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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Massive Tornadic Storm Just Misses Dallas; Extreme Heat in South Florida, Cuba

By: Bob Henson 12:09 PM GMT on April 27, 2015

Near-record atmospheric moisture for late April teamed up with an extremely strong jet stream to produce a fearsome night of severe weather over north Texas, mainly south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The most intense storms of the day developed by early afternoon southeast of Abilene, with one large supercell emerging at the south end of the complex. After producing several brief tornadoes and hail as large as softballs from a giant stacked-plate circulation, the storm grew even larger and more threatening after dark as it moved just south of the DFW area. Slowing and reoganizing, it dumped more than 5” of rain on some areas, according to Doppler radar estimates. At one point, there were three potentially tornadic circulations evident on Doppler radar along the storm’s south edge, a pattern eerily reminiscent of the deadly storm on May 30, 2013, that killed several storm chasers near El Reno, Oklahoma. Soon after midnight, the circulations congealed into a powerful comma-shaped bow echo that swept across the prairie with high winds (see Figure 1). Nineteen preliminary tornado reports were logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Texas on Sunday.


Figure 1. National Weather Service radar imagery from 11:55 pm CDT Sunday, April 26 (left) and 12:55 am CDT Monday, April 27 (right) shows the dramatic evolution of the storm complex south of Fort Worth into a bow echo (right), with a “bookend” circulation evident on its north end. Here's an animation from NCAR showing the storm's evolution on radar. Image credit: Weather Underground Storm.

Sunday night’s storm would have been far more destructive had its track been just one county north, across Fort Worth and Dallas. Just two nights earlier, parts of the Fort Worth area were racked by a powerful downburst that brought winds estimated at 80 – 85 mph. That storm went on to produce high winds all the way to Mississippi, with three brief EF1 tornadoes reported there. Another storm complex produced an even more extensive swath of high wind on Saturday, stretching nearly 500 miles from southeast Louisiana to the Georgia coast. Also on Saturday, hail up to baseball size pounded central Kentucky, with a short-lived EF2 tornado reported northwest of the town of Brownsville.


Figure 2. A hazy sunset on Saturday night, April 26, served as a prelude to Miami’s record heat on Sunday. Upper-air analyses carried out by the National Weather Service traced a smoke layer that lay a few thousand feet above the city on Saturday back to its origin several days earlier above fires on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: NWS/Miami.

Heat wave blasts April records in South Florida and Cuba
The spring of 2015, already one of the warmest on record across southeast Florida, turned it up a notch on Sunday, as residents baked in heat that would be unusual even in midsummer. Fort Lauderdale International Airport broke its all-time April heat record with 96°F, while Miami tied its April record with the same reading. Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport sizzled at 99°F; this was just 1° short of the city’s all-time any month record of 100° achieved on Aug. 4, 1944 (records date back to 1912 in the city.) In addition, one preliminary report of 100°F came in from the Boca Raton area. The day’s heat was not only intense but persistent: Miami hit 96°F at 1:27 pm and stayed above 90°F for eight torrid hours. Strong westerly winds kept the typical afternoon cooling from the sea breeze at bay.


Figure 3. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor issued on April 23 showed an area of severe drought (orange) across far south Florida that had grown fivefold in size from the previous week. Image credit: National Drought Mitigation Center.

The heat may have also gotten a boost from parched ground across far southern Florida, where drought conditions have intensified rapidly in the last several weeks (see Figure 3). Dry ground heats up more readily than moist ground in full-sun conditions, and Sunday’s westerly winds swept across the drought area en route to the big east-coast cities. Miami is coming off its second-warmest March on record, and April is currently running at the warmest pace on record (80.4°F). Even with slightly less brutal temperatures on tap this week, April should end up toppling the monthly record of 80.1°F set in 2011.

The heat has been even more impressive in nearby Cuba, where Havana set its all-time temperature record on Sunday with a sizzling 37.0°C (98.6°F). The day also brought the second-highest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Cuba: 38.7°C (101.6°F), at Holguin. These data were provided courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. He notes that these records are all the more impressive since July and August are usually the hottest months in Cuba.

Bob Henson



Storm skies over Grapevine, TX
Storm skies over Grapevine, TX
Just a small indication of weather to come. This was taken at 3:30pm. Severe weather is on its way in to Grapevine for the evening. Texas has cool thunderstorms!
Anvil Crawler
Anvil Crawler
Touchdown
Touchdown
Spider lightning from my balcony in Austin, early Saturday morning.
mammatus clouds
mammatus clouds

Tornado Severe Weather Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new blog

Tornado from last night.

Maria Molina @FoxMariaMolina · 8h 8 hours ago
Violent nighttime #tornado just NE of Rio Vista!
TORNADO WARNING
LAC115-271230-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0009.150427T1207Z-150427T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 707 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LEESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEESVILLE...ANACOCO...SLAGLE...FORT POLK...NEW LLANO AND KURTHWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Yesterday after it rained for like 5 seconds around 2pm the temps after was 84 with a dewpoint of 81. That is the highest dewpoint value I have ever seen in April. Also temps at night have been near 80 for lows recently also the highest I have ever seen for April.

I knew after the non Winter we had that it was going to turn hot fast come Spring and it did here in FL.

Thanks for the new entry!

From the last blog, as those quick and unexpected cyclonic developments like in Texas last night seem to be the pattern of the season elsewhere too:

Another deadly cyclone-like weather event (see below IR image, southeast of Kabul):

Freak storm kills 45 in Pakistan
Source: Reuters - Mon, 27 Apr 2015 08:25 GMT, By Jibran Ahmad
PESHAWAR, Pakistan, April 27 (Reuters) - A freak "mini-cyclone" tore roofs of buildings and brought down trees and power poles in Pakistan, killing 45 people and injuring more than 200, officials said on Monday.
Army teams were on their way to the area of Peshawar city to help with the rescue, a military spokesman said.
"We've never experienced such a devastating wind storm before in this region," said Mushtaq Shah, director general of the Meteorological Office in Peshawar.
"Its speed in the open was more than 120 kph (75 mph) and that's what caused destruction on such a large scale. It's a completely new phenomenon in this region." ...



Source with loop.

Remember the one in Bihar/India last week?
Congress for declaring cyclonic storm in Bihar a national calamity
By PTI | 27 Apr, 2015, 04.51PM IST
CPC updated Nino values for April 27th

Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.0ºC
Niño 3=+1.0ºC
Niño1+2=+1.5ºC
Quoting 3. LAbonbon:




seems like everyday around here...
Quoting 5. barbamz:

Thanks for the new entry!

From the last blog, as those quick and unexpected cyclonic developments like in Texas


They were forecast to occur 3 days in advance, they were not unexpected.
Warm pool is stronger compared to this time last year. Difference between last year and this year is last year as the warm pool surfaced it shrunk in size, this year as it is surfacing it is growing in size. Also CFSv2 & Euro is forecasting the strongest El-Nino ever recorded.



We have a moderate El Niño now!!! Huh Scott?
Quoting 9. MahFL:

They were forecast to occur 3 days in advance, they were not unexpected.

Yes, but this sudden complicating twist (see blog entry)?

Click to enlarge.

And what's about the Alabama Dauphin Island Regatta storm which hit the sailors by surprise in its violence?

The latest:

The story behind the viral YouTube video of the stormy Dauphin Island Regatta

Captain of all-female crew aboard sailboat in race: 'It was like being in a blender'

Dauphin Island Regatta: What we know Monday morning
Quoting 11. Andrebrooks:

We have a moderate El Niño now!!! Huh Scott?


It's looking like we are in Moderate El-Nino territory. Although not official on the ONI as of yet. Also there are some very strong WWB being forecast for May which then should propel us to strong thresholds by July.
While not nearly as hot as the East Coast, Naples was nonetheless pretty miserable yesterday. The temperature here has now been above normal 55 of the past 60 days, including every day so far this month. And today doesn't look to be much more comfortable here:

FLUS42 KMFL 270735
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...BRINGING THREATS OF FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND: STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH CANT
BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS.

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES OVER THE EVERGLADES WILL EXCEED 100
DEGREES TODAY.
Quoting 7. yoboi:



seems like everyday around here...

Was hoping it would have died down some before it got here...but that's not looking too likely.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LAZ034>036-046>049-056-MSZ068-069-271400-
WEST BATON ROUGE-ASSUMPTION-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-EAST
FELICIANA-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-AMITE-
756 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY 9 AM CDT...

AT 749 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RUBY TO NEAR MAMOU TO NEAR GRAND CHENIER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...MORGAN CITY...DENHAM SPRINGS...
GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...NEW ROADS...
JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...CLINTON...KROTZ SPRINGS...MELVILLE...
LIBERTY...NAPOLEONVILLE...OAK HILLS PLACE...BELLE RIVER AND ST.
GABRIEL.

THESE STORMS WILL REACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF POINTE
COUPEE...IBERVILLE...WEST FELICIANA PARISHES..AND WILKINSON COUNTY
BY 9 AM. THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA COULD SEE IMPACT AS EARLY AS 10
AM. BE ALERT AND AWARE AS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Good Morning. An impressive line of t-storms heading across LA at the moment headed toward New Orleans:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector
Here is the SPC watch for today and relative position of the Conus split jet:


And the short-term forecasts from SPC and WPC:


 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREA FROM
PARTS OF N TX SEWD TO THE CNTRL GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREA FROM
THE RED RVR VLY TO THE GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...SUMMARY...
A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHER STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AFTERNOON STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 27 2015 - 12Z Wed Apr 29 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Western Gulf Coast and the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Southern Plains and
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below average over parts of the
Southern High Plains...

A storm over the Southern Plains will move eastward along the Gulf Coast
to Alabama by Tuesday evening. The system will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast and
along the coast to Florida. The showers and thunderstorms will move
eastward with the low to the Eastern Gulf Coast/Southeast by Tuesday
evening. Rain will also develop over parts of the Southern High Plains
that will likewise move eastward to the Tennessee Valley/Southeast by
Tuesday. In addition, snow will develop over some of the higher
elevations over the Central Rockies with rain at the lower elevations
through late Monday night.

A dissipating front over the Upper Midwest will aid in producing rain over
parts of the Central High Plains into the Northern Plains that will move
eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley before ending on Tuesday morning.
Additionally, upper-level closed low near the Northeast will aid in
producing rain over parts of the Northeast through Tuesday evening.
Elsewhere, a front over the Pacific will move eastward to the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday. The system will produce rain along parts of the
Northwest Coast Tuesday through Tuesday evening.

And finally, the current big picture for the Gulf region:

little steamy of recent but at least there is a nice breeze. i remember a blog dedicated to comments on the theory that if south florida is dry following hurricane season can be dangerous. good luck everyone this upcoming hurricane season.
Quoting 16. LAbonbon:


Was hoping it would have died down some before it got here...but that's not looking too likely.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LAZ034>036-046>049-056-MSZ068-069-271400-
WEST BATON ROUGE-ASSUMPTION-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-EAST
FELICIANA-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-AMITE-
756 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY 9 AM CDT...

AT 749 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RUBY TO NEAR MAMOU TO NEAR GRAND CHENIER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...MORGAN CITY...DENHAM SPRINGS...
GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...NEW ROADS...
JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...CLINTON...KROTZ SPRINGS...MELVILLE...
LIBERTY...NAPOLEONVILLE...OAK HILLS PLACE...BELLE RIVER AND ST.
GABRIEL.

THESE STORMS WILL REACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF POINTE
COUPEE...IBERVILLE...WEST FELICIANA PARISHES..AND WILKINSON COUNTY
BY 9 AM. THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA COULD SEE IMPACT AS EARLY AS 10
AM. BE ALERT AND AWARE AS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



Hope it dies down before it get's to your area......winds over 60 mph and lot of rotation....This storm was pretty bad lost some trees....
TORNADO WARNING
LAC077-125-271400-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0008.150427T1336Z-150427T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
836 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 836 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR MELVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...MARINGOUIN...FORDOCHE...MORGANZA AND LOTTIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
Thanks for the blog, Mr. Henson, just a slight correction: the El Reno supercell occurred on May 31, not May 30, 2013.
Quoting 21. islander101010:

little steamy of recent but at least there is a nice breeze. i remember a blog dedicated to comments on the theory that if south florida is dry following hurricane season can be dangerous. good luck everyone this upcoming hurricane season.


Good morning all! If I recall correctly, that theory focuses on the month of May rather than the entire spring season. April normally is still acknowledged as part of the dry season down here in Southeast Florida, so using it as a parameter will not be helpful! In addition, with El Niño seemingly in the works, cooler SST's in the MDR, and what may again be a lack of vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic, we seem to be looking at another quiet season. Yes, we may get some homegrown activity, but I would imagine that even these systems will tend to be weak and short-lived, as wind shear will possibly be high in the region. So, as much ch as I would love to track a storm, especially a fish storm, I believe our opportunities will be slim for this season. Now 2016, that might be a different story...
Quoting 21. islander101010:

little steamy of recent but at least there is a nice breeze. i remember a blog dedicated to comments on the theory that if south florida is dry following hurricane season can be dangerous. good luck everyone this upcoming hurricane season.


Theory is for a Dry May.
Thanks Bob...
TORNADO WARNING
LAC033-037-077-121-125-271415-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0009.150427T1348Z-150427T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
848 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 847 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FORDOCHE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW ROADS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...NEW ROADS...ST. FRANCISVILLE...LIVONIA...
MORGANZA AND ERWINVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
Dallas-Fort Worth got extremely lucky if this haveing too be 50 to 100 miles more N then this could have turn out vary vary bad for them man talk about luck
941  
WGHW50 PHFO 271401  
FFWHFO  
HIC009-271700-  
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.W.0002.150427T1401Z-150427T1700Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
401 AM HST MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY  
 
* UNTIL 700 AM HST  
 
* AT 351 AM HST...A GAGE ON HONOPOU STREAM SHOWED A RAPID RISE  
IN WATER LEVEL TO FLOOD STAGE FROM HEAVY RAIN NEAR HAIKU...OR  
ABOUT 16 MILES EAST OF KAHULUI. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY  
STATIONARY.  
 
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO  
PAUWELA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING  
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.  
 
DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.  
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.  
 
 
 
THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN  
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY.  
 
RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP  
TERRAIN.  
 
THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 700 AM HST IF FLASH  
FLOODING PERSISTS.  
 
LAT...LON 2096 15636 2096 15624 2084 15608 2073 15624  
 
 
 
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The Nexlab HI Page
464  
WFUS54 KLIX 271407  
TORLIX  
LAC033-063-121-271445-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0010.150427T1407Z-150427T1445Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
907 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 945 AM CDT  
 
* AT 907 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  
OVER PORT ALLEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BATON ROUGE...DENHAM SPRINGS...PORT ALLEN...OAK HILLS PLACE...  
WALKER...BRUSLY...INNISWOLD...MERRYDALE...MONTICEL LO...  
SHENANDOAH...OLD JEFFERSON...WESTMINSTER...VILLAGE ST. GEORGE...  
BROWNFIELDS AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR  
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND  
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3053 9129 3055 9085 3034 9088 3034 9092  
3035 9092 3034 9093 3041 9131  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 278DEG 42KT 3048 9123  
 
 
 
MJH  
 
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Quoting 32. Patrap:




You going to go storm chasing this morning??? If so shoot some video it blowing pretty good...
I knew my run of good luck had to end sooner or later. Now under a tornado warning. Looking ominous, winds have picked up.
129  
WUUS54 KLIX 271417  
SVRLIX  
LAC005-033-037-047-063-091-095-105-117-121-125-MS C005-113-157-271500-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0033.150427T1417Z-150427T1500Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
917 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA...  
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT  
 
* AT 917 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND  
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED  
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FELPS TO NORTH VACHERIE...AND  
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BATON ROUGE...HAMMOND...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...  
GONZALES...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...JACKSON...CLINTON...  
GREENSBURG...OAK HILLS PLACE...AMITE...ST. GABRIEL...PONCHATOULA...  
WALKER...AMITE CITY...ADDIS...BRUSLY AND KENTWOOD.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.  
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...  
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...  
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  
 
LAT...LON 3113 9029 3023 9038 3019 9042 3020 9046  
3022 9043 3026 9043 3028 9040 3029 9040  
3030 9043 3031 9042 3034 9048 3030 9054  
3030 9056 3029 9056 3026 9058 3023 9057  
3021 9058 3027 9129 3113 9123  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 259DEG 51KT 3102 9093 2999 9071  
 
 
 
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
735 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-2812 45-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
735 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN AREA COASTAL WATERS...WITH A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...WITH A BOUNDARY
STALLED ALONG THE COAST...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING
TO AREA COASTAL COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY...SPREADING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEAKER
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ALSO...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONDITIONS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
Quoting 40. LargoFl:


All models are showing this too. Ana is that you?
Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation
Range
124 NMI


663  
WFUS54 KLIX 271428  
TORLIX  
LAC005-033-063-271500-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0011.150427T1428Z-150427T1500Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
928 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT  
 
* AT 928 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD  
NEAR OLD JEFFERSON...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DENHAM SPRINGS. A TORNADO  
MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM  
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FRENCH SETTLEMENT...PORT VINCENT...PRAIRIEVILLE...OLD JEFFERSON...  
WHITEHALL AND SHENANDOAH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR  
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND  
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3044 9100 3044 9066 3022 9069 3029 9103  
3031 9102 3032 9102 3032 9103 3033 9103  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 277DEG 42KT 3036 9094  
 
 
 
MJH  
 
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Quoting 41. Andrebrooks:

All models are showing this too. Ana is that you?
going to get interesting by the outer banks huh
Quoting 41. Andrebrooks:

All models are showing this too. Ana is that you





we are not going too get Ana its way too early and we still have vary strong wind shear out there all so this storm is likey going too be cold core not warm core
Pat and Crew (LA) stay safe down there; that line headed into Houma and Orleans is not weakening at all.
Quoting 45. Tazmanian:

Quoting 41. Andrebrooks:

All models are showing this too. Ana is that you





we are not going too get Ana its way too early and we still have vary strong wind shear out there all so this storm is likey going too be cold core not warm core
Ok I see what you mean and coming from.
That cell out in front to my Sw is tracking toward Metairie

If you havent in Kenner, ..do it now.

Isa cycling up.



Moved Jeep into the Downwind side of Hause.


Covered windshield .



Tracking E by Eae....into a Bow echo as well.




Quoting 46. weathermanwannabe:

Pat and Crew (LA) stay safe down there; that line headed into Houma and Orleans is not weakening at all.
What about Hammond,Louisiana.
287  
WUUS54 KLIX 271446  
SVRLIX  
LAC005-007-051-057-089-093-095-109-271515-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0034.150427T1446Z-150427T1515Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
946 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT  
 
* AT 945 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND  
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED  
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF SORRENTO TO NEAR  
CHACKBAY TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF AMELIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HOUMA...THIBODAUX...HAHNVILLE...RESERVE...AVONDALE ...LAROSE...  
METAIRIE...LAPLACE...CUT OFF...JEFFERSON...HARAHAN...GRAMERCY...  
LUTCHER...LOCKPORT...TAFT...BRIDGE CITY...DULAC...CONVENT...NEW  
SARPY AND LULING.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS  
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO  
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL  
INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A VERY  
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND  
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR  
YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHO WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA.  
 
LAT...LON 2952 9120 2960 9107 2967 9110 2986 9086  
3026 9084 3024 9075 3018 9070 3023 9065  
3021 9061 3022 9058 3019 9060 3017 9056  
3019 9042 3011 9043 3007 9039 3002 9015  
2967 9017 2930 9063  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 287DEG 51KT 3017 9075 2984 9077 2957 9111  
 
 
 
32  
 
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Brace, brace, brace in Western Burbs.


Going silent and dark,


Will pop up on the backside.


Out'


thanx bob for the update......second tornado outbreak for texas in just two weeks.......
Good morning guys

Scott still not buying you El nino
And sub surface pool is still same like last year

Also what happen to 3.4 nino NOT falling below 1.0C anytime soon
Using one of your fav charts
Moved Jeep into the Downwind side of Hause.


Covered windshield


pat...i had never thought about that....we had hail thursday night...and while it was small...pea sized up to 3/8 of an inch...coupled with no wind so it was harmless...but my neighbors covered their two cars with blankets...i thoiught that was a smart idea.......i will be prepared in the future
No surprise here (over the last 3 hours) based on the radar loops:

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic
has today is APR 27 i find it odd that this blog is not about the 2011 Superoutbreak or at lest added on i wounder how things are going today after a few years
58. JRRP
I hate this
Quoting 52. ricderr:
thanx bob for the update......second tornado outbreak for texas in just two weeks.......



i think EL nino is playing a big part in the last too outbreaks EL nino is loveing TX i wish it showed some love for CA


but gust will have too wait are turn in the fall


in other news monsoon season out here sould be well above norml all so like too point out t-storm season has started early this year likey other part of EL nino
proponents of a strong el nino....DO NOT READ THIS.........


Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 1h1 hour ago
Worth noting this yr's tri-monthly averaged SOI is trailing ALL moderate-strong 2nd yr Ninos, Strong El Nino unlikely
Quoting 59. JRRP:

do you saw this ?



plzs dont wast your time with him and if your going too : Quote him plzse re move his commits 1st from the : Quote i have him on the ignore list and when you quote him it by pass my ignore



NOTES TOO THE ADMINS AND MODS THE QUOTE NEEDS TOO GO HAS ITS ENTER FEARING WITH THE IGNORE LIST

RE MOVE THE QUOTE!!!!
TWC desperately needs Dr. Greg Forbes on the air when there is severe weather.
Too bad he can't work 24 hours a day.

OK....SO I HAVE TO ASK..........

we have a member with the name of webberweather.......are you one and the same as the twitter feed webberweather....and as such....are you the same mr webb of weatheradvance fame and the author of windows of meteorology?????
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1024 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1023 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR AVONDALE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...HARVEY...MARRERO...TIMBERLANE...
AVONDALE...CHALMETTE...GRETNA...WESTWEGO...JEAN LAFITTE...
TERRYTOWN...MERAUX...ESTELLE...POYDRAS...WOODMERE. ..VIOLET...
ARABI...BARATARIA...BRIDGE CITY AND LULING.
Today is the fourth anniversary of the Tuscaloosa tornado, which was the most devastating tornado ever (in dollar terms) in the US at the time, although it was soon overtaken by the Joplin tornado. From Wiki:

On April 27, 2011, Tuscaloosa was hit by a 1.5 mi (2.4 km) wide EF4 tornado that resulted in 64 deaths, over 1500 injuries, and massive devastation. 44 of the fatalities were in Tuscaloosa alone, with the rest being in Birmingham and surrounding suburbs. Its top winds were estimated by the US National Weather Service at 190 mph (310 km/h). Officials at DCH Regional Medical alone reported treating more than 1000 injured people in the tornado aftermath. Officials reported dozens of unaccompanied minors being admitted for treatment at the hospital, raising questions about the possible loss of their parents. Several were taken to pediatric trauma wards, indicating serious injuries. Referring to the extent and severity of the damage, Mayor Walter Maddox stated that "we have neighborhoods that have been basically removed from the map." The same tornado later went on to cause major damage in the Birmingham area.[15] In all, the cost of damage from the tornado amounted to $2.45 billion, making it, at the time, the costliest tornado in U.S. history, though it would be surpassed less than a month later by the devastating Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22.
Quoting 65. ricderr:

OK....SO I HAVE TO ASK..........

we have a member with the name of webberweather.......are you one and the same as the twitter feed webberweather....and as such....are you the same mr webb of weatheradvance fame and the author of windows of meteorology?????


Judging by the diction, they're the same person.
reading theImpacts Of ENSO On United States Tornadic Activity their findings state that the MAM tornado season in texas drops in half........now texas averages 28 tornadoes in the month of april.....yet we're already at 35 (preliminary) so far this month.....just another oddity for this el nino year
In the context of all the multi-year El Ninos in the "reliable" historical record & in terms of the SOI this year is rather unimpressive. (even though the SOI is a noisy index, I've taken a tri-monthly mean to smooth out the smaller-scale variance w/ a tri-monthly mean (>90 day), exceeding the upper bounds of intraseasonal variability (30-90 days)) We got off to a fast start last year, but we have since fallen off & given that the 30 day SOI is running near -3, our new tri-monthly value is about in the middle of the pack ~ -4.5, only beating out the weak 2nd year El Ninos of 1885-86, 1914-15, 1958-59, & 1977-78, & is of course a good distance behind all of the moderate-strong 2nd year El Ninos of 1899-00, 1905-06, 1940-41 & 1987-88. This evidence alone suggests a moderate event is most likely on the way, & forecasting a strong NINO is probably unreasonable from a historical perspective, esp. considering that the highest ONI value recorded since 1900 in any 2nd year+ El Nino is only +1.6C (1987-88)...
(I circled where we currently stand this year, I'm not very impressed...)


This year's intensification right after the solstice (JFM-FMA) is rather unusual historically speaking & 1987-88 is the most recent event to experience this sort of odd behavior. In fact, this NINO is pretty close to what StormTrackerScott is predicting (strong NINO w/ +1.8C ONI peak, 1987-88's peak was only +1.6, but it's close enough), & is thus is a useful metric for comparison.

We're way behind in most, if not all departments, including but not limited to SLP, OLR, WWBs, SSTs vs the 1986-88 event & things better change in a hurry if we're going to have a legitimate shot @ seeing a strong El Nino...

JFM 1987 vs 2015 Eq Pacific SSTs



JFM 1987 vs 2015 Eq Pacific OLR



JFM 1987 vs 2015 U850 anomalies



JFM 1987 Eq Pacific SLP Anomalies



JFM 2015 Eq Pacific SLP Anomalies (the exact same scaling was used as in the preceding picture)



Even w/ the recent intensification of this EN, we're still trailing 1987-88 by a substantial margin



BTW, I personally think the 1884-86 series provides the best set of analogs to the current set-up.

Using the nearest available 30 year base period (1872-1901), the winter z500 the last few years matches up nicely...

1884-85's semblance to 2013-14 is stunning.




Amazingly, (aside from the proper recognition of the -AMO stint) this set of years was even able to pick up on the development/easterly progression of the anomalously large warm pool ("blob") in the GOA in the preceding winter which has now morphed into the classic +PDO signature w/ a ring of extremely warm water on the west coast of N America...



The 1880s also match the underlying multidecadal PDO state according to the NCDC...


After seeing what occurred in the 1880s, I've (finally) become a bit more skeptical that the multi-year current AMO crash is indicative of a long-term multidecadal flip. The AMO in the decades leading up to the 1880s (like what's been observed) was predominantly positive, but there was a "sudden" & rather unusual multi-year dip in the mid 1880s before the AMO began to recover following the 1884-86 multi-year El Nino & it came back w/ ferocity in the 1890s (peaking likely ~1893) before finally going cold at the turn of the 20th century. I surely hope we don't continue to follow 1884-86's example, esp. given the 7 hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast in 1886... The lower(ing) solar forcing during this period also makes the 1880s more attractive as a set of analogs...




In spite of the obvious potential errors/reliability of the earlier portions of the reanalysis datasets, it's hard to ignore the stark similarities to 1884-86.

Kaplan Global SSTs MAM 1885



Global SSTs MAM (thus far) this year
So today's the 4th anniversary of the super outbreak, the 1st anniversary of the tornado that hit mayflower and vilonia (which was also hit on april 25th, 2011) and last night was like night of the twisters sw of fort worth!
Judging by the diction, they're the same person.


i would agree drak......the man might need to take a bow....he aint no typical doc masters blogger.....maybe i should strike that...is there such a thing as a typical doc masters blogger?
TWC say's there's no roation.

Definitely rotation south of the city. Location where there is a hint of yellow/red and the green coming together in the middle.
Right on cue. LOL.
Quoting 65. ricderr:

OK....SO I HAVE TO ASK..........

we have a member with the name of webberweather.......are you one and the same as the twitter feed webberweather....and as such....are you the same mr webb of weatheradvance fame and the author of windows of meteorology?????


Yep, I started w/ a relatively limited knowledge base @ weather advance a few years ago, but still may occasionally throw around a post every once in a while. Since I began lurking here in 2009, this blog has actually been a huge reason why my interest in meteorology skyrocketed over the last several years & I sincerely want to thank everyone for that, I wouldn't be where I am right now without it... I am not the author of the windows of meteorology however....
Watch the formation of the tornado just south of New Orleans.
Quoting 70. Webberweather53:




thanks for the blog within a blog entry
Jason Nicholls ‏@jnmet 3h3 hours ago
Maybe it's the still strong +PDO, but JAMSTEC predicted temps. in US this coming winter not typical of El Nino.
Yep, I started w/ a relatively limited knowledge base @ weather advance a few years ago, but still may occasionally throw around a post every once in a while. Since I began lurking here in 2009, this blog has actually been a huge reason why my interest in meteorology skyrocketed over the last several years & I sincerely want to thank everyone for that, I wouldn't be where I am right now without it... I am not the author of the windows of meteorology however....


well......i've read you over there and never put two and two together until i saw your twitter post this morning
Assuming that persistence & historical precedence verifies (as shown in post #70), I'm going to fully back Cody Fields's idea for the peak of this El Nino to be in the +1.1-1.4C range, putting it safely inside moderate territory...
Waiting for Patrap to come out in the dry slot and let us know how things are faring in his parts wind damage wise..
There's still rapid rotation just S.E. of New Orleans. It should be moving out over the GOM pretty soon.
As of 12 minutes ago:

Its very hot and very dry and there is no end in sight and it sucks.

I have given up on plants.

We have been stuck under a ridge in the Caribbean in what seems months.

Oh and the saharan dust.....lovely stuff.

uggg
Quoting 39. LargoFl:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
735 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-07 9-2812 45-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
735 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN AREA COASTAL WATERS...WITH A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...WITH A BOUNDARY
STALLED ALONG THE COAST...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING
TO AREA COASTAL COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY...SPREADING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEAKER
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ALSO...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONDITIONS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$



Here it all comes again, maybe I won't lose power this time.
90 knots of wind shear per Cimss across the Northern Gulf coast:

Don not venture out in the western burbs as the Wake Low Winds n the backside are coming in now.'
High Wind Warning
Statement as of 11:17 AM CDT on April 27, 2015


... High Wind Warning in effect until 2 PM CDT this afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a High
Wind Warning... which is in effect until 2 PM CDT this afternoon.

* Timing... this will occur about 30 minutes after rain has mostly
come to an end and will continue to about an hour

* winds... winds of 40 to 55 mph possible

* duration... 1 to 3 hours

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.



Cab

Hope everyone to the east of this rapid moving line has eyes on it.

KLIX NWS already posted 4 damage reports in Houma-Thibodaux metro. And not the worst hit area. Radar tornado signature was evident from near Thibodaux to Des Allemands / Lafitte.

Wow, did it get incredibly dark as approached - looked like last 5 minutes of twilight as line hit here near 10 AM w intense lightning.

My CoCoRah gauge went from bone dry to one inch and overflowing in 9 minutes! Near the 2" mark now.
Had NNW gusts 45-50 mph at home, lot limbs down, objects strewn, etc. Temp fell 75.7 / 65.5F.

Stay safe, folks!
Been a interesting Hour...


:
Entergy reports 35K w/o power in Jefferson Parish, 5k in Orleans.

We took a solid event...we have a truck in the Canal at W. Napoleon & Maine in Jeff Parish.

If you dont have to get out and about.

Dont.

Railroad car has been blown off the Train Tracks OFF the Miss RIver Huey P. Long Bridge.

Jesus, its off the span on the road.

NWS Storm Reports


1440 3 NNW THIBODAUX LAFOURCHE LA 2983 9084 TORNADO VISUALLY SIGHTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE PERSONNEL (LIX)
Pat, check out Ch 8 / WVUE - they're reporting / showing some images of railroad cars that were blown off the Huey Long bridge as winds reached 100 mph!
Yikes!!!

(EDIT - okay, saw noted in your post above)
Surfing like a wild TV Banshee,

Was wild and wooly.

Seems the worst was down Des Allmends, over to Belle Chase, the F-16 Ready Alert Hanger Area, a friend of mine saw it.
Hey Doc, you got mojo beaucoup in.
yer Hood.


Lordy, more breaking out back in Lake Charles.

Wake Low winds jus here at Bonnabel and Vets.


That TVS like a Timex.

Looks like the worst of it is in LA this morning and the strongest convection is heading offshore for the moment; that is better news for Mobile down the line.
The Winds here behind the squall in the wake low are almost,if not stronger than the front.
Unbelievable when you consider the scope of this complex and all of the wind damage in coastal LA; basically like a fast moving Cat 1-2 with damaging winds across a wide area;


Details about the heat record in Havana, you can find them on my page (www.consultorageomet.blogspot.com) which I shared with Dr. Maximiliano
holy crap
don't know if I should be thankful this mess isn't over water-

-or not-

that's a hella energy to keep going, smoke from
yucatan weed-
Unbelievable when you consider the scope of this complex and all of the wind damage in coastal LA; basically like a fast moving Cat 1-2 with damaging winds across a wide area;
and if this was over water
and if this was June
and if this was slower
There was a 70 mph wind gust at New Orleans International Airport
105. yoboi
Quoting 88. Patrap:

Don not venture out in the western burbs as the Wake Low Winds n the backside are coming in now.'
High Wind Warning
Statement as of 11:17 AM CDT on April 27, 2015


... High Wind Warning in effect until 2 PM CDT this afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a High
Wind Warning... which is in effect until 2 PM CDT this afternoon.

* Timing... this will occur about 30 minutes after rain has mostly
come to an end and will continue to about an hour

* winds... winds of 40 to 55 mph possible

* duration... 1 to 3 hours

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.



Cab




I was wondering why the wind was so gusty after the storm passed by this morning....wake low
Sample so far of the most recent reports (with lots to follow):

1440UNKHOUMATERREBONNELA29589071SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN HOUMA AREA(LIX)1440UNK1 N BATON ROUGEEAST BATON ROUGELA30469113FRONT DOOR BLOWN OFF OF A COMMERICAL BUSINESS ON CHOCTAW DRIVE. (LIX)1443UNKTHIBODAUXLAFOURCHELA29799082BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED ROOFS OFF SEVERAL HOUSES IN THE THIBODAUX AREA.(LIX)1510UNKHOUMATERREBONNELA29589071SEVERAL TREES AND POWER POLE REPORTED DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR (LIX)15206021 SW BURNS POINTGMZ455LA29369178REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 24. (LCH)152871NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AJEFFERSONLA29989025WIND GUST TO 61KT OR 70 MPH MEASURED AT NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT.(LIX)1530UNKKENNERJEFFERSONLA29989025ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE IN KENNER. (LIX)155066TERRYTOWNJEFFERSONLA29909003COOP OBSERVER RECORDED 66 MPH GUSTS.(LIX)
1430 UNK PLAQUEMINE IBERVILLE LA 3028 9124 TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ACROSS IBERVILLE PARISH. (LIX)
1440 UNK HOUMA TERREBONNE LA 2958 9071 SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN HOUMA AREA (LIX)
1440 UNK 1 N BATON ROUGE EAST BATON ROUGE LA 3046 9113 FRONT DOOR BLOWN OFF OF A COMMERICAL BUSINESS ON CHOCTAW DRIVE. (LIX)
1443 UNK THIBODAUX LAFOURCHE LA 2979 9082 BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED ROOFS OFF SEVERAL HOUSES IN THE THIBODAUX AREA. (LIX)
1510 UNK HOUMA TERREBONNE LA 2958 9071 SEVERAL TREES AND POWER POLE REPORTED DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR (LIX)

1520 60 21 SW BURNS POINT GMZ455 LA 2936 9178 REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 24. (LCH)


1528 71 NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG A JEFFERSON LA 2998 9025 WIND GUST TO 61KT OR 70 MPH MEASURED AT NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT. (LIX)

1530 UNK KENNER JEFFERSON LA 2998 9025 ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE IN KENNER. (LIX)

1550 66 TERRYTOWN JEFFERSON LA 2990 9003 COOP OBSERVER RECORDED 66 MPH GUSTS. (LIX)
Current from MSY New Orleans

WInds Sustained 38-Gust to 49mph.
There are now 11 rail Cars COntainers that were blown off the bridge to the ground at least 100 ft.

Live crew there.

Seems some were double stacked.

Wild.

Quoting Patrap:
wwltv.com
Quoting 103. aquak9:

Unbelievable when you consider the scope of this complex and all of the wind damage in coastal LA; basically like a fast moving Cat 1-2 with damaging winds across a wide area;
and if this was over water
and if this was June
and if this was slower
Boom
Quoting yoboi:


I was wondering why the wind was so gusty after the storm passed by this morning....wake low


Lots of wind with this system. At elevation winds of 70 knots or more moved through the New Orleans area.
MSY New Orleans AIrport has gone dark, blackout.

Lines into the sub stain down,..Generatore off and on..

Ground HALT MSY declared.


No fights, No data.


Security is good.
This might be classified in retrospect as one of those "gravity wave" events based on the widespread straight line winds:

Gravity waves are still an emerging area of research in meteorology.

Meteorologists still don’t fully understand just how they tap into storms, and duct severe winds to ground level. The best way I can describe these rare events is to think of throwing a big rock into a calm lake, and watching the pressure waves and ripples flow out from the splash. These pressure waves roll out, as the force of gravity tries to return the lake to it’s natural calm state.


Coleman is scheduled to present his preliminary research findings at the American Meteorological Society’s Conference on Severe Local Storms in St. Louis on Monday.

In addition to their interaction with tornadoes, these atmospheric waves -- also called "gravity waves" -- may interact with fast-moving squall lines, might influence rain and snowfall, and can cause local high speed, straight-line wind damage.

While Coleman's National Science Foundation and NOAA-funded study of gravity waves is in its early stages, his long term goal is to develop tools to improve short range forecasts of violent weather, including tornadoes.


115. beell

15Z RAP 2 hr pressure change

RAP version of the wake low at 15Z (10AM CDT). A 4mb pressure fall.


John Knox's version of a Wake Low

PENTECOST: 30 JUNE 1993


Written Pentecost 1998,
Castelvecchio Pascoli, Tuscany


Awakened by wind
Wearywondering: do
Iowa floodstorms beckon?
No; fluent, it lacks
Spurt and pause, a
Gustless rush sustained
Unpunctuated by thunder.

The shades shimmy. Stirring, I
Whisper to my scientist-spouse
"Geostrophic adjustment,"
Speaking tongues half-translated from the Greek,
Galilean variant,
Babble of a specialist.
A rare nimbus collapses, spawning
Gush into absence
Bursting headlong lest Earth
Spiral it askance,
Retrospective prophet of senescence.

Shade-trees supine, I shed linens and
Arise,
Dark-drunkenly staggering in shag
To the slamshut door
Passing through soundless stumbling. A
Severe weather statement scrolls
Assuring end to breeze
Unforeseen seconds hence,
Its source obscured, name
Stricken from public consumption.
Unstanched, the spewing sluiced past

Until sunrise, strewing
Streetslough and spiked squiggles on
Pressure traces to attest.
The tower gauge malfunctioned.
Story unspooled, peers share
Stitched-up passion, since
An eyewitness perspective
Simply isn't publishable.

Soulwhirring but wordless, I
Await a second wind.


by John Knox
Most seem to agree,

worst event,widespread since Hurricane Isaac, Aug 2012.

More development to the west.
....that's no Moon'





This observation on gravity waves (Alabama 2013)  lends credence to the comments made earlier that Patrap observed as to the "back-side" winds being worse than the front end (link below):


BIRMINGHAM, Alabama -- If you experienced high winds last night, perhaps some downed trees or property damage, you can blame those events on a weather phenomenon called a gravity wave.

"These were low pressure areas in the wake of rain we had," Stefkovich said today. "The rain came through, and it built up some higher pressure near and ahead of the rain, and it left lower pressure on the back side."

Gravity waves are different than many other serve weather events, according to Stefkovich, since the greatest threat comes at the end, not the beginning, of an event.

"It's kind of the reverse of what we think of as severe weather," he said. "You get high pressure as the rain is ending and or has almost ended." 

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2013/01/birmingham_me tro_hit_by_high_w.html


123. 882MB




Mobile NEXRAD

Quoting 114. weathermanwannabe:

This might be classified in retrospect as one of those "gravity wave" events based on the widespread straight line winds:

Gravity waves are still an emerging area of research in meteorology.

Meteorologists still don’t fully understand just how they tap into storms, and duct severe winds to ground level. The best way I can describe these rare events is to think of throwing a big rock into a calm lake, and watching the pressure waves and ripples flow out from the splash. These pressure waves roll out, as the force of gravity tries to return the lake to it’s natural calm state.


Coleman is scheduled to present his preliminary research findings at the American Meteorological Society’s Conference on Severe Local Storms in St. Louis on Monday.

In addition to their interaction with tornadoes, these atmospheric waves -- also called "gravity waves" -- may interact with fast-moving squall lines, might influence rain and snowfall, and can cause local high speed, straight-line wind damage.

While Coleman's National Science Foundation and NOAA-funded study of gravity waves is in its early stages, his long term goal is to develop tools to improve short range forecasts of violent weather, including tornadoes.





The ripples you see when an object is thrown into a lake and also the generic waves you see on beaches are classified as deep water gravity waves. Bores, gust fronts, tsunamis, and most of the cold pool stuff that comes from thunderstorm complexes are what are called shallow water gravity waves. The difference is the ratio of wavelength to depth, when wavelength is long compared to depth (or vertical scale), the shallow water equations (which BTW are simpler and have easier to work with solutions ] apply.

You are right, understanding how the physics of these interacts with other atmospheric phenomena will be crucial to understanding short term mesoscale weather phenomena and this is on my list of possible research topics I'd like to go after if I ever return to grad school (unlikely.. i'm 57 and feel mentally older and weaker every year]
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Lots of wind with this system. At elevation winds of 70 knots or more moved through the New Orleans area.


Hope everyone is safe.


I shall only say this once.

Everyone in the path of that system-TAKE COVER NOW!!!!!!!!!!

Oh, and here is the theme song for this QLCS.

Link
127. vis0
These i posted on patraps blogbyte (next to patraps latest blogbyte, latest being Hurricane preparedness 2015).
CREDIT:: NWS, WxU, Patrap.
D&T:: On gifloops.
up to 20150426_27_0041CDT (times are CENTRAL not UT_)
zoomed in, w/1 later radar pass ~ 5mins later
Relative_Mean_Radial_Velocity_1_45_Deg
all titles are taken from patraps comments.
129. yoboi
Quoting 108. Patrap:

Current from MSY New Orleans

WInds Sustained 38-Gust to 49mph.


What direction your wind blowing?? After the storm passed here this morning it switch to the NNW...Lasted for about an hour..
Quoting 128. Patrap:

Images coming in, note the rail cars that got blown off the Huey P. Long Miss RIver Bridge to the ground.




Getting the 'this webpage is not available' message.
About this time (an hour from now) on April 27, 2011, this happened:



SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF EVERGREEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231...WW
232...WW 233...WW 234...

DISCUSSION...A CLASSIC TORNADO OUTBREAK SITUATION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF AL AS DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FORM OVER MS AND
TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WILL POSE A DANGEROUS RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT AND POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
link at 128 didn't work-

PLEASE stay over land
PLEASE don't get over water
Quoting yonzabam:


Getting the 'this webpage is not available' message.


I didn't get it either, but that may be because it may be blocked where I am now.
www.wwltv.com

reloaded'

: )
Video of Huey P Long bridge train derailment. New Orleans metro area.
Several cars fall:
http://wgno.com/2015/04/27/watch-strong-winds-kno cks-over-train-in-jefferson-parish/
Seems GOM Screaming Meemie # 1 is Born.

Pre Season one could say.


The Eastern Pacific is already wanting to motor.
Look this large area of convection SW of Mexico


MJO forecast until May 7th:


GFS 12z:


Sea Surface Temperatures:



Anomalies (WOW/LOL):


... this season should be quite interesting...This season will be more active than last year...
My predictions are
22-26 named storms
12-17 hurricanes
9-12 major hurricanes

Another hyperactive hurricane season.
Quoting pablosyn:
The Eastern Pacific is already wanting to motor.
Look this large area of convection SW of Mexico


MJO forecast until May 7th:


Sea Surface Temperatures:



Anomalies (WOW/LOL):


... this season should be quite interesting...This season will be more active than last year...
My predictions are
22-26 named storms
12-17 hurricanes
9-12 major hurricanes

Another hyperactive hurricane season.


Whoa. That'll leave 0-4 letters remaining.

My predictions for the East Pacific:

20-13-6
New Orleans metro area train derailment off a bridge.

NASA's GEOS-5 Has a disorganized Tropical Storm for the EPAC mid to late next week..

At least the wind shear will keep this one from developing any further; almost looks like a partially formed eyewall................... :)

Southern Mississippi Valley sector
Quoting Skyepony:
NASA's GEOS-5 Has a disorganized Tropical Storm for the EPAC mid to late next week..



Then the Hurricane God wants to get started on the East Pacific early.

Figured.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
At lest the wind shear will keep this one from developing any further; almost looks like a partially formed eyewall................... :)
Southern Mississippi Valley sector


This will not develop. I am sure of it.
Quoting 146. 62901IL:



This will not develop. I am sure of it.


I was joking.................... :)
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:

There was a 70 mph wind gust at New Orleans International Airport


Those storms are heading for FL. I hope those in C FL are paying attention as those storms will be here later this evening.

Very impressive MCS heading ESE toward the West Coast of FL.

Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation (VIL)
Range
124 NMI


00Z GEOS-5 run brings the worst more south in the tail than before.


Also the energy moves down the tail over Cuba as the main low forms well off the Carolinas, breaks off and moves back up over FL to harass it with more moisture next week than the previous solution where the energy breaks off in the Carolinas and moves down the coast.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1113 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1056 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1032 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1024 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1018 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1013 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1003 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 959 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 953 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 948 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 946 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 932 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 928 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 917 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 907 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 401 AM HST MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 854 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 851 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 851 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 848 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 836 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 813 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those storms are heading for FL. I hope those in C FL are paying attention as those storms will be here later this evening.

Very impressive MCS heading ESE toward the West Coast of FL.



It definitely needs to be watched to see if it retains its intensity as it crosses the GOM.

On a scale of 10 pucker factor,

I give this event a solid 7.2

: )
Quoting 150. Skyepony:






I think we are in for beating later this evening Skye. These storms are impressive and they are building out in front of the main MCS.

Quoting 153. Sfloridacat5:



It definitely needs to be watched to see if it retains its intensity as it crosses the GOM.




Looks to be on the west coast in like 8 hours if it maintains its speed.
Quoting 156. Patrap:






MSO low riding ESE down that boundary that extends over to N C FL.
Note the Cyclonic structure at the very top of the radar image

Quoting 15. Neapolitan:

While not nearly as hot as the East Coast, Naples was nonetheless pretty miserable yesterday. The temperature here has now been above normal 55 of the past 60 days, including every day so far this month. And today doesn't look to be much more comfortable here:

FLUS42 KMFL 270735
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...BRINGING THREATS OF FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND: STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH CANT
BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS.

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES OVER THE EVERGLADES WILL EXCEED 100
DEGREES TODAY.


A little scary if you ask me.
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:



Looks to be on the west coast in like 8 hours if it maintains its speed.
Should make for an interesting evening... already getting some showers and lightening (Santa Rosa Beach) but nothing heavy... yet...
Quoting 153. Sfloridacat5:



It definitely needs to be watched to see if it retains its intensity as it crosses the GOM.




I wouldn't be terribly worried though, model guidance has stayed consistent on this being a good rain provider for Central Florida, but aren't nearly as strong on the severe chances. Seems to me the risk will still be there for a few cells going severe but likely nothing like seen in Louisiana and Texas.
The upper disturbance responsible for the MCS is shouldn't be quite as vigorous by the time it reaches Florida, also the current MCS is moving faster than the upper support, so it may end up collapsing before reaching Florida.

Still though, there will still be a number of upper disturbances crossing the state combing with a developing surface low, adequate instability, and deep tropical moisture near record levels expected for this time of year. So there will be no problem generating numerous showers and thunderstorms for the area tomorrow and Wednesday.
It's just instability and shear doesn't look as bad as earlier guidance, although there seems to be enough that I would think the SPC would issue a lower end slight risk as there may be still a few severe cells possible.

No outbreak expected though or anything, more beneficial than harmful!
Quoting 161. JNFlori30A:

Should make for an interesting evening... already getting some showers and lightening (Santa Rosa Beach) but nothing heavy... yet...
I know a lot of rain is coming..when my city sends out the mechanical street sweepers lol
Nice view of the big picture for today that includes the Gulf complex as well as the E-pac starting to prime:

It would have probably been worse for LA if the complex had arrived later in the afternoon with additional day-time heating; very powerful nonetheless for an early am passage.
166. vis0

Quoting 70. Webberweather53:

In the context of all the multi-year El Ninos in the "reliable" historical record & in terms of the SOI this year is rather unimpressive. (even though the SOI is a noisy index, I've taken a tri-monthly mean to smooth out the smaller-scale variance w/ a tri-monthly mean (>90 day), exceeding the upper bounds of intraseasonal variability (30-90 days)) We got off to a fast start last year, but we have since fallen off & given that the 30 day SOI is running near -3, our new tri-monthly value is about in the middle of the pack ~ -4.5, only beating out the weak 2nd year El Ninos of 1885-86, 1914-15, 1958-59, & 1977-78, & is of course a good distance behind all of the moderate-strong 2nd year El Ninos of 1899-00, 1905-06, 1940-41 & 1987-88. This evidence alone suggests a moderate event is most likely on the way, & forecasting a strong NINO is probably unreasonable from a historical perspective, esp. considering that the highest ONI value recorded since 1900 in any 2nd year+ El Nino is only +1.6C (1987-88)...
(I circled where we currently stand this year, I'm not very impressed...)


This year's intensification right after the solstice (JFM-FMA) is rather unusual historically speaking & 1987-88 is the most recent event to experience this sort of odd behavior. In fact, this NINO is pretty close to what StormTrackerScott is predicting (strong NINO w/ +1.8C ONI peak, 1987-88's peak was only +1.6, but it's close enough), & is thus is a useful metric for comparison.

We're way behind in most, if not all departments, including but not limited to SLP, OLR, WWBs, SSTs vs the 1986-88 event & things better change in a hurry if we're going to have a legitimate shot @ seeing a strong El Nino...

JFM 1987 vs 2015 Eq Pacific SSTs



JFM 1987 vs 2015 Eq Pacific OLR



JFM 1987 vs 2015 U850 anomalies



JFM 1987 Eq Pacific SLP Anomalies



JFM 2015 Eq Pacific SLP Anomalies (the exact same scaling was used as in the preceding picture)



Even w/ the recent intensification of this EN, we're still trailing 1987-88 by a substantial margin



BTW, I personally think the 1884-86 series provides the best set of analogs to the current set-up.

Using the nearest available 30 year base period (1872-1901), the winter z500 the last few years matches up nicely...

1884-85's semblance to 2013-14 is stunning.




Amazingly, (aside from the proper recognition of the -AMO stint) this set of years was even able to pick up on the development/easterly progression of the anomalously large warm pool ("blob") in the GOA in the preceding winter which has now morphed into the classic +PDO signature w/ a ring of extremely warm water on the west coast of N America...



The 1880s also match the underlying multidecadal PDO state according to the NCDC...


After seeing what occurred in the 1880s, I've (finally) become a bit more skeptical that the multi-year current AMO crash is indicative of a long-term multidecadal flip. The AMO in the decades leading up to the 1880s (like what's been observed) was predominantly positive, but there was a "sudden" & rather unusual multi-year dip in the mid 1880s before the AMO began to recover following the 1884-86 multi-year El Nino & it came back w/ ferocity in the 1890s (peaking likely ~1893) before finally going cold at the turn of the 20th century. I surely hope we don't continue to follow 1884-86's example, esp. given the 7 hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast in 1886... The lower(ing) solar forcing during this period also makes the 1880s more attractive as a set of analogs...




In spite of the obvious potential errors/reliability of the earlier portions of the reanalysis datasets, it's hard to ignore the stark similarities to 1884-86.

Kaplan Global SSTs MAM 1885



Global SSTs MAM (thus far) this year

Ya took da werds right out of my mouse...being i'm holding a 128GB storage chip that is holding 3 Encyclopedias.

Though on my blog since 2013 i've stated when to watch for 2 or 3 Niños "types"  in a 4 to 5 yr period and why... the difference is i used my nutty science of Galacsics. EXCELLENT COMMENT Webberweather.

Please stay tuned to NOAA
radio and remember my nutty warning to be on the look out for weather changing 2 times stronger, faster, reoccurring, turning than is expected when one reefers to historical records, not just due to aGw (as strong storms have occurred before aGW and will become worse but not this quickly...though in a decade or two nature by herself will really tap into aGW's pool) but for a reason regular members know and i only post of on my blog. It worries me as last night (last Dr. Masters blog and on twitter) some people where saying since Texas already had severe a day or so ago it would be hard to re-fire strong storms and post graphs and radars showing there is no activity but remember nature has deep sleeves and what up those sleeves...???. Just notice since 2009/10 with so much improvements which are really good improvements man is having a harder time predicting sudden changes.

On a side dish of fries (maybe popcorn) note.
For those looking for "Ana" just remember if Ana asks "Come Yami usted?" do not say your name, instead say "Si, Como yami con arroz, pollo y abichuelas rosadas.(Do you eat ~yams...yes i eat ~yams with rice, chicken and pink beans.)
Pt1

Quoting JRRP:

do you saw this ?


Ok...
Wind burst slightly bit stronger than the last strong burst

Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs dont wast your time with him and if your going too : Quote him plzse re move his commits 1st from the : Quote i have him on the ignore list and when you quote him it by pass my ignore



NOTES TOO THE ADMINS AND MODS THE QUOTE NEEDS TOO GO HAS ITS ENTER FEARING WITH THE IGNORE LIST

RE MOVE THE QUOTE!!!!


NOTE TO ADMIN TAZ NEEDS A CHILL BREAK BECAUSE IF HE DOESNT HE WILL FREAK OUT MUCH MORE THAN WHAT HE IS DOING

Re: #127 - vis0


Wow, amazing images. Stunning...
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:



Looks to be on the west coast in like 8 hours if it maintains its speed.


Ugh, that means I will not be getting much sleep tonight. I cannot sleep during thunderstorms. Already getting some light rain here, and according to the radar it won't let up for a while. Looking at what these storms are doing in LA and the fact that they don't seem to be losing intensity very much, tonight could be very interesting.

On another note, an F1 went through our town last Monday (the 20th). It touched down for 5 min or less and most of the damage was downed trees. It either touched down or dissipated in a Wal-Mart parking lot, and we were in that store when it happened. I'm pretty sure I heard the tornado and thought that it was thunder, though I thought it odd that there had been only one thunderclap in the whole storm. When we went outside, we saw trash cans, carts, and potted plants scattered around the parking lot and were wondering what had happened. Mom later found an article stating what had happened, although no one is sure which way the tornado was going. Thankfully it was pretty weak and did not do a whole lot of damage. I just hope this system doesn't bring more with it. I'd like to see a tornado, but not tearing up my city.
Quoting 19N81W:
Its very hot and very dry and there is no end in sight and it sucks.

I have given up on plants.

We have been stuck under a ridge in the Caribbean in what seems months.

Oh and the saharan dust.....lovely stuff.

uggg


Give it time it's almost here

Quoting Skyepony:
NASA's GEOS-5 Has a disorganized Tropical Storm for the EPAC mid to late next week..



Would not be surprised after all it would be May when that happens

Quoting Skyepony:
00Z GEOS-5 run brings the worst more south in the tail than before.


Also the energy moves down the tail over Cuba as the main low forms well off the Carolinas, breaks off and moves back up over FL to harass it with more moisture next week than the previous solution where the energy breaks off in the Carolinas and moves down the coast.


Interesting
Anyone else watching the live footage on TWC of the fire fight in Granada Hills Ca?
Pretty awesome stuff.
So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day

Some big homes going up in flames. Gusty Santa Ana winds making it very hard to control the fires.
TWC said no homes were lost even though they showed a big home on fire a few minutes ago?

Not sure what the deal is. 200 fire fighters protecting the Granada Hills community.

Very intense thunderstorm complex on route to FL. Looks by my estimation around 10pm this complex comes ashore just north of Tampa or over Tampa. Either way this bares watching as there could be a weather watch issued soon if Norman believes this complex holds together which looks like it will.






MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015


AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271808Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS LA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY EXTEND BACK INTO SE TX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW AND CNTRL LA TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 500 J/KG TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM. IN ADDITION...THE POE
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 50 TO 55 KT OF FLOW AT 5 KM THAT IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WITH CELLS THAT CAN ROTATE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MOVE THIS CONVECTION NEWD ACROSS CNTRL LA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL COULD CONTINUE WITH CELLS THAT MOVE INTO
SW MS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CELLS WILL
PROBABLY INITIATE IN THE HOUSTON AREA ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. THIS CONVECTION COULD BE CLOSER TO BEING SFC-BASED AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/27/2015


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30069262 29479430 29469494 29799531 30369559 30869550
31119516 31369467 31929263 31479177 30709167 30069262

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:

So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day


Happy BDay Wunderkidcayman
183. flsky
With that accent anyone would know he was from NO.
Quoting 180. Patrap:







Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very intense thunderstorm complex on route to FL. Looks by my estimation around 10pm this complex comes ashore just north of Tampa or over Tampa. Either way this bares watching as there could be a weather watch issued soon if Norman believes this complex holds together which looks like it will.






The Storm Relative Mean Velocity is showing winds over 65 knots in that small circulation on the southern end of the system.

TWC said no homes were lost even though they showed a big home on fire a few minutes ago?

Not sure what the deal is. 200 fire fighters protecting the Granada Hills community.




i see that they say it's been under control about 20 minutes ago...but i can't find any details that a house caught on fire........

Quoting ricderr:

TWC said no homes were lost even though they showed a big home on fire a few minutes ago?

Not sure what the deal is. 200 fire fighters protecting the Granada Hills community.




i see that they say it's been under control about 20 minutes ago...but i can't find any details that a house caught on fire........



Fire fighters really did a good job controlling this fire.
They were fighting the fire with flames only a few feet away from where they were working.
Helicopters dumping chemical (doesn't look like water) on the hot spots.
Quoting 177. Patrap:











Wow! Amazing capture.
188. yoboi
Quoting 177. Patrap:











Raising Cane how appropriate....
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:

So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day




Happy birthday!! As to the storms striking on your birthday, probably everybody with a birthday between April and September has that. Unfortunately there is nothing we can do about it.
Quoting 115. beell:


15Z RAP 2 hr pressure change

RAP version of the wake low at 15Z (10AM CDT). A 4mb pressure fall.


John Knox's version of a Wake Low

PENTECOST: 30 JUNE 1993


Written Pentecost 1998,
Castelvecchio Pascoli, Tuscany


Awakened by wind
Wearywondering: do
Iowa floodstorms beckon?
No; fluent, it lacks
Spurt and pause, a
Gustless rush sustained
Unpunctuated by thunder.

The shades shimmy. Stirring, I
Whisper to my scientist-spouse
"Geostrophic adjustment,"
Speaking tongues half-translated from the Greek,
Galilean variant,
Babble of a specialist.
A rare nimbus collapses, spawning
Gush into absence
Bursting headlong lest Earth
Spiral it askance,
Retrospective prophet of senescence.

Shade-trees supine, I shed linens and
Arise,
Dark-drunkenly staggering in shag
To the slamshut door
Passing through soundless stumbling. A
Severe weather statement scrolls
Assuring end to breeze
Unforeseen seconds hence,
Its source obscured, name
Stricken from public consumption.
Unstanched, the spewing sluiced past

Until sunrise, strewing
Streetslough and spiked squiggles on
Pressure traces to attest.
The tower gauge malfunctioned.
Story unspooled, peers share
Stitched-up passion, since
An eyewitness perspective
Simply isn't publishable.

Soulwhirring but wordless, I
Await a second wind.


by John Knox

Interesting "weather" poem. Wonder if that Sunday morning in Tuscany 1993 also inspired John Knox's research. From the wiki... "Since 1995 Knox has performed research on clear-air turbulence (CAT), in particular CAT forecasting."
At this time on April 27, 2011, the first of EF5 tornadoes was ongoing across Mississippi. Beginning in Neshoba County, the violent tornado caused damage in Kemper County prior to dissipating in Noxubee County. It tracked for a total of 29 miles and reached a maximum width of 1/2mi. The tornado was responsible for 3 fatalities, all of which occurred in a doublewide mobile home after it was thrown 300 yards into a treeline and shredded. Across the hardest hit areas, numerous trees were debarked, two residences were almost completely leveled, with only portions of the interior walls remaining, and intense ground scouring was observed, with trenches up to 2 feet deep in some locations.

Radar:



Ground scouring:



Video
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:

Very intense thunderstorm complex on route to FL. Looks by my estimation around 10pm this complex comes ashore just north of Tampa or over Tampa. Either way this bares watching as there could be a weather watch issued soon if Norman believes this complex holds together which looks like it will.







Yeah it will be a tough call whether it will hold together, as it has outrun it's upper support and will continue to do so. At the same time, though, it has a very vigorous meso-low associated with it that may continue to create the necessary low level convergence for it to persist. Even if it does it probably won't be quite as vigorous as it was in Louisiana, although so far it really hasn't weakened, it's out of radar range and still has very strong reflectivity, so it's still one heck of a thunderstorm complex at least for now.

Even if it doesn't make it, there won't be any shortage of rain between Tuesday and Wednesday with jet energy, PW's near 2 inches and a developing surface low.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day



My birthday is August 24th (the day Andrew made landfall).
195. TXCWC
GEM/Euro/GFS all showing something 9 days out off SE Coast...long ways out but possibly something to watch for
GEM

Euro

GFS - weaker and further east but still there
New record high temperature in San Juan with 94F.

IT HAS BEEN A HOT DAY TODAY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO
RICO...IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET
IN 2010.
Quoting 195. TXCWC:

GEM/Euro/GFS all showing something 9 days out off SE Coast...long ways out but possibly something to watch for
GEM

Euro

GFS - weaker and further east but still there




199. 882MB
Quoting 196. Tropicsweatherpr:

New record high temperature in San Juan with 94F.

IT HAS BEEN A HOT DAY TODAY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO
RICO...IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET
IN 2010.



Hey there buddy, you got mail!
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurric ane2/movie/latest.mov
happy birthday...
 if we all look hard enough we can find horrible things that occur on every birthday but on the other side some good things too
:)
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:

So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day



202. 882MB
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:

So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day




Happy birthday kid. God bless and all that matters is your healthy right now. Don't think about death yet, your too young. And about bad weather almost everyone has had some type of weather related history on there birthday, that they don't even know about. Just have fun, take care and have a blast! :)
Quoting 187. Jedkins01:



Wow! Amazing capture.
yeah scary imagine being under that
NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NM

Of course the heat in S. Fla has nothing to do with oh hell I aint allowed to say it, the govner says so.....
207. yoboi
Quoting 204. Patrap:

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NM




Round # 2 Eastbound and down....
At 2005z (3:40pm CDT; 4:40pm EDT), the second of four violent EF5 tornadoes on April 27 began in Marion County, Alabama, tracking into Franklin, Lawrence, Morgan, Limestone, Madison, Lincoln (Tennessee), and Franklin (Tennessee) counties prior to dissipating. In all, it tracked 132.1 miles, the longest of any tornado during the outbreak, and reached a maximum width of 2,220 yards, or 1.25mi wide. Although this tornado impacted numerous communities, it is most well known for the damage it caused to the cities of Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, Tanner, and Harvest. In the hardest hit areas, numerous trees were debarked, vehicles were tossed upwards of 650 yards, numerous well-built structures were completely obliterated, and large amounts of wind rowing was observed. It was responsible for 72 deaths, the deadliest tornado in Alabama history and the deadliest in the United States since 1955 (until it was surpassed by the Joplin tornado a month later), and over 145 injuries.

Denuded trees and thrown vehicles:



A home obliterated:



A Piggly Wiggly and Family Dollar:



Phil Campbell tornado video
996  
WUUS54 KLCH 272020  
SVRLCH  
LAC009-039-079-097-272100-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0040.150427T2020Z-150427T2100Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
320 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
NORTH CENTRAL ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
CENTRAL EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT  
 
* AT 319 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
PINE PRAIRIE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TURKEY CREEK...AND MOVING  
EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
VILLE PLATTE...BUNKIE...MAMOU...MOREAUVILLE...TURKEY CREEK...  
MORROW...COTTONPORT...PINE PRAIRIE...EVERGREEN...PLAUCHEVILLE...  
REDDELL...CHICOT STATE PARK...GOUDEAU...BIG CANE...BAYOU CHICOT...  
INDIAN LAKE...BEAVER...WHITEVILLE...DUPONT AND ST. LANDRY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3065 9256 3082 9259 3105 9198 3076 9189  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 250DEG 39KT 3078 9249  
 
 
 
RUA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab TX Page

Main Text Page

Quoting 208. TropicalAnalystwx13:

At 2005z (3:40pm CDT; 4:40pm EDT), the second of four violent EF5 tornadoes on April 27 began in Marion County, Alabama, tracking into Franklin, Lawrence, Morgan, Limestone, Madison, Lincoln (Tennessee), and Franklin (Tennessee) counties prior to dissipating. In all, it tracked 132.1 miles, the longest of any tornado during the outbreak, and reached a maximum width of 2,220 yards, or 1.25mi wide. Although this tornado impacted numerous communities, it is most well known for the damage it caused to the cities of Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, Tanner, and Harvest. In the hardest hit areas, numerous trees were debarked, vehicles were tossed upwards of 650 yards, numerous well-built structures were completely obliterated, and large amounts of wind rowing was observed. It was responsible for 72 deaths, the deadliest tornado in Alabama history and the deadliest in the United States since 1955 (until it was surpassed by the Joplin tornado a month later), and over 145 injuries.

Denuded trees and thrown vehicles:



A home obliterated:



A Piggly Wiggly and Family Dollar:



Phil Campbell tornado video


That's the type of tornado where one's life is in danger regardless of taking shelter in a proper location in a home unless in an underground or above ground safe room. I hope I never experience anything like that.
211. 882MB
98S



A tropical low is developing to the south of Indonesia near 11.5S 115E, and is moving southwest. This low is currently weak but conditions are favorable for it to develop over the next few days. Conditions become rapidly unfavorable on Friday and so any development will be short-lived. The risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Low from Wednesday. These ratings may be increased if the environment continues to be favorable.
212. vis0
Is the universe a hologram? BB might have more on this, my Q:: Could it be that the Universe is even "greater" than thought so what we've (scientist) discovered THOUGH VERY IMPORTANT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! is even a smaller part of what makes up the universe. 
Now that's a bold statement.

hope all are OK in LA & surrounding communities/States...still on pg 3 so will be looking out for a Labonbon posts...weird a new member was welcomed by Labonbon after that terrible Tornado in Illinois and was to move to La  soon and the new member joked that she'd bring storms to La.   Luckily in reality nature does not do that (only to sar) so hoping all is as best as it can be...
RE- 206-

oh heck no- is it over water?
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:

So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day




Could be worse .. mine was the day it always seemed we went back to school from the summer vacation .. not a good Birthday Present for a kid ..
HRRR for tonight, notice even more rain for southern Louisiana.
Quoting 205. ekogaia:

Of course the heat in S. Fla has nothing to do with oh hell I aint allowed to say it, the govner says so.....


Actually this heat probably is due to WEATHER, not "that which must not be named". (and the WEATHER
is likely due to the abnormal SST distribution in the tropical and subtropical Pacific.. this time]

But however we deny it, "that which must not be named" is happening.


Happy Birthday wunderkidcayman!!!!!!
Late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Even more heavy rain for Louisiana and some heavy rain breaking out across central Florida and the east coast of Florida.
This might be getting a little repetitive, but hey--does anyone want to argue it's worse than the constant El Nino talks here? ;)

The third of four violent EF5 tornadoes on April 27, 2011 touched down in Monroe County, Alabama at 2042z, entering Itawamba, Marion, and Franklin counties prior to dissipating around 2123z. It tracked for a total of 37 miles and reached a peak width of 1,320 yards, or 0.75mi. The tornado is most well known for impacting the city of Smithville. In the most affected areas, numerous vehicles were thrown large distances, including a large pickup truck that was never found, numerous trees were denuded, and numerous structures were completely leveled. In fact, this tornado was so violent – it is commonly referred to as one of the strongest in the historical database – that it uplifted or removed portions of the concrete foundation from at least two homes. Items within the houses such as furniture and appliances were not seen, suggesting that they were thrown unimaginable distances or more likely just shredded to dust. Tar pavement from roads was rolled into balls. The tornado was responsible for at least 23 deaths and an unknown number of injuries.

Concrete foundation uplifted:



Remains of an SUV:



Smithville tornado video
220. yoboi
Round number 2 throwing some 1.5 inch hail....Had enough of this...
Quoting 164. weathermanwannabe:

Nice view of the big picture for today that includes the Gulf complex as well as the E-pac starting to prime:




You can clearly see the moisture channel from the Pacific into the Atlantic. For all European concerned, watch how long this pattern continues. There could be somebody in Europe get a beating with this additional water vapor content. Even a moderate El Nino could influence European weather with unexpected rain events, if the Jet Stream gets really stuck. Wait and see, for now, but looks suspicious.
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:

So umm no birthday love from Wunderground community this year

This is part of the reason why I don't like my birthday much

Another reason it's one more year closer to death

Another thing bad storms hit the US like the tornado outbreak on this day





Happy birthday! The roanoke, illinois tornado (the one that hit the parsons plant) happened on my birthday.
Quoting 208. TropicalAnalystwx13:

At 2005z (3:40pm CDT; 4:40pm EDT), the second of four violent EF5 tornadoes on April 27 began in Marion County, Alabama, tracking into Franklin, Lawrence, Morgan, Limestone, Madison, Lincoln (Tennessee), and Franklin (Tennessee) counties prior to dissipating. In all, it tracked 132.1 miles, the longest of any tornado during the outbreak, and reached a maximum width of 2,220 yards, or 1.25mi wide. Although this tornado impacted numerous communities, it is most well known for the damage it caused to the cities of Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, Tanner, and Harvest. In the hardest hit areas, numerous trees were debarked, vehicles were tossed upwards of 650 yards, numerous well-built structures were completely obliterated, and large amounts of wind rowing was observed. It was responsible for 72 deaths, the deadliest tornado in Alabama history and the deadliest in the United States since 1955 (until it was surpassed by the Joplin tornado a month later), and over 145 injuries.

Denuded trees and thrown vehicles:



A home obliterated:



A Piggly Wiggly and Family Dollar:



Phil Campbell tornado video



It's important to remember the super outbreak. By all means post all you want about it.
Quoting 222. TimTheWxMan:




Happy birthday! The roanoke, illinois tornado (the one that hit the parsons plant) happened on my birthday.


I was watching that storm when it lifted .. don't live far from it .. The owner of that business saved everyone's life that worked in that building .. and then paid them for months afterwards to the point he ended up selling it ..
New entry about the super outbreak anniversary, mayflower-vilonia tornado anniversary and last night's storms i dub "night of the twisters".
Quoting 224. whitewabit:



I was watching that storm when it lifted .. don't live far from it .. The owner of that business saved everyone's life that worked in that building .. and then paid them for months afterwards to the point he ended up selling it ..



Yeah, they were able to get everyone into their 2 shelters thanks to ample warning.
Not much change this afternoon in the pattern for the Gulf States; no relief in sight at the moment from a wet and windy few days thanks to the split-flow, El Nino, abundant moisture from the Gulf, stalled front, and the current position of the jet. The timing of everything, and the most severe periods, is up in the air so to speak. Here the the Tally NWS synopsis:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL STAY STALLED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
AN OVERNIGHT MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MCS SHOULD TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ALONG THE GULF COAST.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, ALONG THE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
MAIN RISK FOR THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTION, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES, THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING SPREADING OVER THE
REGION, THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH LIFT IS PRESENT
TO INITIATE STORMS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Well this isn't something I see every day, a light rain shield with lightning?
Quoting 220. yoboi:

Round number 2 throwing some 1.5 inch hail....Had enough of this...
enough its only the beginnings
God Speed to our friends in LA and stay safe in the Northern Gulf and Florida. As always, the rainfall sinks into the branches and trees (especially today) so any gusts between today and tomorrow will bring down more trees. Park your cars in safer spots and stay off the roads as much as you can the next few days. The current shot; see Yall tomorrow:

Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This might be getting a little repetitive, but hey--does anyone want to argue it's worse than the constant El Nino talks here? ;)

The third of four violent EF5 tornadoes on April 27, 2011 touched down in Monroe County, Alabama at 2042z, entering Itawamba, Marion, and Franklin counties prior to dissipating around 2123z. It tracked for a total of 37 miles and reached a peak width of 1,320 yards, or 0.75mi. The tornado is most well known for impacting the city of Smithville. In the most affected areas, numerous vehicles were thrown large distances, including a large pickup truck that was never found, numerous trees were denuded, and numerous structures were completely leveled. In fact, this tornado was so violent – it is commonly referred to as one of the strongest in the historical database – that it uplifted or removed portions of the concrete foundation from at least two homes. Items within the houses such as furniture and appliances were not seen, suggesting that they were thrown unimaginable distances or more likely just shredded to dust. Tar pavement from roads was rolled into balls. The tornado was responsible for at least 23 deaths and an unknown number of injuries.

Concrete foundation uplifted:



Remains of an SUV:



Smithville tornado video


No definitely not, I'd rather read these any day over the tiring El Nino feuds, I don't even get involved in those arguments, too toxic, lol.
Enjoy the 'shine today Wkc, tomorrow? Plenty of sunshine in S C IL, though still well below normal, frost again this a.m. out in the country anyway. Hit forecast of low 60s, another morning in the 30s as head toward avg temps end of week (lower mid 70s, 50s). Press around 30.05", 5-15 N winds w/ 20+ gusts, 30s dew pts. Afternoon update added rain chance for weekend, hopefully won't get E and affect Derby.

Morel update - found 30 more Fri morning after unsuccessful Turkey hunt. Starting to go yellow, though still not large and mainly above trees on hillsides, none in valley. One more time this week, plan to take 6yr old grandson on his first hunt, hopefully will be little larger and more abundant, but w/ this colder weather???
Hey Jed; about the leave the office in downtown Tally; hear that just now? Like you said; overcast skies, little rain at the moment, and a big clap of thunder.......................Yikes.
04 27 2:50 pm NNE 36.9 gust 48.6 5.2 4 3.7 - 29.78 - 70.7 76.5 68.7

When the gulf vorticy went by... buoy 42040
Link
897  
WUUS54 KLIX 272137  
SVRLIX  
LAC037-077-125-272200-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0041.150427T2137Z-150427T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
437 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
CENTRAL EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
 
* AT 437 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7  
MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...CLINTON...WILSON...NORWOOD...WAKEFI ELD  
AND SPILLMAN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE  
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE  
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM  
WINDOWS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR  
YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHO WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3100 9125 3100 9102 3077 9099 3075 9155  
3093 9158  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 262DEG 37KT 3086 9148  
 
 
 
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The Nexlab LA Page

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Main Text Page

519  
WUUS52 KMFL 272142  
SVRMFL  
FLC011-272215-  
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0005.150427T2142Z-150427T2215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
542 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM EDT  
 
* AT 542 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES  
BLVD...OR NEAR MIRAMAR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...MIRAMAR...DAVIE AND PLANTATION.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
240. yoboi
Quoting 230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

enough its only the beginnings


Been going on for a couple of weeks had enough...
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 542 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 437 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 527 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
I TOLD ya'll not to let
that #$#% get out over the water-

dagnabbit-
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This might be getting a little repetitive, but hey--does anyone want to argue it's worse than the constant El Nino talks here? ;)

The third of four violent EF5 tornadoes on April 27, 2011 touched down in Monroe County, Alabama at 2042z, entering Itawamba, Marion, and Franklin counties prior to dissipating around 2123z. It tracked for a total of 37 miles and reached a peak width of 1,320 yards, or 0.75mi. The tornado is most well known for impacting the city of Smithville. In the most affected areas, numerous vehicles were thrown large distances, including a large pickup truck that was never found, numerous trees were denuded, and numerous structures were completely leveled. In fact, this tornado was so violent – it is commonly referred to as one of the strongest in the historical database – that it uplifted or removed portions of the concrete foundation from at least two homes. Items within the houses such as furniture and appliances were not seen, suggesting that they were thrown unimaginable distances or more likely just shredded to dust. Tar pavement from roads was rolled into balls. The tornado was responsible for at least 23 deaths and an unknown number of injuries.

Concrete foundation uplifted:



Remains of an SUV:



Smithville tornado video




talking about violent tornadoes any news on the rating from last night tornados ?
244. 882MB
Correct me here, but if I am not wrong I think this will go down as one of the top 10 wettest April in history, in some areas across the Gulf states. There's also more rain in the forecast. At least there's no drought. I really hope that all that has fallen here in April, multiplies and falls in California where they so much desperately need it, to fill those reservoirs . Hopefully El Nino will take care of that, come this winter. FINGERS CROSSED :)

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI

Snipped from the Miami NWS Disco...

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY TUESDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH MOVES EAST AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL SURGE ANOTHER
DEEP SHIELD OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING 2
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS
IT PUSHES ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION. AS IT DOES...IT WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION THAN
THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MAINLY DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO RETURN.
Chewy, put the anemometer down and fix the Hyper-drive,

Wunderblogger's, Jeeez Louise'


248. 882MB


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
552 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

FLC011-272215-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150427T2215Z/
BROWARD FL-
552 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 552 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER INTERSECTION
U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...OR NEAR PEMBROKE PINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...MIRAMAR...DAVIE AND PLANTATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2596 8047 2602 8054 2610 8049 2623 8041
2606 8018 2596 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 223DEG 7KT 2602 8042

$$

AK
249. yoboi
Quoting 230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

enough its only the beginnings


I have had 17.24 inches of rain this month and that's not counting the hail that don't fit in the rain gauge....

edit: 17.41 as it's raining now...
Mobile WFO Rainbow still


706  
WUUS54 KLIX 272158  
SVRLIX  
LAC047-077-121-125-272230-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0042.150427T2158Z-150427T2230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
458 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 458 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PALMETTO TO NEAR KROTZ SPRINGS TO NEAR  
BROUSSARD...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NEW ROADS...ST. FRANCISVILLE...LIVONIA...MARINGOUIN...FORDOCHE...  
ROSEDALE...GROSSE TETE...MORGANZA...LOTTIE...ERWINVILLE...BATCHELOR  
AND RAMAH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3084 9180 3100 9151 3064 9130 3024 9151  
3024 9156 3026 9159 3032 9162 3035 9163  
3036 9165 3039 9162 3044 9164 3050 9170  
3050 9175 3051 9173 3057 9176 3071 9173  
3078 9177 3082 9181  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 248DEG 42KT 3073 9186 3050 9173 3013 9194  
 
 
 
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Quoting 243. Tazmanian:





talking about violent tornadoes any news on the rating from last night tornados ?

Surveys are still ongoing, so I don't have much information, but NWS Fort Worth has confirmed at least 4 EF0 tornadoes in the vicinity of Rio Vista.
Quoting 252. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Surveys are still ongoing, so I don't have much information, but NWS Fort Worth has confirmed at least 4 EF0 tornadoes in the vicinity of Rio Vista.




ok thanks any news about the violent tornadoe that hit grandviwe TX?
254. 882MB
Very well established ULL over Texas, adding to all that severe weather we are having across the gulf states. You can clearly see it pulling that subtropical jet from the Pacific to Mexico, out into the Gulf. Classic ingredient for this stormy pattern.





255. yoboi
Quoting 245. Patrap:

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI




Eastbound and down, loaded up and truckin'
We're gonna do what they say can't be done
We've got a long way to go and a short time to get there
Quoting 253. Tazmanian:





ok thanks any news about the violent tornadoe that hit grandviwe TX?

No tornado hit Grandview; I think you're thinking of Glen Rose. As I said, surveying is still ongoing, but the NWS office in Fort Worth has only found EF0 damage so far.
twelve minutes?

(taps microphone)
Hi all with a late night hello from Europe, after cherishing the wild weather of NOLA today. Proudly I announce that near Frankfurt in Germany we harvested 0,5 inches of rain thanks to an airmass boundary after weeks of very nice but way too dry weather! South and east of us the confrontation of cold air from the northwest and still warm and dry air in the southeast triggered quite a lot of thunderstorms today:



Rotating wall cloud (timelapse) in eastern Germany today:


Here is a video of some minor flooding and hail due to these April thunderstorms.

Here you can see low "Vasco" wrapping up itself in the Mediterranean while low - well, already "Xenophon" or still "Waldemar" or something in between, lol? - is bothering the British Isles:

2147 175 5 SE OKEECHOBEE OKEECHOBEE FL 2719 8076 A TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHEAST OF TAYLOR CREEK IN OKEECHOBEE REPORTED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL AT THEIR RESIDENCE. (MLB)


Golf ball sized hail is pretty big for South Florida, that's thanks to some shear and colder than average mid level temps.
Quoting 244. 882MB:

Correct me here, but if I am not wrong I think this will go down as one of the top 10 wettest April in history, in some areas across the Gulf states. There's also more rain in the forecast. At least there's no drought. I really hope that all that has fallen here in April, multiplies and falls in California where they so much desperately need it, to fill those reservoirs . Hopefully El Nino will take care of that, come this winter. FINGERS CROSSED :)




West Coast of Florida and south Florida needs it though, so this even will be well needed there, interior Central and East Florida doesn't really need any more right now, but rain is always good though unless it causes severe flooding.
Tune to the CBS evening news for the train derailment from the NOLA weather in 1 minute.
Quoting 249. yoboi:



I have had 17.24 inches of rain this month and that's not counting the hail that don't fit in the rain gauge....

edit: 17.41 as it's raining now...


Sounds like record monthly rainfall I would think, geeze, what's the average April precip at the nearest official station where you are?
Quoting Jedkins01:
2147 175 5 SE OKEECHOBEE OKEECHOBEE FL 2719 8076 A TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHEAST OF TAYLOR CREEK IN OKEECHOBEE REPORTED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL AT THEIR RESIDENCE. (MLB)


Golf ball sized hail is pretty big for South Florida, that's thanks to some shear and colder than average mid level temps.
One of my clients uses a commercial hail service, and they were just informed of 2.25" (billiard/tennis ball) hailstones from a particularly nasty cell near Lake Placid. 'Twill be interesting to see whether those radar reports are confirmed...
Link
My latest forecast.
Quoting 234. weathermanwannabe:

Hey Jed; about the leave the office in downtown Tally; hear that just now? Like you said; overcast skies, little rain at the moment, and a big clap of thunder.......................Yikes.


Yeah the light rain shield is odd, I guess it's some sheet lightning in old anvil tops from the power convection over Louisiana earlier, since this rain in the panhandle is what's known as "convective debris" rain. It seems like stratiform rain, but this kind of rain shield forms beneath the expanded anvil of a deep convective system which explains the lightning. If it was stratiform clouds, there wouldn't be lightning, since they luck too much in vertical motion for lightning.
Quoting 253. Tazmanian:





ok thanks any news about the violent tornadoe that hit grandviwe TX?


Softball size hail caused a lot of damage to cars and to the roofs of buildings .. around Grandview also ..

Many of those who were lucky enough to be missed by the tornado .. had property damaged by the large hail .. pictures last night of the ground covered looked like it had snowed ..
Quoting 260. Jedkins01:

2147 175 5 SE OKEECHOBEE OKEECHOBEE FL 2719 8076 A TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHEAST OF TAYLOR CREEK IN OKEECHOBEE REPORTED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL AT THEIR RESIDENCE. (MLB)


Golf ball sized hail is pretty big for South Florida, that's thanks to some shear and colder than average mid level temps.
I have seen golf ball-sized hail (or larger) twice during my many years of living in West Central Florida. Both times it happened in late April, ironically enough. My guess is that this happens because at this time of year we can get just enough jet stream instability this far south, combined with surface temps approaching summertime levels and under just the right circumstances, unusually cold air aloft. If a severe storm or especially a supercell develops then bam, you get large hail in Florida. I remember hearing reports of baseball-sized hail happening in the Orlando area on more than one occasion, also during the Spring season.



we're gonna need a bigger blog'

Quoting 268. FLWaterFront:

I have seen golf ball-sized hail (or larger) twice during my many years of living in West Central Florida. Both times it happened in late April, ironically enough. My guess is that this happens because at this time of year we can get just enough jet stream instability this far south, combined with surface temps approaching summertime levels and under just the right circumstances, unusually cold air aloft. If a severe storm or especially a supercell develops then bam, you get large hail in Florida. I remember hearing reports of baseball-sized hail happening in the Orlando area on more than one occasion, also during the Spring season.


upper air temperature like you said has to be within just a few degrees for this to happen .. and think there is only a few weeks each year that it will happen .. either it's too cold to get the TS needed or the middle air temperature is warm enough to melt any hail caught in the updraft .. never saw hail when I lived there ..
Quoting 266. Jedkins01:



Yeah the light rain shield is odd, I guess it's some sheet lightning in old anvil tops from the power convection over Louisiana earlier, since this rain in the panhandle is what's known as "convective debris" rain. It seems like stratiform rain, but this kind of rain shield forms beneath the expanded anvil of a deep convective system which explains the lightning. If it was stratiform clouds, there wouldn't be lightning, since they luck too much in vertical motion for lightning.
What was over Louisiana earlier is now over the North Central Gulf and heading inexorably toward somewhere on the Florida West Coast. The long range radar out of Tallahassee shows a large comma-like echo far out over the Gulf waters that is heading east. This is one of those times when the lack of surface-based analyses far out over the Gulf produces something of a "blind spot" for adequate up-to-the-minute forecasting or warning for potential severe weather on the Florida west coast, as I have mentioned in the past. The loop current undoubtedly also figures into the mix to some extent but overall it is just an unknown whether or if there is or will be a significant severe Wx threat for the Florida peninsula later tonight from that activity presently over the Gulf.
273. yoboi
Quoting 263. Jedkins01:



Sounds like record monthly rainfall I would think, geeze, what's the average April precip at the nearest official station where you are?


Jed I am going by my PWS the official would probably be in Lake Charles over 30 miles away....Yes the wettest I have ever seen...Had 1 week with over 10 inches of rain...

Edit: also had 3 days this month with hail quarter size and larger don't know how to convert hail to rainfall..
Quoting 271. FLWaterFront:

What was over Louisiana earlier is now over the North Central Gulf and heading inexorably toward somewhere on the Florida West Coast. The long range radar out of Tallahassee shows a large comma-like echo far out over the Gulf waters that is heading east. This is one of those times when the lack of surface-based analyses far out over the Gulf produces something of a "blind spot" for adequate up-to-the-minute forecasting or warning for potential severe weather on the Florida west coast, as I have mentioned in the past. The loop current undoubtedly also figures into the mix to some extent but overall it is just an unknown whether or if there is or will be a significant severe Wx threat for the Florida peninsula later tonight from that activity presently over the Gulf.


that storm in the gulf had a pretty good rotation to it but looks like its moderated some .. but may only be cycling like it did last night across Texas ..
536  
WUUS54 KSJT 272311  
SVRSJT  
TXC049-280000-  
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0105.150427T2311Z-150428T0000Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
611 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 609 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNWOOD...  
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO  
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BROWNWOOD AROUND 625 PM CDT.  
EARLY AND CAMP BOWIE AROUND 635 PM CDT.  
ZEPHYR AROUND 700 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE  
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM  
WINDOWS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3169 9868 3169 9875 3161 9877 3159 9880  
3166 9913 3178 9913 3181 9873 3174 9868  
3170 9867  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 277DEG 12KT 3172 9905  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
HUBER  
 
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Second BBC's weather video from today, covering not only the unseasonal thunderstorms in the earthquake region of Nepal but also the freak storm which hit Pakistan yesterday with a high death toll (see post #5).

Weather hampers quake relief efforts
BBC weather video, 27 April 2015 Last updated at 18:02
As the death toll continues to rise, heavy rain and fog disrupt rescue work in earthquake stricken Nepal. Rain and further aftershocks have raised concerns of more landslides and avalanches, making access to remote villages even more difficult.
Jay Wynne reports for Global on BBC World News.


(BTW, WU's weather news haven't mentioned neither this recent deadly storm in Pakistan nor the national disaster storm in Bihar/India last week yet, as far as I could see.)
Quoting 276. barbamz:

Second BBC's weather video from today, covering not only the unseasonal thunderstorms in the earthquake region of Nepal but also the freak storm which hit Pakistan yesterday with a high death toll (see post #5).

Weather hampers quake relief efforts
BBC weather video, 27 April 2015 Last updated at 18:02
As the death toll continues to rise, heavy rain and fog disrupt rescue work in earthquake stricken Nepal. Rain and further aftershocks have raised concerns of more landslides and avalanches, making access to remote villages even more difficult.
Jay Wynne reports for Global on BBC World News.


(BTW, WU's weather news haven't mentioned neither this recent deadly storm in Pakistan nor the national disaster storm in Bihar/India last week yet, as far as I could see.)



2015

The Year that Earth Atmo 2.0 early in the Anthropocene Strikes Back

A Long time ago,

on a Planet far, far away,

a day came...,a day that was different globally there,

One terra formed ....by the Humans


Coming down hard in Lake Worth, Fl. Miami NWS hit this on the head.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
622 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS TSTORM COVERAGE EAST COAST
METRO. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ONGOING. STAY TUNED TO
WARNINGS/STATEMENTS ISSUED. /GREGORIA
Link
Link to me and friend Brant podcast for the severe weather in the south.
Quoting 264. Neapolitan:

One of my clients uses a commercial hail service, and they were just informed of 2.25" (billiard/tennis ball) hailstones from a particularly nasty cell near Lake Placid. 'Twill be interesting to see whether those radar reports are confirmed...



Wow, that would be impressive if that verified. Hail that size isn't too common in south Florida, although if it's going to happen, this would be the time of year.
Quoting 273. yoboi:



Jed I am going by my PWS the official would probably be in Lake Charles over 30 miles away....Yes the wettest I have ever seen...Had 1 week with over 10 inches of rain...

Edit: also had 3 days this month with hail quarter size and larger don't know how to convert hail to rainfall..


Yeah you can't really estimate hail in water equivalent, but because it's ice, it probably won't add up to that much liquid water. Regardless though, that's a crazy amount of rain, it must be insanely water logged in that area.
Quoting 277. Patrap:


2015
The Year that Earth Atmo 2.0 early in the Anthropocene Strikes Back
...

Sure, Pat. And world wide weather coverage should ramp up on sites dedicated to this subject. F.e. Reuters and The Guardian are quite good to catch freak weather events you barely would notice on the internet otherwise; BBC is quite good as well.
At 2319z (7:19pm EDT; 6:19pm CDT) on April 27, 2011, the final of four EF5 tornadoes began in Dekalb County, Alabama, tracking into Dade County, Georgia prior to dissipating at 2356z. In all, the tornado tracked for 36.63 miles and reached a maximum width of 1,320yd, or 3/4mi wide. It is most well-known for the damage it caused to the city of Rainsville, Alabama, where several businesses and homes were swept away, with debris thrown well upstream. At one home, a pick-up truck was tossed over 250 yards and a 800-pound safe was thrown 600 feet into a wooded area. At another, a portion of the concrete foundation was lifted up. Numerous trees were denuded, and pockets of ground scouring were observed as well. The tornado killed 25 people and injured many more.

A stone-built home was obliterated, with a portion of its foundation uplifted:



The remains of a school bus:



After writing these posts, I think I can safely say I don't ever want to be in an EF5 tornado. ;)
Quoting 282. barbamz:


Sure, Pat. And world wide weather coverage should ramp up on sites dedicated to this subject. F.e. Reuters and The Guardian are quite good to catch freak weather events you barely would notice on the internet otherwise; BBC is quite good as well.


Indeed, I find myself watching more reports from Europe thru you .

I vote Barbamz for a Wu Peabody for Her Euro contribution.

You spend a lot of work and time posting those specific links and articles.

And we appreciate them greatly.
285. yoboi
Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



Yeah you can't really estimate hail in water equivalent, but because it's ice, it probably won't add up to that much liquid water. Regardless though, that's a crazy amount of rain, it must be insanely water logged in that area.


Yeah I have been researching and researching how to convert hail to rainfall and could not find anything reliable....Do you know of anything; scientific studies that has any conversion???
Okay, brace up now again as we have inbound Boomers tracking Ne and closing.


Quoting 268. FLWaterFront:

I have seen golf ball-sized hail (or larger) twice during my many years of living in West Central Florida. Both times it happened in late April, ironically enough. My guess is that this happens because at this time of year we can get just enough jet stream instability this far south, combined with surface temps approaching summertime levels and under just the right circumstances, unusually cold air aloft. If a severe storm or especially a supercell develops then bam, you get large hail in Florida. I remember hearing reports of baseball-sized hail happening in the Orlando area on more than one occasion, also during the Spring season.


Yeah the best ingredients for large hail is cold air aloft and usually my level dry air along with strong wind shear, this is because the shear is needed to sustain the updrafts for a longer duration, and the cold dry air allows for hail to maintain as a solid on it's way back down as well as the growth process.

Some meteorologists make the mistake of saying that it's strong updrafts, how tall a thunderstorm is, and how unstable it is. That may be true in the plains since it's always cold aloft during the thunderstorm season there, but in places like Florida, cold temps aloft and shear occur earlier in the year and start to fade into the summer. That's why thunderstorms in the summer regularly reach tops of 40,000-50,000 ft with very strong updrafts but don't produce much hail.

If it was simply based on storm height, updraft strength, and instability, then Florida would be the hail capital, lol which it obviously isn't. The best proven analog for updraft strength and instability is the amount of lightning, there is a direct correlation between lightning strike density and instability resulting in strong updrafts.

However, hail needs strong updrafts that persist in the same location for a given volume of droplets, since it takes time for hail to grow. This can only be done by strong vertical shear, ideally shear that results in rotating supercells which allow for continuous updrafts being maintained in the same quadrant of the thunderstorm. That along with colder and drier air above a very warm and moist surface is what is needed for large hail.
Quoting 166. vis0:


Ya took da werds right out of my mouse...being i'm holding a 128GB storage chip that is holding 3 Encyclopedias.

Though on my blog since 2013 i've stated when to watch for 2 or 3 Niños types"  in a 4 to 5 yr period and why... the difference is i used my nutty science of Galacsics. EXCELLENT COMMENT Webberweather.

Please stay tuned to NOAA
radio and remember my nutty warning to be on the look out for weather changing 2 times stronger, faster, reoccurring, turning than is expected when one reefers to historical records, not just due to aGw (as strong storms have occurred before aGW and will become worse but not this quickly...though in a decade or two nature by herself will really tap into aGW's pool) but for a reason regular members know and i only post of on my blog. It worries me as last night (last Dr. Masters blog and on twitter) some people where saying since Texas already had severe a day or so ago it would be hard to re-fire strong storms and post graphs and radars showing there is no activity but remember nature has deep sleeves and what up those sleeves...???. Just notice since 2009/10 with so much improvements which are really good improvements man is having a harder time predicting sudden changes.

On a side dish of fries (maybe popcorn) note.
For those looking for "Ana" just remember if Ana asks "Come Yami usted?" do not say your name, instead say "Si, Como yami con arroz, pollo y abichuelas rosadas.(Do you eat ~yams...yes i eat ~yams with rice, chicken and pink beans.)



Thanks. Speaking of which, I've tried to identify these El Nino "flavors" myself & have discovered that our natural tendency to categorize objects of our attention (intentional or not) is an attempt to simplify our surrounding world & avoid dealing with each one as an individual. The behavior of individual El Nino events varies dramatically in space & time and from what I've derived, is not necessarily indicative nor consistent w/ current literature largely binning them into 2 "hard" categories (Traditional & Modoki), but rather El Ninos express themselves in non-linear continuum, which are interdependent on the seasonal cycle, their intensity, longevity, & the background PDO state, etc. although my simplistic methodology to bin Ninos into 3 categories is more efficient than this aforementioned more popular recognition of El Ninos as EP (East Pacific)/Canoncial or Modoki only, however, one must also acknowledge, take into account, & weigh shrinking sample size for increased stratification....


If you recall a post I made here several weeks ago, I talked about Trenberth et al's TNI & how the onset of El Ninos vary in accordance w/ PDO phase. This El Nino emergence in the last 2 years, beginning primarily in the central Pacific & progressing eastward w/ increasing time is a reversion back to the classical +PDO onset we observed from 1976-77 thru 2002 & may hint @ the possibility that we're seeing a multidecadal flip in the PDO to its warm phase. Again, the last event to initiate in the central Pacific was in 2002 (may I remind you, this happened well in advance of the wintertime +PDO stint in the 2002-03 winter), which occurred at the end of the last warm PDO era...

JFMA Eq Pacific Monthly SSTs (2014 top, 2015 bottom)




Here are the monthly SST animations from the Australian BOM (they probably used OISSTv2 considering their monthly SST analysis of El Nino events begins in 1982-82), you can see how the El Ninos from 1982-83 thru 2002-03 initiated in the central Pacific in concert w/ the +PDO regime... This EN initiation behavior eventually inverted in 2006-07 & 2009-10 w/ the multidecadal -PDO flip in the mid-late 2000s, however interestingly enough, as aforementioned, in the last 2 years it has flipped yet again...













For some time, I was not a proponent nor did I understand the physical mechanisms (nor where to find them) in regards to the PDO & individual ENSO events, however, it's become very clear to me that the multidecadal PDO phase has a substantial influence on the lag/leads of the TNI & the initiation of El Ninos, and the longevity of El Ninos...

From the JISAO dataset, I found that the 7 highest & 8 of the top 10 +PDO winters (DJF) since 1900 occurred in concert w/ multi-year El Ninos/+ENSO events (italicized/bold)...

2014-15 +2.40
1940-41 +2.06
2002-03 +1.98
1986-87 +1.80
1935-36 +1.77
1939-40 +1.76
1905-06 +1.60
1983-84 +1.47
1976-77 +1.33
1926-27 +1.29

Looking at the NCDC data the top 4 +PDO winters & 8 of the top 10 since 1854 occurred during multi-yr +ENSO events/El Ninos

1940-41 +2.81
1941-42 +2.15
2014-15 +1.73
1986-87 +1.63
1983-84 +1.57
1907-08 +1.56
1935-36 +1.52
1939-40 +1.51
1884-85 +1.44
1976-77 +1.38

Even though the actual difference in PDO means between all El Ninos and multi-year +ENSO/El Ninos was only .142, a two sided t-test w/ 37 df, between the winter PDO values in the Multi-Year +ENSO/El Nino years (n=38) & all El Ninos (n=42) revealed a p-value of .0027 & t-score of 3.2215, which is "very statistically significant" & of course the sample sizes are large enough to be analyzed, & they easily exceed the general threshold of 30 for a "normal" distribution. The same test for strictly multi-year El Ninos only vs all El Ninos revealed slightly less statistical significance...


BTW, even though the 1884-86 comparison may seem crazy given the concerns over data retrieval techniques, coverage, sampling, etc. if you look @ the global oceanic area sampling coverage, 1883-86 actually sits within a mini-peak in observations, w/ a peak at just over 20% coverage, which is less than half of current coverage (at least through 2007, & I'm sure this percentage has increased @ least slightly since then), however it's comparable to what's observed near the start of NOAA ESRL's operational composite datasets (that begin in January 1948) & the observational network still easily surpasses World War I & II. Thus, this offers more support than should be usually given for the 19th & 20th century reanalysis years, that these are actually legitimate analogs...



Here are the # of monthly 2x2 degree observations over the North Pacific during 1883-85. There were generally <5 ship reports on average over this entire period around/north of 40N except along the immediate west coast of North America
Quoting 285. yoboi:



Yeah I have been researching and researching how to convert hail to rainfall and could not find anything reliable....Do you know of anything; scientific studies that has any conversion???


Honestly there really isn't, the only thing you could do is melt the amount of hail that could fit in the cone of your gauge, but even then, hail bounces, and also the evaporation from the melting process would also lead to more error.

From what I know, there really isn't any accurate scientific way to determine the liquid equivalent accurately from hail. Given that hail is ice, it doesn't add up to nearly the amount of water as the heavy rain it is mixed in with though, and add that to the relatively short duration and localization of hail and I don't think it's too big of a deal.

Good question though lol, but yeah, I don't think there is any reasonable way to measure it consistently. I suppose maybe rain gauge that measures by weighing a collected volume of water since ice density can be converted. However, I'm not aware of any practical rain gauges that measure rain by weight.
I find it hard to believe there wasn't wind damage of some sort in my parish (Ascension) with today's storms. My anemometer was out of batteries at that moment, but the winds couldn't have been any less than 55 kt this morning, and it looked like a couple gusts were approaching or exceeding minimal hurricane force (64 kt). I was tempted to call the NWS, but I had no actual evidence there was any tree/power line damage, being confined to this apartment.

Either way, I have (likely false) high hopes for this hurricane season given the continued warm Gulf of Mexico. It's things like this morning's storm that I am expecting to see over the summer, only far more sustained. Let's see if we can get that.
Quoting 284. Patrap:


Indeed, I find myself watching more reports from Europe thru you .
I vote Barbamz for a Wu Peabody for Her Euro contribution.
You spend a lot of work and time posting those specific links and articles.
And we appreciate them greatly.

Thanks, Pat. What's the meaning of "Peabody", lol? I'm lost:
Peabody Energy Around The World: Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) is the world's largest private-sector coal company and a global leader in sustainable mining and clean coal solutions. The company serves metallurgical and thermal coal customers in more than 25 countries on six continents.

And well, European weather is one thing, and I'm glad that I can share my own exploration of the weather in my own continent with you (would be quite boring otherwise!). The other thing is the coverage of world wide remarkable weather. I'm very well aware that this blog of our doc (and Bob Henson) cannot cover every single decent or freak weather event (the more as they occur more often), but whole WU should spend a little more attention if they really want to go global (but maybe they don't want to and rather concentrate on US weather and their customers in the US?).

Extreme weather already on increase due to climate change, study finds
Researchers say heatwaves that previously occurred once every three years are now happening every 200 days thanks to global warming
The Guardian, Monday 27 April 2015 16.03 BST
Extreme heatwaves and heavy rain storms are already happening with increasing regularity worldwide because of manmade climate change, according to new research.
Global warming over the last century means heat extremes that previously only occurred once every 1,000 days are happening four to five times more often, the study published in Nature Climate Change said ...

More see link above.
Jedkins I've wondered about hailstorm water content when it covers the ground enough to whiten it--and in exceptional situations accumulates to depths in feet.
Has Miami ever before had their hottest day of the year in April? I know Philadelphia, New York City, Providence RI and Worcester MA did in 1976.
Dakster if you are on I'd like your opinion of the video in comment 681 of my blog. All others are welcome to comment also.
KoritheMan Storm Nirvana dream....







Quoting 271. FLWaterFront:

What was over Louisiana earlier is now over the North Central Gulf and heading inexorably toward somewhere on the Florida West Coast. The long range radar out of Tallahassee shows a large comma-like echo far out over the Gulf waters that is heading east. This is one of those times when the lack of surface-based analyses far out over the Gulf produces something of a "blind spot" for adequate up-to-the-minute forecasting or warning for potential severe weather on the Florida west coast, as I have mentioned in the past. The loop current undoubtedly also figures into the mix to some extent but overall it is just an unknown whether or if there is or will be a significant severe Wx threat for the Florida peninsula later tonight from that activity presently over the Gulf.


You're right, the blind spot does lead to forecasting problems, and I read a paper once by the SPC that admitted tat forecast severe weather events approaching Florida from the gulf is very difficult due the fact that convection behaves differently over water than land, as well as the transition from water to land and vice versa. Even more importantly is the lack of data available for monitoring convective systems in the gulf. The SPC basically is blind with gulf events except for a few buoys. I wish I could find the paper but it did helpfully explain why the SPC tends to lean conservative with events in this area, and usually they will make late changes to forecast as the event draws near. The paper definitely said that forecasting has to be approached carefully in the area for the reasons I mentioned above.

With that said though, I don't think tonight will be significant severe event for the west coast of Florida, as I said earlier in the blog to Scott, this convective complex is moving faster than it's upper level support, so the energy that generated it is still left behind in Louisiana and that energy won't reach Florida until tomorrow. For those reasons I expected the complex to slowly weaken with time, and it is. Because it was so strong though, it should at least bring some widespread rain to the area tonight before much arrives tomorrow and again on Wednesday.

All in all, model guidance isn't showing anything that has me really worried. There should be enough upper support, shear, and instability for a risk of a few severe thunderstorms down there over the course of this system, but I don't think it will be a major event based on model guidance.
Quoting 271. FLWaterFront:

What was over Louisiana earlier is now over the North Central Gulf and heading inexorably toward somewhere on the Florida West Coast. ... The loop current undoubtedly also figures into the mix to some extent but overall it is just an unknown whether or if there is or will be a significant severe Wx threat for the Florida peninsula later tonight from that activity presently over the Gulf.
Sure looks like the core of that heavy-duty weather out in the Gulf is headed straight for the Tampa Bay area. Should get interesting in a few hours -- maybe about 9pm Eastern -- but it may weaken considerably after sunset.

Quoting 288. Webberweather53:






The hybrid El Nino stuff (top middle image) is a configuration I actually never really thought to categorize or look into.

I guess even old guys can learn new tricks... ;)
What happened to sar? It's been like 2 weeks since he posted on here. I know he would've posted about super outbreak today.
Does the new orleans airport still have a ground stop?
Quoting 300. TimTheWxMan:

What happened to sar? It's been like 2 weeks since he posted on here. I know he would've posted about super outbreak today.

I miss him too. Would love to see him back! But maybe it's his own decision to stay away from NUWU :-(
303. yoboi
Quoting 289. Jedkins01:



Honestly there really isn't, the only thing you could do is melt the amount of hail that could fit in the cone of your gauge, but even then, hail bounces, and also the evaporation from the melting process would also lead to more error.

From what I know, there really isn't any accurate scientific way to determine the liquid equivalent accurately from hail. Given that hail is ice, it doesn't add up to nearly the amount of water as the heavy rain it is mixed in with though, and add that to the relatively short duration and localization of hail and I don't think it's too big of a deal.

Good question though lol, but yeah, I don't think there is any reasonable way to measure it consistently. I suppose maybe rain gauge that measures by weighing a collected volume of water since ice density can be converted. However, I'm not aware of any practical rain gauges that measure rain by weight.


Thanks jed...I had a cell that moved over this afternoon only measured a little over a tenth of an inch of rain because it was almost all hail....going by the rate and duration would have thought I had near an inch of rain..but like I said it was almost all hail coming down..
Round 2 April 27, 2015



Quoting 301. TimTheWxMan:

Does the new orleans airport still have a ground stop?



MSY is back Full power, lotsa cancellations and delays, esp with more inbound weather,
Quoting 292. BaltimoreBrian:

Jedkins I've wondered about hailstorm water content when it covers the ground enough to whiten it--and in exceptional situations accumulates to depths in feet.

That's an interesting question, and I'm not sure if this is a correct answer, I'd have to do some research, but I think that the volume of hail is related to the the depth of cold dry aloft aloft. I know in Texas yesterday where there major hail accumulation in some areas, they had strong vertical shear strong upper divergence, and a shallow layer of very warm and very moist air below a large layer of very cold and dry air. The dry air allows a greater amount of water vapor or droplets that aren't already frozen and becoming lofted as hail stones to evaporate which causes even more cooling, which of courses steepens the lapse rate and helps maintain or boost updraft velocity.

Again I could be wrong, but I think the solution for large volumes of hail is an increasing colder and drier layer with depth above a very warm and moist shallow layer. Vertical shear and strong upper support from the upper low of course plays a part as well.
Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



Yeah you can't really estimate hail in water equivalent, but because it's ice, it probably won't add up to that much liquid water. Regardless though, that's a crazy amount of rain, it must be insanely water logged in that area.
I would think getting a pretty good estimate shouldn't be that hard -- collect a bucket-full of hail, calculate the actual ice volume based on the formulas for the volume of a collection of spheres compared to a solid (accounting for the air space between spheres) then the ice-to-water volume conversion. For very irregular shapes it will be more erratic, but maybe not so much different. (Edit) Looks like maximum volume of packed spheres would be a bit less than 3/4 of the solid in the same space, so maybe if you took 2/3 of somewhat irregular hailstone volume, then .9 as the conversion of volume of ice to water, a cubic foot of hailstones ought to be about .6 cubic feet of water, or about 3.9 gallons.
Quoting 305. Patrap:




MSY is back Full power, lotsa cancellations and delays, esp with more inbound weather,



Ah. I remember the cincinnati airport having a ground stop for an hour due to falling debris from the henryville tornado.

Quoting 300. TimTheWxMan:

What happened to sar? It's been like 2 weeks since he posted on here. I know he would've posted about super outbreak today.
He was permabanned. I do not know why, but he WU mailed me about it.
310. beell
Quoting 287. Jedkins01:



Yeah the best ingredients for large hail is cold air aloft and usually my level dry air along with strong wind shear, this is because the shear is needed to sustain the updrafts for a longer duration, and the cold dry air allows for hail to maintain as a solid on it's way back down as well as the growth process.

Some meteorologists make the mistake of saying that it's strong updrafts, how tall a thunderstorm is, and how unstable it is. That may be true in the plains since it's always cold aloft during the thunderstorm season there, but in places like Florida, cold temps aloft and shear occur earlier in the year and start to fade into the summer. That's why thunderstorms in the summer regularly reach tops of 40,000-50,000 ft with very strong updrafts but don't produce much hail.

If it was simply based on storm height, updraft strength, and instability, then Florida would be the hail capital, lol which it obviously isn't. The best proven analog for updraft strength and instability is the amount of lightning, there is a direct correlation between lightning strike density and instability resulting in strong updrafts.

However, hail needs strong updrafts that persist in the same location for a given volume of droplets, since it takes time for hail to grow. This can only be done by strong vertical shear, ideally shear that results in rotating supercells which allow for continuous updrafts being maintained in the same quadrant of the thunderstorm. That along with colder and drier air above a very warm and moist surface is what is needed for large hail.


Might make a mention of lapse rates-which can be on the poor side (not steep) in tropical Florida. If a parcel rises moist adiabatic, it will be the same temperature as the environment and not much buoyancy. After parcel saturation, If the actual lapse rate in a layer(s) is greater than moist adiabatic-a positive contribution to CAPE (updraft strength).
Tops to 69K

oooofh'

Quoting 299. KoritheMan:


The hybrid El Nino stuff (top middle image) is a configuration I actually never really thought to categorize or look into.

I guess even old guys can learn new tricks... ;)



Yeah, I became fed up w/ trying to sort between the Traditional & Modoki types, since there was a large group of NINOs that I saw binned in both categories (which now make up this "hybrid" type) in literature based on EOFs, 2 dimensional indices, etc, & I also realized how much variance b/t individual events was noted each type (astronomical)... This was an attempt to limit this variance while using a simple method to further sort these events (highest SSTs in DJF outside NINO 1-2, yet still >0=hybrid, Modoki=-anomalies in the NINO 1-2 (& usually the far west Pac too), while also acknowledging the multitude of limitations in the first statement in that comment. Obviously this isn't not perfect, nor is a purely SST based method necessarily way I'd like this to be done, but it's better than nothing & what we have now w/ literature primarily concerned with only 2 types of El Nino... However, I'm to the point now where I realize, El Nino is a constantly moving target & again the placement of the highest SSTs is largely interdependent on the seasonal cycle, the intensity & longevity of the El Nino, PDO, etc... making it virtually futile make this sort of purely SST-based categorization because El Ninos can vary quite rapidly (relatively speaking) in space/time. There are occasions where the sea surface isn't necessarily an extremely accurate reflection of the atmospheric/extratropical response, which we're most concerned about, especially around the boreal winter solstice when ENSO tends to peak...

I've had these sort of discussions w/ Dr. Ventrice on social media & he completely agrees w/ the above statement(s).
Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



Yeah you can't really estimate hail in water equivalent, but because it's ice, it probably won't add up to that much liquid water. Regardless though, that's a crazy amount of rain, it must be insanely water logged in that area.

Measure it the same way my PWS and others around me do with snow: using a heated rain gauge. It melts the snow/graupel/hail and registers in 1/100 in. increments.
Were seeing Lightning from N to South from the Sw and closing fast.



555  
WUUS54 KLIX 280025  
SVRLIX  
LAC051-057-109-280100-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0046.150428T0025Z-150428T0100Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
725 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EASTERN TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT  
 
* AT 724 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7  
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOLDEN MEADOW...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
GALLIANO...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
GALLIANO...GOLDEN MEADOW...LEEVILLE AND GRAND ISLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR  
YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHO WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2922 9029 2928 9035 2931 9034 2922 9041  
2940 9047 2948 8998 2941 9003 2928 8993  
2936 9007 2928 8996 2927 8995 2926 8995  
2922 9003 2925 8999 2925 9005 2933 9010  
2924 9011 2923 9006 2922 9004  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 263DEG 36KT 2932 9038  
 
 
 
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Quoting 314. Patrap:

Were seeing Lightning from N to South from the Sw and closing fast.


Radar starting to light up again as we get a renewed round of upper divergence associated with the southern stream upper cyclone.
New Orleans, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Quoting 316. KoritheMan:


Radar starting to light up again as we get a renewed round of upper divergence associated with the southern stream upper cyclone.



Its raining hard too.

: P

The 0z Slidell upper air sounding should be interesting. Should be available shortly.
Really, wow...NYC? Find that amazing. Wasn't the NYC blackout in 1976? I remember it being very hot watching Bill Beutel and Channel 7 Eyewitness News Team... That is an incredible statistic.

Quoting 293. BaltimoreBrian:

Has Miami ever before had their hottest day of the year in April? I know Philadelphia, New York City, Providence RI and Worcester MA did in 1976.
Quoting KoritheMan:

He was permabanned. I do not know why, but he WU mailed me about it.


Sorry to learn that.
Record Report

Statement as of 04:24 PM CDT on April 27, 2015

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at New Orleans...

a record rainfall of 1.74 inches was set at New Orleans today. This
breaks the old record of 1.24 set in 1949.
Meanwhile the earlier MCS is old news and weakening as it approaches Fl. 
Quoting 318. Patrap:



Its raining hard too.

: P



Quoting 309. KoritheMan:
He was permabanned. I do not know why, but he WU mailed me about it.

Thanks! I've noticed he isn't listed as a member anymore. He wasn't happy with the end of Classic WU (to say the least) - that's the last I've noticed. Nevertheless, SAR has contributed a lot of life experience and interesting personal opinion to this blog - so thanks to him, and I'm sad that he isn't in here any longer!
Good night with this for tonight from Germany.
Glad it wasn't here yesterday as Jazz Fest had Tens of Thousands for Jimmy Buffet, Tony Bennet & Lady Ga-Ga, Irma Thomas, Pitbull.

Who is American remembers that date; That's because today is four years of the Super Tornado Outbreak of 2011. #RIP348people

April 27th, 2011 satellite image.


Phil Campbell, Alabama.



Tuscaloosa, Alabama.


Cullman, Alabama.


Smithville, Mississippi.


Rainsville, Alabama.


etc...
Please, think for 1 minute about this people.

We're in the split flow groove 5 by 5

Thus da Flood Watch



Quoting 320. HaoleboySurfEC:

Really, wow...NYC? Find that amazing. Wasn't the NYC blackout in 1976? I remember it being very hot watching Bill Beutel and Channel 7 Eyewitness News Team... That is an incredible statistic.


Central Park was 96 on April 18, 1976, Easter Sunday, and also had the hottest reading in the USA that date. Philadelphia had their hottest day of the year the same date. Providence RI was 99 on April 19 and Boston was 94, the date of the Boston Marathon. Logan airport cooled to 66 with a seabreeze by the time the fastest runner finished the race.

The NYC blackout was in July 1977, triggered by thunderstorms during one of the worst heatwaves NYC has ever seen. Central Park reached 104 F, their second hottest day on record. LaGuardia Airport reached 107 F, the hottest reading ever inside New York City limits.
...thats no Moon, itsa Space station..

Quick, turn us around Chewie! .... REooooowwwwwrrrrrrooooorrr' !!!



330. 882MB
Looks like this interesting cluster of intense thunderstorms in southern LA means more severe weather for tomorrow AM, hopefully it stays offshore and doesn't cause damage like earlier today's wake low, which you saw what it caused in the NOLA area. GFS has this crossing the whole Gulf, probably an MCS system in the making.







The Upper Level Cyclone is stuck in neutral.

That cant be good.


Quoting 310. beell:



Might make a mention of lapse rates-which can be on the poor side (not steep) in tropical Florida. If a parcel rises moist adiabatic, it will be the same temperature as the environment and not much buoyancy. After parcel saturation, If the actual lapse rate in a layer(s) is greater than moist adiabatic-a positive contribution to CAPE (updraft strength).


Yeah definitely lapse rates become less steep in the summer rainy season, the sign of a tropical airmass, I used the wording cold air aloft instead of steep lapse rates because it's a little easier for others to understand that aren't familiar with what lapse rate means.

That's one of the reasons hurricanes lack in lightning activity, the column is saturated and with lapse rates not very steep in a warm air mass with depth, updraft speeds aren't very fast. That and the widespread precip and overworked environment from continued convection reduces CAPE.

Massive amounts if latent heat release in a saturated environment is great for forming warm core cyclones, but not so great if you're hoping to see large hail, long tracked tornadoes, and a massive lightning show, lol.
Quoting 313. oldnewmex:


Measure it the same way my PWS and others around me do with snow: using a heated rain gauge. It melts the snow/graupel/hail and registers in 1/100 in. increments.


I did mention earlier that using a gauge with a heater works, but accuracy is still questionable because hail bounces a lot, and I would think much of the hail that would fall into the funnel of a gauge would just bounce out.

It's certainly better than nothing though.
I like having 'community activity' scroll again on an alternative link for wunderground that CloudyInTheWest sent me. It's nice to see when Jedkins and Patrap post.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Quoting 296. Jedkins01:



You're right, the blind spot does lead to forecasting problems, and I read a paper once by the SPC that admitted tat forecast severe weather events approaching Florida from the gulf is very difficult due the fact that convection behaves differently over water than land, as well as the transition from water to land and vice versa. Even more importantly is the lack of data available for monitoring convective systems in the gulf. The SPC basically is blind with gulf events except for a few buoys. I wish I could find the paper but it did helpfully explain why the SPC tends to lean conservative with events in this area, and usually they will make late changes to forecast as the event draws near. The paper definitely said that forecasting has to be approached carefully in the area for the reasons I mentioned above.

With that said though, I don't think tonight will be significant severe event for the west coast of Florida, as I said earlier in the blog to Scott, this convective complex is moving faster than it's upper level support, so the energy that generated it is still left behind in Louisiana and that energy won't reach Florida until tomorrow. For those reasons I expected the complex to slowly weaken with time, and it is. Because it was so strong though, it should at least bring some widespread rain to the area tonight before much arrives tomorrow and again on Wednesday.

All in all, model guidance isn't showing anything that has me really worried. There should be enough upper support, shear, and instability for a risk of a few severe thunderstorms down there over the course of this system, but I don't think it will be a major event based on model guidance.
It has weakened, just as you predicted. The local TV mets were basically saying they expected the same thing to happen. One said that "in (his) gut" this MCS would weaken before reaching the west coast of FL, even though his own computer model was suggesting otherwise.

All this points to the same thing you and I have been saying, which is that predicting severe weather systems moving into Florida from the Gulf is tricky, at best. And yes, the overall setup for today, tomorrow and tomorrow night into Wednesday.. at present at least.. does lean more toward a persistent soaking rain event with some thunder rather than a Severe Wx event over most of Florida. Then again, one can never be sure.

And yes the SPC is almost always very conservative with these setups, almost never showing a moderate or greater outlook for severe weather outbreaks in their convective outlooks for the Florida peninsula, largely because of the unknowns and the blind spot provided by the vast and deep Gulf of Mexico. I do recall just one time when they were the opposite, almost too aggressive with their warnings (if that is possible) and that was for the infamous March of 1993 "Superstorm event." I distinctly remember the NWS warning us here that there was "a high probability of large tornadoes..." affecting the Florida West Coast. I had never, ever heard them use that terminology before, or since. As it was, most of the tornadoes that did occur with the highly impressive, serial derecho that crossed the entirety of the FL peninsula in that event were over interior and southern areas of the state, including a couple of EF-2's. But the derecho itself was by far the most impressive I have ever seen, at least in Florida.
Reportedly, there was a confirmed wind gust of 111 mph at the police station in Kenner. That's literally where Category 3 begins. That's the first time I recall seeing triple digit wind speeds (correct me if I'm wrong) in a non-hurricane related thunderstorm. I wish I could've saw that...

EDIT: Apparently that was associated with an EF1 tornado. I knew it was either that or a huge downburst. Straight-line winds alone are rarely going to do that, even with the bow echo we had earlier.
Quoting 337. KoritheMan:
Reportedly, there was a confirmed wind gust of 111 mph at the police station in Kenner. That's literally where Category 3 begins. That's the first time I recall seeing triple digit wind speeds (correct me if I'm wrong) in a non-hurricane related thunderstorm. I wish I could've saw that...


111 mph sustained is where Category 3 begins. The strongest wind gust in a thunderstorm I have heard of is 165 mph in a 'tornadocane' at Trenton, North Carolina April 15, 1999.

Quoting 337. KoritheMan:

Reportedly, there was a confirmed wind gust of 111 mph at the police station in Kenner. That's literally where Category 3 begins. That's the first time I recall seeing triple digit wind speeds (correct me if I'm wrong) in a non-hurricane related thunderstorm. I wish I could've saw that...



wwltv.com

Was near where our Fema trailer was,well post K. Lots snapped poles there, and the Wal Mart had light fixtures blown out the drop ceiling there as well. They had the customers come up front near the registers in case of Impact. Was a squeaky few minutes there .

Quoting 338. BaltimoreBrian:



111 mph sustained is where Category 3 begins. The strongest wind gust in a thunderstorm I have heard of is 165 mph in a 'tornadocane' at Trenton, North Carolina April 15, 1999.


I know. I was just using the 111 itself as a baseline to exemplify how insane that kind of wind is.
Will I be able to go to work after all, Tuesday morning, or will I play golf? What do you think? I am in New Smyrna Beach - east Central Florida. Should I keep trying to justify why I should be out on the golf course? Or will weather conditions take care of this dilemma for me? Looking for an honest answer as I will not be able to resist the urge to play if weather permits.
342. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TX TO FL...
BAND OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. WITH AMPLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF E TX...ESEWD-MOVING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE LOCAL SEVERE RISK -- AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR OWING TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. STORMS ACROSS TX SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WHILE MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE LA/SRN MS/SRN AL VICINITY SHOULD SHIFT MAINLY INTO THE GULF WITH TIME AS THE ONSHORE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY OVERTURNED BY THE ONGOING STORMS.

FARTHER E INTO FL...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MOVED OFF THE SERN COAST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE A SECOND/WEAKER CLUSTER APPROACHES THE W CENTRAL COAST. STILL LATER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL AND SOME REMNANT SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
Quoting 328. BaltimoreBrian:



Central Park was 96 on April 18, 1976, Easter Sunday, and also had the hottest reading in the USA that date. Philadelphia had their hottest day of the year the same date. Providence RI was 99 on April 19 and Boston was 94, the date of the Boston Marathon. Logan airport cooled to 66 with a seabreeze by the time the fastest runner finished the race.

In the DC metro area April 16-20 1976 experienced a 5 day heat wave. April 12 had a severe freeze. May was cooler than normal that year and April was only hot in the middle. This kind of very early season heat isn't as remarkable as might first seem. When the trees haven't leafed out yet, most insolation goes into sensible (heat the air] rather than latent (evaporate water from leaves] heating. A similar heat wave occurred in 1960. 2009 and 2010 delivered 90s here in April also but not for as many days. Mid March 1990, delivered an 89F and I also remember taking my infant twins to the zoo with their older brother in March 1998, upper 80s again. It happens.
Quoting 341. Chicklit:
Will I be able to go to work after all, Tuesday morning, or will I play golf? What do you think? Should I keep trying to think up excuses about why I should be out on the golf course? Or will weather conditions take care of this dilemma for me? Looking for an honest answer as I will not be able to resist the urge to play if weather permits.

Play until you hear thunder, then go to 19th hole. :)
Quoting 333. Jedkins01:



I did mention earlier that using a gauge with a heater works, but accuracy is still questionable because hail bounces a lot, and I would think much of the hail that would fall into the funnel of a gauge would just bounce out.

It's certainly better than nothing though.

Sorry; I jumped into the middle of that discussion. Yes, hail can bounce out; I have also stood right there with my rain jacket on and watched larger raindrops splashing out. One thing's for sure - next time we receive one of those massive hail dumps, I will be out there watching it.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR THE 4/26/15 TORNADOES

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS
EASTLAND AND COMANCHE COUNTIES...AND MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST ROUGHLY
FOLLOWING THE SHAPE OF INTERSTATE 20 WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO THE
INTERSTATE 35W CORRIDOR. THESE SUPERCELLS PRODUCED VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERAL EF-0 TORNADOES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE TORNADOES PRIMARILY OCCURRED IN
SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS...PRIMARILY DAMAGING TREES AND PRODUCING
LIGHT DAMAGE TO RESIDENCES AND BUSINESSES IN THEIR PATH. ONE OF
THE MOST NOTABLE FACTS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT WAS THE FACT
THAT ONE OF THE SUPERCELLS BECAME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER JOHNSON
COUNTY FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY STORM PRODUCED 4
TORNADOES AS ITS UPDRAFT CYCLED OVER SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY. THE
STORM ALSO PRODUCED A SWATH OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE FROM
FISHERMAN'S PARADISE IN FAR SOUTHWEST JOHNSON COUNTY TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR RIO VISTA. THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE ASPECT OF THIS STORM
WAS LIKELY THE FLASH FLOODING IT PRODUCED AS THIS NEARLY STATIONARY
STORM DUMPED OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. MANY COUNTY ROADS ACROSS JOHNSON
COUNTY REMAINED CLOSED DURING THE DAMAGE SURVEY ON MONDAY DUE TO
THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT BEGAN SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WERE
NO SERIOUS INJURIES AND NO FATALITIES REPORTED DURING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

TORNADO NUMBER 1

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 3:33 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 12.5 NW SIDNEY

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 3:35 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 11.5 NW SIDNEY

TORNADO NUMBER 2

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 4:15 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 1 NE PROCTOR

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 4:16 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 NE PROCTOR

TORNADO NUMBER 3

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 70 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 4:30 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 3 SW DUBLIN

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 4:31 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 SW DUBLIN

TORNADO NUMBER 4

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 5:38 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 5 WSW GLEN ROSE

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 5:38 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 5 WSW GLEN ROSE

TORNADO NUMBER 5

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 9:53 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 10 W RIO VISTA

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 9:57 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 8 W RIO VISTA

TORNADO NUMBER 6

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 10:33 PM CDT
START LOCATION: IN RIO VISTA

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 10:36 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 NE RIO VISTA

TORNADO NUMBER 7

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 11:01 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2 E RIO VISTA

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 11:10 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 NE RIO VISTA

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO APPEARED TO ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE
WITHIN A MUCH LARGER...APPROXIMATELY 1.5 MILE WIDTH...CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE ROTATING UPDRAFT OF THE PARENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM.
THE PATH TOOK A NEARLY HORSESHOE SHAPE TRACK AS IT LOOPED IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE DIRECTION EAST OF RIO VISTA.

TORNADO NUMBER 8

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 4/26/2015
START TIME: 11:16 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2 E RIO VISTA

END DATE: 4/26/2015
END TIME: 11:19 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 NE RIO VISTA

SURVEY_SUMMARY: RADAR AND DAMAGE SURVEY EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
WAS A CLOCKWISE ROTATING TORNADO.
If someone can come up with a thunderstorm non-tornado wind gust higher than 165 mph I'd love to see it.
1 year of Mayflower - Villonia Tornado (Arkansas)
Quoting 345. BaltimoreBrian:



Play until you hear thunder, then go to 19th hole. :)

Thanks, Brian. But no 19th holed in the morning as I will be going to work AFTER golf. If we play at all. Trying to figure out if it's going to be raining and soggy in the morning or if I should plan on heading out after all.
351. beell
Quoting 341. Chicklit:

Will I be able to go to work after all, Tuesday morning, or will I play golf? What do you think? Should I keep trying to think up excuses about why I should be out on the golf course? Or will weather conditions take care of this dilemma for me? Looking for an honest answer as I will not be able to resist the urge to play if weather permits.


Go to work.
:(
Chicklit I thought you were a writer. Isn't ethanol an interesting catalyst in ink-paper reactions?
Quoting 351. beell:



Go to work.
:(

Thanks, Beell. That would solve a problem.
Getting over the 'cold from hell' and really not wanting to be out there in the wet and drizzle anyway, even if it's going to be warm.

Considering the problems of others, I am ashamed to bring it up.
Villages Near Nepal Earthquake%u2019s Epicenter Are Desperate as Death Toll Tops 4,000
The Storms have dropped the temp here to 66.2 F

Feels like were in the eye of a tropical storm, Quiet, Lotsa off distance light show.in a break here
Evening all... looks like that "sprightly" wx is planning to tear through FL and the NW Bahamas by tomorrow ... it was hot, humid and hazy here this afternoon, which made a power outage a really really bad idea. Several pple I talked to today were concerned that this wx this early is a sign that we're going to have a bad hurricane pass through the country this season ... sure hope they're wrong ...
North winds throughout much of the eastern GOM. Even just tapped the Naples area over to Ft Lauderdale.


Link NDBC Florida

Strong south flow from all the way down to yucatan peninsula and beyond.
Quoting 358. BahaHurican:

Evening all... looks like that "sprightly" wx is planning to tear through FL and the NW Bahamas by tomorrow ... it was hot, humid and hazy here this afternoon, which made a power outage a really really bad idea. Several pple I talked to today were concerned that this wx this early is a sign that we're going to have a bad hurricane pass through the country this season ... sure hope they're wrong ...

This is coming from west to east and hurricanes, in the Bahamas especially, come from east to west, so maybe not something to worry about? Anyway, I've said more than enough this evening. Night all.
Quoting 356. Patrap:

The Storms have dropped the temp here to 66.2 F

Feels like were in the eye of a tropical storm, Quiet, Lotsa off distance light show.in a break here

64 degrees here in Denham Springs, La. and this morning it felt like a strong tropical storm for an hour. Looked like one, too....with all of the downed trees and fences blown down and siding blown off of houses. a tornado went right over our area but to my knowledge, did not touch down here.
Quoting 361. CCkid00:

64 degrees here in Denham Springs, La. and this morning it felt like a strong tropical storm for an hour. Looked like one, too....with all of the downed trees and fences blown down and siding blown off of houses. a tornado went right over our area but to my knowledge, did not touch down here.


Indeed, glad it wasn't worse over there,,as we had quite the pucker factor going for a spell too. My best tip came from the German Shepherd, and the lil Dogs too. They were seeking shelter in 2 rooms a half hour before we got it.

Never saw this one so rattled. And She had pups during Isaac in 2012.
Had a FB chat with a Emg Mgr friend and we discussed how lucky that the Rail Cars that were blown off the Huey Long Bridge to the ground below were Containers only and not Chlorine or Ammonia .
tanker cars.


Or worse.


There is 100K Humans in that area


z there is worse too.
Quoting 348. BaltimoreBrian:

If someone can come up with a thunderstorm non-tornado wind gust higher than 165 mph I'd love to see it.


Not a thunderstorm, but my brother went through it:
Link
365. etxwx
Yay, our power finally came back on after a 12 hour outage. Damage was hit and miss here in Jasper County but one tree took out a 138,000 volt main power line, and then the crews had problems getting to it because of high water.

Has LAbonbon checked in since this morning? She was under tornado warning last I heard.
Patrap, I also got an early warning from my vibrating dogs - at 5:30am they went off just before my phone broadcast a warning. :)

P.S. Love the manmade.wunderground.com link; the new site is so slooow to load with my tin can and string internet, I'd about given up coming here. *waves at Brian* good to see you!
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* Comment on "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms - State of Knowledge" by Christopher William Landsea

Reply to 'Comment on "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms - State of Knowledge"'

CloudSat Observes a Labrador Sea Polar Low

Evolving obs4MIPs to Support the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)

*** Obama's EPA Rule Is Redrawing the U.S. Coal Map

Why Is the Rising Death Toll in the Nepal Earthquake Still Lower Than Predictions?


Perhaps because the earthquake was not centered under Kathmandu?



!!! Ecosystem services lost to oil and gas in North America

!!! Origin of life: Chemistry of seabed's hot vents could explain emergence of life

Bizarre 'platypus' dinosaur: Vegetarian relative of T. rex

*** Strange supernova is 'missing link' in gamma-ray burst connection




*** Astrophysicists draw most comprehensive map of the universe



Giant cosmic tsunami wakes up comatose galaxies




*** 2-D semiconductor comes clean: Performance dramatically improved



*** Can sound help us detect 'earthquakes' on Venus?



!!! Alternate theory of inhabitation of North America disproven

Continental U.S.: Map shows content and origins of the geologic basement



*** Warming climate may release vast amounts of carbon from long-frozen Arctic soils


* Fracking? Injecting wastewater? New insight on ground shaking from human-made earthquakes


!!! Hiatus in global average temperatures has little effect on projected temperatures in 2100

*** Drought, expanding deserts and 'food for jihad' drive Mali's conflict

Global warming to blame for most heat extremes: study

!!! Why energy is front and center in EU-US trade talks


Tensions grow in Arctic Council as US takes control

How air conditioning explains the world

* On Food Labels, Calorie Miscounts

Conservatives don't think global warming will happen in their lifetimes

*** Can the Chesapeake Bay (and its Signature Blue Crabs) Recover?


US-Mexico water pact brings life back to Colorado River's parched delta
Good to see you etxwx!

The manmade link is not ideal, it froze while I was making my list twice.
Quoting 337. KoritheMan:

Reportedly, there was a confirmed wind gust of 111 mph at the police station in Kenner. That's literally where Category 3 begins. That's the first time I recall seeing triple digit wind speeds (correct me if I'm wrong) in a non-hurricane related thunderstorm. I wish I could've saw that...

EDIT: Apparently that was associated with an EF1 tornado. I knew it was either that or a huge downburst. Straight-line winds alone are rarely going to do that, even with the bow echo we had earlier.



That's really strong.

The April fools 2011 severe weather event in the Tampa Bay area produced a 105 mph wind gust on Indian Rocks beach south of Clearwater, and remarkably it was just a thunderstorm gust not a tornado, although there were 12 tornadoes in the area that day too and many other severe wind gusts recorded, so that was a crazy event.

I've occasionally heard of wind gusts exceeding 100 mph in thunderstorms in the plains too. I can think of another case just in Florida too, Melbourne on the east coast had a wind gust over 100 mph a few years back from a thunderstorm, and the 1993 superstorm derecho also produced some wind gusts that peaked over 100 mph in Florida.. It's not common but it can happen, and if it can happen in Florida, I'm more than sure it happens in the plains and deep south as well given that they see more significant severe events than here.
at 363:

How long a'fore they're running on those rails again? glad to know our EMR friend is still kicking-
Quoting 362. Patrap:



Indeed, glad it wasn't worse over there,,as we had quite the pucker factor going for a spell too. My best tip came from the German Shepherd, and the lil Dogs too. They were seeking shelter in 2 rooms a half hour before we got it.

Never saw this one so rattled. And She had pups during Isaac in 2012.

i can believe your dogs! it was the worst "thunderstorm" i've seen here.
Quoting 365. etxwx:

Yay, our power finally came back on after a 12 hour outage. Damage was hit and miss here in Jasper County but one tree took out a 138,000 volt main power line, and then the crews had problems getting to it because of high water.

Has LAbonbon checked in since this morning? She was under tornado warning last I heard.
Patrap, I also got an early warning from my vibrating dogs - at 5:30am they went off just before my phone broadcast a warning. :)

P.S. Love the manmade.wunderground.com link; the new site is so slooow to load with my tin can and string internet, I'd about given up coming here. *waves at Brian* good to see you!


Weird, trees are supposed to be kept a certain amount of distance from higher voltage transmission lines, anything that contacts those, especially plants, is a major fire hazard. Usually trees are kept well away from the higher voltage transmission lines for that reason. Well that and a single line loss leads to numerous outages, lol.
LAbonbon was on earlier in the day I believe.

She had lota rain and squalls too.
Quoting 369. aquak9:
at 363:

How long a'fore they're running on those rails again? glad to know our EMR friend is still kicking-


He b kickin good, was clearing trees yesterday or co-ordinating it in Miss where He is running fo office too.

Same good guy.

As per the Huey P. Long Tressel, NTSB might likely have a say in dat un.

Try nola,com or wwltv.com may have some on that 2.





Uncle, Uncle.....nuff already'


Quoting 372. Patrap:

LAbonbon was on earlier in the day I believe.

She had lota rain and squalls too.

I feel bad for forgetting about her through all this. :(

Much love!

Quoting 374. Patrap:

Uncle, Uncle.....nuff already'


NAM/RAP guidance suggests this should be the last wave.

Quoting 368. Jedkins01:



That's really strong.

The April fools 2011 severe weather event in the Tampa Bay area produced a 105 mph wind gust on Indian Rocks beach south of Clearwater, and remarkably it was just a thunderstorm gust not a tornado, although there were 12 tornadoes in the area that day too and many other severe wind gusts recorded, so that was a crazy event.

I've occasionally heard of wind gusts exceeding 100 mph in thunderstorms in the plains too. I can think of another case just in Florida too, Melbourne on the east coast had a wind gust over 100 mph a few years back from a thunderstorm, and the 1993 superstorm derecho also produced some wind gusts that peaked over 100 mph in Florida.. It's not common but it can happen, and if it can happen in Florida, I'm more than sure it happens in the plains and deep south as well given that they see more significant severe events than here.
Florida and Louisiana seem to have similar days of thunderstorms from what I gather. The primary difference between here and there is that we get a lot more frontally-induced severe weather, as longwave troughs can easily penetrate down to 30N during the winter if they want to. Our summertime diurnal patterns seem the same though.
378. etxwx
Quoting 371. Jedkins01:


Weird, trees are supposed to be kept a certain amount of distance from higher voltage transmission lines, anything that contacts those, especially plants, is a major fire hazard. Usually trees are kept well away from the higher voltage transmission lines for that reason. Well that and a single line loss leads to numerous outages, lol.


Very true, Jedkins01, but we have some pretty big trees around here and this one was tall enough to cover two thirds of the right of way. All it takes is one. :)

Aerial photo by Mike Lout
From the KJAS.com website
This is the reason the city of Jasper is without power, a tree knocked down this 138,000 volt Entergy power line between Jasper and Newton. You can see the tree laying across the line.

BTW, Mike Lout runs the radio station and is mayor of Jasper. He went up in his plane along with the police chief to help Entergy find the source of the outage. Gotta love small towns!
Quoting 376. KoritheMan:

NAM/RAP guidance suggests this should be the last wave.



O I hope so.


The squeegee broke
Quoting 276. barbamz:

Second BBC's weather video from today, covering not only the unseasonal thunderstorms in the earthquake region of Nepal but also the freak storm which hit Pakistan yesterday with a high death toll (see post #5).

Weather hampers quake relief efforts
BBC weather video, 27 April 2015 Last updated at 18:02
As the death toll continues to rise, heavy rain and fog disrupt rescue work in earthquake stricken Nepal. Rain and further aftershocks have raised concerns of more landslides and avalanches, making access to remote villages even more difficult.
Jay Wynne reports for Global on BBC World News.


(BTW, WU's weather news haven't mentioned neither this recent deadly storm in Pakistan nor the national disaster storm in Bihar/India last week yet, as far as I could see.)
That seems unusual. Normally they're pretty good at reporting wx related international stories.
Quoting 302. barbamz:


I miss him too. Would love to see him back! But maybe it's his own decision to stay away from NUWU :-(
I just hope he is okay ... does anyone have a non-blog contact for him?
Hi everyone. I hope everyone is safe and dry. I hope I did a good job today for the severe weather we had today.
Sorry to hear the news about SAR . He will be missed.

On the hurricane fears, it's not so much the current wx as it is the unseasonably hot and humid conditions. I'd have to see some local records to determine whether there is a correlation between hot Aprils and major hurricanes in this area.

Quoting 383. BahaHurican:

Sorry to hear the news about SAR . He will be missed.

On the hurricane fears, it's not so much the current wx as it is the unseasonably hot and humid conditions. I'd have to see some local records to determine whether there is a correlation between hot Aprils and major hurricanes in this area.
Well, heat generally indicates deep ridging aloft which extends all the way down to the low-levels and the surface.

Quoting 381. Andrebrooks:

Hi everyone. I hope everyone is safe and dry. I hope I did a good job today for the severe weather we had today.
no u did terrible stop forecasting now

j/k :D
If you want to know details about the heat records in Cuba, you can find them on my personal website, which I shared with Dr. Maximiliano.
http://consultorageomet.blogspot.com
Quoting 380. BahaHurican:

That seems unusual. Normally they're pretty good at reporting wx related international stories. I just hope he is okay ... does anyone have a non-blog contact for him?


Thought I had his email address in my inbox; apparently I don't. :(
What happened to comments 375 through 377? I don't remember seeing anything offensive recently in the comments.
Every bit of news coming out of Nepal lately continues to paint a somber picture. As search-and-rescue groups begin to scour through the most affected communities, the number of casualties continues to increase rapidly. Via the latest update from the Associated Press, at least 4,352 people are confirmed dead with over 8,000 injured; of the 4,352 fatalities, at least 19 occurred during an avalanche on Mt. Everest initiated by the earthquake, marking the highest number of fatalities in a single day there. Throughout Nepal, hundreds are still missing.

Several organizations have set up online donation sites, including...

GlobalGiving
American Red Cross
UNICEF
WFP
IMC
Doctors Without Borders
Save The Children
Care
OxFam America
JDC
Samaritan's Purse
Quoting 391. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Every bit of news coming out of Nepal lately continues to paint a somber picture. As search-and-rescue groups begin to scour through the most affected communities, the number of casualties continues to increase rapidly. Via the latest update from the Associated Press, at least 4,352 people are confirmed dead with over 8,000 injured; of the 4,352 fatalities, at least 19 occurred during an avalanche on Mt. Everest initiated by the earthquake, marking the highest number of fatalities in a single day there. Throughout Nepal, hundreds are still missing.

Several organizations have set up online donation sites, including...

GlobalGiving
American Red Cross
UNICEF
WFP
IMC
Doctors Without Borders
Save The Children
Care
OxFam America
JDC
Samaritan's Purse


Have any rescue people gotten away from the larger cities to see the damage/casualties in the country side ?? Saw where there were 3 rescue dogs that left today with their handlers from Chicago .. but will take 2 days to get there ..
There were a surprising amount of severe weather in South Florida today even though the majority of the action was in Louisiana, a lot of reports of quarter to golfball sized hail and wind damage reports. The worst damage reports include a few homes with roof damage, and a max hail report of 2.00 inches.
Quoting 391. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Every bit of news coming out of Nepal lately continues to paint a somber picture. As search-and-rescue groups begin to scour through the most affected communities, the number of casualties continues to increase rapidly. Via the latest update from the Associated Press, at least 4,352 people are confirmed dead with over 8,000 injured; of the 4,352 fatalities, at least 19 occurred during an avalanche on Mt. Everest initiated by the earthquake, marking the highest number of fatalities in a single day there. Throughout Nepal, hundreds are still missing.

Several organizations have set up online donation sites, including...

GlobalGiving
American Red Cross
UNICEF
WFP
IMC
Doctors Without Borders
Save The Children
Care
OxFam America
JDC
Samaritan's Purse


It could have been so much worse.

Conservative estimates are that the next big earthquake could result in 100,000 dead, 200,000 injured and one to two million people displaced in the fabled Kathmandu Valley where memories live on of the 1934 earthquake which took more than 8,000 lives.


From a link in this article: Why Is the Rising Death Toll in the Nepal Earthquake Still Lower Than Predictions?
Quoting 393. Jedkins01:
There were a surprising amount of severe weather in South Florida today even though the majority of the action was in Louisiana, a lot of reports of quarter to golfball sized hail and wind damage reports. The worst damage reports include a few homes with roof damage, and a max hail report of 2.00 inches.


Jedkins01 has any Florida city ever had their hottest day of the year in April? I was thinking that the readings in SE Florida yesterday just might make it. Much of the northeast had their hottest day of the year on April 18-19, 1976.
Quoting 395. BaltimoreBrian:



Jedkins01 has any Florida city ever had their hottest day of the year in April? I was thinking that the readings in SE Florida yesterday just might make it. Much of the northeast had their hottest day of the year on April 18-19, 1976.
I heard that it was 99F in Miami yesterday (Sunday). If that's true, not only will it likely be the hottest day of the year this year, but it would either tie or possibly exceed the all-time highest temperature there. Florida coastal locations very rarely reach 100F, due to high humidity during the summer season and sea breezes which generally keep the maximum temperature below 100 and most often below about 95-96F.

Most typically you can count on the high temp in most any Florida city being at least 88F during any summer day that includes abundant sunshine but usually it will cap at about 90-94F. Oddly enough, the most likely time for record high temps is during the late Spring, when humidity levels can be just low enough to allow the mercury to creep up to the high 90's range. So yes, it certainly could happen, whether or not it has happened before, I cannot say but it is possible.
Rain just started here, about 3:45 a.m. Wonder how much we'll get ...
Quoting 368. Jedkins01:



That's really strong.

The April fools 2011 severe weather event in the Tampa Bay area produced a 105 mph wind gust on Indian Rocks beach south of Clearwater, and remarkably it was just a thunderstorm gust not a tornado, although there were 12 tornadoes in the area that day too and many other severe wind gusts recorded, so that was a crazy event.

I've occasionally heard of wind gusts exceeding 100 mph in thunderstorms in the plains too. I can think of another case just in Florida too, Melbourne on the east coast had a wind gust over 100 mph a few years back from a thunderstorm, and the 1993 superstorm derecho also produced some wind gusts that peaked over 100 mph in Florida.. It's not common but it can happen, and if it can happen in Florida, I'm more than sure it happens in the plains and deep south as well given that they see more significant severe events than here.


When we (my family) first moved to the southwest side of Fort Worth in March 1989, we had an amazing experience occur just about a month or so later in mid-April 1989. We had one of those early season storm systems come down from the north, over the Red River, and just rained with wind so intense that it blew the water thru the seams of our heavy wood front door and formed large puddles on the tile floor a couple of feet inside the entry way. It also produced water puddles on the inside of several window ledges facing to the north. My wife and I put down several bath towels and rung them out multiple times to soak up the water on the floor and window ledges. Never seen anything like it. This was a brand new home, not three months old since completion. Both of us are from Indiana, had gone thru the Palm Sunday Storms in 1965 (?) and I had been in Korea during the monsoon season and in the Army's Jungle Warfare School in Panama in 1977-78, yet this was something new. One report from the local weather station said that a wind gust in Arlington had been recorded at 115 miles per hour. But no kidding, the rain actually blew thru the seems in the front, wood door. Wife and I looked at each other when it was over and said we've been here a month and this is what we need to expect? Have seen some bad stuff since, including the incredible hail storm in the DFW area on Cinco de Mayo (5 May 1994, I think was the date), but nothing like those winds back in April 1989.....

Anyway that was my experience with 100 mph like winds outside of an actual tornado. And to comment on the weather yesterday and the last 10-12 days here in southwest Fort Worth, between Benbrook Lake and I-35, we had 60-70 mile straight line winds on Saturday night, 18 April, and winds as high as 90 mph on Friday night, 24 April, but just got the "mammantus" nimbus clouds and rain on Sunday, 26 April, as well as heavy, 20 minute downpour about 1715 hours this evening (Monday, 27 April), with some more fun scheduled for later this morning (28 April).

.....and if it keeps going like this thru our severe weather season here in North Texas which usually occurs from 15 April to 31 May of each year, most of the lakes are going to be filled to 100% capacity and we will have great ground water for grazing lands which will eventually have a good (lower price) impact on beef prices in the future - Texas Hoosier
400. beell
Quoting 390. Jedkins01:

What happened to comments 375 through 377? I don't remember seeing anything offensive recently in the comments.


It began with a thinly veiled question from one commenter to another regarding the effectiveness of alcohol (booze) to provide the proper frame of mind for the creation of literary works.

The response widened the scope of the original question to the use of cannabis. Followed by a third commenter professing his "love" for this particular drug and a plan to introduce his brother to same this weekend.

I'm guessing WU did not like the direction of this particular exchange and removed the most blatant reference to illegal drug use.

If the third commenter had asserted that he was going to get his brother drunk this weekend-all would have been fine.

:)

Quoting 348. BaltimoreBrian:

If someone can come up with a thunderstorm non-tornado wind gust higher than 165 mph I'd love to see it.


231 mph Mount Washington Observatory New Hampshire:
Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
519 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS WESTWARD TO A DEVELOPING
1001 MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALOFT...A LARGE CYCLONE IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
IS MAINTAINING A MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM (MCS) OFF THE
LOUISIANA COAST THAT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. A LARGE AREA OF
MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAINFALL EXTENDS EAST OF THIS MCS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW ENTERING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
BLANKETS OUR REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS...WITH POCKETS OF LOWER
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING
THE COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY WELL DATING BACK TO THE
PAST WEEKEND...AND WILL USE THIS AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR TODAY.
RAINFALL WILL EXPAND THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES E/NE TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL WILL BEGIN RETURNING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE MCS EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST DUE
TO INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS...WITH MID 70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS.

OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD THAN PRIOR RUNS...PLACING ONLY NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FL COUNTIES. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/06Z
OPERATIONAL NAM INDICATE A DRY SLOT OVERNIGHT OVER OUR FL
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEAST
GA AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MIGRATES ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT IMPRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL VEERING IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR FL COUNTIES
TONIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. IF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER DEVELOPS...THEN ROTATING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE FL BIG BEND COAST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL WITHIN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE 60S REGION-
WIDE.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EMERGING OFF
THE NORTHEAST FL COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN RIPE FOR ROTATING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEAST FL...AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER KEEPS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
STEADY RAINS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER WILL DEPART SOUTHEAST
GA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF I-10 WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S...WITH 70S NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR SOUTHEAST GA. EVENT
TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

WED NIGHT...SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE OF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE TRACKING NE AND TRAILING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND WITH LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS WINDS BACK FROM NE TO
NW THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT A GRADUAL CESSATION OF PRECIP AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. MIN
TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THU & THU NIGHT...A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN FL ZONES THEN CLEARING SKIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
CLEARING SKIES THU NIGHT AS MINS FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 RIVER BASIN/COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH UNDER DEEP LAYER NW FLOW FRI AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LATE SAT THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THEN OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUN WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN UPSTREAM. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK UNDER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISED AN INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH FL TO THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS TRANSLATING INLAND EACH AFTN TOWARD THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S FRI AND
MINS IN THE 50S FRI NIGHT TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND MINS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&
Quoting 396. FLWaterFront:

I heard that it was 99F in Miami yesterday (Sunday). If that's true, not only will it likely be the hottest day of the year this year, but it would either tie or possibly exceed the all-time highest temperature there. Florida coastal locations very rarely reach 100F, due to high humidity during the summer season and sea breezes which generally keep the maximum temperature below 100 and most often below about 95-96F.

Most typically you can count on the high temp in most any Florida city being at least 88F during any summer day that includes abundant sunshine but usually it will cap at about 90-94F. Oddly enough, the most likely time for record high temps is during the late Spring, when humidity levels can be just low enough to allow the mercury to creep up to the high 90's range. So yes, it certainly could happen, whether or not it has happened before, I cannot say but it is possible.


The article states that the high in Miami on Sunday was 96 F. The record hottest temperature in Miami is 100 F.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


The article states that the high in Miami on Sunday was 96 F. The record hottest temperature in Miami is 100 F.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
1255 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MIAMI TODAY...

AT 1:27 PM THE TEMPERATURE AT MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 96
DEGREES. THIS TIES THE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL WHICH WAS SET APRIL 30TH 1971.

FWIW, Sunday's 96 was the highest temperature ever so early in the year there, and it marked only the fourth time in Miami weather history that a temperature that high has been recorded outside the months of May, June, July, or August.

Hot, hot, hot...
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I don't think the Fort Myers shield will stop this rain. Rain coming up from the S.W. and down from the N.W. today.
On another note, local met has us getting down to 63 degrees Saturday morning with four nights in a row with temps in the 60s. That should feel good. Might even be able to open up the house and let in some fresh air this weekend.

This has got to help bring some relief to our drought areas.
Very rainy day here in Longwood. Could pick up a solid 2" today. Great news to see this rain and then the Rainy Season arrives early next week "Officially". Local mets in Orlando mentioned this last night after a few dry days late this week it does appear the Rainy Season will be underway across the FL Penisula starting Monday.

Wind shear has dropped in most parts of the atlantic. rather unusual for this time of year. Is this an indicator that things are about change.


Nor quite as potent as it was earlier, but still looking like it has a pretty good punch to it.
Quoting 411. stoormfury:

Wind shear has dropped in most parts of the atlantic. rather unusual for this time of year. Is this an indicator that things are about change.



All models are showing some sort of hybrid or sub tropical system developing of FL next week and then moving NW toward Georgia late next week. Really surprised no one has mentioned that on here as we could see our first named system late next week.
414. jpsb
Quoting 401. wartsttocs:



231 mph Mount Washington Observatory New Hampshire:
Link


According to his account, April 12 started with a brilliant sunrise, but the weather soon turned cloudy. By evening, fog obscured the summit and rime ice formed up to a foot thick. Early the next morning, when observer Wendell Stephenson headed outside to clear ice from the anemometer, the wind knocked him flat on his back as he opened the door. When he accidentally dropped the club he was using to break up the ice, it went flying off into the fog. Gusts were at 150 mph.


"I dropped all other activities and concentrated on observations. Everyone in the house was 'mobilized' as during a war attack and assigned a job," observer Sal Pagliuca wrote in a log book.

Gusts grew stronger through the afternoon, until 1:21 p.m., when the 231 mph gust was recorded.
Haven't seen the radar this active across FL since the end of February.

Quoting 415. StormTrackerScott:

Haven't seen the radar this active across FL since the end of February.




Currently pouring here in Tampa. This looks to continue all morning into the early afternoon. We could get 3+ inches at this rate.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
749 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL
AND BRIEF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER AROUND OSCEOLA
COUNTY...CENTRAL AND SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHWARD TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO LOCALLY THREE INCHES IN PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS MAY CREATE NUISANCE FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
LOW LYING ROADS AND PROPERTY. MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID DRIVING INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...HIGHER
WAVES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ON INLAND LAKES...INCLUDING THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE TREASURE AND
SPACE COASTS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF ANY
STORMS AND KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR DEVELOPING STORMS.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN DEVELOPING STORMS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT...THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
THE GREATEST FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND INTO THE ATLANTIC...DRAGGING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH
THE AREAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND ACTIVATE IF ANY
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES OR OBSERVED FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.


$$

CRISTALDI/PENDERGRAST

418. MahFL
Quoting 411. stoormfury:

Wind shear has dropped in most parts of the atlantic. rather unusual for this time of year. Is this an indicator that things are about change.


Shear is still very high though.

Quoting 415. StormTrackerScott:

Haven't seen the radar this active across FL since the end of February.


what a great heavy rain here this morning..we really needed this
Quoting 413. StormTrackerScott:




All models are showing some sort of hybrid or sub tropical system developing of FL next week and then moving NW toward Georgia late next week. Really surprised no one has mentioned that on here as we could see our first named system late next week.





You mean this little guy? Looks like whatever it becomes, it moves ashore near the Georgia/South Carolina border.
sometimes all these systems need is a space where the upper air winds are marginal for them to spin up
Good Morning. Tallahassee was forecasting severe t-storms for us yesterday but the energy in the Gulf has stayed to our South so the forecast has been updated to "showers". Now we have to see what happens with the low later in this period. Nice discussion from Tally NWS on the MCS in the Gulf and some of the forecast scenarios for later today:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
438 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LARGE
MCS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
UNFORTUNATELY...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A VERY GOOD INITIALIZATION
OF THIS FEATURE. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SEEM TOO SLOW WITH ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...AND THIS WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN A NON-LINEAR WAY THAT IS HARD TO PREDICT. ON THE ONE
HAND...THE MORE RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MCS MAY ALLOW
MORE TIME FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
BEHIND THIS MCS INTO THE GULF WHICH WILL HAVE TO CHANGE IF THERE
IS GOING TO BE ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE MSLP PATTERN
IS VERY MESSY AND THE MODELS STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT WHERE
THE EVENTUAL MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK AND HOW STRONG IT WILL
BE. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE APRIL...IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH TIME
FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER AS IT WOULD IF THIS WERE JANUARY...SO
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

IN THE MEANTIME...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MCS. ALSO...GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.


Quoting 358. BahaHurican:

Evening all... looks like that "sprightly" wx is planning to tear through FL and the NW Bahamas by tomorrow ... it was hot, humid and hazy here this afternoon, which made a power outage a really really bad idea. Several pple I talked to today were concerned that this wx this early is a sign that we're going to have a bad hurricane pass through the country this season ... sure hope they're wrong ...
That's funny, same here, some of the long time locals are saying the same here.
might want to check you protection systems are your homes. noticed the neighbors fancy hurricane shutters all the screws holding it onto the house are rusted. i like my wood.
As noted below, sheer is still high in the Atlantic basin (as it should be this time of the year) and the subtropical-jet is howling over the Gulf and Florida regions. Conversely, note the very low shear on the E-Pac side off the coast of Central and South America; the E-Pac season starts May 15th and things look very primed for the start.


Look what we have off the southeast coast. :/ hmm. Ana wants to give the southeast a surprise this year.
Finally would note that the Southern tip of Florida needs the rain so here's hoping that the MCS will continue to jog to the SE and become a nice rain event for them.


Rain totals are starting to really go up.

CMC too.
Quoting 432. Andrebrooks:

CMC too.


It better not be as ugly as Andrea was... ;-;

Good morning everyone from near the riots in Maryland. Praying for those injured in this needless violence.

Euro even showing a little something.
Quoting 433. Torito:



It better not be as ugly as Andrea was... ;-;

Good morning everyone from near the riots in Maryland. Praying for those injured in this needless violence.
Or Arthur too. And yes prayers for the people in Maryland.
Quoting 436. Andrebrooks:
Or Arthur too. And yes prayers for the people in Maryland.


God, its crazy down here. fires, cars destroyed, broken windows.. pretty much everything. A lot calmer down here now though, guess its just because its morning.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
439. vis0
Is the universe a hologram? -- ScienceDaily

Now imagine that in having the ability for ALL of the laws of  physics to not just survive but thrive in a 1 dimensional plane then if that 1 dimension took the shape of a 1 dimensional filament**  existing in a 5 dimension universe the possibilities are endless∞ (to the power of infinity?) .


**This would explain the ancient Chinese theory that we are all of a dream and that each one of us is not only living our own dream but in every other beings dream, BUT playing different roles in EACH and EVERY DREAM.

HERE SOME EXAMPLES::


fer instance in sars filament has a certain moderator(s) slipping on poop (doesn't get hurt just embarrassed) but the rest of us notice the site is lacking its colour commen-tator.

while in the moderators filament sar was only banned for 2 weeks but in his haste to post during an active weather period he broke his ENTER key and is typing but nothing is being sent but we see no sign of sar

in my filament i'm picking my brain

in everyone else's filament vis0 is picking his nose (vis0 brain/nose, same thing) 

Chicklit sees herself playing golf swinging away with several holes in one

the rest of us see Chicklit swinging away dusting the venetian blinds 'cause its raining AGAIN?!

in BBs filament his news headlines are now projected onto the clouds throughout the world in every language

the rest of us are trying to read EVERY ONE of BBs most interesting links

in Taz's filament Taz sees a light bulb over Taz's head.

the rest of us keep asking when is Taz going to replace that flickering bulb

in Grothar filament Grothar sees it ALL

the rest of us keep screaming peeping tom



祭挠獡⥥†潦⁲潭敲攠獥൳ഊഊ椊 䉂⁳牡⁥潮⁷牰橯捥牴畯桧畯⁴桴⁥ 潷湩獫ഠഊ椊慔⁺楦慬敭氠潩桧⁴ 扬欠獥⁴景甠⁳敫⁳慔⁺潧湩⁧潴爠 慬散琠慨⁴畢扬猠慔⁺慣敳⁥⁳ 敫獹മഊ



440. MahFL
This cloud pattern looks like the edge of a strong hurricane.

441. MahFL
Quoting 423. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Tallahassee was forecasting severe t-storms for us yesterday...


Similar thing here in NE Florida, forecast was for heavy rain with a possible 4 inches, now it's just showers.