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Severe Weather Rumbles Eastward; Hail, Wind Widespread on Wednesday

By: Bob Henson 7:36 PM GMT on April 09, 2015

Fast-moving thunderstorms were zipping across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday afternoon, as an upper-level storm accelerated through the region. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center placed a large part of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and lower Great Lakes under an enhanced risk of severe weather for Thursday afternoon and evening (see Figure 1). The day’s first tornado watch was posted for northeast Missouri, southeast Iowa, and far northwest Illinois, effective until 8:00 pm CDT, with a second watch in effect until 11:00 pm CDT for most of northern Illinois and parts of extreme southern Wisconsin and far western Indiana. The strongest and longest-lived tornadoes typically form within discrete supercell thunderstorms, as opposed to squall lines or large thunderstorm clusters. If the line of storms in Iowa and Missouri becomes a solid squall line, the threat of strong tornadoes will diminish along it, but residents in its path should still be prepared for a burst of very heavy rain, high winds, and large hail, with brief tornadoes possible. Other storms could become supercells ahead of the line, particularly in northern Illinois.


Figure 1. Much of the central and eastern U.S. was at risk for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and evening, April 9. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.


Heavy rains and severe weather are again plaguing the Ohio Valley, which has endured several days of large thunderstorm complexes called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) moving along a persistent east-west frontal zone. By Wednesday afternoon, the warm front had shifted to the southern Great Lakes, with temperatures ranging from 40s to its north to 60s and 70s just to its south. However, the final push of this week’s upper-level storm system may still bring one more round of severe storms and heavy rain across parts of Kentucky and West Virginia as well as southern Indiana and Ohio. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued Wednesday afternoon for the upper Ohio Valley, and a solid swatch of flash flood watches extend from the St. Louis area eastward to the Virginia/West Virginia border.

We’ll be covering the severe weather on Thursday afternoon and evening in our experimental Weather Underground live blog.



Figure 2. Preliminary data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center as of late Wednesday is overlaid here on the SPC convective outlook issued on Wednesday afternoon. A supercell thunderstorm in south-central Kansas produced eight tornado reports, with two others in southeast Missouri and western Oklahoma. Thanks to wunderground member TropicalAnalystwx13 for posting this overlay. Additional reports that came in after this graphic was produced can be found on the day’s SPC summary page. Data and imagery: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.


Wednesday’s storms: few tornadoes, but plenty of hail and high wind
The nation was spared major damage on Wednesday despite an extensive arc of severe weather from Texas to North Carolina. The most impressive storms were along the dry line from western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. One long-lived supercell near the intersection of the dry line and the nation-straddling warm front produced several tornadoes near Medicine Lodge, KS. Storm chaser Mike Prendergast captured this impressive cone-shaped tornado near Deerhead, KS, with a faint rainbow visible. Another supercell dropped hail up to 3” in diameter in west-central Oklahoma. Large hail was the favored mode of the day’s severe weather, with more than 200 reports nationwide. Baseball-sized hail was reported in Missouri, Kentucky, and Indiana, as well as Oklahoma,


Figure 3. This hailstone in Sullivan, Missouri, was literally baseball-sized! Image credit: Hanna Findley.


Forecasters had correctly anticipated that the dry-line storms would be sparse but intense, although the coverage was even less than some had expected. Thin high clouds that overspread much of Kansas and Oklahoma cut down on daytime heating and reduced the available instability, which weakened the day’s severe potential somewhat. In addition, a layer of very warm, dry air atop the moist surface air served as a formidable cap for any thunderstorms attempting to draw on the surface air (although some less severe “elevated” thunderstorms did develop above the cap).

Jeff Masters will be posting an update on Friday covering NOAA’s latest El Niño projections and the seasonal hurricane forecasts issued this week by Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Mammatus clouds fill the sky near Slaton, TX, as thunderstorms prowl the Texas South Plains near Lubbock on Wednesday, April 8. Wind gusts as high as 76 mph and heavy blowing dust accompanied the storms. Image credit: Matt Mahalik, Texas Tech University.
Electric Wind Farm
Electric Wind Farm
These were taken NW of Medicine Lodge, Kansas. A tornado warning had been issued, but I was unable to see the funnel cloud touch down.
Storm Crossing
Storm Crossing
Before the Storm
Before the Storm

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Bob! Will that line of storms reach St. Louis or will it be on a weakening trend by then?
Visible Satellite I just posted from the previous blog.
Thanks Dr. Henson.
Good Afternoon Mr. Benson I have a question. Is this severe weather outbreak associated with a Panhandle Hook?
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Thanks for the update Bob! Will that line of storms reach St. Louis or will it be on a weakening trend by then?


Storms should blast through St. Louis later today.
Quoting 1. TimTheWxMan:

Thanks for the update Bob! Will that line of storms reach St. Louis or will it be on a weakening trend by then?


Certainly looks to me as if the line will extend as far south as St. Louis as it charges eastward. Hard to say how intense it'll be at that point, though.
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



Certainly looks to me as if the line will extend as far south as St. Louis as it charges eastward. Hard to say how intense it'll be at that point, though.


Hi Bob, What are your thoughts on the split flow pattern now rearing its head as all models are showing a heavy rain signal from Texas to FL and points in between. Pattern suggest severe weather across the Gulf Coast next week but looks more like a heavy rain threat than anything. I bring this up as Doc did a post about this last week (March 31st) and here it comes. We need the rain here in FL so I welcome this change even if it might come with some severe potential later next week.

GFS precip thru day 16.
Thanks. Hope everyone stay safe, and can't wait for the next blog.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSSTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF PRESCOTT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BLUFF CITY AND WHITE OAK LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 315 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LANEBURG...MORRIS...MOUNT MORIAH...CALE AND READER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SHREVEPORT.
Quoting 9. Sfloridacat5:



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSSTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF PRESCOTT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BLUFF CITY AND WHITE OAK LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 315 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LANEBURG...MORRIS...MOUNT MORIAH...CALE AND READER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SHREVEPORT.



That area is where the deepest moisture is located and I would watch for maybe a intense tornado or 2 from that NE Texas to Southern Ark area.
The southern end is finally starting to fire. I thought down in Arkansas, Louisiana, and N.E. Texas could get going today.
Very high CAPE in that area.
Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Bob, What are your thoughts on the split flow pattern now rearing its head as all models are showing a heavy rain signal from Texas to FL and points in between. Pattern suggest severe weather across the Gulf Coast next week but looks more like a heavy rain threat than anything. I bring this up as Doc did a post about this last week (March 31st) and here it comes. We need the rain here in FL so I welcome this change even if it might come with some severe potential later next week.

I'm sure you're happy about the post tomorrow, since it's about el nino, and I'm happy, because it's about hurricanes. How strong do you think el nino will be during the peak of hurricane season, as well as North Atlantic sst's??
Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Bob, What are your thoughts on the split flow pattern now rearing its head as all models are showing a heavy rain signal from Texas to FL and points in between. Pattern suggest severe weather across the Gulf Coast next week but looks more like a heavy rain threat than anything. I bring this up as Doc did a post about this last week (March 31st) and here it comes. We need the rain here in FL so I welcome this change even if it might come with some severe potential later next week.



Indeed, it looks like the prototypical El Niño split flow may try to set up later this month. More T/C on this in the blog!
Quoting 10. JeffMasters:



Indeed, it looks like the prototypical El Niño split flow may try to set up later this month. More T/C on this in the blog!



Thanks Doc! Doc it has been a hot stretch here in FL as Eric Blake has mentioned the 2nd hottest 45 days on record in Miami probably similar here in Orlando. Any rain to break the heat is much appreciated!
Indeed, it looks like the prototypical El Niño split flow may try to set up later this month. More T/C on this in the blog!


later this month...thanx for the clairification bob


and concluding from the last blog.....BUSTED....lol....have a good one folks....i've got work to do
Quoting 12. Sfloridacat5:

The southern end is finally starting to fire. I thought down in Arkansas, Louisiana, and N.E. Texas could get going today.
Very high CAPE in that area.


Yeah buddy. That is the area to watch for maybe some wedge tornadoes.
Radar out of Shreveport. Lots of action firing across this area.

2015 Hurricane Season Outlook

Scientists at Colorado State University say the Atlantic hurricane season may be the most notable in decades. But not for reasons you may think.
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season may be one of the least active in decades, according to an initial forecast issued Thursday by Colorado State University.

The early outlook released April 9 calls for seven named storms, including three hurricanes, one of which is predicted to attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

This is well below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The outlook, headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach in consultation with long-time hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, is based on a combination of 29 years of statistical predictors, combined with analog seasons exhibiting similar features of sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.
Does this mean a less destructive season?
There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season.

"It is important to note that our - The Weather Channel - forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.," said Dr. Peter Neilley, vice president of Global Forecasting Services at WSI.

The 2014 season featured the fewest number of named storms in 17 years (eight storms), but also featured the strongest landfalling hurricane in the mainland U.S. in six years (Hurricane Arthur on the Outer Banks), and featured two back-to-back hurricane hits on the tiny archipelago of Bermuda (Fay, then Gonzalo).

Furthermore, six of those eight storms became hurricanes, and Gonzalo was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Igor in 2010.
El Nino was first officially declared by NOAA as winter wound down. As of this early April forecast, El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, has been given a 60 percent chance of persisting into the fall, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"Our best estimate is that we will likely have at least a moderate strength El Nino even during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season," said Klotzbach and Gray in the hurricane season outlook.

There is a body of scientific evidence linking the occurrence of El Nino with increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Basin, which is one factor, along with dry air, that limits the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones.

However, exactly where the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters takes place and the magnitude of that warming plays at least a partial role in the number of Atlantic named storms.

- Warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific: lower number of Atlantic tropical cyclones
- Warming in the central equatorial Pacific: higher number of Atlantic tropical cyclones

Klotzbach and Gray found five other hurricane seasons with comparable Atlantic and Pacific sea-surface temperatures both in February-March, as well as what is forecast for August-October: 1957, 1987, 1991, 1993 and 2014. Those years averaged eight named storms, four hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes.

Despite the low numbers in those years, in addition to 2014's Hurricane Arthur, there were two other historic hurricanes during those seasons:

- Hurricane Bob (1991): One of the costliest and most intense New England hurricanes on record ($1.5 billion damage; 17 killed; 5-8 foot storm surge in Rhode Island; waves battered south coasts of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard)

- Hurricane Audrey (1957): Only Category 4 June Atlantic hurricane on record; Seventh deadliest Atlantic hurricane with at least 416 killed.

In short, the exact role El Niño may play in the 2015 season remains uncertain.
Another dead hurricane season on the way.Long summer of nothing weather wise


Numbers of Atlantic Basin named storms, those that attain at least tropical storm strength, hurricanes, and hurricanes of Category 3 intensity forecast by Colorado State University (center column) compared to the 30-year average (left column) and the 2014 season (right column)
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson. We may see a more traditional tornado outbreak between next week and the end of April with a traditional peak of such activity around the 27th or thereabouts. Have to keep a close eye on the models and projected lows coming in over-under the Rockies over the next three or four weeks. Still a record low tornado count so far for the month of March and a relative slow start, tornado wise, for April.
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



Certainly looks to me as if the line will extend as far south as St. Louis as it charges eastward. Hard to say how intense it'll be at that point, though.
It'll be intense inside Scottrade though as Blues/Blackhawks battle for 1st! Hope outside doesn't match, looks like most intense will stay N of I-72, but you never know w/ conditions like this.

To my SW up to 78 w/ 66 dew pt (50 mi mostly N, little E of StL). To my N, 75 w/ 64 dew pt. Press dropped a little more, closing in on 29.65", SW winds gusts now up to 33, still avging in mid teens.
Quoting 28. tampabaymatt:




If model trends hold those precip totals across FL are going to trend higher over the coming days.
Thanks Mr. Henson...Eastern U.S. may get some very cool next week...Refreshing weather for some, not so for others...



Quoting 29. StormTrackerScott:



If model trends hold those precip totals across FL are going to trend higher over the coming days.


I hope that is the case. It has been very dry for the past 6 weeks or so. The Tampa reporting station has already exceeded it's average April rainfall in one day due to one seabreeze storm setting up directly over it and not moving for a while. But, in general, things are very dry.
Quoting 23. help4u:

Another dead hurricane season on the way.Long summer of nothing weather wise
Not really. There is the rest of the worlds weather to observe. Another dead season would be great. There will be active seasons soon enough.
Quoting 14. BobHenson:



Indeed, it looks like the prototypical El Niño split flow may try to set up later this month. More T/C on this in the blog!
Long as it doesnt split anymore of my trees..:)
Quoting BobHenson:


Indeed, it looks like the prototypical El Niño split flow may try to set up later this month. More T/C on this in the blog!


Any word on E pac hurricane. #??
Those increasing SW winds really cleared out cloud cover over us, this time we're not surrounded by a ring of cloud cover. Station to N jumped 2 to 77.
Quoting 31. tampabaymatt:



I hope that is the case. It has been very dry for the past 6 weeks or so. The Tampa reporting station has already exceeded it's average April rainfall in one day due to one seabreeze storm setting up directly over it and not moving for a while. But, in general, things are very dry.


Yeah finally the Split Flow the models where showing last week is here. We should feel the effects of it come Saturday thru all next week. Then a cool down maybe next weekend.
Quoting 34. Tazmanian:



Any word on E pac hurricane. #??


19 12 7 are my numbers for the E-Pac.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 336 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARPER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RICHMOND AND KALONA AROUND 410 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TALLEYRAND...KEOTA AND WEST
CHESTER.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE WASHINGTON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
KEOKUK COUNTY EXPO...BRINTON TIMBER PARK AND MARR PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.
Quoting 23. help4u:

Another dead hurricane season on the way.Long summer of nothing weather wise


I hope you are right.
Off topic, but we have a new interstate as of today.
'Warm blob' in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US
Date:
April 9, 2015
Source:
University of Washington
Summary:
An unusually warm patch of surface water, nicknamed 'the blob' when it emerged in early 2014, is part of a Pacific Ocean pattern that may be affecting everything from West Coast fisheries and water supplies to East Coast snowstorms. The blob is just one element of a broader pattern in the Pacific Ocean whose influence reaches much further -- possibly to include two bone-chilling winters in the Eastern U.S.

Link
Quoting 41. ColoradoBob1:

'Warm blob' in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US
Date:
April 9, 2015
Source:
University of Washington
Summary:
An unusually warm patch of surface water, nicknamed 'the blob' when it emerged in early 2014, is part of a Pacific Ocean pattern that may be affecting everything from West Coast fisheries and water supplies to East Coast snowstorms. The blob is just one element of a broader pattern in the Pacific Ocean whose influence reaches much further -- possibly to include two bone-chilling winters in the Eastern U.S.

Link


Grothar should be proud...
Well that was a entertaining last 5 days of the 12Z Euro Control run! If you have access check it out.
Greatest mass extinction driven by acidic oceans, study finds
Date:
April 9, 2015
Source:
University of Edinburgh
Summary:
Changes to the Earth's oceans, caused by extreme volcanic activity, triggered the greatest extinction of all time, a study suggests. The amount of carbon added to the atmosphere that triggered the mass extinction was probably greater than today's fossil fuel reserves, the team says. However, the carbon was released at a rate similar to modern emissions. This fast rate of release was a critical factor driving ocean acidification, researchers say.

Link
Make sure you have score card, you can't keep track of the mass extinctions without a score card.

April 9 2015, 1.32am EDT
Triassic mass extinction may give clues on how oceans will be affected by climate change

Just over 200m years ago, the end-Triassic mass extinction killed off more than half of the species of organisms living on Earth’s land and in the oceans. We are only just beginning to understand how this – and the period of runaway global warming that followed – changed the chemistry of open oceans.

Link
WRF actually does not look too bad...

Quoting 44. ColoradoBob1:

Greatest mass extinction driven by acidic oceans, study finds
Date:
April 9, 2015
Source:
University of Edinburgh
Summary:
Changes to the Earth's oceans, caused by extreme volcanic activity, triggered the greatest extinction of all time, a study suggests. The amount of carbon added to the atmosphere that triggered the mass extinction was probably greater than today's fossil fuel reserves, the team says. However, the carbon was released at a rate similar to modern emissions. This fast rate of release was a critical factor driving ocean acidification, researchers say.

Link

Makes sense. Acidic oceans are basically dead. Acidity would kill almost all sea life excluding the microbes and bacteria. The food chain would be annihilated, along with the oceans ability to absorb carbon. Could also mean that rain will also become more acidic in certain regions, killing forests that take in C02 and release oxygen.
49. vis0
cap crack?
Quoting 47. hydrus:

Makes sense. Acidic oceans are basically dead. Acidity would kill almost all sea life excluding the microbes and bacteria. The food chain would be annihilated, along with the oceans ability to absorb carbon. Could also mean that rain will also become more acidic in certain regions, killing forests that take in C02 and release oxygen.
heat be a killer too

but don't worry we be fine everything is just perfectly moving along nicely

SST Anomaly
Quoting hydrus:
WRF actually does not look too bad...

For some reason, the WRF radar forecast constantly over represents rain and storms for central to south Alabama. When the front comes through tomorrow it will be decaying rapidly. NW Alabama will get some storms and rain out of it but the front is going to be almost dry down here. The front, or what remains of it, then moves back north and stalls, leaving me in the warm sector again after one day of cooler weather. In theory, that should provide some rain but I've been in the warm sector all week, sweating my butt off just taking out the trash, and all I got was the one shower with 0.19" of rain. All the spring bloomers are losing their flowers and everything is getting that July look. It's pretty depressing.
double post with latest update map info

Quoting 41. ColoradoBob1:

'Warm blob' in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US
Date:
April 9, 2015
Source:
University of Washington
Summary:
An unusually warm patch of surface water, nicknamed 'the blob' when it emerged in early 2014, is part of a Pacific Ocean pattern that may be affecting everything from West Coast fisheries and water supplies to East Coast snowstorms. The blob is just one element of a broader pattern in the Pacific Ocean whose influence reaches much further -- possibly to include two bone-chilling winters in the Eastern U.S.

Link
surface temps as of 7 pm this evening

Quoting vis0:
cap crack?
Cap seems to be holding pretty well. The only threatening storms are now going through Iowa City headed for the quad Cities. So far the only tornado that the SPC has listed is a fairly weak and brief storm near Peoria, although I think there was probably another tornado near Athens OH judging by the damage reports. At least up until now, this has been less of an event than has been forecast. Could change though, depending on the dry air and the cap.
Quoting 47. hydrus:

Makes sense. Acidic oceans are basically dead. Acidity would kill almost all sea life excluding the microbes and bacteria. The food chain would be annihilated, along with the oceans ability to absorb carbon. Could also mean that rain will also become more acidic in certain regions, killing forests that take in C02 and release oxygen.
This will not happen, at least not for quite a few millennia.
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

double post with latest update map info

surface temps as of 7 pm this evening


There are a lot of maybes in these statements, not enough time as passed to produce a solid theory.
Quoting 54. NativeSun:

This will not happen, at least not for quite a few millennia.


Got a tornado watch.
Interesting looking ULL in the Pacific.



Quoting 55. NativeSun:

There are a lot of maybes in these statements, not enough time as passed to produce a solid theory.


nothing really matters
what you or I got to say
what it is or will become
because its going to be
whatever its to be
Quoting 54. NativeSun:

This will not happen, at least not for quite a few millennia.


Pay no attention to mass die-offs of sea life on the West Coast from sea stars to sea lions.
Quoting 60. ColoradoBob1:



Pay no attention to mass die-offs of sea life on the West Coast from sea stars to sea lions.


just a figment of our imagination I think
maybe its all the fireworks maybe we should stop using them see if it gets better
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



19 12 7 are my numbers for the E-Pac.


Holy Moley!!!! The present conditions do point to an active season, but 7 majors? That would be cool to watch especially because the diminished threat to major population centers as opposed to the atlantic.
94P looks real healthy. GFS and ECMWF brings this disturbance towards Vanuatu in the next couple of days, though thankfully they don't strengthen it much then a tropical storm.



Clear tornadic signature on the storm that just went tornado-warned near the Quad Cities.
Storm chasers en route.
Link
Stop climate change by drinking Coca-Cola says Oz government
Just take the CO2 from power stations and bottle it for the cool, clean taste of salvation

If you want to understand the quality of advice the Australian government wants in the climate change debate, you need only need one passage from page 56 of a new report into the energy sector.

Discussing carbon capture and storage, which currently has “failed technology” status nearly the whole world around, the government's Energy White Paper (PDF) says:

“If the CO2 can be captured before it is released to the atmosphere it can either be utilised in other products or permanently stored in deep geological formations. Australia has worked closely with other countries which rely heavily on fossil fuels to investigate opportunities to utilise CO2 in products such as carbonated drinks and plastics or to enhance the growth of oil-rich algae in solar bioreactors to produce biofuel.”. [Emphasis added]

Link
Watching Ben McMillan LIVE Storm Chase. There's double semi's flipped over on interstate I-80, in SE Iowa.
Quoting 61. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



just a figment of our imagination I think
maybe its all the fireworks maybe we should stop using them see if it gets better


Tell that to the kiwis :

Job losses hit hard

Workers at Sanford’s mussel plant in Christchurch are facing tough choices in the coming weeks following a proposal to make 230 staff redundant.

The company plans to close the processing facility due to a drop in the supply of wild spat or baby mussels, caused, it says, by high sea temperatures.


Link
Quoting 65. ColoradoBob1:

Stop climate change by drinking Coca-Cola says Oz government
Just take the CO2 from power stations and bottle it for the cool, clean taste of salvation

If you want to understand the quality of advice the Australian government wants in the climate change debate, you need only need one passage from page 56 of a new report into the energy sector.

Discussing carbon capture and storage, which currently has “failed technology” status nearly the whole world around, the government's Energy White Paper (PDF) says:

“If the CO2 can be captured before it is released to the atmosphere it can either be utilised in other products or permanently stored in deep geological formations. Australia has worked closely with other countries which rely heavily on fossil fuels to investigate opportunities to utilise CO2 in products such as carbonated drinks and plastics or to enhance the growth of oil-rich algae in solar bioreactors to produce biofuel.”. [Emphasis added]

Link


Pep-SI, Pep-SI, Pep-SI!
Quoting 69. win1gamegiantsplease:



Pep-SI, Pep-SI, Pep-SI!
dr pepper dr pepper dr pepper
Quoting 68. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Today is the 150th anniv. of Lee's surrender to Grant Another rough night in Dixie.
better stop before I get myself in trouble

o bob by way I believe in climate change and the eventual death of this planet and I believe we will do nothing about it been that way since the start be that way at the end we may try at the end but it will simply just be too late thanks to those that refuse to see
Quoting 69. win1gamegiantsplease:



Pep-SI, Pep-SI, Pep-SI!



Pep-NO, Pep-NO, Pep-NO! :O)

NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt: denying climate change is wishful thinking
One of the world’s leading climatologists is about to give free lectures in Victoria and Vancouver

NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt is one of the world's most recognized climatologists — but he says, he's tired of hearing from sceptics who still deny climate change is occurring.

"I would wish this wasn't happening. I wish it was all a mistake and it was all some sort of conspiracy driven by vegetarian-socialists, but it's not," he told The Early Edition's Rick Cluff..................................

Gavin Schmidt will be giving a lecture entitled Climate change: Choose your own adventure! at 7 p.m. PT Wednesday at UVic in Victoria.

He will then present another lecture entitled What are climate models good for? at 7 p.m. PT Thursday at UBC Robson Square in Vancouver.

Both lectures will also be webcast live online.


Link


Very impressive rotation on the storm NE of quad cities. Tornado is reported on ground.
Large debris ball headed towards Clinton!!
Quoting 73. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

better stop before I get myself in trouble

o bob by way I believe in climate change and the eventual death of this planet and I believe we will do nothing about it been that way since the start be that way at the end we may try at the end but it will simply just be too late thanks to those that refuse to see


o bob by way I believe in climate change


As Dr. White said last Dec. -

"The West Antarctic Ice Sheet doesn't care what you believe."

And to paraphrase Rob Renier's mother -

"I'll have what your having."
Quoting 54. NativeSun:

This will not happen, at least not for quite a few millennia.
What then.? Tums.?
http://kwqc.com/category/video/kwqc-livestream/
As of the April 9th update, NOAA says we're still in an El Nino. Plus they's increased the odds of it lasting through not only Summer(approximately 70%) but also through Fall(greater then 60%)! MEI has now gone into solid weak EL Nino mode at 0.65! Their next update will not be until Thursday, May 14th just in time for the mid-monthly ENSO model updates!

Read the full update Here!
National Lightning
Quoting 81. hydrus:

What then.? Tums.?


“I would wish this wasn’t happening. I wish it was all a mistake and it was all some sort of conspiracy driven by vegetarian-socialists, but it’s not,”

NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt
Quoting 83. weatherbro:

As of the April 9th update, NOAA says we're still in an El Nino. Plus they's increased the odds of it lasting through not only Summer(approximately 70%) but also through Fall(greater then 60%)! MEI has now gone into solid weak EL Nino mode at 0.65! Their next update will not be until Thursday, May 14th just in time for the mid-monthly ENSO model updates!

Read the full update Here!


Onrush of Second Monster Kelvin Wave Raises Specter of 2015 Super El Nino

And so it appears we are living in a time of Monster Kelvin Waves — powerful confluences of Pacific Ocean heat running just beneath the surface — bringing with them the potential for both record global heat spikes and strong, climate wracking El Nino events.

Link
Tornado sirens have been sounding in St. Charles county, west of St. Louis. The storm that caused it dropped a funnel cloud, but is now moving across the Mississippi into Illinois. Made my adrenalin go up because it passed a couple miles north of my house, and here I sit, 30 miles south, at work. Gah!
Also watching that stuff rolling up I-44 right toward me. Will be glad when this evening is over!
Quoting 58. 882MB:

Interesting looking ULL in the Pacific.






Black Hole hahahaaha
Quoting 88. pablosyn:



Black Hole hahahaaha


You read my mind, lol. That was exactly what I was going to write next to my comment, but I said nahhh, let someone say it. And you got it, thumbs up. :)
">

This guy in IL need to get warned. Lone supercell with good rotation.

Edit: Was just warned.
ntil 8pm CDT, Thu, Apr 9
Affected Areas
Radar

Apr 9, 6:30pm CDT Weather In Motion®
Issued by The National Weather Service
Davenport/Quad Cities, IA
Thu, Apr 9, 5:05 pm CDT
TORNADO WATCH 39 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
CARROLL HENRY IL JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
HANCOCK HENDERSON MCDONOUGH WARREN
IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA
CEDAR CLINTON JACKSON JONES MUSCATINE SCOTT
IN SOUTHEAST IOWA
DES MOINES LOUISA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... ALEDO... ANAMOSA... BETTENDORF... BURLINGTON... CARTHAGE... CLINTON... DAVENPORT... FREEPORT... GALENA... KEWANEE... MACOMB... MAQUOKETA... MOLINE... MONMOUTH... MOUNT CARROLL... MUSCATINE... OQUAWKA... ROCK FALLS... ROCK ISLAND... STERLING... TIPTON AND WAPELLO.
Obama Adviser During Recession Is Given New Challenge: Climate Change

Brian Deese’s first job at the White House included churning out economic doomsday scenarios, like how many communities might see unemployment rates hit 25 percent in the event of cascading bankruptcies across the Midwest.

“It was so harrowing,” Mr. Deese recalled of the grim months of recession in the earliest days of President Obama’s first term, when as a 31-year-old Yale Law School student he played a central role on the White House team that executed an $85 billion government bailout of Chrysler and General Motors.

These days the crisis atmosphere is gone and unemployment is at 5.5 percent, but Mr. Deese is still running the economic numbers at the White House on a different kind of crisis that is preoccupying the president. Mr. Deese’s job as Mr. Obama’s senior adviser in charge of climate policy is to push the president’s ambitious environmental agenda to governors, industry executives and international negotiators — while under daily political attacks from Congress and the coal industry.

“It’s not the harrowing urgency of the economy falling off the cliff,” Mr. Deese, 37, said of his new job during a recent interview in his West Wing office, just steps down the hall from Mr. Obama’s. “But it’s the urgency of, ‘We have a limited amount of time left to change the trajectory on a really urgent crisis.’’’


Link
Tornadoes have been spotted in Iowa and Illinois today, and four tornado watches are now in effect as severe thunderstorms break out in association with a potent spring storm system. Besides the tornado threat, severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are expected in a broad swath from the South to the Midwest and even parts of the Northeast.

Here's what you need to know right now:

A tornado was spotted near Donahue, Iowa, at 5:17 p.m. CDT. Donahue is just northwest of Davenport, the state's third-largest city.
Thursday's first tornado was reported at 1:32 p.m. just north of Peoria, Illinois. There are no immediate reports of damage. The same storm prompted another report of a brief ropelike tornado near Rome, Illinois, a few minutes later.
Two tornado watches are in effect until 11 p.m. CDT, covering much of Illinois and parts of southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana, and eastern Missouri. This includes the Chicago and St. Louis metropolitan areas as well as Milwaukee and its western and southern suburbs.
A tornado watch is in effect until 10 p.m. CDT for parts of southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and east Texas. This includes Shreveport, Louisiana, and Tyler, Texas.
A tornado watch is in effect until 8 p.m. CDT for parts of northeast Missouri, eastern Iowa and western Illinois. This includes the Quad Cities, Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, Iowa and Columbia, Missouri.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 11 p.m. CDT for parts of southern and central Wisconsin, including Madison.
Severe thunderstorm watches are in effect until 10 p.m. EDT for parts of southeast Indiana, southern and eastern Ohio, northeast Kentucky, western and northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and far western Maryland. This includes the cities of Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Charleston and Huntington, West Virginia.
Severe thunderstorm watches are in effect until 10 p.m. CDT for parts of southern Missouri, northern and central Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and central and northeast Texas. This includes Springfield, Missouri, and Little Rock, Arkansas.
A mobile home was blown over and rolled in Centralia, Missouri, as a severe thunderstorm moved through at 4:10 p.m. CDT.
The FAA says arriving flights into O'Hare were being delayed by an average of 3 1/2 hours this afternoon. FlightAware.com says more than 700 flights to and from O'Hare have been cancelled today.
Quoting 74. TimTheWxMan:




Pep-NO, Pep-NO, Pep-NO! :O)


Is pep Spanish for hell? Lol.


severe weather!!
Quoting 87. SherwoodSpirit:

Tornado sirens have been sounding in St. Charles county, west of St. Louis. The storm that caused it dropped a funnel cloud, but is now moving across the Mississippi into Illinois. Made my adrenalin go up because it passed a couple miles north of my house, and here I sit, 30 miles south, at work. Gah!
Also watching that stuff rolling up I-44 right toward me. Will be glad when this evening is over!



My friend Chris saw a wall cloud near O'fallon. I was in class during this. :/
Rapid global warming may be coming sooner than you think

Many other studies have pointed to a rapid buildup of heat in middle ocean depths across the Pacific Ocean during the past several decades, with a particular speed-up since the late 1990s. Linsley was a coauthor of a study published in the journal Science last year, which found that the Pacific’s middle ocean depths have warmed 15 times faster in the past 60 years compared to natural warming cycles in the previous 10,000 years.

Another recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change found that, during the next four decades, Earth's climate is headed for a rate of warming unseen in at least the past millennium. This could be enormously harmful since the rate of warming may be beyond many species’ capacity to adapt to a changing climate.

It will be a few years before it's clear that the climate has entered a period of higher heat spending or not, but many signs right now are pointing to yes.


Link
Just got a tornado watch!!!!! YAAAAAAAY!!!!!!


Pep-SI! Pep-SI! Pep-SI!
Debris ball on radar. Both spotters and radar show a tornado is on the ground doing damage.



Edit: Paul Goddard has the wall cloud on the stream and what seems to be a large tornado.

Edit: Getting a very good look at it now. Large wedge tornado.
101. yoboi
Overall we have ben getting less severe weather and major hurricanes hitting the U.S. I hope this is the new norm that we will be facing in the future....
very large tornado in northern Illinois
Wow, large wedge on Paul Goddard's stream, no question.

Amazing.
Wedge tornado near compton, IL about to cross I-39!
Large wedge shaped tornado on the ground near Rochelle Illinois near Illinois rt 39 ..
TWC has a live picture .. its crossing I 39 now ..
Quoting hurricanehunter27:


Very impressive rotation on the storm NE of quad cities. Tornado is reported on ground.
Warnings have expired now. Has anyone heard how damaging this tornado actually was? SPC is carrying everything (trees and power lines down, semi's flipped) as straight line winds.
Look at that thing churn!
Quoting 102. whitewabit:

very large tornado in northern Illinois


Is that by you? Stay safe wabit.
111. yoboi
Quoting 106. whitewabit:

Large wedge shaped tornado on the ground near Rochelle Illinois near Illinois rt 39 ..


Is it very populated there??
from the pictures it looks rural but towns are around there is a debris ball near Lindenwood area .. debris field looks to be expanding they just said ..
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Amazing.
Do you have a link to this feed? All the ones I've tried either don't work or just show a map.
114. 882MB
Watching live huge tornado on Basehunters1 stream, and Paul Goddard stream.
much further north from my location .. we had a tornado 15 miles from me earlier .. Rome, Illinois ..
MASSIVE tornado just to the NW of Chicago on the Basehunters live stream!
Basehunters have a pretty good shot now too.
Damage in fairdale, il.
It looks like el reno in a way because it was multi-vortex.
"Get ready little lady, hell is coming to breakfast"

Lone Wati
Damage on TWC.
Fairdale has been hit ..


Still a very clear debris ball on this bad boy. Looks like it will steer a rural course, at least for the time being.
Quoting 116. CybrTeddy:

MASSIVE tornado just to the NW of Chicago on the Basehunters live stream!


Link, Teddy?
not sure on that spelling .. looks bad a lot of damage trees down .. structures have been destroyed .. small town ..
Quoting Astrometeor:


Link, Teddy?


Stream just went down..

Fairdale is about 10 miles south of Rockford, Illinois ..
Tornado warning north of stl. I know a lot of people from that area. <:(
I saw some horizontal vorticies on that wedge on the stream.. extremely violent tornado.
129. 882MB
Quoting 116. CybrTeddy:

MASSIVE tornado just to the NW of Chicago on the Basehunters live stream!


I was just watching it but stream just went down. Really incredible wide tornado.


Tornado on the ground NE of Longview TX.
131. yoboi
The chasers in texas have a big storm they are chasing
That's quite a radar signature on the Rockford supercell, there are some pretty strong velocities there as well.
the tornado in Northern Illinois is headed toward a much higher population area and saying its still on the ground .. been over 30 minutes now ..
The tornado is heading towards Belvedere, a major population center.
135. 882MB
Quoting 133. whitewabit:

the tornado in Northern Illinois is headed toward a much higher population area and saying its still on the ground .. been over 30 minutes now ..


Wow, that's not good news!


This cell in Texas (headed for Shreveport, or just to the North of there) bears watching as well. The inflow and outflow are about as clear as you can expect from a cell of that nature!
These storms should be in Texas. At this time of year. But they are about to cross into Lake Michigan north of Chicago, here's hoping the lake water cools them down.
Confirmed Tornado just south of Toledo, OH...

WOOD OH-LUCAS OH-
819 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LUCAS AND NORTHERN
WOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 816 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR WALNUT HILLS
HEADING TOWARD ROUTE 795. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSSFORD...NORTHWOOD...OREGON...LUCKEY...WALBRIDG E AND MILLBURY
Really not happy about these storms marching across IL going into dark....:/

Not seeing that squall line yet

Big Time Oklahoma type storm racing right along I-70.

Be extra cautious to all warnings tonight.

Bowl full of popcorn as well....:)
heavy rain now at my location .. lost the sat TV ..
141. 882MB
Incredible outbreak, tornadoes from Texas, Illinois, Ohio, etc... Hope everyone is really taking the warnings serious.
Do we have ratings on these Tornados?
If the Rockford area tornado is still on the ground then it is going through new housing divisions east of Belvidere based on radar data.

This area is highly populated, though most homes have basements.

Quoting 142. Dakster:

Do we have ratings on these Tornados?



we wont no that in tell the day after
tornado warned storm just to my north .. literally popped right over us ..
146. 882MB
Radar's of tornadoes confirmed on the ground.





Quoting 140. whitewabit:

heavy rain now at my location .. lost the sat TV ..

North Side of Peoria looks to receive the brunt of that storm.
Wasn't belvidere hit before in the 80s?
There is a new line forming behind the first round down south.
We have images of the tornadoes live on WREX:

http://www.wrex.com/category/201463/live-coverage
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Still a very clear debris ball on this bad boy. Looks like it will steer a rural course, at least for the time being.
Looks like it's headed for Kenosha and Waukegan if it stays on the ground.
Quickly losing the day on the streams.. night time events are the worst.
Quoting 142. Dakster:

Do we have ratings on these Tornados?


the wedge look and size of the northern Illinois tornado I would say will be rated as a F-5 ..
Quoting 151. sar2401:

Looks like it's headed for Kenosha and Waukegan if it stays on the ground.


By then lake interaction should hopefully weaken the storm, hopefully.
can feel the inflow of the storm north of Peoria .. actually more east then north .. wind picked up to over 40 mph constant before dying back down .. lasted over 8 minutes .. ears popping ..
Quoting 153. whitewabit:



the wedge look and size of the northern Illinois tornado I would say will be rated as a F-5 ..



you mean EF5
Quoting 154. MrstormX:



By then lake interaction should hopefully weaken the storm, hopefully.


Sorry tornados are small enough the lake I doubt will effect it ..
Extremely strong couplets north of Marengo.
Live tornado video on WREX.
The cells to the south just went tornado warned.. these pose more of a threat to the Chicago area.
Just checked in an hour ago, and just checked back. Can hardly believe how many tornado warnings are currently out.

TORNADO WARNING
LAC091-105-MSC005-113-147-100100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0003.150410T0031Z-150410T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
731 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 731 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR GREENSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBURG...KENTWOOD...OSYKA AND TANGIPAHOA.
Tornado passing between Harvard and Woodstock.
Structure fires reported in Cherry Valley, most likely related to tornado.
@dangottschalk 5m
I never estimate strengths based on damage but it's some of the worst I've seen. And use the facts. Home stripped clean of the foundations.
Our wedge producing storm in IL is not giving up. Storm is showing that its handling the merger of another cell with it very well. Velocities are still exceptional.
Tornado touchdown reported near Fairdale, IL per Boone County EMS.
Wonder Lake and then Richman or Antioch near the Il/Wi border are next in line .. according to its exact movements ..
any further northeastern movement will be in high population areas along the costal area of the lake ..
Quoting 168. whitewabit:

any further northeastern movement will be in high population areas along the costal area of the lake ..


I hope it lifts !!
That wedge tornado was moving very near and pretty much in tandem with the surface low. This very well may have helped it achieve its longevity and strong intensity, not entirely unlike what is hypothesized with the Tri-State Tornado.
For the currently warned areas, is the tornado in north central IL the only one that's confirmed?
Brandon Copic on TVN would have a great view of this tornado-warned storm if it was still daytime, he's in great position.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
751 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 751 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER VARNA...OR 9 MILES EAST OF LACON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TONICA AROUND 810 PM CDT.
STREATOR AROUND 820 PM CDT.
GRAND RIDGE AROUND 825 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
KANGLEY...LOSTANT AND LEONORE.

THIS INCLUDES... MATTHIESSEN STATE PARK AND STARVED ROCK STATE PARK.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 52.
Velocities have weakened slightly on the storm nearing the WI border.
Violent tornadoes here in N. Illinois. People trapped and injured at Kraft Foods, Ashton, il. Fairdale, il. it is reported that the town is distorted, there are injuries.
175. yoboi
Quoting 171. LAbonbon:

For the currently warned areas, is the tornado in north central IL the only one that's confirmed?


no couple more...
Fairdale, Il reported the town is destroyed. Sorry on my laptop. No internet or TV.
Go figure I miss what was likely the first violent tornado of the year due to work.
Quoting 176. jazzygal:

Fairdale, Il reported the town is destroyed. Sorry on my laptop. No internet or TV.



how can you be bloging on here if you have No internet
Quoting 176. jazzygal:

Fairdale, Il reported the town is destroyed. Sorry on my laptop. No internet or TV.


pictures from there as a storm chaser went through was very bad looking from what was shown .. appeared to be a small town .. is about 10 miles south of Rockford, Il ..
Tornado Warning for Rusk County in TX until 8:45 PM CDT
#Arkansas #hail RT @chadstaylor: @JimCantore large hail west of Jonesboro, Ar
Quoting 175. yoboi:



no couple more...

Haven't found any other current ones. All the current tornado warnings say 'radar indicated', w/ exception of one in northern IL.

Took me a bit to catch up w/ the current situation across all the states.
Quoting 178. Tazmanian:




how can you be bloging on here if you have No internet


I have cell service on my laptop, Taz.
TWC saying storm moving 60 mph and if it stays on the ground could get up near Milwaukee !!
Confirmed via TWC, Fairdale is destroyed.

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedStorm/status/58632240 8241364992/photo/1
186. yoboi
Quoting 182. LAbonbon:


Haven't found any other current ones. All the current tornado warnings say 'radar indicated', w/ exception of one in northern IL.

Took me a bit to catch up w/ the current situation across all the states.


I ran across fire scanner out of longview tx
Taz, on my IPad not my laptop. I am trying to monitor the situation but they Are getting close. Lightning is really bad by me now. I hate these storms in the dark.
Tornado Warning for Christian, Macon, Moultrie and Shelby Counties in IL until 8:45 PM CDT
Large structure fire reported in Boone County following tornado.
Quoting 187. jazzygal:

Taz, on my IPad not my laptop. I am trying to monitor the situation but they Are getting close. Lightning is really bad by me now. I hate these storms in the dark.




but at lest you are getting one hack of a fire work show out of it
191. yoboi
Quoting 156. Tazmanian:




you mean EF5


Come on taz NO need to be a technical Nelly tonight....
193. yoboi
Quoting 182. LAbonbon:


Haven't found any other current ones. All the current tornado warnings say 'radar indicated', w/ exception of one in northern IL.

Took me a bit to catch up w/ the current situation across all the states.


If you look up either police or fire scanner where storms are heading get very good information...
Population of Fairdale is ~132.
showing replays of the tornado and it appears to have been 1/4 mile wide and no doubt was a EF-5 ..
Quoting 194. MrstormX:

Population of Fairdale is ~132.


it looked like a 4 block town .. very common through a farming area ..


some severe weather tonight!!
Quoting 196. whitewabit:



it looked like a 4 block town .. very common through a farming area ..
I sure hope they had storm cellars.
LinkTyphoon Maysak Destruction
Quoting 196. whitewabit:



it looked like a 4 block town .. very common through a farming area ..


If it was a large town they might have had a flashing yellow light at an intersection.
Basehunters delivers once again:

Link
Quoting 176. jazzygal:

Fairdale, Il reported the town is destroyed. Sorry on my laptop. No internet or TV.

jazzygal, if you don't mind sharing, what town/county are you in? If you don't want to divulge, that's okay. I just hope you and yours stay safe.
Still watching the cell to the SW of Chicago. Not tornado warned atm, but still needs to be watched.
206. yoboi
I have several links to police/fire scanners here is one....

Link
Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go figure I miss what was likely the first violent tornado of the year due to work.


Get used to that bud ;-), I was working and in community college during the majority of Irene and Sandy coverage besides afternoons and late nights (was actually washing dishes at a restaurant while Sandy made landfall in NJ).
Quoting 195. whitewabit:

showing replays of the tornado and it appears to have been 1/4 mile wide and no doubt was a EF-5 ..


Haven't seen any damage pictures yet but that vortex was moving pretty swiftly, definitely looked like it could be ef4 or higher.
209. yoboi
Multiple structure fires and mutual aid activity in post tornado areas. Many Fire Depts have been dispatched for various incidents. (17 minutes ago)

Link
Quoting 208. win1gamegiantsplease:



Haven't seen any damage pictures yet but that vortex was moving pretty swiftly, definitely looked like it could be ef4 or higher.









Quoting 203. LAbonbon:


jazzygal, if you don't mind sharing, what town/county are you in? If you don't want to divulge, that's okay. I just hope you and yours stay safe.


I am in Round Lake Beach, Lake County. I'm in my basement. Bad storm going over us now. We only have a Severe Thunderstorm warning right now. But I hate the storms at night. I am trying to pack because my movers are coming Monday to move to New Orleans. The Lightning show has been intense. Trying to figure out if there are anymore tornadoes out there. Sirens were going off in the town next to me.
Quoting 141. 882MB:

Incredible outbreak, tornadoes from Texas, Illinois, Ohio, etc... Hope everyone is really taking the warnings serious.


Although areas south of Atlanta and swinging towards the Carolina coasts have an Achilles heel with positive tilted lines, we're thankful to have the Appalachians to the west to help kick some juice out of the cells. Hopefully everyone in the midwest has their eyes to the skies tonight.
some photos circulating from social media and TWC. (both stated from Fairdale)

win1gamegiantsplease:



Haven't seen any damage pictures yet but that vortex was moving pretty swiftly, definitely looked like it could be ef4 or higher.






Quoting 198. hydrus:

I sure hope they had storm cellars.


most houses have cellars or basements according to age ..
That's just horrible HadesGodWyvern.
those pictures don't look promising ..
Quoting 211. jazzygal:



I am in Round Lake Beach, Lake County. I'm in my basement. Bad storm going over us now. We only have a Severe Thunderstorm warning right now. But I hate the storms at night. I am trying to pack because my movers are coming Monday to move to New Orleans. The Lightning show has been intense. Trying to figure out if there are anymore tornadoes out there. Sirens were going off in the town next to me.

You're definitely in the thick of it. Glad you're hunkered down in your basement. Currently there are no tornado warned areas around you. BTW, it's a bit premature, but welcome to Louisiana :)

Quoting 217. LAbonbon:


You're definitely in the thick of it. Glad you're hunkered down in your basement. Currently there are no tornado warned areas around you. BTW, it's a bit premature, but welcome to Louisiana :)




grlevel 3 or gr earth are way better for tracking nados then the NWS rader
Whoa.... this looks similar to what the tri-state tornado may have been. At least the Fairdale one was visible and didn't look like rolling fog. It looks like it was on the ground for over 40 minutes and moved at 55-60 mph. Yeah, i had to switch between local news and TWC since the latter didn't even mention any STL storms and i knew some people in one of the tornado warnings. They're all ok though since there was no tornado.


Tornado in Kirkland, IL

I dont know how to post videos on here but here is the link to youtube..
storms cells moving out over the lake now ..
storm originated south west of Davenport, Iowa so a very long storm track .. not a tornado all the time but several different parts of its total path it was ..
Via the tornado history project website, the last violent (F4/F5) tornado to impact the NWS Chicago county warning area was the F5 Plainfield tornado on August 28, 1990, 25 years ago. It is safe to say that streak was broken tonight.
Quoting 218. Tazmanian:



grlevel 3 or gr earth are way better for tracking nados then the NWS rader


For tracking rotations yes, but if we are only interested in tornado warnings themselves, the large scale NWS radar will suffice.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MUSKEGON MICHIGAN TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FORT
WAYNE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
Just another day driving on the highway..except for the violent tornado to the left..

Quoting 223. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Via the tornado history project website, the last violent (F4/F5) tornado to impact the NWS Chicago county warning area was the F5 Plainfield tornado on August 28, 1990, 25 years ago. It is safe to say that streak was broken tonight.


the Plainfield tornado was massive .. My SIL had just moved from the area 3 months before.. her old house was destroyed ..
Quoting 217. LAbonbon:


You're definitely in the thick of it. Glad you're hunkered down in your basement. Currently there are no tornado warned areas around you. BTW, it's a bit premature, but welcome to Louisiana :)




It is pouring here. My Sump Pump is working overtime. There is lots of damage and people hurt in N. Illinois. Tonight. Thanks for the info and the welcome. I am from New Orleans original and finally going home after 32 years. My husband is from Chicago and is tired of all the snow. Hope he can tolerate the hot summers.
Hi I'm new here and as you can see I'm from Trenton, Nebraska. I hope everyone is OK that's in the path of the storms. Here is my blog:Link
Quoting 213. HadesGodWyvern:

some photos circulating from social media and TWC. (both stated from Fairdale)










Thank you, that's surely looks like EF-4 damage: can't tell if the trees have been stripped bare of bark but you can see the middle branches are snapped completely and bare of vegetation, and the house in the back of second pic while badly damaged appears to have its walls intact although it's hard to see.
@AnneClaireCNN 4m
#CNN: One person has died as a result of the storms in Fairdale, Il. Illinois EMA Spokesperson Patti Thompson tells CNN.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Thank you, that's surely looks like EF-4 damage: can't tell if the trees have been stripped bare of bark but you can see the middle branches are snapped completely and bare of vegetation, and the house in the back of second pic while badly damaged appears to have its walls intact although it's hard to see.


Agreed. Low-end EF-4 or upper end EF-3.
Thankfully that cell that moved into Chicago didn't become organized enough for grounds to reissue a tornado warning. I believe the night will wind down now, but the damage has been done for the day.
Quoting 232. CybrTeddy:



Agreed. Low-end EF-4 or upper end EF-3.


I was thinking EF-3, reminiscent of some damage through my town back in '06.
Quoting 228. jazzygal:



It is pouring here. My Sump Pump is working overtime. There is lots of damage and people hurt in N. Illinois. Tonight. Thanks for the info and the welcome. I am from New Orleans original and finally going home after 32 years. My husband is from Chicago and is tired of all the snow. Hope he can tolerate the hot summers.

In that case, welcome back to LA. I'm originally from the north myself, I've adapted to the heat somewhat. I don't miss the cold and the long snowy/icy commutes, but I sure do miss the seasons.
All quiet now. Very sad the pictures coming out of N. Illinois. Fairdale half the town is completely flattened. Search and rescue going on now.
Daybreak will reveal the true extent of the damage, areas outside of Fairdale are also bad an inaccesable.
well like hurricane season it olny take one too make it a bad tornado season
Quoting 236. LAbonbon:


In that case, welcome back to LA. I'm originally from the north myself, I've adapted to the heat somewhat. I don't miss the cold and the long snowy/icy commtes, but I sure do miss the seasons.


Yes I will miss the seasons most of all!
MrstormX, daybreak will tell the real story. The tornado there was massive. Waukegan had a wind gust of 91. Unbelievable storms for those few hours.
241. 882MB
Was expecting this, though thankfully models keep newly formed Tropical Cyclone Twenty-three, below major status. Pretty healthy tropical system to look at. Good thing it will stay south of Vanuatu, and be considerably much weaker then Pam, when it does its closest approach, as a tropical storm.







thundering outside temps have spiked in the last bit here 52.9 should be near 60 by 2 am or higher

thunder getting louder closer
Funny Norman issued a moderate risk yesterday and by the looks of it maybe one need to be issued today and not yesterday.
Quoting 202. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Basehunters delivers once again:

Link


Dang, that's impressive, the "tornado drought" had to end eventually...
Quoting 244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thundering outside temps have spiked in the last bit here 52.9 should be near 60 by 2 am or higher

thunder getting louder closer


Storms bearing down toward you keeper.

Quoting 246. Jedkins01:


Dang, that's impressive, the "tornado drought" had to end eventually...


We're still in one as there really haven't been many tornadoes so far this season its just this one tornado was a monster. Like with Hurricane Season eventhough this is going to be a slow year that doesn't mean we still won't see a Major hit the US. Always be prepared!
I told you I was afraid this was going to be a bad year and we would make up for the slow start What an impressive Tornado the Rochelle Illinois tornado was!!! Awesome! I am afraid there will be more than one death before this is all accounted for...

No doubt(at least in my mind) the pics seem to point to a an F4 SIZED Tornado at times. Fairdale was demolished it seemed. I am afraid, as mentioned...we are just getting started.
This next round should wake keeper up out of the bed.

Quoting 245. StormTrackerScott:

Funny Norman issued a moderate risk yesterday and by the looks of it maybe one need to be issued today and not yesterday.



The problem with yesterday Scott was that dry air was present where the storms were supposed to form. The dryline was farther west as well. The storm that produced the wedge tornado today was actually east of the surface low on the warm front.
local radar 3 mins ago

Wow, more amazing footage of the Rochelle IL tornado shot from resident Dave Walker in his backyard, it's on facebook:

Link
Quoting 247. StormTrackerScott:



Storms bearing down toward you keeper.


very light I call them thunder showers nothing serious this is the leading edge of the warmer airmass with cooler airmass following in just before daybreak and that second round u just mention
Quoting 253. Jedkins01:
Wow, more amazing footage of the Rochelle IL tornado shot from resident Dave Walker in his backyard, it's on facebook:

Link


That's a EF 4!
Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:



We're still in one as there really haven't been many tornadoes so far this season its just this one tornado was a monster. Like with Hurricane Season eventhough this is going to be a slow year that doesn't mean we still won't see a Major hit the US. Always be prepared!


Well yes we are still in it, but I'm saying had in thinking that it will inevitably end anyway.

Also, yes about hurricane season too, but keep in mind that preseason numbers can sometimes be off by quite a bit. Not saying there will be a lot of systems this year, but we sure can't say for sure that there won't even though a less active season seems likely. Still ultimately if let's there is only 1 major hurricane but it makes landfall in a populated area of the southeast then the low numbers won't matter, just as the low tornado numbers this year didn't matter for those hit by the tornado in Rochelle IL. As you point out, people need to be just as prepared as any season!
Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:



That's a EF 4!


Looks like it but we can't say for sure until we get the damage survey to confirm. Also keep in mind that EF3 tornadoes are still very powerful and can be that large with that structure. However I'm sure it was at least a strong EF3 based on footage of it and damage pictures.

It's also worth noting to remember that a tornado can only be rated by what it damages, if the tornado was say producing EF4 winds at peak over the open plains but was an EF3 when it hit structures, it can only be rated EF3 at max.

The El Rino tornado is a good example of this, many are shocked that it was not officially an EF4 or EF5, but it was rated an EF3 based on damage to human structures, it's likely that the El Rino was indeed stronger when it did not hit hit human structures, but it's rated by damage survey, so yeah.
Quoting 256. Jedkins01:


Well yes we are still in it, but I'm saying had in thinking that it will inevitably end anyway.

Also, yes about hurricane season too, but keep in mind that preseason numbers can sometimes be off by quite a bit. Not saying there will be a lot of systems this year, but we sure can't say for sure that there won't even though a less active season seems likely. Still ultimately if let's there is only 1 major hurricane but it makes landfall in a populated area of the southeast then the low numbers won't matter, just as the low tornado numbers this year didn't matter for those hit by the tornado in Rochelle IL. As you point out, people need to be just as prepared as any season!


Tweets coming out from the NHC & CSU suggest this maybe the slowest Hurricane Season since 1997 and I'm not surprised as many models now rival the 1997 El-Nino. The key to how strong this event will be is watching the next 4 to 5 weeks because if these ENSO values begin to shoot up then its inevitable and there goes the Hurricane Season at that point but again all it takes is one storm to wreck havoc across areas where millions live.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Drought in California: the price is wrong

California Steamin'



*** Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US

This Animated Map Shows How Moving Oil by Rail Exploded in the Past Five Years



*** 'Warm blob' in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US



!!! Quantum physics: Hot and cold at the same time


"The quantum gas could take on different temperatures at once. It can be hot and cold at the same time." I think we should geo-engineer the atmosphere into a quantum gas.



* After Tambora: Two hundred years ago the most powerful eruption in modern history made itself felt around the world. It could happen again at almost any time


!!! Greatest mass extinction driven by acidic oceans, study finds The most important article of the week.

* Woodlands revival adds new piece to carbon cycle puzzle

* New evidence for combat and cannibalism in tyrannosaurs



Our sun came late to the Milky Way's star-birth party


*** Dispersant used to clean deepwater horizon spill more toxic to corals than the oil

*** Amygdala encodes 'cooties' and 'crushes' in the developing brain



*** Dynamics of spinning black holes: Flip-flopping black holes spin to the end of the dance



!!! Arctic: Ferromanganese crusts record past climates

!!! Increased levels of radon in Pennsylvania homes correspond to onset of fracking


Climate change seen bringing more fires, less snow to Yellowstone

*** Continental contact: the Americas may have fused earlier than thought

*** Lowe's to eliminate pesticides that hurt crop pollinating honeybees

Why 2015 could be a record year for the greening of U.S. energy

Scientists confirm that the Arctic could become a major new source of carbon emissions


Scientists Question Environmental Impact of China's Winter Olympics Bid (with video)

* Wisconsin Board of Commissioners of Public Lands Bans Discussion of Climate

*** Mountain Gorilla's Genetic Map Reveals Severe Inbreeding :(

Regulators slap $1.6 billion fine on PG&E for pipeline blast

* NASA TRMM Mission Ends (video)
0Z GFS is breaking up this SE Rdge that has plagued for FL for weeks. Looks like a series of impulses are set to move in starting Saturday and lasting all next week. As a result GFS is really ramping up the rain totals across FL. Some areas of E C FL could see 5" of rain from Saturday thru next Friday. Average for April for the month is 2.4" so we could double those totals over the next week or so.

Quoting 245. StormTrackerScott:

Funny Norman issued a moderate risk yesterday and by the looks of it maybe one need to be issued today and not yesterday.


Why? A single tornado like this doesn't justify a Moderate risk, methinks.
TropicalAnalystwx13 very cool you were mentioned in the blog entry :)
Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:



That's a EF 4!
high end EF3 for sure
Quoting 262. BaltimoreBrian:
TropicalAnalystwx13 very cool you were mentioned in the blog entry :)


Eventhough he can get under my skin at times the kid is good at what he does and puts a lot of effort in his forecasting abilities. Great job TA13!
Quoting 262. BaltimoreBrian:

TropicalAnalystwx13 very cool you were mentioned in the blog entry :)


Why did you say his handle...you know his name, BaltimoreBrian.

Edit: Ack, two college girls speaking in British accents trying to get my attention causes word errors in my blog-speak.
wind advisories should fly for strong winds 50kmh gusting at times to 80 kmh behind this system
Quoting 263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

high end EF3 for sure



guys no need too fight over how strong this was whats this wait and see what the NWS says when they go out on friday too look then we no more then
Quoting 265. Astrometeor:


Why did you say his handle...you know his name, BaltimoreBrian.

Edit: Ack, two college girls speaking in British accents trying to get my attention causes word errors in my blog-speak.


Are implying Cody is actually Candice? J/K
Quoting 263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

high end EF3 for sure


EF0, I am confident.

(just to spite Taz)
you can see the pull down from the north as cool air rushes down

as system moves ene over upper lakes


Quoting 270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you can see the pull down from the north as cool air rushes down

as system moves ene over upper lakes


Pretty easy to detect CAA on satellite once you know how.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Why did you say his handle...you know his name, BaltimoreBrian.

Edit: Ack, two college girls speaking in British accents trying to get my attention causes word errors in my blog-speak.


I almost told Scott the name I gave him in chat ;)

Quoting 265. Astrometeor:



Why did you say his handle...you know his name, BaltimoreBrian.

Edit: Ack, two college girls speaking in British accents trying to get my attention causes word errors in my blog-speak.
I would always rather be called by my real name instead of my handle; even if I didn't have this moniker. I'm not really sure why most people don't. It's fun, and actually adds legitimate personality.

Quoting 272. BaltimoreBrian:



I almost told Scott the name I gave him in chat ;)
Codessa.

I forget... what was mine? Or did you never think of one?
Quoting 274. KoritheMan:

Codessa.

I forget... what was mine? Or did you never think of one?

Korina. Nathan became Nat with the 7th letter of the alphabet added to the beginning ;)
Link
My latest forecast.
Quoting 275. BaltimoreBrian:



Korina. Nathan became Nat with the 7th letter of the alphabet added to the beginning ;)


Gnat. Don't remind me.
My name for Cody was by far the best though ;)

Quoting 278. BaltimoreBrian:

My name for Cody was by far the best though ;)
Okay, Brianna.
280. vis0
(just read cmnt #53 so this does not pertain to present wx conditions)
Hence the word "crack" as in not much but something.
Now if i where have used another adjective after cap as, "disappearing", "poofed", "kaPOW" or" #@!%!" or just yelled crack by itself then that's a sign of trouble*.



*unless yer watching the middle aged fridge repair guy lean over while still wearing his teenage jeans ........
CR  CK!

Now if after i say "cap", if anyone thinks "night", then yer drinking too much...which that person should figure out if yer building snowmen from scrapped iced vodka.
281. vis0
: .. - (
Quoting 213. HadesGodWyvern:

some photos circulating from social media and TWC. (both stated from Fairdale)









Quoting 213. HadesGodWyvern:

some photos circulating from social media and TWC. (both stated from Fairdale)








: .. - (
Quoting Astrometeor:


Why? A single tornado like this doesn't justify a Moderate risk, methinks.


16 tornadoes in a relatively small region with one tornado being deadly, large, violent, and long tracked.

After the fact, the NWS would have most likely increased the risk level for a small area around northern Illinois given the number of tornadoes and danger level in that region.

But saying that Watches and Warnings were issued for these areas so people were warned of the danger.
7 died when a van wrecked in s. florida. another 3 died near macon georgia cars crashed. not to mention all the other fatal auto and motorcycle accidents. our roads are twisty too.
Up to 16 tornadoes now. Sure to increase as the NWS goes out to survey today.
The wind damage in N.E. Texas will most likely be tornado damage. There was a perfect tornado signature with debris ball with the cell.


*** Mountain Gorilla's Genetic Map Reveals Severe Inbreeding...
You should see Man o War Cay in Abaco... 98% of the 300 people there can be traced back to 2 people from 1780. EEEWWww.

"This Animated Map Shows How Moving Oil by Rail Exploded in the Past Five Years."
Thank Mr. Warren Buffett for this one. Also the reason that the pipeline was declined.

289. Hugo5
Good morning fellow bloggers!

WPAC TC 23 is here on time as predicted earlier this week! I was expecting a little more development from the other two lows in this area, but at least predicting the time frame and position of this storm was good enough. Sadly I do not see anything else developing in the WPAC over the next few days, there are a few tropical waves moving into better developmental south of Hawaii, but there is really not much to them. Maybe around Monday time frame we will see the next systems in the shot, but for the weekend 23 is it in WPAC.

Moving over to the Indian Ocean. we still have joalane moving south and will continue its track to nothingness. The next system to develop over the next few days is here. there are two systems in a mess of clouds west of Indonesia, one north of the equator and one south. These two systems will complement each other, whether or not they become twin storms is a different story. they are still a couple of days out from development anyways, maybe 48-72 hours out before we see the systems gain good rotation and become TS.

Winds in the Atlantic have slowly started to move north of the equator. There is a significant low coming off Africa today, that if it were later in the season would have a chance at development, but this early will do nothing. the thing to mention about it will be whether it bring enough surface winds to move hot surface water further north of the equator over the next few days to prime the area for the next systems.

EPAC is still not looking good, though the vertical instability has risen some over the last few days, which would be helpful if there were any system in the EPAC, but it is very quite right now. there is also a big area of warm water sitting off the coast of Coasta Rica, but once again nothing there.

Until next time Hugo5 out. Like if you think that this was helpful!
For Nathan and all the other college students out there, here's a new idea for exam prep from Germany:

German student makes FoI request to see test papers before exams

German schoolboy has taken exam preparation to ingenious new levels by making a freedom of information request to see the questions in his forthcoming Abitur tests, the equivalent of A-levels in the UK.

Simon Schräder, 17, from Münster, used the internet platform fragdenstaat.de (“ask the state”), to ask the education ministry of North Rhine-Westphalia for “the tasks of the centrally-made Abitur examinations in the senior classes of high school in the current school year”. He was specifically invoking his state’s freedom of information law.


SSTs in the MDR have warmed some in the past week. The overall SST anomaly for this region is cooler than average still.
Quoting 286. Sfloridacat5:

Up to 16 tornadoes now. Sure to increase as the NWS goes out to survey today.
The wind damage in N.E. Texas will most likely be tornado damage. There was a perfect tornado signature with debris ball with the cell.




A very strong jet core at the time was heading up toward that area. I was surprised however that there wasn't a second area of tornadoes across NE Texas over to Arkansas. I really thought we would have had some big tornadoes in that area too. Anyways hang in there buddy as our weather pattern is about to turn wet especially across the interior starting tomorrow thru the end of next week so maybe we can finally get some rain.
Pattern change underway across FL finally some much needed rains and relief from the heat coming.

06Z GFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015


.DISCUSSION...

...NO END IN SIGHT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
...MOISTENING UP THOUGH WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOST DAYS...


TODAY/TONIGHT...COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. S/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FL...HOWEVER A DEEP LAYER OF DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE MID LEVELS. HRRR/WRF SHOWING
SOME PRECIP WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
OVERCOME...FEEL ANY ISO SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARD SUNSET.
MOS GUIDANCE ISN`T TOO KEEN ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE DAY INTO EARLY
EVENING.

SINCE ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S/AROUND
90 DEGREES FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

WEEKEND...WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE
AREA THEN BE BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT IS
INDICATED AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRAVERSE THE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH
DAY...OFFERING SOME CREDENCE FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THOUGH WILL CONFINE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR NOW.

A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND ON SAT WILL SLIGHTLY DELAY
SEA BREEZE ONSET...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...SO THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...40 PERCENT...WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR.
ALSO INCLUDED THE NORTH COAST WITH 40 POPS...WHERE A SLIGHT PUSH
BACK TO THE COAST MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY.

AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FOR POPS AND AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES. HAVE SHADED POPS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS...50 PERCENT
INTERIOR AND 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST.

SAT LOOKS QUITE WARM IN THE MID 80S RIGHT AT THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR. THE EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE/MORE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK MAX TEMPS
DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

MON-FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGES ARE INDICATED WITH
MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR APRIL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON WITH RIDGE AXIS SETTLING
INTO THE AREA TUE AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
VICINITY NORTH FLORIDA. ECMWF/GFS POPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL.


Tampa Bay area
Forecast for Orlando today 92 with a heat index of 101. That's flipping ridiculous as it is only April!
Any chance that the space coast might get some much needed rain?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Pattern change underway across FL finally some much needed rains and relief from the heat coming.

06Z GFS
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 2m 2 minutes ago
The circulation is forecast to amplify some as we move into summer-- a little unusual for this time of the year (2/2)


Quoting 297. hurricanewatcher61:

Any chance that the space coast might get some much needed rain?


NWS in Melbourne is saying storms should form over the interior and drift back over to the coast over the weekend. Typical to see that this time of year as the SSW flow is still pretty strong although hasn't been in recent weeks but that is changing. E C FL is in for a lot of rain over the next week some models are calling for totals up to 5" in some areas from Saturday thru next Friday more than doubling our average for April if this were to occur. Well see how it plays out as we've been fooled before.
I think southern Mississippi and Alabama have a pretty good chance of seeing some severe weather today.
MDR is showing signs of heating up. This could be as a result of the weak SAL and trade winds blowing across the atlantic. on the other side the water of the south American coast is not as warm as it was two weeks ago. This situation is quite interesting as a moderate El Nino is forecast to materialize.
302. SLU
Yes the conditions are pretty bad this year but 7-3-1 I think is a very bold forecast from CSU given the detection rates of TC's has improved since the old days and that conditions could change in the next few months. They've left the door open for a major forecast bust again if things don't go according to plan.

I'm gonna go with 7 - 11, 4 - 6, 1 - 2 Max if you're around.

25s/Joalane

Sunday the front gets down into central Florida hopefully increasing the rain chances across southern Fl.
This rainy set up for Eastern FL is the result of this next week. Could it be the first wannabe system of the year?

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 14m 14 minutes ago
Odd little hybrid low off the SE US in about a week in the EC- lots of time to see if it has higher aspirations.


Hope we get the rain, we need it!blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting StormTrackerScott:


NWS in Melbourne is saying storms should form over the interior and drift back over to the coast over the weekend. Typical to see that this time of year as the SSW flow is still pretty strong although hasn't been in recent weeks but that is changing. E C FL is in for a lot of rain over the next week some models are calling for totals up to 5" in some areas from Saturday thru next Friday more than doubling our average for April if this were to occur. Well see how it plays out as we've been fooled before.
D.C. Alley
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I think southern Mississippi and Alabama have a pretty good chance of seeing some severe weather today.
It looks pretty doubtful for Alabama. The storms are very disorganized north of Birmingham and the front is already starting to peter out. There are a few stronger storms with some heavy rain but the parent low is so far north that the dynamics just aren't there for severe weather. I'm really, really hoping things hold together to at least give me some rain but this pattern isn't good for me. I don't think the front makes it further south than the Panhandle before it stalls out tomorrow morning and then starts to move north again Monday as a warn front.
Just for laughs. GEM 240 hours out.

Pretty nice video of yesterday's tornado. Pretty intense wind noise at about 2:20 minute mark.
Link

Some bad language near the end of the video - be warned

Can also see some the multiple vortices dancing around down at the base.
Quoting 273. KoritheMan:


I would always rather be called by my real name instead of my handle; even if I didn't have this moniker. I'm not really sure why most people don't. It's fun, and actually adds legitimate personality.

Hello Kori..I picked mine from an old Rochester yacht my a friend of mine owned many years ago. He has since past on. He served his country well, was a good Father, and a good friend. I miss him very much.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Pretty nice video of yesterday's tornado. Pretty intense wind noise at about 2:20 minute mark.
Link

Some bad language near the end of the video - be warned

Can also see some the multiple vortices dancing around down at the base.
Other than being badly out of focus much of the time, that was a nice video.

IMO, there's no such thing as "bad language". Words are, after all, just words. Some have for various reasons been deemed by society to be more unacceptable than others. But words are just strings of sounds; there's nothing innately "bad" with any of them...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035 >038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-112015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BECOME
STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS EVENING.