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Subtropical Storm Ana More Organized; Philippines' Cat 3 Noul Intensifying

By: Jeff Masters 6:44 PM GMT on May 08, 2015

Tropical storm warnings are flying along much of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts as a nearly stationary Subtropical Storm Ana spins away about 180 miles south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Ana gained enough organization and heavy thunderstorms last night to be classified as a subtropical storm; its formation date of May 7 is the earliest appearance of a named storm in the Atlantic since a previous incarnation of Subtropical Storm Ana was recognized on April 20, 2003.

Long-range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina Friday afternoon showed only a small amount of heavy rains associated with the storm were reaching the coast, and satellite loops showed that the main area of heavy thunderstorms were on the southeast side of the storm, farthest from the coast, and about 100 miles from the center of circulation. This is a typical appearance for a subtropical cyclone. As explained in wunderground's subtropical storm tutorial, a subtropical cyclone has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain, and tropical storms have the potential to rapidly intensify into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. The area of heavy thunderstorms was expanding in areal coverage and a tight circulation center fully exposed to view was apparent on Friday afternoon, indicating that Ana was growing more organized; Ana will likely be a tropical storm and not a subtropical storm by Friday night. Wind shear over Ana was a light 5 - 10 knots, which was aiding development. Ocean temperatures were near 25°C (77°F), which is just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form. Cold air aloft associated with an upper level low was increasing the instability of the atmosphere, though, allowing Ana's heavy thunderstorms to grow more than usual for ocean temperatures of 25°C. This upper-level low was also bringing dry air into Ana's core, though, which has been slowing the storm's development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Ana.


Figure 2. Radar image of Ana taken at 2:16 pm EDT Friday May 8, 2015, from the Long-range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina. A few modest rainbands were affecting the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Forecast for Ana
The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over Ana would be in the light to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, until the storm makes landfall on Sunday. Steering currents are weak over the waters off the Southeast U.S. coast, so expect a slow motion for the storm. The 12Z Friday morning runs of our two top models for predicting tropical cyclone tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed the system making landfall on Sunday between 8 am - 5 pm EDT near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. Given the relatively marginal environmental conditions for intensification, the cooler waters Ana will encounter as it nears the coast, and the fact the storm has only about two days until landfall, I expect that the worst Ana will be able to do is intensify to a 65-mph tropical storm that brings 4 - 6" of rain to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Saturday and Sunday. My expectation is that the storm will have 55 mph winds at landfall. In their 11 am EDT Friday forecast, NHC called for 50 mph winds at landfall.

Wunderground member Levi Cowan has been putting together some nice video discussions of Ana; you can check out his 11 am EDT Friday version here.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Noul taken from NASA's Aqua satellite at 04:55 UTC May 8, 2015. At the time, Noul was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Category 3 Typhoon Noul headed for the northern Philippines
Category 3 Typhoon Noul (called Dodong in the Philippines’ naming system) continued a slow intensification process on Friday morning, with winds estimated at 120 mph winds as of 8 am EDT Friday. WIth plenty of deep, water water before it and wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots, continued intensification into a Category 4 storm appears likely as the storm heads towards the northern Philippines. Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that Noul was a medium-sized storm with a 16-mile diameter eye and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. The storm didn't have much in the way of outer spiral bands, and had taken on the shape of a large donut. This sort of configuration may qualify Noul as an uncommon class of tropical cyclone called an "annular" storm. Annular storms are more able to resist weakening, and I expect Noul will remain at least a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds within six hours of landfall, despite the increasing levels of wind shear and weakening effects of land interaction that will be occurring. The outer reaches of Noul are already affecting the Philippines, and landfall of the center is expected to occur in northeastern Luzon Island near 11 pm EDT Saturday (03 UTC Sunday), according to the 12Z Friday run of the GFS model. Noul will encounter a trough of low pressure as it approaches the Philippines, which is expected to induce a more northwesterly track. This may cause the storm's eye to miss or barely graze the Philippines, as predicted by the 12Z Friday run of the European model. In either case, Luzon will be on the weaker left front side of Noul, which will make heavy rains the main threat from the storm. The 06Z Friday run of the GFDL model predicted that heavy rains in excess of 8 inches would be confined to a very small portion of the northeast coast of Luzon. I do not expect this to be a major disaster for the Philippines; loss of life should be limited and damage in the tens of millions of dollars if Noul makes a grazing landfall as a Category 3 or 4 storm.

Noul will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines so far in 2015. The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season--during Easter weekend, April 4 - 5. Fortunately, Maysak was weakening rapidly as it made landfall, and no deaths or significant damage were reported (though four people were injured after huge waves generated by Maysak hit them while they were taking selfies along the shoreline of Dipaculao town in Aurora province on April 4.)

Record early activity for the 2015 typhoon season
On the heels of Noul comes Tropical Storm Seven, which is organizing to the east of Noul over Micronesia. TS 7 should pass within 300 miles of Guam next week as an intensifying typhoon, and may pose a long-range threat to the Philippines. Satellite loops show that TS 7 is not yet well-organized, but it does have a large area of heavy thunderstorms. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) was still classifying TS 7 as a tropical depression on Friday afternoon, but when JMA gives TS 7 a name, it will break the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year, according to statistics of the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. The early start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event.

All-time May heat record for Europe falls--in the first week of May!
Extreme heat roasted Italy this week, where the city of Catenanuova hit 41.9°C (107.4°F) on Wednesday, May 6. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest May temperature ever recorded in Europe. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F), set on May 17, 2006 in Andujar, Spain. The new European May heat record comes just one day after the earliest 40°C temperature ever recorded in Europe--a 40.4°C (104.7°F) reading at San Priamo in southeastern Sardinia, according to Herrera's stats.

A major severe weather outbreak is expected across the Central U.S. on both Friday and Saturday afternoon, as discussed by Bob Henson in this morning's blog post. Check out our Severe Weather Page to follow the storms, and our live blog on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

IMG_9432933316755.jpeg
IMG_9432933316755.jpeg
Future Ana...Charleston Harbor...5/7/25 8pm EDT

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nice update
kudos levi
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr Masters!
Thank You Dr. The upper level low (noted below) is both a boom and curse for Ana. The baroclinic interaction of the cooler air from above with the warmer air at the surface is helping Ana to build some convection but that same pool of air is also very dry and getting entrained in the circulation. A delicate balance for sure and very good call on your assessment around landfall.

Thanks Doc.

Good afternoon class! A chilly day in the Soo Cal mountains and I see a little snow on the tops at about 5,000 feet elevation....Im down at 3500 feet and been all rain during the night and morning. But will take 1" of rain for sure! With that inch of rain, am a little over 50% of normal since July 1, 2014. Hope that El Nino holds off and becomes strong during the Fall-Winter.......if it ever decides to make up it's mind what it wants to do.

A chilly 47 at my location today!

Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 08 May 11:48 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 08 May 11:40 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 May 11:40 am PDT 47 38 71 WSW 8G15
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters.

It sure is a weird day around here in Charleston. Sun is shining, a little breezy, and there is a tropical storm just offshore. No sustained moisture on the west flank of the storm=no rain bands for this area. Maybe that'll change if she can truly wrap convection all the way around.
Wow it's so DRY here. I don't think I'll change anytime soon... probably not before this EL NINO is gone... probably not before april/may of next year. Hopefully LA NINA will come soon.

This situation will be a problem in parts of the Caribbean. EL NINO is not good down here.
Boy how many blogs are ya gonna have today I just changed over 3 blogs

Ana
Convection starting to wrap around the LLCOC
The LLCOC becoming tighter and much more organised
NHC says transition is occurring
I hope it completes transition before nightfall
Looks like Ana has finally consolidated its center into a well defined one, and looks to be tropical now...... get rid of the sub stuff. On and off showers here in Myrtle....... guess that is what we get for the next 2-3 days!
Quoting 6. Patrap:






Looking like a "True" Tropical Storm now.
Quoting 9. CaribBoy:

Wow it's so DRY here. I don't think I'll change anytime soon... probably not before this EL NINO is gone... probably not before april/may of next year. Hopefully LA NINA will come soon.

This situation will be a problem in parts of the Caribbean. EL NINO is not good down here.


Dry here too. Infact my yard is turning brown fast the past few days infact and can't keep enough water on it as temps have near 90 with dewpoints in the 40's at times on the backside of Ana. Hopefully the GFS is right though and we see a shift into our Wet Season starting early next week.
Thanks Doc..This may be another rough year for the Philippines.
01L/TS/A/CX
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:



Looking like a "True" Tropical Storm now.


You mean that paltry naked swirl. Ana's window for strengthening will be closing over the next 24 hours. Once it moves into the cooler shelf waters and out of the Gulf Stream, that's it. In the meantime, dry air is winning the battle.
Quoting 16. StormTrackerScott:



Dry here too. Infact my yard is turning brown fast the past few days infact and can't keep enough water on it as temps have near 90 with dewpoints in the 40's at times on the backside of Ana. Hopefully the GFS is right though and we see a shift into our Wet Season starting early next week.


Same thing is happening to my lawn. We're having cloudless days around 90 degrees with dewpoints in the 50s and no rain in sight. I have hand watered some dry spots in my lawn every day this week.
Quoting 7. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good afternoon class! A chilly day in the Soo Cal mountains and I see a little snow on the tops at about 5,000 feet elevation....Im down at 3500 feet and been all rain during the night and morning. But will take 1" of rain for sure! With that inch of rain, am a little over 50% of normal since July 1, 2014. Hope that El Nino holds off and becomes strong during the Fall-Winter.......if it ever decides to make up it's mind what it wants to do.

A chilly 47 at my location today!

Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 08 May 11:48 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 08 May 11:40 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 May 11:40 am PDT 47 38 71 WSW 8G15


Fingers crossed that the new regime (Western US trough, central/eastern ridge) holds until winter. It's been nice getting a little bit of rain in April and May, and even nicer having the cooler temps with the RRR gone(for now at least). But the pattern will be far more beneficial to ease the drought during the normal wet season.
hanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Link
It's now a pure tropical storm.


tropical storm at 5pm
In case it gets missed:
Quoting Jeff Masters:

All-time May heat record for Europe falls--in the first week of May!

Extreme heat roasted Italy this week, where the city of Catenanuova hit 41.9°C (107.4°F) on Wednesday, May 6. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest May temperature ever recorded in Europe. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F), set on May 17, 2006 in Andujar, Spain. The new European May heat record comes just one day after the earliest 40°C temperature ever recorded in Europe--a 40.4°C (104.7°F) reading at San Priamo in southeastern Sardinia, according to Herrera's stats.
Yowza...
looks to be some powerhouse storms

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...ANA MEANDERING AS IT ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case also within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 77.3 West. The storm has
been meandering during the past few hours, but is expected to begin
a north-northwestward motion later today. A turn toward the
northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher
gusts. Satellite images indicate that Ana continues its
transition to a tropical storm, which should be complete later
today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected while
the storm approaches the coastline over the next couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and possible within the watch areas, by Saturday evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Given the projected path by NHC for Ana, we will get the north and northeast quads of the system here then has the center turning to go right over us....should I try and take pics to share with you guys? We are under some of the cloud cover/storm bands now.
Boy these early storms seem to becoming more frequent it seems. Looks like the center is cozying up closer to the storms so the prediction that it becomes Tropical tonight will probably hold true! TGIF everyone, long time no see!
Thanks doc for the good update, especially for mentioning the heat record in Italy. I have to confess that this event passed largely unnoticed in those European weatherblogs I use to visit :-0
Folks were occupied with a lot of severe weather (today in northern Italy, yesterday in Southeastern Europe, day before in Germany ...)
For those with TX interests, Lake Travis water levels have been steadily on the increase this year with a rise of 6.32' YTD. If the precip forecasts over the next several days come to fruition, the lake levels may potentially be at their highest levels since 2012. Long way to go to a full pool but it's progress.

Lake Travis water level

Quoting 24. hurricanes2018:



tropical storm at 5pm


Likely... looks like, in the last frame, she's close to hauling that main convective band over the exposed side of her circulation. Not many people think she's looking good but at least I've had some on my side haha. I think she's been improving throughout the day, to be honest - that structure is definitely tropical by now.
Quoting 9. CaribBoy:

Wow it's so DRY here. I don't think I'll change anytime soon... probably not before this EL NINO is gone... probably not before april/may of next year. Hopefully LA NINA will come soon.

This situation will be a problem in parts of the Caribbean. EL NINO is not good down here.
37. N3EG
Quoting 19. Chucktown:



You mean that paltry naked swirl. Ana's window for strengthening will be closing over the next 24 hours. Once it moves into the cooler shelf waters and out of the Gulf Stream, that's it. In the meantime, dry air is winning the battle.


I see a nontropical circulation swinging around, not an eye or a CDO. Nothing's happening.
Levi.......first and of least importance....i do have a problem with voyager....nothing comes close to the original.......

secondly....congrats on the mention by the good doc......your name and site keep getting mentioned....i remember back when you were just another young blogger with a love of weather and a desire to make it your field of study and work...

in the spirit of the original star trek...live long and prosper
40. N3EG
Quoting 33. LostTomorrows:



Likely... looks like, in the last frame, she's close to hauling that main convective band over the exposed side of her circulation. Not many people think she's looking good but at least I've had some on my side haha. I think she's been improving throughout the day, to be honest - that structure is definitely tropical by now.

That main convective band has moved 90 degrees in eight hours? That means in 16 hours it will have closed off, except for all that dry air which will now be on the front side. Not gonna happen, not tropical now either.
Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

01L/TS/A/CX

I know is May but i get a feeling that this year storms will have that dry and disorganized look.
Quoting 41. Gearsts:

I know is May but i get a feeling that this year storms will have that dry and disorganized look.



well don't hold much promise officially
but never rule nothing out for the season


Tampa Bay area. Local mets seem to be onboard with the rainy season starting next week.
That ULL moving towards the mid-west out of the So-Cal/SW Conus area looks ready to wreck a little havoc over the next 48 hours. The broad circulation it is generating is even evident on the broad scale doppler loop:
Pacific Northwest sector loop

Quoting 21. TimSoCal:



Fingers crossed that the new regime (Western US trough, central/eastern ridge) holds until winter. It's been nice getting a little bit of rain in April and May, and even nicer having the cooler temps with the RRR gone(for now at least). But the pattern will be far more beneficial to ease the drought during the normal wet season.


Eastern ridges in the summer are death domes if they persist all summer. Best example remains July and August of 1980, the most miserable pair of months I've ever experienced in the DC area although several individual recent Julys have been much worse single months (1993, 2010, 2011 and 2012)
Hopefully I can get under those 30% chances next week. Dry and hot here in FL as STS ANA has screwed up our weather pattern of late.

Thanks dok.
49. vis0
This was for last nite i forgot, stay tuned to midwest weather as the Dr. states.

ah..FICTION.?
Ana was a quite young lady born in Echatepakah, a small unknown/uncharted island south of Cuba** (9999N Lat., 9999 Long. ...don't try to google map the city, it it'll cause Google® to burst)

At a young age Ana found a friend El Niño and played hop scotch (Sit down washi115 not the drink)
One day Ana found out El Niño had to move out west as El Niño Parents Mr. & Mrs. ENSO had to go to the wPac, so they'd Pac'd up and went.
Ana was sad she had no one to play with. Her sadness built up moisture around her.
A short while later Ana decided to go out on her own.
As Ana crossed GoMx to her surprise she heard a familiar whistle, IT WAS EL Niño whom had graduated from Modoki University with a degree and summa cuum lately (couldn't figure a "sooner or later" version)
They began to both talk up a storm as to what both have been doing since El Niño had gone pout west.
El Niño told her, he's looking to settle near California later this year (stop dancing TAZ its only a story, hopefuly life imitates (crappy) art) for a year or two but for now for Ana to stay off Florida as El Niño has a good friend named ...STS in Florida that Ana can hang out with. Ana misunderstood thinking El Niño said "go to Florida and hang out as S(ub)TS".

Will El Niño find Ana when he comes back to STS's area in Florida or will another "lady" come between them (adjust story for preferred genders, as TS have male names too...don't get me started in using names for storms)
Will Ana meet up with barbamz.
Will Flo Rida change his name to I. OweAh? (how much!?)

Stay tuned FOR WATCHES & WARNING on NOAA radio and if you don't mind receiving watch updates a bit late stay tuned into NEW & Improved WxU. "WxU,LL get use to it"®....remember humans are who read these pages so bells and whistles are FANTASTIC (very creative WxU worker/artists/developers/programmers) but if humans can't use it properly ("Appergonomically"...maybe my 5th created word since 1998 accepted as an official word...fingered crossed), all those bells & whistles become an annoying case of Tinnitus....WILL SOMEBODY GET THE DARN iPHONE/ANDROID

http://www.fashions-cloud.com/pages/l/looney-tune s-ending-gif/

**don't have the tools like NOAA but i followed 2 interactions. The Low off Texas & a small wave all the way back to Africa that when both blended SW of the Florida Keys...Is it what became Ana? i cannot really tell as don't have the tools to view all 5 levels of Atmospheric interactions to see what interacted with what and what ever else to form Ana.

CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: on mp4
IMAGERY TYPE:: WV in a POV (point of view)VID.
AOI:: GoMx, southern Florida, SE coast of USofA
http://youtu.be/jNDJXf_GV3E(400x336)



image host
abbadee-abbadee my goose is cooked folks (anigif org title:: Thats ALL folks...or is it...CREDIT:: Looney tunes / Disney)
First tornado warning of the day just south of Childress, Texas.
Quoting 54. CybrTeddy:

First tornado warning of the day just south of Childress, Texas.
ANA...HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and possible within the watch areas, by Saturday evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

From the blog heading:-
According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest May temperature ever recorded in Europe.

We are set here in a lot of Spain to have around 36/38/c over the next 5 days as some African heat drifts over us.
No doubt there will be all sorts of horror stories and sunburn, heat stroke etc.

Meanwhile in between keeping an eye on the west Atlantic storm we will also be reporting in on what is going on over here.

Thank you Dr. Masters for keeping the info flowing.
Very strong rotation going through Spur TX right now.....probably on the ground. Classic hook echo.
Ana does not look tropical to me at all. Am I missing something? Running the risk of not doing extensive research and posting graphics of previous subtropical storms Ana looks like subtropical storms I have seen before. I do not think these things should even be named. (or winter storms for that matter)
Any chance of getting radar/model/satellite/etc links to actually go to the info indicated? All of them currently go to the forcast map - regardless of which you click.

This is a frightening with season looming in the near future!

14 year paid subscriber, wanting classic back!
Gonna head out for the weekend and the biggest wish is for our folks in the mid-west to be safe from the pending severe weather issues and for our folks in the SE to stay safe from the rain/flood threat from Ana as she moves ashore. A very active 48 hour weather period for Conus coming up into the weekend. Leaving yall with part of the recent GFS wind shear run. Notice all the shear headed into the mid-west and Ana able to keep it together "in between the shear gap" on the Eastern seaboard:

Be Safe Folks:

[JavaScript Image Player]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...ANA ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City
to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 77.4 West. The storm has
been meandering today, but is expected to begin a north-
northwestward motion overnight. A turn toward the northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday. On the
forecast track the center of Ana will be close to the coasts of
South and North Carolina on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher
gusts. Satellite images indicate that Ana continues its transition
to a tropical storm, which should be complete by early Saturday.
Little change in strength is expected while the storm approaches the
coastline over the next couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and possible within the watch areas, by Saturday evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:

Hopefully I can get under those 30% chances next week. Dry and hot here in FL as STS ANA has screwed up our weather pattern of late.




I hate when lows develop east of the state, most of the time it means an extended period of dry boring weather.
Quoting 25. Neapolitan:

In case it gets missed:Yowza...

Monday Morning the 4th of May, we went over to Portugal via Seville.
All the fields were emerald green and swaying in the gentle breeze.
Wednesday 6th of May, evening we came back over the same road, hay cut and drying, the corn all brown and yellow.
Friday 8th of May, a lot of corn cut and harvested which was green less than a week ago.

Tomorrow 9th of May; forecast 38/c or about 100/f, set to continue for about 5 days minimum.

Next week probably the start of the forest fire season. Meanwhile the tourists will be burning on the beaches!

Not to worry too much; its probably only a phase or an anomaly?
Nothing to worry about; just carry on as usual!
tornados reported on the ground in Texas and Oklahoma ..
Quoting 64. PlazaRed:

... Next week probably the start of the forest fire season. Meanwhile the tourists will be burning on the beaches! ...

Hey Plaza. Yes it stays hot in Spain, and until Tuesday (see map below) the heat will reach Central Europe/Germany once again this May - but only for some hours as a row of severe weather should send temps down very soon - hopefully this time without another F3 tornado ...



Back to the US where some folks are used to deal (somehow, huh) with this kind of stuff:


(Saved current loop). Source for updates.

Follow the chasers: https://tvnweather.com/live

Live TV coverage: http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

WU live-blog.

Good luck for everyone in the path of severe weather! I'm out for most of the weekend to enjoy some rural air with family ...
Quoting 63. Jedkins01:



I hate when lows develop east of the state, most of the time it means an extended period of dry boring weather.


I, personally, love it. Great astronomy weather. I still can't wait for our daily boomers to get going.
Basehunters had a tornado on their feed just seconds ago.
Quoting 69. Sfloridacat5:

Basehunters had a tornado on their feed just seconds ago.


Really? I missed it. I've been watching the southern most cell.

Any storm that can remain discrete enough can produce a potent tornado today, imo. I have my eyes on the cell east of Odessa, TX.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 428 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LOCKETT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERNON...LOCKETT...GRAYBACK AND OKLAUNION.
Quoting 66. barbamz:


Hey Plaza. Yes it stays hot in Spain, and until Tuesday (see map below) the heat will reach Germany once again this May - but only for some hours as a row of severe weather should send temps down very soon - hopefully this time without another F3 tornado ...



Back to the US where some folks are used to deal (somehow, huh) with this kind of stuff:



Hi Barb,
The heat will be on us until at least Thursday, as its the limit of the forecast.
Looks grim to say the least for most of Iberia and into north Africa.
This should all play havoc with the spring harvests as panic sets in before the fires and other mayhem.

Not many tourists yet as they are still grinding on in the north of Europe earning cash for the hols!

I have in my 23 years here in Spain never seen spring end so abruptly and so defiantly, I don't think they can harvest the crops fast enough.
Only a week ago we had quite heavy rains in a lot of the country.
Its gone from heavy rains in mid Portugal to dry serious heat at 36/c in a few days.

Things are not looking good long term, at least in our zone.
Anybody have a link to how what's left of the Arctic ice is doing?
Quoting 59. wartsttocs:

Ana does not look tropical to me at all. Am I missing something? Running the risk of not doing extensive research and posting graphics of previous subtropical storms Ana looks like subtropical storms I have seen before. I do not think these things should even be named. (or winter storms for that matter)

Totally agree, it seems like they want to name everything nowadays. I just had my fourth whirlwind of the year here, and I'm going to name it Dust Devil.
Quoting 73. PlazaRed:


Hi Barb,
The heat will be on us until at least Thursday, as its the limit of the forecast.
Looks grim to say the least for most of Iberia and into north Africa.
This should all play havoc with the spring harvests as panic sets in before the fires and other mayhem.

Not many tourists yet as they are still grinding on in the north of Europe earning cash for the hols!

I have in my 23 years here in Spain never seen spring end so abruptly and so defiantly, I don't think they can harvest the crops fast enough.
Only a week ago we had quite heavy rains in a lot of the country.
Its gone from heavy rains in mid Portugal to dry serious heat at 36/c in a few days.

Things are not looking good long term, at least in our zone.
Anybody have a link to how what's left of the Arctic ice is doing?


Try http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
or
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Sea ice on this date is second lowest of record FOR THE DATE. 2011 was lower.
Quoting 67. CybrTeddy:



I, personally, love it. Great astronomy weather. I still can't wait for our daily boomers to get going.


Well it does make for great vacation weather, I've been to the beach the last few days to kick off my summer break, and the drier air has been nice for it. Still though, I'll be happy for the sea breeze thunderstorms to return soon, this weather might be nice, but I'd like to see rain return.

Good news is, looks like next week we'll start seeing some sea breeze convection, and the focus should be on the west side of the state due to a southeast flow around a high developing to the east.
AccuWeather.com @breakingweather · 1 min Há 1 minuto
RT @NWSNorman: 436pm - possible tornado 5 miles SW of Vernon. Take cover in Vernon!! #txwx
Quoting 71. CybrTeddy:



Really? I missed it. I've been watching the southern most cell.

Any storm that can remain discrete enough can produce a potent tornado today, imo. I have my eyes on the cell east of Odessa, TX.


So far nothing but quick spin ups. They drop and kick up some dust and then the dissipate pretty fast. Have to see if things heat up a little later. Yesterday got pretty busy right at the end of the day before it got dark.
Looks like a fun week to do a bunch of nothing...

Quoting 38. Gearsts:




Too much SAL! It looks like july, not may. And it's been that way since march! Crazy!
Evening, all.

Finally got a little bit of Ana. Some pretty black clouds and decent gusts. Looks like Sunday will be the day if we are to get any weather of consequence.
Quoting 74. bwtranch:


Totally agree, it seems like they want to name everything nowadays. I just had my fourth whirlwind of the year here, and I'm going to name it Dust Devil.


You know, I feel bad for the NHC sometimes. If they name something, they're criticized for it. If they don't name something, they're criticized for it.




Obviously the ground needs the rain
Quoting 82. CybrTeddy:



You know, I feel bad for the NHC sometimes. If they name something, they're criticized for it. If they don't name something, they're criticized for it.


yup and armchair mets think they know more than they do

It is ridiculous really
Have my son in Ranger Tx and future daughter-in-law in Wichita Falls Tx.
Watching weather for the both of them.
Plus my baby (my avatar), substitute grand-daughter, is with my son's girlfriend in WF.
Fingers crossed for the three of them
Quoting 82. CybrTeddy:



You know, I feel bad for the NHC sometimes. If they name something, they're criticized for it. If they don't name something, they're criticized for it.


I agree, but it's worth remembering that in the end, they don't give a rip about what bloggers think about it, lol.
Quoting 81. nash36:

Evening, all.

Finally got a little bit of Ana. Some pretty black clouds and decent gusts. Looks like Sunday will be the day if we are to get any weather of consequence.


Center has just pulled up/partially under the convection. I have a feeling that if she is to take any kind of run at the dry air, it will have to be tonight. Now that she's partially covered and we are headed towards diurnal cooling, if she can scoot herself W 25-50 miles, she could take advantage of the GS waters. Will be interesting to watch either way.

Sun setting in the Caribbean Desert. This is what SAL does to our weather......



Quoting 87. StormJunkie:



Center has just pulled up/partially under the convection. I have a feeling that if she is to take any kind of run at the dry air, it will have to be tonight. Now that she's partially covered and we are headed towards diurnal cooling, if she can scoot herself W 25-50 miles, she could take advantage of the GS waters. Will be interesting to watch either way.




Maybe....just maybe we'll squeeze a little something from Ana.
Appears to be a circulation developing near Norman, OK.
1556 175 PLAINVIEW HALE TX 3419 10172 GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR THE PLAINVIEW GOLF COURSE RELAYED BY PLAINVIEW DAILY HERALD (LUB)
Quoting 81. nash36:

Evening, all.

Finally got a little bit of Ana. Some pretty black clouds and decent gusts. Looks like Sunday will be the day if we are to get any weather of consequence.


Where you at nash? I'm just south of fayetteville nc and we had some of the extreme outer bands kick up some good winds and a little rain earlier today. By the NHC forecast track, it has our area getting the north and northeast quads of the system as it moves onshore then the center moving over our area as it makes that right turn Clyde to the northeast. Judging by that we, here, will be in for a decent early season show
Quoting 82. CybrTeddy:



You know, I feel bad for the NHC sometimes. If they name something, they're criticized for it. If they don't name something, they're criticized for it.


But...
Ana should be declared a fully tropical storm tonight, probably at the 3z advisory. The persistent, deep convection in the northeast quadrant of the system is resulting in a re-location/reformation of the low-level center. As the system continues over the warm Gulf Stream and benefits from an unusually cold upper atmosphere, we should see at least a little bit of strengthening over the next 24 hours. Put me down for a 45-50kt peak.

Quoting 89. nash36:



Maybe....just maybe we'll squeeze a little something from Ana.


If anyone gets meaningful weather from Ana, I'm thinking it will probably be the SC Grand Strand.
Quoting 94. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ana should be declared a fully tropical storm tonight, probably at the 3z advisory. The persistent, deep convection in the northeast quadrant of the system is resulting in a re-location/reformation of the low-level center. As the system continues over the warm Gulf Stream and benefits from an unusually cold upper atmosphere, we should see at least a little bit of strengthening over the next 24 hours. Put me down for a 45-50kt peak.


Okay......... got it! You're down for a 45-50 :)
Today in Grand Bahamas, Bahamas.


Source: DaveEchols
Twitter: @EcholsDave.
Quoting 94. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ana should be declared a fully tropical storm tonight, probably at the 3z advisory. The persistent, deep convection in the northeast quadrant of the system is resulting in a re-location/reformation of the low-level center. As the system continues over the warm Gulf Stream and benefits from an unusually cold upper atmosphere, we should see at least a little bit of strengthening over the next 24 hours. Put me down for a 45-50kt peak.




Funny I was just coming to say that is a Tropical Storm now. Fully Agree
Here we go Super Nino, Here we go. Say or sing it with me folks. Here we go SUPER Nino Here we go!
Quoting 59. wartsttocs:

Ana does not look tropical to me at all. Am I missing something? Running the risk of not doing extensive research and posting graphics of previous subtropical storms Ana looks like subtropical storms I have seen before. I do not think these things should even be named. (or winter storms for that matter)


Truthfully, I have questioned NHC decisions in the past but I see nothing wrong with giving this storm a name. Nice swirl, one center, firing convection (though lopsided). It looks perfectly legitimate to me. It is only May after all.

Who says the NHC didn't name duck farts in the 80s? Check out Tropical Storm Arlene from early May 1981:
Subtropical Storm Ana from the International Space Station.



Once it mixes out the Dry Air at the center of the circulation, it will be able to intensify some:



Quoting 59. wartsttocs:

Ana does not look tropical to me at all. Am I missing something? Running the risk of not doing extensive research and posting graphics of previous subtropical storms Ana looks like subtropical storms I have seen before. I do not think these things should even be named. (or winter storms for that matter)


Convection over and/or near the center. Convection is far removed from the center in Sub Tropical. Hunters will confirm the wind profile though, which I assume is more compact with the convection.
Recon is in Route:

AF305 Mission #04 into ANA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 22:40 UTC May 08, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 32.87°N 80.75°W
Bearing: 90° at 303 kt
Altitude: 7287 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 20 kt at 24°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A
Here's your culprit

107. 882MB
Meanwhile in the Western Pacific, we have Typhoon Noul, soon to impact the Philippines, and Tropical Storm Seven, potential big system in the future.



Typhoon Noul







Tropical Storm Seven





Quoting 103. ProgressivePulse:



Convection over and/or near the center. Convection is far removed from the center in Sub Tropical. Hunters will confirm the wind profile though, which I assume is more compact with the convection.


It is the hypnotic spiral looking center that reminds me of subtropical storms I have seen in the past. Even lopsided tropical storms seem to have a "better looking" center.
A little snapshot before sundown:



Last chance it got before no more strengthening can be expected.
Wind has died down, showers passed for now, once Ana starts moving again things should get a bit more active in the next 12-24 hours.
Quoting 108. wartsttocs:



It is the hypnotic spiral looking center that reminds me of subtropical storms I have seen in the past. Even lopsided tropical storms seem to have a "better looking" center.


Her center just pulled under the convection. Wish there was more daylight to see if it gets spit out of convection and continues rotating around a larger gyre. I don't think it will.
Quoting 82. CybrTeddy:



You know, I feel bad for the NHC sometimes. If they name something, they're criticized for it. If they don't name something, they're criticized for it.



Anyone know the proper pronunciation of Ana? Specifically, is the first A a long "A" or a soft or short "A"?
Perhaps it's "uh- nah'" with emphasis on last syllable
Quoting 113. Fla55Native:

Anyone know the proper pronunciation of Ana? Specifically, is the first A a long "A" or a soft or short "A"?


Atlantic Basin Storm Name Pronunciations
115. JRRP
Well, now it is official, Ana is under 1000mb! It will be interesting to watch and see if she can mix out the dry air and strengthen!

As of 23:30 UTC May 08, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 31.88°N 77.32°W
Bearing: 45° at 158 kt
Altitude: 1453 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 9 kt at 247°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 999.1 mb

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Recon measured a pressure of 998.3mb as they passed through the center. We'll have to see if winds have increased.
Quoting 115. JRRP:




Oh, GFS ghost storms, how you tease.
Quoting 102. FIUStormChaser:



Once it mixes out the Dry Air at the center of the circulation, it will be able to intensify some:






I can't be the only one that sees two vortices rotating around each other in that first image, right? The one that popped out near the end looks weaker than the one that went under the convection, but still...
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...ANA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Quoting 115. JRRP:


Bill?

Nice for Mothers Day, got .37" of rain overnight, now 7.45" since 7/1/14
123. JRRP
Quoting 118. TimSoCal:



Oh, GFS ghost storms, how you tease.

lol
Should be fully tropical by 11pm

Quoting 122. PedleyCA:


Nice for Mothers Day, got .37" of rain overnight, now 7.45" since 7/1/14


SFV drew the short straw this time. 0.04" here.
Quoting 121. HurricaneAndre:

Bill?


384 Hours.... lol
Fully tropical by 11 pm EST update?
Recon is finding some strong winds.... Still haven't explored the convective burst in the NE quad.

Quoting 124. Stormchaser2007:

Should be fully tropical by 11pm




And dry as a Milkbone on the west side. *sigh*
Surprised no has mentioned that a Pressure of 998 Mb has been reported....



23:31:30Z 31.950N 77.217W 844.0 mb
(~ 24.93 inHg) 1,454 meters
(~ 4,770 feet) 998.3 mb
(~ 29.48 inHg) - From 235° at 11 knots
(From the SW at ~ 12.7 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 9.1°C
(~ 48.4°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 22.0 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
Quoting 115. JRRP:




:D

I'd say Ana is 95% or higher Tropical

By the looks of it Ana may try to do a quick burst of quick intensification lets see
Quoting 130. FIUStormChaser:

Surprised no has mentioned that a Pressure of 998 Mb has been reported....



23:31:30Z 31.950N 77.217W 844.0 mb
(~ 24.93 inHg) 1,454 meters
(~ 4,770 feet) 998.3 mb
(~ 29.48 inHg) - From 235° at 11 knots
(From the SW at ~ 12.7 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 9.1°C
(~ 48.4°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 22.0 knots (~ 25.3 mph)


It was mentioned. What surprises me is that no one commented on the apparent miss on the 1st pass. Seems they were on the very S side of the LLC.
10.20" of rain in Oklahoma City in last 72 hours.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

I'm guessing the moderate risk day today is underperforming so far, as all of the last 20 posts have been about a weak sub/Tropical Storm
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°53'N 77°19'W (31.8833N 77.3167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,399m (4,590ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 47kts (From the NNE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) which was observed 86 nautical miles (99 statute miles) to the SE (128°) from the flight level center at 23:58:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 245° at 15kts (From the WSW at 17mph)
General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)
Quoting 124. Stormchaser2007:

Should be fully tropical by 11pm




Also 50mph TS Ana
Quoting 138. stormpetrol:



Also 50mph TS Ana

55 MPH from one of post below from the info the HH got.. 54.1 to be exact but i know the NHC rounds so..
Quoting 135. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery




Ana still isn't over the warmest part of the Gulf Stream just yet.
Quoting 132. wunderkidcayman:



:D

I'd say Ana is 95% or higher Tropical

By the looks of it Ana may try to do a quick burst of quick intensification lets see


Quoting 140. nygiants:


55 MPH from one of post below from the info the HH got.. 54.1 to be exact but i know the NHC rounds so..


F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 47kts (From the NNE at ~ 54.1mph)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)

53mph
Quoting 134. weathergirl2001:

10.20" of rain in Oklahoma City in last 72 hours.




monthly precipitation is 180+ percent of average in more than half the state
Funny how Ana formed exactly 2 months before the average date of the 1st Atlantic Storm is named! I think July 7 is the statistical average of the 1st named Atlantic for Hurricane Season
Ana is starting to mean business. 65kts at flight level in that convection in the NE quadrant, and they were still increasing at the end of the last message. As mentioned though, the west side, which is what would be impacting the coast, is non-existent. Mostly a marine hazard for now.
Quoting 132. wunderkidcayman:



:D

I'd say Ana is 95% or higher Tropical

By the looks of it Ana may try to do a quick burst of quick intensification lets see



Quoting 114. nrtiwlnvragn:Thanks for the info link. Never seen that name before. It's been used before but I missed it.
Quoting 140. nygiants:


55 MPH from one of post below from the info the HH got.. 54.1 to be exact but i know the NHC rounds so..

From my understanding the NHC don't use 55mph anymore , they usually round off to 60 mph, I stand to be validated or corrected by some of the more knowledgable posters.
Quoting 145. stormpetrol:

Funny how Ana formed exactly 2 months before the average date of the 1st Atlantic Storm is named! I think July 7 is the statistical average of the 1st named Atlantic for Hurricane Season
normally sometime in july maybe a couple of invests in june but we got sts first this year 3 weeks early too
As, quite likely, the closest person to Ana on the bog...I thought it might be appropriate to list for you all the impacts I'm seeing in Charleston Harbor:



















Quoting 149. stormpetrol:


From my understanding the NHC don't use 55mph anymore , they usually round off to 60 mph, I stand to be validated or corrected by some of the more knowledgable posters.


I always thought they used knots and rounded off on the conversion.
Flight-level winds near 75kt are being found in the Northeast quadrant, outside the deepest convection. Uncontaminated surface winds have been in the 45-50kt range.
Something tells me that this hurricane season most of the storms will form in the western Atlantic in an area bounded by Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the SE coast of the US. Does anyone agree to this?
Quoting 153. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Flight-level winds near 75kt are being found in the Northeast quadrant, outside the deepest convection. Uncontaminated surface winds have been in the 45-50kt range.


And the Pressure recorded at the closest center pass was 998.3 mb, which indicates strengthening.

And according to SJ, they appeared to miss the center of the circulation.
Ana might just have a small chance of becoming a Hurricane in May
00:33:30Z 32.117N 75.700W 843.0 mb

Surface Estimation 52 knots
(~ 59.8 mph)
From the Recon data I've been seeing this could be 60 mph TS Ana at 11pm est.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0146.htm l This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0146
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.

WOUS64 KWNS 090025
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TORNADO WATCH 146 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC005-013-019-023-029-037-061-063-069-077-079-085 -089-091-095-
099-101-107-111-121-123-127-133-135-090800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.150509T0025Z-150509T0800Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL CREEK
HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MARSHALL MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH


TXC085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-237-277 -337-363-367-
387-397-429-439-449-497-090800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.150509T0025Z-150509T0800Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON HOPKINS
HUNT JACK LAMAR
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
RED RIVER ROCKWALL STEPHENS
TARRANT TITUS WISE


ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SHV...TSA...



Ana's still over 23-24C water. Will be interesting to see how it does once it shifts west to where the 25-26C water is. Perhaps a moderate to strong TS at peak strength?
My outlook for this hurricane season (just my gut feeling, lol):
(Ana is an added bonus)
June and July: 2 storms
August: 3 storms
September: 3 storms
October onward: 2 storms
My guess is 11/7/2
What are your thoughts :-) ?
Quoting 161. lobdelse81:

My outlook for this hurricane season (just my gut feeling, lol):
(Ana is an added bonus)
June and July: 2 storms
August: 3 storms
September: 3 storms
October onward: 2 storms
My guess is 11/7/2
What are your thoughts :-) ?


Believe it or not they are my exact numbers for the season total! :)
Quoting 158. stormpetrol:

From the Recon data I've been seeing this could be 60 mph TS Ana at 11pm est.

AL, 01, 2015050900, , BEST, 0, 319N, 773W, 50, 1000, SS,
Quoting 163. TropicalAnalystwx13:


AL, 01, 2015050900, , BEST, 0, 319N, 773W, 50, 1000, SS,
the winds will go up soon
Maybe a possibility of Hurricane Ana, as it still has another ~24 hours to intensify and still has yet to get over the warmest waters. Interesting little system to watch!
01L/TS/A/CX
31.31N77.99W
What's with the NHC Floaters page? They removed Ana last night and it's been blank all day?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html



Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

01:08:30Z 32.667N 76.450W
53.9 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


01:09:30Z 32.617N 76.500W
55.0 knots (~ 63.3 mph)
Tropical Storm

01:10:00Z 32.600N 76.517W
55.7 knots (~ 64.1 mph)
Tropical Storm



Doom.


maybe some rain for the northeast from ana!!
Quoting 167. Doom2pro:

What's with the NHC Floaters page? They removed Ana last night and it's been blank all day?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html


This link works for Ana.
Link

Edit: It works for me if I go to it but doesn't work if i try and get there from WU. Not sure what's going on.
Quoting 171. HurricaneKing:



This link works for Ana.
Link


I have the link already, but curious as to why it was there and then gone?
Non - Suspect noted 70mph SFMR reading.


01:10:00Z 32.600N 76.517W

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind
60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph
Quoting 168. FIUStormChaser:




Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

01:08:30Z 32.667N 76.450W
53.9 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


01:09:30Z 32.617N 76.500W
55.0 knots (~ 63.3 mph)
Tropical Storm

01:10:00Z 32.600N 76.517W
55.7 knots (~ 64.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


maybe winds up to 60 mph at 11pm i think i will be right!!
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Dense Fog Advisory
Statement as of 3:20 PM EDT on May 08, 2015

... Dense fog advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT
Saturday.

* Locations... New York City... Long Island... coastal
Westchester... and coastal Connecticut.

* Hazards... dense fog.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... tonight into Saturday morning.

* Impacts... hazardous travel areas with reduced visibilities.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of
you in case a sudden stop is needed.

fog coming soon!
Quoting 173. FIUStormChaser:

Non - Suspect noted 70mph SFMR reading.


01:10:00Z 32.600N 76.517W

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind
60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph


VDM threw it out.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°53'N 77°19'W (31.8833N 77.3167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,399m (4,590ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 47kts (From the NNE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
I'm surprised the pressure is still above 1000mb at this point...
Quoting 156. stormpetrol:

Ana might just have a small chance of becoming a Hurricane in May


no hurricane because its going to hit some cold water temps before it hit land!
Quoting 151. presslord:

As, quite likely, the closest person to Ana on the bog...I thought it might be appropriate to list for you all the impacts I'm seeing in Charleston Harbor:






















Touche, Press.

Charleston is pretty charmed. Well, other than Hugo. Systems just don't hit here. Always find their way to the magnet of NC.
Any way to get live updates on this blog? Like the new comments just automatically appear without having to refresh every so often?
Quoting 169. JrWeathermanFL:

Doom.



Fun! :)
Pretty decent swath there of 55-60 knot winds. Peak was 62 knots (SFMR, 10 second average) with flight level winds of 67 knots (10 second average).
Quoting 176. CybrTeddy:



VDM threw it out.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°53'N 77°19'W (31.8833N 77.3167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,399m (4,590ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 47kts (From the NNE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles



Interesting....

01:10:30Z 32.583N 76.550W

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind
62 knots
(~ 71.3 mph)

Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor
58.8 knots (~ 67.7 mph)
Tropical Storm
For those of you who would like to see the data of Recon for yourself, here is the link for it:
Link

And here is the link for the pictures of Recon and the Wind Barbs:
Link
Quoting 176. CybrTeddy:



VDM threw it out.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°53'N 77°19'W (31.8833N 77.3167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,399m (4,590ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 47kts (From the NNE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles


That VDM is from an hour ago. We should expect a new one soon as recon makes another center pass.
Ana hasn't gone west at all. I wonder if it will stay offshore.
Quoting 169. JrWeathermanFL:



Doom.


I go on a hiatus from WU due to finals... and then this happens XD
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That VDM is from an hour ago. We should expect a new one soon as recon makes another center pass.


997.2 mb
(~ 29.45 inHg)
Lowest extrapolated pressure is 997.2 mb.

Ana has done some work this evening, I believe. The fact the strongest winds are close to the area of lowest pressure adds some credence to Ana being fully tropical.
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That VDM is from an hour ago. We should expect a new one soon as recon makes another center pass.


Yea, I just noticed the time. For whatever reason tropicalatlantic.com was showing it as a minute old for me.
Just to be interesting .... But the future Dolphin is starting to remind me Haiyan when he was born ...
Super Typhoon Haiyan when had 40 mph:


Future Dolhin:


Noul down to 110 mph:


Ana begun to be interesting system in May...not strong but interesting:
60 mph, 997 mbar (i think) almost Tropical Storm.
Quoting 191. CybrTeddy:



Yea, I just noticed the time. For whatever reason tropicalatlantic.com was showing it as a minute old for me.


The next VDM will be quite interesting.
Latest RECON pass has pressure down to 998.3 mb

That's more like it...
195. beell
Some dry air AOA 700 mb still present to the west of Ana-based on the dropsonde release (T/Td spread) just off the coast and 2-3 HDOB's while descending from altitude.

700mb 3,114m (10,217 ft) 6.4°C (43.5°F) About -10°C (14°F)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 1:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 1:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32°02'N 77°21'W (32.0333N 77.35W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,393m (4,570ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 53 nautical miles (61 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 67kts (From the SE at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) from the flight level center at 0:37:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 12kts (From the ENE at 14mph)
General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)
Wow...

VDM has 62 knots and 998mb
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 1:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 1:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 3202'N 7721'W (32.0333N 77.35W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,393m (4,570ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 53 nautical miles (61 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144 at 67kts (From the SE at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11C (52F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19C (66F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11C (52F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79) from the flight level center at 0:37:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75 at 12kts (From the ENE at 14mp
Quoting 197. Stormchaser2007:

Wow...

VDM has 62 knots and 998mb


Well... Well... Well....

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
Do a 60mph tropical storm produce the same ACE as 60mph sub tropical storm or because one is fully tropical and the other not the ace differ?
Quoting 195. beell:

Some dry air AOA 700 mb still present to the west of Ana-based on the dropsonde release (T/Td spread) just off the coast and 2-3 HDOB's while descending from altitude.

700mb 3,114m (10,217 ft) 6.4°C (43.5°F) About -10°C (14°F)


That dry air is the main inhibiting factor...And the fact that she is refusing to slide W over the center of the GS. ATM, she doesn't look like she's going to be able to pull it together. That dry air just keeps daggering its way to the center.

Quoting 201. allancalderini:

Do a 60mph tropical storm produce the same ACE as 60mph sub tropical storm or because one is fully tropical and the other not the ace differ?
I dont believe they count sub tropical storm in the ACE total....I could be wrong...I am old school...:)
Quoting 197. Stormchaser2007:

Wow...

VDM has 62 knots and 998mb


Wow indeed. It's TS Beryl all over again.
Quoting 201. allancalderini:

Do a 60mph tropical storm produce the same ACE as 60mph sub tropical storm or because one is fully tropical and the other not the ace differ?

ACE is an index based on wind, and wind doesn't care about technical definitions, so no, the ACE values do not differ.
Ana is growing quickly
Quoting 202. StormJunkie:



That dry air is the main inhibiting factor...And the fact that she is refusing to slide W over the center of the GS. ATM, she doesn't look like she's going to be able to pull it together. That dry air just keeps daggering its way to the center.




The dry air is creating downbursts which is the reason that we're seeing FL winds near 72 knots and surface winds to near hurricane force. With the cold UL atmosphere and warm Gulf Stream, I would expect modest strengthening to possibly strong TS status by tomorrow. This isn't your typical tropical system and the dynamics involved are much more complicated.

You can't just broadbrush the situation by saying "oh look, some dry air, it'll weaken"
208. beell
Quoting 207. Stormchaser2007:



The dry air is creating downbursts which is the reason that we're seeing FL winds near 72 knots and surface winds to near hurricane force. With the cold UL atmosphere and warm Gulf Stream, I would expect modest strengthening to possibly strong TS status by tomorrow. This isn't your typical tropical system and the dynamics involved are much more complicated.

You can't just broadbrush the situation by saying "oh look, some dry air, it'll weaken"


All good points-just harder to build deep convection.
Quoting 205. TropicalAnalystwx13:


ACE is an index based on wind, and wind doesn't care about technical definitions, so no, the ACE values do not differ.
Thanks so now I see it would apply to extratropical storms if they were rated.
Quoting 207. Stormchaser2007:



The dry air is creating downbursts which is the reason that we're seeing FL winds near 72 knots and surface winds to near hurricane force. With the cold UL atmosphere and warm Gulf Stream, I would expect modest strengthening to possibly strong TS status by tomorrow. This isn't your typical tropical system and the dynamics involved are much more complicated.

You can't just broadbrush the situation by saying "oh look, some dry air, it'll weaken"


Well....first, she has to slide W and take advantage of the GS. And SJ is right. As long as her W side is chewed up soup sandwich, she isn't gonna amount to much. Will she be designated a TS? Sure. Will this be any more than a little breezy with a little rain? Not likely. Nor should it be. My lord....If we were dealing with a landfalling strong hurricane in early May, that'd be obscene.
by the looks of it RECON may be heading home

cant wait to see what new NHC advisory says
Quoting 202. StormJunkie:



That dry air is the main inhibiting factor...And the fact that she is refusing to slide W over the center of the GS. ATM, she doesn't look like she's going to be able to pull it together. That dry air just keeps daggering its way to the center.




Dry Air: *punch*
Ana: *Punch*
850mb temps/wind

Nice warm core.

Recon is increasing altitude and heading away from the storm, it appears they are finished for now.
Quoting 210. nash36:



Well....first, she has to slide W and take advantage of the GS. And SJ is right. As long as her W side is chewed up soup sandwich, she isn't gonna amount to much. Will she be designated a TS? Sure. Will this be any more than a little breezy with a little rain? Not likely. Nor should it be. My lord....If we were dealing with a landfalling strong hurricane in early May, that'd be obscene.


I believe if she makes hurricane force, she'll weaken over the cooler shelf waters before landfall, but nonetheless cool!
God bless America.....Poor Moore, OK. If they're not being blown into the stratosphere by tornadoes you thought you'd only see in Jan Dabont movies, they're underwater.
Quoting 214. FIUStormChaser:

Recon is increasing altitude and heading away from the storm, it appears they are finished for now.


Limited resources and fuel in May. Only two fixes for this one.


Anyone have a graphic of the Gulf Stream?
Quoting 213. Stormchaser2007:

850mb temps/wind

Nice warm core.



hot
Quoting 210. nash36:



Well....first, she has to slide W and take advantage of the GS. And SJ is right. As long as her W side is chewed up soup sandwich, she isn't gonna amount to much. Will she be designated a TS? Sure. Will this be any more than a little breezy with a little rain? Not likely. Nor should it be. My lord....If we were dealing with a landfalling strong hurricane in early May, that'd be obscene.


Its right over the Gulf Stream, and these systems like to pivot. The convection should continue to rotate and redevelop so long as the UL dynamics in place continue and it doesn't drift any farther west into those shallow shelf waters.

Quoting 220. Stormchaser2007:



Its right over the Gulf Stream.



wow its perfect
222. beell
Quoting 213. Stormchaser2007:

850mb temps/wind

Nice warm core.




Would have like to see what the differential is a bit higher up in the troposphere-say 700 mb. As a check on subsidence warming over the center. At 850 mb, with convection, it is gonna be warm anyway.
Quoting 222. beell:



Would have like to see what the differential is a bit higher up in the troposphere-say 700 mb. As a check on subsidence warming over the center. At 850 mb, with convection, it is gonna be warm anyway.


Ask and yee shall receive:

9.15C with the surrounding temps near 5C


Quoting 223. Stormchaser2007:



Ask and yee shall receive:

9.15C with the surrounding temps near 5C





Hmmm i feel like the National Hurricane Center will go with 999Mb and 60mph Winds at 11pm.


2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ANA STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 77.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
RECON REPORTING
MISSION COMPLETED
MISSION ENDED
HEADING BACK TO KBIX
Quoting 227. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ANA STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 77.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


Prediction was On Point minus that 1mb lol
What a mess. This area just can't seem to catch a break.


232. beell
Quoting 223. Stormchaser2007:



Ask and yee shall receive:

9.15C with the surrounding temps near 5C





Thanks, tried the AMSU page but the latest cross-sections would not load.
I think Ana is fully tropical, I think the 2 am advisory will be TS
234. IDTH
This is quite impressive, better than I thought this was going to be. Surprised.
Impressive for May!!
Ana's forward speed?



G'night
Quoting 233. stormpetrol:

I think Ana is fully tropical, I think the 2 am advisory will be TS
Quoting 235. stormpetrol:

Impressive for May!!


I think Ana is 95%-98% tropical and should be Tropical Storm Ana at 2am or at 7am
I think its possible Ana to become a 70mph TS between now and mid day tomorrow
overall impressive for early May
beell, thoughts on tomorrow's severe weather risk? Early morning convection is the only thing that I see that would prevent the day from producing a pretty significant outbreak. That said, the early morning convection could completely ruin the chances for an outbreak.

Easy forecast, lol.
The tornadoes/wind/hail are bad enough, but I just skimmed through all the flash flood warnings currently issued for OK & TX. There's some pretty decent rain totals being reported. They've got their hands full, that's for sure.

A few 'highlights':

NWS-Tulsa:

'FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OKFUSKEE COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 906 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED SINCE 6 PM WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. WATER RESCUES ARE OCCURRING NOW
IN OKEMAH
.'

NWS-Shreveport:

'FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 853 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. WIDESPREAD TWO TO IN EXCESS OF FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
..WITH THIS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL RAPIDLY RUNNING OFF. THUS...FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...MANCHESTER...WRIGHT CITY...VALLIANT...
MILLERTON...HAWORTH...GARVIN...KIOMATIA...RUFE...N EGLEY...OAK
HILL...HOLLY CREEK...SHINEWELL...GOLDEN...BRYARLY...EAGLETOWN.. .
GLOVER...GOODLAKE AND REDLAND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 1145 PM
.'

NWS-Norman:

'THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
COTTON...JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE...STEPHENS...SOUTHEASTERN
WICHITA AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 845 PM CDT...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...INCLUDING SEVERAL FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS IN
BOTH VELMA AND WAURIKA
.'
Just updated my Florida Blog if anyone is interested. Good read and one I think some might like.

Link
Base Radial Velocity

Finally getting a good rain band in Wilmington..

Quoting 243. Patrap:

Base Radial Velocity


Bad enough there is a tropical storm nearing the Carolina,s, but Ana is throwing spears at them too...this is bad....pfft
Seems she may be slowwwwwly drifting West. The dry air is still a huge problem for her. Wondering if she can make enough westward progress to get over the Gulf Stream during Dmax.

After looking at Recon fix, she seems to be aroun 32.2 and 77.4...That puts her right up against the Stream.

If Ana can take full advantage and become tropical and stronger as well as shift north in track, I could be in two hurricanes in the last ten months. But not visiting my mother this weekend would cause more devastation than the beach erosion.
Quoting 245. hydrus:

Bad enough there is a tropical storm nearing the Carolina,s, but Ana is throwing spears at them too...this is bad....pfft


Quoting 236. JrWeathermanFL:

Ana's forward speed?


The snail smoked Ana like a mullet hours ago JR...
251. beell
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell, thoughts on tomorrow's severe weather risk? Early morning convection is the only thing that I see that would prevent the day from producing a pretty significant outbreak. That said, the early morning convection could completely ruin the chances for an outbreak.

Easy forecast, lol.


To be honest, TA, I have not looked at a thing this evening. Just plain ole' lazy tonight. But I have faith that the dryline will produce. It will warm and clear along this boundary tomorrow afternoon.
Quoting 249. wxgeek723:




Ahem..scuse me, there is a difference between a jav and a spear...for God sake 723....
Quoting 250. hydrus:

The snail smoked Ana like a mullet hours ago JR...


Now that's funny hydrus. My Grandfather used to smoke Mullet. Was good stuff. Not something you eat for a meal, but snacking on pieces here and there.
Quoting 246. StormJunkie:

Seems she may be slowwwwwly drifting West. The dry air is still a huge problem for her. Wondering if she can make enough westward progress to get over the Gulf Stream during Dmax.




This reminds me of a TS that came through Tampa (for the life of me, I can't remember the name, or the year), that was completely absent of moisture. This isn't totally dry, but that one was a naked swirl of dry air. It was comical. We were under TS warnings with sunshine and not a drop of rain. Wish I could remember which one that was.
Quoting 253. StormJunkie:



Now that's funny hydrus. My Grandfather used to smoke Mullet. Was good stuff. Not something you eat for a meal, but snacking on pieces here and there.
I grew up on Captiva. Not only did we eat them 60 ways from Sunday, but get 12 cents a pound for,em.. And if they wernt around, it was 5 cents a pop for the pinfish we caught. The biggest catch of course was stone crab, which we snagged between $3.75 to $4.75 a pound. Member, this was over 35 years ago.
Quoting 254. nash36:



This reminds me of a TS that came through Tampa (for the life of me, I can't remember the name, or the year), that was completely absent of moisture. This isn't totally dry, but that one was a naked swirl of dry air. It was comical. We were under TS warnings with sunshine and not a drop of rain. Wish I could remember which one that was.


Barry 2007?
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell, thoughts on tomorrow's severe weather risk? Early morning convection is the only thing that I see that would prevent the day from producing a pretty significant outbreak. That said, the early morning convection could completely ruin the chances for an outbreak.

Easy forecast, lol.



things look golden for significant outbreak for the Dodge City, KS. area may be other i see really nothing on the rader in that area right now so things look really good in for area so far will have too see if this shows the same in the AM when we all wake up if it is we are golden for a significant outbreak
Quoting 256. CybrTeddy:



Debby 2012, Barry 2007?


Barry!!! That was it. I laughed myself stupid with that one. I think it was then that I realized I was a human dome. Lol. Ever since I left Dallas back in 2003, all promising, exciting weather magically shifts or disappears. All kidding aside, it does amaze me how incredibly severe storms hit I-95, then just go POOF before reaching the North Charleston area. Happens all the time.
Quoting 252. hydrus:

Ahem..scuse me, there is a difference between a jav and a spear...for God sake 723....


My apologies
Quoting 255. hydrus:

I grew up on Captiva. Not only did we eat them 60 ways from Sunday, but get 12 cents a pound for,em.. And if they wernt around, it was 5 cents a pop for the pinfish we caught. The biggest catch of course was stone crab, which we snagged between $3.75 to $4.75 a pound. Member, this was over 35 years ago.


Done right, Stone Crab claws are the best claws money can buy. Have to cook them fresh. No cooked, frozen, reheated nonsense. It was about 30 years ago I was eating mullet at grandparents. Right out the Folly River. Don't think we ever sold them though.
Quoting 251. beell:



To be honest, TA, I have not looked at a thing this evening. Just plain ole' lazy tonight. But I have faith that the dryline will produce. It will warm and clear along this boundary tomorrow afternoon.
Weather oxymoron's kill me. brutal severe storms with torrential rain at the "cough" dry line...Thats like a severe drizzle warning or somethin..
The dry air is like a swift kick in....

Quoting 260. StormJunkie:



Done right, Stone Crab claws are the best claws money can buy. Have to cook them fresh. No cooked, frozen, reheated nonsense. It was about 30 years ago I was eating mullet at grandparents. Right out the Folly River. Don't think we ever sold them though.
Kinda nice talking about home..We had the best seafood...snapper ( all kinds ) sugar trout ( virtually non existent now ) black grouper, flounder, gulf pinks, rainbow trout, triple tail, pompano..All cooked to perfection almost everyday. Onion rings, hush puppies , cole slaw, french fries, fresh coconuts, hot apple butter rum w/ cinnimon sticks on cold nights...life wuz good bra...:)...I forgot snook...:)
Quoting 263. StormJunkie:

The dry air is like a swift kick in....




Ya know....that sure looks a lot like a massive hook echo. Funny how if we saw THIS on land, we would be apoplectic. This over water, and we're seeing what's on Netflix. Lol.
Quoting 263. StormJunkie:

The dry air is like a swift kick in....




Or.... The Cincinnati Bearcats logo.
Quoting 259. wxgeek723:



My apologies

Thats wat i,m talkin bout...Javs are good, but do not have the speed and accuracy of a well crafted spear...I know, I have one sitting next to me right now thats over a hundred years old, and still could stick the wick on a candle at 20 paces.


What dry air? The center is now almost completely closed off with moisture and the large band of dry air from earlier in the day has all but vanished.

Look at it dilute and thin out...

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 09/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0501A CYCLONE
C. 09/0915Z
D. 32.0N 77.9W
E. 09/1100Z TO 09/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting 259. wxgeek723:



My apologies



Don't apologize wxgeek723. A javelin is a light spear. You were right all along :)
A blessed night to all...if i dont get some sleep,.....i wont get any...zzzz
Quoting 268. Doom2pro:



What dry air? The center is now almost completely closed off with moisture and the large band of dry air from earlier in the day has all but vanished.

Look at it dilute and thin out...




You're joking right? You mean you don't see that dry air being injected directly in to her center? I'm not saying that a drift W in to the heart of the GS couldn't help her insulate some from that dry, but she has to fire some convection first. This is fairly weak convection at the moment. The dry air is currently winning. Fights not over, but its the last rounds and Ana will have to land a knockout blow to win the battle. Which seems unlikely right now.

I'm not understanding the obsession with the dry air. Ana has continued to become better organized as convection wraps around and maintains itself over the center. With another day or so over the Gulf Stream, it wouldn't surprise me to see further intensification.

Thanks, beell.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TYPHOON DODONG
11:00 AM PhST May 9 2015
=====================
Typhoon "DODONG" has maintained its strength as it approaches the eastern coast of Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Dodong [NOUL] (958 hPa) located at 14.6N 125.9E or 210 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gustiness up to 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

SIGNAL WARNINGS

Signal Warning #3
Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
Moderate damage to medium- risk structures;
Light damage to low-risk structures
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed

Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing's); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.

There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted,
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.


Luzon region
=========
1. Cagayan
2. Isabela
3. Northern Aurora

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down


Luzon region
=========
1. Calayan and Babuyan Group of Island
2. Apayao
3. Kalinga
4. Mt. Province
5. Nueva Vizcaya
6. Ifugao
7. Rest of Aurora
8. Polillo Island
9. Catanduanes
10. Qurino

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.


Luzon region
============
1. Batanes
2. Abra
3 .Ilocos Sur
4. Ilocos Norte
5. Benguet
6 .Nueva Ecija
7. Quezon
8. Camarines Norte
9. Camarines Sur
10. Albay
11. Sorsogon

Visayas region
==========
1. Northern Samar

Additional Information
================
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 200 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is estimated to make landfall over the coast of Isabela-Cagayan area by Sunday early morning (May 10), will exit the landmass via Aparri, Cagayan by Sunday afternoon (May 10) and will exit PAR by Monday evening (May 11).

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Storm surges of up to 2.5 meters are possible over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Quezon and Isabela.

Fisher folks are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Visayas.

It is advised to refrain from outdoor activities particularly along beaches of the eastern section of Luzon starting today (May 9) until tomorrow (May10).

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5PM today.
275. beell
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Ana has intensified. The strongest winds were
measured in a band well to the east and northeast of the center.
The current intensity is set at 50 kt, a little below the highest
SFMR winds which are believed to be slightly rain-inflated.
The satellite presentation of Ana is still somewhat subtropical,
with almost all of the deep convection in a band over the northern
semicircle of the circulation. Moreover, observations from the
Hurricane Hunters indicate a radius of maximum winds of no less
than 50-60 n mi. Therefore Ana is still being designated as a
subtropical cyclone at this time. However, there is some indication
that deep convection is beginning to develop nearer to the center,
and this is a sign that the transition to a tropical cyclone may
occur not long from now.

Center fixes from the aircraft show a general northward drift of
350/2. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from
the previous package. Over the next few days, the presistent
blocking ridge to the north of Ana is forecast to break down and
shift eastward as a broad mid-tropospheric trough moves into
the U.S. Ohio Valley region. This evolution of the steering flow
should cause Ana to turn northwestward and then northward at a
slightly faster forward speed before crossing the coast in 36 to 48
hours. Beyond that time, the flow ahead of the trough should carry
Ana or its remnants northeastward at a substantially faster forward
speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and
also close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Dynamical and statistical/dynamical intensity model guidance do not
show much additional strengthening. In 24 hours or so, as Ana
moves northwest of the Gulf Stream, it should encounter
progressively cooler waters. This, along with the entrainment of
drier air, should lead to weakening. The official wind speed
forecast is fairly similar to the intensity model consensus. By 96
hours, the latest global model runs show the system degenerating
into an open trough as Ana's post-tropical remnants merge with a
large extratropical low over Atlantic Canada.

Forecaster Pasch
TA, she has done amazingly well considering the dry air. As for convection wrapping around, it's just not the case. Her center is still at the very least partially exposed and away from the "heaviest" convection if that is what you want to call it. And while she may appear to have a moisture field around her, dry air has continually found a channel in to the center and that is never a good thing for significant intensification. If she had less dry air to deal with, I have no doubt she could have made Cat 1 status. If she somehow, outside shot, manages to put on a convective burst during Dmax tonight, directly over her center and on all sides...There is still a chance she makes Cat 1.

But that does not change the fact that over all, the dry has been winning every round so far.
bl, if you put that part about dry air entrainment in bold caps, I might believe it more. ;-)
Quoting 276. StormJunkie:

TA, she has done amazingly well considering the dry air. As for convection wrapping around, it's just not the case. Her center is still at the very least partially exposed and away from the "heaviest" convection if that is what you want to call it. And while she may appear to have a moisture field around her, dry air has continually found a channel in to the center and that is never a good thing for significant intensification. If she had less dry air to deal with, I have no doubt she could have made Cat 1 status. If she somehow, outside shot, manages to put on a convective burst during Dmax tonight, directly over her center and on all sides...There is still a chance she makes Cat 1.

But that does not change the fact that over all, the dry has been winning every round so far.

You and I might have different definitions of winning. If the storm is strengthening, then I don't see how dry air could be winning this 'battle'. As far as convection wrapping around, it looks pretty clear to me based on the loop below. Throughout the afternoon, the center was completely devoid of convection with the heaviest activity to the northeast. And although the circulation isn't neatly tucked under a central dense overcast like you'd expect from a typical moderate tropical storm, it is at least partially covered. In addition, the heaviest convection has rotated to the northwest side.

Goodnight WU.

280. beell
Quoting 277. StormJunkie:

bl, if you put that part about dry air entrainment in bold caps, I might believe it more. ;-)


Well, you could interpret that as meaning "entrainment will increase" and lead to weakening (at that point). "In 24 hrs or so".
:)
Quoting 273. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not understanding the obsession with the dry air. Ana has continued to become better organized as convection wraps around and maintains itself over the center. With another day or so over the Gulf Stream, it wouldn't surprise me to see further intensification.

Thanks, beell.


No one was on my side either, but you were! Well, not really so much as seeing things as I saw them. But honestly, the dry air is not making it into the core with relaxing shear not helping it get in. Ana is continuing to get broader thunderstorms just about over the centre with a great structure.

She may well attain minimal hurricane status with this jump in organization. Yaaaay her.
Quoting 272. StormJunkie:



You're joking right? You mean you don't see that dry air being injected directly in to her center? I'm not saying that a drift W in to the heart of the GS couldn't help her insulate some from that dry, but she has to fire some convection first. This is fairly weak convection at the moment. The dry air is currently winning. Fights not over, but its the last rounds and Ana will have to land a knockout blow to win the battle. Which seems unlikely right now.




Actually in the last frame of what the prior commenter posted, I saw the dry air closest to the centre get pushed out by some new convection and disperse a bit, I think Ana is winning the battle for now.
Quoting 278. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You and I might have different definitions of winning. If the storm is strengthening, then I don't see how dry air could be winning this 'battle'. As far as convection wrapping around, it looks pretty clear to me based on the loop below. Throughout the afternoon, the center was completely devoid of convection with the heaviest activity to the northeast. And although the circulation isn't neatly tucked under a central dense overcast like you'd expect from a typical moderate tropical storm, it is at least partially covered. In addition, the heaviest convection has rotated to the northwest side.




Don't use the "Pretty" loop for determining health of system. I give you points for not using the rainbow though. That band to her south is very weak right now, but arguably the most interesting thing. If it can expand/increase intensity then maybe she can start to build a CDO. I am not saying she can't put on a show. Only that it is unlikely due to dry air. Other than dry air, she has a pretty good environment. But it only takes one element to disrupt a developing system. Back to not looking at only the pretty images...Look at the difference in how these make the storm look...The uglier ones are the more realistic depiction of the status and situation of Ana.







Also of note is that inverted V just to the NNE of her center...That is being caused by the dry air getting sucked right through the center. Not a good thing for a system to build a CDO.
Quoting 257. Tazmanian:




things look golden for significant outbreak for the Dodge City, KS. area may be other i see really nothing on the rader in that area right now so things look really good in for area so far will have too see if this shows the same in the AM when we all wake up if it is we are golden for a significant outbreak


Damn Taz..... proud of you! Either you learned how to spell, or how to use a spell checker! LOL
I agree with StormJunkie. The dry air is inhibiting Ana's development. Ana does not look pretty--convection is absent for 200 degrees around the center. Proximity to the Gulf Stream is helpful but the heat content is marginal even there. Water in the upper 70s just doesn't throw out as much water vapor as water in the mid to upper 80s, like we would see in August. The dry air can't be mixed out as effectively. That's part of why named systems in the first half of May are rare.

I think Ana is doing incredibly well given the time of year and the dry air near and on the south side of the storm. Ana may even strengthen another 5 knots overnight as the center gets directly over the Gulf Stream. But it's an asymmetrical, middle strength subtropical storm.

Advantage, StormJunkie

I still like ya, Cody.
thel...00z models may have shifted a tad S. Look to be showing just S of MYB again. May put you in the "dirty" sector.
To make my point clear, I'm not saying dry air isn't inhibiting development. It is. What I'm saying is that dry air is not completely arresting intensification. And I think people are expecting too much out of its appearance. Ana is in the final stages of transitioning from a subtropical storm. It looks like many subtropical storms that have transitioned to fully tropical storms in the past have. I don't expect this thing to blow up over the next 24 hours; however, I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen by 5-10 mph either.

Quoting 287. StormJunkie:

thel...00z models may have shifted a tad S. Look to be showing just S of MYB again. May put you in the "dirty" sector.


No sweat Bro..... plenty of beer onhand! ;)

The models have been switching back and forth on the landfall point. I believe between the state line and wilmington will get the brunt. Remember Long Beach? Seems like a prime location! ;)

Littly bitty dry air - that may not be getting to the center.

UGH. How come I can't (post-a-) loop the Ramsdis wvl in Html 5?

Oh well.
Click on the goes east flash loop on this page if you want to see what I was seein' with the dry aire.
Quoting 207. Stormchaser2007:



The dry air is creating downbursts which is the reason that we're seeing FL winds near 72 knots and surface winds to near hurricane force. With the cold UL atmosphere and warm Gulf Stream, I would expect modest strengthening to possibly strong TS status by tomorrow. This isn't your typical tropical system and the dynamics involved are much more complicated.

You can't just broadbrush the situation by saying "oh look, some dry air, it'll weaken"


I agree, but at the same time, those same factors will cap it's intensity if it doesn't moisten the column more. If it doesn't become more purely tropical, it will stop strengthening, bulk latent heat release is just too limited in this situation thanks to the relative lack of moisture for a tropical system.

Check out the PW imagery, this is unusually low PW for a tropical system:



And normally, a tropical system in all cases I've seen will have PW's in the 2.3-2.6 inch range, and that includes tropical systems that struggle with inner core issues due to a dry layer.

It only takes a small dry layer to lead to enhancing outflow boundary development, cold pools, and limitations of latent heat. How much more is dry air an issue with a system where bulk moisture(total PW) is abnormally low for this time of year.


Now, I'm not saying it can't get stronger, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 70 mph, all I'm saying is that Ana won't rapidly intensify into a serious hurricane anytime soon, which of course you're aware of lol.
Quoting 289. thelmores:




No sweat Bro..... plenty of beer onhand! ;)

The models have been switching back and forth on the landfall point. I believe between the state line and wilmington will get the brunt. Remember Long Beach? Seems like a prime location! ;)


So long ago that seems. I'm getting old...I don't even remember the name of the storm.

BFOTR, Good to see you. That dry air is getting to the center. It may not show up on WV since WV can't truly discern the "levels". If it wasn't for that dry air, I have little doubt we'd see Cat 1. And even as is, Ana is impressive for this early.
Very small bits of of very weak convection firing on the S side. Wonder if they can take hold. Also notice her very flat top...She has no where to go but due W for the moment.

ATL: Ana is getting stronger slowly. NC/SC be on the look out.
West Pack: TS Dolphin is getting organized and Typhoon Noul nears the Philippines as it restrengthens.

Read more here
Evening Jed.

Nice post by both you and 07...Some of it over my head, but I was just thinking about how important actual SST was if the atmosphere was still x degrees cooler.
AhNah's about half dressed up with no where to go. The latter being the larger trouble for development. She can't get away from land.

But what do I know? I'm just passing time till 1 a.m. convective outlook shows up.
;)
1 Day, Magnitude 2.5+ Worldwide
17 earthquakes - Download
Updated: 2015-05-09 05:01:08 UTC
Showing event times using UTC
17 earthquakes total globally last 24 hrs

maybe this is a sign we won't have anymore
Late greetings,
Actually quite surprised the NHC hasn't yet leaped onto the "tropical storm transition" bandwagon they (and many) seem so eager to… Satellite presentation and upper air analysis largely indicate structurally it's still very much a subtropical storm - regardless of evidence of low level warm core or how much convection it begins maintaining closer to it's center.

Designating subtropical / tropical and transition always brings up the argument of what characteristic most distinguishes a subtropical from tropical storm. And the most important criteria - to me, anyway - is whether the low level cyclone is primarily under the influence of an anticyclone aloft or an upper low trough. And while we've seen a slight shift in vertical orientation, Ana remains co-located under a cold-core ULL's influence.

Surface Wind Field and 250 mb Wind Field.

Ana looks fairly typical of many US SE coast subtropical storms in all it's characteristics - developmental struggles, ingesting an abundance of dry air, difficulty maintaining convective consistency.
I say Ana is now 99%-100% tropical
Ana looks quite frail. Quite a punch of dry air in the 700mb-500mb layer. Maybe the start of weakening.

So, based on comments below, Ana is very likely a tropical storm even though it looks like a subtropical storm, it's moving north while also moving west while also remaining stationary, and dry air may or may not be weakening the storm although intensification is possible tonight. ;)
Quoting 300. Drakoen:

Ana looks quite frail. Quite a punch of dry air in the 700mb-500mb layer. Maybe the start of weakening.




Geeks you guys downplay Ana badly

There is not a ton of dry air in the system
And convection ain't building because we had DMin and we are on our way to DMax so chill
Overall it's getting its act together
Quoting 301. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So, based on comments below, Ana is very likely a tropical storm even though it looks like a subtropical storm, it's moving north while also moving west while also remaining stationary, and dry air may or may not be weakening the storm although intensification is possible tonight. ;)


Lol

Folks down casting this evening wow.
No way in hades is ana tropical. I'm surprised she's at 60 mph (though i doubt she'll be a hurricane) though. However, she's ingesting too much dry air, no outflow aloft, most of the convection is north through northeast of the center, stuff like that.
Quoting 301. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So, based on comments below, Ana is very likely a tropical storm even though it looks like a subtropical storm, it's moving north while also moving west while also remaining stationary, and dry air may or may not be weakening the storm although intensification is possible tonight. ;)


It's only confusing if you don't know what you're talking about. ;)
LOL, the debate over subtropical / tropical determination is an old one not easily resolved.
In decades past many of these oddballs were either just casually referenced as a non-tropical / semi-tropical gale low, later as a hybrid semi-tropical systems called neutercanes.

Anyway, addition to post #298 -
In geographical contrast, subtropical storms over the N Gulf region often have a reputation quite the opposite to those that develop off the US SE coast, such as notable heavy flooding received from STS Lee 2011 and Allison 2001. Which brings me back to the point that determining subtropical to tropical transition by observing convective consolidation around a storm's center or breadth of wind radii - as being rather arbitrary criteria for making such a determination. Subtropical storms often do produce banding, centralized convection same as any TS.

For example, note the hvy convection around the center of Subtropical Storm Lee after it transitioned from sheared TS to fully subtropical (at landfall over Louisiana), similarly co-located under an ULL.



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

...ANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...
...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
I think Cody needs to drive to Hampstead and give us live updates from the beach!
Quoting 309. BaltimoreBrian:

I think Cody needs to drive to Hampstead and give us live updates from the beach!


And take the boat into Ana!
Quoting 309. BaltimoreBrian:

I think Cody needs to drive to Hampstead and give us live updates from the beach!

Too tired. Time for bed lol.
Drakoen when I was 3 years younger than Cody is now I surfed in the middle of the night during Hurricane Gloria and had a pressure of 28.30" while I was surfing at 3 a.m. :)
Heres an interesting weather question for people here. What is the highest SPC convective risk that has ever been
forecast for anywhere in California? I've never seen more than a slight risk, and I'm wondering if anyone has ever seen any higher risk level.


For today, so far no high risk, and in-fact the Moderate area has been reduced in area from the Day 2 Prediction


really liking the pattern here in California for the next few weeks... below average temperatures, and Troughs instead of Ridging.... hopefully this continues for a while.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
15:00 PM JST May 9 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 4.1N 162.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 7.0N 160.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
15:00 PM JST May 9 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Noul (950 hPa) located at 14.9N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 17.8N 122.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.3N 122.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 27.2N 129.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea South of Okinawa
NWS Tiyan Guam
Tropical Storm (NONAME) 07W
============================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for Kosrae
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for Pingelap and Mokil in Pohnpei State

A TYPHOON WATCH is in effect for Pohnpei and Pakin in Pohnpei State


000
WTNT21 KNHC 090840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
0900 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 77.6W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 77.6W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.3N 78.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 39.0N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 77.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC now has Ana classified as fully tropical. Track shifted slightly north as well. Has us where I am just south of fayetteville getting the north and NE quads as she comes ashore then turns, still maintaining ts strength and running right over us here. Should be an interesting weekend!
RECON REPORTING
DEPARTED KBIX
EN ROUTE TO TROPICAL STORM ANA
Quoting 319. tropicalnewbee:

NHC now has Ana classified as fully tropical. Track shifted slightly north as well. Has us where I am just south of fayetteville getting the north and NE quads as she comes ashore then turns, still maintaining ts strength and running right over us here. Should be an interesting weekend!


Im in wilmington. no comment
Quoting 315. nwobilderburg:



really liking the pattern here in California for the next few weeks... below average temperatures, and Troughs instead of Ridging.... hopefully this continues for a while.


Now wait a minute, I was told in WU that the rainy season for California was over! no rain or snow, no snow pack, armageddon was around the corner, looks like mother nature has her own mind like with every other weather event!
K8eCane:

I am at Carolina Beach---you can go to surfchex.com and see what is going on presently. KB has a complete weather station at the pier house---and cam that moves for pretty full views. Showing gusts in 30+ range and peak of 46 about an hour ago.

Rain has let up for now---waiting for my paper to get here:-)

You stay safe over there---least it is light now and we can see outside!!
Off masonboro sound here on Wilmington. Looks like I won't be mowing the grass today. Breezy with spots of rain. Sun is peeking out at the moment.
Impressive.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-46.94
Yea, no mowing today, Brock Maybe not before Tuesday or Wed. Lucky this time. I had mine mowed yesterday. VERY hard to clean up small yard debris. Stay safe--flooding 'could ' be an issue--around Wilmington
Quoting 326. Tigerosee:
Yea, no mowing today, Brock Maybe not before Tuesday or Wed. Lucky this time. I had mine mowed yesterday. VERY hard to clean up small yard debris. Stay safe--flooding 'could ' be an issue--around Wilmington


Maybe not as there is not much widespread rain with ANA looks very scattered ATM.

Infact looks to be weakening now. Not even enough wind to knock over a lawn chair.



Quoting 314. nwobilderburg:



For today, so far no high risk, and in-fact the Moderate area has been reduced in area from the Day 2 Prediction


We'll have to see how the day plays out. So far this week the SPC has had some trouble knowing which day/days will produce the most severe weather.
Wednesday was the worst day of the week and it was only an "Enhanced" outlook day.
Now these folks in Texas are getting the "real deal".

I have had .60 since midnight---live middle of the island. Just had another down pour. As long as it keeps swirling around ---going to be this way. No movement inland for about 24-36 hours --that's the call by our NWS. I have had enough already!!
Quoting 329. StormTrackerScott:

Now these folks in Texas are getting the "real deal".


If there were any signs of drought left in Mid Texas, I believe they will disappear in short order...The flooding will be serious.
Well good morning Ana... she sure did a good job overnight with surrounding herself with convection in all four quadrants:

Quoting 331. hydrus:

If there were any signs of drought left in Mid Texas, I believe they will disappear in short order...The flooding will be serious.

Morning, hydrus.


(Source)
From SPC Storm Reports for 5/8/15:

Bearden, OK (Okfuskee County)

'OBLONG HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE 5 INCHES BY 3 INCHES WAS PHOTOGRAPHED AND SENT ON SOCIAL MEDIA. (TSA)'

Tried to find a photo, but no luck. My 'social media' skills aren't the best...

Quoting 333. LAbonbon:


Morning, hydrus.


(Source)
Howdy Bon...More rough stuff out there today, and an early season tropical storm to boot. I should mention on the current trend, Nino actually could be big news before too long. I wonder how it will be influenced by the odd world pattern, or vice versa.
I see Ana put a skirt on.



And Noul is visiting the Philippines...I bet there thrilled about this.

Wife and I were watching the bands come on shore last night at Cherry Grove,SC.People here don't seem the least bit concerned,as many were letting their small children go into the water shoulder deep.
Quoting 312. BaltimoreBrian:

Drakoen when I was 3 years younger than Cody is now I surfed in the middle of the night during Hurricane Gloria and had a pressure of 28.30" while I was surfing at 3 a.m. :)
Pressure that low can pop ur ears...Charley did this...Very uncomfortable for Florida folks who were not use to it.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/09/15 1003Z


Excerpt:

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1015-1300Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MAIN FF THREAT OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE (INVOF BRISCOE/HALL) WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS. QUICK CELL MVMNT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAINFALL AMNTS TO .5" OR LESS BUT AS CNVTN FILLS IN AND INCRS CHC FOR REPEAT ACTIVITY SOME LOCAL AMNTS OF 1-2" PSBL THIS PD.



Quoting 338. bittykitty:

Wife and I were watching the bands come on shore last night at Cherry Grove,SC.People here don't seem the least bit concerned,as many were letting their small children go into the water shoulder deep.
Letting kids in there isnt wise. Experienced swimmers usually can swim it. I used to surf in some really bad conditions if the break was good...still has risks tho...Got hurt bad a couple times.
Quoting 341. hydrus:

Letting kids in there isnt wise. Experienced swimmers usually can swim it. I used to surf in some really bad conditions if the break was good...still has risks tho...Got hurt bad a couple times.

My wife grew up in Surfside,and went through every storm from '75-98.I had to keep her from yanking them out of the water herself.Sadly,no beach patrol in sight and people won't listen if you don't have a uniform or badge.Been through it.The woman I assume was their mother was drinking a mixed drink from a plastic cup and cheering them on.
Quoting 342. bittykitty:


My wife grew up in Surfside,and went through every storm from '75-98.I had to keep her from yanking them out of the water herself.Sadly,no beach patrol in sight and people won't listen if you don't have a uniform or badge.Been through it.The woman I assume was their mother was drinking a mixed drink from a plastic cup and cheering them on.
I have seen my share of reckless behavior out there. Some lost there lives. On Captiva Island ( S.W.FL ) there were two surfers who went in at Blind Pass, this was many years ago, but we knew it was very dangerous to swim or surf there. My best friend, who is 6 foot 5 inches and 260 lbs , swam out with his board to save one that was in trouble, the other was not found until four days later near the marina i lived at. Some people should listen, especially folks who have lived the area for generations, not to go out.
Quoting 341. hydrus:

Letting kids in there isnt wise. Experienced swimmers usually can swim it. I used to surf in some really bad conditions if the break was good...still has risks tho...Got hurt bad a couple times.


I've surfed pretty much every Tropical Storm and Hurricane in the GOM or East Coast of Fl. We use the strong rip next to the pier to help us get to the outside. Sometimes the rip is so strong you don't even have to paddle and you're moving at about 5 mph out to sea.

But on the other hand, we had someone drown yesterday in relatively calm conditions. They swam/walked out to the second sandbar to fish and then the tide came in. One man was unable to make it back to the beach and this was in basically calm/small surf conditions.
Body pulled from water at Collier County beach

Link
346. yoboi
Quoting 322. trunkmonkey:



Now wait a minute, I was told in WU that the rainy season for California was over! no rain or snow, no snow pack, armageddon was around the corner, looks like mother nature has her own mind like with every other weather event!


Just a normal cycle they have been going thru for thousands of years......
By the looks of it
RECON found pressure up to 1002mb and looks like winds are a bit weaker
I'm guessing this is due the decrease in convection and its intensity when it made its full transition to Tropical
But convection starting to rebuild
But now again convection is on the SE side of the LLCOC
But that should be covered back as convection rebuilds
Now the window soon to start closing for Ana
If she wants to "make a name for herself" she better get her act together quick
Got up for the dawn patrol this morning, but the winds have too much E in them. Wrightsville Beach is sideshore victory at sea conditions. Made judgment call and went back to bed. I was about to head to Brunswick County beaches, but I still think too much E in the winds even there. Ana hugged the coast too much to be a prolific quality surf producer. 100 more miles out to sea and it would have been a different story.

Folly Beach, SC has clean conditions, but the surf is about knee high. Link

All is not lost perhaps. If Ana Banana shoots a little north, Brunswick County beaches may get a window of offshore winds. Even possibly Cherry Grove, SC which was 2X overhead and holding as both Sandy and Irene passed. This evening could be chest to head high and clean...long lefts.

Here in Florence breezy and cloudy. Winds should continue to pick up throughout day. Could use the rain.



Quoting 323. Tigerosee:

K8eCane:

I am at Carolina Beach---you can go to surfchex.com and see what is going on presently. KB has a complete weather station at the pier house---and cam that moves for pretty full views. Showing gusts in 30+ range and peak of 46 about an hour ago.

Rain has let up for now---waiting for my paper to get here:-)

You stay safe over there---least it is light now and we can see outside!!

Quoting 347. wunderkidcayman:

By the looks of it
RECON found pressure up to 1002mb and looks like winds are a bit weaker
I'm guessing this is due the decrease in convection and its intensity when it made its full transition to Tropical
But convection starting to rebuild
But now again convection is on the SE side of the LLCOC
But that should be covered back as convection rebuilds
Now the window soon to start closing for Ana
If she wants to "make a name for herself" she better get her act together quick


Colder water closer to the coast could start becoming an issue.
Quoting 349. HaoleboySurfEC:

Got up for the dawn patrol this morning, but the winds have too much E in them. Wrightsville Beach is sideshore victory at sea conditions. Made judgment call and went back to bed. I was about to head to Brunswick County beaches, but I still think too much E in the winds even there. Ana hugged the coast too much to be a prolific quality surf producer. 100 more miles out to sea and it would have been a different story.

Folly Beach, SC has clean conditions, but the surf is about knee high. Link

All is not lost perhaps. If Ana Banana shoots a little north, Brunswick County beaches may get a window of offshore winds. Even possibly Cherry Grove, SC which was 2X overhead and holding as both Sandy and Irene passed. This evening could be chest to head high and clean...long lefts.

Here in Florence breezy and cloudy. Winds should continue to pick up throughout day. Could use the rain.






so you drive about 2 hours to Brunswick County to surf from Florence?
Quoting 349. HaoleboySurfEC:

Got up for the dawn patrol this morning, but the winds have too much E in them. Wrightsville Beach is sideshore victory at sea conditions. Made judgment call and went back to bed. I was about to head to Brunswick County beaches, but I still think too much E in the winds even there. Ana hugged the coast too much to be a prolific quality surf producer. 100 more miles out to sea and it would have been a different story.

Folly Beach, SC has clean conditions, but the surf is about knee high. Link

All is not lost perhaps. If Ana Banana shoots a little north, Brunswick County beaches may get a window of offshore winds. Even possibly Cherry Grove, SC which was 2X overhead and holding as both Sandy and Irene passed. This evening could be chest to head high and clean...long lefts.

Here in Florence breezy and cloudy. Winds should continue to pick up throughout day. Could use the rain.




Long lefts..An absolute pleasure for my goofy foot technique...
Quoting 352. Sfloridacat5:


Thats gettin close to wet suit stuff...Me blood is thin
Glad the wind was NNE yesterday morning. Thursday afternoon as well. Got some offshore,good surf at a protected spot close by.

Had a feeling winds were going to be problematic today. Shoulders are still sore, so no complaints here.

Quoting 351. ncstorm:



so you drive about 2 hours to Brunswick County to surf from Florence?
he would probably surf the trip, but the swim out is pretty far..:)...Greetings NC
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (1507)
21:00 PM JST May 9 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (1002 hPa) located at 4.8N 162.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 6.8N 160.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 8.8N 157.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
72 HRS: 9.9N 155.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
21:00 PM JST May 9 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Noul (940 hPa) located at 15.4N 124.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 18.5N 122.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 22.1N 122.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 27.8N 131.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
Quoting 355. Brock31:

Glad the wind was NNE yesterday morning. Thursday afternoon as well. Got some offshore,good surf at a protected spot close by.

Had a feeling winds were going to be problematic today. Shoulders are still sore, so no complaints here.


I havnt snagged a good wave in 15 years..I would need a 10 foot board to get my groove back...I could carve in my younger days.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

...ANA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 77.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should
monitor the progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 77.8 West. Ana is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today as Ana
continues to approach the coastline, and then a turn to the north
and northeast is expected near and after the time of landfall. On
the forecast track, the center will be very near the coasts of South
and North Carolina by Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher
gusts. A weakening trend is expected as Ana moves over
cooler waters close to the coastline.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or
evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to
3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Quoting 351. ncstorm:



so you drive about 2 hours to Brunswick County to surf from Florence?


nc, nice to see you. Heck yeah, but only if I think it is worth it. All the decent breaks are 2 -2 1/2 hours away from me. Wrightsville, Holden, Folly. Got to be picky though. Myrtle Beach is much closer but probably the worst stretch of coastline between Florida and Maine for surfing, although it is a good place for my boy to learn.

Have pretty much surfed every decent break between New Smyrna, FL and Scarborough, ME at one point or another. Just a weekend warrior now :-( Very difficult to reconcile the hardcore surfer of my youth with the demands of a career. Constant struggle.
Quoting 358. hydrus:

I havnt snagged a good wave in 15 years..I would need a 10 foot board to get my groove back...I could carve in my younger days.


I got me an 8' a few years back. I was always a short board guy (6'4" boards or so). But watching these kids and older guys catching these knee high waves made me get a long board. It's really fun to ride when the surf is small and the short board just doesn't cut it.
Quoting 361. Sfloridacat5:



I got my an 8' a few years back. I was always a short board guy (6'4" boards or so). But watching these kids and older guys catching these knee high waves made me get a long board. It's really fun to ride when the surf is small and the short board just doesn't cut it.
Especially on the gulf side. way too long between opportunities. I still have my 6 foot Town and Country I bought in 1986. Hand shaped and signed by Ben Aipa...It is still gorgeous..:)
Looks like the SPC has dropped the moderate risk for today.
Quoting 358. hydrus:

I havnt snagged a good wave in 15 years..I would need a 10 foot board to get my groove back...I could carve in my younger days.


I've got a 9'6"...
Quoting 363. hydrus:

Especially on the gulf side. way too long between opportunities. I still have my 6 foot Town and Country I bought in 1986. Hand shaped and signed by Ben Aipa...It is still gorgeous..:)


Wow, that is a keeper. Aipa is quite the surfer as well as shaper. He is a powerful guy, strong legs so he always put a lot of thickness in his boards.
Quoting 367. HaoleboySurfEC:



Wow, that is a keeper. Aipa is quite the surfer as well as shaper. He is a powerful guy, strong legs so he always put a lot of thickness in his boards.
He is still shaping. He must be gettin up in years. He was competing in the 60,s.
My main short board is a Linden and it's about 20 years old. I've also got a bunch of Rusty surfboards, but they're really beat up. I keep them just in case I have company or friends in town and someone needs something to play with.
Woke up to a fully tropical system, but I'm off to the Triad for the weekend here in a bit. Have fun with Ana, and play nice and safe.
Quoting 369. Sfloridacat5:

My main short board is a Linden and it's about 20 years old. I've also got a bunch of Rusty surfboards, but they're really beat up. I keep them just in case I have company or friends in town and someone needs something to play with.
.Never heard of a Linden. Good friend of mine has a Rusty from the Mid 80,s .Very good board. Here is a neat piece about Aipa. I did not know he weighed 240...no wonder he shaped them thick with funky tails...:)....Link
Quoting 371. hydrus:

.Never heard of a Linden. Good friend of mine has a Rusty from the Mid 80,s .Very good board. Here is a neat piece about Aipa. I did not know he weighed 240...no wonder he shaped them thick with funky tails...:)....Link


Pretty cool
Gary Linden is a very well known West Coast shaper. He's also an old timer that's been around a long time.
Link
Ana is certainly not the largest tropical storm we've tracked.

Quoting 372. Sfloridacat5:



Pretty cool
Gary Linden is a very well known West Coast shaper. He's also an old timer that's been around a long time.
Link
very impressive looking boards..Blond is cute..:)
375. jeffB
Wow. I just made the mistake of trying to comment from Firefox -- unresponsive script messages everywhere, and I apparently managed to post a blank message by accident, which I'm trying to edit now.
In any event, my question: is anyone else having any luck with the non-Classic links for Discussions or Public Advisories here? When I click them, in either Safari or Firefox, I just land on a page with recent statistics.
Is this yet another thing that I'll have to find at another website from now on?
Quoting 347. wunderkidcayman:

By the looks of it
RECON found pressure up to 1002mb and looks like winds are a bit weaker
I'm guessing this is due the decrease in convection and its intensity when it made its full transition to Tropical
But convection starting to rebuild
But now again convection is on the SE side of the LLCOC
But that should be covered back as convection rebuilds
Now the window soon to start closing for Ana
If she wants to "make a name for herself" she better get her act together quick


RECON mission completed heading home but not before finding pressure down to 1001mb
convection starting to blow up and spread out
the low level structure becoming much more organized
also it appears that Ana's LLCOC is moving W now as seen on floater and Hi-Res vis loop
it could be that the LLCOC is looping around to go under the deepest convection
if this is indeed then case it will go back into warmer waters of the gulf stream and stay there longer and whilst under the deep convection it could very likely restrengthen and maybe become stronger than it has ever been
Quoting 373. CybrTeddy:

Ana is certainly not the largest tropical storm we've tracked.


No, but it is looking like a bona fide T.S. now.....Sheared as it may be..Mornin Ted...
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

Satellite and NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that Ana has likely
made the transition to a tropical cyclone based on the rapid decay
of a previously persistent band of outer convection, recent
development of inner-core convection within 30-40 nmi of the
center, and weak anticyclonic outflow. Between 0500-0700 UTC,
average Doppler velocities of 58-60 kt with isolated peak values of
63 kt were noted between 8,000-10,000 ft and within 30-40 dBZ
echoes, which would correspond to about 53-54 kt surface winds.
However, since that time, that outer band has weakened considerably,
so the initial intensity will remain at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate using a 12-hour motion is 340/03 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. The global and regional models are in very good
agreement that Tropical Storm Ana will move slowly toward the
north-northwest or northwest for the next 36 hours or so, followed
by a gradual turn toward the north and northeast ahead of an
approaching deep-layer trough. By 72 hours, Ana is expected to
become extratropical and be absorbed by a much larger extratropical
low pressure system by 96 hours
. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the multi-model
consensus TVCN.

The center and inner-core region of Ana currently lie along the
axis of warmest Gulf Stream water of about 25C. Although inner-core
convection has been developing during the past few hours, it is
occurring in a region where the last recon flight only found winds
of 30-40 kt at the surface and around 45 kt at flight-level. As a
result, there could be some fluctuations in Ana's intensity in the
near term this morning. By 12-24 hours, the cyclone's slow forward
speed will take it over much cooler shelf waters. The combination of
SSTs around 20C-22C and continued entrainment of mid-level dry air
should induce at least slow weakening until landfall occurs.

Although inland at 36 and 48 hours, the intensity has been held up
slightly in anticipation of a band of stronger winds lying just
offshore. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
intensity consensus model ICON.
382. JRRP
Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 1 hHace 1 hora
The equatorial westerlies not as strong as 1997-- May 97 burst farther east as well. More CPac event than 97? (2/2)
Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 1 hHace 1 hora
@hombredeltiempo I don't think this oceanic kelvin wave is done with the SAmerica warming but 1997's was stronger.
Quoting 377. wunderkidcayman:



RECON mission completed heading home but not before finding pressure down to 1001mb
convection starting to blow up and spread out
the low level structure becoming much more organized
also it appears that Ana's LLCOC is moving W now as seen on floater and Hi-Res vis loop
it could be that the LLCOC is looping around to go under the deepest convection
if this is indeed then case it will go back into warmer waters of the gulf stream and stay there longer and whilst under the deep convection it could very likely restrengthen and maybe become stronger than it has ever been


looking at the two VORTEX messages looked like movement was SW
Quoting 382. JRRP:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1 hHace 1 hora
The equatorial westerlies not as strong as 1997-- May 97 burst farther east as well. More CPac event than 97? (2/2)
I hope so..If all that energy hit the N.W.coast of South America, there will be huge problems...I hate to even think about it.
Quoting 381. Patrap:


She is still gettin some warm water...Greeting Pat..
Good Morning everyone. I wanted to bring up a point on the SAL. The Saharan Air Layer in the last several years is significantly suppressing Hurricane development. We hear about El Nino suppresses and La Nina enhances development of tropical cyclones. This year Forecasters say below average tropical cyclone development is to occur because of the moderate to Strong El Nino forecast to develop. But the MAIN driver of Hurricane development in my opinion is the SAL or Saharan air layer. Looking back even when we had an environment in the MDR of the Atlantic we had this overbearing SAL that choked all possible tropical cyclone development. I believe this has to be a signal of climate change, just an opinion because more factual evidence is needed. But we all hear year after year about the SAL covering the MDR of the Atlantic and the Caribbean. Really since 2008, the whole dynamics of the Atlantic basin seemed to have changed to a more dry, hot SAL environment. If you are a fan of hurricanes like me, this is the Bane of your Existence, or if you are not a fan of Hurricanes you are doing cartwheels in the streets. In conclusion I believe the Saharan Air Layer is not equated when determining Hurricane forecasts which is a huge mistake. I do applaud Dr. Masters for displaying the SAL because this is of utmost significance for forecasting tropical cyclones, since I can't another media avenue or weather forecast that do.
Quoting 382. JRRP:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1 hHace 1 hora
The equatorial westerlies not as strong as 1997-- May 97 burst farther east as well. More CPac event than 97? (2/2)


ok...so...?...this...means...what...?

No strong apocalyptic El Nino for Scott!!! lol!!! JK
Quoting 382. JRRP:

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 1 hHace 1 hora
The equatorial westerlies not as strong as 1997-- May 97 burst farther east as well. More CPac event than 97? (2/2)
Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 1 hHace 1 hora
@hombredeltiempo I don't think this oceanic kelvin wave is done with the SAmerica warming but 1997's was stronger.


yeah not surprised
389. JRRP
Quoting 384. hydrus:

I hope so..If all that energy hit the N.W.coast of South America, there will be huge problems...I hate to even think about it.
yeah me too
Quoting 387. wunderkidcayman:



ok...so...?...this...means...what...?

No strong apocalyptic El Nino for Scott!!! lol!!! JK

lol.. well is early to say how strong it will be
updated Hi-Res Vis on Ana shows LLCOC now moving S thus my theory of LLCOC spinning around to get tucked under convection seems to be holding true
Convection is quite impressive across the Southern Plains this morning.
Quoting 375. jeffB:

Wow. I just made the mistake of trying to comment from Firefox -- unresponsive script messages everywhere, and I apparently managed to post a blank message by accident, which I'm trying to edit now.
In any event, my question: is anyone else having any luck with the non-Classic links for Discussions or Public Advisories here? When I click them, in either Safari or Firefox, I just land on a page with recent statistics.
Is this yet another thing that I'll have to find at another website from now on?
I am having issues here to. Moving too slow. I have a new Acer computer and keyboard, but still loading slowly.
hydrus, not a computer expert, but I'm guessing the keyboard is not the problem :)
advisory for 11am is unchanged
Quoting 391. Sfloridacat5:

Convection is quite impressive across the Southern Plains this morning.



A good/bad thing based on ones perspective. The atmo will take time to recover - probably the reason behind SPC downgrading to enhanced from moderate.
Quoting 385. hydrus:

She is still gettin some warm water...Greeting Pat..


Morn' over dere.

Ana's shows us 2015 will have its own way with us.
Quoting 388. wunderkidcayman:


yeah not surprised


The event looks stronger than 1997 but what Eric Blake is saying is that it looks more Central based. No 2 El-Nino's are the same but either way this still could surpass 1997 which is what many are eluding too.

Let's see, Jeff ought to post a new blog about time I post this.
;)

NHC - "Although inner-core convection has been developing during the past few hours, it is occurring in a region where the last recon flight only found winds of 30-40 kt at the surface and around 45 kt at flight-level."
Right… despite increasing convection around it, strongest winds remain well away from center. About minimal TS winds near center. And I found the rest of their reasoning for their "likely" TS transition call as tenuous as the meager outflow streak noted. Sure the outer band degraded rapidly - another victim of dry air. Oh well.. IMHO, overall the only structural changes of significance is the upper trof that Ana remains within has shifted a bit more to the E / NE, putting Ana's fresh inner convection under NLY / NWLY shear, shunting most of it it to the S / SE of center. Although, it's still maintaining convection on it's E / SE quad, the LLC is half exposed, almost going Naked and Afraid again.

Eric Blake‏@EricBlake12
.@MJVentrice @hombredeltiempo Agree-- Also the ewd progression of the WWB is important. 1997/2015 very similar today


Now this is what is important and that is the atmheric response which is much greater that 1997 at this time. What we are about to see is significant warming across Nino 3.4 the like we've never seen before once these strong WWB arrive.

Michael Ventrice‏@MJVentrice·2h2 hours ago
@hombredeltiempo @EricBlake12 AEI was +0.2 sigma on this day in 1997. At 1 sigma already. Stronger atmos response. pic.twitter.com/CCfzxsaSzH
There is very good correlation between May WWB's and the more intense Nino's that become stronger. The atmosphere and ocean are coupled unlike 2014 at this time.

Quoting 375. jeffB:

Wow. I just made the mistake of trying to comment from Firefox -- unresponsive script messages everywhere, and I apparently managed to post a blank message by accident, which I'm trying to edit now.
In any event, my question: is anyone else having any luck with the non-Classic links for Discussions or Public Advisories here? When I click them, in either Safari or Firefox, I just land on a page with recent statistics.
Is this yet another thing that I'll have to find at another website from now on?

Firefox works great for me on this site with these extensions:

Adblock Plus 2.6.9
Block Site 1.1.8
Ghostery 5.4.5
NoScript 2.6.9.22

You have to set them up correctly but it is pretty straightforward.
Quoting 396. Patrap:



Morn' over dere.

Ana's shows us 2015 will have its own way with us.

We are here by natures consent..I respect Her, and am still alive for doing so..:)
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:



The event looks stronger than 1997 but what Eric Blake is saying is that it looks more Central based. No 2 El-Nino's are the same but either way this still could surpass 1997 which is what many are eluding too.




oh Scott you and you CFS

I saw him in 2000 ripping it up at Laniakea. I'm guessing he was about 60 then. Powerful guy, big legs. I used to see him a lot in the 1990's surfing Town. He really is talented with a style all his own due to his build, as were many of the guys from 60's and 70's.


Quoting 368. hydrus:

He is still shaping. He must be gettin up in years. He was competing in the 60,s.
the LLCOC is almost fully back under the convection via Hi-Res Vis images

Quoting 404. wunderkidcayman:


oh Scott you and you CFS



It's not just the CFS infact the CFS is weaker than some of the other models even at 3.2C.

Anyways here are the Wind Anomalies below.

Quoting 393. GeoffreyWPB:

hydrus, not a computer expert, but I'm guessing the keyboard is not the problem :)
Howdy Geoff..I mentioned it in passing. My keyboard failed along with my hard drive while commenting here. Someone critiqued my typing, so I explained my dilemma. I lean somethin evry day..:)
Quoting 406. Patrap:




Developing a CD0?
ok I say Moderate El Nino then weakens this year
or a moderate Modoki El Nino and weakens by Dec-Jan-Feb '15/'16
412. IDTH
Wow 70 MPH, I sure did not expect this at all, wonder if more convection is about to fire up since there is little bit less dry air than there was yesterday.
Quoting 411. wunderkidcayman:

ok I say Moderate El Nino then weakens this year
or a moderate Modoki El Nino and weakens by Dec-Jan-Feb '15/'16

or both mod El Nino that transition to a Modoki
Quoting 411. wunderkidcayman:
ok I say Moderate El Nino then weakens this year
or a moderate Modoki El Nino and weakens by Dec-Jan-Feb '15/'16


Evidence doesn't support that and I got to tell you I am seeing something else on all of these models which many on here will not want to here and that is that we could see this El-Nino going strong going into next Spring as all this warm water building into Nino 3.4 continues its progression east.

Quoting 412. IDTH:

Wow 70 MPH, I sure did not expect this at all, wonder if more convection is about to fire up since there is little bit less dry air than there was yesterday.


huh 70mph where you see that
Here is an Earth Cam of Holden Beach, NC according to the current track this will be in the core of the NE Quadrant at projected landfall, so this would be a good camera to bookmark:

Link
Go to the easy click section on weatherbell for the CFSv2 and look at February. This could be a long drawn out event and how this effects next year's Hurricane Season will be interesting too.
Quoting 414. StormTrackerScott:



Evidence doesn't support that and I got to tell you I am seeing something else on all of these models which many on here will not want to here and that is that we could see this El-Nino going strong going into next Spring as all this warm water building into Nino 3.4 continues its progression east.



ha lol
yeah keep on dreaming
not gonna happen
Tropical Storm Winds are about to reach the South and North Carolina Coast.
Quoting 418. wunderkidcayman:

ha lol
yeah keep on dreaming
not gonna happen


The nino index for next February on the CFSv2 is at 2.2C and this matches many of the other ENSO models. However that is down from the 3.5C the CFSv2 is showing for November on its latest run. So chances of La Nina next summer doesn't look good as more than likely we could be heading into more neutral territory mid next Summer which could set up a nasty landfalling set up for the US next year.
Quoting 396. Patrap:



Morn' over dere.

Ana's shows us 2015 will have its own way with us.

If it was August, Ana may have been a serious problem.
423. IDTH
Quoting 415. wunderkidcayman:



huh 70mph where you see that

I'm stupid, I just looked at the gusts and thought that was the wind speed, I feel really dumb.
Quoting 410. FIUStormChaser:



Developing a CD0?
I said a couple days ago that if this system stay over the stream, it could reach hurricane status...Nothing surprises me anymore when it comes to these tropical cyclones.
A number of those El Nino fanatics will be disappointed this year
Quoting 417. StormTrackerScott:

Go to the easy click section on weatherbell for the CFSv2 and look at February. This could be a long drawn out event and how this effects next year's Hurricane Season will be interesting too.
If possible Scott, post some info on the extended forecast, and when this thing will peak. I am trying to store some data on how much warm water will impact Ecuador and Peru.
Quoting 425. stoormfury:

A number of those El Nino fanatics will be disappointed this year
Normally I would agree with you, but things are changing out there. I expect the unexpected with this episode.
Quoting 418. wunderkidcayman:


ha lol
yeah keep on dreaming
not gonna happen

Why not?

Scott, you have a Wumail.
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:



The event looks stronger than 1997 but what Eric Blake is saying is that it looks more Central based. No 2 El-Nino's are the same but either way this still could surpass 1997 which is what many are eluding too.


Making up for lost time. I hope this does not ravage N.W.South America..Nino is very hard on the folks there... Notice how the northwestern coast of South America is one of the most effected areas. Here you can see that the west coast of Peru experiences very wet conditions during December, January and February. This is the reason for the flooding and crop destruction in Peru in 1982.


Looking at radar this morning, I wasn't surprised the Moderate risk was dropped. In a theme that has been repeated numerous times since 2012, days that look impressive leading up to the event just fall apart the day of.
yesterday I said that Ana would have been just under hurricane strength today. it seems I was right after all. Time will tell was my retort, to a fellow blogger, whose knowledge of meteorology is non existence.
From Monthly Ocean Briefing, shows subsurface not as strong this year as 97.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Is anyone going to comment on Noul closing on the Philippines as a cat 4 storm?
damn philippines going to take a direct hit from noul
Quoting 433. hydrus:




Maybe the best Ana has looked since formation.
GOES EAST...From NOAA...

Quoting 438. Tropicsweatherpr:



Maybe the best Ana has looked since formation.
Who know,s.If this keeps up, we may get a minimal hurricane out there...rare indeed..
441. MahFL
TS Ana has an eye....: