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200 Years Ago This Week: Tambora's Eruption Causes a Planet-Wide Climate Emergency

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:33 PM GMT on April 07, 2015

Two hundred years ago this week, an obscure volcano in Indonesia named Tambora rumbled to life after centuries of dormancy. On April 5, 1815, huge plumes of fire jetted from the mountain for three hours, rocking the ground and painfully assaulting the ears of the local residents. But the eruption suddenly stopped, and the great mountain lapsed back into a fitful slumber. During the week that followed, Tambora sent occasional plumes of ash into the air, but most of the residents that had fled the initial eruption returned to farm the fertile soils on the flanks of the volcano. But on April 10, 1815, the mightiest volcanic explosion ever witnessed and recorded by humans rent Tambora in a cataclysmic eruption heard more than 1,200 miles (2,000 km) away. As recounted in Gillen D'Arcy Wood's excellent 2014 book, Tambora: The Eruption That Changed the World, "three distant columns of fire burst in cacophonous roar from the summit to the west, blanketing the stars and uniting in a ball of swirling flame. The mountain itself began to glow as stream of boiling liquified rock coursed down its slopes." Whole villages, totaling perhaps 10,000 people, were consumed by fiery pyroclastic flows. Tambora threw so much rock into the air that the mountain collapsed in on itself, chopping 9/10 of a mile (1.5 km) off the height of the mountain, and creating a massive caldera 4 miles (7 km) wide. The volcano's ash cloud covered an area nearly twice the size of the continental U.S., and at least 60,000 people died from the combined effect of Tambora's ash, pyroclastic flows, and tsunamis.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the caldera of Indonesia's Mount Tambora, formed during the colossal 1815 eruption. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Tambora creates a climate emergency
Tabora's eruption was a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).

The Tambora eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F) for 1 - 2 years afterward, triggering the infamous Year Without a Summer in 1816. In Western Europe, summer temperatures in 1816 were up to 3°C (5.4°F) below average, resulting in crop yields that plunged more than 75%. Tens of thousands died of starvation, and tens of thousands more died in the typhus epidemic that followed. The situation was even more dire in India, where the eruption caused the failure of the monsoon rains from June through August 1816--the longest recorded break in the Southwest Monsoon in recorded history. The resulting famine and cholera epidemic that erupted ended up killing millions over the next few decades. Unprecedented July snows also hit Yunnan, China in 1816, resulting in widespread famine, and killing frosts in June, July, and August 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures. A cold wave on June 5 - 11 dumped up to a foot of snow on the Northeast U.S., and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August.


Figure 2. Summertime temperatures in Europe during the summer of 1816 were up to 3°C (5.4°F) below average over France, Switzerland, and Spain. Image credit: Giorgiogp2 on Wikipedia Commons.


Figure 3. A promotional photo of Boris Karloff as Frankenstein's monster, using Jack Pierce's makeup design. The failure of the Southwest Monsoon in 1816 due to the ash cloud from Tambora caused storm tracks over Western Europe to shift to the south, and recurrent low pressure systems brought cold air and heavy and long-lasting rainfall to western and central Europe. While trapped indoors for weeks by constant rain and gloomy skies during her vacation at Lake Geneva in Switzerland during the summer of 1816, Mary Shelley was inspired to write Frankenstein, a horror novel set in an often stormy environment. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Magnitude 7 Super-colossal eruptions
In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Magnitude 8 Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. A mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra (Indonesia), about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of Tambora of 1815 and Pinatubo of 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), and the controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs, creating a "genetic bottleneck".


Figure 4. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next magnitude 8 eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 5), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 5. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 Tambora eruption of 1815 would cause cause isolated regional crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, such a volcanic eruption might trigger regional famine, threatening the lives of millions of people and potentially igniting wars over scarce resources. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a super-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1.8°F (1°C) warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

For further information
Tambora: The Eruption That Changed the World, a 2014 book by Gillen D'Arcy Wood, is an excellent read.

Volcanic Winter, my April 2009 post.

Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.

Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

The International Conference on Volcanoes, Climate, and Society is holding a special conference this week in Switzerland, Bicentenary of the great Tambora eruption (thanks go to Mike Chenoweth for alerting me to this.)

References
Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Jeff Masters

Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
nice
Thanks Doc!
I never saw a forecast like that since Hurricane Rick 2009 O_O:



Very aggressive. This is spectacular!

Can be the third category 5 tropical cyclone of the season and the 5th category 5 storm in the world and still Early April! O_O Really impressive!
Great Blog!! Mix it up!!
Frankenstein! Nice blog Dr. Masters. Love climate history.
Thanks for the update doc!
I had to go look at the Krakatoa eruption. While only a VEI of 6 it had a pretty significant effect along with killing quite a large number of people.

Both were catastrophic eruptions, within the same 100 year period (and both are relatively near each other).

Biggest difference is I think Toba is a super volcano while Krakatoa was not (but it sure packed a punch)

There is so much variability on when they erupt of course. Pinatubo seems to go off every 500 or so years give or take, if the history of American Indian tribes is correct (was passed down through generations of summers of near constant rain) I remember Pinatubo well, it was the summer that I didn't get to stay outside much as a kid because all it did was rain, nearly every day the whole summer.

Excellent post Doc, Thanks! we all often forget how volcanoes can be movers and shakers
Thanks Doc..Volcanoes are amazing...Pinatubo was a monster, and erupted with a typhoon moving in...What horror the experience must have been.
10. JRRP
Thanks Doc, MS River froze pretty far S that winter if I remember, not long after New Madrid made it flow N. Was it Vicksburg or farther S (NO)?

Had about .35" in gauge, pretty bright from N to SW now, though still see clouds in the breaks. Up into lower 60s now, will really need to clear out to reach that lower 70s forecast high. Press down a little, below 29.9" now.

BTW did get out to woods yesterday, poison ivy buds hadn't even swelled yet, but did find one small morel. However, was very surprised as it was yellow brown rather than gray black, a first for first 'shroom. Expect more will be out Sun, after rain and warmer temps. Probably will need ATV to get back there though, if get anywhere near the forecast rain totals. About time to get it out of storage anyway!
Most people go about their lives without a thought of danger coming from within (Earth changing volcanic eruption) or above (Life ending asteroid or comet).

And geologic history proves it's only a question of when.
Will it be next week or 10,000 years from now?
Horripilating post, doc, thank you, *shiver*, *shiver* ;-)


06.11.2012: Rare Journey Into World's Deepest Crater Tambora, Indonesia, Sumbawa.
A film by RIKSESSION 2012. shot in 1080p HD
Major Major news the NMME updated for everyone to see and good lord folks this El-Nino may very well be one of the strongest we've seen in quite sometime. Very similar to 1997 with these models. Look at the eerie consistency with these models.



OH MY

I'm surprised at the blog today. The oil and coal industries love these distractions in the climate discussion. Lets talk about the asteroid and the solar eruption that are coming soon (within the next million years), to a theater near you.
We are changing the worlds climate right now. By the time a mega volcano erupts, we will be long gone.
Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

Major Major news the NMME updated for everyone to see and good lord folks this El-Nino may very well be one of the strongest we've seen in quite sometime. Very similar to 1997 with these models. Look at the eerie consistency with these models.



OH MY


Scott you are relentless!! I have wondered if you are a lobbyist for El-Nino! I enjoy your posts and enthusiasm and hope a super strong one comes along, having lived so many many years in California and now in Northern AZ.
The volcanic cooling follwing the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 was very noticable in the spring and summer of 1992. Dynamics made for a hot July in the Mid Atlantic but June and August were cool. Frosts were obseved as far south and east as Indiana in June. There was also a dramatic and unseasonal snowstorm in the Northern Rocky Mountains in late August, a few weeks premature. Yeah it can happen in modern times. It was very clear by early summer that the polar vortex was going to remain stronger than usual and the Arctic not warm up as much as it normally does.


Storms filling in across Orlando and starting to pop up in the Tampa area.
Quoting 15. wxmod:

I'm surprised at the blog today. The oil and coal industries love these distractions in the climate discussion. Lets talk about the asteroid and the solar eruption that are coming soon (within the next million years), to a theater near you.
We are changing the worlds climate right now. By the time a mega volcano erupts, we will be long gone.


Not necessarily. It could happen any time with a few months warming and we might be overly confident we'll get even that.
Quoting 16. Wolfberry:

Scott you are relentless!! I have wondered if you are a lobbyist for El-Nino! I enjoy your posts and enthusiasm and hope a super strong one comes along, having lived so many many years in California and now in Northern AZ.


The consistency in those dynamical models is incredible as all but one is grouped in the same area around 2.1 or 2.2C.
Summer looks like its here in Orlando.


Major Major news the NMME updated for everyone to see and good lord folks this El-Nino may very well be one of the strongest we've seen in quite sometime. Very similar to 1997 with these models. Look at the eerie consistency with these models.



what similarity to 97 do you mean by these models?
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:

Summer looks like its here in Orlando.




Conditions are ripe for storms here later:
SPC bumped up Wednesday to Enhanced.



Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

Major Major news the NMME updated for everyone to see and good lord folks this El-Nino may very well be one of the strongest we've seen in quite sometime. Very similar to 1997 with these models. Look at the eerie consistency with these models.



OH MY


Scott tone down the hype.
Quoting 22. ricderr:


Major Major news the NMME updated for everyone to see and good lord folks this El-Nino may very well be one of the strongest we've seen in quite sometime. Very similar to 1997 with these models. Look at the eerie consistency with these models.



what similarity to 97 do you mean by these models?


If this does pan out then we may have the first reading over 2.0C in Nino 3.4 since 1997.
Quoting 20. StormTrackerScott:



The consistency in those dynamical models is incredible as all but one is grouped in the same area around 2.1 or 2.2C.
I still expect a weak to moderate el nino at best.
Hmm
Quoting 15. wxmod:

I'm surprised at the blog today. The oil and coal industries love these distractions in the climate discussion. [snip]

That's why this post was written, quotation from the entry:
"Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade."
If this does pan out then we may have the first reading over 2.0C in Nino 3.4 since 1997.

does this mean you're going to change your 1.8 / 1.9 numbers??????

not that i'm gonna serve you crow or anything when these numbers don't pan out...i would never do that...cough cough...LOL
Quoting 29. ricderr:

If this does pan out then we may have the first reading over 2.0C in Nino 3.4 since 1997.

does this mean you're going to change your 1.8 / 1.9 numbers??????

not that i'm gonna serve you crow or anything when these numbers don't pan out...i would never do that...cough cough...LOL


Nope, I'm staying in that range as that is a safe bet but you can't ignore these models being that consistent. I am staying right at 1.8C as a max come November or December.
Post about models showing a strong to record-breaking El Nino. Show the developing subsurface warm pool and claim that significant warming is coming. Realize that the strong El Nino is not going to materialize this year. Start forecasting strong to record-breaking El Nino for year 2.

Same formula for 3 years now.

We're currently on step 2. Let's see how long it takes to get to step 3.
Just got blasted with a severe thunderstorm with 60mph wind and penny sized hail.

Still raining hard.

TOR:CON for Thursday is a 5 now. We're doomed.

I'm putting DOOM:CON at 6 for Thursday (4 for Tornadoes, 1 for wind, 1 for hail.)

Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Post about models showing a strong to record-breaking El Nino. Show the developing subsurface warm pool. Realize that the strong El Nino is not going to materialize this year. Start forecasting strong to record-breaking El Nino for year 2.

Same formula for 3 years now.


A senior forecaster at the NHC posted a Tweet last week I believe about this El-Nino being very strong due record PDO readings and growing sub surface warm pool. Sorry man but we didn't have this type of consistency last year heck the models weren't even this robust last year. This event appears it may be significant to say the least.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
SPC bumped up Wednesday to Enhanced.





And I'm stuck in a Marginal 5%. :'(
Nope, I'm staying in that range as that is a safe bet but you can't ignore these models being that consistent. I am staying right at 1.8C as a max come November or December.

but scott....at this time last year the dynamical models were also consistent........and as i showed in the last blog...the gfdl got it right in their june model run...depicting no el nino until winter and a weak one at that....but in their april run.....the gfdl run expected an anomaly over 1.5 c.....there's such a huge error rate at this time of year...to get excited about it....well....we know in your world you do...and that's fine...but pardon many of us if we don't get excited...nor even if it pans out that we go that high....we still don't jump and cheer for you...because at this time of year...to make a prediction based on a model that is prone to have a high rate of errors....well..it's just foolish
This map looks pretty happy now. :)

Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Post about models showing a strong to record-breaking El Nino. Show the developing subsurface warm pool and claim that significant warming is coming. Realize that the strong El Nino is not going to materialize this year. Start forecasting strong to record-breaking El Nino for year 2.

Same formula for 3 years now.

We're currently on step 2. Let's see how long it takes to get to step 3.


So what will you say if we have strong El-Nino by September, heck back in January you were also on the bash Scott crew saying there wouldn't even be a El-Nino in Summer 2015 and you obviously were wrong on that account so are you on Step 3?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


There's a stationary front to the north of us??

And a cold front to the west of us??

And a dryline in Oklahoma and Texas??
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:



A senior forecaster at the NHC posted a Tweet last week I believe about this El-Nino being very strong due record PDO readings and growing sub surface warm pool. Sorry man but we didn't have this type of consistency last year heck the models weren't even this robust last year. This event appears it may be significant to say the least.

Model forecasts with regard to ENSO have been poor at best over the past 3 years, especially from the CFS and ECMWF, so I really couldn't care less how robust they are lol. I don't think we're at the point where we can confidently forecast evolving El Ninos yet.
Just for perspective on this year vs. last year...





Don't buy the hype until we get a little way past the spring barrier.
Quoting 35. ricderr:

Nope, I'm staying in that range as that is a safe bet but you can't ignore these models being that consistent. I am staying right at 1.8C as a max come November or December.

but scott....at this time last year the dynamical models were also consistent........and as i showed in the last blog...the gfdl got it right in their june model run...depicting no el nino until winter and a weak one at that....but in their april run.....the gfdl run expected an anomaly over 1.5 c.....there's such a huge error rate at this time of year...to get excited about it....well....we know in your world you do...and that's fine...but pardon many of us if we don't get excited...nor even if it pans out that we go that high....we still don't jump and cheer for you...because at this time of year...to make a prediction based on a model that is prone to have a high rate of errors....well..it's just foolish


I think there is enough evidence out there to say we may very well see a 1.8C El-Nino reading in 3.4. As it stands we are already half thru the Spring Barrier and the models are getting even more consistent now.
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



Nope, I'm staying in that range as that is a safe bet but you can't ignore these models being that consistent. I am staying right at 1.8C as a max come November or December.


I have a healthy scepticism for long range computer models, be it climate change predictions for several decades hence, or El Nino predictions for several months. They are nothing like as reliable as some folk seem to think. Climate is too complex, and our understanding of the variables too incomplete.

I'm also pretty sure that the models are not as independent of each other as they like to appear. I'm sure there's an element of 'groupthink'.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:



A senior forecaster at the NHC posted a Tweet last week I believe about this El-Nino being very strong due record PDO readings and growing sub surface warm pool. Sorry man but we didn't have this type of consistency last year heck the models weren't even this robust last year. This event appears it may be significant to say the least.
Is the big Nino gonna eat us all up.?
It is getting heavy again!!!
Carbon Monoxide. From NASA.

Quoting 62901IL:


There's a stationary front to the north of us??

And a cold front to the west of us??

And a dryline in Oklahoma and Texas??


I'm looking at those temperatures in the mid 80s back in Oklahoma.

If the dry line punches into central Oklahoma mid to late afternoon tomorrow look out.


Rain beginning in Tampa.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm looking at those temperatures in the mid 80s back in Oklahoma.

If the dry line punches into central Oklahoma mid to late afternoon tomorrow look out.


In Oklahoma, Carbondale IL or where?
Quoting 48. tampabaymatt:



Rain beginning in Tampa.
push some this way matt
Quoting 40. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Model forecasts with regard to ENSO have been poor at best over the past 3 years, especially from the CFS and ECMWF, so I really couldn't care less how robust they are lol. I don't think we're at the point where we can confidently forecast evolving El Ninos yet.
New SPC outlook



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO
AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY. A VERY MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA.

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC
LINES IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS IN
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING
CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY STILL EVOLVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A BIT MURKY.


THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS A FOCUS
FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
SUPPORT FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS UNCLEAR...BUT THIS REGION IS NEAR
THE NOSE OF STRONGER ONGOING SURFACE HEATING...ALONG THE DRYLINE.
AND...LIKE DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IT
APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE GRADIENT OF STRONGER INHIBITION ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. SO INITIATION OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NORTH...BASED LARGELY ON LATEST STORM REPORTS...5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ACTIVITY APPEARS GENERALLY DRIVEN
BY A SUBSTANTIVE AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...BASED WITHIN A
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE COLD STABLE AIR
TO THE COOL SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. A FURTHER
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS FORCING
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS
THOUGH...MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WANE BY AROUND 00-02Z.
Quoting 50. LargoFl:

push some this way matt


The storm is meandering southwest, so you may catch an outflow boundary if it kicks up enough.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...FAR SW IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...

VALID 071953Z - 072130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A TRANSITION FROM A
CONTINUOUS LINE OF TSTMS WITH AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR TWO TO A MORE
DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH TWO DISTINCT SUPERCELLS...ONE OVER SRN IL
AND THE OTHER APPROACHING EVV IN FAR SW INDIANA. RADAR DATA FROM THE
VWX RADAR SHOWED A DECENT VELOCITY COUPLET AT 1925Z WITH MORE RECENT
SCANS SHOWING A STRONG RFD WITH A LARGE AREA OF OUTBOUND VELOCITIES
OVER 60 KT. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN SVR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

PAST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM PAH INDICATE THE WRN SUPERCELL HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE MUTLICELL MODE
ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA AS
WELL WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..MOSIER.. 04/07/2015


ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

This is Oxnard, CA They have an 80% chance of rain.
I think there is enough evidence out there to say we may very well see a 1.8C El-Nino reading in 3.4. As it stands we are already half thru the Spring Barrier and the models are getting even more consistent now.

scott...last year...same bat time...and same bat channel.....we were hearing from you and a few mets......that we were do for a super el nino......and we heard the same reasons for it as you are touting now...models in agreement......huge kelvin wave.....and it didn't materialize....now personally....i'd be a little humbled by being that far off...you on the other hand...are doubling down....one day....we have to meet in vegas
Quoting 62901IL:


In Oklahoma, Carbondale IL or where?


Back in Oklahoma and central Kansas along the dry line and near the triple point. But Thursday conditions will shift further to the N.E. more into Illinois.
Quoting 56. PedleyCA:


This is Oxnard, CA They have an 80% chance of rain.



Of course it's going to reach the SFV just in time for my 2pm lunch break. Of course it is.
large winter calibre storm n.pac 180hr ww3
Quoting Jeff Masters:
With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced,
I suppose so, though likely not as much as one might imagine. For one thing, with the darkness and widespread cold, it's not hard to imagine utilities being cranked up to hyperdrive to provide enough heat and light for the billions remaining. On top of that, the emergency situation would almost certainly lead to dumping of environmental regulations surrounding the burning of fossil fuels, so utilities would be more likely to drill and dig everywhere for whatever they could burn. For these reasons, along with a few others, I believe CO2 emissions might actually increase in the aftermath of a VE8 eruption--and all that CO2 emitted would be cramming the atmosphere, just biding its time until the sulfur aerosols dissipated...
i understand why la nina is a dirty word around here. getting to la nina i believe historically has the worst hurricanes.
One of the driest places on earth





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Quoting 59. TimSoCal:



Of course it's going to reach the SFV just in time for my 2pm lunch break. Of course it is.


I think you should take what you can get at this point. Lots of sunny lunch breaks on the horizon for you :)
65. vis0
The Dr. did not include in (if i may steal a line from Bugs),  his "What ifs? Doc".  What  if  the Yellowstone Caldera as pointed out in the blogbytes topic above:: "......A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera
in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every
650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000
years ago......"
   goes off, oh lets say ~ 2030 AD  how will that affect the bomb silos, will there be a chain reaction and cause the western third of the USofA to be separated by the over-filling Pacific? just a thought.
Is the La Garita eruption the one that formed the Guffey Crater? In HS geology we were taught that the Guffey Crater was either the world's largest crater at 26 miles long, or the most explosive.
Time out on the El-Nino, I gotta make some more popcorn! ((with Fresca of course)
Quoting ricderr:
I think there is enough evidence out there to say we may very well see a 1.8C El-Nino reading in 3.4. As it stands we are already half thru the Spring Barrier and the models are getting even more consistent now.

scott...last year...same bat time...and same bat channel.....we were hearing from you and a few mets......that we were do for a super el nino......and we heard the same reasons for it as you are touting now...models in agreement......huge kelvin wave.....and it didn't materialize....now personally....i'd be a little humbled by being that far off...you on the other hand...are doubling down....one day....we have to meet in vegas

Pressure at Darwin - 29.83

Pressure at Papeete, French Polynesia, where I'd much rather be right now - 29.83

The pressure gradient is certainly not consistent with any kind of El Nino yet let alone an OMG! variety.
Quoting 44. hydrus:

Is the big Nino gonna eat us all up.?


It'll definitely 'eat up' the marine wildlife on the west coast of the Americas, particularly near the equator. Up to 90% of bird species, such as pelicans, die off there during strong El Ninos. Millions of sea lion pups starve to death because their mothers can't catch enough food to produce milk, Galapagos marine iguanas and flightless cormorant numbers (to name but a few) are drastically reduced. It ain't pretty.

Seems like its raining everywhere in Orlando metro except where I live. Storms all around us and they are not moving. We are getting bone dry here in Sanford near Lake Jesup
Quoting wxgeek723:
Power surge in Maryland cuts electricity to DC
Looks like PEPCO lost a big transformer at a "transfer station" (most likely a switchyard) that fed a 230 kv line. That's a big line and probably one of the backbone lines for the DC area. Losing that much capacity in a couple of seconds probably caused a lot of other switchyards and substations to go into self protection mode and pop off. They should be able to isolate that line and bring all the other stations back on line in a few hours. PEPCO seems to have some kind of problem with either equipment or (more likely) maintenance procedures. They did almost the same thing in December.
Quoting sanflee76:
Seems like its raining everywhere in Orlando metro except where I live. Storms all around us and they are not moving. We are getting bone dry here in Sanford near Lake Jesup
Join the club. I have the same problem here in SE AL.. With only o.72" of rain in the past 30 days, it's getting real dry here. I live near a huge lake, and that thing seems to eat thunderstorms for lunch. There will be an inch of rain 10 miles from me and all I get is heat and humidity. 92 here with a 67 degree dewpoint and the closest rain to me is down by Tallahassee.
Mhhhh funny some of the pros are forecasting a moderate el nino at best....But that's none of my business...Back to lurking/missing mode.
Quoting 71. sanflee76:

Seems like its raining everywhere in Orlando metro except where I live. Storms all around us and they are not moving. We are getting bone dry here in Sanford near Lake Jesup
I know how you feel, i haven't seen rain in 3 months.
77. vis0

Quoting 28. barbamz:


That's why this post was written, quotation from the entry:
"Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade."
We'd have a decade w/o "image host "
...oh good...at least sar2401 understands THIS COMMENT.

Quoting 73. sar2401:

Looks like PEPCO lost a big transformer at a "transfer station" (most likely a switchyard) that fed a 230 kv line. That's a big line and probably one of the backbone lines for the DC area. Losing that much capacity in a couple of seconds probably caused a lot of other switchyards and substations to go into self protection mode and pop off. They should be able to isolate that line and bring all the other stations back on line in a few hours. PEPCO seems to have some kind of problem with either equipment or (more likely) maintenance procedures. They did almost the same thing in December.
According to PEPCO a transmission line fell and arcing occurred causing breakers to trip.
it's actually raining.
Quoting 38. StormTrackerScott:



So what will you say if we have strong El-Nino by September, heck back in January you were also on the bash Scott crew saying there wouldn't even be a El-Nino in Summer 2015 and you obviously were wrong on that account so are you on Step 3?

Disagreeing with someone does not equate to bashing them.

I know this is hard for you to understand, but it's okay to be skeptical of ENSO modelling occasionally. :)
Quoting TimSoCal:
Just for perspective on this year vs. last year...





Don't buy the hype until we get a little way past the spring barrier.


Yep

Btw so you have one for first week of April last year
Quoting 64. tampabaymatt:



I think you should take what you can get at this point. Lots of sunny lunch breaks on the horizon for you :)


Oh, I'll definitely take it. Just funny timing is all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Disagreeing with someone does not equate to bashing them.

I know this is hard for you to understand, but it's okay to be skeptical of ENSO modelling occasionally. :)

+1
Last year forecast say moderate strong El nino if I can recall and didn't really happen so you really think I'm gonna buy into the same forecast again the same way
Quoting 81. wunderkidcayman:



Yep

Btw so you have one for first week of April last year


Nah I pulled the 3/29/14 one from one of the guest posts Dr. Ventrice did here last year.
Link


Update on today's severe weather as well as what we could see in the next couple of days.
Quoting 63. Grothar:


Amazing video! Looked at the comment section (a mistake) under the video on YT though..Ekk! all the conspiracy people are out in full force.
Well just found it was 1899 when MS River froze all the way to NO, can't find anything for 1815 or 1816 in pretty basic search. Maybe the sulfur layer insulated a little and not as cold in winter?


We're still 7-8 degrees from forecast highs, looks like we'll miss on low side again. Just miss enhanced area for now. Should be interesting next couple of days, even Chicago has a Torcon (4) for Thurs. Cubs already cancelled tonight's game w/ the 'birds due to expected cold temps, guess we'll see about day game tomorrow. At least I won't be switching back and forth w/ Blues game like I was Sunday night.
U.S. hurricane forecasters embark to Mexico & Caribbean on preparedness mission

Locations and times for public tours are listed below (all times are local):
April 20, 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. – Merida, Mexico
April 21, 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. – Cozumel, Mexico
April 22, 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. – Bonaire
April 23, 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. – Santo Domingo, D.R.
April 24, 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. – St. Kitts
April 24, 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. – St. Eustatius
April 25, 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. – San Juan, P.R.
I like to joke that I make about one post per month on ENSO. This will be that post for the month. I think we are probably evolving towards a moderate-strong El Nino for the summer months. Several favorable factors pointing in that direction. The sub-surface warm pool is more impressive than last year's; maybe not quite as big but further east and closer to the surface, and still intensifying. Very warm PDO. SOI more consistently negative, average of about -10 for the past month. And of course the models, which while not exactly trustworthy, can't be completely ignored. Do not focus on day-to-day SST changes, especially Nino 1+2. You'll go crazy. But as that warm pool continues to surface, we should see a trend towards higher average anomalies, maybe +1-1.5C in 3.4 and +1.5-2C in 1+2 for mid-late summer. Could be wrong though; maybe it busts again. Not an easy science.



By the way, great blog Dr. Masters, volcanoes are pretty neat.


Louisville, Kentucky (sister town of my place in Germany) gets it once again right now.
Webcam.
Quoting 91. MAweatherboy1:

I like to joke that I make about one post per month on ENSO. This will be that post for the month. I think we are probably evolving towards a moderate-strong El Nino for the summer months. Several favorable factors pointing in that direction. The sub-surface warm pool is more impressive than last year's; maybe not quite as big but further east and closer to the surface, and still intensifying. Very warm PDO. SOI more consistently negative, average of about -10 for the past month. And of course the models, which while not exactly trustworthy, can't be completely ignored. Do not focus on day-to-day SST changes, especially Nino 1+2. You'll go crazy. But as that warm pool continues to surface, we should see a trend towards higher average anomalies, maybe +1-1.5C in 3.4 and +1.5-2C in 1+2 for mid-late summer. Could be wrong though; maybe it busts again. Not an easy science.



By the way, great blog Dr. Masters, volcanoes are pretty neat.


Scott...you should know better than to sneak into someones house and use their PC... :) :)
NWS Wichita excerpt:

STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING...AS BULGE
IN THE DRYLINE PUSHES INTO AREAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KICT AND
KHUT METRO AREAS. INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WED WHICH WILL HELP STORMS DEVELOP. BULK
SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2200-2500 J/KG SUGGESTS ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. NOT EXPECTING STORMS
TO BE WIDESPREAD...WITH MORE DISCRETE/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. BUT
CERTAINLY THINK THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL OF
2 INCHES OR GREATER AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT WINDS. 0-3KM SHEAR ALSO
SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AND SURFACE WINDS VEER SOME FORM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 23-
24Z. 0-8KM SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THAT DEVELOPS...MAY END UP
STAYING ON THE GROUND FOR AWHILE...WITH A POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADO.
Quoting 69. sar2401:


Pressure at Darwin - 29.83

Pressure at Papeete, French Polynesia, where I'd much rather be right now - 29.83

The pressure gradient is certainly not consistent with any kind of El Nino yet let alone an OMG! variety.


There's a reason why long-term metrics are used for this noisy index...

BTW, the Troup methodology the Australian BOM uses to calculate SOI is thru using the pressure anomaly difference between Tahiti & Darwin and dividing the standard deviation of the difference multiplied by 10 (hence, values +/- 10 from the mean are considered ~1.0 STD from normal). Equivalent SLP between these two stations as you're claiming, to be somehow "not consistent with any kind of El Nino" is entirely false, equivalent SLP at Tahiti & Darwin actually would equate to an SOI value of about -20, and this makes sense considering Tahiti's MSLP (for 1948-2014) is about 3-4mb higher than Darwin's.

Quoting 93. Abacosurf:



Scott...you should know better than to sneak into someones house and use their PC... :) :)

Lol, nah, that's too tempered to be Scott's writing. For me though that's a pretty bold forecast, I rarely like to put my neck out too far with anything.
Funny radar feature showing up in southeastern California (saved loops below). Like the trails of four giant jets in the sky - in fact it's the jet stream (polar jet and subtropical jet merging?), I guess.




Source.


Source.


Source.

Good night with this.
the gulf is on fire ;)###
Quoting 97. barbamz:

Funny radar feature showing up in southeastern California (saved loops below). Like the trails of four giants jets in the sky - in fact it's the jet stream (polar jet and subtropical jet merging?), I guess.









Good night with this.



Interesting... i've never seen anything like that on radar!

Nothing yet, still @30%, stuff to the far West of us.
Quoting 88. dabirds:

Well just found it was 1899 when MS River froze all the way to NO, can't find anything for 1815 or 1816 in pretty basic search. Maybe the sulfur layer insulated a little and not as cold in winter?


We're still 7-8 degrees from forecast highs, looks like we'll miss on low side again. Just miss enhanced area for now. Should be interesting next couple of days, even Chicago has a Torcon (4) for Thurs. Cubs already cancelled tonight's game w/ the 'birds due to expected cold temps, guess we'll see about day game tomorrow. At least I won't be switching back and forth w/ Blues game like I was Sunday night.




Picture of a snowball fight in Tallahassee from that system. Apparently north of Tampa blizzard like conditions were reported due to ocean-effect snow. The event also recorded my city's (Atlanta) all time low of -9F. Pretty incredible.
Quoting nymore:

According to PEPCO a transmission line fell and arcing occurred causing breakers to trip.
It's a good story if nothing else. They really have problems if they're dropping 230 kv lines.
Quoting barbamz:
Funny radar feature showing up in southeastern California (saved loops below). Like the trails of four giants jets in the sky - in fact it's the jet stream (polar jet and subtropical jet merging?), I guess.




Source.


Source.


Source.

Good night with this.
Pretty weird. Given where it started and where it stopped as well as the pattern, my guess is this is some kind of military chaff/anti-radar spoofing, but that's just a guess.
Very interesting .....
Quoting Webberweather53:


There's a reason why long-term metrics are used for this noisy index...

BTW, the Troup methodology the Australian BOM uses to calculate SOI is thru using the pressure anomaly difference between Tahiti & Darwin and dividing the standard deviation of the difference multiplied by 10 (hence, values +/- 10 from the mean are considered ~1.0 STD from normal). Equivalent SLP between these two stations as you're claiming, to be somehow "not consistent with any kind of El Nino" is entirely false, equivalent SLP at Tahiti & Darwin actually would equate to an SOI value of about -20, and this makes sense considering Tahiti's MSLP (for 1948-2014) is about 3-4mb higher than Darwin's.

I realize one day does not make a forecast. Are saying one of the fingerprints of an El Nino is not a negative Darwin-Tahiti pressure differential?
Quoting xcool:
the gulf is on fire ;)###
And Leon is getting larger..." :0
Quoting 100. PedleyCA:


Nothing yet, still @30%, stuff to the far West of us.

Only had enough to wet ~80% of the pavement here. Doesn't look like we'll get the ~.25" we expected.
What would this mean for us here in Central Florida?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Major Major news the NMME updated for everyone to see and good lord folks this El-Nino may very well be one of the strongest we've seen in quite sometime. Very similar to 1997 with these models. Look at the eerie consistency with these models.



OH MY

Quoting 107. LowerCal:


Only had enough to wet ~80% of the pavement here. Doesn't look like we'll get the ~.25" we expected.


That sounds about normal, or or would me here. (.84 since 2/1/15)
Looks like spring is here...

Quoting 108. hurricanewatcher61:

What would this mean for us here in Central Florida?



snowstorms
Quoting 109. PedleyCA:



That sounds about normal, or or would me here. (.84 since 2/1/15)

We've been getting the holes in the green or the edges of the holes. In a normal year we'd see a number of these spotty hit & miss events. This is what we expect of an April event if we even have one.
Quoting 109. PedleyCA:



That sounds about normal, or or would me here. (.84 since 2/1/15)


hey Ped - Warm here - about 50F and it rained a lot today. Wish I could send some your way.
Real funny Taz!
Quoting Tazmanian:



snowstorms
115. beell
Quoting 103. sar2401:

Pretty weird. Given where it started and where it stopped as well as the pattern, my guess is this is some kind of military chaff/anti-radar spoofing, but that's just a guess.



Maybe it's like clouds or somethin'


Quoting 105. sar2401:

I realize one day does not make a forecast. Are saying one of the fingerprints of an El Nino is not a negative Darwin-Tahiti pressure differential?


No, it's clear that wasn't the focus of my post. I wrote it to show that your assumption that equivalent raw MSLP between Tahiti & Darwin somehow isn't indicative of an El Nino is entirely incorrect when the background MSLP is significantly lower at Darwin to begin with. Thus, over longer intervals that smear out some of the higher frequency sub-seasonal variability associated w/ TCs, synoptic scale weather systems, the MJO, & various Eq wave types, etc., considering the "typical" background states of these locations, when the raw MSLP b/t Darwin & Tahiti is approximately equivalent, it actually is indicative of slackening easterly trade winds & weaker zonal pressure asymmetry across the Equatorial Pacific. This also means that at least the atmosphere is moving towards, or is already well entrenched into a base state that favors the expression of El Nino...
Quoting 111. Tazmanian:




snowstorms

And I changed out my snow tires to summer / rain tires already - dang !!
Quoting 108. hurricanewatcher61:

What would this mean for us here in Central Florida?

Hot, humid weather through at least October with a chance of Thunderstorms all through the summer months
Quoting 114. hurricanewatcher61:

Real funny Taz!



APR fools
Funding for hurricane research slashed.
Link
Quoting 103. sar2401:

Pretty weird. Given where it started and where it stopped as well as the pattern, my guess is this is some kind of military chaff/anti-radar spoofing, but that's just a guess.
Looks like chaff. I think they like messing with us weather buffs by throwing that stuff around.
123. beell
Quoting 119. Barefootontherocks:




Gee, where's the boundary, bf?
You have to admit, the last image looks awfully hot

Less than 60 days until the start of the 2015 Hurricane Season.
Fifty-three days, I think.

SST Anomaly NHC.NOAA.GOV
Quoting 74. sar2401:

Join the club. I have the same problem here in SE AL.. With only o.72" of rain in the past 30 days, it's getting real dry here. I live near a huge lake, and that thing seems to eat thunderstorms for lunch. There will be an inch of rain 10 miles from me and all I get is heat and humidity. 92 here with a 67 degree dewpoint and the closest rain to me is down by Tallahassee.


0.72 in 30 days? Gosh that's bad, and I thought we were well below normal here in Florida, your area takes the cake.
Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like spring is here...



Join the club.
It's been spring here for at least two weeks now...
Severe weather prediction on track to play out
Wichita and Kansas City in the center of severe weather outbreak
Quoting 120. Tazmanian:




APR fools


Better late than never...
Warm and humid in North Central Florida. In the upper 80s today with heat lightning to the SW, Went from a cold winter to the mid 80s in early March.

Was working outside today and had to put on insect repellent to keep the skeeters away. Too early for this weather to suit me.
Interesting Severe T-storm watch just came out, look at what I put in bold:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...

DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITH
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE QUICKLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...NAMELY WITHIN THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORM INITIATION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...MEAD
If you are a current college student, I posted an article in comment #619 in my blog that I'd like your opinion of.
133. txjac
Quoting 130. Wacahootaman:

Warm and humid in North Central Florida. In the upper 80s today with heat lightning to the SW, Went from a cold winter to the mid 80s in early March.

Was working outside today and had to put on insect repellent to keep the skeeters away. Too early for this weather to suit me.


I 100% agree with you. Went from very comfortable 60's to 80's like overnight!
Happened way to quickly. Would have preferred a more gradual warm up
Quoting dabirds:
Well just found it was 1899 when MS River froze all the way to NO, can't find anything for 1815 or 1816 in pretty basic search. Maybe the sulfur layer insulated a little and not as cold in winter?


We're still 7-8 degrees from forecast highs, looks like we'll miss on low side again. Just miss enhanced area for now. Should be interesting next couple of days, even Chicago has a Torcon (4) for Thurs. Cubs already cancelled tonight's game w/ the 'birds due to expected cold temps, guess we'll see about day game tomorrow. At least I won't be switching back and forth w/ Blues game like I was Sunday night.


1816 featured the "year without a summer". The winters of 1815-1816 and 1816-1817 had below normal temperatures in the eastern USA but not exceptionally so.

Shouldn't be long now....
136. vis0
Quoting 97. barbamz:

Funny radar feature showing up in southeastern California (saved loops below). Like the trails of four giant jets in the sky - in fact it's the jet stream (polar jet and subtropical jet merging?), I guess.




Source.


Source.


Source.

Good night with this.
This could trigger some storms this AM (Tue into Wed) in the MIDWEST, i tried to trace the Jet Streaks back but on the 5th i could not download 3 hrs worth of 3 WPAC Satellites so the earliest i could retrace WHAT i THOUGH was the jet streaks was April 5th 2015 @2045 UTC interacting with a cPAC LOW at 180 degree Long 40 N Lat. On April 3rd thru 4th i see several wispy upper level clouds reacting to Jet Streak activities as to what could be the same Jet Streak north of what was Maysak but in missing a few hours of imagery the connection is not factual so no solid proof.
137. txjac
Quoting 135. PedleyCA:


Shouldn't be long now....


Sitting on pins and needles Ped? Know how you feel though. Been many summers here in Houston that I was praying for rain ...actually I think that the whole state did once upon a time?
Quoting 135. PedleyCA:


Shouldn't be long now....

Good luck! Only got a few hundredths here. Looks like you might get a better deal.
Quoting 123. beell:



Gee, where's the boundary, bf?
Take two aspirin and call me in the morning.
:)
It is a good thing Yellowstone isn't about to go super-volcano on us... I can see that being very very bad.
141. OCF
Dr. Masters said that VEI 8 volcanic eruptions occur "only about once every 10,000 years." That's a little imprecise and maybe not exactly what he meant to say, since it seems likely that eruptions of that size occur less often than that. There are two generally recognized VEI 8 events in the last 100,000 years: Toba at about 73,000 years ago, and Taupo in New Zealand about 26,000 years ago. (But Toba was bigger than Taupo by a ratio of 3 or 4). The big eruption of the Campi Flegrei near Naples (the Campanian Ignimbrite) is dated to about 37,000 years ago and certainly made a mess of Europe (there's speculation about the extinction of Neanderthals) but is usually listed as VEI 7 (but it might have been bigger). The further you go back, the less certain the sampling is; we could easily be missing big eruptions.

If you want to speculate on where in the world the next big climate-altering eruption will happen, "somewhere in Indonesia" is a good all-purpose guess.

The climate effect isn't strictly a function of the size of the eruption. How much sulfur dioxide varies widely from volcano to volcano, and it's mostly the sulfur that matters. How high the plume emplaces that in the atmosphere matters - higher spreads further and lasts longer. Tropical volcanoes are more effective at altering climate than high-latitude, so the 1912 Novarupta (Katmai) eruption didn't have anything like the climate kick of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. Icelandic volcanoes are high latitude and don't typically raise their gases very high, so they're not that effective at changing global climate - but they can cause local trouble in Europe.

---

Where I am, the Southern California rain event is a complete bust so far.
142. 882MB
TORNADO WARNING
KSC133-205-080230-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0005.150408T0202Z-150408T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
902 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 902 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTOONA...OR NEAR NEODESHA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THAYER...ALTOONA...GALESBURG...EARLTON AND LAKE PARSONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 9566 3745 9567 3753 9568 3762 9561
3763 9532 3741 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 271DEG 14KT 3749 9560

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

DARMOFAL

143. vis0
Quoting 102. sar2401:

It's a good story if nothing else. They really have problems if they're dropping 230 kv lines.
(reports was that the electrical line "fell"(shaking fist in air while yelling::)...daaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmn you GRAVITY! (...though fist should be pointed toward the ground]
Quoting 143. vis0:

(reports was that the electrical line "fell"(shaking fist in air while yelling::)...daaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmn you GRAVITY! (...though fist should be pointed toward the ground]


ROR.... Funny....
"Confirmed tornado 5 mi NE of Neodesha KS" per Reed Timmer on Twitter.
146. 882MB
Quoting 145. Barefootontherocks:

"Confirmed tornado 5 mi NE of Neodesha KS" per Reed Timmer on Twitter.


Definite rotation with that cell.

Quoting 146. 882MB:



Definite rotation with that cell.





Dang, those storms fired pretty fast.
SPC storm report says "brief," but they'll keep an eye on that cell. Possible they'll have to warn it again as its travels are not done.
149. vis0
apology for typos typing in the dark - using city lights)my light went out and this too important to go for a bulb)
CREDIT::NOAA
SUBJECT:: Opportunity for Serious weather in the mix.
image host
That tri-streaks barbamz pointed out and other think it was a military maladjustment of radar beams TO ME had some real Jet Streaks embedded. See the last frame in the anigif has SVR in red in upper left corner of frame. Look at where the white rapidly changes into purple thats where the streak is at the moment exiting Colorado/New Mexico and if strong is already kicking in if these streaks force the front to tilt lets see if the outcome heads towards the ground level. :-(
Quoting Astrometeor:
Interesting Severe T-storm watch just came out, look at what I put in bold:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...

DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITH
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE QUICKLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...NAMELY WITHIN THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORM INITIATION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...MEAD
Not a moment too soon either, considering the thunderstorms were already in progress. This is exactly how I expect storms to initiate tomorrow as well. Nothing one hour and severe storms the next.
Quoting 148. Barefootontherocks:

SPC storm report says "brief," but they'll keep an eye on that cell. Possible they'll have to warn it again as its travels are not done.



With the good instability and moderate shear, there be one or two more before it's done.
Good blog today, thanks Jeff! I notice one of the cited papers is up on ResearchGate:
"The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth(full pdf)"
Thanks to Clive Oppenheimer for sharing science!
P.S. from the paper:
Quoting vis0:
apology for typos typing in the dark - using city lights)my light went out and this too important to go for a bulb)
CREDIT::NOAA
SUBJECT:: Opportunity for Serious weather in the mix.
image host
That tri-streaks barbamz pointed out and other think it was a military maladjustment of radar beams TO ME had some real Jet Streaks embedded. See the last frame in the anigif has SVR in red in upper left corner of frame. Look at where the white rapidly changes into purple thats where the streak is at the moment exiting Colorado/New Mexico and if strong is already kicking in if these streaks force the front to tilt lets see if the outcome heads towards the ground level. :-(
Except you're looking at satellite photos and that was radar. They don't see the same things, as I'm sure you know. Radar is not going to see jet streaks but it will see disturbances in the electromagnetic field. Like I wrote, I'm only guessing, but those didn't look meteorological to me.
Quoting guygee:
Good blog today, thanks Jeff! I notice one of the cited papers is up on ResearchGate:
"The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth(full pdf)"
It is, assuming I want to give yet another site my data by joining up. I don't believe that's what the authors of that paper meant by open access.
Quoting txjac:


I 100% agree with you. Went from very comfortable 60's to 80's like overnight!
Happened way to quickly. Would have preferred a more gradual warm up
The high here was 92 after an overnight low of 67. It's still 73 with a dewpoint of 68. It's so humid I could practically swim to the backyard. Not a cloud in sight though.
.
Quoting 151. TimTheWxMan:




With the good instability and moderate shear, there be one or two more before it's done.

Here's the discussion from thunderstorm watch:

DISCUSSION... RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE QUICKLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE... NAMELY WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORM INITIATION.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Tokyo metropolitan area convection study for extreme weather resilient cities (TOMACS)

* Increasing the value of uncertain weather and river forecasts for emergency managers

NCAR's Summer Colloquium: Capacity building in Cross-disciplinary Research of Earth System Carbon-climate Connections

*** Discovery May Help Stop the Sun From Putting Out Lights on Earth

Scientists Swarm Around the Twitter Hashtag #IAmAScientistBecause If you are a scientist, tell us why! :)

Cave crustaceans 'losing visual brain'

* Bendy battery promises safe, speedy charging

Climate poses new threat to survival of Arabian oryx



Archaeologists Uncover Ancient 'Spooning' Couple in Greece



!!! New study hints at spontaneous appearance of primordial DNA



* Anesthetic gases raise Earth's temperature (a little) while you sleep

Einstein Ring seen in stunning image of lensed galaxy



* New Report Identifies Possible Next Steps in U.S. Energy Development

*** Climate change, plant roots may accelerate carbon loss from soils

Study of vehicle emissons will aid urban sustainability efforts


Sanctions, higher costs considered under California drought plan

* Plummeting sardine numbers could prompt U.S. West coast fishing ban

* 'Everyday disasters' driving flight from Sundarbans


Scientists restore the good name of Brontosaurus

White House to explore how climate change makes you sick


In Parched California, Innovation, Like Water, Has Limits

Has Obama been a 'green' President? (video)
Quoting beell:



Maybe it's like clouds or somethin'


Any idea what the cause of those clouds..or somethin' might be? They look like they're pretty fast moving clouds.
Quoting 154. sar2401:

It is, assuming I want to give yet another site my data by joining up. I don't believe that's what the authors of that paper meant by open access.
I agree that is annoying, but it is a relatively small price. They do send an occasional email, though, but traffic is light.
160. OCF
Quoting OCF:
Where I am, the Southern California rain event is a complete bust so far.

OK, so I think I typed the magic words. Minutes after I said that, a decent shower started. Doesn't look like much on radar, but we should have gotten something in the .1-.2 inch range by now.
Well I finally felt motivated to dig up some dual-pol product on those streaks. Correlation Coefficients are way waaaay down there, indicating a polarized return echo consistent with radar chaff.

Quoting 138. LowerCal:


Good luck! Only got a few hundredths here. Looks like you might get a better deal.


Just started here, very light, hope we get more than our last 3 day(.08) total 3/1-3/3....
Quoting 158. sar2401:

Any idea what the cause of those clouds..or somethin' might be? They look like they're pretty fast moving clouds.


Jet Stream
I think it is lucky that the Tambora eruption did not happen a couple years earlier. If we had had a 'year without a summer' during the war of 1812 I think we would have had a severe famine and a lot more troops dying during the colder than average winters.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Jet Stream
Could be. It looks like the southern stream is headed in off the Pacific and headed in the same direction as those clouds. So what caused just those clouds to form in a much larger jet stream?
Quoting 154. sar2401:

It is, assuming I want to give yet another site my data by joining up. I don't believe that's what the authors of that paper meant by open access.


Don't worry Sar, chances are they all ready have your data. :) Anywho, I didn't have to sign up for anything there for full access.
Quoting 154. sar2401:

It is, assuming I want to give yet another site my data by joining up. I don't believe that's what the authors of that paper meant by open access.
P.S. I have a pdf plugin with firefox, and the link I provided allows for full access and downloading of the paper without membership. Generally, though, you need to join and log in ...
Quoting 165. sar2401:

Could be. It looks like the southern stream is headed in off the Pacific and headed in the same direction as those clouds. So what caused just those clouds to form in a much larger jet stream?
Nah, if you check the correlation coefficient image I posted in 161, you'll see that the correlation coefficient of the echo return from those streaks is below 0.5. Only chaff/ground clutter has such a low CC. Rain or cloud would be fully red, over 0.9, even hail or snow would be around 0.8.

It's definitely chaff.
169. vis0
IF YOU ARE IN / NEAR WATCH / WARNING AREAS DO NOT USE THIS LISTEN TO NOAA AND OFFICIAL ADVISORIES

CREDIT::NOAA BUT WHAT YOU SEE IS NOT THEIR PRODUCT its a funktopGAL .6 product
SUBJECT:: Opportunity for Serious weather in the mix.
emailed (via personnel yahoo eMail by 1990s fan) to post this.
image host
Its a blend of Lift & precip higher opportunity for energy transference be it precip , winds (tornado or down drafts), lightning, temperature changes etc are where the highest difference within each HUE. The famine hues have more potential but even a sudden change within gray/white has potential to create an aforementioned energy transference via a weather output.

IF YOU ARE IN / NEAR WATCH / WARNING AREAS DO NOT USE THIS LISTEN TO NOAA AND OFFICIAL ADVISORIES
170. vis0
image host
Quoting 169. vis0:

IF YOU ARE IN / NEAR WATCH / WARNING AREAS DO NOT USE THIS LISTEN TO NOAA AND OFFICIAL ADVISORIES

CREDIT::NOAA BUT WHAT YOU SEE IS NOT THEIR PRODUCT its a funktopGAL .6 product
SUBJECT:: Opportunity for Serious weather in the mix.
emailed (via personnel yahoo eMail by 1990s fan) to post this.
image host
Its a blend of Lift & precip higher opportunity for energy transference be it precip , winds (tornado or down drafts), lightning, temperature changes etc are where the highest difference within each HUE. The famine hues have more potential but even a sudden change within gray/white has potential to create an aforementioned energy transference via a weather output.

IF YOU ARE IN / NEAR WATCH / WARNING AREAS DO NOT USE THIS LISTEN TO NOAA AND OFFICIAL ADVISORIES





For a second i thought you were telling people not to listen to noaa and official advisories. Good thing that's not the case;
Tornado on the ground near Montgomery Kansas. Storm spotted.
That cell down by Parsons, KS has been sitting in right about the same place for over an hour now. Resilient little thing.

Well, it started raining again but there isn't much storm left before it rolls off to the East,
they said it would pass by 21:00 and they were almost spot on, results will probably be puny.
175. 882MB
TORNADO WARNING
KSC099-125-080445-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0008.150408T0414Z-150408T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1113 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PARSONS TRI-CITY AIRPORT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARSONS...CHERRYVALE...ALTAMONT...MOUND VALLEY...PARSONS TRI CITY
AIRPORT...BIG HILL LAKE AND DENNIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 9559 3738 9559 3738 9547 3735 9528
3719 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 290DEG 16KT 3732 9552

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

DARMOFAL

176. 882MB
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

I think it is lucky that the Tambora eruption did not happen a couple years earlier. If we had had a 'year without a summer' during the war of 1812 I think we would have had a severe famine and a lot more troops dying during the colder than average winters.


Thankfully it did not happen!
is the severe event still gonna be bad? Haven't heard that much about it today.
I think this was our first cold storm of the rain year that affected all of California. There was a small cold snow/rain storm in Socal at the end of december/beginning of january, but other than that, all the storms have been either at average or above average temperatures.
Quoting 177. nwobilderburg:

is the severe event still gonna be bad? Haven't heard that much about it today.

Not too much change--today (Wednesday) continues to be a quality over quantity day. Isolated supercells across central Kansas/Oklahoma, but the ones that do form have the potential to produce long-tracked, strong tornadoes. Thursday is looking a little more interesting across eastern Iowa/northern Illinois, with more directional shear than previous forecasts indicated.
180. vis0

Quoting 153. sar2401:

Except you're looking at satellite photos and that was radar. They don't see the same things, as I'm sure you know. Radar is not going to see jet streaks but it will see disturbances in the electromagnetic field. Like I wrote, I'm only guessing, but those didn't look meteorological to me.
but at times the "contents" of one show up in the other. 

As in moisture filled clouds, in where the high level clouds picked up by the Jet Streak before those clouds interact with fronts/LOWs expanded with moisture to then show up in the electromagnetic field can be linked visually.

BTW sar2401 here an idea, get as many sponges as you can tie them to a tree in your yard (do this with 2 friends dressed in white next to you so neighbors know yer nuts and don't ask questions) tie the several sponges to the tree limbs. Now when you wake up in the AM and it feels muggy but ya have only  half  a puddle accumulated (how ever that's measured) go squeeze out 2 more puddles from the 50 or so sponges.  JUST JOKING!!!. Let me gaze into my creestal ball  i see much rainfall in your future...no no wait my mistake thats the three stooges fixing yer electrical lines and water raining from yer light sockets.

honest more rain for you in the next 40 days from 20 to 33% more than the last 40 days.
181. 882MB
Quoting 177. nwobilderburg:

is the severe event still gonna be bad? Haven't heard that much about it today.


From what I heard and read, we had a confirmed tornado tonight, now its up to NWS to see if it did touch down. I'm not liking this because the main event supposed to be today/tonight, when all the main ingredients will come together, precursor of what's to come. I just hope everyone in the highest threat area is prepared. God bless and make sure you all have your NOAA radio stations on, whoever is in the threat area.
An update to the national tornado count before today and tomorrow:

Drought and tornadoes, poor California!
SPC Day 1:



...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND
LOW-LEVEL LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z WED RAOBS INDICATE AN EML
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY ADVECTED ABOVE MUCH OF THIS
REGION...AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BOOST
MLCAPE TO 2500-3500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM ERN KS
INTO MO...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIATE STORMS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NRN TX INTO OK...BUT THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BE
MID-LEVEL CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP AND DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SRN-STREAM JET STREAK.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SFC-BASED STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE
DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NCNTRL OK OR SCNTRL KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
SW FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN TX WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING
ALONG THE DRYLINE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN TO
40-50 KT WITH APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. THREAT FOR
TORNADOES /A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/ WILL ALSO INCREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING LEE LOW.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES ONCE MORE CONFIDENCE IS GAINED
REGARDING STORM COVERAGE/EVOLUTION.
I still say the new severe weather probabilities are badly named. To me enhanced sounds more dangerous than moderate.
Quoting 186. BaltimoreBrian:

I still say the new severe weather probabilities are badly named. To me enhanced sounds more dangerous than moderate.


Agree.
Quoting 186. BaltimoreBrian:

I still say the new severe weather probabilities are badly named. To me enhanced sounds more dangerous than moderate.

moderate doesn't sound as bad as it should, considering its the second highest risk level.
189. vis0
Quoting 188. nwobilderburg:


moderate doesn't sound as bad as it should, considering its the second highest risk level.
change moderate to intolerable????????
190. vis0
image host

CA. fast Jet streak towards Kansas(this streak from 180W 40N to Ca. coast less than 20 hrs. and seemed to "intertwine" around other Jet Streak. In aviation.gov imagery.
Ha ha I love it. Great blog. Still managed to stick a 'global warming' dug in there regardless of a Mac daddy volcano cooling things down. Brilliant !
Taiwan rations water amid drought
BBC News, 2 hours ago
Taiwan has begun rationing water supplies to more than one million households as it tackles the island's worst drought in years.
Water supplies will be cut off entirely for two days each week, on a rotating basis, in several northern cities.
The shortage is due to reduced rainfall, leaving water levels in reservoirs far below capacity.
But a leaky delivery system, silt build-up in reservoirs and wastage are also being blamed.
Late last month, the government said the dry spell was forecast to continue.
"The water supply situation is urgent as Taiwan had the lowest rainfall last autumn and winter since 1947," the economics affairs ministry said.
"We may have delayed or no monsoon rains at all... We urge the public to co-operate during this difficult time." ...

Whole article see link above.

A closer look at the deadly storms which hit Bangladesh some days ago and at the end of the video an interesting outlook to an unusual behaviour of the jet stream over India in the days to come:

Bangladesh lashed by storms
BBC weather video, 7 April 2015 Last updated at 17:33
Many are feared dead and scores of others injured after thunderstorms devastated parts of Bangladesh. The storms uprooted trees and damaged hundreds of homes.
Chris Fawkes reports.
would you rather live in the tornado belt or in harms way south florida?. itll take kansas. because when the big one does come s. fl. aint going to be pretty
195. MahFL
Quoting 194. islander101010:

would you rather live in the tornado belt or in harms way south florida?. itll take kansas. because when the big one does come s. fl. aint going to be pretty


With hurricanes you get a few days warning to get out, with most tornadoes you have very little warning.
HRRR for later today
Quoting MahFL:


With hurricanes you get a few days warning to get out, with most tornadoes you have very little warning.


From someone that lived in central Oklahoma (graduated from Moore High School) and now lives in Florida , you don't want anything to do with a high end tornado.
As you mentioned, tornadoes (especially a high end tornadoes (EF4- EF5) are off the chart dangerous. They have the ability to completely level your house down to the slab with no warning in the middle of the night.

Hard to imagine the wind force to wrap a truck around a tree. From the EF5 Moore Tornado (300 mph doppler measure wind)


These were nice middle class homes. Moore, Oklahoma.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
HRRR for later today

Moar storms fer me! YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...THE SRN HALF OF TX EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
ONGOING CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE SAGGING COLD FRONT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDINESS CASTING
UNCERTAINTY UPON DEGREE OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT. PRESUMING AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST...WITH STORM ORGANIZATION
TO BE AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL SELYS PROGGED ACROSS THIS AREA BENEATH
MODERATE WSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. AS SUCH...RISK FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO -- WARRANTS
INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 04/08/2015
couple hundred yrd wide path of destruction vrs. andrews 20 mile just wait you might change you mind.


SST anomalies have trended more toward the cool side in the MDR recently.
Quoting 195. MahFL:



With hurricanes you get a few days warning to get out, with most tornadoes you have very little warning.


Exactly. I do hurricanes, not tornadoes and earthquakes. After being through Andrew as a kid and Wilma as an adult, I will never ride out a Cat 3 or higher again, but with hurricanes, I get to opportunity to leave.
Quoting islander101010:
couple hundred yrd wide path of destruction vrs. andrews 20 mile just wait you might change you mind.


Andrew's destruction wasn't anywhere close to EF5 damage.
Yes, Andrew was incredible with wind gusts approaching 170 mph.
Jumping up to 315 mph winds instantly changing direction along with strong updraft winds is a completely different animal.

And again, with a hurricane you have the choice to leave the area and you have plenty of warning time to prepare and get to a save place.
Boy, it has been a long time since I have been on. Maybe I want to discuss storms, maybe I felt a need to air the grievances of the Badger loss Monday night. At any rate, it is nice to be back on.

However, I am now ready for some storms! We are just outside of the enhanced risk area tomorrow. Today looks pretty good for storms as well.

Quoting 203. Sfloridacat5:



Andrew's destruction wasn't anywhere close to EF5 damage.
Yes, Andrew was incredible with wind gusts approaching 170 mph.
Jumping up to 315 mph winds instantly changing direction along with strong updraft winds is a completely different animal.
yes I too would rather go thru a hurricane than an EF5 tornado...with a hurricane you have a chance of surviving a hit..with an EF5 tornado..its over period. right down to the slab..poof..whole house gone.
ESPI is hovering around 0.90 and the SOI seems to be in another free fall. This means there is another WWB coming so any cooling across the ENSO regions will be brief.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 08 Apr 2015
Average for last 30 days -9.9
Average for last 90 days -6.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -31.1
Jim Lushine, a retired weather service meteorologist, and tornado expert.

"Hurricane winds change direction relatively slowly and usually over several hours. Tornado winds, on the other hand, change direction
rapidly, on the order of a few seconds. For that

reason, a tornado puts more stress on a structure than a hurricane with the same wind speed.

“Tornado winds not only spin horizontally but also lift vertically, while hurricane winds usually do not,” Lushine said. “This uplift in a tornado puts tremendous stress on buildings, especially on roofs, and also throws debris great distances, which can damage other houses."
Quoting LargoFl:
yes I too would rather go thru a hurricane than an EF5 tornado...with a hurricane you have a chance of surviving a hit..with an EF5 tornado..its over period. right down to the slab..poof..whole house gone.


Yeah, not to down play very strong hurricanes (Andrew, Charley, Katrina, etc), but their wind damage potential isn't anywhere close to that of a high end tornado.

Now if you want to talk about storm surge, that's a whole different ball game. But anyone that stays along the coast and is affected by the storm surge choose to stay there. They should have left the area.
Quoting 207. Sfloridacat5:

Jim Lushine, a retired weather service meteorologist, and tornado expert.

"Hurricane winds change direction relatively slowly and usually over several hours. Tornado winds, on the other hand, change direction
rapidly, on the order of a few seconds. For that

reason, a tornado puts more stress on a structure than a hurricane with the same wind speed.

“Tornado winds not only spin horizontally but also lift vertically, while hurricane winds usually do not,” Lushine said. “This uplift in a tornado puts tremendous stress on buildings, especially on roofs, and also throws debris great distances, which can damage other houses."


Hurricane Charley was like a big Tornado rolling up I-4 back in 2004. My walls of my condo were literally pulsing in and out because the winds were so intense. Over at UCF trees were snapped down at the base just about everywhere and whole brick structures where compromised from the power of the winds. At the time Orlando was known as tarp city as flying into Orlando all you saw were blue tarps on most of the houses in the area. Never seen anything like it ever.
I remember the eye of Hurricane Charley as it passed over the sky being a orange-ish color. Many people I went to school with and friends alike all said the samething the sky looked orange. It was a strange site for sure then the backside kicked and then all hail broke loose for another hour or so before Charley passed. He was a fast mover!
Quoting 202. Naga5000:



Exactly. I do hurricanes, not tornadoes and earthquakes. After being through Andrew as a kid and Wilma as an adult, I will never ride out a Cat 3 or higher again, but with hurricanes, I get to opportunity to leave.
Exactly.During the remnants of Ivan Tornado warnings were dropping like bombs and so were the tornados.People had little warning time to take action.Same with the 2001 College Park MD tornado.That's why I could careless if Tornado season isn't active.The D.C tornado shield will eventually let up one day..
Good Morning everyone! How about them El-Niño's last night? They sure took it the La-Niña's it wasn't even close. The Final Score was 100-50. I tell you those El-Niño's are shaping up to be a super team this season. They might even win the championship this year.
I would rather be in the path of a hurricane than in the path of a violent tornado, however I would rather live in Kansas than on the coast of Louisiana. Of course, the worst I think would be to be stuck in -10 degree cold in a blizzard without much clothing for heat after your car broke down, so I guess the blizzard wins.
Anyway, how much tornadoes will Michigan get tomorrow? I live in Traverse City and am hoping for a big storm. My sister looks like she might get one in Wyoming.
Thanks Dr. Masters
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hurricane Charley was like a big Tornado rolling up I-4 back in 2004. My walls of my condo were literally pulsing in and out because the winds were so intense. Over at UCF trees were snapped down at the base just about everywhere and whole brick structures where compromised from the power of the winds. At the time Orlando was known as tarp city as flying into Orlando all you saw were blue tarps on most of the houses in the area. Never seen anything like it ever.


Charley blew the roof off our business in the Cape. It was very intense for a short period of time.
I went to Port Charlotte right after the hurricane and saw the damage first hand. The eye left a damage path very similar to an EF1-EF2 tornado.
NWS survey team also rated the most intense damage from Charley in the Port Charlotte area comparable to an EF2 tornado.
look at the figure twc gives. torcom 5 means 50% chance a tornado comes within 50 miles of you. so figure 300 yards path of destruction for 50 miles. your chances are really good it wont affect you at all. lucky to see it. a cat 4 coming ashore near Miami. 50 mile wide maybe bigger path right through one of the most populous areas in the US and not all the folks are friendly. i'd rather be living in Kansas.
The RAP MODEL this morning shows a TORCON 10 for Central Illinois for late in the evening into the NITE. UGLY TIMES coming for many possibly!
Quoting 217. TampaSpin:

The RAP MODEL this morning shows a TORCON 10 for Central Illinois for late in the evening into the NITE. UGLY TIMES coming for many possibly!


Long time no see buddy! Good to see you back in the saddle.
image removed

well it warrant the renewal of my tap account ready for the severe events over the next 48 hrs or so
test image 2


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 31
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 640 AM
UNTIL 100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
Maybe some beneficial rain this weekend for interior of FL. Looking like a slow transition to the wet season might be starting. Hard to tell though as some models show a strong front moving in around day 13 . Well see as it appears the SE ridge may hold strong thru the end of April slowly but surely getting us into our daily thunderstorm regime.

Quoting islander101010:
look at the figure twc gives. torcom 5 means 50% chance a tornado comes within 50 miles of you. so figure 300 yards path of destruction for 50 miles. your chances are really good it wont affect you at all. lucky to see it. a cat 4 coming ashore near Miami. 50 mile wide maybe bigger path right through one of the most populous areas in the US and not all the folks are friendly. i'd rather be living in Kansas.


Just make sure you have a tornado shelter and sleep in it when there's a chance of severe weather.
Read about the Geensburg, Kansas tornado. The tornado was wider than the town and destroyed over 95% of the city. It also struck at night.
Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
The RAP MODEL this morning shows a TORCON 10 for Central Illinois for late in the evening into the NITE. UGLY TIMES coming for many possibly!


And I'm at a 3 or 4.
The map's not looking happy right now...


Excellent blog post, Dr. Masters. Great links and references as well.

Thanks, guygee, for providing the link to the PDF of Mason, et al. After reading through it, I'm in agreement with OCF (post #141) regarding the frequency of M8 eruptions. The wiki page states greater than or equal to 10,000 years, but does not give a source for their information.

From Mason, et al, this gives a better idea of the likelihood of M8 (or larger) eruptions (and shows the 0.014 % in the next 100 years Dr. Masters referenced in his blog post):

Quoting 201. tampabaymatt:



SST anomalies have trended more toward the cool side in the MDR recently.

I noticed that too. Currently, if you visit tropicaltidbits website, you can see that the MDR sst is right around average, and have risen in the last few days. The positive sst's in the subtropics is slowly moving east trying to warm up MDR. MDR and the rest of the Atlantic seem a little bit more conducive to tropical development than the past few weeks. MDR has plenty of time to warm up, with the cool pool slowly diminishing, and the AMO slowly trying to recover from the slightly negative territory it's currently in. As long as MDR stays cool, hurricane forecasts will remain on the lower bandwagon for below average activity.

Sincerely,My Analysis,lol.
Quoting 217. TampaSpin:

The RAP MODEL this morning shows a TORCON 10 for Central Illinois for late in the evening into the NITE. UGLY TIMES coming for many possibly!



Hmm, that's very interesting. The focus has been heavy on Norman to Wichita to KC areas among I-35, but maybe we should be looking at NE Missouri/W Illinois tonight?
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Hmm, that's very interesting. The focus has been heavy on Norman to Wichita to KC areas among I-35, but maybe we should be looking at NE Missouri/W Illinois tonight?


Sounds right to me.
Can you spot the abnormality?





Just in case you can't, here it is: There is a 30%, non-hatched risk of hail going all the way to Indiana, but the Enhanced risk only goes to St. Louis.

Why is this?
A nice look at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge:



Based on the work of geophysicists Bruce Heezen and Marie Tharp, this 1968 map of the ocean floor helped bring the concept of plate tectonics to a wide audience. Tharp began plotting the depths in 1950 from soundings taken by ships in the Atlantic, but, as a woman, wasn't allowed on the ships herself. In 1978 she was awarded the Society's Hubbard Medal for her pioneering research.

100 years of National Geographic Maps
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
A nice look at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge:



Based on the work of geophysicists Bruce Heezen and Marie Tharp, this 1968 map of the ocean floor helped bring the concept of plate tectonics to a wide audience. Tharp began plotting the depths in 1950 from soundings taken by ships in the Atlantic, but, as a woman, wasn't allowed on the ships herself. In 1978 she was awarded the Society's Hubbard Medal for her pioneering research.

100 years of National Geographic Maps


OK that looks pretty cool, but we are talking about severe weather right now, not mid Atlantic ridges.
Quoting hydrus:


Wow..can't wait for severe tstms!
I wrote an Arctic Sea Ice Update blog entry.

NPEO started trying to get their sea ice buoys with cameras in place for the year to watch the big melt. The right side landing gear of the plane that researchers were on failed landing in Borneo. There was no serious injuries but it has delayed them a few days.
Waiting for a more recent update.

Here's the area Reed Timmer (Dominator) said he's targeting today.

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN · 9h 9 hours ago
Targeting Pratt, KS down to Alva, OK late afternoon dryline supercells with #tornadoes, very large hail likely. Stay tuned..
scott should be on the "glory walk" until the end of june then el nino will take a plunge by the end of august la nina will be surging. i slept on a water bed last night.

scott should be on the "glory walk" until the end of june then el nino will take a plunge by the end of august la nina will be surging. i slept on a water bed last night.

i thought your post was a whack job bag of huey.....until i read the last line " i slept on a water bed last night"....with that caveat i fully believe you are vetted to make such a comment and it be believable
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12

ECMWF is turning the El Nino up to 11 for the summer-- similar to latest CFSv2. Fool me twice, shame on me?
Quoting 194. islander101010:

would you rather live in the tornado belt or in harms way south florida?. itll take kansas. because when the big one does come s. fl. aint going to be pretty


Given the choice of A or B .....

I'll take C

DC metro area is relatively gentle for weather risk compared with many other parts of the country.

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 16h 16 hours ago

Florida has not been impacted by a hurricane in nine years, since Wilma in 2005, shattering the old record of five years set from 1980-1984.
Edged that enhanced for today a little closer to me, not surprised. Just soupy outside, just enough breaks in the clouds to allow some heating, definitely has that potential feel to it this a.m. in S C IL. Station to the N slightly cooled from that batch than ran N of Spfld this morning. They have 63 w/ a 60 dew pt. One to my SW is 68 w/ 68 dew pt. Both around 29.9" w/ light Southerly winds. Tomorrow smack dab in middle of enhanced, though StL TV station's future cast radar showed heavier over us tonight w/ worst S of 64 Thurs. We'll see, should be interesting.

Thanks for the info Brian!
Moore EF5 tornado occurred on 10% hatched torando day similar to today, so don't be too surprised if we end up getting a long-track violent tornado tonight. All it takes is a favorable CAPE, shear profile, and helicity in a certain area (which I think will be I-35 between Wichita to Missouri/Iowa border).

SPC outlook from May 20th, 2013:



'blogquote'>Quoting 230. 62901IL:

Can you spot the abnormality?





Just in case you can't, here it is: There is a 30%, non-hatched risk of hail going all the way to Indiana, but the Enhanced risk only goes to St. Louis.

Why is this?
Quoting 230. 62901IL:

Can you spot the abnormality?





Just in case you can't, here it is: There is a 30%, non-hatched risk of hail going all the way to Indiana, but the Enhanced risk only goes to St. Louis.

Why is this?


Hmm, that is strange. That area should be under enhanced according to this table.

Wise words from Norman's Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Sat pic looks like a summer pattern...until the front sweeps through late week..



Boeing out over Cincinnati now:



It will be interesting to see how this line holds up as it approaches the Appalachians in terms of Orographic Lift. There wasa derecho I think in 2012 that went over the mountains and regenerated on the windward side and caused a lot of damage to the Washington DC area.

Quoting 242. dabirds:

Edged that enhanced for today a little closer to me, not surprised. Just soupy outside, just enough breaks in the clouds to allow some heating, definitely has that potential feel to it this a.m. in S C IL. Station to the N slightly cooled from that batch than ran N of Spfld this morning. They have 63 w/ a 60 dew pt. One to my SW is 68 w/ 68 dew pt. Both around 29.9" w/ light Southerly winds. Tomorrow smack dab in middle of enhanced, though StL TV station's future cast radar showed heavier over us tonight w/ worst S of 64 Thurs. We'll see, should be interesting.

Thanks for the info Brian!



You sound like you're just a county or two away from me. I'm near the eastern edge of the enhanced risk as well as the 10% hatched tornado area.
Quoting 245. hydrus:

Sat pic looks like a summer pattern...until the front sweeps through late week..


MCS
Quoting 234. 62901IL:



Wow..can't wait for severe tstms!



Same here! See the SPC outlooks or today and tomorrow?
Quoting vis0:

but at times the "contents" of one show up in the other. 

As in moisture filled clouds, in where the high level clouds picked up by the Jet Streak before those clouds interact with fronts/LOWs expanded with moisture to then show up in the electromagnetic field can be linked visually.

BTW sar2401 here an idea, get as many sponges as you can tie them to a tree in your yard (do this with 2 friends dressed in white next to you so neighbors know yer nuts and don't ask questions) tie the several sponges to the tree limbs. Now when you wake up in the AM and it feels muggy but ya have only  half  a puddle accumulated (how ever that's measured) go squeeze out 2 more puddles from the 50 or so sponges.  JUST JOKING!!!. Let me gaze into my creestal ball  i see much rainfall in your future...no no wait my mistake thats the three stooges fixing yer electrical lines and water raining from yer light sockets.

honest more rain for you in the next 40 days from 20 to 33% more than the last 40 days.
That was a good catch Vis. That radar picture Barb posted yesterday was definitely the beginnings of a jet streak that's now in Kansas. I guess there was enough lift as it moved over the higher terrain and drier air of the desert to wring out enough moisture to produce some clouds that were seen on radar.

I hope you're right about the rain but I've seen this pattern here before. An early, hot, and dry spring almost always leads to a lingering, hot, and dry summer. That jest streak showed part of the problem, as the southern stream is actually headed NE instead of east so we're seeing severe weather threats up in places like Illinois and Kentucky while I'm sitting here with clear skies and a temperature of 86 already. If you're not right you're going to have to go to U-Haul and rent a water truck so you can get down here and water my lawn. :-)
Quoting 248. GTstormChaserCaleb:

MCS
i knew that..:)...they have a tendency to hit us from the N.E...and do more damage than the ones from the N.W....because we usually do not get them from the N.E....which gives them the opportunity to break stuff they normally cant reach..:)
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 16h 16 hours ago

Florida has not been impacted by a hurricane in nine years, since Wilma in 2005, shattering the old record of five years set from 1980-1984.



Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:


Boeing out over Cincinnati now:



It will be interesting to see how this line holds up as it approaches the Appalachians in terms of Orographic Lift. There wasa derecho I think in 2012 that went over the mountains and regenerated on the windward side and caused a lot of damage to the Washington DC area.

This is the second time in two days the SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch when the thunderstorms were already ongoing and there were already warned storms. Anyway, pretty impressive line of storms for this time of the morning when it was only 60 degrees in Cincinnati. I don't think this line has enough support to become a derecho but it's in the right place to become one of it has more support than I think it it does.
Quoting 253. ricderr:

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 16h 16 hours ago

Florida has not been impacted by a hurricane in nine years, since Wilma in 2005, shattering the old record of five years set from 1980-1984.






We've had a nice break for the last 10 years for sure. Even though this might be a slow season all it takes is 1 to really cause a lot of havoc just like we saw in 1992. Quiet all season then end of August here comes Andrew which forever changed lives in S FL.
Quoting dabirds:
Edged that enhanced for today a little closer to me, not surprised. Just soupy outside, just enough breaks in the clouds to allow some heating, definitely has that potential feel to it this a.m. in S C IL. Station to the N slightly cooled from that batch than ran N of Spfld this morning. They have 63 w/ a 60 dew pt. One to my SW is 68 w/ 68 dew pt. Both around 29.9" w/ light Southerly winds. Tomorrow smack dab in middle of enhanced, though StL TV station's future cast radar showed heavier over us tonight w/ worst S of 64 Thurs. We'll see, should be interesting.

Thanks for the info Brian!
I've been saying for several days I thought south central Illinois was going to be in the bullseye and now it looks like it might be after dark. These storms are developing quickly in Ohio and they don't have anywhere near the CAPE and shear you're going to get later today. They are also developing in air that's only in the high 50's and low 60's so this is not going to be a situation where you're in the 80's before the storms hit. Even the barometric pressure is still pretty high. I'm sure there will also be storms further west and south but keep an eye out there. These after dark storms are killers.
Complicated day.

SPC surface analysis (old school) for today.
Quoting hydrus:
Sat pic looks like a summer pattern...until the front sweeps through late week..

Except it's pretty unusual in the summer to see storms in places like Ohio while Alabama has nothing. We don't even have a cumulus field even though it's hot and humid, which does feel like summer. This is actually pretty weird.
HRRR is showing some isolated supercells later this afternoon. Usually need to see that isolation for strong tornado development.


Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Complicated day.

SPC surface analysis (old school) for today.
Did Greg Carbin actually draw that for today? Pretty neat. Those red arrows sure show the areas where things will happen today. Alabama is conspicuous by its absence.
I guess Bob Cats have discovered that shark meat is delicious.

Who knew that large wild cats were expert shark fishermen?

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission posted a picture to its Facebook page: It's an image of a bobcat coming out of the water at Sebastian Inlet State Park in Florida, casually dragging its catch of the day behind it: a shark that doesn't look a whole lot smaller than the bobcat!

The FWC says photographer John Bailey was strolling along the beach when he spotted the wildcat just sitting and staring into the water, and then leapt in and grabbed the Atlantic Sharpnose shark - and pulled it to shore.


Source AOL
NE Montgomery County Tim, though not in the NE panhandle, just to the W of it. Looking like home opener may be iffy too, w/ more T-storms in Sun. - Tues. forecast.

Weather station to SW has already jumped to 71, dew pt still 68. To the N only 65, dew pt 61, temps starting to outrun dew pts. Pretty bright out though overcast, but look to mainly be upper level clouds at this point.
German Spiegel today covers the story of the warm "blob" off the US westcoast which was published in Science, 3 April 2015 (paywall protected): "The Blob’ invades Pacific, flummoxing climate experts".

I guess I'm late to the party as I haven't noticed yet that the RRR (ridiculous resilient ridge) got company by "the blob". I hope the NOAA guys payed some fees to our Grothar for the rights :-)

Oregon Coast Scientist Gives Talk on Alarming Ocean Temperatures and the 'Blob'
Published 04/05/2015
(Manzanita, Oregon) – Monthly meetings in the north Oregon coast town of Manzanita always spotlight a fascinating presentation, and this month's Speaker Series of the Lower Nehalem Watershed Council brings a NOAA scientist on April 9. Dr. Bill Peterson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Senior Scientist, explores some engaging new territory in ocean science. He even examines something in the ocean that researchers have termed “the blob.” ...
In late September 2014, this warm water mass, referred to as “the blob,” moved onshore, flooding the continental shelf with waters that were + 2°C about normal. Scientists were alarmed to discover that shelf waters off Newport, Oregon had higher temperatures and salinity and zooplankton characteristics than ever before. This “Blob” does not follow warmer water events like El Nino, according to Dr. Peterson's findings. ...


How warmer waters will affect our swimming creatures
Thursday 26, March 2015, by Martha Baskin One Comment
Salmon are one of the species most threatened by rises in water temperature, both at sea and in their spawning streams. Credit: Flickr user hey_skinny
Scientists nicknamed it “the blob” last summer. Since then the mass of water penetrating the North Pacific has become persistent in waters from Alaska to Baja, showing up as red and orange when scientists map it. A new report by NOAA Fisheries’ Northwest Fisheries Science Center and Southwest Fisheries Science Center notes record-high sea surface temperatures characterized by as much as 5.4 degrees F higher than average.
“We are seeing unprecedented changes in the environment,” says Toby Garfield, director of the Environmental Research Division at the Southwest center.
Climate and ecological indicators point to reverberations throughout the marine food web. ...


-----------------------------

News are in German media today (not available in English yet) that two humpback whales were seen in the Baltic Sea, a mother with her child - probably the same animals as were spotted in the Baltic Sea last summer. This is quite rare in itself, but it's more extraordinary that those whales obviously spent the whole winter in the Baltic Sea which usually wouldn't provide a nice hibernation place for whales because of sea ice - which was lacking this winter to a great amount, though.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Moore EF5 tornado occurred on 10% hatched torando day similar to today, so don't be too surprised if we end up getting a long-track violent tornado tonight. All it takes is a favorable CAPE, shear profile, and helicity in a certain area (which I think will be I-35 between Wichita to Missouri/Iowa border).

SPC outlook from May 20th, 2013:



'blogquote'>Quoting 230. 62901IL:

Can you spot the abnormality?





Just in case you can't, here it is: There is a 30%, non-hatched risk of hail going all the way to Indiana, but the Enhanced risk only goes to St. Louis.

Why is this?


Hmm, that is strange. That area should be under enhanced according to this table.

I'm sorry, but any scale that requires a table is just too complicated. I don't know why the SPC is resisting using a 1-5 scale just as we already have for tornadoes and hurricanes. It's a lot easier for the public to understand 5 = bad than to have to figure out if "enhanced" is worse or better than "moderate". Most of my non-geek neighbors don't understand this scale so they end up asking me if things are going to be bad. The official scale should give them that information at a glance.
Quoting 261. StormTrackerScott:

I guess Bob Cats have discovered that shark meat is delicious.

Who knew that large wild cats were expert shark fishermen?

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission posted a picture to its Facebook page: It's an image of a bobcat coming out of the water at Sebastian Inlet State Park in Florida, casually dragging its catch of the day behind it: a shark that doesn't look a whole lot smaller than the bobcat!

The FWC says photographer John Bailey was strolling along the beach when he spotted the wildcat just sitting and staring into the water, and then leapt in and grabbed the Atlantic Sharpnose shark - and pulled it to shore.


Source AOL


I googled for it, and found a few news items, all of them calling it a bobcat, when it's obviously a cougar. Picture of it carrying the shark

Here
Quoting 245. hydrus:

Sat pic looks like a summer pattern...until the front sweeps through late week..



Looks like the summer brass knuckle effect now

Quoting sar2401:
Did Greg Carbin actually draw that for today? Pretty neat. Those red arrows sure show the areas where things will happen today. Alabama is conspicuous by its absence.


Pulled it from the SPC Facebook page. It was also posted on their Twitter page.
Link
Quoting yonzabam:


I googled for it, and found a few news items, all of them calling it a bobcat, when it's obviously a cougar.
Nah, that is definitely a bobcat. The body proportions, the fur colorations, the ears, the paws, and--perhaps most tellingly--the bobbed tail are all giveaways.
Yep sar, but I think worst will be closer to Tim/StL metro. Still, night time storms are the worst & TV futurecast last night had the biggest red in my area around midnight. Didn't get a chance to catch update this a.m., maybe at lunch.

Sorry yonz, that's a bobcat, note "bobbed" tail, cougars have very long tails.
first round of heavy rain for today just moving in



Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 6m 6 minutes ago

The last 45 days have been the 2nd-warmest on record for this time of the year in Miami-- too warm too early!

Quoting 269. Neapolitan:

Nah, that is definitely a bobcat. The body proportions, the fur colorations, the ears, the paws, and--perhaps most tellingly--the bobbed tail are all giveaways.


A quick glance on google pics will show you it's definitely not a bobcat, which has a distinctly spotted coat with stripes on the legs and distinctive long tufted ears. It's a cougar which seems to have lost some of its tail.
Quoting 271. dabirds:

Yep sar, but I think worst will be closer to Tim/StL metro. Still, night time storms are the worst & TV futurecast last night had the biggest red in my area around midnight. Didn't get a chance to catch update this a.m., maybe at lunch.

Sorry yonz, that's a bobcat, note "bobbed" tail, cougars have very long tails.


I know. Accidents to tails are not unknown. I wonder if bobcats and cougars can interbreed, though? Wolves and coyotes can produce hybrids.
STS - Gee thanks for the head up that Miami is going to be unbearably hot.
Quoting 265. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but any scale that requires a table is just too complicated. I don't know why the SPC is resisting using a 1-5 scale just as we already have for tornadoes and hurricanes. It's a lot easier for the public to understand 5 = bad than to have to figure out if "enhanced" is worse or better than "moderate". Most of my non-geek neighbors don't understand this scale so they end up asking me if things are going to be bad. The official scale should give them that information at a glance.

No scale is going to be perfect because there will always be exceptions to the rule. Sure, a 1-5 hurricane scale seems simple, but that does not mean 1 = a breeze and 5 = a catastrophe. Factors such as size, movement, and storm surge have to be factored in for each cyclone. 47 known Atlantic tropical cyclones have caused at least $1 billion in damage; 10 of those came storms below major hurricane strength. Fifi in 1974 killed over 8,000 as a Category 2; Stan in 2005 killed at least 1,600 as a Category 1. It's never simple.
Hello All..

Just checking in..

How about those Duke Blue Devils!!

I was at Cameron yesterday to hear the greatest Coach speak on their success and see the 2015 NCAA Champions..

In weather news a beautiful warm day here in Wilmington..I also see our severe weather season is not holding back punches in the next three days..I see my area is getting on the action on day 3



Link
My latest video.
Yonza that is a Florida Bobcat only Lynx have the tufted ears not Bobcats, I see the spots and striped legs Land Mammals - Bobcat - Florida Fish and Wildlife ...
myfwc.com/.../bobca...
Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
Widely distributed throughout most of North America, this cat has adapted well to neighborhoods throughout Florida. The bobcat is equally at home in deep ...
Link
My latest forecast.
Quoting 274. yonzabam:



A quick glance on google pics will show you it's definitely not a bobcat, which has a distinctly spotted coat with stripes on the legs and distinctive long tufted ears. It's a cougar which seems to have lost some of its tail.


You have to understand
...it's florida. ...If it's not a theme park ride or a fish they won't know what it is...The other telling fact is a bobcat is about twice the size of a cat.....This animal is much larger
Quoting 276. yonzabam:



I know. Accidents to tails are not unknown. I wonder if bobcats and cougars can interbreed, though? Wolves and coyotes can produce hybrids.

Puma/bobcat Hybrid Florida?
Read the comments as well. Hmmm ...
Quoting 74. sar2401:

Join the club. I have the same problem here in SE AL.. With only o.72" of rain in the past 30 days, it's getting real dry here. I live near a huge lake, and that thing seems to eat thunderstorms for lunch. There will be an inch of rain 10 miles from me and all I get is heat and humidity. 92 here with a 67 degree dewpoint and the closest rain to me is down by Tallahassee.


I've often remarked that Cumulonimbus missingus is one of the most frustratingly common cloud formations of summer.

On the warm side of comfortable when I walked the dogs last night at 9:30. 68F and humid. House was hot but I knew what was coming. Backdoor front came through around 11'ish and dropped temps 10F in an hour. 46F this morning. We stay in the marine layer till Friday AM, then hottish and humid. Friday.

Warmth this week has bradford pears finally blooming (normally mid March here) and cherry blossoms on the verge. The 1958 latest record of 4/18 appears safe.


Whiteflies are said to not survive winters north of the Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic coast. The whiteflies in my garden didn't read that textbook. I had a few survivors hanging on to my Brussels Sprouts and Broccoli in
early March. They were fully exposed to the intense arctic outbreaks of late February. Yesterday, picking the last brussels sprouts for greens I had to go through a cloud of whiteflies. The suckers multiplied in March, even our cold rotten miserable wet March of 2015. I will clean out all greenery that harbors them this weekend.



Quoting 274. yonzabam:



A quick glance on google pics will show you it's definitely not a bobcat, which has a distinctly spotted coat with stripes on the legs and distinctive long tufted ears. It's a cougar which seems to have lost some of its tail.
To be exact, it is cougar from Texas. They have a breeding program here in Florida trying to pull up the number of Florida Panthers using cougars from Texas...


The Texas cougar subspecies of Felis concolor is a close relative of the Florida panther and a traditional breeding partner in former times. The genetic makeup of the two cougar families is very similar.

Over the past 100 years, the Florida panther has been gradually cut off and isolated from other subspecies. Before that time, its range overlapped with several other subspecies. At these natural boundary points and edge territories, subspecies met and mated.

This intermingling of similar though distinct subgroups of the same species had the effect of maintaining a beneficial gene flow that resulted in a hardier, more resilient stock. The drastic fragmentation of habitats in the past 100 years and the extinction of some subspecies such as the Eastern cougar isolated the Florida panther and cut off its corridors to other subspecies.

Now, in an effort to strengthen the Florida panther populations, a limited number of Texas cougars will soon be introduced in a government-sponsored interbreeding program in southern Florida. It is hoped that this will enhance genetic makeup and help reverse the debilitating effects of Florida panther inbreeding.

A first step involved introducing several non-breeding Texas cougars into the Florida habitat to demonstrate their adaptability to their new home. They passed this test with flying colors. Currently, eight more Texas cougars, fully capable of breeding, are being introduced. At first, they will live in large pens until they acclimate to Florida. Then they will begin their new lives in the wild.

The National Parks and Conservation Association, with support from the Quaker Oats Company, has played a key part in this effort. In addition to the NPCA's participation in planning an education outreach program, NPCA financed the transportation of the Texas cougars to South Florida.

Results of the Interbreeding Program will be evaluated over the next several years. The panther's gestation period is around three months, so kittens could be expected in 1995 and young adults of mating age by 1997-98. If, as hoped, a gradual genetic revitalization of the Florida panther population occurs, then its chance of survival in the wild will be greatly enhanced.
I'll go with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, it is a bobcat.
Quoting 274. yonzabam:



A quick glance on google pics will show you it's definitely not a bobcat, which has a distinctly spotted coat with stripes on the legs and distinctive long tufted ears. It's a cougar which seems to have lost some of its tail.

I agree. This is a bobcat:

The body proportions are quite different from the shark photo.
.
Quoting 283. ricderr:



You have to understand
...it's florida. ...If it's not a theme park ride or a fish they won't know what it is...The other telling fact is a bobcat is about twice the size of a cat.....This animal is much larger



Florida marketing slogan from the mid 80s

"This is Florida. The rules are different here"
if that thing's a bobcat it's gotta be the biggest one on record.

Quoting fireflymom:
Yonza that is a Florida Bobcat only Lynx have the tufted ears not Bobcats, I see the spots and striped legs Land Mammals - Bobcat - Florida Fish and Wildlife ...
myfwc.com/.../bobca...
Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
Widely distributed throughout most of North America, this cat has adapted well to neighborhoods throughout Florida. The bobcat is equally at home in deep ...
Yikes...SPC outlook update running 17 minutes late. This setup must really be a stumper for them.

Looks like we have a moderate chance today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No scale is going to be perfect because there will always be exceptions to the rule. Sure, a 1-5 hurricane scale seems simple, but that does not mean 1 = a breeze and 5 = a catastrophe. Factors such as size, movement, and storm surge have to be factored in for each cyclone. 47 known Atlantic tropical cyclones have caused at least $1 billion in damage; 10 of those came storms below major hurricane strength. Fifi in 1974 killed over 8,000 as a Category 2; Stan in 2005 killed at least 1,600 as a Category 1. It's never simple.
Nothing is perfect no doubt, but we're talking about a system that can quickly communicate to the general public about upcoming risk, not the results. There have been violent tornadoes when the forecast was just for some scattered thunderstorms, but the risk scale from the SPC is just too hard for the general public to understand. Using a text indicator for risk always means different things to different people, including people who have a limited understanding of the English language. A numerical scale is well understood and doesn't depend on language proficiency.
Quoting 287. nrtiwlnvragn:

I'll go with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, it is a bobcat.

I agree. And thanks for the link....as they addressed the question of whether it's a bobcat or not.

Quoting 291. schwankmoe:

if that thing's a bobcat it's gotta be the biggest one on record.



I looked up Atlantic sharpnose shark...average adult is only 3-3.25' long. At first I thought the cat might be larger, but given the 'scale of the shark', it's not as bit as I originally thought. Check out nrtiwlnvragn's post w/ the facebook link, and see how FL F&WC responded.
moderate risk for severe

SPC has upgraded to moderate risk for the tornado threat this afternoon. Wind and hail probabilities remain unchanged. Several tornadoes likely and probably a couple strong/long tracked ones.

and I officially have an enhanced risk now. Good!
mod risk day 2 as well

Do we have storms firing now? Or is it just me?
Quoting 274. yonzabam:



A quick glance on google pics will show you it's definitely not a bobcat, which has a distinctly spotted coat with stripes on the legs and distinctive long tufted ears. It's a cougar which seems to have lost some of its tail.

Looking a bit more closely, I think you may be right. The shape of the head does appear to be a Florida panther (cougar).

Maybe he lost part of his tail fishing for shark!
Quoting yonzabam:


A quick glance on google pics will show you it's definitely not a bobcat, which has a distinctly spotted coat with stripes on the legs and distinctive long tufted ears. It's a cougar which seems to have lost some of its tail.
I think the scale of the picture makes the bobcat look larger than it is. The Sharpnose shark when it's full grown only reaches 2.5 to 3 feet. Even if it's 3 feet, a Florida bobcat is well within that kind of dimension. The blurry picture doesn't help any but it looks like a bobcat. There are less than 200 Florida panthers, or cougars, left in the wild, and even a young adult would be about 5 feet long, much longer than the shark.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mod risk day 2 as well



How do you know for sure? I see nothing for day 2 on SPC.
Quoting 305. 62901IL:



How do you know for sure? I see nothing for day 2 on SPC.
the yellow circle is mod risk red circle would be high risk and the green is slight risk

and at the moment shows yellow circle completely covering your state with hatch lines meaning significant event likely
Looks like southern Kansas is about to explode soon. You can see the jet convergence over north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas.
308. 882MB
Area of moderate risk, is getting sunshine right now, adding to the instability. Coffeyville, Kansas which is in the moderate risk, is reporting a temperature of 78 degrees.

Quoting 266. yonzabam:



I googled for it, and found a few news items, all of them calling it a bobcat, when it's obviously a cougar. Picture of it carrying the shark

Here


I have to disagree. It's a Florida Bobcat. They have lighter dappling, with slightly darker patterning on the legs. While the lighting and water do a good job of obliterating any dappling, closer inspecting does reveal the patterning. The short curved tail is also a dead giveaway. A tail injury wouldn't have tufted hair on the end, and it would be a remarkable coincidence to have such a "clean" injury making the tail the correct size, shape, and characteristics to replicate that of a bobcat.

In addition, cougars have a much more elongated face than bobcats, and are also larger. Based on the information in the article the caught shark was approximately 4 feet long. This would make the bobcat about the size of full grown male bobcat.

The ear shape is also wrong for a cougar or panther. Both the cougar and panther have rounded ears, while the image shows a sharper ear profile.

The evidence seems to strongly support that it's a bobcat.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks like southern Kansas is about to explode soon. You can see the jet convergence over north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas.


Oh my!!! Stay safe!!

Quoting 882MB:
Area of moderate risk, is getting sunshine right now, adding to the instability. Coffeyville, Kansas which is in the moderate risk, is reporting a temperature of 78 degrees.



See above.
311. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1 hHace 1 hora
http://Weatherbell.com took strong stand against major el nino last year.However this years will be stronger,but start backing off in winter
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the yellow circle is mod risk red circle would be high risk and the green is slight risk

and at the moment shows yellow circle completely covering your state with hatch lines meaning significant event likely


I believe that you are looking at probabilistic. 30% is yellow. That is Enhanced risk.

CoCoRaHS site around the corner showed .04, better than nothing....
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I've often remarked that Cumulonimbus missingus is one of the most frustratingly common cloud formations of summer.

On the warm side of comfortable when I walked the dogs last night at 9:30. 68F and humid. House was hot but I knew what was coming. Backdoor front came through around 11'ish and dropped temps 10F in an hour. 46F this morning. We stay in the marine layer till Friday AM, then hottish and humid. Friday.

Warmth this week has bradford pears finally blooming (normally mid March here) and cherry blossoms on the verge. The 1958 latest record of 4/18 appears safe.


Whiteflies are said to not survive winters north of the Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic coast. The whiteflies in my garden didn't read that textbook. I had a few survivors hanging on to my Brussels Sprouts and Broccoli in
early March. They were fully exposed to the intense arctic outbreaks of late February. Yesterday, picking the last brussels sprouts for greens I had to go through a cloud of whiteflies. The suckers multiplied in March, even our cold rotten miserable wet March of 2015. I will clean out all greenery that harbors them this weekend.



My Bradford pear has been bloomed out and green for almost two weeks. My daylilies are already blooming while the azaleas are already looking peaked. My roses are already in full bloom and my gardenias are starting to open. We are probably about three weeks to a month ahead of normal blooming schedule. This heat (it's 91 now) is a real killer. It wouldn't be as bad if we had rain but the lawn is already losing its spring green and starting to turn brown. Our winter was enough to kill off the whitefly as far as I can tell. Except for the established and hardy perennials, this winter killed almost everything. I guess it was cold enough over a long enough period of time to take care of the whitefly. I still had them last year but not this year. Last year, since December 1, I had 18 days below freezing and only 7 days below 20. This year was 4o days below freezing, 19 days below 20, and an absolute minimum of 9 degrees.
well define bow echo here

Quoting 315. sar2401:

My Bradford pear has been bloomed out and green for almost two weeks. My daylilies are already blooming while the azaleas are already looking peaked. My roses are already in full bloom and my gardenias are starting to open. We are probably about three weeks to a month ahead of normal blooming schedule. This heat (it's 91 now) is a real killer. It wouldn't be as bad if we had rain but the lawn is already losing its spring green and starting to turn brown. Our winter was enough to kill off the whitefly as far as I can tell. Except for the established and hardy perennials, this winter killed almost everything. I guess it was cold enough over a long enough period of time to take care of the whitefly. I still had them last year but not this year. Last year, since December 1, I had 18 days below freezing and only 7 days below 20. This year was 4o days below freezing, 19 days below 20, and an absolute minimum of 9 degrees.


Brussels Sprouts and Broccoli will (barely) survive winters here in DC suburban MD and they remain succulent enough for whiteflies to feed. I suspect that's why they survived. But I have to get rid of them or I'll have a problem this summer. The only year they were really a problem for me was summer 1977 in Alexandria VA and I think that year they came in on an infested garden transplant. I have reported the whitefly survival to the UMD extension service.
service.

Quoting 285. georgevandenberghe:



I've often remarked that Cumulonimbus missingus is one of the most frustratingly common cloud formations of summer.

On the warm side of comfortable when I walked the dogs last night at 9:30. 68F and humid. House was hot but I knew what was coming. Backdoor front came through around 11'ish and dropped temps 10F in an hour. 46F this morning. We stay in the marine layer till Friday AM, then hottish and humid. Friday.

Warmth this week has bradford pears finally blooming (normally mid March here) and cherry blossoms on the verge. The 1958 latest record of 4/18 appears safe.


Whiteflies are said to not survive winters north of the Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic coast. The whiteflies in my garden didn't read that textbook. I had a few survivors hanging on to my Brussels Sprouts and Broccoli in
early March. They were fully exposed to the intense arctic outbreaks of late February. Yesterday, picking the last brussels sprouts for greens I had to go through a cloud of whiteflies. The suckers multiplied in March, even our cold rotten miserable wet March of 2015. I will clean out all greenery that harbors them this weekend.






I've read that smearing Tanglefoot on red balls and hanging them can at least dent the population.
day 2 graphic updated



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
day 2 graphic updated





But...But...It's still an Enhanced risk!!!! :'(
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well define bow echo here



I call it a "Serial Derecho"
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 277. Dakster:

STS - Gee thanks for the head up that Miami is going to be unbearably hot.
When are we suppose to get hot, I love the warm weather and would like to see the ocean warm up so I can do a little diving in the near future. Is this hot weather associated with the Nino?
I would LOVE to witness a Super volcano blast off. Great Blog Dr. Mastery!! VEI of 8-9 would be an out of this world experience. Climatic effects would be extremely profound and lasting. It would humbling which we all need.
Quoting 324. WeatherConvoy:

I would LOVE to witness a Super volcano blast off. Great Blog Dr. Mastery!! VEI of 8-9 would be an out of this world experience. Climatic effects would be extremely profound and lasting. It would humbling which we all need.


Yeah. It would probably send us both to "the other side"
Comment 326 is the silliest comment I've ever seen.
Quoting 324. WeatherConvoy:

I would LOVE to witness a Super volcano blast off. Great Blog Dr. Mastery!! VEI of 8-9 would be an out of this world experience. Climatic effects would be extremely profound and lasting. It would humbling which we all need.


It would be your final climax that is for sure.