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Intensifying Tropical Storm Dolphin a Threat to Guam

By: Jeff Masters 2:12 PM GMT on May 12, 2015

In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Dolphin is gathering strength in the waters to the east of the U.S. Mariana Islands, and is a threat to bring typhoon conditions to those islands--including Guam--on Thursday. The 8 am EDT Tuesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Dolphin's winds at 60 mph, and JTWC predicted the storm would reach Category 1 typhoon strength by Wednesday morning (EDT.) The latest 00Z Tuesday run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model show Dolphin passing within 50 miles of Guam as an intensifying typhoon sometime between 21 UTC Thursday and 06 UTC Friday (Thursday night U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.) Satellite loops show that Dolphin significantly increased in organization on Tuesday morning, with more low-level spiral banding and an increase in the intensity and areal coverage of its heavy thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near 29°C (84°F), and warm waters extend to great depth along Dolphin's track, giving it plenty of heat energy to draw upon for intensification. Wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low through Friday. Dolphin should be able to intensify to Category 2 typhoon status by the time it reaches Guam, and may rapidly intensify, potentially affecting Guam as a major Category 3 or stronger typhoon. Guam will likely be the last land area Dolphin will affect, as a strong trough of low pressure should recurve the storm to the north out to sea late this weekend. The GFS model is also advertising that a new tropical storm will form this weekend in the waters east of Guam, but it is too early to be confident of this prediction.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dolphin as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 02:50 UTC May 12, 2015. At the time, Dolphin had sustained winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The last typhoon on Guam: thirteen years ago
The last typhoon to strike Guam was Typhoon Pongsona, which hit the island as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds on December 8, 2002. Sustained winds of 144 mph with gusts to 173 mph were recorded on the island, and Andersen Air Force Base was in the eye for two hours. The lowest pressure on Guam was 935 millibars, making Pongsona the third most intense typhoon to strike the island (the others: a 1900 typhoon with a 926 mb pressure, and Typhoon Karen of 1962, at 932 mb). With strong building standards and experience from repeated typhoon strikes (six typhoons in the previous ten years), there were no direct deaths from Pongsona's strike--but one indirect death from flying glass, and 193 injuries. Damage was over $700 million (2002 US$, $918 million 2015 USD), making Pongsona among the five costliest typhoons on the island. The typhoon also caused heavy damage on Rota and elsewhere in the Northern Mariana Islands, and as a result of its impact, the name Pongsona was retired. The last tropical storm to affect Guam was Tropical Storm Saomai of August 2006, which had 50 mph winds when it moved over the island.


Figure 2. Extensive damage on Guam caused by Typhoon Pongsona December 8, 2002. Image credit: Andrea Booher, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Digital Visual Library.

A record early start to typhoon season
May is exceptionally early for Guam to be worrying about a typhoon; according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, no typhoon has affected the island in the months of February through June since record keeping began in 1945 (one January storm, Typhoon Roy of 1988, did pass near Guam in January, though.) Guam's early typhoon worries this year reflect how crazy-busy the early part of the 2015 typhoon season has been. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) gave Tropical Storm Dolphin its name on May 9. According to statistics from the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon, this was the earliest appearance on record of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year. The previous record was May 19, 1971 (Carla.) Usually by this time of year, just two named storms have appeared; the seventh storm of the year typically doesn't form until the third week of July. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the seven storms so far in 2015 have been unusually strong: Northwest Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was at record high through May 11 (78.1), just ahead of the old record of 77.7 in 1957. The early and violent start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event. 

Storm chaser Jim Edds is on Guam, and will be documenting the impact of Dolphin on the island via his Twitter feed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

way out in time but GFS takes a low off cuba,into South florida then up into Tampa bay area.........
Small storm producing lots of lightning in Titusville. Storms may not look much but they are efficient lightning producers for so early in the day.

With strong building standards and experience from repeated typhoon strikes (six typhoons in the previous ten years), there were no direct deaths from Pongsona's strike--but one indirect death from flying glass, and 193 injuries.

What is the standard for a direct death then?
I think the odds of seeing Bill before the season starts is slim to none, due to the range that this is set in.
Quoting 1. LargoFl:

way out in time but GFS takes a low off cuba,into South florida then up into Tampa bay area.........
I will be shocked to see another tropical system hitting CONUS this early in May!
Spoke with my brother on Guam last night.

He has a 55' Catamaran that he needs to get out of the water.

It has been a while since they have been hit.
Quoting 6. FyrtleMyrtle:

I will be shocked to see another tropical system hitting CONUS this early in May!
I would too, but if this was August, i would understand.
Quoting 8. HurricaneAndre:

I would too, but if this was August, i would understand.



it really dos not matter if we are in Jue july AUGS or a few moths down the rd if wind shear is too high we wont march of any things i think that is some in your not getting
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.UPDATE...
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATED ON MORNING TBW SOUNDING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 1.2 INCHES...BUT XMR AND MFL
SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AND THE RATHER DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING THIS MOISTURE WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY. THEREFORE...THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION POP UP. HAVE TWEAKED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AND GONE
CLOSER TO OUR LATEST HI-RES MODEL POPS WHICH LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
SOME THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND
KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. STILL HAVE 30 TO 50 POPS
FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE GONE WITH 70 PERCENT
FROM AROUND SARASOTA SOUTH THROUGH FORT MYERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG SEA BREEZE. EARLY TONIGHT
THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE WEST OUT INTO THE GULF AND WIND DOWN WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY SENT
GRID UPDATE AND WILL SEND ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.
st Updated 5/12/2015, 7:00:00 AM (CDT)
Location 9.9N 202.8E Movement W at 8 mph
Wind 60 MPH
Other Storm Information

Learn more about Tropical Storm Dolphin and the 2015 Western Pacific hurricane season here.

Coordinates | Discussions | Public Advisory
000
wdpn32 pgtw 121500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 07w (dolphin) warning
nr 24//
rmks/


1. For meteorologists.

2. 6 hour summary and analysis.

Tropical Storm (TS) 07w (dolphin), located approximately 757 nm
east-southeast of andersen AFB, Guam, has tracked westward at 07
knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery shows the system has slightly deepened as formative bands
continue to consolidate. However, the low level circulation center
remains obscured by a cold dense overcast feature. The initial
position is extrapolated from a 121036z ascat pass with fair
confidence.

The initial intensity is based on an overall assessment
of Dvorak estimates from pgtw, knes, and rjtd. Upper level analysis
indicates that the system is in area of low vertical wind shear (vws)
and good equatorward outflow. Additionally, a poleward outflow
channel has become apparent. The cyclone is currently tracking along
the southern periphery of an extension of a deep-layered subtropical
ridge (str) to the northwest.

3. Forecast reasoning.

A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from
the previous prognostic reasoning message.

B. Ts 07w will continue to track generally westward under the
influence of the str through tau 36. Afterwards, the system will
take a more west-northwestward track as the str is weakened by a
transitory mid-latitude trough passing through Japan. The cyclone is
forecast to gradually intensify as favorable upper level conditions
persist in addition to warm along-track sea surface temperatures.

C. In the extended forecast period, ts Dolphin will track
increasingly more northwestward as it tracks into the break in the
str caused by the aforementioned trough. Continued favorable
environment with increasing poleward outflow will favor a more rapid
intensification towards the later Taus
. Dynamic model guidance is in
good agreement, lending high confidence in the jtwc track forecast.

//
Nnnn

Quoting 5. HurricaneAndre:

I think the odds of seeing Bill before the season starts is slim to none, due to the range that this is set in.
yes way too far out in time to believe
Quoting 10. tampabaymatt:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.UPDATE...
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATED ON MORNING TBW SOUNDING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 1.2 INCHES...BUT XMR AND MFL
SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AND THE RATHER DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING THIS MOISTURE WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY. THEREFORE...THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION POP UP. HAVE TWEAKED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AND GONE
CLOSER TO OUR LATEST HI-RES MODEL POPS WHICH LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
SOME THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND
KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. STILL HAVE 30 TO 50 POPS
FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE GONE WITH 70 PERCENT
FROM AROUND SARASOTA SOUTH THROUGH FORT MYERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG SEA BREEZE. EARLY TONIGHT
THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE WEST OUT INTO THE GULF AND WIND DOWN WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY SENT
GRID UPDATE AND WILL SEND ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.



Very typical summer pattern. A bit early for the west coast. Hillsboro County got hit pretty good yesterday.
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

Small storm producing lots of lightning in Titusville. Storms may not look much but they are efficient lightning producers for so early in the day.




I don't know that I see lot's of lightning on that graphic but it does look like a pretty active day across Florida. NWS increased rain chances today along the west coast south of Tampa Bay. The sea breezes are in control.
Thanks Doc..13 years already.
Quoting 13. LargoFl:





Did we already forget the ghost storms from last year? Apparently yes.
Quoting 17. TimTheWxMan:




Did we already forget the ghost storms from last year? Apparently yes.
yes indeed but one must also remember each and every year is different.
Quoting 9. Tazmanian:




it really dos not matter if we are in Jue july AUGS or a few moths down the rd if wind shear is too high we wont march of any things i think that is some in your not getting
So due to El Niño, we will not see much huh. I understand that point if this is correct.
Quoting 17. TimTheWxMan:




Did we already forget the ghost storms from last year? Apparently yes.


Personally, I like when the GFS shows tropical cyclones hitting my location at 384 hours. That pretty much means there is about a 0.05% chance of it happening due to the statistical probability trend of long range models, so I breath a little sigh of relief.
In a region that has already suffered so much since April 25, the situation became even worse last night as a M7.3 earthquake struck east-northeast of Kathmandu. BBC is reporting 37 dead in Nepal and 17 dead in India, as well as over 1,000 injuries.

Link
5. 1. 1997 362.94
4. 5. 1997 366.65
year 1997 366.98 maximum
4. 1. 2015 399.83
3. 5. 2015 404.11

That s 10% more CO2 since 1997 super el nino, that should give some additional boost to the typhoons.
Quoting 20. tampabaymatt:



Personally, I like when the GFS shows tropical cyclones hitting my location at 384 hours. That pretty much means there is about a 0.05% chance of it happening due to the statistical probability trend of long range models, so I breath a little sigh of relief.


PersonalyI think your 0.05% is too high:) You need to add a few more zeros in front of the 5.
lol point proven...so many people have told me why, they don't post in here anymore..too much negativity.
Dr Masters, let's not forget Super Typhoon Pamela, 1976 that hit Guam on May 21st with 150 mph winds. I was stationed at Anderson AFB when the eye crossed the island.

Courtesy of Wikipedia:

Typhoon Pamela was a powerful typhoon that struck the U.S. territory of Guam in May 1976, causing about $500 million in damage (USD). The sixth named storm and third typhoon of the 1976 Pacific typhoon season, Pamela developed on May 14 from a trough in the Federated States of Micronesia in the area of the Nomoi Islands. It executed a counterclockwise loop and slowly intensified, bringing heavy rains to the islands in the region. Ten people died on Chuuk due to a landslide. After beginning a steady northwest motion toward Guam, Pamela attained its peak winds of 240 km/h (150 mph).

On May 21, the large eye of the typhoon crossed Guam, producing typhoon-force winds (greater than 118 km/h or 73 mph) for a period of 18 hours. An estimated 80% of the buildings on the island were damaged to some degree, including 3,300 houses that were destroyed. Pamela's slow motion produced 856 mm (33.7 in) of rainfall, making May 1976 the wettest on record in Guam. Despite the high damage, there was only one death due to well-executed warnings. After affecting the island, the typhoon weakened and turned northeastward, passing near Iwo Jima before becoming an extratropical cyclone.
I can't wait too see what happens in the fall with the typhoons has they head N and in too CA

lol point proven...so many people have told me why, they don't post in here anymore..too much negativity.

i've seen no negativity this morning....did i miss something?
Quoting 24. LargoFl:

lol point proven...so many people have told me why, they don't post in here anymore..too much negativity.
Hey lighten up there buddy, I don't think anyone is being negative towards you. Just being realistic that the chance of a storm showing up at 384 hrs. hitting Tampa Bay is almost slim to none. I could also go on vacation for 16 days and comeback to seeing that storm hit someplace else, not even developed at all, or pushed back in time.
Fair warning, last time Nola Roux had pups was smack in the middle of Hurricane Isaac in Aug 2012.

She now due to deliver mid June..another litter.

You have been fore warned.
Quoting 29. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey lighten up there buddy, I don't think anyone is being negative towards you. Just being realistic that the chance of a storm showing up at 384 hrs. hitting Tampa Bay is almost slim to none. I could also go on vacation for 16 days and comeback to seeing that storm hit someplace else, not even developed at all, or pushed back in time.
I agree, I would never be negative towards anybody. And if I ever do it to you, just let me know. Just like Caleb said, stay positive. Always stay positive.
Quoting 27. Tazmanian:

I can't wait too see what happens in the fall with the typhoons has they head N and in too CA
Me too. Hopefully California gets out of this nightmare.
Fair warning, last time Nola Roux had pups was smack in the middle of Hurricane Isaac in Aug 2012.

She now due to deliver mid June..another litter.

You have been fore warned.



in other words......better than a ten day forecast model..........TA DA DA BOOM!
Quoting 4. win1gamegiantsplease:

With strong building standards and experience from repeated typhoon strikes (six typhoons in the previous ten years), there were no direct deaths from Pongsona's strike--but one indirect death from flying glass, and 193 injuries.

What is the standard for a direct death then?

I took a look at the Wikipedia entry and it said the woman got hit with glass, and then later died from a heart attack... guess that counts as "indirect".
Lol.A storm named Dolphin XD.At first I thought it was a joke but I see it is not.
Quoting 27. Tazmanian:

I can't wait too see what happens in the fall with the typhoons has they head N and in too CA


typhoon hitting CA....What are the odds???



here we go again!!
"...there were no direct deaths from Pongsona's strike--but one indirect death from flying glass, and 193 injuries."

How is flying glass an indirect death?
Quoting 34. auspiv:


I took a look at the Wikipedia entry and it said the woman got hit with glass, and then later died from a heart attack... guess that counts as "indirect".


Well then that is indirect, I think the Doc could've added that bit to avoid confusion. Death by flying glass might as well be death by fallen tree.
Quoting 39. win1gamegiantsplease:



Well then that is indirect, I think the Doc could've added that bit to avoid confusion. Death by flying glass might as well be death by fallen tree.


Thanks for the clarification. Very helpful.
The one saving grace to this current El Nino in getting out of control strong is the fact of the Super typhoons developing in the Western pacific. Remember Typhoons or Hurricanes are heat engines that feed off the LATENT HEAT of the warm moist oceans. Typhoons or Hurricanes are also movers of heat. So with that being said, if enough typhoons develop in the Western Pacific it will redistribute the heat around the globe. Thus affecting our weather here too. Remember everyone the last several years a super typhoon would develop in the Western Pacific and affect the Jetstream actually bringing the U.S. cooler to colder conditions. All I am saying is the more frequent and intense the typhoons in the El Nino regions of the Pacific the greater affect on El Nino
Quoting 37. hurricanes2018:




here we go again!!
GFS loves doing this early in the season.
However from the last inserted blog of mine I do want to make the point that El Nino also affects the Super Typhoons as well. You can tell how intense these typhoons are getting feeding off the warm waters of the Western Pacific
Quoting 30. Patrap:

Fair warning, last time Nola Roux had pups was smack in the middle of Hurricane Isaac in Aug 2012.

She now due to deliver mid June..another litter.

You have been fore warned.



My red ants have issued a concurring forecast.
On the plus side from their action, I've probably gained another foot elevation to ward off the storm surge.
;)
Quoting 44. DocNDswamp:



My red ants have issued a concurring forecast.
On the plus side from their action, I've probably gained another foot elevation to ward off the storm surge.
;)



They fairly good engineers eh Doc?
The Atlas of Gerardo Canet and Erwin Raisz, of Harvard University 1949!!! For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link







Quoting 41. WeatherConvoy:

The one saving grace to this current El Nino in getting out of control strong is the fact of the Super typhoons developing in the Western pacific. Remember Typhoons or Hurricanes are heat engines that feed off the LATENT HEAT of the warm moist oceans. Typhoons or Hurricanes are also movers of heat. So with that being said, if enough typhoons develop in the Western Pacific it will redistribute the heat around the globe. Thus affecting our weather here too. Remember everyone the last several years a super typhoon would develop in the Western Pacific and affect the Jetstream actually bringing the U.S. cooler to colder conditions. All I am saying is the more frequent and intense the typhoons in the El Nino regions of the Pacific the greater affect on El Nino

Yes, but Typhoons in the WPAC also do two things that can increase the potency of an El Nino - they help initiate (and strengthen) Westerly Wind Bursts, AND they "remove" latent heat from the WPAC, which is also indicative of El Nino (cooling in the WPAC with warming in the EPAC)
48. JRRP
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

Lol.A storm named Dolphin XD.At first I thought it was a joke but I see it is not.


Dolphin is actually a pretty cool name for a typhoon, and this Dolphin will become the ocean overlord soon, W pac is "cooking" another super typhoon.
*****Breaking News****

Hot off the press from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology



Link

El Nio in the tropical Pacific
The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Nio. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Nio status.

The first oficial El Nio since 2009-10.


Tropical Cyclones:
Noul hits Japan as post-tropical cyclone


Severe Tropical Storm Dolphin prepares to become another Super Typhoon:


Reorganizing the outflow:


Future Kujira:


A little weird because is moving to South i guess:


Future Raquel maybe??



Future Ashobaa or just monsoon tropical depression???


Around the World:
Low pressure area causes heavy rainfall, swells and strong winds in South Brazil:


In Ararangu, Santa Catarina State rained more than 8 inches of rain in less than 24 hours yesterday. All southeast of Santa Catarina had more than at least 3 inches of rain in less than 24 hours yesterday with strong winds. Florianopolis had more than 5 hours with winds higher than 40 mph, sometimes beating 68 mph.
Photo: Ararangu, Santa Catarina (Source: Radio Eldorado):


I'm sorry is in Portuguese but...Look this winds:

Winds higher than 80 mph.

Rain, 8.48 inches:


Source: Climatempo.com.br
Hey guys
You want to know the sad thing about this whole "GFS" "ghost storm" "pre season storm" thing
GFS may be correct about another storm and it may not even be a ghost storm at all
Hell I remember in mid-late April/very early May when GFS showed Ana in its long range timeframe most of ya was screaming GFS ghost storm and you saw it happen
I mean it's not like 2 storm before June is unheard of we've seen this happen before infact 2 storms in May happened recently
A sadder thing it could be just a ghost storm
Truth is we just have to wait it out see what happen
Lets all stay positive, look after each other. I say this because we are a small community of weather enthusiasts or weather professionals and we are all right some times but nobody is right all the time.
Quoting 50. pablosyn:

*****Breaking News****

Hot off the press from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology



Link

El Ni�o in the tropical Pacific
The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Ni�o. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Ni�o status.

The first oficial El Ni�o since 2009-10.


Tropical Cyclones:
Noul hits Japan as post-tropical cyclone


Severe Tropical Storm Dolphin prepares to become another Super Typhoon:


Reorganizing the outflow:


Future Kujira:


A little weird because is moving to South i guess:


Future Raquel maybe??



Future Ashobaa or just monsoon tropical depression???


Around the World:
Low pressure area causes heavy rainfall, swells and strong winds in South Brazil:


In Ararangu�, Santa Catarina State rained more than 8 inches of rain in less than 24 hours yesterday. All southeast of Santa Catarina had more than at least 3 inches of rain in less than 24 hours yesterday with strong winds. Florianopolis had more than 5 hours with winds higher than 40 mph, sometimes beating 68 mph.
Photo: Ararangu�, Santa Catarina (Source: Radio Eldorado):


I'm sorry is in Portuguese but...Look this winds:

Winds higher than 80 mph.

Rain, 8.48 inches:


Source: Climatempo.com.br



First of all that is not breaking news we been having El Niño for a good while now
It's not hot off the press
And Aussiestorm brought it to our attention yesterday evening
BTW. I do love Tropical Cyclones and I don't wish harm on anyone but I am cheering the GFS between hrs 300-384
Quoting 47. jeffs713:


Yes, but Typhoons in the WPAC also do two things that can increase the potency of an El Nino - they help initiate (and strengthen) Westerly Wind Bursts, AND they "remove" latent heat from the WPAC, which is also indicative of El Nino (cooling in the WPAC with warming in the EPAC)
Jeff I agree with that as well. Good Point
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

Small storm producing lots of lightning in Titusville. Storms may not look much but they are efficient lightning producers for so early in the day.




We've been getting some sea breeze storms everyday since Saturday. They've been hit or miss, but they've been intense. We've had severe thunderstorm warnings on a few of the storms (very intense lightning - summer type T storms).


Quoting 17. TimTheWxMan:




Did we already forget the ghost storms from last year? Apparently yes.


Pretty tough for me to forget. I still haven't repaired all the ghost damage from last year.
If were to occur this WWB by the end of May could end up being stronger than the WWB that occurred the end of May 1997 which jump started the Super El-Nino. Trending stronger with each passing run.





Quoting 57. BobinTampa:



Pretty tough for me to forget. I still haven't repaired all the ghost damage from last year.


Yeah, after last year it will take some time for people to pay attention to anything in the 300+ hour time frame. Last year the GFS had about a 1% average predicting storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico beyond 7-10 days.
Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:



We've been getting some sea breeze storms everyday since Saturday. They've been hit or miss, but they've been intense. We've had severe thunderstorm warnings on a few of the storms (very intense lightning - summer type T storms).





HRRR model shows lots of storms by you later today.
Quoting 59. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, after last year it will take some time for people to pay attention to anything in the 300+ hour time frame. Last year the GFS had about a 1% average predicting storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico beyond 7-10 days.


I don't even look past 156hrs on the GFS anymore. Model has been complete garbage the last couple of years.
The Atlas of Gerardo Canet and Erwin Raisz, of Harvard University 1949!!! For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link

If anyone is interested you can keep track of these WWB by using the link below.

Link
Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link
Ironic, because I believe Guam once got hit with 5 typhoons in one year (early 90's I believe).

Quoting 7. cytochromeC:

Spoke with my brother on Guam last night.

He has a 55' Catamaran that he needs to get out of the water.

It has been a while since they have been hit.
Quoting 52. WeatherConvoy:

Lets all stay positive, look after each other. I say this because we are a small community of weather enthusiasts or weather professionals and we are all right some times but nobody is right all the time.
That's right Convoy, we need to stay positive. I've learned my lesson in here.
Quoting 62. Gustavike:

The Atlas of Gerardo Canet and Erwin Raisz, of Harvard University 1949!!! For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link




Nice to have someone on from Cuba. How is everything down there?
somethings that bear looking into as we compare el nino 97/98 to current.....things i've never thought to check but have just crossed my mind as i sit here in front of my computer screen..........i think we can agree that timing of the kelvin waves are close......we can agree that timing of the initial WWB are close...although in 97 we saw a rise of sst anomalies immediately afterwards of 1.0 c across the board and this time we actually short term rise in SST anomalies...the timing is similar.....now we can agree that areas that would typically have cooler sst's are actually warmer....and except for the last week due to tropical cyclones...the SOI has been in neutral values....

soooo....here's what spinning in my head....

what was the rise in oni from march through now during 97 as compared to today

when did 97 become classified as strong

weren't there multiple kelvin waves that drove 97 to a strong event or was it one......

time to do some checking
Quoting 22. NoobDave:

5. 1. 1997 362.94
4. 5. 1997 366.65
year 1997 366.98 maximum
4. 1. 2015 399.83
3. 5. 2015 404.11

That s 10% more CO2 since 1997 super el nino, that should give some additional boost to the typhoons.
Hi Noob, what does CO2 have to do with more typhoons?
Quoting 68. ricderr:

somethings that bear looking into as we compare el nino 97/98 to current.....things i've never thought to check but have just crossed my mind as i sit here in front of my computer screen..........i think we can agree that timing of the kelvin waves are close......we can agree that timing of the initial WWB are close...although in 97 we saw a rise of sst anomalies immediately afterwards of 1.0 c across the board and this time we actually short term rise in SST anomalies...the timing is similar.....now we can agree that areas that would typically have cooler sst's are actually warmer....and except for the last week due to tropical cyclones...the SOI has been in neutral values....

soooo....here's what spinning in my head....

what was the rise in oni from march through now during 97 as compared to today

when did 97 become classified as strong

weren't there multiple kelvin waves that drove 97 to a strong event or was it one......

time to do some checking


Well here's this. You can't get more identical than this. Also here is the ONI you requested Link

2015


1997
Thanks for the update Dr Masters.

After a storm last week that rained out over 1" at my place.......they are calling for another digging trof/ULL down the west coast and into Soo Cal......It seems this is how we get most of our rain nowadays. Anyway hope this forecast comes to fruition for Th-Sat time frame.




.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR
POINT CONCEPTION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS. THE 12/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING
DISPLAYED A 6 DEGREE C MARINE LAYER INVERSION WITH THE BASE AROUND
2000 FT MSL.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL RETURN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL AND CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS FOR THE PERIOD.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO DIFFER SOME
IN THE DETAILS. THE 12/0600 UTC GFS MOVES THE LOW SLIGHTLY
QUICKER AND TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE 12/0000 UTC ECMWF. THE
GFS HAS ALSO BACKED OFF SOME ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH...THIS COULD CHANGE AGAIN WITH THE 12 UTC RUN. PRECIP IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS NOW FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND ARE SHOWING MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH BOTH OF
THE WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS SW CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL
HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7500 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
DESERTS.............0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST AND VALLEYS...0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...........1.00 TO 2.25 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
6000 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 4 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...4 TO 8 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....8 TO 10 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES
For Comparison purposes:

Current 2015 El Nino sea surface temperature anomaly signature:



1997 El Nino sea surface temperature anomaly signature for September:



The current El Nino is getting there we still have 4 months to see if it can get to the strength of '97.
73. JRRP

Quoting 64. Gustavike:

Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link

BUT WHY POST SO MANY TIMES??
Poll time: The storm the GFS has hitting the west coast of Florida in 300+ hrs will more than likely....
A) Hit the west coast of Florida
B) Not develop at all
C) hit somewhere else
D) keep being pushed ahead in time frame until eventually it does develop, say in like, mid or late June

I go with D, lol
Quoting 73. JRRP:





Big change from last months run.
eh, ehmm...It can certainly happen. Anyone here remember Alberto and Beryl May 2012? It almost happened in 2007, but I think that TS Barry technically formed on June 1 of that year.
Quoting 5. HurricaneAndre:

I think the odds of seeing Bill before the season starts is slim to none, due to the range that this is set in.
Portlight Blog: Another Earthquake strikes Nepal



Nepal experienced another major earthquake today, magnitude 7.3, with at least 48 people killed and over 1200 injured. Portlight is assisting our brothers and sisters with disabilities by supporting the work of the Spinal Injury and Rehabilitation Center - Nepal, and the Kathmandu Independent Living Center.There is still much work to be done, so we ask that you consider donating to our Portlight-Nepal Earthquake Fund, and please share this post with your friends and family. Nothing we do is possible without you, and we're eternally grateful for your generous support of our efforts!
Quoting 69. NativeSun:

Hi Noob, what does CO2 have to do with more typhoons?


Hi, I didn t really say that there will be more typhoons or at the very least it s not what I meant...higher ocean temperature should give it some additional power boost and given the fact that this el nino likely won t fall apart soon we may be in for a record breaking season with some extremely strong typhoons as the world oceans are absorbing more and more heat energy .
81. JRRP
Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:



Big change from last months run.

yeah
Quoting 75. lobdelse81:

Poll time: The storm the GFS has hitting the west coast of Florida in 300+ hrs will more than likely....
A) Hit the west coast of Florida
B) Not develop at all
C) hit somewhere else
D) keep being pushed ahead in time frame until eventually it does develop, say in like, mid or late June

I go with D, lol


This is a point less poll
U.S. Marine helicopter missing in Nepal earthquake aid mission
The Associated PressLOLITA C. BALDOR

May 12th 2015 2:04PM


WASHINGTON (AP) -- A U.S. military helicopter carrying six Marines and two Nepalese Army soldiers went missing during a mission in Nepal delivering aid to earthquake victims, U.S. defense officials said Tuesday, but so far there have been no indications that the aircraft crashed.
U.S. Army Col. Steve Warren said an Indian helicopter in the air nearby at the time heard radio chatter about a possible fuel problem. He said the Huey had dropped off supplies in one location and was en route to a second site when contact was lost. He said officials are hopeful that the aircraft is simply missing because there has been no smoke or other signs of a crash.

Navy Capt. Chris Sims says the Huey was conducting disaster relief operations near Charikot, Nepal, on Tuesday, around 9 a.m. EDT.
Warren said other U.S. aircraft had searched the area, but because it's now dark members of the Nepalese military are conducting the search on foot. He said they are moving toward the second aid location to see if the helicopter landed near there.
The aircraft is part of Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 469.

The incident is under investigation.
Quoting 72. GTstormChaserCaleb:

For Comparison purposes:

Current 2015 El Nino sea surface temperature anomaly signature:



1997 El Nino sea surface temperature anomaly signature for September:



The current El Nino is getting there we still have 4 months to see if it can get to the strength of '97.


This year ahead with the kelvin wave.
1.10" of rain here in Altamonte Springs so far. Very heavy rains at the present time. Nothing at my house though.
Quoting 61. StormTrackerScott:



I don't even look past 156hrs on the GFS anymore. Model has been complete garbage the last couple of years.


For me it's 6 days or 144 hours. I stop at that point at any model run I'm looking at.
Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:

1.10" of rain here in Altamonte Springs so far. Very heavy rains at the present time. Nothing at my house though.


Storms are popping up all over. Should be quite active for the next 5 hours or so.
Quoting 53. wunderkidcayman:



First of all that is not breaking news we been having El Niño for a good while now
It's not hot off the press
And Aussiestorm brought it to our attention yesterday evening

Not everyone reads through the entirety of the blog comments, especially when the blog posts are occurring more frequently lately. Perhaps he didn't see Aussie's post.

I liked Pablo's post - it was comprehensive in regards to El Nino status, current tropical storms, potential tropical storms, and he included the latest information from his local area as well.
Quoting 87. Bucsboltsfan:



Storms are popping up all over. Should be quite active for the next 5 hours or so.


Small storm here at my office but still no rain at my place over by Apopka. Still storms reforming though in Orange County which could grow bigger.
Quoting 66. HurricaneAndre:

That's right Convoy, we need to stay positive. I've learned my lesson in here.
Quoting 90. Gearsts:




Despite being El-Nino the CFS has a wet forecast for you guys the end of May. Gets really wet here too but the looks of the Euro.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC071-122000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0008.150512T1933Z-150512T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LOCHMOOR WATERWAY ESTATES TO HARLEM HEIGHTS...AND
MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...CYPRESS LAKE...ST. JAMES CITY...PINE
MANOR...MATLACHA ISLES-MATLACHA SHORES...MATLACHA...EAST DUNBAR...
PINELAND...PINE ISLAND CENTER...IONA...PALMONA PARK...LOCHMOOR
WATERWAY ESTATES...VILLAS...MCGREGOR...HARLEM HEIGHTS...SAN CARLOS
PARK...BURNT STORE MARINA...FORT MYERS VILLAS AND PAGE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&
Bloggers just for a reference point for this ongoing El Nino which looks more impressive everyday. Everyone compares this current El Nino with the 97-98 El Nino which was a Very Strong el Nino. But don't sleep on comparing this current El Nino with the 82-83 El Nino which was stronger than 97-98. I believe 97-98 was -2.6. The 1982-1983 El Nino was closer to -3.0.
Well here's this. You can't get more identical than this. Also here is the ONI you requested Link


and scott....we can agree with that.......a big difference is that in 97 we started with la nina neutral and this year we started with actual el nino conditions....does that mean we'll end the same.....or since we haven't had the same upward movement this year as rapidly and as high as we did in 97.....does that mean we won't evolve as high.....according to many experts that you and i both read......they'v alluded to the fact that models are higher this year than in 97 due to the higher temp anomalies now versus 97......but if that was the case...wouldn't we be seeing the same rise as in 97...all things being equal and all.....also...i'm finding talk of multiple kelvin waves in 97...but can't see any evidence....if that is the case.....then...what is the outcome if we don't duplicate these kelvin waves this year......i'm pretty sure i know what conclusions you would draw...and i'm pretty sure mine are opposing.....just gives me something to preuse the web about this afternoon
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:



Small storm here at my office but still no rain at my place over by Apopka. Still storms reforming though in Orange County which could grow bigger.


Storms have turned severe in sw Florida. They need the rain but can do without damage.
Quoting 94. WeatherConvoy:

Bloggers just for a reference point for this ongoing El Nino which looks more impressive everyday. Everyone compares this current El Nino with the 97-98 El Nino which was a Very Strong el Nino. But don't sleep on comparing this current El Nino with the 82-83 El Nino which was stronger than 97-98. I believe 97-98 was -2.6. The 1982-1983 El Nino was closer to -3.0.


Official ENSO records - 97-98 was the strongest, with 82-83 in second place. There is indirect evidence for stronger El Nino episodes prior to official recordkeeping, but nothing official.
Quoting 95. ricderr:

Well here's this. You can't get more identical than this. Also here is the ONI you requested Link


and scott....we can agree with that.......a big difference is that in 97 we started with la nina neutral and this year we started with actual el nino conditions....does that mean we'll end the same.....or since we haven't had the same upward movement this year as rapidly and as high as we did in 97.....does that mean we won't evolve as high.....according to many experts that you and i both read......they'v alluded to the fact that models are higher this year than in 97 due to the higher temp anomalies now versus 97......but if that was the case...wouldn't we be seeing the same rise as in 97...all things being equal and all.....also...i'm finding talk of multiple kelvin waves in 97...but can't see any evidence....if that is the case.....then...what is the outcome if we don't duplicate these kelvin waves this year......i'm pretty sure i know what conclusions you would draw...and i'm pretty sure mine are opposing.....just gives me something to preuse the web about this afternoon


Ric your right in your assessment but we need to see what happens come late May as there is forecast to be a major WWB that crosses the Pacific while remaining fairly stout. I think its at that point come late May/ early June that we see a pretty nice up tick in SST across Nino 3.4 to Nino 1&2. Well see.
Today marks the 10th straight day of 80-degree weather in Washington, D.C., a streak unprecedented in the first half of May in modern records (which date back to 1872).
Link
the western carib could use a good dose of heavy precipitation. a tropical disturbance festering there could do alot of good.
Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:

1.10" of rain here in Altamonte Springs so far. Very heavy rains at the present time. Nothing at my house though.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC071-122000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0008.150512T1933Z-150512T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LOCHMOOR WATERWAY ESTATES TO HARLEM HEIGHTS...AND
MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...CYPRESS LAKE...ST. JAMES CITY...PINE
MANOR...MATLACHA ISLES-MATLACHA SHORES...MATLACHA...EAST DUNBAR...
PINELAND...PINE ISLAND CENTER...IONA...PALMONA PARK...LOCHMOOR
WATERWAY ESTATES...VILLAS...MCGREGOR...HARLEM HEIGHTS...SAN CARLOS
PARK...BURNT STORE MARINA...FORT MYERS VILLAS AND PAGE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2646 8187 2643 8191 2641 8189 2649 8199
2642 8207 2646 8215 2648 8215 2644 8208
2651 8205 2654 8205 2649 8206 2650 8213
2670 8216 2664 8209 2677 8206 2677 8202
2670 8184 2641 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 102DEG 11KT 2664 8192 2650 8191

$$

RAG


Just like yesterday, more severe thunderstorm warnings in SW Florida, there was large hail and wind damage down there yesterday, and also quarter size hail in downtown Tampa.
Wet Season pattern beginning to crank here in Orlando as storms are refiring.

Quoting 98. TimSoCal:



Official ENSO records - 97-98 was the strongest, with 82-83 in second place. There is indirect evidence for stronger El Nino episodes prior to official recordkeeping, but nothing official.


Hehe, at least not yet anyways... :)
Quoting 103. Jedkins01:



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC071-122000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0008.150512T1933Z-150512T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LOCHMOOR WATERWAY ESTATES TO HARLEM HEIGHTS...AND
MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...CYPRESS LAKE...ST. JAMES CITY...PINE
MANOR...MATLACHA ISLES-MATLACHA SHORES...MATLACHA...EAST DUNBAR...
PINELAND...PINE ISLAND CENTER...IONA...PALMONA PARK...LOCHMOOR
WATERWAY ESTATES...VILLAS...MCGREGOR...HARLEM HEIGHTS...SAN CARLOS
PARK...BURNT STORE MARINA...FORT MYERS VILLAS AND PAGE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2646 8187 2643 8191 2641 8189 2649 8199
2642 8207 2646 8215 2648 8215 2644 8208
2651 8205 2654 8205 2649 8206 2650 8213
2670 8216 2664 8209 2677 8206 2677 8202
2670 8184 2641 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 102DEG 11KT 2664 8192 2650 8191

$$

RAG


Just like yesterday, more severe thunderstorm warnings in SW Florida, there was large hail and wind damage down there yesterday, and also quarter size hail in downtown Tampa.


Nice looking line forming south of Orlando. Looking active this evening from I-4 west.

Carried over from the previous blog:

Quoting 232. Patrap:

The insanity continues out west.

Forbidden Data

Wyoming just criminalized citizen science.

By Justin Pidot


(snip)

Sometimes, Pat, your posts serve to jack my blood pressure. This is utterly appalling. Teddy Roosevelt and Richard Nixon are likely rolling in their graves. From the article:

"Anyone with a passing familiarity with our Constitution will recognize that the Wyoming law is unconstitutional. It runs afoul of the supremacy clause because it interferes with the purposes of federal environmental statutes by making it impossible for citizens to collect the information necessary to bring an enforcement lawsuit. The Wyoming law also violates the First Amendment’s guarantee of free speech because it singles out speech about natural resources for burdensome regulation and makes it a crime to engage in a variety of expressive and artistic activities. And finally, it specifically criminalizes public engagement with federal and state agencies and therefore violates another right guaranteed by the First Amendment: the right to petition the government."

Question for anybody - what do they mean by 'supremacy clause'?

Quoting 184. barbamz:
(snip)


Massive southern invasions by northern birds linked to climate shifts
Science Daily, Date: May 11, 2015, Source: University of Utah
Summary: Scientists have pinpointed the climate pattern that likely sets the stage for boreal bird irruptions in which vast numbers of northern birds migrate far south of their usual winter range. The discovery could make it possible to predict the events more than a year in advance.

(snip)

Barb - really interesting article (as were the others as well). But I found this one particularly intriguing. Twenty-five years of a large 'citizen science initiative' involving data collection from amateur birders...couldn't help but contrast that with the recent legislation in Wyoming to quell such efforts. What a difference!
110. JRRP


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area




Models show basically the same pattern being in place, so no reason for any major deviation, although usually moisture doesn't remain consistently deep this early, typically May is spurts of sea breeze thunderstorms for a few days, but not usually consistently decent coverage.

Although I think any highs below 88-90 are pretty much done except for days that feature extra clouds and rain.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

FLC015-071-122045-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150512T2045Z/
LEE FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

AT 406 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR MATLACHA ISLES-MATLACHA SHORES TO NEAR ST. JAMES CITY...
MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...PUNTA GORDA...PALMONA PARK...LOCHMOOR
WATERWAY ESTATES...ST. JAMES CITY...MATLACHA ISLES-MATLACHA SHORES...
MATLACHA...PINELAND...PINE ISLAND CENTER...IONA...MCGREGOR...HARLEM
HEIGHTS...BURNT STORE MARINA...ROTONDA...PLACIDA...SAINT JAMES
CITY...NORTH FORT MYERS...TROPICAL GULF ACRES AND PIRATE HARBOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&
Quoting 112. Jedkins01:





Models show basically the same pattern being in place, so no reason for any major deviation, although usually moisture doesn't remain consistently deep this early, typically May is spurts of sea breeze thunderstorms for a few days, but not usually consistently decent coverage.

Although I think any highs below 88-90 are pretty much done except for days that feature extra clouds and rain.


I hope so. As long as the convective pattern favors the west coast, I'm bound to get some rain eventually.
Quoting 107. StormTrackerScott:



Nice looking line forming south of Orlando. Looking active this evening from I-4 west.




Yeah I'm hoping for some good action here in Pinellas since we haven't had any rain for May yet so far, although that's not unusual. Usually the first two weeks of May are very dry, and the second half is usually low coverage of sea breeze thunderstorms.
Guam sounds like the place to be if you want to experience severe tropical cyclone conditions. It's amazing such a tiny piece of land has been impacted so strongly multiple times. The island also averages over 100 inches of precip a year. The tropics in the west Pacific are just more active than the Atlantic. Our islands in the Atlantic don't average nearly as much rain or as severe of impacts of tropical cyclones as often.
I saw hail for the first time of my life today with the severe thunderstorm in Lee County. Had a wind gust to 47 MPH at my PWS, and took a video of a lightning strike 30 feet from my house. My brother went out in the storm to pick up the hail stones and threw it against our window. They were between Dimes and Quarters. Pretty interesting afternoon!
Looking mighty!
Quoting 118. typhoonty:

I saw hail for the first time of my life today with the severe thunderstorm in Lee County. Had a wind gust to 47 MPH at my PWS, and took a video of a lightning strike 30 feet from my house. My brother went out in the storm to pick up the hail stones and threw it against our window. They were between Dimes and Quarters. Pretty interesting afternoon!


While nearby C2G strikes can be exhilarating I'd caution you to be in a safe zone (ie: interior). I had a scare a few years back with a random bolt. My hair stood up on end, knees got wobbly, and I was short of breath. I don't know how far away the bolt was as it was a blur but it was an instantaneous flash/boom. Those days are over as I'd like to live a little longer :)
West Pack: Noul is dead and will be carried out to sea. TS Dolphin is intensifying and will become a threat to Guam later this week. Gradual intensification for the next 3 days is expected and then rapid intensification after.

Read more
Quoting 120. LargoFl:




Nice lines of storms have filled in over the bay. Pinellas should get some pretty good storms
Quoting 119. Gearsts:

Looking mighty!

Typhoon Dolphin will be extremely dangerous according to the GFS... There are islands that will be in big trouble if they take a direct hit...It will be interesting to see how they affect weather here in the U.S.

126. yoboi
Quoting 109. LAbonbon:

Carried over from the previous blog:


Sometimes, Pat, your posts serve to jack my blood pressure. This is utterly appalling. Teddy Roosevelt and Richard Nixon are likely rolling in their graves. From the article:

"Anyone with a passing familiarity with our Constitution will recognize that the Wyoming law is unconstitutional. It runs afoul of the supremacy clause because it interferes with the purposes of federal environmental statutes by making it impossible for citizens to collect the information necessary to bring an enforcement lawsuit. The Wyoming law also violates the First Amendment’s guarantee of free speech because it singles out speech about natural resources for burdensome regulation and makes it a crime to engage in a variety of expressive and artistic activities. And finally, it specifically criminalizes public engagement with federal and state agencies and therefore violates another right guaranteed by the First Amendment: the right to petition the government."

Question for anybody - what do they mean by 'supremacy clause'?


Barb - really interesting article (as were the others as well). But I found this one particularly intriguing. Twenty-five years of a large 'citizen science initiative' involving data collection from amateur birders...couldn't help but contrast that with the recent legislation in Wyoming to quell such efforts. What a difference!


simple definition supreme Law of the land.....But the most important thing there was a case about 5 yrs ago that went to the appeals court very shady ruling from what I recall....When I get time I will research and wundermail you the ruling.....
West Pack: Noul is dead and will be carried out to sea. TS Dolphin is intensifying and will become a threat to Guam later this week. Gradual intensification for the next 3 days is expected and then rapid intensification after.

Read more
Quoting 124. Bucsboltsfan:



Nice lines of storms have filled in over the bay. Pinellas should get some pretty good storms
yes if it holds together..we sure need the rain
Quoting 121. StAugustineFL:



While nearby C2G strikes can be exhilarating I'd caution you to be in a safe zone (ie: interior). I had a scare a few years back with a random bolt. My hair stood up on end, knees got wobbly, and I was short of breath. I don't know how far away the bolt was as it was a blur but it was an instantaneous flash/boom. Those days are over as I'd like to live a little longer :)


Pretty much describes my situation. I nearly fell over from the impact of the sound wave. I was in a screened porch though, underneath a roof. Not perfect, but not necessarily foolish either.
Tropical Storm Dolphin WunderMap®
Share
Short Link Full Link
Storm Details YouTube Videos (1) WunderPhotos (0)
Last Updated 5/12/2015, 1:00:00 PM (CDT)
Location 9.8N 203.1E Movement W at 6 mph
Wind 60 MPH
Other Storm Information

Learn more about Tropical Storm Dolphin and the 2015 Western Pacific hurricane season here.

Coordinates | Discussions | Public Advisory
000
wdpn32 pgtw 122100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 07w (dolphin) warning
nr 25//
rmks//

1. For meteorologists.

2. 6 hour summary and analysis.

Tropical Storm (TS) 07w (dolphin), located approximately 190 nm
north-northwest of Pohnpei, has tracked westward at 06 knots over
the past six hours. Animated eir continues to show a deep CDO
feature obscuring the LLCC. Formative convective banding is also
clearly visible. A 121801z ssmis reinforces the presence of these
banding features. The initial position is based on the
aforementioned microwave imagery while the intensity of 50 knots is
held due to observations from a 121611z rscat pass with good
confidence. Upper level analysis indicates that the system is in an
area of low vws and good poleward outflow. Additionally, an
equatorial outflow channel has started to provide a ventilation
mechanism.

The cyclone is currently tracking along the southern
periphery of an extension of a deep-layered str to the northwest.

3. Forecast reasoning.

A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from
the previous prognostic reasoning message.

B. Ts 07w will continue to track to the west-northwest through
tau 72 as the str to the north flattens and slowly tracks to the
east. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued
intensification at fairly Standard rates.

C. In the extended forecast period, ts Dolphin will track more to
the northwest as the system tracks through a break in the str as the
main body of the ridge builds as it tracks to the east. The
continued favorable environment will include a vigorous dual outflow
channel, favoring a more rapid intensification towards the later
Taus. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement, lending high
confidence in the jtwc track forecast.

//
Nnnn

M 6.6 just struck off Northern Japan 50 km off the coast.


Another Super Typhoon?
Hopefully mariners steer clear and islands miss the worst of it, but this is getting pretty neat to see all these amazing satellite and ISS images. They just seem to keep coming and coming, I wonder if we will see more records fall this year?
Euro brings it near the islands at 958 MB,s, but drops it down to 930 MB,s to there west.




Quoting 133. Patrap:

M 6.6 just struck off Northern Japan 50 km off the coast.


Tsunami?
Quoting 133. Patrap:

M 6.6 just struck off Northern Japan 50 km off the coast.

Is there a possibility for a tsunami out of this one? Edit: Dak beat me to it :P
Quoting 137. Huracan94:


Is there a possibility for a tsunami out of this one?


For the US and Canada including Alaska and Hawaii there is no Tsunami warning.

60% Rain chance on Friday...........
I hope you get some on Friday Ped.
Quoting 140. Dakster:

I hope you get some on Friday Ped.


WU is forecasting a storm total of 0.7" for Thu/Fri where I am, but this seems really unlikely. Fingers crossed.
Our blogger companion "PlazaRed" in southwestern Spain is going to be fried tomorrow, I fear. Record temps for May with more than 40C (104F) in the making ... My temps mid Germany had been 30C (86F) today --- not that *bad* either for this time of the year; but the cold front with a lot of partly severe storms expelled the heat from Central Germany in the afternoon.

Spain swelters in July-like heat
Seville, Madrid and other capitals could break May temperature records on Wednesday
Victoria Torres Benayas Madrid 12 MAY 2015 - 13:16 CEST

Pic from that article (Highs expected on Wednesday, May 13. / AEMET):
143. 882MB
Who here remembers Hurricane Wilma after being stalled, when she started pulling WNW, and started RI. Well this satellite loop of Dolphin reminds me a lot of Wilma. I wont be surprised if this passes by Guam stronger then a category 1 or 2. Hopefully folks there have been watching and preparing for this storm.



From the previous blog...

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:

Water Pricing in Two Thirsty Cities: In One, Guzzlers Pay More, and Use Less

extract from article:

Ron and Donna Fena, who have a swimming pool as well as a koi pond in their backyard, say they used only 14,000 gallons last month and are following the guidelines on weekly watering, but they say that's beside the point.

"People are focusing too much on lawns," Ms. Fena said. "There is still a lot of water around."

She complained that half of California's surface water goes to keeping rivers flowing and other environmental needs, like sustaining fisheries and also preventing endangered species like the delta smelt from becoming extinct.

"I like fish, but I'm not giving up my lawn for some smelt," Ms. Fena said, only half-joking. "Let those fish die up north. There's a cycle of life."
Other portions of the article make an excellent case for the effectiveness tiered pricing of water to encourage conservation.

I suspect the writer did a targeted search to eventually find the example of deep ignorance + sociopathic tendency exhibited in that extract. I think the example may provoke outrage that helps the writer's case but worry it may also promote the nonproductive thought that stupid selfish people will reap their just reward.

California cities fret over tiered water rates after court decision | The Sacramento Bee
can help familiarize someone with California's legalities regarding tiered water pricing.
Quoting 141. TimSoCal:



WU is forecasting a storm total of 0.7" for Thu/Fri where I am, but this seems really unlikely. Fingers crossed.


I only see .14 for you and .08 for me, where did you get your number, used your link but I don't see .7
Looks like Dolphin(lol) is on the verge of RI if not already in the process
Classic summertime weather pattern for West Central Florida driven by the sea breeze. A couple of weeks early this year.
Quoting 145. PedleyCA:



I only see .14 for you and .08 for me, where did you get your number, used your link but I don't see .7

WU is forecasting .83" for me in Woodland Hills but we'll see how well that verifies in four days. Link
blog issues?
Meanwhile wild weather in southeastern Europe. I see pics and videos of snow in mountainous regions, elsewhere hail, downpours, lightning and so on. Here just one news from Crete's amazing Samaria Gorge which I've walked some decades (hmm, lol) ago as well:

Hikers Trapped in Samaria Gorge, Crete, Due to Extreme Weather
Greekreporter, Ioanna Zikakou - May 12, 2015

Good night folks from Europe!
RI FLAG FLAG
07W/T/D/C1
TXPQ21 KNES 122105
TCSWNP

A. 07W (DOLPHIN)

B. 12/2032Z

C. 9.8N

D. 156.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .9 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=3.5. MET=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1556Z 9.7N 156.9E SSMI
12/1801Z 9.8N 156.7E SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ
The Atlas of Canet, 1949. You can find some interesting details on the following
Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 145. PedleyCA:



I only see .14 for you and .08 for me, where did you get your number, used your link but I don't see .7


It showed .42 on Thu and .28 on Fri - since then it dropped to .41 and .27, strange.
Looks like Dolphin's eye is almost complete, if not already complete:



Wouldn't be surprised if it Rapidly intensified into a category 4-5 Typhoon with very low shear and SSTs widely 28-29C in its path.
We should always realize that behind every fatality, weather related......is a grieving Families story.

Arkansas Couple Died Trying to Shield Daughter from Twister

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Melissa and Michael Mooneyhan met as high school students and quickly fell in love. The two were married in 2004, even before they graduated.

More than a decade later, the pair died shielding their young daughter from a tornado as the twister chewed up the family's mobile home in Nashville, Arkansas, authorities said.

The home looked "like it had exploded," said Howard County Coroner John Gray, who called the little girl's survival "a miracle." Rescuers who found the family believe the couple perished while desperately trying to protect their child.

When search crews lifted a piece of trailer debris, they found the girl squatting between her parents' bodies, awake and teary.

"I don't think she had nearly a scratch on her," said Howard County Emergency Management Coordinator Sonny Raulerson. "There wasn't enough room for her to even stand up. But she didn't try to crawl out. I don't think she wanted to leave her mama."

The Mooneyhans were among five people killed Sunday after a line of powerful tornadoes battered several small communities in Texas and Arkansas. Three people died in Texas. Scores of others were hurt, some critically.

The child, about 18 months old, was taken to the hospital and later released to relatives.



see the blogs have been down for 5 hours and some parts are just coming back on line it appears ..

Wonder how long it will take .. Site seems unstable ..
159. Patrap
11:30 PM GMT on May 12, 2015

We should always realize that behind every fatality, weather related......is a grieving Families story.
Arkansas Couple Died Trying to Shield Daughter from Twister

when its a child who will never know their parent(s) because of a disaster its really hard to understand. i can't seem to find the right words.


For anyone who does not know and who cares, Dr. Masters has a new blog entry. Blog Index is broken so it did not notify anybody. They're fixing it. New Entry Link Below

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=2985

Never Mind, it's fixed lol. A little late i guess
er,Houston,


we've had a problem.


Storm totals in inches,




Record Report

Statement as of 2:16 am CDT on May 13, 2015

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Houston/hobby Airport...

A record rainfall of 3.44 inches was set at Houston/hobby Airport
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 2.63 set in 2012.
Areal Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:21 AM CDT on May 13, 2015

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
western Chambers County in southeastern Texas...

* until 1215 PM CDT

* at 916 am CDT... Road flooding leading to Road closures was still
occurring in areas along Interstate 45 between hobby Airport and
La Marque from an estimated 6 to 10 inches of rainfall that fell
across the warned area overnight. Water is receding in these
areas... however several roads are still impassible and motorists
are urged to avoid flooded areas until waters recede completely.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena... Pearland... League City... Baytown... Texas City...
Friendswood... La Porte... Deer Park... Alvin... Dickinson... South
Houston... La Marque... Santa Fe... Seabrook... Webster... Hitchcock...
Manvel... Kemah... Clear Lake and south belt / Ellington.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.
Test..
Quoting 167. auburn:

Test..


Re - Test !!