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A Quiet Tornado Season Revs Up; Tropics Calm Down

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:29 PM GMT on May 11, 2015

After making landfall at 6:15 am EDT Sunday on the coast of South Carolina just south of the North Carolina border as the strongest tropical storm ever recorded to hit the U.S. so early in the year, Tropical Storm Ana dissipated on Sunday evening over North Carolina. The storm brought a number of wind gusts of 50 - 60 mph to the coast, but no significant flooding or damage was reported. Before Ana, only six tropical cyclones tracked over the Gulf Coast or East Coast before June 1. Ana was the earliest. (Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.)


Figure 1. Infrared VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Noul as seen by Suomi satellite at 05:25 UTC May 10, 2015. At the time, Noul was nearing landfall on the northeastern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Lan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA RAMMB/CIRA.

Typhoon Noul (called Dodong in the Philippines) weakened to a Category 1 storm with top winds of 90 mph Monday morning after belting the extreme northeastern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds on Sunday morning. Two deaths are being blamed on the storm, but damage was limited by the fact that the northeastern Luzon is relatively sparsely populated. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that Noul was barely recognizable as a typhoon, looking like a large misshapen blob of heavy thunderstorms. Noul is caught in a trough of low pressure that will swing the storm to the north and northeast, out to sea, skirting the Ryukyu Islands and the coast of Japan. The Yaeyama island chain of far southern Japan received some powerful winds from Noul on Monday morning; the Ishigaki-jima observation site--with records since 1897--set an all-time sustained wind record for the month of May, with 28.8 m/s (64.4 mph). Gusts up to 44.1 m/s (98.6 mph) also occurred. Farther east, Shimoji clocked a sustained wind of 36.4 m/s (81.4 mph) and a gust to 47.8 m/s (106.9 mph) around 1 a.m. JST (noon U.S. EDT). Thanks go to TWC's Nick Wiltgen for these wind stats.

Next up is Tropical Storm Dolphin, which formed over Micronesia on May 9, breaking the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year, according to statistics from the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. Dolphin is not yet well-organized, as seen on satellite loops, due to high wind shear. However, wind shear will relax to the low range by Wednesday, which should allow the storm to intensify into a typhoon when it makes its closest approach to Guam on Thursday and Friday. Guam will likely be the last land area Dolphin will affect, as a strong trough of low pressure should recurve the storm to the north out to sea late this week.

Tornadoes strike eastern South Dakota, east Texas
What began as one of the least active tornado seasons on record kicked into high gear over the weekend. Sunday produced a total of 26 tornado reports, following 53 reports on Saturday, according to preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The worst strikes were early and late on Sunday. From around 10:30 to 11:00 am CDT, a tornado with a preliminary EF2 rating carved a quarter-mile-wide, 17-mile-long path across eastern South Dakota, causing 9 injuries and damaging more than 20 buildings in the town of Delmont. Another tornado struck Van, TX (about 100 miles east of Dallas) at around 8:45 pm CDT. The town's emergency management coordinator, Chuck Allen, estimated early on Monday morning that about 30 percent of the town of Van had been damaged, with some homes destroyed. At least 26 people were injured, with search and recovery operations continuing today.


Figure 2. Rev. David Otten, from Immanuel Lutheran Church in Dimock, SD, walks down Main Street in Delmont, SD, in front of Zion Lutheran Church after a tornado heavily damaged the structure on Sunday, May 10. Otten was filling in for Rev. Brian Bucklew but wasn't in the church when the tornado hit. Image credit: Joe Ahlquist/The Argus Leader, via AP.

The severe weather outbreak that began on Wednesday in Texas and Oklahoma will be winding down on Monday, as the upper-level low and associated cold front move into the Great Lakes and lower Mississippi Valley. Instability and wind shear have both decreased, but tornadic supercells are still possible, particularly in eastern Indiana, Ohio, and southeast Michigan. Heavy rain, wind, and hail can be expected along the length of the front, especially in Mississippi, Louisiana, and south Texas.


Figure 3. Preliminary severe weather reports for Saturday, May 9 (top) and Sunday, May 10 (bottom) show the bifurcated nature of the weekend outbreak, with one focal point near the surface low, which shifted from Colorado and Kansas to South Dakota and Iowa. Another focal point, along the trailing cold front, remained in Texas and Oklahoma. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


After today's storms, the nation will see a brief respite, but forecast models strongly suggest that another multiday outbreak will unfold over the coming weekend, likely starting in Colorado and Kansas on Friday and expanding further into the Great Plains on Saturday. Thus far we've seen about 150 preliminary tornado reports for May, compared to an average for the entire month of 173 during the last three years (2012 - 2014). After Sunday's tornadoes, our preliminary total for the year is now around 400, just below the "inflation-adjusted" average for this point in the year. The average year-to-date total in that database climbs to around 600 by May 31. It would take a very busy last half of May to reach that point, but given the model indications for this coming weekend, and the longer-range suggestions of continued upper-level troughiness in the West, I wouldn't rule it out.

The good news is that tornado deaths and injuries have been remarkably low to date. Only three tornado-related fatalities appear in the SPC database through May 7. The years 2012 through 2014 averaged 34 deaths by the end of May, and the year before that--2011--saw more than 500 deaths by that point. The relatively light human toll is partially due to luck (this year's tornadoes have been missing large population centers) and partially due to the very small number of stronger tornadoes. Only one EF4 tornado and three EF3 tornadoes had been confirmed in unofficial totals through May 6. Over the last several decades, the total number of EF3/EF4/EF5 tornadoes has ranged between about 20 and 60, with 2011 a notable exception (more than 80 were observed that year). Most of these are rated EF3; only a handful of EF4 tornadoes occur in a typical year, and only about a dozen EF5s can be expected per decade.


Figure 4. This tornado northeast of Eads, CO, on Saturday, May 9 is approaching the end of its life cycle. Image credit: Bob Henson.

Snow and tornadoes in the same state--on the same day?
Old-timers from Colorado to South Dakota were impressed but not shocked by the wind-driven, late-season snowfall that wrapped around the back side of this weekend's strong low-pressure system over the Plains. Rapid City has recorded measurable snow as late as June 13, 1969, and Denver averages 1.7" in May (albeit with large year-to-year variability). Ground temperatures are warming up quickly, so to get much accumulation, the snow has to be falling heavily. Likewise, in order to cool down an already-chilly airmass enough to make it snow this late in the spring, heavy precipitation is usually needed. The Rapid City NWS office reported 13.6" on Saturday and Sunday, its second heaviest May snowstorm and the heaviest ever recorded so late in the season. Denver's totals of 3.5" on Saturday and 0.5" on Sunday were both enough to set daily records, but the month's all-time record of 11.5" on May 5, 1917, remains untouched.

Just as impressive as the snow itself was the juxtaposition of winter weather and severe weather within the same state. Snow and tornadoes were being observed at the same time (in different locations) in Colorado on Saturday afternoon and South Dakota on Sunday morning. I experienced this contrast first-hand while driving back to the Boulder, CO, area on Saturday from my visit to the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, OK. Our route through far eastern Colorado took us just east of a long-lived, northward-moving supercell that produced several highly visible tornadoes north of the town of Eads. I once spent an entire summer storm-chasing in Colorado for NOAA as part of a validation program for the prototype NEXRAD radar, but this was the most spectacular sequence of tornadoes I've ever seen here. The last part of the drive was the most stressful, as howling winds and heavy snow struck the Denver area just before we arrived. This was the first time I've gone from a tornado warning to a winter storm warning in the space of six hours!

Bob Henson (severe); Jeff Masters (tropical)


Figure 5. Another tornado from the supercell that produced the twister in Figure 4 above, photographed from near Cheyenne Wells, CO, on Saturday, May 9. Image credit: wunderphotographer adkinsadam1.


Figure 6. A snow-covered scene from the Denver suburb of Arvada on Sunday, May 10. Image credit: wunderphotographer NapalmSnowcone.

Outflow
Outflow
This tornado warned storm had some intense winds and some decent sized hail. We didn't have much luck with storms in Texas on Friday as they became HP(high precipitation) which makes seeing the tornado almost impossible.
Happy Mothers Day!
Happy Mothers Day!
End of the North Texas drought
End of the North Texas drought
This storm system moved into Granbury, TX bringing much needed torrential rain with it. Canals that were empty for the past three years have filled up completely in just the past two weeks!

Tornado tropical cyclone

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Stormchaser Max Olson captured this rainbow in Eads, Colorado, Saturday


And I thought Texas weather was crazy.
Tornado damage in Van Texas. 2 Fatalities, over 46 treated for injuries.
Quoting 299 (from the previous blog). yoboi:
Thanks to the link that you provided that is full of maybe's if's could Possible etc....It is proven that with warming climate added CO2 the global food supply has increased....Your own research that you provided says yes we are at record crop levels...
Of course there are mentions of probabilities and likelihoods - because what I posted is research and evidence-based science - and not denialist blatherings. Science-based projections are based on likelihoods, probabilities and confidence levels. I thought you knew that!

If you first came to Wunderground to follow hurricanes, you must be aware that you are far more likely to face a dangerous situation if there is a 95% chance of a Cat 5 hurricane striking you in the next couple of days vs. a 20% chance. Yet, some weather geeks seem to have trouble applying this same logic to AGW/CC issues.

When someone begins to study science seriously, they quickly learns that proofs are for mathematicians and philosophers, and that science uses not "predictions," but rather "projections" which based on probabilities, likelihoods and confidence levels. For many of the projections of climate scientists, these confidence factors are extraordinarily high.

But your second point about it being "proven" that is false and misleading - it's a spurious correlation without evidence to back it up - and I noticed that you don't provide any references to data and analysis. There are many factors leading to the current record levels of global food production, and the initial levels of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 level increases may indeed be beneficial. But that is "very likely" to change as CO2 levels continue to increase.

Yes, we are at record levels of crop production, and there is a continuing increase. However, as my link clearly stated, the rate of increase in global crop yields is decreasing, and trending towards negative in the future. And also as my link demonstrated, the nutritional value of most crops will decrease with increasing CO2.

Do you really think that this is a good thing? More plant mass and less nutritional value?
Thanks, Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.

/Only three tornado-related fatalities appear in the SPC database through May 7./

Unfortunately, that number should be changing soon. Officials in Van, Texas, have just confirmed 2 fatalities from a tornado overnight, and an additional 2 deaths have been confirmed in Nashville, Arkansas.

Link
Thanks Bob and Doc.
Quoting 5. SafeInTexas:

Tornado damage in Van Texas. 2 Fatalities, over 46 treated for injuries.

Terrible, just terrible.
Thanks Jeff and Bob. I really truly enjoy this blog. Thank you all WU members.
Thank You Both. Interesting stats on the current tornado count and the statistical averages in spite of a slow start to the season. Interesting from a research standpoint as there are a few papers out there suggesting that in climate change environment, we could see less "tornado days" overall during the US spring tornado season in the future but that we could see more "clusters" of tornadoes when an outbreak does occur. Thus, getting close to statistical averages, by the end of the season, in spite of less frequent outbreaks. Interesting times over the next few decades to see how this theory pans out over time across three different Enso cycles during the tornado alley season (Neutral, La Nina, and El Nino years).
Quoting 6. Xulonn:

Of course there are mentions of probabilities and likelihoods - because what I posted is research and evidence-based science - and not denialist blatherings. Science-based projections are based on likelihoods, probabilities and confidence levels. I thought you knew that!

If you first came to Wunderground to follow hurricanes, you must be aware that you are far more likely to face a dangerous situation if there is a 95% chance of a Cat 5 hurricane striking you in the next couple of days vs. a 20% chance. Yet, some weather geeks seem to have trouble applying this same logic to AGW/CC issues.

When someone begins to study science seriously, they quickly learns that proofs are for mathematicians and philosophers, and that science uses not "predictions," but rather "projections" which based on probabilities, likelihoods and confidence levels. For many of the projections of climate scientists, these confidence factors are extraordinarily high.

But your second point about it being "proven" that is false and misleading - it's a spurious correlation without evidence to back it up - and I noticed that you don't provide any references to data and analysis. There are many factors leading to the current record levels of global food production, and the initial levels of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 level increases may indeed be beneficial. But that is "very likely" to change as CO2 levels continue to increase.

Yes, we are at record levels of crop production, and there is a continuing increase. However, as my link clearly stated, the rate of increase in global crop yields is decreasing, and trending towards negative in the future. And also as my link demonstrated, the nutritional value of most crops will decrease with increasing CO2.

Do you really think that this is a good thing? More plant mass and less nutritional value?


I agree that CO2 is not the only factor with the increase with global food production....Better farm management and disease resistant crops are the major factors.....But with an increase with CO2 has helped increased yields.....We are far far away from the increase of CO2 having a negative impact with crop yields.....



Guam better keep an eye on this one, considering the trend lately has been for WPac storms to intensify well beyond projections.
Thank you. That was the fastest demise of a cat-5 - I have ever seen. Went from a monster to a unrecognizable mess in just a matter of hours.
OMG yes please.


LOL

Quoting 16. hydrus:

Thank you. That was the fastest demise of a cat-5 - I have ever seen. Went from a monster to a unrecognizable mess in just a matter of hours.

Yeah I have no idea how the heck THAT happened. It couldn't have been only land interaction that grenaded Noul, that's for sure.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MSC001-037-111745-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0102.150511T1707Z-150511T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1206 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GARDEN
CITY...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KIRBY AROUND 1225 PM CDT.
BUDE AROUND 1235 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ROXIE
AND MEADVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9115 3135 9121 3137 9122 3136 9126
3142 9129 3161 9094 3161 9092 3135 9079
3135 9098 3134 9099 3135 9102 3134 9103
3133 9106 3134 9107 3133 9107 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 243DEG 27KT 3139 9108

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

17
SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WESTERN ANDN NORTHERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS AND STORMS
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES...EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND...A COUPLE TORNADOES...AND SEVERE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...CORFIDI
Thanks for the interesting post about very interesting weather, rich in contrast!

Unfortunately Noul failed to provide some much needed precipitation for Taiwan:


Water Vapor, Noul passing Taiwan

Taiwan aims to rein in water use amid unusual drought
Latimes, May 10, 2015
... Taiwan is grappling with issues familiar to those in California, which is in its fourth year of drought. ...
Quoting 12. yoboi:



I agree that CO2 is not the only factor with the increase with global food production....Better farm management and disease resistant crops are the major factors.....But with an increase with CO2 has helped increased yields.....We are far far away from the increase of CO2 having a negative impact with crop yields.....



On what evidence do you base what I have highlighted from your comment?

You should also pay close attention to the fact that this is not a controlled lab experiment that could be ended in an instant. The experiment that we are performing is uncontrolled, in the wild and without knowing the full consequences of the experiment. Live a long life, Yoboi. You deserve the privilege of knowing just how much your opinions really matter when stacked up against Science.
Quoting 25. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



On what evidence do you base what I have highlighted from your comment?

You should also pay close attention to the fact that this is not a controlled lab experiment that could be ended in an instant. The experiment that we are performing is uncontrolled, in the wild and without knowing the full consequences of the experiment. Live a long life, Yoboi. You deserve the privilege of knowing just how much your opinions really matter when stacked up against Science.


The increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration probably will have significant direct effects on vegetation whether predicted changes in climate occur or not. Averaging over many prior greenhouse and growth chamber studies, plant growth and yield have typically increased more than 30% with a doubling of CO2 concentration. Such a doubling also causes stomatal conductance to decrease about 37%, which typically increases leaf temperatures more than 1 °C, and which may decrease evapotranspiration, although increases in leaf area counteract the latter effect. Interactions between CO2 and climate variables also appear important. In one study the growth increase from near-doubled CO2 ranged from minus 60% at 12 °C to 0% at 19 °C to plus 130% at 34 °C, suggesting that if the climate warms, the average growth response to doubled CO2 could be consistently higher than the 30% mentioned above.

Link
If were to materialize this WWB is on the level of 1997 come later this month. Very Strong El-Nino coming folks!

Interesting as in late May 1997 we had the same event occur which propelled a rapid warming of the ENSO Pacific regions.
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

If were to materialize this WWB is on the level of 1997 come later this month. Very Strong El-Nino coming folks!


In my Spongebob voice, "I'm ready I'm ready I'm ready." Just bring it on already. Either go big or go home, El Nino.

Quoting 19. Huracan94:


Yeah I have no idea how the heck THAT happened. It couldn't have been only land interaction that grenaded Noul, that's for sure.

Shear had a role along with land interaction, but that was really quick.
Local news CNN is saying: Five dead, several missing after tornadoes blast central U.S.

Updated: May 11, 2015 1:32 PM EDT

The Van's Texas Tornado. Aerial images and associated story
Link
Quoting 26. yoboi:



The increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration probably will have significant direct effects on vegetation whether predicted changes in climate occur or not. Averaging over many prior greenhouse and growth chamber studies, plant growth and yield have typically increased more than 30% with a doubling of CO2 concentration. Such a doubling also causes stomatal conductance to decrease about 37%, which typically increases leaf temperatures more than 1 °C, and which may decrease evapotranspiration, although increases in leaf area counteract the latter effect. Interactions between CO2 and climate variables also appear important. In one study the growth increase from near-doubled CO2 ranged from minus 60% at 12 °C to 0% at 19 °C to plus 130% at 34 °C, suggesting that if the climate warms, the average growth response to doubled CO2 could be consistently higher than the 30% mentioned above.

Link


That is the abstract of a 1993 study. The study was performed in controlled environments, "greenhouses and growth chambers", and not in the wild. The article is over 22 years old. Why do you not pay the $40 to read the study and then tell us what conclusions were ascertained from the study? I do give you credit for linking to actual Science.

Why not look at a newer study that you can read in its entirety and without paying for it? B. A. Kimball worked on the study that you linked and on the following study as well, from 2011:

Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production

Are you a farmer, or just a cherry picker?
Thanks Dynamic Duo.... interesting stuff.
Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

In my Spongebob voice, "I'm ready I'm ready I'm ready." Just bring it on already. Either go big or go home, El Nino.




It's coming. I firmly believe after the May update that we are heading for a big event.
Quoting 32. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



That is the abstract of a 1993 study. The study was performed in controlled environments, "greenhouses and growth chambers", and not in the wild. The article is over 22 years old. Why do you not pay the $40 to read the study and then tell us what conclusions were ascertained from the study? I do give you credit for linking to actual Science.

Why not look at a newer study that you can read in its entirety and without paying for it? B. A. Kimball worked on the study that you linked and on the following study as well, from 2011:

Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production

Are you a farmer, or just a cherry picker?


True the science I linked to was 22 yrs old......But when did science have a shelf life??? Einstein did work in early 1900's....
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

If were to materialize this WWB is on the level of 1997 come later this month. Very Strong El-Nino coming folks!

Interesting as in late May 1997 we had the same event occur which propelled a rapid warming of the ENSO Pacific regions.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
BIGGEST METEOROLOGICAL EVENT GOING GLOBALLY ISSOI CRASH! WILL BE BIGGEST 5 DAY NEGATIVE SINCE 1997.
BIG IMPLICATIONS
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (SBCAPE
NEAR 3000 J/KG) AND HIGH PWATS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TO MAYBE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT...BUT SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE AS WELL IN THE -10 TO
-30 C HAIL GROWTH ZONE. FORTUNATELY...THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT DID NOT RECEIVE THE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL
FROM ANA...SO FLOODING...WHILE STILL POSSIBLE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD.
Not posted yet today: the short term forecast chart from WPC. The rain and t-storms starting to fire along the Gulf and lower midwest this afternoon.
Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

From last blog

In this environment no chance....

Quoting 147. wunderkidcayman:



Nope
Strong TS maybe weak Hurricane heading to Cayman Islands and Cuba

Anyway still too early to say where this thing may go
But it not early to say that it's quite possible that we may have a TS in the W Carib
We have to wait and watch the models during the next few days
El nino yes . but the effect will be a central pacific event. there has been some cooling in the Epac and southern pacific.
still have not bought into this big big El NINO event. after all we may still get an average hurricane season.
Quoting 36. yoboi:



True the science I linked to was 22 yrs old......But when did science have a shelf life??? Einstein did work in early 1900's....

Agronomy isn't a hard, fixed, science. There have been many developments in the past couple of decades, as well as a refining of regional impact projections from climate change.
As a farmer, I'd think this would be readily apparent to you, but then you're not a farmer at all, are you?
Some showers popping up in the region thanks to Ana.Very muggy outside and it's expected to continue in to tomorrow before a front comes through.
Quoting 36. yoboi:



True the science I linked to was 22 yrs old......But when did science have a shelf life??? Einstein did work in early 1900's....


Newton's Theory of Gravity held as the Science on gravity until Einstein gave us a better explanation of gravity. Newton's Laws of Gravity still stand today, but Newton's Theory of Gravity has been updated by Einstein. New evidence changes past understandings.
Quoting 37. Gearsts:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
BIGGEST METEOROLOGICAL EVENT GOING GLOBALLY ISSOI CRASH! WILL BE BIGGEST 5 DAY NEGATIVE SINCE 1997.
BIG IMPLICATIONS



Daily SOI values have been ludicrous the past few days.
Link
Quoting 24. barbamz:

Thanks for the interesting post about very interesting weather, rich in contrast!

Unfortunately Noul failed to provide some much needed precipitation for Taiwan:


Water Vapor, Noul passing Taiwan

Taiwan aims to rein in water use amid unusual drought
Latimes, May 10, 2015
... Taiwan is grappling with issues familiar to those in California, which is in its fourth year of drought. ...


According to the article, Taiwan's annual rainfall is 98 inches. Last year, they 'only' got 65 inches.

By contrast, Los Angeles gets an annual average of 15 inches! I think the Taiwanese need to get a bit better organised.
I wonder what is the latest date that we have had our first tropical wave ? So far Africa looks barren
Quoting 46. TimSoCal:



Daily SOI values have been ludicrous the past few days.
Link


Not being knowledgeable about the SOI, I googled for it and found this NOAA page explaining it.

Link

In 2010 on Memorial Day I drove through a snow fall in Colorado and into Utah... This kind of reminds me of that even though it is May 11... In fact that year the ski resorts in Park City will still open way past their normal close dates and seasonal roads that are supposed to open my Memorial Day didn't open up until the middle to the end of June....

Anyways - Hope the recovery efforts are well under way in the areas hit by severe weather in the past few days.
Quoting 33. PedleyCA:

Thanks Dynamic Duo.... interesting stuff.


Have the flood waters receded around your house Ped?

BTW - Back in the land of the midnight sun.... 36F this morning and I was one happy camper.
Quoting 17. Gearsts:

OMG yes please.


I don't think that the 1004 MB Low will come anywhere near US unless you saw something different. Otherwise, not that exciting to me personally.
Quoting 46. TimSoCal:



Daily SOI values have been ludicrous the past few days.
Link


Speaking of ludacris... How low can they go?
Quoting 37. Gearsts:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
BIGGEST METEOROLOGICAL EVENT GOING GLOBALLY ISSOI CRASH! WILL BE BIGGEST 5 DAY NEGATIVE SINCE 1997.
BIG IMPLICATIONS



Could be some -50 numbers the next 3 to 4 days. SOI crash looks ridiculous!
We are nearing the half of may, it s an ideal time to place your el nino predictions. 1.) weak 2.) moderate 3) strong 4) super 5) ultra...I guess I will go with the strong event.
Quoting 54. nygiants:


I don't think that the 1004 MB Low will come anywhere near US unless you saw something different. Otherwise, not that exciting to me personally.


I think he's more excited at the prospect of rain in the Caribbean. :p
Quoting 46. TimSoCal:



Daily SOI values have been ludicrous the past few days.
Link


Should get even more ridiculous the ridge goes from 1035 to 1041 the next few days. Could be on for the records
Quoting 18. pablosyn:



LOL




You'd think we were smack damn in the middle of August/September the way the WPAC is churning all these storms out!
655  
WFUS54 KLIX 111913  
TORLIX  
LAC063-105-111945-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0018.150511T1913Z-150511T1945Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
213 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT  
 
* AT 213 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  
NEAR ALBANY...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAMMOND...AND MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HAMMOND...INDEPENDENCE...NATALBANY AND TICKFAW.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3075 9046 3054 9043 3051 9065 3057 9066  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 226DEG 17KT 3056 9059  
 
 
 
CAB  
 
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Main Text Page

As I stated earlier I suspect the 2.3C reading of Nino 1&2 is a record for this early in May but I didn't realize this is the warmest Nino 1&2 has been since June 10th 1998 ending the Super El-Nino of 1997/1998!

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 58m 58 minutes ago
Weekly Nino 1+2 SST has reached 2.3C. Warmest Nino 1+2 SST anomaly since June 10, 1998.
Quoting 57. NoobDave:

We are nearing the half of may, it s an ideal time to place your el nino predictions. 1.) weak 2.) moderate 3) strong 4) super 5) ultra...I guess I will go with the strong event.
6 extreme
BREAKING: Obama admin gives conditional approval for Shell to drill in the Arctic this summer

From NYT:

White House Gives Conditional Approval for Shell to Drill in Arctic


Demonstrators in Seattle last month marched in protest of an oil rig leased by Shell that is bound for the Arctic Ocean. Credit Jason Redmond/Reuters

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration gave conditional approval on Monday to allow Shell Gulf of Mexico, Inc. to start drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic Ocean this summer.

The approval is a major victory for Shell and the rest of the petroleum industry, which has sought for years to drill in the remote waters of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, which are believed to hold vast reserves of oil and gas.

[...]

The Interior Department decision is a devastating blow to environmentalists, who have pressed the Obama administration to reject proposals for offshore Arctic drilling. Environmentalists say that a drilling accident in the icy and treacherous Arctic waters could have far more devastating consequences than the deadly Gulf of Mexico oil spill of 2010, when an oil rig explosion killed 11 men and sent millions of barrels of oil spewing into the water.

[...]

Environmental groups denounced the move and said that Shell had not demonstrated that it can drill safely in the Arctic Ocean.

“Once again, our government has rushed to approve risky and ill-conceived exploration in one of the most remote and important places on Earth,” said Susan Murray, a vice president of Oceana, an environmental group. “Shell’s need to validate its poorly planned investment in the U.S. Arctic Ocean is not a good reason for the government to allow the company to put our ocean resources at risk. Shell has not shown that it is prepared to operate responsibly in the Arctic Ocean, and neither the company nor our government has been willing to fully and fairly evaluate the risks of Shell’s proposal.”

[...]

Complete article >>

Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:

As I stated earlier I suspect the 2.3C reading of Nino 1&2 is a record for this early in May but I didn't realize this is the warmest Nino 1&2 has been since June 10th 1998 ending the Super El-Nino of 1997/1998!

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 58m 58 minutes ago
Weekly Nino 1+2 SST has reached 2.3C. Warmest Nino 1+2 SST anomaly since June 10, 1998.



So are you calling this a super duper El Niño?
Quoting 66. Dakster:



So are you calling this a super duper El Niño?


Seems were heading that way. Spring barrier has only 2 weeks left and models are now converging on 2.5C to 3C it seems.
Maybe it will help California next year and bust this drought. Of course then we will hear of widespread flooding.

Because mother nature has a sense of humor like that.
Quoting 68. Dakster:

Maybe it will help California next year and bust this drought. Of course then we will hear of widespread flooding.


Yeah 30 plus inches of rain in some areas on dry ground will most certainly wreck havoc across Coastal sections of California maybe even in some of the deserts.
One of the worst flooding in decades in Havana. For more details visit GeoMet on the following
Link


Quoting 68. Dakster:

Maybe it will help California next year and bust this drought. Of course then we will hear of widespread flooding.

Because mother nature has a sense of humor like that.


Probably, but it's still better than the drought. Obviously I hope we get an above average wet season, with precip spread out throughout the season, but that's not usually how it works in Cali.


Hopefully some beneficial rains for CA.
Quoting 65. Xandra:

">Complete article >>




not for much longer
Quoting 71. TimSoCal:



Probably, but it's still better than the drought. Obviously I hope we get an above average wet season, with precip spread out throughout the season, but that's not usually how it works in Cali.


Yup its either all or nothing. Like that here in FL too. We can go weeks without rain then boom I get 5" in 2 hours. That actually happened last year.
Quoting 71. TimSoCal:



Probably, but it's still better than the drought. Obviously I hope we get an above average wet season, with precip spread out throughout the season, but that's not usually how it works in Cali.


Florida is like that to - seems like you either get WAY too much or not nearly enough rain.

Guessing wrong by the water district managers can have disastrous consequences too.

I hope you get your slow and steady rain.
Quoting 67. StormTrackerScott:



Seems were heading that way. Spring barrier has only 2 weeks left and models are now converging on 2.5C to 3C it seems.

So you are predicting a super el nino now? You predicted peak somewhere near 1.8 C ONI, do you still think the same?
Quoting 72. tampabaymatt:



Hopefully some beneficial rains for CA.


Been seeing a storm in the forecast for Friday, but don't want to jinx it. On another note, what's going on in N. Texas and Oklahoma is almost biblical.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 76. NoobDave:


So you are predicting a super el nino now? You predicted peak somewhere near 1.8 C ONI, do you still think the same?


I had a prediction of 1.8C but I think this value will be surpassed based on these WWB ongoing and coming thru the end of May. New Euro that is out is shooting for the stars with this event.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:



It's coming. I firmly believe after the May update that we are heading for a big event.
You been saying that for over a year now!!
Quoting 75. Dakster:



Florida is like that to - seems like you either get WAY too much or not nearly enough rain.

Guessing wrong by the water district managers can have disastrous consequences too.

I hope you get your slow and steady rain.


All the way thru February we were extremely wet at my location but only just over 3" of rain since early March. Needless to say water levels are dropping very fast atleast by me.
Quoting 80. gulfbreeze:

You been saying that for over a year now!!


Well its real now WWB can be thanked this month for this linkage going on. Last year they stopped and Easterlies took over causing Nino areas to cool not the case this year.
Strong backdoor cold front here in the Northeast today.

Quoting 54. nygiants:


I don't think that the 1004 MB Low will come anywhere near US unless you saw something different. Otherwise, not that exciting to me personally.
I live in PR so i only want the rain.
GFS will probably drop all this.
Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



All the way thru February we were extremely wet at my location but only just over 3" of rain since early March. Needless to say water levels are dropping very fast atleast by me.


When I was back in Miami I could tell it was dry, but before I left we got some really strong/good rains. The grass went back to green and the pool overflowed.
WestPack: Noul is moving towards Kadena tonight as a category 1 typhoon and will become a low in 36 hours. Dolphin is slowly intensify and that pattern will continue for the next 24-36hrs until it enters a more favorable environment. And we are also going to start watching another area in the WPAC that may follow after Dolphin.

Read more...
Quoting 52. Dakster:



Have the flood waters receded around your house Ped?

BTW - Back in the land of the midnight sun.... 36F this morning and I was one happy camper.


Yup ALL Good here except for this website being down again.... more rain for Thur-Fri (Maybe)
Anyone else get this message from wu while trying to get on the site earlier? First time I've seen it.

"Site is currently overloaded. Please try again in a few minutes..."
Quoting 85. Dakster:



When I was back in Miami I could tell it was dry, but before I left we got some really strong/good rains. The grass went back to green and the pool overflowed.


Just like the "Good Old Days"....
Quoting 80. gulfbreeze:

You been saying that for over a year now!!
Well. For what its worth, I was wondering where the damn thing went anyway....Its been 80 years or somethin since we had one...yes i wuz bein sarcastic......sue me...:)
Quoting 83. MAweatherboy1:

Strong backdoor cold front here in the Northeast today.



The past few days near Albany NY has been unbelievable. This is weather I'd expect in mid-August. And if the forecast is to be believed, the cold front will produce little or no rain here.

I find myself wondering if Ana is having any impact. I've seen storms "push" fronts back, but maybe this one was too weak. The remnants seem to be near Delmarva now and headed NNE.
Quoting 89. PedleyCA:



Just like the "Good Old Days"....


Yep...

What are your temps today?

And I thought I was the only one not being able to access the site.
Ahh, WU is back ..., good.
Guess you folks are longing for an update on European weather, hmm? Well, right in time, two interesting days are ahead. Current airmass picture shows the advection of very warm and moist air (blueish-greenish) from the southwest and cold low "Benedikt" (purple) over the British Isles at the doorsteps of continental Europe:



The invasion of the cold frontal boundary with a preceding line of convergence should trigger some severe weather tomorrow afternoon in central Germany (including my place near Frankfurt maybe); here the surface map for tomorrow:



But weather on Wednesday could be even more severe in the region of the Alps where the development of supercells is likely. Here the latest map from European Storm Forecast Experiment (Estofex):


Excerpt: SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION: After the southward progression of a cold front on Tuesday, model consensus is that it will stall across central France and the north Alpine flanks. These will likely be locations of severe weather on Wednesday. The airmass to the south of the front is expected to heat strongly, particularly across France, where CAPE of ~2000 J/kg should develop. About 500-1000 J/kg are likely both on the northern and southern Alpine slopes across Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Italy and Slovenia. The configuration appears prone to severe weather especially because of the strong vertical wind shear, caused by a rather strong 25 m/s mid-level flow parallel to the front. ...
Source and more.

I'll keep you updated if something serious happens.

And here an impressive dustdevil in Southern Turkey (region of Antalya) today:



Good night everyone!
94. LBAR
Quoting 37. Gearsts:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
BIGGEST METEOROLOGICAL EVENT GOING GLOBALLY ISSOI CRASH! WILL BE BIGGEST 5 DAY NEGATIVE SINCE 1997.
BIG IMPLICATIONS



What does ISSOI mean?
Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link

It's crazy dry!!! Everything is brown... the nature is taking a serious beating from the drought. Lol and I was complaining in 2013 and 2014. 2015 is FAR worse!

Jan : 49mm (80% of average)
Feb : 31mm (66% of average)
March : 17mm (30% of average)
April : 25mm (40% of average)
May so far : 0.2mm (0% of average!!!!!)

Total for 2015 (4,5 months) so far : 122.2mm
I won't be surprised if we get less than 600mm of rain for 2015... probably one of the driest years on record.

Recent years with rainfall totals below 700mm were 2009 and 2000. I don't remember for 1997... but it was a very dry year too.
If it rains anymore here, I'm going to need a boat. It feels disgusting outside, with a dewpoint of 71F and a humidity of 88%. It looks like tomorrow might be our first 90F day of the year.
Quoting 94. LBAR:



What does ISSOI mean?
is soi
Quoting 96. CaribBoy:

It's crazy dry!!! Everything is brown... the nature is taking a serious beating from the drought. Lol and I was complaining in 2013 and 2014. 2015 is FAR worse!

Jan : 49mm (80% of average)
Feb : 31mm (66% of average)
March : 17mm (30% of average)
April : 25mm (40% of average)
May so far : 0.2mm (0% of average!!!!!)

Total for 2015 (4,5 months) so far : 122.2mm



dont you this love all that dry dry weather
Quoting 99. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it rains anymore here, I'm going to need a boat. It feels disgusting outside, with a dewpoint of 71F and a humidity of 88%. It looks like tomorrow might be our first 90F day of the year.



at lest you dont need a swimming pool if you wanted too take a dip you can this go right in your back yard
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:




dont you this love all that dry dry weather


Dense SAL, fresh trades, frequent high clouds, little to no rain... I don't like it at all. And it's not good for a beautiful post card.
Quoting 99. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it rains anymore here, I'm going to need a boat. It feels disgusting outside, with a dewpoint of 71F and a humidity of 88%. It looks like tomorrow might be our first 90F day of the year.


Thanks for the heads up, I'll make sure to bring one when I come back to ILM tomorrow.
Quoting 102. Tazmanian:




at lest you dont need a swimming pool if you wanted too take a dip you can this go right in your back yard


yes, but needing a scuba tank to go outside is starting to get old. Either that or he will need to grow a set of gills.
Quoting 99. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it rains anymore here, I'm going to need a boat. It feels disgusting outside, with a dewpoint of 71F and a humidity of 88%. It looks like tomorrow might be our first 90F day of the year.


88 here with a 72 dewpoint, the high was 92, it's hot but in broad context not too bad overall, I'm used to the heat and moisture, better than living in a place that gets long cold winters, and still hot summers like up north, lol.


What happened to the "Modoki"? I guess one can always look for their analog years as conditions change every week, but it seems like a waste of time to me. Well if the idea is to throw as much stuff against the wall something will eventually stick and then one can claim to be right. ENSO modeling appears to be getting better for now. I still like to look at current conditions and the short-medium term projections. As a bonus it doesn't get you too attached to the result of some long range model or guess based on other years.

Current conditions are pretty exciting even though the current 3.4 is at a +1 degree anomaly so I wouldn't expect a big jump once the March-April-May ONI value is released. Being a witness to all this is very fun.
This is a tough question--can you find the sea breeze across central North Carolina today?

Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



All the way thru February we were extremely wet at my location but only just over 3" of rain since early March. Needless to say water levels are dropping very fast atleast by me.


It didn't rain a drop when I was in South Florida in February but I'm told that's normal that time of year.
Quoting 92. Dakster:



Yep...

What are your temps today?

And I thought I was the only one not being able to access the site.


82.7F right now....
Quoting 106. Jedkins01:



88 here with a 72 dewpoint, the high was 92, not too bad overall, I'm used to the heat and moisture, better than living in a place that gets long cold winters, and still hot summers like up north, lol.

Winter is my favorite season. I don't think I could deal with living in Florida, which is a problem given that I want to work at the NHC eventually. I might just settle on a local WFO here in North Carolina and call it a day, haha.
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Winter is my favorite season. I don't think I could deal with living in Florida, which is a problem given that I want to work at the NHC eventually. I might just settle on a local WFO here in North Carolina and call it a day, haha.


See I don't think the heat is that bad here. I mean, yes it's consistently hot for several months, but to me it's easier to adjust to warm weather because once I get hot and cool down, it's awakening and I feel good once I cool down. However for me, cold weather causes me to just slow down and and feel like I'm in poor health, like someone who can't move around much, and it gets depressing over time for me.

Also I would think you wouldn't find South Florida to be a whole lot hotter than NC in the summer.
But then again, we all have different preference, I like shorter more mild winters, and summer is my favorite season, whereas as winter is your favorite season, so maybe you wouldn't like South Florida.

Honestly though, even though I don't like cold weather and prefer tropical weather most of the time, I wouldn't like a place that has no winter cooling at all. I like the winters in north and Central Florida that give me an enough taste of winter to bring a fresh change from a long summer and be happy when spring and summer returns, but not enough cold weather to hate it.

The only thing I don't like about Florida is the lack of mountains, otherwise I like everything else here.
Quoting 68. Dakster:

Maybe it will help California next year and bust this drought. Of course then we will hear of widespread flooding.

Because mother nature has a sense of humor like that.


whats even funnIER is that all the levees in cali are in tip top shape :(
115. JRRP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-120015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0007.150511T2330Z-150512T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
730 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 729 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EAST LAKE-ORIENT PARK...OR
NEAR TAMPA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...TEMPLE TERRACE...BRANDON...LUTZ...RIVERVIEW...EAST
LAKE-ORIENT PARK...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EGYPT LAKE-LETO...
UNIVERSITY...GREATER NORTHDALE...PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL...LAKE
MAGDALENE...GREATER CARROLLWOOD...CITRUS PARK...TOWN `N` COUNTRY...
WEST PARK...DAVIS ISLANDS...PETER O KNIGHT AIRPORT...LETTUCE LAKE
PARK AND SEFFNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2813 8253 2809 8220 2784 8229 2786 8240
2790 8241 2791 8245 2793 8246 2792 8249
2788 8249 2788 8253 2789 8253 2788 8254
2794 8253 2797 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 191DEG 3KT 2797 8242

$$

RAG
117. 882MB
Tropical Storm Dolphin is looking healthier as shear has relaxed a little. It no longer has an exposed center like the past couple of days, in fact it looks the best it has since it developed. People in Guam should really watch this storm closely, though there is still much uncertainty in forecast track, today there's more agreement on a path very near Guam. I think it will come close enough to bring some impacts. It all depends on how strong it gets before reaching Guam, because there could be some serious impacts if Dolphin gets stronger then anticipated.





Quoting 108. wartsttocs:



What happened to the "Modoki"? I guess one can always look for their analog years as conditions change every week, but it seems like a waste of time to me. Well if the idea is to throw as much stuff against the wall something will eventually stick and then one can claim to be right. ENSO modeling appears to be getting better for now. I still like to look at current conditions and the short-medium term projections. As a bonus it doesn't get you too attached to the result of some long range model or guess based on other years.

Current conditions are pretty exciting even though the current 3.4 is at a +1 degree anomaly so I wouldn't expect a big jump once the March-April-May ONI value is released. Being a witness to all this is very fun.



there was never a modoki forcast in the 1st place that what happens when you follow the modoki caster
I personally love the cold weather :).Puts me in a seasonal mood and I walk around all jolly while my co-workers who hate the cold look at me strangely.
Quoting 118. Tazmanian:




there was never a modoki forcast in the 1st place that what happens when you follow the modoki caster


I think you're right Taz, I do recall the subject being brought up earlier in the year on the blog however.

Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Winter is my favorite season. I don't think I could deal with living in Florida, which is a problem given that I want to work at the NHC eventually. I might just settle on a local WFO here in North Carolina and call it a day, haha.


Where are you planning on taking your undergrad studies at, NCSU?
Quoting 119. washingtonian115:

I personally love the cold weather :).Puts me in a seasonal mood and I walk around all jolly while my co-workers who hate the cold look at me strangely.



On the North Coast of CA, Winter is my favorite.
Steelhead, mushrooms, rushing rivers, dripping rain forest- what not to like?.
CWG has a article on a 1 year girl who survived the Tornado over the weekend with her parents shielding her who died in the process.
Link
Quoting 118. Tazmanian:




there was never a modoki forcast in the 1st place that what happens when you follow the modoki caster
Wat do you mean.?..That red stuff wuz wadded up in the Central Pacific for what seemed like years. Now it finally moves, and it was the Modoki Caster..?....?.....Its cool...I believe they messed up the definition of what a true El Nino is years ago
Quoting 121. cytochromeC:




On the North Coast of CA, Winter is my favorite.
Steelhead, mushrooms, rushing rivers, dripping rain forest- what not to like?.
You are a Saint.....I can tell..:)
Quoting 89. PedleyCA:



Just like the "Good Old Days"....
Yep...In your case the really ancient days...like when B.C. was fresh and new...:)
Quoting 122. washingtonian115:

CWG has a article on a 1 year girl who survived the Tornado over the weekend with her parents shielding her who died in the process.
Link
Damn tornadoes are the stuff of nightmares. Pray I never see one up close.
Quoting 96. CaribBoy:

It's crazy dry!!! Everything is brown... the nature is taking a serious beating from the drought. Lol and I was complaining in 2013 and 2014. 2015 is FAR worse!

Jan : 49mm (80% of average)
Feb : 31mm (66% of average)
March : 17mm (30% of average)
April : 25mm (40% of average)
May so far : 0.2mm (0% of average!!!!!)

Total for 2015 (4,5 months) so far : 122.2mm

That;s more than here for the same period 68.8mm(2.71")
Quoting 53. yoboi:



Very good point.... Like when people say the science is settled concerning AGW.....


It's been settled for 115 years. Most of the research these days is going into figuring out how it's going to affect us.

BTW, now need to copy-paste the opening paragraph of discredited nonsense. We all know how to click links and anyone who has read your posts in the past knows that your grasp of physics is...unique.

The link goes to a very old (and discredited) paper by one Ibso. You can think of this guy as the grand-daddy of deniers. The progenitor of the cherry pickers. The leader of the "Who needs physics when you have graphs!" movement.

And indeed, that was the paper. Instead of physics, Ibso et al. basically said "screw physics" and tried to develop an empirical model of how CO2 influences temperature. Empirical, not physical. That's a big red flag right there.

Then, instead of a broad based sampling of empirical data, they basically cherry picked the scenarios based on their desired conclusion (that CO2 doesn't impact temperatures). Certainly a red flag as well.

Finally, the nail in the proverbial coffin for this garbage is that if you take their conclusion and actually try to apply it in a real atmospheric model, it fails. Miserably. The planet goes from warm and cozy to planet snowball. As a general rule, if your claims violate thermodynamics then it is pretty much certain that your claims are not correct.

Physics Yoboi. If what you're posting doesn't even reflect reality, how can you expect anyone to take it seriously?
Quoting 120. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think you're right Taz, I do recall the subject being brought up earlier in the year on the blog however.



Where are you planning on taking your undergrad studies at, NCSU?

Fingers crossed. :)
Quoting 129. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Fingers crossed. :)


Good luck, I'm assuming you're trying to enroll there in the fall of 2016?
Quoting 129. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Fingers crossed. :)


Me too... Hope to see you up there in person next semester. :)
Quoting 130. win1gamegiantsplease:



Good luck, I'm assuming you're trying to enroll there in the fall of 2016?

Yeah. Though most of my friends at regular high schools are graduating this month, myself and most of my friends at our early college are staying super senior year so that we can graduate with our Associates degree from CFCC this time next year.

Quoting 131. Webberweather53:



Me too... Hope to see you up there in person next semester. :)

See above. Maybe fall 2016, lol.
133. yoboi
Quoting 128. Xyrus2000:



It's been settled for 115 years. Most of the research these days is going into figuring out how it's going to affect us.

BTW, now need to copy-paste the opening paragraph of discredited nonsense. We all know how to click links and anyone who has read your posts in the past knows that your grasp of physics is...unique.

The link goes to a very old (and discredited) paper by one Ibso. You can think of this guy as the grand-daddy of deniers. The progenitor of the cherry pickers. The leader of the "Who needs physics when you have graphs!" movement.

And indeed, that was the paper. Instead of physics, Ibso et al. basically said "screw physics" and tried to develop an empirical model of how CO2 influences temperature. Empirical, not physical. That's a big red flag right there.

Then, instead of a broad based sampling of empirical data, they basically cherry picked the scenarios based on their desired conclusion (that CO2 doesn't impact temperatures). Certainly a red flag as well.

Finally, the nail in the proverbial coffin for this garbage is that if you take their conclusion and actually try to apply it in a real atmospheric model, it fails. Miserably. The planet goes from warm and cozy to planet snowball. As a general rule, if your claims violate thermodynamics then it is pretty much certain that your claims are not correct.

Physics Yoboi. If what you're posting doesn't even reflect reality, how can you expect anyone to take it seriously?


Let's see what Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry in Waterloo's Faculty of Science thinks....

Link

Quoting 128. Xyrus2000:



It's been settled for 115 years. Most of the research these days is going into figuring out how it's going to affect us.

BTW, now need to copy-paste the opening paragraph of discredited nonsense. We all know how to click links and anyone who has read your posts in the past knows that your grasp of physics is...unique.

The link goes to a very old (and discredited) paper by one Ibso. You can think of this guy as the grand-daddy of deniers. The progenitor of the cherry pickers. The leader of the "Who needs physics when you have graphs!" movement.

And indeed, that was the paper. Instead of physics, Ibso et al. basically said "screw physics" and tried to develop an empirical model of how CO2 influences temperature. Empirical, not physical. That's a big red flag right there.

Then, instead of a broad based sampling of empirical data, they basically cherry picked the scenarios based on their desired conclusion (that CO2 doesn't impact temperatures). Certainly a red flag as well.

Finally, the nail in the proverbial coffin for this garbage is that if you take their conclusion and actually try to apply it in a real atmospheric model, it fails. Miserably. The planet goes from warm and cozy to planet snowball. As a general rule, if your claims violate thermodynamics then it is pretty much certain that your claims are not correct.

Physics Yoboi. If what you're posting doesn't even reflect reality, how can you expect anyone to take it seriously?


I believe the last administration repealed the laws of thermodynamics.
Quoting 134. cytochromeC:



I believe the last administration repealed the laws of thermodynamics.
My favorite is how thermodynamics exist in space rather than here on the precious Earth....no wonder they wear bullet proof insulation with built in AC and heater unit.
Quoting 132. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah. Though most of my friends at regular high schools are graduating this month, myself and most of my friends at our early college are staying super senior year so that we can graduate with our Associates degree from CFCC this time next year.


See above. Maybe fall 2016, lol.


Make sure you bring a dictionary with you.
Pretty nasty looking thunderstorms headed towards Danville, VA currently near Oak Ridge and Mayodan, NC. Probably a good 20-30 miles north of me currently moving northeast; lots of cloud to ground lightning has been associated with these. Quarter-sized hail also reported.

Quoting 132. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah. Though most of my friends at regular high schools are graduating this month, myself and most of my friends at our early college are staying super senior year so that we can graduate with our Associates degree from CFCC this time next year.


See above. Maybe fall 2016, lol.


Super-senior eh? That would be the college version of me currently. I have an associates from Guilford Tech but in liberal arts...I weaseled out of majoring in meteorology coming out of high school and just wanted something on paper, then after that realized something along those lines is indeed what I wanted to do so my friends have either already got their bachelors degrees or never went to school. I'm hoping to be done by not this fall but the following fall, at least I've already finished my minor in mathematics, just need to finish the physics major.
Quoting 137. win1gamegiantsplease:

Pretty nasty looking thunderstorms headed towards Danville, VA currently near Oak Ridge and Mayodan, NC. Probably a good 20-30 miles north of me currently moving northeast; lots of cloud to ground lightning has been associated with these. Quarter-sized hail also reported.



Super-senior eh? That would be the college version of me currently. I have an associates from Guilford Tech but in liberal arts...I weaseled out of majoring in meteorology coming out of high school and just wanted something on paper, then after that realized something along those lines is indeed what I wanted to do so my friends have either already got their bachelors degrees or never went to school. I'm hoping to be done by not this fall but the following fall, at least I've already finished my minor in mathematics, just need to finish the physics major.
JMO, but Physics is easier than Inviscid, irrotational flows and potential flow and complex variables. Thank God for Bernoulli.
Quoting 106. Jedkins01:



88 here with a 72 dewpoint, the high was 92, it's hot but in broad context not too bad overall, I'm used to the heat and moisture, better than living in a place that gets long cold winters, and still hot summers like up north, lol.

Nah, I like moderate summers, cool trout streams and don't mind cold winters as long as there is snow for the sleds (snowmobiles) and ice fishing
Quoting 133. yoboi:



Let's see what Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry in Waterloo's Faculty of Science thinks....

Link



Here's a critique from Skeptical Science of his latest 'effort':

Lu Blames Global Warming on CFCs (Curve Fitting Correlations)

And from Climate Science Watch:

Qing-Bin Lu revives debunked claims about cosmic rays and CFCs
Quoting 138. hydrus:

JMO, but Physics is easier than Inviscid, irrotational flows and potential flow and complex variables. Thank God for Bernoulli.


And I haven't even taken quantum yet, that'll be two semesters from now. If only I had taken calculus in comm college I'd be much closer. Don't know why I didn't because it's much easier than I thought going in, I got a 96 in differential equations after I knocked those out of the way.
Quoting 140. LAbonbon:


Here's a critique from Skeptical Science of his latest 'effort':

Lu Blames Global Warming on CFCs (Curve Fitting Correlations)

And from Climate Science Watch:

Qing-Bin Lu revives debunked claims about cosmic rays and CFCs

Thanks for saving me the trouble of finding that again. At least denialists recycle. So, they've got that going for them.

Cooling off again and there is a rain chance for Thurs-Fri....
Quoting 116. Jedkins01:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-120015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0007.150511T2330Z-150512T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
730 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 729 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EAST LAKE-ORIENT PARK...OR
NEAR TAMPA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...TEMPLE TERRACE...BRANDON...LUTZ...RIVERVIEW...EAST
LAKE-ORIENT PARK...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EGYPT LAKE-LETO...
UNIVERSITY...GREATER NORTHDALE...PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL...LAKE
MAGDALENE...GREATER CARROLLWOOD...CITRUS PARK...TOWN `N` COUNTRY...
WEST PARK...DAVIS ISLANDS...PETER O KNIGHT AIRPORT...LETTUCE LAKE
PARK AND SEFFNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2813 8253 2809 8220 2784 8229 2786 8240
2790 8241 2791 8245 2793 8246 2792 8249
2788 8249 2788 8253 2789 8253 2788 8254
2794 8253 2797 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 191DEG 3KT 2797 8242

$$

RAG



not sure why they included citrus park in that warning. It didn't even rain here.
Quoting 115. JRRP:




Little rain in the forecast for East Central Florida. Looks like the winds will be out of the southeast which will stack up the seabreeze storms on the west side of the state. Its getting awfully dry here in Sanford
Quoting 142. Misanthroptimist:


Thanks for saving me the trouble of finding that again. At least denialists recycle. So, they've got that going for them.

No, we should be thanking you all. I saw some of the earlier posts, from Spencer to Idso...you guys handled all those. When I saw QB Lu, I figured I could help out a little...

I have to say that Xyrus was in classic form-great response. And his 'The progenitor of the cherry pickers' was up there with your 'You're mixing greenhouse grown tomatoes with kudzu' from the previous blog. Like I said earlier, this blog does come up with some gems :)
No wonder why I hate the Pats. Cheaters!


Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter 4h 4 hours ago

Filed to ESPN: Tom Brady suspended four games, Pats lose 1st round pick in 2016 and a 4th in 2017, and team fined $1 million, per source:
Quoting 106. Jedkins01:



88 here with a 72 dewpoint, the high was 92, it's hot but in broad context not too bad overall, I'm used to the heat and moisture, better than living in a place that gets long cold winters, and still hot summers like up north, lol.

To me, it felt as hot and humid as a summer day here. And unless I can wear shorts and a t-shirt and am not doing much physical labor outside, I can tolerate it. But lately it's been getting a little tiring with this humid heat: I wouldn't completely mind moving somewhere out West or north where it's drier and cooler much more of the time.
Quoting 148. opal92nwf:

To me, it felt as hot and humid as a summer day here. And unless I can wear shorts and a t-shirt and am not doing much physical labor outside, I can tolerate it. But lately it's been getting a little tiring with this humid heat: I wouldn't completely mind moving somewhere out West or north where it's drier and cooler much more of the time.


Relentless amount of lightning to my west a little bit ago. Strikes every second to my west for 45 minutes.
151. yoboi
Quoting 140. LAbonbon:


Here's a critique from Skeptical Science of his latest 'effort':

Lu Blames Global Warming on CFCs (Curve Fitting Correlations)

And from Climate Science Watch:

Qing-Bin Lu revives debunked claims about cosmic rays and CFCs


If the trend fits you must....

A 1997 style SOI crash going on. Another major drop again today as the 30 day value went from -8.5 to -9.9 in one day!

153. 882MB
Very strong subtropical jet, moving from the central Pacific to Mexico.

Quoting 103. CaribBoy:



Dense SAL, fresh trades, frequent high clouds, little to no rain... I don't like it at all. And it's not good for a beautiful post card.

The aftermath of a cat3 hurricane doesn't make for a pretty postcard either.....plus more importantly folks get killed.
Quoting 153. 882MB:
Very strong subtropical jet, moving from the central Pacific to Mexico.



It's beginning. The beast shall be released!
Quoting 147. StormTrackerScott:

No wonder why I hate the Pats. Cheaters!


Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter � 4h 4 hours ago

Filed to ESPN: Tom Brady suspended four games, Pats lose 1st round pick in 2016 and a 4th in 2017, and team fined $1 million, per source:



And they still couldn't beat Eli Manning...twice!
Quoting 151. yoboi:



If the trend fits you must....




It actually all about pirates:
Link
Looks like a lull in tornado activity for most of this week, ramping up by the weekend and into next week. After a very quiet start, 2015 is trying to catch up to average quickly.

US Tornadoes: Tornado Threat Forecast: May 11-17, 2015

Quoting 155. StormTrackerScott:



It's beginning. The beast shall be released!

Sorry. Knew I shouldn't have had Taco Bell for dinner.
These recurving typhoons should deliver the East a full-latitude trough by sometime next week!
Quoting 154. CosmicEvents:


The aftermath of a cat3 hurricane doesn't make for a pretty postcard either.....plus more importantly folks get killed.


Sure... but good and regular tropical rains help a lot to get beautiful pictures once the clear blue sky is back :-)
Quoting 72. tampabaymatt:



Hopefully some beneficial rains for CA.


I can't even trust myself to make a reasonable guestimate. Kinda hoovers that I was right about the big dry, when I was asked for a predictoguess by my housemate for what kind of planting season to plan for this year.

I'm HOPING I'm right about the rains coming back. We're certainly getting some desperately needed off-season rains.
Quoting 153. 882MB:

Very strong subtropical jet, moving from the central Pacific to Mexico.




Fueling and triggering the explosive/volatile atmospheric conditions for Storms w/torrential rains occurring now in South Texas!
163. 882MB
New forecast track out for Tropical Storm Dolphin, has shifted northward closer to Guam. System looks better organized, though still battling some shear.







Quoting 151. yoboi:



If the trend fits you must....



Yeah...except 2014 was the warmest year on record. Buh-bye, Dr. Lu! No CFC soup for you. lol

Maybe Dr. Lu can use one of these graphs instead. They're no worse than his.
Quoting 161. nonblanche:



I can't even trust myself to make a reasonable guestimate. Kinda hoovers that I was right about the big dry, when I was asked for a predictoguess by my housemate for what kind of planting season to plan for this year.

I'm HOPING I'm right about the rains coming back. We're certainly getting some desperately needed off-season rains.


5"-6"+ Rainfall totals being reported west and southwest of Corpus Christi, Tx.
166. 882MB
Quoting 162. CCTXStormTracker:



Fueling and triggering the explosive/volatile atmospheric conditions for Storms w/torrential rains occurring now in South Texas!


Indeed it is.

More severe weather in the plains possible this weekend with even more torrential rain for central oklahoma.
Quoting 165. CCTXStormTracker:



5"-6"+ Rainfall totals being reported west and southwest of Corpus Christi, Tx.


Too far east for us. We're in Northern Nevada, Churchill County. Rains should have mostly been done by now but we've gotten what, locally close to 2 inches in and around Fallon NAS since that first late April storm. Plus according to my WU app Thursday is up to 40% chance of precip. That's huge for around here.
Quoting 168. nonblanche:



Too far east for us. We're in Northern Nevada, Churchill County. Rains should have mostly been done by now but we've gotten what, locally close to 2 inches in and around Fallon NAS since that first late April storm. Plus according to my WU app Thursday is up to 40% chance of precip. That's huge for around here.


good Luck! Local weather Met just reported totals now approaching 7"-8"+...crazy! hopefully some of those rains develop more to our northwest- our watershed region. we've been under water restrictions.
170. 882MB
We now have 95W our next possible typhoon. What a season it is turning out to be in W PAC.



Quoting 170. 882MB:

we now have 95W our next possible typhoon. What a season it is turning out to be in W PAC.






Moving due south. How odd.
with the W PAC on fire right now this is vary good news for CA has the storm head N in too the jet if this where fall CA would be seeing a crap tone of rain



you can tell we are in a mod EL nino right now


i wounder if the E pac will be on fire soon
Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link
Water Pricing in Two Thirsty Cities: In One, Guzzlers Pay More, and Use Less

extract from article:

Ron and Donna Fena, who have a swimming pool as well as a koi pond in their backyard, say they used only 14,000 gallons last month and are following the guidelines on weekly watering, but they say that's beside the point.

"People are focusing too much on lawns," Ms. Fena said. "There is still a lot of water around."

She complained that half of California's surface water goes to keeping rivers flowing and other environmental needs, like sustaining fisheries and also preventing endangered species like the delta smelt from becoming extinct.

"I like fish, but I'm not giving up my lawn for some smelt," Ms. Fena said, only half-joking. "Let those fish die up north. There's a cycle of life."
Quoting 173. Gustavike:

Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link

Why do you keep posting this?
NOVA: Lethal Seas about the effects of increasing concentrations of CO2 on marine life will be airing at 9 p.m. Wednesday May 13 on your local PBS station.
*****Breaking News****

Hot off the press from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

El Niño in the tropical Pacific
The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:51 PM EST May 12 2015
=======================

A tropical low has developed near the Solomon Islands at approximately 8.0S 161.0E. The low is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days and may develop further.

The system will remain very far offshore during the forecast period and does not pose an immediate threat to the Queeensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==========================
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Moderate
Quoting 176. Gearsts:

Why do you keep posting this?

I'm wondering same thing too
Quoting 174. AussieStorm:

Just a few articles I have read over the last few days.

World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say

A strong El Nino may quell debate about a warming 'hiatus'

Growing Antarctic sea ice limiting access to continent


From the first link

If anything, forecasters have been overly cautious, he added. Some models generated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and not widely seen are pointing to "humungous anomalies" of as much as 5 degrees by October- November for parts of the eastern Pacific.

Even the ensemble of models is pointing to a 3-degree temperature anomaly by then, placing the departure from the norm in a similar league to previously powerful events such as the "super El Nino" of 1997 or 1982, Dr Cai said, cautioning that conditions could yet ease back.

Very bad morning news once again from Nepal:
Nepal earthquake, magnitude 7.3, strikes near Everest
BBC News, 12 minutes ago


------------

Drought-hit Southern Africa at risk of food shortage - WFP
Source: Reuters - Mon, 11 May 2015 16:04 GMT
JOHANNESBURG, May 11 (Reuters) - Southern Africa faces possible food shortages over the next few months due to a severe drought in the 'maize belt' of South Africa, where a lack of rain had caused crop failure rates of over 50 percent, the World Food Programme (WFP) said on Monday. ...
Some super photos here ...
Watch invisible gravity waves rumble through the atmosphere
Science Daily, Date: May 11, 2015, Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Summary: Just as waves ripple across a pond when a tossed stone disturbs the water's surface, gravity waves ripple toward space from disturbances in the lower atmosphere.
Excerpt: In a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, Liu and his colleagues demonstrated the finer-scaled model's abilities by showing how gravity waves such as those created by a tropical cyclone east of Australia grew as they traveled upwards. The model shows that what starts out as a localized phenomenon extends across the entire Pacific Region at 100 km above Earth's surface.

Massive southern invasions by northern birds linked to climate shifts
Science Daily, Date: May 11, 2015, Source: University of Utah
Summary: Scientists have pinpointed the climate pattern that likely sets the stage for boreal bird irruptions in which vast numbers of northern birds migrate far south of their usual winter range. The discovery could make it possible to predict the events more than a year in advance.

Trees use water more efficiently when atmospheric carbon dioxide is high
Science Daily, Date: May 11, 2015, Source: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Summary: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have already caused large-scale physiological responses of European forests. In particular, the efficiency of water-use of trees, which is coupled to the uptake of carbon dioxide during photosynthesis of leaves and needles has changed significantly. According to the study of a large, interdisciplinary team of researchers, European broadleaf and coniferous trees have increased their water-use efficiency since the beginning of the 20th century by 14% and 22%, respectively.
Quoting 161. nonblanche:



I can't even trust myself to make a reasonable guestimate. Kinda hoovers that I was right about the big dry, when I was asked for a predictoguess by my housemate for what kind of planting season to plan for this year.

I'm HOPING I'm right about the rains coming back. We're certainly getting some desperately needed off-season rains.


Hope the Drought monitor will be truthful for once this Thursday and show most of the drought in Texas, Oklahoma. Colorado, and Eastern New Mexico will be wiped off their map!
no sign of rainy season here in e cen fl. there was not a cloud in the sky yesterday afternoon
The strongest ocean in the world is already exploding with some very powerful systems, It will be interesting to watch this year s el nino and how much stronger it will get...we all know how active the northwestern pacific was back in 1997.
Quoting 187. islander101010:

no sign of rainy season here in e cen fl. there was not a cloud in the sky yesterday afternoon
It's the west coasts turn...typical S.E. trades pushing activity to west side of state this week and next it looks like.
Good morning all. Looks like it's destined to hit the upper 80s today.. Good thing I wore my dri-fit nike short-sleeve today. :D

Quoting 186. tampabaymatt:




Looks like they've lowered the expected amounts for California in the latest 7-day. Ugh.
191. MahFL
Quoting 147. StormTrackerScott:

No wonder why I hate the Pats. Cheaters!


Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter � 4h 4 hours ago

Filed to ESPN: Tom Brady suspended four games, Pats lose 1st round pick in 2016 and a 4th in 2017, and team fined $1 million, per source:



Yes, and Brady will never admit it, either, shameful.
Quoting 192. MahFL:



Hm, let your lush green lawn, in a desert, go brown an die....idiot.


She sounds like she's not in touch with reality. She's also not sympathetic to (or perhaps even knowledgable of) the water situation in California. Either way, she needs a serious lesson in several subjects, including biology, climatology, and water management. Ignorance is never an excuse.
Quoting 189. Abacosurf:

It's the west coasts turn...typical S.E. trades pushing activity to west side of state this week and next it looks like.


We've had storms in the area the past three days here just south of Fort Myers. We picked up .19" here at the house yesterday and I'm up to .45" for the month (still very dry, but at least the pattern is changing).

Still major brush fire issues going on to my south. Combination of thunderstorms/lightning with very dry conditions have started these fires.

Fire consumes hundreds of acres in Big Cypress
COLLIER COUNTY, FL -
Crews continue to work multiple brush fires in Collier County in the Big Cypress National Preserve area.

The largest is an 1,800-acre fire, which firefighters have about 15-percent contained, that is five miles south of mile marker 63 on Alligator Alley - as of Monday night.
Link
LINK REQUEST!

Does anybody have a source that describes all of the cascading effects of a moderate to strong El Nino across the globe? Wikipedia is kind of sparse in this instance.
Quoting 189. Abacosurf:

It's the west coasts turn...typical S.E. trades pushing activity to west side of state this week and next it looks like.


NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning last night for Tampa. Very strong thunderstorm sat on the USF/Temple Terrace area for about 45 minutes and rained itself out. Hail was reported, and they received a little over 2 inches of rain. I heard the boomers loud and clear but got no rain out of it. Maybe today.
Good Morning. The Aussies have declared El Nino..............No surprise.


El Niño in the tropical Pacific

Issued on 12 May 2015 

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


And here is the forecast for the US today: at least the mid-west has a break from organized severe weather for a few days in spite of the rain and t-storm forecast for some sections.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 AM EDT Tue May 12 2015

Valid 12Z Tue May 12 2015 - 12Z Thu May 14 2015

***Refreshing change on the way for the eastern U.S. by midweek***

***Bad weather continues for the southern Plains***

***Unsettled weather over parts of the western U.S.***

After multiple days of unseasonably warm and humid weather for much of the
eastern U.S., a cold front is forecast to reach the East Coast by Tuesday
night and bring a welcome change to cooler temperatures and lower
humidity. The heat will remain for one more day on Tuesday east of the
Appalachians, with highs well into the 80s and even a few low 90s
possible. For Wednesday and Thursday, highs will be near normal with
readings in the 60s and 70s, and comfortable overnight lows. There will
be some scattered showers and storms in association with this front, but
nothing widespread is expected and many places may see a dry frontal
passage.

It's a different story for Texas and the central Plains. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected over the next couple of days for Texas
as deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to interact with a
stalled out frontal boundary over the southern half of the state.
Multiple thunderstorm complexes are likely, and these could easily bring
several inches of rain and some severe weather as well. By later in the
period, heavy rainfall is expected to return to parts of the central
Plains with very humid air surging north along a warm front.

For the western states, a pronounced upper-level trough over the Pacific
Northwest and California will remain over the region through Wednesday.
Shortwaves pivoting around this trough will provide enough lift for
scattered to numerous showers for the northwest Coast through Wednesday
morning. The same holds true for the Intermountain Region and northern
Rockies where a few thunderstorms are possible, with snow at the highest
elevations.


The updated forecast by the JMA is similar to the rest of the models which is a near 3C El-Nino eclipsing the 1997 event. Remember the JMA accurately forecasted this event last year. Well see as the JMA is showing exactly a 2.88C event.

And as noted earlier this morning, and with warm El Nino SST's and lower trade winds, the West Pac season is a booming:

Quoting 187. islander101010:

no sign of rainy season here in e cen fl. there was not a cloud in the sky yesterday afternoon


??? We had thunderstorms near my place infact just a 1/2 mile down the street was a good rain and last night there was an insane lightning storm over by Leesburg which let up the evening sky with a spectacular light show. Your not getting rain because of the seabreeze pushing everything inland.


Dolphin looks like it's getting it's act together, though, not moving much.
And finally (from me) a new article on sea level rise:

The results, published today in Nature Climate Change, show that global mean sea level rose slightly slower than previously thought between 1993 and 2014, but that sea level rise is indeed accelerating. The new findings agree more closely with other records of changing sea levels, like those produced by tide gauges and bottom-up accounting of the contributions from ocean warming and melting ice.

In the past, researchers have used tide gauges to keep tabs on the performance of satellite altimeters, which use radar to measure the height of the sea surface. The comparison allowed them to sniff out and cope with any issues that cropped up with the satellite sensors. Tide gauges themselves are not immune to problems, however; the land on which they rest can shift during earthquakes, or subside because of groundwater withdrawal or sediment settling. These processes can produce apparent changes in sea level that have nothing to do with the oceans.

So Watson’s team tried to correct for the rise and fall of tide gauge sites by using nearby global positioning satellite (GPS) stations, which measure land motions. If no GPS stations were present, they used computer models to estimate known changes, such as how some regions continue to rebound from the last glaciation, when heavy ice sheets caused land to sink.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/05/sea-le vel-rise-accelerating-faster-thought

If you want my opinion I think Tom Brady was the "Trap Queen" by the Patriots. If you don't know what a Trap Queen is then here you go.

Link
Quoting 197. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. The Aussies have declared El Nino..............No surprise.


El Niño in the tropical Pacific

Issued on 12 May 2015 

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/






Quoting 196. tampabaymatt:



NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning last night for Tampa. Very strong thunderstorm sat on the USF/Temple Terrace area for about 45 minutes and rained itself out. Hail was reported, and they received a little over 2 inches of rain. I heard the boomers loud and clear but got no rain out of it. Maybe today.
Same at my location (Gandy &4th). I saw some nice lightning strikes from the tiny cell that formed on the S end of the complex, just off of Mac Dill AFB. It appears as if the summer pattern is upon us.
Quoting 206. StormTrackerScott:

If you want my opinion I think Tom Brady was the "Trap Queen" by the Patriots. If you don't know what a Trap Queen is then here you go.

Link

I'm none the wiser...but I couldn't make it through much of that alleged music.
Quoting 209. Misanthroptimist:


I'm none the wiser...but I couldn't make it through much of that alleged music.


Basically the NFL pinned it all on Brady when this was likely known at the top of the organization so everyone remained quiet then Brady became the Fall guy. That's basically a Trap Queen.
Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:



Basically the NFL pinned it all on Brady when this was likely known at the top of the organization so everyone remained quiet then Brady became the Fall guy. That's basically a Trap Queen.

Thank you. :-)
Quoting 210. AussieStorm:

Bureau of Meteorology officially declares a major El Nino; predicts drier, hotter conditions

El Nino outlook a daunting prospect for farmers already in the grip of drought


I've been saying after the 2014 event flopped that in Summer 2015 El-Nino would make a major appearance and many on here about lost it. January was the month that it reached a tipping point on here where many members decided to bash me page after page after page of blog post. Well those posters have been put to rest. There was a meme made by Webberweather too just 2 weeks ago saying basically I was still nuts about saying a strong El-Nino would make an appearance. needless to say I take it and move on.
Here is the text for the JMA forecast below.

May .99 June 1.19 July 1.48 August 1.96 September 2.27 October 2.68 November 2.88
It's this 1997 style WWB coming late May that will set the stage.

Lordy'.....


El Nino ..

Such a Hoax.
SOI still crashing and will all week.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 12 May 2015
Average for last 30 days -10.11
Average for last 90 days -6.80
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -35.14

Good Morning:

El Nino: We knew you were on your way. Now, let's see how strong you get!

T. S. Ana: The strongest tropical storm to make USA landfall so early in the season. The GFS and other models predicted the tropical storm genesis - a week before it happened.

Still thinking there will be a few more named storms to come - before the peak of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

Although we might have fewer named storms in the ATL basin this year, we still have to watch the GOM and SW ATL. Might get very interesting!

It's all that you've talked about Scott since December 2013 :)
Typhoon Dolphin

Quoting 219. washingtonian115:

It's all that you've talked about Scott since December 2013 :)


To be hones I thought we would have seen this Strong El-Nino last year but it was very odd as in May last year the WWB stopped and Easterly trades strengthened so it flopped. However I knew because it flopped it was setting us up for potentially a bigger event come this year as there has been a lot of Oceanic Heat build up across the W-Pac for 6 years now. At some point that heat has to be released. Call it a balancing act.
Quoting 213. StormTrackerScott:



I've been saying after the 2014 event flopped that in Summer 2015 El-Nino would make a major appearance and many on here about lost it. January was the month that it reached a tipping point on here where many members decided to bash me page after page after page of blog post. Well those posters have been put to rest. There was a meme made by Webberweather too just 2 weeks ago saying basically I was still nuts about saying a strong El-Nino would make an appearance. needless to say I take it and move on.


Mate, if I had of been here back then, I would of firmly backed you up.

This storm system over Texas. It's a beauty. If it moves into the GOM and chance of it "developing"?
Quoting 218. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning:

El Nino: We knew you were on your way. Now, let's see how strong you get!

T. S. Ana: The strongest tropical storm to make USA landfall so early in the season. The GFS and other models predicted the tropical storm genesis - a week before it happened.

Still thinking there will be a few more named storms to come - before the peak of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

Although we might have fewer named storms in the ATL basin this year, we still have to watch the GOM and SW ATL. Might get very interesting!




GFS has another long range but way way out there though. Typical mid to late May horror appearing on the GFS.

Quoting 133. yoboi:



Let's see what Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry in Waterloo's Faculty of Science thinks....

Link




By the logic presented there, I could show a graph of temperature vs. the number of your posts and come to the conclusion that if you only stopped posting, global warming would go away and the arctic ice would recover.

P.H.Y.S.I.C.S. Physics. Posting debunked nonsense about linear regressions and coincidental correlations is not even close to a real physical model of phenomena. If you produce a research result, and some scientists takes those results and tries to feed it through even a rudimentary physical model to replicate the results and doesn't even come close, then all the cherry picking, graph-crafting, and statistical manipulation in the world isn't going to validate your research. Especially when the basic physical principles known for 100-200 years provide a ready explanation for said phenomena and, more importantly, can effectively replicate both current and historical observations and data.

Graphs, linear regressions, and correlations are not physics.


Quoting 222. AussieStorm:



Mate, if I had of been here back then, I would of firmly backed you up.


Anytime I think of the Down Under I think of Fosters. I know its early in the day but a cold one sounds good right about now. Greeting Aussie!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
354 am CDT Tuesday may 12 2015

Short term...

A very persistent pattern of unsettled weather will dominate the
Gulf south through Friday...with a strong ridge axis parked over
the southeastern Continental U.S. And eastern Gulf of Mexico...and a series
of weak fast moving upper level impulses ejecting out of Texas and
sliding across the forecast area. Deep layer southerly flow will
be in control of the area through the period...which will keep a
warm and unstable airmass over the area. Additionally...a weak
front that is expected to wash out during the day on Wednesday
will serve as a focus for more concentrated rainfall on Tuesday.
This front will generally stall along the I-10 corridor today and
linger into the early Wednesday before dissipating Wednesday
afternoon. Overall...the highest rain chances will be timed with
passing upper level vorticity features...with lower rain chances
between these systems due to lower precipitable water
values and a lack of strong forcing aloft.

The first system is currently over the Texas Gulf Coast and will
lift into the forecast area by this afternoon. Strong Omega aloft
will overspread the area...and allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late morning and
afternoon hours as the atmosphere destabilizes. Before the rain
starts...a low level inversion will continue to bring a low deck
of clouds and some fog to the area. The low ceilings and fog
should begin to clear around middle-morning as boundary layer mixing
increases. Rain chances will be highest in the vicinity of the
front and just to the north...due to the increased low level
convergence and the expected north to northeast storm motions.
Have kept likely probability of precipitation in for the northern half of the forecast
area...with chance probability of precipitation for much of the remaining area.

The initial vorticity will slide to the east and weaken as it moves
toward the Florida Panhandle tonight...and some weak negative
vorticity advection and subsidence will take hold of the area.
Drier air will also begin to advect into the mid-levels...which
will drop precipitable water values from around 1.8 inches to 1.4
inches overnight. Any lingering convection in the evening hours
should quickly dissipate by midnight. In fact...another low level
inversion should develop around daybreak over far inland
zones...and have included some fog in the forecast to reflect
this. Heading into tomorrow...much lower rain chances in the
forecast...with only isolated probability of precipitation in the vicinity of the
dissipating front included. More places than not will see dry
weather through the day tomorrow. With more breaks in the clouds
expected tomorrow afternoon...temperatures should warm from the
lower 80s seen today back into the middle 80s by tomorrow
afternoon. The dry weather regime will linger into Wednesday night
with another round of patchy fog once again possible toward
daybreak.
Its going to be a convectively active day across the FL Penisula as deep moisture is already firing storms near the Space Coast.

Quoting 227. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime I think of the Down Under I think of Fosters. I know its early in the day but a cold one sounds good right about now. Greeting Aussie!


Fosters, yuck.
The insanity continues out west.

Forbidden Data

Wyoming just criminalized citizen science.

By Justin Pidot


Imagine visiting Yellowstone this summer. You wake up before dawn to take a picture of the sunrise over the mists emanating from Yellowstone hot springs. A thunderhead towers above the rising sun, and the picture turns out beautifully. You submit the photo to a contest sponsored by the National Weather Service. Under a statute signed into law by the Wyoming governor this spring, you have just committed a crime and could face up to one year in prison.

Wyoming doesn’t, of course, care about pictures of geysers or photo competitions. But photos are a type of data, and the new law makes it a crime to gather data about the condition of the environment across most of the state if you plan to share that data with the state or federal government.

The reason? The state wants to conceal the fact that many of its streams are contaminated by E. coli bacteria, strains of which can cause serious health problems, even death. A small organization called Western Watersheds Project (which I represent pro bono in an unrelated lawsuit) has found the bacteria in a number of streams crossing federal land in concentrations that violate water quality standards under the federal Clean Water Act. Rather than engaging in an honest public debate about the cause or extent of the problem, Wyoming prefers to pretend the problem doesn’t exist. And under the new law, the state threatens anyone who would challenge that belief by producing information to the contrary with a term in jail.

more'...
GFS Far out:





Quoting 231. AussieStorm:



Fosters, yuck.


Dash,doo, double yuck.

Any Beer Man knows that stuff is only good for stripping enamel off goat nails.
CMC


See that disturbance in the central Caribbean. This might create Bill.
Quoting 234. Patrap:



Dash,doo, double yuck.

Any Beer Man knows that stuff is only good for stripping enamel off goat nails.
The goats here wont drink it or let it near there nails...We drank a lot of busch and Schaefer back when..Not bad taste, but the price wuz fab...when one receives a case a brew for under 6 bucks, it goes a long way. If pay permitted it, it was Molsens or Michelob.

This is the type of favorable wind shear we need.
Quoting 231. AussieStorm:



Fosters, yuck.


Not a fan, Modelo is my go-to convenience store import.

The current Wind Shear

Will be updated later today. I wonder when the eastern Pacific will light up.
Quoting 222. AussieStorm:



Mate, if I had of been here back then, I would of firmly backed you up.
Aussie good to see you back. Have always enjoyed your posts from the Land Down Under. A toast to your health and you in great spirits.
aussies finally come on board with el nino


El Niño in the tropical Pacific
Issued on 12 May 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El Niño is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year.
what do they say about future strength.....

Model outlooks
All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will remain above El Niño thresholds through the southern winter and at least well into spring. The average value of NINO3.4 expected by the end of the southern winter is about +1.5 °C; however, it is too early to determine with confidence how strong this potential El Niño could be.
Heavy thunderstorms developing right now over Germany.

Live lightning detector (you can activate the sound by the left bar as well).
~
Quoting 216. Patrap:

Lordy'.....


El Nino ..

Such a Hoax.
Now youve done it.

You dissed Nino.

Now he will be angry,


and beat us like a cheap grade pinata.
247. yoboi
Quoting 226. Xyrus2000:



By the logic presented there, I could show a graph of temperature vs. the number of your posts and come to the conclusion that if you only stopped posting, global warming would go away and the arctic ice would recover.

P.H.Y.S.I.C.S. Physics. Posting debunked nonsense about linear regressions and coincidental correlations is not even close to a real physical model of phenomena. If you produce a research result, and some scientists takes those results and tries to feed it through even a rudimentary physical model to replicate the results and doesn't even come close, then all the cherry picking, graph-crafting, and statistical manipulation in the world isn't going to validate your research. Especially when the basic physical principles known for 100-200 years provide a ready explanation for said phenomena and, more importantly, can effectively replicate both current and historical observations and data.

Graphs, linear regressions, and correlations are not physics.





And you can have an ice age with CO2 levels at 2000-8000 ppm.....

Quoting 238. HurricaneAndre:


This is the type of favorable wind shear we need.



i think many of us no that all ready
there's still a lot of warm water at austrailia and north...which will have to cool before and if we are to see a strong el nino


current....



may 12 1997

Quoting 242. Wolfberry:

Aussie good to see you back. Have always enjoyed your posts from the Land Down Under. A toast to your health and you in great spirits.


Thanks. I have always been here just lurking on and off. Health wise it is more on the - then the side.
Quoting 247. yoboi:



And you can have an ice age with CO2 levels at 2000-8000 ppm.....[Crap image from "Steven Goddard" blog post.


It's almost as if there are other factors that drove climate change in the past (supercontinent formation/breakup, lower-intensity radiation from the sun in the early Phanerozoic) that were more important than CO2; those factors aren't present in this current episode, in which CO2 is the dominant forcing.

Of course, this has already been shown to you multiple times on your now multi-year merry-go-round of anti-science trolling; this isn't the first time around this circle. It's a shame this site refuses to moderate anti-science bilge from "Steven Goddard" (Tony Heller) and those who persistently promulgate it out of here. I'm pretty sure Dr. Masters doesn't endorse this garbage.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
way out in time but GFS takes a low off cuba into so.florida and up to say tampa bay...........
Quoting 249. ricderr:

there's still a lot of warm water at austrailia and north...which will have to cool before and if we are to see a strong el nino


current....



may 12 1997




According to STS we are already pretty much at a strong El Niño heading for a super El Niño.
Quoting 254. Bucsboltsfan:



According to STS we are already pretty much at a strong El Niño heading for a super El Niño.
At least its starting to look like one.
Quoting 224. StormTrackerScott:



GFS has another long range but way way out there though. Typical mid to late May horror appearing on the GFS.



Tropical Storm?