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Atlantic's First Invest of the 2015, 90L, Organizing Over the Bahamas

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:50 PM GMT on May 06, 2015

The first Atlantic Ocean "Invest" of 2015 has arrived, as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the area of disturbed weather over the Northwest Bahamas as Invest 90L on Wednesday morning. Note that there is no formal definition of what qualifies as an "Invest"; declaring an "Invest" is merely done so that a set of forecasting aids like computer model track forecasts can be generated for the disturbance. NHC gives an "Invest" a tracking number 90-99, followed by a single letter corresponding to the ocean basin--"L" for the Atlantic, or "E" for the Eastern Pacific. Other warning agencies assign "Invests" for the other ocean basins--"W" for the Western Pacific, "A" for the Arabian Sea, etc. When the numbering reaches 99, the next disturbance gets the recycled name "90". The appearance of 90L on May 6 this year marks the third earliest arrival of the year's first "Invest" over the past ten years:

2015: May 6
2014: June 4
2013: May 18
2012: February 5
2011: March 10
2010: May 24
2009: May 18
2008: May 31
2007: May 8
2006: June 10


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L.

Satellite loops show heavy thunderstorms between the Southeast coast of Florida and the Northwest Bahamas in association with 90L increased on Wednesday morning, but there was no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed no low-level spiral bands trying to form, and the activity was not well-organized. Wind shear was a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west of 90L over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air is retarding development, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west driving the dry air into the core of 90L. Ocean temperatures were near 26°C (79°F), which is about 1.7°C (3°F) above average for this time of year, and just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for Wednesday afternoon was cancelled, and has be re-scheduled for Thursday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 2. Wind forecast for Saturday, May 9, 2015 at 11 am EDT made by the 00Z Wednesday run of the European model. The model is predicting a subtropical depression to be off the coast of the Southeast U.S.

Forecast for 90L
The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over 90L would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday, which should allow 90L to approach subtropical depression status by Friday at the latest. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University from Wednesday morning's 06Z run of the GFS model support the idea that this system could be a subtropical or tropical system by Friday. Ocean temperatures fall to about 25°C (77°F) in the waters off of the North Carolina coast, so the farther north the storm wanders, the tougher time it will have developing tropical characteristics--though if the storm manages to find a sweet spot over the core of the warm Gulf Stream current, it has better odds of development. Steering currents are weak over the waters off the Southeast U.S. coast, so expect a slow and erratic motion for 90L. The Wednesday morning 00Z runs of our two top models for predicting tropical cyclones tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed the system making landfall this weekend, with the GFS model predicting landfall in South Carolina on Saturday, and the European model taking the storm ashore in North Carolina on Sunday. Beginning on Friday, coastal regions of both of these states can expect heavy rains and high surf causing rip currents and coastal erosion. Note that the west side of 90L will be weaker and drier, due to the dry air to the west of the storm, and the heaviest rains and stongest winds of 90L will be on the east side of the storm, over North Carolina. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 60%, respectively.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the meteorology of 90L in his Wednesday afternoon post.


Figure 3. Latest projected track of Typhoon Noul from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC); a time of 9:00 p.m. JST Wednesday is 1200 GMT or 8 am EDT.

Typhoon Noul posing an increased threat to northern Philippines
After dumping more than 10 inches of rain at Yap International Airport, Category 1 Typhoon Noul is on its way toward the northern Philippines. Noel is gradually intensifying, with sustained winds of 90 mph reported at 8 am EDT (1200 GMT) Wednesday. Satellite loops show that the storm’s center is obscured by central dense overcast, but microwave data obtained by satellite shows that an open eye is already present. Noel is well structured and passing over warm waters, with only weak to moderate wind shear, so continued strengthening into a Category 4 storm is expected. Noel will encounter a trough as it approaches the Philippines, which may force the storm to recurve before making landfall there. However, model guidance has been trending westward, albeit with some uncertainty, and the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center track (see Figure 3) now brings Noul ashore along the northeast coast of Luzon, the largest and northernmost island of the Philippines. Noel is expected to peak in intensity just a few hours before approaching Luzon, with sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) projected by the JTWC near landfall. The northeast part of Luzon is mountainous, which could increase the risk for very heavy rains as Noul moves onshore or nearby, although a grazing landfall would put most of Luzon on the weaker western side of the circulation. Noul will be referred to as Dodong in the Philippines’ naming system.

Another tropical system, Invest 93W, is organizing to the east, and is likely to develop late this wee. It is too soon to know what its chances are of affecting the Philippines or Japan next week.

An exceptionally busy early portion of typhoon season
Noul's formation date of May 3 marks the second earliest appearance on record for the Northwest Pacific's sixth named storm of the year, according to statistics of the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. The average is 1.8 storms before May 8. The record is held by 1971, when the sixth named storm of the year (Babe) formed on May 3, six hours earlier than Noul's formation time. Noul will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines so far in 2015. The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season--during Easter weekend, April 4 - 5. Fortunately, Maysak was weakening rapidly as it made landfall, and no deaths or significant damage were reported (though four people were injured after huge waves generated by Maysak hit them while they were taking selfies along the shoreline of Dipaculao town in Aurora province on April 4.)

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
And Bob, sorry :-)
Could be wrong but 90L looks pretty tropical to my novice eyes.
Atlantic Hurricane Season May Start Early With Possible Coastal Threat to Carolinas Published May 6 2015 10:43 AM EDT
Highlights
A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is expected to form off the Southeast coast Thursday or Friday.
The National Hurricane Center has given this area of interest a 60 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours.
A track toward the coastal Carolinas now looks increasingly possible late this week where most direct impacts may occur (bands of locally heavy rain, some strong wind gusts).
High surf, rip currents, some coastal flooding possible from Florida to North Carolina regardless.
The Latest
Energized by the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream, a weak area of low pressure has formed near the northwest Bahamas.

Wednesday morning the National Hurricane Center designated this system as Invest 90-L. Invests are systems of interest the NHC monitors for future development. In essence, a name before a named depression or storm forms.

(MORE: What is an Invest?)

As of now, Invest 90-L does not exhibit sufficiently well-organized convection near a well-defined surface low-pressure center. The NHC canceled the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance flight originally scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

Because water temperatures are generally running above average in the Bahamas and over the Gulf Stream now, according to senior meteorologist Stu Ostro, this would help fuel thunderstorms near Invest 90-L, helping to increase its organization, though he emphasizes that whether the system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone will ultimately depend more on what's going on in the atmosphere.

For more on what a "subtropical" cyclone is, scroll down the page a bit. First, let's hit on the potential future impacts of this system.
" but there was no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form"

Really? Multiple westerly wind reports and overall surface observations would support some type of low level circulation east of the Treasure Coast although this may transfer farther northeast later in the day.
Where's It Headed?
Bands of locally heavy rainfall may wrap ashore into eastern Florida and the northwest Bahamas on Wednesday. Street flooding is possible in areas where heavy rain persists for an hour or more. There is also a high rip current risk for parts of Florida's Atlantic beaches.

(FORECASTS: Daytona Beach | Freeport, Bahamas)

Eventually, that low near or north of the Bahamas may sprout enough convection near its circulation to be classified as a subtropical depression or storm either Thursday or Friday. (Again, we have more on what a subtropical system is in the section below.)

If that occurs, the NHC would issue forecast advisories. The first name of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is Ana.

This system is expected to drift northward Thursday and Friday, possibly nearing the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina as soon as late Thursday or Friday.
12z GFS 48hrs...Oddly enough, I think I'm leaning more towards the NAM solution. It is closer in line with the ECMWF at the moment.

This could bring bands of rain and some strong wind gusts to parts of the coastal Carolinas as soon as Thursday, through at least Friday.

It remains uncertain whether the system moves inland later Friday or stalls out just offshore for awhile this weekend before a southward dip in the polar jet stream finally whisks it away early next week.

The steering flow in the upper atmosphere will be very weak. The northern, or polar jet stream will remain far to the north, while any upper-level high pressure will remain rather weak and centered far to the east.

If the system stalls offshore, it would have more time over the Gulf Stream to sprout convection, so we can't rule out this system transitioning to a fully tropical storm in that case, as was the case with Subtropical, then Tropical Storm Beryl in May 2012. In this case, there would be stronger winds at the coast until the system finally moves inland, after which winds would diminish.

Otherwise, a low inland would maintain a chance of rain showers and breezy conditions at the beaches through the weekend. Even in the quicker inland scenario, south to southeast onshore winds may persist along the southern coast of North Carolina through Saturday, if not Sunday.
Quoting 3. ProgressivePulse:

Could be wrong but 90L looks pretty tropical to my novice eyes.


It needs to have a LLC present to have a warm core to be associated as tropical, which as of right now it does not according to the NHC. Don't focus on the high level cloud rotation, because that can be deceiving. Use radar and other types of satellite data to determine this.
Quoting 5. Drakoen:

" but there was no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form"

Really? Multiple westerly wind reports and overall surface observations would support some type of low level circulation east of the Treasure Coast although this may transfer farther northeast later in the day.


I think that was the point Drak. Yes, there are westerly wind reports, but still no clear llc. Elongated. All models are showing it consolidating due E of the Daytona to Jax area later today.
INVEST 90l otential impacts
- Bands of rain to move into parts of eastern Carolinas as soon as Thursday. Areas of rain may persist in the eastern Carolinas through Saturday or Sunday.

- Gusty winds pick up in coastal North Carolina (especially south of Hatteras) and coastal South Carolina Thursday, continue into Friday and possibly into the weekend. The magnitude of wind threat remains a bit uncertain at this time, though the threat of damaging winds and power outages appears low.

- Elevated surf, rip current threat spreads from parts of Florida's East Coast to the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday. High surf, rip currents, some coastal flooding and beach erosion from the northern South Carolina coast to the southern North Carolina coast (Hatteras south) continues possibly through Saturday, particularly in areas where onshore flow persists the longest (southern North Carolina coast).
And 12z GFS at 78hrs...Retrograding SW. Not buying it atm.

Already like that? O_O



Quoting 10. StormJunkie:



I think that was the point Drak. Yes, there are westerly wind reports, but still no clear llc. Elongated. All models are showing it consolidating due E of the Daytona to Jax area later today.

Evidence.
Quoting 12. StormJunkie:

And 12z GFS at 78hrs...Retrograding SW. Not buying it atm.




Evidently, GFS is showing a stronger ridge. Could be a bad run. Let's see what the 12z ECMWF does. Keep in mind, up until last night, most of the models had been bending the storm back W or slightly WSW at the end, so it appears at least for now, the GFS is going back to that solution.
GFS Ensembles are mostly showing the same as the operational as well.
Quoting 14. Drakoen:


Evidence.


I can't find any SE or ESE winds. You?
I would have expected to find them here if there was a defined llc forming.
One of the GFS runs from yesterday or day before had it going SW into the gulf, meandering SW - S - SE then back NE over the lower peninsula again with the next front. That would be a coop, lol.
Quoting 18. StormJunkie:

I would have expected to find them here if there was a defined llc forming.


That station is too far north. Look at the stations over Florida and western Bahamas.
Thanks for the New Post Dynamic Duo...

Small Earthquake near here, barely felt it.
3.0 9km SW of Corona, California 2015-05-06 16:11:01 UTC 3.4 km
Quoting 15. nash36:



Evidently, GFS is showing a stronger ridge. Could be a bad run. Let's see what the 12z ECMWF does. Keep in mind, up until last night, most of the models had been bending the storm back W or slightly WSW at the end, so it appears at least for now, the GFS is going back to that solution.


This is a notoriously difficult setup to forecast/model. No trough off to the W to "pull" it. High pressure to the E to prevent it from heading that way. A weaker, but evident high barrier to the N, and an even weaker, but still evident area of higher pressure to the W. The very general track is pretty easy to predict, but the finer intricacies get incredibly difficult due to the lack of any significant steering. As noted by the CHS NWS.
Quoting 20. Drakoen:



That station is too far north. Look at the stations over Florida and western Bahamas.


I have, but can't find a SE wind, granted that could be for the lack of a good data point in said location. Again, looking for that station I posted to shift to SE or SW to give a better idea of any llc consolidation. No question the south end of the elongated area has W winds...As evidenced by Settlement Point, but that does not directly correlate to a closed llc.
Quoting 22. StormJunkie:



This is a notoriously difficult setup to forecast/model. No trough off to the W to "pull" it. High pressure to the W to prevent it from heading that way. A weaker, but evident high barrier to the N, and an even weaker, but still evident area of higher pressure to the W. The very general track is pretty easy to predict, but the finer intricacies get incredibly difficult due to the lack of any significant steering. As noted by the CHS NWS.


We shall see, SJ. Forecasts may have to be tweaked. Myrtle might be a safe bet at this time.
Latest SFC Obs:

My favorite time of year! Woohoo! Here's to some interesting weather this Summer!
Bring this thing straight to Myrtle Beach! We have had pretty close calls on several of the A storms since I got here in 2007!
12z HWRF init is completely botched for some reason. The result is erroneous spin-up to a 1003mb low on the 3-hour forecast, for which the valid time has already passed.



Thanks doks!
ascat took a swing and a miss this run


turning to el nino for a moment.......mjo finally gonna visit the western pacific again.....only about a month and a half later than when the el nino hypsters of blake and ventrice said it would



SPC has added a 10% hatched tornado risk area across portions of Kansas and Nebraska:

Quoting 33. TropicalAnalystwx13:

SPC has added a 10% hatched tornado risk area across portions of Kansas and Nebraska:




An enhanced risk now.
Levi, out side of the completely botched pressure...Structurally it seems the run may be ok?
In the context of obs discussion, here is the sum total of all METAR, buoy, ship, and marine station obs that report atmospheric conditions for 16Z. The only stations missing are some along the coast where I've required a 50 km separation between plotted obs to prevent clutter.

Click for full-size:

Quoting 35. StormJunkie:

Levi, out side of the completely botched pressure...Structurally it seems the run may be ok?


The pressure is fine. The 55 kt winds at 10m are not.
Quoting 37. Levi32:



The pressure is fine. The 55 kt winds at 10m are not.
Levi will you do a video today?
Did I miss something? Since when is 60% a medium chance?
Quoting 40. wxgeek723:

Did I miss something? Since when is 60% a medium chance?


NHC changed their tactics. Again...
POSS T.C.F.A.
90L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 40. wxgeek723:

Did I miss something? Since when is 60% a medium chance?
high chance starts at 70 percent
Thanks Dr. Here are the Noaa definitions for tropical and sub-tropical depressions; now we wait to see if the Invest can pull it off before heading towards cooler waters to the North; We will be looking for a LCC and overall wind speeds near  the core if one does form and NHC does send recon off to try to find a closed low tomorrow:

Tropical Depression:A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Subtropical Depression:A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Notice that the wind-speed criteria is identical.
Quoting 44. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. Here are the Noaa definitions for tropical and sub-tropical depressions; now we wait to see if the Invest can pull it off before heading towards cooler waters to the North; We will be looking for a LCC and overall wind speeds near  the core if one does form and NHC does send recon off to try to find a closed low tomorrow:

Tropical Depression:A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Subtropical Depression:A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Notice that the wind-speed criteria is identical.



Let's hope there is a closed low.
Quoting 40. wxgeek723:

Did I miss something? Since when is 60% a medium chance?


Been some changes..
30% is also a low chance now.
Makes sense.. 30-50% being medium makes less sense than 40-60%
Quoting 32. ricderr:

turning to el nino for a moment.......mjo finally gonna visit the western pacific again.....only about a month and a half later than when the el nino hypsters of blake and ventrice said it would






Speaking of ENSO, (( also posted this on Tropicsweatherpr's blog) I just happened to recently find the file to the PDO & NINO region SSTs/Anomalies going back to 1854 w/ the relatively new ERSSTv4 dataset. Like the CPC, I plan on applying a 30 year moving base period, updated every 5 yrs to the NINO 3.4 data to calculate the tri-monthly averaged SSTs anomalies. (in this case, I'll extend my analysis back to 1871). It will be interesting to see what I find, as NOAA still currently uses the older ERSSTv3b dataset in their ONI calculations...

This file is up to date & extends back to January 1854.
Link
12z CMC


Total precip
Base Radial Velocity .50 elevation 124 nm range



This and SFC obs seem quite clear to point to a surface low. Sure, it's not particularly well defined, but to me it's quite obvious that it's there.

I don't see the reason for a lack of confidence in it's existence. I could be wrong, but that's just me.
Noul starting to look intense..

Quoting 13. pablosyn:

Already like that? O_O






The GFS brings it down to 880mb in the long range. Will be an interesting one to watch!
WSI 4 KM Tropical RPM Model, showing the big donut hole center which would indicate a subtropical depression or storm.

Typhoon NOUL Rainbow Loop



West Palm Beach

Humidity 74%
Wind Speed NW 10 mph
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.3 mb)
Dewpoint 69°F (21°C)
Visibility 8.00 mi
Heat Index 80°F (27°C)
Last update 6 May 12:53 pm EDT
58. Ed22
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:



This and SFC obs seem quite clear to point to a surface low. Sure, it's not particularly well defined, but to me it's quite obvious that it's there.

I don't see the reason for a lack of confidence in it's existence. I could be wrong, but that's just me.
its getting better organized and the LLC is being becoming well-fined at every satellite loop....
Noticeable amount of very high SSTs in the Indian Ocean. Mostly of the Horn of Africa. Looking at the opening page on WU.
Might translate into a lot of storms as they drift west!

Sort of Invest-ually relaxed start to the season, a bit like throwing into the Atlantic, a damp squib, (or firework, pyrotechnic.)
We shall see I still don't think this el Nino is going to cause much of a major upset, then again I have been wrong so many times before.

Warm in our part of Spain with the wheat already being harvested and the hay cut and dried. Probably about the earliest I remember it in 20 years.
Rain over to the north of us but fading away.

Roll on Invest 2.
"The appearance of 90L on May 6 this year marks the third earliest arrival of the year's first "Invest":

2015: May 6
2014: June 4
2013: May 18
2012: February 5
2011: March 10
2010: May 24
2009: May 18
2008: May 31
2007: May 8
2006: June 10

Wouldn't the February 5 2012 and the March 10 2011 be late storms from the previous season? If not It must go by dates then and not by weather patterns. Just asking.
Meanwhile, back on the ranch...

First Severe Thunderstorm Warning Of The Day!!!


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC015-061830-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0200.150506T1746Z-150506T1830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1246 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
BOONE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANADARKO...FORT COBB...GRACEMONT...BOONE...ALBERT AND FORT COBB
RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 9849 3516 9819 3486 9841 3485 9857
3486 9862 3488 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 206DEG 24KT 3487 9856

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
A small RH X-Section from WFL (left side of image) extending E (right side of image) by 372 miles... RAP @17Z



90L won't be a happy camper for quite a while.
Quoting 65. WxLogic:

A small RH X-Section from WFL (left side of image) extending E (right side of image) by 372 miles... RAP @17Z



90L won't be a happy camper for quite a while.


Doesn't help its chances for becoming a purely tropical system, but subtropical cyclones can play by a different set of rules when it comes to dry air. I suspect 90L will eventually evolve into a system with a similar appearance to Subtropical Storm Andrea in May 2007.

To Bob Henson
RE: Warned OK cell near Medicine Park... and the Spring Experiment
The Cell...
was NOT seen on wu nexrad, Frederick., OK reflectivity at 1728
first came into view on wu nexrad, Frederick, OK at 1737
was severe warned WARNED at 1746

18 minutes...

Wonder what the experiment at NSSL saw?

Really, these cells pop and run so quick, I don't see how predicting an hour ahead is relevant for many of them. By the time an hour goes by, a new supercell could be causing a tornado.

One fine OK eve, I watched with my eyes as a storm grew from a small, cottony puff into a giant, ice cream cone supercell. Took just short of an hour for that to happen. Caused a tornado in/near Pauls Valley.
68. JRRP

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...THE
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1015 MB LOCATED OVER THE NW
BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS OF 1200 UTC WAS NEAR 27N79W.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
Needs to be a bit more east.
Quoting 67. Barefootontherocks:

To Bob Henson
RE: Warned OK cell near Medicine Park... and the Spring Experiment
The Cell...
was NOT seen on wu nexrad, Frederick., OK reflectivity at 1728
first came into view on wu nexrad, Frederick, OK at 1737
was severe warned WARNED at 1746

18 minutes...

Wonder what the experiment at NSSL saw?

Really, these cells pop and run so quick, I don't see how predicting an hour ahead is relevant for many of them. By the time an hour goes by, a new supercell could be causing a tornado.

One fine OK eve, I watched with my eyes as a storm grew from a small, cottony puff into a giant, ice cream cone supercell. Took just short of an hour for that to happen. Caused a tornado in/near Pauls Valley.
LPL. Already cancelled warning. Cell split, looks like.
112 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

Sorry to interrupt the tropics flow.

I do think it would be interesting what the experimenters identified on that cell and what they'll see on it (now 2) from here on in.
Quoting 60. Fla55Native:

"The appearance of 90L on May 6 this year marks the third earliest arrival of the year's first "Invest":

2015: May 6
2014: June 4
2013: May 18
2012: February 5
2011: March 10
2010: May 24
2009: May 18
2008: May 31
2007: May 8
2006: June 10

Wouldn't the February 5 2012 and the March 10 2011 be late storms from the previous season? If not It must go by dates then and not by weather patterns. Just asking.


The hurricane season is June 1 through November 1. I believe that if an invest showed up in Jan they would consider it an early one for that year's season. In both cases you mention, that early invest was the beginning of that year's hurricane season. Just my 2 cents worth, could be totally wrong.

Weather here a bit hot, somewhat cloudy. Looks like hot and cloudy for the rest of the week, then thunderstorms for the weekend.

I'm surprised we have an invest already. According to the global sea surface temperature map, it doesn't look like there is enough hot water there to keep it going, much less turn it into anything significant. I'll be very surprised if this becomes a tropical storm. However, this seems to be signaling an active hurricane season, so we should all be on the watch (at least all of us who live in the Hurricane Magnet a.k.a Florida).
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:



This and SFC obs seem quite clear to point to a surface low. Sure, it's not particularly well defined, but to me it's quite obvious that it's there.

I don't see the reason for a lack of confidence in it's existence. I could be wrong, but that's just me.

I think there's more than one. That loop, in addition to surface observations, show fairly clearly the low-level circulation east of Lake Okeechobee. However, there also appears to be some sort of circulation associated with the convection well east of the Florida-Georgia line. Two centers in an overall broad cyclonic circulation--very subtropical like.

Quoting 60. Fla55Native:

"The appearance of 90L on May 6 this year marks the third earliest arrival of the year's first "Invest":

2015: May 6
2014: June 4
2013: May 18
2012: February 5
2011: March 10
2010: May 24
2009: May 18
2008: May 31
2007: May 8
2006: June 10

Wouldn't the February 5 2012 and the March 10 2011 be late storms from the previous season? If not It must go by dates then and not by weather patterns. Just asking.


NHC goes by calendar year for out-of-season storm formation. If that invest from February 5, 2012 did develop, it would have been considered apart of the 2012 hurricane season. Early formations like that are rare, but have happened. See the 1952 Groundhog Day storm; Link
NWS Miami made mention of the possibility of an East Coast sea breeze developing today in their discussion earlier. Not so sure anymore reading the update this afternoon as the flow is becoming better established into 90L. Long story short it will be a good bellwether for what's going on at the surface with 90L aside from obs.
Good afternoon,

For the usual bloggers who are interested, as well as any newcomers, I've posted a new video discussion on Invest 90L:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, May 6th, 2015
Quoting 36. Levi32:

In the context of obs discussion, here is the sum total of all METAR, buoy, ship, and marine station obs that report atmospheric conditions for 16Z. The only stations missing are some along the coast where I've required a 50 km separation between plotted obs to prevent clutter.

Click for full-size:




Hey Levi where is your next video
I love those vids you do
VIIRS of Noul
Yeah, it definitely looks like a larger circulation is trying to become dominant. Time will tell.
90L Click pic for loop.
83. vis0
just wundering what Grothar thinks of the blobitto coming off the Texas shores.


wanted to give him a call on his hotline but too many dry brushes around here to use smoke signals.
For those who aren't yet bored with our recent German weather (sorry if I do): Third "Inside the tornado"-video from Buetzow emerges (others which I've posted earlier in here are now in the comments of my blog), with one foul word. - Poor trees; look at them before and after the impact! ... As Germans aren't used to this sort of violent storms (probably a F3) and there isn't a specific tornado warning system established a lot went on with recording their videos and were taken by surprise.



BBC weather video, May 6, 2015 with meteorological explanations:
Tornado devastates German town
061805Z MMM YY
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NLMC/OVLY2/0087/MAY
OVLY/TCFA/061800Z5/MAY/1OF1/TCFA AL9015/METOC
LINE/2//G/264800N0/0792400W2/292400N7/0793000W9
LINE/2//G/264800N0/0773600W3/264200N4/0811800W8
LINE/2//G/264200N4/0811800W8/291800N0/0813000W2
LINE/2//G/291800N0/0813000W2/292400N7/0773600W3
LINE/2//G/292400N7/0773600W3/264800N0/0773600W3
TEXT/20//G/254200N3/0793000W9/TCFA AL9015
TEXT/20//G/244200N2/0793000W9/VALID UNTIL 071800Z
TEXT/20//G/234200N1/0793000W9/WINDS: 20-25 KTS
TEXT/20//G/224200N0/0793000W9/MVG: N AT 06 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT

ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 150506120000
2015050612
26.8 280.6
29.4 280.5
100
26.8 280.6
061800
1505061800
1
WTNT21 KNGU 061800Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.8N 79.4W TO 29.4N 79.5W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POSSIBLE
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
FROM AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS:INVEST 90L IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 26.7N 79.3W MOVING
NORTH AT 05KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM AND INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 071800Z.//9015050506 246N 762W 20
9015050512 249N 770W 20
9015050518 253N 778W 20
9015050600 258N 788W 25
9015050606 262N 793W 25
9015050612 268N 794W 25

For the past 3 hours the wind has switched over from east to west or west/northwest at Freeport, Grand Bahamas.
Quoting 40. wxgeek723:

Did I miss something? Since when is 60% a medium chance?


The NHC announced last month that the percentages have changed for the 2015 Hurricane Season and on...

OLD RANGES:
Low: 0%-20%
Med: 30%-50%
High: 60%-100%

NEW RANGES AS OF 2015 Hurricane Season and future seasons:
Low: 0-30%
Med: 40%-60%
High: 70%-100%


It wasn't well announced so I am sure you are not the only one with that question lol. Also, I felt that 30 % for a med chance and 60% for a high chance was too low and not confident enough for there categories. (low, med, high)
This wind map model shows 38 mph sustained with gusts to 44 mph just prior to landfalling . Just another model to look at. 44 mph wind on coastal South Carolina.
Climate patterns in the southeastern United States and Cuba, in May and June. I have a post about this on my blog.
Link
first T.C.F.A. 25days 8hrs 31 mins before start of atlantic season
Looks like our invest is getting its act together
T.C.F.A.
90L/INV/XX/CX
Quoting 93. wxgeek723:

Looks like our invest is getting its act together
lets not scare peeps come on now
Quoting 93. wxgeek723:

Looks like our invest is getting its act together

Remember that..The stuff of nightmares..My aunt had damage in Asheville...Hugo was a killer beast.
Watching Ben McMillan LIVE Storm Chase, huge storm with strong low level rotation, in Kansas.
Quoting 98. 882MB:

Watching Ben McMillan LIVE Storm Chase, huge storm with strong low level rotation, in Kansas.


KOCO is right under the rotation.

EDIT -- for the storm that's just south of OKC.
Good afternoon everyone long time no see. It looks like 90L might become Ana in the next couple of days.
KFOR has some impressive video of the wall-cloud from their chopper SW of Oklahoma City. Funnel is about to drop it looks.

Link
T.C.F.A.
90L/INV/XX/XX
29.7N/78.7W
Quoting 100. allancalderini:

Good afternoon everyone long time no see. It looks like 90L might become Ana in the next couple of days.
12 to 18 HRS I think
right after sundown it will take it up a notch
Quoting 101. CybrTeddy:

KFOR has some impressive video of the wall-cloud from their chopper SW of Oklahoma City. Funnel is about to drop it looks.

Link


'Particularly dangerous supercell' (quote) with a hook signature and tornado warning, and guess where it's headed for? Moore.
Quoting 97. hydrus:


107. 882MB
Newly formed Tropical Depression Seven:










Quoting 106. tropicalnewbee:




OK try that again. On the SE side when the clouds break in the middle it looks like an llc is forming has formed. I'm no expert though
Quoting 101. CybrTeddy:

KFOR has some impressive video of the wall-cloud from their chopper SW of Oklahoma City. Funnel is about to drop it looks.

Link



Dangerous location. That's the same area where the Moore tornadoes originated in previous years.
Nasty looking storm. Very pronounced hook echo, but rotation is pretty weak/broad. It's the only game in town in that area though so it's worth watching, may produce additional tornadoes. Heading in the general direction of Norman, Moore, and the OKC metro.

111. beell
Quoting 74. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think there's more than one. That loop, in addition to surface observations, show fairly clearly the low-level circulation east of Lake Okeechobee. However, there also appears to be some sort of circulation associated with the convection well east of the Florida-Georgia line. Two centers in an overall broad cyclonic circulation--very subtropical like.




I think the southern circulation will die on the vine. There is still to much mid and upper level baroclinic support in place farther north.
112. IDTH
Did not expect to be back here so soon.
114. vis0
still bugs me that February pTwF (TD/TS/Hurr) are considered "Early" they seem Late, till march comes around, (late to me (Dec Jan Feb) while Early (Mar Apr May) but i'm looking at things as if divided numerically in half
Quoting 111. beell:



I think the southern circulation will die on the vine. There is still to much mid and upper level baroclinic support in place farther north.


Southern rotation had been absorbed in the larger circulation the last time I checked.
East coast sea breeze starting to push inland, could get some good storms fire up on the east coast soon.

Not much going on at the surface with 90L, at least where it was previously located, if the sea breeze is moving in.
Quoting 111. beell:



I think the southern circulation will die on the vine. There is still to much mid and upper level baroclinic support in place farther north.

unless it gets pulled in under the mid and upper then stack
which it could very well do
have too see now
this is only a small window of opportunity
24 to 36 hrs


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 118. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


unless it gets pulled in under the mid and upper then stack
which it could very well do
have too see now
this is only a small window of opportunity
24 to 36 hrs


This will not get named, there is too much dry air getting shoved right into it.
Quoting 122. tampabaymatt:



This will not get named, there is too much dry air getting shoved right into it.


Subtropical Storms don't care about Dry Air
Quoting 111. beell:



I think the southern circulation will die on the vine. There is still to much mid and upper level baroclinic support in place farther north.


Looks like a Broad Low for now...

CIMSS vort maps show the vorticity stretching to the northeast as the center redevelops.


storms in OK
Or two storms... :P
Quoting 122. tampabaymatt:



This will not get named, there is too much dry air getting shoved right into it.


well we are gonna see
that's the NHC call
and well its up to them
KFOR is always on top of those tornados..

They save lives every year with their severe weather coverage..
Just to note, IMHO, seeing similarities in the development of 90L as saw in the transformation of H Sandy into a hybrid subtropical storm when it was roughly in the same location, both with dry air and especially the location / trajectory of subtropical jet stream coming across the Gulf and Florida, wrapping around the base of the surface low feature. All cyclonic aloft.

Water vapor imagery from NRL Monterey today of 90L is quite reminiscent of H Sandy while off FL / N of Bahamas Oct 27 2012. Certainly early and late season climatology upper air jet dynamics tend to be similar. Otherwise, don't get carried away reading too much into this comparison, lol.

Supercell with well-defined hook near chickasha. Wall cloud nw of the town.
131. 882MB
This does not look good, people in and around Moore, need to closely monitor this storm.

Quoting 131. 882MB:

This does not look good, people in and around Moore, need to closely monitor this storm.





It's looking like it'll pass north of chickasha. No tornado yet as far as i know.
The storm is gone from Melbourne, Fl. Bright and Sunny now through Mothers Day!
Oh look, Moore is in the path of a well-defined supercell. We've never seen that before.

Quoting 131. 882MB:

This does not look good, people in and around Moore, need to closely monitor this storm.




http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

For those that want to watch that cell in real time. KFOR's coverage is great.
Burr Oak, KS was just hit by a tornado:

Damaging tornado just nw of burr oak, kansas. Folks in amber, oklahoma need to take shelter now!
Had a full-press afternoon at work. Noting from the alert below that the invest it could go tropical or sub-tropical. Not a major storm by any means down-stream  but an interesting case-study on which way it goes.  

Per some of the charts; the surface low is rather elongated and not compact, and while shear seems more favorable, there is lots of dry air around getting entrained in the circulation (and proximity to land on the Western flank).................It has a short window of opportunity to to go tropical IMHO (as a low grade depression) over the next 24 before losing those characteristics once it moves North away from the Gulf Stream.  

I think the dry air, and less convection than this morning, will favor sub-tropical over tropical from the current look of things.










139. 882MB
Quoting 135. Michfan:



http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

For those that want to watch that cell in real time. KFOR's coverage is great.


I have been watching Michfan, thanks.
My apologies to the Bloggers and folks following the developments in the mid-west; I just clicked on my national radar loops..............Three tornado warnings and tornadoes takes precedent over a weak tropical system off the Coast.
7 mins ago

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 427 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 427 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 426 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 422 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 419 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 418 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 417 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 412 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 403 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 358 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
Keeper where is that?

12z GEOS-5 has landfall on Sunday morning at the SC/GA border. Really lingers right off shore with coastal rain on and off for days.
Quoting 135. Michfan:



http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

For those that want to watch that cell in real time. KFOR's coverage is great.


Is Dr. Henson the one in Norman right now? They'll get a good look at it.
It looks like it's moving toward blanchard.
I really wish this met on KFOR would stop labeling every scud cloud as a EF-1 or EF-2.
Southwest of Moore

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

OKC051-062145-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150506T2145Z/
GRADY OK-
435 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY...

AT 434 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
AMBER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLANCHARD...TUTTLE...AMBER...BRIDGE CREEK...POCASSET AND MIDDLEBERG.

LAT...LON 3508 9792 3520 9795 3531 9767 3509 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 236DEG 18KT 3516 9783

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$
Tornado on the ground 3 miles east of amber!
Quoting 147. CybrTeddy:

I really wish this met on KFOR would stop labeling every scud cloud as a EF-1 or EF-2.


I think for the general public its better to overdo it a bit, but i agree those of us with more weather knowledge have to kind of go "eh?"
062134  
TORGID  
KSC089-062200-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0011.150506T2134Z-150506T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
434 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
 
* AT 434 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MONTROSE...OR 21 MILES WEST OF  
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
LOVEWELL STATE PARK AROUND 445 PM CDT.  
WEBBER AROUND 450 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3974 9795 3976 9809 3997 9809 3996 9793  
3994 9793  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 192DEG 33KT 3979 9804  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
FAY  
 
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The Nexlab NE Page

The Nexlab KS Page

Main Text Page

5 mins ago

Rotation is still generally weak. Let's hope it stays that way as the cell heads toward cities that have been through so much already.

I see we are open for business! I wouldn't mind if 90L decided to come up here and water my gardens. :-)
Quoting 143. Skyepony:

Keeper where is that?

12z GEOS-5 has landfall on Sunday morning at the SC/GA border. Really lingers right off shore with coastal rain on and off for days.

near moore all of them sorry no label have to zoom it up 200 percent too see em

NEC129-062215-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0012.150506T2142Z-150506T2215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
442 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT  
 
* AT 442 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BOSTWICK...OR 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BOSTWICK AROUND 445 PM CDT.  
SUPERIOR AROUND 450 PM CDT.  
NORA AROUND 505 PM CDT.  
NELSON AROUND 510 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4000 9808 4000 9827 4010 9827 4026 9823  
4027 9807 4020 9790  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 199DEG 29KT 4001 9818  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
ROSSI  
 
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The Nexlab NE Page

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863  
WFUS54 KOUN 062143  
TOROUN  
OKC051-087-062230-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0017.150506T2143Z-150506T2230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
443 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 443 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AMBER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NEWCASTLE...BLANCHARD...TUTTLE...AMBER AND BRIDGE CREEK.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3513 9786 3524 9788 3531 9764 3515 9761  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 235DEG 8KT 3516 9783  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
30  
 
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Yikes on that wall cloud east of amber. <:(
Still a very broad rotation, but there are satellite vortices. Headed right for Moore.
SVRHD STORM Team has a rain wrapped tornado on their feed S.W. of Oklahoma City.
Wow..KFOR..
Marc Dillard better haul it out there!!
Lawrence McEwan has a pretty good feed going right now.
839  
WFUS53 KICT 062152  
TORICT  
KSC079-113-115-173-062230-  
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0016.150506T2152Z-150506T2230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
452 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
NORTH CENTRAL SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 451 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNT  
HOPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BENTLEY AROUND 455 PM CDT.  
HALSTEAD AND BURRTON AROUND 505 PM CDT.  
HESSTON AROUND 520 PM CDT.  
MOUNDRIDGE AROUND 525 PM CDT.  
 
#  
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 49.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR  
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3781 9751 3785 9769 3824 9766 3824 9726  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 203DEG 37KT 3788 9763  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
JAKUB  
 
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View from the TDWR:

3 mins old near Moore ok

It was a multi-vortex tornado back in the rain. They were really close to it for short time and they had to preposition.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 456 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 454 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 454 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 452 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 452 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
173. 882MB
Definitely a rain wrapped tornado, with an eye, on radar. Absolutely Incredible supercell to look at on radar. WOWWW!!
Seeing reports of a large, rain-wrapped, multi-vortex tornado near Bridge Creek, OK, headed toward Newcastle. Radar shows a debris signature.

I can't believe this is happening, again.
Yeah this looks really bad. Some of the live ground footage was wide and crazy looking, fast moving. Chopper showed a trailer demolished.
Jesus Christ, that's some really strong rotation sw of okc!
On my phone but it sure looks like a very strong rotation on that storm. Velocities are crazy.
"It looks like May 3rd stuff"- Hank Baker

Wow.
Looks like the best guess/elongated center is due S of this buoy. Maybe due east of the Fl-Ga line?
Tornado Emergency for Newcastle
Quoting 175. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seeing reports of a large, rain-wrapped, multi-vortex tornado near Bridge Creek, OK, headed toward Newcastle. Radar shows a debris signature.

I can't believe this is happening, again.


I saw it briefly about 10 minutes ago on SVRHD's feed and it was a big rain wrapped tornado.
They using El Reno comparisms to describe the tornado..
Where can I learn about the different forces at work that create a Tornado in mid America and a Tornado in a land falling hurricane. The forces behind a Sharknado I understand.
top white circle oak city below that moore
4 mins old
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 504 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 503 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 502 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
Quoting 179. WIBadgerWeather:

"It looks like May 3rd stuff"- Hank Baker

Wow.



It's in the same area as may 3rd
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
503 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

OKC051-087-062230-
/O.COR.KOUN.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150506T2230Z/
MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-
503 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NEWCASTLE WEST TO BRIDGE CREEK AND AREAS
SOUTH OF THE H.E. BAILEY TURNPIKE...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL MCCLAIN AND NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR BRIDGE CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NEWCASTLE WEST TO BRIDGE CREEK AND AREAS SOUTH
OF THE H.E. BAILEY TURNPIKE. TAKE COVER NOW. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWCASTLE...BLANCHARD...TUTTLE AND BRIDGE CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9782 3522 9784 3531 9764 3515 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 224DEG 9KT 3517 9778

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.75IN

$$
Holy moley, that thing is HUGE. Another tornado emergency from the NWS. Ugh...
Southridge Creek...then Moore..then Norman
Are you freaking kidding me? Again!?

HUGE WEDGE on the ground!!
VIL is pegged

Quoting 192. CybrTeddy:

Are you freaking kidding me? Again!?

HUGE WEDGE on the ground!!


You know, I always felt as though the past Moore storms' locations were flukes. There has got to be something else at play here.
534  
WFUS53 KTOP 062210  
TORTOP  
KSC029-157-062230-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0003.150506T2210Z-150506T2230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
510 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 507 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HEN EGG SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
COURTLAND AROUND 530 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3980 9793 3980 9783 3962 9788 3960 9789  
3957 9790 3956 9791 3956 9793 3957 9794  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 193DEG 30KT 3960 9795  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...2.00IN  
 
 
 
SANDERS  
 
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Only two years after that devastating tornado :( and during rush hour.
Moore Population..
58,414
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 512 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GRAND JUNCTION CO - KGJT 411 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 510 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
This is looking more like Norman is in the bullseye, not Moore. Or could go in between—but that's all heavily populated area, from Newcastle onward, so this is bad news no matter what.
top white circle oak city below that moore
3 mins old
038  
WFUS54 KOUN 062215  
TOROUN  
OKC003-047-053-093-062245-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0019.150506T2215Z-150506T2245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
515 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT  
 
* AT 514 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARRIER...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POND CREEK...LAHOMA...KREMLIN...HILLSDALE...  
CARRIER AND NORTH ENID.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3637 9810 3648 9817 3674 9788 3652 9768  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 232DEG 23KT 3646 9807  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
..SPEG.  
 
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264  
WUUS54 KOUN 062215  
SVROUN  
TXC023-275-487-062300-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0209.150506T2215Z-150506T2300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
515 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
BAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
SOUTH CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT  
 
* AT 515 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST  
OF RED SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO  
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SEYMOUR...RED SPRINGS...LAKE KEMP...MABELLE AND BOMARTON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3351 9951 3375 9954 3377 9950 3377 9949  
3375 9949 3375 9948 3378 9948 3391 9919  
3367 9895 3365 9896 3345 9933  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 227DEG 22KT 3359 9934  
 
HAIL...1.75IN  
WIND...70MPH  
 
 
 
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This tornado looks almost stationary. If it's violent enough, i wouldn't be surprised if it tore off asphalt like in new pekin, indiana.
150  
WFUS53 KGID 062217  
TORGID  
KSC123-062245-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0016.150506T2217Z-150506T2245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
517 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT  
 
* AT 517 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GLEN ELDER AROUND 535 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3934 9849 3941 9849 3957 9836 3957 9807  
3925 9835  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 217DEG 33KT 3937 9839  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
ROSSI  
 
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463  
WFUS53 KGID 062218  
TORGID  
NEC059-169-062245-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0017.150506T2218Z-150506T2245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
518 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT  
 
* AT 518 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DESHLER...OR 27 MILES NORTH OF  
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
CARLETON AROUND 530 PM CDT.  
SHICKLEY AND BRUNING AROUND 535 PM CDT.  
STRANG AROUND 540 PM CDT.  
OHIOWA AROUND 545 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4044 9742 4015 9770 4015 9782 4030 9782  
4053 9775  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 209DEG 43KT 4020 9777  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
GUERRERO  
 
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Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TYPHOON DODONG
5:00 AM PhST May 7 2015
=====================

The typhoon east of Visayas has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "DODONG"

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Dodong [NOUL] (972 hPa) located at 10.2N 135.0E or 1,040 km east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Additional Information
================
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to at times intense within the 150-200 km radius of the typhoon.

This typhoon is expected to affect the eastern section of Visayas for the next 24 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
top white circle oak city below that moore
3 mins old
Between slow internet and my radar feed that decided to stop updating, I couldn't be anymore aggravated right now.
New hook reforming between the spur and Blanchard. If this pans out, some chasers are going to get caught.
230  
WFUS53 KGID 062222  
TORGID  
NEC035-062300-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0018.150506T2222Z-150506T2300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
522 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT  
 
* AT 522 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER EDGAR...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SUTTON AND SARONVILLE AROUND 550 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4036 9787 4036 9807 4062 9801 4061 9782  
4059 9782  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 207DEG 31KT 4038 9799  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
FAY  
 
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 524 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 524 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
This is pretty insane. All the focus is on the OKC area obviously, but check out Kansas; in total there are 13 NWS tornado warnings in effect right now! I don't ever recall so many at once. Several with confirmed tornadoes also. This is an outbreak.
Forbes sayin the tornado made a left turn and instead of heading toward Norman....
It's goin to Moore...
Go figure..
Looks like the storm is recycling closer to Norman, OK
067  
WFUS54 KOUN 062229  
TOROUN  
OKC027-087-062300-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0021.150506T2229Z-150506T2300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
529 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT  
 
* AT 529 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWCASTLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WESTERN NORMAN...MOORE AND NEWCASTLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3519 9762 3523 9764 3533 9747 3521 9745  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 229DEG 16KT 3522 9758  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
30  
 
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Quoting 215. MAweatherboy1:

This is pretty insane. All the focus is on the OKC area obviously, but check out Kansas; in total there are 13 NWS tornado warnings in effect right now! I don't ever recall so many at once. Several with confirmed tornadoes also. This is an outbreak.


Yup. Several violent tornadoes. This is quickly becoming a tornado outbreak.
Tornado on the ground heading to Norman
Forbes: Two circulations now. One going to Norman, other to Moore.
An insane cycle just happened, intense hook echo just appeared and heading right into Norman.
Another tornado, now in Norman!


Tornado emergency for Norman

These storms are switching direction too fast..people stuck in traffic..just not good at all..
77  
WFUS53 KICT 062230  
TORICT  
KSC173-062315-  
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0017.150506T2230Z-150506T2315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
530 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 530 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VIOLA...OR 7 MILES WEST OF CLEARWATER...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GARDEN PLAIN AROUND 540 PM CDT.  
GODDARD AROUND 545 PM CDT.  
WEST WICHITA AND WICHITA EISENHOWER NATIONAL AIRPORT AROUND 550 PM  
CDT.  
COLWICH AND ANDALE AROUND 555 PM CDT.  
MAIZE AROUND 600 PM CDT.  
BENTLEY AROUND 605 PM CDT.  
VALLEY CENTER AROUND 610 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LAKE  
AFTON.  
 
#  
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 19.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3749 9771 3790 9764 3786 9724 3747 9752  
3747 9756  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 203DEG 35KT 3753 9763  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.25IN  
 
 
 
JAKUB  
 
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Let me be the first to introduce Hurricane Norman.

Quoting 217. CybrTeddy:

Looks like the storm is recycling closer to Norman, OK


SVRHD got really upset at the police because they were stopping/holding traffic in locations possibly in the path of the tornado.
Ouch.

Whoever's in norman take shelter now.

NWS Norman @NWSNorman · 6m 6 minutes ago

530pm - URGENT! New circulation forming quickly and a tornado warning is issued for Newcastle, Norman and parts of Moore. Take cover! #okwx
458  
WFUS54 KOUN 062236 CCA  
TOROUN  
OKC027-087-062300-  
/O.COR.KOUN.TO.W.0021.150506T2229Z-150506T2300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
536 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT  
 
* AT 529 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWCASTLE...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WESTERN NORMAN...MOORE AND NEWCASTLE.  
 
LAT...LON 3519 9762 3523 9764 3533 9747 3521 9745  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 239DEG 9KT 3522 9758  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
30  
 
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top white circle oak city below that moore then norman
4 mins old
983  
WFUS53 KTOP 062237  
TORTOP  
KSC157-062315-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0005.150506T2237Z-150506T2315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
537 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 534 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR SCANDIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO EAST OF COURTLAND AT  
535 PM.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  
WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...  
BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION  
POSSIBLE.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL REPUBLIC  
COUNTY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY  
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE  
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID  
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE  
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4001 9752 3977 9775 3978 9788 4001 9777  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 211DEG 27KT 3981 9781  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
SANDERS  
 
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KOKH FOX 25 ‏@OKCFOX 1m1 minute ago

Tornado on the ground near Newcastle, heading towards Moore/Norman. http://bit.ly/1nHm2lH

WFUS53 KGID 062239  
TORGID  
NEC059-062315-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0020.150506T2239Z-150506T2315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
539 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 539 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SHICKLEY...OR 32 MILES SOUTH OF YORK...  
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GENEVA AROUND 555 PM CDT.  
FAIRMONT AROUND 605 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4035 9759 4035 9778 4070 9767 4070 9765  
4061 9740  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 201DEG 36KT 4040 9768  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
GUERRERO  
 
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Pat posted the warning in post 236; large, damaging tornado in the Belleville, KS area.

137  
WFUS53 KGID 062243  
TORGID  
KSC089-123-062315-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0021.150506T2243Z-150506T2315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
543 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 543 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF GLEN ELDER  
TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIPTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR...  
BELOIT AND JEWELL AROUND 605 PM CDT.  
RANDALL AROUND 610 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3934 9836 3939 9840 3959 9830 3968 9818  
3967 9793 3958 9793 3950 9804 3934 9828  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 218DEG 23KT 3953 9819 3940 9830  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
ROSSI  
 
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014  
WFUS54 KOUN 062244  
TOROUN  
OKC047-053-062315-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0022.150506T2244Z-150506T2315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
544 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 543 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLSDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POND CREEK...KREMLIN...HILLSDALE AND JEFFERSON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3648 9798 3658 9809 3685 9781 3662 9757  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 232DEG 23KT 3655 9796  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...2.75IN  
 
 
 
..SPEG.  
 
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top white circle oak city below that moore then norman
2 mins old
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNINGHASTINGS NE-KGID545 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
Oh boy. Scandia, Kansas just got hit by a large and potentially significant tornado.

<---standing down to enjoy Dinner.

Wow, just stepped in here to see what is going on in the Atlantic, obviously not much but the Midwest is on fire! I remember the days when I was stationed in Omaha at Offutt AFB, saw a few funnels, green skies and baseball size hail.

BASEMENT TIME...if you are in the Path!
The norman supercell cycled and is following robinson road west of norman.
This just moved through Scandia.

Tornado emergency for Norman that Tornado look mean to me watch out!
Mark Dillard has the tornado probably 500 feet in front of him.
Quoting 249. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This just moved through Scandia.


nice Tornado picture!!
These are very good looking hook echoes. Interestingly enough, TWC only gave the region a 4/5 TORCON this morning.
Marc Dillard is a brave soul..no way would I do what he is doing..
That KFOR guy literally got hit by the tornado, or within feet of it, live on TWC. Lucky it wasn't stronger.
Is it me or has the Norman cell transformed itself and is starting to get a hook echo forming again?
Quoting 253. win1gamegiantsplease:

These are very good looking hook echoes. Interestingly enough, TWC only gave the region a 4/5 TORCON this morning.


I tried to watch TWC about 30 minutes ago as the tornado passed through Bridge Creek.

Utterly inept coverage, they kept going to commercial break. Unbelievable.
Quoting 257. CybrTeddy:



I tried to watch TWC about 30 minutes ago as the tornado passed through Bridge Creek.

Utterly inept coverage, they kept going to commercial break. Unbelievable.


Not to mention keeping "Local on the 8s" on for us. KFOR here I come...
Quoting 258. WIBadgerWeather:



Not to mention keeping "Local on the 8s" on for us. KFOR here I come...




Go to KOCO instead. Mike morgan's an idiot. He's always rating tornadoes as they're happening.
Quoting 258. WIBadgerWeather:



Not to mention keeping "Local on the 8s" on for us. KFOR here I come...


Try News9. KFOR's met is acting incredibly unprofessional.

Link
Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:



Try News9. KFOR's met is acting incredibly unprofessional.

Link


I too dislike the frame-by-frame rating of the storms. However, they seem to have the best shots on the storm. You win some, you lose some with both.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 606 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 604 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 604 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 601 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 558 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
920  
WUUS54 KOUN 062309  
SVROUN  
OKC027-109-070000-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0216.150506T2309Z-150507T0000Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
609 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 609 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOORE...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...MIDWEST CITY...DEL CITY...  
CHOCTAW...SPENCER...NICOMA PARK...VALLEY BROOK...TINKER AIR FORCE  
BASE AND SMITH VILLAGE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3528 9755 3535 9761 3554 9737 3543 9715  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 226DEG 13KT 3535 9746  
 
HAIL...1.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
30  
 
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Mike Morgan is giving exact tornado ratings, and Dr. Forbes and Mike Bettes have spent most of the afternoon debating whether there's a tornado while the NWS has PDS Tornado Warnings and Tornado Emergencies out. Ov vey.
Lots of attention, rightly so, on OKC right now, but most dangerous storm at present may be the one north of Belleville, KS. Dangerous tornado headed straight for Hebron, NE!
The two cells to the SW of OKC also need to be watched.
Quoting 260. CybrTeddy:



Try News9. KFOR's met is acting incredibly unprofessional.

Link




They're pretty good too.
Quoting 259. TimTheWxMan:





Go to KOCO instead. Mike morgan's an idiot. He's always rating tornadoes as they're happening.


"Uh I think this could be an F1 maybe it was an F2 as it moved through this area possibly a low end F3 but definitely an F1 moving over I-35 right now"
Quoting 266. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mike Morgan is giving exact tornado ratings, and Dr. Forbes and Mike Bettes have spent most of the afternoon debating whether there's a tornado while the NWS has PDS Tornado Warnings and Tornado Emergencies out. Ov vey.



You don't give tornado ratings until after it happened. He also partially caused the traffic jams during the el reno tornado. These storms are rain-wrapped too.
243  
WFUS53 KGID 062314  
TORGID  
KSC089-123-062345-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0023.150506T2314Z-150506T2345Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
614 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
 
* AT 614 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORMOSO TO NEAR  
RANDALL TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLEN ELDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR...  
MONTROSE AROUND 620 PM CDT.  
FORMOSO AROUND 625 PM CDT.  
RANDALL AROUND 640 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3951 9827 3969 9817 3982 9806 3992 9793  
3959 9793 3951 9802  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 225DEG 23KT 3971 9802 3961 9809 3954 9820  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
ROSSI  
 
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Quoting 270. wxgeek723:



"Uh I think this could be an F1 maybe it was an F2 as it moved through this area possibly a low end F3 but definitely an F1 moving over I-35 right now"




Drinking contest for every time he does that... but we'd all be wasted within 5 minutes tops.
230  
WFUS54 KOUN 062317  
TOROUN  
OKC027-109-062345-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0024.150506T2317Z-150506T2345Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
617 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
 
* AT 617 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CITY...WESTERN NORMAN...MOORE...STANLEY DRAPER  
LAKE AND TINKER AIR FORCE BASE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3527 9748 3531 9753 3543 9741 3531 9731  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 212DEG 14KT 3531 9746  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
30  
 
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CWG has a picture of what appears to be a shelf cloud in Norman Oklahoma.
090  
WFUS53 KGID 062323  
TORGID  
NEC169-070000-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0024.150506T2323Z-150507T0000Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
623 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 623 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HEBRON...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF  
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
THE CITY OF HEBRON SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
HEBRON AROUND 630 PM CDT.  
GILEAD AROUND 635 PM CDT.  
BELVIDERE AROUND 645 PM CDT.  
BRUNING AND ALEXANDRIA AROUND 650 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4017 9737 4005 9760 4008 9767 4016 9770  
4035 9760 4035 9737  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 209DEG 29KT 4010 9761  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
GUERRERO  
 
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Quoting 276. washingtonian115:

CWG has a picture of what appears to be a shelf cloud in Norman Oklahoma.



That's good so at least it's becoming outflow dominant.
Quoting 273. TimTheWxMan:





Drinking contest for every time he does that... but we'd all be wasted within 5 minutes tops.


Is this a challenge? It sounds like a challenge.
Quoting 268. CybrTeddy:

The two cells to the SW of OKC also need to be watched.




The gameboard: and these cells may still be firing after sunset.
Quoting 271. TimTheWxMan:




You don't give tornado ratings until after it happened. He also partially caused the traffic jams during the el reno tornado. These storms are rain-wrapped too.


Hard to rate a tornado with a scale based off damage when you haven't seen said damage yet.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending northward from the
Bahamas to just offshore of the coast of the Carolinas are
associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located
a couple of hundred miles east of the northeast Florida coast.
Conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for
development over the next day or so while this system moves slowly
northward and then northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone
could form by tomorrow or Friday, and interests along the southeast
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States beginning
tomorrow. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
on this system by 2 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information,
see products from your local National Weather Service forecast
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
Quoting 268. CybrTeddy:

The two cells to the SW of OKC also need to be watched.

Good eye, just got a tornado warning for that.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062332
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending northward from the
Bahamas to just offshore of the coast of the Carolinas are
associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located
a couple of hundred miles east of the northeast Florida coast.
Conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for
development over the next day or so while this system moves slowly
northward and then northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone
could form by tomorrow or Friday, and interests along the southeast
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States beginning
tomorrow. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
on this system by 2 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information,
see products from your local National Weather Service forecast
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain

2nd tornado on the ground north of verden.
Quoting 286. MAweatherboy1:


Good eye, just got a tornado warning for that.


Yup. Let's hope OK metro's luck can hold.
Quoting 279. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is this a challenge? It sounds like a challenge.




Don't do it! No one wins!
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SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 631 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 631 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
I like to see the same people here complaining about KFOR coverage do what they do on live TV..

Its easy to sit on the internet in that lazy boy with your laptop in your lap and complain behind a handle than to get on TV while actual tornados are affecting lives are two different things..

but I digress..
Climate patterns in the southeastern United States and Cuba, in May and June. For more details visit my blog
Link
572  
WFUS54 KOUN 062336  
TOROUN  
OKC011-043-093-070000-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0026.150506T2336Z-150507T0000Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
636 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
CENTRAL MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 636 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF  
CANTON LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FAIRVIEW...RINGWOOD...CLEO SPRINGS...LONGDALE...ORIENTA...ISABELLA  
AND CANTON LAKE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF  
A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3646 9828 3631 9814 3605 9869 3617 9883  
3646 9843  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 232DEG 43KT 3615 9869  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
..SPEG.  
 
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Quoting 292. ncstorm:

I like to see the same people here complaining about KFOR coverage do what they do on live TV..

Its easy to sit on the internet in that lazy boy with your laptop in your lap and complain behind a handle but get on TV while actual tornados are affecting lives are two different things..

but I digress..




Mike morgan's the problem, otherwise their chopper coverage is superior!
Quoting 292. ncstorm:

I like to see the same people here complaining about KFOR coverage do what they do on live TV..

Its easy to sit on the internet in that lazy boy with your laptop in your lap and complain behind a handle but get on TV while actual tornados are affecting lives are two different things..

but I digress..

Nobody is above criticism. Claiming that a supercell is "only" capable of producing a F0 or F1 tornado is irresponsible, incorrect, and downright life-threatening.
Google the Gary England drinking game. It was the only way to stay sane while huddled in the shelter.
262  
WFUS54 KOUN 062339  
TOROUN  
OKC027-081-109-125-070030-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0027.150506T2339Z-150507T0030Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
639 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT  
 
* AT 639 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA CITY...MOVING EAST  
AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CHOCTAW...HARRAH...MCLOUD...NEWALLA AND DALE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3532 9734 3541 9734 3551 9705 3533 9703  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 265DEG 18KT 3535 9728  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
30  
 
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The leading edge of this storm Doug Drace is on is looking pretty ominous.
Quoting 259. TimTheWxMan:





Go to KOCO instead. Mike morgan's an idiot. He's always rating tornadoes as they're happening.


One would think he would have learned by now, especially after the El Rino tornado...
Quoting 292. ncstorm:

I like to see the same people here complaining about KFOR coverage do what they do on live TV..

Its easy to sit on the internet in that lazy boy with your laptop in your lap and complain behind a handle than to get on TV while actual tornados are affecting lives are two different things..

but I digress..


Shouting out tornado estimates on live television based on conjecture is wrong and unprofessional. What's more, we've seen worse before. During the May 31st, 2013 tornado he told his live viewers to "get into the cars and drive south", which is antithetical to common tornado sense -- get to the safest part of your house and take cover. A lot of mets, not just lazy boys on computers, have huge issues with this guys coverage.
Quoting 296. TimTheWxMan:





Mike morgan's the problem, otherwise their chopper coverage is superior!


So obviously you can do it better..Send in your resume and let them know..

Be sure to post the reply here..

VIL 124 nm range


This Atlantic storm looks to be about finished, continue to check back from time to time but everyone should have a good weather Mothers Day.
It be da triple cannon, aaargh'

TWC just showed if not a tornado then a funnel cloud near Bridge Creek.

Hardy, Nebraska tornado.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Crz-xOHx-t8
Quoting 304. ncstorm:



So obviously you can do it better..Send in your resume and let them know..

Be sure to post the reply here..






Refer to post 303.
The ticket has been punched for a Strong El-Nino to materialize come late June just 5 weeks away or so. Major WWB and major SOI crash beginning to materialize to bring the strongest event since likely 1997. Could also end up much stronger than 1997 by Fall/Winter.

All these Typhoons across the W-Pac will likely yeild on hell of a El-Nino come Fall


What is going on across Nino 4 is just a precursor to the type of event looming. here is a tweet from Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State.


Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach · 10h 10 hours ago

Warmest Nino 4 value in April since middle of the 19th century using NOAA ERSST v4 dataset. 0.1C warmer than 1915. @EricBlake12
I think its wrong guys..

I can understand if you talking about a cashier at McDonalds under performing at their job as it only involves a milk shake and Big Mac order being wrong, but this station is in the thick of things during tornado season and you discount their weather guy's job which is saving lives..people see your comment who don't know any better and think I shouldn't listen to Mike Morgan next time....If you plan on going in the same field just remember you would want the same courtesy extended to you and not to have some joe blow bashing you on the internet..

and Mike Morgan wasn't the only one stating tornado strength yet I don't see Reed, Emily or Marc getting ripped on here..

by the way..People were stuck in traffic not because of Mike Morgan but because the police was blocking and shutting down roads..

There is always going to be someone having a problem with the way people do things..those same people who have problems with Morgan also have people having problems with how they do things..doesn't mean you have to vocalize it to the general public who might discount his forecasts..you also have a responsibility here..

at the end of the day Morgan works at KFOR and we don't and that station manager's trust his forecasts enough to keep him on the air..

I'll leave it at that as I know how the hammer swings only one way around here. I'm trying to keep my ban free record going as its been over several months since my last jail sentence..

I'll pop back in later
That storm in northern oklahoma looks to hit wakita head on.
Daniel Swain‏@Weather_West·22 hrs22 hours ago

CFS model now projecting such an off-the-charts #ElNino that the CPC just adjusted the vertical axis!! @EricHolthaus
Quoting 316. TimTheWxMan:

That storm in northern oklahoma looks to hit wakita head on.


Something about that line.. seems familiar.
Quoting 318. CybrTeddy:



Something about that line.. seems familiar.


It's the suck zone
Quoting 320. Hurricanes101:



It's the suck zone



The point... basically in which the twister, sucks you up.
Anaticipation.
Quoting 317. StormTrackerScott:

Daniel Swain%u200F@Weather_West22 hrs22 hours ago

CFS model now projecting such an off-the-charts #ElNino that the CPC just adjusted the vertical axis!! @EricHolthaus


What do they call it when El Nino grows up? El Gordo?
Quoting 320. Hurricanes101:



It's the suck zone


Respect The Wind
Quoting 323. BaltimoreBrian:



So what do they call it when El Nino grows up? El Gordo?


Maybe El Hombre, El Viejo....but this is America
Quoting 317. StormTrackerScott:

Daniel Swain‏@Weather_West·22 hrs22 hours ago

CFS model now projecting such an off-the-charts #ElNino that the CPC just adjusted the vertical axis!! @EricHolthaus

ElNino will be here soon
Quoting 323. BaltimoreBrian:



So what do they call it when El Nino grows up? El Gordo?


You came out of retirement faster than WKC!
tornado outbreak is in progress in the Plains right now. At least 20 tornadoes have been reported in at least three states: Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma. Damage reports are coming in from across the region, particularly in communities southwest of Oklahoma City.

Here are the latest details on this breaking weather situation:

(FORECAST: Severe Weather Tracker | Dr. Forbes' TOR:CON Forecast)

Hail the size of baseballs hit Crane, Texas, just after 6 p.m. local time.
At 6:00 p.m. CDT weather spotters confirmed a large tornado near western Norman, Oklahoma.
Photos from Oklahoma University in Norman, Oklahoma, showed students taking cover in their dorms.
At 5:02 p.m. CDT a large, destructive tornado was reported near Bridge Creek, Oklahoma.
Scandia, Kansas: What's described as a "large and extremely dangerous tornado" was reported at 5:34 p.m. CDT. No word on damage or injuries yet.
A tornado hit Roseland, Nebraska, damaging at least two homes along with the Roseland Catholic Church. Minor injuries have been reported. Red Cross disaster teams are en route.
A large tornado was reported in Ruskin, Nebraska, a little after 5 p.m. CDT, triggering power flashes.
Mount Hope, Kansas: Spotters confirm what is known as a "stovepipe" tornado at 5 p.m. local time.
Lahoma, Oklahoma: Brief rope tornado reported just after 4:30 p.m. CDT.
Amber, Oklahoma: multi-vortex tornado reported just after 4:30 p.m. CDT.
Oklahoma County government offices closed early because of the weather.
A tornado was spotted outside of Ionia, Kansas, along the Jewell/Smith County lines. No major damage reported.
Multi-vortex tornado produced at least two tornadoes in a field in Lincoln County, Kansas, between 2:24 p.m. and 2:38 p.m CDT. No major damage reported.
Brief tornado touchdown in Caddo County, Oklahoma, near Apache around 2:50 p.m. CDT.
Hail the size of hen eggs hit 6 miles south of Verden, Oklahoma.
The National Weather Service has posted the below watches:

A tornado watch is in effect for west-central Texas, which includes San Angelo, until 9 p.m. CDT.
A tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. CDT for parts of northwest Texas and western/central Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and Abilene, Texas.
A tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. CDT for central Kansas, including Wichita, and parts of southern Nebraska, including Lincoln.
Quoting 323. BaltimoreBrian:



So what do they call it when El Nino grows up? El Gordo?

El Meaño
I never said I'd be gone completely, Geoffrey. I did say I wouldn't do the article lists anymore.
Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:

The ticket has been punched for a Strong El-Nino to materialize come late June just 5 weeks away or so. Major WWB and major SOI crash beginning to materialize to bring the strongest event since likely 1997. Could also end up much stronger than 1997 by Fall/Winter.

All these Typhoons across the W-Pac will likely yeild on hell of a El-Nino come Fall





Weeeee'

With the total column of a warming atmosphere, last year being the warmest ever recorded, are we surprised at the El Nino to be established.

No.

All 4 months globally in 2015 are running above 2014..


Atmospheric CO2 for April

403.26 ppm co2now.org
Quoting 330. Misanthroptimist:


El Meaño


Im gonna go wit,

El Uh oh'
334. beell

click for storm reports
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 735 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 735 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 735 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
093  
WFUS53 KTOP 070041  
TORTOP  
KSC157-070100-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0008.150507T0041Z-150507T0100Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
741 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT  
 
* AT 739 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORWAY...AND  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
BELLEVILLE AROUND 755 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN  
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID  
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE  
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3991 9777 3987 9750 3969 9775 3969 9784  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 213DEG 33KT 3972 9777  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...0.00IN  
 
 
 
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337. beell
El If-i-no?
Wonder why they don't have a sat. floater on 90L.

Last images of 90L on rapid scan as darkness sets in...

Link
343. beell
Quoting 342. GeoffreyWPB:

Wonder why they don't have a sat. floater on 90L.


Wondered the same thing.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 759 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 758 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
Note that bright banding in the last few frames as she creeps over the hill toward the radar.

Quoting 340. pablosyn:




tornado cunha
Quoting 323. BaltimoreBrian:



What do they call it when El Nino grows up? El Gordo?
El hombre
01  
WFUS54 KSJT 070117  
TORSJT  
TXC207-447-070200-  
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0022.150507T0117Z-150507T0200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
817 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
WEST CENTRAL THROCKMORTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  
 
* AT 814 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...AND MOVING EAST AT  
15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
IRBY AROUND 835 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3323 9939 3304 9931 3302 9961 3317 9968  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 250DEG 14KT 3309 9956  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...2.50IN  
 
 
 
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351. 882MB
Quoting 349. Gearsts:

El hombre


Or El Macho, lol!
Severe right mover with a hook echo developing

359  
WFUS53 KTOP 070120  
TORTOP  
KSC143-070145-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0010.150507T0120Z-150507T0145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
820 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT  
 
* AT 818 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CULVER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD SOUTH OF CULVER.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
MINNEAPOLIS AROUND 835 PM CDT.  
WELLS AROUND 845 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT  
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3910 9782 3923 9771 3912 9748 3895 9770  
3898 9785  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 225DEG 28KT 3899 9777  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.25IN  
 
 
 
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Id laugh if 90L ends up moving back down towards Florida eventually lol
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TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 829 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 828 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 828 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 825 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
043  
WFUS53 KOAX 070133  
TOROAX  
NEC109-070200-  
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0007.150507T0133Z-150507T0200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
833 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  
 
* AT 832 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT DALE...OR NEAR LINCOLN...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
LINCOLN AROUND 900 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
CONESTOGA STATE RECREATION AREA...RAYMOND...PAWNEE STATE RECREATION  
AREA AND DENTON.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 60 AND 77.  
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 390 AND 411.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4078 9691 4082 9691 4101 9679 4090 9651  
4071 9679  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 212DEG 14KT 4080 9681  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
FOBERT  
 
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338  
WFUS53 KTOP 070143  
TORTOP  
KSC143-070200-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0012.150507T0143Z-150507T0200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
843 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  
 
* AT 842 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MINNEAPOLIS...  
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 838 PM A TORNADO  
WAS REPORTED 4 MILES SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN AND  
NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN  
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID  
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE  
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3931 9764 3930 9762 3930 9737 3923 9737  
3904 9757 3912 9774  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 216DEG 33KT 3915 9763  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
PHILLIPS  
 
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A damaging tornado is moving through southeastern Oklahoma City and surrounding communities.

There's likely a violent tornado on the ground over I35 in S OKC. Cars flipped!
363. 882MB
Serious flooding going on in and around the OKC area.





Rick Smith ‏@ounwcm 50s50 seconds ago
847pm - TORNADO on I-35 at SW 44th. Power lines down across interstate, numerous vehicles overturned. Deadly dangerous situation! #okwx
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
9:00 AM JST May 7 2015
==========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 4.7N 158.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 4.7N 159.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
9:00 AM JST May 7 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Noul (955 hPa) located at 10.5N 134.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 11.6N 130.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.3N 126.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 15.6N 122.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Near Philippines (Luzon)

Dvorak Intensity forecast to be T6.5 in 24 hours for NOUL.
392  
WFUS54 KOUN 070157  
TOROUN  
TXC009-485-070245-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0039.150507T0157Z-150507T0245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
857 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN ARCHER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT  
 
* AT 857 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCHER CITY...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SOUTHERN WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...SCOTLAND...LAKE  
KICKAPOO AND LAKESIDE CITY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3368 9883 3390 9864 3388 9843 3366 9843  
3356 9870  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 232DEG 19KT 3367 9869  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
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Quoting 361. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A damaging tornado is moving through southeastern Oklahoma City and surrounding communities.




I'm assuming this is OKC radar and not Norman? The winds are blowing towards downtown in red correct?
Quoting 369. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm assuming this is OKC radar and not Norman? The winds are blowing towards downtown in red correct?
If Twin Lakes, that radar site is a ways east of Norman.
Base Radial Velocity .50 Elevation 124 nm range

821  
WFUS53 KTOP 070158  
TORTOP  
KSC027-029-143-070230-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0013.150507T0158Z-150507T0230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
858 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT  
 
* AT 857 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WELLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
OAK HILL AROUND 920 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A  
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3917 9762 3935 9755 3934 9735 3928 9729  
3914 9746 3913 9756  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 221DEG 26KT 3918 9753  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.25IN  
 
 
 
PHILLIPS  
 
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Quoting 370. Barefootontherocks:

If Twin Lakes, that radar site is a ways east of Norman.


OK, I'm not too familiar with the plains (Colorado and Iowa is about all I've been to) but I assumed the storm was in between Norman and OKC and Moore between them. I guess it's just chance, but I'm used to seeing winds blowing away from the doppler radar from the top (in green). Unless I've got the colors backward.
Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity .50 elevation 124 nm range

Ooofh'

376. 882MB
Flash flood emergency for OKC, probably one of the worst flooding in recorded history. And it is still raining incredibly hard. what a day for these folks in and around Oklahoma city.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
OKC015-017-027-051-087-109-071400-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150507T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
909 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OKLAHOMA CITY... MOORE... TUTTLE AND
MUSTANG...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY

* AT 906 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN... UP TO 5
TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

* THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...
TUTTLE AND MUSTANG. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...MOORE...MIDWEST CITY...DEL CITY...
CHICKASHA...NEWCASTLE...BLANCHARD...ANADARKO...BET HANY...MUSTANG...
CHOCTAW...NOBLE...TUTTLE...HARRAH...SPENCER...JONE S...NICOMA
PARK...GOLDSBY AND UNION CITY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...EAST FORK
DELAWARE CREEK...EAST CREEK...PECAN CREEK...DAVE BLUE CREEK...LITTLE
RIVER...SILVER CREEK...TONY HOLLOW CREEK...NORTH FORK LITTLE RIVER...
POND CREEK...OTTER CREEK...BITTER CREEK...HOG CREEK...SUGAR CREEK...
DRIPPING SPRINGS CREEK...WEST ELM CREEK...SNAKE CREEK...SOUTH DEER
CREEK...WEST FORK SALT CREEK...ROCK CREEK...TONKAWA CREEK...WEST FORK
WILDHORSE CREEK...SMITH CREEK...NORTH CANADIAN RIVER...COW CREEK...
TWIN CREEK...LIGHTNING CREEK...SOLDIER CREEK...CHOCTAW CREEK...
MUSTANG CREEK AND WASHITA RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 9775 3497 9841 3538 9811 3560 9714
3519 9714

$$

KURTZ
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 912 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 909 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 905 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 904 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 858 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 857 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
167  
WFUS53 KGID 070213  
TORGID  
KSC089-NEC129-169-070245-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0027.150507T0213Z-150507T0245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
913 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHEASTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT  
 
* AT 913 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARDY...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
HARDY AROUND 920 PM CDT.  
BYRON AROUND 930 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4000 9774 4000 9793 3987 9793 3994 9807  
4013 9796 4013 9763  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 212DEG 22KT 3997 9794  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
ROSSI  
 
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580  
WFUS53 KTOP 070214  
TORTOP  
KSC201-070245-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0015.150507T0214Z-150507T0245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
914 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT  
 
* AT 910 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HADDAM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
HOLLENBERG AROUND 935 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4000 9692 3977 9715 3978 9736 4001 9727  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 220DEG 42KT 3984 9724  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
SANDERS  
 
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holy multi state flash flood
It looks like there is at least a closed mid level low on 90L. Also, why is there no floater yet?

New tornado warning for Oklahoma/Cleveland Counties.

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 374. win1gamegiantsplease:



OK, I'm not too familiar with the plains (Colorado and Iowa is about all I've been to) but I assumed the storm was in between Norman and OKC and Moore between them. I guess it's just chance, but I'm used to seeing winds blowing away from the doppler radar from the top (in green). Unless I've got the colors backward.
I can never remember the to and from myself. lpl
Good lord


...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...TUTTLE AND MUSTANG. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!...

...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA...
Jonathan Conder ‏@KOCOjonathan 3m3 minutes ago
Are you kidding me... tornadoes, flooding and tigers loose in Tuttle?
Lance West %u200F@lancewest 3m3 minutes ago
Tiger Safari in Tuttle, OK was hit by the storm. Wild animals have escaped. Do NOT leave your homes. #BREAKING @kfor

0/10 not a good day for Tuttle, Oklahoma
248  
WFUS53 KTOP 070250  
TORTOP  
KSC027-029-201-070315-  
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0017.150507T0250Z-150507T0315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
950 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
NORTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT  
 
* AT 948 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLYDE...AND  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
CLIFTON AROUND 955 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A  
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3972 9704 3951 9726 3956 9743 3965 9739  
3966 9737 3970 9737 3978 9735 3982 9721  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 205DEG 26KT 3957 9736  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
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Quoting 384. Patrap:


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




The front moving across the plains has helped dry air get fed into the circulation, might look better tomorrow as the day goes on we'll see.

Quoting 385. Barefootontherocks:

I can never remember the to and from myself. lpl


I had to google it, and whadyaknow. Green is towards, red is away. So I guess that is the Norman or the town east you mentioned earlier's radar. And if you have red/green colorblindness you're up a creek...and definitely not in pilot school.
Storm Total, rainfall

Quoting 380. WaterWitch11:

holy multi state flash flood


holy multi state flash flood, Batman!
Max Echo Tops

Seriously, how far can a #Tigernado roam. Tigers on the loose from Tiger Safari in Tuttle, North Grady County Oklahoma - due to storms.

Gee'

Global Carbon Dioxide Levels Topped 400 PPM Throughout March In Unprecedented Milestone

Average global levels of carbon dioxide stayed above 400 parts per million, or ppm, through all of March 2015 -- the first time that has happened for an entire month since record keeping first began, according to data released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Scientists with NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory have called the news a "significant milestone" in the growing scourge of man-made climate change.

“This marks the fact that humans burning fossil fuels have caused global carbon dioxide concentrations to rise more than 120ppm since pre-industrial times,” Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA's greenhouse gas network, told The Guardian on Wednesday. “Half of that rise has occurred since 1980.”
Quoting 388. CybrTeddy:

Lance West %u200F@lancewest 3m3 minutes ago
Tiger Safari in Tuttle, OK was hit by the storm. Wild animals have escaped. Do NOT leave your homes. #BREAKING @kfor

0/10 not a good day for Tuttle, Oklahoma


Great... Bad weather and animals on the loose...
Oklahoma = Jumanji
Clearly this was not what was expected to transpire today, SPC and NWS do a really great job predicting severe weather over the plains but this is a rare miss in what has turned out to be a bad day. Epic flooding may be the biggest story which will play out even more fully on Saturday. If Saturday is an even larger tornado outbreak, which is currently a real possibility; then OKC is under the gun again and they can't handle more rain. What happens if we get 5-10 inches of rain Saturday in the OKC area? Praying for those affected and really hoping Saturday doesn't produce 50 plus tornadoes and horrible flooding though the same areas affected today.
Phew

Lance West %u200F@lancewest 4m4 minutes ago
All escaped animals from Tiger Safari in Tuttle, OK are safe and accounted for. #BREAKING @kfor
looks like activity is starting early this year
Quoting 370. Barefootontherocks:

If Twin Lakes, that radar site is a ways east of Norman.
And I'm wrong. TWL radar (the gray x) is NE of Norman and east of Moore.
Evening all. Crazy day out west I see.

Chick...Looks like it is starting to get a little closer to stacked.

00z NAM is now showing a hook back drift to the SW/WSW

84hrs...


Apparently Tuttle High School's mascot is a tiger.
Hey Junkie we may see some strange sights this season. Maybe storms cooked up closer to home.
Quoting 406. Chicklit:

Hey Junkie we may see some strange sights this season. Maybe storms cooked up closer to home.


The warmer the EPAC gets the more I would agree with you.
Quoting 398. DeepSeaRising:

Clearly this was not what was expected to transpire today, SPC and NWS do a really great job predicting severe weather over the plains but this is a rare miss in what has turned out to be a bad day. Epic flooding may be the biggest story which will play out even more fully on Saturday. If Saturday is an even larger tornado outbreak, which is currently a real possibility; then OKC is under the gun again and they can't handle more rain. What happens if we get 5-10 inches of rain Saturday in the OKC area? Praying for those affected and really hoping Saturday doesn't produce 50 plus tornadoes and horrible flooding though the same areas affected today.


I had TWC on for a bit this morning, didn't hear much about flooding at all and TOCON values were only around 4. I heard more about possible snow in Wyoming than that.

Quoting 399. Chicklit:





Circulation improved, but I think some dry air has gotten in there from the west. But the shear last I checked is subsiding so tomorrow might be when this low starts getting it's shtick together.
Cell JO showing 2.75 inch hail in it.

411. 882MB
Typhoon Noul, continues to intensify as it heads toward the Philippines. In the last couple of images an eye is in the making, wont be too long before this becomes a super typhoon. People in Luzon, should be watching this storm closely.







As per Tropical Depression Seven, SE shear is impending rapid development. Models forecast this shear to relax, and make this a pretty decent storm in or around the Marianas. So if you live in Guam, you should be watching this one carefully.





Quoting 390. win1gamegiantsplease:



The front moving across the plains has helped dry air get fed into the circulation, might look better tomorrow as the day goes on we'll see.



I had to google it, and whadyaknow. Green is towards, red is away. So I guess that is the Norman or the town east you mentioned earlier's radar. And if you have red/green colorblindness you're up a creek...and definitely not in pilot school.

I've often wondered why those two colors, for that very reason.
Edit: Wow! Posted this without checking the posts. 50 tornado reports and lots of flooding.

90L surface wind map. Looking at the wind map. Looks to be a definite LLC!

Open link below.

Link
Quoting 412. LAbonbon:


I've often wondered why those two colors, for that very reason.



Well you learn something everyday, and especially on this blog. I knew one color was towards the radar and the other away but I get them mixed up.
Buoy off of Charleston:


Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Date: Thu, 07 May 2015 03:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (118°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.01 in and falling
Air Temperature: 70.9 F
Dew Point: 64.4 F
Water Temperature: 73.8 F
Quoting 410. Patrap:

Cell JO showing 2.75 inch hail in it.

Fish storm / wind event has drawn almost lateral derechos in southern areas that normally do not see them. Obviously due to pole shift. Night Pat. Ohh, the weather in Iraq is wonderful.
418. vis0
**CREDIT:: Abbott & Costello (One day (wx too serious to leave pg.) read how professional Costello was, as to what occurred on the day this joke that has brought so many smiles across language barriers was introduced.)

**Who's on first, What's on second, I Don't Know is on third...


http://youtu.be/RqiO70lXFuQ(org888x578@600x392)...third time i get a "FuQ" on my tube VID link ... /v/tRFdarnIT3S?.



BACK TO watches & warnings stay tuned to NOAA
Quoting 382. winter123:

It looks like there is at least a closed mid level low on 90L. Also, why is there no floater yet?

Here you go.



(image is about 5 hours old)
The elongated surface low has been slowly consolidating. Based on satellite observations, we should see a defined surface low in the morning along with recon going out. I'll put my bets on there being a good likelihood we see Ana designated by the time recon is heading home. Dry air will be a large contributor to this system's struggles. The inflow from the SW quad is pulling in continental dry air that will likely continue to choke out that portion of the storm throughout its lifespan. Shear will continue to relax as the upper-level trough associated with it noses into a favorable position. Currently what you're see is this convergent boundary (as Levi noted earlier) is pulling away from the system which will leave it much more bare in appearance.
Same in boating. Green going away from land. Red returning to land.


Quoting 412. LAbonbon:


I've often wondered why those two colors, for that very reason.

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN · 9m 9 minutes ago
Only some roof damage to my house Norman but others in the neighborhood not so lucky. In outer circulation. No power
Today's severe weather event was substantially more than predicted. We ended up with 144 tornado warnings issued and so far about 50 confirmed tornado touch downs (likely higher). Looking ahead, the SPC D4 outlook appears interesting, 30% hatched for severe weather.

Quoting 423. CybrTeddy:

Today's severe weather event was substantially more than predicted. We ended up with 144 tornado warnings issued and so far about 50 confirmed tornado touch downs (likely higher). Looking ahead, the SPC D4 outlook appears interesting, 30% hatched for severe weather.



Saturday is shaping up to be the most substantial risk day of 2015. I would not be surprised at a Day 1 high risk.
First Code Red of 2015!

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 220 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has been
nearly stationary the past several hours. Showers and thunderstorms
are gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development over the next
day or so while this system moves slowly northward and then
northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form later
today or on Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low later this morning. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
beginning later today. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
will be issued on this system by 8 AM EDT this morning. For
additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
Quoting 425. TropicalAnalystwx13:

First Code Red of 2015!

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 220 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has been
nearly stationary the past several hours. Showers and thunderstorms
are gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development over the next
day or so while this system moves slowly northward and then
northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form later
today or on Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low later this morning. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
beginning later today. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
will be issued on this system by 8 AM EDT this morning. For
additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
Ana is going to form,no question.
427. vis0
It's Official: The show "Silent Hills" Is Canceled

oh and can someone throw what MIGHT become Ana a life preserver...preferably not made of corn syrup, that stuff will kill ya.

TOP Q:: If this becomes Ana, will Ana continue to let her hair blow in the wind or will Ana tighten it up into a bun.

Almost did but its kinda late in the night can't find hairbrush, lets wait till the AM.

Checklist::
Alert Friends in watched areas (check)
Buy popcorn tomorrow (will check)
Buy stock in corn yesterday (chucked)


oh yeah not 60% but 70%. (70% is the new RED)
image host


the future of TD 07 "Dolphin"? very low 900 pressure..
RED CODE ALERT
STORM ALERT
RED CODE ALERT
STORM ALERT


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 220 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has been
nearly stationary the past several hours. Showers and thunderstorms
are gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development over the next
day or so while this system moves slowly northward and then
northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form later
today or on Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low later this morning. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
beginning later today. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
will be issued on this system by 8 AM EDT this morning. For
additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
Quoting 423. CybrTeddy:

Today's severe weather event was substantially more than predicted. We ended up with 144 tornado warnings issued and so far about 50 confirmed tornado touch downs (likely higher). Looking ahead, the SPC D4 outlook appears interesting, 30% hatched for severe weather.


There were two enhanced risk areas (that hit the marks) and a 10% tornado area hatched in the 1130 am outlook. I don't know what the 3 pm outlook was, I was busy watching radar by early afternoon. The tornado watches in OK and KS were large and quick. Both had moderate risks for tornadoes and moderate risks for EF2plus.

In OK, strange - that huge cell with tornadoes doing touch and goes (practice for Saturday?) and circling around the perimeter of the large super cell rotation. Pretty interesting. Three or four touchdowns near Tuttle. Huge cell seemed like - just kept producing... touchdown and lift. Rinse and repeat. Many briefs. This type of cell could have just as well have produced one long tracker. Instead, it moved slow and flooded the place. The surveys should be interesting. Wednesday risk was mentioned at least five days ago. NWS Norman told us anything that popped would be severe and could produce a tornado. They did not expect many cells during prime time , and they didn't get many. The big one was still getting tornado warned E of Norman at midnite. Interesting phenomenon that will have some of the brains in Norman scratching their heads for a while.

SPC nailed today's KS/Neb risk area. I see a lot of reports but can't tell how many tornadoes there were. The 10% hatched area tornado risk area was up there.

What makes severe so interesting is you can't "predict" what will happen, only the chances.
90L is up 30kts.
The dreaded red x...

Sub-Ana just going to be a thorn in the sides of fathers who will have slacked on getting the wifey a present/dinner.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
15:00 PM JST May 7 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.8N 159.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 4.2N 161.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
15:00 PM JST May 7 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Noul (955 hPa) located at 11.3N 133.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 12.5N 129.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 14.1N 124.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 16.3N 121.4E - 80 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Luzon)
Catching up with your US weather last night, I'm sorry to read this summary:

Tornadoes rip through western and central Oklahoma
Washington Post, By Nick Kirkpatrick May 7 at 2:56 AM

Here an impressive video of a dusty downburst ("gustnado" or whatever) in the Netherlands yesterday (moreover two persons lost their lives when struck by lightning in Amesfoort/Utrecht):


-----------------------------------

Some good news from Micronesian islands like Yap in respect to "Noul":

Second typhoon spares FSM states still reeling from the first
Radio New Zealand, Updated 6 minutes ago
Quoting 415. FIUStormChaser:




Its Pretty Overcast Here In Wilmymood So If Im Gonna Ride My Bike To The Store, Id Better Go Ahead
Day 3 Moderate Risk:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
NORTH TX TO KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM
TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.


...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND
SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W
TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW
AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX.

..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015
Quoting 438. Ameister12:

Day 3 Moderate Risk:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
NORTH TX TO KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM
TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.


...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND
SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W
TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW
AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX.

..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015

Quoting 438. Ameister12:

Day 3 Moderate Risk:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
NORTH TX TO KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM
TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.


...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND
SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W
TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW
AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX.

..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015

Quoting 382. winter123:

It looks like there is at least a closed mid level low on 90L. Also, why is there no floater yet?



The floater is under Special Hazard Floater Imagery
Good Morning

A little snapshot of the SFC observations this AM. Outside of the 30KT winds found under the convective areas, the winds are generally 15 to 20KT around 90L at the SFC (with the notable dry air):



So any showers and specially heavy showers/storms that manages will be quite gusty.
Looks like convection is all that is needed to wrap around the COC to get classified a STS.

Quoting 440. nrtiwlnvragn:



The floater is under Special Hazard Floater Imagery

Thanks! Unfortunately no animated gif. But you can see the height of the cloudtops.


starting to see invest 90L rain
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 07/0900 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N77W TO
30N75W TO 28N75W TO 24N78W. THE LOW PRESSURE IS LARGELY
SUPPORTED BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W SE TO
A BROAD BASE NEAR 26N77W. MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE VICINITY OF
31N78W COLLOCATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION OVERALL
REMAINS LIMITED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND IMPACTING THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 76W-81W...WELL TO THE E-NE FROM 31N-36N
BETWEEN 64W-74W...AND FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 73W-76W. REGARDLESS
OF SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
HIGHLY PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL SE CONUS THROUGH
SUNDAY.
Still 70/70 on 90L.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 230 miles south-
southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has moved
little during the past several hours. Since yesterday, the low has
become better defined with increasing organization of the associated
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are gradually
becoming more conducive for development, and an increase in the
organization of the thunderstorms could result in the formation of a
subtropical cyclone later today or on Friday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
morning. The low is expected to drift generally northward over the
next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coast of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next
several days. For additional information, see products from your
local National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 2 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Blake
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 230 miles south-
southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has moved
little during the past several hours. Since yesterday, the low has
become better defined with increasing organization of the associated
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are gradually
becoming more conducive for development, and an increase in the
organization of the thunderstorms could result in the formation of a
subtropical cyclone later today or on Friday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
morning. The low is expected to drift generally northward over the
next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coast of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next
several days. For additional information, see products from your
local National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 2 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Invest 90L is very close to becoming the first named storm of the season. It appears that we have one central low-level circulation, albeit that center looks pretty elongated for now. An increase in convective organization should prompt NHC to pull the trigger. Recon investigates in a few hours.

WATCH OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS
Quoting 423. CybrTeddy:

Today's severe weather event was substantially more than predicted. We ended up with 144 tornado warnings issued and so far about 50 confirmed tornado touch downs (likely higher). Looking ahead, the SPC D4 outlook appears interesting, 30% hatched for severe weather.


Sweet! 3 STWO's in a row. :D...there is that saying in life that the 3rd times the charm. I think it is like an idiom or just based on the law of averages you are more likely to succeed the 3rd time. :)
452. MahFL
Convection building on the SE side :

First Named Storm Ahead?

An area of low pressure near the Bahamas may affect the Southeast coast in the days ahead.
455. MahFL
HH are airborne.
Highlights
A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is expected to form off the Southeast coast Thursday or Friday.
The National Hurricane Center has given this area of interest a 70 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours.
A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system late Thursday morning.
A track toward the coastal Carolinas now looks increasingly possible late this week where most direct impacts may occur (bands of locally heavy rain, some strong wind gusts).
High surf, rip currents, some coastal flooding possible from Florida to North Carolina regardless.
Rainy morning here in Wilmington. Winds fairly light 10-15.

90L has brought us some waves! 6'@8 sec.
Day 3
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Kelvin continues to get larger as it surfaces unlike last year at this time it was weakening. Very strong El-Nino now about to get underway.

2015


2014
Quoting 448. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 90L is very close to becoming the first named storm of the season. It appears that we have one central low-level circulation, albeit that center looks pretty elongated for now. An increase in convective organization should prompt NHC to pull the trigger. Recon investigates in a few hours.


looks fairly good. Would not be surprised if the sustained wind reach 55 to 60 mph.


Wonder if Ana will follow that small streak in the Gulf stream ...