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Tropical Storm Blanca Hits Baja a Month Earlier Than Their Previous Earliest Landfall

By: Jeff Masters 1:43 PM GMT on June 08, 2015

Tropical Storm Blanca made landfall on the west side of Mexico's Baja Peninsula near 8 am EDT Monday June 8, 2015, with top winds near 45 mph. Blanca's landfall comes a month earlier than the previous earliest landfall on record for Baja, a strike by Tropical Storm Calvin on July 8, 1993. Calvin made landfall south of La Paz with sustained winds of 45 mph. Satellite loops show that Blanca's heavy thunderstorms are pushing northwards over the Baja Peninsula and into Mainland Mexico, and rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches can be expected in these areas through Monday. Moisture from Blanca will flow into Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico beginning on Tuesday, bringing localized rains of 1 - 2 inches. Blanca brought top sustained winds of 34 mph to Los Cabos Airport on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula Sunday night.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Blanca as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday June 7, 2015. At the time, Blanca was weakening from a Catgeory 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Hurricane Blanca sat in place for three days, intensifying from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Blanca's strong winds were able to stir up cool waters from the depths that cooled the oceans surface temperature a remarkable 9°C (16°F)--from 30°C (86°F) to 21°C (70°F.) This is one of the most intense cold wakes left by a hurricane that I've seen. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

New Northeast Pacific disturbance 94E may develop near Mexican coast
An area of low pressure (Invest 94E) has formed in the Pacific a few hundred miles south of Mexico's Gulf of Tehauntepec, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are a very warm 30°C (86°F), but satellite loops show 94E does not yet have much organization of its heavy thunderstorms. The 00Z Monday run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that 94E would develop into a tropical depression by Thursday and begin bringing heavy rains to the southeast coast of Mexico that day. A motion west-northwest parallel and just offshore was predicted, which would make 94E a dangerous heavy rain threat for the coast. In their 8 am EDT Monday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 80%, respectively. It is possible that moisture from this disturbance could flow northwards into the southwest Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche early next week, boosting the chances of a tropical disturbance capable of forming into a tropical depression there.

To follow this year's action in the tropics, I recommend the Twitter feed of NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What an awesome year on tap for the E-Pac in terms of storm formation especially with El-Nino getting into Strong Territory next month. Plenty of energy will be available for systems to Flourish south of Mexico.

El-Nino forecast to reach 2C by August according to the NMME update as of June. Also note the spread is not as vast like back in May

June Update


May Update has a very vast spread
I just asked this question on the previous blog right before the new blog. Can someone tell me the OFFICIAL El Niño designation that we are in now. Weak, moderate, strong?

Thank you
El Nino is a Hoax,

The Pacific hasn't warmed in 14 years,

Al Gore,


yada, yada, yada...
Quoting 4. Patrap:

El Nino is a Hoax,

The Pacific hasn't warmed in 14 years,

Al Gore,


yada, yada, yada...


Quoting 4. Patrap:

El Nino is a Hoax,

The Pacific hasn't warmed in 14 years,

Al Gore,


yada, yada, yada...


So you don't know or just making a joke?
Quoting 3. Bucsboltsfan:

I just asked this question on the previous blog right before the new blog. Can someone tell me the OFFICIAL El Ni%uFFFDo designation that we are in now. Weak, moderate, strong?

Thank you


Officially as of the MAM ONI we are still considered in weak El-Nino (0.7C) but the next ONI update for AMJ should reach or exceed 1C which would put us officially in moderate El-Nino. Also by the JJA update we should be near 1.5C which would be right at Strong El-Nino just in time for the peak of the 2016 Hurricane Season.
Interesting how Blanca is keeping cool cloud tops near it's center :

Quoting 3. Bucsboltsfan:

I just asked this question on the previous blog right before the new blog. Can someone tell me the OFFICIAL El Niño designation that we are in now. Weak, moderate, strong?

Thank you


****WEAK****.
Thanks Dr. Will be curious to see if 94e makes hurricane status in the E-Pac and how strong it will get before landfall given the low shear and high ssts.




Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:



Officially as of the MAM ONI we are still considered in weak El-Nino (0.7C) but the next ONI update for AMJ should reach or exceed 1C which would put us officially in moderate El-Nino. Also by the JJA update we should be near 1.5C which would be right at Strong El-Nino just in time for the peak of the 2016 Hurricane Season.



What's the possibility of going back into neutral conditions?
Quoting 10. Dakster:




What's the possibility of going back into neutral conditions?


One has to push the clutch in, then downshift the atmo to Neutral.

: )

Thanks Doc...All of Mexico will be at a higher risk this year, especially if the El-Nino strengthens..Seems like they have been getting there fair share the past 10 years.
2.5" in my gauge this morning, pretty good booming last night but wasn't expecting quite that much. Haven't seen reports elsewhere yet around S C IL, but yesterday said 1-2" expected. Hope E IL totals similar, know they were below avg. Saw some knee high corn this weekend, looked like all the fields in my area up, hopefully not to many flood issues requiring replant. Didn't notice anything out of ordinary in ditches around town, so hopefully didn't come down at rates to cause too many problems. Edit: coworker told me his on other side of town had 3.5"!

Glad Blanca doesn't seem to have caused Cabo additional problems, hope the rain helps SW, hear Salton Sea could use some help, not as much irrigation runoff making it there anymore.
Quoting 10. Dakster:




What's the possibility of going back into neutral conditions?


Not this year Dakster but next Spring going into next Summer we should fall back to neutral maybe even La Nina for the peak of hurricane season next year. It will be telling next year if our Active Era is over or if we have just hit a lull for a couple of years. After the 1997/1998 El-Nino there were some monster Hurricanes the 1998 Hurricane Season, Hurricane Georges comes to mind from that season. People in PR can attest to that.
Quoting 4. Patrap:

El Nino is a Hoax,

The Pacific hasn't warmed in 14 years,

Al Gore,


yada, yada, yada...
Fresca.? this early....?.....it is hot now...so
16F drop is incredible



Figure 2. Hurricane Blanca sat in place for three days, intensifying from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Blanca's strong winds were able to stir up cool waters from the depths that cooled the oceans surface temperature a remarkable 9°C (16°F)--from 30°C (86°F) to 21°C (70°F.) This is one of the most intense cold wakes left by a hurricane that I've seen. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.
We're hatched with a 5% chance of seeing a Tornado today in D.C.I know the D.C tornado shield will be in full effect today

Remember everyone, tornadoes are unlikely in DC because of the city terrain. You need areas of completely flat land.
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:



Officially as of the MAM ONI we are still considered in weak El-Nino (0.7C) but the next ONI update for AMJ should reach or exceed 1C which would put us officially in moderate El-Nino. Also by the JJA update we should be near 1.5C which would be right at Strong El-Nino just in time for the peak of the 2016 Hurricane Season.


Okay. So aside from what might happen, we are in a weak El Niño. I'll go with that until there is an official designation change.
Quoting 19. Bucsboltsfan:



Okay. So aside from what might happen, we are in a weak El Niño. I'll go with that until there is an official designation change.


Per the ONI yes but there are many factors that suggest we entered moderate threshold starting early last month. ONI next month will make it official as May had atleast 1C every week and June will have 1.2C to 1.5C every week so the average should come in @ or over 1C on the next reading.
Quoting 16. hydrus:

Fresca.? this early....?.....it is hot now...so


Fresca was discontinued, just like Classic wu.

I'm a Dapper Dan Man now.

So Pat, what's in your coffee this morning.  For sure, it must be more than just caffeine. :-)

Quoting 12. Patrap:


One has to push the clutch in, then downshift the atmo to Neutral.
: )


Solid MJO being forecast come mid to late June. Could yield another strong WWB later this month.

MJO


Strong WWB being forecast late June
Quoting 21. Patrap:



Fresca was discontinued, just like Classic wu.

I'm a Dapper Dan Man now.



http://www.amazon.com/Original-Fresca-Soda-12oz-C ans/dp/B002U5C0KQ

Sorry, just trying to help Patrap out.
Quoting 22. RickWPB:

So Pat, what's in your coffee this morning.  For sure, it must be more than just caffeine. :-)




LOL! You may not want to know that answer!
A good Monday, warm and muggy though, with a Heat index of 100F forecasted for this afternoon.

Had a good weekend.

Plus, Mon morning financial news was good.

A investment made of futures came in.

Trading Places comes to mind.

Plus the Atlantic is closed, but looking downstream some energy is going to slide N into the GOM come Weds,Thurs seems now.


Earth Scan lab, LSU


The chorus of them 2 day old Healthy German Shepherd's nursing and whining is pleasant too.

We dubbed dem, 8 diners and whiner's already.




SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FLZ172-081530-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

* AT 1022 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SHOWER
PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...HOLLYWOOD...POMPANO BEACH...DEERFIELD BEACH...
LIGHTHOUSE POINT...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...OAKLAND PARK...DANIA
BEACH...WILTON MANORS...HILLSBORO BEACH...SEA RANCH LAKES...PORT
EVERGLADES...FORT LAUDERDALE - HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...TERRA MAR...
POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT AND NORTH AndrewS GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A WATERSPOUT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE, SERIOUS
INJURY, OR EVEN DEATH. NEARBY PIERS...MARINAS...DOCKS...AND BEACH
FACILITIES ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THE
PATH OF THIS WATERSPOUT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
ROOFS...PORCHES...AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES.

&&

LAT...LON 2623 8009 2611 8010 2610 8010 2611 8012
2610 8011 2608 8011 2602 8012 2603 8012
2603 8013 2604 8016 2630 8012 2627 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 121DEG 6KT 2615 8011

$$
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SW MONSOON WINDS INCREASING S OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN POSSIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIO FROM THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 08N95W THROUGH WED.
THIS COULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT N OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUE.

$$
MUNDELL
Latest NMME forecast is out:






Previous Month:

conditions highly favorable for EP94 where it is now.............................
Quoting 21. Patrap:



Fresca was discontinued, just like Classic wu.

I'm a Dapper Dan Man now.


Lucky some of us know how to brew our own....specially when there is a hurricane movin at ya
Thanks for the update, doc!

My last glance at the summit in Bavaria:

"Look, our Alps are soooo big, and there are so many clouds to boot ..." lol:

Credit: REUTERS/Michael Kappeler/Pool; source.

G7 leaders agree to strive for low-carbon economy
KRUEN, Germany | By Paul Carrel, Reuters, Green Business | Mon Jun 8, 2015 10:54am EDT

G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century
The Guardian, Kate Connolly in Garmisch Partenkirchen, Monday 8 June 2015 15.48 BST
German chancellor Angela Merkel announces commitment to 'decarbonise global economy' and end extreme poverty and hunger ...

G7: Protests, climate and few commitments
Deutsche Welle English, June 8, 2015
The G7 is drawing to a close in Bavaria. While the summit was overshadowed by crises in Ukraine and Greece, progress was made on climate change. Naomi Conrad reports from Garmisch-Partenkirchen. ...

Have a nice day everyone; I'm out for a week for a vacation trip (hopefully with internet connection).
From the previous blog

297. TCweatherman
8:39 AM CDT on June 08, 2015
0 +
Where in Alabama do you see a high of 95 and I didn't see anywhere hit 99 like you said yesterday?


It's my personal weather station. The official forecast is for 92 but that's at the Eufaula Airport, which is about five miles out of town and located close to Lake Eufaula. I live in town, and it's always 2-3 degrees warmer here than the airport. I've tested my weather station with two other thermometers with different exposures and they are within 1-2 degrees of each other. That's about as close as we get without a professional station and perfect siting. Since my weather station is exposed to direct sunlight, even though it has an aspirating fan to cool the thermocouple, it can read 2 degrees high when we have intense sunlight like yesterday, so the actual high might have been closer to 97 than 99. We have the misfortune of living in an area with very few official stations. The closest to me are Troy, Dothan, and Columbus GA, all about 50 miles in different directions from here. All three tend to have different conditions than me, and the AWOS station at the airport is unmanned, old, and pretty unreliable, so I depend on my own observations.

Do you have a weather station, or a max-min thermometer? If not, getting at least the thermometer and building an instrument shelter is a good way to learn about the weather at your house rather than depending on official stations. This is how I got started in the hobby 60 years ago. I was 10 years old and stole one of the side shutters from the house. It had louvers just like the pictures of instrument shelters I had seen in the encyclopedia, so I cut it up, screwed it together, used plywood for a double roof, painted the whole thing white, and mounted it in the middle of the back lawn on one of my mom's plant stands. I was pretty proud of myself until dad spotted the missing shutter and mom spotted her missing plant stand. I was on weed pulling duty the next two weeks. :-)
Quoting 9. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. Will be curious to see if 94e makes hurricane status in the E-Pac and how strong it will get before landfall given the low shear and high ssts.







Could be something like Carlotta in 2012 or stronger than it.



Quoting 37. barbamz:

Thanks for the update, doc!

My last glance at the summit in Bavaria:

"Look, our Alps are soooo big, and there are so many clouds to boot ..." lol:

Credit: REUTERS/Michael Kappeler/Pool; source.

G7 leaders agree to strive for low-carbon economy
KRUEN, Germany | By Paul Carrel, Reuters, Green Business | Mon Jun 8, 2015 10:54am EDT

G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century
The Guardian, Kate Connolly in Garmisch Partenkirchen, Monday 8 June 2015 15.48 BST
German chancellor Angela Merkel announces commitment to 'decarbonise global economy' and end extreme poverty and hunger ...

G7: Protests, climate and few commitments
Deutsche Welle English, June 8, 2015
The G7 is drawing to a close in Bavaria. While the summit was overshadowed by crises in Ukraine and Greece, progress was made on climate change. Naomi Conrad reports from Garmisch-Partenkirchen. ...

Have a nice day everyone; I'm out for a week for a vacation trip (hopefully with internet connection).
Are you sure Merkel isn't talking about her last fishing trip? :-)

Have fun on your vacation. You officially get a week off from the newsbeat.
Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

We're hatched with a 5% chance of seeing a Tornado today in D.C.I know the D.C tornado shield will be in full effect today

Remember everyone, tornadoes are unlikely in DC because of the city terrain. You need areas of completely flat land.
I think the people of the Rock Creek valley at about 2000 feet elevation in the mountains of northeastern Tennessee would take issue with that statement -- in the 80s I drove through that area a day after a tornado had passed through doing considerable damage.
Quoting 39. hydrus:




I emptied 3.18 inches of rain from the big flare-up over Central Illinois you can see in that radar image from yesterday afternoon .. A wind gust of 78 mph was recorded just west of my location ..
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1129 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FLZ173-081615-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-
1129 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

* AT 1127 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SHOWER
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT LESS THAN ONE MILE OFFSHORE 63RD STREET ON
MIAMI BEACH. THIS SHOWER WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI BEACH...KEY BISCAYNE...SURFSIDE...SUNNY ISLES BEACH...
NORTH BAY VILLAGE...FISHER ISLAND...
BAY HARBOR ISLANDS AND BAL HARBOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A WATERSPOUT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE, SERIOUS
INJURY, OR EVEN DEATH. NEARBY PIERS...MARINAS...DOCKS...AND BEACH
FACILITIES ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THE
PATH OF THIS WATERSPOUT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
ROOFS...PORCHES...AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES.

&&

LAT...LON 2581 8012 2567 8016 2569 8018 2573 8015
2574 8017 2576 8014 2576 8015 2577 8014
2585 8013 2584 8015 2585 8015 2588 8013
2588 8014 2590 8013 2595 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 097DEG 1KT 2585 8012

$$
Recent shots of Blanca and area around 94e:


Kind of strange, you look at the Miami radar and there's just a couple green blips on the radar, doesn't look like there would be anything severe!
Current Big Picture; something's gotta give again in the E-Pac again over the next 24-72 hours:

Quoting 31. nrtiwlnvragn:

Latest NMME forecast is out:






Previous Month:




Already posted it.
Northern Hemisphere hurricane season off to record start, fueled by El Niño

To determine how active a hurricane season has been thus far, scientists use a tool called accumulated cyclone energy — a measure of wind speed over time in each individual storm, which is then summed across all storms. Basically, this measurement, which meteorologists refer to as “ACE,” is a rudimentary way to calculate the activity of any given season.

According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, this measurement of hurricane activity has surged to a new record high so far in 2015. As of Sunday, the ACE for the Northern Hemisphere was an astonishing 152, while the previous record high for the year-to-date was 102.

Not only has the Northern Hemisphere blown away the old record, but it’s done it three weeks prior to the old record of 152, which was on June 28, 2004. In other words, this record is coming three weeks ahead of schedule. The normal ACE at this point in the season is just 41.


Link
This water vapor shot for the Pacific is real purdy also: Blanca looks very small at the moment compared to what may be the the next E-Pac storm if you ask me...................................

pesky.trough.nw.carib.
Portions of the E-Pac TWD from Noon EST:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 8 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA INLAND CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 112.0W AT
08/1500 UTC MOVING NNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KHNC OR PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 28N. BLANCA IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOVING OVER LAND...AND DECREASE TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.


SW MONSOON WINDS INCREASING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
POSSIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO FROM THE LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 08N93W THROUGH WED.

Starting to see what appears to be some nice lower level convergence around 8N-96W

Blanca is dissipating now and has brought TS conditions to the Baja California Sur. However, now a new area, 94E is soon to follow,

Read more..
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1036 am CDT Monday Jun 8 2015

Update...

Main issue today will be the potential for severe weather.
Currently a line of showers is located from Macon County southwestward
to Wayne County. This line should continue to push eastward with
additional development likely through 18z per the latest hrrr
runs. Bumped probability of precipitation up on the plateau prior to 18z for this line and
additional development. Also bumped up highs on the plateau with
quick warming this morning due full sun.

As far as the severe potential the focus will mainly be this
afternoon. Effective bulk shear should increase to at or below 30 kts by
21z. Short wave trough axis should be just west of the area by
that time with surface boundary just pushing into the far northwest corner of
the County Warning Area. One big question will be how much recovery will occur with
current convection. Hrrr has been breaking out disorganized
scattered showers and storms across the area by 18z.
The associated
cloud cover looks to hold cape values to 1500 j/kg or less and not
favor a large organized severe threat. If convection can hold off
until middle afternoon a more organized severe potential could be
possible.
The main concern would be damaging winds. An isolated
severe hail report could be possible with the strongest updrafts
but wbz height was 10.7 kft on 12z ohx sounding. An isolated
tornado can not be completely ruled out due to any enhanced shear
with residual outflow boundaries with the morning convection. If
convection is scattered per hrrr then an isolated severe threat
will still be possible with mainly damaging winds being the issue.

Reagan
57. vis0
sar2401 this was not uploaded from library therefore not of good quality nor large dimensions.   i felt let me upload something since you've been more than helpful with your advice be it towards me but mostly to anyone that whats to lower the odds of repeating any of life;s errors or just learn from another human being and one can do that by reading several bloggers here on WxU but especially from sar2401's experiences.

Here some nut walking through NYC and pointing at trees that show a constant breeze. More info is on comment #103 of my last active blogbyte at this page.

No questions please as its a weather blog : - P
and stay tuned to NOAA radio for the latest watches & warnings.
Quoting 54. weathermanwannabe:

Starting to see what appears to be some nice lower level convergence around 8N-96W



That invest is tightening quick.
I couldn't find a definite answer on this so I would be very glad if someone could help me out on this: I really don't have much knowledge on El Niño but as far as I know it causes negative SST anomalies east of the Philippines (and generally in the Western Pacific?) If so, why has this season been so active in the Western Pacific and why do El Niño years feature more cyclones globally anyway if the most active basin has cooler SST? Thank you very much!
I don't have one however I do know that our weather station at the airport is usually 3 degrees cooler than the actual temp. I'll consider getting a thermometer. Do you think that I will get any rain today? It looks like you will get some rain today as a squall line may be developing in north Alabama. Haha i'll learn from you not to steal I'll will get a good ole whooping.
Quoting 38. sar2401:

From the previous blog

297. TCweatherman
8:39 AM CDT on June 08, 2015
0 +
Where in Alabama do you see a high of 95 and I didn't see anywhere hit 99 like you said yesterday?


It's my personal weather station. The official forecast is for 92 but that's at the Eufaula Airport, which is about five miles out of town and located close to Lake Eufaula. I live in town, and it's always 2-3 degrees warmer here than the airport. I've tested my weather station with two other thermometers with different exposures and they are within 1-2 degrees of each other. That's about as close as we get without a professional station and perfect siting. Since my weather station is exposed to direct sunlight, even though it has an aspirating fan to cool the thermocouple, it can read 2 degrees high when we have intense sunlight like yesterday, so the actual high might have been closer to 97 than 99. We have the misfortune of living in an area with very few official stations. The closest to me are Troy, Dothan, and Columbus GA, all about 50 miles in different directions from here. All three tend to have different conditions than me, and the AWOS station at the airport is unmanned, old, and pretty unreliable, so I depend on my own observations.

Do you have a weather station, or a max-min thermometer? If not, getting at least the thermometer and building an instrument shelter is a good way to learn about the weather at your house rather than depending on official stations. This is how I got started in the hobby 60 years ago. I was 10 years old and stole one of the side shutters from the house. It had louvers just like the pictures of instrument shelters I had seen in the encyclopedia, so I cut it up, screwed it together, used plywood for a double roof, painted the whole thing white, and mounted it in the middle of the back lawn on one of my mom's plant stands. I was pretty proud of myself until dad spotted the missing shutter and mom spotted her missing plant stand. I was on weed pulling duty the next two weeks. :-)
Any pictures yet?
Quoting 44. LargoFl:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1129 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FLZ173-081615-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-
1129 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

* AT 1127 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SHOWER
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT LESS THAN ONE MILE OFFSHORE 63RD STREET ON
MIAMI BEACH. THIS SHOWER WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI BEACH...KEY BISCAYNE...SURFSIDE...SUNNY ISLES BEACH...
NORTH BAY VILLAGE...FISHER ISLAND...
BAY HARBOR ISLANDS AND BAL HARBOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A WATERSPOUT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE, SERIOUS
INJURY, OR EVEN DEATH. NEARBY PIERS...MARINAS...DOCKS...AND BEACH
FACILITIES ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THE
PATH OF THIS WATERSPOUT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
ROOFS...PORCHES...AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES.

&&

LAT...LON 2581 8012 2567 8016 2569 8018 2573 8015
2574 8017 2576 8014 2576 8015 2577 8014
2585 8013 2584 8015 2585 8015 2588 8013
2588 8014 2590 8013 2595 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 097DEG 1KT 2585 8012

$$
looks like another round of wet

Quoting 58. Huracan94:


That invest is tightening quick.


It's looking good but we will have to see if it is going to tighten up quickly or take some time (as suggested by NHC as a medium term TD).............Takes a bit of time for a low to consolidate and start rotating in a large area of disorganized convection a few hundred miles in circumference around the current low location. Will only note that the topographical "curve" in Mexico which helps form the Gulf of Tehuantepec might help with some of the circulation consolidation. We should have a better picture of the time frame for a TD by this time tomorrow..............I am leaning towards sooner than later at the moment based on the current imagery.
btw here is 06Z

Quoting 62. wunderkidcayman:

looks like another round of wet




Models are showing 2 surges of tropical moisture moving NW from the Caribbean the first plume comes mid week and the second comes this weekend and the second system could be the seed for a tropical system in the Central Gulf. Here is what I am referring too below.

High shear over the system so anything that tries to form will be lopsided.

Is it me or something wants to get going in the Caribbean thoughts.
67. Ed22
Good afternoon everyone, the Eastern Pacific its getting its grove on with a potential Tropical Depression from invest 94E which currently sitting under low wind - shear of 5 to 10 knots. Tropical Storm Blanca made landfall over Baja California in Mexico as a 45mph system, however flooding and landslides is expected from Tropical Storm Blanca's heavy torrential rains. Over our area the Tropical Atlantic is nothing much going on just pairs of Tropical wave moving across the Tropical Atlantic, however the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico need to be " MONITORED" for potential Tropical System to develop further down into the Week into next Weekend. Their is a little Tropical feature over the Southern Caribbean Sea South, South West (SSW) of Jamaica, however this little Tropical feature is under Moderate wind-shear of 20 to 30 knots and could fall over time...
Are we still in the MJO?

Quoting 62. wunderkidcayman:

looks like another round of wet


Quoting 66. HurricaneAndre:


Is it me or something wants to get going in the Caribbean thoughts.

yes
but we need to wait and see
we need to wait for the conditions to be ok

but for now more rain and flooding for us here
Quoting 68. 19N81W:

Are we still in the MJO?



hmm
I'd say yes

Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:


hmm
I'd say yes


And it looks that way for a while.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located near the southwestern coast of Baja California
Sur.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad low pressure area centered several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to form around the
middle of the week while this system moves slowly northwestward or
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 14. dabirds:

2.5" in my gauge this morning, pretty good booming last night but wasn't expecting quite that much. Haven't seen reports elsewhere yet around S C IL, but yesterday said 1-2" expected. Hope E IL totals similar, know they were below avg. Saw some knee high corn this weekend, looked like all the fields in my area up, hopefully not to many flood issues requiring replant. Didn't notice anything out of ordinary in ditches around town, so hopefully didn't come down at rates to cause too many problems. Edit: coworker told me his on other side of town had 3.5"!

Glad Blanca doesn't seem to have caused Cabo additional problems, hope the rain helps SW, hear Salton Sea could use some help, not as much irrigation runoff making it there anymore.


Last two rain events spanning the the past 7 days, I've dumped 1.8 & 1.6" respectively. So we have more than cut in half our annual rainfall deficit in just the last week.

Surprisingly though, I was in a bit of a hole compared to everyone around. Most places from I-72 south to just the south of the I-70 corridor received 2-3" of rainfall. Champaign & Vermillion had monster totals since the warm front stayed stationary on them for 3 hours or so before the major squall line pushed through. There was a decent sized area that received 4-5" plus inches.

Last nights storm....


Last 14 days...

Quoting 66. HurricaneAndre:


Is it me or something wants to get going in the Caribbean thoughts.
Looks like something will pop up..its wait and see.

EPac TWO 94E upped 50%/90%
Quoting 77. wunderkidcayman:

EPac TWO 94E upped 50%/90%


Wow, maybe Carlos tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday lol, earlier than Cristina last year (named in June 10th)
79. Ed22
Quoting 66. HurricaneAndre:


Is it me or something wants to get going in the Caribbean thoughts.
I Think so and its need to be "MONITORED" closely
because something could spin- up at any given time...
Quoting 76. hydrus:

Looks like something will pop up..its wait and see.



couldn't say it better myself lol
yep
A little "dot" of convection now near the potential coc right at 8.2N-95.8W:
Quoting 76. hydrus:

Looks like something will pop up..its wait and see.





GFS was the first to show this set up this past weekend as I kept noticing an odd looking vort moving the the Yucatan Channel around Day 7/8 time period. Models seem to wanna take to Louisiana maybe as far east as the FL panhandle by the looks at some of these GFS ENS.

Thru day 8 GFS ENS
Quoting 78. pablosyn:



Wow, maybe Carlos tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday lol, earlier than Cristina last year (named in June 10th)

woah ho lets not get ahead of ours selfs here
all this determines is when tropical cyclone formation not its intensity
although intensity models do show TS within 6-24hrs
although I learnt not to trust the first few model runs more so when we do not have a definitive LLCOC
lets just relax and wait and see what happens yeah

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located near the southwestern coast of Baja California
Sur.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad low pressure area centered several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to form around the
middle of the week while this system moves slowly northwestward or
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Blake
Hope most of it soaked in ILwthr, glad you guys are catching up.

Sun popped out over lunch hour, jumped to 75, dew pts still up in 70s though, hoping front lowers that soon, but w/ a lot of sun and all this moisture, maybe not. 85 predicted high should be in range if sun keeps shining.
Quoting 82. weathermanwannabe:

A little "dot" of convection now near the potential coc right at 8.2N-95.8W:



the only thing I see is a broad elongated low
this will change soon but for now that's what it is
you can expect with this multiple LLC we will need to wait and see which one consolidates
Quoting 87. wunderkidcayman:



the only thing I see is a broad elongated low
this will change soon but for now that's what it is
you can expect with this multiple LLC we will need to wait and see which one consolidates


It's drifting slowly towards the W-NW and consolidating in this general area; once a TD forms (over the next 24-48 if the current organization continues), it will probably be initialized as a TD closer to 97W tomorrow or Wednesday IMHO.
well pick your model..all say either NOLA or Panhandle of florida so far...week away time yet.....
Starting to see some model trends with a landfalling tropical storm along the gulf coast.
Good afternoon all. Summer has arrived.

Mostly Cloudy
92°F
33°C
Humidity 52%
Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph
Barometer 29.99 in (1015.4 mb)
Dewpoint 72°F (22°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 100°F (38°C)
Last update 8 Jun 12:53 pm CDT
12z UKMet

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 97.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 11.06.2015 13.2N 96.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 12.06.2015 13.7N 97.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.06.2015 14.7N 96.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.06.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 76. hydrus:

Looks like something will pop up..its wait and see.


All I see in the GOH is typical diurnal convection. If a low does form, the likely path would be over to Columbia rather than north in the Caribbean. Until the shear relaxes, nothing is going to be able to survive.
Quoting 94. ncstorm:

12z UKMet

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 97.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 11.06.2015 13.2N 96.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 12.06.2015 13.7N 97.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.06.2015 14.7N 96.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.06.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



looks more or less a zig-zag pattern while moving N or NNE
99. vis0

Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

We're hatched with a 5% chance of seeing a Tornado today in D.C.I know the D.C tornado shield will be in full effect today

Remember everyone, tornadoes are unlikely in DC because of the city terrain. You need areas of completely flat land.
BE alert
100. vis0

Quoting 38. sar2401:

From the previous blog

297. TCweatherman
8:39 AM CDT on June 08, 2015
0 +
Where in Alabama do you see a high of 95 and I didn't see anywhere hit 99 like you said yesterday?


It's my personal weather station. The official forecast is for 92 but that's at the Eufaula Airport, which is about five miles out of town and located close to Lake Eufaula. I live in town, and it's always 2-3 degrees warmer here than the airport. I've tested my weather station with two other thermometers with different exposures and they are within 1-2 degrees of each other. That's about as close as we get without a professional station and perfect siting. Since my weather station is exposed to direct sunlight, even though it has an aspirating fan to cool the thermocouple, it can read 2 degrees high when we have intense sunlight like yesterday, so the actual high might have been closer to 97 than 99. We have the misfortune of living in an area with very few official stations. The closest to me are Troy, Dothan, and Columbus GA, all about 50 miles in different directions from here. All three tend to have different conditions than me, and the AWOS station at the airport is unmanned, old, and pretty unreliable, so I depend on my own observations.

Do you have a weather station, or a max-min thermometer? If not, getting at least the thermometer and building an instrument shelter is a good way to learn about the weather at your house rather than depending on official stations. This is how I got started in the hobby 60 years ago. I was 10 years old and stole one of the side shutters from the house. It had louvers just like the pictures of instrument shelters I had seen in the encyclopedia, so I cut it up, screwed it together, used plywood for a double roof, painted the whole thing white, and mounted it in the middle of the back lawn on one of my mom's plant stands. I was pretty proud of myself until dad spotted the missing shutter and mom spotted her missing plant stand. I was on weed pulling duty the next two weeks. :-)
i knew it you're Bob Villa (of:: This Old House, Bob Vila's Home Again)
WEATHER:: partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy 75F (though its an avg between a regular thermometer and an old meat thermometer so???...i use an old turkey to shade the meat thermometer ...just kidding) use a mercury and a bimetallic strip thermometer (later gift from my Science Teach) its 75F getting cloudy feels (not any scientific statement) like storms will pop close by (nj-s. nj, md. and re pop as they pass by here))