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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Carbon Dioxide Hits a New Peak this Spring: 404 ppm

By: Bob Henson 2:08 PM GMT on April 21, 2015

Weekly carbon dioxide measurements from the pristine air atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa have just topped another predictable yet worrisome milestone: 404 parts per million. The actual preliminary value reported by NOAA for last week (April 12–18) was 404.02 ppm. By all evidence, we now have the largest amount of CO2 present in Earth’s atmosphere for at least the last 800,000 years, and probably several million. The most prevalent of the human-produced greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide has been measured regularly by scientists at Mauna Loa since 1958. The gas is also measured at other sites around the world, but the Mauna Loa dataset is the most widely tracked index of global trends because of its uninterrupted 57-year length.

The weekly CO2 readings at Mauna Loa will crest over the next couple of months, making a run at 405 ppm before the annual seasonal decline begins (see below). Eyeballing the multiyear trend shown in Figures 1 and 2, it’s a fair guess that the final time we see a weekly value below 400 ppm will be somewhere toward the end of 2017, perhaps a year sooner or later. From that point on, we’re unlikely to again see a week below 400 ppm for many years—probably centuries, if not millennia—because of the ever-increasing accumulation of atmospheric CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels.


Figure 1. The last two years of daily, weekly, and monthly averages for carbon dioxide concentration measured by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography atop Mauna Loa, Hawaii. NOAA operates a parallel measurement program at Mauna Loa. Image credit: Scripps/The Keeling Curve.

What’s in a curve?
One of the most renowned images in climate science is the Keeling curve (see Figure 2), generated from the Mauna Loa data. This trace is famous for its inexorable year-to-year increase in CO2, as well as the seasonal rise and fall embedded in the graph’s sawtoothed pattern, a trait that became evident as early as 1960.


Figure 2. The Keeling Curve, 1958-present. Image credit: Scripps/The Keeling Curve.

Because the Northern Hemisphere has far more plant-friendly land mass than the Southern Hemisphere, it has an oversized impact on the global CO2 pattern. The result is a net global addition of carbon dioxide to the air as northern plants decompose, from around October till May, then a net removal as northern vegetation surges from roughly June through September. These natural seasonal spikes are about twice as large as the amount added each year by fossil-fuel burning, which has recently averaged just over 2 ppm per year. Unlike the human contribution, though, the seasonal spikes cancel each other out over time. After removing the seasonal cycle from the long-term record, we end up with a steady increase that topped 400 ppm for the first time in March, according to NOAA.

Close inspection of the the Keeling curve reveals some embedded nuance apart from the obvious seasonal cycle and the long-term rise. Figure 3 (below) shows how the percentage increase in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa varies from year to year. These bumps and dips arise from both natural and human factors.


Figure 3. The annually averaged growth rate of carbon dioxide, in parts per million, as measured at in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa. Horizontal black lines show the growth rate for each decade from the 1960s to 2000s. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Laboratory.

In a typical year, about 57% of the CO2 emissions put into the atmosphere by human activity remain in the air, showing up in the long-term measurements at Mauna Loa and elsewhere. The other 43% is removed by plants, soil, and oceans. These percentages have held remarkably steady over the long haul, but they can also vary markedly from year to year. El Niño, for example, tends to pinch off the cold equatorial upwelling that normally sends large amounts of CO2 into the air, thus causing a temporary drop in the overall global rate of increase.

The human contribution from fossil fuel also varies from year to year. Global emissions of carbon dioxide actually dropped slightly during the recession years of 1992 and 2009. Likewise, CO2 emissions tend to increase at a faster clip when the global economy is especially robust. Policymakers have long taken this connection between emissions and economic activity for granted. Many were surprised, then, when global CO2 emissions in 2013 came in essentially flat even though the world’s gross domestic product had risen by about 3%. This could be a one-year fluke--scientists and policy experts have been debating this point--but it’s also a hopeful sign that our global economic engine just might be able to run on less coal, oil, and gas while still performing well.

The long view
How high the concentrations get in this century and beyond will depend in large part on what measures the global community takes to restrict carbon emissions, including any agreements hammered out at the crucial UN climate meeting in Paris this December. Technology is a huge player, of course: wind and solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power are all close to carbon-neutral when compared to fossil fuels. But unless a price is set on carbon through some globally accepted process, there will be powerful market incentives for a growing world to use as much of our existing reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas as possible. And a key insight vividly highlighted by author and activist Bill McKibben remains: Earth holds several times more fossil fuel than needed to push global warming above the 2°C benchmark widely accepted as a target to minimize the odds of major climatic disruption.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations derived from ice cores (prior to 1958) and Mauna Loa data (from 1958 onward) show the rises and falls associated with several ice ages and the dramatic spike of the last 100 years. Image credit: Scripps/The Keeling Curve.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok Henson!
Thanks for the update.
Thanks Doc...and Bob..:)
I'll postpone my weather vacation next week due to the severe weather that will impact the south this week. And thanks Mr. Henson.
Quoting 3. hydrus:

Thanks Doc.


if you looked dr m did not do the blog today Bob Henson did
I'm going to miss the Holocene.
Quoting 4. Andrebrooks:

I'll postpone my weather vacation next week due to the severe weather that will impact the south this week. And thanks Doc.


dr m did not do the blog you sould thanks Bob Henson he the one that did it
Thank You Dr. We were discussing plant/Co2 related issues this morning. Repeating my earlier comment as you posted the new blog and the link again to the article on plants and climate change issues:

In a controlled environment such as a green house, you can certainly yield some good crop production but in an open air environment (normal ag environment) you don't have as much control over the other factors and pesticides can only go so far if you have a pervasive predator that may have "migrated and flourished" to a particular location because of issues related to climate change (or moving to new foraging grounds as a result). It's a complicated balance all the way around when you consider all of the collateral impacts and you have to look from the atmosphere all the way to the surface (the biosphere) to figure out what is actually going on at all levels (from humans to the animal kingdom).

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/04/plants -may-not-protect-us-against-climate-change
Bob wrote the post, but I put it up and forgot to change the authorship to Bob Henson at the top, sorry for the confusion!

Dr. M.
And another recent article on the impacts of climate change and wheat:

The tiny insects are the main mode of transport for BYDV, which occurs sporadically across the globe but can cause major damage to cereal crops. One month later, the young plants were harvested and examined for virus and damage. Higher carbon dioxide boosted the reproduction of barley yellow dwarf virus in wheat crops by 37%, the team reports online this month in Global Change Biology the first time the gas has been shown to spur a plant virus.

Plants grow larger with greater access to CO2, so one might argue that virus levels increased because the germs had more tissue to feast on. That wasn't the case here. Carbon dioxide exposure marginally elevated the size and weight of the young plants, but the extra growth didn't correlate with viral production. Heftier viral infections mean a wider range of spread, the team reports, suggesting a future where wheat faces more severe attacks from BYDV. They're conducting ongoing research on the possible outcomes with adult plants and crop yields.
http://news.sciencemag.org/biology/2015/04/inters tellar-blight-could-ravage-earths-wheat
Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe - and that make clear who the real enemy is

CO2 has NEVER been this High in 800K years.

The last time the Earth warmed 5C it took 12,500 years.

We're on a path to get there in 400,with 170 of those years now behind us.

March CO2

401.52 ppm



Welcome to the Anthropocene Epoch

Congratulations !
Re: The blog topic. My housemate asks a good question:

Is that fed primarily by the northeasterly trades or the winds out of SudAm? It would be fun to correlate with the drought.
Thanks Bob...
16. bwi
typo alert: restrict carbon [e]missions
In terms of upper level VP since the beginning of January, this year's upper level structure bears strong semblance to last year over the Pacific & the record high SSTs in the Coral Sea & warm water surrounding Australia, just like last year, at least thus far, continues to destructively interfere with the WC's attempted eastward displacement/progression.


Pacific Upper Level VP this year


Pacific Upper Level VP last year


Deja vu...
WOW! This really gives the idea of the El-Nino that is coming over the coming weeks as models are building this El-Nino to near 2C by July then levels off for a couple of months then climbs to 2.5C by October.


Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 20h 20 hours ago

Weekly Nino 4 anomaly (+1.3C) tied with warmest weekly anomaly recorded since CPC started weekly timeseries in 1990.
We have entered a new era. Thank you humans for changing the planet as we all know it and thanks industrial revolution as well. Amazing what the human hands can accomplish both positively and negatively. Negative examples are wars and climate change, Positive examples are new technology and coming together as a community when disaster strikes. There is many more examples just can't name them off the top.

The Anthropocene Working Group plans to meet in 2016 to submit evidence and decide whether the Anthropocene is a true geologic epoch.

Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy
Very dry and boring year expected. Then maybe 2016 will be interesting
As far as I'm concerned, few images are as telling of the situation as yours in Figure 4, Mr. Henson. Thanks for the update.
Quoting 17. Webberweather53:

In terms of upper level VP since the beginning of January, this year's upper level structure bears strong semblance to last year over the Pacific & the record high SSTs in the Coral Sea & warm water surrounding Australia, just like last year, at least thus far, continues to destructively interfere with the WC's attempted eastward displacement/progression.


Pacific Upper Level VP this year


Pacific Upper Level VP last year


Deja vu...



Not all and again you are wrong as everyone keeps telling you this from other sites you tweet at. There are many factors different this year compared to last year with regards to ENSO. ESPI is near 1.0, Westerly Winds are continuing with another big burst on the way, Waters near Australia are beginning to cool not warm as you state, and furthermore we are seeing continued MJO pulses coming across.

SST's Anomalies


Westerly Wind Burst coming something that didn't continue last year



ESPI Very positive something that didn't stay last year



Here is the updated JMA which predicted a weak El-Nino last year now predicts a Super El-Nino this year.

@Webberweather The whole entire Thermacline is being displaced eastward across the Pacific as deepest core has now passed the Dateline. This clearly shows that happening below.



Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:



Not all and again you are wrong as everyone keeps telling you this from other sites you tweet at. There are many factors different this year compared to last year with regards to ENSO. ESPI is near 1.0, Westerly Winds are continuing with another big burst on the way, Waters near Australia are beginning to cool not warm as you state, and furthermore we are seeing continued MJO pulses coming across.

SST's Anomalies


Westerly Wind Burst coming something that didn't continue last year



ESPI Very positive something that didn't stay last year






Would you like to provide evidence that my claim the upper level structure is just like last year is somehow false? and BTW, who is "everyone"? because quite frankly you're the only one that's been complaining about my presentation of actual, real-time evidence that comparatively lacks your obvious confirmation bias. Of course, I could also about the stubborn south Pacific -PDO (which also recently received some appreciable attention in literature, strongly suggest reading this piece)....

"The impact of South Pacific extratropical forcing on ENSO and comparisons with the North Pacific" Ding et al (published August 31, 2014)
Link

& yeah the waters around Australia have briefly cooled, that's not saying much at all, especially when the SSTs in the Coral Sea were at all-time record highs to begin with and these waters cooled due to wind stress imparted by ongoing convection & anomalous upward motion in/around Australia...

Also Oceanic Heat Content is much higher this year across compared to last year and that perfectly shows up below.

The march toward a big #ElNino ? Another notable wly wind burst fcst which appears well-related to the anomalous SSTs

from here

Link
Quoting 26. Webberweather53:



Would you like to provide evidence that my claim the upper level structure is just like last year is somehow false? and BTW, who is "everyone"? because quite frankly you're the only one that's been complaining about my presentation of actual, real-time evidence that comparatively lacks your obvious confirmation bias. Of course, I could also about the stubborn south Pacific -PDO (which also recently received some appreciable attention in literature, strongly suggest reading this piece)....

"The impact of South Pacific extratropical forcing on ENSO and comparisons with the North Pacific" Ding et al (published August 31, 2014)
Link

& yeah the waters around Australia have briefly cooled, that's not saying much at all, especially when the SSTs in the Coral Sea were at all-time record highs to begin with and these waters cooled due to wind stress imparted by ongoing convection & anomalous upward motion in/around Australia...




You have to be kidding you clearly stated water around Australia are warmer than average which infact they are near to below average especially across the NE Coast.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 14m 14 minutes ago

The march toward a big #ElNino ? Another notable wly wind burst fcst which appears well-related to the anomalous SSTs
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 14m 14 minutes ago

The march toward a big #ElNino ? Another notable wly wind burst fcst which appears well-related to the anomalous SSTs



the ? is how ever will the super EL nino if we get one will it play nic with CA there has been dry EL ninos i this hop this is not one of them
Quoting 29. Tazmanian:

The march toward a big #ElNino ? Another notable wly wind burst fcst which appears well-related to the anomalous SSTs

from here

Link



We are in moderate territory now although not official but it appears we are heading for Strong El-Nino by July.
Quoting 32. Tazmanian:



the ? is how ever will the super EL nino if we get one will it play nic with CA there has been dry EL ninos i this hop this is not one of them


Strong El-Nino this Summer virtually GTY's a shut down for the Atlantic during Hurricane Season and a wet California to FL Fall/thru next Spring.
Fig 4. Why is the print across the bottom "Thousands of Years Ago" so small?
Hardly noticeable if the graph is given a cursory glance.
An interesting graph nonetheless.

April 21, 2015
NASA's ISS-RapidScat Wind Data Proving Valuable for Tropical Cyclones


The ISS-RapidScat instrument has been in orbit seven months, and forecasters are already finding this new eye-in-the-sky helpful as they keep watch on major storms around the globe. RapidScat measures Earth's ocean surface wind speed and direction over open waters. The instrument’s data on ocean winds provide essential measurements for researchers and scientists to use in weather predictions, including hurricane monitoring. The NASA instrument arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) on Sept. 23, 2014, providing a new resource for tracking and studying storms ranging from tropical cyclones to nor'easters. RapidScat has kept busy in 2015’s already active Southern Hemisphere hurricane season and the Northern Hemisphere's winter storm season.



ISS-RapidScat revealed sustained winds over 67 mph (30 mps/108 kph) (in red) were still occurring southeast of Tropical Cyclone Pam's center on March 16, 2015.
Credits: NASA JPL/Doug Tyler
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Fig 4. Why is the print across the bottom "Thousands of Years Ago" so small?
Hardly noticeable if the graph is given a cursory glance.
An interesting graph nonetheless.

The forum software resizes image to fit the allocated space, shrinking if need be. If you look at the full-size version of that image here, you'll see that the line is larger and more legible.
Following through with the Spring severe weather season in Conus, SPC is still considering
the possibility of some severe weather towards the weekend. Timing and impacts are still
too far out to nail down. Just noting that the outlook from yesterday focused on Friday and
now the discussion continues into the weekend in terms of timing issues. We will probably
have a better handle on issues come Thursday afternoon as the atmospheric conditions
unfold out West:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN MEXICO AND MOVE THIS FEATURE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY/DAY 4. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A MID-LEVEL JET OVER
A WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE ERN THIRD OF TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE FROM NCNTRL TX NWD INTO CNTRL OK BUT
THE TIMING OF INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. MORNING STORMS COULD AFFECT
WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS SET UP. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BOTH
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET. ON SATURDAY/DAY 5...BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND KEEP A WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE GULF COAST. THIS WOULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SRN MS EWD INTO
GA. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6...BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER LONGITUDINALLY ON WHERE THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO DIFFER ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ADDS
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE IN THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP. BEYOND DAY 6...CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.


current australia SST anomalies focused on eastern portion



current australian sst's focused on western portion

Eric Blake retweeted
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather · 5m 5 minutes ago

RT @NWSTallahassee The EF-1 #tornado in #Tallahassee #FL on Sunday was the 1st EF-1+ in city limits since 1995.
Check out this nice new hi-res global SST anomaly map (clickable) from NOAA:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/

Dr. M.

Check out this nice new hi-res global SST anomaly map (clickable) from NOAA:



thanx doc
looking at the link doc provided....much of the ocean is warmer than average....except the one place many that post here would want...the tropical atlantic (corrected)

This image is for beell.



Strong winds from Monday's thunderstorms blew a trampoline over in a Zephyrhills neighborhood. (Photo: Ken Moran)
Quoting 44. JeffMasters:

Check out this nice new hi-res global SST anomaly map (clickable) from NOAA:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/

Dr. M.


Thanks, Dr. Masters. Unbelievable 8C anomalies off the New England coast.

Question: Are these huge anomalies where both extreme warm and extreme cold are seen (like off the coast of New England, South Africa, Japan, and Eastern South America) at least partially related to changes in locations of the warm surface currents or is there some other explanation?
Quoting 48. Naga5000:



Thanks, Dr. Masters. Unbelievable 8C anomalies off the New England coast.

Question: Are these huge anomalies where both extreme warm and extreme cold are seen (like off the coast of New England, South Africa, Japan, and Eastern South America) at least partially related to changes in locations of the warm surface currents or is there some other explanation?

The cooling spot south of Greenland is of permanence, check out What’s going on in the North Atlantic? .
Quoting 49. cRRKampen:


The cooling spot south of Greenland is of permanence, check out What’s going on in the North Atlantic? .


I understand that, I'm interested in the almost wave-like, alternating warm/cool anomalies. I've wondered about it for awhile, it would seem to me that it would require more than just location change (which even if that was the case, a change in location of the currents in those locations would be a pretty big deal I imagine).
Any takers on if we will see a Cape Verde storm this season? Looks like the predominant areas for development will be GOM and East Coast.

Quoting 50. Naga5000:



I understand that, I'm interested in the almost wave-like, alternating warm/cool anomalies. I've wondered about it for awhile, it would seem to me that it would require more than just location change (which even if that was the case, a change in location of the currents in those locations would be a pretty big deal I imagine).

I have no idea. Zilch. Astounded like you.
nice update good lunch time read
faster and faster soon it will be 410 ppm
Interesting reading on the issue of the sub-polar Atlantic and the cold pool there; will only note per the article posted below and the anomaly maps that the Gulf Stream still "appears healthy" in the lower latitudes and the warm anomalies off the NE US coast contributed to some of the intense snow fall along the NE coastal corridor this past Winter. Will be interesting to see in the coming decades whether this sub-polar issue continues in spite what should be a slightly warmer gulf stream flowing up the US coast from the lower latitudes. There are also potential impacts on Europe with this sub-polar pool, or break if you will, of the stream flow there as the next stop is Northern Europe (with the moderating influence of the stream over there). If glacial melt (and the cold water release from melt) in Greenland is indeed one of the major issues here, Northern Coastal Europe may be in for some major weather changes in the future.
Mostly cloudy down in my area.

"Only" 80 degrees with a N.E. wind here in Fort Myers. Yesterday, I had a heat index of 95 degrees with a S.W. wind of 20 mph at this time.

But it's still quite humid today.

Getting some much needed rain down in extreme South Florida.
Quoting 51. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Any takers on if we will see a Cape Verde storm this season? Looks like the predominant areas for development will be GOM and East Coast.




A Cape Verde storm seems pretty unlikely this year.
Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:

Getting some much needed rain down in extreme South Florida.




About time they get some rain! South Florida for the most part's been pretty dry for months now.
Thanks for the new blog with the detailed (though unpleasant) data!

Looking for Global Warming? Check the Ocean
Climate Central, Published: April 21st, 2015
With the video below:



-------------------------

BBC weather video explains the very strong and wet storm which is hitting southeastern Australia (Sydney region) for the third day in a row now (more at the end of the last blog):

A powerful storm brings heavy rain, flash flooding and strong winds to New South Wales in Australia.
BBC weather video, 21 April 2015 Last updated at 14:54
BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes has the details.

Sydney weather: It's hell for six million in NSW as heavens open

The Australian, April 22, 2015 1:23AM
A "once in a decade" storm killed three people and wrought devastation across Sydney, the NSW central coast, the Hunter Region and the Illawarra yesterday, as a deep east-coast low triggered extraordinary rainfall and cyclonic winds that swept houses from their foundations, forced the evacuation of an entire town and created havoc for almost six million people. ....


Source.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



About time they get some rain! South Florida for the most part's been pretty dry for months now.


Yeah, some spots have gone 6-7 weeks or more with no rain.
Naples Fl. has only seen around 3.5" since Jan. 1st.
Naples went 7 weeks without a cloudy day.

On the other hand, cities like Atlanta and New Orleans set records for consecutive cloudy/rainy days this month.



Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the day god has given you.
Quoting 61. help4u:

Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the day god has given you.


Well since modern humans have been around roughly 200,000 years and we are now at a level of CO2 higher than the last 800,000, I believe your comment is incorrect. This is something entirely new to modern humans*.

*Under the sun that is, unless we got a new sun at some point and the powers that be failed to let us know.
this article paints a gloomy pic for california's drought woes.........not to mention to those that are looking for a powerful el nino

Ocean Winds Blow Away Hopes El Nino Would End California Drought
Monday, April 20, 2015 14:22


A UMD study points to prolonged wind bursts originating in the western Pacific as the reason that the 2014/2015 El Nino will be far less powerful than anticipated and thus unlikely to deliver much-needed rain to California and other western states.

An El Nino is a sporadic warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can have

ripple effects in weather systems around the globe. Last month, the federal Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md. announced a long-predicted El Niño had finally arrived, but was far less powerful than expected.

The new study, published online April 13, 2015, in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that prolonged westerly wind bursts can have a strong effect on whether an El Niño event will occur and how strong it is likely to be. In addition, the paper identifies three distinct varieties or “flavors” of El Niño, and explains how these westerly wind bursts (WWBs) can determine which of these flavors will take shape. The findings should help refine future predictions of these global-scale climate events.
In addition, the paper identifies three distinct varieties or “flavors” of El Nino, and explains how these westerly wind bursts (WWBs) can determine which of these flavors will take shape. The findings should help refine future predictions of these global-scale climate events.

“These westerly wind bursts are intraseasonal—they’re not weather, they’re not climate, but somewhere in between,” said Raghu Murtugudde, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic science at the University of Maryland who is a co-author on the study. “Our study shows that the wind bursts are definitely having an effect. We better learn to predict them if we are going to have skillful El Nino predictions.”

The researchers analyzed 50 years of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and westerly wind burst data. They found differences, especially when comparing the data from this year’s weak El Nino event with the record-breaking event of 1997/98.

“The most notable difference was the existence of strong westerly winds extending from the western to central equatorial Pacific in May 1997, which were not seen in 2014,” said Murtugudde, who also has an appointment in the university’s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC). “The development of strong westerly winds in the central equatorial Pacific in association with the warming to its east appears to be an essential element of large El Nino events.”

After adding westerly wind bursts to their intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model, the researchers consistently found three “flavors” of El Nino (rather than one, which was the model’s output without the winds). The three warm patterns included extremely strong events with the largest warming near the South American coast, a cluster of weak warm events centered near the dateline, or moderate warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. For strong El Nino events, the westerly wind bursts grow strong and extend east of the dateline.

According to the research team, the wind bursts affect ocean dynamics by exciting Kelvin waves that produce surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and by generating strong equatorial surface currents that extend the eastern edge of the warm pool.

“We hope this study helps other climate modeling researchers realize the importance of westerly wind bursts on El Nino severity and diversity, and the importance of extending our weather forecast capabilities from two to four weeks to capture WWB variability. Fortunately, the latter is now a focus at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, which develops our weather forecasts,” said Murtugudde.

Additional information on the study can be found here.

Contacts and sources:
Abby Robinson

University of Maryland
Figure 4 is fascinating. I'd like to see the average global temperature superimposed over Figure 4.
Quoting help4u:
Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the day god has given you.


No rain today just clouds here.
But tomorrow we have an 80% chance of rain. Then 40% on Thursday.
After that rain chances go down to 20% for Friday through the weekend.

I'm just glad we got some rain here at the house. I picked up .42" at the house. That's a decent rain.

Quoting 62. Naga5000:



Well since modern humans have been around roughly 200,000 years and we are now at a level of CO2 higher than the last 800,000, I believe your comment is incorrect. This is something entirely new to modern humans*.

*Under the sun that is, unless we got a new sun at some point and the powers that be failed to let us know.


Don't antagonize him, Naga!
Quoting 66. Astrometeor:



Don't antagonize him, Naga!


I was just taking his advice to enjoy the day God gave me, I just happen to enjoy a little prodding every now and then. Nothing new under the sun, Astro. :)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, some spots have gone 6-7 weeks or more with no rain.
Naples Fl. has only seen around 3.5" since Jan. 1st.
Naples went 7 weeks without a cloudy day.

On the other hand, cities like Atlanta and New Orleans set records for consecutive cloudy/rainy days this month.



On the plus side, my tan is coming along just fine...
Quoting 67. Naga5000:



I was just taking his advice to enjoy the day God gave me, I just happen to enjoy a little prodding every now and then. Nothing new under the sun, Astro. :)
Yep..Nothing like a fellow blogger telling me there is nothing new, how to have my day, and who gave it to me....
Quoting 68. Neapolitan:

On the plus side, my tan is coming along just fine...


Always look on the bright side of life.
We're starting to get some development on the stalled front in the GOM.
Hopefully the convection will continue to build and move over to Florida (southern half of the state).
You can also catch the southern jet racing across the loop.
Quadruple Rainbows on Long Island:

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/04/21/double-qua druple-rainbows-spotted-on-li-following-stormy-wea ther/
Quoting 64. canyonboy:
Figure 4 is fascinating. I'd like to see the average global temperature superimposed over Figure 4.

I'm not going to superimpose it, because that's more work than I feel like doing. However, you can compare the two graphs:




Edit: Unless I'm very much mistaken, the "Present" in the lower graph is 1950. So, the graph doesn't show the warming since then.
Quoting 72. MontanaZephyr:

Quadruple Rainbows on Long Island:

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/04/21/double-qua druple-rainbows-spotted-on-li-following-stormy-wea ther/



Very cool'

With these latest MJO forecast expect ENSO regions to continue to warm. Also long range CFS showing some pretty stout WWB occurring across the Pacific in May. That is why to say this year is identical to last is just false. Even experts agree this year is a different animal as you can see from the information I posted on the last page. The thing that is the most telling is how the whole entire deep Pacific Warm Pool has made its way past the Dateline now something that didn't happen last year and as a result El-Nino stalled.



Just look for yourself and put away your differences about ENSO strength to see that this is very significant with regards to a stronger ENSO taking shape.

Quoting 71. Sfloridacat5:

We're starting to get some development on the stalled front in the GOM.
Hopefully the convection will continue to build and move over to Florida (southern half of the state).
You can also catch the southern jet racing across the loop.



HRRR models show a large mass of rain crossing the south half of FL tonight.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


HRRR models show a large mass of rain crossing the south half of FL tonight.


I've got my fingers crossed.
Also, 80% chance of rain tomorrow. I haven't seen rain chances that high since Sept. 2014.
Quoting 61. help4u:

Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the day god has given you.


"Nothing new under the sun". That's from the Old Testament, is it not? So then much of what is recorded in the New Testament would by new at the time, would it not? Does the Bible not have prophecies for our future of things that would be new? Apparently, "nothing new under the sun" doesn't mean that there will never be anything new under the sun.
Quoting 67. Naga5000:


[..] Nothing new under the sun, Astro. :)

But true, but true, radiation physics boringly the same all the time the sun existed and some..
If the JMA, Euro, CFSv2, NASA, and list goes on pans out then we could very well see the strongest El-Nino ever recorded in July as forecast calls for values to near 2C across Nino 3.4. Unchartered territory it seems we are entering this year and it does appear everyone jumped on the Strong El-Nino bandwagon a year early.

Quoting 61. help4u:
Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the day god has given you.

Like there's no tomorrow, murrihuwana happee :)
Actually anticipating on tomorrow could be quite an enjoyment of the day (mine having been secured from God's greedy claws but no real differences there).
For a clearer perspective,

No one alive or Born today will ever see CO2 below 400ppm,

Ever.

........

Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:

If the JMA, Euro, CFSv2, NASA, and list goes on pans out then we could very well see the strongest El-Nino ever recorded in July as forecast calls for values to near 2C across Nino 3.4. Unchartered territory it seems we are entering this year and it does appear everyone jumped on the Strong El-Nino bandwagon a year early.


Guess I won't be using this cone this year.

Quoting 68. Neapolitan:

On the plus side, my tan is coming along just fine...


With the amount of rain Naples averages in the summer, I'm sure you're not complaining, as is always, just when people beg for rain to come in Florida, usually late spring, then the rain arrives with a vengeance summer until people are sick of it and want the dry weather back lol.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:

With these latest MJO forecast expect ENSO regions to continue to warm. Also long range CFS showing some pretty stout WWB occurring across the Pacific in May. That is why to say this year is identical to last is just false. Even experts agree this year is a different animal as you can see from the information I posted on the last page. The thing that is the most telling is how the whole entire deep Pacific Warm Pool has made its way past the Dateline now something that didn't happen last year and as a result El-Nino stalled.



Just look for yourself and put away your differences about ENSO strength to see that this is very significant with regards to a stronger ENSO taking shape.


This year we will see a Super ultra El la nino.
Quoting 83. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Guess I won't be using this cone this year.


Cut the MDR out of the cone and you have this year :D
Quoting 86. Gearsts:

Cut the MDR out of the cone and you have this year :D
We can probably fit 3 Typhoon Tip's in that cone. :P
Quoting 87. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We can probably fit 3 Typhoon Tip's in that cone. :P


But the REAL question is how many tropical storm Marco's could you fit? :D <---trollish grin.
Quoting 82. Patrap:

For a clearer perspective,

No one alive or Born today will ever see CO2 below 400ppm,
Ever.
.......

Well, according to the entry we should have the chance for maybe two more years in winter. Let's enjoy it then while it lasts ;-)

Quote: "Eyeballing the multiyear trend shown in Figures 1 and 2, it’s a fair guess that the final time we see a weekly value below 400 ppm will be somewhere toward the end of 2017, perhaps a year sooner or later. From that point on, we’re unlikely to again see a week below 400 ppm for many years—probably centuries, if not millennia—because of the ever-increasing accumulation of atmospheric CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels."
Really? Where is the Mauna Loa data that can be quantified from 100 years ago? What about 1,000 years ago? 10,000 years ago? Where's the Mauna Loa data from 100,000 years ago? Wow, those are some reliable instruments! Again, where is the DATA that can be quantified? Not inaccurate modeling or core samples but apples to apples data from instruments that precisely show us what actually happened!

What about quantifiable data from other points of the globe? It seems that a single point of reference would be lacking in statistical validity. And not just 10 other points. How about 100? 500? 1000???!!!

Regardless, lets put a bit of THOUGHT into this. In my hypothetical world where things like logic and statistical relevance exist, I will go ahead and assume we have 10,000 years of CO2, temp, ozone levels, humidity, etc. etc. data from a 1,000 randomized measuring points across the globe.

So we have this 10,000 year record of data that can actually be quantified and analyzed. And everyone is very, very excited until Joe the maintenance guy (it really is this simple) asks "well, how long has the earth been around"? "4.5 BILLION years" replies someone.

Joe does some quick math on the back of his hand and finds that 10,000 years is .0002% of 4.5 billion years. .0002%!! That's two/ten-thousandths of a percent!!!

To further simplify what .0002 means: its statistically microscopic. E.g. if 4.5 billion years represents an inch, then 10,000 years of data is .0002 of an inch!! The width of a human hair is .004 of an inch and is HUGE compared to this 10,000 years of data that the hypothetical world has.

In lieu of Joe the maintenance guy's ground breaking "research" everyone quickly realizes how inconsequential this small chuck of data is relative to the age of the earth and quickly changes the subject to "Climate Change". Oh wait, no they don't, because their world values logic and statistics.

Now back to the real world. How much quantifiable data do we have to determine, with such dogmatic assertion nonetheless, that anything much less CO2 levels, have changed in the last 4.5 BILLION years?! 57 years??!! Are you kidding me?! If 10,000 years of data is irrelevant, what good is 57 years?




This year atlantic season will be so much fun!!
Choo choo, all aboard the science denial train. Stop one: being angry at science because they don't like mediated data, everything must be direct!, stop two: ignoring that mass agriculture isn't done in a greenhouse.

It will be running all day, folks, but seats will fill up quick.
I demand a time machine so we can ask the dinosaurs if it was too warm or just right. We need prehistoric focus groups, people.
Quoting 92. Gearsts:

This year atlantic season will be so much fun!!




Remember, it's still spring and the shear's subject to change.
Check out these temperatures the 12Z GFS is showing for next Thursday.
The ECMWF is also showing a major cool down for the East Coast next week.

Personally, I seriously doubt we'll see temperatures this cool down in Florida but any cooling would be welcome.


Incredible pictures about Tornado in Xanxere, Santa Catarina - Brazil yesterday. Was confirmed that 2 people died and at least 120 were injured. The National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil (INMET) suggests that the tornado is classified as EF2 on the Fujita Scale, possibly one EF3, due to the size of the tornado on the images and the path of destruction. There were houses that were completely uprooted and swept away by feet away! The mayor of the city reported war zone.









Videos:

Link


Link
Quoting 89. barbamz:


Well, according to the entry we should have the chance for maybe two more years in winter. Let's enjoy it then while it lasts ;-)

Quote: "Eyeballing the multiyear trend shown in Figures 1 and 2, it’s a fair guess that the final time we see a weekly value below 400 ppm will be somewhere toward the end of 2017, perhaps a year sooner or later. From that point on, we’re unlikely to again see a week below 400 ppm for many years—probably centuries, if not millennia—because of the ever-increasing accumulation of atmospheric CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels."


Could subsidize nuclear power to produce hydrogen for zero pollution and carbon emission fuel cells...
Quoting 91. yoboi:
Meanwhile CO2 levels in the greenhouse down the road are at 1500 ppm.....The produce is thriving....

What produce would that be, and why exactly is it thriving? Thanks in advance.
Quoting Gearsts:
This year atlantic season will be so much fun!!


Don't get your hops up
Quoting 95. TimTheWxMan:




Remember, it's still spring and the shear's subject to change.
I know -_-
ECMWF showing a major storm for the Gulf Coast next week. Cooler air will get pulled down behind it.
Quoting 90. JtothaK:

Your post is just too poor to rebut in detail. It would take the rest of the day. Suffice it to say that your post should simply be disregarded by everyone -even you. :-)

Edit to be helpful: This is a good place for one to start learning about climate science.
Quoting 97. pablosyn:

Incredible pictures about Tornado in Xanxerê, Santa Catarina - Brazil yesterday. Was confirmed that 2 people died and at least 120 were injured. The National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil (INMET) suggests that the tornado is classified as EF2 on the Fujita Scale, possibly one EF3, due to the size of the tornado on the images and the path of destruction. There were houses that were completely uprooted and swept away by feet away! The mayor of the city reported war zone.














Whether it's an EF2 or EF3 depends on how well or poor the structures hit were built.
Quoting 90. JtothaK:

Really? Where is the Mauna Loa data that can be quantified from 100 years ago? What about 1,000 years ago? 10,000 years ago? Where's the Mauna Loa data from 100,000 years ago? Wow, those are some reliable instruments! Again, where is the DATA that can be quantified? Not inaccurate modeling or core samples but apples to apples data from instruments that precisely show us what actually happened!

What about quantifiable data from other points of the globe? It seems that a single point of reference would be lacking in statistical validity. And not just 10 other points. How about 100? 500? 1000???!!!

Regardless, lets put a bit of THOUGHT into this. In my hypothetical world where things like logic and statistical relevance exist, I will go ahead and assume we have 10,000 years of CO2, temp, ozone levels, humidity, etc. etc. data from a 1,000 randomized measuring points across the globe.

So we have this 10,000 year record of data that can actually be quantified and analyzed. And everyone is very, very excited until Joe the maintenance guy (it really is this simple) asks "well, how long has the earth been around"? "4.5 BILLION years" replies someone.

Joe does some quick math on the back of his hand and finds that 10,000 years is .0002% of 4.5 billion years. .0002%!! That's two/ten-thousandths of a percent!!!

To further simplify what .0002 means: its statistically microscopic. E.g. if 4.5 billion years represents an inch, then 10,000 years of data .0002 of an inch!! The width of a human hair is .004 of an inch and is HUGE compared to this 10,000 years of data that the hypothetical world has.

In lieu of Joe the maintenance guy's ground breaking "research" everyone quickly realizes how inconsequential this small chuck of data is relative to the age of the earth and quickly changes the subject to "Climate Change". Oh wait, no they don't, because their world values logic and statistics.

Now back to the real world. How much quantifiable data do we have to determine, with such dogmatic assertion nonetheless, that anything much less CO2 levels, have changed in the last 4.5 BILLION years?! 57 years??!! Are you ******* kidding me?!







CO2 content in air bubbles in ice can be used to determine atmospheric CO2 concentration to 100's of 1000's of years ago. Less direct means can be used to estimate atmospheric CO2 content back to eons ago. A recent study suggests that rapid ocean acidification due a rapid increase in CO2 was a main driver of the largest mass extinction event.
Quoting 82. Patrap:

For a clearer perspective,

No one alive or Born today will ever see CO2 below 400ppm,

Ever.

........




For a clearer perspective, you may be correct only in the unlikely possibility that the cyclical (and yes, rising) nature of observed CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa suddenly ceases. Otherwise you, me, and everyone alive or born today will probably see CO2 below 400 ppm next September/October, or does that not fall into "ever"? Your hands must be raw from all that wringing.
Quoting 91. yoboi:

Meanwhile CO2 levels in the greenhouse down the road are at 1500 ppm.....The produce is thriving....




4/20 was yesterday.
Hyper active season
Quoting 91. yoboi:

Meanwhile CO2 levels in the greenhouse down the road are at 1500 ppm.....The produce is thriving....


In greenhouses, CO2 is often added, but do they also add extremes in drought, or extremes in precipitation, or heat waves that are too extreme for crops to thrive in greenhouses, along with the added CO2? I think not.
2 Tornadoes were confirmed in Santa Catarina state - Brazil. 1 in Xanxerê and other in "Ponte Serrada".

Was confirmed that in Xanxerê the tornado was classified like EF2 and Ponte Serrada was confirmed an EF1 with winds could reached 90 mph.

Damage of Tornado in Xanxere, SC - Brazil:


Damage of Tornado in Ponte Serrada, SC - Brazil:
Quoting 93. Naga5000:

Choo choo, all aboard the science denial train. Stop one: being angry at science because they don't like mediated data, everything must be direct!, stop two: ignoring that mass agriculture isn't done in a greenhouse.

It will be running all day, folks, but seats will fill up quick.


Agreed. And those that either don't understand or are in denial about statistical relevance or those that choose to answer with the typical straw man.

Don't be that guy or gal.
4/20 was yesterday.


4/21 is national drug test day
University offering free online course to demolish climate denial
The University of Queensland's course examines the science of climate science denial
The Guardian, Dana Nuccitelli, Tuesday 21 April 2015 14.59 BST
Starting 28 April, 2015, the University of Queensland is offering a free Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) aimed at "Making Sense of Climate Science Denial".
The course coordinator is John Cook, University of Queensland Global Change Institute climate communication fellow, and founder of the climate science myth debunking website Skeptical Science. Cook's research has primarily focused on the psychology of climate science denial. ...
The course includes climate science and myth debunking lectures by the international team of volunteer scientific contributors to Skeptical Science, including myself, and interviews with many of the world's leading climate science and psychology experts. Making Sense of Climate Science Denial is a seven-week program featuring interviews with 75 scientific experts, including Sir David Attenborough, Katharine Hayhoe, Richard Alley, Michael Mann, and Naomi Oreskes. ...


https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-climate-s cience-denial-uqx-denial101x#!
Quoting 111. JtothaK:


Agreed. And those that either don't understand or are in denial about statistical relevance or those that choose to answer with the typical straw man.

Don't that guy or gal.

The age of the Earth has no direct statistical relevance to the AGW problem. It is indeed a strawman to use the age of the Earth as an argument against the reality of AGW.
Quoting 112. ricderr:
4/20 was yesterday.


4/21 is national drug test day

Why not? Seems likely to be effective. :-)
Quoting 111. JtothaK:



Agreed. And those that either don't understand or are in denial about statistical relevance or those that choose to answer with the typical straw man.

Don't be that guy or gal.


Slow down there, turbo, you just made an embarrassing gish gallop of a first post here failing to understand very basic concepts and rejecting years of well established proxy measurements. Your statistical argument is just not valid by any means, and quite frankly, not worth rebutting as it is of zero substance with numerous points of incorrect information and assumptions.

We know what the natural cycles are by proxy measurement, we know what the radiative forcings are through direct and proxy measurement, we understand the properties of CO2 through direct measurement (even the radiative imbalance seen at the surface AND at the top of the atmosphere), we know we are the cause of increased CO2 by direct and proxy measurement. This is simple stuff, basic science. I would suggest maybe reading a book or two.

Don't accuse me of a straw man, your entire post wasn't even worthy of a real response.
Quoting Gearsts:
Hyper active season



In the E pac yes
Clearing cloud cover out allowed us to reach 60 today in S C IL (although station to my N hanging on to 59). Dew pts in low/mid 20s, press up a tenth to just under 29.8", W winds continue 10-20 w/ 30+ gusts.

Have lowered tomorrow's high to 55 after dropping to 35 tonight, little lower than had in yesterday's 7 day. Expect we'll be getting some NW as low slowly moves away. Another cold spell next week? So much for my hope we were done w/ 30s after last week.

Wonder how rising CO2 will affect my morel patch? Did find around 30 yesterday. Be interesting how these cold spells will affect them, less - longer season? Farmers starting to get corn in now that it's drying out a bit. Cold shouldn't affect its germination too much.
Quoting 90. JtothaK:

Really? Where is the Mauna Loa data that can be quantified from 100 years ago? What about 1,000 years ago? 10,000 years ago? Where's the Mauna Loa data from 100,000 years ago? Wow, those are some reliable instruments! Again, where is the DATA that can be quantified? Not inaccurate modeling or core samples but apples to apples data from instruments that precisely show us what actually happened!

What about quantifiable data from other points of the globe? It seems that a single point of reference would be lacking in statistical validity. And not just 10 other points. How about 100? 500? 1000???!!!

Regardless, lets put a bit of THOUGHT into this. In my hypothetical world where things like logic and statistical relevance exist, I will go ahead and assume we have 10,000 years of CO2, temp, ozone levels, humidity, etc. etc. data from a 1,000 randomized measuring points across the globe.

So we have this 10,000 year record of data that can actually be quantified and analyzed. And everyone is very, very excited until Joe the maintenance guy (it really is this simple) asks "well, how long has the earth been around"? "4.5 BILLION years" replies someone.

Joe does some quick math on the back of his hand and finds that 10,000 years is .0002% of 4.5 billion years. .0002%!! That's two/ten-thousandths of a percent!!!

To further simplify what .0002 means: its statistically microscopic. E.g. if 4.5 billion years represents an inch, then 10,000 years of data is .0002 of an inch!! The width of a human hair is .004 of an inch and is HUGE compared to this 10,000 years of data that the hypothetical world has.

In lieu of Joe the maintenance guy's ground breaking "research" everyone quickly realizes how inconsequential this small chuck of data is relative to the age of the earth and quickly changes the subject to "Climate Change". Oh wait, no they don't, because their world values logic and statistics.

Now back to the real world. How much quantifiable data do we have to determine, with such dogmatic assertion nonetheless, that anything much less CO2 levels, have changed in the last 4.5 BILLION years?! 57 years??!! Are you ******* kidding me?! If 10,000 years of data is irrelevant, what good is 57 years?







Aside from helping us to understand how adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere heats it up, why would we particularly care about the precise atmospheric composition from any point before the current continents and oceans existed? From before humans existed? From before civilization existed?

You demand "apples to apples data" and then make the most apples to oranges (or, really, apples to rocks) analysis possible.
Tomorrow
Quoting 105. DCSwithunderscores:



CO2 content in air bubbles in ice can be used to determine atmospheric CO2 concentration to 100's of 1000's of years ago. Less direct means can be used to estimate atmospheric CO2 content back to eons ago. A recent study suggests that rapid ocean acidification due a rapid increase in CO2 was a main driver of the largest mass extinction event.


I'm referring specifically to quantifiable data thus "less direct means" and other qualitative sources are eliminated.

Regardless, assume we have a million years of quantifiable data from tens of thousands of random ice cores. Said ice cores provide 100% accuracy in regards to CO2 levels.

1,000,000 years is exactly a .02% of 4.5 billion years. Is .02% even statistically relevant? Perhaps, but we're not even close to that assuming the best case scenario.

Let's put it this way using our hypothetical 100% accurate 1,000,000 year span of data (.02% of 4.5 billion). If Joe the maintenance guy lives to be 100 years old and is writing his memoirs about the last .02% of his life, the book would be limited to the last 2 years of his very fruitful and exciting life.

Would we fully understand the 100 year old Joe by describing his 98-100 years? Clearly not. Would we even partially understand Joe by eliminating the other 99.98% of Joe's life? Common sense and logic would again, clearly scream a resounding "no"!!. That doesn't even scratch the surface and therein lies my point.

I'm an engineer with a science background, this is how I think, work and operate. Show me the QUANTIFIABLE data.



Quoting 102. Sfloridacat5:

ECMWF showing a major storm for the Gulf Coast next week. Cooler air will get pulled down behind it.



Sub 990mb storm this time next week. Very impressive but wouldn't surprise me as I have been saying the Southern Jet is really in control now as El-Nino continues to strengthen. One can expect a very wet forecast from Texas to FL going forward.

Also Tornado Season across the Midwest will continue to be on hold for awhile longer it seems however Texas to FL could see a tornado threat next week if the Euro verifies.

so i've been watching ventrice...blake...and few others....who like last year are hyping for a strong to super el nino....

one of the things they have been doing the past two weeks...is showing some of the models that are in super duper el nino mode...and extrapolating down a point or such.....in their words...correcting for the spring barrier

the problem i have with that....is....it just doesn't work.....sure..you can use it for lat year...but once you try it for a few years...or la nina years...and that theory flies out the window

so...i've looked at the mid april plume of models....and last years mid april plume of models....and.....well...i've got some questions that maybe some of you resident experts can help on......

rather than take one model.....why not take the dynamical model average......and drop that with what happened last year...of course that would make it a weak event.....

notice that although the dynamical average is higher this year than last...the statistical models are lower...now i know the statistical models on average perform poorer.....what is in their dynamics that they are lower????



The 4.5 billion year argument is just a stupid rehashing of "the climate has changed before" pseudo skeptic argument. It's been beat to death. Again, I suggest reading an introductory textbook. The age of the planet does not change the properties of CO2.
Quoting 122. JtothaK:


1,000,000 years is exactly a .02% of 4.5 billion years. Is .02% even statistically relevant? Perhaps, but we're not even close to that assuming the best case scenario.

That boom you just heard was the point passing over your head at supersonic speed.

You don't seem to have a grasp of what the fundamental problem is. Again, start here.
Sorry Scott I am still refusing to buy this super Nino forecast that you keep on going on about

And I will not pay any attention to the forecast till we get out of this model crap period which isn't for another month-month and half away
Hey SFLcat5 - Does it (map in post 96) show the cold temps further W on 29th? See our low is around 50 on 30th, better than any day this week.

Pablosyn - your tornado made StL Post-Dispatch website, saw it right after your post/pic.

Station to my N finally broke 60 as well.
Quoting 128. wunderkidcayman:

Sorry Scott I am still refusing to buy this super Nino forecast that you keep on going on about

And I will not pay any attention to the forecast till we get out of this model crap period which isn't for another month-month and half away


I think we are on our way to Strong El-Nino in a few months as we are at moderate levels now combined with a sustained period of westerly wind anomalies coming over the next 2 weeks. Basically values will only go higher as we enter May.



Quoting 125. ricderr:

so i've been watching ventrice...blake...and few others....who like last year are hyping for a strong to super el nino....

one of the things they have been doing the past two weeks...is showing some of the models that are in super duper el nino mode...and extrapolating down a point or such.....in their words...correcting for the spring barrier

the problem i have with that....is....it just doesn't work.....sure..you can use it for lat year...but once you try it for a few years...or la nina years...and that theory flies out the window

so...i've looked at the mid april plume of models....and last years mid april plume of models....and.....well...i've got some questions that maybe some of you resident experts can help on......

rather than take one model.....why not take the dynamical model average......and drop that with what happened last year...of course that would make it a weak event.....

notice that although the dynamical average is higher this year than last...the statistical models are lower...now i know the statistical models on average perform poorer.....what is in their dynamics that they are lower????




Is your keyboard broken?
Quoting dabirds:
Hey SFLcat5 - Does it (map in post 96) show the cold temps further W on 29th? See our low is around 50 on 30th, better than any day this week.

Pablosyn - your tornado made StL Post-Dispatch website, saw it right after your post/pic.

Station to my N finally broke 60 as well.

GFS has temps in the 40s all the way down to the Gulf Coast.



Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:



Sub 990mb storm this time next week. Very impressive but wouldn't surprise me as I have been saying the Southern Jet is really in control now as El-Nino continues to strengthen. One can expect a very wet forecast from Texas to FL going forward.

Also Tornado Season across the Midwest will continue to be on hold for awhile longer it seems however Texas to FL could see a tornado threat next week if the Euro verifies.


135. yoboi
Quoting 122. JtothaK:



I'm referring specifically to quantifiable data thus "less direct means" and other qualitative sources are eliminated.

Regardless, assume we have a million years of quantifiable data from tens of thousands of random ice cores. Said ice cores provide 100% accuracy in regards to CO2 levels.

1,000,000 years is exactly a .02% of 4.5 billion years. Is .02% even statistically relevant? Perhaps, but we're not even close to that assuming the best case scenario.

Let's put it this way using our hypothetical 100% accurate 1,000,000 year span of data (.02% of 4.5 billion). If Joe the maintenance guy lives to be 100 years old and is writing his memoirs about the last .02% of his life, the book would be limited to the last 2 years of his very fruitful and exciting life.

Would we fully understand the 100 year old Joe by describing his 98-100 years? Clearly not. Would we even partially understand Joe by eliminating the other 99.98% of Joe's life? Common sense and logic would again, clearly scream a resounding "no"!!. That doesn't even scratch the surface and therein lies my point.

I'm an engineer with a science background, this is how I think, work and operate. Show me the QUANTIFIABLE data.






You will be waiting a very long time....The best they can produce is a maybe could might possible etc.....
<---self-imposed ban until the next time I post.



Thanks cat 5! 30s again, oh well!

Quoting 135. yoboi:


You will be waiting a very long time....The best they can produce is a maybe could might possible etc.....

Uh-huh. I guess you're just ignoring the thousands of papers published reputable, peer-reviewed journals because...reasons.

Our engineer friend simply doesn't grasp the problem, the observations, or the theory that explains the observations, let alone why it matters.
Quoting ricderr:
so i've been watching ventrice...blake...and few others....who like last year are hyping for a strong to super el nino....

one of the things they have been doing the past two weeks...is showing some of the models that are in super duper el nino mode...and extrapolating down a point or such.....in their words...correcting for the spring barrier

the problem i have with that....is....it just doesn't work.....sure..you can use it for lat year...but once you try it for a few years...or la nina years...and that theory flies out the window

so...i've looked at the mid april plume of models....and last years mid april plume of models....and.....well...i've got some questions that maybe some of you resident experts can help on......

rather than take one model.....why not take the dynamical model average......and drop that with what happened last year...of course that would make it a weak event.....

notice that although the dynamical average is higher this year than last...the statistical models are lower...now i know the statistical models on average perform poorer.....what is in their dynamics that they are lower????





As I have stated before we need to get out of this crap model period

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I think we are on our way to Strong El-Nino in a few months as we are at moderate levels now combined with a sustained period of westerly wind anomalies coming over the next 2 weeks. Basically values will only go higher as we enter May.





We are not officially in moderate level yet on Levi site we are just slightly above 1.0C which looks like it soon will be back below 1.0C soon
Also nino 1+2 dropping back pass 0.5C
next Tuesday could get a bit interesting....................................... ..........................
Quoting 117. Gearsts:



Incredible difference or variation between the Pacific and Atlantic regions at the same latitude.

I still for one and maybe a loner on this think that this el Nino may be at the very least different if not over rated compared to previous events.
Quoting 122. JtothaK:

Would we fully understand the 100 year old Joe by describing his 98-100 years? Clearly not. Would we even partially understand Joe by eliminating the other 99.98% of Joe's life? Common sense and logic would again, clearly scream a resounding "no"!!. That doesn't even scratch the surface and therein lies my point.

I'm an engineer with a science background, this is how I think, work and operate. Show me the QUANTIFIABLE data.




Clearly you have spent too much time interacting with your engineering equipment instead of people. Our planet operates on many known (and some unknown) mechanisms that can be modeled and predicted. You may not be aware, but Homo sapiens, cannot. Of course I can't know anything about your hypothetical Joe because his actions can't be modeled or predicted. But if we know about now to 1,000,000 years ago on Earth, we can use science to generate reasonable hypotheses that go further into the past.
Quoting 141. wunderkidcayman:



As I have stated before we need to get out of this crap model period



We are not officially in moderate level yet on Levi site we are just slightly above 1.0C which looks like it soon will be back below 1.0C soon
Also nino 1+2 dropping back pass 0.5C


No we aren't officially but it is becoming clear we are quickly on our way. I doubt we see values below 1.0C across Nino 3.4 for sometime to come.
interesting next Tuesday etc..gfs and navy models take the LOW along the gulf coast then up the eastern seaboard somewhat..Euro takes it across the florida panhandle then across northern florida southern Georgia...hope its not another tornado maker..but in 7 days things can and do change huh
Quoting 120. MaineGuy:



Aside from helping us to understand how adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere heats it up, why would we particularly care about the precise atmospheric composition from any point before the current continents and oceans existed? From before humans existed? From before civilization existed?

You demand "apples to apples data" and then make the most apples to oranges (or, really, apples to rocks) analysis possible.

Hmmm...how about when the hydrosphere formed and when the atmosphere was actually oxygenated? That knocks billions of years off his 'calcs'. Add in the current flora/fauna (including us), then the 4.5 billion years rapidly decreases. Once we do that, now that would be 'apples to apples'...

Introduction to Paleoclimatology - from NOAA/NCDC:
"Paleoclimatologists gather proxy data from natural recorders of climate variability such as tree rings, ice cores, fossil pollen, ocean sediments, corals and historical data. By analyzing records taken from these and other proxy sources, scientists can extend our understanding of climate far beyond the 100 year instrumental record."

Also:

Proxy (climate) - from Wiki

What Are "Proxy" Data? - from NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Thank you, Mr. Henson. Loved the blog today - lots of info and great links. I was not aware of the El Nino/CO2 connection.

Also, thanks to all those who added additional links earlier in the blog - it's certainly added to my reading list :)
127,145,149) - 122, best I can say is inane. Have tried commenting on it several times, but forced to delete. Can't believe someone w/ engineering or any type of science background could post that. I'll leave it at that, sad day for my fellow engineers.
thunder and hail here dark as night
Well, in doc's round-up of March our German/European windstorms Mike and Niklas made it onto the top of the list of the costliest disasters of this month. Following twitter news from Australia (some are quite hilarious, lol) I'm quite sure that we'll see the current three-days-long Sydney/New South Wales storm in April's round-up ...

NSW wild weather: Second storm cell expected to hit parts of Sydney and Central Coast
ABC, April 22, 2015, 5:48 am


Current (saved) radar.


Source with updates (loop).


Yesterday's wind speed. .Source

Edit: Ummm, new blog ....
Quoting 153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thunder and hail here dark as night
Where are you again?
Quoting 122. JtothaK:



If Joe the maintenance guy lives to be 100 years old and is writing his memoirs about the last .02% of his life, the book would be limited to the last 2 years of his very fruitful and exciting life.

Writing off climate deniers is much easier when they make the most basic math errors. If you can't get the simple stuff right, why should I even look at the rest of your post?

0.02% of 100 years is 0.02 years. I believe you were looking to say 2% of 100 is 2 years.
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Quoting 44. JeffMasters:

Check out this nice new hi-res global SST anomaly map (clickable) from NOAA:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/

Dr. M.


I have posted images from this link twice at least before Dr. Masters let the cat out of the bag. Now I do not feel so special anymore. boo hoo! It was kind of hard to find.
It uses an earlier baseline of 1961-1990 so it really gives a better view of how things have really changed in the past few decades. That comes in really handy during the summer looking at Arctic SST anomalies.