weak El Nino year, chances are about equally likely for an above or below average season. There's a much better correlation between a strong La Nina for an above average number of storms than a weak El Nino. All of this only has to do with storm numbers. The presence or absence of an El Nino hasn't been shown to have any correlation with how strong storms get or where they hit. You can have these heavy rains in any year. The fact you're having these rains now at the beginning of an El Nino year compared to 1998, at the end of an El Nino year, really has nothing to do with it.
for awhile we've been hearing of a second kelvin wave emerging from about 130E........well....finally we can see it on the latest anomaly chart......kind of looks like a porn star on the right....and well......well...enough said i think :-)

Quoting 96. ricderr:

Ric, the pressure rises across Australia looks incredible combined that with low pressures across the C-Pac means what now most models showing atleast a 2C El-Nino is now more believable more than ever. Have you seen the recent Jamstec update for June? If not here you go.


scott...isn't that the same people that predicted this would be a modoki el nino a little over 3 months ago?????


you might want to sample google to see some of the articles about that model.......




Models are locking into what seems atleast a 2C El-Nino. By the looks it seems near 75% are atleast 2C or higher now.
The Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Indiana looks like it may hit a record stage tonight or tomorrow:

Quoting 92. LAbonbon:


The westward advancing high is beginning to impinge on the lower half of the tail somewhat. It should become decoupled from the Gulf later today. That should end the heavy rain threat for most of coastal TX but inland areas into central OK will still see a lot of rain as Bill continues to slowly move NNE.
103. yoboi
Quoting 92. LAbonbon:




Seems to be drifting very slowly in my direction....
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago

Current radar at 2:24 PM CDT over Texas for remnants of Bill
large "eye" beginning to take shape in reflectivity
Quoting 97. DFWdad:



Yes. Grew up in Baton Rouge 60 miles away. I really really try not to visit family in the summer, since it usually involves a side to N.O. How did I grow there?

Houston is getting more rain today from the feeder band, than yesterday.


Went fine there. Mostly business. Stayed downtown. I've been watching that feeder band. Quite impressive.
Quoting 90. LAbonbon:




Seriously, though - has this happened before with different versions?


A similar issue occurs when the climatology base period changes, so CPC came up with a method to deal with it. Don't know if they have done something similar with the version change, but note that only the most recent past decade had changes (at least what post #83 indicated).
107. vis0
SAR2401 i know you will not believe it but i can see an EYE in the lower atmosphere it must be BILL's eye

HERE IS PROOF::
is it BILLs EYE over NYCmake animated gifs like this at MakeaGif

Models are locking into what seems atleast a 2C El-Nino. By the looks it seems near 75% are atleast 2C or higher now.


yep they are....and i still believe they're a tad on the high side......i've noticed the the cfsv2 pdf corrected has trended just a tad bit down this week.......
Quoting 98. sar2401:

Holy cow! You've had over 13 inches of rain just today? You must really live in an orographically favored area. I haven't heard of any totals near that large. Victoria Regional is reporting 2.07" so far today.
(snip)

I'm guessing she may live SE of Cuero. Last 12 hours (1 am to 1 pm) shows a good-sized area near her of 6-8", with a smaller area of 8-10". (I read her post as she'd had 10 inches today.)

If you set this for 24 or 48 hours, some of these areas are 12-16+ inches.


(Source)
111. etxwx
We've had several bands of rain come through over the last hour. Rainfall 1+ inches an hour. There is one right now at 2.4" an hour, fortunately these showers are brief, but it's going to add up. Between readings, my weather station flashes the message "raining cats and dogs". It's not kidding.
Flash flood warning expanded for this area:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
221 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT
* AT 216 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD ACROSS EAST TEXAS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ALONG WITH CELL TRAINING ARE MAINTAINING A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
Quoting 109. LargoFl:




That blob on the coast looks even more ominous than Bill. Presumably, it's heading in the same direction, and going to dump its rain over already flooded ground. That'll be interesting.
does this mean dry for the western carib?

Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:

The CMC at day starting to favor the idea too. Boy this would be welcome relief across the SE US which has been hot a dry on average the last few weeks.


Quoting 112. yonzabam:



That blob on the coast looks even more ominous than Bill. Presumably, it's heading in the same direction, and going to dump its rain over already flooded ground. That'll be interesting.

That area is under a series of flash flood warnings currently.

Quoting 106. nrtiwlnvragn:



A similar issue occurs when the climatology base period changes, so CPC came up with a method to deal with it. Don't know if they have done something similar with the version change, but note that only the most recent past decade had changes (at least what post #83 indicated).

You are the man with the answers! Thank you.
Pressure is now lower than the 10am advisory, but not my much
1001.5 Fort Worth Navy
1001.6 Fort Worth Meacham

Quoting 95. DFWdad:

Pressure has not risen much since 10am advisory, was 1002mb. As of 13:53, 1002.3mb at Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport.


The heat is pretty intense here, as has been the case the last several days, high temps and heat index has been hotter than forecast.


My house has 94 and a 106 heat index, here is the closest official obs to me:


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)
Lat: 27.91°NLon: 82.69°WElev: 3ft.

Thunderstorm in Vicinity

92°F

33°C
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.0 mb)
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 106°F (41°C)
Last update 17 Jun 3:53 pm EDT
Here are the current conditions for the Florida Big Bend...............Everyone at work is having the same lunchtime conversation........Are we all going to melt in July and August?
Quoting 110. LAbonbon:


I'm guessing she may live SE of Cuero. Last 12 hours (1 am to 1 pm) shows a good-sized area near her of 6-8", with a smaller area of 8-10". (I read her post as she'd had 10 inches today.)

If you set this for 24 or 48 hours, some of these areas are 12-16+ inches.


(Source)


Precip estimates also tend to be lower than actual values in tropical system events.
Quoting 99. ricderr:

for awhile we've been hearing of a second kelvin wave emerging from about 130E........well....finally we can see it on the latest anomaly chart......kind of looks like a porn star on the right....and well......well...enough said i think :-)


La nina for next year!
Quoting 119. Jedkins01:

The heat is pretty intense here, as has been the case the last several days, high temps and heat index has been hotter than forecast.


My house has 94 and a 106 heat index, here is the closest official obs to me:


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)
Lat: 27.91°NLon: 82.69°WElev: 3ft.

Thunderstorm in Vicinity

92°F

33°C
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.0 mb)
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 106°F (41°C)
Last update 17 Jun 3:53 pm EDT

For awhile the forecast discussion was saying the ridge was going to break down, but now they're saying this

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
the upper ridge will be suppressed southward as the short wave
trough remnant of Bill tracks from the Ohio Valley to the East
Coast this weekend.
However, this will give US only the slightest
relief from the ongoing heat wave as another upper ridge will
become established over the area once again by Tuesday and
Wednesday.
This pattern will result in below climatology probability of precipitation generally
in the 20-30% range with above normal temperatures. Expect daytime
highs to be in the middle 90s on Saturday, but then inch back to the
upper 90s after that. 100-degree temperatures will be possible in a few
spots. It will not be surprising if heat advisory criteria is met
on a few days next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the
middle 70s.
Quoting 110. LAbonbon:


I'm guessing she may live SE of Cuero. Last 12 hours (1 am to 1 pm) shows a good-sized area near her of 6-8", with a smaller area of 8-10". (I read her post as she'd had 10 inches today.)

If you set this for 24 or 48 hours, some of these areas are 12-16+ inches.


(Source)


Thank you for responding, yes, I actually do live just SE of Cuero. We are over 15" now. I just ran out to empty the gauge again, as it continues to overflow. This is an historical event for us in DeWitt County, with many of the major US Highways closing. When we get a break, the boys and I are going to take some pictures and I'll post them for you all. Let's not forget to add the 5.5" from Sunday for our total for the week. In regards to my question on the El Nino and it's affect on the hurricane season, I guess I should clarify my question. I believe that this will be a strong El Nino, and I base that purely on my research over the years - I am not an expert, not even close. I just love the weather. My question is, do any of you think that the 2015 El Nino could be a Modoki El Nino? Do you even believe in the concept of having a hybrid El Nino? Then, if so, could it allow for more hurricanes to form in the Gulf and Atlantic this season? Thanks!
Oh and do you all expect any more rain for us? It's hard to tell because the connectivity issues.
WTNT32 KWNH 172029
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVING OVER THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 97.4W
ABOUT 5 MILES...8 KM...NNW OF FORT WORTH TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...48 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...12 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF BOTH THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA...AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA. BILL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH HEALTHY RAINBAND STRUCTURES
NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE SOME OF THE CURRENT FLASH
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING...AND TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF BILL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ON FRIDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 1.48
BENTONVILLE 1.43

...OKLAHOMA...
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51
MCALESTER REGIONAL ARPT 1.42

...TEXAS...
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
SEALY 0.3 WNW 8.09
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW 6.12
PORT LAVACA 0.9 NW 5.56
INEZ 1.8 WNW 4.36
WACO 0.8 N 3.91
KINGSVILLE NAS 2.90
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.51
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
DENTON MUNI ARPT 1.79
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT 1.72
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.42


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER FANNING
Quoting 112. yonzabam:



That blob on the coast looks even more ominous than Bill. Presumably, it's heading in the same direction, and going to dump its rain over already flooded ground. That'll be interesting.
yes sometimes those left over blobs develop into something
Quoting 125. ThirdDayRanch:

Oh and do you all expect any more rain for us? It's hard to tell because the connectivity issues.


'Fraid so. Bill is currently exiting Texas and going into Oklahoma. But, there is a 'tail' following on that has a lot of rain in it. Some of the 'tail' hasn't even crossed the coast yet.
Quoting 125. ThirdDayRanch:

Oh and do you all expect any more rain for us? It's hard to tell because the connectivity issues.

As of NWS-Corpus Christi's Flash Flood Statement (for Dewitt County), issued 1:50 CDT, they were calling for an additional 1-2 inches. Not sure how much you've received between its issuance and now, though. And the latest QPFs show less than an inch for you guys. It does look like there's a light at the end of the tunnel for you all!
132. yoboi
Quoting 127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Eastbound and down got a long way to go and a short time to get there...
Have you tried watching the rain cells via the maps and radar tab on the top of this page?  Click onto it, then the interactive radar.  If you click onto the gear by radar you will have an option to select storm track.  Also can adjust storm opacity for the radar to view your location a bit better.  Hope this helps.  
Does the Guadelupe River drains your area?  The "s" curves of that river will be nothing but a straight path flowing to the gulf!  No tubers in the river for awhile...
Quoting 123. opal92nwf:


For awhile the forecast discussion was saying the ridge was going to break down, but now they're saying this

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
the upper ridge will be suppressed southward as the short wave
trough remnant of Bill tracks from the Ohio Valley to the East
Coast this weekend.
However, this will give US only the slightest
relief from the ongoing heat wave as another upper ridge will
become established over the area once again by Tuesday and
Wednesday.
This pattern will result in below climatology probability of precipitation generally
in the 20-30% range with above normal temperatures. Expect daytime
highs to be in the middle 90s on Saturday, but then inch back to the
upper 90s after that. 100-degree temperatures will be possible in a few
spots. It will not be surprising if heat advisory criteria is met
on a few days next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the
middle 70s.


I know I'm sick of this stupid ridge already, this is climo for the plains and northern U.S. this time of year, not the southeast.

Not good news. Maybe model guidance will be wrong, we'll see. We can hope anyway.
Will note that while I am complaining and we are noting the heat issues in many parts of the US (and the SE currently), I had lunch with an Iraq veteran today (now in law enforcement) and our troops in the Middle East, past and present, routinely suffer these types of heat conditions while serving our Country.......They have to follow the same rules of the road that we do (unless in the literal heat of battle); stay hydrated and try to limit your time outside or in the sun and particularly the elderly and children (and athletes).
136. etxwx
TORNADO WARNING
TXC007-391-172115-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0049.150617T2038Z-150617T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 337 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLIDAY BEACH...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
ROCKPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTIES.

My 133 comment was directed to Third Day Ranch 125 comment, forgot to quote the 125 comment....
Here are the current conditions for the Florida Big Bend...............Everyone at work is having the same lunchtime conversation........Are we all going to melt in July and August?

i'm not a fan of the heat index to describe how hot it is unless your activities are outside....typically we go from our air conditioned house.......to our air conditioned car....to our air conditioned school or office....and then maybe dinner or movies or the store at air conditioned places...so.....what does a heat index really mean?.....

now in the summer....i know many times...when i've been at 97/98...with a heat index of 94 due to low humidity and a breeze.......while many places in florida come in at 87 and a higher heat index than my actual temperature......but the difference is...when your actual temperature is higher....it takes more energy for your ac to work....ac's have to work harder...your cars inside temp is higher...thus taking longer to cool off....etc...etc....

now if you're going to be outside.....i give you my deepest sympathies
Quoting 124. ThirdDayRanch:



Thank you for responding, yes, I actually do live just SE of Cuero. We are over 15" now. I just ran out to empty the gauge again, as it continues to overflow. This is an historical event for us in DeWitt County, with many of the major US Highways closing. When we get a break, the boys and I are going to take some pictures and I'll post them for you all. Let's not forget to add the 5.5" from Sunday for our total for the week. In regards to my question on the El Nino and it's affect on the hurricane season, I guess I should clarify my question. I believe that this will be a strong El Nino, and I base that purely on my research over the years - I am not an expert, not even close. I just love the weather. My question is, do any of you think that the 2015 El Nino could be a Modoki El Nino? Do you even believe in the concept of having a hybrid El Nino? Then, if so, could it allow for more hurricanes to form in the Gulf and Atlantic this season? Thanks!

I'd like to see some photos of your area; that's a lot of rain. I'm sure others here would as well. Be safe though!

And I'm going to defer to others on El Nino again. As I'm sure you know, there are several El Nino 'followers' here :-)
138. ricderr
4:47 PM EDT on June 17, 2015


I agree; see my comment below. It's a piece of cake if you have the comfort and luxury of air conditioning in your car and at home/work. Important to check on kids, elderly, and the poor in these conditions if they cannot afford it.
speaking of hot though.......it's coming for us....we're forecast for a week of triple digit numbers starting tomorrow......not that unusual though....we average 16 100 degree or warmer days a year.and half of those come in june...and quite refreshing as we look at it compared to last year...as last june....we saw 20 days at or above 100 degrees and so far this year we haven't had any......
TNT32 KWNH 172029
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVING OVER THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 97.4W
ABOUT 5 MILES...8 KM...NNW OF FORT WORTH TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...48 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...12 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF BOTH THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA...AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA. BILL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH HEALTHY RAINBAND STRUCTURES
NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE SOME OF THE CURRENT FLASH
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING...AND TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF BILL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ON FRIDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 1.48
BENTONVILLE 1.43

...OKLAHOMA...
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51
MCALESTER REGIONAL ARPT 1.42

...TEXAS...
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
SEALY 0.3 WNW 8.09
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW 6.12
PORT LAVACA 0.9 NW 5.56
INEZ 1.8 WNW 4.36
WACO 0.8 N 3.91
KINGSVILLE NAS 2.90
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.51
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
DENTON MUNI ARPT 1.79
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT 1.72
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.42


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
Hoping the WPC map Doc & Bob have in blog is correct and Bill stays S of StL. Had a .6" Sat night, 1.25" Mon. night (fortunately right after I finished mowing), dumped 2" this morning, had another .5" in the gauge at lunch. All this on top of the 2-3" event last week, followed by a couple of .25-.5 events. We don't need Bill in S C IL! StL was putting up their flood gates yesterday. All 3 rivers are at or near flood stage. Downstream not sure if Ohio has dropped much from flooding earlier this year. Lots of water heading back to Gulf!

Dew pts in lower 70s, but cloud cover keeping temps in mid 70s, pressure right at 30" and light W-SW winds.
Quoting 131. tampabaymatt:




Just an inch of rain, please, before the FL death ridge builds back in. It is so torrid and miserable here. There certainly will be no rain today.



nice spin to T.D BILL
Quoting 138. ricderr:

Here are the current conditions for the Florida Big Bend...............Everyone at work is having the same lunchtime conversation........Are we all going to melt in July and August?

i'm not a fan of the heat index to describe how hot it is unless your activities are outside....typically we go from our air conditioned house.......to our air conditioned car....to our air conditioned school or office....and then maybe dinner or movies or the store at air conditioned places...so.....what does a heat index really mean?.....

now in the summer....i know many times...when i've been at 97/98...with a heat index of 94 due to low humidity and a breeze.......while many places in florida come in at 87 and a higher heat index than my actual temperature......but the difference is...when your actual temperature is higher....it takes more energy for your ac to work....ac's have to work harder...your cars inside temp is higher...thus taking longer to cool off....etc...etc....

now if you're going to be outside.....i give you my deepest sympathies


Yard work is brutal with heat indexes are over 100 just about everyday in June, this is not normal. If I have to do yard work after my real job then it's 2 showers a day, no way to avoid it with the heat and humidity we're getting in the SE.
Quoting 133. marynell:

Have you tried watching the rain cells via the maps and radar tab on the top of this page? Click onto it, then the interactive radar. If you click onto the gear by radar you will have an option to select storm track. Also can adjust storm opacity for the radar to view your location a bit better. Hope this helps.
Does the Guadelupe River drains your area? The "s" curves of that river will be nothing but a straight path flowing to the gulf! No tubers in the river for awhile...


Thank you for the comments. Yes normally I'd use the radar, but we live on a ranch outside of Cuero and our internet and cell service is slow on a good day. Today I can't get the radar to appear. I've been texting my team members in Victoria to find out what's approaching. They've only had 2" of rain there. I thought it would be nice to have an opinion from this blog. Yes, the Guadalupe is a few miles from our home, separated by US Hwy 87, which is currently closed. This morning I believe it was around 24 ft, if I remember correctly. Thanks for the message!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bill, located inland over northern Texas near the
Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Information on Tropical Depression Bill can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS
header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropstorms. shtml.
Yard work is brutal with heat indexes are over 100 just about everyday in June, this is not normal. If I have to do yard work after my real job then it's 2 showers a day, no way to avoid it with the heat and humidity we're getting in the SE.

that is true.....when i lived in florida......i would mow the front yard.....then hop in the pool for a bit...and continue to the back.....

the nice thing here...is it really cools off....even last year when we had our hottest day at 109...it cooled down to 72....so when it's yardwork time....outside from 6 to 8 or nine in the morning...and it's rather nice


That is some nasty looking storms in around Mathis, TX..
Quoting 96. ricderr:.


scott...isn't that the same people that predicted this would be a modoki el nino a little over 3 months ago?????


you might want to sample google to see some of the articles about that model.......




I remember that one as well. I think the quote was "a return to a modoki look" or something similar.
Basically anything ever from the "JB" crowd is met with an eye roll from me.
It seems to be a lot of throwing a bunch of stuff against a wall.
Something will stick eventually, right?

Real-time observations as various things unfold seem much more interesting. Local short to medium range forecasts are worthy of serious consideration.
Let us check out El-Nino now:
Weekly value: Niño 3.4 1.3ºC
The most recent ONI value (March – May 2015) is 0.7oC.
153. etxwx
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXC349-172115-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0109.000000T0000Z-150617T2115Z/
NAVARRO TX-
402 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NAVARRO COUNTY...

AT 402 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CORSICANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

154. vis0
Quoting 90. LAbonbon:




Seriously, though - has this happened before with different versions?
 At least is not the NOAA Xperimental ERSST #.9xB Dakster introduced back in the 2014

Quoting 145. HurrMichaelOrl:



Just an inch of rain, please, before the FL death ridge builds back in. It is so torrid and miserable here. There certainly will be no rain today.


Seems like I'm the only person in FL still getting rain. Yet another thunderstorm passed through my location about 20 minutes ago. It's nice and rain cooled here now :)
Funny how weather works... not to long ago if someone asked you to name some of the driest states in the US you would of named texas as one... but now its super saturated :P
Guadalupe River in vicinity of Cuero (in order from upstream to downstream gauges):





Flood watches and warnings abound today in OK. You can't eat just one... but here's "one" anyway...
The Washita River between Pauls Valley and Dickson. The Washita enters Red River a short distance downstream from where major flooding is expected along Red River near Gainesville TX.

Quoting 155. tampabaymatt:



Seems like I'm the only person in FL still getting rain. Yet another thunderstorm passed through my location about 20 minutes ago. It's nice and rain cooled here now :)

Rub it in Matt! :) I don't understand how the ridge leads to almost a 100% absence of rain here in E. Central FL, while still allowing for rain on the west coast. I just went outside for 10 minutes to water the orchids, and I am noticeably tanner than before.
Quoting 154. vis0:

 At least is not the NOAA Xperimental ERSST #.9xB Dakster introduced back in the 2014



Now that's funny, vis. You've got some skills!
I remember that one as well. I think the quote was "a return to a modoki look" or something similar.
Basically anything ever from the "JB" crowd is met with an eye roll from me.
It seems to be a lot of throwing a bunch of stuff against a wall.
Something will stick eventually, right?

Real-time observations as various things unfold seem much more interesting. Local short to medium range forecasts are worthy of serious consideration.
Let us check out El-Nino now:
Weekly value: Niño 3.4 1.3ºC
The most recent ONI value (March – May 2015) is 0.7oC.


i'll give JB credit when it comes to short range winter conditions.....from someone who doesn't live in the northeast and doesn't know the local forecasters there....i think you're hard pressed to find someone as good as he...but for long range forecasts...el nino and climate change...the guy is a buffoon....well paid...but a buffoon none the less.....and what really irks me....there as well as here...is the guy forgets....i believe by choice...what he said months prior...when he's wrong...he'll say "i told you so"..you go back and read his posts and twitter feeds....and he had said the oppositte
Seems like I'm the only person in FL still getting rain. Yet another thunderstorm passed through my location about 20 minutes ago. It's nice and rain cooled here now :)


we're gonna have to change your name...to sts.....ta da da boom.......

i'm out folks......have fun
163. beell
Quoting 134. Jedkins01:



I know I'm sick of this stupid ridge already, this is climo for the plains and northern U.S. this time of year, not the southeast.

Not good news. Maybe model guidance will be wrong, we'll see. We can hope anyway.


Jed, let's talk...in September.
:)


Mean 500 mb heights-June 1/August 31, 2011
Quoting 150. ricderr:

Yard work is brutal with heat indexes are over 100 just about everyday in June, this is not normal. If I have to do yard work after my real job then it's 2 showers a day, no way to avoid it with the heat and humidity we're getting in the SE.

that is true.....when i lived in florida......i would mow the front yard.....then hop in the pool for a bit...and continue to the back.....

the nice thing here...is it really cools off....even last year when we had our hottest day at 109...it cooled down to 72....so when it's yardwork time....outside from 6 to 8 or nine in the morning...and it's rather nice


Here, we usually have lows between 75-77F during heat waves like this. The temp usually passes the 80F mark around 7:30 am - 8:00 am and does not drop below 80F until at least midnight. The hours between 10pm and 8:00am still have very high humidity (afternoons the humidity drops to 38-48%), between 70-90%, so it feels like a normal summer during these hours.
Quoting 163. beell:



Jed, let's talk...in September.
:)


Mean 500 mb heights-June 1/August 31, 2001
2100 2011
Quoting 158. Barefootontherocks:

Flood watches and warnings abound today in OK. You can't eat just one... but here's "one" anyway...
The Washita River between Pauls Valley and Dickson. The Washita enters Red River a short distance downstream from where major flooding is expected along Red River near Gainesville TX.




center of 02L about to enter south cen OK.

167. vis0
i missed the last pages of the previous blog did we lambast that left right cooperate CBS station in Tx for being so wrong saying some MODELs showing 16 '' of rain in 3 days, how dare they it was 16'' in 1-2 days.

Since we still cannot be precise in areas to be affected, take heed when your area is near by any OFFICIAL watch of over 2 inches it can shift just a few hundred miles and vwualla, "WHAT IFs" start popping up. Whats wrong with planning for the worst if nothing bad happens its OK. Life is not a game show where unless you get everything right you loose and hear that losers tune, wha wha wha whaaaaaaawawaawaaa. 

In real life you did very well to be prepared and all neighbors AFTER the storm and cleaning up of near by neighborhoods affected should have a "THANX U FOR being prepared get together" (a quiet POST PRE(paredness) PARTY) and share tips and new ideas as to safety. Again done AFTER helping close by neighborhoods that did suffer damages.
168. beell
Quoting 163. beell:



Jed, let's talk...in September.
:)


Mean 500 mb heights-June 1/August 31, 2011


Got it, bf. Thanks.
There's some heavy rain getting trained into Bill's tail in South Texas from Laredo and parts west. They're saying San Antonio will get 2 inches overnight. Amazing how this thing just keeps on going.
Quoting 168. beell:



Got it, bf. Thanks.
I remember that summer. Temp varied between 90 and 115 for six weeks straight. 90 as a low, that is.

(Ps. I made a typo also, but left it in on purpose. You were supposed to laugh. lpl Add: At least, I hoped you would. Laugh.)
As of 3:30 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was about 5 miles north-northwest of downtown Fort Worth, Texas, according to radar data. The circulation is moving just west of due north at about 7 mph.
A wind advisory is in effect for much of north Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, until 7 p.m. Wednesday. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts above 30 mph were reported across most of the Metroplex late Wednesday morning as Bill's center approached from the south.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says there is a high risk of flash flooding in two areas. One is over parts of south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas; the other is in a narrow zone in Texas west of Houston and east of San Antonio.
Steady moderate to heavy rain has led to pockets of flooding in north Texas. Numerous roads were closed in Wise County due to flooding Wednesday afternoon. Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport has picked up 2.30 inches of rain as of early Wednesday afternoon.
Flooding is also a major concern around Dallas-Fort Worth area reservoirs, as they are all completely full. Lake Grapevine, just north of DFW Airport, is more than 25 feet above capacity.
Farther south, rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches are common so far in the Houston area. Bush Intercontinental Airport has received 3.40 inches of rain as of 1:30 p.m. Wednesday.
Locations west and southwest of Houston have picked up the heaviest rain. Top reported totals include 11.77 inches near Ganado, Texas, and 11.78 inches west of El Campo in Wharton County, Texas. U.S. Highway 59, a major traffic corridor connecting Houston with Corpus Christi, was closed at the Wharton/Jackson County line around midday Wednesday due to flooding.
Many roads in Rockport, Texas, were flooded by up to a foot of water early Wednesday afternoon with cars stalled in front of Rockport High School. Water also reportedly entered one home. In addition, flooding was reported on parts of Texas Highway 35 from Portland to nine miles south of Rockport. The National Weather Service says that 5 to 6 inches of rain fell in two hours in Rockport Wednesday afternoon.
Significant street flooding was reported on the southside of Corpus Christi, Texas, Wednesday afternoon.
Bill made landfall as a tropical storm on Matagorda Island, Texas at 11:45 a.m. CDT Tuesday with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



center of 02L about to enter south cen OK.


Yep. That bugger's about to cross Red River. Been raining here (15 S of Norman) since 2 p.m.
Quoting 163. beell:



Jed, let's talk...in September.
:)


Mean 500 mb heights-June 1/August 31, 2001
Geez, are you ever the bearer of good news today. I sure hope that's wrong. According to my weather station, the high has been 104 so far with a high THI of 110. It's supposed to be warmer tomorrow. There are a few thunderstorms in Alabama today. None by me, but hope springs eternal. Oops, got to run, the lawn just caught on fire. :-)
Quoting 169. summerland:

There's some heavy rain getting trained into Bill's tail in South Texas from Laredo and parts west. They're saying San Antonio will get 2 inches overnight. Amazing how this thing just keeps on going.


Looks like the Corpus blob has de-coupled from Bill and is growing with energy from MX.
Wow, I can tell by the building creaking, former Tropical Storm bill is still holding on! I am on the 11th floor of a 33 story building in Fort Worth.

Pic is kinda small, winds are gusting to 40 mph in parts of town.
there is a little delay with getting image so time stamp may be a little later than normal

177. etxwx
Chaser Chad Vandever on TVN is covering street flooding near Ardmore, OK.
Ex-WildBill's pressure had been rising. No drop, at least not as of 2:30 pm cdt surface analysis. which had it at 1006mb.

Maybe the "red dirt effect" (credit Bob Henson/Jeff Masters) is working on former Bill as the center is near crossing Red River into Oklahoma, and the current SPC mesoanalysis page has the pressure at 1004mb for 4 pm. We'll see what it shows at 5.
Quoting 159. HurrMichaelOrl:


Rub it in Matt! :) I don't understand how the ridge leads to almost a 100% absence of rain here in E. Central FL, while still allowing for rain on the west coast. I just went outside for 10 minutes to water the orchids, and I am noticeably tanner than before.


It's because the ridge suppresses vertical motion, and basically only forcing along sea breeze boundary collisions is enough, which in this case is the west side due to easterly flow. Even then, in most cases even along the sea breeze activity has been minimal, we've had numerous towering cumulus here around me throughout the day and nothing is developing in this area. Even with a high of 94 and now a 78 dewpoint, surface instability isn't enough to overcome the sinking.

Yesterday when the two seabreeze boundaries led to massive thunderstorms across the bay with incredible lightning, although none of it made it back to the coast, since as I mentioned, once the activity left the boundary collision, sinking air behind it was too strong. So the powerful thunderstorms collapsed not surprisingly.


This is a good reminder that a lot of atmospheric moisture doesn't simply equal a lot of rain, PW's around normal right now, and only slightly lower than they were last Wednesday when shower and thunderstorm coverage was about 80-90% and flash flooding occurred in parts of the Tampa Bay area.

here is latest 9 mins old


Perhaps the "brown ocean effect" might work. Was this why erin dumped torrential rain in oklahoma back in 2007? I never heard of the brown ocean effect until a few days ago.
At 5PM, pressure reading at Fort Worth Alliance Airport is down to 999.9mb.. That is North of Fort Worth.

At the big airport (DFW) winds are South at 32 with Gusts to 43.

The rain has stopped for now. Another band is trying to form closer to us. Spawned a tornado warning a little while ago.


Quoting 118. DFWdad:

Pressure is now lower than the 10am advisory, but not my much
1001.5 Fort Worth Navy
1001.6 Fort Worth Meacham


Not that i want it to, i've never seen it in action as far as i know.
It's amazing how mother nature works!
Quoting 180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is latest 9 mins old



Quoting 182. DFWdad:

At 5PM, pressure reading at Fort Worth Alliance Airport is down to 999.9mb.. That is North of Fort Worth.

At the big airport (DFW) winds are South at 32 with Gusts to 43.

The rain has stopped for now. Another band is trying to form closer to us. Spawned a tornado warning a little while ago.



OK, but Fort Worth Meacham is at 1003.7 and rising. Just use one place if you're doing a pressure comparison. The pressure is going to vary by a couple of millibars from airport to airport. It will also vary depending on how close a thunderstorm is or if one just went through. It usually takes a couple of hours to see a trend.
Quoting 178. Barefootontherocks:

Ex-WildBill's pressure had been rising. No drop, at least not as of 2:30 pm cdt surface analysis. which had it at 1006mb.

Maybe the "red dirt effect" (credit Bob Henson/Jeff Masters) is working on former Bill as the center is near crossing Red River into Oklahoma, and the current SPC mesoanalysis page has the pressure at 1004mb for 4 pm. We'll see what it shows at 5.
NVMD. Was 1004mb at 2:30 cdt. I misread the WPC analysis page.
;(

Add: Wishcaster!
Quoting 180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE



The umbilical sever between blob and Bill is a little clearer here. Wonder what happens now?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX / EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172214Z - 180015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A STORM OR TWO TO
INTENSIFY AND PERHAPS ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE ROTATION AS
STORMS MOVE INTO A THETA-E AXIS OVER NERN TX.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CENTER
OF THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL 15 MI NNE FTW WITH A CONFLUENCE LINE/BAND
OF STORMS ALIGNED FROM 45 MI E OF DAL TO 10 NNE CRS TO 10 MI S ACT.
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL TX NEWD INTO NERN TX AND A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO NERN TX. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOME CLOUD
BREAKS HAVE PERMITTED SOME DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NERN TX AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY BUOYANT/VERY
MOIST AIRMASS. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORING THE NERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER UPDRAFTS CAN STRENGTHEN
ENOUGH TO ACQUIRE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.
NONETHELESS...SHORT-TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR
STORM INTENSIFICATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TORNADO WATCH
OVER NERN TX/EXTREME SERN OK.


..SMITH/HART.. 06/17/2015
Quoting 184. hurricanewatcher61:

It's amazing how mother nature works!

yes it is
it's all a wunder of nature
Looks like a touch of baroclinic enhancement going on with Bill.

Maybe Bill could slam the ridge a little. 101* today at work. That's with the heat index. Very hot on the space coast.
Quoting 145. HurrMichaelOrl:



Just an inch of rain, please, before the FL death ridge builds back in. It is so torrid and miserable here. There certainly will be no rain today.
192. txjac
Quoting 191. hurricanewatcher61:

Maybe Bill could slam the ridge a little. 101* today at work. That's with the heat index. Very hot on the space coast.


Can you all now see why our Governor had us pray for some rain when the ridge was so bad here? lol
Quoting 181. TimTheWxMan:

Perhaps the "brown ocean effect" might work. Was this why erin dumped torrential rain in oklahoma back in 2007? I never heard of the brown ocean effect until a few days ago.
You might want to check out the Doc M and Bob Henson blog a couple blogs ago. They mention Erin. Also, Marshall Shepherd did some research and helped name it "brown ocean." More about that can be found on Doc Shepherd's current wunderground blog, What is BrownOcean? Is Bill Experiencing it?
Quoting 185. sar2401:

OK, but Fort Worth Meacham is at 1003.7 and rising. Just use one place if you're doing a pressure comparison. The pressure is going to vary by a couple of millibars from airport to airport. It will also vary depending on how close a thunderstorm is or if one just went through. It usually takes a couple of hours to see a trend.


True, I just figured that since the center was moving north, that airport was the next station in its path. You can see the trend on that station's readings.
Lol! Governor Scott here in Florida doesn't seem to care. Maybe I will e-mail him and toss him a hint.
Quoting 192. txjac:



Can you all now see why our Governor had us pray for some rain when the ridge was so bad here? lol
Bill looks better over land than any hurricane from last year (with exception of Gonzalo)
198. etxwx
TORNADO WARNING
LAC011-TXC351-172315-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0014.150617T2246Z-150617T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
546 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 546 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR OLD SALEM...OR 10 MILES WEST OF FIELDS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.
The pressure has been as low as 999.9 mb at Fort Worth Airport in the last hour. Link
Quoting 197. washingtonian115:

Bill looks better over land than any hurricane from last year (with exception of Gonzalo)
Yes, and the remnants of Bill are gonna give use more cool doses of rain, a batch of thunderstorms will be coming overnight.
NWS Lake Charles ‏@NWSLakeCharles 6m6 minutes ago
A tornado warning has been issued for East Central Newton County and Southwest Beauregard parish until 6:15 PM.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 600 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 700 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 556 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 653 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 652 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 551 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 548 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 546 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 446 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 542 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
TORNADO WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 539 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
Here's another pressure of 1000.0 mb at Denton TX airport LinkLink


GUH!!!! something about a cow....a flat rock... ;-)

We are flooded! Bill came to hang out today. Stay safe out there everyone.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 506 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE IN A BAND FROM SOUTHERN JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO ROSE CITY AND VIDOR. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINTAINING A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...NEDERLAND...GROVES...PORT
NECHES...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...WEST ORANGE...DEWEYVILLE...CENTRAL
GARDENS...BUNA...MAURICEVILLE...ROSE CITY...PINE FOREST...FOREST
HEIGHTS...ORANGEFIELD...GIST...DEVILS POCKET AND HARTBURG.
208. beell
Quoting 190. 1900hurricane:

Looks like a touch of baroclinic enhancement going on with Bill.




Shh! That kind of talk is forbidden. This is the work of "The Polar Vortex"...
Oklahoma City is bisected by the edge of the rain shield. It's so sharp. I don't know how to post the radar image.
Quoting 195. DFWdad:



True, I just figured that since the center was moving north, that airport was the next station in its path. You can see the trend on that station's readings.

Here's a "Blow Up" (great 1960s film, btw) of Fort Worth Alliance N of Fort Worth. Now we have two, this one and Denton that are at or near 1000mb. Airports should be pretty accurate barometric pressure readings, right? WPC surface analysis at 2:30 pm cdt was 1004mb. So is ex-WildBill's low center intensifying? Inquiring minds... or wishcasters? lpl
;)


(oops - will fx image in a sec)
211. beell
Quoting 197. washingtonian115:

Bill looks better over land than any hurricane from last year (with exception of Gonzalo)




"over land" is a stretch for 2014/ATL, Ma'am.
(couldn't resist)
Quoting 208. beell:



Shh! That kind of talk is forbidden. This is the work of "The Polar Vortex"...
From a youtube video i just saw all i can tell you is... HARP!
Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Heading into Oklahoma!
209. weathergirl2001
OKC radar...
Quoting 210. Barefootontherocks:

Here's a "Blow Up" (great 1960s film, btw) of Fort Worth Alliance N of Fort Worth. Now we have two, this one and Denton that are at or near 1000mb. Airports should be pretty accurate barometric pressure readings, right? WPC surface analysis at 2:30 pm cdt was 1004mb. So is ex-WildBill's low center intensifying?
;)

Inquiring minds... or wishcasters? lpl


The pressure at Fort Worth aiport went up 3 millibars in the last hour. I think the area of the lowest pressure is very small with a steep gradient and may sometimes be slipping between county airports.
217. beell
2014


Gainesville TX is next up. I like their airport report because it updates every 20 minutes. If we're lucky the center will go right over. LinkLink
Tree down, flash flooding, VA clinic closing in Angelina Co. from tropical storm

LUFKIN, TX (KTRE) -Angelina County hasn't had much of an opportunity to dry out, before more heavy rain from tropical depression bill hit deep East Texas.

Power became a widespread issue across county. Oncor energy stated around four hundred people were affected by the outages, but closed businesses like the Lufkin veteran's clinic could have amounted to much more.

The clinic shut its doors around nine a.m., remaining closed the remainder of the day, leaving many unable to retrieve prescriptions, among other resources.

The roads also proved to be increasingly dangerous, throughout the day as highways and roadways experienced flash flooding.

TxDot crews were on standby in areas that drivers could have been caught in the shallow flowing water.

Due to the non-stop rain and flooding, Twin Oaks road in Lufkin found itself completely blocked by a fallen tree. The heavy rainfall creates too much moisture beneath the ground causing this one, among dozens of others to collapse.

After full a day of continuous rain, the national weather service has extended the flash flood warning until 6:45 this evening.



Quoting 216. weathergirl2001:



The pressure at Fort Worth aiport went up 3 millibars in the last hour. I think the area of the lowest pressure is very small with a steep gradient and may sometimes be slipping between county airports.
Yeah, the pressures have been going up and down all day, depending on where the airport is in relation to Bill and where there are any thunderstorms in the vicinity. The only way to tell the trend is track it for at least four hours. Just from the satellite and radar presentation, it doesn't look like the storm is intensifying.
Quoting 216. weathergirl2001:



The pressure at Fort Worth aiport went up 3 millibars in the last hour. I think the area of the lowest pressure is very small with a steep gradient and may sometimes be slipping between county airports.
Okay. Thanks. I've been trying to compare the "official" WPC ex-Bill 02L center pressure with what's out there now on local obs to see if the pressure's dropped at the L center since WPC at 2:30 pm cdt - 1004mb. The official analysis at 5:30 pm has it still at 1004mb.

Add: This (WPC) is apparently from 1 PM and 4PM cdt data.
Thanks barefootontherocks. I figured it out!

Been summoned for dinner.
Texas is just a mess. Again.

NWS Corpus Christi ‏@NWSCorpus 15m15 minutes ago
Avoid travel in and near Alice right now. There are multiple cars stranded across town & high water rescues ongoing. #flooding #txwx #stxwx
Quoting 208. beell:



Shh! That kind of talk is forbidden. This is the work of "The Polar Vortex"...
Is that the "Polar Vortex" staring at us on the right?
226. MahFL
Denton Municipal Airport is reporting 1000.0 Mb, near the center of Bill.
Rainfall Storm Totals

Quoting 195. DFWdad:



True, I just figured that since the center was moving north, that airport was the next station in its path. You can see the trend on that station's readings.

Ah, OK, I thought you were trying to determine if the low is deepening. Bills path is pretty clear there because there are so many airports with stations. It falls pretty dramatically as it approaches and then rises as dramatically as it moves north. It's unusual to have such a relatively small deep low that far inland that you can actually see that effect.
Hi barefoot! I hope you are not floating away. Just a quick le'zoom
from the west coast of Fla.

Goodness PLEASE let this heat ridge break DOWN-
ATL: TD Bill still is a rain threat for the U.S. as it moves into Oklahoma. Some rainfall will be producing flooding that willk be dangerous. Max. Winds 30mph

EPAC: Ex-Carlos appears to be dissipated now and will no longer be a major threat.

Read more...
Quoting 187. redwagon:

Quoting 180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE



The umbilical sever between blob and Bill is a little clearer here. Wonder what happens now?
Bill is leaving and taking his tail with him. It was the energy in the tail that allowed the blob to exist, since the tail was acting as a sucking mechanism, for lack of better term, drawing up the moisture from Mexico. Once the tail is disconnected, the blob is going to rapidly shrink. We'll see if I'm right. If not, I never wrote any of this. :-)


Apropos Twitter post a little while ago by NWS Norman Warning coordination meteorologist, Rick Smith.
Draw and crop edits by bf.

Add: LPL. I forgot to include Rick Smith's caption for Floodshark...
"Would you go in the water if you knew this was in there? Flooding kills a lot more people than sharks each year!"
VERY HIGH THREAT....... Port Charlotte to Naples, Florida .... Panama City, Florida .... Key West, Florida .... Morgan City, Louisiana .... Port O'Connor to Matagorda, Texas (TS Bill) - Hurricanecity calculations made by cities that are overdue. Every year at least one of his calculated cities get's hit.
Texas Storm Chasers retweeted
Jon Haverfield ‏@JonDopplerWX 34m34 minutes ago
Major flooding going on in Holland, TX! #ctcwx



Quoting 205. Patrap:



Beginning to accelerate. Good news (maybe?)...
It's safe to say nothing will be forming in the tropics anytime soon.

Quoting 230. aquak9:

Hi barefoot! I hope you are not floating away. Just a quick le'zoom
from the west coast of Fla.

Goodness PLEASE let this heat ridge break DOWN-
Believe it or not, quite a severe line of thunderstorms has broken out in central Georgia, with several warnings out now. There's a cell north of me in Phenix City that has had some high winds and hail. One tiny cell just formed about 10 miles south of me but the motion is such that it's going to miss me. Unfortunately, the storms only have about an hour left before they start going to sleep. It's 99 with a dewpoint of 76. I mean, we should get thunderstorms with this kind of air mass.
Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:



Apropos Twitter post a little while ago by NWS Norman Warning coordination meteorologist, Rick Smith.
Draw and crop edits by bf.

Quoting 230. aquak9:

Hi barefoot! I hope you are not floating away. Just a quick le'zoom
from the west coast of Fla.

Goodness PLEASE let this heat ridge break DOWN-
Hi aqua, Thanks. So far, so good. Maybe an inch here. Looks like a strong band of rain coming soon to the bend of McClain County where I live, but some places in Scentral OK have more than 6" of rain. Sat pics and radar look merciless for them this evening and tonight.

Wish I could send you some rain, and I hope you get some soon! Having west coast fun? Don't get sunburn. :)
Quoting 237. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's safe to say nothing will be forming in the tropics anytime soon.



That is one massive high pressure dome.
Quoting 237. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's safe to say nothing will be forming in the tropics anytime soon.


Best example of an expansive Bermuda high I've seen in a long time. It's going to be hot here for a looong time too.
243. etxwx
TORNADO WARNING
TXC241-180030-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0015.150617T2355Z-150618T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
655 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 655 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER EVADALE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY.

Texas Hurricane Statistics
Quoting 235. AtHomeInTX:

Texas Storm Chasers retweeted
Jon Haverfield ‏@JonDopplerWX 34m34 minutes ago
Major flooding going on in Holland, TX! #ctcwx




I would definitely be moving my car before too long if I was parked on Main Street.
Cheif meteorologist here in southeast TX mentioned that what's concerning, is in about 7 to 10 days the high pressure backs off to the east again and opens the door for anything tropical to hit TX again IF there were anything.
Quoting 239. TropicalAnalystwx13:





LPL. I forgot to include Rick Smith's caption for Floodshark...

"Would you go in the water if you knew this was in there? Flooding kills a lot more people than sharks each year!"

(bf out for now)
Quoting 241. Huracan94:


That is one massive high pressure dome.
Looks like Captain Trough is no where to be found.
Quoting 243. etxwx:

TORNADO WARNING
TXC241-180030-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0015.150617T2355Z-150618T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
655 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 655 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER EVADALE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY.




Just between you and me. Hope it doesn't come your way. :/
250. beell
Opinion, of course.
Just to be clear, The Brown-Ocean (BO) effect is a theory that deserves respect. The data and numerical modeling available to support BO did not even exist that many years ago. The mechanics of BO are based on empirical facts rooted in thermodynamic laws governing heat flux.

The areal extent of high soil-moisture content pre-Bill was on a synoptic scale. Large enough for its contribution to be resolved in a global model.

In the case of Bill, BO passes the sniff-test as a factor in maintenance/intensification of an inland tropical cyclone but it is not the only process at work here.

As long as the bright spotlight of social media does not blind you to that fact, all is well.
NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth 8m8 minutes ago Arlington, TX
6:50 PM - Water rescues being reported in Nolanville, in Bell County. #TurnAroundDontDrown #ctxwx #txwx #Bill.

NWS Corpus Christi ‏@NWSCorpus 16m16 minutes ago
Alice is up to 7.02" of rain in a little more than 2.5 hours! #txwx

xDOT-Beaumont ‏@TxDOTBeaumont 21m21 minutes ago
HARDIN COUNTY: water on several areas of FM421

TxDOT-Beaumont ‏@TxDOTBeaumont 23m23 minutes ago
CHAMBERS COUNTY: water on FM 562 from FM 1985 to Gau Rd and IH-10 westbound frontage Rd. between FM 563 and Trinity River

NWS San Antonio ‏@NWSSanAntonio 34m34 minutes ago
6:35 pm - For those following along, the @SATairport is now at 1.75 since the top of the hour. That is ~.50 in 10 minutes.
252. MahFL
Cloudtops cooling slightly on Bill's center.

253. etxwx
Quoting 249. AtHomeInTX:



Just between you and me. Hope it doesn't come your way. :/

Thanks AtHome, me too. I think it's just a spin up, but yep, we'll be watching.

I've been watching the TVN videos of street flooding in Ardmore, OK. I don't think the "turn around don't drown" is working for some folks there.
Amazing what people will drive through. And some will go around barricades to do it. Doh.
254. vis0
Moon dust is filling in the astronaut footprints...not to worry, friends from another galaxy are just getting ready to cover over the recent footprints of present mankind so when mankind disappears due to their 'leave it to the next generation to fix it " mentality the next "complex being" can claim they were the first earthlings to record that they landed on the moon. ; - P

SEE ACTUAL STORIES, HERE HERE AND HERE.
Quoting 248. Climate175:

Looks like Captain Trough is no where to be found.
Looks like he's vacationing in eastern Canada.
Quoting 255. Tornado6042008X:

Looks like he's vacationing in eastern Canada.

Vacationing real good up there!
257. etxwx
The poor folks around Victoria are going to have to grow gills, the rain is just not giving up.
Quoting 244. Climate175:

Texas Hurricane Statistics

Some corrections need to be made there. While it did max out as a category 4 hurricane, Brett in 1999 only made landfall as a category 3. Before then, one would have to go all the way back to Carla in 1961 to find a direct category 4 hurricane landfall in Texas.
Quoting 253. etxwx:


Thanks AtHome, me too. I think it's just a spin up, but yep, we'll be watching. "

I've been watching the TVN videos of street flooding in Ardmore, OK. I don't think the "turn around don't drown" is working for some folks there.
Amazing what people will drive through. And some will go around barricades to do it. Doh.



From what I'm seeing that's not getting through to a lot of people all over the place. It's still coming down here. They just extended our FFW again until 10:15.
A mid-level low is developing northwest of the surface low of Bill.



Quoting 258. 1900hurricane:


Some corrections need to be made there. While it did max out as a category 4 hurricane, Brett in 1999 only made landfall as a category 3. Before then, one would have to go all the way back to Carla in 1961 to find a direct category 4 hurricane landfall in Texas.
True, I believe the person was probably thinking Cat 4, as before it hit Texas and made a mistake possibly, thank you for correcting!
From NWS's Flash Flood Warnings:

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF ALICE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY...

AT 701 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORT EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE CITY OF ALICE. MANY
ROADS ARE FLOODED AND CLOSED...MANY PEOPLE ARE TRAPPED IN FLOODED
VEHICLES AND MANY WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY
. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. THE ALICE AIRPORT HAS
RECORDED MORE THAN SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN SINCE AROUND 4:30 THIS
AFTERNOON."

Quoting 257. etxwx:

The poor folks around Victoria are going to have to grow gills, the rain is just not giving up.



Boy, it sure aint!

NWS Corpus Christi ‏@NWSCorpus 23m23 minutes ago
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the city of Alice in Jim Wells county. Travel is STRONGLY DISCOURAGED unless absolutely necessary!
This is what a hailstorm looks like in London.
Quoting 261. Climate175:

True, I believe the person was probably thinking Cat 4, as before it hit Texas and made a mistake possibly, thank you for correcting!

I stumbled on this list recently that's proven helpful.


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0237
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 180023Z - 180423Z

SUMMARY...FEW MORE HOURS OF CONTINUED COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TRAINING
OVER AREAS ALREADY HIGHLY IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS...

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS UPTICK OF
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25KTS OF ONSHORE
FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH 3000-4000 J/KG ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RATES IN THE 1.5-2"/HR RANGE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS ALONG WITH BLENDED TPW SHOWS DRYING LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THAT SHOULD BE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE EXACT TIMING IS
CRITICAL TO REDUCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN THESE
CELLS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING IS NOT VERY HIGH GIVEN THAT MOST
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAD STARTED THE
DRYING PROCESS BY 00Z...WHICH IS CLEARLY NOT OCCURRING. ONLY THE
RECENT HRRR SHOWS SOME CONTINUED ELEMENTS THROUGH 04-05Z. CURRENT
THINKING IS AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS WILL EXACERBATE FLOODED
GROUNDS WITH A POTENTIAL 2-3" TOTALS...


267. vis0

Quoting 175. DFWdad:

Wow, I can tell by the building creaking, former Tropical Storm bill is still holding on! I am on the 11th floor of a 33 story building in Fort Worth.
(IMAGE REPLACED WITH VIEWABLE SIZE)by el nutto

Pic is kinda small, winds are gusting to 40 mph in parts of town.

Quoting 267. vis0:




Good job, el nutto. :-)
Quoting 267. vis0:




hatchet shale and marble.......stems and bucklet occidental three.........and twelves....maybe
Quoting 262. LAbonbon:

From NWS's Flash Flood Warnings:

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF ALICE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY...

AT 701 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORT EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE CITY OF ALICE. MANY
ROADS ARE FLOODED AND CLOSED...MANY PEOPLE ARE TRAPPED IN FLOODED
VEHICLES AND MANY WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY
. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. THE ALICE AIRPORT HAS
RECORDED MORE THAN SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN SINCE AROUND 4:30 THIS
AFTERNOON."


Strongly discouraged? That's it? I hope there are some cars with blue lights doing the discouraging.
Quoting 260. Tornado6042008X:

A mid-level low is developing northwest of the surface low of Bill.




You can tell that from radar?
Quoting 270. sar2401:

Strongly discouraged? That's it? I hope there are some cars with blue lights doing the discouraging.



OK, Sar, it had de-coupled but now looks to be on again. Will Bill slurp off this energy throughout
his itinerary?

Quoting 271. sar2401:

You can tell that from radar?

And surface observations.
Captain Trough Save the U.S is currently on Leave of Absence and we don't know when he'll be returning...
Bill still packing a bit of a punch:

Quoting 218. weathergirl2001:
Gainesville TX is next up. I like their airport report because it updates every 20 minutes. If we're lucky the center will go right over. LinkLink

You nailed it weathergirl. Gainesville TX reporting 29.58" pressure and calm winds.
Quoting 274. washingtonian115:

Captain Trough Save the U.S is currently on Leave of Absence and we don't know when he'll be returning...
Very true!
Quoting 274. washingtonian115:

Captain Trough Save the U.S is currently on Leave of Absence and we don't know when he'll be returning...
When a hurricane or significant tropical system approaches the US east coast. ;)
Quoting 278. Tornado6042008X:

When a hurricane or significant tropical system approaches the US east coast. ;)

Almost always does. In Captain Trough's absence, conditions will be too hostile for anything of substance to develop in the Atlantic basin.


I'm trying to share some images of the major floods we had today in Cuero, Texas. I uploaded the images and now I am posting the link. If there's another way, please let me know.
Quoting 268. sar2401:

Good job, el nutto. :-)
If its a good nut its good...walnuts are good too....peanuts, beer nuts, spanish nuts...
Wow! Please heed all warnings everyone!

285. etxwx
From KJAS June 17, 2015
Flash flooding has occurred both in the Buna and Kirbyville areas, and Jasper County deputies are currently involved in numerous high water rescues in and around Buna. Lieutenant Scotty Duncan is currently going house-to-house, and he has already rescued several people.
Jasper County Sheriff Mitchel Newman and the Jasper County Emergency Corps are also involved, and a command post is being set up at the Buna Sub-Courthouse. Water is reported over numerous roads in the Buna area, including U.S. Highway 96. Residents are urged to not travel to that area until the water has receded. Deputies report that most houses, businesses, and churches on the east side of Hwy 96 have water in them. Water is also reported over Farm to Market Road 252 just north of Kirbyville. Water is also reported in several homes in and around Kirbyville. The Buna, Kirbyville, and Roganville Volunteer Fire Departments are also assisting in the rescue efforts.
286. JRRP

Quoting 285. etxwx:

From KJAS June 17, 2015
Flash flooding has occurred both in the Buna and Kirbyville areas, and Jasper County deputies are currently involved in numerous high water rescues in and around Buna. Lieutenant Scotty Duncan is currently going house-to-house, and he has already rescued several people.
Jasper County Sheriff Mitchel Newman and the Jasper County Emergency Corps are also involved, and a command post is being set up at the Buna Sub-Courthouse. Water is reported over numerous roads in the Buna area, including U.S. Highway 96. Residents are urged to not travel to that area until the water has receded. Deputies report that most houses, businesses, and churches on the east side of Hwy 96 have water in them. Water is also reported over Farm to Market Road 252 just north of Kirbyville. Water is also reported in several homes in and around Kirbyville. The Buna, Kirbyville, and Roganville Volunteer Fire Departments are also assisting in the rescue efforts.


Isn't that pretty close to you?
289. etxwx
Dang...Flash Flood Emergency just issued:
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXC199-241-351-361-180315-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150618T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ORANGE TX-HARDIN TX-JASPER TX-NEWTON TX-
850 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY FROM
KIRBYVILLE TO BUNA AND EVADALE...


...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN HARDIN...SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 847 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KIRBYVILLE...BUNA AND EVADALE
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...VIDOR...KIRBYVILLE...EVADALE...CALL... DEWEYVILLE...BUNA...
MAURICEVILLE...ROSE CITY...PINE FOREST...LAKEVIEW...MT. UNION...
GIST...DEVILS POCKET...HARTBURG...TROUT CREEK...WEISS BLUFF...WRIGHTS
SETTLEMENT AND BLEAKWOOD.
Quoting 285. etxwx:

From KJAS June 17, 2015
Flash flooding has occurred both in the Buna and Kirbyville areas, and Jasper County deputies are currently involved in numerous high water rescues in and around Buna. Lieutenant Scotty Duncan is currently going house-to-house, and he has already rescued several people.
Jasper County Sheriff Mitchel Newman and the Jasper County Emergency Corps are also involved, and a command post is being set up at the Buna Sub-Courthouse. Water is reported over numerous roads in the Buna area, including U.S. Highway 96. Residents are urged to not travel to that area until the water has receded. Deputies report that most houses, businesses, and churches on the east side of Hwy 96 have water in them. Water is also reported over Farm to Market Road 252 just north of Kirbyville. Water is also reported in several homes in and around Kirbyville. The Buna, Kirbyville, and Roganville Volunteer Fire Departments are also assisting in the rescue efforts.



Kinda unbelievable. I can't even remember ever hearing about flooding there. :(
Quoting 283. hydrus:

If its a good nut its good...walnuts are good too....peanuts, beer nuts, spanish nuts...



Deez..
Quoting 279. Climate175:




And that's life... I woke last night to the sound of thunder...
Evening all.
Quoting 230. aquak9:

Hi barefoot! I hope you are not floating away. Just a quick le'zoom
from the west coast of Fla.

Goodness PLEASE let this heat ridge break DOWN-
We got our first real taste of it today ... 90 degrees with 100 degree heat index. Even with sea breezes in effect it was miserable out there ....
Quoting 293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks kinda stuck there now... for the moment!
Quoting 272. redwagon:

Give it four hours and there will be a major improvement. Ex-Bill is also starting lose the outflow north. The whole mess is starting to weaken.
297. etxwx
Quoting 288. LAbonbon:


Isn't that pretty close to you?


Jasper County is a long county north to south and Kirbyville is about 20 miles from me. I'm on much higher ground here in the north western part of the county. It's pretty flat down in that area and not good for the folks down there. We have a very good volunteer fire and emergency corps so I know they are helping as much as they can.
I hope everyone stays safe!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ARDMORE... LONE GROVE AND WILSON
AREAS...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN FALLING CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE ARDMORE... LONE
GROVE AND WILSON AREAS OF CARTER COUNTY. 4 TO AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE ARDMORE... LONE GROVE AND
WILSON AREAS. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION!


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARDMORE...LONE GROVE...HEALDTON...WILSON...DICKSON AND NORTHERN
LAKE MURRAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.
Quoting 295. ChillinInTheKeys:



Looks kinda stuck there now for the moment!

it wants to go ne but it cant yet
ridge won't let it
so its gonna have to go
a little more north still
300. etxwx
Quoting 290. AtHomeInTX:


Kinda unbelievable. I can't even remember ever hearing about flooding there. :(


I know! Even the worst hurricane storm surge flooding doesn't come that far north. The creeks are just so full I guess. And the rain keeps training over that area.
Quoting 296. sar2401:

Give it four hours and there will be a major improvement. Ex-Bill is also starting lose the outflow north. The whole mess is starting to weaken.


loss of daytime heating is killing it
should dwindle down till after mid day tomorrow again
Thunderstorms all over west central Georgia with many reports of trees and wires down, and several structures on fire from lightning strikes. There's a cell that may make it here with almost continuous lighting and 42,00 foot echo tops. It's about 7 miles away and just turned west so I might actually get something....in about 4 minutes now. Holding my breath.
Quoting 299. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it wants to go ne but it cant yet
ridge won't let it
so its gonna have to go
a little more north still


A blocking ridge can make things scary if it cant find its path!
Quoting 302. sar2401:

Thunderstorms all over west central Georgia with many reports of trees and wires down, and several structures on fire from lightning strikes. There's a cell that may make it here with almost continuous lighting and 42,00 foot echo tops. It's about 7 miles away and just turned west so I might actually get something....in about 4 minutes now. Holding my breath.

See, this is where I'd unplug...
305. yoboi
Quoting 300. etxwx:

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXC199-241-351-361-180315-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150618T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ORANGE TX-HARDIN TX-JASPER TX-NEWTON TX-
850 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY FROM
KIRBYVILLE TO BUNA AND EVADALE...


...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN HARDIN...SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 847 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KIRBYVILLE...BUNA AND EVADALE
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...VIDOR...KIRBYVILLE...EVADALE...CALL... DEWEYVILLE...BUNA...
MAURICEVILLE...ROSE CITY...PINE FOREST...LAKEVIEW...MT. UNION...
GIST...DEVILS POCKET...HARTBURG...TROUT CREEK...WEISS BLUFF...WRIGHTS
SETTLEMENT AND BLEAKWOOD.



How is Sam Rayburn looking??? are they going to release more water ??
Quoting 302. sar2401:

Thunderstorms all over west central Georgia with many reports of trees and wires down, and several structures on fire from lightning strikes. There's a cell that may make it here with almost continuous lighting and 42,00 foot echo tops. It's about 7 miles away and just turned west so I might actually get something....in about 4 minutes now. Holding my breath.
ya better stop ya might turn blue
I'm in this too. Thankfully my house is pretty high and no one has had to get out today. :/

NWS Lake Charles ‏@NWSLakeCharles 2m2 minutes ago
A Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for Kirbyville, Buna Evadale and surrounding areas until 10:15 PM.

NWS Lake Charles ‏@NWSLakeCharles 2m2 minutes ago
A Flash Flood Emergency means that life threatening flash flooding is occurring in these areas.


308. yoboi
Quoting 291. PensacolaDoug:




Deez..


Nice control Doug....
It looks like Bill has been sucking up alot of energy while over land from all those bodies of water.
Quoting 302. sar2401:

Thunderstorms all over west central Georgia with many reports of trees and wires down, and several structures on fire from lightning strikes. There's a cell that may make it here with almost continuous lighting and 42,00 foot echo tops. It's about 7 miles away and just turned west so I might actually get something....in about 4 minutes now. Holding my breath.

311. yoboi
Quoting 284. AtHomeInTX:

Wow! Please heed all warnings everyone!




Wow I went to Texas the other day when I crossed the Sabine the water was very high....Moderate flooding if this continues....
AtHomeInTX - are you in Jasper County as well? I think I've asked you before, and I want to say you're near Beaumont...but...I'm likely wrong.
That Upper Level Low in the eastern GOM has popped off some showers and T-storms in the Ga,Fla areas.

Nasty around here tonight, it's crazy how high pressure can be so strong that high temps in the mid 90's, a PW of 1.8-1.9, dewpoints in the mid to upper 70's, and CAPE of 3500-4500 wasn't enough to overcome the strong sinking from the ridge over this area.

Someone needs to remind this ridge it's the rainy season. We were doing great up until this past weekend. Now we've had weather more like Texas climatology for this time of year, and Texas is having more like Florida climatology.


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)
Lat: 27.91°NLon: 82.69°WElev: 3ft.


Fair

84°F

29°C
Humidity 82%
Wind Speed W 6 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.0 mb)
Dewpoint 78°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 95°F (35°C)
Last update 17 Jun 9:53 pm EDT



Current conditions at
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl. (KMCF)
Lat: 27.85°NLon: 82.5°WElev: 13ft.

Fair

84°F

29°C
Humidity 87%
Wind Speed Vrbl 5 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.2 mb)
Dewpoint 80°F (27°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 97°F (36°C)
Last update 17 Jun 9:59 pm EDT
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 1020 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 1016 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 816 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 913 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 1012 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 912 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 808 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 806 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 801 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 955 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 849 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 744 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 843 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 841 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
317. yoboi
If I recall correctly and I could be wrong... Sam Rayburn releases into Neches river and Toledo bend releases into Sabine river??
Quoting 312. LAbonbon:

AtHomeInTX - are you in Jasper County as well? I think I've asked you before, and I want to say you're near Beaumont...but...I'm likely wrong.


No you're not wrong. :) Just the Neches River between Beaumont And me. I'm in Orange County. Just to the south of Jasper County. Haven't been anywhere today. I'm sure the usual places are under water. But so far haven't heard of anything like what's going on up there happening here.
My eyes have been on TX & OK, and I wasn't paying much attention to the rest of the country. Looks like there's been weather elsewhere as well!


Link to SPC Reports
320. etxwx
Quoting 305. yoboi:



How is Sam Rayburn looking??? are they going to release more water ??

Sam Rayburn Reservoir
17 JUN 2015
Current Elevation 172.80
Normal Elevation 164.4 (Top of Power Pool)
Currently Releasing 10057 cfs
321. yoboi
Quoting 320. etxwx:


Sam Rayburn Reservoir
17 JUN 2015
Current Elevation 172.80
Normal Elevation 164.4 (Top of Power Pool)
Currently Releasing 10057 cfs


Wow not good...
322. etxwx
Quoting 317. yoboi:

If I recall correctly and I could be wrong... Sam Rayburn releases into Neches river and Toledo bend releases into Sabine river??

Yup. A list of the lakes in each basin can be found at the following links:
Neches River Basin
Sabine River Basin
The radar in post #310 looks like the heaviest rain may go around Sar, to the north and south. It looks like the part that would have gone directly over Eufala fell apart. Hmmm...is his rain shield holding?
Looks on radar like it's just about lifted away from me. Unfortunately, still looks like Jasper, Newton Counties and into Louisiana still got some heavy stuff coming. :(
Quoting 291. PensacolaDoug:




Deez..
busted my
326. yoboi
Quoting 322. etxwx:


Yup. A list of the lakes in each basin can be found at the following links:
Neches River Basin
Sabine River Basin


I have a few friends from Texas that I meet a couple times of year and duck hunt at Dam b...Very pretty country around there...
The situation across southern Oklahoma is not good. There are numerous reports of significant street flooding, with numerous people trapped in their homes and vehicles. Reportedly a two-year-old child has been swept away.

A mesonet in Ringling, Oklahoma recorded a sustained wind of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph, an hour ago.
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329. yoboi
Quoting 324. AtHomeInTX:

Looks on radar like it's just about lifted away from me. Unfortunately, still looks like Jasper, Newton Counties and into Louisiana still got some heavy stuff coming. :(


I am like 50 nautical miles away... I really cannot handle anymore rain.. The past 13 months I am over 42 inches above normal rainfall and with El Nino the fall & winter should be above normal also...
UGH!

The Weather Channel %u200F@weatherchannel 5m5 minutes ago
9:50pm CDT: #Tornado warning near Buna, TX -- which is also under a flash #flood emergency. #Bill

Barely sprinkling here in Stillwater, OK.



Sunset under the eaves of Bill

334. etxwx
Quoting 331. AtHomeInTX:

UGH!

The Weather Channel %u200F@weatherchannel 5m5 minutes ago
9:50pm CDT: #Tornado warning near Buna, TX -- which is also under a flash #flood emergency. #Bill

Good grief! Mr. Bill just needs to give it up already. Seriously...
Quoting 327. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The situation across southern Oklahoma is not good. There are numerous reports of significant street flooding, with numerous people trapped in their homes and vehicles. Reportedly a two-year-old child has been swept away.

A mesonet in Ringling, Oklahoma recorded a sustained wind of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph, an hour ago.


That is so sad about the loss of life.

As long as there are reports of sustained tropical storm force winds, low enough pressure and a well-defined closed center of low pressure, shouldn't this still be classified as tropical storm Bill, or re-upgraded? As of now, it is officially a tropical depression with confirmed sustained tropical storm force winds. Wind reports from last night and earlier today from near the coc were not impressive, at least the ones I checked. But now, it seems to have strengthened a tad, as predicted.

Edit, I just noticed the final advisory has been issued for Bill. Still, I consider it a tropical storm. Another Oklahoma land cyclone!
Quoting 334. etxwx:


Good grief! Mr. Bill just needs to give it up already. Seriously...


Couldn't agree more!
On the west side of Fort Worth, and still getting small bands of rain from Bill.
This is a static image I made, not a link. For current pressure map in mb, click the link below the graphic. All data maps update every 5 minutes. These readings are at stations across Oklahoma monitored and overseen by a consortium including OU and OSU.
"The Oklahoma Mesonet is a world-class network of environmental monitoring stations..."
Click link to read more from their "About us" page.

image credit: Ok mesonet
from OK mesonet description: "The Sea Level Pressure map displays the current pressure, reduced to sea level, in millibars. The pressure data are reduced to sea level because surface pressure is directly proportional to elevation. Locations at higher elevation (e.g., western Oklahoma) will always have a lower surface pressure than locations at lower elevations (e.g., eastern Oklahoma). By reducing all of the pressure readings to what they would be at sea level, it is possible to identify high and low pressure systems that move across the state. This map is updated every five minutes."

From the map link provided you can access all the mesonet maps - current conditions, rainfall, winds and more - all across the state.
Well, son of a....it's a good thing I didn't hold my breath too long. The storm split directly over me. The part that went north is dissolving and the part to the south continues to grow and now has a severe thunderstorm warning. I got nothing. Not even one drop of rain. And it's still 84 freakin' degrees!
South Texas certainly got a considerable amount of rain since mid-afternoon. This is the 6-hour period between 3 and 9 pm CDT:

Quoting 313. Patrap:

That Upper Level Low in the eastern GOM has popped off some showers and T-storms in the Ga,Fla areas.


Quoting 315. Patrap:




Someone enlighten me. When I look at the "purples" in the first picture down near south Texas, it looks like they are moving in a counter clockwise low pattern, and I think the wind "F's" (I have no idea what they are called) in the same area on the second picture show a slight similarity. Is this correct? Is this portion now completely by itself and spinning somewhat?
Quoting 339. sar2401:

Well, son of a....it's a good thing I didn't hold my breath too long. The storm split directly over me. The part that went north is dissolving and the part to the south continues to grow and now has a severe thunderstorm warning. I got nothing. Not even one drop of rain. And it's still 84 freakin' degrees!

See posts 323 and 310. We were keeping an eye on you. Saw the Eufala/Sar Super Shield hold :D
Quoting 335. HurrMichaelOrl:



That is so sad about the loss of life.

As long as there are reports of sustained tropical storm force winds, low enough pressure and a well-defined closed center of low pressure, shouldn't this still be classified as tropical storm Bill, or re-upgraded? As of now, it is officially a tropical depression with confirmed sustained tropical storm force winds. Wind reports from last night and earlier today from near the coc were not impressive, at least the ones I checked. But now, it seems to have strengthened a tad, as predicted.

Edit, I just noticed the final advisory has been issued for Bill. Still, I consider it a tropical storm. Another Oklahoma land cyclone!
What remains of Bill is a low pressure area. It's being maintained by baroclinic forcing over land and, except for the moisture load, is really no different than any low pressure system. Even the winds aren't unexpected in thunderstorms from a small but potent low. The low is starting to lose some definition now and ex-Bill is not looking anywhere near as healthy as it did last night at this time.
344. txjac
Quoting 340. LAbonbon:

South Texas certainly got a considerable amount of rain since mid-afternoon. This is the 6-hour period between 3 and 9 pm CDT:




I've been watching the action near Alice, have friends there.
Bunch of activity in NE Mexico as well.
Will all this just blow into the gulf? Or will it head north?

Where's Gro? Is this a blob?
Quoting 335. HurrMichaelOrl:



That is so sad about the loss of life.

As long as there are reports of sustained tropical storm force winds, low enough pressure and a well-defined closed center of low pressure, shouldn't this still be classified as tropical storm Bill, or re-upgraded? As of now, it is officially a tropical depression with confirmed sustained tropical storm force winds. Wind reports from last night and earlier today from near the coc were not impressive, at least the ones I checked. But now, it seems to have strengthened a tad, as predicted.

Edit, I just noticed the final advisory has been issued for Bill. Still, I consider it a tropical storm. Another Oklahoma land cyclone!

Although the NHC has stopped advisories, the Weather Prediction Center is still warning on the storm. They have it as a tropical depression, but yeah, it should be re-upgraded based on surface observations.

The WPC forecast maintains Bill as a tropical depression for another 72 hours; their last point as a tropical depression is over northern Kentucky.
Quoting 339. sar2401:

Well, son of a....it's a good thing I didn't hold my breath too long. The storm split directly over me. The part that went north is dissolving and the part to the south continues to grow and now has a severe thunderstorm warning. I got nothing. Not even one drop of rain. And it's still 84 freakin' degrees!


I totally feel your pain. Still hot and completely rain-less here.
Quoting 334. etxwx:


Good grief! Mr. Bill just needs to give it up already. Seriously...

He's kind of tenacious, isn't he?
Quoting 309. MeteorologistTV:

It looks like Bill has been sucking up alot of energy while over land from all those bodies of water.

Bill is like the Pied Piper of water vapor.. moisture across the CONUS is dropping its knitting and running off to aid him while he pretty much stalls.... didn't this wave originate in the Gulf of Honduras?
Quoting 327. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The situation across southern Oklahoma is not good. There are numerous reports of significant street flooding, with numerous people trapped in their homes and vehicles. Reportedly a two-year-old child has been swept away.

A mesonet in Ringling, Oklahoma recorded a sustained wind of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph, an hour ago.
Post season on this one ought to be interesting.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1006 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE INDICATED BY RADAR AND HAVE
BEEN REPORTED BY OBSERVERS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER CELLS...MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEWTON...KIRBYVILLE...MERRYVILLE...BON WEIR...BUNA...BURKEVILLE...
EVADALE...CALL...ROGANVILLE...TROUT CREEK...FARRSVILLE...OLD
SALEM...JUNCTION...WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT...BIVENS...MT. UNION...
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS...STRINGTOWN...DEVILS POCKET AND JAMESTOWN.
351. txjac
Quoting 346. HurrMichaelOrl:



I totally feel your pain. Still hot and completely rain-less here.


Have my fingers crossed for all of you rain deprived people.
Not a good feeling when you cant see relief.
Quoting 342. LAbonbon:


See posts 323 and 310. We were keeping an eye on you. Saw the Eufala/Sar Super Shield hold :D
I mean, really, here we have Georgia getting all kinds of storms, Texas getting flooded, and I can't one drop. That storm could not have made a closer approach and still missed. There was constant lightning for almost an hour as this thing dragged along and now it's gone. I could bite the head off a nail.
Quoting 343. sar2401:

What remains of Bill is a low pressure area. It's being maintained by baroclinic forcing over land and, except for the moisture load, is really no different than any low pressure system. Even the winds aren't unexpected in thunderstorms from a small but potent low. The low is starting to lose some definition now and ex-Bill is not looking anywhere near as healthy as it did last night at this time.


While I wouldn't upgrade it because I agree with you the cyclone is in a hybrid state officially from the WPC advisory it is still a tropical depression and not post tropical yet. They do not have post tropical transition until 96 hours from now. I find it odd that they are keeping it as tropical depression Bill so long as normally they NHC would have declared it post tropical before the transfer to the WPC or the WPC would have soon after.


FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 18/0300Z 33.7N 97.3W
12HR VT 18/1200Z 34.7N 96.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.0N 94.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.8N 93.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 20/0000Z 37.2N 91.1W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 84.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96HR VT 22/0000Z 40.0N 73.0W...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
0.4 inch since june 1st. WOW this is worse than 2009... I guess.
Quoting 349. Barefootontherocks:

Post season on this one ought to be interesting.


To be honest, the recent Ringling, OK observation surprises me a lot less than the observations in various locations in the heavy convection just north of the center as the storm advanced north across Texas. Almost all the aforementioned observations I checked had sustained winds between 8-15 mph.
Quoting 22. pablosyn:
It's my birthday. Congrads to me.
Feliz cumpleaños desde Panamá.

Quoting 339. sar2401:

Well, son of a....it's a good thing I didn't hold my breath too long. The storm split directly over me. The part that went north is dissolving and the part to the south continues to grow and now has a severe thunderstorm warning. I got nothing. Not even one drop of rain. And it's still 84 freakin' degrees!
Sar you know what that means http://xkcd.com/831/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1016 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CALL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRBYVILLE...CALL...TROUT CREEK AND BLEAKWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
If you click here and run your mouse over the Ringling mesonet station meteogram wind graph, you can see 40.9 mph sustained and 55.9 gust at 8:45 pm June 17, 2015.

(Good night, sleep tight. Gonna listen to the rain and hope sustained winds are not too strong here overnight - or whenever this phenomenon of nature arrives.)
Quoting 353. HurricaneKing:



While I wouldn't reupgrade it because I agree with you the cyclone is in a hybrid state officially from the WPC advisory it is still a tropical depression and not post tropical yet. They do not have post tropical transition until 96 hours from now. I find it odd that they are keeping it as tropical depression Bill so long as normally they NHC would have declared it post tropical before the transfer to the WPC or the WPC would have soon after.


FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 18/0300Z 33.7N 97.3W
12HR VT 18/1200Z 34.7N 96.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.0N 94.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.8N 93.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 20/0000Z 37.2N 91.1W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 84.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96HR VT 22/0000Z 40.0N 73.0W...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
$$

Because there's no reason to stop advisories. Bill has taken on some extratropical transitions since making landfall as is to be expected, but it's still largely tropical in nature, and it continues to maintain a well-defined and closed low-level circulation.
Quoting 355. HurrMichaelOrl:



To be honest, the recent Ringling, OK observation surprises me a lot less than the observations in various locations in the heavy convection just north of the center as the storm advanced north across Texas. Almost all the aforementioned observations I checked had sustained winds between 8-15 mph.
Nothing much surprises me any more - but I'm old.
;)

If I get what you're saying, you would have expected stronger wind than 8-15 mph.

(Good night for real.)
Quoting 361. Barefootontherocks:

If you click here and run your mouse over the Ringling mesonet station meteogram wind graph, you can see 40.9 mph sustained and 55.9 gust at 8:45 pm June 17, 2015.

(Good night, sleep tight. Gonna listen to the rain and hope sustained winds are not too strong here overnight - or whenever this phenomenon of nature arrives.)


I have the noise of the sprinkler hitting our window to drift off to tonight. Maybe three days from now, it can be rain.
Quoting 341. timtlu:



Someone enlighten me. When I look at the "purples" in the first picture down near south Texas, it looks like they are moving in a counter clockwise low pattern, and I think the wind "F's" (I have no idea what they are called) in the same area on the second picture show a slight similarity. Is this correct? Is this portion now completely by itself and spinning somewhat?
Those purple things are just the areas of deepest convection. The movement is an illusion caused by the growth of those cells as they expand to the north and east. The blue things are called wind barbs. They are mostly pointed to the SE, which is where the flow is coming from that's helping in the growth and longevity of the convection. There are a few that are 20 or 30 degrees different but that's just some local wind. If there was a low there those wind barbs would be forming a more or less perfect circle. The blob of thunderstorms is being fed by a remaining connection to the TD and flow from Mexico. It is not completely separated from the influence of the TD and all the warm water and leftover instability is causing the growth of the thunderstorms. It looks more impressive on the satellite than what's being seen on the ground. If you look over toward Alabama, I can tell you for sure that those storm didn't look at all impressive at my house. :-)
Quoting 335. HurrMichaelOrl:



That is so sad about the loss of life.

As long as there are reports of sustained tropical storm force winds, low enough pressure and a well-defined closed center of low pressure, shouldn't this still be classified as tropical storm Bill, or re-upgraded? As of now, it is officially a tropical depression with confirmed sustained tropical storm force winds. Wind reports from last night and earlier today from near the coc were not impressive, at least the ones I checked. But now, it seems to have strengthened a tad, as predicted.

Edit, I just noticed the final advisory has been issued for Bill. Still, I consider it a tropical storm. Another Oklahoma land cyclone!


The sustained tropical storm force winds were likely convection induced. Not saying this is for a fact. But when tropical storm Debby was just a weak tropical storm well west of Tampa, and it's wind field expected offshore, we had sustained winds over 45 and numerous gusts over 60 mph from strong thunderstorm squalls well east of it's technical wind field. The strong low level jet present in a low of that organization makes it easy for convection to mix down strong gusty winds.
Quoting 362. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Because there's no reason to stop advisories. Bill has taken on some extratropical transitions since making landfall as is to be expected, but it's still largely tropical in nature, and it continues to maintain a well-defined and closed low-level circulation.

I'd argue the storm is far enough into the post tropical structure to be considered post tropical. Remember the storm can still have a well defined circulation and be a post tropical cyclone. This storm is in the shade of gray area where one group of forecasters can look at it and go oh thats a post tropical cyclone while another can look at it and go oh thats still tropical enough to call it a tropical depression. It is of my opinion after looking at the data I would have already called it post tropical though it is on the fence.
Quoting 359. sunlinepr:


Dang, the clutter on radar is really terrible tonight.
369. etxwx
Here's to better days ahead minus Mr. Bill. Stay safe out there. G'nite all.
Any confirmed tornadoes yet with that Texas warning?
Quoting 367. HurricaneKing:


I'd argue the storm is far enough into the post tropical structure to be considered post tropical. Remember the storm can still have a well defined circulation and be a post tropical cyclone. This storm is in the shade of gray area where one group of forecasters can look at it and go oh thats a post tropical cyclone while another can look at it and go oh thats still tropical enough to call it a tropical depression. It is of my opinion after looking at the data I would have already called it post tropical though it is on the fence.
While TA is much more an expert than I am, I'd suggest that part of the reason for maintaining it as a TD is for continuity and public safety. Given the ongoing flooding, the last thing the NWS wants to do is start calling it "That low that used to be Bill". People will remain more alert in the face of a tropical depression than they will for a big bunch of rain, especially in an area that doesn't get many tropical cyclones.
Quoting 367. HurricaneKing:


I'd argue the storm is far enough into the post tropical structure to be considered post tropical. Remember the storm can still have a well defined circulation and be a post tropical cyclone. This storm is in the shade of gray area where one group of forecasters can look at it and go oh thats a post tropical cyclone while another can look at it and go oh thats still tropical enough to call it a tropical depression. It is of my opinion after looking at the data I would have already called it post tropical though it is on the fence.

It's subjective, but not too subjective IMO. Bill is not attached to any fronts. Phase diagrams show it is still a symmetric warm core. Although convection isn't over the center, activity continues to persist just northwest of it.
Quoting 371. sar2401:

While TA is much more an expert than I am, I'd suggest that part of the reason for maintaining it as a TD is for continuity and public safety. Given the ongoing flooding, the last thing the NWS wants to do is start calling it "That low that used to be Bill". People will remain more alert in the face of a tropical depression than they will for a big bunch of rain, especially in an area that doesn't get many tropical cyclones.

I'd agree more with that reasoning vs it's still more on the tropical side. The structure is starting to scream more post tropical at the moment because of its interaction with the synoptic scale environment. All in all it's going to be interesting watching it interact with frontal boundaries to its north in the fast zonal flow. I actually really enjoy watching the evolution of hybrid and or post tropical cyclones though my area of research over the next several years looks to be more focused on tropical wave activity.
Big Tornado on the ground in south dakota
Quoting 370. MeteorologistTV:

Any confirmed tornadoes yet with that Texas warning?


Not that I've heard. A light at the end of the tunnel? I hope so. They've had a rough one today. Hopefully ll the storms will continue to weaken.

First Alert ‏@FirstAlert12 9m9 minutes ago
The rain is starting to let up in Buna, additional flooding concerns shift to northern Jasper and Newton counties.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXC241-351-180356-
/O.CAN.KLCH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150618T0400Z/
JASPER TX-NEWTON TX-
1046 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND WEST CENTRAL
NEWTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
Quoting 357. JTDailyUpdate:


Sar you know what that means http://xkcd.com/831/

LOL. That's exactly what happened. At least those stick men know the pain. :-)
Quoting 341. timtlu:



Someone enlighten me. When I look at the "purples" in the first picture down near south Texas, it looks like they are moving in a counter clockwise low pattern, and I think the wind "F's" (I have no idea what they are called) in the same area on the second picture show a slight similarity. Is this correct? Is this portion now completely by itself and spinning somewhat?

These may help:

This page describes the notation on surface maps, including wind barbs.

This page shows fronts, and this one describes precipitation symbols.

Quoting 375. AtHomeInTX:



Not that I've heard. A light at the end of the tunnel? I hope so. They've had a rough one today. Hopefully ll the storms will continue to weaken.

First Alert %u200F@FirstAlert12 9m9 minutes ago
The rain is starting to let up in Buna, additional flooding concerns shift to northern Jasper and Newton counties.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXC241-351-180356-
/O.CAN.KLCH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150618T0400Z/
JASPER TX-NEWTON TX-
1046 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND WEST CENTRAL
NEWTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

Things will continue to wind down over the next 12 hours. Except for that stubborn patch of rain, the only other rain on the coast is down toward Brownsville, and they need the rain. I wouldn't say Bill is looking sickly yet but he is looking unhealthy. At least he was "only" a 60 mph TS. Imagine if he was a cat 3 instead. Wowsers!
Time: 2015-06-17 22:24 UTC
Jim Wells County
2 N Ben Bolt
Event: TORNADO
Source: emergency mngr
Remark: tornado briefly touched down near county road 470. caused tree damage and moved a large propane tank from one property to another.
Quoting 372. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's subjective, but not too subjective IMO. Bill is not attached to any fronts. Phase diagrams show it is still a symmetric warm core. Although convection isn't over the center, activity continues to persist just northwest of it.


It may not be officially attached to the frontal boundary to the north but it is interacting with it greatly. This is falling into the shade of grey research of how much interaction counts as being attached. Though having said that I agree it is not attached completely because the NAM shows it getting left behind only to be absorbed by the next stronger one. The satellite presentation also reveals the less than tropical nature with the cyclone embedded in a weakly cyclonic upper level environment and the mid and upper level circulations with Bill being to the North and West of the lower level circulation. Bills tail has also evolved into a moisture front (note I didn't say cold front) and the low level circulation though well defined is elongating slightly. The structure is hybrid though it may gain a more tropical nature in a day or so as the first frontal boundary impinging on its circulation should move away before the next absorbs it.

Anyway have a good night I need to get to campus early tomorrow to contact my advisor.
Quoting 379. Skyepony:

Time: 2015-06-17 22:24 UTC
Jim Wells County
2 N Ben Bolt
Event: TORNADO
Source: emergency mngr
Remark: tornado briefly touched down near county road 470. caused tree damage and moved a large propane tank from one property to another.
Different county and it happened five and a half hours ago.
Quoting 374. MeteorologistTV:

Big Tornado on the ground in south dakota
Where in South Dakota? It's a big state,
Quoting 344. txjac:



I've been watching the action near Alice, have friends there.
Bunch of activity in NE Mexico as well.
Will all this just blow into the gulf? Or will it head north?

Where's Gro? Is this a blob?

Not sure. I would think it would head north.

Hopefully your friends have fared okay. Alice got quite a bit today, didn't they.
RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 1.48
BENTONVILLE 1.43

...OKLAHOMA...
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
PAULS VALLEY MUNI ARPT 1.69
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51
MCALESTER REGIONAL ARPT 1.42

...TEXAS...
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
SEALY 0.3 WNW 8.09
ALICE INTL ARPT 7.11
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
MANOR 5 WSW 7.01
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW 6.12
PORT LAVACA 0.9 NW 5.56
HILL COUNTRY VILLA 1 SE 4.67
ROCKPORT 4.36
INEZ 1.8 WNW 4.36
WACO 0.8 N 3.91
AUSTIN 5 E 3.72
NEW BRAUNFELS 3 WNW 3.00
KINGSVILLE NAS 2.90
RANDOLPH AFB 2.65
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.51
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 2.43
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
FORT HOOD AAF 2.32
DENTON MUNI ARPT 2.28
HOUSTON 2.09
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT 1.72
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 1.57
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.42


TS Bill RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 7 pm CDT
Courtesy WPC 10 pm Update
Quoting 383. LAbonbon:


Not sure. I would think it would head north.

Hopefully your friends have fared okay. Alice got quite a bit today, didn't they.

But then again, in looking at the radar, it doesn't seem to be headed in that direction...
@ canehater1 - doesn't it seem like their reported totals are on the low side?
Quoting 373. HurricaneKing:


I'd agree more with that reasoning vs it's still more on the tropical side. The structure is starting to scream more post tropical at the moment because of its interaction with the synoptic scale environment. All in all it's going to be interesting watching it interact with frontal boundaries to its north in the fast zonal flow. I actually really enjoy watching the evolution of hybrid and or post tropical cyclones though my area of research over the next several years looks to be more focused on tropical wave activity.
I think you both have good meteorological points, but I really think this isn't only being decided on that basis. I lean toward post-tropical but I also understand why the WPC wants to maintain it as a TD. Compared to first naming Bill, this is more of a judgement call. Having spend a lot of years in emergency management, I can kind of imagine what the reception from the EMA's would have been to dropping the name.
WPC in its 10pm update is still calling Bill A TD.


Link
Quoting 371. sar2401:

While TA is much more an expert than I am, I'd suggest that part of the reason for maintaining it as a TD is for continuity and public safety. Given the ongoing flooding, the last thing the NWS wants to do is start calling it "That low that used to be Bill". People will remain more alert in the face of a tropical depression than they will for a big bunch of rain, especially in an area that doesn't get many tropical cyclones.


How long does Bill have to stay in the same place before being designated 'stalled'?
Rainfall, Storm Totals

Quoting 386. LAbonbon:

@ canehater1 - doesn't it seem like their reported totals are on the low side?
I don't think so. The really heavy rain has been concentrated in just a few relatively small areas, Ganado being a good example. Houston and Victoria have reported consistently low (for this storm) totals all day. If they were higher in the major metro areas we'd be having wall to wall coverage. I'm not seeing that, which leads me to believe it's the small towns that got it.
Quoting 386. LAbonbon:

@ canehater1 - doesn't it seem like their reported totals are on the low side?


I am not sure if these are actual rain gauge totals or radar estimates, but the EL Campo/Ganado area is just NNE of
Matagorda Bay where Bill made landfall and those areas SW of Houston got the worst of it.
Quoting 389. redwagon:



How long does Bill have to stay in the same place before being designated 'stalled'?
It's not really stalled but it's moving awful slow. It's bumping up against a front to the north so it can move too fast or it would get absorbed. I really believe storms have some built in mechanism that makes them avoid death, and I think that's what's happening with Bill. There's probably a better explanation though. :-)
Quoting 392. canehater1:



I am not sure if these are actual rain gauge totals or radar estimates, but the EL Campo/Ganado area is just NNE of
Matagorda Bay where Bill made landfall and those areas SW of Houston got the worst of it.
Those are all measured. They don't use radar estimates for those reports. Some of them are cocorahs sites so they may not be completely updated but I imagine that any site that got a lot of rain has probably already reported it.
Quoting 360. sunlinepr:



Wow this thing is still at the coast
The highest rainfall total in Texas may actually be off the coast East of Corpus Christi where persistent

heavy rains were all last night and today.


Link
Quoting 394. sar2401:

Those are all measured. They don't use radar estimates for those reports. Some of them are cocorahs sites so they may not be completely updated but I imagine that any site that got a lot of rain has probably already reported it.

When NWS mentions totals that have fallen in a flash flood warning, are these measured, radar estimates, or both? Earlier today the NWS referenced an area with up to 15 inches, yet it's not reflected on that list.

And on that list, it seems some areas (like Oklahoma) are really under reported. But then again, I'm not cognizant of how often these get reported into WPC either.
Quoting 396. canehater1:

The highest rainfall total in Texas may actually be off the coast East of Corpus Christi where persistent

heavy rains were all last night and today.


Link
It looked that way to me all day. We see that frequently in Gulf off Alabama and the Panhandle. All the heavy rain stays out over the Gulf and much less gets to the coast. It looked like the same mechanism today in Texas, thank goodness.
399. Tygor
We had quite a night in San Antonio thanks to the remnants of Bill. Even though he is heading Oklahoma, we received about 5.5" in about a two hour time frame in about a 3 mile swath just north of the city. Craziest flooding I've ever seen with my own eyes and scary situation in rush hour traffic.
Quoting 397. LAbonbon:


When NWS mentions totals that have fallen in a flash flood warning, are these measured, radar estimates, or both? Earlier today the NWS referenced an area with up to 15 inches, yet it's not reflected on that list.

And on that list, it seems some areas (like Oklahoma) are really under reported. But then again, I'm not cognizant of how often these get reported into WPC either.
Totals for flash flood warnings are almost always radar indicated. They get some Mesonet reports but they are usually too scattered to give a picture of the rain. My experience is that, even with semi-tropical rain, radar estimates tend to err on the side of the highest possible total in the area. Most of Oklahoma has had little or no rain. Bill is making its way in Oklahoma now and those rain totals will go up by morning. The rainbands are definitely getting that swiss cheese look now, and even the rain on the north coast is starting to lift north and diminish some. I think we're not done but at least cresting the summit.
Well, folks, I'm going to head off to bed. Hope everyone has a safe and sound evening.

And people, let's keep the kids away from the ditches! These are some of the most heartbreaking stories with every storm.

Good night, all.
9 killed in Bible study at Charleston Church.

Gunman still on the loose. Manhunt underway.

This occurred very near presslords locale.
South Plains radar loop. Sabine River along the Texas/Louisiana border doesn't need the rain

as it has been in flood stage for awhile. Also of note is the area of rain over S. Texas, which appears to

be getting left behind and moving slowly E.

Link
Quoting 403. canehater1:

South Plains radar loop. Sabine River along the Texas/Louisiana border doesn't need the rain

as it has been in flood stage for awhile. Also of note is the area of rain over S. Texas, which appears to

be getting left behind and moving slowly E.

Link
That area in south Texas is being fed by a disturbance in Mexico that's fading so the blob will go with it. I hope they actually got some rain down there since it's been dry. That persistent area of rain on the north coast is finally lifting out. The mainstem rivers are going to be a problem for the next couple of days but at least it won't be flash flooding. Bill is still there but not looking very peppy. Not over with yet but looking a lot better.
NWS Norman says Wild Bill's remnants have been moving east along Red River for some hours now. Power's out here since midnight and it's kind of spooky. Rain still falling. One mesonet station in southern OK had recorded 9.5ish" by 11:30 pm. Not so much here. 3-4 maybe. Radar est is 5". Ping...
Quoting 402. Patrap:

9 killed in Bible study at Charleston Church.

Gunman still on the loose. Manhunt underway.

This occurred very near presslords locale.


Horrific, heart-breaking tragedy. Thoughts and prayers to the victims' families and the community.
Rain is starting to come down here.. Red River can't take much if any...

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Winn Parish in north central Louisiana...
Grant Parish in north central Louisiana...
Sabine Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Natchitoches Parish in northwestern Louisiana...

* until 630 am CDT

* at 1236 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the
warned area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen. Flash
flooding is expected to begin as more rainfall is
approaching from the southwest.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Natchitoches... Winnfield... many... Zwolle... Colfax... Campti...
Montgomery... Converse... Allen... Oak Grove... Pleasant Hill...
Florien... Provencal... Natchez... Clarence... Pollock... Dry Prong...
Goldonna... Huxley and Dodson.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in
the warned area and isolated higher amounts to three inches..

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.


Lat... Lon 3117 9360 3151 9371 3160 9384 3185 9388
3184 9344 3193 9342 3189 9328 3198 9313
3211 9315 3215 9318 3215 9231 3162 9238
3162 9237 3148 9220 3148 9223 3139 9266
3152 9272 3135 9295 3136 9339 3117 9359


06
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
123 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC215-180730-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-150618T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HIDALGO TX-
123 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY...

AT 120 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...FRONTAGE
ROADS OF INTERSTATE 2 AND ALONG BUSINESS 83...
MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...SAN JUAN...ALAMO...HIDALGO...EDINBURG
...UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS PAN AMERICAN...SOUTH TEXAS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...PHARR CIVIC CENTER...HIDALGO COUNTY COURTHOUSE...SAN JUAN
MUNICIPAL COURT...SAN JUAN PUBLIC LIBRARY...CORNERSTONE REGIONAL
MEDICAL CENTER...MCALLEN CITY HALL AND MCALLEN POLICE DEPARTMENT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 1.48
BENTONVILLE 1.43

...OKLAHOMA...
NEWPORT 13.07
BURNEYVILLE 10.09
RINGLING 8.27
SULPHUR 7.09
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
PAULS VALLEY MUNI ARPT 1.69
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51
MCALESTER REGIONAL ARPT 1.42

...TEXAS...
MONTAGUE 12.50
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
ALICE INTL ARPT 9.03
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
SEALY 0.3 WNW 8.09
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
MANOR 5 WSW 7.01
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW 6.12
PORT LAVACA 0.9 NW 5.56
HILL COUNTRY VILLA 1 SE 4.67
ROCKPORT 4.36
INEZ 1.8 WNW 4.36
WACO 0.8 N 3.91
AUSTIN 5 E 3.72
NEW BRAUNFELS 3 WNW 3.00
KINGSVILLE NAS 2.90
RANDOLPH AFB 2.65
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.51
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 2.43
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
FORT HOOD AAF 2.32
DENTON MUNI ARPT 2.28
HOUSTON 2.09
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT 1.72
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 1.57
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.42

Rainfall totals as of 4am WPC advisory on TD Bill

Link


SE ridge breaking down a little?
412. MahFL
It will be interesting how the MCS to the NW of TD Bill will interact with him.

Needs to dry out here in Florida. So wet outside all the creepy crawlies are coming indoors, there's mushrooms and mold everywhere I look outside. Even days when it doesn't rain, it's still wet because of dewpoints soaring into the 80s. The heat index hit 118F yesterday by my PWS' reckoning, thanks to the high dewpoint.
414. MahFL
Quoting 405. Barefootontherocks:

NWS Norman says Wild Bill's remnants have been moving east along Red River for some hours now. Power's out here since midnight and it's kind of spooky. Rain still falling. One mesonet station in southern OK had recorded 9.5ish" by 11:30 pm. Not so much here. 3-4 maybe. Radar est is 5". Ping...


Actually Bill is still a TD, not remnant, the WPC is still calling Bill a TD.
Quoting 402. Patrap:

9 killed in Bible study at Charleston Church.

Gunman still on the loose. Manhunt underway.

This occurred very near presslords locale.
Wow. A kid, basically [21?]. Apparently the pastor was politically vocal about police brutality and had successfully lobbied to enforce body camera requirements for on-duty officers. Crazy to see this so many years after the Birmingham church bombing ...
416. MahFL
Quoting 411. tampabaymatt:



SE ridge breaking down a little?


It seems so, my rain chances are 30 % today, the west coast sea breeze is supposed to become dominant.
Quoting 412. MahFL:

It will be interesting how the MCS to the NW of TD Bill will interact with him.


That MCS, iirc, has already sparked at least one tornado. It's looking healthier than Bill now....
418. MahFL
Quoting 353. HurricaneKing:



While I wouldn't upgrade it because I agree with you the cyclone is in a hybrid state officially from the WPC advisory it is still a tropical depression and not post tropical yet. They do not have post tropical transition until 96 hours from now. I find it odd that they are keeping it as tropical depression Bill so long as normally they NHC would have declared it post tropical before the transfer to the WPC or the WPC would have soon after.


FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 18/0300Z 33.7N 97.3W
12HR VT 18/1200Z 34.7N 96.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.0N 94.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.8N 93.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 20/0000Z 37.2N 91.1W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 84.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96HR VT 22/0000Z 40.0N 73.0W...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
$$


You missed a comma in your line containing hybrid state, the WPC is NOT calling Bill a hybrid.
sunny.skies.e.cen.florida
The Guardian: The Pope's encyclical on climate change – live reaction and analysis


Journalists and guests follow the official presentation of Pope Francis’s encyclical, a collection of principles to guide Catholic teaching, entitled ‘Laudato Si’. Photograph: VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images

Nicholas Stern, the economist and author of an influential report on climate change, said the encyclical was of “enormous significance”.

"The publication of the Pope’s encyclical is of enormous significance. He has shown great wisdom and leadership. Pope Francis is surely absolutely right that climate change raises vital moral and ethical issues. It is poor people around the world who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as an intensification of extreme weather events. And the decisions that we make about managing the risks of climate change matter not only for us, but also for our children, grandchildren and future generations.

He added:

"Moral leadership on climate change from the Pope is particularly important because of the failure of many heads of state and government around the world to show political leadership.

And here’s what the Pope himself says about world leaders’ failure to act on climate change and environmental problems:

"Many of those who possess more resources and economic or political power seem mostly to be concerned with masking the problems or concealing their symptoms, simply making efforts to reduce some of the negative impacts of climate change.

More >>

ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI’ OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME

Quoting 413. Forsaken:

Needs to dry out here in Florida. So wet outside all the creepy crawlies are coming indoors, there's mushrooms and mold everywhere I look outside. Even days when it doesn't rain, it's still wet because of dewpoints soaring into the 80s. The heat index hit 118F yesterday by my PWS' reckoning, thanks to the high dewpoint.


What? What part of FL are you located at?
Quoting 411. tampabaymatt:



SE ridge breaking down a little?


The past few days, expected rain totals along the Ohio river valley and mid-Atlantic states from Bill have shifted southward. My guess is that might be part of the cause. Interestingly enough, expected rainfall totals over the 5-day forecast have been upped for my area (NYC metro).
Nice derecho, Nebraska.
Hilarious moment last night in the Tampa Bay Rays-Washington Nationals game. Started pouring in the top of the 8th and a Rays player got a home run off a bunt due to a few throwing errors by the Nats. It looked like a tropical downpour while the play was happening.
Quoting 419. islander101010:

sunny.skies.e.cen.florida


It looks like you haven't been able to use your spacebar for about a month. Maybe time to buy a new keyboard?
Quoting 424. tampabaymatt:

Hilarious moment last night in the Tampa Bay Rays-Washington Nationals game. Started pouring in the top of the 8th and a Rays player got a home run off a bunt due to a few throwing errors by the Nats. It looked like a tropical downpour while the play was happening.


Not to be "that guy" or anything, but it isn't an official homerun if the batter totaled 4 bases due to errors. I haven't seen the play in question, but my guess is it was scored a single with 2nd, 3rd, and home reached by error.

:D

Is it possible to give an error to weather impacts? 3-4-1 E-rain.
Quoting 425. LongIslandBeaches:



It looks like you haven't been able to use your spacebar for about a month. Maybe time to buy a new keyboard?


I think he's confusing the blog for twitter?
Quoting 426. LongIslandBeaches:



Not to be "that guy" or anything, but it isn't an official homerun if the batter totaled 4 bases due to errors. I haven't seen the play in question, but my guess is it was scored a single with 2nd, 3rd, and home reached by error.

:D

Is it possible to give an error to weather impacts? 3-4-1 E-rain.


You're right, but I had to describe it somehow. If I said something like "he totaled 4 bases on the play", that would just sound weird :).
429. yoboi
Quoting 420. Xandra:

The Guardian: The Pope's encyclical on climate change – live reaction and analysis


Journalists and guests follow the official presentation of Pope Francis’s encyclical, a collection of principles to guide Catholic teaching, entitled ‘Laudato Si’. Photograph: VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images

Nicholas Stern, the economist and author of an influential report on climate change, said the encyclical was of “enormous significance”.

"The publication of the Pope’s encyclical is of enormous significance. He has shown great wisdom and leadership. Pope Francis is surely absolutely right that climate change raises vital moral and ethical issues. It is poor people around the world who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as an intensification of extreme weather events. And the decisions that we make about managing the risks of climate change matter not only for us, but also for our children, grandchildren and future generations.

He added:

"Moral leadership on climate change from the Pope is particularly important because of the failure of many heads of state and government around the world to show political leadership.

And here’s what the Pope himself says about world leaders’ failure to act on climate change and environmental problems:

"Many of those who possess more resources and economic or political power seem mostly to be concerned with masking the problems or concealing their symptoms, simply making efforts to reduce some of the negative impacts of climate change.

More >>

ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI’ OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME




I never would have thought that when I go to confession that I would have to explain my fossil fuel consumption...
TORNADO WARNING
LAC013-015-017-031-181230-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0060.150618T1150Z-150618T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
WESTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 649 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STONEWALL...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF
SHREVEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHREVEPORT...STONEWALL...GLOSTER...REEDS STORE...ROBSON...MC
DADE...SLIGO...CASPIANA...FRIERSON...TAYLORTOWN... ELM GROVE...
KINGSTON AND KICKAPOO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
TORNADO WARNING
LAC015-017-031-181230-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0059.150618T1147Z-150618T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
647 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 647 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER STONEWALL...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF
SHREVEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
EASTWOOD AROUND 725 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
TAYLORTOWN...FORBING...KORAN...ROBSON...SLIGO...B ODCAU AND RED CHUTE.
Good Morning. The effects from Bill's low continue to impact the Central US at the moment with rain, flooding, and a current tornado warning in Western LA:


Quoting 427. tampabaymatt:



I think he's confusing the blog for twitter?

I rather like that he can communicate in 3 to 7 words what the rest of us need entire sentences and paragraphs for. It's kind of a skill, actually :)



Quoting 429. yoboi:



I never would have thought that when I go to confession that I would have to explain my fossil fuel consumption...

That's what you get for not thinking
Quoting 420. Xandra:

The Guardian: The Pope's encyclical on climate change – live reaction and analysis

Katharine Hayhoe: The pope’s encyclical on climate change – will evangelicals care?

[...]

So, will the Pope’s encyclical affect evangelicals?

For those who place their politics and ideology before their faith, it will not change many minds. As I discuss here, the roots of climate denial lie in our ideology rather than our faith.

But for any who take the Bible seriously, it must change minds. The encyclical is not proposing any new doctrine; it is not preaching any new message. It is simply reminding us that at the foundation of Christianity is one simple word: LOVE. And that word cannot fail to resonate in the hearts of all who believe, regardless of their denomination.

Keeper...in about 9 days,stay alert up there............................................. ...
438. MahFL
Quoting 425. LongIslandBeaches:



It looks like you haven't been able to use your spacebar for about a month. Maybe time to buy a new keyboard?


He does that on purpose.
Confirmed rains total for yesterday for our ranch just 8 miles SE of Cuero 15 inches of rain, and this was confirmed with 2 different gauges. You can see our low water bridge in my portrait picture. This flows into the Guadelupe River, which is at major flood level over the next few days in Victoria. Thanks, Jeni
Lots of factors are going to happen at once to create a massive pattern change not just across the US but the Globe as a whole. For a change the expected epic SOI crash will cause the patterns to change almost simultaneously as a big Ridge will pop out West while troughing develops across the East. Also there are expected to be increased Easterlies across the Caribbean due to strong high pressure across the MDR extending across the Caribbean basically shutting down any chance of getting anything going.

Euro
On the Pope's Encyclical, it will not impact the world's evangelicals, but he is siding with the science. As such, and with 1 billion Catholics worldwide, the head of a major church is telling their followers that global warming and climate change is an important issue that impacts everyone around the globe. That is a good move as Catholics also vote and will hopefully lean towards-on politicians and policymakers in their respective countries that will support climate change related legislation and policies.

In terms of the tragedy in South Carolina last evening, we know from history that the horrible things that men do to one another outweigh what Mother Nature does; She does not discriminate.
Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Europe Weather ‏@WSI_EuroEnergy 2h2 hours ago
Antarctic sea ice was the highest on record for a time in May 2015 since 1979. Now it is closer to previous years.
Still raining a little here in central OK, with light wind earlier.

24 hr rainfall - the highest total is at Newport mesonet station

image credit: Ok mesonet
Looks like West Mustang Creek in Texas hit a record stage. This is in the area between Victoria and Houston that saw the highest rain totals:

Quoting 413. Forsaken:

Needs to dry out here in Florida. So wet outside all the creepy crawlies are coming indoors, there's mushrooms and mold everywhere I look outside. Even days when it doesn't rain, it's still wet because of dewpoints soaring into the 80s. The heat index hit 118F yesterday by my PWS' reckoning, thanks to the high dewpoint.


What part of Florida are you in because that's nothing what it's like in NW Florida. We're bone dry and haven't had rain in weeks, temps everyday hit 90 or higher if you're inland. Control burns on the Eglin Reservation have smoke everywhere in town due to the light winds and dry conditions. We need rain bad.
Quoting 423. slavicthunder:

Nice derecho, Nebraska.

Quoting 442. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Europe Weather ‏@WSI_EuroEnergy 2h2 hours ago
Antarctic sea ice was the highest on record for a time in May 2015 since 1979. Now it is closer to previous years.



Also related to climate change issues: I posted this link last week.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/05/antarc tic-researchers-ponder-challenges-posed-increasing -sea-ice

Scientists working in Antarctica are feeling the impact of climate change in ways the public might find surprising. Although global warming is causing Arctic ice to melt and glaciers around the world to shrink, the problem in Antarctica is that the sea ice surrounding the continent is increasing and now hampering ship navigation and resupply operations. This week, scientists and logistics experts from the 30 nations working on the continent are meeting in Hobart, Australia, to exchange ideas on coping with the sea ice challenge.

The underlying mechanism is fairly well understood, says Tony Worby, a sea ice specialist at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. "We know that the changing Antarctic sea ice extent is very largely driven by changes in wind,” he says. “In turn, we know those changes are driven by the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere as well as increasing greenhouse gases at the surface." The new wind patterns blow Antarctic sea ice away from the continent and then more ice forms close to shore. This doesn't occur in the Arctic because the ocean is hemmed in by land masses. And "it's quite a lot windier around Antarctica than in the Arctic," Worby says.

The area covered by Antarctic sea ice has been growing roughly 1.2% each decade since 1979. Last September, it reached a record 20 million square kilometers surrounding the 14 square kilometer continent. The combined 34 million square kilometers of ice at the end of the austral winter is more than 3.5 times the area of the United States.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 353. HurricaneKing:



While I wouldn't upgrade it because I agree with you the cyclone is in a hybrid state officially from the WPC advisory it is still a tropical depression and not post tropical yet. They do not have post tropical transition until 96 hours from now. I find it odd that they are keeping it as tropical depression Bill so long as normally they NHC would have declared it post tropical before the transfer to the WPC or the WPC would have soon after.


FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 18/0300Z 33.7N 97.3W
12HR VT 18/1200Z 34.7N 96.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.0N 94.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.8N 93.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 20/0000Z 37.2N 91.1W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 84.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96HR VT 22/0000Z 40.0N 73.0W...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
$$



6.6.2.2 Issuance Criteria. The WPC will issue public advisories after NHC discontinues its advisories on subtropical and tropical cyclones that have moved inland in the conterminous U.S. or Mexico, but still pose a threat of heavy rain and flash floods in the conterminous U.S. or Mexico. The last NHC advisory will normally be issued when winds in an inland tropical cyclone drop below tropical storm strength, and the tropical depression is not forecast to regain tropical storm intensity or re-emerge over water. Therefore, WPC will only handle tropical depressions or remnants. WPC advisories will terminate when the threat of flash flooding has ended.


6.6.2.2
Somehow I suspect the Epac season will be just liked the hyped up 2013 atlantic season. it would be no surprise if the atlantic season would be above average after all. The MDR is beginning to show signs of warming while the heat in the Epac seems to have stabilized and some cooling is evident. we have gone over a month in the EPAC season with 3 named storms. The upper levels in the atlantic is a little more moist than last season, with the SAL not as prominent. maybe there could be surprises.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
451 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...

ALZ045-046-048>050-181800-
/O.CON.KBMX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150619T0000Z/
MACON-BULLOCK-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
451 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...NEAR 105 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS...IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015


GAZ036>039-049>051-058>062-069>076-079>086-090>09 8-102>113-181800-
/O.NEW.KFFC.HT.Y.0003.150618T1600Z-150619T0000Z/
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-MORGAN-GREENE-TAL IAFERRO-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-J ONES-BALDWIN-
WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWF ORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SC HLEY-MACON-PEACH-
HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER -SUMTER-DOOLY-
CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGO MERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...
SWAINSBORO...WARNER ROBINS...DUBLIN...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...
CORDELE...VIDALIA
325 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA...GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT BENNING TO THOMASTON TO ATHENS.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...105-107

* IMPACTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT
ILLNESSES IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AT LEAST
105 DEGREES AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM AND
STAY OUT OF DIRECT SUNSHINE. REMEMBER...THE
ELDERLY...VERY YOUNG...AND PEOPLE WITH HEART CONDITIONS ARE MOST
AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT. FRIENDS...RELATIVES...
AND NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.

&&

$$