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Ana a Tropical Storm; Complicated Severe Threat for U.S. Plains

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:22 PM GMT on May 09, 2015

Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Saturday evening along much of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts as slow-moving Tropical Storm Ana plods to the northwest at 3 mph. Ana gained enough heavy thunderstorms near its center on Saturday morning to be classified as a tropical storm, but long-range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina and satellite loops on Saturday afternoon showed that these thunderstorms were of only modest intensity and areal coverage, and were only slowly increasing. Strong upper level winds out of the north were creating an increasing amount of wind shear over Ana on Saturday morning, and the shear had reached a high 20 knots by 8 am EDT. This shear was driving dry air into the northern side of Ana, and keeping heavy thunderstorm activity limited on that side. Ocean temperatures were near 25°C (77°F), which is just at the limit of where a tropical storm can sustain itself. The Frying Pan Shoals Buoy 41013, located off the coast of North Carolina about 40 miles northeast of the center of Ana, recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 40 mph, at 9:50 am EDT. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory pointed out to me this morning that significant wave heights in Ana have not been very impressive over the past few days, less than ten feet, suggesting that the advertised peak winds of Ana of 60 mph were either too high or were affecting a very small portion of the ocean.


Figure 1. Subtropical Storm Ana as seen by the International Space Station on Thursday afternoon, May 8, 2015. At the time, Ana had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: Scott Kelly.


Figure 2. Radar image of Ana taken at 12:03 pm EDT Saturday May 9, 2015, from Wilmington, North Carolina. A modest rainband was affecting the coast of North Carolina, but the main activity was still out to sea.

Forecast for Ana
The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear will remain a moderately high 20 knots until the storm makes landfall early Sunday morning, and ocean temperatures beneath the core of the storm will cool to 22°C (72°F) by Sunday morning. These two effects should act to weaken Ana before landfall, and the storm should have sustained winds no stronger then 50 mph at landfall. The 0Z Saturday morning runs of our two top models for predicting tropical cyclone tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed the system making landfall on Sunday between 1 am - 5 am EDT near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. With winds of 50 mph, rainfall of 1 - 3 inches, and a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet likely the worst impacts that Ana can deliver, the main danger of the storm may be rip currents that can drown unwary swimmers.


Figure 3. Typhoon Noul as seen by the International Space Station on Thursday, May 8, 2015. At the time, Noul was a Category 3 storm with top winds of 115 mph. Image credit: Terry Virts.

Category 4 Typhoon Noul headed for the northern Philippines
Category 4 Typhoon Noul (called Dodong in the Philippines’ naming system) continued a slow intensification process on Saturday, with winds estimated at 135 mph as of 8 am EDT. Satellite loops on Saturday afternoon showed that Noul was a medium-sized storm with a 14-mile diameter eye and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Landfall of the center is expected to occur in northeastern Luzon Island near 2 am EDT Sunday (06 UTC), according to the 0Z Saturday run of the GFS model. Noul is encountering a trough of low pressure as it approaches the Philippines, which is inducing a more northwesterly track. This may cause the storm's eye to miss the Philippines, as predicted by the 0Z Saturday run of the European model. In either case, Luzon will be on the weaker left front side of Noul, which will make heavy rains the main threat from the storm. I do not expect this to be a major disaster for the Philippines; loss of life should be limited and damage in the tens of millions of dollars even if Noul makes a grazing landfall as a Category 4 storm. With wind shear still a light 5 - 10 knots and warm ocean waters ahead of it, Noul should be able to hold on to Category 4 strength until just a few hours before landfall.

Widespread rains complicate severe potential for this weekend
Round after round of heavy rain has triggered flooding in communities across the southern Plains while also denting the atmosphere’s potential to product tornadic supercells. Once again on Friday, a large convective complex developed by midafternoon before more classic, discrete supercells had a chance to form. The complex spun out several brief tornadoes along its southern fringes while dumping several inches of rain from north Texas across much of Oklahoma. The sense of deja vu was especially strong in northern parts of Norman, OK, where the same areas struck by flooding and an EF1 tornado on Wednesday experienced hail larger than golf balls, winds to 73 mph, and 1” - 2” of rain on Friday, knocking out windows and knocking down power lines. At the other end of the storm complex, softball-sized hail was reported near Slaton, TX (southeast of Lubbock). Rainfall totals for Tuesday through Saturday morning ranged from 5” to more than 10” across parts of the southern half of Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.


Figure 4. Pastures near Chico, TX, northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, were inundated by Friday, May 9, after multiple days of heavy rain. Image credit: wunduerphotographer Madermade.

A challenging severe weather forecast
The upper low that's driven the persistent storminess is finally on the move, pushing into the western Plains. Upper winds will be much stronger later today, raising the potential for a few significant tornadoes if the atmosphere manages to recover, but that’s a big “if.” With little in the way of a warm layer at midlevels to inhibit thunderstorm development until peak afternoon heating, a sprawling area of heavy showers and thunderstorms developed overnight from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas and northeast Colorado. These storms are cooling and dampening a wide part of the region that would otherwise be at risk of late-day supercells. In its 1:00 am CDT Saturday outlook, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center called it "another messy/complex forecast." The 1:00 am outlook had placed southwest Kansas under a moderate risk of severe weather, but the 8:00 am CDT update eliminated that area, leaving an enhanced risk from eastern Colorado to north Texas. Behind this area, some afternoon warming may still occur, with redevelopment possible along a dry line/cold front. Further north, instability will be marginal but wind shear very favorable for relatively small rotating storms near the surface low and warm front pushing north across western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Toward the south, another large complex of storms may emerge by Saturday night, again heading toward the hard-hit region from the Dallas-Fort Worth area to the Red River. Heavy precipitation is also walloping northeast Colorado, where flash flooding is considered likely on Saturday afternoon and evening by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Heavy snow will envelop the mountains and higher foothills of northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming, as well as the Black Hills of South Dakota, with winter storm warnings covering much of this region. Even the Denver-Boulder area could see several wet inches of snow overnight Saturday night.

Severe weather on Sunday will expand into a larger swath of the central United States, from Iowa to Texas, although the areas of peak intensity and coverage will again depend largely on how storms evolve through Saturday night and Sunday morning. Any substantial tornado threat would most likely be centered in Iowa. Severe storms will again be widespread on Monday toward the Mississippi Valley, but that should be the last day of this prolonged, complex episode, as the upper low lifts out and wind shear relaxes.


Figure 5. More than a foot of snow is possible across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent Black Hills from Saturday to Sunday morning. Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center..

Wunderground will be running a live blog Saturday afternoon from our main page to track the severe weather.

Jeff Masters (tropical) and Bob Henson (severe)
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Hurricane Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks
429. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on May 09, 2015

what is the second picture of?
didn't know that noaa had a hurricane hunter plane i think i thought it was all air force. so when does noaa use theirs? cause isn't the air force one used for all info that comes in about the storm?
Maybe the best Ana has looked since formation.

Quoting 5. Tropicsweatherpr:

Maybe the best Ana has looked since formation.




Center still seems to be partially exposed
from last blog

Quoting 434. nrtiwlnvragn:

From Monthly Ocean Briefing, shows subsurface not as strong this year as 97.





Thank you!!!

Quoting 438. Tropicsweatherpr:



Maybe the best Ana has looked since formation.

agreed
Quoting 6. Hurricanes101:



Center still seems to be partially exposed


according to the latest Hi-res vis imagery
the LLCOC in under that ball of convection
Quoting 8. wunderkidcayman:



according to the latest Hi-res vis imagery
the LLCOC in under that ball of convection


It is heading that way for sure. I do agree this is the best Ana has looked in her lifetime. I hope anyone who felt this did not deserve a name has changed their minds lol
it also appears that either Ana is moving very very very slowly W or is Stationary with slight meandering
Quoting 9. Hurricanes101:



It is heading that way for sure. I do agree this is the best Ana has looked in her lifetime. I hope anyone who felt this did not deserve a name has changed their minds lol


all we need now is a TS Elsa lol
Quoting 4. WaterWitch11:

didn't know that noaa had a hurricane hunter plane i think i thought it was all air force. so when does noaa use theirs? cause isn't the air force one used for all info that comes in about the storm?


NOAA's
Hurricane Research Aircraft
Quoting 6. Hurricanes101:



Center still seems to be partially exposed


True, but at least it looks like a tropical storm now.
Awesome blog. Thank you for it. Those upper lows mean business this time of year. Interesting times ahead.
Quoting 4. WaterWitch11:

didn't know that noaa had a hurricane hunter plane i think i thought it was all air force. so when does noaa use theirs? cause isn't the air force one used for all info that comes in about the storm?


The NOAA Hurricane Hunters fly out of McDill in Florida. NOAA Hurricane Hunters

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters fly out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Miss. 53 rd WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON "HURRICANE HUNTERS"
Quoting 11. wunderkidcayman:



all we need now is a TS Elsa lol


Elsa was a tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere in 1976.
wild May this year violent twisters early Tropical storms ... crazy
Crazy weather in colorado. I am currently under a flood warning, a flash flood watch and a winter storm watch. Several local road are closed and the St. Vrain is out of its banks and appears to have washed out some levies and is flooding surrounding ponds at hwy 119. They evacuated the state park across the street last night due to rising river levels. Hopefully the rain lets up some this afternoon and/or switches to snow. If we get the 5 to 10 inches they are saying is possible that is at least an inch of liquid that won't go strait into the river.

The river is around 3,500 CFS. I think that's a ten year flood and a record for the day but no where near the 35,000 recorded during the fall 2013 flood which was a 500 to 1,000 year flood. I am leaning towards skipping driving an hour to the in-laws for Mother's Day dinner this afternoon to monitor the situation. We will see what the wife thinks of that plan
NAM has South Carolina getting the most wind..

I have never seen this much rain forecast by the GFS or any other model...Reminds me of 1993, but further west..

I just wanted to compliment the more frequent blog updates by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, thank you! The only bad side-effect is that it tends to breakup ongoing conversations in the comments, but that is a good trade-off for getting the expert opinions more often.

KCOF is still showing light offshore winds and buoy Station 41009 is showing swell height 4.3 ft and
swell period at 10.0 s, even though it is afternoon it would be a waste not to hit the beach today: I'm off!
Quoting 15. Patrap:



The NOAA Hurricane Hunters fly out of McDill in Florida. NOAA Hurricane Hunters

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters fly out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Miss. 53 rd WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON "HURRICANE HUNTERS"

They have some work to do.. I cant help but wonder what other home grown entities we will have this year...Western Atlantic has another MDR.?
Quoting 11. wunderkidcayman:



all we need now is a TS Elsa lol


Would you just let it go, already?

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 · 2 hrs2 hours ago

FWIW, the CFS shows a late May WWB (dark red) approaching May 1997-- hence the historic #elnino forecast I think
Quoting 23. JazzChi:



Would you just let it go, already?


lol
From CIMMS..

Does anyone know the analog years for this hurricane season?
As Subtropical Storm Ana churns off the southeast U.S. coast, the global atmosphere has exceeded 400 ppm carbon dioxide content for the first time in…well…who knows?

And also on tap for this month (May 25th, Memorial Day) is another milestone: 3,500 days since the last time a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) struck the U.S., which was Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Link

Let's hope for another 3500 days....
No dice.
Although pressures were lower and the overall wind field was stronger last night, this is the best Ana has looked from a satellite standpoint.

Quoting 27. SELAliveforthetropic:

Does anyone know the analog years for this hurricane season?
1934, 1958, 1968, 1969, 1979 and 1995...1995 was a interesting pick.
Quoting 27. SELAliveforthetropic:

Does anyone know the analog years for this hurricane season?

Asking different people will yield different results. The best analogs based on April Atlantic SSTs are 2014 (8 named storms-6 hurricanes-2 major hurricanes), 1982 (6-2-1), 1957 (8-3-2), 1991 (8-4-2), and 1972 (7-3-0).

Average: 7-4-1
Meanwhile in the WPac, Typhoon Noul continues to rapidly intensify as it approaches Luzon. It may be making a run for Cat. 5 intensity.
Quoting 30. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Although pressures were lower and the overall wind field was stronger last night, this is the best Ana has looked from a satellite standpoint.




I bet if recon was flying right now they would find a stronger storm
if fact they might even find the storm stronger than last nights recon

Quoting 28. yoboi:
the global atmosphere has exceeded 400 ppm carbon dioxide content for the first time in…well…who knows?

And also on tap for this month (May 25th, Memorial Day) is another milestone: 3,500 days since the last time a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) struck the U.S.

That would be in the Miocene, 10-15 my ago.
Since for some strange reason we're counting in days, that's at least 4,000,000,000 days ago.
Or did you have a point you were trying to make?
Quoting 33. Ameister12:

Meanwhile in the WPac, Typhoon Noul continues to rapidly intensify as it approaches Luzon. It may be making a run for Cat. 5 intensity.

It looks like it could be one right now, deep convection all around the center, not lacking in any part of it
Officially 10.7" so far this month in Oklahoma City and a large batch of heavy rain is moving into the area.
ok rainbands developing on the NW N and NE and E sides

convection over the LLCOC is growing high and even appears to show a developing eye like feature
this heavy convection around this eye like feature is also showing up on NC radar



Link

anyway im out be back in about 1/2 hr or so

Quoting 41. Sfloridacat5:

Officially 10.7" so far this month in Oklahoma City and a large batch of heavy rain is moving into the area.



July 1996 is the wettest month in their record book - 15.4". Still two thirds of May to go.
Still looks frail with a partially exposed circulation although the aerial coverage of the convection has expanded since last night.

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN · 3m 3 minutes ago
Watching this supercell near Bray, OK for tornado potential @breakingweather @TVNweather
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms that may be capable of producing heavy rain.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon and continue into this evening. Heavy downpours are expected with these thunderstorms with rainfall amounts near 30 mm. The main concern is for regions that receive more than one thunderstorm, where rainfall amounts could exceed 50 mm in a short period of time.

Hail and strong wind gusts are also possible. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.ontario.ca/beprepared.
Given the appearance of a mid-level eye-like feature, persistent deep convection, and radar velocities of 60-65kt, I wouldn't be surprised if Ana has intensified slightly since this morning. The next recon plane departs in just over 2 hours to assess the intensity.
so what is the earliest hurricane before the season before
Quoting 40. Articuno:

It looks like it could be one right now, deep convection all around the center, not lacking in any part of it
Annular?
Wow
Quoting 45. Drakoen:

Still looks frail with a partially exposed circulation although the aerial coverage of the convection has expanded since last night.


With the dry air it looks like and eye.
Quoting 52. Gearsts:

Wow



I think is 155 mph...when the grey ring appear completely around the eye should be 160 mph.
Thanks doks.
GIANT extratropical cyclone in the South Atlantic!!!
Focusing in on the mid-level circulation and associated convection (the low level circulation is still displaced southwest):

So, Ana is looking her best right now.

I think Ana is at 65mph. She may be making a run at Hurricane status.
Quoting 58. 62901IL:

So, Ana is looking her best right now.

I think Ana is at 65mph. She may be making a run at Hurricane status.
I'm thinking the same thing.
01L/TS/A/CX
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (1507)
3:00 AM JST May 10 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (1002 hPa) located at 6.3N 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 8.0N 159.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 9.4N 158.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
72 HRS: 10.2N 155.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
3:00 AM JST May 10 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Noul (930 hPa) located at 16.1N 123.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 19.1N 121.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
48 HRS: 23.3N 124.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 29.1N 133.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
It's very humid in interior Carolina today, just got to High Point. Around 80 degrees and the humidity has to be well over 80 percent.

Ana looks pretty good, if the pressure is dipping and has some more time over the GS maybe some thunderstorms can begin to wrap around the southwestern quarter. The core isn't too far from the coast, I'd be interested to see what dats the Frying Pan Shoals tower records over the next 24 hours.
some of the members are trending up with rain estimates for NCEP SREF Plume viewer

9z run



15z Run
The SPC has upgraded portions of northern Texas to a Moderate risk, introducing 15% hatched tornado probabilities right over the DFW metroplex.

Quoting 51. Gearsts:

Annular?

Not quite...
e pac has dried out
GOES EAST...From NOAA...

Quoting 54. pablosyn:



I think is 155 mph...when the grey ring appear completely around the eye should be 160 mph.
This is going to be close. If my memory is correct, the eastern region is sparsly populated. Regardless, anyone in the path of noul will be in a life threatening situation...I hope they have left the area.
Quoting 65. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The SPC has upgraded portions of northern Texas to a Moderate risk, introducing 15% hatched tornado probabilities right over the DFW metroplex.




Yeah, a new batch of storms just started firing along the dry line in Texas. These could quickly become tornado producers.
Quoting 65. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The SPC has upgraded portions of northern Texas to a Moderate risk, introducing 15% hatched tornado probabilities right over the DFW metroplex.

Looks like today might not be a complete bust after all. The area looks pretty much prime.

Might need a higher end watch in the next few hours for the DFW area if things end up getting really ugly.
Holy Moly

Quoting 66. Ameister12:


Not quite...



The eye has compressed a bit it appears on the IR loops with more convection around it, Noul's max windspeeds likely have increased some.
6 hour summary and analysis.
Super Typhoon (STY) 06w (noul), located approximately 185 nm east-
northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northwestward at 10
knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery depicts a deepening symmetric core structure that has
maintained a sharp well-defined 20-nm eye which supports the initial
position with high confidence. The initial intensity has been
increased to 130 knots based on an overall assessment of Dvorak
intensity estimates from all reporting agencies and improved
structure. Upper-level analysis indicates radial outflow with low
vertical wind shear (vws) which, combined with sea surface
temperatures (sst) above 30 celsius, is creating a favorable
environment for the current intensification. Sty noul is tracking
along the southwestern periphery of a deep layered sub-tropical
ridge (str) to the northeast.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from
the previous prognostic reasoning message.
B. Over the next 06 to 12 hours, favorable environmental
conditions are expected to persist allowing noul to intensify
leading to a peak intensity of 140 knots as it tracks off the
northeastern tip of Luzon
. An approaching mid-latitude trough will
weaken the steering str, causing the system to turn poleward by tau
12. As sty 06w tracks poleward and rounds the str axis, the combined
effects of increasing vws and decreasing SST will erode the
convective structure and begin a steady weakening trend. Beyond tau
48, sty noul will transition to a northeastward trajectory and begin
to interact with the mid-latitude westerlies.
Ana..

We should (edit - Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been isssued) see Warnings for these storms soon. They are rapidly developing to the west of Dallas.
It's been a little complicated.

Quoting 52. Gearsts:

Wow



A strengthening tropical cyclone at landfall - potentially a category 5 at that - is horrid! Going to be a big rainmaker.

To think we're only in May. Makes you wonder what the typhoons are going to be like come July-September when things really heat up. Wouldn't be surprised if we get many Category 5 systems in the Western Pacific this year - especially given the onset of El Nino.
Quoting 75. hydrus:

Holy Moly




Yea we're looking at a probable 5 now.
Could be a brief coastal spin-up near the SC/NC border this afternoon/evening.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015/

...CSTL CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS OTLK IN THIS REGION. AREA VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL...HOWEVER REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH T.S. ANA CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE WARM-CORE IN NATURE...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ON NW EDGE OF THE T.S. CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO OVER THE NC AND NRN SC CSTL PLN.


Sfc-3 km SRH


Sfc-1 km SRH


SB CAPE

That storm just east of Abilene is starting to produce a hook.
Very impressive supercell in eastern Colorado:

Quoting 86. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Very impressive supercell in eastern Colorado:


Looks tornadic.
Quoting 82. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yea we're looking at a probable 5 now.
It has already been classified as a Super Typhoon.
Quoting 74. Patrap:




If Ana can maintain herself before moving out of better development conditions and makes landfall at or just north of the NC/SC border the Frying Pan tower will get some decent data. The effects of beach erosion will probably be greatest on the SC side of the Little River and Shallotte Inlet (between Holden and Ocean Isle beaches); there are no jetties on Shallotte Inlet (yet) which might be a good thing for OI and Sunset. Likely will see an increase of water and sediment on Smith and Middle Islands of Bald Head Island as well, luckily the palmetto forest won't mind a little more sand and salt.
Quoting 86. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Very impressive supercell in eastern Colorado:




Good thing eastern Colorado is sparsely populated. The famous Campo tornado from a few years back went through a couple ranches but that was about it. One of the more spectacular looking ones I've seen on film.

Quoting 88. hydrus:

It has already been classified as a Super Typhoon.


Yes you are right, I couldn't remember if Super Typhoon was an exact equivalent of a Cat-5 or not.
Envoirment


A strengthening tropical cyclone at landfall - potentially a category 5 at that - is horrid! Going to be a big rainmaker.

To think we're only in May. Makes you wonder what the typhoons are going to be like come July-September when things really heat up. Wouldn't be surprised if we get many Category 5 systems in the Western Pacific this year - especially given the onset of El Nino.



Already had 1 category five this season in the Western Pacific..
Typhoon Maysak "201504" near Yap State on 31Mar 2015
Dry line snaking its way across western Texas. Nice tops on the newly formed storms west of Dallas.
The environment across northern Texas is primed for supercells capable of long-tracked, strong tornadoes.

Looking pretty juicy.
We shall see in late MayLink
The southern cell is turning into a classic supercell (Butterfly wings).
Should be tornado warned real soon.
Chasers "90mph of shear" on that cell. Could have a tornado on the ground. (no tornado warning yet though)
Quoting 86. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Very impressive supercell in eastern Colorado:



Any chasers on that?
Quoting 9. Hurricanes101:



It is heading that way for sure. I do agree this is the best Ana has looked in her lifetime. I hope anyone who felt this did not deserve a name has changed their minds lol


Mind officially changed. Now as for Noul, that is just downright scary.
Quoting 90. win1gamegiantsplease:



Good thing eastern Colorado is sparsely populated. The famous Campo tornado from a few years back went through a couple ranches but that was about it. One of the more spectacular looking ones I've seen on film.



Yes you are right, I couldn't remember if Super Typhoon was an exact equivalent of a Cat-5 or not.
150 mph for Super Typhoon....156 mph for cat-5...I think...:)
Tornado should be imminent.

Tornado Warning on the cell by Cisco Tx.
Tornado has been reported with the cell by Cisco.
"Debris ball" on radar.
Quoting 99. hydrus:

150 mph for Super Typhoon....156 mph for cat-5...I think...:)


You're right about the Super Typhoon and thanks for correcting me, and you used to be right about the other (at least this I know)...prior to the 2013 season the SS scale was changed by broadening the Category 4 hurricane range by one knot so it's now 130-156 mph instead of 131-155 mph, or these ranges divided by 1.15 for knots.
Debris ball:

Edit: Whoops, double submission.
"

Can't wait till some streams get on it.
Almost certainly a violent tornado on the ground with that cell near Eastland.
Climate patterns in Cuba and the southeastern United States during May and June. For more information see GeoMet, on the following Link
Quoting 109. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Chaser video


Nice video, hopefully no farms or towns get in its way.
Climate patterns in Cuba and the southeastern United States during May and June. For more information see GeoMet, on the following Link
Storm Chase Media has the Cisco tornado on their feed.

And now its freezing up!!!!
StormChaserMedia has a visual TOG on their stream
Stormchasemedia has the tornado in sight on the stream, large cone tornado.

Edit: Well I guess I was slow
I think we all are stewards of Gods green Earth and the reports I'm reading about fracking and waste water being dumped into the ground through high pressure machines are remarkably bad and terribly irresponsible. Not only do they set off countless amount of Earthquakes but they contaminate groundwater. Yes the water we drink, bathe, etc. In short the water we use on a daily basis. I am not in a fracking zone YET in South Florida, but I feel for the citizens who are in this area. Please share with me any information about this, I am about to write my congressman. Direct contact or email me
A debris ball and strong rotation continues. The wedge tornado is headed toward Mangum, which is a ghost town.

Later on today the storm will possibly be a problem for the Ft.Worth/Dallas area.

There going out to Ana before landfall.
Recon on its way, left from Biloxi it appears
Thank you, Dr.Masters.
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A debris ball and strong rotation continues. The wedge tornado is headed toward Mangum, which is a ghost town.




cycling now.
Quoting 119. Patrap:


Is it me or is an eye forming? :/
Base Radio Velocity


Eye feature showing up nicely on Wilmington radar. Something of a southerly drift happening, too.
Link

Station 41013
NDBC
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Date: Sat, 09 May 2015 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 40.8 kt gusting to 48.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 15.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (172°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.74 in and falling
Air Temperature: 71.8 F
Dew Point: 71.4 F
Water Temperature: 76.3 F


Typhoon Noul


StormViewlive has a tornado on their feed in Colorado. Edit -It just roped out, but it's still trying.
Time for those in the Warned areas to complete ones prep as the storm approaches.

Expect Power outages near those landfalling feeder squalls and keep a NOAA weather radio with Battery Back up.

Quoting 86. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Very impressive supercell in eastern Colorado:




Snow and Supercells
Here's the good news: if the JTWC forecast holds, Noul should only clip the northernmost areas of the Philippines before turning away. Also important to note that this area of the country is largely mountainous and unpopulated.


As for Ana - could it be that the rounded shape of the Carolina coast between Cape Romain and Cape Fear is actually helping the storm to organize?
The slightest shift west would make a big difference.

Velocities on radar are up to 65-75kt at an elevation of ~4200ft. We'll see what recon says, but I wouldn't be surprised at a 55-60kt tropical storm.
Storm by Eastland is just about ready to drop another one. Inflow notch on radar.
Quoting 132. Patrap:

Typhoon Noul





What is it's forward velocity?
Quoting 132. Patrap:

Typhoon Noul



One mean lookin Typhoon.
Dry Air is no longer reaching Ana's Core.

20150509 | 2032 | W-PAC | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 16.6 | -123.6 | 898 | 140 | 06W | NOUL



Link
Quoting 140. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Velocities on radar are up to 65-75kt at an elevation of ~4200ft. We'll see what recon says, but I wouldn't be surprised at a 55-60kt tropical storm.



I'm out and about, you got a quick link for the recon? May or may not work well, mi teléfone no les gusta NHC ni SPC.
Well after Bertha was considered a hurricane last year I would have thought people would stop going off Satellite based appearances.
Quoting 147. Patrap:

Holden beach Cam with audio


Winds are picking up compared to earlier today as Ana's main core is starting to reach the coastline.
HurricaneTrack's Mark Sudduth is testing out his Surge Cam live on the Beach (Not sure of the exact location), Surge is starting to pick up:

Here is the Link:

Bookmark it

Link
153. N3EG
Quoting 130. hydrus:



The Philippines sure have been getting a lot of annular hurricanes in the last few years...
Quoting 149. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm out and about, you got a quick link for the recon? May or may not work well, mi teléfone no les gusta NHC ni SPC.

They won't be in the storm for a while yet.

Link
Looks like a multi-vortex tornado along the Texas/Oklahoma border.

157. txjac
Storm chasers ...

Doug Drace ...amazing wall cloud

Link
Quoting 148. FIUStormChaser:



She's definitely strengthening. Blocking off that dry air right now.
Quoting 153. N3EG:


The Philippines sure have been getting a lot of annular hurricanes in the last few years...
The Philippines have been getting nail with monster typhoons for millennia. Not to mention that the region is prone to strong earthquakes and volcanic activity. It is one of the most dangerous places on Earth to live.
The most impressive flood I've ever seen in Havana. More details in my page with the following
Link
Quoting 155. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They won't be in the storm for a while yet.

Link


Correct just wanted to have a quick access, won't be at a laptop for a while.
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h 1 hour ago
Tropical Storm #Ana is really outperforming for early May. Another few weeks & warmer water, it'd easily be a hurricane.
Ana is quite an impressive storm for May
Quoting 162. ncstorm:

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h 1 hour ago
Tropical Storm #Ana is really outperforming for early May. Another few weeks & warmer water, it'd easily be a hurricane.


Easily. Looks warm core to me. Never seen a sub-tropical with outflow like that.
Looks to me as if Ana has it's center fully covered in convection, it's very organized for an ex-subtropical storm turned tropical. Wouldn't surprise me if it got to hurricane status before landfall.
Quoting 165. Seastep:



Easily. Looks warm core to me. Never seen a sub-tropical with outflow like that.
it is a tropical storm. :)
Ana is certainly impressive! Will be interesting to see what Recon find, they're almost at Ana now.


On shore soon enough
Tornado live on TWC.
Quoting 134. Patrap:

Time for those in the Warned areas to complete ones prep as the storm approaches.

Expect Power outages near those landfalling feeder squalls and keep a NOAA weather radio with Battery Back up.




Was hoping for some rain here in Florence, but it's looking like I'm a bit too far west. Ana would have to push straight toward me and she looks to be sliding more northwest.
Quoting 167. HurricaneAndre:

it is a tropical storm. :)


LOL. Thanks. Late to the party.
Quoting 143. win1gamegiantsplease:



What is it's forward velocity?
N.W. @ 11 mph.
had to post the image..

I thought it was real cool to see a rainbow during a tropical storm..

I see Ana is approaching my doorstep.

Turned out to be a beautiful day here in Wilmington. Lot of yard work got done, went to the beach etc..
As of 23:43 UTC May 09, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 32.60°N 78.52°W
Bearing: 63° at 235 kt
Altitude: 1520 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 41 kt at 312°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.1 mb


She's trying! Trying to get stacked?
179. beell
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:




HH's are arriving none too soon to catch Ana at max intensity?
I went for a quick swim I come back and see Ana now has an eye
Quoting 179. beell:



HH's are arriving none too soon to catch Ana at max intensity?


Is that an eye?
184. beell
Eye? Maybe not.
Poked in the eye.

Hey NCstorm. Thanks for posting that. We just walked outside and saw it from our front yard!
Quoting 181. Seastep:






Eye see you, Ana.
Typhoon Noul just exploded in the cauldron that is the West Pacific. The Atlantic SSTs are like an icebox compared to the Pacific. perhaps due to the fact the AMO is switching to a negative or colder phase, and the Pacific is switching to a Positve or warmer phase with the onset of this potentially Strong El Nino. Tropical Storm Ana is looking more impressive though due to the Gulf Stream
I guess i'll have to be to one to stick their neck out and say i'm not convinced that Ana is anything more than a 60 mph TS. Maybe 65mph. HH will clear things up shortly.

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

Ana continues to maintain deep convection near and east of the
center, although the convection is rather ragged-looking. There is
weak upper-level outflow over the southern portion of the
circulation. The current intensity is held at 50 kt, in agreement
with data from an ASCAT overpass from several hours ago. Since the
storm will be moving over progressively cooler waters as it departs
the Gulf Stream, and is being influenced by northwesterly shear and
some dry air, gradual weakening is forecast until landfall. After
Ana crosses the coast, the weakening will of course be more rapid.
The official intensity forecast is again close to IVCN, the
intensity model consensus. Global model guidance indicates that
Ana or its post-tropical remnant will become absorbed by, or merge
with, a large extratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada within 72
hours.

The center is a little difficult to locate, but my best estimate of
the initial motion is 320/3. The track forecast philosophy
continues unchanged. The persistent mid-tropospheric blocking
ridge to the north of Ana is predicted by the global models to
shift eastward and weaken during the next day or so. The models
also depict a broad trough moving eastward from the central to the
eastern U.S. over the next 2-3 days. This evolution of the
steering currents should cause Ana to turn northward and
northeastward. The official track forecast is similar to the
dynamical model consensus, IVCN, but leans a little more toward the
latest ECMWF solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 32.9N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 33.4N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 34.2N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 35.2N 78.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 36.7N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to south of South Santee
River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should
monitor the progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.2 West. Ana is moving
toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ana
is expected to reach the coast of northeastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina late tonight or early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin overnight as Ana moves over
cooler waters close to the coastline. A more rapid rate of
weakening should begin after the center moves inland.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41013, located about 35 miles (55 km)
south-southeast of Cape Fear North Carolina, reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) within the
past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area by later this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern
portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kimberlain
RECON REPORTING
FLYING INTO SUSPECTED EYE LIKE FEATURE
Here is what our local Meteorologists in Columbia, South Carolina said about Ana: "Some weakening of the system is expected as it approaches the coast due to the cooler shelf water near shore. It will continue to weaken onshore and should become extratropical on Monday before moving out into the North Atlantic."

Being honest, it looks like Ana is strengthening. Looking at the radar, the south side of the center is filling in and it is "walling off" the dry air.
Will be interesting to see what recon finds...
194. yoboi

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to south of South Santee
River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should
monitor the progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.2 West. Ana is moving
toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ana
is expected to reach the coast of northeastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina late tonight or early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin overnight as Ana moves over
cooler waters close to the coastline. A more rapid rate of
weakening should begin after the center moves inland.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41013, located about 35 miles (55 km)
south-southeast of Cape Fear North Carolina, reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) within the
past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area by later this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern
portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kimberlain
Did the 8pm advisory come out yet?

Quoting 192. wunderkidcayman:

RECON REPORTING
FLYING INTO SUSPECTED EYE LIKE FEATURE


A strong tropical storm hitting the Carolinas in May is a pretty strong way to start the Atlantic hurricane season. If the east pac somehow manages to stay rather quiet, the atlantic could be more active than previously thought. all depends on where the el nino gets the strongest. If it's in the 4 region, expect a very active typhoon season and maybe an average atlantic season but if it's east centered, think 2009 or 1997.


Looks like an eye forming to me rather than a dry spot
Have not seen a report from recon in awhile
Eye like feature becoming more pronounced on satellite imagery.
Definitely looking like an eye wall feature is starting to form now.
Intensifying tropical storm hitting land not good!
Could just be a dry spot though. No indication yet of it actually being a developing eye.
Quoting 205. stormpetrol:

Intensifying tropical storm hitting land not good!


It is not intensifying that much. I want to see what recon finds before even claiming it is an eye forming
claudette in 03 hit texas as an intensifying hurricane. damage more severe when a storm is stregnthening prior to landfall.
209. beell
Remember when we were laughing at the NAM a few days ago? Looks like it wasn't to far behind actual reality..
Quoting 197. FIUStormChaser:




If this was August...or even if the gulf stream extended all the way to the shore...
Super typhoon 06w (noul), located approximately 185 nm east-
northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northwestward at 10
knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at
091800z is 45 feet.


recon must be having reporting problems
Quoting 205. stormpetrol:

Intensifying tropical storm hitting land not good!

Nothing unusual for our area. We'll survive. :)
Quoting 200. Stormchaser2007:




Last report from Recon was 31 minutes ago...
WWAY NEWS

An eerie sunset over downtown #ilm.

219. beell
Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nothing unusual for our area. We'll survive. :)
Famous last words.
Quoting 215. FIUStormChaser:



Last report from Recon was 31 minutes ago...


Hopefully just issues with reporting data
Really?...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* until 845 PM EDT

* at 810 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm
was located near Loxahatchee NWR... or near Wellington... and moving
northeast at 15 mph. Nickel size hail may also accompany the
damaging winds.

* Locations impacted include...
Wellington... Greenacres... Loxahatchee NWR... lake Belvedere Estates
and Golden Lakes.
Quoting 210. washingtonian115:

Remember when we were laughing at the NAM a few days ago? Looks like it wasn't to far behind actual reality..
Hahahaha most in the blog only follow the Gfs and Euro the others are not taken in consideration, which is bad because the Nam for example can sometimes win some storms.
Last fix and obs...

This certainly looks like an eye

Recon not working during landfalling tropical cyclone not goid. I just emailed the NHC though.
Quoting 228. HurricaneAndre:

Recon not working during landfalling tropical cyclone not good. I just emailed the NHC though.


In all honesty, if the instruments on the plane are not functioning, they should just send another flight out.
Composite Reflectivity



Quoting 220. hydrus:

Wow~ Capture the last frame quick on your loop and you see a real human-looking eye!
Quoting 229. FIUStormChaser:



In all honesty, if the instruments on the plane are not functioning, they should just send another flight out.
the second plane would be too late.
Quoting 227. wunderkidcayman:

This certainly looks like an eye



I SEE YOOOUUUUU
Something not right with Recon
Chaser Chad Vandever might be in serious trouble. Heard screaming then the stream was cutoff.
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:

Chaser Chad Vandever might be in serious trouble. Heard screaming then the stream was cutoff.


Where was he at the time?

Quoting 234. stormpetrol:

Something not right with Recon


Not good

That Nwestern Squall feeder has Echo tops to 69,000 ft

Quoting 237. Hurricanes101:



Where was he at the time?




Directly under the tornado warned cell near Durant, Texas.

It was getting REALLY bad right before the stream cut off.

EDIT -- he's alive. Truck is destroyed.
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:

Chaser Chad Vandever might be in serious trouble. Heard screaming then the stream was cutoff.


Still no comm from that feed.
Quoting 240. CybrTeddy:



Directly under the tornado warned cell near Durant, Texas.


Thats a bad way to fly.

Hopefully, they survived.
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:
Chaser Chad Vandever might be in serious trouble. Heard screaming then the stream was cutoff.


Yeah screaming then silent on his cam.
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:

Chaser Chad Vandever might be in serious trouble. Heard screaming then the stream was cutoff.


I heard that as well.. Sounded real bad.
A RECON PING at 23:53

A ping message

VALIDATED

United States Air Force
Miss.
#06
Ana (01L) - AF308
High Density (5), Recco (71)
Geopotential Height: 1,520 meters (4,987 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 843.4 mb
Location: 87 statue miles (139 km) to the E (99°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Info:
This aircraft appears to be having transmission problems at times.
Anyway looking ahead for next system Bill GFS forecast and ensemble are showing it forming in the SW Caribbean and it's moving up in timeline now starts out at 210hrs much different than the 300+ hrs that it had shown before

Keep in mind that with early season development that is one of the main areas to look for development
Quoting 241. Patrap:



Still no comm from that feed.
After what happened to Samaras and others, I would never chase a multi vortex tornado. Those are beyond extremely dangerous. I truly hope he is ok.
Recon is working again.
Per Chad: "We were escaping a tornado that was rain wrapped and a large tree branch busted in my windshield and my truck is destroyed but we are okay"
253. beell
That is a very large meso


Recon transmitting data..5 by 5

0:43:00Z 34.267N 77.183W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,607 meters
(~ 5,272 feet) 1018.0 mb
(~ 30.06 inHg) - From 134° at 44 knots
(From the SE at ~ 50.6 mph) 12.5°C
(~ 54.5°F) -4.7°C
(~ 23.5°F) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 22.0 knots (~ 25.3 mph)

50.0%
At 00:33:30Z (first observation), the observation was 33 statue miles (53 km) to the SSW (210°) from Morehead City, NC, USA.
At 00:43:00Z (last observation), the observation was 40 statue miles (65 km) to the SW (218°) from Morehead City, NC, USA.
Quoting 239. Patrap:

That Nwestern Squall feeder has Echo tops to 69,000 ft


Suckin up that warm Gulf Stream water..Interesting system..I always said dont trust anything in the gulf or over the stream..Things spin up way fast.
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:

Chaser Chad Vandever might be in serious trouble. Heard screaming then the stream was cutoff.


He just posted on his FB page that he is ok!
Quoting 248. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway looking ahead for next system Bill GFS forecast and ensemble are showing it forming in the SW Caribbean and it's moving up in timeline now starts out at 210hrs much different than the 300 hrs that it had shown before

Keep in mind that with early season development that is one of the main areas to look for development


Also keep in mind that the GFS has been showing that storm for years every season. :) If it gets in the 5 day range then it'll have some weight to it. Would be interesting to have another pre-season storm though.
A lot going on Tornadoes a near Hurricane and a possible Historic El-Nino on the way

From JB

SOI Thunder from Down Under

so we get one that gets almost to the Philippines then recurves, the other recurving east. These are huge events.. They signal this enso means business , the crash of the SOI and its going to be as strong as you see it in May the next 5 days or so, and that the pattern that is bringing warmth in May is likely to change after the next warm spell shows up following the cool down coming.. I would look for June to be cool where May will wind up cool, but also over the lakes and northeast where May is not going to wind up cool

Disturbance in the Force? Cattle Prod to the Atmosphere? You take your pick but its a big deal
RECON REPORTING
DELAY DUE TO TRANSMISSION ERROR
EYE LIKE FEATURE IS 95% CONFIRMED TO BE THE EYE
STRONG WINDS NE QUADRANT
Sad to hear one person dead in Cisco, TX from storms!
Im purty sure dat 403.26 ppm CO2 has a factor in the Global Whiplash weather.




Quoting 255. hydrus:

Suckin up that warm Gulf Stream water..Interesting system..I always said dont trust anything in the gulf or over the stream..Things spin up way fast.


Nope, some explode like Hugo, some maintain like Fran, some weaken like Irene (she dried up). You just never know.
RECON REPORTING
ADDTIONAL REMARKS: SPIRAL BANDING NOTED
Quoting 239. Patrap:

That Nwestern Squall feeder has Echo tops to 69,000 ft

69,000 feet? You sure about that one captain? There's nothing over 40k.

You don't even see that in the Plains during the peak of tornado season, let alone a weak quasi-tropical storm

Echo Tops

Quoting 268. Stormchaser2007:

69,000 feet? You sure about that one captain?

You don't even see that in the Plains during the peak of tornado season, let alone a weak quasi-tropical storm


I remember 72,000 feet in the 70,s somewhere out in the plains..
272. IDTH
Ana getting an eye. Literally did not expect this at all.
Quoting 270. hydrus:

I remember 72,000 feet in the 70,s somewhere out in the plains..


Happens maybe once every few years, but you're basically breaking the troposphere at that point.
Quoting 242. Patrap:



Thats a bad way to fly.

Hopefully, they survived.


He prodded the bear's cage with a stick, shouldn't have done that.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.5mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -39.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 32:39:00 N Lon: 78:13:12 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1018mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.6 degrees


01:03:00Z 33.883N 78.083W 842.8 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,570 meters
(~ 5,151 feet) 1013.1 mb
(~ 29.92 inHg) - From 101° at 55 knots
(From the E/ESE at ~ 63.3 mph) 12.6°C
(~ 54.7°F) -0.5°C

(~ 31.1°F) 56 knots

(~ 64.4 mph) - - - -

At 00:53:30Z (first observation), the observation was 25 statue miles (40 km) to the ESE (102°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
At 01:03:00Z (last observation), the observation was 25 statue miles (41 km) to the SSW (203°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
Note the torquing and inner core cycling as she nears the coast..



Quoting 267. help4u:

Nothing new under the sun.


What do you think the chance is that that could be out-of-date now, as there have been literally 1000's of new things since that was first written 1000's of years ago? It only takes one new thing to prove that that is now false.
Also looking pretty nasty right now in Holden Beach.
Ana making a run to maybe Lower Her internal pressure and become a Hurricane,

Very reminiscent of Cindy 2005, my join date here.
Quoting 262. Patrap:

Im purty sure dat 403.26 ppm CO2 has a factor in the Global Whiplash weather.







We are traveling in a new part of reality.
The feedback loops are robust.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (1507)
9:00 AM JST May 10 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (1002 hPa) located at 6.1N 160.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 8.4N 159.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 9.5N 157.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
72 HRS: 10.1N 153.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Truk (Chuuk) waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
9:00 AM JST May 10 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Noul (915 hPa) located at 17.0N 123.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 20.2N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
48 HRS: 25.0N 126.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) southwest of Naha, Okinawa
72 HRS: 32.1N 136.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
Welcome to the Anthropocene.
bye bye.
I just don't know if she got enough time...




CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 922.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.9

Link


;
Typhoon Noul


Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

NWS Wilmington NC

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...SHOWERS FROM SPIRAL BANDS AROUND ANA HAVE
BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE CWA LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT PRIMARY
RAIN SHIELD HAS SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK. ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES AS ESTIMATED BY
RADAR IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF
INCH PER HOUR...WITH A BULLSEYE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR OFFSHORE. DUE
TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF ANA...AS THIS RAIN SHIELD SPREADS
INLAND...PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. COMPLICATING FACTORS IN FORECASTING RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND WHAT SEEMS TO
BE SLIGHT RADAR UNDERESTIMATION OF RAINFALL ESTIMATES. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES A GENERAL 2-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...TAPERING TO ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE PEE DEE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS COLUMBUS COUNTY...BUT THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. RAINFALL TOTALS
ALSO STAND TO BE ADJUSTED AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF THE STORM SLOWS OR BECOMES STATIONARY FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO THE STRONGEST WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SPEEDS INLAND WILL BE MUCH
LESS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S IN SOME PLACES.
NCEP SREF Ensembles.

Rainfall Estimates have gone up again..

21z Run
Man...it was raining hard there for about 30 or 40 minutes. Easily a 1.5 to 2" per hour kind of rain.
Quoting 288. JrWeathermanFL:

I just don't know if she got enough time...


She's not moving very fast..

3mph...
Quoting 296. Articuno:



She's not moving very fast..

3mph...


Even snails run out of time sometimes
Quoting 295. Brock31:

Man...it was raining hard there for about 30 or 40 minutes. Easily a 1.5 to 2" per hour kind of rain.



Are you in NC/SC?
TWC must be overjoyed. They had a live tornado on their hands, had to break out their tropical graphics for Ana, and had a snowstorm take on another one of their silly names - all in one day!

Bill?
Quoting 299. wxgeek723:

TWC must be overjoyed. They had a live tornado on their hands, had break out their tropical graphics for Ana, and had a snowstorm take on another one of their silly names - all in one day!


I wish that Verizon still had TWC

Accuweather and Weathernation are just absolute $%!^
00:05:00Z 33.567N 77.700W 844.4 mb
(~ 24.94 inHg) 1,522 meters
(~ 4,993 feet) 1011.5 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 118° at 59 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 67.9 mph) 9.7°C
(~ 49.5°F) 1.8°C
(~ 35.2°F) 66 knots
(~ 76.0 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.9 mph) 37 mm/hr
(~ 1.46 in/hr) 52.7 knots (~ 60.7 mph)
Tropical Storm
Quoting 299. wxgeek723:

TWC must be overjoyed. They had a live tornado on their hands, had break out their tropical graphics for Ana, and had a snowstorm take on another one of their silly names - all in one day!


Aye, it be da Conus Triple Cannon a-firing'....

Quoting 299. wxgeek723:

TWC must be overjoyed. They had a live tornado on their hands, had to break out their tropical graphics for Ana, and had a snowstorm take on another one of their silly names - all in one day!
Was it name Gandalf?
Quoting 300. HurricaneAndre:


Bill?
I hope so, so I can get rain but I can't believe it until it shows it constantly and for a week.
Quoting 300. HurricaneAndre:


Bill?
I thought we had learned our lesson when trusting the GFS with early seasonal development from the previous year(s).
307. beell
Quoting 283. Patrap:

Ana making a run to maybe Lower Her internal pressure and become a Hurricane,

Very reminiscent of Cindy 2005, my join date here.


I think Ana is becoming undone-although it won't spin down and lose convection as fast as I usually think it will!
Quoting 298. Articuno:



Are you in NC/SC?

Wilmington NC
.
Quoting 305. washingtonian115:

I thought we had learned our lesson when trusting the GFS with early seasonal development from the previous year(s).
Lol let him be excited, he still haven't learn the tricks the GFS can pull.
Quoting 307. beell:



I think Ana is becoming undone-although it won't spin down and lose convection as fast as I usually think it will!


Dry air is definitely choking it off now. The radar presentation continues to degrade. Earlier I was certain Cape Fear was about to get lashed and then the heaviest convection just went poof.
What numbers do recon support so far?
ATL: Ana trying to stregthen and develop an inner core. Recon found flight level winds at 68kts and surface winds could be 65mph. It may be stronger than anticipated and more recon data is need for NHC to make the call.
West Pack: Super Typhoon Noul is about to make landfall. Warming SSTs (87F) and less dry air allowed for this system to explode and become a Cat 4 (from a Cat 2) in about a day or so. Further strengthening is expected...

Read more here
Damage pictures are coming in from south of Cisco, Texas, and it's bad. Several homes have been severely damaged, and at least one has been completely obliterated. Trees have been snapped and debarked. The damage pictures suggest at least an EF3, if not an EF4.




Quoting 310. allancalderini:

Lol let him be excited, he still haven't learn the tricks the GFS can pull.
I've learned. I'm just showing you guys. Can't we have a little fun. Lol.
It's hard to justify looking at the recon data anything beyond 50 knots, IMO.
Wind gust of 59 mph at Southport, NC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1006 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0957 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE SOUTHPORT 33.92N 78.02W
05/09/2015 M59 MPH BRUNSWICK NC MESONET
Quoting 316. CybrTeddy:

It's hard to justify looking at the recon data anything beyond 50 knots, IMO.


agreed, contrary to popular belief, Ana is not intensifying and if anything she is starting to weaken
Quoting 286. Patrap:

Welcome to the Anthropocene.


I'm going to miss the ecosystems I grew up with.
Quoting 300. HurricaneAndre:


Bill?
Quoting 305. washingtonian115:

I thought we had learned our lesson when trusting the GFS with early seasonal development from the previous year(s).


Although this is different because normally GFS early season ghost storms only normally occurs 300+hr range and this starts out at about the 196-210hr range
Ana cycling that inner core not unlike the throttle on a COX .049 engine when starting.


Shes getting that air to fuel ratio worked out

Note the uptick in that inner cycling convection.

There's always the debbie downers xD
Lol the downcasters of Ana are in the house
Quoting 320. wunderkidcayman:



Although this is different because normally GFS early season ghost storms only normally occurs 300+hr range and this starts out at about the 196-210hr range


weren't there lots of hypothetical GFS storms forming in the SW Caribbean all through last September and October, and were supposedly gonna be a threat to florida
325. beell
Quoting 323. wunderkidcayman:

Lol the downcasters of Ana are in the house


It's a big house. Plenty room for you!
Quoting 318. Hurricanes101:



agreed, contrary to popular belief, Ana is not intensifying and if anything she is starting to weaken


Shhh..we don't like your downcasting.. :-P Nah, I actually agree.
Quoting 323. wunderkidcayman:

Lol the downcasters of Ana are in the house


Being realistic isn't downcasting. There's no evidence on recon that Ana has strengthened. She's passing through cooler SSTs, weakening is anticipated. Ana put on a good show for May, but she's winding down.
From WWAY



Remember this when you start to see "interesting" model predictions
The Kansas supercell just exploded in intensity. A rotational velocity of 74.8kt suggests the potential for a significant tornado.

Quoting 327. CybrTeddy:



Being realistic isn't downcasting. There's no evidence on recon that Ana has strengthened. She's passing through cooler SSTs, weakening is anticipated. Ana put on a good show for May, but she's winding down.


Being realistic has no room on this blog!! lol
Land friction is going to increase the torquing around the mean CoC, and with the shape of the Landfalling coastline, should keep Ana status quo for a time longer.

The Nado threat will increase too.

Guys I'm leaving wunderground.com . Looks like my opinions aren't welcomed here anymore. And Taz was right I am stupid and too childish.You guys can bash me too. I'm all open.
Lol, downcasting. No the storm is blatantly weakening. The northern quadrant of Ana is disappearing.
Colorado Springs Area

... Winter Storm Warning in effect until 9 am MDT Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for snow and blowing snow... which is in effect until 9 am
MDT Sunday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Location... northern El Paso County.

* Cause and timing... a strong Spring storm system is expected to
bring snow to the area tonight and into Sunday morning.

* Snow accumulation... 4 to 8 inches.

* Wind... north-northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Impact... travel may be hazardous due to heavy snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are planning to travel in the advisory area during the
time of the advisory... listen to the latest weather forecast and
consider traveling at another time or by another Route.

Strong winds and reduced visibility are expected due to heavy
snowfall and blowing snow.

Avoid travel in the warning area. If you are planning to travel
in the warning area during the time of the warning... listen to
the latest weather forecast and consider traveling at another
time or by another Route. If you must travel in the warning area
during the time of the warning... take along a winter survival
kit. If you become stranded in a rural area... stay with your
vehicle until help arrives. To keep warm in your vehicle... run
your engine 10 minutes each hour... and make sure the exhaust pipe
is clear of snow to avoid Carbon monoxide poisoning.
I think I'm gonna join the ranks of Ana downcasters too. Even though she is showing us an eye, I think it has more to do with the waning convection exposing her core than a supposed strengthening phase. Ana will probably be no more than a weak to moderate tropical storm at landfall.
Quoting 333. Patrap:

Land friction is going to increase the torquing around the mean CoC, and with the shape of the Landfalling coastline, should keep Ana status quo for a time longer.

The Nado threat will increase too.


The geography of the Carolina coastline really is perfect for tropical cyclones to spin around.
339. silas

Ana's radar presentation may be deceivingly impressive, but satellite doesn't lie. Despite improving symmetry, this is a weakening storm that is losing any limited amounts of deep(ish) convection that it had earlier.
Ana is neither strengthening nor weakening at the current time. The ongoing reconnaissance mission safely supports 50kt; 55kt if you want to be generous.
Quoting 340. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ana is neither strengthening nor weakening at the current time. The ongoing reconnaissance mission safely supports 50kt; 55kt if you want to be generous.


Not for long. Have you seen anything of note?
Good night all..Going to see if GS is going to fold to Memphis..

might be back later..

have to say according to the NWS if the radar estimates are underestimating the rainfall then its going to some serious flooding going on...

WECT TV6
Up to 6" of rainfall isn't out of the question for isolated locations through the end of this weekend. Check out the current radar estimates:





It is exciting having a landfalling tropical storm before the season has even started. A storm that looks to cause very little damage in this tropical cyclone wary area. From near Myrtle Beach to Morehead City (and a little ways inland for the higher sustained winds), it should be 12 hours of rainy, squally conditions with strong wind gusts that will take out some power and knock down a few trees here and there. Everyone should be careful, but this should be a fairly "routine" storm considering the area. Ana is looking fairly organized on satellite. The northern "eyewall" is looking a bit shaky on radar though.
Getting some decent wind gusts on the Myrtle Beach cam now...
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N SANDY CREEK 34.32N 78.15W
05/09/2015 BRUNSWICK NC PUBLIC

2 TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ON BLUE BANKS RD. APPROX 200 WITHOUT POWER.
Quoting 341. wxgeek723:



Not for long. Have you seen anything of note?

Had a rainband move through about 30 minutes ago, delivering some gusty winds, but nothing really impressive.
Does anybody have a decent webcam from the northern philippines?
Quoting 334. HurricaneAndre:

Guys I'm leaving wunderground.com . Looks like my opinions aren't welcomed here anymore. And Taz was right I am stupid and too childish.You guys can bash me too. I'm all open.
Any opinions that do not agree with global warming agenda on here are never welcome.That is just the way it is .If you agree with it your comments will be blocked.Once you post anything anti-global warming they put you on ignore and never read your posts.The posts by Dr. Masters is mostly all global warming the best part of this site is info during hurricanes and severe out breaks which is great.They also have port light which is a great ministry to help the dis-abled during bad storms.God bless and check in during storms.
Ana looks a lot better than some mid season storms, holding steady at 60 mph per Recon , unless the next pass shows differently, I doubt the NHC will bump it up to 65 mph.
Ummm what just happened?
Lets all just appreciate our current weather situation..
Aside from the possible risks..
We have a Super Typhoon that looks superb..
A TS with a developing eyewall in EARLY MAY in the ATL..
Radar picturesque supercells...
A winter storm..

What a good day other than the destruction.
No changes. Pressure down 1 millibar.

Storm Archive
...CENTER OF ANA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
11:00 PM EDT Sat May 9
Location: 33.2°N 78.3°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 00:06:30Z
Coordinates: 33.600N 77.633W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,550 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.4 mb (29.90 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 129° at 56 kts (From the SE at 64.4 mph)
Air Temp: 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Dew Pt: 1.4°C (34.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 57 kts (65.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 20 mm/hr (0.79 in/hr)

Holding steady at 60 mph for now , shrinking and winding down over the next few hours!
354. MZT
Of course people will discuss a named storm so close to the US - but it's basically an early season mostly dry swirl like we have seen before. Reminds me of Andrea several years ago. Ho-hum.
Quoting 349. stormpetrol:

Ana looks a lot better than some mid season storms, holding steady at 60 mph per Recon , unless the next pass shows differently, I doubt the NHC will bump it up to 65 mph.


RECON reads LLCOC dropped to 1001mb

60mph seems to be right if recon can fly another pass and find stronger winds and lower pressure it would not surprise me at all
Quoting 354. MZT:

Of course people will discuss a named storm so close to the US - but it's basically an early season mostly dry swirl like we have seen before. Reminds me of Andrea several years ago. Ho-hum.


I think Ana is pretty impressive given climatology is against it. The storm put on quite a display today, though it's winding down now. Also quite rare to see a tropical storm hit the US in early May.
Done with freshman year of college! Woot! Checking in before my 13 hour trip back home to TN...let's see if there's any weirdos on WU tonight, ah, found one:

Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Had a rainband move through about 30 minutes ago, delivering some gusty winds, but nothing really impressive.


What do you want? Trees to go flying by?
358. beell
Some continued, consistent "downcasting" from the NHC...

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

Satellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure
increased in organization during the late afternoon as banding
increased over the northeastern portion of the circulation.
However, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures have
warmed and the convection has decreased in intensity. Data from an
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initial
intensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement with
uncontaminated SFMR winds. Ana is still forecast to weaken slightly
while it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight.
Additional weakening should occur once the center moves onshore
Sunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on
Monday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over
eastern North America.

Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north-
northwestward, or 320/04. The tropical cyclone should continue
moving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward. A broad trough moving
into the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days is
expected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward on
Sunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sunday
night. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory
and is close to the multi-model consensus.

Forecaster Brown
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Had a rainband move through about 30 minutes ago, delivering some gusty winds, but nothing really impressive.


I see on ILM radar that the rainshowers due north of the COC aren't as organized as those to the south, tomorrow looks like the day the Cape Fear region sees the most rainfall, winds, and isolated tornadoes. From the looks of it Masonboro inlet might see a good bit of erosion, although I see the Brunswick beaches, especially those on the west side of inlets, will be affected more.

And thanks for the recon link. And stay safe this weekend. We had some rain come into the Triad and it's very very humid but calm.
Quoting 350. washingtonian115:

Ummm what just happened?




Ana's presentation just changed back to Quasar, maybe where she's landfalling (that bow inward at the
SC/NC border) is where STSs who go tropical then back to STS go to landfall, after milking the Gulf Stream
during their short lives, for millennia.
I would not be suprised if RECON was to make another pass or two and finds pressures down to 999mb and maybe even higher winds more so closer the the coast and on the NE quad where the heaviest convection is currently
362. beell

click for storm reports
Simply no evidence from the RECON to support anything greater than 60mph. NHC agrees.
And of course RECON decides it's time to leave

Anyway whatever lol
Quoting 357. Astrometeor:

Done with freshman year of college! Woot! Checking in before my 13 hour trip back home to TN...let's see if there's any weirdos on WU tonight, ah, found one:



What do you want? Trees to go flying by?

Nah. I'd probably be satisfied if I saw you go flying by though. :)
Quoting 366. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nah. I'd probably be satisfied if I saw you go flying by though. :)

Get a room man, we're trying to track a tropical storm here. :)
Quoting 344. Huracan94:

Getting some decent wind gusts on the Myrtle Beach cam now...


I love live footage. I also see the flags flipping pretty good. The palm tree on the far left must be sheltered because it is not moving much, but I can hear the gusts and a "whirring" sound when the stronger gusts hit. Easily 25-35 gusting 40-45 mph occasionally right now.
A (lit) Cape Fear cam would be even better, as it appears some convection of the northern eyewall will be wrapping over that area shortly
Quoting 357. Astrometeor:

Done with freshman year of college! Woot! Checking in before my 13 hour trip back home to TN...let's see if there's any weirdos on WU tonight, ah, found one:



What do you want? Trees to go flying by?


Congrats, my super senior semester ended this past week...can't wait till 2016 but it stinks seeing all my peers with degrees and graduating now.
Quoting 368. HurrMichaelOrl:



I love live footage. I also see the flags flipping pretty good. The palm tree on the far left must be sheltered because it is not moving much, but I can hear the gusts and a "whirring" sound when the stronger gusts hit. Easily 25-35 gusting 40-45 mph occasionally right now.


I'm telling you guys, the Holden Beach cam has kept me entertained all night.
Quoting 371. wxgeek723:



I'm telling you guys, the Holden Beach cam has kept me entertained all night.


Woah, it's blurry, but you can tell its tropical storm conditions there. Why do these things always have to hit at night?!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON DODONG
11:00 AM PhST May 10 2015
=====================
Typhoon "DODONG" has accelerated and intensified as it moves closer to Sta. Ana Pt., Cagayan

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Dodong [NOUL] (943 hPa) located at 17.3N 123.0E or 140 km east southeast of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gustiness up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

SIGNAL WARNINGS


Signal Warning #4
Very heavy damage to high –risk structures
Heavy damage to medium risk structures;
Moderate damage to low-risk structures
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.

Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows

A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation,
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.

Luzon region
===========
1. Northeastern Cagayan
2. Batanes
3. Babuyan
4. Calayan Group of Islands


Signal Warning #3
Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
Moderate damage to medium- risk structures;
Light damage to low-risk structures
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed

Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing's); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.

There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted,
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.

Luzon region
=========
1. Rest of Cagayan
2. Isabela


Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down

Luzon region
=========
1. Northern Aurora
2. Kalinga
3. Mt. Province
4. Ifugao
5. Apayao


Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Luzon region
============
1. Rest of Aurora
2. Abra
3. Ilocos Sur
4. Ilocos Norte
5. Quirino


Additional Information
================
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 150 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over Sta. Ana Pt., Cagayan this afternoon or early evening (May 10), and will exit the PAR by Tuesday morning (May 12).

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Storm surges of up to 2.0 metersare possible over Gonzagaand Sta. Ana Cagayan.

Fisher folks are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon.

It is advised to refrain from outdoor activities particularly along beaches of the eastern section of Isabela and Cagayan today (May 10).

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lifted.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Wind gust of 58 mph at Frying Pan Shoals

Edit: this happened earlier today
Quoting 372. HurrMichaelOrl:



Woah, it's blurry, but you can tell its tropical storm conditions there. Why do these things always have to hit at night?!


So many intense storms have made landfall at night, Hugo, Andrew, Ike, Wilma, Dean. I was at the OBX during Arthur last year, and although we never lost power besides flickering, still couldn't get great footage. Link Interestingly the block north of us on NC 12/US 158 lost power.
In addition to denuding several trees and demolishing several homes, the tornado south of Cisco, TX this afternoon snapped a steel power line tower.

Quoting 372. HurrMichaelOrl:



Woah, it's blurry, but you can tell its tropical storm conditions there. Why do these things always have to hit at night?!


I like tracking night storms. It sets the tone, and normally you have more free time available to track them lol.
378. LBAR
I'm staying in the Crescent Beach section of North Myrtle Beach, and there isn't much beach to be had at the moment. The waves are rolling onshore, and they just keep coming. I will estimate 6 feet of beach between the apex of the rolling waves and the dunes. The winds are paralleling the coast, which is the ONLY thing protecting the dunes and holding back the waves here right now here in North Myrtle Beach, but as the coast line curves more to "catch" the waves, I'm sure they are being pummeled. Surfside Beach and Garden City are likely to have major erosion.

Sheets of rain have been falling, but the wind is really nothing more than a typical summer thunderstorm would bring, except they are sustained easily at 30 mph by my best guess.
Quoting 377. wxgeek723:



I like tracking night storms. It sets the tone, and normally you have more free time available to track them lol.


Good point otherwise I'd be stuck at work, or out watering all the thirsty plants. Come on, rainy season.
Weather not acting like a super El Niño. Dry in Florida and California. Multi-day tornado outbreak and a tropical storm landing in North Carolina.

This is my first post:) Long time lurker.
Seems the center is deviating more to the west at the end of the loop. Maybe Ana lands south of Myrtle Beach - Murrells Inlet perhaps?
Heavier band fast approaching Cape Fear/Southport.
Ya'll Crack me up! 60mph tropical storms don't have eye's! Lol

Quoting 381. wxgeek723:

Seems the center is deviating more to the west at the end of the loop. Maybe Ana lands south of Myrtle Beach - Murrells Inlet perhaps?


It might just be a jog, I still see the center passing between the Little and Calabash rivers at the state line, north of the Pee Dee and Waccamaw rivers, where Hazel made landfall 61 years this October.
Hey guys looking on Sat and radar I'd say landfall would be near Myrtle Beach maybe slightly S of there
The NWS forecast may be indicating that our rainy season will be easing in later this coming week with 20-30-then 40% chances of rain each day by the end of the forecast period. This would be roughly a week ahead of schedule and a welcome change to the dryness.
I'm not 100% sure if this is correct but when Ana makes landfall it'll be the earliest tropical storm to hit the United States in the satellite era. Maybe Cody or someone can verify that for me.
Quoting 383. thelmores:

Ya'll Crack me up! 60mph tropical storms don't have eye's! Lol




Early season hallucinations.
Quoting 387. CybrTeddy:

I'm not 100% sure if this is correct but when Ana makes landfall it'll be the earliest tropical storm to hit the United States in the satellite era. Maybe Cody or someone can verify that for me.


It would be the earliest in the satellite era, yes. Overall, the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm that struck southwestern Florida is (and will likely remain for a very long time) the earliest known landfalling United States tropical storm on record. The strongest pre-season Atlantic tropical cyclone title is held by 2012's Beryl, which struck northeastern Florida with winds of 65 mph.
Holden Beach, NC Webcam:

Link
Really None of you posted anything about the McCook, NE tornado.
Tropical storm in may, tornado and winter storm watches in the same county, and a blizzard on mother's day? Go home weather, you're drunk! 
394. IDTH
Is it me, or is it everytime rain bands hit land, they just die instantly.
Quoting 364. wxgeek723:






Looks like she ingested a little dry air. Look at how most of the thunderstorms collapsed. Ana's definitely not going to be a hurricane since she's moving away from the Gulf Stream towards land.
Quoting 392. 69044NE:

Really None of you posted anything about the McCook, NE tornado.



I heard one touched down 13 miles south of there. Anything else happen?
Quoting 393. TimTheWxMan:

Tropical storm in may, tornado and winter storm watches in the same county, and a blizzard on mother's day? Go home weather, you're drunk! 


Yet if you turn on The Weather Channel they are showing junk programming.
Quoting 394. IDTH:

Is it me, or is it everytime rain bands hit land, they just die instantly.


I've noticed that too. It's so upsetting.
Quoting 397. AllStar17:



Yet if you turn on The Weather Channel they are showing junk programming.



They usually have live coverage until 10 or 11.
Just Looking At Radar, My Guess Is That The inner core has collapsed, and we now have a large center with multiple vortices......
Quoting 399. TimTheWxMan:




They usually have live coverage until 10 or 11.


They used to have live coverage all the time. Plus, with a landfalling tropical storm, ongoing severe weather, and a "winter storm" they named...you can't stay on throughout...including the overnight? Sad if you ask me. I could not care less about the useless junk they frequently have on.
Quoting 401. AllStar17:



They used to have live coverage all the time. Plus, with a landfalling tropical storm, ongoing severe weather, and a "winter storm" they named...you can't stay on throughout...including the overnight? Sad if you ask me. I could not care less about the useless junk they frequently have on.



I don't think they ever stayed on all night for just a tropical storm. Maybe you could make a case for the severe storms in OK and TX. Otherwise, I wouldn't consider events at this moment urgent enough to warrant 24 hour coverage, though I certainly don't want to promote their junk. They stayed on all night last summer during Arthur.
Quoting 402. wxgeek723:



I don't think they ever stayed on all night for just a tropical storm. Maybe you could make a case for the severe storms in OK and TX. Otherwise, I wouldn't consider events at this moment urgent enough to warrant 24 hour coverage, though I certainly don't want to promote their junk. They stayed on all night last summer during Arthur.


When the channel used to be good they were generally on 23 hours a day (with the exception of Storm Stories for an hour) regardless of what was happening. That channel has gone so far downhill it's not even funny.
Radar here out of Wilmington continues to highlight a region of 65-75kt winds at 1400-1500ft in the northeastern quadrant of Ana. It's safe to say the intensity of the storm has not changed much (yet) even though overall convective organization has degraded from earlier.
Quoting 403. AllStar17:



When the channel used to be good they were generally on 23 hours a day (with the exception of Storm Stories for an hour) regardless of what was happening. That channel has gone so far downhill it's not even funny.


Couldn't agree more. I don't mind the idea of a departure from the green screen in favor of some educational weather entertainment but nowadays it's completely out of hand. Oh and I miss the old Local on the 8s. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Quoting 383. thelmores:

Ya'll Crack me up! 60mph tropical storms don't have eye's! Lol




its a dry spot.... false eye
Seen a few buoy reports within those N / NE quad bands with 40-42 kts sustained, and Station 41013 / Frying Pan Shoals appears had a peak 60 mph gust (11:24 pm SSE (150 deg) 52.4 kts).
Hell, I'm impressed with Lil Ana!
Not an underachiever at all, esp for May… ;)

It seems Ana is once again trying to wrap convection around the center. This storm doesn't quit. Meanwhile, the Holden Beach cam is getting a bit dramatic.
Quoting 360. redwagon:





Ana's presentation just changed back to Quasar, maybe where she's landfalling (that bow inward at the
SC/NC border) is where STSs who go tropical then back to STS go to landfall, after milking the Gulf Stream
during their short lives, for millennia.


You cannot be serious about this.

The reason the coastline is shaped like a half moon in this vicinity, is because of two rivers depositing sediment over millennia to the north and south of a low lying area, a.k.a. Horry County Swampland, or the Grand Strand. The erosion of the low lying coastline in between is why it looks like this. Whether this is because of hurricanes or other factors is irrelevant. Horry county, South Carolina is a swamp ... with the Cape Fear River to the North, and the Great Pee Dee River to the south of a swamp.

It might be fun to imagine giant hurricanes spinning for millinnea here, but I think the reality is far less dramatic.

This isn't Sesame Street. ;)





Quoting 404. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Radar here out of Wilmington continues to highlight a region of 65-75kt winds at 1400-1500ft in the northeastern quadrant of Ana. It's safe to say the intensity of the storm has not changed much (yet) even though overall convective organization has degraded from earlier.

Maybe not. ;)

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...
2:00 AM EDT Sun May 10
Location: 33.6N 78.5W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Did everyone go to bed?
Quoting 411. wxgeek723:

Did everyone go to bed?

It is 2am after all.
Quoting 412. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is 2am after all.


But it's also the weekend. I guess time flies when you're tracking tropical weather.
Quoting 412. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is 2am after all.


Ana is a fiesty one if you ask me. Very windy on some of these cams I've been looking at.
Quoting 412. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is 2am after all.


and its just a tropical storm, and not a real menacing one
http://thewinds.com/live-beach-webcam/
cool controllable webcam about 25 miles north of Myrtle Beach
pretty windy...
impressive considering the half of the eyewall has disappeared on radar
POST 409: Haven't posted here in a long time and forgot how to quote your post, but I agree with you about the coastal plain being eroded sediment. However, Cape Fear is caused by an area of tectonic uplift known as the "Cape Fear Arch".
http://www.postandcourier.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic le?date=20081105&category=PC1602&lopenr=311059914& Ref=AR
Quoting 415. nwobilderburg:



and its just a tropical storm, and not a real menacing one
Agree I will argue its more interesting watching Noul than Anna.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 ENE OCEAN ISLE BEACH 33.90N 78.39W
05/10/2015 BRUNSWICK NC PUBLIC

1-3 FT OF WATER FROM OVERWASH ALONG EAST 5TH STREET AND SHALLOTTE BLVD
Quoting 418. allancalderini:
Agree I will argue its more interesting watching Noul than Anna.


LOL! W-Pac is on fire right now meaning this ENSO means business and is no punk like last year's event.You can see by looking at 94W another WWB is in coming.

Noul


Dolphin



94W
Brunswick County really taking this one in the neck.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NCC019-100815-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0004.150510T0619Z-150510T0815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BRUNSWICK NC-
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT

* AT 216 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT
WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
OAK ISLAND...SHALLOTTE...HOLDEN BEACH...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...CASWELL
BEACH...BALD HEAD ISLAND...OCEAN CREST PIER...YAUPON BEACH...
BOILING SPRING LAKES...ST. JAMES...SOUTHPORT...SUPPLY...MILL
CREEK...LONG BEACH...HONEY ISLAND...BRUNSWICK COUNTY COMMUNITY
COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS...CIVIE TOWN...RUSSTOWN...MAKATOKA AND
VARNAMTOWN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN A TRAINING BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
NEAR BALD HEAD ISLAND...TO BOLIVIA...TO HONEY ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES US ROUTE 17 IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11
AND 35.
Also don't be shocked to see a -60 on the daily value over the next 5 days as the ridge over Australia is forecast to get stronger.

Quoting 420. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! W-Pac is on fire right now meaning this ENSO means business and is no punk like last year's event.You can see by looking at 94W another WWB is in coming.

Noul


Dolphin



94W



when is the W-pacific not on fire. That basin always has the most impressive storms of the year, year after year.
Quoting 419. wxgeek723:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 ENE OCEAN ISLE BEACH 33.90N 78.39W
05/10/2015 BRUNSWICK NC PUBLIC

1-3 FT OF WATER FROM OVERWASH ALONG EAST 5TH STREET AND SHALLOTTE BLVD


Not too surprising, the way the storm is aiming at the state line, the Shallotte Inlet and the west banks of the Little/Calabash river system will get the highest pile up of water, Bald Head and Masonboro islands also will be areas subject to this. At least no wide roads on Bald Head, half is just for bikes/golf carts, the rest is maritime forest.
Quoting 421. wxgeek723:

Brunswick County really taking this one in the neck.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NCC019-100815-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0004.150510T0619Z-150510T0815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BRUNSWICK NC-
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT

* AT 216 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT
WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
OAK ISLAND...SHALLOTTE...HOLDEN BEACH...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...CASWELL
BEACH...BALD HEAD ISLAND...OCEAN CREST PIER...YAUPON BEACH...
BOILING SPRING LAKES...ST. JAMES...SOUTHPORT...SUPPLY...MILL
CREEK...LONG BEACH...HONEY ISLAND...BRUNSWICK COUNTY COMMUNITY
COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS...CIVIE TOWN...RUSSTOWN...MAKATOKA AND
VARNAMTOWN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN A TRAINING BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
NEAR BALD HEAD ISLAND...TO BOLIVIA...TO HONEY ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES US ROUTE 17 IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11
AND 35.


Brunswick County has a lot of cypress swamp (Green Swamp at the center, waterways towards the Cape Fear, and the Waccamaw system to the west) inland from the ICW, heavy rain can cause localized flooding along US 17 and 211 which (especially 211) are near canals/streams towards the coast as well.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 10 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (1002 hPa) located at 6.4N 159.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 8.6N 159.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 9.7N 157.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
72 HRS: 10.1N 152.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Truk (Chuuk) waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
15:00 PM JST May 10 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Noul (915 hPa) located at 17.8N 122.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.2N 122.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 26.7N 128.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) east northeast of Naha, Okinawa
72 HRS: 35.5N 142.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of Japan
Wind gust to 60 mph on Oak Island recorded around midnight
Damon Lane:
@KOCOdamonlane

OMG....I have never seen this happen to a tornado shelter. We told you this rainfall in OKC was historic

oohh,
sneaux outside!
this'll be fun getting about tomorrow
Global Warming May Mean More Downpours like in Oklahoma

The deluge that hit Oklahoma City may foreshadow heavy rains to come

Quoting 428. Xandra:

Damon Lane:

OMG....I have never seen this happen to a tornado shelter. We told you this rainfall in OKC was historic


It floats, maybe it doubles as a flood shelter by becoming a boat. =p
Large brush fire in Collier County S.W. Fl.
The story (Link) says it was 60% contained, but that was last night. This mornings news said it was actually only 5% contained and helicopters were being used to fight the fire. Fire fighters are afraid it will spread during the day today.

Hope she wraps it around. Bone dry here in Florence. Last night 10pm was the absolute clearest sky I have ever seen since moving here. I haven't seen a night sky like that since we left Maine. Hard to believe Ana was about to make landfall 70 miles to my east in Little River area. Amazing all that subsidence on her west side. Moistening up this morning. Winds picking up as well.

Quoting 408. wxgeek723:

It seems Ana is once again trying to wrap convection around the center. This storm doesn't quit. Meanwhile, the Holden Beach cam is getting a bit dramatic.

just want to stop in and wish all the Mother's out there a VERY HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY ..enjoy your special day
Dang I can't help but notice the dead grass. Looks like some grub damage or possibly snails. Someone get them some Grub-x pronto. Sorry.

Incredible event for them. Looks like you could have filled your swimming pool.

Quoting 428. Xandra:

Damon Lane:
@KOCOdamonlane

OMG....I have never seen this happen to a tornado shelter. We told you this rainfall in OKC was historic


Always thought the Lumber flowed to the Cape Fear. Now I see it flows to the Great Pee Dee. We are supposed to kayak on the Lynches next weekend. Thanks.

Quoting 409. OracleDeAtlantis:



You cannot be serious about this.

The reason the coastline is shaped like a half moon in this vicinity, is because of two rivers depositing sediment over millennia to the north and south of a low lying area, a.k.a. Horry County Swampland, or the Grand Strand. The erosion of the low lying coastline in between is why it looks like this. Whether this is because of hurricanes or other factors is irrelevant. Horry county, South Carolina is a swamp ... with the Cape Fear River to the North, and the Great Pee Dee River to the south of a swamp.

It might be fun to imagine giant hurricanes spinning for millinnea here, but I think the reality is far less dramatic.

This isn't Sesame Street. ;)






437. MZT
Quoting 433. HaoleboySurfEC:

Hope she wraps it around. Bone dry here in Florence. Last night 10pm was the absolute clearest sky I have ever seen since moving here. I haven't seen a night sky like that since we left Maine.

Ana may succeed in being a local flooding event on some beaches. But inland it's been a bust even by modest standards. Here in Gaston county NC the forecast kept calling for stratus to fill up the sky overnight yesterday and today, and Ana could not even do that. The air has been clear and humid, vaguely tropical - that's about all.
Quoting 423. nwobilderburg:



when is the W-pacific not on fire. That basin always has the most impressive storms of the year, year after year.

This year is exceptional.

From Friday's blog:
"but when JMA gives TS 7 a name, it will break the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year, according to statistics of the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. The early start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event."

The name is Dolphin so the new record is set and broke the old record by about 10 days.
Its a nice beautiful morning up here in Greenville, SC. You'd never tell that there is a mini tropical storm in the NE part of the state. The sun is out and there is barely a NE wind at maybe 5mph and that's it here.

gw's blame desert like conditions and heavy rain events on man-made gw. i blame it on mother nature. happy mothers day
Quoting 440. islander101010:

gw's blame desert like conditions and heavy rain events on man-made gw. i blame it on mother nature. happy mothers day
Yep, just Mother Nature doin' her thing in response to an increase of 61% in the atmospheric concentration of a harmless gas emitted by human beings in their daily activities. But she'll get the hang of it soon. Just needs practice.
It will be interesting to see the drought map for Oklahoma next week.
This map was released on May 7th
2015 land falling storms, 1 named storm, 1 landfall. How many named storms do you think we will have in 2015? How many land falling storms? I am thinking 13 named storms, 5 landfalls, 2 major hurricanes on land..... I just threw darts at my dart board for this prediction.... :)
Quoting 444. forecaster1:

2015 land falling storms, 1 named storm, 1 landfall. How many named storms do you think we will have in 2015? How many land falling storms? I am thinking 13 named storms, 5 landfalls, 2 major hurricanes on land..... I just threw darts at my dart board for this prediction.... :)


A member has a list compiled with blog members' predictions. Maybe he will post it and add you to the list.
Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For details visit the GeoMet on the following Link

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
13:15 UTC


Quoting 449. Patrap:


Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
13:15 UTC



Looks more symmetrical today...A lot better than this..

Did Ana just redevelop an eye? I have a gut feeling it may just be a dry air pocket that happens to be in the center of the storm, but it does look pretty convincing...



Note- I took the map layer out of the picture to better show the "eye".
On radar Ana has a "hurricane-esque" shape, at least in the central portion.



Quoting 454. Patrap:

Ocean Isle Beach,NC. webcam


South winds at the Myrtle Beach cam, East winds here.
Quoting 456. WIBadgerWeather:



South winds at the Myrtle Beach cam, East winds here.



Humpteen twenty and 2 dozen and 1 years ago I was a waitress at the original ISLANDER, right near that web cam. Good Times, Good Times........
Our species! Link
A circumzenithal arc that appeared around noon yesterday in Memphis! How annoying I cant get the image to link, too bad it was pretty spectacular.


A watch is possible for this area.
463. JRRP
GFS forecast the first TROPICAL WAVE
24h

48h

144h near 50w


Just for fun - a reality check...

Clarifying and correcting an earlier comment by someone who seems to not believe in scientific evidence.
Any [unsupported and subjective] opinions that do not agree with [climate science] here are never welcome. That is just the way it is. If you don't accept [the very real and overwhelming evidence provided by science,] your comments will be blocked. Once you post anything [based on myths, pseudoscience or debunked misinformation] they put you on ignore and never read your posts. The posts by Dr. Masters [are] mostly all global warming.

The best part of this site is info during hurricanes and AGW/CC-influenced severe weather outbreaks, which is great. They also have [Portlight] which is a great ministry to help the [victims] during bad storms.
SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ERN OK / NE TX SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E...WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES POSSIBLY YIELDING A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GROVE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...CORFIDI
Quoting 409. OracleDeAtlantis:



You cannot be serious about this.

The reason the coastline is shaped like a half moon in this vicinity, is because of two rivers depositing sediment over millennia to the north and south of a low lying area...
Excellent educational post - thanks!
The worst floods that have occurred in Havana in decades. For details visit the following Geomet
Link
https://mobile.twitter.com/CurtOlsonwx/status/59740 6989363367936

Snow accumulating in South West North Dakota. My new Daughter in Law is from Hondurus. She thought The mountains of Guatamala where cold. She and my son are living in Dickinson. This should be an experience.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 442. hydrus:


Quoting 468. Gustavike:

The worst floods that have occurred in Havana in decades. For details visit the following Geomet
Link



A link to a blog written in Spanish?
472. beell
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NOAA Doppler radar, surface data and visible satellite imagery indicate that Ana continues to move over land near the South Carolina-North Carolina border. Surface observations suggest that the cyclone is barely of tropical storm intensity. Since the center is expected to be over land at least through tonight, weakening to a tropical depression is likely later today. Ana is forecast to move back over the Atlantic in about 36 hours, but regeneration after that time is unlikely due to cool waters and strong shear. The global models show the system degenerating into an open trough and becoming absorbed by a large mid-latitude low over Atlantic Canada in about 60 hours.

Ana appears to have turned toward the north but the forward speed continues to be quite slow, around 4 kt. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough should cause Ana or its remnant to turn toward the northeast with some acceleration over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is quite close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Elevated water levels, high surf, and rip currents will continue to pose a threat over portions of the North and South Carolina coasts today.

Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 454. Patrap:

Ocean Isle Beach,NC. webcam


that webcam pans across the beach kinda cool...not the best day for a walk on the beach :)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1015 AM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELL
CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES
EXPECTED TO MOVE / DEVELOP GENERALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Happy Mother's Day everyone!

Here's the data from Frying Pan Shoals; peak winds of about 48 mph around 10 PM last night, wave heights in the 13-16 ft range during that time. Link