WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricanes Blanca and Andres Set Records For Early-Season Northeast Pacific Activity

By: Jeff Masters 3:38 PM GMT on June 04, 2015

Hurricane Blanca put on a furious display of rapid intensification this week, going from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Tuesday morning to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds on Wednesday morning--a remarkable 65 mph increase in winds in 24 hours, an intensification rate that is rarely seen. Blanca topped out at 140 mph winds on Wednesday afternoon, making it the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. It has been a remarkable run of early-season activity for the region, since just two days before that Hurricane Andres topped out as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds, becoming the second strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. Only six Northeast Pacific major hurricanes have occurred prior to June 5 since accurate satellite records began in 1971, and two of them were this year:

1) Hurricane Amanda, 2014: 155 mph winds on May 25
2) Hurricane Andres, 2015: 145 mph winds on June 1
2) Hurricane Adolph, 2001: 145 mph winds on May 29
4) Hurricane Blanca, 2015: 140 mph winds on June 3
5) Hurricane Alma, 2002: 115 mph winds on May 30
6) Hurricane Bud, 2012: 115 mph winds on May 25


Figure 1. VIIRS infrared image of Hurricane Blanca taken at 3:58 pm EDT June 3, 2015. At the time, Blanca was at peak strength, with top winds of 140 mph. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/RAMMB/CIRA.


Figure 2. The eye of Hurricane Andres as seen at dawn on June 1, 2015 from the International Space Station. At the time, Andres was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: Terry Virts.

Blanca became a hurricane on June 2, setting a record for the earliest appearance of the season's second hurricane, beating the previous record set by Hurricane Boris of 1990 on June 5. Blanca also set a record for the earliest appearance of the season's second major hurricane on June 3. This is the second year in a row that the Eastern Pacific has set a record for the earliest appearance of the season's second major hurricane. The previous record was set June 12, 2014 (Hurricane Christina.) Only one other season besides 2015 has had the first two storms of the season intensify into major hurricanes--1995, when the year kicked off with Hurricane Adolph and Hurricane Barbara. The second major hurricane of the season typically doesn't form until August 19, and an entire season typically has only four major hurricanes (using stats from 1981-2010.) The record is eight major hurricanes in a season, accomplished most recently in 2014 (with a ninth storm, Genevieve, becoming a major hurricane after it crossed over into the Central Pacific.)

Forecast for Blanca
Hurricane Blanca performed its rapid intensification feat while parked for three days over an ocean hot spot, with warm waters of at least 26°C (79°F) that extended to a depth of about 100 meters (328 feet.) However, the storm sat too long in one place, and the powerful winds of the storm were finally able to churn up cooler waters from the depths on Thursday morning, causing Blanca to weaken to a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds (though an eyewall replacement cycle also may have contributed to the weakening.) Satellite loops show that a portion of the eyewall collapsed, and the cloud tops have warmed, indicating that the heavy thunderstorms of the hurricane have weaker updrafts and no longer extend as high into the sky. The storm began a slow motion to the northwest at 3 mph on Thursday morning, though, and this motion will carry the storm away from the cold spot it created, and should allow Blanca to re-intensify. By Friday, the hurricane should be at Category 2 strength, but is unlikely to have enough time to become a Category 4 or 5 storm before hitting cooler waters and a drier surrounding air mass on Saturday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Blanca on Friday afternoon. Blanca will pose a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula beginning on Sunday.

The earliest Category 5 storm in the Northeast Pacific was Hurricane Ava of 1973, which peaked at 160 mph winds on June 6, 1973. The earliest Category 5 storm in the Atlantic occurred on July 16, 2005, when Hurricane Emily attained sustained winds of 160 mph.


Figure 3. The total heat content of the ocean at 2 am EDT June 4, 2015 showed that Hurricane Blanca has been sitting over a "hot spot" for heat energy over the past three days. For hurricanes with intensities less than 90 mph in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs >28.5°C), values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 (yellow colors) have been shown to promote greater rates of intensification. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB.

NOAA and CONAGUA predict an active Northeast Pacific hurricane season
Andres and Blanca are merely the opening salvos of what is likely to be a very busy Northeast Pacific hurricane season. Averaged over the entire Northeast Pacific, sea surface temperatures are running 1°C (1.8°F) above average, which is an unusually high amount of extra heat energy available for storms to take advantage of. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for 15 - 22 named storms, 7 - 12 hurricanes, 5 - 8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 110% - 190% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 18.5 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, and 6.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 150% of average. CONAGUA, the Mexican meteorological service, is predicting 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The 1981 - 2010 averages are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Wunderblogging hurricane expert Steve Gregory will begin issuing regular Atlantic hurricane updates twice per week, beginning Thursday, June 4.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It looks like they may have to revise the "4 intense" hurricanes if the current trend keeps up.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Wow. DR. Masters on Blanca.
Quoting 1. Grothar:

It looks like they may have to revise the "4 intense" hurricanes if the current trend keeps up.


Hey Gro, I see you left the HEAT on for me down here in SFL... Can you turn it off please?
It appears that the eyewall replacement cycle is indeed occurring with a large expansion of the eye. The new eye wall appears to have doubled the size of the eye. The cyclone may undergo rapid intensification again as it insulates itself against dry air.


Quoting 511. Grothar:


Actually is should be LA, as in "laugh aloud". I never used the expression "out loud". Just an old English thing with me.

Actually Gro you would use Old English-
'laugh out loudeth'.


It would not surprise me if the Cat 6 debate is discussed within the month....
This is the graph TA always thinks is old, because of the date on the right. But it is current.

Quoting 6. rmbjoe1954:

Quoting 511. Grothar:


Actually is should be LA, as in "laugh aloud". I never used the expression "out loud". Just an old English thing with me.

Actually Gro you would use Old English-
'laugh out loudeth'.





"LA" !! (Hey, Joe)
Quoting 8. Grothar:
This is the graph TA always thinks is old, because of the date on the right. But it is current.



It may well be the Eastern Pacific basin will give the West Pacific basin a run for the most intense storms this season.
Quoting 4. Dakster:



Hey Gro, I see you left the HEAT on for me down here in SFL... Can you turn it off please?


Hot, isn't it, Dak. This has to be one of the hottest stretches over a Winter and Spring I can remember.
Quoting 11. Grothar:


Hot, isn't it, Dak. This has to be one of the hottest stretches over a Winter and Spring I can remember.



The rain chances have reduced somewhat in my neck of the woods for the remainder of the week. But there is no mistaking that the summer heat is on.

I believe that the mid Atlantic region will be shut down for most of the season. We will have to keep an eye on the GOM and NW Carib.
Quoting 5. brandyn:

It appears that the eyewall replacement cycle is indeed occurring with a large expansion of the eye. The new eye wall appears to have doubled the size of the eye. The cyclone may undergo rapid intensification again as it insulates itself against dry air.





Kinna looks to me like some dry air intruded and broke the eyewall integrity
WV loop

Interesting...

Thanks for the update Dr Masters.
Thanks Dr. Given the early numbers for the Pacific basin, and the current indicators, this may end up as a record-breaking and potentially deadly season for some depending on ultimate trajectories. The good thing about E-Pac storms is that many of them end up peaking away from land before they drop in intensity on the curve back in towards Mexico and the like (unless you get a longer track storm that heads towards Hawaii); however we often get ones that double back in and cause flooding rains and mudslides in Central America and Mexico. The Pacific will be the basin to watch this year between the typhoons in the West-Pac and strong start to the E-Pac season. The West-Pac Typhoons are the also potential killers because of their trajectories toward populated areas/islands in the Asian-Pacific.

Really paying close attention to this issue of very strong high-end storms and their ongoing frequency in the coming decades (with the Pacific leading the charge as the largest basin in the world with the most annual tropical storms overall).

Those two pictures you posted (and particularly the Space Station one) are stunning.

Feel better today than yesterday. could be because there is less low pressure around me today, or it could be i'm loaded down with BC Powders. I was hoping to find a global warming debate. oh well
Thanks Dr Masters for update
Im sure FOX news can accommodate yer last.

Here, we do Science though.
Very interesting when looking globally.....

Quoting 11. Grothar:



Hot, isn't it, Dak. This has to be one of the hottest stretches over a Winter and Spring I can remember.


Yep. And coming from an area where heat advisories are issued when the temps break into the 70F's it feels even worse.

At least we have something to track that hopefully won't hit any populated areas... I can handle large, impressive storms to nowhere (or fish storms).
Quoting 20. Patrap:

Im sure FOX news can accommodate yer last.

Here, we do Science though.


oh yes, right. forgive the lapse of memory
Quoting 22. yoboi:

Very interesting when looking globally.....




What about all the non-landfalling storms? It seems unfair to leave them out.
hey IR....you gonna be at the snooknook monday afternoon?
Quoting 25. tlawson48:



What about all the non-landfalling storms? It seems unfair to leave them out.


Quoting 25. tlawson48:



What about all the non-landfalling storms? It seems unfair to leave them out.

Would you expect to see a different pattern between landfalling and non-landfalling storms?
Quoting 22. yoboi:

Very interesting when looking globally.....




You get dat from here?

c3headlines.typepad.com/

Peer-Reviewed Study: Contrary To AGW Hypothesis Predictions, Tropical Cyclones On Declining Trend

2015-06-02_172644Article: Since 1980s, the Australian region has experienced a tropical cyclone trend that would send shivers down the spine of any global warming alarmist. Just another confirmation to be added to the pile of empirical evidence that challenges catastrophic global warming claims.


LOL
Quoting 28. Midnight092289:


Would you expect to see a different pattern between landfalling and non-landfalling storms?


No
Blanca has changed quite a bit over the past few days.

Quoting 22. yoboi:

Very interesting when looking globally.....


Oh, I'm so sorry, but the subject of today's question is the number of major hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific , and *not* the number of landfalling major cyclones around the globe. Unfortunately, this double fault disqualifies you from the rest of the match. However, stick around to see whether you may qualify for one of our consolation prizes. And don't forget to tune into tomorrow to watch another exciting episode of Grown Ups Discussing Weather And Science!
Quoting 32. Neapolitan:

Oh, I'm so sorry, but the subject of today's question is the number of major hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific , and *not* the number of landfalling major cyclones around the globe. Unfortunately, this double fault disqualifies you from the rest of the match. However, stick around to see whether you may qualify for one of our consolation prizes. And don't forget to tune into tomorrow to watch another exciting episode of Grown Ups Discussing Weather And Science!


It's impossible for some to understand the regional changes may occur at different rates than global changes. It's almost as if those people really have no grasp of the science they wish so bad to argue against.
Quoting 15. Neapolitan:

Interesting...



I am a novice on this blog, but it seems like the implicit message of this post seems broader than the Northeast Pacific.
The 12Z GFS does not show much rain for FL (given the time of year), but the rain it does show is confined to the west coast and inland. I think it's possible that the east coast of FL will enter into drought classification sometime this month. As long as high pressure remains off the atlantic coast, this pattern won't change.
thanks for the lunch time read
should be interesting getting all these blogs
loaded with info from yourself bob and now steve
lots of info to come
thanks

new dynamic trio
Oh, I'm so sorry, but the subject of today's question is the number of major hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific , and *not* the number of landfalling major cyclones around the globe. Unfortunately, this double fault disqualifies you from the rest of the match. However, stick around to see whether you may qualify for one of our consolation prizes. And don't forget to tune into tomorrow to watch another exciting episode of Grown Ups Discussing Weather And Science!

now that's too bad as today's prize was an open mind...but as a consolation he'll get a free years supply of warm weather...rising seas and melting ice.......thanx for playing yoboi....


Quoting 34. Midnight092289:


I am a novice on this blog, but it seems like the implicit message of this post seems broader than the Northeast Pacific.


Could you point to that implicit message? If you mean that global scale changes may be affecting regional scale events, then of course. If you mean that these regional scale events are necessarily indicative of global scale events, then not so much.
Quoting 34. Midnight092289:


I am a novice on this blog, but it seems like the implicit message of this post seems broader than the Northeast Pacific.

The blog post stages 'prior to June 5th', not total. Also, this data set is a bit too small to really see if it is a trend or just random variation. Adding Cat2s or maybe looking at annual early season ACE would give a better idea if this is really a trend or not.

Quoting 22. yoboi:

Very interesting when looking globally.....



Yeah, it s quite alarming. The number of landfalling hurricanes stays pretty much the same but landfalling cat 3,4,5 are much more frequent after 2000:).
when observing the big picture Global data is the best....
Last night's Euro and now latest 12z GFS takes Gulf System that may develop into S. Texas bringing heavy rains from Houston to San Antonio and further north (areas that don't need anymore rain currently). Of course this will probably change again until something actually develops
Quoting 41. yoboi:

when observing the big picture Global data is the best....


Lol. Are you saying things like geography are the same in all basins? You are pushing false equivalence. Global temperature data is weighted for a reason.
Quoting 41. yoboi:

when observing the big picture Global data is the best....


Agreed. Do you have data for early season hurricanes, which is what are listed in the blog post?
Quoting 44. OviedoWatcher:



Agreed. Do you have data for early season hurricanes, which is what are listed in the blog post?


Well ACE was discussed in the blog post.....Let's look at the data since 1970...

Quoting 37. ricderr:

Oh, I'm so sorry, but the subject of today's question is the number of major hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific , and *not* the number of landfalling major cyclones around the globe. Unfortunately, this double fault disqualifies you from the rest of the match. However, stick around to see whether you may qualify for one of our consolation prizes. And don't forget to tune into tomorrow to watch another exciting episode of Grown Ups Discussing Weather And Science!

now that's too bad as today's prize was an open mind...but as a consolation he'll get a free years supply of warm weather...rising seas and melting ice.......thanx for playing yoboi....



I believe it is time that Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson pick a date, and have an honest and forthright Q and A session about the climate. If for anything , to clear up misconceptions that continuously keep coming up here. I dislike negativity on this blog, but I am truly sick of seeing the same worthless subject matter, the same arguments, the same absurd, false, ridiculous, go nowhere, empty, blatantly wrong garbage that a handful of people insist on posting over and over again. This has gone on for years, and has no apparent end. With that being said, and to anyone who sees this, if you believe that AGW is not real, then at least post data that supports your statement. The people that believe warming is not occurring are plainly out of touch with reality in regard to the subject. I dont pick sides, or favor anyone here. I want the facts, data, and information that is entirely relevant to what is happen to our planet. Those that talk of conspiracies, pushing agendas, who,s liberal or hard right, I could not possibly care less. The truth is, there are people here who can and do make a difference , making things better , instead of worse. One day, I hope to see all the good folks do here be rewarded, and future generations look back and say, thanks guys for making the world a safer and better place.
Quoting 7. yoboi:

It would not surprise me if the Cat 6 debate is discussed within the month....


no
Quoting 45. yoboi:



Well ACE was discussed in the blog post.....Let's look at the data since 1970...



so to answer his question, no you dont, because you only know enough to copy and paste whatever you find from science denial websites.
Quoting 41. yoboi:

when observing the big picture Global data is the best....


2015-06-04 14:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind + Temp @ Surface

Quoting 46. hydrus:

I believe it is time that Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson pick a date, and have an honest and forthright Q and A session about the climate. If for anything , to clear up misconceptions that continuously keep coming up here. I dislike negativity on this blog, but I am truly sick of seeing the same worthless subject matter, the same arguments, the same absurd, false, ridiculous, go nowhere, empty, blatantly wrong garbage that a handful of people insist on posting over and over again. This has gone on for years, and has no apparent end. With that being said, and to anyone who sees this, if you believe that AGW is not real, then at least post data that supports your statement. The people that believe warming is not occurring are plainly out of touch with reality in regard to the subject. I dont pick sides, or favor anyone here. I want the facts, data, and information that is entirely relevant to what is happen to our planet. Those that talk of conspiracies, pushing agendas, who,s liberal or hard right, I could not possibly care less. The truth is, there are people here who can and do make a difference , making things better , instead of worse. One day, I hope to see all the good folks do here be rewarded, and future generations look back and say, thanks guys for making the world a safer and better place.


Even that probably wouldn't stop the usual suspects from polluting the blog with the same drivel every day. You're right, the daily back and forth with the same people who post the same nonsense is getting tiresome, but the mods refuse to do anything about it. The same person gets knee-capped on here every day, yet continues to post the same stuff and gets further crushed with actual facts and data. It boggles my mind what the intent is behind this. But, it all hinges on the mods stepping in and cleaning it up. It's one thing to post a well reasoned, dissenting opinion, but to post the same claptrap every day when your points have been disproven hundreds of times is just ludicrous.
Quoting 48. Naga5000:


so to answer his question, no you dont, because you only know enough to copy and paste whatever you find from science denial websites.


Which didn't actually address the question of early season ACE, not total season ace.
2015-06-04 14:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa


this is 1000mb level near surface temps
notice Greenland




Still kind of out there, but look at this,
Possible 2015?

But with less MDR activity
Quoting 32. Neapolitan:

Oh, I'm so sorry, but the subject of today's question is the number of major hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific , and *not* the number of landfalling major cyclones around the globe. Unfortunately, this double fault disqualifies you from the rest of the match. However, stick around to see whether you may qualify for one of our consolation prizes. And don't forget to tune into tomorrow to watch another exciting episode of Grown Ups Discussing Weather And Science!


Linking to a chart by Junior Pielke, a political scientist with a reputation for misrepresentation, is a third fault in his comment.
Quoting 48. Naga5000:


so to answer his question, no you dont, because you only know enough to copy and paste whatever you find from science denial websites.
We're not quoting this vacuous [redacted] again are we? If ya can't just ignore him, at least just call him a [redacted] and move on because he's obviously too [redacted] [redacted] to grasp the science you are trying to teach him.
Quoting 53. HurricaneAndre:


Still kind of out there, but look at this,


One could say models are always 100% accurate.

They are just misunderstood being able to peek into infinite parallel universes, timelines, etc..
This new Kelvin Wave built up fast. From 3C to 5C anomalies in a matter of days.

pik at me cause you wish only one opinion and everyone else that says something against it deserves to be removed and not permitted to give there freedom of opinion no matter right or wrong

if its not threatening insulting or filled with profanity there is nothing I can do about it

if ya don't like an opinion put it on ignore and ignored it

or flag maybe huh
if that's what ya want then no one will be here
There are those that do, and those that wish they did.
Me? I come here to learn more about the science and this blog is stimulating and motivating...
Quoting 53. HurricaneAndre:


Still kind of out there, but look at this,

If this actually forms, it would possibly be able to explode in intensity and organization, due to the circular structure of the BOC and sufficient warm waters. Shear, the lack of an anticyclone near the cyclone, are the only factors working against this possible cyclone.
Quoting 54. Patrap:


and I can post whatever I want as long as its blog related and its temperatures ya know red hot orange is warmer green is warm lite blue is cool dark blue is cold
Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:

This new Kelvin Wave built up fast. From 3C to 5C anomalies in a matter of days.


By this time last year there was no kelvin wave.
12z UKMET



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 35.7N 72.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.06.2015 35.7N 72.4W WEAK

12UTC 06.06.2015 37.5N 70.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.06.2015 38.2N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.06.2015 38.8N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.06.2015 37.9N 61.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.06.2015 38.0N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.06.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Quoting 66. Gearsts:

By this time last year there was no kelvin wave.


This next Kelvin Wave really did build fast and is still building as Westerly Wind anomalies continue to upwell warmer waters @ a deeper depth.
Quoting 64. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and I can post whatever I want as long as its blog related and its temperatures ya know red hot orange is warmer green is warm lite blue is cool dark blue is cold


What?
Quoting 69. tampabaymatt:



What?
posts 52 and 49
Quoting 63. tiggerhurricanes2001:


If this actually forms, it would possibly be able to explode in intensity and organization, due to the circular structure of the BOC and sufficient warm waters. Shear, the lack of an anticyclone near the cyclone, are the only factors working against this possible cyclone.


Quoting 58. FrostyNaples:



One could say models are always 100% accurate.

They are just misunderstood being able to peek into infinite parallel universes, timelines, etc..
I need to find a TARDIS to test this hypothesis... Anyone know how I can get a hold of the Doctor?
Sunny here in south Fl..... I almost did not sign in after reading through comments. Try thinking "climate cycles" science must first be able to be tested and duplicated to be science and so far no one can prove anything. Climate has always changed people or no, it always will.
Quoting 73. forecaster1:

Sunny here in south Fl..... I almost did not sign in after reading through comments. Try thinking "climate cycles" science must first be able to be tested and duplicated to be science and so far no one can prove anything. Climate has always changed people or no, it always will.

yes this is true always changes
but normally it would take 10's of thousand's of years to change
now it changes in tens of years instead
Quoting 55. Gearsts:

Possible 2015?

But with less MDR activity


nah
Science publishes new NOAA analysis: 'The Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus: Fact or Artifact?'

A new study published online today in the journal Science finds that the rate of global warming during the last 15 years has been as fast as or faster than that seen during the latter half of the 20th Century. The study refutes the notion that there has been a slowdown or "hiatus" in the rate of global warming in recent years.

Link
Quoting 55. Gearsts:

Possible 2015?

But with less MDR activity

Looks like a good analog to me. Most activity focused off the U.S. East Coast, with maybe one sneak storm in the Gulf and out in the MDR. Last year is a good one as well.
Quoting 77. NickyTesla:


as the saying goes
you can lead as many horses to the well that ya want
but you will never force not one of them to drink
till it wants too
Blanca eye is big
and overall not as hot and sexy as before
btw can someone confirm her movement on Satellite

I have it at NNW-N
Quoting 81. wunderkidcayman:

Blanca eye is big
and overall not as hot and sexy as before
btw can someone confirm her movement on Satellite

I have it at NNW-N
nnw it is

02E/H/B/C2
Dry air still been a huge issue.
Study dismisses ‘hiatus’ in global warming, says temperatures up

OSLO (Reuters) – An apparent slowdown in the pace of global warming in recent years may be an illusion based on skewed data, according to a study on Thursday that found no break in a trend of rising temperatures.

Link
The 2015 Pacific hurricane season, if you couldn't tell, is off to a hyperactive start. With the 15z advisories factored in, the season-to-date ACE total is already up to 28.18 units, surpassing last year's season to date total. For perspective, Andres and Blanca have accumulated 78% of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season's final ACE value (36.12 units).

Quoting 85. Gearsts:

Dry air still been a huge issue.



Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 2015 Pacific hurricane season, if you couldn't tell, is off to a hyperactive start. With the 15z advisories factored in, the season-to-date ACE total is already up to 28.18 units, surpassing last year's season to date total. For perspective, Andres and Blanca have accumulated 78% of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season's final ACE value (36.12 units).




Actually the current ACE accumulated is 28,65 and is 955% above average for this date.

Source: Ryan Maue
Quoting 41. yoboi:

when observing the big picture Global data is the best....

The correct time period also helps. For instance, if an IPCC projection says that a particular phenomenon will occur more frequently by mid-century, then pointing out that that phenomenon hasn't increased in frequency by 2015 in no way undermines confidence in the IPCC projection. (Pass that along to the first Pielke you see, will you?)

Additionally, claiming that there is no warming based on ice core data that ends in 1950 also is not very useful, even if 1950 is labeled "present".
Quoting 90. pablosyn:



Actually the current ACE accumulated is 28,65 and is 955% above average for this date.

Source: Ryan Maue
Maue counts ACE that is accumulated before a storm is named, whereas the NHC and other organizations don't, so his ACE numbers are almost always higher than the official ones.
Quoting 92. Neapolitan:

Maue counts ACE that is accumulated before a storm is named, whereas the NHC and other organizations don't, so his ACE numbers are almost always higher than the official ones.


No, counts when a tropical cyclone reaches 35 knots.
well darn....i wanted to comment to nicky...but luckily for me......i saw he had went to ban land...so i will not paste his comment and therefore join him.........

so instead...everyone sing with me.....

Your love, lifting me higher
Than I've ever been lifted before
So keep it it up
Quench my desire
And I'll be at your side, forever more


and when we do reach the ripe age of senility...may we all be here still singing....

much love to all....i'm out!!!
Quoting 90. pablosyn:



Actually the current ACE accumulated is 28,65 and is 955% above average for this date.

Source: Ryan Maue

Maue calculates his ACE using the storm's ATCF file. Sometimes the NHC doesn't go with the values they input into ATCF. I use operational advisories to calculate ACE until the tropical cyclone reports come out during post-season analysis.
12z run

Quoting 53. HurricaneAndre:


Still kind of out there, but look at this,


Although too far out, wouldn't be shocked if it turned out true, whether its systems that just scrape the southeast coast, or BOC/Yutcan systems, that's mostly all we've seen the last few years. It's been like a broken record.
Quoting 86. ColoradoBob1:

Study dismisses 'hiatus' in global warming, says temperatures up

OSLO (Reuters) - An apparent slowdown in the pace of global warming in recent years may be an illusion based on skewed data, according to a study on Thursday that found no break in a trend of rising temperatures.

Read more: Link


The paper is available here:

CLIMATE CHANGE

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus


Thomas R. Karl1,*, Anthony Arguez1, Boyin Huang1, Jay H. Lawrimore1, James R. McMahon2, Matthew J. Menne1, Thomas C. Peterson1, Russell S. Vose1, Huai-Min Zhang1
1National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Asheville, NC 28801, USA.
2LMI, McLean, VA, USA.
↵*Corresponding author. E-mail: thomas.r.karl{at}noaa.gov

ABSTRACT

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.

Full Text(PDF)
Quoting 75. wunderkidcayman:



nah


Why not?
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 2015 Pacific hurricane season, if you couldn't tell, is off to a hyperactive start. With the 15z advisories factored in, the season-to-date ACE total is already up to 28.18 units, surpassing last year's season to date total. For perspective, Andres and Blanca have accumulated 78% of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season's final ACE value (36.12 units).





Indeed. Regardless of how the official ACE numbers Looking at the total seasonal cumulative ACE thru this date, this year is way out in front of even the nearest rivals (last year, 2001, & 1992) with about 28.7 points of ACE thus far. We're definitely well into record territory. The average (1970-2014) cumulative ACE thru this date according to what I've calculated is 3.78264 pts, and we are currently running ~750% of average vs June 4th (keep in mind we're not done w/ today either, and these numbers will only increase). About 3.0% of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane season (in terms of ACE) has passed & this basin doesn't reach peak its climatological peak until August 24th, so we have a very long ways to go. We really won't be able to attain a somewhat accurate gauge on seasonal activity until at least July, when we're liable to see multiple long-track TCs in the southwestern portion of the basin, thanks to more favorable climo & a conducive background ENSO state.



Trivia: Very eventful weather-wise in DC at this time 7 years ago.
Quoting 100. JohnLonergan:



The paper is available here:

CLIMATE CHANGE

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus


Thomas R. Karl1,*, Anthony Arguez1, Boyin Huang1, Jay H. Lawrimore1, James R. McMahon2, Matthew J. Menne1, Thomas C. Peterson1, Russell S. Vose1, Huai-Min Zhang1
1National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Asheville, NC 28801, USA.
2LMI, McLean, VA, USA.
%u21B5*Corresponding author. E-mail: thomas.r.karl{at}noaa.gov

ABSTRACT

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming %u201Chiatus.%u201D Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a %u201Cslowdown%u201D in the increase of global surface temperature.

Full Text(PDF)

It's hard to believe that professional scientists wasted one minute on this.

Step 1. Look at the following graph and in either data set place thumb over the extreme outlier that is 1998.



Step 2. Tell me all about the pause.

Step 3. Observe how long I laugh.

Edit: In the event that some don't want to eyeball a trend (a legitimate concern), I have done the same thing by comparing the trends for 1979-1997 and 1999-present in both satellite data sets.



There is a slight slowdown in the RSS for the latter period while the UAH skyrockets. There is not, and has not been, a pause in the current warming.
Here's the updated ERSSTv4 tri-monthly 1990-2015 ONI data. March-April-May (MAM) came in @ +0.68C (vs the 1981-2010 base period). The raw May ONI anomaly was +.878C, up .14C from April. ERSSTv4 has yet to officially satisfy the CPC's ONI El Nino definition (w/ at least 5 running tri-monthlies of +.5C or greater) & likely won't do so until JJA.
weak.spin.over.w.cuba
107. TXCWC
I HATE wading into the global warming debate and usually stay far away so this will be my only post today (an MAYBE ever) regarding today's released noaa paper. An argument seems right until someone responds...Link

Blanca is now 100 mph.


I'm very sad.
Quoting 105. Webberweather53:

Here's the updated ERSSTv4 tri-monthly 1990-2015 ONI data. March-April-May (MAM) came in @ +0.68C (vs the 1981-2010 base period). The raw May ONI anomaly was +.878C, up .14C from April. ERSSTv4 has yet to officially satisfy the CPC's ONI El Nino definition (w/ at least 5 running tri-monthlies of +.5C or greater) & likely won't do so until JJA.



The JJA ONI may very well end up @ 1.5C or higher. If these trends continue. Very warm sub surface anomalies regathering beneath Nino 3.4. Also note the 1.5C anomalies all across the Central and East Pacific .


The latest runs of the CFSv2 are tightly grouped in the 2.5C to 3.0C range on the June update.

Quoting 108. pablosyn:

Blanca is now 100 mph.


I'm very sad.
I don't think it will recover it may but I myself don't think so

Storm
Type

Storm
Name

Forecast

Date

Time
(UT)

Latitude
(deg)

Longitude
(deg)

Wind
(m/s)

Pressure
(mb)

OI SST
(C)

HU 02E.BLANCA 00 hr 06/04/2015 12:00 12.20 255.10 48.93 960 30.42
HU 02E.BLANCA 12 hr 06/04/2015 18:00 12.60 254.40 59.23 ??? 30.27
HU 02E.BLANCA 24 hr 06/05/2015 06:00 13.90 253.30 61.80 ??? 29.20
HU 02E.BLANCA 36 hr 06/05/2015 18:00 15.20 252.10 64.38 ??? 27.57
HU 02E.BLANCA 48 hr 06/06/2015 06:00 16.70 250.90 61.80 ??? 26.97
HU 02E.BLANCA 72 hr 06/07/2015 06:00 19.30 249.50 46.35 ??? 25.95


Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I don't think it will recover it may but I myself don't think so


It's fascinating to see these storms churning out in the ocean and becoming cat4 or 5 without impacting land of any sort.
115. yoboi
When discussing temps Global data is the best....But when discussing tornadoes hurricanes ice precipitation drought etc...Regional is the best method...Oh how dare me to provide Global data with such things..When I created a chart that showed billions of yrs and then plugged in a 30 yr timescale I see nothing...Maybe I need better zoom to find it or a larger computer screen....
I think we will eclipse the 20-storm mark in the EPAC

Some thunderstorms bubbling in coastal Carolina

Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't think it will recover it may but I myself don't think so


If she will recover, i'll love Blanca for eternity. I want records.
Quoting 108. pablosyn:

Blanca is now 100 mph.


I'm very sad.


Well, she had a good run. Basically doubled in wind speed in the time it takes me to finish a series on Netflix.
Maybe Heartland can send us another? this one's busted. Again.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 107. TXCWC:

I HATE wading into the global warming debate and usually stay far away so this will be my only post today (an MAYBE ever) regarding today's released noaa paper. An argument seems right until someone responds...Link


Well, I suppose that if the best you can offer in response to real science performed by real scientists is denialist nonsense from a denialist website, I can see why you might want to stay out of the wading pool. Tisdale is a self-publishing e-book author with no climate expertise. Watts is a small-market radio weather reader with no climate expertise. Curry is a once-respected but now a laughing stock scientist who sold her credibility for face time on Fox.
@WSI_Energy: Models are sniffing out a possible Gulf of Mexico tropical storm next week from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event http://t.co/eBMvEvYQkO

Edit I can't get the picture to post. Should be in the link above.
In a major blow to environmental activists, the Obama administration said Thursday that the controversial drilling technique known as fracking has not caused any widespread impacts on drinking water, removing a key argument among those who want to limit U.S. oil-and-gas development.

The Environmental Protection Agency study, while identifying “potential vulnerabilities” in the fracking process that could affect water supplies, debunked the claim that the drilling practice is contaminating drinking water all across the country and represents a fundamental danger to clean water.

“From our assessment, we conclude there are above and below ground mechanisms by which hydraulic fracturing activities have the potential to impact drinking water resources … These mechanisms include water withdrawals in times of, or in areas with, low water availability; spills of hydraulic fracturing fluids and produced water; fracturing directly into underground drinking water resources; below ground migration of liquids and gases; and inadequate treatment and discharge of wastewater,” the report reads in part, before coming to its central conclusion.


“We did not find evidence that these mechanisms have led to widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water resources in the United States,” the study says.

The combination of fracking and horizontal drilling has dramatically transformed the U.S. energy landscape and has helped push domestic production of oil and natural gas to near-record highs. The U.S. is now the world’s No. 1 producer of oil and natural gas.

Energy industry leaders say the EPA study — which took more than five years to complete — confirms fracking is not inherently dangerous to water supply.

“After more than five years and millions of dollars, the evidence gathered by EPA confirms what the agency has already acknowledged and what the oil and gas industry has known,” said Erik Milito, director of the upstream group at the American Petroleum Institute. “Hydraulic fracturing is being done safely under the strong environmental stewardship of state regulators and industry best practices.”

The EPA report did identify several “specific instances” where drinking water wells were contaminated, but said the number of cases “was small compared to the number of hydraulically fractured wells.”

Some environmental groups argue there are other practices associated with fracking which may be harmful to drinking water supplies and must be carefully monitored by government regulators.

“The process of fracking itself is one risk factor. But in fact it’s not the biggest one. Ongoing physical integrity of the wells and handling the millions of gallons of wastewater coming back to the surface after fracking, over the lifetime of each well, are even bigger challenges. Relentless focus on these issues by regulators and industry is critical,” said Mark Brownstein, vice president of the climate and energy program at the Environmental Defense Fund.

Quoting 109. StormTrackerScott:



The JJA ONI may very well end up @ 1.5C or higher. If these trends continue. Very warm sub surface anomalies regathering beneath Nino 3.4. Also note the 1.5C anomalies all across the Central and East Pacific .





I wouldn't be surprised to see us top out near the strong threshold, & given the timing of the observed strengthening w/ this El Nino (& the analogs of 1905-06 & 87-88), we're liable to peak a bit earlier than usual vs climo, possibly in the mid-late fall. Also, it's beyond me why NOAA chooses to initialize the CFSv2 against noisier weekly NINO data, which is often susceptible to higher freq variance that doesn't necessarily represent ENSO, then chooses to climate show model forecasts for a tri-monthly period. Apples-oranges... The tri-monthly values are going to end up substantially lower regardless of the weekly maximums, (aside from the fact that the CFSv2 is notorious for over-reacting to oceanic KWs). I can't take the tri-monthly CFSv2 forecasts seriously when it's already being initialized .4-.5C above ERSSTv4's tri-monthly average. I'd personally like to finish calculating the ONI data from these twenty datasets to see how this year stacks up thus far, & even after finishing the calculations for the first 3 datasets, it's pretty clear we're not going to see a Super El Nino this year, much less challenge 1997-98.

No relaxation of shear across the Caribbean or Gulf per the PM CIMMS  pm update except for the tiny area around the Panama Canal region:




Quoting 122. Neapolitan:

If the best you can offer in response to real science performed by real scientists is denialist nonsense from a denialist website, I can see why you may want to stay out of the wading pool. Tisdale? Self-publishing e-book author with no climate expertise. Watts? Small-market radio weather reader with no climate expertise. Curry? A once-respected scientist who sold her credibility for face time on Fox.

Here is an article where Anthony Watts reports hail as being snow, even though temperatures were fifty degrees! He only corrected himself with a dismissive aside after commenters pointed it out.

That tells you all you need to know about him as far as both credibility and motivation.
Quoting 46. hydrus:

I believe it is time that Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson pick a date, and have an honest and forthright Q and A session about the climate. If for anything , to clear up misconceptions that continuously keep coming up here. I dislike negativity on this blog, but I am truly sick of seeing the same worthless subject matter, the same arguments, the same absurd, false, ridiculous, go nowhere, empty, blatantly wrong garbage that a handful of people insist on posting over and over again. This has gone on for years, and has no apparent end. With that being said, and to anyone who sees this, if you believe that AGW is not real, then at least post data that supports your statement. The people that believe warming is not occurring are plainly out of touch with reality in regard to the subject. I dont pick sides, or favor anyone here. I want the facts, data, and information that is entirely relevant to what is happen to our planet. Those that talk of conspiracies, pushing agendas, who,s liberal or hard right, I could not possibly care less. The truth is, there are people here who can and do make a difference , making things better , instead of worse. One day, I hope to see all the good folks do here be rewarded, and future generations look back and say, thanks guys for making the world a safer and better place.

I hear your argument, my friend, but one cannot help but notice the posts supporting AGW, hence the need for some folks to check for any dissenting facts and opinions. Here is one from WU indicating a drop-off in ACE over the past decade which is, at least, counter-intuitive if the planet is warming.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated _cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl

You should speak for yourself when you don't want any discussion. I enjoy hearing different viewpoints and suppression of dissent and name-calling brings to mind the concept that we don't like to hear what we are afraid is true. Besides, as the mod points out, eventually you will be left with only yourself on the blog if you only hear what you like to hear.


Blows my mind you can't play a 4 hr visible loop on Wundermap
Quoting 125. Webberweather53:



I wouldn't be surprised to see us top out near the strong threshold, & given the timing of the observed strengthening w/ this El Nino (& the analogs of 1905-06 & 87-88), we're liable to peak a bit earlier than usual vs climo, possibly in the mid-late fall. Also, it's beyond me why NOAA chooses to initialize the CFSv2 against noisier weekly NINO data, which is often susceptible to higher freq variance that doesn't necessarily represent ENSO, then chooses to climate show model forecasts for a tri-monthly period. Apples-oranges... The tri-monthly values are going to end up substantially lower regardless of the weekly maximums, (aside from the fact that the CFSv2 is notorious for over-reacting to oceanic KWs). I can't take the tri-monthly CFSv2 forecasts seriously when it's already being initialized .4-.5C above ERSSTv4's tri-monthly average. I'd personally like to finish calculating the ONI data from these twenty datasets to see how this year stacks up thus far, & even after finishing the calculations for the first 3 datasets, it's pretty clear we're not going to see a Super El Nino this year, much less challenge 1997-98.




I think we will come November maybe sooner. 1997 peaked @ 2.3C so its possible considering next weeks CPC update may end up @ 1.4 to 1.5C.
132. yoboi
Quoting 107. TXCWC:

I HATE wading into the global warming debate and usually stay far away so this will be my only post today (an MAYBE ever) regarding today's released noaa paper. An argument seems right until someone responds...Link




With regards to uncertainty, in their ‘warmest year’ announcement last January, NOAA cited an error margin in the global average surface temperature anomaly of 0.09oC. The adjustments to the global average surface temperature anomaly is within the error margin, but the large magnitude of the adjustments further support a larger error margin. But they now cite a substantially greater trend for the period 1998-2014, that is now statistically greater than zero at the 90% confidence level.

My bottom line assessment is this. I think that uncertainties in global surface temperature anomalies is substantially understated. The surface temperature data sets that I have confidence in are the UK group and also Berkeley Earth. This short paper in Science is not adequate to explain and explore the very large changes that have been made to the NOAA data set. The global surface temperature datasets are clearly a moving target. So while I’m sure this latest analysis from NOAA will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration, I don’t regard it as a particularly useful contribution to our scientific understanding of what is going on.

Link
Quoting 115. yoboi:

When discussing temps Global data is the best....But when discussing tornadoes hurricanes ice precipitation drought etc...Regional is the best method...Oh how dare me to provide Global data with such things..When I created a chart that showed billions of yrs and then plugged in a 30 yr timescale I see nothing...Maybe I need better zoom to find it or a larger computer screen....

A. No one said "regional is best." What is "best" is what is germane to the discussion, in this case the NE Pacific.

B. The plaintive whine of "billions of years" is never germane to a discussion of climate involving humans. On that time scale humans don't exist, except for a tiny, tiny fraction of time.

C. AGW doesn't claim that Earth has never been this hot (or hotter) before. What it claims is that large-scale human civilization has never seen temperatures this hot. AGW theory is eminently correct in that conclusion.
Quoting 107. TXCWC:

I HATE wading into the global warming debate and usually stay far away so this will be my only post today (an MAYBE ever) regarding today's released noaa paper. An argument seems right until someone responds...Link



Why would anyone believe anything they read on that site? It has consistently been wrong on virtually everything? Where it wasn't wrong, it was painfully and incompetently dishonest. Anyone who believes anything that they read on WUWT is either naive, ignorant, or trying to sell fantasy because they dislike reality.
Quoting 124. trunkmonkey:


What has any of that to do with weather/climate?
Quoting 135. Misanthroptimist:


What has any of that to do with weather/climate?


Fracking causes climate change!
Quoting 132. yoboi:




Funny how Curry never gets around to publishing that tripe, innit? lol
Quoting 136. trunkmonkey:



Fracking causes climate change!

Evidence?
If that does happen then maybe it'll head NNE.
Quoting 131. Grothar:


141. vis0

Quoting 95. ricderr:

well darn....i wanted to comment to nicky...but luckily for me......i saw he had went to ban land...so i will not paste his comment and therefore join him.........

so instead...everyone sing with me.....

Your love, lifting me higher
Than I've ever been lifted before
So keep it it up
Quench my desire
And I'll be at your side, forever more


and when we do reach the ripe age of senility...may we all be here still singing....

much love to all....i'm out!!!
CREDIT:: certainly not me another member (BBrain) posted the multi-headed maunsta.

If only the 3 headed (maunstaz) LOWs could could do this

Interesting SST's in the North Atlantic



Other side



Bleh

Meteorologist Kerry Cooper
Wet next week especially mid to late week as deep tropical moisture surges into the area. To early to say if we'll see any tropical development. Nonetheless heavy rains are possible in the tropical environment.
Those high SST's should keep the white sharks off of the Mexican resort beaches on the Pacific. Saw a great shark show on Nat Geo last week and one researcher was looking a a series of shark attacks (at different locations) across a few decades. He finally "cracked" the code when he figured out that these incidents correlated to La Nina events (opposite of now) with the cold upwelling and flow providing a cooler temp for the great white sharks along those Mexican beaches...................Just noting how ocean weather events, and temp changes, also impact fish migration and patterns.



So you are parked on a train track merrily eating a sandwich, and a train is barreling down the tracks but around a bend but you cannot see it. Several train watchers and a few conductors come running over screaming to get off the tracks. What do you do?
1. Wish the train away by telling people it doesn't exist because you cant see it?
2. Get off the tracks as fast as possible and listen to the experts and save your hide?

If you choose 1, perhaps you will only believe the train is really on its way until it it too late to get out of there.

That is my analogy of the day. I hope it doesn't stir up too much blog nonsense.

BTW we have some excellent early June mild weather in Western NY, the way it is supposed to be. Not the crazy 80s to low 30s to 80s back to 40s of May. That was a bit much.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12
May SSTs were the warmest on record since 1948 in Nino 3.4/4 regions (5N-5S, 120W-160E) -- H
Eric Blake @EricBlake12
May Tropical Atlantic SSTs were the 2nd coolest in the "active" era since 1995 (2009-1st)
02E/H/B/C1


a naked swirl within a swirl

who knew
Quoting 128. canyonboy:


I hear your argument, my friend, but one cannot help but notice the posts supporting AGW, hence the need for some folks to check for any dissenting facts and opinions. Here is one from WU indicating a drop-off in ACE over the past decade which is, at least, counter-intuitive if the planet is warming.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated _cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl

You should speak for yourself when you don't want any discussion. I enjoy hearing different viewpoints and suppression of dissent and name-calling brings to mind the concept that we don't like to hear what we are afraid is true. Besides, as the mod points out, eventually you will be left with only yourself on the blog if you only hear what you like to hear.



Your knowledge and input on the subject for the past 4 and a half years here demonstrates your enjoyment with different viewpoints. The lowering ACE over the past decade is to be expected considering there were 28 named storms in the basin during the 2005 season, and some other seasons being well above average. Your viewpoint on what has happened in the Atlantic over the past 10 years versus what is happening all over the planet is to me counter intuitive. Checking for facts is why I posted that comment in the first place.. I speak for myself whenever commenting, and always respect others opinions whether they differ or not. If you have time my friend, maybe you could shed some light on why people are afraid to hear the truth.
Quoting 138. Misanthroptimist:


Evidence?


welll, if he had said that fracking contributes, he would have been correct.. wish he had posted a link to that.. that the EPA has sold out to big oil again, especially on fracking is very bad news. The director should change her name from Sally Jewel, to Sally Fuel


Lowell part 2.
Quoting 26. ricderr:

hey IR....you gonna be at the snooknook monday afternoon?



Prolly not.. be pretty busy Monday... I haven't worked there since I became Indian Riverkeeper oct 2012, still spend time with Henry and Fred, and often join Fred on his radio show. Henry is on my Board. Had a great fundraiser Saturday, came home at 10PM to find our Patrol boat stolen... got it back Sunday missing about 15 grand worth of engine and gear.
Quoting 132. yoboi:



With regards to uncertainty, in their %u2018warmest year%u2019 announcement last January, NOAA cited an error margin in the global average surface temperature anomaly of 0.09oC. The adjustments to the global average surface temperature anomaly is within the error margin, but the large magnitude of the adjustments further support a larger error margin. But they now cite a substantially greater trend for the period 1998-2014, that is now statistically greater than zero at the 90% confidence level.

My bottom line assessment is this. I think that uncertainties in global surface temperature anomalies is substantially understated. The surface temperature data sets that I have confidence in are the UK group and also Berkeley Earth. This short paper in Science is not adequate to explain and explore the very large changes that have been made to the NOAA data set. The global surface temperature datasets are clearly a moving target. So while I%u2019m sure this latest analysis from NOAA will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration, I don%u2019t regard it as a particularly useful contribution to our scientific understanding of what is going on.

Link


Sorry Judy, the point is there is no pause. There was never any statistical reason to claim a pause. Doing so isn't supported by evidence, continuing to do so is crackpottery. Publish your response or shut up, the time for blathering has come and gone.

Edit: I've bolded something extremely silly by Judith and included this graph to show exactly why she is bonkers:
Quoting 150. indianrivguy:



welll, if he had said that fracking contributes, he would have been correct.. wish he had posted a link to that.. that the EPA has sold out to big oil again, especially on fracking is very bad news. The director should change her name from Sally Jewel, to Sally Fuel

He rarely provides links.

And the thing is, we know there's been contamination. All the report apparently says is that it's not widespread or systemic at this point. Similar to MTBE in gasoline, leaking USTs and piping contaminated lots of wells. But that wasn't really 'widespread', either. But I would bet the folks exposed to contaminated water don't really care how 'widespread' or 'systemic' it is, just that they've been exposed to nasty chemicals.

My question is - how widespread is the testing of potable water wells for potential contaminants from fracking? Do all states with fracking test?
Good evening, WU-folks, after a splendid summer holiday (Feast of Corpus Christi) in Germany. For quite a while already I've got a meteorological question for El Nino-specialists. I know that the early and mighty development of EPac hurricanes is (partly/mainly) due to current El Nino conditions. But reading this (quote from the blog entry) ...

"However, the storm sat too long in one place, and the powerful winds of the storm were finally able to churn up cooler waters from the depths on Thursday morning, causing Blanca to weaken to a Category 2 storm ..."

... I wonder whether in return those very strong hurricanes in EPac are capable of changing/weakening the development of a (strong) El Nino as those cyclones would remove some of the ocean's heat content into the atmosphere. Any ideas/studies? Thanks.
Quoting 154. Naga5000:



Sorry Judy, the point is there is no pause. There was never any statistical reason to claim a pause. Doing so isn't supported by evidence, continuing to do so is crackpottery. Publish your response or shut up, the time for blathering has come and gone.

Edit: I've bolded something extremely silly by Judith and included this graph to show exactly why she is bonkers:


Curry's chosen data sets provide no evidence of a pause when 1998 is left out:


Hadcrut4
1979-1997 Trend: 0.110 ±0.106 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-present Trend: 0.069 ±0.110 °C/decade (2σ)

BEST
1979-1997 Trend: 0.101 ±0.112 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-present Trend: 0.098 ±0.111 °C/decade (2σ)

HADCRUT4 shows a slight slowing, but nothing remotely like a pause. It's even possible, given the data, that the warming rate has increased since 1999. There is no reason to believe a pause has occurred or is occurring.

The entire line of bum logic rests on an extreme El Niño event in 1998 and has nothing directly to do with climate.
Blanca is upwelling and won't reach the full max potential that was expected yesterday. However, it will remain a significantly strong storm and weakens before it would make landfall in Baja California peninsula.

Read more...
159. Ed22
The area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean stay put for the next 48 to 72 hours we could see something develop from it, however wind shear is kinder relaxing now around 30 to 50 knots now, but still too high for anything to develop. The cyclonic spin just over the coast of Costa Rico which aid cyclones to form drifts more to the north that could help decrease wind shear over the Western Caribbean where the tropical disturbance is right now. Models are hinting on a possibility of tropical cyclone forming mid- next week into the weekend, however it could happen but timing is very crucial at that time; anyway let see what happen late next week. In Jamaica here, we are on the outer fringes of the tropical disturbance to our West at the moment we partly to mostly cloudy with some light showers. That tropical wave near the coast of Africa is pretty impressive at the moment, but its going to encounter some dry air and high wind shear over the Tropical Central Atlantic, thats about it.
160. yoboi
It will be a very interesting few weeks within the scientific community concerning the dozens of scientist that had peer reviewed science explaining the pause or rate of warming decline concerning temps....Is the peer reviewed process broken??? Because this will impact scientist work on both sides of the AGW debate...Yes both sides had papers submitted explaining the decline...This slowdown, or hiatus as the IPCC refers to it will they issue any addendums???
Quoting 110. StormTrackerScott:

The latest runs of the CFSv2 are tightly grouped in the 2.5C to 3.0C range on the June update.




2016 !! The year that may bring above normal precipitations to us in the E Caribbean.
Quoting 155. LAbonbon:


He rarely provides links.

And the thing is, we know there's been contamination. All the report apparently says is that it's not widespread or systemic at this point. Similar to MTBE in gasoline, leaking USTs and piping contaminated lots of wells. But that wasn't really 'widespread', either. But I would bet the folks exposed to contaminated water don't really care how 'widespread' or 'systemic' it is, just that they've been exposed to nasty chemicals.

My question is - how widespread is the testing of potable water wells for potential contaminants from fracking? Do all states with fracking test?


not widespread enough.. thing is, 5-6% of NEW wells fail on first test, and STILL go into service, most are not tested at all, just rubber stamp approved. 100% fail in 100 years.. we have millions of connections from lower strata to potable water aquifers, with high pressure contaminates waiting to move on up the failed grout outside the casing annulus.

Actually had someone here who must remain unknown, reach out to me for a trusted, very discreet water tester. Had fracking about to happen next to them and wanted to set a baseline for their water well... and it could not be known or livelyhood would be affected.
Quoting 160. yoboi:

It will be a very interesting few weeks within the scientific community concerning the dozens of scientist that had peer reviewed science explaining the pause or rate of warming decline concerning temps....Is the peer reviewed process broken??? Because this will impact scientist work on both sides of the AGW debate...Yes both sides had papers submitted explaining the decline...This slowdown, or hiatus as the IPCC refers to it will they issue any addendums???


Nope, untrue. You are misrepresenting what was studied. The "pause" was a slow down in the rate of global surface temperature increase. It was not a pause in the overall warming trend, a cooling trend, or anything of the sort. It was short term natural variability and the natural variability was what was studied. It gave scientists an opportunity to look at the nuances of the natural climate system.


As all of you know I'm 13 years old. Do you guys think that I will ever experience a hurricane season like the 2005 season again?
Quoting 163. Naga5000:



Nope, untrue. You are misrepresenting what was studied. The "pause" was a slow down in the rate of global surface temperature increase. It was not a pause in the overall warming trend, a cooling trend, or anything of the sort. It was short term natural variability and the natural variability was what was studied. It gave scientists an opportunity to look at the nuances of the natural climate system.





he knows that Naga, we have told him a hundred times...
Quoting 164. TCweatherman:

As all of you know I'm 13 years old. Do you guys think that I will ever experience a hurricane season like the 2005 season again?


I think you are going to witness the wildest weather ride in human existence... I also belive you will witness a major culling of the human herd.
Quoting 163. Naga5000:



Nope, untrue. You are misrepresenting what was studied. The "pause" was a slow down in the rate of global surface temperature increase. It was not a pause in the overall warming trend, a cooling trend, or anything of the sort. It was short term natural variability and the natural variability was what was studied. It gave scientists an opportunity to look at the nuances of the natural climate system.





Yep. The natural variability becomes evident if we correct for natural events. Using the Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) method demonstrates that when corrected for ENSO, volcanoes and solar variation there has been continued, statistically significant warming in all data sets from 1998 to present.
Quoting 166. indianrivguy:



I think you are going to witness the wildest weather ride in human existence... I also belive you will witness a major culling of the human herd.

I agree with you..Mother Nature is goin to B-slap the surface dwellers, and the Earths oceans will play a large role
Quoting 167. Misanthroptimist:


Yep. The natural variability becomes evident if we correct for natural events. Using the Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) method demonstrates that when corrected for ENSO, volcanoes and solar variation there has been continued, statistically significant warming in all data sets from 1998 to present.


I wouldn't sweat the "hiatus" stuff guys and gals. In a few years it will seem quite quaint. Maybe one day you could yearn for the days of the old "hiatus" nonsense.
Quoting 164. TCweatherman:

As all of you know I'm 13 years old. Do you guys think that I will ever experience a hurricane season like the 2005 season again?
You asked this yesterday too. Do you want a different answer?
When the Great Ice Sheets Start Going Down — Approaching the Age of “Storms”

The great ice sheets are melting with increasing velocity. Melt ponds are forming over Greenland, then pounding heat down through the ice like the smoldering hammers of ancient Norse fire giants. Warming mid-depth ocean waters are eating away at the undersides of Antarctica’s great ice shelves. Pools of fresh water are expanding outward from the bleeding glaciers, flooding the surface zones of the world’s oceans. Sea level rise rates have jumped to 4.4 millimeters per year. And the North Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is slowing down.

Link
Quoting 164. TCweatherman:

As all of you know I'm 13 years old. Do you guys think that I will ever experience a hurricane season like the 2005 season again?
You have posted comments for 4 days. Rather presumptuous to think everyone here knows your age. The 2005 Hurricane Season was unprecedented event. Never would have imagined making it to the W name, unbelievable that it would be a Cat-5
Quoting 166. indianrivguy:



I think you are going to witness the wildest weather ride in human existence... I also belive you will witness a major culling of the human herd.


Yes, but between now and then...PROFIT!!! And, after all, isn't the economy the important thing?
It's Raining Nitrogen In A Colorado Park. Farmers Can Help Make It Stop

"What if you applied that fertilizer — and that's exactly what it is — at that rate — 15 times what's on the label," he says. "Weird things are going to happen." ................ Weird things are happening in the park's alpine meadows and in the lakes nestled beneath its craggy peaks. Cheatgrass, an invasive weed, is making its way higher and higher into the park, buoyed by extra fertilizer, as are other weeds. Native trees are weakened by the extra nitrogen. Rivers are becoming more acidic.

.......................................... And it gets weirder.

"This past year, for the first time we saw an algal bloom in one of our high mountain lakes," said Cheatham. "Never been seen before, never been documented before."


Link

Quoting 173. Misanthroptimist:


Yes, but between now and then...PROFIT!!! And, after all, isn't the economy the important thing?
We take any more hits from major hurricanes and the economy will take a dive. jmo
Quoting 163. Naga5000:



Nope, untrue. You are misrepresenting what was studied. The "pause" was a slow down in the rate of global surface temperature increase. It was not a pause in the overall warming trend, a cooling trend, or anything of the sort. It was short term natural variability and the natural variability was what was studied. It gave scientists an opportunity to look at the nuances of the natural climate system.




The "pause" was never anything but a meme.
177. SLU
Quoting 161. CaribBoy:



2016 !! The year that may bring above normal precipitations to us in the E Caribbean.


... and the year of our next hyperactive hurricane season?











Quoting 160. yoboi
177. SLU
11:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2015




... and the year of our next hyperactive hurricane season?


Howdy Slu...Put me down for 16/8/5.....The NAM has heavy activity over the Atlantic in 17 months.
Quoting 177. SLU:



... and the year of our next hyperactive hurricane season?












Dreams can become possible.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
The next Kelvin wave is surprisingly near the magnitude of the one that started the re-strengthening of the
Scotland -

This is 1pm on Tuesday the 2nd of June on Aonach Mòr and this is just ridiculous. Unprecedented, perhaps

Link
Quoting 117. pablosyn:



If she will recover, i'll love Blanca for eternity. I want records.
You like more the Epac than the Atlantic right?
PDS tornado warning SE of Denver, not sure of how long the tornado's been down though or any possible damage.
Good night with some mixed weather/climate news - more or less important. The current severe drought in central Germany hasn't hit international news yet, though. After two very hot days a cold front should cause severe storms in Germany on Saturday - but without a good soaking for the drought stricken regions :-( Hope the forecast is wrong!

Drought-hit Indian village looks to 'water wives' to quench thirst
Source: Reuters - Thu, 4 Jun 2015 10:00 GMT, By Danish Siddiqui
DENGANMAL, India, June 4 (Reuters) - In the parched village of Denganmal, in western India, there are no taps. The only drinking water comes from two wells at the foot of a nearby rocky hill, a spot so crowded that the sweltering walk and wait can take hours.
For Sakharam Bhagat, as for many others in the hamlet some 140 km (85 miles) from Mumbai, the answer was a 'water wife'.
Bhagat, 66, now has three wives, two of whom he married solely to ensure that his household has water to drink and cook. ...


Why It’s Hard to Believe India’s Weathermen Who Cry Drought
WSJ, 4:03 pm IST, Jun 4, 2015
India’s weather department this week downgraded its monsoon rains forecast for this year to drought conditions.
While its prediction that the June-through-September rainy season will yield 12% less rain than usual is its most dire outlook in more than a decade, weather worriers should take the bureaucrats’ pessimism with a grain of salt and a bucket of rain water.
Over the last 15 years, the India Meteorological Department’s June predictions have proven accurate only four times, even taking into account a 4 percentage points margin of error. ...



More than 60 pct of China's underground water rated unfit for human contact
Source: Reuters - Thu, 4 Jun 2015 10:06 GMT
BEIJING, June 4 (Reuters) - Nearly two-thirds of China's underground water, and a third of its surface water, were rated as unsuitable for direct human contact in 2014, the environment ministry said on Thursday.
China is waging a "war on pollution" to reverse some of the environmental damage done by more than three decades of breakneck growth, but one of its biggest and costliest challenges is tackling contaminated water supplies. ...


Mudslide Buries Lift and Buildings at Cerro Catedral in Argentina
June 03, 2015 By Heather Hendricks

IKEA pledges 1 billion euros to help slow climate change
Source: Reuters - Thu, 4 Jun 2015 12:18 GMT
“And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head.”
- Terry Pratchett
Quoting 179. hydrus:
177. SLU
11:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2015




... and the year of our next hyperactive hurricane season?


Howdy Slu...Put me down for 16/8/5.....The NAM has heavy activity over the Atlantic in 17 months.
Hey! You stole my numbers!

:-)
Quoting 164. TCweatherman:

As all of you know I'm 13 years old. Do you guys think that I will ever experience a hurricane season like the 2005 season again?


You're 13 ?
There's a great impulse to lie to you, and not destroy your youthful optimism. All I can say is you will see the age of the anthropocene in full flower. You might want to tell your peers they will not be thinking about what I was thinking of at 13. Which was the Beach Boys :



The Beach boys - All summer long (HQ)
Quoting 176. SeriouslySushi:
The "pause" was never anything but a meme.

And now it's gone according to one of Judith Curry's preferred data sets. The BEST trend for 1999-present is 0.125 0.118 C/decade (2%u03C3).

Her other preferred data set also shows statistically significant warming since 1999 if data from the polar regions are included to cover HADCRUT4's shortcoming: Trend: 0.141 0.126 C/decade (2%u03C3).

The end of a meme is upon us. :-) Linkypoo
191. beell
Quoting 173. Misanthroptimist:


Yes, but between now and then...PROFIT!!! And, after all, isn't the economy the important thing?


The biggest danger in fracking will be a delay in achieving a low-carbon energy industry. As it stands right now, natural gas is dirt-cheap. Cheaper than coal. The path towards zero-carbon will have to include natural gas priced low enough to continue that economic reality-but not so cheap that healthy competition from renewables is choked out.

So, yes, the economy is an important thing. No amount of hand-wringing and teeth gnashing is going to change that immutable fact.
Quoting 173. Misanthroptimist:

Yes, but between now and then...PROFIT!!! And, after all, isn't the economy the important thing?
OTOH, a culling of the human herd will probably lead to less consumers, which overall leads to less profits. Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and, at least until recently, China, spent a lot of decades supposedly not running under a profit oriented system. I don't think their environmental record was exactly sterling because of this. There are a fair number of us capitalists out here that think it's possible to do better while retaining a more responsible profit motive.
This is an interesting appearance if nothing else.

Quoting 185. MAweatherboy1:

PDS tornado warning SE of Denver, not sure of how long the tornado's been down though or any possible damage.

Beautiful stovepipe, there's a chaser right on it.

Link
Quoting 190. Misanthroptimist:

And now it's gone according to one of Judith Curry's preferred data sets. The BEST trend for 1999-present is 0.125 �0.118 �C/decade (2%u03C3).

Her other preferred data set also shows statistically significant warming since 1999 if data from the polar regions are included to cover HADCRUT4's shortcoming: Trend: 0.141 �0.126 �C/decade (2%u03C3).

The end of a meme is upon us. :-) Linkypoo
But that was always the whole thing. There was never a set of reliable numbers that showed any kind of cooling over the last decade or so. The best it showed was a slight decrease in the rate of warming. If we see a decade of actual cooling, and if we don't have another monster volcano during that decade, I'll be willing to listen to alternate theories about global warming again.
It's gonna be Friday and for maybe 5-6 weeks in a row we will have a trof/ULL over Sooo Cal.....this one currently not going to provide much if any precipitation.......very scattered showers at best.....but it will be cooler than normal and after a cool May, a cool June would be welcome as both May and June can be VERY hot months in Soo Cal.



And for next week we could get a bit of what remains of Blanca with a chance of showers in the mountains and deserts. This setup usually sends most moisture into Arizona and New Mexico but we do get some rain from these post hurricane moisture fields time to time in Sooo Cal...lets hope for the best!

Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is an interesting appearance if nothing else.

Are those thunderstorms around the edge that have detached from the main circulation? It does look pretty unusual.
Quoting 192. sar2401:

OTOH, a culling of the human herd will probably lead to less consumers, which overall leads to less profits. Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and, at least until recently, China, spent a lot of decades supposedly not running under a profit oriented system. I don't think their environmental record was exactly sterling because of this. There are a fair number of us capitalists out here that think it's possible to do better while retaining a more responsible profit motive.

Not without massive government regulation there isn't. History teaches us that.

Russia and China were state capitalist dictatorships.
Quoting 197. sar2401:

Are those thunderstorms around the edge that have detached from the main circulation? It does look pretty unusual.

Quoting 192. sar2401:

OTOH, a culling of the human herd will probably lead to less consumers, which overall leads to less profits. Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and, at least until recently, China, spent a lot of decades supposedly not running under a profit oriented system. I don't think their environmental record was exactly sterling because of this. There are a fair number of us capitalists out here that think it's possible to do better while retaining a more responsible profit motive.


As a keynesian economic follower, I have no doubt we can have a massive overhaul to renewables and remain profitable. The key to capitalism is demand, but sometimes you have to create demand. :)

"If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment and, with the help of the repercussions, the real income of the community, and its capital wealth also, would probably become a good deal greater than it actually is. It would, indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if there are political and practical difficulties in the way of this, the above would be better than nothing." - John Maynard Keynes
Quoting 188. sar2401:

Hey! You stole my numbers!

:-)
what are the charges.? prediction theft.?
180. Gearsts
11:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2015


I found it interesting that Arizona has had a tropical storm with practically every El-Nino event..

Here is a list of every Arizona storm and the year..Corresponds almost perfectly.....Link
Georgetown University Votes To Divest From Coal

Georgetown University’s board of directors voted to divest the school’s endowment from coal companies Thursday, a move that fell short of students’ hopes for divestment from all fossil fuel companies.


Link
Quoting 201. hydrus:

what are the charges.? prediction theft.?

Omnipotence theft , a real big problem these days.
Quoting 155. LAbonbon:


He rarely provides links.

And the thing is, we know there's been contamination. All the report apparently says is that it's not widespread or systemic at this point. Similar to MTBE in gasoline, leaking USTs and piping contaminated lots of wells. But that wasn't really 'widespread', either. But I would bet the folks exposed to contaminated water don't really care how 'widespread' or 'systemic' it is, just that they've been exposed to nasty chemicals.

My question is - how widespread is the testing of potable water wells for potential contaminants from fracking? Do all states with fracking test?


I am much more concerned about water contamination here in California than the actual amount of water used to accomplish the task( I read about 70 million gallons of water) an actual drop in the bucket in the scheme of things. Agriculture uses quite a bit..........how many gallons to make a pecan or almond? I am sure they can grow the highest water required crops somewhere that have adequate water to do so....but then the price may go up for them Diamond Almonds.

Quoting 192. sar2401:

OTOH, a culling of the human herd will probably lead to less consumers, which overall leads to less profits. Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and, at least until recently, China, spent a lot of decades supposedly not running under a profit oriented system. I don't think their environmental record was exactly sterling because of this. There are a fair number of us capitalists out here that think it's possible to do better while retaining a more responsible profit motive.


And there lies the rub. Modern day capitalism has zero desire to change to a more responsible profit motive. All those many months, every month, the Fed was pumping ten billion a month in the economy. What did it do? The rich, talking the the top five percent, have made untold billions over billions over the stock market's 10K-17K gain over the last five plus years. It pumped up the stock market, all the while US corporations hold close to 700billion in savings right now, not creating jobs, nor raising minimum rates. And that doesn't take into account profit taking from US corporations. Big numbers. Corruptorations run our House and Senate, their tentacles run deep. We are hopelessly divided in the US as a people. Coincidence or well planned by those in power?
Quoting 186. barbamz:
Good night with some mixed weather/climate news - more or less important. The current severe drought in central Germany hasn't hit international news yet, though. After two very hot days a cold front should cause severe storms in Germany on Saturday - but without a good soaking for the drought stricken regions :-( Hope the forecast is wrong)
Why It’s Hard to Believe India’s Weathermen Who Cry Drought
WSJ, 4:03 pm IST, Jun 4, 2015
India’s weather department this week downgraded its monsoon rains forecast for this year to drought conditions.
While its prediction that the June-through-September rainy season will yield 12% less rain than usual is its most dire outlook in more than a decade, weather worriers should take the bureaucrats’ pessimism with a grain of salt and a bucket of rain water.
Over the last 15 years, the India Meteorological Department’s June predictions have proven accurate only four times, even taking into account a 4 percentage points margin of error. ...



Hi Barb. I was readng a story about the Indian Met Department and this issue last week. This was from one of the Indian national papers, I think the Times of India. It had an interesting perspective. Among India's middle and upper classes, the university graduation rate is one of the highest in the world. This does not help the Met Service get good meteorologists. The preferred occupations for graduates in India are medical doctors, lawyers, and civil engineers. Nuclear engineers and physicists have become more common over the past 30 years as the Indian Government has encouraged these fields to support the Indian nuclear weapons and power programs. Computer engineering of all types has also taken off in the last 20 years. India graduates so many medical doctors and engineers that their talent has become an export item. What hasn't become popular are "soft" physical science fields like meteorology. The degree and profession have had very little status until pretty recently. Almost all Indian metoerologists were products of Indian armed forces schools, and only about 25% even had a four year degree. Because of this, the Indian Met Service has lagged far behind other national met services in competence and accuracy. I was in Delhi in 2002, and there was a clear disbelief in all the weather forecasts. The people I talked to said Indian weather forecasters were just more government hacks and nothing they put out was reliable. Many degreed Indian mets have left for other countries because the pay and status is so low in their own country. The poor forecasting ability of the national service has given rise to a number of private services used by large corporations and even some governmental units in India. After some really embarassing failures in forcasting, including some Bay of Bangal cyclones, the government has tried to encourage more students to get degrees and has had a public relations campaign to raise the status of being a met. Unfortunately, the government of India is like the biggest aircraft carrier ever built in terms of an ability to turn itself around. This will be a problem that goes on for at least a generation.
208. beell
Quoting 197. sar2401:

Are those thunderstorms around the edge that have detached from the main circulation? It does look pretty unusual.


Underneath a slow moving hurricane, near-surface ocean currents are directed outwards and are also cyclonic. This water is warmer than what is upwelling at the center to replace it. Warm enough to fuel the storm to a certain degree. In the center, at the ocean/air interface, the cold water reduces evaporation/heat/convection. This may be what we are seeing here.

206. DeepSeaRising

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet doesn't give rats fuzzy butt about the Dow Jones. It is a mere fiction in the minds of men.
Quoting 206. DeepSeaRising:



And there lies the rub. Modern day capitalism has zero desire to change to a more responsible profit motive. All those many months, every month, the Fed was pumping ten billion a month in the economy. What did it do? The rich, talking the the top five percent, have made untold billions over billions over the stock market's 10K-17K gain over the last five plus years. It pumped up the stock market, all the while US corporations hold close to 700billion in savings right now, not creating jobs, nor raising minimum rates. And that doesn't take into account profit taking from US corporations. Big numbers. Corruptorations run our House and Senate, their tentacles run deep. We are hopelessly divided in the US as a people. Coincidence or well planned by those in power?
An absolutely killer post..That sums up nicely why greed is the worst of the seven deadly....Napoleon himself said " Religion is the only thing that keeps the poor from murdering the rich "...
Quoting 194. MAweatherboy1:


Beautiful stovepipe, there's a chaser right on it.

Link


Good several minutes there of watching that storm. Thanks MA.
Blanca's taken the classic appearance of a cyclone that has drank too much cold water, looks like Leslie of a few years back, with that big gaping crater in the centre as opposed to an eye. Luckily she had a lot of moisture to work with, because Nate practically disintegrated from the upwelling way back when.

Like Leslie, her upwelling has cost her mightily and, regardless of the conditions ahead, bouncing back adequately is gunna take time.

It's interesting how little research there seems to be on cold water upwelling and the overall effects it can have on a cyclone - because it seems to me that it can be extremely dire to a cyclone.
Quoting 211. Astrometeor:



Good several minutes there of watching that storm. Thanks MA.

Yeah, that was a great one, had some free time to watch and that one feed was right on it. Looks like it was mostly rural areas too.
207. sar2401

I saw article last week about how nobody is entering the field of botany in the US.
Finally.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUN 2015 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 13:18:42 N Lon : 105:29:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.3mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.9 4.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 78 km

Center Temp : -6.8C Cloud Region Temp : -57.9C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.3 degrees





Let's go Blanca, be strong, fight like your brother Andres.
Quoting 130. StormTrackerScott:



I think we will come November maybe sooner. 1997 peaked @ 2.3C so its possible considering next weeks CPC update may end up @ 1.4 to 1.5C.


I don't think you understand the difference between weekly & the tri-monthly data & are getting a false sense of hope that this NINO will challenge 1997-98 based on an apples-oranges comparison. 1997's tri-monthly peak was around +2.25C, however, in the weekly values under OISSTv2, 1997-98 peaked at +2.8C in late November 1997. This year's tri-monthly numbers are running around +7.-.75C, and we have an extremely long ways to go if we intend on staying ahead of 1997-98, much less the other strong El Ninos in the historical record. MAM's ONI tri-monthly anomaly of +0.68C in ERSSTv4 was hardly remarkable, only being 21st highest on record. Against El Ninos only (in bold), this year (italicized) is 11th highest. Meh.

MAM 1878 +1.96 C
MAM 1941 +1.29 C
MAM 1905 +1.28 C
MAM 1983 +1.22 C
MAM 1889 +1.18 C
MAM 1992 +1.18 C
MAM 1900 +1.13 C
MAM 1912 +1.03 C
MAM 1915 +1.00 C
MAM 1987 +0.99 C
MAM 1926 +0.95 C
MAM 1940 +0.95 C
MAM 1998 +0.95 C
MAM 1877 +0.85 C
MAM 1958 +0.82 C
MAM 1931 +0.80 C
MAM 1888 +0.75 C
MAM 1969 +0.72 C
MAM 1993 +0.70 C
MAM 1914 +0.69 C
MAM 2015 +0.68 C
217. beell
Quoting 214. ColoradoBob1:

207. sar2401

I saw article last week about how nobody is entering the field of botany in the US.


A growing problem in the field, no doubt.
Quoting 206. DeepSeaRising:


And there lies the rub. Modern day capitalism has zero desire to change to a more responsible profit motive. All those many months, every month, the Fed was pumping ten billion a month in the economy. What did it do? The rich, talking the the top five percent, have made untold billions over billions over the stock market's 10K-17K gain over the last five plus years. It pumped up the stock market, all the while US corporations hold close to 700billion in savings right now, not creating jobs, nor raising minimum rates. And that doesn't take into account profit taking from US corporations. Big numbers. Corruptorations run our House and Senate, their tentacles run deep. We are hopelessly divided in the US as a people. Coincidence or well planned by those in power?
Did you not read the story about Ikea in Barb's same post? A billion Euros is not chopped liver. As for the Dow Jones, you have done some historical cherry picking. The last five years have been good because the FED kept pumping money into the market, not because of any genuine stregth in the economy. If you included 2008 until today, things don't look so rosy after a 30% fall in just 2008. The market topped out at 13,667 in May 2007, so today's close of 17,905 represents a total annual gain of less than 4%. Trust me, my retirement account can confirm this figure. :-)

The important thing about capitalism is that publicly traded corporations only get money from two sources - customers and shareholders. Enough pressure by those two groups will make any corporation suddenly sound like the greenest people around. The question is how do we mobilize customers and shareholders to press for change. It will take some work, but I think it can be done if there's really a public will to see it done. This is the kind of thing we should be working on rather than just castigating corporations again for no good purpose.

Quoting 217. beell:


A growing problem in the field, no doubt.
LOL.
Quoting 206. DeepSeaRising:



And there lies the rub. Modern day capitalism has zero desire to change to a more responsible profit motive. All those many months, every month, the Fed was pumping ten billion a month in the economy. What did it do? The rich, talking the the top five percent, have made untold billions over billions over the stock market's 10K-17K gain over the last five plus years. It pumped up the stock market, all the while US corporations hold close to 700billion in savings right now, not creating jobs, nor raising minimum rates. And that doesn't take into account profit taking from US corporations. Big numbers. Corruptorations run our House and Senate, their tentacles run deep. We are hopelessly divided in the US as a people. Coincidence or well planned by those in power?

Largely coincidence. Never attribute to nefarious conspiracy what simple human nature can explain. Every society that has ever existed, from brutal dictatorships to free love compounds, has dealt with internal divisions and inefficiencies. Utopia does not exist.

Our modern, Western version of capitalism is far from perfect and I'm hardly some love-it-or-leave-it dude. But the much purer capitalism of the 19th century was an environmental catastrophe and so was pretty much every communist society of the 20th. At least what we have in the present allows for significant shifts in consumer demand and in public opinion.
First yes I am 13 and I am quite optimistic and secondly I didn't need to know that second part haha.
Quoting 189. ColoradoBob1:



You're 13 ?
There's a great impulse to lie to you, and not destroy your youthful optimism. All I can say is you will see the age of the anthropocene in full flower. You might want to tell your peers they will not be thinking about what I was thinking of at 13. Which was the Beach Boys :



The Beach boys - All summer long (HQ)
Quoting 198. Misanthroptimist:


Not without massive government regulation there isn't. History teaches us that.

Russia and China were state capitalist dictatorships.


Were? I'd say still are.
Quoting 200. Naga5000:


As a keynesian economic follower, I have no doubt we can have a massive overhaul to renewables and remain profitable. The key to capitalism is demand, but sometimes you have to create demand. :)

"If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment and, with the help of the repercussions, the real income of the community, and its capital wealth also, would probably become a good deal greater than it actually is. It would, indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if there are political and practical difficulties in the way of this, the above would be better than nothing." - John Maynard Keynes
I've read that quote before. Keynes was describing a full employment scheme based on something silly, almost like the Fed would create money out of nothing and then buy government bonds with this newly created money to give the illusion of prosperity. That could never happen, of course.

I'm not foolish enough to believe an army of pollyana stockholders and customers will assualt the penthouse floors of corporations to bring about a utopian revolution. That has also been tried. The government has to pass some new regulations to promote alternative energy, and defund subsidies for carbon based industries. I hate government regulations but it's sometimes the only answer. I remember how the corporate fuel economy standards and all the pollution control equipment on cars were going to kill off the economy. That didn't happen, and regulations that show some return in terms of trading some profit for a lower level of carbon use won't kill off the economy either. The key is the level of regulation and getting the most bang for the buck. At the same time, we shouldn't forget that army of customers and shareholders is pretty big, and they can be mobilized at the same time as the government getting their grubby fingers in things. :-)
Quoting 221. TCweatherman:
First yes I am 13 and I am quite optimistic and secondly I didn't need to know that second part haha.
Bob is a lot of fun at parties...
Quoting 221. TCweatherman:

First yes I am 13 and I am quite optimistic and secondly I didn't need to know that second part haha.


I'm 18 and my youthful optimism is all but gone entirely.

@ColoradoBob, am I allowed to blame your generation?
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Did you not read the story about Ikea in Barb's same post? A billion Euros is not chopped liver. As for the Dow Jones, you have done some historical cherry picking. The last five years have been good because the FED kept pumping money into the market, not because of any genuine stregth in the economy. If you included 2008 until today, things don't look so rosy after a 30% fall in just 2008. The market topped out at 13,667 in May 2007, so today's close of 17,905 represents a total annual gain of less than 4%. Trust me, my retirement account can confirm this figure. :-)

The important thing about capitalism is that publicly traded corporations only get money from two sources - customers and shareholders. Enough pressure by those two groups will make any corporation suddenly sound like the greenest people around. The question is how do we mobilize customers and shareholders to press for change. It will take some work, but I think it can be done if there's really a public will to see it done. This is the kind of thing we should be working on rather than just castigating corporations again for no good purpose.




Not talking about your retirement account. Talking about the profit taking by the very top. The numbers are staggering as I touched on earlier. Considering the top one percent control 40% of America's wealth, real change seems very entrenched against. I see what your on to and you are right about that being the path to corporate change. Have seen it happen. Plenty of examples are out there. Starting to think your becoming an optimist Sar.
Quoting 224. sar2401:

Bob is a lot of fun at parties...
are we having a party
Quoting 222. JohnLonergan:


Were? I'd say still are.
Neither have ever been capitalist under the normal meaning of the term either.
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



I'm 18 and my youthful optimism is all but gone entirely.

@ColoradoBob, am I allowed to blame your generation?


don't worry astro
we will fix it
it might get really really bad before we do
but it will be fixed it just comes with a price
Quoting 227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are we having a party
It's always a party in here, Keep.
and sure blame it on bob
Quoting 226. DeepSeaRising:


Not talking about your retirement account. Talking about the profit taking by the very top. The numbers are staggering as I touched on earlier. Considering the top one percent control 40% of America's wealth, real change seems very entrenched against. I see what your on to and you are right about that being the path to corporate change. Have seen it happen. Plenty of examples are out there. Starting to think your becoming an optimist Sar.
Here's what I think. Our capitalist system has many flaws. It still has less flaws than any other economic system ever put into large scale use in the history of the world. I'm willing to work in this system to try to cause change than either start on a system that's completely untried or one that has already failed in the past. It's not like we have a lot of choices in this world, but a choice of our type of economic system has brought more benefits to more people than any other economic system ever tried. It's not the flaws in the system that amaze me, it's that the system has lasted as long as it has.
Quoting 220. MaineGuy:


Largely coincidence. Never attribute to nefarious conspiracy what simple human nature can explain. Every society that has ever existed, from brutal dictatorships to free love compounds, has dealt with internal divisions and inefficiencies. Utopia does not exist.

Our modern, Western version of capitalism is far from perfect and I'm hardly some love-it-or-leave-it dude. But the much purer capitalism of the 19th century was an environmental catastrophe and so was pretty much every communist society of the 20th. At least what we have in the present allows for significant shifts in consumer demand and in public opinion.


Agree in large, the problem is modern consumer demand and public opinion has led us quickly to an androgynous anti-intellectual mass country. We're not there yet, but we've hit super warp speed toward. The world's in trouble. We may be quickly headed towards our forty years in the wilderness and God help the world.
Quoting 202. hydrus: I found it interesting that Arizona has had a tropical storm with practically every El-Nino event..



Real-time says the Ridge across the South/SW is shrinking, as convection moves back in after a
wee break. All the models have taken a strong, weeks-long ridge across the S into their calcs, I'd expect some different runs in a day or two.
Quoting 223. sar2401:

I've read that quote before. Keynes was describing a full employment scheme based on something silly, almost like the Fed would create money out of nothing and then buy government bonds with this newly created money to give the illusion of prosperity. That could never happen, of course.

I'm not foolish enough to believe an army of pollyana stockholders and customers will assualt the penthouse floors of corporations to bring about a utopian revolution. That has also been tried. The government has to pass some new regulations to promote alternative energy, and defund subsidies for carbon based industries. I hate government regulations but it's sometimes the only answer. I remember how the corporate fuel economy standards and all the pollution control equipment on cars were going to kill off the economy. That didn't happen, and regulations that show some return in terms of trading some profit for a lower level of carbon use won't kill off the economy either. The key is the level of regulation and getting the most bang for the buck. At the same time, we shouldn't forget that army of customers and shareholders is pretty big, and they can be mobilized at the same time as the government getting their grubby fingers in things. :-)


Yeah I can dig that interpretation, my point was that we can certainly spur profit by massive investment in new infrastructure, new energy creation, and an updated grid to store and get that energy where it is needed with little change in growth and maybe even a net positive. Again, and I admit the policy discussion is where politics come into play in climate science, this is only one solution obviously on the government spending to spur growth side of the debate. Or I have a quarter acre of land and some old banknotes, you supply the bottles.
Quoting 232. sar2401:

Here's what I think. Our capitalist system has many flaws. It still has less flaws than any other economic system ever put into large scale economic system ever tried in the history of the world. I'm willing to work in this system to try to cause change than either start on a system that's completely untried or one that has already failed in the past. It's not like we have a lot of choices in this world, but a choice of our type of economic system has brought more benefits to more people than any other economic system ever tried. It's not the flaws in the system that amaze me, it's that the system has lasted as long as it has.


Well yeah - we are wired to be somewhat risk-averse and not that well aware of what stress is/does. Especially when it comes to controlling our choices.
Quoting 234. redwagon: like this one, EEK:

.Napoleon himself said " Religion is the only thing that keeps the poor from murdering the rich "...

This works right up to the point When Germans put Lenin on a train to Saint Petersberg.

Too bad Nicky Tesla is busy feeding sick pigeons in his cramped hotel room , he could chastise us all for being off topic.
This works right up to the point, when Germans put Lenin on a train to Saint Petersberg.

And give him a million dollars.
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



I'm 18 and my youthful optimism is all but gone entirely.

@ColoradoBob, am I allowed to blame your generation?


At one point it disappears completely, only to be replaced by putting your faith in hurricane models.
WW53 makes many a good point. Some which fly right over my head, glad to have him here. Scott has followed "closely" shall we say this out of season El-Nino. There are no signs, as of the moment, that suggest this will ever rival 97. But tell that to those in Texas and Oklahoma. 2015 El-Nino has already been heard from loud and clear.
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



I'm 18 and my youthful optimism is all but gone entirely.

@ColoradoBob, am I allowed to blame your generation?


Yes indeed , me and thousand generations before me. By the way, I lost my youthful optimism when I was about your age. I'll be 66 in Sept.
Quoting 232. sar2401:

Here's what I think. Our capitalist system has many flaws. It still has less flaws than any other economic system ever put into large scale economic system ever tried in the history of the world. I'm willing to work in this system to try to cause change than either start on a system that's completely untried or one that has already failed in the past. It's not like we have a lot of choices in this world, but a choice of our type of economic system has brought more benefits to more people than any other economic system ever tried. It's not the flaws in the system that amaze me, it's that the system has lasted as long as it has.


It won't last much longer. It's impossible to have infinite growth on finite resources. You either establish an equilibrium that you can sustain or you consume yourself to death. Right now we're doing the latter when we should be doing the former.
Quoting 242. ColoradoBob1:



Yes indeed , me and thousand generations before me. By the way, I lost my youthful optimism when I was about your age. I'll be 66 in Sept.


I'm middle of the pack (38) and optimism quickly gets replaced by realism if you keep up with the world as a young man. As long as we never lose hope, that's where cynicism sets in.
Quoting 154. Naga5000:



Sorry Judy, the point is there is no pause. There was never any statistical reason to claim a pause. Doing so isn't supported by evidence, continuing to do so is crackpottery. Publish your response or shut up, the time for blathering has come and gone.

Edit: I've bolded something extremely silly by Judith and included this graph to show exactly why she is bonkers:




I hate the use of the terms "pause" or "hiatus", statistically it's nothing but noise in the data due to natural vaiations, notably ENSO, volcanoes, and aerosols. Tamino shows this in the following images.

Step 1. Take data from 1970-1999 and calculate the trend with 95% confidence limits.



Step 2. Extend trend and confidence limits to the end of 2014.



Step 3. Add the 2000-2014 data to the graph



This gives a 45 year statistically significant trend and even 1998 falls within the 95% confidence

Animated version:



As Tamino wrote, It’s the Trend, Stupid
Quoting 206. DeepSeaRising:



And there lies the rub. Modern day capitalism has zero desire to change to a more responsible profit motive. All those many months, every month, the Fed was pumping ten billion a month in the economy. What did it do? The rich, talking the the top five percent, have made untold billions over billions over the stock market's 10K-17K gain over the last five plus years. It pumped up the stock market, all the while US corporations hold close to 700billion in savings right now, not creating jobs, nor raising minimum rates. And that doesn't take into account profit taking from US corporations. Big numbers. Corruptorations run our House and Senate, their tentacles run deep. We are hopelessly divided in the US as a people. Coincidence or well planned by those in power?


1. Capitalism is the production of surplus value; capital
2. Surplus value (capital) can only exist when living labour is employed
3. Capitals utilize living labour that produces inefficient goods because the cost/value of labor is extremely low.
4. The state is the capitalist, and Wall St is it's arm. Not the other way around. The state unproductively consumes labour time (unproductive over accumulated capital) for full employment.
5. The process of the fascist state seeking full employment causes ecological collapse and societal psychosocial stress because in order to maintain full employment new industries and capital (ie new industrial development, military consumption, luxury goods) harms the environment. This is capital that the working class cannot consume thus contributing to low levels of productivity and inefficiency.

The best way out of the capitalist crisis - environmental, socio-economic, and climate change is to reduce hours of labour.

We have had the 40 hour work week since before 1900 and most of our commodities now are produced via automation.

*Reducing hours of labour would stop unproductive employment of capital, stop population growth, and we'd have more efficient commodities that aren't designed to break down right away.
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:

I'm 18 and my youthful optimism is all but gone entirely.

@ColoradoBob, am I allowed to blame your generation?
Of course you are. It's a free country.

Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. - Leo Tolstoy.
Quoting 243. Xyrus2000:



It won't last much longer. It's impossible to have infinite growth on finite resources. You either establish an equilibrium that you can sustain or you consume yourself to death. Right now we're doing the latter when we should be doing the former.


Even if the working class does absolutely nothing capitalism will not last much longer because of automation of the mode of production. Capital can only exist when labour is required to produce commodities and surplus value.
Do you guys have any idea why on my forecast on wu 10 days out it has winds sustained at 14 mph. That's not normal for summertime here and none of the forecasts are predicting us to get hit by the possible tropical disturbance next week so what may be causing the winds? Just wondering, thanks.
Quoting 240. Grothar:



At one point it disappears completely, only to be replaced by putting your faith in hurricane models.


Lol. I just read DSR's and Bob's posts. I read everything backwards. :) Thought about it. Can't remember ever being an optimist? But have never been a pessimist? Then, no maybe it was lack of faith that plagued me? I can't ever remember taking anyone's word for anything. My parents and teachers sooo enjoyed that! Of course it may have been that I found the stash one year in December. Lol. Of the toy sort, that is. :) Or maybe, wait. What was my point again...
Quoting 245. JohnLonergan:




I hate the use of the terms "pause" or "hiatus", statistically it's nothing but noise in the data due to natural vaiations, notably ENSO, volcanoes, and aerosols.

Yep, and it's over. I'll post this in graphical form this time.

BEST temperature trend, 1999-present:
Quoting 216. Webberweather53:



I don't think you understand the difference between weekly & the tri-monthly data & are getting a false sense of hope that this NINO will challenge 1997-98 based on an apples-oranges comparison. 1997's tri-monthly peak was around +2.25C, however, in the weekly values under OISSTv2, 1997-98 peaked at +2.8C in late November 1997. This year's tri-monthly numbers are running around +7.-.75C, and we have an extremely long ways to go if we intend on staying ahead of 1997-98, much less the other strong El Ninos in the historical record. MAM's ONI tri-monthly anomaly of +0.68C in ERSSTv4 was hardly remarkable, only being 21st highest on record. Against El Ninos only (in bold), this year (italicized) is 11th highest. Meh.

MAM 1878 +1.96 C
MAM 1941 +1.29 C
MAM 1905 +1.28 C
MAM 1983 +1.22 C
MAM 1889 +1.18 C
MAM 1992 +1.18 C
MAM 1900 +1.13 C
MAM 1912 +1.03 C
MAM 1915 +1.00 C
MAM 1987 +0.99 C
MAM 1926 +0.95 C
MAM 1940 +0.95 C
MAM 1998 +0.95 C
MAM 1877 +0.85 C
MAM 1958 +0.82 C
MAM 1931 +0.80 C
MAM 1888 +0.75 C
MAM 1969 +0.72 C
MAM 1993 +0.70 C
MAM 1914 +0.69 C
MAM 2015 +0.68 C


Here in Cali hope it's a strong el nino and it pours all fall and winter!
Quoting 217. beell:



A growing problem in the field, no doubt.


I saw what you did there.
Quoting 223. sar2401:

I've read that quote before. Keynes was describing a full employment scheme based on something silly, almost like the Fed would create money out of nothing and then buy government bonds with this newly created money to give the illusion of prosperity. That could never happen, of course.

I'm not foolish enough to believe an army of pollyana stockholders and customers will assualt the penthouse floors of corporations to bring about a utopian revolution. That has also been tried. The government has to pass some new regulations to promote alternative energy, and defund subsidies for carbon based industries. I hate government regulations but it's sometimes the only answer. I remember how the corporate fuel economy standards and all the pollution control equipment on cars were going to kill off the economy. That didn't happen, and regulations that show some return in terms of trading some profit for a lower level of carbon use won't kill off the economy either. The key is the level of regulation and getting the most bang for the buck. At the same time, we shouldn't forget that army of customers and shareholders is pretty big, and they can be mobilized at the same time as the government getting their grubby fingers in things. :-)


Keynes thought that the state could achieve full employment by simply absorbing excess capital in the market and putting it to unproductive use. Not only did this work; it worked extremely well because national capitals figured out that they could destroy capital within competing national capitals AND excess living labour.

World war 2 was fought over which national capital would be the one to have fiscal authority and 'solve the crisis of accumulation'. Washington earned that because advanced economies in Europe and Japan were obliterated from World War 2.
FRESH air .....................

sail away enya

Link
Quoting 248. brandyn:*Reducing hours of labour would stop unproductive employment of capital, stop population growth, and we'd have more efficient commodities that aren't designed to break down right away.

I know when I'm looking for current WX conditions I always come to WU for my marxist lesson du jour.
In times of trouble but the weather fair
Lift up your souls, to change what you can bear;

It is time for me to rest my head;
If I don't go watch "Murder, She Wrote with Mrs. Grothar;
I shall soon be dead. - Grothar 2015

Have a good night everyone. Just remember to wake up every morning and think, things can get worse.
Quoting 258. redwagon:

Quoting 248. brandyn:*Reducing hours of labour would stop unproductive employment of capital, stop population growth, and we'd have more efficient commodities that aren't designed to break down right away.

I know when I'm looking for current WX conditions I always come to WU for my marxist lesson du jour.


This isn't Marxists lesson. It was related to 'climate change' and 'the environment'. Mais bonne chance.
Quoting 243. Xyrus2000:



It won't last much longer. It's impossible to have infinite growth on finite resources. You either establish an equilibrium that you can sustain or you consume yourself to death. Right now we're doing the latter when we should be doing the former.


From where I sit, all I have to do is look 60 0r 70 miles east to see what unrestrained growth did to the Massachusetts fishing industry.
Quoting 246. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 225. Astrometeor:

Read history. deep history, read the the Aztec Conquest, The Aztecs cut your chest open . Cortez came and made you a slave.


Read history

The nasty path to our fat happy lives.


I've been doing just that in earnest for about a year now. At the ripe old age of 49. Makes me grateful to live when I do. And grateful to all those who got us here. Haven't delved into the Aztec's in depth yet. But know the story. So far England, backwards of course, from Richard III, anyway, Mongolia, China, Africa, I've been reading about for a while. Yes, I'm a fiction lover. Tell me a good story and I can learn anything. Plus my nook makes it way easy to look up facts from fiction. And translate. I stumbled over the French. But Welsh!!!! Forgettaboutit! Lol. I love reading! Highly encourage everyone to give it a try. Yes, I realize that'll probably make a dent as much here as it does with my family. ;-)
Quoting 260. brandyn:
This isn't Marxists lesson. It was related to 'climate change' and 'the environment'. Mais bonne chance.

Well, ok, here's an intellectual challenge for you. Take the 25 WXUers you admire the most, along with the 25 you admire the least, strand them on an uninhabited island for two years with them having no contact and see which economic system emerges. Each member may only take 5 scientific items with them but unlimited books. No food, medicine taken, no internet, phone, satellite on the island.
225. Astrometeor

I am really sorry -. I could not stop the advance of Western Civilization . Just like my father when he crossed the Bridge at Remagen, in March 1945.

Astrometeor

Read deep history. Read all your deep history first.
Quoting 263. redwagon:

Quoting 260. brandyn:
This isn't Marxists lesson. It was related to 'climate change' and 'the environment'. Mais bonne chance.

Well, ok, here's an intellectual challenge for you. Take the 25 WXUers you admire the most, along with the 25 you admire the least, strand them on an uninhabited island for two years with them having no contact and see which economic system emerges. Each member may only take 5 scientific items with them but unlimited books. No food, medicine taken, no internet, phone, satellite on the island.


A real waste of type, and time.
Quoting 251. TCweatherman:
Do you guys have any idea why on my forecast on wu 10 days out it has winds sustained at 14 mph. That's not normal for summertime here and none of the forecasts are predicting us to get hit by the possible tropical disturbance next week so what may be causing the winds? Just wondering, thanks.
Because 10 day forecasts suck no matter where they are coming from. We have zero skill to be able to predict a peak wind speed anywhere in 10 days. Stick to five day forecasts and you'll get a lot more accurate information.
Quoting 256. brandyn:


Keynes thought that the state could achieve full employment by simply absorbing excess capital in the market and putting it to unproductive use. Not only did this work; it worked extremely well because national capitals figured out that they could destroy capital within competing national capitals AND excess living labour.

World war 2 was fought over which national capital would be the one to have fiscal authority and 'solve the crisis of accumulation'. Washington earned that because advanced economies in Europe and Japan were obliterated from World War 2.
I have no clue what you're talking about. Regardless of what any economist droned on about, we were the leading economy in 1946 because we were the last ones standing. Washington didn't earn anything. We were lucky. Our luck is starting to run out, and someone else will inevitably take over the lead. 100 years is about how long any empire lasts.
Quoting 263. redwagon:

Quoting 260. brandyn:
This isn't Marxists lesson. It was related to 'climate change' and 'the environment'. Mais bonne chance.

Well, ok, here's an intellectual challenge for you. Take the 25 WXUers you admire the most, along with the 25 you admire the least, strand them on an uninhabited island for two years with them having no contact and see which economic system emerges. Each member may only take 5 scientific items with them but unlimited books. No food, medicine taken, no internet, phone, satellite on the island.


Hold on, I gotta practice my stabbing.



Quoting 243. Xyrus2000:


It won't last much longer. It's impossible to have infinite growth on finite resources. You either establish an equilibrium that you can sustain or you consume yourself to death. Right now we're doing the latter when we should be doing the former.
It may very well not last much longer, but that is the fate of all governmental and economic systems. I fervently hope we can get to equalibrium without a major societial change. Whether that can happen is something I can't know. As someone once said, the future is going to be different because we've never been there before.
Saw the first tornado of my life a couple hours ago. Just North of longmont, co. It was about 5 miles from my home. The sheriff indicates 20 to 25 homes damaged or destroyed. The line set up about 1 to 2 miles north of my home and just stayed there. Continuous lighting has been going for the last 3 hours.

Heavy rain in near Lyons, CO with reports of 5 inches of hail and rain of 4". The fire department in Lyons was staging swift water rescue. Scatered reports of flood rescue but does not sound too out of control yet.

One of the craziest storms I have ever seen. The fact that it set there for hours with a clear view in front of me was nuts.

I am going to go watch more lighting. I'll post an update if anything crazy happens.

I have a picture of the tornado but don't see how you can post from pics in your phone.
Quoting 268. Naga5000:


Hold on, I gotta practice my stabbing.



I'm taking my AK-47 and 100 rounds of ammo. When it's over, I get everything everyone else brought with them, especially if they all just bring knives. It would be quite a bloody affair on fantasy island.
Quoting 264. ColoradoBob1:

225. Astrometeor

I am really sorry -. I could not stop the advance of Western Civilization . Just like my father when he crossed the Bridge at Remagen, in March 1945.

Astrometeor

Read deep history. Read all your deep history first.


Citizen Soldiers by Ambrose , quite amazingly covers the bridge crossing, at Remagen. The brutal taking of the beaches, the push to liberate Western Europe. The hedge rows and our push into Germany, but not before the Bulge. Imagine, next time your in a forest, two hundred yards away the most lethal weapons the world has ever produced are in the hands of a brutal enemy. Now fight and repeat through the coldest winter in 100 years. And then if you survive that, can you survive Iwo Jima and our crushing of the Jap's fleet and retaking of islands? Estimates were grip at the cost to take Japan mainlands before the bombs were dropped to end the war.
Nothing terribly impressive, but NWS/ILM released their report on the EF-1 that touched down a 45 minute drive or so west of my location, some debris was located 20,000 ft up. Link



Quoting 217. beell:



A growing problem in the field, no doubt.


I'm ashamed how long it took for me to get that...a Saguaro grew an arm somewhere before I figured it out.

Quoting 221. TCweatherman:

First yes I am 13 and I am quite optimistic and secondly I didn't need to know that second part haha.


I was 22 when I created my account and assumed I would be in diapers compared to the rest of the community...definitely have learned more from younger members here than I've taught them anything for certain.
Quoting 271. ndscott50:
Saw the first tornado of my life a couple hours ago. Just North of longmont, co. It was about 5 miles from my home. The sheriff indicates 20 to 25 homes damaged or destroyed. The line set up about 1 to 2 miles north of my home and just stayed there. Continuous lighting has been going for the last 3 hours.

Heavy rain in near Lyons, CO with reports of 5 inches of hail and rain of 4". The fire department in Lyons was staging swift water rescue. Scatered reports of flood rescue but does not sound too out of control yet.

One of the craziest storms I have ever seen. The fact that it set there for hours with a clear view in front of me was nuts.

I am going to go watch more lighting. I'll post an update if anything crazy happens.

I have a picture of the tornado but don't see how you can post from pics in your phone.
If You're on FB, you can post it there and then post it here. Any picture has to be on the net somewhere first.

My son used to live in Boulder, and I've seen some pretty amazing storms. Almost the most lightning I've ever seen was when a storm parked over the Front Range for hours and did the same kind of thing you're seeing. I think there was a tornado out of that storm as well. Weather can get crazy out there.
Quoting 249. BaltimoreBrian:

Of course you are. It's a free country.

Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. - Leo Tolstoy.


Where do I go to pick up my free country? Or is it a 1-800 number?
Quoting 274. win1gamegiantsplease:

Nothing terribly impressive, but NWS/ILM released their report on the EF-1 that touched down a 45 minute drive or so west of my location, some debris was located 20,000 ft up. Link





I'm ashamed how long it took for me to get that...a Saguaro grew an arm somewhere before I figured it out.



I was 22 when I created my account and assumed I would be in diapers compared to the rest of the community...definitely have learned more from younger members here than I've taught them anything for certain.


I wasn't 22 but me too. :)
Quoting 268. Naga5000:
Hold on, I gotta practice my stabbing.

So one of your 5 items you bring will be a knife, rather than an item that could be used
to actually manufacture knives?
Quoting 276. Astrometeor:



Where do I go to pick up my free country? Or is it a 1-800 number?
;)
Quoting 235. Naga5000:


Yeah I can dig that interpretation, my point was that we can certainly spur profit by massive investment in new infrastructure, new energy creation, and an updated grid to store and get that energy where it is needed with little change in growth and maybe even a net positive. Again, and I admit the policy discussion is where politics come into play in climate science, this is only one solution obviously on the government spending to spur growth side of the debate. Or I have a quarter acre of land and some old banknotes, you supply the bottles.
Yes, much as it pains some of my right wing friends, there will ned to be some form of government incentives and regulations to get us off carbon based energy. In discussing this with them, I like to use WWII as an example. The government didn't take over the entire economy, but they regulated it to produce the desired outcome - beat our enemies. Things that were done in WWII would bring howls of protests from both the left and right wing, since we did everything from tell you how much gas you could have to rounding up 100,000 Japanese, many of them citizens, and putting them in concentration camps. I'm hoping we can avoid the concentration camps this time but an effort to really change the direction of our economy will take an effort akin to war. I've never seen a war that had less government regulations that what was in place before the war. It will be up to us when we say the regulations are needed and when to call a halt.
Quoting 272. sar2401:

I'm taking my AK-47 and 100 rounds of ammo. When it's over, I get everything everyone else brought with them, especially if they all just bring knives. It would be quite a bloody affair on fantasy island.


Quoting 276. Astrometeor:


Where do I go to pick up my free country? Or is it a 1-800 number?
Astro, you are lucky enough to be living in a country that allows you to have freedom of expression never known before in the history of mankind. The fact you can post here is just one indicator of that. Take hope, my friend, all is not a dark tunnel ahead.
Rain relief needed!!!!!
Quoting 275. sar2401:

If You're on FB, you can post it there and then post it here. Any picture has to be on the net somewhere first.

My son used to live in Boulder, and I've seen some pretty amazing storms. Almost the most lightning I've ever seen was when a storm parked over the Front Range for hours and did the same kind of thing you're seeing. I think there was a tornado out of that storm as well. Weather can get crazy out there.

The crazy thing was that the tornado was about 5 miles from the base of the foothills and moving west. Most Colorado tornados are at least 30 miles east of the mountains. It's proximity to the mountains is rare. Intense lighting and thunder continues. The flash flood threat is also a growing concern.
Quoting 281. BaltimoreBrian:


Yes, Fantasy Island can sometimes have unexpected outcomes, especially if you're a little stinkbug. :-)
Quoting 284. ndscott50:

The crazy thing was that the tornado was about 5 miles from the base of the foothills and moving west. Most Colorado tornados are at least 30 miles east of the mountains. It's proximity to the mountains is rare. Intense lighting and thunder continues. The flash flood threat is also a growing concern.
Wait. It was moving west, toward the mountains? That is rare. All the tornadoes I've ever heard of there come off the Front Range and move east toward Denver. It does look like there's not much movement to those storms. Have you seen hail? An observer in Boulder reported hail fell for an hour, with some as big as tennis balls! Elway's going to have a big hail sale next week.
Quoting 283. wadadlian:
Rain relief needed!!!!!
Too much, or not enough?
Quoting 282. sar2401:

Astro, you are lucky enough to be living in a country that allows you to have freedom of expression never known before in the history of mankind. The fact you can post here is just one indicator of that. Take hope, my friend, all is not a dark tunnel ahead.


China doesn't even let you use YouTube...that's basically half of my internet usage, the other half primarily consisting of email, weather-related sites, and the golf game on my phone.
Quoting 254. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Here in Cali hope it's a strong el nino and it pours all fall and winter!
Have you been there for the big floods, Joe? You might be screaming for mercy come February. :-)
new tropical wave just came off Africa making this our 5th tropical wave for the season
well the tropical wave train is in full swing

currently 4 tropical wave are current in the atlantic basin
one just now crossing into the E Caribbean and two more in the atlantic as well as the recent one just off the African coast
Quoting 267. sar2401:

I have no clue what you're talking about. Regardless of what any economist droned on about, we were the leading economy in 1946 because we were the last ones standing. Washington didn't earn anything. We were lucky. Our luck is starting to run out, and someone else will inevitably take over the lead. 100 years is about how long any empire lasts.


This is exactly as I am stating. Washington was the last national capital standing. But I do doubt that someone else will take over the lead.
Quoting 263. redwagon:

Quoting 260. brandyn:
This isn't Marxists lesson. It was related to 'climate change' and 'the environment'. Mais bonne chance.

Well, ok, here's an intellectual challenge for you. Take the 25 WXUers you admire the most, along with the 25 you admire the least, strand them on an uninhabited island for two years with them having no contact and see which economic system emerges. Each member may only take 5 scientific items with them but unlimited books. No food, medicine taken, no internet, phone, satellite on the island.


This doesn't make any sense. You are asserting that the material conditions of society are already established elsewhere. If anyone is trapped on an 'unihabited' island it's likely that is lacks resources. LOL

Quoting 289. sar2401:

Have you been there for the big floods, Joe? You might be screaming for mercy come February. :-)


Reservoirs will be very low by next winter, so they can take a lot. I would be worried about mudslides though.
Quoting 286. sar2401:

Wait. It was moving west, toward the mountains? That is rare. All the tornadoes I've ever heard of there come off the Front Range and move east toward Denver. It does look like there's not much movement to those storms. Have you seen hail? An observer in Boulder reported hail fell for an hour, with some as big as tennis balls! Elway's going to have a big hail sale next week.


Tons of hail within a mile or two of me but nothing in my location. The storm basically stayed in the same place a few miles away from me. Lucky for me but not lucky for people in Lyons and north longmont

Regarding the western motion I watched it move west and essentially evaporate into a wall of precipitation that was completely blocking my view of the mountains
Quoting 292. brandyn:

This is exactly as I am stating. Washington was the last national capital standing. But I do doubt that someone else will take over the lead.

Did they perchance teach you in school exactly HOW DC was the last capitol standing?
Quoting 294. nwobilderburg:


Reservoirs will be very low by next winter, so they can take a lot. I would be worried about mudslides though.
If this El Nino really is strong, you will be amazed at how fast those reservoirs can fill. What looked like no problem in Novemeber had me in a boat during several of our floods. Lake Sonoma, which is pretty huge, went from only about 20% full to coming near overtopping in just one month. Mudslides are always going to happen with heavy rains. I just hope you don't get a repeat of 1986 or 1995.
Quoting 293. brandyn:This doesn't make any sense. You are asserting that the material conditions of society are already established elsewhere. If anyone is trapped on an 'unihabited' island it's likely that is lacks resources. LOL

Lol at you. I'm asking you to do a simple mental exercise to determine which economic system is
most natural to mankind. If you can't, then stop bringing economic 'lessons' to our WEATHER blog.
Quoting 295. ndscott50:


Tons of hail within a mile or two of me but nothing in my location. The storm basically stayed in the same place a few miles away from me. Lucky for me but not lucky for people in Lyons and north longmont

Regarding the western motion I watched it move west and essentially evaporate into a wall of precipitation that was completely blocking my view of the mountains
Hmm. I wonder if that was some kind of short-term motion. I've been reading back over the warnings and they all state storms were moving east or south. It looks like the storms are finally moving away from the Denver metro area and most of the flood warnings have expired. At least it doesn't seem like a repeat of Thompson Canyon this time.
Quoting 298. redwagon:

Quoting 293. brandyn:This doesn't make any sense. You are asserting that the material conditions of society are already established elsewhere. If anyone is trapped on an 'unihabited' island it's likely that is lacks resources. LOL

Lol at you. I'm asking you to do a simple mental exercise to determine which economic system is
most natural to mankind. If you can't, then stop bringing economic 'lessons' to our WEATHER blog.


I don't know how to respond to your truncated frame of reference, sorry. I am also not going to feed you stuff for confirmation bias. If you want a legitimate response, I can send you a private message.

This was previously the topic in the comments before I commented. Perhaps the topic should shift back to the tropics.

EDIT: Corrected grammar.
Quoting 294. nwobilderburg:



Reservoirs will be very low by next winter, so they can take a lot. I would be worried about mudslides though.


How about this storm?

40 Days and 40 Nights: California Megaflood
Quoting 301. Astrometeor:

How about this storm?

40 Days and 40 Nights: California Megaflood
Estimated flooding from a repeat:



From weatherhistorian's blog
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY DENVER COLORADO
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1004 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY DENVER COLORADO.

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHEAST BOULDER AND SOUTHEAST LARIMER
COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY. PERSONS LIVING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST BOULDER FROM EAST OF LYONS TO THE WELD COUNTY LINE NORTH
OF LONGMONT INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU
ARE FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION
ORDER.

AT 956 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN EAST OF LYONS. THE RAIN IS
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 7 TO 8 INCHES MAY HAVE
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

Well this is some crazy stuff happening up the road from me. It would be nice if the stream gauges would update more frequently then every hour
Quoting 292. brandyn:


This is exactly as I am stating. Washington was the last national capital standing. But I do doubt that someone else will take over the lead.
Are you from the United States? It appears from your writing style you're not. The people of the US have never looked at Washington as standing for the whole country. It was the whole country that was left standing. The country is made up of people who not only helped to win the biggest war in mankind's history but also contributed to the largest expansion of health, education, and general prosperity the world has ever known. The system was flawed then and is flawed now but, if I had to pick a time to be born and a place to be born, it would be in the United States during the time I have already lived. With all the problems we have, I'm still very lucky to be living today.
Quoting 303. ndscott50:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY DENVER COLORADO
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1004 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY DENVER COLORADO.

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHEAST BOULDER AND SOUTHEAST LARIMER
COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY. PERSONS LIVING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST BOULDER FROM EAST OF LYONS TO THE WELD COUNTY LINE NORTH
OF LONGMONT INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU
ARE FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION
ORDER.

AT 956 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN EAST OF LYONS. THE RAIN IS
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 7 TO 8 INCHES MAY HAVE
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

Well this is some crazy stuff happening up the road from me. It would be nice if the stream gauges would update more frequently then every hour
It would also be nice if they delineated the actual areas with flooding rather than just telling people from parts of three counties to get to higher ground.
OK, here's something I can post with very little controversy and and I can say with no chance of successful contradiction -

There won't be a tropical storm in Florida or the Bahamas this weekend. :-)
Living here in SW FL, 3 day forecasts are as far as I would go!


Quoting 266. sar2401:

Because 10 day forecasts suck no matter where they are coming from. We have zero skill to be able to predict a peak wind speed anywhere in 10 days. Stick to five day forecasts and you'll get a lot more accurate information.
Quoting 300. brandyn:


I don't know how to respond to your truncated frame of reference, sorry. I am also not going to feed you stuff for confirmation bias. If you want a legitimate response, I can send you a private message.

This was previously the topic in the comments before I commented. Perhaps the topic should shift back to the tropics.

EDIT: Corrected grammar.
I don't know if you're male or female, but did you play with any toys as a child? You know, dolls or trains or soldiers, something like that, where you had to use your imagination? It seems like that's a hard concept for you.
Quoting 304. sar2401:

Are you from the United States? It appears from your writing style you're not. The people of the US have never looked at Washington as standing for the whole country. It was the whole country that was left standing. The country is made up of people who not only helped to win the biggest war in mankind's history but also contributed to the largest expansion of health, education, and general prosperity the world has ever known. The system was flawed then and is flawed now but, if I had to pick a time to be born and a place to be born, it would be in the United States during the time I have already lived. With all the problems we have, I'm still very lucky to be living today.


The aim of the 'system' is 100% unemployment, which is quite awesome! :)

Back to weather :)
Quoting 301. Astrometeor:


How about this storm?

40 Days and 40 Nights: California Megaflood
This is the kind of storm I wonder about. 154 years ago now and we've never had close to a repeat since then. Part of it was there was no flood control structures of any kind in the state. The Sacramento Valley and Central Valley would still flood pretty regularly without them now. Still, that was a crapload of rain. Was it something like what happened in Texas and Oklahoma this May? Was it kind of one off thing we won't see for another thousand years? I wonder what storms we have waiting for us in places where weather records go back for less than 154 years.
Quoting 245. JohnLonergan:




I hate the use of the terms "pause" or "hiatus", statistically it's nothing but noise in the data due to natural vaiations, notably ENSO, volcanoes, and aerosols. Tamino shows this in the following images.

(snip)


As Tamino wrote, It%u2019s the Trend, Stupid


Hey, John (or anyone) - I've got a very basic question, that I'm sure has a very simple answer...

Why, when these graphs are plotted, does 2014 not plot higher than 1998? Again, I'm sure the answer is a simple one, but I'm a bit stumped.

Edit/add on - in looking at this again, maybe it does plot higher, or at the same point on the y-axis...it's like it's unintended 'optical trickery' :/
Quoting 308. sar2401:

I don't know if you're male or female, but did you play with any toys as a child? You know, dolls or trains or soldiers, something like that, where you had to use your imagination? It seems like that's a hard concept for you.


That sounds like projection, no? Why else would you ask a loaded/rhetorical question to me? I will not respond to this because I sense it's more directed at yourself than me. You may go elsewhere if you want to ask personal questions as such; to a site like GLP.
:-{

Quoting 306. sar2401:

OK, here's something I can post with very little controversy and and I can say with no chance of successful contradiction -

There won't be a tropical storm in Florida or the Bahamas this weekend. :-)
Quoting 305. sar2401:

It would also be nice if they delineated the actual areas with flooding rather than just telling people from parts of three counties to get to higher ground.


I know. I am downstream near the St Vrain so I was trying to figure our were the big water is going. The fact that I am trying to look at google maps to figure out the drainages is silly. It looks like the largest rains may have fallen in the little Thompson drainage. They runs near Berthoud and then down to Millikin.

I did just hear on the scanner that Terry Lake would overflow soon. That is a small plains reservoir between Longmont and Lyons. It drains into the St Vrain but they indicated only one residence should be evacuated so I guess its not a big deal. When I look at the map that appears to drain into a bunch of neighborhoods but the lack of concern on the scanner seems to imply limited flooding. We will see
Quoting 309. brandyn:


The aim of the 'system' is 100% unemployment, which is quite awesome! :)

Back to weather :)
I see, no answer to my question. That tells me what I need to know. I wonder what dismal system you've seen with the aim of 100% unemployment? Sometimes one can spend way too much time in books and not enough out in the real world. And it's really not playing fair to stir the pot and then take your ball and go home.
00Z GFS
much further E with development
now form and develops a TS in the extreme NW Caribbean/GOH area the crosses NWwards across the Yucatan and continues in the GOM developing and looks like it makes landfall near S central Texas near Galveston Island

00Z CMC/GEM
doesn't bother with the Epac-BOC or GOH crossover keeps low meandering in the Epac BUT
does develop a new TS altogether in the W Caribbean moves it NWwards towards the NE Yucatan then GOM then turns NE and makes landfall in Alabama and before that nearly hitting the extreme SE Louisiana


still awaiting

00Z NAVGEM
00Z EURO
Blanca has developed heavy convection on the eastern semi-circle of the storm. The appearance of the storm has improved, but a distinct inner eyewall is lacking. -
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS
much further E with development
now form and develops a TS in the extreme NW Caribbean/GOH area the crosses NWwards across the Yucatan and continues in the GOM developing and looks like it makes landfall near S central Texas near Galveston Island

00Z CMC/GEM
doesn't bother with the Epac-BOC or GOH crossover keeps low meandering in the Epac BUT
does develop a new TS altogether in the W Caribbean moves it NWwards towards the NE Yucatan then GOM then turns NE and makes landfall in Alabama and before that nearly hitting the extreme SE Louisiana


still awaiting

00Z NAVGEM
00Z EURO

also 00Z ENSEMBLES
Quoting 315. sar2401:

I see, no answer to my question. That tells me what I need to know. I wonder what dismal system you've seen with the aim of 100% unemployment? Sometimes one can spend way too much time in books and not enough out in the real world. And it's really not playing fair to stir the pot and then take your ball and go home.

Link
well either Blanca eye is tightening or collapsing

Quoting 302. BaltimoreBrian:



Estimated flooding from a repeat:




That might refill the San Joaquin valley aquifer! We need that to happen also. Rainfall from the fall til Jan-Feb and then combine with cold systems to bury the Sierras et al mountain ranges in snow and have a long slow melt in spring and summer to finish off filling the water storage reservoirs would be perfect timing scenario.
Quoting 314. ndscott50:


I know. I am downstream near the St Vrain so I was trying to figure our were the big water is going. The fact that I am trying to look at google maps to figure out the drainages is silly. It looks like the largest rains may have fallen in the little Thompson drainage. They runs near Berthoud and then down to Millikin.

I did just hear on the scanner that Terry Lake would overflow soon. That is a small plains reservoir between Longmont and Lyons. It drains into the St Vrain but they indicated only one residence should be evacuated so I guess its not a big deal. When I look at the map that appears to drain into a bunch of neighborhoods but the lack of concern on the scanner seems to imply limited flooding. We will see
I used to do things like issue warnings from our emergency management agency, and that's one I never would have let out of my shop, especially since the NWS was cancelling areal and flash flood warnings within minutes of that CEM going out. There is no point in issuing a warning without specific actionable information for the public. At least you live in an area where the public safety systems are still mostly conventional and not digital or encrypted, so you can get information from the scanner. That should not be the preferred way for the public to gain information about fleeing and climbing the nearest hill however.
Quoting 320. wunderkidcayman:

well either Blanca eye is tightening or collapsing


rebuilding but time is short
Quoting 321. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That might refill the San Joaquin valley aquifer! We need that to happen also. Rainfall from the fall til Jan-Feb and then combine with cold systems to bury the Sierras et al mountain ranges in snow and have a long slow melt in spring and summer to finish off filling the water storage reservoirs would be perfect timing scenario.
but what if we got an 80 day storm twice as long twice as much
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS
much further E with development
now form and develops a TS in the extreme NW Caribbean/GOH area the crosses NWwards across the Yucatan and continues in the GOM developing and looks like it makes landfall near S central Texas near Galveston Island

00Z CMC/GEM
doesn't bother with the Epac-BOC or GOH crossover keeps low meandering in the Epac BUT
does develop a new TS altogether in the W Caribbean moves it NWwards towards the NE Yucatan then GOM then turns NE and makes landfall in Alabama and before that nearly hitting the extreme SE Louisiana


still awaiting

00Z NAVGEM
00Z EURO
Quoting 318. wunderkidcayman:


also 00Z ENSEMBLES


also previous runs of the GFDL and HWRF had show development of the same system
lets see if the 00Z runs show it as well
Quoting 319. brandyn:

Link
And that tells me what? Other than the fact the average annual hours an employee works from year to year fluctuates and, in some countries, fluctuates more than other countries, that is. If that's your ammunition for anyone headed for 100% unemployment, you're going to need a bigger cannon.
Quoting 324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but what if we got an 80 day storm twice as long twice as much
The flooding would extend all the way to your street in that case.
02E/H/B/C2
Quoting 325. wunderkidcayman:


also previous runs of the GFDL and HWRF had show development of the same system
lets see if the 00Z runs show it as well
Oh boy.

Out with the old and in with the new...
Quoting 327. sar2401:

The flooding would extend all the way to your street in that case.

could start raining on oct 25/15 till jan 15/16
it would be ice by then or a whole lot of snow
who knows
Quoting 312. brandyn:


That sounds like projection, no? Why else would you ask a loaded/rhetorical question to me? I will not respond to this because I sense it's more directed at yourself than me. You may go elsewhere if you want to ask personal questions as such; to a site like GLP.
Well, no, it just seems to me you have a difficult time using your imagination about what might happen to people put on a desert island. It's certainly not directed at me since I can easily imagine something like that because...well, it's imaginary. It's a pretty common literary theme, and most people don't have a problem understanding that it has nothing to do with an inventory of societial resources to play.

EDIT: And what is GLP? Would I be allowed to ask other people if they played with toys as a child there?
Quoting 330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could start raining on oct 25/15 till jan 15/16
it would be ice by then or a whole lot of snow
who knows
No, global warming would have taken care of the snow problem by then. You would need a whole flock of sump pumps for the garage though.
Quoting 289. sar2401:

Have you been there for the big floods, Joe? You might be screaming for mercy come February. :-)


I remember some BAD flooding in Jan Feb March 1993 all the mountain creeks flooded, Highway 79 in Riverside/San Diego county lost both lanes in places and the mountain creeks, normally dry, ran til August of that summer! Some will suffer losses for sure but normal/average rain from winter will do nothing to help. I hope it can rain at safe rates over the fall and winter to avoid damage.......but that is asking a lot from what I have seen from El Ninos. I usually comes down in buckets and quick and continuous or we get a lot of snow and then pineapple express jet stream aims right for the central/Nor Cal coast and melts a lot of it quickly with massive runoff. I wish it would come down 1" a week for 6 months in Soo Cal and 2" a week for Nor Cal to avoid flooding issues somewhat........but that is not the usual way. I wish no one to suffer flooding.
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS
much further E with development
now form and develops a TS in the extreme NW Caribbean/GOH area the crosses NWwards across the Yucatan and continues in the GOM developing and looks like it makes landfall near S central Texas near Galveston Island

00Z CMC/GEM
doesn't bother with the Epac-BOC or GOH crossover keeps low meandering in the Epac BUT
does develop a new TS altogether in the W Caribbean moves it NWwards towards the NE Yucatan then GOM then turns NE and makes landfall in Alabama and before that nearly hitting the extreme SE Louisiana


still awaiting

00Z NAVGEM
00Z EURO


Good gravy! Just saw the GFS. Approaches lower Texas coast roughly same time frame as last run. Crawls the coast offshore. Makes landfall between Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Then crawls the coast onshore to HERE. TX/LA then seems to spin some of its energy up into east Texas.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologists. Just a hobbyist. All this I mentioned, is long range on a storm that does not exist and maybe never will. The models have been showing differing scenarios on it for days. And it may disappear from the models next run. If you are unfamiliar with the models, Models are still not very accurate 10 day range. But I do see some merit in keeping an eye on them if you live anywhere a storm may strike. Anyway, no need to panic. Just like every year be aware and be prepared.

Quoting 332. sar2401:

No, global warming would have taken care of the snow problem by then. You would need a whole flock of sump pumps for the garage though.


A good sump pump is like gold in flooding.
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS
much further E with development
now form and develops a TS in the extreme NW Caribbean/GOH area the crosses NWwards across the Yucatan and continues in the GOM developing and looks like it makes landfall near S central Texas near Galveston Island

00Z CMC/GEM
doesn't bother with the Epac-BOC or GOH crossover keeps low meandering in the Epac BUT
does develop a new TS altogether in the W Caribbean moves it NWwards towards the NE Yucatan then GOM then turns NE and makes landfall in Alabama and before that nearly hitting the extreme SE Louisiana


still awaiting

00Z NAVGEM
00Z EURO
Quoting 318. wunderkidcayman:


also 00Z ENSEMBLES


ok so far the 00Z ENSEMBLES basically agrees with 00Z Operational GFS

staill waiting for
00Z NAVGEM
00Z EURO
00Z GFDL
00Z HWRF
Quoting 321. HurricaneHunterJoe:

That might refill the San Joaquin valley aquifer! We need that to happen also. Rainfall from the fall til Jan-Feb and then combine with cold systems to bury the Sierras et al mountain ranges in snow and have a long slow melt in spring and summer to finish off filling the water storage reservoirs would be perfect timing scenario.

66" in Los Angeles in the rainy season of 1861-1862. Perhaps that would be enough.
Quoting 337. BaltimoreBrian:



66" in Los Angeles in the rainy season of 1861-1862. Perhaps that would be enough.


WOW! I think you might be right.
Quoting 320. wunderkidcayman:

well either Blanca eye is tightening or collapsing

I vote for tightening a little.
Quoting 339. BaltimoreBrian:


I vote for tightening a little.


I would tend to agree.


I don't make even 24hr predictions. Humberto was quite a ride. Lol.
Blanca appears to be re-intensifying. UW-CIMSS ADT has risen from its minimum of T4.4/74.6kt around the 21z advisory to T5.2/94.8kt now.

Quoting 332. sar2401:

No, global warming would have taken care of the snow problem by then. You would need a whole flock of sump pumps for the garage though.
I got 5 sumps in building and 3 indoor storm drains inside underground 6 drains on outside property
Quoting 342. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Blanca appears to be re-intensifying. UW-CIMSS ADT has risen from its minimum of T4.4/74.6kt around the 21z advisory to T5.2/94.8kt now.


running out of time but ya its a rebuild phase
HU 02E.BLANCA 12 hr 06/05/2015 12:00 14.70 253.30 43.77 ??? 29.13
HU 02E.BLANCA 24 hr 06/06/2015 00:00 16.20 251.90 46.35 ??? 28.10
HU 02E.BLANCA 36 hr 06/06/2015 12:00 17.70 250.80 46.35 ??? 26.35
HU 02E.BLANCA 48 hr 06/07/2015 00:00 19.20 250.10 41.20 ??? 26.10
HU 02E.BLANCA 72 hr 06/08/2015 00:00 22.50 249.10 28.32 ??? 22.02

Quoting 334. AtHomeInTX:


Good gravy! Just saw the GFS. Approaches lower Texas coast roughly same time frame as last run. Crawls the coast offshore. Makes landfall between Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Then crawls the coast onshore to HERE. TX/LA then seems to spin some of its energy up into east Texas.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologists. Just a hobbyist. All this I mentioned, is long range on a storm that does not exist and maybe never will. The models have been showing differing scenarios on it for days. And it may disappear from the models next run. If you are unfamiliar with the models, Models are still not very accurate 10 day range. But I do see some merit in keeping an eye on them if you live anywhere a storm may strike. Anyway, no need to panic. Just like every year be aware and be prepared.

The ECMWF had landfall in Alabama!!! But then it moved over your way the next run. Darn! I don't know what it will do this run. The whole thing kind of makes me dizzy. I figure by a week from Sunday we should know if it's going to be plowing it's way up through the Heart of Dixie or tearing up your house. Until then, I'm going to party like it's 1999! :-)
Quoting 343. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I got 5 sumps in building and 3 indoor storm drains inside underground 6 drains on outside property
Won't be anywhere near enough when all the water from California arrives. The state is going to be pumping out all the valleys and sending it your way.
Quoting 346. sar2401:

The ECMWF had landfall in Alabama!!! But then it moved over your way the next run. Darn! I don't know what it will do this run. The whole thing kind of makes me dizzy. I figure by a week from Sunday we should know if it's going to be plowing it's way up through the Heart of Dixie or tearing up your house. Until then, I'm going to party like it's 1999! :-)


Couldn't agree more SAR. :) Guess this is just one of the ways I prepare. Believe me it won't hurt my feelings if it never develops at all. Saw the projected rainfall for parts of Central America just from the blob, such as it is, in their area. Hope those totals don't play out either.
Quoting 344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

running out of time but ya its a rebuild phase

Its environment should be conducive for another 36-48 hours.
Quoting 324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

but what if we got an 80 day storm twice as long twice as much


Californians would be hating life I think..........hell, anywhere getting that much........just imagine the Mississippi drainage getting that amount......that river might be 10 miles wide and deep!
Quoting 351. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Californians would be hating life I think..........hell, anywhere getting that much........just imagine the Mississippi drainage getting that amount......that river might be 10 miles wide and deep!


Well, with only what seemed like a month of rains, it was awful here. In this whole state. Some rivers rose insanely quick out of their banks and rushed in floods downstream. Well, everyone knows. The eastern part of the state rivers ad lakes have flooded. But it moves very, very, slowly in these parts. I'd hate to see anyone get that kind of rain too. I've never seen anything like it.
00Z NAVGEM
doesn't show the Epac-BOC or NW Carib system
but show Epac getting there 3rd hurricane of the season
just like last run

awaiting
00Z EURO
Anyone think Blanca will become a major hurricane again before reaching cooler waters? I think she'll re-intensify to 115-120 kts.
Quoting 344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

running out of time but ya its a rebuild phase
And a good size hurricane....for the Eastern Pacific anyway....I believe they have gotten larger over the past ten years or so on average..I,m usta seeing the small canes that pack a serious wallop..:)
Quoting 356. Huracan94:

Anyone think Blanca will become a major hurricane again before reaching cooler waters? I think she'll re-intensify to 115-120 kts.
Absolutely.....Blanca will reorganize and become a formidable Cat-4..jmo.....if not, I deep fry my crow so its crunchy
Quoting 302. BaltimoreBrian:

Estimated flooding from a repeat:



From weatherhistorian's blog

I did some touch ups to show 80 days of rain



J/K
not an official depiction
Quoting 358. hydrus:

Absolutely.....Blanca will reorganize and become a formidable Cat-4..jmo.....if not, I deep fry my crow so its crunchy
do you really think it will it could I guess but not for long
GFS ensemble individual members, all over the map still. From Mexico to Florida.
Well EURO and GFS operationals pretty much the same. EURO faster and by different route.

Quoting 333. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I remember some BAD flooding in Jan Feb March 1993 all the mountain creeks flooded, Highway 79 in Riverside/San Diego county lost both lanes in places and the mountain creeks, normally dry, ran til August of that summer! Some will suffer losses for sure but normal/average rain from winter will do nothing to help. I hope it can rain at safe rates over the fall and winter to avoid damage.......but that is asking a lot from what I have seen from El Ninos. I usually comes down in buckets and quick and continuous or we get a lot of snow and then pineapple express jet stream aims right for the central/Nor Cal coast and melts a lot of it quickly with massive runoff. I wish it would come down 1" a week for 6 months in Soo Cal and 2" a week for Nor Cal to avoid flooding issues somewhat........but that is not the usual way. I wish no one to suffer flooding.


A series of cold storms coming down from the arctic will be better for lack of flooding than tropical moisture plume events. The storms we had in December 2014 caused a ton of rain, but didn't really lead to that much snowfall.
Quoting 362. AtHomeInTX:

Well EURO and GFS operationals pretty much the same. EURO faster and by different route.


Has Bostwick mentioned this??
Quoting 364. Stormchaser121:

Has Bostwick mentioned this??


Just in passing, more of watching things because it's hurricane season, but not specifically. That I've seen anyway. Haven't seen his broadcasts a lot though.
Quoting 365. AtHomeInTX:



Just in passing, more of watching things because it's hurricane season, but not specifically. That I've seen anyway. Haven't seen his broadcasts a lot though.
I do know Kerry did, that's about all.
0Z GFS and EURO both land in about the same place in Texas,timing different.
lol
372. vis0
268/1516
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington though blending of 3 Satellite types not a public product of that University.
D&T:: on mp4
SUBJECT:: Hurricane Blanca from Blanca's start till June 4-5th 2015 midnight (nxxn as opposed to noon, watch in a month yoboi will be wondering "why its nxxn and the entire day no one (outside of yoboi's exclusive club) mentioned "cat 6""
...now if yoboi would have said "cat5+" as + for the xtra energy that cat5's MIGHT feed on, therefore use that extra energy to do all sorts of things yet unknown. Then i would've chimed in )
NOTE:: Okay who keeps poking Blanca in the eye...could it be Ana returning as an upper Low (now off the East coast) and as Ana passed Northern Alabama she picked up something sharp (like sar2401s wit) and flung it across the continent into Blanca's eye?

or

Is some poking her in the eye?, Ya know its not polite to poke a lady...old school reply:: (never type here), new school reply:: ...unless the lady is on FaceBook.
http://youtu.be/d05SSRl66dE(418x520same below)

Seems like El nino is finally getting its act together, every region is now over 1 C and the waters around Philippines have cooled significantly...the waters around Australia are still quite warm though...looking forward toward El nino daily discussion:).

leftovers.bianca?s.calif.?
6Z GFS puts the future LOW in the gulf into Mexico now...its a casper I bet.
Good Morning..



ESPI is closing in on 1997 levels. This is a very high value and very indicative of a developing Strong El-Nino.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.93
MAM ONI appears to have come in at 0.7C.

Link
Quoting 377. LargoFl:

6Z GFS puts the future LOW in the gulf into Mexico now...its a casper I bet.


This time of year the GFS should cut off at 5 days because it's accuracy past that is pretty much an F.
00z UKMET

Has the beginnings of the Gulf storm as well..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 35.1N 73.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.06.2015 35.1N 73.7W WEAK

00UTC 06.06.2015 37.6N 71.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.06.2015 39.5N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.06.2015 43.8N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.06.2015 47.9N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.06.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.0N 94.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.06.2015 11.0N 94.5W WEAK

12UTC 09.06.2015 10.4N 94.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.06.2015 11.4N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.06.2015 12.7N 96.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.06.2015 13.9N 97.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Quoting 382. Bucsboltsfan:



This time of year the GFS should cut off at 5 days because it's accuracy past that is pretty much an F.


All the models are all over the place from Texas to the FL panhandle. All hinges on these trough coming across next week and the ridge across Texas. Personally I think we see no system instead a NW moving trough coming up from the NW Caribbean and merging into the Gulf something similar to what the GFS ENS shows.

Ridge holds tight over Texas and troughs dig toward the SE US pulling the moisture up into the Central Gulf Coast.

385. beell
Quoting 383. ncstorm:

00z UKMET

Has the beginnings of the Gulf storm as well..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 35.1N 73.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.06.2015 35.1N 73.7W WEAK

00UTC 06.06.2015 37.6N 71.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.06.2015 39.5N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.06.2015 43.8N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.06.2015 47.9N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.06.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.0N 94.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.06.2015 11.0N 94.5W WEAK

12UTC 09.06.2015 10.4N 94.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.06.2015 11.4N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.06.2015 12.7N 96.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.06.2015 13.9N 97.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY




Probably should take a look at those coordinates...
386. yoboi
Quoting 86. ColoradoBob1:

Study dismisses ‘hiatus’ in global warming, says temperatures up

OSLO (Reuters) – An apparent slowdown in the pace of global warming in recent years may be an illusion based on skewed data, according to a study on Thursday that found no break in a trend of rising temperatures.

Link


I wonder if Trent is upset spending all that time looking for the missing heat...

The awkward “Pause” in global temperatures shows up in every major dataset. It’s the reality that conflicts with nearly every major climate model. But it’s there in the Hadley records of land surface and ocean, it shows up in the Hadley sea surface measurements, it’s there in NCDC, GISS, and of course in the satellite data of RSS, and UAH, and it shows up in the best data we have on the ocean, the ARGO buoys. It’s quite the challenge to unfind it!
To find global warming in the last 15 years, we need to ignore all that and use sea surface data blended from boats randomly trekking through shipping lanes with buckets and from ocean buoys (and that’s not ARGO buoys). But even that isn’t enough, that original data needs to be adjusted, and where sea ice gets in the way, gap-filled from sparse land data (as you would right?). Then we need to accept a lower-than-usual significance test, and carefully cherry pick the time periods to blend the past rapid warming with past cooling, so we can say we’ve found the holy grail, a quasi significant slight “warming trend” in data adjusted with a wildly uncertain correction estimate. And Professor Matthew England likes this kind of science.

Ross McKitrick points out that to get the new NOAA sea surface data they added 0.12 °C to the buoy readings, to make them more like the ship data. That magic number came from Kennedy et al. (2011) where the uncertainty was reported as (wait for it) 0.12 ± 1.7°C. (Which is like saying there is definitely one apple here, give or take 17 apples. So this is what 95% certainty looks like?). Worse, that uber-extremely-uncertain-number was supposed to be used to adjust the ship data down so it was closer to the buoys. The authors felt the buoys were more accurate than bucket-from-ships. Even Karl et al paradoxically agree (have cake, eat cake), saying that because the buoy data is better, it should be weighted higher. In this fashion, the best data can get adjusted the most, to make it more like the bad data, then it can count for more. This is Double-Good-Science! Thanks to Ross McKitricks comments on Karl et al 2015 for details (1K PDF).

Link
Quoting 385. beell:



Probably should take a look at those coordinates...


Second is E-Pac not Gulf
388. JRRP
Quoting 385. beell:



Probably should take a look at those coordinates...


the second set of coordinates shows the storm moving north? same area that will cross over into the BOC..no?
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:



Second is E-Pac not Gulf


I said the beginnings of the GOM system..
The MEI has reached strong threshold for April/May and has the highest value since 1997. This update June 4th

Good Morning. Here are the latest RAMMB shots of the Gulf, relative vort at the surface and mid levels, and and shear levels per CIMMS. Plenty of moisture and a pre-existing disturbance but shear is still way too high for organized development at the moment IMHO. Also note that there is some vort at the mid levels but nothing has worked it's way down to the surface as of yet. A 12-48 hour time frame for organized development is out of the question unless the shear drops considerably.



Shear


Surface Vort

Mid-Level Vort
Quoting 382. Bucsboltsfan:



This time of year the GFS should cut off at 5 days because it's accuracy past that is pretty much an F.
yes im beginning to think we should do that with all the models..anything over 5 days is out in limbo
I meant to say the Yucatan and Caribbean in the post below; the Gulf is closed for business at the moment:

6Z NAM might have some help with those fires in mid south florida this evening..
conditions in the gulf not good for anything to form this week ................
Quoting 390. ncstorm:



I said the beginnings of the GOM system..



Those coordinates are east of North Carolina, not in the GOM. That's what Beell was trying to point out.

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 35.1N 73.7W
And the final piece of the Yucatan area; the upper level TUTT cell draped from Cuban-Yucatan into the Gulf. All of that streaming convection is the result of baroclinic interaction between the Tutt cell and area of interest streaming up:

Quoting 307. swflurker:

Living here in SW FL, 3 day forecasts are as far as I would go!





Wow, you're brave! I'm skeptical about anything beyond 12 hours.
400. beell
Quoting 397. ProgressivePulse:




Those coordinates are east of North Carolina, not in the GOM. That's what Beell was trying to point out.

FORECAST POSITION AT T 12 : 35.1N 73.7W


The second set's initial is about 350 mi SW of the coast of Guatemala-ending at a point approx. 300 miles towards the NW. It is possible that this could still be a system that drifts north at some point. All pretty much a guess for now.
401. jpsb
Quoting 386. yoboi:



Ross McKitrick points out that to get the new NOAA sea surface data they added 0.12 °C to the buoy readings, to make them more like the ship data. That magic number came from Kennedy et al. (2011) where the uncertainty was reported as (wait for it) 0.12 ± 1.7°C.


I am pretty I would have gotten an F in physics assignment had I reported a 0.12 result with an error margin of plus/minus 1.7 The error margin is over twenty times larger then the result! An utterly meaningless and useless result.

Also questionable is adjusting the admittedly more reliable(and cooler) buoy data to match the less reliable (and warmer) ship's data. If you want the buoy data to and ships data to match then why not adjust the ships data down by 0.12C? And why adjust the data globally (all data gets a 0.12 adjustment) instead of regionally (regional adjustment computed and used)? Why were the very warm years of 1998, 1999 adjusted down?
All,

I included the first set of coordinates because of my previous post in the blog..my comment was regarding the second set of coordinates..I figured everyone would know I wasn't referring to the the east coast as the beginnings of a GOM storm..I guess I was wrong to think so...


Quoting 400. beell:



The second set's initial is about 350 mi SW of the coast of Guatemala-ending at a point approx. 300 miles towards the NW. It is possible that this could still be a system that drifts north at some point. All pretty much a guess for now.
Good morning Beell..I still say the models are not good with position in regard to storm formation. better than 10 years ago, yes.
At least 160 people were trapped on one of the highest mountains in Southeast Asia on Friday after a 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck the island of Borneo, officials said.

The epicenter was around five miles from the summit of Mount Kinabalu, a 13,500-foot peak in the Malaysian part of the island that is a hot spot for climbers and trekkers.

Several climbers were injured in the tremor, which also badly damaged several mountain huts and triggered boulder and rockfalls, according to Masidi Manjun, tourism minister for Malaysia's Sabah state.

"WE JUST FROZE"
"Other than ongoing rescue efforts, our priority is to send food, drinks and warm clothing to those still stranded at the mountain," Manjun said on Twitter.

He said 137 climbers, assisted by 32 guides, were attempting to make their way to the Laban Rata climber's hut on the south side of the mountain. There they would be met by an 85-strong team of rescuers as well as supplies of food, he said.

Manjun added that part of the mountain's iconic "Donkey's Ear" rock formation had been destroyed in the quake.
Quoting 401. jpsb:



I am pretty I would have gotten an F in physics assignment had I reported a 0.12 result with an error margin of plus/minus 1.7 The error margin is over twenty times larger then the result! An utterly meaningless and useless result.

Also questionable is adjusting the admittedly more reliable(and cooler) buoy data to match the less reliable (and warmer) ship's data. If you want the buoy data to and ships data to match then why not adjust the ships data down by 0.12C? And why adjust the data globally (all data gets a 0.12 adjustment) instead of regionally (regional adjustment computed and used)? Why were the very warm years of 1998, 1999 adjusted down?


You do realize the adjustments lowered the overall trend, right?. If you read the paper, and understood the methodology and didn't rely on conspiracy purveyors such as Jo Nova and Anthony Watts to tell you what to be outraged about, this would all be moot as the adjustments are very detailed. In fact, the methodology for adjustments remains largely the same and instead, more data was added to make the temperature series more robust.

It's always hilarious that you guys choose to not listen to scientific expertise and instead rely on the lack of expertise of laymen to tell you what to think. All this is just more data that shows how intellectually bankrupt science denial and lukewarmerism are. Watching you guys scramble to deny is always good fun, thanks.

Quoting 386. yoboi:
...cut and pasted garbage deleted...


If you actually have an original thought about some story or material, feel free to post it. But cut and pasting verbatim from known garbage/nutter sites with nothing else added is a sad attempt to make you look more "knowledgeable" than you really are and just a waste blog space. A simple link with a brief description is more than sufficient.

All the points raised in that stupid diatribe are countered by the paper(s) and the resources mentioned. Unlike Joan "I can't read" Nova, scientific papers actually contain the description of their methods and resources. Deniers absolutely love to cast aspersions at data set adjustments (mostly because they have no clue about how science actually works) like it's some big conspiracy, when the sources actually post the hows and whys for the adjustments.

Deniers: "A ha! We caught you read handed! Muahahahaha!!!!"
Scientists: "No, you're just stupid. We explained the reasoning here, here, and here."
Deniers: " A ha! Your explanations are faulty!"
Scientists: "Oh? Why?"
Deniers: "Because...um.....Al Gore!"

You know, Nova, Watts, etc. could gain a lot of benefit from a reading comprehension class. They (and you) want to try and convince everyone that this big conspiracy is going on and that scientists are doing all these underhanded schemes. Aside from the ludicrousness of a global conspiracy theory, the science, data, source code, etc. are publicly available. It just makes Watts et. al. look incredibly petty and stupid when they try to claim there's something hidden/nefarious going on when you can find a clear and concise explanation right at the source.

I've got a crazy new tactic for you and your anti-science buddies to try. How about instead of trying to find new and inventive ways to do bad math and misrepresent data, how about you guys actually try to come up with a plausible physical model? I know it'll be hard since it would go against the past 200 years or so of science, but at least it will be something new and different. And I could use the laugh.
There is a tide in the affairs of men....was it shakespeare? Grothar?
Another reason to love this blog
Quoting 408. K8eCane:

There is a tide in the affairs of men....was it shakespeare? Grothar?
Another reason to love this blog


Hard to tell who said that as they both lived around the same time, am I righteth Gro?
Quoting 401. jpsb:



I am pretty I would have gotten an F in physics assignment had I reported a 0.12 result with an error margin of plus/minus 1.7 The error margin is over twenty times larger then the result! An utterly meaningless and useless result.

Also questionable is adjusting the admittedly more reliable(and cooler) buoy data to match the less reliable (and warmer) ship's data. If you want the buoy data to and ships data to match then why not adjust the ships data down by 0.12C? And why adjust the data globally (all data gets a 0.12 adjustment) instead of regionally (regional adjustment computed and used)? Why were the very warm years of 1998, 1999 adjusted down?


I'm pretty sure you would have also gotten an F in reading comprehension, but an A in old fashioned laziness. You're asking questions that are answered in the paper. In great detail. Which is why no one can take Nova, Watts, etc. seriously since the questions/insinuations that you're parroting here are pretty clearly explained.

I'm actually surprised that there's no mention in the deny-o-sphere of how the paper actually lowers the overall trend. But I guess that would imply that scientists know what they're doing, and we simply can't have that dangerous idea running amuck in the anti-science/pro-conspiracy nutter group.

The MEI has reached strong threshold for April/May and has the highest value since 1997. This update June 4th



actually since 98....here's the post eric blake copied this info from......blake did however mention 97/98

Scott Sabol ‏@ScottSabolFOX8 2h2 hours ago
(El Nino update) MEI is now at +1.6. Only 5 other April/May period were higher: 1983, 87, 92, 93 and 1998...(cond't)

note....while 83 and 98 were strong el nino's......87 and 92 were moderate...and 93 was neutral
Quoting 410. Xyrus2000:



I'm pretty sure you would have also gotten an F in reading comprehension, but an A in old fashioned laziness. You're asking questions that are answered in the paper. In great detail. Which is why no one can take Nova, Watts, etc. seriously since the questions/insinuations that you're parroting here are pretty clearly explained.

I'm actually surprised that there's no mention in the deny-o-sphere of how the paper actually lowers the overall trend. But I guess that would imply that scientists know what they're doing, and we simply can't have that dangerous idea running amuck in the anti-science/pro-conspiracy nutter group.


The .12 plus minus 1.7 they are blathering about is actually the bias estimation of ship minus drifting buoy data, the paper, found here (which is not linked to in the denial article, strangely enough), explains it quite well. Again, McKitrick is a liar and serial misinformer.
more from the twittersphere....a strange el nino indeed......


steve paulson ‏@SPaulsonKTVU 2h2 hours ago
El Nino continues to be a "hot" topic but buoys off CA coast haven't gotten the message. Bodega Bay down to 49 degrees. SF buoy is 51.
and more.......


Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 2h2 hours ago
@ScottSabolFOX8 MEI is impressive but this is a 2nd yr NINO after all. Updated ERSSTv4 MAM ONI isn't too significant pic.twitter.com/7RU3UNH1Wp
View photo 0 retweets 0 favorites
Reply Retweet Favorite
More
perspective.......facts...not hype

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 2h2 hours ago
@ScottSabolFOX8 Since 1870, we're ranked 21st overall (86th %ile) for MAM (w/ +0.68C) in ERSSTv4 & 11th highest among El Ninos only...
416. beell
Quoting 403. hydrus:

Good morning Beell..I still say the models are not good with position in regard to storm formation. better than 10 years ago, yes.


Morning hydrus.
GFS continues to show a broad circulation that seems monsoonal in nature. I believe that much. Where/When/If still negotiable.

Things have improved on the forecasting front...



low confidence on strength?....they must not read these blogs or certain twitter posters...... :=)

NWSBayArea ‏@NWSBayArea Jun 2
Weekly #ElNino update [tech] @NWSCPC http://1.usa.gov/KDImPD Low conf on strength, but almost all models show at least weak El Nino thru 2015
Quoting 407. Xyrus2000:


If you actually have an original thought about some story or material, feel free to post it. But cut and pasting verbatim from known garbage/nutter sites with nothing else added is a sad attempt to make you look more "knowledgeable" than you really are and just a waste blog space. A simple link with a brief description is more than sufficient.

All the points raised in that stupid diatribe are countered by the paper(s) and the resources mentioned. Unlike Joan "I can't read" Nova, scientific papers actually contain the description of their methods and resources. Deniers absolutely love to cast aspersions at data set adjustments (mostly because they have no clue about how science actually works) like it's some big conspiracy, when the sources actually post the hows and whys for the adjustments.

Deniers: "A ha! We caught you read handed! Muahahahaha!!!!"
Scientists: "No, you're just stupid. We explained the reasoning here, here, and here."
Deniers: " A ha! Your explanations are faulty!"
Scientists: "Oh? Why?"
Deniers: "Because...um.....Al Gore!"

You know, Nova, Watts, etc. could gain a lot of benefit from a reading comprehension class. They (and you) want to try and convince everyone that this big conspiracy is going on and that scientists are doing all these underhanded schemes. Aside from the ludicrousness of a global conspiracy theory, the science, data, source code, etc. are publicly available. It just makes Watts et. al. look incredibly petty and stupid when they try to claim there's something hidden/nefarious going on when you can find a clear and concise explanation right at the source.

I've got a crazy new tactic for you and your anti-science buddies to try. How about instead of trying to find new and inventive ways to do bad math and misrepresent data, how about you guys actually try to come up with a plausible physical model? I know it'll be hard since it would go against the past 200 years or so of science, but at least it will be something new and different. And I could use the laugh.
I was pretty impressed with his or her's improvement in writing style...until I realized that it must have been a copy and paste job...since it didn't include multiple dots instead of punctuation....you know what I mean????
Quoting 401. jpsb:



I am pretty I would have gotten an F in physics assignment had I reported a 0.12 result with an error margin of plus/minus 1.7 The error margin is over twenty times larger then the result! An utterly meaningless and useless result.

Also questionable is adjusting the admittedly more reliable(and cooler) buoy data to match the less reliable (and warmer) ship's data. If you want the buoy data to and ships data to match then why not adjust the ships data down by 0.12C? And why adjust the data globally (all data gets a 0.12 adjustment) instead of regionally (regional adjustment computed and used)? Why were the very warm years of 1998, 1999 adjusted down?

The original paper is here: Possible artifacts of data biases in the
recent global surface warming hiatus


Supplementary materials for the paper: Supplementary Material for
Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming
hiatus


Both the original paper and its supplementary materials reference this paper in regards to buoy/ship temperature adjustments: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons (Note - this is the abstract only)

Thankfully, the authors have made the paper available freely on ResearchGate: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons

From this paper:

Although buoy SSTs aregenerally more homogeneous than ship SSTs, they are adjusted here because otherwise it would be necessary to adjust ship SSTs before 1980 when there were no or very few buoys. As expected, the global averaged SSTA trends between 1901 and 2012 (refer to Table 2) are the same whether buoy SSTs are adjusted to ship SSTs or the reverse. However, the global mean SST is 0.068C warmer after 1980 in ERSST.v4 because of the buoy adjustments (not shown) and there are therefore impacts on the long-term trends compared to applying no adjustment to account for the change in observational platforms.

There's a whole lot of detailed (and very dry reading) here, for anyone truly interested in temperature adjustments. Personally, I think I've had my fill...enough to last me a good, long while :)
Quoting 416. beell:



Morning hydrus.
GFS continues to show a broad circulation that seems monsoonal in nature. I believe that much. Where/When/If still negotiable.

Things have improved on the forecasting front...






Is that a picture of you in the early years doing your morning forecast?

Quoting 413. ricderr:
more from the twittersphere....a strange el nino indeed......


steve paulson %u200F@SPaulsonKTVU 2h2 hours ago
El Nino continues to be a "hot" topic but buoys off CA coast haven't gotten the message. Bodega Bay down to 49 degrees. SF buoy is 51.
Those temperatures are amazingly low. I used to dive from Bodega Bay north to Salt Point quite a bit over 15 or so years. I don't remember a temperature that low in Bodega Bay, especially in the first week of June. It's quite a contrast to this time last year, when water temperatures in the same area were in the 60's. Even when I was younger, a water temperature of 49 would have been distinctly uncomfortable. It would probably kill me if I tried it today. :-)
Friday hello from hot Germany. Temps on my balcony mid town Mainz are approaching 35C (95F), uff. The map below shows the run for some records in Europe today:


Click to enlarge.


Current temps in France and adjacent countries (saved). Source for updates.

The heat is advected in advance of this beautiful low in the North Atlantic, handsome "Lothar":


Satellite pic from noon.



First a zone of convergence, afterwards the incoming cold front of "Lothar" causes thunderstorms today and tomorrow in western and central Europe. Some of them may become severe. There'll be a strip mid Germany which should be spared from convection: yeah, exactly my region which already is in a severe drought!


Current thunderstorm activity in Europe (saved pic). Source.
Those temperatures are amazingly low. I used to dive from Bodega Bay north to Salt Point quite a bit over 15 or so years. I don't remember a temperature that low in Bodega Bay, especially in the first week of June. It's quite a contrast to this time last year, when water temperatures in the same area were in the 60's. Even when I was younger, a water temperature of 49 would have been distinctly uncomfortable. It would probably kill me if I tried it today. :-)


their average for this time of year is 51
the average for san francisco this time of year....is 58...so they're 7 degrees below normal......i wonder what this means for their upcoming rain chances
I need to address an issue which I have touched on before and remains unaddressed on this blog. I write this with all due respect to all whose scientific perspective is way above my understanding but please guide me as to what can be done or is being done by any of you that go into great detail about what is happening in this world ( http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/world-environm ent-day-humanitys-impact-on-our-planet/ss-BBkIvDs ) and how can we reach all those that are either oblivious to the situation or really just don't care. Imagine if we could reach the millions of Twitters that are connected to Caitlyn, Bieber, Beyonce or the "K" girls.
Recon on their way to Blanca..... got a ways to go.


Google Earth
national geographic interviews our good doc about the upcoming hurricane season



Link

Interesting looking tornado yesterday in Colorado.
The Florida surfers are getting excited with this wishcast. (Florida surfers get excited when ever the waves are predicted to get to two feet.)

Link



Quoting 423. ricderr:
Those temperatures are amazingly low. I used to dive from Bodega Bay north to Salt Point quite a bit over 15 or so years. I don't remember a temperature that low in Bodega Bay, especially in the first week of June. It's quite a contrast to this time last year, when water temperatures in the same area were in the 60's. Even when I was younger, a water temperature of 49 would have been distinctly uncomfortable. It would probably kill me if I tried it today. :-)


their average for this time of year is 51
Yes, but Bodega Bay has very stable temperatures, with a degree or two being a big change. The much warmer temperatures last year were a really big change, and a 49 this year, although not looking like much, is also a big change. I don't know what it means but a 49 would have caught my attention if I was going diving.
Quoting 415. ricderr:

perspective.......facts...not hype

Eric Webb %u200F@webberweather 2h2 hours ago
@ScottSabolFOX8 Since 1870, we're ranked 21st overall (86th %ile) for MAM (w/ 0.68C) in ERSSTv4 & 11th highest among El Ninos only...



Easy for Eric to cherry pick data to boast his cause but the fact is per Dr. Phil Klotzbach May 2015 will go down as the 2nd warmest Nino 3.4 ever. The MAM ONI is no surprise @ 0.7C and that's because March was a sluggish month for 3.4 east but April things quickly turned around and I suspect the AMJ ONI will come in @ 1.1 or 1.2 with JJA coming in @ 1.5 or higher.

Eric can't downplay anymore just how significant May was from Nino 3.4 east. Facts are facts and he try to beat around the bush all he wants.

This is from someone @ Colorado State not some from High School. Big difference and as you said Ric look at what the experts are saying.

Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 17h17 hours ago
Warmest May Nino 4, 2nd warmest Nino 3.4, 6th warmest Nino 3, 9th warmest Nino 1 2 says CPC since 1950 @EricBlake12
I normally wouldn't be such a jerk but I am sick and tired of Eric Webber coming on here and talking to me like I'm stupid to try to prove his point. So the gloves are off now as i have had it with him. This is in reference to a post he made last night on here.
I normally wouldn't be such a jerk but I am sick and tired of Eric Webber coming on here and talking to me like I'm stupid to try to prove his point. So the gloves are off now as i have had it with him. This is in reference to a post he made last night on here.



i see a ban in your future


Just returned from Vietnam and brought the weather with me. Tomorrow's timing of the cold front should be interesting with the city prepared for the champions league final.
Quoting 422. barbamz:

Friday hello from hot Germany. Temps on my balcony mid town Mainz are approaching 35C (95F), uff. The map below shows the run for some records in Europe today:


Click to enlarge.


Current temps in France and adjacent countries (saved). Source for updates.

The heat is advected in advance of this beautiful low in the North Atlantic, handsome "Lothar":


Satellite pic from noon.



First a zone of convergence, afterwards the incoming cold front of "Lothar" causes thunderstorms today and tomorrow in western and central Europe. Some of them may become severe. There'll be a strip mid Germany which should be spared from convection: yeah, exactly my region which already is in a severe drought!


Current thunderstorm activity in Europe (saved pic). Source.

Easy for Eric to cherry pick data to boast his cause but the fact is per Dr. Phil Klotzbach May 2015 will go down as the 2nd warmest Nino 3.4 ever. The MAM ONI is no surprise @ 0.7C and that's because March was a sluggish month for 3.4 east but April things quickly turned around and I suspect the AMJ ONI will come in @ 1.1 or 1.2 with JJA coming in @ 1.5 or higher.

Eric can't downplay anymore just how significant May was from Nino 3.4 east. Facts are facts and he try to beat around the bush all he wants.

This is from someone @ Colorado State not some from High School. Big difference and as you said Ric look at what the experts are saying.

Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 17h17 hours ago
Warmest May Nino 4, 2nd warmest Nino 3.4, 6th warmest Nino 3, 9th warmest Nino 1 2 says CPC since 1950 @EricBlake12


eric does cherry pic his data........and so does klots......and ventrice.....and you too...LOL......the thing is...i don't mind that you do...i may not agree with it...and i may provide data to shoot you down...and i may argue more agressively than the mods allow...oh well....that's there problem....but i have a problem when these pros do it....what you and i post....whether it is right or wrong....really doesn't matter...but these pros are taken a lot more seriously and as such....should post in a more professional manner
436. jpsb
Free math lesson,

lets say you can read your thermometer to 3 significant figures (98.6F) and it is accurate to +/- 0.5F
Since a result should never contain more significant figures then the original data you can not report, with assurance, a temperature using a hundred .0x figure. The best you can report is to a tenth of a degree F. Also what ever temperature you report is only accurate to +/- 0.5F

A lot of people confuse sampling error, Bob looks down and gets a cooler temp whereas Mary look up and gets a warmer temp which do tend to cancel out, to accuracy errors can not be assumed to cancel out. Why can't we assume the temperature errors in accuracy cancel out? Because we do not know what the correct temperature is!

Here is a example, 3 reading from a 1 km sq grid

Bob's temp reading is 19F, so we know the temp is contained in the set (18.5, 19.5)
Mary's Temp reading is 20F so we know the temp is contained in the set (19.5, 20.5)
Pat's Temp reading is 21F so we know the temp is contained in the set (20.5, 21.5)

19+20+21=60 60/3 = 20 average temp is 20.0 right? No the temp is 20 +/- 0.5F (19.5, 20.5)

proof (kind of)
average the lower bound 18.5 + 19.5 + 20.5 = 58.5 / 3 = 19.5
average the upper bound 19.5 + 20.5 + 20.5 = 61.5 / 3 = 20.5

The lower bound are all possible correct temps
The upper bound are all possible correct temps
Nothing cancels out!


Summery: a result can not have more significant figures then the least significant data set
a result can not be more precise (accurate) then the least precise data set.


Quoting 434. largeeyes:

Just returned from Vietnam and brought the weather with me. Tomorrow's timing of the cold front should be interesting with the city prepared for the champions league final.

Hi, largeeyes ... And the weather for the G7 summit in Bavaria's Elmau Castle (Sunday/Monday) could be a bit tumultuous as well. Would match the topics they'll have to discuss ...

Forecast for Elmau (German wetteronline)


Fairytale venue with dark past for G7 summit in Germany
AFPBy AFP | AFP – 2 hours 46 minutes ago
... Elmau Castle, nestled in the Bavarian Alps, is a five-star resort that will be transformed into a fortress for the two-day meeting of the club of rich nations.
If the forecast for sunny, hot weather holds, the German leader can look forward to an enchanting backdrop for the meeting that will have on the agenda the world's most pressing crises.
US President Barack Obama has agreed to a village walkabout on Sunday among the feather-capped farmers and dirndl-clad women who make Bavaria famous, complete with a stop for a soft pretzel and frothy beer. ...

Umm, lol ...
Quoting 435. ricderr:

Easy for Eric to cherry pick data to boast his cause but the fact is per Dr. Phil Klotzbach May 2015 will go down as the 2nd warmest Nino 3.4 ever. The MAM ONI is no surprise @ 0.7C and that's because March was a sluggish month for 3.4 east but April things quickly turned around and I suspect the AMJ ONI will come in @ 1.1 or 1.2 with JJA coming in @ 1.5 or higher.

Eric can't downplay anymore just how significant May was from Nino 3.4 east. Facts are facts and he try to beat around the bush all he wants.

This is from someone @ Colorado State not some from High School. Big difference and as you said Ric look at what the experts are saying.

Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 17h17 hours ago
Warmest May Nino 4, 2nd warmest Nino 3.4, 6th warmest Nino 3, 9th warmest Nino 1 2 says CPC since 1950 @EricBlake12


eric does cherry pic his data........and so does klots......and ventrice.....and you too...LOL......the thing is...i don't mind that you do...i may not agree with it...and i may provide data to shoot you down...and i may argue more agressively than the mods allow...oh well....that's there problem....but i have a problem when these pros do it....what you and i post....whether it is right or wrong....really doesn't matter...but these pros are taken a lot more seriously and as such....should post in a more professional manner
Eric Blake
@EricBlake12
Hurricane Specialist NHC, veganish runner, CSU & ULM alum. Tweets tropics, weather, intraseasonal fcsts & climate mostly. My opinions only not my employers!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 436. jpsb:

Summery: a result can not have more significant figures then the least significant data set
a result can not be more precise (accurate) then the least precise data set.





Not true at all. If that was the case, it would be impossible for astronomers to stack images to improve signal to noise. S/N improves with the square root of the number of samples.

Assuming the real data lies between [0,1] and the probability distribution is flat, and you take 10 independent samples, the average is still 0.5, however the new probability distribution is no longer flat, it approaches a Gaussian.

This is known as the Central Limit Theorem. Link
442. jpsb
Quoting 437. barbamz:


Hi, largeeyes ... And the weather for the G7 summit in Bavaria's Elmau Castle (Sunday/Monday) could be a bit tumultuous as well. Would match the topics they'll have to discuss ...



Hold the summit in Scotland!

Snow falls over Scotland's mountains



Or Norway
‘January in June’ stranded drivers




;)
443. jpsb
Quoting 441. hendric:



Not true at all. If that was the case, it would be impossible for astronomers to stack images to improve signal to noise. S/N improves with the square root of the number of samples.

Assuming the real data lies between [0,1] and the probability distribution is flat, and you take 10 independent samples, the average is still 0.5, however the new probability distribution is no longer flat, it approaches a Gaussian.

This is known as the Central Limit Theorem. Link


Thanks for the link I will read it later (lunch time), but I imagine it is going to tell me that there is a high probability better then 50/50 that the real average temp was 20F. But again thanks for the link I always enjoy learning something new.
Quoting 401. jpsb:



I am pretty I would have gotten an F in physics assignment had I reported a 0.12 result with an error margin of plus/minus 1.7 The error margin is over twenty times larger then the result! An utterly meaningless and useless result.

Also questionable is adjusting the admittedly more reliable(and cooler) buoy data to match the less reliable (and warmer) ship's data. If you want the buoy data to and ships data to match then why not adjust the ships data down by 0.12C? And why adjust the data globally (all data gets a 0.12 adjustment) instead of regionally (regional adjustment computed and used)? Why were the very warm years of 1998, 1999 adjusted down?

Why, in the name of everything composed of cells, would you believe a single word out of Ross McKitrick? lol
If you look closely, NAM has a LOW over south florida and ALOT of rain in a spot inland..........
Quoting 443. jpsb:



Thanks for the link I will read it later (lunch time), but I imagine it is going to tell me that there is a high probability better then 50/50 that the real average temp was 20F. But again thanks for the link I always enjoy learning something new.


Something new? This is one of the most basic concepts in statistics and data analysis. You can't honestly sit here and say central limit theorum is new, having professed so much about data and math.

This is why we can't have nice things.
I know it won't happen just like the GFS is showing the storm, but check out the banding features on that thing wow!
Quoting 445. LargoFl:

If you look closely, NAM has a LOW over south florida and ALOT of rain in a spot inland..........



South florida could use that rain.
Quoting 442. jpsb:




Hold the summit in Scotland!

Snow falls over Scotland's mountains



Or Norway
‘January in June’ stranded drivers




;)

Nothing special.
Yesterday date records went again for Holland. Hot.