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Epic Rains, Disastrous Floods Plague Texas, Oklahoma

By: Bob Henson 2:24 PM GMT on May 26, 2015

Water cascaded through the streets, creeks, and bayous of downtown Austin and Houston on Monday as an upper-level storm inched its way across the southern Great Plains. Slow-moving thunderstorms dumped 6” to 8” across the western Houston metro area between 8:00 and 11:00 p.m., and heavy rains continued well past midnight across much of the south and west metro area, bringing some totals as high as 10+”. Though the Houston flooding came well short of that in 2001’s catastrophic Tropical Storm Allison, countless roads and interstate highways were submerged, and hundreds of homes reportedly took water. This was the latest salvo in a remarkable three-day stretch of torrential rain and destructive flooding across much of Oklahoma and Texas and parts of neighboring states. As of Tuesday morning, the floods had taken at least 8 lives, with at least 12 people missing, and damaged or destroyed many hundreds of buildings.


Figure 1. Damage along River Road in Wimberley, Texas, from a devastating flash flood on Saturday night, May 23. Photo credit: Jerry Lara/The San Antonio Express-News, via AP.

Some of the worst damage occurred in and near the much-touristed town of Wimberley, located along the Blanco River in the Texas Hill Country west of Austin. After a mesoscale convective system (MCS) dropped upward of 7” upstream of Wimberley on Saturday afternoon, the river surged to a new record high in spectacular fashion later that night (see Figure 2 below). The Hill Country has a tragic history of flash flooding, and prompt evacuations no doubt saved many lives. This weekend also saw several “flash flood emergency” declarations by the National Weather Service. This wording is reserved for the highest-end events, much like the “tornado emergency” tag issued when substantial numbers of people are in particular danger. From Saturday through Monday, flash flood emergencies were declared in parts of the Tulsa, Austin, and Houston areas, as well as five counties in west-central Oklahoma. It was the first time that Tulsa and Houston had ever been placed under such alerts.



Figure 2. The level of the Blanco River at Wimberly soared from a more 5 feet on Saturday afternoon, May 23, to a record 40.21 feet at 1:01 am CDT Sunday, more than 7 feet above the prior record. The river gauge stopped reporting after this point. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 3. Infrared satellite imagery shows the extremely cold cloud tops (gray) associated with the torrential rains in the Houston area at 9:15 pm CDT on Monday night, May 25. Cloud-top temperatures at the height of the storms were colder than -100°F. Note the two eerie faces visible across southeast Texas! Larger version here [with time code but without state boundaries]. Image credit: NASA Earth Science Office, courtesy Stu Ostro.


The scope and intensity of this weekend’s rains resulted from a rich feed of low-level moisture pumping into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, combined with the excruciatingly slow movement of the large-scale storm system. Upper-level winds were largely aligned with the low-level frontal zone, an ideal setup for “training echoes” (successive downpours over the same area). In addition, rains were concentrated by several mesoscale convective vortices, small-scale centers of low-pressure that developed along the frontal bands, in some cases resembling mini-tropical cyclones.


Figure 4. Damaged homes stand next to others that were razed when a powerful tornado tore through a seven-block area in Ciudad Acuna, Mexico, on Monday morning, May 25. Image credit: AP.

A deadly tornado strikes northern Mexico at daybreak
Although flooding was the main threat across Texas and Oklahoma, nearly 100 tornado reports were logged nationwide by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center over the three-day holiday weekend. The deadliest twister so far this year in North America struck on Monday morning in Cuidad Acuña, Mexico, a city of about 200,000 located on the Rio Grande across from Del Rio, Texas. With reported wind estimates in the EF4 range, the tornado killed at least 13 people and injured at least 150, with more than 1,000 homes damaged. [Update: Maria de Jesus Guadalulpe Gallo Banda, from Mexico's National Water Commission, has estimated that peak gusts were 220 kilometers per hour (137 mph), which would correspond to an EF3 rating, or an F2 rating in the original Fujita scale, which is still used in Mexico.] The powerful twister emerged around 7:00 am CDT from an isolated supercell thunderstorm that likely benefited from very strong dynamics associated with an upper-level jet streak plowing across Mexico (see Figure 4). Monday’s disaster brings to mind a similar event that occurred 60 miles to the southeast of Cuidad Acuña on April 24, 2007, when a tornado produced F4 damage in Piedras Negras, Mexico, killing 3 people, and EF3 damage across the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass, Texas, where 7 people died. In general, North American tornadoes this strong are very unusual at such a low latitude. No F5/EF5 events have ever been confirmed this far south in the U.S. or Mexico, and TornadoHistoryProject.com shows that only 10 of 555 U.S. tornadoes rated F4 or EF4 between 1950 and 2014 occurred near or south of 30°N. Six of these were in Texas, two in Louisiana, and two in Florida. Half of them occurred during El Niño conditions (about twice the number you would expect based on El Niño frequency alone), and half occurred between 1:00 am and 11:00 am local time. The strong subtropical jet streams associated with El Niño typically bring very cold upper-level air, which enhances instability, and the powerful jet-level winds help ventilate the rising air within thunderstorms. Moreover, at these low latitudes, surface temperature and moisture values can be high enough to produce very unstable air even during the late night and early morning.


Figure 5. WunderMap analysis of flow at the 200-hPa level (about 39,000 feet) at 1200 GMT on Monday, May 25. A powerful subtropical jet can be seen flowing eastward across Mexico, then northward through the Mississippi Valley. The tornadic supercell at Cuidad Acuna, Mexico, occurred about an hour before the time of this analysis, near the left front corner of a powerful “jet max” (the greenish strip across Mexico). Severe storms tend to occur most often at the left front and right rear of jet maxima, where upward motion is favored. Also evident is the mammoth ridge extending from western Canada into the Arctic Ocean, where record-high temperatures have been observed in recent days. The northwestern ridge and western U.S. trough have persisted through much of May.

Precipitation persistence: the story of 2015
One of the most intriguing questions in climate change research is whether blocking-type patterns might be fostered by rising global temperatures and the resulting effects on jet-stream behavior. Over the last month, the same pattern favoring heavy rain across Texas and Oklahoma has kept rain away from the Northeast. It was just three months ago that an unprecedented month-long stretch of heavy snowfall brought Boston and much of New England to its frosty knees. A couple of individual snowstorms within that stretch were among Boston’s heaviest, but it was the relentlessness of the cold, snowy conditions that truly stood out and caused such misery. Likewise, the unrelenting rainfall across the southern Plains this month has caused pile-on effects, as downpours flow off saturated soil and farmers struggle to get spring crops planted. During the 30 days ending on May 25, Norman, OK, received an astounding 24.10”. Oklahoma is now assured of its wettest month on record, according to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.


Figure 6. 30-day precipitation from 1200 GMT April 25 through May 25, 2015. Some parts of southern Oklahoma and far north Texas have received more than 20” of rain, while central New England has recorded less than half an inch. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Here are some individual locations that have already set records for their wettest May as of midnight Monday night, with nearly a week left to go in the month. (Thanks to Nick Wiltgen at the Weather Channel for compiling these statistics.)

Oklahoma City, OK: 18.85” (previous May record 14.52” in 2013; previous all-time record 14.66” in June 1989)
Fort Smith, AR: 18.07” (previous May record 13.67” in 1943; previous all-time record 15.02” in June 1945)
Austin, TX (Camp Mabry): 16.72” (previous May record 14.10” in 1895; all-time record 20.78” in Sept. 1921)
Wichita Falls, TX: 14.15” (previous all-time record 13.22” in May 1982)

Meanwhile, back in the Northeast, the tables have turned in a way that might have seemed hard to fathom three months ago. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought (D1) covering all of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, as well as parts of New York, Maine, and Pennsylvania. Even the enormous snowfalls of February didn’t contain especially large amounts of moisture compared to what can fall in a midwinter New England rainstorm, and the tap hasn’t been flowing much at all lately. In the 30 days ending on May 26, less than an inch of rain fell across most of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England, with some locations getting little more than sprinkles. Further south, only a trace has fallen this month in Charlotte, North Carolina. Reservoirs and water tables in New England are still in relatively good shape, but streamflows are quite low. Potential records for driest or second-driest May at locations with more than a century of data include:

Concord, NH: 0.07” (record low 0.50”, 2008; records begin in 1903)
Providence, RI: 0.51” (record low 0.57”, 1939; records begin in 1904)
Hartford, CT: 0.60” (record low 0.73”, 1959; records begin in 1905)
Boston, MA: 0.31” (record low 0.25”, 1944; runner-up 0.32”, 1903; records begin in 1872)
Albany, NY: 0.31” (record low 0.15”, 1903; runner-up 0.73”, 1920; records begin in 1874)
New York, NY (Central Park): 0.32” (record low 0.30”, 1903; runner-up 0.34”, 1887; records begin in 1871).

A change in the prevailing upper-level features toward more zonal (west-to-east flow) across North America, as outlined by Steve Gregory in his latest blog, may help put some of these dry-May records out of reach. A midweek front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a better chance of widespread wetting rains over the weekend into early next week as a front stalls across the mid-Atlantic.

Watch for a report from Jeff Masters on NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane outlook for 2015, scheduled for release on Wednesday. We will also be covering the devastating pre-monsoonal heat wave that has taken hundreds of lives across India.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. Departures from average outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the period from April 23 to May 22, 2015. OLR is maximized when skies are clear and minimized when outgoing radiation is blocked by clouds and precipitation. A belt of lower-than-average OLR values extends from the eastern tropical Pacific (where El Niño has warmed the sea surface) to the central and western United States, illustrating the likely connection between El Niño and this month’s heavy rainfall. See the AGU blog by Dan Satterfield for more on this apparent link. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD, courtesy Eric Blake.

Additional footage at Barton Springs Rapids, umm... Pool.

Posted by Austin Parks and Recreation Department on Sunday, May 24, 2015

Video 1. Barton Springs Rapids, on Barton Creek within the city limits of Austin, lived up to its name on Sunday, May 24, prior to the area’s second round of major flooding on Monday. If embedded video does not play, it can be viewed here. Image credit: Austin Parks and Recreation Department.


Figure 8. An ironic scene from the town of Cache, in southwest OK, on Sunday, May 24. Image credit: wunderphotographer lmalcolm.
Huge Mammatus Clouds
Huge Mammatus Clouds
Like A Scene From A Sci-Fi Movie.
A good start
A good start
This was shot probably 15 minutes after intercepting the storm. It was thunderstorm warned shortly after we arrived for golf ball sized hail.
Lightning Storms in Brenham
Lightning Storms in Brenham
May 25, 2015 storms produced a lot of lightning.
insane post storm clouds at 620N and W Parmer Ln
insane post storm clouds at 620N and W Parmer Ln
Who knows what kind of clouds these are?? They're beautiful and also terrifying.

Flood Tornado Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Quoting 405. Jedkins01:



Well northwest Hillsborough does naturally allow for sea breeze convergence with an east flow as thunderstorms move up and around the bay, and I've seen that before. So I think it makes sense NW Hillsborough gets nailed more, but tonight was a whole different weird story. The intense thunderstorms that continued to moved into the same rain cooled areas while missing areas without rain is something I haven't seen before, it seems to "defy meteorology".

Now, that wouldn't be unusual if we had a front or low over the area, as weather systems can produce consistent convergence of rainfall in a rain cooled area by forcing, but this is sea breeze activity, so I'm having a hard time making sense of it.
I live in Odessa just south of the paso co line and was amazed at what happened yesterday. I have lived here all my life (24 years) and have not had such continuous activity from a seabreeze. If I didn't have access to any radar or met data, I would have guessed that we were in the outer edges of tropical storm passing well offshore with a training band over us... It just did not stop. I picked up 5.2" between 7 and 11 pm, recorded a gust of 35 mph, and had numerous strikes within a quarter mile of me. Matt wasn't exaggerating at all when he said the lightning was continuous. 
As for the dynamics of the thing, I have NO idea... I was beneath the original sea breeze collision which seemed to rain itself out after an hour or so and 3" of rain, but then another cell reformed to the east of the bay and moved NW right up into my area. That one slowly diminished by about 9:30 when I went to bed before I was awakened at 10:15 to insane lightning again and another 1.5"!
Quoting 493. NativeSun:

Wish I could plus more than once, as you are one of the few on here who looks at both sides of the debate. To many on here screaming the world is going to end tomorrow, due to climate change.
Would you mind too awful much providing links to comments here where anyone is "screaming the world is going to end tomorrow, due to climate change"? I've not seen any, but I'd love to. Be warned, however: until you provide those links, most of the thinking people here will have to assume your comment is just another lame and baseless strawman argument, one with no basis in facts or reality. Thanks in advance!
Quoting 488. yoboi:



Wow 7 pumps worth over a million dollars and they placed them over where the water is breaching....The Government must be in charge....
Suggest you read up on Archimedes Principle vis-a-vis pump placement before commenting further. Thanks!
No better way to jump start the Wet Season across FL with a Gulf system sitting west of FL. If this is how we are starting off the season across FL then we are in for a long haul the next 5 months. With ENSO strengthening any system that forms will be close to the US hence the focus of the rains being concentrated across the SE US the next few months.

GFS week 2 precip anomalies



505. yoboi
Quoting 503. Neapolitan:

Suggest you read up on Archimedes Principle vis-a-vis pump placement before commenting further. Thanks!


First rule of thumb you don't place equipment on top of levee where water is breaching....Now if you can suspend pumps over in a secure manner different story....If that levee goes to full breach in that picture those pumps are washed away....Principle common sense goes a long way.....go ahead stick with the manual and not think for yourself??
Eric Blake@EricBlake12
#ElNino base state w/high tropics shear weak WHemi MJO signal suggests a higher latitude WAtl/GOM TC chance week 2.



509. Ed22
Good morning weather fokes, that feature over the tropical Atlantic north of San Juan Puerto Rico, it looks fairly impressive. If upper level winds relaxed more this fairly impressive tropical feature be on the move of becoming something tropical worthy. This year Texas has fair share torrential rain, flooding, destroying of homes by Tornados. I feel it for those people who have to rebuild and start all over again... Ed22 from Bull Savannah in St. Elizabeth; Jamaica W.I.. Good morning again everyone...
Quoting 493. NativeSun:

Wish I could plus more than once, as you are one of the few on here who looks at both sides of the debate. To many on here screaming the world is going to end tomorrow, due to climate change.


Those words have never been written by me. I do correct misinformation on climate change whenever possible. There is no debate on the causes, by continuing to attempt to frame it as such, you and others only serve to spread misinformation. quite frankly, it's very insulting to those with an appreciation for science.
Good Morning. Heard a great post on NPR this morning on the way to work; "Most people tend to gravitate to information and facts which support their own beliefs"............ Open Your Minds.....................

On the weather front, the big picture for the Atlantic and eastern E-Pac; lots of moisture out there along the ITCZ on both sides:

Quoting 493. NativeSun:

Wish I could plus more than once, as you are one of the few on here who looks at both sides of the debate. To many on here screaming the world is going to end tomorrow, due to climate change.

Yeah, better see society as we know it go down without knowing why, so shut up those Cassandras.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS- D-13-00059.1
Sao Paulo and California are next but please do dream on.
Quoting 376. StormTrackerScott:

Close to 6" of rain now near Tampa and its still coming down. Houston part 2?

Just incredible rainfall rates ongoing across the Tampa area. Folks turn around don't drown as flooding is becoming an issue.




I had 5" in 2.5 hours and 4" in a single hour 9:30 to 10:30AM June 10, 2014 from backbuilding cells in what looked like an innocuous situation in College Park MD three hours prior when a single tiny cell dropped 0.1". The cell moved about 4 miles NE and then began backbuilding very slowly. This was not forecast and these are very hard to forecast. A very similar situation flooded me July 4,2004, also a morning (10:30AM to noon) event.
That feature North of PR is an elongated upper level low (Tutt) but the vort is slowly working it's way down to the surface; and interesting watch to see if the convection can continue all the way down over the next several days or fizzle out:

Upper Level


Mid Level


Surface Level
Quoting 398. yoboi:



Indeed....






I hear that if you keep posting this graph, you get an Anthony Watts belly rub and a "I Luv Roy Spencer" plushie.

This graph was debunked before you ever laid eyes on it, and it's still garbage now. The only thing that graph has ever demonstrated is that there is no bar low enough that deniers won't slide under to justify their ignorance. Deniers just love to misrepresent data. You can't go to a denier site without tripping over a graph of garabage. No physics mind you, because that actually would involve research, math, and whole bunch of reality that deniers seem allergic to. For example, Spencer deliberately manipulated the HadCRUT data to make it seem artificially low. No complex analysis is needed to figure that out. You can get the data here: Link along with a full explanation of how the data is generated, what it represents, etc. If you look at the actual data and compare it to what Spencer put in his graph, you'll notice a rather large discrepancy. Can't imagine how that got there.

And that's just one of the obvious distortions.

Even if you accept the graph at face value (something stupid to do with anything coming from the anti-science crowd), it still shows the models as being correct. The ensemble mean and the current global temperature anomaly are in very good agreement (about .7C-.75C). Unfortunately Roy "The Manipulator" Spencer forgot to work his magic on all the other series to bring everything else down as well. Or maybe then his manipulation would be too obvious and he didn't ant to push it, sort of like how he continues to employ a flawed adjustment scheme to his precious satellite data. Regardless, even with his deliberate distortion the graph shows the models as being pretty much spot on.
517. Ed22
MY 2015 HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTIONS

JUNE 1, 2015 to NOVEMBER 30,2015 marks the start and end of the Hurricane Season. 11 to 15 named storm this year Hurricane Season are expected to form, of the those expected to form 3 to 6 could become Hurricanes, 2 to 4 could become major Hurricanes (category 3 or greater ). The rest tropical storm and tropical depressions are expected to form during this period "el-nino"...
CBSDFW retweeted
Jennifer Lindgren @JLindgrenCBS11 · 6m 6 minutes ago

NEW: Ellis Co. Engineer and dam builder say dam at Lake Padera will NOT break. Integrity is secure.
519. yoboi
Quoting 516. Xyrus2000:



I hear that if you keep posting this graph, you get an Anthony Watts belly rub and a "I Luv Roy Spencer" plushie.

This graph was debunked before you ever laid eyes on it, and it's still garbage now. The only thing that graph has ever demonstrated is that there is no bar low enough that deniers won't slide under to justify their ignorance. Deniers just love to misrepresent data. You can't go to a denier site without tripping over a graph of garabage. No physics mind you, because that actually would involve research, math, and whole bunch of reality that deniers seem allergic to. For example, Spencer deliberately manipulated the HadCRUT data to make it seem artificially low. No complex analysis is needed to figure that out. You can get the data here: Link along with a full explanation of how the data is generated, what it represents, etc. If you look at the actual data and compare it to what Spencer put in his graph, you'll notice a rather large discrepancy. Can't imagine how that got there.

And that's just one of the obvious distortions.

Even if you accept the graph at face value (something stupid to do with anything coming from the anti-science crowd), it still shows the models as being correct. The ensemble mean and the current global temperature anomaly are in very good agreement (about .7C-.75C). Unfortunately Roy "The Manipulator" Spencer forgot to work his magic on all the other series to bring everything else down as well. Or maybe then his manipulation would be too obvious and he didn't ant to push it, sort of like how he continues to employ a flawed adjustment scheme to his precious satellite data. Regardless, even with his deliberate distortion the graph shows the models as being pretty much spot on.


Sure when you keep expanding the margin of error....But using that tactic could be considered deceitful...If the predictions fail just expand the margin of error.....
Quoting 505. yoboi:



First rule of thumb you don't place equipment on top of levee where water is breaching....Now if you can suspend pumps over in a secure manner different story....If that levee goes to full breach in that picture those pumps are washed away....Principle common sense goes a long way.....go ahead stick with the manual and not think for yourself??


In a battle of physics vs. common sense, physics wins every time. You put the pumps where they can perform optimally. At best, the pumps will prevent a breach. At worst, the pumps buy some valuable time before it fails. If the levee fails, a couple of washed away pumps are the least of your concerns and most likely become just a tiny amount of the damage total.
521. jpsb
Quoting 217. indianrivguy:



of course.. and then every subsequent year that doesn't set a new record will be global cooling...


Satellite data shows no significant warming for something like 18+ years. No new records according to the satellites that monitor Earth's temperature. It will be interesting to see which data is more correct, globally. I tend to believe the satellite data since satellites measure vastly more area, much more often then (why all the adjustments?) ground temperature reading.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
817 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LAZ034>036-046>048-MSZ068-271415-
WEST BATON ROUGE-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-EAST FELICIANA-EAST BATON
ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
817 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST BATON ROUGE...
WESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE...WEST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...WESTERN EAST
FELICIANA...POINTE COUPEE PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN WILKINSON COUNTIES..
.

AT 817 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE OPHELIA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE TO NEAR
PALMETTO TO NEAR LEONVILLE TO NEAR CANKTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...NEW
ROADS...JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...ADDIS...BRUSLY...LIVONIA...
MARINGOUIN...WOODVILLE...FORDOCHE...ROSEDALE...GR OSSE TETE...
MORGANZA...LOTTIE...FORT ADAMS AND RAMAH.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS.
Quoting 521. jpsb:



Satellite data shows no significant warming for something like 18+ years. No new records according to the satellites that monitor Earth's temperature. It will be interesting to see which data is more correct, globally. I tend to believe the satellite data since satellites measure vastly more area, much more often then (why all the adjustments?) ground temperature reading.


Oh look, someone doesn't understand that Satellite data is the most heavily adjusted and doesn't measure surface temps. Thanks for playing:

"Satellites do not measure temperature. They measure radiances in various wavelength bands, which must then be mathematically inverted to obtain indirect inferences of temperature. The resulting temperature profiles depend on details of the methods that are used to obtain temperatures from radiances. As a result, different groups that have analyzed the satellite data have produced differing temperature datasets. Among these are the UAH dataset prepared at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the RSS dataset prepared by Remote Sensing Systems. The satellite series is not fully homogeneous – it is constructed from a series of satellites with similar but not identical instrumentation. The sensors deteriorate over time, and corrections are necessary for orbital drift and decay. Particularly large differences between reconstructed temperature series occur at the few times when there is little temporal overlap between successive satellites, making intercalibration difficult"

This is hilarious, all the misrepresentations for the science deniers are just too easy to catch and debunk. ALL measurements are adjusted, ALL measurements are proxy measurements. Temperature from satellites is some of the most adjusted and corrected data because of the methods by which it is measured. Also, 18 years would be hard to get any statistically significant trend due to the small sample. This is basic statistical knowledge...yet here you are saying things again with no basis in reality.
Quoting 518. jamesrainier:

CBSDFW retweeted
Jennifer Lindgren @JLindgrenCBS11 · 6m 6 minutes ago

NEW: Ellis Co. Engineer and dam builder say dam at Lake Padera will NOT break. Integrity is secure.

That's good news. Looks like that catchment area is set to get another 2+ inches over the next 5 days.



Good Morning Class!

The marine layer in all the way to the mountains in Sooo Cal........humidity 100% at my place.......should burn off this morning to clear skies.


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 27 May 6:52 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 27 May 6:40 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
27 May 6:40 am PDT 50 50 100 NW 5G08 OK
Quoting 521. jpsb:



Satellite data shows no significant warming for something like 18+ years. No new records according to the satellites that monitor Earth's temperature. It will be interesting to see which data is more correct, globally. I tend to believe the satellite data since satellites measure vastly more area, much more often then (why all the adjustments?) ground temperature reading.

So the fairies lowered the freezing point of water without telling us.
its going to take something really big
on a global scale to end whatever
debate regarding climate change

we wait till it comes to past
and its coming
Quoting 519. yoboi:



Sure when you keep expanding the margin of error....But using that tactic could be considered deceitful...If the predictions fail just expand the margin of error.....


Focus yoboi.

You posted a deeply flawed graph, which even a casual perusal of the data it claims to represent shows that it is wrong. You posted this flawed graph as evidence to support your claim, even though it actually doesn't. Now you've jumped to a non-sequitor about artificially expanding error margins, without any supporting evidence, and is contradicted by just about every known publication on model error analysis.

The only thing your convincing anyone of is that you really have no idea what you're talking about. You post links to flawed graphs you can't analyze correctly or understand. You post links to articles with deeply flawed analyses and math so bad in some cases that even an sixth grader can point it out. You pull quotes out of context to deliberately misrepresent research, or in a number of cases just copy-paste said quote from some other site.You post links to actual peer reviewed research articles and make unsubstantiated claims about what the research says, when in fact the research claims the exact opposite.

And whenever anyone points things like this out to you, you fall back on conspiracy theories, emotional appeals, political diatribes, Al Gore, or anything else in order to change the subject. Why? Because anything beyond using other sites of bad science and garbage as a crutch, you're simply out of your depth when it comes to discussing any actual science.

I've asked this before, and I will ask it again. Show me the physics.
529. yoboi
Quoting 520. Xyrus2000:



In a battle of physics vs. common sense, physics wins every time. You put the pumps where they can perform optimally. At best, the pumps will prevent a breach. At worst, the pumps buy some valuable time before it fails. If the levee fails, a couple of washed away pumps are the least of your concerns and most likely become just a tiny amount of the damage total.


When the pumps are washed downstream not doing much good.....But hey I have seen many people
Quoting 520. Xyrus2000:



In a battle of physics vs. common sense, physics wins every time. You put the pumps where they can perform optimally. At best, the pumps will prevent a breach. At worst, the pumps buy some valuable time before it fails. If the levee fails, a couple of washed away pumps are the least of your concerns and most likely become just a tiny amount of the damage total.


With physics the levee has the best chance to breach where the water is going over the top....Let's see do I want to place the pumps where I can pump 24 hrs a day if needed or do I take a chance and place the pumps where I can pump a few gallons more per minute and risk being blown out and operation shut within the hour...Yeah I will apply physics showing me to place the pumps in a secure section of the levee....
http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/local/2015/05/27/m idlothian-dam-expected-to-break-at-any-moment/2800 0473/

Officials had been trying to slow down the process for several days, as rain added more water to the small lake. They were draining it from the bottom of the dam Monday morning, as soil was seen eroding and water was spilling over the top.
Quoting 521. jpsb:



Satellite data shows no significant warming for something like 18+ years. No new records according to the satellites that monitor Earth's temperature. It will be interesting to see which data is more correct, globally. I tend to believe the satellite data since satellites measure vastly more area, much more often then (why all the adjustments?) ground temperature reading.

It is not unusual for temperature data to show no statistically significant warming over such a short time period. Further, lack of statistical significance doesn't mean there hasn't been warming. There has. It should further be noted that satellite data are for the lower troposphere, not the surface.

And lastly, the "18 years" is a cherry picked period, designed to show the least possible amount of warming, as is demonstrated in the following graphic:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
859 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 857 AM CDT...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM BREAK REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED THE
POSSIBLE FAILURE OF PADERA LAKE DAM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MIDLOTHIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
Quoting 528. Xyrus2000:



Focus yoboi.

You posted a deeply flawed graph, which even a casual perusal of the data it claims to represent shows that it is wrong. You posted this flawed graph as evidence to support your claim, even though it actually doesn't. Now you've jumped to a non-sequitor about artificially expanding error margins, without any supporting evidence, and is contradicted by just about every known publication on model error analysis.

The only thing your convincing anyone of is that you really have no idea what you're talking about. You post links to flawed graphs you can't analyze correctly or understand. You post links to articles with deeply flawed analyses and math so bad in some cases that even an sixth grader can point it out. You pull quotes out of context to deliberately misrepresent research, or in a number of cases just copy-paste said quote from some other site.You post links to actual peer reviewed research articles and make unsubstantiated claims about what the research says, when in fact the research claims the exact opposite.

And whenever anyone points things like this out to you, you fall back on conspiracy theories, emotional appeals, political diatribes, Al Gore, or anything else in order to change the subject. Why? Because anything beyond using other sites of bad science and garbage as a crutch, you're simply out of your depth when it comes to discussing any actual science.

I've asked this before, and I will ask it again. Show me the physics.

Wish I could have "plussed" that more than once.
535. yoboi
Quoting 523. Naga5000:



Oh look, someone doesn't understand that Satellite data is the most heavily adjusted and doesn't measure surface temps. Thanks for playing:

"Satellites do not measure temperature. They measure radiances in various wavelength bands, which must then be mathematically inverted to obtain indirect inferences of temperature. The resulting temperature profiles depend on details of the methods that are used to obtain temperatures from radiances. As a result, different groups that have analyzed the satellite data have produced differing temperature datasets. Among these are the UAH dataset prepared at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the RSS dataset prepared by Remote Sensing Systems. The satellite series is not fully homogeneous – it is constructed from a series of satellites with similar but not identical instrumentation. The sensors deteriorate over time, and corrections are necessary for orbital drift and decay. Particularly large differences between reconstructed temperature series occur at the few times when there is little temporal overlap between successive satellites, making intercalibration difficult"

This is hilarious, all the misrepresentations for the science deniers are just too easy to catch and debunk. ALL measurements are adjusted, ALL measurements are proxy measurements. Temperature from satellites is some of the most adjusted and corrected data because of the methods by which it is measured. Also, 18 years would be hard to get any statistically significant trend due to the small sample. This is basic statistical knowledge...yet here you are saying things again with no basis in reality.


Are you saying satellite is not the best way to measure temps??
Quoting 535. yoboi:



Are you saying satellite is not the best way to measure temps??

I don't know if he is saying that, but I certainly will. The difficulties involved in obtaining good, consistent temperature data from satellites are considerable with many, many adjustments that have to be made. Even if all that manages to get done correctly (and I don't think it has), we are still left with the fact that satellites don't measure surface temperature.
Quoting 527. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its going to take something really big
on a global scale to end whatever
debate regarding climate change

we wait till it comes to past
and its coming


Unfortunately that is true as many have been programmed for the "big" event (including all of the natural disaster movies) rather than to look at the more subtle changes over time. The entire Arctic pole splitting-melting apart over the course of a year or a few Cat 6 or 7 storms would probably grab peoples attention.................................
Quoting 521. jpsb:



Satellite data shows no significant warming for something like 18+ years. No new records according to the satellites that monitor Earth's temperature. It will be interesting to see which data is more correct, globally. I tend to believe the satellite data since satellites measure vastly more area, much more often then (why all the adjustments?) ground temperature reading.


When I read comments like this, it makes me wonder if the posters are just lazy or actually lack the ability to Google and understand what they read.

Here's a whole wiki page on satellite temperature: Link

Satellite don't measure surface temperatures. They never have and never will. The Earth's atmosphere prevents any direct surface temperature measurements from orbit.

Satellites infer broad swaths of vertical atmospheric temperature from microwave radiance. The potential sources for error when adjusting the data to get temperatures are numerous, including differences between sounding instruments. And as recent papers have shown, using an incorrect or flawed adjustment method can yield very different results, hence why UAH's data set doesn't match other data sets (the paper showed that when the method was corrected, it fell in line with other temperature data sets).

Satellites also only cover the region of -70 to 70 latitude with any sort of reliability.

There is no such thing as a satellite surface temperature data set. Your getting an average over the troposphere, or at best the lower 6km to 8km of the troposphere. That's one reason why comparing satellite to surface measurements is comparing apples to oranges.
the pictures of the flooding in Houston are so awful...highways turned into lakes and rivers..homes washed away, debris everywhere from the flood waters...omg those folks are going to need a lot of help..and...More storms and rain coming again today
pssssst,

Notice the pump placement at the 17th ST, Canal Breach, post K in 05'

Knowledge is a gift found by learning.

Tofu anyone?




541. yoboi
Quoting 536. Misanthroptimist:


I don't know if he is saying that, but I certainly will. The difficulties involved in obtaining good, consistent temperature data from satellites are considerable with many, many adjustments that have to be made. Even if all that manages to get done correctly (and I don't think it has), we are still left with the fact that satellites don't measure surface temperature.


I will accept that...So how do we measure ice??
Your already seeing BIG effects from the Warmer Atmosphere, a more Humid water laden atmosphere.

The future is now.

Welcome to the Anthropocene.

Anyone checks the India Heat wave Death totals today.

Here's a note, they well past 1100.

Makes Fla seem cool.

And that last pains me to no end.

Xyrus2000, I have neither your gift with words or your ability to debunk deniers/trolls. It's a pleasure to read your posts.
Quoting 541. yoboi:



I will accept that...So how do we measure ice??


You have the google bro, get back to us when you werk on dat Skill.

We dont do yer Homework, and your not from Louisiana as yer ISP say's otherwise too.

: P
545. Ed22
Quoting 512. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Heard a great post on NPR this morning on the way to work; "Most people tend to gravitate to information and facts which support their own beliefs"............ Open Your Minds.....................

On the weather front, the big picture for the Atlantic and eastern E-Pac; lots of moisture out there along the ITCZ on both sides:


I think something is going to come out of the abundance of moisture, somewhere down the road...
Quoting 538. Xyrus2000:



When I read comments like this, it makes me wonder if the posters are just lazy or actually lack the ability to Google and understand what they read.

Here's a whole wiki page on satellite temperature: Link

Satellite don't measure surface temperatures. They never have and never will. The Earth's atmosphere prevents any direct surface temperature measurements from orbit.

Satellites infer broad swaths of vertical atmospheric temperature from microwave radiance. The potential sources for error when adjusting the data to get temperatures are numerous, including differences between sounding instruments. And as recent papers have shown, using an incorrect or flawed adjustment method can yield very different results, hence why UAH's data set doesn't match other data sets (the paper showed that when the method was corrected, it fell in line with other temperature data sets).

Satellites also only cover the region of -70 to 70 latitude with any sort of reliability.

There is no such thing as a satellite surface temperature data set. Your getting an average over the troposphere, or at best the lower 6km to 8km of the troposphere. That's one reason why comparing satellite to surface measurements is comparing apples to oranges.


This is not about knowledge and science, this is about ideology--- usually the Free Market, regulation and taxes.
If one confronts reality, all theses come into question.
Quoting 541. yoboi:



I will accept that...So how do we measure ice??


Pay attention:

"Satellite images of sea ice are made from observations of microwave energy radiated from the Earth’s surface. Because ocean water emits microwaves differently than sea ice, ice “looks” different to the satellite sensor. The observations are processed into digital picture elements, or pixels. Each pixel represents a square surface area on Earth, often 25 kilometers by 25 kilometers. Scientists estimate the amount of sea ice in each pixel." Link

Trying to confuse temperature measurements with measurements of sea ice is not going to get you anywhere. The entire method is different.
Everybody keeps talking about surface temperatures. Isn't almost all the heat going into the oceans?

And I wonder the effect some late summer when there isn't any more Arctic ice to put energy into melting.
Quoting 544. Patrap:



You have the google bro, get back to us when you werk on dat Skill.

We dont do yer Homework, and your not from Louisiana as yer ISP say's otherwise too.

: P

He claimed to be from California before, too.
550. yoboi
Quoting 547. Naga5000:



Pay attention:

"Satellite images of sea ice are made from observations of microwave energy radiated from the Earth’s surface. Because ocean water emits microwaves differently than sea ice, ice “looks” different to the satellite sensor. The observations are processed into digital picture elements, or pixels. Each pixel represents a square surface area on Earth, often 25 kilometers by 25 kilometers. Scientists estimate the amount of sea ice in each pixel." Link

Trying to confuse temperature measurements with measurements of sea ice is not going to get you anywhere. The entire method is different.


Both methods are estimating....But the one measuring ice is the only correct one....ok got it....
Quoting 504. StormTrackerScott:

No better way to jump start the Wet Season across FL with a Gulf system sitting west of FL. If this is how we are starting off the season across FL then we are in for a long haul the next 5 months. With ENSO strengthening any system that forms will be close to the US hence the focus of the rains being concentrated across the SE US the next few months.

GFS week 2 precip anomalies







I've been hoping some sort of weak, sloppy system would roll into SW Florida and dump some rain; my little garden in the "dry slot" west of the Caloosahatchee River is still thirsty! Most of the models so far this month have tried to create/send W. Carib systems across Cuba and into the Bahamas, or form things in the Bahamas and send them north or east.

BTW, saw the most amazing little cell pass north of here yesterday evening; its backside had a small but very active swirl, and the swirl motion was clockwise, not counterclockwise! No funnel ever appeared, though (thank goodness), but the swirl persisted for nearly 15 minutes!
Quoting 548. jamesrainier:

Everybody keeps talking about surface temperatures. Isn't almost all the heat going into the oceans?

And I wonder the effect some late summer when there isn't any more Arctic ice to put energy into melting.


Yes you are correct, about 90% of the energy goes into the ocean. However, surface temperature gets more "radio play" because the land warms faster (temperature wise) than the oceans (which is why you often see land warming measured in temperature and ocean warming measured in Oceanic Heat Content), and we predominantly live on the land. But to get a full view, land and ocean needs to be included in any serious measurement.


Interesting ULL in the Atlantic.
Quoting 548. jamesrainier:

Everybody keeps talking about surface temperatures. Isn't almost all the heat going into the oceans?

And I wonder the effect some late summer when there isn't any more Arctic ice to put energy into melting.

Expect amplification as the sun shines into that water for a half year continously. Small angle insulation so much will reflect, but not so much if there's a little breeze. Et cetera.
Quoting 550. yoboi:



Both methods are estimating....But the one measuring ice is the only correct one....ok got it....


No, I don't think you "got" any of it judging by your statement. I would suggest reading the methodology, I'm tired of doing your homework for you.
Quoting 544. Patrap:



You have the google bro, get back to us when you werk on dat Skill.

We dont do yer Homework, and your not from Louisiana as yer ISP say's otherwise too.

: P
Good morning Pat. Hope Memorial Day was a good one. What is ISP.?
Quoting 545. Ed22:

I think something is going to come out of the abundance of moisture, somewhere down the road...


We will have to see. SAL is currently down across the Atlantic (as compared to this time last year) but that will fluctuate between now and the peak of the season. The last two Atlantic seasons were marked by a very dry almost non-existent Atlantic ITCZ-wave train with struggling tropical storms. However, EL Nino shear may keep the season in check regardless of the moisture content down the road. A good sign of a healthy ITCZ is a storm reaching hurricane strength before reaching the Caribbean and we have not seen that happen in several years now.




A flame baiter isnt interested in learning, as he would have to drop the matches first.

: )
Quoting 541. yoboi:



I will accept that...So how do we measure ice??

In the case of sea ice the satellites are photographing the ice (at least in the case of area and extent). Then various organizations count the ice-covered pixels in each photograph and calculate area and/or extent. So, the satellites aren't measuring anything.
Hawaii will likely be a a target again..

Quoting 550. yoboi:



Both methods are estimating....But the one measuring ice is the only correct one....ok got it....

No, I'm afraid you don't. No adjustments have to be made to the ice data, though I wouldn't take any one day's area or extent as entirely accurate.
Wow; that low in the Atlantic on the radar as it works it's way down to the surface:


564. jpsb
Quoting 535. yoboi:



Are you saying satellite is not the best way to measure temps??

Since there are not a lot of weather stations taking reading on our oceans or in remote land locations I think satellite data is more accurate, globally, then (adjusted) ground data. I also note that globally sea ice is above "normal" nor is Greenland is losing ice mass (due to warming) which serves to reenforce my trust in satellite data as opposed to the "warmest year ever", every year with ground data.







565. yoboi
Quoting 562. Misanthroptimist:


No, I'm afraid you don't. No adjustments have to be made to the ice data, though I wouldn't take any one day's area or extent as entirely accurate.


So volume is not part of "ice data"??
Quoting 564. jpsb:


Since there are not a lot of weather stations taking reading on our oceans or in remote land locations I think satellite data is more accurate, globally, then (adjusted) ground data. I also note that globally sea ice is above "normal" nor is Greenland is losing ice mass (due to warming) which serves to reenforce my trust in satellite data as opposed to the "warmest year ever", every year with ground data.

The adjustments made to surface measurements are child's play compared to the adjustments that have to be made to the satellite data. And again, it must be stressed that satellites don't measure surface temperature.

As far as global sea ice is concerned, I'll skip the responses that you have already been given, and give you something new to consider. That Antarctic sea ice that you all have so much riding on may not even be there; if it is there, then it may have been there all along, meaning no upward trend in Antarctic sea ice. If that's the case, then global sea ice is below normal. ;-)
Quoting 564. jpsb:


Since there are not a lot of weather stations taking reading on our oceans or in remote land locations I think satellite data is more accurate, globally, then (adjusted) ground data. I also note that globally sea ice is above "normal" nor is Greenland is losing ice mass (due to warming) which serves to reenforce my trust in satellite data as opposed to the "warmest year ever", every year with ground data.











Tell us again how much you dont know about Sea Temps being collected?

How We Observe the Ocean

Surface Drifting Buoys



The Global Drifter Program (GDP) is comprised of an array of about 1250 drifting buoys that provide operational, near-real time surface velocity, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure observations for numerical weather forecasting, research, and in-situ calibration/verification of satellite observations. The array provides the largest area coverage of all components of the global ocean observing system for surface temperature and currents. The GDP is managed in close cooperation between the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami, Florida, and the branch of the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine Ecosystems and Climate (CIMEC) located at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California.


: P








Flat sea, no SAL. Now I'm waiting for the rain. We need it!
Quoting 565. yoboi:



So volume is not part of "ice data"??

Volume is modeled, not measured as area and extent are.
The derp is exceedingly Strong today.

: }
Quoting 570. Patrap:

The derp is exceedingly Strong today.

: }

Not strong, just abundant.
I have a challenge for you Yoboi, and by extension, for jpsb. I present this challenge with respect and without any intent to criticize. However, for as long as I can remember, you have denied global warming as at least partially human-created, but never provide,legitimate sources to support your claim. So, in the name of intellectual discourse, could either of you please find an article that supports your view in legitimate, peer-reviewed, scientific journals? I would also request that the author of whatever article you find NOT have any connection to any type of politically-motivated think tank, so their credentials must be academic in nature. Without this kind of evidence, people with even a bare minimum of critical thinking skills might find it easier to respect your argument, even if they might still disagree! Until then, your posts will continue to come under well-deserved criticism, not necessarily for your stance, but for the shallow and superficial support of it as well as your attacks on the scientific process!
573. yoboi
Quoting 569. Misanthroptimist:


Volume is modeled, not measured as area and extent are.


I always thought PIOMAS blended satellite-observed sea ice concentrations into model calculations...
No matter how much relevant, sourced, and accurate information is posted to refute the repetitive posts hawking intentionally misleading or incorrect 'information', it will continue to be re-posted. Again, and again and again. Spreading disinformation seems to be the MO here.
.
Quoting 574. LAbonbon:

No matter how much relevant, sourced, and accurate information is posted to refute the repetitive posts hawking intentionally misleading or incorrect 'information', it will continue to be re-posted. Again, and again and again. Spreading disinformation seems to be the MO here.

I have this sort of fantasy that one day the moderators will crack down on such repetition. So far, no soap.
Quoting 574. LAbonbon:

No matter how much relevant, sourced, and accurate information is posted to refute the repetitive posts hawking intentionally misleading or incorrect 'information', it will continue to be re-posted. Again, and again and again. Spreading disinformation seems to be the MO here.

Absolutely. At a certain point, I think it becomes irresponsible for a serious weather/climate news outlet to allow it.
Quoting 537. weathermanwannabe:



Unfortunately that is true as many have been programmed for the "big" event (including all of the natural disaster movies) rather than to look at the more subtle changes over time. The entire Arctic pole splitting-melting apart over the course of a year or a few Cat 6 or 7 storms would probably grab peoples attention.................................

we have already seen lots
it don't matter they refuse too see
so therefore it will have too be something
never seen before

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Conditions are favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms that may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.

Thunderstorms are expected to begin this afternoon and persist into early evening.

Very strong wind gusts can damage buildings, down trees and blow large vehicles off the road. Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.ontario.ca/beprepared.
Quoting 573. yoboi:



I always thought PIOMAS blended satellite-observed sea ice concentrations into model calculations...

Those observations are two dimensional, more or less. (That's simplifying a bit, but the complications aren't really relevant.)
hmm NW Carib development moves either over Cuba or Yucatan Channel then either in the GOM or NW Bahamas then Florida the across SEUS Coast
also some show additional development will an ULL that currently N of PR some show some sort of merger between the two
06




00





Quoting 564. jpsb:


Since there are not a lot of weather stations taking reading on our oceans or in remote land locations I think satellite data is more accurate, globally, then (adjusted) ground data. I also note that globally sea ice is above "normal" nor is Greenland is losing ice mass (due to warming) which serves to reenforce my trust in satellite data as opposed to the "warmest year ever", every year with ground data.










Greenland isn't losing Ice Mass? Care to source that? I'll show you mine:


Fig. 3.3. Monthly mass anomalies (in Gigatonnes, Gt) for the Greenland ice sheet since April 2002 estimated from GRACE measurements. The anomalies are expressed as departures from the 2002-2014 mean value for each month. For reference, orange asterisks denote June values (or May for those years when June is missing)

Also, global sea ice is a contextless measurement, I know you love cryosphere today as you have repeatedly stated that they are a trusted source for you, I give you their take on using global sea ice to make stupid claims: Link


Quoting 574. LAbonbon:

No matter how much relevant, sourced, and accurate information is posted to refute the repetitive posts hawking intentionally misleading or incorrect 'information', it will continue to be re-posted. Again, and again and again. Spreading disinformation seems to be the MO here.


As long as they have an audience and get attention, it won't stop.
Quoting 576. Misanthroptimist:


I have this sort of fantasy that one day the moderators will crack down on such repetition. So far, no soap.
well we could take em out but then it will be o I get removed for a different opinion dance
Quoting 557. hydrus:
Good morning Pat. Hope Memorial Day was a good one. What is ISP.?
Good morning, Hydrus. ISP=Internet Service Provider. This is information that a normal member should not be able to access. If he claims to know this information I'd like to know how he got it.
just move along make the post move along let the forces that be decide what stays what goes
anyway it is believed that the cause or one of the causes of this development is the tropical wave currently along 50W
Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well we could take em out but then it will be o I get removed for a different opinion dance
What?
I have a friend at the ESL by LSU Earth Scan Lab. He helped Nan Walker on the GOM Eddies research.

He has been modeling the GOM at 2060 AD estimate Hi end SST runs with Hurricanes.

The numbers are well, "interesting". The work is not published, but I can assure you this, imagine a Warm Core Loop eddie with a Cat 5 moving over it heading NW toward the Coastline.

A surface and depth of the eddy is a avg 80F and you see the result.

Then take the same run, deepen the eddy, and increase it to 84 F.


U see the er, problematic result clearly, without animation.

The Lower mb rate and fall is startling
Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well we could take em out but then it will be o I get removed for a different opinion dance


Good thing facts aren't opinions. At some point, you guys are going to have to do something. Maybe we'll just wait for our friends to make the same false statements using the exact same, previously debunked graphs for the 1,009th time. :)
Quoting 585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just move along make the post move along let the forces that be decide what stays what goes


Will the forces punctuate for us too ?

: )
Quoting 584. sar2401:

Good morning, Hydrus. ISP=Internet Service Provider. This is information that a normal member should not be able to access. If he claims to know this information I'd like to know how he got it.
all ya got to do is visit my blog page and I know everything about you as per

Weekly Stats Report: 18 May - 24 May 2015
Project: BLOG SITE
URL: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KEEPEROFTHEGATE/c omment.html?entrynum=147#comment_0

most on here have some sort of visitor recording embedded into there blog page a counter or what have you it reports on that visitor location isp speed type of internet and internet provider
Quoting 590. Patrap:



Will the forces punctuate for us too ?

: )
nope and why cause ya keep asking and besides it won't be the same if I did
Quoting 582. tampabaymatt:



As long as they have an audience and get attention, it won't stop.

Most of them care only about the audience, not the attention imho.
WTH is a "normal member" ?

Wait, nevermind, I just got a really bad mental image.

Lets move on shall wees?
Synopsis

CONUS Wet'

Atlantic Dry'

Ignore works well for me. I see mostly weather comments and little AGW discussion.
Quoting 577. SeriouslySushi:


Absolutely. At a certain point, I think it becomes irresponsible for a serious weather/climate news outlet to allow it.

Its a weather blog not a Chinese newspaper/magazine
Todd Kimberlain@ToddKimberlain
Week 2 GFS showing monster westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific #tropics #climate #elnino #ElNino


Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well we could take em out but then it will be o I get removed for a different opinion dance
The taking out would have to apply to both sides. Then you would not get that argument.
Ignore is so simple and easy. Commenters who don't use ignore really want to continue the discussion.


Oklahoma Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding (DR-4222)
Incident period: May 5, 2015 to May 10, 2015
Major Disaster Declaration declared on May 26, 2015


May 26, 2015

News Release

President Declares Disaster for Oklahoma

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that federal disaster aid has been made available to the state of Oklahoma and ordered federal aid to supplement state and local recovery efforts in the area affected by severe storms, tornadoes, straight-line winds, and flooding during the period of May 5-10, 2015The President's action makes federal funding available to affected individuals in Cleveland, Grady, and Oklahoma counties.
Anyone can embed a visitor counter/ISP identifier if the site allows it.
Quoting 591. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all ya got to do is visit my blog page and I know everything about you as per

Weekly Stats Report: 18 May - 24 May 2015
Project: BLOG SITE
URL: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KEEPEROFTHEGATE/c omment.html?entrynum=147#comment_0

most on here have some sort of visitor recording embedded into there blog page a counter or what have you it reports on that visitor location isp speed type of internet and internet provider
And that's a good reason I don't visit any member blog pages here.
Quoting 572. ProphetessofDoom:

I have a challenge for you Yoboi, and by extension, for jpsb. I present this challenge with respect and without any intent to criticize. However, for as long as I can remember, you have denied global warming as at least partially human-created, but never provide,legitimate sources to support your claim. So, in the name of intellectual discourse, could either of you please find an article that supports your view in legitimate, peer-reviewed, scientific journals? I would also request that the author of whatever article you find NOT have any connection to any type of politically-motivated think tank, so their credentials must be academic in nature. Without this kind of evidence, people with even a bare minimum of critical thinking skills might find it easier to respect your argument, even if they might still disagree! Until then, your posts will continue to come under well-deserved criticism, not necessarily for your stance, but for the shallow and superficial support of it as well as your attacks on the scientific process!

This article is about Dr. Philip Lloyd who was an IPCC author. Dont attack the source, it's just reporting what his paper states

"“This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study."
well...back from my self imposed suspension yesterday.........and what do i see...more of the same......well...that is...until i've decided to use the ignore feature.........yep.........after all these years i've added yipyyieaye......helpfornone....and jr......i love you jr...but.....i've got to iggy you.......

why...because the debate over agw is over.......it's time to quit letting jack donkeys......utilize energy...resources and the spotlight.....most dinosaurs didn't change...and as such...they're gone...so to will these......i choose to utilize my energy...my resources...and my time....on making life better...making a difference albeit small...but still......making a difference
Quoting 550. yoboi:



Both methods are estimating....But the one measuring ice is the only correct one....ok got it....

Tell me, yoboi, when has "if you don't like the message, kill the messenger", or, in your case, imply the competence and integrity of the messenger is suspect, ever been a successful strategy? If your doctor gives you a diagnosis that is not to your liking, do react in a similar way? From what I have seen, which has been quite enough, thank you very much, you have as much standing to comment on the validity and interpretation of weather and climate data as you do on a battery of medical tests. As for the sources of your (mis)information, just because Mike Huckabee says that the elixir he's holding is good for what ails you doesn't make it so.
608. jpsb
Quoting 567. Patrap:




Tell us again how much you dont know about Sea Temps being collected?

How We Observe the Ocean

Surface Drifting Buoys



The Global Drifter Program (GDP) is comprised of an array of about 1250 drifting buoys that provide operational, near-real time surface velocity, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure observations for numerical weather forecasting, research, and in-situ calibration/verification of satellite observations. The array provides the largest area coverage of all components of the global ocean observing system for surface temperature and currents. The GDP is managed in close cooperation between the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami, Florida, and the branch of the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine Ecosystems and Climate (CIMEC) located at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California.


: P

Within a few miles of my location (San Leon) current temps vary from 69 to 75. A thousand or even a few thousand floating buoys for 3/4s of the Earth's surface is inadequate to accurately determine ocean surface temperatures. I certainly support the attempt and no doubt valuable info is obtained but there are thousand of square kilometers going unmeasured, just like in Siberia and northern Canada. Only satellites cover those parts of the globe 24/7. 80n to 80s IIRC.
Quoting 603. Alagirl:
Anyone can embed a visitor counter/ISP identifier if the site allows it.
You can only do that for your blog, not this blog. I also imagine you know there are ways to spoof an ISP for most counters you get off the net.
If this occurs as the GFS suggest then this could possibly be a historic WWB for the Central/E-Pac

Eric Blake@EricBlake12
@ToddKimberlain It would be historic-- you just don't get 2-3 SD across the entire Central and eastern Pac (but it is day 13 :)]

Quoting 601. Barefootontherocks:

Commenters who don't use ignore really want to continue the discussion.
False. Commenters who don't use ignore are smart enough to realize that just because we plug our own ears so we no longer have to hear internet idiocy doesn't mean that the idiocy stops. The first step to getting out of this mess in which we've put ourselves is acknowledging that we are indeed in a mess. But because some are spending enormous amounts of time (and vast sums of money) to ensure such acknowledgement never takes root, we must counter that deceit and fraud with fact and logic.
Quoting 610. StormTrackerScott:

If this occurs as the GFS suggest this would be a historic WWB for the Central/E-Pac





Jus like last years RECORD Heat Globally.

and this year's outpacing of that 5 months straight as well,

I agree.
Quoting 603. Alagirl:

Anyone can embed a visitor counter/ISP identifier if the site allows it.
yep I can even do it too blogs I don't own it will track all vistors of whatever blog I choose to track its legal and there is nothing anyone can do about it
and if ya have some msdos experience you can check out a whole lot more about any site on the world wide web
from number of hits it gets and from what countries to providers all the way down too the computers ident numbers every computer has a id and it sends out that id everytime it checks a site or goes somewhere on the internet
Quoting 608. jpsb:


Within a few miles of my location (San Leon) current temps vary from 69 to 75. A thousand or even a few thousand floating buoys for 3/4s of the Earth's surface is inadequate to accurately determine ocean surface temperatures. I certainly support the attempt and no doubt valuable info is obtained but there are thousand of square kilometers going unmeasured, just like in Siberia and northern Canada. Only satellites cover those parts of the globe 24/7. 80n to 80s IIRC.


I suggest a 3 day refresher on smoothing.

Not the drink though.

Im fairly versed in orbital mechanic's and the limits of declination too, but thanks.
Quoting 605. sanflee76:

This article is about Dr. Philip Lloyd who was an IPCC author. Dont attack the source, it's just reporting what his paper states

"“This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study."
Do you have a link to where you got that quote?
Quoting 609. sar2401:

You can only do that for your blog, not this blog. I also imagine you know there are ways to spoof an ISP for most counters you get off the net.
of coarse but most don't do that unless there hiding something
Quoting 612. Patrap:




Jus like last years RECORD Heat Globally.

and this year's outpacing of that 5 months straight as well,

I agree.


That is one mean looking wind anomaly for the E-Pac. I suspect were well on our way to seeing something tropically go either in the E-Pac or Gulf next week. Going to be interesting to see if this forecast verifies.
Quoting 606. ricderr:

well...back from my self imposed suspension yesterday.........and what do i see...more of the same......well...that is...until i've decided to use the ignore feature.........yep.........after all these years i've added yipyyieaye......helpfornone....and jr......i love you jr...but.....i've got to iggy you.......

why...because the debate over agw is over.......it's time to quit letting jack donkeys......utilize energy...resources and the spotlight.....most dinosaurs didn't change...and as such...they're gone...so to will these......i choose to utilize my energy...my resources...and my time....on making life better...making a difference albeit small...but still......making a difference
Greetings Ric..Same here. I do my part. It is the human spirit, and the good in people that help the most. Greed hurts, generosity helps. Respect for the Earth and others goes far and deep, making it a better place for future generations. When one fights for the common good, it builds a solid foundation for others who believe in good, and also to keep things moving in a better direction..
Quoting 613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep I can even do it too blogs I don't own it will track all vistors of whatever blog I choose to track its legal and there is nothing anyone can do about it
and if ya have some msdos experience you can check out a whole lot more about any site on the world wide web
from number of hits it gets and from what countries to providers all the way down too the computers ident numbers every computer has a id and it sends out that id everytime it checks a site or goes somewhere on the internet
Really? You're saying the security here is so poor it will allow such embedding by anyone on Dr. Masters' blog? Do you have some actual evidence of that?
High resolution short range guidance has been unbelievably bad since yesterday. How is this for verification?







This is a good bookmark as well.

Global Maps from GHCN v3 Data
You may generate a surface temperature anomaly or trend map using the following form. An explanation of the input elements is appended below.


The number at the top right-hand corner is an estimate for the global mean of the ... Smoothing radius: Distance over which a station influences regional ...

: )
622. NNYer
Quoting 597. Barefootontherocks:

Ignore works well for me. I see mostly weather comments and little AGW discussion.


Yeah, seriously, stop feeding the trolls. If you all ignore them, it's just background noise. Responding to them just gets them going and it certainly takes up a lot of space on this blog. Furthermore, it's the same story every day with them, and unfortunately, the same valid arguments against them are getting repetitious as well. They are NEVER going to change. Period.
Quoting 617. StormTrackerScott:



That is one mean looking wind anomaly for the E-Pac. I suspect were well on our way to seeing something tropically go either in the E-Pac or Gulf next week. Going to be interesting to see if this forecast verifies.


Nola Roux is due to deliver Pups round June 2..so I'd prep for impact.

Last litter came in the middle of Isaac's landfall here.

E-Pac is in Beast Mode! Beginning to spread toward the Gulf too!

Quoting 619. sar2401:

Really? You're saying the security here is so poor it will allow such embedding by anyone on Dr. Masters' blog? Do you have some actual evidence of that?
it has nothing to do with security this is useable by all if they have the knowledge as pat would say google be your friend look it up there are all kinds of pay sites you can go that will get u whatever u are looking for information wise regarding web sites traffic and hits within the means of the law
Quoting 605. sanflee76:


This article is about Dr. Philip Lloyd who was an IPCC author. Dont attack the source, it's just reporting what his paper states

"“This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study."
Dr. Lloyd is a chemical/nuclear engineer, and a long-time employee of, and shill for, the fossil fuel industry. And while he was indeed an "IPCC author" (on the 2005 report), it should be noted that he was just one of 21 lead authors (working under two coordinating lead authors) who helped put together a chapter on Underground Geological Storage. That is, he contributed nothing about climate to the report--because that's not where his expertise lies. To cite his denialist ramblings is, his record would show, misleading.
If the one who brings's derp, serve it as truth.

It will be de-derped accordingly.

Wu Main Law # 1

628. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 38 sHace 39 segundos Ver traducción
NOAA releases their Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast (70% chance of below-normal season):
sar should really make a comment in my entry in the directory, and maybe check the map loco in it like 7 minutes later.

He would be enlightened greatly.


Time for the Young and the restless.

Im a big Victor fan ya know.


p,s, One doesnt have to make a comment in the entry, only viewing it shows your locale or Govt installation, as they come up as UNITED STATES.

: )

Location Latest Time Location Views
Updates every 5 minutes
Metairie, LA, United States Today @ 10:57 am 579
VA, United States Today @ 10:48 am 3
New Orleans, LA, United States Today @ 10:25 am 6,550
United States Today @ 9:11 am 4,345
Little Rock, AR, United States Today @ 8:23 am 86
Wilmington, NC, United States Today @ 1:24 am 194
Beijing, China Yesterday @ 11:42 pm 473
Mountain View, CA, United States Yesterday @ 9:37 pm 1,588
Lake Forest, CA, United States Yesterday @ 9:28 pm 12
San Francisco, CA, United States Yesterday @ 5:51 pm 272
Canada Yesterday @ 1:19 pm 56
Fredericksburg, VA, United States Yesterday @ 11:00 am 27
Ashburn, VA, United States Yesterday @ 9:23 am 34
Norway Yesterday @ 8:58 am 10
France Yesterday @ 4:56 am 76
Perry, GA, United States 25 May 2015 12
Tallahassee, FL, United States 25 May 2015 154
Spring Hill, FL, United States 25 May 2015 87
Nanaimo, BC, Canada 25 May 2015 663
Scarborough, ON, Canada 25 May 2015 117
Hollywood, MD, United States 25 May 2015 3
Framingham, MA, United States 25 May 2015 18
Surrey, BC, Canada 25 May 2015 43
Methuen, MA, United States 25 May 2015 161
Sierra Vista, AZ, United States 25 May 2015 9

Quoting 591. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

all ya got to do is visit my blog page and I know everything about you as per

Weekly Stats Report: 18 May - 24 May 2015
Project: BLOG SITE
URL: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KEEPEROFTHEGATE/c omment.html?entrynum=147#comment_0

most on here have some sort of visitor recording embedded into there blog page a counter or what have you it reports on that visitor location isp speed type of internet and internet provider
Neat stuff. I would like to find out for myself where some members are blogging from. There were a couple here saying that they were from a specific place, but I do not believe they were being honest. To those who do lie on here, you are only as good as your word, and eventually the lies will be found out..There are some really intelligent people on this blog.
Quoting 615. sar2401:

Do you have a link to where you got that quote?

Yes, here:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/22/former-un-lead- author-global-warming-caused-by-natural-variations -in-climate/; and like i said don't attack the source, its just reporting what Lloyd said in his paper

He also says that some of the warming is due to man but unable to say how much
Good Morning all. GFS is showing a strong westerly wind in the pacific in the short term outlook thus antitrade winds which support El Nino. I understand we are in El Nino or El Nino conditions but what is really remarkable to me is the incredibly warm water in the Eastern pacific just North of the "El Nino" zone. I mean its scalding hot temps there exceed 90 degrees. If we ever get that heat energy in the GOM or the NW Caribbean Sea HOLY SMOKES!! I don't know if this E-PAC pool of cauldron like water is due to a warming planet or just a natural cycle, but if it is climate change WOW
Quoting 585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just move along make the post move along let the forces that be decide what stays what goes
The forces that be seem to be quite happy to allow the same relatively few people to post the same claptrap day after day after day. It's not like this is some attack by unknown trolls.
Quoting 605. sanflee76:


This article is about Dr. Philip Lloyd who was an IPCC author. Dont attack the source, it's just reporting what his paper states

"“This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study."

Some information about the journal in which that paper was published: " Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, and Compendex.[3] According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2012 impact factor of 0.319, ranking it 90th out of 93 journals in the category "Environmental Studies"."

I wouldn't take a paper from an extremely poorly ranked journal that purports to overturn an accepted scientific fact very seriously. That's especially true since that fact is supported by many lines of evidence while the paper you cite relies solely on ice cores --again in which the paper is at odds with much established work in the field.

636. jpsb
Quoting 578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

.



Canada ping Southern Ontario Vineyards Damaged By Brutal Cold Snap

Quoting 631. sanflee76:


Yes, here:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/22/former-un-lead- author-global-warming-caused-by-natural-variations -in-climate/; and like i said don't attack the source, its just reporting what Lloyd said in his paper

Sometimes "attacking", or pointing out the credibility, or lack thereof, of the source is perfectly valid. Recently a scientist had to issue a statement correcting TDC's interpretation of his study because they got it so wrong.
Anything you'd want to show about AGW science should be available through more reliable and credible sources. If it's true, of course.
Quoting 605. sanflee76:


This article is about Dr. Philip Lloyd who was an IPCC author. Dont attack the source, it's just reporting what his paper states

"“This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study."


Poor methodology, why would you use single points (ice cores) from 3 different locations, detrend the data, subtract the differences, and then use this poorly manufactured, unreliable mess to then make statements in reference to current global temperature anomalies? Oh right, because the paper is bad and by published you mean "published" in Energy and Environment, a journal with known biases, little impact, and not taken seriously in academia. From Wiki:

Abstracting and indexing[edit]
The journal is abstracted and indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index,[4] Scopus,[5] EBSCO databases,[2][6] Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, and Compendex.[3] According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2012 impact factor of 0.319, ranking it 90th out of 93 journals in the category "Environmental Studies".[7]

Criticism[edit]
According to a 2011 article in The Guardian, Gavin Schmidt and Roger A. Pielke, Jr. said that E&E has had low standards of peer review and little impact.[10] In addition, Ralph Keeling criticized a paper in the journal which claimed that CO2 levels were above 400 ppm in 1825, 1857 and 1942, writing in a letter to the editor, "Is it really the intent of E&E to provide a forum for laundering pseudo-science?"[10][11] A 2005 article in Environmental Science & Technology stated that "scientific claims made in Energy & Environment have little credibility among scientists."[12] Boehmer-Christiansen acknowledged that the journal's "impact rating has remained too low for many ambitious young researchers to use it", but blamed this on "the negative attitudes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)/Climatic Research Unit people."[13]

Climate change skepticism[edit]
When asked about the publication in the Spring of 2003 of a revised version of the paper at the center of the Soon and Baliunas controversy, Boehmer-Christiansen said, "I'm following my political agenda -- a bit, anyway. But isn't that the right of the editor?"[14]

Part of the journal's official mission statement reads: "E&E has consistently striven to publish many ‘voices’ and to challenge conventional wisdoms. Perhaps more so than other European energy journal, the editor has made E&E a forum for more sceptical analyses of ‘climate change’ and the advocated solutions".

The paper is both methodologically poor and published in a known biased, hack journal with little to no impact in the world of actual science.

Sanflee, why is it every time you post something climate related, it seems to be drudged from the depths of science denial? (rhetorical question).
Quoting 608. jpsb:


Within a few miles of my location (San Leon) current temps vary from 69 to 75. A thousand or even a few thousand floating buoys for 3/4s of the Earth's surface is inadequate to accurately determine ocean surface temperatures. I certainly support the attempt and no doubt valuable info is obtained but there are thousand of square kilometers going unmeasured, just like in Siberia and northern Canada. Only satellites cover those parts of the globe 24/7. 80n to 80s IIRC.

Now, if they could only tell us about surface temperatures. lol

Oh, and if they didn't require pages of adjustments.
unless there hiding something


Yeah, their privacy. I find this quite disturbing that people are WANTING to track other bloggers locations. It's not about hiding something, it's about protecting one's livelihood. Some of us who have been here awhile have all seen in the past where bloggers have posted public information on this page about other bloggers to use maliciously. It was mentioned in the below comment to Yoboi in almost the same content of "I know where you live"

Let's hope it stays in the personal blogs and not embedded here in Dr. Master's blog.

Quoting 631. sanflee76:

Yes, here:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/22/former-un-lead- author-global-warming-caused-by-natural-variations -in-climate/; and like i said don't attack the source, its just reporting what Lloyd said in his paper
This is a link that works. If you just copy and paste links here the software screws it up every time. If you did any kind of search about Dr. Phillip Lloyd, you would have found things like this that should have made you wonder if the messenger was the problem as well as the message.
Quoting 638. Naga5000:



Poor methodology, why would you use single points (ice cores) from 3 different locations, detrend the data, subtract the differences, and then use this poorly manufactured, unreliable mess to then make statements in reference to current global temperature anomalies? Oh right, because the paper is bad and by published you mean "published" in Energy and Environment, a journal with known biases, little impact, and not taken seriously in academia. From Wiki:

Abstracting and indexing[edit]
The journal is abstracted and indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index,[4] Scopus,[5] EBSCO databases,[2][6] Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, and Compendex.[3] According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2012 impact factor of 0.319, ranking it 90th out of 93 journals in the category "Environmental Studies".[7]

Criticism[edit]
According to a 2011 article in The Guardian, Gavin Schmidt and Roger A. Pielke, Jr. said that E&E has had low standards of peer review and little impact.[10] In addition, Ralph Keeling criticized a paper in the journal which claimed that CO2 levels were above 400 ppm in 1825, 1857 and 1942, writing in a letter to the editor, "Is it really the intent of E&E to provide a forum for laundering pseudo-science?"[10][11] A 2005 article in Environmental Science & Technology stated that "scientific claims made in Energy & Environment have little credibility among scientists."[12] Boehmer-Christiansen acknowledged that the journal's "impact rating has remained too low for many ambitious young researchers to use it", but blamed this on "the negative attitudes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)/Climatic Research Unit people."[13]

Climate change skepticism[edit]
When asked about the publication in the Spring of 2003 of a revised version of the paper at the center of the Soon and Baliunas controversy, Boehmer-Christiansen said, "I'm following my political agenda -- a bit, anyway. But isn't that the right of the editor?"[14]

Part of the journal's official mission statement reads: "E&E has consistently striven to publish many ‘voices’ and to challenge conventional wisdoms. Perhaps more so than other European energy journal, the editor has made E&E a forum for more sceptical analyses of ‘climate change’ and the advocated solutions".

The paper is both methodologically poor and published in a known biased, hack journal with little to no impact in the world of actual science.

Sanflee, why is it every time you post something climate related, it seems to be drudged from the depths of science denial? (rhetorical question).


what attracted me to the article was that the study was done by Dr Philip Lloyd who was one of the authors of the IPCC. I don't know much about him. Did he switch sides or something?
Here is Dr. Lloyds's trick. 3 single LOCAL data points over 8,000 years. The difference between the highest and lowest temperature point .98C plus or minus .27C. He then compares that to the difference between the highest and lowest GLOBAL AVERAGE over 100 years. See the problem? This kind of analysis makes science look bad. It's a flat out abortion of statistics.
Quoting 636. jpsb:



Canada ping Southern Ontario Vineyards Damaged By Brutal Cold Snap



So a grape killing cold snap is noteable to you. A people killing heatwave? Not so much, I guess. This reminds me of Anthony Watts, who, for a meteorologist, has very little interest in any sort of weather, unless it's cold.
Quoting 641. sar2401:

This is a link that works. If you just copy and paste links here the software screws it up every time. If you did any kind of search about Dr. Phillip Lloyd, you would have found things like this that should hae made you wonder if the messenger was the problem as well as the message.


I guess that i will have to look into Dr. Lloyd then
Noaa predicts a below average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season:

6-11 named storms.
3-6 hurricanes.
0-2 major hurricanes.

In their report, they cite el nino lasting through the entire year of 2015, and normal Atlantic sst's.
Quoting 630. hydrus:

Neat stuff. I would like to find out for myself where some members are blogging from. There were a couple here saying that they were from a specific place, but I do not believe they were being honest. To those who do lie on here, you are only as good as your word, and eventually the lies will be found out..There are some really intelligent people on this blog.


start here great site simple and easy freestuff or paystuff

Link
Quoting 642. sanflee76:


what attracted me to the article was that the study was done by Dr Philip Lloyd who was one of the authors of the IPCC. I don't know much about him. Did he switch sides or something?
He's a petrochemical engineer, not a climate scientist. If you read the information at the link I gave you you'll see his claim to being an IPCC "author" is highly inflated.
Quoting 643. Naga5000:

Here is Dr. Lloyds's trick. 3 single LOCAL data points over 8,000 years. The difference between the highest and lowest temperature point .98C plus or minus .27C. He then compares that to the difference between the highest and lowest GLOBAL AVERAGE over 100 years. See the problem? This kind of analysis makes science look bad. It's a flat out abortion of statistics.


Why would Dr Lloyd do this then. Im confused. If he was a climate scientist and supported AGW, why would he publish a study with evidence to the contrary?
Quoting 642. sanflee76:



what attracted me to the article was that the study was done by Dr Philip Lloyd who was one of the authors of the IPCC. I don't know much about him. Did he switch sides or something?


He was an author on ENERGY not CLIMATE SCIENCE. He is not a climate scientists he is a nuclear physicist. The IPCC does not create science is aggregates the current work and summarizes it for policy makers. Convenient that all those articles leave out the IPCC report he actually co-authored, huh?
Quoting 628. JRRP:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 38 sHace 39 segundos Ver traducción
NOAA releases their Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast (70% chance of below-normal season):
What a huge surprise!
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


start here great site simple and easy freestuff or paystuff

Link
Once again, that will not work for tracking anyone on Dr. Masters blog. You need administrator rights to use scripting here.
Quoting 610. StormTrackerScott:

If this occurs as the GFS suggest then this could possibly be a historic WWB for the Central/E-Pac

Eric Blake@EricBlake12
@ToddKimberlain It would be historic-- you just don't get 2-3 SD across the entire Central and eastern Pac (but it is day 13 :)]


Very far away and could change.
Quoting 649. sanflee76:



Why would Dr Lloyd do this then. Im confused. If he was a climate scientist and supported AGW, why would he publish a study with evidence to the contrary?


He has no expertise in climate science and he is not a climate scientist. I do not know his previous positions on AGW.
No surprise per traditional El Nino climatology; however, most seasons regardless of the enso cycle will produce a surprise or two from which we can learn.


For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 - November 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. 

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
Quoting 649. sanflee76:


Why would Dr Lloyd do this then. Im confused. If he was a climate scientist and supported AGW, why would he publish a study with evidence to the contrary?
He's not a climate scientist, he doesn't support the science behind AGW, and his "study" is self-published in a dubious journal.

I'm getting the feeling you're not really confused.
657. yoboi
Quoting 638. Naga5000:



Poor methodology, why would you use single points (ice cores) from 3 different locations, detrend the data, subtract the differences, and then use this poorly manufactured, unreliable mess to then make statements in reference to current global temperature anomalies? Oh right, because the paper is bad and by published you mean "published" in Energy and Environment, a journal with known biases, little impact, and not taken seriously in academia. From Wiki:

Abstracting and indexing[edit]
The journal is abstracted and indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index,[4] Scopus,[5] EBSCO databases,[2][6] Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, and Compendex.[3] According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2012 impact factor of 0.319, ranking it 90th out of 93 journals in the category "Environmental Studies".[7]

Criticism[edit]
According to a 2011 article in The Guardian, Gavin Schmidt and Roger A. Pielke, Jr. said that E&E has had low standards of peer review and little impact.[10] In addition, Ralph Keeling criticized a paper in the journal which claimed that CO2 levels were above 400 ppm in 1825, 1857 and 1942, writing in a letter to the editor, "Is it really the intent of E&E to provide a forum for laundering pseudo-science?"[10][11] A 2005 article in Environmental Science & Technology stated that "scientific claims made in Energy & Environment have little credibility among scientists."[12] Boehmer-Christiansen acknowledged that the journal's "impact rating has remained too low for many ambitious young researchers to use it", but blamed this on "the negative attitudes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)/Climatic Research Unit people."[13]

Climate change skepticism[edit]
When asked about the publication in the Spring of 2003 of a revised version of the paper at the center of the Soon and Baliunas controversy, Boehmer-Christiansen said, "I'm following my political agenda -- a bit, anyway. But isn't that the right of the editor?"[14]

Part of the journal's official mission statement reads: "E&E has consistently striven to publish many ‘voices’ and to challenge conventional wisdoms. Perhaps more so than other European energy journal, the editor has made E&E a forum for more sceptical analyses of ‘climate change’ and the advocated solutions".

The paper is both methodologically poor and published in a known biased, hack journal with little to no impact in the world of actual science.

Sanflee, why is it every time you post something climate related, it seems to be drudged from the depths of science denial? (rhetorical question).


And retrieving science from a cartoonist is a better method....Got it....
Quoting 623. Patrap:



Nola Roux is due to deliver Pups round June 2..so I'd prep for impact.

Last litter came in the middle of Isaac's landfall here.


I remember that.. I think you posted some pics.
659. JRRP
660. JRRP
Quoting 651. Gearsts:

What a huge surprise!

lol
661. jpsb
Quoting 625. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it has nothing to do with security this is useable by all if they have the knowledge as pat would say google be your friend look it up there are all kinds of pay sites you can go that will get u whatever u are looking for information wise regarding web sites traffic and hits within the means of the law

If you run your own server it is very easy to get info on anyone that views content hosted on your server.

here is an example while testing my server, my local host IP is 127.0.0.1 had the server been in operational mode not testing the IPs recorded would have been real world IP addresses.

127.0.0.1 - - [31/Dec/2014:07:38:29 -0600] "GET /jaw/controller/viewItem?itemId=6597 HTTP/1.1" 200 1540
127.0.0.1 - - [31/Dec/2014:07:38:29 -0600] "GET /jaw/class.css HTTP/1.1" 404 994
127.0.0.1 - - [31/Dec/2014:07:38:29 -0600] "GET /jaw/class.css HTTP/1.1" 404 994
127.0.0.1 - - [06/Jan/2015:07:18:14 -0600] "GET /onlinestore/mixplayM.png HTTP/1.1" 404 222
127.0.0.1 - - [15/Jan/2015:11:32:18 -0600] "GET /onlinestore/mixplayM.png HTTP/1.1" 404 222
192.168.1.1 - - [24/Jan/2015:08:58:47 -0600] "GET / HTTP/1.1" 200 2832
127.0.0.1 - - [25/Jan/2015:09:39:20 -0600] "GET /onlinestore/mixplayM.png HTTP/1.1" 404 222



And here is how easy it is to set a cookie, from my server user login code

else if(LOGIN_ACTION.equals(actionName))
{
String name = request.getParameter("name");
String password = request.getParameter("password");
if(debug) System.out.println(name + "Is trying to login");

user = api.login(name, password);
Cookie cookie = new Cookie("RCUID", user);
cookie.setMaxAge(31536000);

response.addCookie(cookie);

request.setAttribute("user", user);
destinationPage = "/loggedin.jsp";
}

Quoting 657. yoboi:



And retrieving science from a cartoonist is a better method....Got it....

Again, no you don't...unless you can provide evidence of your claim. Can you?
Floater is up on the potential surface low in the Atlantic (per RAMMB):





Quoting 645. sanflee76:


I guess that i will have to look into Dr. Lloyd then
That would be a good idea. The Daily Caller is generally not a site where you will find unbiased scientific information.
Quoting 663. weathermanwannabe:
Floater is up on the potential surface low in the Atlantic (per RAMMB):


I wonder why? That low has been there for the at least the past four days.
666. jpsb
Quoting 652. sar2401:

Once again, that will not work for tracking anyone on Dr. Masters blog. You need administrator rights to use scripting here.


If you are as big as say Google, you have content on just about every (popular) site all you then need to do to track someone is analyze your server logs to see where "they" (or everyone) has been. In effect you can track them without using tracking software (which pretty much does not work anyway).
Inbound trouble

2015 rolls on'

Like a Bad Boy

Quoting 650. Naga5000:



He was an author on ENERGY not CLIMATE SCIENCE. He is not a climate scientists he is a nuclear physicist. The IPCC does not create science is aggregates the current work and summarizes it for policy makers. Convenient that all those articles leave out the IPCC report he actually co-authored, huh?

Reading up on him (sar's link), he does not have a degree in nuclear physics. He has a BSc and a PhD in chemical engineering. Looks like he attended MIT for nuclear engineering, but no degree was conferred.

Quoting 665. sar2401:

I wonder why? That low has been there for the at least the past four days.
It's been slowly working it's way down to the surface.  It was an upper level feature two days ago, some mid-level features yesterday, and now trying to work down today.  No prior model support so it would be a surprise if it did work down and develop tropical characteristics.  However, dry air inflow, and marginal sst's will be an issue.  Interesting to note however, that sheer is low on the Eastern side of the disturbance:




  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
542 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-2812 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
542 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SOME MINOR TO MODERAT6E FLOODING OF STREETS...LOW LYING
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
Quoting 668. LAbonbon:


Reading up on him (sar's link), he does not have a degree in nuclear physics. He has a BSc and a PhD in chemical engineering. Looks like he attended MIT for nuclear engineering, but no degree was conferred.


Ha, thanks for the clarification. :)
Velocity Azimuth Wind Display Profile

Looks like maybe were seeing some Gravity Wave rippling in those tops.

Quoting 652. sar2401:

Once again, that will not work for tracking anyone on Dr. Masters blog. You need administrator rights to use scripting here.
I know you have an old handle by date, and I don't know how much you frequented blog comments here before a couple years ago, so I'll mention this. A few years back, 09, 010 or 011 maybe, a commenter embedded hidden trackers that would catch IP addresses into blog comments at Doc M's. Of course, the tracker could be seen on quote but no one paid much attention to the person's comments. As I recall, one of our most astute troll sniffing dogs quoted a comment and exposed the nefarious IP address seeker!

There are such people at wu, some of whom use multiple operating systems, browsers,  foreign modems, and handles to disguise their real presence, possibly because their IP is a known banned (forever for a good reason) handle, possibly because they hack and destroy. Who knows? Point is, "safe," even in this blog does not exist, (add to end of sentence) so, if your goal is hiding your IP address, you might want to try a remote modem.

(This comment box is fubarred. They must be working on it or something. Hope that's all it is.)
Quoting 674. weathermanwannabe:





ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
As I recall, one of our more astute troll sniffing dogs, quoted a comment and exposed the nefarious IP address seeker!

(walks onstage and bows)
models starting to agree on systems in the W Atlantic/NW Carib

the ULL system will eventually dissipate NE of NW Bahamas SE of Bermuda

tropical wave enters Caribbean and starts to develop within the NW Caribbean (note there might be some very slight interactions with the ULL/Surface trof feature to its NE) system moves N across Cuba passing near to Florida and up the SEUS coast
the headlines are starting to pick up on this possible storm

"Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Next Week From The Gulf Of Mexico & Northwestern Caribbean To Around The Bahamas."
Guidance is "PING"



Mother recommends a modem shutdown and disconnect asap.

See you on the other side .




683. Ed22
Quoting 663. weathermanwannabe:

Floater is up on the potential surface low in the Atlantic (per RAMMB):






interesting thing happening...
Time to Duck Pat.....
I don't know much about how computers/servers/software/the internet works, in fact I probably know less than many (if not most) people on this blog. So I can't delve into the 'how to' aspect of things. That being said...

The idea that WU has my ISP doesn't really bother me; I understand it's their site, and the information they collect and use is described at length in their privacy statement. But the idea of other site users obtaining personally identifiable information about other users is discomforting.

WU has a privacy statement, yet how do users collecting personal information use what they gather?
I believe that the data shows that AGW is real, is occurring and will continue to occur so long as CO2 levels continue to rise. However, I find it disheartening that there are a handful of self-appointed guardians of the facts, who seem to think they have a direct pipeline to Knowledge itself, and who seem to think the only way to convince someone who has an opposing viewpoint is to continually label them as trolls, idiots, liars, etc, or most commonly, present them with condescending commentary about how their basic education level or intellectual skills are lacking. Does anyone sincerely believe that they are going to convince anyone here that their viewpoint is wrong by belittling them? Will any of this brow beating, chest puffing "I'm right and you're a troll" mentality really make a difference to what is going on in the world? No, of course not. The constant condescencion just turns people off.

I am curious about that handful here who constantly berate those who think differently than them, whether they approach all other opposing viewpoints in the same way. Those who have differing viewpoints from yours on religion, politics or other aspects of science.... are they all trolls, idiots and liars too? Or do you just have firm opinions and special insight to one aspect of the natural world? Have you ever successfully converted someone to your viewpoint by telling them how stupid they are? History is littered with sad stories of those who decided that opposing viewpoints or other differences must be silenced or eradicated. How did that work out?

While I am personally convinced that the data shows that AGW is real, I have no reason to doubt the veracity of those who think otherwise and I will defend their right to voice those opposing viewpoints and will not automatically label or belittle them because they disagree with me. There are a lot of people with viewpoints about other aspects of life and the world that I disagree with, but I do not automatically think that those opposing viewpoints come from disingenuous liars.

Dr. Masters has a blog and he is kind enough to allow comments. While it is generally a tropical weather blog, he has also made it pretty clear that he is a firm believer that the science shows that AGW is real. However, I have never seen a blog post in which he felt it necessary to label contrary thinking as idiotic, stupid, trollish or anything else. Maybe I missed that. I hope not.



689. yoboi
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY
REPRESENT QLCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
TRUTH...BUT STILL LACKING IN BOTH TIMING AND SCOPE. THIS LACK OF
A DECENT MODEL TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS WITH RESULTED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FORECASTER EDITING. INITIALLY WAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STILL DEPARTING QLCS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST TX DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...FORMING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THEIR CURRENT RELATIVELY
COOL READINGS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO IN THE MID 80S.
stay alert next week folks............................................. ...................
TORNADO WARNING
TXC031-271730-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0039.150527T1647Z-150527T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1146 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TWIN
SISTERS...OR NEAR BLANCO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST EAST OF U.S.
281 NEAR LITTLE BLANCO ROAD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLANCO AND PAYTON AROUND 1230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
into south Carolina per 12Z gfs..but remember..this can change,everyone should prepare this week per NHC..as this is the hurricane preparedness week anyway.
Having a Map Loco Widget in ones personal blog is not collecting information on users, it only shows views locales, in cities.

Don't believe everything you read on the net, Esp in a blog.


This is not Godlikeproductions.derp
12Z GFS for next week.............................................. .................................................. ....
latest 12Z GFS shows
ULL and Sfc trof moving W and for a short time develops a weak 1014mb low which quickly opens back to a sfc trof

sfc trof then moves WNW-NW eventually dissipating somewhere near 30N

ULL stays only shortly with the Sfc trof eventually it drifts N then NE then opening up to an upper trof somewhere near 35N 55W speeding off E wards

separately

tropical wave moves into Carib
starts to develop in NW Carib developing a low moving N out of the Carib passing through NW Bahamas just off Florida E coast and landfall near Georga/SC boarder
696. JRRP
Quoting 636. jpsb:



Canada ping Southern Ontario Vineyards Damaged By Brutal Cold Snap





This happened in the U.S. upper midwest in 2012, esp Michigan. After an extreme outlier warm March caused vines to break dormancy five weeks early, they became very vulnerable to normal April cold and a succession of freezes destroyed both the primary, and then a few weeks later, the secondary buds of grapevines. This was the worst frost disaster for the fruit industry in Michigan (not just grapes were affected) in at least fifty years. As with most fruit frost disasters in spring it was set up by unusual early season warmth making the vines and trees vulnerable to subsequent seasonably normal chill.

2012 was a record smashing warm spring in most of the U.S especially the upper midwest.


Quoting 690. LargoFl:

stay alert next week folks............................................. ...................


Another storm to the east of FL. I wonder how much rain we would get from that here in inland E. Central FL? Probably not much if any. What ever happened to the Gulf of Mexico being a breeding ground for storms?
Quoting 698. HurrMichaelOrl:



Another storm to the east of FL. I wonder how much rain we would get from that here in inland E. Central FL? Probably not much if any. What ever happened to the Gulf of Mexico being a breeding ground for storms?
well about next wens..florida gets a lot of rain from central to south florida..but things change and we all need to stay a lil alert next week
see..next wenesday IF all this verifies ok................................................ ....
tropical storm wind speed begins at 45mph?............................................
Quoting 687. NickyTesla:

I believe that the data shows that AGW is real, is occurring and will continue to occur so long as CO2 levels continue to rise. However, I find it disheartening that there are a handful of self-appointed guardians of the facts, who seem to think they have a direct pipeline to Knowledge itself, and who seem to think the only way to convince someone who has an opposing viewpoint is to continually label them as trolls, idiots, liars, etc, or most commonly, present them with condescending commentary about how their basic education level or intellectual skills are lacking. Does anyone sincerely believe that they are going to convince anyone here that their viewpoint is wrong by belittling them? Will any of this brow beating, chest puffing "I'm right and you're a troll" mentality really make a difference to what is going on in the world? No, of course not. The constant condescencion just turns people off.

I am curious about that handful here who constantly berate those who think differently than them, whether they approach all other opposing viewpoints in the same way. Those who have differing viewpoints from yours on religion, politics or other aspects of science.... are they all trolls, idiots and liars too? Or do you just have firm opinions and special insight to one aspect of the natural world? Have you ever successfully converted someone to your viewpoint by telling them how stupid they are? History is littered with sad stories of those who decided that opposing viewpoints or other differences must be silenced or eradicated. How did that work out?

While I am personally convinced that the data shows that AGW is real, I have no reason to doubt the veracity of those who think otherwise and I will defend their right to voice those opposing viewpoints and will not automatically label or belittle them because they disagree with me. There are a lot of people with viewpoints about other aspects of life and the world that I disagree with, but I do not automatically think that those opposing viewpoints come from disingenuous liars.

Dr. Masters has a blog and he is kind enough to allow comments. While it is generally a tropical weather blog, he has also made it pretty clear that he is a firm believer that the science shows that AGW is real. However, I have never seen a blog post in which he felt it necessary to label contrary thinking as idiotic, stupid, trollish or anything else. Maybe I missed that. I hope not.






I call it like I see it. Agree, don't agree, I don't really care. My job isn't to change anyone's mind, I'm here to make sure misinformation doesn't get disseminated because I like an educated populace on important issues. My methods for doing so are well researched in the social sciences. I firmly believe shaming and labeling is both needed and integral to combating cognitive dissonance. And I certainly don't feel bad if you object. On that note, I fail to see how the response from others would be any different if people began claiming day in and day out that Hurricanes were a liberal conspiracy, Tornadoes aren't real, they only exist to keep scientists funded, thunderstorms and lightening were myths, and posted absurd graphs and charts, took data out of context, and consistently derailed conversation. I find it disheartening that you seem to not be able to recognize a troll when you see one, that you are afraid to call people out for repeated failures of comprehension and basic science who feel it necessary to engage in a topic they clearly do not understand, and that you may be naive enough to think that everyone here at Dr. Master's is exactly who and what they claim, and that somehow pointing out reality is merely name calling or attempted silencing.

Giving false equivalence to topics where two sides do not exist, allowing others to voice disinformation and misinformation after being corrected and shown where they were wrong previously, and claiming condescension while being condescending aren't very endearing qualities either. I, on the other hand, have never claimed to be anything close to endearing, likable, or here to please your taste in blog comments.

Quoting 693. Patrap:

Having a Map Loco Widget in ones personal blog is not collecting information on users, it only shows views locales, in cities.

Don't believe everything you read on the net, Esp in a blog.


This is not Godlikeproductions.derp

My ignorance on the mechanics of it probably affects my comfort level. While I get the gist of some of the posts below, I don't really get how it works. Post # 666- sort of follow this. Post # 661 - whoosh! right over my head. Post # 676 - I have no interest in hiding my IP address, but the chances of me figuring out how to access a remote modem (or wanting to) is nil...

So if all people get is my city and general location, I'm fine with that, as I've shared my general location on the blog.
Quoting 696. JRRP:




HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST WED MAY 27 2015

...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BEGINNING FRIDAY...

AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF EXTENDED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BETTER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
BEGINNING FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE...SITUATED BETWEEN A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ADVANCING AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MUCH MORE
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...AND THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.

AT PRESENT...THE LEAST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IS A TURN IN THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO A MUCH MORE SHOWERY SCENARIO WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MORE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WHERE
RAIN FALLS. THIS COULD BRING WATER TO NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND GUTS
AND RAISE THE GENERAL LEVEL OF MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
AREA.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MAY
RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING IN SOME LOCAL FLOODING OF
STREAMS...GUTS...LOCAL RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS WHERE LOCAL
WINDS BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SAME AREA FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS
HAPPENING IS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS IN AREAS NORMALLY PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES WHICH WOULD INCLUDE PREPARING PLANS TO
MOVE OR PROTECT PETS...LIVESTOCK...EQUIPMENT AND PERSONAL
BELONGINGS. RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO REVIEW SAFETY PROCEDURES AND
EVACUATION ROUTES FOR THE MUCH DELAYED ONSET OF OUR NORMAL RAIN
AND FLOOD SEASON. THESE PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN PLACE IF AND WHEN
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THOSE THAT LIVE BELOW AREAS THAT HAVE BURNED SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR MUCH SOONER AND WILL BE MUCH FASTER THAN NORMAL
OVER THE SCORCHED AND CLEARED GROUND.

WETTER CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY FLOODING...ARE FORESEEN
THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

$$

SNELL
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 681. wunderkidcayman:

the headlines are starting to pick up on this possible storm

"Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Next Week From The Gulf Of Mexico & Northwestern Caribbean To Around The Bahamas."


Who are you quoting?
Wow..I like to know who from Wilmington, NC at 1:24am this morning was viewing a particular LA blog?

that's pretty late unless it has been manipulated? I'm going to go with copy and paste a city/state, the things people resort to..

Quoting 687. NickyTesla:

I believe that the data shows that AGW is real, is occurring and will continue to occur so long as CO2 levels continue to rise. However, I find it disheartening that there are a handful of self-appointed guardians of the facts, who seem to think they have a direct pipeline to Knowledge itself, and who seem to think the only way to convince someone who has an opposing viewpoint is to continually label them as trolls, idiots, liars, etc, or most commonly, present them with condescending commentary about how their basic education level or intellectual skills are lacking. Does anyone sincerely believe that they are going to convince anyone here that their viewpoint is wrong by belittling them? Will any of this brow beating, chest puffing "I'm right and you're a troll" mentality really make a difference to what is going on in the world? No, of course not. The constant condescencion just turns people off.

I am curious about that handful here who constantly berate those who think differently than them, whether they approach all other opposing viewpoints in the same way. Those who have differing viewpoints from yours on religion, politics or other aspects of science.... are they all trolls, idiots and liars too? Or do you just have firm opinions and special insight to one aspect of the natural world? Have you ever successfully converted someone to your viewpoint by telling them how stupid they are? History is littered with sad stories of those who decided that opposing viewpoints or other differences must be silenced or eradicated. How did that work out?

While I am personally convinced that the data shows that AGW is real, I have no reason to doubt the veracity of those who think otherwise and I will defend their right to voice those opposing viewpoints and will not automatically label or belittle them because they disagree with me. There are a lot of people with viewpoints about other aspects of life and the world that I disagree with, but I do not automatically think that those opposing viewpoints come from disingenuous liars.

Dr. Masters has a blog and he is kind enough to allow comments. While it is generally a tropical weather blog, he has also made it pretty clear that he is a firm believer that the science shows that AGW is real. However, I have never seen a blog post in which he felt it necessary to label contrary thinking as idiotic, stupid, trollish or anything else. Maybe I missed that. I hope not.




I must say, you've erected more strawmen in this one comment than in a hundred high school productions of The Wizard of Oz. ;-)

When leveling accusations, it's been proven to be most helpful for the accuser (in this case, you) to provide actual references and citations to the alleged misdeeds. It requires far more work than just making blanket statements as you have, but it's vastly more helpful for the person who wishes to be taken seriously. With that in mind, then, please respond with both blog and comment numbers where you're convinced you've seen the following:

--Who are the "handful of self-appointed guardians of the facts"?

--Who here seems "to think they have a direct pipeline to Knowledge itself"?

--Who "seem[s] to think the only way to convince someone who has an opposing viewpoint is to continually label them as trolls, idiots, liars, etc, or most commonly, present them with condescending commentary about how their basic education level or intellectual skills are lacking."

--Who believes "that they are going to convince anyone here that their viewpoint is wrong by belittling them?"

--Who are you accusing of "brow beating" and "chest puffing"?

--Who has stated, "I'm right and you're a troll"?

--Who are you accusing of "constant condescencion [sp]"

--Who makes up the "handful here who constantly berate those who think differently than them, whether they approach all other opposing viewpoints in the same way."?

--Who here has said--or even hinted--that they believe "Those who have differing viewpoints from [theirs] on religion, politics or other aspects of science.... are ...all trolls, idiots and liars too?"?

--Who has claimed to have "special insight to one aspect of the natural world?"

--Who has ever tried to "successfully convert someone to [their] viewpoint by telling them how stupid they are?"

--Please share with us some of those "sad stories of those who decided that opposing viewpoints or other differences must be silenced or eradicated." Then tell us how that applies here.

--You claim to "have no reason to doubt the veracity of those who think [AGW is false]"; would you be interested in seeing links to several tens of thousands of peer-reviewed studies that say that "veracity" you see should indeed be questioned?

--Where has anyone here "automatically label[ed] or belittle[d]" those who simply disagree with them?

--You've stated, "There are a lot of people with viewpoints about other aspects of life and the world that I disagree with, but I do not automatically think that those opposing viewpoints come from disingenuous liars." That's excellent, and shows a lot of maturity on your part. Kudos.

--Where have you seen anyone here "label contrary thinking as idiotic, stupid, [or] trollish"?

Thanks. I await your thoughtful and reasoned response.






Quoting 694. LargoFl:

12Z GFS for next week.............................................. .................................................. ....


also 12Z GFS shows possible storm in the BOC 384hr
Quoting 708. ncstorm:

Wow..I like to know who from Wilmington, NC at 1:24am this morning was viewing a particular LA blog?

that's pretty late unless it has been manipulated? I'm going to go with copy and paste a city/state, the things people resort to..




Of course.
Quoting 686. LAbonbon:
I don't know much about how computers/servers/software/the internet works, in fact I probably know less than many (if not most) people on this blog. So I can't delve into the 'how to' aspect of things. That being said...

The idea that WU has my ISP doesn't really bother me; I understand it's their site, and the information they collect and use is described at length in their privacy statement. But the idea of other site users obtaining personally identifiable information about other users is discomforting.

WU has a privacy statement, yet how do users collecting personal information use what they gather?
They can't collect the information from this blog because they don't have the needed permissions to install a script that does the tracking. If you have your own blog here, the owner of the blog is the administrator. As such, they can install any kind of script that they choose. One of the reasons I don't go to any user blogs is the security is so poor here that a user could install a malicious script and do all kinds of things without your knowledge. This is true of any web site but especially true with blogging sites. Someone will post something sensational as click bait and then get to install a script on your computer that can do anything from just identify your ISP to record every keystroke you make. As just one example, this site allows links to sites that have no commercial relationship to WU. There's no checking of these links, and some of them have been to malicious sites. I use several programs to check the scripting of a site before I actually go there to alert me of this kind of thing. It's not as big a problem with weather blogs because most of them get so few visitors that it's not a good harvesting environment. There are stock market blogs that routinely use scripts to track all your activity on the web including banking and trading web sites you use. The really bad ones, most originating from Eastern Europe and Russia, will keylog evey keystroke you make in an attempt to steal passwords. A good antivirus program will give you some protection but these rogue coders can defeat most of them. As far as the TOS goes, it's a joke. As you can see from #11 of the Terms and Conditions, it pretty much up to you to make sure you're not going to be harmed by any content here.

VIRUSES. We will use commercially reasonable efforts to maintain the Site free of viruses and other harmful components. However, as the Site is accessible by third parties, we cannot assume any responsibility for any viruses or other harmful components that may affect your computer equipment or other property as a result of your access to, viewing of or downloading any Data from the Site. We do not warrant that the Site, its servers or any Data downloaded from the Site is free from viruses, bugs or other harmful components.
This comments section sometimes...
Quoting 710. wunderkidcayman:



also 12Z GFS shows possible storm in the BOC 384hr
384hr
Quoting 709. Neapolitan:


So many questions for someone who is in the comment section of the blog so consistently. You might want to read it and you could answer the questions yourself. Or look in a mirror.

What I find most interesting is that although I didn't specifically mention anyone in my comment, the two most notorious culprits were the first to take offense.

You might want to try a different buzzword from time to time. The highly overused and usually inappropriate use of "strawman" is getting a bit old. But thanks for the attempt at condescension.
Quoting 715. NickyTesla:



Well, as much as I think you are a pompous blowhard, at least you are honest about your desire to eradicate any thinking that is not in line with yours. Kudos


Aww. Seems like you also have trouble reading the words I write, maybe try reading again? I wouldn't want to offend your delicate sensibilities, but professing a love for false equivalence and accusing me and others of wanting to eradicate thinking is a silly attack not based in reality. The only thing I want to see eradicated are the trolls which you can seem to distinguish from regular people just trying to learn. This seems directly tied to having trouble reading the words and understanding the context behind statements (like I mentioned in line 1, for reference).

Quoting 716. NickyTesla:



So many questions for someone who is in the comment section of the blog so consistently. You might want to read it and you could answer the questions yourself. Or look in a mirror.

What I find most interesting is that although I didn't specifically mention anyone in my comment, the two most notorious culprits were the first to take offense.

You might want to try a different buzzword from time to time. The highly overused and usually inappropriate use of "strawman" is getting a bit old. But thanks for the attempt at condescension.


Wow, looks like I can count another member of my fan club. "Notorious Culprits"? Oh boy, that made for a real guffaw.

For so much blathering on name calling, and condescension, you sure exhibit a great deal of hypocrisy.
Quoting 716. NickyTesla:



So many questions for someone who is in the comment section of the blog so consistently. You might want to read it and you could answer the questions yourself. Or look in a mirror.

What I find most interesting is that although I didn't specifically mention anyone in my comment, the two most notorious culprits were the first to take offense.

You might want to try a different buzzword from time to time. The highly overused and usually inappropriate use of "strawman" is getting a bit old. But thanks for the attempt at condescension.
And what I find most interesting is that, despite my repeatedly asking for direct links to commenters displaying the behavior of which you've accused them, you've chosen to respond yet again with even more straw men*. That leaves the thinking people here to assume your accusations are, indeed, baseless--and it leaves us to realize that you're not a very worthy opponent so far as climate change discussions go.

Pity.

Have a good day...

* From Wikipedia, Part I: "A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on false representation of an opponent's argument." Sound familiar?

Part II: "To be successful, a straw man argument requires that the audience be ignorant or uninformed of the original argument." Which clearly demonstrates why your, er, "arguments" fail to find any traction here.
719. yoboi
US Republicans have passed a bill through the House (but not the Senate yet) aiming to get back some control over the 7 billion dollar science budget. Previously the National Science Foundation (or NSF) had all the fun in dishing out the dough, but the Republicans have had enough. Their wish list includes cutting social sciences by 55%, climate science by 8%, and putting extra money into biology, computers, engineering and hard sciences. It can’t come soon enough.

Critics are howling that this will politicize science, but it’s just the opposite. Science was already politicized, and thanks in no small part to the NSF itself. This would put control of the funding back slightly closer to the voters. The NSF is almost unaccountable to the taxpayer, and if the NSF had not wasted money on so many one-sided pointless extravaganza’s (like $5m for “climate games”) and tipped so much money into “behavioural” studies, the elected members would not be knocking at their door. The NSF has only itself to blame.

Link
Quoting 719. yoboi:

US Republicans have passed a bill through the House (but not the Senate yet) aiming to get back some control over the 7 billion dollar science budget. Previously the National Science Foundation (or NSF) had all the fun in dishing out the dough, but the Republicans have had enough. Their wish list includes cutting social sciences by 55%, climate science by 8%, and putting extra money into biology, computers, engineering and hard sciences. It can’t come soon enough.

Critics are howling that this will politicize science, but it’s just the opposite. Science was already politicized, and thanks in no small part to the NSF itself. This would put control of the funding back slightly closer to the voters. The NSF is almost unaccountable to the taxpayer, and if the NSF had not wasted money on so many one-sided pointless extravaganza’s (like $5m for “climate games”) and tipped so much money into “behavioural” studies, the elected members would not be knocking at their door. The NSF has only itself to blame.

Link
You're so very desperate for attention that you're posting nonsense from Joanne Nova?

Seriously?

The GOP-stuffed and -led House Science Committee is an anti-science joke. It's a group rife with creationists, climate change denialists, religious fanatics, women-haters, and various other malcontents, nincompoops, and Neanderthals. This group has a vested interest in quashing scientific research. They're either evil or stupid or both.
Quoting 713. 1900hurricane:

This comments section sometimes...



Sometimes? It's most of the time!
Quoting 720. Neapolitan:

You're so very desperate for attention that you're posting nonsense from Joanne Nova?

Seriously?

The GOP-stuffed and -led House Science Committee is an anti-science joke. It's a group rife with creationists, climate change denialists, religious fanatics, women-haters, and various other malcontents, nincompoops, and Neanderthals. This group has a vested interest in quashing scientific research. They're either evil or stupid or both.


Not to mention, it's wrong. The 8% cut isn't to "climate science", it's to the earth sciences, of which "climate science" is just one small part (and last I checked, the Geoscience Directorate was responsible for plenty of 'hard science'). I guess the next link will be to something 'Steven Goddard' opines about; been a while since we cycled through that...
CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather 1h1 hour ago
@EricBlake12 thoughts on where this is going - ie big pic vs 97-98, 82-83 etc? similar?
0 retweets 0 favorites


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 54m54 minutes ago
@capecodweather I now think the odds are best for a strong El Nino, and one of those historic events is possible.
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CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather 43m43 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 expanse of anomalous surface and sub-surface warmth is very impressive. thanks.
Quoting 713. 1900hurricane:

This comments section sometimes...


Is better when the derpster's are shown to be derpster's.

Geaux Tigah's