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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The Climate 25: A Powerhouse Set of Interviews

By: Bob Henson 3:00 PM GMT on June 10, 2015

What can you say about climate change in less than three minutes? Quite a bit, as it turns out. You can find out for yourself by sampling a group of thoughtful, provocative interviews being featured by The Weather Channel over the next month. Debuting today, “Climate 25” includes a stellar group of leaders from the military, academia, government, diplomacy, and other sectors of society. The executive producer of “Climate 25” is Solly Granatstein, whose work at “60 Minutes” earned George Polk, Edward R. Murrow, Gerald Loeb and Peabody Awards, as well as several Emmy Awards. At the end of this post, you’ll find the lineup of speakers, with links to each interview clip and the dates on which each clip will be spotlighted by TWC and weather.com.


Figure 1. Eight of the eminent people featured in “Climate 25.”


On the Climate 25 website, TWC’s Neil Katz--editor in chief of the project--lays out the context:

“There are are only a few issues more contentious than climate change in American political life. But while the climate change debate rages in some quarters, in others, most notably among those who study the climate, there is wide consensus. It’s for this reason that The Weather Channel has adopted a position on climate change that can generally be summed up as follows: we report the science, and the science consistently says climate change is real, humans are causing it, and we must prepare for its effects. . . . These videos are the culmination of a year-long project looking at climate change as a real-world problem that will require creative solutions from all points on the political spectrum. We hope it encourages thoughtful debate and, more importantly, action on an issue that will affect us all.”

Climate change is a matter of enormous long-term consequence for the world as a whole. Too often, we have let the dialogue on how to address climate change become hijacked by “he said/she said” debates, non sequiturs, partisan rigidity, and other distractions. Much remains to be learned about the regional and local impacts of climate change over the coming decades and beyond, but we already know enough about the causes and potential consequences to begin adapting to change that’s on its way (and in some cases, here now) while reducing the risk of even greater change. The participants in Climate 25 have a great deal of wisdom to share on how we might go about these tasks, and why it’s so important to do so.

All of the Climate 25 mini-interviews are now viewable online at the links below. I strongly encourage you to check them out.

Bob Henson


June 10 | Thomas Friedman, New York Times
The revolution fueled by climate change

June 11 | Constance Okollet, Community Leader, Uganda
The floods swept my village away

June 12 | Henry Paulson, 74th U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
Doing nothing is “radical risk taking”

June 13 | Christine Todd Whitman, Former New Jersey Governor, EPA Administrator (2001-03)
We can grow the economy and fight climate change

June 14 | Gen. Charles E. Jacoby (Ret.), Commander, U.S. North Command
The biggest national security threat you haven’t thought of

June 15 | Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever
How CEO tackles Unilever’s $300M climate change challenge

June 16 | Heidi Cullen, Chief Scientist, Climate Central
This is what the perfect risk looks like

June 17 | Dr. John Holdren, Assistant to the President for Science and Technology
WH science advisor’s surprising view on why climate matters

June 18 | Cary Fowler, Special Advisor, Global Crop Diversity Trust
Extinction is a process, not an event

June 19 | Farah Nasif, Syrian Refugee
In Syria, everything changed with the drought

June 20 | Hal Harvey, CEO, Energy Innovation
Every decade we wait is a thousand years of pain we inflict on future generations

June 21 | Cleo Paskal, Author, “Global Warring”
The military crisis we’re not prepared for

June 22 | Major Gen. Munir Muniruzzaman (Ret.), Bangladesh
20% of Bangladesh could be lost to the sea

June 23 | Ursula Rakova, Community Leader, Papua New Guinea
Our islands are disappearing

June 24 | William K. Reilly, EPA Administrator (1983-93)
Bush EPA chief’s surprising view on climate change

June 25 | Rear Adm. David Titley (Ret.), Former Naval Oceanography Operations Command
The nation’s defense is at stake

June 26 | Bob Inglis, Former U.S. Representative (R–S.C.)
The Republican orthodoxy is changing

June 27 | Sherri Goodman, U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (1993-2001)
Climate change is a threat multiplier

June 28 | Eli Lehrer, President, R Street Institute
Climate change real? Ask the guys who could lose billions

June 29 | Brig. Gen. Stephen Cheney, USMC (Ret.), CEO, American Security Council
70% of the world’s military is preparing for climate change

June 30 | Joe Romm, Founding Editor, Climate Progress
We can save the world from hundreds of years of misery

July 1 | Helene Gayle, President and CEO, CARE USA (2006-15)
What you don’t know about the world’s biggest threat to food security

July 2 | Nicky Sundt, WWF, Former Wildland Firefighter
There’s no escape route when it comes to climate change

July 3 | James Woolsey, Director of Central Intelligence (1993-95)
Former CIA director’s surprising take on climate change and national security

July 4 | George Luber, Associate Director for Climate Change, CDC
Why climate change has CDC scientists worried

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Oh, we had a quiet moment between rain waves.


From TD-3E discussion

The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression
Three-E is gradually becoming better organized.However, recent
microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the
International Space Station
suggest that the low-level circulation
is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to
east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these
estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from
the scatterometer.


Easily one of the coolest things I've ever read in a tropical cyclone discussion.
Quoting 440. yoboi:

Fresh off the press...

Obama Moves To Regulate CO2 From Airplanes

Link

I wonder how long it would take to travel by bicycle to Paris??


depends if it is airborne or not

well if that trough moves east, we could be talking about maybe hmm, development.
O.K. ...so 35 + 5 + 40.  Ship data.  25+5 + 30 bouy data.  Rise in temp + +5.  We must coralate...but what is the rise...+5....the ship adds +2, so...+27 + 32.  It is still the same.  This is hypothetical, but how statistics work.  You don't get it do you?  You never will.
Quoting 498. sar2401:

See that little blob over SE Alabama? It's really not moving north as the satellite picture would make it appear. It was actually mostly stationary until about 20 minutes ago. The steering currents are so weak that it just sat there and back built over me from 50 miles away. It was pretty strange. The dynamics are starting to collapse nw and the blob is finally moving south. There are outflow boundaries all over the place tonight, and we've had storms moving in almost every direction on the compass.



I think something will form here.
sorry = sign not present
Quoting 502. CybrTeddy:

From TD-3E discussion

The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression
Three-E is gradually becoming better organized.However, recent
microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the
International Space Station
suggest that the low-level circulation
is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to
east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these
estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from
the scatterometer.


Easily one of the coolest things I've ever read in a tropical cyclone discussion.
When did the space station get the scatterometer? I've never seen it mentioned in a discussion before. 3E seems to be following a pattern we first saw about two years ago. The storms weaken during DMAX instead of strengthening. The storm sure doesn't look as good now as it did this afternoon.
Quoting 506. ProgressivePulse:




I think something will form here.
Tropical wise?
Quoting 509. HurricaneAndre:

Tropical wise?


In my opinion, yes.
511. 882MB
A nice cell has been developing near Miami and Miami Beach, and seems to be stationary. And a lot of moisture coming in from the south, quite an unstable atmosphere.

building big time in the gulf

Quoting 510. ProgressivePulse:



In my opinion, yes.
This reminds me of Cristobal in 2008. It originated from the same place. And developed east of Florida.
anywho, I get excited about past comments, I am a busy man, but just proven sense, science, um... easy math?  Conversation got me early, just wanted to add my own.
Quoting 506. ProgressivePulse:




I think something will form here.
Maybe, although the NHC doesn't seem to be too concerned about it. All the high res data shows more storms forming but moving onshore into the Panhandle, not out into the Gulf. This deep layer ridging that will move in for the weekend should end any threat out there.
Quoting 514. ATLsweather:

anywho, I get excited about past comments, I am a busy man, but just proven sense, science, um... easy math? Conversation got me early, just wanted to add my own.


So what do you think of the trough in the gulf.
No dice, the gulf is dead for now, rise in temps for south east, I guess
Quoting 513. HurricaneAndre:

This reminds me of Cristobal in 2008. It originated from the same place. And developed east of Florida.


It is the year of the home brew but it is so ripe around FLA right now, Dr. Masters hinted at this a couple posts back.
Quoting 501. nonblanche:

Oh, we had a quiet moment between rain waves.



Nice rainbow off in the distance. Things look pretty green for Nevada in June.
I've got a funny feeling about that low in the eastern gulf. Its probably nothing, its probably just me ready to track something, just thought I would express my feelings about it. It kinda has that tropical look to it.
Quoting 515. sar2401:

Maybe, although the NHC doesn't seem to be too concerned about it. All the high res data shows more storms forming but moving onshore into the Panhandle, not out into the Gulf. This deep layer ridging that will move in for the weekend should end any threat out there.


was also supposed to be dry this week a few discussions ago according to MIA, things change :-}
522. 882MB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1137 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

FLZ074-173-110415-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
1137 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

* AT 1137 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER DOWNTOWN MIAMI...OR OVER MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING
IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE...VIRGINIA KEY...NORTH MIAMI...MIAMI
SHORES...NORTH BAY VILLAGE...EL PORTAL...LITTLE HAITI...DOWNTOWN
MIAMI...FISHER ISLAND...LIBERTY CITY...MARLINS PARK...COCONUT
GROVE...PINEWOOD...WEST LITTLE RIVER...GLADEVIEW...BAY HARBOR
ISLANDS...BISCAYNE PARK AND BAL HARBOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 2589 8012 2577 8014 2582 8014 2582 8018
2581 8019 2578 8018 2576 8014 2577 8019
2575 8014 2574 8015 2575 8015 2575 8018
2573 8015 2570 8017 2576 8019 2573 8024
2589 8021 2590 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 208DEG 7KT 2576 8018

$$

60
Quoting 517. ATLsweather:

No dice, the gulf is dead for now, rise in temps for south east, I guess

It's going to be pretty miserable for us this weekend and into at least the first part of next week. We should be in the mid to high 90's most of the time. The humidity will be slightly lower but not enough so it will seem any less hot. The threat of thunderstorms doesn't completely end but it should only about 20%, just climatology.
I had a geat roll cloud pic for you guys, loaded it and it almost crashed my system...I'll try to figure it out, roll clouds are cool IMHP.  It is in an overcast sky.  I don't know, computer disagrees, but I'll figure it out.
Stop buying the stuff from China.
Quoting 388. sar2401:

You think iPhones are made in China because regulators are overzealous? Which regulations would you eliminate so Apple brings all their production here?

iPhones are made in China because labor is cheap and Chinese labor is about two steps above slavery. How would you implement that here? Cut the minimum wage to $3 an hour? Make it legal for an employer to only employ single people under 30 and make them all live in dorms next to the plant? That's how it's done in China.
Quoting 521. ProgressivePulse:



was also supposed to be dry this week a few discussions ago according to MIA, things change :-}
I was under the impression that most of south Florida was dry until today.
Quoting 526. sar2401:

I was under the impression that most of south Florida was dry until today.


Surprise yesterday
Big time in the Gulf this eve

Quoting 525. HiDesertRat:

Stop buying the stuff from China.

Any idea how many cell phones or their parts are not made in China? How about TV's? Tablets? Laptops? Compact fluorescents? LED lights? Solar panels? Toys? Pet products?

We've long ago passed the "Don't buy from China" option.
Quoting 508. sar2401:

When did the space station get the scatterometer? I've never seen it mentioned in a discussion before. 3E seems to be following a pattern we first saw about two years ago. The storms weaken during DMA instead of strengthening. The storm sure doesn't look as good now as it did this afternoon.

RapidScat was installed last October to work alongside ASCAT and serve as a replacement for QuikScat/OSCAT. Unfortunately, it's just as bad as OSCAT and won't serve of much use.
Quoting 524. ATLsweather:

I had a geat roll cloud pic for you guys, loaded it and it almost crashed my system...I'll try to figure it out, roll clouds are cool IMHP.  It is in an overcast sky.  I don't know, computer disagrees, but I'll figure it out.



Try loading it to imgur or Photobucket. I personally use photobucket and then link the image over...cause WU is confusing for me to use.
Quoting 528. ProgressivePulse:

Big time in the Gulf this eve


Even bigger time off Mexico. TD 3 looks like it's getting torn to shreds. I don't know how you fix a center on that now.
Major hurricane #3?

Thanx, may take time, but I took it for all of you,  I'll get it  out, but not tonight, got to say, I like this site for tropic, I like TVN for tornado. I have learned a lot from all of you.  That's it, frontss and Low's, trng tfigure it out, I don't know much.
Quoting 532. sar2401:

Even bigger time off Mexico. TD 3 looks like it's getting torn to shreds. I don't know how you fix a center on that now.


My opinion

Right on track, shear non existent based on satellite appearance, outflow excellent except NE Quad (Land Interaction)
Quoting 533. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Major hurricane #3?





3 looks perfect on sat, you think?
Quoting 535. ProgressivePulse:



My opinion

Right on track, shear non existent based on satellite appearance, outflow excellent except NE Quad (Land Interaction)

I agree. Convection isn't as expansive as earlier, as the storm is becoming more consolidated. There are some signs of dry air, and the inner structure of the system needs some work (as is to be expected for a tropical depression, lol), but the environment is conducive for steady intensification over the next 5 days (assuming Three-E doesn't move ashore, which seems to be less likely at this point).
Quoting 519. sar2401:

Nice rainbow off in the distance. Things look pretty green for Nevada in June.


Rumble rumble! Mom used to tell me "The Angels are bowling."

I'm down one bottle of Camaraderie Ale 8%. Ever since that one morning where my hangover ran full-tilt into a case of Norovirus, I've been a genuinely cheap drunk. A shameful state of affairs for my formerly heroic Polish Liver, but probably a ton healthier.

The kids experienced their very first Close Range Lightning Strike - likely a half mile or less away. The dogs and cats were unfazed - we make all kinds of Sounds here for a variety of reasons, plus Fallon NAS flight path noise.

And now the rain returns with enthusiasm (if I say "a vengeance" I'll make it sound like I don't want it. Nearest station to our usual pattern had .95" between 4:30pm and 6:15pm, which was quite the amazement. Between waves, while we were rejoicing in the rainbow, they stripped down to shorts, rain slickers and umbrellas and had a proper mud-fest in the drive. Baby Runa was astonished, it was her first real, true, honest to goodness frog strangler.
alright yall, big time things going in the gulf

Quoting 459. PaulSanD:



*pointless insult deleted*, do you realize all you do is insult people? What do you add here? Can we get back to weather?


This just in from science deniers: Facts are Insults.

The only person I see throwing around insults is you. In fact, your three introductory posts have been nothing but insulting.

Let me clue you in. This isn't WUWT or any other conspiracy nutter site where the rule of the road are equivalent to 4chan. Here, we have rules and we have moderators who aren't afraid to hit people with the ban hammer. They also aren't afraid to permaban people either.

If you want to keep participating here you'd do well to read the rules of the road and abide by them.
Quoting 535. ProgressivePulse:



My opinion

Right on track, shear non existent based on satellite appearance, outflow excellent except NE Quad (Land Interaction)
It should recover, but it's definitely hit a little speed bump tonight.

  • roll Cloud!!!!
big gust front coming up from the south into Miami, heading north
sorry, trying to figure this out, but cool huh?  Overcast, gust front, rolling....I apologize if this messes with the blog, two weeks old, but I wanted to share..
what the heck is going on down there

sorry to banter but we don't get this down here at this time of night in the summer.
Quoting 482. sar2401:

Any idea what the trend line would look like if all the years were combined into one line and compared to a 30 year mean? You know, like real statisticians would do it, not like what's produced by yet another denier blog?? Do you even give a dog's behind???


More fundamentally, adding arctic and antarctic sea ice together is scientifically meaningless, as well as statistically meaningless. It's apples and oranges, but in the denier world their both ice so that makes them equivalent.
has my caption changed??
maybe, like crazy math I was never good at?
Quoting 546. ATLsweather:

sorry, trying to figure this out, but cool huh?  Overcast, gust front, rolling....I apologize if this messes with the blog, two weeks old, but I wanted to share..



I like it, nice shot.
Sorry, I should be a painting I made of Cthuhu, excuse me while I rot in computer posting hell.
It's called rain. There is a low in the N/E gulf. Will be gone tomorrow.

Quoting 547. ProgressivePulse:

what the heck is going on down there


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
422 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 10 2015

Short term...

A broad upper level trough axis extending across the Gulf of
Mexico will be the main player impacting our weather through the
weekend. This broad area of low pressure aloft will slowly drift
to the west through the period. As the main trough axis shifts to
the west of the forecast area...a plume of deep tropical moisture
will advect into the region. This surge of moisture will begin to
influence the region tomorrow...but the main surge of moisture
will hold off until Friday and Saturday. Expect to see more
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow...and
have high end chance probability of precipitation of 40 to 50 percent in place during the
peak heating hours. Precipitable water values will increase to 2 or more inches on
Friday...which will result in fairly widespread convection
throughout the day. This convection will initially be in the
offshore waters late Thursday night into early Friday...but will
quickly overspread the forecast area by late morning. The rain
chances should decrease back into chance range Friday night...as
overall instability wanes...but another round of fairly widespread
convection will redevelop Saturday morning and persist through
the day. With ample moisture in place and basically moist
adiabatic lapse rates in the model soundings...expect to see very
efficient rainfall processes through the period.


 Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will be possible. Given this...localized 
street flooding issues will be possible each day. 

Temperatures will be cooler due to the increase in cloud cover and
thunderstorm activity. Expect to see highs range closer to the
middle 80s through Sunday. With high dewpoints in
place...overnight lows will be closer to normal in the lower 70s.


Quoting 554. swflurker:

It's called rain. There is a low in the N/E gulf. Will be gone tomorrow.





I highly doubt that.

How about posting transcripts for people whose internet connection is too slow to load video?
Quoting 554. swflurker:

It's called rain. There is a low in the N/E gulf. Will be gone tomorrow.


Tornado warning for SW Florida has expired but folks stay alert
out in time, it doesn't look like TD#3 will be going into the gulf.at least so far anyway
Quoting 460. yoboi:



Still looking good...But you never know they might readjust the data....



See? Swapping graphics doesn't help you. The global sea ice anomaly, which you were touting a few days ago, is now negative. It will become increasingly negative until September.
Good morning. Up early this morning for work, knowing most of you are still asleep. Thought I share this discussion with you. NWS in Melbourne puts a little quote to the GFS, for our area. Looks like more rain on the way, we need it though! Have a great day everyone!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...STILL A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA IS PRECIPITATION FREE OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES
SOUTHWARD BUT THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG. THE GFS IS OUT TO
LUNCH ON THIS! THE LATEST DISTURBANCE PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GOMEX IS RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW/S PENINSULA. WILL SEE HOW THIS
PLAYS OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT IT DOES APPEAR...ACCORDING TO
LOCAL SHORT-TERM MODEL RUNS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS
IT ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS
NOT ONLY AFTER THE SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING BUT
ALSO FROM THE LATEST BATCH HEADING THIS WAY EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...IF IT IS INDEED LIMITED...MAY VERY WELL
LIMIT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF NEED BE.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND MOVE INLAND
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CAPE...A LITTLE QUICKER SOUTH AS THE RIDGE AXIS
LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MORE QUICKER
MOVING OF THE TWO. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST BETWEEN -8C AND -9C. MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING AT 20 TO 25 MPH...THOUGH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY CREATE NUISANCE FLOODING
ALMOST ANYWHERE. OTHER THREATS COULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (50 PERCENT)
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING COULD VERY WELL PLAY
HAVOC WITH CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS
STILL FORECAST IN THE U80S TO L90S...BUT LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY BACK TO SSE/SE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRI-WED...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PENINSULA BY FRI. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE STATE AND DEEP SOUTH.

FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE 11/00Z GFS
COMING INTO LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG
SEA BREEZE. WILL GENERALLY SEE A PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING
ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOONS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES QUICKLY INLAND.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER NEXT TUES/WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SCOOTS FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO ALLOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROUGH MOVING OVER RIDGE
AND INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE WARMER SIDE DUE TO MINIMAL STORMS/CLOUD COVER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND
MID/UPPER 70S COAST...WITH A FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY
SEEING A FEW NIGHTS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

yes the Tampa discussion has some real doubts about these storms ending this morning and could continue thru today,got some great rains here on the gulf coast from this system..we needed this for sure!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS TODAY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: THE COMBINATION OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER URBAN AREAS.

Picked up 2.96" from yesterday's rain event. That is now the 4th day since May 12th where I have picked up 2+ inches of rain in one shot.
global.sea.ice.normal.
And the "climate change" machine rolls on.

Interesting that almost all of these people are not trained scientists but politicians. That tells you something right there.
Quoting 440. yoboi:

Fresh off the press...

Obama Moves To Regulate CO2 From Airplanes

Link

I wonder how long it would take to travel by bicycle to Paris??


Makes sense since jet engines are only 30% efficient in Energy Conversion ..... If you cannot raise a pathetic 30% efficiency you either aren't trying or you have reached a technological Dead End and it's time to move on
Quoting 453. Patrap:

Semper Fi'

June 29 | Brig. Gen. Stephen Cheney, USMC (Ret.), CEO, American Security Council

70% of the world’s military is preparing for climate change.

Retired Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney knows the pressures that a changing climate will place on the United States military. Naval bases will have to deal with rising sea levels. The potential for conflict ignited by climate change will increase. And the U.S. military will continue to be among the first responders in the event of natural disasters.

Having served for three decades career in the U.S. Marine Corps, both in staff and command positions, Cheney understands the importance of preparing the U.S. military for this future. He is an advocate for military preparation in the face of climate change threats and a strong voice in the conversation about national security and global warming.

Cheney is currently the Chief Executive Officer of the American Security Project, a nonpartisan group focused on United States security in the 21st century. He has served on the organization’s board since 2006. He has also acted as a panelist for numerous forums on the topic, including the Association of Climate Change Officers’ 2015 Defense, National Security & Climate Change Symposium and Climate Week NYC 2014. He has characterized climate change as one of the most critical national security issues of this century.


To which I'll add Karachi, Pakistan and Mumbai, India are both at sea level, the countries hate each other and both have nukes. What could possibly go wrong?
Quoting 573. Sandy82579:

And the "climate change" machine rolls on.

Interesting that almost all of these people are not trained scientists but politicians. That tells you something right there.


Not very good with numbers are you? Maybe 5 are politicians and ironically most of them were Republicans .....
Quoting 572. islander101010:

global.sea.ice.normal.


Global.sea.ice.meaningless.metric.
Quoting 573. Sandy82579:

And the "climate change" machine rolls on.

Interesting that almost all of these people are... politicians.
Well, yes, almost all these people are politicians--except for the 23 who aren't. From that list, only two fit the true definition of politician: Whitman and Inglis (and, as Longjohn pointed out, both are Republicans). Certainly many of the others are politically active, but being politically active doesn't qualify one as a politician; if that were the case, everyone who votes would be considered a politician. Ya know?

No, aside from the two actual, real, live politicians named above, the list is made up of CEOs, military types, authors, people who've been directly affected by climate change, and the like.
Quoting 573. Sandy82579:

That tells you something right there.
Yes, it certainly does.
Quoting 573. Sandy82579:

And the "climate change" machine rolls on.

Interesting that almost all of these people are not trained scientists but politicians. That tells you something right there.


Anything to contribute in the discussion or just stirring the pot with baseless comments? Considering the way Neapolitan tore down your last climate change gish gallop of nonsense, maybe it's time to rethink that your shrewd observations on the topic aren't so much.
Quoting 577. tampabaymatt:




Oh for cripes sakes, if we have another late June early July flood here in Davenport Iowa AGAIN this year even during an el Nino I just have to find a new hobby .....
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 110833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
0900 UTC THU JUN 11 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 100.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 100.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Quoting 482. sar2401:

Any idea what the trend line would look like if all the years were combined into one line and compared to a 30 year mean? You know, like real statisticians would do it, not like what's produced by yet another denier blog?? Do you even give a dog's behind???


It would show that "Arctic sea ice loss greatly outweighs Antarctic sea ice gain, as is evident from looking at global sea ice:"

Quoting 571. tampabaymatt:




Maybe today is the day I'll finally get some measurable rain in the Florida Panhandle. One day Pensacola gets it and then the next day Panama City gets and sit right between the two and get just a few sprinkles. Hopefully that will change today!
Quoting 583. hydrus:




The last few runs of the GFS have kept the rains away from the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area. The drought might intensify there is this pattern verifies. Amazing to see drought status in this area during the rainy season.
Quoting 575. JohnLonergan:



To which I'll add Karachi, Pakistan and Mumbai, India are both at sea level, the countries hate each other and both have nukes. What could possibly go wrong?
Yep..... been watching that situation closely for a long time, and for very good reasons....The region is the proverbial powder keg, and a haven for terrorists.
Quoting 508. sar2401:

When did the space station get the scatterometer? I've never seen it mentioned in a discussion before.

It was installed end of last September. It was an awesome, quick & economical use of equipment that was already sitting or floating around. Dr Masters wrote a blog or two about it. It makes many passes of the earth a day with a wider swath but they turn it off when they dock spacecraft or do maneuvers.


As for buying from China.. There are USA made computers. Apple even is planning on producing some here, others already are.
589. yoboi
Quoting 572. islander101010:

global.sea.ice.normal.


Why yes it is...But you can only use global data for temps...With ice hurricanes droughts snow rain tornadoes etc you have to use regional data....But even when using regional data you will get comments like "the U.S. is not the globe" then a couple of days later the same people that made that comment will go on and on that the rain in 2 states Texas & Oklahoma is because of global warming....
Quoting 589. yoboi:



Why yes it is...But you can only use global data for temps...With ice hurricanes droughts snow rain tornadoes etc you have to use regional data....But even when using regional data you will get comments like "the U.S. is not the globe" then a couple of days later the same people that made that comment will go on and on that the rain in 2 states Texas & Oklahoma is because of global warming....




Here Vee Goooooo......Super Brother Mario
Quoting 579. Neapolitan:

Well, yes, almost all these people are politicians--except for the 23 who aren't. From that list, only two fit the true definition of politician: Whitman and Inglis (and, as Longjohn pointed out, both are Republicans). Certainly many of the others are politically active, but being politically active doesn't qualify one as a politician; if that were the case, everyone who votes would be considered a politician. Ya know?

No, aside from the two actual, real, live politicians named above, the list is made up of CEOs, military types, authors, people who've been directly affected by climate change, and the like. Yes, it certainly does.
Made me smile with this one Nea...Being a politician doesnt seem have the same appeal to as it did many years ago. Years ago, it was a lot of arguing, witch hunts , and mudslinging, but there was honor to it..Now I see what looks like a snake pit, and they strike each other little or no provocation.. I see the E Pluribus Unum Motto everywhere, but see it happening almost nowhere.. I am thankful that there are actually people working together, including this blog, to help those in need, and shift things in a better direction....I may be target practice now for the trolls and such.
Quoting 591. hydrus:

Made me smile with this one Nea...Being a politician doesnt seem have the same appeal to as it did many years ago. Years ago, it was a lot of arguing, witch hunts , and mudslinging, but there was honor to it..Now I see what looks like a snake pit, and they strike each other little or no provocation.. I see the E Pluribus Unum Motto everywhere, but see it happening almost nowhere.. I am thankful that there are actually people working together, including this blog, to help those in need, and shift things in a better direction....I may be target practice now for the trolls and such.


One organization that bears mentioning is Portlight which this blog gave birth to. It has helped a whole lot of people and anyone trying to tear down what is done here should remember that.
Quoting 584. JohnLonergan:



It would show that "Arctic sea ice loss greatly outweighs Antarctic sea ice gain, as is evident from looking at global sea ice:"


but,,but...i thought the Antarctic sea ice weighs more per square meter....?.....Forgive me John...I do goof off until i,ve had a cup......yes...i drink coffee almost everyday...:)
Quoting 569. tampabaymatt:

Picked up 2.96" from yesterday's rain event. That is now the 4th day since May 12th where I have picked up 2+ inches of rain in one shot.
I got just under 2" at the closest reporting station (KFLSTPET50). I saw that Ballast Point South got 6.5" yesterday.
Quoting 586. tampabaymatt:



The last few runs of the GFS have kept the rains away from the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area. The drought might intensify there is this pattern verifies. Amazing to see drought status in this area during the rainy season.
I hope we get the rain spread out over the summer, than 1 or 2 times come Sept. and Oct. The extra wind and heavy rains are long over due.
Woke up this morning to find a couple of fairly large downed trees in our neighborhood in South Sarasota. Got to work out on Longboat Key and some limbs are down. How did I sleep through all that??
Quoting 593. hydrus:

but,,but...i thought the Antarctic sea ice weighs more per square meter....?.....Forgive me John...I do goof off until i,ve had a cup......yes...i drink coffee almost everyday...:)
Quoting 597. NativeSun:


Quoting 597. NativeSun:


I ,m awake...i,m awake
Quoting 595. NativeSun:

I hope we get the rain spread out over the summer, than 1 or 2 times come Sept. and Oct. The extra wind and heavy rains are long over due.
Morning..Folks in your area may get the rough weather in spades....and it is overdue..jmo
Quoting 572. islander101010:

global.sea.ice.normal.


"Global sea ice" is a metric wholly manufactured by science deniers that has absolutely no scientific use. Watch. I'll demonstrate how this idiocy works.

We've all heard about the drought in California. We've all heard about the record breaking rains in Texas and parts of the midwest. There was even a blog entry on May being the wettest month on record.

Is it scientifically valid to say that everything is normal because if you add the torrential rains of Texas to the drought in California then overall there is no drought? Of course not, and anyone who wasn't an idiot you tell you as much. It doesn't make any sense to do so.

That's exactly what the science deniers are doing with this whole "global sea ice" garbage. They're adding two completely unrelated quantities on opposite sides of the planet and then saying everything is fine. You don't need to be an expert in physics to see exactly how silly and meaningless this metric is.
Summer is here in IL that is for sure, yesterday we broke 94F. Heat Indices were only around 100F or under for the most part. Today we shall see the same.

Crops have responded over the past two weeks to ideal conditions in and around the Central and Eastern part of the state. Most if not all corn is over 3'ft now with almost all of our rains being soaked up. Good rains too, a solid 3-6" over the last 14 days.

Looks like the Eastern Tropical Pacific if is getting rung out over the Plains for the next week or so...
Good Morning. Will check back on the E-Pac TD later today (busy morning) but here is the weather headline for Conus today. Should be an interesting weather afternoon between this and the further development of the TD.

Severe weather possible across parts of central U.S.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon & evening from the central & southern Plains across the mid-Miss. Valley and into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. There is an Enhanced Risk across parts of southern IA, northwestern MO and extreme portions of southeastern NE and northeastern KS.
Quoting 409. JohnLonergan:



I really miss the Love canal and burning rivers.



He probably believes it's a conspiracy by the EPA and the surveyors association so we could get surveying Superfund sites.
Remember that well...What an absolute nightmare..
Quoting 589. yoboi:



Why yes it is...But you can only use global data for temps...With ice hurricanes droughts snow rain tornadoes etc you have to use regional data....But even when using regional data you will get comments like "the U.S. is not the globe" then a couple of days later the same people that made that comment will go on and on that the rain in 2 states Texas & Oklahoma is because of global warming....


Do you know what context is? Do you care to measure, report, and analyze things in their proper context? It seems like you prefer a one size fits all approach that ignores context and nuance and instead favors laziness and misrepresentation. Why do you have such great disdain for science, Yoboi? You seem so angry that science doesn't fit nicely into your preconceptions, but then get defensive when it is explained to you why it doesn't. Do you act this way when antibiotics can't cure viruses? Or do you demand we give the patient more and more because sickness is sickness? Or do you realize there are differences in illness and they must be analyzed, viewed, and treated differently? These are rhetorical, please, no need to reply. Just think about it.
Also, is anyone having problems getting on the NHC site this am?..............I can't get it to come up on my computer. If someone can post me a working link it would be most appreciated.
Quoting 589. yoboi:



Why yes it is...But you can only use global data for temps...With ice hurricanes droughts snow rain tornadoes etc you have to use regional data....But even when using regional data you will get comments like "the U.S. is not the globe" then a couple of days later the same people that made that comment will go on and on that the rain in 2 states Texas & Oklahoma is because of global warming....


And you claim to be a graduate student who's six months away from getting a Ph.D?

I've lost count of how many times you've posted regional data to prove that GLOBAL phenomena aren't happening, and vice versa. Just about everything you've ever posted in regards to climate science has been a conspiracy theory, deliberate misrepresentation, gross distortion, completely invalid, or an outright fabrication.

You are the epitome of the willfully ignorant science denier. Watts has nothing on you.
Quoting 596. flbeachgirl:

Woke up this morning to find a couple of fairly large downed trees in our neighborhood in South Sarasota. Got to work out on Longboat Key and some limbs are down. How did I sleep through all that??
around 2:43 am or so you folks had a tornado warning down there
Sum Sum Sum Sum Summertime.....

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION

***HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.***

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S., HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S, ALONG WITH ELEVATED LEVELS OF
HUMIDITY, WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 95 TO 100 DEGREES. POOR AIR
QUALITY IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. ON THURSDAY.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

*** NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK ***

THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT
THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER ALONG THE I-70/64
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN PARTS OF GA/SC WHICH
IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH VALUES.
an amazing article on the dangers of sea level rise..on CNN...........................Link
610. yoboi
Quoting 600. Xyrus2000:



"Global sea ice" is a metric wholly manufactured by science deniers that has absolutely no scientific use. Watch. I'll demonstrate how this idiocy works.

We've all heard about the drought in California. We've all heard about the record breaking rains in Texas and parts of the midwest. There was even a blog entry on May being the wettest month on record.

Is it scientifically valid to say that everything is normal because if you add the torrential rains of Texas to the drought in California then overall there is no drought? Of course not, and anyone who wasn't an idiot you tell you as much. It doesn't make any sense to do so.

That's exactly what the science deniers are doing with this whole "global sea ice" garbage. They're adding two completely unrelated quantities on opposite sides of the planet and then saying everything is fine. You don't need to be an expert in physics to see exactly how silly and meaningless this metric is.


But it was scientifically valid to say that Texas and Oklahoma was headed toward Desertification weeks before the rains fell??? Just another failed prediction... The list Is very long..
Quoting 588. Skyepony:


It was installed end of last September. It was an awesome, quick & economical use of equipment that was already sitting or floating around. Dr Masters wrote a blog or two about it. It makes many passes of the earth a day with a wider swath but they turn it off when they dock spacecraft or do maneuvers.


As for buying from China.. There are USA made computers. Apple even is planning on producing some here, others already are.
We can only hope the one on the Space Station will do better than the other satellite units then.

Weasel words from the "USA Computer" site -

"Keep in mind that no computer can be made of 100% American parts. Computers are made of a diverse amount of components made in countries all over the world. In fact no computer can be 100% made in any country. Computers made in China are made up of foreign and American parts too. Hard drives, processors, RAM, motherboards and many other components are made throughout the world. Some individual components are made in factories in several different countries. Because of the diversity of the supplier chain, no computer is made of parts from just one country. "

As I wrote, there is no such thing as a 100% made in USA computer. Apple is only going to assemble, still from some foreign made parts, the most expensive and smallest selling computer they make. Even worse is the situation for USA TV's. There are only two companies, one that still uses Chinese components and only exists because it's funded by Walmart as part of their made in USA program and the other than only manufactures high end luxury TV's.
Quoting 610. yoboi:



But it was scientifically valid to say that Texas and Oklahoma was headed toward Desertification weeks before the rains fell??? Just another failed prediction... The list Is very long..


Who said that, some unverifiable source (not a scientist) you found buried in a biased article. Stay on focus, Yoboi. Stop making things up. And stop moving the goalposts.
Quoting 600. Xyrus2000:



"Global sea ice" is a metric wholly manufactured by science deniers that has absolutely no scientific use. Watch. I'll demonstrate how this idiocy works.

We've all heard about the drought in California. We've all heard about the record breaking rains in Texas and parts of the midwest. There was even a blog entry on May being the wettest month on record.

Is it scientifically valid to say that everything is normal because if you add the torrential rains of Texas to the drought in California then overall there is no drought? Of course not, and anyone who wasn't an idiot you tell you as much. It doesn't make any sense to do so.

That's exactly what the science deniers are doing with this whole "global sea ice" garbage. They're adding two completely unrelated quantities on opposite sides of the planet and then saying everything is fine. You don't need to be an expert in physics to see exactly how silly and meaningless this metric is.


Same metric as "I ate until it hurt and then I threw up, so I didn't gain any weight".
Quoting 610. yoboi:



But it was scientifically valid to say that Texas and Oklahoma was headed toward Desertification weeks before the rains fell??? Just another failed prediction... The list Is very long..
Do you have a link to an expert from a non-denier website that made such a prediction?
Quoting 605. weathermanwannabe:

Also, is anyone having problems getting on the NHC site this am?..............I can't get it to come up on my computer. If someone can post me a working link it would be most appreciated.
NHC is working fine for me. Who is your ISP?
Quoting 600. Xyrus2000:



"Global sea ice" is a metric wholly manufactured by science deniers that has absolutely no scientific use. Watch. I'll demonstrate how this idiocy works.

We've all heard about the drought in California. We've all heard about the record breaking rains in Texas and parts of the midwest. There was even a blog entry on May being the wettest month on record.

Is it scientifically valid to say that everything is normal because if you add the torrential rains of Texas to the drought in California then overall there is no drought? Of course not, and anyone who wasn't an idiot you tell you as much. It doesn't make any sense to do so.

That's exactly what the science deniers are doing with this whole "global sea ice" garbage. They're adding two completely unrelated quantities on opposite sides of the planet and then saying everything is fine. You don't need to be an expert in physics to see exactly how silly and meaningless this metric is.
No. But you do need to possess at least a modicum of both intelligence and intellectual honesty. And, sadly, even a modicum may be too much to ask for from some here.
Quoting 605. weathermanwannabe:

Also, is anyone having problems getting on the NHC site this am?..............I can't get it to come up on my computer. If someone can post me a working link it would be most appreciated.

I just tried, no problems. At times though, I have difficulty getting onto the main NWS site. When that occurs it's on their end, as I have no difficulty with other sites that I'm on at the time.

And I just used the main link. Link
Quoting 606. Xyrus2000:



And you claim to be a graduate student who's six months away from getting a Ph.D?

I've lost count of how many times you've posted regional data to prove that GLOBAL phenomena aren't happening, and vice versa. Just about everything you've ever posted in regards to climate science has been a conspiracy theory, deliberate misrepresentation, gross distortion, completely invalid, or an outright fabrication.

You are the epitome of the willfully ignorant science denier. Watts has nothing on you.



Piled Higher and Deeper, that's what Yo does.
Even Antarctic sea ice increase is related to climate change issues; a great example of the various impacts on the Northern Hemisphere vs. Southern:


Scientists working in Antarctica are feeling the impact of climate change in ways the public might find surprising. Although global warming is causing Arctic ice to melt and glaciers around the world to shrink, the problem in Antarctica is that the sea ice surrounding the continent is increasing and now hampering ship navigation and resupply operations. This week, scientists and logistics experts from the 30 nations working on the continent are meeting in Hobart, Australia, to exchange ideas on coping with the sea ice challenge.

The underlying mechanism is fairly well understood, says Tony Worby, a sea ice specialist at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. "We know that the changing Antarctic sea ice extent is very largely driven by changes in wind,” he says. “In turn, we know those changes are driven by the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere as well as increasing greenhouse gases at the surface." The new wind patterns blow Antarctic sea ice away from the continent and then more ice forms close to shore. This doesn't occur in the Arctic because the ocean is hemmed in by land masses. And "it's quite a lot windier around Antarctica than in the Arctic," Worby says.

Quoting 581. Longjohn119:



Oh for cripes sakes, if we have another late June early July flood here in Davenport Iowa AGAIN this year even during an el Nino I just have to find a new hobby .....

Out of curiosity, what hobby?
Quoting 612. Naga5000:



Who said that, some unverifiable source (not a scientist) you found buried in a biased article. Stay on focus, Yoboi. Stop making things up. And stop moving the goalposts.
You know this guy is a pathological liar and cheater, why do you continue to engage him in debate? It only gives him a platform to spew his nonsense.
Quoting 621. SouthTampa:

You know this guy is a pathological liar and cheater, why do you continue to engage him in debate? It only gives him a platform to spew his nonsense.


He spews it anyways, besides, It keeps me from having to engage in meaningful work.
Quoting 622. Naga5000:



He spews it anyways, besides, It keeps me from having to engage in meaningful work.
LOL. Gotcha.
Quoting 542. BaltimoreBrian:

Chill out this summer!

I think I'd be a mite claustrophobic in there, Brian.
Quoting 557. gippgig:

How about posting transcripts for people whose internet connection is too slow to load video?

That's a good idea - there are definitely people who can't readily access online videos.
Quoting 617. LAbonbon:


I just tried, no problems. At times though, I have difficulty getting onto the main NWS site. When that occurs it's on their end, as I have no difficulty with other sites that I'm on at the time.

And I just used the main link. Link
I found I was also having trouble at all the NOAA and NWS site, but the problem was only partially on their end. I am on Roadrunner, which is really Time-Warner. Their DNS will regularly throttle websites that change frequently and don't update their DNS data to conform to their changes. The NWS is one of these, and it causes connection problems. A lot of other ISP's do the same thing. There are instructions on how to change to a Google public DNS here that does not have these problems. It's not hard to do as long as you follow the instructions, and it ended all the NWS connection problems I was having.
I'm pretty new to Weather underground but I like that most of these comments actually relate to the blog post. Usually, it looks like the comments have nothing to do with whatever Jeff Masters writes about. Jeff will blog about something like drought in California and then a bunch of people post "their" hurricane forecast for Florida, which actually looks like it's just cut/pasted from the national weather service.
Quoting 625. LAbonbon:


That's a good idea - there are definitely people who can't readily access online videos.


...or for people who are deaf...
Quoting 620. LAbonbon:


Out of curiosity, what hobby?


I'll venture a guess... Trout fishin'.
Quoting 629. Grothar:





That's....problematic
Quoting 626. sar2401:

I found I was also having trouble at all the NOAA and NWS site, but the problem was only partially on their end. I am on Roadrunner, which is really Time-Warner. Their DNS will regularly throttle websites that change frequently and don't update their DNS data to conform to their changes. The NWS is one of these, and it causes connection problems. A lot of other ISP's do the same thing. There are instructions on how to change to a Google public DNS here that does not have these problems. It's not hard to do as long as you follow the instructions, and it ended all the NWS connection problems I was having.


Funny enough, I switched to Google's public DNS a while back, but needed to change to automatic. It was incompatible with the University's secured wifi connection for faculty and students. I could log in, but I couldn't access the University's own .edu web pages, which meant no online course access to do my grading during office hours.
Quoting 633. Naga5000:



Funny enough, I switched to Google's public DNS a while back, but needed to change to automatic. It was incompatible with the University's secured wifi connection for faculty and students. I could log in, but I couldn't access the University's own .edu web pages, which meant no online course access to do my grading during office hours.
Yeah, it won't work for most internal networks due to the firewall issues.. It should work fine for most home connections though. Not hard to reverse the change if someone discovers an issue with a Google DNS though.
Quoting 632. LAbonbon:


That's....problematic
I guess everywhere north of us is just doomed...
CPC favoring Strong El-Nino now. As of 18Z on the CFSv2 This El-Nino could max out at 2.5C. However the SOI index has trended sharply positive lately so I don't think we reach 1997 levels but could come close and likely surpass the stronger El-Nino's of the 70's & 80's. Either way expect a lot of rain across FL from November thru March 2016 due to a active Southern Storm Track.

CPC/IRI ENSO Update
Published: June 11, 2015

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.


During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0°C, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4°C in Niño-3 and +1.9°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5°C or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.
Quoting 633. Naga5000:



Funny enough, I switched to Google's public DNS a while back, but needed to change to automatic. It was incompatible with the University's secured wifi connection for faculty and students. I could log in, but I couldn't access the University's own .edu web pages, which meant no online course access to do my grading during office hours.
I have all the servers in my control configured to hand off most external DNS requests to Google's public DNS servers (8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4). They're very robust, and always up. But I generally configure an organization's own DNS server to handle internal requests, as many of the wanted internal URLs aren't visible on public DNS. IOW: the domain DNS is the primary server for any machine, and the Google DNS servers are secondary and tertiary...
<----< Is a FREE Range blogger.
Boy this is the strongest this Kelvin Wave has gotten so far this year and likely near 7C anomalies beginning to show up. Very impressive update today.

Yikes!!!
From today's Guardian:

Climate sceptic researcher investigated over funding from fossil fuel firms
Willie Soon from Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics probed over failure to disclose more than $1.2m from energy industry when submitting articles

Suzanne Goldenberg
Thursday 11 June 2015 09.01 EDT

A Harvard-Smithsonian researcher known as a climate sceptic is under multiple ethics investigations arising from his hidden financial relationships with fossil fuel companies.

A handful of academic journals have asked Willie Soon, a researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, about his failure to disclose more than $1.2m in energy industry funding when submitting articles for publication, the Climate Investigations Center (CIC) said.

Soon is also under two parallel ethics investigations by the Smithsonian, a spokesperson for the institution said.


Full article

From Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Featured entry

Quoting 127. JohnLonergan:

Irreversible loss of world's ice cover should spur leaders into action, say scientists

We need only look to the world's ice cover to see the urgency with which emissions need to come down, scientists told delegates at this week's climate talks in Bonn, Germany.

At a press conference today, US and German scientists updated negotiators and journalists with the latest science on the state of Arctic sea ice, the Antarctic continent and thawing permafrost.

New observations gathered since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report show the cryosphere in serious and irreversible decline, they warned.

...)

Pam Pearson, director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, the network of policy experts and researchers holding the event, told the audience:

"This is not like air pollution or water pollution, where if you clean it up it will go back to the way it was before."

Sea ice in decline

Arctic sea ice has been retreating rapidly in recent years as a result of greenhouse gases building up in the atmosphere, explained Dr Dirk Notz, sea ice expert at the Max Planck Institute in Germany. The biggest losses are happening in summer, he said:

"Over the past 10 years or so, we've roughly seen a 50% loss of Arctic sea ice area. So, the ice in the Arctic is currently retreating very, very rapidly."

In March, Arctic sea ice reached its lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. Last week, the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre confirmed Arctic sea ice extent for May was the third lowest on record.



Antarctic sea ice has been at record high levels in 2015 but this should be viewed in perspective with what's happening at the other end of the planet, Notz said:

"There is a slight increase, but it's nothing compared to the very, very rapid loss that we've seen in the Arctic."

Scientists' current understanding is that temperature changes as a result of greenhouse gases are causing winds to blow stronger offshore in the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica, driving the sea ice outwards. Notz said:

"Both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, the changes we are seeing in the sea ice are very clearly driven predominantly by human activities."



A slide from Dr Dirk Notz's presentation, putting Antartcic sea ice gain in perspective with the rate of Arctic sea ice loss. Source: ICCI press conference, Bonn June 2015

Model simulations suggest sea ice could be gone from the Arctic in summer by mid-century. But if we stop emitting greenhouse gases, the chances of losing sea ice diminish quickly, he said:

"Only a very strong and rapid reduction in carbon dioxide might allow for the survival of Arctic summer sea ice beyond this century."

More at Carbon Brief ...
Quoting 637. Neapolitan:

I have all the servers in my control configured to hand off most external DNS requests to Google's public DNS servers (8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4). They're very robust, and always up. But I generally configure an organization's own DNS server to handle internal requests, as many of the wanted internal URLs aren't visible on public DNS. IOW: the domain DNS is the primary server for any machine, and the Google DNS servers are secondary and tertiary...
Quoting 634. sar2401:

Yeah, it won't work for most internal networks due to the firewall issues.. It should work fine for most home connections though. Not hard to reverse the change if someone discovers an issue with a Google DNS though.


Annnnd I've learned something new before noon. Looks like I can take the rest of the day off. Thanks for the responses. :) #FeelingAccomplished
Also from the Guardian (their Energy Section) - this article is quite interesting. No matter anyone's stance on AGW/CC, this is worth a read through.

BP boss widens transatlantic rift in energy industry over climate change
Bob Dudley says UN global warming summit needs deals to encourage energy efficiency and renewable power

Terry Macalister, Energy editor
Wednesday 10 June 2015 13.27 EDT

BP has threatened to widen a rift between European and US oil companies over how to respond to global warming by urging political leaders to deliver a “substantial” deal at international climate change talks later this year.

Bob Dudley, chief executive of the British oil and gas group, said the United Nations global warming summit in December needed to broker agreements that encourage energy efficiency, renewable power such as wind and the use of gas. Such moves are considered vital if global governments are to succeed in keeping the Earth’s temperatures from rising more than 2C, the internationally agreed threshold to prevent widespread flooding, famine and desertification.

Asked what he wanted to see from the UN conference in Paris, Dudley said:

"Something substantial needs to be done. We are conscious of that ... we encourage policymakers to move forward on this when they meet in December.”

His comments came amid signs of a transatlantic rift in the oil and gas industry over how to tackle global warming. Last week, BP and a group of European oil companies including Shell and Total of France wrote a letter to the Financial Times calling for “widespread and effective” carbon pricing to be part of a Paris deal. But that move was dismissed by John Watson, chief executive of US-based Chevron, who said he had declined to sign the letter and believed that putting a price on carbon emissions was unworkable.

Full article

Excerpt:

The BP review showed that the amount of proven oil and gas reserves found by the industry was twice as much as in 1980. The company dismissed the idea that BP might have “stranded assets” which could not be burned if the 2C limit is to stay intact, saying that the major stock-listed companies owned a tiny percentage of the world’s total reserves.

Bolded emphasis is mine - I had no idea this was true?
Quoting 627. TedwardDavis:

I'm pretty new to Weather underground but I like that most of these comments actually relate to the blog post. Usually, it looks like the comments have nothing to do with whatever Jeff Masters writes about. Jeff will blog about something like drought in California and then a bunch of people post "their" hurricane forecast for Florida, which actually looks like it's just cut/pasted from the national weather service.
well when people are in danger from storms or tornado's or whatever they do tend to write and talk about it here and YES whom would you rather get the storm info from..the NWS or whom?..but they understand your point and on a normal weather day the folks here do comment and post about the blogs issues
Quoting 643. Naga5000:



Annnnd I've learned something new before noon. Looks like I can take the rest of the day off. Thanks for the responses. :) #FeelingAccomplished

LOL - I'm glad someone's feeling accomplished. I sort of understood sar's post, followed the link, and realized I didn't feel confident enough to mess w/ my computer/router that way...then I read Nea's post, and felt like I walked into a wall (a wall of my own ignorance, mind you). Sooo, for the time being anyway, I'm not going to mess with any settings, lest I end up not being able to access anything :o
Quoting 641. LAbonbon:

Climate sceptic researcher investigated over funding from fossil fuel firms


LOL Bonnie this will quiet the debate going on in this blog! :D
This tiny little cell has brought w/ it some gusty winds and it's dumping some heavy rain on me.

Quoting 609. LargoFl:

an amazing article on the dangers of sea level rise..on CNN...........................Link
in reading this Long article I see it will takes centuries for ALL the Greenland ice to melt away,but,,probably what concerns me most...is a possible 9 foot sea level rise..at that rate,by 2100 or later.. NYC and ALOT of coastal cities etc will be under water..For myself I wont be around to see it but,IF this ice melting and sea level rise is a Proven fact...why aren't coastal cites that would be in serious flooding danger..building or making higher sea walls?..could it be these very cities don't believe the fact or science behind global warming?..i have no idea..but IF..this sea level rise does occur in the coming centuries..this will be a very different world folks will be living in huh.
Quoting 645. LargoFl:

well when people are in danger from storms or tornado's or whatever they do tend to write and talk about it here and YES whom would you rather get the storm info from..the NWS or whom?..but they understand your point and on a normal weather day the folks here do comment and post about the blogs issues


I lived in southern Florida for a few years. Whenever I was "in danger from storms or tornadoes or whatever" my first instinct wasn't to log onto the internet, search for an unrelated blog about an upcoming TV series, and then find the comments section so I could let everybody know it was raining in my backyard.
Quoting 639. StormTrackerScott:

Boy this is the strongest this Kelvin Wave has gotten so far this year and likely near 7C anomalies beginning to show up. Very impressive update today.

Yikes!!!

What does this all mean?
Quoting 651. hurricanewatcher61:


Quoting 647. LongIslandBeaches:



LOL Bonnie this will quiet the debate going on in this blog! :D

I wouldn't normally post that here, but it is on topic :)
654. JRRP
Ignorance, and willful at that, does not even come into the reality of the Science of CC.

One's ignorance is in NO way equal to another's learned knowledge of the Topic.


Debate?, none.

The Science was settled decades ago.

What many see n the Media is the Fossil Fuel funded, "smoke and mirror's/hand hockey of enormous BS",...

Thats called propaganda, and iz the werst thing I have witnessed.


Quoting 652. hurricanewatcher61:

What does this all mean?


It means that we are most certainly going to get a Strong El-NIno exceeding 1.5C which implies a wet Fall/Winter for FL with bouts of severe weather likely producing night time tornadoes.
Quoting 650. TedwardDavis:



I lived in southern Florida for a few years. Whenever I was "in danger from storms or tornadoes or whatever" my first instinct wasn't to log onto the internet, search for an unrelated blog about an upcoming TV series, and then find the comments section so I could let everybody know it was raining in my backyard.
that's ok, that's your way of keeping informed,but there are many others who like seeing how it is in other area's of the state and seeing whats going on there and could this be happening later on in Their neck of the woods..but that's how I see it..and this particular blog has a lot of viewers from florida and even more lurkers,which is why it happens..weeks ago they were talking about the tornado's in the Midwest, and before that..the flooding rains in texas...after all..this is primarily..a weather blog is it not?..well good luck to you..its just the way I see it..
Quoting 637. Neapolitan:

I have all the servers in my control configured to hand off most external DNS requests to Google's public DNS servers (8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4). They're very robust, and always up. But I generally configure an organization's own DNS server to handle internal requests, as many of the wanted internal URLs aren't visible on public DNS. IOW: the domain DNS is the primary server for any machine, and the Google DNS servers are secondary and tertiary...


And that is how it is done! I have been doing it for so long that I never think to mention it.
Quoting 649. LargoFl:

in reading this Long article I see it will takes centuries for ALL the Greenland ice to melt away,but,,probably what concerns me most...is a possible 9 foot sea level rise..at that rate,by 2100 or later.. NYC and ALOT of coastal cities etc will be under water..For myself I wont be around to see it but,IF this ice melting and sea level rise is a Proven fact...why aren't coastal cites that would be in serious flooding danger..building or making higher sea walls?..could it be these very cities don't believe the fact or science behind global warming?..i have no idea..but IF..this sea level rise does occur in the coming centuries..this will be a very different world folks will be living in huh.


I like your observations here, Largo. Honest question, what makes this article speak to you more than some research about potential scenarios of sea level rise, like the IPCC report or the National Climate Assessment? No ill will meant at all by this, something just struck me and I am very curious.
Models now showing a decent WWB by week 2. This would coincide with the MJO moving across the Pacific during this time frame. Should see the SOI drop pretty good again next week.

Quoting 629. Grothar:






Looks like an original Salvador Dali.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 641. LAbonbon:

From today's Guardian:

Climate sceptic researcher investigated over funding from fossil fuel firms
Willie Soon from Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics probed over failure to disclose more than $1.2m from energy industry when submitting articles

Suzanne Goldenberg
Thursday 11 June 2015 09.01 EDT

A Harvard-Smithsonian researcher known as a climate sceptic is under multiple ethics investigations arising from his hidden financial relationships with fossil fuel companies.

A handful of academic journals have asked Willie Soon, a researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, about his failure to disclose more than $1.2m in energy industry funding when submitting articles for publication, the Climate Investigations Center (CIC) said.

Soon is also under two parallel ethics investigations by the Smithsonian, a spokesperson for the institution said.


Full article




It's good to be "sceptical"
Our crisis in 2 graphs.

In my life the CO2 ppm has gone up 92ppm,



Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.

In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.


And to add my last, a thinking tool for today

No one alive or born today will likely NEVER see CO2 below 400ppm.

Quoting 659. Naga5000:



I like your observations here, Largo. Honest question, what makes this article speak to you more than some research about potential scenarios of sea level rise, like the IPCC report or the National Climate Assessment? No ill will meant at all by this, something just struck me and I am very curious.
well to be honest its the first article of a series that I came across and it just struck me about the sea level rise and how he describes how many area's of the world would be..underwater..i know..folks here have been talking about global warming and yeah ive been lurking and reading and trying to understand what they are trying to put across..but this article,went further, it told of what area's would be most affected..not arguing IF global warming was real or proven BUT..what will happen when it does...I guess it got to me being a former new Yorker myself..and I remember those low lying area's very well..gee a disaster in the making and I could be dead wrong but I don't see the cities preparing for whats coming..i surely would like the Doc to make a day and describe in detail..what area's and cities would be underwater when all the ice melts..i'd love to read that.
Check out the forecast discussion from NWS Pueblo. They are really fired up about the flood threat today.

Link

A few highlights:
“FLOODING OVER THE BURN SCARS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE. RESIDENTS OF MANITOU SPRINGS SHOULD BE ON HIGH ALERT AFTER 3 PM TODAY. TRAVEL ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50 FROM PUEBLO TO THE KANSAS BORDER.”

“PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 200% ABOVE NORMAL...AND THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY (POTENTIALLY INTO HISTORIC VALUES IF I AM READING THE SPC PWAT PAGE CORRECTLY).”

“I REALLY HOPE THINGS ARE NOT AS BAD AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT BASED ON OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER GUIDANCE/SIMULATIONS...THINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET VERY UGLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ARE DEALING IN UNCHARTERED METEOROLOGICAL TERRITORY WITH THIS EVENT...IN THAT A REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION *AND* WE HAVE VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE”

The Boulder office which covers my area north of Denver is highlighting the flood threat but does not appear to be showing this level of concern. Though this situation certainly requires attention the forecast discussion strikes me as a little over the top. What do you all think?
Quoting 644. LAbonbon:

Also from the Guardian (their Energy Section) - this article is quite interesting. No matter anyone's stance on AGW/CC, this is worth a read through.

BP boss widens transatlantic rift in energy industry over climate change
Bob Dudley says UN global warming summit needs deals to encourage energy efficiency and renewable power

Terry Macalister, Energy editor
Wednesday 10 June 2015 13.27 EDT

BP has threatened to widen a rift between European and US oil companies over how to respond to global warming by urging political leaders to deliver a “substantial” deal at international climate change talks later this year.

Bob Dudley, chief executive of the British oil and gas group, said the United Nations global warming summit in December needed to broker agreements that encourage energy efficiency, renewable power such as wind and the use of gas. Such moves are considered vital if global governments are to succeed in keeping the Earth’s temperatures from rising more than 2C, the internationally agreed threshold to prevent widespread flooding, famine and desertification.

Asked what he wanted to see from the UN conference in Paris, Dudley said:

"Something substantial needs to be done. We are conscious of that ... we encourage policymakers to move forward on this when they meet in December.”

His comments came amid signs of a transatlantic rift in the oil and gas industry over how to tackle global warming. Last week, BP and a group of European oil companies including Shell and Total of France wrote a letter to the Financial Times calling for “widespread and effective” carbon pricing to be part of a Paris deal. But that move was dismissed by John Watson, chief executive of US-based Chevron, who said he had declined to sign the letter and believed that putting a price on carbon emissions was unworkable.

Full article

Excerpt:

The BP review showed that the amount of proven oil and gas reserves found by the industry was twice as much as in 1980. The company dismissed the idea that BP might have “stranded assets” which could not be burned if the 2C limit is to stay intact, saying that the major stock-listed companies owned a tiny percentage of the world’s total reserves.

Bolded emphasis is mine - I had no idea this was true?
The vast percentage of oil reserves is owned by the national oil companies in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The big oil companies get a concession to drill and recover but no ownership rights.
Quoting 649. LargoFl:

in reading this Long article I see it will takes centuries for ALL the Greenland ice to melt away,but,,probably what concerns me most...is a possible 9 foot sea level rise..at that rate,by 2100 or later.. NYC and ALOT of coastal cities etc will be under water..For myself I wont be around to see it but,IF this ice melting and sea level rise is a Proven fact...why aren't coastal cites that would be in serious flooding danger..building or making higher sea walls?..could it be these very cities don't believe the fact or science behind global warming?..i have no idea..but IF..this sea level rise does occur in the coming centuries..this will be a very different world folks will be living in huh.


I think they are following the very human tendancy to deny a distant but very unpleasant reality.
Quoting 657. LargoFl:

that's ok, that's your way of keeping informed,but there are many others who like seeing how it is in other area's of the state and seeing whats going on there and could this be happening later on in Their neck of the woods..but that's how I see it..and this particular blog has a lot of viewers from florida and even more lurkers,which is why it happens..weeks ago they were talking about the tornado's in the Midwest, and before that..the flooding rains in texas...after all..this is primarily..a weather blog is it not?..well good luck to you..its just the way I see it..


You are "spot on", Largo... from a lurker in S FL who follows the blog and the various personalities.
Quoting 601. ILwthrfan:

Summer is here in IL that is for sure, yesterday we broke 94F. Heat Indices were only around 100F or under for the most part. Today we shall see the same.

Crops have responded over the past two weeks to ideal conditions in and around the Central and Eastern part of the state. Most if not all corn is over 3'ft now with almost all of our rains being soaked up. Good rains too, a solid 3-6" over the last 14 days.

Looks like the Eastern Tropical Pacific if is getting rung out over the Plains for the next week or so...


Corn in the DC metro exurbs is also about 3' high as of June 10. This is seasonably normal to a little ahead of normal. Knee high by the fourth of Luly is appropriate for the upper Midwest but way late for here. In the South
the saying is "as high as an Elephant's eye" by that date.

My first corn ears (from an early variety) are targeted for June 15.. cool weather last week caused a few day slippage in ripening. I hoped to tie the 1991 June 11 date (a record that stood until 2010 June 8 and 2012 June 6) but that isn't happening.

I like my corn!
Quoting 665. LargoFl:

well to be honest its the first article of a series that I came across and it just struck me about the sea level rise and how he describes how many area's of the world would be..underwater..i know..folks here have been talking about global warming and yeah ive been lurking and reading and trying to understand what they are trying to put across..but this article,went further, it told of what area's would be most affected..not arguing IF global warming was real or proven BUT..what will happen when it does...I guess it got to me being a former new Yorker myself..and I remember those low lying area's very well..gee a disaster in the making and I could be dead wrong but I don't see the cities preparing for whats coming..i surely would like the Doc to make a day and describe in detail..what area's and cities would be underwater when all the ice melts..i'd love to read that.


Thanks for the response. Many of the cities are not preparing or planning properly. Solution to this are highly political and charged as you can see here. The more disagreement in "if it's happening", only acts to slow down the "how do we deal with it" answers. Combined with funding and fights between local governance and state legislature, the process to mitigate some of the outcomes looks to not be speeding up anytime soon in many areas. If you have some free time, play around with the Climate Central tools here (these are the same interactive maps found in the CNN article, although the website contains some more data and analysis.
Quoting 586. tampabaymatt:



The last few runs of the GFS have kept the rains away from the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area. The drought might intensify there is this pattern verifies. Amazing to see drought status in this area during the rainy season.


It's really bad, because they had drought going into it as well. Not good at all...
Quoting 577. tampabaymatt:




I don't think this will be correct, I think it's assuming below normal precip due to ridging, but most model guidance have pretty high moisture in place during the extended. And model guidance tends to under due rain chances in high moisture under ridging.
Quoting 673. Jedkins01:



I don't think this will be correct, I think it's assuming below normal precip due to ridging, but most model guidance have pretty high moisture in place during the extended. And model guidance tends to under due rain chances in high moisture under ridging.
Hey Jedkins!, I agree with you and to add to the high moisture content, let's not forget about our afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms and with a southeast to east wind flow returning, expect late afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms, especially moving back towards the coast as the East Coast Seabreeze dominates. I see that pattern lasting at least into late next week. Pretty much a typical summertime pattern for us here in FL. This weekend might be hot with temperatures in the mid-90s in some spots as a surface high pressure settles over the southeast and ridging builds in from the west. Would not shock me at all to see some temps. in the 100s in parts of the Southeast.
Hmmm! I've noticed that of the lists of scientists, I don't see Dr. Roy Spencer there for some reason. Is that because he isn't part of the IN crowd when it comes to force feeding propaganda to people who have absolutely no understanding of the atmosphere and how weather works, but yet can be made to believe that the climate is changing? LOL! (oh wait the globe is warming...let's not forget that global warming is masked over as climate change now.)

So what is Weather Underground, a weather website or a 'we are going to feed you global warming/climate change bullsh*t whether you want us to or not' website?

Ohhhh yes! The Weather Channel goons have taken over...how did I manage to forget that?

055658Z 20150612
677. LAbonbon
Quoting 675. Boltron:
(snip)
And that, folks, is how not to post on this blog. A little civility goes a long way. Exceedingly rude posts like this are generally not acceptable here.
***
I don't think being bombarded with a big banner [The Climate 25: A Powerhouse Set of Interviews] on the Current Conditions page is acceptable either. Climate Change is nothing more than a man made computer model with information input by man to make it whatever the heck he (or even she) wants. GIGO-Garbage In...Garbage Out.
***
In the vast span of time this Earth has changed climate a bazillion times, some way more violent changes without human intervention, we either roll with the punches or not. It's really all about adaptability to these changes that's important, dig it!
Quoting 675. Boltron:

(snip)

And that, folks, is how not to post on this blog. A little civility goes a long way. Exceedingly rude posts like this are generally not acceptable here.
678. vis0
Quoting 676. ohmari:

In the vast span of time this Earth has changed climate a bazillion times, some way more violent changes without human intervention, we either roll with the punches or not. It's really all about adaptability to these changes that's important, dig it!
Roll with the punches?

First punch was thrown when the industrial revolution began, and since humans knew not (science was figuring it out, but  back then you have mouths to feed and the "technology" was new TO THE PUBLIC so one worked and kept quiet) and/or had no other way to mass produce but to fill our air, waters, lungs with so many pollutants that factory worker came out after a days shift looking like the just came out of a coal mine blowing open some new coal veins and these were the lady workers making everyday garments, but now (actually for several decades) we know better.
e
We've move ahead learned of safer ways and cleaner ways to mass produce (though certain 3rd world country still exploit workers), yet so much co2 was and is being sent into the atmosphere that to compare it to "punches" is an understatement. These punches are as if Ali punching an ant (he would not do that, just a visual example). 
 If you're the any and the punches represent CO2, How do you roll with that?
If you live to be 100 (and my goodness bless you to do so with the best of health) can you look a child in the eyes and tell them you (we) left them more co2 and to roll with the punches.

The people that then are of the age you are now will ask, Why didn't your generation clean up or at least begin to clean up the pollutants you added to the planet knowing these pollutants would hard the planet & and almost everything living?

What would be your reply?

If you say you didn't know they'll do a quick search and find out that by your teenage years the news was out as to global warming.

 What then?
Quoting 657. LargoFl:

that's ok, that's your way of keeping informed,but there are many others who like seeing how it is in other area's of the state and seeing whats going on there and could this be happening later on in Their neck of the woods..but that's how I see it..and this particular blog has a lot of viewers from florida and even more lurkers,which is why it happens..weeks ago they were talking about the tornado's in the Midwest, and before that..the flooding rains in texas...after all..this is primarily..a weather blog is it not?..well good luck to you..its just the way I see it..




Is that why this blog talk about florida quite a bit?
Quoting 670. georgevandenberghe:



Corn in the DC metro exurbs is also about 3' high as of June 10. This is seasonably normal to a little ahead of normal. Knee high by the fourth of Luly is appropriate for the upper Midwest but way late for here. In the South
the saying is "as high as an Elephant's eye" by that date.

My first corn ears (from an early variety) are targeted for June 15.. cool weather last week caused a few day slippage in ripening. I hoped to tie the 1991 June 11 date (a record that stood until 2010 June 8 and 2012 June 6) but that isn't happening.

I like my corn!


Knee high on the 4th hasn't been a rule of thumb here in Iowa for 40-50 years ..... More like shoulder high unless too much rain kept the farmers out of the fields in May ..... Back when that was a rule of thumb the average corn stalk was only about 6 ft tall ..... Most people don't realize but nearly 1/3 of Iowa was prairie potholes and shallow swamps that were drained and filled for farmland .... Iowa is the state that has been altered environmentally more than any other state .... 95% of the prairie and 95% of the wetlands are long gone which is part of the reason we have fertilizer runoff problems and poor water quality ... And a bunch of Fictional Conservatives who think farmers are going to volunteer to raise their costs and lower their profits which is a pretty ignorant thing for any businessman to think will work ..... It just goes against Human Nature just like Communism


"I feel very definitely that the administration is absolutely correct in cracking down on companies and corporations and municipalities that continue to pollute the nation's air and water. While I am a great believer in the free competitive enterprise system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the right of our people to live in a clean and pollution-free environment.

To this end, it is my belief that when pollution is found, it should be halted at the source, even if this requires stringent government action against important segments of our national economy."

- Barry Goldwater, 1969 (And you just don't get more Conservative than Goldwater)