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California’s Deepening Drought: Ten Things to Know

By: Bob Henson 4:54 PM GMT on April 02, 2015

California’s four-year struggle with drought entered an ominous new phase on Wednesday, as the California Department of Water Resources conducted its annual April 1 survey of the crucial Sierra snowpack. Runoff from snowmelt across the Sierra Nevada provides about 30% of the state’s average water supply. Nobody expected good numbers to emerge from the April 1 survey, given the obvious lack of snow across the Sierra, but the report was still a shocker. As the agency put it in its headline, without any need to exaggerate, “Sierra Nevada Snowpack is Virtually Gone.”


Figure 1. A study in high contrast: the Sierra snow survey being conducted at the Phillips course on March 28, 2013 (top) and April 1, 2015, with California governor Jerry Brown addressing reporters (bottom). Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.


As of Wednesday, the snowpack held just 1.4 inches of water--only about 5% of its usual water content for the date, compared to a previous record low of 25% in both 1977 and 2014. At the Phillips snow course (elevation 6800 feet), the ground was completely bare for the first time in 75 years of early-April measurement. In a typical year, that course would be covered by more than five feet of snow. California’s wet season is rapidly drawing to a close, so there’s little hope of any major recovery in the snowpack, which is dwindling fast at a time when it ought to be peaking (see Figure 2).

In a press conference linked to the survey results, California governor Jerry Brown announced the state’s first-ever mandatory water restrictions, including a 25% statewide cut in municipal water use compared to 2013 usage. California is the nation’s most populous state and the world’s eighth-largest economy, so the drought and its implications will be major news for many weeks and months to come. What are some of the key take-away points for now?

•  This winter has not been the driest in California history. Some 40% of California’s precipitation comes in the form of powerful “atmospheric river” storm systems, separated by long dry spells. This year the divide was especially sharp, with a sequence of storms in December and another in February providing the great bulk of this winter’s rain and snow. Across most of the state, these storms were bountiful enough to push precipitation totals for the water year to date (October 1 - March 31) somewhat higher than the values seen over the same period in 2013-14, though still below average. The totals through March 31 were roughly 70 - 90% of average across northern California, 50 - 80% in central CA, and 40 - 60% in the south. San Francisco’s wet December (11.70”) obscures the fact that downtown SF followed up with its driest January-to-March in 156 years of record keeping. As noted by Bay Area consulting meteorologist Jan Null, only 1.59” fell, compared to the previous record of 2.31” set in 2013. (The next driest Jan-Mar was 3.20” in 1851.)


Figure 2. The already-pathetic snowpack in the Sierra Nevada has been dropping just at the time it would be peaking in a typical year. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.


• This winter has been the warmest in California weather history, by far. On a statewide level, what’s truly historic hasn’t been the lack of precipitation but the extremely mild temperatures. According to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for California during meteorological winter (Dec - Feb) of 49.5°F was far above the previous winter record of 47.2°F, set in 1980-81. Most recently, towns and cities across the state shattered records for their warmest March, including Sacramento as well as many reporting stations in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas.



Figure 3. Temperatures averaged well above normal across most of the western U.S. in March. Image credit: Western Regional Climate Center.


• The “snow drought” is truly off the charts. This winter’s extreme mildness meant that much of the usual snowfall over the Sierra Nevada either arrived as rain or melted quickly. Never in its recorded history has the Sierra ended up with so little snow by winter’s end. Most of the ski areas in the Lake Tahoe region were closed by mid-March, weeks ahead of schedule. Some high-elevation rivers and streams will struggle to avoid running completely dry this year.

• Reservoirs are fuller than you might expect--but not for long. Thanks in large part to the unusually sizable fraction of rain vs. snow in the Sierra, reservoirs benefited from generous winter runoff, although most are still well below average (see Figure 4). According to Jan Null, the state’s reservoirs as a whole are now about 5% closer to full capacity than they were on June 30 of last year. Alas, the current numbers should drop more quickly than usual this spring, since there will be very little snowmelt to replenish the reservoirs.


Figure 4. Reservoirs across California (blue levels) were running well below capacity (top of bars) and historical averages (red lines). Blue values below each reservoir show the percent of capacity; red values show the percent of long-term average. Image credit: Western Regional Climate Center.


• High-elevation fires could be ferocious this summer. California’s lower-elevation grassland and shrubland fires tend to be at their worst when a wet year fosters growth that dries out over the following year. It’s a somewhat different picture in the high-elevation forests of the Sierra, where unusually dry, warm conditions in springtime are the main factor setting the stage for summer wildfire. The lack of snowpack and the persistent record heat suggest that a very serious wildfire risk could emerge at higher altitudes this summer. In its spring/summer outlook issued on Wednesday, the National Interagency Fire Center projected above-average wildland fire risk by June and July across western Idaho, southwest Arizona, and most of California, Oregon, and Washington. “The current drought is very likely going to increase the number and severity of fires in the mountains, but will likely reduce fire activity in the foothills due to reduced grass growth,” USGS research scientist and Sierra fire expert Jon Keeley told me in an email.

• Agriculture may face a year of reckoning. Some 80% of California’s developed water supply is used by agriculture, and the recent drought has prompted many growers to pump from groundwater at increasing rates. The state has lagged in forcing public disclosure of groundwater use, so it’s hard to assess how quickly the aquifers are being depleted, but any natural recharge will take many years, and the cost of pumping goes up significantly as the water table goes down. The state’s Mediterranean climate, with its wet, mild winters and dry, warm summers, is ideal for growing a huge array of crops, but some are far more water-thirsty than others, and irrigation techniques (such as flooding an entire field vs. using drip lines) make a huge difference in how much water is needed. This year may force large segments of California agriculture to confront hard choices.

•  Other parts of the Southwest are also contending with serious drought. Unlike California, the Southwest has been in near-continuous drought since 2000, with only modest spells of relief. Nevada’s Lake Mead, which provides water to Las Vegas as well as Los Angeles, continues to be far below capacity, and projections are that the lake level will hit another record low this spring, following a record low last summer. With snowpack across the upper Colorado River basin again less than average, Arizona’s Lake Powell (Figure 5, below) is also expected to remain close to its record lows. The decline in both lakes is prompting serious long-term concern about water and power availability throughout the region.


Figure 5. “Bathtub ring” water lines are visible on March 30, 2015, on a section of Lake Powell formerly under water near Big Water, Utah. Lake Powell is currently at 45 percent of capacity and is projected to recover only slightly this year, ending up near 47 percent of capacity by September. The Colorado River Basin supplies water to 40 million people in seven western states. Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.


• Even a strong El Niño may not save the day. For more than a year, Californians have been teased by the off-and-on signals that a major El Niño event could bring a wet year to the state. Computer models are now increasingly emphatic that El Niño conditions will intensify to at least moderate levels by summer, and climatology would favor any such event growing during the fall and winter. But while strong El Niño events do raise the odds of a wet winter substantially, a drier-than-average year is still possible, and weak-to-moderate El Niño events have a much less consistent influence.

•  There’s really no telling how long the drought will last. Paleoclimatology tells us that megadroughts lasting one to several decades--even centuries--have struck California over the last 1200 years. The factors that produce such long-lived drought have yet to be nailed down, although some research has pointed to persistent La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. Putting wishful thinking aside, policymakers and citizens must grapple with the chance that the current drought could continue for years more. What’s more, the effects of any precipitation downturn are increasingly likely to be exacerbated by above-average temperatures. As we’ll explore in an upcoming post, unusual heat is becoming the norm when California experiences long dry spells, and this raises major concerns about the impacts of future drought in a warming climate.

•  Any winter could still bring catastrophic floods to California. Paradoxical and perverse as it may seem, a warming planet tends to boost both ends of the hydrologic spectrum. Warmer air temperatures enhance evaporation from land, making dry soils even drier, while also increasing evaporation from the oceans, adding moisture to the air and increasing the ability of a given storm to dump rain or snow. When it does rain in California, it can pour--as evidenced by the devastating floods of 1861-62, which inundated much of the Central Valley and put downtown Sacramento under ten feet of water. A similar event today could produce more than $300 billion in economic impacts, according to a 2011 USGS study. New research is digging into the latest round of coordinated climate modeling (CMIP5) and what it reveals about possible changes in California hydrology. Such work is still ongoing, but one study led by Michael Warner (University of Washington), published last February in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, suggests that average winter precipitation along the North American west coast could increase by 11% to 18% by the end of the 21st century. The bump-up appears to be almost completely due to richer atmospheric moisture rather than increased winds. The study indicates that the most extreme days (as measured by vertically integrated water vapor) could see anywhere from 15% to 39% more precipitation. Thus, in a state renowned for extremes of rain and snow, there are signs that the future may hold even more “extreme extremes.”

Many thanks to Jan Null and Weather Underground historian Chris Burt for data and graphics incorporated in this post.

Bob Henson

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!!
Thanks for the update.
nice update great info guessing the state welcome line will be welcome to sunny and extremely dry California bring your own water when on vacation
Thanks Bob. Lake Powell that low, WOW!!...
Quoting 4. NttyGrtty:

Thanks Bob. Lake Powell that low, WOW!!...
here is one for ya

Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is one for ya


OMG
Thank you Mr. Henson..Mother Nature rules...

Very dry basin wide...

Thanks, Bob Henson, for the excellent comprehensive coverage and links.
and another

one more

We'll be covering the severe weather this afternoon and evening across the central states at our Wunderground live blog.

--Bob H.
Grim news for California -- but of course the climate could change any day now! One "solution" for California's water cycle problems could be for the state to require all ski areas with snow machines to run them continuously during weather cold enough to produce snow, in order to increase the snow pack and even out runoff a bit. Kind of a small bandaid, but might close the wound a little.
We'll be providing updates on the severe weather this afternoon and evening over the central states at our Wunderground live blog.
Quoting 13. CaneFreeCR:

Grim news for California -- but of course the climate could change any day now! One "solution" for California's water cycle problems could be for the state to require all ski areas with snow machines to run them continuously during weather cold enough to produce snow, in order to increase the snow pack and even out runoff a bit. Kind of a small bandaid, but might close the wound a little.
Seriously?? What do they pump into the machines to make said snow??
Thanks, Bob. This is not just a California problem. Read this article from the Las Vegas Sun about what happens if Lake Mead reaches 900 feet. It's not that Lake Mead provides water to Los Angeles. It provides some power, but the more important issue is that Lake Mead is the source of water for almost all the agriculture in the western Arizona and eastern California deserts. All those winter fruits and vegetables are dependent on how much water Lake Mead can release. The current water level is about 1090 feet, the lowest it's been since 1956. At 1,000 feet, the water intake for power water goes dry. Since Lake Mead provides almost all the electricity to Las Vegas, we can wave goodbye to bright lights on the Strip. It reaches 900 feet, we can wave goodbye to water in Las Vegas and all the water downstream. Another dry winter is going to be an emergency. Two more dry winters is going to be a disaster. All I can hope is our much heralded El Nino really shows up and storms return to California. Even flooding is not going to as bad as this continuing drought.
Quoting BobHenson:
We'll be covering the severe weather this afternoon and evening across the central states at our Wunderground live blog.

--Bob H.


Kewl!!

Sorry I won't be able to see it, though.

But hey, it ain't over till the fat lady sings, and she hasn't sung on this outbreak yet.
Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is one for ya




I think I was in one of those houseboats in the pic on the left...
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Grim news for California -- but of course the climate could change any day now! One "solution" for California's water cycle problems could be for the state to require all ski areas with snow machines to run them continuously during weather cold enough to produce snow, in order to increase the snow pack and even out runoff a bit. Kind of a small bandaid, but might close the wound a little.
That's kind of zero sum solution. They need to pump water to make snow so all that does is delay adding back the water they pumped. The number of acres used for ski areas is also tiny compared to the area of the Sierra Nevada. If anything, ski areas may not be allowed to open at all without natural snow.
Quoting 152. tlawson48:



... when piers were made of wood (or stone - which they DIDN'T move), ships were much smaller, drew less water, there were no utilities....


I was actually referring to ports that have been destroyed due to sea rises or made useless due to sea falls/land rises etc etc.
California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say.
Link
Thanks for clarifying that this is not the worst drought in the last thousand years.


Lets hope the recovery can happen as fast as it did in Texas...



Thanks for those statistics; appears from your Post that snowpack is essentially a big part of the "reserve" for that region that provides some replenishment for the reservoirs as it melts independent of the regular rainfall. Hence a big part of the problem this particular year;Never in its recorded history has the Sierra ended up with so little snow by winters end. We saw part of this coming with the jet stream pattern this year with the remarkable warmth in the Pacific NW this Winter/early Spring.

No telling how long this cycle will actually last for that region and it will have serious implications for such a large current population and the agricultural interests (with Cali veggies and other produce so often being imported around the US and other parts in the Winter months). Hopefully, the commercial interests and policy makers will put their heads together to create/take measures that will help mitigate some of these major losses and looks at alternatives if this becomes a long-term issue.

A great example, within the very large national borders of Conus, of the impacts of regional climate/weather issues.





Quoting 7. hydrus:

Thank you Mr. Henson..Mother Nature rules...



No worries. I'm sure someone in Congress will soon introduce legistation to put Ma Nature in her place.
Good news for CA.

"The first in a series of frontal systems is forecast to move onshore Saturday night bringing periods of light rain and snow which will continue through the day Sunday. A few to several inches of snow will be possible over the mountains. A stronger weather system is forecast to bring more significant precipitation early next week."
Quoting MahFL:


I was actually referring to ports that have been destroyed due to sea rises or made useless due to sea falls/land rises etc etc.
Here's a short but interesting presentation about ports and sea level rise. As usual, they may not have all the details right but the overall problem seems pretty real.
Quoting MahFL:
Good news for CA.

"The first in a series of frontal systems is forecast to move onshore Saturday night bringing periods of light rain and snow which will continue through the day Sunday. A few to several inches of snow will be possible over the mountains. A stronger weather system is forecast to bring more significant precipitation early next week."
All we can hope for is the "April Miracle". It's happened before so maybe so will happen again. There won't be enough rain and snow to make this even close to a normal season but it may cushion the current emergency...if it happens.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks for those statistics; appears from your Post that snowpack is essentially a big part of the "reserve" for that region that provides some replenishment for the reservoirs as it melts independent of the regular rainfall. Hence a big part of the problem this particular year;Never in its recorded history has the Sierra ended up with so little snow by winters end. We saw part of this coming with the jet stream pattern this year with the remarkable warmth in the Pacific NW this Winter/early Spring.

No telling how long this cycle will actually last for that region and it will have serious implications for such a large current population and the agricultural interests (with Cali veggies and other produce so often being imported around the US and other parts in the Winter months). Hopefully, the commercial interests and policy makers will put their heads together to create/take measures that will help mitigate some of these major losses and looks at alternatives if this becomes a long-term issue.

A great example, within the very large national borders of Conus, of the impacts of regional climate/weather issues.





Like all most all weather disasters, there are silver linings. Water agencies have been trying for decades to get California and Arizona farmers to follow the Israeli example of minimal water use irrigation. It has worked for them, and they have way less water than we do. Switching to things like drip irrigation on a large scale won't be cheap but it's the only way to save these farms in the long run, and now there's a good reason to do it.
Know we are not talking about the severe weather right now, but here is the theme song for it.

Tune: First verse of American National Anthem (The Star Spangled Banner)

Oh say can you see
By the lighting's white light
What we did not want to happen
Is now right on top of us

SPC issued an enhanced risk
Damaging winds are a threat
And so
Is large hail
And a couple of tornadoes

The storms are firing
In the enhanced risk area
Severe weather has commenced
Due to MCD 185

END
Quoting 19. sar2401:

That's kind of zero sum solution. They need to pump water to make snow so all that does is delay adding back the water they pumped. The number of acres used for ski areas is also tiny compared to the area of the Sierra Nevada. If anything, ski areas may not be allowed to open at all without natural snow.


I made snow one winter while in college at Sugarloaf in Maine. Since most ski areas are high up in the mountains, the water required to make snow comes from whatever nearby source they can find. There are regulations in place to not draw rivers, streams, ponds, etc. below a certain level or flow rate. Thus ski areas are actually very limited in the amount of snow they can produce. A big area with a lot of water to draw from may be able to run 300 to 400 hundred snow guns. Sounds like a lot, but in reality that might cover 10 to 20 acres depending on how far apart the guns are spaced. Running guns around the clock in ideal conditions (low humidity's, temps less that 10F), maybe an ski resort could build a foot or two of snow a day (assuming conditions remain constant). It has good water content, probably one to two inches equivalent when it melts because it is so dense. Massive power draw. That many guns requires a lot of power for pumps, fan motors and/or compressed air depending on the type of gun employed. Now, in the Sierra Nevada, mother nature can drop four feet of snow in one night over 100,000 acres. A little math shows that one big ski resort could do the equivalent in approximately 27 years (running day and night, non-stop, 365 days a year).
Quoting 14. BobHenson:

We'll be providing updates on the severe weather this afternoon and evening over the central states at our Wunderground live blog.


Thank You Bob.. :)
Quoting 21. Abacosurf:

California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say.
Link
Thanks for clarifying that this is not the worst drought in the last thousand years.


Lets hope the recovery can happen as fast as it did in Texas...





Many parts of Texas are still waiting for recovery, especially west and north of the Balconies Escarpment. The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River as a whole are currently sitting at 37% capacity, a value they've been hovering around for some time now.

Lower Colorado River Athority
ALERT
SEVERE WEATHER ZONE
Paducah, KY (KPAH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is one for ya


this is very serious for those folks out there..i do hope everyone listens to and heeds those new water restrictions California put out now...
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Paducah, KY (KPAH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)




As usual that forecasted HPC was too bullish and too far north for this storm. Think most of this activity will stay along and to the south of the Ohio River. We were forecasted for 1-2" of rain today and tonight, but we only got a few sprinkles this morning across central IL and they just re-adjusted their forecast to cloudy and dry here...:/ We need rain here. It was a dry winter outside of February. Ohio River has been blasted with precip since November 14', you don't have to go to far north of that ~ 200 mi. and it has been quite the opposite. Very El Nino like symptoms around my neck of the woods over the last several months.
Quoting 30. pcola57:



Thank You Bob.. :)

MARVIN!!!!

So long I don't "read" from you!!
How are you?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Paducah, KY (KPAH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)


Thanks for posting that, Keep.

Quoting 21. Abacosurf:

California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say.
Link
Thanks for clarifying that this is not the worst drought in the last thousand years.


Lets hope the recovery can happen as fast as it did in Texas...






Note that the blog article does not explicitly state that this is not the worst drought in California in the last 1000 years. The duration of a drought is not the only measure of how bad a drought is. One could also use the maximum intensity of a drought. With respect to soil moisture, the current drought likely has the greatest maximum intensity of any drought in the last 1200 years, according to a recent study.
Harold Brooks posted this image on Twitter a few days ago, highlighting that the number of days with tornadoes is decreasing, but a higher number of tornadoes are occurring on the days that they do occur.

Still a long way off, but this would be nice:


(Credit to Levi)
In the 'No Brains No Headaches' category: I was just talking to a client in San Diego and she is battling with her HOA because they still mandate lush green lawns and she wants to replacing her grass with drought resistant landscaping..
It's pretty irrelevant if this is the worst drought or not, or not the longest, those are just rankings. The fact is California is in bad shape, water is being pumped out of the underground aquifers that hasn't seen the light of day in 20,000 years, this is causing some places like the San Joaquin Valley to sink at the rate of a foot per year. This is dire news, and frankly, I could care less if this is not the worst drought ever, it is certainly the worst drought in California with this many people dependent of natural resources.
Quoting 47. JNFlori30A:

In the 'No Brains No Headaches' category: I was just talking to a client in San Diego and she is battling with her HOA over replacing her grass lawn with drought resistant landscaping..
50. JRRP
Quoting 33. 1900hurricane:


Many parts of Texas are still waiting for recovery, especially west and north of the Balconies Escarpment. The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River as a whole are currently sitting at 37% capacity, a value they've been hovering around for some time now.

Lower Colorado River Athority
it looks as though this drought has propagated from east to west and the relief has as well.
Let's hope the drought relief can keep easing west in time.
Quoting 48. Naga5000:

It's pretty irrelevant if this is the worst drought or not, or not the longest, those are just rankings. The fact is California is in bad shape, water is being pumped out of the underground aquifers that hasn't seen the light of day in 20,000 years, this is causing some places like the San Joaquin Valley to sink at the rate of a foot per year. This is dire news, and frankly, I could care less if this is not the worst drought ever, it is certainly the worst drought in California with this many people dependent of natural resources.


How dare you put things into context!? :)
Most recent Conus IR image from Rammb; coldest cloud tops current headed into extreme NW TN and KY and on up into IN and OH:



Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Most recent Conus IR image from Rammb; coldest cloud tops current headed into extreme NW TN and KY and on up into IN and OH:





And they're -60 degrees (C or F?)

How come they're not severe? Perhaps a cap is over the area?
55. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA.Colorado State Edu. though colours are not a "COLlow" cloud product** .
D&T:: on right side
Anigif::
image host  Img Host imgbox (also host VIDs)

**its funktopGal #16.6 from my 1991 SAT. filters, no relation Mr. Funk i add his name as i created the filters out of curiosity and fun (also was testing them for a major image editor (1990-94). Mr. Funk made his Funktop imagery with the knowledge of math/purpose behind them i.e hard work so if anyone figures out my colours credit Mr. Funk. no "point" or ".3" after the FunktopGal name means physics oriented, ".6" as used above is physics & Galacsics (Gal) oriented, ".9" (will never post anymore, are only Galacsics oriented. Galacsics oriented meant it presents features in weather that present Galacsics "triggers" before physics catch up and forms a "weather" output. Interesting strong (orange) flow EAST of Sar2401.
Quoting 44. DCSwithunderscores:



Note that the blog article does not explicitly state that this is not the worst drought in California in the last 1000 years. The duration of a drought is not the only measure of how bad a drought is. One could also use the maximum intensity of a drought. With respect to soil moisture, the current drought likely has the greatest maximum intensity of any drought in the last 1200 years, according to a recent study.
No.. But he provided the links, to which I inserted in my post, in his blog post that droughts of extended periods of time happened during the 900-1400 AD era. Let's hope this does not come to happen again and that this drought will mend itself in a timely manner.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KYC039-075-105-MOC023-133-143-207-022130-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0022.150402T1833Z-150402T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CARLISLE KY-HICKMAN KY-FULTON KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-
STODDARD MO-BUTLER MO-
133 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW
MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN, MOST OF THIS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
HAS FALLEN ALONG A LINE FROM LILBOURN TO ARLINGTON AND CLINTON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.
Carried over from previous blog to respond to LABonBon:

Quoting 136. LAbonbon:

I'm going to wade in here (no pun intended) on the discussion of sea level rise.Snip)

Edit: added caption to figure and source link


Stefan Rahmstorf followed that RealClimate article with a survey of sea level experts, the survey, Sea-level rise: What the experts expect was posted in RealClimate.

Excerpt

In the long run, sea-level rise will be one of the most serious consequences of global warming. But how fast will sea levels rise? Model simulations are still associated with considerable uncertainty – too complex and varied are the processes that contribute to the increase. A just-published survey of 90 sea-level experts from 18 countries now reveals what amount of sea-level rise the wider expert community expects. With successful, strong mitigation measures, the experts expect a likely rise of 40-60 cm in this century and 60-100 cm by the year 2300. With unmitigated warming, however, the likely range is 70-120 cm by 2100 and two to three meters by the year 2300.

Sea-level: a bit of context

For context, the following figure from the current IPCC report summarizes the sea-level evolution:


Figure 1: Sea level rise according to the IPCC report of 2013. Shown is the past history of sea level since the year 1700 from proxy data (sediments, purple) and multiple records from tide gauge measurements. Light blue are the satellite data (from 1993). The two future scenarios mentioned in the text (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6) are shown in red and blue, with their “likely” uncertainty range according to the IPCC (meaning a 66 % probability to remain inside this range). Source: IPCC AR5 Fig. 13.27.

...The survey results

The following graph shows what the surveyed experts expect for these two scenarios up to the year 2100:



Figure 2: Sea level rise over the period 2000-2100 for two warming scenarios (red RCP8.5, blue RCP3). The ranges show the average numbers given across all the experts. The inner (darker) range shows the 17 to 83 percentile values, the outer range the 5 to 95th percentiles. For comparison we see the NOAA projections of December 2012 (dashed lines) and the new IPCC projections (bars on the right). Since this graph shows the increase from the year 2000, about 25 cm should be added for a direct numerical comparison with the previous graph.

The experts gave a median rise of 40-60 cm for the blue climate scenario and 70-120 cm for the red scenario. Most of the experts thus expect a higher rise than the IPCC – about two-thirds (65%) give the upper limit for the red ‘likely’ range a higher value than the IPCC, even though the IPCC has increased its projections by ~60% since its last report of 2007. In expert circles the IPCC reports are widely considered to be conservative; this is empirical confirmation.


My bold

The experts' opinions are for significantly more sea level rise than the IPCC

Quoting 54. 62901IL:



And they're -60 degrees (C or F?)

How come they're not severe? Perhaps a cap is over the area?


I am thinking F at that height; not sure what the current soundings might indicate in terms of the current Cap in those parts.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am thinking F at that height; not sure what the current soundings might indicate in terms of the current Cap in those parts.


Where can I find those?
On the current aviation charts, the air temps at 30,000 feet around Ohio are at about -45 degrees; not sure how high the coldest cloud tops on the Satt loops but -65 sounds/looks about right on the larger anvils/tops.
Quoting 56. Abacosurf:

No.. But he provided the links, to which I inserted in my post, in his blog post that droughts of extended periods of time happened during the 900-1400 AD era. Let's hope this does not come to happen again and that this drought will mend itself in a timely manner.


The current drought is likely the most intense drought in at least 1200 years with respect to soil moisture according to a recent study.
Quoting 50. JRRP:


Tell me what it is? I'm extra dumb today :'(
Quoting 48. Naga5000:

It's pretty irrelevant if this is the worst drought or not, or not the longest, those are just rankings. The fact is California is in bad shape, water is being pumped out of the underground aquifers that hasn't seen the light of day in 20,000 years, this is causing some places like the San Joaquin Valley to sink at the rate of a foot per year. This is dire news, and frankly, I could care less if this is not the worst drought ever, it is certainly the worst drought in California with this many people dependent of natural resources.


Very good points naga....If there is no relief soon...what is the solution???
What California's drought means for US food prices

Almonds, avocados, artichokes, alfalfa %u2013 these foods may be easy on your belt, but as California%u2019s historic drought deepens, they%u2019ll get tougher on your wallet. The driest span on the West Coast in at least half a millennium is likely to make a whole range of produce more expensive across the country.

The Golden State produces nearly half the nation%u2019s fruits and vegetables, including 95 percent of broccoli, 98 percent of garlic and 99 percent of walnuts. %u201CCalifornia is basically all over your market basket,%u201D says Penn State Professor James Dunn, who studies how weather affects food prices. %u201CIt%u2019s important in almost any commodity,%u201D Dunn says.

Though the USDA has previously predicted scant overall food price increases this year, Dunn says it%u2019s now clear that the drought will have a %u201Cbig impact%u201D on grocery bills.

Recent developments don%u2019t bode well for farmers. Just as the growing season gets underway in California%u2019s produce-rich Central Valley, the state has reported astonishingly low snowfall, an important source of irrigation. This fact was illustrated dramatically at the press conference Gov. Jerry Brown staged Wednesday during the annual measuring of the Sierra Nevada snowpack. On a mountain pass where the snow usually tops 5 feet, Brown stood on browned grass and announced extraordinary water restrictions.

Though the water controls won%u2019t touch agriculture, the miserable snowpack will mean further pain for farmers this spring and summer.

Not everything in the supermarket is likely to get pricier. While California plays an important role in meat and dairy production %u2013 particularly in growing the alfalfa that goes into cattle feed %u2013 the drought will likely have a muted effect on the cost of beef, which depends largely on corn prices.

Other factors complicate the relationship between drought and food costs. Milt McGiffen, a specialist in vegetables at the University of California Riverside, said farmers have begun by shifting from wheat and corn to high- value crops like tree fruits and almonds.

The global food market can absorb some of the slack as well. %u201COnce somebody in Costa Rica hears that we%u2019re not going to plant as many melons here, they start planting them there,%u201D McGiffen says.

And it%u2019s possible that the price spike some expect this year could actually come a few years down the road. Extreme weather shocks don't always show up in consumer costs immediately. If producers pack up for greener pastures, as some almond farmers have recently done, the impact may be delayed. %u201CIt takes a while for this to happen and the economic incentive has to be pretty strong,%u201D Dunn says.

%u201CWhen farmers are just getting clobbered, eventually they say enough is enough."



Owen Davis


International Business Times - %u200EThursday%u200E, %u200EApril%u200E %u200E2%u200E, %u200E2015
Quoting 60. 62901IL:



Where can I find those?


Maybe someone on here knows; I am thinking that most of that real time info is from balloon soundings (from local NWS offices) that they (and SPC) often incorporate into their discussions and short-term modelling. Here is the textbook definition of CAP from the Noaa site:


(also called "Lid") A layer of relatively warm air aloft, usually several thousand feet above the ground, which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further and produce thunderstorms. As such, the cap often prevents or delays thunderstorm development even in the presence of extreme instability. However, if the cap is removed or weakened, then explosive thunderstorm development can occur. 

The cap is an important ingredient in most severe thunderstorm episodes, as it serves to separate warm, moist air below and cooler, drier air above. With the cap in place, air below it can continue to warm and/or moisten, thus increasing the amount of potential instability. Or, air above it can cool, which also increases potential instability. But without a cap, either process (warming/moistening at low levels or cooling aloft) results in a faster release of available instability - often before instability levels become large enough to support severe weather development.
Quoting 63. Gearsts:

Tell me what it is? I'm extra dumb today :'(


A chart of forecasted wind anomalies across the Pacific. Looks like a series of moderate to strong westerly wind burst on the way and the one in mid May looks very strong.
Quoting 64. yoboi:



Very good points naga....If there is no relief soon...what is the solution???
well we could start by pumping water in those oil pipe lines soon cause I got a feeling water is gonna be more valuable then oil in coming years
Quoting 56. Abacosurf:

No.. But he provided the links, to which I inserted in my post, in his blog post that droughts of extended periods of time happened during the 900-1400 AD era. Let's hope this does not come to happen again and that this drought will mend itself in a timely manner.


The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that may also have been related to other climate events around the world during that time, including China[1] and other areas, [2][3] lasting from about AD 950 to 1250.
Quoting 67. StormTrackerScott:



A chart of forecasted wind anomalies across the Pacific. Looks like a series of moderate to strong westerly wind burst on the way and the one in mid May looks very strong.
LOL i was reading it wrong
Quoting 62. DCSwithunderscores:



The current drought is likely the most intense drought in at least 1200 years with respect to soil moisture according to a recent study.
I would think a 200 year drought like the one linked in DR. Bobs post from 1100-1300AD would be drier than a 3 year drought. But that's just a guess....
Quoting 69. yonzabam:



The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that may also have been related to other climate events around the world during that time, including China[1] and other areas, [2][3] lasting from about AD 950 to 1250.


Here is the Wiki link to that comment....................... :) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

Quoting 68. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well we could start by pumping water in those oil pipe soon lines cause I got a feeling water is gonna be more valuable then oil in coming years


If you really want to see States battle each other.....propose shipping new water...
Quoting 62. DCSwithunderscores:



The current drought is likely the most intense drought in at least 1200 years with respect to soil moisture according to a recent study.
One important measure of drought intensity SHOULD be the number of people affected, directly and indirectly. In this case I would guess probably 15 million will be affected directly and 250 million indirectly, possibly more. Keep's quote of the article on food access and prices conveys the real message of the California drought. Many of the foods grown in California don't do well in other parts of the country so moving them elsewhere isn't easy. Costa Rica, with less than 15% of California's land area, most of it quite mountainous and much of it held in parks and reserves, can't possibly take up much of the slack.
Quoting 71. Abacosurf:

I would think a 200 year drought like the one linked in DR. Bobs post from 1100-1300AD would be drier than a 3 year drought. But that's just a guess....



I think that that guess is not reliable. Duration is not the same as maximum intensity. The study that I mentioned suggests that, over the past 1200 years, the most intense drought and the longest drought are not the same.
Quoting 75. DCSwithunderscores:



I think that that assumption is not valid. Duration is not the same as maximum intensity. The study that I mentioned suggests otherwise.
I keep hearing about the "recent study"....lol got a link??
Here is
a link to a "recent study" from 1-2015 that is also linked in Dr. Bobs post.

Link
Quoting Naga5000:
It's pretty irrelevant if this is the worst drought or not, or not the longest, those are just rankings. The fact is California is in bad shape, water is being pumped out of the underground aquifers that hasn't seen the light of day in 20,000 years, this is causing some places like the San Joaquin Valley to sink at the rate of a foot per year. This is dire news, and frankly, I could care less if this is not the worst drought ever, it is certainly the worst drought in California with this many people dependent of natural resources.
I was very lucky to have had the time and money to be able to take a oar powered raft trip all the way from Lee's Ferry to Diamond Springs. This was in October of 1991 and I foolishly didn't bring a wetsuit. Dumb. It was 13 long, cold days, but still amazing. One of the things we saw all that way down the river was the ruins of abandoned civilizations. The Anasazi used to live along the river, which was their source of water for drinking and agriculture. There's evidence that the population in the Grand Canyon was as high as 25,000 by about 1150. The climate began to change, and the summer rains began to wane. By about 1200, it appears the winter rains were also well below normal and the region was in a major drought. At one time, it was thought the Anasazi were killed off in warfare with other tribes. The recent evidence is that they just picked up and left. Agriculture is what fed them. With multiple crop failures, they migrated to better watered areas, mostly in Colorado and Utah. It was pretty sobering to stand in those cliff dwellings high above the river and realize this was a thriving civilization a thousand years ago. I remember wondering then if the same thing could happen again. I hope we're not at the beginning of finding out.
Quoting 70. Gearsts:

LOL i was reading it wrong


I gotta say the latest CFSv2 is showing a monster El-Nino with intensity just under the 1997 event. This is a change for the CFSv2 as it was on the weaker side of the dynamical models until the last week or so. If we do get an El-Nino as intense as some models say then California we most certainly see a lot of rain beginning this Fall.

Looks like 2.2 or 2.3C right now for Fall is what the CFSv2 is showing doesn't mean it will verify but it has some support from other models which are stronger on the NMME site.
Quoting 76. Abacosurf:

I keep hearing about the "recent study"....lol got a link??
Here is
a link to a "recent study" from 1-2015 that is also linked in Dr. Bobs post.

Link


Here is a link:

Link
A few showers off to my west but they're fizzling out before they get here.

scott are ya sure you want to call that
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
scott are ya sure you want to call that


Go big or go home. That's Scott's motto.
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

scott are ya sure you want to call that


If you read the post I specifically say that is what the CFSv2 is showing and other models are even stronger than that more notably the NASA model. Going to be interesting it does appear there is going to be a Strong El-Nino this Fall. Record PDO, Very high ESPI, SOI at -11 on the 30 day average, and most of all sustained westerly wind burst.

Also a Kelvin Wave which nearing the strength of the one last year. Difference this time around though the atmosphere is already in a base El-Nino state
OT

Record strength typhoons in the West-Pac for the pre-April period. Related to climate change, or was the quality of IR satellite imagery in the basin during the beginning of the last cold AMO such that less accurate Dvorak analysis could be done? Or maybe because the Dvorak scale didn't come into wide use until the early 1970s. Or both. Or maybe all three.

I'd assume that since changes in the Pacific can change the Atlantic, the inverse would be true, although the magnitude, I expect, would be smaller, because of the relative size of the basins.


Since I'm not a met, I just don't know. Quick internet search doesn't seem to show any study on whether AMO affects Westpac typhoons.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Maybe someone on here knows; I am thinking that most of that real time info is from balloon soundings (from local NWS offices) that they (and SPC) often incorporate into their discussions and short-term modelling.
You can see the most recent soundings here. If you're not familiar with all the meanings, the upper air plots are explained here. Unfortunately, how good the data is is dependent on how many sites you have near you. The closest I have is Tallahassee, which is about 125 miles. Birmingham is about 160 miles. I have to do some extrapolation, and that doesn't always work. Birmingham has much more favorable soundings for thunderstorms that Tallahassee, and, from radar, it appears the soundings over me would be even less favorable. They do have special launches from non-standard locations when severe weather is expected, so you have to watch your local NWS offices for information about those.
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Go big or go home. That's Scott's motto.


Lets just say Mother Nature is going to put on quite the show the next 12 months with likely significant effects in both California & Florida for the Fall/Winter months upcoming.
Storms are about to pop here on the NW side of Orlando some could get pretty strong over the next 2 to 4 hours.

Reverse Osmosis is the way to go. Turning salt water into fresh drinkable water1
86. sar2401
3:44 PM EDT on April 02, 2015


Thanks for those links to the current soundings;
91. vis0

Quoting 15. Abacosurf:

Seriously?? What do they pump into the machines to make said snow??
ya forgot to add::


(for concerned citizens) "and how does HydroPower work (which Ca. uses) to generate the electricty the pumps use?
(for unconcerned citizens) "and where will i snowboard/ski?"
Too bad that nuclear power is so feared in California, it'd be the carbon free way of generating massive amounts of electricity that could produce fresh water in de-sal plants from the ocean and pump it into the reservoirs for low snow years.

Also too bad nuclear plants need a heat sink, or need to be near a body of water, California is not immune to tsunamis, and the entire state is riddled with seismically active faults.
Quoting 13. CaneFreeCR:

Grim news for California -- but of course the climate could change any day now! One "solution" for California's water cycle problems could be for the state to require all ski areas with snow machines to run them continuously during weather cold enough to produce snow, in order to increase the snow pack and even out runoff a bit. Kind of a small bandaid, but might close the wound a little.


You mean forming a new wound by cutting out skin to patch the first one right?

Unless snow machines recently started producing snow using water vapor, snow machines aren't helping anything. That's just redistributing what little water is left. Snow machines don't make snow from nothing.
Quoting vis0:

ya forgot to add::


(for concerned citizens) "and how does HydroPower work (which Ca. uses) to generate the electricty the pumps use?
(for unconcerned citizens) "and where will i snowboard/ski?"


The people who live in Beverly Hills Ca. can only water their lawns 3 days per week. How terrible it must be.

Worst drought (intensity) in the history of California and they can still water their lawns 3 days per week?
2015 Water use schedule
Link
Link

Most the places I've lived we've only been able to water our lawns twice a week and we weren't in a severe/historic drought.
Quoting 58. JohnLonergan:





Thanks, John! I read through the RealClimate link you posted - great info. I attempted to get to the "Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300" (Horton, et. al., 2014) article referenced in that link, but hit the darn paywall (really hate that).

I understand better now the range of potential sea level rise, between the two scenarios (unmitigated vs. mitigated emissions). I had read that IPCC's outlook was conservative, and this info certainly shows that.
Disturbing blog.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OZARKS REGION INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ECNTRL KS...NERN OK INTO
THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A SMALL
WINDOW EXISTS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.


...SERN KS...NERN OK...SRN MO AND NRN AR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT HAIL
AREA AND A 10% TORNADO AREA FROM NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO INTO
NWRN AR.
THIS AFTERNOON A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WCNTRL
OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SCNTRL MO THEN EWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
OH VALLEY. WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...THE SFC LAYER REMAINS
CAPPED. STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL AUGMENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE KS/OK/MO/AR BORDERS AND EXPAND NEWD. STRONG VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE.


OTHERWISE...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN
THE BROAD WARMS SECTOR OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEY WHERE THE UNCAPPED
WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE PROMOTED BY MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS REGION THOUGH A
COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..DIAL.. 04/02/2015
just read on cnn that California's farms use 80% of the human used water..somehow those farmers need to invest in drip line watering or some other high tech system to conserve water...when peoples tap water runs out there will be hell to pay over there I imagine..
Quoting 100. LargoFl:

just read on cnn that California's farms use 80% of the human used water..somehow those farmers need to invest in drip line watering or some other high tech system to conserve water...when peoples tap water runs out there will be hell to pay over there I imagine..


That's because too many crops are grown and sold in a region that get's less yearly rainfall than much of the U.S., it doesn't make sense. Now that we have bad drought, it's event worse. The areas of California that have a wet climate ironically is not where most of the crops are grown.
Lots of big towers here on the NW side of Orlando. In about 30 minutes storms will be firing all across the westernside of Orlando.
You can see the rain shaft of one cell forming to my SSW.

It does look like S.W. Missouri is getting ready to fire off some storms. Looks like a dry line from just west of San Antonio up to just west of Tulsa.
Quoting 96. Barefootontherocks:

One word... "Desal"


From Wiki:

"California has 17 desalination plants in the works, either partially constructed or through exploration and planning phases.[148] The list of locations includes Bay Point, in the Delta, Redwood City, seven in the Santa Cruz / Monterey Bay, Cambria, Oceaneo, Redondo Beach, Huntington Beach, Dana Point, Camp Pendleton, Oceanside and Carlsbad.

Carlsbad: The United States' largest desalination plant is being constructed by Poseidon Resources and is expected to go online 2016.[149] It is expected to produce 50 million gallons a day to 110,000 customers in San Diego County at an estimated cost of $1b.

Concord: Planned to open in 2020, producing 20 million gallons a day.

Monterey County: Sand City, two miles north of Monterey, with a population of 334, is the only city in California completely supplied with water from a desalination plant.

Santa Barbara: The Charles Meyer Desalination Facility[150] was constructed in Santa Barbara, California, in 1991–92 as a temporary emergency water supply in response to severe drought. While it has a high operating cost, the facility only needs to operate infrequently, allowing Santa Barbara to use its other supplies more extensively.
"
Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



The people who live in Beverly Hills Ca. can only water their lawns 3 days per week. How terrible it must be.

Worst drought (intensity) in the history of California and they can still water their lawns 3 days per week?
2015 Water use schedule
Link
Link

Most the places I've lived we've only been able to water our lawns twice a week and we weren't in a severe/historic drought.


In Florida they are smart enough to keep watering restrictions in place even months after a rain pattern arrives if a drought existed prior. Of course part of this is because ability to store a ground water supply is limited in Florida because of the shallow porous bedrock. Although the advantage of that is that it doesn't take as nearly of long bring ground water levels back to normal.

In the dry areas of California, the bed rock is much deeper and stores a more ancient but gradually accumulated water supply than in Florida, this is true in many dry regions. The advantage is that it can give water for a long time before running out. The worse disadvantage is that because it's a slow ancient accumulated supply, these areas that have low yearly rainfall will take a while to restore it back to normal levels.
107. flsky
I lived in CA during one period of severe drought many years ago. The catchwords were "If it's yellow, let it mellow. If it's brown, flush it down." That was a period when water was also not being given automatically in restaurants.

Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



The people who live in Beverly Hills Ca. can only water their lawns 3 days per week. How terrible it must be.

Worst drought (intensity) in the history of California and they can still water their lawns 3 days per week?
2015 Water use schedule
Link
Link

Most the places I've lived we've only been able to water our lawns twice a week and we weren't in a severe/historic drought.
Quoting 102. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of big towers here on the NW side of Orlando. In about 30 minutes storms will be firing all across the westernside of Orlando.


The funny thing is we have cumulus towers and couple small storms starting to pop here along the sea breeze as well and that's with a 0% chance of rain. There wasn't even a 20% chance in the forecast today, lol.
Dewpoint is 63 degrees in Tulsa Oklahoma.

Dewpoint is 51 degrees in Oklahoma City

Dewpoint is 43 degrees in Woodward Oklahoma.
Going to be smoking hot on Saturday! Perfect beach weather though.

111. flsky
Low - mid 80s are not unusual temps here this time of year. Floridians love it. Not really "smoking hot." Hyperbole.
Quoting 110. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Going to be smoking hot on Saturday! Perfect beach weather though.


Quoting 96. Barefootontherocks:
One word... "Desal"


It's not the only answer, but it's definitely a big part of making sure the inevitable "megadrought" doesn't cause anyone to completely run out of water. Part of the solution should also involve more re-use and reclamation of existing water resources.
Cell firing off N.E. of Springfield. We should see more storms form back to the west/southwest.
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:

It does look like S.W. Missouri is getting ready to fire off some storms. Looks like a dry line from just west of San Antonio up to just west of Tulsa.




Given good lapse rates and cold temps aloft, there's a 30% chance of hail there and a 10% tornado chance in SW Missouri despite mostly undirectional shear according to the Springfield sounding.



About dang time! :D
Good comprehensive article. However, the 'Lake Powell surface elevation' figure (1,075 ft) is erroneous. The level as of April 1, 2015 is about 3,591 feet above sea level and dropping slowly. This is about 109 feet below the 'full pool' elevation of 3,700 feet, which is 45 percent of the water volume at full pool. The river surface elevation immediately downstream from Lake Powell, just below Glen Canyon Dam, is 3,132 feet.
Warning on the cell in Missouri.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 345 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AUGUSTA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PACIFIC...EUREKA...WILDWOOD...ELLISVILLE...CLARKSO N VALLEY...
CHESTERFIELD...BALLWIN...MANCHESTER...VALLEY PARK...TOWN AND
COUNTRY...DES PERES...KIRKWOOD...FRONTENAC...CREVE COEUR...WARSON
WOODS...FENTON...GLENDALE...OAKLAND...LADUE AND SUNSET HILLS.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BABLER MEMORIAL STATE PARK...CASTLEWOOD STATE
PARK AND ROUTE 66 STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 44 FROM EXIT 251 TO EXIT 277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

Now a tornado warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 349 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 31 MILES WEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRY KNOB...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FORT LEONARD WOOD...FALCON AND TWIN
BRIDGES.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 119 AND 124 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



The people who live in Beverly Hills Ca. can only water their lawns 3 days per week. How terrible it must be.

Worst drought (intensity) in the history of California and they can still water their lawns 3 days per week?
2015 Water use schedule
Link
Link

Most the places I've lived we've only been able to water our lawns twice a week and we weren't in a severe/historic drought.


What do they do about those HOAs that demand green lawns and put liens on homes that don't comply?
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Go big or go home. That's Scott's motto.
He better go home.
Noticeable hook on the southern cell.
122. vis0

Quoting 74. CaneFreeCR:

One important measure of drought intensity SHOULD be the number of people affected, directly and indirectly. In this case I would guess probably 15 million will be affected directly and 250 million indirectly, possibly more. Keep's quote of the article on food access and prices conveys the real message of the California drought. Many of the foods grown in California don't do well in other parts of the country so moving them elsewhere isn't easy. Costa Rica, with less than 15% of California's land area, most of it quite mountainous and much of it held in parks and reserves, can't possibly take up much of the slack.
Also for Puerto Rico get the gangs (which seem to be growing there -pun Intended- ) to make more money growing produce and sign waivers not to return to gangs in return for interest from crop yield, if money is laundered to gangs 3 times the prison sentence in non controlled by gangs, prisons.  An idea i proposed at a town meeting there, was to give land in the USofA a (TopSoil) recovery periods by having Puerto Rico grow crops it can grow there every 12 yrs for a ~2-3 yr period OR when droughts are foretasted here in the UsofA (as model become better long tern forecasters...ok...2056 AD but its an idea) (mainly Fruits, Tropical nuts...i'm from Nu York : - P) therefore it helps maintain an important islands economy (can do this with several Caribbean Islands) and allows the US some slack in people getting upset or having battles over water rights.
Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



The people who live in Beverly Hills Ca. can only water their lawns 3 days per week. How terrible it must be.

Worst drought (intensity) in the history of California and they can still water their lawns 3 days per week?
2015 Water use schedule
Link
Link

Most the places I've lived we've only been able to water our lawns twice a week and we weren't in a severe/historic drought.

I don't see how Beverly will meet the mandatory 25% reduction announced just yesterday by continuing to allow lawn watering 3 days a week.

From your first link:
"On April 1, 2015, Governor Brown directed the State Water Resources Control Board to implement statewide mandatory water reductions due to continuing drought conditions. The Governor's declaration can be found here: http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18910

The City of Beverly Hills is currently reviewing existing programs and policies to comply with the Governor's order. Please check this webpage for regular updates on this item. For tips and ways to reduce water use, please review the information below.
"

I think their watering schedule might change within a month or less.
Quoting 84. LowerCal:


How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? excerpts:

.... the 2012–2014 drought stands out in the context of the last millennium. In terms of cumulative severity, it is the worst drought on record (−14.55 cumulative PDSI), more extreme than longer (4 to 9 year) droughts.

....

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.

Imagine that...
Two varying opinions on the internet of when the last severe drought of this nature was. :).
I was just reposting what Dr. Bob linked.

Time to adapt real measures of water savings. Agriculturally this could prove to be difficult but we sometimes strive for our greatest accomplishments in times of need.

In the Abacos we had some real lean years and some were forced to buy barge fulls of water to fill their cysterns.
The amazing thing is how long 1000 gallons can last when you conserve.
Quoting 97. LAbonbon:



Thanks, John! I read through the RealClimate link you posted - great info. I attempted to get to the "Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300" (Horton, et. al., 2014) article referenced in that link, but hit the darn paywall (really hate that).

I understand better now the range of potential sea level rise, between the two scenarios (unmitigated vs. mitigated emissions). I had read that IPCC's outlook was conservative, and this info certainly shows that.



I got a pdf by pasting"Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300" (Horton, et. al., 2014) into google scholar, it was at the top of the list. I've found this works fairly well to find non paywalled papers.

You might find this related paper interesting:

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites
Quoting 116. Skyzics:

Good comprehensive article. However, the 'Lake Powell surface elevation' figure (1,075 ft) is erroneous. The level as of April 1, 2015 is about 3,591 feet above sea level and dropping slowly. This is about 109 feet below the 'full pool' elevation of 3,700 feet, which is 45 percent of the water volume at full pool. The river surface elevation immediately downstream from Lake Powell, just below Glen Canyon Dam, is 3,132 feet.
3,591 feet is 1,095 meters - what most of the world uses for measurement.
Quoting 124. Abacosurf:


Imagine that...
Two varying opinions on the internet of when the last severe drought of this nature was. :).
I was just reposting what Dr. Bob linked.

Time to adapt real measures of water savings. Agriculturally this could prove to be difficult but we sometimes strive for our greatest accomplishments in times of need.

In the Abacos we had some real lean years and some were forced to buy barge fulls of water to fill their cysterns.
The amazing thing is how long 1000 gallons can last when you conserve.


Your link has to do with the duration of the droughts. The other link has to do with the intensity of the droughts. According to the studies, there have been longer droughts in the last millennium than the current drought has been (so far), but the current drought is the most intense one in the area over the last millennium. That's why I noted that the word "worst" is subjective. That word isn't used in the blog article, nor is it used in your link.
They won't be satisfied until we reach 1997 el nino conditions.....I don't know what for though.
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:





They took off the tornado warning for that storm in laclede county. There was quarter size hail near St. Louis but this storm may slide to my south.
Quoting 98. Grothar:

Disturbing blog.


How could you say that when I had not commented on anything yet? Oh, wait. You said disturbing blog and not disturbing blogger. Never mind.
132. JRRP
Quoting washingtonian115:
They won't be satisfied until we reach 1997 el nino conditions.....I don't know what for though.

lol
Quoting 128. DCSwithunderscores:



Your link has to do with the duration of the droughts. The other link has to do with the intensity of the droughts. According to the studies, there have been longer droughts in the last millennium than the current drought has been (so far), but the current drought is the most intense one in the area over the last millennium. That's why I noted that the word "worst" is subjective. That word isn't used in the blog article, nor is it used in your link.
Ok man!! You won! Good job! Still find it hard to imagine a 3 year drought being more severe than a 200 year one.
Boy I sure am thirsty...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 439 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 ILZ069-100-101-MOZ064-022230- CLINTON IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. LOUIS CITY MO- 439 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LOUIS CITY...WESTERN CLINTON...NORTHERN ST. CLAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT... AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. LOUIS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... VENICE... EAST ST. LOUIS... MADISON... CENTREVILLE... GRANITE CITY... WASHINGTON PARK... CASEYVILLE... FAIRVIEW HEIGHTS... PONTOON BEACH... COLLINSVILLE... THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK AND SCOTT JOPLIN HISTORIC SITE. THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS FROM EXIT 21 TO EXIT 24. INTERSTATE 55 IN ILLINOIS FROM EXIT 23 TO EXIT 30. INTERSTATE 64 IN ILLINOIS NEAR EXIT 9. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.


Of course it weakens by the time it reaches me! :/
135. JRRP
NAO forecast
Quoting 124. Abacosurf:


Imagine that...
Two varying opinions on the internet of when the last severe drought of this nature was. :).
I was just reposting what Dr. Bob linked.

Time to adapt real measures of water savings. Agriculturally this could prove to be difficult but we sometimes strive for our greatest accomplishments in times of need.

In the Abacos we had some real lean years and some were forced to buy barge fulls of water to fill their cysterns.
The amazing thing is how long 1000 gallons can last when you conserve.

:^) Differing criteria of severity - number of consecutive years of below average precipitation vs. actual moisture content of the soil. Which of those is worse depends on the context of what you need the water for and how robust your reserves infrastructure is.

Yes, there is a lot of room for improvement in conservation and efficiency in California including agriculture in much of the state.

I don't know of anyone in Southeast Florida who has bothered yet but as sea level rises that area is a good candidate for cistern adoption.

I was raised in SE FL and spent a summer sailing around the northern Bahamas bathing with salt water and Joy soap dishwashing liquid followed by a quick fresh water rinse. Drinking water can last a long time when you mostly use it just for drinking.
Quoting 126. JohnLonergan:



I got a pdf by pasting"Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300" (Horton, et. al., 2014) into google scholar, it was at the top of the list. I've found this works fairly well to find non paywalled papers.

You might find this related paper interesting:

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites


Neat trick. I had tried in regular google, with no success. Did it your way, and voila!, just finished reading it :)

For the one you just posted (Kopp, et. al., 2014), that looks like it has some 'meat' to it. I've bookmarked it, perhaps I can read it this weekend. Looking forward to it.
Seeing Joplin in the greatest tornado threat area always makes me wary. Same with Moore. Some of the convection-allowing models are showing vigorous supercells across the region by 1z (9:00pm ET).



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / SWRN MO / EXTREME NWRN AR / NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022147Z - 022315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN KS AND
STORM INITIATION IS PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD
ACROSS SERN KS EWD INTO SWRN MO ALONG AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE. A LEAD MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

STRONG HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IS
ACTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO
1500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE. THE MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED
WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE EARLY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE TOWARDS EVENING IN PARTIAL
RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. LOWERING LCL/S AND
STRONG SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
AND AN ATTENDANT SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/02/2015
It's been rather warm here...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
421 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT BATON ROUGE...

THE TEMPERATURE AT BATON ROUGE REACHED 87 DEGREES TODAY...TYING THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE MOST RECENTLY SET BACK IN 2012.

and (for yesterday)

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
939 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON PARK...

THE TEMPERATURE AT NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON PARK REACHED 88 DEGREES
TODAY...TYING THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE SET BACK IN 2012 AND
2006.

Quoting 136. LowerCal:


I was raised in SE FL and spent a summer sailing around the northern Bahamas bathing with salt water and Joy soap dishwashing liquid followed by a quick fresh water rinse. Drinking water can last a long time when you mostly use it just for drinking.

A little explanation - Joy dishwashing liquid makes suds/lather in salt water and it doesn't dry your skin.
Quoting 127. Xulonn:

3,591 feet is 1,095 meters - what most of the world uses for measurement.

Obviously. But not in the US nor in this article, which said 'feet.'
Quoting 140. LowerCal:


A little explanation - Joy dishwashing liquid makes suds/lather in salt water and it doesn't dry your skin.



: P
Looks like chances for a outbreak of severe storms will be in the moderate range for Ne Ms. Most of NW AL. and Central southern Tn. for tomorrow..... Probably get some severe stuff in here for us around NW Georgia....
Until agriculture is required to stop using flood and sprinkler irrigation and instead required to use drip irrigation techniques, the state and Governor Brown are doing little more than posturing. So far there is an utter refusal to challenge the long time poor water habits of agricultural interests which use the vast majority of reservoir storage and (the now very limited) snowpack runoff.
Awful for California! Hopefully the forecasted rain/snow in the next week or so will help a little.

Perhaps with the +PDO and the onset of what looks to be a moderate El Nino, perhaps they will get some rains from tropical cyclones this summer?
Quoting 142. Patrap:




: P

OK... but does it lather in salt water?

;^)
Good evening, folks. Very good blog entry, thanks Bob Henson!
I'm a subscriber of one of the leading German weekly newspapers (printed version), the "Zeit" (= Times) which always provides a lot of interesting in-depth-articles which use to consume a lot of my time on the weekends ;-)
This week there is a interesting traveling report with the headline "The benefit of drought" dealing with a hike in Coyote Gulch, one of the adjacent canyons of Lake Powell. Author of the report had an elderly local guide who could still remember the time before Glen Canyon Dam was finished (1966) and the wild beauty of the landscape with the remains of ancient settlements and hieroglyphs. Then they were submerged - for good as it was thought back then. But for already many years, due to the ongoing and increasing drought, those canyons reemerged and are now a great destination for hikers. Lots of advertising internet sites are available, but only few like the report I've read in our "Zeit" with the memories of those who knew the area before it had been flooded (see below an English article from 2006). Of course, the beauty of those canyons won't help all those who are dependend on water and electricity of Lake Powell. But the German article (not online yet) stresses human hubris which often makes us think we can shape nature for our needs as we like.

National Geographic: Drought Drains Lake Powell--Uncovering the Glory of Glen Canyon
April 2006
"Today, the fall of the lake has driven a rising debate about its future. Many scientists think Western droughts will intensify as the Earth's climate warms. Water will become even more precious-and reservoirs, which lose vast amounts through evaporation, will seem intolerably wasteful. Better, say many environmentalists, to exploit new technologies for storing water underground, decommission the dam, and let Lake Powell once again be Glen Canyon."
A DRY RED SEASON
A year ago Lake Powell reached its lowest level since Jimi Hendrix played Woodstock and Neil Armstrong made his giant leap onto the moon. A sustained drought had sucked out two-thirds of its water, exposing 140 vertical feet of once drowned cliffs. The dry spell temporarily turned the great reservoir back into a red-rock maze called Glen Canyon, stirring hopes that terrain whose grandeur rivals any on Earth may one day be revealed for good.
It also resurrected Tom McCourt's childhood.
McCourt holds forth on a newly exposed rock outcrop near the shrunken lake and reminisces about what was here 40 years ago: two small settlements flanking a vast floodplain cleaved by the Colorado River's milk-chocolate waters and guarded by fortress cliffs. His grandparents lived on this east side, in the town of White Canyon, before it was slowly inundated by the reservoir.
As a kid, he'd come regularly to visit, and he recalls the country as harsh and bountiful. "My grandfather told me it got so hot down here that the ravens left contrails because their feathers were smoking," McCourt says, a storyteller's glint in his eye. "The soil was so rich we couldn't grow watermelons, because the vines would grow so fast they'd drag the melons across the garden and wear them out before they could ripen.
On this early spring day, visitors representing three generations of two families with ties to White Canyon gather and bear witness to its unveiling. The water hasn't dropped enough to reveal the old landing strip or the site of McCourt's grandparents' house, but it's fallen more than enough to stir personal and collective memories. ...

Whole article see link above (guess meanwhile grandparent's house is visible once again).



Water Level in Lake Powell
NASA, Earth Observatory, By Rebecca Lindsey, May 13, 2014





Severe weather reports so far today.
Quoting 146. LowerCal:


OK... but does it lather in salt water?

;^)


I have never looked down, so I cant give a good scientific result,

But I'll get back to yas on dat LC.

: )

Quoting 144. Skyzics:

Until agriculture is required to stop using flood and sprinkler irrigation and instead required to use drip irrigation techniques, the state and Governor Brown are doing little more than posturing. So far there is an utter refusal to challenge the long time poor water habits of agricultural interests which use the vast majority of reservoir storage and (the now very limited) snowpack runoff.

Agriculture is already feeling some intense pressure...
California Drought Cuts Farm Water Allocation to Zero for Second Consecutive Year | Circle of Blue WaterNews
Remember my blog is always open.
Quoting 150. LowerCal:


Agriculture is already feeling some intense pressure...
California Drought Cuts Farm Water Allocation to Zero for Second Consecutive Year | Circle of Blue WaterNews

Which means they will be pumping groundwater faster than ever before.
My question is that what happens when the water runs out? I guess a lot of people will start bailing out of California and Nevada?

The potential for the drought to persist for "decades" or even the next 5 years seems like it would be catastrophic...

Kinda of like what I thought about sea level rise living in South Dade. Once it starts and things start flooding and can't be stopped you have to start thinking about where would you go? What do you do? Just curious if any of the Californians on the blog have any ideas?
Quoting 145. Envoirment:

Awful for California! Hopefully the forecasted rain/snow in the next week or so will help a little.

Perhaps with the +PDO and the onset of what looks to be a moderate El Nino, perhaps they will get some rains from tropical cyclones this summer?

I've been watching the warm anomalies off the coast of Baja and SoCal.



If these anomalies persist into the EPac hurricane season they may allow the tropical cyclones that travel NNW off the coast to maintain their integrity longer and produce more precipitation than they usually do in southern California.

Rather a desperate hope. :^\
Quoting 149. Patrap:



I have never looked down, so I cant give a good scientific result,

But I'll get back to yas on dat LC.

: )



On no, please don't go to any trouble on my account!

: ^D
156. vis0

Quoting 69. yonzabam:



The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that may also have been related to other climate events around the world during that time, including China[1] and other areas, [2][3] lasting from about AD 950 to 1250.
Waanasee my crazy mind at work read this:: (and yes for my last week of ml-d-ing comments i've bought back how on my blog till 2011 how i'd place my jokes in white fonts,(stopped thast as it became frustrating when editing it format would disappear),  'cause for some unknown reason people cannot separate humor from undiscovered science/theory.

i state by what i've been able to create "hands on", 3 NATURAL ways to create ml-d's in other words something to influence nature to generate a vortex as to weather flow to attract 5 features of weather that help influence attract precipitation, vertical winds, horizontal winds, lightning & temperature changes.

HINT:: For one of the 3 one has to do with how one builds a head garment of feathers. why feather? Has to do with the individual size of the feathers as to how the keratin forms which is divisible by thirds in V & H directions to the level of 5 (above 4 or below 6 no good, max is 9 & 0, those latter 2 together some call the almighty gawd, each Patriarchal (Physics) & Matriarchal Dimension (Galacsics) has 9, quantum has nine but divides each into halves when stable to thirds when unstable) as to ones dimension go over 9 and yer dealing with materials that can build UFOs, go try folding any material into 9 halves you'll notice certain plastic can achieve that wait till man create single cell plastics and bond them to other materials they'll discover that EVEY element has 4 "states: (sit down "yoboi" not counting blue-red states yet) (BTW, H & He ....?, ?, ?, have 5). (don't ask, study feathers measure them and learn, i've given you/readers enough information to make MAJOR discoveries.  i stopped replying last yr, though no one from WxU 2010-2013/4 EVER asked me as to my science only my grammar study)

BACK TO weather & the "warm era".

What if during 900 AD till 1600 AD there were battles in America (North America) between Indians/natives and later those visiting & conquering N. America be it from China , Europe, S. America, that natives had to move southward, therefore in changing where they built their "ml-d's" or had their rain dances which for NORTH America would be Minnesota/Nebraska as to not push-pull down too much cold air or as Natives called it  "Coca Cola Bear VEÜRTEX" : - P   ("Ü" reads more like Norwegian)  (natural form of  ml-d's influence which is what i call man assisted NOT man made need deep repetitive sounds to activate their influence BUT one needs "PURE" souls (GOOD people to wear the needed head garments long enough to have the feathers cover all of the body's glands/chakras as those feathers should be in specific layers)  for nature to "open" her arms and accept a "request" as to influence her ( have i gone off the nutty chart yet?, well wait there is more).


Now If the floods where worldwide then the above "natives moving due to weather (cold) or battles - invasions from abroad" does not match what would have happened.

BUT if the only other area that has floods where from Vietnam to China, guess what?  draw the opposite side of the world weather

i state happens in one attracts a LOW over lets say Texas to Mississippi as natives were first displaced by invaders from China-Alaska slowly but eventually which would cause natives to move from what is now USofA to southern USofA (Texas/Kansas/Miss). This leads to  a dry spell for California but in China the opposing weather would be a RRR HIGH over southern Indian Ocean bringing floods to where China? Now the problem is where do i find REAL INFO on  if more rain feel in China during the 2 major droughts in California during that "Warm era" meaning great flooding had to occur during the Ming Dynasty and just before, good luck finding that here a simple graph showing if natural ml-d was over Kansas and its opposite area of world HIGH. Remember first think sinking air for HIGHs rising air for LOWs. Therefore even if its counter clockwise for HIGHS in the S. Hemisphere the area just OUTSIDE the HIGHs RRR is rich in Tropical moisture being deflected towards China. Now we also have to find out if Australia had less Tropical moisture and if one uses my CLUEs as to how LAND is affected at the right angle areas (red x areas) of an ml-d influence find out if land developed  "holes" sunk in X s areas and rose in X r areas. The orange H & L represents where the natural ml-d affects would have happened BEFORE Natives headed southward due to invasions from China-Alaska. Now once one removes these dances too quickly as Europeans came in then natives all together stopped or died so their  "dances" stopped and weather patterns seen from 600 AD till 1600 that appeared only to repeat within the now  USofA and China stopped. Quick buy SALT now with so many taking my weird explanations with grains of salt there is bound to be a shortage.

Oh BTW here is how i'd helped teachers in JHS teach how H & L turn as to each hemisphere.

Place one finger pointing downwards and spin it as if you're pointing out how the Earth spins over the North Pole NOW KEEP THAT FINGER SPINNING and and slide it down as if its sliding over Earths atmospheres toward the Equator(s), that the direction of a LOW in N. Hemisphere.

Now place the same finger pointing upward imagine Earth is spinning above that finger and point out how that spin goes. Now KEEP THAT FINGER SPINNING as you imagine that turning finger sliding upwards towards the equator(s), that means LOWS in the S. Hemisphere spin clockwise,

yer welcome

Next i'll show how the rib removed from Adam into Eve meant one removed an electron from an ATOM (adam) within a "flourishing" planet (garden of eden) that has life (eve) to reproduce that living thing, by tapping yer head and rubbing yer stomach, that's later i'm too busy rubbing (scratching) my head & tapping my tummy cause i'm trying to think what to make for dinner.


Remember if you like the graphics save them as after this week i'm not uploading many and img. host site will delete most of my graphics due to my inactivity of not logging on to their site.
INjoy

NOW BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER, sar2401, remember what begins in less than 72hrs and takes hold in 144hrs? no not next weeks supermarket specials, the next weather trend, get Radar some doggie ear muffs (as i recommended 2 yrs ago after i read yer pup & others jump when they hear thunder or their "owner" coming in from work) though some pups hate them as its their forté to have a more sensitive to certain audio spectrum.
Quoting Dakster:
My question is that what happens when the water runs out? I guess a lot of people will start bailing out of California and Nevada?

The potential for the drought to persist for "decades" or even the next 5 years seems like it would be catastrophic...

Kinda of like what I thought about sea level rise living in South Dade. Once it starts and things start flooding and can't be stopped you have to start thinking about where would you go? What do you do? Just curious if any of the Californians on the blog have any ideas?
I imagine people with the means to so will do just what I did in 2005 - leave. It's going to be tough for people with jobs tied to California but many of the businesses will leave as well, so some of the jobs will go with them. Now, if El Nino really does blossom and California gets anywhere near a normal rainfall, it will all be a moot point, as the can will get kicked down the road. California is also populated by a lot of smart people, so desalination and better and smarter water use will take up a lot of the slack even if the rains don't come back in the near future. A bigger issue for California when it comes to drought is power. You can do a lot with water conservation but that's not going to send water into the penstocks. Hydro provides about 13% of California's power, and about 25% of the peak load power. As soon as the water level drops below the intakes at the reservoirs, no more power. It's even a worse situation at run of the river plants. On top of the water and power issues, there's a debt load that will eventually bankrupt the state and big earthquakes that are coming - we just don't know exactly when. All these factors, in addition to what I thought was a real estate crash just around the corner, convinced me to leave after almost 40 years. It was nice while it lasted.
Quoting 152. auspiv:


Which means they will be pumping groundwater faster than ever before.

Good point. Rather than waiting for all the small fry to drop in the dust and larger interests of greater means to feel the financial pinch and a) finally adopt conservation and efficiency OR b) abandon California for greener (pun intended) fields (also intended) maybe government should act to avoid a tragedy of the commons.
More bad news from Chile in respect to the flash floods last week:

Death toll in Chile floods rises to 24, 69 missing
AFP, 15 hours ago
Santiago (AFP) - The death toll from floods devastating northern Chile has risen by one to at least 24, officials said Wednesday, as President Michelle Bachelet cancelled a trip to a regional summit to cope with the crisis.
Another 69 people, up by 12 from the last tally, remain missing, the National Emergency Office said.
The flash floods broke out last week in the normally arid north, home to the world's driest desert.
Entire towns have been submerged by water and thousands of people have been left homeless.
The number of dead found in thick mud left behind by the floodwaters has risen steadily as the clean-up continues. ...


I haven't been in here very often last week, so please excuse me if those frightening videos below already were posted:



Another one showing the escalating flood at this place.

Some tidal event (starting at 1:30) has been associated with this flash flood in Chanaral as well (report in Spanish):

Chanaral as well, according to live leak:


Another one from Taltal/Northern Chile.

Have a blessed Good Friday everyone, hopefully with benign weather!
Quoting 153. Dakster:

My question is that what happens when the water runs out? I guess a lot of people will start bailing out of California and Nevada?

The potential for the drought to persist for "decades" or even the next 5 years seems like it would be catastrophic...

Kinda of like what I thought about sea level rise living in South Dade. Once it starts and things start flooding and can't be stopped you have to start thinking about where would you go? What do you do? Just curious if any of the Californians on the blog have any ideas?

I don't want to say anything that might influence anyone's real estate prices.
Sar - I can see why you would want to leave California. Thanks for your insights, I had no idea that hydro was such a big player in the grid.

Near normal rainfall sorta kicks the can down the road though, you really need a lot of slow steady rains and not an all at once rain. Just like I am sure that snow packs melting all at once don't always help either. Except for the flood restoration companies, I suppose.

We had torrential rains in Florida during that drought and it helped, but not as much as when we finally got the normal tropical, daily rainfalls back. That was when the aquifers and the lakes really came back and fast. A slow moving Tropical Storm hitting Cali would do wonders.
Quoting vis0:
sar2401, remember what begins in less than 72hrs and takes hold in 144hrs? no not next weeks supermarket specials, the next weather trend, get Radar some doggie ear muffs (as i recommended 2 yrs ago after i read yer pup & others jump when they hear thunder or coming in from work) though some pups hate them as its their forté to have a more sensitive to certain audio spectrum.
Good heavens! Sorry, all the formatting makes it impossible to quote most of your post because (for some reason) my reply font becomes white on white and disappears. You certainly put some effort into formatting. I'll have to read through everything about 20 times to try to figure it out but there's some merit to the idea that weather on one part of the earth has to be balanced by opposite weather on another part of the earth. If weather didn't try to revert to the mean the human race would never have developed. It's too bad my late wife isn't around to read your posts (although maybe she can - who knows?). She believed in sweat lodges and chakras. I'm just too cynical to go along with it but her beliefs were hers and I tried not interfere.

As far as Radar Dog, I can tell you don't have a dog, especially a dog with big floppy ears. The only way earmuffs would work is if I tied up his ears and then put the earmuffs underneath his ears. Believe it or not, even when I tell Radar Dog it's for his own good, he just doesn't cooperate. I really don't believe it's just the sound of thunder anyway. If you want something nutty, Radar Dog really is a storm detector. He starts getting nervous and scuffling all over the house at least an hour before any storms hit. When I see him doing that, I know it's time to check the real radar. I don't know if he's sensing air pressure changes or maybe static charges changing before a thunderstorm, but he picks up something. That already has him upset before the storm ever gets here. The only things that sorta works is getting him in my dark and windowless bathroom with his bed until the storms pass, poor guy.

When it comes to the next 72 hours, nothing is going to happen here. Any severe weather at all is going to be in northwest Alabama. When it comes to further out, next week might be a better setup, but this week was supposed to be a good setup, and the results so far are pretty disappointing. So far today in Alabama there are two storm reports - quarter size hail and two trees fell over, both north of Birmingham and, of course, zero rain.
Quoting 161. Dakster:
Sar - I can see why you would want to leave California. Thanks for your insights, I had no idea that hydro was such a big player in the grid.

Near normal rainfall sorta kicks the can down the road though, you really need a lot of slow steady rains and not an all at once rain. Just like I am sure that snow packs melting all at once don't always help either. Except for the flood restoration companies, I suppose.

We had torrential rains in Florida during that drought and it helped, but not as much as when we finally got the normal tropical, daily rainfalls back. That was when the aquifers and the lakes really came back and fast. A slow moving Tropical Storm hitting Cali would do wonders.


While I certainly wouldn't be opposed to a tropical cyclone(any rain is good at this point), that doesn't really fall into the "slow steady rain" category by California standards or help the snowpack/Sierra reservoirs any, since no cyclone is likely to survive any further north than Santa Barbara. Plus it's a lot less likely scenario than El Nino giving us an above-average wet season starting in the fall.
Quoting Dakster:
Sar - I can see why you would want to leave California. Thanks for your insights, I had no idea that hydro was such a big player in the grid.

Near normal rainfall sorta kicks the can down the road though, you really need a lot of slow steady rains and not an all at once rain. Just like I am sure that snow packs melting all at once don't always help either. Except for the flood restoration companies, I suppose.

We had torrential rains in Florida during that drought and it helped, but not as much as when we finally got the normal tropical, daily rainfalls back. That was when the aquifers and the lakes really came back and fast. A slow moving Tropical Storm hitting Cali would do wonders.
Yeah, Alabama isn't paradise but the state has to have a balanced budget every year, we have plenty of water even when it's otherwise dry, and there aren't any earthquakes. We have tornadoes - or we used to have - but at least I get some warning of those. Nothing worse than laying in bed and wondering if the shaking is going to stop before it gets lots worse.

What we really need is some cold Gulf of Alaska storms combining with a Pineapple Connection. The tropical air provides the moisture while the Gulf of Alaska provides the lift and cold air to really dump the snow in the mountains. The snow, if it doesn't melt too fast, then provides the melt water to keep the reservoirs up during the summer. Of course, when the Gulf of Alaska isn't very cold and the tropical moisture is off in South America, things don't look too hopeful for California.
Tornado watch issued as cells fire across SE Kansas.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITH
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EVOLVE WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. A TRANSITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
MIXED WITH SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
RISK FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD
Quoting 147. barbamz:

Good evening, folks. Very good blog entry, thanks Bob Henson!
I'm a subsciber of one of the leading German weekly newspapers (printed version), the "Zeit" (= Times) which always provides a lot of interesting in-depth-articles which use to consume a lot of my time on the weekends ;-)
This week there is a interesting traveling report with the headline "The benefit of drought" dealing with a hike in Coyote Gulch, one of the adjacent canyons of Lake Powell. Author of the report had an elderly local guide who could still remember the time before Glen Canyon Dam was finished (1966) and the wild beauty of the landscape with the remains of ancient settlements and hieroglyphs. Then they were submerged - for good as it was thought back then. But for already many years, due to the ongoing and increasing drought, those canyons reemerged and are now a great destination for hikers. Lots of advertising internet sites are available, but only few like the report I've read in our "Zeit" with the memories of those who knew the area before it had been flooded (see below an English article from 2006). Of course, the beauty of those canyons won't help all those who are dependend on water and electricity of Lake Powell. But the German article (not online yet) stresses human hubris which often make us think we can shape nature for our needs as we like.

National Geographic: Drought Drains Lake Powell--Uncovering the Glory of Glen Canyon
April 2006
"Today, the fall of the lake has driven a rising debate about its future. Many scientists think Western droughts will intensify as the Earth's climate warms. Water will become even more precious-and reservoirs, which lose vast amounts through evaporation, will seem intolerably wasteful. Better, say many environmentalists, to exploit new technologies for storing water underground, decommission the dam, and let Lake Powell once again be Glen Canyon."
A DRY RED SEASON
A year ago Lake Powell reached its lowest level since Jimi Hendrix played Woodstock and Neil Armstrong made his giant leap onto the moon. A sustained drought had sucked out two-thirds of its water, exposing 140 vertical feet of once drowned cliffs. The dry spell temporarily turned the great reservoir back into a red-rock maze called Glen Canyon, stirring hopes that terrain whose grandeur rivals any on Earth may one day be revealed for good.
It also resurrected Tom McCourt's childhood.
McCourt holds forth on a newly exposed rock outcrop near the shrunken lake and reminisces about what was here 40 years ago: two small settlements flanking a vast floodplain cleaved by the Colorado River's milk-chocolate waters and guarded by fortress cliffs. His grandparents lived on this east side, in the town of White Canyon, before it was slowly inundated by the reservoir.
As a kid, he'd come regularly to visit, and he recalls the country as harsh and bountiful. "My grandfather told me it got so hot down here that the ravens left contrails because their feathers were smoking," McCourt says, a storyteller's glint in his eye. "The soil was so rich we couldn't grow watermelons, because the vines would grow so fast they'd drag the melons across the garden and wear them out before they could ripen.
On this early spring day, visitors representing three generations of two families with ties to White Canyon gather and bear witness to its unveiling. The water hasn't dropped enough to reveal the old landing strip or the site of McCourt's grandparents' house, but it's fallen more than enough to stir personal and collective memories. ...

Whole article see link above (guess meanwhile grandparent's house is visible once again).



Water Level in Lake Powell
NASA, Earth Observatory, By Rebecca Lindsey, May 13, 2014



Always love your posts. Your are such a positive contributor to the blog..
barbamz... just stunning videos from Chile there, which looked more like a tsunami than anything else I can imagine. The amount and size of the debris in the first one is just awful, the speed of the increase in the last one is just unbelievable, and the second makes me wonder if that were a result of all the big earthquakes in the western Pacific the past few days?

Incredible images, and thanks for sharing, even though such events are obviously so horrible for the people in that area of Chile. :-(

Jo
Quoting LAbonbon:
It's been rather warm here...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
421 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT BATON ROUGE...

THE TEMPERATURE AT BATON ROUGE REACHED 87 DEGREES TODAY...TYING THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE MOST RECENTLY SET BACK IN 2012.

and (for yesterday)

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
939 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON PARK...

THE TEMPERATURE AT NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON PARK REACHED 88 DEGREES
TODAY...TYING THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE SET BACK IN 2012 AND
2006.

The high here was"only" 82 after hitting 91 yesterday. Lots of clouds all day with some cumulus that looked like they might do something. They were only kidding though. All gone now. Beautiful evening, with a pleasant 72 degrees, but it would be even more pleasant if I wasn't having to spend the evening dragging around the hose already.
Emergency management reported a brief tornado a few minutes ago with this supercell in southeastern Kansas. I'm more concerned about how things play out after the ongoing cell merger.

Quoting 163. TimSoCal:



While I certainly wouldn't be opposed to a tropical cyclone(any rain is good at this point), that doesn't really fall into the "slow steady rain" category by California standards or help the snowpack/Sierra reservoirs any, since no cyclone is likely to survive any further north than Santa Barbara. Plus it's a lot less likely scenario than El Nino giving us an above-average wet season starting in the fall.


You need a tropical storm Faye to hit California like it did Florida that one year. Slowly criss cross the state dumping huge amounts of rain over what seemed like weeks.

Heck some of hurricanes took three forevers and a day to get across the state. I remember thinking "what it's over, when Wilma blew through".

At this point California and rain/snow is like a ship in the storm. Any port will do and California case any what to get rain will do.

Sar - We are so warm that the bears have woken up very early this year as in they are awake now. April is usually Bear education and awareness Month here, kinda like end of May is Hurricane Awareness week in Florida. You don't expect to get a Hurricane in May in Florida and you don't expect to run into a Bear now in Alaska. (So I am told).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Emergency management reported a brief tornado a few minutes ago with this supercell in southeastern Kansas. I'm more concerned about how things play out after the ongoing cell merger.

Those cells are really growing out ahread of the cells further west. Looks like Joplin gets hit by at least a severe thunderstorm but hopefully not worse.
That cell in SE KS has a funnel cloud on it that has briefly touched down a couple times, a couple of the TVN streams have great views.
Cell merger is done; tornado is reported as ongoing again.

Don't think major flood in San Joaquin is possible, the water does go to SF Bay and dams were built to control the flood.
I'd keep a very close eye on the cell developing near Tulsa. It doesn't have any competition.
I take it the cap finally broke in SE KS and SW MO? Those storms really fired in the past hour! There's already reports of a brief tornado near Labette.
Something tells me this cell needs a tornado warning.

Quoting FormosanBlackBear:
Don't think major flood in San Joaquin is possible, the water does go to SF Bay and dams were built to control the flood.
Were you living in California in February of 1986? There was some serious flooding in the San Joaquin Valley. Some of it came when flood control structures failed. The levee system in the Valley is old and poorly maintained so the Valley has the chance of a major flood under the right circumstances.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 703 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... SOUTHERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 800 PM MDT * AT 703 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WESKAN...OR 15 MILES EAST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WESKAN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GOODLAND. && LAT...LON 3871 10218 3889 10214 3887 10153 3870 10157 3870 10178 TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 279DEG 24KT 3879 10206 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.00IN $$
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Something tells me this cell needs a tornado warning.

Looks like it just got issued.

Cherokee County KS
Time: 2015-04-03T01:06:00Z UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: EMERGENCY MNGR
Remark: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT NORTHWEST 90TH AND BETHLEHEM RD.
Sailor missing 66 days rescued off North Carolina
USA Today 9 p.m. EDT April 2, 2015

A South Carolina sailor missing for 66 days was rescued Thursday in the Atlantic Ocean about 200 miles off Cape Hatteras, N.C., the U.S. Coast Guard announced.

Louis Jordan, 37, was spotted on his capsized 35-foot sailboat, Angel, by the container ship Houston Express. The German-flagged vessel took him aboard and notified the Coast Guard command center in Portsmouth, Va., about 1:30 p.m.

A Coast Guard MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter crew took off the air station in Elizabeth City, N.C., two hours later and transported Jordan to Sentara Norfolk General Hospital in Norfolk. Va. His condition was not immediately available.

In a phone call with his father, Jordan said, "I was just praying about you because I was afraid that you guys were crying and sad that, you know, I was dead. And I wasn't dead."
Full story
000
WWUS53 KSGF 030118
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
818 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

MOC011-097-030130-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150403T0130Z/
BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
818 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 816 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
JASPER...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. JASPER COUNTY DISPATCH
REPORTS A TORNADO ALONG THE BARTON AND JASPER COUNTY LINE NORTHWEST
OF THE TOWN OF JASPER.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVILLA...BOSTON...CARYTOWN...DUDENVILLE...GOLDEN CITY...IANTHA...
JASPER...KENOMA...LAMAR HEIGHTS...LAMAR...MAPLE GROVE AND OAKTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3752 9441 3750 9408 3745 9407 3744 9407
3744 9408 3736 9408 3717 9409 3733 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 277DEG 34KT 3741 9429

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$
Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Something tells me this cell needs a tornado warning.




Hey, that's what I said on Facebook chat!
Confirmed tornado is making a beeline for Jasper, MO.

Edit: Fortunately, It appears rotation has weakened quite a bit on the latest scan.
Quoting 157. sar2401:

A bigger issue for California when it comes to drought is power. You can do a lot with water conservation but that's not going to send water into the penstocks. Hydro provides about 13% of California's power, and about 25% of the peak load power. As soon as the water level drops below the intakes at the reservoirs, no more power.


Surely solar could contribute a fair deal to power in Cali? It (and other renewables) already contribute to a far less 'sunny' economy in the case of Germany. Maybe by using the Cali deserts and roof-panels they'd have enough energy to at least meet some of the state's needs as well as keeping some desal plants in operation... I suspect that intensive agriculture in Cali is on borrowed time though: not all of it at once, just a marked decline in productivity.

The south-west may not be able to solve a growing water problem but given their solar potential, they should ideally be able to trade some of those disadvantages for their clean energy. Optimistic, obviously.
Quoting 184. Bluestorm5:



Hey, that's what I said on Facebook chat!

Wow...how long ago was that?
Joplin is under tornado warning yet again. Rotation is not that impressive, but it's trying to get stronger with each passing minute.

Quoting 152. auspiv:


Which means they will be pumping groundwater faster than ever before.
And that is what will finally do in the agriculture in the Central Valley. They'll pump the aquifer down to virtually nothing as a replacement for the shut-off irrigation river water, before they realize they have to switch to a more water-conserving technology. When they finally switch there won't be any groundwater left to conserve. That's when the stuff will really hit the fan -- it'll be a blizzard instead of the current sprinkle. Wait for it.
Quoting 116. Skyzics:

Good comprehensive article. However, the 'Lake Powell surface elevation' figure (1,075 ft) is erroneous. The level as of April 1, 2015 is about 3,591 feet above sea level and dropping slowly. This is about 109 feet below the 'full pool' elevation of 3,700 feet, which is 45 percent of the water volume at full pool. The river surface elevation immediately downstream from Lake Powell, just below Glen Canyon Dam, is 3,132 feet.


Thanks for the catch, Skyzics. I used the Getty wire caption without double-checking the stats (whoops! :-) The statement has now been updated with links: "Lake Powell is currently at 45 percent of capacity and is projected to recover only slightly this year, ending up near 47 percent of capacity by September."
Folks in joplin take shelter now! Sirens are going off! Possible rain wrapped Tornado 5 miles south of golden city but nothing on the correlation coefficient.
Newest radar scan on the joplin storm shows rain-cooled air becoming more dominant so there'll be wind damage.
Funnel cloud has been reported near Webb City, MO.
My family back home in Carthage is taking cover now. Sirens are going off everywhere from the MO/KS border west of Joplin through Jasper at the moment.
Quoting 195. BleachwaterFox:

My family back home in Carthage is taking cover now. Sirens are going off everywhere from the MO/KS border west of Joplin through Jasper at the moment.



They've been going off in joplin for a while as shown on TWC. At this point joplin may see 70 mph gusts as the RFD comes through the area.
Quoting westscotweather:


Surely solar could contribute a fair deal to power in Cali? It (and other renewables) already contribute to a far less 'sunny' economy in the case of Germany. Maybe by using the Cali deserts and roof-panels they'd have enough energy to at least meet some of the state's needs as well as keeping some desal plants in operation... I suspect that intensive agriculture in Cali is on borrowed time though: not all of it at once, just a marked decline in productivity.

The south-west may not be able to solve a growing water problem but given their solar potential, they should ideally be able to trade some of those disadvantages for their clean energy. Optimistic, obviously.
The Mojave Desert is covered in solar plants. California has by far the most solar plants in the US, including the new Ivanpah plant about to come on line that will produce 392 megawatts of power. Once Ivanpah is online, total solar power production will be over 1,200 megawatts. By comparison, hydro plants produce about 13,663 megawatts. As you can see, solar has a long way to go before it catches up with hydro. Solar is also running into increasing land use and permitting issues, so it's not going to grow as fast over the next 10 years as it has over the last 10. Hydro produces power if it's cloudy or sunny, hot or cold. It will also produce peak load power on demand, something solar cannot do. For as much money as is being invested in California solar, it's nowhere near replacing hydro.
Quoting 196. TimTheWxMan:




They've been going off in joplin for a while as shown on TWC. At this point joplin may see 70 mph gusts as the RFD comes through the area.


I'm on the phone with them and everyone's saying it's east/southeast of Webb City/Purcell now. That's putting them right in the bullseye of the current track. Thankfully everybody is in the basement.
Quoting 198. BleachwaterFox:



I'm on the phone with them and everyone's saying it's east/southeast of Webb City/Purcell now. That's putting them right in the bullseye of the current track. Thankfully everybody is in the basement.



Ohhhh.. they're in carthage. The circulation seems like it'll be closer to fidelity. Carthage is in the hail core like you said.
Quoting BleachwaterFox:


I'm on the phone with them and everyone's saying it's east/southeast of Webb City/Purcell now. That's putting them right in the bullseye of the current track. Thankfully everybody is in the basement.
There are still more storms forming west of there. It's going to be a long night, I'm afraid.
Quoting 198. BleachwaterFox:



I'm on the phone with them and everyone's saying it's east/southeast of Webb City/Purcell now. That's putting them right in the bullseye of the current track. Thankfully everybody is in the basement.



A 3rd storm is near baxter springs moving ESE.
Another one going east from Lenapah, OK now
Quoting 112. TimSoCal:
It's not the only answer, but it's definitely a big part of making sure the inevitable "megadrought" doesn't cause anyone to completely run out of water. Part of the solution should also involve more re-use and reclamation of existing water resources.
Of course desal is not the only answer, and desal will work only where plants and pipelines are feasible.

A focus on solutions will help the drought more than gross depictions of the problems - as my far too subtle comment was meant to suggest. I read not too long ago of plans afoot to capture rainwater in Los Angeles. Bravo! Jaw-dropping to watch torrents run off the hills, down the streets and into storm drains. (Of course, you need rain first.)

Quoting 96. Barefootontherocks:
One word... "Desal"
One word Plastics... LOL

(Second quote added)
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** Space and the city: Poor land use in the world's greatest cities carries a huge cost

* Wiring the world below: A network of permanent observatories will soon monitor the oceans

*** The worlds beyond: The number of missions to the outer planets is about to dwindle


NASA's dark materials: America resumes production of plutonium-238 to keep space within reach

* What Physicists Are Looking for Now That They've Found the Higgs Boson

*** Climate-driven loss of habitat endangers marine mammals

*** DNA can't explain all inherited biological traits, research shows



!!! Astronomers watch unfolding saga of massive star formation



*** Widest possible photosynthesis, absorbing any color of sunlight, from oranges through near-infrared



Supernova 'crime scene,' shows single white dwarf to blame



!!! Adolescent drinking affects adult behavior through long-lasting changes in genes


Astronomers solve decades-long mystery of the lonely old stars

* Natural oil dispersion mechanism found for deep-ocean blowout

Canada passed on U.S.-Mexico climate announcement: sources

What if oil prices never bounce back?
Never?!

*** The whole globe is warming -- but look at how much of it is caused by the Northern Hemisphere

Earth, the Marvelous Blue Orb (with video)

Behind Each Breath, an Underappreciated Muscle


*** EPA Restricts Use of Pesticides Suspected of Killing Bees

Tracing climate change from a 14,000 year old core sample


* Malaysia's indigenous hit hard by deforestation
Quoting 202. BleachwaterFox:

Another one going east from Lenapah, OK now



New severe thunderstorm warning for joplin.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING KSC021-MOC097-145-030330- /O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0070.150403T0231Z-150403T0330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 931 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT * AT 930 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GALENA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AIRPORT DRIVE...BAXTER SPRINGS...CARTERVILLE...DIAMOND...DUENWEG... DUQUESNE...GALENA...GRANBY...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD... SAGINAW...SARCOXIE...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SILVER CREEK AND WEBB CITY. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 32 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. && A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LAT...LON 3712 9479 3715 9471 3717 9447 3717 9406 3687 9407 3687 9419 3692 9458 3693 9463 3700 9463 3699 9480 3701 9482 3707 9482 TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 275DEG 27KT 3707 9468 HAIL...1.50IN WIND...60MPH
Very strong rotation showing up on that cell northeast of Tulsa the last couple frames. Needs to be tornado-warned!
207. beell
Quoting 206. FlyingScotsman:

Very strong rotation showing up on that cell northeast of Tulsa the last couple frames. Needs to be tornado-warned!


Looks like outflow on base velocity-both of them.
I'll probably be eating crow in a few minutes, lol!


Quoting 207. beell:



Looks like outflow on base velocity-both of them.
I'll probably be eating crow in a few minutes, lol!





In any case, looks like that cell approaching the AR border will be the one to watch over the next hour; out ahead of the pack it can strengthen without interference.
Finally... storms! They're developing along the stalled frontal boundary and i'm starting to get some good lightning and thunder! About time!
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1002 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CRAIG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 959 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINITA...AND MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...AFTON...BERNICE...BERNICE
STATE PARK...FAIRLAND...HONEY CREEK STATE PARK...GROVE AND
WYANDOTTE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 286 AND 302.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. GO TO A DESIGNED SHELTER SUCH AS A SAFE ROOM OR STORM
CELLAR IF AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF SEEKING SHELTER
IN A BASEMENT...BE SURE TO GET BENEATH SOMETHING STURDY. IF IN A
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
They warned it, looks like.
Just got off work, anyone care to catch me up on how the storms are looking this evening?

213. beell
Mmmm....tasty!
Hope it stays radar-indicated only.
:)
Quoting 212. RyanSperrey:

Just got off work, anyone care to catch me up on how the storms are looking this evening?


Late to the "party" here. I see tornadoes have occurred in SE KS and SW MO and Storms are ongoing.
Link to storm reports - only good till 7 a.m.

Couple watches. Click there and you can see them.
Haven't been watching, so don't know where things are headed. Check local NWS office or other media - maybe your best bet.
Quoting 212. RyanSperrey:

Just got off work, anyone care to catch me up on how the storms are looking this evening?




I always check the College of DuPage Meteorology Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings page to get a feel when I'm coming in late. I think I got the link from someone here.
Good night peoples of the wu.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / SWRN MO / NWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

VALID 030312Z - 030445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO APPEARS HIGHEST OVER NERN OK AND THE OK/MO/AR BORDER REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO LESSEN WITH EWD EXTENT INTO S-CNTRL MO AND N-CNTRL AR LATER TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER STORM CLUSTER AND THERE REMAINS A TENDENCY FOR A PREFERRED DISCRETE MODE DESPITE STORM-SCALE MERGERS AND DOWNSTREAM PRECIP SEEDING. ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IS FOR LESS ORGANIZATION IN THE CYCLING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ACROSS NERN OK AND EXTREME SWRN MO DURING THE PAST 30-60 MIN...ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE E OF THE OK BORDER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOUTH-NORTH TONGUE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS OVER NERN OK WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE. A DECREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60 DEG F 25-50 MI E OF THE OK BORDER. KINX VAD SHOWS AROUND 550 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH VERSUS 280 M2/S2 AT KSGF USING OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. THE DECREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SMALLER HODOGRAPHS COUPLED TOGETHER ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE NOTION FOR LOWER TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO S-CNTRL MO AND FAR NRN AR.

NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR FROM NERN OK.

..SMITH.. 04/03/2015
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON CHEDENG
11:00 AM PhST April 3 2015
=============================

Typhoon 'CHEDENG" has weakened slightly as it moves towards the eastern coast of central and northern Luzon.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Chedeng [Maysak] (963 hPa) located at 14.2N 130.7E or 700 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gustiness up to 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1 (These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds)
-------------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur

Additional Information
===================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 150–200 km radius of the typhoon.

It is estimated to make landfall over the coast of Aurora-Isabela area by Sunday morning (April 5), will exit the landmass via Ilocos Sur by Sunday evening (April 5) and will exit PAR by Monday morning (April 6).

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PSWS #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Storm surges and sea surface waves of up to 2 meters are possible over the eastern coast of Aurora, Quezon and Isabela.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region and Visayas.

It is advised to refrain from outdoor activities particularly along beaches of the eastern section of Luzon starting Saturday.
We've seen at least a half dozen tornadoes today...one near the Colorado-Kansas border, one in Ohio, the recent one in Oklahoma, and three in Kansas. Most of these were brief and weak.
Disapointed with hurricane conference coverage. Impact no concern?
Buried somewhere below the drought and the tornadoes is the unfolding story of the super typhoons in the pacific. What I find interesting is SST temperatures, while warm, are below normal in the area.
Quoting 219. centex:

Disapointed with hurricane conference coverage. Impact no concern?




Well... there's severe weather going on right now so the blog's on storm alert right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We've seen at least a half dozen tornadoes today...one near the Colorado-Kansas border, one in Ohio, the recent one in Oklahoma, and three in Kansas. Most of these were brief and weak.
Are you sure about the one in Ohio? I haven't seen any severe weather reports from Ohio.


Seriously? The watch AND the warnings are just to my south (it's only for south county)? Well.... another repeat of last year in that sense. Goodnight.
Quoting 222. sar2401:

Are you sure about the one in Ohio? I haven't seen any severe weather reports from Ohio.



There was a tornado warning a couple of counties west of columbus about 1 1/2 ago.
Quoting yyyyyy:
Buried somewhere below the drought and the tornadoes is the unfolding story of the super typhoons in the pacific. What I find interesting is SST temperatures, while warm, are below normal in the area.
Where in the areas of the Pacific that have typhoons are SST's below normal?
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



There was a tornado warning a couple of counties west of columbus about 1 1/2 ago.
Columbus Indiana maybe? There are no severe weather reports of any kind in Ohio.

EDIT: I see it now, for Clark County, Ohio. There was a warning at 9:31 that was cancelled at 9:42. It sounds like it was a little sketchy to begin with and certainly no indication of an actual tornado.
Quoting 225. sar2401:

Where in the areas of the Pacific that have typhoons are SST's below normal?


Just like anime, true life solution now comes from Tokyo... L.A. should have build these instead of transporting water from Norcal!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Area_Ou ter_Underground_Discharge_Channel

Quoting 203. Barefootontherocks:

Of course desal is not the only answer, and desal will work only where plants and pipelines are feasible.

A focus on solutions will help the drought more than gross depictions of the problems - as my far too subtle comment was meant to suggest. I read not too long ago of plans afoot to capture rainwater in Los Angeles. Bravo! Jaw-dropping to watch torrents run off the hills, down the streets and into storm drains. (Of course, you need rain first.)

One word Plastics... LOL

(Second quote added)
Has there been borgot of conference? It's the core so I'm at a lose.
Quoting 219. centex:

Disapointed with hurricane conference coverage. Impact no concern?



JTWC might be a bit generous with this, it could very well dissipate to depression while crossing the northern coast of Kalusunan in the Philippines.



Quoting 222. sar2401:

Are you sure about the one in Ohio? I haven't seen any severe weather reports from Ohio.

Yeah. It was very brief, but there was a defined couplet and tornado debris signature for one scan.

Careful BB - You will offend Taz.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 March 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

During February 2015, El Niño conditions were observed as the above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1) became weakly coupled to the tropical atmosphere. The latest weekly Niño indices were +0.6oC in the Niño-3.4 region and +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, and near zero in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies increased (Fig. 3) associated with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in positive subsurface anomalies across most of the Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with weak coupling, the frequency and strength of low-level westerly wind anomalies increased over the equatorial Pacific during the last month and a half (Fig. 5). At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds persisted across the east-central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative for two consecutive months. Convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and near average around the Date Line (Fig. 6). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5oC) will continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 7). This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


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Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: March 5, 2015 Disclaimer
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this cell has been pretty impressive
Tornado possible in Southern Joplin. Sirens are sounding via CNN with power flashes being reported. 4:10am.



... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for Newton County until 330 am
CDT...


At 311 am CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Granby... and moving east at 60 mph.


Hazard... tornado and Golf Ball size hail.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond... Fairview... Granby... Neosho... Newtonia... Ritchey... Stark
City... Stella and Wentworth.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Tornadoes are difficult to see and confirm at night. Take cover now.
ESPI now at 0.91. Impressive as it appears we are going to end this 18 year drought of no Strong El-Nino over the next few months.

Quoting 162. sar2401:

Good heavens! Sorry, all the formatting makes it impossible to quote most of your post because (for some reason) my reply font becomes white on white and disappears. You certainly put some effort into formatting. I'll have to read through everything about 20 times to try to figure it out but there's some merit to the idea that weather on one part of the earth has to be balanced by opposite weather on another part of the earth. If weather didn't try to revert to the mean the human race would never have developed. It's too bad my late wife isn't around to read your posts (although maybe she can - who knows?). She believed in sweat lodges and chakras. I'm just too cynical to go along with it but her beliefs were hers and I tried not interfere.

As far as Radar Dog, I can tell you don't have a dog, especially a dog with big floppy ears. The only way earmuffs would work is if I tied up his ears and then put the earmuffs underneath his ears. Believe it or not, even when I tell Radar Dog it's for his own good, he just doesn't cooperate. I really don't believe it's just the sound of thunder anyway. If you want something nutty, Radar Dog really is a storm detector. He starts getting nervous and scuffling all over the house at least an hour before any storms hit. When I see him doing that, I know it's time to check the real radar. I don't know if he's sensing air pressure changes or maybe static charges changing before a thunderstorm, but he picks up something. That already has him upset before the storm ever gets here. The only things that sorta works is getting him in my dark and windowless bathroom with his bed until the storms pass, poor guy.

When it comes to the next 72 hours, nothing is going to happen here. Any severe weather at all is going to be in northwest Alabama. When it comes to further out, next week might be a better setup, but this week was supposed to be a good setup, and the results so far are pretty disappointing. So far today in Alabama there are two storm reports - quarter size hail and two trees fell over, both north of Birmingham and, of course, zero rain.


Had to chime in on the Radar Dog. I know plenty of people who have dogs who report this exact same thing. I seem to have the exact opposite. My dog is completely oblivious to thunderstorms. Multiple times when the radar says the hail/trees snapping downdraft/possible tornado will be at our house in minutes and the thunder is so loud you swear the windows will shatter, he decides he wants to go out and poop. He will squat in a driving downpour with tree branches hitting the ground like there is absolutely nothing going on. Conversely, if I open the closet door where the vacuum cleaner is stored, within seconds he is in the basement behind the boiler, go figure!
This Friday is the 35-year anniversary of a climate change preview from Walter Cronkite and CBS News.

On April 3, 1980, Cronkite tossed to a news piece from CBS veteran Nelson Benton. Thirty-five years ago, for two and half minutes – an eternity even then by TV news standards and a near-impossibility today – a broadcast anchored by The Most Trusted Man in America tried to warn us about climate change.

Actually, "climate change" wasn’t mentioned in Benton's piece, but CO2, "global warming" and the "Greenhouse Effect" were. "Scientists," intoned Benton, "and a few politicians are beginning to worry."

Read more >>

hello t.d5. w.pac. thank god for cronkite. if he wasnt a free thinker we'd still be fighting the commies in viet nam
243. vis0
CREDIT:: NWS-Radar through erau.edu (hope erau change the orange outline to cyan, orange obscures severe weather represented by radar orange.)
D&T:: on animation (radar key 1st & last frames)
image host

CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu though these specific colours are not a ColLow product.
D&T:: on animation
image host



As to the blogbytes subject i am trying to use my Galacsics knowledge and see (at only 40% confidence) that the next weather trend begins Sat but not inn place till next  wed April 8th something Mr.Henson mentioned & sar2401 mentioned, again only 40% sure and weird enough it'll be the 3rd weather anomaly in 2 months after El Niño builds up at the wrong time, TS form early in ePac & this adds moisture but not in a direct path from Niño...i think we should call El Niño, Denise the Menace fer ya youngsters Lil' wayne...yo-yo...by Duncan, i had 2, one that had batteries not just to glow at night but to fly out and hit people in the head. ...oops did i cause the bkgnd change in the dropdown of 's. In the COLow images watch as that Ok. lone cell(s) take in outflow from its east (white colours) and spit it out SW. Back to observing weather
stay alert folks in these area's today............................................. ...............
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-0410 30-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
517 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM WAYNESBORO
MISSISSIPPI TO CAMDEN IN ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND MEDIUM TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$
Quoting 133. Abacosurf:

Ok man!! You won! Good job! Still find it hard to imagine a 3 year drought being more severe than a 200 year one.
Boy I sure am thirsty...
There also wasn't 20 some million people living in California during that drought. It's all about to many people in such a small area.
248. vis0

Quoting 231. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah. It was very brief, but there was a defined couplet and tornado debris signature for one scan.


Remember that weird flow east of Sar2401 YESTERDAY>>     image host      <<YESTERDAY this is why i was worried for those from Ill to Washington DC (mini tornado alley-east) as that energy going N might trigger spinning. The Ok came or was boosted by a mini LOw coming off the CA coast turning eastward north of SF, Ca. 36 hrs ago as posted 36 hrs ago..

It would have been great to see figure 4 as estimated days of water reserves with and without water restrictions.
People tend to forget that the rain giveth and the evaporation taketh away. So rain in the hot season is much less helpful to the water supply than rain in cooler seasons since less of it gets to hang
250. vis0
In the US we'd add this... image host
(img is of the "Compact" Muon Solenoid, a massive particle detector for the Large Hadron Collider - Photographer: Luca Locatelli/INSTITUTE. Weird enuff its the same as the factory mold used to build washing machines for NFL teams.)

Go observe weather
251. MahFL
Quoting 247. NativeSun:

There also wasn't 20 some million people living in California during that drought. It's all about to many people in such a small area.


No it's not, most of the water is used by farmers. The problem is a lack of rain/snow.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T1504)
21:00 PM JST April 3 2015
====================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (965 hPa) located at 14.1N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center in northern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 16.0N 123.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.1N 119.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) In Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 20.0N 117.5E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Some nice rain moving into west Virginia. Maybe it will come to Maryland. I climbed a mountain yesterday, so.. let it rain. =D

Quoting 251. MahFL:


No it's not, most of the water is used by farmers. The problem is a lack of rain/snow.


Us farmers over here in Maryland use almost no water. We rely on the rain to do it for us. Very interesting to see such a difference over there. Maybe someone should try to develop crops that take much less water than normal..
Happy Good Friday for the believers and Peace to All the Rest............................

Here is the current SPC summary for today and relative position of the jet per GFS:

Severe thunderstorms are expected today from southern West Virginia across the
Tennessee Valley region to the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging gusts, large hail and
a few tornadoes are possible. A marginal, more conditional potential for severe weather
extends from that swath eastward across the Delmarva region and southwestward over
South Texas.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN KY TO NERN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE SWRN WV TO WRN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE SRN NJ/DELMARVA TO S
TX...


And the current look for Conus:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic

Yesterday's count;

The best thing on TWC is Dr. Greg Forbes and he is "The Man" when it comes to severe weather analysis. But I will note (just my personal opinion) that TWC is generally used to more tornadoes in March and while were have been extremely fortunate so far this year, that TWC, prior to the more pronounced tornado threats recently, have been "chasing" lots of run of the mill thunderstorms.

A little too much for me having reporters in the field several days in the last week "live reporting" thunderstorms; if that becomes the new norm for TWC in the future, then they might as well have a reporter in the Everglades every day in August in South Florida filming the reeds blowing out there as the normal afternoon boomers form and move towards the East Coast....................................... :)

yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic
260. MahFL
Cloud tops are cooling again on Maytak.

261. MahFL
Quoting 256. Torito:



Maybe someone should try to develop crops that take much less water than normal..


Like no one in the agri industry has ever thought about that ?
Quoting 261. MahFL:



Like no one in the agri industry has ever thought about that ?


My in-law was an accountant for one of the large multi-national AG companies (commodities ranging from cotton to coffee/wheat) and that is exactly what they do. They have a research facility in Africa where they clone/research more water resistant crop strains. The basic goal is to achieve the greatest caloric bang for the buck using the least amount of water. He noted that live-stock produces the most expensive caloric bang for the buck, because of the need to supply water to the animals, and that in a future low-water world (or drought conditions) that the most efficient diet would be a vegetarian one based on water resistant strains.
I remember the year Mike Bettes chased tornadoes with the crew out of OU (can't remember the chaser/professor) he was with (very well known in the field).
Anyways, they drove all over the Plains for a month and didn't see one tornado. Then on Mike's last day in the field they caught the tornado in S.E. Wyoming(one of the most documented tornadoes in history at the time).

Beautiful day here in Louisiana. Partly cloudy, currently 73, headed to 85.

Early this morning was nice and quiet as well, at first I was puzzled as to why. Woke up to birds singing, and no school buses (the neighborhood pickup point for multiple schools is in front of my house, and the pickups start around 6:10). Kids being off for Good Friday had slipped my mind.

Quoting 251. MahFL:



No it's not, most of the water is used by farmers. The problem is a lack of rain/snow.
Wrong. You stated the problem in your first sentence. The problem is more demand for water than there is available water. When you use all the available water in a period of wet weather, including water that should be available to other users and also should be held in reserve for dry periods, the dry periods cause the current problem. You can't run a successful business based on what resources you think might be available in the future.
Quoting 263. Sfloridacat5:

I remember the year Mike Bettes chased tornadoes with the crew out of OU (can't remember the chaser/professor) he was with (very well known in the field).
Anyways, they drove all over the Plains for a month and didn't see one tornado. Then on Mike's last day in the field they caught the tornado in S.E. Colorado (one of the most documented tornadoes in history at the time).




Yep that was Vortex 2 Chasing on June 2nd 2009. I remember watching that on TWC as it was forming.
Come September, Miami and NOLA will be seeing the 50th anniversary of Hurricane Betsy.


My first Major in 1965.

I'll be doing a restrospective entry on that soon.



Betsy was the US first "billion dollar" cane.
Quoting 267. Patrap:

Come September, Miami and NOLA will be seeing the 50th anniversary of Hurricane Betsy.


My first Major in 1965.

I'll be doing a restrospective entry on that soon.



Betsy was the US first "billion dollar" cane.


I went through Donna when I was two in Miami. I have no memories of it at all.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yep that was Vortex 2 Chasing on June 2nd 2009. I remember watching that on TWC as it was forming.


That was it.
Here's Mike on the Today Show describing the event.
And it was S.E. Wyoming. I thought it was Co.
Rare Look Inside A Tornado Caught On Tape (VIDEO)
Link

The second video after the tornado video is on the California drought. I thought that was interesting.
Quoting 262. weathermanwannabe:


My in-law was an accountant for one of the large multi-national AG companies (commodities ranging from cotton to coffee/wheat) and that is exactly what they do. They have a research facility in Africa where they clone/research more water resistant crop strains. The basic goal is to achieve the greatest caloric bang for the buck using the least amount of water. He noted that live-stock produces the most expensive caloric bang for the buck, because of the need to supply water to the animals, and that in a future low-water world (or drought conditions) that the most efficient diet would be a vegetarian one based on water resistant strains.


I agree with the livestock issue. Our farm is very energy efficient, with about 80% of our power coming from wind and solar, and our cows are offered exactly .7 gallons of water per day to limit excessive water intake, and loss of resources. We are also mainly organic, for fertilizer we use waste instead of lime/other hazardous, unnatural chemicals. Water is protected by levi-like barriers between our streams, keeping the waste that washes away out. Honestly, this isn't that hard to do, we are self sufficient without waste, something that everyone should be trying to do, instead of wasting water and polluting the water we do have.
267. Patrap
10:33 AM EDT on April 03, 2015


I was 4, and barely remember my parents keeping me away from the windows. Then I saw what I thought was my first UFO sighting the next day (a hovering red and white object). It was a Coast Guard Sikorsky from back in the day surveying the area:


So annoying, hate this. What a bad time for a dry spell like this to happen right after I planted 12 new saplings in my neighborhood median plus other trees that are still young. Have to water them manually everyday and takes such a long time.

Something about a nice soaking rain that a tree responds to very well.
Finally got the first pea and lettuce transplants in yesterday in College Park MD. March was tough on my overwintering spinach and broccoli. Alternating warmth and deep cold is worse than continuous cold for many plants.

Neighborhood plum trees are finally blooming 4/2. Normal is around 3/10. And daffodils are now generally out even in unprotected spots. But the season remains way retarded, two to three weeks. Looking normal to cool for the next week although today, with humid lows in the low 60s, was very warm and digging was hot work this AM.


Quoting 270. Torito:



I agree with the livestock issue. Our farm is very energy efficient, with about 80% of our power coming from wind and solar, and our cows are offered exactly .7 gallons of water per day to limit excessive water intake, and loss of resources. We are also mainly organic, for fertilizer we use waste instead of lime/other hazardous, unnatural chemicals. Water is protected by levi-like barriers between our streams, keeping the waste that washes away out. Honestly, this isn't that hard to do, we are self sufficient without waste, something that everyone should be trying to do, instead of wasting water and polluting the water we do have.

0.7 gal/day seems really low. Growing up on a farm, we gave our cows much more than that. I just checked a few ag sites, and they all varied a bit, depending on the age of cow, type (dairy, pregnant, etc), temperature and feed. One site said 20, another said 3-30 (using a rule of thumb of roughly 1 gpd for each 100 pounds in cold weather, and 2 gpd per 100 pounds in hot weather).
Quoting 274. LAbonbon:

0.7 gal/day seems really low. Growing up on a farm, we gave our cows much more than that. I just checked a few ag sites, and they all varied a bit, depending on the age of cow, type (dairy, pregnant, etc), temperature and feed. One site said 20, another said 3-30 (using a rule of thumb of roughly 1 gpd for each 100 pounds in cold weather, and 2 gpd per 100 pounds in hot weather).


Yes. however, they also have grazing time, and there is a well that taps into the stream, which is always full. kind of like a cattle trough that is always full, but never empties unless if we drain it, which happens when it is getting kind of dirty. The .7gpd number we have is what they receive inside of the barn, where the water is not accessible (like night time when they come inside.) So, in reality, the .7gpd is what we are USING on them, the rest is being recycled through nature. Much better than those 2gpd averages, that's over a 50% cutback on water use from wells/reservoirs.
277. MahFL
Quoting 265. CaneFreeCR:

Wrong. You stated the problem in your first sentence. The problem is more demand for water than there is available water. When you use all the available water in a period of wet weather, including water that should be available to other users and also should be held in reserve for dry periods, the dry periods cause the current problem. You can't run a successful business based on what resources you think might be available in the future.



Actually there is still water available, non of the reservoirs are actually empty.
278. MahFL
For northern CA:
"The cold air with this system could bring snow levels down to
around 3500 feet in the Sierra, and possibly less that 3000 feet
in the southern Cascades. The mountains could see additional
snowfall of 4 to 8 inches Tuesday and overnight with up to 12
inches over highest elevations. "
279. MahFL
CA gets soaked !, well not quite.....

Quoting 279. MahFL:

CA gets soaked !, well not quite.....




We'll take it.
Typhoon Maysak

Typhoon Maysak
Last Updated Apr 3, 2015 12 GMT
Location 14.2N 129.1E Movement W
Wind 95 MPH
Local Weather on April 03, 2015 noon time
Cloudy
East Haven, Connecticut
55 °F
Cloudy
Quoting 277. MahFL:



Actually there is still water available, non of the reservoirs are actually empty.
Yep. Do you remember "Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without"?
Quoting 272. opal92nwf:

So annoying, hate this. What a bad time for a dry spell like this to happen right after I planted 12 new saplings in my neighborhood median plus other trees that are still young. Have to water them manually everyday and takes such a long time.

Something about a nice soaking rain that a tree responds to very well.


I remember April/May as being dry most of the time the three springs I spent in TLH 1985-87. Rainy season began in early June.

I've also noticed my growing plants respond better to reasonable amounts of rain than to watering.
Greetings all.
Strange things going on in the southern Caribbean (Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados to name a few) with literally thousands of cubic yards of Sargassum weed (sea weed) coming ashore.
Some resorts are using heavy equipment to clear the beaches, and the smell of the stuff decomposing is real strong.

We should be collecting it for fertiliser.
Quoting 285. pottery:

Greetings all.
Strange things going on in the southern Caribbean (Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados to name a few) with literally thousands of cubic yards of Sargassum weed (sea weed) coming ashore.
Some resorts are using heavy equipment to clear the beaches, and the smell of the stuff decomposing is real strong.

We should be collecting it for fertiliser.


The Westerlies really appear to be on the move down there; I suppose you might be needing some rain too?

287. MahFL
Quoting 285. pottery:

We should be collecting it for fertiliser.


As with a lot of bloggers idea's this one turns out to be not a good idea.

" There isn’t much use for the Sargassum as it does not make for an economically feasible fertiliser."
Interesting... the SPC has "predictability too low" for days 4-8 every day. We might want to watch for severe weather monday-friday!
Quoting 285. pottery:

Greetings all.
Strange things going on in the southern Caribbean (Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados to name a few) with literally thousands of cubic yards of Sargassum weed (sea weed) coming ashore.
Some resorts are using heavy equipment to clear the beaches, and the smell of the stuff decomposing is real strong.

We should be collecting it for fertiliser.
Greetings Pot..You could make a fortune off that here in AZ. Drop off a few dump -trucks loads at my front gate.
That was Galveston's beaches last year. seem to be much improved so far this year.
Quoting pottery:
Greetings all.
Strange things going on in the southern Caribbean (Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados to name a few) with literally thousands of cubic yards of Sargassum weed (sea weed) coming ashore.
Some resorts are using heavy equipment to clear the beaches, and the smell of the stuff decomposing is real strong.

We should be collecting it for fertiliser.
Looks like we might get one last band in noon hour here in S C IL, very light green approaching us, is some orange in the N part that's approaching Spfld, no lightning though. N winds are firmly in control, temps have dropped about 4 degrees in last hour, station to my SW at 50, to my N at 48. Blowing at 15-20 w/ gusts around 30, press rising to near 30", dew pts in mid upper 30s. Should have frost, borderline freeze tonight, then clear cool weekend. Most day/evenings in 7 day show good chances of thunderstorms, highs in 60s, lows in 50s. Daffodils out, will have to go see if any little grey morels are popping up after these rains, bigger ones shouldn't be too far behind, then yellows.
Another 10% today. Latest outlook is mentioning the potential for a strong tornado or two.


...and a tornado watch is likely going to be issued shortly.

293. JRRP
here comes the dust... 2015


2014

2013
The rain is finally making its self useful.Some of the pollen will be washed out of the air both today and tomorrow and actually my allergies are not as server as they were all week long.
Quoting 287. MahFL:



As with a lot of bloggers idea's this one turns out to be not a good idea.

" There isn’t much use for the Sargassum as it does not make for an economically feasible fertiliser."
Mix the seaweed with my tumbleweed and free range cow manure. Excellent compost!!
70/50 tornado probs with this watch. Definitely nothing to sneeze at.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 22
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SE
IL INTO NE AR. AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCV AND
CONTINUED INFLOW OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR BENEATH
FAST...LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCTD SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE. SETUP
COULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO STRONGER TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WIND.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...CORFIDI
Interesting stats from Noaa (link below) on tornado climatology for the US: Texas and Kansas at the top of the list.



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extr eme-events/us-tornado-climatology
Quoting 275. Torito:



Yes. however, they also have grazing time, and there is a well that taps into the stream, which is always full. kind of like a cattle trough that is always full, but never empties unless if we drain it, which happens when it is getting kind of dirty. The .7gpd number we have is what they receive inside of the barn, where the water is not accessible (like night time when they come inside.) So, in reality, the .7gpd is what we are USING on them, the rest is being recycled through nature. Much better than those 2gpd averages, that's over a 50% cutback on water use from wells/reservoirs.

That's better :) For a bit there I was worried you had a very thirsty herd...
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1151 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1119 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
Quoting 287. MahFL:



As with a lot of bloggers idea's this one turns out to be not a good idea.

" There isn’t much use for the Sargassum as it does not make for an economically feasible fertiliser."

Well, that surely depends on what ''economically viable'' means.
If I can drive my truck to the beach (30 minutes), with a pitchfork, and load a couple hundred pounds for free, it's pretty viable.
Quoting 295. Wolfberry:

Mix the seaweed with my tumbleweed and free range cow manure. Excellent compost!!

Sounds good.
CWG has a article on the storm surge product use that will be experimental this hurricane season and if a success will be used as a permanent feature at the end of 2016
Link
Quoting 296. Ameister12:

70/50 tornado probs with this watch. Definitely nothing to sneeze at.

(snip)

Where does the 70/50 come from?
Quoting 290. fireflymom:

That was Galveston's beaches last year. seem to be much improved so far this year.


Yeah, it all depends upon the variation in ocean currents.
The Sargassum starts life in the GOM, and drifts out into the Atlantic to become a major ecological benefit in the sargasso Sea.
Sustains a lot of life out there.

Currents then either keep it in place there, or disperse it all over the Atlantic.
Vital stuff !
Quoting 289. Wolfberry:

Greetings Pot..You could make a fortune off that here in AZ. Drop off a few dump -trucks loads at my front gate.

Yep. I guess you don't get much seaweed where you are.
What a strange world we live in .

:):))
As noted on the radar and satt loops, the US jet is booking along pretty fast today over the current watch areas and the most recent update from SPC note projected 60 mph winds close to the surface as the system moves towards the NE. Independent of the potential tornado threat this afternoon, folks are going to get lots of strong straight-line winds as the front pushes through. Hopefully, it will be a quick, rather than prolonged, frontal passage.

Quoting 307. pottery:


Yep. I guess you don't get much seaweed where you are.
What a strange world we live in .

:):))


Those landlocked US states don't see much seaweed...

"They" are finding all sorts or great benefits from seaweed up here in Alaska. They would be scientists and doctors.
Quoting 309. Dakster:



Those landlocked US states don't see much seaweed...

"They" are finding all sorts or great benefits from seaweed up here in Alaska. They would be scientists and doctors.

Not surprised.
It's generally good stuff.
We make a beverage from one kind here.
It's dried in the sun, then washed with plenty water, then turned into a drink.
Full of all kinds of goodness.
Drink is known locally as Sea Moss.
Last line about here, was spitting as came back to work, doubt it will add much to the .4" my gauge had in it from last night and this morning. Definitely can feel that N wind chill now, much different than this morning. Hopefully last sub freezing of the spring tomorrow morning?
Quoting 310. pottery:


Not surprised.
It's generally good stuff.
We make a beverage from one kind here.
It's dried in the sun, then washed with plenty water, then turned into a drink.
Full of all kinds of goodness.
Drink is known locally as Sea Moss.
I have had smoothies infused with seaweed and its really good.
Quoting 308. weathermanwannabe:

As noted on the radar and satt loops, the US jet is booking along pretty fast today over the current watch areas and the most recent update from SPC note projected 60 mph winds close to the surface as the system moves towards the NE. Independent of the potential tornado threat this afternoon, folks are going to get lots of strong straight-line winds as the front pushes through. Hopefully, it will be a quick, rather than prolonged, frontal passage.





There's also cape of about 1000 J/KG in middle KY and TN. Like you said, there's a strong upper level jet over the watch area. That jet stream and CAPE come together over western KY and TN. There are also dewpoints in the lower 60s in that area so this system has moisture to play with unlike last week's storms.
Quoting 311. dabirds:

Last line about here, was spitting as came back to work, doubt it will add much to the .4" my gauge had in it from last night and this morning. Definitely can feel that N wind chill now, much different than this morning. Hopefully last sub freezing of the spring tomorrow morning?



I got .91 inches of rain.
Quoting fireflymom:
That was Galveston's beaches last year. seem to be much improved so far this year.


I used to live on North Padre Island near Corpus Christi.
That stuff would wash up on the beach 3 feet deep and 20 feet wide. You couldn't even get in the water.
Thank God we don't get all that stuff over here in S.W. Florida.
I've always said, everything in the GOM washes up on Texas beaches.
Quoting 305. LAbonbon:


Where does the 70/50 come from?

Hover over "Probabilities" and then scroll down.
SST off the Peruvian contjnues to show signs of cooling. could be a warm La Nina in the making. It looks like some El Nino fans make have to eat ' CORBEAU'.
Quoting 316. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hover over "Probabilities" and then scroll down.

Thank you!
Quoting 314. TimTheWxMan:




I got .91 inches of rain.
Good, we've had plenty and w/ 4 days of Tstorms in forecast, 1/2 inch good enough for me. Hopefully, ILwthr received as much or more than you, they've been short in E central I guess.

Looks like slight chance of rain Sun night in Chicago, hopefully won't affect Opener.
Quoting stoormfury:
SST off the Peruvian contjnues to show signs of cooling. could be a warm La Nina in the making. It looks like some El Nino fans make have to eat ' CORBEAU'.



I don't think so
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
156 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 155 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSS
PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PORTLAND AROUND 200 PM CDT.
WESTMORELAND AROUND 215 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE OAK GROVE AND BETHPAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Didn't have a chance to read Mr. Henson's blog post yesterday, but was able to find some time today. And wow, lots and lots of info. Did he set a record with the number of links, perhaps? I didn't click on all of them, but I'm glad I clicked on the one 'lagged in forcing public disclosure of groundwater use'. I don't know if anyone had a chance to take a look at it, but it is soooo worth it. Here's the link again:

Groundwater Data: California's Missing Metrics
"When it comes to groundwater data collection, California lags far behind other western states, most of which have much stricter disclosure requirements for water users. All this despite the fact that California pumps more groundwater annually than any other state in the US."

It's from the Water in the West website, and is one of a series of articles about California's groundwater.

After reading through the page (also loaded with links), I'm a bit flabbergasted at the situation that California is in. Frankly, I've always viewed California as a leader in so many areas, but in its groundwater management and data availability, I'm a bit speechless that the state is so behind the times. From the webpage it appears recent (December 2014) legislation will attempt to rectify the situation.

For anyone interested in California's water worries, I highly recommend giving this a read through.

(To be clear, I'm not dogging California, I've got a lot of respect for the state when it comes to environmental leadership in general.)

Anyway, I'm a bit late, but great blog, Mr. Henson!
Storms have been training over the same area. Lots of Flash Flood Warnings in progress.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BULLITT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE...
SOUTHERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN SPENCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE
WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CORYDON...JEFFERSONVILLE...NEW
ALBANY...MIDDLETOWN...SHEPHERDSVILLE...

IN ADDITION...GEORGETOWN...RIVER BLUFF AND ORCHARD GRASS HILLS ARE
INCLUDED IN THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THIS WARNING...
POPE LICK CREEK OVERFLOWS ONTO BLACKTHORN ROAD.
CHENOWETH RUN OVERFLOWS AT INTERSECTION OF RUCKRIEGEL PARKWAY AND
WATTERSON TRAIL.
From Nasa Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for April 3, 2015:

Diminished Snow Pack in the Sierra Nevada


acquired March 27, 2010

acquired March 29, 2015

In California and other states, snowfall is critical to fresh water supplies. In the mostly arid climate west of the Rockies, snow cover laid down on the mountains in winter is a liquid checking account that is usually drawn down each summer and fall when rainfall is sparse. As California heads into another year of drought, the snow-white bank account in the mountains is unusually low on funds.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured these natural-color images of the snow cover in the Sierra Nevada in California and Nevada. The top image was acquired on March 27, 2010, the last year with average winter snowfall in the region. The second image was acquired on March 29, 2015. In addition to the significantly depleted snow cover, note the change of color in the Central Valley of California and the lack of snow in the interior of Nevada. (Most of the white in 2015 is cloud cover.)

Read more (includes a sliding image comparison tool)
Have to be honest, I'm not quite sure what the SPC is seeing in going with a 70/50 Tornado watch. Current storms look pretty anemic, and thermodynamics in the area over the next few hours don't look that impressive either.

Yesterday's cells in KS/OK/MO were far more impressive, even if they couldn't get much sustained spin going.
Fort Myers Beach
Clear, 85 degrees
Water Temperature 75

Quoting 328. Sfloridacat5:

Fort Myers Beach
Clear, 85 degrees
Water Temperature 75


sure is one beautiful day here alright
330. beell
.
Quoting 203. Barefootontherocks:
....(snip)
A focus on solutions will help the drought more than gross depiction ....(snip)

I think both are needed. A few remain clueless and many more would be happy to kick the can (of long term solutions) down the road at the first hint of relief. It's a common problem in many contexts - not preparing for events that haven't happened in living memory.
Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



The people who live in Beverly Hills Ca. can only water their lawns 3 days per week. How terrible it must be.

Worst drought (intensity) in the history of California and they can still water their lawns 3 days per week?
2015 Water use schedule
Link
Link

Most the places I've lived we've only been able to water our lawns twice a week and we weren't in a severe/historic drought.

The new framework for increased restrictions was only announced 2 days ago and the exact regulations need to be worked out. Also districts that have not conserved much so far do NOT get a free pass.

California drought restrictions FAQ: What the governor's executive water order means for you | 89.3 KPCC

....(snip)

The state Water Resources Control Board still needs to translate the governor's pronouncements into actionable regulations. But once those are set, average Joe and Jane water users are more likely to start feeling the squeeze — particularly those in communities that use more water than others.

Below are the details as we know them, brought to you in a user-friendly FAQ.

What are the new restrictions and when do they go into effect?

As mentioned, the governor is looking to cut urban water use by 25 percent by the end of next February. There are 411 urban water districts in the California, and the 25 percent reduction will be drawn from all of them combined. The reduction itself will be measured against a baseline of the aggregated water use for the combined districts for the calendar year 2013.

Fran Spivy-Weber is the vice chairwoman for the Water Resources Control Board. She told KPCC that water board staff is expected to draft and get public comments on a suite of new regulations in time for the water board's May 5-6 meeting. If they are approved, the new regulations would take effect June 1, Spivy-Weber said.

Will I have to reduce my personal water use by 25 percent?

The details are still in the works, but it's expected that each individual water district will work to reduce water use among its customers, though not necessarily all by 25 percent. Spivy-Weber told KPCC that the 411 urban water districts will be broken out into "buckets." Those with higher per-capita water use and few or no conservation programs will be put into buckets with a higher reduction goal. Those with lower per-capita use and robust conservation initiatives will be put into buckets with lower goals.

“Some have been working very diligently on cutting back their water use and they have done a fabulous job," Spivy-Weber said. "They should not be expected to cut back nearly to the extent to someone who hasn’t done anything yet.

"Some districts may have already cut a lot so they may only be asked to cut back 10 percent and another may have done little and need to cut 30 percent."

Richard Stapler, a spokesman with the state Water Resources Board, told KPCC that districts that miss the goal of their bucket could be fined $10,000 a day starting March 1, 2016.

“So there is an incentive to really get those restrictions in place," Stapler said.

....(snip)
Read more of the FAQs...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T1504)
3:00 AM JST April 4 2015
====================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (975 hPa) located at 14.3N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 16.7N 122.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.5N 119.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) In Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 20.0N 117.5E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Quoting 327. FlyingScotsman:

Have to be honest, I'm not quite sure what the SPC is seeing in going with a 70/50 Tornado watch. Current storms look pretty anemic, and thermodynamics in the area over the next few hours don't look that impressive either.

Yesterday's cells in KS/OK/MO were far more impressive, even if they couldn't get much sustained spin going.

The tornado threat will ramp up over the next few hours as some destabilization occurs. Today isn't incredibly unstable—CAPE values should remain in the vicinity of 750-1000j/kg—but dewpoints are sufficient (in the low to mid-60s) and effective bulk shear is near 60kt. One important difference between yesterday and today is that low-level wind shear is stronger; there's 25-30kt of 0-1km shear compared to <15kt 0-1km shear yesterday. This should help low-level rotation remain sustained at least longer than it was yesterday.
335. beell
Quoting 330. beell:



Although tornadoes don't really care how big a state is, the prize goes to Kansas with approximately 4.5 tornadoes/km2 (213,096 km2).

Texas is lagging with a meager 2.23 tornadoes/km2 ((696,241 km2)



beell needs to go back to school.
Freelance photographer/writer Brad Holland documented the devastation on Ulithi. Homes were destroyed and trees were downed, and only one working bathroom was operational on the island Thursday, according to Holland.

"There's no account in these people's history of a storm like this, and the damage is immeasurable," said Holland in a Facebook post Thursday. "All that is left to survive on is what can be salvaged from what didn't blow away. There's no boat to go fishing. Every big tree that had anything good on it is upside down. There's enough water to have 1 quart per day, per person. One quart a day on an island with no shade and nothing but work to do."


Link
Quoting 330. beell:



Although tornadoes don't really care how big a state is, the prize goes to Kansas with approximately 4.5 tornadoes/km2 (213,096 km2).

Texas is lagging with a meager 2.23 tornadoes/km2 ((696,241 km2)


Well, that's because Kansas has a greater percentage of yellow brick roads than any other US state.
Quoting 334. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The tornado threat will ramp up over the next few hours as some destabilization occurs. Today isn't incredibly unstable—CAPE values should remain in the vicinity of 750-1000j/kg—but dewpoints are sufficient (in the low to mid-60s) and effective bulk shear is near 60kt. One important difference between yesterday and today is that low-level wind shear is stronger; there's 25-30kt of 0-1km shear compared to <15kt 0-1km shear yesterday. This should help low-level rotation remain sustained at least longer than it was yesterday.


Thanks, helpful summary. I'm still very much a novice when it comes to analyzing these matters. Storm coverage is definitely starting to increase, so it'll be interesting to see if/when any mature supercells can develop.



Interesting. Think the SPC will issue a 30% risk area in their day 4-8 outlook at any point?


Hi, WU-friends. Today European weather websites admire the dust devil above, recorded near Perth at Wanneroo/Australia. Originally posted in HD at:
Perth Weather Live, ** EPIC WILLY WILLY/DUST DEVIL **, VIDEO © Rikky Alan Gibbons, Language WARNING, Captured from near Wanneroo this afternoon!
Quoting 338. FlyingScotsman:



Thanks, helpful summary. I'm still very much a novice when it comes to analyzing these matters. Storm coverage is definitely starting to increase, so it'll be interesting to see if/when any mature supercells can develop.


And sure enough, in the last twenty minutes, a number of in western TN and KY are starting to get "that look."
Park photovoltaic plants of Colle Mees

The photovoltaic power plants of Colle Mees is the largest fleet of solar power plants in France with six plants in operation since 2011 and two in 2012, in the municipality of Les Mees in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur . The park covers about 200 hectares with electrical power total 100 million toilets and feeds almost 12 000 homes in sustainable energy / clean energy .



Link
It has been a very busy night for firefighters in Kentucky: floods or fire, as you like!

'Like a hurricane': Floods swamp Louisville, prompt rescues
Associated Press, By CLAIRE GALOFARO and BRUCE SCHREINER 1 hour ago

Massive fire erupts at Louisville GE building as city is beset by floods
The Guardian, Agencies in Louisville, Kentucky, Friday 3 April 2015 15.41 BST

BTW, Louisville is one of the sister cities of my German city Mainz :-)
My severe weather blog is always open.
I uploaded a new avi a while back for easter in case no one noticed :)
all the way to the DC area tomorrow..........................................
san francisco area 7-day............................................. ...............................
Quoting 345. washingtonian115:

I uploaded a new avi a while back for easter in case no one noticed :)



Didn't notice that. Also, you got a 5% chance of tornadoes this evening.

Quoting 348. TimTheWxMan:




Didn't notice that. Also, you got a 5% chance of tornadoes this evening.


It is so humid outside.The temperatures are okay but its the humidity levels that are unbearable
Quoting 349. washingtonian115:

It is so humid outside.The temperatures are okay but its the humidity levels that are unbearable


Ah. There's also a dewpoint of 52 so you'll see some storms this evening.
Looks like Maysak is making a little bit of a comeback.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
last really very intense storm i can remember in the s leewards was Ivan. i remember seeing photos of trees stripped of their leaves houses in shambles. good luck this yr leewarders
.
Quoting 302. pottery:

Well, that surely depends on what ''economically viable'' means.
If I can drive my truck to the beach (30 minutes), with a pitchfork, and load a couple hundred pounds for free, it's pretty viable.
Exactly Pottery - I was thinking that while it might not be practical to send a floating harvester ship out to collect,process and deliver it to a port, once it's washes ashore, the cost of utilizing it is much lower.
  • Quoting 157. sar2401:

I imagine people with the means to so will do just what I did in 2005 - leave. It's going to be tough for people with jobs tied to California but many of the businesses will leave as well, so some of the jobs will go with them. Now, if El Nino really does blossom and California gets anywhere near a normal rainfall, it will all be a moot point, as the can will get kicked down the road. California is also populated by a lot of smart people, so desalination and better and smarter water use will take up a lot of the slack even if the rains don't come back in the near future. A bigger issue for California when it comes to drought is power. You can do a lot with water conservation but that's not going to send water into the penstocks. Hydro provides about 13% of California's power, and about 25% of the peak load power. As soon as the water level drops below the intakes at the reservoirs, no more power. It's even a worse situation at run of the river plants. On top of the water and power issues, there's a debt load that will eventually bankrupt the state and big earthquakes that are coming - we just don't know exactly when. All these factors, in addition to what I thought was a real estate crash just around the corner, convinced me to leave after almost 40 years. It was nice while it lasted.
Hi...I just wanted to put some context around the drought and power generation in California.  I am, by the way, the senior PIO at the California Independent System Operator; our nonprofit public benefit corporation operates the open access grid in California (80% of the state, but not Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Sacramento Municipal Utility District) and the real-time competitive market in six western states, including California.  Now to the topic at hand, the drought is a big concern, but at least for this summer peak season, our planning analysis shows that the lack of water to produce hydro-electricity will not have a material impact on grid reliability.  The numbers:  1,466 megawatts less hydro-electricity available for 1-in-2 year weather conditions to 2,742 megawatts for 1-in-10 extreme weather scenarios (in 2014 summer peak, we forecasted 1,370 megawatts less under normal weather conditions to 1,669 megawatts under the 1-in-10 weather conditions)
Hi...I just wanted to put some context
around the drought and power generation in California.  I am, by the way,
the senior PIO at the California Independent System Operator; our nonprofit
public benefit corporation operates the open access grid in California (80% of
the state, but not Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Sacramento
Municipal Utility District) and the real-time competitive market in six western
states, including California.  Now to the topic at hand, the drought is a
big concern, but at least for this summer peak season, our planning analysis
shows that the lack of water to produce hydro-electricity will not have a
material impact on grid reliability.  The numbers:  1,466 megawatts
less hydro-electricity available for 1-in-2 year weather conditions to 2,742
megawatts for 1-in-10 extreme weather scenarios (in 2014 summer peak, we
forecasted 1,370 megawatts less under normal weather conditions to 1,669
megawatts under the 1-in-10 weather
conditions).
True that hydro provides about 13% of our power generation, but the gap in
production caused by the drought over the past two years has been offset by
adding renewable resources, mainly solar, to the grid.  For instance,
since April of last year to now, about 2,000 megawatts of solar resources have
interconnected to the grid, which is helping to offset the lack of hydro
power.  Also, we have been using more natural gas units as well. 
Meanwhile, several natural gas plants in the state use water for cooling (called
once-through-cooling) the giant jet engine-like turbines but our review of
those plants show they have made arrangements and likely will not be affected
by low water availability. Note: California has nearly 16,000 megawatts of
renewable resources, including wind, solar, small hydro, geothermal, biomass
and biogas. See more at our website: 
http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx (the ISO set an all-time solar
generation instantaneous peak of 5,935 megawatts on Friday 4/3 at 12:32 p.m.).



So the bottom line is that for summer 2015, the drought will not have a
material impact on generation supply in the California ISO service territory
(which has a peak record of 50,270 megawatts set on July 24, 2006 -- remember
that hot summer?).



So, as a long time reader of the Wxug blogs, I just wanted to say how much I
enjoy my daily scroll through the posts.  Hope this adds a bit to the
conversation.

steven greenlee