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Severe Weather Returns to the Plains This Weekend

By: Bob Henson 5:45 PM GMT on May 15, 2015

Supercells may again roam the southern and central Great Plains on Friday and Saturday, as they did last weekend. The trigger comes from a strong, cold upper-level low that’s delivering an unseasonably late dose of rain to parts of drought-plagued southern California. Major League Baseball was halted on Thursday night by the first rain delays in four years at San Diego and the first in 11 years in Los Angeles. Following 0.55” of rain for the month up through Wednesday, San Diego’s Lindbergh Field scored 1.51” in less than two hours on Thursday evening. The calendar-day total of 1.63” was a record for any day in May, and as of 10:00 am PDT Friday, Lindbergh Field has received 2.25” for the month thus far, with rain continuing. In records going back to 1850, the wettest May in San Diego was 2.54” in 1921.

Much like last week’s upper low, the current one will turn sharply northward as it pushes onto the plains on Saturday. The slow eastward progress, coupled with ample low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, will foster multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with cells darting northward as the entire system moves slowly eastward. Flash flooding may again be a threat, especially in places like far north-central Texas and central Oklahoma that are already waterlogged from upwards of 10” of rain over the last two weeks.


Figure 1. A strong upper low at the 300-mb level (about 30,000 feet) high will be centered over Nevada at 0000 GMT Saturday, according to the 0000 GMT Friday run of the GFS model. The low will bring jet-stream-level winds approaching 100 knots (115 mph) across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas on Saturday, boosting the odds of severe weather. Image credit: WunderMap.

Friday’s action should be focused near a developing surface low in far northeast Colorado, sweeping into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. These storms may quickly turn severe by afternoon, but should affect only sparsely populated areas. The late arrival of the upper low may also trigger an isolated storm or two further south along a dry line in far western Kansas. Tornadoes are possible, but the more serious tornado threat will likely be on Saturday, as stronger high-level winds associated with the upper low boost the vertical wind shear across Kansas and Oklahoma. The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center show large slight-risk areas for both Friday and Saturday, with enhanced-risk pockets centered in western Nebraska on Friday and western KS/OK on Saturday.

The ingredients are lining up for a potential major outbreak on Saturday evening, but it’s possible that morning showers and storms could keep the pot from boiling. During some years, spring thunderstorms are strongly “capped” across the Southern Plains by a recurrent layer of very warm air one to two miles above the surface that moves across the region from New Mexico and west Texas. This spring, a strong low-latitude jet stream (likely aided by El Niño) has led to cool and wet conditions across NM and west TX and cut back on the strength of the cap. This allows showers and storms to develop more readily over the Plains, but it also hinders the buildup of explosive instability that can enhance the severity of late-day storms. A large complex of morning thunderstorms cooled the airmass and largely quashed severe weather last Saturday across much of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. It’s possible a similar scenario will play out again this Saturday, as suggested by the 1200 GMT Friday runs of both the GFS and NAM models. If the air mass does manage to warm and destabilize, there could be a significant tornado threat on Saturday afternoon in western KS and OK, heading toward the Oklahoma City and Wichita areas by evening.




New this month: Community-inspired WunderPosters
Many thanks to those of you who submitted images and ideas for the community-inspired phase of our ongoing WunderPoster series. We sifted through hundreds of submissions to make our final selections, and the first two installments created by the WU design team are now online!

Roll clouds sometimes appear this time of year when the cool outflow around large thunderstorm complexes encounters warm, moist air. A sea breeze can serve the same function as the outflow, so roll clouds may also be spotted near coastal areas—but they’re not extremely common, so catching one is a rare treat. This poster was designed by Jerimiah Brown and inspired by a photo submitted by @The_Yarniverous.

Some of the most delicate beauty of wintertime comes to us in the form of hoarfrost. The name is derived from an old English word that alludes to the white hair earned by age. If a night is especially clear, still, and cold, then water vapor may be deposited in crystalline form directly onto twigs, wires, and other surfaces, sometimes branching into intricate structures. An image submitted by @bee.herder served as the inspiration for this poster, which was designed by Lauren Moyer.

Each of the 15 WunderPosters produced to date can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 2. A classic thunderstorm-generated roll cloud rolls across western Kansas near Gem on June 26, 2014. “Not even the panorama did it justice...it was a true 180!” Image credit: wunderphotographer clkngrny.


Figure 3. Pine needles are coated with hoarfrost on February 7, 2014, in Zaporizhia, Ukraine. Image credit: wunderphotographer TanyaMass.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!
Is that a HOOK I see?

Thanks, Bob! I'm assuming the deep southerly lows over the West have something to do with the Nino status, but I'm curious about the slow progression of these lows out into the Plains and further eastward. Is that also linked to El Nino?

If I'm not mistaken we are in or near a MJO pulse, which I guess is amplifying all the wet weather. That wet weather will be slow to move, though, if the lows themselves are snailing or even stalled. We could see some amazing flooding in spots that haven't seen it for awhile, if this overall pattern continues into meteorological summer!
The San Diego and Tijuana rivers are also expected to rise.

Due to the likelihood of intense downpours at times, a flash-flood watch for the coast, the valleys and the mountains was slated to remain in effect until 6 p.m.

“A late-season storm will continue widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today,” according to the weather service. “Locally heavy showers could produce flash flooding as well as mud and debris flows, especially in recently burned areas and on steep terrain.”

The onset of much-needed precipitation in the drought-parched county — the second wet spell in a week — arrived early Thursday afternoon. Several daily precipitation records have since been broken or tied.

The county’s highest-elevation locales may get dustings of snow today, the NWS advised.

Link

Next weekend could bring additional rain.....
Quoting 3. OrchidGrower:

Thanks, Bob! I'm assuming the deep southerly lows over the West have something to do with the Nino status, but I'm curious about the slow progression of these lows out into the Plains and further eastward. Is that also linked to El Nino?
If I'm not mistaken we are in or near a MJO pulse, which I guess is amplifying all the wet weather. That wet weather will be slow to move, though, if the lows themselves are snailing or even stalled. We could see some amazing flooding in spots that haven't seen it for awhile, if this overall pattern continues into meteorological summer!


Good question about the Southwest upper lows. The jet stream typically shifts toward the Northwest US in late spring in tandem with the building of a summer dome of heat over the Southwest. There's no sign of either process happening in a big way for at least the next 10 days. It will be interesting to see how more typical summertime climatology interacts with a substantial El Niño--we haven't seen it happen very much!
Tornado on the ground in Corpus Christi

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
NUECES COUNTY...

AT 1254 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO LOCATED OVER CORPUS CHRISTI NORTH BEACH...OR NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 1254 PM...A TORNADO WAS SPOTTED BY THE WEATHER OBSERVERS AT THE
CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE TORNADO WAS 1 1/2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT...AND MOVING EAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE
COVER NOW!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...CORPUS
CHRISTI DEL MAR EAST CAMPUS...CLARKWOOD...DOWNTOWN CORPUS CHRISTI...
DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL...CORPUS CHRISTI DEL MAR WEST CAMPUS...
COLE PARK AND TULOSO.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC355-151830-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0033.150515T1800Z-150515T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 100 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL...OR OVER CORPUS CHRISTI...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...PORT ARANSAS...DOWNTOWN CORPUS CHRISTI...FLOUR
BLUFF...CORPUS CHRISTI DEL MAR WEST CAMPUS...LA PALMERA MALL...BAY
AREA MEDICAL CENTER...CORPUS CHRISTI COUNTRY CLUB...WALDRON
FIELD...NAVAL AIR STATION CABANISS FIELD...KINGS CROSSING GOLF
COURSE...CORPUS CHRISTI DEL MAR EAST CAMPUS...CHRISTUS SPOHN
HOSPITAL SOUTH...MUSTANG ISLAND STATE PARK...TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
CORPUS CHRISTI...DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL AND COLE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Thanks Bob. Here's the official observation for Corpus Christi last hour, pretty cool.

KCRP 151758Z 30016G45KT 1/2SM +FC +TSRA FG SCT006 BKN018CB OVC030 22/20 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 28045/1752 WSHFT 1738 TORNAD0 B47 2 SE MOV E FRQ LTGICCCCG OHD-ALQDS TS OHD-ALQDS MOV NE P0037 T02170200
Thank you Mr Henson...Really wet out there.
Thanks for the update Bob!

Raining very nice at my place, approaching 1" total for the 2 days. Still have at least a few more hours of rain and then scattered showers before the storm is gone to Arizona. San Diego Lindbergh Field Airport is approaching 2" for the 2 days.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC007-391-151845-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0034.150515T1819Z-150515T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
119 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 118 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER REFUGIO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REFUGIO AND QUINTANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Is El Nino contributing to the wet April and May we are having in central Texas


Severe thunderstorms are expected across the plains Saturday into
Saturday night. At least a few of these may be intense...with the
risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes...particularly across
the Central Plains.


...
A blocking upper ridge appears likely to remain prominent across
parts of British Columbia and the Canadian Yukon territory through
this forecast period...with broad troughing persisting in the
southern branch of the prevailing split flow...from the eastern
Pacific into the plains. While another significant short wave
trough digs into this latter regime across the eastern Pacific...a
significant downstream short wave is forecast to progress
northeastward across The Rockies into the plains by 12z Sunday. The
most substantive smaller scale impulse within this latter feature
still appears to be in the process of migrating inland across
Southern California and northern Baja California...and may not accelerate
northeast of the central and southern rockies until Saturday
afternoon. However...at least a couple of impulses appear likely to
precede this feature...and likely will impact at least much of the
High Plains later today through early Saturday.


Meanwhile...downstream short wave ridging is expected to continue to
build Saturday...generally east of the Mississippi Valley into
Atlantic coastal areas. However...it does appear that a
perturbation migrating around its northeastern periphery may slow
middle-level height rises and perhaps contribute to modest shear along
a remnant frontal zone across parts of southern New York/ northern
Pennsylvania.


In lower-levels east of The Rockies...deep surface troughing
probably will extend through much of the High Plains. The primary
surface cyclone center is expected to redevelop from the northern
High Plains into the Dakotas...along a stalled or slow moving
frontal zone. There should be further moistening on a southerly
return flow through much of the plains...as well as along the
frontal zone from the northern plains into the northeast.
However...steep middle-level lapse rates are expected to mostly remain
confined to the Central Plains...generally due to middle-level cooling
associated with the upper trough...rather than the northeastward
advection of warm elevated mixed layer air.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
126 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

TXC123-177-255-152000-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-150515T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
DEWITT TX-GONZALES TX-KARNES TX-
126 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
DEWITT...SOUTHEASTERN GONZALES AND KARNES COUNTIES...

AT 120 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 20 MILE WIDE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA OF
DEWITT...GONZALES AND KARNES COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALREADY BE
OCCURRING OVER EASTERN KARNES AND WESTERN DEWITT COUNTY...WHERE
RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN OVER SATURATED
SOILS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CUERO...YOAKUM...KENEDY...YORKTOWN...RUNGE...SMIL EY...NORDHEIM...
THOMASTON...CHEAPSIDE...GILLETT...HOCHHEIM...WEST HOFF...DREYER...
COTTON PATCH...CONCRETE...NEW DAVY...CHOATE...TERRYVILLE...GRUENAU
AND EDGAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&
Thanks, Mr. Henson.

In other news, I saw this scroll across my feed and I about died--definitely the hardest I've laughed in a while. :)

Link
Ah, a trick! Admin tells us Jeff Masters has a new blog entry and we come to find out Bob has a new blog entry. I wonder if Jeff is really Bob and is just now coming out like Garth Brooks did all those years ago...hmmmm.

Saw this scroll across my feed and I about died--definitely the hardest I've laughed in a while. :)


florida in the house!!!!
Quoting 21. ricderr:


Saw this scroll across my feed and I about died--definitely the hardest I've laughed in a while. :)


florida in the house!!!!


A little closer to TX.
A little closer to TX.



nahhh...that's an okeechobee cowboy in that video.........
CAZ055-056-152100-
/O.CON.KSGX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-150516T0000Z/
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BIG BEAR CITY...
BIG BEAR LAKE...RUNNING SPRINGS...WRIGHTWOOD
449 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* SNOW LEVELS...BETWEEN 5500 AND 6000 FT.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES FROM 5500 TO 6500
FT...2 TO 4 INCHES FROM 6500 TO 7500 FT...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FOG.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 18 AND 38. CHAIN CONTROL MAY BE
REQUIRED. ONYX PASS MAY BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE U.S. WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A
LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CUBA OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
SITTING JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
SUNSHINE STATE. THIS WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BEING THE DOMINANT TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS INITIATING
BETWEEN 21-00Z AS THEY COLLIDE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. AS
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE QUITE WARM
AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S REGION WIDE.
Quoting 24. ricderr:

A little closer to TX.



nahhh...that's an okeechobee cowboy in that video.........

No...too many teeth
Quoting 2. 62901IL:

Is that a HOOK I see?






It's raining pretty good here.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-152300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.NOW...

THIS AFTERNOON...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARDS THE WEST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST.

WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&
Quoting 14. LAbonbon:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


Almost covered every state....
Quoting 24. ricderr:

A little closer to TX.



nahhh...that's an okeechobee cowboy in that video.........
Okeechobee is southern to be true. , The dude on video was impaired.....JMO
TORNADO WARNING
COC001-152000-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0012.150515T1935Z-150515T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
135 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...


* UNTIL 200 PM MDT

* AT 134 PM MDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 8 MILES NORTH OF BENNETT...
OR 30 MILES EAST OF DENVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 10406 3976 10441 3990 10456 4000 10444
4000 10417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 229DEG 22KT 3988 10442

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Fri May 15 2015

Valid 00Z Sat May 16 2015 - 00Z Mon May 18 2015

...Spring storm system to impact western U.S. with rain, mountain snow and
below average temperatures...

...Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms expected for portions of the
plains into Saturday...

An expansive upper level storm system currently centered over the Great
Basin will slowly move eastward over the next couple of days. This storm
system will bring widespread precipitation to much of the interior western
U.S. over the next couple days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible at the lower elevations while snow will be possible at the
higher elevations, generally above 8000 feet. Much colder air will move
into the West in association with this storm system as well, with high
temperatures from 10 to 20 degrees below average through the weekend
across much of the interior western states.

A warm, moist, and unstable air mass will remain in place across much of
the central and eastern U.S. over the next couple days. Areas of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across a large portion of these
regions. A relatively weak frontal system will move across the Lower Great
Lakes this evening and toward the Northeast on Saturday. This system may
produce a more focused area of rain and/or thunderstorms across portions
of the Northeast tonight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing into Saturday. A few areas of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible tonight across the plains as weak
upper-level disturbances traverse the region. On Saturday, frontal system
crossing the West today will begin to move into the central U.S., and a
cold front at the surface will move from the Rockies into the plains. A
more organized surface low pressure system will begin to develop across
the plains Saturday night into early Sunday. A large area of widespread
showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Saturday
afternoon/evening extending from the southern plains to the northern
plains. Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms are possible across areas
of the plains tonight into Saturday. Please refer to products issued by
the Storm Prediction Center for further details on the severe weather
threat.


Ryan
Quoting 35. hydrus:




They should have the update in the next 10-15 minutes.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

COZ058-060-160130-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0050.150515T1800Z-150517T0000Z/
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
INCLUDING...CLIMAX...MOSQUITO PASS...INDEPENDENCE PASS...
MT ELBERT...MT MASSIVE
1127 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE AND EASTERN SAWATCH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET.

* CAUSE AND TIMING...A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES.

* IMPACT...ICY...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINTER STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER
8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WATCH...LISTEN TO
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER
TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN OR THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WATCH...TAKE ALONG A WINTER
SURVIVAL KIT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE
TIME OF THE ADVISORY...LISTEN TO THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND
CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE.
Quoting 31. hydrus:

Okeechobee is southern to be true. , The dude on video was impaired.....JMO

I was getting a Mississippi or Alabama vibe.

He posted in the comments--no alcohol, drugs, etc. involved, just acting stupid. :)
The East Pacific off the coast of Mexico on South is like a searing cauldron of witches brew. SSTs are ridiculous already. I have a feeling whatever develops over there is going to put a certain geographic location under a CAT 5 spell
Hydrus is from my neck of the woods
My brother, who lives just west of Houston in Sugar Land, reported pouring 3.5", 2.5", and 1" from the rain gauge in his back yard so far this week.
Quoting 40. WeatherConvoy:

Hydrus is from my neck of the woods
Hydrus was born down there in the 60,s.
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was getting a Mississippi or Alabama vibe.

He posted in the comments--no alcohol, drugs, etc. involved, just acting stupid. :)
I,d feel safer if he was acting...I have met many people in my travels..Some were kind and generous more than words can say, some were mentally impaired, some were crazy , a few were evil.....The simple truth....Be careful out there

The one day excessive rainfall outlook.




Quoting 23. HurricaneAndre:



Live coverage:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/live
While the current rain in California won't make any kind of dent in the drought, it is a start somewhere. Hopefully with the help of a relatively strong El Niño it can be greatly reduced. I remember years ago when the southeast was is a major drought, the lakes were disappearing and look where they are now. Texas is getting major relief right now from their drought and hopefully California will get their relief.
Quoting 46. Bucsboltsfan:

While the current rain in California won't make any kind of dent in the drought, it is a start somewhere. Hopefully with the help of a relatively strong El Niño it can be greatly reduced. I remember years ago when the southeast was is a major drought, the lakes were disappearing and look where they are now. Texas is getting major relief right now from their drought and hopefully California will get their relief.
Howdy BBF...Either way, it is a trend in the right direction, and even pennies add up we used to say..Its wait and see, but some rain is better than dry air..:)
I believe this will change.


Deleted CYS radar (anyone know why it was flashing?)
Those in Guam should consider themselves extremely lucky that shear and dry air didn't let up earlier than it did.

Quoting 48. hydrus:

I believe this will change.





I hope so. I went around the house looking for the A/C yesterday up here... Then I remembered, there isn't any A/C...
Quoting 52. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those in Guam should consider themselves extremely lucky that shear and dry air didn't let up earlier than it did.




I agree 13.... someone was commenting upon how he didn't see black cloud tops anymore.. -90... those look high enough to interfere with low orbit satellites
Figures! I live here in Melbourne, looked like it was going to storm this morning. Everything fired up west of 95. We can"t even get a late coastal afternoon shower going, geez! Rain chances up to 40% tomorrow then drop back down again. Hope the pattern changes soon.
Quoting 29. LargoFl:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053- 054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-152300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.NOW...

THIS AFTERNOON...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARDS THE WEST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST.

WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

Quoting 50. LAbonbon:




Was on the edge of the tornado warning in Firestone, co just north of Denver. Did not see a funnel but did get some small hail. Got another 1/2" on rain on top of the 4.5" in the last 15 days. That's pretty good for an area that averages 14" of rain annually
Quoting 55. hurricanewatcher61:

Figures! I live here in Melbourne, looked like it was going to storm this morning. Everything fired up west of 95. We can"t even get a late coastal afternoon shower going, geez! Rain chances up to 40% tomorrow then drop back down again. Hope the pattern changes soon.


Last month I spent a few days on Melbourne Beach. It was HOT HOT HOT out. Rain would have been nice.

Quoting 56. ndscott50:



Was on the edge of the tornado warning in Firestone, co just north of Denver. Did not see a funnel but did get some small hail. Got another 1/2" on rain on top of the 4.5" in the last 15 days. That's pretty good for an area that averages 14" of rain annually

That's a good amount of rain. Out of curiosity, did you end up making the drive on Mother's Day? How did you end up faring w/ the rain last weekend?
In the donut hole: it's been at least 2 weeks without rain.

The PWS North of me had a two day total of .15,
CoCoRaHS site around the corner didn't even record
anything for yesterday or didn't report it....
Quoting 60. PedleyCA:


The PWS North of me had a two day total of .15,
CoCoRaHS site around the corner didn't even record
anything for yesterday or didn't report it....

You're near Riverside, aren't you? Must have been spotty.

.25 at my house overnight; rain & melted snow.
Quoting 59. opal92nwf:
In the donut hole: it's been at least 2 weeks without rain.
You should be up here. Seems that Birmingham has once again forgotten I'm part of their forecast area. A thunderstorm hit 45 minutes ago with some of the loudest thunder I've ever heard. Had a high wind gust of 39 mph and truly torrential rain. I'm up to 2.15" in the last 45 minutes. My rain rate has been a steady 2.95" an hour and I might actually get to that in the next 15 minutes. Half the streets in town are flooded and the fire department is pulling people out of their cars with water over the hood. You'd think this would have rated at least a special weather statement, but no, nothing from BMX. More coming by the looks of the radar. It would be nice to get it at a little slower rate but I'll still take the rain any way I can get it.
Quoting 58. LAbonbon:


That's a good amount of rain. Out of curiosity, did you end up making the drive on Mother's Day? How did you end up faring w/ the rain last weekend?

We stayed home (the wife went for a massage so she was happy). The river behaved and only really flooded agricultural land and adjacent ponds. Some overland flooding did some damage to a couple local roads but overall nothing too bad. About 100 miles east of here in Morgan county it was much worse and there is still some ongoing flooding downstream on the Platte.

We almost never say this in Colorado but it would be nice if it would dry up for a bit. We are good for water east of the divide. Of course western CO and the rest of the west can use all the rain they can get.
Quoting 53. Dakster:



I hope so. I went around the house looking for the A/C yesterday up here... Then I remembered, there isn't any A/C...

I thought they called the AC up there "window?"

Quoting 55. hurricanewatcher61:

Figures! I live here in Melbourne, looked like it was going to storm this morning. Everything fired up west of 95. We can"t even get a late coastal afternoon shower going, geez! Rain chances up to 40% tomorrow then drop back down again. Hope the pattern changes soon.

You should have been at the Zoo. It rained there plenty.
Hey Pedley... Hope all is well is SoCal.

Buggy, but not Muggy out here. (AK)

60s in the "Day" and low 40's in the reduced daylight to sunrise hours.
Quoting 64. Misanthroptimist:


I thought they called the AC up there "window?"


You should have been at the Zoo. It rained there plenty.


I tried "window" but large mosquitos came in. And in the middle of the "day" it is actually hot. It is making my outdoor thermometer read 85, which I know is incorrect. Air temp is in the low 60s. I hate to spend money on screens at a rental house I hope to be out of in a few months too.

I do put a fan in front of the screened doorway to blow in some cooler air and that helps. It was more of a tongue in check joke anyways. And at night I do sleep with the windows open by my bed with the lights off so no bugs are attracted. I am up high enough that I am not worried about a visit from a bear or a moose. If my bedroom was on the ground floor I might not leave it open.

BTW - I have been to the Brevard Zoo - I really like it.
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was getting a Mississippi or Alabama vibe.

He posted in the comments--no alcohol, drugs, etc. involved, just acting stupid. :)


I haven't looked ahead to the most recent comments but this is an Okie boy per the caption below the video. "This redneck from Oklahoma freaks out about a storm rolling through their area. Drugs were very likely involved."

I can't speak to the drugs, I just think he's a good ole country boy......but to each their own.
Thank you Mr. Henson.
Mr. Henson RULEZ
Quoting 53. Dakster:



I hope so. I went around the house looking for the A/C yesterday up here... Then I remembered, there isn't any A/C...


Florida Bakes like a well done lobster
Quoting 62. sar2401:

A thunderstorm hit 45 minutes ago with some of the loudest thunder I've ever heard. ...

Your poor Radardog, Sar! Hope he didn't suffer from a heart attack. And nice to see you.

----------------------------



Cut-off low "Carlo" (btw system's name in Italy is "Ferox", will mean "the ferocious") degenerated into a nice little curl in the Med off the coast of France after annoying Italy with heavy rains (f.e. at International Airport of Milan), a lot of hail, lightning and strong winds today (not to forget: snow in the Alps). Cold core. Ahhh, if it was some months later with warmer water underneath ...


Map for tomorrow.

Good night everyone for today!
Quoting 65. Dakster:

Hey Pedley... Hope all is well is SoCal.

Buggy, but not Muggy out here. (AK)

60s in the "Day" and low 40's in the reduced daylight to sunrise hours.


Very nice here today, about the same temp as you. didn't need that extra sandbag....
Phil Klotzbach made a comparison of the ECMWF ENSO forecasts of past El Nino events and 2015 goes ahead.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
653 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER PINELLAS PARK...AND MOVING
WEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...FEATHER SOUND...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...HARBOR BLUFFS...WEST AND
EAST LEALMAN...GANDY...SAFETY HARBOR...GULFPORT...TREASURE
ISLAND...KENNETH CITY...MADEIRA BEACH AND BELLEAIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.
Quoting 74. GTstormChaserCaleb:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
653 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER PINELLAS PARK...AND MOVING
WEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...FEATHER SOUND...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...HARBOR BLUFFS...WEST AND
EAST LEALMAN...GANDY...SAFETY HARBOR...GULFPORT...TREASURE
ISLAND...KENNETH CITY...MADEIRA BEACH AND BELLEAIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.


I'm about to head to work so this is my only post but we are getting insane lightning and small hail here right now!!! It's awesome!

It's the 2nd time seeing hail this week!
Quoting 75. Jedkins01:



I'm about to head to wrk so this is my only post but we are getting insane lightning and hail here right now!!! It's awesome!
Sounds wild...Storm moving west at 5 mph....Hey, the old pattern is back!........for now,...:)
Quoting 73. Tropicsweatherpr:

Phil Klotzbach made a comparison of the ECMWF ENSO forecasts of past El Nino events and 2015 goes ahead.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.



Cat-3 Nino..?....naaa
Quoting 36. tampabaymatt:



They should have the update in the next 10-15 minutes.


Not terribly impressive for our area. I was hoping for at least 1" over the next week. We picked up a measly 0.10" today.
Quoting 73. Tropicsweatherpr:

Phil Klotzbach made a comparison of the ECMWF ENSO forecasts of past El Nino events and 2015 goes ahead.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.





Not buying it sorry
Ancient Antarctic ice shelf nearing complete collapse – ‘What is really surprising about Larsen B is how quickly the changes are taking place’

Link
Quoting 73. Tropicsweatherpr:

Phil Klotzbach made a comparison of the ECMWF ENSO forecasts of past El Nino events and 2015 goes ahead.


Philip Klotzbach
%u200F@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.




NASA's GEOS-5 is off the charts too. It may tend to lean a little high but wow.. The mean is greater than the strongest event in 1997.
Assuming Dolphin can mix out the dry air in its northern quadrant, we should see the cyclone intensify into a Category 5 equivalent over the next 24 hours.

Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Assuming Dolphin can mix out the dry air in its northern quadrant, we should see the cyclone intensify into a Category 5 equivalent cyclone over the next 24 hours.




That'll make Dolphin the 3rd Category 5 equivalent cyclone in the western Pacific this year and it's the middle of May. Considering that 1997, which had an incredible 10 Super Typhoons the entire year, only had one by this point is impressive. 2015 is going to be insane in the Pacific.
Quoting 83. CybrTeddy:



That'll make Dolphin the 3rd Category 5 equivalent cyclone in the western Pacific this year and it's the middle of May. Considering that 1997, which had an incredible 10 Super Typhoons the entire year, only had one by this point is impressive. 2015 is going to be insane in the Pacific.
Quoting 83. CybrTeddy:


ACE is insane for May 15 as is at 92.24 units and 2015 season is on the virge to be #1 on ACE before May 31rst.

WPAC ACE before May 31
Any experiences from Typhoon Dolphin in Guam?



Read more here..
Dolphin has definitely gotten better organized and may impact Iwo To later this week. It should be peaking out as a category 5 if it continues to gain strength.



Also, 95W is very weak and appears that it will not develop.

Read more here..
Quoting 79. wunderkidcayman:



Not buying it sorry
We get it.
Moving east.
Quoting 83. CybrTeddy:



That'll make Dolphin the 3rd Category 5 equivalent cyclone in the western Pacific this year and it's the middle of May. Considering that 1997, which had an incredible 10 Super Typhoons the entire year, only had one by this point is impressive. 2015 is going to be insane in the Pacific.

Yup. The Pacific should keep us busy tracking and forecasting even if the Atlantic remains dead.
Haha the continued amazing writing ofof Bob Henson. That was a very solid breakdown of the potential severe weather this weekend and the west coast factors that are influencing it. Great work!!!
Boomer's

Again tonight, with wild Lake P. South Shore Lightning towards Slidell.


There is a chance this training of cells will cause some issues if it persist much longer tonight.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 90. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yup. The Pacific should keep us busy tracking and forecasting even if the Atlantic remains dead.


No kidding. We could easily see a WPAC season with an ACE >550 units.
Sunrise over the Typhoon

RGB Loop

The Atlantic 2015 Season will have much to watch.

Never bet the line.

Every year brings the same chance of a Major, Major.

92 was like dat.

So was 95,

So was 65.

85,and 05'.

Be prepared. Be smart.



Quoting 75. Jedkins01:



I'm about to head to work so this is my only post but we are getting insane lightning and small hail here right now!!! It's awesome!

It's the 2nd time seeing hail this week!


That was quite a storm that rolled through Largo, still raining now
WU posters ... hope you donned your pfd to work today ....

From this morning Key West NWS discussion ... (their caps)

TODAY IS WEAR YOUR LIFE JACKET TO WORK DAY...AN EVENT WHICH HELPS TO
KICK OF NATIONAL SAFE BOATING WEEK...MAY 16-22. REMEMBER TO BOAT
SAFELY AND RESPONSIBLY!
&&

- nite
Quoting 83. CybrTeddy:



That'll make Dolphin the 3rd Category 5 equivalent cyclone in the western Pacific this year and it's the middle of May. Considering that 1997, which had an incredible 10 Super Typhoons the entire year, only had one by this point is impressive. 2015 is going to be insane in the Pacific.



can wait for the fall moths when the storms heads N in too the W PAC jet and head are way i think come Fall we could be looking at a big time flooding event here in CA
Quoting 99. Patrap:

The Atlantic 2015 Season will have much to watch.

Never bet the line.

Every year brings the same chance of a Major, Major.

92 was like dat.

So was 95,

So was 65.

85,and 05'.

Be prepared. Be smart.




85 was kinda rough...6 landfalling hurricanes...And a rather potent depression in the West Caribbean December-7th..

SOI now heading off the scale. Major El-Nino now in the works.

Quoting 98. Patrap:

Sunrise over the Typhoon

RGB Loop


Those pesky phoons...goin around wreckin things....Amazingly efficient at movin hot air north tho
Looks like Igor (2010) in size and when he had 135 mph.

Igor:


Dolphin:
Quoting 105. hydrus:
Those pesky phoons...goin around wreckin things....Amazingly efficient at movin hot air north tho


Massive heat transfer occurring across the Pacific. It would be funny seeing all the post from some on here in January mocking me about this set up now look.

Quoting 107. StormTrackerScott:



Massive heat transfer occurring across the Pacific. It would be funny seeing all the post from some on here in January mocking me about this set up now look.


I am curious to see how this Nino interacts with the unusual patterns that are taking place. I hope the subtropical jet stays far to the south this coming winter...way far....
Nino 3.4 now @ its highest level since the 2009/2010 El-Nino.

Dolphin on Himawari. Click pic for loop.
Geesh!

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.32
Uncle, Uncle'



storm total rainfall loop
Quoting 100. Hurricanes101:



That was quite a storm that rolled through Largo, still raining now


I've been hit 3 times this week with classic sea breeze driven early evening thunderstorms. Very unusual for mid-May.
115. yoboi
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
837 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MTZ067-170245-
/O.CON.KBYZ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150518T0000Z/
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE LOCATIONS OF...COOKE CITY
837 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000
FEET...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ON NORTHEAST-FACING
SLOPES. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVELERS AND RECREATIONISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Quoting 111. StormTrackerScott:

Geesh!

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.32

In 1997 it topped out at ~2.8. It was over 2.5 by May. ESPI is much more conservative than some of the models at the moment.
I portend a major pattern change by Memorial Day Weekend/into the last full week of May!!
Quoting 48. hydrus:

I believe this will change.





What makes you say that?
Quoting 113. Bucsboltsfan:



I've been hit 3 times this week with classic sea breeze driven early evening thunderstorms. Very unusual for mid-May.


I live in Central Pinellas and we've had rain the past 4 days in a row from sea breeze convection, the last couple days was not too much at my place but we got hit heavy with 1.01 on Tuesday and a lot of lightning and wind, today was our most intense thunderstorm yet at my place. I was right under the warning earlier but not quite in the worst part, yet still we had wind gusts of 40-50 mph, pea to dime sized hail, and a lot of lightning. We also had very heavy rain in a short time.

I'm not sure exactly how much as I use a COCORAHS rain gauge for measurement instead of a digital gauge as my digital gauge broke, and since I had to work right after, so I'm headed to bed soon and I'll check the measurement early in the morning. I'm not sure how much we had, but my street has some flooding so definitely a good bit above 1 inch.
Tomorrow is a complicated severe weather day. A morning mesoscale convective system (i.e. crapvection) seems likely at this point. The key becomes how much the atmosphere destablizes after that activity moves out. If we see sufficient destablization like the CAMs (convection allowing models) are indicating, then it could get dangerous across south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma.

The 0z 4km NAM shows isolated supercells across the aforementioned region around dinner:

3.79" at the House here on the S Shore near the Causeway.

Garage Squeeged and wet vac'd about 200 gallons easily.

The Harley High and Dry.



Quoting 100. Hurricanes101:



That was quite a storm that rolled through Largo, still raining now


Yeah it sure was, a neighbor has a down tree several houses down, and my street is flooded, crazy stuff considering there have been 4 days in a row with strong to severe sea breeze thunderstorms in the Tampa Bay area in May. If it was July, it would be just typical, but not mid May. If we get sea breeze activity here this time of year, it's usually weak and not heavy.
<
NASA's global temperature for April is just in, at 0.71 C above the 1951-80 average, making it the joint third warmest April in the record. The first four months of the year equaled the 2010 record of 0.775 C above average.

The past twelve months have been a whopping 0.73 C above average. Compare with the warmest full year, 2014, at 0.68C above average.

NASA dataset
ION, a large wedge tornado was observed in southeastern Wyoming this afternoon. It caused significant damage in the town of Torrington (radar image I took as it was approaching). Strong tornadoes are pretty uncommon in Wyoming (there has been 1 documented EF4, 9 documented EF3, and 52 documented EF2s on record in the state).

Link
co2now.org has April CO2

403.26 ppm CO2
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA..WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA...AND A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...


..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB SWD TO N TX

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD TO
CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NY AND ROUGHLY THE
NRN HALF OF PA INTO NRN NJ...

..SUMMARY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA
SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. RISKS WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND SEVERAL TORNADOES -- WITH A FEW LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT/LONG-LIVED.


..SYNOPSIS

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERIOR WRN U.S. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY...TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS AN
EMBEDDED VORT MAX SHIFTS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. E OF THE MS RIVER.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INVOF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...A FAIRLY DEEP LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS NEB...WITH THE
TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK AND INTO
NRN/WRN TX. THE EMERGENCE OF THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM INTO THE
PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE STORMS FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY MAY HAVE
SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE OVER SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION --
AND OVERALL DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...THE
SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWD
ACROSS OK INTO N TX APPEARS OTHERWISE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
THEREFORE -- DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS NUMEROUS HIGH-RES
CAMS SUGGEST -- TO VARYING DEGREES -- THAT THE EARLY/ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EWD ACROSS NEB/KS/OK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY OVER
WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- INVOF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE AND LIKELY TO THE W OF MOST OF THE MORE RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED UVV FOCUSED INVOF THE FRONT/DRYLINE...IT APPEARS THAT
EARLY REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WILL OCCUR -- LIKELY
IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME. ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK NWD INTO THE WRN KS
VICINITY...SOME OF THE REMNANT STORMS FARTHER E MAY ALSO REINTENSIFY
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY ONGOING CONVECTION.

AS MENTIONED...THE BACKGROUND KINEMATIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORMS DEVELOPING INVOF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO
RAPIDLY ORGANIZE...WITH RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED. AS STORMS MATURE AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SLY H8 FLOW INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 40
KT...RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED.


SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN ARCING BAND WITH TIME WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS NEB/KS/OK...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS TX
AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT AFTER DARK.

..NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA

A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EARLY/ONGOING AREA OF CONVECTION
SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. THE RESIDUAL
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CAST UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DEGREE OF
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION -- AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS
REGION.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT POCKETS OF AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT -- PROGGED TO ARC
FROM SERN MT ENEWD ACROSS NWRN SD/ND AND THEN SEWD INTO CENTRAL MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON -- SUCH THAT SCATTERED STORM REDEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR. WITH STRONGEST SHEAR EXPECTED FROM THE ERN
HALF OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MN /WITH FLOW BACKING FROM SELY AT LOW
LEVELS TO SLY/SSWLY AT MID LEVELS/...RISK FOR ISOLATED
ROTATING/SEVERE STORMS EVOLVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
IS APPARENT. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME TORNADO RISK IS ALSO APPARENT -- PARTICULARLY
NEAR AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT.

..SRN NY/NRN PA/NRN NJ VICINITY

AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTS EWD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PA/NY VICINITY. AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THOUGH WEAK CAPE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
RISK...AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL OR TWO -- AIDED BY AMPLY STRONG
FLOW ALOFT -- COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 05/16/2015


Depending on morning crapvection, I wouldn't be surprised if parts of the D1 moderate risk gets upgraded sometime later today. The wording in the discussion certainly has a high risk feel to it.
Yes, and I'm shaking in my bare feet. (Not)

I did have the same thought about a potential High risk. SPC had to wait and see what Friday's convection was going to do, and they had to give it a moderate based on realizing today's convection did not (much) materialize south of Nebraska. Present ongoing convection could leave an outflow boundary stretched across OK. Dryline in Kansas and N OK is likely to be the focus. (Pure guess) But we really can't know yet.

Now I probably should go read the outlook instead of just looking at the pictures. LPL
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 16 2015
==========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (935 hPa) located at 15.8N 141.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 18.7N 138.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 21.7N 138.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South of Japan
72 HRS: 24.2N 140.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters
super typhoon from Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Hello,
I am Dave and this question is for anyone who can provide me with an answer to this concern I have.

About half the time including today, when I am on this website, I am experiencing a superimposed image of blue printing of 100 words in blue print on the left side and it looks something like this:

*Wunder Photos

*Blogs

*Marine Weather

*Ski & Snow Reports

*Maps Catalog

*U.S. Severe Weather

And so on, It's in blue print and its covering over on all the blogs, not just my own blog. This also causes me not to be able to update my own blog because those superimposed blue words on the left are in the way. Is this a website problem? or is it my laptop? Have any of you experienced this before? Furthermore, this has never happened on "Classic" or any other past wunderground sites. This only happens on this new site. I would greatly appreciate any info you can give me.

Thankyou,
Dave
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY.


Not one thing usual about snow in Wyoming above 7,000 feet in May.

Good morning.
Nice new map from wetteronline.de with all confirmed tornadoes in Germany this May so far. Orange = F3.

Another new map for 2015 with explanations in English from Meteo Europe.



Impressive supercell video from southwestern Germany (evening of May 13)

Large-scale clean-up operations in Germany after tornado
Hundreds of homes damaged

Article (abstract; full text available)
A Climatology of Tornadoes in Europe: Results from the European Severe Weather Database
Pieter Groenemeijer, Thilo Kuehne
Monthly Weather Review (Impact Factor: 3.62). 12/2014; 142(12). DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1
A climatology of tornadoes (over land and water) is presented, based on the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), which contains reports of 9529 tornadoes. With the exception of a few small countries, tornadoes have been reported from all regions of Europe. The highest density of tornado reports is in Western and Central Europe. ESWD tornado reports increased strongly from 1995 to 2006 as a result of increased data collection efforts, followed by a decrease that likely has a meteorological nature. There is strong underreporting in the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe. The daily cycle of tornadoes over land (sea) peaks between 3 and 4 p.m. (9 and 10 a.m.) local mean time. The Mediterranean annual maximum is in autumn and winter, while regions further north have a maximum in summer. In total, 822 tornado fatalities have been recorded in the ESWD, which include 10 tornadoes with more than 20 fatalities. The average annual number of tornado fatalities in Europe is estimated to be between 10 and 15. F2 and F3 tornadoes are responsible for the majority of the fatalities.


Looking at Dolphin's current satellite presentation Guam certainly dodged the bullet.

Good morning it now appears Nino 3.4 will reach or exceed 1.5C (Strong El-Nino values) by the end of May as Westerly Winds are beginning to push up 1.5C values across this region. I supposed the CFSv2 wasn't nuts after all.





Lots of warming in the Central Pacific as all the heat from the W-Pac moves east.

Another sub 900mb West Pacific storm, they just keep rolling out......


20150516 | 0832 | W-PAC | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 16.2 | -141.0 | 898 | 140 | 07W | DOLPHIN | 1 | GS


Link
watch out for severe weather today
I'm still not buying it Scott

But what I can say is I think we may just max out at 1.5-1.7 but that's it I don't see it goin higher
I'll stick with that for now and I'm not changing unless something drastically changes and your apocalyptic mega strong El nino forms lol
I notice close to I-95 got some good down pours.
Quoting 64. Misanthroptimist:


I thought they called the AC up there "window?"


You should have been at the Zoo. It rained there plenty.
Quoting 127. Patrap:

co2now.org has April CO2

403.26 ppm CO2


Looks like its well above 400 PPM and going to stay that way.
The next big contributor is going to be the venting of stored CO2 from the permafrost's and Artic.
Not much chance of the increasing CO2 being absorbed into the seas and land and with less vegetation due to clearances the scales may get more vertical in the near future.

We are having the first major Spanish forest fire this weekend with over 1500 Hectares already burned in the Alicante area. That's probably about 4000 acres and of course the fire is not yet under control.
All this burning is also contributing to CO2 levels.
Impressive animation of the eye of SuperTyphoon Dolphin.Look at the mesovortices.

Link
146. yoboi
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

.RELATIVELY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE WAVES
TO INCREASE. THIS INCREASE IN WAVES...WHEN COMBINED WITH SHIFTING
SAND BARS...WILL CREATE STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

FLZ108-112-114-115-170000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.RP.S.0030.150516T0805Z-150517T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
405 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SURF...2 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL
FLAGS AND SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

&&

$$

FOURNIER
147. flsky
Are you on a computer, phone, tablet??

Quoting 135. Cloudyinthewest:

Hello,
I am Dave and this question is for anyone who can provide me with an answer to this concern I have.

About half the time including today, when I am on this website, I am experiencing a superimposed image of blue printing of 100 words in blue print on the left side and it looks something like this:

*Wunder Photos

*Blogs

*Marine Weather

*Ski & Snow Reports

*Maps Catalog

*U.S. Severe Weather

And so on, It's in blue print and its covering over on all the blogs, not just my own blog. This also causes me not to be able to update my own blog because those superimposed blue words on the left are in the way. Is this a website problem? or is it my laptop? Have any of you experienced this before? Furthermore, this has never happened on "Classic" or any other past wunderground sites. This only happens on this new site. I would greatly appreciate any info you can give me.

Thankyou,
Dave
I think we're gonna see another bust on the severe risk today. Lots of convection across the MDT risk area, and the RAP and HRRR, which are generally reliable, show more rounds of widespread convection firing later this morning and into early afternoon. That's not how outbreaks happen. Bob put it best in the blog. There's no resistance this year; storms are forming at will all hours of the day. No capping. The upper air setup is supportive of a moderate to high risk day, but there's no instability. Obviously if convection does wait longer to get going it could be a big day, but that looks unlikely to me.
Quoting 148. MAweatherboy1:

I think we're gonna see another bust on the severe risk today. Lots of convection across the MDT risk area, and the RAP and HRRR, which are generally reliable, show more rounds of widespread convection firing later this morning and into early afternoon. That's not how outbreaks happen. Bob put it best in the blog. There's no resistance this year; storms are forming at will all hours of the day. No capping. The upper air setup is supportive of a moderate to high risk day, but there's no instability. Obviously if convection does wait longer to get going it could be a big day, but that looks unlikely to me.
Hello MA...The trough is expected to take on a negative tilt along with a potent vort max..That will likely be the catalyst for the severe thunderstorms.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across the plains
states Saturday into Saturday night...from parts of Nebraska
southward to Texas. Risks will include very large hail...damaging
wind gusts...and several tornadoes -- with a few likely to be
significant/long-lived.


...
A large upper trough crossing the interior western U.S. At the start of
the period is forecast to shift into the plains through the
day...taking on an increasingly negative tilt with time as an
embedded vorticity maximum shifts quickly across the southern rockies into the
central/southern High Plains by early afternoon. Downstream...ridging
will prevail across most of the U.S. East of the MS river.


At the surface...low pressure is forecast to gradually consolidate
in vicinity of the Central High plains...while a Pacific cold front crosses
the southern High Plains into the afternoon. By the end of the
period...a fairly deep low is forecast across Nebraska...with the
trailing front extending southward across central Kansas/central OK and into
northern/western Texas. The emergence of this potent storm system into the
plains should support widespread/substantial severe storms from
early afternoon into the overnight hours.


..central and Southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be underway across portions of the
plains states at the start of the period...and evolution of this
convection and associated cloud cover through the day may have
substantial influence over subsequent afternoon destabilization --
and overall degree of severe risk. With that said however...the
synoptic/kinematic environment across the Central Plains and southward
across OK into North Texas appears otherwise highly suggestive of potential
for a severe weather outbreak. Therefore -- despite the
uncertainties...an upgrade to moderate risk appears warranted at
this time.
Quoting 144. PlazaRed:


Looks like its well above 400 PPM and going to stay that way.
The next big contributor is going to be the venting of stored CO2 from the permafrost's and Artic.
Not much chance of the increasing CO2 being absorbed into the seas and land and with less vegetation due to clearances the scales may get more vertical in the near future.

We are having the first major Spanish forest fire this weekend with over 1500 Hectares already burned in the Alicante area. That's probably about 4000 acres and of course the fire is not yet under control.
All this burning is also contributing to CO2 levels.
The c02 levels will increase exponentially...Unless something on a planetary scale occurs.
Quoting 131. Ameister12:

Depending on morning crapvection, I wouldn't be surprised if parts of the D1 moderate risk gets upgraded sometime later today. The wording in the discussion certainly has a high risk feel to it.


There is some crapvection in Oklahoma, but I don't think it'll cause any problems.

I think there will be a HIGH RISK day today.

Another one for this list.
From Vox:

The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit

There has always been an odd tenor to discussions among climate scientists, policy wonks, and politicians, a passive-aggressive quality, and I think it can be traced to the fact that everyone involved has to dance around the obvious truth, at risk of losing their status and influence.

The obvious truth about global warming is this: barring miracles, humanity is in for some awful shit.

Here is a plotting of dozens of climate modeling scenarios out to 2100, from the IPCC:



The black line is carbon emissions to date. The red line is the status quo — a projection of where emissions will go if no new substantial policy is passed to restrain greenhouse gas emissions.

We recently passed 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere; the status quo will take us up to 1,000 ppm, raising global average temperature (from a pre-industrial baseline) between 3.2 and 5.4 degrees Celsius. That will mean, according to a 2012 World Bank report, "extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise," the effects of which will be "tilted against many of the world's poorest regions," stalling or reversing decades of development work. "A 4°C warmer world can, and must be, avoided," said the World Bank president.

But that's where we're headed. It will take enormous effort just to avoid that fate. Holding temperature down under 2°C -- the widely agreed upon target -- would require an utterly unprecedented level of global mobilization and coordination, sustained over decades. There's no sign of that happening, or reason to think it's plausible anytime soon. And so, awful shit it is.

Nobody wants to say that. Why not? It might seem obvious — no one wants to hear it! — but there's a bit more to it than that. We'll return to the question in a minute, but first let's look at how this unsatisfying debate plays out in public.

Read more >>
154. flsky
Thanks for the link.

Quoting 127. Patrap:

co2now.org has April CO2

403.26 ppm CO2


152. Xandra
12:40 PM GMT on May 16, 2015


The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit

There has always been an odd tenor to discussions among climate scientists, policy wonks, and politicians, a passive-aggressive quality, and I think it can be traced to the fact that everyone involved has to dance around the obvious truth, at risk of losing their status and influence.


Greetings Xandra.....I myself would post more findings ( including my own ) but would rather keep quiet than be labeled an alarmist here. The truth is this. The data and mathematics exist, the proof is there, and significant changes are at hand.
What do you all think if the planet earth reaches 500ppm CO2 within in the next 25 years? I just want to open a discussion about this
Remember limestone and cement are huge sinks of CO2, as well as bog and the boreal forests. If the artic and the tundra continue to warm. Huge amount of CO2 and methane will be released into the atmosphere. This is what happened about 55 million years ago in what was called the Torrid Age. If you have time folks google torrid age for data results
I do believe with a globe warming due to CO2 and methane which are the chief contributors in global warming gases we will witness stronger el ninos like the potential of a very strong el nino this year. This will just become the norm. remember the El Nino teleconnection warms the planet, so in essence you will get a positive feedback set up. earth will eventually balance itself out but not in our lifetimes. CO2 stays in the atmosphere over 100 years. So we can expect wild weather and strange weather happening in places. For example the snow in Saudi Arabia this year as well as the snow in Egypt. Hurricanes in the Mediterrean like we saw in Siciliy. All of these weather and climate signals indicate a changing climate
Quoting 156. WeatherConvoy:

What do you all think if the planet earth reaches 500ppm CO2 within in the next 25 years? I just want to open a discussion about this


I suspect that just might happen. (Note that is not a called a prediction)
161. yoboi
Quoting 160. SLU:



The computer models busted on the "Snowmageddon" forecast in January only 48 hours out so how on earth do we expected these garbage in - garbage out computer models to be accurate with their predictions of the impact of "climate change" 100 years from now?

Frankly speaking, most of this talk of the impact of "climate change" generations in the future is pure disinformation because no one knows what impact, if any, this NWO agenda will have on humanity so far in the future.

Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming? It is because the one common denominator in our solar system called the sun is the prime regulator of temperature in our solar system and the sun goes through periods of heightened solar radiation which heats up the solar system. By comparison, human induced "global warming/climate change" is so minute in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't even be up for debate in the manner in which it is because the vast majority of carbon emissions come from natural sources anyway.




Looks less than 10% to me....
Quoting 156. WeatherConvoy:

What do you all think if the planet earth reaches 500ppm CO2 within in the next 25 years? I just want to open a discussion about this

We have had most of the discussions over the last few years, from now on its going to be just a simple case of watching what happens next.
Its a bit like watching the dynamiting of full dam wall, the results are predictable, everything else will be just trivia.
Everybody will have their news and observations, like our record 43/c temps this week.
Needless to say there will always be many who will always declare everything to be an anomaly.

There is a strong probability that none of the actions being now taken will have much effect, similar to taking water out of flooding river with a bucket.
Quoting 157. WeatherConvoy:

Remember limestone and cement are huge sinks of CO2, as well as bog and the boreal forests. If the artic and the tundra continue to warm. Huge amount of CO2 and methane will be released into the atmosphere. This is what happened about 55 million years ago in what was called the Torrid Age. If you have time folks google torrid age for data results


all of the "limestone" exposed to open ocean is being affected by the ongoing acidification of our seas.. 5% per decade INCREASE in acidity is ongoing. At some point the oceans will begin dissolving carbonate and THAT CO2 will be added... NOVA just had a very scary program on, that I think is well worth watching; Lethal Seas
Quoting 158. WeatherConvoy:

I do believe with a globe warming due to CO2 and methane which are the chief contributors in global warming gases we will witness stronger el ninos like the potential of a very strong el nino this year. This will just become the norm. remember the El Nino teleconnection warms the planet, so in essence you will get a positive feedback set up. earth will eventually balance itself out but not in our lifetimes. CO2 stays in the atmosphere over 100 years. So we can expect wild weather and strange weather happening in places. For example the snow in Saudi Arabia this year as well as the snow in Egypt. Hurricanes in the Mediterrean like we saw in Siciliy. All of these weather and climate signals indicate a changing climate
The oceans are responsible for the balance your referring to. The Keeling Curve and the data with it demonstrate that the oceanic co2 pump is slowing down. This causes slowing of nutrients to phytoplankton which store c02 in there tissue....Link
Quoting 160. SLU:



The computer models busted on the "Snowmageddon" forecast in January only 48 hours out so how on earth do we expected these garbage in - garbage out computer models to be accurate with their predictions of the impact of "climate change" 100 years from now?

Frankly speaking, most of this talk of the impact of "climate change" generations in the future is pure disinformation because no one knows what impact, if any, this NWO agenda will have on humanity so far in the future.

Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming? It is because the one common denominator in our solar system called the sun is the prime regulator of temperature in our solar system and the sun goes through periods of heightened solar radiation which heats up the solar system. By comparison, human induced "global warming/climate change" is so minute in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't even be up for debate in the manner in which it is because the vast majority of carbon emissions come from natural sources anyway.


Comparing the Earth to the other planets is ludicrous. There is nothing minute about the pollution and garbage we produce.
Quoting 160. SLU:




Your post was misinformed conspiratorial nonsense, or do you actually believe that we can't predict that December in NY will be cooler than June?
Quoting 166. hydrus:

Comparing the Earth to the other planets is ludicrous. There is nothing minute about the pollution and garbage we produce.

Not to mention that the claim that "the other planets are warming" is bogus.
Quoting 168. Misanthroptimist:


Not to mention that the claim that "the other planets are warming" is bogus.
As I said..Making such a comparison is groundless at best. The planets, there mass, make up, and huge differences with distance from the Sun , make for a baseless analogy..
I have a serious question, since deforestation is one cause of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, how many tree's have each person here that's worrying about global warming replanted?...talking about and worrying about GW isn't going to solve the problem one bit...do something about it in your own lil way..just a thought.
Quoting 161. yoboi:



Looks less than 10% to me....
Maybe..10% multiplied by x amount of years equals what.?
Quoting 170. LargoFl:

I have a serious question, since deforestation is one cause of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, how many tree's have each person here that's worrying about global warming replanted?...talking about and worrying about GW isn't going to solve the problem one bit...do something about it in your own lil way..just a thought.
There are people planting..A few have even planted entire forests.
Quoting 170. LargoFl:

I have a serious question, since deforestation is one cause of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, how many tree's have each person here that's worrying about global warming replanted?...talking about and worrying about GW isn't going to solve the problem one bit...do something about it in your own lil way..just a thought.

A nice thought but wholly insufficient to the task at hand. All natural processes for the entire planet take up only around half of the CO2 we emit each year. It's going to take more than the passengers bailing with paper cups to keep this titanic afloat.
Quoting 160. SLU:

...
Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming?
...

Climate Myth...Other Planets are Warming
Excerpts:
-Mars: the notion that Mars is warming came from an unfortunate conflation of weather and climate. Based on two pictures taken 22 years apart, assumptions were made that have not proved to be reliable. There is currently no evidence to support claims that Mars is warming at all. More on Mars...
-Jupiter: the notion that Jupiter is warming is actually based on predictions, since no warming has actually been observed. Climate models predict temperature increases along the equator and cooling at the poles. It is believed these changes will be catalysed by storms that merge into one super-storm, inhibiting the planet's ability to mix heat. Sceptical arguments have ignored the fact this is not a phenomenon we have observed, and that the modelled forcing is storm and dust movements, not changes in solar radiation.
-Neptune: observations of changes in luminosity on the surface of both Neptune and its largest moon, Triton, have been taken to indicate warming caused by increased solar activity. In fact, the brightening is due to the planet's seasons changing, but very slowly. Summer is coming to Neptune's southern hemisphere, bringing more sunlight, as it does every 164 years.
...
The reality is that total solar irradiance has been slightly declining averaged over the past four solar cycles: The weak solar cycle and its consequences

Here is the latest data from NASA: Solar Cycle Progression

Furthermore, weather on the gas giants is driven by internally-generated heat, much more so than by the sun. Jupiter's Massive Storms Resemble Earth's But Are Powered By The Planet Itself
"Astronomers from Cornell University, the California Institute of Technology and the NASA Galileo Imaging Team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif., have discovered that some thunderstorms on Jupiter closely resemble clusters of thunderstorms, called mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs), found on Earth. Contrary to previous belief, these MCCs develop from the intense heat emanating from Jupiter's core rather than from the sun. And these MCC's drive the planet's weather system. "
Quoting 170. LargoFl:

I have a serious question, since deforestation is one cause of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, how many tree's have each person here that's worrying about global warming replanted?...talking about and worrying about GW isn't going to solve the problem one bit...do something about it in your own lil way..just a thought.

We planted about 40 trees on the river bank to help combat erosion.
2 years later there was a massive flood caused by an unprecedented storm never the likes of which had been recorded before in that area and the river banks washed away along with 2 acres of fields leaving only rocks, so there was no further possibility of planting more trees in that area.
We still planted trees in other areas away from the river though.
Quoting 156. WeatherConvoy:

What do you all think if the planet earth reaches 500ppm CO2 within in the next 25 years? I just want to open a discussion about this


There's no "if" about it. Unless there are some major science breakthroughs in energy we're going to continue our fossil fuel binge until we either run out or it kills us.

That being said, there is a lag in the climate system when it comes to adding CO2. It takes several decades to feel the full impact. An analogy would be taking a drop of food coloring and dropping it into a glass of water. It doesn't instantly color all the water, but over time it will.

In 25 years we will be experiencing the full impact of the CO2 we add today (it takes approximately 30 years). The future 500 ppm would be fully felt 30 years after that. So just when you think things are bad, you got got another 30 years of things getting worse.

In 25 years, barring a global event of some kind, we'll be noticing a lot of unpleasant things about our climate. For a full discussion I would suggest reading the impacts section of the IPCC.
Quoting 99. Patrap:

The Atlantic 2015 Season will have much to watch.

Never bet the line.

Every year brings the same chance of a Major, Major.

92 was like dat.

So was 95,

So was 65.

85,and 05'.

Be prepared. Be smart.




Quoting 158. WeatherConvoy:

I do believe with a globe warming due to CO2 and methane which are the chief contributors in global warming gases we will witness stronger el ninos like the potential of a very strong el nino this year. This will just become the norm. remember the El Nino teleconnection warms the planet, so in essence you will get a positive feedback set up. earth will eventually balance itself out but not in our lifetimes. CO2 stays in the atmosphere over 100 years. So we can expect wild weather and strange weather happening in places. For example the snow in Saudi Arabia this year as well as the snow in Egypt. Hurricanes in the Mediterrean like we saw in Siciliy. All of these weather and climate signals indicate a changing climate


Careful. Not every weird weather event is directly attributable to climate change. Sometimes weird weather just happens. The thing that climate researchers look for are long term deviations from historical trends. So a 1000 year flood may or may not be directly attributable to climate change. Ten 1000 year floods over the course of 20 years however strongly indicate that something has changed.
Quoting 178. Xyrus2000:



Careful. Not every weird weather event is directly attributable to climate change. Sometimes weird weather just happens. The thing that climate researchers look for are long term deviations from historical trends. So a 1000 year flood may or may not be directly attributable to climate change. Ten 1000 year floods over the course of 20 years however strongly indicate that something has changed.
Good post...People who have been on the blog a long time, or are good at math already know this. Weather is fickle I heard someone say..:)
Quoting 148. MAweatherboy1:

I think we're gonna see another bust on the severe risk today. Lots of convection across the MDT risk area, and the RAP and HRRR, which are generally reliable, show more rounds of widespread convection firing later this morning and into early afternoon. That's not how outbreaks happen. Bob put it best in the blog. There's no resistance this year; storms are forming at will all hours of the day. No capping. The upper air setup is supportive of a moderate to high risk day, but there's no instability. Obviously if convection does wait longer to get going it could be a big day, but that looks unlikely to me.

It's not as simple as morning crapvection = bust. Several high risk days had thunderstorm complexes move through the risk area. April 27 had a full fledged QLCS with multiple strong tornadoes during the pre dawn hours. How much the atmosphere destabilizes afterward is key. And based on several models, it should be plenty unstable.
Quoting 170. Largo
Quoting 170. LargoFl:

I have a serious question, since deforestation is one cause of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, how many tree's have each person here that's worrying about global warming replanted?...talking about and worrying about GW isn't going to solve the problem one bit...do something about it in your own lil way..just a thought.


I love being judged by standards created in an effort to dismiss concern over a very real issue. On that note, since you have shown yourself to be immediately concerned about an ice age coming on multiple occasions, how many trees have you burned down in an effort to stave off the frigid times ahead?
182. yoboi
BELLEMONT, Ariz. (AP) — A rare springtime snowstorm hit a small town just west of Flagstaff, dumping more than 7 inches of snow.

The Flagstaff airport has seen more than 3 inches of snow on May 15 or later only a handful of times.

Flagstaff and Bellemont have similar climatology, but a cold trough settled over Bellemont overnight and left just traces of snow in Flagstaff on Friday.

"It's always good to see rain and snow this late in the season," said Brian Klimowski of the National Weather Service. "Every storm we get like this helps push back the onset of our fire season."

Link
Quoting 138. barbamz:



Looking at Dolphin's current satellite presentation Guam certainly dodged the bullet.





It's interesting that not only are the building codes strong there, but the trees are very climatized to hurricane force winds. Sustained winds of hurricane force with gusts to over 100 mph were reported on the island, yet most trees looked to have fared quite well.

If that was the mainland U.S. damage would be a lot worse. Where my grand parents lived in NC, trees would topple with 40 50 mph winds.
Quoting 166. hydrus:

Comparing the Earth to the other planets is ludicrous. There is nothing minute about the pollution and garbage we produce.

The graphic describing the carbon cycle shows
Quoting 160. SLU:



The computer models busted on the "Snowmageddon" forecast in January only 48 hours out so how on earth do we expected these garbage in - garbage out computer models to be accurate with their predictions of the impact of "climate change" 100 years from now?

Frankly speaking, most of this talk of the impact of "climate change" generations in the future is pure disinformation because no one knows what impact, if any, this NWO agenda will have on humanity so far in the future.

Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming? It is because the one common denominator in our solar system called the sun is the prime regulator of temperature in our solar system and the sun goes through periods of heightened solar radiation which heats up the solar system. By comparison, human induced "global warming/climate change" is so minute in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't even be up for debate in the manner in which it is because the vast majority of carbon emissions come from natural sources anyway.


Quoting 160. SLU:



The computer models busted on the "Snowmageddon" forecast in January only 48 hours out so how on earth do we expected these garbage in - garbage out computer models to be accurate with their predictions of the impact of "climate change" 100 years from now?

Frankly speaking, most of this talk of the impact of "climate change" generations in the future is pure disinformation because no one knows what impact, if any, this NWO agenda will have on humanity so far in the future.

Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming? It is because the one common denominator in our solar system called the sun is the prime regulator of temperature in our solar system and the sun goes through periods of heightened solar radiation which heats up the solar system. By comparison, human induced "global warming/climate change" is so minute in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't even be up for debate in the manner in which it is because the vast majority of carbon emissions come from natural sources anyway.




The carbon cycle graphic shows that industrial and land use add s 12 get carbon per year to the atmosphere. The larger numbers into and out of biomass and the oceans were in balance before the industrial era.
Quoting 160. SLU:



The computer models busted on the "Snowmageddon" forecast in January only 48 hours out so how on earth do we expected these garbage in - garbage out computer models to be accurate with their predictions of the impact of "climate change" 100 years from now?


Because most of us with functioning brain cells know the difference between weather and climate. It's easy to predict and average (climate). It's much more difficult to predict a single instance (weather).

Quoting 160. SLU:
Frankly speaking, most of this talk of the impact of "climate change" generations in the future is pure disinformation because no one knows what impact, if any, this NWO agenda will have on humanity so far in the future.


Wow. Straight to nutter conspiracy land. Ok. So what your saying is that there has been a global worldwide conspiracy in effect since the 1800's that's basically just been making this all up and no one noticed until you, random internet poster, uncovered the truth?

Yeah. Thanks, but I'm going to stick to the math and physics on this one.

Quoting 160. SLU:
Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming?


If a 747 can fly from Boston to Los Angeles, then why can't my car?

That's about how much sense your question makes. Even if it were true (and it isn't), the climate system on some random planet is not Earth. The same physics and chemistry apply, but the conditions are not the same. Therefore, their climatic responses would also be different.

Quoting 160. SLU:
It is because the one common denominator in our solar system called the sun is the prime regulator of temperature in our solar system and the sun goes through periods of heightened solar radiation which heats up the solar system.


Solar activity has been less than normal, so you're argument is dead before it leaves the gate. Not to mention the fact that scientists are well aware of the role the sun plays.

Quoting 160. SLU:
By comparison, human induced "global warming/climate change" is so minute in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't even be up for debate in the manner in which it is because the vast majority of carbon emissions come from natural sources anyway.


If you add more energy to a system than it can radiate away, what happens to that system? What if it's just 1 watt more? .1 watts more? Conservation of energy. Energy doesn't just "go away". If system is radiating less energy than it is receiving, no matter how tiny the difference, then the system will warm up. Basic physics.

Sure, a couple of watts/sq. meter doesn't sound like much. But that's every day of every year, slowly building up heat in the system. The heat will keep building until an equilibrium is reached, which won't happen until GHG concentrations in our atmosphere stabilize. Again, basic physics.

I see you also interpreted the information about the carbon cycle incorrectly as well. The natural part of the carbon cycle, of course, produces the most carbon by a wide margin. But the natural carbon cycle is in balance. Things die in winter, carbon goes up. Things come back to life in spring, carbon goes down.

We are adding more carbon to the system. It's only a small percentage of the natural carbon cycle, but the system can't readily absorb the excess. Hence why CO2 concentrations have been increasing. Only by a couple ppm per year, however after a number of years it adds up. With no new massive carbon sink to take our contribution out of the atmosphere (and current carbon sinks reaching saturation and/or being destroyed), levels have increased from about 280ppm to over 400ppm.

The absorption spectrum of CO2 shows it is opaque to longwave IR radiation, hence a greenhouse gas. It's concentrations have increased in the atmosphere, which slightly increases the amount of heat trapped on the planet. This in turn raises global temperatures. And wouldn't you know it, if you take the increases in GHG's and figure out how much additional heat is being trapped then compare it to observations you get a very good match.

Magic? No, physics.
Quoting 168. Misanthroptimist:


Not to mention that the claim that "the other planets are warming" is bogus.
I should mention that scientists do use Venus for raw comparisons with Earth. Mostly due to size and mass. It does have a extremely dense atmosphere with an unusual make up....

Venus is the second planet from the Sun, orbiting it every 224.7 Earth days.[11] It has no natural satellite. It is named after the Roman goddess of love and beauty. After the Moon, it is the brightest natural object in the night sky, reaching an apparent magnitude of −4.6, bright enough to cast shadows.[12] Because Venus is an inferior planet from Earth, it never appears to venture far from the Sun: its elongation reaches a maximum of 47.8°.

Venus is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is 92 times that of Earth's. With a mean surface temperature of 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F), Venus is by far the hottest planet in the Solar System, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. Venus has no carbon cycle that puts carbon into rock, nor does it seem to have any organic life to absorb carbon in biomass. Venus is shrouded by an opaque layer of highly reflective clouds of sulfuric acid, preventing its surface from being seen from space in visible light. It may have had oceans in the past, but these would have vaporized as the temperature rose due to a runaway greenhouse effect. The water has most probably photodissociated, and, because of the lack of a planetary magnetic field, the free hydrogen has been swept into interplanetary space by the solar wind. Venus's surface is a dry desertscape interspersed with slab-like rocks and periodically refreshed by volcanism.
Please, take the time to thank a service member this Armed Forces Day.


Semper Fi'



Quoting 148. MAweatherboy1:

I think we're gonna see another bust on the severe risk today. Lots of convection across the MDT risk area, and the RAP and HRRR, which are generally reliable, show more rounds of widespread convection firing later this morning and into early afternoon. That's not how outbreaks happen. Bob put it best in the blog. There's no resistance this year; storms are forming at will all hours of the day. No capping. The upper air setup is supportive of a moderate to high risk day, but there's no instability. Obviously if convection does wait longer to get going it could be a big day, but that looks unlikely to me.
What is a bust? Was this (May 9, 2015) a bust to your way of thinking?

How much "no instability" does it take to unscrew a light bulb? meaning what level (j/kg) of instability do you need for storms to form and feed on? 500? a thousand? Somewhere in between there probably. How much theta e? 340? The same too much emphasis on instability that causes over-predicting potential can make you miss the winds, the boundaries and other factors that, given enough instability, cause storms to form and rotate at the surface.

A week or so ago, one of the models you mention had a problem and was not seeing potential, so SPC had to forecast (potential) the old fashioned way. Ha. Good for them.
Read the full piece on Motherboard: The Most Important Models in the World

Simulating a Climate-Changed Earth Atop the Seinfeld Diner

NASA’s top climate scientists study some of the world’s most advanced computer models in the same building that Jerry Seinfeld once ordered cereal for lunch. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies is perhaps the nation’s premier climatology hub, and it’s where director Gavin Schmidt attempts to predict what, exactly, will happen as humanity loads the earth with planet­ scorching greenhouse gases.

In this Transmissions short, we’ll sit down with Schmidt, who has been director since 2013, when he took over for the grandfather of climate science James Hansen, to discuss what makes a good model—how they work, how accurate they are, and what kind of technology goes into making them what they are.

Quoting 166. hydrus:

Comparing the Earth to the other planets is ludicrous. There is nothing minute about the pollution and garbage we produce.

What truly concerns me is that we have had no human from the future come back and give us the solution to this...
CO2's ability to absorb long wave radiation is not swayed by a single Humans "belief".

Science is above the Din of ignorance.


184. oxnardprof
3:13 PM GMT on May 16, 2015


Quoting 166. hydrus:

Comparing the Earth to the other planets is ludicrous. There is nothing minute about the pollution and garbage we produce.


The graphic describing the carbon cycle shows

The carbon cycle graphic shows that industrial and land use add s 12 get carbon per year to the atmosphere. The larger numbers into and out of biomass and the oceans were in balance before the industrial era.

Adds 12 get carbon..?
Quoting 170. LargoFl:

I have a serious question, since deforestation is one cause of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, how many tree's have each person here that's worrying about global warming replanted?...talking about and worrying about GW isn't going to solve the problem one bit...do something about it in your own lil way..just a thought.


1. Not everyone can plant trees where they live. For example, most of the population lives in cities.
2. It wouldn't even make a dent. Just to counteract the current rate of deforestation would require turning huge tracts of arable land into forest on a daily basis. That doesn't even begin to address the additional CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere.
3. Trees are carbon neutral. Yeah, if you plant enough of them they can temporarily lock the carbon away but it will go right back into the system when they die. For a tree to actually permanently remove carbon from the system, it would need to be buried deep enough that it's decay products (methane, CO2 etc.) can't make it back into the system.
Quoting 190. JNFlori30A:


What truly concerns me is that we have had no human from the future come back and give us the solution to this...


That's a very interesting point, which leads to just two possibilities.

1) Man becomes extinct before inventing time travel.

2) Time travel is bunkum.

I sure hope it's 2.
195. yoboi
With all the technology we have this is going on.......

CLIMATE CHANGE expert Dr Benny Peiser has claimed some surface temperature recordings used as the basis for global warming evidence are GUESSED AT – including in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Link
Dear anyone-who-cares,
The hide button is not working.
Comments I hide reappear upon page refresh.
2015 WPAC season is now #1 on ACE units (96.1725) before May 31 with the 135kts at 15:00 UTC warning on SuperTyphoon Dolphin.

Link
Quoting 190. JNFlori30A:


What truly concerns me is that we have had no human from the future come back and give us the solution to this...



Took me three tries, but I got it right finally.
Quoting 196. Barefootontherocks:

Dear anyone-who-cares,
The hide button is not working.
Comments I hide reappear upon page refresh.


There's been a bit of a problem with the link function, too.
#195


See # 191

: P
Quoting 195. yoboi:

With all the technology we have this is going on.......

CLIMATE CHANGE expert Dr Benny Peiser has claimed some surface temperature recordings used as the basis for global warming evidence are GUESSED AT – including in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Link

Oh, no. I guy said something? This is terrible!!

IOW, your link is useless. Tell him to publish.
Quoting 160. SLU:



The computer models busted on the "Snowmageddon" forecast in January only 48 hours out so how on earth do we expected these garbage in - garbage out computer models to be accurate with their predictions of the impact of "climate change" 100 years from now?

Frankly speaking, most of this talk of the impact of "climate change" generations in the future is pure disinformation because no one knows what impact, if any, this NWO agenda will have on humanity so far in the future.

Furthermore, if "they" claim that humans and our shoddy treatment of the planet is causing "climate change" and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming? It is because the one common denominator in our solar system called the sun is the prime regulator of temperature in our solar system and the sun goes through periods of heightened solar radiation which heats up the solar system. By comparison, human induced "global warming/climate change" is so minute in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't even be up for debate in the manner in which it is because the vast majority of carbon emissions come from natural sources anyway.


This is a bunch of B/S and you know it SLU, I have the utmost respect for you in the tropical meteorology field, but you are wayyy out in left field in your understanding of climate change, either because you haven't gotten much education in it or you choose to deny its happenings. Whatever may be the reason, using other planets to justify earth's warming is a logical fallacy, either slippery slope or red herring. Venus a gas planet is primarily made up of CO2 and sulfuric acid, and has a runaway greenhouse effect, whereas Earth is made up of 78 % nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and smaller concentration of trace gases the most biggest is CO2, which is over 400 parts per million (ppm). The Sun is one part of the natural variation equation with is solar minimum and maximum, human induced AGW is another part of the equation to climate change and is a more significant part in this industrial day in age that we live in, vehicles and industrial power plants which humans invented release CO2 into the atmosphere. This is the fact and this is happening, if you cannot see this then you and many other denialists are blinded by ignorance and I hope that one day you will learn and come around to a more sound reasoning.
Quoting 193. Xyrus2000:



1. Not everyone can plant trees where they live. For example, most of the population lives in cities.
2. It wouldn't even make a dent. Just to counteract the current rate of deforestation would require turning huge tracts of arable land into forest on a daily basis. That doesn't even begin to address the additional CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere.
3. Trees are carbon neutral. Yeah, if you plant enough of them they can temporarily lock the carbon away but it will go right back into the system when they die. For a tree to actually permanently remove carbon from the system, it would need to be buried deep enough that it's decay products (methane, CO2 etc.) can't make it back into the system.


A more effective way would be to sequester carbon in perennial grasses, and introducing the grazers and their predators back into the ecosystem.

Of course, we would need to convert all those grains currently on rangelands, and that is not going to happen.

Link
Okay, so, If I must see, I shall respond...
Re: 178.
"Careful. Not every weird weather event is directly attributable to climate change. "
If "not every" weird weather event is "directly attributable," which weather events are?
How about we talk about the severe weather outbreak today, like what the blog is about? :)
Quoting 199. yonzabam:



There's been a bit of a problem with the link function, too.
Oh. Thanks. I am not experiencing that.
Quoting 230. Daisyworld:

Antarctic ice shelf could be gone within a decade

Michael Casey | CBS News | May 15, 2015

An ice shelf in Antarctica, which partially collapsed in 2002, is quickly shrinking and could be gone within a decade.

A team led by Ala Khazendar of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), found the remnant of the Larsen B Ice Shelf is flowing faster than before, developing large cracks and becoming increasingly splintered. Two of the tributary glaciers that feed Larsen B also are flowing faster and thinning rapidly.

"These are warning signs that the remnant is disintegrating," said Khazendar, whose team's work on the health of the Larsen B remnant has been published online in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

"Although it's fascinating scientifically to have a front-row seat to watch the ice shelf becoming unstable and breaking up, it's bad news for our planet," he said. "This ice shelf has existed for at least 10,000 years, and soon it will be gone."

The ice loss in Antarctica is among the clearest signs yet that global warming is already having a devastating impact on the planet. Most scientists blame the rising greenhouse gas emissions and subsequent rise in temperatures on unchecked burning of fossil fuels like oil and coal.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, with a temperature rise of 2.5 degrees C over the last 50 years. Along with Larsen B's troubles, scientists from the British Antarctic Survey earlier this week concluded another ice shelf - Larsen C - was melting from above and below, indicating it is being hit by warming surface and ocean temperatures.

Losing these ice shelves could have a cascading effect, since scientists see them as gatekeepers in this frigid region. Without them, glacial ice enters the ocean faster and accelerates the pace of global sea level rise. A study also out this week concluded rates of sea level rise were increasing, mostly due to melting ice in Greenland and West Antarctica.



Khazendar's team used data on ice surface elevations and bedrock depths from instrumented aircraft participating in NASA's Operation IceBridge, a multiyear airborne survey campaign that provides unprecedented documentation annually of Antarctica's glaciers, ice shelves and ice sheets. Data on flow speeds came from spaceborne synthetic aperture radars operating since 1997.

Located on the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Larsen B remnant is about 625 square miles (1,600 square kilometers) in area and about 1,640 feet (500 meters) thick at its thickest point. Its three major tributary glaciers are fed by their own tributaries farther inland.

The estimate of the ice shelf's life span was based on predictions that a huge, widening rift has formed near the ice shelf's grounding line and will eventually crack all the way across. The free-floating remnant would then shatter into hundreds of icebergs that would drift away.

"What is really surprising about Larsen B is how quickly the changes are taking place," Khazendar said. "Change has been relentless."

The remnant's main tributary glaciers are named Leppard, Flask and Starbuck -- the latter two after characters in the novel Moby Dick. The new study finds that Leppard and Flask have thinned by 65 to 72 feet and accelerated considerably in the intervening years. The fastest-moving part of Flask Glacier had accelerated 36 percent by 2012 to a flow speed of 2,300 feet (700 meters) a year -- comparable to a car accelerating from 55 to 75 mph.

"This study of the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers provides insights about how ice shelves farther south, which hold much more land ice, will react to a warming climate," said JPL glaciologist Eric Rignot, a co-author of the paper.

© 2015 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Super Typhoon Dolphin:
Quoting 204. Barefootontherocks:

Okay, so, If I must see, I shall respond...
Re: 178.
"Careful. Not every weird weather event is directly attributable to climate change. "
If "not every" weird weather event is "directly attributable," which weather events are?

There is a lot of literature out there on this topic: Link
College of DuPage Meteorology


Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 202 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 124 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 109 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
Quoting 208. pablosyn:

Super Typhoon Dolphin:


Fixe! Obregado.
Yesterday's Storm Reports from SPC:



This was more than I expected to see yesterday (but I'm no expert...).

Also, five injuries were reported:

3 injuries - tornado in Texas - "SAN PATRICIO LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE TO TPCO PLANT NEAR HIGHWAY 35/361 JUST EAST OF GREGORY."

2 injuries - winds in St. Peters, Missouri - "2 RECREATIONAL VEHICLES TIPPED OVER DUE TO HIGH WINDS AT LAKESIDE 370 RV PARK AND CAMPGROUND. TWO MINOR INJURIES REPORTED."
I spent all night, well, to 3:30 am Wet vac'ing the Garage as we got 4 inches over 5 hours here .

The Harley was un affected thankfully.



Super Typhoon Dolphin is a category 5 typhoon and it will continue to strengthen a little more before a weakening trend kicks in on Sunday night as it moves past Iwo To.

95W is weak and will not develop soon.

Read more...
Quoting 195. yoboi:

With all the technology we have this is going on.......

CLIMATE CHANGE expert Dr Benny Peiser has claimed some surface temperature recordings used as the basis for global warming evidence are GUESSED AT – including in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Link


" CLIMATE CHANGE expert Dr Benny Peiser "

Career and research interests

Peiser was previously employed as an historian of ancient sport at the University of Frankfurt.[10] ................................. Peiser acknowledges that he is "not a climate scientist" and has "never claimed to be one."


Link

since when did this blog be come a climate change blog ?




whats drop the climate change talk and whats talk about severe weather like the topic of the blog says
Taz,,,we can multi task,

Thanx.


Disregarding the level of activity or inactivity, I have a feeling something bad will come from this Atlantic hurricane season. A year that ends in a "5". We know how that turned out in the past:
2005: we know what happened
1995: Opal, plus new era of active phase
1985: Elena, Gloria, Kate, many other landfalls
1975: Eloise
1965: Billion Dollar Betsy
1955: Connie and Diane
1945: Cat 4 Homestead Hurricane
1935: Great Labor Day Hurricane
in other news i got me the ipad air 2 in gold 11 days after i got me my verizon iphone 6

my next saveing is a macbook air or imac and i am hoping too get one some time this sumer
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight


A widespread threat of severe thunderstorms is expected across the Plains states today through tonight, from parts of Nebraska southward to Texas. Risks will include very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and several tornadoes -- with a few strong/long-lived tornadoes possible.

For additional details, see the current Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO).
A multi-media briefing is also available.

No Valid Watches
Big tornado outbreak today likely for Central Oklahoma, a high risk is being considered for the area at both 1630z and 2000z outlooks.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161555Z - 161730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
ARE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN/NRN OK.
THE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT-TERM
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE IS MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 30 MPH....BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS CLUSTER WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ARE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S AMIDST A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
CONVECTION WILL BECOME SFC-BASED AND MOVE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIGINATING FROM MORNING CONVECTION...IN WHICH CASE A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. VWP DATA FROM VNX APPEAR TO
SAMPLE THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
SHOWS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR A SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT IS STILL LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN
PLAINS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW/S IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE.

..ROGERS/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 37409585 36399632 35659782 35169964 35620005 35989972
36759828 37609750 38179651 38079580 37409585
Quoting 217. Tazmanian:

since when did this blog be come a climate change blog ?




whats drop the climate change talk and whats talk about severe weather like the topic of the blog says


Tazzy-Taz, let's get one thing clear. WICC.

Weather Includes Climate Change.
Quoting 222. Camille33:

Big tornado outbreak today likely for Central Oklahoma, a high risk is being considered for the area at both 1630z and 2000z outlooks.



where you getting that info from i seee nothing in the out look about a high risk
Quoting 226. Tazmanian:




where you getting that info from i seee nothing in the out look about a high risk


I am friends with Steve Corfidi from the spc, I have inside knowledge on the situation.
Quoting 227. Camille33:



I am friends with Steve Corfidi from the spc, I have inside knowledge on the situation.



In 25 minutes or so, we will see if you are right.
Quoting 219. lobdelse81:

Disregarding the level of activity or inactivity, I have a feeling something bad will come from this Atlantic hurricane season. A year that ends in a "5". We know how that turned out in the past:
2005: we know what happened
1995: Opal, plus new era of active phase
1985: Elena, Gloria, Kate, many other landfalls
1975: Eloise
1965: Billion Dollar Betsy
1955: Connie and Diane
1945: Cat 4 Homestead Hurricane
1935: Great Labor Day Hurricane
You make a good point. Very Interesting indeed!
From Norman - their forecast risk area thinking has shifted (add: and "May" shift again.)
This is NWS Norman briefing for emergency managers issued at 10:30 cdt today

Excellent discussion related to their forecast area.
231. yoboi
Quoting 214. Patrap:

I spent all night, well, to 3:30 am Wet vac'ing the Garage as we got 4 inches over 5 hours here .

The Harley was un affected thankfully.






Are the billion dollar pumps not working???
and as far as we know there are no humans living on the other planets in our solar system, then why is it that the other planets are also warming?

Of all the denier dogma, I love this one the most .
The deniers have claimed for years our station sites are flawed , and the records are too short, but hey the deniers claim the temps on Neptune are rising. Just how they got the detailed records for Neptune is left unsaid. Here's two planets they never talk about , Venus. Why ? Because it's thick atmosphere is composed mainly of Co2, and the surface temps are hot enough to melt lead. While little Mercury , MUCH closer to the sun has ice in the shade at it's poles, and has no atmosphere.

If the temps on other planets are rising , it's because the deniers placed their thermometers next to the airport parking lots.
U should read more sport, yer ignorance wouldn't show so readily.

: )
Quoting 214. Patrap:

I spent all night, well, to 3:30 am Wet vac'ing the Garage as we got 4 inches over 5 hours here .

The Harley was un affected thankfully.






Dang... Seems like the Louisiana swamp is taking territory from humans over the last several weeks...
Quoting 156. WeatherConvoy:

What do you all think if the planet earth reaches 500ppm CO2 within in the next 25 years? I just want to open a discussion about this
Nothing will happen.
Storm Totals so far

Quoting 235. NativeSun:

Nothing will happen.


How can you,er,Scientifically prove dat un,..?



When in the last 800,000 years has the Earths CO2 been at or above 400 ppm CO2 ?




Surface low pressure intensifying out ahead of the cold front that will be responsible for rotating cells: Expected to see a dry line drawn on this analysis, but a second look at it appears the dew points wouldn't really warrant one.



This is my favorite color scheme:

Quoting 235. NativeSun:

Nothing will happen.


love it. nothing will happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Didn't the models show something trying to form about this time in May a few weeks ago. What is the blob in the S/W Carb.?
Quoting 190. JNFlori30A:


What truly concerns me is that we have had no human from the future come back and give us the solution to this...
. We do not need people from the future to find solutions. Do not need someone from the future here every time we have a problem. A brain or brains that are functioning the way they were designed to can accomplish almost anything...
Good Afternoon Class!
Quoting 224. 62901IL:



Tazzy-Taz, let's get one thing clear. WICC.

Weather Includes Climate Change.
Climate change is part of the weather, but this blog is about severe weather, and unless you have positive proof that an increase in CO2 has something to do with severe weather, lets drop it from this blog. Besides all the climate change talk on this blog will not accomplish a thing.
Nice looking tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of Africa. Thick SAL to the north.

Gee, seems wees hits a noive.

I can assure anyone, that any climate related news, or related other,..is welcomed here.

When we gonna see some published work from the dissenters, as your not skeptics, as your words sound like Scott Walker or the Wisconsin clone .


I got the science for yas though.



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution.

Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
Quoting 224. 62901IL:



Tazzy-Taz, let's get one thing clear. WICC.

Weather Includes Climate Change.
Climate change is part of the weather, but this blog is about severe weather, and unless you have positive proof that an increase in CO2 has something to do with severe weather, lets drop it from this blog. Besides all the climate change talk on this blog will not accomplish a thing





you been reported for being a smarty pants
Quoting 243. NativeSun:

Climate change is part of the weather, but this blog is about severe weather, and unless you have positive proof that an increase in CO2 has something to do with severe weather, lets drop it from this blog. Besides all the climate change talk on this blog will not accomplish a thing.



On the contrary, the climate change talk on the blog makes a clear division between rational minded people and crackpot greenhouse effect deniers. Also, it would be nice if those with nothing worthwhile to add would simply ignore the conversation they supposedly want so bad to not see. Then again, it would seem the swath of science deniers really only crave attention, even if it is only telling them they are so very, very wrong. Did I miss anything?
248. yoboi
The ole 2008 graph......

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKZ009-010-015-161700-
DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-WOODWARD OK-
1136 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEWEY...SOUTHEASTERN
ELLIS AND SOUTHERN WOODWARD COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1134 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARMON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOORELAND...VICI...SHARON...MUTUAL AND HARMON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 9958 3617 9968 3648 9922 3628 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 229DEG 40KT 3611 9951

$$

MAHALE
Quoting 246. Tazmanian:

Quoting 224. 62901IL:



Tazzy-Taz, let's get one thing clear. WICC.

Weather Includes Climate Change.
Climate change is part of the weather, but this blog is about severe weather, and unless you have positive proof that an increase in CO2 has something to do with severe weather, lets drop it from this blog. Besides all the climate change talk on this blog will not accomplish a thing





you been reported for being a smarty pants
Thanks Taz, I don't think you ever reported me before, it's an honor.
Look how clear it was in the GOM and Florida before Wilma struck.

Quoting 249. NativeSun:

Thanks Taz, I don't think you ever reported me before, it's an honor.


your welcome
Quoting 240. gulfbreeze:

Didn't the models show something trying to form about this time in May a few weeks ago. What is the blob in the S/W Carb.?
GFS still shows moisture being lifted northward, probably an active monsoon trough. Severe weather looks like it will continue into next week as well over the south central plains.

It's always amazing to me how dry on average Southern CA is, I lived there for 2 years and it was shockingly dry, and a drought wasn't even a present when I lived there. I lived east of San Diego and never saw lightning living there, and it seemed like an eternity waiting for the next rainfall event.

Even though the recent rains in the southern CA are far from drought breaking, people should be thankful in that region, because by this time of year rain is rare, Dr. Masters mentioned that the record wettest May on record in San Diego is 2.54 and the recent rains put them close to that record.

Here in Central FL, May is one of the drier months, with an average of 2.74, but recently we had an unusual amount of early season sea breeze thunderstorms this week in the area, and after 1.76 last night along with severe weather, we're up to 2.79 since Tuesday this week.

But despite this being a drier month in the dry season, the wettest May on record is more than 15 inches...

I'm glad I moved here, it's scary living in a place where 2.54 is a record rainfall total for a whole month.
Quoting 193. Xyrus2000:



1. Not everyone can plant trees where they live. For example, most of the population lives in cities.
2. It wouldn't even make a dent. Just to counteract the current rate of deforestation would require turning huge tracts of arable land into forest on a daily basis. That doesn't even begin to address the additional CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere.
3. Trees are carbon neutral. Yeah, if you plant enough of them they can temporarily lock the carbon away but it will go right back into the system when they die. For a tree to actually permanently remove carbon from the system, it would need to be buried deep enough that it's decay products (methane, CO2 etc.) can't make it back into the system.
that's very true and ty for replying, but each of us in their own way can find some way, in their Own lives..to reduce their own carbon foot print, plant a tree, drive less, whatever they can do...every little bit helps or if it isn't, then I really feel for the young ones and Their offspring in the decades to come...a change in the way of Life seems to be coming for the whole world and every living thing in it.
I'm quite concerned about the potential for tornadic storms along a corridor centered from Childress, TX, to Oklahoma City, OK, later today. Linked below is a surface analysis based on 11:00 am CDT observations, provided courtesy of John Monteverdi, meteorology professor and severe weather expert at San Francisco State University. Thunderstorms in the last few hours have left an outflow boundary from the Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas (purple line with cold-front barbs). The dry line now in far southeast NM should be surging eastward later today. The zone along and just southeast of the outflow boundary will be primed for tornadic supercells. The Storm Prediction Center is noting the potential for "strong, long-lived tornadoes" in their latest Day 1 convective outlook. Vertical wind shear and instability will both be very strong. We’ll be launching a live blog shortly, which will be linked from a banner at the WU home page.

--Bob H.

Surface analysis from John Monteverdi, SFSU (11 am CDT Saturday)
Hey guys I see some are discussing this upcoming wet weather in the W Carib and possible tropical development it may or may not carry

I know GFS had shown tropical system on this before (earlier during the week and last weekend) and a bit of you screamed Ghost storm more so when GFS sorta (sorta because it didn't really drop it it just shows it very very weak) dropped it but we should keep an eye on it because GFS has a very bad habit of showing storms in long to medium timeframe then drops it in the long to medium to short timeframe then bring it back again in the short to really short timeframe so eyes need to watch

Also GFS still indicates upper level conditions will be good for this system to slowly develop anyway

I've noted before other models have hinted on a broad area of low pressure in the area as well

Also looking in the news wise it's been discussed before a good amout of headlines that discuss this are as such

HEADLINES:
"Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Between May 20th & May 31st."

"One More Named Tropical Storm Still Looks Possible By The End Of This Month."

" Quick update on wet pattern for Western Caribbean and Bahamas next week going into late weekend."

"Could we see one more Tropical Storm for the month of May? It's Certainly possible."

"Wet weather pattern for the Western Caribbean. Could we see dos tropical storms for May? It's possible. It happened before."

Quoting 250. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Look how clear it was in the GOM and Florida before Wilma struck.




The seasons were a changing. And after Wilma past by, cool, dry continental air dumped into Florida. Lot's of frontal activity at that time.

Afternoon All

Interesting little feature developing east of Palm Beach County this afternoon. May provide some rain in an otherwise hot, sticky day along the east coast. Main sea breeze activity is to be on the interior west coast again today.

WU live blog on today's severe weather is now up and running . . .
Quoting 257. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys I see some are discussing this upcoming wet weather in the W Carib and possible tropical development it may or may not carry

I know GFS had shown tropical system on this before (earlier during the week and last weekend) and a bit of you screamed Ghost storm more so when GFS sorta (sorta because it didn't really drop it it just shows it very very weak) dropped it but we should keep an eye on it because GFS has a very bad habit of showing storms in long to medium timeframe then drops it in the long to medium to short timeframe then bring it back again in the short to really short timeframe so eyes need to watch

Also GFS still indicates upper level conditions will be good for this system to slowly develop anyway

I've noted before other models have hinted on a broad area of low pressure in the area as well

Also looking in the news wise it's been discussed before a good amout of headlines that discuss this are as such

HEADLINES:
"Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Between May 20th & May 31st."

"One More Named Tropical Storm Still Looks Possible By The End Of This Month."

" Quick update on wet pattern for Western Caribbean and Bahamas next week going into late weekend."

"Could we see one more Tropical Storm for the month of May? It's Certainly possible."

"Wet weather pattern for the Western Caribbean. Could we see dos tropical storms for May? It's possible. It happened before."


I really think that's it's still a possibility. Could we really see Bill before this month is out. I give it a 40% chance.
Quoting 250. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Look how clear it was in the GOM and Florida before Wilma struck.




Lol who could forget
Even here in Cayman before Wilma it was clear blue sky's and little wind nobody could tell that they was a cat 5 monster about to explode near us
But when the rain and wind started and wilma blew up we all pee our pants because hurricane Ivan was still fresh in our minds infact so fresh that that freshly made salad seemed 10 years old compared to the fresh memories
Infact I don't even think half the island was even close to getting back on track from Ivan by that time
GOES East in Rapid Scan today

Loop
Quoting 254. Jedkins01:

It's always amazing to me how dry on average Southern CA is, I lived there for 2 years and it was shockingly dry, and a drought wasn't even a present when I lived there. I lived east of San Diego and never saw lightning living there, and it seemed like an eternity waiting for the next rainfall event.

Even though the recent rains in the southern CA are far from drought breaking, people should be thankful in that region, because by this time of year rain is rare, Dr. Masters mentioned that the record wettest May on record in San Diego is 2.54 and the recent rains put them close to that record.
...
I lived in California all of my adult life until moving the the cool mountains of western Panama to retire just over three years ago. I also have a degree in ecology and conservation from U.S. Berkeley, and I am well aware of California's ecology, climate, and water issues.

Just as steady frequent rains are best for dry farming, California's Mediterranean climate with its pattern of rainfall ramping up in the fall, being heaviest in winter, and tapering off in the spring, is the most beneficial for California. (The winter rains are critical for mountain snow - I can remember 20 feet and more of snowpack at high Sierra ski resorts in the 1970's).

Late rains may help SoCal reservoirs a tiny bit, and green up peoples yards and gardens, but late season rains can also provide a burst of growth in wild grasses plus chaparral and brush. All this does is provide additional fuel for fires in the coming dry season.

And, of course, for much of California from LA north, most of the Sierra Nevada western foothills and east slope reservoirs depend on the mountain snowpack to keep them filled into the summer - and there is virtually no snowpack this year. A couple of inches of rain in May in desert ecosystems isn't going to do much good for California agriculture - the biggest user (~80%) of water in the state..

Here's the southern Sierra Nevada comparing May 8, 2015 with the same date in 2003 - an average snowpack year...
Quoting 261. HurricaneAndre:

I really think that's it's still a possibility. Could we really see Bill before this month is out. I give it a 40% chance.


I'll give it a 50/50 for now
Just to even odds
Quoting 245. Patrap:

Gee, seems wees hits a noive.

I can assure anyone, that any climate related news, or related other,..is welcomed here.

When we gonna see some published work from the dissenters, as your not skeptics, as your words sound like Scott Walker or the Wisconsin clone .


I got the science for yas though.



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution.

Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.


I like this one from Katherine Hayoe's TedX talk:



and a link to her talk "What if Climate Change is Real?"
Quoting 235. NativeSun:

Nothing will happen.
we will have a big party shoot off some fireworks to celebrate
Quoting 217. Tazmanian:

since when did this blog be come a climate change blog ?




whats drop the climate change talk and whats talk about severe weather like the topic of the blog says
Hey, Taz - it looks like the Live Blog will allow people who are strictly interested in the severe weather outbreak to focus on that.

So the conversations about climate, your new Apple gizmos and other things here won't detract from that.
Quoting 256. BobHenson:

I'm quite concerned about the potential for tornadic storms along a corridor centered from Childress, TX, to Oklahoma City, OK, later today. Linked below is a surface analysis based on 11:00 am CDT observations, provided courtesy of John Monteverdi, meteorology professor and severe weather expert at San Francisco State University. Thunderstorms in the last few hours have left an outflow boundary from the Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas (purple line with cold-front barbs). The dry line now in far southeast NM should be surging eastward later today. The zone along and just southeast of the outflow boundary will be primed for tornadic supercells. The Storm Prediction Center is noting the potential for "strong, long-lived tornadoes" in their latest Day 1 convective outlook. Vertical wind shear and instability will both be very strong. We’ll be launching a live blog shortly, which will be linked from a banner at the WU home page.

--Bob H.

Surface analysis from John Monteverdi, SFSU (11 am CDT Saturday)

You and the NWSNorman. :)
Quoting 230. Barefootontherocks:

From Norman - their forecast risk area thinking has shifted (add: and "May" shift again.)
This is NWS Norman briefing for emergency managers issued at 10:30 cdt today

Excellent discussion related to their forecast area.

New Tornado Watch posted.
Quoting 267. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we will have a big party shoot off some fireworks to celebrate


I volunteer to take part!!!
Quoting 195. yoboi 3:29 PM GMT on May 16, 2015
With all the technology we have this is going on.......

CLIMATE CHANGE expert Dr Benny Peiser has claimed some surface temperature recordings used as the basis for global warming evidence are GUESSED AT – including in the Arctic and Antarctic.


The members of the GWPF panel are: Terence Kealey (chairman), Petr Chylek, Richard McNider, Roman Mureika, Roger A Pielke Sr and William van Winjngaarden. Roger Pielke Sr. has expressed a denialist point of view. Richard McNider has published papers with Roy Spencer and John Christy, both of whom have denied that climate change is a problem. McNider will likely claim that the UAH satellite temperature series is a better indicator of climate change than the surface measurements, in spite of the fact that that the data does not measure surface temperature and is based on theoretical models of the atmosphere. For what it's worth, the RSS satellite data excludes most of the Antarctic, ie, poleward of 70S, because of the influence of the high altitude surface. For decades, UAH has included that data and created data to fill in over the poles, which their retrieval can not measure, using interpolation. I don't know about the other members.

Peiser complains about the data from the Arctic and Antarctic, when we know from satellite measurements that the Arctic sea-ice extent is rapidly declining at the end of the melt season. Once the extent approaches zero, we will be living on a different planet, climate wise. Get ready, 'cause our wonderful political systems have sold out to the highest bidders, who happen to be sociopaths that have no concern for the future, only grabbing their next billion...
Quoting 256. BobHenson:

I'm quite concerned about the potential for tornadic storms along a corridor centered from Childress, TX, to Oklahoma City, OK, later today. Linked below is a surface analysis based on 11:00 am CDT observations, provided courtesy of John Monteverdi, meteorology professor and severe weather expert at San Francisco State University. Thunderstorms in the last few hours have left an outflow boundary from the Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas (purple line with cold-front barbs). The dry line now in far southeast NM should be surging eastward later today. The zone along and just southeast of the outflow boundary will be primed for tornadic supercells. The Storm Prediction Center is noting the potential for "strong, long-lived tornadoes" in their latest Day 1 convective outlook. Vertical wind shear and instability will both be very strong. We’ll be launching a live blog shortly, which will be linked from a banner at the WU home page.

--Bob H.

Surface analysis from John Monteverdi, SFSU (11 am CDT Saturday)



I know dok, I am too.

I'm expecting a HIGH RISK at 2000Z.
I'm also watching and concerned for areas surrounding OKC today. LLJ is increasing per the latest sounding.
275. yoboi
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
131 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAKE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 129 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
UNION CITY...REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK...TIPTONVILLE...SOUTH
FULTON...RIDGELY...TROY...KENTON...OBION...COTTONW OOD GROVE...
CLAYTON...CLOVERDALE...TRIMBLE...HORNBEAK...WOODLA ND MILLS...
RIVES...SAMBURG...BLUE BANK...MOFFATT...POPLAR RIDGE AND SPOUT
SPRINGS.

TEH AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY SHORTLY. RUNOFF
FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
Any thoughts on tornadic supercells affecting the Wichita area? Stay safe if you're in Oklahoma for sure, sounds like a broken record.

And @bucsboltsfan, this is a great game thus far
Squares period & feet, kerr seven diamonds?
Funnel clouds on David Drummonds feed but his feed keeps cutting in and out.
279. yoboi
Quoting 272. EricGreen:

Quoting 195. yoboi 3:29 PM GMT on May 16, 2015
With all the technology we have this is going on.......

CLIMATE CHANGE expert Dr Benny Peiser has claimed some surface temperature recordings used as the basis for global warming evidence are GUESSED AT – including in the Arctic and Antarctic.


The members of the GWPF panel are: Terence Kealey (chairman), Petr Chylek, Richard McNider, Roman Mureika, Roger A Pielke Sr and William van Winjngaarden. Roger Pielke Sr. has expressed a denialist point of view. Richard McNider has published papers with Roy Spencer and John Christy, both of whom have denied that climate change is a problem. McNider will likely claim that the UAH satellite temperature series is a better indicator of climate change than the surface measurements, in spite of the fact that that the data does not measure surface temperature and is based on theoretical models of the atmosphere. For what it's worth, the RSS satellite data excludes most of the Antarctic, ie, poleward of 70S, because of the influence of the high altitude surface. For decades, UAH has included that data and created data to fill in over the poles, which their retrieval can not measure, using interpolation. I don't know about the other members.

Peiser complains about the data from the Arctic and Antarctic, when we know from satellite measurements that the Arctic sea-ice extent is rapidly declining at the end of the melt season. Once the extent approaches zero, we will be living on a different planet, climate wise. Get ready, 'cause our wonderful political systems have sold out to the highest bidders, who happen to be sociopaths that have no concern for the future, only grabbing their next billion...



All measurements have shown warming....UAH 6.0 is still in beta will be interesting few months....

Quoting 279. yoboi:



All measurements have shown warming....UAH 6.0 is still in beta will be interesting few months....

Yeah, 6.0 ain't gonna make it past beta testing. lol
281. yoboi
Quoting 280. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, 6.0 ain't gonna make it past beta testing. lol


Curious to why you think that....
That Amarillo storm is starting to get a nice couplet on it... the NWS should think about a warning!

283. yoboi
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
204 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 201 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF BRICE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LELIA LAKE... HEDLEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
285. yoboi
Quoting 284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Torcon 7 and Mike Bettes chasing today....
Quoting 282. WIBadgerWeather:

That Amarillo storm is starting to get a nice couplet on it... the NWS should think about a warning!




And it's in
Quoting 286. win1gamegiantsplease:



And it's in


David Drummond has a funnel on his stream.

Edit: He is having to get out of the way, little close for comfort.
New Tornado Watch is up!!
Soon as a tornado forms the camera falls on the floor and we can't see anything. Classic
Quoting 256. BobHenson:

I'm quite concerned about the potential for tornadic storms along a corridor centered from Childress, TX, to Oklahoma City, OK, later today. Linked below is a surface analysis based on 11:00 am CDT observations, provided courtesy of John Monteverdi, meteorology professor and severe weather expert at San Francisco State University. Thunderstorms in the last few hours have left an outflow boundary from the Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas (purple line with cold-front barbs). The dry line now in far southeast NM should be surging eastward later today. The zone along and just southeast of the outflow boundary will be primed for tornadic supercells. The Storm Prediction Center is noting the potential for "strong, long-lived tornadoes" in their latest Day 1 convective outlook. Vertical wind shear and instability will both be very strong. We’ll be launching a live blog shortly, which will be linked from a banner at the WU home page.

--Bob H.

Surface analysis from John Monteverdi, SFSU (11 am CDT Saturday)

we need to watch them t .storms in Oklahoma City, OK, later maybe a few tornadic storms later
link to any stream?
Drummonds got the tornado on his feed. Can only get short looks at it hiding back in the rain.
Good afternoon

It's a 76, feeling like 77, very rainy day here on the island today. After months of little or no rain, the skies opened up late this morning and it has been pouring since with very little letup. My trusty Orange Home Depot bucket has a total of 6.5 inches in it. The weather warnings are out warning of the dangers of the flooding problems. Our side street has become a river and the water is over the sidewalk now. I can hear the water pouring into our cistern. Guess the waterman loses out on us again! Wishing some of this reaches our friends in Puerto Rico!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
BREAKING NEWS

Super Typhoon Dolphin becomes the 3rd category 5 Super Typhoon of Season.



As of 18:00 UTC May 16, 2015:

Location: 17.2°N 139.8°E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb

Source: Link








Possible violent rain-wrapped TOG David Drummond's stream!

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Collingsworth County in the Panhandle of Texas...
northeastern Donley County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* until 315 PM CDT

* at 233 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Hedley... and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazard... tornado.

Source... radar indicated rotation. Confirmed by spotters.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Samnorwood... Lutie... Dozier...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A tornado has been confirmed with this storm by storm chasers. Take
cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or
outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3518 10057 3518 10029 3501 10019 3487 10072
3497 10076
time... Mot... loc 1934z 235deg 27kt 3494 10064

Tornado... radar indicated
hail... <1.00in


Mjg
Quoting 296. CybrTeddy:

Possible violent rain-wrapped TOG David Drummond's stream!


David needs to secure his dang camera.
Quoting 296. CybrTeddy:

Possible violent rain-wrapped TOG David Drummond's stream!
i saw a video on youtube of the storm
David Drummond- "It damaged the camera!" (referring to baseball-sized hail)
maybe some severe weather in the northeast!!
AccuWeather.com @breakingweather · 3 min Há 3 minutos
MT @NWSAmarillo: Confirmed #tornado crossed Highway 287 near Lelia Lake moments ago. Take shelter now! #phwx


Super Typhoon Dolphin
Everything in the WPAC.. even for how crazy it has been, the switch has been thrown for sometime now...For all of that, the storms have still been having a hard time getting better than a 7 for ADT.. For Dolphin, the adjusted is down. The models want it to strengthen some more. The sun has been down on it for 10hrs now, yet it's crazy cold cloudtops have not returned. Looking at the last 48hrs on MIMIC I'd say Guam took it worse than Rota, not just from eyewall but from that band on the backside with the winds from the south. Also Dolphin looks to be sporting a double eyewall. Once the eye wall replacement cycle is complete it could very well break a 7.


Tampa Bay area. Looks like we only have a few more days in the near term for the sea breeze collision to favor our side of the state.


Two circulations.
310. vis0

Quoting 208. pablosyn:

Super Typhoon Dolphin:

When you see nature at work with such power you wonder,
Where's the motor?
Where's the gear box?
Where's the fan? (w-belt or direct drive)
Where's the carburetors? (Patrap), fuel injector? (Labonbon)
Where's the shock absorbers?
Wheres the catalytic converter? Grothar)
Where's the AM-FM radio? (sar2401)..and the missing knob?
...yet the amount of horsepower is beyond numbers

don't ask as to the gas...be it 400+ppm (slowly but surely) or some majeekal device (the dramatic weird changes as 33% to 66% more as to 4 points of RRRr be it Cali, ATL SAL, Polar Vortex or High over S. GoMx leading to droughts in Brasil) from 2009-present with cooling going on more than not over the NE of USofA). Something is allowing more umph or allowing less friction so storms or wxflows can extend their range. Be it size, duration, direction formation(quickness).

The next idea (5th this year) i hope post in 48 hrs (after this round of severe). It will involve a way to create money for NOAA and the sciences, its very simple just needs the correct manner to "sell" it to youngins. Originally sent to TwCh, Mr. Gates (MS) & NOAA 1990s-2003.
SevereStudios @severestudios · 2 min Há 2 minutos
3:12pm - SHAMROCK, TX should be in tornado shelter!
Quoting 307. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:







Link

New Tornado Watch posted.
In the doughnut hole again.
Quoting 281. yoboi:



Curious to why you think that....


UAH's methodologies have been shown to have significant error when interpreting and correcting satellite measurements. There's even been a couple of papers on the topic. More damning, it was shown that if one were to use standard correction techniques then the UAH measurements end up agreeing with the rest of the satellite and surface observation records.

It's almost as if Spencer uses the current method on purpose for evidence to back up is oft debunked claims.

UAH 6.0 or 60.0 won't make a difference if they still use the same flawed algorithms. At the very least, your satellite measurements and surface observations should not be different by a statistically significant margin. If it is, then that's a pretty good sign that you're doing it wrong.
Can anyone share a live stream link for a local TV station in Oklahoma or Texas so we can follow the outbreak?
Quoting 316. skycycle:

Can anyone share a live stream link for a local TV station in Oklahoma or Texas so we can follow the outbreak?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec3nhejNBgk
Quoting 267. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we will have a big party shoot off some fireworks to celebrate
Sounds like fun.
Quoting 317. Luisport:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec3nhejNBgk


Thanks, that would be nice to follow. Does anyone else have a link to TV streams?
Umm, this photo just showed up on the Twitter "tornado" feed: Tornado damage in Germany's Black Forest (maps see earlier post #137).


severe-weather.EU ‏@severeweatherEU 11 Min.Vor 11 Minuten
Damage track of the F2+ tornado near Bonndorf, Germany on May 13 by Max Conrad! @reedtimmerTVN @SeanSchoferTVN
Dolphin going along on it's merry way!







IRI ENSO Forecast

CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

Published: May 14, 2015


CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabilities


Season La Ni%uFFFDa Neutral El Ni%uFFFDo
AMJ 2015 ~0% 5% 95%
MJJ 2015 ~0% 7% 93%
JJA 2015 ~0% 10% 90%
JAS 2015 1% 10% 89%
ASO 2015 1% 13% 86%
SON 2015 2% 13% 85%
OND 2015 2% 15% 83%
NDJ 2015 3% 15% 82%
DJF 2015 3% 17% 80%

I hope this comes to fruition with all regions having warm water with positive anomalies of 2 degrees celsius or higher. 80% chance of El Nino lasting into the teeth of winter, but it has to be STRONG to enhance the odds of a VERY WET winter in Cali.....I know a doubling of rainfall will not break the drought but it would be a good start!
Quoting 319. skycycle:

Thanks, that would be nice to follow. Does anyone else have a link to TV streams?

Still warming up for more live coverage later:
http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Saturday, May 16, 2015
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak, including some strong and long-track tornadoes a possibility, in central and east ND, central and east SD, west and south MN, west IA, west MO, southwest, central, and east NE, KS, OK, west, central, and northeast TX, west and central AR.

TOR:CON - 7 central OK
TOR:CON - 6 west OK, central and east KS
TOR:CON - 5 north-central TX, east OK, south-central NE
TOR:CON - 4 west and south MN, northeast TX, west AR
TOR:CON - 3 rest of area.

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in southeast NY, northeast PA, north NJ. TOR:CON - 2.
Quoting 322. barbamz:


http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/


Thank you!!

Brand new watch posted.
Quoting 323. ncstorm:

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Saturday, May 16, 2015
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak, including some strong and long-track tornadoes a possibility, in central and east ND, central and east SD, west and south MN, west IA, west MO, southwest, central, and east NE, KS, OK, west, central, and northeast TX, west and central AR.

TOR:CON - 7 central OK
TOR:CON - 6 west OK, central and east KS
TOR:CON - 5 north-central TX, east OK, south-central NE
TOR:CON - 4 west and south MN, northeast TX, west AR
TOR:CON - 3 rest of area.

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in southeast NY, northeast PA, north NJ. TOR:CON - 2.
Good grief, 7. And I'm in the middle of the hatched area in MCD 0666. lpl
Quoting 320. barbamz:

Umm, this photo just showed up on the Twitter "tornado" feed: Tornado damage in Germany's Black Forest (maps see earlier post #137).


severe-weather.EU ‏@severeweatherEU 11 Min.Vor 11 Minuten
Damage track of the F2+ tornado near Bonndorf, Germany on May 13 by Max Conrad! @reedtimmerTVN @SeanSchoferTVN


WOW!
I don't think I saw this posted, the SPC trimmed the MDT risk area at the 20z outlook. Morning convection significantly hampering what was previously the northern portion of the MDT risk, as I expected. I'm not overly impressed by what's happening further south either; too much convection. Quantity over quality. If some storms remain discrete we should still see some tornadoes over what's left of the MDT risk, with one or two possibly strong.

Quoting 313. HurricaneAndre:


New Tornado Watch posted.


All those storms look like tornados!
Quoting 314. opal92nwf:

In the doughnut hole again.

sooner or later the rains will find you opal..good luck
Quoting 328. HurricaneHunterJoe:


WOW!

Indeed; poor trees (btw, this tornado didn't hit any residential areas, apart from an uninhabitated old farm which was completely destroyed). Problem was: This third row of tornadoes in Germany in May hit on the evening/night of May 13, the day before a holiday in Germany: Ascension Day and as well: Father's (Booze) Day, lol. Because of this, coverage of the severe damage - especially in some severely affected neighborhoods in Bavaria (F3 tornado) where quite a lot folks lost their homes - was desperately slow, especially in international news. BBC had some news that morning of some "hail storms" and - maybe - an unconfirmed tornado in southern Germany but lost interest after that. Pictures and assessment of those tornadoes surfaced very slowly and scattered in local German News and German weather websites like wetteronline.de, the more as those tornadoes happened in different German countries (Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria). I've posted some pictures in here and some more in my blog but didn't come across of some decent coverage in English yet, sigh.
German (official) weather service will have to ramp up their public relations in future I guess ...
Line of storms closing into my area and looking very ominous outside.I can hear the thunder in the distance.
Quoting 318. NativeSun:

Sounds like fun.
we can call it Happy K6 Event
Quoting 333. washingtonian115:

Line of storms closing into my area and looking very ominous outside.I can hear the thunder in the distance.


I live off Bonifant Road about halfway between Layhill and New Hampshire. It has not rained hard but the thunder is enough for the dog to be under my wife's recliner and the skies have darkened that it could be midnight. Winds are sporadic at best.
Quoting 335. AreadersinceWilma:



I live off Bonifant Road about halfway between Layhill and New Hampshire. It has not rained hard but the thunder is enough for the dog to be under my wife's recliner and the skies have darkened that it could be midnight. Winds are sporadic at best.
Winds weren't really big with this line.Some 30mph gust but we see gust like that in the winter as well so nothing out the ordinary.
Quoting 320. barbamz:

Umm, this photo just showed up on the Twitter "tornado" feed: Tornado damage in Germany's Black Forest (maps see earlier post #137).


severe-weather.EU ‏@severeweatherEU 11 Min.Vor 11 Minuten
Damage track of the F2+ tornado near Bonndorf, Germany on May 13 by Max Conrad! @reedtimmerTVN @SeanSchoferTVN
Looks like there are two or three houses under that woodpile too -- maybe more. How did those folks make out -- hopefully under the lumber they were somewhat protected, but I sure would not want all those trees dumped on MY roof!
Quoting 336. washingtonian115:

Winds weren't really big with this line.Some 30mph gust but we see gust like that in the winter as well so nothing out the ordinary.


As you said, a few maybe 30mph gusts and it's all over. Other than the momentarily very dark skies and thunder, it was much ado about nothing at all like the warnings.
Gate-to-gates are insane on the latest scan of the storm near Elmer, OK. >200 mph.
David Drummond has himself another tornado near the OK/TX border
Large tornado reported on the ground near Elmer, OK. Might be rain-wrapped.
The wall cloud has incredible motion on David Drummond's stream.
Basehunters has a large tornado on the ground!!
The Elmer storm looks pretty insane on radar, definitely a strong to violent tornado.
MASSIVE wedge tornado on the ground on the Basehunter stream.
Quoting 342. CybrTeddy:

The wall cloud has incredible motion on David Drummond's stream.


Yeah he is for sure in the right spot.
Earlier, incredible.

Have to go and say good night, hoping it won't get too bad for folks in tornado alley tonight!
BTW, apart from watching amazing weather: It's a special pleasure for an European foreigner to look at all those names of villages and hamlets on the US (tornado) maps. A lot of fuel for imagination: some exotic names obviously were adopted from the native Americans, others reflect (original) landmarks (like: Whitewater, Blackwater, Whitedeer ...) or probably the names of first settlers, others remember European origins (like very small "Berlin", lol). And then there are some very weird ones like: Dead Women Crossing, Oklahoma. Huh, who wants to live in a place named like that? ;-) Nice title for a crime novel for sure!
David Drummond has the wedge on his stream. Large wedge tornado still on the ground.

Oh my god. Rotational velocity is at 106 knots, among the highest I've ever seen.

Still on the ground. Incredible velocities on radar.

Velocities have maxed out. Wow.
Taking a cross section through the debris ball shows debris being thrown upwards of 20,000 feet. There is no question this is at least a strong tornado, if not a violent tornado.
Super Typhoon Dolphin

Super Typhoon Dolphin
Last Updated May 17, 2015 18 GMT
Location 17.2N 139.8E Movement NW
Wind 160 MPH
Quoting 352. hurricanehunter27:



Wow.
wow is right!!
Large TDS on radar.
Wow that is a huge wedge tornado on David Drummond's feed. On the ground.
Quoting 358. violet312s:

Wow that is a huge wedge tornado on David Drummond's feed. On the ground.


Cone atm.
Cone tornado.

It looks like the tornado may be in the process of cycling.
David is extremely close to the cone tornado.
Might be trying to become a wedge again.

David Drummond just got some amazing footage.
Additional supercells are forming south of the Red River in Texas.

Gonna be a long afternoon if they remain discrete. The environment will only become more favorable as the nocturnal low-level jet kicks in.
It's moving into better deep layer shear in SW OK. Strangely enough, it was looking mostly linear about 45 minutes ago.
There were inflow winds of 100 mph earlier.
At least 1 farm swept away.

TORNADO WARNING
NJC027-035-162345-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0001.150516T2315Z-150516T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 714 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR BASKING RIDGE...OR NEAR MORRISTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISTOWN...
MADISON...
FLORHAM PARK...
EAST HANOVER...
CHATHAM...
MORRIS PLAINS...
MENDHAM...
MOUNTAIN LAKES...
MILLINGTON...
PARSIPPANY...
BASKING RIDGE...
BERNARDSVILLE...
AND HANOVER TOWNSHIP.

LAT...LON 4090 7429 4089 7434 4086 7432 4082 7434
4079 7437 4076 7437 4075 7436 4068 7445
4067 7445 4066 7443 4065 7459 4083 7463
4092 7427 4090 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 310DEG 21KT 4073 7450

$$

ROBERTSON
Quoting 368. TimTheWxMan:

It's moving into better deep layer shear in SW OK. Strangely enough, it was looking mostly linear about 45 minutes ago.

I thought the same thing, it's like a supercell broke off from the bottom of a line segment. I don't think that's necessarily rare, but it was cool to see.

The rotational velocities on that tornado were pretty incredible, up there with some of the highest we've seen in recent years. Doesn't look like it hit any major towns, thankfully, but we'll see what survey crews find in terms of assigning a rating.
Quoting 358. violet312s:

Wow that is a huge wedge tornado on David Drummond's feed. On the ground.
that is a big tornado


Not degrading at all so far.
Live Updates: Tornado Watches Issued in Six States; Several Tornadoes Already Reported
Published May 16 2015 06:34 PM EDT A tornado outbreak is expected now through Saturday night across a swath of the Plains states. Tornado watches have been issued for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota, and several tornadoes have already been reported. Large, damaging hail and strong wind gusts are also likely with the strongest thunderstorms.
A tornado watch is in effect until midnight CDT for much of central and western Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City, as well as one county in northwest Texas.
A tornado watch is in effect until 10 p.m. CDT for parts of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. This watch includes Watertown, South Dakota, and Alexandria, Minnesota.
A tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. CDT for most of western Kansas and a small part of southwest Nebraska. This watch includes Garden City and Dodge City, Kansas.
A tornado watch is in effect until 8 p.m. CDT for most of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles along with parts of western Oklahoma and west Texas. This watch includes Wichita Falls, Texas.
The guys chasing on 183 need to be careful, seeing some streams right in the path and its obviously rain rapped.
As of 5:30 p.m. CDT, there have been five reports of tornadoes. Here are some of the key storm reports from the risk zone today:

Tornado in Texas: At 1:12 p.m. CDT, off-duty firemen reported a tornado 10 miles north-northeast of Silverton in the Texas Panhandle. This was the first tornado report of the day.
Tornado in Texas: At 2:34 p.m. CDT, another tornado was reported in the Texas Panhandle. The tornado crossed U.S. Highway 287 near Lelia Lake, according to storm chasers in the area.
Tornado in Wyoming: Law enforcement reported a tornado near Highway 14/16/20 in eastern Park County of northwest Wyoming around 1:30 p.m. MDT.
Tornadoes in Minnesota: A brief tornado touchdown was reported near Rosen around 4:25 p.m. CDT. Ten minutes later, a tornado hit a farmstead north of Montevideo in Chippewa County, taking part of the roof off a building. Both locations are in west-central Minnesota.
Very large hail: Tennis-ball size hail (2.5 inches in diameter) was reported in a rural area east of Happy, Texas, at 2:36 p.m. CDT.
Very large hail: Baseball-size hail was reported just south of Goodlett, Texas, at 4:47 p.m. CDT. The same cell dropped golfball-size hail in Quanah, Texas, a few minutes later.
Tornado or hurricane?

Orienta, OK and Cleo Springs just got slammed.
Quoting 380. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tornado or hurricane?


Tornado
Norman OK might be in danger from this cell later tonight.
Quoting 380. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tornado or hurricane?


Tornadocane.
Storm near Snyder appears to be intensifying again. Whatever is on the ground is likely rainwrapped.
Quoting 385. CybrTeddy:

Storm near Snyder appears to be intensifying again. Whatever is on the ground is likely rainwrapped.
starting to rain at my house here.
David Butcher is punching the Bear's Cage.
The storm near Harold, Texas is the next one to watch carefully:

Quoting 389. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The storm near Harold, Texas is the next one to watch carefully:




Starting to tighten up quick.
Quoting 388. CybrTeddy:

David Butcher is punching the Bear's Cage.
David Puncher is butchering the bear cage.?


Storm has finished cycling and is coming back strong.
Our original supercell is back.

Original monster cell is ramping up again, just went tornado warned. Moving into Mount Scott, OK.
G2G velocities are ramping right back up on that original cell, 180-190 mph.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
718 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKC015-031-170045-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0077.000000T0000Z-150517T0045Z/
CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK-
718 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO AND NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES...

AT 717 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MEERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PEOPLE NEAR MEERS AND IN THE
WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE NEED TO TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDICINE PARK...BOONE...MEERS...LAKE LAWTONKA...FORT SILL...
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE ELLSWORTH AND WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE.

LAT...LON 3479 9877 3486 9865 3485 9862 3487 9862
3498 9841 3467 9835 3466 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 242DEG 36KT 3475 9863

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$
Wedge tornado on the ground with the original cell.
Bob Pack has a great view of the cell headed towards Wichita Falls TX.
Storms across Oklahoma are becoming linear, which should reduce the tornado threat some.
Sure got Quiet!!!
Bob Pack is chasing a storm headed toward Wichita falls Tx, supercell
Dolphin still as a category 5 super typhoon. O_O i'm shocked
07W DOLPHIN
As of 00:00 UTC May 17, 2015:

Location: 17.9N 139.1E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb



The one north of Wichita Falls is starting to ramp up again.
Twin circulations near Kimball, MN:

407. txjac
Quoting 402. trunkmonkey:

Bob Pack is chasing a storm headed toward Wichita falls Tx, supercell


Been watching several chasers for a couple of hours now ...
Do the still keep chasing in the dark?
NWS Twin Cities:
8:35 PM: Trained spotter reported #tornado 1/2 mile west of Kimball (Stearns Co., MN). Roof damage and sheet metal debris reported. #mnwx

(I don't know where all your fancy radar clips come from%u2026) This is heading straight for Saint Cloud, a metro area of 110,000 people.
Quoting 407. txjac:



Been watching several chasers for a couple of hours now ...
Do the still keep chasing in the dark?




Sure! They did this in hallam, greensburg, mapleton, usually when there's a lot of lightning illuminating the tornado but it is very dangerous to chase at night and it's not recommended.
Quoting 403. pablosyn:

Dolphin still as a category 5 super typhoon. O_O i'm shocked
07W DOLPHIN
As of 00:00 UTC May 17, 2015:

Location: 17.9�N 139.1�E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb





Kinda reminds me of Andrew in the visible loop.
Quoting 380. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tornado or hurricane?


Hurrinado or Torcane?
More records:

"Super Typhoon Dolphin has become a Category 5 in the last 12 hours, making it the second to do so in May for the first time ever in the Western Pacific. It is also the third Category 5 to form in the Western Pacific, the earliest date by far for this to happen. It is also the sixth Category 5 storm worldwide in 2015, more than 47 of the last 55 full years, and it's only May!".

Link

Source: ForceThirteen - Nathan - UK.
Quoting 403. pablosyn:

Dolphin still as a category 5 super typhoon. O_O i'm shocked
07W DOLPHIN
As of 00:00 UTC May 17, 2015:

Location: 17.9�N 139.1�E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb




That is not a cat 5
Close range video of the tornado near Elmer, OK

Link
415. txjac
Quoting 414. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Close range video of the tornado near Elmer, OK

Link


Is that an example of multiple vortices? (spelling?)
Most of you using GRLevel2? If so have any good placefiles, etc... to acquire?
Quoting 415. txjac:



Is that an example of multiple vortices? (spelling?)


It looks like it's probably one cirulation, so it's probably a single tornado. But I'm not particularly well versed in my knowledge of tornadic weather.
Quoting 415. txjac:



Is that an example of multiple vortices? (spelling?)

From 0:42 on? Yes.

Here's a more extreme example from the EF5 El Reno tornado on May 31, 2013:

Link
Man what a day. And it's still ongoing. And more is to come tomorrow. Get ready you guys. And be careful. Love you guys.
420. 882MB
Better view of the wedge tornado as it broke down into multiple vortices, txjac:

Link
422. txjac
Quoting 418. TropicalAnalystwx13:


From 0:42 on? Yes.

Here's a more extreme example from the EF5 El Reno tornado on May 31, 2013:

Link


Thanks TA13, got it now
Quoting 419. HurricaneAndre:

Man what a day. And it's still ongoing. And more is to come tomorrow. Get ready you guys. And be careful. Love you guys.


thankfully not a lot of tornadoes in populated areas... some people will define days without much widespread damage (so far) like this as busts, but if the West-Oklahoma tornado was moved 100 miles east and 50 miles north to OKC, it would have been an awful day that was remembered as a big storm day.
Quoting 418. TropicalAnalystwx13:


From 0:42 on? Yes.

Here's a more extreme example from the EF5 El Reno tornado on May 31, 2013:

Link



The 2013 el Reno tornado was downgraded to EF3
Dolphin is at it now. With its more developed core eye and outflow, it is a raging category 5 typhoon. A little more strengthening can happen before it starts to weakens as it moves into cooler waters in the next 24-48hrs.



Read more here


Most Oklahoma reservoirs are close to full.
Does anyone know what Flood Pool Elevation is for a reservoir vs. Normal Pool. In California I haven't seen Flood Pool listed on info for any reservoirs.
Quoting 427. nwobilderburg:

Does anyone know what Flood Pool Elevation is for a reservoir vs. Normal Pool. In California I haven't seen Flood Pool listed on info for any reservoirs.


I assume it means OK reservoirs have extra storage in case of flood, whereas California usually doesn't (or at least not as much as Oklahoma) because floods can be worse, or at least more widespread with the flat terrain of Oklahoma vs. the more varied terrain of California. Am I right in this assumption of why flood pool exists for reservoirs?
Quoting 427. nwobilderburg:
Does anyone know what Flood Pool Elevation is for a reservoir vs. Normal Pool. In California I haven't seen Flood Pool listed on info for any reservoirs.
Flood pool is just the excess capacity available in a reservoir to accept flood waters. Anything above that will affect that stability of the dam if it's not evacuated. Some Californis reservoirs use the term "flood water storage" so maybe that's what you're seeing rather than flood pool, but they both mean te same thing.
Quoting 428. nwobilderburg:


I assume it means OK reservoirs have extra storage in case of flood, whereas California usually doesn't (or at least not as much as Oklahoma) because floods can be worse, or at least more widespread with the flat terrain of Oklahoma vs. the more varied terrain of California. Am I right in this assumption of why flood pool exists for reservoirs?
Yes, you're right about reservoirs having flood water capacity. California reservoirs are no different than Oklahoma's in terms of needing excess capacity for flood waters. All reservoirs are built with a flood pool rating. Some will have much larger flood pools than others depending on the local hydrologic conditions.
Seems Dolphin is building an outer eyewall and an EWRC is underway. What worries me most, however, is that his projected path keeps getting bumped a tad further north the wider his turn becomes. His outer bands were forecast to affect Iwo Jima, but now he's pretty well forecast to go right over it; that or his eyewall will graze it. Either way, things are looking progressively worse for Iwo Jima... especially if Dolphin successfully re-establishes a mean eyewall with that massive weight he's got spinning around.

Stay safe everyone! Some spectacular severe weather today.
Quoting 423. nwobilderburg:


thankfully not a lot of tornadoes in populated areas... some people will define days without much widespread damage (so far) like this as busts, but if the West-Oklahoma tornado was moved 100 miles east and 50 miles north to OKC, it would have been an awful day that was remembered as a big storm day.
The majority of the tornadoes so far reported occured outside the moderate risk area. One-third of the reported tornadoes occured in MN in a slight risk area. It seems that the SPC concentrated the moderate risk area in Oklahoma, which makes sense, but it also seems like MN deserved at least an enhanced risk designation.
Quoting 424. Tazmanian:




The 2013 el Reno tornado was downgraded to EF3

But in reality, it was an EF5.

I don't know about the NWS, but I'll stick with accuracy over technicalities.
Quoting 431. LostTomorrows:
Seems Dolphin is building an outer eyewall and an EWRC is underway. What worries me most, however, is that his projected path keeps getting bumped a tad further north the wider his turn becomes. His outer bands were forecast to affect Iwo Jima, but now he's pretty well forecast to go right over it; that or his eyewall will graze it. Either way, things are looking progressively worse for Iwo Jima... especially if Dolphin successfully re-establishes a mean eyewall with that massive weight he's got spinning around.

Stay safe everyone! Some spectacular severe weather today.
Iwo Jima is only occupied by the Japanese military with between 300 and 400 personnel. They are using typhoon shelters that are rehabilitated Japanese Army concrete bunkers from World War II. These bunkers withstood many days of shelling from warships and multiple attacks by aircraft using 2000 pound bombs. They have resisted previous typhoons with very little damage and should do so again. If there's any place that's prepared for a cat 5 storm hit, it's Iwo.
Quoting 434. sar2401:

Iwo Jima is only occupied by the Japanese military with between 300 and 400 personnel. They are using typhoon shelters that are rehabilitated Japanese Army concrete bunkers from World War II. These bunkers withstood many days of shelling from warships and multiple attacks by aircraft using 2000 pound bombs. They have resisted previous typhoons with very little damage and should do so again. If there's any place that's prepared for a cat 5 storm hit, it's Iwo.


Yeah I knew that but it didn't occur to me that they'd pretty much be fine anyway. Although, with the amount of moisture he's carrying and a potential for him to still be a significant typhoon, they will be tested.
Quoting 433. TropicalAnalystwx13:


But in reality, it was an EF5.

I don't know about the NWS, but I'll stick with accuracy over technicalities.


The problem is, by that standard, there have probably been at least a dozen "EF5s" since the Enhanced Fujita was introduced that were never classified as such. The scale has only ever intended to assess *damage*, not maximum wind speed, which in the case of most Great Plains tornadoes, never directly affects structures at or even near maximum intensity.
Quoting 431. LostTomorrows:

Seems Dolphin is building an outer eyewall and an EWRC is underway. What worries me most, however, is that his projected path keeps getting bumped a tad further north the wider his turn becomes. His outer bands were forecast to affect Iwo Jima, but now he's pretty well forecast to go right over it; that or his eyewall will graze it. Either way, things are looking progressively worse for Iwo Jima... especially if Dolphin successfully re-establishes a mean eyewall with that massive weight he's got spinning around.

Stay safe everyone! Some spectacular severe weather today.


How do we know the sex of Dolphin?
Quoting 437. wxgeek723:



How do we know the sex of Dolphin?


no idea... wish we could see what the mascot it's based on looked like.. it could be female or male.
Quoting 436. FlyingScotsman:



The problem is, by that standard, there have probably been at least a dozen "EF5s" since the Enhanced Fujita was introduced that were never classified as such. The scale has only ever intended to assess *damage*, not maximum wind speed, which in the case of most Great Plains tornadoes, never directly affects structures at or even near maximum intensity.

The EF scale is not a damage scale, it's an intensity scale that rates tornadoes based on the damage they cause. Subtle but important difference in wording. Advancements in technology have made it where radar should become a method for rating tornadoes in the future, probably within the decade.
listening to Guam radio.. 60 percent of the island is still without power.
441. 882MB
Tornado warning for Joplin.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #87
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 16 2015
==========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (925 hPa) located at 18.6N 138.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.6N 138.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South of Japan
48 HRS: 24.3N 140.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 29.0N 145.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters
Quoting 147. flsky:

Are you on a computer, phone, tablet??






Regarding Comment 135:

Yes, I am on a computer.
Global warming ruining Scotland’s historic buildings

“Where Scotland sits on the globe, we are right in the firing line for climate change impacts.

“We have a maritime climate, we are right on the Atlantic coast, we are in the line of the jet stream, so we are very vulnerable ............................................. “We have 20 per cent more rainfall now than in the 1960s. And in some parts, like the north and west, in the winter we are getting 70 per cent more. These are quite major changes over four or five decades.

“The other thing happening is the temperature is rising. Scotland now has a five-week longer growing season than it had in the 1960s, so we are getting a lot more biological growth.


Link
Quoting 444. ColoradoBob1:

Global warming ruining Scotland’s historic buildings

“Where Scotland sits on the globe, we are right in the firing line for climate change impacts.

“We have a maritime climate, we are right on the Atlantic coast, we are in the line of the jet stream, so we are very vulnerable ............................................. “We have 20 per cent more rainfall now than in the 1960s. And in some parts, like the north and west, in the winter we are getting 70 per cent more. These are quite major changes over four or five decades.

“The other thing happening is the temperature is rising. Scotland now has a five-week longer growing season than it had in the 1960s, so we are getting a lot more biological growth.


Link


I can't comment on GW or I'll be banned !
Quoting 444. ColoradoBob1:

Global warming ruining Scotland’s historic buildings

“Where Scotland sits on the globe, we are right in the firing line for climate change impacts.

“We have a maritime climate, we are right on the Atlantic coast, we are in the line of the jet stream, so we are very vulnerable ............................................. “We have 20 per cent more rainfall now than in the 1960s. And in some parts, like the north and west, in the winter we are getting 70 per cent more. These are quite major changes over four or five decades.

“The other thing happening is the temperature is rising. Scotland now has a five-week longer growing season than it had in the 1960s, so we are getting a lot more biological growth.


Link


It's been blowing a gale for over a week now, here in Scotland, due to a jet stream loop bringing cold air down from Greenland.
Truth be told Dolphin didn t really look like a full fledged category 5, though some of the cat 5 s in 1997 (record season) also looked like they don t deserve this status. Anyway, we are now full 2 months and the rest of May ahead of 1997 in terms of Category 5 super typhoons for the W pac, that is brutal.
building.convection...s.w.carib.
Why doesn't anyone in here think the Geomagnetic reversal isn't the cause of some of the abnormal weather conditions the earth is experiencing these days? only carbon has an effect and nothing else!
Yeah right!
Quoting 449. trunkmonkey:

Why doesn't anyone in here think the Geomagnetic reversal isn't the cause of some of the abnormal weather conditions the earth is experiencing these days? only carbon has an effect and nothing else!
Yeah right!


Why doesn't anyone think that global warming is being caused by the lizard people beaming phasar energy from an invisible mothership to make it habitable for them when they decide to invade, and our politicians are in cahoots with them? You're all sheep.
SOI now past -15 of the 30 day average. Insane drop the last 10 days and will continue likely getting us to -20 of the 30 day average.

rainy season in e cen fl.??? not yet
The North Magnetic Pole is moving towards Russia while the South Magnetic Pole is moving towards South America. Whether this is the beginning of a complete magnetic pole shift or not will likely be disputed until the event actually occurs, however, the above graph clearly shows the annual movement of the north magnetic pole to be increasing exponentially. In addition, the last year data has been made available on this pole movement is from the year 2005. This suggests that there may be a reason why the governments of the world are not releasing any data past 2005. Is it possible the magnetic pole movement after 2005 would cause concern the governments would rather avoid? This gives credence to the global warming theorists, the only information being released by Governments is on Climate Change, and not one word about the shifting of polarities.

Something else worth mentioning and which may be significant is that the North Magnetic Pole has moved (about 12 degrees latitude and 18 degrees longitude) which is farther than the South Magnetic Pole (about 8 degrees latitude and 10 degrees longitude) during the same period of time. Could the inequality of movement between the poles be creating a potential for a spontaneous magnetic adjustment at some point in the future? Is it also possible that magnetic position data after 2005 could present an even more dramatic difference?

:)
yonza= bully
Quoting 450. yonzabam:



Why doesn't anyone think that global warming is being caused by the lizard people beaming phasar energy from an invisible mothership to make it habitable for them when they decide to invade, and our politicians are in cahoots with them? You're all sheep.


Looks like someone has been reading Alinsky's Rules for radicals:

RULE 12: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.” Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions. (This is cruel, but very effective. Direct, personalized criticism and ridicule works.)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
watch out more severe weather today!!