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Low Pressure Between Southeast Florida and Bahamas has Potential to Develop

By: Jeff Masters 3:57 PM GMT on May 05, 2015

Heavy thunderstorms and strong winds are increasing over the waters between Southeast Florida and the Bahama Islands, where a non-tropical region of surface low pressure is developing. Radar out of Miami shows no organization to the shower activity, with rainfall amounts mostly less than an inch over Southeast Florida as of Tuesday morning. The first week of May is usually too early for the Atlantic to see its first named storm, but this area of low pressure could become Subtropical Depression One late this week, according to two of our top computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, the GFS and European models. These models predict that the extratropical storm will form a well-defined center on Wednesday, then drift slowly northwards towards North Carolina during the week, gradually acquiring tropical characteristics. Ocean temperatures are near 26°C (79°F), which is about 1.7°C (3°F) above average for this time of year, and just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form. If the storm manages to find a sweet spot over the core of the warm Gulf Stream current, it has the potential to develop into a subtropical or tropical depression late in the week, as indicated by Phase space diagrams from Florida State University from Tuesday morning's 06Z run of the GFS model. Steering currents are weak over the waters off the Southeast U.S. coast, and the models are split on whether or not the disturbance will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. I give the system a 40% chance of bringing heavy rains to the coast and high surf causing rip currents and coastal erosion late this week. In their 10 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 40%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for Friday, May 8, 2015 at 2 pm EDT made by the 00Z Tuesday run of the European model. The model is predicting a possible subtropical depression to be off the coast of the Southeast U.S.

Bob Henson will have a post late this afternoon from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Interesting. Thank you Doc.
According to this map it looks like it will stay well off the SE coast maybe drift out to sea. We shall see!!

Eric
Yep, the models are still at odds with favoring a more westward formation of the LLC or more towards the east. Good convection coming out of the Florida Straits/East Caribbean.

Quoting 380. nash36:



I vividly remember when Jeanne ran into that brick wall High and did her loop. It was bizarre to say the least.


I was at Wrightsville Beach during that. The surf was crazy and the clouds in the distance looked dark, thought we might be at the beach for a hurricane.....nope. She had made other plans.
12z GFS has it off the Cape, and keeps it moving pretty much N towards the SC/NC border. This would put Wilmington and N in the heaviest weather. The East side will be the weakest area.



Quoting 3. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

According to this map it looks like it will stay well off the SE coast maybe drift out to sea. We shall see!!

Eric


That scenario doesn't appear too likely. What looks to be relatively certain, is that whatever forms, will end up meandering for a couple of days somewhere between NE FL and the SC/NC border.
Quoting 3. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

According to this map it looks like it will stay well off the SE coast maybe drift out to sea. We shall see!!

Eric


Your area (if you're from SC) is still a 60% CHANCE of being affected by this low...
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

A SUBTROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
IN THE SHORT RANGE AND THEN THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN CONSULT WITH NHC...THIS LOW IS DEPICTED SO FAR AS
A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD POSSIBLY
REACHING THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY AROUND SUNDAY TO
MONDAY.
78hr total precip accumulation.

Quoting 372. HaoleboySurfEC:

I love when the gators lounge on the Brunswick County Beaches. Sorry I couldn't imbed link.

http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20120801/AR TICLES/120809973




I couldn't get the link to show up, but Sunset Beach is loaded with them, the Oyster Bay Legends course being one of their favorite homes. They're pretty patchy for most of the state: Lake Waccamaw, the Lumber, Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, and New River systems, but Brunswick and Hyde counties are crawling with them. Orton Pond near Southport is where you should go if you want a glimpse of a biggun'. This guy blocked a Southport road two months ago. Link
Quoting 8. scottsvb:



Your area (if you're from SC) is still a 60% CHANCE of being affected by this low...


Greenville is in the upstate, midway between Charlotte and Atlanta.
114hr precip totals. Follow the rain swath, that is the where the heaviest weather will be. Again, the real danger with this system seems to be the possibility that it sets up camp right along the coast somewhere and lingers for a couple days. The exact track will make a huge difference in how much of a flooding threat develops.

Thank You Dr.; right on the money. Look forward to seeing if the storm does find the sweet spot and is able to transition to a warm cored tropical entity..................Regardless, sheer is a big issue in terms of a "nice" looking symmetrical system.........I suspect it will be ragged looking once it gets classified.




Quoting 13. win1gamegiantsplease:



Greenville is in the upstate, midway between Charlotte and Atlanta.


Yeah,

This thing would have to track right up I-26 and be pretty strong for it to affect me too badly... If it hits SC directly the most I might see out of this is rain.

Eric
Quoting 14. StormJunkie:

114hr precip totals. Follow the rain swath, that is the where the heaviest weather will be. Again, the real danger with this system seems to be the possibility that it sets up camp right along the coast somewhere and lingers for a couple days. The exact track will make a huge difference in how much of a flooding threat develops.


If the center stays over the Gulf Stream, a fully tropical system is possible..Jus me harmless opinion...It looks like the surfers may have a few good waves..:)
Quoting 13. win1gamegiantsplease:



Greenville is in the upstate, midway between Charlotte and Atlanta.


It should stay east of you..wasn't sure if you were still living there or in Florida from your nametag. Still SC coast should see some good squalls (as of now) but it's too early to say anything before it develops.
Quoting 17. hydrus:

If the center stays over the Gulf Stream, a fully tropical system is possible..Jus me harmless opinion...It looks like the surfers may have a few good waves..:)


Agreed hydrus. It is all going to depend on how long it is able to stay over those warm waters. Small shifts will have big impacts. It seems likely that it will stall out/drift. The big question then becomes where.

20. Ed22
This system will pull of a surprise, I think this could be sub-tropical storm by tomorrow evening ...
We all remember a few late season tropical storms that got a bump from the Gulf Stream off of the JAX area and briefly made Cat 1 status before heading inland; however, those were fully formed tropical entities already. It will depend on the track of the core but will note (from the Stream below), that it would have to take a significant jog towards Florida-Georgia for that to occur as the warmest SST's are really hugging the Florida and Carolina coastlines at the moment.
A little satellite fun.



Throwing up some hot towers now.

Thanks Doc..Maybe the official date of hurricane season will be pushed back to May. Found this interesting piece on Wiki..The Doc already knows this stuff, but I wanted to share it...

History of Atlantic hurricane warnings

The basic concept of a hurricane season began during 1935, when dedicated wire circuits known as hurricane circuits began to be set up along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, a process completed by 1955. It was originally the time frame when the tropics were monitored routinely for tropical cyclone activity, and was originally defined as from June 15 through October 31. Over the years, the beginning date was shifted back to June 1, while the end date was shifted to November 15, before settling at November 30 by 1965. This was when hurricane reconnaissance planes were sent out to fly across the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico on a routine basis to look for potential tropical cyclones, in the years prior to the continuous weather satellite era. Since regular satellite surveillance began, hurricane hunter aircraft fly only into storm areas which are first spotted by satellite imagery.

NASA's GEOS-5 model has had this storm forming for more than a week. It has consistently brought it into or along the coastal areas of FL to NC. The timing has been pushed back half a day with the system becoming somewhat organized late Thursday to early Friday.


Saturday it may linger offshore..


The low that comes from the west may bring severe weather across TX, OK & NE as it pulls the storm off the Southeast United States into mostly South Carolina Sunday and Monday.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
By the feel of things outside here...It's not all cool. Had a few brief downpours, 81F with heavy clouds all day, Haircon3. It would not surprise me a bit if this got to be fully tropical.
Miami Radar

Echo Tops-124nm range

XX/INV/XXL
MARK
24.94N76.77W
More vort at the surface than this morning over the Central Bahamas:

Surface



Mid-Level
Quoting 22. GTstormChaserCaleb:

A little satellite fun.



Throwing up some hot towers now.




You should change your name to DJStormChaserCaleb.
Very recent ASCAT
The latest RAMMB images; looks like the Central Bahamas area is on the move:


Quoting 27. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XX/INV/XXL
MARK
24.94N76.77W

90L?
This coastal version is better..ASCAT.
Grand Bahama Island opposite of Palm Beach:



Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:
 26.704N 78.995W
Date: Tue, 05 May 2015 16:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.9 kt gusting to 17.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.14 in and steady
Air Temperature: 73.0 F
Link
GFS back on the idea of making landfall.
Surface observations reveal a sharp surface trough over the Western Bahamas. The axis looks to be just west of the area of consolidated convection.

40. 7544
notice also some models are showing a slow ssw west move when it reaches landfall could get interesting if it it does do that
Quoting 38. HurricaneAndre:

Link
GFS back on the idea of making landfall.



Thanks for the new entry, doc!

Just to complete my little live coverage of current "Caribbean" weather in northern Germany thanks to "Zoran" from the last blog (infos are saved in the comment section of my blog), here a short video (one of many) showing the very severe storm which has hit Hamburg/Germany two hours ago. Guess it lives up to the title "tropical storm" by a German news site, no? German weather blogger reports 33mm (1,3 inches) of rain in a few (about 10) minutes in his gauge. Severe gusts, hail and a bunch of lightning to boot.



Here another one, boy!
Off of Cape Canaveral (well to the East of the Gulf Stream); there are the marginal SST's (but just 2 degrees shy of 80):


Station 41010
NDBC
Location:
 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Tue, 05 May 2015 16:20:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.17 in
Air Temperature: 75.2 F
Dew Point: 65.8 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.
Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points
500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points
Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points
Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points
Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
*************************************************
Quoting 42. barbamz:

Thanks for the new entry, doc!

Just to complete my little live coverage of current "Caribbean" weather in northern Germany thanks to "Zoran" from the last blog (infos are saved in the comment section of my blog), here a short video (one of many) showing the very severe storm which has hit Hamburg/Germany two hours ago. Guess it lives up to the title "tropical storm" by a German news site, no? German weather blogger reports 33mm (1,3 inches) of rain in a few (about 10) minutes in his gauge. Severe gusts, hail and a bunch of lightning to boot.





Most def looked like the inside of a Cat 1 Eyewall Barbamz.

Thanks for that one.
Quoting 9. Patrap:




I wish I understood what these charts mean. Since I don't know what they are called, I can't even search for an explanation. Can someone be so kind as to point me in the right direction?
Quoting 34. HurricaneAndre:

90L?
likely soon or during the next 12 hrs
Quoting 46. oxnardprof:



I wish I understood what these charts mean. Since I don't know what they are called, I can't even search for an explanation. Can someone be so kind as to point me in the right direction?
It's a scale of all of the major models on certain system that can potentially develop and it split into 4 sections. Warm/Cold core/asymmetrical/symmetrical. Certain models include GFS,EURO,CMC,and UKMET.
Quoting 39. Drakoen:

Surface observations reveal a sharp surface trough over the Western Bahamas. The axis looks to be just west of the area of consolidated convection.


There is the surface trough you are talking about. Notice the surface high nosing in to the north.

Quoting 19. StormJunkie:



Agreed hydrus. It is all going to depend on how long it is able to stay over those warm waters. Small shifts will have big impacts. It seems likely that it will stall out/drift. The big question then becomes where.




You can see how the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers are about 20-25 degrees centigrade, warmer than the Pamlico Sound. The Pamlico Sound is like a bathtub, it's basically a giant shallow lagoon and come summer and fall it warms up more than the immediate ocean waters offshore (north of Cape Hatteras the Pamlico is almost always warmer). Last year Hurricane Arthur immediately became better organized and peaked in intensity once it crossed into it. Although I don't recommend swimming near the mouths of the rivers that feed into it because of the reptiles that might want to feed on you!
inflow curved banding dev now or seems to be as per visible sat

this is very early stages
now its got to grab hold to maintain





Quoting 12. win1gamegiantsplease:



I couldn't get the link to show up, but Sunset Beach is loaded with them, the Oyster Bay Legends course being one of their favorite homes. They're pretty patchy for most of the state: Lake Waccamaw, the Lumber, Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, and New River systems, but Brunswick and Hyde counties are crawling with them. Orton Pond near Southport is where you should go if you want a glimpse of a biggun'. This guy blocked a Southport road two months ago. Link


Alligator removed from Holden Beach
Latest GFS...
LOL !!!

Quoting 39. Drakoen:

Surface observations reveal a sharp surface trough over the Western Bahamas. The axis looks to be just west of the area of consolidated convection.




Right on schedule!
:)
Quoting 58. VR46L:

LOL !!!




Shear is expected to decrease in the region though.

Just looked at the NAM on a loop. It's looking subtropical or tropical to me.
Noul..

HRRR model is rapidly building a system very close to Fort Lauderdale. This system may come ashore the FL coast before exiting off to South Carolina.

Could come ashore across SE FL before turning NNE. Very interesting rest of the day shaping up.

Quoting 53. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

inflow curved banding dev now or seems to be as per visible sat

this is very early stages
now its got to grab hold to maintain








HRRR model continues to develop that spin SSE of key Largo. That seems to be the area the models are latching onto.

Quoting 60. win1gamegiantsplease:



Shear is expected to decrease in the region though.




Aye expected to go down a few knots ..... but would it not still be around 40 KNOTS?

Friday morning forecast shear

Upper ridging to the north apparent here.
On May 1, 2015, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Dr. John P. Holdren issued the following statement on proposed funding cuts to NASA's critical Earth science and space technology programs:

"If enacted, the NASA authorization bill headed to the House floor later this month would do serious damage to the Nation’s space program, as well as to Earth-observation and Earth-science programs essential for predicting, preparing for, and minimizing the damage from disasters both natural and human-induced.

The bill’s cuts to space-technology development would not only risk continued U.S leadership in the space industry, but would also impede progress on precisely those technologies—on-orbit refueling, advanced space propulsion, radiation protection in deep space, and more—needed to make crewed missions to deep space a reality. In the absence of robust investments to bring these technologies into being, the goal of sending U.S. astronauts to Mars in the 2030s could be in jeopardy.

The House bill would also gut the NASA “mission to planet Earth”—the satellite observations and related research that provide key measurements and insights relevant to forecasting and tracking hurricanes, fighting wildfires, observing the state of the world’s farms and forests, mapping the extent of droughts, measuring the stocks of groundwater, and monitoring the likelihood of landslides. The draconian cuts in the House bill would also delay advances in our ability to research and prepare for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis and blind us to changes in the Earth’s oceans and ice sheets that can be discerned only from space.

NASA’s mission to observe, understand, and explore the solar system and the cosmos beyond has long been matched in importance by its mission to use the unrivaled vantage point of Earth orbit for looking downward, to better understand the only home that humanity currently has. It is difficult to understand why, at this time of U.S. leadership in both the outward-facing and inward-facing facets of NASA’s operations in space, the Congress would want to undermine that leadership and sacrifice the panoply of benefits it brings to the Nation."
Quoting 63. hydrus:

Noul..



Poor island of Yap with such a stormy lover who just don't want to leave!



Water vapor satellite image of Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May 2007. Green shading generally corresponds to areas of convection, with Andrea's center of circulation located in the gray hole surrounded in some distance, by the convection. (Stu Ostro)
"we don't need no stinking science."

The US House Leadership
Quoting 64. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR model is rapidly building a system very close to Fort Lauderdale. This system may huge the FL coast before exiting off to South Carolina.

Could come ashore across SE FL before turning NNE. Very interesting rest of the day shaping up.




Don't you mean hit?
Quoting 72. 62901IL:



Don't you mean hit?


Supposed to be come ashore. Waiting for the run to finish but it clearly develops an area east of Miami then sends it WNW into SE FL.
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:



HRRR model continues to develop that spin SSE of key Largo. That seems to be the area the models are latching onto.


there are a few different depictions but like always what it shows and what it does is always two different things
Off to work. Y'all try and keep it real around here. Wishcasting is rarely accurate...even if it is in bold type.
76. Ed22
Quoting 50. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There is the surface trough you are talking about. Notice the surface high nosing in to the north.


This system looks pretty impressive right now...
Look for yourselves folks. This model is usually really accurate with small scale features.

Just about on top of Miami
Quoting 75. StormJunkie:

Off to work. Y'all try and keep it real around here. Wishcasting is rarely accurate...even if it is in bold type.


Look for yourself.
Circulation is hugging the coast of S.E. Florida.
Quoting 66. VR46L:



Aye expected to go down a few knots ..... but would it not still be around 40 KNOTS?


The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.


Here is the end of the run that just finished. Funny making some look inadequate.

Quoting 81. Patrap:




There she is in the making. Kinda like watching a seed grow into something more.
Today's sweet spot (circled) for a move towards consolidation at the surface (GFS rendition). Maybe.


12Z GFS 300 mb heights, winds-@ 18Z
Blob Confirmation by Grothar 5 points


Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.
Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points
500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points
Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points
Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points
Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
*************************************************

Off to work. Y'all try and keep it real around here. Wishcasting is rarely accurate...even if it is in bold type.




but bold and all caps....now that's a different story altogether
Quoting 85. beell:

Today's sweet spot (circled) for a move towards consolidation at the surface (GFS rendition). Maybe.


12Z GFS 300 mb heights, winds-@ 18Z


Here are some of the squalls forming and coming toward shore.

Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:



Now you and everyone who plussed you has looked dumb now.


Most likely scenario based on consensus of models and actual experts is that late tonight in to tomorrow will yeild slow development of a surface low in the northern Bahamas. Blindly pushing an outside scenario and only considering bits and pieces of the larger picture to support a theory does not show logical thought process skills. Is there a chance it moves in to S Fla? Or is within 20 miles of the Cape? Or becomes a Cat 1? Sure...but to claim any of those likely at this point is shortsighted. Just sayin'


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brennan

Love the temp gradient north of Cape Hatteras vs south of Cape Hatteras this time of year Surf the lighthouse and wear a full wetsuit or catch Frisco less than 10 miles away to the south and you are comfortable in just a shortie.

Quoting 52. win1gamegiantsplease:



You can see how the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers are about 20-25 degrees centigrade, warmer than the Pamlico Sound. The Pamlico Sound is like a bathtub, it's basically a giant shallow lagoon and come summer and fall it warms up more than the immediate ocean waters offshore (north of Cape Hatteras the Pamlico is almost always warmer). Last year Hurricane Arthur immediately became better organized and peaked in intensity once it crossed into it. Although I don't recommend swimming near the mouths of the rivers that feed into it because of the reptiles that might want to feed on you!
Rapid Refresh is a mesoscale model, not sure how accurate it is with tropical systems. I would still side with the GFS or ECMWF in tropical meteorology.
Quoting 82. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.





Marginal SST Too.....



I guess we will see ....


Quoting 89. StormJunkie:



Most likely scenario based on consensus of models and actual experts is that late tonight in to tomorrow will yeild slow development of a surface low in the northern Bahamas. Blindly pushing an outside scenario and only considering bits and pieces of the larger picture to support a theory does not show logical thought process skills. Is there a chance it moves in to S Fla? Or is within 20 miles of the Cape? Or becomes a Cat 1? Sure...but to claim any of those likely at this point is shortsighted. Just sayin'



SJ, stop making sense, would you?
Quoting 89. StormJunkie:



Most likely scenario based on consensus of models and actual experts is that late tonight in to tomorrow will yeild slow development of a surface low in the northern Bahamas. Blindly pushing an outside scenario and only considering bits and pieces of the larger picture to support a theory does not show logical thought process skills. Is there a chance it moves in to S Fla? Or is within 20 miles of the Cape? Or becomes a Cat 1? Sure...but to claim any of those likely at this point is shortsighted. Just sayin'


Outside scenario? There is clearly a system trying to organize just SE of Miami and what I was saying is the HRRR model moves this system NE the next 15 hours then come Wed AM turns NNE toward South Carolina. Basically the only change is short term as models now are much closer to FL if not over FL then moves NNE as what has been forecast for days into South Carolina. So I guess I don't understand what your issue is?
Quoting 94. K8eCane:




SJ, stop making sense, would you?


You mean lack of?
Here you go my point is made. Funny people talk a lot of ish but you atleast have to try and look at the models and what is happening real time before slamming someone as wishcasting.

12Z Euro
Quoting 67. beell:


Friday morning forecast shear

Upper ridging to the north apparent here.


Nicely wedged between two branches of the jet stream.


meh...
The big picture
Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:



You mean lack of?



Nah....I been listening to SJ make sense in this blog for years. I didnt mean that I think you are NOT making sense.
102. beell
SJ, STS. Stop it right now!
:)
12Z Euro near NC/SC at 66hrs. Stalled out it appears.

Quoting 102. beell:

SJ, STS. Stop it right now!
:)


Alright I'll cool it and behave before I get sent to the slammer.
Happy Cinco de Mayo to ALL
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters....
The big picture

you know...looking at your big picture radar.........i'm not a smart man.....but could there be a chance...the low....or the low that will be...and its center of circulation......well...could it be just...or slightly.....west of ft lauderdale....and going to slide off into the atlantic....no matter....i'm gonna enjoy me some chocolate....cus just like storms and models......you never know what you're gonna get

Here is where I am torn as I see 2 camps @ 60hrs and beyond. Short term looks good as system forms near Miami but long term or 60hrs plus models either take this system into SC or the Euro which takes this system and stalls it offshore then retrogrades it back toward NE FL this weekend. I guess the faster it moves the chances are it comes ashore in SC or it stalls due to a building high over the Mid Atlantic then gets sent West. Still lots to iron out!
12z ECMWF 78 hrs. shows a 1006 mb. Ana hugging the coastline of SC/NC. A definite shift to the west to come in line with the GFS.



Plenty of warm water for a sub-tropical system, but it'll have to place itself right over the gulf stream to transition to a fully tropical system. Should be a decent rainmaker though and an interesting system to follow (if it does develop).
Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:

Circulation is hugging the coast of S.E. Florida.



Sat in my chair, and tried to locate any resemblance of any circulation or signs of any circulation, didn't see anything.
Basically calm or almost calm winds over S.E. Florida. Even a hint of a NW wind in there. Strongest wind indicated is 41 mph at Brunswick, Georgia on this map.
time to look at some FSU models.....but first.....a few words from my lawyer




Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.


113. vis0
CREDIT:: JMA
D&T:: on AniGif
IMAGERY:: WV
SUBJECT:: Active Tropics in Western Pacific
image host

NOTE:: The little green, yellow, cyan squares are placed there my me for reference. Otherwise if no land is within the animation one could not really tell if storms are moving or not...you'd think WOW that TS is still for 14 days as it crossed half the Pacific.
In the future i'll keep the squares yellow & cyan as green might be confused for land mass.

Seahorse? Someone eMailed (private mail) why not use an icon instead of little squares. If i use, oh lets say a wxu members seahorse it'll block ones views in being able to observe the entire animation.
That scenario means sloppy surf for me and most likely a whole lot of rain heading into Mother's Day Weekend.

Quoting 103. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro near NC/SC at 66hrs. Stalled out it appears.


Possibly/probably a tornado occurred in Schwerin, northeastern Germany. Damage is going to be investigated. Pics and a video (with foul language) on this public facebook weathersite. - From Hamburg unfortunately one fatality is reported; parts of a roof were blown onto his car; his pregnant partner was injured but survived.
HRRR model remaining consistent on forming a system near Miami tonight. Gets strong too.

well...the cmc picks this up in the bahamas......think jamaican refugee boat...



it moves it quickly north and then sits and spins about the south carolina coast...kind of impressive....but eventually it winds down and comes ashore not impressive at all

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/ 1000hPa/orthographic=-78.05,26.08,3000

Link

Earth Winds shows a Circulation (Mid perhaps) very close to Bimini
Quoting 91. HaoleboySurfEC:

Love the temp gradient north of Cape Hatteras vs south of Cape Hatteras this time of year Surf the lighthouse and wear a full wetsuit or catch Frisco less than 10 miles away to the south and you are comfortable in just a shortie.




It's the Labrador Current I guess, eventually the Gulf Stream warms the water up to Corolla or so but when the two start "jostling" so to speak I'm sure it's a good day for the boards by Hatteras.
Quoting 110. FIUStormChaser:



Sat in my chair, and tried to locate any resemblance of any circulation or signs of any circulation, didn't see anything.


Optometrist appointment scheduled for you. You'll thank me. Definite rotation evident just along the S.E. coast. That doesn't mean a larger (much broader) circulation won't form in another location.
Wind map also validates that S.E. Florida is at the center of some sort of wind field.
121. yoboi
Quoting 68. guygee:

On May 1, 2015, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Dr. John P. Holdren issued the following statement on proposed funding cuts to NASA's critical Earth science and space technology programs:

"If enacted, the NASA authorization bill headed to the House floor later this month would do serious damage to the Nation’s space program, as well as to Earth-observation and Earth-science programs essential for predicting, preparing for, and minimizing the damage from disasters both natural and human-induced.

The bill’s cuts to space-technology development would not only risk continued U.S leadership in the space industry, but would also impede progress on precisely those technologies—on-orbit refueling, advanced space propulsion, radiation protection in deep space, and more—needed to make crewed missions to deep space a reality. In the absence of robust investments to bring these technologies into being, the goal of sending U.S. astronauts to Mars in the 2030s could be in jeopardy.

The House bill would also gut the NASA “mission to planet Earth”—the satellite observations and related research that provide key measurements and insights relevant to forecasting and tracking hurricanes, fighting wildfires, observing the state of the world’s farms and forests, mapping the extent of droughts, measuring the stocks of groundwater, and monitoring the likelihood of landslides. The draconian cuts in the House bill would also delay advances in our ability to research and prepare for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis and blind us to changes in the Earth’s oceans and ice sheets that can be discerned only from space.

NASA’s mission to observe, understand, and explore the solar system and the cosmos beyond has long been matched in importance by its mission to use the unrivaled vantage point of Earth orbit for looking downward, to better understand the only home that humanity currently has. It is difficult to understand why, at this time of U.S. leadership in both the outward-facing and inward-facing facets of NASA’s operations in space, the Congress would want to undermine that leadership and sacrifice the panoply of benefits it brings to the Nation."


Would not surprise me if most of the thunderstorms out in the oceans this year get named to avoid future cuts....When you are out of money tough decisions will have to be made and it looks like science will not be immune....
Quoting 115. barbamz:

Possibly/probably a tornado occurred in Schwerin, northeastern Germany. Damage is going to be investigated. Pics and a video (with German foul language) on this public facebook weathersite. - From Hamburg unfortunately one fatality is reported; parts of a roof were blown onto his car.


Odd looking tornado. Looked more like a waterspout.
Potential flood threat on the horizon for coastal areas of the Carolina's. Probably looking at a 3-4 day rainfall event due to the slow movement. In fact, the system may make landfall and rain itself out and dissipate there before feeling any influence from a trough to lift it out.
now the ecmwf....well...it forms this...looks like east of what....st augustine?........in like 2 days.....drugged model?......i don't know....it's still not excited

Quoting 66. VR46L:



Aye expected to go down a few knots ..... but would it not still be around 40 KNOTS?


Cuts that velocity in half to the east of the Bahamas, and granted it's just a forecast for the day.
now the gfs......starts to pop it...and then actually pops it...about east of stuart




and then it doesn't get too excited.....and dumps it at the nc...sc...border


This is an outbreak some may not be familiar with. (with which some may not be familiar. lpl)
From NWS:
A Look Back at the Western Carolina Violent Tornado Outbreak of May 5, 1989.
"While only seven tornadoes were reported across the area during the outbreak, three were rated F4 in intensity (Fig. 1). This number of violent tornadoes is unprecedented for a single outbreak affecting the region since official records began in 1950[1]. By contrast, only a single F4 (or EF4) tornado has affected the area since this time[2]."

Good article that includes interesting history on NWS and forecasting.
129. TXCWC
Euro showing center landfall somewhere along SC/NC border (surface wind gusts around 40 mph reaching the coast as per data on euro paid product - not shown here):
well...the navgem also pops the circle east of stuart......



it's not impressed either

The ionosphere is very sensitive to solar storms. Turns out, it can be sensitive to earthquakes, too. NASA is reporting that the magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Nepal on April 25th created waves of energy that penetrated the ionosphere and disturbed the distribution of electrons.
Quoting 16. EricfromGreenvilleSC:



Yeah,

This thing would have to track right up I-26 and be pretty strong for it to affect me too badly... If it hits SC directly the most I might see out of this is rain.

Eric


Right, the interior Carolinas tend to get hid with harder effects from cyclones that come from the Florida panhandle (Ivan and Frances are good examples). From Cape Verde systems that don't cross into the Gulf or Caribbean the perfect scenarios for strong winds and heavy rain for the upstate would be a storm coming up from Savannah to Beaufort, the Charlotte area a situation like Hugo, the Triad from a landfalling system between Georgetown and Myrtle, and the Triangle similar to Fran coming from the Cape Fear area if their forward motion were brisk enough.
National Hurricane Updates
Please like & share this post so it reaches more people:

Models have come into great agreement this afternoon that we will in fact have our first system of the season develop before June 1. We are looking at minor impacts mainly along the SC/NC coastlines beginning Thursday & lasting through Saturday. The system will likely be named Sub-tropical or Tropical Storm #Ana based on the good agreement among the models. This will be a slow mover & could meander over the region highlighted in the image below. Not often that we see a storm develop in early May.

A full post with all the details from our team is available in the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com We also offer our full discussions & outlooks via email: http://bit.ly/emailoutlooks

Follow our social feeds for more info:
Twitter: hurrtrackerapp
Instagram: hurricanetracker
Periscope Updates: hurricanetrackerapp
Well, I needed some water in the pool. Looks like at least half the weekend will be a washout.

Still no center of circulation so would not be surprised if this all changes.

Quoting 127. ricderr:

now the gfs......starts to pop it...and then actually pops it...about east of stuart




and then it doesn't get too excited.....and dumps it at the nc...sc...border



nam 12 z 8 am wed morning

gfs 12z 8 am wed morning

12Z Wednesday for the ECMWF
Week 2 East Pacific genesis based on ENSO?






Excerpt:

During Week-2, the GEFS members do not indicate any areas for potential tropical cyclone formation; however, based on both the potential for weak subseasonal or Kelvin Wave activity impacting the eastern Pacific basin during late Week-2 or Week-3 as well as the background ENSO state, a moderate potential for tropical cyclogenesis is indicated on this outlook. The most favorable region for development over the eastern Pacific would be east of 105W.


Link
Link
Updated blog for potential Ana.
Well, I needed some water in the pool. Looks like at least half the weekend will be a washout.

Still no center of circulation so would not be surprised if this all changes.


i do expect it to change...but right now...i think i'm safe here in el paso....no need to board up and all
72 hr forecast landfall from nam non tropical model

remember things can and will changed from run too run



72 hr forecast landfall from gfs


This disturbance is organizing; shear is vanishing and the low level feature is really becoming pronounced. Big improvement in both categories in the last few hours if you look back through the maps. In line with my thinking from yesterday about a stronger (relatively speaking), more west system. ECMWF is catching on now. I like the 12z GFS run. Won't be anything too bad, but I do believe it becomes Ana within 72 hours.



Quoting 122. yonzabam:
Odd looking tornado. Looked more like a waterspout.

Now watch this video, from the same region today (here):


Member of a German weatherblog posted this doppler radar image (possible Schwerin-Tornado). In Germany we don't have public access to shiny regional radar stations like nexradar in the US :-(

Photos of the damage due to another, hmmm, wind-event in a town (Buetzow) between Schwerin and Rostock, northeastern Germany. Several injuries (latest news: 30), including the major of the town who was hit when the window of the city hall burst. Reports of severe devastation are coming in.

Edit: From Twitter:

Robert Rusch @RuschRobert Vor 3 Minuten: In Schwerin war es wohl "bueschn windig" wie der Mecklenburger sagt. ["In Schwerin it obviously has been a little windy today."] I'm not sure who is the author of this photo though.

Another tweet:

Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 5 Min.Vor 5 Minuten
RT @UKWeather Live. Tornado in Schwerin, Germany earlier today. Absolutely incredible!

Edit, edit: Another video of the developing Schwerin tornado. And please excuse me for spamming the blog with our German weather events. Just remember that those events are due to an airmass of tropical origin blown over the Atlantic with the subtropical jet stream.

Here is a website with lists of German tornadoes. (Red crosses: confirmed tornadoes. Other numbers: suspected tornadoes.)
Poll time:
What will the percentages be in the morning for the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?
A 40/60
B 50/70
C 60/80
D 70/90
Me C.
Radio signals puzzled astrophysicists for 17 years. They were coming from a microwave oven.

Excerpt:

Since 1998, astrophysicists at Australia's Parkes Observatory have been detecting mysterious bursts of radio waves (named "perytons") that seemed to emanate from all parts of the sky. They lasted for just fractions of a second and happened once or twice a year.
Look for a surface low to form tonight and into tomorrow morning between South Florida and the Bahamas. Most models indicate this. The ECMWF 12z is a bit more wound up than previous runs and the system looks more tropical in nature.
Quoting 147. Drakoen:

Look for a surface low to form tonight and into tomorrow morning between South Florida and the Bahamas. Most models indicate this. The ECMWF 12z is a bit more wound up than previous runs and the system looks more tropical in nature.
Do you think 90L will be designated tonight.
Had a chance to go home for lunch, clear my head, and take a second look now at the charts and the blog comments since I left. Here is my refreshed assessment..................Basically a minimal to moderate rain/wind event for someone on the Coast from GA to the Outer Banks. This is after all, not the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and just an unexpected pre-season snack..........................
Quoting 143. MAweatherboy1:

This disturbance is organizing; shear is vanishing and the low level feature is really becoming pronounced. Big improvement in both categories in the last few hours if you look back through the maps. In line with my thinking from yesterday about a stronger (relatively speaking), more west system. ECMWF is catching on now. I like the 12z GFS run. Won't be anything too bad, but I do believe it becomes Ana within 72 hours.






And.......there goes Mothers Day for Charleston. Super.
151. 882MB
I wonder how many inches of rain the island of Yap has gotten, and Noul is still crawling.





And 93W looks like could be threat down the road to Guam, as a strong typhoon, according to the GFS. Still quite a few days out, to monitor.

Quoting 148. HurricaneAndre:

Do you think 90L will be designated tonight.


No clue. Designation is not up to me. They may be waiting for a surface low to form first to have something to run the BAM suite on.
Hey Neat!

I wasn't expecting to be checkin the Doc's blog for another month or 2.

Come on Ana! Surf 2 weekends in a row!
Had a chance to go home for lunch, clear my head, and take a second look now at the charts and the blog comments since I left. Here is my refreshed assessment..................Basically a minimal to moderate rain/wind event for someone on the Coast from GA to the Outer Banks. This is after all, not the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and just an unexpected pre-season snack..........................


or.....just as air flights gave up serving meals and now only offer half a coke and some peanuts.....this could be all you get this year.....ta da da boom!


And.......there goes Mothers Day for Charleston. Super.

you have kids nash?...if not...skip mothers day all together.......give her the...you aint my mother comment....



that way...you'll be in the doghouse...and have all the free time to follow the storm....ragged...strong...or whatnot
Side note: Heading back from my lunch hour, I got the bottom of the hour local forecast on the radio. Absolutely no mention of, "and we're keeping an eye on the tropics." By no means do they need to sound ridiculous alarm bells, but it was just a little strange that they didn't even broach the topic.

I guess they're waiting until they absolutely have to mention it, as to not freak out the public.
Quoting 155. ricderr:

And.......there goes Mothers Day for Charleston. Super.

you have kids nash?...if not...skip mothers day all together.......give her the...you aint my mother comment....



that way...you'll be in the doghouse...and have all the free time to follow the storm....ragged...strong...or whatnot


LMAO Ric!!!!! Well played, sir. I do have a 15 yr old stepson. God help us if the power were to go out. He's addicted to pc gaming. I think he'd have a coronary should he not have his pc.
Quoting 154. ricderr:

Had a chance to go home for lunch, clear my head, and take a second look now at the charts and the blog comments since I left. Here is my refreshed assessment..................Basically a minimal to moderate rain/wind event for someone on the Coast from GA to the Outer Banks. This is after all, not the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and just an unexpected pre-season snack..........................


or.....just as air flights gave up serving meals and now only offer half a coke and some peanuts.....this could be all you get this year.....ta da da boom!
Shoot you'll be even lucky to get that. Try flying from Tampa to Miami, you get no in-flight snacks in the economy class. Not sure about first class, however.
LMAO Ric!!!!! Well played, sir. I do have a 15 yr old stepson. God help us if the power were to go out. He's addicted to pc gaming. I think he'd have a coronary should he not have his pc.

that i understand...but they do grow up....tim....who was the same at 15...is now getting his masters in the veterinarian program at UF
You know we moved in October from the Cape Canaveral area to NC (just above that little nub that sticks south we are about 70 miles from sc) to get away from the storms! Now it looks like we are in the crosshairs 1st time out up here
Shoot you'll be even lucky to get that. Try flying from Tampa to Miami, you get no in-flight snacks in the economy class. Not sure about first class, however.

that one seems almost quicker to drive....but yes.....i've done some small jumps when flying and had nada also
Quoting 160. tropicalnewbee:

You know we moved in October from the Cape Canaveral area to NC (just above that little nub that sticks south we are about 70 miles from sc) to get away from the storms! Now it looks like we are in the crosshairs 1st time out up here


Is this "little nub" you're referring to Bald Head Island?
Hello All..

NWS, Wilmington, NC 3pm Discussion..

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UP IN THE
AIR DEPENDING IF AND WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL ENTITY DEVELOPS AND ITS
MOVEMENT THEREAFTER. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS THAT COULD PRODUCE EITHER A LOT OF WIND AND RAIN OR VERY
LITTLE OF BOTH. PRUDENCE CALLS FOR KEEPING THE SLOWLY INCREASING
TREND OF POPS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS APPROACH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WPC GRAPHICS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND
WHAT THE LOCAL IMPACTS WILL BE. THIS UNCERTAINTY SHOULD DECREASE
ONCE DEVELOPMENT GETS UNDERWAY ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF
THE CIRCULATION GETS PERIPHERALLY SAMPLED BY FL RAOBS. THERE HAS
BEEN AN INTERESTING TREND IN 12Z GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE REGION, EVEN THE PREVIOULSY EAST-OUTLYING
ECMWF...THOUGH THAT MODEL INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS A FEW DAYS
SLOWER THAN WRF/GFS. AT THIS POINT THERE SEEMS LITTLE VALUE IN
MAKING MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. WITH A DIRECT IMPACT
SEEMING MORE POSSIBLE THAN IT WAS BEFORE ITS TEMPTING TO ZERO IN
ON A DAY WHERE HIGH POPS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE ADVERTISED BUT THE
VAST DIFFERENCES IN TIMING PRECLUDE DOING SO AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM THE FL STATE PHASE DIAGRAMS
KEEP IT WEAKLY SYMMETRIC WARM CORE ON SOME MODELS WHILE OTHERS
BRING IT TO THE BORDER BETWEEN WARM AND COLD...THUS A HYBRID
SYSTEM APPEARS MOST LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM IS REALLY THE ONLY MAJOR
PLAYER OF THE LONG TERM...WHICH WILL OTHERWISE FEATURE SEASONABLE
TO MILD AFTERNOONS AND RELATIVELY WARM NIGHTS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM AND SO MAY
NEED TWEAKING ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TRACK AND TIMING.
Quoting 159. ricderr:

LMAO Ric!!!!! Well played, sir. I do have a 15 yr old stepson. God help us if the power were to go out. He's addicted to pc gaming. I think he'd have a coronary should he not have his pc.

that i understand...but they do grow up....tim....who was the same at 15...is now getting his masters in the veterinarian program at UF


You must certainly be a proud dad. I have a good kid. Grades are great. Just your typical lazy 15 yr old. He'll grow out of it. I'm really not too concerned with losing power. We fared "alright" with those back-to-back ice storms last year, only losing power for a few hours, while many others were down for days. It'll just be a windy flood threat.
Quoting 162. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is this "little nub" you're referring to Bald Head Island?

No not on an island just south of fayetteville close to sc border
Lumberton area? Enjoy!

Quoting 165. tropicalnewbee:


No not on an island just south of fayetteville close to sc border
Quoting 164. nash36:



You must certainly be a proud dad. I have a good kid. Grades are great. Just your typical lazy 15 yr old. He'll grow out of it. I'm really not too concerned with losing power. We fared "alright" with those back-to-back ice storms last year, only losing power for a few hours, while many others were down for days. It'll just be a windy flood threat.


Well I certainly would hope the infrastructure in Chucktown can handle the impact of a garden variety tropical storm.
Quoting 166. HaoleboySurfEC:

Lumberton area? Enjoy!



Yup. Like I said looks like we may be in for a good soaking
Quoting 154. ricderr:

Had a chance to go home for lunch, clear my head, and take a second look now at the charts and the blog comments since I left. Here is my refreshed assessment..................Basically a minimal to moderate rain/wind event for someone on the Coast from GA to the Outer Banks. This is after all, not the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and just an unexpected pre-season snack..........................


or.....just as air flights gave up serving meals and now only offer half a coke and some peanuts.....this could be all you get this year.....ta da da boom!





Some airlines charge for a soda and snacks.
Quoting 165. tropicalnewbee:


No not on an island just south of fayetteville close to sc border


Oh, the nub as in the whole upside down trapezoid region of the state. I'm included in that 'nub' too but I don't expect anything too serious outside of some beach erosion and localized flooding.
Quoting 158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Shoot you'll be even lucky to get that. Try flying from Tampa to Miami, you get no in-flight snacks in the economy class. Not sure about first class, however.


I've flown from Miami to Fort Myers and that's a pretty funny flight. You get an extremely tiny airplane with just a few rows of seats. No snacks and one flight attendant that just sits in a tiny seat up by the pilot's door. You also fly real low and the plane ride is really bumpy in the summer time with the T storms in the area.
NCEP folks had to adjust the chart for the CFSv2 to extend past 3C. Never seen that done before by this agency!

It may be be decades before we see an ENSO like were about to witness it seems. The corrected PDF for the CFSv2 is @2.5C surpassing the 1997 event.

SE NC has been referred to as the "Catchers Mit" in past years with tropical systems.

They always hook north and then turn at just the last second.

Fun forecasting. When you know its going to turn at least.
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

NCEP folks had to adjust the chart for the CFSv2 to extend past 3C. Never seen that done before by this agency!


If the model wasn't so broken they wouldn't have to extend the chart.
Quoting 175. Gearsts:

If the model wasn't so broken they wouldn't have to extend the chart.


The correct PDF is at 2.5C. Have you seen the latest Euro for May?

Or it could very well be that we are heading for a major event. Looks like we jumped the gun a year early. Last year at this time CFSv2 was trending weaker with El-Nino and this year models are trending for the strongest ever. Spring Barrier just about over as June is just over 3 weeks away.
Quoting 174. Brock31:

SE NC has been referred to as the "Catchers Mit" in past years with tropical systems.

They always hook north and then turn at just the last second.

Fun forecasting. When you know its going to turn at least.


Hopefully Madison Bumgarner doesn't get called to the mound this year, or next, etc. Ironically he is from the state.
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:



The correct PDF is at 2.5C. Have you seen the latest Euro for May?

Or it could very well be that we are heading for a major event. Looks like we jumped the gun a year early. Last year at this time CFSv2 was trending weaker with El-Nino and this year models are trending for the strongest ever. Spring Barrier just about over as June is just over 3 weeks away.
I'll put the peak at 1.5c. The warming waters in the pacific as we move towards the summer won't allow the Kelvin wave to push above 1.6.


Tampa Bay area
That's quite a change in tune in the 12z ECMWF.

185. flsky
I imagine whatever develops will follow the Gulf Stream. It's the only warm water in the neighborhood.

Quoting 77. StormTrackerScott:

Look for yourselves folks. This model is usually really accurate with small scale features.

Just about on top of Miami

Holden Beach was nearly completely destroyed in the 1950's. One of these days there isn't going to be a turn. But until then let's enjoy the swells.


Quoting 174. Brock31:

SE NC has been referred to as the "Catchers Mit" in past years with tropical systems.

They always hook north and then turn at just the last second.

Fun forecasting. When you know its going to turn at least.
Quoting 184. CybrTeddy:

That's quite a change in tune in the 12z ECMWF.



Should be a fun end to the week here if the recent GFS/ECMWF solutions come to pass.
188. flsky
Scott, if this plays out, what can we expect in ECFL?

Quoting 173. StormTrackerScott:

It may be be decades before we see an ENSO like were about to witness it seems. The corrected PDF for the CFSv2 is @2.5C surpassing the 1997 event.


Quoting 188. flsky:

Scott, if this plays out, what can we expect in ECFL?




Lots of rain and severe weather come this Fall/Winter. Also likely means a early end to the wet season.
Quoting 185. flsky:

I imagine whatever develops will follow the Gulf Stream. It's the only warm water in the neighborhood.




That's what that model shows. The disagreement was some where saying the low was forming near Nassau when you can clearly see it forming near SE FL then it moves NNE tonight to off Daytona tomorrow afternoon.
A tornado is ongoing live on TWC.



Quoting 186. HaoleboySurfEC:

Holden Beach was nearly completely destroyed in the 1950's. One of these days there isn't going to be a turn. But until then let's enjoy the swells.





What's interesting about that storm is how the geography of the barrier islands left a little sliver between North Myrtle/Calabash and Ocean Isle/Holden Beach for the most part unscathed (from the surge). That was the beginning of what is now known as...a place I mentioned earlier about gators...Sunset Beach! But yea, one of these days...
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

NCEP folks had to adjust the chart for the CFSv2 to extend past 3C. Never seen that done before by this agency!




See, this forecast would give us roughly +2.9 for OND. And there is absolutely no way in heck that is going to happen. Absolutely ridiculous numbers.
Quoting 193. TimSoCal:



See, this forecast would give us roughly +2.9 for OND. And there is absolutely no way in heck that is going to happen. Absolutely ridiculous numbers.
Not even 1997 had numbers like that right?
18Z NAM at 12 hours
18Z NAM at 21 hours
Quoting 195. Gearsts:

Not even 1997 had numbers like that right?


Highest it ever got was 2.4.
18Z NAM at 66 hours
Okay, after updating post #144 about our German tornado(es) today (three or even more? European database has two until now), here a link to the latest video from afore mentioned severely hit town Buetzow: Inside a German tornado.

Latest gif-animation of airmass loop (12 hours). Source.

More see also: Severe Weather Europe.

I see, Texas is taking over now with current tornadoes. Good luck and good night!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBUQUERQUE NM - KABQ 242 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 341 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 434 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 313 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
TORNADO WARNING     CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
Was hoping for a bit more rain out of this system. Just a dusting so far here in Jupiter. Seems instability is still not high enough to bring it to the ground. I heard MIA got a lot today
Pretty massive tornado they had near Big Springs Tx. TWC just showed the video of it.
One would think it's been raining here for a while, it's dark and cloudy but no rain.

211. beell
Quoting 146. nrtiwlnvragn:

Radio signals puzzled astrophysicists for 17 years. They were coming from a microwave oven.

Excerpt:

Since 1998, astrophysicists at Australia's Parkes Observatory have been detecting mysterious bursts of radio waves (named "perytons") that seemed to emanate from all parts of the sky. They lasted for just fractions of a second and happened once or twice a year.


Story of the day, nrt!
ET....your Ramen's ready.
Moist air is increasing over the Western Caribbean...

Pressure starting to drop a little at Settlement Point. Someone feel like posting the pressure graphs from around the area?
Quoting 121. yoboi:



Would not surprise me if most of the thunderstorms out in the oceans this year get named to avoid future cuts....When you are out of money tough decisions will have to be made and it looks like science will not be immune....
It is not just science, it is people's lives at stake.
Hi everyone, Some of you old timers I know and some of you I have not met yet. Nice to meet you.

My area here in Broward County (SE Fla) has received .65" of rain since mid night. Most of it during the very early morning hours and just a drizzle all during the day. Total cloud cover but not a lot of rain this afternoon. Still drizzling .

Now that "season" is upon us I will will be checking in from time to time just to see what you are all saying. I checked in a few times already.
Hope you are all ready, even thought it has been predicted to be a very low storm year, we still have to watch. Cannot believe it has been 10 years since Wilma blew us away and except for a few really tropical storm flooding events without wind, that has been our last major storm.

Take care & I will check in from time to time.
Gamma

Gradually organizing.

Quoting 214. StormJunkie:

Pressure starting to drop a little at Settlement Point. Someone feel like posting the pressure graphs from around the area?


Quoting 121. yoboi:

Would not surprise me if most of the thunderstorms out in the oceans this year get named to avoid future cuts....When you are out of money tough decisions will have to be made and it looks like science will not be immune....
Quoting 215. guygee:

It is not just science, it is people's lives at stake.

guygee, you are quite right.

121...We have the money, it's printed all the time. It's just who gets it that's all. They had rather give it to their donors projects or ideology. What else could we expect from the Science committee chair whose father believes humans rode dinosaurs.
Quoting 213. hydrus:


WWB
.
. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 050600Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.5N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 47 NM EAST OF YAP, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 156.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BETTER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051120Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS FURTHER SHOWED THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER, 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Everyone enjoy the watch party and have a safe weather evening; here are some bouy readings to ponder. See Yall tomorrow sometime:

Bahamas just to the East of Palm Beach:

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:
 26.704N 78.995W
Date: Tue, 05 May 2015 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 17.1 kt gusting to 19.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.03 in and falling
Air Temperature: 71.8 F
Dew Point: 68.4 F

Offshore of Cape Kennedy:
Station 41010
NDBC
Location:
 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Tue, 05 May 2015 21:20:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.09 in
Air Temperature: 74.8 F
Dew Point: 67.5 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
225. beell
Quoting 214. StormJunkie:

Pressure starting to drop a little at Settlement Point. Someone feel like posting the pressure graphs from around the area?


Overall, background pressures are on the high side-but perhaps a bit steeper fall than what might be expected due to semi-diurnal rhythm at many stations in the area.

A little bit of dry air just a little.
The GOP attack on climate change science takes a big step forward

ving down to our worst expectations, the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology voted Thursday to cut deeply into NASA's budget for Earth science, in a clear swipe at the study of climate change.

The committee's markup of the NASA authorization bill for fiscal 2016 and 2017 passed on a party-line vote, Republicans in the majority. The action followed what appears to be a deliberate attempt to keep Democrats out of the loop. According to Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), the committee's ranking Democrat, her caucus "did not even know [the markup] existed before last Friday. ... After we saw the bill, we understood why."

It's hard to believe that in order to serve an ideological agenda, the majority is willing to slash the science that helps us have a better understanding of our planet.

- Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas)

As outlined by Marcia Smith at SpacePolicyOnline, the measure would cut NASA's Earth science budget to at most $1.45 billion in fiscal 2016, from $1.77 billion currently -- a cut of $323 million, or nearly 20%. Under some circumstances, the budget could shrink even further to $1.2 billion, a cut of nearly one-third. Compared with President Obama's request for fiscal 2016, which is $1.95 billion, the proposal would amount to a cut of at least 26%.

The budget plan perfectly reflects the House GOP's glorification of space exploration, which masks its disdain for research on climate change. Unsurprisingly, it has created consternation among experts. The American Geophysical Union observed just before the vote that NASA's Earth science programs involve more than the study of climate change as such, but "provide a basis for knowledge and understanding of natural hazards, weather forecasting, air quality, and water availability."

The Earth Science division, the organization continued, helped monitor the movement of oil into Gulf of Mexico coastal waters after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion, track severe storms and tornadoes, and assisted with flood predictions and earthquake response.
Quoting 201. barbamz:

here a link to the latest video from afore mentioned severely hit town Buetzow: Inside a German tornado.




Pictures from the tornado in Buetzow:



As someone who was in the path of this thunderstorm complex I have to say, this one had a real punch to it. I heard continuous thunder for the first time here in Hamburg, Germany. Normally the thunderstorms we get have not the instability or energy for such a phenomena. So this one could easily produce a tornado at the southern boundary of the complex. There are rare and mostly not very damaging, but this one looks different.



Quoting 208. hydrus:



Wouldn't write too much into these rainfall predictions, already had over 4" at my house in Eastern New Providence today. Some places in Eleuthera and Abaco are reporting between 10" - 15".
Quoting 224. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone enjoy the watch party and have a safe weather evening; here are some bouy readings to ponder. See Yall tomorrow sometime:

Bahamas just to the East of Palm Beach:

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:
26.704N 78.995Wbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Date:Tue, 05 May 2015 21:00:00 UTCbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
Winds:ENE (60) at 17.1 kt gusting to 19.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:30.03 in and falling
Air Temperature:71.8 F
Dew Point:68.4 F

Offshore of Cape Kennedy:
Station 41010
NDBC
Location:
28.903N 78.464W
Date:Tue, 05 May 2015 21:20:00 UTC
Winds:ENE (70) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:30.09 in
Air Temperature:74.8 F
Dew Point:67.5 F
Water Temperature:77.9 F



Something to ponder.
I wonder why Miami's pressure is currently lower than both? It won't stay that way with the system lifting to the north. But at this moment the pressure is lower.
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed NE 13 mph
Barometer 30.02 in (1016.7 mb)
Dewpoint 65F (18C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 81F (27C)
Last update 5 May 5:53 pm EDT
231. yoboi
Quoting 219. Pipejazz:

Quoting 121. yoboi:

Would not surprise me if most of the thunderstorms out in the oceans this year get named to avoid future cuts....When you are out of money tough decisions will have to be made and it looks like science will not be immune....

guygee, you are quite right.

121...We have the money, it's printed all the time. It's just who gets it that's all. They had rather give it to their donors projects or ideology. What else could we expect from the Science committee chair whose father believes humans rode dinosaurs.


Well when someone resorts to printing money usually means there is no money.....We are 20 trillion in debt and growing everyday....There will have to be some tough decisions to make...It will come to a point very soon that we will not be able to pay the interest on the money....maybe we can print our way out??? The method not working so far...
Evening, all. Just got home from work. So, the watch party begins. Given how we will probably have a very boring year, who here is hoping for the conditions to be perfect for Ana? Go ahead....raise your hands. It's in our blood :-)
Quoting 229. NasBahMan:



Wouldn't write too much into these rainfall predictions, already had over 4" at my house in Eastern New Providence today. Some places in Eleuthera and Abaco are reporting between 10" - 15".
thats a lot of fricken rain....Moisture is increasing with this. NAM wants to tighten this up, and make landfall.



A few thunderstorms and some rain again this evening
235. MahFL
Shear is down to 20 kts se of FL.

Quoting 217. CybrTeddy:

Gradually organizing.




Is tht an eye... XP
237. 882MB
Sun is rising, on what I would say a slow moving bugger (Noul). Yap has been getting hammered with heavy rains since yesterday, as this sea turtle swims by. I think they haven't seen sunlight since the day before yesterday, hopefully later on this afternoon, they get there much needed break.



Quoting 232. nash36:

Evening, all. Just got home from work. So, the watch party begins. Given how we will probably have a very boring year, who here is hoping for the conditions to be perfect for Ana? Go ahead....raise your hands. It's in our blood :-)


Spoke with Stormjunkie today.....he wants to live stream from s/v Tumbleweed, Too at Ashley Marina...will let ya know when we nail it down...I'll provide booze and food...you're gonna have to bring your own woman...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Well just in case this thing becomes Ana, imma set my predictions at 9/4/2.

2 storms between now and the end of July
5 in August and September
2 in October and November

I would like to get to Joaquin however, maybe 10.. :P
Quoting 234. stormpetrol:



A few thunderstorms and some rain again this evening



At least you're getting some rain.
242. MahFL
Interesting line of storms lined up with the Gulfstream.

may 11th ,15 ,the very first storm of the season is approaching North Carolina ,erosion,heavy rain and coastal flood events are ahead
Quoting 238. presslord:



Spoke with Stormjunkie today.....he wants to live stream from s/v Tumbleweed, Too at Ashley Marina...will let ya know when we nail it down...I'll provide booze and food...you're gonna have to bring your own woman...


If I can convince the wife, we're on. The synoptics appear to be lining up nicely.
Looks like a witches brew in the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see what comes of it.....

Howdy to all of my old friends, good to see all of you once again...... :)
Quoting 245. thelmores:

Looks like a witches brew in the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see what comes of it.....

Howdy to all of my old friends, good to see all of you once again...... :)


Howdy, Thel. Good to see you.
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

NCEP folks had to adjust the chart for the CFSv2 to extend past 3C. Never seen that done before by this agency!



An "El Meaño"?
248. vis0
Quoting 247. Misanthroptimist:


An "El Meaño"?
never say nunca...
Wow I said there is a chance for +3 degrees in the el Nino regions and I got crucified for it. I guess the CFS is seeing what I saw