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Tropical Storm Carlos Forms South of Acapulco, Mexico

By: Jeff Masters 3:29 PM GMT on June 11, 2015

Tropical Storm Carlos spun into life Thursday morning in the Pacific Ocean, about 230 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Satellite loops show that Carlos is a small storm in the early stages of organization. But with very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) beneath it and wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Carlos appears destined to intensify into a hurricane by the weekend. Radar out of Acaupulco shows that the outer spiral bands of Carlos lie just offshore from the Mexican coast, and the storm's west-northwest motion, parallel to the coast, should keep the heaviest rains just offshore. However, if Carlos takes a path slightly closer to the coast than expected, dangerous flooding rains will occur along the coast.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Three-E south of Acapulco, Mexico as seen at 1:15 pm EDT June 10, 2015, before becoming Tropical Storm Carlos. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Predicted total precipitation for Tropical Storm Carlos from the 06Z Thursday June 11, 2015 run of the HWRF model. Widespread areas of 4 - 8" were forecast just offshore from Mexico. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

An unusually early and severe Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Carlos' formation on June 11 continues a remarkable run of early-season activity for the Eastern Pacific. The third named storm usually does not appear until July 5, and Carlos' formation on June 11 comes just two days later than the record for the earliest appearance of the season's third named storm: June 9 in 1956 and 1990. Some other notable items from this year's Eastern Pacific hurricane season:

We've already had two major hurricanes this year (Andres and Blanca), and the second major hurricane of the season typically doesn't form until August 19. An entire season typically has only four major hurricanes (using stats from 1981-2010.) The record is eight major hurricanes in a season, accomplished most recently in 2014. Only six Northeast Pacific major hurricanes have occurred prior to June 5 since accurate satellite records began in 1971, and two of them were this year:

1) Hurricane Amanda, 2014: 155 mph winds on May 25
2) Hurricane Andres, 2015: 145 mph winds on June 1
2) Hurricane Adolph, 2001: 145 mph winds on May 29
4) Hurricane Blanca, 2015: 140 mph winds on June 3
5) Hurricane Alma, 2002: 115 mph winds on May 30
6) Hurricane Bud, 2012: 115 mph winds on May 25

- Hurricane Andres topped out as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on June 1, becoming the second strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year.

- Blanca became a hurricane on June 2, setting a record for the earliest appearance of the season's second hurricane (previous record: Hurricane Boris of 1990 on June 5.) Blanca also set a record for the earliest appearance of the season's second major hurricane (June 3), and was the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year.

- Blanca made landfall on the west side of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on June 8, 2015, with top winds near 45 mph. Blanca's landfall came a month earlier than the previous earliest landfall on record for Baja (Tropical Storm Calvin on July 8, 1993.)

Wunderblogging hurricane expert Steve Gregory put up a Wednesday afternoon post looking at the tropics and long-range summer outlook for the U.S.; he plans to issue regular Atlantic hurricane updates twice per week.

Bob Henson will have an update on El Niño this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
oh lord one of these days i will post a link correctly
How do you post pictures here? Its gotten super difficult.

Here's a link instead Link .Because of the fires going on in Canada D.C has had amazing sunset's and sunrises.Here is a collection of pics show casing these natural wonders
Thanks Doc...Last blog is very good..A great deal of info to absorb
Impressive June update from the NMME


Check out the forecast discussion from NWS Pueblo. They are really fired up about the flood threat today.

Link

A few highlights:
“FLOODING OVER THE BURN SCARS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE. RESIDENTS OF MANITOU SPRINGS SHOULD BE ON HIGH ALERT AFTER 3 PM TODAY. TRAVEL ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50 FROM PUEBLO TO THE KANSAS BORDER.”

“PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 200% ABOVE NORMAL...AND THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY (POTENTIALLY INTO HISTORIC VALUES IF I AM READING THE SPC PWAT PAGE CORRECTLY).”

“I REALLY HOPE THINGS ARE NOT AS BAD AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT BASED ON OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER GUIDANCE/SIMULATIONS...THINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET VERY UGLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ARE DEALING IN UNCHARTERED METEOROLOGICAL TERRITORY WITH THIS EVENT...IN THAT A REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION *AND* WE HAVE VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE”

The Boulder office which covers my area north of Denver is highlighting the flood threat but does not appear to be showing this level of concern. Though this situation certainly requires attention the forecast discussion strikes me as a little over the top. What do you all think?
Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

How do you post pictures here? Its gotten super difficult.

Here's a link instead Link .Because of the fires going on in Canada D.C has had amazing sunset's and sunrises.Here is a collection of pics show casing these natural wonders



You need to have your mind tuned to the right wavelengths.

Quoting 8. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You need to have your mind tuned to the right wavelengths.


I'll pass :D.
Quoting 9. washingtonian115:

I'll pass :D.


When you get ready to make a comment you will see an image that looks like a picture below the comment box. You just click on that and a box will appear that you can type or copy in the url address of where the image is located. You can then preview the post and make certain that the image appears before posting the comment.

added**

Just think it over for a second and it will come to you.

Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:

Impressive June update from the NMME


Thank You Dr. Much like Atlantic Cape Verde season hurricane "clusters" during an active season, it will be interesting to see if we get a "pause" of a few weeks following these three ABC storms or whether the E-Pac ITCZ will spin up another one in the short term; just have to keep an eye on the models on that issue.

Sorry I have not been around a lot... Lots going on and it is tough to blog. However, I did see this article and thought it was interesting and within the boundaries of blog discussion.

Alaska had its warmest May EVER... In 91 years of record keeping. Yep that isn't really a long time geologically - the question is, is this the start of a trend? If it keeps up I might open up an Air Conditioning company in Alaska as that is one thing I notice a lack of...

Article: alaska-experiences-its-warmest-may-record
Quoting 11. Gearsts:




According to the update as of today anomalies might have increased closer to 7C in the sub surface certainly an increase in 6C anomalies.

Quoting 8. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You need to have your mind tuned to the right wavelengths.




That's Ben Turpin from the silent movies
epac.carlos.bad.windshear...vis.
Thanks for the post Dr. Masters..
carlos............................................. ........................................
Quoting 15. Grothar:



That's Ben Turpin from the silent movies


Shhh. It is a silent movie. :)
Quoting 15. Grothar:



That's Ben Turpin from the silent movies


Neat, where did you guys meet?
Carried over from the previous blog:

Quoting 666. ndscott50:

Check out the forecast discussion from NWS Pueblo. They are really fired up about the flood threat today.

Link

A few highlights:
%u201CFLOODING OVER THE BURN SCARS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE. RESIDENTS OF MANITOU SPRINGS SHOULD BE ON HIGH ALERT AFTER 3 PM TODAY. TRAVEL ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50 FROM PUEBLO TO THE KANSAS BORDER.%u201D

%u201CPRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 200% ABOVE NORMAL...AND THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY (POTENTIALLY INTO HISTORIC VALUES IF I AM READING THE SPC PWAT PAGE CORRECTLY).%u201D

%u201CI REALLY HOPE THINGS ARE NOT AS BAD AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT BASED ON OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER GUIDANCE/SIMULATIONS...THINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET VERY UGLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ARE DEALING IN UNCHARTERED METEOROLOGICAL TERRITORY WITH THIS EVENT...IN THAT A REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION *AND* WE HAVE VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE%u201D

The Boulder office which covers my area north of Denver is highlighting the flood threat but does not appear to be showing this level of concern. Though this situation certainly requires attention the forecast discussion strikes me as a little over the top. What do you all think?


I don't know if it's over the top or not. But after reading NWS-Pueblo's AFD in its entirety I'd be paying very close attention to anything coming from the NWS today.

On a side note the link to the AFD on the NWS-Denver page is a dead link. I accessed it via WU. With the new configuration/standardization of NWS office pages, does anyone have a surefire way to quickly access an AFD, regardless of NWS office?

Edit/add on - I just realized you posted on this blog as well - I missed it.
Quoting 15. Grothar:



That's Ben Turpin from the silent movies


I have seen this face on the blog before, except he was smoking a cigar, and the dress looks familiar as well. I hear that he is working with Portlight now. :)



Hint: He is from the Carolinas
Quoting 13. Dakster:

Sorry I have not been around a lot... Lots going on and it is tough to blog. However, I did see this article and thought it was interesting and within the boundaries of blog discussion.

Alaska had its warmest May EVER... In 91 years of record keeping. Yep that isn't really a long time geologically - the question is, is this the start of a trend? If it keeps up I might open up an Air Conditioning company in Alaska as that is one thing I notice a lack of...

Article: alaska-experiences-its-warmest-may-record


I'll go grab the documents for creating your new air conditioning LLC.



Source
Quoting 20. win1gamegiantsplease:



Neat, where did you guys meet?


Mack Sennett studios, 1917




Currently in Zihuatanejo, Mexico we are experiencing partly cloudy skies and it appears to be just another beautiful day. My friends and neighbors are very thankful for this excellent resource and your extremely helpful analysis of this storm system. We have no local forecast services so we are entirely dependent on resources such as this.
Quoting 25. ZihuaRob:

Currently in Zihuatanejo, Mexico we are experiencing partly cloudy skies and it appears to be just another beautiful day. My friends and neighbors are very thankful for this excellent resource and your extremely helpful analysis of this storm system. We have no local forecast services so we are entirely dependent on resources such as this.


How long have you been there since the "Shawshank Redemption" took place? Did yall ever get that boat fixed up and taking folks out for charter fishing? :)
And the report from Puerto Escondido, about 200 miles SE of Acapulco, is we had a gusty rain yesterday afternoon but then calm, cloudy hot and humid since then. Glad Carlos is now forecast to stay off shore. Thanks for the write up on the storm Dr. Masters we were a bit worried yesterday while they were forecasting a turn to the NE and the storm looked like it was ramping up quickly.
For entirely selfish reasons(I will be visiting central TX for a few days starting Saturday), I'm glad this didn't cross MX and head for the TX coast as some of the models previously indicated. Going to be rough enough dealing with real humidity for the first time in years this weekend.
Quoting 25. ZihuaRob:

Currently in Zihuatanejo, Mexico we are experiencing partly cloudy skies and it appears to be just another beautiful day. My friends and neighbors are very thankful for this excellent resource and your extremely helpful analysis of this storm system. We have no local forecast services so we are entirely dependent on resources such as this.


You might want to try smn.cna.gob.mx
Hey guys just popping in

Just in case some are wondering recovery going well my face is still stiff

Anyway I see we have TS Carlos nice

The two posts below illustrate why Dr. Masters tropical storm blogs (and expert analysis) is so valued out there. His storm assessments are typically spot on and many people, including some emergency managers, often scan his posts (in additional to their local resources or authorities) for potential preparation issues. The NHC advisories (and cones) are the official ones you should always follow.

However, Dr, Masters supplements those advisories with in-depth analysis of the potential dangers inland/downstream which is very helpful to many (including the Bloggers from Mexico below)....................Big Kudos to Dr. Masters for his services in this critical area.
Quoting 21. LAbonbon:

Carried over from the previous blog:


I don't know if it's over the top or not. But after reading NWS-Pueblo's AFD in its entirety I'd be paying very close attention to anything coming from the NWS today.

On a side note the link to the AFD on the NWS-Denver page is a dead link. I accessed it via WU. With the new configuration/standardization of NWS office pages, does anyone have a surefire way to quickly access an AFD, regardless of NWS office?

Edit/add on - I just realized you posted on this blog as well - I missed it.



Here is the link to the Denver Forecast discussion: Link

I have been having to get to it by going to a point forecast and then clicking on the AFD link at the bottom of the page. Not sure why the link off the main page has been screwed up for so long. I thought there used to be a link to other areas near by on the standard forecast discussion page but I don't see it anymore. I have not really been a fan of some of the website redesign that NWS has done over the last year. Don't even get me started on the Snotel data site. The added a fancy map to access information from individual sites that makes it impossible to view on a phone. Very annoying.

Regrading the forecast the people I have talked with who live near me are all aware of the storm threat today so it does appear the message has been effective. Of course everyone around me went through a historic flood event in September 2013 so we are more aware. I wonder how long that effect last in an area? I know for hurricanes there is always a concern of complacency if an area has not experienced a bad one in many years.
30 day SOI....-4.22...once again firmly entrenched in neutral territory.......


there's never been a strong el nino event with the SOI neutral or weak
Finally...
Link
*This is based on the current version of ERSST, ERSSTv3b. ERSSTv4 will be released next week, and may slightly change the ONI values (and therefore the number of events >1.5°C).
for those that like to look at climatology in relationship to el nino..........by looking at the MEI.......2015 does not look like 97/98

Quoting 34. ricderr:

30 day SOI....-4.22...once again firmly entrenched in neutral territory.......


there's never been a strong el nino event with the SOI neutral or weak
This is why i think.
Quoting 13. Dakster:

Sorry I have not been around a lot... Lots going on and it is tough to blog. However, I did see this article and thought it was interesting and within the boundaries of blog discussion.

Alaska had its warmest May EVER... In 91 years of record keeping. Yep that isn't really a long time geologically - the question is, is this the start of a trend? If it keeps up I might open up an Air Conditioning company in Alaska as that is one thing I notice a lack of...

Article: alaska-experiences-its-warmest-may-record


Most of the Middle Alantic region had a 90'th percentile or higher May. "Official" DC site at DCA had
a record warm May. But conditions were generally dry and the heat island effect is amplified in that situation; Baltimore was 7'th warmest and Dulles (IAD) was 4'th warmest (with a POR of only 50 years.)

It's still unusual for both Alaska and someplace usually in the downstream trough when Alaska is warm, to
both have exceptional wamrth.
Quoting 36. ricderr:

for those that like to look at climatology in relationship to el nino..........by looking at the MEI.......2015 does not look like 97/98





2015 vs 1997

Quoting 25. ZihuaRob:

Currently in Zihuatanejo, Mexico we are experiencing partly cloudy skies and it appears to be just another beautiful day. My friends and neighbors are very thankful for this excellent resource and your extremely helpful analysis of this storm system. We have no local forecast services so we are entirely dependent on resources such as this.
Welcome to the blog ... bienvenido...
Hi, everyone.

Looks like a lot of the gang is still around here. I don't think I've logged in since a year ago. Hope you all are well. I've missed discussing weather with all of you, but life is just busy. Hope to have more time to talk with you guys soon!

Oh, and to keep this comment weather-related, the Atlantic hurricane season continues its boring ways. ;-)
Quoting 38. Gearsts:

This is why i think.



Yup pressure patterns across Australia are about to get pretty high again yielding pretty solid SOI drop for awhile. Does the drop sustain is the question. As it stands this next MJO pulse may lead to even more anomalous sub surface anomalies and what Ric failed to post from the MEI which states they firmly feel this ENSO will rival some of the big boys.

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Carlos is looking better and will continue to strengthen over the next few days. Mexico should feel some affects of Carlos.

Read more..
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
COC041-112030-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FF.W.0014.150611T1735Z-150611T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
...

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT

* AT 1134 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THE BURN SCAR WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOWS. THE DEBRIS FLOW
CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BLACK FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 10462 3898 10462 3899 10479 3910 10481
Quoting 22. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I have seen this face on the blog before, except he was smoking a cigar, and the dress looks familiar as well. I hear that he is working with Portlight now. :)



Hint: He is from the Carolinas


I was thinking more like Taz/Ric combination. LOL just playing guys!
Quoting 21. LAbonbon:

Carried over from the previous blog:


I don't know if it's over the top or not. But after reading NWS-Pueblo's AFD in its entirety I'd be paying very close attention to anything coming from the NWS today.

On a side note the link to the AFD on the NWS-Denver page is a dead link. I accessed it via WU. With the new configuration/standardization of NWS office pages, does anyone have a surefire way to quickly access an AFD, regardless of NWS office?

Edit/add on - I just realized you posted on this blog as well - I missed it.


If you know the 3 letter office identifier.......

Link
From CPC's Blog

El Niño continues to pick up steam. NOAA CPC/IRI forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (~85% chance). Now that we’re emerging from the spring barrier, this month’s update provides a first guess of the potential strength of El Niño. It’s harder to predict the strength of the event than it is to predict its duration, so we are less confident about that, but forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter. By “strong” we mean it’s expected that the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region will peak at more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... peed-ahead
Quoting 51. nrtiwlnvragn:



If you know the 3 letter office identifier.......

Link

Sweet! You are the MAN when in comes to this stuff!! Thank you!
"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

6th since 1950 and 11th since 1890
Yup pressure patterns across Australia are about to get pretty high again yielding pretty solid SOI drop for awhile. Does the drop sustain is the question. As it stands this next MJO pulse may lead to even more anomalous sub surface anomalies and what Ric failed to post from the MEI which states they firmly feel this ENSO will rival some of the big boys.



actually...if you look at the daily numbers....what we're seeing is the strong negative numbers caused by tropical cyclones a month ago....drop off the board......which is why the rise of the SOI has been meteoric.....however...for the past 19 days...the daily SOI contributing value...has been in the neutral to la nina range
Finally able to get a link into NHC. Carlos is being kept in check by some shear and potential dry air entrainment issues; the best news however is that it is staying off of the Mexican coast for the short-term so coastal flooding issues should be minimal at this point with beautiful weather in the wake as long as the the storm continues to move away from their coast:

Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely
to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three
days. At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as
Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.
However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude
substantial intensification. Given that Carlos' track now is
projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least
the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect
the system. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend
of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly
lower than that from the previous advisory.

Quoting 54. ricderr:

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

6th since 1950 and 11th since 1890


How was your FL trip?
NWS ‏@NWS 4h4 hours ago
Even though #ElNiño is strengthening it doesn't mean rain in the West this summer. Considerable uncertainty remains http://1.usa.gov/1ggMcrL
And looking ahead into the Atlantic, their ITCZ actually looks pretty healthy at the moment for the middle of June (it was very barren this time last year with lots more SAL) as it starts the slow two month rise towards 10N as we start to reach mid-August in about 60 days. Lots can happen between now and then and the ITCZ could dissipate by August but looking good for the moment early on.

The District of Columbia just activated their "Heat Emergency Plan". I live in Montgomery County just north of DC (Cloverly) and it is 96 degrees in the shade here. That is August hot on June 11th.
Quoting 60. AreadersinceWilma:

The District of Columbia just activated their "Heat Emergency Plan". I live in Montgomery County just north of DC (Cloverly) and it is 96 degrees in the shade here. That is August hot on June 11th.


Temps could tag 100 across the SE US next week as a strong ridge builds overhead.
Also noting a few pockets of lower shear in a few parts of the Atlantic and Gulf (surprising actually) but no disturbances around those pockets to take advantage of this little June window:

carlos.california.ho
Tropical Storm Carlos is slowly strengthening under moderate wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45kt from TAFB and T3.5/55kt from SAB, as well as a 1601z ASCAT pass that showed several 40kt wind barbs, support an initial intensity of 45kt at the next advisory.

Quoting 52. StormTrackerScott:

From CPC's Blog

El Niño continues to pick up steam. NOAA CPC/IRI forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (~85% chance). Now that we’re emerging from the spring barrier, this month’s update provides a first guess of the potential strength of El Niño. It’s harder to predict the strength of the event than it is to predict its duration, so we are less confident about that, but forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter. By “strong” we mean it’s expected that the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region will peak at more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... peed-ahead

El nino having a huge effect here:
In Puerto Rico, although 2 to 6 inches of rain fell on northwestern areas, little or no rain fell on southern and eastern sections of the island where the drought was most pronounced. With major degradations made last week, no changes were done this week, although a continued lack of rain during June would most likely lead to additional deterioration in the upcoming weeks. In San Juan, less than 40% of normal rain has fallen since March 1 (a bit over 5 inches), the third such driest period on record and driest since 1975. In some areas of San Juan, rationing of water is occurring, due in part to both lack of rain and sedimentation problems with the Carraizo Dam.
Quoting 65. Gearsts:

El nino having a huge effect here:
In Puerto Rico, although 2 to 6 inches of rain fell on northwestern areas, little or no rain fell on southern and eastern sections of the island where the drought was most pronounced. With major degradations made last week, no changes were done this week, although a continued lack of rain during June would most likely lead to additional deterioration in the upcoming weeks. In San Juan, less than 40% of normal rain has fallen since March 1 (a bit over 5 inches), the third such driest period on record and driest since 1975. In some areas of San Juan, rationing of water is occurring, due in part to both lack of rain and sedimentation problems with the Carraizo Dam.


Miami/FLL area too have had little to in some cases no rain for months. Inland from the coast have done better but coastal communities are driest in many years due to strong SE Flow.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
MJO/CCKW leading to trade surge week 1 in eq Pac, then typical Nino pattern & raised TC chances by wk 3 in SW EPac
How was your FL trip?



it was good......no rain....fil's pond is down a good three feet.......south florida went as expected........and we decided that ocala is probably where we'll land in about three years.....hated the humidity...the bugs....enjoyed the water and the green..but couldn't convince my wife that we could see the same thing in washington
Quoting 40. Gearsts:



That's an impressive green bullseye, but what does this chart mean, in plain language?
New Tornado Watch up for Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri:



Keeping an eye on the cell near Beatrice:

It's a close call looking at this latest vis loop shot for Carlos, but it looks (to my eyes) that the NE shear blowing the cloud tops off of the COC have exposed a bit of the LLC:

Quoting 71. weathermanwannabe:


Agreed. LLC is partially exposed.
Unless this is just a jog-wobble or ejection of an LLC in favor of a repositioning under that convective burst:
 
Quoting 68. ricderr:

How was your FL trip?



it was good......no rain....fil's pond is down a good three feet.......south florida went as expected........and we decided that ocala is probably where we'll land in about three years.....hated the humidity...the bugs....enjoyed the water and the green..but couldn't convince my wife that we could see the same thing in washington



Yeah coastal SE FL is about the driest I've ever seen it. However from West Palm north up the coast to Cape Canaveral saw 2" to 3" of rain yesterday and it was needed. 5.66" so far for June by me which is only an hour from Ocala so if you move there we will be fairly close.
Quoting 69. BayFog:


That's an impressive green bullseye, but what does this chart mean, in plain language?

An impressive MJO forecast, which implicates a very active period in the EPAC.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Looks like we could be in for a wet night in the FL Panhandle if that cluster of storms in the Gulf holds together, it's heading right at us!
Quoting 60. AreadersinceWilma:

The District of Columbia just activated their "Heat Emergency Plan". I live in Montgomery County just north of DC (Cloverly) and it is 96 degrees in the shade here. That is August hot on June 11th.


Not as hot at the airports. DCA has a 72F dewpoint and is 91-92F. BWI dewpoint is only 63F. This is common in June but doesn't usually last long whereas in July and the first half of August a week long siege of this stuff is typical. Tomorrow will be worse, a few degrees warmer and higher dewpoints esp north of us. But no
heat advisory in our area, at least not yet.

It can get a lot worse. July 2011 had temps just over 100F with dewpoints near 80F. A lot of our 100 degree days occur with downsloping and that results in dewpoint drops to the 60s in the afternoon but occasionally the air mass is strongly capped or we get this heat without downsloping and then we get the awful conditions above.
A stong cap stops mixing of dry air even with downsloping.


Looks like some unsettled weather from the EPAC crossing Guatemala into the GOH.