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California Rainy Season Ending; January-April rain in San Francisco Lowest on Record

By: Jeff Masters 2:44 PM GMT on April 30, 2015

The fourth consecutive severely dry California rainy season is drawing to a close. Rain-bearing low pressure systems typically stop bringing heavy rains to the state by mid-April, as the jet stream shifts to the north in its usual springtime migration. With almost no rain in the forecast for the next seven days, and the 16-day GFS model forecast showing mostly light rains affecting the northern portion of the state 8 - 16 days from now, California has likely seen over 95% of the precipitation that it’s going to get this anemic rainy season. What little precipitation did fall this winter came mainly in the form of rain, thanks to record-warm ocean temperatures off of the coast. This resulted in snow falling only at very high elevations, keeping the critical Sierra snowpack--which provides one-third of the state's water--at record low levels. According to the California Department of Water Resources, snow depths in the Sierras are the lowest on record for this time of year, only 2% of average, and the Southern Sierras have no snow at all--nearly three months earlier than usual. California's eight largest reservoirs are 30% - 83% below their historical average, and the portion of the state covered by the highest level of drought--"Exceptional"--was at 47% this week. The area covered by "Exceptional" drought peaked at a record 58% during the summer of 2014, and this mark may well fall during the summer of 2015.


Figure 1. Aerial view showing recreational boats by the Bidwell Marina at Lake Oroville, California on March 2, 2015. Lake Oroville, California's 2nd largest reservoir, was at 62% of average on April 29, 2015, which was its third lowest level since 1989. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Record dryness in San Francisco
According to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, with just 1.30” of precipitation in downtown San Francisco this April and no chance of any additional rain to the end of the month, the January-April period will have a total of only 2.89”--easily the lowest on record, and well below the approximately 11.5" of rain the city usually gets. San Francisco got no rain at all in January, the first January on record that has occurred. Here is a list of the top ten driest Jan-April periods on record since 1850 in San Francisco:

1.   2.89” 2015
2.   3.54” 2013
3.   3.68” 1898
4.   4.01” 1976
5.   4.43” 1851
6.   4.75” 1972
7.   4.92” 1862
8.   4.92” 1864
9.   5.08” 1984
10. 5.11” 1977


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Thursday, May 7, 2015. With the exception of light rains in the Sierras, California will be dry this week. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

The long-range forecast: hot, dry, and more intense drought
The latest 3-month outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, private forecasting firm WSI, and Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society all call for above-average chances of hotter than usual weather in California though July, and the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist or intensify over California. This should be no surprise, given that ocean temperatures along the coast of California are at record or near-record levels for this time of year, and will be slow to change. These record warm ocean temperatures will drive hotter weather and more intense drought this summer than otherwise would occur, and this summer's fire season will likely be severe. Next winter, California has a decent chance of getting a better rainy season, if the current El Niño event manages to intensify into a strong one (an event predicted by several of our better El Niño models.) Still, the Sierras need 1.7 - 2.9 times more precipitation than a usual rainy season brings to bust the drought; some portions of the state need even more than that.


Figure 3. Ocean temperatures off the coast of California were at record or near-record levels for this time of year on April 29, 2015. Ocean temperatures off the coast of Los Angeles and San Diego were more than 4°C (7.2°F) above average, an astonishingly high anomaly. These high temperatures were due to a combination of effects: a very persistent ridge (the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or RRR) that has been in place along the West Coast much of the past three years, bringing warm air temperatures and little mixing of cool waters from the depths; a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a decades-long natural pattern; and global warming, which has warmed oceans world-wide over the past century-plus. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Modeling Center.

Portlight disaster relief charity raising funds for Nepal earthquake relief
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has connected with disability stakeholders in Nepal, India and Pakistan to seek their input on how best to help our brothers and sisters affected by their devastating earthquake. Portlight has determined that they can be of the most service by raising funds to directly support the relief and recovery efforts of these and other in-country stakeholder organizations. You can donate to this effort at this link:

https://www.commitchange.com/sc/charleston/portlight-strategies-inc/campaigns/portlight-nepal-earthquake-fund

You can follow the progress of the relief effort on the Portlight Blog. Thanks!

FYI, we are having some technical issues with some of the blog comments disappearing, and are looking into the cause.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

California Gov. Jerry Brown Orders Aggressive Greenhouse Gas Cuts By 2030
Posted: 04/29/2015 11:39 am EDT Updated: 39 minutes ago


California Gov. Jerry Brown issued an executive order Wednesday directing the state to cut is greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, the toughest proposed cuts of any state in the nation.

The 2030 target will ensure that California can meet its emissions target for the middle of this century, which calls for an 80 percent cut by 2050, Brown said. The state is already on pace to meet its goal of bringing heat-trapping emissions down to 1990 levels by 2020, a target set under a 2006 state law.

"With this order, California sets a very high bar for itself and other states and nations, but it's one that must be reached -- for this generation and generations to come," said Brown in a statement Wednesday morning.

Brown noted that the target puts California in line with the European Union, which has also committed to a 40 percent reduction by 2030.

The governor's office also said the target would put the state on track to reduce its own emissions to the level that nations around the world will need to meet to limit global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, "the warming threshold at which scientists say there will likely be major climate disruptions such as super droughts and rising sea levels."

The cuts are more aggressive than the federal targets that the Obama administration has outlined, which call for reducing emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. (Emissions levels were lower in 1990 than in 2005.)

Brown's executive order identified specific climate impacts to California, noting that the state is already seeing "loss of snowpack, drought, sea level rise, more frequent and intense wildfires, heat waves, more severe smog, and harm to natural and working lands."

"Governor Brown’s announcement demonstrates that California leaders can continue to set the pace for the rest of the world when it comes to tackling the urgent climate crisis and stepping up efforts to adapt to its already-harmful effects,” said Lauren Faber, West Coast political director at the Environmental Defense Fund, in a statement.
thanks for update doc
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Link
If you want to come and join the conversation.
MON-THU...OLD FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE PULLED
BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS AT MID WEEK
AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK.
IT APPEARS THAT
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE EARLY IN
THE WEEK WHEN ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE...THOUGH A RATHER TIGHT POP
GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY SET UP WITH NORTHERN AREAS HAVING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...WE ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE
DRIER BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
YAWN old news we CA all ready no



but thanks for the update
concerning california's drought....what is not talked about...but is happening to friends of mine in drought stricken rural areas....their wells have dried up.....i have a friend who has been trying to sell her house.....and no buyers since she doesn't have water
a friend from south florida just shot me an e-mail od 2.5 inch hail that hit south florida on the 27th.....said it was from okeechobbee all the way to stuart........
Strange brew, look what's inside of you'......

The city of Santa Barbara built the Charles E. Meyer desalination plant in the 1990s during the last long drought.

They ran it for four months. Then the drought ended, so they mothballed the plant but didn't take it apart. Just in case.

"Even though it wasn't producing water for the last 20 years, it was still an existing facility. We kept its permits up," says Santa Barbara's mayor Helen Schneider. "Because we know that drought is going to happen again. It's a cyclical thing."

Link

Knowing that it's cyclical good thing they did not tear it down....
Quoting 10. ricderr:

a friend from south florida just shot me an e-mail od 2.5 inch hail that hit south florida on the 27th.....said it was from okeechobbee all the way to stuart........



Dat kinda Hail can leave a bad mark.... ric.

On the windshield and yer noggin.

Quoting ricderr:
a friend from south florida just shot me an e-mail od 2.5 inch hail that hit south florida on the 27th.....said it was from okeechobbee all the way to stuart........


Lake O area seems to be an area that produces a lot of severe weather.
They had some large hail, confirmed tornado, many reports of funnel clouds (different day than the tornado), and straight lined winds over 60 mph with the storms in that area earlier this week.

All we got here in Fort Myers is some thunder and an inch of rain. None of the storms were even close to being severe.
Oh and I've mentioned this before. It has only hailed one time(pea size) in over 20 years at my location just S.E. of Fort Myers.
Thank You Dr. El Nino produces boom for some parts of the world and bust for others. With territory as large as the US, one can only hope that local/state/federal officials work together to help mitigate some of the impacts for California in the coming months.................The next rainy season for them is a long way off.
Thanks Dr. Masters....
1/1/2015-4/30/2015 rainfall here was 2.33"(12 rain days). according to CoCoRaHS.
KRAL shows 1.04' for the same period.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/l/l lpj04/11187-awesome.jpg
A question for you weather guys/gals...... is this picture I took associated with a tornadic cell? I took it around 8:43 am on the 27th. 5 Tornadoes were confirmed with some damage in Baton Rouge, Ponchatoula, Houma & New Orleans.
At the time I took this photo the lower clouds were moving from the northeast to the southwest. While the upper clouds were moving from the west to the east.


I appreciate any info because I am just curious about the weather but don't know much (obviously) about it other than taking photos. : )
20. vis0

Quoting 12. yoboi:

The city of Santa Barbara built the Charles E. Meyer desalination plant in the 1990s during the last long drought.

They ran it for four months. Then the drought ended, so they mothballed the plant but didn't take it apart. Just in case.

"Even though it wasn't producing water for the last 20 years, it was still an existing facility. We kept its permits up," says Santa Barbara's mayor Helen Schneider. "Because we know that drought is going to happen again. It's a cyclical thing."

Link

Knowing that it's cyclical good thing they did not tear it down....

especially if that (dry and or hot ) cycle becomes bigger...and Ca. neighbors (near by state maybe a pipe to even Canada) will pay to use your d-plant(s) when their dry/hot cycle gets bigger and more water is consumed.
 i hear [patrap] sing i mean say that this (co2) cycle is going to be a dooozee (sit down Coloradans i didn't say doobie) a few hundred generations before it goes down UNLESS some invention lowers the co2 dramatically.

BTW WxU cordially invites those members that were recently T(mp)-banned to use pgs 3 & 4 AS MUCH AS YOU WANT
most of the clouds around 11:30 am looked like mammatus ? :




so it was strange to see that cloud with the two long tunnel like tails.
Hopefully, w/ this 2nd year El Nino, we'll be able to eradicate the current -EPO/+TNH dominated configuration & the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex because it is one of (if not the) primary reason why California continues to suffer from their worst drought since at least the late 1980s if not 1975-77...

I personally get very frustrated with the over-arching, baseless blanket ENSO statements about California rainfall, (i.e. El Nino=wet, La Nina=Dry) there are many instances (like last year or 1976-77) where this doesn't necessarily work...

The N America z500 in the top 10 wettest and driest winters in California are pretty self-explanatory as far as I'm concerned, it's virtually a cut & paste of the Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH), which is a reflection of the intensity of the Hudson Bay Vortex & the eastward the eastward extent of the Pacific Jet (wet California=-TNH, weak Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex, dry California=+TNH, strong Hudson Bay Greenland Vortex). I've seen some patterns/weather phenomena correspond to various teleconnections, but this is about as straightforward/robust as I've ever seen...

N America z500 Top 10 Wettest California Winters (DJF) 1948-Present



N America z500 Top 10 Driest California Winters 1948-Present


DJF N America z500 correlation to the TNH



This is also confined by NOAA ESRL's DJF precip correlation. The area in & around San Francisco appears to be the center of attention w/ regards to the TNH w/ the correlation topping out near about .7 (moderate-strong). ENSO doesn't hold a candle to the TNH in terms of California precipitation...

DJF US precip corrlation to NINO 3.4



DJF US precip correlation to the TNH (same scaling as above)



ENSO is honestly ok, but compared to the TNH & the patterns that lead to extreme anomalies in California winter precipitation, it projects about 25-30 degrees too far east, leaving plenty of room for error...
Broke 60 here in S C IL, but not supposed to get much higher, mid 60s as current 8-12 N winds increase to 15-20 this p.m., current gusts just under 20. Dew pts in mid 30s, Pressure just above 29.9". Rain has been removed from weekend forecast, so suspect the 16 bigger yellow morels grandson & I found last night on his first mushroom hunt will be last of season.

By looks of model in 11), farmers will be going full bore for awhile. Heading to patch last night it looked like most of last years bean ground has been planted or was in process. Most of last year's corn ground hadn't been worked (or further worked) yet, imagine from planting intentions, most will be going to beans, so once corn planted, they'll be on those soon.
Thanks dok!

Now we know what is going on with comments.
A low has formed WSW of Grand Cayman

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
A low has formed WSW of Grand Cayman



Good or bad?
Quoting 25. wunderkidcayman:

A low has formed WSW of Grand Cayman




N-NNE of Rotan Honduras
Quoting 23. dabirds:

Broke 60 here in S C IL, but not supposed to get much higher, mid 60s as current 8-12 N winds increase to 15-20 this p.m., current gusts just under 20. Dew pts in mid 30s, Pressure just above 29.9". Rain has been removed from weekend forecast, so suspect the 16 bigger yellow morels grandson & I found last night on his first mushroom hunt will be last of season.

By looks of model in 11), farmers will be going full bore for awhile. Heading to patch last night it looked like most of last years bean ground has been planted or was in process. Most of last year's corn ground hadn't been worked (or further worked) yet, imagine from planting intentions, most will be going to beans, so once corn planted, they'll be on those soon.


could still have another week with the mushrooms .. up here we usually have to break 80º to 85º before the end of the mushrooms .. but has been dry so finding them is a bit harder from what I have heard .. been eating a good batch about everyday for the past 2 weeks ..
Quoting 26. 62901IL:



Good or bad?


Have no idea
But I suspect this is the nucleus to the possible tropical development expected to near Florida Georgia and Carolina next week
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Have no idea
But I suspect this is the nucleus to the possible tropical development expected to near Florida Georgia and Carolina next week


Perhaps you are right. We shall see.
Quoting 8. ricderr:

concerning california's drought....what is not talked about...but is happening to friends of mine in drought stricken rural areas....their wells have dried up.....i have a friend who has been trying to sell her house.....and no buyers since she doesn't have water
Probably, went dry because the big mega-agri neighbors pumped the aquifer down below their pump intake. The well-drillers love it -- big bucks for drilling a couple of thousand feet down to reach the lowering water table. As long as it keeps up less affluent folks will run dry. California needs strict well depth regulation -- no matter how deep the well the intake can not be below "X". Everyone should be under the same restriction.
Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:



Have no idea
But I suspect this is the nucleus to the possible tropical development expected to near Florida Georgia and Carolina next week
I believe so too. You can talk about it in my blog too.
Thanks Jeff...
Though it's been overcast all morning, we didn't get our first rain over downtown Nassau until about 1/2 hour ago....
Thank goodness for a little easterly breeze which is keeping us from stultifying in the heat ....



Practically a non-event for us, aside from the cloud cover ....
"FYI, we are having some technical issues with some of the blog comments disappearing, and are looking into the cause."

Thanks for addressing this, Dr Jeff.
Has all the earmarks of tech glitch, not admin broadly censoring.
or …
Disgruntled Classic-fan Hack Attack?
;)

doesnt look like it is going to give us any relief unfortunately most of the weather maybe to the west of us:(


Quoting 25. wunderkidcayman:

A low has formed WSW of Grand Cayman


Quoting 22. Webberweather53:

Hopefully, w/ this 2nd year El Nino, we'll be able to eradicate the current -EPO/+TNH dominated configuration & the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex because it is one of (if not the) primary reason why California continues to suffer from their worst drought since at least the late 1980s if not 1975-77...

I personally get very frustrated with the over-arching, baseless blanket ENSO statements about California rainfall, (i.e. El Nino=wet, La Nina=Dry) there are many instances (like last year or 1976-77) where this doesn't necessarily work...

The N America z500 in the top 10 wettest and driest winters in California are pretty self-explanatory as far as I'm concerned, it's virtually a cut & paste of the Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH), which is a reflection of the intensity of the Hudson Bay Vortex & the eastward the eastward extent of the Pacific Jet (wet California=-TNH, weak Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex, dry California=+TNH, strong Hudson Bay Greenland Vortex). I've seen some patterns/weather phenomena correspond to various teleconnections, but this is about as straightforward/robust as I've ever seen...

N America z500 Top 10 Wettest California Winters (DJF) 1948-Present



N America z500 Top 10 Driest California Winters 1948-Present


DJF N America z500 correlation to the TNH



This is also confined by NOAA ESRL's DJF precip correlation. The area in & around San Francisco appears to be the center of attention w/ regards to the TNH w/ the correlation topping out near about .7 (moderate-strong). ENSO doesn't hold a candle to the TNH in terms of California precipitation...

DJF US precip corrlation to NINO 3.4



DJF US precip correlation to the TNH (same scaling as above)



ENSO is honestly ok, but compared to the TNH & the patterns that lead to extreme anomalies in California winter precipitation, it projects about 25-30 degrees too far east, leaving plenty of room for error...



I don't think everyone insists El Nino means a guarantee in California getting a rainy winter. Sure maybe some do, but that doesn't account for all of us. Most of us will just say that it's likely to. That is it's probable, but not guaranteed.

Expectations from El Nino is based on a probabilistic outcome, like many other things in meteorology.
Some interesting Tweets coming from Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State with regards to ENSO.

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · Apr 28
All weekly ENSO indices (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4) have SST anomalies >=1C for first time since November 15, 2006.


Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · Apr 29
Tropical Pacific much warmer now than it was in late April 2014. Currently moving towards a moderate/strong El Nino.
so there is not a weather spotter or storm chaser in the room that can give me any clue as to the photo in comment 19??
I think I have seen info about becoming a storm spotter and meetings in Mandeville. Maybe some day I'll do that.

Quoting 19. llpj04:


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/l/l lpj04/11187-awesome.jpg
A question for you weather guys/gals...... is this picture I took associated with a tornadic cell? I took it around 8:43 am on the 27th. 5 Tornadoes were confirmed with some damage in Baton Rouge, Ponchatoula, Houma & New Orleans.
At the time I took this photo the lower clouds were moving from the northeast to the southwest. While the upper clouds were moving from the west to the east.


I appreciate any info because I am just curious about the weather but don't know much (obviously) about it other than taking photos. : )

Quoting 38. Jedkins01:



I don't think everyone insists El Nino means a guarantee in California getting a rainy winter. Sure maybe some do, but that doesn't account for all of us. Most of us will just say that it's likely to. That is it's probable, but not guaranteed.

Expectations from El Nino is based on a probabilistic outcome, like many other things in meteorology.


If El-Nino intensifies into a Strong one then most certainly California can expect a wet upcoming Winter. Weak & Moderate El-Nino's aren't a show in though for a wet Winter. So my point is California really has to have a Strong El-Nino to really GTY a wetter than normal wet season.
Quoting 37. 19N81W:

doesnt look like it is going to give us any relief unfortunately most of the weather maybe to the west of us:(





No it appears moving into our direction so relief in in order
Looking at the forecast rain all the way through middle of next week
So don't dispair
Quoting 10. ricderr:

a friend from south florida just shot me an e-mail od 2.5 inch hail that hit south florida on the 27th.....said it was from okeechobbee all the way to stuart........


Yep that was an odd day, unusually steep mid level lapse rates for South Florida, dry air aloft, and a substantial amount of shear allowed for a situation that made it unusually conducive for large hail in south Florida. Usually either one or both of those is too weak for large hail, with usually the culprit being not very steep lapse rates in the mid and upper levels that keeps hail less often to occur and smaller there.

Hail greater than quarter size is pretty uncommon in Florida, although hail in general isn't nearly as common in Florida for the amount of thunderstorms that occur. If there is ever a time to see large hail though, it usually is April and May as low level temps start to warm, but lapse rates and shear are still more favorable for hail.

Once the environment gets more tropical in the summer, the chances of hail, and especially large hail goes way down as lapse rates get weaker, and the environment becomes more saturated and less sheared.
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:



If El-Nino intensifies into a Strong one then most certainly California can expect a wet upcoming Winter. Weak & Moderate El-Nino's aren't a show in though for a wet Winter. So my point is California really has to have a Strong El-Nino to really GTY a wetter than normal wet season.


Well yes the strength of an El Nino event does greatly increase the probability of that precip increase, I was just referring to El Nino in general. But the scaling of the event is important, I've looked over correlation with El Nino events in Florida, and weak ones are pretty hit and miss, not a drastic wet signal, but that strongest El Nino events have resulted in off the charts low pressure and precip anomalies across Florida.
Some storms are developing, and could be producing small hail.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


That low you mentioned forming near the Yucatan looks to be doing something.
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:

Some interesting Tweets coming from Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State with regards to ENSO.

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · Apr 28
All weekly ENSO indices (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4) have SST anomalies >=1C for first time since November 15, 2006.


Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · Apr 29
Tropical Pacific much warmer now than it was in late April 2014. Currently moving towards a moderate/strong El Nino.



I don't think it will get strong nor do I think it will last
Sorry

Anyway lets see what happens
I sure hope your right wunderkid...but our area having so much dust in the atmosphere and the convection of to our west moving nne cant help but be pessimistic....seems like it is going to have to shift quite a bit to the east and north to really impact us....but fingers crossed

Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:



No it appears moving into our direction so relief in in order
Looking at the forecast rain all the way through middle of next week
So don't dispair
Quoting 47. 62901IL:



That low you mentioned forming near the Yucatan looks to be doing something.


The low has formed and it's not near the Yucatan
It's more closer to the Gulf of Honduras Rotan area just WSW of Grand Cayman
Quoting 44. Jedkins01:



Well yes the strength of an El Nino event does greatly increase the probability of that precip increase, I was just referring to El Nino in general. But the scaling of the event is important, I've looked over correlation with El Nino events in Florida, and weak ones are pretty hit and miss, not a drastic wet signal, but that strongest El Nino events have resulted in off the charts low pressure and precip anomalies across Florida.


Even moderate El-Nino is hit or miss even here in FL rainfall wise as was the case in 2006/2007. Strong El-Nino's though have produced some of the worst weather I've ever seen in FL. Those tornado outbreaks in February 1998 were about as bad as it gets around here. We had a F4 tornado travel just miles from our house toward Sanford and I will never forget just how massive it was and green looking as lightning was striking around the tornado as it was traveling NE toward lake Jessup at 12am

YIKES, DOOM, it was supposed to be cooling off. 81.1F right now (11:00)
Quoting 49. 19N81W:

I sure hope your right wunderkid...but our area having so much dust in the atmosphere and the convection of to our west moving nne cant help but be pessimistic....seems like it is going to have to shift quite a bit to the east and north to really impact us....but fingers crossed




Yep hope so too but what sucks I have to go to Jamaica tomorrow morning and come back on Monday morning so won't be here to enjoy it
Quoting 48. wunderkidcayman:



I don't think it will get strong nor do I think it will last
Sorry

Anyway lets see what happens


Well that guy putting out those Tweets works @ Colorado State.
Quoting 38. Jedkins01:



I don't think everyone insists El Nino means a guarantee in California getting a rainy winter. Sure maybe some do, but that doesn't account for all of us. Most of us will just say that it's likely to. That is it's probable, but not guaranteed.

Expectations from El Nino is based on a probabilistic outcome, like many other things in meteorology.


And with that pesky polar jet doing all sorts of crazy stuff, the 'Pineapple Express' could shift north or south.
Even to this day you can see where the tornado lifted in Sanford as it lifted right at the South Runway of the Sanford/Orlando international Airport.
Quoting 38. Jedkins01:



I don't think everyone insists El Nino means a guarantee in California getting a rainy winter. Sure maybe some do, but that doesn't account for all of us. Most of us will just say that it's likely to. That is it's probable, but not guaranteed.

Expectations from El Nino is based on a probabilistic outcome, like many other things in meteorology.


I never said, nor implied that, the probabilities (as I showed in that post) are very weak @ best (except in extreme southern California) in relation to California winter rainfall & ENSO. The eastward extension/intensity of the Pacific jet in the NE Pacific is ultimately (along w/ occasional southern stream energy impulses) what determine CA rainfall, and ENSO (because again it projects on the extratropical PNA-like response) however, especially during weaker events, may not always accurately represent the Pacific Jet behavior in the NE Pacific. The TNH on the other hand, is a far better descriptor of how California is going to perform rainfall-wise because it is a direct reflection of the Hudson Bay Low & the location/intensity & eastward extension of the Pacific et. Normally, these extratropical teleconnections are transient, however, the persistence and ferocity of the HB-Greenland Vortex has almost made this a quasi-permanent feature during the past few years, but once this vortex is broken down, precipitation will increase markedly...
Quoting 38. Jedkins01:

I don't think everyone insists El Nino means a guarantee in California getting a rainy winter. Sure maybe some do, but that doesn't account for all of us. Most of us will just say that it's likely to. That is it's probable, but not guaranteed.

Expectations from El Nino is based on a probabilistic outcome, like many other things in meteorology.


Hopefully a increase in rainfall will occur but almost any amount will be an increase over what they received in moisture this winter ..
59. JRRP
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:



If El-Nino intensifies into a Strong one then most certainly California can expect a wet upcoming Winter. Weak & Moderate El-Nino's aren't a show in though for a wet Winter. So my point is California really has to have a Strong El-Nino to really GTY a wetter than normal wet season.


While anecdote and confirmation bias may support this statement, actual data derived probabilities don't. Tendency, yes, Certainty, no. A good primer Link

Quoting 59. JRRP:


Quoting ricderr:
a friend from south florida just shot me an e-mail od 2.5 inch hail that hit south florida on the 27th.....said it was from okeechobbee all the way to stuart........
Here's a hail heat map from that event. The darker the color, the larger the hail:

Oh gfs gods please make this happen!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


The low has formed and it's not near the Yucatan
It's more closer to the Gulf of Honduras Rotan area just WSW of Grand Cayman


Oh.
65. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Oh gfs gods please make this happen!

we need it
Quoting JRRP:

we need it


NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED!!!!!!!!!!!

*even tho I don't live there*
Quoting 59. JRRP:


Quoting 61. Gearsts:


Quoting 63. Gearsts:

Oh gfs gods please make this happen!

Quoting 65. JRRP:


we need it


Lol
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

Here's a hail heat map from that event. The darker the color, the larger the hail:




how rare is an event like this for that far south in Florida ?? 2 1/2 inches seem very large for that part of the country ..
Quoting 66. 62901IL:



NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED!!!!!!!!!!!

*even tho I don't live there*


We need it
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


We need it


NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 40. llpj04:

so there is not a weather spotter or storm chaser in the room that can give me any clue as to the photo in comment 19??
I think I have seen info about becoming a storm spotter and meetings in Mandeville. Maybe some day I'll do that.


The bottom of the video clip appears to have slight circulation but its kinda hard to tell. The trees obscure it a bit. Radar images would help you determine if a cell is showing tornadic tendencies. A storm spotter class will teach you quite a bit. I recommend taking one if possible.
I guess someone could ask Canada nicely, if that fails, war is an option.
Quoting 40. llpj04:

so there is not a weather spotter or storm chaser in the room that can give me any clue as to the photo in comment 19??
I think I have seen info about becoming a storm spotter and meetings in Mandeville. Maybe some day I'll do that.




But what is a scud cloud?

Scud clouds are detached cloud formations found on the base of cumulonimbus clouds. It occurs as a result of water vapor condensation under the base of a storm cloud due to the presence of huge amounts of moisture in the outflow region of the storm cloud. Scud cloud is totally harmless but it may develop into a wall cloud once it rises and moves laterally toward the inflow region of a thunderstorm.
Good afternoon

Hot, dry, dusty conditions prevailing in the NW Caribbean today. The forecast from 24 hours ago was for rain to move into the Cayman area around 6 PM today but with high pressure anchored near 18N and 67W the moisture seems to be shunting around to our NW. Got my fingers crossed but the synopsis below from the Discussion is not encouraging.

water vapor imagery indicates much of the Caribbean basin is
under the influence of dry and stable flow aloft associated with
an upper level anticyclone centered near 18n67w
. The anticyclone
is providing for overall mostly clear skies and fair conditions
this afternoon generally E of 78w. W of 78w...on the far western
periphery of the upper level ridging...mid-level moisture
increases as southwesterly flow is noted to the north across the
Gulf of Mexico. In addition...a cold front extends from offshore
of western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to the NE tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula with a pre-frontal surface trough extending
from 21n83w into a 1009 mb low near 18n85w to western Honduras
near 15n87w. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are mostly
focused in the vicinity of the surface trough...however overall
the activity remains N of 15n W of 82w
Amazing that Key West got over 5.25 inches of rain flooding street and some buildings ..

that is over 1/10 of their average rainfall of 46.8 inches in less the 24 hours .. and it didn't break the record though ..

Quoting llpj04:
so there is not a weather spotter or storm chaser in the room that can give me any clue as to the photo in comment 19??
I think I have seen info about becoming a storm spotter and meetings in Mandeville. Maybe some day I'll do that.

Sorry you didn't get an answer before this. Your picture in post #21 could be mammatus, but it also could be stratocumulous as part of a confused sky that's often seen with thunderstorms in the vicinity. You'd need a couple more pictures from different angles to determine if it was mammatus. The downward bulge at the base of the clouds is there, but not consistently there, like we'd see with a classic mammatus. I'm not sure what you mean by seeing tunnel like tails however.

Your first picture in post #19 is likely fractostratus as the higher cumulus or cumulonimbus is being pulled apart by strong low level winds. There's nothing in the picture to suggest it's part of a tornado complex but it does suggest strong winds at close to ground level. This is a case where a video would be helpful to see if there's any sign of rotation.

The video in the same post shows scud clouds at low level (probably 500 feet or less) also being torn off the higher based cumulus clouds. It's pretty common to see scud clouds moving in a different direction than higher based clouds since they are affected more by the strong low level winds developed in the outflow of thunderstorms.

None of your images show anything definitely related to a tornado but any of them could be the result of a tornado nearby. If you have the exact time the images were taken along with the lat/long, or at least a reasonably precise location on the map, we could match it up with radar and see if there was a tornado anywhere in the vicinity.
Could the Atlantic Hurricane Season Start Early? Published Apr 30 2015 01:40 PM EDT The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November. However, the atmosphere doesn't always conform to that. Occasionally a storm develops early, and that could happen off the Southeast coast next week.



The Setup
The potential setup for this begins with a leftover, fading frontal boundary over the southwest Atlantic, the Bahamas and Cuba. This is the same frontal boundary that brought a much-needed soaking to South Florida earlier this week and gave Key West its third-heaviest April day of rain on record Wednesday.

This old frontal boundary will be revived by an infusion of energy from the southern, or subtropcial, branch of the jet stream. This will cause an area of low pressure to form near the northwest Bahamas or off Florida's East Coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Because water temperatures are generally running above average in the Bahamas and over the Gulf Stream now, according to senior meteorologist Stu Ostro, this would help fuel thunderstorms near the low's circulation.

This area of disturbed weather is then expected to be drawn to the north or northeast through mid-late next week.
flooding in Havana leave 3 dead and extensive damage. Get the details on my blog
www.consultorageomet.blogspot.com
Quoting 40. llpj04:

so there is not a weather spotter or storm chaser in the room that can give me any clue as to the photo in comment 19??
I think I have seen info about becoming a storm spotter and meetings in Mandeville. Maybe some day I'll do that.




Appears could possibly been a brief funnel in top photo - along with confirmed tornadoes, a lot of 'em were reported that day across SE LA. But Wabit makes a good point too, as seems could been both scud and / or a funnel. Actually had that photo been the animated gif might could determine somewhat better. Good capture tho!

And as Storms306 mentioned perhaps see if correlates with radar imagery at the time, even though such small scale funnel activity was popping up / fading so quick, radar might not be conclusive either. Also agree, take the NWS StormWarn class when you get a chance, very informative for wx observers of all ages and experience.


the big ? mark here!!
El-Nino will be here soon!!!
So for this year San Antonio has almost doubled it's average rainfall to date. With the wet period coming up once more we are keeping pace with 2007 which ended up being the wettest summer on record for the entire state.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA ON GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT TIMES,
AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS, IF THAT, ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEEKEND, IN GREAT CONTRAST TO THE RECORD HEAT WHICH WAS
OBSERVED LAST WEEKEND.

A ROBUST MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH SATURDAY. OBVIOUSLY, VERY DRY
AIR AT H7 WILL MITIGATE PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS WAVE. DESPITE
THIS, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE, AND MAY EXPAND
AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE BLENDS CONSIDERING ITS
STRENGTH, AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY MORE DAMP.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE EASTERN COAST AND THEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME COASTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS OCCURS.

PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEARBY THE OLD FRONT
RESTING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WEST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PERSISTENT WET PATTERN, THUS HIGH
POPS INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST ARE JUSTIFIED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITHIN THIS
REGIME.
Quoting 60. OregonAndy:



While anecdote and confirmation bias may support this statement, actual data derived probabilities don't. Tendency, yes, Certainty, no. A good primer Link




Yeah the ENSO & MEI relationship to California winter rainfall is extremely noisy & exceedingly weak at best...



Not surprisingly, the same analysis w/ the TNH leads to more robust results...
Quoting 79. Gustavike:

flooding in Havana leave 3 dead and extensive damage. Get the details on my blog
www.consultorageomet.blogspot.com

That is so sad -- not a nice way to treat a 60+ year old Pontiac. My Dad had one about that same model in the early 50s. Hope they can dry it out and get it back running.
fine line between the haves and have nots in that the caymen islands are reporting desert like conditions yet havanna cuba there is flooding.
Yup that is exactly what I thought......just wondering why our met department can't see that or properly explain the persistent weather and not to mention the dust as well?

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 74. kmanislander:

Good afternoon

Hot, dry, dusty conditions prevailing in the NW Caribbean today. The forecast from 24 hours ago was for rain to move into the Cayman area around 6 PM today but with high pressure anchored near 18N and 67W the moisture seems to be shunting around to our NW. Got my fingers crossed but the synopsis below from the Discussion is not encouraging.

water vapor imagery indicates much of the Caribbean basin is
under the influence of dry and stable flow aloft associated with
an upper level anticyclone centered near 18n67w
. The anticyclone
is providing for overall mostly clear skies and fair conditions
this afternoon generally E of 78w. W of 78w...on the far western
periphery of the upper level ridging...mid-level moisture
increases as southwesterly flow is noted to the north across the
Gulf of Mexico. In addition...a cold front extends from offshore
of western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to the NE tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula with a pre-frontal surface trough extending
from 21n83w into a 1009 mb low near 18n85w to western Honduras
near 15n87w. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are mostly
focused in the vicinity of the surface trough...however overall
the activity remains N of 15n W of 82w

Thanks for the new blog, doc, and moreover the last remark in it.

When looking for some drought news - of course, a lot are available, like this one: Yosemite's Half Dome opens three weeks early because of California's drought - I came across the following sort of drought as well:

US hurricane drought is 'basically dumb luck', scientists say
No hurricanes category 3 or above have hit the United States for a decade, the longest recorded stretch since scientists began tracking the storms
The Guardian, Peter Moskowitz in New York, Thursday 30 April 2015 19.10 BST
[snip] New research from Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, published this week in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests the historic drought is likely just a coincidence.
“We concluded it’s basically dumb luck,” said co-author of the report and senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute Dr Timothy Hall. “If [the drought] went on and on and on we’d question our assumptions, but for now it seems to be luck.” ...
Hall said the lack of major wind damage from hurricanes in the last decade could have serious consequences if people are lulled into a sense of complacency about extreme weather.
Hall’s study, carried out with Kelly Hereid from ACE Tempest RE, a reinsurance firm, found that insurance rates were falling in hurricane-prone areas, and people were flocking to the coasts – meaning there could be more damage when a major hurricane eventually makes landfall.

Whole article see link above.

Moreover, this morning an interesting article was published by BBC about the first weather forecast 1861 and the man who invented it, including the word "forecast":

The birth of the weather forecast
BBC magazine, 30 April 2015
The man who invented the weather forecast in the 1860s faced scepticism and even mockery. But science was on his side, writes Peter Moore. ...
105.
Really? 90-111 seem missing. OMG what a Mess. POOF!!!!
113. txjac
Quoting 112. PedleyCA:

Really? 90-111 seem missing. OMG what a Mess. POOF!!!!


This occurring around the same time time that classic is being retired is probably not giving the community the warm and fuzzies ... wonder whats up?
Quoting 112. PedleyCA:

Really? 90-111 seem missing. OMG what a Mess. POOF!!!!


Wow, hopefully WU gets a handle on this before things go downhill even more.


Feels great in FL.
Hi folks - We are aware of the issue happening with some of the blog comments disappearing here on Jeff's blog, and are in the process of investigating the cause. We'll get it fixed as soon as we possibly can!
The plusses for Doc's blog entry have also almost disappeared.
This has been happening for 3-4 Days now.
Made it to 90.7F here today....
California Gov. Jerry Brown Orders Aggressive Greenhouse Gas Cuts By 2030
Posted: 04/29/2015 11:39 am EDT Updated: 39 minutes ago


California Gov. Jerry Brown issued an executive order Wednesday directing the state to cut is greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, the toughest proposed cuts of any state in the nation.

The 2030 target will ensure that California can meet its emissions target for the middle of this century, which calls for an 80 percent cut by 2050, Brown said. The state is already on pace to meet its goal of bringing heat-trapping emissions down to 1990 levels by 2020, a target set under a 2006 state law.

"With this order, California sets a very high bar for itself and other states and nations, but it's one that must be reached -- for this generation and generations to come," said Brown in a statement Wednesday morning.

Brown noted that the target puts California in line with the European Union, which has also committed to a 40 percent reduction by 2030.

The governor's office also said the target would put the state on track to reduce its own emissions to the level that nations around the world will need to meet to limit global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, "the warming threshold at which scientists say there will likely be major climate disruptions such as super droughts and rising sea levels."

The cuts are more aggressive than the federal targets that the Obama administration has outlined, which call for reducing emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. (Emissions levels were lower in 1990 than in 2005.)

Brown's executive order identified specific climate impacts to California, noting that the state is already seeing "loss of snowpack, drought, sea level rise, more frequent and intense wildfires, heat waves, more severe smog, and harm to natural and working lands."

"Governor Brown’s announcement demonstrates that California leaders can continue to set the pace for the rest of the world when it comes to tackling the urgent climate crisis and stepping up efforts to adapt to its already-harmful effects,” said Lauren Faber, West Coast political director at the Environmental Defense Fund, in a statement.
Awesome day here in southern Manitoba, reached 27C or 80F and no clouds till this evening. Now off for some sturgeon fishing...
Republicans take aim at Obama's 2016 NASA spending plan for climate change research.

The House committee charged with authorizing NASA spending took aim at a key Obama administration priority Thursday with a party line vote slashing spending on Earth science - the missions that study issues such as global climate change. Protected and expanded were NASA's development of a big new deep-space rocket and missions to other planets.

Republicans on the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, including bill co-sponsor Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), said the measure "restores balance." Democrats and NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said the bill "guts" critical science missions to understand the climate and threatens NASA's broad support on Capitol Hill.

The vote today is just one step in a congressional process of approval for NASA spending. It authorizes spending levels for FY 2016 and FY 2017 but does not appropriate any money to fund those authorizations.


Link
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
Hi folks - We are aware of the issue happening with some of the blog comments disappearing here on Jeff's blog, and are in the process of investigating the cause. We'll get it fixed as soon as we possibly can!

Go back to Classic WU, that'll solve everything....
Quoting 123. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That gif is going to give someone a seizure, lol.

You can say that aojifw {thump!}

Well, at least it's cool and dry enough to open the windows here in Cent. FL tonight. Almost makes up for the seizure.
Quoting 15. Sfloridacat5:



Lake O area seems to be an area that produces a lot of severe weather.
They had some large hail, confirmed tornado, many reports of funnel clouds (different day than the tornado), and straight lined winds over 60 mph with the storms in that area earlier this week.

All we got here in Fort Myers is some thunder and an inch of rain. None of the storms were even close to being severe.
Oh and I've mentioned this before. It has only hailed one time(pea size) in over 20 years at my location just S.E. of Fort Myers.
In contrast, Orlando suffered two devastating hailstorms in a row in March 1992. I didn't witness them but I remember a lot of people driving cars around with replaced windshields, plastic over their windows, and car bodies looking as if beaten by ball pein hammers all over.

The first storm was March 6th and the second even more destructive was March 25th. NWS Melbourne keeps a web-page on these storms.
P.S. Link to Orlando Sentinel Story: Central Florida Checks Damage Hail of a storm Hailstorm Costs: $60 Million And Heartache"
Thanks for your response Storms306, whitewabit & sar2401 " If you have the exact time the images were taken along with the lat/long, or at least a reasonably precise location on the map, we could match it up with radar and see if there was a tornado anywhere in the vicinity."
-----------------------

The cloud that is jagged was taken at 8:38 5 miles east of Ponchatoula La. The one that looks more like mamm clouds was taken around 11:30 and the gif was made around 11:47

There was a thunderstorm sighted just a few miles west of Ponchatoula in springfield. Here was the red banner warning from WU:
WU has this in my banner
at 953 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located
near Springfield... or 13 miles southwest of Hammond... and moving
east at 60 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Hammond... Ponchatoula... Springfield... Robert and Killian.


might be some flooding, and lots of drought relief in Texas during the next two weeks

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE QUANG, CATEGORY THREE (21U)
8:45 AM WST May 1 2015
====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang, Category Three (974 hPa) located at 20.5S 112.1E or 265 kilometers northwest of Exmouth and 340 kilometers north northwest of Coral Bay has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W2.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang continues to move towards the Exmouth area and is expected to cross the coast late tonight or early on Saturday morning. Quang has moved into an unfavorable environment and is now rapidly weakening. The system is forecast to weaken below cyclone intensity just after crossing the coast.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Onslow and Coral Bay late Friday morning or early on Friday afternoon. GALES may extend to Mardie if the system takes a more easterly track and to Carnarvon if the system tracks further south. There remains a slight risk of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS at North West Cape and surrounding areas this evening if Quang maintains category 2 intensity close to the coast.

People along the coast between Onslow and Coral Bay and warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE late this evening. Tides may rise above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Gascoyne and western Pilbara over the weekend as the remnants of Quang tracks southeast over land.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 22.1S 113.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1) west of Exmouth
24 HRS 23.4S 114.5E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
=======================
Severe Tropical Quang continues to weaken. Location was based on persistence, enhanced infrared and microwave imagery.

Dvorak analysis: Embedded center has yielded DTs of between 5.0 and 4.0 over the last 6 hours [embedded in White, Black and more recently Dark Grey]. Trend was W+. FT [biased towards PAT] was 4.0 and CI was 4.5. Intensity set to 70 knots [10 minute mean wind]. There has been no recent SATCON. This is in good agreement with ADT.

Quang continues to move in a south east direction under the influence of an upper level trough. Wind shear over the system has increased with CIMSS shear at 1800 UTC northwest about 40 knots. Models indicate this will increase further and so the system will weaken further over the next 24 hours as it approaches the North West Cape of Western Australia. Some models indicate rapid weakening to below cyclone strength while other models indicate the system could impact the West Australian coast as a cyclone. Given it's current location and strength it is likely that Quang will be a category one system as it reaches the coast, and there is a slight chance it could still be a category two system.

In the longer term the remains of the system should weaken quickly and move southeast overland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for coastal from Mardie to Carnavon and adjacent inland parts
130. yoboi
Quoting 127. llpj04:

Thanks for your response Storms306, whitewabit & sar2401 " If you have the exact time the images were taken along with the lat/long, or at least a reasonably precise location on the map, we could match it up with radar and see if there was a tornado anywhere in the vicinity."
-----------------------

The cloud that is jagged was taken at 8:38 5 miles east of Ponchatoula La. The one that looks more like mamm clouds was taken around 11:30 and the gif was made around 11:47

There was a thunderstorm sighted just a few miles west of Ponchatoula in springfield. Here was the red banner warning from WU:
WU has this in my banner
at 953 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located
near Springfield... or 13 miles southwest of Hammond... and moving
east at 60 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Hammond... Ponchatoula... Springfield... Robert and Killian.


You can go back and look at radar history on here....
Quoting 80. DocNDswamp:



Appears could possibly been a brief funnel in top photo - along with confirmed tornadoes, a lot of 'em were reported that day across SE LA. But Wabit makes a good point too, as seems could been both scud and / or a funnel. Actually had that photo been the animated gif might could determine somewhat better. Good capture tho!

And as Storms306 mentioned perhaps see if correlates with radar imagery at the time, even though such small scale funnel activity was popping up / fading so quick, radar might not be conclusive either. Also agree, take the NWS StormWarn class when you get a chance, very informative for wx observers of all ages and experience.


thanks I looked at the radar history on wu but you cant pause it and it flashes by too fast.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united- states/la/new-orleans/lix/history/?date=2015-04-27
Quoting 120. Frasersgrove:

Awesome day here in southern Manitoba, reached 27C or 80F and no clouds till this evening. Now off for some sturgeon fishing...
WOW!!! We have a blogger from S Manitoba!!!! How cool is DAT ?!?!?!

Hope the fishing is good ... hasn't been the best fishing wx here ....
Sam Johnson introduces bill to gut EPA climate change efforts

WASHINGTON-A Texas congressman has introduced a bill that would eliminate funding for most of President Obama’s signature environmental initiatives, and do away with several programs within the Environmental Protection Agency altogether.

Rep. Sam Johnson, R-Plano, says if enacted his bill would save taxpayers $7.5 billion a year. It would gut most of the Obama Administration’s efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants and industrial smokestacks. Those initiatives have proven among the president’s least popular among business leaders, and Republicans and industry alike have fought them in court and through legislation.

So far, however, they’ve remained largely in tact — and undoing the EPA’s work on climate change has been a key priority of the Republican controlled Congress. This bill represents a more sweeping response than may had expected. It faces almost certain veto prospects and tough odds in both the Senate and full House.


Link

Euro wow. That's Ana alright.
135. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
OMG please


jejeje
Weather across the United States is as quiet as you'll ever see it.

Cody, Trent also said that last night. Are there any observation points in the lower 48 reporting precipitation?
Rain total for April 2015 : 1 inch, or about 40% of average.

February and march were no better. January was near average.

guygee I wonder how much rainfall equivalent was in those hailstorms.
As if the lack of rain wasn't enough... an intense SAL event occured earlier this week.

2015, yeah such a nice year so far (weather wise)!
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody, Trent also said that last night. Are there any observation points in the lower 48 reporting precipitation?

An upper-level low is delivering rain across the Mid-Atlantic, there's some shower activity across extreme southern Florida, and a cold front is producing some rain across the North Plains. Nothing of significance.
I'm really sick of the Heartland Inst. buying ad space at the top of these pages . The "Willie Soon is great thinker", was one thing. The attack on the Pope is another.

Don't have a Community Standards Policy for comments and take money from some of the most greedy vile people in modern American.
Quoting 140. BaltimoreBrian:

guygee I wonder how much rainfall equivalent was in those hailstorms.
I recall there were isolated reports of 1-2 foot accumulations of hail, and torrential rains on top of that. Given those reports some areas getting 10"-20" water equivalent seems reasonable, although it wasn't widespread.
(hoping this post doesn't get deleted.)

00z GFS is coming in holding strong with the idea of some sort of low developing next week, a little closer to the coast this time around.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE QUANG, CATEGORY TWO (21U)
11:42 AM WST May 1 2015
====================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Quang, Category Two located at 20.9S 113.2E or 150 kilometers northwest of Exmouth and 255 kilometers north northwest of Coral Bay has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Quang continues to move towards the Exmouth area. Gales are being experienced on North West Cape and are expected in exposed coastal parts of the west Pilbara during the afternoon. Quang is moving into a very unfavorable environment. It is expected to rapidly weaken as it approaches the coast and to weaken below cyclone intensity as soon as it crosses the coast.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are occurring on the North west Cape and are expected to extend to other coastal areas between Onslow and Coral Bay during Friday afternoon. GALES may extend to Mardie if the system takes a more easterly track and to Carnarvon if the system tracks further south.

People along the coast between Onslow and Coral Bay and warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE late this evening. Tides may rise above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Gascoyne and western Pilbara over the weekend as the remnants of Quang tracks southeast over land. Flood Watches have been issued for the Gascoyne and West Pilbara districts.

Please refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for latest details

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for coastal areas from Mardie to Carnavon and adjacent inland parts
Gravity data show that Antarctic ice sheet is melting increasingly faster



not much longer until landfall.. good thing it's weakening.
Quoting 125. Misanthroptimist:


You can say that aojifw {thump!}

Well, at least it's cool and dry enough to open the windows here in Cent. FL tonight. Almost makes up for the seizure.


It is beautiful here tonight. I always forget how refreshing the coolness feels until we haven't had it in a while. Windows open.
153. vis0
My 22 cents...adjusted to today's economy (darm!)...i owe you a nickle.
Where is the AtmosStream? or even ENSO-e Energy being focused the most?

In the Atlantic? (use artistic license in title, apology to Italian/Italiam Americans if its deemed as offensive)
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: On AniGif

Notice that mother ship LOW stretching out as if it were some pizza doe and Mama Italiana with her strong yet sxy forearms are stretching out some pizza doe that in most cases would make a 4 slice pizza, but in Mama's case, into a delicious healthy mouthwatering 12 slice pizza.

As to the Low how come its so stretched out?

Maybe something is attracting the inner cog wheel low back towards the NE of the USofA (retrograding)
while one of the strong southern jet stream flows is side swiping that retrograding LOw's southern quad moisture plumes and stretching it out eastward therefore allowing TWO inputs of moisture to feed this long AtmosRiver.

1) Moisture from LOWs coming down then eastward from Canada
2) Tropical moisture coming from ENSO via GoMx and STS's rain making sauna.

Now will the plumes continue towards Europe as one long stream or will it be forced to split AND even if it splits will there be so much moisture rich clouds being squeezed that flooding will ocur over 2 regions.

That will have to wait for barbamz to report and since i did mention food (pizza) maybe all three points of focused moisture areas which happens to have wxu members that present images images of their FAV FOOD can do so. Lets see barbamz can send images of certain German dishes, washi115 some Lobster images & Labonbon classic Creole cooking....Chicklet will be happy as barbamz sends sausage links but all Chicklet hears is links as in Golf Links...TIMBER!!! (most say FOUR!, i say timber after i swing....followed by an immediate i'm sorry.

Sincerely,
Dom Deluise ( ; - ) ....kidding)


BTW that comment#22 (of this blogbyte) by Webberweather53, TO ME is very much on the point. (apology to Webberweather53 for placing him in the same breath as a vis0 caah-razy cmmnt)
My thoughts are since all of the biosphere influences whats going on within a complex planet (as Earth v2.0 is) what i call the Magmasphere (no!, not Mambosphere that forms when we celebrate Festavus) has its influence via every event above it in 45 degree areas (why 45 degree, too long to re-post it might still be on my blog, has to do with how certain resonance vibrate spheres within a complex universe and each vibration is limited to 45 degree areas within a sphere as to 7+1/2, 1/2 colurs...its being discovered as to the human brain...in time things above as it is below.), hence my words "45 degree areas of weather trend influence".
The Polar affects of what i call 45 degree areas of weather trend influence trumps Equatorial 45 degrees area of weather trend influence (as ENSO...though ENSO TO ME is actually 3 or 4 "45 degree areas of weather trend influence" that when act in unison create ||Los Niños Cachoros del tiempo◄sp|en►The Misbehaving kids of weather|| on the Physical Dimension by 2 to 1.
Therefore its more likely that the weather of areas that are situated more the towards the polar sides of the 2 "Tropics lines" (Ca. is north of Tropic of Cancer) will be more influenced by their 45 degree areas Weather trend that comes from the Polar regions, unless the Equatorial 45 degrees area of weather trend influence is in its upper third's third in strength...too confusing? come back in 200 yrs it'll be in the college books as a new discovery or go back and .

Please read comment#22 for a more down to Earth explanation.

....stay tuned for the news (unless BB's posted it already) that climate change might threaten one in six species with extinction ...you go Mama Nana...gulp
Since I installed my rain gauge at the beginning of September here at my apartment, Ive had 46.9 inches of rain from then through April now. A total of 46.9 in 8 months is pretty impressive considering that doesn't include the 3 rainiest months here on average, June July, and August. If we stayed on a similar pace, we'd be around 70 inches by September if just hit the rest of the monthly averages.

Unfortunately since I'm heading back to the Tampa Bay area for the summer, and since my rain gauge is a COCORAHS gauge, not an automated one, I won't be taking any observations again here at my apartment until late August when I return to school.
Today was officially my last final exam of the semester, and I'll be heading back to Tampa Bay on Sunday, so my primary rainfall and local storm report will be based on the rain gauge and weather station at my parents house where I live when not at school.
155. vanwx
Someone a while ago ask about Gulf stream speeds/ ThermoHaline Cycle rates and I found this by accident today while looking at paleontology being done where there used to be glaciers. Essentially, Greenland fresh water melt is choking the cold saline that should be driving the cycle. Link
Quoting 126. guygee:

In contrast, Orlando suffered two devastating hailstorms in a row in March 1992. I didn't witness them but I remember a lot of people driving cars around with replaced windshields, plastic over their windows, and car bodies looking as if beaten by ball pein hammers all over.

The first storm was March 6th and the second even more destructive was March 25th. NWS Melbourne keeps a web-page on these storms.
P.S. Link to Orlando Sentinel Story: Central Florida Checks Damage Hail of a storm Hailstorm Costs: $60 Million And Heartache"


I don't think people realize that the I-4 corridor in Central Florida receives an awful lot of severe thunderstorms. Sure there usually aren't moderate risks that make blog titles, but smaller scale severe weather events are quite common, such that severe thunderstorms are quite common, and contrary to popular belief, they aren't always just barely severe pulse thunderstorms either. The article you posted is just one example, but look up youtube videos of severe thunderstorms in Tampa, Lakeland, or Orlando, and you'll find a lot of footage of very impressive thunderstorm footage, sometimes severe winds that could easily be confused with hurricane footage if one didn't know any better.

We have family from Missouri that came to Orlando and vacation in late March 2011 and we had a severe squall line blow through Central Florida and parts of Orlando had hurricane force wind gusts, they said they were terrified and were completely shocked that had that level of severe thunderstorms in the spring dry season.
Quoting 122. ColoradoBob1:

Republicans take aim at Obama's 2016 NASA spending plan for climate change research.

The House committee charged with authorizing NASA spending took aim at a key Obama administration priority Thursday with a party line vote slashing spending on Earth science - the missions that study issues such as global climate change. Protected and expanded were NASA's development of a big new deep-space rocket and missions to other planets.

Republicans on the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, including bill co-sponsor Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), said the measure "restores balance." Democrats and NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said the bill "guts" critical science missions to understand the climate and threatens NASA's broad support on Capitol Hill.

The vote today is just one step in a congressional process of approval for NASA spending. It authorizes spending levels for FY 2016 and FY 2017 but does not appropriate any money to fund those authorizations.


Link


As a Republican, I'm embarrassed what represents a republican in office in most cases now. Enough with this paranoid anti science garbage in the republican party. What the heck happened to Republicans, lol.
158. vis0

Quoting 137. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* Biggest Coal Exporter Says Climate Change Won't Strand Assets

Climate change risk to 'one in six species'

Global warming slowdown offers only fleeting relief

!!! Gravity data show that Antarctic ice sheet is melting increasingly faster




* England set for 'substantial increase' in record-breaking warm years


Tropical marine ecosystems most at threat from human impact


* New origin theory for cells that gave rise to vertebrates


!!! 'Dead zones' found in Atlantic open waters: Moving west, could lead to mass fish kills


Engineering a better solar cell: Defects in popular perovskites pinpointed



*** Beyond genes: Are centrioles carriers of biological information?


Dull forest glow yields orbital tracking of photosynthesis

Church of England divests from coal, tar sands as adopts new climate policy

* California water plan has less money for environmental restoration


NASA spacecraft makes crashing finale into Mercury

* Why Tesla's announcement could be such a big deal: The coming revolution in energy storage


Engineering Earth: Altering the sky to cool the planet
DISCLAIMER:: The following Animated GIF has some surprises
PLEASE PUT DOWN ANYTHING that might be
used to swat the screen ITS NOT REAL.
ALSO do not play till after everyone is awake.
WXU nor BB nor i (Grothar  : -P     ..okay vis0) is responsible
        & nbsp;       &nb sp;  for any damages or lost sleep.
ANALOGY (no wunderkidcaymen not Ana) by cooking  MAC n Cheese to show the difference between
"slow" 1000 yr(s) GW versus  lets go visit the Tropical Paradise of Alaska in 300 yrs, IF were still able to
warming
   DID YOU READ THE DISCLAIMER!!!! (barbamz go to sleep!)


Quoting 131. llpj04:


thanks I looked at the radar history on wu but you cant pause it and it flashes by too fast.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united- states/la/new-orleans/lix/history/?date=2015-04-27


Another radar archive source is Plymouth State's site. Type LIX in the ID box, you can also center the image at Pontchatoula's coordinates 30.44,-90.44 select date / time, i.e. 1338Z (for 0838 CDT) and set the zoom if prefer. You can choose single image or 21 frame gif. The resolution is rather coarse, but usable.

That said, radar shows the line of severe convection was still far to the west at the time of your 1st photo. So nope, no funnel though it sort of resembles one in that static image, likely just fractus / scud clouds shaped by winds.

Quoting 161. tampabaymatt:


Good morning all. Rain, albeit light, continues over New Providence this morning. I'm leaving home in a couple minutes because morning rush hour traffic on wet Nassau streets is enough to give a person a headache.... and it's FRIday, the anti-headache day .... lol ...

Florida looks pretty dry now, so I'm expecting that 12 hours from now we'll be just about clear of the wx ....

Have a fantastic Friday!
163. ackee
Quoting 147. CybrTeddy:

(hoping this post doesn't get deleted.)

00z GFS is coming in holding strong with the idea of some sort of low developing next week, a little closer to the coast this time around.

which web site can I see this Gfs run thanks in advance
59 degrees this morning here just S.E. of Fort Myers.
It got down to 61 degrees in the city.
Bright sunshine and expected highs in the low to mid 80s but with low humidity.
166. MahFL
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:

59 degrees this morning here just S.E. of Fort Myers.


59F in Orange Park too.
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



As a Republican, I'm embarrassed what represents a republican in office in most cases now. Enough with this paranoid anti science garbage in the republican party. What the heck happened to Republicans, lol.


Interesting summary of a scientific study in today's Science Daily showing "Dwindling productivity in Congress linked to vanishing cooperation" Link

Here's a GFS phase map on our potential system next week. Certainly a warm enough core for subtropical classification. Other models are similar. Interesting setup at least; this is exactly how these types of developments happen. Fairly strong high to the north to block the system, giving it time to develop. Shear is forecast to relax, plus these subtropical systems are able to deal with a little more shear than a purely tropical storm. And the well above normal SSTs in the region will help as well. Wouldn't be a big deal if it happened in terms of impact, but it'd be pretty cool to see.

Snipped from the Miami NWS Disco...


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...REMNANT FRONT OVER FLORIDA STRAITS
LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT...CAUSING MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THE
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DEVELOP THE FEATURE FARTHER N/E THAN PRIOR
RUNS...AND TO KEEP THE SYSTEM TRACKING NE AFTER FORMATION.
THUS...OVERALL POP FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...AS IF LOW IS
STRONG ENOUGH/EAST ENOUGH...DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW COLD RESULT. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE WET FORECAST...MENTIONING HEAVY RNFL
PTNL IN HWO. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. BEST HVY RN/FLOOD POTENTIAL CURRENTLY PROJECTED
TO BE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY/EXTREME SE FL. THUNDER APPEARS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING...BUT LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES IN EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.
Next weekend
171. MahFL
JAX NWS seems a bit excitable this am :

"GFS HAS THE SYSTEM VIRTUALLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND!"

Note the !.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
012000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
352 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN TYPE STREET
FLOODING.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC QUANG (21U)
7:48 PM WST May 1 2015
====================================

At 7:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Quang [1000 hPa) located at 22.2S 114.8E or 75 kilometers east southeast of Exmouth and 75 kilometers south southwest of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Quang has made landfall near the eastern coast of the Exmouth Gulf, approximately 60 kilometers southwest of Onslow, and has weakened below cyclone intensity. Although the system has been downgraded, there is still the possibility of damaging winds and heavy rainfall due to heavy showers or thunderstorms associated with rain bands on the periphery of the low.

Wind and rain are expected to ease further throughout the western Pilbara and Gascoyne regions overnight and during Saturday.

Now that Ex-Tropical Cyclone Quang has crossed the coast, a significant storm tide is no longer expected.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to ease further over parts of the Gascoyne and western Pilbara overnight and during Saturday. Flood Watches and Warnings are current for areas of the west Pilbara and the Gascoyne.

Please refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for latest details.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 23.9S 115.8E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================
Quang crossed the Pilbara coastline to the east of Exmouth at around 1100UTC (May 1). The system has been located during the day by radar and visible imagery. Dvorak analysis performed during the day indicated rapid weakening. An embedded and sheared pattern were applied to obtain initial DTs of 5 which have decreased to 1.5 over the last few hours. ADT has showed a similar weakening trend.

The system weakened rapidly over the last 24 hours under strong NW shear. The upper circulation was steered rapidly to the southeast and is now located well away from an exposed surface circulation. The system has now weakened to below cyclone strength and no further warnings will be issued.

The remains of the system will drift inland and weaken over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for coastal areas from Exmouth to Onslow has been CANCELLED..

This will be the final tropical cyclone advice on QUANG from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth..
174. yoboi
I find it interesting what Marty Hoerling of NOAA had to say about the current California drought....

This drought has many of the attributes of past historical droughts over the region — widespread lack of storms and rainfall that would normally enter the region from the Pacific with considerable frequency. It resembles the 1975-76 and 1976-77 California droughts, when two consecutive years were at least as dry as the last two years have been for the state as a whole.

The bottom line is that this type of drought has been observed before. And, to state the obvious, this drought has occurred principally due to a lack of rains, not principally due to warmer temperatures.

Link
Extreme rainfall event in Queensland, Australia, with 11" of rain falling in just three hours.

Link
Quoting 174. yoboi:

I find it interesting what Marty Hoerling of NOAA had to say about the current California drought....

This drought has many of the attributes of past historical droughts over the region — widespread lack of storms and rainfall that would normally enter the region from the Pacific with considerable frequency. It resembles the 1975-76 and 1976-77 California droughts, when two consecutive years were at least as dry as the last two years have been for the state as a whole.

The bottom line is that this type of drought has been observed before. And, to state the obvious, this drought has occurred principally due to a lack of rains, not principally due to warmer temperatures.

Link

I have no problem with this. Totally not. Let the US Southwest be suprised and defenceless and descend into water wars like the Levant when hyperdroughts became superimposed over the trend of -40% annual precip since 1950 and the regime fired at the victims. Same with Sao Paulo.

Nice cherry pick from that documentation mate. Well done, but WUWT would've been easier no?
For those interested in keeping classic.wunderground.com instead of scrapping it, here is the Facebook page. Show your support by liking it.. the more likes, the better the chances are that classic stays! We have only 3 days left!!

Link
Hailstorm sweeps through eastern China
BBC weather video, 30 April 2015 Last updated at 20:13
A huge storm system swept through eastern provinces, bringing down trees and severely damaging large swathes of vital fruit and vegetable crops. Helen Willetts has the details.
May 8 gfs...

May 6 CMC;
as suspected the clusters of rain evaporated as they reached our shores....just high overcast mostly....
a shame
this was our best chance for May
It will take a massive shift in the upper level environment and a cessation of the Saharan dust before we see any relief....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 179. Torito:

May 8...


Hey! Long time no see, how are you doing? Yes, we could be see our first storm of the season in the coming days.
CMC May 7.. DOOM, as always..

wow after this sliver of a hope it looks like we are in another extremely hot and dry period....
this part of the caribbean is changing
I remember when I was kid here it would rain for days on end and almost always a splash or two during the dry season....we are very close to an arid environment but even with what should be a rain event we can still see haze on the horizon...
Quoting 184. Torito:

CMC May 7.. DOOM, as always..





Wow, the CMC's aggressive!
Quoting 162. BahaHurican:

Good morning all. Rain, albeit light, continues over New Providence this morning. I'm leaving home in a couple minutes because morning rush hour traffic on wet Nassau streets is enough to give a person a headache.... and it's FRIday, the anti-headache day .... lol ...

Florida looks pretty dry now, so I'm expecting that 12 hours from now we'll be just about clear of the wx ....

Have a fantastic Friday!


At least you don't have to deal with frozen precip