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Category 2 Hurricane Blanca Headed Towards Baja Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2015

Hurricane Blanca off the Pacific coast of Mexico has changed little since Thursday morning, when the storm weakened significantly from Category 4 strength to a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, thanks to cooler waters from the depths that were churned up by the hurricane's powerful winds. The eyewall completely collapsed on Thursday, and satellite loops show that Blanca is struggling to rebuild a new eyewall in the face of wind shear that has risen to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots. Late Friday morning, infrared satellite images showed that the intensity and areal coverage of Blanca's heavy thunderstorms had increased markedly, though, and it is likely that the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will find an intensifying hurricane when they investigate the storm on Friday afternoon. Blanca will be over warm waters until Saturday afternoon, when it will hit cooler waters and a drier surrounding air mass. These conditions should lead to gradual weakening, and Blanca should be below hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Sunday night or Monday. Blanca will pose a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula beginning on Sunday. Moisture from Blanca will flow into Arizona and New Mexico beginning on Tuesday, bringing localized rains of up to one inch.


Figure 1. Category 2 Hurricane Blanca (right) and a dissipating Tropical Storm Andres (left) as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi spacecraft on June 4, 2015. Moisture from Andres can be seen flowing across the Mexico's Baja Peninsula into Arizona. Image credit: NASA Worldview.


Figure 2. Predicted total precipitation from the 06Z Friday June 5, 2015 run of the GFDL model. Some areas of 4 - 8" were predicted for the southern Baja Peninsula and Mainland Mexico south of the Arizona border. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

The last hurricane in Baja: destructive Hurricane Odile of 2014
While Blanca's rains may cause some flooding problems on Mexico's Baja Peninsula, Blanca's impact on Baja will be nothing like last year's Hurricane Odile, which roared ashore near Cabo San Lucas as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds on September 25. Odile was the strongest storm on record to hit Baja, and killed eleven and did $1.22 billion in damage, making it the 6th most expensive Northeast Pacific hurricane ever. The name "Odile" was retired from the list of Northeast Pacific hurricanes, and will be replaced by "Odalys", which will appear on the list of names for the 2020 season. Odile is one of only thirteen hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific to get its name retired since naming began in 1960.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile approaching the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 4:30 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Remnants of Andres bringing rain to Arizona
Hurricane Andres dissipated over the cool waters off the Baja coast of Mexico on Thursday, but moisture from the storm's remnants has sloshed into the Southwest, bringing Phoenix, Arizona its first measurable rain ever recorded on June 5th. A thunderstorm around 7 am local time Friday brought 0.02" to the city. Weather records in Phoenix go back to 1896. Early June is usually a dry time in Central Arizona, since the cold fronts of spring do not push that far south, and the summer monsoon season usually holds off until early July. That's when summer heat builds to the point where the deserts create enough rising hot air to suck in moist air from the ocean areas to the south to replace the rising air, bringing spectacular thunderstorms.

New Northeast Pacific disturbance may develop near Mexican coast
The GFS and European models are predicting the formation of an area of low pressure area early next week a few hundred miles south or south-southeast of Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec. The 00Z Friday run of the European model predicted that this disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday and begin bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico just west of Guatemala on Wednesday and Thursday. The Friday morning runs of the GFS model did not show the disturbance developing. In their 2 pm EDT Friday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.

Links
Live streaming camera on the very southern tip of Baja California.
Another camera is just east of this one, on the Bay (Bahia) of San Lucas at Sunset Da Monalisa.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wow quiet on the blog
thanks Dr. Masters for the update
I wonder if it isn't slightly premature to declare that "Blanca's impact on Baja will be nothing like Odile."
(from old blog)
Quoting 436. jpsb:

Summery: a result can not have more significant figures then the least significant data set
a result can not be more precise (accurate) then the least precise data set.





Not true at all. If that was the case, it would be impossible for astronomers to stack images to improve signal to noise. S/N improves with the square root of the number of samples.

Assuming the real data lies between [0,1] and the probability distribution is flat, and you take 10 independent samples, the average is still 0.5, however the new probability distribution is no longer flat, it approaches a Gaussian.

This is known as the Central Limit Theorem. Link
Thank You Dr. That picture of both storms with the streaming into Arizona says it all. Great stat also that I was not aware of until now:

Early June is usually a dry time in Central Arizona, since the cold fronts of spring do not push that far south, and the summer monsoon season usually holds off until early July. That's when summer heat builds to the point where the deserts create enough rising hot air to suck in moist air from the ocean areas to the south to replace the rising air, bringing spectacular thunderstorms.
Good morning everyone, wind-shear have drop significantly from 40 to 60 knots and now in the low to moderate range 10 to 30 knots, surprisingly the tropical disturbance ( surface trough) is still their and wind-shear could continue fall through the weekend into next week. I think this tropical disturbance (surface trough) could further develop, however the tropical system as of right now firing up thunderstorms with strong convective cloud pattern of showers to the West North-West of Jamaica over the Western Caribbean Sea. Weather enthusiasts what your opinion on it ???
Thanks Dr. M. Glad to read Blanca will be weakening before nearing land.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the new post. Best wishes to the people of Baja this weekend, hopefully it is just a really good downpour for them...
And here is what the E-Pac adjacent to El Salvador and Guatemala looks like currently: if an area of low pressure does develop with another storm forming next week, this would literally qualify as an E-Pac "A-B-C" storm cluster within a short time frame much like we see with the Atlantic during the peak period during an active phase bolstered by a very moist and active ITCZ off of Africa into the Central Atlantic.
The Atlantic peak period African monsoon vs. the current E-Pack Central American monsoon period.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 15:01:08 N Lon : 107:01:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 951.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 44 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.6 degrees

************************************************* ***









Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
Quoting 4. MahFL:



Blanca's looking alot better than she did last night. Probably has winds at 100 knots now.
The "A" Storm from 2001 was taking Her toll this week in Texas and then Louisiana.

Allison, the only Tropical Storm to have it's name retired.


Quoting 13. Patrap:

The "A" Storm from 2001 was taking Her toll this week in Texas and then Louisiana.

Allison, the only Tropical Storm to have it's name retired.




Oh man, I remember that storm back when I was living in Metairie, LA . We ended up with a puddle of water in the hallway from that sucker. It may not sound like much, but considering we had a 10' deep canal less than a block away from our apartment it was no small feat for a tropical storm.
Seems all the floaters are stuck due to an Internet Outage. Blanca ghcc visible loop
Looking very active across C & N FL today.

Blanca s current projected wind field is very impressive, it s pretty funny as her wind field when she was a cat 4 was one of the worst I have seen in such a powerful storm.
Recon incoming

Boom! 12pm hits and storms start firing fast.



scott check out the LOW down in south florida and rainfall amounts there..............
Quoting 16. StormTrackerScott:

Looking very active across C & N FL today.




Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie is back to dryness. Low 20% chance of precip but hopefully it will get back to summer normalcy next week.
And on/during this anniversary of Allison

NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 10m10 minutes ago
Again don't forget about the free Hurricane Workshop tomorrow, Sat Jun 6. Go to http://www.hurricaneworkshop.com for details. #houwx #HurricanePrep


The annual Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop aims to prepare residents for hurricane season through presentations, interactive exhibits, hurricane forecasting and more. This free event is family-friendly and open to the public. The workshop is the largest of its kind in the nation with more than 2,500 attendees each year.

In 2014, the organizing committee of the Hurricane Workshop received the Walter J Bennett Public Service Award from the National Weather Association. The Association highlighted how the collaboration between private industry and government agencies at the Workshop ensures that the whole community remains informed.
Quoting 20. LargoFl:

scott check out the LOW down in south florida and rainfall amounts there..............
Hello Largo!, I wonder where this low is coming from I also has been checking the Nam Models and they show a lot of rain for us here in South Florida,so far very cloudy but not a drop of rain?, and the dry air from the Gulf of Mexico is approaching fast,so I assume if this low develops it will have to come from south of Cuba?,the Nam has been very very persistent with this solution.
Quoting 22. AtHomeInTX:

And on/during this anniversary of Allison

NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 10m10 minutes ago
Again don't forget about the free Hurricane Workshop tomorrow, Sat Jun 6. Go to http://www.hurricaneworkshop.com for details. #houwx #HurricanePrep


The annual Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop aims to prepare residents for hurricane season through presentations, interactive exhibits, hurricane forecasting and more. This free event is family-friendly and open to the public. The workshop is the largest of its kind in the nation with more than 2,500 attendees each year.

In 2014, the organizing committee of the Hurricane Workshop received the Walter J Bennett Public Service Award from the National Weather Association. The Association highlighted how the collaboration between private industry and government agencies at the Workshop ensures that the whole community remains informed.


We are having hurricane workshops this weekend at the Civic Center in Port St. Lucie as well as at the Indian River Mall in Vero Beach. 'Tis the season to prepare.
Thanks Doc..Odile was a terrible storm. this year could be rough for the Baha Peninsula.
Quoting 3. hendric:

(from old blog)


Not true at all. If that was the case, it would be impossible for astronomers to stack images to improve signal to noise. S/N improves with the square root of the number of samples.

Assuming the real data lies between [0,1] and the probability distribution is flat, and you take 10 independent samples, the average is still 0.5, however the new probability distribution is no longer flat, it approaches a Gaussian.

This is known as the Central Limit Theorem. Link


I don't understand how he could not be aware of this. This is introductory first chapter of statistics and data analysis. Anyone claiming to be well versed in science involving statistics should have at least a rudimentary understanding of Central Limit Theorum.
Quoting 24. rmbjoe1954:



We are having hurricane workshops this weekend at the Civic Center in Port St. Lucie as well as at the Indian River Mall in Vero Beach. 'Tis the season to prepare.


yes sir, it is
Quoting 23. Hurricane1956:

Hello Largo!, I wonder where this low is coming from I also has been checking the Nam Models and they show a lot of rain for us here in South Florida,so far very cloudy but not a drop of rain?, and the dry air from the Gulf of Mexico is approaching fast,so I assume if this low develops it will have to come from south of Cuba?,the Nam has been very very persistent with this solution.
yes I was hoping scott would know where it comes from but gee..some huge rain amounts inland whew..guess its just going to sit there dumping heavy rain..guess if no Lightning, the rain may help with the fires inland.
well you folks have a good shot at some rain today down there.....................................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING
IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

VISIBILITY: A COMBINATION OF SMOKE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MUD LAKE FIRE COMPLEX AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS, MAINLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, WITH CONVERGENT LINES OF SHOWERS PRESENT
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
Texas almost there. I'm still amazed at how fast this happened.

Oklahoma is officially drought-free for the first time in almost five years, according to a government analysis released Thursday.

Cimarron and western Texas Counties in the Oklahoma panhandle were removed from drought in the latest Drought Monitor as of June 2, leaving the entire Sooner State free of drought for the first time since Oct. 26, 2010, a span of 239 straight weeks.

Kicking off 2015, 62 percent of the state – primarily in western and central Oklahoma – was in some degree of drought. Parts of far southwestern Oklahoma were in exceptional drought, the worst category in the Drought Monitor analysis, as recently as May 5.

Then the deluges came.

A wet spring punctuated by the wettest month on record in both Oklahoma and Texas finally put an end to the four-plus year southern Plains drought.

At its peak, almost 70 percent of Oklahoma was in exceptional drought on Oct. 4, 2011.

The entire Sooner State was in at least some degree of drought two separate times: July 26, 2011 to Nov. 8, 2011 and again from July 31, 2012 to March 26, 2013.

In neighboring Texas, only a few counties in the panhandle remain in drought.





Quoting 23. Hurricane1956:

Hello Largo!, I wonder where this low is coming from I also has been checking the Nam Models and they show a lot of rain for us here in South Florida,so far very cloudy but not a drop of rain?, and the dry air from the Gulf of Mexico is approaching fast,so I assume if this low develops it will have to come from south of Cuba?,the Nam has been very very persistent with this solution.


Maybe from the trough they mention?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL FORM EACH NIGHT OVER THE
NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING AND AMPLIFYING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE FAR SE GULF AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH INTO SAT. EXPECT LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 15 TO 20 KT OFF NW YUCATAN
IN THE LATE EVENINGS.
Looks like Wolfberry may be getting some rain - I think this is his neck of the woods?

By the way, this is what the whole "hiatus" and "pause" talk is all about:



Supposedly, people want us to believe that surface temperature stopped rising over this time period and that the new change to the NCDC data set (labeled as Karl et al) is somehow bad science, poor methodology, fraud, or any number of nonsensical accusations.
Blanca is trying to restrengthen and on satellite imagery it is showing convection that is flaring up. If it wants to restrengthen it only has a day left to do so as the SSTs are going to cool. Interesting storm though.

Read more..
Curious to see how much Blanca will strengthen, assuming she is because she's looking a lot better
storms firing up way down in south florida also already........................................... ................
Quoting 34. Naga5000:

By the way, this is what the whole "hiatus" and "pause" talk is all about:



Supposedly, people want us to believe that surface temperature stopped rising over this time period and that the new change to the NCDC data set (labeled as Karl et al) is somehow bad science, poor methodology, fraud, or any number of nonsensical accusations.


Why would anyone think that???

Link
Quoting 12. Huracan94:


Blanca's looking alot better than she did last night. Probably has winds at 100 knots now.
Yep..Blanca is a violent hurricane. May it weaken considerably before affecting land.

Quoting 25. hydrus:

Thanks Doc..Odile was a terrible storm. this year could be rough for the Baha Peninsula.
Definitely, I have seen a video of Odile on youtube by icyclone...about 12 mins long, It was a very intense storm, If you want to see Odile demolishing a new hotel then you should definitely watch it...assuming you haven t:).
Quoting 44. NoobDave:


Definitely, I have seen a video of Odile on youtube by icyclone...about 12 mins long, It was a very intense storm, If you want to see Odile demolishing a new hotel then you should definitely watch it...assuming you haven t:).

Unbelievable power. I wondered how strong the gusts were. I saw no reports on this...I guessed over 150 mph..I have been through hurricane similar in strength...That storm being Charley in 2004.
I'm giving the system next week a 70% chance of developing at all.
Quoting 23. Hurricane1956:
Hello Largo!, I wonder where this low is coming from I also has been checking the Nam Models and they show a lot of rain for us here in South Florida,so far very cloudy but not a drop of rain?, and the dry air from the Gulf of Mexico is approaching fast,so I assume if this low develops it will have to come from south of Cuba?,the Nam has been very very persistent with this solution.
There is no low in south Florida. There won't be a low in south Florida. It's only showing up on the NAM. This is the predicted surface map for Saturday -



There's an almost stationary trough from Cuba down to near Honduras. As that trough drifts further east, there's a chance south Florida could pick up a little more rain tomorrow, although the chance of better coverage is inland rather than on the coast. Miami NWS is giving you a 60% chance of thunderstorms, but it might be a little higher if the trough moves a little north from Cuba. If it doesn't, the chances will be lower. After Saturday, much drier air moves in, and the chances for a sea breeze thunderstorm go down to 30% through at least Wednesday, which is just climatology for south Florida in June.

This is all explained in the Miami NWS discussion and the tropical weather discussion. Looking at any model when it's only nine hours out doesn't make a lot of sense when you have professional forecasters covering what's actually going to happen.
Quoting 41. yoboi:



Why would anyone think that???

Probably because they thought Breitbart was a legitimate source of any information, let alone science. IOW, only those who are dishonest or naive would think that.

Hey, how's that imaginary hiatus treatin' ya?

BEST 1999-present:
Allison, the only Tropical Storm to have it's name retired.


I never understood why Tropical Storm Alberto in 1994 wasn't retired. Same scenario as Allison. It stalled over central Georgia, killed 30 people and caused 1 billion in damages. At the time, I was living in Perry, GA, a small town south of Macon. In my county alone, several dams burst and multiple bridges were washed out or damaged beyond repair. For about a day, Perry was completely cut off, with no open roads into or out of the city. It took many months for some of the bridges to be replaced.
Quoting 48. Misanthroptimist:


Probably because they thought Breitbart was a legitimate source of any information, let alone science. IOW, only those who are dishonest or naive would think that.

Hey, how's that imaginary hiatus treatin' ya?

BEST 1999-present:



Quoting 47. sar2401:

There is no low in south Florida. There won't be a low in south Florida. It's only showing up on the NAM. This is the predicted surface map for Saturday -



There's an almost stationary trough from Cuba down to near Honduras. As that trough drifts further east, there's a chance south Florida could pick up a little more rain tomorrow, although the chance of better coverage is inland rather than on the coast. Miami NWS is giving you a 60% chance of thunderstorms, but it might be a little higher if the trough moves a little north from Cuba. If it doesn't, the chances will be lower. After Saturday, much drier air moves in, and the chances for a sea breeze thunderstorm go down to 30% through at least Wednesday, which is just climatology for south Florida in June.

This is all explained in the Miami NWS

discussion and the tropical weather discussion. Looking at any model when it's only nine hours out doesn't make a lot of sense when you have professional forecasters covering what's actually going to happen.
I don't really trust any of the professional forecasters a lot of time the are wrong I has been following Huricanes for 35 years and I know what I'm saying!!!, the Nam is a model that is there for a reason,it doesn't have to be right,but you have to consider it solution,futher more most of the local Mets are many time!! wrong!!!,when they said a lot of rain, no rain, when they said sunny a lot of rain.
This is a blog to discuss weather and everybody is entitled to discuss and to provide it's own opinion of what they see or don't see.
12Z CMC/GEM strongly in favor of a TS developing in the NW Caribbean just NE of Honduras moving N-NNW eventually making landfall in Mississippi/Alabama boarder coast


12Z GFS in favor of developing a system in the extreme NW Caribbean in the GOH that moves NW crossing Yucatan and landfalling on the Tx/Mx boarder

12Z NAVGEM show same as last run Epac system only difference is much much weaker

12Z EURO barely show anything
More ensemble members

12z
I am hopeful that Blanca will rev down before the current Sunday to Monday timeline for Baja and parts of the Western mainland of Mexico (and maybe some parts of the SW Conus down stream). Irrespective of what will hopefully not be a serve wind damage threat at landfall, she is packing lots of moisture so flooding rains and mudslides will be an issue as she moves inland for some folks:


Quoting 50. yoboi:






Except the RSS doesn't measure surface temperatures. YOU ARE TRYING TO COMPARE A PROJECTION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO LOWER ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS. THAT IS INCORRECT. Thanks.

Here are the updated CIMP3 models with observations:




And the CIMP5 models with observations:



Anything else?
Quoting 51. Hurricane1956:
I don't really trust any of the professional forecasters a lot of time the are wrong I has been following Huricanes for 35 years and I know what I'm saying!!!, the Nam is a model that is there for a reason,it doesn't have to be right,but you have to consider it solution,futher more most of the local Mets are many time!! wrong!!!,when they said a lot of rain, no rain, when they said sunny a lot of rain.
This is a blog to discuss weather and everybody is entitled to discuss and to provide it's own opinion of what they see or don't see.
You are welcome to discuss whatever you please, but I won't let "facts" which are clearly wrong just pass by. Three day forecasts have an accuracy rate of about 80%. Forecasters are not wrong even close to what you're saying. My point about the NAM, or any model, really, is that what is says for nine hours out should have some relevence to what the forecasters see. In this case, the low the NAM sees is not going to happen. The NAM was dead wrong about the tropical low that was supposed to happen today and is still wrong about a low which won't happen in the next nine hours. I'm just trying to provide some information based on my over 50 years of trying to figure out weather. Feel free to ignore me if you like, but trashing the NWS forecasters based on your faulty observations is not something we should encourage on a weather science blog.
I am beginning to understand why they did not include ARGO data...

Quoting 53. ncstorm:

More ensemble members

12z







extreme NW Carib/GOH system it seems to be

so
so far GFS CMC/GEM and ensembles now show a storm of some sorts in the W/NW Caribbean
again

awaiting the FIM NOAA model to come out to see if they show anything

then we wait for the other models to jump on board

then we can see where it goes from there
Melbourne hasn't seen squat! except for a few days ago. That's it.
Quoting 21. rmbjoe1954:



Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie is back to dryness. Low 20% chance of precip but hopefully it will get back to summer normalcy next week.
Hurricane BLANCA
As of 18:00 UTC Jun 05, 2015:

Location: 14.9°N 107.2°W
Maximum Winds: 70 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

If this is a cat 1 80 mph hurricane...well, yesterday was an invest and Wednesday morning was a cat 9.


Quoting 50. yoboi:


Oh boy, a graph from WUWT with no attribution, no way to know where the data came from, not even a link to the data. It does have a lot of writing on it though, which always impresses me.
Quoting 58. yoboi:


You are not even trying to be seen as credible, are you? Why are you so prone to using the images and the methods employed by those using psuedo-science, from a well known trickster's website, if you truly wish to be seen as being credible?
Quoting 58. yoboi:

I am beginning to understand why they did not include ARGO data...





More lies and falsehoods. ARGO does not measure sea surface temperature, they measure down to 2000m. For someone who is actively complaining about adjustments, it is rather ironic that A) you are arguing for the inclusion of data that requires more adjustments and B) You conveniently omit the fact that water has a higher specific heat than any other common substance on Earth which is why it is measured in energy content



Any more crap to throw at the wall?

Quoting 50. yoboi:


Like I said, it's imaginary. That's why you have to use a phony graph from a denialist site instead of real data like I used.

No matter how hard you clap, the climate dies in the end, yoboi.
Quoting 64. Naga5000:




More lies and falsehoods. ARGO does not measure sea surface temperature, they measure down to 2000m. For someone who is actively complaining about adjustments, it is rather ironic that A) you are arguing for the inclusion of data that requires more adjustments and B) You conveniently omit the fact that water has a higher specific heat than any other common substance on Earth which is why it is measured in energy content



Any more crap to throw at the wall?
Quoting 64. Naga5000:




More lies and falsehoods. ARGO does not measure sea surface temperature, they measure down to 2000m. For someone who is actively complaining about adjustments, it is rather ironic that A) you are arguing for the inclusion of data that requires more adjustments and B) You conveniently omit the fact that water has a higher specific heat than any other common substance on Earth which is why it is measured in energy content



Any more crap to throw at the wall?


Actually they measure up to 5 m and ships can measure down to 15 m....So that excuse has been clearly debunked within the scientific community....
Quoting 66. Grothar:






Hello, Grothar! Are your geckos out sunning today? Or, have they retreated to the pool house already?
Quoting 58. yoboi:
I am beginning to understand why they did not include ARGO data...

And if you did a projection in 1900 of the amount of horse droppings on the street and did a straight line projection out to 2000, based on the likely growth in population and horses, we'd be buried about six feet deep in the stuff. I know you won't understand the analogy I just wrote, but I do have an idea where on the internet any excess horse droppings are ending up today.
Quoting 64. Naga5000:




More lies and falsehoods. ARGO does not measure sea surface temperature, they measure down to 2000m. For someone who is actively complaining about adjustments, it is rather ironic that A) you are arguing for the inclusion of data that requires more adjustments and B) You conveniently omit the fact that water has a higher specific heat than any other common substance on Earth which is why it is measured in energy content



Any more crap to throw at the wall?

Not to mention that there is a clear upward trend in that data. I believe yoboi's scored yet another own goal.
Quoting 58. yoboi:

I am beginning to understand why they did not include ARGO data...




anthony watts up wit dat surrendered to the North years ago...

You have any 3's ?


Quoting 58. yoboi:

I am beginning to understand why they did not include ARGO data...

(snip)

If you actually read the papers you post about, it might limit the misinterpretations and disinformation that you keep posting.

From the Supplementary Material for Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming
hiatus
(link provided on the previous blog):

"In our current analyses we do not include Argo buoys because of the relatively small
additional spatial coverage (the floats are submerged for much of their lifetimes). As an example
for December 2014, the number of Argo floats that measured SSTs are only about 1% of those
from buoys and about 14% of those from ship observations. Note that most Argo floats shut
down at 5 m or deeper depths to protect against bio-fouling. Although little impact is expected
on the global trends by including the Argo float observed SSTs, their contribution may become
larger in some localized regions in the Southern Ocean and other places where measurements
from surface drifters, moored buoys and ships are limited. In the next version of ERSST, we will
analyze Argo floats' regional impacts, and if merited, we will include these data in future
version. In order to include the Argo float SSTs, we will need to carefully calibrate the Argo
float SSTs against ship and surface drifter/moored buoy SSTs, just as we did for the buoy-ship
SST inter-calibrations in the current version of ERSST that is used in this paper."


Quoting 67. yoboi:



Actually they measure up to 5 m and ships can measure down to 15 m....So that excuse has been clearly debunked within the scientific community....


5 meters isn't the surface. Your arguments are especially silly today, it's fun to watch you thrash about in cognitive dissonance.
RECON mission in Blanca

Quoting 23. Hurricane1956:

Hello Largo!, I wonder where this low is coming from I also has been checking the Nam Models and they show a lot of rain for us here in South Florida,so far very cloudy but not a drop of rain?, and the dry air from the Gulf of Mexico is approaching fast,so I assume if this low develops it will have to come from south of Cuba?,the Nam has been very very persistent with this solution.


That gulf short wave and attendant upper trough ended up being more detrimental than helpful, it's keeping all the deep tropical moisture away. The original model guidance was for the upper trough to stall in the east gulf, bringing an extended period of rainy weather to the state, which isn't unusual to start the rainy season. That ended up transitioning into the upper trough quickly sweeping through, with only two days of high coverage, leaving dry, stable air in it's wake and a slower recovery than models had anticipated. Synoptic scale systems tend to be detrimental to the rain season because it disrupts the developing tropical pressure pattern that leads to daily high amounts of thunderstorms.


This type of pattern generally will keep any tropical disturbances away as well as long as it lingers. This definitely isn't a traditional rainy season start like original models had anticipated. Hopefully it will be back to normal in a couple weeks.
Quoting 73. Naga5000:



5 meters isn't the surface. Your arguments are especially silly today, it's fun to watch you thrash about in cognitive dissonance.


But you will except 15 m down from a ship measurement as surface temps....I apologize for thinking 5m was closer to the surface....MY bad...
Quoting 73. Naga5000:



5 meters isn't the surface. Your arguments are especially silly today, it's fun to watch you thrash about in cognitive dissonance.


Cognitive dissonance? You may have a more apt description if you dropped the first word and just used the second word. The way you wrote still works.
Quoting 67. yoboi:


Actually they measure up to 5 m and ships can measure down to 15 m....So that excuse has been clearly debunked within the scientific community....

What is Argo?

Argo is a global array of more than 3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that measures thetemperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. This allows, for the first time, continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection. Link

That's the actual site that runs the ARGO float project. The standard ARGO float is first sunk to 1000 meters. The float is stabilized then drifts at that depth until it descends again to 2000 meters. Why in the wide, wide, world of sports would you, who considers any kind of proxy measurements the work of the NWO, ever think that ARGO data was an accurate indicator of sea surface temperature???
Quoting 78. sar2401:


What is Argo?

Argo is a global array of more than 3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that measures thetemperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. This allows, for the first time, continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection. Link

That's the actual site that runs the ARGO float project. The standard ARGO float is first sunk to 1000 meters. The float is stabilized then drifts at that depth until it descends again to 2000 meters. Why in the wide, wide, world of sports would you, who considers any kind of proxy measurements the work of the NWO, ever think that ARGO data was an accurate indicator of sea surface temperature???

Here's what that data looks like:

Quoting 68. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Hello, Grothar! Are your geckos out sunning today? Or, have they retreated to the pool house already?


They're walking around with straws in their mouth and knocking on the window for water.

By the way, the oceans are getting warmer.
Quoting 73. Naga5000:



5 meters isn't the surface. Your arguments are especially silly today, it's fun to watch you thrash about in cognitive dissonance.
I don't understand why you all keep trying with him...
Quoting 63. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You are not even trying to be seen as credible, are you? Why are you so prone to using the images and the methods employed by those using psuedo-science, from a well known trickster's website, if you truly wish to be seen as being credible?
S/He will never answer you unless s/he can find yet another graph from yet another wingnut site to put up. If s/he does put up a graph, it will have nothing to do with anything being discussed. I don't believe s/he cares at all about being credible. It's no different than the unusual people one runs into on a street corner in New York. The message isn't important. It's the making of noise that counts.
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

I don't understand why you all keep trying with him...


Because he keeps posting dishonest things, and people keep plussing his posts. As a bonus, I get to learn a bit doing research to counter his nonsense. :)
Quoting 80. Grothar:



They're walking around with straws in their mouth and knocking on the window for water.

By the way, the oceans are getting warmer.


Do what I did and drag out a water hose for them. Never mind. They still knock on the window for me to turn it on for them. I need to show them where the water valve is and that might help.

The oceans are getting warmer? Well, it is summer time, ya know. Have you tried swimming in your pool instead? Ask the geckos if the water is too warm, before you just dive in. :)
this whole storm line is slowly heading eastward..several warnings out already on them...........
Quoting 66. Grothar:





Thank you Gro for making sure that the future system (if it does evolve) stays away from Florida. That must take a lot of energy.



Last Updated: 06.05.15

Excerpt:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop during the next 96 hours a few
hundred miles south of El Salvador and Guatemala. The odds for tropical cyclone
development across this region by June 9 are too low to depict a shape on the
map. However, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
slow development.

The medium confidence for tropical cyclone development across the east Pacific
is maintained for the June 10-16 period. Recent high-resolution GFS and ECMWF
models have indicated the development of a weak area of low pressure across
the Bay of Campeche by mid-June.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
352 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

FLZ144-052030-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
352 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GROVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVELAND...MASCOTTE...HOWEY-IN-THE-HILLS...FERND ALE AND CLERMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issue Date: 354 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015
Expiration: 445 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
WESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 354 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RATLIFF TO NEAR BRYCEVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ORANGE PARK...MIDDLEBURG...MANDARIN...ORTEGA...
MAXVILLE...RIVERSIDE...SAN MARCO...CISCO GARDENS...OAKLEAF
PLANTATION...CAMP BLANDING...DOCTORS INLET...CECIL FIELD...FLEMING
ISLAND...NAS JAX...LAKESIDE...NORMANDY...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK
TERRACE...NASSAU VILLAGE-RATLIFF AND BALDWIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

Arkansas officials evacuate nearly 250 people over rising floodwaters
Floodwaters threatening to undermine levee along Red River in Garland City prompt officials to go door to door to impose evacuation order as shelter opens
Associated Press in Garland City, Arkansas, Friday 5 June 2015 18.15 BST

Death toll rises in Accra floods and petrol station fire
President announces three days of mourning after more than 150 people killed, some of them while sheltering from rain
David Smith Africa correspondent, Friday 5 June 2015 12.26 BST

UN's new weather chief seeks to improve disaster alerts
PhysOrg, 4 hours ago by Agnes Pedrero
The United Nations' new weather chief said Friday his priority was to improve early warning systems to predict increasing natural disasters sparked by climate change.
Finn Petteri Taalas, the new head of the 191-nation Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization (WMO), also said these alert systems were not up to the mark in many countries.
"It's evident that we have already seen... that weather-related disasters are growing," he told AFP. ...


Severe thunderstorms in western Europe due to low "Lothar" west of Scotland right now, sending cold air into the overheated continent:

Saved loop. Source.
Quoting 91. hydrus:




Floaters have been stuck today, last image is 1000 UTC (6 AM EDT).

GHCC Visible Loop
Well sorry no 3's only an ace load of science...

Link
some bad storms out there this afternoon....................................
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 413 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PITTMAN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JUNIPER SPRINGS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CASSIA...PAISLEY...PITTMAN...UMATILLA AND LAKE DORR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&
95A may need watching the next few days or so:









SSTs are current 30-32C below and is currently under moderate-high shear. Shear should lower as it moves northwards.
get ready scott..your next in line......................................
Afternoon All.

According to SSD, a weak 1012mb low has developed between the W tip of Cuba and E Tip of the Yucatan.

LINK

Toggle NCEP Fronts tab
Quoting 93. nrtiwlnvragn:



Floaters have been stuck today, last image is 1000 UTC (6 AM EDT).

GHCC Visible Loop
Thank you...I,m swamped.
I've been using this probability of TC genesis model for a couple of years now. It was developed by Paul Roudy at the University of Albany and it's been around about seven years, although it's not very well known. It uses a different set of criteria than the NCEP models, and includes a lot more atmospheric variables. Link

"Predictions represent the likelyhood, given the large-scale state of atmospheric waves, intraseasonal oscillations, climate variations, and the seasonal cycle that a tropical cyclone of some intensity would be located within 7.5 degrees of latitude and longitude of a given point. This system is not designed to forecast the likelyhood of genesis alone, since it may also be useful for long-range prediction of the most likely tracks of potential storms."

The model covers thirty days. Within the usual caveat that models over seven days are notoriously unreliable, I've found this model does a reasonably good job identifying the general area where a TC may form. The verification of the model over the past five years has been pretty good. I find this to be more accurate than the NCEP models, which tend to show TC formation almost anywhere on the map where a TC could logically form. Just as an example, Roundy's model never showed any hint of TC genesis last week in the Caribbean while the NCEP model showed it consistently until a couple of days ago. Anyway, I don't want to upset anyone who's tied to another model, just to show what other models are out there.

Quoting 99. ProgressivePulse:
Afternoon All.

According to SSD, a weak 1012mb low has developed between the W tip of Cuba and E Tip of the Yucatan.

LINK

Toggle NCEP Fronts tab
The NHC talked about this low (although they have it at 1011 mb) in their 2:05 discussion.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W SW TO 22N89W. TO THE EAST OF THIS
AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NEAR 27N83W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 24N85W INTO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N87W.
FURTHERMORE...TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROMOTING FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICYCLONIC GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOCUSED AROUND A
1017 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY
Quoting 99. ProgressivePulse:

Afternoon All.

According to SSD, a weak 1012mb low has developed between the W tip of Cuba and E Tip of the Yucatan.

LINK

Toggle NCEP Fronts tab


Hey, Pro!

The CMC has also been hinting at that

104. yoboi
Quoting 69. sar2401:

And if you did a projection in 1900 of the amount of horse droppings on the street and did a straight line projection out to 2000, based on the likely growth in population and horses, we'd be buried about six feet deep in the stuff. I know you won't understand the analogy I just wrote, but I do have an idea where on the internet any excess horse droppings are ending up today.


Would these figures be based upon readjusted data from already adjusted data??
Quoting 103. Grothar:



Hey, Pro!

The CMC has also been hinting at that




Afternoon Gro! How's the family? Mine is doing well, healthy blah blah.
Oh Lord. Please not the CMC again.
Quoting 93. nrtiwlnvragn:



Floaters have been stuck today, last image is 1000 UTC (6 AM EDT).

GHCC Visible Loop



Quoting 94. yoboi:
Well sorry no 3's only an ace load of science...

Link
Were you able to read the complete paper or just the abstract, which looked like something that might call into disrepute 160 years of sea surface temps? Be honest now.
im naming this one..........Casper and you know why LOL.....................
Quoting 104. yoboi:


Would these figures be based upon readjusted data from already adjusted data??
Just a straight line projection of the amount of horse crap dumped on the streets in 1900 in the western world out to 2000, with the projection based on the growth of population and horses over time. It's the kind of excercise I had to do in Stat 101. It's pretty easy for most people and not very complicated, but it seems like you missed the analogy. Hint: It's not really about horse crap.
112. yoboi
Quoting 111. sar2401:

Just a straight line projection of the amount of horse crap dumped on the streets in 1900 in the western world out to 2000, with the projection based on the growth of population and horses over time. It's the kind of excercise I had to do in Stat 101. It's pretty easy for most people and not very complicated, but it seems like you missed the analogy. Hint: It's not really about horse crap.


Kind of like I should be 10 foot tall by now analogy??
113. vis0
not sounding any alarm (then why say it?!...(tabloid habit i guess) just observing

Today from ~2-3pm as i did my food shopping (me +2 neighbors food lists) i saw over 40 black geese flying SSE & several other wild birds flying SSE NOT IN BUNCHES but one after another of each species jad its own single file (70 feet separation forward & side) while most of the birds of this area (NYc) sparrows, pigeons where flying true South, and eating lots.

Just an observation. it could be that the big bread crumb/stuffing company in Brooklyn/LI is throwing out its unused supermarket batch of passover foods???
114. yoboi
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Were you able to read the complete paper or just the abstract, which looked like something that might call into disrepute 160 years of sea surface temps? Be honest now.


I am still dissecting it and loading my arsenal...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
510 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

FLZ041-044-046-052215-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-SEMINOLE FL-
510 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE...CENTRAL
VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DELEON SPRINGS TO
ORANGE CITY TO NEAR DEBARY TO FOREST CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DELTONA...SANFORD...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...OVIEDO AND WINTER SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Were you able to read the complete paper or just the abstract, which looked like something that might call into disrepute 160 years of sea surface temps? Be honest now.

The sheer irony here is that the abstract yoboi most recently linked, is actually cited by the paper that discusses SST buoy/ship adjustments, which is the basis for a portion of the paper he's trying to discredit.

Essentially he's called a hostile witness...
Quoting 61. pablosyn:
Hurricane BLANCA
As of 18:00 UTC Jun 05, 2015:

Location: 14.9°N 107.2°W
Maximum Winds: 70 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

If this is a cat 1 80 mph hurricane...well, yesterday was an invest and Wednesday morning was a cat 9.


Recon did find a small area of 80 and 90 knot winds in the storm, so the intensity has been raised to 80 knots. Satellite presentation doesn't always correlate with intensity, as we've seen with really rotten looking storms that recon found to be hurricanes. Blanca is heading into the Baja death zone for storms, and it appears to be picking up a little speed while doing so. It has until maybe 0800z to intensify and, after that, it should start to fall apart fairly rapidly. Unless the storm puts on a real show later tonight, it looks like a cat 2 is about it for Blanca. What will be interesting is after Blanca does fall apart and starts spreading clouds and instability into the US southwest. These kinds of storms have caused some significant flooding in the deserts.
Quoting 116. LAbonbon:

The sheer irony here is that the abstract yoboi most recently linked, is actually cited by the paper that discusses SST buoy/ship adjustments, which is the basis for a portion of the paper he's trying to discredit.

Essentially he's called a hostile witness...
Except, in this case, I rather doubt the witness did more than stick his little toe through the courtroom door. :-)
Quoting 96. Envoirment:

95A may need watching the next few days or so:
....SSTs are current 30-32C below and is currently under moderate-high shear. Shear should lower as it moves northwards.

Definitively something's brewing:



Oman weather: Tropical depression forms in Arabian Sea
by Times News Service | June 05, 2015 , 11 : 59 pm GST



Monsoon arrives in Kerala, expected to hit other parts of India in 48 hours
The MeT department had initially predicted that this year the rainy season would make its fall on May 30 with "below normal" Monsoon.
By: Indo-Asian News Service | Thiruvananthapuram | Updated: June 5, 2015 9:18 pm
Southwest Monsoon hit Kerala on Friday marking the start of the rainy season, four days after its normal onset date.
"Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala, today, June 5, 2015 as against the normal date of June 1," the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
"It has further advanced into entire south Arabian Sea, some more parts of Central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep area and Kerela, some parts of coastal and southern interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, remanining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of central and northeast Bay of Bengal," it said. ...
Quoting 114. yoboi:


I am still dissecting it and loading my arsenal...
I see. Can you copy and paste the first paragraph on page three then?
We should just do away with the CMC & GEM models. 
Quoting 109. LargoFl:

im naming this one..........Casper and you know why LOL.....................

Afternoon all. Today is a public holiday in The Bahamas, our Labour Day. While this is usually a popular beach day, the weather here has not been overly conducive to a day at the seashore. It's been overcast and raining off and on here since mid-morning, though showers have only been locally heavy in spots. This is definitely a tropical air mass - the air has become increasingly hot and heavy as the afternoon has progressed. Perhaps nothing will come of the parent trough, but we certainly are likely to pick up an inch or so of rain over the next 1 - 3 days.



Meanwhile it looks like the Caymans are getting a good solid tropical downpour at some point....

Here's what all the fuss is about.
The very minor reanalysis of mainly pre-WW2 sea surface temperature data - just such as was called for in the paper cited in post #92 - is shown in 'A'.
This made the famous post-1997-98 'pause' evaporate. That's how tiny and spurious the supposed signal was.
In response, the denialospheric bogon flux has been prodigious. The Cato Institute put out a 'rebuttal' even before the paper was published. WTFUWT is up to seven rebuttal articles and counting - with claims of 'fraud' and violation of thermodynamics (not kidding). Paid shills are working overtime.
OTOH, if the jack-booted white-coats who are driving the biggest conspiracy the world has ever known wanted to exaggerate the warming trend, then they'd use the *unadjusted* data (thin blue line in 'B') - which indicate greater and faster warming over the time period in question.
from Karl et al. (2015):
Quoting 112. yoboi:


Kind of like I should be 10 foot tall by now analogy??
Not unless someone on your mother's side was in the Goliath line of descent. But that wasn't the analogy. Further hint: What if tomorrow isn't the same as today??
Quoting 121. TCweatherman:
We should just do away with the CMC & GEM models.

The CMC is the GEM. Nevertheless, the CMC can be a useful model at times. If it sniffs something out and the other major models join in, there's a good chance that something is going to develop. If the other major models don't see what the CMC sees over time, there's an equally good chance the CMC has gone a little haywire again. It's never about one model - it's about what all the models say compared with each other.
Quoting 104. yoboi:



Would these figures be based upon readjusted data from already adjusted data??


Do you even know what this means or why the data is adjusted?
Everyone have a safe weather weekend. Will check back over the weekend on how Blanca is doing.
Quoting 113. vis0:
not sounding any alarm (then why say it?!...(tabloid habit i guess) just observing

Today from ~2-3pm as i did my food shopping (me +2 neighbors food lists) i saw over 40 black geese flying SSE & several other wild birds flying SSE NOT IN BUNCHES but one after another of each species jad its own single file (70 feet separation forward & side) while most of the birds of this area (NYc) sparrows, pigeons where flying true South, and eating lots.

Just an observation. it could be that the big bread crumb/stuffing company in Brooklyn/LI is throwing out its unused supermarket batch of passover foods???
A big day at the landfill might also be a possible answer. Just let me know if you see any black swans flying by in near future. After my day in the market today, it might be a sign of something. :-0
129. yoboi
Quoting 126. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you even know what this means or why the data is adjusted?


I think so....

Link
Quoting 118. sar2401:

Except, in this case, I rather doubt the witness did more than stick his little toe through the courtroom door. :-)


And his foot in his mouth.
Quoting 121. TCweatherman:

We should just do away with the CMC & GEM models. 




I don't know what Canada has against South Carolina, but it was as if the CMC just wanted to wipe the palmetto state off the map last season every other week.
Quoting 131. win1gamegiantsplease:



I don't know what Canada has against South Carolina, but it was as if the CMC just wanted to wipe the palmetto state off the map last season every other week.
The CMC has also gave us some scares too.
133. Ed22
Good evening and good night everyone, that tropical disturbance over the North Western Caribbean is very robust this evening on Satellite imagery. Very high cloud tops indicating that the wind-shear have decreased and continue to decrease over the System, however this Tropical Disturbance could gain organization in the next 12 to 36 hours. An area of Low pressure could develop in the next 12 to 24 hours over the North-Western Caribbean Sea, however I give this Tropical System a 20% chance for development to happen in the next 24 to 48 hours and 50% over the next five days... What you say weather enthusiasts???
I know but I don't know why I said that haha sorry. Yea the models don't want to come to a consensus about this system, some have shown it in Mexico others have had it hammering me. Just a wait & see situation I guess.
Quoting 125. sar2401:

The CMC is the GEM. Nevertheless, the CMC can be a useful model at times. If it sniffs something out and the other major models join in, there's a good chance that something is going to develop. If the other major models don't see what the CMC sees over time, there's an equally good chance the CMC has gone a little haywire again. It's never about one model - it's about what all the models say compared with each other.
True, hahaha!
Quoting 131. win1gamegiantsplease:



I don't know what Canada has against South Carolina, but it was as if the CMC just wanted to wipe the palmetto state off the map last season every other week.
Quoting 129. yoboi:



I think so....

Link
So you're asked if you understand a basic part of science--and you respond by posting the content of a stolen six-year-old email between climate scientists, a letter that shows the scientific process at work, but which you clearly posted thinking that bringing here something from the oft-debunked and completely made-up "climategate" 'scandal" would give you a "win" of some time?

Seriously?

Give it up, would you? Please? You're outnumbered. More than that, you're outgunned. You're out-truthed. You're out-scienced. You're out-facted, out-evidenced, out-supported. You're out-everythinged. You may very well picture yourself as the lone, steely-eyed, thrust-jawed stalwart standing up to scientific orthodoxy--but to all others, you're nothing more than a disruptive child babbling away at the back of the classroom and making occasional farting noises. You're getting attention, true, but not the type any sane person would want. So, again: stop. Pretty please with sprinkles on top.
>

Meanwhile it looks like the Caymans are getting a good solid tropical downpour at some point....




Evening Baha. Some solid rain this afternoon & grey skies at the moment

Quoting 133. Ed22:

Good evening and good night everyone, that tropical disturbance over the North Western Caribbean is very robust this evening on Satellite imagery. Very high cloud tops indicating that the wind-shear have decreased and continue to decrease over the System, however this Tropical Disturbance could gain organization in the next 12 to 36 hours. An area of Low pressure could develop in the next 12 to 24 hours over the North-Western Caribbean Sea, however I give this Tropical System a 20% chance for development to happen in the next 24 to 48 hours and 50% over the next five days... What you say weather enthusiasts???
I think that it won't develop due to the wind shear increasing in the future and plus based model output, it doesn't have support like it did a week ago.
Good evening, I see the high, cold cloud tops but where is the circulation centered, or is there one?
Quoting 133. Ed22:

Good evening and good night everyone, that tropical disturbance over the North Western Caribbean is very robust this evening on Satellite imagery. Very high cloud tops indicating that the wind-shear have decreased and continue to decrease over the System, however this Tropical Disturbance could gain organization in the next 12 to 36 hours. An area of Low pressure could develop in the next 12 to 24 hours over the North-Western Caribbean Sea, however I give this Tropical System a 20% chance for development to happen in the next 24 to 48 hours and 50% over the next five days... What you say weather enthusiasts???
Quoting 113. vis0:

not sounding any alarm (then why say it?!...(tabloid habit i guess) just observing

Today from ~2-3pm as i did my food shopping (me +2 neighbors food lists) i saw over 40 black geese flying SSE & several other wild birds flying SSE NOT IN BUNCHES but one after another of each species jad its own single file (70 feet separation forward & side) while most of the birds of this area (NYc) sparrows, pigeons where flying true South, and eating lots.

Just an observation. it could be that the big bread crumb/stuffing company in Brooklyn/LI is throwing out its unused supermarket batch of passover foods???
I am getting ready to flip the switch keep an eye out for the ostriches
Quoting 136. Neapolitan:

So you're asked if you understand a basic part of science--and you respond by posting the content of a stolen six-year-old email between climate scientists, a letter that shows the scientific process at work, but which you clearly posted thinking that bringing here something from the oft-debunked and completely made-up "climategate" 'scandal" would give you a "win" of some time?

Seriously?

Give it up, would you? Please? You're outnumbered. More than that, you're outgunned. You're out-truthed. You're out-scienced. You're out-facted, out-evidenced, out-supported. You're out-everythinged. You may very well picture yourself as the lone, steely-eyed, thrust-jawed stalwart standing up to scientific orthodoxy--but to all others, you're nothing more than a disruptive child babbling away at the back of the classroom and making occasional farting noises. You're getting attention, true, but not the type any sane person would want. So, again: stop. Pretty please with sprinkles on top.


He's definitely outwitted.
Portrait in red and purple. Van Gogh on top and Matisse below.






143. yoboi
Quoting 136. Neapolitan:

So you're asked if you understand a basic part of science--and you respond by posting the content of a stolen six-year-old email between climate scientists, a letter that shows the scientific process at work, but which you clearly posted thinking that bringing here something from the oft-debunked and completely made-up "climategate" 'scandal" would give you a "win" of some time?

Seriously?

Give it up, would you? Please? You're outnumbered. More than that, you're outgunned. You're out-truthed. You're out-scienced. You're out-facted, out-evidenced, out-supported. You're out-everythinged. You may very well picture yourself as the lone, steely-eyed, thrust-jawed stalwart standing up to scientific orthodoxy--but to all others, you're nothing more than a disruptive child babbling away at the back of the classroom and making occasional farting noises. You're getting attention, true, but not the type any sane person would want. So, again: stop. Pretty please with sprinkles on top.


All I did was show the scientific process at work...Nowhere in that post did I make any assumption....Now you come barreling in making all kind of assumptions that I never made...If you would like to discuss the science in a rational way the door is always open....But please the unwarranted assumptions keep at the door...Thank you...
Quoting 49. freedomics:
Allison, the only Tropical Storm to have it's name retired.


I never understood why Tropical Storm Alberto in 1994 wasn't retired. Same scenario as Allison. It stalled over central Georgia, killed 30 people and caused 1 billion in damages. At the time, I was living in Perry, GA, a small town south of Macon. In my county alone, several dams burst and multiple bridges were washed out or damaged beyond repair. For about a day, Perry was completely cut off, with no open roads into or out of the city. It took many months for some of the bridges to be replaced.
Sorry, just reading back now, but I've often wondered the same thing. There was a lot of damage in SE Alabama as well. This was the second most costly storm in this part of the state after Ivan, even though it was "only" as tropical storm. I suspect the reason why it wasn't retired is that it had its greatest effects in just one state - Georgia. It's not a state usually thought of as a hotbed of tropical storm damage and deaths. If I'm not mistaken, the 31 killed in Georgia is the greatest number killed in that state from any tropical cyclone. I have the feeling that, if Alberto had struck Florida with the same type of damage and death as what occurred in Georgia, it would be retired. It just seems like anything that's confined to just Georgia or Alabama is never going to have the national media impact that the same type of storm would if it happened to Florida. Media impact and political pressure play a role in name retirement, plus TS names don't retired often.
RAPID ACCELERATION
02E/MH/B/C3
Quoting 142. Grothar:

Portrait in red and purple. Van Gogh on top and Matisse below.









If you squint it looks like a spaceship.
Quoting 141. JohnLonergan:


He's definitely outwitted.
Outwitted by at least half...
So that line of storms that just rolled through Central Florida dropped 1.44 inches on me in the span of 40 minutes, most of it coming in the first 20 minutes. Not bad, pool's full, lawn's watered, my work here is done.
Thank you for the update Dr Masters. Rain for the Southwest is good for all concerned. Earlier GFS models had forecast that the moisture associated with Andres and Blanca had a chance to get Soo Cal some precip but Andres didn't do his part and missed the trof and Blanca is still wait and see but probably AZ and NM will get some decent rains a month ahead of the monsoon season. I always think Sept-Oct is the best time frame for a tropical systems moisture field to get into Soo Cal, giving us some nice rains. With all these trofs coming into Soo Cal week after week, maybe we could draw in some moisture in earlier than that..........Im waiting and watching





Temporary lull for now
just leave the guy alone
even though it may be
the wrong opinion
he is entitled too that
after all it is just his opinion
nothing more nothing less
Quoting 151. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just leave the guy alone
even though it may be
the worng opinion
he is entitled too that
after all it is just his opinion
nothing more nothing less


He deliberately posts misinformation and lies, he is willfully malicious, especially given his posting history. Respectfully, he is entitled to his opinion, but not to his facts, and deserves the ridicule he receives. He refuses to learn or even make an effort, it's quite insulting.
Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

RAPID ACCELERATION
02E/MH/B/C3



Looking mo healthy fo sure!
Quoting 153. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Looking mo healthy fo sure!
not for long when it unravels it will be very fast
Quoting 152. Naga5000:



He deliberately posts misinformation and lies, he is willfully malicious, especially given his posting history. Respectfully, he is entitled to his opinion, but not to his facts, and deserves the ridicule he receives. He refuses to learn or even make an effort, it's quite insulting.
but I know better and I am sure you do too

Quoting 133. Ed22:
Good evening and good night everyone, that tropical disturbance over the North Western Caribbean is very robust this evening on Satellite imagery. Very high cloud tops indicating that the wind-shear have decreased and continue to decrease over the System, however this Tropical Disturbance could gain organization in the next 12 to 36 hours. An area of Low pressure could develop in the next 12 to 24 hours over the North-Western Caribbean Sea, however I give this Tropical System a 20% chance for development to happen in the next 24 to 48 hours and 50% over the next five days... What you say weather enthusiasts???
An area of low pressure has already developed in the NW Caribbean. It's discussed by the NHC in their 2:05 update and it's on the current surface map. It's on a stalled trough that's slowly creeping eastward. There have been two other lows develop and dissipate in the same area in the last several days. This one will dissipate also. Wind shear in the the area of the low/trough is currently between 40 and 50 knots. It's predicted to decrease by 10 knots at most, which still leaves a prohibitivly high shear in the area. What's happening is somewhat like a tropical wave, with some heavy rain and thunderstorms, but no real mechanism for any low that forms to deepen. The NWS does not believe any new tropical cyclones will form in the Caribbean in the next five days. I agree.
159. yoboi
Quoting 152. Naga5000:



He deliberately posts misinformation and lies, he is willfully malicious, especially given his posting history. Respectfully, he is entitled to his opinion, but not to his facts, and deserves the ridicule he receives. He refuses to learn or even make an effort, it's quite insulting.


I think a better way to look at it...I am part of the 3% I am confused to when science became a popularity contest...The majority was against Einstein Franklin Davis etc.... Yes when science resorts to being popular and not allowed to go against the consensus we all as a society lose...
Quoting 151. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just leave the guy alone
even though it may be
the wrong opinion
he is entitled too that
after all it is just his opinion
nothing more nothing less
It's not his opinion that's the issue. It's posting absolute falsehoods and using sites that traffic in the same falsehoods to back him up. If his opinion was just that the color red is better than blue, he'd certainly be entitled to it. When he posts that over 100 years of science is not only wrong, but the result of some kind of conspiracy to have us taken over by the UN and the NWO, it's not an opinion, it's a distortion of the facts. It's no different than you posting it's raining at your place and having someone post that not only is it not raining but you're part of the reptillian conspiracy that controls rain. It's quite embarassing for a site which has the first post of every blog devoted weather and climate science.
Quoting 159. yoboi:


I think a better way to look at it...I am part of the 3% I am confused to when science became a popularity contest...The majority was against Einstein Franklin Davis etc.... Yes when science resorts to being popular and not allowed to go against the consensus we all as a society lose...
Good. Show us your science then. I've been waiting since August 25, 2010.
Quoting 142. Grothar:
Portrait in red and purple. Van Gogh on top and Matisse below.

We are Baroque

Because we have no Monet.
Quoting 159. yoboi:



I think a better way to look at it...I am part of the 3% I am confused to when science became a popularity contest...The majority was against Einstein Franklin Davis etc.... Yes when science resorts to being popular and not allowed to go against the consensus we all as a society lose...


No one has prevented anyone from going against prevailing thought. Non experts on blogs making stuff up is not how science is done. There are ways to go about science, lying, distorting, misinforming, accusations of fraud, conspiracy ideation, and creating pseudo science are not those ways. You and the conspiracy blogs are no Einsteins or Franklins, not even close. They challenged the mainstream through the scientific process, providing legitimate evidence to support their positions, something no one of the contrarian side has ever managed to do.

The very reason science and how we created knowledge is so fantastic is the very process challenges and builds off of other science, your heroes and your sources of information are outside that realm totally. You should be ashamed.
Quoting 134. TCweatherman:
I know but I don't know why I said that haha sorry. Yea the models don't want to come to a consensus about this system, some have shown it in Mexico others have had it hammering me. Just a wait & see situation I guess.
We're back to the ten day out issue again. Remember last week at this time, when the GFS had that low that was going to be hammering south Florida and/or the Bahamas this weekend? Remember how the CMC was showing a hurricane off the coast of South Carolina? How did that work out? What I'm saying is putting any kind of faith in any model ten or more days out is a mistake. They are just never right, even if you want to believe they might be right. Even if you just remain an amateur tropical weather forecaster as you go through school, this is the first lesson you should learn.

Quoting 159. 

Nah, the other 3% were scientists.

Here ya go!

Quoting 162. redwagon:
Quoting 142. Grothar:
Portrait in red and purple. Van Gogh on top and Matisse below.

We are Baroque

Because we have no Monet.
LOL. I like that little sonnet. :-)
I think he does it just for badness too get a rise out of you all
Quoting 152. Naga5000:



He deliberately posts misinformation and lies, he is willfully malicious, especially given his posting history. Respectfully, he is entitled to his opinion, but not to his facts, and deserves the ridicule he receives. He refuses to learn or even make an effort, it's quite insulting.

Yeah, but have you noticed the words "hiatus" or "pause" haven't shown up in three pages now? lol

He's just throwing sand in retaliation for the death of a false but well-loved meme.
according to sfc obs

and best guess would put sfc low in the NW Carib near 20N 85W/19N 84W somewhere near there

Blanca now down to 90mph Hurricane via recon I say steady weakening from now on

the CMC/GEM forecast for this supposed NW Carib storm I would not throw off the table
CMC/GEM sometime win out on storm than other models so I would not discount

the GFS models still latching on the Epac-NW Carib/GOH and BOC system ok cool


by the way very stormy here on NW side of Grand Cayman
170. yoboi
Quoting 163. Naga5000:



No one has prevented anyone from going against prevailing thought. Non experts on blogs making stuff up is not how science is done. There are ways to go about science, lying, distorting, misinforming, accusations of fraud, conspiracy ideation, and creating pseudo science are not those ways. You and the conspiracy blogs are no Einsteins or Franklins, not even close. They challenged the mainstream through the scientific process, providing legitimate evidence to support their positions, something no one of the contrarian side has ever managed to do.

The very reason science and how we created knowledge is so fantastic is the very process challenges and builds off of other science, your heroes and your sources of information are outside that realm totally. You should be ashamed.


I disagree I have seen many people over the years to speak against the consensus here only to get ganged attacked and to never here from them again....I must say it takes a very strong person to stand up against such tactics...I try my best to have cordial discussions here and at times I have crossed the line and have received a ban for doing so...I must say that I am very strong willed and will not be bullied into thinking a certain way...Case in point when I first started discussing climate change I said no way humans are the cause...Now after many hrs of debating and researching he science I changed my mind and now think humans can impact the climate by 10 %....With rational discussions and no gang tactics much can be accomplished in this world we live in...Anyways thanks for reading....
Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think he does it just for badness too get a rise out of you all
So you're good with the idea of someone being able to post lies, misinformation, disinformation, conspiracy theories, and just things that no responsible scientists believes? And, when that happens, he should never be challenged? Just allow his comments to stand in splendid isolation so other people coming to Dr. Masters's blog will think that this must be good information no because no one says it isn't? I can't imagine that's what you really believe.
Quoting 159. yoboi:



I think a better way to look at it...I am part of the 3% I am confused to when science became a popularity contest...The majority was against Einstein Franklin Davis etc.... Yes when science resorts to being popular and not allowed to go against the consensus we all as a society lose...
From Dr. Rood's comments:
Quoting 54. Agres:

Science by vote does not exist. Mother Nature has the one and only vote.

Scientists do not have votes, they only have opinions about how Mother Nature will vote.

The thing is that some know her better than others, and it is worth listening to, or reading those who know her best.

There are reasons why we read Newton, Einstein, Feynman, Hansen, and Michael Mann.
Although humans are in effect telling Mother Nature how they think she should vote and trying to otherwise influence the vote, "Nature bats last" and perhaps seemingly vengefully so.
Quoting 171. sar2401:

So you're good with the idea of someone being able to post lies, misinformation, disinformation, conspiracy theories, and just things that no responsible scientists believes? And, when that happens, he should never be challenged? Just allow his comments to stand in splendid isolation so other people coming to Dr. Masters's blog will think that this must be good information no because no one says it isn't? I can't imagine that's what your really believe.


no that's not what I am saying

what I am saying is
I know the difference from what he is showing and what is really happening
and I cannot make him see what I see or know already so why would I even try
Quoting 170. yoboi:


Blah, blah, blah. Anyone attempting to inject baseless, denialist rubbish into a discussion of the science can expect to be corrected. I'm sorry the "hiatus" or "pause" turned out to be yet another false meme of the denialosphere...but what else did you expect? Have the denialists been right about anything of substance in, say, the last five years? If so, post it. If not, why do you waste your time with them?
Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think he does it just for badness too get a rise out of you all


That's called trolling, that is against the rules, is it not?

"troll
trōl/Submit
verb
gerund or present participle: trolling
1.
informal
make a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.
"if people are obviously trolling then I'll delete your posts and do my best to ban you"
you folks around the Melbourne area..all this is sinking southward towards you........
Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



no that's not what I am saying

what I am saying is
I know the difference from what he is showing and what is really happening
and I cannot make him see what I see or know already so why would I even try


If I may interject, he isn't the issue; the nonsense he spouts that the casual reader might believe is the issue. That nonsense should be corrected in a forum such as this.
I agree with you but Ana and Arthur don't. The majority of the time they aren't but on rare occasions they are. Maybe this time they are.
Quoting 164. sar2401:

We're back to the ten day out issue again. Remember last week at this time, when the GFS had that low that was going to be hammering south Florida and/or the Bahamas this weekend? Remember how the CMC was showing a hurricane off the coast of South Carolina? How did that work out? What I'm saying is putting any kind of faith in any model ten or more days out is a mistake. They are just never right, even if you want to believe they might be right. Even if you just remain an amateur tropical weather forecaster as you go through school, this is the first lesson you should learn.
Quoting 157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I guess we will have to keep an eye on that in the days to come huh keeper
Quoting 170. yoboi:



I disagree I have seen many people over the years to speak against the consensus here only to get ganged attacked and to never here from them again....I must say it takes a very strong person to stand up against such tactics...I try my best to have cordial discussions here and at times I have crossed the line and have received a ban for doing so...I must say that I am very strong willed and will not be bullied into thinking a certain way...Case in point when I first started discussing climate change I said no way humans are the cause...Now after many hrs of debating and researching he science I changed my mind and now think humans can impact the climate by 10 %....With rational discussions and no gang tactics much can be accomplished in this world we live in...Anyways thanks for reading....


Your disagreement is noted, what is also noted, is you have never once posted any evidence demonstrating your "10%" meme, and you have posted many things that contradict it.

Speaking against the consensus means nothing by itself, you need evidence to support it, and by every measure, there is no discernible competing hypothesis in the scientific discourse to explain the current observations. Plain and simple, any blathering otherwise requires an extreme amount of scientific proof that has yet to be provided.
Quoting 179. LargoFl:

I guess we will have to keep an eye on that in the days to come huh keeper
NHC say it dissipating -DSIPT
only 6-7 days out............................................... .....................
Quoting 181. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NHC say it dissipating -DSIPT
I hope so, we don't need this lol
make a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.
"

IMO Yoboi isnt guilty of this because he seems to believe what hes saying is the truth
But it's the GEM lol.
Quoting 182. LargoFl:

only 6-7 days out............................................... .....................
keeper I think all..want that Low to die off quickly before................................
Quoting 185. TCweatherman:

But it's the GEM lol.
yeah I know,i named it 'Casper' for a reason lol
Blanca looks a lot better to the southeast than to the northwest. Cooler water ahead? This may be her second peak.
AND IMO the real troll around here is the CMC Model
Quoting 177. Misanthroptimist:


If I may interject, he isn't the issue; the nonsense he spouts that the casual reader might believe is the issue. That nonsense should be corrected in a forum such as this.


its corrected normally when yoboi posts inaccurate info
someone will come along and post the correct info

most here know the real info from the fake or inaccurate stuff
the back and forth is not necessary

make the point move along
191. JRRP
Quoting 189. K8eCane:

AND IMO the real troll around here is the CMC Model
models are always telling lies with some truth sometimes

lol
Quoting 184. K8eCane:

make a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.
"

IMO Yoboi isnt guilty of this because he seems to believe what hes saying is the truth


I'm not that naive, especially considering his previous posting history in context. Besides that, his posts are contradictory to each other, that kind of prohibits believing in some grand "truth" unless "truth" really means anything that goes against prevailing scientific theory, no matter if it goes against itself.
Quoting 194. Naga5000:



I'm not that naive, especially considering his previous posting history in context. Besides that, his posts are contradictory to each other, that kind of prohibits believing in some grand "truth" unless "truth" really means anything that goes against prevailing scientific theory, no matter if it goes against itself.


When his own posts contradict each other, perhaps it could mean that he has a mental illness of some sort. I would think it would be easier to just correct any misinformation and let it be. But thats just my opinion




I dont even have any business in this conversation except for the fact that I try to "treat" everything because of being a retired nurse. Im stepping out of it.
Quoting 162. redwagon:

Quoting 142. Grothar:
Portrait in red and purple. Van Gogh on top and Matisse below.

We are Baroque

Because we have no Monet.


the color in the top one is bright and splashy like a Gauguin


This is the worst I have seen the weather in last few days , strong winds, heavy white out rains, half of tree on the boundary of my neighbors just fell down thankfully it fell opposite of my property or it would have hit my house looks to be long night!
Quoting 184. K8eCane:

make a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.
"

IMO Yoboi isnt guilty of this because he seems to believe what hes saying is the truth


I disagree. He is still guilty of posting provocative online postings. It's not like he's a noob that aimless walked in here just a few minutes ago. He's been at this for a LONG time, he knows what he's doing even after he's been proven wrong.

Besides, even if he believes the stuff he's spouting, that doesn't give him the right to say it.

Beyond that, he's breaking another rule, and that's: "No monomania."

Monomania: exaggerated or obsessive enthusiasm for or preoccupation with one thing.

Yoboi is absolutely obsessed with attempting to catch Nea, Naga, or anyone of us in a lie in an effort to disprove AGW. By far, the vast majority of his posts are focused on that topic. This is not conducive for healthy blog discussions on either Masters' or Rood's blogs.

For what it's worth, I'm a nice enough guy to let him stick around WU on his own blog. But to have him consistently attack two blog authors and their readers with lies? Nah...I wouldn't let that slide.
The GFS continues to show an area of low pressure developing in the Bay of Campeche in the extended range as low-level energy from the East Pacific crosses into the region. These sort of setups have occurred many times in the past, and several times those setups have led to the formation of tropical cyclones, so it's something that bares watching for sure.

Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think he does it just for badness too get a rise out of you all


then why is he allowed to continue.. if his only purpose is to poke and prod folks with the SAME bullcrap lies over and over and over and over, why isn't he sent packing?



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE


SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARKS HAVE AGGREGATED INTO A
COMPLEX THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS THEN LEVEL OFF AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
Typical Pre-tropical storm swells:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01728688?t erm=kidney%2C+stem+cell&rank=183

Or so it looks to my eyes. This cam faces approximately ESE. Notice A) How far apart the swells are and B) How even they are .... well over a hundred yards and the wave crashes at the same time. THis will be visibile for just another hour or two before dark, and will be interesting to view in the morning.

I saw this effect with Opal (95?) on the gulf coast of Florida.... widely spaced, very evenly placed swells, just before the thing was known to be blowing up into a monster. (I am NOT suggesting that this storm will do that, but the implication seems to be that the lower air pressure of this storm is able to alter the surface wave pattern similar to what Opal seemed to do).
Quoting 201. indianrivguy:



then why is he allowed to continue.. if his only purpose is to poke and prod folks with the SAME bullcrap lies over and over and over and over, why isn't he sent packing?
I commented on this yesterday. As more factual data is available and posted here, it should be interesting to see the responses...Greetings IRG..:)
How would swells form before there was a storm, MontanaZephyr?
Does Mexico issue evacuation orders? I am drawing a Blanca here on this subject.

How strong could Blana get? Anyone here willing to take a stab at it?

For Gro:

Sign on Music School Door:

The Doorbell is Baroquen, please wiggle Handel.

Question: If I wiggle Handel will it wiggle Bach?
Does anyone have a good image (or preferably gif animation) of 95A? this is the best I've found.
208. Ed22
Yeah I get it now CMC model could be right, however the other models could come board later. Wind-Shear is about 40 to 50 knots now but that could change in the short- term, If wind- shear is about 40 to 50 knots it would have taken a told on the tropical system right now... Let see what happens tomorrow...
Quoting 191. JRRP:


La nina!
Quoting 159. yoboi:



I think a better way to look at it...I am part of the 3% I am confused to when science became a popularity contest...The majority was against Einstein Franklin Davis etc.... Yes when science resorts to being popular and not allowed to go against the consensus we all as a society lose...


Einstein followed scientific principles. And because he based his work on that of other scientists he built a rock solid case for his theories, including coming up with repeatable experiments that could replicate his results so that other scientists could also test his theories.

Deniers, by comparison, are basically a bunch idiots claiming someone is a witch (usually Al Gore) and trying to burn them at the stake in the same vein as Monty Python and the Holy Grail. They don't follow scientific principles, they come up with completely unsubstantiated garbage that doesn't even adhere to known physics and chemistry, provide no models or repeatable experiments, they claim conspiracies and cover ups, and their best efforts consist of bad math, even worse statistics, and outright lies and manipulation.

Einstein, Hawking, Newton, etc. were not revolutionaries. They were evolutionaries. They built upon the works that came before them. Deniers build upon nothing but willful ignorance and dishonesty. That's a considerable difference.
Quoting 207. winter123:

Does anyone have a good image (or preferably gif animation) of 95A? this is the best I've found.




Link
212. yoboi


Yes I think the SH ice will continue to rise...
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

COC063-125-060015-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150606T0015Z/
YUMA CO-KIT CARSON CO-
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN YUMA AND NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES...


AT 557 PM MDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COPE...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF STRATTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG ROTATION WITH
SPOTTERS CONFIRMING A LARGE TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. AT 545 PM MDT
A STORM CHASER REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF KIRK.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOES AND KIRK.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 209 AND 210.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 10261 3961 10223 3946 10252 3948 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 204DEG 18KT 3957 10258

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

BULLER
Ninja'd by nrt.
215. 882MB
Quoting 207. winter123:

Does anyone have a good image (or preferably gif animation) of 95A? this is the best I've found.



I got these wider images.



Nice Weather you got Dakster..... Nice here too (74.2F)
Quoting 212. yoboi:



Yes I think the SH ice will continue to rise...

That, too, may well be a figment of your imagination:

Quoting 201. indianrivguy:



then why is he allowed to continue.. if his only purpose is to poke and prod folks with the SAME bullcrap lies over and over and over and over, why isn't he sent packing?


It is a great way to show anyone who stops by how silly and pathetic the denier crap is. Think about it. If any casual reader was on the fence on AGW they would clearly see that the denier nonsense always ends up in an unlikely grand conspiracy or the denial of the properties of molecules. Just the other day one of the "history channel" conspiracies appeared on the blog and was given sincere(?) consideration by some of the other members of the denial crowd.

Why not let it continue? It is very entertaining at times and maybe someone will learn something. It is a great example of how the so-called debate doesn't exist in minds of those not wearing aluminum foil hats. The whole denier thing never works without the grand conspiracy. It is comical.
Quoting 178. TCweatherman:
I agree with you but Ana and Arthur don't. The majority of the time they aren't but on rare occasions they are. Maybe this time they are.
And that's exactly why people keep playing slot machines. The hope of the big jackpot obscures all the losses. :-)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS / E-CNTRL CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260...

VALID 052359Z - 060100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 260 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR A STRONG TORNADO IS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY
. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE MODE.

DISCUSSION...GLD VAD DATA HAS SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE
SIZE OF THE HODOGRAPH OVER THE PAST HOUR AS 0-3 KM SRH HAS
STRENGTHENED FROM 200 M2/S2 TO NEAR 400 M2/S2 WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR
THE KIT CARSON COUNTY TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOTION. THE BLOSSOMING OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR ITR WILL PROBABLY COMPLICATE AND POSSIBLY BE
DETRIMENTAL IN THE LONG-TERM FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THE
ESTABLISHED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS INDICATIVE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SIZABLE SRH WILL
LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.


..SMITH.. 06/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39470301 39780239 39720106 39340044 38870058 38870219
39470301
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS continues to show an area of low pressure developing in the Bay of Campeche in the extended range as low-level energy from the East Pacific crosses into the region. These sort of setups have occurred many times in the past, and several times those setups have led to the formation of tropical cyclones, so it's something that bares watching for sure.




What part of Texas does the GFS take your low pressure system?
(if Texas at all, that is)
Latest Rap run..interesting..starting to show some Lows around South Florida this weekend..



Quoting 201. indianrivguy:



then why is he allowed to continue.. if his only purpose is to poke and prod folks with the SAME bullcrap lies over and over and over and over, why isn't he sent packing?
there is no rule that says yoboi can't lie and besides you would miss him if he were banned
LOL..some of the bloggers here if Yoboi stopped posting..there would be no one to argue with..



Quoting 219. sar2401:

And that's exactly why people keep playing slot machines. The hope of the big jackpot obscures all the losses. :-)

You mean casinos aren't charities?!?!
Quoting 216. PedleyCA:

Nice Weather you got Dakster..... Nice here too (74.2F)


was nice here earlier 74 humidex made it feel like 80
then the thunder come and with it 0.99 inches of rain
I know but the pws just would not roll over one more lol

great way to start june its wet
Later..

Quoting 222. pureet1948:



What part of Texas does the GFS take your low pressure system?
(if Texas at all, that is)

Moves ashore the northern Mexico coastline.

Quoting 217. Misanthroptimist:


That, too, may well be a figment of your imagination:




Curiously, 1991 - the year of the satellite sensor transition - also saw the publication of Manabe et al. 'Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part II: Seasonal Response'  where model results were reported showing an increase in Antarctic sea ice under increasing CO2.
This was predicted 25yr ago. Those who claim that the minor increase in Antarctic sea ice represents a failure of understanding of climate, are just making stuff up. As usual.
231. yoboi
Let's take a look at global ice data...I know I know some have said we can only use global data with temps and using global data with ice rain hurricanes precipitation tornadoes snow drought etc...Is against some rule and revert to regional data to make a point...Would just like to share global ice nothing more nothing less...

Blanca is back to Cat 2:

EP, 02, 2015060600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1080W, 85, 971, HU

Super Rapid Scan is still going on. CIMSS added a link to a just started field study, PECAN, Plains Elevated Convection at Night. All sorts of links to data, including mobile radar.
re post 210 Xyrus2000: Well said. It seems the denialist starting point is "I don't believe it, I don't want to believe it, therefore it isn't true".
Quoting 231. yoboi:

Let's take a look at global ice data...

How much sun do you suppose is hitting Antarctic sea ice at this point?
Quoting 228. ncstorm:

Later..



Please explain.
Quoting 230. no1der:




Curiously, 1991 - the year of the satellite sensor transition - also saw the publication of Manabe et al. 'Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part II: Seasonal Response'  where model results were reported showing an increase in Antarctic sea ice under increasing CO2.
This was predicted 25yr ago. Those who claim that the minor increase in Antarctic sea ice represents a failure of understanding of climate, are just making stuff up. As usual.

Yep. Assuming Eisenman is correct, it appears to my eye that that would account ~40% of the current SH sea ice anomaly.

Like many things in AGW/CC, we know what "here" looks like and we know what "there" looks like (in the long run). Between "here" and "there" there will plenty of surprises, probably ugly surprises for the most part.
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Moves ashore the northern Mexico coastline.


Thought so. The Euro and the GFS have been consistent in aiming it there for the past week or so.
Quoting 236. pureet1948:


Please explain.

Here's your explanation, for that and every other model graphic that gets posted here.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

....And it'll probably be much more than 5 days.
Good evening

A major thunderstorm complex just moved over Grand Cayman with rain rates of over 3 inches an hour. Luckily it has eased off now. The water in my cistern came up through the manhole covers in the garage and I had to crack the garage door to let it out. My entire street is underwater and most of the lawn submerged. Unbelievable. The West Bay beach road along the main hotel strip is under 3 feet I am told.

Winds were gusting close to 30 MPH. Radar showed very intense cells. The cistern has two overflow pipes, one 6 inch and one 4. Could not handle the run off from the roof.
u be doing good with that rain kman and too think 2 weeks ago it was the cayman island tropical desert look
Quoting 235. Misanthroptimist:


How much sun do you suppose is hitting Antarctic sea ice at this point?


At 60S on day 158, about 1 watt/meter^2, with only about 6 hours of sunlight. You can check here, but I don't know how to post the chart here.
Quoting 242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u be doing good with that rain kman and too think 2 weeks ago it was the cayman island tropical desert look


Too much of a good thing. Major flooding from two days ago and tonight will add to the misery. It was like a tropical storm here for an hour and a half.
Stay with it Yoboi, the differences make the point..What , if you can't disagree, should you be persecuted for a very reasonable argument? Many others find AGW a hoax..Reading the arguments and the facts, it is generally based on the teachings from a young age and the age reflects the teachings..the kool-aid is thick here, but that does not make it the truth. stay with what you believe is true, at least until they try to jail you for those beliefs, by then the opposition will have made themselves the answer.
Just a drop by, to read the new blog. Was AGW a topic of Dr. M's blog, or did I miss a change, in the rules, that the mods are/aren't supposed to enforce?
Diffluence on the SE side of the ULL over the SE GOM. A slow mover too.
Just did my daily blog update on the Atlantic season. I have an update on the western Caribbean low and the potential for a W Carib/southern Gulf system. However with the usually over-aggressive CMC model being the only model that shows development in both cases, things don't look likely for development in both cases.

Either way...the western Caribbean system looks more impressive today than it ever has...
Quoting 231. yoboi:

Let's take a look at global ice data...I know I know some have said we can only use global data with temps and using global data with ice rain hurricanes precipitation tornadoes snow drought etc...Is against some rule and revert to regional data to make a point...Would just like to share global ice nothing more nothing less...<


"In the article, "Updated NASA Data: Global Warming Not Causing Any Polar Ice Retreat”, James Taylor writes "updated data contradict one of the most frequently asserted global warming claims – that global warming is causing the polar ice caps to recede.” The author implies that since the most recent two years of polar sea totals are near the long-term average, that global warming is not causing the polar ice caps to recede. Wikipedia defines
cherry-picking as: the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking_(fall acy) ).

Global sea ice totals vary from one year to the next. When looking for impacts of global warming, climate scientists take a longer-term view. The long-term record of global sea ice (illustrated below) shows a long-term decline of global sea ice of about 5.5%. One is free to argue whether this decline in global sea ice is important, or whether it is a result of human impacts on the climate; however, it is misleading to claim that polar sea ice has not decreased
over the historic record. In his last paragraph, Taylor correctly asserts that receding polar ice caps are an expected result of a warming planet. In fact, the data shows that this is exactly what is happening. The rest of Taylor’s article is just whitewash intended to distract readers from these facts.

Cherry-picking limited data to illustrate a point on climate change is not a compelling argument, whether it is done by those who advocate for a warming planet, or those who advocate for the opposite. Publications including arguments of this type either lack a basic understanding of science or are intentionally misleading in order to promote an agenda."

Link
251. yoboi
Quoting 244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Lot of dry weather in Louisiana we can use it...But local meteorologist are starting to discuss some tropical moisture for next week....
Coming down heavy again :-(
Quoting 245. kmanislander:



Too much of a good thing. Major flooding from two days ago and tonight will add to the misery. It was like a tropical storm here for an hour and a half.
its all just been sitting there either over you or close by you not going anywhere maybe more tomorrow and maybe even later this evening but not as intense hopefully
That big mess over the Caymans and extending all the way towards the Bahamas is what a lot of the models were developing several days ago. For this reason we have meteorologists, however. Clearly we were never going to get a named storm out of this. Just a major increase in convection/rainfall associated with the MJO over what had previously been a very dry region. You'll hardly ever get anything organized down there this time of year with an El Nino. Way too much shear.

Quoting 246. akailm:

Stay with it Yoboi, the differences make the point..What , if you can't disagree, should you be persecuted for a very reasonable argument? Many others find AGW a hoax..Reading the arguments and the facts, it is generally based on the teachings from a young age and the age reflects the teachings..the kool-aid is thick here, but that does not make it the truth. stay with what you believe is true, at least until they try to jail you for those beliefs, by then the opposition will have made themselves the answer.


Nonsense. Got any science or just crazy? There is no argument, there is knowledge generated by the scientific process and then there is fantasy pseudo science masquerading as science purposely designed to trick people exactly like yourself. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
Quoting 251. yoboi:



Lot of dry weather in Louisiana we can use it...But local meteorologist are starting to discuss some tropical moisture for next week....
the dry air and flow across the gom best change first
Quoting 253. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its all just been sitting there either over you or close by you not going anywhere maybe more tomorrow and maybe even later this evening but not as intense hopefully


Well it just kicked in again so it could be a long night for many in low lying areas.
Quoting 210. Xyrus2000:



Einstein followed scientific principles. And because he based his work on that of other scientists he built a rock solid case for his theories, including coming up with repeatable experiments that could replicate his results so that other scientists could also test his theories.

Deniers, by comparison, are basically a bunch idiots claiming someone is a witch (usually Al Gore) and trying to burn them at the stake in the same vein as Monty Python and the Holy Grail. They don't follow scientific principles, they come up with completely unsubstantiated garbage that doesn't even adhere to known physics and chemistry, provide no models or repeatable experiments, they claim conspiracies and cover ups, and their best efforts consist of bad math, even worse statistics, and outright lies and manipulation.

Einstein, Hawking, Newton, etc. were not revin thosolutionaries. They were evolutionaries. They built upon the works that came before them. Deniers build upon nothing but willful ignorance and dishonesty. That's a considerable difference.


As an interesting aside, in 1905 there was no peer review as we know it.Einstein submitted the paper to the associate editor of Annalen der Physik, Max Planck, who reviewed and accepted it.
Quoting 243. JohnLonergan:



At 60S on day 158, about 1 watt/meter^2, with only about 6 hours of sunlight. You can check here, but I don't know how to post the chart here.



That extra ice isn't going to do much, is it? lol
Quoting 235. Misanthroptimist:


How much sun do you suppose is hitting Antarctic sea ice at this point?


What is this "sea" you speak of? I thought we were looking at a "global ice" chart????

Ice:
You keep using that word, I don't think it means what you think it means.

Meanwhile on planet Earth:
261. flsky
He loves the attention and people keep feeding his need. That's why he keeps hanging around.
Quoting 224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is no rule that says yoboi can't lie and besides you would miss him if he were banned
Quoting 257. kmanislander:



Well it just kicked in again so it could be a long night for many in low lying areas.
ya sorry too see that much now makes life stressful but damage is done with more to come
Quoting 261. flsky:

He loves the attention and people keep feeding his need. That's why he keeps hanging around.



Well I guess it's the world's first perpetual motion machine, Yoboi posts conspiracy blog science for attention, people refute it, he ignores it and posts more denier gibberish, and people refute it, and it continues. Maybe this is the new source of sustainable energy production?

Quoting 251. yoboi:



Lot of dry weather in Louisiana we can use it...But local meteorologist are starting to discuss some tropical moisture for next week....


Yeah, that's what I'm hearing over and over. Not sure if we have the same locals? lol

Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn
A hot and mainly dry weekend is forecast across Southeast Texas courtesy of upper-level high pressure. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 90's. The high is then expected to break down early next week so, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the forecast with cooler afternoon high temperatures. The second-half of next week, a surge of tropical moisture will move into Texas and Louisiana enhancing our rain chances.
Quoting 260. wartsttocs:




The Antarctic sea ice would be all that white stuff surrounding Antarctica in the above image. lol
Quoting 247. Sangria:

Just a drop by, to read the new blog. Was AGW a topic of Dr. M's blog, or did I miss a change, in the rules, that the mods are/aren't supposed to enforce?
Quoting 247. Sangria:

Just a drop by, to read the new blog. Was AGW a topic of Dr. M's blog, or did I miss a change, in the rules, that the mods are/aren't supposed to enforce?
Been wondering this myself.
Quoting 252. kmanislander:

Coming down heavy again :-(


Send it to us :-) Looks like an endless event in the Caymans. The rainfall accumulation must be huge now!!! 20 inches?
268. yoboi
Quoting 264. AtHomeInTX:



Yeah, that's what I'm hearing over and over. Not sure if we have the same locals? lol

Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn
A hot and mainly dry weekend is forecast across Southeast Texas courtesy of upper-level high pressure. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 90's. The high is then expected to break down early next week so, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the forecast with cooler afternoon high temperatures. The second-half of next week, a surge of tropical moisture will move into Texas and Louisiana enhancing our rain chances.



Was pat at KPLC yrs ago??
Quoting 209. Gearsts:

La nina!


La NINA?? When, when!?
Quoting 257. kmanislander:



Well it just kicked in again so it could be a long night for many in low lying areas.
Folks down there are getting drenched. Hope all are safe..I know how it feels.
Quoting 251. yoboi:



Lot of dry weather in Louisiana we can use it...But local meteorologist are starting to discuss some tropical moisture for next week....

Personally, I hope the dry weather continues for a bit. I'm still battling mosquitos here. Suckers are bad this year.
Quoting 265. Misanthroptimist:




The Antarctic sea ice would be all that white stuff surrounding Antarctica in the above image. lol


I wish they would show the Antarctic Circle on that map.
Quoting 263. Naga5000:



Well I guess it's the world's first perpetual motion machine, Yoboi posts conspiracy blog science for attention, people refute it, he ignores it and posts more denier gibberish, and people refute it, and it continues. Maybe this is the new source of sustainable energy production?




Well fossil fuels may be finite, but human stupidity is infinite.
273. yoboi
Quoting 246. akailm:

Stay with it Yoboi, the differences make the point..What , if you can't disagree, should you be persecuted for a very reasonable argument? Many others find AGW a hoax..Reading the arguments and the facts, it is generally based on the teachings from a young age and the age reflects the teachings..the kool-aid is thick here, but that does not make it the truth. stay with what you believe is true, at least until they try to jail you for those beliefs, by then the opposition will have made themselves the answer.


Thank you for the words of encouragement that you and others have shown openly or thru wunder mail....
Quoting 266. Kenfa03:

Been wondering this myself.

well we try to let the comm discussion go along with what the comm is discussing
as long as its the blog topic or topics related to the science in general
and last time I looked climate is weather weather is climate
so its right with the rules of engagement
as long as it don't get nasty or what not it will be what it will be
and there are comments of tropical activity posted within it
as well as rains over the caymans
and models forecasting future dev
so its really been right on topic actually
275. yoboi
Quoting 271. LAbonbon:


Personally, I hope the dry weather continues for a bit. I'm still battling mosquitos here. Suckers are bad this year.


Yes they are bad...I am worrying what the west-nile will be like this year..
Quoting 268. yoboi:



Was pat at KPLC yrs ago??


Hmmm, not sure. He may have been. He's on KBMT now. I can't get KPLC here but follow them on Twitter. :)
Quoting 241. kmanislander:

Good evening

A major thunderstorm complex just moved over Grand Cayman with rain rates of over 3 inches an hour. Luckily it has eased off now. The water in my cistern came up through the manhole covers in the garage and I had to crack the garage door to let it out. My entire street is underwater and most of the lawn submerged. Unbelievable. The West Bay beach road along the main hotel strip is under 3 feet I am told.

Winds were gusting close to 30 MPH. Radar showed very intense cells. The cistern has two overflow pipes, one 6 inch and one 4. Could not handle the run off from the roof.
Hey! I forecasted that earlier today!!!
lol
Seems we are back to nature's feast / famine road show .... Wonder how much of that energy will survive a trip over Cuba and into Bahamian waters .... we've had the overcast skies, but the rain has been mostly sketchy this evening.
Quoting 270. hydrus:

Folks down there are getting drenched. Hope all are safe..I know how it feels.


Waiting patiently for my turn :-)
Quoting 272. JohnLonergan:



I wish they would show the Antarctic Circle on that map.

I added a map with the Antarctic Circle next to the graphic. They're not to the same scale, but you can at least get a feel for how much ice is north of the Circle.
Quoting 210. Xyrus2000:



Deniers, by comparison, are basically a bunch idiots claiming someone is a witch (usually Al Gore) and trying to burn them at the stake in the same vein as Monty Python and the Holy Grail.


So you're saying my plan to prove global warming by throwing Al Gore into a duck pond to see if he floats . . . isn't going to fly.
Quoting 271. LAbonbon:


Personally, I hope the dry weather continues for a bit. I'm still battling mosquitos here. Suckers are bad this year.


Oh they are bad here too! First Texas case of west Nile was confirmed in Houston, I think yesterday. Hopefully that won't get too out of control but wow there is a lot of water around.
Quoting 278. CaribBoy:



Waiting patiently for my turn :-)
Maybe later this summer ... This afternoon it felt like a Twave was moving in due to the humidity and the warmth of the air mass. Perhaps you will see more Twaves with actual moisture associated in your vicinity ....
Quoting 281. AtHomeInTX:



Oh they are bad here too! First Texas case of west Nile was confirmed in Houston, I think yesterday. Hopefully that won't get too out of control but wow there is a lot of water around.
perfect breeding grounds
Quoting 216. PedleyCA:

Nice Weather you got Dakster..... Nice here too (74.2F)


I'm in Miami at the moment... Baking... er. Basking in the sunshine.

Mother nature tried to steam me today by sprinkling in the middle of the day.
285. yoboi
Quoting 276. AtHomeInTX:



Hmmm, not sure. He may have been. He's on KBMT now. I can't get KPLC here but follow them on Twitter. :)


The name sounded familiar....My local station is in Lafayette well between Lake Charles and Lafayette but Lafayette seems to carry more news for my area...
Quoting 170. yoboi:

I disagree I have seen many people over the years to speak against the consensus here only to get ganged attacked and to never here from them again....I must say it takes a very strong person to stand up against such tactics...I try my best to have cordial discussions here and at times I have crossed the line and have received a ban for doing so...I must say that I am very strong willed and will not be bullied into thinking a certain way...Case in point when I first started discussing climate change I said no way humans are the cause...Now after many hrs of debating and researching he science I changed my mind and now think humans can impact the climate by 10 %....With rational discussions and no gang tactics much can be accomplished in this world we live in...Anyways thanks for reading....



Yeah, agreed, and the science is still not settled about cigarettes too. Just a bunch of nanny state government types taking away our freedoms.

When you go back and look at the back trail of the "scientist" and "researchers" that are currently challenging the science of global warming you find they are the same people, using the same names that worked for the tobacco industry for many years.

Not simular people, not related people, not people that were associated people, the exact same people. They didn't even change thier names! Although they did change the names of the companies, probably because tobacco would have charged the oil companies extra.

I recommend anyone that even considering giving Yoboi the benefit of the doubt, read this post about Elon Musk,

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-world s-raddest-man.html

Then this one, but be aware, it is more of a book that a blog post. I would say most 80 percent of the post is the story of how the author became familier with the Global Warming, he needed to know the back ground to understand Musk's obsession with batteries. Also, WARNING: the writer will drop the occasional F bomb, but it is an entertaining read.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-chan ge-your-life.html
Link


Quoting 280. MaineGuy:



So you're saying my plan to prove global warming by throwing Al Gore into a duck pond to see if he floats . . . isn't going to fly.
He will likely sink. Duck ponds usually are fresh water, which is not as dense as salt water..:)
Quoting 282. BahaHurican:

Maybe later this summer ... This afternoon it felt like a Twave was moving in due to the humidity and the warmth of the air mass. Perhaps you will see more Twaves with actual moisture associated in your vicinity ....


I hope so...

A weak tropical wave moved NW through the Leewards this morning, bringing some light to moderate showers. The sun came back around 11am, then I saw a few CB clouds developping just NW of us, where atmospheric conditions were obviously better.

Quoting 288. CaribBoy:



I hope so...

A weak tropical wave moved NW through the Leewards this morning, bringing some light to moderate showers. The sun came back around 11am, then I saw a few CB clouds developping just NW of us, where atmospheric conditions were obviously better.
This actually sounds hopeful. Perhaps it won't be as dry for you guys this season.
For Dvorak Technique:
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 15:54:52 N Lon : 108:21:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.5mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -25.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.4 degrees



For NHC:
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 06, 2015:

Location: 15.8°N 108.0°W
Maximum Winds: 85 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 971 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 35 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A





Quoting 275. yoboi:



Yes they are bad...I am worrying what the west-nile will be like this year..


We got potential new diseases in South Florida that are worse or as bad as west nile. Dengue and Chickungunya to name a couple.

One good think about ALaska. No mosquito born illnesses - yet...
Quoting 285. yoboi:



The name sounded familiar....My local station is in Lafayette well between Lake Charles and Lafayette but Lafayette seems to carry more news for my area...


Ah, I knew you were somewhere close. We seem to have a common hurricane history. :)
Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the rest of the day everyone.
Quoting 279. Misanthroptimist:


I added a map with the Antarctic Circle next to the graphic. They're not to the same scale, but you can at least get a feel for how much ice is north of the Circle.


Thanks
295. yoboi
Quoting 286. Qazulight:




Yeah, agreed, and the science is still not settled about cigarettes too. Just a bunch of nanny state government types taking away our freedoms.

When you go back and look at the back trail of the "scientist" and "researchers" that are currently challenging the science of global warming you find they are the same people, using the same names that worked for the tobacco industry for many years.

Not simular people, not related people, not people that were associated people, the exact same people. They didn't even change thier names! Although they did change the names of the companies, probably because tobacco would have charged the oil companies extra.

I recommend anyone that even considering giving Yoboi the benefit of the doubt, read this post about Elon Musk,

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-world s-raddest-man.html

Then this one, but be aware, it is more of a book that a blog post. I would say most 80 percent of the post is the story of how the author became familier with the Global Warming, he needed to know the back ground to understand Musk's obsession with batteries. Also, WARNING: the writer will drop the occasional F bomb, but it is an entertaining read.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-chan ge-your-life.html


Well I disagree with you...I think it has been scientifically proven that cigarettes if consumed is not the best for your health...Yes you have every right to disagree and I accept that...And yes I know that one of the most prolific AGW speakers his family made there fortune with the tobacco industry and provided him the opportunity to pursue his passion...
296. yoboi
Quoting 291. Dakster:



We got potential new diseases in South Florida that are worse or as bad as west nile. Dengue and Chickungunya to name a couple.

One good think about ALaska. No mosquito born illnesses - yet...


Are there many horses in Alaska?? The reason I am asking is about mosquito born disease..
Quoting 295. yoboi:



...And yes I know that one of the most prolific AGW speakers his family made there fortune with the tobacco industry and provided him the opportunity to pursue his passion...


Game, set, match.



298. yoboi
Quoting 281. AtHomeInTX:



Oh they are bad here too! First Texas case of west Nile was confirmed in Houston, I think yesterday. Hopefully that won't get too out of control but wow there is a lot of water around.


I am surrounded by rice fields for miles around so yes the mosquitoes can be bad...But the matrix that I use is this..They are bad early in the morning and at dusk..But when they are bad at noon with the sun shining down we have a problem..This past week they have been really bad worst I have seen in years...
Quoting 296. yoboi:



Are there many horses in Alaska?? The reason I am asking is about mosquito born disease..


There are some horses. Define "many". I don't mean to be difficult, but IMHO there are not many people in Alaska... And there are certainly fewer horses than people. There are however, "many" moose, caribou, and bears...

There are a lot of mosquitos and biting flies in Alaska...
A nice quote from ADN: "...Sikes said every year Alaska is home to 17 trillion mosquitoes, weighing in at a whopping 96,191,666 pounds."


Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20150503/end-alaska-win ter-heralds-unfortunate-arrival-mosquitoes
Quoting 274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well we try to let the comm discussion go along with what the comm is discussing
as long as its the blog topic or topics related to the science in general
and last time I looked climate is weather weather is climate
so its right with the rules of engagement
as long as it don't get nasty or what not it will be what it will be
and there are comments of tropical activity posted within it
as well as rains over the caymans
and models forecasting future dev
so its really been right on topic actually



@Sangria, I sent you a wu-mail pertaining to this.

@Kenfa03 What KEEP has said above is grounded in language straight from the community admin from a hot discussion back in 2013. Admin is comment #288
Quoting 298. yoboi:



I am surrounded by rice fields for miles around so yes the mosquitoes can be bad...But the matrix that I use is this..They are bad early in the morning and at dusk..But when they are bad at noon with the sun shining down we have a problem..This past week they have been really bad worst I have seen in years...


Ugh. I can imagine. And their going to have a lot more water to work with if the precip model I've seen verifies. Showed All of Louisiana getting a bunch of rain and a lot of Texas. Looked like a front stalled across the northern areas maybe? Oklahoma and Arkansas too. And southern areas being fed by all that coming in from the gulf. Was hard to tell just from that. Haven't gotten to the discussions yet. But I just read this. Groan.

From Stu Otro's Tropical summary

LOOKING AHEAD
Models continue to indicate the potential for storm coalescence on the Pacific side of southern Mexico and northern Central America, then at least moisture if not also spin/circulation up into the Gulf side. Even if no tropical storm heading toward the Gulf Coast, if something like this were to verify, the rain would be a story.
Quoting 289. BahaHurican:

This actually sounds hopeful. Perhaps it won't be as dry for you guys this season.


2013 and 2014 were both drier than normal. If 2015 is another dry year (like it is so far lol) then 2016 may be wetter if El Nino dies during next spring...
Quoting 300. Dakster:

A nice quote from ADN: "...Sikes said every year Alaska is home to 17 trillion mosquitoes, weighing in at a whopping 96,191,666 pounds."


Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20150503/end-alaska-win ter-heralds-unfortunate-arrival-mosquitoes


I always thought it was so wrong that a place as cold as Alaska should also have to have so many mosquitoes! That's just not fair! And weakens my winter griping about how we here have all the heat and humidity and mosquitoes that we shouldn't have to be cold! Ever! Lol.




Even a little west wind south of western Cuba buoy 42056.
Link
Warm front causes severe lightning thunderstorms in South Brazil:


After a day with high almost reaching 27C (the high average for June is 18,5C), strong storms arrive here with winds around 35 mph. Since 5:00 pm dropped more than 2 inches of rain, the average of this month is 5,65 inches of rain in June. The day became night 1 hour earlier than usual.



Video





Radar:
307. yoboi
Quoting 299. Dakster:



There are some horses. Define "many". I don't mean to be difficult, but IMHO there are not many people in Alaska... And there are certainly fewer horses than people. There are however, "many" moose, caribou, and bears...

There are a lot of mosquitos and biting flies in Alaska...


Link
Quoting 277. BahaHurican:

Hey! I forecasted that earlier today!!!
lol
Seems we are back to nature's feast / famine road show .... Wonder how much of that energy will survive a trip over Cuba and into Bahamian waters .... we've had the overcast skies, but the rain has been mostly sketchy this evening.


Still raining but lightly now. Looks like the complex is moving to the SE. Reports coming in to emergency services for assistance due to flooding. Many stalled cars etc.
Quoting 184. K8eCane:

make a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.
"

IMO Yoboi isnt guilty of this because he seems to believe what hes saying is the truth.
Such a high level of skill in representing anti-science denialist community is truly remarkable. I'm sure that there are people at the Heartland Institute, Cato Institute and WUWT applauding his persistence in his trolling efforts. If he is not on their payroll, he should be. To be able to troll without restraint at an otherwise excellent weather and climate blog site is quite an accomplishment. The demonstration of a remarkable ability to con the moderating team into believing he is sincere is also notable - note the use of the phrase "he SEEMS to believe" by his defenders.

We are witnessing one the efforts of the finest and most skilled AGW/CC anti-science trolls I have ever encountered. Thankfully, a concerted effort by the fine cohort of regulars at Dr. Rood's Climate Blog - who are well grounded in science - has managed to help make that blog a remarkably troll-free place recently.

I hope that this blog too, will someday become less disrupted by AGW/CC denialist trolls so the tropical and severe weather buffs can enjoy their hobby without interference.
Quoting 305. Abacosurf:





Even a little west wind south of western Cuba buoy 42056.
Link


Nice little blob , Abaco!

Quoting 309. Xulonn:

Such a high level of skill in representing anti-science denialist community is truly remarkable. I'm sure that there are people at the Heartland Institute, Cato Institute and WUWT applauding his persistence in his trolling efforts. If he is not on their payroll, he should be. To be able to troll without restraint at an otherwise excellent weather and climate blog site is quite an accomplishment. The demonstration of a remarkable ability to con the moderating team into believing he is sincere is also notable - note the use of the phrase "he SEEMS to believe" by his defenders.

We are witnessing one the efforts of the finest and most skilled AGW/CC anti-science trolls I have ever encountered. Thankfully, a concerted effort by the fine cohort of regulars at Dr. Rood's Climate Blog - who are well grounded in science - has managed to help make that blog a remarkably troll-free place recently.

I hope that this blog too, will someday become less disrupted by AGW/CC denialist trolls so the tropical and severe weather buffs can enjoy their hobby without interference.


There are those here who crush his every attempt to mislead others from the truth. He is disingenuous, unashamed, and has no problem dispelling misinformation. Those who counter him here do so with the truth in a way that is verifiable, informative, and backed by thousands of peer reviewed papers and the vast vast majority of climate scientists. He is but a tool that allows the truth to shine that much brighter. Yoboi has been debunked to the point of humorous sideshow.
Quoting 310. Grothar:



Nice little blob , Abaco!



Did you get your "I heart blobs " bumper sticker yet?? :)

It would look nice on the Maserati!!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 16:04:24 N Lon : 108:28:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -36.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

The highest "CI" since she was borned.




Quoting 300. Dakster:

A nice quote from ADN: "...Sikes said every year Alaska is home to 17 trillion mosquitoes, weighing in at a whopping 96,191,666 pounds."


Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20150503/end-alaska-win ter-heralds-unfortunate-arrival-mosquitoes


Wow. I'd like to see the scale they use to weigh them.
Quoting 278. CaribBoy:



Waiting patiently for my turn :-)


You're better than last year..it seemed last year you didn't know the definition of "patience", lol. :-)
It's been dry for 2 years now (2013, 2014, 2015?), but it's been wet and green just before (2010 and 2011)!

Have a look on this time lapse, from july 2011... my island was so GREEN!!!!

The comparison with today is shocking!!
Quoting 316. CaribBoy:

It's been dry for 2 years now (2013, 2014, 2015?), but it's been wet and green just before (2010 and 2011)!

Have a look on this time lapse, from july 2011... my island was so GREEN!!!!

The comparison with today is shocking!!
I sure wish you guys will get out of your drought.
Quoting 316. CaribBoy:

It's been dry for 2 years now (2013, 2014, 2015?), but it's been wet and green just before (2010 and 2011)!

Have a look on this time lapse, from july 2011... my island was so GREEN!!!!

The comparison with today is shocking!!



Jesus, that's quite a difference!
Quoting 318. TimTheWxMan:




Jesus, that's quite a difference!
Hey Tim, what's up man. How's the weather where you are at.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 16:07:39 N Lon : 108:32:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Scene Type : EYE
321. vis0

Quoting 82. sar2401:

S/He will never answer you unless s/he can find yet another graph from yet another wingnut site to put up. If s/he does put up a graph, it will have nothing to do with anything being discussed. I don't believe s/he cares at all about being credible. It's no different than the unusual people one runs into on a street corner in New York. The message isn't important. It's the making of noise that counts.
sniffle...sniffle...bwahhhhhhhhHHH!!! (while standing on the corner of 27th & 5th)
322. vis0

Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think he does it just for badness too get a rise out of you all
i sometimes think yoboi understands its aGW but figure let me behave as if i (yoboi) doesn't believe so others post aGw imfo ...otherwise... think at least half of the aGW info post by members here on Dr. Masters pgs. showing its happening would not bet posted. Its a way of keeping aGw on the front page.  gonna go back to screaming on my street corner... : - O  ...phi-dolla  phi-dolla  phi-dolla for you 2 fer 1099 (later i'll be yelling "The end is near" but only after my breakfast can't be yelling on an empty stomach.
323. vis0
BTW that little low i posted ~6 days ago (~30N  60W degrees in Atlantic) that kept trying to escape the trough (upper level LOW that began 10 days ago) finally put on some clothing its what you see bubbling up SE of Long Island, i deem it (without Grothars permission...i'm doing my penance, 99 temperature conversions from F to C  ) Blobetino Herbie (after the little car that could...make money for Disney) Can we get an honorary  TD on that little LOW its been closed and at the lower level for 3 days. Fly one of those new experimental drones (the one called "sausage" after the Hurricane Hunters Miss Piggy) from it, a dropsound on a small helium balloon so it floats along with the LOW.
Picked 2.43" earlier in the week and added another 2.07" on Friday giving me 4.50" so far for June in Longwood. We made up for our May deficit.

Storms were severe too when they rolled thru. Lots of limbs/tree debris down here on Welch Rd in Apopka.




Here's what the sky looked like as the storms rolled in.

MEI update came out and this agency confirms that a Strong El-Nino is now ongoing first since 1997 and beating the 2009/2010 El-Nino in terms of strength already.

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
326. vis0

Quoting 203. MontanaZephyr:

Typical Pre-tropical storm swells:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01728688?t erm=kidney%2C+stem+cell&rank=183

Or so it looks to my eyes. This cam faces approximately ESE. Notice A) How far apart the swells are and B) How even they are .... well over a hundred yards and the wave crashes at the same time. THis will be visibile for just another hour or two before dark, and will be interesting to view in the morning.

I saw this effect with Opal (95?) on the gulf coast of Florida.... widely spaced, very evenly placed swells, just before the thing was known to be blowing up into a monster. (I am NOT suggesting that this storm will do that, but the implication seems to be that the lower air pressure of this storm is able to alter the surface wave pattern similar to what Opal seemed to do).
Does not make sense if one only thinks that strong force is needed to generate "joined-longer" swells, but stories from great grandfather stated thats how they were ab;le to forecast with great accuracy TS 2-4 days before they hit and in what direction it was heading, he;ling warn other islands where the bigger islands blocked the swells from reaching the smaller islands (honest smoke signals)

Maybe a form of gravity wave at a very low rate as pressure reaches a sudden (not low) just sudden change in going downward.

From my apt i've seen for yrs how the device i use to type of device (the portable version only as its attached to a persons aura..in this case me**) which i state affect weather would join winds from several directions after it reached a certain setting. So lets say its a multi directional breeze due to winds bouncing off structures, and those winds are at 4 mph. as the portable device was set higher i'd notice the winds once they reach a third higher of the natural speed (therefore if naturally its at 5mph it had to reach 7.66mph) the winds joined up towards the direction they where heading before the building/structure broke them apart. No ii was not seeing the wind i used tree leaves and noticed how the leaves moved in unison as if ocean waves.

So maybe BEFORE there is a storm the is a unison of the lite winds joining up and those small winds JOINED TOGETHER can move the broken waves into larger joined waves then MOmentun takes over, CURLY gives the waves curls and SHEMP dives into the kiddie pools and has to be saved by a lifeguard.



** why if you see my pics you notice i wear the same shirt for months ...peewww, its washed...when it rains)

sar24012 still haven't had my IDs processed (so i can upload at NYC libraries)...have to remember my background checks take time (been frisked at airports 16 times since 1984) i'm on the worlds top wanted list same name and looks (when we were younger though that guy is 10 yrs older but looks younger) as a top cartel boss.  i was stopped 2 times in my teen age years (looked older) Both times by over 20 US agents both, most interesting was on the A Train platform as i was being handcuffed agents dogs barking people were getting o n /off the train like nothing was happening and people screaming at the agents not to hold the trains doors.
Quoting 324. StormTrackerScott:

Picked 2.43" earlier in the week and added another 2.07" on Friday giving me 4.50" so far for June in Longwood. We made up for our May deficit.

Storms were severe too when they rolled thru. Lots of limbs/tree debris down here on Welch Rd in Apopka.




Here's what the sky looked like as the storms rolled in.




Good morning Scott. I picked up 0.51" yesterday. Storms formed a line around the Tampa area and seemed to strengthen as they progressed east. So far I'm at 1.03" for June. It's rained 4 out of the 5 days at my location, but all fairly low amounts.
Quoting 329. tampabaymatt:


that blob in the mid gulf, I wonder if that is what the CMC model is picking up on matt?
Quoting 328. tampabaymatt:



Good morning Scott. I picked up 0.51" yesterday. Storms formed a line around the Tampa area and seemed to strengthen as they progressed east. So far I'm at 1.03" for June. It's rained 4 out of the 5 days at my location, but all fairly low amounts.
a lot of Lighting flashes and thunder here on the gulf coast..might get an early rain this morning if it keeps coming onto land later this morning
Good morning from sunny Austria where it's currently 30°C ! :-)
As you can see there are hardly any clouds over much of Central and Eastern Europe which is because of high Walburga centered over the Ukraine bringing us the first heatwave of the year! The amazing low over Scotland is moving eastward though and will soon put an end to this nice weather. Instability is already increasing and clouds are rapidly forming over the Alps. Severe weather is forecast to impact my area later today and I'm just hoping that there won't be any hail! :-)

Bilder oder Fotos hochladen


I see that Blanca has strengthened significantly and is already at Category 4 strength based on satellite alone. I understand that it's still held at Cat. 3 because of the previous discrepancy between its estimated and actual intensity when the recon went in. What I'm asking myself now is how accurate its first peak intensity was estimated. Will its peak intensity be adjusted downwards in the post season analysis or did these errors only arise after the rapid weakening began? Do you think she still has a chance to surpass her first peak?
Quoting 310. Grothar:



Nice little blob , Abaco!





Looks like this deal here almost developed but too much shear on this!!

Eric
bianca=california.or.bust
Send some of these storms to coast here please! This stupid persistent ridge and fast moving east coast sea breeze to push inland since I don't know when is giving everyone else rain. East Central Florida is going to go into a drought soon if we don't get any rain.
Quoting 324. StormTrackerScott:

Picked 2.43" earlier in the week and added another 2.07" on Friday giving me 4.50" so far for June in Longwood. We made up for our May deficit.

Storms were severe too when they rolled thru. Lots of limbs/tree debris down here on Welch Rd in Apopka.




Here's what the sky looked like as the storms rolled in.


Good morning folks with a sigh of relief from my side: Forecasts were wrong for yesterday night, predicting that evening's thunderstorms would wind down in the second half of the night and thus fail to deliver much needed rain for mid Germany including my place. Instead those storms kept on going until morning and left 10mm (0,4 inches) of rain at my place Mainz and other locations :-) Here a radar pic (4.45 am) from a new weather site (Kachelmann-Wetter; service is free but we are asked not to repost their pics).

The dark side of tonight's weather: The large open air rock festival "Rock am Ring" (expected participants this weekend: 90.000) in Mendig was hit as well by several severe storms in a row in the wee hours of the night, interrupting the performance, drenching the place, destroying some of the tents and leaving 33 people injured by lightning (yeah, the lightning was crazy last night). Fortunately all victims should be able to leave hospital soon.

Here are some pics and videos (German local public TV site). International coverage is slow this morning. - The festival will resume this evening.

BBC had a weather video yesterday evening when the storms were still over France and Benelux:
Thunderstorms over Northern Europe
BBC weather video, 5 June 2015 Last updated at 21:58
Spectacular thunderstorms have been moving across Northern Europe, suspending play at the French Open in Paris. BBC Weather's Helen Willetts has been speaking to BBC World.

More severe weather in the offing for southern Germany today (with open air festivals in many places!).

You can follow the development here (this radar was restricted for paying members until recently, now it's free - as the competition on the weather market is heating up in Germany during the last weeks ;-)
Quoting 287. hydrus:

He will likely sink. Duck ponds usually are fresh water, which is not as dense as salt water..:)
He will never sink, to full of hot air.
Blanca is back to cat 3 and looks like it doesn't want to stop there. It only has 24 hrs to make use of the warm SST's before it weakens again. Watches and warnings posted in Mexico as Blanca nears.




Read more
Quoting 293. help4u:

Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the rest of the day everyone.

There were tens, and cones coral coniferous jeans of lattice..egocentric molecules can be cured..no berber or plugs
Quoting 339. NativeSun:

He will never sink, to full of hot air.
Full of somethin..he looks rather portly these days..:)
Quoting 313. pablosyn:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 16:04:24 N Lon : 108:28:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -36.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

The highest "CI" since she was borned.

img
src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02E /imagery/vis-animated.gif" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">





She looks stronger but I don't think she's a Cat 5. MAYBE a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4.
Quoting 311. DeepSeaRising:



There are those here who crush his every attempt to mislead others from the truth. He is disingenuous, unashamed, and has no problem dispelling misinformation. Those who counter him here do so with the truth in a way that is verifiable, informative, and backed by thousands of peer reviewed papers and the vast vast majority of climate scientists. He is but a tool that allows the truth to shine that much brighter. Yoboi has been debunked to the point of humorous sideshow.

So only your opinion is acceptable on this blog? Science should never be closeminfed and restricted to only one sides conclusions. Sad.
Quoting 311. DeepSeaRising:



There are those here who crush his every attempt to mislead others from the truth. He is disingenuous, unashamed, and has no problem dispelling misinformation. Those who counter him here do so with the truth in a way that is verifiable, informative, and backed by thousands of peer reviewed papers and the vast vast majority of climate scientists. He is but a tool that allows the truth to shine that much brighter. Yoboi has been debunked to the point of humorous sideshow.

So only your opinion is acceptable on this blog? Science should never be closeminded and restricted to only one side's conclusions. Sad.
Sad is ones lame attempt to encourage idiocy on a Science entry.

Anything else?
After seeing how complicated this storm has been to forecast over the past few days, I'm only half surprised it's a Cat 4 again. What's next?
Quoting 347. Patrap:

Sad is ones lame attempt to encourage idiocy on a Science entry.

Anything else?


Ignorance is the new face of America. Has been ever since we assassinated Kennedy.
Quoting 349. ILwthrfan:



Ignorance is the new face of America. Has been ever since we assassinated Kennedy.



LHO was responsible for that. We ACCIDENTALLY helped.
The weather in Wilmington NC is nice this morning.
Soccoro may have some weather from Blanca...The were hit by Hurricane Linda in 1997. Linda is the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific.

Quoting 300. Dakster:

A nice quote from ADN: "...Sikes said every year Alaska is home to 17 trillion mosquitoes, weighing in at a whopping 96,191,666 pounds."


Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20150503/end-alaska-win ter-heralds-unfortunate-arrival-mosquitoes


I wouldn't want to be the graduate student assigned to count and weigh them
Quoting 350. K8eCane:




LHO was responsible for that. We ACCIDENTALLY helped.
The weather in Wilmington NC is nice this morning.


Same here, front went through last night and Temps are down in the 50s this morning with low humidity. Expecting highs today near 70....perfect.
354. yoboi
LAZ034-046>050-070000-
POINTE COUPEE-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...PLAQUEMINE...
WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...
GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER
429 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE LOUISIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IS FORECASTING AN
OZONE ACTION DAY FOR EAST BATON ROUGE...WEST BATON ROUGE...
LIVINGSTON...ASCENSION...IBERVILLE AND POINTE COUPEE PARISHES...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

THE AIR QUALITY INDEX INDICATES THAT OZONE WILL BE AT THE ORANGE
LEVEL...WHICH IS UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. INCREASING OZONE
LEVELS MAY CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY
DISEASES SUCH AS ASTHMA...SHOULD AVOID PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION.

PLEASE TAKE WHATEVER VOLUNTARY STEPS YOU CAN TO REDUCE EMISSIONS
THAT CONTRIBUTE TO OZONE FORMATION. DRIVE LESS AND MAKE SURE YOUR
AUTOMOBILE IS IN GOOD WORKING CONDITION. MAKE SURE YOUR GAS CAP IS
TIGHT. WAIT UNTIL AFTER 6 PM TO REFUEL YOUR VEHICLE AND USE GAS
POWERED LAWN EQUIPMENT. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT AIR QUALITY
AND WHAT YOU CAN DO TO HELP PREVENT OZONE FORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
THE D E Q WEBSITE WWW.DEQ.LOUISIANA.GOV/ENVIROFLASH OR BY CALLING
Quoting 327. Gearsts:




El Nino....
Quoting 346. pensacolastorm:


So only your opinion is acceptable on this blog? Science should never be closeminded and restricted to only one side's conclusions. Sad.


Sorry, evidence is needed to support conclusions. Those are happily accepted, even if they challenge prevailing ideas. However, making things up, using pseudo science, accusations of fraud, and countless unscientific "arguments" are not accepted, because they are not science, they are not evidence, and they certainly aren't conclusions.

What's sad is post after post falling into the same false equivalence trap. It's post-modernity run amok. Despite the cries to the contrary, all opinions are not equal, all explanations for a giving phenomenon are not equally valid options, there are ways and methods for creating information. As I have stated before, science, the scientific process, and knowledge creation is privileged because of how it challenges and builds off of previous work. Contrarian opinion is not that, it isn't an equally valid position, and does not deserve to be considered as one.
next.surge.of.moisture..e.epac
Quoting 349. ILwthrfan:



Ignorance is the new face of America. Has been ever since we assassinated Kennedy.
Good morning ...Who,s we.?
hey guys sorry I was not able to post anything last night
as we had some hell of a storm it knocked out power until early this morning
pretending i have no clew what you guys are talking about so...

DAYTIME METEOR SHOWER: Today, Earth is passing a stream of debris from an unknown comet, and this is causing one of the most intense meteor showers of the year. Ironically, most sky watchers won't notice because the shower peaks in broad daylight. Astronomers call these meteors "Arietids" because they emerge from the constellation Aries not far from the sun. A good way to experience the shower is via radar. Listen for their echoes on Space Weather Radio.

for those who ENJOY not seeing whats right in front of them...
Quoting 346. pensacolastorm:


So only your opinion is acceptable on this blog? Science should never be closeminded and restricted to only one side's conclusions. Sad.


It's not about "opinions." That's the whole point. Everyone has an opinion about everything but that doesn't make most of them correct, knowledgeable or useful. As the post you were responding to said, "Those who counter him here do so with the truth in a way that is verifiable, informative, and backed by thousands of peer reviewed papers and the vast vast majority of climate scientists. He is but a tool that allows the truth to shine that much brighter."

We long ago passed the point where people could legitimately talk about "both sides of the debate" on whether global warming is happening. Some will adhere to the contrarian viewpoint until their dying breath, and that is of course their right. They'll still be wrong, however, just as the people who think the Earth is 6,000 years old are wrong, bless their hearts.
363. yoboi
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF
CLOUD COVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, AND A LACK OF A
MARINE INFLUENCE TODAY. THIS LACK OF A RETURN FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY OVER LOWER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN FROM A CONTINUING FETCH
IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WEAKENS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO CLIMO LEVELS.

AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PRODUCING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
Quoting 348. TropicalAnalystwx13:

After seeing how complicated this storm has been to forecast over the past few days, I'm only half surprised it's a Cat 4 again. What's next?



When I said it would re-intensify by Saturday, all I got was "upwelling" and moving into colder waters, etc, etc.

P.S. Your graph is 12 minutes old :):)
Letter to Dr. Thomas Peterson, current President of the WMO Commission for Climatology and a co-author of Karl et al. (2015)

from a Mr. Anthony Watts of WTFUWT
6/5/15

*****
Dear Dr. Peterson,

This latest paper, Karl et al. 2015 is an embarrassment to science. It epitomizes president Eisenhower’s second warning in his farewell address about science and politics becoming hopelessly intertwined, and thus corrupted.

In my last telephone conversation with you, I stated (paraphrasing) that “I believe you folks aren’t doing anything fraudulent, but you are doing what you feel is correct science in what you believe is a correct way”.

After seeing the desperate tricks pulled in Karl 2015 to erase “the pause” via data manipulation, I no longer hold that opinion. You needed it to go away, so you prostituted yourselves, perhaps at the direction of higher ups.

This will be NCDC’s Waterloo, and will backfire on all of you terribly on the world stage. Take a lesson from Yamamoto’s own observation after he bombed Pearl Harbor. Take a lesson from what is on WUWT today.

How sad for you all.

Anthony Watts
*******

LINK
Quoting 246. akailm:

Stay with it Yoboi, the differences make the point..What , if you can't disagree, should you be persecuted for a very reasonable argument? Many others find AGW a hoax..Reading the arguments and the facts, it is generally based on the teachings from a young age and the age reflects the teachings..the kool-aid is thick here, but that does not make it the truth. stay with what you believe is true, at least until they try to jail you for those beliefs, by then the opposition will have made themselves the answer.


Yes, a hoax that is nearly 200 years old. A hoax perpetuated by some of the most well know names in the history of science. I suppose Al Gore got in his magic time machine, went back to 1825, and threatened Fourier personally if he didn't make up the greenhouse effect. I suppose Mann also got in a magic time machine, when back to the 1890's and threatened Arrhenius that if he didn't write the first physical model of climate down, that Mann would smack him around with a large cod fish.

How can you accept the physics and science behind a topic like tropical cyclogenesis, but suddenly they become "a hoax" when applied to another? The laws of thermodynamics don't magically change based on context. Neither does the rest of physics or chemistry.

But that is exactly what deniers and yoboi want you to believe. They want you to believe that, despite all spectroscopic measurements and experiments, that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas. They want you to believe that cherry picking is a legitimate scientific and statistical analysis method. They want you to believe that conservation of mass, energy, and thermodynamics don't apply to the globe.

It's idiotic nonsense with absolutely no scientific evidence to back it up even at the most basic level.

Willful ignorance is not something that should be encouraged.
Quoting 346. pensacolastorm:


So only your opinion is acceptable on this blog? Science should never be closeminded and restricted to only one side's conclusions. Sad.


Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
Quoting 280. MaineGuy:



So you're saying my plan to prove global warming by throwing Al Gore into a duck pond to see if he floats . . . isn't going to fly.


That's more scientific than what deniers provide, that's for sure. Unfortunately I don't think you're hypothesis or methods will pass peer review. :)

Quoting 368. Xyrus2000:



That's more scientific than what deniers provide, that's for sure. Unfortunately I don't think you're hypothesis or methods will pass peer review. :)
Al's a nice enough guy but I doubt he'd cooperate in all the replication studies that would be required for the result to be accepted.
Quoting 367. JohnLonergan:



Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.


but people should still be respectful regardless. It does not give them the right to bash other people.
Quoting 368. Xyrus2000:



That's more scientific than what deniers provide, that's for sure. Unfortunately I don't think you're hypothesis or methods will pass peer review. :)


Most IRBs would find this to be an interesting experiment, but would bar the PI from performing it due to ethical issues involving experimentation on human subjects. :)
Quoting 369. Hurricanes101:



Pardon my little outburst here, but everyone has different opinions. If they do not agree with yours, ignore them. It does not give you the right to be a jerk to everyone like you usually are. Some of the things you have said usually would get people banned on here, you are supposed to have respect for others on this blog regardless of their opinions, something that seems impossible for you to do.


Jerk? I don't think so, I write in a very prescribed manner and I am not nice for nice's sake, but neither am I mean for mean's sake. If you read "jerk" into that, it would seem that has more to do with your perception than with me. I would also mention that respect for others isn't granted because they simply exist and I am under no obligation to respect others' opinions on this blog, especially when those opinions undermine something I have put so much effort into learning and studying over the years. So, respectfully, I think you are letting your bias cloud your interpretation of who I am and what I represent. Cheers.
Quoting 371. Hurricanes101:



but people should still be respectful regardless. It does not give them the right to bash other people.
If one is going to come into a purportedly scientific forum and repeatedly post debunked nonsense from discredited people, they're simply going to need to vigorously defend their comments. If they fail to defend and instead only post more debunked nonsense from more discredited people, they'll earn opprobrium. Thu is has always been, thus it shall always be.
...BLANCA WITH 130 MPH-WINDS... ...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO CHECK BLANCA...
9:00 AM MDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 17.7°N 109.4°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Quoting 365. no1der:

Letter to Dr. Thomas Peterson, current President of the WMO Commission for Climatology and a co-author of Karl et al. (2015)

from a Mr. Anthony Watts of WTFUWT
6/5/15

*****
Dear Dr. Peterson,

...After seeing the desperate tricks pulled in Karl 2015 to erase “the pause” via data manipulation, I no longer hold that opinion. You needed it to go away, so you prostituted yourselves, perhaps at the direction of higher ups.
Oh, my. If there were ever any lingering doubts as to whether Anthony Watts had slipped a few cogs, feel free to remove them. This is Alex Jones-level paranoia and nonsense...
Ok I'm never posting anything about models 10 days out ever again. Let's keep it to 5 days shall we?
ESPI now up over 2 not easy to do and only occurs during the strongest El-Nino's.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.03

Quoting 373. Grothar:








UPS notes that my shield generator parts wont be delivered to Weds.
Quoting 383. TCweatherman:

Ok I'm never posting anything about models 10 days out ever again. Let's keep it to 5 days shall we?


agreed
Quoting 380. Xyrus2000:



So you beat your wife? That's just sad.

Yeah, that's how ridiculous you sound trying to twist what he said into your pithy statement. What deepsea wrote and what your wrote are not even remotely related.

DeepSea, quite correctly, cited that there is an immense amount of scientific research and evidence that supports the conclusion of AGW. It's not an opinion. It's established science.

Yoboi et al. have no such evidence, with their most cited evidence contrary to the science being "liberal conspiracy" based nonsense or the fact that Al Gore lives in a house. Their belief is an unsubstantiated opinion based on conspiracy and ignorance.

Your argument is that if I say hurricanes are powered by the farts of angry fairies and that meteorology is vast conspiracy to cover up the existence of fairies, that I should be treated the same way as meteorologist with a Ph.D in tropical cyclogenesis and thousands of research papers backing him/her up. Not only that, but I should be allowed to continue to post pictures of tinkerbell, rant on about how Disney is actuall fairy Gitmo, etc. without reprimand or reprisal. That really doesn't make any sense, but if I "believe" then I guess scientifically I have a valid argument right?

There are plenty of crazy/nutter sites out there that will be more than happy to take whatever inanities at face value. Here, we try to stick to science.


There are equal amounts of scientists and research papers that say climate change is natural and cyclical. Why you must bring spouse abuse into the discision is pitiful.
Yeah, well feel free to post them if they so, er, "Many"
So back to tropical weather...is the CMC alone in predicting a northern gulf coast storm?
Where in any science publications is there any Scientific Evidence, published, that Claim the observed warming is cyclical, and natural?

How many Beaver and Moose were digging up coal in the past and powering whole Cities of Millions?

This is not GLP nor Lunaticoutpost.
GFS ENS

Quoting 390. Hurricanes101:



So I am acting like a jerk, but anyone who is putting people down for what they believe is not?


Wow, lol


Sorry you misunderstood my comment. You said "acting like a jerk " in your comment .LOL #369
Look it up.
Wow tough crowd on here. Some need Happy Hour this morning it seems.
400. Ed22
Good morning everyone, I saw an area of pressure developing between the Florida straights and the Andros Island in the Northern Bahamas , however it has cut itself off from the Frontal trough of low pressure over the Northern Tropical Atlantic; could this Tropical Disturbance could furthermore developed into something Tropical worthy. The other area just West- South - West of Jamaica now is to remain " MONITORED " because it could sprung surprise, furthermore how's the wind shear analysis going weather enthusiasts ???
.......
Quoting 401. Patrap:




Blanca's got a gun
405. yoboi
With the rain that we might get in Louisiana next week a few thoughts.. will the pumps kick on and do I need to have the shop vac on standby?? JMO I think a few days more of observations are needed...
drying out in Cayman...looks like the end of it
dont wish it away i say because we all know it could be months before its back
There is a Twave in the central carib but not convection so doubt that will add much to our totals.
it would be nic if the mods would re move all the bickering post from SunnyDaysFla and hurricane101 this is all off topic this is all a weather blog not a bickering blog
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:

Wow tough crowd on here. Some need Happy Hour this morning it seems.

They need some happy music for their morning (click 'listen live' in upper right corner) :)

Quoting 392. pensacolastorm:

So back to tropical weather...is the CMC alone in predicting a northern gulf coast storm?
I would not trust the CMC since it's been spitting out storms left and right.We were suppose to have a hurricane off the GA/SC coast today.The model is C onstantly M aking C yclones.
Quoting 409. Tazmanian:

it would be nic if the mods would re move all the bickering post from SunnyDaysFla and hurricane101 this is all off topic this is all a weather blog not a bickering blog


Sorry Taz
Quoting 409. Tazmanian:

it would be nic if the mods would re move all the bickering post from SunnyDaysFla and hurricane101 this is all off topic this is all a weather blog not a bickering blog


Sorry, will drop it.
Quoting 382. Neapolitan:

Oh, my. If there were ever any lingering doubts as to whether Anthony Watts had slipped a few cogs, feel free to remove them. This is Alex Jones-level paranoia and nonsense...

Yeah, he seems to have gone off the rails with this one.
Per the latest 9:00AM MDT advisory, Blanca's central pressure is down to 943mb. This is equivalent to her previous peak. 
Quoting 389. pensacolastorm:



There are equal amounts of scientists and research papers that say climate change is natural and cyclical. Why you must bring spouse abuse into the discision is pitiful.


Where are those equal amounts?

A search by James Lawrence Powell, current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, and former Acting President of Oberlin, President of Franklin and Marshall College, President of Reed College, President of the Franklin Institute Science Museum in Philadelphia, and President and Director of the Los Angeles County Museum of Natural History, as well as an appointee to the National Science Board, under George H.W. Bush and Reagan, where he served for 12 years, examined published papers from 1991-2012, and updated in 2013. He found 24,835 papers accepting anthropogenic global warming and 26 that rejected it. Of those 26, none formed a coherent alternative explanation. His data, methodology, and results can be found here.

I'll be waiting for you to link to the papers that purportedly show climate change as natural and cyclical in equal numbers.
I'll be waiting for you to link to the papers that purportedly show climate change as natural and cyclical in equal numbers.


LOL, you're going to be waiting a long damn time
I'll believe it when I see it!
Quoting 394. StormTrackerScott:

GFS ENS


Quoting 418. CuriousAboutClimate:



LOL, you're going to be waiting a long damn time


Quoting 408. 19N81W:

drying out in Cayman...looks like the end of it
dont wish it away i say because we all know it could be months before its back
There is a Twave in the central carib but not convection so doubt that will add much to our totals.



lol you said similar thing earlier in the week when we had the little break in conditions but it didn't go away it came back

I don't think this is the end at all

trop wave in central Carib expected to gain convection as it moves W

forecast from NWS has today being slightly better than yesterday but for tomorrow onwards worse conditions
with more heavy rain stronger winds and rough seas
Florida west coast storms starting early today
423. Ed22
That little feature NorthEast of the Lesser Antilles, could that little closed low pressure system could be something. The NHC need to check it which they will unlikely do so, furthermore more that low pressure system near The Florida Straights just West of the Andros Islands in the Bahamas need to be "MONITORED" closely and the Disturbance West South West of Jamaica. Wind coming from West South West at 5 to 10 mph, what say you weather enthusiasts ???
I'm sure everyone remembers the epic trolls who use to be mainstays. Those days are over, mods have ended that. Yoboi has added this, when he posts debunked information, it's quickly confronted with verifiable truth that is easily searchable by anyone looking for what's really going on. He has yet to ever counter the counter, because he can't. It's losing the debate and then showing up the next day to lose the same debate even worse by using the same wrong information and false arguments. Anyone watching these debates through the last few years has gotten a real picture and avenues themselves to seek out what's really happening. Yoboi in the end argues against himself. Everything he's ever posted denying AGW has been crushed with the weight of verifiable truth. I think he's been one of the best advocates here for AGW and doesn't even know it. Without him we wouldn't be having the debate we often do here. He's not rude, he's not mean, he doesn't mass troll the blog with comments, and he can be very pleasant. The hammer of truth must be brought down on destructive lies, and without said lies and misinformation; the truth wouldn't have as clear a stage to shine brightly on. So thanks Yoboi, by using endless streams of misinformation, you have become one of the best advocates for AGW here.
Quoting 420. Naga5000:






ok, that one literally made me LOL
426. JRRP
Quoting 209. Gearsts:

La nina!

no la niña but I do not expect too strong el niño for the next 3 month at least

Quoting 418. CuriousAboutClimate:



LOL, you're going to be waiting a long damn time


From Lovejoy(2014)Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing
of anthropogenic warming:


We statistically formulate the hypothesis of
warming through natural variability by using centennial
scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using
scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take
into account two nonclassical statistical features—long
range statistical dependencies and ‘‘fat tailed’’ probability
distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability
of extremes). Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may
reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels
[99 %.]
Quoting 424. DeepSeaRising:

. He's not rude, he's not mean,


I would disagree there, which is why I have zero respect for him. I will not go into details publicly, I have done that enough, but the evidence is still on admin's blog from long ago.
Good morning

Surface obs indicate that a low is just SE of the Isle of Youth and co-located with the 850 MB vort shown on CIMSS.

Shear is in the 20 to 30 knot range there and has been falling so there is a chance for something to try and spin up as it pushes to the ESE for the time being.




Quoting 427. JohnLonergan:



From Lovejoy(2014)Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing
of anthropogenic warming:


We statistically formulate the hypothesis of
warming through natural variability by using centennial
scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using
scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take
into account two nonclassical statistical features—long
range statistical dependencies and ‘‘fat tailed’’ probability
distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability
of extremes). Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may
reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels
[99 %.]


John, got a chuckle out of this one. I'd be hard pressed to find something I'd be less interested in reading.
Quoting 403. brandyn:



Blanca's got a gun


socorro's on the run
it looks like Blanca has a double eyewall

Quoting 426. JRRP:


no la niña but I do not expect too strong el niño for the next 3 month at least


Just joking
Quoting 430. LAbonbon:


John, got a chuckle out of this one. I'd be hard pressed to find something I'd be less interested in reading.


Honestly, the stats are mostly beyond me, so I concentrated on abstract and conclusions; I could grok them.
Slowdown of the el nino


437. TXCWC
Quoting 392. pensacolastorm:

So back to tropical weather...is the CMC alone in predicting a northern gulf coast storm?

Remain skeptical unless also has support of gfs or euro. EURO and GFS have been off and on developing a weak storm from a future different low than what cmc has been showing. Area to watch in a week or so will be Bay of Campeche. 06 gfs run was back on for a possible depression or weak storm. 12z running now
438. vis0
Well...i think that we never saw 2 missions in June over E. Pacific...
AF309 Mission #02 into BLANCA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 16:11 UTC Jun 06, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 24.25°N 104.22°W
Bearing: 243° at 250 kt
Altitude: 7772 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 7 kt at 240°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 388. CybrTeddy:
What an impressive comeback!
Impressive indeed. I though Blanca could make to back to 100 knots tops before weakening but it's using the warm water while it can. I'm not so sure it will weaken quite as fast now either. Could be problems for the mid-peninsula sections of Baja by Monday or so.
Nola Roux just delivered her first german Shepherd Puppy of this litter.



443. beell
Quoting 424. DeepSeaRising:

...It's losing the debate and then showing up the next day to lose the same debate even worse by using the same wrong information and false arguments. Anyone watching these debates through the last few years has gotten a real picture and avenues themselves to seek out what's really happening...


For me, I have become comfortably numb to it all and have had to seek out other avenues of self-entertainment.
A good thing. I thank all involved.
:)
This is true I did call the break but did not expect what happened yesterday evening that was awesome....

Quoting 421. wunderkidcayman:



lol you said similar thing earlier in the week when we had the little break in conditions but it didn't go away it came back

I don't think this is the end at all

trop wave in central Carib expected to gain convection as it moves W

forecast from NWS has today being slightly better than yesterday but for tomorrow onwards worse conditions
with more heavy rain stronger winds and rough seas
ahhh just rain no spin...

Quoting 429. kmanislander:

Good morning

Surface obs indicate that a low is just SE of the Isle of Youth and co-located with the 850 MB vort shown on CIMSS.

Shear is in the 20 to 30 knot range there and has been falling so there is a chance for something to try and spin up as it pushes to the ESE for the time being.





446. JRRP
Quoting 434. Gearsts:

Just joking

jaa... no poblem :p
Quoting 387. SunnyDaysFla:



Acting like a jerk is rather derogatory don't you think?
Lets end this debate about climate change, nothing will be accomplished on this blog. How many people on this blog support climate changed and it is caused by humans and how many people on here think it's part of a natural occurring cycle that is being influenced a little by humans? In the grand scheme of things, very few people on here partake, for or against the subject but the few on both sides ruin a very good tropical weather blog with all their name calling and bickering.
Quoting 447. NativeSun:

Lets end this debate about climate change, nothing will be accomplished on this blog. How many people on this blog support climate changed and it is caused by humans and how many people on here think it's part of a natural occurring cycle that is being influenced a little by humans? In the grand scheme of things, very few people on here partake, for or against the subject but the few on both sides ruin a very good tropical weather blog with all their name calling and bickering.


If you allow lies and distortions to stand you are complicit in the result, besides this IS a very good tropical weather blog, but it is also a climate change and global warming blog. You don't get to define what this place is based on your tastes. No one complains when tropical weather or local weather or extreme weather is posted when the topic of the blog is climate change, why do you seem to care so much when it is the opposite? You have the ability to simply ignore it or scroll past it. Again, it seems most of the problem here lies with the individual and not the group.
Quoting 442. Patrap:

Nola Roux just delivered her first german Shepherd Puppy of this litter.




Congratulations to you and Rue..May they all be healthy and happy.