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Subtropical Storm Ana Forms Near South Carolina

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:03 AM GMT on May 08, 2015

The area of disturbed weather (90L) off the Southeast U.S. coast finally gained a well-defined circulation center and enough heavy thunderstorms near its core to be designated Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT Thursday. Ana's formation date of May 7 is the earliest appearance of a named storm in the Atlantic since a previous incarnation of Subtropical Storm Ana was recognized on April 20, 2003.

Long-range radar out of Charleston Thursday evening showed only a modest amount of heavy rains associated with the storm, and satellite loops showed a large circulation with most of the heavy thunderstorms more than 100 miles away from the center. This is a typical appearance for a subtropical cyclone. As explained in wunderground's subtropical storm tutorial, a subtropical cyclone has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain, and tropical storms have the potential to rapidly intensify into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Wind shear over Ana was a moderate 20 knots late Thursday night, and water vapor satellite loops showed a large area of dry air to the west over the Southeast United States. This dry air is retarding development, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west driving the dry air into the storm's core. Ocean temperatures were near 25 - 26°C (77 - 79°F), which is just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form. Given these relatively cool ocean temperatures and the fact Ana will need at least a day to transition to a fully tropical storm, I expect that the worst Ana will be able to do is intensify to a 65-mph tropical storm that brings 4 - 6" of rain to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Saturday and Sunday. The 11 pm EDT Thursday forecast from NHC, which calls for a 50-mph storm bringing 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, is more likely.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Ana.



Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) from the AVHRR satellite instrument clearly show the warm Gulf Stream current off the Southeast U.S. coast for the 6-day period ending on May 2, 2015, before the arrival of 90L (AKA Ana). The storm took advantage of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream to aid its intensification into Subtropical Storm Ana. Image credit: Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

How unusual would a landfall be?
It’s not so rare to get a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing somewhere in the Atlantic basin before the official June 1 start of the hurricane season. Since 1851, a total of 39 “pre-season” systems have developed across 32 separate years. We’ve averaged about one pre-season tropical or subtropical system in the Atlantic every two to three years since the modern satellite era began in 1960. Interestingly, among these early-starting seasons, 38% ended up producing more storms than a typical season, while 62% produced near- or below-average totals. Pre-season named storms may be getting more common. In 2008, Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published the paper, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. He concluded that there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Very few of the tropical/subtropical systems that develop prior to June 1 make landfall. The earliest U.S. landfall on record occurred on February 3, 1952, when the Groundhog Day tropical storm struck near Cape Sable, Florida. Several U.S. landfalls have occurred in May, with Beryl the strongest of the group in recent years, packing 65-mph winds during its landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, on May 28, 2012. However, a recent paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society documented a hurricane landfall on the Florida Panhandle on May 28, 1863, with estimated peak winds of 105 mph (see Figure 3).


Figure 3. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane, which struck northwest Florida as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, killing at least 72 people. This was the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May, and stuck nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 65 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a 2013 paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins." Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Here is the full list of peak winds observed on U.S. shores from named systems in May since 1900, including both landfalling and offshore systems, as compiled by tropical meteorologist Andrew Hagen (StormGeo) using the HURDAT database. These are ranked in descending order of observed winds and listed with the state(s) where the winds were recorded. If the current low were to develop into Ana and bring winds of at least 45 mph (40 knots) onshore, it will be the strongest U.S. impact by a tropical/subtropical storm on record for so early in the season.

5/28/2012 – 55 kt – FL (Beryl)
5/29/1908 – 55 kt – NC
5/27/1972 – 50 kt – GA (Alpha)
5/23/1976 – 40 kt – FL/GA (unnamed)
5/30/1959 – 40 kt – LA (Arlene)
5/10/2007 – 35 kt – GA (Andrea)
5/14/1916 – 35 kt – FL
5/17/1951 – 35 kt – FL (Able)

Only five tropical cyclones since 1851 have reached hurricane strength prior to June 1. The only one that exceeded Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale was Hurricane Able of 1951, which carried out a counter-clockwise loop off the Florida coast before swinging northeast just off the North Carolina coast. Able attained peak winds of 115 mph about 70 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC, on May 22. As noted above, Able also produced 40-mph (35 knot) winds in Florida, though it didn’t make landfall there. Many thanks to Andrew Hagen (StormGeo), Michael Lowry (Weather Channel), and wunderground member TropicalAnalystwx13 for information used above.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

,,,Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the
next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S...


The same trough that will play a role in Saturday's severe weather potential will have the potential to knock down the ridge. Could be as late as Monday morning before that happens.
Quoting 2. beell:


SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

,,,Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the
next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S...


The same trough that will play a role in Saturday's severe weather potential will have the potential to knock down the ridge. Could be as late as Monday morning before that happens.



but the ridge is not expected to push any further south? To me Ana is currently drifting westward
image host
Ya know what it became better formed over Carolinas?, one of the WxU members has their hotTub on high THATs why it formed near land and not over the stream.
thank you Dr. Masters for early shift post.
Amazing some of the modelbs predicted Ana almost 10 days ago....
Quoting 2. beell:


SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

,,,Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the
next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S...


The same trough that will play a role in Saturday's severe weather potential will have the potential to knock down the ridge. Could be as late as Monday morning before that happens.



And if she becomes fully tropical, we could have (using G-rated language here) a caca-ton of rain here in Charleston. I think the 1-2 inches for the whole event is very conservative.
WV is showing the battle between the dry air and Ana. For now, she is winning. Really digging into that slot and driving it SWD.
STS ANA

RGB Loop

Wow. Pops are listed at 20% for tomorrow night. That has to come up.
STS ANA

WV loop

Quoting 5. thelmores:

Amazing some of the modelbs predicted Ana almost 10 days ago....


No kidding. Very impressive.

Nash...It's trying to work the dry air out, but at some levels it must still be getting in. Having a hard time building any new significant convection. I wouldn't be surprised by a burst in the very early morning. Models still show the dry air winning out after tomorrow though. Interesting to watch either way.
TWC website is a bit slow to update. No mention of TS watch for Charleston yet.
Quoting 11. StormJunkie:



No kidding. Very impressive.

Nash...It's trying to work the dry air out, but at some levels it must still be getting in. Having a hard time building any new significant convection. I wouldn't be surprised by a burst in the very early morning. Models still show the dry air winning out after tomorrow though. Interesting to watch either way.


It is inhibiting development. She's putting up a good fight, though. Core must be pretty healthy.
Quoting 10. Patrap:

STS ANA

WV loop




She has a very, very tough road to try and transition in. Dry air getting wrapped in to core all the way from the other side.
Quoting 13. nash36:



It is inhibiting development. She's putting up a good fight, though. Core must be pretty healthy.



I think she's off the mark by 25-40 miles. If she slid W, she'd find warmer waters and may be able to build a CDO. The slightly cooler waters right outside the GS and the dry air are making it difficult to say the least.
Quoting 3. Hurricanes101:



but the ridge is not expected to push any further south? To me Ana is currently drifting westward


The upper wave that begat Ana should begin to weaken and deamplify over the next couple of days. And Ana should take what low-level organization that is already in place and transition to a tropical system. At that point, a lower level steering ridge will build west-with Ana on its western periphery and at least some northerly steering component-and shove it ashore towards the incoming trough-then out into the westerlies/southwesterlies.

But that's just a guess, of course!

Quoting 6. nash36:



And if she becomes fully tropical, we could have (using G-rated language here) a caca-ton of rain here in Charleston. I think the 1-2 inches for the whole event is very conservative.


Agree, fwiw!
'Nite, ya'll.

GFS Continental trough and Atlantic ridge on Sunday. Ana in between.

Link
Storm Alert time.
Quoting 15. StormJunkie:




I think she's off the mark by 25-40 miles. If she slid W, she'd find warmer waters and may be able to build a CDO. The slightly cooler waters right outside the GS and the dry air are making it difficult to say the least.


No argument there my friend. She will slide eventually. Question is will it be too late to overcome? We'll see. I still think no more than a 60mph TS, but once it reaches the shelf waters, she'll be done. The rain is the biggest threat.
Probably posted before....

May I post again?
From the National Hurricane Center


We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.

While most of the conversation today has been directed toward our newly-formed cyclone, it is worth mentioning that the next two days (Friday and Saturday) are likely to feature significant severe weather across the central Plains. This includes very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes that may be strong or even violent. Saturday has a good chance of becoming the first high risk of 2015--in my opinion.
Quoting 1. Patrap:




been on this blog for 7 years and i have never been 1st to post :P
Quoting 23. WaterWitch11:



been on this blog for 7 years and i have never been 1st to post :P


F5 I think perhaps - good luck
Quoting 21. docrod:

Probably posted before....

May I post again?
From the National Hurricane Center


We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Yes thank you NHC and Air Force Recon of keeping us posted. As well as Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Quoting 21. docrod:

Probably posted before....

May I post again?
From the National Hurricane Center


We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.


What a shame they have to point out that funding LACKS...I'll say no more cause I would go on some political rant...
G'night all. Early rise for work. We'll see what she looks like in the morning.
Quoting 26. StormJunkie:



What a shame they have to point out that funding LACKS...I'll say no more cause I would go on some political rant...


Agreed ... btw - the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to visit our little island tomorrow. We dunno know if that will happen. They are suppose to send in a jet and prop to Marathon Fl.
Quoting 22. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Saturday has a good chance of becoming the first high risk of 2015--in my opinion.

I wonder if there's a late tornado/early hurricane season correlation we don't know about?
Quoting 27. nash36:

G'night all. Early rise for work. We'll see what she looks like in the morning.


Nite - me too
So it skipped us in the valley, but looks like downtown and other parts of LA are getting some really good rain.

Thank You Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson, and hello everyone.

Here is a look at Subtropical Storm Ana:



Some of the higher cloud tops extend down into Northeast FL. tonight.

Atlantic 1
EPAC 0

You all have a goodnight and hold the fort down.

Thanks, Dr.Masters. Will be here to actually look more at the system tomorrow morning, making this post from the phone. Looks great on radar for a subtropical storm in May. Dry air is really working against it at the moment, but maybe we can see a blow up in the morning. I wouldn't expect more than a 55MPH max speed out of this thing.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thank You Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson, and hello everyone.

Here is a look at Subtropical Storm Ana:



Some of the higher cloud tops extend down into Northeast FL. tonight.

Atlantic 1
EPAC 0

You all have a goodnight and hold the fort down.




Look how quick that tail got evaporated. Pretty hostile out there right now!
Thanks Dr. M! I've also done an in-depth look and forecast for Ana in a blog post. I don't think conditions look so good for Ana to develop...what we see on satellite now maybe the most impressive the storm will look...
copied from previous blog entry

A ways away from us. Did get pretty windy around here, with some interesting low clouds. No rotation or pressure changes popping my eardrums though. And nice rain, icing on the cake we had a couple weeks ago. My housemate says the weather's looking more and more like Arizona where he grew up, these days.


Quoting 426. Patrap:

163  
WFUS55 KLKN 080131  
TORLKN  
NVC011-015-080215-  
/O.NEW.KLKN.TO.W.0001.150508T0131Z-150508T0215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
631 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ELKO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN EUREKA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...  
EAST CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM PDT  
 
* AT 630 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9  
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRASS VALLEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GRASS VALLEY AROUND 655 PM PDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED  
FOR THE SAME AREA. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM.  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3972 11655 3969 11678 3997 11691 4002 11656  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 169DEG 15KT 3978 11669  
 
 
 
BB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab NV Page

Main Text Page


37. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu. Though colours you see are not the original Colorado product, why change them, cause i got a new box of Crayons®.
D&T:: on mp4
IMAGERY TYPE:: Experimental Fog/Low clouds
SUBJECT:: Ana Sub?Xtra?Tropical? can't seem to make Ana's mind up...just like El Niño...TODAYS KIDS can't focus. When i was a kid my friends where already alcoholic at age 7...NOT THAT THERE'S ANYTHING RIGHT WITH THAT.
NOTE:: The first 60 frames are 3 times faster than the last 30. Notice how the 2nd leg of the active southern Jet stream boosted by ENSO-e kicked the Trough up north into ~Minnesota, so can we say El Niño kicked Cap'n Trough in the Cojcojoñes(upper)

http://youtu.be/NG8g0qv2QUw(org600x500-below Same)


Xtra note:: Notice the Niño "Ikodom" name i made from reversing Modoki. As True Modoki has plumes of moisture going from PAC towards Southern Canada/Wash State & Pac towards Baja/Mexico, in other words from the West to East. These plumes have Eastern components as from NE to SW or SE towards NW. These last 2 LOWs just did this, a bigger LOW from New Mexico heading N/NW and the smaller LOW you see heading from Washington State towards CA. which to do so has a slight SW nudge....Majeek!

Xtra NOTE2:: If Ana sticks around when Ana leaves do we sing ♫ ANA ANA ANA HEY HEY HEY ♫ (Kiss 'Er) GOODBYE (CREDIT:: Nananana Hey hey hey goodbye by Steam the band not the gaseous phase of water nor the software.
California’s Great Wilting — Lake Mead Heading Toward Rationing Line, Extreme Fire Hazard as 12.5 Million Trees Stand Dead, Agriculture Under Threat

According to the California Government, State snowpack levels are now at 1 percent of average. That’s not just the lowest ever recorded. That’s about as close to zero as one can get without actually hitting zero.

“I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen. We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” — Stephen Chu in a public press release six years ago.


Link
40. vis0
Quoting 5. thelmores:

Amazing some of the modelbs predicted Ana almost 10 days ago....
If i didn't check models often i'd think that but over the last 2 weeks there were 3 MODEL predictions/Runs of a LOW going tropical from GoMx /Caribbean/ Western Atlantic, some call "Ghost Storms" so sure eventually with so many "runs" somethings bound to stick ........eewww...yes eewww can also represent Ana's direction
Colorado Bob

There are several sets of graphs. Going in different directions.

Co2 and sea level going up, and fresh water and ice going down. Each one has new hockey stick glued on to the old hockey stick.

The new hockey sticks are approaching 90 degrees
The hurricane local statement is slightly hysterical given this is just a sissy subtropical storm.

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-081245-

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC AL012015
1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND
PENDER...COASTAL PENDER...INLAND NEW HANOVER...COASTAL NEW
HANOVER...INLAND BRUNSWICK...COASTAL BRUNSWICK...INLAND
HORRY...COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL GEORGETOWN

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NC OR ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SC
- 31.5N 77.6W
- STORM INTENSITY 45 MPH
- MOVING NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS STORM
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PREPARE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, ARROYOS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME
SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY
VULNERABLE SPOTS. A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER
OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME
NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE
CLOSURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN AND TAKE NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. DELIBERATE EFFORTS SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ENSURE THAT YOUR EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES KIT IS STOCKED AND READY.

WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THERE ARE INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
WHICH MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

IF YOU LIVE IN A PLACE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING, SUCH AS
NEAR THE OCEAN OR A LARGE INLAND LAKE, IN A LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREA, IN A VALLEY OR CANYON, OR NEAR AN ALREADY SWOLLEN
RIVER, PLAN TO MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER ON HIGHER GROUND

WHEN SECURING YOUR PROPERTY, OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCTED
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE CERTAIN PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES TO BECOME UNSAFE.

BE A GOOD SAMARITAN AND CHECK ON THOSE WHO MAY NOT BE FULLY AWARE OF
THE SITUATION OR WHO ARE UNABLE TO MAKE PERSONAL PREPARATIONS.

VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD BECOME FAMILIAR WITH NEARBY SURROUNDINGS.
IF YOU ARE A VISITOR, KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH
YOU ARE LOCATED AND WHERE IT IS RELATIVE TO CURRENT WATCHES AND
WARNINGS. IF STAYING AT A HOTEL, ASK THE MANAGEMENT STAFF ABOUT THEIR
ONSITE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR EVACUATION ORDERS, ESPECIALLY
PERTAINING TO AREA VISITORS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC AROUND 6 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
dichotomy -
We are debating the inflation of footballs, and Brazil in debating sending troops to it's largest city because they are running out of water.
Quoting 43. ColoradoBob1:

dichotomy -
We are debating the inflation of footballs, and Brazil in debating sending troops to it's largest city because they are running out of water.
If everyone is using the same football, why is this even an issue..?..If it is better deflated, one would think everyone has the same advantage...Sounds screwed up.
Dry air entrainment shows well on MIMIC..

Quoting 43. ColoradoBob1:

dichotomy -
We are debating the inflation of footballs, and Brazil in debating sending troops to it's largest city because they are running out of water.


No worries, we'll be sharing São Paulo's anguish in due time:
48. vis0
if at 1st you don't succeed post elsewhere, will try here again after its posted in Japan & Chinese site.
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
A. 08/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 08/0900Z
D. 31.7N 78.5W
E. 08/1115Z TO 07/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Next plane leaves in less than 20 minutes.
50. vis0
       First 4 images are for reference NOT present
       temperatures or Gulf Stream path Clicking images
       will open another page taking you to the originating
       webpage that has each image. 
       This is from November 21, 2001 as reference .
visual view of Gulf Stream temperature 2001



img-gulfstream2



    Another outline of Gulf Stream area





Charts showing Globes Oceam Temperatures

The following was created from images taken from
       Oceanweather.com specifically
oceanweather.com/data.
Once there click on icons for each data, including an animation
       but not this comparison gif, this overlay is not a oceanweather
       product Its a aniGif showing 3 areas of observational marine
       data i combined/overlayed into an aniGIF.
Pay attention to TIMES some are the same adjust for the different times
image host






Ah, I see "Ana" is there; thanks for the update! And good morning everyone.

Meanwhile Philippines are preparing for the arrival of Noul/Dodong:

PHIVOLCS: Bulusan lahar flow possible
ABC-News (Video Report in English), Posted at 05/08/2015 2:48 PM
Local officials will implement the preemptive evacuation of over 2,000 families in Irosin, Sorsogon who could be affected by Typhoon Dodong and the activity of Bulusan Volcano.

Typhoon, volcano pose twin threats to Philippines
Source: Reuters - Fri, 8 May 2015 06:37 GMT


Click for the loop.
Subtropical Storm ANA
5:00 AM EDT Fri May 8 2015
Location: 31.6°N 77.8°W
Moving: NNW at 1 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph




SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

Subtropical Storm Ana has remained convectively challenged overnight with only a small cluster of thunderstorms noted revolving through the southern semicircle, and only shallow isolated convection having recently developed in the inner-core region. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt based on previous recon data and the lack of any significant change in the overall convective pattern since that flight.

The initial motion continues to be a slow drift to the northwest or north-northwest at only 1-2 kt. Ana is embedded in a blocking pattern that is expected to persist for the next 3 days or so until a strong mid-tropospheric low/trough currently located over the western U.S. moves into the central and southern Plains and nudges Ana northward and eventually northeastward by early next week. During the next 48 hours, Ana is expected to move toward the southeastern U.S. at a very slow pace. The global and regional models are in remarkably good agreement on this weak steering pattern persisting through the weekend so, the official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCA.

Water vapor imagery indicates that a tight mid-/upper-level low has finally become juxtaposed with the surface low, and the two have remained nearly stationary over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. However, intrusions of dry air into the inner core have been noted in satellite imagery and upper-air data during the past several hours, which have likely been the main reason for the lack of deep convection developing near the center. But with the lows now vertically stacked and expected to remain over SSTs of at least 25C for the next 24 hours, some slight strengthening is expected. Ana could also transition to a tropical storm during that time. By 48 hours and beyond, however, Ana's slow movement will take the cyclone over colder shelf waters of around 20C-22C, and weakening is expected due to the air in the inner core becoming more stable. Most of the global models now show Ana remaining a distinct entity through the forecast period and accompanied by winds near gale force. As a result, the forecast calls for Ana to remain an extratropical low on Days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the Decay-SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 31.6N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 31.9N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 32.2N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 32.8N 78.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 34.1N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 37.7N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 43.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Nice burst of convecation this morning w/ Dmax. ... Ana trying to wrap the moisture around the LLC..... put a serious dent in the dry air southward. Looks to me like the shear is starting to subside, which may allow Ana to further mix out the dry air. Will be fun to watch today. May have to go visit Stephanie Abrams this morning! :)
Quoting 54. thelmores:

Nice burst of convecation this morning w/ Dmax. ... Ana trying to wrap the moisture around the LLC..... put a serious dent in the dry air southward. Looks to me like the shear is starting to subside, which may allow Ana to further mix out the dry air. Will be fun to watch today. May have to go visit Stephanie Abrams this morning! :)


Looks like models are making a shift in your direction. Not at all unheard of for systems in Ana's location.


Ana from Charleston just now

Ana is becoming better organized and more tropical like. I suspect this will be purely tropical today.
Quoting 56. tampabaymatt:



Morning, Matt. Looks like Texas is in for an inundation. From NWS-Houston's AFD (4:50 CDT today):

As the low moves into the plains states Sunday into Monday...a
northern Texas boundary will approach the Texas coastal plain.
Convection firing up along this boundary will produce a few
elements that will increase areawide probability of precipitation to likely...outflow
moving downstream into a near 1.7-1.8 inch precipitable water and less capped
se'ern Texas air mass. The model suite solution is to advance a north
central state cold pool-driven qlcs into the area sometime from late
Sunday through Monday afternoon. This is where the mesoscale takes
control and future rain and storm development will remain imminent
through the work week...redevelopment from passing shortwave
disturbances / sustainability from residual outflow boundaries
laying within an unstable and fully saturated early to middle week
regional atmospheric column. Locally heavy rainfall...possibly
focused along a near coastal inverted surface trough and falling
over saturated grounds...may exacerbate the flooding threat going
into middle may. Run-to-run model consistency on placing subsequent six
hourly quantitative precipitation forecast within their mass fields from Tuesday through Friday has
increased forecaster confidence...wpc's 7 day quantitative precipitation forecast over the area is
between 5 to over 7 inches (increasing rain accumulation gradient
towards more southwestern counties).
Good Morning


ana will be a tropical storm soon itswill not be a subtropical storm anymore!
Quoting 61. WxLogic:

Good Morning
good morning only may we have ana wow!
Quoting 60. LAbonbon:


Morning, Matt. Looks like Texas is in for an inundation. From NWS-Houston's AFD (4:50 CDT today):

As the low moves into the plains states Sunday into Monday...a
northern Texas boundary will approach the Texas coastal plain.
Convection firing up along this boundary will produce a few
elements that will increase areawide probability of precipitation to likely...outflow
moving downstream into a near 1.7-1.8 inch precipitable water and less capped
se'ern Texas air mass. The model suite solution is to advance a north
central state cold pool-driven qlcs into the area sometime from late
Sunday through Monday afternoon. This is where the mesoscale takes
control and future rain and storm development will remain imminent
through the work week...redevelopment from passing shortwave
disturbances / sustainability from residual outflow boundaries
laying within an unstable and fully saturated early to middle week
regional atmospheric column. Locally heavy rainfall...possibly
focused along a near coastal inverted surface trough and falling
over saturated grounds...may exacerbate the flooding threat going
into middle may. Run-to-run model consistency on placing subsequent six
hourly quantitative precipitation forecast within their mass fields from Tuesday through Friday has
increased forecaster confidence...wpc's 7 day quantitative precipitation forecast over the area is
between 5 to over 7 inches (increasing rain accumulation gradient
towards more southwestern counties).



Good morning Bonnie. The QPF may be over doing it here, but that's a lot of rain for areas that have been hit pretty hard recently. There was a line of nasty storms approaching the DFW area yesterday, but I haven't checked the damage reports yet.
STS Ana looks to be drifting a little bit ESE this morning? NWS MLB calls for near zero precip chances today in the subsidence, but it looks like some wrap-around moisture in creeping back in along the eastern side of the FL peninsula. Maybe a chance of isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon? Odds are low, though.
PS Checking the latest discussion drift is more to the NW, so I guess I am seeing the wrap-around moisture as the dry slot moves more east and is getting slowly mixed out.
Quoting 44. hydrus:

If everyone is using the same football, why is this even an issue..?..If it is better deflated, one would think everyone has the same advantage...Sounds screwed up.


Each NFL team uses their own balls. The quarterbacks scuff up new balls days before the game, just the way they like them, each QB has their own preferences. The whole point is to help the teams score more points, which means more viewers, which means more $ revenue.
Quoting 67. guygee:

STS Ana looks to be drifting a little bit ESE this morning?


No, the convection is revolving SE, the storm is virtually stationary.
This is some of the most favorable shear I can remember seeing, although I have only been tracking for about 3 years.



Ana is quickly becoming tropical. very good vorticity at the surface and mid levels. at the upper levels there is not much spin. however i expect ANA to peak just below hurricane strengh before making land fall.
agree with you guygee anas creeping south
Quoting 67. guygee:

STS Ana looks to be drifting a little bit ESE this morning? NWS MLB calls for near zero precip chances today in the subsidence, but it looks like some wrap-around moisture in creeping back in along the eastern side of the FL peninsula. Maybe a chance of isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon? Odds are low, though.


I see it more like meandering.

Indeed, the changes will be too low for a even a shower to be squeezed out in the FL peninsula, but the southern portions might be lucky enough if Lake O generates a breeze front and E/W coasts as well.

Nonetheless, Ana definitely signaled an overall pattern change for the gulf states as a more moist/summer type air mass will be taking a hold of us and the summer pattern should start this Sunday into Monday (specially for those here in FL).
Quoting 72. islander101010:

agree with you guygee anas creeping south


"Creeping" might be an overstatement. The official advisory shows it is moving at 1 mph, which means it's basically stationary. It might seem to wobble in one direction or another on satellite, but this isn't going to move south.
Good Morning!

Good morning Ana!

Looking more impressive this morning ....

Convection is finally wrapping around the center.
Quoting 76. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

Good morning Ana!

Looking more impressive this morning ....

Convection is finally wrapping around the center.


And so is the wind field.
[Image of initial wind radii]
Quoting 71. stoormfury:

Ana is quickly becoming tropical. very good vorticity at the surface and mid levels. at the upper levels there is not much spin. however i expect ANA to peak just below hurricane strengh before making land fall.


I disagree! 50mph peak forecasted by NHC is reasonable.
Quoting 66. tampabaymatt:





Hi Matt very dry at my place while all areas east of me seem to keep stealing my rain. However GFS is showing the Wet Season beginning on Monday. Hopefully the GFS pans out because the Euro is bone dry across FL 2 totally different scenarios next week for FL based off these 2 models.

GFS
Quoting 76. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

Good morning Ana!

Looking more impressive this morning ....

Convection is finally wrapping around the center.


You must be looking at a different storm. Dry air is about to enter the center, cloud tops are warming on the SE side.

Quoting 80. MahFL:



You must be looking at a different storm. Dry air is about to enter the center, cloud tops are warming on the SE side.




No, I agree with SW247. It's looking better, but not by much.
Folks, the waves at Folly Beach, SC are basically knee high. Looks like a typical summer morning. Not much chop. Ana so close, not a favorable fetch. Wrightsville Beach, NC is larger as fetch a bit better, but a bit sloppy. Surfers in the Carolinas may get let down by Ana. Too close and conditions will probably deteriorate with an increasing SE wind. Maybe a brief period of clean conditions at some point over the weekend or Monday.

Can't embed cam link. At work.

www.surfchex.com
TIME WILL TELL
GFS also has 2.0" to 2.5" PWAT's across FL next week too with SE Flow which is a "Traditional" Wet Season set up across FL not like the set up we had for all of April.

Quoting 83. stoormfury:

TIME WILL TELL


Let me guess: Time will tell whether or not Ana will organize.
Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:




Hi Matt very dry at my place while all areas east of me seem to keep stealing my rain. However GFS is showing the Wet Season beginning on Monday. Hopefully the GFS pans out because the Euro is bone dry across FL to totally different scenarios next week for FL based off these 2 models.

GFS



I noticed the 6Z GFS shows the wet season starting in about a week. I hope that pans out as it has been very dry in W C FL lately.
Looks like the Mac Daddy of all El-Nino's beginning to show itself this year.

Quoting 86. tampabaymatt:



I noticed the 6Z GFS shows the wet season starting in about a week. I hope that pans out as it has been very dry in W C FL lately.


Actually looks like Monday with maybe a 30 percent chance which then increases late next week to likely chances it appears. Well see as it has been dry here to Matt.
It is very healthy to agree to disagree.
Were still ahead of 1997.

Quoting 58. presslord:



Ana from Charleston just now


Your a brave man to be out there Presslord, but pray tell, who's protecting your lawn chairs?
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 11h 11 hours ago
GFS 18z in "El Nino" mode. Develops triplets ... 2 in West Pac & 1 across equator in S Hemi over next week.
Big Ridge of High pressure continues to set up shop over Australia as a result the SOI is tanking and cold water is upwelling both North and South of Australia.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -32.38

Since Ana's origin is subtropical, it might be a little more aggressive at surviving any possible dry air intrusion. Aside from the T-storms that are trying to wrap around the center, the windfield is fairly large. The size might help sustain the system, but it will take longer to wind up.

Quoting 80. MahFL:



You must be looking at a different storm. Dry air is about to enter the center, cloud tops are warming on the SE side.


Quoting 89. stoormfury:

It is very healthy to agree to disagree.


I agree to disagree and agree.
SPC outlook just came out. Keeping MDT risk, but judging from what the rest of the discussion said, they are thinking about removing the MDT risk.
Ana looking good this morning all she needs to do now is to swing some more convection over the N side of her LLC and she will be set

I'd expect transition into Tropical Storm shortly
Ana has a similar appearance to Beryl as a subtropical storm in almost the same spot 3 years ago.


Saturday

403.26...

excellent, so just move on. and make STS Ana your primary concern,as it is forecast to affect the SE usa
Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:

Saturday




Raise your hand if you expect Saturday to be a HIGH RISK day.

*raises hand*
Quoting 98. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ana has a similar appearance to Beryl as a subtropical storm in almost the same spot 3 years ago.





yep

btw good job you updated the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season wiki page
GFS FARRRR out. Interesting but probably wont stay.

Quoting 103. wunderkidcayman:


yep

btw good job you updated the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season wiki page


He always does that, he's pretty known over there by now.. :P

GFS Shows landfall for Ana approximately 50 hours out in northern South Carolina, at 55MPH, what I predicted to be the maximum strength that this system would reach last night.

Quoting 105. Torito:



He always does that, he's pretty known over there by now.. :P

GFS Shows landfall for Ana approximately 50 hours out in northern South Carolina.




Does not look good. 1012mb.

More of a rainmaker than a windmaker, I expect.

Quoting 106. 62901IL:


Does not look good. 1012mb.

More of a rainmaker than a windmaker, I expect.



I agree. Looking at it last night I thought the Carolinas would get a decent bit of rain, but according to this it looks like the rain event will be offshore. probably weak TS force winds are what we will see out of this system. (40-45MPH)
Good Morning; the SPC and WPC headlines for Conus today:

A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered to perhaps widespread thunderstorms may develop across portions of the south-central High Plains to near the Red River, mainly from midday through this evening. Some of these storms will become severe, offering damaging wind and very large hail, along with the potential for tornadoes. For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

A substantial severe weather event is possible across parts of the southern and central Great Plains on Saturday. Intense thunderstorms should develop over portions of southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma to central Texas during the afternoon. Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are likely in these areas. A brief tornado threat is possible along coastal areas of northeast South Carolina and North Carolina within the north and northeast quadrants of Subtropical Storm Ana. 



Quoting 108. Torito:



I agree. Looking at it last night I thought the Carolinas would get a decent bit of rain, but according to this it looks like the rain event will be offshore. probably weak TS force winds are what we will see out of this system. (40-45MPH)


Yeah.

But you probably remember this from 2011.

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

But it probably won't happen to Ana. :)
As to Ana, as I mentioned yesterday, that topography (with Ana sitting in the SE Conus "curve area") is probably helping somewhat with maintaining that nice broad circulation regardless of what happens with the core....She picked a sweet spot to meander around.
Quoting 104. Torito:

GFS FARRRR out. Interesting but probably wont stay.




it doesn't seem to have tropical origins
and doesn't look tropical
might be sub tropical
or even non tropical

also GFS at the very end also hints possible system in the SW Caribbean
which is a likely possibility
RECON REPORTING
NEAR CENTER
PRESSURES SO FAR DOWN TO 1001.9MB
Quoting 110. 62901IL:


Yeah.

But you probably remember this from 2011.

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

But it probably won't happen to Ana. :)


LOL, I remember that. Was probably the best report ever made by the folks over there.
Quoting 113. wunderkidcayman:
RECON REPORTING
NEAR CENTER
PRESSURES SO FAR DOWN TO 1001.9MB


We got some 50KT+ wind speed in there, I wasn't expecting to see that, to be honest.

Quoting 113. wunderkidcayman:
RECON REPORTING
NEAR CENTER
PRESSURES SO FAR DOWN TO 1001.9MB


Looks like it will be read as 1001.3 or so. Appears they found the center, with no wind whatsoever.



I hope they go into the southwest again, I would like to see more of those winds.
Quoting 115. Torito:



We got some 50KT+ wind speed in there, I wasn't expecting to see that, to be honest.



50kt flight-level winds. Surface winds are still around 40kt.
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

50kt flight-level winds. Surface winds are still around 40kt.


Where do I look to see that data?
Will finally note as to Ana that all that dry air circulating into the core is not going to help with tropical transition. Just my personal opinion that she might be destined to remain as a sub-tropical storm unless she can build more convection at the LLC; she is trying however:

RECON REPORTING
FOUND CENTER
MIN PRESSURE 1001.2MB
NOW FLYING (SW 221)
Quoting 121. weathermanwannabe:

Reminds me a little of Tropical Storm Andrea with all of the convection forced to one side.
Quoting 119. weathermanwannabe:

Will finally note as to Ana that all that dry air circulating into the core is not going to help with tropical transition. Just my personal opinion that she might be destined to remain as a sub-tropical storm unless she can build more convection at the LLC; she is trying however:


I have seen this so many times. I believe it is possible for it to become fully tropical in it can maintain itself over the warm water. Once it has tapped the gulf stream, it can at least hold its own, even while en training dry air.

Was trying to be optimistic last night, but now I just can't see Ana winning the battle with the dry air. I don't think she'll ever be able to fill in the west side.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
21:00 PM JST May 8 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.8N 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 5.8N 161.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
21:00 PM JST May 8 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Noul (950 hPa) located at 13.4N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 15.6N 124.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.6N 121.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 22.5N 122.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea South of Okinawa
Quoting 107. Patrap:


Good morning Pat..Actually not looking that bad...For early May.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Noul


Big Ridge of High pressure continues to set up shop over Australia as a result the SOI is tanking and cold water is upwelling both North and South of Australia.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -32.38



scott.....this has been explained time and time again....when there is tropical activity near the tahitian islands.....we see this same negative spike......we saw this two months ago with the tropical cyclone activity....we saw this 5 months ago with the same....however....after the tropical cyclones....we've seen the soi daily values retreat back to neutral values...and thus why the more important values of the 30 day SOI and the 90 day SOI are in the neutral range
133. JRRP
RECON REPORTING
MISSION COMPLETE
MISSION ENDED
HEADING BACK TO KBIX

AF97-5304 OUT
Good morning.
I get up every morning and check the Underground site for my daily weather report. I'm not a weather maven or anything but I find it all fascinating how it works and what happens. This morning there is a big red bar that says "tropical storm conditions possible" it stretches across the whole week. I live near Cape Cod but on the main land. This storm seems to be struggling where it is...how is it going to survive to get up here? And don't most models take it inland?? Just curious. If it were possible for it to make it this far north...when might it possibly get here? On my forecast it doesn't narrow it down to any specific day or anything...it's a whole week!! Thank you in advance...have a great day!!
Quoting 107. Patrap:






She's looking better, though most of the convection's south of the center.
Convection starting to wrap around the LLCOC
The LLCOC becoming tighter and much more organised
NHC says transition is occurring
I hope it completes transition before nightfall
If a Category 2 hurricane hit Fla. May 28, 1863 how can Hurricane Able of 1951 be the only pre-June 1 hurricane to exceed Category 1?????