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Typhoon Warnings on Guam for Category 2 Typhoon Dolphin

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on May 14, 2015

Typhoon warnings are flying for the U.S. Mariana Islands, including Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, as Typhoon Dolphin races west-northwest towards the islands at 18 mph. Guam radar shows the outer bands of Dolphin are already affecting the islands, and Guam is under a Flash Flood Watch for rainfall amounts of 8 - 12". Dolphin has intensified only slightly in the past 24 hours; the 8 am EDT Thursday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Dolphin's winds at 110 mph, up from 105 mph 24 hours previous to that, and the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated that the central pressure had held steady at 965 mb. The lack of intensification is due to the fact that wind shear has been in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, driving dry air to the west of Dolphin into the circulation. Satellite loops show that Dolphin has shown a slight increase in the intensity and areal coverage of its heavy thunderstorms on Thursday morning, but no eye was apparent. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near 29°C (84°F), and warm waters extend to great depth along Dolphin's track, giving it plenty of heat energy to draw upon for intensification. Dolphin should be able to intensify to Category 3 typhoon status by the time it reaches Guam, but the continued presence of moderate wind shear and dry air should keep the storm below Category 4 strength until after it passes Guam. The latest 00Z Thursday run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model show Dolphin passing about 30 - 110 miles to the north of Guam between 06 - 09 UTC Friday (2 am - 5 am U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.) On this track, the island of Rota would receive the worst of Dolphin, and Guam would experience the weaker (left front) side of the typhoon. A strong trough of low pressure should recurve the storm to the north out to sea late this weekend, and Dolphin may pass close enough to Iwo Jima on Tuesday to bring that island typhoon conditions. The GFS model is also advertising that a tropical disturbance near the Equator in the waters southeast of Guam (95W) will organize early next week into a tropical depression, but it is too early to be confident of this prediction.


Figure 1. Latest image from the Guam radar.

The last typhoon on Guam: thirteen years ago
As discussed in detail in yesterday's post, the last typhoon to strike Guam was Typhoon Pongsona, which hit the island as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds on December 8, 2002. The last tropical storm to affect Guam was Tropical Storm Saomai of August 2006, which had 50 mph winds when it moved over the island. May is exceptionally early for Guam to be worrying about a typhoon; according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, no typhoon has affected the island in the months of February through June since record keeping began in 1945.

Storm chaser Jim Edds is on Guam, and will be documenting the impact of Dolphin on the island via his Twitter feed.

The NWS in Guam is putting out special advisories and local statements on Dolphin. Wave heights are expected to peak at 22 - 30 feet as the typhoon passes the island.

Bob Henson will have an El Niño post by 2 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2. Patrap:




The eye will form soon enough
2 pm and an el nino update...this should be fun.....
That white spot in the satellite loop looks like an arrow at one point and a telephone receiver a little later.

Far out, man!
Dolphin, you can look as beautiful and powerful as you want after you pass those islands, but please don't RI now. :\
By the looks of it we might have our first tropical wave for the season near 36W



We will be sure later this evening

Quoting 3. win1gamegiantsplease:



The eye will form soon enough

I think it's already forming. You can see the white highlighted tops trying to wrap into what looks like an eyewall. I may be wrong though, we really need a microwave pass to be sure.
Thanks Doc.
Incoming.

Thank You Sir Masters,

Here is the latest DVORAK ADT estimates for Dolphin the tropical cyclone not the animal:

2015MAY14 150100 4.6 976.0 79.6 4.6 4.6 3.5 MW ON OFF OFF -81.88 -75.08 UNIFRM N/A 48.8 12.55 -148.94 SPRL MTSAT2 15.4

Actually Jim Edds is on Rota, he moved.
RI FLAG ON
07W/TY/D/C2
TXPQ21 KNES 141519
TCSWNP

A. 07W (DOLPHIN)

B. 14/1432Z

C. 12.4N

D. 148.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT OF 4.5. MET IS 5.0 AND PT
IS 4.5. FT OF 5.0 IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0856Z 12.2N 150.2E SSMIS


...VELASCO
Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

TXPQ21 KNES 141519
TCSWNP

A. 07W (DOLPHIN)

B. 14/1432Z

C. 12.4N

D. 148.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT OF 4.5. MET IS 5.0 AND PT
IS 4.5. FT OF 5.0 IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0856Z 12.2N 150.2E SSMIS


...VELASCO

LLCC embedding....no bueno..
Quoting 11. TimSoCal:

Incoming.



About freakin' time for SoCal...
Thank You Dr. Every time one of these Pacific Typhoons affects islands (and ones we normally do not have on our radar like Vanuatu a few months months), the I look them up for history and population; it starts to become a good history and geography lesson if you look up the info on where a tropical storm is impacting somewhere in the world. Guam and Mariannas island chains are interesting (US territory wise) based on their presence there during the war against Japan in WWII.................Following the US win (the atomic bombs flown out of Tinian in this island chain), the US basically stayed there with military bases.

Did not know (as noted earlier by a Blogger) that they have typhoon shelters.............Between that and a US military presence, we are all hoping for the best for the Islands from this storm..............Hopefully there will be minimal casualties from this event for all impacted.
Wow, one blog breathlessly on the heels of the other, thanks!
And it looks like yesterday's European heat record for May just has been smashed once again with a reading of 43C (109,4F) at the airport of Valencia/Spain ...


Source.



The eye on Dolphin is "now apparent".....................................
Epac Season starts tomorrow (May 15th). Nothing cooking in the immediate short-term but the ITCZ looks extremely healthy in that general region:



The big picture for the Pacific at the moment:

Quoting 22. weathermanwannabe:

The eye on Dolphin is "now apparent".....................................

Indeed:
Good close-up loop with the current overall motion: it might thread the needle between Guam and Saipan which would be a good thing: Link

IMAGE NOT FOUND
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Monster atmos. Kelvin wave pushing eastward o/the Pacific. Doesnt get much prettier than this!

Guam Int Airport.

Nexrad

This next WWB means serious business!

The composite view with Storm Tracks shows us well, that the impact on the Islands has begun.

From the CPC folks. LOL

May 2015 ENSO Forecast: Will this El Niño be an overachiever, or peaked-in-high-school?
Quoting 17. Huracan94:


About freakin' time for SoCal...


Got .37 on the 8th, hoping for 3/4" from this one.
From the NOAA ENSO Blog:
"Speaking of typical events, though %u2013 this is not one of them. As you can see below, it is unusual for sea surface temperatures in the Nio3.4 region to start off warm in the winter and then continue to be warm through the spring and summer. In the 60-year record, only one El Nio event, in 1986-1987, had similar behavior. The evolution and strength of this event might be a little easier to predict if it were starting at a more typical time of year."


Link

Edit: lol, same as Scott's post above....
Anybody notice this? Notice the Trade Winds (Blue) nearly vanish over the last week. This El-Nino is going to mean business and looks like its about to come on Strong now as the wheels have been set in motion.

Quoting 36. OregonAndy:

From the NOAA ENSO Blog:
"Speaking of typical events, though %u2013 this is not one of them. As you can see below, it is unusual for sea surface temperatures in the Ni�o3.4 region to start off warm in the winter and then continue to be warm through the spring and summer. In the 60-year record, only one El Ni�o event, in 1986-1987, had similar behavior. The evolution and strength of this event might be a little easier to predict if it were starting at a more typical time of year."


Link

Edit: lol, same as Scott's post above....


That is still interesting to see as these multi El-Nino events are rare let alone going into what could be the strongest event ever with a Central Based max in SST's unlike the max being across the E-Pac in 1997/1998 El-Nino. Very rare and unique event it appears is on the way.
nope...it wasn't
Speaking of warm weather... Looks like Anchorage will have it's least snowy record broken this year.

http://www.adn.com/article/20150513/weather-servi ce-anchorages-last-winter-unofficially-least-snowy -record

Link
Quoting 39. ricderr:


Anybody notice this? Notice the Trade Winds (Blue) nearly vanish over the last week. This El-Nino is going to mean business and looks like its about to come on Strong now as the wheels have been set in motion.



isn't that an anomalies map??????


Here's the anomalies.



The total lack of Easterly anomalies is a big difference from last year.
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

This next WWB means serious business!


Will be east of the normal position and that's a huge plus for the El nino.
Here's the anomalies.


yeah...i noticed that the second time around......however.....while the a anomalies themselves match with the cfs...note the locations do not.....hmmmmmmmmmmm
Quoting 29. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Monster atmos. Kelvin wave pushing eastward o/the Pacific. Doesnt get much prettier than this!


Wrong image

Think I'll run out an get an additional sandbag......
Quoting 45. PedleyCA:


Think I'll run out an get an additional sandbag......


Careful, your truck my flood out. Don't drive through any deep puddles where you can't see the bottom.
Thanks dok!
El Nino hype in 2015 vs 2013 destructive hurricane season. will it be the same? in 2013 there was this hype for this over active 2013 season, this time around it is El Nino. June too soon and will be on July standby.
We have a New European record on highest temperature in May
At least 3 station is over the old one (41,9 °C from this year in Catanenuova)
Preliminary data:
Carcaixent 42,9 °C
Xativa 42,7 °C
Valencia Aeropurto 42,5 °C
http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/observacion/ultim osdatos?k=esp&w=1&datos=img
Anyone got numbers on how active the East Pacific will be this season? I think 25-12-8
Quoting 50. 62901IL:

Anyone got numbers on how active the East Pacific will be this season? I think 25-12-8


Let's make it to Alpha!

I'd say we could hit 20 pretty soundly, 22-11-6
Quoting 51. win1gamegiantsplease:



Let's make it to Alpha!

I'd say we could hit 20 pretty soundly, 22-11-6


22-11-6.

SMU: 19-11-6

You both are pretty close.
first tropical wave could of the season could be at 5E.
Most shocking on these temperatures is for me that they are so far away from old highest May temperature records. For example on Valencia Aeroport record has been only 36,0 °C on May 14th 1999
http://www.aemet.es/en/serviciosclimaticos/datosc limatologicos/efemerides_extremos*?w=0&k=val&l=841 4A&datos=det&x=8414A&m=5&v=TMX
Quoting 52. 62901IL:



22-11-6.

SMU: 19-11-6

You both are pretty close.


Using 1997 as an analog which saw 19 named storms 7 majors including Guillermo.
Quoting 54. MichalBogar:

Most shocking on these temperatures is for me that they are so far away from old highest May temperature records. For example on Valencia Aeroport record has been only 36,0 °C on May 14th 1999
http://www.aemet.es/en/serviciosclimaticos/datosc limatologicos/efemerides_extremos*?w=0&k=val&a mp;l=841 4A&datos=det&x=8414A&m=5&v=TMX



This El-Nino seems to be releasing a lot of heat across the Globe. Dreading the summer here in FL considering how hot its been the last 10 weeks.
Quoting 55. win1gamegiantsplease:



Using 1997 as an analog which saw 19 named storms 7 majors including Guillermo.



Ah. I see.
Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:

From the CPC folks. LOL

May 2015 ENSO Forecast: Will this El Niño be an overachiever, or peaked-in-high-school?


We should ask "The Christ Child" whether he watches cable or directv

Quoting 58. win1gamegiantsplease:



We should ask "The Christ Child" whether he watches cable or directv




You mean JFV?
Possible good news for Guam. More toward Saipan maybe
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
152 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

FLZ011-013-016-026-GAZ155-156-141815-
GADSDEN FL-JACKSON FL-JACKSON FL-CALHOUN FL-LIBERTY FL-DECATUR GA-
SEMINOLE GA-SEMINOLE GA-DECATUR GA-
152 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT ACROSS
GADSEN...JACKSON...CALHOUN...LIBERTY...DECATUR AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES...

AT 151 PM EDT /1251 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAINBRIDGE...GREENSBORO...CHATTAHOOCHEE...WEST BAINBRIDGE...ORANGE...
SNEADS...BRISTOL...ATTAPULGUS...CLIMAX...BRINSON.. .ROCK BLUFF...
VADA...WOODS...RIVER JUNCTION...HARDIN HEIGHTS...LYNN...AMSTERDAM...
RED HILL...SYCAMORE AND JUNIPER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&
Looking better....

hope no tornado's......................................... ................
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I remember Texas having it's own dry air high pressure system.Glad to see them getting lots and lots of rain.They deserve it after that rough drought.
67. JRRP

I am in Gadsden County today (per the post below from Tally NWS), some rain and some rumbles of lightening but no wind gusts yet or hail..............Will let yall know if I get any hail; not a common occurance in these parts (Big Bend-Tallahassee). Been here 14 years and have only seen hail twice with a nice hailstorm around the FSU campus one weekend afternoon in March two years ago (marble sized).
69. vis0
CREDIT:: aviation.gov
D&T:: on anigif
SUBJECT:: wPac's Dolphin via POV of Dolphin's AOI
NOTE:: Do not use this for any planning purposes please listen to professional advice from authorities trained in emergency management.

image host
Updated Typhoon Dolphin position :



71. vis0
CREDIT:: Aviationweather.gov
D&T:: On mp4
SUBJECT:: 2015 Typhoon Noul aka Typhoon Dodong flung by the Trough/Jetstream...some might say it was bah-eee slippity saaah-lap'D (gotta create an txt emoticon for that) by Pac Rim's version of Cap'n Trough
http://youtu.be/OJB0n2d-AuY(org320x240@320x240)


With the addition of Himawari 8 (which replaces MTSAT-2), we now have operational 10-minute satellite animations. This will be helpful moving forward for cyclones undergoing rapid intensity changes.

Infrared loop of Dolphin

Visible loop (sun is coming up soon)
73. vis0
Quoting 58. win1gamegiantsplease:



We should ask "The Christ Child" whether he watches cable or directv


neither, Nio reads MAD magazine (1950s-1990s softcover & mag only) we need a 4 fold Jaffe fold over, from last yrs Nio to this years (latter third of yr) Nio
Quoting 64. LargoFl:

hope no tornado's......................................... ................




It appears to be an isolated tornado threat... for now.
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