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Andres Becomes the Farthest West Major Hurricane on Record for May in the NE Pacific

By: Jeff Masters 2:57 AM GMT on June 01, 2015

Hurricane Andres became only the fifth major May hurricane on record in the Northeast Pacific on Sunday, when it intensified into a 125 mph Category 3 storm in the waters about 800 miles southwest of the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Its unexpected intensification continued Sunday evening, with Andres reaching Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds at 11 pm EDT. According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management, Andres' emergence as a major hurricane at longitude 118.8°W marks the farthest west a major hurricane has been in the Northeast Pacific in May in the 45 years since accurate satellite records began in 1970, and comes well before the usual July 19 formation date of the first major hurricane of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season. This unusually early and far westerly intensification was made possible, in part, by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that are very warm, at least 2°F (1.1°C) above average--thanks in large part to the intensifying moderate-strength El Niño event underway in the Eastern Pacific. The other May major hurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda (2014). The strongest was Hurricane Amanda, which peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on May 25, 2014. The earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Eastern Pacific was Hurricane Ava of 1973, which peaked at 160 mph winds on June 6, 1973. Both years (2014 and 1973) had ocean temperatures that were unusually warm along the path of these intense hurricanes: at least 0.4°C above average. Andres will stay well out to sea and not affect any land areas.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Andres taken at approximately 2 pm EDT May 31, 2015. At the time, Andres was intensifying into a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Worldview.


Figure 2. Tracks of all May tropical storms and hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean according to the database maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management. The 2015 version of Hurricane Andres became a major hurricane on Sunday afternoon at 5 pm EDT May 31 (large orange X) farther west than any previous May major hurricane has existed in the Northeast Pacific (accurate records of Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones began in 1970.) The previous record was 115.4°W by Hurricane Alma of 2002.

Tropical Depression 2-E forms in the Northeast Pacific
Hurricane Andres now has a companion--Tropical Depression 2-E, which formed Sunday afternoon about 380 miles SSW of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. TD 2-E is suffering high wind shear due to the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Andres, but will likely see lower wind shear by Tuesday and become Tropical Storm Blanca as Andres moves off to the west. Intensification into a major hurricane is predicted by NHC by the end of the week. TD 2-E will not be a threat to any land areas this week, but it is too early to say if it will miss the coast of Mexico next week or not. The usual appearance of the second named storm of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season comes on June 25.

NOAA predicts an above-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 18.5 named storms
Andres and TD 2-E are the first salvos in what is likely to be a very busy Northeast Pacific hurricane season. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for 15 - 22 named storms, 7 - 12 hurricanes, 5 - 8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 110% - 190% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 18.5 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, and 6.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 150% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

I'll have a new post late morning on June 1--the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!!
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks, Doc

Thanks Dr. Masters!

Repost.
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Analysis will be out tomorrow.
But I'll go ahead and spoil the fun for you and let those who really want to read the analysis part of the blog to stop by tomorrow.

Goodnight Everyone
Well who thinks Bill will form this week. I do.
*bites carrot* Thanks Doc.

Just got back from Arkansas, I now know why it is called "Little Rock"...I also now got a reminder why I do not like Arkansas, they do not know how to pave roads.
The 18z GFS forecast for Two-E showed a minimum of 919mb, or likely within the range of a Category 5 hurricane. If this forecast were to verify, it would surpass Hurricane Ava as the earliest Category 5 on record in the East Pacific.

Just something to talk about for now.

Quoting 5. HurricaneAndre:

Well who thinks Bill will form this week. I do.


could get interesting in a couple of days same here Link
Thanks Dr. Masters, an early start to this 2015 E-PAC Hurricane Season.
. Edit: Could've sworn that I hit "modify". :/ Pretty sure it's my friend that is jet-lagged, not me. I slept most of the time back today from Ar-kansas. She flew back from Israel and is more awake than I?

Uhh...picture! (to stay on weather)



Summer must start tomorrow. Huh.
Quoting 431. MaxWeather:



the whole list is enormous. I don't post it here for not crashing the site
You are listed here...


I guess I might as well throw my hat in the ring at the last minutes, put me down for:

8-5-2

Thanks
The first hurricane season run has officially started.
Link
Here's my timer, if you didn't get it in the last blog.
20 MINUTES everyone... that's it.. 20 minutes! It's over when the Eastern Time clock hits midnight
My chart is coming to an end... hurricane season about to start

Quoting 11. NasBahMan:

Quoting 431. MaxWeather:
I guess I might as well throw my hat in the ring at the last minutes, put me down for:

8-5-2

Thanks

154th

Koritheman - 155th
Andres was declared Category 4 in June GMT time, Not in May. I think.
9-3-1 guys hold me to it
Hey Max, 10-4-0 for me
The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here. Hope everyone is ready and has their emergency plans, just in case. Hope we can track beautiful storms, But also hope we don't get any big surprises.
HURRICANE SOCRECARD 2015 HAS COME TO AN END
February 2 - June 1, 2015

Thanks a lot you guys, this year I got more predictions into my list than ever before.

HURRICANE SOCRECARD 2013-2015
Atlantic Hurricane season has started
June 1, 2015


Final count: 157 predictions

I'll leave you with my latest graphic on Hurricane Andres
Happy Hurricane Season Everybody!!!!
Thanks Dr. Masters..
Moisture galore.


The 0z GFS goes even further and deepens Two-E to 910 millibars.

14-9-5
What will I win?

Weak but there, the run is still going though.
00Z 1st June GFS
so far not different than the last one
forms system same time as last run
moves system same time as last run
same track as last run
SO FAR that is
Quoting 27. leofarnsworth:

14-9-5
What will I win?


Max, let this person in.

As for reward, I don't even think HE knows. He hasn't said anything specific yet as far as I'm aware.
this GFS run is just ever so slightly weaker than last run but it shan't make a difference because of how slight it is
This is just a preview of the final picture... 157 predictions. This is a record set for the highest ever I have gotten for a season to write down.

Thanks to all who participated!!!



The last predictions who made it:
150 - Aquak9
151 - Hurricanedevo
152 - Allan Calderini
153 - CraigsIsland
154 - Nashbaman
155 - Koritheman
156 - Chrisdcane
157 - Livetofish0430

END

Good night everyone - Off to bed.
It was a long ride doing this... need to rest now

Later in the run.
Andres



02-E

BTW guy the TCHP in the Caribbean is the highest in the past 5 years at this point

2010


2011


2012


2013


2014


2015
Intellicast was the first place I went to for tropical storm info. Love their graphics even if it doesn't work sometimes.

Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:

00Z 1st June GFS
so far not different than the last one
forms system same time as last run
moves system same time as last run
same track as last run
SO FAR that is



Yup the same, though I think the runs today will continue to shift east as the cutoff low slowly digs into the southern US.
Quoting 35. wunderkidcayman:

BTW guy the TCHP in the Caribbean is the highest in the past 5 years at this point

2010


2011


2012


2013


2014


2015



despite this the TCHP pool is smaller than all the seasons except 2014 which was a bit smaller than this year
Quoting 37. chrisdscane:




Yup the same, though I think the runs today will continue to shift east as the cutoff low slowly digs into the southern US.


hmm maybe
Quoting 32. MaxWeather:

This is just a preview of the final picture... 157 predictions. This is a record set for the highest ever I have gotten for a season to write down.

Thanks to all who participated!!!



The last predictions who made it:
150 - Aquak9
151 - Hurricanedevo
152 - Allan Calderini
153 - CraigsIsland
154 - Nashbaman
155 - Koritheman
156 - Chrisdcane
157 - Livetofish0430

END

Good night everyone - Off to bed.
It was a long ride doing this... need to rest now

Cool thx. night
Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:

00Z 1st June GFS
so far not different than the last one
forms system same time as last run
moves system same time as last run
same track as last run
SO FAR that is


00Z 1st June CMC/GEM so far not much different from last run
system forms same time as last run
slight change in track a slight shift E
SO FAR that is
Crow for all the no's against the poster who said last night that Andres might have been a major!
Hello everyone! Glad to be back and looking forward to an interesting exchange of information, ideas, and a few laughs. Here we go!
Going with 7-5- with 2 majors.
Oops, don't observe DST. Oh well :-(
Happy Hurricane Season to central times folks. Everyone have a safe and fun season. :) :)
Quoting 41. wunderkidcayman:



00Z 1st June CMC/GEM so far not much different from last run
system forms same time as last run
slight change in track a slight shift E
SO FAR that is


ok so slight E within the Caribbean but then once in Bahamas it turns back to how it tracked last run
Andres looks to have intensified further over the past few hours. 130kt?

Link
little music to the party. Turn up. :) :) :) :O :O
Thanks max
Quoting 47. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Andres looks to have intensified further over the past few hours. 130kt?




But is he going to make it to the next advisory?
Quoting 35. wunderkidcayman:

BTW guy the TCHP in the Caribbean is the highest in the past 5 years at this point

2010


2011


2012


2013


2014


2015

This year has the smallest pool and 2010 has the highest numbers.
Quoting 48. HurricaneAndre:

Link
little music to the party. Turn up. :) :) :) :O :O



here is more party music

Link

Link

Link

Link
Quoting 52. CANE2015:

For those of you along the East Coast, it's OFFICIAL..........HAPPY 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON!!!!!!!!!!! Whoop, whoop!!!

May this be the year in which the conus FINALLY breaks its atrocious hurricane drought, which has been plaguing us for nearly 10 years now.

FYI: Remember that the infamous '92 season was supposed to be as inactive as this one is forecast to be, yet in spite of that, a certain ''storm'' came along and for all intends and purposes, obliterated extreme southeastern Florida......I'll leave it at that.......hint, hint.

At any rate, I look forward to experiencing all of the craziness that awaits us over the course of the next six months on this blog.

May the fun begin, boys and girls!!!
Welcome Cane2015, make yourself at home and make sure to follow the rules of the road. If you have any questions or need something, just ask.
Quoting 15. MaxWeather:

20 MINUTES everyone... that's it.. 20 minutes! It's over when the Eastern Time clock hits midnight
My chart is coming to an end... hurricane season about to start


154th

Koritheman - 155th
Sorry max! If I can still get in (not on eat coast time) I am shooting for 8-3-1. If not, so be it. I win either way! ☺
Quoting 52. CANE2015:

For those of you along the East Coast, it's OFFICIAL..........HAPPY 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON!!!!!!!!!!! Whoop, whoop!!!

May this be the year in which the conus FINALLY breaks its atrocious hurricane drought, which has been plaguing us for nearly 10 years now.

FYI: Remember that the infamous '92 season was supposed to be as inactive as this one is forecast to be, yet in spite of that, a certain ''storm'' came along and for all intends and purposes, obliterated extreme southeastern Florida......I'll leave it at that.......hint, hint.

At any rate, I look forward to experiencing all of the craziness that awaits us over the course of the next six months on this blog.

May the fun begin, boys and girls!!!

hello welcome
Of course they don't mention it.

000 ABNT20 KNHC 010524 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2015 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation -------------------------------------------------- ----------- Ana AH-nah Larry LAIR-ree Bill bill Mindy MIN-dee Claudette klaw-DET Nicholas NIH-kuh-luss Danny DAN-ee Odette oh-DEHT Erika EHR-ih-kuh Peter PEE-tur Fred frehd Rose rohz Grace grayss Sam sam Henri ahn-REE Teresa tuh-REE-suh Ida EYE-duh Victor VIK-tur Joaquin wah-KEEN Wanda WAHN-duh Kate kayt The Atlantic season got off to an early start this year, with Tropical Storm Ana forming in May. The next named storm that forms this season will be named Bill. This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a Special Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to provide hourly information in between public advisories when watches or warnings are in effect and when the center of the tropical cyclone can be reliably tracked by coastal radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are available on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Twitter notifications on select National Hurricane Center products for the Atlantic are available via the handle @NHC_Atlantic. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed is available at www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. $$ Forecaster Brown
I don't usually step into these discussions (not my forte), but here's my 2 cents:

Quoting 28. HurricaneAndre:


Weak but there, the run is still going though.


In response to comment #59 of yours Andre, the NHC might not be taking the GFS' runs as an actual potential solution. In that particular shot, it positions the Low directly over Cuba...a Center of Circulation, if evident, would not survive the crossing of Cuba's Mountains and hills at that strength.

Only time will tell, I was doubtful of Ana, but she formed.

Just seems odd to me that the GFS thinks a weak disturbance can move NE over Cuba, and in 30 hours be strengthening to the NE of the Bahamas at this time of year.
well a little bit disappointing but yet not 100% surprised

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010524
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2015 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Ana AH-nah Larry LAIR-ree
Bill bill Mindy MIN-dee
Claudette klaw-DET Nicholas NIH-kuh-luss
Danny DAN-ee Odette oh-DEHT
Erika EHR-ih-kuh Peter PEE-tur
Fred frehd Rose rohz
Grace grayss Sam sam
Henri ahn-REE Teresa tuh-REE-suh
Ida EYE-duh Victor VIK-tur
Joaquin wah-KEEN Wanda WAHN-duh
Kate kayt

The Atlantic season got off to an early start this year, with
Tropical Storm Ana forming in May. The next named storm that
forms this season will be named Bill.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1
AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical
Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued
every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a
Special Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to
provide hourly information in between public advisories when
watches or warnings are in effect and when the center of the
tropical cyclone can be reliably tracked by coastal radar.
Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be
found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Twitter
notifications on select National Hurricane Center products for the
Atlantic are available via the handle @NHC_Atlantic. Information
about our Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. You can also interact with NHC on
Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.

$$
Forecaster Brown

well they may mention it later today or tomorrow


June rainfall in So Cal?
Quoting 45. HurricaneAndre:

Happy Hurricane Season to central times folks. Everyone have a safe and fun season. :) :)

Finally here!
Likely 1.3C on this weeks update by the CPC. This is why you have to be careful with using the CDAS maps on Levi's site has they seem to be wrong more than right. If you want a more accurate representation then use the TAO.


Hello everybody I'm back!!!!!! I missed everybody! it's that time once again! HURRICANE SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY STARTED! I'm ready to rumble!
East PAC doing good early again

So you wonder why all of this warming in Nino 3.4 well you can thank a strong WWB moving across this region. I tried to tell people that this this past week but they wouldn't listen. As I said Levi has issues with that CDAS product he has on his site.


Finished May with 11.27" at my location, all of which fell after May 12th. I'd say the rainy season is here for W C FL.
oh.oh.less.rain.forecast...e.cen.fl
future.claudette..western.gulf?
Happy June 1 guys! Andres likely near peak now, what an awesome storm. NHC noting that it has some characteristics of an annular hurricane, although I wouldn't say it's fully annular.

Gem and Gfs both have something in the same spot at 126 hours,one stronger than the other....
Quoting 62. nwobilderburg:



June rainfall in So Cal?


And I was told in here the rainy season was over March 1St. Looks like all bets are off.
Quoting 87. trunkmonkey:



And I was told in here the rainy season was over March 1St. Looks like all bets are off.
Which bets? California's rainfall deficit can measured in feet; I'm afraid a bit of drizzle and light rain (that's what's in the official NWS forecast discussion) isn't going to be of much help. Of course, at this point, any precipitation is welcome...but a man dying of thirst needs a canteen full of water, not a near-empty eyedropper.
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:

Likely 1.3C on this weeks update by the CPC. This is why you have to be careful with using the CDAS maps on Levi's site has they seem to be wrong more than right. If you want a more accurate representation then use the TAO.





I don't appreciate you consistently claiming that my plots are inaccurate. They are not so, as I have explained several times. Different datasets, different averaging periods. Your plots did not show the transient cooling because they are weekly averages that washed the cooling out. CDAS daily values are now back up to the weekly averages portrayed by other datasets, although a CDAS weekly average would indeed be slightly cooler than the BOM dataset. The reason for this is simply that they are different sets of data. One uses buoys, and the other uses buoys and satellite obs.

Quoting 33. HurricaneAndre:


Later in the run.


Bah, fish.
Quoting 91. Levi32:



I don't appreciate you consistently claiming that my plots are inaccurate. They are not so, as I have explained several times. Different datasets, different averaging periods. Your plots did not show the transient cooling because they are weekly averages that washed the cooling out. CDAS daily values are now back up to the weekly averages portrayed by other datasets, although a CDAS weekly average would indeed be slightly cooler than the BOM dataset. The reason for this is simply that they are different sets of data. One uses buoys, and the other uses buoys and satellite obs.




Levi it is what it is your plots are not correct with using the CDAS. The CPC update below for June 1st does not show a massive drop across Nino 1&2.

Text version comes later. Sorry Ric!



If we used your CDAS plots then we would get this below which isn't even close to matching any other product used by the CPC or the BOM agency.



HRRR model showing over 4 inches of rain for portions of inland FL tonight. Looks like the seabreeze will make it's way more inland and give Tampa Bay a slight break before a wet day on Tuesday.
The reason why so many on here lose bets is because they consistently use the CDAS when I prove time and time again that they are not correct.

This by Reyonlds & others below actually matches the TAO more than the CDAS plots.






Also look at this New Kelvin Wave. Yikes this means business. Goes to show you what persistent Westerly Wind anomalies will do

Good Morning on the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season as Andres is on the move in the E-Pac. For those who missed it (and I heard Dr. Elsner on the radio this morning), he is one of world's experts on hurricanes and modeling issue (out of FSU) and he recently published a paper in the Nature Climate Change Journal on the issue of global warming and tropical storms. His research is suggesting that we will see fewer but more intense high-end/cat storms in a warming world and this was based on extensive statistical modeling and research. Enclosing a blub on the research which was published this past May. He suggested in the radio interview that we might see less storms in a warming world but more property damage from intense storms.

Climate change may be the driving force behind fewer, yet more powerful hurricanes and tropical storms, says a Florida State geography professor.

In a paper published today by Nature Climate Change, Professor Jim Elsner and his former graduate student Namyoung Kang found that rising ocean temperatures are having an effect on how many tropical storms and hurricanes develop each year.

"We're seeing fewer hurricanes, but the ones we do see are more intense," Elsner said. "When one comes, all hell can break loose."

Prior to this research, there had been some discussions among scientists about how warmer ocean temperatures affected the intensity of a hurricane. Elsner and Kang wanted to further explore that concept as well as the number of storms that occurred each year.

Hurricanes can form when ocean waters are 79 degrees Fahrenheit or more. As the warm water evaporates, it provides the energy a storm needs to become a hurricane. Higher temperatures mean higher levels of energy, which would ultimately affect wind speed.

Specifically, Elsner and Kang projected that over the past 30 years, storm speeds have increased on average by 1.3 meters per second or 3 miles per hour and there were 6.1 fewer storms than there would have been if land and water temperatures had remained constant.

"It's basically a tradeoff between frequency and intensity," Elsner said.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Earth is roughly 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was last century.

Elsner and Kang said the yearly temperatures can also be a good indicator of what's yet to come in a given storm season.

"In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones are likely to occur," said Kang, now deputy director of the National Typhoon Center in South Korea. "In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones."

Hurricane ANDRES is likey at 150 to 155mph wish will likey be the peak for the storm right now
Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Levi it is what it is your plots are not correct with using the CDAS. The CPC update below for June 1st does not show a massive drop across Nino 1&2.

Text version comes later. Sorry Ric!

If we used your CDAS plots then we would get this below which isn't even close to matching any other product used by the CPC or the BOM agency.




I suppose you didn't look at the TAO buoy on the equator at 95W, in the Nino 1+2 region which you claim has not cooled, as CDAS says it has.

In fact, it has:

Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning on the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season as Ana is on the move in the E-Pac.  For those who missed it (and I heard Dr. Elsner on the radio this morning), he is one of world's experts on hurricanes and modeling issue (out of FSU) and he recently published a paper in the Nature Climate Change Journal on the issue of global warming and tropical storms.  His research is suggesting that we will see fewer but more intense high-end/cat storms in a warming world and this was based on extensive statistical modeling and research.  Enclosing a blub on the research which was published this past May.  He suggested in the radio interview that we might see less storms in a warming world but more property damage from intense storms.

Climate change may be the driving force behind fewer, yet more powerful hurricanes and tropical storms, says a Florida State geography professor.

In a paper published today by Nature Climate Change, Professor Jim Elsner and his former graduate student Namyoung Kang found that rising ocean temperatures are having an effect on how many tropical storms and hurricanes develop each year.

"We're seeing fewer hurricanes, but the ones we do see are more intense," Elsner said. "When one comes, all hell can break loose."

Prior to this research, there had been some discussions among scientists about how warmer ocean temperatures affected the intensity of a hurricane. Elsner and Kang wanted to further explore that concept as well as the number of storms that occurred each year.

Hurricanes can form when ocean waters are 79 degrees Fahrenheit or more. As the warm water evaporates, it provides the energy a storm needs to become a hurricane. Higher temperatures mean higher levels of energy, which would ultimately affect wind speed.

Specifically, Elsner and Kang projected that over the past 30 years, storm speeds have increased on average by 1.3 meters per second—or 3 miles per hour—and there were 6.1 fewer storms than there would have been if land and water temperatures had remained constant.

"It's basically a tradeoff between frequency and intensity," Elsner said.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Earth is roughly 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was last century.

Elsner and Kang said the yearly temperatures can also be a good indicator of what's yet to come in a given storm season.

"In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones are likely to occur," said Kang, now deputy director of the National Typhoon Center in South Korea. "In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones."



ana? dont you mean Hurricane ANDRES?
Quoting 92. MahFL:



Bah, fish.


not a fish
because it impacts land in the NW Caribbean notably Cuba then Bahamas
hardly call that a fish

Fish Storm: A tropical cyclone that forms, strengthens, peaks, weakens and dissipate without impacting any landmass
Quoting 91. Levi32:



I don't appreciate you consistently claiming that my plots are inaccurate. They are not so, as I have explained several times. Different datasets, different averaging periods. Your plots did not show the transient cooling because they are weekly averages that washed the cooling out. CDAS daily values are now back up to the weekly averages portrayed by other datasets, although a CDAS weekly average would indeed be slightly cooler than the BOM dataset. The reason for this is simply that they are different sets of data. One uses buoys, and the other uses buoys and satellite obs.




I've followed the blog for years and just joined recently. I appreciate all your posts as they are accurate and informative plus you never attack anyone. The blogger who consistently attacks you should be banned in my opinion as for over a year he continually bashes people. Not sure what the mods are doing. Anyways, cheers.
Quoting 98. Levi32:



I suppose you didn't look at the TAO buoy on the equator at 95W, in the Nino 1+2 region which you claim has not cooled, as CDAS says it has.

In fact, it has.




I'm not saying it hasn't cooled but your plots while using the CDAS data shows a drop from 2.3C to 0.6C. Seems a little drastic if you ask me. I can see a cooling to maybe 1.8C or even 2.0C but 0.6C?
And finally looking East towards Africa. It remains to be seen whether we will see a healthy looking ITCZ-Wave Train this year come the peak of the Atlantic season but it looks promising so far as compared to this time last year:


Quoting 101. WilmingtonWx:



I've followed the blog for years and just joined recently. I appreciate all your posts as they are accurate and informative plus you never attack anyone. The blogger who consistently attacks you should be banned in my opinion as for over a year he continually bashes people. Not sure what the mods are doing. Anyways, cheers.


No one is bashing anyone first of all and secondly it was Levi & others over a week ago that were challenging me saying that Nino 3.4 has warmed when infact its warming pretty fast now. My point is that the CDAS plots he uses are subject to failure.
Quoting 99. Tazmanian:



ana? dont you mean Hurricane ANDRES?


Corrected................Thank You.
Quoting 102. StormTrackerScott:



I'm not saying it hasn't cooled but your plots while using the CDAS data shows a drop from 2.3C to 0.6C. Seems a little drastic if you ask me. I can see a cooling to maybe 1.8C or even 2.0C but 0.6C?


Look at the plot I just gave you. The buoy shows a drop in raw SST of at least 2.0°C during the last 2 weeks of May. CPC weekly averages will not have shown this quick drop-off yet. Perhaps next week.
Quoting 98. Levi32:



I suppose you didn't look at the TAO buoy on the equator at 95W, in the Nino 1+2 region which you claim has not cooled, as CDAS says it has.

In fact, it has.



Scott just wants to be right and go on like he is the El Nino god
which he is not infact not even close just the opposite

it would be hilarious if it ever cooled down back to weak El Nino to near neutral by Fall Scotts face would be the joke of a lifetime
Quoting 106. Levi32:



Look at the plot I just gave you. The buoy shows a drop in raw SST of at least 2.0°C during the last 2 weeks of May. CPC weekly averages will not have shown this quick drop-off yet. Perhaps next week.


I agree that there is a drop as it is supported by the TAO below but not to 0.6C. What you are ssing across Nino 1&2 are easterlies ahead of a very strong WWB across Nino 3.4 and this burst is heading east toward regions 1&2. All I am saying Levi and its nothing against you is that the plots by the CDAS seem off & it seems its been like this for awhile now.

TAO below does show the 2C anomalies shifting west toward regions 3.4 & Nino 3. Does appear a drop to 1.5C to 1.8C has occurred but not to 0.6C

GLad to say I have a new roof and trimmed trees on my little slice of Florida heaven. Now today one of the last things i need to get prepared is installing a sump pump in my crawl space. THat's where the nimrods ran the AC ducting on the addition that was added in 70's. We get such a high ground water level in summer that we get standing water or in extremes, inches of water pooling under there. It has swamped the whole ac works twice in past 8 years I owned.
Plus, And I'm adding some runoff channels from backyard to the street. Last September my location in Orlando received about 3" of rain in an hour that totally flooded our street and was even over the sidewalks at the corner I live on. That isn;t out of ordinary for afternoon T'storms but we had a wet summer already. Hope this year I'm better prepared for the new norms we see with the weather.

Happy Hurricane Season everyone! LEt this one be quiet!
Quoting 107. wunderkidcayman:


Scott just wants to be right and go on like he is the El Nino god
which he is not infact not even close just the opposite

it would be hilarious if it ever cooled down back to weak El Nino to near neutral by Fall Scotts face would be the joke of a lifetime


I've heard this by many on here all year so far and there will not be nuetral conditions by Fall but good try Kid.

here are this weeks # from the CPC

27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1

Nino1+2 2.6
Nino3 1.4

Nino3.4 1.3

Nino 4 1.1

from here


Link


Quoting 111. Tazmanian:


here are this weeks # from the CPC

27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1

Nino1 2 2.6
Nino3 1.4

Nino3.4 1.3

Nino 4 1.1

from here


Link





Well on our way to Strong El-Nino Taz looks like it will be here later this month. I suspect well end the month at Nino 3.4 @ 1.5C to 1.7C. This forecast has weight too as there is another Down Welling Kelvin Wave quickly organizing. Shows up well on today's update.

Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:



Well on our way to Strong El-Nino Taz looks like it will be here later this month. I suspect well end the month at Nino 3.4 @ 1.5C to 1.7C. This forecast has weight too as there is another Down Welling Kelvin Wave quickly organizing. Shows up well on today's update.


this all so points out the CDMA maps are 100% wrong there is no cooling whats so ever there is more warming then cooling going on
114. yoboi
Quoting 90. Neapolitan:

Which bets? California's rainfall deficit can measured in feet; I'm afraid a bit of drizzle and light rain (that's what's in the official NWS forecast discussion) isn't going to be of much help. Of course, at this point, any precipitation is welcome...but a man dying of thirst needs a canteen full of water, not a near-empty eyedropper.


The bets with the realist that there would be another failed forecast....And yes they are adding up daily...
well...congrats to scottie....i'll be taking tuesday and wednesday off as part of our bet..........he may not get many right...but he got the one that counted.....congrats
i think Andres is trying too make a run for cat 5 but i say its at lest a good 150 to 155 mph storm right now

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 15:30:43 N Lon : 120:02:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 932.8mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.9 6.9
Kid if you think any way shape or form we will head to weak El-Nino/neutral conditions by Fall then you need to take a look at this as this is no 2014. Warm pool this is growing and expanding at deep depths. Meaning there is going to be a long supply of warm anomalies to surface this year.

2014


2015
Climate scientist Paul Beckwith reports on recent spikes in Arctic methane:

Arctic methane skyrocketing.
EP, 02, 2015060112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1041W, 35, 1004, TS
Quoting 117. StormTrackerScott:

Kid if you think any way shape or form we will head to weak El-Nino/neutral conditions by Fall then you need to take a look at this as this is no 2014. Warm pool this is growing and expanding at deep depths. Meaning there is going to be a long supply of warm anomalies to surface this year.

2014


2015




dont wast your time with him its better then this ignore him and move on
Quoting 115. ricderr:

well...congrats to scottie....i'll be taking tuesday and wednesday off as part of our bet..........he may not get many right...but he got the one that counted.....congrats


Thanks Ric your a good guy and feel free to blog if you wish. I think these CDAS maps are throwing many for a loop. I remember this last year when I got hosed when they showed massive warming to 1.2C for Nino 3.54 only to have to CPC come out and say nope its only @ 0.6C.
Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:



Thanks Ric your a good guy and feel free to blog if you wish. I think these CDAS maps are throwing many for a loop. I remember this last year when I got hosed when they showed massive warming to 1.2C for Nino 3.54 only to have to CPC come out and say nope its only @ 0.6C.


dont you mean 2.6 not 0.6?
Quoting 123. Tazmanian:



dont you mean 2.6 not 0.6?


On Levi's CDAS graph it shows 0.6C. A 2C difference!
Good morning! We are having some scattered showers here this morning. In the Miami area at least from Kendall to Cutler Ridge as I drove through it on my way into the office this morning.
Good Morning:

June 1, 2015 - The official beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is here!

Although predictions show that we will have fewer named storms this year, always remember it only takes one significant hurricane strike to make it a bad year.

If the 2015 hurricane season is similar to past years when the Atlantic basin experienced fewer named storms (1956-1957, 1965, 1972-1975, 1983, 1986, 1991-1992, 1997), residents living along the U.S. Gulf Coast or Florida ... will have to especially keep a close "eye" on the tropics!

It has happened before, and it can happen again. Have a plan, and be ready.

It could hit home!



STS is obsessed with El-Nino, but that doesn't mean he's obnoxious about it. Has been a very interesting follow and as this early season version has evolved, the effects it's had over the world, especially here in Texas and Oklahoma have been dramatic. Will this evolve anything like 97 is the question. Surely not, and if it does; do Texas and Oklahoma get it again in the following months. Have enjoyed following the posts on El-Nino Scott. Has been an entertaining narrative to follow.
latest run
HWRF
slightly weaker but no difference
Quoting 110. StormTrackerScott:



I've heard this by many on here all year so far and there will not be nuetral conditions by Fall but good try Kid.
Quoting 117. StormTrackerScott:

Kid if you think any way shape or form we will head to weak El-Nino/neutral conditions by Fall then you need to take a look at this as this is no 2014. Warm pool this is growing and expanding at deep depths. Meaning there is going to be a long supply of warm anomalies to surface this year.

2014


2015



woah dude take couple of sleeping pills and chill

I didn't say it will be neutral conditions by fall but I did say your face would be so funny if it was to because you keep on going on about your apocalyptic strong El Nino

which I don't buy one bit

oh and that sub surface warm pool I don't it strengthening much in face a bit opposite
Quoting 130. LargoFl:




right now not so favored but give it time

Quoting 131. LargoFl:




rain galore!!
Thanks Ric your a good guy and feel free to blog if you wish. I think these CDAS maps are throwing many for a loop. I remember this last year when I got hosed when they showed massive warming to 1.2C for Nino 3.54 only to have to CPC come out and say nope its only @ 0.6C.

than scottie...but i don't welch on a bet.....and yes.....you got hosed last year.....although i think you're still wrong about intensity......the cfsv2 has dropped another point in a week...the corrected version is now below strong levels....the SOI is once again racing back to neutral.....and the waters at and north of australia are still not anywhere close to where they should be for a strong event.....








New paper by Prof. Francis

Rapid Arctic ice loss linked to extreme weather changes in Europe and US

Link
Its the first of June guys and already we are arguing ! Well here in Belize it looks like it is also the first day of the rainy season as we are currently getting rain and a tropical wave is east of Belize .
Its just to bad the Belize weather Radar is out of service and with government slow as they are in this country its doubtfull we will have radar this hurricane season
139. JRRP
Quoting 110. StormTrackerScott:



I've heard this by many on here all year so far and there will not be nuetral conditions by Fall but good try Kid.


And we've been hearing on hear about a major El Niño for almost 2 years. So I guess it's a tie:)
All you who have challenged Scott on his El-Nino predictions often have made it enjoyable too with a good back and forth on what's really happening.
Quoting 133. wunderkidcayman:



right now not so favored but give it time



rain galore!!
yes around me I sure could use it,tomorrow looks really wet 70% chance they say
1st June 2015, Atlantic Hurricane Season begins. What does it hold? No one knows. Some are excited others dread the thought. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Be alert, don't be caught off guard. Pleasant good morning to every one, I trust that you will have a pleasant day.
144. txjac
This post is for Barb

Link

German Asparagus Pickers Mistaken for Armed Gang
MAINZ, Germany — Police in northeast Germany raced to what they thought was a 10-strong gang armed with knives and sticks over the weekend.

But much to their surprise, officers instead found a group of asparagus pickers walking to their lunch break.
Quoting 140. Bucsboltsfan:



And we've been hearing on hear about a major El Niño for almost 2 years. So I guess it's a tie:)


You just joined last month; were you lurking the last two years, or changed your handle.........Just curious.
146. FOREX
Quoting 143. islandgirls:

1st June 2015, Atlantic Hurricane Season begins. What does it hold? No one knows. Some are excited others dread the thought. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Be alert, don't be caught off guard. Pleasant good morning to every one, I trust that you will have a pleasant day.


Local WMBB Meteorologist mentioned last night about possible development next week in W. Caribbean. Anyone know of this?
Quoting 146. FOREX:



Local WMBB Meteorologist mentioned last night about possible development next week in W. Caribbean. Anyone know of this?


This week yes not next week
Btw we are at the start of new week so I guess next week is this week so yes

See 129 of one of the forecast
148. jpsb
Quoting 107. wunderkidcayman:


Scott just wants to be right and go on like he is the El Nino god
which he is not infact not even close just the opposite

it would be hilarious if it ever cooled down back to weak El Nino to near neutral by Fall Scotts face would be the joke of a lifetime


I was following the El Nino debate last year but since I use lots of sources I was told to watch the very cold water coming from the Southern Ocean that there was a good chance that cold water would cool the warm pool sitting off the coast of South America and sure enough exactly that happened. There is a lot of very cold water surrounding Antarctica more then enough to cool down even a super El Nino should a strong current decide to carry that cold water north.
Hello, I'm new here on Weather Underground. I am only 13 years old however I've been watching and tracking weather since I was about 8. I've been reading Dr. Masters blog for a good two years now, incredible writer, he is! I live in the small town of Andalusia, AL, I track any thunderstorm that dares to come near here. I hope for a good experience here on WU!! Thanks.
Quoting 149. Grothar:





This can be good, or this can be bad. It depends on which way its moving.
well 3 or more models are hinting at something Saturday,guess we'll see what happens over this coming weekend
153. jpsb
Quoting 136. ColoradoBob1:



New paper by Prof. Francis

Rapid Arctic ice loss linked to extreme weather changes in Europe and US

Link


Rapidly melting?



Looks to me like Arctic sea ice has been holding steady at slightly below normal since 2005. Currently only 800,000 sq km below it's 30 year mean. In fact I see an upward tend (in minimums) starting around 2011.
Quoting 152. LargoFl:

well 3 or more models are hinting at something Saturday,guess we'll see what happens over this coming weekend


Well starts around late Tues Wed late Wed at the latest but 3 or more model put the system in generally the same area on Saturday

Quoting 151. K8eCane:




This can be good, or this can be bad. It depends on which way its moving.


Hi Gro-

We can sure use the rain here in East Central Florida.
Do you guys think that we'll see Bill this week or just an elongated area of low pressure bringing some rain to south florida?
Quoting 150. TCweatherman:

Hello, I'm new here on Weather Underground. I am only 13 years old however I've been watching and tracking weather since I was about 8. I've been reading Dr. Masters blog for a good two years now, incredible writer, he is! I live in the small town of Andalusia, AL, I track any thunderstorm that dares to come near here. I hope for a good experience here on WU!! Thanks.


Welcome! I hope you enjoy the experience. It can get a little rough in here at times but keep cool and you will be OK. There are a lot of good people here with a lot of good information.
Quoting 155. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-

We can sure use the rain here in East Central Florida.


We haven't had a drop in weeks. Everything is so dry. I do wish the rainy season would start. It is looking more and more like we might get a little relief this week.
2C anomalies now beginning to pop up across Nino 3.4. These Westerly Wind anomalies are warming Nino 3.4 very fast. As it stands we are really surging further past 1997 so far. Does this trend continue hard to say as we would need to see these WWB continue to come across the Pacific.



Quoting 156. TCweatherman:

Do you guys think that we'll see Bill this week or just an elongated area of low pressure bringing some rain to south florida?


Eventually we could see Bill likely we would see it from Thurs onward
Well starts around late Tues Wed late Wed at the latest but 3 or more model put the system in generally the same area on Saturday



yeehaw.........just my luck...so folks...you can count on this one happening....i'm flying into tampa on sunday...up to crystal river...and then i'll be in south florida on monday......since i've left i don't think i've come back without some sort of major weather happening either here or there
Quoting 153. jpsb:



Rapidly melting?



Looks to me like Arctic sea ice has been holding steady at slightly below normal since 2005. Currently only 800,000 sq km below it's 30 year mean. In fact I see an upward tend (in minimums) starting around 2011.


You are clueless, or a really bad troll bro.

NSIDC National Snow & Ice DATA Center


19 March 2015

Arctic sea ice maximum reaches lowest extent on record


Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum on February 25, 2015 at 14.54 million square kilometers (5.61 million square miles).
Just incredible.

Experimental Consensus models puts development at 21%. Of course, when I mentioned this 5 days ago, I got laughed off the blog. :)

The Blue line is 2015

Quoting 164. Grothar:

Experimental Consensus models puts development at 21%. Of course, when I mentioned this 5 days ago, I got laughed off the blog. :)





Ha-Hah'
Quoting 157. MiamiNative:



Welcome! I hope you enjoy the experience. It can get a little rough in here at times but keep cool and you will be OK. There are a lot of good people here with a lot of good information.

Also, welcome everyone to the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season!! (even though it really began with the formation of Ana, today's the official start).
Thanks I'm still figuring this out! Haha, oh yea my name is Thomas Clark but you guys can call me TC.
Quoting 162. Patrap:



You are clueless, or a really bad troll bro.

NSIDC National Snow & Ice DATA Center


19 March 2015

Arctic sea ice maximum reaches lowest extent on record


Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum on February 25, 2015 at 14.54 million square kilometers (5.61 million square miles).



Arctic sea ice extent for April 2015 averaged 14.0 million square kilometers (5.4 million square miles), the second lowest April ice extent in the satellite record. It is 810,000 square kilometers (313,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 15.0 million square kilometers (6.0 million square miles) and 80,000 square kilometers (31,000 square miles) above the previous record low for the month observed in 2007.


Ice extent remained below average in the Barents Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Bering Sea. Sea ice was slightly more extensive than average off Newfoundland, in the Davis Strait, and in the Labrador Sea. The Labrador Sea is an important breeding area for harp and hooded seals in early spring. More extensive ice in this region favors more seal cubs being fully weaned before the ice breaks up, increasing their chance of survival.

Seems the NHC and Basin Top Dog's want to begin the Atlantic Season starting May 1..

There has been some discussions on that behind the scenes by many

We should as we are seeing more storms form earlier than June 1, for a decade now.
Quoting 153. jpsb:



Rapidly melting?



Looks to me like Arctic sea ice has been holding steady at slightly below normal since 2005. Currently only 800,000 sq km below it's 30 year mean. In fact I see an upward tend (in minimums) starting around 2011.


Arctic sea ice disappearing at record rate
Coverage has fallen to a new low for this early in the year with the prospect of further melting in coming weeks.

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is at its lowest May level since records began in the 1980s.

Ice coverage around the North Pole is currently just 11.32m sq km, compared with a 30 year average of 12.5m sq km.

This figure is even lower than the 11.89m sq km of 2012, when sea ice coverage reached its lowest summer time level. Ice extent generally reaches its lowest level in mid September. In 2012 there were just 3.2m sq km of sea ice in the Arctic.


Link
Quoting 159. StormTrackerScott:

2C anomalies now beginning to pop up across Nino 3.4. These Westerly Wind anomalies are warming Nino 3.4 very fast. As it stands we are really surging further past 1997 so far. Does this trend continue hard to say as we would need to see these WWB continue to come across the Pacific.






Keep dreaming
Lol
2.0 in 3.4 lol lol
Unusual to see such a high intensity for a storm not fully formed in 02E. Looks like this could be a big one going toward the Baja









Quoting 173. wunderkidcayman:



Keep dreaming
Lol
2.0 in 3.4 lol lol


Likely heading for a 1.4C or 1.5C reading next week by the CPC as there are clearly 2C anomalies now showing up across Nino 3.4. As long as these Westerly Winds keep plugging away at the Central Pacific we will continue to see Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 regions rise all month. Very quickly heading toward Strong El-Nino now.
Quoting 150. TCweatherman:

Hello, I'm new here on Weather Underground. I am only 13 years old however I've been watching and tracking weather since I was about 8. I've been reading Dr. Masters blog for a good two years now, incredible writer, he is! I live in the small town of Andalusia, AL, I track any thunderstorm that dares to come near here. I hope for a good experience here on WU!! Thanks.


Welcome to the site...
Andalusia, AL - For a moment I thought of Andalusia Spain lol
I had been reading this site for 4 years before joining in 2011. I have another handle now
Arctic sea ice reduction: the evidence, models and impacts

Recent years have seen dramatic changes in the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. The last 8 years (2007–2014) have seen the eight lowest sea ice summer area extents in the continuous satellite record, which extends back to 1979. The decrease in sea ice area has also been accompanied by a decrease in sea ice volume, as measured by satellite altimetry and field observations.

Link
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6m6 minutes ago
Be prepared! Betsy 65 Audrey 57 & Agnes 72 were in all in strong #ElNino years- These were very damaging #hurricanes!
Edit: Dang it Scott beat me to it. Lol. old and slow this morning :-)
Betsy in 65' was a Bad Major and my first. Din't see much of Dad for a few weeks as He was a Vol Fireman then
99% ??

182. jpsb
Quoting 162. Patrap:



You are clueless, or a really bad troll bro.

NSIDC National Snow & Ice DATA Center


19 March 2015

Arctic sea ice maximum reaches lowest extent on record


Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum on February 25, 2015 at 14.54 million square kilometers (5.61 million square miles).


Yes I am clueless I use Snow and ice data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, NSIDC, U. Bremen

Try it sometime here is a link

As for the "record" minimum that lasted about a day and a half, might very well have been bad data or a bad interpretation of the data. If you link on my link and view the interactive chart you will see what I am talking about.
Quoting 181. Grothar:

99% ??




I think they meant 99.99% but can't always be 100% sure. lol.
Happy season to all and happy 7th to me
Peace to all who witnessed
Blessings to he who gave me away
185. jpsb
Quoting 165. Patrap:

The Blue line is 2015



Ice extent just tells you how hard the wind is blowing or how strong the currents are. Extent is worthless. Area (which is the metic I use) tells you HOW MUCH ICE YOU HAVE!
Quoting 182. jpsb:



Yes I am clueless I use Snow and ice data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, NSIDC, U. Bremen

Try it sometime here is a link

As for the "record" minimum that lasted about a day and a half, might very well have been bad data or a bad interpretation of the data. If you link on my link and view the interactive chart you will see what I am talking about.


No thanks, I know yer schtick...and sources.


187. yoboi
Quoting 148. jpsb:



I was following the El Nino debate last year but since I use lots of sources I was told to watch the very cold water coming from the Southern Ocean that there was a good chance that cold water would cool the warm pool sitting off the coast of South America and sure enough exactly that happened. There is a lot of very cold water surrounding Antarctica more then enough to cool down even a super El Nino should a strong current decide to carry that cold water north.


I am curious how long the El Nino will last...I have seen predictions from a few months up to 18 yrs....
Quoting 185. jpsb:


Ice extent just tells you how hard the wind is blowing or how strong the currents are. Extent is worthless. Area (which is the metic I use) tells you HOW MUCH ICE YOU HAVE!


Where'd You come up with that load of Bull? Gonna need a source for that.
Quoting 176. MaxWeather:



Welcome to the site...
Andalusia, AL - For a moment I thought of Andalusia Spain lol
I had been reading this site for 4 years before joining in 2011. I have another handle now

Haha nope I live in Alabama that's a big difference from Spain.
The presence of an Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been known since 1950ish. The AO, which is influenced by ice melt, brings colder water into the NAO. Stating AO influences weather in lower latitudes is far short of brilliant.

All things are connected, especially in Earth's atmosphere. If ENSO's out of neutral, then the PDO, AO, NAO, all them O's are going to be. To say the Arctic ice situation is the driver of worldwide weather is possibly incorrect (Add: as it could be reaction to some other O force).

To those of you who made fun over me stating I had to leave "The Blog" to deal with mold in my home from all the May rain - you're building bad karma, buds. May the farce be with you.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6m6 minutes ago
Be prepared! Betsy 65 Audrey 57 & Agnes 72 were in all in strong #ElNino years- These were very damaging #hurricanes!


except that both formed in what now is anomalously cooler waters......would like to know what the water temps were back then
Quoting 190. Barefootontherocks:

The presence of an Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been known since 1950ish. The AO, which is influenced by ice melt, brings colder water into the NAO. Stating AO influences weather in lower latitudes is far short of brilliant.

All things are connected, especially in Earth's atmosphere. If ENSO's out of neutral, then the PDO, AO, NAO, all them O's are going to be. To say the Arctic ice situation is the driver of worldwide weather is possibly incorrect (Add: as it could be reaction to some other O force).

To those of you who made fun over me stating I had to leave "The Blog" to deal with mold in my home from all the May rain - you're building bad karma there, buds. May the farce be with you.


Thanks for the critique that falls short of actually addressing the study. I'm sure you'll put something more coherent together for the journal publication.
Record warm May for the "official" DC metro station at Washington National Airport. 73.2F average beats the 73.0F in 1991. It's unnerving when you're old enough to remember previous records being set. DCA is in an slowly intensifying heat island and the reality is probably closer to Baltimre (69.1) which is behind several other years
(1880 1991 and 1944 with means over 70) and several other 69+ years (couldn't sort the PDF chart). The Baltimore
station used to be urban and was moved to BWI several decades ago but the 1991 average was observed at BWI.




Here is a lil short video my Son took on the porch of Isaac impact on NOLA early.

At :24 secs in some may recognise the Flash and Hurricane Wind "Moan"...

The Flash is caused by the wind pushing the 2 Hot line wires together.

We lost power a short time later for 3 days.

One never forgets the Hurricane Moan under a door threshold, as that is common as rain.


Tis was the night of 28 August, 2012






I would seriously love to see the study that claims arctic sea ice extent is a valid proxy for wind speed and current strength. I'll be waiting for you to produce it, Jspb.
Quoting 187. yoboi:



I am curious how long the El Nino will last...I have seen predictions from a few months up to 18 yrs....


Pure ocean equation solutions (uncoupled with atmosphere) show a duration for these events of about three months. The atmosphere has a strong modulating effect on El Nino evolution, slowing it down so these events actually last about a year.
198. yoboi
Quoting 197. georgevandenberghe:



Pure ocean equation solutions (uncoupled with atmosphere) show a duration for these events of about three months. The atmosphere has a strong modulating effect on El Nino evolution, slowing it down so these events actually last about a year.



I agree 18 yrs seemed to be nothing more than hype and doom & gloom tactics....
199. jpsb
Quoting 188. Naga5000:



Where'd You come up with that load of Bull? Gonna need a source for that.


You can begin by reading What is the difference between sea ice area and extent?

Pay particular attention to the sentence that says

Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice

200. jpsb
Quoting 196. Naga5000:

I would seriously love to see the study that claims arctic sea ice extent is a valid proxy for wind speed and current strength. I'll be waiting for you to produce it, Jspb.


I am getting tried of doing your home work for you,

Changes in atmospheric dynamics and winds are an important driver of regional sea-ice trends.

Notice the "and winds?" Yup, studies are out there I will leave it to you to find them.

I would have thought it was intuitively obvious that winds move sea ice. I guess not.
201. jpsb
Quoting 198. yoboi:



I agree 18 yrs seemed to be nothing more than hype and doom & gloom tactics....


If I recall correctly it had been claimed that the last interglacial (much warmer then this one) was one long El Nino.
Quoting 200. jpsb:



I am getting tried of doing your home work for you,

Changes in atmospheric dynamics and winds are an important driver of regional sea-ice trends.

Notice the "and winds?" Yup, studies are out there I will leave it to you to find them.

I would have thought it was intuitively obvious that winds move sea ice. I guess not.

You're going to be in trouble, I can smell it. Ekman is quite a mystery to some who'd like to keep it everything a mystery ;)
Quoting 200. jpsb:



I am getting tried of doing your home work for you,

Changes in atmospheric dynamics and winds are an important driver of regional sea-ice trends.

Notice the "and winds?" Yup, studies are out there I will leave it to you to find them.

I would have thought it was intuitively obvious that winds move sea ice. I guess not.


You said sea ice extent measures "how hard the wind is blowing" and "how strong the currents are". Prove it, or shut up, you can try to move the goal posts all you want, but you made the statement.

Quoting 200. jpsb:



I am getting tried of doing your home work for you,

Changes in atmospheric dynamics and winds are an important driver of regional sea-ice trends.

Notice the "and winds?" Yup, studies are out there I will leave it to you to find them.

I would have thought it was intuitively obvious that winds move sea ice. I guess not.


Again, your statement wasn't that wind affected sea ice it was that extent measurse "how hard the wind was blowing". I'm pretty sure you don't have a clue what you are even talking about as usual. Seems like you are the one that needs some homework done. Deniers gonna deny.


ANOTHER STORM JUNE 9th 1007 mb, hmmmm...GEM/CMC MODEL.
JSPB, maybe you missed this, seems like you did:

"Scientists at NSIDC report extent because they are cautious about summertime values of ice concentration and area taken from satellite sensors. To the sensor, surface melt appears to be open water rather than water on top of sea ice. So, while reliable for measuring area most of the year, the microwave sensor is prone to underestimating the actual ice concentration and area when the surface is melting. To account for that potential inaccuracy, NSIDC scientists rely primarily on extent when analyzing melt-season conditions and reporting them to the public. That said, analyzing ice area is still quite valuable. Given the right circumstances, background knowledge, and scientific information on current conditions, it can provide an excellent sense of how much ice there really is “on the ground.”" Link


Please continue to arm wave and make inaccurate statements!
Quoting 101. WilmingtonWx:



I've followed the blog for years and just joined recently. I appreciate all your posts as they are accurate and informative plus you never attack anyone. The blogger who consistently attacks you should be banned in my opinion as for over a year he continually bashes people. Not sure what the mods are doing. Anyways, cheers.
If you do not like his post you can put him on your ignore list as I did a long time ago. I would put more faith in Levi's post as far as ENSO data is concerned or anything else regarding the weather.
Quoting 185. jpsb:


Ice extent just tells you how hard the wind is blowing or how strong the currents are. Extent is worthless. Area (which is the metic I use) tells you HOW MUCH ICE YOU HAVE!

No, area tells you no such thing. Volume tells you how much ice you have.

Area tells you how big a box would be if all the surface ice were compressed into one block.

Extent tells you over what area the ice actually is spread. It is the most commonly used metric. It is very useful to navigators.

Interestingly, the threshold for ice concentration in both area and extent is 15%. That means a grid (which is how these things are calculated) can be 84.999...% ice-free, yet that grid still gets counted as sea ice. The CT area that you prefer uses huge grid sizes (25 km). ADS-NIPR uses grids one-fourth that size (6.125 km). The upshot of that is that there is much more volatility in the CT daily figures.

We did just have a record low maximum. Your assertions are meaningless. Further, Arctic sea ice extent has been at a record low for...many days in a row now. (I can't remember or be bothered to look up how many). And it's not a "skin of the teeth" record, either.

Quoting 187. yoboi:



I am curious how long the El Nino will last...I have seen predictions from a few months up to 18 yrs....

No, you haven't. And you know you haven't. The fact that continue to spout that untruth is interesting. It may say things about you that you'd rather not have people think.
Quoting 208. Misanthroptimist:


No, you haven't. And you know you haven't. The fact that continue to spout that untruth is interesting. It may say things about you that you'd rather not have people think.