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Major Severe Weather Outbreak Possible This Week

By: Bob Henson 4:13 PM GMT on April 06, 2015

The atmospheric ingredients are aligning for what could be intense severe weather this week, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. A powerful upper-level low is expected to bring the storminess to the Plains, Midwest, and South as it slowly makes its way eastward. The low is now pushing into California, where its power is being put to good use: providing much-needed snow in the Sierras and rain at lower elevations. From 4” to 8” of snow was observed above 3500 feet in the Sierra over the weekend, and winter storm warnings are in effect for 8-16” of higher-elevation snow late Monday into Tuesday, with local two-foot amounts possible on the highest peaks. The San Francisco Bay area could get anywhere from 0.5” to 2” of rain. While this won’t come close to breaking the severe multi-year drought across California, it’ll at least add a few drops to the bucket and give residents a psychological boost. The cold upper-level air may even lead to severe thunderstorms over central California on Tuesday, with a tornado or two possible.


Figure 1. Dew points as of 9:00 am CDT Monday, April 6, had already risen above 55°F across Texas and Oklahoma, with 65°F values moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. Higher dew points indicate richer moisture near the surface; most severe weather occurs with dew points of at least 55°F. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data.


Ahead of the upper low, high-level southwesterly winds will overspread much of the country over the next several days. This flow over the Rockies will help maintain surface low pressure over the high plains of Colorado and Kansas, and the circulation will pull in plenty of moisture. As shown in Figure 1 above, dew point temperatures (the temperature to which the air needs to be cooled in order for the relative humidity to reach 100%) are already near 70°F along the Texas coast--not too far from typical summertime values. This rich moisture will surge north through the week, with mild, humid air possibly making it as far north as Chicago and Cleveland by Thursday. The juxtaposition of muggy low-level air and the cold upper-level storm will produce strong instability over a wide area. However, a very warm, dry layer sandwiched between the two—an atmospheric “cap”—should keep storms from becoming widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Any storms that do manage to break through the cap could quickly become severe, especially along a dry line from Texas to Missouri. Late Monday and again late Tuesday, overnight storms could produce severe wind or hail across parts of northeast Kansas and Missouri.


Figure 2. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the southern Plains in a slight risk of severe weather for this Wednesday, April 8. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


Computer models are in strong agreement that the situation will become more volatile by Wednesday afternoon, as the upper low pushes into the Great Basin and pieces of energy swing around it onto the Plains. The unusually rich moisture for early April will lead to CAPE values perhaps exceeding 3000 J/kg, which is more than sufficient for supercell thunderstorms. (CAPE is “convective available potential energy,” or the amount of energy that could be unleashed as rising motion if a storm begins to develop.) In addition, the dry line will sharpen and begin moving east, and a warm front will also sharpen east of a surface low in the vicinity of central Kansas. As air converges along the dry line and front, it will be forced upward, encouraging storm development. Another crucial factor will be the strong vertical wind shear, or the variation from low-level southerlies to much stronger southwesterlies just above the surface. Strong wind shear imparts a spin to air parcels, and as they feed into a supercell thunderstorm, their spin (or vorticity) can become stretched and concentrated, enhancing storm rotation and possible tornado formation. (For an excellent depiction of this process, see this National Geographic interactive animation, which illustrates the classic supercellular tornado process. Weaker, shorter-lived tornadoes can form in other ways.)

All of the factors noted above are strongly associated with classic severe weather outbreaks, and their expected intensity is such that significant severe weather is is possible, as mentioned by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in its Day 3 outlook for Wednesday, issued early Monday. The area most at risk for tornadic storms (see Figure 2) is along the dry line, anticipated to extend from central Oklahoma into central Kansas, and along the warm front through eastern Kansas. Since the storms may not be exceptionally numerous at first, SPC’s current outlook for Wednesday calls for only a “slight” risk of severe weather, even though tornadic supercells are quite possible where storms do form.


Figure 3. The red zone on this map indicates an elevated risk of supercell thunderstorms at 6 pm Wednesday, based on Monday’s 1200 GMT NAM model run. The supercell composite parameter combines several measures of instability and vertical wind shear. The wind flags show the contrasts in wind speed and direction between the 500 mb (blue) and 850 mb (black) levels. Strong vertical wind shear is evident across much of Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and southwest Missouri, where powerful westerly winds at 500 mb are flowing above more southerly flow at 850 mb. Image credit: College of DuPage NeXT Generation Weather Lab.


The upper low will sweep into the central Plains on Thursday, pushing the risk area for severe storms well eastward. Much will depend on where storms develop on Wednesday night and how much they persist into Thursday morning. Where the air is not extensively rain-cooled, very intense storms could develop along the surging cold front and just east of the surface low, perhaps reaching eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin by evening. Upper-level winds will be even stronger than on Wednesday, and any tornadoes that form could be moving rapidly, adding to the threat. By Thursday night, a large complex of severe storms may bring high winds, large hail, and very heavy rain from east Texas into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. These storms are likely to weaken somewhat as they move further from the upper low into the Gulf and Atlantic coastal states by Friday. The system may also bring additional rain to flood-hammered parts of Kentucky. According to the Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen, Louisville, KY, saw its fourth-wettest calendar day on record last Friday, April 3, with 5.64” at Standiford Field (the city’s official reporting site) and 8.03” at the Louisville NWS office. The city has received more than a foot of rain and melted snow since March 1. More than 100 water rescues were carried out in the Louisville area, and Kentucky governor Steve Beshear declared a state of emergency on Saturday.


Weather and climate talks, hands-on science this weekend in Nebraska
I’ll be delivering a talk and signing copies of my book “The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change” this Saturday, April 11, at the Central Plains Severe Weather Symposium and Family Weatherfest in Lincoln, Nebraska. This free event draws several thousand people each year from throughout the state and region. The symposium, organized by University of Nebraska meteorology professor Kenneth Dewey with a variety of sponsors, began in 1999 and features a half-day of speakers from eastern Nebraska and beyond. Representatives from the Nebraska Office of Emergency Management will discuss the state’s response to the disastrous twin tornadoes that struck the town of Pilger last June 16. Joining me for the book signing will be Nancy Gaarder, a top-notch weather reporter at the Omaha World-Herald. Nancy has just released “Nebraska Weather,” a 200-page guide with dozens of photos from the World-Herald archives. The concurrent Family Weatherfest is modeled after a similar event held at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Local TV weathercasters will be on hand, and kids can deliver forecasts on the same type of “green screens” used by the pros.

Bob Henson

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 416. ColoradoBob1:

Flood Insurance Rates To Increase April 1 for Thousands of Homes Along U.S. Coastline

Flood insurance rates are set to skyrocket when a new bill goes into effect on April 1. Known as the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 (HFIAA), it's going to drive the prices of flood insurance plans through the roof for residents of all U.S. coastlines.

How much could they increase? In some areas where flood maps show maximum risk, premiums that were previously $500 could be raised to as much as $20,000 a year or more, according to estimates released in 2013....................................... Lawmakers say there's one big reason for this new law: FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is broke. It's $24 billion in debt and only able to pay on its interest at this point, and only collected about $4 billion in premiums while insuring nearly $1.5 trillion in property, according to a Government Accountability Office report.


Link

Quoting 417. yonzabam:



Anyone who thinks that methane bubbling out of hydrates is going to reduce oxygen levels 'that could threaten mammals, including humans' is a few bananas short of a bunch.


He was referencing micro organisms that feed off the algae. His statement was they are finding evidence that methane hydrates destroy or limit the amount of oxygen that algae typically produces. Algae is already being threatened by the increasing acidity in our oceans and by increasing the concentration of methane hydrates in the environment that algae form within it is yet another variable which is adding to the strain on the local ecosystem.

He makes a reference to this at about the 45 minute mark of the interview. What he is stating is only hypothetically, but is gaining more credit as evidence continues to support this notion.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1 minHace 1 minuto
Latest CFSv2 prediction calling for a robust El Nino event by August-October. Ensemble mean ~1.6C for Nino 3.4.
thanx mr henson.......mighty large swath of green in that image.......
Thanks Bob. NOAA keeps putting me on the edge of the predicted weather. I hate the edge...
Excellent blog. Appreciate your informative and easy to read entries, Bob Henson.
Thank You Mr. Henson; the current WPC short-term forecast notes the current temperature differentials (between North Conus and South Conus) in terms of today's jet position from East to West. That will allow for plenty of warm air to pool over the plains between now and Wednesday; once the low pushes through, all that warmer gulf flow will be injected towards the the cooler air mass to the North. A classic April set-up as the low pushes in off the Rockies. Here are the relevant portions of the am discussion and the current relative jet position:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Mon Apr 06 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2015 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2015

...A wet period in store for the Western U.S. including much of
California...

...Large temperature departures from normal expected across the
Central/Eastern U.S...


...Wintry precipitation likely from the Upper Midwest to New England...



While the weather will be quite active along the West Coast, likewise can
be said for the evolving pattern over the Central/Eastern U.S. The focus
for unsettled conditions will be in response to a meandering west-to-east
oriented frontal zone. Temperature forecasts suggest a gradient of 40 to
50 degrees along this front which leads to quite impressive anomalies.
For
instance, high temperatures on Tuesday being in the low to mid 80s across
the Southern Plains translates to readings 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile, north of the meandering boundary, highs should only reach the
40s over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest which suggests anomalies in
the 5 to 10 degree range below climatology.

As persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico overrides this
boundary, a broad area of overrunning precipitation is expected north of
the front. This supports some sort of mixture of wintry precipitation
types with 2 to 4 inches of snow possible from Central Minnesota eastward
across the Northern Great Lakes and into the northern section of New
England. Similarly, a light area of freezing rain is likely along this
axis of snowfall which could compromise travel over these regions.

The other aspect of this pattern is the showers and thunderstorms which
will break out in the expansive warm sector. The drivers of this
convection will be a combination of energy shearing from the Western U.S.
trough working with instability that builds from daytime heating.
Much of
the activity should be rather disorganized with heavy downpours possible
within some of the stronger convective elements. Given recent issues with
flash flooding along the Ohio River, a threat for additional excessive
rainfall is possible given the chances for heavy rainfall during the next
couple of days.


Informative blog, but a bit technical for this casual observer. However, I got enough out of it to surmise that certain objects that are currently in Kansas, may not be in Kansas by Friday.

However, the set up and the NOAA's slight risk warning seem at odds. Maybe because the main event is three days away, they're factoring in uncertainty, and will up the category if things pan out as predicted?
Quoting 7. yonzabam:

Informative blog, but a bit technical for this casual observer. However, I got enough out of it to surmise that certain objects that are currently in Kansas, may not be in Kansas by Friday.

However, the set up and the NOAA's slight risk warning seem at odds. Maybe because the main event is three days away, they're factoring in uncertainty, and will up the category if things pan out as predicted?


Indeed, NOAA/SPC is generally cautious and deliberate in ramping up risk levels as confidence levels evolve. Another important point is that the risk levels correspond to storm coverage as well as intensity. Our blog post of March 23 covers this in detail.

--Bob H.
Thanks Dr. Henson. Guys I'll have a video out today. Also my severe weather blog will be a second outlet ok.
san Francisco 7-day............................................. ............................
Todd Kimberlain @ToddKimberlain · Apr 4
From an SST-anomaly perspective, it can't get more unfavorable for Atlantic TCs this year #ElNino #hurricane #2015
This has got to be the worst state the Atlantic Basin has been in since the 1990's in regards to TC formation this Summer.
Thanks dok henson!

2015 hurricane season predicted to be “the most active and dangerous in 3 years”

Home / News / Current Page
Almost six months ahead of the 2015 hurricane season, a Florida-based company is predicting a very active season. See PRESS RELEASE below:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, “The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years”.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued “the most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño would not form.”

GWO issues predictions based on its “patent pending” Climate Pulse Technology developed by Mr. Dilley. GWO currently has 11 United States prediction zones from New England to Texas, and the Philippine Islands in the western Pacific. He also issues accurate predictions for El Niño events and other climate cycles.

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.

The Atlantic Basin experiences on the average 11 to 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. GWO predicts the 2015 hurricane season to be a little above average and more dangerous, with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In addition, GWO is predicting three Hurricane Hot Spots along the United States coastline that are at high risk for hurricane activity this year, with at least 1 major hurricane likely.

When GWO predicts a high probability for hurricane conditions within one of their prediction zones, it is red-flagged as a hurricane or tropical storm “Hot Spot”. GWO’s hot spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 87 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by companies and other organizations. GWO is the only organization that predicts hurricane conditions for specific zones, and for up to 4 years in advance. Detailed predictions for the 11 hurricane zones can be obtained by going to (http://www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com).

GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño would not form. GWO was also the only organization to predict the very weak 2013 hurricane season, “Hot Spot” zone predictions of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). The prediction of Sandy, a high-impact hybrid storm was made 3 years in advance, and Irene 2 years in advance.

What makes GWO a standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of GWO’s “patent pending” Climate Pulse Technology (CPT) that incorporates natural mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather and climate cycles. Research over the past 30 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have varying weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, Dilley then uses the Climate Pulse Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane season, and the probability risk for hurricane or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.

GWO Webinars, detailed hurricane zone predictions, past hurricane season verification, graphics, and the “free” climate change e-book “Earth’s Natural Climate Pulse”, authored by David Dilley can be acquired through the GWO web site http://www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com.
In addition, an interactive electronic subscription to the GWO’s hurricane predictions can also be acquired through GWO’s working partner, XtremeGIS http://www.xtremegis.com the risk management division of Wall Street Network (WSN) http://www.wsn.net.
Mixed predictions for 2015 Atlantic hurricane season

CARIBBEAN360FEBRUARY 5, 2015
604233
hurricane-gonzalo3COLORADO, United States, Thursday February 5, 2015 – While long-range forecasts for 2015 Atlantic hurricane activity indicate another average to slightly below average season, there is some divergence of opinion so far in advance of the official start of the season on June 1.

The respected team of Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science believes that we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014), and say that they expect typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will return in 2015.

In December, the Colorado State forecasters noted that it was challenging to forecast whether or not the then developing weak El Niño would persist through the 2015 hurricane season. While significant weakening of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and thermohaline circulation (THC) was noted during the spring of 2014, North Atlantic SST and sea level pressure patterns have since rebounded to conditions characteristic of an active era.

Klotzbach and Gray anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season activity will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.

For the 2015 hurricane season, four possible scenarios are anticipated with the probability of each as indicated below:

THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2015 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 10 percent chance.
THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 40 percent chance.
THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 40 percent chance.
THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10 percent chance.

Hence a large range of uncertainty remains about the outlook, which appears to suggest anything from slightly above average to below average, based on the extended range qualitative outlook. Typically, hurricane seasons with those NTC values have the following tropical cyclone activity:

180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricane

The greatest probability envisioned so far in advance was consequently thought to be from 8 to 15 named tropical storms, with from 3 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

An earlier prediction from British-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said that their extended range forecast suggested another below average season in 2015.

Based on projected climate signals, TSR forecast Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be around 20 percent below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and around 30 percent below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm.

TSR said that its main predictor for this extended range forecast is expected July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. TSR noted that this can influence cyclonic vorticity (how storms spin up) as well as vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region.

While noting a low level of precision in its long range predictions, TSR forecast 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 79.

The 65-year climate norm is 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and ACE of 102, while the 10 year average is 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and ACE of 113.

NWS forecast for Oklahoma City

Wednesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Wednesday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Thanks for the update Bob!
Hello All..

Hope everyone had a great Easter..I see we may have our first major severe weather outbreak..

As on cue..Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Severe thunderstorms in the east half of KS, southeast NE, south IA, north half MO, central OK, central TX from near Del Rio to Wichita Falls, central IL, north half IN, west-central OH. TOR:CON - 5 northeast KS, southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO; 3 southeast KS, central OK, southeast IA, northeast MO, central IL; 2 rest of area.

By the way GO DUKE!!!!!
Doesn't look like any of the Opening Day games for MLB will be impacted by weather today.
Re flood insurance, most people will get a 10% or 18 % raise, depending on if it's a primary home or a holiday home.
Nino regions going up.
Link
Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:

Doesn't look like any of the Opening Day games for MLB will be impacted by weather today.


Yawn, who cares, baseball is SO boring.
Almost six months ahead of the 2015 hurricane season, a Florida-based company is predicting a very active season. See PRESS RELEASE below:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, %u201CThe 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years%u201D.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued %u201Cthe most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Nio would not form.%u201D


would it be something if el nino backs off beginning of the summer with prime conditions during CV season. good wake up call. scott lulled me asleep
Quoting 25. MahFL:



Yawn, who cares, baseball is SO boring.


I care - MLB is my favorite of the professional sports. I imagine at least a few others might as well. Opening Day is a national tradition whether you're a big fan of baseball or not.
Great blog and info..Thank you....I hope the folks recovering from past storms do not get hit.
Quoting 26. islander101010:

Almost six months ahead of the 2015 hurricane season, a Florida-based company is predicting a very active season. See PRESS RELEASE below:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, %u201CThe 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years%u201D.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued %u201Cthe most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Ni�o would not form.%u201D


would it be something if el nino backs off beginning of the summer with prime conditions during CV season. good wake up call. scott lulled me asleep

Sure
Quoting ncstorm:
Hello All..

Hope everyone had a great Easter..I see we may have our first major severe weather outbreak..

As on cue..Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Severe thunderstorms in the east half of KS, southeast NE, south IA, north half MO, central OK, central TX from near Del Rio to Wichita Falls, central IL, north half IN, west-central OH. TOR:CON - 5 northeast KS, southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO; 3 southeast KS, central OK, southeast IA, northeast MO, central IL; 2 rest of area.

By the way GO DUKE!!!!!


HOW COME THAT IS 3 AND NOT OVER 9000?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!

Sorry. Just had to do that. :)
Nino regions going up.
Link



two things to take away from on this weeks update....first....tradewinds are once again average....and also the OLR is once again positive......hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
I'm pretty sure Global Weather Oscillations is a crackpot site that makes fanciful claims of accuracy guided by their "Climate Pulse Technology". Their products include:

"1. Accurate Hurricane and Typhoon Predictions 4 years into the future for 11 United States
prediction zones. Philippine Islands will be added in 2014 with many other prediction zones
to follow.
2. El Niño Predictions 4 years into the future​
3. Earthquake predictions for California
4. Climate Change predictions - now in a Global Cooling cycle
5. e Book - Earth's Natural Climate Pulse
6. Speakers - nationally known climate change speaker - hurricane cycles
7. Webinars"

I also have some patent pending technology (Drakoen's Ouija Board) DOB™ and would be happy to have you guys pay me money per month to tell you all about it.
Quoting 25. MahFL:



Yawn, who cares, baseball is SO boring.


Obviously, you've never watched cricket.
Quoting 32. Gearsts:



Quoting ricderr:
2015 hurricane season predicted to be “the most active and dangerous in 3 years”....

You realize that GWO is a crank outfit, not a legitimate weather forecasting site, right? And that almost everything Dillley said about his past predictions are either distortions of the truth or outright lies, right? And that this press release is an attempt to get people to pay him money for his alleged hurricane "hot spots", right? Seriously, I'd put more faith in the Old Farmer's Almanac than this guy.
You realize that GWO is a crank outfit, not a legitimate weather forecasting site, right? And that almost everything Dillley said about his past predictions are either distortions of the truth or outright lies, right? And that this press release is an attempt to get people to pay him money for his alleged hurricane "hot spots", right? Seriously, I'd put more faith in the Old Farmer's Almanac than this guy.

I'm pretty sure Global Weather Oscillations is a crackpot site that makes fanciful claims of accuracy guided by their "Climate Pulse Technology". Their products include:

"1. Accurate Hurricane and Typhoon Predictions 4 years into the future for 11 United States
prediction zones. Philippine Islands will be added in 2014 with many other prediction zones
to follow.
2. El Niño Predictions 4 years into the future​
3. Earthquake predictions for California
4. Climate Change predictions - now in a Global Cooling cycle
5. e Book - Earth's Natural Climate Pulse
6. Speakers - nationally known climate change speaker - hurricane cycles
7. Webinars"

I also have some patent pending technology (Drakoen's Ouija Board) DOB™ and would be happy to have you guys pay me money per month to tell you all about it.


yes...but i love posting them this time of year....cus this time of year they're perfect......during h-season they're quiet...and then after h season...they're perfect again....they would make the model blogger
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I care - MLB is my favorite of the professional sports. I imagine at least a few others might as well. Opening Day is a national tradition whether you're a big fan of baseball or not.
Me too. Every year, I keep hoping the Indians will finally win a pennant. The Series is probably too much to hope for. The last time they won the pennant was 1954. I was eight years old. While I live in hope, I'm pretty sure I'll be dead before they ever win another pennant.
Quoting 38. ricderr:

yes...but i love posting them this time of year....cus this time of year they're perfect......during h-season they're quiet...and then after h season...they're perfect again....they would make the model blogger


I'm sure he is a blogger here, he's from Florida. :)
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

This has got to be the worst state the Atlantic Basin has been in since the 1990's in regards to TC formation this Summer.

I disagree. In fact, the Atlantic is in a typical, ok shape, and is conducive to tropical development. Please note that there have been other years less conducive to tropical development than this year. The only thing holding this season back in terms of activity is, ENSO,AMO/THC,THDV,SAL.. The sst profile currently, isn't the best, but is in an average state, somewhat conducive to tropical development. From this website you'll find out from Phil Klorzbach, that a below average hurricane season is likely from CSU.I'M in the process now of downgrading my hurricane predictions with Maxweather. My early forecast is:
8-13 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
2-5 majors
I'll have my final numbers by the end of May, possibly on my own blog, or on this blog.
Link
Quoting ricderr:
You realize that GWO is a crank outfit, not a legitimate weather forecasting site, right? And that almost everything Dillley said about his past predictions are either distortions of the truth or outright lies, right? And that this press release is an attempt to get people to pay him money for his alleged hurricane "hot spots", right? Seriously, I'd put more faith in the Old Farmer's Almanac than this guy.

I'm pretty sure Global Weather Oscillations is a crackpot site that makes fanciful claims of accuracy guided by their "Climate Pulse Technology". Their products include:

"1. Accurate Hurricane and Typhoon Predictions 4 years into the future for 11 United States
prediction zones. Philippine Islands will be added in 2014 with many other prediction zones
to follow.
2. El Niño Predictions 4 years into the future​
3. Earthquake predictions for California
4. Climate Change predictions - now in a Global Cooling cycle
5. e Book - Earth's Natural Climate Pulse
6. Speakers - nationally known climate change speaker - hurricane cycles
7. Webinars"

I also have some patent pending technology (Drakoen's Ouija Board) DOB™ and would be happy to have you guys pay me money per month to tell you all about it.


yes...but i love posting them this time of year....cus this time of year they're perfect......during h-season they're quiet...and then after h season...they're perfect again....they would make the model blogger
LOL. However, if you really want to post links to that site, it might be a good idea to at least put a disclaimer along with it so visitors to this site don't assume their predictions are in the same league as places like CSU.
Quoting 41. tiggerhurricanes2001:


...The only thing holding this season back in terms of activity is, ENSO,AMO/THC,THDV,SAL..

"only thing"

Those are the most important factors, lol.

Your optimism is impressive, but the state of the Atlantic really could not be worse.
Interesting to note that the low in the Pacific off the Coast of the border of California and Oregon is actually working it's way down to the surface; gonna bring some pretty gusty winds onshore with it along with the rain being pumped inshore: 


Quoting 37. sar2401:

You realize that GWO is a crank outfit, not a legitimate weather forecasting site, right? And that almost everything Dillley said about his past predictions are either distortions of the truth or outright lies, right? And that this press release is an attempt to get people to pay him money for his alleged hurricane "hot spots", right? Seriously, I'd put more faith in the Old Farmer's Almanac than this guy.

Right behind you sar. I'd rather put more faith in the farmers almanac than this crackpot. They actually incorrectly predicted 14 named storms last year. Shame. Loud and incorrect.
Quoting 26. islander101010:

Almost six months ahead of the 2015 hurricane season, a Florida-based company is predicting a very active season. See PRESS RELEASE below:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, %u201CThe 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years%u201D.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued %u201Cthe most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Ni%uFFFDo would not form.%u201D


would it be something if el nino backs off beginning of the summer with prime conditions during CV season. good wake up call. scott lulled me asleep



Id better look for Phil Klotzbach/William Gray forecast on April 9 rather than this.
Quoting ncstorm:
Hello All..

Hope everyone had a great Easter..I see we may have our first major severe weather outbreak..

As on cue..Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Severe thunderstorms in the east half of KS, southeast NE, south IA, north half MO, central OK, central TX from near Del Rio to Wichita Falls, central IL, north half IN, west-central OH. TOR:CON - 5 northeast KS, southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO; 3 southeast KS, central OK, southeast IA, northeast MO, central IL; 2 rest of area.

By the way GO DUKE!!!!!



TWC contradicts itself on their website.

Their video forecast say that "Thursday has a higher probability of tornadoes," yet Dr. Forbes' Torcon values are higher for Wednesday?
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Me too. Every year, I keep hoping the Indians will finally win a pennant. The Series is probably too much to hope for. The last time they won the pennant was 1954. I was eight years old. While I live in hope, I'm pretty sure I'll be dead before they ever win another pennant.


You're probably right. My Rays are due for some rebuilding but I definitely enjoyed the success they had the last few years.
Quoting 28. tampabaymatt:



I care - MLB is my favorite of the professional sports. I imagine at least a few others might as well. Opening Day is a national tradition whether you're a big fan of baseball or not.

Me, too! Been a fan since I was a kid. Watched football for years, but over time just lost interest. I've been watching the other football now for several years, and I enjoy that just as much as MLB. Between the two, that's year-round sports :)

And I'm sure there's lots of folks out there that might think watching and pontificating about weather is boring...I say to each his own.
They're calling this in TV of "Subtropical Front".
Santa Catarina state had 75 mph wind gusts in this morning. Here in my city we have almost 30 mph.
looks like a stormy pattern..

The Redsox Spring training facility/stadium is right by my neighborhood.

Bumper to bumper traffic every afternoon from their Spring training games.

I'm glad they just recently left the area for the start of the real season. Traffic is much better.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Me too. Every year, I keep hoping the Indians will finally win a pennant. The Series is probably too much to hope for. The last time they won the pennant was 1954. I was eight years old. While I live in hope, I'm pretty sure I'll be dead before they ever win another pennant.
Didn't they play the Braves in a Series late 90s, early 2K? (Braves finally won one) At least you're more likely to see it than a Cubs fan (despite what SI says - see Cards 3 DaCubs 0).

Meanwhile, in S C IL 55-57 w/ 45-52 dew pts, press around 30", 2-10 S winds w/ 17 gust & very overcast.
Quoting Naga5000:


I'm sure he is a blogger here, he's from Florida. :)
Hmmm....Global Weather Oscillations is based in Ocala, Florida....probably in Dilley's spare bedroom.....hmmmm.... :-)
Quoting 20. Sfloridacat5:




Noticing DC metro area is in the blue. All of that juicy warm red..
is to our south and west. And that's Mid Atlantic cold air dam plus marine layer spring climatology.

However sometimes when shallow marine layers mix out, and the replacement airmass is warm and humid, the helicity just above the top of the old marine layer is large so there is tornado
risk as the marine layer dissolves
Quoting dabirds:
Didn't they play the Braves in a Series late 90s, early 2K? (Braves finally won one) At least you're more likely to see it than a Cubs fan (despite what SI says - see Cards 3 DaCubs 0).

Meanwhile, in S C IL 55-57 w/ 45-52 dew pts, press around 30", 2-10 S winds w/ 17 gust & very overcast.
Yes, 1997, but I prefer to put that down as some quirk of fate, since they reached the ninth inning of the seventh game with the lead and managed to lose it in extra innings, the only team in Series history to do so. I was coming back from a dam safety inspection in the middle of nowhere up in the Sierra and could barely get the station that was carrying the game. In between all the static, I thought they had won. When it went into extra innings, I knew we were doomed. Once again, the Indians had snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. I stopped the car, went over to a tree, and kicked it repeatedly while cursing non-stop for 10 minutes.
Quoting 41. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I disagree. In fact, the Atlantic is in a typical, ok shape, and is conducive to tropical development. Please note that there have been other years less conducive to tropical development than this year. The only thing holding this season back in terms of activity is, ENSO,AMO/THC,THDV,SAL.. The sst profile currently, isn't the best, but is in an average state, somewhat conducive to tropical development. From this website you'll find out from Phil Klorzbach, that a below average hurricane season is likely from CSU.I'M in the process now of downgrading my hurricane predictions with Maxweather. My early forecast is:
8-13 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
2-5 majors
I'll have my final numbers by the end of May, possibly on my own blog, or on this blog.
Link
We are worst than last year.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"only thing"

Those are the most important factors, lol.

Your optimism is impressive, but the state of the Atlantic really could not be worse.
Don't forget trade winds, cold fronts, and the total lack of vertical instability. But other than those things and the things already mentioned, we're good. :-)
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:

Right behind you sar. I'd rather put more faith in the farmers almanac than this crackpot. They actually incorrectly predicted 14 named storms last year. Shame. Loud and incorrect.
Good for you. You're starting to grow up. :-)
Strong squall line or QLCS..?

61. JRRP
1991

2015
Hurricane season starts June 1, but peak development in MDR is normally late summer. Plenty of time between now and then.

Quoting 26. islander101010:

Almost six months ahead of the 2015 hurricane season, a Florida-based company is predicting a very active season. See PRESS RELEASE below:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, %u201CThe 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years%u201D.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued %u201Cthe most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Ni�o would not form.%u201D


would it be something if el nino backs off beginning of the summer with prime conditions during CV season. good wake up call. scott lulled me asleep

Quoting 61. JRRP:

1991

2015

Quoting 56. sar2401:

Yes, 1997, but I prefer to put that down as some quirk of fate, since they reached the ninth inning of the seventh game with the lead and managed to lose it in extra innings, the only team in Series history to do so. I was coming back from a dam safety inspection in the middle of nowhere up in the Sierra and could barely get the station that was carrying the game. In between all the static, I thought they had won. When it went into extra innings, I knew we were doomed. Once again, the Indians had snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. I stopped the car, went over to a tree, and kicked it repeatedly while cursing non-stop for 10 minutes.
I thought they had it too, but at least you've been there twice since the baby bears!

Supposed to be mid 70s here Thurs., definitely increases severe likelihood. Showing tstorms tonight thru Fri morning, may go see if any little grays popped over weekend before it gets too muddy to get to patch.

Go Badgers (only because B10 & beat KY) Meanwhile, currently Rush vs Zep in KSHE95 March Bandness (sorry Pat, this Pat pulling for Rush - they top my bracket & Zep busted my final, had Floyd instead.)
Quoting hydrus:
Strong squall line or QLCS..?

By the time it gets to me it will be scattered showers but I'll vote for squall line. That parent low is going to be way far north so it's going to take some major instability developing further south before we see a QLCS. So far, things are just not panning out. Yesterday's blobero completely vanished before it got to SE Alabama. There's now an even smaller bloberino near Montgomery that's in the process of collapsing. It's 81 with a dewpoint of 65. I just don't know what else I need in terms of conditions to bring me rain.
Quoting dabirds:
I thought they had it too, but at least you've been there twice since the baby bears!

Supposed to be mid 70s here Thurs., definitely increases severe likelihood. Showing tstorms tonight thru Fri morning, may go see if any little grays popped over weekend before it gets too muddy to get to patch.

Go Badgers (only because B10 & beat K-Y) Meanwhile, currently Rush vs Zep in KSHE95 March Bandness (sorry Pat, this Pat pulling for Rush - they top my bracket & Zep busted my final, had Floyd instead.)
Our motto was "At least we're not the Cubs!". It was the only thing to lift our spirits. :-)

I still think Thursday will be the "big" day, although I'm still not convinced we really have one yet. If we do, and the low moves north as I expect, Missouri over to Ohio are going to be where the severe weather hits. Wednesday night may be Kansas and Arkansas. It really depends on the cap and how much prefrontal rain we have. Like all the systems lately, we'll probably have a better idea about eight hours before it happens.
All of the factors noted above are strongly associated with classic severe weather outbreaks, and their expected intensity is such that significant severe weather is is possible.<------
Quoting 67. sar2401:

Our motto was "At least we're not the Cubs!". It was the only thing to lift our spirits. :-)

I still think Thursday will be the "big" day, although I'm still not convinced we really have one yet. If we do, and the low moves north as I expect, Missouri over to Ohio are going to be where the severe weather hits. Wednesday night may be Kansas and Arkansas. It really depends on the cap and how much prefrontal rain we have. Like all the systems lately, we'll probably have a better idea about eight hours before it happens.
Thursday has been the one locals have pointed too, but we snuck into a higher risk for Wed. as well, as you say, see what develops as we get closer.



Looks like summer in the Tampa Bay area. I expect to see some storms form later in the day.
Never go against the Hammer of the Gods.

The fates state that in their PDF:




..the sky iz filled with good and bad, that mortal's never know'
Quoting 71. Patrap:

Never go against the Hammer of the Gods.

The fates state that in their PDF:




..the sky iz filled with good and bad, that mortal's never know'
Rush 4 time champ, Zep 1, but currently daily dose of Zep fans (& anyone but Rush voters) in lead on internet votes, but can't see text votes, imagine will be close, big fan base for both in StL. Will fill you in when voting closes in 20 min or so. Doing a R song then Z song for an hour, then total votes.

Going to be hard to hit mid 60s forecast w/ this cloud cover as we're still in 50s, but, there is a S wind, we'll see.
The ECMWF is indicating 0-3km Storm Relative Helicity values in excess of 600m2/s2 near the central Oklahoma-Kansas border on Wednesday afternoon. Forcing is relatively weak, but I'm expecting at least a handful of supercells near the triple point. Given an extremely unstable atmosphere and sufficient shear, those supercells will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant to violent.

And that's just my 2¢.
Quoting tampabaymatt:



Looks like summer in the Tampa Bay area. I expect to see some storms form later in the day.


Yeah, Gulf sea breeze is trying to produce a couple showers in Fort Myers.


Easterly flow crashing into the GOM sea breeze near the Gulf Coast.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
138 PM AST MON APR 6 2015

PRC003-011-067-083-093-097-099-117-125-131-062030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0014.150406T1738Z-150406T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-SAN GERMAN PR-ANASCO PR-RINCON PR-MARICAO PR-
AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-MOCA PR-
138 PM AST MON APR 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
FOR...
SAN SEBASTIAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
NORTHERN SAN GERMAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
ANASCO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... RINCON MUNICIPALITY IN
PUERTO RICO... MARICAO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
AGUADA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... LAS MARIAS MUNICIPALITY IN
PUERTO RICO... HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOCA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 134 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&
Quoting 76. LargoFl:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
138 PM AST MON APR 6 2015

PRC003-011-067-083-093-097-099-117-125-131-062030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0014.150406T1738Z-150406T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-SAN GERMAN PR-ANASCO PR-RINCON PR-MARICAO PR-
AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-MOCA PR-
138 PM AST MON APR 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
FOR...
SAN SEBASTIAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
NORTHERN SAN GERMAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
ANASCO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... RINCON MUNICIPALITY IN
PUERTO RICO... MARICAO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
AGUADA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... LAS MARIAS MUNICIPALITY IN
PUERTO RICO... HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOCA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 134 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&



Wasn't too long ago that P.R. was in a bad drought. Now flooding is occurring.
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD
231 AM PDT MON APR 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 15 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD.

* IMPACTS: EXPECT SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED ROADWAYS...INCLUDING
INTERSTATE 5 AND HIGHWAY 89. IF TRAVELING IN THIS AREA...BE SURE
TO DRESS WARMLY...CARRY TIRE CHAINS...AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION. IN ADDITION...DUE TO AN EARLY START TO
SPRING...SOME TREES ALREADY HAVE LEAVES. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND RESULT IN LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD
Quoting 78. tampabaymatt:



Wasn't too long ago that P.R. was in a bad drought. Now flooding is occurring.
Rare for this time of the year but is only on the west side. For me on the northwest still not a drop of water.
Happy Days Are Here Again Pat! They came over the hills and far away and despite By-Tor flying by night, In the End the 2011 champs became the first to repeat, besides Rush ('04, '06, '12, '14). Hey Hey, My My Zep is '15 champ!

Still haven't broke 60, so mid 60 forecast looks to be overdone, dew pts creeping up closer to temp as S winds bring up Gulf moisture.
Quoting 66. sar2401:

By the time it gets to me it will be scattered showers but I'll vote for squall line. That parent low is going to be way far north so it's going to take some major instability developing further south before we see a QLCS. So far, things are just not panning out. Yesterday's blobero completely vanished before it got to SE Alabama. There's now an even smaller bloberino near Montgomery that's in the process of collapsing. It's 81 with a dewpoint of 65. I just don't know what else I need in terms of conditions to bring me rain.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Wasn't too long ago that P.R. was in a bad drought. Now flooding is occurring.


Unfortunately the rainfall/flood advisory area isn't where P.R. is reporting drought conditions.

The flood advisory is for the western portion of the Island. The main drought area (abnormally dry) is the north central part of P.R.


Talk about a homegrown year
The East Asian Rule dictates a pattern change sometime next week for Florida with cooler Springtime air!!!
This just shows short term and soil dryness. We are very dry in the south.

Getting serious......

Quoting Gearsts:


My 9/4/1 may turn out to be optimistic.
Temperatures have over performed today and it is almost 80 degrees outside.I know the blossoms are loving this and temps tomorrow.50's mid week but the 70's will return again.
April 2014




March 31,, 2015


Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JOALANE (13-20142015)
22:00 PM RET April 6 2015
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Joalane (995 hPa) located at 13.9S 61.9E has 10 minute sustained wind of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
45 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 14.4S 61.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 14.9S 61.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 16.1S 61.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 17.5S 62.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=====================
Previous positions relocated further north per recent microwave imagery and SCATT data.

On classical imagery the cloud pattern improved somewhat earlier this evening but recently shown significant fluctuations inducing marginal improvement on the Dvorak analysis (good agreement among the 3 agencies for a ft at 2.5). However microwave imagery (WINDSAT at 1413z) depict an evident improvement of the low level structure that suggest that a rapid intensification spell may be possible within the next 24 to 48 hours. The intensity at 40 kt is based on 38 kt winds read near the radius of maximum wind on ASCAT-B of 1758z. The system has been named at 1700z by the national weather services of Mauritius.

The environmental conditions around Joalane are rather favorable: the low level convergence is good poleward. The system is north of the upper level ridge, with good equatorward divergence. The upper level vertical wind shear is weak, direction east southeast at about 10-15kt - CIMSS at 1200z - and do not seem to disturb the intensification process.

Major changes in the forecast track: at 1200z, the 3 most reliable models (GFS, EURO and UKMO) are now on a clear better agreement towards a solution shown by GFS since many runs now ... with a southwards turn that should occur east of 60.0E and a southwards to southeastwards track potentially very dangerous for Rodrigues island..

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable ... and Joalane is expected to become a powerful and dangerous cyclone later this week .. therefore, Rodrigues inhabitants should monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IKOLA, CATEGORY THREE (19U)
2:32 AM WST April 7 2015
======================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 16.0S 91.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0 D2.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.0S 92.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 20.1S 94.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 24.1S 99.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 27.7S 105.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
====================
Severe TC Ikola has had an eye evident on satellite imagery for the past 12 hours assisting location and intensity analysis. La Reunion RSMC which had previously been monitoring Ikola rated the system at 65 knots at 12Z today, after naming the TC at 1800Z on the 5th. This is less than SATCON analysis at 12Z which rated the system at 86kn [1-min mean]. The latest IR image [1730Z] shows an eye-pattern with a white surround though this has been fluctuating so intensity has been based on a 3hr average giving DT of 5.0. PT=5.0=FT=CI. Intensity rated at 80 knots [10-min mean]. SATCON gives intensity of 100 knots [1-min mean] at 1319Z.

The system intensified at greater than the standard rate for the last 24 hours, despite shear increasing significantly in the last few hours. At 0000Z this morning CiMMS indicated a low-shear environment [6 knots], with deep-layer moisture and plentiful ocean heat for further development. At 06Z CiMMS indicated shear had increased to 18 knots and Ikola's southwest track will see it encounter increasing shear as it moves away from a mid-level trough axis and encounters a stronger northwest stream. Numerical weather prediction is in good agreement as to the track of Ikola and forecasting a further short-term increase in intensity ahead of a rapid weakening in the 12-24 hour period as shear becomes untenable for the system and SST become unfavorable.
Quoting 88. Grothar:

Getting serious......




California's has been for a while
Here is the latest shot from RAMMB on the low heading inland towards Oregon and CA; gonna bring some rain and some snow to the Rockies; not enough to make a big dent in the water deficits but any snow is good snow at this point for them:

GFS and ECMWF keeping the northern stream active through the next 10 days. This is antithetical to what Scott and I discussed last week, where he was on the side of the southern stream being active and following the paradigm of El Nino.* This also coincides more with what's happening synoptically now.

*Just ribbing, Scott. Not knocking you. :)
Quoting 60. hydrus:

Strong squall line or QLCS..?


Forgive me for asking but what is a QLCS?
And here is the most recent update from near the Oregon/CA border:

Weather Story image depiciting important weather events
Models are now showing that this system will be slightly delayed in bringing more snow to southern Oregon and northern California. Winds will increase during the evening in the Shasta Valley and linger through early Tuesday morning. Snow is expected to be heaviest tonight through Tuesday morning across Siskiyou County in California. If you have travel plans for Monday night and Tuesday, be prepared for wintry travel conditions. At lower elevations, rain showers are expected; and wet roads may be slippery. 
Quoting 90. washingtonian115:

Temperatures have over performed today and it is almost 80 degrees outside.I know the blossoms are loving this and temps tomorrow.50's mid week but the 70's will return again.


Marine layer on Thursday may make low 50s or upper 40s only. But very good garden drying conditions over the past weekend and I have peas and lettuce in the ground. Back door fronts and marine layers are part of our spring climatology in the Mid Atlantic.

No I'm not letting my TC guard down. Ask S FL about the "inactive" 1992 season.


Quoting 99. georgevandenberghe:



Marine layer on Thursday may make low 50s or upper 40s only. But very good garden drying conditions over the past weekend and I have peas and lettuce in the ground. Back door fronts and marine layers are part of our spring climatology in the Mid Atlantic.

No I'm not letting my TC guard down. Ask S FL about the "inactive" 1992 season.



Almost 3wks for my spinach, peas, lettuce. Looked like the peas popped last week as putting my broc/cauli transplants in last week. Plan to put rd 2 in tonight, then go look for some little grey morels, may be a little tough to find w/ overcast skies or may be a little too early, but won't hurt to look.

Didn't break 60 in S C IL, dew pts are getting even closer to temp, press down a few hundreths, one station showing S winds beginning to get a little easterly component, though still fairly light.
Quoting 97. Tornado6042008X:

Forgive me for asking but what is a QLCS?

Quasi-Linear Convective System - Radar image of QLCS with inflection points...


Quoting 89. CybrTeddy:



My 9/4/1 may turn out to be optimistic.
Same for me.
Quoting 97. Tornado6042008X:

Forgive me for asking but what is a QLCS?
Nevermind I figured it out: Quasi-Linear Convective System
EDIT: Just saw your post hydrus.
104. wxmod
World carbon Monoxide today from the AIRS NASA website, with scale and lots of other info.

http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/todays_earth_m aps/carbon_monoxide_500mb

Quoting 103. Tornado6042008X:

Nevermind I figured it out: Quasi-Linear Convective System
EDIT: Just saw your post hydrus.
I am hoping that this system weakens before getting here. Local Met said the wind profiles, precip rates, and convection could bring severe weather. Some people here are putting there roofs back on from the storm that hit on April 3rd.

THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF FROPA...WITH THE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MID-STATE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS AS TO WHAT KIND OF CONVECTION WILL WE SEE
AND HOW INTENSE WILL IT BECOME. FORECAST SOUNDING WIND PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND A 50-55 LLJ PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IS SUGGESTIVE OF A QLCS
PASSING THROUGH THE MID-STATE FRIDAY MORNING. HERE`S THE PROBLEM:
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING OFF INSTABILITY AS YOU WOULD
EXPECT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS MIGHT END UP BEING
TRUE...3 FULL DAYS OF US BEING SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR...AND NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WOULD STILL
PRESENT A JUICY ENVIRONMENT FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THERE`S NO DOUBT A MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT IF THE WIND FIELDS VERIFY...I
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND THREAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INCREDIBLE PW VALUES
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GFS PW VALUES
OF 1.69 ARE EXTREMELY UNREALISTIC...IN FACT...THAT WOULD BE A RECORD
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT EVEN IF YOU CUT THOSE VALUES BY
25%...YOU`RE STILL LOOKING AT TOP 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. ALL OF
THIS JUST ADDS UP TO EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THE ONLY SAVING
GRACE SHOULD BE THE RELATIVELY QUICK PACE AT WHICH THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING US FROM HAVING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL BOTH DAYS SHOULD SPELL A RETURN TO
SPRING...BUT MORE RAIN MAY BE IN STORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING US
BACK INTO A WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
Another rather & comparatively large/violent tornado outbreak is likely on the way next week (the SPC is already noting that they may have to once again highlight a convective risk in subsequent 4-8 day outlooks) THROUGH THE LATTER
STAGES OF THE PERIOD...A SRN-STREAM LOW/TROUGH ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NRN MEXICO IS DEPICTED...AND
MOISTURE RETURN/AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE /AND
ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING/ MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE RISK INTO THE SRN PLAINS VICINITY LATE IN THE PERIOD..

The persistence of favorable annual jet changes/seasonal shuffling along w/ the -AAM & enhanced Indian Ocean convection is currently very conducive to forcing height falls in the Great Basin/Rockies, which in the spring is usually a prominent precursor/attendant feature associated w/ major severe wx outbreaks... BTW, Al Mariano & Victor Gensini (of the College of Dupage) expect to release a new paper regarding (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) AAM/GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) & US tornado frequency within the next few months, and considering some of the preliminary research they've conducted & my own personal knowledge on the subject, I expect their paper to add onto the findings of Roundy & Thompson (2012) where MJO phase 2 (corresponding to enhanced IO convection) favored increased tornado activity here in the US thru intraseasonal regulation of extratropical RW propagation/trains & the Pacific Jet, which, during the shorter wavelengths of the spring, leads to a large-scale zonal anticyclone extending east of Japan straddling the ~35-40N lat thru the international dateline of the N-Pac & results in a downstream configuration that leads to anomalously low heights in the western US/Rockies. Such a pattern w/ a mean trough in the Rockies, increases the mean zonal energy potential, temperature & moisture gradients/differential advection (baroclinicity) across the US that generally sets into place an environment that supports significant bouts of severe wx east of the Rockies.

Angular Momentum phase space & tornado days (1981-2010)
Notice the high tornado day frequency in quadrant III corresponding to enhanced Indian Ocean convection, Negative mountain torque, northward momentum transport, & circumglobal ridges.
(Graphic courtesy of Al Mariano)


Current AAM phase space... We're currently in quadrant III


ECMWF/GEFS z500 forecasts for next week look nasty...





Apr N America z500 25 most recent SPC High Risk Days (Apr) NARR Daily Composites
goodness hydrus- that is an eyebrow-raising forecast. Where are you at?
Interesting that the NWS put the tornado potential as "Moderate."
when you have local reports please mention where you live. thanxs
Quoting Webberweather53:
Another rather & comparatively large/violent tornado outbreak is likely on the way next week (the SPC is already noting that they may have to once again highlight a convective risk in subsequent 4-8 day outlooks) THROUGH THE LATTER
STAGES OF THE PERIOD...A SRN-STREAM LOW/TROUGH ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NRN MEXICO IS DEPICTED...AND
MOISTURE RETURN/AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE /AND
ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING/ MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE RISK INTO THE SRN PLAINS VICINITY LATE IN THE PERIOD..

The persistence of favorable annual jet changes/seasonal shuffling along w/ the -AAM & enhanced Indian Ocean convection is currently very conducive to forcing height falls in the Great Basin/Rockies, which in the spring is usually a prominent precursor/attendant feature associated w/ major severe wx outbreaks... BTW, Al Mariano & Victor Gensini (of the College of Dupage) expect to release a new paper regarding (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) AAM/GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) & US tornado frequency within the next few months, and considering some of the preliminary research they've conducted & my own personal knowledge on the subject, I expect their paper to add onto the findings of Roundy & Thompson (2012) where MJO phase 2 (corresponding to enhanced IO convection) favored increased tornado activity here in the US thru intraseasonal regulation of extratropical RW propagation/trains & the Pacific Jet, which, during the shorter wavelengths of the spring, leads to a large-scale zonal anticyclone extending east of Japan straddling the ~35-40N lat thru the international dateline of the N-Pac & results in a downstream configuration that leads to anomalously low heights in the western US/Rockies. Such a pattern w/ a mean trough in the Rockies, increases the mean zonal energy potential, temperature & moisture gradients/differential advection (baroclinicity) across the US that generally sets into place an environment that supports significant bouts of severe wx east of the Rockies.

Angular Momentum phase space & tornado days (1981-2010)
Notice the high tornado day frequency in quadrant III corresponding to enhanced Indian Ocean convection, Negative mountain torque, northward momentum transport, & circumglobal ridges.
(Graphic courtesy of Al Mariano)


Current AAM phase space... We're currently in quadrant III


ECMWF/GEFS z500 forecasts for next week look nasty...





Apr N America z500 25 most recent SPC High Risk Days (Apr) NARR Daily Composites


A very dangerous situation indeed.
111. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA
i think of the 1st gif as showing natures steam engine potential (the walls/encasement of the steam engine are the cross winds holding and building up the stored energy, to be released.

image host

static gif::
image host


yikes
Sorry to see Bob Henson's book is not available for Kindle. I don't suppose there is an e-reader version available? Seems like an important one to read!
Quoting 90. washingtonian115:

Temperatures have over performed today and it is almost 80 degrees outside.I know the blossoms are loving this and temps tomorrow.50's mid week but the 70's will return again.
It was very nice outside today with temps in the mid-upper 70s, the rainy days are coming though.
Link
My video is out for the severe weather outbreak that's coming.
Quoting 112. nwobilderburg:



yikes
yes from the 12th thru the 18th is going to be interesting..hopefully rains for florida along with it as these lows go by.
Quoting 57. Gearsts:

We are worst than last year.


There is a big difference in temps in the Gulf from last year to now, the Gulf is warming faster this year.
Always need to be prepared and ready and not let your guard down.
Quoting 117. Climate175:

There is a big difference in temps in the Gulf from last year to now, the Gulf is warming faster this year.
yes for myself im keeping a very close watch on any lows in the gulf this coming season,waters off tampa bay are already 80 and its not even mid april yet. whew
Quoting 121. LargoFl:

yes for myself im keeping a very close watch on any lows in the gulf this coming season,waters off tampa bay are already 80 and its not even mid april yet. whew
Wow, imagine what it could be as we head deeper into spring and into summer.
Quoting 115. Andrebrooks:

Link
My video is out for the severe weather outbreak that's coming.

Great video!
126. vis0

Quoting 47. Sfloridacat5:




TWC contradicts itself on their website.

Their video forecast say that "Thursday has a higher probability of tornadoes," yet Dr. Forbes' Torcon values are higher for Wednesday?
From someone (me) who is a fan of the 'ol WxCh (preferred 1980s-2001 personalities) i still would not call it (the present presentation style) a contradiction but that their more established meteorologist / specialist can present their predictions with a curve based on their LONG TIME experiences.  i think that's good. Like having several sar2401s  in a room**...was going to say vis0s in a room, but that's called an asylum.

**(sar2401 is experienced in many areas of life, NOT all but many...take in his shared knowledge and tweak it to fit your needs but don't allow that knowledge to go to waste)
128. vis0

Quoting 56. sar2401:

Yes, 1997, but I prefer to put that down as some quirk of fate, since they reached the ninth inning of the seventh game with the lead and managed to lose it in extra innings, the only team in Series history to do so. I was coming back from a dam safety inspection in the middle of nowhere up in the Sierra and could barely get the station that was carrying the game. In between all the static, I thought they had won. When it went into extra innings, I knew we were doomed. Once again, the Indians had snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. I stopped the car, went over to a tree, and kicked it repeatedly while cursing non-stop for 10 minutes.
Ya sure you just kicked just one!?

CREDIT:: "Bent Trees at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore" By Ken Scott; Ken's Web site [http://www.flickr.com/photos/kenscottphotography/ ]  (actual images are in colour)
Nearby Weather Stations on April 06, 2015 at 7:42pm
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
47.5 �F
DopplerDon.com
50.4 �F
Robby Lane
52.2 �F
Rock Hill
48.9 �F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
53.2 �F
Foxon
58.6 �F
East Haven Town Beach
Snow all melted hit 50F here today... Hope that California gets the rain without the tornados...
131. vis0

Quoting 69. dabirds:

Thursday has been the one locals have pointed too, but we snuck into a higher risk for Wed. as well, as you say, see what develops as we get closer.


i think 24 hrs prior to Thurs AM we'll see strong individual formations that can drop strong Tornadoes, even 36 hrs prior as to hail.
East Haven, CT (06512) Weather on April 03, 2015
7:25 pm EDT
Weather Condition Icon
47°F
Feels Like 43°
Fair

no more snow on the ground


no more snow onthe ground here in east haven,conn


Tropical Cyclone Ikola needs to be watch!
Quoting 107. aquak9:

goodness hydrus- that is an eyebrow-raising forecast. Where are you at?
middle TN..Warren County, Rock Island on the Cumberland Plateau. We are still cleaning up from past storms. Including the April 3 storm.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** What Americans Think About Climate Change in Seven Maps


*** Record Gasoline Output to Curb Biggest U.S. Oil Glut in 85 Years

No Red and Blue Divide When it Comes to Renewable Energy Innovation and CO2 Rules

* "Water Man of India" makes rivers flow again


We can fix the Great Barrier Reef

*** Facebook use linked to depressive symptoms


*** Western Canada to lose 70 percent of glaciers by 2100

Sea sponge anchors are natural models of strength



Water makes wires even more nano



!!! Black holes don't erase information, scientists say

!!! Oil dispersant used in Gulf Oil Spill causes lung and gill injuries to humans and aquatic animals, also identifies protective enzyme

*** California quake risk: Newly discovered link between Calaveras, Hayward faults means potentially larger earthquakes



*** Modi says India to strike own path in climate battle

Record California sea lion strandings reach 2,250 so far this year

*** Please learn the difference between tortoises and sea turtles, say Florida wildlife officials

Planes Without Pilots



*** Forest Fires Threaten New Fallout From Chernobyl

Hominid Species May Have Coexisted

!!! The Mind of Those Who Kill, and Kill Themselves


*** Great Scott! Reverse-Causality Research Ends in a Quantum Muddle

News Flash: Map Shows Where Lightning Strikes the Most Worldwide

* Climate change: no room for debate?


* More than 1 million Californians don't have reliable access to clean water

*** Titanic canal project divides Nicaragua

India launches air quality index for smog-filled cities


*** A Story of Ozone: The Earth's Natural Sunscreen (video)
Quoting 136. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** What Americans Think About Climate Change in Seven Maps


*** Record Gasoline Output to Curb Biggest U.S. Oil Glut in 85 Years

No Red and Blue Divide When it Comes to Renewable Energy Innovation and CO2 Rules

* "Water Man of India" makes rivers flow again


We can fix the Great Barrier Reef

*** Facebook use linked to depressive symptoms


*** Western Canada to lose 70 percent of glaciers by 2100

Sea sponge anchors are natural models of strength



Water makes wires even more nano



!!! Black holes don't erase information, scientists say

!!! Oil dispersant used in Gulf Oil Spill causes lung and gill injuries to humans and aquatic animals, also identifies protective enzyme

*** California quake risk: Newly discovered link between Calaveras, Hayward faults means potentially larger earthquakes



*** Modi says India to strike own path in climate battle

Record California sea lion strandings reach 2,250 so far this year

*** Please learn the difference between tortoises and sea turtles, say Florida wildlife officials

Planes Without Pilots



*** Forest Fires Threaten New Fallout From Chernobyl

Hominid Species May Have Coexisted

!!! The Mind of Those Who Kill, and Kill Themselves


*** Great Scott! Reverse-Causality Research Ends in a Quantum Muddle

News Flash: Map Shows Where Lightning Strikes the Most Worldwide

* Climate change: no room for debate?


* More than 1 million Californians don't have reliable access to clean water

*** Titanic canal project divides Nicaragua

India launches air quality index for smog-filled cities


*** A Story of Ozone: The Earth's Natural Sunscreen (video)





Hey man. I just really want to thank you for taking the time to post these articles. I for one really appreciate it!

Cheers,

Matthew
slow day...
wont be that way starting Wednesday and Thursday
Not to take away from Wednesday, and Thursday to a lesser extent, but as Eric alluded to earlier, it doesn't seem that those days will be the last we see of severe weather in the short/medium term:

Quoting wartsttocs:

Great video!
Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not to take away from Wednesday, and Thursday to a lesser extent, but as Eric alluded to earlier, it doesn't seem that those days will be the last we see of severe weather in the short/medium term:

It seems that next week will be bad too. Maybe even in my location.
Quoting 140. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not to take away from Wednesday, and Thursday to a lesser extent, but as Eric alluded to earlier, it doesn't seem that those days will be the last we see of severe weather in the short/medium term:


It is my opinion that we will experience severe weather unlike we have seen in some time. Look at the troughs one right after the other. The first will have a negative tilt. The second trough is likely to produce weather also. A very active pattern is near.


Since this place is nearly at standstill, why not post this? I went up a certain mountain among Blue Ridge Parkway on Sunday morning and took about 590 pictures so I can merge them together into a time-lapse. I've been trying to master time-lapse photography the past few weeks and I'm having fun with that :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgtslSo4js

Note: make sure the setting is on 1080p for full HD.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IKOLA, CATEGORY FOUR (19U)
8:34 AM WST April 7 2015
======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola, Category Four (951 hPa) located at 16.8S 91.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.7S 93.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 20.6S 96.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
====================
Severe TC Ikola has had an eye evident on satellite imagery for almost 24 hours assisting location and intensity analysis. The latest EIR image [2330Z] shows an eye-pattern with a black surround though this has been fluctuating between black and white over the last 6 hours. This has resulted in a DT of 5.5, PT=5.5=FT=CI. Intensity rated at 95 knots [10-min mean].

The system intensified at greater than the standard rate over the last 24 hours, however has most likely now reached its peak intensity. Shear has been gradually increasing over the system over the last 12 to 18 hours which is evident in microwave satellite imagery which shows a gradually increasing tilt to the vertical structure. At 1800 UTC the CIMMS vertical shear magnitude was northwesterly at around 30 knots. The shear will continue to increase as the system moves southeast and the upper-level northwest stream increases over the system. Numerical weather prediction is in good agreement as to the track of Ikola and favour rapid weakening in the next 24 hours as shear becomes untenable for the system and the sea surface temperatures becomes unfavorable.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JOALANE (13-20142015)
4:00 AM RET April 7 2015
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joalane (990 hPa) located at 13.9S 62.4E has 10 minute sustained wind of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 75 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 14.3S 62.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 14.8S 62.0E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 16.2S 62.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 17.8S 62.8E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=====================
The cloud pattern has continued to improve overnight. On the latest image, a curved band wraps at 0.8ao around the center (DT at 3.5). Ft is retained at 3.0 due to constraint. The analyzed intensity is above Dvorak estimates and is based on SATCON at 2218z (made with an AMSU estimate from a good N19 pass) at 58 kts (1 min wind).

Joalane is embedded within two contradictory steering flow: one from the northwest associated with the near equatorial ridge and another from the east steered by a subtropical ridge located near 25S 60E. The near equatorial steering flow seems a bit stronger currently as a small eastwards drift of the center has taken place since 18z. Within the next few days, a large barometric col should gradually move south of Joalane (south of 25S) and the mid-level highs should shift along a meridian axis located between 70E and 75E. This synoptic pattern should favor a polewards track of Joalane within a northerly to northwesterly steering flow.

Since the previous forecast, major changes has occurred in the forecast track: the 3 most reliable models (GFS, EURO and UKMO) are now on a clear better agreement towards a solution shown by GFS since many runs now ... with a southwards turn that should occur east of 60E and a southwards to southeastwards track potentially very dangerous for Rodrigues island .. the current track is close to the consensus of this three models (more to the east for the first two days as those models still analyzed the system too much west). The multi model ensemble composed by the ensemble forecast from ECMWF (eps), GFS (GEFS) and UKMO (MONGREPS) from the 1200z run, show increasing probabilities around the current expected scenario compared to the previous run.

The environmental conditions around Joalane becomes increasingly favorable : the system moves gradually under the upper level ridge, with good equatorward divergence and improving outflow elsewhere (the main outflow channel should shift to the southeast Thursday). Sea surface temperatures are conducive. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable ... and Joalane is expected to become a powerful and dangerous cyclone later this week .. Therefore, Rodrigues inhabitants should monitor the progress of this system.
146. vis0
20150-07;0015 IR4 GOES 3frames=3hrs

3hrs ending April 7th early AM 0015UTC
SUBJECT:: Interesting the 3 separate areas joined and maintain at least 90% strength for late night hrs, i suspect GoMx "fuel" is involved-imgbox
*** Titanic canal project divides Nicaragua Link

What a crying shame...biggest human and environmental disaster exploiting the people of Nicaragua.
They have no clue whats about to hit them.
Nicaragua has some of the most beautiful landscapes on our planet and some will be destroyed forever...all for more Chinese crap.

Thanks Brian for posting! Amazing how unknown and secretive the project is.
MattyU092 you're welcome! The obituary wasn't on topic, but I think the world is less strange and wonderful without a living consort to a bloodthirsty god which gave us the word 'juggernaut'.
Quoting 144. Bluestorm5:

Since this place is nearly at standstill, why not post this? I went up a certain mountain among Blue Ridge Parkway on Sunday morning and took about 590 pictures so I can merge them together in a time-lapse. I've been trying to master time-lapse photography the past few weeks and I'm having fun with that :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgtslSo4js

Note: make sure the setting is on 1080p for full HD.
Wow! Good job and beautiful view. Thank you.
150. vis0
136. BaltimoreBrian presented::     go to that comment (Pg3) has lots OF GOOD NEWS STORIES.
Sar2401 check out the * "Water Man of India" makes rivers flow again
Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:

MattyU092 you're welcome! The obituary wasn't on topic, but I think the world is less strange and wonderful without a living consort to a bloodthirsty god which gave us the word 'juggernaut'.


I agree BaltimoreBrian! I will not post my opinions on God for this is not the place and I believe it may lead to banishment. But it is quite sad to think some personify this god to advance their political and social agendas. Fear in itself is a juggernaut which motivates people to do ungodly things.

To make this weather related I will say the weather in my neck of the woods (West Palm Beach, Florida) has been outstanding as of late! A little warm and dry but being a native Floridian, this is quite common this time of year.

Hope everyone is doing well,

Matthew
Weather here is awesome for me anyways. 50F in the day although I could do without the 40-50 mph gusts at the moment... Still is bearable.

I could only hope for cooler weather when I make my way back to South Florida.
Dakster hold on a minute please.
154. vis0
Just watching this bah...lah...

image host


On a weather not related subject, ...i guess too late for the 1st of this month...
image host
What climate station is nearest you Dakster? There's a bunch in Matanuska-Susitna and Anchorage.

The menu is not intuitive. Where it says 'US State' click on that, and see US county at the top of the drop-down menu. Then click 'select a state', underneath that, pick Alaska, then 'select a county' underneath that. You'll see a bunch of climate stations.
156. vis0
Colorado State Edu, CIRA Algorithm Testbed(1187x502, anigif) image host
Lol it's falls as quick as it had risen



Holy smokes!
159. Hugo5
Classic cells north of carthage MO and Colombia MO right now.
matt GFS has our rains starting around the 12th thru 15th...................................
Could tie or break the record high of 89 for today.
7 day for Fort Myers
Good morning.

I think our friend Scott will like a lot this update of the subsurface waters.Compares pretty good with the 2014 warm pool.The jury is out to see if things warmup bigtime or turns out like last year being a dud.

163. MahFL
Are the radar maps not working correctly for anyone else ? eg, I can't pull up composite reflectivity maps. Thanks.
Quoting MahFL:
Are the radar maps not working correctly for anyone else ? eg, I can't pull up composite reflectivity maps. Thanks.


Just pulled this off the NWS site.


Wunderground
Quoting 160. LargoFl:

matt GFS has our rains starting around the 12th thru 15th...................................


Another line of very heavy rain formed along the seabreeze yesterday in eastern Hillsborough County extending north to Pasco and south to Manattee. It tried to work its way to my location, but had largely dissipated by then and I only got 0.08". Seems like the same thing will happen again today; dewpoints are already in the high 60s. Early start to summer I guess.
CFSv2 & the updated Euro for April on the paid site has Super El-Nino in place this Fall. This is just down right ridiculous.

November
Quoting 162. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

I think our friend Scott will like a lot this update of the subsurface waters.Compares pretty good with the 2014 warm pool.The jury is out to see if things warmup bigtime or turns out like last year being a dud.




Not surprised and it will be interesting to see what happens as the CFS has a massive WWB come the first to second week of May. Infact looks bigger than the one we had in March this is something we did not see in 2014 continuously and is likely the reason for the recent cooling in Nino 1&2 as a increase in easterly trades is normal out in advance of these big Wind Burst.
169. MahFL
I get the same image for all the different radar slices on the wunderground site.
OZ Euro has a spectacular severe weather event setting up for Texas up to Arkansas later this weekend into early next week. Everyone is talking about mid week but it seems the real deal is this event likely setting up in Texas up to Arkansas down the road.

06Z GFS showing some much needed rains across FL this weekend thru most of next week. The Wet Season trying to get going or just a wet pattern setting in for a week or so only to lead up to another dry period? Well see.



Spring is over and Summer is beginning it appears. Very little cool weather this past Winter in C & S FL. Winter seems to be less and less each year.

Orlando
Quoting 154. vis0:

Just watching this bah...lah...

image host


On a weather not related subject, ...i guess too late for the 1st of this month...
image host

Those are actually pretty cool. how can I buy haha
GEOS-5 shows some showers here & there across FL but not near as much as GFS.

Looking at severe weather..

Thursday Night /Friday early


Monday Night/ Tuesday


Wednesday
Quoting 174. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 shows some showers here & there across FL but not near as much as GFS.

Looking at severe weather..

Thursday Night /Friday early


Monday Night/ Tuesday


Wednesday



Euro really sticks it to Texas. Model is the outliner though but that needs to be watched because if the Euro pans out then we could see a high risk area issued for Eastern Texas up to Arkansas. Very dangerous set up on the Euro. other models aren't as sharp with the trough coming out of the SW US. Well see if the Euro backs closer to the GFS.
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:



Just pulled this off the NWS site.


Wunderground





Yikes! That's producing golf ball sized hail and it's heading my way!
GFS Far out but still interesting. Looks dangerous.

Good Morning; here is the NWS headline for today and short-term WPC forecast for Conus:


Dangerous fire weather conditions continue across the Southwest as severe weather risk increases for central U.S. for midweek

Warm temperatures, dry fuels, gusty winds and humidity values in the single digits will keep dangerous fire weather conditions in the Southwest through Thursday. In addition, conditions continue to look favorable for a significant severe weather event for the central U.S. starting Wednesday. Locally damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. A Slight Risk is already in place. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 AM EDT Tue Apr 07 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2015 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2015

...Heavy rainfall and severe weather is likely across the Southern/Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will support an enhanced wildfire risk
across the Four Corners and Southern High Plains...

...Well above normal temperatures to prevail from the Southern Plains to
the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes...


It will be quite an active weather pattern during the week with wintry
precipitation, flash flooding, severe weather, and an enhanced wildfire
risk all in the forecast through Thursday morning. The culprit is a strong
upper trough currently working its way through Northern California.
Enhanced moisture surging into California will spread precipitation to the
region which is a welcome sight given the prolonged drought conditions.
The WPC winter weather desk is forecasting 6 to 12 inches of snow across
the Central Sierra Nevada range with even heavier amounts farther inland
across the Ruby Mountains of northeastern Nevada.

As is common with an upper trough ejecting out of the southwestern U.S., a
persistent dry line will be in place across the Southern/Central Plains.
Observations west of the dry line show very low relative humidity values
accompanied by warm, gusty winds. This dangerous combination has led to a
slew of red flag warnings being issued by the local forecast offices
across the Four Corners region and Southern High Plains. In addition to
the enhanced wildfire danger, a threat for severe weather and flash
flooding exists by mid-week. The combination of a strong upper trough
ejecting toward the High Plains with enhanced Gulf moisture and large
amounts of instability will set the stages for severe thunderstorm
activity across the Southern/Central Plains. Currently the Storm
Prediction Center has outlined an area from Central Oklahoma up through
much of Missouri and western Illinois in a slight risk for severe weather
from Wednesday morning through the following morning. Meanwhile, the
threat will eventually transition into a heavy rainfall event with
possible flash flooding. The excessive rainfall forecast from WPC suggests
this is most likely from Northern Missouri eastward to the Ohio Valley. Of
course the latter location just experienced flash flooding within the past
week so the saturated grounds will make any additional heavy rainfall a
potential issue this week.

A west-to-east frontal zone currently stretching from lower New England
back through the Ohio Valley and into the Middle Mississippi Valley has
been a focus for a strong temperature gradient and overrunning
precipitation. This has allowed some light snow to fall over interior New
England while south of the boundary showers and thunderstorms continue to
fire in the unstable air. This sharp temperature gradient will support
rather pronounced anomalies with readings 15 to 20 degrees above normal in
the warm sector while the back-door cold front ushers in much colder air
to the north. This boundary will take temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic
from the low/mid 70s down into the upper 40s/low 50s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

Ikola
And the current look; that Low that will elevate the severe weather potential for tomorrow in the mid-west is pushing ashore in North CA at the moment:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic
needed rain yesterday morning. it was getting dry e cen florida
182. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, thru University of Washington
D&T:: (forgot to include on anigif) 201504-07;0015_201504-07;1215UTC (for EDT-4hrs)
SUBJECT:: Observing wxActivities within contiguous USofA

image host
Help yourself ...

Drought-Stricken California Residents Scramble For Rain Barrels To Save Tuesday’s Storm
April 6, 2015 10:49 PM
SACRAMENTO (CBS13) — California’s emergency drought measures are turning into a boom for businesses that help homeowners save rainwater, including the rain from Tuesday’s storm.
Even though storms have been few and far between, the rain barrel business is starting to flourish, because even a little rain can go a long way.
Davis Montijo watered his plants on Monday with rainwater he collected weeks ago.
“It’s a big deal when it rains right now,” he said.
He built his rain recycler system himself by installing piping along his house that collects rainwater off of his roof, and a pump helps direct it through his garden hose.
“It’s an incredible amount of water we get from the rain,” he said. “It’s like 18,000 gallons off my roof alone this year, and we’ve only had 2 storms.”
Montijo says it only takes half an inch of rain to fill an 1,100 gallon tank overnight.
Clyde Froehlich says the rain doesn’t put a damper on his online business, Blue Barrel Systems, where he sells do-it-yourself rain barrel kits. He says sales have shot up since Gov. Jerry Brown ordered a mandatory 25 percent cut in usage. ...


Haiti floods kill six, damage thousands of homes
by: Associated Free Press - April 7, 2015
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AFP) –The first heavy rains of the wet season flooded parts of the Haitian capital Port-au-Price over the weekend, leaving at least six dead and damaging 8,000 homes, authorities said Monday.
Raging floodwaters swept two children aged three and seven to their deaths in the Delmas district of the capital, and a 24-year-old woman was killed when a church wall collapsed on her house.
Three more people died in the western, coastal Carrefour district of the city. ..


Storm In Bangladesh Kills 41 and Injured Hundreds
NP, 7 Apr 2015
DHAKA – As many as 41 people were reported killed as a powerful storm hit the northwest part of Bangladesh on Monday morning.
Victim bodies were recovered by the rescuers and villagers after the storm calm down. The storms crushed thousands of houses, uprooted several trees and electricity poles.
Quoting 184. JrWeathermanFL:



My area got the right-front quadrant from Erin. Pensacola got the eye. Pretty well formed cyclone at landfall there.
Quoting 157. wunderkidcayman:

Lol it's falls as quick as it had risen


And it will rise again in a few days. -_- what's your point?
well...i'm reading the web this morning about el nino....and a "respected" meteorologist ran a newspaper article including a hodgepodge of stories of which one was that the cpc is predicting an el nino strength of 1.6 to 1.8 c come this summer....so yeah.....my curiosity is peaked...and i follow the link he provides as proof...and it takes me to monday's cpc weekly report of which there is no such thing......the closest is their comment that there is a 50 - 60 percent chance of el nino to continue through summer of 2015....so i go to the comment section and ask what i'm missing and repeat the summer comment above.....i don't see a reference to that at all.....of which...the good "respected" met answers me.....i'm thrilled...and he tells me....it's right there in the cfsv2 graph.....i reply...that's a model.....known for its warm bias.....and in a time of inaccurate forecasts called the spring barrier...and also state....that's a tool they use for a forecast but not the forecast itself....to wit the "respected" met answers me again......explaining that basically i'm an idiot and don't have the 35 years of experience that he does and so he is better qualified to explain what the cpc is stating in their weekly report than i am and that the reason they post the cfsv2 model in their outlook is due to its quality and that's why they include it so i should trust it.....so i retort..that if 35 years can only produce a "freaking idiot"....hopefully in another thirty five years he'll only be an "idiot"..and if i should trust what they include in their report...then i guess the bigger story is we're heading into LA NINA this summer as that's what one of the model runs depicted in the enso plume of models suggests.......because of course...they would only show it if it's a quality product and accurate....

i'm banned there now
And it will rise again in a few days. -_- what's your point?


it should rise again....and i put the emphasis on SHOULD......as we SHOULD have seen a rise in all quadrants.....sice we had....

a MJO that was off the scale...

Multiple westerly wind bursts including a period that was the strongest in a decade....

Multiple tropical systems in the western pacific.....

all of which we were told by bloggers and a few mets....that what we were seeing was a mirror image of el ninio '97/98 and as such would inflate enso values to ridiculous numbers.....

but in actuality....except for the ENSO 1/2 region....we've seen a decline in values

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
LAKE COUNTY TODAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC TODAY...
TENDING TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

ANY STORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
HEAD INDOORS IF SKIES BEGIN TO LOOK THREATENING.

Quoting 189. ricderr:

And it will rise again in a few days. -_- what's your point?


it should rise again....and i put the emphasis on SHOULD......as we SHOULD have seen a rise in all quadrants.....sice we had....

a MJO that was off the scale...

Multiple westerly wind bursts including a period that was the strongest in a decade....

Multiple tropical systems in the western pacific.....

all of which we were told by bloggers and a few mets....that what we were seeing was a mirror image of el ninio '97/98 and as such would inflate enso values to ridiculous numbers.....

but in actuality....except for the ENSO 1/2 region....we've seen a decline in values
Im out! Not doing this again.
The HRRR model is showing a good coverage of seabreeze storms today in the Tampa Bay area, with the heaviest rain focusing on the same area as yesterday.
Quoting 192. tampabaymatt:

The HRRR model is showing a good coverage of seabreeze storms today in the Tampa Bay area, with the heaviest rain focusing on the same area as yesterday.


Model even is showing some pretty robust convection over Orlando too. Infact showers popping up now just a few miles east of me.
Quoting 186. opal92nwf:


My area got the right-front quadrant from Erin. Pensacola got the eye. Pretty well formed cyclone at landfall there.
Good thing it was moving fast, it was intensifying rapidly.
Im out! Not doing this again.


Quoting 188. ricderr:

well...i'm reading the web this morning about el nino....and a "respected" meteorologist ran a newspaper article including a hodgepodge of stories of which one was that the cpc is predicting an el nino strength of 1.6 to 1.8 c come this summer....so yeah.....my curiosity is peaked...and i follow the link he provides as proof...and it takes me to monday's cpc weekly report of which there is no such thing......the closest is their comment that there is a 50 - 60 percent chance of el nino to continue through summer of 2015....so i go to the comment section and ask what i'm missing and repeat the summer comment above.....i don't see a reference to that at all.....of which...the good "respected" met answers me.....i'm thrilled...and he tells me....it's right there in the cfsv2 graph.....i reply...that's a model.....known for its warm bias.....and in a time of inaccurate forecasts called the spring barrier...and also state....that's a tool they use for a forecast but not the forecast itself....to wit the "respected" met answers me again......explaining that basically i'm an idiot and don't have the 35 years of experience that he does and so he is better qualified to explain what the cpc is stating in their weekly report than i am and that the reason they post the cfsv2 model in their outlook is due to its quality and that's why they include it so i should trust it.....so i retort..that if 35 years can only produce a "freaking idiot"....hopefully in another thirty five years he'll only be an "idiot"..and if i should trust what they include in their report...then i guess the bigger story is we're heading into LA NINA this summer as that's what one of the model runs depicted in the enso plume of models suggests.......because of course...they would only show it if it's a quality product and accurate....

i'm banned there now


You think the CFSv2 & Euro are high then you might want to see some of these other models that are updating for April on the NMME site. Some models are even higher than the CFSv2 & Euro. Again Spring Barrier but we are about to head out of this Barrier over the coming weeks so it will be interesting to see if these trends continue.
Quoting tampabaymatt:
The HRRR model is showing a good coverage of seabreeze storms today in the Tampa Bay area, with the heaviest rain focusing on the same area as yesterday.


Dewpoints are getting up there. They're still not up to summer/rainy season numbers (mid 70s), but it's still pretty humid for April.

High today here is expected to be near 90. The combination should be able to fire off a few showers.

Cumulus clouds already building across inland areas.


Dewpoints
calif is getting most of the new but Taiwan is going through a long term drought also
Pretty impressive Bow Echo just south of St.Louis.
You think the CFSv2 & Euro are high then you might want to see some of these other models that are updating for April on the NMME site. Some models are even higher than the CFSv2 & Euro. Again Spring Barrier but we are about to head out of this Barrier over the coming weeks so it will be interesting to see if these trends continue.


we've still got about 6 weeks to go...although i want to look up the june plume of models from last year and see how they faired....by the way....can you hit the link of the nmme...as i only can pull up the model runs from march
Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:



Dewpoints are getting up there. They're still not up to summer/rainy season numbers (mid 70s), but it's still pretty humid for April.

High today here is expected to be near 90. The combination should be able to fire off a few showers.

Cumulus clouds already building across inland areas.


Dewpoints





Very high dewpoints here as well. Should easily get to 70 with further daytime heating.
here's the june 2014 model plume....now truth be told...to my eyes...i think it is the gfdl that actually....appears to be spot on.....

Foggy start this morning in S C IL. Edge of the yellow/orange to the N of the big red line moving thru StL into Metro East about to arrive here, so far just drizzle. Don't see any lightning on WU radar associated w/ StL line. Hear any Tim? Radio station I'm listening to said raining very hard downtown.

We're at 60, 100% RH, around 30", barely any S-SE wind. Still just drizzle, maybe picking up a little.

ILwthr must have been having The Chief do rain dances (since he can't dance for the Illini anymore), saw a model w/ a big X near him and 5+". We sure don't need that much, but sounds like they could use it in E C IL (just not all at once). I've heard we may get 3", that would be more than enough.
Quoting 202. ricderr:

here's the june 2014 model plume....now truth be told...to my eyes...i think it is the gfdl that actually....appears to be spot on.....




Here is the GFDL below for ENSO 3.4



Pretty exciting night here. Montgomery, 75 miles north of me, got 1.30" and had areal flood warnings out for a while. Columbus, GA, 50 miles north of me got 0.72" and some good thunderstorms. The rain started here about 11:00. I had two puddles in the driveway that were threatening to merge into one...but then the rain stopped. I got a whopping 0.19". Better than nothing but, fer cryin' out loud, why can't I get an inch occasionally? The main effect today is to turn my backyard into a free sauna bath. The temperature is 85 with a dewpoint of 71. If only we had some kind of forcing mechanism...
i think this is a good representation of the springtime barrier......in june...the gfdl model run closely portrayed enso conditions to date....however....take a look at what it was predicting just two months prior......it actually was forecasting the highest enso anomalies...which of course we know was wrong....what a huge difference in just two months



Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 1h 1 hour ago

ECMWF worshipers should remember it is not the king in Atlantic anymore--GFS and ensemble has been better since 2012.
Here is the GFDL below for ENSO 3.4


thanx scott...but from what i understand...that's march
Quoting dabirds:
Foggy start this morning in S C IL. Edge of the yellow/orange to the N of the big red line moving thru StL into Metro East about to arrive here, so far just drizzle. Don't see any lightning on WU radar associated w/ StL line. Hear any Tim? Radio station I'm listening to said raining very hard downtown.

We're at 60, 100% RH, around 30", barely any S-SE wind. Still just drizzle, maybe picking up a little.

ILwthr must have been having The Chief do rain dances (since he can't dance for the Illini anymore), saw a model w/ a big X near him and 5+". We sure don't need that much, but sounds like they could use it in E C IL (just not all at once). I've heard we may get 3", that would be more than enough.
There's a ton of lightning on an axis from east central MO NE into IL.. Looks like those storms are moving in your direction. Heavy rain with the embedded cells so things should get more interesting for you over the next couple of hours.
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Pretty exciting night here. Montgomery, 75 miles north of me, got 1.30" and had areal flood warnings out for a while. Columbus, GA, 50 miles north of me got 0.72" and some good thunderstorms. The rain started here about 11:00. I had two puddles in the driveway that were threatening to merge into one...but then the rain stopped. I got a whopping 0.19". Better than nothing but, fer cryin' out loud, why can't I get an inch occasionally? The main effect today is to turn my backyard into a free sauna bath. The temperature is 85 with a dewpoint of 71. If only we had some kind of forcing mechanism...


The WPC shows a lot of rain for your location starting on Friday into early the following week.
Quoting 210. tampabaymatt:



The WPC shows a lot of rain for your location starting on Friday into early the following week.


Us here in FL too. Looking at some rain forming just east of me now. Very humid as well with dewpoints around 70. Question today is will the thermal cap break and allow for thunderstorms to form?
scott...here's the model you posted and also the mid march enso plume of models....not the means.....they are the same



Flash Flood Warning for the St. Louis area.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1053 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1050 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN
FROM JUST EAST OF SULLIVAN TO NEAR CEDAR HILL SINCE 930AM...WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THIS AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANTONIA...ARNOLD...BARNHART...BOURBON...CEDAR HILL...CRYSTAL
CITY...DE SOTO...FESTUS...HERCULANEUM...HILLSBORO...PEVELY.. .ST.
CLAIR...SULLIVAN...WATERLOO...DITTMER...FOUNTAIN.. .LONEDELL...
PARKWAY...RICHWOODS AND VALMEYER.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES GOV. DUNKLIN'S GRAVE HISTORIC SITE...MASTODON
HISTORIC SITE...MERAMEC STATE PARK...ROBERTSVILLE STATE PARK AND
SANDY CREEK COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 44 FROM EXIT 218 TO EXIT 240.
INTERSTATE 55 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 170 TO EXIT 191.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Finally getting some precipitation down into central California. Hopefully the system holds together and continues working its way to the south.

Quoting 209. sar2401:

There's a ton of lightning on an axis from east central MO NE into IL.. Looks like those storms are moving in your direction. Heavy rain with the embedded cells so things should get more interesting for you over the next couple of hours.



There's been quite a bit of lightning here too. I'd say i got over an inch of rain in the past few hours or so. I'm on the north end of that bow echo so it's pretty dark outside.
Quoting 203. dabirds:

Foggy start this morning in S C IL. Edge of the yellow/orange to the N of the big red line moving thru StL into Metro East about to arrive here, so far just drizzle. Don't see any lightning on WU radar associated w/ StL line. Hear any Tim? Radio station I'm listening to said raining very hard downtown.

We're at 60, 100% RH, around 30", barely any S-SE wind. Still just drizzle, maybe picking up a little.

ILwthr must have been having The Chief do rain dances (since he can't dance for the Illini anymore), saw a model w/ a big X near him and 5+". We sure don't need that much, but sounds like they could use it in E C IL (just not all at once). I've heard we may get 3", that would be more than enough.



It was indeed pouring down raining! Lightning every few seconds as well. I estimate over an inch has fallen in the last hour.
West coast sea breeze should become active later this afternoon.

Quoting 209. sar2401:

There's a ton of lightning on an axis from east central MO NE into IL.. Looks like those storms are moving in your direction. Heavy rain with the embedded cells so things should get more interesting for you over the next couple of hours.
Looked like it should have some, but both StL & Lincoln WU radar didn't have any showing up, guess it's not working. Hasn't been any w/ the blob over us that's above the line in the metro East, but did start raining, starting to get some ditch flow now. Could see brightness to my N though looking at satellite, not sure why, other than opening moving out of IA, that's a long way from here, but..?
Quoting dabirds:
Looked like it should have some, but both StL & Lincoln WU radar didn't have any showing up, guess it's not working. Hasn't been any w/ the blob over us that's above the line in the metro East, but did start raining, starting to get some ditch flow now. Could see brightness to my N though looking at satellite, not sure why, other than opening moving out of IA, that's a long way from here, but..?
No offense to the folks who do the programming here but the lightning depiction on the WU radar has been "experimental" for years and still doesn't work right. I find this this web based lightning detector to be much more useful. As you'll see, the lightning activity in south central IL is pretty impressive.
Quoting 216. TimTheWxMan:




It was indeed pouring down raining! Lightning every few seconds as well. I estimate over an inch has fallen in the last hour.
Ok, so they're not working, at least for me. Sure looked like it should have lightning. None up here though. Bright spot dimmed somewhat, but is in NW, so probably that opening in cloud deck in E IA moving into Quincy/Quad Cities. Very dark to SW though.
Quoting 220. dabirds:

Ok, so they're not working, at least for me. Sure looked like it should have lightning. None up here though. Bright spot dimmed somewhat, but is in NW, so probably that opening in cloud deck in E IA moving into Quincy/Quad Cities.


The rain's beginning to move out of my area. There are lots of reports of standing water on the roads. That hailstorm this morning would've hit me had it not turned right.
Got a severe thunderstorm watch until 200pm right now.

Happy. :P
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The WPC shows a lot of rain for your location starting on Friday into early the following week.
The WPC has shown lots of rain for me for the last two weeks and the 0.19" last night has been the sum total for that period. There has been a sharp cutoff in rainfall between north and south Alabama, and the WPC depicts it pretty well. I'm right in the darker blue at the border between SE AL and SW GA, so I guess (I'm a little color blind) that's between 0.75" and and an inch. Might get that if the cold front Friday holds together but, so far, none of them have. These "southern stream" storms have actually been focused more in the upper Midwest, just as this next low will be. As long as the low ends up that far north, the dynamics favor maybe far NW AL for storms, but nothing this far south. On one hand, it will save me from any severe storms, but it also limits the chances of any substantial rain.


showing 30% chance of rain here, 57.1F
Quoting sar2401:
The WPC has shown lots of rain for me for the last two weeks and the 0.19" last night has been the sum total for that period. There has been a sharp cutoff in rainfall between north and south Alabama, and the WPC depicts it pretty well. I'm right in the darker blue at the border between SE AL and SW GA, so I guess (I'm a little color blind) that's between 0.75" and and an inch. Might get that if the cold front Friday holds together but, so far, none of them have. These "southern stream" storms have actually been focused more in the upper Midwest, just as this next low will be. As long as the low ends up that far north, the dynamics favor maybe far NW AL for storms, but nothing this far south. On one hand, it will save me from any severe storms, but it also limits the chances of any substantial rain.



I am in the red 3-4"
Quoting 219. sar2401:

No offense to the folks who do the programming here but the lightning depiction on the WU radar has been "experimental" for years and still doesn't work right. I find this this web based lightning detector to be much more useful. As you'll see, the lightning activity in south central IL is pretty impressive.
Showing some N of 70, E of 55, but sure haven't heard it here. Pretty impressive cluster S of 70 though.

Still raining here, but not hard & getting a lot brighter to the NW. Will check gauge at lunch, should be about done by 12:30. Edit: Well what do you know, finally got a rumble!
Quoting 222. 62901IL:

Got a severe thunderstorm watch until 200pm right now.

Happy. :P


Same here but they'll probably drop it once that bow echo leaves the area.
what the odd one out going la nina mid sept? mdr has plenty time to warm up
Quoting dabirds:
Showing some N of 70, E of 55, but sure haven't heard it here. Pretty impressive cluster S of 70 though.

Still raining here, but not hard & getting a lot brighter to the NW. Will check gauge at lunch, should be about done by 12:30.
It looks like you're kind of in the middle between the two biggest clusters which is why you're only seeing rain. Keep an eye on that stationary front that's draped across central IL right now. That will turn into a warm front sometime between 7:00 and noon tomorrow. The trough should travel along that front, and it should be over you Wednesday afternoon. As the warm front moves north you're going to be in exactly the right place to see the cap get busted, temperatures and humidity to rise quickly, and storms start to initiate. I think the area between Tim and you has the greatest risk for at least large hail and 60-70 mph straight line winds.
Upcoming Cape
El Niño is one of these naturally occurring phenomena. The term El Niño (the Christ child) comes from the name Paita sailors called a periodic ocean current because it was observed to appear usually immediately after Christmas. It marked a time with poor fishing conditions as the nutrient rich water off the northwest coast of South America remained very deep. However, over land, this ocean current brought heavy rains in very dry regions which produced luxurious vegetation.

The locations of Tahiti and Darwin, AustraliaFurther research found that El Niño is actually part of a much larger global variation in the atmosphere called ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). The Southern Oscillation refers to changes in sea level air pressure patterns in the Southern Pacific Ocean between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

During El Niño conditions, the average air pressure is higher in Darwin than in Tahiti. Therefore, the change in air pressures in the South Pacific and water temperature in the East Pacific ocean, 8000 miles away, are related.






Link for loop.

The two graphs shown below illustrate the correlation. The top graph shows the change in water temperature from normal for Niño 3.4. The bottom graph shows the southern oscillation index for the same period. When the pressure in Tahiti is lower than Darwin, Australia the temperature in Niño 3.4 is higher than normal and El Niño is occurring; the warm episode of ENSO.



Conversely, when the pressure in Tahiti is higher than Darwin, Australia the temperature in Niño 3.4 is lower than normal and La Niña is occurring; the cool episode of ENSO.

What is surprising is these changes in sea surface temperatures are not large, plus or minus 6°F (3°C) and generally much less. However these minor changes can have large effects our global weather patterns.



Forecast for Darwin International and Papeete Airport, Tahiti

For those keeping track, use those station pressures and see what the trends are like, that may be your indicator if the atmosphere is responding.
Quoting PedleyCA:

showing 30% chance of rain here, 57.1F
That incoming band of showers looks like it wants to stretch out south so you might actually see some rain. It won't be a gully washer but it might be at least enough to settle the dust. California is actually in a pretty good place to see some rain over the next week. As usual, most of it will be up north but I don't think southern California gets left out completely this time.
Quoting 219. sar2401:

No offense to the folks who do the programming here but the lightning depiction on the WU radar has been "experimental" for years and still doesn't work right. I find this this web based lightning detector to be much more useful. As you'll see, the lightning activity in south central IL is pretty impressive.



Excellent link Sar!
I never saw a forecast like that since Hurricane Rick 2009:


So agressive!
pablosyn:



Rodrigues Island needs to prepare for the worst of Joalane
New post on the severe weather this morning.

Link
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Upcoming Cape


5000 JKG?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Same here but they'll probably drop it once that bow echo leaves the area.


As of 12pm, you are not under a severe thunderstorm watch.

Quoting pablosyn:
I never saw a forecast like that since Hurricane Rick 2009:


So agressive!


Could become strong. That's for sure.






This map would look happier if there was a severe thunderstorm warning (or two) on it.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Excellent link Sar!
It's a pretty neat site and it's all maintained by volunteers. Although the site is in Germany and Europe is the focus, the coverage for the US is still pretty good. Some of the controls aren't very obvious though. The best way to use the site is to select the Live Overview map with the "Map" selected in the upper right corner. Double left click zooms in and double right click zooms out. You can move around the map by holding the left mouse button and dragging. The numbers inside each box are the total lighting strikes in the last 20 minutes. I'd like to get one of their detector units and get on the network but they won't be available until summer when they've completed a hardware upgrade.
Not sure if any of you have seen this.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1007 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-MOZ076-086-087-071 800-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...JONESBORO...VIEN NA...
PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU
1007 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CDT FOR
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE SAINT LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL FROM ONE QUARTER TO NEAR TWO AND A
QUARTER INCHES IN SIZE AS THEY MOVED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SOME REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE WERE REPORTED AS WELL.

THE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST...SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 25
MPH. SHOULD THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE AT THIS SPEED...THEY WILL
REACH PARTS OF NORTHWEST PERRY COUNTY ILLINOIS...EAST OF
COULTERVILLE ILLINOIS BETWEEN 1215 PM AND 1230 PM CDT AND NEAR
SAINT MARY IN NORTHWEST PERRY COUNTY MISSOURI BEFORE 1 PM CDT.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE STORMS OVER THE SAINT LOUIS AREA
MAY MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...IMPACTING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERICAL TELEVISION AND
RADIO...AS WELL AS INTERNET FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...FORECASTS...STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Quoting 238. sar2401:

It's a pretty neat site and it's all maintained by volunteers. Although the site is in Germany and Europe is the focus, the coverage for the US is still pretty good. Some of the controls aren't very obvious though. The best way to use the site is to select the Live Overview map with the "Map" selected in the upper right corner. Double left click zooms in and double right click zooms out. You can move around the map by holding the left mouse button and dragging. The numbers inside each box are the total lighting strikes in the last 20 minutes. I'd like to get one of their detector units and get on the network but they won't be available until summer when they've completed a hardware upgrade.


By the way, thanks so much for posting that link to the weather balloon soundings. I have been looking everywhere for something like that, but could never find anything. That site is great!


Paducah radar.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
SPC outlook.

Quoting 235. HadesGodWyvern:



Rodrigues Island needs to prepare for the worst of Joalane


Yes, 2 days ago i said this because the Euro was showing a powerful system to threat this areas...we're almost confirming this possibility. So Joalane can be the 5th category 5 of year LOL so far and i think that this season will be the first ever recorded with 3 category 5 tropical cyclones (South West Indian Ocean).
Amazing.
:)



Click image for watch info
Homeland Security Dept.: Terrorism not suspected in DC outage

A power outage reportedly affected much of Washington D.C. on Tuesday, including White House and the State Department facilities. (Tweet This)

Pepco, the D.C. electric services provider, said it had scattered reports of outages for "unknown" reasons, and that it was looking into the matter. The utility said in a 1:15 p.m. ET update that it had recorded 111 active outages and 2,467 affected customers (which include buildings and office spaces).

Some metro stations in Washington were running on emergency lighting, according to the city's transportation authority. Several area museums were affected by the outage. The National Portrait Gallery, the Air and Space Museum and others were evacuated, the Smithsonian Institution said in a tweet.
The Department of Homeland Security officials said they were looking into the outage, but believed at this time that there is no reason to believe it has any connection to terror or criminal activity.

The University of Maryland also said that it suffered a campus-wide power outage.

The State Department's daily news briefing was suspended after power was lost. A department announcement said the main building and other nearby buildings were affected because electricity feeders were down.

The U.S. Capitol complex was operating using a backup generator, one congressional aide said.

The State Department suffered a similar outage on December 15, which Pepco blamed on construction at the time.



Alex Mallin @alex_mallin
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.@marieharf having to shine phone light on reporters asking questions here.



Frenchy @TheFrenchyze
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Campus power outage party in front of McKeldin!!!!!
Quoting 234. pablosyn:

I never saw a forecast like that since Hurricane Rick 2009:


Very aggressive. This is spectacular!

Thanks for the up date,Mr Henson.

This is Oxnard, CA They have an 80% chance of rain.
Blog took a nap there for 1 hour 40 minutes.