WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Isis, Odile Removed from Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclone List

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 1:18 PM GMT on April 20, 2015

The Northeast Pacific list of hurricane names got a shake-up on Friday, when the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) voted to remove the name "Isis" because of its potential confusion with the Islamic militant group, the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS). Isis is the name of an ancient goddess of Egypt, and was scheduled to be used in the Northeast Pacific (also called the Eastern North Pacific by WMO) in 2016. The ISIS militant group has been accused by U.N. war crimes investigators of committing brutal atrocities against civilians during a bloody conquest of large portions of Syria and Iraq over the past two years. The WMO Hurricane Committee for Region IV (North America/Central America/Caribbean), composed of experts from 27 member states and territories, met in in Costa Rica last week and elected to replace the name "Isis" with "Ivette". It is rare but not unprecedented for a name to be removed from the list of hurricane for reasons other than retirement due to death and destruction. Both "Adolph" and "Israel" were removed from the Northeast Pacific hurricane list for reasons of sensitivity in 2001.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile approaching the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 4:30 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Odile's name retired
One other Northeast Pacific name was removed from the list of hurricanes for that basin during last week's meeting: Odile. Hurricane Odile roared ashore near Cabo San Lucas as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds on September 25, 2014, and was the strongest storm on record to hit Baja. The storm killed eleven and did $1.22 billion in damage, making it the 6th most expensive Northeast Pacific hurricane ever. "Odile" will be replaced by "Odalys", which will appear on the list of names for the 2020 season. Odile is one of only thirteen hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific to get its name retired since naming began in 1960.

For the first year since 2009, no Atlantic names were retired in 2014. If we manage to go without retiring a hurricane name in 2015, it will be the first time since 1993 - 1994 that the Atlantic will have gone back-to-back years without a retired hurricane (thanks to wunderground member Mark Cole for pointing out that Ingrid was retired in 2013, which I overlooked originally.) Overall, hurricanes in the North Atlantic have a much better chance than those in the Northeast Pacific of reaching shore and inflicting enough damage to prompt a name’s retirement. Since the Atlantic’s current naming system began in 1954, a total of 79 names have been retired. Some intriguing randomness shows up in the alphabetic arrangement of the Atlantic’s retired names. As you might expect, there’s a greater concentration toward the first part of the alphabet, but the pattern is far from linear. Seven “A” and “D” storms, eight “F” storms, nine “C” storms, and ten "I" storms have been put on the shelf--but only three “B” and three “E” storms. The name “Janet” was retired in 1955, but it took until 1990 for a “K” name (Klaus) to be put on the shelf. Once the North Atlantic entered its current era of intensified activity in 1995, retirements began to surge through the alphabet, reaching all the way to “Wilma” in 2005.

Tornado activity remains at a near-record slow pace
Severe weather dotted the southern Plains from Thursday through Saturday before spreading across the South on Sunday. Hail and high winds made up the bulk of the action, although a few short-lived tornadoes were reported. Two twisters with preliminary EF1 ratings brought down numerous trees and caused some structural damage in east central Alabama on Sunday, and another EF1 was reported in southwest Louisiana on Saturday. Several highly visible tornadoes spun across the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma on Thursday, causing little damage.


Figure 2. Cumulative tornado activity through April 18 is running at close to a record-slow slow pace, as tracked by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center’s “inflation-adjusted” database. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


Despite the high-profile EF4 tornado in Illinois on April 9, the nation continues to be experiencing one of its quietest tornado seasons on record. The preliminary total for January 1 through April 18 is 112, just barely above the record low of 109 for the “inflation-adjusted” database kept by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. (These data are adjusted to correct for the rise in tornado reports over recent decades produced by greater observing.) The slow-moving upper low that triggered severe weather this past weekend should generate a parting round of intense storms across the mid-Atlantic on Monday. Attention will then shift back to the south-central states by midweek, as an upper low rides in on a strong subtropical jet stream.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson




Figure 3. A thunderstorm-generated shelf cloud near Mounds, OK, on Sunday, April 19. Image credit: wunderphotographer mrwing.



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You for the Update..................Who says the weather is not political?..................................... :)

Repeating my earlier comment related to the dearth of tornadoes so far (which is a good thing).

On a related note, TWC continues to hype typical thunderstorms this week (considering the relative lack of tornado outbreaks). Was trying to watch their regular programming on Saturday evening and they kept interrupting the programming with "alerts" on run of the mill t-storms. Then, the caption along the lines of "Your Thunderstorm Central" at some point. Really a stretch and a waste of Dr. Forbes time IMHO and the forecasters talking about the "camera shaking" from wind gusts coming through Downtown Dallas..................................All I ever saw was light rain and a few flashes of lightening.
The above article about the record warmest JFM globally has a seriously misplaced decimal point.
thanks for the new blog

never knew they did that with names for storms but I understand why
Thanks Jeff and Bob

FROM LAST BLOG

I'm still gonna go with maxing out as a(weak-moderate) moderate El Niño

I'm still not buying the models one bit till we get of of this model crap period and that won't be till the late part of next month going into Jun
Carryover from the previous blog:

Quoting 798. Daisyworld:



This is why I find difficult for a person to say they are doing the "right thing" regarding their personal approach to climate change when they do not even understand the basics behind the problem. For one say that they are already following the tenants of proposed solutions to human-induced global warming without acknowledging its existence is disingenuous to the issue.

"...the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."

%u2014David Dunning

If a person is willing to use less fossil fuels, by walking, biking, buying an electric or fuel-efficient vehicle, taking mass transportation, turning their heat down and their A/C up or off, buying less, recycling more, etc., then does it truly matter if he/she understands 'the basics of the problem'? I'd say that person is being a good global citizen and steward of the environment. His/her understanding or belief in AGW/CC doesn't change that. Yes, it would be better if more acknowledged the problem in order to maybe sway politicians...but I think the larger issue is the folks that hold political power, economic/financial power, or have a 'media voice'.

In order for people to acknowledge AGW/CC, they need one of two things. They either need to fundamentally accept the scientific community in terms of expertise and findings, and/or, they need to have a pretty good, thorough science background themselves.

When I was in high school, most students did not take physics, and many did not take chemistry. In my school, students who were accelerated a year in math by taking algebra in middle school, also jumped ahead a year in science, so earth science was skipped. If I hadn't gone into the sciences in college, and also taken courses in geology, then I would not have the background needed to understand the basics of AGW/CC. I don't know the percentages of people today that have had basic earth science, chemistry and physics, but it's likely that there are many people in the U.S., depending on age, school, etc., who have not had all three.

Taking it to the college level, according to this article, 7% of U.S. college students currently major in science, and considering 30% of the U.S. has a 4-year degree, that's not a whole lot of people educated in the sciences who would have the necessary knowledge to understand the studies.

On top of that, while there are very good sources available that give a general overview and introduction to AGW/CC, there are unfortunately as many, or more, sources that put out disinformation. People are being negatively influenced, that much is obvious. Some who hold substantial political, economic, and financial power, or have a media voice are doing the influencing - they are the larger issue, IMHO. They are working diligently to undermine the credibility of the science community, and that undermining appears to be working.

If a person doesn't have much of a scientific background and their trust in the science community and their findings has been undermined, how does that work out when it comes to getting him to understand and acknowledge AGW/CC?

To me, if a person acts like we wish everyone would in order to minimize impact to the environment, I don't think it's being disingenuous. A lot of people don't understand, or understand enough, and are being negatively influenced about AGW/CC. Yet some of these people may act in an environmentally-responsible manner anyway. Good for them.
Hurricane in the East Pac on the end of the 6z GFS run...



It is becoming favorable out there, and as has been stressed it should be a wild year for that basin, but the GFS is probably rushing things. May be related to (big surprise) problems in handling the MJO, which is an important factor for early season development.

I'm checking Mesonet for reporting stations in the Tampa area to show the line didn't fall apart as it moved on shore.
I can't find any evidence of heavy rain or real strong winds anywhere in the area yesterday.

Tampa International Airport picked up .01" so how can anyone say the line didn't fall apart?
how some can take something beautiful and make it ugly...
Quoting 1. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You for the Update..................Who says the weather is not political?..................................... :)

Repeating my earlier comment related to the dearth of tornadoes so far (which is a good thing).

On a related note, TWC continues to hype typical thunderstorms this week (considering the relative lack of tornado outbreaks). Was trying to watch their regular programming on Saturday evening and they kept interrupting the programming with "alerts" on run of the mill t-storms. Then, the caption along the lines of "Your Thunderstorm Central" at some point. Really a stretch and a waste of Dr. Forbes time IMHO and the forecasters talking about the "camera shaking" from wind gusts coming through Downtown Dallas..................................All I ever saw was light rain and a few flashes of lightening.

It seems that you luckily missed the worst of the event; news reports say that parts of the area saw wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail, heavy rain, and even a tornado. Given that one of the nation's largest metropolitan areas was under the gun, I don't know whether it's fair to accuse TWC of "hype".

I will say this much: the number of complaints that TWC hyped a particular weather event by talking about it has consistently been balanced out in this forum by the number of complaints that TWC ignored a particular weather event by failing to talk about it, and showing reality programming instead... ;-)
Quoting 1. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You for the Update..................Who says the weather is not political?..................................... :)

Repeating my earlier comment related to the dearth of tornadoes so far (which is a good thing).

On a related note, TWC continues to hype typical thunderstorms this week (considering the relative lack of tornado outbreaks). Was trying to watch their regular programming on Saturday evening and they kept interrupting the programming with "alerts" on run of the mill t-storms. Then, the caption along the lines of "Your Thunderstorm Central" at some point. Really a stretch and a waste of Dr. Forbes time IMHO and the forecasters talking about the "camera shaking" from wind gusts coming through Downtown Dallas..................................All I ever saw was light rain and a few flashes of lightening.





Dang right they're hyping up severe weather! They send meteorologists out in the field for thundershowers. Forget the Tornado Hunt this spring, the Great Thundershower Hunt is the way to go! Now they have non-stop coverage for every little storm!
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

I'm checking Mesonet for reporting stations in the Tampa area to show the line didn't fall apart as it moved on shore.
I can't find any evidence of heavy rain or real strong winds anywhere in the area yesterday.

Tampa International Airport picked up .01" so how can anyone say the line didn't fall apart?


The line did seem to come back together once it hit inland FL, but to say it didn't fall apart as it initially came in from the Gulf is incorrect. I was following the line for about an hour before it hit the west coast and it stayed pretty solid but once it hit the coast it completely fizzled out.
Hey Doc Ingrid was retired from the 2013 atlantic hurricane list in Spring 2014 because of destructive flooding in Mexico.
Could "the blob" be the solution to California's drought?

Something scientists call "the blob" could be the drought-buster California has been waiting for. "The blob" may be coming, but not soon enough."

Hot dry weather fueled a nearly 1,000-acre wildfire east of Los Angeles that forced hundreds from their homes.

This morning evacuation orders were lifted, with cooler weather on the way. And for parched Southern California an even more dramatic change could be coming, says NASA climatologist Josh Willis.

"We are watching a very big blob of warm water in the central Pacific right now and it's headed our way," said Willis.

A warm water pattern scientists call "the blob" could be the answer to California's drought problems.

But why a blob?

"We would call that a temperature anomaly back when I was in grad school, but I think 'blob' has a better ring to it."

When the drought began in 2011, the warm water was in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, but over the last few years, that began to change as the blob of warm water shifted to where it is now, along the West Coast.

Scientists cannot say for sure if the change in water temperature will cause a wet winter pattern known as El Nino, which is capable of producing torrential downpours.

We were told that last winter we were going to get a big El Nino and perhaps some very rainy weather.

Could the coming El Nino end West Coast drought?
"Well El Nino from last winter turned out to be el wimpo," said Willis.

But all signs suggest the coastal water warming trend will continue and the impact is already visible along the California coast, where malnourished sea lions washed ashore all winter, as the fish they feed on headed out to sea, in search of cooler water.

"Often times it's the biology that's the first indication that the climate is about to change," said Willis.

And perhaps, finally put an end to what seems like an endless drought.

CBS NEWS
Quoting 10. TimTheWxMan:





Dang right they're hyping up severe weather! They send meteorologists out in the field for thundershowers. Forget the Tornado Hunt this spring, the Great Thundershower Hunt is the way to go! Now they have non-stop coverage for every little storm!

Except the storms in DFW weren't just thundershowers. Several hurricane-force gusts were recorded which brought down tree limbs and a church steeple, snapped trees at their base or even uprooted them, snapped power poles, and knocked power out to many people.

There were several EF0/EF1 tornadoes throughout the day yesterday.

Sometimes TWC deserves to be criticized. This is not one of those times.
Did you guys see the day 4-8 SPC outlook?


.DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN THE 4 DAY 8 DAY PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NNWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ON THURSDAY/DAY 4 ACROSS A WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF TX...SRN OK AND LA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF MOVING AN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MOVES A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WHILE THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT IN FROM NORTH TX NWD INTO SRN KS. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SRN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. AT THIS POINT...THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS TOO GREAT TO ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
Quoting 5. LAbonbon:

Carry over from the previous blog:


If a person is willing to use less fossil fuels, by walking, biking, buying an electric or fuel-efficient vehicle, taking mass transportation, turning their heat down and their A/C up or off, buying less, recycling more, etc., then does it truly matter if he/she understands 'the basics of the problem'? I'd say that person is being a good global citizen and steward of the environment. His/her understanding or belief in AGW/CC doesn't change that. Yes, it would be better if more acknowledged the problem in order to maybe sway politicians...but I think the larger issue is the folks that hold political power, economic/financial power, or have a 'media voice'.

In order for people to acknowledge AGW/CC, they need one of two things. They either need to fundamentally accept the scientific community in terms of expertise and findings, and/or, they need to have a pretty good, thorough science background themselves.

When I was in high school, most students did not take physics, and many did not take chemistry. In my school, students who were accelerated a year in math by taking algebra in middle school, also jumped ahead a year in science, so earth science was skipped. If I hadn't gone into the sciences in college, and also taken courses in geology, then I would not have the background needed to understand the basics of AGW/CC. I don't know the percentages of people today that have had basic earth science, chemistry and physics, but it's likely that there are many people in the U.S., depending on age, school, etc., who have not had all three.

Taking it to the college level, according to this article, 7% of U.S. college students currently major in science, and considering 30% of the U.S. has a 4-year degree, that's not a whole lot of people educated in the sciences who would have the necessary knowledge to understand the studies.

On top of that, while there are very good sources available that give a general overview and introduction to AGW/CC, there are unfortunately as many, or more, sources that put out disinformation. People are being negatively influenced, that much is obvious. Some who hold substantial political, economic, and financial power, or have a media voice are doing the influencing - they are the larger issue, IMHO. They are working diligently to undermine the credibility of the science community, and that undermining appears to be working.

If a person doesn't have much of a scientific background and their trust in the science community and their findings has been undermined, how does that work out when it comes to getting him to understand and acknowledge AGE/CC?

To me, if person acts like we wish everyone would in order to minimize impact to the environment, I don't think it's being disingenuous. A lot of people don't understand, or understand enough, and are being negatively influenced about AGW/CC. Yet some of these people may act in an environmentally-responsible manner anyway. Good for them.
Excellent Post..In a abbreviated form..The economy has affected education in a negative way..Those who held 4 year degrees within the past 10 years had a terrible time finding work, most didnt, and the repercussions were student loans not being paid off, leading to the huge increase of tuition fees. Now, people who want to earn their Bachelors cant, unless they have a scholarship. Earning a Bachelors was never cheap to begin with, and it has been hard for a middle class family to afford one child to go to college, and almost impossible to foot the bill for several. That being said, in order for the U.S. to stay competitive on the world economic stage, we need more college graduates. Skyrocketing costs and economic woes are a bad combo for people wanting to further their education. Poor support at state and federal levels along with budget cuts will only add to the difficulties ahead.
Quoting 9. Neapolitan:

It seems you missed the worst of the event; news reports say that parts of the area saw wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail, heavy rain, and even a tornado swept across North Texas. Given that one of the nation's largest metropolitan areas was under the gun, I don't know whether it's fair to accuse TWC of "hype".

I will say this much: the number of complaints that TWC hyped a particular weather event by talking about it has consistently been balanced out in this forum by the number of complaints that TWC ignored a particular weather event by failing to talk about it, and showing reality programming instead... ;-)


75 mph wind gust reported in Arlington (between Dallas and Fort Worth):

0052 75 ARLINGTON TARRANT TX 3273 9712 EST 75 MPH WIND AT I-20 AND GREENOAKS (FWD)


Link for Storm Reports
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC039-073-077-129-201430-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0034.150420T1353Z-150420T1430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
CENTRAL GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 953 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF GREENSBORO TO 22 MILES WEST
OF CRAWFORDVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDWAY...CRAWFORDVILLE...QUINCY...TALLAHASSEE...GR EENSBORO...
GRETNA...BRISTOL...JEWEL FIRE TOWER...QUINCY AIRPORT...LAKE
TALQUIN...ROCK BLUFF...WOODS...BETHEL...CENTRAL CITY...SYCAMORE...
JUNIPER...HILLIARDVILLE...EAST CAMP...CLIO AND BLOXHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

Quoting 11. tampabaymatt:



The line did seem to come back together once it hit inland FL, but to say it didn't fall apart as it initially came in from the Gulf is incorrect. I was following the line for about an hour before it hit the west coast and it stayed pretty solid but once it hit the coast it completely fizzled out.
no real wind by me when the storm went thru, got a good soaking rain for a few minutes,anything that came down we surely needed..hasn't rain by me in 3 weeks or so and with the hotter than normal temps we need the rain for sure.
Im not sure why they took out the slight risk last night for Florida, but glad they put it back on.. Severe weather is coming from the gulf. A watch should be issued soon.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The line did seem to come back together once it hit inland FL, but to say it didn't fall apart as it initially came in from the Gulf is incorrect. I was following the line for about an hour before it hit the west coast and it stayed pretty solid but once it hit the coast it completely fizzled out.


Yeah, I was also watching the radar constantly at that time. I also expected high winds and very heavy rain to move into Largo, St. Pete, and Tampa based on the radar presentation.
But right as the line reached the coast it weakened significantly.
As mentioned, TWC also mentioned the line significantly weakening and then they stopped talking about it and focused on other areas of the country.
CPC has Nino 3.4 at 0.9C infact warmer than this time in 1997 and if we hit 1.0C on the next update then this could go down as the earliest ever 1.0C reading across Nino 3.4. Very interesting as there is a very strong KW beginning to surface across the entire equatorial Pacific.

Quoting 20. reedzone:

Im not sure why they took out the slight risk last night for Florida, but glad they put it back on.. Severe weather is coming from the gulf. A watch should be issued soon.


Yup NWS in Melbourne seems to be indicating a watch for N & C FL is about to be issued. Very intense squall line in the Gulf and it is not forecast to weaken by the short range models.

Quoting reedzone:
Im not sure why they took out the slight risk last night for Florida, but glad they put it back on.. Severe weather is coming from the gulf. A watch should be issued soon.


The SPC will most likely change their mind, but their MCD discussion put the odds at 40%.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201235Z - 201500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
"If a person is willing to use less fossil fuels, by walking, biking, buying an electric or fuel-efficient vehicle"
An often overlooked moment as it takes some form of power (maybe not so clean) to produce the electricity for your electric vehicle and then when the battery life is done there is the matter of disposal for the rather unclean components of those multiple batteries.
Back to weather we had some great lightning last night but the storms split and went around us leaving not enough rain to measure on our digital gauge.
Quoting 5. LAbonbon:

Carryover from the previous blog:


, buying an electric or fuel-efficient vehicle


Electric cars use fossil fuels, where do you think the electricity comes from ?...coal and natural gas fueled power stations...that's where.
Thanks Jeff and Bob...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yup NWS in Melbourne seems to be indicating a watch for N & C FL is about to be issued.
Where do you see that? Their web page doesn't say anything about an imminent watch; neither does their Twitter feed or their Facebook page. Ditto the SPC page. Not to say it won't happen if conditions warrant--but I'm curious...
South Florida is now in the zone for strong and possibly severe thunderstorms today. All the parameters are in place with instability and with jet support. By the way we really do need to rain here, so any rain would be welcome.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
EASTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 1015 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR QUINCY TO NEAR MIDWAY TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CRAWFORDVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODVILLE...CRAWFORDVILLE...HAVANA...TALLAHASSEE.. .MIDWAY...
QUINCY...WAKULLA...GRETNA...HYDE PARK...QUINCY AIRPORT...FOREST
MEADOWS PARK...FALLSCHASE...BETHEL...BRANCHVILLE...STATE CAPITAL
COMPLEX...EIGHT MILE POND...BELAIR...TALLAHASSEE MALL...CHAIRES AND
NEWPORT.
Well, I thought the rain was done but a new line of storms has popped up in south baldwin county, I probably won't get any rain out of it, but it just lets me know not to count out the possibility of rain until the cold front has passed. http://http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/ united-states/al/mobile/mob/?region=pie
Quoting 26. MahFL:



Electric cars use fossil fuels, where do you think the electricity comes from ?...coal and natural gas fueled power stations...that's where.
Electric cars are still better than recombusting pollutants into the atmosphere. Many will be solar powered in the future.
33. JRRP
El niño 1997 started at the spring
this el Niño started at the 2014 winter
Link
Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:



Yup NWS in Melbourne seems to be indicating a watch for N & C FL is about to be issued. Very intense squall line in the Gulf and it is not forecast to weaken by the short range models.


not as long as the heat engine shines in the sky anyway
i dont get it this week update has Niño 1+2 at 1.3ºC why this shows nino 1 and 2 at 0.5 wish do we turst?


Quoting 32. hydrus:

Electric cars are still better than recombusting pollutants into the atmosphere. Many will be solar powered in the future.
solar power charging stations
Quoting 28. Neapolitan:

Where do you see that? Their web page doesn't say anything about an imminent watch; neither does their Twitter feed or their Facebook page. Not to say it won't happen if conditions warrant--but I'm curious...
I think Scott means SPC and you are right not imminent, but possible later today.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EXTREME SOUTH GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201235Z - 201500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP INLAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EVENTUALLY FAR SOUTHERN GA. A WATCH ISSUANCE
DOES NOT SEEM IMMINENT /AS OF 1230Z/...BUT A WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF 300+ MILE NEARLY CONTINUOUS
SQUALL LINE /THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO/ CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY APPROACH NEAR-COASTAL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA VICINITY. BASED ON THE
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE...SOME NEAR-SURFACE
INHIBITION EXISTS INLAND PARTICULARLY GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE
QUALITY/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH. PRE-SQUALL LINE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE IS
ALSO LIMITED BY SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1-3 KM AGL AS PER TALLAHASSEE
WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. NONETHELESS...A
NEAR-COASTAL STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS AS
SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES INLAND. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE MORNING AS SOME ADDITIONAL
HEATING/MOISTENING OCCURS...AND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST INCREASINGLY INFLUENCES THE REGION.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/20/2015
its even something we have discuss in the building

we will likely have to install charging area's in underground
and heat it as well to keep the cars warm in the cold winter
plug in the car to meter so charges can be added to monthly rent
for the charge


Quoting 32. hydrus:

Electric cars are still better than recombusting pollutants into the atmosphere. Many will be solar powered in the future.
Quoting 37. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think Scott means SPC and you are right not imminent, but possible later today.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EXTREME SOUTH GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201235Z - 201500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP INLAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EVENTUALLY FAR SOUTHERN GA. A WATCH ISSUANCE
DOES NOT SEEM IMMINENT /AS OF 1230Z/...BUT A WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF 300+ MILE NEARLY CONTINUOUS
SQUALL LINE /THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO/ CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY APPROACH NEAR-COASTAL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA VICINITY. BASED ON THE
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE...SOME NEAR-SURFACE
INHIBITION EXISTS INLAND PARTICULARLY GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE
QUALITY/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH. PRE-SQUALL LINE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE IS
ALSO LIMITED BY SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1-3 KM AGL AS PER TALLAHASSEE
WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. NONETHELESS...A
NEAR-COASTAL STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS AS
SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES INLAND. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE MORNING AS SOME ADDITIONAL
HEATING/MOISTENING OCCURS...AND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST INCREASINGLY INFLUENCES THE REGION.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/20/2015


Yes thank you Gt as I got that off their site.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 1034 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF DOWNTOWN CONCORD...OR OVER MT
PLEASANT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MT PLEASANT...FINGER AND DOWNTOWN CONCORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. IF THIS
ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE ISSUED.
SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
Quoting 34. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not as long as the heat engine shines in the sky anyway


Full sun here. High clouds are very thin and temps are warming fast.


Quoting 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

solar power charging stations
If you live near waterfalls, hydro power :D
Quoting 35. Tazmanian:

i dont get it this week update has Niño 1+2 at 1.3ºC why this shows nino 1 and 2 at 0.5 wish do we turst?





Weekly update uses ERSST v3b which has a different climatology (1971–2000) and does not use satellite data.

Link
Quoting 41. GTstormChaserCaleb:




There is too much cloud cover for any strong storms to develop from this line today. As usual, once it hits the coast, it'll weaken. Hopefully we get at least a half inch or so from this.
Quoting 26. MahFL:



Electric cars use fossil fuels, where do you think the electricity comes from ?...coal and natural gas fueled power stations...that's where.
good point there
Quoting 30. Sfloridacat5:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
EASTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 1015 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR QUINCY TO NEAR MIDWAY TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CRAWFORDVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODVILLE...CRAWFORDVILLE...HAVANA...TALLAHASSEE.. .MIDWAY...
QUINCY...WAKULLA...GRETNA...HYDE PARK...QUINCY AIRPORT...FOREST
MEADOWS PARK...FALLSCHASE...BETHEL...BRANCHVILLE...STATE CAPITAL
COMPLEX...EIGHT MILE POND...BELAIR...TALLAHASSEE MALL...CHAIRES AND
NEWPORT.




We some really major gusts here and nasty lightning, lost power for a bit and there are a number of tree branches down, there's also insulation chunks and a long splinter of wood siding on my back porch. Keep in mind I live upstairs on the 2nd floor. I don't know where the insulation and the wood blew in from, but it must have been some sort of building.

I was not expecting yet another severe thunderstorm today, we have been hammered lately, lol.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
EASTERN LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN THOMAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 1044 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF CAIRO TO 11 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO TO 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF WOODVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTICELLO...QUITMAN...BOSTON...GREENVILLE...DIXIE ...DILLS...
CAPPS...CASA BLANCO...MONTIVILLA...MOCCASIN GAP...LAKE
MICCOSUKEE...HAMBURG...WAUKEENAH...LLOYD...DRIFTON ...OAKLAWN...
BEACHTON...JARROTT...FINCHER AND EMPRESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

Thanks for the new post, JM+BH, and - back from a trip - hello everyone from Germany with a stunning flawless blue and sunny sky with very low humidity and great clarity to boot.

So no severe weather news from Europe right now, but meteorologists are intrigued by a stubborn little upper cold pool which is performing a rare and funny loop-the-loop around a high over the British Isles and which eventually should provide some rain for northern-central Europe in the second half of the week, very welcomed by farmers and gardeners. BBC explains the sneaking upper cold pool:

Upper vortex circles UK
BBC weather video, 20 April 2015 Last updated at 11:15
High pressure dominates the current weather pattern, so why did some of us see rain over the weekend? John Hammond explains

German weather video with its eye on the same cold pool at its arrival in Germany later on (loop at 0:40).

Current airmass picture with the cold pool just west of Scotland (orange/purple means cold air):

Click to enlarge.

Hydrological balance for Germany so far this spring, showing large areas with a decent lack of rain - not for the first spring, by the way, as droughts in the months of March and April seem to be the new normal for already several years in a row - not at the pleasure of sprouting seeds ...

Source.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 2h 2 hours ago

El Niño getting peppy already with Niño 3.4 into the moderate (>1.0) range for a couple of days- impressive for April
Quoting 48. LargoFl:

good point there


Er, wth ?

Solar can Power the Whole Planet, as we have a Main Sequence Yellow Star to do all that, 93 million Miles away,.

The Shill is strong in some,,for Oil, isn't it?

Hey, its Monday, 4/20, so what weather season is it this week in Fla?

TIA.

: P

After watching the rain blobs and squall lines repeatedly fall apart over North Central Florida, I have a way to reverse this pattern.

I plan to do a farm/construction project where I will need at least three weeks of dry weather. And soon as I start it and lease the dozer and trash pump I am sure that the rains will come back big time!

Guaranteed.

If this local drought gets severe I will start a "Go Fund Me" account to pay for the equipment so others in my AO are welcome to contribute to help start this project which I promise will bring on a flood.

You gotta know how the Rain Gods work when you want to change the weather!
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAYCROSS GEORGIA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCALA FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

Here you go!

From the Miami NWS Disco...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO
A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TO DEEPER TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE NAPLES
AREA WHERE IT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 10O KNOTS WILL ALSO BE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE 500 MB TEMP TO COOL DOWN TO AROUND -9C THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE...THE
STRONG STORM WORDING WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO PACKAGE FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY.
We were under a Flash Flood watch for 6 days from the ULL sliding east .,,sending Short Waves through every day.

Good luck,,wear a Helmet.






College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1045 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1035 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1016 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 953 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 930 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 926 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 758 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

Wacahootaman- just don't buy any stolen dozers!!
WOW!! in my Jasoniscoolman voice. Speaking of which has anyone heard from him lately?

really? mods and admins you re move that post?


so i gust what you are saying is then you dont care ?
If you wanna change the weather, one would have to dig up old nasty Dinosaurs and plant fauna Carbon from least 200-300 million years ago, that was safely sequestered in the ground by God and nature, Then refine it to sustain running suitable modes of travel, and to power whole societies, as you add the CO2 from burning those fuel,into the biosphere by the Giga tonnes every hour 24/7/365.

Thats how you change the weather, and whole climates at the same time,

O wait?

those crazy Californians...
Maybe the guy from Cali was just thirsty?

There is a bad drought out West.
Quoting 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

solar power charging stations
The way solar and battery tech is going, there will be major advances that step away from the pumps...Much to the dismay of big oil, and folks getting rich from it. Shouldnt be long before fusion enters the energy sector.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1137 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLZ020-021-GAZ162-201630-
HAMILTON FL-SUWANNEE FL-ECHOLS GA-
1137 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...SUWANNEE AND ECHOLS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1134 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF PERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. AS THESE STORMS
MAY INTENSIFY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVE OAK...JASPER...JENNINGS...STATENVILLE...SUWANNEE SPRINGS...
SUWANNEE RIVER STATE PARK...CROSSROADS...OBRIEN...BLUE SPRINGS...
LURAVILLE...DOWLING PARK...MCALPIN...HOUSTON AND NEWBURN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Quoting 26. MahFL:



Electric cars use fossil fuels, where do you think the electricity comes from ?...coal and natural gas fueled power stations...that's where.

(Largo) good point there
Not really -- all studies have found that charging electric vehicles from the grid, even from coal-fired power plants, emits less air pollution per mile of travel by EV than the same amount of travel by a gasoline-powered vehicle the same size. And in many areas now the mix of generating methods reduces the pollution even more. Plus most EVs are charged at night during low demand and excess generating capacity, so they even the load on the power companies. Cleaner is better.
Quoting 69. Patrap:

Maybe the guy from Cali was just thirsty?

There is a bad drought out West.

Maybe Californians should better model themselves on this region of Ethiopia ... there are so many bad news right now from Africa that I'm glad to share a good one for a change --- and with the Ethiopian solution many people moreover could save money by sparing the gym ;-)

Turning Ethiopia's desert green
BBC, 20 April 2015
A generation ago Ethiopia's Tigray province was stricken by a famine that shocked the world. Today, as Chris Haslam reports, local people are using ancient techniques to turn part of the desert green. ...
Quoting 66. Patrap:

If you wanna change the weather, one would have to dig up old nasty Dinosaurs and plant fauna Carbon from least 200-300 million years ago, that was safely sequestered in the ground by God and nature, Then refine it to sustain running suitable modes of travel, and to power whole societies, as you add the CO2 from burning those fuel,into the biosphere by the Giga tonnes every hour 24/7/365.

Thats how you change the weather, and whole climates at the same time,

O wait?


Some people do not see clean air...they see dollar signs. Why should the greedy care what happens to the Earth or its inhabitants as long as there getting rich.? Not a worry in the world, and if something gets in the way, they throw money at it, and it goes away.
Quoting Patrap:


Er, wth ?

Solar can Power the Whole Planet, as we have a Main Sequence Yellow Star to do all that, 93 million Miles away,.

The Shill is strong in some,,for Oil, isn't it?

Hey, its Monday, 4/20, so what weather season is it this week in Fla?

TIA.

: P



Hail, High Winds, and Flooding, Oh My!

Except for the areas with no rain and drought.
Quoting 71. hydrus:

The way solar and battery tech is going, there will be major advances that step away from the pumps...Much to the dismay of big oil, and folks getting rich from it. Shouldnt be long before fusion enters the energy sector.


Nothing really scales in battery tech, we are still with 1990's Japanese lithium ion technology.
It has been a while.
And it better happen soon.
Quoting 54. Patrap:



Er, wth ?

Solar can Power the Whole Planet, as we have a Main Sequence Yellow Star to do all that, 93 million Miles away,.

The Shill is strong in some,,for Oil, isn't it?

Hey, its Monday, 4/20, so what weather season is it this week in Fla?

TIA.

: P


yep..Our Sun certainly gets the most bang for the buck. 5 billion years on regular hydrogen, wth nuther 5 bil in da tank...Tha goys responsible for the star maker machinery deserve a sincere pat on the back..I should mention people here are making huge jumps on the fusion front. Not much bein said since ideas and tech are easily stolen from there originators..:)
Quoting 78. cytochromeC:



Nothing really scales in battery tech, we are still with 1990's Japanese lithium ion technology.
It has been a while.
And it better happen soon.
Greetings C...Help is right around the corner..And all it took wuz a bit of glass...:)..Link
As of right now in the Gulf, the strongest convection is actually well to the South and headed towards Western Cuba and/or the Keys if it holds up...............................
Storms starting to fire along the old boundary across central Fl.
World Carbon Monoxide. NASA satellite data.


Quoting 78. cytochromeC:



Nothing really scales in battery tech, we are still with 1990's Japanese lithium ion technology.
It has been a while.
And it better happen soon.

Lithium-ion batteries have come a long, long way since the 1990s. If you think there haven't been any serious advances in batteries in the past 20 years, you are misinformed.

NiCd -> NiMH -> Li-ion each had a big impact on the battery. Toyota (Prius) said Li-ion wouldn't work in cars for a long time, until Tesla went ahead and did it anyways.

Lithium polymer batteries are also making huge leaps with enormous power densities (discharge rate per mass). Example: Boeing Dreamliner (787) - these are the lightest, most powerful batteries you can buy. Lithium-ion still has more energy density (total energy per mass), but they're catching up as well.

My personal belief is batteries still have a long ways to go, but the current adopters are moving the technology forwards at a rapid pace. I think if any part of batteries (cost, weight, storage capacity, etc.) takes a leap and is 3x better than it is now, there will be huge changes across the world.
There are an amazing 20 severe reports relating to wind damage on the SPC site in the the county that Tallahassee is in, tree and power line damage coming all over the place. We got hammered.

Link

Thanks to the Dynamic Duo for the new Post,
Quoting Jedkins01:
There are an amazing 20 severe reports relating to wind damage on the SPC site in the the county that Tallahassee is in, tree and power line damage coming all over the place. We got hammered.

Link




Damn. Sorry about that.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Hurricane in the East Pac on the end of the 6z GFS run...



It is becoming favorable out there, and as has been stressed it should be a wild year for that basin, but the GFS is probably rushing things. May be related to (big surprise) problems in handling the MJO, which is an important factor for early season development.



Ummm...NO. Not this early.
Quoting 86. Jedkins01:

There are an amazing 20 severe reports relating to wind damage on the SPC site in the the county that Tallahassee is in, tree and power line damage coming all over the place. We got hammered.

Link




I mentioned in my earlier post this am that a large oak tree went down at my house in North Leon County (I was downtown at the time) even though things looked calm around the Downtown/Capitol area yesterday afternoon. It thankfully missed the house but took out a long row of Azalea bushes.
Currently Tallahassee has 18,000+ without power, and some of the pictures are starting to come in, there are numerous reports of down trees on campus and damage to the baseball facility as well.


Link
Quoting 90. 62901IL:



Ummm...NO. Not this early.
no its not early for epac
in fact anytime after mid april towards early may
can get things sometimes we will see
I'm exciting about 2015 pacific hurricane season
Here comes something for the SE coast finally!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1242 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLZ059-201745-
ST. LUCIE FL-
1242 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. LUCIE COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

AT 1242 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SAINT LUCIE WEST...OR OVER PORT SAINT LUCIE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...WHITE CITY AND FORT PIERCE
INLET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&
"...and it's headed my way..."
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
108 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLZ072>074-172-173-201730-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
108 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD AND NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 130
PM EDT...

* AT 107 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MIAMI LAKES...OR OVER HIALEAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...FORT LAUDERDALE...PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...
MIRAMAR...DAVIE...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE...MIAMI GARDENS...
HALLANDALE...NORTH MIAMI...DORAL...NORTH MIAMI BEACH...AVENTURA...
DANIA BEACH...MIAMI LAKES...COOPER CITY...HIALEAH GARDENS AND SUNNY
ISLES BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2609 8011 2611 8012 2592 8013 2591 8014
2591 8011 2586 8012 2585 8014 2588 8016
2586 8018 2584 8015 2584 8016 2577 8031
2591 8043 2615 8013 2611 8011 2612 8011
2612 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 235DEG 22KT 2589 8031

$$

SI
100. MahFL
Quoting 32. hydrus:

Electric cars are still better than recombusting pollutants into the atmosphere. Many will be solar powered in the future.

Oh and where does the burnt gas and coal fumes go ?...Fairyland ?
101. MahFL
Quoting 95. pablosyn:

I'm exciting about 2015 pacific hurricane season


I am not.
out of current event my station has recorded 1.03 in of rain
with more on the way shortly in the form of afternoon thundershowers
sun broke out in the clouds but that's not for long
Quoting Abacosurf:
Here comes something for the SE coast finally!


Yep, S.W. Flow is pushing everything to the east today.
I'm going to have to look out in the GOM for my chance of rain, unless I get lucky enough to get a cell to form right over me.
Quoting 100. MahFL:


Oh and where does the burnt gas and coal fumes go ?...Fairyland ?


What are you talking about? Net wise, electric cars are better than gasoline powered, especially if the electric car derives its energy from a clean source.


Lots of cloud cover here today. Should limit any chance of severe thunderstorms today.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade Counties. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out as well. Link
The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch
87 in effect until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following areas

In Florida this watch includes 3 counties

In South Florida

Broward Miami-Dade Palm Beach

This includes the cities of... Fort Lauderdale... Miami and West Palm Beach.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Lots of cloud cover here today. Should limit any chance of severe thunderstorms today.


We've got some thin high clouds, but it's been pretty sunny today.
It's also very hot and humid.
Quoting 107. WeatherConvoy:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade Counties. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out as well. Link


almost whole state of Florida is under a watch ..


Convective line growing stronger as the impacts of upper support from the the disturbance our moving in now, hopefully this will bring heavy rain the dry west coastal areas.
a lot of wind damage reports coming in around Tallahassee ..
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 133 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER OPA-LOCKA...OR OVER HIALEAH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE AND MIAMI GARDENS.
117. 882MB
TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-201800-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0001.150420T1733Z-150420T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 133 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER OPA-LOCKA...OR OVER HIALEAH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE AND MIAMI GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2590 8012 2585 8012 2585 8018 2583 8018
2579 8029 2588 8038 2597 8025 2597 8013
2596 8012 2593 8012 2593 8013 2590 8013
2591 8014 2589 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 239DEG 15KT 2589 8027

$$

SI

Quoting 91. weathermanwannabe:



I mentioned in my earlier post this am that a large oak tree went down at my house in North Leon County (I was downtown at the time) even though things looked calm around the Downtown/Capitol area yesterday afternoon. It thankfully missed the house but took out a long row of Azalea bushes.


Wow, not surprised though as damage reports are surprisingly widespread. Last night the model guidance had us getting nothing interesting today, original forecast was a 30% chance of showers, and it turned out to be one of the most significant severe weather events for the city of Tallahassee in a while. This is on top of yesterdays severe thunderstorm which caused damage to parts of Tallahassee as well. This has been one crazy 48 hr period for this area.

Some intersections are closed due to down trees and traffic signals being out. Based on the amount of damage coming in, this thunderstorm had an unusually large swatch of severe level winds for a longer than normal duration. The amount of reports just in Tallahassee alone would make for a notable event for a whole state.

At my apartment, we have mostly small to medium sized tree limbs down here and there, and we lost power for a bit, so nothing too terrible but it was still quite impressive here as well to see.

There is some wood splinters and insulation though on my back porch which blew in from somewhere, though I have no idea where yet. Based on this it looks like someone had roof damage somewhere and the debris got lofted and some of it happened land in this area including my back porch, lol.
Pretty nice hook shape with that cell near Miami.
Quoting 882MB:
TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-201800-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0001.150420T1733Z-150420T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 133 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER OPA-LOCKA...OR OVER HIALEAH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE AND MIAMI GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2590 8012 2585 8012 2585 8018 2583 8018
2579 8029 2588 8038 2597 8025 2597 8013
2596 8012 2593 8012 2593 8013 2590 8013
2591 8014 2589 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 239DEG 15KT 2589 8027

$$

SI



I'm only going to say this once, Miami residents.

TAKE COVER NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 115. whitewabit:

a lot of wind damage reports coming in around Tallahassee ..


Yeah a lot of emergency sirens going off, we got power back on finally here, my computer was running on battery backup when I was on here earlier. This is probably the most significant even in a while right in town. My guess is a large part of town had a good duration of 50-70 mph downbursts given so many tree and power line damage reports.

The radar velocity data did have one heck of a swath of 55-65 kt winds moving right over the city, it was pretty wild, I saw quite a bit if flying debris, though nothing serious in my residence, just small to medium sized branches down and power out for a little while.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201613Z - 201815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.80
INCHES. IN ADDITION...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -12 C MEASURED AT TBW THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS ALSO FORMIDABLE...AND TCU ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING DUE TO AREAS OF
HEATING DESPITE CIRRUS. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING FROM W TO E ACROSS
THE MID PORTION OF THE PENINSULA DUE TO THE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE NEAR AN E-COAST LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.

MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL AND WIND. AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE...WITH A CONDITIONAL AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD A SEVERE STORM FORM ON THE SERN FL SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..JEWELL/HART.. 04/20/2015
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


It looks like it's maintaining itself all right.
Hook shows up much better on this radar. Perfect hook on back side of the cell.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Hook shows up much better on this radar. Perfect hook on back side of the cell.


Not good.

This is not good for a highly populated area.
TWC showing the Miami cell "classic hook"
Quoting 88. 62901IL:




Damn. Sorry about that.


Thankfully though nothing serious where I live, just small to medium sized branches down from what I've seen in my apartment complex and we lost power for a little while, I would go out and drive around to find damage, but I'm studying for 3 exams this week, so yeah, don't have time for that as much as I'd kike to lol. My phone unfortunately can't post pictures on this site anyway.
Here is the split-flow jet pattern over Conus with the sub-tropical jet (per GFS) flow over the Northern part of Florida; in real time (not the GFS model) it is certainly possible that the jet has dipped a little further South into Central and South Florida during the course of today. I am sure that the Florida NWS offices from Central Florida down to South Florida have been taking balloon soundings to get a better handle on current Cape values.

130. 882MB
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLC086-201800-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150420T1800Z/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
148 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 148 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. A
TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER PINEWOOD...OR NEAR MIAMI GARDENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE AND MIAMI GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORECEMENT AGENCY WHO
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE THE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 2581 8027 2586 8029 2591 8029 2597 8019
2597 8013 2596 8012 2593 8012 2593 8013
2590 8013 2591 8014 2589 8013 2590 8012
2585 8012 2585 8018 2583 8018 2581 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 243DEG 15KT 2589 8022

$$

SI



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN VA...NWRN NC...MD...SRN PA...SWRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201754Z - 202030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ALONG THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL VA WHERE STRONG HEATING IS
OCCURRING. DEEPER CU FIELDS ARE ALSO NOTED ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM SERN PA INTO SRN NJ. A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF CIRRUS IS
ROUGHLY JUXTAPOSED WITH COOLING ALOFT...WITH DEEPER CU INTO THE WELL
MIXED BUT DRIER AIR FROM WRN PA SWWD.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL FORM WITHIN THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...AND ALSO PERHAPS NEAR THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN NWD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY STABLE SUCH AS
PA....LEADING TO STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AUGMENTATION ACROSS SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE...AND MD...AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F WILL OFFER A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD CELLS MOVE INTO OR FORM IN THAT
REGION.

..JEWELL/HART.. 04/20/2015


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...P BZ...RLX..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND
WILL LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE EASTERN SHORES THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
looked at a couple webcams in Miami and the sky to the west is very dark ..
TWC said a funnel cloud was reported at the airport in Miami. No confirmed tornado though.

The live shot of Miami is showing a pretty nice wall cloud on that cell.
Looks like the tail of the system that gave S C IL about 1/4" yesterday is wreaking a little havoc in FL today, stay alert. We were supposed to be sunny this p.m., but looks like MO just clouded up N-S, so odds of us clearing out and hitting 60 forecast are pretty slim. Just broke 50 around lunch, pressure up slightly to closing in on 29.7", W winds are picking up 10-20 w gusts in mid/upper 30s. Forecast for week is well below normal most of this week, upper 50s to low 60s, lows in low 40s, have even added some upper 30s in afternoon update, had hoped we were done w/ those.
The winds aloft around South Florida at 5000 feet (per the aviation charts) were around 60 knots as of the 8:00 am balloon soundings.  Looking like those wind speeds may have increased since this morning:
Thunderstorms now rolling into Orlando. Storms building very fast in a hot unstable atmosphere.

Great picture Scott
TWC is showing a very well formed wall cloud on the north side of Atlanta.
Looks like a possible tornado trying to drop.
Quoting 138. WeatherConvoy:

Great picture Scott


Hey buddy I'll be in contact soon!
Very interesting cloud looking SW of Altamonte Springs. These clouds look like developing super cells like what you would see across the Plains.
Quoting 139. Sfloridacat5:

TWC is showing a very well formed wall cloud on the north side of Atlanta.
Looks like a possible tornado trying to drop.


there is a severe storm right over Roswell, Ga that may be producing a tornado and large hail ..
Rotating storm right over Orlando International.

There are several storms now showing signs of rotation. Looking very active this afternoon.

Quoting 26. MahFL:



Electric cars use fossil fuels, where do you think the electricity comes from ?...coal and natural gas fueled power stations...that's where.


Internal combustion engines have an average efficiency between 18-20%. Natural gas power plant efficiency is 60%. Event taking in line losses a conversion factors an electrical vehicle is still considerably better than an ICE. Not to mention a lot more fun. Full torque at zero RPM? Sign me up.

You're also assuming that people get their power strictly from fossil fuels. Most places have a mix. Some places you can all nuclear. Some places you can select whether to go with full renewables for a higher cost (which is what I do). Or if you have you're own solar then chances are most of the year you wouldn't even using fossil fuels to charge your vehicle.
Quoting 144. StormTrackerScott:

There are several storms now showing signs of rotation. Looking very active this afternoon.




There was too much cloud cover in the Tampa area today to lead to anything like what's firing up over a lot of the state.
That cell north of Atlanta looks pretty scary to me. Appearance of a hook echo on radar is starting to become apparent.
Quoting 146. tampabaymatt:



There was too much cloud cover in the Tampa area today to lead to anything like what's firing up over a lot of the state.


It's coming your way too. Look in the Gulf as those storms are intensifying
Here's the cell that went north of Atlanta. It's traveling up I-85 now.

150. MahFL
Quoting 105. Astrometeor:



What are you talking about? Net wise, electric cars are better than gasoline powered, especially if the electric car derives its energy from a clean source.


Virtually no electric cars are charged from a clean source, even solar panels take energy to actually make them, energy provided by, you guessed it, oil, gas or coal.
Ever since that tornado warning near Atlanta, TWC hasn't talked about anything else.

It's been at least 30 minutes or more.
SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN VA AND
WESTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...BACKED LOW
LEVEL WINDS NEAR A WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE RISK
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WATCH.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES NORTH OF HARRISBURG
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87...WW 88...WW
89...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

Quoting 149. Skyepony:

Here's the cell that went north of Atlanta. It's traveling up I-85 now.




TWC showed a picture of traffic almost to a stand still wonder if it was along that stretch of highway ..
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
I'd hate to be on 85 east bound right now. ...drive FASTER!
Quoting 150. MahFL:


Virtually no electric cars are charged from a clean source, even solar panels take energy to actually make them, energy provided by, you guessed it, oil, gas or coal.

I wonder what uses more fossil-fuels, a solar-charged EV or an ICE car? Hmmm....

I think that you have confused "green" with "sterile."
storms starting to take off.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 3:10 PM EDT on April 20, 2015

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Lake County in east central Florida...
northwestern Orange County in east central Florida...
western Seminole County in east central Florida...

* until 415 PM EDT

* at 309 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph. This storm was located over Clermont... or near
Groveland... and moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Orlando... Sanford... Apopka... Altamonte Springs and Ocoee.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds... destructive hail...
deadly lightning and very heavy rain. For your protection... move to
an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy
rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water
covers the Road.

In addition to large hail and damaging winds... frequent cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors
immediately. Lightning is one of natures leading killers.
Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close enough to be
struck by lightning.

If on or near Lake Apopka or any other lake in the area..get out of
the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember... lightning
can strike out to 15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can
hear thunder... you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move
to safe shelter now. Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.


Lat... Lon 2885 8137 2861 8123 2837 8188 2838 8188
2850 8195 2854 8195
time... Mot... loc 1907z 245deg 37kt 2852 8178


Cristaldi
Cool NWS storm vectors and direction overlayed on Bay News 9 Klystron 9 Radar.

... Significant weather advisory for the development of funnel clouds
and frequent to excessive lightning for east central Palm Beach
County until 400 PM EDT...

* at 310 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
with rotation... capable of producing a funnel cloud near
Wellington... moving northeast at 20 mph.

* In addition... frequent to excessive lightning is occurring with
this storm. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in
Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. Seek shelter
in a safe building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Wellington... Jupiter... Palm Beach Gardens... Lake
Worth... Riviera Beach... Palm Beach... Juno Beach... Greenacres...
Royal Palm Beach... Palm Springs... North Palm Beach... Lake Park...
Atlantis... Haverhill... Cloud Lake... gun Club Estates... Juno
ridge... Palm Beach International Airport and lake Belvedere
Estates.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

For additional information visit the Miami National Weather Service
website at www.Weather.Gov/Miami. For information in Spanish, visit
our website at www.Weather.Gov/Miami/espanol.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
southeastern Florida.
I know that stretch of road well... from Atlanta to Greenville/Spartanburg. Would be a rough trip today. Pull off at a QT, gas up, get some munchies and hunker down.

Quoting 156. biff4ugo:

I'd hate to be on 85 east bound right now. ...drive FASTER!
Gust front is forming on the line in the GOM. Hopefully it stays close to the convection and doesn't race out in front of the line (that can cause weakening).

But pretty cool to see it forming.
Quoting 153. Tornado6042008X:

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA


Woop woop!

I is so excited. Finally, real weather after a long and (mostly) dull winter and spring.
Quoting 163. Sfloridacat5:

Gust front is forming on the line in the GOM. Hopefully it stays close to the convection and doesn't race out in front of the line (that can cause weakening).

But pretty cool to see it forming.



Is that the same thing as an outflow boundary?
Lots of lightning ongoing to my SW.


A look at the gust front approaching the west coast.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 3:31 PM EDT on April 20, 2015

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Marion County in northern Florida...

* until 415 PM EDT

* at 331 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated a line of severe
thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line
extending from near Citra to 10 miles northeast of Beverly Hills...
and moving east at 35 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Ocala... Fort McCoy... Juniper Springs... Citra... Salt Springs...
Lynne... Ocala Airport... Lake delancy... Moss Bluff... Lake Weir...
Ocklawaha... Anthony... Silver Springs Shores... Weirsdale... Sparr...
Santos... Orange Springs... Belleview... Stokes Ferry and Hog Valley.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds... destructive hail...
deadly lightning and very heavy rain. For your protection... move to
an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy
rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water
covers the Road.

Doppler radar has indicated some weak rotation within these storms.
Although a tornado is not immediately likely... if one is spotted...
act quickly and move to a place of safety in a sturdy structure...
such as a basement or small interior room.

Intense thunderstorm lines can occasionally produce brief tornadoes
and widespread significant wind damage. Although not immediately
likely... for your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of your home or business. These storms have the potential to
cause serious injury and significant damage to property.


Lat... Lon 2902 8241 2943 8211 2944 8206 2947 8206
2949 8203 2952 8185 2949 8184 2949 8178
2943 8178 2943 8174 2937 8174 2936 8166
2934 8166 2928 8164 2905 8164 2905 8166
2898 8166 2896 8168 2896 8231
time... Mot... loc 1931z 265deg 32kt 2941 8205 2901 8234


Hess
looks like it about to become the great poof soon



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like it about to become the great poof soon





I'm hoping it doesn't. That gust front could do the system in if it gets too far in front of the convection.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:

Very interesting cloud looking SW of Altamonte Springs. These clouds look like developing super cells like what you would see across the Plains.
looks like its all going on inland.... its getting clearer in east tampa area
Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of lightning ongoing to my SW.





It's strange, seems like yet again the areas that don't need the rain are getting the most over the inland and eastern areas, while the area in the eastern gulf really isn't the deep convective complex that would normally develop in this situation. It seems almost like the energy is "skipping" the eastern gulf/west side of the state.

Normally in this situation, there would be an organized squall line to the west with just isolated thunderstorms developing inland, but it seems almost like the upper support has skipped areas to the west and is focusing east.

Figures something strange like that would happen when the west side of the state needs rain. It's weird how unbalanced it's been, after having a really green lawn earlier in the year, my parents said their lawn is literally dead, no green grass left with just dead grass and sand since they already have poor soil after a dry March and no rain at all for April so far, and so goes much of coastal Central and Southwest Florida.

Even if these storms due hold together, they aren't really that deep, they are pretty skinny and so the duration of rain means probably only a a quarter to a half inch of rain with isolated totals of an inch. I guess it's better than nothing, but most areas will probably still be well below normal even with April being easily the driest month of the year on average.
Gust front getting really close to Largo.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It's strange, seems like yet again the areas that don't need the rain are getting the most over the inland and eastern areas, while the area in the eastern gulf really isn't the deep convective complex that would normally develop in this situation. It seems almost like the energy is "skipping" the eastern gulf/west side of the state.

Normally in this situation, there would be an organized squall line to the west with just isolated thunderstorms developing inland, but it seems almost like the upper support has skipped areas to the west and is focusing east.

Figures something strange like that would happen when the west side of the state needs rain. It's weird how unbalanced it's been, after having a really green lawn earlier in the year, my parents said their lawn is literally dead, no green grass left with just dead grass and sand since they already have poor soil after a dry March and no rain at all for April so far, and so goes much of coastal Central and Southwest Florida.

Even if these storms due hold together, they aren't really that deep, they are pretty skinny and so the duration of rain means probably only a a quarter to a half inch of rain with isolated totals of an inch. I guess it's better than nothing, but most areas will probably still be well below normal even with April being easily the driest month of the year on average.



Yeah, it will be a miracle if we get any rain out of this down here in Fort Myers.
Quoting 174. Sfloridacat5:




Yeah, it will be a miracle if we get any rain out of this down here in Fort Myers.


Yeah it doesn't look like you will, seems like the system as a whole may stall further north than predicted, you can see already how the energy with this system didn't progress as far to the southeast as expected, you can see the more southern end of line looks like it's already starting to stall. And the water vapor loop shows the jet streak already exiting to the northeast. A great example of it being further north than expected was our surprise severe thudnerstorm even in Tallahassee when we weren't expecting thunderstorms, just a low chance of some light rain. All the ocnvection was expected to stay well south of us again. The upper trough is just further south than expected, and this upper energy impulse also appears much weaker than expected, since the ocean convection relies on the disturbances for lift unlike the land areas. The amount of strong activity over land shows that there is plenty of favorable conditions for strong thunderstorms, it's just it seems these areas are developing more due to day time heating than upper level energy.

When you consider how much CAPE and moisture is in the eastern gulf, I don't see why these storms aren't much stronger and more organized in the gulf than they are. It must be the upper support was much less impressive and further north than them models had anticipated. What's new right?

Quoting 173. Sfloridacat5:

Gust front getting really close to Largo.

breezy but not a drop of rain here yet..sure is a strange set up today..storms seem to be jumping right over the tampa area and banging into the east coast.


Tampa Bay area
Thanks for the post Doc. It's a good thing to know that the tornado season hasn't been active at all this year (we're just 3 tornadoes ahead of the all-time record low for this time of year), though it's not impossible it could change later on, or we could still get a significant tornado later in the year.

On the blog post's topic, Odile's retirement was no surprise to me, and I heard the NHC would be removing Isis from the lists due to the military group a while back. Although Dr. Masters, regarding Atlantic retirements, this is actually the first time since 2009 that there were no retired names in the Atlantic, as Ingrid was retired last year.
People still playing volley ball out on St. Pete Beach.
Link
But it looks like a lot of people are leaving the beach.
Quoting 177. Jedkins01:






if a look back at my wv image its more or less zonal now
no further south from here
Well, you guys, and Wundermap are my only source for severe weather/tornado coverage as Weathernation and AccuWeather are god awful when it comes to that. I wish TWC was never dropped. They're not as good as they used to be, obviously, but they're still top notch when it comes to severe weather coverage.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
404 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLZ148-149-248-249-202030-
INLAND HERNANDO FL-COASTAL HERNANDO FL-COASTAL PASCO FL-
INLAND PASCO FL-
404 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HERNANDO AND
WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JASMINE ESTATES...OR NEAR HUDSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING HILL...NEW PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...HOLIDAY...WEEKI WACHEE...
TIMBER PINES...NEW PORT RICHEY EAST...BEACON SQUARE...HERNANDO COUNTY
AIRPORT...LAND O` LAKES...LAND O LAKES...JASMINE ESTATES...WESLEY
CHAPEL SOUTH...NORTH WEEKI WACHEE...GARDEN GROVE...MOON LAKE...HIGH
POINT...SHADY HILLS...BAYONET POINT AND JAY B STARKEY WILDERNESS
PARK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
might be a 3 min shower out of this like yesterday gee.............................
Still surprised that the area of convection in the S-Central Gulf is still holding together; trying to make a run at the Yucatan Channel.............................. :)


visible shows everything in east and one little streamer blowing in the wind in the west the rest is fading away



000
NOUS42 KTAE 201905
PNSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115 -118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-210715-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR APRIL 19TH 2015 EVENT...

.UPDATE...
HENRY COUNTY ALABAMA TORNADO ADDED.

.OVERVIEW...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, CAUSING SCATTERED DAMAGE. SURVEY TEAMS HAVE BEEN
DEPLOYED TO INVESTIGATE DAMAGE IN TALLAHASSEE, AS WELL AS TWO
LOCATION IN SE ALABAMA.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED PERIODICALLY AS THE SURVEY
TEAMS REPORT THEIR FINDINGS.

.NORTH TALLAHASSEE TORNADO...

RATING: EF1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.66 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 350 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 04/19/2015
START TIME: 12:51 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 5 MILES NORTH OF TALLAHASSEE
START LAT/LON: 30.4981/-84.3136

END DATE: 04/19/2015
END TIME: 12:59 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 1 MILE NORTH OF MACLAY GARDENS
END LAT/LON: 30.5443/-84.2574

SURVEY SUMMARY:
SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE WAS FOUND ALONG A WELL DEFINED PATH. MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 95MPH, WITH THE MOST FOCUSED
AREA OF DAMAGE AROUND MERIDIAN ROAD AND MACLAY ROAD. NO
SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED, ALTHOUGH ONE VEHICLE WAS
CRUSHED BY FALLING TREES. A DEBRIS SIGNATURE ON THE TALLAHASSEE
DOPPER RADAR WAS NOTED AT THE TIME AND LOCATION OF THE DAMAGE.


Confirmed tornado just a few miles north of me with yesterday's severe weather(not to be confused with today's event lol). I saw some rotation and what looked like a wall cloud north of me, but the rain was so heavy that the clouds were just too dark to make out any shapes of any funnel clouds or tornadoes. At any rate, what a crazy couple of days of severe weather here, a tornado, flooding and epic lightning yesterday, to widespread wind damage and more crazy lightning less than 12 hours later. I'm sure any senior meteorology student ares happy their last period at FSU is going out with a weather bang! lol
Quoting 186. weathermanwannabe:

Still surprised that the area of convection in the SE Gulf is still holding together; trying to make a run at the Yucatan Channel.............................. :)


may have to issue an AOI alert lol
Quoting 185. LargoFl:

might be a 3 min shower out of this like yesterday gee.............................


Well it probably won't be as much as the models showed, but you should get a lot more out of this than yesterday, there are some new cells that got stronger there recently which should mean a nice downpour in much of Pinellas, although again the convective complex as a whole isn't deep enough and large enough to drop really heavy totals unfortunately. It's better than nothing though, was worried that are might not even get anything earlier.

Unfortunately we can't say the same for areas like Sarasota southward. Looks like these areas may sadly not get anything today.
Quoting 189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

may have to issue an AOI alert lol


Except it is going "backwards" into the Caribbean........................... Lol.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLC035-109-202045-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150420T2045Z/
FLAGLER FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...

AT 419 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH TO NEAR BUNNELL...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM COAST...SAINT AUGUSTINE...FLAGLER BEACH...BUNNELL...HASTINGS...
ANDALUSIA...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...MARINELAND...SAINT AUGUSTINE
SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH...BUTLER BEACH...CRESCENT BEACH...
VILANO BEACH...BEVERLY BEACH...DUPONT CENTER...ANASTASIA...SPUDS...
ELKTON AND ESPANOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&
Quoting 191. weathermanwannabe:



Except it is going "backwards" into the Caribbean........................... Lol.
cayman islands
Quoting 191. weathermanwannabe:



Except it is going "backwards" into the Caribbean........................... Lol.


What's wrong with that? Hurricane Lenny a few years ago went backwards.
Nice mid-level vort signature (will almost qualify as a frontal remnant at this rate)  but the sheer is just too high this time of the year in the Gulf:



Was a beautiful shelf cloud. Now it's quickly moved to the south and the rain has moved in.



Link

TWC just said 50-60 mph wind at 1200 ft.

I've been talking about this gust front for the past hour or so.
Quoting 185. LargoFl:

might be a 3 min shower out of this like yesterday gee.............................





Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-081-103-202115-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0003.150420T2025Z-150420T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
425 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER BAY PINES...OR NEAR SEMINOLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...CLEARWATER...LARGO...BRADENTON...PINELLAS PARK...PLANT
CITY...TEMPLE TERRACE...SEMINOLE...PALMETTO...SAINT PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...FISH HAWK...ST. PETERSBURG...
ANNA MARIA...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EGYPT LAKE-LETO...
UNIVERSITY...GANDY AND BAY PINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS
QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 2802 8283 2814 8209 2730 8207 2743 8265
2739 8264 2741 8266 2760 8276 2759 8275
2750 8261 2788 8240 2790 8241 2783 8254
2796 8255 2803 8269 2782 8259 2761 8274
2774 8269 2784 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 256DEG 44KT 2778 8280

$$

RAG


Yeah Largo this will be more than the 3 minute sprinkle yesterday :)
some severe weather today
Jedkins rain comes down pretty good for a few mins the slackens then starts up again for a few,and just some good gusts of wind..nothing serious yet here..but I hear booming in the distance,just like those summer thunderstorms...ah booming just got louder
Dense Fog Advisory
Statement as of 2:14 PM EDT on April 20, 2015

... Dense fog advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 am
EDT Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 am EDT
Tuesday.

* Locations... coastal Connecticut.

* Hazards... dense fog.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... mainly this evening after sunset.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of
you in case a sudden stop is needed.
And the line weakens again as it hits the coast, not a surprise there but wish some on here would stop hyping these things when they seem to always follow a predictable pattern. I'll be lucky to get 0.25" from this.
Right Now:

A tornado watch is in effect until 10 p.m. EDT for parts southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. This includes the cities of Philadelphia; Baltimore; Washington, D.C.; and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
A tornado watch is in effect until 8 p.m. EDT for parts of north Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina. This includes Atlanta, Charlotte, and Greenville-Spartanburg.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 p.m. EDT for parts of central and southwest Virginia and central and western North Carolina. This includes Richmond and Roanoke in Virginia as well as the Raleigh-Durham and Greensboro/Winston-Salem metropolitan areas in North Carolina.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of northern Florida until 6 p.m. EDT. This includes the Jacksonville, Florida metro area.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the rest of Florida's east coast, from Melbourne to Miami, as well as the Orlando area until 7 p.m. EDT.
Additional watches are likely to be issued for parts of the East Coast this afternoon.
Quoting 199. LargoFl:

Jedkins rain comes down pretty good for a few mins the slackens then starts up again for a few,and just some good gusts of wind..nothing serious yet here..but I hear booming in the distance,just like those summer thunderstorms...ah booming just got louder


I think the severe is for a bit south of you guys, radar velocity shoes the damaging winds possible around Seminole and Pinellas Park moving NE.
Tornado warning for St. Pete.
But I believe it's been issued because of gust front showing 60 knot winds.



severe weather in the south to


5 day QPF. 7 day isn't updating for some reason.
Quoting 206. Sfloridacat5:

Tornado warning for St. Pete.
But I believe it's been issued because of gust front showing 60 knot winds.


yes just had a good couple of gusts here too
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
440 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FLC103-202100-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150420T2100Z/
PINELLAS FL-
440 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY...

AT 440 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST
AND EAST LEALMAN...OR NEAR PINELLAS PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SAINT PETERSBURG...DOWNTOWN SAINT
PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...FEATHER SOUND...WEST
AND EAST LEALMAN...GANDY...GULFPORT...KENNETH CITY...SAINT PETE
CLEARWATER AIRPORT...HIGHPOINT...TROPICANA FIELD...VINOY PARK...
CRESCENT LAKE...VENETIAN ISLES...LEALMAN...SAWGRASS LAKE PARK AND
ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 2775 8273 2793 8273 2793 8271 2791 8263
2789 8265 2787 8260 2786 8262 2784 8260
2784 8262 2782 8259 2779 8262 2774 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 272DEG 36KT 2784 8265

$$

RAG



This is headed right for where my parents live or maybe just a hair south, they said they are at walmart in Pinellas Park and the power is flickering from very strong winds.
78 mph wind at 900 ft. surging into Tampa Bay as reported by TWC.
TORTBW
FLC103-202100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0002.150420T2035Z-150420T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
435 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 434 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER PINELLAS PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...DOWNTOWN
SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...ST. PETE BEACH...FEATHER
SOUND...BAY PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...
GANDY...GULFPORT...TREASURE ISLAND...KENNETH CITY...SOUTH
PASADENA...MADEIRA BEACH...LAKE MAGGIORE...VINOY PARK AND CRESCENT
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
still some good gusts but don't see naything serious here by me yet.
Jedkins pretty much nailed the current convective activity over Florida a little while ago; a combination of the frontal passage along with the jet position (bringing in the most flow from the Gulf) with lots of help from an almost summer like pattern already with the afternoon pop-up showers (in the spine of the State) and the sea breeze bump again as the t-storms move towards the Atlantic.
Quoting 206. Sfloridacat5:

Tornado warning for St. Pete.
But I believe it's been issued because of gust front showing 60 knot winds.




There is definitely some rotation in there though, although probably not strong enough for anything more than an EF0-EF1 at the very tops, which with doppler velocities for downbursts as strong as they are, wouldn't be much different.
Calling for a super Nino would be as foolish as forecasting a break-down to Neutral by Summer/Fall!
still looks ok by me here,sky has lightened up and rain is easing up
Quoting Jedkins01:


There is definitely some rotation in there though, although probably not strong enough for anything more than an EF0-EF1 at the very tops, which with doppler velocities for downbursts as strong as they are, wouldn't be much different.


TWC just showed it.
It would most likely be a gustnado or EF0-EF1 on the gust front.
Quoting 216. LargoFl:

still some good gusts but don't see naything serious here by me yet.


Radar velocity shows the much stronger wind missed you a few miles to your southeast, my parents probably got nailed though as they are a few miles east of you, they are at the grocery store not far from the house said the wind is very intense there.
Reuters - Monday April20 2015 25 mins ago
Wisconsin declares state of emergency over bird flu in poultry
I've had 0.74", alot of lightning & not much wind (13mph).. so far in Melbourne, FL.
Off to class and the weather center to watch clouds. Probably already a geek-fest going on. Location is Millersville, PA. If I don't come back, I probably ran into the tornado, literally. Bye everyone.
Over 23 Million in the East Under Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including Washington, D.C. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but the biggest threat will come from strong thunderstorms producing strong winds and large hail. Tornado Watches are also posted for parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
You can see the gust front crossing the Bay.
Latest Rammb shots of the area over Florida and the Gulf; one big shear driven mess:


TWC just showed tree damage out of Citrus County Fl.
231. 882MB
Quoting 221. Sfloridacat5:



TWC just showed it.
It would most likely be a gustnado or EF0-EF1 on the gust front.



That's what I was thinking, it looks like a gustnado type situation, pretty common in the Tampa Bay area.
I knew Odile hit Mexico, I couldn't figure out where Isis hit. Then I remembered the US is hitting Isis lol

Can't wait for the weather the next two days, temps in the mid-70's, clear skies, humidity in the 30-40% range, gonna be great. And I haven't done this in a while, but since playoff hockey is in full swing...fun sports fact:

The Montreal Canadiens have the most Stanley Cups championships of all franchises (including defunct) with 24. However Montreal won the majority of these pre-expansion (pre-1968), which for most of its existence included just six teams (the Original Six as it's often called). Nevertheless, Montreal still has the most Stanley Cups post-expansion as well with ten titles, whereas the Toronto Maple Leafs, tied for second-most cups all time, has yet to win a championship in the expansion era. (Additional fact: Montreal is the only franchise in existence that pre-dates the NHL.)
Mesonet shows a 51 mph wind (gust) at Belleair and 47 mph wind at Clearwater.
Waiting for more wind reports to change (update).
Quoting 202. tampabaymatt:

And the line weakens again as it hits the coast, not a surprise there but wish some on here would stop hyping these things when they seem to always follow a predictable pattern. I'll be lucky to get 0.25" from this.


I guess it all depends on where you live, sure didn't weaken in parts of Pinellas, in fact it got stronger. The severe in Pinellas showed the dynamics and conditions are there for major activity, I just think based on upper air analysis the upper level energy today was weaker and further north than expected, which is why the stronger activity coming in off the coast is more limited, not enough large scale lift, more of localized boundary collisions and such.

The model guidance was to blame here too.
Interesting, Bay news 9's radar is in Pinellas Park, and the radar went out right as the tornado signature went near by...
Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog and Breezy

71°F

22°C
Humidity 94%
Wind Speed NW 22 G 31 mph
Barometer 29.91 in (1012.7 mb)
Dewpoint 69°F (21°C)
Visibility 0.50 mi
Last update on 20 Apr 4:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91°N Lon: 82.69°W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Clearwater's obs is north of where the worst came in and it still looked pretty busy there.
Lol Doc I reminded you in post 12 that Ingrid was retired....
Should find some more areas that got the higher winds.
TWC said a little earlier they saw 70mph winds all the way down to 400ft.
25% chance of rain overnight, chances increase going towards interior SE NC


VAPOR ANIMATIONS HOWEVER SHOW THAT UPPER
SUPPORT EDGING EAST...MAY HELP CONGEAL A SECONDARY LINE OF
CONVECTION WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR 21Z-22Z/5PM-6PM. THIS COULD
THEN TRANSLATE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IMPLYING PERHAPS A MORE
FAVORED MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR SE INTERIOR NC ZONES THROUGH EVENING.
THIS LINES UP WITH CURRENT SPC RISK ASSESSMENT AREA THAT SUGGESTS
STORMS GRAZING OUR VERY NORTHERN SE NC INTERIOR FROM BENNETTSVILLE
TO RED SPRINGS TO ELIZABETHTOWN CORRIDOR. MAIN THREAT STRAIGHTLINE
WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND DIME-QUARTER SIZE HAIL.


I would note for the spring severe weather watchers that the peak of climatological tornadic
activity is usually around April 27th and we are currently looking at a system moving through
the plains at the end of this week. While we have had a relatively low overall count the past
several weeks, we need to keep a close eye toward this Friday:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN
THE 4 DAY 8 DAY PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
EXTENDING NNWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE EWD ON THURSDAY/DAY 4 ACROSS A WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF TX...SRN OK AND LA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SHARPLY ON FRIDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF MOVING AN NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MOVES A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
CNTRL PLAINS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WHILE THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD MEAN A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT IN FROM
NORTH TX NWD INTO SRN KS. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SRN PLAINS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES. AT THIS POINT...THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS TOO GREAT TO ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW LATE IN THE
DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
Quoting 236. Jedkins01:

Interesting, Bay news 9's radar is in Pinellas Park, and the radar went out right as the tornado signature went near by...
yes and they now are showing reports of wind damage in area's around Pinellas county, some tree's down,fences blown down etc...they rightfully closed the skyway bridge there for awhile...just light rain here now,storm front is moving fast..35-40 mph eastward should be moving out of tampa soon...folks eastward of tampa..the strong straightline winds..are on the leading front edge of the storms...stay alert and safe out there.
Quoting 235. Jedkins01:



I guess it all depends on where you live, sure didn't weaken in parts of Pinellas, in fact it got stronger. The severe in Pinellas showed the dynamics and conditions are there for major activity, I just think based on upper air analysis the upper level energy today was weaker and further north than expected, which is why the stronger activity coming in off the coast is more limited, not enough large scale lift, more of localized boundary collisions and such.

The model guidance was to blame here too.
I would not be supprised if tomorrow they say Pinellas got an inch or more..came down pretty good there for awhile and then the light rain lasted,matter of fact its still real light rain here..coming to an end soon though.
Quoting 244. help4u:

Do they still issue a hurricane forecast on this site or is it just for global warming forecasts?
yeah there gonna be called global warming hurricane forecasts
Quoting 244. help4u:

Do they still issue a hurricane forecast on this site or is it just for global warming forecasts?
Hurricanes are basically steam engines. The heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere causes the conditions that form hurricanes. there has to be suitable atmospheric conditions as well. If there is wind shear present, hurricanes usually do not form. Certain must be present to allow hurricane formation. Warm oceans and seas are where hurricanes form most often.
NUWU Hurricane page

Link
Quoting 214. Sfloridacat5:

78 mph wind at 900 ft. surging into Tampa Bay as reported by TWC.
Damn you would think they are getting hit by a hurricane. Nonetheless, as soon as that line bumped up onshore the intensity increased. Good call on the gust front too. We had a severe thunderstorm issued for our area around the same time Pinellas County was issued the tornado warning. We have a Rave alert system at school that broadcasts on the monitors and goes to our phone during severe weather and we had to evacuate to the lowest floor of the College of Aviation building.
Quoting 242. LargoFl:

yes and they now are showing reports of wind damage in area's around Pinellas county, some tree's down,fences blown down etc...they rightfully closed the skyway bridge there for awhile...just light rain here now,storm front is moving fast..35-40 mph eastward should be moving out of tampa soon...folks eastward of tampa..the strong straightline winds..are on the leading front edge of the storms...stay alert and safe out there.
Yeah, they close the Skyway Bridge for anything above 40 mph.
Looks like that tree just uprooted the road.



A tree was uprooted in the Boulevard Club neighborhood of Seminole during Monday's severe thunderstorms. (Photo: Joan Hisock, viewer)

And I had to lol at this mattress that flew up against the roof, kind of reminds me of beell's avatar with the trampoline.



Viewer Kim sent in a photo of a mattress that was flung onto a house during Monday's severe thunderstorms. This happened near Park and Starkey in Largo. She said the other half is two houses down.
Quoting 249. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Damn you would think they are getting hit by a hurricane. Nonetheless, as soon as that line bumped up onshore the intensity increased. Good call on the gust front too. We had a severe thunderstorm issued for our area around the same time Pinellas County was issued the tornado warning. We have a Rave alert system at school that broadcasts on the monitors and goes to our phone during severe weather and we had to evacuate to the lowest floor of the College of Aviation building.


I wouldn't expect major damage though, here in Tallahassee we had a lot of damage because long duration tropical winds don't happen as often here, a lot of tall skinny trees here, not like the shorter more broad trees in the Tampa Bay area.

While it's been a while since there has been major level hurricane winds in the Tampa Bay area. There have been plenty of tropical events with wind gusts in the 50-70 mph range, and so a lot of the weakened trees and power lines come down. That's why I would expect to see a lot more damage from severe thunderstorm winds in an area like Tallahassee or the Appalacians compared to the Tampa Bay area.

When we had hurricane Jeanne and Frances for example, there were gusts of 50 to 70 mph widespread in the Tampa Bay area for hours including my neighborhood. Yes plenty of trees and power lines came down, but most things held up. Compare that to the shorter duration of severe winds from thunderstorms, and I don't expect as much damage.
Quoting 251. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like that tree just uprooted the road.



A tree was uprooted in the Boulevard Club neighborhood of Seminole during Monday's severe thunderstorms. (Photo: Joan Hisock, viewer)

And I had to lol at this mattress that flew up against the roof, kind of reminds me of beell's avatar with the trampoline.



Viewer Kim sent in a photo of a mattress that was flung onto a house during Monday's severe thunderstorms. This happened near Park and Starkey in Largo. She said the other half is two houses down.


It's strange that there are a lot of pictures starting to show up with trees down and other stuff yet SPC's site doesn't have any reports yet despite that there has been some damage.
Quoting 250. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yeah, they close the Skyway Bridge for anything above 40 mph.


We picked up over 1/2" from a storm a couple hours ago here just north of Orlando. The thunderstorms that are moving across the state are falling apart, except for some of the activity well to the south (where heating is still present I am guessing, since it has cooled into the lower 70s here). As the first bit of what is left of the storms (mostly just areas of light/moderate rain) approached about 20 minutes ago, it got dark and gusty. So I can imagine the full force of those storms as they hit the west coast was quite intense. I am enjoying July in April.
I can't believe I forgot to mention I moved from Orlando to Gulf Gate Sarasota Florida in 2013. Hate it down here. Everything is above market value. Guess that's what happens when demographics are filthy rich.

This August I might be moving to Tampa, Tallahassee, or even Atlanta(I'd really love that).
Local news met isn't really excited about our chance of rain down here.
He says we "could" see some rain tonight or early tomorrow, but tomorrow afternoon most of the rain should again be inland.

Then he said we dry out (that's almost funny when we haven't had any rain yet) later in the week but stay hot.
Mesonet shows that Orlando International Airport just had a 39 mph gust.
Also 39 mph at Winter Haven and 38 mph at Ruskin.
So kind of windy out there at some locations.
Quoting 255. weatherbro:

I can't believe I forgot to mention I moved from Orlando to Gulf Gate Sarasota Florida in 2013. Hate it down here. Everything is above market value. Guess that's what happens when demographics are filthy rich.

This August I might be moving to Tampa, Tallahassee, or even Atlanta(I'd really love that).


I'd recommend Tallahassee or Tampa, although Tampa can have same cost of living issue, but it depends on where you live, some parts of the Tampa Bay area are still affordable, and after an economy scare for a while, the job market have definitely gone uphill in the Tampa Bay area. I think the poor economic issues was due the fact that there was the huge housing inflation boom followed by the hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, those two events were terrible and the effects were long lasting. Since then though things have improved.

Tallahassee feels a bit too land locked for me growing up in the Tampa Bay area near the beaches, but it's nice here other than that. Great weather and pretty affordable living.

As for Atlanta, I don't know much about Atlanta, been there a few times but I don't know anything about living there.
my computer going to miss "classic"
Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cayman islands



We wish too much dry air and subsidence sure hope the ridging breaks soon......its depressing
261. wxmod
WX MOD along the Oregon Coast. Well, if it ain't intentional, sure looks like it is. But, it could just be California making an economy out of drying up the state. Good thinking! MODIS satellite photo today.

More than 2" of rain at PBIA today. We had to cancel our Greyhound races due to the severe weather.
WOW!!

;) <----
Finally got around to uploading a couple of wunderphotos. Hopefully I'll have many more when or if we get any severe weather here from now until june.
Quoting help4u:
Do they still issue a hurricane forecast on this site or is it just for global warming forecasts?

Well, considering it's April 20, I don't think there are any hurricanes to be making forecasts for...
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'd recommend Tallahassee or Tampa, although Tampa can have same cost of living issue, but it depends on where you live, some parts of the Tampa Bay area are still affordable, and after an economy scare for a while, the job market have definitely gone uphill in the Tampa Bay area. I think the poor economic issues was due the fact that there was the huge housing inflation boom followed by the hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, those two events were terrible and the effects were long lasting. Since then though things have improved.

Tallahassee feels a bit too land locked for me growing up in the Tampa Bay area near the beaches, but it's nice here other than that. Great weather and pretty affordable living.

As for Atlanta, I don't know much about Atlanta, been there a few times but I don't know anything about living there.


I bet restaurants don't charge nearly as much for a stinkin appetizer. Even a McDonald's meal costs over 6 bucks round here. Everything is inflated here because of the wealthy(or should I say corporations splurging of the rich). Back in Orlando, I only had to worry about this at Disney!
Tornado hits Brazil.

A strong tornado was recorded here in South Brazil today in the afternoon. The meteorologists said "EF2". The tornado hits the city of "Xanxerê", state of Santa Catarina. A meteorological station of INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) in the city recorded winds of 52 mph but the station is away of tornado's path. 2 people died and 100 were injured, 15 in seriously ill. The estimates are that between 40% and 50% of the urban area was destroyed by tornado. It rained 1,46 inch. More than 150 thousand homes are without power.
The photos of Tornado in Xanxerê, SC:

















This is the link of the tornado's video, sorry i just found it on Facebook:
Link




Source:
Link

Link
Quoting 223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Reuters - Monday April20 2015 25 mins ago
Wisconsin declares state of emergency over bird flu in poultry


Things are getting rough. Over 180K turkeys had to be put down at a farm about 30 minutes to our East as a precautionary measure.
Quoting 265. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well, considering it's April 20, I don't think there are any hurricanes to be making forecasts for...


But we always have "The Nino" to worry about...

Link
270. MahFL
Quoting 251. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like that tree just uprooted the road.



A tree was uprooted in the Boulevard Club neighborhood of Seminole during Monday's severe thunderstorms.


That is not a road, it's a parking lot.
I heard hail outside.Now its just thundering loud with heavy rain.
Looks like the SPC enhanced risk hasn't worked out too well yet today, most of the activity today was in the deep south aside from some nasty hail producing cells in PA so far.
Quoting 272. Jedkins01:

Looks like the SPC enhanced risk hasn't worked out too well yet today, most of the activity today was in the deep south aside from some nasty hail producing cells in PA so far.

Didn't you post something similar within the last few of days? That the damage or tornadoes were outside the enhanced risk area? (Or maybe I've got the wrong person)
Tornado Warning for the nasty cell above Harrisburg was just extended...cell blew right through Blizzard92's hometown.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
843 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 843 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SKYLINE VIEW...FREDERICKSBURG...LICKDALE...FORT INDIANTOWN GAP...
HARPER TAVERN...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...JONESTOWN AND ONO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
INTERSTATE 78 FROM MILE MARKERS 0 TO 8.
INTERSTATE 81 FROM MILE MARKERS 77 TO 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Quoting 251. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like that tree just uprooted the road.



A tree was uprooted in the Boulevard Club neighborhood of Seminole during Monday's severe thunderstorms. (Photo: Joan Hisock, viewer)

And I had to lol at this mattress that flew up against the roof, kind of reminds me of beell's avatar with the trampoline.



Viewer Kim sent in a photo of a mattress that was flung onto a house during Monday's severe thunderstorms. This happened near Park and Starkey in Largo. She said the other half is two houses down.


Tornado in South Brazil

A strong tornado was recorded here in South Brazil today in the afternoon. The meteorologists said "EF2". The tornado hits the city of "Xanxerê", state of Santa Catarina. A meteorological station of INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) in the city recorded winds of 52 mph but the station is away of tornado's path. 2 people died and 100 were injured, 15 in seriously ill. The estimates are that between 40% and 50% of the urban area was destroyed by tornado. It rained 1,46 inch. More than 150 thousand homes are without power.
The photos of Tornado in Xanxerê, SC:

















This is the link of the tornado's video, sorry i just found it on Facebook:
Link



Source:
Link

Link



Quoting 273. LAbonbon:


Didn't you post something similar within the last few of days? That the damage or tornadoes were outside the enhanced risk area? (Or maybe I've got the wrong person)


Yeah it might have been me, but I guess it could have been someone else as well. I like doing post analysis, since we can learn from what the forecast was compared to the outcome. I do this for my own outlooks as well, which most of time ends in a pretty sobering way, lol.
Another photo of Tornado in Xanxerê, Santa Catarina, Brazil today.



Source: Link
Quoting 276. Jedkins01:



Yeah it might have been me, but I guess it could have been someone else as well. I like doing post analysis, since we can learn from what the forecast was compared to the outcome. I do this for my own outlooks as well, which most of time ends in a pretty sobering way, lol.

I have no knowledge of SPC's verification process...how close are they normally?

On another note, has anyone heard from Doppler recently? I think he's from PA.

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 · 5 hrs5 hours ago

Notable westerly wind anomalies during week 2 forecast by both the Canadian and GFS ensembles #ElNino
nobody liked my notices and photos : /
One thing about the rain that we had this morning near Philly is this happened


... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Philadelphia PA...

A record rainfall of 1.88 inches was set at Philadelphia PA today.
This breaks the old record of 1.71 set in 1874.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
843 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

..sounding discussion...

Precipitable water values are back down under an inch and below
normal this evening. The lower precipitable water has provided for a really
comfortable day across the central Gulf Coast states. A temperature
inversion was located between 3000 to 4200 feet. Winds were from
the northeast in the low levels...then primarily from the east in
the middle and upper levels. A peak wind speed of 136 knots was at
40300 feet.

00z balloon info: the balloon ascended for 107 minutes to a
height of 21.4 miles above the ground bursting just west of Gulf
Shores MS 108 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 406 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015/

Synopsis...
latest surface analysis showed a cold front from Ohio to Florida
Panhandle to northwest Gulf. Surface dewpoint readings were in the
40s across most of west Louisiana and northern two-thirds of
Mississippi. Ridge of high pressure was located from southwest
Kansas to north central Texas. Upper air analysis showed a large
cyclonic over Minnesota with west to northwest flow over plains
and Mississippi Valley. Isotach analysis showed the southern
stream from Baja California California to north central Gulf.

Short term...
dry air and high pressure will settle in tonight through Tuesday
night. These features along to near calm winds will allow good
radiational cooling tonight and Tuesday evening. With dewpoints
bottoming out near 50f across northwest forecast area...cant rule
a 49f at mcb and north of btr Tuesday morning. The main trough
will shift east leaving a westerly flow over the forecast area and
lower Mississippi Valley early Wednesday. Surf high will slide
Georgia and return flow will bring in 60s dewpoint by 18z
Wednesday. Ridge over The Rockies will slide east and create a
west northwest flow over Southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. In embedded
disturbance will dive down on the front side of the ridge and
trigger convection over Southern Plains Wednesday afternoon. This
convection may hold together with the active jet stream and
instability in play. Isolated strong storms may clip the north and
east areas of forecast areas...possibly parts of east central
Louisiana north of Lake Pontchartrain...extreme south central
Mississippi and coastal Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday evening. Albeit is slight...hail and damaging winds are
the main threats. Cooler 500 mb temperatures around -16c will remain north
and hail threat will diminish farther south into our forecast
area.

With no real push at the surface...low level instability
will remain in play on Thursday and a chance of convection will
remain across the area. Upper level ridge will continue to slide
east and allow daytime surf temperatures to warm Thursday through
Saturday. Ridge will slide east as a short wave move east across
the Central Plains Friday through Saturday. Dry air entrainment
south of the wave will tighten the moisture axis across the area
Saturday and Saturday night...thus maintaining a chance of
convection. As the wave pushes east...dry air will press the
moisture axis south Sunday and provide a slight break on Sunday.
Another wave will dive south over the plains bringing a shot of
cool air next week. 18

Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with generally
only high clouds. Winds expected to shift from northwest this
afternoon to easterly by Tuesday morning with speeds generally 10
knots or less. Main exceptions will be those terminals on the
immediate South Shore of Lake Pontchartrain. 95/dm
>
nobody liked my notices and photos : /But we have enjoyed the reports from an area that doesn't get a lot of attention.. very well done and the info only adds to the entire wellness of the blog.. Thanks! It needs more than this to keep going. Please keep up the observations, they are well received by most.
Numerous tornadoes were confirmed yesterday, including 2 EF2 tornadoes.

Link
ECFL, looks like Apopka took damage. Had a 54kt wind at Haulover Canal in Brevard.

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW APOPKA 28.70N 81.52W
04/19/2015 ORANGE FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FALLEN TREES AND MINOR STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE IN APOPKA. PICTURES PROVIDED OVER SOCIAL MEDIA VIA
LOCAL MEDIA WFTV INDICATE SEVERAL LARGE FALLEN TREE
BRANCHES...INCLUDING ONE ON AN SUV ON HIGHLAND AVE...AS
WELL AS DAMAGE TO PORTIONS OF A METAL ROOF OF A CHURCH.
TIME ESTIMATED USING MELBOURNE RADAR DATA.
A snippet from NWS Norman's afternoon AFD:

THE EUROPEAN...HOWEVER...SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRYLINE...AND WOULD FAVOR A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DOWN
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS. EVERYONE WHO IS ANYONE SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA BECOME AVAILABLE...AND THE
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
Quoting 278. LAbonbon:


I have no knowledge of SPC's verification process...how close are they normally?

On another note, has anyone heard from Doppler recently? I think he's from PA.
SPC runs verifications, and the graphics of storm reports superimposed on their convective outlooks are available on SPC's convective outlook page. Look down toward the bottom of the page and you will see an archive search box. Search there. The list obtained will give you links to all outlooks issued for the time frame you requested - in a variety of file formats. You'll find the outlook verifications on the list also.

As far as accuracy, I wouldn't want any other group sizing up my severe weather chances. The SPC mets live and raise families in and around Norman, Oklahoma. They know what it feels like to be in harm's way - and they know how it feels when a loved might be. And they love severe weather. They are the best in the world at what they do.
289. vis0
a washi115 be aware...no not beware of washi115 but for washi115 to look W/SW and observe if anything builds (odds are strong winds) and stays intact...pay attn to NOAA radio
Thunderstorms over the District. Earlier thunderstorms brought with them hail.



anybody notice the incredibly warm, anomalous temperatures off the coast of East Africa. Some of the warmest water I've ever seen
Surprised the NWS in NYC hasn't issued a Flash Flood Warning for this nasty clump in southwestern CT yet:
Good morning with some very wild weather from Aussi land:



Sydney weather: Three people dead in flash flooding in NSW town of Dungog
Sydney Morning Herald, April 21, 2015 - 4:53PM
Three people killed in flash flooding in the Hunter Valley township of Dungog were reportedly trapped in their residences unable to be reached by emergency services.
Police said a woman and two men were found dead on Tuesday morning following the severe weather event, which continues to batter the Hunter, Sydney and the Illawarra. ...
NSW Premier Mike Baird said on Tuesday more severe weather was forecast to hit before conditions eased at midnight.
He urged workers "head home as soon as you possibly can". ...
There had been over 47 flood rescues and over 200,000 homes and businesses had lost power.
Emergency Services Minister David Elliott described the weather system as a "one-in-a-decade storm".
The 500 SES volunteers were risking "life and limb" to ensure that the people of NSW got through the storm.
"Today's events are going to test our emergency services," Mr Elliott said.
Evacuations were currently underway in Dungog, where the three elderly people died, and the township was now isolated.
Local newspaper the Dungog Chronicle said the heavy rain that fell throughout the night intensified about 4:30am on Tuesday.
Along with the three dead, four houses in Dungog had been washed away and the State Emergency Service also rescued a couple in their 70s as they dangled from their gutters. ...

Whole article see link above.

Sydney weather: It's not a cyclone but it sure felt like one
Sydney Morning Herald, April 21, 2015 - 3:56PM, Peter Hannam, Environment Editor
Perhaps it's no surprise that the massive storm that dumped the most rain on Sydney in a single day in more than 13 years, blew over huge trees and scoured beaches would in some parts of the world be defined as a cyclone.
As Rob Sharpe, a meteorologist at Weatherzone notes, wind speeds were gale force or stronger for parts of the city and up the coast since midnight Tuesday and even earlier.
"They have been consistently gale force. Gale force is the threshold for being Cat-1," Mr Sharpe said, referring to the lowest level of a cyclone. "We have seen that in Sydney and the Hunter."
In North America and Africa, east coast lows of the type endured by Sydney over the past couple of days are described as "east coast cyclones", according to the Bureau of Meteorology's website.
"From the wind statistics you can see that the Tropical Cyclone criteria for a sustained one-minute wind gust has been met," Agata Imielska, a senior climatologist at the bureau, said. "The more important point here is that the winds are damaging. Generally a threshold wind gust of 90 km/h or more is used to define damaging winds." ...

Whole article - with more weather informations including maps and charts (f.e. regarding extreme hight of waves) - see link above.



294. vis0

Quoting 284. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Rosetta's comet throws out big jet




Kermit's Costa Rican Twin: You Can See the Likeness in the Eyes (with video)




*** Oldest fossils controversy resolved
 



*** Cold Spot suggests largest structure in Universe: A supervoid 1.3 billion light years across...


* Black hole hunters tackle a cosmic conundrum





Scaled-up version of our solar system 130 light-years away



Vampire squid discovery shows how little we know of the deep sea

!!! Quantum model reveals surface structure of water



*** Strong currents promote release of Arctic methane

*** Hurdles to US climate change action are in economics and politics, not divided science

*** Costs for Germany's nuclear exit could rise to $75 billion

Why one town in oil-rich Texas is ditching fossil fuels

* Silicon Valley's Water Conservation Conundrum

!!! Dark Matter's Deep Reach
Interesting speculations



* U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increase in past two years

Shipwreck's 170-Year-Old Veuve Clicquot Reveals Champagne's History




i knew it! Grothar, finally got his SS# on the positive side, "-000-00-0000" never made sense to me.    It kept messing with the fabric
of  Quantum mechanics...almost as much as the Fabric(s) Lindsey Nelson (NY Mets announcer 1960s-80s) would make his suits from...i use to balance my Ektachrome with those suits, my goodness Bless Mr. Nelson.




nah its just the area between certain members & moderators...g r o  w   i        n              g.

more as to this comment on BB's
Ultimate URLs & a mini clip of "NYC lightning" (WARNING:: camera not
pointing at sky, too many buildings) on my blogbyte there under comment#80

0.24" at my location yesterday. The storms were moving too quickly and I was in a weaker spot on the line to really get any significant rain. On another note, it seems like the GFS is performing a lot better lately with precip forecasts for FL.
Quoting 293. barbamz:


It r sure feels like one. But it's more like you'd call in the USA a Nor'easter(but going SE)
Radar loop courtesy of Weatherzone.




(1 millimetre = 0.0393700787 inches)
The tornado warning on the cell in South Central Pennsylvania was within 5 miles of me with the initial warning. I could see disticnt rotation, a clear wall cloud and area of faster rotation that sure looked loike a funnel to me. It was hard to see due to hills and trees, but a distinct more rapidly rotating segment passed through an observable area to my north...I could not however make out whether that area extended to the ground. I took a short clip of video as it passed further to our north and then east. At that point what I was seeing was not nearly as noticable, but hey I forgot to video earlier. I know that doesn't look like much to a lot of you, but it sure was a peak weather day for me, something I have hoped to see for 20 years now.

Link

Quoting 295. tampabaymatt:




Looking at this model, I swore I read in here the California rainy season was over on April 1st, looks like the mountains are gonna get a belly washer, it's not a cure all, but this sure will help.
300. MahFL
Quoting 299. trunkmonkey:



Looking at this model, I swore I read in here the California rainy season was over on April 1st, looks like the mountains are gonna get a belly washer, it's not a cure all, but this sure will help.


I read they were going to get 2 feet of snow.

Quoting 275. pablosyn:



Tornado in South Brazil

A strong tornado was recorded here in South Brazil today in the afternoon. The meteorologists said "EF2". The tornado hits the city of "Xanxerê", state of Santa Catarina. A meteorological station of INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) in the city recorded winds of 52 mph but the station is away of tornado's path. 2 people died and 100 were injured, 15 in seriously ill. The estimates are that between 40% and 50% of the urban area was destroyed by tornado. It rained 1,46 inch. More than 150 thousand homes are without power.
The photos of Tornado in Xanxerê, SC:

















This is the link of the tornado's video, sorry i just found it on Facebook:
Link



Source:
Link

Link





EF1 at best!
metal roofs are good only as long as the screws holding it on dont rust. here on the bch side that happens fast
It rained overnight here!
I picked up .42", and the city got .61"

No need to water the plants today, finally.
setting up for an early wet season. scott was right. e cen fl.
Quoting islander101010:
setting up for an early wet season. scott was right. e cen fl.


Maybe, just maybe you'll get a little break. I was checking the rain chances and they drop off significantly over the next week.

Example - Orlando's rain chances are in the 20% range for 5 out of the next 7 days.

GFS shows a major push of moisture mid week next week. So any break in the pattern will only be temporary.
Lindsey Nelson, Ralph Kiner. Good times. Hot NY summer day games and cool nightcaps.

Channel 9 WWOR TV New York.

Meet the Mets
Greet the Mets...

Bring your kiddies
Bring the wife
Guaranteed to have the time of your life...

Sponsored by Schaefer Beer.
No Pepper Games

Quoting 294. vis0:

Quoting 306. islander101010:

setting up for an early wet season. scott was right. e cen fl.


3" to 5" for April so far for most of E C FL which is much wetter than average with much more on the way. 3 big days of rain coming up for C FL seems to be Thursday, Monday, & Tuesday of next week.

This coming Thursday looks very wet across FL. Could even be some strong to severe thunderstorms as well.

GFS is showing 2" PWAT's coming across C FL.

Quoting 307. Sfloridacat5:



Maybe, just maybe you'll get a little break. I was checking the rain chances and they drop off significantly over the next week.

Example - Orlando's rain chances are in the 20% range for 5 out of the next 7 days.

GFS shows a major push of moisture mid week next week. So any break in the pattern will only be temporary.


Maybe you missed this Thursday? Heck even tonight as the WRF model brings a impulse across the state.

WRF
Good Morning. The frontal mess exited the coast and cool temps in the wake particularly for the upper mid-west (along with snow):

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 21 2015 - 12Z Thu Apr 23 2015

***Large low pressure system over the Great Lakes***

***Snow likely for parts of the Upper Midwest***

***Scattered rain and snow showers for the Rockies***

A large upper level low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes at the
start of the period will be a key player in the weather expected for the
eastern U.S. through Wednesday. An occluded surface low currently over
Ontario is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of
days, and this will be close to the upper-level low.

In terms of sensible weather impacts, improving weather is expected from
the southeast coast to New England as the cold front exits the coast and
takes the bad weather along with it. On the west side of the large
surface low, unseasonably cold weather is expected for the Upper Midwest
along with some late-season snow showers. A secondary cold front is
progged to sweep through the Ohio Valley and reach the East coast by
Wednesday night, and a prolonged stretch of cooler than normal
temperatures is expected behind this front.

For the western U.S., expect some isolated to scattered showers to develop
over parts of the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada range each afternoon, with
snow showers for the highest elevations.


Scott and the rest of my fellow bloggers, 4.00" of rain in wellington yesterday in my rain gauge yesterday April 20th and already 1.25 inches of rain this morning minor street flooding occurring due to saturated conditions. Also my anemometer recorded 40mph wind gust with the mesoscale convective thunderstorm complex yesterday. Also funnel clouds reported in Boynton Beach, Miami-Dade, and Wellington Yesterday. I will let you know if any more convective activity fires up today. Hope to have pictures up for next update
And the split flow of the jet with the cooler polar air dipping down in the NW and the Upper Midwest:

Much needed break expected across N.E. Florida.

With the exception of the frontal passage on Thursday.

And finally with the start of the E-Pac season in about 25 days (May 15th) the current look for the E-Pac; pretty consistent ITCZ on that side of Central and South America continuing to rise from the Equator:



Quoting 310. StormTrackerScott:

This coming Thursday looks very wet across FL. Could even be some strong to severe thunderstorms as well.

GFS is showing 2" PWAT's coming across C FL.




yes, the front is going to lift back up as a warm front around Thursday. Local mets only show a 40% chance of rain for the Tampa area though.
Update on the ongoing severe storm which hit New South Wales in Australia (see posts #293/297):

NSW wild weather: Residents warned of flood threat in Hunter, parts of Sydney after storms kill three people in Dungog
Updated 21 April 2015, 22:00 AEST
NSW authorities say they are dealing with the largest storm operation in a decade after three people were killed in "cyclonic" conditions that have battered parts of the state for hours. ...


Saved image. Current radar loop.





Sydney storm strands Carnival Spirit cruise ship outside Sydney Harbour
SMH, Apr 21
As gale force winds continue to wreak havoc across Sydney, spare a thought for those aboard the cruise ship Carnival Spirit whose final leg into Sydney has all the nausea-inducing features of a carnival ride, sans the spirit.
The cruise ship has been rocked about in swells of up to nine metres outside Sydney Heads, after the NSW Port Authority closed the Sydney Harbour port this morning, deeming the conditions to be "far too dangerous".
"The port is closed to commercial vessels of any description. We simply don't want them in here at the moment," a spokesperson for the Port Authority said. ...
Also noting a recent article (link below) on the issue of Co2 and plants. A blogger mentioned last week that higher Co2 levels could actually result in more food vis-a-vis the greenhouse effect, mentioning how actual green houses do very well in terms of plant growth. That is however only one side of the equation when you consider the issues raised by this research:

Plants are one of the last bulwarks against climate change. They feed on carbon dioxide, growing faster and absorbing more of the greenhouse gas as humans produce it. But a new study finds that limited nutrients may keep plants from growing as fast as scientists thought, leading to more global warming than some climate models had predicted by 2100.

Taking nitrogen and phosphorus into account brought down the researchers' average prediction of annual global carbon storage by 25% compared with the IPCC figures, the team reports online today in Nature Geoscience. Such a dramatic decline could turn the land from taking up carbon overall to pumping it out by 2100, as the rate of respiration by soil microbes, which exhale carbon dioxide, is predicted to increase in a warmer world. This could mean that Earth gets even hotter as the land starts to amplify human-induced warming rather than slowing it down.


http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/04/plants -may-not-protect-us-against-climate-change
Quoting 317. tampabaymatt:



yes, the front is going to lift back up as a warm front around Thursday. Local mets only show a 40% chance of rain for the Tampa area though.


Well they expect those chances to drastically increase as the models are bringing a big dose of heavy rain and thunderstorms ESE from the NE Gulf.

0Z GFS


here's the 0Z Canadian model


here's the JMA from 12Z yesterday

NOAA & USAF Reserve hurricane team to embark on East Coast Awareness Tour

Excerpt:

As part of its efforts to build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA’s hurricane experts will tour six Atlantic coastal cities to raise awareness about the importance for preparing for the upcoming hurricane season. Experts will visit cities in the United States and Canada aboard a U.S. Air Force Reserve WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft and the NOAA G-IV aircraft, both of which are used in hurricane forecasting.

Public Tour Schedule:
Sun., May 3: Halifax Stanfield Intl. Airport, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Mon., May 4: Atlantic City Intl. Airport, Atlantic City, New Jersey, 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Tue., May 5: Norfolk Intl. Airport, Norfolk, Virginia, 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Wed., May 6: Myrtle Beach Intl. Airport, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Thur., May 7: St. Augustine Airport, St. Augustine, Florida, 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Fri., May 8: Marathon (Florida Keys) Airport, Marathon, Florida 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Quoting 308. HaoleboySurfEC:

Lindsey Nelson, Ralph Kiner. Good times. Hot NY summer day games and cool nightcaps.

Channel 9 WWOR TV New York.

Meet the Mets
Greet the Mets...

Bring your kiddies
Bring the wife
Guaranteed to have the time of your life...

Sponsored by Schaefer Beer.
No Pepper Games

Schaefer Beer..Drank a few back when..Good beer for the price.
Quoting 291. nwobilderburg:



anybody notice the incredibly warm, anomalous temperatures off the coast of East Africa. Some of the warmest water I've ever seen
Another sign the Eastern and Central Atlantic will not be active..Western Atlantic and gulf may be a different story.
Quoting 210. tampabaymatt:



5 day QPF. 7 day isn't updating for some reason.


I like what it's showing for the Sierras/Central Nevada. We're only getting one irrigation this year. Maybe. Our watermaster put the order in over a week ago; no word yet. It would be a GREAT year for an abnormally wet spring, but I'm only cautiously optimistic. "Hope is not a strategy."
Quoting 300. MahFL:



I read they were going to get 2 feet of snow.




Could happen. Two years ago, driving through Tahoe on June 1, I was driving through snow flurries.

It would NOT suck. I live across the street from alfalfa fields, and my two new bee hives (I'm a beekeeper now! Yay!) could use something other than sugar syrup and soy patties to make it through their first spring/summer.
Quoting 319. weathermanwannabe:

Also noting a recent article (link below) on the issue of Co2 and plants. A blogger mentioned last week that higher Co2 levels could actually result in more food vis-a-vis the greenhouse effect, mentioning how actual green houses do very well in terms of plant growth. That is however only one side of the equation when you consider the issues raised by this research:

Plants are one of the last bulwarks against climate change. They feed on carbon dioxide, growing faster and absorbing more of the greenhouse gas as humans produce it. But a new study finds that limited nutrients may keep plants from growing as fast as scientists thought, leading to more global warming than some climate models had predicted by 2100.

Taking nitrogen and phosphorus into account brought down the researchers' average prediction of annual global carbon storage by 25% compared with the IPCC figures, the team reports online today in Nature Geoscience. Such a dramatic decline could turn the land from taking up carbon overall to pumping it out by 2100, as the rate of respiration by soil microbes, which exhale carbon dioxide, is predicted to increase in a warmer world. This could mean that Earth gets even hotter as the land starts to amplify human-induced warming rather than slowing it down.


http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/04/plants -may-not-protect-us-against-climate-change



Add in the increases in water needed to sustain added growth (water is a limiter just as nitrogen and phosphorus and alsoinclude iron if we are talking about certain phytoplanktons), the research showing nutritional yield for some crops decreases under high CO2, like wheat, and plants that get more susceptible to insects, like soy beans, then you have a much better and more nuanced picture than just "Co2 is plant food".

Good post.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
In a controlled environment such as a green house, you can certainly yield some good crop production but in an open air environment (normal ag environment) you don't have as much control over the other factors and pesticides can only go so far if you have a pervasive predator that may have "migrated and flourished" to a particular location because of issues related to climate change (or moving to new foraging grounds as a result). It's a complicated balance all the way around when you consider all of the collateral impacts and you have to look from the atmosphere all the way to the surface (the biosphere) to figure out what is actually going on at all levels (from humans to the animal kingdom).