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Tropical Storm Bill Moving Ashore Over Texas

By: Jeff Masters 1:48 PM GMT on June 16, 2015

Tropical Storm Bill is pushing ashore over the Central Texas coast, bringing torrential rains and sustained winds near 60 mph. At 7:45 am CDT, the Brazos 538 oil rig off the Central Texas coast recorded sustained winds of 41 mph gusting to 64 mph. While heavy flooding rains are the main threat from Bill, a few weak tornadoes will also be be possible today, particularly in the Houston metropolitan area. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is giving a 40% chance that they will issue a tornado watch for the area today. Radar out of Corpus Christi and satellite images showed that Bill's heavy thunderstorms increased markedly in areal coverage and intensity on Tuesday morning, and its a good thing the storm did not have another twelve hours over water, or it would have become a hurricane. Bill's landfall in Texas makes the U.S. two-for-two so far for landfalls this hurricane season: Tropical Storm Ana, the first named storm of the season, hit South Carolina back on May 10. The last time the first two named storms of the season both made landfall in the U.S. was in 2001, when Tropical Storm Allison hit Texas and Tropical Storm Barry hit the Florida Panhandle. Bill is the fourteenth named storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of June since 1950 (thanks to Phil Klotzbach for this stat.)


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Bill near landfall in Texas as seen from the Corpus Christi radar at 8:29 am CDT June 16, 2015.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Bill as seen from the International Space Station on Monday afternoon, June 15, 2015. Bill had not yet been named at this time, but was generating sustained winds of 45 mph over the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: Scott Kelly.

Bill a major flood threat
A huge area of flash flood watches stretches from Central Texas to Illinois in anticipation of the arrival of tropical moisture from Bill. Bill poses its most serious flood threat along a swath from eastern Texas into eastern Oklahoma, where up to 8" of rain is possible through Wednesday. Both states just experienced the wettest single month in their history during May, and soils remain near saturation. Houston lies at the edge of the predicted heaviest swath of rain, and Dallas is squarely in the bulls-eye. Steering currents will be weak as the system rotates clockwise around a strong, hot dome of high pressure over the Southeast late in the week, and Bill's remnants are expected to dump as much as five inches of rain over portions of Missouri and Illinois on Thursday and Friday.


Figure 3. Projected five-day precipitation totals from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, for the period from 8:00 am June 16 to June 21, show the expected track of Bill around the high-pressure center in the southeast U.S. Image credit: NWS/WPC.

We'll have an update on Bill this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Bill Storm Cloud
Tropical Storm Bill Storm Cloud
As the sun was setting, one lone storm cloud from newly christened Tropical Storm Bill was moving closer. At the time the photo was taken it was over Rockport TX about 25 miles north of Corpus Christi TX, my location. The storm was topping at 33,000 feet and moving southwest at approx. 26 mph when photographed. As it moved closer to Corpus Christi Bay it fell to 16,000 feet and the SW movement slowed to 18 mph. It fizzled at is moved southwest.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 383. StormTrackerScott:



Yup ridge is usually over Texas instead. Ryan Maue is tweeting that next week may even be hotter across the SE US. Hard to imagine it can get hotter than what it is now.


This is what I'm hearing, going to need a bigger...pool...well a pool to begin with I don't own one. Need to hire Quinn before I swim laps in the ocean

Quoting 442. CaneFreeCR:

It's interesting to me how many of the AGW skeptics hereabouts are posting about the heat -- but of course there is no connection whatever! It's just weather. :-)


wie heb jet het over?
Quoting 500. sar2401:

Good illustration of why people pay the money and take the risk to live at the beach. 99% of the time, the weather is as nice as anyone could want. The other 1% can get a little hairy, but I can guarantee I'll have more insufferable days of heat than they will tropical cyclone days at the beach. I just wish people's choice to live near the water didn't affect my insurance rates


That's the way she goes. Link
503. beell

18Z NAM 4km Precipitation Accumulation -through Wednesday, 4PM CDT.
Quoting 424. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

seems Intellicast is promoting Dr. masters on there page to visit

welcome visitors


Intellicast is owned by TWC. He's been featured on there before, as Intellicast and WU slowly but inexorably move closer to one entity.
Quoting 461. LargoFl:




Probably the best it's ever looked, and it seems like it's going to get worse
Quoting 455. HurricaneAndre:


Eastern Gulf is favorable. I wonder if it's our turn.
I live in Fort Lauderdale haven't had anything since wilma 10 years ago, maybe its our year… (hopefully)
Quoting 502. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's the way she goes. Link
The coastal counties are right about actuarial data showing wind losses inland being higher overall than that experienced at the beach. What they are conveniently overlooking is that inland losses tend be scattered, spread throughout the year, and rarely have high losses a single event. Losses from hurricanes are exactly the opposite, and they have the potential to bankrupt an insurance company. That's why they want higher rates at the coast. That, and they are a bunch of thieves. :-)
Quoting 497. redwagon:



That's perplexed me all my life, too, how a pond that dried up wound up with fish jumping in it not
too very long after the rains re-filled it. Word is, migrating birds (ducks, great blue herons, etc.) wade
through/sit on fish egg nests and then take off for your newly-full pond, sit down and release the eggs.



some fishes bury themselves in the mud deep within the lake bottom just prior to drying up then when rains come they come out sort of a hibernating effect also fish larvae does same thing once they know there is a prolong period of no rains on the way will do same thing then they wait till the rains rtn
Quoting 499. ColoradoBob1:


OOOOOH..........NOOOOOOO!!!!
Bill has begun a turn toward the north, and will likely lift north or north north east over night. However, the forward speed may drop slightly more during this time period. It would appear the worst of the rain event for Houston and the surrounding areas will be overnight tonight. Going to be watching it very carefully, alot of flooding is already occurring in the western counties.
Quoting 499. ColoradoBob1:


O no, not Sluggo, he,ll be mean to me, O nooooo

Quoting 494. hurricanewatcher61:

What in the world happened to Florida's rainy season?


It was working pretty well until the ridge built into the southeast this weekend. We had 6 inches of rain last week.
Quoting 506. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




The south part of the storm is mean looking

(not sure if it can be considered an eyewall, otherwise I'll say eyewall)
Magnolia/Tomball: had one really good and heavy shower that dumped quite a bit in a short time, left a lot of standing water. Since then it's been fairly calm with just light rain, and having just looked, there's a small patch of blue sky at the moment. Looks like the folks in Palacios are getting it pretty heavy, however.
We may get a 10 day streak of 100F+ highs. Today is day 3. I do love heat but this is exceptional. Drinking lots of water. The pool is bathwater. No waves to speak of with this pattern. Hope we get rain. Plants are suffering.

Quoting 470. win1gamegiantsplease:



Crazy how just being a few more miles away from the coast affects temperature. Currently 94 degrees where I am, yet just a few miles in Wrightsville Beach it's 89....Myrtle Beach is also at 90 yet Conway is reading 100.

And poor eastcoastsurf, the forecast discussion mentioned inland SC seeing triple digits even next week.

Here's tomorrow:

Raining hard in South Houston, nice winds too.
Quoting 507. Camerooski:

I live in Fort Lauderdale haven't had anything since wilma 10 years ago, maybe its our year%u2026 (hopefully)
hopefully?
k den
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-089-239-321-481-170145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0085.150616T2251Z-150617T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 548 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN BAY CITY...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...EDNA...GANADO...LA
WARD...VAN VLECK...PIERCE...LOLITA...MARKHAM...BOLING-IAGO...
HUNGERFORD...CORDELE...EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...
DANEVANG...LOUISE AND MIDFIELD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.


&&

LAT...LON 2931 9659 2948 9613 2905 9579 2881 9656
2912 9686

$$

!KP!
Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some fishes bury themselves in the mud deep within the lake bottom just prior to drying up then when rains come they come out sort of a hibernating effect also fish larvae does same thing once they know there is a prolong period of no rains on the way will do same thing then they wait till the rains rtn

And there's the fast way: buy 200 2-4" fingerlings of assorted bass, perch, crappie, catfish cost $1-3 each.
My 1/2 ac landscaped pond is overflowing through the culvert into the ravine and will last a while now.

Ming Tsai (Simply Ming Chef) in Australia was grilling the creek Marron, a deep purple/black crawfish
nearly as big as a chicken lobster... maybe I can get Aussie Storm to smuggle me a roe-laden female :)
Just started pouring/gusting here. Pretty good line coming through.

Southwest Brazoria county- we're now getting the strongest wind gusts from little Bill all day.
Quoting 525. Sweeny:

Southwest Brazoria county- we're now getting the strongest wind gusts from little Bill all day.


Getting windier in Southern Harris County too.
Actually getting more steady rain now here in Pearland. Only off and on mostly today between here and work which is 11 miles SE of me.
Stay safe everyone in the path of Bill.

What was the old saying, hide from the wind and run from the water? I can't quite remember.

Quoting 528. Dakster:

Stay safe everyone in the path of Bill.

What was the old saying, hide from the wind and run from the water? I can't quite remember.




Are the wildfires anywhere near you?
Quoting 517. HaoleboySurfEC:

We may get a 10 day streak of 100F+ highs. Today is day 3. I do love heat but this is exceptional. Drinking lots of water. The pool is bathwater. No waves to speak of with this pattern. Hope we get rain. Plants are suffering.




Yea the high is really putting a lid on any kind of wind, sea breezes are helping to give cover at the coast in the early evenings but that's as far as it's gone. Lumberton just up 95 has also seen three straight 100 F highs, they had six in 2007.
Quoting 507. Camerooski:

I live in Fort Lauderdale haven't had anything since wilma 10 years ago, maybe its our year%u2026 (hopefully)

Been 10 years for me too in the FL Panhandle.
Had 1 inch of rain so far here in north Austin, still waiting to see how bad it will get.
Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some fishes bury themselves in the mud deep within the lake bottom just prior to drying up then when rains come they come out sort of a hibernating effect also fish larvae does same thing once they know there is a prolong period of no rains on the way will do same thing then they wait till the rains rtn



I apologize for not having a reference for what I am about to say, as it does sound a bit outlandish... but somewhere I read a tale, given as old-timer observed fact, that birds actually scoop up fertile fish eggs and transport them to other bodies of water.

It sounds just wild, but there is a lot of literature out there that is indicating that animals are much more conscious than we have traditionally supposed. On the other hand, I remember reading a fishing story years ago about a fellow that had been fishing in a 'secret' remote Canadian fishing pond , of several acres in size, that he discovered. The (magazine... so... doubts enter). After a week of fishing, he hadn't caught a thing, and, disgusted he swore off fishing forever. On leaving the area, he spoke with a local, who told him that the pond had never been stocked. If the story is true, then that would belie the bird-transport theory. But then again, I simply can't imagine a large fresh water Canadian pond not to be teeming.
Comment 442..

But its the Carolinas..remember, it aint global..thats when the red map is shown..or did you forget your rules?
535. MahFL
Bill is definitely acting like he is still over water. Convection is building.
Is BIll moving N/NE now?
537. txjac
Quoting 530. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yea the high is really putting a lid on any kind of wind, sea breezes are helping to give cover at the coast in the early evenings but that's as far as it's gone. Lumberton just up 95 has also seen three straight 100 F highs, they had six in 2007.


I feel for all of you under the Texas death ridges ..know how you are suffering
538. MahFL
Sheesh, cloud tops are cooling.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

MOC015-029-085-131-141-170400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150617T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BENTON MO-CAMDEN MO-HICKORY MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN MILLER...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 635 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA HAVE
CAUSED FLOODING OF COUNTY AND LOCAL ROADS IN AND AROUND THE WARNING
AREA. SEVERAL ROADS AROUND WARSAW...VERSAILLES AND GRAVOIS MILLS
WERE WATER COVERED OR IMPASSABLE.


RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...ELDON...LAURIE AND
VERSAILLES. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE V AT DEER CREEK NEAR HASTAIN...
ROUTE DD AT KNOBBY CREEK 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EDWARDS...
ROUTE WW AT ARCHER CREEK NORTHEAST OF LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS...
ROUTE O NEAR LAURIE...
ROUTE Z AT BLUE SPRING CREEK SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9262 3843 9240 3834 9240 3797 9334
3828 9333 3854 9276

$$

HATCH
Quoting 527. BrazoriaMan:

Actually getting more steady rain now here in Pearland. Only off and on mostly today between here and work which is 11 miles SE of me.

Yeah this major rain event has been a "moderate wind event"... so far...
Quoting 533. MontanaZephyr:




I apologize for not having a reference for what I am about to say, as it does sound a bit outlandish... but somewhere I read a tale, given as old-timer observed fact, that birds actually scoop up fertile fish eggs and transport them to other bodies of water.

It sounds just wild, but there is a lot of literature out there that is indicating that animals are much more conscious than we have traditionally supposed. On the other hand, I remember reading a fishing story years ago about a fellow that had been fishing in a 'secret' remote Canadian fishing pond , of several acres in size, that he discovered. The (magazine... so... doubts enter). After a week of fishing, he hadn't caught a thing, and, disgusted he swore off fishing forever. On leaving the area, he spoke with a local, who told him that the pond had never been stocked. If the story is true, then that would belie the bird-transport theory. But then again, I simply can't imagine a large fresh water Canadian pond not to be teeming.


Many Canadian and Alaskan ponds are dead .. no fish they freeze solid during the winter !! not deep enough for life to survive in the water ..

Fish eggs are very sticky and will stick to ducks and other wading birds legs/feet and when they fly to another pond/lake when they land the eggs come off and lakes can have fish from that ..
Looks NNE now, great and I got to work tonight.
Lightning strike count and KDP values are both increasing where the cloudtops are cooling just east of the center. A core rainfall event may be about to begin.
They weren't messing around when they said that Bill would go through the Brown Ocean effect, wow.
Our company is running a seminar in the western part of Houston along the Energy Corridor. No word of any cancellations so I assume that things are reasonable in the western part of town? I hope so...for everybody's sake.
HRRR says that Bill will be getting its eye soon.

547. MahFL
Going up a lot now...CenterPoint Energy reporting 6719 Customers without lights.
I don't think there's anything measurable here on the east coast.
Quoting 514. Jedkins01:



It was working pretty well until the ridge built into the southeast this weekend. We had 6 inches of rain last week.
549. txjac
Quoting 545. slavicthunder:

Our company is running a seminar in the western part of Houston along the Energy Corridor. No word of any cancellations so I assume that things are reasonable in the western part of town? I hope so...for everybody's sake.


Over here there hasnt been tons of rain, maybe a little over an inch. The night is still young though so you'll have to keep an eye on it. A lot depends on the roads you have to travel to get here ...
Is it weakening or strengthening with the eye?
Quoting 549. txjac:



Over here there hasnt been tons of rain, maybe a little over an inch. The night is still young though so you'll have to keep an eye on it. A lot depends on the roads you have to travel to get here ...

Only showing .65" on my weatherstation at the moment here in Richmond, TX.

look at that little spec in the Caribbean. Repeat? But more East?
Quoting 544. Articuno:

They weren't messing around when they said that Bill would go through the Brown Ocean effect, wow.


Appearance and improvement in some structure doesn't count. Would have to see lowering of pressure and rising of winds. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but NHC discounting it at this point.
Quoting 550. drg0dOwnCountry:

Is it weakening or strengthening with the eye?
I don't know that it really has an eye but it will slowly weaken over the next 48 hours. This is not like the typical TS though, where it whizzes inland and it's gone. Bill will hang around and see if there are any good lookin Texas girl storms about before he pulls out. :-)

look at that little spec in the Caribbean. Repeat? But more East?
556. MahFL
Very cold cloud top.



Quoting 549. txjac:



Over here there hasnt been tons of rain, maybe a little over an inch. The night is still young though so you'll have to keep an eye on it. A lot depends on the roads you have to travel to get here ...
Bill, so far, fingers crossed and all, has not been as wet as it could have been. There's still quite a bit of energy offshore, and that is still to be felt in some areas. It looks like flooding is going to be more localized than widespread, thank goodness. It's really amazing when you look at a eastern US radar picture though. Bill is already pouring clouds and rain north into Oklahoma and all the way east into Kentucky as it joins up with the existing front. "Lil" Bill has turned out to be not so "lil". :-)
Quoting 552. HurricaneAndre:


look at that little spec in the Caribbean. Repeat? But more East?


As with the little spec that grew into Bill, can only follow and see if it grows. Most micro specs, 90 +% never form. Never know though. Conditions looking far more ripe in Eastern Gulf now. Long rang patterns and shear tendency way too far out to have any real clue though.
559. MahFL
Holy cow...Bill is exploding...

Raw U.S. Coast Guard Aerial Video of Tropical Storm Bill.
Link

Quoting 553. DeepSeaRising:



Appearance and improvement in some structure doesn't count. Would have to see lowering of pressure and rising of winds. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but NHC discounting it at this point.


I'm probably the biggest amateur on this website, all I do is make assumptions, I apologize, it's a learning process for me.
.
Quoting 546. VAbeachhurricanes:
HRRR says that Bill will be getting its eye soon

That just seems so counter-intuitive to what Bill's doing.. meandering NE and opening back
into a wave. In any event, this was a great class on how a TS can perform over a new 'brown ocean'.
Hopefully there's a a 24-hr movie of this for study at leisure at one of the .edu sites, Wisconsin or
Colorado maybe.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 26m26 minutes ago

Flooding rains: 3-day WPC 00z forecast updated for June 17th
Maximum 8'' near DFW, 4-6'' OKC.
Quoting 558. DeepSeaRising:



As with the little spec that grew into Bill, can only follow and see if it grows. Most micro specs, 90 +% never form. Never know though. Conditions looking far more ripe in Eastern Gulf now. Long rang patterns and shear tendency way too far out to have any real clue though.
The only "little speck" is off the coast of Columbia. It may be a weird season, but there haven't been many storms make it here that started near Columbia. The other "little speck" off Honduras is the island of Roatan. I'd also point out there were about 25 "little specks", and even some pretty big specks, shown before something finally happened. Not a great verification percentage.

Quoting 561. Articuno:



I'm probably the biggest amateur on this website, all I do is make assumptions, I apologize, it's a learning process for me.


I echo that mate. Enjoy what you add. Surely this could have a millibar drop and wind increase. Effect could be starting.
Hurricane Hazel is another example of Brown Ocean effect, right?

Quoting 470. win1gamegiantsplease:



Crazy how just being a few more miles away from the coast affects temperature. Currently 94 degrees where I am, yet just a few miles in Wrightsville Beach it's 89....Myrtle Beach is also at 90 yet Conway is reading 100.

And poor eastcoastsurf, the forecast discussion mentioned inland SC seeing triple digits even next week.

Here's tomorrow:


This graphic shows temps for 0600 UTC (2 am EDT/1 am CDT). Thought the temps looked high for that time, so I went here (NWS Graphical Forecasts), but the graphics were 'reversed', in that clicking or hovering over the a.m. times showed p.m. forecast temperature graphics:



In the time it took me to snip/upload/type this up, the 2 am graphic has been corrected, but the 5 am still shows the forecast for 5 pm.

I tried to backtrack to find out more info on win1's posted graphic, but wasn't familiar enough with the source site to figure out if the same discrepancy is there.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-animated .gif

On visible satellite it actually looks like Bill has strengthened and expanded his CDO over the last couple of hours...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



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* Scientists find methane in Mars meteorites

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!!! A third of the world's biggest groundwater basins are in distress



!!! Global freshwater consumption crossing its planetary boundary

Toxic algal blooms behind Klamath River dams create health risks far downstream

* Remote cave study reveals 3000 years of European climate variation

Squid inspires camouflaging smart materials

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* Alaska wildfires spread amid windy, hot weather

White House secures $4 billion in investments for clean energy

*** Renewables could dominate world electricity by 2030

* Bird Flu Sends Egg Prices Up, but Slowing Demand Prevents Shortages I've noticed a dozen eggs are up 50 cents.

Jeb Bush knocks Pope on climate change push

NASA's Dawn Probe Focuses on a Different Mystery Spot on Ceres





Kenya: Mombasa Draws Up Master Plan to Combat Worsening Flooding

South Africa: 'Extreme Downpour' Leads to Flooding in Cape

*** NASA: Laser Focus (video)

Photos: Thousands evacuated as Indonesia's Mount Sinabung erupts
Quoting 561. Articuno:



I'm probably the biggest amateur on this website, all I do is make assumptions, I apologize, it's a learning process for me.

Pffft...no way are you the 'biggest amateur' here. Lots of us are learning. I often feel like I'm in the dark as some of the discussions fly by me :-)
573. beell
Quoting 553. DeepSeaRising:



Appearance and improvement in some structure doesn't count. Would have to see lowering of pressure and rising of winds. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but NHC discounting it at this point.


This is obviously the work of the "Polar Vortex".
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bill was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 97.0 West. Bill is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (21 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today with a turn to the northeast on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 3 to 6
inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri. Isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Texas and Oklahoma.
These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force winds are occurring in
rainbands to the east of the center. These gusts should subside
today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts...1 to 2 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast to the
southeast of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of east-central
Texas through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven