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El Niño Continues to Ramp Up

By: Bob Henson 8:31 PM GMT on June 11, 2015

The latest updates from NOAA (see PDF) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology confirm that the El Niño event that began in earnest this spring continues to build. NOAA reports that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the closely watched Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific were 1.2°C above average last week, well into the range associated with moderate El Niño events (+1.0°C to +1.5°C). Based on another marker, the Multivariate ENSO Index, this El Niño event is already into the “strong” category. All of the Niño monitoring regions had SSTs of at least 1.2°C above average last week, making for the most widespread oceanic warmth since the landmark El Niño event of 1997–98. Policymakers and investors are already taking note of the potential implications of the intensifying El Niño for agriculture and the economy.
 

Figure 1. Sea-surface temperatures on June 8 show the hallmark of El Niño, with a band of warmer-than-average temperatures, extending along the equator across the central and eastern tropical Pacific and poleward near the South American coast. Two animations showing the emergence of this El Niño pattern can be found at Tom Yulsman’s ImaGeo blog (Discover Magazine). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
 
 
Computer models are in firm agreement that El Niño conditions will strengthen further during the latter part of 2015. All eight of the international models tracked by BOM show Niño3.4 readings of 1.5°C or higher by October (see Figure 2), and several exceed 2.0°C, suggesting that the strongest event since 1997–98 may well be in the cards. Some models predicted that a significant El Niño would emerge in mid-2014, but that didn’t happen, largely because the atmosphere failed to respond to oceanic shifts that often kick off El Niño. This time, the atmosphere and ocean are much more in sync, so we can put more trust in the current model outlooks—especially now that we’re past the “spring predictability barrier” that makes early-year forecasts of El Niño so tough. In today’s update, NOAA is calling for a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the northern fall of 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the winter of 2015-16.
 

Figure 2. Projections of sea-surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W) for October 2015 in terms of departure from average (degrees C), as compiled from eight international climate models and released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in May. Each model’s projection on the graph above is based on the average of multiple runs in an ensemble. The threshold for El Niño conditions for Australia is 0.8°C above average, as shown on the chart, while the NOAA threshold (not shown) is 0.5°C. Image credit: BOM.
 
 
A wet footprint that’s already shown up
El Niño appears to have played a role in record-smashing rainfall over the south-central states last month, the main factor behind the single wettest month in U.S. history. Satellite imagery averaged for May shows a band of enhanced moisture sweeping from the Niño regions of the central and eastern tropical Pacific into the southern United States (see Figure 3). That upper-level moisture was pushed along by an strong subtropical jet stream and juxtaposed with unusually rich low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Kevin Trenberth (National Center for Atmospheric Research) sees a probable link between El Niño and the May rains. “It doesn't mean El Niño caused the pattern, but it did change the odds and helped it persist,” Trenberth told me. “Then the global warming component, whereby all SSTs are higher, adds to the moisture, and this is what helps break the records.”
 

Figure 3. Departures from the average amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the period May 11 through June 9, 2015, as measured by satellite. Negative values denote outgoing radiation being blocked by clouds and precipitation. Strongly negative values (magenta) can be found over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, where El Niño’s oceanic signature is based. An extension of low OLR values runs through Mexico into the western half of the United States. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.
 
 
What will summer bring us?
On average, El Niño’s impacts on U.S. weather are much stronger in winter than in summer. As NOAA’s Anthony Barnston puts it in a recent ENSO Blog post, “while El Niño is the 800-pound gorilla in winter forecasts in the U.S., it is more like a tame, 6-pound Chihuahua in summer.” Barnston cites two reasons for this:
 
—El Niño affects climate in midlatitudes by adding energy to the Hadley circulation, a vast loop that sends tropical air upward and poleward and higher-latitude air downward and equatorward. The Hadley loop is weaker in the half of the world where summer is occurring, due to the reduced equator-to-pole temperature contrast. This means an El Niño event has less ability to torque climate in the summer hemisphere.
 
—Weaker north-south temperature gradients in summer also mean that the circulation patterns driving midlatitude weather are weaker and smaller-scale than they are in winter, again reducing the ability of El Niño to influence things.
 
The main tendency in U.S. weather during El Niño summers, albeit a weak one, is for above-average precipitation. In particular, the southwestern states may continue to see the effects of a Northeast Pacific hurricane season amped up by El Niño (which produces favorable atmospheric conditions in that basin) as well as by very warm SSTs. Already, remnant moisture from Hurricanes Andres and Blanca has led to periods of unusually high amounts of water vapor across the Southwest and bursts of rainfall that are uncommon in late spring for places like Phoenix, and today brought the birth of Tropical Storm Carlos (see this morning’s update from Jeff Masters. Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, El Niño will boost the odds of drought in Indonesia and parts of Australia over the next several months (see Figure 4). Toward the end of 2015, El Niño’s influence on U.S. climate should grow, and there’s a reasonable shot at a wetter-than-average winter in southern California, assuming that model forecasts of a strong El Niño prove accurate. For more on how the balance between the subtropical and polar jet streams is affected by El Niño events of various intensities, see this explainer by Daniel Swain at California Weather Blog.
 

Figure 4. Temperature and precipitation patterns that are typical of El Niño conditions during northern summer. Image credit: climate.gov, based on originals from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
 
 
Looking further out: La Niña in 2016-17?
It’s far too early for dynamical models to peer beyond the current El Niño event, but if history is any guide, there’s a better-than-average chance of La Niña developing sometime in 2016. El Niño events usually last just one year—two at most—so the current event should be on the wane by early- to mid-2016, as suggested by the model guidance in Figure 2. When a significant El Niño pattern weakens, there can be a rebound effect that allows cooler-than-average water to upwell into the eastern tropical Pacific and revitalized trade winds to push it westward, leading to a La Niña event. NOAA’s historical database of Niño3.4 readings, which goes back to 1950, shows that most El Niño events of at least moderate strength were followed by La Niña conditions within a year of their demise. A classic example is the strong 1998-99 La Niña that quickly followed the powerful 1997-98 El Niño. That said, each El Niño event is different, and as every smart investor knows, past performance is no guarantee of future results. We’ll just have to wait and see if this El Niño—which took the better part of a year to get rolling—proves equally quirky on its way out the door.
 
Bob Henson

El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the quick update! Looks like we could be in for a wet night in the FL Panhandle if that cluster of storms in the Gulf holds together, it's heading right at us!

hurr.season2015=pillow
Quoting 78. 69Viking:

Looks like we could be in for a wet night in the FL Panhandle if that cluster of storms in the Gulf holds together, it's heading right at us!

I hope it holds together!
maybe a super El Niño this year!!!
New
Quoting 4. opal92nwf:


I hope it holds together!



So do I, my yard and patio plants need the rain, they do so much better when it rains compared to me just watering them.
Thanks for the blog. Looks quite strong already

The “unusually high amounts of water vapor across the Southwest” is continuing to affect us along the Colorado Front Range. This should be a dry time of year with wild fires the primary concern, instead it continues to be very moist. It looks like a very wet next 24 hours is starting to get under way. The forecast map is starting to look like some type of Christmas art:



And the radar is filling in.

Quoting 5. hurricanes2018:

maybe a super El Niño this year!!!
nope
Thanks for the Update, Bob....
Warmest day of the year so far, here in Scotland today - a sweltering 74 F !
Thanks for the excellent breakdown as to the current El Nino event and potential effects downstream. Will note that after 3 consecutive years being "stuck" in enso neutral conditions, a slingshot back to La Nina in 2016 would not be a surprise. It would also provide a good base year next Atlantic hurricane season to see whether we have truly reached the end of the current active Atlantic multi-decadal cycle; a La Nina year producing lower numbers would pretty much put the nail in the coffin on that one. Will finally note, provided that we do in fact still have an El Nino pattern going into Spring (but in a transition), that waning El Nino Springs produce the most active spring tornado seasons for the US. Lots of issues to look at as this El Nino strengthens globally and in the US.
Quoting 10. tampabaymatt:




They may have to bump those totals up in the Florida Panhandle, SE Alabama & South Georgia.
Currently 95 and feels like 100.I have avoided going outside as much as possible because of the horrid conditions.

Not sure if irony but the list that we're using in the Atlantic this year also coincided with a el nino (2009) and if we have a la nina next year the list will be the same as 2010 which went from a el nino to La nina.

A matter of fact besides 2003 this list in the past 18 years have coincided with a el nino and some of the strongest (1997) while the list next year will coincide with some of the worst hurricanes in the Atlantic (1992,1998,2004,2010(Igor))
Last two days until August for the Super Rapid Scan Loops


Also noticed the PECAN group has put up a blog on WU.
Tropical Storm CARLOS

4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015
Location: 14.1°N 100.3°W
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 19. nrtiwlnvragn:

Last two days until August for the Super Rapid Scan Loops


Also noticed the PECAN group has put up a blog on WU.


The new blog says "This entry has been removed.".
Quoting 21. ChillinInTheKeys:



The new blog says "This entry has been removed.".


Don't know what to say, it works for me. Also shows up on the blog index.
R.I.P. Dusty the Million Dollar Elbow
Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

Currently 95 and feels like 100.I have avoided going outside as much as possible because of the horrid conditions.

Not sure if irony but the list that we're using in the Atlantic this year also coincided with a el nino (2009) and if we have a la nina next year the list will be the same as 2010 which went from a el nino to La nina.

A matter of fact besides 2003 this list in the past 18 years have coincided with a el nino and some of the strongest (1997) while the list next year will coincide with some of the worst hurricanes in the Atlantic (1992,1998,2004,2010(Igor))


Probably worse tomorrow. Dewpoints will be higher. GFS shows no refreshing cool surges through the 15 days with a trickle of less hot air on Sunday/Monday and another next weekend but overall slight warming trend. A nice cool canadian high coming off Hudson Bay.. nope!


>
Quoting 11. ndscott50:

The “unusually high amounts of water vapor across the Southwest” is continuing to affect us along the Colorado Front Range. This should be a dry time of year with wild fires the primary concern, instead it continues to be very moist. It looks like a very wet next 24 hours is starting to get under way. The forecast map is starting to look like some type of Christmas art:



And the radar is filling in.



Be a lot more like Christmas with SNOW :-)

Quoting 23. nrtiwlnvragn:

R.I.P. Dusty the Million Dollar Elbow


I saw Dusty wrestle many times at the WPB Auditorium. He was quite the showman. RIP
NWS has a high of 101 next Tuesday.Much be some glitch going on down at the center...
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

Warmest day of the year so far, here in Scotland today - a sweltering 74 F !



thats nothing 74 is vary nic temper
Carlos


Sunday looks like the hottest day overall for the Southeast, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Portions of South Carolina may exceed the triple digit mark. :(

Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

Currently 95 and feels like 100.I have avoided going outside as much as possible because of the horrid conditions.

Not sure if irony but the list that we're using in the Atlantic this year also coincided with a el nino (2009) and if we have a la nina next year the list will be the same as 2010 which went from a el nino to La nina.

A matter of fact besides 2003 this list in the past 18 years have coincided with a el nino and some of the strongest (1997) while the list next year will coincide with some of the worst hurricanes in the Atlantic (1992,1998,2004,2010(Igor))


Wow...
I bet STS feels vindicated now that El Nino is ramping up and the good Doc Masters is posting about it.
SIR CHRISTOPHER LEE PASSES AWAY MY FRIEND DIE TODAY!!
Tropical Storm CARLOS will be a hurricane in the next 48 hours from now
Quoting 22. nrtiwlnvragn:



Don't know what to say, it works for me. Also shows up on the blog index.


The June 1st blog is up but the "new" blog says "This entry has been removed.".
Quoting 34. Dakster:

I bet STS feels vindicated now that El Nino is ramping up and the good Doc Masters is posting about it.
Its not the fact no one believed el nino was coming.It was just the constant hollering that the upcoming one was going to Surpass 1997.
I live in Indiana and have a pain syndrome that is worse in cold weather. I'm hoping for a warmer than average winter, while praying for those that may experience the very worst. (During the 1997-98 El-Nino, I did my Chistmas shopping in jeans and a t-shirt!)
Quoting 28. GeoffreyWPB:



I saw Dusty wrestle many times at the WPB Auditorium. He was quite the showman. RIP


Vague attempt to keep this on topic....the WPB Auditorium aka "the Leaky TeePee".

Saw Dusty Rhodes there as well as some great concerts...Neil Diamond, Steppenwolf, Eagles, Three Dog Night, Willie, etc., etc. Dusty put on a show as good as any other entertainer I ever saw.
Thanks Mr. Henson, it will be intresting to see.
Oh man I wish my low could hit 74!
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

Warmest day of the year so far, here in Scotland today - a sweltering 74 F !
Quoting 17. ChillinInTheKeys:



They may have to bump those totals up in the Florida Panhandle, SE Alabama & South Georgia.


And while model guidance is forecasting heavy rains in parts of OK, and the plains/great lakes, it's not as much as the WPC with those massive bullseyes. It's funny the how the WPC often shows massive bullseyes of rainfall that are often more than the average monthly rain in the areas they forecast, which just doesn't happen over such large real estate, so consistently.
Well, with the rainfall update, we ended up getting 2.97 here yesterday, which is the largest event at my gauge so far this summer rainy season. We've had 6.41 June to date so far including the total yesterday, add that to the 4.95 in the later part of May, and we've had 11.36 over the past few weeks. Everything looks nice and Florida green, lot's of water everywhere.

I'm a little bit concerned for southeast Florida, after already having drought this year going into the rainy season, this is probably the driest start to the rainy season I've ever seen them have. Usually Southeas Florida is being soaked with heavy rain events by now. Yet they've missed all the good rain events up here in Central Florida for the most part.
Quoting 30. Tazmanian:




thats nothing 74 is vary nic temper
Thank you Taz !!!!
Quoting 24. georgevandenberghe:



Probably worse tomorrow. Dewpoints will be higher. GFS shows no refreshing cool surges through the 15 days with a trickle of less hot air on Sunday/Monday and another next weekend but overall slight warming trend. A nice cool canadian high coming off Hudson Bay.. nope!


>
The "wedge" has thrown a wrench in forecast in the past so I'm hoping it can make a re-appearance.It looks like mid to upper 90's through next week with perhaps Sunday being the exception.


Looks like some unsettled weather from the EPAC crossing over Guatemala and Belize into the GOH, shear is very high there though.
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Its not the fact no one believed el nino was coming.It was just the constant hollering that the upcoming one was going to Surpass 1997.


I know. That part was a little annoying... At least the little boy has appeared. Now let's see if he makes a mess of things now. As long as he keeps hurricanes away from South Florida and secondary the remainder of populated areas (sorry, I am biased) I will be happy. S
Tornado Watch for Central Illinois until midnight .. another storm tonight it appears .. 88 degrees presently with storms building in northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa ..

2-3k were still with out power at noon today from the storms last night in the area .. Marshall County Airport received over 4 inches of rain in the storms ..
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Its not the fact no one believed el nino was coming.It was just the constant hollering that the upcoming one was going to Surpass 1997.

Link
Quoting 34. Dakster:

I bet STS feels vindicated now that El Nino is ramping up and the good Doc Masters is posting about it.



Oh great, he's going to say "told you so" for the rest of the year. :/
Quoting 44. Jedkins01:

Well, with the rainfall update, we ended up getting 2.97 here yesterday, which is the largest event at my gauge so far this summer rainy season. We've had 6.41 June to date so far including the total yesterday, add that to the 4.95 in the later part of May, and we've had 11.36 over the past few weeks. Everything looks nice and Florida green, lot's of water everywhere.

I'm a little bit concerned for southeast Florida, after already having drought this year going into the rainy season, this is probably the driest start to the rainy season I've ever seen them have. Usually Southeas Florida is being soaked with heavy rain events by now. Yet they've missed all the good rain events up here in Central Florida for the most part.


Not a drop.
Not wanting to be a cherry picker here but this is from the blog heading.

"—El Niño affects climate in midlatitudes by adding energy to the Hadley circulation, a vast loop that sends tropical air upward and poleward and higher-latitude air downward and equatorward. The Hadley loop is weaker in the half of the world where summer is occurring, due to the reduced equator-to-pole temperature contrast. This means an El Niño event has less ability to torque climate in the summer hemisphere.

While we all want rain in the western areas, we also want a ballance over the other zones.
so:-
We have record floods in the Texas areas and also huge downpours in Europe.

I personally, as always am interested in what happens to the "Ice," as this is what will bring about the big changes. The Niño will pass but its effects will be felt for a long time; possibly too long a time?

I was in New England yesterday, unusually warm for the time of year and very humid! From Maine down the coast to NY.

Here in Spain today massive floods from thunder storms are being a problem in the central areas around Madrid.

As I said the ice is the linchpin for all this and I dont personally think as I have said before that this El Niño is that much of an anomoly, its what it might bring about with the distribution of heat which is the interesting future! Or Feature of it.
Apologies for the spelling today.
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

Warmest day of the year so far, here in Scotland today - a sweltering 74 F !

I had plans to visit Scotland just about now, but an unexpected (and otherwise very positive) event forced me to put it off. Maybe next year. Sounds like I'm missing out on some very pleasant weather, though.
In my opinion!
Based on the map at the begining of the blog entry I am still more concerned about the heat in the gulf of Alaska than the warming of the El Niño!
Then again this is only a personal opinion.

Link
Quoting 52. Grothar:



Not a drop.

The forecast does not look too promising for the Orlando area either. Granted, we have had a few good rain storms so far this month, but it hasn't been the traditional rainy season pattern and it does not look like it will be over at least the next 5 days. I hope we shake this pesky pattern of troughs/fronts/lows and whatever else is messing with our weather. I had a feeling today's 50% chance of rain would be a total bust.
sad news in WWE word


Dusty Rhodes passes away

Link
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Its not the fact no one believed el nino was coming.It was just the constant hollering that the upcoming one was going to Surpass 1997.

I remember that winter, being amazed at how mild it was, with a low of 32F the whole winter. That reading was taken in an open carport, so it was probably 1-2 F colder than that. Now I would never site a thermometer in such a skewed setting.

Nowadays, that is the average winter here near the city. We had more potent severe weather events during that decade too, by far. The only really notable spring or fall severe storm I can even recall over the past decade is the March 31, 2011 event.
Quoting 673. Jedkins01:

I don't think this will be correct, I think it's assuming below normal precip due to ridging, but most model guidance have pretty high moisture in place during the extended. And model guidance tends to under due rain chances in high moisture under ridging.

Quoting 674. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Jedkins!, I agree with you and to add to the high moisture content, let's not forget about our afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms and with a southeast to east wind flow returning, expect late afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms, especially moving back towards the coast as the East Coast Seabreeze dominates. I see that pattern lasting at least into late next week. Pretty much a typical summertime pattern for us here in FL. This weekend might be hot with temperatures in the mid-90s in some spots as a surface high pressure settles over the southeast and ridging builds in from the west. Would not shock me at all to see some temps. in the 100s in parts of the Southeast.
Quoting 10. tampabaymatt:





This baffles me, where is all the rain that is shown for Texas coming from?
Quoting 58. HurrMichaelOrl:


I remember that winter, being amazed at how mild it was, with a low of 32F the whole winter. That reading was taken in an open carport, so it was probably 1-2 F colder than that. Now I would never site a thermometer in such a skewed setting.

Nowadays, that is the average winter here near the city. We had more potent severe weather events during that decade too, by far. The only really notable spring or fall severe storm I can even recall over the past decade is the March 31, 2011 event.
We had nothing but rain.It was a mild winter up here and I don't really remember any significant weather events happening for my area.
Quoting 61. txjac:




This baffles me, where is all the rain that is shown for Texas coming from?


I think that 6.5 area will be around the Florida mid panhandle area.

Edit: Well, heavier rain than the East Texas coast. Probably not near 6.5".
Quoting 34. Dakster:

I bet STS feels vindicated now that El Nino is ramping up and the good Doc Masters is posting about it.


I don't think so.
Just in case there comes a time where it gets very boring on the blog you can list your most exciting days experiencing weather during your lifetimes.

My top 5 most exciting weather days so far during my lifetime for me:

1. June 29, 2012
2. February 14, 2015
3. June 13, 2013
4. September 18, 2003
5. October 29, 2012

1. June 29, 2012- Extreme heat and humidity with the temperature reaching 102F at KIAD and 104F at DCA along with dewpoints in the low/mid 70's made for a day with extreme instability while a derecho approached from the WNW. This created a feeling of excitement and adrenaline that kept me wired throughout the day. Of course the derecho came that night with 50 to 60 mph wind gusts in my neighborhood (which was pretty much one of the least affected areas around DC when it came to wind reports with areas within a mile of me getting close to if not hurricane force wind gusts. (71 mph at KIAD, 79 mph at Reston) Still enough to get some adrenaline pumping though.


2. February 14, 2015- A very potent arctic front with a blinding snow squall along it moved through my area between 6:40 pm and 6:55 pm est that evening with snowfall rates exceeding 4 inches per hour during the heaviest bursts of snow. It was the first time in my life that I had experience legitimate whiteout conditions from just snow falling from the sky. This event had me pumped all day long tracking it. It was like tracking a line of summer thunderstorms. Surprisingly not one flash of lightning during this intense snow squall though -_-. Now imagine if those exact same dynamics occurred on a hot, humid summer day 8-O


3. September 18, 2003- On this day I was 7 years old and about to experience my first hurricane. She claimed the name Isabel and the whole day I was watching with much excitement the wind and rain increase in intensity. That night all of the trees in my Falls Church neighborhood were doing hardcore core salsa dancing. The following morning, since I was only 7 years old and it was my first hurricane experience I was expecting to see my slightly hilly neighborhood flooded with water from the storm surge all the way from the ocean. But when I looked outside there was no flooding and the rain had apparently stopped hours ago. Three trees in my neighborhood had apparently partied too hard during the night and had fallen over. A few more trees had fallen in every other surrounding neighborhood that I saw.


4. June 13, 2013- A moderate risk of severe weather was posted for my area by the SPC. With storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds and some tornadoes. A weakening MCS coming through the area during the morning quickly stabilized the atmosphere though, quickly dropping my adrenaline levels. However a recovery of some of the instability during the afternoon with a strong solar noon June sun allowed for a second line of storms to intensify while approaching my neighborhood from the west. The big adrenaline pumping part of the storm though veered to the north just in time to miss my area. I still received a brief burst of heavy rain and 30-40 mph wind gusts from that line. *shrugs*


5. October 29, 2012- On this day Hurricane Sandy married a strong trough at a latitude farther south than the latitude we usually see these marriages. All joking aside Hurricane Sandy made an unusual left hook into New Jersey that evening. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph were expected in my neighborhood that evening however this storm ended up being one of the most over-hyped storms at least for MY neighborhood. The same definitely can't be said for areas further northeast, especially places like New Jersey and New York. That night my neighborhood received some wind gusts up to 50 mph, just a regular northeaster strength wind in my book.


These are my top five exciting weather days for me so far during my lifetime. I hope I didn't come off as arrogant during this post. If I did it was certainly not my intention. I just like exciting weather but don't wish harm on other people from it.
Quoting 57. Tazmanian:

sad news in WWE word


Dusty Rhodes passes away

Link
Man, you're WAY late on that one! Where you been? :-)
Quoting 66. Tornado6042008X:

Just in case there comes a time where it gets very boring on the blog you can list your most exciting days experiencing weather during your lifetimes.

My top 5 most exciting weather days so far during my lifetime for me:

1. June 29, 2012
2. February 14, 2015
3. June 13, 2013
4. September 18, 2003
5. October 29, 2012

1. June 29, 2012- Extreme heat and humidity with the temperature reaching 102F at KIAD and 104F at DCA along with dewpoints in the low/mid 70's made for a day with extreme instability while a derecho approached from the WNW. This created a feeling of excitement and adrenaline that kept me wired throughout the day. Of course the derecho came that night with 50 to 60 mph wind gusts in my neighborhood (which was pretty much one of the least affected areas around DC when it came to wind reports with areas within a mile of me getting close to if not hurricane force wind gusts. (71 mph at KIAD, 79 mph at Reston) Still enough to get some adrenline pumping though.


2. February 14, 2015- A very potent arctic front with a blinding snow squall along it moved through my area between 6:40 pm and 6:55 pm est that evening with snowfall rates exceeding 4 inches per hour during the heaviest bursts of snow. It was the first time in my life that I had experience legitimate whiteout conditions from just snow falling from the sky. This event had me pumped all day long tracking it. It was like tracking a line of summer thunderstorms. Surprisingly not one flash of lightning during this intense snow squall though -_-. Now imagine if those exact same dynamics occurred on a hot, humid summer day 8-O


3. September 18, 2003- On this day I was 7 years old and about to experience my first hurricane. She claimed the name Isabel and the whole day I was watching with much excitement the wind and rain increase in intensity. That night all of the trees in my Falls Church neighborhood were doing hardcore core salsa dancing. The following morning, since I was only 7 years old and it was my first hurricane experience I was expecting to see my slightly hilly neighborhood flooded with water from the storm surge all the way from the ocean. But when I looked outside there was no flooding and the rain had apparently stopped hours ago. Three trees in my neighborhood had apparently partied too hard during the night and had fallen over. A few more trees had fallen in every other surrounding neighborhood that I saw.


4. June 13, 2013- A moderate risk of severe weather was posted for my area by the SPC. With storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds and some tornadoes. A weakening MCS coming through the area during the morning quickly stabilized the atmosphere though, quickly dropping my adrenaline levels. However a recovery of some of the instability during the afternoon with a strong solar noon June sun allowed for a second line of storms to intensify while approaching my neighborhood from the west. The big adrenaline pumping part of the storm though veered to the north just in time to miss my area. I still received a brief burst of heavy rain and 30-40 mph wind gusts from that line. *shrugs*


5. October 29, 2012- On this day Hurricane Sandy married a strong trough at a latitude farther south than the latitude we usually see these marriages. All joking aside Hurricane Sandy made an unusual left hook into New Jersey that evening. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph were expected in my neighborhood that evening however this storm ended up being one of the most over-hyped storms at least for MY neighborhood. The same definitely can%u2019t be said for areas further northeast, especially places like New Jersey and New York. That night my neighborhood received some wind gusts up to 50 mph, just a regular northeaster strength wind in my book.


These are my top five exciting weather days for me so far during my lifetime. Hopefully I didn%u2019t bore you to death. I also hope I didn%u2019t come off as arrogant during this post. If I did it was certainly not my intention. I just like exciting weather but don%u2019t wish harm on other people from it.



I have more of 5 events to share with you...but the most unexpected was when Hurricane Catarina with winds betweeb 105 mph - 115 mph hit us here in South Brazil during March 27th-March 28th 2004.
Quoting 61. txjac:




This baffles me, where is all the rain that is shown for Texas coming from?


I grew up in South East Texas in the 70's. I thought a 100 inches a year was normal. If you wanna get the 100 inches, ya gotta get the rain.

Also, I don't know about the rest of the world, but the weather, note I said weather, not climate, weather, tend to run in 50 to 55 year cycles. A review of the really bad Hurricanes land falling on the South East Texas coast hints at it, but also other history points to this cycle also.

For example, the town of Orange Texas was named for the Orange Groves that lines the banks of the Sabine River. The logger that road the log rafts down the river gave it the name around the turn of the century, (uh, the 19th to 20th century.) By the time I grew up, those groves had been killed by frost for a generation.

The cycle repeated, and by the 1950's people were building in Cameron LA and plant citrus groves in South East Texas again, in the the late 1950's and early 1960's there were two major hurricanes, just like Rita and Ike, one brought wind and wiped out Cameron, the other brought water. From the early 1960's to about the mid 1980' the weather turned cooler, with record of 4 inches of snow in 1973 in Port Arthur and just a little north, Beaumont had measurable snow fall for three winters in a row. (I remember, we buried somebody every one of those winters.) The winters kept getting cooler until the early 1980's we had a freeze so bad around Christmas that so many water pipes broke that the city lost water pressure, there was well founded fear that a fire would get quickly out of control.

At the same time we were having these cooler winters, we had no major hurricanes. We had a couple of minor ones, or one and a tropical storm, but no majors. We also had heavy heavy rain, with annual totals getting close to 100 inches a year every year. With spring floods, a daily summer thunder showers.

I suspect that we are in a similar pattern now, and south east Texas can expect wet and cooler for 10 more years.

This neither confirms nor denies climate change science. If climate change is correct, and bigger if, my inductive reasoning is correct, then we can expect cooler wetter temps in South East Texas for another 10 years, with the lows not being quite so low, (Maybe the Gulf of Mexico will not freeze like it did in the early 80's) and the highs being a little higher and maybe we will see a 100 inch average for 5 years , and maybe those Tropical Storms and cat 1 hurricanes will come ashore as cat 1 and cat 2.

Quoting 61. txjac:




This baffles me, where is all the rain that is shown for Texas coming from?

Evening, txjac. For the area in SE TX:


A threat for heavy rainfall will exist for Southeast Texas this weekend into the beginning of next week as deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean gets pulled into Southeast Texas. By Tuesday, rainfall amounts are expected to average 1 to 2 inches north of the Highway 59 corridor with 2 to 4 inch totals possible south. Isolated higher totals 6 inches or more are also possible with the greatest concentration probably setting up along and south of the Highway 59 corridor, especially near and along the coast.

In looking at the near-term QPFs, it looks like a good portion of that rain is falling between Days 2 and 3 (Day 2 for Northern TX & OK and Day 3 for SE TX).



Snipped from NWS-Amarillo's extremely detailed AFD (4:09 pm CDT):

...MYRIAD OF FORECAST CHALLENGES FROM POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO TIME THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING FRIDAY EVENING AND A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE. MOISTURE BECOMES QUITE ANOMALOUS DURING THIS TIME AND
SO THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE POTENTIAL
OF A BACK BUILDING MCS FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
.

WEAK NEGATIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS PER MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES FROM
1.00-1.50 IN THE WESTERN HALF AND OVER 1.50 IN THE EAST) WILL
NECESSITATE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY
. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND PERIODS OF GREATEST
PROBABILITIES IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME RANGE AS IT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON SMALL SCALE EMBEDDED MID-UPPER WAVES AND MESOSCALE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DELINEATE
THIS BETTER. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS...FLOODING IS
INCREASINGLY BECOMING A CONCERN BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED SMALLER SCALE
AND TEMPORAL DETAILS MAKE HIGHLIGHTING A SPECIFIC AREA AND SEGMENTING
A SPECIFIC TIME FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT AND
WILL DEFER POSSIBLE ISSUANCE TO LATER SHIFTS
NWS-Amarillo AFD


TS Carlos is getting better organized and it should become a Hurricane later this week as it nears Mexico.
1001mb, 50mph



Read more...
72. JRRP
Quoting 66. Tornado6042008X:

Just in case there comes a time where it gets very boring on the blog you can list your most exciting days experiencing weather during your lifetimes.

My top 5 most exciting weather days so far during my lifetime for me:

1. June 29, 2012
2. February 14, 2015
3. June 13, 2013
4. September 18, 2003
5. October 29, 2012

1. June 29, 2012- Extreme heat and humidity with the temperature reaching 102F at KIAD and 104F at DCA along with dewpoints in the low/mid 70's made for a day with extreme instability while a derecho approached from the WNW. This created a feeling of excitement and adrenaline that kept me wired throughout the day. Of course the derecho came that night with 50 to 60 mph wind gusts in my neighborhood (which was pretty much one of the least affected areas around DC when it came to wind reports with areas within a mile of me getting close to if not hurricane force wind gusts. (71 mph at KIAD, 79 mph at Reston) Still enough to get some adrenline pumping though.


2. February 14, 2015- A very potent arctic front with a blinding snow squall along it moved through my area between 6:40 pm and 6:55 pm est that evening with snowfall rates exceeding 4 inches per hour during the heaviest bursts of snow. It was the first time in my life that I had experience legitimate whiteout conditions from just snow falling from the sky. This event had me pumped all day long tracking it. It was like tracking a line of summer thunderstorms. Surprisingly not one flash of lightning during this intense snow squall though -_-. Now imagine if those exact same dynamics occurred on a hot, humid summer day 8-O


3. September 18, 2003- On this day I was 7 years old and about to experience my first hurricane. She claimed the name Isabel and the whole day I was watching with much excitement the wind and rain increase in intensity. That night all of the trees in my Falls Church neighborhood were doing hardcore core salsa dancing. The following morning, since I was only 7 years old and it was my first hurricane experience I was expecting to see my slightly hilly neighborhood flooded with water from the storm surge all the way from the ocean. But when I looked outside there was no flooding and the rain had apparently stopped hours ago. Three trees in my neighborhood had apparently partied too hard during the night and had fallen over. A few more trees had fallen in every other surrounding neighborhood that I saw.


4. June 13, 2013- A moderate risk of severe weather was posted for my area by the SPC. With storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds and some tornadoes. A weakening MCS coming through the area during the morning quickly stabilized the atmosphere though, quickly dropping my adrenaline levels. However a recovery of some of the instability during the afternoon with a strong solar noon June sun allowed for a second line of storms to intensify while approaching my neighborhood from the west. The big adrenaline pumping part of the storm though veered to the north just in time to miss my area. I still received a brief burst of heavy rain and 30-40 mph wind gusts from that line. *shrugs*


5. October 29, 2012- On this day Hurricane Sandy married a strong trough at a latitude farther south than the latitude we usually see these marriages. All joking aside Hurricane Sandy made an unusual left hook into New Jersey that evening. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph were expected in my neighborhood that evening however this storm ended up being one of the most over-hyped storms at least for MY neighborhood. The same definitely can’t be said for areas further northeast, especially places like New Jersey and New York. That night my neighborhood received some wind gusts up to 50 mph, just a regular northeaster strength wind in my book.


These are my top five exciting weather days for me so far during my lifetime. Hopefully I didn’t bore you to death. I also hope I didn’t come off as arrogant during this post. If I did it was certainly not my intention. I just like exciting weather but don’t wish harm on other people from it.



Winter of '73 saw first snow at age of 13

October of 81 drove in first snow while traveling on HWY 90 just north of Yellow Stone.

Fall of 88? 89? Got caught in the Veterans Day snow storm while trying to get out of D.C. And travel south to Texas.

September of 2005? Rode out Hurricane Rita in a Telephone Central office in Evadale Texas. I could barely hear the wind over the roar of the diesel generator.

January 2, 2014, dealt with -20 plus a 20 mph wind chill, with heater broken in my truck here in Fargo.

I have never seen a tornado. I had one pass close to my house in Mobile, it caused a suction and popped the little attic access hatch up, that was all it did.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 61. txjac:




This baffles me, where is all the rain that is shown for Texas coming from?


Bonnie beat me to it. :) Best I can tell the ridge building in from the east over the gulf and the SE US, is going to steer all that moisture through here. The NHC said there would be a trough diving out of Texas when discussing the winds at about the same time. Anyway Lake Charles' take.

GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A TAP TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN A
TROUGH OUT WEST AND RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PW`S ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE AND THIS WILL BE
APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WEST OF WHERE IT WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY 2-5
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FORECAST
TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE
MORE TO THE WEST AND AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
WITH IT. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT
WEEK.



#74 - AtHomeInTX

yes, but your response is so much more concise than mine :)
Quoting 75. LAbonbon:

#74 - AtHomeInTX

yes, but your response is so much more concise than mine :)


Lol. But thanks to yours I now know what trough they're talking about.
Quoting 44. Jedkins01:

Well, with the rainfall update, we ended up getting 2.97 here yesterday, which is the largest event at my gauge so far this summer rainy season. We've had 6.41 June to date so far including the total yesterday, add that to the 4.95 in the later part of May, and we've had 11.36 over the past few weeks. Everything looks nice and Florida green, lot's of water everywhere.

I'm a little bit concerned for southeast Florida, after already having drought this year going into the rainy season, this is probably the driest start to the rainy season I've ever seen them have. Usually Southeas Florida is being soaked with heavy rain events by now. Yet they've missed all the good rain events up here in Central Florida for the most part.

Could this strange dryness in SE FL be an omen?
Quoting 76. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. But thanks to yours I now know what trough they're talking about.


Thanks ladies ...now, can you tell me what kind of map you gals looked at to see the trough and stuff?
Hmmm..top 5 most exciting weather days. In order of occurrence:

1) Ice storm of '73 (CT) - I was really young, but I remember an awful lot about it. We lost power for a week or so, had to close off most of the house w/ blankets over doorways, the neighbor and my parents slept on the floor in front of our fireplace, and us kids were piled into my parents bed under a mountain of blankets. The governor closed the roads, and school was a no go. I remember when it re-opened, us kids were among a small handful of students that actually made it in.

2) Blizzard of '78 (CT) - lots and lots of snow...lots and lots of shoveling. At this point we lived on a farm, so we had to tend to all the animals as well (lots and lots of shoveling and hauling of water).

3) Hurricane Gloria, 1985 (CT) - my first hurricane. At the time I was a nanny to 3 young kids, and we lived in a very old (late 1600s) house on a dirt road in a rural, heavily treed area. I admit, I was a bit freaked out. Quite a bit of tree damage, waited for close to 2 weeks for power restoration (thank God for the linemen from Quebec!). Also learned quite a lesson about messing with generators and electrical systems trying to get myself some water, and heated at that. I ended up getting quite the scare and a seriously bruised foot from the current going to ground through my heel. And of course, no hot water...

4) tornado (date unknown), (2003-2004?), LA - very bad storm one night, was living in a trailer (had moved to LA in 2003), and of course I could hardly ever sleep w/ tornado watches and warnings out. Of course, no tornado shelter (and NO ONE I know in LA has one). Ended up that on the next street over, a tornado did damage to some trailers, and one of the residents died in the storm. My main goal after that was to move into a 'regular' house.

5) Hurricane Gustav, 2008 (LA) - my first major storm in my new home, days after I moved in. I was definitely ill-prepared for the storm. I had a generator, though, but based on my history, I was a mite cautious to actually run it...

Honorable mentions:

Storm of the Century, 1993 (CT)

date unknown, mid-late '70s? (Maine) - while on vacation on the shore of Maine, my parents had the bright idea to row (yes, in a row boat) to an island offshore. All I remember is that the winds picked up, the ocean got rough, w/ waves that were downright frightening. We made it to the island, got attacked by large nesting birds, and when the seas died down a bit we made the trip back. That's my first ever recollection of thinking perhaps my dad could sometimes make rather large errors in judgment.

I must say I'm always rather impressed by you guys that remember meteorological specifics pertaining to your experiences.


Quoting 72. JRRP:


It should start to go down in about a week and back to a normal El nino circulation.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* Banishing the clouds: To threaten fossil fuels, solar power must solve its intermittency problem

*** Who's afraid of America? The military playing field is more even than it has been for many years. That is a big problem for the West

*** Towards a body-on-a-chip: The first organ chips are coming to market and, regulators permitting, will speed up drug testing and reduce the use of laboratory animals

Climate change progress 'too slow'

*** Milk digestion's 'more recent rise'

!!! China’s "new normal": structural change, better growth, and peak emissions

*** 'Sunscreen' layer detected on distant planet



*** Ultracold molecules created: At near absolute zero, molecules may start to exhibit exotic states of matter



*** Dispersal of alien species redefines biogeography



!!! Variations in atmospheric oxygen levels shaped Earth's climate through the ages



Spider and centipede venom evolved from insulin-like hormone

!!! Geological game changer: When continents connected - New study shakes up understanding of when continents connected

!!! How atmospheric rivers form



* When trees aren't 'green'

*** New tools aiding storm prediction: increasing ship navigational safety in Gulf of Mexico

*** Whirlpool windmill produces power without blades

Egg or sperm? Scientists identify a gene that makes the call

!!! Sorry, "skeptics": Global warming may not be so great for plant life after all

Saturn's Ring of Dust and 'Soccer Balls'

Launch Commentator for Apollo 11 Moon Shot, Jack King, Dies

*** Pluto Pictures From New Horizons Put a New Face on Dwarf Planet

Africa: At Annual Meeting, UN Committee On Space Issues Renews Focus On Sustainability and Climate Change
Quoting 78. txjac:



Thanks ladies ...now, can you tell me what kind of map you gals looked at to see the trough and stuff?

I look at the surface maps, starting with the most recent one, then the short-range forecasts, and then the medium-range forecasts. Coupled with the AFDs, I can usually figure out what's going on.

Sometimes I just go to Levi's site and look at the models, but I didn't this time. I'm not the biggest fan of looking at models...but that's just me (*shrugs*).

And sometimes I use the surface maps from the Ocean Prediction Center that cover the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic.

Maybe someone has a different or easier method to ascertain what's going on that they'd be willing to share?
My most memorable weather events, absolutely not as detailed as others.

1. Fourth of July rain storm, I must have been 7 or 8 and living in Monroeville Ohio, very small village. I remember the adults running around, I also remember canoes and such going down the streets.

2. 1978 (maybe 77?) Blizzard. Still in the little village ...I felt like I was Laura Ingles out on the prairie, it was so isolated. We were snowed in for two weeks. I remember the National Guard coming around on snow mobiles checking on people and making sure everyone had food and such. We also missed a month of school that year and the village couldn't afford to heat it. We had to make up school days on Saturdays ..that went over like a lead balloon

3. Not sure of the year, maybe 1982? It was my first hurricane - Alicia. Had just moved to Houston with my sister and my parent were freaking out. My sister and I thought it was pretty cool since we had never experienced anything like that before ...we were young and foolish

4. My next weather remembrance was Allison ...wow! What a mess of rain that one was.

5. Ike - I remember Ike very well. I had a guy in that I was training from the UK. He wanted to stay and ride out the storm ...we wouldn't let him and put him on a plane back home. I remember everyone at work left ...and the three of us that remained wound up packing up everyone's desk on the 6th floor. Good thing that we did as the building suffered a lot of damage. We were working from home for over a month while repairs were being made
Shark attack at Ocean Isle Beach NC, about 30 minutes east of Myrtle Beach today.

NC is ranked 5th in the US for shark attacks according to the FLMNH Ichthyology Department after Florida, Hawaii, South Carolina, and California...and only Australia and South Africa have more if other whole countries are included.
Quoting 78. txjac:



Thanks ladies ...now, can you tell me what kind of map you gals looked at to see the trough and stuff?
Best map is still the WPC surface map you can get here. Not as snappy as some others but it lays out the surface features without a bunch of fluff either. A trough will show up as an orange dotted line. We don't have a trough in the Gulf right now but you can see a big one in the central valley of California. What you can see is that 1016 mb and 1020 mb line nosing in over the Southeast. Keep an eye on that 1004 mb line over central Texas. If that moves further west between now and Saturday and the 1016 mb line also moves farther west, the chances of any significant rain in TX and LA go down. If it stays there, the chances of rain go back up.

Quoting 82. LAbonbon:


I look at the surface maps, starting with the most recent one, then the short-range forecasts, and then the medium-range forecasts. Coupled with the AFDs, I can usually figure out what's going on.

Sometimes I just go to Levi's site and look at the models, but I didn't this time. I'm not the biggest fan of looking at models...but that's just me (*shrugs*).

And sometimes I use the surface maps from the Ocean Prediction Center that cover the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic.

Maybe someone has a different or easier method to ascertain what's going on that they'd be willing to share?


Thanks, book marked them for future use.

Edit ...thanks to all of you. I might actually start getting some of this stuff ...lol
Quoting 58. HurrMichaelOrl:


I remember that winter, being amazed at how mild it was, with a low of 32F the whole winter. That reading was taken in an open carport, so it was probably 1-2 F colder than that. Now I would never site a thermometer in such a skewed setting.

Nowadays, that is the average winter here near the city. We had more potent severe weather events during that decade too, by far. The only really notable spring or fall severe storm I can even recall over the past decade is the March 31, 2011 event.


Winter 1997-98 is the only winter I kept my potted citrus outside the entire DJF winter period. A March arctic outbreak finally forced me to protect them briefly. Since I was exhausted with newborn twins (Dec 97) it was a blessing to have an uneventful winter. January 1998 is the only January I've needed AC (for the babies who were hot!) in the DC metro area.
Alright, here's mine:

1. July 2006 St. Louis derechos (witnessed hurricane force winds- incredible)

2. Late November 2006 Ice Storm (horrendous tree damage- never forget the sound of the limbs falling down and power going out with us bundling up inside the house to keep warm)

3. Tropical Storm Claudette August 2009 (stayed up till the early morning hours to watch the partial "eyewall" move over: had surprisingly strong and sustained winds around 50 miles per hour with higher gusts)

4. April 2006 severe thunderstorm with tornado- (living in Illinois with no basement, the tornado warned thunderstorm itself was so nasty I truly feared for my life, turned out an EF2 tornado hit a central area of the city nearby)

5. September 13, 2006 thunderstorm in NW FL- (a very small, lone cell sat over my town for around an hour as dark fell creating probably the most incredible and humbling lightning experience I've had)

Honorable mention: August 1996 severe thunderstorm in Phoenix, AZ- (Amazingly, I remember this and what I recall is my Mom exclaiming how the wind was actually visibly shaking our car in the driveway)
Quoting 87. txjac:



Thanks, book marked them for future use.

Edit ...thanks to all of you. I might actually start getting some of this stuff ...lol

I certainly know a lot more than I did even a couple years ago. Not nearly what many on here know, but I learn a little more each day.

There's also the NWS Daily Briefing page. It's got a little bit of everything, including the national short range forecast discussion, as well as a 7-day surface map loop. Weathermanwannabe posts 'big picture' stuff in the morning, some of which can be found on this page.

In retrospect, the national short range forecast discussion very simply answered your original question about the source(s) of the pending rain in Texas.

You likely know about this page already...but if not, hope it helps :)
Top 5,

1. 1965 Betsy, NOLA, I was 5.5



First Billion Dollar Cane.

Dad was Vol Fireman.He was gone a lot for 3 weeks post Storm. But He did come by the House with ol # 4 Fire Engine and give us rides.

2. Camille, 4 years later. Cat 5. Experienced in NOLA on the Western side, with Winds to 55 and gust higher.
Dad was worried about His parents in Bay St. Louis. We looked East all thru the Storm,..
Utter destruction of Long Beach, Gulfport,Biloxi, Pass Christian.



Bay St.Louis Surge was up Waveland Ave, but was stopped by the railroad tracks, a Half Mile inland.


3. Elena Cat 3.

I was 25, just out of USMC. We had millwright shop in Long Beach, Miss. Crazy Track, Came up, prepped for Impact, She veered right to Tampa, stalled then backtracked right over us as a Cat 3. Elena luckily came ashore at a oblique angle to the Coast so Surge was minimal.

Was the first Daytime Eye View I ever saw.



Was a wicked backside as we heard it coming in the distance, and boom, right back into Cat 3 conditions in less than a minute.

4. Cindy, July 6-7th 2005, She came in fast, and back slapped NOLA into Darkness and when K struck here 7 weeks later, we were still picking up tree debris and mulching it on Public Playgrounds there was still so much.
Cindy also put 200K into darkness from Wind caused power outages, Most since Betsy 40 years earlier.



5. Katrina. 2005


Quoting 91. Patrap:








Edit: and the teenage girl attacked by the shark in NC today had more damage done to her boogie board than her leg at least (not the one holding the board of course lol)



Felt remarkably hot and humid at 10PM after an hour of darkness, still mid 80s walking the dogs. These dogs get me outside into a lot of weather. Still around 80 now near midnight here in DC.
Once again my plan to head to bed were derailed by the arrival of the reading list. Darn you, Brian! I've added another 13 (!) articles to the ever-expanding reading queue.

On that note, I'm hitting the hay. Hope all who are experiencing serious weather tonight don't get disturbed too much.

Good night, all.
Thunderstorms were a lot more scattered here today with no rain here. They should be even more scattered tomorrow and end by Saturday as we go into our heatwave. I'd rather have rain.

I'm much too old to pick out the top five weather memories, especially since the Gregorian calendar had just been invented for a few of them. :-0 The one I do remember is February 18, 1986. A huge Pacific storm had already started, and we had to be flown into Guerneville, the main town on the Russian River. There were four of us, and our job was to coordinate the evacuation of about 1500 people who had not left when the evacuation order was given. I didn't know it then, but our helicopter ride, scary as it was, would be the last in or out for three days. The river rose from 22 feet to 44 feet in about 9 hours, cutting off all road access. We had to move everyone into the one church that was on the high ground. There were about thirty infants that were part of this crowd, and we had no way to evacuate anyone, since no NG helicopters could fly in that storm. The entire town was under water, and the two Red Cross volunteers and three Salvation Army corp members (Thank God for all of them) were fast running out of things like food and formula. The Safeway already had five feet of water, so I made the executive decision that we could requisition things we needed by boat. It was actually kind of fun shopping by boat. We got our load back to the church and the volunteers set to cooking and distributing the food. We could only make a once an hour radio contact with Santa Rosa because the portable radio we had was going to be out of batteries and the emergency generator was going to be out of gas if we ran it more than once an hour. On one of our contacts that night, we were asked to motor over to the Guerneville bridge and get a reading on the flood gauge because all the remote sensors were out. After fighting the current - in the dark - for half an hour, we were able to tie up next to the bridge and spotlight the gauge. It read 47.2 feet. We gave them the reading on the next contact and were told we were wrong, since the County flood control agency and Corps of Engineers didn't have the river above 46 feet, and would we mind checking it again. I won't go into what I said, but I told them we'd make one more check at midnight before we ceased operations except for emergency rescues.

There were four of us from the Sheriff's Department and five volunteer fire fighters. The fire station was the next highest point in town. We dutifully motored over the the gauge at midnight and the river was up to 48.1 feet. When we got back to the station and reported that, I got back something like "Oh my, if it gets to 49 feet, the fire station goes under". By that time, the water was already three feet deep in the street outside the station, so I sent three of my guys and the five firefighters across to the church by boat . One of firefighters, bless his heart, volunteered to stay and run the generator so we could still use the radio and report in. He took the first two hour watch. After checking out the water already flowing through the equipment bay, I climbed into the hose bed of a pumper and pretty much passed out. I really didn't care if I died, I just wanted to be asleep if it happened.

And that's how I spent my 40th birthday. :-)
Quoting 11. ndscott50:

The “unusually high amounts of water vapor across the Southwest” is continuing to affect us along the Colorado Front Range. This should be a dry time of year with wild fires the primary concern, instead it continues to be very moist. It looks like a very wet next 24 hours is starting to get under way. The forecast map is starting to look like some type of Christmas art:



And the radar is filling in.


I'd be concerned about flash flooding in the front range if this keeps up ...
Quoting 95. sar2401:

Thunderstorms were a lot more scattered here today with no rain here. They should be even more scattered tomorrow and end by Saturday as we go into out heatwave. I'd rather have rain.

I'm much too old to pick out the top five weather memories, especially since the Gregorian calendar had just been invented for a few of them. :-0 The one I do remember is February 18, 1986. A huge Pacific storm had already started, and we had to be flown into Guerneville, the main town on the Russian River. There were four of us, and our job was to coordinate the evacuation of about 1500 people who had not left when the evacuation order was given. I didn't know it then, but our helicopter ride, scary as it was, would be the last in or out for three days. The river rose from 22 feet to 44 feet in about 9 hours, cutting off all road access. We had to move everyone into the one church that was on the high ground. There were about thirty infants that were part of this crowd, and we had no way to evacuate anyone, since no NG helicopters could fly in that storm. The entire town was under water, and the two Red Cross volunteers and three Salvation Army corp members (Thank God for all of them) were fast running out of things like food and formula. The Safeway already had five feet of water, so I made the executive decision that we could requisition things we needed by boat. It was actually kind of fun shopping by boat. We got our load back to the church and the volunteers set to cooking and distributing the food. We could only make a once an hour radio contact with Santa Rosa because the portable radio we had was going to be out of batteries and the emergency generator was going to be out of gas if we ran it more than once an hour. On one of our contacts that night, we were asked to motor over to the Guerneville bridge and get a reading on the flood gauge because all the remote sensors were out. After fighting the current - in the dark - for half an hour, we were able to tie up next to the bridge and spotlight the gauge. It read 47.2 feet. We gave them the reading on the next contact and were told we were wrong, since the County flood control agency and Corps of Engineers didn't have the river above 46 feet, and would we mind checking it again. I won't go into what I said, but I told them we'd make one more check at midnight before we ceased operations except for emergency rescues.

There were four of us from the Sheriff's Department and five volunteer fire fighters. The fire station was the next highest point in town. We dutifully motored over the the gauge at midnight and the river was up to 48.1 feet. When we got back to the station and reported that, I got back something like "Oh my, if it gets to 49 feet, the fire station goes under". By that time, the water was already three feet deep in the street outside the station, so I sent three of my guys and the five firefighters across to the church by boat . One of firefighters, bless his heart, volunteered to stay and run the generator so we could still use the radio and report in. He took the first two hour watch. After checking out the water already flowing through the equipment bay, I climbed into the hose bed of a pumper and pretty much passed out. I really didn't care if I died, I just wanted to be asleep if it happened.

And that's how I spent my 40th birthday. :-)


I'm much too young to have had five memorable weather experiences thus far lol, but I'll give it a whirl

1) Hurricane Arthur last year, only time I've been in the eye of a hurricane

2) Hurricane Fran damaged our house in '96

3) Tornado nearly took out my friends house in High Point my senior year of high school in '10, came really close to ours Link

4) Hurricane Isabel got us out of school in '03 the day of, I was there for about thirty minutes to an hour before they called buses back to take us home

5) Ice storm last year for the coastal Carolinas, we had a similar ice storm when I was a kid but the effects at the coast not being used to it were worse imo
Quoting 88. georgevandenberghe:



Winter 1997-98 is the only winter I kept my potted citrus outside the entire DJF winter period. A March arctic outbreak finally forced me to protect them briefly. Since I was exhausted with newborn twins (Dec 97) it was a blessing to have an uneventful winter. January 1998 is the only January I've needed AC (for the babies who were hot!) in the DC metro area.

All I remember from the el Nino of 1997-98 was yet another massive round of California flooding, culminating with the worst rains ever experienced in northern California on New Year's Day, 1998. The flooding and landslides were so widespread that we had to get help from all over the west as mutual aid because we just didn't have the resources to handle it. I think a total of 115,000 to 120,000 people ended up getting evacuated. Ten people died, including one of our first responders, and it was the first time in history that every single county in northern California had been declared a disaster area. We had bad floods in 1982, 86, 95, and now 98. I thought this was just going to be a way of life. I had no way of knowing that the 1998 flood was to be the last of the big flood disasters right up until today, so it's been almost 17 years now. Will history repeat itself if we really do get a strong El Nino? I don't know, but, if I still lived there, I'd be checking my water wings for leaks. :-)
Quoting 96. BahaHurican:

I'd be concerned about flash flooding in the front range if this keeps up ...
So far, the flooding has not been as bad as feared, especially in Northern Colorado. The only place with significant flooding is Elbert County in east central Colorado. That appears to be easing somewhat. As long as most areas can make it through the night with no heavy rain developing, things should improve dramatically over the next several days.
Quoting 77. sflmike:


Could this strange dryness in SE FL be an omen?
Probably not. Just like the drought ended in OK and TX, it will end there as well, and probably sooner rather than later. South Florida has been mostly cut off from the usual sea breezes and tropical flow by troughs forming in the eastern Gulf and shunting much of the moisture northward. That's about to change as a large high develops over the SE, allowing the tropical flow to undercut the ridge. This should bring some decent rains to south Florida starting Sunday. At least, that's what should happen. :-)
Well since everyone else seems to be listing their most memorable weather moments, I guess I'll do the same...

5. Late Spring Snowfall-May 2004-I was 9 years old and living in Milan, TN at the time, and I saw the latest snowfall in decades for the area. We ended up with less than an inch, but to me seeing any snow in late spring was something really special. The snow was completely gone by the late afternoon after the sun came out and temps got up into the 50s.

4. Tennessee Ice/Snow Storm-February 2015-Apparently this was the first time in several years Tennessee Tech had to shut down due to weather, and we ended up out for an entire week. Although in Sparta things weren't too bad, just up the plateau in Crossville nearly every tree snapped under the weight of the ice, and some more remote places went without power until mid March.

3. Running from Hurricane Lili-October 2002-I remember the panic as cat 4 Lili churned closer and closer to NOLA, and my dad waited until the ABSOLUTE LAST MINUTE to get us out of there to avoid the worst of the traffic. The outer rain bands were already starting to come overhead as we went across the causeway bringing 50+ mph gusts and driving rain. Thankfully Lili hit central LA as a much weaker cat 1, so the worst I saw coming back was a few bent signs.

2. Cookeville Microburst-June 2014-I was driving to a church activity in Cookeville, TN as an ugly looking storm approached town, although I didn't think too much of it since there wasn't any severe weather forecast for that day. The rain started as I reached the city limits and got progressively worse until I had to pull into a parking lot to wait it out. Dime sized hail pelted the side of my Corolla and the wind gusts rocked the car and pulled off singles from the roof of the building next to me. I'd estimate the winds probably reached 70 mph for a couple seconds.

1. Weak Tornado in NOLA-2001-Had a nasty storm sitting over town that day, and the clouds turned a sickly shade of green as we went on our way home from church. A bit later I looked out the car window and saw a swirl of tree branches and bits of roof maybe a block away from us. It traveled almost parallel to our car for a while before dissipating after we pulled into a bank. I feel it was likely a waterspout turned tornado upon landfall, although my parents still aren't convinced XD.
102. OCF
Some random memories over many years.

From northeastern Oklahoma:

Hurricane Carla. A long, odd, day of steady wind and steady rain - and there was still enough wind 600 miles inland to damage trees in our yard.

Late December, some time between 1967 and 1970 - not sure of the year. 75 or 80 degrees on Wednesday, the snowstorm hit Thursday afternoon, 9 inches on the ground, school canceled on Friday, 5 below by Saturday morning.

And of course, lots of thunderstorm phenomena over many years: lightning shows, gust fronts, roll clouds, clouds so dark the street lights came on in the day time, and so on. (But I never saw a tornado.)

Houston:

June 1975 or 1976: massive rainfall on a single day, some of it >10 inches. Street flooding everywhere.

Madison, WI/Chicago (I was in both places):

January, 1979 - some time around the 11th or 13th. In Madison, 4 days out of 7 with lows below -20, including -28 twice. And sandwiched in between, about a foot of snow - and another 4 inches a few days later. 20 inches in Chicago, paralyzing the city. I was in Madison during the big storm, but traveled to Chicago (by bus) immediately after.

Southern California:

Eh, mostly less memorable. But the one time a tornado hit within a half mile of where I was living, it was in California. Go figure. (Probably EF0, maybe a half mile further along briefly EF1).
Very impressive.
When I was a kid in the early eighties in Wilson, NC; a tornado hit our neighborhood. I slept right beside a window and it blew in shattering glass all over my bed. Was frightened beyond belief. Must have been five or six at the time. Dad got us to the hallway and put a heavy rug over the family as the twister did major roof damage to our home. The sound, the fear, it all still is very clear to this day. No doubt the reason I have such an affinity for weather. Here in SC Wisconsin we received over 100 inches of snow not too many years back. One blizzard left a drift on our country road about seven feet high. We have massive farm equipment that clears such. Next day two turned down our road, took a look, and turned around. Was a shoveling nightmare, but I was out in the blizzard for two hours. Loved it, but glad my house was twenty yards away.
LOL Was living in the NW Chicago area, Half Day, in 79 when this happened. When the road got plowed, moved to SW Florida.
To many storm events to list living here!!!!


Quoting 102. OCF:

Some random memories over many years.

From northeastern Oklahoma:

Hurricane Carla. A long, odd, day of steady wind and steady rain - and there was still enough wind 600 miles inland to damage trees in our yard.

Late December, some time between 1967 and 1970 - not sure of the year. 75 or 80 degrees on Wednesday, the snowstorm hit Thursday afternoon, 9 inches on the ground, school canceled on Friday, 5 below by Saturday morning.

And of course, lots of thunderstorm phenomena over many years: lightning shows, gust fronts, roll clouds, clouds so dark the street lights came on in the day time, and so on. (But I never saw a tornado.)

Houston:

June 1975 or 1976: massive rainfall on a single day, some of it >10 inches. Street flooding everywhere.

Madison, WI/Chicago (I was in both places):

January, 1979 - some time around the 11th or 13th. In Madison, 4 days out of 7 with lows below -20, including -28 twice. And sandwiched in between, about a foot of snow - and another 4 inches a few days later. 20 inches in Chicago, paralyzing the city. I was in Madison during the big storm, but traveled to Chicago (by bus) immediately after.

Southern California:

Eh, mostly less memorable. But the one time a tornado hit within a half mile of where I was living, it was in California. Go figure. (Probably EF0, maybe a half mile further along briefly EF1).

Quoting 101. Huracan94:

Well since everyone else seems to be listing their most memorable weather moments, I guess I'll do the same...

5. Late Spring Snowfall-May 2004-I was 9 years old and living in Milan, TN at the time, and I saw the latest snowfall in decades for the area. We ended up with less than an inch, but to me seeing any snow in late spring was something really special. The snow was completely gone by the late afternoon after the sun came out and temps got up into the 50s.

4. Tennessee Ice/Snow Storm-February 2015-Apparently this was the first time in several years Tennessee Tech had to shut down due to weather, and we ended up out for an entire week. Although in Sparta things weren't too bad, just up the plateau in Crossville nearly every tree snapped under the weight of the ice, and some more remote places went without power until mid March.


Do you know where Pickett State Park is? Up near the Kentucky/TN border? I drove up there with my mother a few weeks back and wow, amazing to see how much tree damage was there. She said it looked absolutely terrible when she went up in March. That ice storm must've been something.
Quoting 47. stormpetrol:



Looks like some unsettled weather from the EPAC crossing over Guatemala and Belize into the GOH, shear is very high there though.


Looks like more stormy weather the the NW Caribbean Central America BOC GOT E-EPac
Dang...I was so hoping to see grothars top 5....
Most memorable weather events for me:

I live in the Willamette Valley of Oregon so the weather is usually pretty mild.

1. Columbus Day Stom, 1962. I was 10 years old and it was pretty exciting, winds in Corvallis were 69 mph with a gust of at least 127 mph. Power was out for about 20 hours.

2. November 1996 Pineapple Express. I was rafting the Rogue River. Around 4:00 PM on the evening of our last night it started raining hard and didn't stop for two days. The river went from around 2000 cfs that evening to 4500 cfs the next morning to 22,000 cfs by the time we reached the takeout the next day. The river peaked the next day at around 48,000 cfs. The trip home was an adventure too.

3. Early 1990s Arctic cold snap. Temperatures were below zero overnight and in the 20s during the day for nearly 2 weeks. 18 inches of dry snow on the ground. Loved it.

4. Another rafting day, hot and humid (unusual for Oregon). I rafted the McKenzie River and the water was cold enough that a 5 foot deep layer of fog formed on the river. I couldn't see clearly more than 20 or 30 feet downstream while maneuvering in the rapids yet if I stood up the air was nearly clear and hot.

5. Early 1980's - 48 inches of snow in 36 hours at Mt. Bachelor (Oregon). It was my ski bum years and I was loading chairs there. I wasn't working when it happened and got to ski the outrageously deep powder snow to my hearts content.

Added:
6: Living south of Bend Oregon before I started working at Mt. Bachelor we had a cold snap for about a week where lows were -30 F or lower and highs were maybe around 0 F. I had a block heater in my pickup so it wasn't too bad for me.
Top 5 weather memories ....

Grew up in the Chicago suburbs ... 1967 blizzard ....I was 7 years old. My buddy's house was drifted under so bad that we snow-saucered from the peak of his roof into his back yard. We used our Irish Setter as a sled dog.

April Fools Day 1976 .... we already knew we were moving to Florida that summer. We had a blizzard that drifted cars under, and this was long after people had changed out their winter tires. No all-season tires back then. It was Illinois' way of saying "don't ever come back". lol.

Tropical storm in 1985 that did several loops for three days, 60 miles away from Tampa, in the gulf before moving on northward. I lived in a 2nd story condo, a half mile from the evacuation border. Watched water flood my downstairs neighbors. I was refinishing an old wooden desk on the screen porch ... it was boring being stuck there for three days. Had to bring the desk in and out depending on how bad the weather was blowing around. The desk ended up looking great. The neighbor's furniture ... not so good.

The Tampa area had not had a direct hit by a hurricane since 1928 or so ... fast forward to 2004. We had four tropical storms/hurricanes pass through. It was every other Saturday, spread out over six weeks. Exhausting.

The No-Name Storm in 1991 (?) ... It was a marvelous spring day. I left the house that morning with the windows open about four inches. By Noon, I was stuck in a restaurant, 10 miles away, and we were struggling to hold the double entry doors closed while we watched the mobile home park across the street get torn up by the wind. Some guy was whimpering about his new car, as the oak tree out front was dropping large branches on it. When I got home, it looked like someone shot a firehose into the west-facing window openings. Spent a lot of time with the shop-vac that night, drying carpet. Fun times ....

112. beell
Top 5:
1. Sunday, June 7th 2015
2. Monday, June 8th, 2015
3. Tuesday, June 9th, 2015
4. Wednesday, June 10th 2015
5. Thursday, June 11th 2015

Today appears to be in contention for a Top 5 spot as well.
Quoting 111. LargoFl:


Wow.... would be amazing if this also hit Baja ....
Quoting 112. beell:

Top 5:
1. Sunday, June 7th 2015
2. Monday, June 8th, 2015
3. Tuesday, June 9th, 2015
4. Wednesday, June 10th 2015
5. Thursday, June 11th 2015

Today appears to be in contention for a Top 5 spot as well.
Clever. Very clever ....

BTW, good morning to Largo and beell and all .... Happy Friday!
carlos.following.bianca
Quoting 113. BahaHurican:

Wow.... would be amazing if this also hit Baja ....
yes it would be,its a strange season so far huh...looks like it will be a rainmaker
carlos.spread.out.dvorak
000
WGUS84 KAMA 120925
FLSAMA

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
425 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TXC375-381-121200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FA.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-150612T1200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
425 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN RANDALL AND SOUTHERN
POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

AT 424 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THAT THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN HAD
MOVED OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE WATER TO RECEDE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CANYON... AMARILLO... PALO DURO CANYON...
LAKE TANGLEWOOD... TIMBERCREEK CANYON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF MANY
STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF AMARILLO...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS AS THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...UP TO SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME INSTANCES...MAY CAUSE
CARS TO STALL AND POSE A HAZARD TO PUBLIC SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 10204 3551 10163 3490 10163 3492 10205

$$

KB

Just about all of my wx memories are hurricane related:

1. Hurricane David, 1979
2. Hurricane Andrew 1992
3. Hurricane Floyd, 1999
4. Hurricane Michelle, 2001

The fifth one is a blizzard that hit the east coast in early January 1988. While it wasn't a record snowfall of any kind, it was the worst snowstorm I have experienced, and it was made worse by the fact that I was flying from Nassau to Greensboro, NC on the day it happened. Airports in NC were closed while we were still en route, and we ended up diverting to Baltimore, of all places. For a while it seemed I, along with others from my flight, were destined to sleep on the floor in the airport. However at the last minute the powers that be opened Greensboro's airport and a plane load of returning students, airline employees and desperate Piedmont residents boarded. When we landed in Greensboro, I got a taxi to my place, where the driver had to drive up onto the lawn to get me close enough to the porch so I could get inside ... an unforgettable experience that was for an inexperienced islander whose idea of "cold" was anything below 70 degrees .... and precipitation ran off to low-lying places ...
Reading how everyone of you has gone through several extreme weather events is quite fascinating. Growing up in Austria, I can't recall a single occasion of a weather event doing any damage to my parents' house.

Now I am not saying that Austria is completely spared when it comes to extreme weather. There is severe flooding every few years and we have been very lucky especially in 2002 and 2013 when basically everyone in our neighbourhood suffered serious damage except for us.



Note: No this is not Venice but nearby Passau during the 2013 flooding. Passau lies directly on the meeting point of the two major rivers Danube and Inn (somewhat reminiscent of Manhattan) and is notorious for its flooding problem.

My most memorable weather experience is probably the extreme winter of 2006 though. Snowfall was so heavy that numerous structures, mainly those with flat roofs, collapsed. Especially in elevated regions more than 2m fell within a few weeks and caused chaos.

Well that's really it and I knew how lucky I was even before reading your stories. Storms, tornadoes, earthquakes and all that are not really an issue here so I guess I am blessed with living in one of the safest countries when it comes to extreme weather.
Quoting 51. TimTheWxMan:




Oh great, he's going to say "told you so" for the rest of the year. :/
Not unless we get the Super El Nino he was predicting.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 14h14 hours ago
Current downwelling Kelvin wave now stronger than big one in Apr- lots of EPac warming likely coming #climate #ElNino


Very impressive warm pool now underway!
Quoting 108. WaterWitch11:

Dang...I was so hoping to see grothars top 5....


Grothar's Top Five:

1. The Big Bang

And...that's it. After that, nothing really compares. :)
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 14h14 hours ago
Current downwelling Kelvin wave now stronger than big one in Apr- lots of EPac warming likely coming #climate #ElNino


Very impressive warm pool now underway!



Good morning Scott. I'm at 15.26" in the past month (since May 12th) at my location!
Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Not unless we get the Super El Nino he was predicting.


My prediction was for 1.8C but I won't be surprised to see a El-Nino the likes that rivals 1997. Models are consistent with that.


Latest CFSv2 is holding near 2.5C similar to the Euro infact that updated for June.

Quoting 126. tampabaymatt:



Good morning Scott. I'm at 15.26" in the past month (since May 12th) at my location!


You should do good next week as storms should favor the interior to west coast of FL per GFS.

GFS 10 day precip accum.

Good Morning; my top 5 weather memories (in chrono order);

1. Watching a major cane come through Miami in the 60's, I was about 4, from the windows of the apartment near the Miami River and then thinking that a Coast Guard helicopter hovering around the next day was a UFO;

2. Watching a string of tornadoes off of US 1 between Key Largo and Homestead on the horizon during a Spring frontal passage from the car in the 1970's (Dad was driving);

3. Getting caught off-shore in a small boat off of Marathon (Florida Keys) at night in the late 70's in a bad t-storm and flying back to shore then running aground a 1/2 mile offshore in blinding rain and lightening raining down; all three of us off the boat, in pitch black waist deep waters, pulling the boat off the sand bar while the bolts are dropping. Did not do another trip like that for several years.

4. The devastation of Hurricane Andrew; my girlfriends house in South Dade where I lived at the time (and we went North to stay with our respective parents in Miami for the storm) was "gone" the next day.

5. Seeing a small tornado come through Downtown Miami from the office window in the late 90's (it looked beautiful as it transitioned to a water-spout in Biscayne Bay) then finding out that afternoon that came through the lot where I parked blowing out 3 windows in the car.
Quoting 128. StormTrackerScott:



You should do good next week as storms should favor the interior to west coast of FL per GFS.

GFS 10 day precip accum.




Yeah. Until this pesky High sitting right off the Atlantic coast moves, the west coast of FL will continue to get drilled while the east coast remains dry. I was in SE FL last weekend and it's like a desert down there.
132. yoboi
Top 5 AGW events for me....

1. CO2 over 400 ppm
2. Extra rain
3. Record tomato crop
4. Record cucumber crop
5. Record rice yields
Quoting 128. StormTrackerScott:


You should do good next week as storms should favor the interior to west coast of FL per GFS.

GFS 10 day precip accum.



Hi Scott-

This may be a coincidence but the last time I saw little precipitation in June in East Florida - around Port St. Lucie area- was back in 2004.
Quoting 108. WaterWitch11:
Dang...I was so hoping to see grothars top 5....


The top one would have been Noah's Great Flood.
Quoting 133. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scott-

This may be a coincidence but the last time I saw little precipitation in June in East Florida - around Port St. Lucie area- was back in 2004.


Its interesting as I pointed this out too as the storms here across parts of the interior have been vicious with lots of trees coming down lately. Last time I saw something like this was 2004. Oddly enough look at this on the CFSv2 for August notice the precip anomalies from Africa over to FL. Very interesting as there may not be many storms but the ones that form we will need to watch very closely.

This could be concerning given the current strength of this persistent ridge off the Mid Atlantic.

August


Quoting 134. rmbjoe1954:



The top one would have been Noah's Great Flood.


My top 5 weather events

1. Charley
2. Jeanne
3. Frances
4. February 22/23 Tornado Outbreak 1998 across C FL
5. Hailstorm March 1992 in Altamonte Springs which was up to 3 FEET deep!
Quoting 132. yoboi:

Top 5 AGW events for me....

1. CO2 over 400 ppm
2. Extra rain
3. Record tomato crop
4. Record cucumber crop
5. Record rice yields

Too bad that "extra rain" brought death and destruction. As for the crop yields; documentation, please.
Plants may run out of time to grow under ongoing climate change

A key potential 'benefit' of global warming--namely, that plants at northern latitudes will thrive in a warmer world--is challenged by a new study released by University of Hawai'i scientists today.

The prevailing assumption ignores the fact that plants in the North will remain limited by solar radiation, curbing positive effects of warming and additional CO2 availability. In addition, that same warming could surpass plant temperature tolerances in tropical areas around the world, and further be accompanied by drought.

"Those that think climate change will benefit plants need to see the light, literally and figuratively," says Camilo Mora, professor at the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa's College of Social Sciences and lead author of the new study. "A narrow focus on the factors that influence plant growth has led to major underestimations of the potential impacts of climate change on plants, not only at higher latitudes but more severely in the tropics, exposing the world to dire consequences," he adds.


Link
Forgot the great no-name storm of March 93; I was near Orlando staying with a friend and hail was dropping around 10:00 pm on the way back from dinner. Ran into the house (wooden house with a new second floor under construction) and the house was swaying in the winds for several hours overnight. Trees down the next morning everywhere from the tornadoes blocking our drive to the local breakfast joint in Clermont.
Feature in central Gulf heading into much lower shear today, this going to hold together or even strengthen and dump on Florida?
The current look for the Atlantic including relative shear levels per CIMMS; that complex in the Gulf would have a better chance if it was in the Atlantic off of the coast of Miami and it is actually drifting into the shear in the Western Gulf as opposed to the lower shear levels to the East.

The convection is baroclinic in nature being fueled by the huge upper level TUTT cell draped across the Gulf adjacent to it; development of this feature is not likely.

Upper Level Tutt Cell:





I grew up in Grand Rapids, MI and lived in Ann Arbor, Cleveland, OH and now Tampa, FL. My top 5:
1. Early 1990s near Muskegon, MI. My brothers and I were at the beach on the 4th of July when a very strong storm rolled through. We got a tornado and 70+ mph winds. The wind pushed the lake water up the beach to the dune and then when the storm had passed is sloshed back past the sand bar like water in a bath tub.
2. 2008 Cleveland, OH. A small and persistent T'Storm formed near the lake shore and poured nearly 5" of rain in a short time. Funny that we got more than that in Tampa on Tuesday but it was no big deal.
3. Early 1990s, GR. During an extremely heavy lake effect squall, I said to my brother "All we need is thunder and lightning". 5 seconds later, flash and boom! My brother looked at me like I was a ghost.
4. 1998 AA. 24" of snow (followed by what seemed like a month of snow). We took a bottle of cinnamon schnapps and a football and played rumble-fumble in the snow until 4 am. U of M removed the snow to Ebel field. There were snow/trash piles there until late May.
5. Sandy. I flew through that [redacted] going from Pittsburgh PA to Tampa. Not fun.
Blue skies for the most part except to the southeast, thundering right now with storms off the coast.
Good morning all!

Ok, can't help myself! I have to add my top 5!

1) The Denver Blizzard of 1982...we went to sleep thinking 3-6" and woke up to 36" of snow and a whole lot of cursing from my mother!

2) Hurricane Wilma...Turned to my husband at 7 AM and said, "Let's make the coffee before we lose electricity!" Made coffee, machine beeped to let us know it was done, and the lights went off for the next week! (Not to mention spitting windows!)

3) I'm putting Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne together, because one just compounded the problems caused by the other!

4) Hurricane Irene (late 1990s)...the storm that gave Ft. Lauderdale a direct hit yet we never were placed under watch, let alone warning! Dismissed my students at noon and drove home as the eye came over Broward County!

5) Andrew of course...but I was staying in Boca, so I didn't realize how bad it was until my husband's family in Homestead got in touch and told us they had lost all of the brand-new homes they had just moved into!

There were other memorable weather events in Colorado, but once you go through mulitiple hurricanes, those memories tend to get pushed down memory lane!
Once again, please excuse the ignorance here, but what role does an El Nino Year play in a Drought that we are having in California right now? Does that mean we're going to have a serious rainy fall in Northern CA? It sure would be nice....
Quoting 144. ProphetessofDoom:

Good morning all!

Ok, can't help myself! I have to add my top 5!

1) The Denver Blizzard of 1982...we went to sleep thinking 3-6" and woke up to 36" of snow and a whole lot of cursing from my mother!

2) Hurricane Wilma...Turned to my husband at 7 AM and said, "Let's make the coffee before we lose electricity!" Made coffee, machine beeped to let us know it was done, and the lights went off for the next week! (Not to mention spitting windows!)

3) I'm putting Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne together, because one just compounded the problems caused by the other!

4) Hurricane Irene (late 1990s)...the storm that gave Ft. Lauderdale a direct hit yet we never were placed under watch, let alone warning! Dismissed my students at noon and drove home as the eye came over Broward County!

5) Andrew of course...but I was staying in Boca, so I didn't realize how bad it was until my husband's family in Homestead got in touch and told us they had lost all of the brand-new homes they had just moved into!

There were other memorable weather events in Colorado, but once you go through mulitiple hurricanes, those memories tend to get pushed down memory lane!
Hello POD..I remember all of those, even the Denver Blizzard, but was in Florida at the time. Maybe later I will post 5..Most here know I will put Charley at the top.
Changing climate prompts boreal forest shift

June 11, 2015
Source:
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Summary:
With warming summer temperatures across Alaska, white spruce tree growth in Interior Alaska has declined to record low levels, while the same species in Western Alaska is growing better than ever measured before. According to researchers, 'The movement of an entire biome is often hypothesized in models of probable future climate, but the Alaska boreal forest is actually shifting today, and the process is well underway.'


Link
Tropical Storm CARLOS

7:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015
Location: 14.7°N 100.8°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
149. flsky
Mine are hurricanes also: Jeanne in 2004 and Rita in 2005. Oh, also experienced a couple of pretty bad droughts in CA. Um, do earthquakes count?

Quoting 121. BahaHurican:

Just about all of my wx memories are hurricane related:

1. Hurricane David, 1979
2. Hurricane Andrew 1992
3. Hurricane Floyd, 1999
4. Hurricane Michelle, 2001

The fifth one is a blizzard that hit the east coast in early January 1988. While it wasn't a record snowfall of any kind, it was the worst snowstorm I have experienced, and it was made worse by the fact that I was flying from Nassau to Greensboro, NC on the day it happened. Airports in NC were closed while we were still en route, and we ended up diverting to Baltimore, of all places. For a while it seemed I, along with others from my flight, were destined to sleep on the floor in the airport. However at the last minute the powers that be opened Greensboro's airport and a plane load of returning students, airline employees and desperate Piedmont residents boarded. When we landed in Greensboro, I got a taxi to my place, where the driver had to drive up onto the lawn to get me close enough to the porch so I could get inside ... an unforgettable experience that was for an inexperienced islander whose idea of "cold" was anything below 70 degrees .... and precipitation ran off to low-lying places ...
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 14h14 hours ago
Current downwelling Kelvin wave now stronger than big one in Apr- lots of EPac warming likely coming #climate #ElNino


Very impressive warm pool now underway!

I noticed that about a week ago..I was wonder how far east it will go. If it does make it all the way...We " might" have a large event.
Hmm... five most important weather memories. It's hard to pick five, but let's give it a whirl.

1) Andover, KS Tornado April 26, 1991 - I was only 6 but it's a day I've always remembered. I was visiting my grandparents in Wichita, KS for my little brothers birthday. It's hard to forget sleeping with your entire extended family (over 25 people) in the basement, especially since my baby sister was put in the dryer. So much for that normal family gathering. My uncle and father were watching the tornado from the front porch, which caused a little unease in the family to say the least.

2) Tropical Storm Fay, Tallahassee FL - August 22, 2009 - Tallahassee received over 12 inches of rain during the storm. I received a phone call from the state psych hospital I worked as a Music Therapist at, begging me to come in because the patients were restless. It was my Saturday to work, so I dutifully got in my car and began my epic journey. T minus 32 miles and counting. After travelling for an hour, and making it approximately 2 miles from my apartment I approached portion of Capital Circle with two lanes washed out. At this point, I turned around, went home and apologetically called the hospital. When I did, I couldn't reach anyone. Turns out, the hospital was hit by a tornado and was being evacuated during the storm.

3) Snowmageddon - Chaptico, MD - February 2010 - It is due to this storm that I could live the rest of my life never seeing snow and be perfectly happy about it. We received nearly 3 feet of snow, over the course of a week during 3 separate snow storms (including my only ever experience under a Blizzard warning). There was a two week period where I never worked consecutive days because of the snow. We lived in rural environment, with a painfully long driveway. It took myself, and my 5 male room mates over 8 hours to shovel the drive way. It then turned into an ice chute. We lost heat and power for over a week. Thankfully, we had a kerosene heater and plenty of blankets!

4) Hurricane Isabel - Great Mills, MD - September 2003 - I was in college at East Carolina University in Greenville, NC at the time. Greenville was in the direct path of the storm. As result the university closed for 3 days and strongly encouraged everyone who could leave, to leave. So I promptly took the opportunity to sneak back to MD to stay with my then boyfriend (now husband). The storm caused more damage in MD than in NC, even though we were far removed from the landfall location. I had to fly to Kansas the next day, from Raleigh. My normal 4 hour drive, took 9 hours. I caught my plane by the skin of my teeth... Flooded I95, trees blocking roads, electrical wires everywhere...

5) Severe Thunderstorm - Martin's Mountaintop, West Virginia - Mid July about 10 years ago - I was camping at a very large bluegrass (aka lots of hippies) festival on the top of a mountain. Approximately ten thousand people set up an over night tent city, so they could watch over 100 music concerts spread out over a four day weekend. I was sitting on the hill at the amphitheatre astutely watching the clouds. They had "that look" to me. I watched as the caps broke, and then the clouds got that greenish hue. I grabbed my then boyfriend, and we began to head back to our tent to prepare. All my friends, whom I warned, opted to stay and watch the show. Needless to say, when the pebble sized hail, 70+mph winds, torrential rain, and incessant lightning arrived, I was very glad to have prepared my camp site, and walked to my car. It was absolutely priceless watching hippies run after their tents rolling away in the wind. People spent hours trying to find their belongings afterwards...
152. flsky
Where are you??

Quoting 143. win1gamegiantsplease:

Blue skies for the most part except to the southeast, thundering right now with storms off the coast.
Quoting 151. Seattleite:

Hmm... five most important weather memories. It's hard to pick five, but let's give it a whirl.

1) Andover, KS Tornado April 26, 1991 - I was only 6 but it's a day I've always remembered. I was visiting my grandparents in Wichita, KS for my little brothers birthday. It's hard to forget sleeping with your entire extended family (over 25 people) in the basement, especially since my baby sister was put in the dryer.

Uh, what?
Quoting 150. hydrus:

I noticed that about a week ago..I was wonder how far east it will go. If it does make it all the way...We " might" have a large event.


Models atleast most agree this event will come close to the 1997 event. Will we surpass it I don't know given the state of the SOI right now and also the May PDO came in even lower than April at 1.20 so this event likely be more similar to the 1982/1983 or 1977/1978 event instead but well see how it goes.

I'd say we get a ONI peak anywhere from 1.8C to 2.1C. 1997 peaked at 2.3C so I think we fall a little short but still this is going to be a major event no matter how you slice it.
Quoting 145. TracySaunders:

Once again, please excuse the ignorance here, but what role does an El Nino Year play in a Drought that we are having in California right now? Does that mean we're going to have a serious rainy fall in Northern CA? It sure would be nice....
The evidence that we have now is that a strong El Nino will likely give substantial rains to California this winter. It's pretty much a toss-up if it's a weak to moderate event. Until we know how big of an El Nino this will be, you really can't make a better prediction than that. My own guess is that it will be a substantial rainfall event this winter, but that's just a guess.
Quoting 132. yoboi:

Top 5 AGW events for me....

1. CO2 over 400 ppm
2. Extra rain
3. Record tomato crop
4. Record cucumber crop
5. Record rice yields
You are such a putz....
Quoting 155. tampabaymatt:



Lol. My sister was only 6 months old. She kept waking up because of all the commotion among the adults. So they threw a few blankets in the dryer, laid the baby on top and let her sleep. I found it absolutely hilarious and kept laughing about it. The adults kept scolding me, because apparently this wasn't the time to laugh...
Quoting 157. sar2401:

The evidence that we have now is that a strong El Nino will likely give substantial rains to California this winter. It's pretty much a toss-up if it's a weak to moderate event. Until we know how big of an El Nino this will be, you really can't make a better prediction than that. My own guess is that it will be a substantial rainfall event this winter, but that's just a guess.


Personally, I'm starting to get very concerned about this El Nino. If things keep trending in the strong direction, that will likely mean a very wet winter for FL with some severe storms. I have already received 15.26" in the last 30 days, and as Tampa Bay continues to be the bullseye for all of the summer sea breeze convection, it appears to be a very wet summer at my location. If we get a lot of rain this winter with no chance to dry out, the Tampa Bay area may have some catastrophic flooding. Not to mention it's been pretty wet overall the past 2+ years.
161. flsky
It's so interesting reading everyone's memorable weather experiences. It rather illustrates why this site is such a favorite.
Quoting 132. yoboi:

Top 5 AGW events for me....

1. CO2 over 400 ppm
2. Extra rain
3. Record tomato crop
4. Record cucumber crop
5. Record rice yields

Boooooo! Come on, yoboi, everyone's shared some really memorable experiences. It's an interesting blog this morning. Why not join in?
The big five in weather memories:

1) April Fools Day flooding, 1987. A big flood for Maine. I was seven years old and can vividly remember that almost every road in my town had a washout or water over the road. An ice jam let go on one of the rivers and took out a key bridge that my school bus crossed so that for the next year, I had an extra twenty minutes going to school and coming home as we had to detour eight miles south to another bridge. The floods left huge twisted piles of trees in the river bottoms that could still be seen when I graduated high school over ten years later.

2) No name blizzard, December 2003 (Maine). What was supposed to be a run of the mill snowstorm (12 to 14 inches), ended up dropping 35 inches overnight and topped out at 41 inches at my parents house. It took my dad and I sixteen hours over two days to plow the lot at his car dealership, the whole first row of cars was completely buried and had to be dug out by hand, one at a time.

3) Tropical Storm Allison. I was a cadet on Junior Cruise at Maine Maritime Academy and our training ship was anchored off of Galveston in preparation to head into port. When the storm blew up faster than expected, they closed the port and we attempted to ride it out at anchor. The seas quickly built up to almost 20 feet and when you draw 25 feet of water and are anchored in 50 feet, the danger of bottoming out becomes very real. We pulled up both hooks and spent the night circling in deeper water and throwing up.

4) Ice Storm of 1998 (Maine). I was a senior in high school and ended up getting six days out of school, right after the Christmas holiday. The night it got real bad, I was on the garage roof shoveling snow from previous storms and the sky kept lighting up in beautiful pinks, blues, greens, etc. as power transformers overloaded and exploded. We were lucky and only lost power for a few hours, but my English teacher had no electricity for five weeks, had 40 trees down on her 1/4 mile driveway and all the pipes in her house froze and exploded.

5) No name windstorm (February 2010 - Maine). Weather forecast for the evening of February 27th of that year for Portland down to Portsmouth said "very strong winds, sustained at 60 mph with gusts to 80 mph". No one really believed it, but on the drive home from a friends house that evening it was blowing 50mph easily. Streets signs, trash cans, tree limbs, shingles, etc kept flying past in the view of my headlights and when I got home I tried to sleep in the basement while listening to the absolute scream of the wind. Portland recorded a gust to 78 mph before the power went out at the airport and Isles of Shoals recorded a gust to 91mph. Thousands of trees down and several blocks of Hampton Beach burned to the ground that night.
Quoting 149. flsky:

Mine are hurricanes also: Jeanne in 2004 and Rita in 2005. Oh, also experienced a couple of pretty bad droughts in CA. Um, do earthquakes count?



Sure, why not. Tornado6042008X started this as the '5 most exciting weather days', but it's morphed a bit. It's not really a stretch to include other natural events. Besides, I'm enjoying reading these, so if people have earthquake/tsunami/volcano/etc. stories, I'd read them. I think others would like to hear about them as well.
Up to 7 now; concur with Tropical Storm Fay in Tallahassee in 2009. The Mother in Law was visiting and "insisted" that I go in the backyard and sandbag the back doors from the water rising from the stream in the back of the property. Loaded some bags in the pick-up and drove into the back-yard while she "directed" where I should place them while the winds and rains started to pick-up. Finished the job, got into the truck, and it sank in the muddy back-yard. Had to wait 3 days for the waters to recede and a neighbor with a tractor pulled the truck out. Thank God the waters stayed a few inches below the bottom of the truck doors but is was close and I was silently cursing out the MIL in my head all three days...............................Lol.
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Personally, I'm starting to get very concerned about this El Nino. If things keep trending in the strong direction, that will likely mean a very wet winter for FL with some severe storms. I have already received 15.26" in the last 30 days, and as Tampa Bay continues to be the bullseye for all of the summer sea breeze convection, it appears to be a very wet summer at my location. If we get a lot of rain this winter with no chance to dry out, the Tampa Bay area may have some catastrophic flooding. Not to mention it's been pretty wet overall the past 2+ years.


Should be concerned as well as everyone else in FL. This Fall/Winter will be very interesting as stronger El-Nino typically yield more rain during the cooler months than in the Summer. Also this rain sometimes comes with tornadoes which are typically strong during El-Nino episodes.
My Top 5 Weather Memories in Chronological Order as Best as I can Remember!

1. August, 1995 Hurricane Erin goes directly over my house, destroys shed in back yard and takes trees down all over town.

2. October, 1995 Hurricane Opal hits area, during evacuation remember being stranded on Cinco Bayou bridge with winds shaking the bridge and sailboats breaking loose from their moorings and hitting the bridge. Area sustains a lot of flood and tree damage.

3. August, 2004 Hurricane Ivan hits area, spent night at friends house listening to wind howl all night, my own house sustained roof damage, lots of homes destroyed in the area by storm surge.

4. July, 2005 Hurricane Dennis hits 2 months after moving into custom built home in water front neighborhood, house is elevated and luckily water only get 2' high in the garage which we emptied before storm.

5. Tie - January, 2014 Ice Storm shuts Fort Walton Beach down for 2 days, people were sledding down local bridges.

5. Tie - April, 2014 Fort Walton Beach flooding, after a wet Spring overnight rains brought over 20" of rain in places and closed the area down for 2 days as bridges and roads were washed out all over the area. My truck gets flooded trying to find a safe way home through Eglin Range, bad idea!
We could have our first 1.5C update by the CPC next Monday for Nino 3.4. El-Nino is now beginning to take on an impressive look to it.

Me:

1. Snow in Tampa January 1977 (first time I had ever seen snow).
2. Hurricane Elena. Even though it wasn't horrible, the anticipation and excitement was off the charts.
3. Francis and Jeanne. They were basically the same storm.
4. Experiencing 124 degree temperature at Hoover Damn. Coming from Florida I never thought the desert heat was that bad. That one trip changed my mind.
5. Pinellas Park F3 tornado in 1992. I remember it raining pieces of houses in my yard.
"The seas quickly built up to almost 20 feet and when you draw 25 feet of water and are anchored in 50 feet, the danger of bottoming out becomes very real."

I haven't got much boating/sailing experience, so I had to think about this for a minute. Learn something new every day here!
Here’s the plan to save New Orleans and the Gulf Coast


The Louisiana Gulf Coast and the city of New Orleans are in trouble. Land there is sinking below sea level rapidly, faster than anywhere else in the world, at rates that scientists predict the rest of the world will see only at the end of this century.

This erosion has been going on since the Mississippi was re-routed in 1932 to protect communities from the river's seasonal flooding — but those same floods used to carry sediment that restored land washed out to sea by erosion and storms.

About 2,000 square miles of Louisiana have disappeared from the coast already. Climate change and the more frequent powerful storms that are expected as result, along with rising sea levels, are expected to exacerbate these problems.

Fortunately, there is a master plan in place to save the Gulf Coast. But it's a 50-year, $50 billion plan, and so far, the money is not there.

Here's the official plan to save the coast:


Read more: Link
Quoting 98. sar2401:

All I remember from the el Nino of 1997-98 was yet another massive round of California flooding, culminating with the worst rains ever experienced in northern California on New Year's Day, 1998. The flooding and landslides were so widespread that we had to get help from all over the west as mutual aid because we just didn't have the resources to handle it. I think a total of 115,000 to 120,000 people ended up getting evacuated. Ten people died, including one of our first responders, and it was the first time in history that every single county in northern California had been declared a disaster area. We had bad floods in 1982, 86, 95, and now 98. I thought this was just going to be a way of life. I had no way of knowing that the 1998 flood was to be the last of the big flood disasters right up until today, so it's been almost 17 years now. Will history repeat itself if we really do get a strong El Nino? I don't know, but, if I still lived there, I'd be checking my water wings for leaks. :-)


Although there was no snow the DC winter of 97-98 was one of our wettest. A March rainstorm was the coup-de-grace producing 4" overnight on already saturated soils and causing the sanitary sewer to back up (from excessive runuff uphill) and
flood my basement with something much worse than water. I slept through it and just found the results the next morning. But that was my only weather problem of the winter.
Quoting 167. 69Viking:

My Top 5 Weather Memories in Chronological Order as Best as I can Remember!

1. August, 1995 Hurricane Erin goes directly over my house, destroys shed in back yard and takes trees down all over town.

2. October, 1995 Hurricane Opal hits area, during evacuation remember being stranded on Cinco Bayou bridge with winds shaking the bridge and sailboats breaking loose from their moorings and hitting the bridge. Area sustains a lot of flood and tree damage.

3. August, 2004 Hurricane Ivan hits area, spent night at friends house listening to wind howl all night, my own house sustained roof damage, lots of homes destroyed in the area by storm surge.

4. July, 2005 Hurricane Dennis hits 2 months after moving into custom built home in water front neighborhood, house is elevated and luckily water only get 2' high in the garage which we emptied before storm.

5. Tie - January, 2014 Ice Storm shuts Fort Walton Beach down for 2 days, people were sledding down local bridges.

5. Tie - April, 2014 Fort Walton Beach flooding, after a wet Spring overnight rains brought over 20" of rain in places and closed the area down for 2 days as bridges and roads were washed out all over the area. My truck gets flooded trying to find a safe way home through Eglin Range, bad idea!


Where's Ivan on that list?
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Personally, I'm starting to get very concerned about this El Nino. If things keep trending in the strong direction, that will likely mean a very wet winter for FL with some severe storms. I have already received 15.26" in the last 30 days, and as Tampa Bay continues to be the bullseye for all of the summer sea breeze convection, it appears to be a very wet summer at my location. If we get a lot of rain this winter with no chance to dry out, the Tampa Bay area may have some catastrophic flooding. Not to mention it's been pretty wet overall the past 2+ years.


One good thing about Florida is the sandy soil drains fast and doesn't promote a lot of run off so if heavy rains are spaced out over a few days we should be ok. It's when you get 20" of rain in less than 24 hours after days of heavy rain that causes problems.
Quoting 173. StormTrackerScott:



Where's Ivan on that list?


#3
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Personally, I'm starting to get very concerned about this El Nino. If things keep trending in the strong direction, that will likely mean a very wet winter for FL with some severe storms. I have already received 15.26" in the last 30 days, and as Tampa Bay continues to be the bullseye for all of the summer sea breeze convection, it appears to be a very wet summer at my location. If we get a lot of rain this winter with no chance to dry out, the Tampa Bay area may have some catastrophic flooding. Not to mention it's been pretty wet overall the past 2+ years.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 days. I think we see a pattern reversal as the Bermuda high strengthens and shifts west, giving all of the eastern US near to record high temperatures. The Bermuda high really hasn't played a big role in terms of weather in the east over the past two years but I think the hot summers of the 50's may be about to make a comeback.
This stuff from a "Leader" is why the rest of the World believe we are this stupid.

History will not treat Inhofe and His ilk well.

They chose, "poorly".



Texas Congressman Lamar Smith Declares War on NASA and EPA Climate Science Research

By Kyla Mandel • Thursday, June 11, 2015 - 13:39


Lamar Smith, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives, has declared war on the Obama administration, NASA and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to undermine attempts to prevent dangerous climate change, report Kyla Mandel and Brendan Montague from Washington DC, USA.

Speaking at the Heartland Institute’s climate denier conference in Washington DC today, the Texas congressman described how three subpoenas for EPA staff emails and texts have now been issued following claims about “secret emails” and personal use of email accounts by the agency.

This follows a similar-spirited freedom of information request submitted to the EPA by Chris Horner, a senior legal fellow for the Energy and Environment Legal Institute supported by the ExxonMobil funded Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Smith, chairman of the science, space and technology committee said at the conference that “Regulation should be based on sound science not science fiction.”

“The science is clear and overwhelming but not in the way the President says. The fact is there is little evidence that climate change causes extreme weather events.”

Clean Power Plan

Smith’s speech comes only two days after a federal court dismissed a lawsuit by the nation’s largest coal companies and 14 coal-producing states that sought to block President Obama’s clamp-down on power plant emissions.

“The president’s power plan is nothing more than a power play. It will give the government more control over Americans’ daily lives. These regulations stifle economic growth, destroy jobs and increase energy prices,” said Smith.

He continued: “The EPA justify their dictatorial approach by claiming regulations will slow global climate change and reduce carbon emissions. But heavy handed regulation and arbitrary emission targets will do lasting damage to our economy all for little environment impact.”


In an effort to counter the EPA’s “most aggressive regulatory agenda in its 40 year history,” Smith’s Secret Science Reform Act was passed by the House in March to prohibit the EPA form implementing a regulation unless it makes public all related data, scientific analyses and materials.

Smith argues the bill will increase transparency and stop the EPA using “hidden and flawed” science. However, 40 scientific institutions and universities have now opposed the bill arguing it will severely hamper the EPA form carrying out its mission to protect public health and the environment.

Lord Monckton praised Smith’s speech as “the best informed, most passionate and splendid speeches on climate I have every heard from any politician.”

Monckton joined Smith in his attack on science in calling for a Congressional investigation into the conduct of the Smithsonian and Harvard University in their treatment of Willie Soon, who failed to disclose conflicts of interest in his research funded by ExxonMobil.

Cut Off The Money

In response to audience calls to “cut off the money” from climate change research Smith highlighted the fact that NASA’s budget on earth science was cut by 40 percent just last week. This was met with cheers and applause from the room.

He added: “The second cut we made that you will appreciate [is to the] National Science Foundation, [which] we also have jurisdiction for, we reset [its] priorities, which we are entitled to do.

“We moved a lot of money out of the social science into the hard sciences that typically bear results. We’re trying to get the NSF out of the business of awarding grants such as £800,000 for someone to write an off-broadway musical on climate change.”

Heartland Activists

Earlier in the day, the conference was kicked-off by Senator James Inhofe, who now chairs the Senate environment and public works committee despite calling global warming “the greatest hoax every perpetrated on the American people.”

Inhofe urged Heartland activists to go out and fight against what he called “the myth of global warming.”

“If you look at the Republican [Presidential] candidates, they’re all denying this stuff,” Inhofe said. “They’re all with people in this room.”

He continued: “This is where you guys come in now, you’re all activists, I really mean that.”

Inhofe, whose message was that “God is still up there”, later told reports that the Pope Francis should butt out of climate change: “The pope ought to stay with his job, and we’ll stay with ours.”

He concluded his speech with a call to arms: “We’ve got a country we’ve got to save, and we’ve got to do it together. If you join us, if we do this as a team, we’ll be doing the Lord’s work and he will richly bless you for it. Amen.”


I've been watching this for a few days and the models have been consistent with a system developing and crossing the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche.




P.S. Another crack about my age and I'll give you all an event you'll never forget!! :):)
Two more I almost forgot about.

6. Hurricane Bob (Brunswick Maine). It was the 1991 Maine Scout Jamboree. Something like 2,000 scouts camped on a dis-used taxiway at Brunswick Naval Air Station. Slight problem: hard to set up a tent went its gusting 50mph sideways. Plenty of pictures on the evening news of scouts chasing tents as they flipped across the runway aprons while things fell out. One kid was unlucky enough to be sitting in a porta-potty when it tipped over onto the door a slid 75 feet while all the "stuff" in the tank came out. My tent collapsed in the middle of the night and I woke looking through the screen window with water falling on my face.

7. Severe Thunderstorms (Fort A.P. Hill Virginia). This time it was the 1993 National Scout Jamboree. One day of non-stop heavy weather. Pouring buckets for hours. The Sub camp below us flooded to five feet deep and I can remember scouts using foot lockers as canoes to paddle around and collect soaked belongings. Ten miles away a tornado tore apart a Wal-Mart and my campsite was sitting on clay, so all the tent poles and picnic tables sank into the ooze and had to be chopped out the next day when the sun baked the ground rock solid.
Quoting 178. Grothar:

I've been watching this for a few days and the models have been consistent with a system developing and crossing the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche.




P.S. Another crack about my age and I'll give you all an event you'll never forget!! :):)


There's already a good deal of energy with some storms in the Gulf.
Quoting 177. Patrap:

This stuff from a "Leader" is why the rest of the World believe we are this stupid.

History will not treat Inhofe and His ilk well.

They chose, "poorly".



Texas Congressman Lamar Smith Declares War on NASA and EPA Climate Science Research

By Kyla Mandel • Thursday, June 11, 2015 - 13:39


Lamar Smith, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives, has declared war on the Obama administration, NASA and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to undermine attempts to prevent dangerous climate change, report Kyla Mandel and Brendan Montague from Washington DC, USA.

Speaking at the Heartland Institute’s climate denier conference in Washington DC today, the Texas congressman described how three subpoenas for EPA staff emails and texts have now been issued following claims about “secret emails” and personal use of email accounts by the agency.

This follows a similar-spirited freedom of information request submitted to the EPA by Chris Horner, a senior legal fellow for the Energy and Environment Legal Institute supported by the ExxonMobil funded Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Smith, chairman of the science, space and technology committee said at the conference that “Regulation should be based on sound science not science fiction.”

“The science is clear and overwhelming but not in the way the President says. The fact is there is little evidence that climate change causes extreme weather events.”

Clean Power Plan

Smith’s speech comes only two days after a federal court dismissed a lawsuit by the nation’s largest coal companies and 14 coal-producing states that sought to block President Obama’s clamp-down on power plant emissions.

“The president’s power plan is nothing more than a power play. It will give the government more control over Americans’ daily lives. These regulations stifle economic growth, destroy jobs and increase energy prices,” said Smith.

He continued: “The EPA justify their dictatorial approach by claiming regulations will slow global climate change and reduce carbon emissions. But heavy handed regulation and arbitrary emission targets will do lasting damage to our economy all for little environment impact.”


In an effort to counter the EPA’s “most aggressive regulatory agenda in its 40 year history,” Smith’s Secret Science Reform Act was passed by the House in March to prohibit the EPA form implementing a regulation unless it makes public all related data, scientific analyses and materials.

Smith argues the bill will increase transparency and stop the EPA using “hidden and flawed” science. However, 40 scientific institutions and universities have now opposed the bill arguing it will severely hamper the EPA form carrying out its mission to protect public health and the environment.

Lord Monckton praised Smith’s speech as “the best informed, most passionate and splendid speeches on climate I have every heard from any politician.”

Monckton joined Smith in his attack on science in calling for a Congressional investigation into the conduct of the Smithsonian and Harvard University in their treatment of Willie Soon, who failed to disclose conflicts of interest in his research funded by ExxonMobil.

Cut Off The Money

In response to audience calls to “cut off the money” from climate change research Smith highlighted the fact that NASA’s budget on earth science was cut by 40 percent just last week. This was met with cheers and applause from the room.

He added: “The second cut we made that you will appreciate [is to the] National Science Foundation, [which] we also have jurisdiction for, we reset [its] priorities, which we are entitled to do.

“We moved a lot of money out of the social science into the hard sciences that typically bear results. We’re trying to get the NSF out of the business of awarding grants such as £800,000 for someone to write an off-broadway musical on climate change.”

Heartland Activists

Earlier in the day, the conference was kicked-off by Senator James Inhofe, who now chairs the Senate environment and public works committee despite calling global warming “the greatest hoax every perpetrated on the American people.”

Inhofe urged Heartland activists to go out and fight against what he called “the myth of global warming.”

“If you look at the Republican [Presidential] candidates, they’re all denying this stuff,” Inhofe said. “They’re all with people in this room.”

He continued: “This is where you guys come in now, you’re all activists, I really mean that.”

Inhofe, whose message was that “God is still up there”, later told reports that the Pope Francis should butt out of climate change: “The pope ought to stay with his job, and we’ll stay with ours.”

He concluded his speech with a call to arms: “We’ve got a country we’ve got to save, and we’ve got to do it together. If you join us, if we do this as a team, we’ll be doing the Lord’s work and he will richly bless you for it. Amen.”






Seems many are slipping into ignorance and delusion.
I hope a new Dark Age in not upon us.
The Bewildered Herd does know something is wrong, but the stories and myths seem out of step with reality.
Re: post 177 Patrap:
Thanks for the post. My appetite is shot for the rest of the day.
Quoting 167. 69Viking:

My Top 5 Weather Memories in Chronological Order as Best as I can Remember!

1. August, 1995 Hurricane Erin goes directly over my house, destroys shed in back yard and takes trees down all over town.

2. October, 1995 Hurricane Opal hits area, during evacuation remember being stranded on Cinco Bayou bridge with winds shaking the bridge and sailboats breaking loose from their moorings and hitting the bridge. Area sustains a lot of flood and tree damage.

3. August, 2004 Hurricane Ivan hits area, spent night at friends house listening to wind howl all night, my own house sustained roof damage, lots of homes destroyed in the area by storm surge.

4. July, 2005 Hurricane Dennis hits 2 months after moving into custom built home in water front neighborhood, house is elevated and luckily water only get 2' high in the garage which we emptied before storm.

5. Tie - January, 2014 Ice Storm shuts Fort Walton Beach down for 2 days, people were sledding down local bridges.

5. Tie - April, 2014 Fort Walton Beach flooding, after a wet Spring overnight rains brought over 20" of rain in places and closed the area down for 2 days as bridges and roads were washed out all over the area. My truck gets flooded trying to find a safe way home through Eglin Range, bad idea!
I really had forgotten about our floods in April of last year and our ice/snowstorm. Having been in much bigger events for both of those phenomena, they didn't make my list but, in terms of disruption down here, they were pretty bad. None of the big snowstorms I was in Cleveland ever shut down the town longer than our storm last January. The rains and floods of April 30 were a short event but they disrupted things for days as well. Down here it seems that it's not just the storm but the effect it has on people that make it a bigger deal. I got here just after Ivan so I didn't have to go through that, but the damage was still very apparent. Because Katrina was such a huge event, the effects on Alabama kind of got lost, but there was considerable damage from that storm as well.
New Article from ScienceMag News outlining in great detail the issue noted by Patrap below as to the current battle winding up between the EPA and the Energy lobby; a good read:

http://news.sciencemag.org/policy/2015/06/wake-co urt-defeat-opponents-obama-s-climate-rule-tee-seve n-more-attacks
Quoting 176. sar2401:

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 days. I think we see a pattern reversal as the Bermuda high strengthens and shifts west, giving all of the eastern US near to record high temperatures. The Bermuda high really hasn't played a big role in terms of weather in the east over the past two years but I think the hot summers of the 50's may be about to make a comeback.


We need to watch that high because if anything does decide to get going north of the Caribbean then we could have a tropical system on a direct path toward FL. Pretty scary to think about but I'm starting to get a little concerned as there is some support from the CFS of this set up.

Here is the CFS August precip anomalies


Here is the CFS pressure pattern across the US. We could be set up for a interesting pattern if a tropical system does indeed form.


Shear is also expect to be low across FL & the SW Atlantic too.
Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:



Its interesting as I pointed this out too as the storms here across parts of the interior have been vicious with lots of trees coming down lately. Last time I saw something like this was 2004. Oddly enough look at this on the CFSv2 for August notice the precip anomalies from Africa over to FL. Very interesting as there may not be many storms but the ones that form we will need to watch very closely.

This could be concerning given the current strength of this persistent ridge off the Mid Atlantic.

August





Looks like a classic CAPE VERDE storm may come close to us sometime in august (some green in the MDR)... developing near Africa, then moving W to WNW accross the MDR towards the N Leewards, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, and US east coast.

Would be very very interesting!!
Ocean investigators set their sights on Pacific Ocean 'blob'

A huge swath of unusually warm water that has drawn tropical fish and turtles to the normally cool West Coast over the past year has grown to the biggest and longest-lasting ocean temperature anomaly on record, researchers now say, profoundly affecting climate and marine life from Baja California to Alaska.

Researchers remain uncertain what caused the mass of warm seawater they simply call "the blob," or what it'll mean long term for the West Coast climate. But they agree it's imperative to better understand its impact, as it may be linked to everything from California's drought to record numbers of marine mammals washing up on Northern California shores.


Link
Quoting 182. ACSeattle:

Re: post 177 Patrap:
Thanks for the post. My appetite is shot for the rest of the day.



Sowwy bout dat. When in NOLA, I'll treat yas to Lunch.

But this ignorance needs to go viral.

And it will.

They are so bent on stupid it alarms this Man.

Greatly.
Quoting 176. sar2401:

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 days. I think we see a pattern reversal as the Bermuda high strengthens and shifts west, giving all of the eastern US near to record high temperatures. The Bermuda high really hasn't played a big role in terms of weather in the east over the past two years but I think the hot summers of the 50's may be about to make a comeback.


That type of pattern keeps the west coast of FL very wet.
Quoting 186. CaribBoy:



Looks like a storm may come close to us sometime in august (some green in the MDR)


CFS is showing there maybe a 3 to 4 week window of favorable development across the MDR in August. After that though MDR shuts down for September as shear strengthens. Well See.
191. flsky
My two most frightening earthquakes were in CA. Early 70s a bad one hit and knocked over my infant son's crib. Never knew i could run from one room to the next so fast. He was ok, but a parent never wants to see their baby splayed on the floor under a heavy wooden crib. Then when the Northridge quake hit I was living in a highrise in downtown LA. I was violently shaken awake and in a sudden panic because i wanted to get down beside the bed for cover, but had large mirrored closet doors to one side and floor to ceiling windows on the other. I guess I froze and luckily nothing shattered. Most things were tipped over throughout my home and there were very large cracks in the cement walls. A glass-enclosed stairway also separated from the front of the building. This was 15 miles from the epicenter. I had many other"fun" earthquake experiences during my decades in CA, but these two are the most vivid in my memory.


Quoting 164. LAbonbon:


Sure, why not. Tornado6042008X started this as the '5 most exciting weather days', but it's morphed a bit. It's not really a stretch to include other natural events. Besides, I'm enjoying reading these, so if people have earthquake/tsunami/volcano/etc. stories, I'd read them. I think others would like to hear about them as well.
Quoting 177. Patrap:

“the myth of global warming”... “God is still up there”
Myth, you say? SMH.
Shuts down for September?

Gimmee a break, as that is the meat of the CV rollers.

Climatology would disagree greatly.



Quoting 180. 69Viking:



There's already a good deal of energy with some storms in the Gulf.
The NCEP ensemble has done a terrible job this year. It seems to pick up every area of even slightly low pressure and develops it into a storm. The same model developed the tropical storm from two weeks ago going to Florida and the Bahamas and Carlos crossing Mexico into the Bay of Campeche.The conditions are not good for anything to develop in the Gulf of Honduras let alone cross the Yucatan into the Bay of Campheche
Quoting 192. SouthTampa:

Myth, you say? SMH.


Dat irony burned my Cerebral Cortex I think.

I smelled smoke for a minute.
Quoting 177. Patrap:

This stuff from a "Leader" is why the rest of the World believe we are this stupid.

History will not treat Inhofe and His ilk well.

They chose, "poorly".



Texas Congressman Lamar Smith Declares War on NASA and EPA Climate Science Research

By Kyla Mandel • Thursday, June 11, 2015 - 13:39


Lamar Smith, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives, has declared war on the Obama administration, NASA and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to undermine attempts to prevent dangerous climate change, report Kyla Mandel and Brendan Montague from Washington DC, USA.

Speaking at the Heartland Institute’s climate denier conference in Washington DC today, the Texas congressman described how three subpoenas for EPA staff emails and texts have now been issued following claims about “secret emails” and personal use of email accounts by the agency.

This follows a similar-spirited freedom of information request submitted to the EPA by Chris Horner, a senior legal fellow for the Energy and Environment Legal Institute supported by the ExxonMobil funded Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Smith, chairman of the science, space and technology committee said at the conference that “Regulation should be based on sound science not science fiction.”

“The science is clear and overwhelming but not in the way the President says. The fact is there is little evidence that climate change causes extreme weather events.”

Clean Power Plan

Smith’s speech comes only two days after a federal court dismissed a lawsuit by the nation’s largest coal companies and 14 coal-producing states that sought to block President Obama’s clamp-down on power plant emissions.

“The president’s power plan is nothing more than a power play. It will give the government more control over Americans’ daily lives. These regulations stifle economic growth, destroy jobs and increase energy prices,” said Smith.

He continued: “The EPA justify their dictatorial approach by claiming regulations will slow global climate change and reduce carbon emissions. But heavy handed regulation and arbitrary emission targets will do lasting damage to our economy all for little environment impact.”


In an effort to counter the EPA’s “most aggressive regulatory agenda in its 40 year history,” Smith’s Secret Science Reform Act was passed by the House in March to prohibit the EPA form implementing a regulation unless it makes public all related data, scientific analyses and materials.

Smith argues the bill will increase transparency and stop the EPA using “hidden and flawed” science. However, 40 scientific institutions and universities have now opposed the bill arguing it will severely hamper the EPA form carrying out its mission to protect public health and the environment.

Lord Monckton praised Smith’s speech as “the best informed, most passionate and splendid speeches on climate I have every heard from any politician.”

Monckton joined Smith in his attack on science in calling for a Congressional investigation into the conduct of the Smithsonian and Harvard University in their treatment of Willie Soon, who failed to disclose conflicts of interest in his research funded by ExxonMobil.

Cut Off The Money

In response to audience calls to “cut off the money” from climate change research Smith highlighted the fact that NASA’s budget on earth science was cut by 40 percent just last week. This was met with cheers and applause from the room.

He added: “The second cut we made that you will appreciate [is to the] National Science Foundation, [which] we also have jurisdiction for, we reset [its] priorities, which we are entitled to do.

“We moved a lot of money out of the social science into the hard sciences that typically bear results. We’re trying to get the NSF out of the business of awarding grants such as £800,000 for someone to write an off-broadway musical on climate change.”

Heartland Activists

Earlier in the day, the conference was kicked-off by Senator James Inhofe, who now chairs the Senate environment and public works committee despite calling global warming “the greatest hoax every perpetrated on the American people.”

Inhofe urged Heartland activists to go out and fight against what he called “the myth of global warming.”

“If you look at the Republican [Presidential] candidates, they’re all denying this stuff,” Inhofe said. “They’re all with people in this room.”

He continued: “This is where you guys come in now, you’re all activists, I really mean that.”

Inhofe, whose message was that “God is still up there”, later told reports that the Pope Francis should butt out of climate change: “The pope ought to stay with his job, and we’ll stay with ours.”

He concluded his speech with a call to arms: “We’ve got a country we’ve got to save, and we’ve got to do it together. If you join us, if we do this as a team, we’ll be doing the Lord’s work and he will richly bless you for it. Amen.”





Texas for ya, Have a lot of folks still stuck in the past century
Quoting 193. Patrap:

Shuts down for September?

Gimmee a break, as that is the meat of the CV rollers.

Climatology would disagree greatly.






But we've seen very few storms east of the Lesser Antilles during September lately. So sad :(
Quoting 189. tampabaymatt:



That type of pattern keeps the west coast of FL very wet.
"Very wet" may be a matter of interpretation. Florida will still have a rainy season but the amounts should be closer to climatology than what you've seen so far.
I'm a little young for a real good top 5; I'll go top 4 :)

1. June 1, 2011 is definitely #1. Really the only time in my life I've been genuinely scared about a weather event (Springfield, MA tornado). The tornado dissipated to my west, but it was heading right towards me for awhile and the storm went straight over me while still severe.
2. February 8-9 2013 blizzard is my most memorable snow event, there's been plenty but that one's the best, 23" snow and 50 mph winds.
3. Record rains of March 2010- what a deluge month that was, ~20" of rain for the month!
4. Irene 2011- wasn't too bad but produced the highest sustained winds I've seen, quite a bit of tree damage.
Quoting 193. Patrap:

Shuts down for September?

Gimmee a break, as that is the meat of the CV rollers.

Climatology would disagree greatly.






Your smarter than that Pat. You gimmee a break. Have you read Doc's Blog? If El-Nino continues toward and passed strong threshold you best believe shear will become an increasing issue heading thru September as the Westerlies start to take hold due to a intensifying El-Nino. I really think it maybe August we have to watch for after that the MDR should more than likely struggle as anything that tries to form would be close to home there after.
Quoting 197. CaribBoy:



But we've seen very few storms east of the Lesser Antilles during September lately. So sad :(


Compounded by Strong El-Nino will only make conditions worse. if this were any other non strong El-Nino year then I would agree with Pat.
To dismiss a whole month, in the peak of the Season, is Ludicrous.

Easily.



All Godly, all loving....but tells the Pope of all religious figures....to butt out. Repubs be going away like the dinosaurs, lol
205. JRRP
Quoting 195. Patrap:



Dat irony burned my Cerebral Cortex I think.

I smelled smoke for a minute.
Actionable, Repeatable and verifiable = Myth; Cloudman with ephemeral whims = Reality? Either it's opposite day or these loons are bat-[redacted] crazy and need to be thrown in a padded room.
I will note, as a fan of science/weather with a degree in international politics, that the most interesting argument (not) that I have heard out there rear it's ugly head from time to time on climate change issues is that global warming is an international conspiracy designed to redistribute the world's wealth from the wealthy to the poor......I though that argument actually lost steam decades ago when Marxist-Communist theory lost the Cold War and certainly after China ditched it in favor of massive carbon emissions......................................
Quoting 199. ColoradoBob1:

.
What's with people posting a period? I see this from time to time.
Quoting 184. weathermanwannabe:

New Article from ScienceMag News outlining in great detail the issue noted by Patrap below as to the current battle winding up between the EPA and the Energy lobby; a good read:

http://news.sciencemag.org/policy/2015/06/wake-co urt-defeat-opponents-obama-s-climate-rule-tee-seve n-more-attacks

The Supreme Court lawsuit was nothing but a publicity stunt. No lawyer could have ever thought the court would rule against a "proposed" rule. Once the rule is finally issued, the real battle begins.
Thank you for sharing your experiences!  My top five weather events are tame compared to riding out a major or a flood but here goes:

1.  Blizzard of 78.  Still the most epic snow event of my life.  Several winters, the 90's and last winter for shear cold and snow get honorable mention.  It will be tough to beat "Larry".
2.  Gloria 1985.  Eye passed directly over house(CAT 1) -I will never forget that.  My love (and fear) of hurricanes is born.
3.  Severe storms in July 1985 triggering a Tornado (EF1) that wiped out half of my neighborhood!  I was not home at the time, but across town and watched the cell as it moved in.  If I were home at the time I would have been in danger from lumber falling from the sky from shredded roofs per my father (we played "outside" back then).  Another severe storm triggered a tornado in 1989 that was much worse but did not affect my neighborhood.   Rare events here in hilly NW CT.
4.  The Perfect Storm 1993.  Simply Amazing.  Thundersnow and white out conditions for hours.  Most intense snow storm ever for these parts.
5.  Halloween Nor'easter 2011.  Just a few months after Irene hammered us.  Halloween cancelled!?  Stood outside during the peak of the storm listening to trees snapping all over(still gives me the chills, never want to hear that again!), while cheering my Rock Maple on to carry the load and not break.  The maple held, but the Oak behind me did not and I came about 15ft from being crushed by it since my back was to it.  Needless to say I was back in the house very quickly.  The next day the devastation was unreal.  I hope it is the last time that I have to use a chainsaw before I snowblow the driveway!

Back to reading.

John
Quoting 177. Patrap:

This stuff from a "Leader" is why the rest of the World believe we are this stupid.


He's not a leader. He's a politician. Those are two very, very different things.
A period is when one redacts by modifying a post, as you cant leave a blank in a edit.

So some post a period.
Quoting 208. SouthTampa:

What's with people posting a period? I see this from time to time.
You can't delete a comment so posting something like a period is the equivalent.
Quoting 208. SouthTampa:

What's with people posting a period? I see this from time to time.

It means they typed something, hit the "submit" button- and changed their mind. They modified the comment- but something has to replace the comment, so they just replace it with a period.

Simply put? it's a self-redacted comment.
Quoting 203. Patrap:

To dismiss a whole month, in the peak of the Season, is Ludicrous.

Easily.






Again if this were any other year you would be right but fact is shear going thru September will become an increasing problem as El-Nino flexes its muscle even more. Also trough will become deeper and likely aimed more toward the Eastern US during that time blocking anything that tries to come at us from the East. Areas to watch will likely be Gulf/ NW Caribbean as fronts begin stalling around this region.
Quoting 211. LongIslandBeaches:



He's not a leader. He's a politician. Those are two very, very different things.


Im not naive, so to clarify..he is the LEADER or to be specific for you, Chair of Environment and Public Works committee.

His claims are based on Lunacy and a agenda, not towards any Science.
Quoting 215. StormTrackerScott:



Again if this were any other year you would be right but fact is shear going thru September will become an increasing problem as El-Nino flexes its muscle even more. Also trough will become deeper and likely aimed more toward the Eastern US during that time blocking anything that tries to come at us from the East. Areas to watch will likely be Gulf/ NW Caribbean as fronts begin stalling around this region.



Would be right?

Gee, LoL

You seem to have a real problem with anything that clashes with you finite view on reality,but you are the Fla doom master.

So theres dat.

Get back to me come October 1.

: )
Quoting 194. sar2401:

The NCEP ensemble has done a terrible job this year. It seems to pick up every area of even slightly low pressure and develop it into a storm. The same model developed the tropical storm from two weeks ago going to Florida and the Bahamas and Carlos crossing Mexico into the Bay of Campeche.The conditions are not good for anything to develop in the Gulf of Honduras let alone cross the Yucatan into the Bay of Campheche


I agree but living where I live I never discount any energy that gets down in the Gulf. I've seen things fester for days and not amount to much and then shear drops a week later and something fires up quick and surprises everyone. Typically they end up just being weak tropical storms which I wouldn't mind, seems our area is in bit of a dry pattern. Forecasts keeping saying 50-60 percent chances of rain that never seem to pan out.
Quoting 214. aquak9:


It means they typed something, hit the "submit" button- and changed their mind. They modified the comment- but something has to replace the comment, so they just replace it with a period.

Simply put? it's a self-redacted comment.


Sometimes I wish more people would do that sometimes.
Quoting 212. Patrap:

A period is when one redacts by modifying a post, as you cant leave a blank in a edit.

So some post a period.
I see. Cheers!
Blob Con 1

Set the watch, secure the rig.



In terms of the June short-term period, there is nothing of significance on the horizon at the moment in terms of the Global tropics (with the exception of Carlos off of Mexico).

Combined image of all basins
Quoting 152. flsky:

Where are you??




Wilmington NC
Ashobaa has been affecting Oman the last couple of days and continues to deliver heavy rain there:



Heavy rains cause flooding in southern Oman


Masirah Island received more than 250mm of rainfall. Ras Al Had recorded 55mm, while Sur has recorded 48mm so far, according to the Directorate General of Meteorology.






Link
Increasing showers over NW Gulf, as Blob Con 1 is now in affect

Your smarter than that Pat. You gimmee a break. Have you read Doc's Blog? If El-Nino continues toward and passed strong threshold you best believe shear will become an increasing issue heading thru September as the Westerlies start to take hold due to a intensifying El-Nino. I really think it maybe August we have to watch for after that the MDR should more than likely struggle as anything that tries to form would be close to home there after.


not that i'm yet in agreement this el nino cycle will garner the strong category......let me look back at other strong events and see how september faired
228. yoboi
Quoting 217. Patrap:




Would be right?

Gee, LoL

You seem to have a real problem with anything that clashes with you finite view on reality,but you are the Fla doom master.

So theres dat.

Get back to me come October 1.

: )


What were your pre season numbers??
TS Carlos

A Screaming Meemie is forming South of Grand Isle moving N.



That Tutt cell draped right into LA should keep the Gulf rain complex (and the screaming Meemie) energized for a while:


Moisture surge is now becoming evident along the Gulf and should steadily increase into the weekend and hopefully get a few inches of rain, as the top soil ground has become very dry at my place
Quoting 218. 69Viking:



I agree but living where I live I never discount any energy that gets down in the Gulf. I've seen things fester for days and not amount to much and then shear drops a week later and something fires up quick and surprises everyone. Typically they end up just being weak tropical storms which I wouldn't mind, seems our area is in bit of a dry pattern. Forecasts keeping saying 50-60 percent chances of rain that never seem to pan out.


it does pan out ... you just happen to be in the negative part of those percentages ... chuckles
so.....in looking at strong el nino years an activity in septmeber.....we have the following....

1957 2 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes...one being a cat 4

1965 1 tropical storms and 1 hurricanes...one being a cat 2

1957 2 tropical storms ...one being sub-tropical

1987 2 tropical storms and 1 hurricanes...one being a cat 3...and 4 troical depressions i might add


now in very strong "super' el nino years....we find the following

1982 2 tropical storms and 1 hurricanes...one being a cat 4

1997 1 hurricane... it being a cat 3


to claim the tropical atlantic will be dead during september....especially at this time of year....is far fetched with no history to support it
Quoting 218. 69Viking:



I agree but living where I live I never discount any energy that gets down in the Gulf. I've seen things fester for days and not amount to much and then shear drops a week later and something fires up quick and surprises everyone. Typically they end up just being weak tropical storms which I wouldn't mind, seems our area is in bit of a dry pattern. Forecasts keeping saying 50-60 percent chances of rain that never seem to pan out.
I don't live far from the Gulf either, so I do keep an eye on what's happening as well. Something to keep in mind is that the NCEP products are all based on the GFS. The GFS is one of the worst models in terms of false alarms in the Gulf and western Caribbean in June and July. The GFS does a much better job come August and September, and is one of the best for genesis in the MDR in September and October. It does a good job if there's already a tropical cyclone, but it's not good at all forecasting the genesis of a tropical cyclone there in the early season. It would be rare today for a low to begin to develop into a tropical cyclone and have the NHC just miss it. I know people like to look at these spider models but I just discount anything unless there's already a well defined low somewhere in the forecasting area.
Special StatementStatement as of 10:46 AM CDT on June 12, 2015

... A line of strong thunderstorms will affect northeastern St.
Charles... Orleans and northern Jefferson parishes...

At 1045 am CDT... a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Avondale to New Orleans... and moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans... Marrero... Avondale... east New Orleans... Metairie...
Harvey... Jefferson... Gretna... Harahan... Westwego... Elmwood... River
Ridge... Waggaman... Bridge City... Arabi... Estelle... Ama... Terrytown...
St. Rose and New Orleans Armstrong Airport.
Oooofh'

Man that Gust front jus blew thru like a first Feeder.

The ULL shows up well in the WV Loop dee Loop'

Quoting 238. Patrap:

The ULL shows up well in the WV Loop dee Loop'





Retrograding towards TX. Heading out for the day, hold the fort down Pat.
My top 5 weather events is going to be a little different since I've been storm chasing every year since 2010, but here we go:

5. April 9th, 2011 Iowa Tornadoes. We watched an EF3 tornado impact the town of Mapleton that evening, did search and rescue, then proceeded to witness numerous nighttime tornadoes from a discrete slow-moving supercell. We saw every shape and size of a tornado, all with stars above us.

4. April 28th, 2012 Baseball Sized hail near Lubbock, Texas. I've witnessed a lot of hail in my life. I've seen baseball sized hail plenty of times. However, this storm was different. I had a beat up junker car I didn't care for, and a nearly stationary high-based supercell. Well.... my friend Connor and I decided to "sample" the hail core. My car was never the same. We withstood a constant barrage of baseball sized hail downpour for nearly 20 minutes. I have no regrets.

3. June 16th, 2014 Twin Tornadoes Pilger, Nebraska. This storm was something unreal. We watched the first Pilger tornado from about a mile south of town on Nebraska Hwy 15. As we watched the tornado enter the town, the second "wedge" tornado touched down in the field about 200 yards to our east. This was a somber, yet incredible day.

2. June 17th, 2014 Jaw-dropping structure and tornadoes near Coleridge, Nebraska. We watched this storm form from a bubbling cumulus cloud into a massive tornadic supercell. This storm looked like a tornado machine from birth. The supercell formed along a slowly lifting warm front with nearly 7000jkg of CAPE available. This storm produced a highly photogenic stovepipe tornado first, followed by a nearly stationary photogenic wedge tornado that lasted an hour. More importantly, this storm caused no deaths. We watched this storm into the night hours as the mothership-style supercell continued to produce tornado after tornado over rural farmland. Again, the combination of a striated supercell with continuous lightning showing tornadoes with stars above was unreal.

1. May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Record Tornado. As many of you know, this event was something bizarre. The 2013 El Reno tornado was given a preliminary EF5 rating, based on mobile Doppler Radar estimated winds of over 200mph. The rating was then downgraded to EF3, due to "only" EF3 damage being found. However, it is well accepted that the 200mph winds measured by radar were accurate.

This tornado measured a record 2.6 miles wide. The tornado began as a carousel of vortices surrounding the parent circulation. At this point, the tornado was drifting to the SE. However, as the tornado intensified, it shifted rapidly to the NE. Unfortunately, as the tornado expanded and accelerated, it caught several chasers off guard, resulting in the deaths of Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and colleague Carl Young.

We spent most of the afternoon at a Love's Station in El Reno, watching updraft after updraft try to establish itself. When the storms finally broke through the CAP, three initial supercells formed just west of El Reno. As is frequently the case, the southernmost cell became dominant. Once the storm-merger process was complete, one massive, highly electrical supercell remained. This storm had no problem tapping into the highly unstable environment. We witnessed the initial tornado touchdown from about .25 miles to its SE. Once we noticed the increase in speed, we quickly drove east, paralleling the Canadian River and the ever expanding record tornado. Once the tornado began to wrap in rain, we abandoned the chase, and headed home to Norman, Oklahoma. Along the way, we encountered one of the most chaotic scenes I've ever witnessed. 11 days prior to this tornado, the devastating EF5 tornado impacted Moore, Oklahoma (15 miles east of El Reno, 5 miles north of Norman). The fresh memories of this tornado combined with one TV Meteorologists cry for people to get in their vehicles and "get south now!" resulted in a traffic nightmare. Countless motorists took over the northbound and southbound lanes of highways in a desperate attempt to escape the storms path, leading to extremely dangerous driving conditions, even well after the tornado warnings were over. It was ridiculous.

The combination of the record tornado and the chaotic traffic nightmare makes this my number 1 most memorable weather event.

El Reno Tornado Footage

Coleridge, Nebraska Footage

Pilger, Nebraska Footage

Coleridge, Nebraska June 17th, 2014:

Quoting 239. RitaEvac:



Retrograding towards TX. Heading out for the day, hold the fort down Pat.



Im taking my Y&R break now.

Im a big Victor fan ya know.

: )
Good late morning
Quoting 221. Patrap:

Blob Con 1

Set the watch, secure the rig.







uhhh! Did someone leave you in charge of the blob watch and didn't tell me???

I only issue a blob watch after I consult the NCEP which are by far the best performing so far.
Quoting 151. Seattleite:

Hmm... five most important weather memories. It's hard to pick five, but let's give it a whirl.

1) Andover, KS Tornado April 26, 1991 - I was only 6 but it's a day I've always remembered. I was visiting my grandparents in Wichita, KS for my little brothers birthday. It's hard to forget sleeping with your entire extended family (over 25 people) in the basement, especially since my baby sister was put in the dryer. So much for that normal family gathering. My uncle and father were watching the tornado from the front porch, which caused a little unease in the family to say the least.

2) Tropical Storm Fay, Tallahassee FL - August 22, 2009 - Tallahassee received over 12 inches of rain during the storm. I received a phone call from the state psych hospital I worked as a Music Therapist at, begging me to come in because the patients were restless. It was my Saturday to work, so I dutifully got in my car and began my epic journey. T minus 32 miles and counting. After travelling for an hour, and making it approximately 2 miles from my apartment I approached portion of Capital Circle with two lanes washed out. At this point, I turned around, went home and apologetically called the hospital. When I did, I couldn't reach anyone. Turns out, the hospital was hit by a tornado and was being evacuated during the storm.

3) Snowmageddon - Chaptico, MD - February 2010 - It is due to this storm that I could live the rest of my life never seeing snow and be perfectly happy about it. We received nearly 3 feet of snow, over the course of a week during 3 separate snow storms (including my only ever experience under a Blizzard warning). There was a two week period where I never worked consecutive days because of the snow. We lived in rural environment, with a painfully long driveway. It took myself, and my 5 male room mates over 8 hours to shovel the drive way. It then turned into an ice chute. We lost heat and power for over a week. Thankfully, we had a kerosene heater and plenty of blankets!

4) Hurricane Isabel - Great Mills, MD - September 2003 - I was in college at East Carolina University in Greenville, NC at the time. Greenville was in the direct path of the storm. As result the university closed for 3 days and strongly encouraged everyone who could leave, to leave. So I promptly took the opportunity to sneak back to MD to stay with my then boyfriend (now husband). The storm caused more damage in MD than in NC, even though we were far removed from the landfall location. I had to fly to Kansas the next day, from Raleigh. My normal 4 hour drive, took 9 hours. I caught my plane by the skin of my teeth... Flooded I95, trees blocking roads, electrical wires everywhere...

5) Severe Thunderstorm - Martin's Mountaintop, West Virginia - Mid July about 10 years ago - I was camping at a very large bluegrass (aka lots of hippies) festival on the top of a mountain. Approximately ten thousand people set up an over night tent city, so they could watch over 100 music concerts spread out over a four day weekend. I was sitting on the hill at the amphitheatre astutely watching the clouds. They had "that look" to me. I watched as the caps broke, and then the clouds got that greenish hue. I grabbed my then boyfriend, and we began to head back to our tent to prepare. All my friends, whom I warned, opted to stay and watch the show. Needless to say, when the pebble sized hail, 70+mph winds, torrential rain, and incessant lightning arrived, I was very glad to have prepared my camp site, and walked to my car. It was absolutely priceless watching hippies run after their tents rolling away in the wind. People spent hours trying to find their belongings afterwards...


Greenville is 4 hours from Raleigh? In 4 hours I can get to Savannah GA from Wilmington, and 64 takes you right to Raleigh.
Pat is different Gro,

Pat don't giva a...

Well, u know.

: )

We also gotz da FunkTop baby'

Latest GFS at 138 hours.

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
751 am CDT Friday Jun 12 2015

..sounding discussion...

A fairly moist and unstable profile sampled this morning with
SBCAPE at 1500 j/kg...Li of -5...and precipitable water of 1.96
inches /above normal/. Storm motions are due north with a mean
wind of 15 knots. Brief...intense downpours may occur with
thunderstorms today with a lesser threat of strong wind gusts
with a downdraft cape value of 911 j/kg. A peak wind speed of 31
knots was found at 45200 feet.

12z balloon info: there were no issues with the 104 minute flight
that ascended to 20.2 miles above the ground. The balloon burst
west of Madisonville 25 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Friday Jun 12 2015/

Discussion...
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday as
deep tropical moisture streams into the area around periphery of
ridging to the east and weak troughing remains in place over local
area in middle/upper levels. Am carrying generally high end likely
probability of precipitation for most of the area each day through Sunday. Precipitable water was approx
1.75 inches as of the 00z balloon launch and is forecast to
increase to near 2 inches today. This will continue to allow for
showers and thunderstorms with efficient rainfall production. Good
news is that forecast winds through the lower part of the
atmosphere should keep storms moving so there doesn/T appear to
be a significant flash flood threat. However...a few storms could
drop a quick inch or two of rain resulting in localized ponding of
water in low lying and poor drainage areas.

By Monday...upper level ridging will begin encroaching on the
local area as it slides westward toward the northern Gulf Coast
region. As the high slides westward...expect convective activity
to begin tapering off...especially over the eastern portion of the
area. Should still see scattered activity on Monday...but by
Tuesday ridging takes a stronger hold of the area and convection
should become more isolate in nature through midweek. As
convective activity decreases...expect afternoon temperatures to
rise into the lower 90s. Dewpoints in the low to middle 70s will
limit overnight cooling and keep overnight temperatures above normal as
well.


Quoting 243. Grothar:



uhhh! Did someone leave you in charge of the blob watch and didn't tell me???

I only issue a blob watch after I consult the NCEP which are by far the best performing so far.


Hi Gro- Earlier someone asked what your top 5 weather events were.

I've volunteered that your top weather event was Noah's flood.

Mine weas Hurricane Jeanne.
249. TXCWC
Hummm, 12z gfs came to gem's forecast side showing a more organized gulf system tracking twd TX 3 to 5 days timeframe. Not a strong system showing but definitely more twd the gem than previous runs last couple days
Surface Low


850mb vorticity


500mb vorticity

storms blowing up in the gulf,folks in TX/LA should keep a good eye on this...................
Just imagine what the 12z CMC will show now.

gem model brings it in a little earlier into texas...........................................
254. TXCWC
Quoting 251. MAweatherboy1:

Just imagine what the 12z CMC will show now.



My money is on unrealistic DOOM
Quoting 253. LargoFl:

gem model brings it in a little earlier into texas...........................................

I figured it'd show more than that given the new GFS actually has a little something, lol. Instead much weaker than last night's run. Both likely overdone of course.
Quoting 255. MAweatherboy1:


I figured it'd show more than that given the new GFS actually has a little something, lol. Instead much weaker than last night's run. Both likely overdone of course.
yes probably a good rainmaker for them
In drought times for any given location in the normally affected areas in the US during the Atlantic season, a wet drought busting tropical storm is often welcome but with all of the recent rain activity in Texas and the Gulf region, it might not be as welcome at the moment. However, for California and other parts of the West Coast, the could really benefit from a few E-Pac storms curving around and ejecting moisture their way. Have to wait to see if this partial solution pans out for them:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor%uFFFD
There's a surface trough in the western Gulf stretching down into Mexico. This trough is what's kicking off the showers and thunderstorms around the western Gulf coast. The trough is moving NW, pushed along by the expanding area of high pressure to the east. The showers and thunderstorms will move onshore later today and should dissipate thereafter.

so just watching new 12Z models
GFS and CMC/GEM continues to show a storm develop the extreme NW Carib/Gulf of Honduras move it N/NNW/NW crossing the Yucatan into the GOM heading towards Tx the GFS has landfall near Padre Island as a weak-mod TS the CMC/GEM has landfall in between Galveston Island and Matagorda Island as a moderate-strong TS
My top five weather events.

1. Hurricane Andrew
2. Tornado in Fort Riley, Kansas - June 1966
3. Blizzard in Germany 1956
4. Blizzard on Long Island (I think Feb 2006, not sure)
5. First Hurricane I actually remember - Florida 1948.

And by the way, I was yachting in the Mediterranean during Noah's flood and didn't even notice.
:)
have to admit the blog is like it use to be this morning and its nice...
263. vis0
(as usual late to the party so if its been posted, oh well)
6-pound Chihuahua? have ya ever seen a 6 Lb Chihuahua in the summer, FEROCIOUS!!! they will rip the hair from yer ankles 1 by 1 (no ladies not talking 'bout NONO the hair remover...yes i went there and will suffer for it but i meant well)

WEATHER:: here in NYC people not use to the 90s (be it the real temp or the SensedTemp® (senseTemps not a WxU product but take it if its not used) is as if 90 and heard many saying it must be 100+.
Quoting 260. wunderkidcayman:

so just watching new 12Z models
GFS and CMC/GEM continues to show a storm develop the extreme NW Carib/Gulf of Honduras move it N/NNW/NW crossing the Yucatan into the GOM heading towards Tx the GFS has landfall near Padre Island as a weak-mod TS the CMC/GEM has landfall in between Galveston Island and Matagorda Island as a moderate-strong TS


also I'm awaiting the GFS run to end because GFS for the past couple of days has shown a developing storm in the NW Caribbean that crosses the NE tip of the Yucatan and into the GOM in long range and with each run more development and more movement down the timeline as awaiting the run to finish to see if this trend continues and will continue to do so until the forecasted storm comes into short range

also awaiting the other models like NAVGEM, Euro, FIM/NOAA, UKMET to see if they will show short term storm and/or long range storm
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /h/hurricanes2018/4508.gif">

Tropical Storm CARLOS Carlos continues to be affected by northeasterly shear with the
center on the north side of the convection. While an overnight
microwave pass showed some increase in organization of the inner
core, radar from Acapulco and the latest satellite images
suggest that the system has become less organized since then.
Dvorak estimates are about the same as six hours ago, so the initial
wind speed will remain 50 kt.

The storm is essentially stationary, caught in an area of light
steering between a distant mid-level trough over the western Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. Little net motion is
expected until late this weekend, when the ridge builds over Mexico.
This pattern change should cause Carlos to move toward the
west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early
next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the
southwestern United States is forecast to dig into northwestern
Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the
northwest by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one through three days, and then is adjusted a bit to
the east to reflect the latest consensus guidance.

The intensity forecast is tricky because there are a lot of
competing factors. During the next day or two, the
northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a gradual
intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter, although the
shear is expected to become light, warm upper-level temperatures and
drier air in the mid-levels could keep Carlos from significantly
strengthening. By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere
should help to weaken Carlos. The latest intensity guidance has
come down from the last cycle, which makes some sense given the
limiting factors above. The official NHC wind speed prediction is
reduced from the previous one, although it remains on the high side
of the guidance.
Quoting 261. Grothar:
My top five weather events.

1. Hurricane Andrew
2. Tornado in Fort Riley, Kansas - June 1966
3. Blizzard in Germany 1956
4. Blizzard on Long Island (I think Feb 2006, not sure)
5. First Hurricane I actually remember - Florida 1948.

And by the way, I was yachting in the Mediterranean during Noah's flood and didn't even notice.


I hope all our main weather events are in the past and no new add-ons down the line.
Is there going to be a HIGH over the southeast next week?...look at the flow of the rain...............
The poor little CMC is only giving an 18% chance of something developing in the Gulf. I will wait for the more reliable GFS.

weather channel says there will be..a High over the southeast next week,so any rainstorms that form in the gulf will have to circle around it..tex/la rain is coming if all this verifies.
Another screaming meemie starting to take shape in the Gulf south of Panama City; rainy afternoon in store for the Northern Gulf coast:

Uncomfortable here today. Temp is 90.5, heat index is 103. But it just got overcast and breezy, and we've got incoming. Hoping this cools us down a bit!

the NWS 7-day for Galveston has Heavy rain from sat thru mon.
GFS run is finished and this run tries to develop system in long range but instead of developing in the NW Caribbean near Honduras it develops it in the SW Caribbean near Nicaragua and instead of moving NW it moves W into land quickly quashing any development and sends the remains into the Epac

and it pushes back on timeline this could be a ghost storm however to confirm this we need to examine the next runs for the next few days
Quoting 266. rmbjoe1954:



I hope all our main weather events are in the past and no new add-ons down the line.


That's what I thought during the Blizzard of 1888. Unfortunately, the weather will always surprise us. But I do agree with WaterWitch that the blog is very pleasant this morning.
Carlos is getting better organized and looks like it will become a Hurricane soon. TS conditions should be nearing Mexico in the next 48 hours and we should see how organized it gets.



Read more...
It has been fun reading everyone’s top weather related memories this AM. Here are my most memorable events most in order of oldest to most recent. These are ones that have contributed the most to my avid interest in all things weather related, or in some significant way recalibrated my appreciation, awe, and respect for the power of weather:
1. Ash Wednesday Storm 1962, Buckroe Beach, VA: I wasn’t yet 3, and perhaps my memories are actually the result of all the talk about this storm in my family and community when I was growing up, but I can vividly see in my mind us cooking over a fire in our fireplace, and watching the next door neighbor rowing a boat over to our back door to check on us. The tide made our house an island, but fortunately stopped just short of our first floor level.

2. Hurricane David 1979, Buckroe Beach, VA: We all breathed a sigh of relief when we realized that David wasn’t going to be a big deal where we lived. However, just after getting out of bed the morning David’s remnants went over us, the lighting of the sky turned rather weird/greenish looking, and the rain and wind suddenly intensified tremendously. It all seemed to be over in a flash, and so I went out to just look around. All seemed ok, but then I noticed the sound of emergency vehicles approaching. Turns out a small tornado/waterspout had torn along the bay front houses just two blocks away. Fortunately, there were no serious injuries or deaths, but it was the first time I had witnessed first-hand the destructive powers of a tornado.

3. Mid-70’s camping trip unknown campground in PA: My family camped a lot when I was a kid, and during this particular outing we experienced a tornado warning just after dark one evening. One of the most intense lightning storms had started that evening before sunset, so we were hunkered down, playing cards at the table inside our small trailer when we heard the Park Ranger over his car/truck’s PA telling everyone that a tornado had been sighted nearby, and it was heading our way. What to do, where to go? We knew staying in the trailer wasn’t a good option, so out we went into the driving rain and all too frequent lightning. A ditch was our first thought, but we came to the conclusion (thankfully) that we might get struck by lightning or drown. We thought about driving off in the truck, but my dad didn’t know the roads, or even which way to go and not possibly run into the twister. So we settled on the bath house – the only ‘sturdy’ building in the campground. So there in our cinder-block refuge did we spend the next, very scary, hour or so huddled in the dark (yes, the power had gone out), with a dozen or so fellow camping refugees. Fortunately, the storm passed and the all clear word came. We were thankful to be spared from a tornado strike, and thankful that we had a camping trailer and not a tent to sleep in that night. Maybe false security, but at least we were dry!

4. The Blizzard of 1980 Buckroe Beach, VA: March certainly came in like a lion with this storm. If my memory serves my correctly, the forecast was for a big snowstorm (for us 8” is big), but certainly not for the blizzard we ended up with. Snow began falling before noon that Saturday AM, and by midafternoon a full-blown blizzard had started – my first and only to date in my life. By first light Sunday morning we had about 18” and drifting to 4’! This storm brought our area to a halt for most of the following workweek. This is the storm that is well remembered in VA for the incident where some unwise & unlucky locals, who insisted that the show must go on, showed up at Norfolk Scope for the Saturday afternoon Ringling Brothers & Barnum Baily Circus performance. The show did go on, and so did the blizzard. A couple of thousand people spent the night with the animals at Scope that evening due to an imposed travel curfew that evening.

5. Hurricane Isabel, Grandview Island, VA 2003: Isabel’s eye roared ashore well away over Ocacroke, NC but VA was in the bad, N. E. quadrant of the storm. I decided to ride out the storm in my well-built and well elevated Grandview home despite ‘mandatory’ evacuation orders for my area. Hey, it was at best a Cat 1-2, and was coming ashore maybe 200 miles south of me; what’s to worry? Well, I am glad I did stay. To experience the remaining incredible power of this remnant of what she once was, a major Cat 5, was both educational and humbling. My Davis personal weather station recorded winds gusting to nearly 80 and the tides rose 8 feet above normal – both records for my short time on this earth – and yet both minor compared to what other devastating hurricanes have dealt out to other less fortunate areas and people. We lost electrical power for a week or more, had no cell phone service, and no safe water for a while as well. I had neighbors, who live on the bay front, lose their entire houses and possessions to this storm – ‘despite’ its land-falling distance away and diminished power. During the height of our surge, I waded out twice in waist-deep water to direct timbers from our now destroyed fishing pier from ramming my house. I could go on, but suffice it to say that I doubt I would stick around for a storm stronger than Isabel – and I am like others on this blog, a storm lover. Call it the education of Scott.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1056 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM CDT SUNDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL COMMENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPS A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LONG FETCH OVER THE GULF WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS AND SWELLS...CAUSING COASTAL TIDES TO RUN AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET MLLW ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES APPROACHING 2 FEET THIS EVENING AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
ADDITIONAL PILING OF WATER WILL CAUSE TIDES TO REACH 3.0 TO 3.6
FEET DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

LAZ052>054-073-074-TXZ215-130500-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.Y.0002.150613T0300Z-150614T2100Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
1056 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM CDT SUNDAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDE LEVELS OF 3.0 TO 3.6 FT MLLW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...10 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...LOW PORTIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN HOLLY BEACH AND
CONSTANCE BEACH MAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SECONDARY PARISH ROADS
ACROSS COASTAL CAMERON PARISH MAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF MAIN STREET IN CAMERON. ACROSS COASTAL JEFFERSON
COUNTY...PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN SEA RIM STATE PARK AND
SABINE PASS MAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
Looks like more flooding for some if this pans out..

Quoting 268. LargoFl:

Is there going to be a HIGH over the southeast next week?...look at the flow of the rain...............
Yes, strong ridge as the Bermuda High moves west and covers most of the SE. The circulation will provide the return flow to bring rain into the Texas coast for at least part of the period.
Quoting 269. Grothar:

The poor little CMC is only giving an 18% chance of something developing in the Gulf. I will wait for the more reliable GFS.




really because the new one ups it from 18% to 43% and upped from low to Med
Quoting 187. ColoradoBob1:

Ocean investigators set their sights on Pacific Ocean 'blob'

A huge swath of unusually warm water that has drawn tropical fish and turtles to the normally cool West Coast over the past year has grown to the biggest and longest-lasting ocean temperature anomaly on record, researchers now say, profoundly affecting climate and marine life from Baja California to Alaska.

Researchers remain uncertain what caused the mass of warm seawater they simply call "the blob," or what it'll mean long term for the West Coast climate. But they agree it's imperative to better understand its impact, as it may be linked to everything from California's drought to record numbers of marine mammals washing up on Northern California shores.


Link

Coastal SSTs continue to creep up. The Half Moon Bay buoy southwest of SF is at 59.2 F this hour, over a degree higher than yesterday at the same time, and close to the highest ANNUAL temp, usually recorded in September.
CFSv2 that just updated is trending higher again.

Quoting 273. LAbonbon:

Uncomfortable here today. Temp is 90.5, heat index is 103. But it just got overcast and breezy, and we've got incoming. Hoping this cools us down a bit!

(snip)

And we went from 90 to 79. Won't last, but it's a nice break.
290. vis0
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Its not the fact no one believed el nino was coming.It was just the constant hollering that the upcoming one was going to Surpass 1997.
STS was on the dot correct

...most will say, HUH no way no El Nino formed in 2014 (except for ENSO west and the Japanese Meteorological Agency's (jma) call late last year(2014)
but here my 22cents,
i've posted this several times how MAYBE in the future when researchers look back oh lets say ~ 2250AD they might type up something like after 300 yrs of researching ENSO, they'll understand  pretty much the El Nino/La Nina pattern/Modoki EXCEPT when "Le Ikodoms"*** happened frequently from 2009/2010 till whenever the "majeekal device"** i state i have set up here in  nyc is turned off...................).

i have a friend that is like webberweather53 and he calculated info i only share with a few and stated if the "majeeekal device"** weren't On El Nino moderate would have occurred beginning in Oct/Nov 2014.

Of course i'm a nut (this friend has several degrees that span physics and engineering) and finally no El Nino can still happen so as some correctly state lets learn from what happens not what we think will or could've happened yet still i think STS has some good formulas to figure out ENSO activities and together with webberweather52's Polar / Canadian affect on wxFlows future predictions will be improved.

i see ENSO as the top world supplier of natural energy transference and the HIGH/ oscillation over Canadian (northern hemisphere) that webberweather53 posts of as the big switch that decides where that ENSO energy goes. (another major switch is over Russia & 1 in the Southern Hemisphere.)

Put both researches together and you will predict which ENSO will bring rain towards what areas of the world. its as sar2401 sez lets put together what different specialist/researchers  find,  to better predict the globes weather, instead of my research is better than yours which i kind of see happening with these 2 areas that have major influences of how the planets weather behaves. In doing this we can also see what aGW is doing at a more specific level.

**if ya don't know why i use these words, try reading my ml-d reset PAGE blog look for those 3 letters. WARNING reading my blog either puts one to sleep or gives one headaches, please turn off stoves or electrical appliances before ATTEMPTING to read my pages... WAKE UP!! & smell the weather.

***"Ikodom" is Modoki backwards/.  i state one of the affects from a man made influence on weather with NATURE STILL IN CHARGE (not control it) is to see weather going E to W out west over the NW & SW USofA, specially when a "regular" Modoki are to ocurr.

BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER
Quoting 234. ricderr:

To claim the tropical atlantic will be dead during september....especially at this time of year....is far fetched with no history to support it


I put together a list of storms formed in the months of August/September/October during moderate and strong El Ninos



Should see a couple storms in September.
Most significant weather memories:

Hurricane Dora, 1964, SE Jacksonville. I remember watching the giant pine tree of my neighbor twist and turn in the wind, expecting it snap off and clobber his house but it never did. After that I was into Hurricanes, laboriously tracking them on hurricane tracking charts, vigilantly waiting for the coordinate updates on NOAA Weather Radio.

Tornado, near Hawthorne Florida in February, 1982 that killed 2 people. I awoke hearing almost nonstop thunder and torrential rain beating the roof of my 8x26 travel trailer at 2 in the morning. Then a giant roar, the power died, and some windows broke and books fell off the shelves.

WTF? I jumped out of my sleeping bag and opened the door. Lightning flashes enabled me to see that a huge oak had fallen parallel to the trailer barely missing it by 3 feet! Just then my big dog who would never come inside the trailer unless I gave him permission to enter about knocked me down to get in!

Lucky for me that I was on the edge of the damage path and the tornado was bouncing so it only sheared the tops off the tallest trees in the yard except for the oak that fell and narrowly missed me. I used to like storms but now I get a little spooked when I see them forming.

Thunder Snow Nepal, March 1986. I was solo trekking in the Gosukunda area and had left the mountain villages behind and set up camp in a sheppard hut at about 12,000 ft, During the night it started to really snow hard with the wind blowing it into the hut through gaps in the walls. Then it started thundering and lightning which surprised me as I had never heard of thunder snow.

Drought and heatwave, Gainesville, Florida 1998. It was after a super wet El Nino winter that the rains stopped in March and the heat wave built. The normal rainy season which starts in early June was delayed to mid July. I was working in a metals recycling plant where you often to hand load large aluminum semi truck trailers. The doors to the trailers were kept locked for security reasons as they sat out in the sun all day so when you entered them the heat was brutal. Some of the hardest work I have ever done.

Brutal summer heat in a Georgia cornfield. It got so hot that the kernels started popping into popcorn. And with all that popcorn flying through the air, my mule thought it was snowing and he froze to death before I could get him back to the barn! Nah, Jus kidding. (Grin)


Quoting 284. wunderkidcayman:



really because the new one ups it from 18% to 43% and upped from low to Med


Link, please!
hey hey hey guys look NHC now buying NW Carib/GOM system




although I don't completely agree with the TWO text but still
Quoting 293. Grothar:



Link, please!


Link
Quoting 291. Envoirment:



I put together a list of storms formed in the months of August/September/October during moderate and strong El Ninos



Should see a couple storms in September.


Exactly again Ric chooses to "cherry pick" never said we would see no storms in September. What i said was again the MDR will start to shut down in September do to increased shear but we need to look close to home across the Gulf/NW Caribbean due to stalling fronts even the SW Atlantic would be a hot spot but the MDR itself will struggle going thur September however August we could see a window open up with favorable conditions.

Problem is Ric/Pat seem to want to attack anyone who disagrees with what they think. Also I back my post up with models backing up my theory of what might happen.
latest Sfc obs (18Z) do seem to indicate that there may be a sfc low located in the GOH or at the very least a sfc trof

Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:

hey hey hey guys look NHC now buying NW Carib/GOM system




although I don't completely agree with the TWO text but still
Sorry don't buy it ;)
Hi everyone,
I'm new-ish here, and live on the Olympic Penninsula of Washington state. So, no cool pics of tornados or recent storms, but I found some pictures of the effect the warm winter had on the mountain snow pack:
Link

You can also go to the webcam for Olympic National Park, at: Link
Normally, there would still be patches of snow around the visitor's center, and 2-3 times as much (visually) on the distance ridge.

The scenery around here looks like it does in August, not June. I imagine the next year will be dry, if EL Nino persists as a strong event.
(Edit: tried to fix the first link)
Quoting 296. wunderkidcayman:



Link


No fair. They updated that right after I posted the other one.
from latest TWD

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
...
...
...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

Great more flood for us lol
Quoting 299. Gearsts:

Sorry don't buy it ;)

LOLx100000

I kinda buy it
after all the models do show it

Quoting 301. Grothar:



No fair. They updated that right after I posted the other one.


LOL
Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:

hey hey hey guys look NHC now buying NW Carib/GOM system




although I don't completely agree with the TWO text but still


See. they never listen to us.
# 294

Yo sport, I attacked no one.

I dont werk dat way at all.

You have issues with challenges to yer gross mis statements,...all the time.


In reality, we never discount climatology,esp in September.

Me thinks thous doth protest too mucho, for his own Grande'

Back up yer theory , what with model frames??

You said in Sept the MDR would shut down,

How can you prove something that hasn't happened yet too?


Best refrain from those "attack" words as well, as it bumps up against my leather neck.

: P
Quoting 295. wunderkidcayman:


Not surprised. That area looked "spinny" to me this a.m. Haven't had a chance to look at it so far this p.m. and getting ready to head out shortly so don't know if I'll look before I leave. However, with Carlos likely to remain on a more westerly path than first expected, a separate development is not to be ruled out ....
Quoting 275. wunderkidcayman:

GFS run is finished and this run tries to develop system in long range but instead of developing in the NW Caribbean near Honduras it develops it in the SW Caribbean near Nicaragua and instead of moving NW it moves W into land quickly quashing any development and sends the remains into the Epac

and it pushes back on timeline this could be a ghost storm however to confirm this we need to examine the next runs for the next few days
Every year the gfs does the same thing, I thought you would learn by now.
ok guys I'm starting to buy this system a lot more now

models that now show this NW Carib/GOM system

GFS
CMC/GEM
NAVGEM
EURO
Ensembles

all show system impacting or making landfall in Tx except the Ensembles which takes it into Mx


now awaiting FIM/NOAA and JMA and HWRF and GFDL
Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:

hey hey hey guys look NHC now buying NW Carib/GOM system




although I don't completely agree with the TWO text but still


Very hard for me to get excited over a 10% chance of development in five days, but hey, at least it's something!
Quoting 307. Gearsts:

Every year the gfs does the same thing, I thought you would learn by now.


umm no it does not
I thought you would know that from long ago
It is June and NHC has to address the tropics and the conditions out. I am not sold yet on the prospect of issuing a statement on an area with a "zero" percentage and asserting that it will not develop due to shear. However, folks on the Gulf might see a persistent blob, wonder about what it means to them, and NHC is reassuring them not to worry about it. We have seen this many times with persistent trof areas or a convective complex off of the Northern Gulf coast or Florida during the seasoon that look menacing over the years and NHC issues a similar statement to let folks know that it is just a rain event as it lingers or comes onshore.
Quoting 311. CybrTeddy:



Very hard for me to get excited over a 10% chance of development in five days, but hey, at least it's something!


it will change
give it some time
yeah its something and its better than nothing
Quoting 314. weathermanwannabe:

It is June and NHC has to address the tropics and the conditions out. I am not sold yet on the prospect of issuing a statement on an area with a "zero" percentage and asserting that it will not develop due to shear. However, folks on the Gulf might see a persistent blob, wonder about what it means to them, and NHC is reassuring them not to worry about it. We have seen this many times with persistent trof areas or a convective complex off of the Northern Gulf coast or Florida during the seasoon that look menacing over the years and NHC issues a similar statement to let folks know that it is just a rain event as it lingers or comes onshore.


no
if NHC wants to reassure not to worry about it they would leave it blank
Quoting 109. riverat544:

Most memorable weather events for me:

I live in the Willamette Valley of Oregon so the weather is usually pretty mild.


Hey river- Where in the Wvalley? Is that elevation 544? Can't be river mile. I'm in Corvallis.
I'll throw my top 5 out there...

1) Hurricane Andrew 1992 - Miami
2) TS Claudette 1979 - Houston
3) Hurricane Alicia 1983 - Houston
4) Hurricane Ike 2008 - Houston
5) TS Allison 2000 - Houston
The incoming is impressive as a TS Feeder rolling in.



Had to bring the Harley in as I have it for sale on the blvd as the Boaters come in to the boat Launch here.

2000 Fat Boy Softail Deuce, Maroon and Gold, all chrome accessories.



Quoting 312. Patrap:


Also understanding why we had a purple spot out in the mid ATL .... right where that slowly coalescing ULL is spinning ....

June may be more interesting than expected ... lol ....

Gotta run.... but will check in later tonight when I get back. Until then, keep 'em spinning....
I'm not surprised the NHC outlined the area of disturbed weather across the Gulf/Caribbean just to err on the side of caution, but I wouldn't expect much to come from it. Land interaction should deter development over the next 2 days or so, and unfavorable upper-level winds should prevent significant development in the western Gulf. Maybe a disorganized tropical depression if we're lucky.
Quoting 318. Greg01:

I'll throw my top 5 out there...

1) Hurricane Andrew 1992 - Miami
2) TS Claudette 1979 - Houston
3) Hurricane Alicia 1983 - Houston
4) Hurricane Ike 2008 - Houston
5) TS Allison 2000 - Houston
Yikes!

Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:



no
if NHC wants to reassure not to worry about it they would leave it blank


Here is one from 2014 with a wave that was headed towards the Lesser Antilles that was not expected to-never developed: that is TS Cristobal off the Outer Banks.

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Example Image
Quoting 319. Patrap:

The incoming is impressive as a TS Feeder rolling in.



Had to bring the Harley in as I have it for sale on the blvd as the Boaters come in to the boat Launch here.

2000 Fat Boy Deuce, Maroon and Gold, all chrome accessories.






Nice bike.
One has to factor in the fact, the solid fact and obs of increasing Water Vapor,esp in the tropics.

With a given increase in Global Water Vapor, storms, all of them, have more energy per square meter to draw from.

Thats why all the modeling and obs show that storms are changing, as well as precip patterns.

Its not "if"....,

It is now.

Your future and mine, is now.

Since water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, the Earth's infrared emissivity is further reduced by the increase in average atmospheric water vapor ...


Exactly again Ric chooses to "cherry pick" never said we would see no storms in September. What i said was again the MDR will start to shut down in September do to increased shear but we need to look close to home across the Gulf/NW Caribbean due to stalling fronts even the SW Atlantic would be a hot spot but the MDR itself will struggle going thur September however August we could see a window open up with favorable conditions.

Problem is Ric/Pat seem to want to attack anyone who disagrees with what they think. Also I back my post up with models backing up my theory of what might happen.





scott...i didn't cherry pick...i provided information based on climatology that was differing to your opinion....it was not meant to offend you...but if it did...that was your choice to take it that way...

Thanx,
Storms really starting to fire today even with a low rain chance.
Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile





Echo Tops 124 nm range

Quoting 327. ricderr:


Exactly again Ric chooses to "cherry pick" never said we would see no storms in September. What i said was again the MDR will start to shut down in September do to increased shear but we need to look close to home across the Gulf/NW Caribbean due to stalling fronts even the SW Atlantic would be a hot spot but the MDR itself will struggle going thur September however August we could see a window open up with favorable conditions.

Problem is Ric/Pat seem to want to attack anyone who disagrees with what they think. Also I back my post up with models backing up my theory of what might happen.





scott...i didn't cherry pick...i provided information based on climatology that was differing to your opinion....it was not meant to offend you...but if it did...that was your choice to take it that way...




What I said was the MDR would likely shut down come September due to a Strong El-Nino however closer to home would be the place to look. This is what the experts say too.
Pretty significant lightning on the westside of Longwood. No rain though as that is up by Rock Springs about 5 miles NW of me.
Carlos



Quoting 333. StormTrackerScott:

Pretty significant lightning on the westside of Longwood. No rain though as that is up by Rock Springs about 5 miles NW of me.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 14:43:24 N Lon : 100:43:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.9mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -63.2C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.2 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 310. wunderkidcayman:

ok guys I'm starting to buy this system a lot more now

models that now show this NW Carib/GOM system

GFS
CMC/GEM
NAVGEM
EURO
Ensembles

all show system impacting or making landfall in Tx except the Ensembles which takes it into Mx


now awaiting FIM/NOAA and JMA and HWRF and GFDL


oh HWRF is now on board

so now
GFS
CMC/GEM
NAVGEM
EURO
Ensembles
HWRF
all so this storm
These storms have a insane amount of lightning with them and those on the west coast of FL get ready as these storms are heading your way.

339. yoboi
Uptown climate review is interesting....Looks like SwLa & SeTx in for a wet weekend...
Looks like a severe thunderstorm just a few miles to my NW. Very serious lightning even away from the actual storm itself.

Quoting 334. Patrap:

Carlos






Quoting 336. Patrap:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 14:43:24 N Lon : 100:43:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.9mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -63.2C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.2 degrees

************************************************* ***






last
12Z
Location: 14.7N 100.7W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt Gusts: 60 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb

now
18Z
Location: 14.7N 100.6W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt Gust: 60kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb

seems to be moving very very slowly E
Quoting 300. annabatic:

Hi everyone,
I'm new-ish here, and live on the Olympic Penninsula of Washington state. So, no cool pics of tornados or recent storms, but I found some pictures of the effect the warm winter had on the mountain snow pack:
Link

You can also go to the webcam for Olympic National Park, at: Link
Normally, there would still be patches of snow around the visitor's center, and 2-3 times as much (visually) on the distance ridge.

The scenery around here looks like it does in August, not June. I imagine the next year will be dry, if EL Nino persists as a strong event.
(I hope I did the links right!)

1st one didn't work, 2nd one did. Make sure the box is clear before you paste your link and it is a good idea to use the preview Comment button to be sure it works. save yourself some grief.
Welcome to the ZOO.
Quoting 321. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not surprised the NHC outlined the area of disturbed weather across the Gulf/Caribbean just to err on the side of caution, but I wouldn't expect much to come from it. Land interaction should deter development over the next 2 days or so, and unfavorable upper-level winds should prevent significant development in the western Gulf. Maybe a disorganized tropical depression if we're lucky.


Agree. Too close to land for much to develop.
Quoting 338. StormTrackerScott:

These storms have a insane amount of lightning with them and those on the west coast of FL get ready as these storms are heading your way.




Looks like a nice outflow boundary being kicked out ahead of it. Might interact with the sea breeze and fire some more closer to the Gulf
Nice looking supercell near Syracuse, New York.

Will likely go tornado warned soon.

346. bwi
This is a great chart on patterns associated with Northern Hemisphere summer. But does anyone have a similar chart on patterns during Southern Hemisphere summer (NH winter)?

Quoting 338. StormTrackerScott:

These storms have a insane amount of lightning with them and those on the west coast of FL get ready as these storms are heading your way.




Yeah the original forecast for today as of yesterday was 20% and earlier it was bumped up to 30%, which is still way too low. My guess it's due to relying too much on models in this situation. That is, models tend to underdo pops and precip intensity when there is substantial high pressure ridging that is "contaminated" by deep moisture, which is pretty common here in Florida during the summer. I would have forecast 50% for this area given high PW's and building cape. High pressure can actually help the intensity of strong thunderstorms because it helps cap cumulus such that high CAPE occurs. And although coverage isn't quite as numerous, the thunderstorms are often stronger with impressive amounts of lightning that this area is famous for.

I don't really need any rain at the moment after Wednesday's drencher here and a wet June so far with more days of rain than without, but I live heavy rain and thunderstorms, and it's the rainy season, so I'll take more if we get it!

I suspect some cells could be quite strong in this area, as it was overcast earlier, yet it didn't take long for strong thunderstorm to already develop to the east. They will likely only be stronger here later due to sea breeze convergence and increasing theta-e, cape and vertical motion along the sea breeze front.

My only concern right now is that the west coast sea breeze is still pinned to the coast due to the strong flow. I'm hoping the sea breeze can still make some progress enough to pass me, because thunderstorms won't be nearly as impressive without the dual sea breeze collision, which produces much stronger vertical motion, and is always the location of strongest thunderstorms.
Quoting 338. StormTrackerScott:

These storms have a insane amount of lightning with them and those on the west coast of FL get ready as these storms are heading your way.




Great. They'll probably be here right about the time I get off work, so I'll have the pleasure of trying to get off a barrier island that floods.
TORNADO WARNING
NYC011-017-023-053-067-122015-
/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0002.150612T1929Z-150612T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHERN CORTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHWESTERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EAST CENTRAL CAYUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 329 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SCOTT...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF CORTLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PREBLE AROUND 340 PM EDT.
TULLY AROUND 345 PM EDT.
TRUXTON AROUND 350 PM EDT.
FABIUS AROUND 355 PM EDT.
CUYLER AROUND 400 PM EDT.
DE RUYTER AROUND 410 PM EDT.
OTSELIC...GEORGETOWN AND ERIEVILLE AROUND 415 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4268 7634 4286 7635 4290 7562 4265 7561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 270DEG 26KT 4278 7625

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

MSE
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Exactly again Ric chooses to "cherry pick" never said we would see no storms in September. What i said was again the MDR will start to shut down in September do to increased shear but we need to look close to home across the Gulf/NW Caribbean due to stalling fronts even the SW Atlantic would be a hot spot but the MDR itself will struggle going thur September however August we could see a window open up with favorable conditions.

Problem is Ric/Pat seem to want to attack anyone who disagrees with what they think. Also I back my post up with models backing up my theory of what might happen.


Oh no sorry Scott didn't mean for that post to seemingly attack you, just did it out of interest with you guys talking about storms forming. From what I could tell though looking back at El nino seasons is that some can have multiple storms still form in the MDR with long running CV storms, but others would have pretty much nothing. So it could go either way. Will be an interesting season I think.
Quoting 346. bwi:

This is a great chart on patterns associated with Northern Hemisphere summer. But does anyone have a similar chart on patterns during Southern Hemisphere summer (NH winter)?



organize.over.land?..yucatan.is.flat
Yawn.....its the weather it changes. We should ban nature if that helps.
Missing those 10s and 20s right about now...

Quoting 354. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Missing those 10s and 20s right about now...




No way! I'm fine with the heat. Cold is harder to take the older you get.
Quoting 350. Envoirment:



Oh no sorry Scott didn't mean for that post to seemingly attack you, just did it out of interest with you guys talking about storms forming. From what I could tell though looking back at El nino seasons is that some can have multiple storms still form in the MDR with long running CV storms, but others would have pretty much nothing. So it could go either way. Will be an interesting season I think.


I know I wasn't referring to you at all infact I like how you set all that up. Great job!
Quoting 354. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Missing those 10s and 20s right about now...




Yikes, I'd rather have 100's than 10's and 20's...
wow a yellow x!!
Quoting 355. StormTrackerScott:



No way! I'm fine with the heat. Cold is harder to take the older you get.
Quoting 357. Jedkins01:



Yikes, I'd rather have 100's than 10's and 20's...

When it's cold, you can put on more layers to keep yourself warm. If it's hot, there's only so much you can take off before creeping into the domain of public indecency, lol.


we have a yellow x at 10% in the next 5 days!
Quoting 358. tornadodude:


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLZ052-056-061-249-251-255-122015-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-INLAND MANATEE-DESOTO-HARDEE-INLAND PASCO-
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO...HARDEE...NORTHEASTERN MANATEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
POLK COUNTIES...

AT 348 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMBEE SETTLEMENT TO 9 MILES EAST
OF FISH HAWK TO 8 MILES NORTH OF ARCADIA. THE STORMS WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKELAND...PLANT CITY...WINTER HAVEN...HAINES CITY...BARTOW...LAKE
WALES...AUBURNDALE...WAUCHULA...FISH HAWK...LAKELAND LINDER
AIRPORT...FUSSELS CORNER...COMBEE SETTLEMENT...JAN PHYL VILLAGE...
ONA...MEDULLA...ZEPHYRHILLS SOUTH...SWEETWATER...FORT MEADE...LAKE
ALFRED AND MULBERRY.
Today has been the warmest day of the year so far in the UK with a tempature of 26.8C (Just over 80F) recorded in Kew. It's been quite humid so thunderstorms have been going off across the UK thoughout the day. Had one earlier with some hail and there's more forecast for overnight. UV levels have been at the max on the UK scale today too at 7 (UV levels range from 1-7 in the UK). Things should cool down a little before warming up again by mid next week.
Quoting 282. hydrus:

Looks like more flooding for some if this pans out..




GFS forecasting has been goofy for Florida, it had 10-20% pops here today, what a joke, lol.

Hopefully that flooding situation won't pan out. This is getting weird, that rain event in May in TX and OK is rare enough as it is, for it to happen again while normally rainy southeast Florida remains much drier than average is downright weird, and a bit disturbing, lol.
Quoting 360. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When it's cold, you can put on more layers to keep yourself warm. If it's hot, there's only so much you can take off before creeping into the domain of public indecency, lol.


You get used to the heat really as its hot so much you just tend to get used to it as everyday life. My closet only consistent of suits, shorts, pants, T-Shirts, and 1 light wind breaker. Not even a jacket as you really don't need it here in the Winter just a light sweeter.
hot weather in the northeast today its feel like summer around here
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC027-049-057-081-122030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0019.150612T1958Z-150612T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ONA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WAUCHULA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MYAKKA CITY...ONA...LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK...FORT LONESOME...
DUETTE...MYAKKA HEAD AND WIMAUMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2746 8188 2727 8204 2752 8248 2780 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 126DEG 38KT 2744 8203

$$


NWS has a pretty long tracked warning box for this line of thunderstorms, it means business. It's headed my way. Hopefully the west coast sea breeze can head east of me and add much more convergence to ensure a good thunderstorm here though. As while these cells are strong, they'll probably gust out before reaching us, so we'll need the outflow boundary to collide with the sea breeze to get a good thunderstorm.
Storms firing off the dryline along the Texas/New Mexico border.

Quoting 358. tornadodude:




Storms were so intense across the interior earlier that a strong gust front has rushed out and heading for the West Coast at about 35 to 40 mph.
<
class='blogquote'>Quoting 342. PedleyCA:


1st one didn't work, 2nd one did. Make sure the box is clear before you paste your link and it is a good idea to use the preview Comment button to be sure it works. save yourself some grief.
Welcome to the ZOO.

Thanks, Pedley,
Here is another attempt. It's actually the better reference because it shows 2014 vs 2015 conditions:
Link
Quoting 368. Jedkins01:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC027-049-057-081-122030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0019.150612T1958Z-150612T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ONA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WAUCHULA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MYAKKA CITY...ONA...LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK...FORT LONESOME...
DUETTE...MYAKKA HEAD AND WIMAUMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2746 8188 2727 8204 2752 8248 2780 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 126DEG 38KT 2744 8203

$$


NWS has a pretty long tracked warning box for this line of thunderstorms, it means business. It's headed my way. Hopefully the west coast sea breeze can head east of me and add much more convergence to ensure a good thunderstorm here though. As while these cells are strong, they'll probably gust out before reaching us, so we'll need the outflow boundary to collide with the sea breeze to get a good thunderstorm.


This outflow boundary is quickly heading your way. Still lightning like crazy around here. Heavy rains are just down the street now.



Tampa Bay area
Quoting 372. StormTrackerScott:



This outflow boundary is quickly heading your way. Still lightning like crazy around here. Heavy rains are just down the street now.




The boundary is in eastern Hillsborough county right now and racing westward.
Heat indices will likely reach 100 degrees this weekend to mid-week next week for central and southeastern NC and northeastern SC as high pressure builds up, 100+ indices most likely in SC and southeastern NC. For example Wilmington reached the 90 degree mark today, and high temps are not expected to drop below 90 until next weekend.

Chance of thunderstorms today as well, higher chance the further inland you go. What makes the heat worse is the weak breeze. Pine needles are barely twitching. Tomorrow the sea breeze is expected to come up and give us a better chance of t-storms in the evening and then for several days it's all about the heat baby.

Now it's time to watch the tornado watch areas in upstate NY and north Texas.
376. vis0

Quoting 81. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* Banishing the clouds: To threaten fossil fuels, solar power must solve its intermittency problem

*** Who's afraid of America? The military playing field is more even than it has been for many years. That is a big problem for the West

*** Towards a body-on-a-chip: The first organ chips are coming to market and, regulators permitting, will speed up drug testing and reduce the use of laboratory animals

Climate change progress 'too slow'

*** Milk digestion's 'more recent rise'

!!! China’s "new normal": structural change, better growth, and peak emissions

*** 'Sunscreen' layer detected on distant planet



*** Ultracold molecules created: At near absolute zero, molecules may start to exhibit exotic states of matter



*** Dispersal of alien species redefines biogeography



!!! Variations in atmospheric oxygen levels shaped Earth's climate through the ages



Spider and centipede venom evolved from insulin-like hormone

!!! Geological game changer: When continents connected - New study shakes up understanding of when continents connected

!!! How atmospheric rivers form



* When trees aren't 'green'

*** New tools aiding storm prediction: increasing ship navigational safety in Gulf of Mexico

*** Whirlpool windmill produces power without blades

Egg or sperm? Scientists identify a gene that makes the call

!!! Sorry, "skeptics": Global warming may not be so great for plant life after all

Saturn's Ring of Dust and 'Soccer Balls'

Launch Commentator for Apollo 11 Moon Shot, Jack King, Dies

*** Pluto Pictures From New Horizons Put a New Face on Dwarf Planet

Africa: At Annual Meeting, UN Committee On Space Issues Renews Focus On Sustainability and Climate Change
This is one of the best groupings of Science headlines i've seen in a long time, and be thast BB puts up some fantastic links thats a big deal.. Of my interest is *** Ultracold molecules created: At near absolute zero, molecules may start to exhibit exotic states of matter
...DUH!, i've seen these in human beings (till i lost that ability ~age11) it causes spirals of energy to form out of the heart via the heart thump - thump, also these spirals though in a fainter colour(s) are via the glandular openings to physical energy waves (Ml)  some also call these openings call Chakras others (scriptures translated for the western world) call them 7 sealed books and under the Sphinx are 7 +1/2 +1/2 crystals as an ancient clue i think only 4 or 5 have been discovered, i sent this info to 2 anthropologists in the 1980s and a retired Navy (person promised not to mention any info except the person was retired & a man) and at that time none or 1 was known of. When you see those "treebreeze" VIDs (see my last active blog pg3) i am posting (so far only low quality) if one tries to feel the energy upwelling from deep earth and connecting from outside the planets atmosphere you feel nothing till it turns into a semi constant breeze, but as a kid i could see the energies spiraling. The first way i physically "measured" this flow was in the 1970s i would create bubbles of krazy® glue (has to be original FROM 1970s Krazy® glue not crappy version of today, today i think LOC-TITE® makes a type of super glue close to original Krazy® glue of 1970s) and a pinhole with smoke would form when i placed it near the device i state influences nature, this reaction was not hot yet  if one does not look away, the chemical reaction would burn ones eyes. i remember showing police officers some tricks as to krazy clue when they cam to 6th grade class as i was lucky an uncle had the glue a few yrs before it was marked and i showed officers how it removed my fingerprints and on certain materials also caused a smoky reaction, those reactions where very hot

if you think this is all uh CRAZY here a tip you can use in real life, to prevent the super glues tip from clogging (AS LONG AS GLUE CONTAINER IS UPRIGHT) rip off a bit of a CHEAP plastic shopping bag, tie it around the LOC TITEs's container neck and every time you use the glue wipe off the containers tip with that cheap piece of grocery  bag plastic used this idea since 1980s. i Prefer LOC TITE®.

my apology for posting this its a form of withdrawal were i've been so use to for 40 yrs of trying to share my discoveries that once i start (triggered by seeing the headline of a discovery i tried to pass on in my own way) its hard to stop and once i type out a few paragraphs i feel that i might as well post it. If its remove due to compaints do not think twice moderators remove it i won't be upset.
BACK TO watches & Warnings, careful with floods


The QPF for FL always makes me laugh. Something tells me I will get more than 0.50" in the next 7 days.
Heat index of 103 outside with 94 degree temp.This is ridiculous even for this time of year (Getting June 2012 vibes).Don't underestimate the gulf..I thought we would have learned by now.
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:



no
if NHC wants to reassure not to worry about it they would leave it blank
No. The NHC needs to address that area of showers since I'm sure it has provoked a lot of questions from agencies along the coast. The wording of the update makes it pretty clear that the development is associated with the upper trough and tropical wave in the Caribbean. They can't put it up with 0% at two and five days so it's gets a 10% at five days. This is not going to be a storm that develops but, hey, you're welcome to think otherwise.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 360. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When it's cold, you can put on more layers to keep yourself warm. If it's hot, there's only so much you can take off before creeping into the domain of public indecency, lol.
And getting a horrible sunburn. :-)
382. vis0
i "+" THIS FOR THE DEEP INFORMATION OF EACH EVENT, BUT PLEASE ANYONE WHOM READS THIS AND THINKs - ADVENTURE - DO NOT FOOL YOURSELF ITS SERIOUS BUSINESS,  MAKE SURE ONE(YOU ARE) IS WELL EDUCATED IN HOW THESE STORMS MOVE AND STILL ONE CAN BE SURPRISED AS STATED IN THESE EXAMPLES) if interested locate professionals if you take it as a adventure your putting your life and others at risk and i aint talking of an owchee as broken wrist or ankle but life threatening pains so read and paint a picture of natures force respect nature whether you read of it or have educated first hand accounts.




Quoting 240. tornadodude:

My top 5 weather events is going to be a little different since I've been storm chasing every year since 2010, but here we go:

5. April 9th, 2011 Iowa Tornadoes. We watched an EF3 tornado impact the town of Mapleton that evening, did search and rescue, then proceeded to witness numerous nighttime tornadoes from a discrete slow-moving supercell. We saw every shape and size of a tornado, all with stars above us.

4. April 28th, 2012 Baseball Sized hail near Lubbock, Texas. I've witnessed a lot of hail in my life. I've seen baseball sized hail plenty of times. However, this storm was different. I had a beat up junker car I didn't care for, and a nearly stationary high-based supercell. Well.... my friend Connor and I decided to "sample" the hail core. My car was never the same. We withstood a constant barrage of baseball sized hail downpour for nearly 20 minutes. I have no regrets.

3. June 16th, 2014 Twin Tornadoes Pilger, Nebraska. This storm was something unreal. We watched the first Pilger tornado from about a mile south of town on Nebraska Hwy 15. As we watched the tornado enter the town, the second "wedge" tornado touched down in the field about 200 yards to our east. This was a somber, yet incredible day.

2. June 17th, 2014 Jaw-dropping structure and tornadoes near Coleridge, Nebraska. We watched this storm form from a bubbling cumulus cloud into a massive tornadic supercell. This storm looked like a tornado machine from birth. The supercell formed along a slowly lifting warm front with nearly 7000jkg of CAPE available. This storm produced a highly photogenic stovepipe tornado first, followed by a nearly stationary photogenic wedge tornado that lasted an hour. More importantly, this storm caused no deaths. We watched this storm into the night hours as the mothership-style supercell continued to produce tornado after tornado over rural farmland. Again, the combination of a striated supercell with continuous lightning showing tornadoes with stars above was unreal.

1. May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Record Tornado. As many of you know, this event was something bizarre. The 2013 El Reno tornado was given a preliminary EF5 rating, based on mobile Doppler Radar estimated winds of over 200mph. The rating was then downgraded to EF3, due to "only" EF3 damage being found. However, it is well accepted that the 200mph winds measured by radar were accurate.

This tornado measured a record 2.6 miles wide. The tornado began as a carousel of vortices surrounding the parent circulation. At this point, the tornado was drifting to the SE. However, as the tornado intensified, it shifted rapidly to the NE. Unfortunately, as the tornado expanded and accelerated, it caught several chasers off guard, resulting in the deaths of Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and colleague Carl Young.

We spent most of the afternoon at a Love's Station in El Reno, watching updraft after updraft try to establish itself. When the storms finally broke through the CAP, three initial supercells formed just west of El Reno. As is frequently the case, the southernmost cell became dominant. Once the storm-merger process was complete, one massive, highly electrical supercell remained. This storm had no problem tapping into the highly unstable environment. We witnessed the initial tornado touchdown from about .25 miles to its SE. Once we noticed the increase in speed, we quickly drove east, paralleling the Canadian River and the ever expanding record tornado. Once the tornado began to wrap in rain, we abandoned the chase, and headed home to Norman, Oklahoma. Along the way, we encountered one of the most chaotic scenes I've ever witnessed. 11 days prior to this tornado, the devastating EF5 tornado impacted Moore, Oklahoma (15 miles east of El Reno, 5 miles north of Norman). The fresh memories of this tornado combined with one TV Meteorologists cry for people to get in their vehicles and "get south now!" resulted in a traffic nightmare. Countless motorists took over the northbound and southbound lanes of highways in a desperate attempt to escape the storms path, leading to extremely dangerous driving conditions, even well after the tornado warnings were over. It was ridiculous.

The combination of the record tornado and the chaotic traffic nightmare makes this my number 1 most memorable weather event.

El Reno Tornado Footage

Coleridge, Nebraska Footage

Pilger, Nebraska Footage

Coleridge, Nebraska June 17th, 2014:



Quoting 145. TracySaunders:

Once again, please excuse the ignorance here, but what role does an El Nino Year play in a Drought that we are having in California right now? Does that mean we're going to have a serious rainy fall in Northern CA? It sure would be nice....

The impression I have for the west coast is that during an El Nino in winter it's wetter in the Southwest US (So. Cal., Ariz, etc) and milder and drier in the Pacific Northwest (which I think includes the northern part of California but maybe not the SF area). In summer El Nino doesn't have a big effect on the west coast.
Quoting 317. OregonAndy:



Hey river- Where in the Wvalley? Is that elevation 544? Can't be river mile. I'm in Corvallis.

Currently I live in Salem but I grew up in Corvallis and spent a lot of summers on the family farm in Central Oregon between Redmond and Prineville. Mom still is in the house in Corvallis where I grew up so I'm there at least once a month. My home is in the south hills of Salem around 480 feet. The reason for "544" is a secret.
385. vis0

Quoting 306. BahaHurican:

Not surprised. That area looked "spinny" to me this a.m. Haven't had a chance to look at it so far this p.m. and getting ready to head out shortly so don't know if I'll look before I leave. However, with Carlos likely to remain on a more westerly path than first expected, a separate development is not to be ruled out ....
i think we have a 2nd descriptive pre TS word besides Grothar's official "Blob", its "spinny" you figure out the level as spinster, spinageddon, spinorama (yes i danced to  wacka do wacka-do ...Wonderama -  fan as a kid - where the prizes were enlarged air filled replicas of quasi-junk foods as big macs to coca cola bottles, and these replicas where bigger the the child.
Quoting 244. win1gamegiantsplease:



Greenville is 4 hours from Raleigh? In 4 hours I can get to Savannah GA from Wilmington, and 64 takes you right to Raleigh.


I rode out the storm in Southern Maryland, not Greenville. From Greenville to NC is less than 2 hours, depending on traffic.
I can't stand it when i hear that great rains such as el-nino will strike, many places gets really affected and the people who get most affected are children. Thank you for taking time to discuss on this. resume writing services