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CSU Predicts a Quiet 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Due to Rising El Niño Odds

By: Jeff Masters 2:05 PM GMT on April 13, 2015

Another quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 9. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 92. The 2015 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (15% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (15% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 22% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season February and March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2015 hurricane season may resemble: 2014 (which featured 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); 1993 (8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); 1991, featuring Hurricane Bob, which hit Long Island, New York as a Category 2 storm; 1987 (7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane); and 1957, which featured the deadliest June hurricane on record, Hurricane Audrey, which killed 416 people in Texas and Louisiana. These five years all had at least moderate El Niño conditions and cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic. The average activity for these years was 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo was at peak strength, with 145 mph winds, and was the first Atlantic hurricane to reach sustained winds of at least 145 mph since Hurricane Igor of 2010. Gonzalo hit Bermuda just a week after Hurricane Fay hit the island, and Gonzalo's remnants went on to batter the United Kingdom on October 21 with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph, killing three people there. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be an quiet hurricane season:

1) A weak El Niño event is underway in the Eastern Pacific, and is expected to intensify by this fall (see the discussion below in this post's last paragraph.) If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. Sea surface temperatures were 0.7°C above average over the past week in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for a weak El Niño event to be declared. By August-October, most dynamical models are calling for a moderate El Niño (Niño 3.4 temperatures at least 1.0°C above average) or strong El Niño (Niño 3.4 temperatures at least 1.5°C above average). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the best prediction skill of the various El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models, and the average of the various ECMWF ensemble members is calling for a strong El Niño event by September (a Nino 3.4 SST anomaly of approximately 1.7°C.)

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were much cooler than average in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and near average in the Caribbean in March 2015. Much of this unusual cooling was due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) since November 2014. A positive phase of the NAO is associated with a strengthened Bermuda-Azores High and faster trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. The faster winds increase mixing of cool water to the surface. These cooler SSTs are associated with higher-than-normal sea level pressures which can create a self-enhancing feedback that relates to higher pressure, stronger trades and cooler SSTs during the hurricane season. Virtually all African tropical waves originate in the MDR, and these tropical waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely.

As always, they included the standard disclaimer with any quiet hurricane season outlook:

"Despite the forecast for below-average activity, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for March 2015, as computed by NOAA/ESRL. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) between Africa and Central America (red box) were well below average in the eastern Atlantic, and near average in the Caribbean.

How good are the April forecasts?
April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due on Monday, June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years. NOAA issues its first seasonal hurricane forecast for 2015 on May 27.

TSR also predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season
The April 9 forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) also calls for a quiet season, but is not as low as CSU's forecast. TSR is calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 56. The long-term averages for the past 65 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 102. TSR rates their skill level as low for these April forecasts--just 12 - 20% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 25% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 25% chance it will be near average, and a 50% chance it will be below average. They project that 2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1 of these being a hurricane. The averages from the 1950-2014 climatology are 3 named storms and 1 hurricane. They rate their skill at making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 4 - 7% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1 named storms and no hurricanes. Climatology is 1 named storm and less than 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for cooler than average SSTs and faster than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to decrease hurricane and tropical storm activity. Unlike CSU, TSR is not calling for an El Niño event this fall, which is giving them higher levels of activity in the Atlantic. They add: "Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended." The next TSR forecast will be issued on May 27.

WSI predicts a quiet Atlantic hurricane season
The April 13 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane. WSi cites the expectation of El Niño conditions to be present this fall as the reason for reducing their expected Atlantic hurricane season numbers from last month's forecast, which called for 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.

NOAA increases El Niño odds to 60% for the fall
NOAA's monthly El Niño update issued on April 9 gives increased odds that the current weak El Niño event in the equatorial Eastern Pacific will stick around into fall. NOAA is now giving a 70% chance of El Niño lasting through summer, up from their 50 - 60% odds they gave a month ago. They give a 60% chance that El Niño will last though the fall. However, in a March 31 update, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) cautioned: “Model outlooks spanning February to May . . . have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year. Some models currently show some spread in their outlooks for tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, indicating that while further warming is indeed very likely, there remains some ambiguity about the amount of warming expected.” In his April 9 post, Wunderblogger Steve Gregory gave a 70% El Niño continuing into this winter, with a 30% chance that we would see a strong El Niño event.

Jeff Masters

Atmospheric Phenomena El Niño Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. Neapolitan:

As has been said here many, many times already, California's previous droughts happened when there were few if any humans in the state. There are now close to 40 million living there, and many hundreds of millions more reliant to some degree on things grown or designed or manufactured there. It's thus foolish and inane to continually toss out comments like, "It's happened before, so no big deal."

Not that being foolish or inane has ever stopped anyone... :)

Unfortunately you missed the point of my post which was to give respect to a scientist where respect is due...
He has earned it.
It's thus foolish and inane to continually toss out comments like, "It's never happened before"
Quoting 468. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS continues to show a high pressure building into the Gulf Coast starting this weekend across Texas and then over to Florida early next week.

This could give the Gulf Coast (the areas getting all the rain) a break from the rain for a few days.



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1056 am EDT Tuesday Apr 14 2015


Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
the unsettled pattern will continue over the area with temperature
and humidity levels remaining above seasonal levels. The western
trough will evolve into a cut-off low over New Mexico on Friday and
this feature will move east across the Southern Plains on Saturday
before opening up and lifting northeastward early next week. There
remain significant model differences in how surface features with
this system develop/evolve over the plains. The latest GFS run
backed off its more progressive pattern from the 18z run and now
delays any drying until after the end of this forecast. Therefore,
look for more of the same atypical April weather with above normal
temperatures and probability of precipitation through the period.
Quoting Abacosurf:

Unfortunately you missed the point of my post which was to give respect to a scientist where respect is due...
He's earned it.
Oh, I see. Well, if it's about respecting a deserving scientist, I'd say that would best be shown by respecting the scientific method itself, and acknowledging the truth of climate change. That NASA report to which Dr. Cook contributed states that "precipitation deficits observed during the past three years are an order of magnitude greater than the model simulated changes related to human-induced forcing." IOW, things are even worse than forecast. And the report goes on to state, "...record setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming."

So, bottom line: the drought has indeed been made worse by mankind's activities.

Now *that's* how you respect a scientist...
Much drier today than yesterday at his time for the Fl penisula.
Quoting 504. Neapolitan:

Oh, I see. Well, if it's about respecting a deserving scientist, I'd say that would best be shown by respecting the scientific method itself, and acknowledging the truth of climate change. That NASA report to which Dr. Cook contributed states that "precipitation deficits observed during the past three years are an order of magnitude greater than the model simulated changes related to human-induced forcing." IOW, things are even worse than forecast. And the report goes on to state, "...record setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming."

So, bottom line: the drought has indeed been made worse by mankind's activities.

Now *that's* how you respect a scientist...
Thanks!!! Thats was my point!! Good job Nea!!!
New Orleans, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


508. yoboi
Quoting 500. Neapolitan:

As has been said here many, many times already, California's previous droughts happened when there were few if any humans in the state. There are now close to 40 million living there, and many hundreds of millions more reliant to some degree on things grown or designed or manufactured there. It's thus foolish and inane to continually toss out comments like, "It's happened before, so no big deal."

Not that being foolish or inane has ever stopped anyone... :)


Your emotional triad should be applaudable....but climate & weather has no feelings...
Quoting 498. ACSeattle:


Source?
JB at WB.
...datz no Moon'


Quoting 509. NativeSun:

JB at WB.


Jim Beam @ Willy's Bar?
Quoting 511. Patrap:



Jim Beam @ Willy's Bar?


Make it a double...
Quoting 497. NativeSun:

With the PDO turning cold in the near future, I wouldn't expect an above normal season their either.
Actually the PDO is turning warmer, Native. If anything the EPAC would benefit more than the Atlantic, in terms of quantity of storms.





1983 Pacific Hurricane Season:



Season's total:
21 Tropical Storms
12 Hurricanes
8 Major Hurricanes

1983 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



Season's total:
4 Tropical Storms
3 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricane (Alicia, which made landfall in Texas as a Category 3 Hurricane)
Quoting 511. Patrap:



Jim Beam @ Willy's Bar?
I'll have one on the rocks!
Quoting 511. Patrap:



Jim Beam @ Willy's Bar?


I wish, but i'm still not 21. :(
That day isn't too far off now, bwahaha!
Quoting 399. StormTrackerScott:

Patrap needs to put on his glasses and grab a cup of coffee so that here can go back and read the post from this morning as I mention to whole southern US not just FL. Geesh. Old and crabby I guess.

Scott, Stop the elder abuse. I do not have you on ignore as I like your weather analysis, but when you stoop this low brow mockery of another blogger, you read like another narcissistic adolescent basement dweller.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1056 am EDT Tuesday Apr 14 2015


Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
the unsettled pattern will continue over the area with temperature
and humidity levels remaining above seasonal levels. The western
trough will evolve into a cut-off low over New Mexico on Friday and
this feature will move east across the Southern Plains on Saturday
before opening up and lifting northeastward early next week. There
remain significant model differences in how surface features with
this system develop/evolve over the plains. The latest GFS run
backed off its more progressive pattern from the 18z run and now
delays any drying until after the end of this forecast. Therefore,
look for more of the same atypical April weather with above normal
temperatures and probability of precipitation through the period.


Yes, the front isn't expected until Tuesday in Florida (if it comes).
So it should be wet until at least then.

But we should see some drying out in Texas starting this weekend and then down into Florida around Tuesday next week (if the front makes it down into Florida).

The don't think the front will have a problem drying out the northern Gulf Coast.
I just don't know if it will make it down into Florida yet.
Quoting 503. opal92nwf:


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1056 am EDT Tuesday Apr 14 2015


Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
the unsettled pattern will continue over the area with temperature
and humidity levels remaining above seasonal levels. The western
trough will evolve into a cut-off low over New Mexico on Friday and
this feature will move east across the Southern Plains on Saturday
before opening up and lifting northeastward early next week. There
remain significant model differences in how surface features with
this system develop/evolve over the plains. The latest GFS run
backed off its more progressive pattern from the 18z run and now
delays any drying until after the end of this forecast. Therefore,
look for more of the same atypical April weather with above normal
temperatures and probability of precipitation through the period.



Euro is not wavering on any prospects of drying across FL. well see how it goes as the 12Z GFS slowed its progression with next week's front. well see but I suspect the Euro is right because the Southern Jet is really cranking right now.
According to this, quite a bit of rain has fallen in the last 6 hours in St. Mary Parish.


(Source)
Quoting 516. Pipejazz:


Scott, Stop the elder abuse. I do not have you on ignore as I like your weather analysis, but when you stoop this low brow mockery of another blogger, you read like another narcissistic adolescent basement dweller.


Maybe you need to direct this at patrap as the guy came on with a rude tone this morning. Guy comes on with such a rude comment and thinks someone is just going to take I mean really come on.
We're having the spring version of a nor easter.Windy rainy and dreary.
Here is Houston's forecast from the NWS. There will definitely be a front, but will the front make it down into Florida?

FridayA 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Friday NightA 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

SaturdayA 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Saturday NightA 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

SundayMostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Sunday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 63.

MondayMostly sunny, with a high near 80.
The current drought in California is the worst the state has seen in at least 1,200 years, according to a study published by the American Geophysical Union.

How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

Based on our NOAA-NADA composite PDSI record, we estimate that 2014 is the worst single drought year of at least the last ∼1200 years in California (Figure 1). Taking into account the uncertainties in scaling the NADA tree ring data to the instrumental PDSI, 6 years were possibly similar to or drier than 2014, (including 1580, 1782, 1829, and 1841 CE) at the 1σ level, while 36 years out of the last 1215 years include the 2014 value within 2σ uncertainty. Three year droughts are not unusual over the last millennium in California and they can occur with as little as a single year between negative moisture anomalies (Figure 3a). Over the last 1200 years, we estimate that there are 37 occurrences of 3 year droughts and a total of 66 uninterrupted dry periods (e.g., every year below the 800 to 2014 mean) lasting between 3 and 9 years. We estimate that ∼44% of 3 year droughts go on to last 4 years or longer. However, the 2012–2014 drought stands out in the context of the last millennium. In terms of cumulative severity, it is the worst drought on record (−14.55 cumulative PDSI), more extreme than longer (4 to 9 year) droughts. Considering only drought episodes defined by at least three consecutive years all lower than −2 PDSI, only three such events occur in the last 1200 years, and 2012–2014 is the most severe of these.


Figure 1. (a) Regional mean North American Drought Atlas (NADA) PDSI for Central and Southern California (33°N to 38°N and 118°W to 125°W; black line) and instrumental June through August NOAA Climate Division 4–7 PDSI (solid red line) for the observational period 1895 to 2014 [Vose et al., 2014]. The JJA season is chosen to match the NADA reconstruction target. Uncertainty (1σ) calculated as the root-mean-squared error from the residual fit of the NADA to the instrumental series shown as the shaded gray region. The red line and star indicate the 2014 value. (b) Distribution of the composite NADA-NOAA JJA PDSI values for the period 800 to 2014. The 2014 value is indicated by the red line and is labeled. (c) Long-term (800 to 2014) composite NADA-NOAA (black line) and instrumental (solid red line) PDSI. The horizontal dashed red line and star indicate the 2014 value. Uncertainty on the composite calculated as the root-mean-squared error from the residual fit of the NADA to the NOAA instrumental series shown as light (2σ) and dark (1σ) shaded gray regions.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Much drier today than yesterday at his time for the Fl penisula.
It's currently 91 with a dewpoint of 73 here in SE Alabama. There are a large number of thunderstorms starting to initiate south and west of me and the sky is filled with cumulus congestus. Today is the first day of the current siege I think we could actually get some significant storms and rain this far east.
Quoting 522. Sfloridacat5:

Here is Houston's forecast from the NWS. There will definitely be a front, but will the front make it down into Florida?

FridayA 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Friday NightA 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

SaturdayA 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Saturday NightA 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

SundayMostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Sunday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 63.

MondayMostly sunny, with a high near 80.


Euro is forecasting some serious rainfall across C FL the next 10 days. If this Euro verifies then its possible that Orlando could make a run at one of the wettest April's ever at 9". I think we might have shot again it all hinges if the Euro is indeed right as this model is not wavering.

Again that is IF key word IF the Euro stays the way it is.
Quoting 521. washingtonian115:

We're having the spring version of a nor easter.Windy rainy and dreary.

We've got rainy and dreary. Had thunder that shook my windows this morning, some lightning, no wind, though. But definitely very wet and dreary. Looks like we're getting more of the same as the week goes on...
Euro is not messing around. Model shows a serious amount of rain across FL especially C FL. This is going to get interesting if these trends on the Euro continue.

Quoting 521. washingtonian115:

We're having the spring version of a nor easter.Windy rainy and dreary.
clear blue sky with a little cloud to my south temps around 62 right now not a bad day at all up here

but rain showers and even cooler temps are coming for later in the week starting tomorrow
From the Miami discussion.
They feel that if the front stays to the north (ECMWF), South Florida should see less rain.

If the front can get down into South Florida (GFS), then rain chances will increase.

BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN, WHICH WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO DIFFER
WITH HOW FAST IT WEAKENS. THE GFS HAS IT WEAKEN QUICKER, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AND STALLS IT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HIGHER
POPS TO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO HAS A FRONT, BUT IT KEEPS IT
WELL TO THE NORTH, PERHAPS JUST GETTING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
WOULD BE THE DRIER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW, FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS IT WEAKEN QUICKER, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AND STALLS IT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HIGHER
POPS TO THE REGION


lol....forget it sf......you're the new desert region......as i think i'm ahead of you for the month in rainfall
470. Abacosurf

So are you saying that E.R. Cook Put out a bogus article with his depiction of 200 year mega-droughts back in the 1st millenium AD?

Not all , but heat and drought while thought of as one, are two different things. As witnessed by the South Pole, one of the driest places on Earth. Or the Younger Dryas (cold and drought).

What makes this drought special is it's being turbo charged by record high temperatures in the West for 3 years running. And these record high temperatures are occurring at ever higher altitudes. That's what I'm saying.
Unprecedented Early Start to ‘Perma-Burn’ Fire Season — Deadly Wildfires Rage Through Siberia on April 12

Permafrost. Ground frozen for millennia. An enormous deposit of organic carbon forming a thick, peat-like under-layer.

Forced to warm at an unprecedented rate through the massive burning of heat-trapping gasses by human beings, this layer is now rapidly thawing, providing an amazing source of heat and fuel for wildfire ignition.

Joe Romm over at Climate Progress has long called this region ‘Permamelt.’ But, with a doubling of the number of wildfires for the high Arctic and an extension of the permafrost fire season into early April this year, we may well consider this to be a zone of now, near permanent, burning — Permaburn.


Link
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
From the Miami discussion.
They feel that if the front stays to the north (ECMWF), South Florida should see less rain.

If the front can get down into South Florida (GFS), then rain chances will increase.

BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN, WHICH WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO DIFFER
WITH HOW FAST IT WEAKENS. THE GFS HAS IT WEAKEN QUICKER, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AND STALLS IT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HIGHER
POPS TO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO HAS A FRONT, BUT IT KEEPS IT
WELL TO THE NORTH, PERHAPS JUST GETTING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
WOULD BE THE DRIER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW, FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
Just using persistence rather than models, the last two fronts have stalled more or less over or just south of the Panhandle. I don't think this front is any stronger than the previous two so it seems likely this will be a repeat performance. The stalled front will start to lift north over the weekend as a warm front and then we start into this pattern all over again. What's likely to happen is we will get periods of drying between the shortwaves that will travel the front, which should keep the overall flood threat under control.
Quoting 437. tampabaymatt:



April has not been wet for me in Tampa. Only 0.59" so far this month.
Nary a drop by me on the other side of the Gandy bridge. Next week looks promising though.
Quoting 477. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I see two eyes when I look into the mirror


Sometimes I see three when I look in the mirror...
Quoting sar2401:
Just using persistence rather than models, the last two fronts have stalled more or less over or just south of the Panhandle. I don't think this front is any stronger than the previous two so it seems likely this will be a repeat performance. The stalled front will start to lift north over the weekend as a warm front and then we start into this pattern all over again. What's likely to happen is we will get periods of drying between the shortwaves that will travel the front, which should keep the overall flood threat under control.


That wouldn't be good for South Fl.

As far as today is concerned I waiting for the sea breeze to fire off some storms here in S.W. Florida.
We have a pretty good S.E. flow across southern Florida with a S.W. sea breeze conversion in my area. Beautiful blue sky at the moment though.
I would think we'd get some action going with this setup. Dewpoints are really up there.
Mostly Cloudy

87°F

31°C
Humidity 59%
Wind Speed S 12 mph
Barometer 30.07 in (1018.0 mb)
Dewpoint 71°F (22°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 93°F (34°C)
Last update on 14 Apr 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather




Very warm and humid today, but with the breeze blowing I don't mind it, like humid weather if it's in the 80's and with a breeze, has a nice tropical feel. This is probably the most tropical spring I've seen in Florida in a while, the tourism industry has to be doing great with all the warmth and sun.
Sometimes I see three when I look in the mirror...


the day i see three eyes when i look in the mirror.....is the last day i look into the mirror
Quoting 530. ricderr:

THE GFS HAS IT WEAKEN QUICKER, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AND STALLS IT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HIGHER
POPS TO THE REGION


lol....forget it sf......you're the new desert region......as i think i'm ahead of you for the month in rainfall


Well El Paso averages practically a 1/5 of the rain south Florida does, so while there can be differences in short term weather, overall the averages will prevail, and for the most part, you'll keep drinking out of Elephant butte like while Floridians have more swamp and watery land to know what do with... lol
our good friends the aussie mets....still don't believe el nino conditions have been met


Tropical Pacific Ocean primed for El Niño in 2015
Issued on 14 April 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The chances of El Niño occurring in 2015 have increased. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than average, and all models surveyed suggest further ocean warming will occur. As a result, the ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring this year.
Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Niño levels. Large areas of warmer-than-average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean. See the latest climate outlook.
Next update expected on 28 April 2015 | print version
Quoting 540. ricderr:

Sometimes I see three when I look in the mirror...


the day i see three eyes when i look in the mirror.....is the last day i look into the mirror


I guess you don't have people sneaking up on you.
big deal in the talk of SOI.....for quite some time the general rule has been 8 above or below for el nino or la nina...now they have changed it to plus or minus 7 respectively


Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable over the past two weeks, with values exceeding El Niño thresholds. The latest 30-day SOI value to 12 April is −10.2. The monthly value for March was −11.2.
Fluctuations of the SOI associated with the passage of tropical systems near Darwin or Tahiti are common during the first quarter of the year; it remains to be seen whether recent values of the SOI are a result of transient tropical weather systems, or a more sustained shift towards El Niño-like conditions.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
launch successful live feed remove
Quoting 527. StormTrackerScott:

Euro is not messing around. Model shows a serious amount of rain across FL especially C FL. This is going to get interesting if these trends on the Euro continue.




Hopefully, because while the inland and eastern areas of Central Florida have had a soaking, the sea breeze pattern has brought nothing to the west coastal areas of the state. My parents rain gauge has had 0.00 for April so far, and that's highly representative of other west coastal areas of the state. So that pattern is well needed for the west coast of Florida, and heres to hoping the GFS comes in line with the ecmwf and that the ecmwf trend continues.

The only problem is while the west coast needs it bad, that the same pattern will bring a lot of rain for the inland and eastern areas too, and with this active sea breeze pattern continuing most areas east of the dry west coast will be saturated and probably have flooding issues if that pattern continues. Can't say most would be too upset in April of a little flooding as long as it's not destructive considering it's usually a dry month.
I guess you don't have people sneaking up on you.


nahhhh...home is quite peaceful........
Quoting 546. Jedkins01:



Hopefully, because while the inland and eastern areas of Central Florida have had a soaking, the sea breeze pattern has brought nothing to the west coastal areas of the state. My parents rain gauge has had 0.00 for April so far, and that's highly representative of other west coastal areas of the state. So that pattern is well needed for the west coast of Florida, and heres to hoping the GFS comes in line with the ecmwf and that the ecmwf trend continues.

The only problem is while the west coast needs it bad, that the same pattern will bring a lot of rain for the inland and eastern areas too, and with this active sea breeze pattern continuing most areas east of the dry west coast will be saturated and probably have flooding issues if that pattern continues. Can't say most would be too upset in April of a little flooding as long as it's not destructive considering it's usually a dry month.


If the Euro pans out the West Coast of FL could be in for 2" to 4" of rain in general with amounts closer to 6" in some areas that see training of cells. That is what the Euro is showing early next week. However on the flip side the GFS shows nothing. I suspect the Euro is again right but well see. It all hinges on this upper low out west.
Quoting 457. jpsb:



Oh really? I suggest that you google "superstorm sandy" + "climate change"


Might I suggest you get get your information from actual reviewed science instead of sensationalistic nonsense? Climate influences weather events, but weather is dominated by SHORT TERM conditions. Climate change can make things more likely to happen. Climate change can influence extremes. But ultimately climate is about LONG TERM trends and probabilities.

To illustrate, lets say you have two six sided dice. Weather is a single roll of the dice. Climate is the probability distribution of the dice after, say, 1000 rolls.

Now take those same dice and weight them. Lets say you weight the dice so that values greater than three on either one are more likely to come up. Does that mean you won't roll snake eyes? No. It just means it is now less likely because the dice are weighted. In other words, weighting causes a change in the probability distribution. That's climate change.

So now let's say you do 1000 rolls with the weighted dice. At the end, you average the values together and see that the average value of the weighted dice is higher than that of the unweighted dice. No real surprise there; you expected that to happen. But now try and go back through those 1000 rolls and pick out the rolls that were definitely caused by the weighting of the dice vs. those that would occur naturally. That's a much much more difficult problem to solve.

That's why you don't see thousands of scientific papers trying to link every single extreme weather events to climate change. It's exceptionally difficult to do. You'll find plenty of papers on likelihoods, values, influences, etc. but direct attribution is very rare and requires a considerable amount of evidence to substantiate.

Quoting 527. StormTrackerScott:

Euro is not messing around. Model shows a serious amount of rain across FL especially C FL. This is going to get interesting if these trends on the Euro continue.




Thank God. I've had 90% chance of rain for the past 4 days and it hasn't rained YET...
Maybe it'll come.
551. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu though colours seen here are NOT a Colorado Product.
SUBJECT:: Observing activities in N GoMx.
D&T:: On anigif
image host


just updated
just updated

i'm in the color zone....a tenth of an inch.....WHOOHOOOOOOOO
554. vis0
quick get radar's ear muffs
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


If the Euro pans out the West Coast of FL could be in for 2" to 4" of rain in general with amounts closer to 6" in some areas that see training of cells. That is what the Euro is showing early next week. However on the flip side the GFS shows nothing. I suspect the Euro is again right but well see. It all hinges on this upper low out west.


GFS does show some heavy rain on Monday working down the state.
But then everything dries out on Tuesday.

Although ENSO models would lead you to believe we're headed full throttle toward a strong El Nino, short-term forecasts disagree. The GFS forecast for low-level trade winds across the equatorial Pacific look westerly, but not too anomalously strong, over the next week.

A slow warming trend is likely.

Quoting 555. Sfloridacat5:



GFS does show some heavy rain on Monday working down the state.
But then everything dries out on Tuesday.




Difference is the Euro has a surface wave in the Gulf. Both Eureo and GFS has the same thru early Monday then quickly diverge there after.
Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:



Difference is the Euro has a surface wave in the Gulf. Both Eureo and GFS has the same thru early Monday then quickly diverge there after.




Local mets in Tampa seem to think a front will move through early next week.
Jus saw a Duck with Family using their UBER App, it rained so Hard here.
Gorgeous shot of the West Coast Sea Breeze pushing inland with storms firing on the boundary.

Tampa/ST. Pete
dooom

Small "d"

Quoting 556. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Although ENSO models would lead you to believe we're headed full throttle toward a strong El Nino, short-term forecasts disagree. The GFS forecast for low-level trade winds across the equatorial Pacific look westerly, but not too anomalously strong, over the next week.


Hey, TA, or someone else with special NINO-knowledge, may I ask a question: Does the full development of an El Nino require further westerlies in the equatorial region of the WPAC? And if yes, where? In the 3.4. region or finally as well in the regions 1 and 2? Should the easterly trade winds reverse for some time over the whole region?
I've watched earthwind for a while now, but - apart from some outbreaks of westerlies far west earlier - I rarely see any westerlies further to the East.
Quoting 556. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Although ENSO models would lead you to believe we're headed full throttle toward a strong El Nino, short-term forecasts disagree. The GFS forecast for low-level trade winds across the equatorial Pacific look westerly, but not too anomalously strong, over the next week.

A slow warming trend is likely.




Well strong enough to upwell all this sub surface warm water infact it looks like Moderate El-Nino conditions are coming very soon as Nino 3.4 is now at 0.8C and climbing.

New Orleans, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

TSR is calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes

Coincidentally this is what I picked also
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice · 4h 4 hours ago
The Thermocline now deepest EAST of the Date Line as a massive downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave surfaces @WSI_Energy

That quacked me up.

Quoting 559. Patrap:

Jus saw a Duck with Family using their UBER App, it rained so Hard here.
I think that is my pick too, win...

Quoting 566. win1gamegiantsplease:

TSR is calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes

Coincidentally this is what I picked also
Quiet Atlantic hurricane season should mean a busy Pacific season and strange things happening in the weather department with this El Nino pattern forecasted. Plenty to watch.
Quoting vis0:
quick get radar's ear muffs
LOL. So far, Radar Dog is only showing mild interest in the storms to the south and west. The big bloberoo is headed toward Montgomery while there are only scattered and disorganized storms to the south. At 87 degrees and a 74 degree dewpoint the conditions are near ideal for storms. Of course, the conditions have been near ideal for three days, so we'll see what actually happens.
Quoting 569. nonblanche:



Normally a livestream playing thing embedded here would bug the heck out of me. But I got to watch! It was awesome. Thank you. I can't watch any of the space launches without getting a little weepy; I must be old. :)


Resupplying the ISS is one thing. Can you imagine the logistical nightmare of doing the same thing for Mars colonists? Anyone who signs up for that supreme folly deserves their certain Darwin award.
Quoting yoboi:


Great analogy....So is this scientist at this table??:0

No, that scientist is at that other table. Did you even read or understand the post that you so flippantly replied to?
Quoting 569. nonblanche:



Normally a livestream playing thing embedded here would bug the heck out of me. But I got to watch! It was awesome. Thank you. I can't watch any of the space launches without getting a little weepy; I must be old. :)
your welcome I figured it would not be a problem good launch no doubt hopefully a good hook up to iss Friday morning
Quoting 563. barbamz:


Hey, TA, or someone else with special NINO-knowledge, may I ask a question: Does the full development of an El Nino require further westerlies in the equatorial region of the WPAC? And if yes, where? In the 3.4. region or finally as well in the regions 1 and 2? Should the easterly trade winds reverse for some time over the whole region?
I've watched earthwind for a while now, but - apart from some outbreaks of westerlies far west earlier - I rarely see any westerlies further to the East.

El Ninos start in the West Pacific. Westerly wind bursts, which are exactly what they sound like, generate downwelling kelvin waves in which warmer West Pacific surface ocean temperatures are pushed into the subsurface. Provided that westerly winds continue, the anomalously warm subsurface warm pool will continue to grow as the kelvin wave moves eastward. Eventually, this subsurface warm pool surfaces across the equatorial East Pacific. For a maintained and strong El Nino, we want basin-wide westerly anomalies. If trade winds are easterly across the equatorial East Pacific, cooler waters from the subsurface are upwelled, and ENSO regions cool as a result.

Westerly winds have been persistent and at times very strong near and west of the Date Line, but weak and non-continuous across the Central and East Pacific, so that's why it might be hard to see consistently on the wind map.
Exploration is not for the faint hearted,

Re-supply isnt a Mars Mission Issue.

Funding is.

And the recent discoveries of more water is a game changer.

Its the heaviest of all needed Human supplies.
I wonder when was the last time the MDR was this cold relative to average? 2009 maybe? My original prediction was 8-4-1 but I wouldn't be surprised if we struggle to reach 5 storms. Also would not be surprised if the East Pac exhausts the alphabet.



Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Thank God. I've had 90% chance of rain for the past 4 days and it hasn't rained YET...
Maybe it'll come.
I've got you beat. It was 100% for me and I haven't gotten any rain. I'm still waiting. However, this does show the impossibility of forecasts ever getting it right for just one place. The WPC can broad brush areas of likely precipitation, and those large areas are likely to be right. Those of us unlucky enough to be in places where the atmosphere doesn't cooperate end up not getting anything. That's the problem with looking at model 7-10 days out and thinking any single area is actually going to get what's depicted.
In 92' the A storm dint form till mid to later August.

It that happens in 2015, the wu suicide rate should increase 100%.

How did that 92' A storm make out Landfall wise?
Quoting 577. Patrap:

Exploration is not for the faint hearted,

Re-supply isnt a Mars Mission Issue.

Funding is.

And the recent discoveries of more water is a game changer.

Its the heaviest of all needed Human supplies.


No, that's oxygen. I've seen some comments from supremely optimistic types that the required oxygen could be split from mined Mars water. Beggars belief.
#576. Thanks TA, that's what I've wanted to know. So we should keep watching out for westerlies bassin wide in the equatorial region (I wondered earlier whether the subsurface travel of the warm blob of water towards the east would need the enhancement by surface winds to reach its goal).
Quoting yoboi:


Yes and I told them it was a great analogy...maybe you missed that part of my reply??
No, I didn't miss that part, but the picture and the rest of the reply was snarky. If say you actually understand the difference between climate and weather, and the difficulty of attributing any single event to climate change, your typical postings don't lead me to believe you do. I'm sure there's another blog somewhere that has something from 2005 that will help muddy the waters though.
Mars has 02 in quanities there to support life. One only has to compress and chill it from frozen CO2 or the sparse atmosphere.

And one can use that 02 to make Fuel for Spacecraft.

So thats a falsehood.

Quoting yonzabam:


No, that's oxygen. I've seen some comments from supremely optimistic types that the required oxygen could be split from mined Mars water. Beggars belief.
Especially since we don't know that the substance we assume is H20 is really there and in what quantities. There's a big difference between sitting on Earth and saying what we believe is true and getting people there to find out if it's really true.
Quoting nonblanche:


Normally a livestream playing thing embedded here would bug the heck out of me. But I got to watch! It was awesome. Thank you. I can't watch any of the space launches without getting a little weepy; I must be old. :)
Are you old enough to have watched the first moon landing live? Talk about a tear jerker...
Streams that play automatically should be outlawed.
Oxygen-Generating Mars Rover to Bring Colonization Closer
By Mike Wall, Senior Writer | August 01, 2014 07:33am ET



"This is a real step forward in helping future human exploration of Mars by being able to produce your oxygen on the surface of Mars," Michael Meyer, lead scientist for the Mars Exploration Program at NASA headquarters in Washington, D.C., told reporters Thursday.

Breathable air and rocket fuel

The instrument is known as MOXIE (Mars Oxygen In-Situ Resources Utilization Experiment). It will pull carbon dioxide from the thin Martian atmosphere, which is composed of about 96 percent CO2, and turn it into pure oxygen and carbon monoxide, said Michael Hecht of MIT, the instrument's principal investigator.

NASA's Mars 2020 rover mission will carry an innovative instrument called MOXIE aimed at demonstration the potential of resource utilization on the Red Planet. MOXIE ( Mars Oxygen ISRU Experiment) is designed to create oxygen using Mars' native carbon dioPin It NASA's Mars 2020 rover mission will carry an innovative instrument called MOXIE aimed at demonstration the potential of resource utilization on the Red Planet. MOXIE ( Mars Oxygen ISRU Experiment) is designed to create oxygen using Mars' native carbon dioxide.
Credit: NASAView full size image
"This is essentially a fuel cell run in reverse," he said. (Hecht added that CO2 is often a product of fuel cells, which generate electricity from fuels such as hydrogen.)

NASA has made demonstrating this capability a key priority, as the agency aims to put boots on Mars in the 2030s and wants its pioneering human outpost to be as self-sufficient as possible. (Decreasing or eliminating the need for oxygen resupply from Earth would also cut costs, of course.)

In a future manned mission, astronauts would breathe some of the oxygen produced on the Red Planet. But much of the gas would be stored for use as an oxidizer, helping burn the rocket fuel that would launch spacecraft from the surface of Mars back to Earth, Hecht said.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Streams that play automatically should be outlawed.
I agree. There's an easy way to stop all autoplay streams here. I've been using it for a couple of years and it works great. No more heavy metal leaping out of my speakers by surprise at 0-dark-thirty. :-)
Quoting ricderr:
our good friends the aussie mets....still don't believe el nino conditions have been met


Tropical Pacific Ocean primed for El Niño in 2015
Issued on 14 April 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The chances of El Niño occurring in 2015 have increased. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than average, and all models surveyed suggest further ocean warming will occur. As a result, the ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring this year.
Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Niño levels. Large areas of warmer-than-average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean. See the latest climate outlook.
Next update expected on 28 April 2015 | print version
You'd think this kind of thing wouldn't be that hard to get the world to agree on...
Quoting 590. sar2401:

I agree. There's an easy way to stop all autoplay streams here. I've been using it for a couple of years and it works great. No more heavy metal leaping out of my speakers by surprise at 0-dark-thirty. :-)

Thank you! I didn't know there was a way to do this without muting everything.
Quoting 590. sar2401:

I agree. There's an easy way to stop all autoplay streams here. I've been using it for a couple of years and it works great. No more heavy metal leaping out of my speakers by surprise at 0-dark-thirty. :-)


Not much of a fan of metal eh?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

El Ninos start in the West Pacific. Westerly wind bursts, which are exactly what they sound like, generate downwelling kelvin waves in which warmer West Pacific surface ocean temperatures are pushed into the subsurface. Provided that westerly winds continue, the anomalously warm subsurface warm pool will continue to grow as the kelvin wave moves eastward. Eventually, this subsurface warm pool surfaces across the equatorial East Pacific. For a maintained and strong El Nino, we want basin-wide westerly anomalies. If trade winds are easterly across the equatorial East Pacific, cooler waters from the subsurface are upwelled, and ENSO regions cool as a result.

Westerly winds have been persistent and at times very strong near and west of the Date Line, but weak and non-continuous across the Central and East Pacific, so that's why it might be hard to see consistently on the wind map.


A bona fide El Nino forming and continuing seems likely. But a strong or super Nino not so much. ;)
Quoting 585. Patrap:

Mars has 02 in quanities there to support life. One only has to compress and chill it from frozen CO2 or the sparse atmosphere.

And one can use that 02 to make Fuel for Spacecraft.

So thats a falsehood.




The problem with Mars is it's lack of magnetic field. Mars will never be hospitable for this reason, that allows the sun to obliterate any atmosphere, whether induced by natural processes, or artificially by humans. If we want humans on Mars they'll need some sort of a shielded biosphere base to keep a hospitable environment while also keeping the colony safe from radiation from the sun and space debris. It could be done, but sense the same thing could be done on the Moon, we should have a moon colony way before we have a Mars one.
Quoting 511. Patrap:



Grand Marnier @ Willy's Bar?
Quoting 552. tampabaymatt:



just updated


It'll be interesting to see what happens because storms had seriously underperformed in Southeast USA this year.
Quoting 558. tampabaymatt:





Local mets in Tampa seem to think a front will move through early next week.


I think the local MET's at Bay news 9 are going a little overboard. Seems to me it's more likely for a wetter more humid pattern through the period, or at the very least a blend between the two. I highly doubt it will occur as a sharp noticeable frontal passage as they depict there. The skepticism and uncertainty mentioned in the discussion in Ruskin makes a lot more sense.

It's funny because the local MET's here in Tallahassee are skeptical the clouds and moisture will even clear Tallahassee, much less a sharp clear through Tampa, and I agree. Not saying it won't happen, but it seems unlikely.
Quoting 580. sar2401:

I've got you beat. It was 100% for me and I haven't gotten any rain. I'm still waiting. However, this does show the impossibility of forecasts ever getting it right for just one place. The WPC can broad brush areas of likely precipitation, and those large areas are likely to be right. Those of us unlucky enough to be in places where the atmosphere doesn't cooperate end up not getting anything. That's the problem with looking at model 7-10 days out and thinking any single area is actually going to get what's depicted.


Yeah the WPC has done well for the northern gulf coastal precip forecast amounts but has been terrible for areas north of there. They seem to have a crazy bias with moisture return when the moist unstable flow is clearly being cut off. They haven't seemed to learn from this trend the last few days though. As they've already had to trim back some of the massive 4-5 inch QPF in northern Mississippi, and I'm sure they'll be forced to in Alabama too. I'm not sure how they conclude that broad brushing of such huge QPF totals like that is appropriate when the event hasn't and isn't taking place in a way that supports that.
Quoting 595. Jedkins01:



The problem with Mars is it's lack of magnetic field. Mars will never be hospitable for this reason, that allows the sun to obliterate any atmosphere, whether induced by natural processes, or artificially by humans. If we want humans on Mars they'll need some sort of a shielded biosphere base to keep a hospitable environment while also keeping the colony safe from radiation from the sun and space debris. It could be done, but sense the same thing could be done on the Moon, we should have a moon colony way before we have a Mars one.


it would have to become underground


mars underground

bet there is ice there too

which turns too water

and will offer protection from everything except direct impact
Quoting 578. MAweatherboy1:

I wonder when was the last time the MDR was this cold relative to average? 2009 maybe? My original prediction was 8-4-1 but I wouldn't be surprised if we struggle to reach 5 storms. Also would not be surprised if the East Pac exhausts the alphabet.






But there could be some brutal home grown systems if there is a period of low shear, water temps in the gulf are practically off the charts for this time of year. The MDR might impact numbers but it doesn't mean the danger for the U.S. is lower, especially given the well above normal temps so far in all the waters off the coast of the southeast.
Quoting 595. Jedkins01:



The problem with Mars is it's lack of magnetic field. Mars will never be hospitable for this reason, that allows the sun to obliterate any atmosphere, whether induced by natural processes, or artificially by humans. If we want humans on Mars they'll need some sort of a shielded biosphere base to keep a hospitable environment while also keeping the colony safe from radiation from the sun and space debris. It could be done, but sense the same thing could be done on the Moon, we should have a moon colony way before we have a Mars one.
I read something interesting on CNN about the Mars rover finding water beneath mars surface,,there's more to the story of course just scan thru cnn,very interesting reading.
Quoting 589. Patrap:

Oxygen-Generating Mars Rover to Bring Colonization Closer
By Mike Wall, Senior Writer | August 01, 2014 07:33am ET



"This is a real step forward in helping future human exploration of Mars by being able to produce your oxygen on the surface of Mars," Michael Meyer, lead scientist for the Mars Exploration Program at NASA headquarters in Washington, D.C., told reporters Thursday.

Breathable air and rocket fuel

The instrument is known as MOXIE (Mars Oxygen In-Situ Resources Utilization Experiment). It will pull carbon dioxide from the thin Martian atmosphere, which is composed of about 96 percent CO2, and turn it into pure oxygen and carbon monoxide, said Michael Hecht of MIT, the instrument's principal investigator.

NASA's Mars 2020 rover mission will carry an innovative instrument called MOXIE aimed at demonstration the potential of resource utilization on the Red Planet. MOXIE ( Mars Oxygen ISRU Experiment) is designed to create oxygen using Mars' native carbon dioPin It NASA's Mars 2020 rover mission will carry an innovative instrument called MOXIE aimed at demonstration the potential of resource utilization on the Red Planet. MOXIE ( Mars Oxygen ISRU Experiment) is designed to create oxygen using Mars' native carbon dioxide.
Credit: NASAView full size image
"This is essentially a fuel cell run in reverse," he said. (Hecht added that CO2 is often a product of fuel cells, which generate electricity from fuels such as hydrogen.)

NASA has made demonstrating this capability a key priority, as the agency aims to put boots on Mars in the 2030s and wants its pioneering human outpost to be as self-sufficient as possible. (Decreasing or eliminating the need for oxygen resupply from Earth would also cut costs, of course.)

In a future manned mission, astronauts would breathe some of the oxygen produced on the Red Planet. But much of the gas would be stored for use as an oxidizer, helping burn the rocket fuel that would launch spacecraft from the surface of Mars back to Earth, Hecht said.




I would not bet on Mars in 2030.
Some major obstacles need to be overcome.

And we will surely have higher priorities, if you are paying attention.
Quoting 600. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



it would have to become underground


mars underground

bet there is ice there too

which turns too water

and will offer protection from everything except direct impact


That's actually a good a idea, a ground base could work, and Mars has plenty of mountains, which would be the easiest place to build a ground base within, and a bit less claustrophobic. I still think a moon base first for humans makes the most sense. However, Mars is more interesting to study, and being first off world human colony would be pretty freakin' cool too. I'm not against Mars travel, I just think we should build a moon base first.

It would also be easier to launch a craft from the moon with the lower gravity in place, that could allow to shuttle fuel tanks and supplies to Mars to make a trip from Mars back to the Earth possible rather than a 1 way ticket.
Gettin there
DragonX Launch from my front yard. Click pic for WunderPhotos Series.

Sar will enjoy this (sarcasm). Link

Hoping for some late PM convection here. ECSB is still a bit east but seems it'll pass through before the WCSB collision occurs probably dumping nice rains west of the St Johns.
Quoting 604. Jedkins01:



That's actually a good a idea, a ground base could work, and Mars has plenty of mountains, which would be the easiest place to build a ground base within, and a bit less claustrophobic. I still think a moon base first for humans makes the most sense. However, Mars is more interesting to study, and being first off world human colony would be pretty freakin' cool too. I'm not against Mars travel, I just think we should build a moon base first.

It would also be easier to launch a craft from the moon with the lower gravity in place, that could allow to shuttle fuel tanks and supplies to Mars to make a trip from Mars back to the Earth possible rather than a 1 way ticket.


There is alot to be said about launching from the moon or atleast circling the moon first & using the momentum of it's orbit to get to Mars.
Quoting 580. sar2401:

I've got you beat. It was 100% for me and I haven't gotten any rain. I'm still waiting. However, this does show the impossibility of forecasts ever getting it right for just one place. The WPC can broad brush areas of likely precipitation, and those large areas are likely to be right. Those of us unlucky enough to be in places where the atmosphere doesn't cooperate end up not getting anything. That's the problem with looking at model 7-10 days out and thinking any single area is actually going to get what's depicted.


I know this may seem like a bit of taunting but i have had 60% chance for 3 days and it hasn't stopped raining, up to 8 inches and currently rising.
Tropics are pretty dead. 95S is the best looking invest..

Big time dust storm rolling through Salt lake City, UT
Travel nightmare along I-15


Quoting 604. Jedkins01:



That's actually a good a idea, a ground base could work, and Mars has plenty of mountains, which would be the easiest place to build a ground base within, and a bit less claustrophobic. I still think a moon base first for humans makes the most sense. However, Mars is more interesting to study, and being first off world human colony would be pretty freakin' cool too. I'm not against Mars travel, I just think we should build a moon base first.

It would also be easier to launch a craft from the moon with the lower gravity in place, that could allow to shuttle fuel tanks and supplies to Mars to make a trip from Mars back to the Earth possible rather than a 1 way ticket.


hey we can build them here I am sure there won't be a problem


getting the stuff there to do it is the issue


Quoting 610. Skyepony:

Tropics are pretty dead. 95S is the best looking invest..


And nothing to be aware of in the 10 days to come according to GFS. Most of you know my favourite worldwide weather site; click "Animation" to spot probable wind gusts:
http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/wind 000_01.htm
Quoting 612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hey we can build them here I am sure there won't be a problem
getting the stuff there to do it is the issue


I'd rather be dead than spending the rest of my life in a tube like this :-(
No sky to spot any storm clouds? No chance to feel fresh wind? No sunlight, no rain ... Ummm...
Quoting 549. Xyrus2000:



Might I suggest you get get your information from actual reviewed science instead of sensationalistic nonsense? Climate influences weather events, but weather is dominated by SHORT TERM conditions. Climate change can make things more likely to happen. Climate change can influence extremes. But ultimately climate is about LONG TERM trends and probabilities.

To illustrate, lets say you have two six sided dice. Weather is a single roll of the dice. Climate is the probability distribution of the dice after, say, 1000 rolls.

Now take those same dice and weight them. Lets say you weight the dice so that values greater than three on either one are more likely to come up. Does that mean you won't roll snake eyes? No. It just means it is now less likely because the dice are weighted. In other words, weighting causes a change in the probability distribution. That's climate change.

So now let's say you do 1000 rolls with the weighted dice. At the end, you average the values together and see that the average value of the weighted dice is higher than that of the unweighted dice. No real surprise there; you expected that to happen. But now try and go back through those 1000 rolls and pick out the rolls that were definitely caused by the weighting of the dice vs. those that would occur naturally. That's a much much more difficult problem to solve.

That's why you don't see thousands of scientific papers trying to link every single extreme weather events to climate change. It's exceptionally difficult to do. You'll find plenty of papers on likelihoods, values, influences, etc. but direct attribution is very rare and requires a considerable amount of evidence to substantiate.




Climate Change is a nonlinear dynamical process and people with a linear world view will have trouble to get into the science of it, no matter how often and how good they get a short introduction into the concepts of Climatology. I'm currently trying to get into the science and therefor the mathematics of nonlinear dynamics and chaos with this book, but it isn't easy. Yes you can also watch online academical courses about the subject, but nevertheless, my linear world view is so deeply in rooted into my brain, it isn't surprising to me that this concept wasn't discovered earlier. It leads to contradictions and other very counterintuitive outcomes.

Chaos is one of the most misunderstood concepts in science, because a Chaotic System is not all about randomness. Order and Disorder are connected and dynamical systems can switch from order to disorder and vis versa when the conditions allow it. Causality is also quite different, the butterfly effect isn't a causality chain, it is a causality map where causes and effects are connected and influences each other through feedback. The butterfly effect says that a flapping butterfly in Brazil can influence the processes which lead to a tornado in the western plains. But the probability of this is very, very, very low, but it can't be excluded as a possibility. Causality in a nonlinear dynamical system is very blurred and simple cause and effect chains are very uncommon. For instance when the Saharan Air Layer is more pronounced in the Atlantic, than there most be a cause for this, which also has a cause for it and so on to infinity and beyond (that is what a lot of nonlinear function look like and infinity isn't good for computer models, so that is one reason why linear approximation are used for it, there are of course also other reasons).

That isn't something people with a linear world view will find emotionally very satisfying, this is far to open and unspecific for a lot of people. Nevertheless it is the reality of the dynamical processes in the atmosphere and lies at the core of the problem Climatologists have to communicate to the public.
Quoting 614. barbamz:


I'd rather be dead than spending the rest of my life in a tube like this :-(
No sky to spot any storm clouds? No chance to feel fresh wind? No sunlight, no rain ... Ummm...
we could still go to the surface this is just another part of it the first steps

Quoting StAugustineFL:
Sar will enjoy this (sarcasm). Link

Hoping for some late PM convection here. ECSB is still a bit east but seems it'll pass through before the WCSB collision occurs probably dumping nice rains west of the St Johns.
Are you kidding me? Crap! The "new" WU site is absolute junk. It eats my RAM, I can't get everything on one page, and I can hardly find the things I really need. The Wundermap is only a "wunder" when it works. I'm really steamed about this. Dr. Masters promised that the Classic version would still be supported after the new site came along. I guess that's an indication of how much control he still has left. A year's free membership is a small reward for being foisted over to a site that barely works. Maybe WU needs to spend a little time over at Alexa and look at the trajectory of this graph.



Or this for load time -

Average (1.412 Seconds), 53% of sites are faster.
Quoting 612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hey we can build them here I am sure there won't be a problem


getting the stuff there to do it is the issue





Wouldn't the idea be to figure out a way to use the natural resources around you to make it rather then trying to ship up all the supplies?

I like both ideas - although maybe the moon makes sense since it is closer and then you can load more weight on a ship to send out to Mars?

None of this is gonna happen in lifetime anyways. But it is fun to think about it.
Quoting WeatherBAC:


I know this may seem like a bit of taunting but i have had 60% chance for 3 days and it hasn't stopped raining, up to 8 inches and currently rising.
Grr...Just had the best thunderstorm in a year go through so maybe my luck is about to change. Had some good lightning and thunder (Radar Dog now remembers that he's afraid of those), a high rain rate of 5.33" per hour, and total rainfall of 0.93". There's a little light rain behind it so maybe I can make it to an inch. Unforturnately, the bloberoo west of me is starting look moth eaten and the storms south of me are pulling a hard right into Georgia again. Still, it was a good storm and I'm thankful for what I've gotten.
Quoting 617. sar2401:

.

once the baggage is dropped maybe things will speed up
Quoting sar2401:
Are you kidding me? Crap! The "new" WU site is absolute junk. It eats my RAM, I can't get everything on one page, and I can hardly find the things I really need. The Wundermap is only a "wunder" when it works. I'm really steamed about this. Dr. Masters promised that the Classic version would still be supported after the new site came along. I guess that's an indication of how much control he still has left. A year's free membership is a small reward for being foisted over to a site that barely works. Maybe WU needs to spend a little time over at Alexa and look at the trajectory of this graph.



Or this for load time -

Average (1.412 Seconds), 53% of sites are faster.


The classic version still works. I'm using it right now.
Quoting 608. Skyepony:



There is alot to be said about launching from the moon or atleast circling the moon first & using the momentum of it's orbit to get to Mars.
Regardless of how we get there, I believe the first group to get to mars will not make it back alive. I hope I'm wrong.
Quoting 621. CybrTeddy:



The classic version still works. I'm using it right now.
only till may 4th
any issues should just go too this blog post or to help@wunderground.com
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not much of a fan of metal eh?
Not in the wee hours when others are trying to sleep, no. Also not as background music for storm chasing. :-)
Quoting 622. PensacolaDoug:

Regardless of how we get there, I believe the first group to get to mars will not make it back alive. I hope I'm wrong.

nobody make's it out
go mars die on mars simple
every one that goes there will live out there lives on that planet
paving the way for the next generation to grow and develop there
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any issues should just go too wu product team blog or too help@wunderground.com
Been there, done that. There aren't any solutions to long standing problems and there aren't likely to be any. Classic was the low footprint answer which just doesn't suit the marketing goals of TWC. Now I'll have to start looking at sidebars with cute kitten videos. This is the beginning of the end of WU, mark my words. It will soon be all TWC all the time. WU is a product for long ago, when serious geeks just wanted a place to find out about what was happening with the weather. It has been a good ride while it lasted, and I thank Dr. Masters and the crew from the day when I got here using Gopher.
Quiet 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season notting new here!! i said this will happern this year about two weeks ago
Please express opinions concerning Classic to this blog that is covering the subject.Thank you!
630. jpsb
Quoting 615. ChrisHamburg:



Climate Change is a nonlinear dynamical process and people with a linear world view will have trouble to get into the science of it, no matter how often and how good they get a short introduction into the concepts of Climatology. I'm currently trying to get into the science and therefor the mathematics of nonlinear dynamics and chaos with this book, but it isn't easy. Yes you can also watch online academical courses about the subject, but nevertheless, my linear world view is so deeply in rooted into my brain, it isn't surprising to me that this concept wasn't discovered earlier. It leads to contradictions and other very counterintuitive outcomes.

Chaos is one of the most misunderstood concepts in science, because a Chaotic System is not all about randomness. Order and Disorder are connected and dynamical systems can switch from order to disorder and vis versa when the conditions allow it. Causality is also quite different, the butterfly effect isn't a causality chain, it is a causality map where causes and effects are connected and influences each other through feedback. The butterfly effect says that a flapping butterfly in Brazil can influence the processes which lead to a tornado in the western plains. But the probability of this is very, very, very low, but it can't be excluded as a possibility. Causality in a nonlinear dynamical system is very blurred and simple cause and effect chains are very uncommon. For instance when the Saharan Air Layer is more pronounced in the Atlantic, than there most be a cause for this, which also has a cause for it and so on to infinity and beyond (that is what a lot of nonlinear function look like and infinity isn't good for computer models, so that is one reason why linear approximation are used for it, there are of course also other reasons).

That isn't something people with a linear world view will find emotionally very satisfying, this is far to open and unspecific for a lot of people. Nevertheless it is the reality of the dynamical processes in the atmosphere and lies at the core of the problem Climatologists have to communicate to the public.


I certainly agree with all you wrote. However after just about any an all "extreme" weather events of late I will read about how it was caused or worsened by "climate change". Don't believe me? Just google "climate change" + "any extreme weather event" and you will see that I am not making this up.
Quoting 624. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

any issues should just go too this blog post or to help@wunderground.com

Quoting 629. auburn:

Please express opinions concerning Classic to this blog that is covering the subject.Thank you!

Oh, thanks. X2 That blog now seems open to comments. When "admin" first posted it, I couldn't find a comment box there, and the thought crossed my mind that was a troll blog! LOL on me.
;/
Quoting 623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

only till may 4th


Is that when classic goes away for good?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
once the baggage is dropped maybe things will speed up
Sure it will. I'll also see unicorns grazing on the lawn...
Quoting Dakster:


Is that when classic goes away for good?
It's gone on May 4.
Quoting auburn:
Please express opinions concerning Classic to this blog that is covering the subject.Thank you!
I have done so. I expect it to make zero difference.

P.S. It's kind of futile to express opinions on an entry which announces Classic is done for on May 4.
Quoting 631. Barefootontherocks:



Oh, thanks. X2 That blog now seems open to comments. When "admin" first posted it, I couldn't find a comment box there, and the thought crossed my mind that was a troll blog! LOL on me.
;/
bf maybe in the haste of posting the blog the check box for the allow comments was overlooked quit trying to assume things



please
Quoting 633. sar2401:

Sure it will. I'll also see unicorns grazing on the lawn...


if you do that means you left this planet
and guess what yer not on mars either


lol
Quoting LAbonbon:

Thank you! I didn't know there was a way to do this without muting everything.
YOu're welcome. The whole autoplay thing really started driving me crazy when hidden ads started to play and I couldn't figure out where they were coming from. Especially porn ads, with a lot of noises one doesn't want to hear at work or home. Except for having to start some things like PDF's manually, it solves all those problems.
This week (starting yesterday) is the 37th annual WMO hurricane committee meeting in which they'll announce any possible hurricane names to retire. I think odile will definitely be retired while gonzalo may have a shot at getting retired, probably a 40% chance.
warming continues to build

as per nam anyway

Quoting 635. sar2401:

I have done so. I expect it to make zero difference.

P.S. It's kind of futile to express opinions on an entry which announces Classic is done for on May 4.

Whatever with the digital world - I've just watched this advertising video of your current homeland, Sar. Looks like you live in paradise anyway :-)



Have a good night over there!
Quoting 632. Dakster:



Is that when classic goes away for good?
ya its old outdated but hey if ya want to always look back u can always use the wayback timemachine ask skye about this she knows
Quoting 590. sar2401:

I agree. There's an easy way to stop all autoplay streams here. I've been using it for a couple of years and it works great. No more heavy metal leaping out of my speakers by surprise at 0-dark-thirty. :-)


Awesome. I've been meaning to google what I need to do to stop this crap from happening. It seems like it's a constant annoyance lately. Just hadn't gotten around to it yet.
So thanks for posting a solution. :)
By the way, I LOVE metal (I have an A7X deathbat on the back of my car, haha). Just, like you said, not when I'm not expecting it at "o-dark-thirty"! haha
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · Apr 13
Observed vs. Friday's forecast of equatorial trades- GFS underdid the strength of the weekend westerly wind anomalies
Quoting 636. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

bf maybe in the haste of posting the blog the check box for the allow comments was overlooked quit trying to assume things



please
Allow comments is the default, isn't it? Seems like I always had to uncheck "allow comments" when all I wanted was to keep the Oklahoma weather radar and links blog up without comment.

And please, read my words. I did not assume, I asked, "Is the "admin" handle a TROLL?" in the comment I made at wuproduct team and shauntanner's. Nor did I assume it in my comment here. I stated..."the thought crossed my mind."...

(edit: corrected typos)
Quoting 611. MaxWeather:

Big time dust storm rolling through Salt lake City, UT
Travel nightmare along I-15





Salt Lake City experienced its least snowy winter since record-keeping started in 1885 — and its warmest winter since that documentation started in 1874.


Link
Quoting 619. sar2401:

Grr...Just had the best thunderstorm in a year go through so maybe my luck is about to change. Had some good lightning and thunder (Radar Dog now remembers that he's afraid of those), a high rain rate of 5.33" per hour, and total rainfall of 0.93". There's a little light rain behind it so maybe I can make it to an inch. Unforturnately, the bloberoo west of me is starting look moth eaten and the storms south of me are pulling a hard right into Georgia again. Still, it was a good storm and I'm thankful for what I've gotten.


Oh my, finally an end in sight for the rain, Monday looks to be 20-30% and tuesday is 0%. Maybe you can get and inch or 2 before it dries out.
Unprecedented Early Start to ‘Perma-Burn’ Fire Season — Deadly Wildfires Rage Through Siberia on April 12

This weekend, temperatures in Khakassia soared to 25 degrees Celsius — 15-20 degrees Celsius above average for daytime temperatures in this region even during recent warmer years (1979-2000). A near 80 degree Fahrenheit reading that would be warm for this region in summertime — but one that cropped up in early April as a result of powerful and hot south to north air flows transporting heat across Asia and into the Arctic. These flows wound through Central Asia, warming Khakassia to record temperatures in their inexorable surge toward a warming polar zone.

The heat over Khakassia rapidly thawed surface vegetation, extending warmth deep into the thawing permafrost layer. The result was an outbreak of massive wildfires. Beginning this weekend the blazes have, so far, raged through 34 villages and been blamed for 1300 destroyed homes, the loss of nearly 4000 herd animals, 900 human injuries and 20 deaths. Such a fierce and destructive fire outbreak during summer would have been unprecedented. For this kind of event to occur in April, at the edge of Siberian winter, is nothing short of outlandishly strange.


Link
I don't understand this elnino and the hurricane predictions like what about the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season?which produced 18 named storms but 1987 comes to mind as well. The point I'm trying to make is both years had elnino all year and 2015 is predicted to have a double elnino event
652. xcool
Quoting 644. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya its old outdated but hey if ya want to always look back u can always use the wayback timemachine ask skye about this she knows


I prefer hottub time machine. I don't use classic, I was just curious. Thanks and I do use the google time machine look back from time to time.

BTW Sar some of those autoplays got me too. I was watching a show in a another window and was like, wait a minute... That can't be part of that show...
Quoting 610. Skyepony:

Tropics are pretty dead. 95S is the best looking invest..




May is quickly approaching and is the quietest month worldwide.... Southern hemisphere seasons are over and Northern hemisphere seasons are barely starting. Cyclones might form in the East and West Pacific, but not that many.
Quoting 638. sar2401:

YOu're welcome. The whole autoplay thing really started driving me crazy when hidden ads started to play and I couldn't figure out where they were coming from. Especially porn ads, with a lot of noises one doesn't want to hear at work or home. Except for having to start some things like PDF's manually, it solves all those problems.

Okay, couple things. Adblock Plus- I finally loaded it, and it makes a huge difference. WU was loaded with autoplay ads and it was driving me bonkers. But, no longer! Also, it got rid of lengthy Youtube ads :)

And, you do realize many ads are usually 'tailored'...so if you're getting porn ads, you may have just over shared with the blog ;)

Anyhoo...on to the weather...no rain guage here, but my neighborhood has gotten 3-4" since Friday evening.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only till may 4th


I missed the big purple banner on the top. Boo. :(
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I missed the big purple banner on the top. Boo. :(
It just showed up, and you can't even X out of the giant purple banner once you've read it. Another fine example of poor web programming.
Waves for water. Some of the first reponders to Vanuatu after cyclone Pam. Delivering filters and showing the locals how to turn their dirty water into drinkable water. Great to see!
Link
Last night the PBS Newshour ran a story about a fellow who has found a replacement for cement. ................

This cement alternative absorbs CO2 like a sponge

Link

At the end of the story, they ran a factoid that relates to the subject. :

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century.


I was God smacked.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Okay, couple things. Adblock Plus- I finally loaded it, and it makes a huge difference. WU was loaded with autoplay ads and it was driving me bonkers. But, no longer! Also, it got rid of lengthy Youtube ads :)

And, you do realize many ads are usually 'tailored'...so if you're getting porn ads, you may have just over shared with the blog ;)

Anyhoo...on to the weather...no rain guage here, but my neighborhood has gotten 3-4" since Friday evening.
LOL. I sometimes think it's more related to the time of night I'm on more than previous browsing habits. I have adblock plus but have it turned off here since I pay my membership. I sure hope all that garbage doesn't show up on the new site, even with a membership, but I suspect I know the answer. There are a couple of baby showers still wandering around here so I might have a chance to make it to one inch in one day, something that hasn't happened since last May 8. Seriously, I checked my PWS database. I knew it was a long time since I had seen one decent rain storm. Maybe this is the start of trend.
Was a bit windy.



Gusts up to 40 mph snapped the top off a power pole in Churchill County, Nevada, according to NV Energy, which reported that about 425 Nevada customers were without power. The Nevada Transportation Department recorded a 70-mph gust near Baker and Great Basin National Park.

I guess the power went out on the other side of town, then. I noticed the incubator fans slowed down a bit, but kept power all through the night.
Quoting 660. sar2401:

LOL. I sometimes think it's more related to the time of night I'm on more than previous browsing habits. I have adblock plus but have it turned off here since I pay my membership. I sure hope all that garbage doesn't show up on the new site, even with a membership, but I suspect I know the answer. There are a couple of baby showers still wandering around here so I might have a chance to make it to one inch in one day, something that hasn't happened since last May 8. Seriously, I checked my PWS database. I knew it was a long time since I had seen one decent rain storm. Maybe this is the start of trend.

I just scoped out the new homepage. I may get a bit of flack...but I like it. The layout is simple, everything's 'clean' and uncluttered...easy to find stuff.

Of course, in a few days I'll probably be looking for something, won't be able to find it, and will have to ask you all for help :/
Quoting windshear1993:
I don't understand this elnino and the hurricane predictions like what about the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season?which produced 18 named storms but 1987 comes to mind as well. The point I'm trying to make is both years had elnino all year and 2015 is predicted to have a double elnino event
El Nino didn't get cranked up until 1970 so it didn't have much effect on 1969. 1987 was below average at 7-3-1, which I'd expect, since it was in the middle of a prolonged El Nino. Your point is a little off considering 1987 will probably turn out to be close to this year. I don't know what a "double elnino" is so I can't help there. No matter what you might hope to see, El Nino's do have a profound effect on Atlantic hurricane numbers.
Quoting 630. jpsb:



I certainly agree with all you wrote. However after just about any an all "extreme" weather events of late I will read about how it was caused or worsened by "climate change". Don't believe me? Just google "climate change" + "any extreme weather event" and you will see that I am not making this up.


The problem with your statements is, the causality map for instance a tornado or cyclogensis isn't solved. And this is a 3 dimensional map with time as the 4. dimension as added bonus. Further generations of Meteorologists and Climatologists will have the chance to make a name for themselves to solve these issues. The main factors are known, but how they interact with each other and the other minor factors isn't all solved. So what causes exactly a tornado? Flapping butterflies in Brazil or increases in CO2 levels and therefor increases in the radiation balance of the atmosphere? Can you exclude the increases in the radiation balance as a factor in severe weather? The complexity of the problem is stunning and I'm glad the scientists trying to get their head around it, mine is spinning quite good. And even if the increase in the radiation balance isn't right now a significant factor for severe weather (the probability is not very high on that one), there is always time as the bonus of complexity.
Quoting 658. Abacosurf:

Waves for water. Some of the first reponders to Vanuatu after cyclone Pam. Delivering filters and showing the locals how to turn their dirty water into drinkable water. Great to see!
Link


The PBS Newshour just ran a story about inline water turbines in Portland , Ore, water system. Be up online later tonight.
Helo, everyone! That Rockies snowstorm is may  to bring us SEVERE weather tommorow afternoon! Not like tornado severe, but your good ol' hail kind of severe. I might go out and chase those storms. :-)
Quoting 659. ColoradoBob1:

Last night the PBS Newshour ran a story about a fellow who has found a replacement for cement. ................

This cement alternative absorbs CO2 like a sponge

Link

At the end of the story, they ran a factoid that relates to the subject. :

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century.


I was God smacked.




Limestone has to be heated to 2,300 F degrees to make cement. During the report, the cement people were very proud they burnt used tires to make that number.

Which brings me to all those ground up tires we are making everyday .

Not when we burn the tires to make cement , but when we grid them on pavement. That fine powder of black carbon that is tires wearing out.

I have never seen one paper on this whole problem. Ever.
Quoting LAbonbon:
I'll probably get flack for this...but I like the new homepage.
I just scoped out the new homepage. I may get a bit of flack...but I like it. The layout is simple, everything's 'clean' and uncluttered...easy to find stuff.

Of course, in a few days I'll probably be looking for something, won't be able to find it, and will have to ask you all for help :/
Remember trying to find how to save multiple hours for a radar picture? My homepage on the new site shows a black map on the top, below my favorites strung out horizontally. I guess the map is black because the sun has set. No way to turn that off. There are a bunch of orange blobs with temperatures all over it but they cover up the names of many of the cities, so I have to guess what I'm looking at. My forecast is black too. No way to change that. Underneath are four big pictures that show "US Radar". I use the NWS mosaic, which is much faster to load and doesn't suck my system resources. No way to get rid of that. Next is "US Severe Weather". I'm rarely interested in that but there's no way to get rid of it. After that is "Global Temperature Map". I never want to see that. Stuck with it. Last (but not least) is "Precipitation Model", which shows a bunch of stuff in purple against a black map. I don't even know what model it's showing me, or for what period. It looks like current weather, not a model. That was already on the "US Radar Map"...but it wasn't purple. I have lots of other sites, Including Tropical Tidbits, that do a good job of showing models. No way to not show that big picture either.

That's it. I can see the top of four other big pictures but I have to scroll down to see them. I'm on a 25" monitor so it's not like I'm on a small screen. I see the "Infographics" (is that a word?) on the right side. It shows the double red rainbow poster from two weeks ago. I saw that when it came out. I don't need to see that again...every time I log on. My favorites take about three or four seconds to show up and the same amount of time every time I go to a different screen. After looking around a bit, my free RAM is 75% consumed and I have to close the page before my computer locks up. My computer's not the newest, but I do have 4 gigs of RAM. Without the WU home page, I'm at 59% free RAM used with five other tabs open.

I won't even get into the blogs. I really tried to like the new site. I really did. I really don't, and not one of my suggestions has ever been acted on, any more than they asked some of us long-time, loyal users before dumping Classic.
Quoting 69044NE:
Helo, everyone! That Rockies snowstorm is may  to bring us SEVERE weather tommorow afternoon! Not like tornado severe, but your good ol' hail kind of severe. I might go out and chase those storms. :-)
Have fun. Get a rental car though - that hail can reduce the resale value of your car to nil.
671. jpsb
Quoting 665. ChrisHamburg:



The problem with your statements is, the causality map for instance a tornado or cyclogensis isn't solved. And this is a 3 dimensional map with time as the 4. dimension as added bonus. Further generations of Meteorologists and Climatologists will have the chance to make a name for themselves to solve these issues. The main factors are known, but how they interact with each other and the other minor factors isn't all solved. So what causes exactly a tornado? Flapping butterflies in Brazil or increases in CO2 levels and therefor increases in the radiation balance of the atmosphere? Can you exclude the increases in the radiation balance as a factor in severe weather? The complexity of the problem is stunning and I'm glad the scientists trying to get their head around it, mine is spinning quite good. And even if the increase in the radiation balance isn't right now a significant factor for severe weather (the probability is not very high on that one), there is always time as the bonus of complexity.


The problem with my statement is zero, I am simply pointing out that extreme weather events are being blamed on CO2(Global Warming/Climate change/Climate disruption). Google is your friend and Google agrees with me. Google any recent severe weather event and you will find it is blamed on "climate change". Hot/Cold/Wet/Dry does not matter CO2 is to blame.
Quoting WeatherBAC:


Oh my, finally an end in sight for the rain, Monday looks to be 20-30% and tuesday is 0%. Maybe you can get and inch or 2 before it dries out.
One can only hope. There is some more headed up from your direction so might pick up a little more before everything goes to bed with the setting sun.
Quoting 671. jpsb:



The problem with my statement is zero, I am simply pointing out that extreme weather events are being blamed on CO2(Global Warming/Climate change/Climate disruption). Google is your friend and Google agrees with me. Google any recent severe weather event and you will find it is blamed on "climate change". Hot/Cold/Wet/Dry does not matter CO2 is to blame.

Blamed by whom, exactly?
Quoting barbamz:

Whatever with the digital world - I've just watched this advertising video of your current homeland, Sar. Looks like you live in paradise anyway :-)



Have a good night over there!
It's actually about 11 miles from my house but it is a very pretty area. Lake Eufaula itself is less than a mile from the house but it's run by the Army Corps of Engineers. We have millions of birds up there in the winter and fall as some winter over and others are on their way back home, and we get bird watchers from all over the world. You do have to keep an eye for the gators though. GN, Barb.
Quoting 652. xcool:




Not a fan of the CFS by any means but those high shear anomalies in the eastern Pacific is non canonical for a conventional El Nino.


Quoting 673. Misanthroptimist:


Blamed by whom, exactly?


Poor guy is so enraged by science he has no choice but to deny it.
Quoting 630. jpsb:

I certainly agree with all you wrote. However after just about any an all "extreme" weather events of late I will read about how it was caused or worsened by "climate change". Don't believe me? Just google "climate change" + "any extreme weather event" and you will see that I am not making this up.

Google, " rapid climate change " .

Google, "we've never seen this before".

7 inches of rain just fell at the Tokio co-op gin in Texas. Out near "Brownfield, Texas".
The leading wine producing area in Texas.

Where jack rabbits carry canteens.

Google, "rapid climate change".

Google, " I can't see past the end of my nose, or the end of my porch. "
Quoting 676. Naga5000:





Poor guy is so enraged by science he has no choice but to deny it.

Let's hope that such people never hear of quantum physics!
"Google is your friend and Google agrees with me."

Funniest thing I've read all day. Of course Google agrees - it's meant to find what you're looking for. If you're looking for opinions on any topic, based on your search parameters, that's exactly what it returns.

If I type in 'Rubio wingnut', or 'Obama muslim', it returns many, many pages that will say exactly that. It doesn't mean there's credibility, or reliability, in the information that's posted, or credibility or reliability of the persons posting those pages. It's opinion. One has to be astute to weed out the 'weeds'.

By searching for 'climate extreme weather', of course there will be many returns. Many of which aren't worth a whole lot. Just because those pages are returned, it doesn't mean the scientific community as a whole agrees with what's posted.
Quoting 678. Misanthroptimist:


Let's hope that such people never hear of quantum physics!


At this point I'm pushing for science as a package deal. You don't support climate science? Oh, sorry, we are all out of internets and antibiotics.
Quoting 670. sar2401:

Have fun. Get a rental car though - that hail can reduce the resale value of your car to nil.

Not THAT old yet. I'm 12, I was just going to ask my parents. But thanks for the tip!:-)
I was wondering if anybody here lives in southwest Nebraska. I do and was wondering if they to were tracking these potential storms. Speaking of those storms, I'm making a blog in a bit about them. Anybody can see and comments are appreciated! :-)
Google is your friend and Google agrees with me.

jpsb

Only if one has very poor understanding of the natural world, and how we came to understand it.

Quoting 678. Misanthroptimist:


Let's hope that such people never hear of quantum physics!

Can you imagine the discussions that would ensue on the topics of quantum entanglement or Schroedinger's cat?
Today is the 80th anniversary of "Black Sunday", the worst dust storm of the Dust Bowl on April 14, 1935.

Many fine pages about this horrible storm.

A few pictures

Texas



Kansas

Dodge City



Dodge City KS 4 days earlier



Oklahoma



New Mexico

Quoting 681. 69044NE:


Not THAT old yet. I'm 12, I was just going to ask my parents. But thanks for the tip!:-)

Hmm...I was wondering how you were going to do that. But perhaps your parents would prefer if you were in school?

Plenty of time in your future for storms. Learn as much as you can about meteorology and severe weather first, before you make a decision to go chasing. That's my two cents anyway :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Today is the 80th anniversary of "Black Sunday", the worst dust storm of the Dust Bowl on April 14, 1935.

Many fine pages about this horrible storm.

A few pictures








Wow! Imagine something like that happening today! Eyewitnesses said that it looked like a distant fog and they didn't have much time to react.

Quoting 685. BaltimoreBrian:

Today is the 80th anniversary of "Black Sunday", the worst dust storm of the Dust Bowl on April 14, 1935.

Many fine pages about this horrible storm.

A few pictures







Nice work BB !
And the death of Lincoln. 150 years ago. April is heavy month. Always has been always will be. Caesar moved in April , Grant moved in April.
True dat Bob.

I may stop my lists here. They need to make the new wunderground smoother loading than it is. I use classic when putting together my lists because it is a snap. Doing it on the current page as it is now? No, no, no! Huge pain in the butt.

They need to get rid of many scripts.
Quoting 686. LAbonbon:


Hmm...I was wondering how you were going to do that. But perhaps your parents would prefer if you were in school?

Plenty of time in your future for storms. Learn as much as you can about meteorology and severe weather first, before you make a decision to go chasing. That's my two cents anyway :)

Thank you very much! These storms will mainly be in the afternoon and not TOO severe. I understand why you should do that because of tornado risk.

I probably won't go CHASING them. Just watching them. :-)
The weather map, 8 a.m. EST, April 14, 1935. Ah, that's better.

Click map to expand.

Quoting 688. ColoradoBob1:




Nice work BB !
And the death of Lincoln. 150 years ago. April is heavy month. Always has been always will be. Caesar moved in April , Grant moved in April.



Today's the 3rd anniversary of a major tornado outbreak that was also the 2nd time the SPC issued a day 2 high risk. The setup was a classic tornado outbreak (and was well forecasted) but unfortunately at around midnight a tornado hit woodward, killing 6 people.
New blog up! Link
I have always loved this idea.


Let's hope that such people never hear of quantum physics!


The perfect question for the clown bus that is the republican party.

( Note 4 years ago it was clown car )

Today is a bus of clowns.
Quoting 684. LAbonbon:


Can you imagine the discussions that would ensue on the topics of quantum entanglement or Schroedinger's cat?
Quantum entanglement and the Quantum Field worry me..There are things that exist I want no part of..If it pans out, we are all part of the whole, and thence connected to everything...Even Beiber, and I wont have it. and will, if necessary, create The Quantum Interstice...Which cannot be entangled quantumwise. kinda like Cosmic off repellent. :)
Quoting 684. LAbonbon:


Can you imagine the discussions that would ensue on the topics of quantum entanglement or Schroedinger's cat?


(From a climate change denier)..."that's just impossible and goes against my rational thinking. How can two things communicate faster than light. You would need evidence and data to back up a claim like that!"
(From a climate change believer/quantum physicists)..."Here is the experimental data backing up the craziness that quantum physics tells us about our world."
(denier)..."now that just goes against my logic, I don't understand what your data shows so I am just going to assume you manipulated it to prove your point. Nice try though, I know a guy who knows a guy who told me....."
(believer).....proceeds to begin shaking head, and tuning out the denier while whispering under his breathe "Ron White was right you really can't fix stupid"

My attempt at a lame joke! Anyways I wish I could understand climate science but have not studied the subject extensively enough to assert my opinion. However I know simple science; if I built two greenhouses which experienced the exact same conditions and pumped CO2 into one. The temperature of the greenhouse with increased levels of CO2 would be higher...hmmmm seems like a good starting point to me.

Anyways, here's what I tell most deniers I meet. I too believe it is egotistical of mankind to believe they can SOLELY affect the climate on earth, however I believe it is incredibly ignorant to believe we have no effect at all....
Quoting 671. jpsb:



The problem with my statement is zero, I am simply pointing out that extreme weather events are being blamed on CO2(Global Warming/Climate change/Climate disruption). Google is your friend and Google agrees with me. Google any recent severe weather event and you will find it is blamed on "climate change". Hot/Cold/Wet/Dry does not matter CO2 is to blame.


When you phrase it, that including an increase in the radiation balance has to be a factor in the causality for severe weather, as a "blame", you are codifying an emotional response into a scientific problem. It is a question of causality and if you don't want to get your head around the problem of causality and severe weather, than you have a problem to understand what scientists are saying. It is exactly what I said, people with a linear world view won't get the problem of nonlinear dynamical causality and results of nonlinear dynamical processes. And that isn't a accusation, it is what it is, nobody can understand everything. Because nonlinear dynamics is counterintuitive and has to be studied, nothing a lay person can learn easily without effort and time. So scientist explain the processes in the atmosphere in one world view and people listen in another one. There has to be misunderstanding.

And Goggle is not my friend, sorry.
The Titanic sinks early tomorrow morning...






Quoting 692. TimTheWxMan:




Today's the 3rd anniversary of a major tornado outbreak that was also the 2nd time the SPC issued a day 2 high risk. The setup was a classic tornado outbreak (and was well forecasted) but unfortunately at around midnight a tornado hit woodward, killing 6 people.


When I was small child at G.R. Bean elementry , we spent every afternoon in the hallway , in April, waiting for a tornado. For 2 weeks. It never came. In 1970 one cleaned the towns plow.
sgvalenti posted a link to the scripts running on his page when he loads the new wunderground. They need to cut this down. Way down.

Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Last night the PBS Newshour ran a story about a fellow who has found a replacement for cement. ................
This cement alternative absorbs CO2 like a sponge
Link

At the end of the story, they ran a factoid that relates to the subject. :

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century.

I was God smacked.

China consumes 9.5 x the steel the USA consumes.
I was thinking of that yesterday. Ours wasn't anywhere near that bad, though.

Quoting 685. BaltimoreBrian:

Today is the 80th anniversary of "Black Sunday", the worst dust storm of the Dust Bowl on April 14, 1935.

Many fine pages about this horrible storm.

A few pictures

Texas



Kansas

Dodge City



Dodge City KS 4 days earlier



Oklahoma



New Mexico


Anyone interested in reading about the Dust Bowl, here's a book recommendation:

The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl, by Timothy Egan

Can't really recommend this book enough. It truly is an excellent read. From the Overview of the book on Barnes & Noble's site:

"The Worst Hard Time is an epic story of blind hope and endurance almost beyond belief; it is also, as Tim Egan has told it, a riveting tale of bumptious charlatans, conmen, and tricksters, environmental arrogance and hubris, political chicanery, and a ruinous ignorance of nature's ways. Egan has reached across the generations and brought us the people who played out the drama in this devastated land, and uses their voices to tell the story as well as it could ever be told."—Marq de Villiers, author of Water: The Fate of Our Most Precious Resource

The dust storms that terrorized America's High Plains in the darkest years of the Depression were like nothing ever seen before or since, and the stories of the people that held on have never been fully told. Pulitzer Prize–winning New York Times journalist and author Timothy Egan follows a half-dozen families and their communities through the rise and fall of the region, going from sod homes to new framed houses to huddling in basements with the windows sealed by damp sheets in a futile effort to keep the dust out. He follows their desperate attempts to carry on through blinding black blizzards, crop failure, and the deaths of loved ones. Drawing on the voices of those who stayed and survived—those who, now in their eighties and nineties, will soon carry their memories to the grave—Egan tells a story of endurance and heroism against the backdrop of the Great Depression.

As only great history can, Egan's book captures the very voice of the times: its grit, pathos, and abiding courage. Combining the human drama of Isaac's Storm with the sweep of The American People in the Great Depression, The Worst Hard Time is a lasting and important work of American history."
Read more

Quoting 702. BaltimoreBrian:



China consumes 9.5 x the steel the USA consumes.


The numbers are off the charts, I can still remember went they all rode a bicycle to work.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


The numbers are off the charts, I can still remember went they all rode a bicycle to work.


China's steel consumption seems to be peaking---rails have been laid, bridges built that don't have to be replaced every year. Steel consumption in 2025 may be 15-20% down in 2025 in China, according to the Economist.

By then, India's will be ramping up, of course.
Quoting 695. hydrus:

Quantum entanglement and the Quantum Field worry me..There are things that exist I want no part of..If it pans out, we are all part of the whole, and thence connected to everything...Even Beiber, and I wont have it. and will, if necessary, create The Quantum Interstice...Which cannot be entangled quantumwise. kinda like Cosmic off repellent. :)

I LOVE this comment. :D

Now, after these thoughts of quantum paradoxes, commemorating the Dust Bowl with Woody, and just general weather-watching, I'm headed to bed. Woke up too early with the thunder, so I'm going to try and catch up on some zzzz's.

Good night, all.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
sgvalenti posted a link to the scripts running on his page when he loads the new wunderground. They need to cut this down. Way down.

If you look at TWC you'll see the numbers and types of scripts are almost identical.
BaltimoreBrian:

Our growth vs Chain's growth , we are a flea on the world stage. But , we hold the cards. China invented the old world, we invented the new one.
Quoting 708. sar2401:

If you look at TWC you'll see the numbers and types of scripts are almost identical.


Same owners.
Quoting 684. LAbonbon:


Can you imagine the discussions that would ensue on the topics of quantum entanglement or Schroedinger's cat?


BaltimoreBrian:

"Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. "
Quoting 630. jpsb:



I certainly agree with all you wrote. However after just about any an all "extreme" weather events of late I will read about how it was caused or worsened by "climate change". Don't believe me? Just google "climate change" + "any extreme weather event" and you will see that I am not making this up.


Google "Obama Stalin" or "9/11 Truther" or any other idiotic combinations you can come up with. You can find anything want that says anything you want.

Research papers are a hell of a lot more credible, and that's what you should be looking at. Or if that's too much to digest, go to REAL science sites. Ones with real climatologists with real science papers published. Try Real Climate instead of nutjob sites like WUWT or CA.
714. beell
Quoting 705. ColoradoBob1:



The numbers are off the charts, I can still remember went they all rode a bicycle to work.


and you had to wait a long time for your turn.
715. vis0
Quoting 633. sar2401:

Sure it will. I'll also see unicorns grazing on the lawn...
Okay if you'd use 1 "imaginary" noun BUT TWO! unicorns and that you have a lawn, no siree bob sar2401.  i can see maybe a unicorn, but with bloberinos to the left and right of you but very few overhead there is no way you have a lawn (unless you got some AstroTurf from a garage sale near Houston.)
Quoting 576. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Ninos start in the West Pacific. Westerly wind bursts, which are exactly what they sound like, generate downwelling kelvin waves in which warmer West Pacific surface ocean temperatures are pushed into the subsurface. Provided that westerly winds continue, the anomalously warm subsurface warm pool will continue to grow as the kelvin wave moves eastward. Eventually, this subsurface warm pool surfaces across the equatorial East Pacific. For a maintained and strong El Nino, we want basin-wide westerly anomalies. If trade winds are easterly across the equatorial East Pacific, cooler waters from the subsurface are upwelled, and ENSO regions cool as a result.

Westerly winds have been persistent and at times very strong near and west of the Date Line, but weak and non-continuous across the Central and East Pacific, so that's why it might be hard to see consistently on the wind map.


That's a good way to put it. I would also like to add (and I've mentioned this before) the cooler SSTs near/along the equator outside the Indo-West Pacific warm pool are generally insufficient (even during El Ninos) to adequately sustain latent heat via convection (& thus the convective signal of the MJO) & hence the actual near-surface westerlies often wane w/ increasing eastward zonal distance across the Pacific (esp. east of the international dateline). This also means that in terms of intraseasonal phenomena like the MJO, (which of all Eq Waves can most adequately project onto ENSO, particularly in the spring (~ March) when the MJO climatologically speaking, attains maximum amplitude, the zonal SST gradient across the Pacific is weakest, & the MJO's equatorial forcing & associated WWBs induced by convection is generally least asymmetric about the equator (thus focusing WWBs most efficiently into the equatorial countercurrent) & when the SSTs at the edge of the warm pool are most sensitive to higher freq. variability), ...the accompanying WWBs in the wake of such easterly propagating convection is also severely damped or virtually nonexistent well east of the warmpool/international dateline because the SSTs are significantly cooler there, despite the fact that the MJO & other equatorial phenomena tend to retain their upper level "footprints" across the western hemisphere. The response of the Pacific is also relative. Even though actual westerlies are relatively rare for areas well beyond the confines of the E Hem Warm pool, the zonal inclination of water to equalize surface height as a function of the wind-gravity balance across the equatorial Pacific is weakened w/ episodic WWBs, but since the Pacific is extremely large, its primary method to restore this wind-gravity balance is through the release of equatorial Kelvin Waves, which only propagate eastward @ ~2.5-3 m/s (thus taking about 2 months to cross the Pacific) along the equator (because they use the equator as a waveguide due to rapid decay of the coriolis parameter near the equator that sufficiently traps their motion here, reminiscent to coastally-trapped oceanic KWs.). Of course, (idealistically speaking) following the spring turmoil & rapid modifications that are set into motion due to the aforementioned favorable climatological factors, these oceanic KWs deepen the thermocline further east into the Pacific, thus constructively interfering with the Peru/Humboldt Current's intensification & invigorated equatorward advection of cool, upwelled water. This promotes increasingly higher SST anomalies & eastward progression of the strongest +SSTs anoms over the course of the fall into the far eastern boundary region (closest to S America), w/ the westward progression of these +SSTs anoms once again commencing as the Humboldt/Peru current fades & the SST gradient once again begins to weaken... Additionally, since the overall global weather/climate system can only respond to ENSO at a specific resonance, the actual peak in the El Nino itself occurs near the beginning of this westward SST anomaly progression, in & around the boreal winter solstice... (NDJ-DJF)
I think parts of the western Caribbean are about to go into moderate to severe drought.
Thing is governments here refuse to comment on any of it.
It may be bloggers here and weather underground pros to at least bring this looming crisis
To the front. It's hard to describe but if you lived here you would understand much like the folks in California.
Its so dry the crabs are taking over any soil areas speaking moisture.
Things are changing....I asked the nhc guys for a long term forecast they said ask cayman met......................................
.........................those are dots
718. vis0

Quoting 635. sar2401:

I have done so. I expect it to make zero difference.

P.S. It's kind of futile to express opinions on an entry which announces Classic is done for on May 4.
Gonna have to start joining sites like DUNDEE and 2 or 3 other International weather blog (Japanese, S. America site (frozen since 2013) & a hard to join blog site in the US mainly accepts members how are in or dabbled in the field of meteorology)
719. vis0

Quoting 662. LAbonbon:


I just scoped out the new homepage. I may get a bit of flack...but I like it. The layout is simple, everything's 'clean' and uncluttered...easy to find stuff.

Of course, in a few days I'll probably be looking for something, won't be able to find it, and will have to ask you all for help :/
i think the new page's layout is great but as sar2401 states it eats MBs for breakfast by the time storms start building up in the early PM the new site will think ALL of my HD/memory is an afternoon snack..
i posted on Wxu's new site blog that i like they layout but the only reason i knew what was layed out was i read the EMPTY  image & icon placeholders titles as so much memory was used it only loaded half the page. And we know that if the powers in charge give a settings number to the new pages features, blog comments will receive a low number in appearing first while ADS a high(er) number.

i know ADS pay for much but if a tree falls in a geico commercial and there is no one there to hear it will the sound of stock falling on Wall street wake them up?

Quoting 704. LAbonbon:

Anyone interested in reading about the Dust Bowl, here's a book recommendation:

The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl, by Timothy Egan

Can't really recommend this book enough. It truly is an excellent read. From the Overview of the book on Barnes & Noble's site:

"The Worst Hard Time is an epic story of blind hope and endurance almost beyond belief; it is also, as Tim Egan has told it, a riveting tale of bumptious charlatans, conmen, and tricksters, environmental arrogance and hubris, political chicanery, and a ruinous ignorance of nature's ways. Egan has reached across the generations and brought us the people who played out the drama in this devastated land, and uses their voices to tell the story as well as it could ever be told."—Marq de Villiers, author of Water: The Fate of Our Most Precious Resource

The dust storms that terrorized America's High Plains in the darkest years of the Depression were like nothing ever seen before or since, and the stories of the people that held on have never been fully told. Pulitzer Prize–winning New York Times journalist and author Timothy Egan follows a half-dozen families and their communities through the rise and fall of the region, going from sod homes to new framed houses to huddling in basements with the windows sealed by damp sheets in a futile effort to keep the dust out. He follows their desperate attempts to carry on through blinding black blizzards, crop failure, and the deaths of loved ones. Drawing on the voices of those who stayed and survived—those who, now in their eighties and nineties, will soon carry their memories to the grave—Egan tells a story of endurance and heroism against the backdrop of the Great Depression.

As only great history can, Egan's book captures the very voice of the times: its grit, pathos, and abiding courage. Combining the human drama of Isaac's Storm with the sweep of The American People in the Great Depression, The Worst Hard Time is a lasting and important work of American history."
Read more


Sounds dusty.
Quoting 698. ChrisHamburg:



When you phrase it, that including an increase in the radiation balance has to be a factor in the causality for severe weather, as a "blame", you are codifying an emotional response into a scientific problem. It is a question of causality and if you don't want to get your head around the problem of causality and severe weather, than you have a problem to understand what scientists are saying. It is exactly what I said, people with a linear world view won't get the problem of nonlinear dynamical causality and results of nonlinear dynamical processes. And that isn't a accusation, it is what it is, nobody can understand everything. Because nonlinear dynamics is counterintuitive and has to be studied, nothing a lay person can learn easily without effort and time. So scientist explain the processes in the atmosphere in one world view and people listen in another one. There has to be misunderstanding.

And Goggle is not my friend, sorry.

Quoting 615. ChrisHamburg:



Climate Change is a nonlinear dynamical process and people with a linear world view will have trouble to get into the science of it, no matter how often and how good they get a short introduction into the concepts of Climatology. I'm currently trying to get into the science and therefor the mathematics of nonlinear dynamics and chaos with this book, but it isn't easy. Yes you can also watch online academical courses about the subject, but nevertheless, my linear world view is so deeply in rooted into my brain, it isn't surprising to me that this concept wasn't discovered earlier. It leads to contradictions and other very counterintuitive outcomes.

Chaos is one of the most misunderstood concepts in science, because a Chaotic System is not all about randomness. Order and Disorder are connected and dynamical systems can switch from order to disorder and vis versa when the conditions allow it. Causality is also quite different, the butterfly effect isn't a causality chain, it is a causality map where causes and effects are connected and influences each other through feedback. The butterfly effect says that a flapping butterfly in Brazil can influence the processes which lead to a tornado in the western plains. But the probability of this is very, very, very low, but it can't be excluded as a possibility. Causality in a nonlinear dynamical system is very blurred and simple cause and effect chains are very uncommon. For instance when the Saharan Air Layer is more pronounced in the Atlantic, than there most be a cause for this, which also has a cause for it and so on to infinity and beyond (that is what a lot of nonlinear function look like and infinity isn't good for computer models, so that is one reason why linear approximation are used for it, there are of course also other reasons).

That isn't something people with a linear world view will find emotionally very satisfying, this is far to open and unspecific for a lot of people. Nevertheless it is the reality of the dynamical processes in the atmosphere and lies at the core of the problem Climatologists have to communicate to the public.


+1000... These statements begin to scratch the surface at a significant portion (but certainly not all) of generally where I stand on climate, and I'm glad to know I'm not the only one here w/ this perspective...

Now google scholar on the other hand... :)
Special Attention BB -

Interesting article. Looks like Alaska is going to be selling water to California in Bulk. Good news, the water is so good that it doesn't need treating or filtering...

long-anticipated-bulk-water-exports-to California from sitka-start-summer-businessman-says
“ Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. “

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century
Quoting 723. ColoradoBob1:

“ Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. “

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century


Luckily it is isn't a finite universe.

Quoting vis0:

i think the new page's layout is great but as sar2401 states it eats MBs for breakfast by the time storms start building up in the early PM the new site will think ALL of my HD/memory is an afternoon snack..
i posted on Wxu's new site blog that i like they layout but the only reason i knew what was layed out was i read the EMPTY image & icon placeholders titles as so much memory was used it only loaded half the page. And we know that if the powers in charge give a settings number to the new pages features, blog comments will receive a low number in appearing first while ADS a high(er) number.

i know ADS pay for much but if a tree falls in a geico commercial and there is no one there to hear it will the sound of stock falling on Wall street wake them up?
Maybe it will but probably not, Vis. This is a pure business decision to drive all users to one WU site so the numbers look better than they do now. The new site has been losing unique pageviews almost since the day it started. It would have lost many more if more people knew Classic even existed, hence enough reason to kill it off. It already looks like TWC and, within a couple of years, it will be.

T-20 days and counting.
Quoting Dakster:
Special Attention BB -

Interesting article. Looks like Alaska is going to be selling water to California in Bulk. Good news, the water is so good that it doesn't need treating or filtering...

long-anticipated-bulk-water-exports-to California from sitka-start-summer-businessman-says
Look for Sitka water on the shelves right next to Fiji water. I really had to laugh when I first saw Fiji water being sold. It has some of the most despicable water in the South Seas. After backpacking for 40 years and traveling a large part of the world, the only time I ever got giardia was drinking water in Fiji. I imagine they clean it up some before it's bottled though. I haven't had the nerve to try in. :-)

T-20 days and counting.
Quoting Webberweather53:



1000... These statements begin to scratch the surface at a significant portion (but certainly not all) of generally where I stand on climate, and I'm glad to know I'm not the only one here w/ this perspective...

Now google scholar on the other hand... :)
I tried the following search in Google using the advanced search with the returns needing the exact phrase to be valid -

"lizard people and chemtrails"

It got 2,600 results. There are 2,600 sites that include that exact phrase out there. It shouldn't surprise anyone that a somewhat broader search will always return some kind of result.

T-20 days and counting
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Same owners.
Yes, I know. Soon to be the same site.

T-20 days and counting
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



How a Hudson Highlands Mountain Shaped Tussles Over Energy and the Environment

Zombie worms ate plesiosaur bones


*** First signs of self-interacting dark matter? Dark matter may not be completely dark after all



* Strange rituals or cannibalism? Neanderthals manipulated bodies of adults and children shortly after death


!!! Scientists create invisible objects in the microwave range without metamaterial cloaking

Planet spotted deep within our galaxy: One of the most distant planets known


* Search for advanced civilizations beyond Earth finds nothing obvious in 100,000 galaxies




* New 'cool roof time machine' will accelerate cool roof deployment

!!! Quantum Hall effect: Quantization of 'surface Dirac states' could lead to exotic applications


* Typhoon Haiyan's storm surge may contaminate aquifer for years


*** Burying the climate change problem

*** Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider smashes record for polarized proton luminosity

Graphene pushes the speed limit of light-to-electricity conversion




* Tweets turned into flood maps that could help save lives

* Canada provinces urge PM to take stronger action on climate change

SpaceX rocket blasts off, then lands...too hard...on ocean barge

Is hard-to-reach energy slowing down economic growth? I disagree.

The Pacific Ocean has been slowing global warming down. That could be about to change.


No, global warming is not going to take away your fish and chips
A riposte to one of yesterday's stories.

!!! A Math Problem From Singapore Goes Viral: When Is Cheryl's Birthday?


Chimps That Hunt Offer a New View on Evolution


New Horizons Probe Dishes Up Its First Color View of Pluto and Charon




************************************************* ************************************************

The following article is courtesy of Dakster:

* Long-anticipated bulk water exports from Sitka to start this summer, businessman says
Typhoon Haiyan's storm surge may contaminate aquifer for years
Date:
April 14, 2015
Source:
University of Texas at Austin
Summary:
In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Philippines, killing more than 6,000 people and destroying nearly $3 billion worth of property. While the country is still recovering from the storm, researchers have found that an aquifer on the island of Samar inundated with salt water by the storm surge could remain undrinkable for up to 10 years. But a second aquifer on the island that was also inundated has recovered much more quickly.


Link
Typhoon Haiyan's storm surge may contaminate aquifer for years

Attention all you FLa. readers. You may want to look into where your fresh water comes from, And how high you are above sea level.
Well, guess it's time to move on. Couldn't deal with the new site, been on classic forever. Time to chant!

Keep classic, keep classic, ect.......................


Quoting sar2401:
Yes, I know. Soon to be the same site.

T-20 days and counting
City of Naples water comes from eastern collier county. If that gets salt intrusion, games over anyway.



Quoting ColoradoBob1:<
City of Naples water comes from eastern collier county. If that gets salt intrusion, games over anyway.

And high high above sea level is it ?
USGS, NGA, USDA, EPA, NPS

%u2013
Map Legend
Lat/Lon: 26.27%uFFFDN 81.41%uFFFDW Elevation: 16 ft" About 25 miles inland!
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
City of Naples water comes from eastern collier county. If that gets salt intrusion, games over anyway.

And high high above sea level is it ?
Quoting 736. ColoradoBob1:



The 3 armed guy from Venus was defeated by the 3 eyed guy from Mars. I watched the first run of this episode. Every Saturday night. Rod Serling was amazing. He scared the pants off all of us.


Actually, the 4-armed guy was from Mars, and he was defeated by the 3-eyed Venusian :)
Sar, I'm actually responding to your comment 741--decided to take the Lincoln assassination news report down. I like the new look, and the look for the last year, but the script issue is intolerable when putting together a complex comment or entry. Depending on whether classic is still available on May 4th--my participation here will come to an end then or late April, aside from occasionally dropping by to say hello.
Quoting swflurker:
Well, guess it's time to move on. Couldn't deal with the new site, been on classic forever. Time to chant!

Keep classic, keep classic, ect.......................


The comments on the blog page announcing the death of Classic are now up 237 In about nine hours. The reaction, with the exception of two mods, has been uniformly negative. I have yet to see a response from John Celenza, the boy wonder Director of Software Engineering, who posted the announcement. I have yet to see any post from an admin or other corporate type. I suspect that sends a pretty clear message about how customer feedback is handled. Only those actually using Classic are seeing a link to this announcement getting rid of Classic on May 4. December 7 would have been more appropriate. If you feel moved to make a comment, you can do so here. It really won't make any difference in terms of saving Classic, but at least it might give them an idea of how many customers they will be losing. Mr. Celenza's PWS network is going to be shrinking rapidly, since it's generally the long-time members who post their PWS here. I intend to remove my PWS on May 4, along with my deluxe self.

T-20 days and counting...
This is the wettest I have seen the Euro in since 2008 and that was with TS Fay. Euro is even forecsing higher totals than the November 2014 event across FL. So my point is not only did the Euro keep its solution the model trended even wetter for early next week. Now the question becomes does the GFS begin to change its solution toward the wetter Euro?

NOAA agrees with the Euro.
744. MahFL
Quoting 723. ColoradoBob1:

“ Only mad men and economists believe a ever expanding world lives on a finite planet. “

Between 2011 and 2013 China poured more concrete than the US used in the entire 20th century


Whole cities they built have no one living in them...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is the wettest I have seen the Euro in since 2008 and that was with TS Fay. Euro is even forecsing higher totals than the November 2014 event across FL. So my point is not only did the Euro keep its solution the model trended even wetter for early next week. Now the question becomes does the GFS begin to change its solution toward the wetter Euro?

NOAA agrees with the Euro.


I think you should dry out for a few days next week, but it won't last long.
The Gulf Coast, S.E., and northern Florida are stuck in an El-Nino storm track setup with low pressure after low pressure moving across the Gulf Coast states.

Definitely not a summer pattern with low pressures moving from west to east across the Gulf Coast. This is a southern Jet (El-Nino) event.

I just hope some of that rain gets down into Southern Fl.



Quoting 742. StormTrackerScott:

Now the question becomes does the GFS begin to change its solution toward the wetter Euro?


Getting better as a forecaster, Scott. That mentality.
747. MahFL
Quoting 722. Dakster:

Special Attention BB -

Interesting article. Looks like Alaska is going to be selling water to California in Bulk.


It also may not happen, the infrastructure for mass transporting of water does not exist.
Quoting 745. Sfloridacat5:



I think you should dry out for a few days next week, but it won't last long.
The Gulf Coast, S.E., and northern Florida are stuck in an El-Nino storm track setup with low pressure after low pressure moving across the Gulf Coast states.

Definitely not a summer pattern with low pressures moving from west to east across the Gulf Coast. This is a southern Jet (El-Nino) event.

I just hope some of that rain gets down into Southern Fl.



southern Florida's dry season ends in may, may begins your rainy season..just a few more weeks.
Quoting 687. TimTheWxMan:




Wow! Imagine something like that happening today! Eyewitnesses said that it looked like a distant fog and they didn't have much time to react.
If it happened now, we know what would be blamed.
Quoting 69044NE:
Helo, everyone! That Rockies snowstorm is may  to bring us SEVERE weather tommorow afternoon! Not like tornado severe, but your good ol' hail kind of severe. I might go out and chase those storms. :-)


No, just Don't. you are putting your life and car at risk.


Quoting 750. PensacolaDoug:

If it happened now, we know what would be blamed.
Magic, obviously.
Quoting 675. Drakoen:



Not a fan of the CFS by any means but those high shear anomalies in the eastern Pacific is non canonical for a conventional El Nino.
Does this look like maybe a Modoki Nino setup? Oh the horror if this were to happen, could be very interesting in the other ocean.
Quoting 694. ColoradoBob1:

I have always loved this idea.


Let's hope that such people never hear of quantum physics!


The perfect question for the clown bus that is the republican party.

( Note 4 years ago it was clown car )

Today is a bus of clowns.
Here's an Idea..
Lets compare Ted Cruz's resume and grades to yours!
Quoting 698. ChrisHamburg:



When you phrase it, that including an increase in the radiation balance has to be a factor in the causality for severe weather, as a "blame", you are codifying an emotional response into a scientific problem. It is a question of causality and if you don't want to get your head around the problem of causality and severe weather, than you have a problem to understand what scientists are saying. It is exactly what I said, people with a linear world view won't get the problem of nonlinear dynamical causality and results of nonlinear dynamical processes. And that isn't a accusation, it is what it is, nobody can understand everything. Because nonlinear dynamics is counterintuitive and has to be studied, nothing a lay person can learn easily without effort and time. So scientist explain the processes in the atmosphere in one world view and people listen in another one. There has to be misunderstanding.

And Goggle is not my friend, sorry.
I still believe it all started with the butterflies.
Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
EARLY TODAY SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATER TODAY.

ALZ052-059-061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-151815-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-150416T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
WASHINGTON-ESCAMBIA-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...ATMORE...BREWTON...
EAST BREWTON...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOL E...EGLIN AFB...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
510 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...
UPPER MOBILE AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* WHAT AND WHERE...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS CAN
BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...ISOLATED TOTALS MAY EASILY EXCEED SIX
INCHES IN THREE HOURS ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.

* IMPACTS...POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES. LOCAL CREEK FLOODING...AS
WELL AS WATER FLOWING OVER ROADWAYS WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN MOBILE.

&&

$$
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If it happened now, we know what would be blamed.
If it happened now, we know what many would be wildly flailing their arms and screaming at the top of their lungs what could not possibly have anything to do with it...

The great dust storms of the 30s were exacerbated in large part by poor agricultural planning and shortsighted farming methods--a glaring example that man's ignorance can indeed influence the weather, despite the protestations of many.


But I digress.

Will there be great dust storms in the future? Climate scientists all but guarantee it; with some areas--the US Southwest, in particular--rising temperatures and increasing drought will bring on desertification over the coming decades, beginning with parts that are only tillable now with the rerouting of once-great rivers. And once those rivers dry up and the land returns to hot, windswept sand, look out...

(Of course, even then there'll be a handful of fossil fuel-addicted troglodytes shouting that it's all just part of a natural cycle, that things have been worse in the past, that it'll all magically get better--but by then, those troglodytes will be spouting their nonsense to empty rooms and deaf ears.)
Quoting LargoFl:
southern Florida's dry season ends in may, may begins your rainy season..just a few more weeks.


Usually towards the end of May (on average). The last few years we've waited until June.
Last year we waited until July.

Last year we only saw 2.8" in June, which normally averages over 10" of rain. I seriously doubt we'll see that happen this year.

June is usually very wet. I remember one year when the water would just overflow the swimming pool everyday. I had family in town for a week in June, and it rained over 10" in 3-4 days (the all day kind or rain) while they were in town. Total bust on going to the beach or doing anything outdoors that week.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If it happened now, we know what would be blamed.

And blamed correctly, most likely.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's an Idea..
Lets compare Ted Cruz's resume and grades to yours!

Nah, let's compare character. That's much more telling. ;)
Quoting 759. Sfloridacat5:



Usually towards the end of May (on average). The last few years we've waited until June.
Last year we waited until July.

Last year we only saw 2.8" in June, which normally averages over 10" of rain. I seriously doubt we'll see that happen this year.

June is usually very wet. I remember one year when the water would just overflow the swimming pool everyday. I had family in town for a week in June, and it rained over 10" in 3-4 days (the all day kind or rain) while they were in town. Total bust on going to the beach or doing anything outdoors that week.


Still at 0.59" for April. A pretty robust thunderstorm formed to the north of me, and the southern edge of it missed my location by about 2 miles. I could hear the boomers and the sky was very dark over me, but alas no rain. Once the storm formed, it pushed away to the NE. Local mets say we have a 40% chance the next two days, I hope to pick up something.
Quoting 756. LargoFl:

Largo, that radar is from yesterday afternoon, and it says it's down for maintenance.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Still at 0.59" for April. A pretty robust thunderstorm formed to the north of me, and the southern edge of it missed my location by about 2 miles. I could hear the boomers and the sky was very dark over me, but alas no rain. Once the storm formed, it pushed away to the NE. Local mets say we have a 40% chance the next two days, I hope to pick up something.


Should be a front in the area on Monday. Depending on where it stalls out, someone could see some decent rain. We've got a 50% chance of rain on Monday here.
Hopefully, the front gets down into South Florida.
Our luck, it will stall over north Florida and keep all the rain over north Florida.
As much fun I'm sure this will be, I gotta go pull the cart that so many are riding in. I don't have time for this. Have a nice day.
Quoting 720. KoritheMan:


Sounds dusty.



It has a lot of dry humor. *ducks*
Quoting 741. sar2401:

Mr. Celenza's PWS network is going to be shrinking rapidly, since it's generally the long-time members who post their PWS here. I intend to remove my PWS on May 4, along with my deluxe self.

T-20 days and counting...


Let us know where you are going.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

I don't need to know Bob's character. I know Ted's. The fact that Cruz is willing to lie for a political agenda makes it highly likely Colorado Bob has character of better quality than Cruz.

Try to stay dry while you're pulling that (largely imaginary) cart. Looks a bit wet up your way.
Quoting 745. Sfloridacat5:



I think you should dry out for a few days next week, but it won't last long.
The Gulf Coast, S.E., and northern Florida are stuck in an El-Nino storm track setup with low pressure after low pressure moving across the Gulf Coast states.

Definitely not a summer pattern with low pressures moving from west to east across the Gulf Coast. This is a southern Jet (El-Nino) event.

I just hope some of that rain gets down into Southern Fl.





If the Euro verifies this will be a FL Penisula event with even significant totals in S FL as well but the heaviest appear to set up across C FL mainly due to this is where the Euro stalls the front. Now what is odd the 06Z GFS has changed its tune too with now only drying out for one day (Tuesday) then returns the rain again. I see what the Euro is doing and I'll show you below. It makes sense as the GFS hangs the energy in the SW US on Tuesday while the Euro kicks it out. These subtle differences can make or brake a forecast for early next week. What is very interesting is the Euro brings 3" PWAT's across C FL. That type of deep moisture can lead to very serious rainfall totals and this is something we need to watch because if this verifies there could be areas that see 10" plus in this set up early next week.


0Z Euro precip forecast thru day 10. Very impressive folks.


Euro kicking out the SW energy at 168hrs.
Quoting yoboi:


Look at the bright side...fossil fuels have extended the growing season....produced record global crops to support a record population that are living record longer lives....why the need to walk into a room to notice a very small crack in the wall when the foundation is very solid???

Spoiler alert! No matter how hard you clap, Tinkerbell still kicks the bucket.
Quoting 771. Misanthroptimist:


I don't need to know their characters. I know Ted's. The fact that he's willing to lie for a political agenda makes it highly likely Colorado Bob and TC both have character's of better quality than Cruz.

Try to stay dry while you're pulling that (largely imaginary) cart. Looks a bit wet up your way.
You really need to let Nea do the arguing, You're not very good at it.

You really want to talk about "lie for a political agenda"? How about Harry R saying on the senate floor that he heard that Mitt R "hadn't paid any taxes for 10 years". An outright lie.
How about "if you like your healthcare you can keep your healthcare" I could go on and on. I rally do have to get to work tho.
Quoting 754. PensacolaDoug:

Here's an Idea..
Lets compare Ted Cruz's resume and grades to yours!
This means squat. Ted Kacynski got a Ph.D. in mathematics at Michigan after graduating from Harvard. He was also a professor at Cal. That's a shiny resume... He was also an ideological nut job.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You really need to let Nea do the arguing, You're not very good at it.

You really want to talk about "lie for a political agenda"? How about Harry R saying on the senate floor that he heard that Mitt R "hadn't paid any taxes for 10 years". An outright lie.
How about "if you like your healthcare you can keep your healthcare" I could go on and on. I rally do have to get to work tho.

Don't care about Reid's lie (if it happened). It's not pertinent to the subject at hand. Cruz flat-out lied about AGW, claiming that it hadn't warmed in 17 years and that the science supported him. Neither are true.
Quoting 778. Misanthroptimist:


Don't care about Reid's lie (if it happened). It's not pertinent to the subject at hand. Cruz flat-out lied about AGW, claiming that it hadn't warmed in 17 years and that the science supported him. Neither are true.
Of you don't care. The left subscribes to the notion that the "ends justifies the means" .
Not looking good for Tropical Systems across the Atlantic Basin this year.

Euro. This is about as bad as you will ever see the Atlantic Basin look.

781. yoboi
Quoting 778. Misanthroptimist:


Don't care about Reid's lie (if it happened). It's not pertinent to the subject at hand. Cruz flat-out lied about AGW, claiming that it hadn't warmed in 17 years and that the science supported him. Neither are true.


RSS data is part of science...
Quoting 779. PensacolaDoug:

Of you don't care. The left subscribes to the notion that the "ends justifies the means" .


Dat projection... I remember one wing of government shutting down the government and holding America's credit rating hostage attempting to get its way on a budget issue... was that the left wing? Maybe I'm misremembering.
Quoting 777. SouthTampa:

This means squat. Ted Kacynski got a Ph.D. in mathematics at Michigan after graduating from Harvard. He was also a professor at Cal. That's a shiny resume... He was also an ideological nut job.

To be sure, it means Cruz is a liar (that is someone who deliberately tells porkies), not an ignorant. Malice, not someone 'who doesn't know better'.
Quoting 779. PensacolaDoug:

Of you don't care. The left subscribes to the notion that the "ends justifies the means" .

I don't know about that, but I do know that Misanthroptimist (that's me!) doesn't subscribe to the notion of moving the goal posts as you are doing. The comparison was between Colorado Bob's character and that of Ted Cruz.

Harry Reid has nothing to do with it. Please address the topic or move along, thank you.
785. yoboi
Quoting 782. schistkicker:



Dat projection... I remember one wing of government shutting down the government and holding America's credit rating hostage attempting to get its way on a budget issue... was that the left wing? Maybe I'm misremembering.


Maybe they wanted to read the bill before they voted on it???
Quoting 781. yoboi:



RSS data is part of science...

"Part of science" isn't "the science" as Cruz asserted. The science doesn't support Cruz. He knows it (and if he doesn't, it's because he doesn't want to know).

Either way, Cruz lied deliberately. He chose an inferior data set that disagrees with all others (and is known to have issues) and asserted that that was "the data."

Were getting closer to moderate El-Nino. Could be realized next month then Strong El-Nino seems likely now by August or September.

Over thousands of years....our desire to communicate has led to this. God bless us.
541 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.


.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING BACK TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE GENERATED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE PAST WEEK...LEAVING
MUCH OF THE GROUND NEAR SATURATION. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT TIME. AREAS FROM NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH
METRO ORLANDO...LAKE COUNTY AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOUR
CORRIDOR WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW
SPOTS AND ROADWAYS.
790. yoboi
Quoting 786. Misanthroptimist:


"Part of science" isn't "the science" as Cruz asserted. The science doesn't support Cruz. He knows it (and if he doesn't, it's because he doesn't want to know).

Either way, Cruz lied deliberately. He chose an inferior data set that disagrees with all others (and is known to have issues) and asserted that that was "the data."




Nice try at splitting hairs....But that would be the same as saying the sun isn't shinning on a partly cloudy day....
Quoting 790. yoboi:



Nice try at splitting hairs....But that would be the same as saying the sun isn't shinning on a partly cloudy day....

Incorrect. Ignoring the vast majority of the data that contradicts one while picking one piece (and a faulty piece, at that) that seems to support you is dishonest. That's hardly splitting hairs.

Had he chosen one of the other data sets -HADCRUT, GISS, UAH, BEST, NOAA, etc.- and claimed that that represented "the science" he would have no problem. Complaints about that would be splitting hairs since all of those data sets show warming over the last seventeen years.
Quoting 790. yoboi:



Nice try at splitting hairs....But that would be the same as saying the sun isn't shinning on a partly cloudy day....


I believe the word you are looking for is cherry picking. You are saying cherry picking is valid as long as you pick the data that supports your argument. Typical.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
541 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.


.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING BACK TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE GENERATED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE PAST WEEK...LEAVING
MUCH OF THE GROUND NEAR SATURATION. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT TIME. AREAS FROM NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH
METRO ORLANDO...LAKE COUNTY AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOUR
CORRIDOR WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW
SPOTS AND ROADWAYS.


A study you would find interesting. It's about the correlation between ENSO and the wet season in Florida.
Good read.
Link
Quoting 788. Abacosurf:

Over thousands of years....our desire to communicate has led to this. God bless us.

And at this time of the day you can bet that everyone is sober, too! Ain't that somethin'? lol

Could be worse. It could be raining.
795. yoboi
Quoting 791. Misanthroptimist:


Incorrect. Ignoring the vast majority of the data that contradicts one while picking one piece (and a faulty piece, at that) that seems to support you is dishonest. That's hardly splitting hairs.

Had he chosen one of the other data sets -HADCRUT, GISS, UAH, BEST, NOAA, etc.- and claimed that that represented "the science" he would have no problem. Complaints about that would be splitting hairs since all of those data sets show warming over the last seventeen years.



I can see our point but look at mine....Think of all the people that were laughing at Einstein and Darwin...they were considered the Loner and crazy but the history with science is not a popularity contest...Just because you choose to side with the outlier the loner does not automatic make the science wrong....History as shown us otherwise...
It seems to me that some people on this site need to work on their argumentation (either that, or they are being purposefully nettlesome - a real possibility). There is no question that Senator Cruz cherry picked data to support his "17-years" claim - a claim that has been debunked so many times that it has become tiresome to debate. (Eyeroll, "not this [redacted] again")

The claim that he has a superior resume is more evidence that he is intentionally obfuscating the discourse in an attempt to forward his ideology, than the converse (that he is smarter than the 97% of scientists that claim AGW is real, based on, you know, science).

Then, when your argument is thoroughly fisked, you resort to ad hominem attacks. Which, fine, if you want to be that way, don't do running to the Mods when someone calls you an idiot.
Quoting 795. yoboi:




I can see our point but look at mine....Think of all the people that were laughing at Einstein and Darwin...they were considered the Loner and crazy but the history with science is not a popularity contest...Just because you choose to side with the outlier the loner does not automatic make the science wrong....History as shown us otherwise...

Nonsense. History has shown us that the Scientific Method can teach us more about Nature than any other means yet discovered. The Scientific Method is ruled ultimately by valid evidence (and lines of valid evidence). That evidence and several lines of evidence are pointing one way -toward the current warming being the product of human activity. There is no alternate hypothesis or theory.

Whether someone was laughed at 100, 200, or 1,000 years ago is immaterial. Einstein and Darwin weren't right because someone laughed at them. They were right because the evidence supported their theories.
Quoting 794. Misanthroptimist:


And at this time of the day you can bet that everyone is sober, too! Ain't that somethin'? lol

Could be worse. It could be raining.
Not so sure i would make that bet.lol you'd be surprised how many people catch a DIP or DUI this time of the day.lol
Sadly, we lost 3 Lives here yesterday during the prolonged Flash Flooding.

800. yoboi
Quoting 797. Misanthroptimist:


Nonsense. History has shown us that the Scientific Method can teach us more about Nature than any other means yet discovered. The Scientific Method is ruled ultimately by valid evidence (and lines of valid evidence). That evidence and several lines of evidence are pointing one way -toward the current warming being the product of human activity. There is no alternate hypothesis or theory.

Whether someone was laughed at 100, 200, or 1,000 years ago is immaterial. Einstein and Darwin weren't right because someone laughed at them. They were right because the evidence supported their theories.


Can you please produce a list of names of the 95% of scientist that support your claim of AGW???
Quoting 753. NativeSun:

Does this look like maybe a Modoki Nino setup? Oh the horror if this were to happen, could be very interesting in the other ocean.


The subsurface warm is expanding eastward and growing stronger as it near the surface. The atmosphere is just lagging behind.
Quoting 800. yoboi:



Can you please produce a list of names of the 95% of scientist that support your claim of AGW???


Can you please stop asking for scientists to violate respondent confidentiality? This is intro level social science ethics, Yoboi. Take your demands for ethical violations elsewhere, it only serves to show your lack of understanding of research guidelines and your own lack of character.
Quoting 800. yoboi:



Can you please produce a list of names of the 95% of scientist that support your claim of AGW???

The only scientists I mentioned were the ones you named. I don't get hung up on the people. I'm interested in the evidence...which is why I talk about it. ;-)

For future reference, AGW is a scientific theory. It's not my "claim." It is a theory well-supported by the available evidence.
Quoting 800. yoboi:



Can you please produce a list of names of the 95% of scientist that support your claim of AGW???

What's this? Are you ailing in some way? Whatya payin?
Somewhere, the rice fields are soggy seems.

LOL
how will the blogs look once classic goes away?...will they look the same as today??
807. yoboi
Quoting 802. Naga5000:



Can you please stop asking for scientists to violate respondent confidentiality? This is intro level social science ethics, Yoboi. Take your demands for ethical violations elsewhere, it only serves to show your lack of understanding of research guidelines and your own lack of character.


scientific papers that I read usually show the data used for the study....when making such a statement I would like to see the data...It could very well be that 100% of scientist did not participate in the study...if 100 responded out of thousands and 95% said yes that is a different story...But what I see on here and elsewhere is that 95% of scientist agree with AGW....Which is very deceitful....You and others would be proper in saying 95% that responded to a survey agree with AGW...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TODAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A WEAKENING AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS
BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD IT WILL DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME...SO EXPECT TO SEE THE
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO ALSO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY SEE MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AT BEST MOVING ONSHORE FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. BEYOND THIS WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER NVA IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SHORT WAVE MAY ACTUALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF THIS CONVECTION AND
ALSO KEEP OVERALL COVERAGE LOWER...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST CLOSER TO A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH
SOME OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA
ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE NVA SHOULD WEAKEN. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TO INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&
809. jpsb
Quoting 777. SouthTampa:

This means squat. Ted Kacynski got a Ph.D. in mathematics at Michigan after graduating from Harvard. He was also a professor at Cal. That's a shiny resume... He was also an ideological nut job.

Well since yall are bad mouthing my Senator


Cruz attended high school at Faith West Academy in Katy, Texas,[26] and later graduated from Second Baptist High School in Houston as valedictorian in 1988

========================
At a high school or university graduation, the valedictorian traditionally gives a farewell speech, called a valedictory. This person is almost always the student in the class with the very best academic record
----------------------------------

Cruz graduated cum laude from Princeton University with a Bachelor of Arts in Public Policy[29] from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs in 1992.[4][6] While at Princeton, he competed for the American Whig-Cliosophic Society's Debate Panel and won the top speaker award at both the 1992 U.S. National Debating Championship and the 1992 North American Debating Championship.[30] In 1992, he was named U.S. National Speaker of the Year, as well as Team of the Year, with his debate partner, David Panton.[30] Cruz was a semi-finalist at the 1995 World Universities Debating Championship, making him Princeton’s highest-ranked debater at the championship.[31][32] Princeton's debate team later named their annual novice championship after Cruz.[31]
-------------------------------------

cum laude, meaning "with praise" or "with honor"

-------------------------------------
Cruz attended Harvard Law School, graduating magna cum laude in 1995 with a Juris Doctor degree.[6][35] While at Harvard Law, he was a primary editor of the Harvard Law Review, and executive editor of the Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy, and a founding editor of the Harvard Latino Law Review.[4] Referring to Cruz's time as a student at Harvard Law, Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant
-------------------------------------

A rarely used distinction, maxima cum laude, "with very great honor"

-------------------------------------
Cruz has authored 70 United States Supreme Court briefs and presented 43 oral arguments, including nine before the United States Supreme Court. Cruz's record of having argued before the Supreme Court nine times is more than any practicing lawyer in Texas or any current member of Congress
-------------------------------------

I'd say ted Cruz's resume is considerably better then Ted Kacynski's. Yall might want to rethink attacking Cruz's intelligence or his character.
Very Interesting! 2004's El Nino event must have been a very weak one, at best.

Did the El Nino 2004 event end by the time Aug-Sept (2004) rolled around? Of course we remember Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne - all hurricanes bashing Florida! Residents of NW Florida were surprised at the strength of Ivan, because it appeared it might make landfall further to the west. Ivan turned NNE in the final hours before landfall, putting the FL panhandle in the worst part of the hurricane. And Charley also turned more to the east than expected, sparing the Tampa Bay area. Charlotte county to Orlando got slammed!

It seems that El Nino 2015 is going to be a lot stronger than 2004.

Quoting 414. hydrus:

In 2004, El Nino was declared September 10th of that year. We did not even get a named storm until July 31, we know the rest..

First system formed July 31, 2004
Last system dissipated December 5, 2004
Strongest storm Ivan %u2013 910 mbar (hPa) (26.88 inHg), 165 mph (270 km/h)
Total depressions 16
Total storms 15
Hurricanes 9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 6
Total fatalities 3,270
Total damage $57.37 billion (2004 USD)



Quoting 390. Stormwatch247:

Hello, El Nino!

Although El Nino might suppress Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015, we still have to keep a close watch in our own back yard! The GOM is still very warm. The SW Atlantic might also get activity.


Some recent El Nino years still featured tropical cyclone landfalls in the US:

2009 - Claudette & Ida
2006 - Alberto & Ernesto
2002 - Isidore & Lili


El Nino Events in the past, hurricane landfalls:

1997 - Danny
1992 - Andrew
1991 - Bob
1983 - Alicia
1972 - Agnes
1965 - Betsy
1957 - Audrey (already mentioned in the article)

Let's not forget our friends in the Caribbean Islands, Bahamas, and Bermuda - they could get hit anytime. El Nino or not.

Always have a plan.



Quoting 809. jpsb:

I'd say ted Cruz's resume is considerably better then Ted Kacynski's. Yall might want to rethink attacking Cruz's intelligence or his character.


His character is deficient. Simply put, he lies. No amount of Latin will fix that.
Quoting 807. yoboi:



scientific papers that I read usually show the data used for the study....when making such a statement I would like to see the data...It could very well be that 100% of scientist did not participate in the study...if 100 responded out of thousands and 95% said yes that is a different story...But what I see on here and elsewhere is that 95% of scientist agree with AGW....Which is very deceitful....You and others would be proper in saying 95% that responded to a survey agree with AGW...


Depends on what study you are looking at, since there are multiple studies using different methodologies, now doesn't it? I haven't seen any survey based study where respondents are named. As for the database search studies, the data is in the supplementary materials. Maybe you should focus more on reading and less on demanding others do your homework.

Protip: You actually have to read the papers, you can't rely on conspiracy climate web sites to interpret it for you.

Quoting 807. yoboi:



scientific papers that I read usually show the data used for the study....when making such a statement I would like to see the data...It could very well be that 100% of scientist did not participate in the study...if 100 responded out of thousands and 95% said yes that is a different story...But what I see on here and elsewhere is that 95% of scientist agree with AGW....Which is very deceitful....You and others would be proper in saying 95% that responded to a survey agree with AGW...

How about you provide us with a list of scientists who actually dispute AGW/Greenhouse Gas theory? That would take up far less space on the page.
I like Cruz best when He is reading us Dr. Suess.
LOL! Climate Change is for real! Um .... we had Ice Ages before. It's people and politicians who politicized the term! Mother Nature is going to do what she wants to do... no matter what we call it !!!
818. yoboi
Quoting 812. Naga5000:



Depends on what study you are looking at now doesn't it? Maybe you should focus more on reading and less on demanding others do your homework. Protip: You actually have to read the papers, you can't rely on conspiracy climate web sites to interpret it for you.


I have read the papers....that's why you are anyone else can't provide a list of names....Because the methodology used is questionable at best....I am not arguing over this anymore....
On dropping classic wunderground May 4th,..

yo'

Well then some of yer Tech Gurus best get to werking on the New Sites radar cuz it was devastated in that last upgrade.

It no werkie, it cant remember setttings, and one cant post a animated loop.

So get with it over dere will yas?
Quoting 818. yoboi:



I have read the papers....that's why you are anyone else can't provide a list of names....Because the methodology used is questionable at best....I am not arguing over this anymore....


urp,,

Burp,

& DERP'
Quoting 818. yoboi:



I have read the papers....that's why you are anyone else can't provide a list of names....Because the methodology used is questionable at best....I am not arguing over this anymore....


Yawn, more assertions with no backing evidence. You have all ready shown yourself to be deficient at the very basics of social science research, do us all a favor, don't then question the methodology of something that is way over your head.
I find it odd folks are worrying about the globe getting warmer,in my opinion if nature was going the Other way..towards ice age society as we know it would vanish..imagine if you will glaciers reaching down to say Alabama...bring on global warming mother nature.
this is a vary bad idea for smart phone user and tablet yet user the new layout works well with laptops but sucks for phones and tablet i use Classic Wunderground for the blogs on my phone has the new layout dos not work well for it but i ues the new layout for my laptops has i like it


Link
Quoting 816. Stormwatch247:

LOL! Climate Change is for real! Um .... we had Ice Ages before. It's people and politicians who politicized the term! Mother Nature is going to do what she wants to do... no matter what we call it !!!

Enters religion again.

Well, all is subject to Her Laws. Including, e.g., Laws of radiation physics. So Mother Nature's creation 'homo sapiens' is emitting huge amounts of CO2 in the air and, entirely according to Her Laws, the climate must warm up and, lo and behold! it IS warming up.
CO2's ability to absorb Long Wave Radiation is not affected by any God Speak.

mmmm, K ?
Quoting 821. jpsb:



The satellite data supports Ted Cruz's assertion that there has been no significant warming in 17+ years. Satellite data is real hard data from the entire globe. Some think it is better data then ground based data.

There are also plenty of PhD's that agree with Cruz. The science is not settled. You are not justified in calling him a liar simply because he does agree with you.




Except that satellite data doesn't measure surface temperature, it doesn't cover the the poles, and it has problems with land height, and issues with clouds, and the problems with satellite drift, and time of day observations. When you purposefully cherry pick data that agrees with your premise and IGNORE the rest of the data as it doesn't, you are lying plain and simple. Move along.
Imagine if you will..nature goes the other way.......................For example, at the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice, average temperatures were only 5 to 9 degrees cooler than today...be careful what you wish for.
Its Wet along the Gulf Coast! AGAIN.

I really would rather talk about WEATHER on here, instead of politics .... that is what this blog is about.
Quoting 829. Stormwatch247:

Its Wet along the Gulf Coast! AGAIN.

I really would rather talk about WEATHER on here, instead of politics .... that is what this blog is about.
doc or mods will step in soon I imagine..
Quoting 816. Stormwatch247:

LOL! Climate Change is for real! Um .... we had Ice Ages before. It's people and politicians who politicized the term! Mother Nature is going to do what she wants to do... no matter what we call it !!!

There is no female persona or entity in the sky acting out her weatherly whims. Nature doesn't "want" anything.
Quoting 821. jpsb:



The satellite data supports Ted Cruz's assertion that there has been no significant warming in 17+ years. Satellite data is real hard data from the entire globe. Some think it is better data then ground based data.

There are also plenty of PhD's that agree with Cruz. The science is not settled. You are not justified in calling him a liar simply because he does agree with you.



Actually, some think data from the back of the moon are the best really. Anything, anything!! but direct surface thermometer measurements and of course what with all that melting ice the elves must 've lowered the freezing point of water which is a Big Secret.

You probably missed out on the fact those sat data have been shown to possess a fatal flaw (the mistake being so bad that I for one suspect the usual malice involved).
Quoting 823. LargoFl:

I find it odd folks are worrying about the globe getting warmer,in my opinion if nature was going the Other way..towards ice age society as we know it would vanish..imagine if you will glaciers reaching down to say Alabama...bring on global warming mother nature.


You should probably read some studies on why a warmer world is bad for the oceans, for coastal cities and populations, for staple crops like wheat and soy, and understand this isn't a contest between a warmer and cooler world, it is a rapid change from an equilibrium climate that has allowed humans to flourish with the given plant and animal diversity, a rapid deviation from this in ANY direction will cause major upheavals. No one is talking about cooling because something major would have to happen to cause it. CO2 is a GHG, unless basic physics have changed, putting more of it into the atmosphere warms the planet, not cools.
Quoting 819. Patrap:

On dropping classic wunderground May 4th,..

yo'

Well then some of yer Tech Gurus best get to werking on the New Sites radar cuz it was devastated in that last upgrade.

It no werkie, it cant remember setttings, and one cant post a animated loop.

So get with it over dere will yas?



What he trying to say is:

Please have some of your technical experts take a look at the new RADAR sites, because they don't seem to be working properly after the last upgrade.

And Juan can't post an animated loop, but that's on him.

Please address these issues soonest.
Quoting 830. LargoFl:

doc or mods will step in soon I imagine..
Doc?

If yer referring to Masters, he keeps a Hands off policy on Blog Matters.
Quoting 830. LargoFl:

doc or mods will step in soon I imagine..

Yes. Climate revisionists have no place here. Kick 'm out systematically, they destroy good blogs but the fault is with the moderators of such blogs who let them do their doubt merchandising.
Quoting 801. Drakoen:



The subsurface warm is expanding eastward and growing stronger as it near the surface. The atmosphere is just lagging behind.
Yes but the surface temps are warming to as we move into the late spring summer months. It is moving eastward but at a slower rate than predicted and maybe won't have that big of a warming effect on the surface waters as some people believe.
Daddy and Mamma Nature are going to do what they want to do (fixed gender phrase as not to offend anyone!). Hehe. Just a little humor this morning.

And it is SO WET along the Gulf Coast this morning. Thank You El Nino 2015.

Quoting 829. Stormwatch247:

Its Wet along the Gulf Coast! AGAIN.

I really would rather talk about WEATHER on here, instead of politics .... that is what this blog is about.


No one is preventing you from talking about whatever you want. Some of us prefer not to let science get trashed on the forum we like to visit.
Quoting 828. LargoFl:

Imagine if you will..nature goes the other way.......................For example, at the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice, average temperatures were only 5 to 9 degrees cooler than today...be careful what you wish for.

Nobody's wishing for that, though, so...
Quoting 834. FBMinFL:



What he trying to say is:

Please have some of your technical experts take a look at the new RADAR sites, because they don't seem to be working properly after the last upgrade.

And Juan can't post an animated loop, but that's on him.


You are what you are.

LOL

We use classic for the embed here.

Sport.


Try to keep up will yas?

SCIENCE... and weather ARE AWESOME. Have learned a lot from everyone on here. Have been studying hurricanes for decades, and want to know more about why hurricanes do unpredictable things, such as rapid intensification, and unexpected track changes, and more. Have lived through many of them ; )


Quoting 840. Naga5000:



No one is preventing you from talking about whatever you want. Some of us prefer not to let science get trashed on the forum we like to visit.
i thought this was worth repeating.......great wrap up naga......

what i think is amusing...is that if there was a concern about global cooling...the same people who oppose the science of AGW...would oppose the science of cooling

You should probably read some studies on why a warmer world is bad for the oceans, for coastal cities and populations, for staple crops like wheat and soy, and understand this isn't a contest between a warmer and cooler world, it is a rapid change from an equilibrium climate that has allowed humans to flourish with the given plant and animal diversity, a rapid deviation from this in ANY direction will cause major upheavals. No one is talking about cooling because something major would have to happen to cause it. CO2 is a GHG, unless basic physics have changed, putting more of it into the atmosphere warms the planet, not cools.
Quoting 813. SeriouslySushi:



How about you provide us with a list of scientists who actually dispute AGW/Greenhouse Gas theory? That would take up far less space on the page.
I don't think this guy understands statistics.
Quoting 809. jpsb:


I'd say ted Cruz's resume is considerably better then Ted Kacynski's. Yall might want to rethink attacking Cruz's intelligence or his character.

Y'all might want to rethink confusing "resume" with "intelligence". If you actually understand what I wrote, you'd realize the argument that I was putting forth did not compare the relative intelligence of Cruz and Kacynski. Instead you foist this thick response of copy and pasted definitions of valedictorian and sumacum laude. (Whether one thinks a law degree from a prestigious university is better than a Ph.D. in Mathematics from a different prestigious university is superior, is a different matter. And I will avoid that trap)

Nobody gives a rat's [redacted] that Cruz can orate an argument. My family is loaded with people with advanced degrees in Medicine, Law, Chemistry, and Arts. My step father argued in front of the SCOTUS. Does that mean we can act as authorities on Climate? No...

No matter how well presented Cruz is, he's flat out wrong on climate change. You cannot polish that [redacted] of an argument with any amount of word-smithing or shiny suits.
848. jpsb
Quoting 833. Naga5000:



You should probably read some studies on why a warmer world is bad for the oceans, for coastal cities and populations, for staple crops like wheat and soy, and understand this isn't a contest between a warmer and cooler world, it is a rapid change from an equilibrium climate that has allowed humans to flourish with the given plant and animal diversity, a rapid deviation from this in ANY direction will cause major upheavals. No one is talking about cooling because something major would have to happen to cause it. CO2 is a GHG, unless basic physics have changed, putting more of it into the atmosphere warms the planet, not cools.


The last interglacial, the Eemian was much warmer and the Earth survived (so did we humans).

So far the ice cores can only provide us a glimpse into the Eemian warm period. But we can already tell that Eemian climate was significantly warmer than the climate of the current Holocene interglacial - probably about 5°C warmer.

http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/clima techange/glacial_interglacial/eemian/


There is considerable debate on the amount of forcing CO2 all by itself can cause, plus as of now no, zip, zero, nada feed back (topical hot spots) has been detected.

Ice Age

email page

print page






The Coming of a New Ice Age



To search other articles and papers on this and other subjects, go to "Client log-in" above and enter "public@winningreen.com" and for password enter "free".






BY GERALD E. MARSH


CHICAGO — Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age.

What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don’t know.

Even if all the temperature increase over the last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of a little over one degree Fahrenheit — an increase well within natural variations over the last few thousand years.

While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the next century would cause humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be within our ability to adapt.

Entering a new ice age, however, would be catastrophic for the continuation of modern civilization.

One has only to look at maps showing the extent of the great ice sheets during the last Ice Age to understand what a return to ice age conditions would mean. Much of Europe and North-America were covered by thick ice, thousands of feet thick in many areas and the world as a whole was much colder.

The last “little” Ice Age started as early as the 14th century when the Baltic Sea froze over followed by unseasonable cold, storms, and a rise in the level of the Caspian Sea. That was followed by the extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland and the loss of grain cultivation in Iceland. Harvests were even severely reduced in Scandinavia And this was a mere foreshadowing of the miseries to come.

By the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, wiping out farms and entire villages. In England, the River Thames froze during the winter, and in 1780, New York Harbor froze. Had this continued, history would have been very different. Luckily, the decrease in solar activity that caused the Little Ice Age ended and the result was the continued flowering of modern civilization.

There were very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago when Earth’s climate entered an unusual period of instability. Starting about a million years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years, separated by relatively short interglacial perioods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Before the onset of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earth’s history, it was far warmer than it is today.

Indeed, the Sun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large land plants have flourished. Both of these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest level in Earth’s long history.

Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels drop to a little less than twice what they are today.

It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacial period. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach.

So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely.

NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?

We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.



Gerald Marsh is a retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration. Readers may e-mail him at gemarsh@uchicago.edu




The WHOLE meat of that Op=ed heartland drivel that matters LARGO.

We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.

Radar loop using new WU.

Wow. I can understand why many posters go "Ghost" when there isn't much going on weather wise.
Quoting 843. Patrap:



You are what you are.

LOL

We use classic for the embed here.

Sport.


Try to keep up will yas?



Most definitely. I think the Powers that Be aren't considering that we'll not be able to get the NOLA wind azimuth profile during times of Strife, without some immediate intervention!

The horror! The horror!

And please LARGO, post the source of yer drivel so we dont have to.

That mousing over yer text is getting tiresome bro'.

winninggreen.com

Quoting 821. jpsb:



The satellite data supports Ted Cruz's assertion that there has been no significant warming in 17 years. Satellite data is real hard data from the entire globe. Some think it is better data then ground based data.

There are also plenty of PhD's that agree with Cruz. The science is not settled. You are not justified in calling him a liar simply because he does not agree with you.



No, the satellite data do not support Cruz. There are two satellite data sets: UAH and RSS. UAH says it's been warming. That agrees with all other data sets.

But that aside, RSS has issues which explain it's lower readings. So it's not reliable.

Ted Cruz is a liar wrt to climate science, as I have amply demonstrated. The fact that some agree with his lie is of no relevance. He lied. He disregarded the overwhelming evidence against him and cherry-picked one faulty data set over one cherry picked time period. The time cherry pick is evident easily by just looking at RSS from 1999 to present:


Oooh, look! Now RSS says it's warming. Cruz is a liar. Deal with it as best you can and have a good day.
come to my blog on the matter

poll Time would you pay a premium service too keep Classic Wunderground

and tell me what you think of the idea

Link
re: # 854

Well,

We lost 3 local lives to flash flooding including a 3 and 6 year old so Im really glad yer up on my postings here.

Now 9 years today.

Quoting jpsb:


The last interglacial, the Eemian was much warmer and the Earth survived (so did we humans).
Yes. Because a world consisting of a few scattered tribes of knuckle-dragging proto-humans living off whatever nuts and berries and rodents they could scrounge up in the African savanna is exactly the same as a world packed with 8 billion people utterly reliant on an infrastructure that is itself utterly dependent on a stable climate that is beginning to go haywire.

Do denialists ever really listen to themselves? I mean, really listen?
Quoting 816. Stormwatch247:

LOL! Climate Change is for real! Um .... we had Ice Ages before. It's people and politicians who politicized the term! Mother Nature is going to do what she wants to do... no matter what we call it !!!

Hmmm! Let me try that logic on another problem and see how it fares.

LOL! Death is for real! Um...we had death before. It's people and politicians who politicized the term. Mother Nature is going to do what she wants to do...no matter what we call it!!!

So, I guess all the murderers in prison should be turned loose. After all, every one of their victims were going to die.
Quoting 832. cRRKampen:


Actually, some think data from the back of the moon are the best really. Anything, anything!! but direct surface thermometer measurements and of course what with all that melting ice the elves must 've lowered the freezing point of water which is a Big Secret.

You probably missed out on the fact those sat data have been shown to possess a fatal flaw (the mistake being so bad that I for one suspect the usual malice involved).

Wasn't the claim "there's been no warming for 16 years" all the rage in 2014? Now it's 17... That's funny business (euphemism for dishonest [redacted]). You take a year that is a record warm year (1998) and draw a line from that specific point and voila! no global warming. Its cherry picking. It's dishonest. Either you are intelligent and can see that this is poor methodology or you are dishonest (euphemism for lying sack of [redacted]). I tend to think Cruz is educated well enough to understand what he is doing, therefore the later.
Quoting 858. Patrap:

re: # 854

Well,

We lost 3 local lives to flash flooding including a 3 and 6 year old so Im really glad yer up on my postings here.

Now 9 years today.




thoughts and prayers
Quoting 859. Neapolitan:

Yes. Because a world consisting of a few scattered tribes of knuckle-dragging proto-humans living off whatever nuts and berries and rodents they could scrounge up in the African savanna is exactly the same as a world packed with 8 billion people utterly reliant on an infrastructure that is itself utterly dependent on a stable climate that is beginning to go haywire.

Quoted just because it can't be said often enough.
Quoting 848. jpsb:



The last interglacial, the Eemian was much warmer and the Earth survived (so did we humans).

So far the ice cores can only provide us a glimpse into the Eemian warm period. But we can already tell that Eemian climate was significantly warmer than the climate of the current Holocene interglacial - probably about 5°C warmer.

http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/clima techange/glacial_interglacial/eemian/


There is considerable debate on the amount of forcing CO2 all by itself can cause, plus as of now no, zip, zero, nada feed back (topical hot spots) has been detected.


I wasn't aware the humans of 150,000 years ago had such a huge population that was dependent on factory farming and mass agriculture, one that had power plants and electricity, big cities, mass transit, global communication. I must have missed that in the history books. Or more reasonably, it is not a good comparison between ancient humans and contemporary society.

Again, learning why the Eemian is a poor analogue for the current warming is also important, I have posted that for you before, but you either willfully ignore the links or simply do not read them.

As for hotspots, you should probably keep up with the latest research which one again, shows the satellite data is problematic, especially over the tropics.

Anything else
Quoting 815. Patrap:

I like Cruz best when He is reading us Dr. Suess.





Sure you do! It's on yer level!
VIVA LE WU REVOLUTION !!!!


KEEP DA CLASSIC SITE !!!!








Quoting 851. Patrap:

The WHOLE meat of that Op=ed heartland drivel that matters LARGO.

We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.




Most of the denialist posters here fit into the science denial typology associated with strict free market adherence. It is simply biased thinking that they cannot get over.
From the previous blog (in reference to the use of RSS satellite data and excluding all other data sets):

jpsb posted this graph:



Several members responded strongly, stating the data set is the sole outlier, including Misanthropist:

Quoting 421. Misanthroptimist:


The number of ways that that is dishonest is fairly impressive considering you included no text.

For starters, you use only one data set. Let's see what some of the other data sets have to say, including the other (more reliable satellite data set):


You chose the only data set that shows what you like...and then you cherry picked time periods to top it off. 2000.05 Really? I forget, was that a Tuesday or a Wednesday? LOL


It's likely that this assertion of RSS representing the 'state of things' will have to be responded to again, and again, and again.
Quoting 867. Naga5000:



Most of the denialist posters here fit into the science denial typology associated with strict free market adherence. It is simply biased thinking that they cannot get over.



Well put as thats my interp on that Group.
870. yoboi
Quoting 859. Neapolitan:

Yes. Because a world consisting of a few scattered tribes of knuckle-dragging proto-humans living off whatever nuts and berries and rodents they could scrounge up in the African savanna is exactly the same as a world packed with 8 billion people utterly reliant on an infrastructure that is itself utterly dependent on a stable climate that is beginning to go haywire.

Do denialists ever really listen to themselves? I mean, really listen?


With a warming climate the population has increased....I think we all know what a cooling climate will lead to....
Seems Im over my writers block now that we have a internal Classic Crisis among the site.

I wont have it.

A new entry.

A classic revolution

Quoting 870. yoboi:



With a warming climate the population has increased....I think we all know what a cooling climate will lead to....


More snow cones?
873. bwi
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14 /fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewable s

The race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there's no going back.
The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels, according to an analysis presented Tuesday at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit in New York. The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added.

...

The price of wind and solar power continues to plummet, and is now on par or cheaper than grid electricity in many areas of the world. Solar, the newest major source of energy in the mix, makes up less than 1 percent of the electricity market today but will be the world’s biggest single source by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.
Quoting 872. Naga5000:



More snow cones?
Animated mammoths and sloths?
876. yoboi
Quoting 872. Naga5000:



More snow cones?


Had to laugh at that one....
877. bwi
Quoting 859. Neapolitan:

Yes. Because a world consisting of a few scattered tribes of knuckle-dragging proto-humans living off whatever nuts and berries and rodents they could scrounge up in the African savanna is exactly the same as a world packed with 8 billion people utterly reliant on an infrastructure that is itself utterly dependent on a stable climate that is beginning to go haywire.

Do denialists ever really listen to themselves? I mean, really listen?


No, they're just getting paid to create confusion and diversion and distraction, not to make any sense!
Did u feel dat too?

Seems a new entry here is imminent.

: P
Quoting 872. Naga5000:



More snow cones?


YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 870. yoboi:



With a warming climate the population has increased....I think we all know what a cooling climate will lead to....

That glass of water really refreshed me! Therefore, I'll drink three gallons of water.

Logic. How does it work?
Quoting 864. Naga5000:



I wasn't aware the humans of 150,000 years ago had such a huge population that was dependent on factory farming and mass agriculture, one that had power plants and electricity, big cities, mass transit, global communication. I must have missed that in the history books. Or more reasonably, it is not a good comparison between ancient humans and contemporary society.

Again, learning why the Eemian is a poor analogue for the current warming is also important, I have posted that for you before, but you either willfully ignore the links or simply do not read them.

As for hotspots, you should probably keep up with the latest research which one again, shows the satellite data is problematic, especially over the tropics.

Anything else

Yeah, it's funny, isn't it, when people say how we survived before? If we all lived in caves, now, and hunted and gathered, it wouldn't be a problem.
About time for a new entry, these people are getting restless, seem to be turning on one another, could get ugly. LOL
Quoting 797. Misanthroptimist:


Nonsense. History has shown us that the Scientific Method can teach us more about Nature than any other means yet discovered. The Scientific Method is ruled ultimately by valid evidence (and lines of valid evidence). That evidence and several lines of evidence are pointing one way -toward the current warming being the product of human activity. There is no alternate hypothesis or theory.

Whether someone was laughed at 100, 200, or 1,000 years ago is immaterial. Einstein and Darwin weren't right because someone laughed at them. They were right because the evidence supported their theories.


Yeah, they laughed at Einstein and Darwin, they also laughed at Bozo the clown. We all know Yoboi is no Einstein or Darwin, so what's left?
884. yoboi
Quoting 880. Misanthroptimist:


That glass of water really refreshed me! Therefore, I'll drink three gallons of water.

Logic. How does it work?


It was lost with the 95% survey....
Quoting 882. WeatherBAC:

About time for a new entry, these people are getting restless, seem to be turning on one another, could get ugly. LOL

Don't you mean 'uglier'? The blog does have a certain 'Lord of the Flies' feel to it today...
Quoting 877. bwi:



No, they're just getting paid to create confusion and diversion and distraction, not to make any sense!


The blog could use something like this:

Scientists develop algorithm that can auto-ban internet trolls

Researchers at Cornell University claim to be able to identify internet trolls with more than 80% AUC*, positing the possibility of creating automated methods to identify or even auto-ban forum and comment-thread pests.

Justin Cheng, Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil and Jure Leskovec submitted the paper Antisocial Behavior in Online Discussion Communities [PDF] in early April, which details the findings from an 18-month study of banned commenters over three high-traffic communities: news giant cnn.com, political hub breitbart.com and the vocal gaming communities at ign.com.

The study, which was partly-funded by Google and had the cooperation of the Disqus commenting ecosphere, compared anti-social users (‘Future Banned Users’ or FBUs) ‘destined to be permanently banned after joining the community with those joiners who are not permanently banned (Never Banned Users or NBUs) in the study-period.

More ...
Oh I often think of you
The hour before it rains
Across the broken days
That brought me home again

You walked into my life
Awoke my spirit soul
You saved me from my deep
Farewell my wanderer's home

Oh! The life upon your lips
Your heart could not foresee
The tangle I became
That brings me home again

Embrace another fall
My year is worn and cold
To you I bare my soul
My summer's almost gone

Oh, so blue must turn to grey
And out upon the shire
All through the frost and rain
I make my home
What is classic?
Quoting 885. LAbonbon:


Don't you mean 'uglier'? The blog does have a certain 'Lord of the Flies' feel to it today...


Good point, be careful of what you say people or you will be absorbed into the ugliness.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I would ignore him. Guy really has turned into a Troll.


Did you read my earlier link?
Link

I thought you would be interested in it.
Quoting 884. yoboi:



It was lost with the 95% survey....

Which survey would that be?
Quoting 890. WeatherBAC:



Good point, be careful of what you say people or you will be absorbed into the ugliness.


Did you feel dat der cajin gas?
"Those who spread the misinformation and outright lies of the climate denial industry, are useful idiots of some of history’s coldest and greediest killers."

― Peter Sinclair
Quoting Misanthroptimist:

That glass of water really refreshed me! Therefore, I'll drink three gallons of water.

Logic. How does it work?


If I drank 3 gallons of water I'd be really pissed off...
Quoting 882. WeatherBAC:

About time for a new entry, these people are getting restless, seem to be turning on one another, could get ugly. LOL

Quiet hurricane season prognosed, panic struck...
Quoting 891. Sfloridacat5:



Did you read my earlier link?
Link

I thought you would be interested in it.


Good read!
The "truth" is the LAST thing the Clowns seek.

.."the car goes round in circles, the road remains the same"

Quoting 886. JohnLonergan:



The blog could use something like this:

Scientists develop algorithm that can auto-ban internet trolls

Researchers at Cornell University claim to be able to identify internet trolls with more than 80% AUC*, positing the possibility of creating automated methods to identify or even auto-ban forum and comment-thread pests.

Justin Cheng, Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil and Jure Leskovec submitted the paper Antisocial Behavior in Online Discussion Communities [PDF] in early April, which details the findings from an 18-month study of banned commenters over three high-traffic communities: news giant cnn.com, political hub breitbart.com and the vocal gaming communities at ign.com.

The study, which was partly-funded by Google and had the cooperation of the Disqus commenting ecosphere, compared anti-social users (‘Future Banned Users’ or FBUs) ‘destined to be permanently banned after joining the community with those joiners who are not permanently banned (Never Banned Users or NBUs) in the study-period.

More ...
I disagree with this. Certain people could be banned for disagreeing with the set norm. JMO however
Dewpoints up near 80 in some areas today. This is July type humidity.


" Classic Wunderground will no longer be available after May 4, 2015. Learn More"

I will no longer be available to view Wunderground.

Good luck with your schtik~
Quoting 886. JohnLonergan:



The blog could use something like this:

Scientists develop algorithm that can auto-ban internet trolls

Researchers at Cornell University claim to be able to identify internet trolls with more than 80% AUC*, positing the possibility of creating automated methods to identify or even auto-ban forum and comment-thread pests.

Justin Cheng, Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil and Jure Leskovec submitted the paper Antisocial Behavior in Online Discussion Communities [PDF] in early April, which details the findings from an 18-month study of banned commenters over three high-traffic communities: news giant cnn.com, political hub breitbart.com and the vocal gaming communities at ign.com.

The study, which was partly-funded by Google and had the cooperation of the Disqus commenting ecosphere, compared anti-social users (‘Future Banned Users’ or FBUs) ‘destined to be permanently banned after joining the community with those joiners who are not permanently banned (Never Banned Users or NBUs) in the study-period.

More ...


Things like that make me nervous if only because you never can be certain the "right" criteria will be applied. For example, I'm generally a thoughtful and informed commenter on the various websites I frequent. Yet for some reason TripAdvisor, of all places, deletes my posts from time to time. I (almost) never have any idea why. Doesn't happen to me anywhere but on there . . . .
Cape of 3500 and a lift index of -10 right now across the interior of FL. Going to get very active soon.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Good read!


I thought it was up your alley. Interesting read about how there is a significant relationship between the (AWP - Atlantic Warm Pool) and the length of the wet season in Florida.

Quoting 901. MontanaZephyr:

" Classic Wunderground will no longer be available after May 4, 2015. Learn More"

I will no longer be available to view Wunderground.

Good luck with your schtik~


Classic is much better. Really don't understand the push for a new site. TWC pulling the strings I guess. Nobody could match how Doc had this site set up originally.
Das Boomers developing quickly now,

Flood Watch extended to 7pm

Orlando area over to the East Coast of FL is really primed for big thunderstorms this afternoon. If you here thunder in the distance then get in doors as the lightning has been pretty intense lately in areas.
Classic WU is for the 90s. The current improvements to the site are much better. Did have some issues with posting radar animation loops and zoomed loops the last time I tried. Not sure whether or not that has been fixed.
Record Report
Statement as of 02:01 am CDT on April 15, 2015

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at New Orleans...

a record rainfall of 3.35 inch(es) was set at New Orleans yesterday.

This breaks the old record of 2.5 set in 1991.
Dat warmer atmosphere we have created holds more Water Vapor and fuels mo chaos.

The future is bright.

ppfffth'

Orleans Parish Severe Watches & Warnings

Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 5:02 AM CDT on April 15, 2015

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Ascension... Assumption... East Baton Rouge... Iberville...
Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
Orleans... southern Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. James... St.
John The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper
Terrebonne and West Baton Rouge. In southern Mississippi...
Hancock... Harrison... Jackson and Pearl River.

* Through this evening

* showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today through
the early evening hours. While coverage is anticipated to be
somewhat less than what occurred Tuesday... rainfall can become
torrential at times. Localized additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches will be possible. Many areas of southeast Louisiana
and the Mississippi coast have saturated soils from recent heavy
rainfall... and any additional heavy rainfall will quickly run
off resulting in flash flooding of poorly drained... low lying
areas.

* Areas that see continuous training of heavy rainfall within a
short time could receive flood water to depths that would
impact property and people in those areas. Area creeks...
streams and rivers are also likely to experience rises... and
some may rise to bankfull or flood levels over the next
several days.

* This rainy pattern will persist into the weekend until a cold
front finally moves through the area late Sunday. The Flash
Flood Watch may be extended in time over the next few days.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rainfall that may lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a
very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



24/rr
Quoting 899. Storms306:

I disagree with this. Certain people could be banned for disagreeing with the set norm. JMO however


Yep. I posted an alternative explanation for the cosmological redshift on various science forums, suggesting that the 'Big Bang' was the greatest faux pas in the history of science, and was met with hostility from both posters and moderators. I'm not aware of being banned, but when I recently tried to access one of the forums where the hostility was particularly strong, I get an 'access forbidden from this server' message.

If certain mods on such forums decided to be bloody minded, they could report people like myself as trolls, resulting in a blanket ban on the Internet.
Quoting 800. yoboi:



Can you please produce a list of names of the 95% of scientist that support your claim of AGW???

A good place to start is this Skeptical Science page, as it summarizes the multiple studies/reviews that demonstrate consensus.

Make sure to read it, and click on the links. They have what you keep asking for.

Two of the studies (Powell and Cook, et al) have links to lists of the thousands of published papers that demonstrate climate change/AGW, as well as the papers that don't. The scientists who conducted the studies are listed as authors on these studies. Their names are right there.

These are just two of the studies. There have been additional surveys studies as well.

But honestly, yoboi, you keep asking the same question, and we keep posting the same answer. My question is - why won't you follow the links?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 866. Patrap:

VIVA LE WU REVOLUTION !!!!


KEEP DA CLASSIC SITE !!!!











I too liked the old better format than the new but have adjusted. I still am trying to drum up support for re-establishing the sidebar that shows who is posting what and where and this morning sent a request directly to the WU senior user experience designer... Keeping fingers crossed.
Quoting 902. MaineGuy:



Things like that make me nervous if only because you never can be certain the "right" criteria will be applied. For example, I'm generally a thoughtful and informed commenter on the various websites I frequent. Yet for some reason TripAdvisor, of all places, deletes my posts from time to time. I (almost) never have any idea why. Doesn't happen to me anywhere but on there . . . .

Huh. My comments on Accuweather get deleted...so I very rarely will frequent their site, and I don't bother with their blog posts anymore. I was never rude, so I don't know why I got deleted. And I was using Facebook, so it was my 'real' identity. That's the only place (that I know of) where my comments get deleted...except on rare occasions on here :o
Quoting 872. Naga5000:



More snow cones?
Less need for air conditioning, thus less electrical power use, thus less air pollution, thus less warming. We'll need however to grow more sheep for their wool as the climate cools, and the large flocks of sheep will generate more greenhouse gases, so the climate will warm again and start the cycle over.
Quoting 917. CaneFreeCR:

Less need for air conditioning, thus less electrical power use, thus less air pollution, thus less warming. We'll need however to grow more sheep for their wool as the climate cools, and the large flocks of sheep will generate more greenhouse gases, so the climate will warm again and start the cycle over.
But white sheep will increase the earth's albedo and cause the temperature to rise.
921. MahFL
Quoting 828. LargoFl:

Imagine if you will..nature goes the other way.......................For example, at the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice, average temperatures were only 5 to 9 degrees cooler than today...be careful what you wish for.


I keep saying that too, 3km of ice on top of your house is worse than 1 foot of water.
922. jpsb
The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology held a hearing on Climate Change (Global Warming) click here to watch it.