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Earth's 5th Deadliest Heat Wave in Recorded History Kills 1,826 in India

By: Jeff Masters 12:34 PM GMT on May 29, 2015

The death toll from India's horrid May heat wave has risen to 1,826, making this year's heat wave the second deadliest in India's recorded history--and the fifth deadliest in world history. According to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, India's only deadlier heat wave was in 1998, when 2,541 died. With over 400 deaths recorded in just the past day and the heat expected to continue over India for another week, the 1998 death toll could well be exceeded in this year's heat wave. However, death tolls from heat waves are very difficult to estimate, since excess heat is typically not listed as the primary cause of death in cases where the victim has a pre-existing condition such as heart or lung disease. For example, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) lists the total direct deaths from the U.S. heat wave of 1980 at 1,260, but estimates that the combined direct and indirect deaths (i.e., excess mortality) due to heat stress was 10,000. Below is the list of top ten deadliest heat waves in world history as compiled by EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, which uses direct deaths for their statistics, and not excess mortality.

The 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 1,826+
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) India, 2003: 1,210
9) India, 2002: 1,030
9) Greece and Turkey, 1987: 1,030

Note that the EM-DAT database may not be entirely reliable; for example, they list no heat deaths in the U.S. for the 1988 heat wave, while the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) lists 454 direct deaths and 5,000 combined direct and indirect deaths. The 2010 Japanese heat wave, which EM-DAT gives a death toll of 170 for, disagrees with the 1,718 total from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera alleges that the deadliest and most brutal heat wave Chinese history, in Eastern China in the summer 2013, had thousands of deaths which were not reported by the Chinese authorities. The official death toll was merely 40.


Figure 1. A young Indian child pours water on himself as he tries to cool himself off in New Delhi on May 28, 2015. Image credit: MONEY SHARMA/AFP/Getty Images.

It's the heat and the humidity
Temperatures across much of India have been 5°C (9°F) above average this May, with very high humidity. In many of the hardest-hit areas of eastern India, the heat index dropped below 100°F for only four hours each night for several consecutive days this week. This sort of day-after-day heat stress is very hard on vulnerable people, and leads to high mortality. For example, in Channai (Madras) on May 24, the high temperature reached 108°F and the heat index topped out at 123°F, and never dropped below 97°F the entire day. Far more extreme heat index values have been observed in some areas. For example, on May 23 at 14:30,  Bhubneshwar recorded a temperature of of 42.2°C (108°F) with a dew point of 29.3°C (84.7°F), giving an astonishing heat index of 62°C (143.6°F.) According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, a heat index of up to 65°C (149°F) has been measured at some stations in eastern India during the heat wave.


Figure 2. Progress of the monsoon towards India as of May 28, 2015 (green line) has been close to its average pace. If the monsoon follows its usual pace, it will move through the province hardest hit by this year's heat wave, Andhra Prahesh (shaded in yellow), by June 5. This province recorded 1,334 heat deaths as of May 29, 2015. Image credit: India Meteorological Department .

The monsoon is coming
This is the time of year when India's 1.2 billion people look beseechingly southwards, toward the advancing southwest monsoon. The monsoon's arrival brings rains that cool India's scorching May heat, and the monsoon's rains give life, providing 70 - 80% of the year’s total rainfall in just four months. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is forecasting that the arrival of the southwest monsoon at the southern tip of India will occur this weekend, on May 30. This is two days ahead of the average arrival date, June 1. The monsoon should move through the province hardest hit by this year's heat wave, Andhra Prahesh, by June 5. However, IMD is also forecasting a roughly doubled chance of below-average rains during the summer monsoon period, and predicts only 91 percent of the usual rainfall will occur. The problem: the atmospheric circulation patterns brought on by an El Niño event usually cause much reduced monsoon rains. The current borderline weak/moderate El Niño event is forecast to intensify this summer, and this is likely to cause a significant reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, more than 4.2 million people died in India between 1900 - 2014 due to droughts from failed monsoon rains, primarily during El Niño years. The five worst Indian monsoons for rainfall deficit:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India; the 3-year drought that began during the strong El Niño event of 1965 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass famine in India. For example, the fifth worst drought in India's history occurred in 2009, but did not result in serious food shortages--and neither would a similar failure of the monsoon this year. However, a weak monsoon could affect India’s fragile power supply, since the country is heavily dependent on hydropower. In 2012, a weak monsoon forced farmers to use huge amounts of power to pump groundwater to make up for lack of rain. The resulting strain on the power grid helped trigger a blackout that affected 600 million people. Fortunately, many reservoirs in India are above their 10-year average level heading into the summer.

Climate change and India
This year's deadly heat wave in India was made much more probable by the fact that Earth is experiencing its hottest temperatures on record--the past twelve months were the warmest twelve-month period in recorded history, and so was the January - April 2015 period. According to the India Meteorological Department, a warming climate increased heat waves in India by a third between 1961 to 2010. As the planet continues to warm due to human-caused global warming, heat waves will become more frequent and more intense, and heat-related deaths will soar unless we take strong measures to adapt. An April 2015 paper published in Regional Environmental Change, Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality, warned that "heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century." Perhaps a bigger concern for India with climate change is drought, though. Many climate models show that climate change might increase the average rainfall in India from the monsoon, but when dry years occur, the hotter temperatures accompanying the dry years will drive much more intense droughts capable of causing significant challenges to growing food in India.

Links
The May 27, 2015 post by Eric Holthaus of Slate discusses the India heat wave and climate change.

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.

Bob Henson will have a new post on the Texas/Oklahoma flood situation on Friday evening or Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Heat Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters. The intensification of this ongoing 2nd-year El Nino during spring (or in any part of the spring for that matter) is rather unusual in the historical record. Using ERSSTv4, I can only find 2 other events (1987-88, & 1905-06) that offer any precedent. Both of these multi-year El Ninos observed similar peaks in terms of intensity & timing, w/ 1905-06 peaking @ +1.69C in JAS & 1987-88 in ASO @ +1.57C. 1905-06's intensification thru the spring predictability is certainly more pronounced than 1987-88's in ERSSTv4 & is far more analogous to what's currently occurring. I think a similar solution to these events, with an unusually early peak in the late summer-fall near the strong threshold (+1.5C), is becoming more reasonable given what's transpired over the last few months.
Thanks Doc.Seems 2015 is off to be a very interesting weather year.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Meanwhile, TS Andres.

Heat waves can impact humans in subtle ways. Humans cool their bodies via sweating and when the dew point approaches normal body temperature (98.6F) tht is, around 35C, the sweat can no longer evaporate and cool the body. With sea surface temperatures above 30C typical in the tropics, dew points near the coast can be quite high. As global warming progresses and sea surface temperatures climb, one likely result is more deadly heat waves.

This will particularly impact workers who must perform their jobs outside exposed to the sun. There is already concern for sugarcane workers in Central America and Sri Lanka, who must cut the cane in such conditions. The Central American workers already must limit their hours in the fields, working from dawn to around noon after which working becomes impossible. As it is, they must drink 4 or 5 liters of water and hydration mix, to replace fluids that are lost by their bodies due to sweating. New findings suggest that even this limited working environment is causing them to die prematurely, with the appearance of a newly discovered health problem. Many of these workers are dying from kidney failure, which may be the result of their high fluid intake. While the cause of their illness is still unresolved, if the heat stress from their work turns out to be the cause, it would give yet another warning of the impending impacts of global warming. It's reasonable to conclude that in future, millions of agricultural workers could face an early death from working in such conditions.
GFS about 200 hours out. another storm in the EPAC.

From the previous blog...

Yoboi

The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..


This is 100% bovine excrement. It was a lie when you first said it and it is still a lie today. And it will remain a lie no matter how many times you repeat it.

There is not one single peer reviewed source that made any claims even remotely close to what you've said. The only thing close are projections for hurricane activity towards the END of the century, and it says the exact opposite (fewer but stronger storms).

There's being willfully ignorant and then there is outright dishonesty. You already have no credibility on the subject of climate change. Are you also looking to sabotage your credibility in everything else?
CMC 200 hours out. Potential system near FL.

Thank You Dr. A BBC reporter in India noted yesterday that many of the heat related deaths in India are due to the poor who often work in agriculture or construction etc. and who work for daily wages and cannot feed their families unless they work so the brave the heat regardless. The ultimate causes of death in these cases is probably heat stroke related.
The East Asian heatwave of 2013 is likely to have been the most deadly one. Never such a heat wave hit so many people. Going by the number of Europe 2003 and Russia/Ukraine 2010 there could have been a quarter million fatalities but alas as so often happens cause of death being heat is very often attributed to something else e.g. heart condition.
Link

For anyone interested in an update on all of the snow in Boston.
Thanks Doc. I remember all but one of them...Heat waves killed many animals too, and are not really tallied, but during some of the heat waves, millions of creatures may have been killed.
Quoting 7. Xyrus2000:

From the previous blog...

Yoboi

The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..


This is 100% bovine excrement. It was a lie when you first said it and it is still a lie today. And it will remain a lie no matter how many times you repeat it.

There is not one single peer reviewed source that made any claims even remotely close to what you've said. The only thing close are projections for hurricane activity towards the END of the century, and it says the exact opposite (fewer but stronger storms).

There's being willfully ignorant and then there is outright dishonesty. You already have no credibility on the subject of climate change. Are you also looking to sabotage your credibility in everything else?
Morning Xyrus..It is important to remember that a few here do this intentionally, and get off on the responses. I normally would not have even commented on it, but I can tell by now when something is under your skin so to speak...
14. jpsb
Quoting 7. Xyrus2000:

From the previous blog...

Yoboi

The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..


This is 100% bovine excrement. It was a lie when you first said it and it is still a lie today. And it will remain a lie no matter how many times you repeat it.

There is not one single peer reviewed source that made any claims even remotely close to what you've said. The only thing close are projections for hurricane activity towards the END of the century, and it says the exact opposite (fewer but stronger storms).

There's being willfully ignorant and then there is outright dishonesty. You already have no credibility on the subject of climate change. Are you also looking to sabotage your credibility in everything else?



You are in good company Al Gore agrees with you

"If you look at superstorm Sandy on October 29th, the ocean water east of New Jersey was nine degrees fahrenheit above average. That’s what put so much more energy into that storm. That’s what put so much more water vapor into that storm. Would there be a storm anyway? Maybe so. Would there be hurricanes and floods and droughts without man-made global warming? Of course. But they’re stronger now. The extreme events are more extreme. The hurricane scale used to be 1-5 and now they’re adding a 6. The fingerprint of man-made global warming is all over these storms and extreme weather events".
Quoting 7. Xyrus2000:

From the previous blog...

Yoboi

The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..


This is 100% bovine excrement. It was a lie when you first said it and it is still a lie today. And it will remain a lie no matter how many times you repeat it.

There is not one single peer reviewed source that made any claims even remotely close to what you've said. The only thing close are projections for hurricane activity towards the END of the century, and it says the exact opposite (fewer but stronger storms).

There's being willfully ignorant and then there is outright dishonesty. You already have no credibility on the subject of climate change. Are you also looking to sabotage your credibility in everything else?


A majority of the studies that began to emerge in the mid 2000s have discussed this hypothesis (a well constructed excuse to explain the decline in global TC activity since the early-mid 1990s is more applicable to describe this), however, most of the studies are heavily biased by the starting point of the reliable TC intensity records (for most basins this begins in 1970) via natural variability, with what was one of the strongest La Ninas in the observational record (only second to 1916-17 in ERSSTv4) & with 2 major oceanic basins being initialized in the cold (inactive) multidecadal phases. A similar argument is presented in more detail in Chan (2006) & (2008), and Landsea (2005). Thus, it's exceedingly difficult to pin statistical significance on any anthroprogenic influence or confirm this hypothesis when the reliable era is < 50 years long, well within the confines of multidecadal natural variability.
Well organized.

Quoting 14. jpsb:





Al Gore? I heard he's fat.

Youse guys!


HRRR model showing sea breeze rain today confined to SW FL.
20. jpsb
Quoting 7. Xyrus2000:

From the previous blog...
<
There is not one single peer reviewed source that made any claims even remotely close to what you've said.


Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study

"A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year."
Quoting 19. Grothar:


Hello Gro-

I'd rather get an order of rain and hold the wind.

Thanks and hope all is well with you.
Quoting 15. Webberweather53:



... (a well constructed excuse to explain the decline in global TC activity since the early-mid 1990s is more applicable to describe this)...

Wouldn't have figured you for a conspiracy theory type. Odd.


Road markings appear distorted as the asphalt starts to melt due to the high temperature in New Delhi, India, 27 May 2015.

New Delhi, India - Soaring summer temperatures in India have left over 1,100 people dead over the past month, officials said Wednesday.

Most of the deaths have been reported in the southeastern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telengana.
More than 852 people have died from the stifling heat in Andhra Pradesh since May 13, a government statement said. In neighboring Telengana 266 have died from heat-related causes, Bhambal Ram Meena, a top official in the disaster management department, said.
Road surfaces in New Delhi have started melting as temperatures hit a blistering 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) - and weather officials say the sweltering temperatures are likely to continue for at least another week.


Over the last two days temperatures in both states have reduced marginally but continue to hover near 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit).
Public announcements have urged people to drink water and try and avoid going outdoors during the hottest hours of the day.
The Indian Express newspaper said the temperatures in the current heat wave were 5 to 6 degrees Celsius above normal, and forecasting service AccuWeather said it was the most intense heat wave in recent years.
Hot, dry winds have also swept across New Delhi and most parts of north and central India. In the cities, large crowds of office workers gather around stalls selling cold fruit drinks and iced water.
Monsoon rains, expected to arrive in the southern state of Kerala in the first week of June, should bring some respite. The monsoon season runs through September as the rains gradually cover the entire country.
Quoting 20. jpsb:



Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study

"A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year."

That's not really relevant to yoboi's claim.
Quoting 22. Misanthroptimist:


Wouldn't have figured you for a conspiracy theory type. Odd.


Yes, it's somehow a conspiracy theory that these reliable observational records of TCs beginning during an era dominated by the -PDO/-AMO & one of the strongest La Ninas in the historical record would result in a significant source of bias in their findings, and this hypothesis emerged following ACE crash in the 2000s that was largely a result of the cold PDO flip...
Quoting 22. Misanthroptimist:


Wouldn't have figured you for a conspiracy theory type. Odd.


It's sad you've decided to resort to strawman arguments & immediately label me as a conspiracy theorist, especially considering I mentioned reputable studies that presented this same argument.
Quoting 20. jpsb:



Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study

"A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year."

There is some evidence that is occurring now.
Quoting 25. Webberweather53:



Yes, it's somehow a conspiracy theory that these reliable observational records of TCs beginning during an era dominated by the -PDO/-AMO & one of the strongest La Ninas in the historical record would result in a significant source of bias in their findings, and this hypothesis emerged following ACE crash in the 2000s that was largely a result of the cold PDO flip...

No, it is a conspiracy theory to call possible explanations of observations an "excuse". The use of that word carries implications of a conspiracy, no?
For anyone interested in reading the actual paper by Emanuel, it's freely available:

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century


From the Associated Press..

Obama to warn that climate change means more intense hurricanes

Making his first visit as president to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Obama said that, while the nation is more prepared than ever for today's storms, "the best scientists in the world are telling us that extreme weather events, like hurricanes, are likely to become more powerful."
In summer 2013 China has lived a much deadlier heat wave with estimated death toll in the dozens of thousands.
The heat indexes peaked at max of 50-55C for WEEKS , that was one of the major heatwaves worldwide in the history of our planet for a millenium. I wonder why it's even mentioned.
Heat indexes reached 150F in Eastern India in the past days, Chennai is not even close to be the warmest area in terms of heat index (it is in term of yearly average temperature after Nellore).
Quoting 11. tampabaymatt:

Link

For anyone interested in an update on all of the snow in Boston.

What do you think - June...or July for it to finally all melt?


As I've said before, my location in Tampa Bay is in some weird rain bullseye. Here is the rainfall over C FL over the past 30 days. See that minuscule area right above Tampa that has received over 10 inches in May? Yup, that's me. I'm at 10.64" for the month.
Quoting 32. LAbonbon:


What do you think - June...or July for it to finally all melt?


I would say by June. The pictures in that article are disgusting. Just pure filth sitting by the ocean melting away.
Quoting 29. LAbonbon:

For anyone interested in reading the actual paper by Emanuel, it's freely available:

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century




Yeah, I'm reading it now.
Heat in India, rain in Texas! Link
Quoting 31. maxcrc:

In summer 2013 China has lived a much deadlier heat wave with estimated death toll in the dozens of thousands.
The heat indexes peaked at max of 50-55C for WEEKS , that was one of the major heatwaves worldwide in the history of our planet for a millenium. I wonder why it's even mentioned.
Heat indexes reached 150F in Eastern India in the past days, Chennai is not even close to be the warmest area in terms of heat index (it is in term of yearly average temperature after Nellore).

No death toll numbers. But I agree, that one was something off this earth. A quarter million, seriously, if you compare calibre of heat wave and cardinality of population affected and use some numbers from the list of OP like Europe 2003, Russia/Ukraine 2010.


Rainfall for the past 30 days. Wow!
Dampa Bay.

Quoting 33. tampabaymatt:



As I've said before, my location in Tampa Bay is in some weird rain bullseye. Here is the rainfall over C FL over the past 30 days. See that minuscule area right above Tampa that has received over 10 inches in May? Yup, that's me. I'm at 10.64" for the month.
Public education's climate change learning curve
David Ayer

Friday, May 29, 2015 - 1:40am


There’s great hope that the next generation will be motivated to contain climate change and make the difficult decisions that today’s adults can’t agree on. But the reality is that today’s students will have varying levels of understanding about climate change, depending on the state where they grew up and attended school.

State standards on science curriculum vary by state. An attempt to make a national standard through the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) has met objection in some states.

When researching the status of state science standards and the adoption of the NGSS in a project at Earth Day Network, we noticed that which states adopted the full standards — including lessons on climate change — and which haven’t yet seemed to correlate with the major industries in those states. States where coal and oil are important industries, such as Oklahoma, Wyoming and Kentucky, have been less willing to adopt them.

School standards and graduation requirements vary throughout the United States. Each state determines its own standards. While most states establish statewide curriculum standards, but in some states individual school districts make curriculum decisions.

As concern grew about the United States falling behind in the sciences, some education and scientists created some recommended national science curriculum standards to prepare students to compete in the global job marketplace.

Organizations including the National Research Council, part of the National Academies of Science, as well as the National Science Teachers Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science created the Next Generation Science Standards to help raise the scientific literacy of high school graduates. The goal is to prepare more students for further education and careers in the sciences.

Twenty-six states worked with the consortium to create the standards, according to the National Center for Science Education, and the standards were released in April 2013. Since then, 13 states have adopted the standards and are in stages of implementing them. Other states have begun studying what adopting the standards would mean, according to the Center.

However, some states have rejected or blocked implementation of the standards or even reviewing them. Because curriculum standards are left up to states, there is no requirement that the NGSS are implemented nationwide.

The NGSS include material that some have titled “controversial” because under the standards high school graduates will learn the science behind global climate change and the ways in which human activity has increased its rate. Legislators in some states have argued against requiring students to learn these scientific concepts, citing that the science is not fully proven or accepted.

Various states have worked to block or weaken the environmental science curriculum in the NGSS to varying degrees. In Oklahoma and Kentucky, state house subcommittees voted to block the adoption of NGSS or NGSS-based standards. In Kentucky, the governor overruled the subcommittee to approve the standards. Oklahoma’s rejection of the standards still must be voted on by the entire State House of Representatives.

Two Republican representatives in Michigan introduced a bill that would disallow any standards based on NGSS in 2014 but the bill didn’t receive a hearing before the session ended. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal signed a bill allowing teachers to introduce alternatives to controversial theories such as global warming, although a new bill was introduced that would repeal it.

Lastly, in West Virginia some members of the state board of education introduced changes to the standards that raise doubt about whether global warming is man-made, but the changes later were voted down.

Wyoming has gone back and forth on the issue of adopting the NGSS and may be an example of state politics having too great an impact on education. In 2014, the state board of education was reviewing the NGSS. The state legislature then added a budget footnote right before voting on the legislation that prohibited the board of education from allocating funds for adoption or review of the NGSS.

Rep. Matt Teeters, who helped author the budget footnote, told the Casper Star Tribune that including climate change taught as fact would harm Wyoming’s economy and cause unwanted political ramifications.

Educators around the country have argued that taking in any political consideration, when choosing education standards, is inappropriate.

In March, Gov. Matt Mead signed into law a bill that reversed the footnote, according to press reports, which allowed the state board of education to review and consider adopting the standards. The removal of the footnote is mainly attributed to its unpopularity among Wyoming’s teachers and scientists, as well as the state’s newspapers.

A similar attempt was made in Oklahoma to block the standards but the measure died in Oklahoma’s house after being amended in the senate.

Wyoming is a major producer of coal and Oklahoma is a major producer of oil.

The Union of Concerned Scientists wrote on its website, “There is now an overwhelming scientific consensus that global warming is indeed happening and that humans are contributing to it.” Science is based on peer-reviewed work that only becomes accepted once theories have been tested and approved by many other scientists.

The concept that humans caused climate change draws a 97 percent consensus among scientists and the debate is virtually over in the scientific community. This raises the question, why is there so much variation in what science students are taught?

This all means the voters that graduated from high school will have varying levels of understanding of climate change.

With the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan, climate change is being brought to the forefront of state politics. If a state doesn’t teach its students that humans caused climate change, it’s doubtful those students will grow up to be voters concerned about climate change.

The outcome of this hodgepodge of state adoption of the NGSS with climate change curriculums is a continued debate over a topic that has been accepted in the scientific community so widely it is all but considered a fact.

Topics:
Education Climate
That low is still churning in the mid-Atlantic. Can someone just say something about it so I can safely assume that nothing's gunna become of it? It's been there for days now.
One only has to pull up the NHC current discussion to read the Atlantic.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
Quoting 21. rmbjoe1954:



Hello Gro-

I'd rather get an order of rain and hold the wind.

Thanks and hope all is well with you.


Hey, Joe. We need the rain badly here. Things drying up fast, but it is the biggest mango season I think I have ever seen.
Quoting 28. Misanthroptimist:


No, it is a conspiracy theory to call possible explanations of observations an "excuse". The use of that word carries implications of a conspiracy, no?


I'm entirely not sure how you make the leap of faith between excuse & conspiracy theory, but I'll play along... It really is well-constructed excuse to explain an unexpected tendency in observations... Once global TC activity began to decline markedly after 2006


...this hypothesis gained a lot of steam, & literature began (& has continued to pour out on this) & the idea that TC activity would be spared at the expense for more powerful TCs (due to warmer oceans induing higher pressures aloft "capping" moist static potential energy in the lower levels that offers more fuel to incipient disturbances, thus stronger TCs) seemed more plausible. The inherent flaws I've already mentioned in this hypothesis stem from their inadvertent choice for a starting point in their analyses. It's no different from when some claim that we haven't warmed in "x" of years (usually choosing the outlier of 1997-98), when in reality the background state is still favoring warming that is expressed on interdecadal timescales through ENSO, particularly with quasi-permannt spikes in global temperature occurring during/following El Ninos. The only basin with a reliable record of TC activity/intensity that spans appreciably deeper into the 20th century (the Atlantic) shows signs of modulation by a natural multidecadal oscillation.



I suspect the same can be said for global ACE, since the Pacific contributes > two-thirds of the total global TC activity & the PDO's influence on TC activity is also well documented in literature.
Quoting 46. Grothar:


Hey, Joe. We need the rain badly here. Things drying up fast, but it is the biggest mango season I think I have ever seen.


My mango tree produced only 2 mangoes. The buds sprouted in January due to warm conditions but the late January freeze killed them off. It's been raining all morning here in Port St. Lucie. That's good as the grass was browning.
This next WWB means business and notice how far East it is. Very impressive!

Andres has leveled off in intensity since yesterday evening. There appears to be some moderate shear impinging on the cyclone from the north. Although core convection has been deepening recently, the eye clearly seen on microwave imagery is very poorly-defined this morning. I think the chances of rapid intensification, and the chances of this becoming a major hurricane, have gone down. Steady strengthening is more likely over the coming days as shear maintains/slightly lessens and Andres remains over warm waters.

just another stupid question.......does it change the occurrence of AGW...if hurricanes are more frequent...less frequent.....or their intensities........really?......oh yes...it allows some of you to espouse your ideals and google skills...but does it really make a difference......

it's like worrying over which pair of shoes to wear as you race out of the house when it's engulfed in flames.....
Quoting 20. jpsb:



Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study

"A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year."




YAWN thats old news and oh cares about GW and Climate change YAWN YAWN YAWN
Quoting 5. EricGreen:

... in future, millions of agricultural workers could face an early death from working in such conditions.



There is a never ending supply though of workers...

This next WWB means business and notice how far East it is. Very impressive!

not as impressive as the last two...which you can see in your graph.....and as your graph shows they've been ongoing since april 29th....a month......and just using the cdas what have we seen in a month......


basally no change...across the board except in the enso 4 region......which is lower


according to some of the boys you and i both fiollow on twitter....we should have seen rapid intensification.....hmmmmmmm




Quoting 34. tampabaymatt:



The pictures in that article are disgusting. Just pure filth sitting by the ocean melting away.
From the article:




It's a bit like the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but with more trash:

Quoting 48. Webberweather53:



I'm entirely not sure how you make the leap of faith between excuse & conspiracy theory, but I'll play along... It really is well-constructed excuse to explain an unexpected tendency in observations... Once global TC activity began to decline markedly after 2006

...this hypothesis gained a lot of steam, & literature began (& has continued to pour out on this) & the idea that TC activity would be spared at the expense for more powerful TCs (due to warmer oceans induing higher pressures aloft "capping" moist static potential energy in the lower levels that offers more fuel to incipient disturbances, thus stronger TCs) seemed more plausible. The inherent flaws I've already mentioned in this hypothesis stem from their inadvertent choice for a starting point in their analyses. It's no different from when some claim that we haven't warmed in "x" of years (usually choosing the outlier of 1997-98), when in reality the background state is still favoring warming that is expressed on interdecadal timescales through ENSO, particularly with quasi-permannt spikes in global temperature occurring during/following El Ninos. The only basin with a reliable record of TC activity/intensity that spans appreciably deeper into the 20th century (the Atlantic) shows signs of modulation by a natural multidecadal oscillation.


I suspect the same can be said for global ACE, since the Pacific contributes > two-thirds of the total global TC activity & the PDO's influence on TC activity is also well documented in literature.

Well, let's see what the IPCC has to say about tropical cyclones in the short term: "There is low confidence in basin-scale projections of changes in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in all basins to the mid-21st century.

This low confidence reflects the small number of studies exploring near-term TC activity, the differences across published projections of TC activity, and the large role for natural variability and non-GHG forcing of TC activity up to the mid-21st century. There is low confidence in near-term projections for increased TC intensity in the North Atlantic, which is in part due to projected reductions in North Atlantic aerosols loading."

So...
a) there isn't excuse making since reasoning and documentation is provided.
b) there is recognition that the data support only low confidence conclusions.
Quoting 55. ricderr:


This next WWB means business and notice how far East it is. Very impressive!

not as impressive as the last two...which you can see in your graph.....and as your graph shows they've been ongoing since april 29th....a month......and just using the cdas what have we seen in a month......


basally no change...across the board except in the enso 4 region......which is lower


according to some of the boys you and i both fiollow on twitter....we should have seen rapid intensification.....hmmmmmmm




try not too start any thing
Quoting 56. no1der:





From the article:




It's a bit like the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but with more trash:



A great deal of the darkness on the ice and snow in Greenland is volcanic ash.
Quoting 8. Torito:

CMC 200 hours out. Potential system near FL.




CMC/GEM system forms in W Caribbean around 120hrs give or take by the time your 204hr its in NW Bahamas and by the end of run 240hrs its NW of Bermuda



WSI Energy Weather %u200F@WSI_Energy 20h20 hours ago
The atmosphere is responding strongly to the current El Nino event underway. Already stronger than 2014 observations

hit the link too see the map
Link

Quoting 57. Misanthroptimist:


Well, let's see what the IPCC has to say about tropical cyclones in the short term: "There is low confidence in basin-scale projections of changes in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in all basins to the mid-21st century.

This low confidence reflects the small number of studies exploring near-term TC activity, the differences across published projections of TC activity, and the large role for natural variability and non-GHG forcing of TC activity up to the mid-21st century. There is low confidence in near-term projections for increased TC intensity in the North Atlantic, which is in part due to projected reductions in North Atlantic aerosols loading."

So...
a) there isn't excuse making since reasoning and documentation is provided.
b) there is recognition that the data support only low confidence conclusions.


The consensus discussing the link between TCs, AGW changed dramatically from increased frequency & intensity to decreased frequency & increased intensity around the time global TC activity began to fall in the mid-late 2000s & has since continued in the face of this observation. Coincidence? No. Not surprisingly, you still haven't addressed how the word excuse somehow becomes associated with conspiracy theory...

Quoting 59. fireflymom:


A great deal of the darkness on the ice and snow in Greenland is volcanic ash.


It's mostly dust and black carbon from wildfires and industrial pollution, enhanced by microbial growth.

See Jason Box's work:

http://darksnowproject.org
64. jpsb
Quoting 53. Tazmanian:





YAWN thats old news and oh cares about GW and Climate change YAWN YAWN YAWN
But, but, but .... climate change is the topic of the blog today!
Quoting 62. Webberweather53:



The consensus discussing the link between TCs, AGW changed dramatically from increased frequency & intensity to decreased frequency & increased intensity around the time global TC activity began to fall in the mid-late 2000s & has since continued in the face of this observation. Coincidence? No. Not surprisingly, you still haven't addressed how the word excuse somehow becomes associated with conspiracy theory...


Of course, this doesn't go without saying your copied/pasted statement from the IPCC was mainly focused on basin-scale TC activity, & made comparatively little mention (if any) of global implications from the hypothesis of concern...
Quoting 55. ricderr:


This next WWB means business and notice how far East it is. Very impressive!

not as impressive as the last two...which you can see in your graph.....and as your graph shows they've been ongoing since april 29th....a month......and just using the cdas what have we seen in a month......


basally no change...across the board except in the enso 4 region......which is lower


according to some of the boys you and i both fiollow on twitter....we should have seen rapid intensification.....hmmmmmmm


It is very impressive due to the fact its expected to occur so far east. Also there is big warming ongoing across Nino 3.4 where this burst is coming from which will spread toward Nino 1&2.

99% sure we are on our way to a increase to atleast 1.2C on Monday.
Quoting 62. Webberweather53:



The consensus discussing the link between TCs, AGW changed dramatically from increased frequency & intensity to decreased frequency & increased intensity around the time global TC activity began to fall in the mid-late 2000s & has since continued in the face of this observation. Coincidence? No. Not surprisingly, you still haven't addressed how the word excuse somehow becomes associated with conspiracy theory...

Not a coincidence at all. That's what happens as observations and models become better and increase in number. lol

Your use of "excuse" implies something ad hoc to cover a deficiency. IPCC AR5 clearly states that there is low confidence in TC projections. Need I explain what low confidence means? What you have done with your use of "excuse" is imply a confidence in projections that was never there, and imply that changes in those projections were something other than scientific. You are wrong if that is what you think.
Quoting . etxwx- from the previous blog:

We are being invaded by millipedes here in the Pineywoods. (I think that's what they are - they have shorter legs than centipedes) . I guess it's too wet for them outside, they are marching into the house and I was even seeing them in stores today in Jasper. Oh boy.
At least you don't have these:
From Reuters:

Another threat lurking in flood waters is stinging fire ants...

"They will form a mat on the surface of the water..."

"If people see something that looks like a brown rug floating, that's a nest. Stay away.”
Quoting 48. Webberweather53:



I'm entirely not sure how you make the leap of faith between excuse & conspiracy theory, but I'll play along... It really is well-constructed excuse to explain an unexpected tendency in observations... Once global TC activity began to decline markedly after 2006


...this hypothesis gained a lot of steam, & literature began (& has continued to pour out on this) & the idea that TC activity would be spared at the expense for more powerful TCs (due to warmer oceans induing higher pressures aloft "capping" moist static potential energy in the lower levels that offers more fuel to incipient disturbances, thus stronger TCs) seemed more plausible. The inherent flaws I've already mentioned in this hypothesis stem from their inadvertent choice for a starting point in their analyses. It's no different from when some claim that we haven't warmed in "x" of years (usually choosing the outlier of 1997-98), when in reality the background state is still favoring warming that is expressed on interdecadal timescales through ENSO, particularly with quasi-permannt spikes in global temperature occurring during/following El Ninos. The only basin with a reliable record of TC activity/intensity that spans appreciably deeper into the 20th century (the Atlantic) shows signs of modulation by a natural multidecadal oscillation.



I suspect the same can be said for global ACE, since the Pacific contributes > two-thirds of the total global TC activity & the PDO's influence on TC activity is also well documented in literature.
I wonder how severe the next few hyperactive phases over the Atlantic will be. I may be alive to see the next one, but I would be really old...pray me brain still functions...;0
Quoting 65. Webberweather53:



Of course, this doesn't go without saying your copied/pasted statement from the IPCC was mainly focused on basin-scale TC activity, & made comparatively little mention (if any) of global implications from the hypothesis of concern...

The same applies globally. You're flailing.

Be aware it is always possible to have a Hurricane hit Florida anytime during the month of June.
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015


Andres is just below hurricane strength. Although an eye feature
is no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the
associated convection has been deepening during the past few hours.
Microwave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric
with well-defined banding to the south of the center and limited
more fragmented bands to the north of the center. A blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates and ADT values still yield an intensity
estimate of 60 kt.

The SHIPS model indicates that Andres is currently experiencing
about 15 kt of northerly shear, which is likely part of the reason
why the storm has leveled off in intensity for the time being. This
shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but it
should lessen some thereafter. Therefore, slow strengthening is
expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone remains
over warm water. Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to
move over cooler water and into a drier and more stable airmass.
These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system
to weaken. The official intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance.

Andres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 kt. A
weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move
northwestward during the next day or two. After that time, a turn
back to the west-northwest is predicted when the ridge restrengthens
to the north of the storm. The model guidance is in good agreement
overall, and the official forecast is similar to the previous one
and lies close to the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Quoting 64. jpsb:

But, but, but .... climate change is the topic of the blog today!
Howdy J..I was just outside and its hot and humid...If there were no hurricanes, would the atmosphere just explode.? Would all life roast like steamed okra...?...why..??!...WHHYYYYYYY...?!...pfft....
Quoting 60. wunderkidcayman:


CMC/GEM system forms in W Caribbean around 120hrs give or take by the time your 204hr its in NW Bahamas and by the end of run 240hrs its NW of Bermuda

How many hours, give or take, would you say it is from 120 hours before this low forms?

anything before 1960s ACE ????? they are guessing.
Quoting 67. Misanthroptimist:


Not a coincidence at all. That's what happens as observations and models become better and increase in number. lol

Your use of "excuse" implies something ad hoc to cover a deficiency. IPCC AR5 clearly states that there is low confidence in TC projections. Need I explain what low confidence means? What you have done with your use of "excuse" is imply a confidence in projections that was never there, and imply that changes in those projections were something other than scientific. You are wrong if that is what you think.


The deficiency actually refers to their lack of understanding in the connections between TC activity & AGW, the change in observation provided the basis for the next hypothesis which is currently (& likely) being touted above its means. Your assertions that my intentions of using the term "excuse" were somehow unscientific or implied conspiracy theory are completely reactionary & served as a poorly constructed strawman to attempt to distract & derail any real scientific discussion on this topic.
gee IF a hurricane or heavy tropical storm were to hit texas right now omg...maybe even a bigger disaster than ever?
Quoting 74. sar2401:

How many hours, give or take, would you say it is from 120 hours before this low forms?




wind barbs show closed low 138hr
actual low placed on map 150hrs
Quoting 70. Misanthroptimist:


The same applies globally. You're flailing.


To say that the basin-scale changes in activity (& implied physical mechanisms) in only one basin are applicable across the entire globe reveals incompetence in the subject on your part...
Long time lurker, first time poster. What's happening in India is amazing. My wife was there back in August-October 2013 in Chennai for her company. While there, she said the temps would rarely drop into the 80's AT NIGHT! Usually it was between 95-105F and extremely high humidity. People there are lucky of they have running water and electricity, let alone A/C to cool themselves. Makes you wonder how bad things can get.
Quoting 80. Webberweather53:



To say that the basin-scale changes in activity (& implied physical mechanisms) in only one basin are applicable across the entire globe reveals incompetence in the subject on your part...

No, but to say that basin scale changes in all basins is pretty much saying the changes apply to the globe. lol
The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones


Figure 1: Trends in tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds by quantile, from 0.1 to 0.9 in increments of 0.1. The point-wise 90% confidence band is shown in grey. The solid red line is the overall trend and the dashed red lines delineate the 90% point-wise confidence band about this trend.
Quoting 74. sar2401:

How many hours, give or take, would you say it is from 120 hours before this low forms?




Euro and CMC are in agreement of a low in about 8 days time:







GFS similar to the Euro but weaker. Given the model consensus and that it's starting to come forward a bit in time, it's something to watch.
Quoting 81. AlwaysAHokie:

Long time lurker, first time poster. What's happening in India is amazing. My wife was there back in August-October 2013 in Chennai for her company. While there, she said the temps would rarely drop into the 80's AT NIGHT! Usually it was between 95-105F and extremely high humidity. People there are lucky of they have running water and electricity, let alone A/C to cool themselves. Makes you wonder how bad things can get.

Welcome to the blog!

I can't imagine. I have difficulty sleeping if it's hot at night - these folks have no reprieve, and the temps are brutal.
Quoting 82. Misanthroptimist:


No, but to say that basin scale changes in all basins is pretty much saying the changes apply to the globe. lol


FYI, the IPCC excerpt only talked about large-scale changes and a physical mechanism for the Atlantic basin, (the others were very briefly denoted in the "low confidence" reference), which is a good move on their part considering it has the longest active & reliable record of TC activity on the globe.
Quoting 76. Webberweather53:



The deficiency actually refers to their lack of understanding in the connections between TC activity & AGW, the change in observation provided the basis for the next hypothesis which is currently (& likely) being touted above its means. Your assertions that my intentions of using the term "excuse" were somehow unscientific or implied conspiracy theory are completely reactionary & served as a poorly constructed strawman to attempt to distract & derail any real scientific discussion on this topic.

If you know better than they do, perhaps you should publish.

I should also point out that "low confidence" rather says that there is a deficiency. Believe it or not there are experts actually working to correct that deficiency.

Your use of "excuse" is unwarranted and unjustified. Nothing you have subsequently posted has changed that. We've both had our say on this and I'll leave it there.
Quoting 44. LostTomorrows:
That low is still churning in the mid-Atlantic. Can someone just say something about it so I can safely assume that nothing's gunna become of it? It's been there for days now.
Something... :-)

There are several features in the Atlantic now. The NHC mentions them in their discussion -

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.
Quoting 86. Webberweather53:



FYI, the IPCC excerpt only talked about large-scale changes and a physical mechanism for the Atlantic basin, (the others were very briefly denoted in the "low confidence" reference), which is a good move on their part considering it has the longest active & reliable record of TC activity on the globe.

You should probably read the entire chapter. If you can show where the IPCC has claimed to know with confidence what TCs in any basin or globally...well, you can't. So your point isn't a point.

Quoting 87. Misanthroptimist:


If you know better than they do, perhaps you should publish.

I should also point out that "low confidence" rather says that there is a deficiency. Believe it or not there are experts actually working to correct that deficiency.

Your use of "excuse" is unwarranted and unjustified. Nothing you have subsequently posted has changed that. We've both had our say on this and I'll leave it there.


Sure, you have a right to believe that, but to then go onto claim w/o providing any real justification or evidence to back up that I was referring to this as part of some sort of "conspiracy theory" certainly doesn't help out your credibility too much...
Quoting 64. jpsb:

But, but, but .... climate change is the topic of the blog today!



It's about heat wave in India that topic this had too be in there has it seems like every thing has to do with climate change when it comes to tornado heat wave and hurricane not ever thing that goes on with the plant earn dos not mean it has to do with climate change
Quoting 84. Envoirment:


Euro and CMC are in agreement of a low in about 8 days time:







GFS similar to the Euro but weaker. Given the model consensus and that it's starting to come forward a bit in time, it's something to watch.
My question was about when and where this low forms, but the fact there's a low shown at somewhere around 196 hours by all three models makes it a bit more interesting. There is quite a bit of disagreement among the three models between strength and placemant, which isn't uncommon eight or so days out. If the models continue to show this low and come into better agreement on how strong and where, it will get more interesting at five days out. I suspect what will happen is that the models will continue to move the low out in time, but we shall see.
Quoting 7. Xyrus2000:

From the previous blog...

Yoboi

The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..


This is 100% bovine excrement. It was a lie when you first said it and it is still a lie today. And it will remain a lie no matter how many times you repeat it.

There is not one single peer reviewed source that made any claims even remotely close to what you've said. The only thing close are projections for hurricane activity towards the END of the century, and it says the exact opposite (fewer but stronger storms).

There's being willfully ignorant and then there is outright dishonesty. You already have no credibility on the subject of climate change. Are you also looking to sabotage your credibility in everything else?


Separate it to execrement of the male bovine, otherwise point is sound.

Special derision for male bovine manure comes from the observation that it has less fertilizer value and dates from at least the middle ages. (in the age of feedlots it may no longer be true either).

I'm wondering what long term fundamentals of mathematics or physics memory from graduate school was displaced by the useless fact above :-)
Quoting 78. LargoFl:

gee IF a hurricane or heavy tropical storm were to hit texas right now omg...maybe even a bigger disaster than ever?


As saturated as the ground is now, there would not be many trees left standing. Hurricane Alicia took out so many trees when it hit because the ground was already saturated at the time. The winds just blew them over with the root ball sticking out of the ground. Telephone/power poles did not fare much better.
Quoting 89. Misanthroptimist:


You should probably read the entire chapter.


The relevant section (not surprinslgy) 11.3.2.5.3 primarily discusses changes in North Atlantic TCs, little-no mention was made in Chapter 11 to physical mechanisms as they apply to other oceanic basins. Chapter 14 is a better reference for this material Link
Tropical wave #1 has made its way into the E Caribbean should be crossing 65W shortly currently S of 19N
Quoting 94. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



As saturated as the ground is now, there would not be many trees left standing. Hurricane Alicia took out so many trees when it hit because the ground was already saturated at the time. The winds just blew them over with the root ball sticking out of the ground. Telephone/power poles did not fare much better.
gee just imagine the flood damage ten fold over whats happening now...nothing to hold the water back or letting it soak in
Quoting 68. Xulonn:
At least you don't have these:
She will. The fire ants here are terrible. Every time there's a flood, they start floating around and end up piled in the yard somewhere.
Quoting 95. Webberweather53:



The relevant section (not surprinslgy) 11.3.2.5.3 primarily discusses changes in North Atlantic TCs, little-no mention was made in Chapter 11 to physical mechanisms as they apply to other oceanic basins. Chapter 14 is a better reference for this material Link

From IPCC AR5: "Globally, there is low confidence in any long-term increases in tropical cyclone activity (Section 2.6.3) and we assess that there is low confidence in attributing global changes to any particular cause." Sheesh!

This is from IPCC SAR (1995): "The formation of tropical cyclones depends not only on sea surface temperature (SST), but also on a number of atmospheric factors. Although some models now represent tropical storms with some realism for present day climate, the state of the science does not allow assessment of future changes. "
Quoting 84. Envoirment:



Euro and CMC are in agreement of a low in about 8 days time:







GFS similar to the Euro but weaker. Given the model consensus and that it's starting to come forward a bit in time, it's something to watch.
Quoting 92. sar2401:

My question was about when and where this low forms, but the fact there's a low shown at somewhere around 196 hours by all three models makes it a bit more interesting. There is quite a bit of disagreement among the three models between strength and placemant, which isn't uncommon eight or so days out. If the models continue to show this low and come into better agreement on how strong and where, it will get more interesting at five days out. I suspect what will happen is that the models will continue to move the low out in time, but we shall see.


Well that's something
General agreement that it would start in the NW Caribbean give or take whether or not it forms near Yucatan or near Jamaica or Gulf of Honduras or S of Cuba (I'm putting the whole range out there these may not be the actual location)

General agreement that around 196hrs give or take the low would be located within the same general area (NW Bahamas E of Florida area)

Now here is the disagreement how it will track some say cross central cuba into Bahamas and out some say cross Western Cuba into florida then E of Florida and some say through the Yucatan Channel into Florida crossing over E of Florida
Quoting 71. HurriHistory:


Be aware it is always possible to have a Hurricane hit Florida anytime during the month of June.


Look how Alma was on track for a direct hit on the west coast then turned away. #tampashields
Quoting 102. Bucsboltsfan:



Look how Alma was on track for a direct hit on the west coast then turned away. #tampashields
Alma approaching Western Cuba.

Quoting 63. no1der:




It's mostly dust and black carbon from wildfires and industrial pollution, enhanced by microbial growth.

See Jason Box's work:

http://darksnowproject.org

It's also rock flour brought up by the natural internal circulation of the moving ice. My first wife got into "serious trouble" from her world-renowned-glaciologist father when on her first viewing of a glacier snout as a child she referred to it as "just dirty ice".
Quoting 100. Misanthroptimist:


From IPCC AR5: "Globally, there is low confidence in any long-term increases in tropical cyclone activity (Section 2.6.3) and we assess that there is low confidence in attributing global changes to any particular cause." Sheesh!

This is from IPCC SAR (1995): "The formation of tropical cyclones depends not only on sea surface temperature (SST), but also on a number of atmospheric factors. Although some models now represent tropical storms with some realism for present day climate, the state of the science does not allow assessment of future changes. "


Again, other than the assertion to low confidence & discussion of model performance, neither of these excerpts describe the actual physical mechanisms to other oceanic basins aside from the Atlantic that is heavily discussed in Chapters 11 & 14. Chapter 14 is going to be your best source to gather the kind of information I'm referring to from the IPCC's latest report.
Quoting 105. Webberweather53:



Again, other than the assertion to low confidence & discussion of model performance, neither of these excerpts describe the actual physical mechanisms to other oceanic basins aside from the Atlantic that is heavily discussed in Chapters 11 & 14. Chapter 14 is going to be your best source to gather the kind of information I'm referring to from the IPCC's latest report.

Therefore, no one had to make an "excuse." Your assertion was wrong. (This time I really am done. Point proved.)
Quoting 107. Misanthroptimist:


Therefore, no one had to make an "excuse." Your assertion was wrong. (This time I really am done. Point proved.)


Yeah, so those copy/pasted quotes from the IPCC somehow proved that my usage of "excuse" was part of some conspiracy theory to derail their scientific findings... The statements added nothing to address the current theory connecting TC activity- to warming oceans & ultimately AGW, other than provide a well understood broad-brush of the topic.
109. yoboi
When you keep saying the science is settled you will see a shift with funding.....

US Republicans have passed a bill through the House (but not the Senate yet) aiming to get back some control over the 7 billion dollar science budget. Previously the National Science Foundation (or NSF) had all the fun in dishing out the dough, but the Republicans have had enough. Their wish list includes cutting social sciences by 55%, climate science by 8%, and putting extra money into biology, computers, engineering and hard sciences. It can’t come soon enough.

Critics are howling that this will politicize science, but it’s just the opposite. Science was already politicized, and thanks in no small part to the NSF itself. This would put control of the funding back slightly closer to the voters. The NSF is almost unaccountable to the taxpayer, and if the NSF had not wasted money on so many one-sided pointless extravaganza’s (like $5m for “climate games”) and tipped so much money into “behavioural” studies, the elected members would not be knocking at their door. The NSF has only itself to blame.

Link
Quoting 50. StormTrackerScott:

This next WWB means business and notice how far East it is. Very impressive!




Definitely not as impressive as the previous wind bursts.

Quoting 59. fireflymom:

A great deal of the darkness on the ice and snow in Greenland is volcanic ash.
Could you cite your source? Your comment flies in the face of scientific evidence - soot from wildfires and industrial black carbon are major contributors to "dark snow" and "dark ice."

If you want to learn what is really happening with dark snow and ice, check out Dr. Jason Box's "Dark Snow Project," which was created to study the sources of the increase in this "darkness." And it's not volcanoes.

Dr. Box flew to Greenland today, and is heading to a base location to begin this season's research. and will be starting their work for this year's spring and summer.

He and his co-authors have two papers nearing publication - and those papers will likely contribute significantly to the body of knowledge about Greenland and the melting of its climate-critical ice sheet.
Quoting 102. Bucsboltsfan:



Look how Alma was on track for a direct hit on the west coast then turned away. #tampashields
don't cut the funding for the Tampa shields..they work just fine now lol
Quoting 13. hydrus:

Morning Xyrus..It is important to remember that a few here do this intentionally, and get off on the responses. I normally would not have even commented on it, but I can tell by now when something is under your skin so to speak...


What gets under my skin is people posting bald faced lies as fact on what is supposed to be a science blog. Yeah, I and others could ignore them (and sometimes we do) but the comments are still there and not all of them get the mighty moderator boot. If someone doesn't respond to them, IMHO, it lends them credibility and detracts from the overall quality of the blog.

If they want to see who can come up with the biggest lies, the most broken science, most ridiculous conspiracies, etc. there's plenty of other nutter sites on the web where they can do that. They don't need to do it here.

Quoting 17. Misanthroptimist:


Al Gore? I heard he's fat.

Youse guys!


And he lives in a house and drives a car, therefore all climate science is invalid. #denierlogic
Quoting 109. yoboi:

When you keep saying the science is settled you will see a shift with funding.....

US Republicans have passed a bill through the House (but not the Senate yet) aiming to get back some control over the 7 billion dollar science budget. Previously the National Science Foundation (or NSF) had all the fun in dishing out the dough, but the Republicans have had enough. Their wish list includes cutting social sciences by 55%, climate science by 8%, and putting extra money into biology, computers, engineering and hard sciences. It can’t come soon enough.

Critics are howling that this will politicize science, but it’s just the opposite. Science was already politicized, and thanks in no small part to the NSF itself. This would put control of the funding back slightly closer to the voters. The NSF is almost unaccountable to the taxpayer, and if the NSF had not wasted money on so many one-sided pointless extravaganza’s (like $5m for “climate games”) and tipped so much money into “behavioural” studies, the elected members would not be knocking at their door. The NSF has only itself to blame.

Link
As was stated when you posted this bit of denialist claptrap (Joanne Nova? really?) a few days ago: the current House Science Committee seems hellbent on pandering to their fossil fuel overlords:

"Yesterday, by a party-line vote, Republicans in the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology approved a budget authorization for NASA that would see continued spending on Orion and the Space Launch System but slash the agency's budget for Earth sciences. This vote follows the committee's decision to cut the NSF's geoscience budget and comes after a prominent attack on NASA's Earth sciences work during a Senate hearing, all of which suggests a concerted campaign against the researchers who, among other things, are telling us that climate change is a reality.

...

"NASA Administrator Charles Bolden was also not pleased. In a statement released yesterday, he said, "The NASA authorization bill making its way through the House of Representatives guts our Earth science program and threatens to set back generations worth of progress in better understanding our changing climate and our ability to prepare for and respond to earthquakes, droughts, and storm events." He also criticized the cuts to space technology development.

...

"It's difficult to escape the impression that the recent budgets are part of a concerted effort to ensure that the country does nothing about addressing climate change. In the Senate, testimony by NASA Administrator Bolden was used by Ted Cruz (R-Texas) as an opportunity to claim that the Earth sciences aren't "hard science" and that NASA's attention would be better focused elsewhere. Meanwhile, the America COMPETES renewal indicates that the House isn't interested in having the country compete in renewable energy. It chops the DOE's renewable/efficiency budget by over half, and it does the same to the ARPA-E advanced energy program."


Sad. Sad, sad, sad, sad, sad. History has never looked back fondly at those who chose profit over people--and it won't look kindly on the current bunch destroying civilization or a pocketful of shekels.

LINK

Quoting 41. tampabaymatt:



Rainfall for the past 30 days. Wow!


Dallas up through OKC have an average yearly precip around 33-38 inches per year, so the rainfall in one month is 40 to 60% of the yearly average rainfall for the year for a good portion of Texas and Oklahoma, just insane...

By the way, rainfall totals in May in Parts of New Mexico and Colorado are just as crazy. Some of those regions have gotten half to nearly their yearly average rainfall as well. It doesn't look as high, but remember yearly average rainfall in these regions is much lower, lower than 10 to usually not much more than 25 inches. So those states have had areas of unusually heavy rain in the eastern portions as well.

Also notice that much of Kansas, Missouri Arkansas, and Louisiana, have had well above average precip for May as well.
For anyone interested in, and/or concerned, about funding for earth science:

From EOS: Bill that Limits Earth Science Funding Wins OK in House

From EOS: Geoscience Community Reacts to Vote on America COMPETES Bill
Members of the geoscience community have generally reacted unfavorably to the U.S. House of Representatives’ 20 May passage of the America COMPETES Reauthorization Act (H.R. 1806).

The bill, which would limit the authorization of Earth science funding for the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Directorate for Geosciences and for the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Science, has been labeled by Republican supporters as responsible budgeting and pro-science. Democrats and many geoscience organizations have decried the legislation as anti-science.

On the same day that the House okayed the COMPETES Act, the House Committee on Appropriations approved the fiscal year (FY) 2016 Commerce, Justice, Science (CJS), and Related Agencies Appropriations bill, which would also restrict the appropriation of some funding for the geosciences at NSF, among other measures.


Dr. Shepherd blog, May 15, 2015: 15 Ways NASA Earth Science Benefits You That You Don't See

An AGU blog: Should NASA be Studying the Earth?
Quoting 20. jpsb:



Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study

"A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year."


Did you see anything in there about projecting hurricanes for next year? How about the next decade? No?

That's because it doesn't exist, nor does it exist in any literature. That paper (and others like it) are discussing projections for the end of the century. 2100. Not 2010. Not 2015. Not 2020. 2100.

It's also a subject of much debate and research, because at the moment it is still really difficult to accurately predict small scale (both spatially and temporally) features in the global climate system, especially when such features depend a lot more on current local conditions than broad scale regional ones.

Regardless, not a single one mentions hurricane predictions 10 years out or less, as any such paper wouldn't be worth the paper it was printed on.
Quoting 91. Tazmanian:




It's about heat wave in India that topic this had too be in there has it seems like every thing has to do with climate change when it comes to tornado heat wave and hurricane not ever thing that goes on with the plant earn dos not mean it has to do with climate change


How is your rain count coming Taz?
While Congress and partisan interests debate here in the US on whether to fund research and technology, countries like China and India don't question/hesitate to do so and are passing the US by............................ (and a lot of industrial espionage by China also helps reduce their research costs).


"Governing is about setting priorities, and this legislation will put us on a path to double basic energy research one of the best ways to keep good paying jobs from going overseas," said Senator Lamar Alexander (RTN) in a statement. The bill was introduced into the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, which is chaired by Lisa Murkowski (RAK), who co-sponsored the bill.

The bill would be part of the Senate version of the renewal of the American COMPETES Act, bipartisan legislation that was passed in 2007 and reauthorized in 2010 and that aimed to bolster U.S. capabilities in the physical sciences. The 2007 law was drafted in response to Rising Above the Gathering Storm, an influential report from the U.S. National Academies that warned the United States would lose its economic edge if it did not invest more in such research.

Quoting 114. Xyrus2000:



And he lives in a house and drives a car, therefore all climate science is invalid. #denierlogic


He also wears earth tones.
That settles it! A commie plot to raise taxes, have regulation, and destroy the Free Market.

Reducing funding for science and NOAA seems suicidal.
122. etxwx
Quoting 99. sar2401:

She will. The fire ants here are terrible. Every time there's a flood, they start floating around and end up piled in the yard somewhere.

Oh yes, we do have the wretched things. I always have to warn out of state visitors: "See that mound of 'sand' over there? It's an ant hill. Stay away, and watch where you step lest you get swarmed - they have a nasty sting."
It's a running battle to keep them under control in the yard and garden. And I have to watch the newborn calves, too. Now that the ground is so wet, the ants are building large aerated mounds and are close to the surface, or they are hanging out on blades of tall grass where they will get on you as you walk by. Fire ants also like to get into electrical boxes, air conditioners and transformers on the ground. The danger of coming in contact with a floating mat of the beasts in flood waters is not exaggerated.
For those who are not familiar with these imported demons, here's info from Texas A&M:
Texas Imported Fire Ant Research and Management Project
Quoting 29. LAbonbon:

For anyone interested in reading the actual paper by Emanuel, it's freely available:

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century





Yeah, the error bars are pretty significant. Overall there is a statistically significant uptrend towards the end of the century, but just barely (when accounting for the error ranges).

While I find his methods to be plausible, I don't think that the results are conclusive. As I mentioned, small scale features are notoriously difficult to bound and study in climate models. Trying to pick out a hurricane signal out of a 100 year climate model run is like trying to detect the signal from Voyager from background radio noise. Not impossible, but certainly not easy.
Quoting 52. ricderr:

just another stupid question.......does it change the occurrence of AGW...if hurricanes are more frequent...less frequent.....or their intensities........really?......oh yes...it allows some of you to espouse your ideals and google skills...but does it really make a difference......

it's like worrying over which pair of shoes to wear as you race out of the house when it's engulfed in flames.....


It is important, but you are correct. This is just one aspect of a changing climate. The long term changes and impacts are more important (and worse) than wether or not we get a slight increase/decrease in overall tropical activity.

Though this being a tropical blog, I'd imagine people would like to see more activity as long as they're fish storms. :)
Quoting 119. Dakster:



How is your rain count coming Taz?


Ask me in October
Quoting 110. TimSoCal:



Definitely not as impressive as the previous wind bursts.




Again like I told Ric, to have those type of burst that far East is impressive infact Todd Kimberlain @ NHC said this is 2/3 above standard deviation. People keep downplaying this event but its already the strongest on record going back to 1950 for May and if this keeps up as the CFS Wind Anomaly forecast that came out today for June then who knows where this event will end up.

This was from 3 days ago.

Todd Kimberlain@ToddKimberlain May 26
Week 2 GFS showing monster westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific #tropics #climate #elnino #ElNino


Eric Blake@EricBlake12 May 26
@ToddKimberlain It would be historic-- you just don't get 2-3 SD across the entire Central and eastern Pac (but it is day 13 :)]


Todd Kimberlain@ToddKimberlain May 26
@EricBlake12 W 30-35 kt anomalies? Geez. Reversal of the trades. Epac becomes one big cyclonic gyre.
Quoting 102. Bucsboltsfan:



Look how Alma was on track for a direct hit on the west coast then turned away. #tampashields


It may look like a shield in Tampa, but historically, the only thing that avoids the Tampa Bay area based on facts and evidence in modern times is direct hits from hurricanes. But if you look at that number of hurricanes that pass near the Tampa Bay area, the frequency is similar as areas that have had direct hits like the New Orleans area, and the Miami area. That is the Tampa Bay area has felt the impacts of extreme rainfall events, tropical storm force winds, and storm surge mainly times from tropical cyclones, it has even occasionally experienced hurricane force winds and higher storm surge levels from near misses.

Because of this, people think the Tampa Bay area has been more safe than it really has, that's like saying the Mississippi gulf coast wasn't severely impacted by Katrina just because it wasn't a direct hit, or that areas in the Florida Panhandle weren't severely impacted just because Ivan wasn't a direct hit.

The Tampa Bay area has received significant damage from near miss events over the years. Hurricane Easy is just one example, which brought severe damage to the area when it stalled off just offshore of the Tampa Bay area as a major hurricane, bringing torrential rains, up to hurricane force winds, and storm surge, even though it wasn't a direct hit.

Even recent events like Hurricane Jeanne, Hurricane Frances, and tropical storm Debby brought severe tropical cyclone impacts to the Tampa Bay area as well. Furthermore, one needs not to go an further than looking at the Tampa Bay area coastline, which is carved out with numerous barrier islands due to reshaping of the coastline from storm surge events. The area likely experienced strong hurricane landfalls many times prior to modern settling of the area and meteorological records.

My point is not to provoke alarmism or anything like that, rather, it's just a reminder that anyone living in the Tampa Bay area should take hurricane threats seriously and be prepared, and not just assume the next time a threat exists will be another miss.
Attempt #2 at an eye:

Mmmm? 12Z GFS has no low into Florida now, unless I'm not seeing something.
Quoting 101. wunderkidcayman:



Well that's something
General agreement that it would start in the NW Caribbean give or take whether or not it forms near Yucatan or near Jamaica or Gulf of Honduras or S of Cuba (I'm putting the whole range out there these may not be the actual location)

General agreement that around 196hrs give or take the low would be located within the same general area (NW Bahamas E of Florida area)

Now here is the disagreement how it will track some say cross central cuba into Bahamas and out some say cross Western Cuba into florida then E of Florida and some say through the Yucatan Channel into Florida crossing over E of Florida
hey guys just letting you know that the Grand Cayman Radar is back online

also shear is now falling slowly across the S Caribbean
choice a few ant bites or a tick bite ill take the ants. ticks tend to puss up and not go away. .


radar is back online but it is not back up on website just yet
Quoting 123. Xyrus2000:



Yeah, the error bars are pretty significant. Overall there is a statistically significant uptrend towards the end of the century, but just barely (when accounting for the error ranges).

While I find his methods to be plausible, I don't think that the results are conclusive. As I mentioned, small scale features are notoriously difficult to bound and study in climate models. Trying to pick out a hurricane signal out of a 100 year climate model run is like trying to detect the signal from Voyager from background radio noise. Not impossible, but certainly not easy.

That was my reaction as well, Xyrus. When I saw Fig. 1 I thought, "that's not much of an increase." Certainly nothing I'd hang my hat on. That's been the nature of TC research in AGW. That'll probably be the way of it for a while. IMO, the only thing that looks substantive at this point is that TCs will get stronger by the end of the century.
Quoting 129. hurricanewatcher61:

Mmmm? 12Z GFS has no low into Florida now, unless I'm not seeing something.


It sure does but it is very weak. With 2" to 2.5" PWATS coming then needless to say we are heading into a very wet pattern next week which could actually favor the easternside of FL as I am interested in what the 12Z Euro is showing right as it continues to upload.

I think maybe this very strong MJO moving in is causing massive pattern changes on the 12Z runs as the troughs look much deeper across the Midwest/East. Basically say bye to the SE Ridge for awhile as the pattern we had in April returns.
12Z Euro is even wetter than 0Z Run across FL as it is cutting a ULL off over FL now instead of over Louisiana. MJO @ play I suspect and we may need to watch for a tropical system to form somewhere close to FL.
Pattern shifting and favoring a Eastern FL heavy rain pattern. Very interesting 12Z runs coming out.
Quoting 109. yoboi:
When you keep saying the science is settled you will see a shift with funding... *additional garbage deleted*


Great source of info you got there. Linking to a known denier site and conspiracy theorist, with a proven history of a basic inability to do math (her "climate model" genuinely made me laugh).

BTW, climate science is a "hard science". Physics, chemistry, thermodynamics, etc. There aren't many harder.

$7 billion dollars? Hmmm....let's see. The current budget is about $3.9 trillion. So that's about 0.17% of the national budget. Way to attack the big spenders there.

And it shouldn't come as any surprise where they'd try to cut. Just about everything that comes out of social science research disagrees with everything their platform is built on. And it's pretty clear a 5th grader has more of grasp on science than most of them put together.

You don't like what science tells you, make sure they can't do science anymore. Brilliant strategy. What could possibly go wrong?
Quoting 129. hurricanewatcher61:

Mmmm? 12Z GFS has no low into Florida now, unless I'm not seeing something.


your not seeing something lol

12Z run operational GFS has system moving faster and weaker and slow development till later and overpowers shear

12Z ensemble still show it clearly
has system much slower than operational GFS
has it much stronger than operational GFS
has a quicker rate of development than operational GFS
has shear a little weaker than operational GFS but I still say its still a bit too high IMO

Sure hope so, this ridge has been hanging tough and we need some rain here on the east coast. Here in Melbourne it's been bone dry!
Quoting 134. StormTrackerScott:



It sure does but it is very weak. With 2" to 2.5" PWATS coming then needless to say we are heading into a very wet pattern next week which could actually favor the easternside of FL as I am interested in what the 12Z Euro is showing right as it continues to upload.

I think maybe this very strong MJO moving in is causing massive pattern changes on the 12Z runs as the troughs look much deeper across the Midwest/East. Basically say bye to the SE Ridge for awhile as the pattern we had in April returns.
12Z CMC/GEM is interesting

also show system weaker and develops later and movement speed same as last run
also show a second system developing in the NW Carib and moves it N-NW into central GOM
Quoting 139. hurricanewatcher61:

Sure hope so, this ridge has been hanging tough and we need some rain here on the east coast. Here in Melbourne it's been bone dry!


We've been tracking this very strong MJO pulse all week and I think the models may finally be getting a handle on what is likely reality and that is a deep trough across much of the US. Pattern turns dry In Texas as the wetness shifts to FL. Really the whole Penisula is looking very wet. Exciting update on Euro as Upper trough cuts off right overhead. Cold air aloft and moist surface should lead to widespread heavy rains and even some strong to severe weather too.
I see what your saying, had to go back and check again.
Quoting 138. wunderkidcayman:



your not seeing something lol

12Z run operational GFS has system moving faster and weaker and slow development till later and overpowers shear

12Z ensemble still show it clearly
has system much slower than operational GFS
has it much stronger than operational GFS
has a quicker rate of development than operational GFS
has shear a little weaker than operational GFS but I still say its still a bit too high IMO


Quoting 142. hurricanewatcher61:

I see what your saying, had to go back and check again.


It's so weak you hardly notice it cross South FL.
12Z NAVGEM

is stronger in this run
Lets hope it pans out, that would be a welcome relief.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:



We've been tracking this very strong MJO pulse all week and I think the models may finally be getting a handle on what is likely reality and that is a deep trough across much of the US. Pattern turns dry In Texas as the wetness shifts to FL. Really the whole Penisula is looking very wet. Exciting update on Euro as Upper trough cuts off right overhead. Cold air aloft and moist surface should lead to widespread heavy rains and even some strong to severe weather too.
Bring it on!!

12Z Euro
Yes, just noticed that. Interesting.
Quoting 140. wunderkidcayman:

12Z CMC/GEM is interesting

also show system weaker and develops later and movement speed same as last run
also show a second system developing in the NW Carib and moves it N-NW into central GOM
This was from 3 days ago.

Todd Kimberlain@ToddKimberlain May 26
Week 2 GFS showing monster westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific #tropics #climate #elnino #ElNino

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 May 26
@ToddKimberlain It would be historic-- you just don't get 2-3 SD across the entire Central and eastern Pac (but it is day 13 :)]

Todd Kimberlain@ToddKimberlain May 26
@EricBlake12 W 30-35 kt anomalies? Geez. Reversal of the trades. Epac becomes one big cyclonic gyre.



i believe the bold print tells the story....as the forecast timsocal showed updated today as compared with what was tweeted about just three days ago...is remarkably less enhusiastic......looks like long range wind anomaly forecasts...w.ell...they might just be like long range hurricane forecasts
12Z Euro is for the most part unchanged
very slightly bit weaker but pretty much almost unnoticeable to the last run
That's what I was noticing when I first took a look at that run.
Quoting 143. StormTrackerScott:



It's so weak you hardly notice it cross South FL.
Bring it on!!

12Z Euro


it had better...because you've been saying next week...next week...for a month now
So the Low is coming out of the Yucatan?
Quoting 146. StormTrackerScott:

Bring it on!!

12Z Euro

Quoting 133. Misanthroptimist:


That was my reaction as well, Xyrus. When I saw Fig. 1 I thought, "that's not much of an increase." Certainly nothing I'd hang my hat on. That's been the nature of TC research in AGW. That'll probably be the way of it for a while. IMO, the only thing that looks substantive at this point is that TCs will get stronger by the end of the century.
I think the bigger issue will be storm surge, which I suspect is a lot more difficult to model for the distant future. But even a modest tropical storm will push serious surge flooding into places like New Orleans or Miami or Norfolk or New York when sea levels have risen a half a meter to a meter -- or even 30cm.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
140 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WEST CENTRAL SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 138 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIARTOWN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...WEBBERS FALLS...GORE...VIAN
AND BOX.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 282 AND 295.
61 you just dont get it i personally think the weather we've had past month has been golden. your wishcasting this upcoming trough. its going to bring southernly winds and stifling heat. personally i hope it does not rain to july love these cooling onshores. e cen fl


-
tomorrows forecasted high for India
when speaking of el nino.....yesterday i pointed out a couple of graphs that were abundant day to day last month and we don't see anymore as well...they're not nearly as impressive as last month......remember the CFSV2...it's dropping like a rock the last three weeks....the corrected version is well below a 2c anomaly now........the equatorial sst anomalies showing the kelvin wave is fizzling.......and the SOI...oh yes...the SOI of which three weeks ago....jumped into remarkable daily tallies signalling a strong el nino event......well....if we just looked at the daily values.....it's back to la nina values as the daily reading is 17.10 and yesterday was 17.60....now...the daily value is not the SOI and the 30 day value is in a weak/moderate el nino value.....it's just that it went crazy as the tropical cyclones moved through...and now that they're gone...well..it looks like we're going back to the way they were before the cyclones which was a weak response to el nino conditions...and we've never had a strong el nino event when the SOI was neutral or weak
FORCASTED LOW FOR INDIA ONCE WE ARE ON THE SUNNY SIDE OF THE GLOBE TOMORROW AT 5 PM

Quoting 155. islander101010:

61 you just dont get it i personally think the weather we've had past month has been golden. your wishcasting this upcoming trough. its going to bring southernly winds and stifling heat. personally i hope it does not rain to july love these cooling onshores. e cen fl


-


Thanks for rubbing it in :). Your onshore wind has been the bane of my existence in May. I have already had 3 rain events since mid-May where the following totals fell within a short period of time: 2.11", 3.14", and 3.94". We either get no rain or completely drilled. This is unlike last summer where most of the summer the onshore wind originated in the Gulf.
here's something that i pointed out last month that is still evident this month....the sst anomalies around and north of austrailia........same as the SOI....when the waters there have remained average or above average...there has not been a strong event....well...they're still not below average by any means...you can see the first chart which is current and the second which is may 27 1997....does this mean we won't see a strong event?.......hell if i know...but by climatology...it wouldn't be standard



sorry...have to link the scond graph Link
Image from the brush fire just across the main road from my neighborhood here just S.E. of Fort Myers. Latest word is that the fire is now contained, and they are monitoring hot spots. The fire quickly burned 624 acres late yesterday and last night.
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:

Image from the brush fire just across the main road from my neighborhood here just S.E. of Fort Myers. Latest word the fire is that it is now contained and they are monitoring hot spots. The fire quickly burned 624 acres yesterday into last night.

gee hopefully not too much lightning these next few days starting more fires.

The latest tidbit from the Miami NWS...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS DISAGREE IF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CUTOFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
LEAD TO SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE REGION
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO OVER THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE GFS
HAS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER LOUISIANA. EITHER
WAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER
2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.
Quoting 167. GeoffreyWPB:

The latest tidbit from the Miami NWS...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS DISAGREE IF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CUTOFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
LEAD TO SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE REGION
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO OVER THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE GFS
HAS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER LOUISIANA. EITHER
WAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER
2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.


Random question - why do people refer to these updates as "discos"?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
213 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 212 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WEBBERS FALLS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

...

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...GORE...BOX...LAKE TENKILLER
STATE PARK AND COOKSON.
Here we go again it seem as we end every month going into a new month we see the CFSv2 shoot right back up. Last few runs of the CFSv2 on Weatherbell have been looking impressive again.



November



CBSDFW retweeted
Robbie Owens ‏@cbs11Robbie 3h3 hours ago

Stranded motorists can be heard cheering as crane lifts concrete barrier!
Quoting 134. StormTrackerScott:



It sure does but it is very weak. With 2" to 2.5" PWATS coming then needless to say we are heading into a very wet pattern next week which could actually favor the easternside of FL as I am interested in what the 12Z Euro is showing right as it continues to upload.

I think maybe this very strong MJO moving in is causing massive pattern changes on the 12Z runs as the troughs look much deeper across the Midwest/East. Basically say bye to the SE Ridge for awhile as the pattern we had in April returns.


Well there will still be an easterly flow for much of the period, but very deep tropical moisture and cool air aloft from upper troughing will support a good chance of heavy coastal rains on the east coast at just about any time of day and numerous strong thunderstorms in the evening here.

Personally I'm hoping no system develops as if one does there is a chance it could pull dry air down after it departs even though it would bring some heavy rains, whereas simply a tropical wave slowly pushing northwest and advecting deep tropical moisture and convergence beneath upper troughing would support a longer lasting rainy period and bring more widespread rain due to the extended number of days in the airmass.
168-tampabaymatt: "discussion" perhaps? Just a guess;-)
First of all I am not wishcasting, second, the rains would be beneficial for our area since we haven't seen any rain in sometime. Your saying our past month has been golden. Yes it has, but it has also been very hot and dry. Yes the evenings aren't to bad because of the onshore breeze's. I know, . I live close to the Indian river and 15 minutes from the beach.
Quoting 155. islander101010:

61 you just dont get it i personally think the weather we've had past month has been golden. your wishcasting this upcoming trough. its going to bring southernly winds and stifling heat. personally i hope it does not rain to july love these cooling onshores. e cen fl


-
anyone see the baby spin at 72W?

Quoting 168. tampabaymatt:



Random question - why do people refer to these updates as "discos"?
probably short for Discussions Matt
nevermind....remembering the addage...only chew gum once
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:

Image from the brush fire just across the main road from my neighborhood here just S.E. of Fort Myers. Latest word is that the fire is now contained, and they are monitoring hot spots. The fire quickly burned 624 acres late yesterday and last night.



I'm surprised, it seems like rainfall totals in the Ft. Myers area has been pretty decent for May with the unusual amount of sea breeze thunderstorm activity. Maybe it's because it was so dry earlier that there is a lot of dead brush and grasses in the sandy soil areas still? Cause I know that even healthy green plants in high moisture content ground can still burn once a fire gets going.

Also, I wonder if it's easier for lightning to even spark fires in green areas? Cause it seems a lot of Florida fires seem to occur despite that most vegetation still looks moist and green, and unlikely to burn. I know that a lot palm fronds burn pretty easy even when they are green and are receiving a lot of water.

Also, fires in Florida during the dry season are important in clearing out brush so that forest trees can form, and are a part of animal life migration as well. So while it may seem bad, as long there aren't too many, which there haven't been, they are part of life here and are needed.
Hurricane ANDRES
As of 18:00 UTC May 29, 2015:

Location: 12.6°N 114.6°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

Andres became the 1st hurricane of season. This is the fourth month of May followed with at least one hurricane:
2012: Major Hurricane Bud
2013: Hurricane Barbara
2014: Major Hurricane Amanda
2015: Hurricane Andres

Quoting 152. hurricanewatcher61:

So the Low is coming out of the Yucatan?


NW Caribbean
now whether or not it goes through the Yucatan Channel or W Cuba or central Cuba not known yet

Quoting 175. ncstorm:

anyone see the baby spin at 72W?




yes we've known about it for a good few days now
its at 1015mb low that in the process of dying
it was apart of that ULL that worked down to surface
no its not tropical
no its not developing
no it doesn't look good compared to late last night/early this morning

its expected to dissipate later today or tonight
T.C.F.W.
01E/H/A/C1
Quoting 177. ricderr:

nevermind....remembering the addage...only chew gum once
I never understood why people chew gum...I never acquired a taste or desire to chew it ..Weird stuff gum....I have used a ton of tar gum to stick the worm shoe on our old Chris*Craft...Stuff works too...for years...
Thanks for the info.
Quoting 181. wunderkidcayman:



NW Caribbean
now whether or not it goes through the Yucatan Channel or W Cuba or central Cuba not known yet



yes we've known about it for a good few days now
its at 1015mb low that in the process of dying
it was apart of that ULL that worked down to surface
no its not tropical
no its not developing
no it doesn't look good compared to late last night/early this morning

its expected to dissipate later today or tonight

Quoting 178. Jedkins01:



I'm surprised, it seems like rainfall totals in the Ft. Myers area has been pretty decent for May with the unusual amount of sea breeze thunderstorm activity. Maybe it's because it was so dry earlier that there is a lot of dead brush and grasses in the sandy soil areas still? Cause I know that even healthy green plants in high moisture content ground can still burn once a fire gets going.

Also, I wonder if it's easier for lightning to even spark fires in green areas? Cause it seems a lot of Florida fires seem to occur despite that most vegetation still looks moist and green, and unlikely to burn. I know that a lot palm fronds burn pretty easy even when they are green and are receiving a lot of water.

Also, fires in Florida during the dry season are important in clearing out brush so that forest trees can form, and are a part of animal life migration as well. So while it may seem bad, as long there aren't too many, which there haven't been, they are part of life here and are needed.



We need the summer's daily soaking to completely and continuously saturate the "fuel", all the winters dried out vegetation.

The mid may "fluke" of rain didn't help any in that regards, and those storms sparked all kinds of little brush fires here and there, as a matter of fact just a week ago my neighbor across the street had a bit of a brush fire going, very small, fire dept easily contained, but the low hanging smoke in the street and creeping around your yard is enough to have you on edge.

A half inch or inch of rain one day, and then the next its sunny and 90's, that dampness is completely gone. That's been the pattern in my neck of the woods east of I75 in Naples.

Soon enough, we'll have our daily's back.
Infact last 4 runs on the CFSv2 have averaged 3.2C for Nino 3.4. This is the samething that happened last month values went down some for a couple of weeks only to shoot right back up right at the very end of April going into May.

It's been a miserable spring here for me...:/ We can't buy a drop of rain. Crops are hurting in Douglas, Edgar, & Champaign Counties. We are running 4-6" behind where we need to be for the year and thats good for 50-75% of normal rainfall. Me Personally I haven't had a drop in my rain gauge since May 8th.

Quoting 176. LargoFl:

probably short for Discussions Matt
They have all kinds of odd abbreviated words...One that I thought was odd is SOLNS...
Mosaic of MPS-7 23-cm weather radars from Ellington Air Force Base in Houston, England Air Force Base in Alexandria, Louisiana, and Houma, Louisiana on June 27, 1957 at 1 PM CST. Even several hours after landfall, Audrey's eye is still intact over Beauregard Parish, some 60 miles inland.

credit: NOAA/Texas A&M

source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/?n=audrey






Irving Police Dept.
‏@IrvingPD

Updated Traffic Alert: Loop 12 NB & SB will be shutdown from Irving Blvd to I-30 for the next 7 days per TX DOT due to high water


Tampa Bay area
Could really use this rain! Been a very hot a dry Spring overall.


Quoting 178. Jedkins01:



I'm surprised, it seems like rainfall totals in the Ft. Myers area has been pretty decent for May with the unusual amount of sea breeze thunderstorm activity. Maybe it's because it was so dry earlier that there is a lot of dead brush and grasses in the sandy soil areas still? Cause I know that even healthy green plants in high moisture content ground can still burn once a fire gets going.

Also, I wonder if it's easier for lightning to even spark fires in green areas? Cause it seems a lot of Florida fires seem to occur despite that most vegetation still looks moist and green, and unlikely to burn. I know that a lot palm fronds burn pretty easy even when they are green and are receiving a lot of water.

Also, fires in Florida during the dry season are important in clearing out brush so that forest trees can form, and are a part of animal life migration as well. So while it may seem bad, as long there aren't too many, which there haven't been, they are part of life here and are needed.


Just hope that the muck underground does not catch fire. That is when it gets bad. I agree that fires are good and if you are not going to clean out the underbrush yourself, a fire will eventually do it for you.
Quoting 189. Patrap:

Mosaic of MPS-7 23-cm weather radars from Ellington Air Force Base in Houston, England Air Force Base in Alexandria, Louisiana, and Houma, Louisiana on June 27, 1957 at 1 PM CST. Even several hours after landfall, Audrey's eye is still intact over Beauregard Parish, some 60 miles inland.

credit: NOAA/Texas A&M

source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/?n=audrey







Terrible storm...Reminds me of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in many ways.
Quoting 185. FrostyNaples:




We need the summer's daily soaking to completely and continuously saturate the "fuel", all the winters dried out vegetation.

The mid may "fluke" of rain didn't help any in that regards, and those storms sparked all kinds of little brush fires here and there, as a matter of fact just a week ago my neighbor across the street had a bit of a brush fire going, very small, fire dept easily contained, but the low hanging smoke in the street and creeping around your yard is enough to have you on edge.

A half inch or inch of rain one day, and then the next its sunny and 90's, that dampness is completely gone. That's been the pattern in my neck of the woods east of I75 in Naples.

Soon enough, we'll have our daily's back.


Yeah, I guess I assumed you guys had heavier rains, May to date precip here is 6.31 and the pattern didn't start until 2 weeks ago. We had 4 days with 1 inch+ precip thunderstorm events and several other days with 0.25-0.50. I didn't get as much as parts of the Tampa Bay which have had 7-10 inches. Everything is green here and ground moisture is nice and high.
Quoting 198. Jedkins01:



Yeah, I guess I assumed you guys had heavier rains, May to date precip here is 6.31 and the pattern didn't start until 2 weeks ago. We had 4 days with 1 inch precip thunderstorm events and several other days with 0.25-0.50. I didn't get as much as parts of the Tampa Bay which have had 7-10 inches. Everything is green here and ground moisture is nice and high.


Been dry as a bone here lately. 1.27" for the month. I go on vacation June 11th. Knowing my luck, it'll probably remain dry until then and when I get back my stratus rain gauge will have overflowed while I was out of town. :)

I'll need aquak9 to visit my house daily to report measurements to CoCoRaHS for station FL-SJ-16 while I'm away, lol
Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:

Here we go again it seem as we end every month going into a new month we see the CFSv2 shoot right back up. Last few runs of the CFSv2 on Weatherbell have been looking impressive again.



November

Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:

Infact last 4 runs on the CFSv2 have averaged 3.2C for Nino 3.4. This is the samething that happened last month values went down some for a couple of weeks only to shoot right back up right at the very end of April going into May.




oh Scott stop it you may just drive some people to mass massacre with your apocalyptic strong El Nino

CFSv2 doesn't agree with you

peaks just below 2.0


Quoting 133. Misanthroptimist:


That was my reaction as well, Xyrus. When I saw Fig. 1 I thought, "that's not much of an increase." Certainly nothing I'd hang my hat on. That's been the nature of TC research in AGW. That'll probably be the way of it for a while. IMO, the only thing that looks substantive at this point is that TCs will get stronger by the end of the century.


This whole argument is an inability to discern between what research has said about possible future scenarios with respect to tropical cyclones and what research has said about our observations of current trends in tropical cyclones(the strongest cyclones showing an increase in intensity and storms reaching peak intensity further from the equator and no change in frequency).

Quite frankly, anyone who can't distinguish the difference between the two, and thinks that a study that attempts to examine future changes up to a century away should be able to be judged on it's merits 3 years after it's release should in no circumstances be listened to as understanding the situation in any possible fashion. In fact, I would say it's deliberate misinformation spreading.
@ post 194:

        &nb sp;  
Dr M thanks for posting this blog concerning the heat wave in India.  India is already very hot so when we see these temperature extremes it is extra taxing the poor in India.  From an American perspective it is hard to grasp the difficult living conditions that the poor live in on the streets of India.  When you walk the streets of Bombay (Mumbai) you literally have walk around the street people live and sleep on the streets with just tarp cover them from the Sun.  Entire families with little babies live in these harsh conditions and it is overwhelming for a western when they first visit India.  The more fortunate poor live is small shacks like above with no water/electricity.  When the temperatures reach these high extremes,  they have no place to escape the heat and are overcome by the heat.   Every year when the first monsoon rain begins to fall, there is a large cheer can be hear across the streets and courtyards for the locals know it will go from be scorching hot,  to just hot and wet. I hope the summer monsoon arrives soon to give India people a break from this intense heat wave.
Where is Green Tortoloni.?...
Excerpt....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS
FEATURE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW SETTING UP OVER LA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STUBBORN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT THIS RIDGE
WILL BE FORCED NORTH BY MID WEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS NORTH. EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE. IF MODELS TREND THE PATH MORE EASTWARD
RAIN CHANCES COULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
MOISTURE SURGE. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TOWARDS THE STATE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
207. etxwx
From The Dallas Morning News:
Forecasters see social media changing patterns of weather coverage
When big, rumbling thunderstorms fire up across North Texas, so do Twitter and Facebook.
Quoting 193. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area
a lot of those high rain chances depend on how close that supposed LOW gets to florida next week,if it doesn't come close rain chances will go down some.
Quoting 208. hydrus:




Of course the last time those odds were issued was 1992...
Quoting 209. LargoFl:

a lot of those high rain chances depend on how close that supposed LOW gets to florida next week,if it doesn't come close rain chances will go down some.


The low may not form either, it's far from high confidence.
Odd weather!

From one extreme to another: record snowfall to parched May
Boston Globe, By Carolyn Y. Johnson Globe Staff May 29, 2015
Mother Nature seems determined to rewrite the history books on every extreme this year, veering from the snowiest winter on record to one of the driest months of May.
For so long, spring seemed like a faraway dream. The ground was entombed in a layer of snow and ice that just kept growing and seemed like it might not melt until July.
But now the skies have cleared — perhaps a little too much.
With just under a third of an inch of rain for the entire month of May in Boston, yards are parched, streams are low, and towns are implementing watering restrictions. ...
Quoting 210. Dakster:


Of course the last time those odds were issued was 1992...

(screaming hysterically and waving arms frantically)

IT ONLY TAKES ONE!!!!!
UK website warns of high UV radiation rays in the next few days
Ritam Halder, Hindustan Times, New Delhi| Updated: May 30, 2015 00:46 IST
If you thought the extreme heat wave sweeping through the country this year was bad news, think again. According to weatheronline.co.uk, New Delhi will have an ultraviolet index (UV) of 12 on May 30, 31 and on June 1.
A forecast of 12 on the UV index — which is the international standard measurement of the strength of sunburn-producing ultraviolet radiation at a particular place and time — is quite extreme. ...
Dr TK Joshi, director of occupational & environmental health programme at the Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, Maulana Azad Medical College, said the data couldn’t be taken seriously.
“The data seems suspicious but you can’t dismiss it lightly still. Exposure to UV rays causes skin cancer, keratoconjunctivitis (inflammation occurred by irritation) and reduces immunity. ..."
Quoting 213. aquak9:


(screaming hysterically and waving arms frantically)

IT ONLY TAKES ONE!!!!!


Yes, that has always been my point... I'll take a year with 30 Hurricanes in it that go out to sea (and even miss Bermuda) rather than a 1 hurricane season where you get hit.
Quoting 213. aquak9:


(screaming hysterically and waving arms frantically)

IT ONLY TAKES ONE!!!!!

and what a one it can be
u could get the perfect one put most of fla underwater and sts with a barrel outside for a rain gauge
and a governor with a real stupid look on his face and not like the current stupid look but much more defined
Quoting 217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u could get the perfect one put most of fla underwater and sts with a barrel outside for a rain gauge


Keep,

Do you have any natural disasters in your area other than the potential for a long periods of time below zero?
Quoting 211. Jedkins01:



The low may not form either, it's far from high confidence.
yes im not so sure it will even develop anymore.
A heat index of 149 F is most impressive and deadly. I wonder how close it is to certain death within minutes?
Quoting 219. Dakster:



Keep,

Do you have any natural disasters in your area other than the potential for a long periods of time below zero?
yep we get em not often but we get em
Quoting 223. Grothar:



Nice tropical wave entering the Caribbean right now, Gro. But without any spin down there ...
Quoting 101. wunderkidcayman:


Well that's something
General agreement that it would start in the NW Caribbean give or take whether or not it forms near Yucatan or near Jamaica or Gulf of Honduras or S of Cuba (I'm putting the whole range out there these may not be the actual location)

General agreement that around 196hrs give or take the low would be located within the same general area (NW Bahamas E of Florida area)

Now here is the disagreement how it will track some say cross central cuba into Bahamas and out some say cross Western Cuba into florida then E of Florida and some say through the Yucatan Channel into Florida crossing over E of Florida
This would be something. Give us your take on the highest probability from all the models about when this low will form, where it will form, and what track it will take when. No throwing out every possibility or what some think - what do you specifically think?
Quoting 210. Dakster:



Of course the last time those odds were issued was 1992...
Yep..And if this pattern keeps repeating itself, i believe it will increase the odds of another landfalling system.


El-Nino looking pretty strong..
"Forecast below average hurricane season U.S sees strongest storm to make landfall on U.S soil in 10 years" Now that would be irony :).But the way the pattern has been we'll probably have another season where storms are directed away from the U.S.

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Corrected to change NHC model to NHC model guidance

Convective banding features have increased since the previous
advisory, and a tight banding eye feature has occasionally appeared
in visible satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite estimates
are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS
ADT values are T4.3/72 kt. Based on these data, Andres has been
upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Andres has made the anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the
initial motion estimate is now 310/06 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for about the next 36-48 hours as the
hurricane moves around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
located across mainland Mexico and Baja California. The ridge is
forecast to gradually build westward after 72 hours, forcing
Andres to turn back toward the west-northwest. The NHC model
guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing scenario, and
the guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast
track. As a result, the official forecast track is just an update
and extension of the previous advisory track.

Despite moderate northerly vertical wind shear, Andres has
maintained a fairly impressive outflow pattern. However, the 850-200
mb vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to
around 15 kt during the next 24 hours, followed by decreasing shear
at 36 to 48 hours. Now that Andres has established better inner-core
convection and a possible eye feature, at least modest strengthening
should occur during the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, decreasing
sea surface temperatures and cooler and more stable low-level air
lying just to the northwest of the hurricane should begin to affect
Andres. Visible satellite imagery already indicates that cold
air stratocumulus clouds are being advected into the northwestern
portion of the outer circulation, which should mitigate the
otherwise favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, a steady
decrease in the intensity should occur after 72 hours, despite the
low vertical wind shear regime through which the cyclone will be
moving. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and is above the intensity consensus model ICON and close
to the SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
I just noticed the blog count- congrats on 3,000 blog posts Dr. Masters!
Well I got one more comment until my 19,000th comment haha but anyway while this is still on my mind,my rose bushes have grown nicely despite having a bad late winter season.I was afraid that they wouldn't survive at all but now they are the envy of the neighborhood :)They're a bright magenta pink with nice leafy steams,perhaps my neighbor may run over at night and cut 1 or 2 since his died from frost.
Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:

Could really use this rain! Been a very hot a dry Spring overall.



Please make it so, my garden is a dust bowl.


Nice rapidscat of Andres
Quoting 221. wartsttocs:
A heat index of 149 F is most impressive and deadly. I wonder how close it is to certain death within minutes?
It would be pretty terrible but certainly not literally fatal in minutes. That 149 degree heat index was about as much of an outlier as you can get. More typical is a place like Mumbai, where the heat index just before the monsoon hits can reach 125 degrees. By comparison, Phoenix can reach a heat index of about 122-125 just before the monsoon hits there. The actual temperature is between 115 and 119 at least a couple of times a year. Yuma is even worse, with average high of 108 in July and a record high of 124. It's probably the only metropolitan area that reaches a heat index of 135 at least a couple of times before the monsoon hits there. Tops for cities over 50,000 though is Lake Havasu City, with a record of 128 degrees, and the only place with that large a population in the US where minimum temperatures will stay at or above 100 degrees at least several times during the summer. Obviously most people in those cities have A/C but, as an example, some farm workers around Yuma live in tents during the summer. How they do it is beyond me, but human beings seem to be able to adapt to some pretty horrific conditions when the need arises. My dad served as a motor machinist mate in PT boats in the Pacific during WWII, and the actual temperature in the engine room was often at 130 degrees. When I asked him how he stood it, he told me you get used to it. Tough guy.
Texas will get more rain according to the the WRF..


Temperature anomaly forecast (GFS) one week ahead: There are signs that a serious heatwave may build up in Europe - not to mention the anomalies in Siberia and northern Canada. Hope this won't pan out as soils are already bonedry in my region mid Germany! Source.
Good night everyone and pleasant weather!
Quoting 225. sar2401:

This would be something. Give us your take on the highest probability from all the models about when this low will form, where it will form, and what track it will take when. No throwing out every possibility or what some think - what do you specifically think?
I think that if something was LIKELY to form, that Dr M. would at least briefly mention it???? Probably an early season ghost???? I'll get more concerned if the models, most of them are showing something developing within 96 hours. This 200 to three hundred thing Always turns out to be Nothing. On here we talk about it, but Nobody else bothers because it is closer to Pretend than real.
Quoting 236. sar2401:

It would be pretty terrible but certainly not literally fatal in minutes. That 149 degree heat index was about as much of an outlier as you can get. More typical is a place like Mumbai, where the heat index just before the monsoon hits can reach 125 degrees. By comparison, Phoenix can reach a heat index of about 122-125 just before the monsoon hits there. The actual temperature is between 115 and 119 at least a couple of times a year. Yuma is even worse, with average high of 108 in July and a record high of 124. It's probably the only metropolitan area that reaches a heat index of 135 at least a couple of times before the monsoon hits there. Tops for cities over 50,000 though is Lake Havasu City, with a record of 128 degrees, and the only place with that large a population in the US where minimum temperatures will stay at or above 100 degrees at least several times during the summer. Obviously most people in those cities have A/C but, as an example, some farm workers around Yuma live in tents during the summer. How they do it is beyond me, but human beings seem to be able to adapt to some pretty horrific conditions when the need arises. My dad served as a motor machinist mate in PT boats in the Pacific during WWII, and the actual temperature in the engine room was often at 130 degrees. When I asked him how he stood it, he told me you get used to it. Tough guy.
Highest heat index I have ever witnessed was in the Everglades...102 degrees, no wind, and humidity that was probably around 75%..May have been higher because of the water everywhere..Add mosquitoes, flies, and the fact you have to work ( we were surveying ) and it is a living hell....no shade anywhere out there, no A/C in the truck...
Just checked the 18Z GFS on Levis tropical tidbit site, which is still loading. So far it shows the Low crossing western cuba, just west of the keys, up the middle of the state, exiting on the east central florida coast. Which I know will change more.
Quoting 233. AGWcreationists:

Please make it so, my garden is a dust bowl.
The situation down there sounds about the same as here. I've been very lucky so far this May, with over 6 inches in the bucket. My barber, who lives about 10 miles outside town, has had less than half an inch. These convective rains favor those of us who are under multiple storms while people like you get squat. About the only way we get general summer rains here is from some kind of tropical system. A well behaved tropical storm will cause some problems but the benefits from the widespread rains will far outweigh the downsides. No one wants to see 2004/2005 again, but there's no reason to fear most tropical storms. Regardless of how many trees one might knock over, all the vegetation here is conditioned to need it to survive our otherwise long, hot summers.
Quoting 231. hurricanes2018:





Andres is a hurricane? This is only the beginning for the epac.
Quoting 240. hydrus:
Highest heat index I have ever witnessed was in the Everglades...102 degrees, no wind, and humidity that was probably around 75%..May have been higher because of the water everywhere..Add mosquitoes, flies, and the fact you have to work ( we were surveying ) and it is a living hell....no shade anywhere out there, no A/C in the truck...
Yeah, I think back to my childhood, with no A/C unless I could scare up a quarter to go the movies and sneak my brother in. :-) Cleveland wasn't as bad as the Everglades but we'd have days with a heat index of about 105 and actual temps in the high 90's. I remember not liking it, especially when it didn't get below 80 until 0530 and I couldn't sleep. Still, being hot and sweaty was just a part of summer, although I won't turn off the A/C tonight for nostalgia's sake. :-)
Quote 236: "My dad served as a motor machinist mate in PT boats in the Pacific during WWII, and the actual temperature in the engine room was often at 130 degrees. When I asked him how he stood it, he told me you get used to it. Tough guy."

Pretty bad arse! Two summers ago at work we were at 121 F for parts of two weeks and I only know that by bringing in a thermometer for bragging rights sake. Some co-workers stole it so they could complain. I will try to get some numbers this summer (thursday was brutal). I am not a tough guy, but have pride in my ability to suffer.

New England weather is all over the place and my job is a hot one, but I doubt I could ever beat your dad for bragging rights. 130 F is hardcore especially in a small place.
Quoting 245. TimTheWxMan:



Andres is a hurricane? This is only the beginning for the epac.
75 mph storm now but it's not growing as rapidly as I thought it might. It will be a long season out there.
Quoting 114. Xyrus2000:



And he lives in a house and drives a car, therefore all climate science is invalid. #denierlogic


Al is wearing one of these now.

Quoting 248. wartsttocs:
Quote 236: "My dad served as a motor machinist mate in PT boats in the Pacific during WWII, and the actual temperature in the engine room was often at 130 degrees. When I asked him how he stood it, he told me you get used to it. Tough guy."

Pretty bad arse! Two summers ago at work we were at 121 F for parts of two weeks and I only know that by bringing in a thermometer for bragging rights sake. Some co-workers stole it so they could complain. I will try to get some numbers this summer (thursday was brutal). I am not a tough guy, but have pride in my ability to suffer.

New England weather is all over the place and my job is a hot one, but I doubt I could ever beat your dad for bragging rights. 130 F is hardcore especially in a small place.
Even worse, imagine you're my dad, in the tropics, sitting on top of three Packard 1,500 horsepower engines, with no mufflers at attack speed, while operating those levers to control engine speed and the transmission, being surrounded by fuel tanks with 2,500 gallons of aviation gas with a total hull thickness of 2 inches of mahogany plywood - and the Japanese were shooting at you the whole time with incendiary rounds!

There is nothing I have ever done in my life, or could ever have done in my life, to equal those three years my dad spent sitting on those engines.


252. JRRP


GFS still showing strong tropical wave in CATL
2015-05-27 20:00 Local EST
SST Anomaly
Quoting 247. sar2401:

Yeah, I think back to my childhood, with no A/C unless I could scare up a quarter to go the movies and sneak my brother in. :-) Cleveland wasn't as bad as the Everglades but we'd have days with a heat index of over about 105 and actualtemps in the high 90's. I remember not liking it, especially when it didn't get below 80 until 053o and I couldn't sleep. Still, being hot and sweaty was just a part of summer, although I won't turn off the A/C tonight for nostalgia's sake. :-)
I was an 2nd engineer on board an ocean going tug. We spent hours at a time in the engine room, cleaning, maintaining, painting, you name it. Head phones on constantly because the roar of the engines and generators would cause deafness. The heat is oppressive, especially when you have to wear overalls almost all the time during the cold months. The North Atlantic and the Great Lakes stay cold for more than half the year. One does not have time or the opportunity to take them off, because you would be dressing and undressing constantly. It could get up around 115 degrees down there, and maybe a bit hotter during the summer months...I loved it even tho it was not an easy job. working on those huge v-16,s was great. Captain was always happy to have us in the pilot house..Learned a lot about navigation and seamanship, everything from splicing huge lines, cable repair, welding, and repairs.
Quoting 239. sebastianflorida:
I think that if something was LIKELY to form, that Dr M. would at least briefly mention it???? Probably an early season ghost???? I'll get more concerned if the models, most of them are showing something developing within 96 hours. This 200 to three hundred thing Always turns out to be Nothing. On here we talk about it, but Nobody else bothers because it is closer to Pretend than real.
Indeed, anything that's five or less days out will be followed and commented on by Dr. Masters and the NHC. Anything further out rarely gets a comment because the supposed storm is likely to be a false positive. I've never read anything on how many tropical lows a model like the GFS produces compared to lows that appear at the surface but it seems like a lot, certainly over 75%. I personally prefer not spend energy on that many ghosts but I understand why people do. Everyone wants to be able to predict the future, and a tropical model is probably going to be a winner more often than buying a lottery ticket. :-)

Remember, they called her "Billion Dollar Betsy" and she caused misery and destruction in both South Florida and Louisiana during a year (1965) that only produced six (6) storms. It only takes one!
Quoting 254. hydrus:
I was an 2nd engineer on board an ocean going tug. We spent hours at a time in the engine room, cleaning, maintaining, painting, you name it. Head phones on constantly because the roar of the engines and generators would cause deafness. The heat is oppressive, especially when you have to wear overalls almost all the time during the cold months. The North Atlantic and the Great Lakes stay cold for more than half the year. One does not have time or the opportunity to take them off, because you would be dressing and undressing constantly. It could get up around 115 degrees down there, and maybe a bit hotter during the summer months...I loved it even tho it was not an easy job. working on those huge v-16,s was great. Captain was always happy to have us in the pilot house..Learned a lot about navigation and seamanship, everything from splicing huge lines, cable repair, welding, and repairs.
My dad really loved engines too, and he liked tearing down and rebuilding those big Packards. He was very proud of the hot rods he built when he was a teenager. I was more of a deckhand type. The few times I was made to go down and join the snipes I couldn't wait to get out. I wonder if kids still build hot rods like that, where you take some old junker and stuff in the biggest engine your could shoehorn in? It probably violates about 20 laws now, not to mention the price of gas.
Quoting 227. wartsttocs:


El-Nino looking pretty strong..


Lets just say its not safe to bet against the STS. Anyways my bet for 1.2C or greater on Monday's update looks good so far as 1.5C anomalies are all over 3.4 as of today.

18Z GFS a bit different than last few runs now brings back development of the low earlier and moves the system slower and more consistent with the ensembles

Quoting 224. barbamz:


Nice tropical wave entering the Caribbean right now, Gro. But without any spin down there ...



Tropical wave has already entered the Caribbean from morning it's making its way to the central Caribbean

Soon it shall gain spin

Quoting 225. sar2401:

This would be something. Give us your take on the highest probability from all the models about when this low will form, where it will form, and what track it will take when. No throwing out every possibility or what some think - what do you specifically think?


Ok I've made a graphic yesterday evening give me an hr or two I'll post it

Quoting 256. HurriHistory:

Remember, they called her "Billion Dollar Betsy" and she caused misery and destruction in both South Florida and Louisiana during a year (1965) that only produced six (6) storms. It only takes one!
It really only takes one in any season. The number of total storms in any season is irrelevant. This has now been repeated with sufficient examples that I think we get the point.

Yes indeed it is very possible that the state of Florida gets hit with a Hurricane during the month of June. This storm hit on the 23rd of June 1945 with 100 KT. Winds. So watch yourselves! And keep checking those model runs everyday.
Quoting 259. wunderkidcayman:
Ok I've made a graphic yesterday evening give me an hr or two I'll post it

I shall wait with great interest.
Quoting 252. JRRP:



GFS still showing strong tropical wave in CATL

Cool if this does play out this could be future "Claudette" did I get the name right

Quoting 262. sar2401:

I shall wait with great interest.
Sitting on the edge of my seat
Quoting 262. sar2401:

I shall wait with great interest.


Yep also because it's a day old some change will likely be needed
But I shall be sure to post the new one too
266. JRRP
Quoting 263. wunderkidcayman:


Cool if this does play out this could be future "Claudette" did I get the name right



here is the 00z EURO
Quoting 222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep we get em not often but we get em


It think we all need to move next to you. No Tsunami threat, hurricanes are minimal, cold you can bundle up, no earthquakes...


Hydrus - I hope we are both wrong about getting one on the east coast...
Quoting 260. sar2401:

It really only takes one in any season. The number of total storms in any season is irrelevant. This has now been repeated with sufficient examples that I think we get the point.

Just like all the other sufficient, mundane, insipid, boring examples of SSTs, El-nino, and Total Precipitable Water Anomalies we see posted on this site day in and day out that I think we get the point already as well. At least I posted a couple of nice historical track maps that some of the readers who like historical graphics can enjoy.
Quoting 238. barbamz:


Temperature anomaly forecast (GFS) one week ahead: There are signs that a serious heatwave may build up in Europe - not to mention the anomalies in Siberia and northern Canada. Hope this won't pan out as soils are already bonedry in my region mid Germany! Source.
Good night everyone and pleasant weather!


This pattern doesn't seem to want to go anywhere, and is already hitting the arctic pretty hard. Unless something changes soon well probably see a new record arctic minimum this year.
here ya go Friday night movie




Melted Asphalt in India's Capitol City, New Delhi

UPDATE: It might be just the stripes that are melting, and not the asphalt.

Looks like Andres is gradually intensifying this evening. It's eye is starting to become apparent.
Quoting 272. Ameister12:

Looks like Andres is gradually intensifying this evening. It's eye is starting to become apparent.


Not sure how long it's going to last given all the stratocumulus to its northwest (dry air) and the shear impinging from that direction.

Storms have intensified in worse though, so I guess we'll see.
Quoting 266. JRRP:


here is the 00z EURO

Be funny if this hurricane season just trolled everyone.
Quoting 273. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not sure how long it's going to last given all the stratocumulus to its northwest (dry air) and the shear impinging from that direction.

Storms have intensified in worse though, so I guess we'll see.


probably the anticyclone will give a suport for the next 48 hours i guess...







small eye for now
Quoting 274. washingtonian115:

Be funny if this hurricane season just trolled everyone.


19,000 comment spent well.

Quoting 273. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not sure how long it's going to last given all the stratocumulus to its northwest (dry air) and the shear impinging from that direction.

Storms have intensified in worse though, so I guess we'll see.


Quoting 274. washingtonian115:

Be funny if this hurricane season just trolled everyone.


that would be the best day of my life
my laughter would be so bad that it would be worse that overdosing on laughing gas


Hurricane Preparation 2015

t's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.





Ok sorry I have to delay the forecast graphic that I said I would post for another hr or so maybe 3 hrs max
Shear in the SW and S Central Caribbean starting to fall I would expect this to continue to fall and shear to also start to fall in the W Caribbean as the upper level Trof in the E GOM extended into the NW Caribbean to dissipate and a upper ridge to develop and spread into the SW Caribbean

282. flsky
Not even close to the original. Shame they even made it.

Quoting 270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here ya go Friday night movie





Quoting 271. DCSwithunderscores:

Melted Asphalt in India's Capitol City, New Delhi




For me, that is one of the most remarkable extreme weather photos I've seen. Did not know the heat could do that.
Hurricane Forecast Computer Models


By Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology

The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as mathematical equations. These equations represent how atmospheric quantities such as temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, etc., will change from their initial current values (at the present time). If we can solve these equations, we will have a forecast. We can do this by sub-dividing the atmosphere into a 3-D grid of points and solving these equations at each point. These models have three main sources of error:

1) Initialization: We have an imperfect description of what the atmosphere is doing right now, due to lack of data (particularly over the oceans). When the model starts, is has an incorrect picture of the initial state of the atmosphere, so will always generate a forecast that is imperfect.

2) Resolution: Models are run on 3-D grids that cover the entire globe. Each grid point represents of piece of atmosphere perhaps 40 km on a side. Thus, processes smaller than that (such as thunderstorms) are not handled well, and must be "parameterized". This means we make up parameters (fudge factors) that do a good job giving the right forecast most of the time. Obviously, the fudge factors aren't going to work for all situations.

3) Basic understanding: Our basic understanding of the physics governing the atmosphere is imperfect, so the equations we're using aren't quite right.

Types of hurricane forecasting models

The best hurricane forecasting models we have are "global" models that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. Models that solve these equations are called "dynamical" models. The four best hurricane forecast models—ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET—are all global dynamical models. These models take several hours to run on the world's most advanced supercomputers.

There are also dynamical models that cover just a portion of the globe. These are less useful, unless the hurricane happens to start out inside the domain the model covers and stay there. Hurricanes moving from outside the model domain into the model domain are not well handled. An example of this kind of model is the NAM model covering North America and the surrounding waters, run by the National Weather Service (NWS).

Another type of hurricane model is a statistical model. These models do not try to solve mathematical equations on a grid. The advantage of these statistical models is that they are fast to run and can provide output in a few minutes. There are also hybrid statistical/dynamical models, and simple trajectory models.

A full list of all of the tropical cyclone track and intensity models can be found on the National Hurricane Center's website.

A summary of the top six models:

ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that starting producing very accurate hurricanes forecasts.

GFS: The Global Forecast System model run by the NWS. Excellent graphics are available on the web from the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Wunderground.com also has GFS plots. I like the Tropical Atlantic imagery. If you select "Shear" from the "level" menu, then click on "Add a Map", you'll get plots of the wind shear that I talk so much about.

GFDL: The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Wunderground.com makes these graphics available on Wundermap. More detailed GFDL graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "GHM" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.

HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Detailed HWRF graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "HWRF" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

NOGAPS: The U.S. Navy's Navy Operational Global Prediction Center System. Graphics are available at the Navy web site. This model has been performing poorly in recent years compared to the other global models, so it has been removed from the consensus models that the National hurricane Center uses as of 2011.

One other model worth looking at, but not as good as the other six is the Canadian GEM model.

Non-global models

The BAMM model (Beta and advection model, medium layer) is included on Wundermap. The BAMM is a simple trajectory model that is very fast to run, and did the best of any individual model at 3-5 day track forecasts in 2005. Since this model is always available, we have included it along with the "big four". In general, one should not trust the BAMM model for the 1-2 day time period when output from "the big four" are available. "The big four" are generally not available for tropical disturbances, and for these situations we post plots of a number of other non-global models such as the LBAR, A98E, etc. All of these models are described in detail on NHC's web site.

Model performance

So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF.
Quoting 219. Dakster:



Keep,

Do you have any natural disasters in your area other than the potential for a long periods of time below zero?
One interesting thing abt tropical cyclones in this basin is that a few of them have taken the damage factor into Canada's interior. IIRC, even the Toronto area has gotten its share. Example: 1972 Agnes, which became a powerful extratropical storm over Ontario.
"Agnes began its long life as an extratropical cyclone once cold air invaded its circulation late on June 22. The system looped across south-central Pennsylvania on June 23 and then looped across southern Ontario on June 25. It spawned a tornado in Maniwaki, Ontario early that day, which killed two and injured 11 people." [Wikipedia]

I wonder how far northwest an ATL TC has been tracked.....
Quoting 251. sar2401:

Even worse, imagine you're my dad, in the tropics, sitting on top of three Packard 1,500 horsepower engines, with no mufflers at attack speed, while operating those levers to control engine speed and the transmission, being surrounded by fuel tanks with 2,500 gallons of aviation gas with a total hull thickness of 2 inches of mahogany plywood - and the Japanese were shooting at you the whole time with incendiary rounds!

There is nothing I have ever done in my life, or could ever have done in my life, to equal those three years my dad spent sitting on those engines.





They have one of those on display at the Pacific war museum in Fredricksburg Texas. It's pretty cool how they built it. They didn't let us go inside, but having been in the destroyer and sub in Galveston and on the battleship Texas. I can say, it didn't look comfy.
Higgins built the PT-Boats in New Orleans as well as the Invasion Landing crafts my Father used in the WW-2 Battle of Okinawa Landing, and thousands of other used in the Pacific and EUrope.

Here at the WW-2 Museum they restoring one.



PT-305 The National WWII Museum is in the midst of a multi-year project to restore a historic PT boat built by Higgins Industries in New Orleans, Louisiana. PT-305 served in the Mediterranean Theater of Operations and was known by several nicknames including The Sudden Jerk, The Bar Fly and The Half Hitch.




288. etxwx
From the Beaumont Enterprise:
Neches crests near Town Bluff
The Neches River near Town Bluff (in SE Texas) crested Friday morning but will persist at its third-highest elevation in more than 60 years for at least several days, officials said.

Official: Prepare for Rayburn dam releases this weekend
The Lake Sam Rayburn's water level on Friday afternoon was at 172.7 feet, or 0.3 feet from the top of its pool. Rayburn can handle an elevation above 173 feet, but after the level hits 176 feet, it would flow uncontrolled over the spillway, said Bart Dearborn, lake manager for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. "What we're advising is people need to be prepared for a release when we hit 173 (feet)," Dearborn said. That could come as soon as Saturday, Dearborn said.
While Oklahoma and Texas struggle with feet of rain, it's been a pretty dry month here. I've picked up ~7 inches, most of which from Ana, but we haven't seen much, if any, since then. Despite the flooding issues, I imagine farmers are pretty happy with recent weather given the state of the drought there in 2011. What a difference 4 years makes.

Most recent GFS run doesn't like Cabo very much.


Andres is gradually intensifying and it may become a Category 2 hurricane. Let's see if it can become more greatly intensified.

Read more..
yesterday's chart
possible solution System in NW Carib/GOM/FL/SEUS

today's chart
possible solution System in NW Carib/GOM/FL/SEUS

now these are more of personal thought of what could potentially happen with this system
Quoting 291. meteorologistkidFL:
Andres is gradually intensifying and it may become a Category 2 hurricane. Let's see if it can become more greatly intensified.

Read more..
"more greatly intensified"? I've read your blog a couple of times, Michaelangelo. If you're not a native English speaker, I apologize. If you are, you really need to work on your grammar.
Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:

today's chart
possible solution System in NW Carib/GOM/FL/SEUS




Fingers crossed!
Quoting 296. sar2401:

"more greatly intensified"? I've read your blog a couple of times, Michaelangelo. If you're not a native English speaker, I apologize. If you are, you really need to work on your grammar.


then again if meteorologistkidFL is actually a kid then I'd give him a bit of a pass
ok then

Michaelangelo H.

Chief Tropical Weather Blogger & Creator/Founder of Mac's Tropical Weather Blog
Interested in Tropical Meteorology since 2005
9th Grade High School Student
Community Activist

Michaelangelo good job for a 9th grader
keep up good work and stay in school for as long as you can your life will thank you for it
what happen Sar no comment
I was expecting you to comment
Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:

today's chart
possible solution System in NW Carib/GOM/FL/SEUS






Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:
today's chart
possible solution System in NW Carib/GOM/FL/SEUS

Interesting chart. Just so I have this straight, you're saying the low will form off the east coast of Panama, right? When will this happen? Or, are you saying the tropical wave now in the eastern Carribean will tavel all the way across the western Caribbean and turn into a low sometime this weekend off Honduras? If so, when would this happen? You say that will be the possible development of the storm. Does this mean a tropical depression or just the low? What does the black line with the arrow pointing at it mean? When do you think something classified as a TD will form?

After the storm forms, your timeline becomes a little hazy. Can you put some dates and times in that cone to give us an idea of when the storm will be at locations say, 24 hours apart? The cone itself isn't quite what I expected. Can you at least draw a track that's the WKC model for the best of all those lines? Thanks.

Well this is quite interesting.
Quoting 300. wunderkidcayman:
what happen Sar no comment
I was expecting you to comment
No, no comment from me. :-)
Quoting 298. wunderkidcayman:


then again if meteorologistkidFL is actually a kid then I'd give him a bit of a pass
The best time to learn correct grammar is when you're in high school. We've had, and still have now, quite a number of young people in high school on this blog. In many cases, their spelling, punctuation, and grammar was a lot better than some of the adults we have here.
Andres is getting nearer and nearer Category 2 intensity.

Quoting 305. sar2401:

The best time to learn correct grammar is when you're in high school. We've had, and still have now, quite a number of young people in high school on this blog. In many cases, their spelling, punctuation, and grammar was (were) a lot better than some of the adults we have here.

Speaking of which... ;)

Just messin' with ya.
308. 1344


929 mbar for 0/50!!!
Quoting 271. DCSwithunderscores:
Melted Asphalt in India's Capitol City, New Delhi

Here's a bigger view. It's not exactly the asphalt that's melting. Those white lines are in a big crosswalk. There were laid down over the road surface. It has a rubber backing wiht vinyl stripes. It's a apparently that rubber backing laid over some speed humps that's melting. It's still pretty hot though, no matter what's melting.

00Z GFS still develop system
00Z GFS develops system sooner than last run
00Z GFS show system stronger than last run
00Z GFS show system moves slightly slower than last run
00Z GFS show shear a little weaker IMO GFS is still overpowering Shear
00Z GFS shows only one system no splitting (So far)- system moves into NW Caribbean moves NE-NNE passing W of Cayman crosses W Cuba into Key West and S FL up FL E coast landfalls in Georgia and continues up the US E Coast

00Z CMC/GEM still develops system
00Z CMC/GEM develops system sooner than last run
00Z CMC/GEM show system stronger than last run
00Z CMC/GEM does not split system into two energy pieces (So far that is )
00Z CMC/GEM (So far ) only shows one system- System moves into NW Caribbean moves NE passing close to Cayman crosses Cuba into NW Bahamas (So far) it stays off Cuba
Quoting 307. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Speaking of which... ;)

Just messin' with ya.
You done caught me. :-) Seriously though, what grade were you in when you first started posting? It seems to me that it was first or second year of high school, maybe even younger. As I've said before, I was shocked when I learned your age because you wrote so well. No matter how smart you are about anything else, good writing skills will give you that extra dimension when you're in competition with other people who might be just as smart but don't have those skills. It's also important when you are writing anything for public consumption. Frankly, with the grammar and spell checkers we have on computers now, there's really not much excuse for sloppy writing.
Quoting 310. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS still develop system
00Z GFS develops system sooner than last run
00Z GFS show system stronger than last run
00Z GFS show system moves slightly slower than last run
00Z GFS show shear a little weaker IMO GFS is still overpowering Shear
00Z GFS shows only one system no splitting (So far)- system moves into NW Caribbean moves NE-NNE passing W of Cayman crosses W Cuba into Key West and S FL up FL E coast landfalls in Georgia and continues up the US E Coast

00Z CMC/GEM still develops system
00Z CMC/GEM develops system sooner than last run
00Z CMC/GEM show system stronger than last run
00Z CMC/GEM does not split system into two energy pieces (So far that is )
00Z CMC/GEM (So far ) only shows one system- System moves into NW Caribbean moves NE passing close to Cayman crosses Cuba into NW Bahamas (So far) it stays off Cuba


What Type of storm could this be if it plays out? Tropical Storm,Depression?
Quoting 312. nygiants:



What Type of storm could this be if it plays out? Tropical Storm,Depression?
Tropical Storm.
Quoting 309. sar2401:

Here's a bigger view. It's not exactly the asphalt that's melting. Those white lines are in a big crosswalk. There were laid down over the road surface. It has a rubber backing wiht vinyl stripes. It's a apparently that rubber backing laid over some speed humps that's melting. It's still pretty hot though, no matter what's melting.




It's a apparently that rubber backing....... Sar, this is just unacceptable grammar. Your really old, not Gro old, but I'm sure you could off hand quote Patton right now if I asked you to; so we can forgive this senility slip. :) Use to think you were the Google master, but after years here, I know your have a rich wealth of knowledge and pithiness. Hope your doing well.
Quoting 310. wunderkidcayman:
00Z GFS still develop system
00Z GFS develops system sooner than last run
00Z GFS show system stronger than last run
00Z GFS show system moves slightly slower than last run
00Z GFS show shear a little weaker IMO GFS is still overpowering Shear
00Z GFS shows only one system no splitting (So far)- system moves into NW Caribbean moves NE-NNE passing W of Cayman crosses W Cuba into Key West and S FL up FL E coast landfalls in Georgia and continues up the US E Coast

00Z CMC/GEM still develops system
00Z CMC/GEM develops system sooner than last run
00Z CMC/GEM show system stronger than last run
00Z CMC/GEM does not split system into two energy pieces (So far that is )
00Z CMC/GEM (So far ) only shows one system- System moves into NW Caribbean moves NE passing close to Cayman crosses Cuba into NW Bahamas (So far) it stays off Cuba
So what's the WKC model track for this system? We can all look at the models and see what they are doing. What do you think will happen with this system? Which model do you think probably has it right, at least for now? What timeline do you prefer.

The 00z GFS is much different than previous runs. It could hardly be more different. It has this storm in Key West by 06z on Thursday, going up to central Florida and then getting off the east coast by 00z Friday. It then travel inland upthe coast until it gets to about Washington DC at 00z Tuesday, June 9. It seems lose its identity as a low then, but it is still a trough spreading quite a bit of moisture all the way to Nova Scotia at 00a, Friday, June 12, almost exactly two weeks from now. According to the GFS, this storm is supposed to make landfall in the Keys 5.25 days from now, within that magic forecasting window. Do you buy the GFS solution or not? Time to stick your neck out, WKC.
Quoting 302. sar2401:

Interesting chart. Just so I have this straight, you're saying the low will form off the east coast of Panama, right? When will this happen? Or, are you saying the tropical wave now in the eastern Carribean will tavel all the way across the western Caribbean and turn into a low sometime this weekend off Honduras? If so, when would this happen? You say that will be the possible development of the storm. Does this mean a tropical depression or just the low? What does the black line with the arrow pointing at it mean? When do you think something classified as a TD will form?

After the storm forms, your timeline becomes a little hazy. Can you put some dates and times in that cone to give us an idea of when the storm will be at locations say, 24 hours apart? The cone itself isn't quite what I expected. Can you at least draw a track that's the WKC model for the best of all those lines? Thanks.


as I stated this is just thoughts on what could possibly happen

to answer the first bit
I think its a mix of multiple things one being the tropical wave second being monsoon trof/Panamanian low third being MJO maybe a few other things

to answer part 2 to the first bit around early Mon- early Wed give or take a day

development of low maybe development of TD

in terms of actual date/times of actual formation/development/forecast was left hazy for a reason there are a bit of questions that need answering first before we can get the day/time right those questions would take up the weekend to answer

those track lines that are in the cone is most of the models and ensembles over past few days also now need updating to add more E component that CMC/GEM has brought on recently

anyway more accurate and time accurate charts will be posted once these questions start being answered
WKC did not take the chum thrown off the back of the boat Sar. Good back and forth. Well answered WKC. Early season could be off to a surprisingly quick start. El-Nino early season has few analogies. Another strange year of the unknowns ahead. Early season El-Nino, AB High out of place, and a drunk jet stream could lead to a very fun blog year and a much more sobering season of suffering for so many.
Quoting 314. DeepSeaRising:


It's a apparently that rubber backing....... Sar, this is just unacceptable grammar. Your really old, not Gro old, but I'm sure you could off hand quote Patton right now if I asked you to; so we can forgive this senility slip. :) Use to think you were the Google master, but after years here, I know your have a rich wealth of knowledge and pithiness. Hope your doing well.
Those "your" should be "you're", BTW, not that I'd notice. :-) In my defense, I'm using IE9 with no spell check or grammar check, so I'm going to screw up even more than usual. But really, the point is that we both know people here who make a real effort to write understandable posts while maintiang a good writing style. We know others who seem to have a cat walking across the keyboard. I don't begrudge people who keep their cats under control for the occasional slip up.

I'm doing well for a geezer, thanks, how about you? We'll see if we get an actual storm to track next week. I do often think of you when I remember George saying "If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking.". :-0
Quoting 317. DeepSeaRising:

WKC did not take the chum thrown off the back of the boat Sar. Good back and forth. Well answered WKC. Early season could be off to a surprisingly quick start. El-Nino early season has few analogies. Another strange year of the unknowns ahead. Early season El-Nino, AB High out of place, and a drunk jet stream could lead to a very fun blog year and a much more sobering season of suffering for so many.


This is the very reason why my numbers are 14/8/3 and I still think that somewhere on the gulf coast
will have a Strong Hurricane this year....
just saying

taco :o)
Quoting 317. DeepSeaRising:
WKC did not take the chum thrown off the back of the boat Sar. Good back and forth. Well answered WKC. Early season could be off to a surprisingly quick start. El-Nino early season has few analogies. Another strange year of the unknowns ahead. Early season El-Nino, AB High out of place, and a drunk jet stream could lead to a very fun blog year and a much more sobering season of suffering for so many.
Chum? CHUM??? Well, I never...:-)

If the GFS is right, this storm makes landfall in the Keys in a little more than five days. Time to fish or cut bait.
Quoting 315. sar2401:

So what's the WKC model track for this system? We can all look at the models and see what they are doing. What do you think will happen with this system? Which model do you think probably has it right, at least for now? What timeline do you prefer.

The 00z GFS is much different than previous runs. It could hardly be more different. It has this storm in Key West by 06z on Thursday, going up to central Florida and then getting off the east coast by 00z Friday. It then travel inland upthe coast until it gets to about Washington DC at 00z Tuesday, June 9. It seems lose its identity as a low then, but it is still a trough spreading quite a bit of moisture all the way to Nova Scotia at 00a, Friday, June 12, almost exactly two weeks from now. According to the GFS, this storm is supposed to make landfall in the Keys 5.25 days from now, within that magic forecasting window. Do you buy the GFS solution or not? Time to stick your neck out, WKC.


I'm working on our model track and its not called the WKC model its the CHC model
I may reveal what I'm looking at later on Sat if not then Sun

for now I'm not sure which model I'd be leaning on maybe a mix of both GFS and CMC/GEM

this storm is in the NW Caribbean late Tue/early Wed and near keys on Thurs I know
with this system within the 5 day magic window and within the magic 7 day window
with the ensembles and CMC/GEM and Euro and NAVGEM on board yes I sorta buy it there is some slight doubt but its slight

I'd say this its still a bit early to be 85-95% sure on this
but I'll say 50-65% sure

could we both agree to this
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:


as I stated this is just thoughts on what could possibly happen

to answer the first bit
I think its a mix of multiple things one being the tropical wave second being monsoon trof/Panamanian low third being MJO maybe a few other things

to answer part 2 to the first bit around early Mon- early Wed give or take a day

development of low maybe development of TD

in terms of actual date/times of actual formation/development/forecast was left hazy for a reason there are a bit of questions that need answering first before we can get the day/time right those questions would take up the weekend to answer

those track lines that are in the cone is most of the models and ensembles over past few days also now need updating to add more E component that CMC/GEM has brought on recently

anyway more accurate and time accurate charts will be posted once these questions start being answered
Only a little more than five days before this storm hits the good ole US of A, WKC. No time for hemming or hawing about early Wednesday. Are you buying the GFS track and timeline or not? The NHC hasn't even mentioned the GFS model so far. Are they missing this storm, or what?
Got me Sar, mother was a college English professor; she'd be very pointing out that same error. She's 70 plus and still banging out 400 plus in scrabble. Talk about sobering. I'm doing great. Daughter just turned six. So busy, me doesn't exist anymore. Turns out that's not such a bad thing. Turned 38 this year though, every year, I really believe, seems to go faster. Grandfather on my Dad's side was on a PT boat at Normandy. Named his fist son Phillip Thomas for the PT. Still get the hair raised on my arms when I think back to the stories my Grandfather's told me about WWII. Mom's dad flew resupply missions for the British over Burma. If we don't brunt ISIS, we may find ourselves in another war that most don't think could happen. For not having any real air force, ISIS is spreading like cancer. Estimates are way to low on their manpower. My study leads me to believe they have well over 100k in manpower now. Anyone who knew me when I was Tribucanes knows I am no Republican. I am a truth seeking independent through and through. That said Obama is the new Chamberlain and this 60 country coalition is a paper tiger. One notices not the rabid dog roaming the neighbors' street until one day you open the door and there he is.
Quoting 317. DeepSeaRising:

WKC did not take the chum thrown off the back of the boat Sar. Good back and forth. Well answered WKC. Early season could be off to a surprisingly quick start. El-Nino early season has few analogies. Another strange year of the unknowns ahead. Early season El-Nino, AB High out of place, and a drunk jet stream could lead to a very fun blog year and a much more sobering season of suffering for so many.



thanks

Quoting 319. taco2me61:


This is the very reason why my numbers are 14/8/3 and I still think that somewhere on the gulf coast
will have a Strong Hurricane this year....
just saying

taco :o)


I have this bad gut sinky feeling that we may just end up with more storms that predicted

I also think that we will have less of the El Nino than what is predicted but who knows we just have to wait and see

Quoting 320. sar2401:

Chum? CHUM??? Well, I never...:-)

If the GFS is right, this storm makes landfall in the Keys in a little more than five days. Time to fish or cut bait.


I like this where us guys can have a decent talk and where we could throw in a few little funny moments
Quoting 322. sar2401:

Only a little more than five days before this storm hits the good ole US of A, WKC. No time for hemming or hawing about early Wednesday. Are you buying the GFS track and timeline or not? The NHC hasn't even mentioned the GFS model so far. Are they missing this storm, or what?


less than 5 days for the Start of this thing in the Caribbean

do I buy it yes or no? ... ...
I will go back to what I said
Quoting 321. wunderkidcayman:



I'm working on our model track and its not called the WKC model its the CHC model
I may reveal what I'm looking at later on Sat if not then Sun

for now I'm not sure which model I'd be leaning on maybe a mix of both GFS and CMC/GEM

this storm is in the NW Caribbean late Tue/early Wed and near keys on Thurs I know
with this system within the 5 day magic window and within the magic 7 day window
with the ensembles and CMC/GEM and Euro and NAVGEM on board yes I sorta buy it there is some slight doubt but its slight

I'd say this its still a bit early to be 85-95% sure on this
but I'll say 50-65% sure

could we both agree to this



look ask me this question again this evening or on Sun I may have your answer then
Quoting 322. sar2401:

Only a little more than five days before this storm hits the good ole US of A, WKC. No time for hemming or hawing about early Wednesday. Are you buying the GFS track and timeline or not? The NHC hasn't even mentioned the GFS model so far. Are they missing this storm, or what?


NHC forecast charts only go out 72hrs
if anything NHC may end up mentioning it either this evening or Sun or Mon

Quoting 321. wunderkidcayman:


I'm working on our model track and its not called the WKC model its the CHC model
I may reveal what I'm looking at later on Sat if not then Sun

for now I'm not sure which model I'd be leaning on maybe a mix of both GFS and CMC/GEM

this storm is in the NW Caribbean late Tue/early Wed and near keys on Thurs I know
with this system within the 5 day magic window and within the magic 7 day window
with the ensembles and CMC/GEM and Euro and NAVGEM on board yes I sorta buy it the is some slight doubt but its slight

I'd say this its still a bit early to be 85-95% sure on this
but I'll say 50-65% sure

could we both agree to this
Are you saying agree on the 00z GFS timeline and track? If so, no, I think the GFS is nuts. The 00z CMC shows a low still on the coast of Nicaragua at 00z on Thursday with nothing near Florida. The ECMWF is still running but the 12z shows what looks like a weak trough over Cuba at 12z on Thursday. These models have completely diverged, with the GFS now being the clear outlier. I think the ECMF has the solution closer to being right, assuming we see a low develop at all. A relatively weak low develops over Cuba, moves NNE between the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas on Friday, continues NE about 300 miles off the east coast of the US, and is absorbed by a front coming off the US between Monday and Tuesday, although that's getting beyond 10 days. I'm a rank amateur anyway, but until I see the NHC start talking about this storm, or at least mention the GFS in a discussion. I'm not buying it at all.
Quoting 326. wunderkidcayman:


NHC forecast charts only go out 72hrs
if anything NHC may end up mentioning it either this evening or Sun or Mon

No, the NHC looks at the GFS model just like we do. They routinely look at all models at five days. C'mon, WKC, you've been talking about this all week. You should be able to give us your forecast now. I've already said what I think will happen. You should be able to do the same.
Quoting 327. sar2401:

Are you saying agree on the 00z GFS timeline and track? If so, no, I think the GFS is nuts. The 00z CMC shows a low still on the coast of Nicaragua at 00z on Thursday with nothing near Florida. The ECMWF is still running but the 12z shows what looks like a weak trough over Cuba at 12z on Thursday. These models have completely diverged, with the GFS now being the clear outlier. I think the ECMF has the solution closer to being right, assuming we see a low develop at all. A relatively weak low develops over Cuba, moves NNE between the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas on Friday, continues NE about 300 miles of the east coast of the US, and is absorbed by a front coming off the US between Monday and Tuesday, although that's getting beyond 10 days. I'm a rank amateur anyway, but until I see the NHC start talking about this storm, or at least mention the GFS in a discussion. I'm not buying it at all.


I totally respect that

remember I said I sorta agreed with it not totally I have my doubts and I was not totally sure about it

that's why I'd rather wait till end of the weekend and see what we got then
Quoting 328. sar2401:

No, the NHC looks at the GFS model just like we do. They routinely look at all models at five days. C'mon, WKC, you've been talking about this all week. You should be able to give us your forecast now. I've already said what I think will happen. You should be able to do the same.


your right I should be able to by now but I want to be more confident more sure before I go ahead with this

plus I hate getting beaten up by Ghost storms

Quoting 324. wunderkidcayman:
I like this where us guys can have a decent talk and where we could throw in a few little funny moments
Me too. I'm not trying to hammer you. I'm really not. You've taken up a lot of blog space talking about this storm, and your apparently preferred model, the GFS, now has this only a little more than five days out. People read what you write and pay attention. Just like any forecaster, you have to be prepared to stick your neck out now. It's either going to happen like the GFS predicts or not. I'm on record saying it's not. What's your take, but no taking until Wednesday to get a fix on this.
Quoting 330. wunderkidcayman:


your right I should be able to by now but I want to be more confident more sure before I go ahead with this

plus I hate getting beaten up by Ghost storms

LOL. No forecaster likes getting beaten up over ghost storms. That lead forecaster in Philly took it on the chin for the ghost blizzard last winter, but that's the breaks of the profession. If you're working with the Cayman Met Service, you should be able to be reasonably sure if the GFS is right on this one or if it's out to lunch.

Edit: I'll let it rest here since it's getting way too late. I'll soon be writing like the GFS got a hold of the keyboard.:-) We'll see what happens by tomorrow afternoon.
Quoting 331. sar2401:

Me too. I'm not trying to hammer you. I'm really not. You've taken up a lot of blog space talking about this storm, and your apparently preferred model, the GFS, now has this only a little more than five days out. People read what you write and pay attention. Just like any forecaster, you have to be prepared to stick your neck out now. It's either going to happen like the GFS predicts or not. I'm on record saying it's not. What's your take, but no taking until Wednesday to get a fix on this.


I'm glad your not trying to hammer me, although in some way it sorta feels like it. btw GFS isn't really my most preferred model I do like the model and the GFS is one of the main models we use to do our local forecast also GFS shows this system in less than 5 days out but it is just short of 5 days out and it would be much better if it was 3 days or less and I did stick my neck out a bit and said yeah its possible maybe 50% maybe for now that's good until we get closer in time
Quoting 332. sar2401:

LOL. No forecaster likes getting beaten up over ghost storms. That lead forecaster in Philly took it on the chin for the ghost blizzard last winter, but that's the breaks of the profession. If you're working with the Cayman Met Service, you should be able to be reasonably sure if the GFS is right on this one or if it's out to lunch.

Edit: I'll let it rest here since it's getting way too late. I'll soon be writing like the GFS got a hold of the keyboard.:-) We'll see what happens by tomorrow afternoon.


yeah
Quoting 236. sar2401:

It would be pretty terrible but certainly not literally fatal in minutes. That 149 degree heat index was about as much of an outlier as you can get. More typical is a place like Mumbai, where the heat index just before the monsoon hits can reach 125 degrees. By comparison, Phoenix can reach a heat index of about 122-125 just before the monsoon hits there. The actual temperature is between 115 and 119 at least a couple of times a year. Yuma is even worse, with average high of 108 in July and a record high of 124. It's probably the only metropolitan area that reaches a heat index of 135 at least a couple of times before the monsoon hits there. Tops for cities over 50,000 though is Lake Havasu City, with a record of 128 degrees, and the only place with that large a population in the US where minimum temperatures will stay at or above 100 degrees at least several times during the summer. Obviously most people in those cities have A/C but, as an example, some farm workers around Yuma live in tents during the summer. How they do it is beyond me, but human beings seem to be able to adapt to some pretty horrific conditions when the need arises. My dad served as a motor machinist mate in PT boats in the Pacific during WWII, and the actual temperature in the engine room was often at 130 degrees. When I asked him how he stood it, he told me you get used to it. Tough guy.


The heat index in AZ is usually lower or at the temperature at most. Keep in mind that the monsoon in the southwest is relative to the region, i.e. rainfall averages in Phoenix and Yuma are during the monsoon are equivalent to dry season months like April in Florida. Rain does come, and rain is around, but rain and humidity is certainly not reliable. Usually dew points are in the 50's to at most 60's even during the monsoon, so seeing a heat index of 135 is very unlikely unless the temperature is nearly 135.

I lived in Arizona in my younger years and was born there, thunderstorms can be spectacular due to the extreme heat, and make for great photography sessions, but they are isolated most of the time, so waiting for rain there in the monsoon is like waiting for rain in the heart of the dry season in Florida.

Btw, sure there are short duration exceptions, but even the driest months here in Central Florida have had 5-10 inch rain events that come with occasional deep tropical moisture surges, but otherwise I'm referring to climatology.

Btw, despite the low dew points, the whole "but it's only a dry heat" is nonsense. I felt 100's there in Tucson AZ in dry heat, and it's still darn hot no matter what way you slice it. Actually, the heat was more dangerous there than here, because dry heat allows for rapid water loss due to efficient sweat evaporation. Humid heat feels dangerously hot before it actually becomes dangerously hot due to less sweat evaporation, and the feeling of being hot and soaked moves to people to cool off and hydrate faster than those active in dry heat.

Arizona is desert make no mistake, rain is hard to come by, and it felt like ages waiting for rain there compared to here, but it isn't terribly dry, and does receive enough rain to make it an interesting and lively place that has unique plants and animals.
Quoting 323. DeepSeaRising:
Got me Sar, mother was a college English professor; she'd be very pointing out that same error. She's 70 plus and still banging out 400 plus in scrabble. Talk about sobering. I'm doing great. Daughter just turned six. So busy, me doesn't exist anymore. Turns out that's not such a bad thing. Turned 38 this year though, every year, I really believe, seems to go faster. Grandfather on my Dad's side was on a PT boat at Normandy. Named his fist son Phillip Thomas for the PT. Still get the hair raised on my arms when I think back to the stories my Grandfather's told me about WWII. Mom's dad flew resupply missions for the British over Burma. If we don't brunt ISIS, we may find ourselves in another war that most don't think could happen. For not having any real air force, ISIS is spreading like cancer. Estimates are way to low on their manpower. My study leads me to believe they have well over 100k in manpower now. Anyone who knew me when I was Tribucanes knows I am no Republican. I am a truth seeking independent through and through. That said Obama is the new Chamberlain and this 60 country coalition is a paper tiger. One notices not the rabid dog roaming the neighbors' street until one day you open the door and there he is.
Well, when you go to Catholic schools for 12 years you sort of get grammar and spelling beaten into you - literally, at times. Those penguins were tough. :-)

PT's in the Atlantic had a lot better bases and living conditions than the guys in the Pacific, but the Atlantic was the worst place to stationed on a PT in terms of chances of dying. The German E boats were more than a match for our early PT's, and German torpedoes and tactics were superior to what we had. We were just lucky that the Germans didn't have all that many and that we killed most of their crews by the end of 1944 with airpower. If the Japanese had a naval strategy that allowed them to develop a fleet of PT's, their Long Lance torpedoes and superior night tactics would have taken a terrible toll. It's a darn good thing we developed superior radar when we did, especially radar for subs. That's what beat Japan, not the atomic bombs.

I have no clue what to do about ISIS. They are operating in their own backyard, and we have no effective way to be able to infiltrate or destabilize their movement. This is one of those times when the peopleof the countries threaten by ISIS have to step up. They either really don't want ot be governed by them and will fight or they do want ISIS (or don't care). In that case, we just have to leave them to their fate.
there is one thing though GFS, CMC/GEM, NAVGEM, Euro, and ensembles all agree that this system will form in some form or another in the NW Caribbean create impacts to the NW Caribbean whether or not its Yucatan Cuba Cayman impacts across Florida or NW Bahamas during the upcoming week

exactly when how strong and where are still a bit hazy
Quoting 326. wunderkidcayman:



NHC forecast charts only go out 72hrs
if anything NHC may end up mentioning it either this evening or Sun or Mon



Ok, although the NHC hasn't mentioned this low yet, TWC has. I personally, IMO , am leaning towards the GFS solution for the fact that the GFS has consistently shown this storm for over a week now, which may be an indicator that this isn't a ghost. NHC will probably include this in their outlook on Monday, for the fact that the official start of the season is less than 48 hours away. I personally understand your opinion about the model solutions. If the models verify, we would have Bill about 2 months early, especially for an el nino year. Who thinks we should have Bill before the epac's 2nd named storm????????
Quoting 336. sar2401:

Well, when you go to Catholic schools for 12 years you sort of get grammar and spelling beaten into you - literally, at times. Those penguins were tough. :-)

PT's in the Atlantic had a lot better bases and living conditions than the guys in the Pacific, but the Atlantic was the worst place to stationed on a PT PT in terms of chances of dying. The German E boats were more than a match for our early PT's, and German torpedoes and tactics were superior to what we had. We were just lucky that the Germans didn't have all that many and that we killed most of their crews by the end of 1944 with airpower. If the Japanese had a naval strategy that allowed them to develop a fleet of PT's, their Long Lance torpedoes and superior night tactics would have taken a terrible toll. It's a darn good thing we developed superior radar when we did, especially radar for subs. That's what beat Japan, not the atomic bombs.

I have no clue what to do about ISIS. They are operating in their own backyard, and we have no effective way to be able to infiltrate or destabilize their movement. This is one of those times when the people of the countries threaten by ISIS have to step up. They either really don't want ot be governed by them and will fight or they do want ISIS (or don't care). In that case, we just have to leave them to their fate.


That fate could see Saudi Arabia become completely unstable and civil war could break out. That happens and WWIII, at least regionally, becomes a reality. Their fate is our fate. Only a short matter of time before ISIS strikes the Homeland and kill hundreds. We become united again, and like after 9/ll, there is the will to intervene again. Talking half a trillion to rebuild what we destroyed in equipment when we left Iraq. To rebuild it and reship and equip a force of 100K, that's what we're looking at. ISIS is a real threat to Baghdad. Baghdad falls and Iran is the only force now ready to save the day. Hard to believe. The shields are down Captain and I see numerous Klingon ships on the horizon. The slaughter is what is so disturbing. We are shocked by NOTHING in the West anymore. The progressive left has made sure of that, while the Right's policy ensures that greed and economic fairness is a thing of the far past. 600 billion our corporations have on the books they are not spending. That doesn't include profit taking, which far far exceeds that. Every 100 points one the stock market is worth roughly 100 million. We've gone from 10K to where we are now. Everything is off kilter. The far left, the far right....... Is there anything else anymore? We have been keenly programmed in the West to one side or the other. A collapse is near and most are utterly clueless to that possibility and the Great Tribulation that would follow. Yet I remain hopeful. :) Such is the power of faith.


384....
Check Caribbean





Quoting 338. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Ok, although the NHC hasn't mentioned this low yet, TWC has. I personally, IMO , am leaning towards the GFS solution for the fact that the GFS has consistently shown this storm for over a week now, which may be an indicator that this isn't a ghost. NHC will probably include this in their outlook on Monday, for the fact that the official start of the season is less than 48 hours away. I personally understand your opinion about the model solutions. If the models verify, we would have Bill about 2 months early, especially for an el nino year. Who thinks we should have Bill before the epac's 2nd named storm????????


ok
I see and I agree
I'd say the earliest I see NHC mentioning or hinting at this could be midday today maybe Sun likely Sun or Mon
Quoting 335. Jedkins01:


The heat index in AZ is usually lower or at the temperature at most. Keep in mind that the monsoon in the southwest is relative to the region, i.e. rainfall averages in Phoenix and Yuma are during the monsoon are equivalent to dry season months like April in Florida. Rain does come, and rain is around, but rain and humidity is certainly not reliable. Usually dew points are in the 50's to at most 60's even during the monsoon, so seeing a heat index of 135 is very unlikely unless the temperature is nearly 135.

I lived in Arizona in my younger years and was born there, thunderstorms can be spectacular due to the extreme heat, and make for great photography sessions, but they are isolated most of the time, so waiting for rain there in the monsoon is like waiting for rain in the heart of the dry season in Florida.

Btw, sure there are short duration exceptions, but even the driest months here in Central Florida have had 5-10 inch rain events that come with occasional deep tropical moisture surges, but otherwise I'm referring to climatology.

Btw, despite the low dew points, the whole "but it's only a dry heat" is nonsense. I felt 100's there in Tucson AZ in dry heat, and it's still darn hot no matter what way you slice it. Actually, the heat was more dangerous there than here, because dry heat allows for rapid water loss due to efficient sweat evaporation. Humid heat feels dangerously hot before it actually becomes dangerously hot due to less sweat evaporation, and the feeling of being hot and soaked moves to people to cool off and hydrate faster than those active in dry heat.

Arizona is desert make no mistake, rain is hard to come by, and it felt like ages waiting for rain there compared to here, but it isn't terribly dry, and does receive enough rain to make it an interesting and lively place that has unique plants and animals.


Yeah, I was too high on the heat index for Phoenix. I was filing some of my old Daytimer calendars earlier today. I'm sure people your age have never used them, but it's what almost all businessmen used until the rise of PDA's and now phones with electronic calendars. You have a book for each month where you wrote appointments and to-do's on one side and a daily journal on the other. Even though I converted to electonic calendars way back in 1995 with my Psion 3c pocket computer, I still miss my Daytimer at times. Anyway, the reason for all this rambling was one weekend in July, 1991 when I was in Phoenix for a search and rescue seminar. They held it in July because rooms were cheap. Since you could only be outside for about 5 minutes before you felt lightheaded, I can see why. I keep track of the weather each day and back then I wrote it in my Daytimer. I was reading through some of my entries and found the temperature high that Saturday was 119 with a high humidty during the day of 20%, which converted to a heat index of 128. Normally, the humidity would be something like 5%, which gives you a negative heat index reading of something like 109. Like you say, even withouot the added heat stress of the higher humidity, 109 is still pretty darned hot.

My parents lived in the north Sacramento Valley, where an average summer high was 100 and the humidity was 10%. You get a negative heat index reading with that also, but that's why swamp coolers worked so well. 100 with an RH of 10% converts to a dewpoint of 35, so you could get 40-44 degree air from a swamp cooler, plus it added humidity, which you needed. Wouldn't work here but it worked great in any place out West. Do you remember the huge shocks you'd get when you touched something metal because of the static electricity charge you'd build up? Man, I hated those. Those monsoonal thunderstorms can drop a spectacular amount of rain in a short period of time. I was in Vegas for one of those and watched cars from the Circus Circus parking lot float down the strip. Two hours later, only the upside down cars gave you a hint there had been a huge flood. There are times I miss the desert and the weather there.



From Mexico to Illinois.

Some good news from Texas. http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/05/29/man-rescues-ki tten-in-storm-drain-despite-warnings-not-to/

ROWLETT(CBSDFW.COM) – A kitten’s cry from deep inside a storm drain prompted a risky rescue.

Neighbors say police, firefighters and animal control all deemed it too dangerous to try to retrieve the kitten. So folks in the area banded together to attempt it themselves.
well IF this verifies, Thursday will be one stormy dayin Florida,but we need the rain from this................
folks..suppose the GFS is dead right and this storm does indeed come into florida Thursday..anyone have any idea on its possible winds?..rain we surely can use..its the winds we worry about thanks in advance
nws Miami..........................
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK...STARTING
BY THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIPRES ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO PUSH INTO THE MISSISIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER FLORIDA. A MOISTURE SURGE AND
POTENTIALLY A LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF. GFS HAS THE UPPER
FEATURE QUICKLY CLOSING OFF BY MID-WEEK...WITH FAIRLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW BRISKING LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH FROM CLOSING OFF
UNTIL LATE WEEK...WITH LOPRES NOT ORGANIZING UNTIL IT HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AGREE WITH THE GENERAL FASTER MOVEMENT
OF THE GFS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW SEEMS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES REACH
OVER 2 INCHES. LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS AS GFS SENDS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...WHEREAS ECMWF KEEPS EXTREMELY MOIST AIR-MASS IN PLACE.

&&
Quoting 352. LargoFl:
folks..suppose the GFS is dead right and this storm does indeed come into florida Thursday..anyone have any idea on its possible winds?..rain we surely can use..its the winds we worry about thanks in advance
Largo, if this storm is in Florida Thursday or Friday then the NHC and WPC are dead wrong. This is the surface map for Thursday -



And Friday -



These maps show what appear to be a trough that approaches Florida as a left over from a dying stationary front. That trough gets trapped between a high to the west and east. It can't go anywhere until at least Saturday so it sits over central then south Florida until at least Saturday and then dissapates offshore on Sunday. If anything forms at all it would be on Sunday from the tail end of the dissapating trough. Florida should get some decent rains with this kind of setup. I don't see any kind of tropical storm for the next week in Florida. It should be a good week overall for the places that need rain.

I have no idea why I woke up at this ungodly hour. :-)

EDIT: I did not read the Miami discussion before I posted, LOL.
Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN BY
LATE MON. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING LOW PRES FROM THIS
WAVE...AND AGGRESSIVELY SPINNING IT UP WHILE TAKING IT NEWD FROM
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE FAR SE GULF WED. FOR NOW WILL
DISCOUNT THAT SOLN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY THERE...AND BLEND
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MORE REASONABLE SOLN FROM THE LATEST
ECMWF INTO THE NDFD GRIDS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A TROUGH FEATURE INSTEAD OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN.







Link
Just south of Plano. The thunder is weird. Short bursts, not rolling. Weird weird. Makes you wonder. Time to recheck the radar.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
455 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 454 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN...AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PLANO...CARROLLTON...FRISCO...DENTON...LEWISVILLE. ..FLOWER MOUND...
COPPELL...THE COLONY...SOUTHLAKE...CORINTH...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...
TROPHY CLUB...LAKE DALLAS...SANGER...LAKE LEWISVILLE...LITTLE
ELM...ROANOKE...KRUM...PILOT POINT AND ARGYLE.
We've had rain, thunder, flash flood warnings for days. Only now do I feel a little on edge, a bit spooked.
361. flsky
Major disaster declared for 3 counties in Texas.
After today there is really no more rain forecast for Texas for the next 2 weeks.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015


.DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT EAST CENTRAL FL
BEACHES...

TODAY...
LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW LVL MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM EAST
TO WEST INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE INTERIOR INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 30 PCT CSTL TO 35-40 PCT FOR THE
INTERIOR. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM FOR THE
INTERIOR BUT THINK LIGHTNING STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST
WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WEST ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
LATE TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTRIBUTING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DETAILING THE HIGH
RIP CURRENT HAZARD. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 INLAND.

TONIGHT...
EASTERLY FLOW TO 10 KNOTS EARLY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW MAKING IT
INTO THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
AN ERLY WAVE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL TROF
PUSHING INTO THE MID SOUTH/MIDWEST TO COLLAPSE THE WRN FLANK OF A HI
PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW LVL ERLY FLOW THAT
DOMINATED THE WX PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE S/SE THRU THE DAY SUN IN RESPONSE...WHILE THE H85-H50
STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. UPR LVL WINDS WILL FRESHEN
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF
PRESSES ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
SIG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.

THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MINOR MID LVL
VORT MAXES TO PUSH ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WHILE ALLOWING DEEP LYR
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. H50 TEMPS ARND -10C WILL PRODUCE SOME
RESPECTABLE H70-H50 LAPSE RATES...BTWN 6-5-7.0C/KM. HOWEVER...A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL BE
PICKED UP BY THE FRONTAL TROF OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION...
MOISTURE THAT THE INCREASING UPR LVL WINDS WILL PULL ACRS FL. AS UPR
LVL CLOUDS TEND TO LIMIT SFC HEATING AND THE LOW LVL ERLY FLOW
FAVORS THE W PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY FOR THE INTERIOR AND SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST. MAX/MIN
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (U80S/L90S AND
U60S/L70S RESPECTIVELY).

MON-MON NIGHT...
WX PATTERN SHIFT AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
DROPS INTO CENTRAL FL...ALLOWING LOW/MID LVL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
S/SW. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP UP...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR
THRU THE H70-H50 LYR COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT COVERAGE TO LESS THAN 50PCT. EVEN SO...THE SWRLY MID LVL
FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOW BACK PRECIP ALONG AND N OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHILE H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES ARND 70PCT SHOULD
GENERATE SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE.

INCREASING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE PRESSES INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT TO INCREASE
DIURNAL STORM POTENTIAL...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TSRAS AS MAX TEMPS
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS (L90S). MIN TEMPS L70S.


TUE-FRI...
AN INTERESTING FLIP FLOP IN THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED WRT
THE DLVPMENT OF AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIB/SE GOMEX THRU
MIDWEEK. WHEREAS THE 29/00Z ECMWF DVLPD A CLOSED SFC LOW (ALBEIT A
WEAK ON) OVER S FL THRU MIDWEEK AND THE 29/00Z GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX... BOTH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
30/00Z SOLUTIONS HAVE ADOPTED THE OTHER`S FROM 24HRS AGO.

ECMWF NOW SHOWS NO HINT OF A CLOSED SFC LOW AND KEEPS THE FEATURE AS
AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WELL
DEFINED (AND SURPRISINGLY STRONG) CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED AND LIFTS IT UP THE FL PENINSULA ON THU.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION (IF EITHER) VERIFIES...IT APPEARS THE
FL PENINSULA WILL BE IN FOR A MUCH WETTER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH
MODELS SATURATE THE AIRMASS FROM SFC TO CIG BY MIDDAY WED.

WHILE IT IS UNUSUAL TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT DAY 5/6...THE
NECESSARY WX ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY AS THE ERLY WAVE MERGES WITH THE
FRONTAL TROF EARLY IN THE IN WEEK AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WELL
E OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LIFT N OUT OF THE WRN CARIB AND INTO FL.
EXTENDED PD OF
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO AVG (M/U80S) WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
KEEPING MIN TEMPS ABV AVG (L/M70S).


Looks like it is going to be a hot one!!
Ugh again
CBSDFW ‏@CBSDFW 48m48 minutes ago

#BREAKING: FAA puts up Ground Stop for flights taking off for @dfwairport because of storms here. Expect delays to build.
Quoting 359. jamesrainier:

We've had rain, thunder, flash flood warnings for days. Only now do I feel a little on edge, a bit spooked.
Hope you don't get anything serious there. NW TX has been relatively lucky so far ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THAT WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL FIND THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS POSITION PUTS OUR REGION WITHIN A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST...AND GENERALLY MOIST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK
GRADIENT AND EITHER LIGHT/VARIABLE 1000-700MB FLOW...OR VERY WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MIGRATING
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL SHOW THIS
PROGRESSION WITH COASTAL POPS PEAKING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INLAND POPS PEAKING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK WE GO...THE GLOBAL MODELS WANT TO STALL
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE
IT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
DEGREE OF CLOSING IS NOT IN AGREEMENT...AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON
TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY. GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND HIGHER
SPATIAL RAIN CHANCES THAN WOULD BE CLIMO FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MEMBERS WANT TO
PICK UP A PIECE OF ILL-DEFINED VORTICITY OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LIFT IT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW.
THERE ARE HIGHLY VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH AT THIS TIME...WITH THE CONSENSUS BEING FOR A WEAK IMPULSE OR
SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL MENTION FOR THE SAKE OF MENTIONING...THAT
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...AND ENDS UP WITH A MORE DEFINED SURFACE
LOW...HYBRID SYSTEM...MOVING NORTH. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THAT
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE...EVEN THE GFS SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT
BAROCLINIC IN NATURE. THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.
PROPER FORECASTING IS TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND BEING ABLE/WILLING TO SEPARATE THE OUTLIERS
IF NECESSARY. THE GFS IS A FAR OUTLIER CURRENTLY...AND WILL KEEP ITS
INFLUENCE LOW IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
Quoting 368. BahaHurican:

Hope you don't get anything serious there. NW TX has been relatively lucky so far ...


Thanks. It's heavy rain and thunder and lightning now, so it seems "normal". I went outside until it started to rain. It was strangely quiet, though with thunder from the distance and wind blowing from the opposite direction than the radar would suggest, and the clouds just did not move or change shape.
NWS Melbourne Fl.


TUE-FRI...
AN INTERESTING FLIP FLOP IN THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED WRT
THE DLVPMENT OF AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIB/SE GOMEX THRU
MIDWEEK. WHEREAS THE 29/00Z ECMWF DVLPD A CLOSED SFC LOW (ALBEIT A
WEAK ON) OVER S FL THRU MIDWEEK AND THE 29/00Z GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX... BOTH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
30/00Z SOLUTIONS HAVE ADOPTED THE OTHER`S FROM 24HRS AGO.

ECMWF NOW SHOWS NO HINT OF A CLOSED SFC LOW AND KEEPS THE FEATURE AS
AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WELL
DEFINED (AND SURPRISINGLY STRONG) CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED AND LIFTS IT UP THE FL PENINSULA ON THU.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION (IF EITHER) VERIFIES...IT APPEARS THE
FL PENINSULA WILL BE IN FOR A MUCH WETTER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH
MODELS SATURATE THE AIRMASS FROM SFC TO CIG BY MIDDAY WED.

WHILE IT IS UNUSUAL TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT DAY 5/6...THE
NECESSARY WX ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY AS THE ERLY WAVE MERGES WITH THE
FRONTAL TROF EARLY IN THE IN WEEK AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WELL
E OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LIFT N OUT OF THE WRN CARIB AND INTO FL. EXTENDED PD OF
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO AVG (M/U80S) WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
KEEPING MIN TEMPS ABV AVG (L/M70S).

CBSDFW has some distractingly good looking weatherpeople.
Quoting 371. hurricanewatcher61:

NWS Melbourne Fl.


TUE-FRI...
AN INTERESTING FLIP FLOP IN THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED WRT
THE DLVPMENT OF AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIB/SE GOMEX THRU
MIDWEEK. WHEREAS THE 29/00Z ECMWF DVLPD A CLOSED SFC LOW (ALBEIT A
WEAK ON) OVER S FL THRU MIDWEEK AND THE 29/00Z GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX... BOTH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
30/00Z SOLUTIONS HAVE ADOPTED THE OTHER`S FROM 24HRS AGO.

ECMWF NOW SHOWS NO HINT OF A CLOSED SFC LOW AND KEEPS THE FEATURE AS
AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WELL
DEFINED (AND SURPRISINGLY STRONG) CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED AND LIFTS IT UP THE FL PENINSULA ON THU.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION (IF EITHER) VERIFIES...IT APPEARS THE
FL PENINSULA WILL BE IN FOR A MUCH WETTER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH
MODELS SATURATE THE AIRMASS FROM SFC TO CIG BY MIDDAY WED.

WHILE IT IS UNUSUAL TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT DAY 5/6...THE
NECESSARY WX ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY AS THE ERLY WAVE MERGES WITH THE
FRONTAL TROF EARLY IN THE IN WEEK AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WELL
E OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LIFT N OUT OF THE WRN CARIB AND INTO FL. EXTENDED PD OF
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO AVG (M/U80S) WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
KEEPING MIN TEMPS ABV AVG (L/M70S).


Looks great on rain chances this coming week
From post 323:
"If we don't brunt ISIS, we may find ourselves in another war that most don't think could happen. For not having any real air force, ISIS is spreading like cancer. Estimates are way to low on their manpower. My study leads me to believe they have well over 100k in manpower now. Anyone who knew me when I was Tribucanes knows I am no Republican. I am a truth seeking independent through and through. That said Obama is the new Chamberlain and this 60 country coalition is a paper tiger. One notices not the rabid dog roaming the neighbors' street until one day you open the door and there he is. "

There are far worse threats than ISIS out there. The biggest one by far and it's relation to the ISIS threat is explained nicely in an article here:

Link

From the article:
"But this is nothing by comparison to the real threats to global security, which make global security, as understood by McCain and Obama, look almost frivolous. As the evidence accumulates, it now seems that climate change was the commonest cause of mass extinction in the Earth’s prehistory."

and.......

"Yes: the geological record suggests that fossil fuel burning might have eliminated most life on Earth.

And today? According to a paper published in 2013, the current rate of ocean acidification, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is faster than at any time in the past 300m years. During the Permian mass extinction, the eruption of the Siberian Traps through the Tunguska basin seems to have produced between one and two gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year. Today fossil fuel burning produces 30 gigatonnes a year.

Isis? Global security? If anyone were to survive a mass extinction on the scale of the Permian catastrophe, they would look back and shake their heads, amazed that we could have considered such issues more important."


I find myself doing more and more eyerolls and facepalms listening to the politics of today. It all seems like childish bickering and I am becoming almost unable to sit through it anymore.
Science, climate, and weather are an interesting read most times. Even if some of the bickering follows. I can enjoy my day off by hanging out with the dogs out in the yard (might hit 90F), doing some chores around the house, catching up on some reading, hanging out on the blog, and staying away from the politics show.


Thank goodness! looking forward to it. My lawn needs it. Really dry over here on the space coast. We did receive a nice down pour early this morning, showers coming in off the Atlantic.
Quoting 373. LargoFl:

Looks great on rain chances this coming week
376. yoboi
Are There Any Evils Global Warming Is Not Responsible For?

Link
Precipitation here in Fort Myers.

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 1.45
SINCE MAR 1 4.94
SINCE JAN 1 8.13

Only 8" of rain in 5 months. No wonder we're having fire problems in our area.
8.5 magnitude earthquake around Japan. One that strong can produce a massive tsunami. Thankfully, depth was 432 miles, too deep for a tsunami to occur.

Edit: Also appears to have been downgraded to a 7.8.
Quoting 377. Sfloridacat5:

Precipitation here in Fort Myers.

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 1.45
SINCE MAR 1 4.94
SINCE JAN 1 8.13

Only 8" of rain in 5 months. No wonder we're having fire problems in our area.


12' here YTD which is about 3.5" below normal.
Some people, including myself sometimes, need to understand that talking about track and intensity on a storm that isn't even there yet, is not necessary..
Even if the majority of the models show a storm, it's really hard to make accurate assumptions about it..

When the NHC mentions is, it's an invest, or maybe not even until it has a COC is when we should start looking ahead in its possible track to see what intensity it could reach.

Debby is a good example...If you looked at the models and told Texas that a Cat. 2 was comin, kinda unneded considering she hit FL as a TD basically...

You just never know..lol
Mud Lake Fires Continue to Burn for 21 Straight Days (this is down in extreme S.W. Florida)
The fires have burned 35,311 acres of various Preserve habitats which include: dense, coarse grass; pine timber; and cypress domes. Containment is currently 51%.
Link

Quoting 378. MAweatherboy1:

8.5 magnitude earthquake around Japan. One that strong can produce a massive tsunami. Thankfully, depth was 432 miles, too deep for a tsunami to occur.

Edit: Also appears to have been downgraded to a 7.8.
good thing it wasn't on land..that sure would have caused a lot of damage there
Quoting 381. Sfloridacat5:

Mud Lake Fires Continue to Burn for 21 Straight Days
“The fires have burned 35,311 acres of various Preserve habitats which include: dense, coarse grass; pine timber; and cypress domes. Containment is currently 51%.
Link


rain should be coming now that our rainy season is beginning,hopefully putting the fires out
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 740 AM CDT...MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE
WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...AND AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS
LIKELY. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PLANO...CARROLLTON...FRISCO...DENTON...LEWISVILLE. ..FLOWER MOUND...
COPPELL...THE COLONY...SOUTHLAKE...CORINTH...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...
TROPHY CLUB...LAKE DALLAS...SANGER...LAKE LEWISVILLE...LITTLE
ELM...ROANOKE...KRUM...PILOT POINT AND ARGYLE.
Quoting 352. LargoFl:

folks..suppose the GFS is dead right and this storm does indeed come into florida Thursday..anyone have any idea on its possible winds?..rain we surely can use..its the winds we worry about thanks in advance


It's too early to say anything..could be nothing but just moisture and winds 10-20mph. Remember, models are bullish early in the season on systems, so wait till it develops if at all... 40% as of now. Also, it's not the wind if it develops (TS) it's the excessive rainfall that is the most worried about thing in TS under 60mph (-25 for inland). Once winds hit 60mph in a TS, you have more chances then for power outages.
I know that rainfall can be spotty at times in North Central Florida but I have never seen it this extreme before. At my place there has only been about 1/8 of an inch in the last month.( Not sure of the exact time frame) Yet less than 5 miles away there has been rain aplenty. A friend of mine who lives 12 miles NW of me received 4.5 inches in the same time period!

I have seen this happen before but only for a week or two. But never this extreme for so long. My grass and even small shrubs are wilting big time. Having to water shrubs that have been pretty well established.

I have tried making sacrifices to appease the rain gods but to no avail. Leaving my truck windows open, leaving stuff outside that shouldn't get wet. I even hauled water to some azaleas too far from my place to reach them with the garden hose. Usually if you work hard watering your plants it will rain the next day. Nothing doing. Plenty of near misses by afternoon thunderstorms, Close but no cigar.
Quoting 376. yoboi:

Are There Any Evils Global Warming Is Not Responsible For?

Link



Another horribly biased opinion piece that does nothing more than to confirm your own biases. Funny.
Quoting 311. sar2401:

You done caught me. :-) Seriously though, what grade were you in when you first started posting? It seems to me that it was first or second year of high school, maybe even younger. As I've said before, I was shocked when I learned your age because you wrote so well. No matter how smart you are about anything else, good writing skills will give you that extra dimension when you're in competition with other people who might be just as smart but don't have those skills. It's also important when you are writing anything for public consumption. Frankly, with the grammar and spell checkers we have on computers now, there's really not much excuse for sloppy writing.

9th.

Edit: actually no, it was 8th grade because I was a freshman during Irene.
The planet has warmed and we are responsible. Denying basic physics and ignoring the fact that a warmer world changes the very conditions that effect weather seems like possibly the peak of the mountain of total ignorance, yet here we are and the view is terrifying.
Why Bill Nye really pissed off the Ted Cruz right: It’s no longer possible to avoid talking about climate change

Wednesday, the New York Times published an article about why Texas might want to heed climate scientists’ warnings, even if they can’t say just how much climate change contributed to the recent flooding. “Climate change is not causing these events — they’ve always happened naturally,” Katherine Hayhoe, a prominent climate researcher, said. “But climate change is exacerbating these events.”

In a Facebook comment, Michael Wehner, a computational climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Labs who Hayhoe called “THE MAN when it comes to understanding the relationship between natural variability, human influence, and climate extremes,” confirmed that the recent floods were significantly more severe than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate, and that human-driven warming also doubled the likelihood of Texas’ 2011 drought. And he expressed his concern that the general conversation still hasn’t seemed to grasp these realities, let alone the severity of the situation.

“I fear that as a community, we have very severely understated the present dangers,” Wehner wrote. “To say nothing of the future.”


Link
Quoting 390. Naga5000:

The planet has warmed and we are responsible. Denying basic physics and ignoring the fact that a warmer world changes the very conditions that effect weather seems like possibly the peak of the mountain of total ignorance, yet here we are and the view is terrifying.
Good morning Naga. The planet was warming before we started polluting. We are responsible for some , but not all of it.
Good morning everyone. I thank all the Awesome bloggers here for great information from the Major Earthquakes in Alaska and Japan to a possible TS or Hurricane depends if storm can rapidly intensify. Great job all bloggers. I see that USGS downgraded the 7.8 EQ in Japan. I believe it was higher 8.1-8.2 at that depth major earth changes are occurring. 7.1 EQ in Alaska just yesterday. I my opinion I believe this is caused by Isotasy or Post glacial rebound. For example glaciers melt, less weight and density on landmasses, bang land moves and rises. I believe a warmer planet with positive feedbacks abound = methane and CO2 emissions from natural sources like swamp or hydrates embedded in the ocean floor. Now weather wise. Looking at the computer models I am getting AMPED to see a potential tropical system developing in the NW Caribbean. If wind shear relaxes, and SSTs are continued warm and the system festers down there this could develop into something substantial. For those in South or Central Florida please contact me. I am skywarn trained from the NWS and it would be great to see this storm develop
Quoting 357. jamesrainier:

Just south of Plano. The thunder is weird. Short bursts, not rolling. Weird weird. Makes you wonder. Time to recheck the radar.


Quoting 392. hydrus:

Good morning Naga. The planet was warming before we started polluting. We are responsible for some , but not all of it.


Morning, while that is true (depending on your starting point for temperature, we were in a long term cooling trend, shorter term warming before the anthropogenic signal) and the amount of human influence is debatable, there is little evidence to conclude that we are not responsible for the majority of observed warming (with some studies saying we are responsible for All current observed warming), and regardless of the source of warming, a warmer planet allows for changes to the basic atmospheric parameters that effect weather. Which is my contention with the Yoboi article, and the response of some here in regards to climate change and weather events. All weather is being impacted by some degree by climate change. It doesn't matter if you think the warming is from us or completely natural. Denial of that concept is an entirely new denial of physics by proxy of denial of climate change. I just wanted to point that out since the last few days have involved discussion of how climate change played into the big rain events. People are now confusing their disbelief in human caused climate change with disbelief in atmospheric science which should be pointed out as a huge red flag of biased thinking and absolute ideological reasoning, not science.
397. yoboi
Quoting 390. Naga5000:

The planet has warmed and we are responsible. Denying basic physics and ignoring the fact that a warmer world changes the very conditions that effect weather seems like possibly the peak of the mountain of total ignorance, yet here we are and the view is terrifying.


I agree the view is terrifying...We have a hard time predicting hurricanes weeks out...See that daily with the long range models...With tornadoes hrs out is doing good...El nino not very good....Snow several blown forecast...Rain 2-3 days best...But by some magic we have it figured out for the year 2100....Just yesterday you and others were talking about how we will have stronger hurricanes toward the end of the century....SMH The NHC has a hard enough time predicting intensity with a current storm days out....Yes the view is terrifying thinking we NOW know what the future holds....
Had another quick downpour last night & a few already this morning. GEOS-5 is showing the B & C storms coming..well not to FL. This first one forms on Tuesday & moves to the north & joins up with another low.



Then this one forms in the same general area Monday after next.

Quoting 397. yoboi:



I agree the view is terrifying...We have a hard time predicting hurricanes weeks out...See that daily with the long range models...With tornadoes hrs out is doing good...El nino not very good....Snow several blown forecast...Rain 2-3 days best...But by some magic we have it figured out for the year 2100....Just yesterday you and others were talking about how we will have stronger hurricanes toward the end of the century....SMH The NHC has a hard enough time predicting intensity with a current storm days out....Yes the view is terrifying thinking we NOW know what the future holds....


Way to completely ignore and fail to address my post and instead engage in typical off topic blathering.

Does a warmer planet change the basic conditions that affect weather, yes or no?
400. yoboi
Quoting 399. Naga5000:




Way to completely ignore and fail to address my post and instead engage in typical off topic blathering.

Does a warmer planet change the basic conditions that affect weather, yes or no?


Yes I never disagree with that...but adding 10 extra rain drops to the many thousand that are falling due to natural occurrences is not really that big of deal....
Quoting 400. yoboi:



Yes I never disagree with that...but adding 10 extra rain drops to the many thousand that are falling due to natural occurrences is not really that big of deal....


10 extra raindrops per square foot, even square meter is a pretty big deal... Think small, view small. (Don't ignore the bigger picture here).
Quoting 400. yoboi:



Yes I never disagree with that...but adding 10 extra rain drops to the many thousand that are falling due to natural occurrences is not really that big of deal....


The article you posted disagrees with that basic concept, your argument that climate change is not affecting the weather disagrees with that very premise, so why are you contradicting yourself? Are you merely throwing whatever crap sticks at the wall in an effort to discredit climate change, even if it is contradictory and goes against your own "Acceptance" of science? And what is your source on 10 per "many thousand". It sounds like you are making up numbers again. How can you be so sure of the exact numbers?
Quoting 397. yoboi:



I agree the view is terrifying...

Yes knowing how much more water the warmer air can hold and possibly dump on you now at any given time & that we also still can't predict it happening down exactly when it is to happen, with 100' resolution & a 1/4 of an inch accuracy is some what concerning. TX isn't the only place flooding crazy this week.

China: People evacuated after devastating floods destroy thousands of homes

Published on May 29, 2015
A video has been released showing rescuers evcauate residents in southern China after a series of devastating floods destroyed thousands of homes.
what catastrophes have happened to the earth that have never happened in the history of the earth?
Thats what will make a believer out of me said the MONKEYS lol
405. yoboi
Quoting 402. Naga5000:



The article you posted disagrees with that basic concept, your argument that climate change is not affecting the weather disagrees with that very premise, so why are you contradicting yourself? Are you merely throwing whatever crap sticks at the wall in an effort to discredit climate change, even if it is contradictory and goes against your own "Acceptance" of science? And what is your source on 10 per "many thousand". It sounds like you are making up numbers again. How can you be so sure of the exact numbers?


With a warmer atmosphere you have the potential for more liquid.. But that alone does drive the amount that will fall.. Historically records were set when CO2 was lower and the climate cooler....Thus concluding CO2 is not driving the weather...

Quoting 405. yoboi:



With a warmer atmosphere you have the potential for more liquid.. But that alone does drive the amount that will fall.. Historically records were set when CO2 was lower and the climate cooler....Thus concluding CO2 is not driving the weather...




Logic fail and an attempted goal post move. Thanks, as always, for the disingenuous conversation.
The idea that change in trend, which relates to the average, necessarily equates to record breaking which related to a minimum/maximum, is absolutely mind boggling. Even more so that the U.S. is once again the world. Thanks post 405 for showing us exactly how wrong one can be.
Quoting 405. yoboi:



With a warmer atmosphere you have the potential for more liquid.. But that alone does drive the amount that will fall.. Historically records were set when CO2 was lower and the climate cooler....Thus concluding CO2 is not driving the weather...




Are you serious? The increased frequency of the heavier rainfall events over the past century, especially in the last few decades, tells the whole story.

Link

One area in TX just got more than 10 inches of rain already with the latest landcane to be rolling across there.



Quoting 408. SLINKY:



Are you serious? The increased frequency of the heavier rainfall events over the past century, especially in the last few decades, tells the whole story.

Link




Yes he is completely serious. :(
Quoting 388. Naga5000:


Another horribly biased opinion piece that does nothing more than to confirm your own biases. Funny.
Oh, I don't know what you're so upset about. I get all my climate news from Investors Business Daily. I just wish that NOAA would do better with their stock market news, but that's what happens when I try depend on the .gov for anything useful.....
Quoting 389. TropicalAnalystwx13:

9th.

Edit: actually no, it was 8th grade because I was a freshman during Irene.
Eigth grade. I think I was still trying to figure out how to make baseball cards sound cooler in my bike spokes when I was in eigth grade. Whatever your parents did in raising you, and what you did to absorb it, worked. :-)
lawns??toxic.runoff
Quoting 387. Wacahootaman:
I know that rainfall can be spotty at times in North Central Florida but I have never seen it this extreme before. At my place there has only been about 1/8 of an inch in the last month.( Not sure of the exact time frame) Yet less than 5 miles away there has been rain aplenty. A friend of mine who lives 12 miles NW of me received 4.5 inches in the same time period!

I have seen this happen before but only for a week or two. But never this extreme for so long. My grass and even small shrubs are wilting big time. Having to water shrubs that have been pretty well established.

I have tried making sacrifices to appease the rain gods but to no avail. Leaving my truck windows open, leaving stuff outside that shouldn't get wet. I even hauled water to some azaleas too far from my place to reach them with the garden hose. Usually if you work hard watering your plants it will rain the next day. Nothing doing. Plenty of near misses by afternoon thunderstorms, Close but no cigar.
Wash your car. Wash all your cars. Then wash your neighbor's cars. On both sides of you. Works every time for me. :-)
Quoting 402. Naga5000:


The article you posted disagrees with that basic concept, your argument that climate change is not affecting the weather disagrees with that very premise, so why are you contradicting yourself? Are you merely throwing whatever crap sticks at the wall in an effort to discredit climate change, even if it is contradictory and goes against your own "Acceptance" of science? And what is your source on 10 per "many thousand". It sounds like you are making up numbers again. How can you be so sure of the exact numbers?
Radar Dog snatched an entire Chinese meal we had just brought home from the restaurant yesterday. He was able to get it off the counter and eat the entire thing without either of us hearing anything. Only the empty styrofoam box bore witness to his evil deed.

I patiently explained to him why taking food off the counter was such a bad thing, and that it was going to make his mother and me not love him any longer if he continued. I could tell from looking deeply in his big brown eyes that he was hearing what I was saying. What he was hearing was "Blah, blah blah, babble babble, blah".

Remind you of anyone other than a dog? ;-)
Texas is underwater. India is being crushed by heat. It is 91 degrees in central Alaska. Manitoba is on fire. Russia is melting.....and so on.

And yet I come here and read some of the comments posted by people who clearly don't understand science but can't accept what is happening outside the window and my head just spins.
Quoting 369. sporteguy03:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.
PROPER FORECASTING IS TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND BEING ABLE/WILLING TO SEPARATE THE OUTLIERS
IF NECESSARY.
THE GFS IS A FAR OUTLIER CURRENTLY...AND WILL KEEP ITS
INFLUENCE LOW IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
Maaybe we can somehow get the bolded part to autorepeat once an hour near and during hurricane season. :-)
Quoting 405. yoboi:



With a warmer atmosphere you have the potential for more liquid.. But that alone does drive the amount that will fall.. Historically records were set when CO2 was lower and the climate cooler....Thus concluding CO2 is not driving the weather...




Wow talk about defining narrow minded... Think small, view small... Open your eyes, see the forest through the trees.
Quoting 359. jamesrainier:
We've had rain, thunder, flash flood warnings for days. Only now do I feel a little on edge, a bit spooked.
The adrenaline of nothing but storm after storm is starting to wear off. Now you have some time to think about what might have happened to you personally. This is when most people start to feel edgy, and that's pretty normal.
Quoting 389. TropicalAnalystwx13:


9th.

Edit: actually no, it was 8th grade because I was a freshman during Irene.


You had to be 12 when you first started busting our chops. I remember it well. :)
Quoting 417. sar2401:
Maaybe we can somehow get the bolded part to autorepeat once an hour near and during hurricane season. :-)


I agree. I was surprised this discussion was not posted already. The GFS could very well be correct, but at the moment it is just that an outlier.
Quoting 416. NMPhotog:

Texas is underwater. India is being crushed by heat. It is 91 degrees in central Alaska. Manitoba is on fire. Russia is melting.....and so on.

And yet I come here and read some of the comments posted by people who clearly don't understand science but can't accept what is happening outside the window and my head just spins.



This isn't about science-- that was settled over a hundred years ago.
This is about taxes, regulation, and Free Market ideology.
Arguing is useless, but somewhat enlightening as to how reality can be skewed by attachment to world views.
http://youtu.be/cnU3YEtTYw8
Quoting 405. yoboi:


http://c3headlines.typepad.com


Is yer source for dat Derp Thingee?

LoL

EPIC FAIL,

once again.

Flame baiter, strikes out at Home.


Quoting 417. sar2401:

Maaybe we can somehow get the bolded part to autorepeat once an hour near and during hurricane season. :-)


Nah, I'm sticking to GFS operational only, beginning at 296 hours.
Good Morning Everyone..

00z Navgem Ensembles starting at 150 hours




Quoting 415. sar2401:

Radar Dog snatched an entire Chinese meal we had just brought home from the restaurant yesterday. He was able to get it off the counter and eat the entire thing without either of us hearing anything. Only the empty styrofoam box bore witness to his evil deed.

I patiently explained to him why taking food off the counter was such a bad thing, and that it was going to make his mother and me not love him any longer if he continued. I could tell from looking deeply in his big brown eyes that he was hearing what I was saying. What he was hearing was "Blah, blah blah, babble babble, blah".

Remind you of anyone other than a dog? ;-)


Yes, but since we can't get rid of the Chinese food snatching mutt, we have to keep trying training, right? :)
Quoting 404. K8eCane:

what catastrophes have happened to the earth that have never happened in the history of the earth?
Thats what will make a believer out of me said the MONKEYS lol


Nuclear War, Carbon being dug up and re introduced into the biosphere by a Native species, (us)

Thats a long list sista'.



429. beell
Quoting 369. sporteguy03:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THAT WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL FIND THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS POSITION PUTS OUR REGION WITHIN A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST...AND GENERALLY MOIST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK
GRADIENT AND EITHER LIGHT/VARIABLE 1000-700MB FLOW...OR VERY WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MIGRATING
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL SHOW THIS
PROGRESSION WITH COASTAL POPS PEAKING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INLAND POPS PEAKING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK WE GO...THE GLOBAL MODELS WANT TO STALL
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE
IT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
DEGREE OF CLOSING IS NOT IN AGREEMENT...AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON
TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY. GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND HIGHER
SPATIAL RAIN CHANCES THAN WOULD BE CLIMO FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MEMBERS WANT TO
PICK UP A PIECE OF ILL-DEFINED VORTICITY OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
LIFT IT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW.
THERE ARE HIGHLY VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH AT THIS TIME...WITH THE CONSENSUS BEING FOR A WEAK IMPULSE OR
SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL MENTION FOR THE SAKE OF MENTIONING...THAT
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...AND ENDS UP WITH A MORE DEFINED SURFACE
LOW...HYBRID SYSTEM...MOVING NORTH. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THAT
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE...EVEN THE GFS SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT
BAROCLINIC IN NATURE. THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.
PROPER FORECASTING IS TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND BEING ABLE/WILLING TO SEPARATE THE OUTLIERS
IF NECESSARY. THE GFS IS A FAR OUTLIER CURRENTLY...AND WILL KEEP ITS
INFLUENCE LOW IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS.


Best discussion out there right now.
Quoting 427. Naga5000:



Yes, but since we can't get rid of the Chinese food snatching mutt, we have to keep trying training, right? :)


Yer gonna need LOTSA newspaper me tinks.
Quoting 374. wartsttocs:

From post 323:
"If we don't brunt ISIS, we may find ourselves in another war that most don't think could happen. For not having any real air force, ISIS is spreading like cancer. Estimates are way to low on their manpower. My study leads me to believe they have well over 100k in manpower now. Anyone who knew me when I was Tribucanes knows I am no Republican. I am a truth seeking independent through and through. That said Obama is the new Chamberlain and this 60 country coalition is a paper tiger. One notices not the rabid dog roaming the neighbors' street until one day you open the door and there he is. "

There are far worse threats than ISIS out there. The biggest one by far and it's relation to the ISIS threat is explained nicely in an article here:

Link

From the article:
"But this is nothing by comparison to the real threats to global security, which make global security, as understood by McCain and Obama, look almost frivolous. As the evidence accumulates, it now seems that climate change was the commonest cause of mass extinction in the Earth’s prehistory."

and.......

"Yes: the geological record suggests that fossil fuel burning might have eliminated most life on Earth.

And today? According to a paper published in 2013, the current rate of ocean acidification, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is faster than at any time in the past 300m years. During the Permian mass extinction, the eruption of the Siberian Traps through the Tunguska basin seems to have produced between one and two gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year. Today fossil fuel burning produces 30 gigatonnes a year.

Isis? Global security? If anyone were to survive a mass extinction on the scale of the Permian catastrophe, they would look back and shake their heads, amazed that we could have considered such issues more important."


I find myself doing more and more eyerolls and facepalms listening to the politics of today. It all seems like childish bickering and I am becoming almost unable to sit through it anymore.
Science, climate, and weather are an interesting read most times. Even if some of the bickering follows. I can enjoy my day off by hanging out with the dogs out in the yard (might hit 90F), doing some chores around the house, catching up on some reading, hanging out on the blog, and staying away from the politics show.





Millions of American's are unable to sit through it anymore. Both political parties want exactly that. Enough people tune out and nothing changes. As far as saying AGW is worse than ISIS, that is an unknown. Tell that to anyone in ISIS held territories who are Shiites or Christians. Tell that to the children buried alive. It's a comparison that can't be made. Agree AGW is proven, perhaps the % we are responsible is debatable, but evidence is we are very much largely responsible for what's happening. The Yoboi's of the world are shameless and either work with a heavy agenda, love the attention, have never studied the OVERWHELMING evidence, or are so hoodwinked by the Right that they have lost the ability to seek truth for themselves. AGW effects will be over time and become increasingly severe with many many unknowns. Long term it will cost tens of trillions and kill millions if real large scale efforts are not made. AGW, long term, next hundred years will be the biggest threat. We have to get there first. Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, another World War, total financial collapse; lots of things could happen that get us before AGW does. I'll give you this, AGW is the long term largest threat to the world.
from 429-

THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.



and I been sayin' for three days, NOT to watch the GFS.
Folks are gonna pick the model frame that best impacts a given area....usually theirs.


It's what some do..


If one follows the GFS frames, one could ride right off a Fla. cliff into da abyss.




Quoting 427. Naga5000:


Yes, but since we can't get rid of the Chinese food snatching mutt, we have to keep trying training, right? :)
Well, yesterday I was considering a moderate beating. That might work in other cases too. ;-)
Quoting 428. Patrap:



Nuclear War, Carbon being dug up and re introduced into the biosphere by a Native species, (us)

Thats a long list sista'.







Well when you put it like that, OK
I thought that crystal ball analysis yesterday stated the low by the bahamas was supposed to dissipate yesterday? well its still there



Quoting 146. Xandra:

From NOAA Climate.gov:

Alaska sets new record for earliest day with temperatures in the 90s

It’s been a warm, dry spring for much of interior Alaska. On the afternoon of May 23, a new statewide record was set for the earliest day in the year with a temperature in the 90s. A daytime high of 91°F was noted by a cooperative observer in Eagle, where temperatures have been recorded (with some breaks) since the 1890s.


Temperature in Alaska on the afternoon of May 23, 2015, based on data from NOAA's Real-time Mesoscale Analysis.

This temperature map of Alaska shows the unusual warmth on May 23, 2015, at 2 p.m. local time in Fairbanks. Based on NOAA’s Real-time Mesoscale Analysis data, it shows air temperatures at 2 meters (6.6 feet) above the ground. Temperatures below 45° are shades of blue, and temperatures above 45° are shades of orange and red.

The warmest temperatures are located inland—away from the moderating influence of the ocean—at the foot of mountain ranges and along rivers. Fairbanks, for example, is on the banks of the Tanana River in a low-lying area between the Alaska Range to the south and the White Mountains to the north-northeast.

The 91° temperature at Eagle smashed that location’s all-time record for May. It was 30.1° hotter than the average daily high temperature in May (59.5°F), and 18.1° warmer than the average high temperature in July, Eagle’s warmest month of the year. So far this month, Eagle has set or tied ten daily high temperature records.


Each month's average daytime high temperature (red), average (gray), and overnight low (blue) in Eagle, Alaska, for 1981-2010. On average, the daytime high temperature in May is just shy of 60°F. On May 23, 2015, it was 91°F. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, based on U.S. Climate Normals data.

Read more >>
The 91° temperature at Eagle smashed that location’s all-time record for May. It was 30.1° hotter than the average daily high temperature in May (59.5°F), and 18.1° warmer than the average high temperature in July, Eagle’s warmest month of the year. So far this month, Eagle has set or tied ten daily high temperature records.

Quoting 429. beell:



Best discussion out there right now.


The NWS here in Ruskin always has great discussions, and I like that someone posted this one considering some are acting so sure that a tropical system will develop.
441. 1344
Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.
Quoting 433. aquak9:
from 429-

THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.



and I been sayin' for three days, NOT to watch the GFS.
To be fair, it's possible the GFS may turn out to be the one with the right solution. Outliers have turned around to be right and dragged the other models with them. Those are the exceptions, however, and they don't prove the rule. As of right now, the GFS doesn't appear to have the right solution. Given its performance so far, I doubt it will have the right solution this time, but I wouldn't discount it completely.
well another great day on the blogs I see
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Quoting 440. Jedkins01:


The NWS here in Ruskin always has great discussions, and I like that someone posted this one considering some are acting so sure that a tropical system will develop.
Too bad the NWS doesn't have some kind of "Discussion of the Month" we can vote for. It would be a good thing to encourage the kind of clear and unequivocal discussion that this forecaster wrote.
Quoting 419. sar2401:

The adrenaline of nothing but storm after storm is starting to wear off. Now you have some time to think about what might have happened to you personally. This is when most people start to feel edgy, and that's pretty normal.


For me personally it's generally been "can't go out because of all the rain" rather than adrenaline, with "check to make sure there aren't any tornadoes", so the weird sounding atmosphere is what spooked me.
Quoting 441. 1344:
Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.
Sun is just starting to come up over Andres now. You can already see the eye. Pretty good looking storm compared to yesterday at this time. Good thing it's not forecast to affect land so far.

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Saturday 30 May 2015




Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:80.6°F
Dewpoint:65.7°F
Humidity:60%
Wind:SW 13 gust 19 mph
Humidex: 92
EP012015 - Hurricane ANDRES

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 398. Skyepony:

Had another quick downpour last night & a few already this morning. GEOS-5 is showing the B & C storms coming..well not to FL. This first one forms on Tuesday & moves to the north & joins up with another low.



Then this one forms in the same general area Monday after next.



Seems to me that it's much more likely that nothing tropical will develop at all given the model consensus for an upper trough to cutoff in the eastern gulf. Seems to me that there may be some weak, broad low or surface trough that will lift north across the eastern gulf and Florida helping to enhance rainfall with a deep tropical moisture surge beneath the cool air aloft and divergent flow of the trough.

Overall, seems like a typical rainy season event, there should be beneficial rains for most of the state.
Quoting 447. jamesrainier:


For me personally it's generally been "can't go out because of all the rain" rather than adrenaline, with "check to make sure there aren't any tornadoes", so the weird sounding atmosphere is what spooked me.
I suspect there's a bit of adrenaline mixed in there as well but that's just speaking for me. One of the things that happens when you've been constantly vigilant for days at a time is that things do start sounding funny. You may not have noticed that strange thunder during a normal summer thunderstorm.
Uh, oh

A Cigar Indian Head

Thats never good.

Quoting 452. Grothar:





Quoting 433. aquak9:

from 429-

THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.



and I been sayin' for three days, NOT to watch the GFS.


key words
THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT

they my not put weight on it now but later they might just do that and start piling on the weights
Quoting 437. ncstorm:

I thought that crystal ball analysis yesterday stated the low by the bahamas was supposed to dissipate yesterday? well its still there






"gee"

Anyone remember this monster? That was a close call. Whew!
Quoting 441. 1344:

Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.


I really enjoyed as a kid watching my mom track Gulf of Mexico hurricanes via coordinates given on the weather radio and the map grid that came in the Houston Post.

That reminds me of the time my mom was playing back a symphony she'd tape recorded off the radio during the approach of a hurricane, with breaks in the music giving updates on the storm, and my dad kept getting up to look out the window.
Quoting 437. ncstorm:

I thought that crystal ball analysis yesterday stated the low by the bahamas was supposed to dissipate yesterday? well its still there






expected to open up to sfc trof and dissipate within 48hrs give or take
Quoting 425. Naga5000:


Nah, I'm sticking to GFS operational only, beginning at 296 hours.
I looked all the way out to 348 hours and there's a high in the Gulf. That's not going to encourage much discussion. Probably a good thing though. After the beating Florida is going to take during the upcoming week, it's going to be a while before you get the internet back anyway. :-)

Hmmm..... Interesting.
Quoting 452. Grothar:




A "FIM" fatale?
Where is the PlanFlaf Model when you need it
Quoting 453. sar2401:

I suspect there's a bit of adrenaline mixed in there as well but that's just speaking for me. One of the things that happens when you've been constantly vigilant for days at a time is that things do start sounding funny. You may not have noticed that strange thunder during a normal summer thunderstorm.


It sure wasn't like a normal thunderstorm. It was the calm before the storm with the storm wrapping around Dallas from the north and the west. Maybe the thunder from the lightning on either side of the line was clashing in the inside space and doing interesting things to the sound waves.
Quoting 465. jamesrainier:



It sure wasn't like a normal thunderstorm. It was the calm before the storm with the storm wrapping around Dallas from the north and the west. Maybe the thunder from the lightning on either side of the line was clashing in the inside space and doing interesting things to the sound waves.






Here's a thought.

Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Quoting 464. K8eCane:

Where is the PlanFlaf Model when you need it


Prolly a lurking somewhere close practicing the "Two-Tone" talk.
Quoting 463. GeoffreyWPB:



A "FIM" fatale?


lol. In film noir no less. :)


Small but nice....
all the NOAA's FIM models develop the system just off the coast of Honduras moves it NE-ENE towards Cuba then there is a spread between each one after this point but mainly S Florida or NW Bahamas
471. beell
Quoting 469. sunlinepr:



Small but nice....


She looks big enough to me...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 462. HurriHistory:


Hmmm..... Interesting.
Sure was nothing Easy about Easy :P

Good Afternoon All.
Quoting 462. HurriHistory:

Hmmm..... Interesting.
Since 1950-1951 was a weak La Nina there's not much of a connection to what's expected for 2015.
so what im gathering from the nws discussions, that tropical wave coming east will stall oh say under Cuba and develop a LOW, the Low we will be watching for this coming week around Florida..along with all that tropical moisture with it.
Quoting 420. Grothar:



You had to be 12 when you first started busting our chops. I remember it well. :)
I'm pretty sure the record will show he was still 12 ...
Quoting 455. wunderkidcayman:



key words
THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT

they my not put weight on it now but later they might just do that and start piling on the weights
Even you weren't giving it that much weight last week. I know some of the other models had similar solutions earlier this week, but that was before the rain train got stuck in TX .... still 4 days from potential genesis, yes?
Quoting 457. HurriHistory:


Anyone remember this monster? That was a close call. Whew!
We got hit by this pretty bad in the nw Bahamas. A 110 ft. talk mango tree crushed my dad's car and just missed our house ...
Quoting 452. Grothar:




Well that would be a colossal disappointment up here in the Tampa Bay area, just breezy hot and dry. Thankfully that's an experimental model and the chances of that outcome are slim, lol.



Dear Jeff, I am a fan, following your blogs all the time. But the list above, as you know, is one of comparing apples and pears. Only in a few months can you establish the excess mortality during the current heatwave in India by comparing the figures to the average of lets say the last ten years. It is very well possible that we are talking tens of thousands counting like that as has been done in the 2003 European heatwave.
Quoting 441. 1344:

Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.

I follow them. I'm from Louisiana, but have lived in San Diego since 1998. San Diego is so due. It's been over a century since SD was last hit by a hurricane (1858). Last couple of years though have been more active, getting some tropical storm remnants in late summer. We need any rain Mother Nature can muster, just not with lightning.