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Severe Storms Looming for Early April

By: Bob Henson 6:59 PM GMT on March 31, 2015

The first ten days of April could produce more severe weather than the modest amount racked up so far across the U.S. in 2015. The same upper-level pattern that kept the West warm and the East cold through most of the winter has also kept severe weather to a minimum, as northwest flow and a series of cold fronts pushed warm, unstable air off the U.S. mainland. This year through March 30, we’ve seen a preliminary total of a mere 38 tornadoes, compared to a January-March average over the preceding three years of 163. As of Tuesday morning, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center had issued just four tornado watches and four severe thunderstorm watches for the year thus far. This compares to a long-term Jan.-Mar. average (1970 – 2014) of around 39 tornado and 24 severe thunderstorm watches, according to SPC’s Greg Carbin.


Figure 1. Severe-weather outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center on Tuesday morning, March 31, valid for Tuesday (top), Wednesday (center), and Thursday (bottom). Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


The 2015 numbers look destined to rise over the next few days, as a major circulation change takes place over North America. The long-prevailing northwest flow is being replaced this week by more zonal (west-to-east) flow, with an embedded upper-level impulse reaching the Midwest on Wednesday and another targeting the Southern Plains on Thursday. A moist low-level air mass is already in place, with dew points close to 60°F from Tulsa, OK, to Birmingham, AL. Surface low pressure generated by the upper-level impulses should continue to pull the moisture pool northward and generate unstable conditions. SPC placed a broad belt from Oklahoma to Georgia under a slight risk of severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with large hail possible as the moisture continue to flow north.

A large swath of the Great Plains is under an slight risk for Wednesday, from northwest Oklahoma to southern Minnesota, with an slight risk in place for Thursday across part of the Southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. The predominantly west-to-east upper flow combined with southerly low-level flow will enhance vertical wind shear, a key ingredient in the formation of supercell thunderstorms. The main threats appear to be high winds and large hail, although tornadoes can’t be ruled out. As was the case last Wednesday, when F2 tornadoes struck the Tulsa suburb of Sand Springs and the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore, the corridor from Interstate 44 into east central Oklahoma could be a particular focal point for supercell formation by late Thursday. Severe weather may continue into the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday before the associated cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast models indicate a strong upper-level trough will settle across the Great Basin by early next week, setting the stage for what could be a more extensive multiday round of severe weather beginning as soon as Sunday. A strong surface low should develop over the High Plains by late in the weekend, pulling unstable air back northward across a large area beneath west-southwest upper flow. Strong thunderstorms could spread across the Midwest and South by early next week, with several days of focused severe weather possible.

Is El Niño about to make its presence known?
Surface waters have warmed dramatically over the far eastern tropical Pacific over the last several weeks, and the water temperatures are now assuming a more classic El Niño configuration that’s been absent for the last few months, with prominent warming just off the coast of South America. Computer models are remarkably consistent on projecting a strengthening of El Niño conditions over the next few months. All eight international models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on March 16 indicated that at least moderate El Niño conditions should be in place by August (i.e., sea-surface temperatures at least 1.0°C above average over the Niño3.4 region). However, in a March 31 update, the BOM cautions: “Model outlooks spanning February to May . . . have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year. Some models currently show some spread in their outlooks for tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, indicating that while further warming is indeed very likely, there remains some ambiguity about the amount of warming expected.”

One hallmark of El Niño across the U.S. is split flow, with the polar jet stream retreating to the north and the subtropical jet stream intensifying across the southern tier of states. This pattern tends to keep unstable air shunted toward the Gulf Coast, hiking the chance of severe weather there (especially in Florida) but reducing the odds over the nation’s heartland.

Long-range models for mid-April are suggesting an El Niño-flavored pattern may emerge, with prominent split flow (see Figure 2, below). This is partly related to an intense Madden-Julian Oscillation event, the strongest on record (see our March 18 post), whose impacts are now reaching the eastern tropical Pacific and reinforcing the trend toward El Niño conditions. On its heels, a strong downwelling (or warming-phase) oceanic Kelvin wave will be pushing slowly eastward within the eastern equatorial Pacific over the next month, according to WSI’s Michael Ventrice. “This should favor increased organized thunderstorm activity over the eastern tropical Pacific basin, which will act to accelerate the subtropical jet stream over the U.S. through the end of spring,” says Ventrice. “This spells heavy precipitation threats (including some severe weather) across the southeastern tier of the nation over the upcoming months under the developing split-flow type pattern.”

Unfortunately, next week’s strong western trough may bypass California, further reducing hope of an “Awesome April” that might take a dent out of the severe drought and heat now plaguing the state. If a strong El Niño were to develop and persist, it could increase the likelihood of substantial rain in California during the 2015-16 wet season.



Figure 2. The GFS ensemble forecast issued at 1200 GMT on Monday, 30 March, and valid at 0000 GMT on Monday, 13 April, shows a pronounced split-flow pattern at the 200-millibar height (roughly 40,000 feet), with much of the United States lying between the polar and subtropical jet streams. Image credit: Michael Ventrice, WSI.


New insight on how El Niño, La Niña shape severe weather risk
A paper published this month in Nature Geoscience elaborates on how the odds of U.S. severe weather in late winter and spring tend to be boosted by La Niña and diminished by El Niño. The authors, led by John Allen (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, or IRI), acknowledge that it’s difficult to examine the connection between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and severe weather. The datasets are imperfect (not all tornadoes or severe hailstorms get reported), and there’s a great deal of variability from year to year. “Trying to tease out an ENSO signal from both the natural noise and the human noise becomes quite complicated,” said coauthor Michael Tippett (Columbia University) in an IRI news release. “You can’t get a robust correlation using the observational record alone.” In this new study, the state of ENSO from 1979 to 2012 is compared not only with actual severe reports but also with the environmental factors associated with severe weather, such as instability and vertical wind shear, thus enabling the results to be analyzed more comprehensively. The study is the first to examine ENSO’s relationship to severe hail.


Figure 3. When ENSO is in a warm, or El Niño, phase (top), the frequency of springtime tornadoes goes down. When it is in a cool, or La Niña phase (bottom), tornadoes increase (indicated by red areas). The effect is strongest in the boxed area. Image credit: IRI, from Allen et al., Nature Geoscience, 2015.


In line with previous work by others, the largest influence found by the IRI team in winter (December-February) is across southern Texas and Florida, where the risk of tornadoes is roughly doubled during El Niño events. Prior studies had been inconclusive for springtime, but the IRI group found a significant ENSO influence focused across parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas (see Figure 3), where the risk of tornadoes and severe hail rises dramatically during La Niña and drops during El Niño. There’s some asymmetry in this response: while not every El Niño event puts a dent in the region’s severe weather, La Niña events almost always push the likehood of tornadoes or severe hail above the climatological norm. “Naturally, this is only a simple model for the influence of ENSO on hail/tornadoes, and there needs to be more complexity added moving forward,” Allen told me in an email. He and colleagues are now looking into how variations in the strength of ENSO across a severe weather season might influence the outcome.

Given the weak El Niño event now under way, the IRI team is calling for slightly enhanced odds of a less-active severe season than usual. Allen explains the forecast in a video clip on IRI’s website.

Maysak maintains Category 5 strength
Jeff Masters posted a full report earlier today on Super Typhoon Maysak, now plowing across the Northwest Pacific east of the Caroline Islands. As of 8 am EDT Tuesday, Maysak’s top sustained winds were at 160 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This makes the system one of only three Category 5 typhoons ever observed in the Northwest Pacific prior to April (the other two are Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, both with 160-mph winds). The JTWC predicts some further strengthening of Maysak, with a projected top wind speed of close to 180 mph by Tuesday night. Any eyewall replacement cycle, if one occurs, could keep Maysak from getting stronger. Fortunately, Maysak is tracking north of Yap, the most populated of Micronesia’s Caroline Islands, and cooler water temperatures should lead to a fair amount of weakening by the time Maysak approaches the Philippines this weekend. At least 5 deaths and extensive damage have been reported on Chuuk State (Micronesia). The storm also passed just north of the sparsely populated islands of Fais and Ulithi while close to its top strength.

According to intensity estimates from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, 2015 is the first year on record to have three Category 5 storms form in the Pacific Ocean during the first three months of the year. The other two Category 5 storms in 2015 were Tropical Cyclone Pam (165 mph winds), which devastated Vanuatu in mid-March, and Tropical Cyclone Eunice (160 mph winds), which affected ocean areas in the South Indian Ocean. Reliable satellite records of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones extend back to the early 1990s, so we only have about a 25-year period of good records for global tropical cyclones.

We’ll have a new post by Wednesday morning.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. An infrared image of Super Typhoon Maysak from 0444 GMT on Tuesday, March 31. Image credit: NOAA/NASA and RAMBB/CIRA, courtesy Stu Ostro (The Weather Channel).

Severe Weather El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Typhoon Maysak (905 hPa) located at 10.3N 138.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 11.4N 135.0E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.0N 132.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 14.0N 129.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Thanks Doc, Storms just now firing up. Link
The latest on Maysak from NWS Guam


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311846
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 AM CHST WED APR 1 2015

...EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK NEARING YAP...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ON FAIS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE. THE EYE
OF MAYSAK BRIEFLY PASSED OVER ULITHI AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAYSAK IS
MOVING AWAY AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE WINDING DOWN. HOWEVER...
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 138.7E

ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 465 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.7
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE EYE OF
MAYSAK ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH OF YAP TODAY AROUND SUNRISE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 160 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

MCELROY
dang there mr henson....that was quite a mouthful you fed us.....great reading...thank you
I was just referring to this set up on the last blog. Thanks Bob as this is exactly what I was saying.

Long-range models for mid-April are suggesting an El Niño-flavored pattern may emerge, with prominent split flow (see Figure 2, below). This is partly related to an intense Madden-Julian Oscillation event, the strongest on record (see our March 18 post), whose impacts are now reaching the eastern tropical Pacific and reinforcing the trend toward El Niño conditions. On its heels, a strong downwelling (or warming-phase) oceanic Kelvin wave will be pushing slowly eastward within the eastern equatorial Pacific over the next month, according to WSI’s Michael Ventrice. “This should favor increased organized thunderstorm activity over the eastern tropical Pacific basin, which will act to accelerate the subtropical jet stream over the U.S. through the end of spring,” says Ventrice. “This spells heavy precipitation threats (including some severe weather) across the southeastern tier of the nation over the upcoming months under the developing split-flow type pattern.”
If the GFS verifies FL is in for a very wet atleast 30 days starting later next week.

Here is what I posted on the other blog.

Euro is also known to have a western bias across the US with its troughs. Again well see but very interesting as the GFS has a very strong southern jet setting up. Maybe the strongest this year.

Here it is at 240hrs carving itself out.


At 288hrs the jet is set and stays in place thru the end of the run. Moving system after system along that jet keeping Southern Texas to FL wet.
12Z Euro trending with the rest of the pack.

12Z GFS Ensemble Means really target the SE US with stormy conditions. Most of this is from later next week on.

Thanks for the new Post Bob......
Columbus AFB, MS (KGWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Quoting 56. stoormfury:

looking at the current SST near the Peruvian coast appears to be cooling.
From previous blog.

The left overs from PAM moved south and then east and turned into quite a large extratropical storm that brought 20 foot swells to the coast last week. All of central America southward were affected by these swells. They are still receiving swell from the leftovers from Pam as far north as northern Cal right now...
This coupled with offshore flow in Peru has created some upwelling and hence the colder water.
Link

FORMER CYCLONE PAM GOES ET TO BECOME #PBOTW Purple blob of the week...


Link
Swell highlights.
Quoting WeatherBAC:
Thanks Doc, Storms just now firing up. Link



dr m did not do the blog Bob Henson did so if you are going too thank some one thank Bob Henson not dr m has he did not do this blog update
Little Rock, AR (KLZK) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Thank You Dr. Henson for the update and the upcoming risk assesment for April.

Do you happen to know of any upcoming issues for Alaska in April?
04W/STY/M/C5
TXPQ26 KNES 311511
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 31/1432Z

C. 10.3N

D. 139.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT OF
7.0 AFTER +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 7.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
WOW. Look at the size of the eye on Maysak..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 50 MILES NORTH OF WAYCROSS
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
figure 4 in blog looks like the evil eye staring back at me
thunderstorm season can be brutal here in e cen fl. its a whole another animal. usually mid may june is when it begins but you never know. no guarantee.
Quoting 18. Dakster:

Thank You Dr. Henson for the update and the upcoming risk assesment for April.

Do you happen to know of any upcoming issues for Alaska in April?

well its going to stay cool then as we get near the end of april it gets hot then smokey and the ground becomes more and more mushy
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:

If the GFS verifies FL is in for a very wet atleast 30 days starting later next week.




As Dr. Masters pointed out, due to the usual development time of El Nino , usually the impacts to Florida and the rest of the deep south occur early in the year, but with a late arrival of El Nino I sure hope we won't be seeing strong gulf lows and deep jet stream dips later in April and May. Warm water temps, and warmer more humid air would be a dangerous mix. Normally dynamics for severe weather are long gone from Florida by April and May and move up into Oklahoma and the rest of the southern plains through Mississippi and Alabama.

At the same time, a late arrival of El Nino may mean it's too late for severe weather impacts, which hopefully is the case.

I do hope this will translate into wetter patterns though at least for April and May, just hopefully not an increase in tornadoes, it's been much drier than average the past weeks across basically all of Florida.
Quoting 27. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well its going to stay cool then as we get near the end of april it gets hot then smokey and the ground becomes more and more mushy


Gee.... Thanks...

You forgot about the gigantic mosquitos... Last year sitting outside you start to hear the woop woop woop sound and I thought it was a Chinook landing nearby... Turned out to be a few mosquitos...
Quoting 19. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
04W/STY/M/C5


Mesmerizing. One of the prettiest-looking cyclones I've seen.
Quoting 29. Dakster:



Gee.... Thanks...

You forgot about the gigantic mosquitos... Last year sitting outside you start to hear the woop woop woop sound and I thought it was a Chinook landing nearby... Turned out to be a few mosquitos...
yer good once the sun shines they disappear but as soon as that sun goes down they attack time to go in then till sunrise anyway
Quoting 30. TimSoCal:



Mesmerizing. One of the prettiest-looking cyclones I've seen.
that basin is gonna kick out a few I think so will epac as we get closer to june
Thanks dok henson!

Got a slight risk for severe weather thursday\thursday night. Can't wait! Last time was not that good.
Quoting 28. Jedkins01:



As Dr. Masters pointed out, due to the usual development time of El Nino , usually the impacts to Florida and the rest of the deep south occur early in the year, but with a late arrival of El Nino I sure hope we won't be seeing strong gulf lows and deep jet stream dips later in April and May. Warm water temps, and warmer more humid air would be a dangerous mix. Normally dynamics for severe weather are long gone from Florida by April and May and move up into Oklahoma and the rest of the southern plains through Mississippi and Alabama.

At the same time, a late arrival of El Nino may mean it's too late for severe weather impacts, which hopefully is the case.

I do hope this will translate into wetter patterns though at least for April and May, just hopefully not an increase in tornadoes, it's been much drier than average the past weeks across basically all of Florida.


The GFS and Canadian are showing a pronounced Southern Jet which is showing a major pattern change across FL from a dry pattern to a much wetter pattern. I've been saying for sometime now that April would be wet due to the developing ENSO situation as the stronger it gets the more influence its going to have on the southern branch. Although I really don't see any major severe weather events for FL just much need rains (hopefully) as we got skunked last week with not much rain compared to what was being predicted by some of the models. I hope and I mean really hope we get some good rains soon as it is getting dry fast around here.
I cant believe its april 1st tomorrow the month of march flew by fast
Here is a graphical nowcast issued by NWS PAH.



Tampa Bay area
The skeeters are slow and dumb up here compared to the vicious Miami ones.

Now the BITING flies are another story. And they take a chunk out of you when they bite. They also will follow you for miles and miles. So if you are out hiking you get annihilated by them.
Super typhoon Maysak, has been moving due west paralleling the 10 degree latitude line. This has brought the system closer to Yap then earlier expected. That's why experts always say, "Never focus on the straight line." These systems always wobble or behave in there own type of way. And sometimes when there of this intensity, they usually like to make their own environment. I think Yap is in more or less in the heavy rain shield surrounding the eyewall. There probably getting some really nasty weather.





Quoting 38. Dakster:

The skeeters are slow and dumb up here compared to the vicious Miami ones.

Now the BITING flies are another story. And they take a chunk out of you when they bite. They also will follow you for miles and miles. So if you are out hiking you get annihilated by them.
horse flies wear baggy clothes covering all areas except hands and head and mke sure cuffs on the shirt are snug around wrists and neck to prevent them from getting under your clothes don't wear cologne that drives them crazies like fools
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

horse flies wear baggy clothes covering all areas except hands and head and mke sure cuffs on the shirt are snug around wrists and neck to prevent them from getting under your clothes don't wear cologne that drives them crazies like fools


They are not horse flies... And I have dealt with those. One poor guy had one fly underneath his clothing. By the time he figured it out he was bit from head to toe. These are worse than horse flies.

Only cologne I wear outside hiking is DEET.
Quoting 42. Dakster:



They are not horse flies... And I have dealt with those. One poor guy had one fly underneath his clothing. By the time he figured it out he was bit from head to toe. These are worse than horse flies.

Only cologne I wear outside hiking is DEET.
sounds like horse flies I have to check now to find out
Stop. Let's enjoy a little more of this beauty. Meso Vortices in the eye. Beautiful Super Typhoon Maysak (Future Chedeng):
maybe black flies this one is a biter

Quoting 882MB:
Super typhoon Maysak, has been moving due west paralleling the 10 degree latitude line. This has brought the system closer to Yap then earlier expected. That's why experts always say, "Never focus on the straight line." These systems always wobble or behave in there own type of way. And sometimes when there of this intensity, they usually like to make their own environment. I think Yap is in more or less in the heavy rain shield surrounding the eyewall. There probably getting some really nasty weather.



well depending on the topography of the island Id say its a couple of levels above nasty, and a 100 miles away from DOOM.
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe black flies this one is a biter




people here call them black flies... So that may be them. Luckily at the house all I get are house flies.
Quoting 40. 882MB:

Super typhoon Maysak, has been moving due west paralleling the 10 degree latitude line. This has brought the system closer to Yap then earlier expected. That's why experts always say, "Never focus on the straight line." These systems always wobble or behave in there own type of way. And sometimes when there of this intensity, they usually like to make their own environment. I think Yap is in more or less in the heavy rain shield surrounding the eyewall. There probably getting some really nasty weather.

Sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 48 mph via the latest observation update.

Link
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe black flies this one is a biter




http://entnemdept.ufl.edu/creatures/livestock/dee r_fly.htm
I found the term I was looking for. WHITE SOX FLY....



Black Fly, White Sox (Simuliidae)
Black flies feed off of mammal blood and nectar for nourishment. In foreign countries, black flies can be dangerous transports of infectious diseases. However, there are no known diseases transmitted through humans within the United States. These bugs have nasty bites that can itch and swell for weeks! The biting season starts in May and lasts until things start freezing up in October. Their activity is relatively localized, mostly around the streams from which the adults emerge. The most effective control program for these pests are run by the state. Physically altering their habitats and conducting aerial insecticide sprays will alleviate most black fly populations. These are crawlers, and will crawl under clothing to bite the skin. Personal preventative measures include: tucking your pants into your socks, wearing a light hooded parka with tight wrists, and a drawstring hood will greatly reduce biting.


Beautiful day here today. I'm surprised the beach isn't packed.
Thanks Bob. Predictions being predictions, I would rather be smack in the middle of the predicted severe zone than where I am on the very edge of the not so severe zone. We'll see what happens...
55. vis0
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

I was just referring to this set up on the last blog. Thanks Bob as this is exactly what I was saying.

Long-range models for mid-April are suggesting an El Niño-flavored pattern may emerge, with prominent split flow (see Figure 2, below). This is partly related to an intense Madden-Julian Oscillation event, the strongest on record (see our March 18 post), whose impacts are now reaching the eastern tropical Pacific and reinforcing the trend toward El Niño conditions. On its heels, a strong downwelling (or warming-phase) oceanic Kelvin wave will be pushing slowly eastward within the eastern equatorial Pacific over the next month, according to WSI’s Michael Ventrice. “This should favor increased organized thunderstorm activity over the eastern tropical Pacific basin, which will act to accelerate the subtropical jet stream over the U.S. through the end of spring,” says Ventrice. “This spells heavy precipitation threats (including some severe weather) across the southeastern tier of the nation over the upcoming months under the developing split-flow type pattern.”
my 22 cents via a science that is not yet discovered so get that 2Lb pkg of Morton's Kosher salt *(iodized) and heave it over your shoulder as you read my opinion. ::

 
Though for those in the MIDWEST do NOT let your guard down as when there is a chance for severe weather, keep in the back of your thoughts a storm could develop ~ 2 times faster, more of, stronger or quicker turning than expected as natures stronger Jet Stream gets a 66% boost as much of the Midwest & FL. are in the 66% boost of ml-d AOIs. see the "C" & "O" outlines in this graphic of the ml-d AOIs. Do NOT think of these lines as stationary as they expand & contract by a third of each AOIs "width".
Quoting 29. Dakster:



Gee.... Thanks...

You forgot about the gigantic mosquitos... Last year sitting outside you start to hear the woop woop woop sound and I thought it was a Chinook landing nearby... Turned out to be a few mosquitos...


Yeah but you can get six drumsticks off each one.

Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe black flies this one is a biter




This looks like a deer fly and we have them in the Mid Atlantic at annoyance rather than utterly miserable levels.
We also have horse flies which are about 2cm long and will bite through a significant shirt or trousers and take
a chunk out of you. I suspect the New England Black Flies are much much worse but I've never experienced them.
Quoting 39. tampabaymatt:



I see the Tennessee storm shields are holding up pretty well :\
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I cant believe its april 1st tomorrow the month of march flew by fast


April 1st in DC and no tree flowers yet, no plums, cherries, peaches, apricots, quinces or bradford pears. Plums
are close but they normally bloom in early to mid March. I started seeing daffodils about a week ago on south walls and they are starting to bloom in less protected areas today 3/31. Normally this happens about 3/10.

Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:



This looks like a deer fly and we have them in the Mid Atlantic at annoyance rather than utterly miserable levels.
We also have horse flies which are about 2cm long and will bite through a significant shirt or trousers and take
a chunk out of you. I suspect the New England Black Flies are much much worse but I've never experienced them.

what ever they are they will be here soon another month everything will be in full bloom south of 60 n
another 30 days north of 60 n after that
Severe thunderstorm warnings in place in many parts of Central Alabama.

Quoting 60. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what ever they are they will be here soon another month everything will be in full bloom south of 60 n
another 30 days north of 60 n after that
 I live south of 60 and everything will certainly not be in full bloom in fact many times there is still ice on the lakes. 
Quoting 61. tampabaymatt:

Severe thunderstorm warnings in place in many parts of Central Alabama.


Would that include sar's area?
He needs some rain
Quoting 63. txjac:



Would that include sar's area?
He needs some rain


It appears to, yes. His area is under a watch.

Time to say good morning to Maysak.



Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:



This looks like a deer fly and we have them in the Mid Atlantic at annoyance rather than utterly miserable levels.
We also have horse flies which are about 2cm long and will bite through a significant shirt or trousers and take
a chunk out of you. I suspect the New England Black Flies are much much worse but I've never experienced them.




A little information on the Ontar-i-o Black Flies.
04W/STY/M/C5
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe black flies this one is a biter




That looks like a deer fly. The black flies are much smaller and are akin to the central florida no-see-ums only a little bigger and more vicious. Also called May flies. Maybe the lingo is different from region to region, but I would call that picture a deer fly and a May fly a black fly.
Quoting txjac:


Would that include sar's area?
He needs some rain



not has bad has CA dos we really need the rain
How do you pronounce the Typhoon's name?
Quoting 69. Tazmanian:




not has bad has CA dos we really need the rain


CA is part of the Desert West Coast now...

At least until it isn't...

Hope you get your rain.
Quoting 70. washingtonian115:

How do you pronounce the Typhoon's name?
MAY-SAK
View of SuperTyphoon MEYSAK as sun comes up just north of YAP. Impressive stadium effect.

Quoting 70. washingtonian115:

How do you pronounce the Typhoon's name?


MAY SACK? MAYS ACK?

Quoting 74. Dakster:



MAY SACK? MAYS ACK?




I think MAY SACK. Not sure though.
Similar to the NWS Watch area.

Just posted by Reed Timmer on his twitter.

Quoting Dakster:


CA is part of the Desert West Coast now...

At least until it isn't...

Hope you get your rain.


Desert West thats not funny
What did Maysak say to Yap?..........

May ya please stop Yapping over there (Okay my jokes are bad)
I wanted to share with you all, Pam's lifecycle. These loops are from invest to dissipation.


View on YouTube


View on YouTube
Quoting 77. Tazmanian:



Desert West thats not funny
not funny but its gonna be the truth cali is going to run out of water its likely a sure thing now just a mere matter of time unless the rains come and then it may very well wash cali away so either way its not the best outlook
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

What did Maysak say to Yap?..........

May ya please stop Yapping over there (Okay my jokes are bad)


Stand up comic for a living?

Mine are not much better....

Sorry Taz... just calling it like I see it.
Quoting 70. washingtonian115:

How do you pronounce the Typhoon's name?


"My Sok"

Link
The high temperature in Death Valley was below 90 degrees only seven days this month. That has to be a record!
Quoting 63. txjac:



Would that include sar's area?
He needs some rain

He might get some rain later this evening but right now it looks like the rain and storms will pass to the north.
Probably prompted a complaint from him about it later tonight, LOL.
Quoting Hazardousweather:
The high temperature in Death Valley was below 90 degrees only seven days this month. That has to be a record!


For Vegas.
Record Report
Statement as of 1:27 PM PDT on March 31, 2015


... Record high minimum temperatures tied or set at Las Vegas the
last few days...

The warm weather the last few days has also resulted in Las Vegas
tying or setting record high minimum temperatures - or the warmest
low temperature ever - for the date.

On March 28th the low temperature only fell to 62 degrees. This
broke the previous daily record high minimum temperature of 60 set
in 2013.

On March 29th the low temperature was 62 degrees. This broke th
previous record high minimum temperature record of 60 set in 1986.

Yesterday - March 30th - the low temperature was 63 which tied
the previous daily record set in 2010.

And finally the low temperature so far today for March 31st has been
65 degrees. This breaks the previous daily record of 61 set in 2011.

Official weather records for Las Vegas are taken at McCarran
International Airport and date to 1937.

The above information is preliminary and is subject to a final
review before being certified by the National climatic data center.


Storms are firing off in the Texas Panhandle moving into western Oklahoma.
Quoting 82. HadesGodWyvern:



"My Sok"

Link
Thank you!
This just might be one of the most impressive photos ever taken of a tropical cyclone:

Quoting 85. Sfloridacat5:



For Vegas.
Record Report
Statement as of 1:27 PM PDT on March 31, 2015


... Record high minimum temperatures tied or set at Las Vegas the
last few days...

The warm weather the last few days has also resulted in Las Vegas
tying or setting record high minimum temperatures - or the warmest
low temperature ever - for the date.

On March 28th the low temperature only fell to 62 degrees. This
broke the previous daily record high minimum temperature of 60 set
in 2013.

On March 29th the low temperature was 62 degrees. This broke th
previous record high minimum temperature record of 60 set in 1986.

Yesterday - March 30th - the low temperature was 63 which tied
the previous daily record set in 2010.

And finally the low temperature so far today for March 31st has been
65 degrees. This breaks the previous daily record of 61 set in 2011.

Official weather records for Las Vegas are taken at McCarran
International Airport and date to 1937.

The above information is preliminary and is subject to a final
review before being certified by the National climatic data center.





After today, March 2015 has eclipsed March of 2004 for the warmest March on record in Las Vegas.
Bob Henson...do you forget the Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice?

Maysak is the 4th category 5 tropical cyclone of the year.

Quoting 93. pablosyn:

Bob Henson...do you forget the Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice?

Maysak is the 4th category 5 tropical cyclone of the year.




i'm sorry i posted 2 times hahahaa
Where is Baha when i need him? Going to the Bahama's in September..I'm really sick to my stomach because what if a hurricane is in the vicinity? What if it's over cat 2 intensity? and we'll be on a island.Nervousness isn't even the word because I've never dealt with 115+mph winds!.I'm just hoping for sunshine and blue skies the whole time! Don't want my family to be put in danger nature that's all I'm asking for.
Quoting Dakster:


Stand up comic for a living?

Mine are not much better....

Sorry Taz... just calling it like I see it.



your right so ture
Quoting pablosyn:
Bob Henson...do you forget the Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice?

Maysak is the 4th category 5 tropical cyclone of the year.




Eunice was a S PAC storm not a W PAC storm so it dos not count for W PAC storms so has for right now we have are 3rd and not 4th W PAC storm
Quoting 98. Tazmanian:




Eunice was a S PAC storm not a W PAC storm so it dos not count for W PAC storms so has for right now we have are 3rd and not 4th W PAC storm



Taz, Bansi (the first cat 5 of 2015) formed in the southwest Indian ocean. Dr. Henson stated third worldwide (forgetting about Eunice), not in the western pacific, and in the pacific there's only been two category 5s (Pam in the south and Maysak in the north). Please quit while you're ahead.
And a high-resolution infrared shot from 1538z (1138am EDT):

Quoting Tazmanian:



Eunice was a S PAC storm not a W PAC storm so it dos not count for W PAC storms so has for right now we have are 3rd and not 4th W PAC storm


So were Pam and Bansi. Maysak is indeed the 4th Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) to develop in 2015.
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

Where is Baha when i need him? Going to the Bahama's in September..I'm really sick to my stomach because what if a hurricane is in the vicinity? What if it's over cat 2 intensity? and we'll be on a island.Nervousness isn't even the word because I've never dealt with 115+mph winds!.I'm just hoping for sunshine and blue skies the whole time! Don't want my family to be put in danger nature that's all I'm asking for.
she will be around I am sure
Quoting Stormlover16:


Taz, Bansi (the first cat 5 of 2015) formed in the southwest Indian ocean. Dr. Henson stated third worldwide, not in the western pacific, and in the pacific there's only been two category 5s. Please quit while you're ahead.
Quoting Tazmanian:



Eunice was a S PAC storm not a W PAC storm so it dos not count for W PAC storms so has for right now we have are 3rd and not 4th W PAC storm



ok was not sure
106. beell
"While not every April Fools' Day prank turns out to be "fun," Google has quietly enabled a secret feature in Google Maps that lets you play the classic Atari game Pac-Man in your city's streets..."
businessinsider.com

Quoting 105. Tazmanian:




ok was not sure


"According to intensity estimates from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, 2015 is the first year on record to have three Category 5 storms form during the first three months of the year." Maysak reach category 5 in March 31st. The fourth category 5 storm during the FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR.

One.


Two.


Three.


Four.


:)
108. bwi
Even though Yap Is. got the less bad side of the storm, and may have been a few miles removed from the highest eye-wall winds, I would be they still got a walloping. That's an impressive Cat 5 storm -- wouldn't be surprised if the island saw 100mph gusts for quite a few hours, enough to ruin vegetation and blow down flimsy tropical homes. Help will be needed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This just might be one of the most impressive photos ever taken of a tropical cyclone:



Don't fall off!
Quoting 108. bwi:

Even though Yap Is. got the less bad side of the storm, and may have been a few miles removed from the highest eye-wall winds, I would be they still got a walloping. That's an impressive Cat 5 storm -- wouldn't be surprised if the island saw 100mph gusts for quite a few hours, enough to ruin vegetation and blow down flimsy tropical homes. Help will be needed.

At least at the international airport, sustained winds remained below tropical storm force and gusts peaked out at 48 mph:

Link
111. bwi
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

Where is Baha when i need him? Going to the Bahama's in September..I'm really sick to my stomach because what if a hurricane is in the vicinity? What if it's over cat 2 intensity? and we'll be on a island.Nervousness isn't even the word because I've never dealt with 115+mph winds!.I'm just hoping for sunshine and blue skies the whole time! Don't want my family to be put in danger nature that's all I'm asking for.

I think the Bahamians have pretty good construction and shelters for the tourist hotels. They know their canes down that way. Of course, if a really big one comes, nobody safe...
Quoting WeatherBAC:

He might get some rain later this evening but right now it looks like the rain and storms will pass to the north.
Probably prompted a complaint from him about it later tonight, LOL.
Yes, everything is passing to the north. Temperature here is 78 with a dewpoint of 56. Sunny with a few scattered clouds is about it. There's clearly a boundary of some type that's draped across the state from Tuscaloosa through Birmingham. Right along that boundary, there are thunderstorms with reports of golf ball size hail and 60 mph winds. I'm on the wrong side of the boundary. Looking outside, it's hard to believe there are severe storms in the state.
Houses blown away after Maysak hits FSM atolls
Radio New Zealand, Updated at 11:03 am today
Whole houses have been blown away on the small atoll of Fais in the northwest Pacific's Federated States of Micronesia after the super typhoon Maysak hit overnight.
The United Services National Weather Service in Guam said neighbouring Ulithi took a direct hit with gusts of 300 kilometres an hour.
The two atolls have a combined population of 1000.
Maysak is now pounding the state of Yap with 120 kilometre per hour winds.
The command post in Yap lost contact with most of the islets in the Ulithi lagoon overnight, but did speak to Mogmog islanders while they were in the eye of the storm.
Yap's Disaster Coordination Officer, Raymond Igechep, said houses were blown away in Fais, and he hopes there was no loss of life.
"They've seen houses blown off their platforms and stuff like that, the storm went very close to them and in fact in Ulithi, they went through the eye. They reported in later during the night that they experienced calmer weather and I advised them not to venture outside because that's the eye of the storm."
Raymond Igechep says Yap is experiencing very strong winds, and is hearing tin fly around outside as dawn breaks on the island.
Winds of up to 250 kilometres per hour are forecast if the supertyphoon directly hits.
Mr Igechep says the damage on Yap is already worse than last year's typhoon Hagupit, but he hopes the supertyphoon continues to turn northerly away from Yap. ...
A disaster official in the Federated States of Micronesia state of Yap earlier said people in the path of the super typhoon Maysak had spent the night sheltering from the storm.
Raymond Igechep said people on Fais and Ulithi sought shelter in concrete buildings such as churches and schools. ...


Umm, looking into the eye of Maysak in the blog entry and in following posts really gives me chills, and I'm so far away --- what may the people in or near the eyewall have experienced!
Quoting 111. bwi:


I think the Bahamians have pretty good construction and shelters for the tourist hotels. They know their canes down that way. Of course, if a really big one comes, nobody safe...
Dealing with a cat 2 plus well that's a whole different category (no pun intended) of trouble.I wonder how people along the gulf coast states deal with looking at these beast nearing them?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Similar to the NWS Watch area.

Just posted by Reed Timmer on his twitter.

I think Timmer is in for a bit of a disappointment. The radar for western Oklahoma is down but the area hasn't shown a lot of development. What has developed has been discrete cells with large hail, and it's starting to get late in the day for supercell development. You never know in Oklahoma, since sometimes we can get late evening development, but today doesn't look like one of those days, at least not for supercells.
Quoting 90. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This just might be one of the most impressive photos ever taken of a tropical cyclone:



Sam Cristoforetti @AstroSamantha
A closer look... #Maysak

Samantha Cristoforetti is an astronaut who currently lives in the ISS. Good job of her to catch these (see post #90 as well) amazing shots of Maysak!
Quoting 102. CybrTeddy:



So were Pam and Bansi. Maysak is indeed the 4th Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) to develop in 2015.


I've added "in the Pacific Ocean" in the reference to the three Cat. 5s. As several of you have noted, Eunice would give us four Cat. 5 tropical cyclones to date for the planet as a whole. Thanks for the catch!
Quoting 114. washingtonian115:

Dealing with a cat 2 plus well that's a whole different category (no pun intended) of trouble.I wonder how people along the gulf coast states deal with looking at these beast nearing them?


The feeling of impending doom, literally. I was 11 packed into a fortified condo on a high point in Clearwater with my family that we evacuated to. Even at 11 with full on teenage naivety about severe weather, it soon turned to worry as we had a category 4 hurricane projected by all model guidance to make a direct hit on us. As much as I wanted to see a hurricane, I realized at that moment that Charley would end up being way more than I bargained for. I'd like to be in a category 1 eyewall, not a high end rapidly intensifying category 4 hurricane with a 5 mile wide eye.

My parents house is at about 4 ft elevation pretty close to the bay, it would have been doom for our home and neighborhood no doubt. Things would have been different over the years if it happened.
I sure hope we get some rain here in FL soon. It's getting rather dry out here.

Dang, Maysak looks intimidating! Glad that thing's not churning its way towards FL. Praying for all those in its path.

Hey everyone. I know it's been a while since I've commented, I've been trying to stay away from the off-season bickering.
Quoting 115. sar2401:

I think Timmer is in for a bit of a disappointment. The radar for western Oklahoma is down but the area hasn't shown a lot of development. What has developed has been discrete cells with large hail, and it's starting to get late in the day for supercell development. You never know in Oklahoma, since sometimes we can get late evening development, but today doesn't look like one of those days, at least not for supercells.


That's how severe weather forecasting in the plains can be. Many days are a fine line between the cap holding strong and breaking. The infamous cap is important in providing extreme super cell growth to break out in the southern plains. A cap allows maximum heating and a lack of competition of weaker thunderstorms. The result is dangerous buildup of instability.

That and the fact that the region is frequently visited by very cold upper systems fresh off the rockies. Very cold air aloft above a cap with strong dynamics and shear is one heck of a scary combination.
121. 882MB
We have twin invests in the Indian ocean.

An eye with an apt pupil.

Quoting barbamz:

Sam Cristoforetti @AstroSamantha
A closer look... #Maysak

Samantha Cristoforetti is an astronaut who currently lives in the ISS. Good job of her to catch these (see post #90 as well) amazing shots of Maysak!
Quoting barbamz:
Houses blown away after Maysak hits FSM atolls
Radio New Zealand, Updated at 11:03 am today
Whole houses have been blown away on the small atoll of Fais in the northwest Pacific's Federated States of Micronesia after the super typhoon Maysak hit overnight.
The United Services National Weather Service in Guam said neighbouring Ulithi took a direct hit with gusts of 300 kilometres an hour.
The two atolls have a combined population of 1000.
Maysak is now pounding the state of Yap with 120 kilometre per hour winds.
The command post in Yap lost contact with most of the islets in the Ulithi lagoon overnight, but did speak to Mogmog islanders while they were in the eye of the storm.
Yap's Disaster Coordination Officer, Raymond Igechep, said houses were blown away in Fais, and he hopes there was no loss of life.
"They've seen houses blown off their platforms and stuff like that, the storm went very close to them and in fact in Ulithi, they went through the eye. They reported in later during the night that they experienced calmer weather and I advised them not to venture outside because that's the eye of the storm."
Raymond Igechep says Yap is experiencing very strong winds, and is hearing tin fly around outside as dawn breaks on the island.
Winds of up to 250 kilometres per hour are forecast if the supertyphoon directly hits.
Mr Igechep says the damage on Yap is already worse than last year's typhoon Hagupit, but he hopes the supertyphoon continues to turn northerly away from Yap. ...


Umm, looking into the eye of Maysak in the blog entry and in following posts really gives me chills, and I'm so far away --- what may the people in or near the eyewall have experienced!
This a typical Yap traditional house under construction -



And this is the typical finished product -



They are usually built on a rubble platform made from coral. The structure may not look like it's well built to Westerners but Micronesians, who are without the means to build cyclone resistant housing, have found this works well over the last thousand years or so. When the cyclone comes, it blows down the house, but all the thatch is laid so it protects all the coconut poles and large logs from also blowing away. Thatch is the easy part to get. Coconut logs aren't easy, so they are what's protected, along with the coral foundation. Once the cyclone has moved on, everyone pitches in and rebuild the frame while others gather thatch. It usually takes about three days to construct a new house. The people know where to take shelter away from the beach when the cyclone comes so the death toll is usually low. Unfortunately, Western influence has led to the construction of more stick built but still flimsy structures that also get blown down but it's not built of native material, so people have to wait for the boat to show up with new lumber and roofing to rebuild. Bringing Western ideas to Micronesia hasn't always been such a good thing. OTOH, this is the NWS office in Colonia, Yap. It doesn't look like the best built structure either and that roof really looks sketchy.

Quoting 118. Jedkins01:



The feeling of impending doom, literally. I was 11 packed into a fortified condo on a high point in Clearwater with my family that we evacuated to. Even at 11 with full on teenage naivety about severe weather, it soon turned to worry as we had a category 4 hurricane projected by all model guidance to make a direct hit on us. As much as I wanted to see a hurricane, I realized at that moment that Charley would end up being way more than I bargained for. I'd like to be in a category 1 eyewall, not a high end rapidly intensifying category 4 hurricane with a 5 mile wide eye.

My parents house is at about 4 ft elevation pretty close to the bay, it would have been doom for our home and neighborhood no doubt. Things would have been different over the years if it happened.
I just hope I don't have to put up with that! I already don't like the feeling of watching a hurricane coming for D.C and they're usually on the low end side of intensity.
Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:

At least at the international airport, sustained winds remained below tropical storm force and gusts peaked out at 48 mph:

Link

Chuuk had a lower pressure than that.
Quoting 117. BobHenson:



I've added "in the Pacific Ocean" in the reference to the three Cat. 5s. As several of you have noted, Eunice would give us four Cat. 5 tropical cyclones to date for the planet as a whole. Thanks for the catch!


You're welcome, but Bansi was in Indian Ocean with Eunice, Pam and Maysak in Pacific.
I am seeing snow right now. This is bull honky.
That 8-10% mo Water vapor is adding fuel for mo chaos.

CO2 matters,

Greatly

What strikes me is that there is enough heat in the western Pacific Ocean to generate cat 5 tropical cyclones in BOTH hemispheres at the same time an El Nino is causing warmer than normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Maybe the ocean's name is not apt ;)
Quoting 127. wxgeek723:

I am seeing snow right now. This is bull honky.
Check your email please :)
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting Jedkins01:


That's how severe weather forecasting in the plains can be. Many days are a fine line between the cap holding strong and breaking. The infamous cap is important in providing extreme super cell growth to break out in the southern plains. A cap allows maximum heating and a lack of competition of weaker thunderstorms. The result is dangerous buildup of instability.

That and the fact that the region is frequently visited by very cold upper systems fresh off the rockies. Very cold air aloft above a cap with strong dynamics and shear is one heck of a scary combination.
And the cap has held very well today in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Where it didn't hold is north central Alabama, where we've had some of the biggest hail I've seen reported in quite a while. Gold ball size hail is not common here but there have been enough different reports of 1.75" to 2.00" hail today that I'm pretty confident this isn't one person on Facebook with an overactive imagination. Only 6 wind reports so far but 106 hail reports, most from MS and AL. There are several reports of baseball size hail in MS so these storms have really been big hail producers for us. Zero happening here, with Alabama storms having either moved in Georgia or just dissipated. Unlike the Plains, it's hard to keep thunderstorms going here after dark without some strong frontal support.
Quoting wxgeek723:
I am seeing snow right now. This is bull honky.



hey if you dont want the snow give it too me i will have it
Quoting 112. sar2401:

Yes, everything is passing to the north. Temperature here is 78 with a dewpoint of 56. Sunny with a few scattered clouds is about it. There's clearly a boundary of some type that's draped across the state from Tuscaloosa through Birmingham. Right along that boundary, there are thunderstorms with reports of golf ball size hail and 60 mph winds. I'm on the wrong side of the boundary. Looking outside, it's hard to believe there are severe storms in the state.

Same down here, hard to believe the rough weather is that close and we are having such a beautiful day. I have had my eye on a particular thunderstorm cell that formed near Fort Smith, Arkansas at 9AM today, it has been moving directly toward me all day and is now between Jackson and Meridian, Mississippi, can't believe it will make it down here, but interesting to see that it has made it this far, and survived that long.
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

Where is Baha when i need him? Going to the Bahama's in September..I'm really sick to my stomach because what if a hurricane is in the vicinity? What if it's over cat 2 intensity? and we'll be on a island.Nervousness isn't even the word because I've never dealt with 115+mph winds!.I'm just hoping for sunshine and blue skies the whole time! Don't want my family to be put in danger nature that's all I'm asking for.
Howdy Wash...Baha is a she..
Last post from me for today in respect to our German severe storm "Niklas" which certainly caused more deaths than three in Europe and moreover huge damage all over central Europe (maybe it will show up in the end of the year when our doc will provide the list of the costliest weather events of the year):

Storm Niklas kills at least three, stops trains
The Local, published: 31 Mar 2015 16:34 GMT 02:00
Hurricane "Niklas" has reportedly claimed three victims, while trains have been cancelled across Germany as the storm rages. ...
Whole report see link above.

In respect to the term "hurricane" for European windstorms ("Orkan" in German), see wiki:
Several European languages use cognates of the word huracan (ouragan, orkan, huragan, orkaan, which may or may not be differentiated from tropical hurricanes in these languages) to indicate particularly strong cyclonic winds occurring in Europe. The term hurricane as applied to these storms is not in reference to the structurally different tropical cyclone of the same name, but to the hurricane strength of the wind on the Beaufort scale (winds 118 km/h or 73 mph).
In English, use of term hurricane to refer to European windstorms is mostly discouraged, as these storms do not display the structure of tropical storms. Likewise the use of the French term ouragan is similarly discouraged as hurricane is in English, as it is typically reserved for tropical storms only. European windstorms in Latin Europe are generally referred to by derivatives of tempestas (tempest, tempete, tempestado), meaning storm, weather, or season, from the Latin, tempus meaning time. ...


Good night! It's calm now at my place near Frankfurt after all that howling all the day.
Quoting 133. Tazmanian:




hey if you dont want the snow give it too me i will have it
Send a couple of empty trains to pick it up -- I don't think Mom is going to deliver it to you.
Quoting WeatherBAC:

Same down here, hard to believe the rough weather is that close and we are having such a beautiful day. I have had my eye on a particular thunderstorm cell that formed near Fort Smith, Arkansas at 9AM today, it has been moving directly toward me all day and is now between Jackson and Meridian, Mississippi, can't believe it will make it down here, but interesting to see that it has made it this far, and survived that long.
I had been watching that little blob also. If you go to the Jackson MS radar and set it for the last 20 frames, I think you'll see why the chances of anything getting to you are slim to none. I remember when we were the ones that used to get the thunderstorms since we were closer to the Gulf. It looks like Tuscaloosa and Birmingham now have that honor.
139. yoboi
Quoting 128. Patrap:

That 8-10% mo Water vapor is adding fuel for mo chaos.

CO2 matters,

Greatly




8-10% I agree....I have been saying that for yrs...
Quoting 135. hydrus:

Howdy Wash...Baha is a she..
WOW! I thought Baha was a dude for 5 years now.How did I not find out sooner? I feel like a jerk.
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:

WOW! I thought Baha was a dude for 5 years now.How did I not find out sooner? I feel like a jerk.


Currently in the same boat. lol
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

Where is Baha when i need him? Going to the Bahama's in September..I'm really sick to my stomach because what if a hurricane is in the vicinity? What if it's over cat 2 intensity? and we'll be on a island.Nervousness isn't even the word because I've never dealt with 115+mph winds!.I'm just hoping for sunshine and blue skies the whole time! Don't want my family to be put in danger nature that's all I'm asking for.
No worries washi...this was sandy in Abaco. But heck that was October!
I would look for a shelter a little higher than this...with less glass!
Quoting 138. sar2401:

I had been watching that little blob also. If you go to the Jackson MS radar and set it for the last 20 frames, I think you'll see why the chances of anything getting to you are slim to none. I remember when we were the ones that used to get the thunderstorms since we were closer to the Gulf. It looks like Tuscaloosa and Birmingham now have that honor.


Well now the storm is moving more ESE rather then SE, but still interesting to see how long it lasts, also Are you back under a Severe Thunderstorm watch again? or is that still to your north?
Quoting 142. Abacosurf:

No worries washi...this was sandy in Abaco. But heck that was October!
I would look for a shelter a little higher than this...with less glass!

I wouldn't want to see something coming like that for my family and I.The children would be mentally scarred for life.
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* Why flowers bloom earlier in a warming climate




!!! Particulate air pollution: Exposure to ultrafine particles influences cardiac function

Citizen scientists map global forests



* Hurricane-strength winds pummel Europe, four killed

* California getting 'second-hand smog' from Asia, researchers say


*** Could the Earth be getting greener? Satellite data say yes.

Will US partisanship block a global climate accord?


*** Forget "bans" on talking about climate. These Florida Republicans are too busy protecting their coasts

Scientists in Portugal Discover the Fossils of Earth's Largest Predator (video)


Crash dummies are getting a make-over (video)

* Air Quality: A Tale of Three Cities (video)

************************************************* ***********************************************

The following article is courtesy of Xandra

Sea Level Rise is Spiking Sharply
Quoting 144. washingtonian115:

I wouldn't want to see something coming like that for my family and I.The children would be mentally scarred for life.

Nah...they would just become weather junkies too!! Look at the positives! :)
Although the presentation of Maysak remains incredible on visible satellite, the storm is beginning a weakening trend. The central dense overcast is not as intense as it was earlier, a result of the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. Steady weakening is expected over the coming days as the cyclone moves west-northwest.

Quoting WeatherBAC:


Well now the storm is moving more ESE rather then SE, but still interesting to see how long it lasts, also Are you back under a Severe Thunderstorm watch again? or is that still to your north?
Barbour County was always in the watch area. The SPC just continued the watch and took out a couple of far NW counties. Why we were left in is beyond me. We never had a chance of a thunderstorm today let alone anything severe. That blob will completely die just as it reaches Greenville, and that will be the end of severe weather day one for us.

EDIT: Just cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for all of the BMX area.
plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose

A Herblock cartoon from 1964. Click to expand.

Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

Where is Baha when i need him? Going to the Bahama's in September..I'm really sick to my stomach because what if a hurricane is in the vicinity?
Wash I love you hun, but I can't be the only one sensing a tiiiiny bit of hyperbole in that part of your post.
Quoting 116. barbamz:


Sam Cristoforetti @AstroSamantha
A closer look... #Maysak

Samantha Cristoforetti is an astronaut who currently lives in the ISS. Good job of her to catch these (see post #90 as well) amazing shots of Maysak!

It's also worth pointing out that she is the one who captured the fantastic lightning shots from Bansi in January.
152. vis0

Quoting 115. sar2401:

I think Timmer is in for a bit of a disappointment. The radar for western Oklahoma is down but the area hasn't shown a lot of development. What has developed has been discrete cells with large hail, and it's starting to get late in the day for supercell development. You never know in Oklahoma, since sometimes we can get late evening development, but today doesn't look like one of those days, at least not for supercells.
meant to +"timmer"
Quoting 117. BobHenson:



I've added "in the Pacific Ocean" in the reference to the three Cat. 5s. As several of you have noted, Eunice would give us four Cat. 5 tropical cyclones to date for the planet as a whole. Thanks for the catch!

But Bansi and Eunice were both SW Indian tropical cyclones, which would leave only Pam and Maysak for the Pacific (SPac and WPac, respectively).
Quoting 150. KoritheMan:

Wash I love you hun, but I can't be the only one sensing a tiiiiny bit of hyperbole in that part of your post.

Seeing the documentary of the tourist that rode out Wilma in Cancun as a cat 4 I wouldn't want to experience that.No way Jose.
Maysap mayhap moving mercilessly masking Micronesia
Quoting 154. washingtonian115:

Seeing the documentary of the tourist that rode out Wilma in Cancun as a cat 4 I wouldn't want to experience that.No way Jose.


I wasn't talking about experiencing it. But, "sick to my stomach" for something that may not happen five months from now is just a wee bit dramatic to me. >_>

Apprehension, maybe.
washingtonian
wishcasting weird weather was
washi-wishy. What? ;)
Quoting 157. BaltimoreBrian:

washingtonian wishcasting weird weather was washi-wishy :)

What? ;)


wat
Quoting 158. KoritheMan:



watt

kg m^2/s^3
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wasn't talking about experiencing it. But, "sick to my stomach" for something that may not happen five months from now is just a wee bit dramatic to me. >_>

Apprehension, maybe.
I rented sailboats in the Caribbean in June and September. I did do because the cost was about half of what it would have been during the high season. There were four of us including me. I just took a good hard look at what weather had been happening in the areas I was going to sail (St Lucia and St. Martin/St. Barts) for the three days before we sailed and how things looked upstream. I was willing to lose the entire rental cost if it really looked risky. I was lucky that both times went off without a hitch. If I was really worried about sailing during hurricane season I would have just paid the cost to do it during high season.
Quoting 128. Patrap:

That 8-10% mo Water vapor is adding fuel for mo chaos.

CO2 matters,

Greatly

There's something on my article list that Kori might like which I didn't include here but is on my blog.
Quoting 162. BaltimoreBrian:

There's something on my article list that Kori might like which I didn't include here but is on my blog.


Oh?
Boston: "All the sleet, all the snow...it all stops..."

Warden Norton: "Nothing stops....Nothing! You'll think you've been %@#$^ by a train!"

Click image to expand



Awww the models all changed. There was a model consensus of 8" of snow in Boston next Tuesday.
165. vis0
tried to correct a html error so my post doesn't ruin the blogs format but its not accepting the edit ....POOF goes all that work.
Quoting 162. BaltimoreBrian:

There's something on my article list that Kori might like which I didn't include here but is on my blog.


Which post, Brian?
It's in the middle of comment 598.

"A thing of beauty is a joy forever" - John Keats 1818
Quoting 165. vis0:

tried to correct a html error so my post doesn't ruin the blogs format but its not accepting the edit ....POOF goes all that work.


Just link the articles you are interested in maybe? I couldn't figure out what you were trying to do.
Kori are you still up for the air force.? Baltimore always my respects.
Quoting 169. Wolfberry:

Kori are you still up for the air force.? Baltimore always my respects.



Yes! I'm actually more confident about my future now than I ever have been. I've been studying 4 to 5 times a week, and I even studied twice yesterday. I don't even think I'll need but a few months to get the GED, but I'll be sticking around in Louisiana until around this time next year before doing anything else because I have a few last minute plans.
Some 80-84 mph winds reported W of OKC and blowing into city now.
NWS SRV 1130 pm cdt
172. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu though colours i re-filtered are not their product. Masculine colors = worst weather. AniGif::L

Quoting 170. KoritheMan:



Yes! I'm actually more confident about my future now than I ever have been. I've been studying 4 to 5 times a week, and I even studied twice yesterday. I don't even think I'll need but a few months to get the GED, but I'll be sticking around in Louisiana until around this time next year before doing anything else because I have a few last minute plans.


Kori it's not weather related but I am personally giving you a shout out..back to where the reach on the friends you choose, the plain spoken truth, which I admire you for ..working at Qal Mart ( that was a W) and wishing to chase severe weather..
Quoting 173. Wolfberry:



Kori it's not weather related but I am personally giving you a shout out..back to where the reach on the friends you choose, the plain spoken truth, which I admire you for ..working at Qal Mart ( that was a W) and wishing to chase severe weather..


My people skills are horrible, and I'm knowingly socially awkward. I don't have many friends, but the ones I do have I treasure a lot.

Funny how I tend to give off the opposite impression to ignorant onlookers. :P

But that's my own fault, I suppose.
175. vis0


image host
176. vis0
img src="image host">
177. vis0
image host
I honestly, truly take offense when people relegate online interactions to just "e-friends". It's one of the few things I can think of that genuinely makes me mad. Whether it's directed at me or others, I find it completely disrespectful to effectively **** on a friendship like that.
179. vis0
CREDIT:: Japan Meteorological Agency
SAT TYPE:: water vapour
SUBJECT:: Super Typhoon Maysak 2015
D&T::
UTC Time on insert might be off as inserted that overlay without syncing it, do not read as official time.

http://youtu.be/sJHgh0htkWU(474x224 as below)
180. vis0
Quoting 178. KoritheMan:

I honestly, truly take offense when people relegate online interactions to just "e-friends". It's one of the few things I can think of that genuinely makes me mad. Whether it's directed at me or others, I find it completely disrespectful to effectively **** on a friendship like that.
A-ha found something i disagree with. To me if one raises those that are no where as close, which makes it hard to tell if that other person is lying how can that person be raised to the same level as a real life friend? Family first, real life friends second, acquaintances 3rd, those i know at jobs but don't know each other too well 4th, past acquaintances 5th, the ones i have on the webnet are 6th and what can one call them as to raise them to the level of real friends. Again i'm typing of those you don't see in real life at best only see an icon. WEATHER:: chilly here in NYc mid 30s city, clearing skies for AM...
Good morning, unfortunately with some bad new numbers of yesterday's European "Niklas":

At least nine dead as fatal storms hit Germany and Austria
BBC News, 2 hours ago
At least nine people have been killed in gales that have battered Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the UK.
Seven people were killed in Germany, including two men whose car was hit by a tree.
German media reports that there have been dozens of injuries from flying branches.
In Austria, a man fell from a ladder and suffered fatal head injuries while securing an awning over his patio.
Forecasters said that on Germany's highest mountain, the Zugspitze, winds of more than 190km/h (118 mph) were recorded.
Rail services were disrupted and the main station in Munich had to be evacuated due to concerns that parts of the roof might collapse. ...

Whole article with pictures see link above. Other German news already count 10 fatalities.


Top gales yesterday (km/h). Source wetteronline.

Video from wetteronline's weather reporter, taken at a lake (! - not the sea) in Bavaria (Chiemsee).


Another video from Bavarian lake Ammersee:


Impression from Dresden:



Rail car in Bavaria after its encounter with a fallen tree. Click the picture to get the photo gallery of Spiegel News.

Weather is still unsettled. Here the latest from Estofex:
SYNOPSIS: An outbreak of arctic maritime airmass is ongoing over much of western and central Europe in the wake of the large trough. Prevailing northwesterly flow will overspread a belt from the Atlantic towards northern Balkans. In this belt, unstable conditions will prevail with scattered to widespread low topped showers and thunderstorms. Also thanks to the strong pressure gradient between a high centered over the Atlantic and a low centered over the Baltic states, strong background flow with widespread gusts over 20 m/s and isolated gusts over 25 m/s is forecast.
Use link above to get the whole forecast.
Super Typhoon Maysak: Storm slams into Yap state in Federated States of Micronesia; fatalities confirmed in Chuuk state
ABC News, By Pacific Beat and Shirley Escalante in Manila, Updated about 2 hours ago

BBC Weather @bbcweather 24 min. ago:
Take a look at this incredible image of the eye of Super Typhoon #Maysak taken from space... Simon
Quoting 181. barbamz:

Good morning, unfortunately with some bad new numbers of yesterday's European "Niklas":

At least nine dead as fatal storms hit Germany and Austria
BBC News, 2 hours ago
At least nine people have been killed in gales that have battered Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the UK.
Seven people were killed in Germany, including two men whose car was hit by a tree.
German media reports that there have been dozens of injuries from flying branches.
In Austria, a man fell from a ladder and suffered fatal head injuries while securing an awning over his patio.
Forecasters said that on Germany's highest mountain, the Zugspitze, winds of more than 190km/h (118 mph) were recorded.
Rail services were disrupted and the main station in Munich had to be evacuated due to concerns that parts of the roof might collapse. ...


Add two fatalities in Holland (building collapse). Not a special gale in numbers, but apparently gustiness/resonances were thus to cause a remarkable amount of damage.
Quoting 180. vis0:

A-ha found something i disagree with. To me if one raises those that are no where as close, which makes it hard to tell if that other person is lying how can that person be raised to the same level as a real life friend? Family first, real life friends second, acquaintances 3rd, those i know at jobs but don't know each other too well 4th, past acquaintances 5th, the ones i have on the webnet are 6th and what can one call them as to raise them to the level of real friends. Again i'm typing of those you don't see in real life at best only see an icon. WEATHER:: chilly here in NYc mid 30s city, clearing skies for AM...



It doesn't logically follow that distance/anonymity masks who a person truly is. For some people it might, but for the majority of people, Occam's Razor suggests you are wrong.

Some of my best friends have come from the Internet. To me there IS no such distinguished nonsense as "real life" and "Internet".

Don't make me come and have to prove that. :P :P :P
Yes let's talk about dramatics on the blig :).Just like how every new super Typhoon or major hurricane is "the best looking storm I've ever seen and will cause cataclysmic destruction" Until the next one forms and the cycle repeats.As for wishing for a cat 5 why would I do that?
Oh look



A blob
188. Hugo5
Hello again,

Super Typhoon Maysak continues to make the headlines in the weather community with bloggers. The real story is taking place in the wake of Typhoon Maysak because the next big typhoon that will make a run at super typhoon is coming. conditions for this still unmarked tropical depression are favorable for development. For the next 24-36 hours it will continue to develop slowly due to a small upper level disturbance that is to the south east and west of the storm, inhibiting the storms outflow in these sectors. after around 24-36 hours the storm should be far enough past these disturbances then they should no longer effect its development.

both disturbances in the Indian ocean that I had remarked on making a possible run for tropical cyclones have dissipated. Both systems are now moving over cooler waters and starting to take on more extra tropical characteristics, there are no other possible systems in the Indian Ocean that I can see developing in the next 48-72 hour time frame into anything.

The small low pressure that had really no chance of developing in the GOM has moved off with the frontal system is was associated with. There was hardly any possibility that it would have developed in the first place, but it was worth mentioning since waters in the GOM are warm enough to support development. Vertical instability in the Atlantic is still low, but was on the uptick in the GOM, which is why I mentioned the possible low . A couple of waves have already started to move further north of the equator, which is a good sign that the Atlantic season could be active, but that remains to be seen.

Thanks for your time again Hugo5
Quoting 180. vis0:

WEATHER:: chilly here in NYc mid 30s city, clearing skies for AM...



Forgot to put the car in the garage overnight. Woke up to beads (some small, some large) of ice covering the car. Wipers frozen to the windshield. Thought I could expedite the melting process by using some windshield cleaner, so I pushed the lever. Nothing. Popped the hood and found the washer bucket empty.

Needless to say, I haven't started the day off too well. At least it should all be downhill from here....... RIGHT??
in 92 there was nothing hardly a tropical wave until we had Andrew. inactive seasons scare me too.
Area of 6C anomalies now showing up. Look inside the 5C circle and you can see there is an area of 6C anomalies now growing in size. Daily ESPI now up to 0.87 and SOI at -11.

The Weather ChannelVerified account
‏@weatherchannel
INCREDIBLE footage of a powerful #tornado in #India you have to see to believe:


last hurricane season was a sleeper couple fish alittle rock and roll for carib boy that was about it.
Good Morning! It is April 1, 2015.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins 2 months from today!

My EARLY predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

7-9 Named Storms
5-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes

Not wishing this on anyone, but a possible hurricane landfall in Florida or the Gulf Coast.

If the current El Nino trends continue, we still have to be ready. The years 1947, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, and 1992, were very slow years in the number of named Atlantic named storms. However, those years also featured major U.S. hurricane landfalls.

Let's hope that after dealing with the 2004-2005, and 2008 hyper-active hurricane seasons with multiple U.S. landfalls, that coastal residents don't let their guard down.
Quoting 194. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning! It is April 1, 2015.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins 2 months from today!

My EARLY predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

7-9 Named Storms
5-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes

Not wishing this on anyone, but a possible hurricane landfall in Florida or the Gulf Coast.

If the current El Nino trends continue, we still have to be ready. The years 1947, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, and 1992, were very slow years in the number of named Atlantic named storms. However, those years also featured major U.S. hurricane landfalls.

Let's hope that after dealing with the 2004-2005, and 2008 hyper-active hurricane seasons with multiple U.S. landfalls, that coastal residents don't let their guard down.


Good forecast!
Dr. Vicente Malano, PAGASA Administrator on Typhoon Maysak

Published on Apr 1, 2015
State weather bureau PAGASA update on Typhoon Maysak
Good Morning. Here is the NWS headline for the day and short-term WPC forecast for Conus:


Slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma expects a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday. Isolated reports of severe weather are possible in the Southeast and the Mississippi Valley. However, the greatest area of concern will be from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. The primary threat for all areas will be large hail and damaging winds. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Wed Apr 01 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2015 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio Valley...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average for parts of the
Upper Midwest into the Southern High Plains...

A storm over the Northern Plains will move Northeastward into Ontario by
Thursday evening. The system will produce light rain over parts of the
Upper Great Lakes along with rain/snow over parts of the Central Rockies
on Wednesday morning. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will interest the
associated front over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Central Plains
on Wednesday afternoon producing showers and thunderstorms with moderate
rain. The area of showers and thunderstorms will move southeastward and
expand into Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley by Thursday.
Rain will also develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes that will move
into the Lower Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast while intensifying
to light to moderate rain by Thursday evening. Light rain will also move
into parts of the Central/Northern Appalachians.

In addition, upper-level energy over the Southern Plains will move
northeastward to the Central Appalachians by Thursday. The energy will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. The showers
and thunderstorms will taper off to an area over Eastern Texas by Thursday
morning. Additionally, upper-level energy moving onshore over the West
Coast will move inland to the Central Rockies/Great Basin by Thursday
evening. The disturbance will produce rain along the Pacific Northwest
Coast through late Wednesday night. Snow will also develop over parts of
the higher elevations of the Northwest and the Northern Rockies through
Thursday morning. Snow will develop over parts of the Central
Rockies/Great Basin on Thursday morning, expanding into parts of the
Northern Rockies by Thursday evening. An area of moderate snow will
develop over parts of the Central Rockies by Thursday evening, too. Light
to moderate rain will develop over parts of the Central High Plains by
Thursday evening.


Raw Maysak Clips Medium from Chuuk

Published on Mar 31, 2015
Credit: Hiroyuki Mori
I miss the April Fools science entry.
And here is the current look for Conus and relative position of the jet pet GFS. That traditional tornado spawning split-flow mentioned in Mr. Hensons Blog entry, as the polar jet starts retreating to the North, is not fully established yet (only over MS and Florida) over the Mid-West but we should start to see more mid-level shear emerge over tornado alley over the next few weeks.


201. MahFL
Maysak is about the size of the whole Philippines.

Sky,
That was a super confusing interview. With interviewer and Dr. Milano drifting in and out of English in the middle of questions and answers. I bet their subtitle folks have a FIT! Between his excellent English, foreign place names, and Pilipino I couldn't tell if I was understanding what he was saying or not.
Quoting biff4ugo:
I miss the April Fools science entry.
Try here...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1003 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
020215-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1003 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

is there a new blog 4/2??