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Category 2 Typhoon Dolphin Hits Guam

By: Jeff Masters 11:54 AM GMT on May 15, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin blasted the islands of Guam and Rota in the U.S. Mariana Islands today as a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 110 mph. The eye of Dolphin passed through the channel between the islands of Guam and Rota near 5 am EDT Friday, with Guam experiencing the weaker southern eyewall, and Rota seeing the stronger northern eyewall. Andersen Air Force Base on Guam experienced sustained winds as high as 84 mph at 7:55 pm local time; a peak gust of 106 mph occurred at 6:58 pm. Rainfall amounts tallied 9.30" in a 12-hour period. No damage reports have come out of Guam yet, but the damage is likely to be modest, given that Dolphin stayed below Category 3 strength, and the stronger northern eyewall missed the most heavily populated island in the chain--Guam. The 2 am EDT Friday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Dolphin's winds at 110 mph, just below the Category 3 threshold of 115 mph, and the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated that the central pressure had held steady at 955 mb. The lack of intensification was due to the fact that wind shear has been in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, driving dry air into the circulation. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Dolphin had changed little over the past 24 hours, and no eye was apparent. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near 29°C (84°F), and warm waters extend to great depth along Dolphin's track, giving it plenty of heat energy to draw upon for intensification. Dolphin should be able to intensify to Category 4 typhoon status over the weekend as it takes advantage of lower shear and improved upper-level outflow. A strong trough of low pressure will recurve the storm to the north, and Dolphin may pass close enough to Iwo Jima on Tuesday to bring that island typhoon conditions.

The GFS model is no longer forecasting that a tropical disturbance near the Equator in the waters southeast of Guam (95W) will organize into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Typhoon Dolphin as seen from the Guam radar just before it failed. The eye of Dophin was in the channel between the islands of Guam and Rota, with Guam experiencing the weaker southern eyewall, and Rota seeing the stronger northern eyewall.


Figure 2. Dolphin chews Guam: Typhoon Dolphin over Guam near 03 UTC May 15, 2015, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

The last typhoon on Guam: thirteen years ago
As discussed in detail in Wednesday's post, the last typhoon to strike Guam was Typhoon Pongsona, which hit the island as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds on December 8, 2002. The last tropical storm to affect Guam was Tropical Storm Saomai of August 2006, which had 50 mph winds when it moved over the island. May is exceptionally early for Guam to be worrying about a typhoon; according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, no typhoon has affected the island in the months of February through June since record keeping began in 1945.


Video 1. Storm chaser Jim Edds is on Guam, and has been documenting the impact of Dolphin on the island via his Twitter feed with videos like this one.

The NWS in Guam is putting out special advisories and local statements on Dolphin.

A remarkable super high-resolution (every 2.5 minutes at 0.5 km) visible satellite loop of Typhoon Dolphin at sunrise on May 15 has been put together by The University of Wisconsin CIMSS group, using imagery from the new Japanese Himawari-8 satellite. A larger-scale view is available from NOAA, resembling a witch's cauldron full of boiling, poisonous brew! More info and hi-res infrared loops can be found at the CIMSS satellite blog.

Later today, Bob Henson will have an update on the severe weather potential for the U.S. on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the early morning surprise, Doc!
Good thing that Dolphin didn't strengthen much before it hit Guam, thanks for the update Doc.
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks doc
Thanks Doc....Its been lookin like summer in the West Pacific.
"Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Dolphin had changed little over the past 24 hours, and no eye was apparent"

May be true at the time it was wrote, but starting to look like it's about to ramp up. Radar presentation *was rapidly improving with each update. Wouldn't be surprised to see this a 120 to 130 knot storm once Rota enters the east eye wall of the storm sometime later today.

Thanks for the update, doc, good morning folks over there and best wishes to Guam, Rota and adjacent islands from Europe.


Saved current IR loop.

At present severe weather conditions are evolving especially in Italy with cold cut-off low "Carlo" plumping into all the hot and moist airmasses which caused the record heat in Spain earlier. The atmospheric scenery is interesting and complex as Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment) writes in its current alert (issued yesterday evening):

SYNOPSIS: A glance on the maps reveals ongoing disturbed flow pattern over Europe with three dominant vortices. One longwave trough is situated over NE Europe. Circling low amplitude waves cause a marginal eastbound expansion, but overall no serious propagation of this trough is forecast.
Another intense vortex approaches NW Europe during the forecast but won't have any direct implications on the European weather, despite assisting in a bulging ridge downstream, which affects UK and France during the day.
Convection-wise the most interesting feature will be a southbound dropping deep and symmetric cold-core vortex over France and over the W-Mediterranean during the night . This cut-off is a potent one, also visible on IPV maps, which reveal a deep tropopause fold and model cross sections show influx of low-stratospheric air. Yesterday's sounding of Brest offered a nice insight into this vortex with unusually low tropopause levels and a cold mid/upper troposphere. During today's outlook, this feature will interact with the moist and unstable air mass over the N-CNTRL Mediterranean, which will spark numerous organized thunderstorms. This area will be the main focus for organized DMC.
At lower levels, this third vortex will induce downstream pressure fall over N-Italy and a broad and temporarily strengthening LL depression evolves. This feature will push a cold front rapidly east, while assisting in a sharpening warm front over the CNTRL Balkan States. During the overnight hours, a second LL depression evolves over the Adriatic Sea which slows down any frontal displacement.
Elsewhere numerous fronts and LL depressions affect the European weather, but limited access to an unstable air mass keeps thunderstorm probabilities on a lower end side. ...

More.


Saved loop of the last 12h showing low "Carlo" moving over France into the Mediterranean. Source.

Live lightning records - howdy, a lot of action in northern Italy!
1.25" so far today in Daytona Beach with some areas over 2.5". Good to see the rains back.

Good lord, 2 1/4" rain dropped on us yesterday early evening---NE side of Houston (Kingwood area) in 40 minutes. Looked like how it was raining during Tstorm Allison.
Quoting 7. ILwthrfan:

... Wouldn't be surprised to see this a 120 to 130 knots storm once the Rota enters the east eye wall of the storm sometime later today.


The eye is already past the Islands. The radar view is hours old.
Dolphin looking better.

Today is also Peace Officers Memorial Day. I salute all my brothers and sisters in blue who have made the ultimate sacrifice. 44 officers this year to date. Rest In Peace Fellow Sheepdogs, You Have Done Your Duty, We Will Take The Watch From Here.
Record rainfall has already fallen in southern California. On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms brought locally heavy rainfall to the San Diego area. San Diego International Airport measured 1.51 inches of rain in just about 90 minutes. A total of 1.63 inches fell on Thursday at Lindbergh Field, making it the wettest day in May on record.

And more is on the way........

Link

Saved current loop of Dolphin hitting Guam and Rota.
Thank You Dr. Good news for Guam so far and great news that the storm will not hit the full stride (and potential major typhoon status) until the shear drops well past this Island chain. Here is the loop (from earlier) from the Japanese satt link you posted above from CIMSS. Remarkable clarity:
Many in Southern California are likely in for its wettest May ever recorded as some areas picked up near 2" yesterday with another 1" or so today!

Awesome news for Southern California who knows we could see more of these throughout the Summer with El-Nino getting stronger.

Speaking of getting stronger look at the Euro. This is just insane with what these models are showing for El-Nino! Never seen the models go so high with a Enso event before.

Euro


This could also end up being the strongest suppression ever recorded across the Atlantic. Main reason why NC State is forecasting 4 to 6 named storms.
Quoting 9. StormTrackerScott:

1.25" so far today in Daytona Beach with some areas over 2.5". Good to see the rains back.




What "official" reporting station you're going by ?? Daytona Int'l has only had 0.5 recorded around 07:00 this morning and barely a trace yesterday....
A moderator posted an SST chart for the Guam area a few days ago and it clearly showed an much warmer pool of water right around the island of Guam. Based on the current presentation of the storm, and it's passage between two Islands which did not slow the core down much, it is taking nice advantage of the clear path through the warmer SST's as the shear drops; looks like the best for this storm is yet to come.

It also looks like the backside of the storm is going to bring more strong squalls to Guam during the course of the day if the storm continues to intensify.

Quoting 11. MahFL:



The eye is already past the Islands. The radar view is hours old.


Yeah I see that now, would have been interesting to see how the structure improved after the radar went down. I'd imagine Rota had higher winds than the 84mph gust recorded at the air force base in Guam.
Thanks Jeff. Today marks the official start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, & in short, we're liable to see an above normal year ACE wise, given the ongoing El Nino.... However, I don't think we'll be quite as active as last year w/ total ACE probably closer to 150-175 units given that the most active years on record were largely biased towards ENSO neutral and that significant El Ninos can stifle activity in the heart of the Eastern Pacific basin, (especially outside the peak of the hurricane season) w/ higher near-equatorial SSTs dragging the ITCZ equatorward in the east Pacific and focusing upward motion towards the central equatorial Pacific... We'll likely have to wait until July for climo to become more favorable to see the southwestward shift in genesis & consequent longer-lived TCs (as is typical in +ENSO events) begin to significantly the ACE totals...

MJJASON Moderate-Strong El Nino Eastern Pacific SSTs (Top left), 1000mb vector wind anomalies overlaid with ITCZ position (Top right), Surface Precipitation rate (Bottom left), .2101 sigma Upper Level Divergence (Bottom right). Notice how in spite of the formidable El Nino, the Eastern Pacific basin is actually drier than normal in this ENSO base state. ENSO neutral supplemented with a favorable warm multidecadal PDO background state is generally the most conducive for producing the highest ACE years in the eastern Pacific & of course a cold AMO doesn't hurt either...



Here are the updated daily climatological ACE & NS/H/MH/C5 graphics since reliable intensity data on the Eastern Pacific began in 1970. The climatalogical peak of the eastern Pacific hurricane season occurs on average about 2-3 weeks in advance of the Atlantic, on August 24th.



Quoting 23. Webberweather53:

Thanks Jeff. Today marks the official start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, & in short, we're liable to see an above normal year ACE wise, given the ongoing El Nino.... However, I don't think we'll be quite as active as last year w/ total ACE probably closer to 150-175 units given that the most active years on record were largely biased towards ENSO neutral and that significant El Ninos can stifle activity in the heart of the Eastern Pacific basin, (especially outside the peak of the hurricane season) w/ higher near-equatorial SSTs dragging the ITCZ equatorward in the east Pacific and focusing upward motion towards the central equatorial Pacific... We'll likely have to wait until July for climo to become more favorable to see the southwestward shift in genesis & consequent longer-lived TCs (as is typical in +ENSO events) begin to significantly the ACE totals...

MJJASON Moderate-Strong El Nino Eastern Pacific SSTs (Top left), 1000mb vector wind anomalies overlaid with ITCZ position (Top right), Surface Precipitation rate (Bottom left), .2101 sigma Upper Level Divergence (Bottom right). Notice how in spite of the formidable El Nino, the Eastern Pacific basin is actually drier than normal in this ENSO base state. ENSO neutral supplemented with a favorable warm multidecadal PDO background state is generally the most conducive for producing the highest ACE years in the eastern Pacific & of course a cold AMO doesn't hurt either...



Here are the updated daily climatological ACE & NS/H/MH/C5 graphics since reliable intensity data on the Eastern Pacific began in 1970. The climatalogical peak of the eastern Pacific hurricane season occurs on average about 2-3 weeks in advance of the Atlantic, on August 24th.






I see your finally getting off the fence and getting in line with the Strong El-Nino idea. Anybody who has doubts now then I don't know what else to say as nearly every model is keying on atleast a 2C Nino.
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Daytona Beach International picked up 1.25". You should look before you post. If you are going to try and troll my post you need to do a better job.

Look for yourself Link




Some nice rains this morning on the east coast. We should get some this afternoon on the west coast. Who got 2.5" today? Lucky guys for May.
Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:



I see your finally getting off the fence and getting in line with the Strong El-Nino idea. Anybody who has doubts now then I don't know what else to say as nearly every model is keying on atleast a 2C Nino.


I'm not getting off the fence at all, I had to expand the sample size of the years analyzed (moderate El Ninos) because there aren't many ENSO events to work w/ since 1970 & because it's quite apparent that this event will end up being closer to strong territory than weak...
Quoting 26. Webberweather53:



I'm not getting off the fence at all, I had to expand the sample size of the years analyzed (moderate El Ninos) because there aren't many ENSO events to work w/ since 1970 & because it's quite apparent that this event will end up being closer to strong territory than weak...


Good post about E-Pac as I was thinking the samething as sometimes Strong Nino's could have the adverse effect on the E-Pac Season. I still think active more like 13 to 15 systems though. What are your thoughts?
Quoting 25. Bucsboltsfan:



Some nice rains this morning on the east coast. We should get some this afternoon on the west coast. Who got 2.5" today? Lucky guys for May.


2.6" so far in Osteen. Heavy band of rain across southern Volusia County this morning already 1.25 in Daytona, and .20 up the road in Sanford so far.

Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:



I see your finally getting off the fence and getting in line with the Strong El-Nino idea. Anybody who has doubts now then I don't know what else to say as nearly every model is keying on atleast a 2C Nino.


IMO, as a weather forecaster his credentials would be questioned if he had publicly been forecasting every day a strong El Niño for the past two years.
Remnant of Larsen B Ice Shelf, about half the size of Rhode Island, is expected to break apart completely around the year 2020, adding to sea level rises


Link
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30.
Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2015 is as follows:

Andres Marty
Blanca Nora
Carlos Olaf
Dolores Patricia
Enrique Rick
Felicia Sandra
Guillermo Terry
Hilda Vivian
Ignacio Waldo
Jimena Xina
Kevin York
Linda Zelda
It looks like there could be a possible tornado outbreak in western kansas and oklahoma kinda like last weekend. The question is, will the early morning convection clear out and will there be enough destabilization behind it throughout the day? This has been a common theme this year.
Quoting 34. Torito:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30.
Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2015 is as follows:

Andres Marty
Blanca Nora
Carlos Olaf
Dolores Patricia
Enrique Rick
Felicia Sandra
Guillermo Terry
Hilda Vivian
Ignacio Waldo
Jimena Xina
Kevin York
Linda Zelda




Ohhhh, jemima's the name of a syrup (aunt jemima's), not jimena otherwise i would've said "wow, she really punishes people for not liking her syrup" back in 2009! XD
Quoting 33. Guysgal:

Remnant of Larsen B Ice Shelf, about half the size of Rhode Island, is expected to break apart completely around the year 2020, adding to sea level rises


Link
Yep...The entire Cryosphere ( with a few exceptions ) will melt exponentially faster now..Unless something on a global scale shifts this world warming. The active layer has been melting at an increased rate for at least 25 years. Inactive layers ( which we know less about ) are now starting to feel the melt. Parts of Eastern Antarctica have been frozen for over a million years, and the Earths warming will have an affect, but to what degree is unknown....WIKI Cryosphere...Link
Quoting 36. TimTheWxMan:




Ohhhh, jemima's the name of a syrup (aunt jemima's), not jimena otherwise i would've said "wow, she really punishes people for not liking her syrup" back in 2009! XD


I'm finding the name "Guillermo" funny myself.

NHC pronunciation: gee-YER-mo...

Haha.

Without that I thought it would be something along the lines of "gorilla"...
Thanks dok!
Good Morning El Nino!

How much time before they "officially" declare that you are happening? Seems like the weather in some areas has been "Nino-ish" since 2014.

Quoting 35. TimTheWxMan:

It looks like there could be a possible tornado outbreak in western kansas and oklahoma kinda like last weekend. The question is, will the early morning convection clear out and will there be enough destabilization behind it throughout the day? This has been a common theme this year.


Yup.

Quoting 36. TimTheWxMan:





Ohhhh, jemima's the name of a syrup (aunt jemima's), not jimena otherwise i would've said "wow, she really punishes people for not liking her syrup" back in 2009! XD


I love syrup.
Quoting 29. Patrap:




Lots of deep convection.

Quoting 40. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning El Nino!

How much time before they "officially" declare that you are happening? Seems like the weather in some areas has been "Nino-ish" since 2014.




I thought they already had?
Quoting 31. Bucsboltsfan:



IMO, as a weather forecaster his credentials would be questioned if he had publicly been forecasting every day a strong El Niño for the past two years.
Even a broken clock is correct twice a day and occasionally the sun shines on a dog's rear end... I throw forecasts like the one you mentioned into the same category as the Accuweather 30-day forecasts: Slightly better than haphazard guessing.
.


Ten years ago today, the night sky over southern California turned blood red. "During the night and morning of May 14/15, 2005, an extreme geomagnetic storm sparked displays of the northern lights across much of the United States," recalls astrophotographer Dennis Mammana, "and we desert rats got quite a show." The display Mammana witnessed occured during the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, which was fairly strong. In those days, low-latitude auroras were not uncommon. Indeed, in the early 2000s, the staff of spaceweather.com witnessed Northern Lights more than half a dozen times from California's Sierra Nevada mountains.

since its quiet...thanks dr masters
Quoting 43. SouthTampa:

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day and occasionally the sun shines on a dog's rear end... I throw forecasts like the one you mentioned into the same category as the Accuweather 30-day forecasts: Slightly better than haphazard guessing.
Yep..Some aspects of forecasting especially as of recently have gone off the edge..When an agency predicts between 9 and 16 named storms for a season, the forecast is for all intents and purposes worthless. A ten day forecast can have value...If they predict ten days of rain for the corn belt , it is very significant, ten sunny hot days for parts of the Sahara, the value of forecast is nil. NC predicts 4 to 6 named storms this season, it only takes one, but that forecast has value, and if true, even more.
Quoting 45. WaterWitch11:

Ten years ago today, the night sky over southern California turned blood red. "During the night and morning of May 14/15, 2005, an extreme geomagnetic storm sparked displays of the northern lights across much of the United States," recalls astrophotographer Dennis Mammana, "and we desert rats got quite a show." The display Mammana witnessed occured during the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, which was fairly strong. In those days, low-latitude auroras were not uncommon. Indeed, in the early 2000s, the staff of spaceweather.com witnessed Northern Lights more than half a dozen times from California's Sierra Nevada mountains.

since its quiet...thanks dr masters
Neat stuff 11...We had one in South Florida March of 89...My neighbor called, and I thought she was nuts, then I went outside.
Quoting 33. Guysgal:

Remnant of Larsen B Ice Shelf, about half the size of Rhode Island, is expected to break apart completely around the year 2020, adding to sea level rises


Unless I missed it, the article does not say how much sea rise. Also I think it meant the glaciers behind it would enter the sea quicker. Something half the size of Rhode Island melting is not going to affect sea level's much.
Very rare rain delays at both the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres games last night:

The Rockies were rained out three times during their most recent homestand, including a game with the Dodgers last Saturday that was rescheduled for June 2 at Coors Field.

"That cloud has been following us everywhere we go," Gonzalez said with a laugh. "We've had to battle against other teams and weather conditions and rain delays, so it's hard to keep your body in the game. To stay in the clubhouse for an hour and a half, I'm sure it affects the other team, too. You just try to keep your body and your mind in the game."

Wilin Rosario also went deep for the last-place Rockies in the opener of a four-game series between the top and bottom teams in the NL West.

Play was halted for 85 minutes during the sixth inning at a ballpark that hasn't had a weather postponement in 15 years.


SAN DIEGO -- Once the San Diego Padres got to bat, Cory Spangenberg got to show what he can do.

Spangenberg had his first two-homer game and Derek Norris homered, tripled and drove in five runs to lead the San Diego Padres to an 8-3 victory Thursday night against the Washington Nationals in a game delayed for nearly two hours by rain.

The game was held up for 1 hour, 56 minutes in the first inning, just the fifth rain delay since Petco Park opened in 2004. It had rained earlier Thursday, but the tarp came off about an hour before first pitch. Rain started falling during the pregame managers' meeting, and crew chief Gerry Davis sent the players off after Ross struck out leadoff batter Denard Span.
Quoting 14. yoboi:

Record rainfall has already fallen in southern California. On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms brought locally heavy rainfall to the San Diego area. San Diego International Airport measured 1.51 inches of rain in just about 90 minutes. A total of 1.63 inches fell on Thursday at Lindbergh Field, making it the wettest day in May on record.

And more is on the way........

Link


Unfortunately...

1. The rain is affecting only a small limited part of California.
2. It's not nearly enough to alleviate the drought
3. The parched ground means a lot of that rain is just running off instead of being absorbed (hence the flash flooding)

Back in December it wast estimated that California needs 11 trillion gallons of water to alleviate the drought. That's about 25 gallons of water for every square meter of surface area in California, or about 4 inches of rain.

That's not just 4 inches in San Diego or Los Angeles. That's 4 inches of rain on every single square meter of California. And that's assuming that said rain falls in such a way that it is actually absorbed.

So that rain in San Diego is literally just a drop in the bucket. It going to take a lot more than that to even put a dent in the drought.
Quoting 41. 62901IL:



Yup.



I love syrup.

Lots of deep convection.




Yes, you hardly ever see black on those sat pics. -90 F cloud tops.
Quoting 51. Xyrus2000:



So that rain in San Diego is literally just a drop in the bucket. It going to take a lot more than that to even put a dent in the drought.


I don't recall anyone saying this rain is a drought buster in California. TX on the other hand is happy, cattle markets are brisk again, farmers are restocking, grass meadows are growing.
Quoting 52. MahFL:



Yes, you hardly ever see black on those sat pics. -90 F cloud tops.


mmmhmmmm.
Quoting 53. MahFL:


I don't recall anyone saying this rain is a drought buster in California. TX on the other hand is happy, cattle markets are brisk again, farmers are restocking, grass meadows are growing.


According to GFS the only chance for any rain in CA is 90 hours out... and its not much... Its just going to get worse from here, it looks like.

All I could find...
More good news record antarctic sea ice could close down only way to re supply scientific station.Has been there many years and some models forecasting record global sea ice!Really great news also Texas perma drought forecast bit the dust with a cooler than normal summer in plains and another record crop year on the way!Enjoy your day everyone.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters. Good Morning Class!

Looks like Round #2 of rain is underway for Soo Cal........Quite the story last night.....San Diego's Lindbergh Field Airport is the official weather keeping location for San Diego CA. They received .71 inch of rain in 9 minutes late last night and 1.5 inches for an hour. These totals may get 2015 in the record books as the wettest May on record in San Diego since records started being kept in 1850.......will depend on how much falls today.



If the below forecast rain amount does fall, it will set a new record for May.........May 2015 is already in the Top 5 Wettest from yesterday's totals alone.

Quoting 34. Torito:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30.
Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2015 is as follows:

Andres Marty
Blanca Nora
Carlos Olaf
Dolores Patricia
Enrique Rick
Felicia Sandra
Guillermo Terry
Hilda Vivian
Ignacio Waldo
Jimena Xina
Kevin York
Linda Zelda
Waldo is as bad as Fifi...Which was retired due to a horrendous death toll and devastation......Its like having a massive earthquake named Bambi
Quoting 53. MahFL:



I don't recall anyone saying this rain is a drought buster in California. TX on the other hand is happy, cattle markets are brisk again, farmers are restocking, grass meadows are growing.
Yep. And that 2011 Texas drought only ran Americans something like $100 billion in direct and indirect costs: higher food prices, FCIC make-goods, shuttered farms and ranches, lost jobs, lower productivity, and the like.

No big deal at all, really.

(Life is so much easier when one ignores both the details and the consequences, isn't it?)
Quoting 58. hydrus:
Waldo is as bad as Fifi...Which was retired due to a horrendous death toll and devastation......Its like having a massive earthquake named Bambi


How bout Felicia?... That's just evil!
Quoting 51. Xyrus2000:



Unfortunately...

1. The rain is affecting only a small limited part of California.
2. It's not nearly enough to alleviate the drought
3. The parched ground means a lot of that rain is just running off instead of being absorbed (hence the flash flooding)

Back in December it wast estimated that California needs 11 trillion gallons of water to alleviate the drought. That's about 25 gallons of water for every square meter of surface area in California, or about 4 inches of rain.

That's not just 4 inches in San Diego or Los Angeles. That's 4 inches of rain on every single square meter of California. And that's assuming that said rain falls in such a way that it is actually absorbed.

So that rain in San Diego is literally just a drop in the bucket. It going to take a lot more than that to even put a dent in the drought.


No drought buster for sure but it will help Sooo Cal, hopefully that 4" per square meter will come if El Nino keeps getting stronger and lasts longer........Im just VERY HAPPY to get any rain! I live in San Diego County in the mountains and these rains will help. Bring some more today!
Quoting 33. Guysgal:

Remnant of Larsen B Ice Shelf, about half the size of Rhode Island, is expected to break apart completely around the year 2020, adding to sea level rises


Link
Note though that Larsen B is a FLOATING ice shelf, so its contribution to sea level is already in the books. However, its breakup will free up the glaciers that feed it to dump more land ice into the sea, and that ice will add to sea level. The resultant surge in those glaciers could break some records.
Quoting 40. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning El Nino!

How much time before they "officially" declare that you are happening? Seems like the weather in some areas has been "Nino-ish" since 2014.



Did you see the previous blog?

A Rare Mid-Year El Niño Event Is Strengthening

With the rate they've been putting out blog posts, it's hard to keep up! This was the fourth active blog yesterday.
For today in Sooo Cal:


Area Forecast Discussion Link to RSS feed
• Go Back • Print Friendly • Version: Latest Older • Font: A A A A •
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FXUS66 KSGX 151053
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
353 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE
5500 TO 6000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AREAS OF MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE
THE COOL WEATHER WITH AREAS OF COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

AT 3 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS. AN UPDATED RAINFALL
TOTALS SUMMARY WAS ISSUED AT 215 AM. LINDBERGH FIELD IS THE WINNER
SO FAR AT 1.63 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THIS ACTUALLY FELL
IN A SHORT PERIOD AND CAUSED FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE
SAN DIEGO. THE 1.63 WAS ALSO A RECORD FOR LINDBERGH FOR THE
14TH...AND BLEW THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.40 INCHES SET IN 1884 OUT
OF THE WATER.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTHWEST CA FOR
TODAY. THE 15/0900 UTC HI-RES HRRR SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS VENTURE OUT ON THEIR
MORNING COMMUTE. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE SO DEEP IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE DESERTS. LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UNSTABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR NEWER
BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PRONE AREAS. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND GREATEST AREAS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SAN DIEGO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS THIS
MORNING ARE NEAR 5500 FT...AND WILL CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR
6500 FT. HIGHS TODAY WILL CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AND 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

...ADDITIONAL FORECAST PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...
DESERTS.............0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES
COAST AND VALLEYS...0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...........0.50 TO 1.75 INCHES

...ADDITIONAL FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...
5500 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 2 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...2 TO 4 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....4 TO 6 INCHES

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER VERY WEAK RIDGING. HOWEVER...A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS CONTINUING
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL CA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN CA...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. CURRENTLY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE 15/0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES IT SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...PLACING THE
LOW OVER SW CA FRIDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK.

And rain totals thus far:


PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
600 AM PDT FRIDAY MAY 15 2015


RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________600 AM FRIDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. LYTLE CREEK RAWS 1.65 4WNW DEVORE
2. LINDBERGH FIELD 1.63 1NW SAN DIEGO
3. LAKE CUYAMACA 1.51 1NE CUYAMACA MT
4. PINE HILLS FS 1.49 3SW JULIAN
5. COUSER CANYON 1.46 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
6. LINDBERGH FIELD 1.44 1NW SAN DIEGO
7. JULIAN 1.28 1E JULIAN
8. PINE HILLS RAWS 1.27 5SW JULIAN
9. YORBA PARK 1.22 2SE YORBA LINDA
CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.22 2NNW RANCHO CUCA



.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
LINDBERGH FIELD 1.63 42 1NW SAN DIEGO
FASHION VALLEY 0.93 20 3N SAN DIEGO
OCEANSIDE 0.59 30 1N OCEANSIDE
SAN ONOFRE 0.58 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
KEARNY MESA 0.50 455 6NNW SAN DIEGO
POINT LOMA 0.46 364 4WSW SAN DIEGO
MONTGOMERY FIELD 0.37 423 6NNW SAN DIEGO
CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 0.37 539 8NNW SAN DIEGO
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.35 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.32 357 3SE CARLSBAD
CARLSBAD 0.30 305
SAN MARCOS LANDFILL 0.23 766 3SW SAN MARCOS
GOAT CANYON 0.20 110
EL CAMINO DEL NORTE 0.16 50 6SSW SAN MARCOS
BROWN FIELD 0.11 524 5SE CHULA VISTA
ENCINITAS 0.08 242
TIJUANA ESTUARY 0.08 20
SOLANA BEACH 0.06 75


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
COUSER CANYON 1.46 285 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
RAINBOW CAMP 1.14 1553 2S TEMECULA
BONSALL CRS 1.00 185 3SSW FALLBROOK
LAKE MURRAY 0.59 530 1NW LA MESA
COLE GRADE RD 0.58 750 5N JULIAN
FLINN SPRINGS 0.56 880 2E LAKESIDE
SANTEE 0.55 300 2W SANTEE
LAKE WOHLFORD 0.51 1490 1SE VALLEY CENTER
SD COUNTRY ESTATES 0.51 1660 5SE RAMONA
HARBISON CANYON 0.49 1240 1SE LAKESIDE
POWAY 0.48 440 1SW POWAY
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 0.48 917 7W FALLBROOK
MT. WOODSON 0.45 1720 4NW POWAY
RANCHO BERNARDO 0.44 690
BARONA 0.43 1280 3SSE RAMONA
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 0.42 1530 2NNW RAMONA
LOS COCHES CREEK 0.40 560 4NNE EL CAJON
GRANITE HILLS 0.40 533 2E EL CAJON
SANDIA CK RD 0.38 342 1NE FALLBROOK
RAMONA 0.38 1420
DEER SPRINGS 0.33 1000 1SE ESCONDIDO
ALPINE RAWS 0.32 2041 2ESE ALPINE
VALLEY CENTER 0.30 1295
FALLBROOK 0.27 675 1S FALLBROOK
LA MESA 0.27 530
RAMONA AIRPORT 0.26 1400 2W RAMONA
ESCONDIDO 0.23 640
RINCON SPRINGS 0.22 970 5NE VALLEY CENTER
MIRAMAR LAKE 0.20 130 3ESE MIRA MESA
VALLEY CENTER RAWS 0.20 1370 1ENE VALLEY CENTER
DULZURA SUMMIT 0.15 1512 8SE JAMUL
PARADISE CREEK 0.12 950 3ENE VALLEY CENTER


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
LAKE CUYAMACA 1.51 4560 1NE CUYAMACA MT
PINE HILLS FS 1.49 3645 3SW JULIAN
JULIAN 1.28 4230 1E JULIAN
PINE HILLS RAWS 1.27 3600 5SW JULIAN
JULIAN RAWS 1.15 4240 0 JULIAN
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 1.06 5560 0 PALOMAR MT
BIRCH HILL 0.98 5645 2SSW PALOMAR MT
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.98 5530 0 PALOMAR MT
HENSHAW DAM 0.91 2750 0 LAKE HENSHAW
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 0.89 5410
LA JOLLA AMAGO 0.79 2400 9ENE VALLEY CENTER
ECHO DELL 0.76 3060 8NW PINE VALLEY
PALOMAR CRS 0.67 2SW PALOMAR MT
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 0.59 3000 3SSW PALOMAR MT
SANTA YSABEL 0.58 2990 3NW JULIAN
DESCANSO RS 0.56 3650 4WNW PINE VALLEY
MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS 0.51 5760 2N PINE VALLEY
CAMPO 1N 0.46 2610 1N CAMPO
CAMERON RAWS 0.44 3443 4N CAMPO
DESCANSO RAWS 0.43 3480 7NW PINE VALLEY
TIERRA DEL SOL 0.39 4000 1W BOULEVARD
WARNER SPRINGS 0.38 3040
OAK GROVE RAWS 0.34 2770 2NE PALOMAR MT
OTAY MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.32 3283 7SSE JAMUL
MT LAGUNA 0.31 6000 0 MT LAGUNA
RANCHITA 0.22 4008 6WSW BORREGO SPR
RANCHITA RAWS 0.20 4180 5WSW BORREGO SPR


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS

NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED


.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
YORBA PARK 1.22 305 2SE YORBA LINDA
ALAMEDA STORM CHANNEL 0.98 339 4S YORBA LINDA
CORONA DEL MAR 0.75 300 2E NEWPORT BEACH
SANTA ANA ENGINEERING 0.67 170
GARDEN GROVE 0.59 80 2NW GARDEN GROVE
YORBA RESERVOIR 0.59 300 1S YORBA LINDA
OCEANVIEW 0.59 43 3S GARDEN GROVE
VILLA PARK DAM 0.57 560 3SE YORBA LINDA
EL MODENA-IRVINE 0.55 70 2N IRVINE
UPPER ALISO CREEK 0.55 560 1ESE LAKE FOREST
E GARDEN GVE/WNTRSBRG 0.51 120 2NW SANTA ANA
LAGUNA AUDUBON 0.47 314 3W MISSION VIEJO
COSTA MESA 0.43 47 3NNE NEWPORT BEACH
MOULTON PEAK REPEATER 0.43 888 3NE LAGUNA BEACH
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 0.40 50 4W IRVINE
SAN DIEGO CK @ CULVER 0.40 70 1SSE IRVINE
SAN JUAN GUARD 0.40 660 8E MISSION VIEJO
ANAHEIM BARBER CITY 0.39 5 1NE SEAL BEACH
CARBON CANYON DAM 0.36 403 2NW YORBA LINDA
BEE CANYON 0.36 755 4NE IRVINE
WESTMINSTER CHANNEL 0.36 40 2SW GARDEN GROVE
FULLERTON CREEK 0.31 95
GILBERT RETARDING BSN 0.31 100 2WSW ANAHEIM
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.31 120 1NNW SANTA ANA
LAGUNA BCH @ WOODLAND 0.31 47 1NE LAGUNA BEACH
SANTA ANA DELHI CHNL 0.28 24 3NE NEWPORT BEACH
PICO RETARDING BASIN 0.28 760 2NW SAN CLEMENTE
LAGUNA CYN REPEATER 0.27 530 2NW LAGUNA BEACH
MILLER BASIN 0.27 220 1SW YORBA LINDA
FULLERTON AIRPORT 0.26 96 1W FULLERTON
BREA OLINDA 0.24 750 3NW YORBA LINDA
BREA 2W 0.24 340 4NE FULLERTON
SAN DIEGO CK @ CAMPUS 0.24 20
UPPER OSO CREEK 0.24 420 1E LAKE FOREST
HUNTINGTON BEACH 0.23 20 3N HUNTINGTON BEACH
LAGUNA NIGUEL PARK 0.20 200 3E LAGUNA BEACH
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 0.20 75 2NE DANA POINT
SEGUNDA DESHECA 0.17 85 1NW SAN CLEMENTE
BELL CANYON 0.17 700 7ENE SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO
COTO DE CAZA 0.16 730 1ESE RANCHO SANTA MARG
PETERS CANYON WASH 0.09 40 3N IRVINE


.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 1.06 1980 2SSW MURRIETA
SILVERADO MOTORWAY 0.67 3969
UPPER SILVERADO CYN 0.67 2880 2N SANTIAGO PK
SANTIAGO PEAK 0.63 5660
MODJESKA CANYON 0.63 1260 5NE LAKE FOREST
KSOX RADAR SITE 0.55 3092 7NW SANITAGO PK
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.55 1892 3WSW MURRIETA
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.51 1210 5NE LAKE FOREST
FREMONT CANYON RAWS 0.46 1781 6SE YORBA LINDA
EL CARISO 0.31 2600 2SW LAKE ELSINORE
EL CARISO RAWS 0.30 2660 1SW LAKE ELSINORE


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
TEMECULA 1.18 1180
CRANSTON RAWS 0.95 1950 6E HEMET
SKINNER LAKE 0.87 1700 4NE TEMECULA
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.82 909 5NNE TEMECULA
VAIL LAKE 0.77 1470 9E TEMECULA
BEAUMONT RAWS 0.53 2680 1E BEAUMONT
RAILROAD CANYON DAM 0.51 1420 *
Dolphin

FunkTop Loop



Water Vapor Loop


A very Healthy Typhoon


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 MAY 2015 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:24:49 N Lon : 144:18:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 967.3mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 4.3

Center Temp : -73.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 103km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.9 degrees




when you realize that southern california gets the overwhelming majority of it's water from 4 aqueducts....meaning these rains bring little water supply relief to california both as a whole and the southern california region......and then when you realize where the predominant areas of ranchland are located...well then darn it.....a shame that rain was wasted on socal and not nocal

Quoting 68. ricderr:

when you realize that southern california gets the overwhelming majority of it's water from 4 aqueducts....meaning these rains bring little water supply relief to california both as a whole and the southern california region......and then when you realize where the predominant areas of ranchland are located...well then darn it.....a shame that rain was wasted on socal and not nocal




I'm not sure I follow your line of thinking. At the very least, the rain will help ease the wildfire risk and aid vegetation in that region. I don't think anybody is claiming it to be a drought buster, but I think any bit of rain is good for that state right now, even if it's not falling on the aqueducts.
At least the traffic will SLOW down around here with all the rain....we got people rubber necking and pointing at that clear stUff on the roads! What is that stuff? They are slowing down from the speed of our freeways from 80 mph to maybe 60.....LOL...............Slow Down People and be SAFE!
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:

Yep. And that 2011 Texas drought only ran Americans something like $100 billion in direct and indirect costs: higher food prices, FCIC make-goods, shuttered farms and ranches, lost jobs, lower productivity, and the like.

No big deal at all, really.

(Life is so much easier when one ignores both the details and the consequences, isn't it?)

That Texas drought, preceded by the blistering 2010 Russia/Ukraine summer and some grand floods here and there (Thailand, Pakistan) caused a terrible spike in prices of many commodities esp. grains (like corn, rice) was a main precursor of what became known as the 'Arab Spring'.
Quoting 51. Xyrus2000:



Unfortunately...

1. The rain is affecting only a small limited part of California.
2. It's not nearly enough to alleviate the drought
3. The parched ground means a lot of that rain is just running off instead of being absorbed (hence the flash flooding)

Back in December it wast estimated that California needs 11 trillion gallons of water to alleviate the drought. That's about 25 gallons of water for every square meter of surface area in California, or about 4 inches of rain.

That's not just 4 inches in San Diego or Los Angeles. That's 4 inches of rain on every single square meter of California. And that's assuming that said rain falls in such a way that it is actually absorbed.

So that rain in San Diego is literally just a drop in the bucket. It going to take a lot more than that to even put a dent in the drought.


True but you have to start somewhere.....And more rain is forecasted....California did not get into a drought over night and will not get out of one overnight....
Quoting 69. tampabaymatt:



I'm not sure I follow your line of thinking. At the very least, the rain will help ease the wildfire risk and aid vegetation in that region. I don't think anybody is claiming it to be a drought buster, but I think any bit of rain is good for that state right now, even if it's not falling on the aqueducts.


A lot of folks in San Diego County rural areas have wells for their water including myself. Any rain is welcome to recharge the groundwater supply.......and at the very least it greens things up and smelling the pines and chapparal makes me very happy. Any rain is good.
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:

Yep. And that 2011 Texas drought only ran Americans something like $100 billion in direct and indirect costs: higher food prices, FCIC make-goods, shuttered farms and ranches, lost jobs, lower productivity, and the like.

No big deal at all, really.

(Life is so much easier when one ignores both the details and the consequences, isn't it?)


I never implied they were happy about the drought, only the new rain.
Quoting 56. help4u:

More good news record antarctic sea ice could close down only way to re supply scientific station.Has been there many years and some models forecasting record global sea ice!Really great news also Texas perma drought forecast bit the dust with a cooler than normal summer in plains and another record crop year on the way!Enjoy your day everyone.


What is your source for "some models forecasting record global sea ice"?
76. JRRP

Quoting 75. DCSwithunderscores:



What is your source for "some models forecasting record global sea ice"?
Probably the same place that science stations cannot be supplied due to ice.
“If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe, then man would have only four years of life left. No more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man.” --Albert Einstein


Report: Honey bees continue to suffer colony collapse

A new report indicates that honey bees – critical to some aspects of agriculture – are continuing their decline from a combination of parasites and possibly pesticide use.

On Wednesday the Bee Informed Partnership, in collaboration with the Apiary Inspectors of America and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released an annual report on honey bee losses in the United States that is based on a national survey of beekeepers.

The results of the survey show that beekeepers reported losing 42.1 percent of the total number of colonies managed between April 2014 and April 2015. Friends of the Earth, a nonprofit environmental group, said in a statement that this level of loss is not sustainable.

Gross revenue from apiary operations in Monterey County is small, roughly $200,000 a year. The production includes honey, wax and the largest revenue generator, pollination, according to the 2013 Monterey County Crop Report. Bees are used to pollinate seed crops of broccoli, carrots, cauliflower, cucumbers, flowers and several more crops grown in the county.

The effects of pesticides on honey bee populations remains controversial. On one side there are organizations like Friends of the Earth that maintain “a large and growing body of science has been attributed to alarming bee declines in recent years to several key factors, including exposure to the world’s most widely used class of insecticides called neonicotinoids.”

On the other side are makers of pesticides, like Bayer CropScience, that maintain neonicotinoid insecticides do not impact colony health when used according to the label.

“Hundreds of studies on neonicotinoids and bees indicate that when used according to label instructions, [neonicotinoids] are not harmful to bee colonies,” according to a Bayer CropScience document titled “The Facts about Honey Bees and Pesticides.”

But not everyone is convinced.

More:....
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:

FCIC make-goods


Pardon the ignorance, but what exactly is this? A brief google search brought up the "Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission" as the likely acronym, but I'm still in the dark.
Quoting 79. LongIslandBeaches:



Pardon the ignorance, but what exactly is this? A brief google search brought up the "Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission" as the likely acronym, but I'm still in the dark.
The Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. Also here.
A loop of Dolphins trek

Dolphin has a well defined small eye now :


78. Patrap
3:08 PM GMT on May 15, 2015

“If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe, then man would have only four years of life left. No more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man.” --Albert Einstein


There are things people can do to help bees from being killed off..If 25% of people would take certain steps, it would make a big difference. I am going to do something I have never done on this blog....a link to a Fox news article pertinent to the bees plight, and how to help...Link
Round 2 for Sooo Cal starting to move onshore from the Pacific.........seems to be moving slower than yesterday's batch.

Quoting 82. MahFL:

Dolphin has a well defined small eye now :


It may reach Super Typhoon strength.
Quoting 74. MahFL:



I never implied they were happy about the drought, only the new rain.
My point being that the profoundly expensive effects of a historical drought don't just magically disappear once the rains return; they linger, often for years and decades.


Santa Barbara to Baja California. San Diego now has tied for 3rd wettest May on record since 1850. Todays rain may move it to the wettest May on record.
Quoting 81. Patrap:

A loop of Dolphins trek


Looks like Rota was hit with the worst.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 59m 59 minutes ago
Ecmwf and CFS (bias-corrected) fcsts show a strong #ElNino over JJA, one of the strongest on record for that season.
Quoting 81. Patrap:

A loop of Dolphins trek




Dolphin had a big enough eye to have a dual landfall on Guam and Rota....the islands are separated by about 40 miles


On a flight from Naha,Okinawa in 82 in a C-130 we orbited Guam 2 times then landed, but the Pilots kept on the Comm before the final approach, "on yer left is the Pacific, annnnnnnd, on yer right is da Pacific, annnnnd',...
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 59m 59 minutes ago
Ecmwf and CFS (bias-corrected) fcsts show a strong #ElNino over JJA, one of the strongest on record for that season.



Have they stretched out the time it will remain very strong? Hoping it lasts at a strong level into Jan-Feb 2016


"THE COMMUNICATION CONNECTION TO PGUA WSR-88D IS DOWN.
WFO GUAM'

...

From NexRad.

Guam Power Authority Spokesperson Heidi Ballendorf says for the most part, power outages during Typhoon Dolphin were limited to some pocket areas around the island. This includes areas in Dededo, Agana, Barrigada Heights, and Yigo. Ballendorf says that GPA crews were able to go out to some of these areas and restore power within a few hours by this afternoon. Ballendorf adds that a total 57 personnel were out addressing transmission and distribution issues throughout the island.

 "As far as the power side, yes we know there’s gonna be intermittent power outages. GPA’s done an excellent job of fortifying it's infrastructure," says Ballendorf.

Ballendorf explains that over the last few years, GPA invested in upgrading infrastructure with capital improvement projects, which has contributed to minimizing major power outages during storms. Ballendorf says that hasn’t always been the case in typhoons past.

"We didn’t have as many, for instance, concrete poles. Today 95 percent of the power poles are concrete. So that’s a big. We put major transmission lines underground now so there’s several areas where we expect that we don’t lose power. Having said that I’m sure there will be some villages that will experience some power outages," explains Ballendorf.

As far as water is concerned, Ballendorf says no water outages were reported and she doesn’t expect that it will be an issue.

"We’ve been through storms last year and we didn’t lose water," notes Ballendorf. "So for instance the reason why we don’t lose water like we did back in the day is because we put our wells on standby generator."

If you experience a power outage, Ballendorf asks that the public remain patient and trust that GPA crews are doing everything they can to restore power immediately without compromising safety. However, if you notice any downed power lines or vegetation affecting power lines, you should report it to GPA by calling their emergency dispatch numbers at 475-1472, 1473 or 1474.

GPA reminds the public that if you are using a generator, make sure to turn off your main breaker before powering up your generator.

Quoting 92. Patrap:



On a flight from Naha,Okinawa in 82 in a C-130 we orbited Guam 2 times then landed, but the Pilots kept on the Comm before the final approach, "on yer left is the Pacific, annnnnnnd, on yer right is da Pacific, annnnnd',...
What years were you there Pat.?
Last daytime image of dolphin.. This is hours old by now, but I'm surprised no one posted it. A beautiful, but devastating system..

We might wanna keep an eye on this. It seems to have strengthened a bit over the last few hours..

95W:



Quoting 95. Torito:



"THE COMMUNICATION CONNECTION TO PGUA WSR-88D IS DOWN.
WFO GUAM'

...

From NexRad.


Not surprising, as the Typhoon hit.
Quoting 92. Patrap:



On a flight from Naha,Okinawa in 82 in a C-130 we orbited Guam 2 times then landed, but the Pilots kept on the Comm before the final approach, "on yer left is the Pacific, annnnnnnd, on yer right is da Pacific, annnnnd',...


I heard somewhere pilots gotta dumb it down for Jarhea... err Devil Dogs... jes sayin'

Good Afternoon all..

Article from Reuters..

Excerpts:

If a strong El Niño does develop the likely U.S. impacts include wetter conditions across the southern U.S., from drought-stricken California through Texas to Florida, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Weather Underground. Recent rains across the central and southern Plains and reaching as far as southern California "could be seen as a sneak preview," he wrote on his blog. But the El Niño effect did not guarantee drought relief for the Golden State, he said. "The strong El Niño of 1987-88 ... produced a drier-than-average winter from California to Washington," he wrote.

another excerpt:
"The CPC report said that by early May weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected across the equatorial Pacific. The CPC said there was still "considerable uncertainty" about the potential strength of the event."

Pictures from the 2009-2010 El Nino





Here is the page link to the RAMSDIS page with satellite imagery from the Japanese Himawari satt. Great resource for North Pacific storms and if you consider that the Pacific is going to see a lot more storms in the coming decades than the Atlantic basin (both due to climate change issues and the possible end of the active phase for the Atlantic AMO in addition to it being the largest ocean basin in the world), we will be looking at Pacific Typhoons much more often than Atlantic storms in the future:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/hi mawari-8.asp

Nice recent shot from Himawari of the eye:

Quoting 92. Patrap:



On a flight from Naha,Okinawa in 82 in a C-130 we orbited Guam 2 times then landed, but the Pilots kept on the Comm before the final approach, "on yer left is the Pacific, annnnnnnd, on yer right is da Pacific, annnnnd',...
1982..My eyes or "I" missed it the first time...Remember that year well. The No Name storm washed out roads to the barrier islands. Many at anchor dragged, hit the rocks, and sunk..For the first time, we had to throw a stern anchor to keep from swinging...it was bad.
Quoting 86. Neapolitan:

My point being that the profoundly expensive effects of a historical drought don't just magically disappear once the rains return; they linger, often for years and decades.

Rain in mid to late spring is not a solution to a drought, it may even be detrimental, as this amount of rain will probably not supply much or any water to reservoirs.
Heavy late spring rains will lead to hardening of the ground and a possibly spurt of growth which will very soon dry and present an increased fire risk.
Added to this most of the crops will be well on their way to maturity and will not respond to rain very well at this stage of their growth.
One benefit of course will be the reduced amount of domestic irrigation needed over the few days after the rainfall, hence conserving some of the stored reservoir water stocks.
So the rainfall is a sort of balanced blessing.

Relative to yesterdays blog about the heat wave in Spain.
today the temps are back to about +30/C in the south and the Alicante area is having the first major forest/scrub fires of the season, out of control as of 3 pm today.
Heat damage to immature wheat in central Spain is estimated at about 90 million Euros, or $100 million so far this year.
Quoting 108. PlazaRed:


Rain in mid to late spring is not a solution to a drought, it may even be detrimental, as this amount of rain will probably not supply much or any water to reservoirs.
Heavy late spring rains will lead to hardening of the ground and a possibly spurt of growth which will very soon dry and present an increased fire risk.
Added to this most of the crops will be well on their way to maturity and will not respond to rain very well at this stage of their growth.
One benefit of course will be the reduced amount of domestic irrigation needed over the few days after the rainfall, hence conserving some of the stored reservoir water stocks.
So the rainfall is a sort of balanced blessing.

Relative to yesterdays blog about the heat wave in Spain.
today the temps are back to about +30/C in the south and the Alicante area is having the first major forest/scrub fires of the season, out of control as of 3 pm today.
Heat damage to immature wheat in central Spain is estimated at about 90 million Euros, or $100 million so far this year.


Can you provide some sort of support that late spring rain leads to "hardening of the ground"? I have never heard of this before and would be interested in reading further.

Also, I don't follow another point you made, how is it that crops will not respond well to the rain? Please clarify. The last time I checked, most plants respond well to water.

I'm amazed at the comments today indicating that the rains hitting S Cal this week are somehow unhelpful or detrimental, even as more than one person living in that region has stated the rains are welcome.
Quoting 108. PlazaRed:


Rain in mid to late spring is not a solution to a drought, it may even be detrimental, as this amount of rain will probably not supply much or any water to reservoirs.
Heavy late spring rains will lead to hardening of the ground and a possibly spurt of growth which will very soon dry and present an increased fire risk.
Added to this most of the crops will be well on their way to maturity and will not respond to rain very well at this stage of their growth.
One benefit of course will be the reduced amount of domestic irrigation needed over the few days after the rainfall, hence conserving some of the stored reservoir water stocks.
So the rainfall is a sort of balanced blessing.

Relative to yesterdays blog about the heat wave in Spain.
today the temps are back to about +30/C in the south and the Alicante area is having the first major forest/scrub fires of the season, out of control as of 3 pm today.
Heat damage to immature wheat in central Spain is estimated at about 90 million Euros, or $100 million so far this year.
Droughts and heatwaves have probably killed more people than all other natural disasters combined...The only thing that kills more human beings is human beings due to wars.
The good news: yes, it's rained in California. And in truth, any rain is better than no rain.

The bad news: it hasn't rained enough to make much more than a tiny dent in the current drought. In fact, as many parts of the state have been drier than normal the past week, intensifying the drought in those places.

As you can see from the following maps, the heaviest precipitation anomalies were primarily on the eastern flank of the central Sierras (which drains into the Colorado River), with a smallish blob at the state's extreme southern end:



By way of comparison, here is the state's drought situation as of this past Tuesday:



Bottom line; while any rain is welcome at this point, the current event isn't going to do much in the way of ending the current drought. The state needs feet of rain to escape the worst, not just fractions of an inch.
Quoting 111. Neapolitan:

The good news: yes, it's rained in California. And in truth, any rain is better than no rain.

The bad news: it hasn't rained enough to make much more than a tiny dent in the current drought. In fact, as many parts of the state have been drier than normal the past week, intensifying the drought in those places.

As you can see from the following maps, the heaviest precipitation anomalies were primarily on the eastern flank of the central Sierras (which drains into the Colorado River), with a smallish blob at the state's extreme southern end:



By way of comparison, here is the state's drought situation as of this past Tuesday:



Bottom line; while any rain is welcome at this point, the current event isn't going to do much in the way of ending the current drought. The state needs feet of rain to escape the worst, not just fractions of an inch.


And if that doesn't happen, then what?
Can you provide some sort of support that late spring rain leads to "hardening of the ground"? I have never heard of this before and would be interested in reading further.

Also, I don't follow another point you made, how is it that crops will not respond well to the rain? Please clarify. The last time I checked, most plants respond well to water.

I'm amazed at the comments today indicating that the rains hitting S Cal this week are somehow unhelpful or detrimental, even as more than one person living in that region has stated the rains are welcome.



ok....unhelpful yes....detrimental....in someways yes also.....welcome....heck yes.....there's not many benefits from the rain i receive here in el paso...but i welcome and love every drop

in reference to crops......a very small percentage of california farmland in the areas receiving rain.......

in reference to easing fire danger....this event is a temporary fix...within a few short weeks there will be no difference as the water received today is not wetting the soil......

Since many areas have not received an inch of water in a long time, the soil profile has continued to dry. Those of you have that only have a little bit of soil, there is no question that your soil profile is dry. So if you have a foot of clay soil over rock, you will need to receive 2½ inches of rain where none of the water runs off to re-wet your soil. Some of you have 3 to 4 feet of soil. The effective root zone of most plants is 3 feet. So if you have 3 feet of sandy soil, you will need 3 inches of rain where no water runs off to wet the soil 3 feet deep

do spring rains increase california's fire danger.....yes they do...here's from years back

Leaves and high grass, spawned by spring rain, have baked in hotter than normal springtime temperatures and dried into potential tinder for brush fires, according to Fire Capt. Michael Paulette with the California Department of Forestry.


Quoting 111. Neapolitan:

The good news: yes, it's rained in California. And in truth, any rain is better than no rain.

The bad news: it hasn't rained enough to make much more than a tiny dent in the current drought. In fact, as many parts of the state have been drier than normal the past week, intensifying the drought in those places.

As you can see from the following maps, the heaviest precipitation anomalies were primarily on the eastern flank of the central Sierras (which drains into the Colorado River), with a smallish blob at the state's extreme southern end:



By way of comparison, here is the state's drought situation as of this past Tuesday:



Bottom line; while any rain is welcome at this point, the current event isn't going to do much in the way of ending the current drought. The state needs feet of rain to escape the worst, not just fractions of an inch.
Yep...I heard someone say once " you have to live through it to fully understand it " and drought is a terrible hardship. Families here in TN know all too well what a drought can do to thousands of families livelihoods. The 1930,s were a nightmare of epic proportions. Families that were starving were forced east to survive. States closest to the devastated regions were literally overwhelmed with starving people looking for water and clothes..They even had a slang terms " Okies " for many were from that region, but Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and parts of the Canadian Prairies were dessicated.

Here is an exerpt, but it is worth the time to read the whole thing through...

Human displacement

This catastrophe intensified the economic impact of the Great Depression in the region.
U.S.

In 1935, many families were forced to leave their farms and travel to other areas seeking work because of the drought (which at that time had already lasted four years). Dust Bowl conditions fomented an exodus of the displaced from Texas, Oklahoma, and the surrounding Great Plains to adjacent regions. More than 500,000 Americans were left homeless. Over 350 houses had to be torn down after one storm alone. The severe drought and dust storms had left many homeless, others had their mortgages foreclosed by banks, and others felt they had no choice but to abandon their farms in search of work. Many Americans migrated west looking for work. Parents packed up "jalopies" with their families and a few personal belongings, and headed west in search of work. Some residents of the Plains, especially in Kansas and Oklahoma, fell ill and died of dust pneumonia or malnutrition.

The Dust Bowl exodus was the largest migration in American history within a short period of time. Between 1930 and 1940, approximately 3.5 million people moved out of the Plains states; of those, it is unknown how many moved to California. In just over a year, over 86,000 people migrated to California. This number is more than the number of migrants to that area during the 1849 Gold Rush. Migrants abandoned farms in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Colorado, and New Mexico, but were often generally referred to as "Okies", "Arkies", or "Texies".Terms such as "Okies" and "Arkies" came to be known in the 1930s as the standard terms for those who had lost everything and were struggling the most during the Great Depression.

Not all migrants traveled long distances; some simply went to the next town or county. So many families left their farms and were on the move that the proportion between migrants and residents was nearly equal in the Great Plains states.
Characteristics of migrants


Historian James N. Gregory examined Census Bureau statistics, and other records to learn more about the migrants. Based on a 1939 survey of occupation by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of about 116,000 families who arrived in California in the 1930s, he learned that only 43 percent of southwesterners were doing farm work immediately before they migrated. Nearly one-third of all migrants were professional or white-collar workers. The poor economy displaced more than just farmers as refugees to California; many teachers, lawyers, and small business owners moved west with their families during this time. After the Great Depression ended, some moved back to their original states. Many others remained where they had resettled. About one-eighth of California's population is of Okie heritage.....

Here is a link for those interested...Link
Quoting 109. tampabaymatt:



Can you provide some sort of support that late spring rain leads to "hardening of the ground"? I have never heard of this before and would be interested in reading further.

Also, I don't follow another point you made, how is it that crops will not respond well to the rain? Please clarify. The last time I checked, most plants respond well to water.

I'm amazed at the comments today indicating that the rains hitting S Cal this week are somehow unhelpful or detrimental, even as more than one person living in that region has stated the rains are welcome.

I can only provide personal experience of over 20 years of living in a country with an annual summer drought from May until October, where there is virtually no rainfall in a normal year.
Temps are usually in the 90s to 100s /F. Every day.
The ground becomes hardened and dusty with a tendency for heavy rain to runoff. Any rain which is absorbed into the surface normally does not penetrate very far and although due to the air temps it will cause seeds to germinate, the ground quickly hardens and the freshly germinated seeds normally die, or in the case of sunflowers they may reach an height of only a few inches.
As a general rule an inch of rain will dampen about 3 inches of soil but this rapidly dries out to a sort of hard cake, this leads to increased runoff in future rain falls.

Crops will of course benefit from the rains but they will probably by this time of year in the 30 degree latitudes already be producing seeds and fruits, these will be small and of low yields, so rains at this time of the growth cycle is not really an advantage to increased production.
Rain or water is needed in the main part of the growing season which has now mainly passed.

I did point out in my opinion that some plants would respond to the rains but they will mainly be domesticated and grass of the lawn types. Particularly where the soil is tilled to retain the water.
The downside of late rains is an increased growth of weed and scrub cover which is low after a drought but can as I pointed out earlier grow somewhat hence increasing fire hazards.
The whole subject of late rains is highly complex from an agricultural point of view and I am sure will be extensively covered by proper experts, leaving my opinions and experience way out of the complete picture of the phenomena.

Needless to say of course any rains which fall in California must be very welcome to the population after such a long drought
Quoting 113. NickyTesla:



I can't even imagine what it is like living in your head, where everything is gloom and doom and the slightest positive is snuffed out with overwhelming negativity, comment after comment after comment.
Oh, I'm so sorry. What I *meant* to say was that a few fractions of an inch of rainfall in scattered parts of California would certainly be more than enough to refill all the state's reservoirs and make the drought go away. How very rude of me to have disturbed little Pollyanna's all-is-well-with-the-world utopia with the unpleasant hydrological truth...

;-)
Quoting 114. ricderr:

Can you provide some sort of support that late spring rain leads to "hardening of the ground"? I have never heard of this before and would be interested in reading further.

Also, I don't follow another point you made, how is it that crops will not respond well to the rain? Please clarify. The last time I checked, most plants respond well to water.

I'm amazed at the comments today indicating that the rains hitting S Cal this week are somehow unhelpful or detrimental, even as more than one person living in that region has stated the rains are welcome.



ok....unhelpful yes....detrimental....in someways yes also.....welcome....heck yes.....there's not many benefits from the rain i receive here in el paso...but i welcome and love every drop

in reference to crops......a very small percentage of california farmland in the areas receiving rain.......

in reference to easing fire danger....this event is a temporary fix...within a few short weeks there will be no difference as the water received today is not wetting the soil......

Since many areas have not received an inch of water in a long time, the soil profile has continued to dry. Those of you have that only have a little bit of soil, there is no question that your soil profile is dry. So if you have a foot of clay soil over rock, you will need to receive 2½ inches of rain where none of the water runs off to re-wet your soil. Some of you have 3 to 4 feet of soil. The effective root zone of most plants is 3 feet. So if you have 3 feet of sandy soil, you will need 3 inches of rain where no water runs off to wet the soil 3 feet deep

do spring rains increase california's fire danger.....yes they do...here's from years back

Leaves and high grass, spawned by spring rain, have baked in hotter than normal springtime temperatures and dried into potential tinder for brush fires, according to Fire Capt. Michael Paulette with the California Department of Forestry.





Not sure whether you are referencing other comments or something else. Since you don't use the quote feature for some reason, your comments just become a mangled mess. In any event, I will agree to disagree with you guys. I can't imagine how rain falling from the sky onto dirt "is not wetting the soil" and is somehow a negative result for a region of the country in epic drought. I wish I had more time today to research some of these points, but I don't and it will need to come on a later day.
120. yoboi
Rains flooded into more cars and several apartments in the Arroyo area. At Reynard Way and Torrance Street, four apartment units were evacuated with the help of firefighters.

San Diego Police reopened the road early Friday but will monitor the area since more rain is expected through Friday and flooding may get worse.

An unseasonably cold storm that originated in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing Southern California periods of rain and snow along with fierce winds, National Weather Service forecasters said.



Kayaking on a Point Loma street



As the water started coming down, traffic backed up along many San Diego freeways.

But a few enterprising adventurers tried to take advantage of the flooding by kayaking down a Point Loma street in the afternoon. They were not very successful.


Link
Boomer's

Quoting 118. ncstorm:





you know plaza...i had to check that rain making ground hard...and darn it...you're right.......rain makes bare ground hard...and due to drought and just the natural topography...many areas are barren


from finch frolic garden is souther cal

Rain compacts soil more than a tractor does – when it falls on bare ground
Got about 5 minutes of heavy rain last night, with a couple periods of light rain before and after. PWS's near me range from .12" to .48" for storm totals. Radar presentation makes it look like the rain is over here, so this is pretty disappointing. I hope Central CA and the Sierra fared better, since that's where the majority of the water supply comes from.
here mat........hopefully this will help.....

what's the bottom line effect of the last storm on water supply for california......enough water to supply 200 homes for the year.....anyone care to guess how many homes are in california???????


California rainstorm too little, too late

Consistent heavy downpours must also drench Northern California to make a real dent in the drought

Every drop counts.

So the mantra goes in drought-weary California, where long dry spells are interrupted by mostly minor rainstorms like the one we just experienced.

But do these light storms really make a difference?

The rain and snow that falls in Southern California does help recharge our local groundwater supply and fill small reservoirs. But the way California's water system is set up, consistent heavy downpours must also drench Northern California to make a real dent in the drought.

When it rains locally, where does the water go?

Between 80% and 90% of the rain that falls in the urban Southland winds up in a vast storm drain system that eventually dumps it into the ocean, said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

The county's flood control system, though, managed to capture about 37 million gallons of water from Thursday's storm — enough to serve more than 200 households for a year.

Locally, rain collects in one of 14 reservoirs in the mountains and is held for later use, said Bob Spencer, a spokesman for the L.A. County Department of Public Works. At the same time, water in the system is shunted to sunken basins called "spreading grounds," where it slowly seeps into the ground and replenishes the local aquifer, he said.

About 38% of the county's water comes from local groundwater sources, according to a recent UCLA study.

Are there other ways a storm in Southern California can help?



Rain has nitrogen in it and can acts as "nature's fertilizer," Patzert said. It also cleans the air of dust and pollen, which can help temporarily relieve people suffering from allergies, he added.

And, "to the extent that rainfall convinces people they do not need to water their lawn, it's a big plus," said Doug Carlson of the state Department of Water Resources. He pointed to the month of December, in which Californians experienced heavy rain and statewide water conservation spiked.

Perhaps just as important, simply seeing rain can give residents a psychological boost.

"It's been so dreary and dry, you get a little rain, you get a little hope," Patzert said. "But in terms of genuine relief or hope for a drought-buster? You'd have to be delusional."

Why does Northern California rain matter so much?

Most of the rain and snow in California falls in the northern third of the state and in the Sierra Nevada.

But "the greatest portion of Californians have settled in the part of the state that doesn't get much rainfall," Carlson said. "The wise water engineers and politicians of 50 and 60 years ago recognized that they needed to pull together a plan to account for a lot of water in the north and almost none in the south."

To do that, officials built the State Water Project. Fed by rivers and massive reservoirs, the project delivers water to farmland in the San Joaquin Valley and urban Southern California through an extensive aqueduct system.

"The infrastructure was built in the northern two-thirds of the state," because that's where most of the rain and snow was falling, Carlson said. "The problem is now we've entered a new era where averages don't mean much anymore. We've entered an era of variability."

About 58% of the water used in L.A. County comes from outside the region, mostly from the north via the State Water Project and the east from the Colorado River. That imported water is supplied by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which this year is rationing its supply to the 26 cities and water districts it serves, including the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.

Though Metropolitan is getting its full supply of Colorado River water this year, the State Water Project deliveries are only 20% of requested amounts. The drought has also reduced the amount of water Los Angeles is getting from the Owens Valley, forcing it to buy more supplies from Metropolitan.

To refill Metropolitan's State Water Project supply, the Northern California and mountain areas that have traditionally gotten the lion's share of rain and snow need more of both.

It's been so dreary and dry, you get a little rain, you get a little hope. But in terms of genuine relief or hope for a drought-buster? You'd have to be delusional.
- Bill Patzert, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
On April 1, Gov. Jerry Brown trekked to a Sierra Nevada meadow and stood on a brown field that normally would have been covered by several feet of snow. The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which normally provides the state with about a third of its water supply, had hit a record low for that day, and Brown used the dramatic backdrop to issue an executive order mandating California's first statewide 25% reduction in water usage.

Lake Oroville, a key northern reservoir that feeds the State Water Project, now holds less water than it did a year ago.

State water resources officials have said it would take 150% of the average rainfall in the northern Sierra for California to recover from the current drought. An index of eight measuring stations there said Friday that 34.1 inches of rain had fallen in the area, about 74% of normal.


And now that summer is weeks away, Patzert does not expect improvement any time soon.

"Unless you have some biblical intervention, we're done," he said. "We've got to get through between now and October. It's guaranteed it's going to be dry."

So how dry has it really been?

Since the water year started in October, Los Angeles County has gotten between 50% and 60% of its normal rainfall, said Jayme Laber, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service.

For example, downtown Los Angeles normally receives more than 14 inches of rain by this time of year. This year, downtown has gotten less than 8 inches.

The region "really lost a lot of ground" during unusually dry winter months, which normally account for the bulk of our rain, Laber said. Between January and March, rainfall downtown was between about 20% and 35% of normal, he said.



Today is the first day of the E-pac system; having trouble acccessing the NOAA sites at the moment from my computer but here is a wide shot of the E-Pac ITCZ at the moment:  should take a few weeks for the right disturbance to come around and start to develop closer to the coast of Central America.

127. yoboi
SAN DIEGO -- This week’s storm did more than bring flash floods to San Diego, it shattered a record that has stood for 131 years.

Lindbergh Field received a total of 1.63 inches of rain Thursday, completely destroying the previous one-day record for May of 0.40 inches, set back in 1884.

As of 8 a.m. Friday, Lindbergh Field has recorded 1.7 inches of rain, according to Meteorologist Megan Parry. So far this month it has totaled 2.21 inches, making it the second wettest May on record.

It is only 0.33 inches shy of the wettest May on record, which happened in 1921 with 2.54 inches.

Link
Better image from CIMMS:

@ #127. yoboi:

re: Dat Water Vapor laden Atmosphere by 8-10 % makes a Huge difference as the available Joules per square meter increases.

Welcome to more evidence of the Anthropocene.

Quoting 127. yoboi:

SAN DIEGO -- This week’s storm did more than bring flash floods to San Diego, it shattered a record that has stood for 131 years.

Lindbergh Field received a total of 1.63 inches of rain Thursday, completely destroying the previous one-day record for May of 0.40 inches, set back in 1884.

As of 8 a.m. Friday, Lindbergh Field has recorded 1.7 inches of rain, according to Meteorologist Megan Parry. So far this month it has totaled 2.21 inches, making it the second wettest May on record.

It is only 0.33 inches shy of the wettest May on record, which happened in 1921 with 2.54 inches.

Link


This is consistent with predictions that dry years in California would become more common or worse, but that when rain does come, it would more often be in heavy downpours.
Quoting 91. Patrap:



Glad it waited until after hitting the islands before strengthening. In fact, in the the radar it looked like Dolphin was already beginning to intensify right before the eyewall hit. Now we have to worry about Iwo Jima though.
Quoting 123. ricderr:

you know plaza...i had to check that rain making ground hard...and darn it...you're right.......rain makes bare ground hard...and due to drought and just the natural topography...many areas are barren


from finch frolic garden is souther cal

Rain compacts soil more than a tractor does – when it falls on bare ground

Thanks for that Ric.
We experience it every year here in southern Spain. Hence to locals say that a thunder storm in May or June is, "No vale para nada!" Which means no good for nothing in the translation.
You get a similar thing in plant pots after multiple watering from the surface as the soil hardens to crust which then lead to the water running over the sides of the plant pot. This is why its always best to water from underneath via a saucer.
The local farmers in our area plough the fields to a very shallow depth here about this time of the year to trap any possible rainwater in the olive groves. This also prepares the ground for the winter rains.
Quoting 117. Neapolitan:

Oh, I'm so sorry. What I *meant* to say was that a few fractions of an inch of rainfall in scattered parts of California would certainly be more than enough to refill all the state's reservoirs and make the drought go away. How very rude of me to have disturbed little Pollyanna's all-is-well-with-the-world utopia with the unpleasant hydrological truth...

;-)
This made me smile....a nearly impossible occurrence


One of those storms could be approaching severe limits.
Fires continues to burn down in Collier County of S.W. Florida.

Traffic advisory: Expect limited visibility because of smoke Friday on Alligator Alley
Link





JeffMasters has created a new entry.
First Tornado Warning Of The Day!!!

TORNADO WARNING
TXC355-151815-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0032.150515T1742Z-150515T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1241 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
CLARKWOOD...OR NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...CORPUS
CHRISTI DEL MAR EAST CAMPUS...CLARKWOOD...DOWNTOWN CORPUS
CHRISTI...DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL...CORPUS CHRISTI DEL MAR WEST
CAMPUS...COLE PARK...CORPUS CHRISTI NORTH BEACH AND TULOSO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A
MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9758 2784 9749 2782 9747 2784 9738
2782 9739 2781 9741 2781 9739 2780 9738
2778 9739 2774 9736 2772 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 259DEG 26KT 2780 9752
Quoting 137. Sfloridacat5:

Fires continues to burn down in Collier County of S.W. Florida.

Traffic advisory: Expect limited visibility because of smoke Friday on Alligator Alley
Link






Collier....Its like Florida's little fireplace...I,ve seen 1000 or so there over the years...Greetings 5.
Little wet impression from the International Airport in Milan/Italy today which had to be closed intermittently due to severe weather - and the weather wasn't just outside ... (watch at 0:35, umm).



Video from inside one of the offices at the airport.

Lots of hail f.e. in nearby Turin.
Quoting 140. hydrus:

Collier....Its like Florida's little fireplace...I,ve seen 1000 or so there over the years...Greetings 5.


Yes, all it takes is one lightning bolt hitting the dry grass and you can end up with a monster fire. Sometimes these fires will burn until the rainy season really fully kicks in.
143. OCF
Quoting 111. Neapolitan:

As you can see from the following maps, the heaviest precipitation anomalies were primarily on the eastern flank of the central Sierras (which drains into the Colorado River), with a smallish blob at the state's extreme southern end:

A minor correction: the eastern Sierras don't drain to the Colorado River; they empty into closed drainage basins. The east side of the central Sierra would mostly drain to the Owens River and Owens Lake - although that also feeds the Los Angeles Aqueduct. Further north, the Walker River and the Truckee River drain to some of several low places in western Nevada that are the sinks for the whole region.
Quoting 115. hydrus:
Yep...I heard someone say once " you have to live through it to fully understand it " and drought is a terrible hardship. Families here in TN know all too well what a drought can do to thousands of families livelihoods. The 1930,s were a nightmare of epic proportions.


This reminds me of Lyrics from Mary Gauthier “The Last of the Hobo Kings”

“He knew how his nation’s doing
By the length of a side walk cigarette butt”

And
“The last free men are hoboes
Steinbeck said, and he paid cash
And the stories that he bought from them
Helped write the Grapes of Wrath”
Quoting 78. Patrap:

Report: Honey bees continue to suffer colony collapse



“Hundreds of studies on neonicotinoids and bees indicate that when used according to label instructions, [neonicotinoids] are not harmful to bee colonies,” according to a Bayer CropScience document titled “The Facts about Honey Bees and Pesticides.”

But not everyone is convinced.

More:....


One of the caveats hammered into us in the Penn State Master Gardener training course was the need to reinforce FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS. "If some is good, more is better" is an absolute problem for any consumer pesticide use. Single use consumers, smaller landscapers who don't (or can't) read the labels and follow application guidelines.

About 5 years ago, when we were looking at some way to treat the neglected orchard that came with our property, I looked into the systemic neonics. I read the instructions on the bottles at the hardware store, I looked up the products on-line, couldn't make the numbers fit so I got our total trunk-inches of tree girth, the size of the orchard, and called Bayer.

Turns out using adequate treatment dosage on that many trees in that small a space was not only not recommended, it actually was enough (given irrigation methods and tree density) to qualify as a federal offense.

The rep I spoke with at Bayer told me to absolutely NOT use imidicloprid, to not use any systemics at all, and look into other products for treating the apple infestations. I thanked him profusely for his honesty and ethics.

The problem, of course, is who else is going to call and ask? Consumers are, when it comes to pesticides (and herbicides too, honestly) largely ignorant. They'll use the easiest, least messy approach, they'll ignore the product instructions and pour, dump, spray without any interest in knowing if they're doing it right, as long as those damned bugs are dead and their roses are pretty. Everyone I know has a bottle of some form of neonic, and I guarantee they aren't paying attention.

After I got off the phone with Bayer, I went to my local Ace, chatted with the friend who usually helped me out there. "Did you know that those... (pointing to the systemics) ...will get into any fruits you eat?" No, he didn't. And he's been selling the stuff for years, and figured the label on the front at least would have some kind of warning. He's not a stupid person - just trusting.
Quoting 87. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Santa Barbara to Baja California. San Diego now has tied for 3rd wettest May on record since 1850. Todays rain may move it to the wettest May on record.


That big blue blotch over Nevada is right over my head right now.  

Indian Hills reported .1 for yesterday and is showing .03 so far today.
Across the river is doing better at .07 and .12, the CoCoRaHS site around
the corner didn't report anything. But it is still raining lightly here.
Quoting 145. nonblanche:



One of the caveats hammered into us in the Penn State Master Gardener training course was the need to reinforce FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS...


Neonicotinoids are killing bees largely through pre-treated seeds. Which have nothing to do with following directions. It's already been applied to the seed, before purchase...it's up to the grower to decide to plant it and kill bees or not.

A single corn kernel with a 1,250 rate of neonicotinoid seed treatment contains enough active ingredient to kill over 80,000 honey bees.