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March 2015: Another Warmest Month on Record for the Planet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:15 PM GMT on April 17, 2015

March 2015 was Earth's warmest March since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Friday. NASA rated March 2015 as the 3rd warmest March on record (small differences in analysis techniques can lead to slightly different rankings from agency to agency, and the two estimates were quite close to each other.) March 2015's warmth makes the year to date period (January - March) the warmest such period on record, and the past twelve months the warmest twelve-month period in recorded history. By NOAA's reckoning, seven of the past eleven months (May, June, August, September, October, and December 2014, along with March 2015) have tied or set new record high monthly temperatures. According to NASA, March 2015 had the 5th largest departure from average for warmth of any month in recorded history. Out of the ten months with the largest departures from average in the NASA database, five have occurred in the past year:

Jan 2007, 0.93°C above average
Mar 2002, 0.88°C above average
Mar 2010, 0.87°C above average
Feb 1998, 0.86°C above average
Mar 2015, 0.84°C above average
Apr 2010, 0.82°C above average
Sep 2014, 0.81°C above average
Feb 2015, 0.78°C above average
May 2014, 0.78°C above average
Oct 2014, 0.77°C above average
 

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2015, the warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed in parts of the western United States and Canada, various regions in eastern Africa, parts of Scandinavia and northwestern Russia, part of south central China, and an area of northeastern Australia. Record cold was not observed over any land areas. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
 
Global ocean temperatures during March 2015 were the 3rd warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 9th or 5th warmest in the 37-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.


Figure 2. Cars are covered under the part of a metal roofing in Prague on March 31, 2015, as the Czech Republic and many other parts of northern Europe are hit by extreme winds. Image credit: MICHAL CIZEK/AFP/Getty Images.

One billion-dollar weather disaster in March 2015: European windstorms Mike and Niklas
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth last month, according to the March 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: back-to-back severe windstorms (Mike and Niklas), which pounded western and central Europe from March 29 - April 1. The storms killed at least nine people and did approximately $1 billion in damage. Hurricane-force winds, including a peak gust of 192 kph (120 mph), hit parts of Germany, the UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, and Poland. The European windstorm and the February 16 - 22 U.S. winter storm ($1.9 billion in damage) have been the only billion-dollar weather disasters of 2015, as tallied by Aon Benfield. Two other natural disasters during May 2015--landfalls by two separate Category 5 tropical cyclones in Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia--may end up being the most expensive disasters in those nations' history (see below.) The deadliest disaster of March 2015 was an extreme flood in Chile's Atacama Desert, which left 111 people dead or missing.
 

Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Pam as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 10:42 am EDT March 13, 2015. At the time, Pam was a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds, and was just southeast of Efate Island, where the capital of Vanuatu, Port Vila, lies. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.

Tropical Cyclone Pam: Vanuatu’s worst natural disaster on record?
Category 5 Cyclone Pam blasted the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu on Friday the 13th of March 2015 with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 165 mph winds, making it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the waters east of Australia. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam's central pressure bottomed out at 896 mb, making it the second most intense tropical cyclone in the South Pacific basin after Cyclone Zoe of 2002. At least eleven were killed, 132,000 people impacted, and damages were at least $100 million. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, the only comparable disaster in Vanuatu's history occurred in January, 1985 when twin Category 3 storms--Eric and Nigel--battered the nation, affecting 118,000 people and doing $173 million in damage. By April 10 2015, reliefweb.int estimated that 110,000 people in Vanuatu still had no access to safe drinking water, and 6,000 people were still living in makeshift or temporary shelters.


Figure 4. One of the most spectacular images ever captured of a tropical cyclone from space: Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time, Mayask had top winds of 160 mph as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and a central pressure of 905 mb, as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency.  At its peak strength, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central pressure at 905 mb, the lowest pressure they have estimated for any typhoon occurring so early in the year (previous record: 930 mb.) Image credit: Terry W. Virts.

Typhoon Maysak: one of Micronesia's most expensive natural disasters in history
With damage in the millions, nine dead, and over 6,000 people homeless, the  March 29 - April 1 rampage of Typhoon Maysak through the Federated States of Micronesia ranks as one of the worst disasters in their history. Maysak passed through the Chuuk State of Micronesia as a Category 1 typhoon, and Maysak's southern eyewall passed over the sparsely populated islands of Fais and Ulithi in the Yap State of Micronesia while the storm was at Category 5 strength.  Most structures on Ulithi not made of concrete were damaged or destroyed by Maysak's powerful winds. The entirety of the island's crop were ruined by the typhoon's storm surge, with early estimates indicating that it would be a full year before crops could be planted again, due to salt water intrusion. The nine people killed by the storm made it Micronesia's second deadliest storm in recorded history, according to EM-DAT. Their deadliest disaster was Category 4 Typhoon Chataan, which dumped 19.90" (506 mm) of rain in 24 hours on Chuuk, causing landslides that killed 47 people. The most expensive disaster in Micronesia's history was Category 1 Typhoon Nina, which did $6 million (1987 dollars) in damage on November 21, 1987.


Video 1. The deadliest disaster of March 2015 was flooding in the driest part of the world—Chile’s Atacama desert, on March 23 - 26, 2015. As of April 13, there were 111 people dead or missing from the disaster. According to EM-DAT, this would rank as Chile's 3rd deadliest flood in recorded history. The largest city in the region, Antofagasta, received a deluge of 24.4 mm (0.96 inches) in 24 hours—over fourteen years of rain in one day! This video shows incredible flooding in Chanaral, Chile, on March 25, 2015 from the deluge. A better version of this video with sound is available on Facebook.

El Niño continues in March 2015
NOAA maintained its El Niño advisory during March 2015, as weak El Niño conditions continued in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. Sea surface temperatures were 0.7°C above average on April 13 in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. NOAA is giving a 70% chance of El Niño lasting through summer.
 
Arctic sea ice falls to lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March 2015 was the lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of April 16, sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest on record for this time of year, behind 2007 and 2006, according to The University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.
 
Notable global heat and cold marks set for March 2015
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 46.5°C (115.7°F) at Birdsville, Australia, March 19
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -74.4°C (-102.5°F) at Dome A, Antarctica, March 31
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 44.5°C (112.1°F) at Hudeiba, Sudan, March 29
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -55.2°C (-67.4°F) at Delyankir, Russia, March 5

Major stations that set new all-time heat or cold records in March 2015
Saint Brandon, Saint Raphael Island (Cargados) (Mauritius), max. 35.4°C  March 2
Cape Town (South Africa), max. 42.4°C, March 3
Cape Point (South Africa), max. 39.3°C, March 3
Robertson (South Africa), max. 44.0°C, March 3
Jonkershoek (South Africa), max. 42.8°C, March 3
Bata (Equatorial Guinea), max. 35.5°C, March 18
Santiago Pudahuel Int. Airport (Chile), max. 36.8°C, March 20
Arturo Prat (Antarctica), max. 11.3°C, March 23
Marambio Base (Antarctica), max. 17.4°C,  March 23
Esperanza (Antarctica), max. 17.5°C, March 24
Zamboanga (Philippines), max. 37.0°C, March 31



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
So far in 2015, five nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. For comparison, only two nations or territories did so in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records in a year was nineteen in 2010 (21 records at the time, but two have been broken since.) Since 2010, 46 nations or territories (out of a total of 235) have set or tied all-time heat records, and four have set all-time cold temperature records. Since each of those years ranked as one of the top twelve warmest years in Earth's recorded history, this sort of disparity in national heat and cold records is to be expected. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the national heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This is the third time this year Ghana has tied or set a new all-time heat record. Previous records:  43.1°C (109.6°F), set the previous day, on April 9, and 43.0°C (109.4°F) on February 12.
Antarctica set a new territorial heat record of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17. Previous record:  35.3°C (95.5°F) at Malabo in February 1957.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.
Samoa tied its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau. Previously record: same location, in December 1977.

Climate Change Bumper Sticker Contest
It's time to sharpen your pencils, cudgel your brains, and consult your muse: the National Center for Science Education (NCSE) is running a bumper sticker contest! This is your chance to help to spread the word about climate change education. Your brilliant idea could end up on the tail end of thousands of cars. Your climate change-themed bumper sticker can be funny, fierce, fiery--as long as it's good. The details: http://ncse.com/climate/climate-bumper-sticker-contest. Submissions will be accepted through May 31, 2015.


 
This week’s WunderPoster: Penitentes
The finely sculpted ice features known as penitentes are featured in the latest installment in our WunderPoster series (Figure 5, right). Charles Darwin wrote about penitentes in 1839 after a visit to the Andes, where the formations are especially common. In very dry high-altitude conditions, such as those found in the Andes, snow crystals often enter the atmosphere directly as water vapor (sublimation) rather than first melting into water. Random features on the snow surface, such as pockets of dust or soot, can affect the rate of sublimation and lead to a patchwork effect. The resulting depressions concentrate sunlight, further hollowing out the snow and leaving behind the majestic spires, which can range from a few inches up to 15 feet tall.

Penintentes draw their name from the spires’ resemblance to the tall hoods worn by religious figures during the penance processions of Spanish Holy Week.

All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. Sfloridacat5:



#486 says "radar confirmed."

When did the NWS start confirming tornadoes by radar?

I've seen cells with perfect tornado signatures including debris balls and they were not "confirmed" yet.


Dual pol radar has given the ability to differentiate debris in a storm from precipitation. This gives a high level of certainty of a tornado on the ground which was not available before. While yes some cases where obvious even pre-dual pol you have to remember the NWS is the government, so they probably had a policy forbidding radar confirmed tornadoes.
This is the same warned area that had a 'radar confirmed' in Alabama, with the warning extended into Georgia. The SWS below has 'tornado observed'.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

GAC053-215-191500-
/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150419T1500Z/
CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-MUSCOGEE GA-
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL
CHATTAHOOCHEE AND SOUTHEASTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES...


AT 1030 AM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT
BENNING/LAWSON ARMY AIR FLD...OR 8 MILES WEST OF CUSSETA
...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NORTH FORT BENNING...EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING AND SAND HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 8473 3228 8491 3230 8494 3232 8500
3251 8479 3250 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1430Z 239DEG 23KT 3232 8492

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN
12z Tallahassee FSU soundings:

Veering Winds check
Speed Shear ~ 40 knots
Surface CAPE near 2000 J/kg ~ moderately unstable
Downdraft CAPE 348 J/kg
K-Index ~ 30
Helicity ( @ 3 km) ~ 329 m^2/s^2 which is favorable for mid-level rotation (i.e mesocyclones)

Quoting 487. WeatherConvoy:

Good morning my name is Brandon AKA weatherconvoy. I am a GeoScience Major. The blogs on this site are mostly about how mainstream teleonnection, synoptic scale or mesoscale system affect weather and climate. I wanted to share something with everyone here about a professor's hypothesis about how a possible magnetic polar reversal is effecting climate and weather systems and how methane as well as CO2 is really driving the warming. My professor hypothesizes that with the advent of a MPR an uptick in seismic activity is to be expected and since 2009 its been really intensifying. I don't have the graphic but I am sure u can find the data that supports this. Remember volcanoes impact climate cooling and Warming. They release copious amounts of CO2, hydrogen sulfides and sulfure that becomes sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere. The positive feedbacks of a warming planet include methane hydrates release in the arctic and methane release from a warming tundra. Also there is a story about a methane hot spot in the 4 corners. Aldso there is a gradual weakening in the magnetic field on earth in places. his is a sign of a possible MPR. Your thoughts? email me or call me I am friendly
The Earth is a magnet. I believe that magnetism has an effect on the whole planet, indirectly and directly.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:


Dual pol radar has given the ability to differentiate debris in a storm from precipitation. This gives a high level of certainty of a tornado on the ground which was not available before. While yes some cases where obvious even pre-dual pol you have to remember the NWS is the government, so they probably had a policy forbidding radar confirmed tornadoes.


They're walking a slippery slope.

TWC just said that "earlier" we had a debris signature, yet they continue to say there is a "confirmed tornado" even though there is no longer a debris signature with the cell (based on what they just showed 10:45am).
Lots of population in the path of these cells. Hopefully if there are tornadoes on the ground they aren't too strong.
Quoting 473. LAbonbon:


Was wondering about him myself. I miss his regular commentary. I know he's upset about the pending demise of Classic, and he may have been one of the members who had comments removed over on the admin blog...

sar, if you're reading this, come back! Who else will give us detailed observations from SE AL??

In addition to a rain shield, sar's got some kind of severe weather shield going on. As far as I can figure, there were tornado warned areas in the counties to his immediate north, south, and east.
Storm track V1 appears to have rotation on the FL./AL. border. These discrete cells are the ones to watch out for. Also, a squall line may be forming out ahead.

Quoting 506. Sfloridacat5:

Lots of population in the path of these cells. Hopefully if there are tornadoes on the ground they aren't too strong.


Sincerely hope so. NWS-Birmingham sent out a tweet about damage in Ft. Mitchell (Russell County, AL - directly west of Ft. Benning), and stated 'possible tornado'.
TORNADO WARNING
ALC069-191515-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0014.150419T1452Z-150419T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 952 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR COTTONWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTTONWOOD...DOTHAN...KINSEY...ASHFORD...COWARTS.. .WEBB...
COLUMBIA...REHOBETH...AVON...MADRID...GORDON...MEM PHIS...PLEASANT
PLAINS...CROSBY...ARDILLA...SMYRNA...GRANGEBURG... HODGESVILLE...
ENON AND SIGMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Just as I post that.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 952 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR COTTONWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTTONWOOD...DOTHAN...KINSEY...ASHFORD...COWARTS.. .WEBB...
COLUMBIA...REHOBETH...AVON...MADRID...GORDON...MEM PHIS...PLEASANT
PLAINS...CROSBY...ARDILLA...SMYRNA...GRANGEBURG... HODGESVILLE...
ENON AND SIGMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADO WARNING
GAC115-129-213-313-191545-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0006.150419T1458Z-150419T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1058 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WHITFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
GORDON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN MURRAY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1058 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PLAINVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CALHOUN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DALTON...CALHOUN...RESACA...PLAINVILLE...REDBUD... EVERETT
SPRINGS...SUGAR VALLEY...NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...ARMUCHEE...
OOSTANAULA...NICKELSVILLE...LAKE MARVIN...RAMHURST...TILTON AND
AUDUBON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 8473 3454 8473 3433 8515 3438 8522
3459 8509 3459 8506 3466 8505 3473 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 227DEG 36KT 3442 8512

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
513. jpsb
Quoting 492. jpsb:




One thing that struck in the NASA article on MPR was the part about 800,000 years ago. Does anyone besides me find the 800,0000 years ago part interesting?


Hmmm, well 800,000 years ago the timing of glaciation on Earth changed. Earth entered an "Ice Age" 2.6 million years ago. For the first 1.8 million years glaciation closely followed orbital forcing as described by the Milankovitch cycles however 800,000 years ago glaciation began a 100,000 year cycle. Now there is a 100,000 years cycle in the Milankovitch cycles but it is a very weak and should not cause glaciation. It's called the 100,000 year problem. So did a MPR play a role in changing Earth's glaciation cycle?

Maybe? We all know that Earth magnetic field deflects the "solar wind" so do major changes in how much solar wind is defected around the Earth play a role in climate? Well of course the answer is yes, Earth would be a dead, bone dry planet, Mars like, without the protection of our magnetic field. Solar wind would blow our atmosphere and our water into deep space. But what about small changes in the magnetic field strength and orientation?

Some researcher think solar wind (or lack of) effect cloud formation. high clouds cool the earth(reflect sunlight), low clouds warm the Earth(trap heat). I wonder what happens every 100,000 years or so that cools the earth some 8C. Does our magnetic field play a role?

All this is above my pay grade but I did find it interesting that the last MPR coincided with a major change in the glaciation cycle.
Quoting 513. jpsb:



Hmmm, well 800,000 years ago the timing of glaciation on Earth changed. Earth entered an "Ice Age" 2.6 million years ago. For the first 1.8 million years glaciation closely followed orbital forcing as described by the Milankovitch cycles however 800,000 years ago glaciation began a 100,000 year cycle. Now there is a 100,000 years cycle in the Milankovitch cycles but it is a very weak and should not cause glaciation. It's called the 100,000 year problem. So did a MPR play a role in changing Earth's glaciation cycle?

Maybe? We all know that Earth magnetic field deflects the "solar wind" so do major changes in how much solar wind is defected around the Earth play a role in climate? Well of course the answer is yes, Earth would be a dead, bone dry planet, Mars like, without the protection of our magnetic field. Solar wind would blow our atmosphere and our water into deep space. But what about small changes in the magnetic field strength and orientation?

Some researcher think solar wind (or lack of) effect cloud formation. high clouds cool the earth(reflect sunlight), low clouds warm the Earth(trap heat). I wonder what happens every 100,000 years or so that cools the earth some 8C does our magnetic field play a role?

All this is above my pay grade but I did find it interesting that the last MPR coincided with a major change in the glaciation cycle.
Good post..Complex stuff
Quoting LAbonbon:

Sincerely hope so. NWS-Birmingham sent out a tweet about damage in Ft. Mitchell (Russell County, AL - directly west of Ft. Benning), and stated 'possible tornado'.


Yeah, TWC is saying some power lines and trees down.
They say "confirmed tornado" and then in the same sentence "possible tornado."

Just a little confusing.
Quoting 513. jpsb:



Hmmm, well 800,000 years ago the timing of glaciation on Earth changed. Earth entered an "Ice Age" 2.6 million years ago. For the first 1.8 million years glaciation closely followed orbital forcing as described by the Milankovitch cycles however 800,000 years ago glaciation began a 100,000 year cycle. Now there is a 100,000 years cycle in the Milankovitch cycles but it is a very weak and should not cause glaciation. It's called the 100,000 year problem. So did a MPR play a role in changing Earth's glaciation cycle?

Maybe? We all know that Earth magnetic field deflects the "solar wind" so do major changes in how much solar wind is defected around the Earth play a role in climate? Well of course the answer is yes, Earth would be a dead, bone dry planet, Mars like, without the protection of our magnetic field. Solar wind would blow our atmosphere and our water into deep space. But what about small changes in the magnetic field strength and orientation?

Some researcher think solar wind (or lack of) effect cloud formation. high clouds cool the earth(reflect sunlight), low clouds warm the Earth(trap heat). I wonder what happens every 100,000 years or so that cools the earth some 8C. Does our magnetic field play a role?

All this is above my pay grade but I did find it interesting that the last MPR coincided with a major change in the glaciation cycle.


What a load of conspiratorial crap.

"Another doomsday hypothesis about a geomagnetic flip plays up fears about incoming solar activity. This suggestion mistakenly assumes that a pole reversal would momentarily leave Earth without the magnetic field that protects us from solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun. But, while Earth's magnetic field can indeed weaken and strengthen over time, there is no indication that it has ever disappeared completely. A weaker field would certainly lead to a small increase in solar radiation on Earth – as well as a beautiful display of aurora at lower latitudes - but nothing deadly. Moreover, even with a weakened magnetic field, Earth's thick atmosphere also offers protection against the sun's incoming particles.

The science shows that magnetic pole reversal is – in terms of geologic time scales – a common occurrence that happens gradually over millennia. While the conditions that cause polarity reversals are not entirely predictable – the north pole's movement could subtly change direction, for instance – there is nothing in the millions of years of geologic record to suggest that any of the 2012 doomsday scenarios connected to a pole reversal should be taken seriously. A reversal might, however, be good business for magnetic compass manufacturer" Link



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's getting to be that time of the year again. The GFS and some of its ensembles have been playing with the idea of our first organized disturbance or even tropical cyclone in the East Pacific during the first few days of May.



Interesting
CFS was also indicating a caribbean/bahamas/florida event some time between May 4-16

CFS showed pressure anomaly's lowering a good amount over the area plus rain anomaly's

Anyway there was headlines that said "Could we have our first TS or Hurricane in May/June, yes it's very possible"

But anyway still too early to know let's wait till we get to the end of this month and into early May
There is a lot, and I mean a lot of research showing the most likely reason for the 100,000 year cycle is Northern Hemisphere summer insolation...

"The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial–interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes1. The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial–interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination2, 3, because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores4, 5. This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation5, and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores6, 7, 8, 9 and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations3, 10, 11." Link

This is the most likely scenario based on current observational evidence. When you hear people talk about magnetic pole reversal, run, it is a sure sign of quackery.
Lol I see Scott still trying with his stong/super strong El Niño

Look I say weak moderate at best that it no stong or super or apocalyptic El Niño
Quoting jpsb:
The scariest thing about global warming? Giant, super-fast spiders


Ick!


Be friends with spiders lol they might make you get spidy powers lol
Quoting 517. jpsb:

The scariest thing about global warming? Giant, super-fast spiders


Ick!


Actually this isn't the scariest thing about Global Warming.
Quoting 516. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, TWC is saying some power lines and trees down.
They say "confirmed tornado" and then in the same sentence "possible tornado."

Just a little confusing.

Bingo
Quoting 518. Naga5000:



What a load of conspiratorial crap.

"Another doomsday hypothesis about a geomagnetic flip plays up fears about incoming solar activity. This suggestion mistakenly assumes that a pole reversal would momentarily leave Earth without the magnetic field that protects us from solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun. But, while Earth's magnetic field can indeed weaken and strengthen over time, there is no indication that it has ever disappeared completely. A weaker field would certainly lead to a small increase in solar radiation on Earth – as well as a beautiful display of aurora at lower latitudes - but nothing deadly. Moreover, even with a weakened magnetic field, Earth's thick atmosphere also offers protection against the sun's incoming particles.

The science shows that magnetic pole reversal is – in terms of geologic time scales – a common occurrence that happens gradually over millennia. While the conditions that cause polarity reversals are not entirely predictable – the north pole's movement could subtly change direction, for instance – there is nothing in the millions of years of geologic record to suggest that any of the 2012 doomsday scenarios connected to a pole reversal should be taken seriously. A reversal might, however, be good business for magnetic compass manufacturer" Link




What about billions of years of geologic record? Could the very same thing that has happen to Mars overtime, happen to Earth overtime? Or is Earth in that perfect spot in our galaxy that we are protected against such an occurrence?

Nov. 21, 2008: Researchers have found new evidence that the atmosphere of Mars is being stripped away by solar wind. It's not a gently continuous erosion, but rather a ripping process in which chunks of Martian air detach themselves from the planet and tumble into deep space. This surprising mechanism could help solve a longstanding mystery about the Red Planet.
"It helps explain why Mars has so little air," says David Brain of UC Berkeley, who presented the findings at the 2008 Huntsville Plasma Workshop on October 27th.

Billions of years ago, Mars had a lot more air than it does today. (Note: Martian "air" is primarily carbon dioxide, not the nitrogen-oxygen mix we breathe on Earth.) Ancient martian lake-beds and river channels tell the tale of a planet covered by abundant water and wrapped in an atmosphere thick enough to prevent that water from evaporating into space. Some researchers believe the atmosphere of Mars was once as thick as Earth's. Today, however, all those lakes and rivers are dry and the atmospheric pressure on Mars is only 1% that of Earth at sea-level. A cup of water placed almost anywhere on the Martian surface would quickly and violently boil away—a result of the super-low air pressure.

Link
Quoting 523. georgevandenberghe:



Actually this isn't the scariest thing about Global Warming.


It is if you're arac . . . erm . . . really, really scared of spiders.
527. jpsb
Quoting 518. Naga5000:



What a load of conspiratorial crap.



From 1874:

"When I began my physical studies [in Munich in 1874] and sought advice from my venerable teacher Philipp von Jolly... he portrayed to me physics as a highly developed, almost fully matured science... Possibly in one or another nook there would perhaps be a dust particle or a small bubble to be examined and classified, but the system as a whole stood there fairly secured, and theoretical physics approached visibly that degree of perfection which, for example, geometry has had already for centuries."
- from a 1924 lecture by Max Planck (Sci. Am, Feb 1996 p.10)


From ca. 1875:

"Sometimes I really regret that I did not live in those times when there was still so much that was new; to be sure enough much is yet unknown, but I do not think that it will be possible to discover anything easily nowadays that would lead us to revise our entire outlook as radically as was possible in the days when telescopes and microscopes were still new."
- Heinrich Hertz as a physics student


From 1888:

"We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy."
- Simon Newcomb, early American astronomer


From 1894:

"The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be looked for in the sixth place of decimals."
- Albert. A. Michelson, speech at the dedication of Ryerson Physics Lab, U. of Chicago 1894


From 1900:

"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement" - Lord Kelvin


From a bit earlier:

"So many centuries after the Creation, it is unlikely that anyone could find hitherto unknown lands of any value." - Spanish Royal Commission, rejecting Christopher Columbus' proposal to sail west.


Science is at its end, all the important things have already been discovered!
Threw in the towel and turned on my AC yesterday in College Park Md since everyone felt bad. Probably won't need it again this month. Long term GFS suggests instead I may need my last few pieces of wood for the woodstove.
Quoting 525. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What about billions of years of geologic record? Could the very same thing that has happen to Mars overtime, happen to Earth overtime? Or is Earth in that perfect spot in our galaxy that we are protected against such an occurrence?

Nov. 21, 2008: Researchers have found new evidence that the atmosphere of Mars is being stripped away by solar wind. It's not a gently continuous erosion, but rather a ripping process in which chunks of Martian air detach themselves from the planet and tumble into deep space. This surprising mechanism could help solve a longstanding mystery about the Red Planet.
"It helps explain why Mars has so little air," says David Brain of UC Berkeley, who presented the findings at the 2008 Huntsville Plasma Workshop on October 27th.

Billions of years ago, Mars had a lot more air than it does today. (Note: Martian "air" is primarily carbon dioxide, not the nitrogen-oxygen mix we breathe on Earth.) Ancient martian lake-beds and river channels tell the tale of a planet covered by abundant water and wrapped in an atmosphere thick enough to prevent that water from evaporating into space. Some researchers believe the atmosphere of Mars was once as thick as Earth's. Today, however, all those lakes and rivers are dry and the atmospheric pressure on Mars is only 1% that of Earth at sea-level. A cup of water placed almost anywhere on the Martian surface would quickly and violently boil away—a result of the super-low air pressure.

Link
Part of the reason Mars has little atmosphere is it only has a tenth the mass of the Earth. While Mars may have had a much thicker atmosphere billions of years ago, it was lost over time due to the lack of gravity to hold it in place. Collisions on a smaller planet like Mars did not help either, losing some with large impacts. Solar wind may have played a part, but it is a small planet , and unlike some of the moons in our Solar System that orbit the gas giants and keep there atmosphere, Mars is a different matter entirely.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1122 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015
..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...
CARROLL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...FREDERICK MD...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...
NORTHWEST HARFORD...NORTHWEST HOWARD...NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY...
PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEAST HARFORD AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS
CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...EASTERN LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK AND WESTERN LOUDOUN. IN
NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...JEFFERSON.

* FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...ENDING BY THE MIDDLE MORNING FOR THE
BALTIMORE METRO AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND ONE AND A HALF
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METRO AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTIN MOUNTAIN.

* EXPECT SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE...POSSIBLY OVERFLOWING
THEIR BANKS. IN ADDITION...FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

PLEASE MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1148 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTH CENTRAL GADSDEN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1147 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 16
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIO...LOWRY...TELOGIA...BLOXHAM AND HOSFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 8486 3031 8490 3052 8467 3032 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 238DEG 27KT 3029 8484
Quoting 529. hydrus:

Part of the reason Mars has little atmosphere is it only has a tenth the mass of the Earth. While Mars may have had a much thicker atmosphere billions of years ago, it was lost over time due to the lack of gravity to hold it in place. Collisions on a smaller planet like Mars did not help either, losing some with large impacts. Solar wind may have played a part, but it is a small planet , and unlike some of the moons in our Solar System that orbit the gas giants and keep there atmosphere, Mars is a different matter entirely.
What Mars Looked Like 4 Billion Years Ago

Today, Mars is a cold, desert world. Liquid water cannot exist pervasively on its surface due to the low atmospheric pressure and surface temperature, although there is evidence for spurts of liquid flow that perhaps consist of a briny solution with reduced freezing temperature. Water under current conditions can be ice or sublimate directly into vapor without staying in a liquid phase.

Around 4 billions of years ago when the planet was young, it appears to have had a thick atmosphere that was warm enough to support oceans of liquid water – a critical ingredient for life.

Just pure speculation, but what if the same processes that degraded the atmosphere of Mars 4 billion years ago also happens to degrade the atmosphere of Earth 4 billion years from now? Of course the Earth will have gone through many climatic changes and perhaps an apocalyptic event or two between now and then, maybe more. The human species will almost certainly cease to exist at that time and will have likely gone through many transformations. It is interesting from an astronomical perspective.
Quoting 525. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What about billions of years of geologic record? Could the very same thing that has happen to Mars overtime, happen to Earth overtime? Or is Earth in that perfect spot in our galaxy that we are protected against such an occurrence?

Nov. 21, 2008: Researchers have found new evidence that the atmosphere of Mars is being stripped away by solar wind. It's not a gently continuous erosion, but rather a ripping process in which chunks of Martian air detach themselves from the planet and tumble into deep space. This surprising mechanism could help solve a longstanding mystery about the Red Planet.
"It helps explain why Mars has so little air," says David Brain of UC Berkeley, who presented the findings at the 2008 Huntsville Plasma Workshop on October 27th.

Billions of years ago, Mars had a lot more air than it does today. (Note: Martian "air" is primarily carbon dioxide, not the nitrogen-oxygen mix we breathe on Earth.) Ancient martian lake-beds and river channels tell the tale of a planet covered by abundant water and wrapped in an atmosphere thick enough to prevent that water from evaporating into space. Some researchers believe the atmosphere of Mars was once as thick as Earth's. Today, however, all those lakes and rivers are dry and the atmospheric pressure on Mars is only 1% that of Earth at sea-level. A cup of water placed almost anywhere on the Martian surface would quickly and violently boil away—a result of the super-low air pressure.

Link


Id like to prevent that from happening here.
Think the blog ate my recent post. Good Day Folks. Had to do a little work today and just got to the office in downtown Tallahassee. Big boom from the front about 3 minutes to my west. Will report back if I see anything other than a few limbs or garbage can lids flying around the next few hours................................... :)

538. jpsb
Quoting 529. hydrus:

Part of the reason Mars has little atmosphere is it only has a tenth the mass of the Earth. While Mars may have had a much thicker atmosphere billions of years ago, it was lost over time due to the lack of gravity to hold it in place. Collisions on a smaller planet like Mars did not help either, losing some with large impacts. Solar wind may have played a part, but it is a small planet , and unlike some of the moons in our Solar System that orbit the gas giants and keep there atmosphere, Mars is a different matter entirely.


speaking of collisions on Mars .... Rare Mars Rocks Crashed to Earth in July

Certainly having a small mass did not help Mars to retain it's atmosphere but I think a bigger problem is a lack of a magnetic field. Mars core cooled billions of years ago and without a solid core rotating in a liquid core no magnetic field.

Now Earth core (and atmosphere) is an interesting story. (load of crap?) Short version

Back in the day (about 4.5 billion years ago) The young Earth had a thick Venus like atmosphere. Then along came Theia, a Mars sized planet, that wacked into the proto Earth.



This cosmic collision forever changed Earth and made life as we know it possible here.

First the collision blew the thick early atmosphere into space allowing the great bombardment to deliver a lighter nitrogen atmosphere.


Second Theia heavy iron core merged with Earth's core giving Earth a larger core then it should have not to mention all the heat that totally melted the young Earth some of which we retain to this very day!

And last but bvy no means least the collision turned the young Earth from a solitary planet into a binary (Earth Moon) planetary system.



when the moon formed it was only 25,000ish miles from the Earth. tides were 100's (if not 1,000s) of feet high. Talk about a slouching mixing bowl stirring up the primordial stew. Lol



The Earth is really a very very special place and we are very lucky to be here.

Quoting 534. LargoFl:




Is that going to be the only area of interest today, or are others on the way, later?
Later this afternoon Arkansas. Louisiana, and S.E. Texas should really get going.

SPC has one confirmed tornado so far for today.

3 WSW ABBEVILLE HENRY AL 3155 8529 STATE TROOPER REPORTED TRAIN CARS OVERTURNED NEAR HIGHWAY 431 ... MILE MARKER 38. (TAE)

Many damage reports of trees down that the NWS needs to check to see if the damage was caused by straight winds or a possible tornado.

TWC just showed partial roof damage to a two story home.
542. jpsb
Quoting 532. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What Mars Looked Like 4 Billion Years Ago

Today, Mars is a cold, desert world. Liquid water cannot exist pervasively on its surface due to the low atmospheric pressure and surface temperature, although there is evidence for spurts of liquid flow that perhaps consist of a briny solution with reduced freezing temperature. Water under current conditions can be ice or sublimate directly into vapor without staying in a liquid phase.

Around 4 billions of years ago when the planet was young, it appears to have had a thick atmosphere that was warm enough to support oceans of liquid water – a critical ingredient for life.

Just pure speculation, but what if the same processes that degraded the atmosphere of Mars 4 billion years ago also happens to degrade the atmosphere of Earth 4 billion years from now? Of course the Earth will have gone through many climatic changes and perhaps an apocalyptic event or two between now and then, maybe more. The human species will almost certainly cease to exist at that time and will have likely gone through many transformations. It is interesting from an astronomical perspective.

Sadly humans do have 4 billion years here on Earth. Every billion years the Sun gets 10% more luminous (brighter) and delivers more heat to the Earth. Estimates vary but it is thought that human will not be able to survive here for more then about 400 million years and the oceans boil off in about 1 billion years.

The above figure are from memory so I might be off by a billion years or so, lol, but the point is we die off here long before the Sun goes Red Giant.
Quoting 540. Sfloridacat5:

Later this afternoon Arkansas. Louisiana, and S.E. Texas should really get going.


I think a couple of watches will be warranted possibly. Straight line winds and damaging hail could be a problem. Even a slight chance of a tornado, and greater chance of tornados further north.
Quoting 467. txjac:

Has anyone seen sar?
Seems to be MIA?
sar has been located. He got a 100-hour ban (he gave the okay to share this). He originally received an 11-hr ban, and when that expired, he got another 89-hour ban. In addition, all of his historical postings have been removed. He's not certain his ban will be lifted. When/if it is, we'll likely hear from him, but after that...

He has had no damage from the storms, although there has been reported damage to his north, south and east. His weather report from Eufala:

Weather has calmed down here. A tornado did tough down south of Forth Mitchell in Russell County. It sounds like mostly tree and power line damage. A more serious tornado touched down near Abbeville in Henry County, just south of me. It turned over railroad cars on a siding and caused some structural damage in Abbeville. There was also a tornado across the river in Georgia near Ft Gaines with reports of structural damage as well but I haven't heard how bad. Many reports of flash flooding in the area around me but I've only had 0.91." My shields are still holding. :-)

FWIW, I'm with you, sar



I'm signing off for the day - just not in a 'wu' frame of mind. Have a nice day, everyone.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I think a couple of watches will be warranted possibly. Straight line winds and damaging hail could be a problem. Even a slight chance of a tornado, and greater chance of tornados further north.


Yeah, I think it could end up being a bad day across Arkansas.
546. txjac
Quoting 544. LAbonbon:

sar has been located. He got a 100-hour ban (he gave the okay to share this). He originally received an 11-hr ban, and when that expired, he got another 89-hour ban. In addition, all of his historical postings have been removed. He's not certain his ban will be lifted. When/if it is, we'll likely hear from him, but after that...

He has had no damage from the storms, although there has been reported damage to his north, south and east. His weather report from Eufala:

Weather has calmed down here. A tornado did tough down south of Forth Mitchell in Russell County. It sounds like mostly tree and power line damage. A more serious tornado touched down near Abbeville in Henry County, just south of me. It turned over railroad cars on a siding and caused some structural damage in Abbeville. There was also a tornado across the river in Georgia near Ft Gaines with reports of structural damage as well but I haven't heard how bad. Many reports of flash flooding in the area around me but I've only had 0.91." My shields are still holding. :-)

FWIW, I'm with you, sar



I'm signing off for the day - just not in a 'wu' frame of mind. Have a nice day, everyone.


Thank you for reporting this information.
There are just some people on here that are special
The clear slot across Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are going to explode later today. Sun is out and those areas are really heating up right now.
My Kid is with me in the office; lightening, sky black like night, tree limbs blowing a little bit. I told her not worry unless we see a cat, dog, or debris fly past the window.........................................
Quoting 547. Sfloridacat5:

The clear slot across Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are going to explode later today. Sun is out and those areas are really heating up right now.



That's interesting. I'm no expert on tornadogenesis, but that's something that makes sense that I hadn't thought of. The cloudless zone will get all the sun, and convection will take off. Gotcha, thanks.
My area will be under a slight risk for tomorrow. Storms should start popping off right about the time I wake up. Hopefully we will see something decent tomorrow.
East Atlantic sea surface temperatures have cooled even further over the past week. According to a tweet from Eric Blake a few days ago, this is the coolest they have been since 1994.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/MONDAY FROM CNTRL VA SWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 100O TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO MID-LEVELS. AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELLS WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS MAY TEND TO
ORGANIZE INTO LINES. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD PROBABLY
HAVE A LARGE-HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALSO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
Quoting 544. LAbonbon:

sar has been located. He got a 100-hour ban (he gave the okay to share this). He originally received an 11-hr ban, and when that expired, he got another 89-hour ban. In addition, all of his historical postings have been removed. He's not certain his ban will be lifted. When/if it is, we'll likely hear from him, but after that...

He has had no damage from the storms, although there has been reported damage to his north, south and east. His weather report from Eufala:

Weather has calmed down here. A tornado did tough down south of Forth Mitchell in Russell County. It sounds like mostly tree and power line damage. A more serious tornado touched down near Abbeville in Henry County, just south of me. It turned over railroad cars on a siding and caused some structural damage in Abbeville. There was also a tornado across the river in Georgia near Ft Gaines with reports of structural damage as well but I haven't heard how bad. Many reports of flash flooding in the area around me but I've only had 0.91." My shields are still holding. :-)

FWIW, I'm with you, sar



I'm signing off for the day - just not in a 'wu' frame of mind. Have a nice day, everyone.

Dang, that's rough. I hope this ban doesn't wind up permanent, Sar's wisdom can be the only thing keeping the comments section from spiraling out of control at times.
554. 882MB
TORNADO WARNING
FLC073-191730-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0018.150419T1659Z-150419T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1259 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR TALLAHASSEE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLAHASSEE...BRADFORDVILLE...IAMONIA...FOREST MEADOWS PARK...
MOCCASIN GAP...PISGAH CHURCH...MACLAY STATE GARDENS AND KILLEARN
LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 8427 3054 8432 3068 8420 3067 8401
3062 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 228DEG 24KT 3054 8427

$$

15-HARRIGAN

SVRTAE
FLC073-191730-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0027.150419T1655Z-150419T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1255 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1255 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLAHASSEE...KILLEARN ESTATES...BRADFORDVILLE...IAMONIA...FOREST
MEADOWS PARK...MOCCASIN GAP...PISGAH CHURCH...MACLAY STATE
GARDENS...KILLEARN LAKES...LAKE JACKSON AND MACON COMMUNITY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3047 8428 3053 8435 3068 8419 3068 8411
3055 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 239DEG 28KT 3052 8426

$$
Tornado Watch has been extended to the east all the way to the S.E. coast.
Quoting 545. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I think it could end up being a bad day across Arkansas.
Do you think southeast Louisiana will get hammered or just general thunderstorms.
Quoting 553. Huracan94:


Dang, that's rough. I hope this ban doesn't wind up permanent, Sar's wisdom can be the only thing keeping the comments section from spiraling out of control at times.
Anyone know exactly why he was banned.?
559. 882MB
As someone who has received multiple bans as the banned poster I can tell you he wasn't permanently banned..

Don't worry..He'll be back to dispute every post..

Dr. Greg Forbes..
TODAY
Severe thunderstorms in AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, northeast FL as ongoing storms continue eastward. TORCON - 4 south and central GA, SC, FL panhandle. Scattered severe thunderstorms in central and south MO, south IL, south IN, KY, TN, AR, east OK, extreme east TX, TN, MS, LA, AL in afternoon and evening. TORCON - 4 east and south AR, north and west LA; 3 to 4 AL; 3 rest of area

564. 882MB
Quoting 560. GTstormChaserCaleb:




Quoting 561. LargoFl:




Crazy weather ahead for today and tomorrow. Stay safe if you live on the east coast.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Do you think southeast Louisiana will get hammered or just general thunderstorms.


Parts of Louisiana could see some very strong storms later today. I think the higher tornado chances will be across Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
567. jpsb
Quoting 558. hydrus:

Anyone know exactly why he was banned.?

he was very upset that classic is going away, and if I am not mistaken said he was going to find a different weather site as soon as classic went away.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-15 5-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-85 0-853-856-870-
873-876-201100-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COAS TAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
110 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...HAIL AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

GARCIA
wind pretty strong here on the gulf coast around tampa bay..sure must be some storm to our north...forecast for tampa bay has changed around 1pm..storms maybe even hail later this evening..stay safe out there..just hope no tornado's
Man, we just had one of the better lightning events I've seen in Tallahassee, it reminded me more of the July-August sea breeze thunderstorms back home home in the Tampa Bay area. Rainfall intensity and lightning intensity was amazing here, definitely like a summer Florida thunderstorm. Way more lightning than I'm used to seeing with spring cold frontal thunderstorms.

I suspect the gulf waters being well above normal are helping, usually the gulf waters are still cool south of us this time of year, and the deep southerly flow will advect the cooler stable air from the cool shelf waters over us. Not so this time, CAPE was pretty high here ahead of the line despite the overcast conditions, and I think the well above normal water temps definitely helped.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

GAZ149>152-162>164-191815-
CLINCH GA-BRANTLEY GA-PIERCE GA-ATKINSON GA-CHARLTON GA-ECHOLS GA-
WARE GA-
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN
NASSAU...SOUTHEASTERN BACON...SOUTHWESTERN BRANTLEY...EAST CENTRAL
ECHOLS...WESTERN PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...WARE...EASTERN
CLINCH AND NORTHERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 127 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COGDELL TO NEAR FARGO...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSHEAR...FOLKSTON...FARGO...ARGYLE...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...
HOMELAND...RACE POND...BRISTOL...DEENWOOD...HEBARDVILLE...
SUNNYSIDE...PEBBLE HILL...DIXIE UNION...BRAGANZA...MANOR...EMERSON
PARK...JAMESTOWN...FORT MUDGE...BOGGY BAY AND COGDELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3143 8235 3151 8223 3079 8201 3076 8201
3075 8204 3066 8205 3058 8235 3059 8258
3121 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 245DEG 27KT 3117 8272 3062 8255

$$

SANDRIK
Prado dam Fire
This is over North of the 91 and east of the 71 Fwy. Corona to the South and Norco to the East of it.
CalFire
This is over North of my Sister in laws condo, she is in no danger but has a lovely vantage point to view it.
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-0 58-059-064-141-
144-147-200000-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID LEVELS AND A DIFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF STORMS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD AND VOLUSIA DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD
EVENING AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE STRONG...
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY. THE RIP CURRENTS SHOULD BE AT THEIR STRONGEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE. DO NOT SWIM ALONE AND SWIM
NEAR A LIFE GUARD. CHECK WITH LIFE GUARDS CONCERNING SURF
CONDITIONS BEFORE GOING INTO THE SURF.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS WHICH WILL BRING THEM ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AS A RESULT...MARINE WARNINGS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL ALLOW
FOR DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

KELLY/WIMMER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

GAZ149>152-162>164-191815-
CLINCH GA-BRANTLEY GA-PIERCE GA-ATKINSON GA-CHARLTON GA-ECHOLS GA-
WARE GA-
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN
NASSAU...SOUTHEASTERN BACON...SOUTHWESTERN BRANTLEY...EAST CENTRAL
ECHOLS...WESTERN PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...WARE...EASTERN
CLINCH AND NORTHERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 127 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COGDELL TO NEAR FARGO...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSHEAR...FOLKSTON...FARGO...ARGYLE...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...
HOMELAND...RACE POND...BRISTOL...DEENWOOD...HEBARDVILLE...
SUNNYSIDE...PEBBLE HILL...DIXIE UNION...BRAGANZA...MANOR...EMERSON
PARK...JAMESTOWN...FORT MUDGE...BOGGY BAY AND COGDELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3143 8235 3151 8223 3079 8201 3076 8201
3075 8204 3066 8205 3058 8235 3059 8258
3121 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 245DEG 27KT 3117 8272 3062 8255

$$

SANDRIK
Will See Yall Tomorrow. The frontal passage through Tallahassee this afternoon has been pretty tame. Overcast skies, lingering steady drizzle, and some thunder but negligible winds at all at the moment; there were higher gusts this morning from the t-storm outflows to our West. But, the afternoon temps have cooled down which is nice. Hopefully, the rain shield and cooler temps out ahead will keep any severe storms down as the front moves towards Jacksonville and the Northern East Coast of Florida. Everyone stay safe.

Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:

East Atlantic sea surface temperatures have cooled even further over the past week. According to a tweet from Erick Blake a few days ago, this is the coolest they have been since 1994.




It will be a depressing year for tracking, although we know it only takes one. Hopefully the winter will make up for it.
Quoting 576. Drakoen:



It will be a depressing year for tracking, although we know it only takes one. Hopefully the winter will make up for it.
Epac
Quoting 558. hydrus:

Anyone know exactly why he was banned.?
I recall that he said something a few days ago to the effect that he would probably be bailing from WU, at least partly as a result of the decision about terminating Classic.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST
MO...AND WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191743Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OK BY 20Z AND TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN AR. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY
20Z.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW IN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED
FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SCATTERED AGITATED CU HAVE DEVELOPED AS DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND AN ERODING CAP. INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES /7 TO 8 DEG C PER KM/ PER 12Z RAOBS FROM OUN AND FWD
INDICATE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY STORMS AS WELL. WHILE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...A TORNADO OR TWO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY ON WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE DUE TO THE AMBIENT VORTICITY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. THE MCD
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 20Z.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/19/2015
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:

East Atlantic sea surface temperatures have cooled even further over the past week. According to a tweet from Erick Blake a few days ago, this is the coolest they have been since 1994.


I understand that in tropical seasons, most systems originate off the coast of Africa in the form of tropical waves (I can't remember the exact count of how many we avg. per season); however, with that being said there have been seasons where the tropical cyclogenesis have been closer to home.

1909:

Quoting 578. LargoFl:


Oh wow, that squall line is more impressive than earlier.
Quoting 581. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I understand that in tropical seasons, most systems originate off the coast of Africa in the form of tropical waves (I can't remember the exact count of how many we avg. per season); however, with that being said there have been seasons where the tropical cyclogenesis have been closer to home.

1909:


What about the shear from the El nino?
Quoting 583. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh wow, that squall line is more impressive than earlier.
yes im watching this line closely GT,i want to see the next NWS update a lil later today.
The largest city in the region, Antofagasta, received a deluge of 24.4 mm (0.96 inches) in 24 hours%u2014over fourteen years of rain in one day! This video shows incredible flooding in Chanaral, Chile, on March 25, 2015 from the deluge. A better version of this video with sound is available on Facebook.

======

That's just bad planning. They are build right in the middle of a dry creek bed, so you expect damage from a flood.

I don't care where you live, there is no sense in less than an inch of rain killing people or causing that much property damage.

The other disasters are just nature doing it's thing, but this video clip is evidence of terrible planning by man. Gas stations and semis being washed away by an inch of rain? Every road and structure of any importance must be made in the worst possible location for that much debris to be floating by in a dry creek bed.

Why doesn't anyone plan for these things? Hey, news flash, an inch of rain can happen anywhere, nearly any day of the year, and we're to think they didn't plan for this when making roads and zoning laws? This is ridiculous. It would be like if we made all our buildings in the middle of the Mississippi or something.
Watching a show on TWC.
They just blamed Hurricane Charley on the "I4 Death Zone" legend.
They also blame hurricane Donna on the I4 Death Zone.
It's like the Bermuda Triangle of death and destruction but in Florida along I4 because the road construction disturbed graves in the area.

I mean come on. I can't believe TWC is showing such a crazy show.

Looks like the rain's gonna miss me..AGAIN...
Panhandle complainong about too much rain...
We complaining about too little!
FLC065-079-GAC027-275-191830-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0028.150419T1744Z-150419T1830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THOMAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 143 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR BOSTON TO 15 MILES EAST OF WOODVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF BLOWING TREES DOWN IN LEON
COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTICELLO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...BOSTON...PAVO ...COOLIDGE...
GREENVILLE...MORVEN...BARWICK...DIXIE...DILLS...CA PPS...CASA
BLANCO...BLUE SPRINGS...MONTIVILLA...WAUKEENAH...NANKIN...
OAKLAWN...THOMASVILLE MUNICIPAL A/P AND EMPRESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&
more convective building over ne gom

The positive feedbacks of a warming planet include methane hydrates release in the arctic and methane release from a warming tundra.


===

The methane you mention in the arctic has been released as part of an on-going process that has continued for several million years and is in no way caused by the actions of human beings.

A team of European and Russian leftists went there trying to prove it was man's fault, and the only evidence they could find via diving and core samples is that it's been going on non-stop for several million years.

You need to update your sources. This was 100% natural.
593. 882MB




Quoting 587. Sfloridacat5:

Watching a show on TWC.
They just blamed Hurricane Charley on the "I4 Death Zone" legend.
They also blame hurricane Donna on the I4 Death Zone.
It's like the Bermuda Triangle of death and destruction but in Florida along I4 because the road construction disturbed graves in the area.





I was watching that too but i'm not so sure about that legend. I mean, i've been to the I-4 Dead Zone (going from daytona to orlando) and nothing happened.
Here's what the SPC is watching for a possible WW in Oklahoma. Storms forming and dropping down towards central Oklahoma.
Quoting 584. Gearsts:

What about the shear from the El nino?
Well shear definitely has an impact regardless of what type of season. If the Subtropical Jet Stream (STJ) is displaced further south, then that brings wind shear to areas like the GOM and Caribbean. If it is further north, then it will take the prevailing westerlies with it and go around the Bermuda High. Typically, in an El Nino year the (STJ) is displaced further south and the Bermuda High is stronger which brings faster trade winds at the surface.

Effect of El Niño on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited

It is now well-accepted that El Niño reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. Gray (1984) uses physical processes that accompany El Niño to describe reduced hurricane activity. Gray (1984) also finds that of the 54 major hurricanes striking the United States coast during 1900-83, only four occurred during the 16 El Niño years in contrast to 50 making landfall during the 68 non-El Niño years. This is a rate of 0.25 major hurricanes per year during El Niño events and 0.74 during non-El Niño years, almost a three to one ratio. Richards and O'Brien (1996) showed that the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast during El Niño is 21%, while the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during neutral conditions is 46%. However, the data and methodology used in Richards and O'Brien (1996) work are limited.

We reanalyze the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the United States from 1900-1997 for the phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Corrected U.S. hurricane data are used, and tropical storms are not considered in this study. The reanalysis shows that during an El Niño year, the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. is 28%. The reanalysis further determines that the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during the other two phases is larger: 48% during neutral years and 66% during El Viejo. Also, we determine the range of these strike probabilities for El Niño and El Viejo. Strike probabilities of major U.S. hurricanes during each ENSO phase are also considered.
Looking like it's going to get nasty in the SC Lowcountry after dinner time.
Quoting 585. LargoFl:

yes im watching this line closely GT,i want to see the next NWS update a lil later today.
Was the sun out mostly today on the west coast?
Quoting 592. IndividualThinker2:

The positive feedbacks of a warming planet include methane hydrates release in the arctic and methane release from a warming tundra.


===

The methane you mention in the arctic has been released as part of an on-going process that has continued for several million years and is in no way caused by the actions of human beings.

A team of leftists went there trying to prove it was man's fault, and the only evidence they could find via diving and core samples is that it's been going on non-stop for several million years.

You need to update your sources. This was 100% natural.
I shouldn't bite--your referring to research scientists as "a team of leftists" is strong evidence that you're a fan of neither the scientific method or intellectual honesty--but for those reading your words and wondering just what it is you're going on about, perhaps you'll be kind enough to enlighten us with links to the actual study? If not, we'll be left to assume your comments are just another baseless denialist fantasy.

Thanks in advance...
Quoting 595. Sfloridacat5:

Here's what the SPC is watching. Storms forming and dropping down towards central Oklahoma.

They are really taking off too
Quoting 592. IndividualThinker2:

The positive feedbacks of a warming planet include methane hydrates release in the arctic and methane release from a warming tundra.


===

The methane you mention in the arctic has been released as part of an on-going process that has continued for several million years and is in no way caused by the actions of human beings.

A team of European and Russian leftists went there trying to prove it was man's fault, and the only evidence they could find via diving and core samples is that it's been going on non-stop for several million years.

You need to update your sources. This was 100% natural.


Please don't conflate left/right politics with the scientific subject of greenhouse gas induced climate change.

And, no one knows how much methane was released from hydrates in the past.
Conditions don't really look like they would support severe weather in central Oklahoma.

Partly Cloudy 70 degrees
Humidity 47%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 29.75 in (1006.5 mb)
Dewpoint 49F (9C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update on 19 Apr 12:52 pm CDT
Quoting 597. win1gamegiantsplease:

Looking like it's going to get nasty in the SC Lowcountry after dinner time.


there already approaching the state line as I type

Hey guys how is everyone' stay. Hope it's a good one. And I hope everyone is safe for the severe weather. Also my severe weather blog is always open and y can post anything there.
Quoting 602. Sfloridacat5:

Conditions don't really look like they would support severe weather in central Oklahoma.

Partly Cloudy 70 degrees
Humidity 47%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 29.75 in (1006.5 mb)
Dewpoint 49�F (9�C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update on 19 Apr 12:52 pm CDT



Dewpoints are low, moisture and energy is low, but if lapse rates are steep enough it could make up for that.
Compare with Shreveport, Louisiana

Seems like a lot better conditions for severe weather.

A Few Clouds
74°F
23°C
Humidity 67%
Wind Speed SW 12 G 18 mph
Barometer 29.74 in (1006.9 mb)
Dewpoint 62°F (17°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update on 19 Apr 12:53 pm CDT
Quoting 588. JrWeathermanFL:

Looks like the rain's gonna miss me..AGAIN...
Panhandle complainong about too much rain...
We complaining about too little!


Where do you live? I got nailed in Tallahassee, severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings, reports of down trees in the county, and we had a crazy amount of heavy rain and intense lightning.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I understand that in tropical seasons, most systems originate off the coast of Africa in the form of tropical waves (I can't remember the exact count of how many we avg. per season); however, with that being said there have been seasons where the tropical cyclogenesis have been closer to home.

1909:



Oh god if another 1909 season was to happen this year Cayman would get it bad not like ivan bad but like multiple Gustav/Paloma/Dean bad

Anyway talking about tropical systems GFS recent run shows EPac first storm at end of run but it also shows a weak storm maybe TD or invest N or PR at end of run as well

CFS continues to show signs of tropical development in the NW Carib/Bahamas/Florida area between 4 May and 16 may
Lowering pressures and increased rain in these particular areas

Anyway these are in long term timing best to wait till we get out of April and into May before we start looking on the models

Certainly starting to get ready for storm season 2015
It would be an interesting season
As I stated earlier this year I think this season will start active then die down as we get into middle and end of season or visa versa depending on how this El Niño turns out

And that most of the activity would be in the NW Caribbean GOM Bahamas and US East coast
Quoting 550. Storms306:

My area will be under a slight risk for tomorrow. Storms should start popping off right about the time I wake up. Hopefully we will see something decent tomorrow.
2012 put the nail in the coffin for me when it came to dealing with server storms because none of the thunderstorms were normal.....So I'm perfectly fine with less server weather each summer..Although I know we can't escape the threat here during the late spring through summer and early fall....
Quoting 608. wunderkidcayman:



Oh god if another 1909 season was to happen this year Cayman would get it bad not like ivan bad but like multiple Gustav/Paloma/Dean bad

Anyway talking about tropical systems GFS recent run shows EPac first storm at end of run but it also shows a weak storm maybe TD or invest N or PR at end of run as well

CFS continues to show signs of tropical development in the NW Carib/Bahamas/Florida area between 4 May and 16 may
Lowering pressures and increased rain in these particular areas

Anyway these are in long term timing best to wait till we get out of April and into May before we start looking on the models

Certainly starting to get ready for storm season 2015
It would be an interesting season
As I stated earlier this year I think this season will start active then die down as we get into middle and end of season or visa versa depending on how this El Niño turns out

And that most of the activity would be in the NW Caribbean GOM Bahamas and US East coast
lol
Quoting Jedkins01:


Dewpoints are low, moisture and energy is low, but if lapse rates are steep enough it could make up for that.


Looks like the upper level low is diving down into central Oklahoma right now.

Link

Quick Links (right side of page) - Southern Plains Visible Loop
612. 882MB
Quoting 602. Sfloridacat5:

Conditions don't really look like they would support severe weather in central Oklahoma.

Partly Cloudy 70 degrees
Humidity 47%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 29.75 in (1006.5 mb)
Dewpoint 49%uFFFDF (9%uFFFDC)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update on 19 Apr 12:52 pm CDT



I think it will be more of an issue towards the arklatex, especially Arkansas, and NE Mississippi. Where dewpoint's are higher, and there's more instability.

Quoting 583. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh wow, that squall line is more impressive than earlier.


This line of thunderstorms is much more like a Florida summer thunderstorm thanks to the high dewpoints in the 70's, the high CAPE, and the tapping of the well above normal gulf waters. We had an awesome lightning show here and a lot of rain, now it's just steady moderate rain and still some occasional cloud lightning behind the squall line.

The NWS in Ruskin has mentioned that this line may have enough convergence to live on into Central Florida this evening before the cold front arrives with the expected rains tomorrow down there. Hopefully it will make into the west coast of Florida as it has been terribly dry lately, and any bonus rains in addition to the expected activity arriving tomorrow would be nice.

My parents have recorded 0.00 so far for April near Clearwater, and this is representative of most other west coast of FL locations for April, add that to the March only being 30-40% of average rainfall and it's getting crunchy dry down there, my parents said their nice thick green lawn from all the rain early in the year going into March is now is mostly dead.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC067-079-123-GAC027-185-275-191915-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0029.150419T1815Z-150419T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MADISON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
TAYLOR COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 215 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES EAST OF PAVO TO 29 MILES WEST OF STEINHATCHEE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUITMAN...PERRY...VALDOSTA...MADISON...LAKE PARK...HAHIRA...I-75 AT
EXIT 16...MOODY AIR FORCE BASE...REMERTON...DASHER...GREENVILLE...
MORVEN...LEE...DIXIE...ECONFINA...SMITH...ERIDU... TOWNSEND...BLUE
SPRINGS AND NANKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3063 8318 3063 8328 3047 8322 2971 8341
2969 8348 2992 8368 3007 8397 3025 8391
3032 8379 3043 8372 3052 8373 3058 8360
3065 8361 3066 8375 3103 8361 3103 8320
3095 8318 3095 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 253DEG 24KT 3093 8363 2970 8388

$$

42-DVD
Line really holding together,maybe even getting a bit stronger out there...
Quoting 601. yonzabam:



Please don't conflate left/right politics with the scientific subject of greenhouse gas induced climate change.

And, no one knows how much methane was released from hydrates in the past.



Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon. They can tell from sub-oceanic soil sampling, carbonated rocks, ecosystems based on the metabolism of methane (similar to Sulphur and mid-ocean ridges,) and other methods, GPR and such.

I wouldn't worry about it myself.

It's a planetary regulating mechanism. If the temperature gets too high or low there is something, somewhere that fixes it, to some extent, and the actions of man are miniscule compared to these geologic formations that span entire ocean basins and have been happening for millions of years..

Quoting LargoFl:


Yeah, I think the storms might fire across Oklahoma, but they'll really get going once they move a little further to the east and south.
Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:




Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon. They can tell from sub-oceanic soil sampling, carbonated rocks, ecosystems based on the metabolism of methane (similar to Sulphur and mid-ocean ridges,) and other methods, GPR and such.

I wouldn't worry about it myself.

It's a planetary regulating mechanism. If the temperature gets too high or low there is something, somewhere that fixes it, to some extent, and the actions of man are miniscule compared to these geologic formations that span entire ocean basins and have been happening for millions of years..




Twaddle.
Quoting 618. yonzabam:



Twaddle.


But he's an "Individual Thinker"! ... It's always a tell tale sign when the user name is a baseless appeal to individualism and false authority. Yawn, 2/10 for the troll effort. Especially the use of leftist in the first post. I hope the mods clear this one out quickly.
Quoting 609. washingtonian115:

2012 put the nail in the coffin for me when it came to dealing with server storms because none of the thunderstorms were normal.....So I'm perfectly fine with less server weather each summer..Although I know we can't escape the threat here during the late spring through summer and early fall....
Whatcha mean by normal Washi? Me personally, i enjoy watching the storms form and seeing how powerful they can be. I enjoy all types of extreme weather, but then again what 22 y/o adrenaline junky doesn't?lol
HRRR has been pretty consistent with storms breaking out across eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas and then down in S.E. Texas into Louisiana.
Those storms down in Louisiana look pretty strong.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AR...WESTERN LA...EAST TX INCLUDING THE
UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191852Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AND WESTERN LA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/SABINE VALLEY...WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD
AREA TO THE LOW 60S FURTHER NORTH. 18Z MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST RAP
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SHOULD ERODE BY AROUND 20-21Z. ONCE THIS OCCURS...STRONG SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT AS STRONG AS
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...DCAPE VALUES AOA 1200 J/KG AND SOME DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR
COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW...MODEST LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH THE SHV VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 0-1KM SRH NEAR 100
M2/S2. AS SUCH...ANY STORM THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE COULD POSE A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/19/2015
Quoting 619. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I sure could use the rain here in my area keeper
come on, you can do it, keep coming this way..we need that rain you have....
Quoting 622. jpsb:


What a brilliant rebuttal! You should be proud. /not


Rebuttal to what? The poster provided no evidence to support any assertion made. There was literally nothing to rebut. Is that what passes for quality information in your world?
Quoting 626. LargoFl:

come on, you can do it, keep coming this way..we need that rain you have....


If this manages to hold together into your area, it would be "bonus" rains in addition to the expected activity tomorrow, which would be nice. Your area has pretty impressive surface CAPE, so I wouldn't be surprised if it holds together.
Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:




Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon. They can tell from sub-oceanic soil sampling, carbonated rocks, ecosystems based on the metabolism of methane (similar to Sulphur and mid-ocean ridges,) and other methods, GPR and such.

I wouldn't worry about it myself.

It's a planetary regulating mechanism. If the temperature gets too high or low there is something, somewhere that fixes it, to some extent, and the actions of man are miniscule compared to these geologic formations that span entire ocean basins and have been happening for millions of years..




Earth has been much hotter in the past (probably too hot for human civilization as we know it). Earth has been much colder in the past (probably too cold for human civilization as we know it). Atmospheric CO2 concentration has been a main factor in changes in global average temperature. Rapid change in climate has been detrimental to some flora and fauna in the past.
Quoting 628. Jedkins01:



If this manages to hold together into your area, it would be "bonus" rains in addition to the expected activity tomorrow, which would be nice. Your area has pretty impressive surface CAPE, so I wouldn't be surprised if it holds together.
oh I hope so jedkins really warm and dry here
it IS growing,bumping up against this moist hot air ........................................

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER CENTRAL OK
BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES EAST OF RUSSELLVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
Dr. Greg Forbes
28 mins ·

I'm at The Weather Channel and have just done a cut-in for the severe storms ongoing in the Southeast. Alexandra Steele and I will continue to do cut-ins until 4PM when TWC will be going live through at least midnight EDT. I'll be on air several times per hour during this period.
WSB says that thousands of people are without power in Cobb County, Georgia:


Early reports aren't detailed, but there has been structural damage to a building in Russell County, Alabama because of a possible tornado. In Abbeville, Alabama, power lines are down and a possible tornado overturned train cars near the highway.

Winds have knocked down trees in other parts of the state. In southern Alabama, at least 5,000 people have lost power, according to Alabama Power.
Quoting 631. LargoFl:

oh I hope so jedkins really warm and dry here


Yeah my parents where I live when I'm not at school is not far from you and have had 0.00 so far for April in the gauge there, literally no rain for April, and were well below in March too, so its been really dry over the past 6-7 weeks down there. Hopefully the event tomorrow will bring some really heavy rains.
Quoting 630. DCSwithunderscores:



Earth has been much hotter in the past (probably too hot for human civilization as we know it). Earth has been much colder in the past (probably too cold for human civilization as we know it). Atmospheric CO2 concentration has been a main factor in changes in global average temperature. Rapid change in climate has been detrimental to some flora and fauna in the past.


50 million years ago, it's believed Earth was 14 C warmer than today.

Venus has an average temperature of 460 C, due to a runaway greenhouse effect involving water vapour.
639. vis0
Stay tuned to NOAA radio / local reportsfor any watches & WARNINGS

A BB news tidbit might be:: Norway Will Be the First Country to Turn Off FM Radio in 2017

Stay tuned to NOAA radio for any watches & WARNINGS

640. 882MB
Can someone please answer me this ?. If I change my email address in wunderground to my new 1, will it send a message to my old email saying I changed it. Sorry I'm asking, its because I think someone got into my yahoo account, and I want to put my new email address from google. I know it sound funny, but I just want to make sure. Thanks :)
Quoting 607. Jedkins01:



Where do you live? I got nailed in Tallahassee, severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings, reports of down trees in the county, and we had a crazy amount of heavy rain and intense lightning.



Ditto that! NW Tallahassee here, 2-3 inches here, judging by my pool level! Some very strong gusts earlier and notable wind shifts from the rain direction. Lots of cloud to ground lightening, but just a steady rain now, with a few distant claps of thinder.
SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER CENTRAL OK
BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES EAST OF RUSSELLVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART


Some severe weather damage in the Tallahassee area from the squall line earlier.

Link
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
303 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FLZ021-022-030-031-035-036-040-192000-
ALACHUA FL-MARION FL-BRADFORD FL-GILCHRIST FL-UNION FL-COLUMBIA FL-
SUWANNEE FL-
303 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLUMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN BAKER...
NORTHWESTERN MARION...WESTERN BRADFORD...WESTERN ALACHUA...
GILCHRIST...WESTERN UNION AND SOUTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 303 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LURAVILLE TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRING TO NEAR FOWLERS BLUFF...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...LAKE CITY...TRENTON...BELL...WORTHINGTON SPRING...
ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...COLUMBIA...ALACHUA...HIGH SPRINGS...ARCHER...
FORT WHITE...WORTHINGTON SPRINGS...WELLBORN...GROVES...LURAVILLE...
UPLAND PINES...WINFIELD...PALESTINE COMMUNITY...PROVIDENCE AND
OBRIEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3032 8246 3014 8246 3014 8240 2945 8234
2945 8241 2948 8241 2948 8255 2954 8256
2953 8265 2956 8266 2958 8295 2962 8297
2975 8294 2976 8295 2989 8288 2989 8292
2996 8293 3008 8307 3012 8323 3014 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 250DEG 27KT 3013 8316 2989 8289 2944 8300

$$

ENYEDI
Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:

Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon. They can tell from sub-oceanic soil sampling, carbonated rocks, ecosystems based on the metabolism of methane (similar to Sulphur and mid-ocean ridges,) and other methods, GPR and such.

I wouldn't worry about it myself.

It's a planetary regulating mechanism. If the temperature gets too high or low there is something, somewhere that fixes it, to some extent, and the actions of man are miniscule compared to these geologic formations that span entire ocean basins and have been happening for millions of years..


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
The big picture with all the Watches.
652. vis0
Man this SE front is "negative TILT  whipping".
You know what's funny? I just posted the exact comment that's at 347 in another blog from classic, and in the classic view of the comments, the image at 347 appears automatically sized to ~400 in height itself instead of being, like it is here in nu wu - biggggg.
The atmosphere is really starting to fire now across eastern Oklahoma.
655. beell
Quoting 653. Barefootontherocks:

You know what's funny? I just posted the exact comment that's at 347 in another blog from classic, and in the classic view of the comments, the image at 347 appears automatically sized to ~400 in height itself instead of being, like it is here in nu wu - biggggg.


A page refresh on your end should bring it down to the size that the rest of us see, bf.
I fail to see how the rain can miss me this time...
But I'm sure it'll find a way
Quoting 653. Barefootontherocks:

You know what's funny? I just posted the exact comment that's at 347 in another blog from classic, and in the classic view of the comments, the image at 347 appears automatically sized to ~400 in height itself instead of being, like it is here in nu wu - biggggg.
I've noticed in NU WU that images are not resized for "Preview Comment" or after "Modify Comment" > "Submit". They do resize after "Post Comment" or a Reload after "Modify Comment" > "Submit".
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-192230-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
331 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NOW...


SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF
ORLANDO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE
WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED AT THE COAST AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONGER STORMS OVER LAKE...
VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ONE OR
TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL.


Antarctic ice is now melting faster than ever, raising sea levels. But the degree of risk to our coastline and economy is still a big unknown.

On Tuesday, April 21, I will deliver a lecture at the Royal Society in London describing remarkable progress in what we do know about Antarctica and its contribution to sea-level change. Thanks to international efforts coordinated by NASA and the European Space Agency we now know, for the first time in history and with great confidence, that the grounded ice of Antarctica is flowing into the ocean faster than snowfall replenishes it, hence raising sea levels. That imbalance is now 130 billion tonnes of ice each year.

And we know that this change is happening faster and faster – in both West Antarctica and Greenland. The big grounded ice sheets are now contributing to sea-level rises at double the rate they were in the 1990s. These changes have been observed in different ways, using different data, by different groups in different countries and the result is not disputed.


Link
The first severe thunderstorm warning of the day for the western system.


komonews-com-weather Published: Apr 19, 2015 at 8:34 AM PDT Seattle, WA
Smoke from Siberian wildfires turns Northwestern sunsets a fiery red


“The Dry Land Burned Like Grass” — Siberia’s Road to a Permaburn Hell

Link
FLC003-023-047-121-GAC049-065-101-299-192030-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0028.150419T2000Z-150419T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
BAKER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN ECHOLS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
WESTERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 359 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF JASPER TO NEAR WHITE SPRINGS TO NEAR COLUMBIA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...JASPER...WHITE SPRINGS...FARGO...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE
PARK...TAYLOR...MACCLENNY...GLEN ST. MARY...WELLBORN...SANDERSON...
BELMONT...WINFIELD...SUWANNEE VALLEY...FIVE POINTS...WATERTOWN...
NEEDMORE AND OLUSTEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&
Russian Ecologists Warn Summer Could See Repeat of Devastating 2010 Wildfires – or Worse

With fires already raging across parts of Siberia, Russia can expect “catastrophic” wildfires as bad as or worse than those that devastated parts of the country in summer 2010, some environmental experts say.

A mild winter with little snowfall, the early onset of spring with Moscow recording its warmest Easter in over a decade, the aftermath of last year’s drought in European Russia and shortfalls in wildfire prevention in the country paint a bleak picture.

“All of Russia’s regions are at a higher than average risk of wildfire outbreaks this year,” Greenpeace forestry expert Alexei Yaroshenko said, with “guaranteed” fires in Siberia and the Far East.


Link
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

GAZ132-134-149>152-163-192045-
CLINCH GA-BRANTLEY GA-BACON GA-PIERCE GA-ATKINSON GA-WARE GA-
COFFEE GA-
406 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BACON...WEST CENTRAL
BRANTLEY...WESTERN PIERCE...EAST CENTRAL ATKINSON...NORTHERN WARE...
NORTHERN CLINCH AND SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DIXIE UNION...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARGYLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...BLACKSHEAR...ARGYLE...DEENWOOD...HEBARDVIL LE...SUNNYSIDE...
PEBBLE HILL...DIXIE UNION...MANOR...EMERSON PARK...JAMESTOWN...BOGGY
BAY...WARESBORO...BICKLEY...NEW LACY...NEEDHAM AND MILLWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3159 8233 3118 8220 3107 8269 3145 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 241DEG 32KT 3124 8253

$$

GUILLET
Quoting 659. ColoradoBob1:



Antarctic ice is now melting faster than ever, raising sea levels. But the degree of risk to our coastline and economy is still a big unknown.

On Tuesday, April 21, I will deliver a lecture at the Royal Society in London describing remarkable progress in what we do know about Antarctica and its contribution to sea-level change. Thanks to international efforts coordinated by NASA and the European Space Agency we now know, for the first time in history and with great confidence, that the grounded ice of Antarctica is flowing into the ocean faster than snowfall replenishes it, hence raising sea levels. That imbalance is now 130 billion tonnes of ice each year.

And we know that this change is happening faster and faster – in both West Antarctica and Greenland. The big grounded ice sheets are now contributing to sea-level rises at double the rate they were in the 1990s. These changes have been observed in different ways, using different data, by different groups in different countries and the result is not disputed.


Link


it will always be faster and faster
like a snowball rolling down a hillside
except this hill there is no bottom
only open water
Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN 16 minutes ago
Watching this area of new storms SW of Fort Smith, AR! could pose enhanced hail, tornado threat W AR @breakingweather
So I'm looking for my 80th prediction.
I'll take anyone ready

The Hurricane chart is about 40 days to close up
Quoting 661. ColoradoBob1:

...Smoke from Siberian wildfires turns Northwestern sunsets a fiery red...
And that smoke will undoubtedly add to the soot deposits on the Greenland ice sheet as well as on the Arctic sea ice, just as the Sun returns to those areas -- a recipe for an increase in rapidity of melting. And of course the enhanced melting of Siberian permafrost and addition of the sequestered methane won't help either.
Quoting 661. ColoradoBob1:



komonews-com-weather Published: Apr 19, 2015 at 8:34 AM PDT Seattle, WA
Smoke from Siberian wildfires turns Northwestern sunsets a fiery red


“The Dry Land Burned Like Grass” — Siberia’s Road to a Permaburn Hell

Link



Several smoky fires burned in Zabaikalsky Territory on April 14, 2015, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this image. The fires are outlined in red. Several dark burn scars are visible through the smoke.


Link
Quoting 665. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



it will always be faster and faster
like a snowball rolling down a hillside
except this hill there is no bottom
only open water


With several unplanned stops when "Hell comes to breakfast".

Savannah under a severe t-storm warning, straight line winds will be the main concern.
Quoting 668. CaneFreeCR:

And that smoke will undoubtedly add to the soot deposits on the Greenland ice sheet as well as on the Arctic sea ice, just as the Sun returns to those areas -- a recipe for an increase in rapidity of melting. And of course the enhanced melting of Siberian permafrost and addition of the sequestered methane won't help either.


And the snow pack in Western North America.
UKMET Bay of Campeche dreaming......

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.04.2015
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 20.0N 96.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.04.2015 144 20.7N 98.0W 1004 18


Link
bubbling over in SC

Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:




Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon. They can tell from sub-oceanic soil sampling, carbonated rocks, ecosystems based on the metabolism of methane (similar to Sulphur and mid-ocean ridges,) and other methods, GPR and such.

I wouldn't worry about it myself.

It's a planetary regulating mechanism. If the temperature gets too high or low there is something, somewhere that fixes it, to some extent, and the actions of man are miniscule compared to these geologic formations that span entire ocean basins and have been happening for millions of years..




Ahh the "Puny Humans Theory" ............

We filled the oceans with plastic trash.
We raised the acid level in them by 30% in less than 200 years.
We killed Ariel Sea.
We stopped the Colorado River from reaching the Sea of Cortez.
We ate an entire mountain in Colorado for moly for our steel.
We removed tops of mountains in West Virgina for coal.
We plowed up 96% of the tall grass prairie in North America, and cut down just as many virgin forests .
We shot 50 million bison one bullet at a time, in 12 years.

Yep 7.2 Billion people have no effect at all.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 438 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SALT SPRINGS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESCENT CITY...POMONA PARK...ANDALUSIA...SALT SPRINGS...
FRUITLAND...SAN MATEO...SATSUMA...LAKE DELANCY...WELAKA...LAKE COMO
AND GEORGETOWN.
677. jpsb
Quoting 659. ColoradoBob1:



Antarctic ice is now melting faster than ever, raising sea levels. But the degree of risk to our coastline and economy is still a big unknown.

On Tuesday, April 21, I will deliver a lecture at the Royal Society in London describing remarkable progress in what we do know about Antarctica and its contribution to sea-level change. Thanks to international efforts coordinated by NASA and the European Space Agency we now know, for the first time in history and with great confidence, that the grounded ice of Antarctica is flowing into the ocean faster than snowfall replenishes it, hence raising sea levels. That imbalance is now 130 billion tonnes of ice each year.

And we know that this change is happening faster and faster %u2013 in both West Antarctica and Greenland. The big grounded ice sheets are now contributing to sea-level rises at double the rate they were in the 1990s. These changes have been observed in different ways, using different data, by different groups in different countries and the result is not disputed.


Link


The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



I wish people would get their facts straight.
Heads up Tampa Bay and west coast of FL.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20
NM...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS
OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL...LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
NM WEST OF CEDAR KEY TO 66 NM WEST OF INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNEDIN...ANCLOTE KEY...PASS-A-GRILLE REEF...CLEARWATER BEACH...
TREASURE ISLAND REEF...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...TARPON SPRINGS...CEDAR
KEY...MADEIRA BEACH REEF...JOHNS PASS...SAINT PETE BEACH REEF...
INDIAN SHORE REEF...CLEARWATER PASS...PORT RICHEY AND YANKEETOWN.
Quoting 677. jpsb:



The grounded ice of Greenland is not following into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



I wish people would get their facts straight.


and that bowl has numerous cracks to the oceans .. which drains that bowl ..
Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:

Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon.

As someone who has followed this , I'll need you to hack up the papers. That support this fur ball.
http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNI DS_map?station=TBW&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N 0R&frame=0&scale=0.5&noclutter=0&showstorms=5&mapx =400&mapy=240¢erx=524¢ery=230&transx=124&t ransy=-10&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightni ng=Show&smooth=0&rand=23824612&lat=0&lon=0&label=y ou
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
433 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FLZ045-144-192115-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
433 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

AT 431 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HORIZON WEST TO NEAR
FOUR CORNERS TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHAMPIONS GATE...AND MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DISNEY AND ATTRACTIONS AREAS...
ORLANDO...OCOEE...WINTER GARDEN...WINTER PARK AND MAITLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2851 8170 2864 8139 2864 8133 2861 8133
2861 8132 2836 8130 2835 8136 2835 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 251DEG 34KT 2847 8165 2836 8167 2832 8172

$$

CRISTALDI
Quoting 679. whitewabit:



and that bowl has numerous cracks to the oceans .. which drains that bowl ..


also all the melt water goes into the bowl as it seeps down into the ice
in that big bowl then not only does it melt from above but below as well
and that in turn adds more water which pushes up the ice and lifts it up and out
with less grab too the land
Quoting 677. jpsb:



The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



I wish people would get their facts straight.


Yeah I wish people would get their facts straight too. Here is one of MANY papers that discuss Greenland's outlet glaciers that melt into the ocean and their contribution to sea level rise.



some of the glaciers have tongues sticking into the water and we are finding that when the ice retracts it pass a point that is then much lower the ocean level allowing warmer ocean water under the ice melting it faster ..
Stay classy, rattlesnake76.
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
456 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

GMZ850-853-870-873-192130-
/O.CON.KTBW.MA.W.0016.000000T0000Z-150419T2130Z/
456 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

AT 456 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER AND SMALL HAIL...LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANCLOTE KEY TO 46 NM WEST OF EGMONT KEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 KNOTS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNEDIN...ANCLOTE KEY...PASS-A-GRILLE REEF...CLEARWATER BEACH...
TREASURE ISLAND REEF...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...TARPON SPRINGS...MADEIRA
BEACH REEF...JOHNS PASS...SAINT PETE BEACH REEF...INDIAN SHORE
REEF...CLEARWATER PASS...PORT RICHEY AND YANKEETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8379 2907 8281 2889 8264 2882 8263
2887 8265 2885 8272 2880 8263 2878 8269
2859 8264 2790 8284 2791 8285 2774 8276
2722 8358 2784 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 225DEG 50KT 2842 8315 2748 8363

$$

RAG
Quoting 677. jpsb:



The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



I wish people would get their facts straight.


The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean ???

The worlds fastest glacier is on the West Coast of Greenland. And there is growing evidence that warm sea water is melting the bottom of that glacier, and countless others. Allowing them to leave their old grounding lines (brakes), and rush into the sea.

I wish you had even a clue about any of this.
Quoting 592. IndividualThinker2:

The positive feedbacks of a warming planet include methane hydrates release in the arctic and methane release from a warming tundra.


===

The methane you mention in the arctic has been released as part of an on-going process that has continued for several million years and is in no way caused by the actions of human beings.

A team of European and Russian leftists went there trying to prove it was man's fault, and the only evidence they could find via diving and core samples is that it's been going on non-stop for several million years.

You need to update your sources. This was 100% natural.


Funny. I tend to stay pretty well informed in regards to climate research, and the peer reviewed articles I've read on the subject in regards to methane clathrates says pretty much exactly the opposite of what you claim. Methane emissions have been increasing in the arctic regions, and the shallower ocean clathrates have been melting at increasing rates due to general oceanic warming in the region brought on in part by the rapidly disappearing arctic sea ice.

Do you have any links to the paper or papers your referring to? And I do mean papers, not nutter sites like WUWT.
Tornado watch extended into Brunswick Bladen and Columbus Counties, NC
Quoting 677. jpsb:



The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



I wish people would get their facts straight.
I guess the Jakobshavn Glacier and others up there didn't get the memo.
Quoting 678. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Heads up Tampa Bay and west coast of FL.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20
NM...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS
OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL...LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
NM WEST OF CEDAR KEY TO 66 NM WEST OF INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNEDIN...ANCLOTE KEY...PASS-A-GRILLE REEF...CLEARWATER BEACH...
TREASURE ISLAND REEF...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...TARPON SPRINGS...CEDAR
KEY...MADEIRA BEACH REEF...JOHNS PASS...SAINT PETE BEACH REEF...
INDIAN SHORE REEF...CLEARWATER PASS...PORT RICHEY AND YANKEETOWN.


Moving 40-45mph

695. jpsb
Quoting 679. whitewabit:



and that bowl has numerous cracks to the oceans .. which drains that bowl ..

Yes but that is not what the article said. The article said the ice was flowing into the ocean faster and faster.

An ice flow has a particular meaning in science. I understand it's a minor point but I like things nice and neat and correct.
Quoting 678. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Heads up Tampa Bay and west coast of FL.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20
NM...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS
OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL...LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
NM WEST OF CEDAR KEY TO 66 NM WEST OF INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNEDIN...ANCLOTE KEY...PASS-A-GRILLE REEF...CLEARWATER BEACH...
TREASURE ISLAND REEF...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...TARPON SPRINGS...CEDAR
KEY...MADEIRA BEACH REEF...JOHNS PASS...SAINT PETE BEACH REEF...
INDIAN SHORE REEF...CLEARWATER PASS...PORT RICHEY AND YANKEETOWN.


The cells look to be restrengthening actually despite that upper level energy is departing. Local forecasters had rain chances at only 20% for the Tampa Bay area today is this line was expected to fall apart as it has moved far away from it's energy source with the cold front still well to the north west and the upper support departing.

However, strong inflow winds from the south and southeast flow giving surface convergence along with high surface CAPE >2000 J/kg is allowing for this to hold together.

I think the problem is forecasters are used to lower instability from cooler shelf waters near the eastern gulf coast in the spring, but water temps are well above normal in this area so it's allowing for higher CAPE.

Now, the line may still weaken, but it's already way outlived it's expectancy in progression eastward, and may still hold together into the Tampa Bay area. If water temps were what they normally are this time of year, with the departing upper support this line would probably have been completely dissipated by now.
Quoting 695. jpsb:


Yes but that is not what the article said. The article said the ice was flowing into the ocean faster and faster.

An ice flow has a particular meaning in science. I understand it's a minor point but I like things nice and neat and correct.
And your doctoral degree in glaciology is from what university?
Quoting 695. jpsb:


Yes but that is not what the article said. The article said the ice was flowing into the ocean faster and faster.

An ice flow has a particular meaning in science. I understand it's a minor point but I like things nice and neat and correct.


it is because of the warming temperature over the ice cap .. it doesn't just set where it has melted water seeks the lowest point .. it acts a lubricant under the ice ..

and science is not nice and neat it is forever changing as we learn more and more ..
699. jpsb
Quoting 693. CaneFreeCR:

I guess the Jakobshavn Glacier and others up there didn't get the memo.


You do realize that there is a difference between a glacier and an ice sheet?

from wiki

A glacier (US /ˈɡleɪʃər/ or UK /ˈɡlæsiə/) is a persistent body of dense ice that is constantly moving under its own weight;

An ice sheet is a mass of glacier ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 km2 (19,000 sq mi)

The article specifically said the big grounded ice sheets.



Quoting 677. jpsb:



The grounded ice of Greenland is not following into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



I wish people would get their facts straight.
Quoting 695. jpsb:


Yes but that is not what the article said. The article said the ice was flowing into the ocean faster and faster.

An ice flow has a particular meaning in science. I understand it's a minor point but I like things nice and neat and correct.
Ice is flowing into the ocean and then melting AND ice is melting and then flowing into the ocean. While you are so occupied with being pedantic your shoes are getting wet.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 512 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE NONA...OR NEAR ORLANDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...WEDGEFIELD...LAKE NONA...CHRISTMAS AND AVALON PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8136 2861 8101 2861 8097 2860 8095
2856 8093 2853 8094 2853 8093 2851 8091
2851 8088 2847 8087 2847 8090 2845 8090
2845 8089 2841 8089 2835 8116 2835 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 250DEG 23KT 2838 8128

$$
Quoting 695. jpsb:


Yes but that is not what the article said. The article said the ice was flowing into the ocean faster and faster.

An ice flow has a particular meaning in science. I understand it's a minor point but I like things nice and neat and correct.


From your link:

"
Exploring Ice

After a long winter count, winter after winter after winter, the ice grew as tall as a
palace, six-stories tall, atop the mountain in Greenland. At that moment the snow, the firn, the deep crystal clear ice
wakened to become a glacier and it started to move.
The top tipped like the leading edge of a great flood. The middle layers followed behind, and
slowly, ever so slowly, the glacier began to creep down the
mountain, carving out a valley that meandered like a slowly
moving river, down to the sea. Where the mountain slope was
steep the glacier would glide along, scraping the land and rolling over rocks and debris. In some places along the way
,the ground was frozen beneath and it held the glacier slow.
In some places, the pressure would build so greatly at the base, that the ice would melt,
and suddenly start the glacier sliding. Sometimes, an ice stream would form, and the glacier would surge like a rising surf ,at twice the normal pace.

As the glacier flowed down through the valley, it scraped the ground and the sides of the
mountain and it moved rocks, boulders, dust, and dirt. And when it reached the ocean, like
a thirsty giant, a glacial tongue of ice extended out into the sea. Sometimes icebergs would"

I've bloded that important parts that talk about ice flows on Greenland doubling in speed. Do you bother to read what you post?
line sure doesn't look like its weakening any..should be over me in a few hours................
Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:




Several scientific papers were written on the issue after the so-called "torch" phenomenon was discovered. Underwater surveys showed it had in fact been a multi-million year phenomenon.


This is a BS statement unless you can provide links to the actual papers. Every research article I've read on the subject says nothing of the sort. Clathrates do melt and reform on their own, but there is a large body of evidence that there is a lot more melting and a lot less reforming as a direct result of climate change.

Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:
They can tell from sub-oceanic soil sampling, carbonated rocks, ecosystems based on the metabolism of methane (similar to Sulphur and mid-ocean ridges,) and other methods, GPR and such.

I wouldn't worry about it myself.


I don't see why you would. People lie to themselves all the time to make themselves feel better.

Quoting 616. IndividualThinker2:

It's a planetary regulating mechanism. If the temperature gets too high or low there is something, somewhere that fixes it, to some extent, and the actions of man are miniscule compared to these geologic formations that span entire ocean basins and have been happening for millions of years..




Something "fixes" it? Are you serious? What exactly are you suggesting here? That there are some magical fairies out there that come out and just cast spells to make everything right as rain?

It's physics. In this case, thermodynamics. If a system is in equilibrium and you add energy to it, that system destabilizes until it can reach a new state state of equilibrium. Nothing "gets fixed" in this process. In fact, history indicates that when this happens it causes holy hell and kills some large percentage of life on the planet.

And it takes surprisingly little to alter the state of the climate system. A couple of degrees Clesius globally is the difference between sweltering, snowball, and "just right". Thanks to feedbacks in the system you don't even need to do it all yourself. Just push it until a tipping point and the feedbacks do the rest.

As for geological timescales, the last time CO2 levels were this high it did take thousands of years to happen. We did it in 100. Yay us.

Your "miniscule" statement is also ridiculous. After all, the Ebola virus is absolutely insignificant when compared to a human, but it still does a pretty damn good job of wrecking them.
Quoting 677. jpsb:
I will give you credit that you found the most important map about Greenland.

Please note the 5 low spots , in the wall around the "island", into that bowl in the middle. That bowl is very very deep.

And at the Summit "A" station , the ice is over 10, 000 feet above sea level .

Now see, that gap on the Southwest coast ? That is the Jakobshavn, it is the one that birthed the ice berg that killed the Titanic.

Jakobshavn Glacier the World's Fastest, Picking-up Speed
By Colorado Bob

Tue Jul 10, 2007 7:09 AM




I've always been a fan of Nova, and Robert Kurlwich, so I was watching 2 years ago when this Nova Science Now program first aired on the Jakobshavn Glacier. Kurlwich introduces the story by doing a little glacier 101 speed report. The clip is here and it's 7 min. long .
World's Fastest Glacier

In the story , they report that around the year 2000 the Jakobshavn started to pick-up speed. It went from the "normal" speed of around less than 1 foot a day to 113 feet a day in 5 years. This was widely reported then, so it's a pretty good benchmark. The program aired in July of 2005, so this morning I went looking to see what the Jakobshavn was doing 2 years later.

Sure enough, the Washington Post ran a story on June 9, 2007 about the research being done on the glacier.
And in that story we get speed report on the largest glacier in Greenland :

From the air, the Jakobshavn looks like a still-life portrait of a river in white, rippled with frozen waves, sinuous as it moves toward the ocean at a rate of 135 feet per day.

In Arctic Ice, Lessons on Effects of Warming

So, it went from 113 feet a day in 2005 to 135 a day in 2007 ..... 22 feet a day faster.
In 2 years, the Jakobshavn Glacier has increased it's speed by nearly 20%.

Here's a great NASA animation of the the glacier in action ..... Jakobshavn Glacier


Link

I wish people would get their facts straight.

I wish people knew what a fact is.

We are now under the watch area here in Florence/Darlington counties in SC. Strong line of storms currently passing through Columbia, SC area. I give it 75 minutes to my neck of the woods.

Quoting 692. win1gamegiantsplease:

Tornado watch extended into Brunswick Bladen and Columbus Counties, NC
707. jpsb
Quoting 698. whitewabit:



it is because of the warming temperature over the ice cap .. it doesn't just set where it has melted water seeks the lowest point .. it acts a lubricant under the ice ..

and science is not nice and neat it is forever changing as we learn more and more ..


BTW an ice cap has a very specific meaning too.

again from wiki

An ice cap is an ice mass that covers less than 50,000 km of land area (usually covering a highland area). Masses of ice covering more than 50,000 km are termed an ice sheet.

I hate to be nit picky but words have meanings and it is a minor annoyance of mine when they are used incorrectly. If the use was not intentional I often let it slide or merely point out that the usage was incorrect. As in your usage of ice cap, no big deal just thought you might like to know what ice cap means when discussing planetary ice. Now the incorrect using in the article was an intentional miss use, that I find very annoying. thus my comment that the grounded ice sheet in Greenland can not possible flow into the ocean via an ice flow.

I did not mean to start an argument just correct a miss representation of the facts.
Many parts of the Orlando area are getting heavy thunderstorms at the moment. Winter Park was dead center in the path of one of the storms and right as it was reaching us a developing cell to the east (I assume) sucked away its energy and it fell apart, leaving us with less than 0.1". We have overall had our share of rain over the past week, getting about 2.5". This is great for April, but I wouldn't mind more:)
Tornado Warning in Arkansas now
Quoting 677. jpsb:
I will give you credit that you found the most important map about Greenland.

Please note the 5 low spots , in the wall around the "island", into that bowl in the middle. That bowl is very very deep.

Now, look up the West coast to the next low spot, That is Peterman glacier, it calves ice bergs the size of New York City :

Satellite image time-lapse of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, during 2011
Quoting 710. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 677. jpsb:
I will give you credit that you found the most important map about Greenland.

Please note the 5 low spots , in the wall around the "island", into that bowl in the middle. That bowl is very very deep.

Now, look up the West coast to the next low spot, That is Peterman glacier, it calves ice bergs the size of New York City :

Satellite image time-lapse of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, during 2011


Bob link didn't work ..
Quoting 707. jpsb:



BTW an ice cap has a very specific meaning too.

again from wiki

An ice cap is an ice mass that covers less than 50,000 km� of land area (usually covering a highland area). Masses of ice covering more than 50,000 km� are termed an ice sheet.

I hate to be nit picky but words have meanings and it is a minor annoyance of mine when they are used incorrectly. If the use was not intentional I often let it slide or merely point out that the usage was incorrect. As in your usage of ice cap, no big deal just thought you might like to know what ice cap means when discussing planetary ice. Now the incorrect using in the article was an intentional miss use, that I find very annoying. thus my comment that the grounded ice sheet in Greenland can not possible flow into the ocean via an ice flow.

I did not mean to start an argument just correct a miss representation of the facts.
"Pedantic" has a very specific meaning too.
Quoting 710. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 677. jpsb:
I will give you credit that you found the most important map about Greenland.

Please note the 5 low spots , in the wall around the "island", into that bowl in the middle. That bowl is very very deep.

Now, look up the West coast to the next low spot, That is Peterman glacier, it calves ice bergs the size of New York City :

Link


One year later -

VIDEO: Giant Iceberg Breaks Off Greenland Glacier

An enormous iceberg tore away from Greenland glacier on Monday. This incredible video shows how much the glacier has lost over the past few years


Link

That's fresh water water leaving the ice sheet in Greenland. Not sea water freezing and thawing.
Quoting 714. LowerCal:

Satellite image time-lapse of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, during 2011

(Really gets good about 30 seconds in.)


the ice burgs in Nares Strait in the few months it isn't ice covered are unbelievably large .. I have pictures I took while I was there a year in that area .. burgs the size of several large city blocks with heights that matched 6-15 stories above the water line were common to see ..
Ah, the classic comma shape:
Quoting 718. wxgeek723:

Ah, the classic comma shape:


yeah I have a wet night and tomorrow on the way
then cooling after that
may even see below freezing temps for a couple of nights
at the end of the week
looking like Thursday night and Friday night
best risk for a freeze
720. jpsb
Quoting 713. ColoradoBob1:



One year later -

VIDEO: Giant Iceberg Breaks Off Greenland Glacier

An enormous iceberg tore away from Greenland glacier on Monday. This incredible video shows how much the glacier has lost over the past few years


Link

That's fresh water water leaving the ice sheet in Greenland. Not sea water freezing and thawing.


You might want to have a look at Current Surface Mass Budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. It not Time Magazine so then again maybe not.
Quoting 718. wxgeek723:

Ah, the classic comma shape:



the northern part is a little deceiving though .. central Illinois where my location is, isn't seeing any rain right now .. and that appears to show heaver rain .. all we have gotten is a light misty rain this afternoon not amounting to much ..
Just about on me here Jedkins big wind gusts and dark clouds,rain should be here shortly......
Quoting 707. jpsb:

.........I hate to be nit picky but words have meanings and it is a minor annoyance of mine when they are used incorrectly. If the use was not intentional I often let it slide or merely point out that the usage was incorrect. As in your usage of ice cap, no big deal just thought you might like to know what ice cap means when discussing planetary ice. Now the incorrect using in the article was an intentional miss use, that I find very annoying. thus my comment that the grounded ice sheet in Greenland can not possible flow into the ocean via an ice flow.

I did not mean to start an argument just correct a miss representation of the facts.


Except of course that isn't what you said.

Quoting 677. jpsb:



The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.........
I wish people would get their facts straight.


Perhaps if your initial statement had been more neat and clear, it wouldn't have elicited so much response. So perhaps "the grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean by means of an 'ice flow' because that particular mechanism isn't applicable in this situation." ? But then of course you wouldn't be able to say people didn't understand what you were saying, which is of course their fault since you understood perfectly well what you meant. Neat and clear indeed.

I think I've seen this technique before.........
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
543 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FLZ043-050-142-148-149-151-242-248-249-251-192230-
COASTAL CITRUS FL-PINELLAS FL-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH FL-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH FL-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH FL-SUMTER FL-PINELLAS FL-
INLAND HERNANDO FL-INLAND CITRUS FL-COASTAL HERNANDO FL-
COASTAL CITRUS FL-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH FL-COASTAL PASCO FL-
INLAND PASCO FL-
543 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILLSBOROUGH...SUMTER...
PINELLAS...CITRUS...HERNANDO AND PASCO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEEKI
WACHEE GARDENS TO 31 MILES WEST OF ANNA MARIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...SPRING HILL...CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...PLANT
CITY...TEMPLE TERRACE...SEMINOLE...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
BROOKSVILLE...INVERNESS...WILDWOOD...DADE CITY...BUSHNELL...HOMOSASSA
SPRINGS...THE VILLAGES...HUDSON...LUTZ AND SAINT PETERSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Quoting 711. whitewabit:



Bob link didn't work ..

I fixed it at 713. It's well worth watching . One year before Watts told us this was all normal. When the big bergs came out of the Peterman.

I really love it when right wing physics appears. It's blend of Dorthy clicking her ruby shoes, and Tinkler Bell in "Never Never Land".
Quoting LargoFl:
Just about on me here Jedkins big wind gusts and dark clouds,rain should be here shortly......


Are you sure that's rain?
Make sure you save some for me.
I really love it when right wing physics appears. It's blend of Dorthy clicking her ruby shoes, and Tinkler Bell in "Never Never Land".
Quoting 725. ColoradoBob1:


I fixed it at 713. It's well worth watching . One year before Watts told us this was all normal. When the big bergs came out of the Peterman.

I really love it when right wing physics appears. It's blend of Dorthy clicking her ruby shoes, and Tinkler Bell in "Never Never Land".


Tks .. saw you had ..
Miami NWS Disco reads like a few wet days for portions of south Florida...

FOR MONDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEEP BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO THE NET EFFECT OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PWAT
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS BEING A POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A CHANCE OF HAIL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS ALWAYS WILL UPDATE THE POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FAVORING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AGAIN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

Greenland's ice is melting so quickly that the land underneath is rising at an accelerated pace.

Letter abstract

Nature Geoscience 3, 404 - 407 (2010)
Published online: 16 May 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo845

Accelerating uplift in the North Atlantic region as an indicator of ice loss

Vertical motions of the rocky margins of Greenland and Antarctica respond to mass changes of their respective ice sheets1, 2. However, these motions can be obscured by episodes of glacial advance or retreat that occurred hundreds to thousands of years ago3, 4, 5, 6, which trigger a delayed response because of viscous flow in the underlying mantle. Here we present high-precision global positioning system (GPS) data that describe the vertical motion of the rocky margins of Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. We focus on vertical accelerations rather than velocities to avoid the confounding effects of past events. Our data show an acceleration of uplift over the past decade that represents an essentially instantaneous, elastic response to the recent accelerated melting of ice throughout the North Atlantic region. Our comparison of the GPS data to models for glacial isostatic adjustment suggests that some parts of western coastal Greenland were experiencing accelerated melting of coastal ice by the late 1990s. Using a simple elastic model, we estimate that western Greenland’s ice loss is accelerating at an average rate of 8.7±3.5 Gt yr−2, whereas the rate for southeastern Greenland—based on limited data—falls at 12.5±5.5 Gt yr−2.


----------

731. vis0
Could be a Satellite issue but figured let me post it before i forget it. Just weird how 2 pTwF (Tropical formations) suddenly blew up just after that flash over extreme northern areas of the imagery, AGAIN it could be a coincidence but to learn one questions all and learns from answers given.

http://youtu.be/elP4apRHGf4






Still have to post 3 clips that had weird anomalies in them, (promised would post it after Hydrus posted a UFO comment lasr Dec2015?)
1 looked very UFO-ish though its just for just 1 frame so unless the anomaly has a sticker that reads MADE in (MARS...one heck of a glue) its just an interesting image. Other 2 satellite images looked like satellite errors but in one case it was matching the aforementioned UFO but 30 mins. earlier from another satellite and for 2 Sats. to have the same "error" black triangular image either an area over Earth is militarily blocked or the same fly landed on 2 satellites : - P.

Here the still of the weirdest one (its the GOES-E then AVIATION Satellites had a Pacific Sat. capture a similar anomaly but 10times smaller over the Pacific BUT IT was very close to where satellite imagery has missing (or blacked out areas) so it could be a blacked out area that was slightly expanded. More latter, too upset as to "car2401 where are you" (ref. to car54 show) being sent to Siberia to "cool off" ,when we know aGW is even turning Siberia into a warmer place.
...come to think of it that weird round on one side thing could be my winter coat button that popped off in 1998 when i gain 30 lbs over the winter, its been in orbit ever since...lets see if i can the left foot socks i lost in my drier...

If there is serious weather conditions CHECK that first visit this after the storms pass
Quoting 720. jpsb:



You might want to have a look at Current Surface Mass Budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. It not Time Magazine so then again maybe not.
If all you look at is the pretty graphics you might get a mistaken impression. In the text you will find this:

"The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."
Quoting 720. jpsb:

You might want to have a look at Current Surface Mass Budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet.


It called the mass balance in Science.

Not the :
Current Surface Mass Budget .

You might want to visit the Dark Snow Project -




Did hurricane Gonzalo get retired
There's been a lot more storm damage in the eastern edge of the slight risk so far than the enhanced risk. It seems in the enhanced risk hail is common but mainly due to steep lapse rates and dry air aloft, but other convective parameters for damaging winds and tornadoes have been on the far eastern side of the slight risk zone today.
For someone who says "I hate to be nit picky but words have meanings and it is a minor annoyance of mine when they are used incorrectly." and "I like things nice and neat and correct.", there sure seems to be a large correctness issue with their posts.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco reads like a few wet days for portions of south Florida...

FOR MONDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEEP BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO THE NET EFFECT OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PWAT
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS BEING A POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A CHANCE OF HAIL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS ALWAYS WILL UPDATE THE POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FAVORING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AGAIN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.



NWS has higher rain chances for South Florida than north Florida on Tuesday. It's been a long time since we've seen this.
The Miami mets were hoping the front would get down in their area and it looks like it will.


If everything goes as planned the front will be across extreme S. Florida on Wednesday.

Quoting 735. windshear1993:

Did hurricane Gonzalo get retired



nop
740. jpsb
Quoting 730. Xandra:

Greenland's ice is melting so quickly that the land underneath is rising at an accelerated pace.



Greenland is part of the North American plate (NAP)



Maybe the entire northern part of NAP is "rebounding" as a result of the great ice sheet melting some 20-12k years ago.




How is California doing? Ped, lowercal, or Taz get any rain lately?
740. jpsb

Maybe Tinkerbell and the Wicked Witch have joined together to change the world ?

I'll need a complete explanation to prove why this is not happening.

Otherwise I'm going with my new theory -

Tinkerbell and the Wicked Witch have joined together to change the world
744. jpsb
Quoting 733. ColoradoBob1:



It called the mass balance in Science.

Not the :
Current Surface Mass Budget .

You might want to visit the Dark Snow Project -







Tell that to the The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) those are their words not mine.
The NBC affiliate WECT erroneously reported the Tornado Watch extension to Bladen, Brunswick, and Columbus Counties. NWS has no record of posting these under the watch areas, although that could change. Straight-line damage is the main area of concern but the areas will be affected with the line currently near Florence and Lumberton.

The watch area stops at the NC/SC line until Robeson County.
746. jpsb
Quoting 732. LowerCal:

If all you look at is the pretty graphics you might get a mistaken impression. In the text you will find this:

"The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."


well 2,850,000 - 200 is not all that scary. let's hope the trend reverses itself.
Quoting 721. whitewabit:



the northern part is a little deceiving though .. central Illinois where my location is, isn't seeing any rain right now .. and that appears to show heaver rain .. all we have gotten is a light misty rain this afternoon not amounting to much ..


Big old dry slot really punched the guts out of the trowel. 1-2" rains were forecasted for almost all of central IL, instead I'm sitting just under a 1/4". Better than nothing I suppose, but I am about 4" or (30%) behind par for the year, and that deficit continues to grow. Very El nino like rain pattern here across the Ohio River Valley.

Dark snow, so much different than yellow snow.
Quoting 746. jpsb:



well 2,850,000 - 200 is not all that scary. let's hope the trend reverses itself.

What's going to cause the trend to reverse itself?
Quoting 749. SeriouslySushi:


What's going to cause the trend to reverse itself?



colder temps.
“ Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. “

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century.
Well up through April 11 I had only a dry 0.05 month to date, but after getting 1.89 today I've had rain for 8 days straight for a total of 5.25 which is now over 2 inches above average, as April is on average the driest month of the year in Tallahassee with an average monthly precip of 3.06.

After all this rain we could use some drying for a bit ironically when we were getting too dry just a week ago, the ground is saturated with the grassy field behind my apartment being water logged and flooded.
Quoting 750. Dakster:



colder temps.

Right, but what will cause those?
754. 882MB
Quoting 734. Gearsts:




Incredible just seeing how warm the E-Pacific is. I expect a very busy season in that neck of the woods, hopefully nothing threatens Hawaii the way it did last year, or Mexico which had absolutely a terrible season, just by saying the name Odile.
Quoting 746. jpsb:



well 2,850,000 - 200 is not all that scary. let's hope the trend reverses itself.


Riiiiiight. It's all okay because, subtraction!

First is was no ice loss, now it's that it is okay because you have decided losing 200 GT per year and accelerating is okay because 2,850,000 is a bigger number. Keep digging,this is quite amusing.

746. jpsb

Way down the thread you claimed no ice was melting off Greenland . You showed a map to prove it.

It's not our fault you had really bad schooling. Maybe your down wind from a coal plant. And mercury will cut everyone in your class.
Now this is what you call a hook echo. Rotation is negligible at best for now.

Quoting 753. SeriouslySushi:


Right, but what will cause those?


Right now it seems nothing less than divine intervention or a miracle.
Quoting 576. Drakoen:



It will be a depressing year for tracking, although we know it only takes one. Hopefully the winter will make up for it.


On the other side of the equation,it will be fun to track many hurricanes in EPAC that stay in open waters.
Line passed through here in West Florence about a half hour ago. Heavy rain. Some gusts 40+. Not a whole lot of lightning and thunder. We got off easy. Im sure there will be some damage reports coming in from the area.

Would not want to be on a boat.


Quoting 745. win1gamegiantsplease:

The NBC affiliate WECT erroneously reported the Tornado Watch extension to Bladen, Brunswick, and Columbus Counties. NWS has no record of posting these under the watch areas, although that could change. Straight-line damage is the main area of concern but the areas will be affected with the line currently near Florence and Lumberton.

The watch area stops at the NC/SC line until Robeson County.
Quoting 760. BaltimoreBrian:

Save the snowman!


Lost cause....
Quoting 758. Dakster:



Right now it seems nothing less than divine intervention or a miracle.


I concur.
764. jpsb
Quoting 756. ColoradoBob1:


746. jpsb

Way down the thread you claimed no ice was melting off Greenland . You showed a map to prove it.

It's not our fault you had really bad schooling. Maybe your down wind from a coal plant. And mercury will cut everyone in your class.


No I did not, stop making stuff up. I said that grounded ice sheet of Greenland could not flow into the ocean since Greenland is a bowl. Ice sheet and ice flow are terms with specific meanings. If you are not going to be truthful then having a discussion will be difficult.
Quoting 749. SeriouslySushi:

What's going to cause the trend to reverse itself?

Leprechauns - The only cooling supernatural radiative forcing known to blog science


(Click for larger image)

H/T Dr. Inferno
766. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


On the other side of the equation,it will be fun to track many hurricanes in EPAC that stay in open waters.

fun ?? my interest is just the atlantic season...
Quoting jpsb:


well 2,850,000 - 200 is not all that scary. let's hope the trend reverses itself.


The mass loss is accelerating. Until last year ;) The loss has been thousands of Gt, not 200.

Click graph to expand.



Latest NOAA annual report about the Greenland Ice Sheet.
I'm only just now realizing how amazingly close this year's NDJFM pattern was to the +TNI (Trans Nino Index) regressed 500mb heights (+TNI=higher SSTs anoms NINO 1-2 vs 4, in this case, indicative of a EP/Basin Wide El Nino)... Who knew last winter would have amounted to a simple cut & paste of the +TNI...



The rain and wind have arrived.Should knock some of this pollen out of the air that has been high since Friday especially from Saturday.The trees/plants/flowers were celebrating on Saturday when temps were in the low to mid 80's across the area.
Quoting 742. Dakster:

How is California doing? Ped, lowercal, or Taz get any rain lately?
A few hudredths and maybe a few more Friday. Better than nothing but just the metaphorical drop in the bucket.
Quoting 746. jpsb:



well 2,850,000 - 200 is not all that scary. let's hope the trend reverses itself.
It would have to stop accelerating first. It's the positive feedback that's scary.
Cody how can you have a hook with negligible rotation? Doesn't rotation form the hook?
Quoting 621. Storms306:

Whatcha mean by normal Washi? Me personally, i enjoy watching the storms form and seeing how powerful they can be. I enjoy all types of extreme weather, but then again what 22 y/o adrenaline junky doesn't?lol
Yes the adrenaline is definitely for the young'ins lol.When I heard those winds roaring outside I took the kids and we took cover.
Quoting 768. Webberweather53:

I'm only just now realizing how amazingly close this year's NDJFM pattern was to the +TNI (Trans Nino Index) regressed 500mb heights (+TNI=higher SSTs anoms NINO 1-2 vs 4, in this case, indicative of a EP/Basin Wide El Nino)... Who knew last winter would have amounted to a simple cut & paste of the +TNI...





Quoting 749. SeriouslySushi:


What's going to cause the trend to reverse itself?

Hope?
For Washingtonian, 150 years ago today:

Lincoln's funeral procession, April 19 1865, Washington DC.


Quoting 761. HaoleboySurfEC:

Line passed through here in West Florence about a half hour ago. Heavy rain. Some gusts 40+. Not a whole lot of lightning and thunder. We got off easy. Im sure there will be some damage reports coming in from the area.

Would not want to be on a boat.





One large cell has made it into Brunswick County, but the line is still in SC, Georgetown up towards Conway getting it now.
778. jpsb
Quoting 767. BaltimoreBrian:



The mass loss is accelerating. The loss has been thousands of Gt, not 200.

Click graph to expand.





For some strange reason images are not being displayed so I am afraid I can't clink the graph. When I want info about the Greenland Ice Sheet I go to the experts on the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Danes They say 200GT/year. However 2015 might be a net gain year, if the summer melt season is not to bad.
Webberweather, please explain #768 in terms even a middle aged army officer with calcified neurons can understand.
Quoting 767. BaltimoreBrian:



The mass loss is accelerating. Until last year ;) The loss has been thousands of Gt, not 200.

Click graph to expand.

Link

Latest NOAA annual report about the Greenland Ice Sheet.


I think I am glad I am selling my coastal Miami Dade home... Ocean front is nice - but in the ocean is bad...
Quoting 772. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody how can you have a hook with negligible rotation? Doesn't rotation form the hook?

I should be more clear. There is some rotation given the presence of the hook, but it is not concise nor vigorous enough to be too concerned about an imminent tornado.
Thanks Cody.
Quoting 770. LowerCal:

A few hudredths and maybe a few more Friday. Better than nothing but just the metaphorical drop in the bucket.


A few hundredths - are you sure that was not a plane overhead dropping some blue ice on you?

I think you all need a nice tropical storm to come ashore. (Not a hurricane)
784. txjac
Tornado, thunderstorms, hail and wind reports here in the Houston area
Weather advisories have been playing on the tv.
Looks like its moving pretty quickly, shouldnt be here long at all.
Having a fully sunny day today was quite a surprise as its been pretty overcast for about a week or so. Sun only poking out here and there ...got pretty warm too - about 83F
Quoting 764. jpsb:



No I did not, stop making stuff up. I said that grounded ice sheet of Greenland could not flow into the ocean since Greenland is a bowl. Ice sheet and ice flow are terms with specific meanings. If you are not going to be truthful then having a discussion will be difficult.
Meltwater Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet | Photo & Video Gallery | INSTAAR | CU-Boulder
Oh, I get it. Once it's meltwater it's no longer part of the ice sheet. You are so clever.
Quoting 754. 882MB:



Incredible just seeing how warm the E-Pacific is. I expect a very busy season in that neck of the woods, hopefully nothing threatens Hawaii the way it did last year, or Mexico which had absolutely a terrible season, just by saying the name Odile.


I have a house in Maui, and it has never been a problem.
However, although early, this is developing into a dicy situation.
Mexico should be in for a wild ride.
Quoting 776. BaltimoreBrian:

For Washingtonian, 150 years ago today:

Lincoln's funeral procession, April 19 1865, Washington DC.



There were small gatherings around the city by hustorians this morning and also in old Alexandria discusing the incident over brunch of course :).

Can someone translate post 768?
Weather at the battles of Concord and Lexington, MA, April 19, 1775

Lows 37 in Concord, 38 in Lexington, 42 in Boston.

Highs 56 Boston, 62 in Lexington & Concord, fair calm weather.

Great Britain: 73 killed, 174 wounded, 53 captured
Colonials: 49 killed, 39 wounded, 0 captured.

Quoting 667. MaxWeather:

So I'm looking for my 80th prediction.
I'll take anyone ready

The Hurricane chart is about 40 days to close up


Alright... Here's mine:

10-4-1. I feel like it will be another one of those years in which nothing really gets going. Wind shear is about as beneficial as a brick wall when it comes to development, and it should be out in abundancy this year.
The tornado watch across portions of NC/SC was just expanded to include my county--the first of the year here.

Quoting 766. JRRP:


fun ?? my interest is just the atlantic season...


I like to track every TC on all the basins.
Quoting 737. Naga5000:

For someone who says "I hate to be nit picky but words have meanings and it is a minor annoyance of mine when they are used incorrectly." and "I like things nice and neat and correct.", there sure seems to be a large correctness issue with their posts.


He is a good example of the Dunning–Kruger effect. That is one of the most powerful cognitive bias around. The self assurance when someone is talking about a subject which they haven't studied extensively is a dead give away. It is the old battle between intuition and rationality which will be played out here again and again in the comment section in the coming hurricane season. Can't wait for the first 386 h model run showing a tropical system impacting Florida :)

What was the song from Public Enemy - Bring the Noise, sorry I go with the signal...
Quoting 655. beell:



A page refresh on your end should bring it down to the size that the rest of us see, bf.
Yes, I know that ( a refresh after posting comment) will smallen the graphic, and it does - but not to anywhere near the way it should or used to do. Thanks just the same. Possible it's my browser.
Quoting 792. ChrisHamburg:



He is a good example of the Dunning–Kruger effect. That is one of the most powerful cognitive bias around. The self assurance when someone is talking about a subject which they haven't studied extensively is a dead give away. It is the old battle between intuition and rationality which will be played out here again and again in the comment section in the coming hurricane season. Can't wait for the first 386 h model run showing a tropical system impacting Florida :)

What was the song from Public Enemy - Bring the Noise, sorry I go with the signal...


I like you.
Quoting 657. LowerCal:

I've noticed in NU WU that images are not resized for "Preview Comment" or after "Modify Comment" > "Submit". They do resize after "Post Comment" or a Reload after "Modify Comment" > "Submit".
Yes, I have noted that also. Some graphics still look too large. Other graphics do not. Can't use code to make them smaller like we used to do in the classic and medieval wu periods. Thanks just the same.
The line of thunderstorms associated with tree damage today looks to have lost some punch according to radar.
Quoting 788. BaltimoreBrian:

Weather at the battles of Concord and Lexington, MA, April 19, 1775

Lows 37 in Concord, 38 in Lexington, 42 in Boston.

Highs 56 Boston, 62 in Lexington & Concord, fair calm weather.

Great Britain: 73 killed, 174 wounded, 53 captured
Colonials: 49 killed, 39 wounded, 0 captured.





Which side was Gro fighting for? :O)
Quoting 794. Naga5000:
Quoting 792. ChrisHamburg:

[...]
What was the song from Public Enemy - Bring the Noise, sorry I go with the signal...

I like you.


This is why I find difficult for a person to say they are doing the "right thing" regarding their personal approach to climate change when they do not even understand the basics behind the problem. For one say that they are already following the tenants of proposed solutions to human-induced global warming without acknowledging its existence is disingenuous to the issue.

"...the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."

—David Dunning


There is nothing to worry about, there has been no Greenland ice loss since July 2012!

Do I have this cherry-picking denialist line-of-thinking right?
I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, Greenland has been gaining ice for the past decade...

Quoting 800. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, Greenland has been gaining ice for the past decade...




The inverted perspective. The answer to many of our problems.
Quoting 778. jpsb:


For some strange reason images are not being displayed so I am afraid I can't clink the graph. When I want info about the Greenland Ice Sheet I go to the experts on the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Danes They say 200GT/year. However 2015 might be a net gain year, if the summer melt season is not to bad.
Very strange that that your Quote failed to pick up the link
Latest NOAA annual report about the Greenland Ice Sheet
from the comment!

Just in case you have trouble with that link again here's the relevant section from that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration link.
Total Ice Mass

GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity solutions are used to estimate monthly changes in the total mass of the Greenland ice sheet (Velicogna and Wahr 2006; Fig. 3.3). At the time of writing, data were available only through June 2014. Between the beginning of June 2013 and the beginning of June 2014, which corresponds closely to the period between the onsets of the 2013 and 2014 melt seasons, there was virtually no net change in cumulative ice sheet mass (Fig. 3.3). The very small 6 Gt (Gigatonne) loss during that 12 month period contrasts with the previous eleven consecutive years of large losses, and particularly with the 474 Gt mass loss between June 2012 and June 2013, the highest annual loss observed in the GRACE record (Note).

Figure - Monthly mass anomalies for the Greenland ice sheet

Fig. 3.3. Monthly mass anomalies (in Gigatonnes, Gt) for the Greenland ice sheet since April 2002 estimated from GRACE measurements. The anomalies are expressed as departures from the 2002-2014 mean value for each month. For reference, orange asterisks denote June values (or May for those years when June is missing).
Ice sheet mass loss from 2002-2015 has been about 3400 GT or about 260 GT/year during the years the GRACE satellite has been measuring.

Quoting 800. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, Greenland has been gaining ice for the past decade...




It's been gaining ice more negatively, especially from the years 5015 to 5013
Quoting 800. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, Greenland has been gaining ice for the past decade...


They obviously looked at the map the wrong way......common mistake.
Quoting 797. TimTheWxMan:

Which side was Gro fighting for? :O)
He was too old to fight, already pensioned out :P
Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Quoting 779. BaltimoreBrian:

Webberweather, please explain #768 in terms even a middle aged army officer with calcified neurons can understand.


Lol. All I'm saying is, I'm simply stunned how strongly the regressed... (regression statistically just refers to how an dependent variable (y) is dependent on a prescribed set of values from (x), not necessarily how those indices vary together, which is correlation. Linear regression is one of the most common types)...TNI (Trans Nino Index) corresponds to the previous 5 month Northern hemisphere 500mb pattern. It's not too uncommon to see one or two months w/ this kind of semblance in the z500 to a teleconnection, but to see this over the course of 5 months is just absolutely insane... This certainly defeated the idea that we somehow observed a CP (Modoki) El Nino last winter...

The TNI is another SST-based measure of ENSO's behavior along w/ the ONI, however the TNI only describes the zonal SST gradient between the equatorial South American coast (NINO 1-2) & the central Pacific (NINO 4), not the actual phase (El Nino/La Nina) or intensity (Neutral, Weak, Moderate, Strong, "Super", etc.) of an ENSO event... Due to the equatorward advection of cold water within the Peru/Humboldt current, easterly trades, etc, the SSTs usually increase with westward progression across the equatorial Pacific & vis versa....


A (-) TNI is associated a weaker (stronger) than normal zonal SST gradient w/ relatively stronger (-) SST anomalies in the NINO 1-2 vs NINO 3-4 region...

This piece of literature discusses the TNI in more detail.
Trenberth & Stepaniak (2000) "Letters Indices of ENSO Evolution" Link

The description of the TNI's abrupt/unusual behavior following the 1976-77 "climate shift" that's offered by these authors in their abstract....

"TNI leads N3.4 by 3 to 12 months prior to the climate shift in 1976/77 and also follows N3.4 but with opposite sign 3 to 12 months later. However, after 1976/77, the sign of the TNI leads and lags are reversed."
...is likely attributed to the multidecadal PDO shift in 1976-77, where in there was also a dramatic change in the behavior during the onset of El Nino events... Most El Ninos before the 1976-77 PDO shift began in the far eastern Pacific (NINO 1-2) & migrated westward, whereas, after this shift occurred, El Ninos, relatively speaking, began instead over the central Pacific & migrated eastward w/ time... Exactly why this occurred is still a mystery to me.

Here are the tri-monthly averaged SSTs from FMA thru MJJ for first year 1950-1975 & 1976-2002 El Ninos...



BTW, this TNH-biased pattern certainly isn't helping California, in fact, if you compare the N hem winter z500 for the top 10 wettest vs driest winters in California, you virtually end up with a carbon copy of the TNH (Tropical-Northern Hemisphere) pattern... surprise! (sarc).

N hem regressed z500 DJF TNH



N hem z500 top 10 driest (1976-77, 1990-91, 1963-64, 2011-12, 2013-14, 1975-76, 1984-85, 1989-90, 1988-89, 1960-61) vs top 10 wettest (1968-69, 1997-98, 1992-93, 1955-56, 1977-78, 1982-83, 1996-97, 1979-80, 1951-52, 1995-96) winters (DJF) in California.


The persistent & powerful barotropic tornado over Hudson Bay-Greenland needs to be destroyed in order for California's fortunes to change & for us to finally observe a legitimate, global-scale pattern change (eventual return to -ENSO/La Nina). It will probably take a major, midwinter sudden stratospheric warming event to accomplish this task, although CA will receive a break over the summer as the PV resorts to its relatively dormant summer phase.
Quoting 766. JRRP:


fun ?? my interest is just the atlantic season...


I'm not. I'm tired of North Atlantic since 2011. Even South Atlantic is being better. Subtropical Depression in Januery, Subtropical Storm Bapo in early February 2015, possible subtropical storm (maybe even tropical) in mid February 2015, Subtropical Storm Cari and possible another subtropical system in mid April.

2014-15 South Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Subtropical Depression "1SL":
Winds 35 mph. Pressure 1006 mbar


Subtropical Storm Bapo - February 5th - February 8th - 2015 (2SL)
Winds 40mph. Pressure 992 mbar.


Maybe a subtropical or tropical system around February 16th 2015 (3SL)




Subtropical Storm Cari (4SL):
Winds 45 mph (maybe 50 mph). Pressure: 998 mbar.


Maybe Subtropical or Tropical system in April 16th-18th 2015.
winds: unknow pressure: unknow


I find it amusing sometimes when someone writes about places they have never been and speak as if it is a fact. As many of you know, I lived on Greenland and Iceland and studied there. There are at least 3 bloggers on here that I often send postcards from there and other places. While I admit it has been more than 3 years since I have been back to Greenland, let me assure you; they have serious problems. The glaciers have been receding at an unprecedented rate and they ice lost is unbelievable. Even the salinity of the surrounding ocean is beginning to affect the aquatic life. They are very concerned.


P.S. During the Battles of Lexington and Concord, I was visiting an Aunt in Stockholm, so joke is on you.
Quoting 810. Grothar:

I find it amusing sometimes when someone writes about places they have never been and speak as if it is a fact.


Mars is blue, Venus is purple, and Grothar's house sits on 3,000 acres of pristine arctic forest.
746. jpsb

“ Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. “

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century.

About the August, 2014 dark Greenland photos
Posted on October 29, 2014 by Jason Box

Link
Quoting 812. ColoradoBob1:

746. jpsb

“ Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. “

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century.


And the production of cement for concrete is about the biggest source of CO2 pollution. I think China is working hard to catch up, but the US has a long head start!
Sunday reading:



*** Brazil to Offer Ambitious Climate Plan With More Renewables

* Nuclear power: UK 'must learn' from French reactor concerns

* Demand for rubber 'threatens forests'

CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps


!!! CryoSat Operational Polar Monitoring This site posts updates of ice thickness with a two day delay. Added to the government agencies section second from the top of my blog.

Antarctica blows hot and cold for now: Natural variability may at the moment be affecting Antarctica's temperature more than human activity, but climate change will still be a major influence.

!!! Bacterial flora of remote tribespeople carries antibiotic resistance genes

Are populations aging more slowly than we think?

*** Understanding thermo-mechanical properties of a new class of materials

A blueprint for clearing the skies of space debris

*** Engineers purify sea and wastewater in 2.5 minutes

!!! Greenland continuing to darken

How ancient species survived or died off in their old Kentucky home

*** Wildfires emit more greenhouse gases than assumed in California climate targets



Five years after BP oil spill, some Gulf oystermen are losing hope

* California revises drought plan after pressure from cities

California environmental groups sue over refinery marine terminal

Phillips 66 says pipeline leaked diesel into Mississippi River


* Green group praises Jeb Bush on climate remarks

Scientists create self-powering camera

Another PG&E pipeline explosion: What was learned from the 2010 explosion? (with video)

Why Apple is buying 36,000 acres of forest

Obama will visit the Florida Everglades on Earth Day to talk about climate change

* The Keystone XL debate is highly partisan unless you live near the proposed pipeline route

* Solar Power Battle Puts Hawaii at Forefront of Worldwide Changes

Conflict Over Soil and Water Quality Puts 'Iowa Nice' to a Test

* Greens divided over Hillary Clinton and Keystone

*** NASA Earth from Orbit 2014 (video)
Quoting 764. jpsb:



No I did not, stop making stuff up. I said that grounded ice sheet of Greenland could not flow into the ocean since Greenland is a bowl. Ice sheet and ice flow are terms with specific meanings. If you are not going to be truthful then having a discussion will be difficult.


I'll go get it for you.

746. jpsb

Way down the thread you claimed no ice was melting off Greenland . You showed a map to prove it.
.


Then you wrote:

"Ice sheet and ice flow are terms with specific meanings."

Please explain each one in detail,

Quoting 807. Webberweather53:





"TNI leads N3.4 by 3 to 12 months prior to the climate shift in 1976/77 and also follows N3.4 but with opposite sign 3 to 12 months later. However, after 1976/77, the sign of the TNI leads and lags are reversed."
...is likely attributed to the multidecadal PDO shift in 1976-77, where in there was also a dramatic change in the behavior during the onset of El Nino events... Most El Ninos before the 1976-77 PDO shift began in the far eastern Pacific (NINO 1-2) & migrated westward, whereas, after this shift occurred, El Ninos, relatively speaking, began instead over the central Pacific & migrated eastward w/ time... Exactly why this occurred is still a mystery to me.



Interesting, how does this compare to the drought in California today as to the period from this shift to the turn of the millennium when some areas of California received from almost twice the average annual rainfall going back to a La Nina cycle?
Quoting 814. CaneFreeCR:

And the production of cement for concrete is about the biggest source of CO2 pollution. I think China is working hard to catch up, but the US has a long head start!



Greenland continuing to darken
Date:
April 17, 2015
Source:
City College of New York
Summary:
Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet is projected to continue as a consequence of continued climate warming, according to experts

Link
About 2 miles west of me there are trees down everywhere. Lightning as well was about the worst I've ever seen. Very close strikes one after another.







Alright you guys, I'll be taking a weather vacation for a week. So I will see you guys later and stay safe. God bless you and I love you guys.
Here is a video showing the storm on radar head for my area.

img src="">
Storms as they headed into Cape Canaveral

I think its safe to say we might have a ONI reading for April in Moderate El-Nino territory.


Quoting 798. Daisyworld:



This is why I find difficult for a person to say they are doing the "right thing" regarding their personal approach to climate change when they do not even understand the basics behind the problem. For one say that they are already following the tenants of proposed solutions to human-induced global warming without acknowledging its existence is disingenuous to the issue.

"...the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."

—David Dunning
I can't figure how you would find it difficult to understand how any action taken by any individual or group toward protection of the planet is not disingenuous to the issue of global warming.

Also, the tenants in the tenement must adhere to the tenets of the swimming pool association.
Quoting 823. StormTrackerScott:

I think its safe to say we might have a ONI reading for April in Moderate El-Nino territory.



I'm sticking with 2.5 as the peak.
He noted that a darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet associated with increasing temperatures and enhanced melting occurred between 1996 and 2012. It was promoted by:

Extensively and persistently increased surface snow grain size;
The expansion and persistency of the areas of exposed bare ice and by the increased surface impurities concentration associated with the appearance of dirty ice;
Increased impurities concentrations due to consolidation with snowmelt.


Link
Quoting 825. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm sticking with 2.5 as the peak.



I'm still at 1.8C but latest model trends are pushing Nino 3.4 at peak to near 2.5C so you maybe right.
Quoting 825. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm sticking with 2.5 as the peak.


I bet you love being on the easternside of FL enjoying all these storms day after day.
Quoting 677. jpsb:

The grounded ice of Greenland is not flowing into the ocean. Greenland is a bowl with the ice in the middle of that bowl.



"I'll go get it your you."

Wind starting to pick up from the southerly direction as the bulk of the rain/t-showers pass by. Good night wunderworld.
Quoting 817. win1gamegiantsplease:



Interesting, how does this compare to the drought in California today as to the period from this shift to the turn of the millennium when some areas of California received from almost twice the average annual rainfall going back to a La Nina cycle?


It really depends on what metric is being used... If you look @ the NCDC data, in terms of PDSI, because of land use changes, urban/agricultural demand, warmer temperatures, etc... it's virtually off the charts. As far as this past NDJFM's rainfall is concerned, it was far from the worst in California (ranked 25th overall), 1976-77 is way out front w/ an anomaly of -11.32" & using a 12 month metric, 1975-76 & 1976-77 are still the worst back-to-back years in the state... however a 48-month running mean shows the current drought (strictly in terms of precip) as #1...

I also compared the top 10 driest & wettest pre 1950 Californian winters with the slightly more uncertain/less reliable 20th century reanalysis data & even in this dataset, the N hem winter pattern difference is still fairly close to the +TNH...
Quoting 828. StormTrackerScott:



I bet you love being on the easternside of FL enjoying all these storms day after day.
We didn't get much here in Daytona today, the heavy stuff stayed south of us near Titusville and more over towards Orlando and the stretch of I-4 from Longwood your neck of the woods to DeLand, where they blew up right along the coast due to the seabreeze collision. It was a light show offshore from what I heard. In fact, I think today the Tampa Bay area got much more rainfall then we did. That line as Jedkins alluded to held together, despite most of the upper level energy being lifted northward, there was still enough CAPE and surface heating to nullify the cooler shelf waters. Sometimes these forcing mechanisms can outplay each other. The other day I was forecasting for Denver in my class and despite the downsloping wind profile at the surface that was showing up on the soundings, which normally bring drier air it stilled snowed. My teacher was telling me there is some kind of localized circulation, called the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone aka the Denver Cyclone.
Quoting 833. GTstormChaserCaleb:
We didn't get much here in Daytona today, the heavy stuff stayed south of us near Titusville and more over towards Orlando and the stretch of I-4 from Longwood your neck of the woods to DeLand, where they blew up right along the coast due to the seabreeze collision. It was a light show offshore from what I heard. In fact, I think today the Tampa Bay area got much more rainfall then we did. That line as Jedkins alluded to held together, despite most of the upper level energy being lifted northward, there was still enough CAPE and surface heating to nullify the cooler shelf waters. Sometimes these forcing mechanisms can outplay each other. The other day I was forecasting for Denver in my class and despite the downsloping wind profile at the surface that was showing up on the soundings, which normally bring drier air it stilled snowed. My teacher was telling me there is some kind of localized circulation, called the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone aka the Denver Cyclone.


Tomorrow looks much more active across FL. Infact C & N FL could be in for lots of hail with many of the storms that form and some of the hail could be very large in size.
Quoting 823. StormTrackerScott:

I think its safe to say we might have a ONI reading for April in Moderate El-Nino territory.





The ONI is not going to report values in moderate territory until July at the earliest because it integrates the previous 3 months of data into their reported tri-monthly values in order to mix-out any higher freq "noise" that can contaminate ENSO. Even then, the metric for deriving ENSO intensity from ONI is 3 successive overlapping 3-month periods @ or above +1.0C and it we'll probably have to wait until late in the summer or early in the fall (~Aug-Sep) (again, @ the earliest) before we officially cross that threshold.
Quoting 835. Webberweather53:


The ONI is not going to report values in moderate territory until July at the earliest because it integrates the previous 3 months of data into their reported tri-monthly values in order to mix-out any higher freq "noise" that can contaminate ENSO. Even then, the metric for deriving ENSO intensity from ONI is 3 successive overlapping 3-month periods @ or above 1.0C and it we'll probably have to wait until late in the summer or early in the fall (~Aug-Sep) (again, @ the earliest) before we officially cross that threshold.


My point is the ONI reading for April should come in at 0.9C or 1.0C. Although not "official" it does seem given the current pattern ongoing across North America that El-Nino is strengthening into Moderate Territory.
Quoting 815. BaltimoreBrian:

Green group praises Jeb Bush on climate remarks
I read that, and I really don't see anything to praise him for.




The summer of 2012 has proven to be the most severe wildfire season Russia has faced in a decade. Unlike 2010, when severe fires raged in western Russia, most of the fires in 2012 have burned through taiga in remote parts of eastern and central Siberia.

On September 11, 2012, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image of fires burning in Tomsk, a region of south central Siberia where severe wildfires have burned throughout the summer. Thick smoke billowed from numerous wildfires near the Ob River and mixed with haze and clouds that arrived from the southwest. Red outlines indicate hot spots where MODIS detected the unusually warm surface temperatures associated with fires.

More than 17,000 wildfires had burned more than 30 million hectares (74 million acres) through August 2012, according to researchers at the Sukachev Institute of Forest in the Russian Academy of Sciences. In comparison, 20 million hectares burned last year, which was roughly the average between 2000 and 2008, according to an analysis of MODIS data published in 2010.


Link
Quoting 836. StormTrackerScott:



My point is the ONI reading for April should come in at 0.9C or 1.0C. Although not "official" it does seem given the current pattern ongoing across North America that El-Nino is strengthening into Moderate Territory.


You simply don't understand... Let me make myself very clear... The ONI is a tri-monthly (3 month) average of the ERSSTv3b dataset (that often has some errors in the first new reported value or two), which is used to deter high freq "noise" from disturbing the "true" ENSO signal. Looking at the OISSTv2 weekly data, I guarantee you that the ONI will not be reported that high this month. Again, the first tri-monthly that may go over or reach the moderate threshold probably won't be observed until AMJ, which means we should expect to see such a value be reported in July @ the earliest & it will be a few months after that before we can officially declare this (under ONI criteria) event as a moderate El Nino
840. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think its safe to say we might have a ONI reading for April in Moderate El-Nino territory.



I do not think so...
842. jpsb


Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2011 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 22 years (in the period 1990-2011) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 22 years have been left out.


http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenlan d-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
Looks like we need to see where it ends up later this year?

Quoting jpsb:


Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2011 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 22 years (in the period 1990-2011) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 22 years have been left out.


http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenlan d-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
844. vis0
Quoting 815. BaltimoreBrian:

Sunday reading:



*** Brazil to Offer Ambitious Climate Plan With More Renewables

* Nuclear power: UK 'must learn' from French reactor concerns

* Demand for rubber 'threatens forests'

CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps


!!! CryoSat Operational Polar Monitoring This site posts updates of ice thickness with a two day delay. Added to the government agencies section second from the top of my blog.

Antarctica blows hot and cold for now: Natural variability may at the moment be affecting Antarctica's temperature more than human activity, but climate change will still be a major influence.

!!! Bacterial flora of remote tribespeople carries antibiotic resistance genes

Are populations aging more slowly than we think?

*** Understanding thermo-mechanical properties of a new class of materials

A blueprint for clearing the skies of space debris

*** Engineers purify sea and wastewater in 2.5 minutes

!!! Greenland continuing to darken

How ancient species survived or died off in their old Kentucky home

*** Wildfires emit more greenhouse gases than assumed in California climate targets



Five years after BP oil spill, some Gulf oystermen are losing hope

* California revises drought plan after pressure from cities

California environmental groups sue over refinery marine terminal

Phillips 66 says pipeline leaked diesel into Mississippi River


* Green group praises Jeb Bush on climate remarks

Scientists create self-powering camera

Another PG&E pipeline explosion: What was learned from the 2010 explosion? (with video)

Why Apple is buying 36,000 acres of forest

Obama will visit the Florida Everglades on Earth Day to talk about climate change

* The Keystone XL debate is highly partisan unless you live near the proposed pipeline route

* Solar Power Battle Puts Hawaii at Forefront of Worldwide Changes

Conflict Over Soil and Water Quality Puts 'Iowa Nice' to a Test

* Greens divided over Hillary Clinton and Keystone

*** NASA Earth from Orbit 2014 (video)
i know of a few guys that can do that in 1 min in da back woods of SC...oh wait that's not H2).
845. vis0
Quoting 815. BaltimoreBrian:

Sunday reading:



*** Brazil to Offer Ambitious Climate Plan With More Renewables

* Nuclear power: UK 'must learn' from French reactor concerns

* Demand for rubber 'threatens forests'

CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps


!!! CryoSat Operational Polar Monitoring This site posts updates of ice thickness with a two day delay. Added to the government agencies section second from the top of my blog.

Antarctica blows hot and cold for now: Natural variability may at the moment be affecting Antarctica's temperature more than human activity, but climate change will still be a major influence.

!!! Bacterial flora of remote tribespeople carries antibiotic resistance genes

Are populations aging more slowly than we think?

*** Understanding thermo-mechanical properties of a new class of materials

A blueprint for clearing the skies of space debris

*** Engineers purify sea and wastewater in 2.5 minutes

!!! Greenland continuing to darken

How ancient species survived or died off in their old Kentucky home

*** Wildfires emit more greenhouse gases than assumed in California climate targets



Five years after BP oil spill, some Gulf oystermen are losing hope

* California revises drought plan after pressure from cities

California environmental groups sue over refinery marine terminal

Phillips 66 says pipeline leaked diesel into Mississippi River


* Green group praises Jeb Bush on climate remarks

Scientists create self-powering camera

Another PG&E pipeline explosion: What was learned from the 2010 explosion? (with video)

Why Apple is buying 36,000 acres of forest

Obama will visit the Florida Everglades on Earth Day to talk about climate change

* The Keystone XL debate is highly partisan unless you live near the proposed pipeline route

* Solar Power Battle Puts Hawaii at Forefront of Worldwide Changes

Conflict Over Soil and Water Quality Puts 'Iowa Nice' to a Test

* Greens divided over Hillary Clinton and Keystone

*** NASA Earth from Orbit 2014 (video)
i know of a few guys that can do that in 1 min in da back woods of SC...oh wait that's not H2O).
847. MahFL
Yesterday the pre- frontal storms missed Orange Park and the main squall front fizzled out, we got no measurable rain.
Quoting 847. MahFL:

Yesterday the pre- frontal storms missed Orange Park and the mail squall front fizzled out, we got no measurable rain.


Same thing happened to me in Tampa. It rained for about 15 seconds and that was it. It looked pretty ominous coming in but completely fizzled out once onshore.
Quoting 764. jpsb:


No I did not, stop making stuff up. I said that grounded ice sheet of Greenland could not flow into the ocean since Greenland is a bowl.

Crazy question. Probably couldn't happen in a billion years, but what if the ice was higher than the sides of the bowl and began to melt? What would happen?
Quoting 837. oldnewmex:
I read that, and I really don't see anything to praise him for.
Indeed. Takeaways from the article:

1) Bush has "made comments questioning whether human beings cause climate change."

2) "Bush...[reaffirmed] his support for the Canada-to-United States Keystone pipeline"

3) "We need to work with the rest of the world to negotiate a way to reduce carbon emissions,%u201D [Bush] said. However, he stressed that the U.S. should not lead, but rather follow on this issue because business. "[I'm] more concerned about the United States maintaining its economic competitiveness."

Okay, now I get it; if you squint hard enough, and completely ignore the context, the first sentence in item #3 can be construed as at least a partial nod toward recognizing that we are dirtying up the atmosphere at a stupefying pace. That's not much, really; in fact, it's so treacly and weak and watered down as to be practically nothing. But it's nevertheless infinitely more than we're hearing from the rest of the "drill, baby, drill"-shouting fools jumping aboard the party's clown mobile...
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Same thing happened to me in Tampa. It rained for about 15 seconds and that was it. It looked pretty ominous coming in but completely fizzled out once onshore.


That was petty bad. All day there was a huge, intense line of storms offshore in the GOM.
Then just as the line reached the coast near Tampa it just fizzled out.
It was really weird (even though it happens quite frequently). Being the heat of the day, high dew points, etc you wouldn't have thought the line would have just died like that.
Quoting 852. tampabaymatt:




Everyone in C FL is going to get rain today not just me.
Quoting 853. Sfloridacat5:



That was petty bad. All day there was a huge, intense line of storms offshore in the GOM.
Then just as the line reached the coast near Tampa it just fizzled out.
It was really weird (even though it happens quite frequently). Being the heat of the day, high dew points, etc you wouldn't have thought the line would have just died like that.
the guy on the tampa fox channel just noted that and stated today would be similar. says to expect rain but light and scattered.
The GFS is very generous and gives everyone in Florida rain today except coastal S.W. Fl.

Quoting intampa:
the guy on the tampa fox channel just noted that and stated today would be similar. says to expect rain but light and scattered.


The next 3 days have the best chances of rain we've had in 7 weeks so hopefully we'll get some decent rain.
The GFS isn't very optimistic about S.W. leaving us pretty dry though.

But we have 50%, 60%, and 70% chance of rain. Then rain chances drop significantly towards the end of the week.
Quoting 856. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS is very generous and gives everyone in Florida rain today except coastal S.W. Fl.




You should see the all the trees down just to my west. News says winds were likely 80 to 90mph in Apopka. Literally about 2 to 3 miles west of me.
Very impressive Squall Line in the Gulf moving quickly for Western FL. Should come ashore over the next 4 hours.

Here we go Severe Weather Watch may be posted for North & possibly C FL as there is a very strong line of storms racing toward FL this morning. This line will NOT weaken as it comes ashore folks so get ready if you are out on the beaches of western FL.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EXTREME SOUTH GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201235Z - 201500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP INLAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EVENTUALLY FAR SOUTHERN GA. A WATCH ISSUANCE
DOES NOT SEEM IMMINENT /AS OF 1230Z/...BUT A WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF 300+ MILE NEARLY CONTINUOUS
SQUALL LINE /THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO/ CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY APPROACH NEAR-COASTAL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA VICINITY. BASED ON THE
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE...SOME NEAR-SURFACE
INHIBITION EXISTS INLAND PARTICULARLY GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE
QUALITY/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH. PRE-SQUALL LINE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE IS
ALSO LIMITED BY SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1-3 KM AGL AS PER TALLAHASSEE
WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. NONETHELESS...A
NEAR-COASTAL STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS AS
SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES INLAND. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE MORNING AS SOME ADDITIONAL
HEATING/MOISTENING OCCURS...AND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST INCREASINGLY INFLUENCES THE REGION.
Quoting 853. Sfloridacat5:



That was petty bad. All day there was a huge, intense line of storms offshore in the GOM.
Then just as the line reached the coast near Tampa it just fizzled out.
It was really weird (even though it happens quite frequently). Being the heat of the day, high dew points, etc you wouldn't have thought the line would have just died like that.
What are you talking about? The line did not fizzle out, it actually held together pretty well, despite most of the dynamics to the north of the system. In fact, there was a heavy thunderstorm embedded within the line that came onshore of St. Petersburg with gusty winds. Actually, that same storm moved over MacDill AFB and the NWS in Ruskin. I was tracking it yesterday. I wish I had saved the radar loop. The line was moving really fast, so most of the west coast didn't pick up as much rain. But round 2 will come onshore again today.
Almost 2/3rds of the Current Arctic Ice extent is less than 2 meters in thickness...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
HIGH SURF WILL PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EACH DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

PAXTON
Quoting 861. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What are you talking about? The line did not fizzle out, it actually held together pretty well, despite most of the dynamics to the north of the system. In fact, there was a heavy thunderstorm embedded within the line that came onshore of St. Petersburg with gusty winds. Actually, that same storm moved over MacDill AFB and the NWS in Ruskin. I was tracking it yesterday. I wish I had saved the radar loop. The line was moving really fast, so most of the west coast didn't pick up as much rain. But round 2 will come onshore again today.


Hey buddy check out this lightning with that squall line out in the Gulf. Looks like C FL is really going to be in the cross hairs of this one. Very intense out there. in the Gulf.

LightningLink
Well after 11 days of 60% chance of rain, i can safely say the rain is over at least until thursday here in SW Alabama. Where I am, I recieved 11 inches fell between April 10th and today April 20th. Was kinda hoping for a foot, but not disappointed. 
Central & N FL added to a slight risk category and a Enhanced Risk added for the DC area.

Good Morning. The weather impacts of a frontal passage are never the same across the same region depending on where the t-storms form and the strongest cells pass through. I was blogging from work yesterday afternoon noting how "mild" the frontal passage was in downtown Tallahassee with just a few t-storms, light wind, and minimal wind gusts.

When I got home yesterday (about 20 miles north of town) afternoon, a stronger cell had come through those parts and downed a huge white oak tree in the backyard. Thankfully, it missed the house but fell on top of a row of nice Azealia bushes. You never know.
Quoting 861. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What are you talking about? The line did not fizzle out, it actually held together pretty well, despite most of the dynamics to the north of the system. In fact, there was a heavy thunderstorm embedded within the line that came onshore of St. Petersburg with gusty winds. Actually, that same storm moved over MacDill AFB and the NWS in Ruskin. I was tracking it yesterday. I wish I had saved the radar loop. The line was moving really fast, so most of the west coast didn't pick up as much rain. But round 2 will come onshore again today.


I live in Tampa and it literally rained for about 15 seconds before stopping. I received no measurable rainfall. If you don't think that line fizzled out at all when it came ashore near Tampa, I'm not sure what you are looking at.
On a related note, TWC continues to hype typical thunderstorms this week (considering the relative lack of tornado outbreaks). Was trying to watch their regular programming on Saturday evening and they kept interrupting the programming with "alerts" on run of the mill t-storms. Then, the caption along the lines of "Your Thunderstorm Central" at some point. Really a stretch and a waste of Dr. Forbes time IMHO and the forecasters talking about the "camera shaking" from wind gusts coming through Downtown Dallas..................................All I ever saw was light rain and a few flashes of lightening.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm still gonna go with maxing out as a(weak-moderate) moderate El Nio

I'm still not buying the models one bit till we get of of this model crap period and that won't be till the late part of next month going into Jun
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
What are you talking about? The line did not fizzle out, it actually held together pretty well, despite most of the dynamics to the north of the system. In fact, there was a heavy thunderstorm embedded within the line that came onshore of St. Petersburg with gusty winds. Actually, that same storm moved over MacDill AFB and the NWS in Ruskin. I was tracking it yesterday. I wish I had saved the radar loop. The line was moving really fast, so most of the west coast didn't pick up as much rain. But round 2 will come onshore again today.


Based on the radar I was watching the severe potential of that line completely dissipated as it neared the coastline. Even TWC said the same thing.
Yes some thundershowers/T storms/rain came ashore, but the intensity of the storms diminished rapidly as the line moved in.


At first glance and without the fine print in the article , those two graphics side-by side are deceptive.

A quick glance at graphics alone paints a false dire picture that carbon storage has dropped six-fold.The fine print in the article's graphic legend clearly indicates the graphics show two different animals
1) California carbon storage levels
2) Carbon storage shifts in a decade.

Glad I took the time to read further. That loss of forest contributes to more CO2 in the atmosphere is a no-brainer. Loss by fire contributes to ways.

The gist of the article... California's efforts to once again be a leader in the environmental arena.