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Earth Day Updrafts: Supercell in Texas, Volcano in Chile

By: Bob Henson 4:43 PM GMT on April 23, 2015

A spectacular supercell thunderstorm over the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon morphed into a sprawling complex that moved across North Texas overnight with strong winds, heavy rain, and hail. The original supercell dropped several brief tornadoes south and east of Amarillo and displayed some impressive structure (see Figure 1) before it merged with other storms to form a mesoscale convective system (MCS). These large clusters of showers and thunderstorms can persist for more than 12 hours, often forming in the evening and persisting until morning.


Figure 1. This supercell northwest of Floydada, Texas, has the classic corkscrew appearance produced by the rotation of the entire thunderstorm. The supercell produced several brief tornadoes. Image credit: Brock Burghardt.


Wednesday night’s MCS drew from a pool of deep moisture over Texas, and it was hustled along a northwest-to-southeast frontal zone by powerful jet stream winds, exceeding 140 mph above the DFW area at 0000 GMT Thursday. Further south, another complex of storms developed near Corpus Christi earlier in the day, toppling power poles and downing power lines with wind gusts estimated at 70 mph, before moving into the Gulf of Mexico, where it maintained impressive vigor into the night. A buoy about 100 miles south of Houston reported a wind gust to 87 mph. Remnants of this MCS moved across Florida on Thursday morning. The strong upper winds prevalent across the East also worked their way to the surface in and near New Jersey on Wednesday afternoon. A batch of modest rainshowers produced downburst winds that gusted to 71 mph at Philadelphia International Airport around 3:00 p.m.


Figure 2. The Day 2 convective outlook valid on Friday, April 24, shows an enhanced risk of severe weather across parts of the southern Great Plains. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


More severe weather on the way into next week
Conditions are ripe for more tornadic storms and MCSs over the next several days across the south-central states, as upper-level energy ripples along the strong jet stream and rich moisture remains in place. A slight risk of severe weather is in place for Thursday across parts of central Texas, southern Louisiana, and eastern Colorado/western Kansas. More significant severe weather is expected on Friday, with NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center already highlighting the possibility of strong tornadoes ahead of a dry line that should extend from central Kansas to central Texas. SPC’s Day 2 outlook for Friday shows an enhanced risk of severe weather in two pockets ahead of the dry line (see Figure 2). The ultimate locations of elevated risk will hinge in large part on where storms develop on Thursday night; any widespread activity could leave clouds and rain-cooled air that reduce the amount of instability available on Friday afternoon. The zone of greatest severe risk will shift east across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast on Saturday.

Another strong upper low could bring renewed severe weather in Texas and Oklahoma by late in the weekend. SPC’s Day 5 outlook is already pointing to a ramped-up probability of severe weather on Monday in central Texas, a rare upgrade for so far into the future. The last several runs of the longer-range GFS model suggest this upper low would continue eastward as a distinct system across the Gulf states early next week, with very strong thunderstorms and heavy rain eventually possible as far southeast as Florida, while the latest run of the ECMWF model (issued at 0000 GMT Thursday) moves the upper-level energy more slowly and in a weaker form. Before the month is done, Kentucky should get one or more bouts of heavy rain, possibly giving several cities their wettest April on record, including Frankfurt (10.68” to date; record 13.95” in 2011); Lexington (10.61” to date; record 12.70” in 2011); and Louisville (10.61” to date; record 13.97” in 2011).



Figure 3. Children in Puerto Varas, Chile, watch the Calbuco volcano erupt on Wednesday, April 22, 2015. The volcano’s huge ash cloud spread over a sparsely populated, mountainous area in southern Chile. Authorities ordered the evacuation of the inhabitants of the nearby town of Ensenada, along with residents of two smaller communities. Image credit: AP Photo/Carlos F. Gutierrez.

Chile’s Calbuco volcano springs to life
For sheer visual power, Wednesday’s U.S. thunderstorms were eclipsed by the surprise eruption of Calbuco in southern Chile, just north of Patagonia. The volcano, located near Puerto Montt in the Los Lagos region, has a peak elevation of about 6,500 feet. Wednesday’s event was Calbuco’s first eruption since 1972 and the first major one since 1961. The initial burst of ash formed a narrow column that quickly reached the stratosphere (at least 10 km high) and spread out into an anvil cloud resembling that of a severe thunderstorm (Figure 3). Overnight, a second eruption was reported, with lava flows and lightning painting a eerie, brilliant scene. This Mashable photo album shows the many faces of the Calbuco eruption as the day and night unfolded. About 4,000 nearby residents had evacuated by late Wednesday, but there were no immediate reports of injury.

Vulcanologist/blogger Erik Klemetti at Wired pointed out that the eruption’s initial phase was “a classic Plinian column”—a term derived from the infamous A.D. 79 eruption of Mount Vesuvius, which was documented by Pliny the Younger. The apparent height and nature of the plume from Calbuco would put the volcano’s first eruption on Wednesday at a ranking of at least 4 (“cataclysmic”) on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, which runs from 0 to 8. It would take a much more potent eruption to generate the massive impacts on climate described by Jeff Masters in his recent post on Indonesia’s Mount Tambora, which produced a colossal eruption 200 years ago.

Erupción volcán Calbuco

Erupción volcán CalbucoGENTILEZA :Felipe Andrés Canales Torres

Posted by C.I.M.A.T - CENTRO INFORMACIÓN MONITOREO ALERTA TEMPRANA on Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Video 1. This amazing time-lapse sequence, from Chile’s Centro Información Monitoreo Alerta Temprana, shows the eruption of Calbuco through nightfall Wednesday.



This week’s WunderPoster: Dust devils
If you can appreciate the power of rising air on a more modest scale than a volcanic eruption or a supercell thunderstorm, check out this artistic take on dust devils, the latest installment in our WunderPoster series (Figure 4, right). When the summer sun bakes a field or a desert, a pocket of surface air may heat up enough to create a narrow, rotating updraft. Most dust devils spin harmlessly across the landscape--too small, weak, and short-lived to cause much trouble--but the most powerful can be dangerous, lasting for 10 minutes or more and packing winds exceeding 60 mph. All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Bob Henson

Volcano Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks doc.........rain has let up here fort the time being, nws says we received 2-3 inches of rain this morning already.
Quoting 2. LargoFl:

thanks doc.........rain has let up here fort the time being, nws says we received 2-3 inches of rain this morning already.


I wonder where that 2-3 inches fell. My guess is Pinellas County as you guys seemed to get the heaviest of the rains. I have received 0.63" so far today.
Thank you Mr. Henson. Excellent post.
It looks like there'll be more instability in texas tomorrow. The problem with kansas is that the strongest upper-level forcing is a jog to the southeast according to the GFS.
Those "71 mph winds" in Philly and New Jersey never made it to my location on Long Island. I was ready and prepared to experience some nasty weather. All I got were "showers" and a leaky skylight. Thanks a lot. ;)
Quoting 3. tampabaymatt:



I wonder where that 2-3 inches fell. My guess is Pinellas County as you guys seemed to get the heaviest of the rains. I have received 0.63" so far today.
yeah matt..Pinellas had the flood warning earlier..nws said we already had 2-3 inches before the warning came out so any more today will probably be added ...I know it sure came down hard here on my street for awhile...whew sure did...eased up here now probably we get a dry period before more comes.
multi-day severe weather event possible.......................................... ...................
Mesonet is showing 2.19" near 66th and Ulmerton Rd and the Roosevelt Reservoir area in Largo/St. Pete.

.80" at Tampa International.

Now bring some of that rain down here.


Thank You Dr. Henson. While a relatively slow tornado season thus far, we are starting to enter the peak period (particularly for the Mid-West and Tornado alley) over the next several weeks. From the Noaa Severe Storm Laboratory:

Tornado season usually refers to the time of year the U.S. sees the most tornadoes. The peak “tornado season” for the Southern Plains is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring. In the northern plains and upper Midwest, tornado season is in June or July. But, remember, tornadoes can happen at any time of year. Tornadoes can also happen at any time of day or night, but most tornadoes occur between 4–9 p.m.
Thanks Bob, on the edge again...
say guys..this volcano eruption down in Chile..is it strong enough to change the weather? with its dust clouds blocking out the sun..hence disrupting global warming? or no..its too small for that?
Looking beyond tomorrow, there appears to be an elevated chance of severe weather in TX/OK on Monday. Not too often this year an area's highlighted at 30% chance for severe at D5.

Another heavy dose of rain coming into Orlando. Some areas have already seen .40" to .80" so far today.

Thanks dok henson!

I am in a slight risk on Day 3. YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here it comes again!

Orlando
Here's a look at this intense storm south of Tampa

Quoting 13. CybrTeddy:

Looking beyond tomorrow, there appears to be an elevated chance of severe weather in TX/OK on Monday. Not too often this year an area's highlighted at 30% chance for severe at D5.




Thanks for calling this out, CybrTeddy. My comment about the Day 5 outlook read "Sunday," but it was actually this 30% area on Monday that I was referring to. Fixed!

--Bob H.
Quoting 12. LargoFl:

say guys..this volcano eruption down in Chile..is it strong enough to change the weather? with its dust clouds blocking out the sun..hence disrupting global warming? or no..its too small for that?


It will impact a very minimal scale....But you do bring up a very important point....Many people would like to invest trillions of dollars for AGW mitigation but when the big volcano hits not an if a when trillions of dollars wasted....A better analogy would be building a levee for trillions of dollars knowing the water will rise yrs down the road end result the levee did not protect....Adaptation is going to be interesting....
On an earthquake related note, the link (below) reference a new study recognizing that "fracking" and the related oil/energy industry practice of high pressure fluid injection underground to get to the gas and oil has indeed caused earthquakes The point is that Oklahoma might have more to worry about than their annual tornado season based on this report:

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has taken its first stab at quantifying the hazard from earthquakes associated with oil and gas development. The assessment, released in a preliminary report today, identifies 17 areas in eight states with elevated seismic hazard. And geologists now say that such induced earthquakes could potentially be large, up to magnitude 7, which is big enough to cause buildings to collapse and widespread damage.

So far, the largest induced earthquake in the United States has been the 2011 magnitude-5.6 earthquake in Prague, Oklahoma, which damaged dozens of buildings. But geoscientists now say there is no reason why oil and gas operations couldn't end up triggering something much larger. There are certainly faults large enough to produce a magnitude 7, says Justin Rubinstein, a geophysicist at USGS in Menlo Park, California, and a co-author of the new report. We can't rule this out.

http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/04/oil-and- gas-operations-could-trigger-large-earthquakes




Marine Warning for Lake O
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ610-231900-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0045.150423T1729Z-150423T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 129 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL...
LOCATED NEAR CALUSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...SMALL HAIL...
HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
Theme song for severe weather for the coming days. Tune is this.

Yo listen up here's a story
About a little storm that lives in a weather world
And all day and all night and everything he sees
Is just stormy like him inside and outside
Storm his house with a blue little Rain shower
And a blue thundervette
And everything is stormy for him and himself
And everybody around
'Cause he ain't got nobody to thunder to

I'm storm boom boom boom boom...
I have a storm house with a stormy window.
Grey is the colour of all that I wear.
Storm are the streets and all the trees are too.
I have a storm friend and she is so stormy.
Storms are the people here that walk around,
Storms like my thundervette, it's in and outside.
Storms are the words I say and what I think.
Blue are the feelings that live inside me.

I'm storm boom boom boom boom...

I have a storm house with a stormy window.
Grey is the colour of all that I wear.
Storm are the streets and all the trees are too.
I have a storm friend and she is so stormy.
storm are the people here that walk around,
storm like my thundervette, it's in and outside.
storm are the words I say and what I think.
storm are the feelings that live inside me.

I'm storm boom boom boom boom...

Inside and outside storm his house
With the stormy little window
And a blue thundervette
And everything is stormy for him and himself
And everybody around
'Cause he ain't got nobody to thunder to

I'm stormy boom boom boom boom...

Quoting 1. LargoFl:




Incredible scale. I think in Poland level 2 is maximum possible
Quoting 12. LargoFl:

say guys..this volcano eruption down in Chile..is it strong enough to change the weather? with its dust clouds blocking out the sun..hence disrupting global warming? or no..its too small for that?


Depends how long it keeps erupting for, and how big the eruptions get. So far, it's rated 'at least 4' on the volcanic explosivity index (VEI). A '4' roughly means about 0.1 cu km of ejected dust, so far. Pinatubo ejected about 10 cu km of dust, so it'll have hardly any effect on climate, if it's done its worst. '5' would be about 1 cu km.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
WESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA.
..
NORTH CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT


* AT 141 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKEWOOD RANCH...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF BRADENTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKEWOOD RANCH...MYAKKA CITY...THE MEADOWS...LAKE MANATEE STATE
PARK AND HIDDEN RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
WESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
NORTH CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 141 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKEWOOD RANCH...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF BRADENTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKEWOOD RANCH...MYAKKA CITY...THE MEADOWS...LAKE MANATEE STATE
PARK AND HIDDEN RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.


First Severe Thunderstorm Warning Of The Day!!!
Quoting 62901IL:


First Severe Thunderstorm Warning Of The Day!!!


Temperatures in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the 70s across the southern half of the state. The sun has been out all day down here.
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:




Local met said at noon temps could reach the mid 90's this weekend with heat index closer to 105 to 110. Insane!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Local met said at noon temps could reach the mid 90's this weekend with heat index closer to 105 to 110. Insane!


Not sure if I'm ready for that.
Quoting 12. LargoFl:

say guys..this volcano eruption down in Chile..is it strong enough to change the weather? with its dust clouds blocking out the sun..hence disrupting global warming? or no..its too small for that?
Keep in mind that the volcano is deep in the southern hemisphere of Earth, down close to Antarctica (though not REAL close). Since little of what happens in the southern hemisphere atmosphere crosses the equator, it would have to be very massive to affect north of the equator. However, the ash could be carried by winds to Antarctica and get deposited as a dark coating on the ice sheet. That would not be good.
Quoting 33. Sfloridacat5:



Not sure if I'm ready for that.


I didn't see anything that high from the NWS but that is what the guy said on WFTV here in Orlando at noon. He could be right as winds are expected to strengthen from the WSW over the weekend and that wind direction this time of you is normally a very hot one.
SFWMD weather stations picked up a 50 mph wind north or Lake O with the cell that's now over Lake O.

Storm clouds move in Thursday morning over St. Pete Beach. (Photo: Tony Rojek, staff)

Quoting 34. CaneFreeCR:

Keep in mind that the volcano is deep in the southern hemisphere of Earth, down close to Antarctica (though not REAL close). Since little of what happens in the southern hemisphere atmosphere crosses the equator, it would have to be very massive to affect north of the equator. However, the ash could be carried by winds to Antarctica and get deposited as a dark coating on the ice sheet. That would not be good.


Does that apply to the stratosphere? It's mostly the SO2 ejected into the stratosphere which is responsible for the cooling effect. It can hang around up there for a couple of years. SO2 in the troposphere gets rained out as sulphuric acid in a few days.
Quoting 37. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Storm clouds move in Thursday morning over St. Pete Beach. (Photo: Tony Rojek, staff)




Heavy rain here in Longwood yet 30 miles NNE toward yet dewpoints in the low 50's with sunny skies. This boundary is literally sitting right across from Tampa to Orlando right now. However I suspect sometime in the next 2 to 3 hours huge rise in Dewpoints over in Daytona as well.
Quoting 37. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Storm clouds move in Thursday morning over St. Pete Beach. (Photo: Tony Rojek, staff)


Is been 10 month since i have seen severe weather for my area.
Quoting 19. yoboi:



It will impact a very minimal scale....But you do bring up a very important point....Many people would like to invest trillions of dollars for AGW mitigation but when the big volcano hits not an if a when trillions of dollars wasted....A better analogy would be building a levee for trillions of dollars knowing the water will rise yrs down the road end result the levee did not protect....Adaptation is going to be interesting....


Volcanic effects are ephemeral. Even Pinatubo, the largest of the last 100 years, which sent up a BIG SO2 plume, only had a measurable global temperature effect that lasted about two years. The climate trend quickly rebounded from that. The scale of volcanic event that it would take to undo the AGW trends would be more of a Toba-style supereruption; and the cure is worse than the disease if that were to happen.
Both Euro and GFS are showing 3" to 5" of rain across the FL Penisula Tuesday & Wednesday. That would be pretty remarkable as most areas are 1" to 3" above normal for the month of April already.
The very bottom half of South Florida, from Naples-Palm Beach counties down to the Florida Keys still needs more rain to combat some of the recent deficits but at least Lake O is getting some decent rain from this passage:

62 mph wind gust reported at Lake O.
Thanks for the interesting Post BOB,
Hey Ped. 88F here and raining... Miserable... Wish I was back in Alaska. How are you doing? Get any rain?
Quoting 47. Dakster:

Hey Ped. 88F here and raining... Miserable... Wish I was back in Alaska. How are you doing? Get any rain?


Get used to the rain as if you think the GFS is wet then you should see the Euro. It seems there is no end in sight. A dry day here or there but overall very wet pattern really taking hold of FL. Our "Dry Season" in Orlando only consisted of October & March.
Quoting 47. Dakster:

Hey Ped. 88F here and raining... Miserable... Wish I was back in Alaska. How are you doing? Get any rain?


Nope, not a drop, they said this Morning that there was some Snow in the Mountains. 67.6F here, 39.3F at your rental...
Quoting 41. schistkicker:



Volcanic effects are ephemeral. Even Pinatubo, the largest of the last 100 years, which sent up a BIG SO2 plume, only had a measurable global temperature effect that lasted about two years. The climate trend quickly rebounded from that. The scale of volcanic event that it would take to undo the AGW trends would be more of a Toba-style supereruption; and the cure is worse than the disease if that were to happen.


You are basing things off a 100 yr event...Yes we are due for some multi thousand year events....When that happens you and I and no one else can emit enough CO2 into the atmosphere to keep us from an ice age....
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:

Both Euro and GFS are showing 3" to 5" of rain across the FL Penisula Tuesday & Wednesday. That would be pretty remarkable as most areas are 1" to 3" above normal for the month of April already.


Yeah it would be great for west coastal areas, which are starting to improve in some areas. After having no rain at all for all of April up until Monday my parents said they got 0.71 on Monday and 1.21 today which is heading in the right the direction. Hopefully South Florida and west coastal FL areas will get the brunt of next weeks rain maker for additional catch up.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

FLZ072-168-172-231930-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
248 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL
CLOUD OVER GODFREY ROAD...OR OVER MARGATE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45
TO 55 MPH...SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION.
THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...CORAL SPRINGS...POMPANO BEACH...DEERFIELD
BEACH...MARGATE...LIGHTHOUSE POINT...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...
COCONUT CREEK...OAKLAND PARK...PARKLAND...HILLSBORO BEACH...SEA
RANCH LAKES...GODFREY ROAD...NORTH POMPANO BEACH...RAMBLEWOOD
EAST...HILLSBORO PINES...HILLSBORO RANCHES...NORTH ANDREWS
GARDENS...TERRA MAR AND POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&
Quoting 37. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Storm clouds move in Thursday morning over St. Pete Beach. (Photo: Tony Rojek, staff)




Yeah parts of Pinellas had a flood advisory earlier and some localized areas in Pinellas had 2-3 inches earlier today, where my parents are at in Pinellas, they had 1.21 and said some of these were pretty strong in their area, although surprisingly little lightning. It's probably because they were morning cells. usually morning activity has very little lightning until deep into the rainy season when even the mornings can be unstable or given a strong enough upper disturbance.

Today's upper energy was very weak but plenty of moisture and some weak shear made it interesting in the Tampa Bay area. Some of these cells had hooks on them and rotation, thankfully no tornado warnings issued though, just good old soaking rain that much needed in St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Tampa, and Bradenton, which all missed out throughout April on all the sea breeze action.
Quoting 38. yonzabam:



Does that apply to the stratosphere? It's mostly the SO2 ejected into the stratosphere which is responsible for the cooling effect. It can hang around up there for a couple of years. SO2 in the troposphere gets rained out as sulphuric acid in a few days.
There doesn't seem to be much circulation at all, even at the stratosphere level, that crosses the equator. Eventually some might work its way across but the amount would be very small unless it was a catastrophic eruption, on the scale of the Deccan Traps or something really big. The other effects would be much more noticeable if that happened. But the southern hemisphere might get cooled if Calbuco really blows its top. Worry more about the Turrialba volcano here in Costa Rica -- it's ramped up activity some recently and could blow a lot of junk out, and it's in the northern hemisphere. (Here's what it looked like this morning.) img src="">
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:



Yeah it would be great for west coastal areas, which are starting to improve in some areas. After having no rain at all for all of April up until Monday my parents said they got 0.71 on Monday and 1.21 today which is heading in the right the direction. Hopefully South Florida and west coastal FL areas will get the brunt of next weeks rain maker for additional catch up.


You can clearly contribute this unusual pattern the last 2 weeks to El-Nino as it appears both BOM & CPC could declare Moderate El-Nino conditions with a reading across Nino 3.4 or 1.1C next week. With this continued strengthening El-Nino I suspect we will see our weather pattern become even more eradic going forward. Also a wet pattern as is in place now but not exactly text book to what one would expect of the Wet Season. My point is this pattern were in now may continue into Summer.

Quoting 44. Sfloridacat5:

62 mph wind gust reported at Lake O.


Did the NWS issue a warning?
Quoting 57. Jedkins01:



Did the NWS issue a warning?
yes...post 52 jedkins I posted it earlier
One only has to look at the Dupage Severe Weather Site for up to the moment warnings.

We have posted it like 4,000 times in 10 years now.

: )

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Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 141 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING PAGO PAGO AS - NSTU 859 PM SST WED APR 22 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 137 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1259 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 734 PM HST WED APR 22 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 734 PM HST WED APR 22 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1205 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1139 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
TORNADO WARNING     SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 1115 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 1109 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
Quoting 55. StormTrackerScott:



You can clearly contribute this unusual pattern the last 2 weeks to El-Nino as it appears both BOM & CPC could declare Moderate El-Nino conditions with a reading across Nino 3.4 or 1.1C next week. With this continued strengthening El-Nino I suspect we will see our weather pattern become even more eradic going forward. Also a wet pattern as is in place now but not exactly text book to what one would expect of the Wet Season. My point is this pattern were in now may continue into Summer.




Yeah my experience with El Nino summers/rainy seasons is that usually they start early and typically feature a lot of stalled fronts and upper disturbances throughout the summer and sometimes lead to really heavy rain events on the west coast of Florida once water temps get warm enough providing the right convergence. The presence of fronts and upper level systems in Summer often leads to more severe weather as well. Because of this, they can be atypical in such a pattern with less of the sunny early and 4-6 PM thunderstorms type pattern.

Not saying that will happen this time, but sometimes it does.
Quoting 50. yoboi:


You are basing things off a 100 yr event...Yes we are due for some multi thousand year events....When that happens you and I and no one else can emit enough CO2 into the atmosphere to keep us from an ice age....

That, sir, is complete nonsense start to finish.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MAY TYPE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG
EXTENDING THE SOUTH FLORIDA AIRMASS WHERE LOWER TO MID 70S DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY EXIST. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FROM THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD ALONG WITH MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS WILL PREVENT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. RADAR
SIGNATURES HAVE ALREADY INDICATED POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OF OVER 45 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE TODAY WITH PWAT DROPPING AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR SO
BY SATURDAY. SO TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH MOST ACTION
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES VERY WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH
THIS BEING THE FOCUS FOR AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS COAST. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE EAST COAST
HEATING UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN
UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND
MOVES EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND INTO NORTH
FLORIDA/ALABAMA GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO MOVES INTO THAT SAME GENERAL AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH TIMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALSO. DUE TO THE
GFS DEPICTING A STRONGER AND DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH, IT ALSO HAS
A STRONGER PUSH OF A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE!
Quoting 58. LargoFl:

yes...post 52 jedkins I posted it earlier


That's a special weather statement not a severe thunderstorm warning, they issue those for thunderstorms that are strong but aren't quite severe.

It's possible radar velocities didn't look that bad but that thunderstorm produced a sudden strong microburst anyway in between radar scans or something like that, which may explain the lack of a warning.
Quoting 61. Jedkins01:



Yeah my experience with El Nino summers/rainy seasons is that usually they start early and typically feature a lot of stalled fronts and upper disturbances throughout the summer and sometimes lead to really heavy rain events on the west coast of Florida once water temps get warm enough providing the right convergence. The presence of fronts and upper level systems in Summer often leads to more severe weather as well. Because of this, they can be atypical in such a pattern with less of the sunny early and 4-6 PM thunderstorms type pattern.

Not saying that will happen this time, but sometimes it does.


Your right but also remember we will likely see a early exit of the Wet Season come September only to have the rains come back later in October as the Southern jet gets more established come Fall.
Hopefully Jim Cantore is not on a flight right now to South Florida to report from the shores of Lake O later on the whitecaps........
Not hard to tell where this boundary is located and with full sun out to heat up the atmosphere we could see another round of storms in later today or this evening.

Dewpoints
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

FLZ063-066-067-070-232015-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-GLADES FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
HENDRY FL-
327 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR
NORTHWESTERN BROWARD...SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH...NORTHEASTERN
COLLIER...SOUTH CENTRAL GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

* AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION
OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION.
THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY...LABELLE...MOORE HAVEN...LAKE HARBOR...
MONTURA...ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE REFUGE...DEVILS GARDEN...ORTONA...
PORT LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...HOLEY LAND
WILDLIFE REFUGE...OKEELANTA...HARLEM AND LAKE HICPOCHEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&
Quoting 62. Misanthroptimist:


That, sir, is complete nonsense start to finish.


Magnitude 8 Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. A mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra (Indonesia), about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of Tambora of 1815 and Pinatubo of 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), and the controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs, creating a "genetic bottleneck".

Link
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ610-232030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0050.150423T1928Z-150423T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
328 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 328 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...LOCATED OVER MOORE
HAVEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

Quoting 30. hydrus:




Yeah the GFS and the Euro really dump the rain on us here and throughout much of Florida, April to date precip is 5.91 here and all fell during that crazy pattern of 9 days straight of measurable rain from the 12th through the 20th, if models are correct the next pattern could bring another 2-4 inches, that will put us into a rainy season month like total, yet April is the driest month of the year on average in Tallahassee. Ironically it started much drier than even average for the first 2 weeks with only 0.05 here through April 11.
This could be the next round of storms forming south of the FL Panhandle.

I'm hoping the storms continue to build on the west end of the line.


Hey Ped. 88F here and raining... Miserable... Wish I was back in Alaska. How are you doing? Get any rain?

i understand that feeling......in probably 5 years....we will move back to florida as jessica has a house and property there......and as much as i will enjoy the fishing......and a mild dec-feb..i sure as heck don't look forward to the weather....heat...and bugs....we both agree ruidoso nm we would like better....but being close to family makes florida the best option
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

FLZ072-172-232015-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
329 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL
CLOUD OVER MARGATE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45
TO 55 MPH...SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION.
THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...CORAL SPRINGS...POMPANO BEACH...
TAMARAC...MARGATE...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...COCONU T CREEK...OAKLAND
PARK...NORTH LAUDERDALE...LAUDERDALE LAKES...WILTON MANORS...SEA
RANCH LAKES...LAZY LAKE...BROADVIEW-POMPANO PARK...DOWNTOWN FORT
LAUDERDALE...TWIN LAKES...VILLAGE PARK...PORT EVERGLADES AND PALM
AIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

One only has to look at the Dupage Severe Weather Site for up to the moment warnings.

We have posted it like 4,000 times in 10 years now.



you mean...there's a short version that doesn't take up half the page...and i can click on whatever severe area suits my fancy and it will take me directly there?

nahhhh....too complicated...my fingers can't take the stress of the extra keystroke
I'm doing my rain dance. So close but yet so far.

Saturday may get interesting also.............................................. .................................
The western end of the line is barely holding together. Storms are forming just as the move on shore.
per baynews9...........Rainfall through 12:30 p.m.
Pinellas Park 2.19
Largo 2.10
Indian Rocks Bch 1.93
Seminole 1.54
North St. Pete 1.35
Downtown Clearwater 1.22
Lealman 1.03
Madeira Beach 0.70
Tarpon Springs 0.60
Dunedin 0.58
Clearwater Beach 0.54
Downtown St. Pete 0.27
my fellow Floridian bloggers. Next week especially mid week next week looks exciting with the atmosphere primed for a severe weather outbreak. Low level moisture, heating of the surface and upper level support from a forecasted strong area of low pressure that will skirt the Northern gulf Coast. This is only preliminary but the NWS in Miami has already put out a statement for next week. Very active pattern setting up. El Nino that little friggin boy
Quoting LargoFl:
Saturday may get interesting also.............................................. .................................


And next week should be interesting. Could see severe weather from the Southern Plains all the way to Florida.
Quoting 75. ricderr:


Hey Ped. 88F here and raining... Miserable... Wish I was back in Alaska. How are you doing? Get any rain?

i understand that feeling......in probably 5 years....we will move back to florida as jessica has a house and property there......and as much as i will enjoy the fishing......and a mild dec-feb..i sure as heck don't look forward to the weather....heat...and bugs....we both agree ruidoso nm we would like better....but being close to family makes florida the best option


Heat and bugs are fun, it's a sign of wild life thriving.
Just what Louisiana needs. More heavy rain next Tuesday.
Quoting 65. Jedkins01:



That's a special weather statement not a severe thunderstorm warning, they issue those for thunderstorms that are strong but aren't quite severe.

It's possible radar velocities didn't look that bad but that thunderstorm produced a sudden strong microburst anyway in between radar scans or something like that, which may explain the lack of a warning.


I don't think they issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over water:

e. Severe Thunderstorm Moves Over Water:
1) If a severe thunderstorm moves over coastal waters, a Special Marine Warning
will be issued (see NWSI 10-313 for details on Special Marine Warnings)
Quoting 82. WeatherConvoy:

my fellow Floridian bloggers. Next week especially mid week next week looks exciting with the atmosphere primed for a severe weather outbreak. Low level moisture, heating of the surface and upper level support from a forecasted strong area of low pressure that will skirt the Northern gulf Coast. This is only preliminary but the NWS in Miami has already put out a statement for next week. Very active pattern setting up. El Nino that little friggin boy


Here is this released by the CPC.



Tampa Bay area. Should be an interesting start to next week.
Good evening with another stunning video of Calbuco with more lightning than even in Florida :-)



Here we go. Active evening setting up for C FL. As there are storms forming on the W C Sea breeze & action moving in from the NE Gulf.

It seems to always get hotter here than forecast when we get warming trends. The forecast high today was 87, but right now we have:

Partly Cloudy

90°F

32°C
Humidity 31%
Wind Speed NW 10 mph
Barometer 29.90 in (1012.5 mb)
Dewpoint 55°F (13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 88°F (31°C)
Last update on 23 Apr 3:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


The nice thing is, with dew points only in the 50's it doesn't feel very hot to me. It feels really nice actually.
Quoting 75. ricderr:


Hey Ped. 88F here and raining... Miserable... Wish I was back in Alaska. How are you doing? Get any rain?

i understand that feeling......in probably 5 years....we will move back to florida as jessica has a house and property there......and as much as i will enjoy the fishing......and a mild dec-feb..i sure as heck don't look forward to the weather....heat...and bugs....we both agree ruidoso nm we would like better....but being close to family makes florida the best option


I hear you on that. BEing back here without any family - this isn't my home anymore. It doesn't even feel the same.
Ped - You are making m jealous with that 39.3F back in ER, AK....

The current split flow of the subtropical jet over Florida is aiding the forward "speed" of the t-storms and the straight-line wind issues along with the sheer. It could be worse, from a tornadic standpoint, if it were also driven by an accompanying low pressure system in the gulf which is not the case at the moment. 
   
Quoting 90. StormTrackerScott:

Here we go. Active evening setting up for C FL. As there are storms forming on the W C Sea breeze & action moving in from the NE Gulf.


scott did your area get a lot of rain also today?
Quoting 83. Sfloridacat5:



And next week should be interesting. Could see severe weather from the Southern Plains all the way to Florida.

yeah cat we need to stay alert next week for sure..just hope no tornado's
Quoting 86. nrtiwlnvragn:



I don't think they issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over water:

e. Severe Thunderstorm Moves Over Water:
1) If a severe thunderstorm moves over coastal waters, a Special Marine Warning
will be issued (see NWSI 10-313 for details on Special Marine Warnings)


Of course, but we were talking about an SPC report of 62 mph measured winds, the SPC shows land wind reports, not water.

Quoting Jedkins01:
It seems to always get hotter here than forecast when we get warming trends. The forecast high today was 87, but right now we have:

Partly Cloudy

90F

32C
Humidity 31%
Wind Speed NW 10 mph
Barometer 29.90 in (1012.5 mb)
Dewpoint 55F (13C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 88F (31C)
Last update on 23 Apr 3:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39N Lon: 84.35W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


The nice thing is, with dew points only in the 50's it doesn't feel very hot to me. It feels really nice actually.



Yeah, we had a high of 90 today but with over 60% humidity and dewpoints in the 70s.

Dewpoints in the 50s is comfortable weather.
Interesting, there is a tornado report also near where that wind report was near lake Okeechobee, although this was a report of a water spout moving onshore, so maybe it didn't show up on radar.
Quoting 95. LargoFl:

scott did your area get a lot of rain also today?


.64" in Longwood
Quoting 98. Sfloridacat5:




Yeah, we had a high of 90 today, but with over 60% humidity and dewpoints in the 70s.

Dewpoints in the 50s is comfortable weather.


Yeah definitely, it doesn't even feel hot here in my opinion. It's hilarious because dewpoints in the 50's would be considered humid for people out west like in southern CA, yet for me it feels like desert air, lol.

Honestly though I don't mind the heat and humidity too bad in Florida now that I'm used it. I can put up with it a lot longer than continuous cold, that's for sure. And we do get a break from it the rest of the year. Plus, I love the sounds of thriving wildlife at night during summer that come with heat and humidity, and of course the rain.
Quoting 97. Jedkins01:



Of course, but we were talking about an SPC report of 62 mph measured winds, the SPC shows land wind reports, not water.




My understanding it was over water. Currently version 2
my apologies for the dupe post - Scott had already posted it.
That PDO looking strange.

UKMET in "Spring Training"

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.04.2015
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.6N 75.7W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.04.2015 34.0N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.04.2015 33.9N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.04.2015 34.7N 58.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.04.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


Link
Quoting 107. nrtiwlnvragn:

UKMET in "Spring Training"

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.04.2015
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.6N 75.7W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.04.2015 34.0N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.04.2015 33.9N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.04.2015 34.7N 58.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.04.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


Link



At least it did well this past winter.
We've got some towering cumulus clouds moving into the Fort Myers area.
Still don't know if we'll see any rain. It looks like the western end of the line has about given up (so typical for precipitation coming from the north for us)
Quoting 70. yoboi:


The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of Tambora of 1815 and Pinatubo of 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), and the controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs, creating a "genetic bottleneck".

I'm well aware of mega-eruptions and their effects. That is why I said your previous post was complete nonsense. At the end of that 6-10 years (which will definitely be cold) the vast majority of the CO2 we pumped into atmosphere will still be there, so the warming will simply pick-up pretty close to where it left off. No ice age even from a Toba-type event.
Quoting 106. Gearsts:

That PDO looking strange.




What do you mean by strange?
Quoting 111. Tropicsweatherpr:



What do you mean by strange?
Very warm east of Japan.
Should be cold?
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:45 PM PDT on April 23, 2015
Overcast
63.9 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 48 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Weather sucks here, Normal (KRAL) 77 °F/52 °F, low was 58.7


Looks like we're done with the rain for today. It's pretty clear here.
115. wxmod
World carbon monoxide 3 day average from NASA. Hey, how bout those people who passed out in a jet and nothing's wrong with the aircraft?

at post 104-

YES!! YES!!! YES!!!!

okthxbai
Quoting 115. wxmod:

Hey, how bout those people who passed out in a jet and nothing's wrong with the aircraft?



Link to that?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Looks like we're done with the rain for today. It's pretty clear here.


We've been hot and sunny all day. It's like we're not even part of Florida (the desert S.W. of Florida).
If it wasn't for June-Sept we'd probably have cactus and tumble weeds like Arizona.
Quoting 116. aquak9:

at post 104-

YES!! YES!!! YES!!!!

okthxbai


Having a "Theres something about Mary" moment water puppy?
Quoting 117. Dakster:



Link to that?



121. wxmod
Quoting 115. wxmod:

World carbon monoxide 3 day average from NASA. Hey, how bout those people who passed out in a jet and nothing's wrong with the aircraft?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/04 /23/jet-unconscious-emergency-landing/26227239/




Quoting 119. Dakster:


Having a "Theres something about Mary" moment water puppy?

Have you seen the old shampoo commercial? yes, exactly like that. :)
Quoting 118. Sfloridacat5:



We've been hot and sunny all day. It's like we're not even part of Florida (the desert S.W. of Florida).
If it wasn't for June-Sept we'd probably have cactus and tumble weeds like Arizona.


Interestingly, my location (NW Tampa) has been on the low end of the last bunch of rain events. Last year, it was the opposite and I got totally drilled every time the area saw widespread rain. I had 0.63" today, but most of the Tampa Bay area (especially Pinellas and Manatee) had 2 to 3 inches. My thought is that it all evens out, so you're due for a wet period soon.
Quoting 103. nrtiwlnvragn:



My understanding it was over water. Currently version 2


But that warning is east of the southeast coast, not over Lake Okeechobee.

Looks like the report may be over water after looking up the coordinates of the report, which is strange because I thought the SPC only logged severe weather reports if they occurred on land.
Quoting 118. Sfloridacat5:



We've been hot and sunny all day. It's like we're not even part of Florida (the desert S.W. of Florida).
If it wasn't for June-Sept we'd probably have cactus and tumble weeds like Arizona.


Keep in mind though that Ft. Myers does have one of the most dramatic differences between the rainy and dry seasons in the state. Yes you have still been much too dry still even compared to the average, but Ft. Myers does average like 80% of it's yearly precip during the rainy season or something around there, so it usually will be more dramatic than some other location in the state, but this is definitely more so than usual.
Quoting 124. Jedkins01:



But that warning is east of the southeast coast, not over Lake Okeechobee.

Looks like the report may be over water after looking up the coordinates of the report, which is strange because I thought the SPC only logged severe weather reports if they occurred on land.


Nope, they logged the buoy report of 87 mph the other day. And that was a good distance off-shore.
Ended up with .48 inches today in downtown Orlando bringing my total for April to 4.31 inches. almost a full inch above the 30 year average.
We got a small shower moving through Fort Myers (no thunder/lightning or wind).
I've got .04" (updated) at my location so far. Not a frog strangler that's for sure.

I'll have to wait and see how much they pick up at Page Field our official station.

130. wxmod
Hoppin on an airliner?
Better check out the carbon monoxide report first.
NASA carbon monoxide measurements near Hawaii off the charts.

Quoting 125. tampabaymatt:





Look at that gust front going across Miami-dade county!
Quoting 127. Astrometeor:



Nope, they logged the buoy report of 87 mph the other day. And that was a good distance off-shore.


Interesting, yeah I always thought the SPC only showed land reports, glad I know now lol.
Quoting 132. Jedkins01:



Interesting, yeah I always thought the SPC only showed land reports, glad I know now lol.



Occasionally they show offshore buoy reports, especially off louisiana.
Quoting 128. Naga5000:

Ended up with .48 inches today in downtown Orlando bringing my total for April to 4.31 inches. almost a full inch above the 30 year average.
Meanwhile, Naples received a whopping 0.03" of rain today. We can add that to yesterday's Noahic deluge of 0.24", along with the other 0.11" we've received earlier in the month, and we're all the way up to 0.35" for April. Yep, a whole third of an inch or rain, leaving us down about 1.5" for the month and 4.73" for the year-to-date. Add to the the fact that it's been warmer than normal here on 52 of the past 57 days--including every day so far this month--and you can see that we're doing just peachy... ;-)
Haven't seen any posts lately from 'the world according to Sar.' Hope everything is OK.
atlanta weather=boaring
I have been fascinated on this blog with the mind of deniers. Physical properties of molecules from volcanoes are not questioned. Weird "theories" on magnetism, sunspots, and unknown "cycles" are considered as legitimate on their face. Earth day, CEOs recognizing the dangers of climate change, peer reviewed studies and Weather Underground itself are considered part of some "socialist" mega-conspiracy.
Even some weather learned individuals twisting into pretzels to promote the wrong views of their favorite denier met/blogger that for whom they have disturbingly many pet names.
I think Dr. Masters and Bob Henson are being quite conservative and fair with these blog posts as well as the many knowledgeable commenters here.
I can't understand why any serious person would nay-say all of this great information and perspective.
the fbi, cia, nwb, are cominig...run
Quoting 136. ATLsweather:
atlanta weather=boaring

raining pigs?
and for my weather report: it was snowing here a few minutes ago. Hit 70 only a few days ago.
Well, maybe, that would be kind of scary and strange, no other weather.
Quoting 137. wartsttocs:

I have been fascinated on this blog with the mind of deniers. Physical properties of molecules from volcanoes are not questioned. Weird "theories" on magnetism, sunspots, and unknown "cycles" are considered as legitimate on their face. Earth day, CEOs recognizing the dangers of climate change, peer reviewed studies and Weather Underground itself are considered part of some "socialist" mega-conspiracy.
Even some weather learned individuals twisting into pretzels to promote the wrong views of their favorite denier met/blogger that for whom they have disturbingly many pet names.
I think Dr. Masters and Bob Henson are being quite conservative and fair with these blog posts as well as the many knowledgeable commenters here.
I can't understand why any serious person would nay-say all of this great information and perspective.


This is one of the main reasons I'm against having the mods delete posts. If you don't like what people say then ignore it. But for me, the insight into the denier mindset is fascinating. I don't mean to sound like a jerk anthropologist studying some perceived inferior culture or anything, but I still think there's genuine benefit to keeping the opposing viewpoints out in the open where everyone can see them and critique them (and learn from them). Even if the deniers themselves don't ever change, perhaps at least they'll lose some of their sympathetic listeners the more they are shown to be wrong.
Quoting 142. MaineGuy:



This is one of the main reasons I'm against having the mods delete posts. If you don't like what people say then ignore it. But for me, the insight into the denier mindset is fascinating. I don't mean to sound like a jerk anthropologist studying some perceived inferior culture or anything, but I still think there's genuine benefit to keeping the opposing viewpoints out in the open where everyone can see them and critique them (and learn from them). Even if the deniers themselves don't ever change, perhaps at least they'll lose some of their sympathetic listeners the more they are shown to be wrong.
I have had to refrain many times as I somewhat agree..but I have grown to believe many are not deniers but purposeful idiots.
Quoting 137. wartsttocs:

Even some weather learned individuals twisting into pretzels to promote the wrong views of their favorite denier met/blogger that for whom they have disturbingly many pet names.
... [snip]

As a German who is living in a town with a big pretzel factory and, moreover, who is always looking for new English wordings, I appreciate this expression (not common in German) very much, thanks :-) This is how it's done today:

Have a good night everyone!
Quoting 143. Wolfberry:

I have had to refrain many times as I somewhat agree..but I have grown to believe many are not deniers but purposeful idiots.


I agree...
Quoting 145. Dakster:



I agree...



There are a lot of those here.... PI's that is
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Just what Louisiana needs. More heavy rain next Tuesday.


Is that 80dbz I see??????????????????????
Quoting 143. Wolfberry:

I have had to refrain many times as I somewhat agree..but I have grown to believe many are not deniers but purposeful idiots.


Yeah I don't even disagree with that. At the end of the day I think the result is the same.
Quoting 70. yoboi:



Magnitude 8 Mega-colossal eruptions
....blah blah blah.


Yes, the science community (and many here) are well aware of huge volcanic eruptions and their impacts. But short of a sustained volcanic event (like the Siberian Traps) even super-volcanoes are limited to short term climatological impacts.

A super volcano can impact climate for 10 years, with it's strongest impact being the first couple of years. Excess CO2 remains in the atmosphere for more than a century. Thermodynamics doesn't take a hike just because a volcano erupted. Once the smoke clears the same conditions that were warming the planet are still going to be there, and will go right back to warming the planet.

There probably wouldn't be many humans left after such an eruption, so just whatever life is left will be screwed. But life and the planet will continue on.
Quoting 137. wartsttocs:

I have been fascinated on this blog with the mind of deniers. Physical properties of molecules from volcanoes are not questioned. Weird "theories" on magnetism, sunspots, and unknown "cycles" are considered as legitimate on their face. Earth day, CEOs recognizing the dangers of climate change, peer reviewed studies and Weather Underground itself are considered part of some "socialist" mega-conspiracy.
Even some weather learned individuals twisting into pretzels to promote the wrong views of their favorite denier met/blogger that for whom they have disturbingly many pet names.
I think Dr. Masters and Bob Henson are being quite conservative and fair with these blog posts as well as the many knowledgeable commenters here.
I can't understand why any serious person would nay-say all of this great information and perspective.

I've mentioned all the above, and was deleted by the mods, 1st. amendment and opposing views are not welcomed in here, several friends who were conservative blogs and meteorologist were blasted, bashed and finally banned from this site, because they had an opposing view on Climate Change. I'll probably be suspended or banned for mentioning this!
Ahh, the poster today, Dust Devils!

Sorry, don't post here often, but the dust devil poster brings up memories and I read the blog daily

About 5 years ago, My mother moved to a rather bare patch of desert land, one can see for miles, nothing seemed to grow over about 18" high
We found out the following summer why. In the valley she moved into, I've seen towering dust devils easily over a mile high, several at once on occasion. She's had several blow through her property, one ripped the solar panels off her roof, another snapped off saplings she was trying to grow.

On a similar note, I remember being chased by a rather large snow devil whilst driving down US 285 in northern New Mexico on one winter day.
Very dry start to May for me.

Quoting 150. trunkmonkey:


I've mentioned all the above, and was deleted by the mods, 1st. amendment and opposing views are not welcomed in here, several friends who were conservative blogs and meteorologist were blasted, bashed and finally banned from this site, because they had an opposing view on Climate Change. I'll probably be suspended or banned for mentioning this!
trunkmonkey I personally have never had an aversion to your posts because you make good points and all tho we are different in our thinking, you are not, IMO, an attention hound and willfully ignorant. I learned so much in the beginning from denier comments because there are such sharp guys and gals on the blog. In addition, Ricky Roods blog, is incredible for really taking an informed look at Climate Change. There is absolutely no excuse, for somebody interested, to not draw an informed opinion.
El nino shields up for the hurricane season.
I like the observation and analysis even when I don't like it. An echo chamber is almost as boring as the weather forecast for Central Florida. (smiley face) We are heading into interesting times from a climatological perspective. The mindset of latching on to anything except AGW seems silly, but I can't wait to hear the next unlikely explanation. Being the witness is kind of fun.
Wow! That volcano video is spectacular!

We had rain here this morning ance evening, but so far nothing overly dramatic.... humidity has increased over the last two weeks, and if it keeps going this way the summer will be unbearable....

Quoting 152. Gearsts:

Very dry start to May for me.




The lakes are going down and if good rains don't fall in May,then a drought will be here for the summer.U.S drought monitor expands the dry area in PR.

Quoting 152. Gearsts:

Very dry start to May for me.




Unfortunately, I expect a very dry year in the E Caribbean given the El Nino :-(
Quoting 158. Gearsts:





The scenery almost looks like this here in St Barths .... very dry april. There is very little hope for the rest of the year.
For everybody! lol Link
Quoting 153. Wolfberry:

trunkmonkey I personally have never had an aversion to your posts because you make good points and all tho we are different in our thinking, you are not, IMO, an attention hound and willfully ignorant. I learned so much in the beginning from denier comments because there are such sharp guys and gals on the blog. In addition, Ricky Roods blog, is incredible for really taking an informed look at Climate Change. There is absolutely no excuse, for somebody interested, to not draw an informed opinion.


I couldn't have said this better myself.
163. xcool

















#BREAKING: 5.5 M Earthquake Strikes Off Coast of California - http://bit.

Quoting 158. Gearsts:



That forecast also suggests that The Bahamas is going to have a roost or a week ....
0z NAM significant tornado parameter at 10pm CDT tomorrow evening:

With Moderate El-Nino now being realized it does appear that we will now be on our way to Strong El-Nino in 2 months time as a result of these persistent WWB upcoming.



167. beell
Quoting 165. TropicalAnalystwx13:

0z NAM significant tornado parameter at 10pm CDT tomorrow evening:




Check it out at 4AM!

A bit of caution w/which formulation used to calculate STP. That one is a bit different than what is used by the SPC-which uses effective SRH, and shear along with mean layer CAPE and and LCL (as opposed to surface based CAPE and LCL).

SPC product yields an STP around 5 in the same general area.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Get used to the rain as if you think the GFS is wet then you should see the Euro. It seems there is no end in sight. A dry day here or there but overall very wet pattern really taking hold of FL. Our "Dry Season" in Orlando only consisted of October & March.


Hue???

All models have a significant cooldown(starting Wed/Thurs) with a prolonged dry out that follows.
Quoting 167. beell:



Check it out at 4AM!

A bit of caution w/which formulation used to calculate STP. That one is a bit different than what is used by the SPC-which uses effective SRH, and shear along with mean layer CAPE and and LCL (as opposed to surface based CAPE and LCL).

SPC product yields an STP around 5 in the same general area.


Yeah I like the SPC's effective SRH product it's important in the plains on days when a cap may make or break an event since effective SRH is linked to a parcels buoyancy. It gives a good depiction of how much is SRH is actually useful in considering for a severe event.
Yeah, a fixed layer STP will often spike fairly high during nocturnal hours because two components to the calculation, a fixed layer helicity and LCL height, become drastically more "favorable", outpacing the drop in instability/CAPE that naturally comes at night.

Quoting 134. Neapolitan:

Meanwhile, Naples received a whopping 0.03" of rain today. We can add that to yesterday's Noahic deluge of 0.24", along with the other 0.11" we've received earlier in the month, and we're all the way up to 0.35" for April. Yep, a whole third of an inch or rain, leaving us down about 1.5" for the month and 4.73" for the year-to-date. Add to the the fact that it's been warmer than normal here on 52 of the past 57 days--including every day so far this month--and you can see that we're doing just peachy... ;-)



LOL
174. yoboi
Quoting 110. Misanthroptimist:


I'm well aware of mega-eruptions and their effects. That is why I said your previous post was complete nonsense. At the end of that 6-10 years (which will definitely be cold) the vast majority of the CO2 we pumped into atmosphere will still be there, so the warming will simply pick-up pretty close to where it left off. No ice age even from a Toba-type event.


Well if we get -10 F for ten yrs you are saying no big deal....FWIW the link I provided was from Dr Masters...Basically you are disagreeing with what he had to say...We can easily walk this back to the context....


Sure looks like an El Niño to me
Quoting 151. WXColorado:

Ahh, the poster today, Dust Devils!

Sorry, don't post here often, but the dust devil poster brings up memories and I read the blog daily

About 5 years ago, My mother moved to a rather bare patch of desert land, one can see for miles, nothing seemed to grow over about 18" high
We found out the following summer why. In the valley she moved into, I've seen towering dust devils easily over a mile high, several at once on occasion. She's had several blow through her property, one ripped the solar panels off her roof, another snapped off saplings she was trying to grow.

On a similar note, I remember being chased by a rather large snow devil whilst driving down US 285 in northern New Mexico on one winter day.


I mentioned one here a few days ago - it was right on the edge of a cell (that never quite reached us) so I wasn't sure if it was still a dust devil. Picked up a bee hive, tossed the barrel it was sitting on against the fence a few feet away, then dropped the hive on its side. (I rescued the hive, minimal damage.) Scared the horses in the pasture next door, then ripped grasses and tumbleweeds out of the ground in the ditch the other side. Never saw one that big before.
Here in NE Kansas we're still down a good bit as well (2.34" to normal 3.77"). January was the only month we received anywhere near an average amount; actually be it by a whole .05", would you believe it? YTD total precipitation is 4.75" when it should be 8.7". That's, uh, not so great. SW/South Central KS is even worse for wear. Same goes for OK. I know that Cali and FL are getting quite a bit of attention, but drought in the breadbasket isn't a great sign.

Umm hmmm...Subtropical Hurricane Ana?



Quoting 170. jpsb:

Peering Inside Yellowstone’s Supervolcano

The article was fine... then I made the mistake of scrolling down to the comment section. "Blah blah blah Al Gore blah blah Al Gore, etc. Also one about Obama, blah blah, etc.
Quoting 178. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Umm hmmm...Subtropical Hurricane Ana?






thats a pretty powerful low for this time of year


Equatorial SST's for the last 30 years... pretty interesting how huge the 1997 El Nino was
Quoting 174. yoboi:


Well if we get -10 F for ten yrs you are saying no big deal....FWIW the link I provided was from Dr Masters...Basically you are disagreeing with what he had to say...We can easily walk this back to the context....

The link you provided said nothing about such an eruption starting an ice age. You did. So I appear to be disagreeing with you.

Atmospheric CO2 when Toba erupted was ~230ppm. Currently, atmospheric CO2 is 400ppm. It is virtually certain that ten years is sufficient time to remove enough CO2 to allow an ice age to get started. And that's ignoring the fact that we'd burn a lot more fossil fuels to keep warm --a non-factor in previous ice ages.
Good morning from Germany, enjoying the last very bright day thanks to high "Quila" which should soon be ousted by Atlantic low "Vasco". Bad for human weekend activities, but very good for crops and gardens!



And here is the latest of the bad storms which hit India and Australia earlier this week:

India/Bihar storm:
55 Dead, Over 80 Injured in Storm-Hit Bihar
All India | Edited by Shyam Balasubramanian (With inputs from PTI) | Updated: April 24, 2015 07:50 IST
Patna: The toll in the killer storm in Bihar has risen to 55 from 48 as more bodies were found overnight in the 12 ravaged districts today. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh is set to tour Purnia, accompanied by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, to take stock of the situation. ...
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar made an aerial survey of Bhagalpur and neighbouring storm-hit areas on Thursday morning and held a meeting with officials, sources at the Chief Minister's office said.
He said there was no forecast about the storm which took the state by surprise and left a trail of devastation. ...




Australia/New South Wales storm:
'Records are being broken too often': Climate scientist says NSW storms are a sign of the future
9news.com.au, 8:47am April 24, 2015
Devastating storms in NSW are a sign of things to come as global temperatures rise, a climate scientist predicts.
The eight-year gap between a one-in-100 year storm in 2007 and another this week shows extreme events are occurring more frequently, says Professor Matthew England from the Climate Change Research Centre.
"Records are being broken far more often than they should be," he told ABC radio. ...


184. VR46L
Quoting 178. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Umm hmmm...Subtropical Hurricane Ana?






GT ..... Stop it !!!!!!!!

I want some summer this year
Quoting 180. nwobilderburg:
thats a pretty powerful low for this time of year

ECMWF ("Euro") winds at 850hpa/kmh 120h out (= Wednesday):

Source.
186. VR46L
Quoting 178. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Umm hmmm...Subtropical Hurricane Ana?






Ha its not going where I thought it was

Quoting 186. VR46L:
Ha its not going where I thought it was.

Hi VR ... Yes, next week we're going to get our quite cold weather directly from the North as far as I can see ;-)


Source.
Governor Jerry Brown has mandated a 25% statewide reduction in water use. Consider this rationing a surcharge for decades of environmental excess.

Weather is of course the chief source of California%u2019s water woes. This is the fourth year of below-average precipitation, and January and March were the driest in over a century. The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which contains about a third of state water reserves, is 5% of the historical average compared to 25% last year. Reservoirs and aquifers are also low, and some could run dry this year.

While droughts occur intermittently across the globe, other societies have learned better how to cope with water shortages. For instance, Israel (60% desert) has built massive desalination plants powered by cheap natural gas that helped the country weather the driest winter on record in 2014 and a seven-year drought between 2004 and 2010.
***

Then there%u2019s California, which has suffered four droughts in the last five decades with each seemingly more severe in its impact. Yet this is due more to resource misallocation than harsher conditions.
Related Video
Editorial Page Writer Allysia Finley on Gov. Jerry Brown%u2019s unprecedented decision to impose mandatory water restrictions across California. Photo: Associated Press

During normal years, the state should replenish reservoirs. However, environmental regulations require that about 4.4 million acre-feet of water%u2014enough to sustain 4.4 million families and irrigate one million acres of farmland%u2014be diverted to ecological purposes. Even in dry years, hundreds of thousands of acre feet of runoff are flushed into San Francisco Bay to protect fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

During the last two winters amid the drought, regulators let more than 2.6 million acre-feet out into the bay. The reason: California lacked storage capacity north of the delta, and environmental rules restrict water pumping to reservoirs south. After heavy rains doused northern California this February, the State Water Resources Control Board dissipated tens of thousands of more acre-feet. Every smelt matters.

Increased surface storage would give regulators more latitude to conserve water during heavy storm-flows and would have allowed the state to stockpile larger reserves during the 15 years that preceded the last drought. Yet no major water infrastructure project has been completed in California since the 1960s.

Money is not the obstacle. Since 2000 voters have approved five bonds authorizing $22 billion in spending for water improvements. Environmental projects have been the biggest winners. In 2008 the legislature established a %u201CStrategic Growth Council%u201D to steer some bond proceeds to affordable housing and %u201Csustainable land use%u201D (e.g., reduced carbon emissions and suburban sprawl).

Meantime, green groups won%u2019t allow new storage regardless%u2014and perhaps because%u2014of the benefits. California%u2019s Department of Water Resources calculates that the proposed Sites Reservoir, which has been in the planning stages since the 1980s, could provide enough additional water during droughts to sustain seven million Californians for a year. Given the regulatory climate, Gov. Brown%u2019s bullet train will probably be built first.

Once beloved by greens, desalination has likewise become unfashionable. After six years of permitting and litigation, the company Poseidon this year will finally complete a $1 billion desalination facility that will augment San Diego County%u2019s water supply by 7%. Most other desalination projects have been abandoned.

One problem is that California electricity rates are among the highest nationwide due to its renewable-energy mandate, and desalination consumes amp-loads of energy. Local and state regulators also impose expensive environmental requirements. Poseidon had to restore 66 acres of wetlands in return for its desalination permit.

The only remaining alternative to stretch scant water supplies is conservation. Yet studies show that mandates and subsidies for low-flow appliances like California%u2019s don%u2019t work because people respond by changing their behavior (e.g., taking longer showers). Despite the diminishing returns, Mr. Brown has ordered more spending on water efficiency.

The most proven strategy to reduce water consumption is market pricing with water rates increasing based on household use. Many water suppliers, and much of Southern California, adopted water metering and market pricing decades ago. But since state law doesn%u2019t mandate metering until 2025, some areas have been slow to shift from fixed rates.

Other suppliers haven%u2019t been as aggressive as they should be at charging for extra water use, which has contributed to large disparities in consumption. For instance, the per-capita daily water use in Cowan Heights is 281 gallons versus 170 in neighboring east Orange and 101 in Tustin.

To his credit, the Governor has instructed the State Water Resources Control Board to develop pricing mechanisms to meet the state%u2019s 25% benchmark and to require larger reductions from suppliers whose residents use more water. His order exempts farmers, yet their water has already been curtailed. Even in wet years, farmers have only received 45% of their contractual allocations due to wildlife diversions. Over 500,000 acres of land were left fallow last year. Many are now drilling deeper wells to pump groundwater at increasing marginal costs.

Not even Gov. Brown can make it rain, but he and other politicians can stop compounding the damage by putting water storage, transportation and market pricing above environmental obsessions. Do not hold your breath%u2014and prepare for French showers.
Quoting 168. weatherbro:


Hue???

All models have a significant cooldown(starting Wed/Thurs) with a prolonged dry out that follows.



Cool down?
Local news this morning is showing video of the Belle Glade Fl tornado.
Not the best video but you can tell a tornado is going by.
Video Belle Glades Fl. tornado yesterday.

Link
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Governor Jerry Brown has mandated a 25% statewide reduction in water use. Consider this rationing a surcharge for decades of environmental excess.

Weather is of course the chief source of California%u2019s water woes. This is the fourth year of below-average precipitation, and January and March were the driest in over a century. The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which contains about a third of state water reserves, is 5% of the historical average compared to 25% last year. Reservoirs and aquifers are also low, and some could run dry this year.

While droughts occur intermittently across the globe, other societies have learned better how to cope with water shortages. For instance, Israel (60% desert) has built massive desalination plants powered by cheap natural gas that helped the country weather the driest winter on record in 2014 and a seven-year drought between 2004 and 2010.
***

Then there%u2019s California, which has suffered four droughts in the last five decades with each seemingly more severe in its impact. Yet this is due more to resource misallocation than harsher conditions.
Related Video
Editorial Page Writer Allysia Finley on Gov. Jerry Brown%u2019s unprecedented decision to impose mandatory water restrictions across California. Photo: Associated Press

During normal years, the state should replenish reservoirs. However, environmental regulations require that about 4.4 million acre-feet of water%u2014enough to sustain 4.4 million families and irrigate one million acres of farmland%u2014be diverted to ecological purposes. Even in dry years, hundreds of thousands of acre feet of runoff are flushed into San Francisco Bay to protect fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

During the last two winters amid the drought, regulators let more than 2.6 million acre-feet out into the bay. The reason: California lacked storage capacity north of the delta, and environmental rules restrict water pumping to reservoirs south. After heavy rains doused northern California this February, the State Water Resources Control Board dissipated tens of thousands of more acre-feet. Every smelt matters.

Increased surface storage would give regulators more latitude to conserve water during heavy storm-flows and would have allowed the state to stockpile larger reserves during the 15 years that preceded the last drought. Yet no major water infrastructure project has been completed in California since the 1960s.

Money is not the obstacle. Since 2000 voters have approved five bonds authorizing $22 billion in spending for water improvements. Environmental projects have been the biggest winners. In 2008 the legislature established a %u201CStrategic Growth Council%u201D to steer some bond proceeds to affordable housing and %u201Csustainable land use%u201D (e.g., reduced carbon emissions and suburban sprawl).

Meantime, green groups won%u2019t allow new storage regardless%u2014and perhaps because%u2014of the benefits. California%u2019s Department of Water Resources calculates that the proposed Sites Reservoir, which has been in the planning stages since the 1980s, could provide enough additional water during droughts to sustain seven million Californians for a year. Given the regulatory climate, Gov. Brown%u2019s bullet train will probably be built first.

Once beloved by greens, desalination has likewise become unfashionable. After six years of permitting and litigation, the company Poseidon this year will finally complete a $1 billion desalination facility that will augment San Diego County%u2019s water supply by 7%. Most other desalination projects have been abandoned.

One problem is that California electricity rates are among the highest nationwide due to its renewable-energy mandate, and desalination consumes amp-loads of energy. Local and state regulators also impose expensive environmental requirements. Poseidon had to restore 66 acres of wetlands in return for its desalination permit.

The only remaining alternative to stretch scant water supplies is conservation. Yet studies show that mandates and subsidies for low-flow appliances like California%u2019s don%u2019t work because people respond by changing their behavior (e.g., taking longer showers). Despite the diminishing returns, Mr. Brown has ordered more spending on water efficiency.

The most proven strategy to reduce water consumption is market pricing with water rates increasing based on household use. Many water suppliers, and much of Southern California, adopted water metering and market pricing decades ago. But since state law doesn%u2019t mandate metering until 2025, some areas have been slow to shift from fixed rates.

Other suppliers haven%u2019t been as aggressive as they should be at charging for extra water use, which has contributed to large disparities in consumption. For instance, the per-capita daily water use in Cowan Heights is 281 gallons versus 170 in neighboring east Orange and 101 in Tustin.

To his credit, the Governor has instructed the State Water Resources Control Board to develop pricing mechanisms to meet the state%u2019s 25% benchmark and to require larger reductions from suppliers whose residents use more water. His order exempts farmers, yet their water has already been curtailed. Even in wet years, farmers have only received 45% of their contractual allocations due to wildlife diversions. Over 500,000 acres of land were left fallow last year. Many are now drilling deeper wells to pump groundwater at increasing marginal costs.

Not even Gov. Brown can make it rain, but he and other politicians can stop compounding the damage by putting water storage, transportation and market pricing above environmental obsessions. Do not hold your breath%u2014and prepare for French showers.


Hey Gov. Brown!!! Make it rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease????????
194. MahFL
Quoting 188. trunkmonkey:

...prepare for French showers.


What is a French shower ?
Surface Map for today.

I sure hope it rains here today. From Fort Myers to Naples got no rain yesterday. This is getting a little ridiculous.
Only 3.4" in Naples and 5.6" in Fort Myers since Jan.1
10% tornado risk today.

And here's TWC's Torcon Index numbers for today.

TOR:CON Details:
6 - central and east KS, north, central and northeast TX
5 - east OK, north LA, west/southwest AR
4 - southwest MO
3 - rest of area.
A couple of 10% hatched tornado areas from the SPC today. I have mixed feelings about it though. It's a pretty impressive setup, especially for that southernmost risk area. But there's a lot of convection ongoing this morning down there, and it'll continue for several more hours. Not sure that we'll get the instability required to take full advantage of the upper level setup. In fact, I'd say we probably do not. Even up in KS instability is being modeled at 2000J or less for the most part.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST WHICH PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS INCLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
CIRRUS SHIELD ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RETURNING MOIST PLUME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...AS WELL AS NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS GULF
COASTAL AREAS
. IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY...INCLUDING MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80+ KT 500 MB JET
NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS /JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AXIS...AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE
PLAINS/...PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE WEAKER...WHILE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREA MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

BY 21-23Z...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.


TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS... BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSER TO...OR AFTER...25/00Z...WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM
. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMES MORE
PROMINENT DURING THE EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS
WHICH COULD POSE A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHERLY
850 MB FLOW FIELDS.
Here's the current Watch, but I'm more excited about the tornado potential later today.


HRRR for later today
Quoting 137. wartsttocs:

I have been fascinated on this blog with the mind of deniers. Physical properties of molecules from volcanoes are not questioned. Weird "theories" on magnetism, sunspots, and unknown "cycles" are considered as legitimate on their face. Earth day, CEOs recognizing the dangers of climate change, peer reviewed studies and Weather Underground itself are considered part of some "socialist" mega-conspiracy.
Even some weather learned individuals twisting into pretzels to promote the wrong views of their favorite denier met/blogger that for whom they have disturbingly many pet names.
I think Dr. Masters and Bob Henson are being quite conservative and fair with these blog posts as well as the many knowledgeable commenters here.
I can't understand why any serious person would nay-say all of this great information and perspective.


An online course at edX.org Denial101 starts next week. It is free if you do not want a certificate.Link
Quoting 195. Sfloridacat5:

Surface Map for today.

I sure hope it rains here today. From Fort Myers to Naples got no rain yesterday. This is getting a little ridiculous.
Only 3.4" in Naples and 5.6" in Fort Myers since Jan.1



You more than likely will NOT get any rain today as the flow is just too strong from the west. You will likely have to wait until Tuesday for good chances for rain.
ESPI continues to rise.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.04
We have been in a wet pattern for 2 weeks now and it appears this may continue for another week. This really does beg the question have we seen an early onset of the Wet Season although not textbook in nature.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING OFFSHORE THE SE STATES
WILL PASS OVER ECFL WITH LITTLE FANFARE DURING THIS MORNING. LOCAL
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM WLY COMPONENT AT DAYBREAK TO
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. AN APPROACHING RIDGE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WLYS WL BRING WARM CONDS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. RECENT HRRR GUID
SUPPORTED BY GFS MOS SHOWS A SMALL RAIN CHC ALONG THE SPACE CST
AND TREASURE CST TO LAKE OKEE DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS
THE ONSHORE WINDS COMBINES WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME MODEST
MOISTURE TO CREATE ISOLD SHOWERS AND A FAST MOVING STORM OR TWO.
PRECIP CHCS WL RANGE FROM UNMENTIONED WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS LARGELY TIED TO SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION WL DIMINISH AFTER NIGHTFALL. LOWS
WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

SAT...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO LATE WEEKEND.

WHILE MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH PWATS 1.6-18"...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR LINGERING IN THE 850-500MB LEVEL...ESPECIALLY ON
SAT...WHICH MAY HELP DELAY CONVECTIVE ONSET UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY LINGERING DRY AIR WILL ENHANCE THE WIND
THREAT FROM STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MID LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW OF 45-55 KNOTS WITH WINDS EVEN IN THE 925-850MB LAYER
APPROACHING 30KTS.

SPC HAS THE AREA FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARDS UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD GIVEN THE BRISK STORM MOTION. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS MODELS HINT
AT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRYING TO FORM RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FLOW INCREASES...BRINGING SOME
ACTIVITY FROM OFF THE GULF ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO N FLORIDA WITH LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVEL GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SPEEDS AT 925MB COME UP
TO 20-30 KNOTS AND 50-55 KNOTS AT 500MB.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW...NO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY AROUND
90 OR LOW 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION WITH STORMS PROGRESSING QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS E CENTRAL FL IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH SATURDAY...SPC HAS THE AREA FROM BREVARD
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARDS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND BRISK FLOW MAY ALLOW AND GULF
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.

MON-THURS...UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
WEEKEND`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE IN
THE DAY. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS
130KT JET SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPS SPAWN AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS N FLORIDA/GA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME BROAD
SOLUTION...SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES TRANSLATE INTO LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW.

GFS HAS SWUNG BACK TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEP SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH
ACTIVITY FOCUSED TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR...OKEECHOBEE AND
TREASURE COAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NE PUSH THAT OCCURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF STILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUES AND WED AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TAPS INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS COME UP TO CLOSE TO 2". WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT A FEW BREEZY DAYS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WED NIGHT AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY.
a week behind in news catching up. noticed J.b.s 2015 hurricane forecast 80% of usual ACE but also noticed he called for limited MDR action. So to me a novice this means alot of close in action. he also predicts 1 to 2 majors. could be a scary yr ahead.
Quoting 194. MahFL:



What is a French shower ?

Hmmm...I think thats when you just wet a towel and wipe yourself clean.
There are other references for it as well.

It sure saves water!
Quoting 204. islander101010:

a week behind in news catching up. noticed J.b.s 2015 hurricane forecast 80% of usual ACE but also noticed he called for limited MDR action. So to me a novice this means alot of close in action. he also predicts 1 to 2 majors. could be a scary yr ahead.


Quick builders that form close to home potentially.
Quoting 174. yoboi:



Well if we get -10 F for ten yrs you are saying no big deal....FWIW the link I provided was from Dr Masters...Basically you are disagreeing with what he had to say...We can easily walk this back to the context....


That is not what he said. At all. He's correcting your implication that a single volcanic event would bring about an ice age. That is simply wrong. For an ice age to occur, conditions for global cooling would need to occur AND BE SUSTAINED long enough for negative feedbacks to kick in and keep temperatures cool. If a huge eruption occurs, but the conditions of global warming remain in place, then all the eruption is going to do is temporarily cool the planet. Worse, it may act to speed up any warming that was occurring before the eruption. The ash from such an eruption could lead to a decrease in albedo by darkening ice and snow thus leading to a more rapid melting of such features once insolation levels return to normal (we see this happening now as a result of fires and pollution in places like Greenland).

A simple analogy would be like throwing ice cubes into a pot of boiling water. Throw enough of them in and it will cool the water so it stops boiling. But if you don't take the pot of the burner, the water is just going to eventually start boiling again.

Physics. Not magic.
a lot of model uncertainty on the storms in the southeast next week
Quoting 194. MahFL:



What is a French shower ?


The (bad) joke is that the French don't shower. :P
Quoting 188. trunkmonkey:

Governor Jerry Brown has mandated a 25% statewide reduction in water use. Consider this rationing a surcharge for decades of environmental excess.

Weather is of course the chief source of California%u2019s water woes. This is the fourth year of below-average precipitation, and January and March were the driest in over a century. The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which contains about a third of state water reserves, is 5% of the historical average compared to 25% last year. Reservoirs and aquifers are also low, and some could run dry this year.

While droughts occur intermittently across the globe, other societies have learned better how to cope with water shortages. For instance, Israel (60% desert) has built massive desalination plants powered by cheap natural gas that helped the country weather the driest winter on record in 2014 and a seven-year drought between 2004 and 2010.
***

Then there%u2019s California, which has suffered four droughts in the last five decades with each seemingly more severe in its impact. Yet this is due more to resource misallocation than harsher conditions.
Related Video
Editorial Page Writer Allysia Finley on Gov. Jerry Brown%u2019s unprecedented decision to impose mandatory water restrictions across California. Photo: Associated Press

During normal years, the state should replenish reservoirs. However, environmental regulations require that about 4.4 million acre-feet of water%u2014enough to sustain 4.4 million families and irrigate one million acres of farmland%u2014be diverted to ecological purposes. Even in dry years, hundreds of thousands of acre feet of runoff are flushed into San Francisco Bay to protect fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

During the last two winters amid the drought, regulators let more than 2.6 million acre-feet out into the bay. The reason: California lacked storage capacity north of the delta, and environmental rules restrict water pumping to reservoirs south. After heavy rains doused northern California this February, the State Water Resources Control Board dissipated tens of thousands of more acre-feet. Every smelt matters.

Increased surface storage would give regulators more latitude to conserve water during heavy storm-flows and would have allowed the state to stockpile larger reserves during the 15 years that preceded the last drought. Yet no major water infrastructure project has been completed in California since the 1960s.

Money is not the obstacle. Since 2000 voters have approved five bonds authorizing $22 billion in spending for water improvements. Environmental projects have been the biggest winners. In 2008 the legislature established a %u201CStrategic Growth Council%u201D to steer some bond proceeds to affordable housing and %u201Csustainable land use%u201D (e.g., reduced carbon emissions and suburban sprawl).

Meantime, green groups won%u2019t allow new storage regardless%u2014and perhaps because%u2014of the benefits. California%u2019s Department of Water Resources calculates that the proposed Sites Reservoir, which has been in the planning stages since the 1980s, could provide enough additional water during droughts to sustain seven million Californians for a year. Given the regulatory climate, Gov. Brown%u2019s bullet train will probably be built first.

Once beloved by greens, desalination has likewise become unfashionable. After six years of permitting and litigation, the company Poseidon this year will finally complete a $1 billion desalination facility that will augment San Diego County%u2019s water supply by 7%. Most other desalination projects have been abandoned.

One problem is that California electricity rates are among the highest nationwide due to its renewable-energy mandate, and desalination consumes amp-loads of energy. Local and state regulators also impose expensive environmental requirements. Poseidon had to restore 66 acres of wetlands in return for its desalination permit.

The only remaining alternative to stretch scant water supplies is conservation. Yet studies show that mandates and subsidies for low-flow appliances like California%u2019s don%u2019t work because people respond by changing their behavior (e.g., taking longer showers). Despite the diminishing returns, Mr. Brown has ordered more spending on water efficiency.

The most proven strategy to reduce water consumption is market pricing with water rates increasing based on household use. Many water suppliers, and much of Southern California, adopted water metering and market pricing decades ago. But since state law doesn%u2019t mandate metering until 2025, some areas have been slow to shift from fixed rates.

Other suppliers haven%u2019t been as aggressive as they should be at charging for extra water use, which has contributed to large disparities in consumption. For instance, the per-capita daily water use in Cowan Heights is 281 gallons versus 170 in neighboring east Orange and 101 in Tustin.

To his credit, the Governor has instructed the State Water Resources Control Board to develop pricing mechanisms to meet the state%u2019s 25% benchmark and to require larger reductions from suppliers whose residents use more water. His order exempts farmers, yet their water has already been curtailed. Even in wet years, farmers have only received 45% of their contractual allocations due to wildlife diversions. Over 500,000 acres of land were left fallow last year. Many are now drilling deeper wells to pump groundwater at increasing marginal costs.

Not even Gov. Brown can make it rain, but he and other politicians can stop compounding the damage by putting water storage, transportation and market pricing above environmental obsessions. Do not hold your breath%u2014and prepare for French showers.



yawn old news stuff we CA all ready no
Quoting 207. Xyrus2000:



That is not what he said. At all. He's correcting your implication that a single volcanic event would bring about an ice age. That is simply wrong. For an ice age to occur, conditions for global cooling would need to occur AND BE SUSTAINED long enough for negative feedbacks to kick in and keep temperatures cool. If a huge eruption occurs, but the conditions of global warming remain in place, then all the eruption is going to do is temporarily cool the planet. Worse, it may act to speed up any warming that was occurring before the eruption. The ash from such an eruption could lead to a decrease in albedo by darkening ice and snow thus leading to a more rapid melting of such features once insolation levels return to normal (we see this happening now as a result of fires and pollution in places like Greenland).

A simple analogy would be like throwing ice cubes into a pot of boiling water. Throw enough of them in and it will cool the water so it stops boiling. But if you don't take the pot of the burner, the water is just going to eventually start boiling again.

Physics. Not magic.

Great analogy!
next Friday..euro...................................... ..........................
Quoting 189. tampabaymatt:




At first I thought this was some kind of wishcasting - that was a few days ago. But here in Fallon (Northern Nevada) day three of thunderstorms and scattered showers, we're up to an inch, I think. A right blessing for our hay growers, and the small farms here. Friend of mine three miles away told me his well's down from 28 feet 8 months ago, to 20 feet. He uses more water than we do, I think, but not a lot more.
Quoting 212. LargoFl:

next Friday..euro...................................... ..........................


I think the Euro maybe overdone. Euro has been doing this all year only to trend to the weaker and slower GFS solution. If the GFS verifies then rain will be around thru next Thursday.
Quoting 214. StormTrackerScott:



I think the Euro maybe overdone. Euro has been doing this all year only to trend to the weaker and slower GFS solution. If the GFS verifies then rain will be around thru next Thursday.
yeah im thinking a wet week ahead for us,well we can use the rain for sure.
Good Morning. The short term forecast for Conus today:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 24 2015 - 12Z Sun Apr 26 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy rain possible for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the
Tennessee Valley...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and over to the Upper Great Lakes...

A storm over the Central High Plains will move eastward to the Middle
Mississippi/Western Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. A plume of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward to the Plain and the
Mississippi Valley by Friday evening and move eastward to Mid-Atlantic by
Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Plains and Mississippi Valley that will move to part of the Ohio
Valley to the Southeast by Saturday. Rain will develop over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains and move to the Ohio Valley by
Saturday morning moving to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening.

Meanwhile, a front over the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin/Northern
California along with associated upper-level energy will move eastward to
the Northern High Plains/Great Basin while dissipating. Upper-level
energy over the Pacific Northwest will be quasi-stationary through
Saturday while additional upper-level energy over the North Pacific will
move southeastward to Southern California by Saturday evening. The storms
will produce higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain over parts of
the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies that will expand southward
into Central California and eastward into parts of the Central Rockies by
Saturday. In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Southern Rockies/Southwest that will expand in areal coverage
into parts of Central Rockies/Central High Plains by Saturday evening. In
addition, rain will develop over the Northern High Plains early Saturday
morning into Saturday evening.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low over North New England will slowly inch
eastward over the Gulf of Maine by Saturday. The energy will aid in
producing areas of rain and snow over parts of Northern New England
through Saturday evening.

And a portion of the SPC forecast for today and current look:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.
Doppler Radar National Mosaic

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK TO THE
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO CNTL FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...

BAJA PENINSULA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE MS
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE
ORDER OF 80KT...IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS AR TO NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 90M SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH OF THE SPEED MAX ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION WITH
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF FROM SRN IL...INTO ERN KY.

SUBSTANTIAL WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/DRY SLOT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SRN MO/AR REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY MID-DAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO...SWD INTO AR. STRONG
HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-MORNING MCS THAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTED WITHIN VEERED FLOW REGIME SUCH THAT MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY SHEARED PARAMETER FIELDS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS KY AND TN SHOULD EASILY ROTATE AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE SUCH THAT
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.


...GULF COAST REGION...

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST THINKING IS A
SUBSTANTIAL EARLY MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF
STATES/TN VALLEY REGION WITH A TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SWWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THIS REGION BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IT/S NOT REAL
CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN GA. GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015
Notice the "slight" chance for t-storms in the WPC 4:00 am summary and the "enhanced" risk from the 8:00 am SPC forecast. Have to see how the t-storms develop later this afternoon across the MS valley region. Here is the current relative position of the jet:

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You more than likely will NOT get any rain today as the flow is just too strong from the west. You will likely have to wait until Tuesday for good chances for rain.


Yeah, we have little to no chance of rain until Tuesday here.
20% chance for an isolated shower, but those will most likely be inland and south of my location.
Quoting LargoFl:
next Friday..euro...................................... ..........................


No way!
Quoting 221. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, we have little to no chance of rain until Tuesday here.
20% chance for an isolated shower, but those will most likely be inland and south of my location.


Even Monday looks rough across FL. We could go into a 4 day period of heavy rains and strong thunderstorms next week. So hang in there as you should get some good rains especially come late Tuesday as storms sag from C FL into S FL come evening.
And finally; the forecast chart for today:
Quoting 222. 62901IL:



No way!
well nws is saying ALOT of uncertainty for next week..best we all stay alert and heed any local warnings huh









SPC outlook for day 1 looks all right to me. Let's hope the storms do not underperform.
Quoting LargoFl:
well nws is saying ALOT of uncertainty for next week..best we all stay alert and heed any local warnings huh


It looked like a HUGE low to me...can't be right.
The Texas supercell from the blog entry in motion - worth watching!

A brief reprieve from the predominant positive NAO conditions that have existed since last fall has allowed MDR ocean temperatures to warm slightly.

Does that change anything regarding seasonal activity? I doubt it...

My blog will be open at all times. If you have a watch and warning for your area. Please post if you want to.
This El-Nino event is continuing to evolve into a more Canonical El-Nino as colder waters continue to get upwelled NE of Australia across the Coral Sea. This evolution is important to the continued strengthening of El-Nino.









Very heavy rain, maybe even hail and damaging winds on the last frame.
<---- Going to first day of Jazz Fest.

Happy Friday to all the tourists too.

Keep a eye to da Sky,..

Yes I'll have nuther beverage, thank you'...




Earthquake:
M6.1 - 186km WSW of Bella Bella, Canada
Time: 2015-04-24 13:56:20 UTC
Location: 51.803N 130.776W
Depth: 38.0 km

Quite a lot of activity off the Northern West Coast recently.

Fortunately this one in British Columbia was quite deep (38km).
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
428 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022- MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-250930-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY -VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-M CCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIG G-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCL EAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
428 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THESE WILL SPREAD EAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
Moderate to Strong WWB is expect to push all the way across the Pacific next week. As this happens we could begin to see Nino 3.4 make a run at 1.5C come early to mid May.

Quoting 207. Xyrus2000:



That is not what he said. At all. He's correcting your implication that a single volcanic event would bring about an ice age. That is simply wrong. For an ice age to occur, conditions for global cooling would need to occur AND BE SUSTAINED long enough for negative feedbacks to kick in and keep temperatures cool. If a huge eruption occurs, but the conditions of global warming remain in place, then all the eruption is going to do is temporarily cool the planet. Worse, it may act to speed up any warming that was occurring before the eruption. The ash from such an eruption could lead to a decrease in albedo by darkening ice and snow thus leading to a more rapid melting of such features once insolation levels return to normal (we see this happening now as a result of fires and pollution in places like Greenland).

A simple analogy would be like throwing ice cubes into a pot of boiling water. Throw enough of them in and it will cool the water so it stops boiling. But if you don't take the pot of the burner, the water is just going to eventually start boiling again.

Physics. Not magic.

Papers on anthropogenic global warming and next glaciation

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on February 18, 2014

This is a list of papers on anthropogenic global warming and next glaciation. List also contains some papers that discuss next glaciation more generally. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.


The following are excerpts from the abstracts of two of these papers:

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle – Herrero et al. (2013)

The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO2 values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.


and

A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation – Archer & Ganopolski (2005)

We predict that a carbon release from fossil fuels or methane hydrate deposits of 5000 Gton C could prevent glaciation for the next 500,000 years, until after not one but two 400 kyr cycle eccentricity minima. The duration and intensity of the projected interglacial period are longer than have been seen in the last 2.6 million years.


These papers indicate that the next glaciation, which should begin in about 1500 years will not occur much longer due to the elevated atmospheric CO2 levels.

A large volcanic eruption would have a short term cooling effect but would not hasten the onset of the next glaciation as long as CO2 is elevated.

This has been pointed out to the "septics" on several occasions to no avail.

239. vis0
Not make fun of a serious situation but as an analogy a few yrs back Nature (i hear she's ambidextrous and bowls w/ old man winter - from the north ...sit down Grothar i wasn't calling you...i added "winter") ... gave us the Jersey split with Sandy when a LOW retrograded/blocked & some other details some NYC nut



CREDIT::
Sat imagery:: NOAA, University of Washington
Bowling Ball:: www.bowlingballs.us
Quoting 230. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A brief reprieve from the predominant positive NAO conditions that have existed since last fall has allowed MDR ocean temperatures to warm slightly.

Does that change anything regarding seasonal activity? I doubt it...




The normal amount of pervasive SAL across the central Atlantic MDR (normal this time of the year) will keep a bit of a lid on SST's for the time being as well. However, we will have to wait until July and August to see how much the SAL retreats to give the SST's across ITCZ a chance to warm up. I find it curious that rainfall across the African side of the ITCZ belt has actually been pretty good this year (see chart below). If this keeps up, we could have a relatively healthy ITCZ this year during the peak period regardless of the overall shear due to El Nino. Might be able to spin up a major this year, regardless of lower overall numbers, but time will tell.




On the Pacific side of the equation, with the E-Pac season kicking off on May 15th, the ITCZ/Monsoon trof is pretty healthy looking:

good morning...we had a little rain overnight....enough to wet the ground...no puddles......over the city it was spotty with the majority of precip over then eastern part of el paso.....lucky for me i live on the far east.....started off with an unusual hailstorm.....hail under a half an inch so no damage....and it was unusual as their was no wind with it...it did however temporary cover the ground all white
Jazz fest? better hurry up tedeshi trucks is playing at 3pm . this band is on a roll.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 235. barbamz:

Earthquake:
M6.1 - 186km WSW of Bella Bella, Canada
Time: 2015-04-24 13:56:20 UTC
Location: 51.803N 130.776W
Depth: 38.0 km

Quite a lot of activity off the Northern West Coast recently.

Fortunately this one in British Columbia was quite deep (38km).
Deep--but right at northern terminus of the Cascadia Fault. The Queen Charlotte Fault buts up against the Cascadia not so far south of Haida Gwaii.

Keep your fingers crossed...
yesterday i posted a blurb from michelle l'heureux.....which if we would have listened to last year....we would have been more cautious of predicting an event last summer....she based her caution of a 2014 el nino event due to the fact that the waters around and near austrailia were not cooling as was typical with el nino...this year many mets are referring to the same happenings as caution for predicting a strong event.....

the first pic shows how the ocean sst anomalies are dispersed with both an el nino and la nina event....the second pic shows current conditions...as you will see....strangely enough conditions are more la nina'ish