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Deadly Tornado Pummels Mobile Home Park in Oklahoma

By: Bob Henson 4:03 PM GMT on March 26, 2015

Two Oklahoma suburbs took the brunt of damage from a rapid-fire severe weather outbreak that developed Wednesday afternoon. At least one person was killed and another critically injured when a tornado and/or accompanying downdraft winds moved across a manufactured home park in Sand Springs, just west of Tulsa. A number of mobile homes were reportedly destroyed in the high winds. Just south of Oklahoma City, the long-suffering town of Moore--struck by catastrophic F5/EF5 tornadoes in 1999 and 2013 and a deadly tornado that produced F3 damage in Moore in 2003--experienced yet another twister, though fortunately a much weaker one than its predecessors. Overall, the severe weather on Wednesday covered a swath from central Oklahoma to southeast Missouri, producing a preliminary count of 8 tornadoes and more than 110 reports of severe hail, some as large as baseballs.



Figure 1. First responders work to free a man from a pile of rubble after a round of severe weather hit a trailer park near 145th West Avenue and West 17th Street in Sand Springs, Okla., Wednesday, March 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Tulsa World, Matt Barnard) 

Wednesday’s damage in Sand Springs is a painful reminder of our lack of national policy on mobile home safety in tornadoes. Winds of no more than 110 mph (a borderline EF1/EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Damage Scale) can destroy the roof and walls of a typical manufactured home, or cause it to roll over. Although just 5% of Americans live in mobile homes, anywhere from 25% to 50% of tornado-related deaths in a typical year occur in such homes, including 17 of 47 U.S. deaths in 2014, 17 of 55 deaths in 2013, and 48 of 68 deaths in 2012, according to data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Thousands of mobile home residents live on acreages with no ready source of safe shelter, but even those who live in mobile home parks often lack an underground refuge. Although the state of Minnesota and some localities mandate shelters, safe rooms, and/or an evacuation plan when mobile home parks reach a certain size, there is no such national requirement. Where shelters do exist, they often fall prey to vandalism or are used for other purposes. One Sand Springs resident told the Tulsa World that as Wednesday’s tornado bore down, she discovered that her RV park’s designated shelter was “full of washing machines”.


Figure 2. The paths of the Moore, Oklahoma tornadoes from May 3, 1999 (green); May 8, 2003 (blue); and May 20, 2013 (red), together with the preliminary path of the March 25, 2015 tornado (yellow). This year’s tornado crossed the path of the 1999 tornado near the northwest edge of Moore and intersected the 2013 path near Interstate 35. Image credit: NWS/Norman and NWS.

Few if any cities have experienced the kind of protracted bad luck with tornadoes that Moore has had to deal with (see Figure 2). The city endured major twisters on May 3, 1999 (killing 36 and injuring 583 along its full path); May 8, 2003; and May 20, 2013 (killing 24 and injuring 377 along its full path). Wednesday’s tornado was far less destructive, mostly knocking out windows and destroying carports and trees, although it blew over some vehicles and knocked out the three transmission towers of the radio station KOKC (formerly KOMA, which broadcast from a separate tower in the mid-1950s that was the world’s largest structure at the time).

TWC's Jon Erdman has a nice article on the Moore and Oklahoma City Tornado History.

Bob Henson
Tornado Warned Supercell
Tornado Warned Supercell
Spring Sky
Spring Sky
A gorgeous display of mammatus clouds, just before a tornado warning was issued for our area.
Storms rolling in
Storms rolling in
Storms headed our way

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tornado Alley.?...More like Tornado Turnpike...
With all we know and prepare, nature still rules the roost


The GFS continues to struggle predicting accurate rainfall totals in FL. It is showing virtually no rain for my location from 12Z until Monday. Doesn't seem likely to verify.
Quoting 2. Patrap:

With all we know and prepare, nature still rules the roost
She can rearrange the roost. And do it quick..
Good Morning and thanks for the update.
Thank You for the careful details on the weather yesterday and the mobile home issue. Same comment was made on TWC last night as to the issue of mobile home parks needing a shelter on the premises for residents to evacuate to. I hope that this tragedy results in legislation in the tornado alley states for the owners of mobile home parks. A sad reality for many of the "poorer" areas where the places are located is that the some of owners are almost slumlords with little or no maintenance provided to the older homes they often provide. They pack trailers on a large lot/acreage and rent them out often to the retired or lower income folks. Not a bad way to get rental income, and a reasonable housing solution for folks with fixed incomes, but the least the owners could do, if they live in tornado prone areas, is to have the common shelter or bunker as a requirement on the property for folks to take shelter in.

This is a remarkable statistic:

Although just 5% of Americans live in mobile homes, anywhere from 25% to 50% of tornado-related deaths in a typical year occur in such homes, including 17 of 47 U.S. deaths in 2014, 17 of 55 deaths in 2013, and 48 of 68 deaths in 2012, according to data from NOAA%u2019s Storm Prediction Center.
With all we know and prepare, nature still rules the roost




well said
Thanks for the update.
Based on damage photos thus far, in comparison with the EF-scale damage indicators , it looks likely that the Moore tornado will be rated EF-2 (roof torn off an elementary school) and the Sand Springs tornado a high-end EF-2 or low-end EF-3 (complete destruction of double-wide mobile home).

Quite the overperformance for a day that didn't even have a Tornado Watch issued (and somewhat troubling, one must say).
On a related note, and my Father in Law lives in a mobile home community, but on larger lots in a community on the FL/GA border, they are on their own when bad weather hits; if/when tornadoes threaten those parts, we tell him and his wife to leave their home and come over to our house to ride it out. Also, while I live in a wooden house in North Leon County, we do have a concrete safe room-basement under the house accessible from the kitchen down a staircase. That is where we would evacuate to if a tornado threatened our home.
Link
My apology blog.
I lived just off SW 134th that turns into 4th street in Moore.
I'm glad I don't live there any more. Very dangerous area for sure.

Graduated from Moore High School

Posted this earlier.
The development along the dry line was quite remarkable yesterday.

Here the skinny from Tally NWS on the complex off North Florida headed inbound; the lack of the jet over these parts at the momement should keep system from approaching severe limits in terms of mid-level shear issues (hence the current lack of any tornado watches):


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
903 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SOUTH OF MOBILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAVORABLE JET COUPLING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVERLAPPING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
JET. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST- NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TODAY AND AFFECT
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY LOCATED OFFSHORE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES ANALYZED OVER 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR.
THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

Here the skinny from Tally NWS on the complex off North Florida headed inbound; the lack of the jet over these parts at the momement should keep system from approaching severe limits in terms of mid-level shear issues (hence the current lack of any tornado watches):


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
903 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SOUTH OF MOBILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAVORABLE JET COUPLING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVERLAPPING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
JET. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST- NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TODAY AND AFFECT
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY LOCATED OFFSHORE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES ANALYZED OVER 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR.
THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.



The nasty looking cells that were developing over the northern Gulf a few hours ago appear to be weakening. Still, lots of moderate to heavy rain with all of this.
Quoting 17. tampabaymatt:



The nasty looking cells that were developing over the northern Gulf a few hours ago appear to be weakening. Still, lots of moderate to heavy rain with all of this.


The cooler surface waters in Appalachee Bay, on the Big Bend coast, tend to provide some stability (the "stabilizing effect of the Bay) as referenced in past Tally NWS discussions, so we often see a bit of waning in t-storm activity as they head into these parts of the West or from the Coast. But the Panhandle is usually rocked pretty good on the way to these parts. The worst with this system has remained off the coast all morning.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here the skinny from Tally NWS on the complex off North Florida headed inbound; the lack of the jet over these parts at the momement should keep system from approaching severe limits in terms of mid-level shear issues (hence the current lack of any tornado watches):


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
903 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SOUTH OF MOBILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAVORABLE JET COUPLING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVERLAPPING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
JET. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST- NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TODAY AND AFFECT
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY LOCATED OFFSHORE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES ANALYZED OVER 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR.
THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.


Cape is really high out in the GOM and actually down in my area of S.W. Florida.
But the front won't get down here until tomorrow so I'll have to watch and see how things change.

HRRR also goes crazy with the convection offshore, but the convection weakens dramatically after it comes onshore.





Just took a peek outside, brighter than earlier, so getting closer to clearing out the backend of the system. Had another .6" in the gauge from last night, so 1.4" total. One little rumble last night was it for us, had 4 or 5 Tues along w/ some good flashes.

N winds firmly in control now, 5-10 w/ 20+ gusts, press slightly over 30", up to 38, might actually get close forecast high today (47), were about 10 short last two days. 3 below freezing mornings to come, still have us in lower 20s Sat morning in S C IL. Look to be back to avg as Apr arrives though.
dabirds is this the time of the year for your severe weather as well?
Quoting 20. dabirds:

Just took a peek outside, brighter than earlier, so getting closer to clearing out the backend of the system. Had another .6" in the gauge from last night, so 1.4" total. One little rumble last night was it for us, had 4 or 5 Tues along w/ some good flashes.

N winds firmly in control now, 5-10 w/ 20+ gusts, press slightly over 30", up to 38, might actually get close forecast high today (47), were about 10 short last two days. 3 below freezing mornings to come, still have us in lower 20s Sat morning in S C IL. Look to be back to avg as Apr arrives though.



I got .62 inches of rain last night and .47 inches tuesday.
Heart goes out to Moore
Quoting 21. Dakster:

dabirds is this the time of the year for your severe weather as well?



Normally this is around the time it ramps up but there hasn't been any since october 13th.
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Based on damage photos thus far, in comparison with the EF-scale damage indicators , it looks likely that the Moore tornado will be rated EF-2 (roof torn off an elementary school) and the Sand Springs tornado a high-end EF-2 or low-end EF-3 (complete destruction of double-wide mobile home).

Quite the overperformance for a day that didn't even have a Tornado Watch issued (and somewhat troubling, one must say).


Yeah, the NWS had a 5% over part of the affected area. Moore, Oklahoma is on the edge of the 2% area.
So going back the NWS will look at why they didn't feel the need to extend the higher probabilities back into central Oklahoma.

But overall, they did a pretty good job of picking the areas most likely to see a tornado.


I feel something is in the air that has been absent for months (Gasp) humidity!
Severe weather season has climatologically begun in the Mid Atlantic. Not happy although frankly I don't see much risk in the next two weeks. During convective outbreaks I always feel like a spot on a dart board and hope mother nature's darts hit elsewhere although in summer I do want most of the rain (the 4" daily dumps I can do without, last one of these was June 10/2014!)

Quoting 27. washingtonian115:

I feel something is in the air that has been absent for months (Gasp) humidity!


It will only last several hundred minutes before being blown out of here by the next cold front. Thinking about starting cool season garden 3/30 after this weekend's cold outbreak which I still think local forecasts are underdoing (they are too warm Fri and Sat night)

Youtube Video by (BaseHuntersChasing)
of yesterday's Sand Springs (Tulsa area) Tornado. It's just 4 minutes long and they were the ones that made the video from under the overpass.

Link
The area around Moore, Ok must be the most tornado prone area in the US ..

The city of Moore was damaged by significant tornadoes on April 5, 1951, April 28, 1960, May 19, 1960, November 17, 1973, October 4, 1998, May 3, 1999, May 8, 2003, May 10, 2010, and May 20, 2013.
Overall, Moore has had 16 recorded tornadoes since official records began in 1950.
It is not good--- I Think------ That the 1st small outbreak and we have our 1st fatality. That does not bode well for the rest of the Tornado Season. Looks like we might make up for the lack of activity with the deadliness of those that do occur.

I hope I am wrong.
Quoting 27. washingtonian115:

I feel something is in the air that has been absent for months (Gasp) humidity!


I feel something is in the air that has been in the air for months (Gasp) humidity! LOL
This is a little out of date (only showing ,1962 to 2011), but it proves a point.
Tornadoes affecting central Oklahoma

Quoting 33. WeatherBAC:



I feel something is in the air that has been in the air for months (Gasp) humidity! LOL


In a very warm humid atmosphere that 21% Oxygen and 78% Nitrogen ratio we learned about in second grade science becomes 20% Oxygen, 75% Nitrogen and 4% water vapor.
As Tim answered Dak, it is, Apr/May being the peak, but lately the worst ones seem to be Feb. or fall lately. Speaking of which, how's Washington doing wabit, we don't hear much here about them anymore? A note about the last two worst ones in IL, both Harrisburg and Washington had teams deep in playoffs (basketball & football respectively) when they were hit by out of peak tornadoes, that helped rally their towns a little.

Around 40 now, still haven't cleared out yet. Looks like some light rain trying to run along I-70's S side keeping us in clouds a little longer despite the N winds.
Quoting 29. georgevandenberghe:



It will only last several hundred minutes before being blown out of here by the next cold front. Thinking about starting cool season garden 3/30 after this weekend's cold outbreak which I still think local forecasts are underdoing (they are too warm Fri and Sat night)


The sun is out to but after today I don't expect to see much of it for a while.My poor rose bushes are struggling.
Quoting 35. georgevandenberghe:



In a very warm humid atmosphere that 21% Oxygen and 78% Nitrogen ratio we learned about in second grade science becomes 20% Oxygen, 75% Nitrogen and 4% water vapor.

I think your 2nd grade science was a bit more advanced than mine. I remember growing bean sprouts, with some being put on the windowsill, in the closet (no light), some not watered, etc. Yup, that's about it. No periodic table and percents for us :)
Video of the Moore tornado as it crossd I35 blowing over a Semi Truck. There was also a pickup that was flipped over in the same area shutting down I35 yesterday evening.

Explicit language Warning! Language not suitable for children.

Link
Thunderstorms forming with the S.W. Flow out in front of the main line of storms to the north.
Very warm and humid down here in Fort Myers.
Strong thunderstorms erupting west of Orlando. Going to be an interesting afternoon here for sure.

Quoting 38. LAbonbon:


I think your 2nd grade science was a bit more advanced than mine. I remember growing bean sprouts, with some being put on the windowsill, in the closet (no light), some not watered, etc. Yup, that's about it. No periodic table and percents for us :)

I am so old I don't remember second grade!!!!!!
Main line of storms up in north Florida. Storms seem to weaken into heavy rain as they move inland.
Thanks Bob...
Link
I'm sorry you guys.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

The sun is out to but after today I don't expect to see much of it for a while.My poor rose bushes are struggling.


Roses are hurt more by early spring warmth followed by intense cold. Mine are safe so far because they haven't broken dormancy. Fruit growers are silent but are probably not complaining about the spring so far because trees aren't close to a vulnerable state yet.
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:

Main line of storms up in north Florida. Storms seem to weaken into heavy rain as they move inland.



Kind of seems like the rain will arrive earlier than what local mets originally said. On this morning's news, local mets said the line wouldn't hit Tampa until 7-8 AM Friday morning.
Pretty good crack thunder just a bit ago over in Maitland. Lightning strike hit was really close.

Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:

Strong thunderstorms erupting west of Orlando. Going to be an interesting afternoon here for sure.




Yeah it's an early summer like air mass down there, pretty good surface CAPE and plenty of moisture.


I just got back about 15 minutes ago from school, I've been riding my bike to school to save money on gas and because parking is a pain in the rear at school so I actually got to class faster living 4 miles away and biking there than driving there lol.

Anyways, I just got soaked riding home, it's not a tropical down pour or anything but it's pretty heavy, heavier than it it looks on radar. It looks more like light to moderate rain but the rainfall rate is probably about 0.50 an hour or so.

Quoting tampabaymatt:


Kind of seems like the rain will arrive earlier than what local mets originally said. On this morning's news, local mets said the line wouldn't hit Tampa until 7-8 AM Friday morning.


Agree. I think the main line will come in over night. That should greatly reduce the severe threat for us without the daytime heating.
Quoting 42. lostinohio:


I am so old I don't remember second grade!!!!!!


I'm 19 and I don't remember second grade
Wind is really picking up along the beaches. Clearwater had a gust to 19kts.
From the ground in Tallahassee; a few rumbles of thunder about an hour ago but basically just overcast, steady light rain, and no wind whatsoever; it looks worse on the overhead sat shots and radar loops.
Thanks, Mr. Henson.

Quite a bad day yesterday. Basehunters, which usually gets the best video of tornadoes while remaining safe, for whatever reason decided to shelter under an overpass. The NWS office in Norman, which is commonly referred to as the best WFO in the nation, took 8 minutes to issue a tornado warning for Moore from the time the tornado touched down in the city, and they completely missed a tornado southwest of El Reno (I posted a radar frame of this last night).
Agree. I think the main line will come in over night. That should greatly reduce the severe threat for us without the daytime heating.



ahhh.....come on luv......think big.....don't be such a spoil sport....i can remember when some would start peeing their pants over a little thunder and lightning...let them have their show
I'm about to get hit hard from what appears to be a developing severe thunderstorm.

StormTracker Scott there is a severe ell next to you stay safe and take cover if need be
Elders React to Thundersnow

"To get that excited over the weather is kind of unusual"

They don't understand us!
Wind is really picking up along the beaches. Clearwater had a gust to 19kts.

hey jr...it's all a matter of perspective....we had wind speeds all afternoon and ino the early evening with gusts over 30......that's a typical spring day.....we'll see plenty of wind over 45 and gusts over 70 before summer comes.....19kts...doesn't get a mention
Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:

I'm about to get hit hard from what appears to be a developing severe thunderstorm.




There are some nasty looking storms popping up all over Orlando.
Lots of branches down some big winds must have been atleast 50mph.
Quoting 50. luvtogolf:



Agree. I think the main line will come in over night. That should greatly reduce the severe threat for us without the daytime heating.


The diurnal cycle means the reverse for water, max instability over water is typically during early morning. However what you say would be true for areas inland, also because the land heats up much more rapidly during the day and cools more at night the ocean, the instability difference is much greater between day and night over land than water.

So even though development for thunderstorms over the water is best suited for the night into early morning, the variation isn't nearly as dramatic as over land. What impacts thunderstorm development over water is much more dependent on lifting mechanism from low pressure systems whether it be tropical or non-tropical than over land.
Quoting 61. tampabaymatt:



There are some nasty looking storms popping up all over Orlando.


Strong winds with these cells. Street outside my office is a mess.
Quoting 56. ricderr:

Agree. I think the main line will come in over night. That should greatly reduce the severe threat for us without the daytime heating.



ahhh.....come on luv......think big.....don't be such a spoil sport....i can remember when some would start peeing their pants over a little thunder and lightning...let them have their show


Some people really are terrified of thunder and lightning, this probably isn't the area of the country to live if one is fearful of lightning lol.

Some better suggestions would be the west coast of the U.S. or Alaska.
My heart goes out to all those affected in Moore. They just seem to never get a break. On the other hand, Ex-TC Nathan just wont give up, its remnant circulation back over water. Though GFS and ECMWF doesn't do nothing with it. Still looks decent though. Looks like he loves sticking around.



Jedkins is correct in his comment below; this current Florida disturbance is embedded in the trof moving through and not directly related to a low in the Gulf; if that was the case, we would be seeing some much stronger winds.
Quoting ricderr:
Agree. I think the main line will come in over night. That should greatly reduce the severe threat for us without the daytime heating.



ahhh.....come on luv......think big.....don't be such a spoil sport....i can remember when some would start peeing their pants over a little thunder and lightning...let them have their show


I'm a realist. No hype. If we're going to get hit bad I'll be the first to warn ya. Over the course of a year we get hit with so many thunderstorms that I don't go crazy over every clap of thunder. Just as long as they don't mess with my golf game I'm cool with that.

Speaking if Texas winds, the PGA tour is in San Antonio and the winds are wreaking havoc with the players. It is looking like the highest scoring average round on the tour since the US Open on '07..
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:



Strong winds with these cells. Street outside my office is a mess.


The Tampa sounding shows a mid level dry slot, which allows cooling of lapse rates in the dry zone due to evaporative cooling as well as helping to boost the downburst power, this sounding would explain your gusty experience:

BTW sad to see our March tornado drought ended in a tornado death. Although it was only a matter of time before that happened, in the same way at some point the major hurricane drought in the southern U.S. will end some point too.
Quoting 70. Jedkins01:



The Tampa sounding shows a mid level dry slot, which allows cooling of lapse rates in the dry zone due to evaporative cooling as well as helping to boost the downburst power, this sounding would explain your gusty experience:




Storms in the Gulf are holding together as well and should approach the west coast of FL in 2hrs which will only add to the instability across the area.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The diurnal cycle means the reverse for water, max instability over water is typically during early morning. However what you say would be true for areas inland, also because the land heats up much more rapidly during the day and cools more at night the ocean, the instability difference is much greater between day and night over land than water.

So even though development for thunderstorms over the water is best suited for the night into early morning, the variation isn't nearly as dramatic as over land. What impacts thunderstorm development over water is much more dependent on lifting mechanism from low pressure systems whether it be tropical or non-tropical than over land.


I hear ya what you are saying but I haven't seen too many severe storms at 4:00 in the morning. Unless of course I've slept through them and missed out😴
Quoting 53. jrweatherman:

Wind is really picking up along the beaches. Clearwater had a gust to 19kts.
yes wind gusts are getting stronger here too now but suns still out no rain yet.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FLZ021-022-262015-
COLUMBIA FL-SUWANNEE FL-
325 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER OBRIEN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...WHITE SPRINGS...COLUMBIA...WELLBORN...OBRIEN...FIVE
POINTS...WATERTOWN...MCALPIN...WINFIELD...SUWANNEE VALLEY...BRANFORD
AND HOUSTON.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes wind gusts are getting stronger here too now but suns still out no rain yet.


S.W. flow off the GOM.
26 mph gust in Fort Myers was the highest currently listed in Florida.

Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:



S.W. flow off the GOM.
26 mph gust in Fort Myers was the highest currently listed in Florida.


yes winds tonight and tomorrow as the front gets here will probably get stronger.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035 >038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-271000-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-ATKINSON-
BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-
CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS -
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-
WARE-WAYNE-
334 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT THE BEACHES DUE
TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE MORNING
THROUGH 2 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Got a 28 mph in Immokalee and 29 mph in Everglades City. Good kite flying.

This is a intense storm that is moving thru Seminole County surprised no warning or weather advisory issued as the winds are very strong as this storm moves thru.

Quoting LargoFl:
yes winds tonight and tomorrow as the front gets here will probably get stronger.


Yeah, but so far no warnings or storm reports (hail, high winds, tornadoes) anywhere in the state.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
...STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

&&
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:



Strong winds with these cells. Street outside my office is a mess.


Caught a good downdraft from that cell, not severe. No severe warnings for Central FL from the NWS.
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, but so far no warnings or storm reports (hail, high winds, tornadoes) anywhere in the state.
Jacksonville area has hail warnings somewhere in its forecast area
Quoting 74. luvtogolf:



I hear ya what you are saying but I haven't seen too many severe storms at 4:00 in the morning. Unless of course I've slept through them and missed out%uD83D%uDE34


Well you may indeed have slept through some of them lol because there have been some night ones, but yeah as I mentioned, the cycle isn't nearly as strong over land, and since the ocean doesn't have much of a real lifting mechanism of it's own, really what drives thunderstorms over water is dynamic support, upper divergence and low level convergence. The impacts of the diurnal cycle is more minimal in comparison with the ocean unlike the land. With that said, it's more about the timing of low pressure systems when it comes to severe potential off the gulf for the Tampa Bay area.

Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, but so far no warnings or storm reports (hail, high winds, tornadoes) anywhere in the state.
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...WHITE SPRINGS...COLUMBIA...WELLBORN...OBRIEN...FIVE
POINTS...WATERTOWN...MCALPIN...WINFIELD...SUWANNEE VALLEY...BRANFORD
AND HOUSTON.
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, but so far no warnings or storm reports (hail, high winds, tornadoes) anywhere in the state.


There is one lone warning by lake city area, otherwise though nothing severe.
HIDALGO TX 2622 9830 HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MISSION.

That's some pretty big hail falling in S. Texas.
I figured winds were in the 50mph range.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015


FLZ041-046-141-262015-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SEMINOLE-
347 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY...COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY...SEMINOLE...

AT 346 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
WAS OVER SANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DELTONA...DAYTONA BEACH...PORT ORANGE...SANFORD AND OVIEDO.
Hello,

Does anyone know what "California has one more year of water left" means?

We are in a very bad drought, both in reservoir levels and snow pack. I have heard this line before but was just wondering how true it is.

Thanks
We've got a new MCD, but no WW expected "Unlikely."
this storm getting bad now...........................BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 346 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA...OR 8 MILES NORTH
OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...COLUMBIA...WATERTOWN...LULU AND FIVE POINTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
Also, strong storms heading for Fort Pierce. Darn S.W. pushing everything away from S.W. Fl.

Special Weather Statement issued March 26 at 3:47PM EDT until March 26 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS

Effective: Thu Mar 26 15:47:00 EDT 2015
Expires: Thu Mar 26 16:30:00 EDT 2015
Severity: Minor

Affected Areas: Coastal Volusia County; Inland Volusia County; Seminole

Description: ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY...COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...SEMINOLE... AT 346 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WAS OVER SANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DELTONA...DAYTONA BEACH...PORT ORANGE...SANFORD AND OVIEDO.

Nino 1&2 off to the races now. Does appear that a strong El-Nino signature is going to develop of the next few months.




Good Afternoon everyone.

Some pinks showing up on NEXRAD radar which would indicate some potential for small hail, approaching south Daytona area and New Smyrna Beach.





Severe Warned storm near Lake City
Good afternoon Dr. Masters,

It would be an important compilation of data regarding tornado paths in the Rutherford County area of North Carolina. There is a map showing high tornado possibilities in our area (any relation to our local Isothermal belt?) and around Raleigh, NC.
Thank you,
Earl Wallace
earlwalalce@earlwallace.me
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well you may indeed have slept through some of them lol because there have been some night ones, but yeah as I mentioned, the cycle isn't nearly as strong over land, and since the ocean doesn't have much of a real lifting mechanism of it's own, really what drives thunderstorms over water is dynamic support, upper divergence and low level convergence. The impacts of the diurnal cycle is more minimal in comparison with the ocean unlike the land. With that said, it's more about the timing of low pressure systems when it comes to severe potential off the gulf for the Tampa Bay area.



The most impressive squall line I've ever seen on radar was with the Storm Of The Century in '93. If I remember correctly, it came ashore around midnight.
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:

Nino 1&2 off to the races now. Does appear that a strong El-Nino signature is going to develop of the next few months.





This may be one of those El Nino episodes where there is warmer than average sst in the Caribbean, GOM, subtropical Atlantic, and EPAC; while the EPAC should be active, I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic became more active than originally thought. Although, I would agree with most of you that it will come down to how wind shear behaves this season, a 2002/2004 like hurricane season cannot be ruled out imo.
103. 882MB




Quoting 92. Trouper415:

Hello,

Does anyone know what "California has one more year of water left" means?

We are in a very bad drought, both in reservoir levels and snow pack. I have heard this line before but was just wondering how true it is.

Thanks

Hi, Trouper - I think that began with this recent piece in the LA Times:

Op-Ed California has about one year of water stored. Will you ration now?

The piece was written by Jay Famiglietti, "senior water scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech and a professor of Earth system science at UC Irvine."
Quoting luvtogolf:


The most impressive squall line I've ever seen on radar was with the Storm Of The Century in '93. If I remember correctly, it came ashore around midnight.


You talking about the "1998 Kissimmee tornado outbreak?" I posted about it earlier today. Bad night across central Fl.
Link
a 1928 (a very large major hurricane) would cause widespread panic. it could be s. floridas turn this yr.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


You talking about the "1998 Kissimmee tornado outbreak?" I posted about it earlier today. Bad night across central Fl.
Link


No, I certainly remember that too but it was worse for interior Fl than along the coast.
Quoting 102. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This may be one of those El Nino episodes where there is warmer than average sst in the Caribbean, GOM, subtropical Atlantic, and EPAC; while the EPAC should be active, I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic became more active than originally thought. Although, I would agree with most of you that it will come down to how wind shear behaves this season, a 2002/2004 like hurricane season cannot be ruled out imo.


GT I agree I am worried for quick ramp up systems that hit the US. I wouldn't be surprised if the US did get hit by a major this year. I know flack will follow from some but this strong of a -AMO signal with all the warm water focusing from the Gulf to the SW Atlantic is concerning. Even folks at the NHC have noted this saying although low numbers the US could be at a greater risk for impact this Hurricane Season. What do you think?
You're probably talking about the "Storm of the Century"in 93.
Quoting 74. luvtogolf:



I hear ya what you are saying but I haven't seen too many severe storms at 4:00 in the morning. Unless of course I've slept through them and missed out😴


The Midwest and Great Plains have a secondary maximum of convective activity after midnight from LLJ induced storms just north of boundaries.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
418 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FLC023-262030-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150326T2030Z/
COLUMBIA FL-
418 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 417 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN...OR NEAR LAKE CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...WATERTOWN...LULU AND FIVE POINTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
You're probably talking about the "Storm of the Century"in 93.


That is it. I remember going down to Clearwater Harbor early the next morning and the winds were blowing like a strong tropical storm.
Quoting 105. Sfloridacat5:



You talking about the "1998 Kissimmee tornado outbreak?" I posted about it earlier today. Bad night across central Fl.
Link


The 93 squall line was more impressive over a wider and longer area. It produced a Derecho in FL and Cuba. The storm itself also produced an epic storm surge in NW peninsular FL.
The 1998 Kissimmee tornado outbreak was pretty unique producing violent tornadoes between 11pm and 2:30am in the morning.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The 93 squall line was more impressive over a wider and longer area. It produced a Derecho in FL and Cuba. The storm itself also produced an epic storm surge in NW peninsular FL.


Yeah, comment #109
This storm was more well known for the Blizzard it produced.
From Wiki
1993 Storm of the Century
Squall line
Quoting 36. dabirds:

As Tim answered Dak, it is, Apr/May being the peak, but lately the worst ones seem to be Feb. or fall lately. Speaking of which, how's Washington doing wabit, we don't hear much here about them anymore? A note about the last two worst ones in IL, both Harrisburg and Washington had teams deep in playoffs (basketball & football respectively) when they were hit by out of peak tornadoes, that helped rally their towns a little.

Around 40 now, still haven't cleared out yet. Looks like some light rain trying to run along I-70's S side keeping us in clouds a little longer despite the N winds.


I somehow remember that earlier May is typically a bad time in the Mid-west - usually because that is when I am thinking of my long driving vacations that would cut through that area.

We didn't break freezing last night (at least according to the thermometer I have) which is interesting. Still a little snow and ice on the ground in places, but I have a feeling that won't be around for much longer. Of course last year it disappeared here by April 1, only for it snow 6" in mid May...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, comment #109
This storm was more well known for the Blizzard it produced.


Yes for those up north. Didn't it produce a record amount of tornadoes across FL?
GT I agree I am worried for quick ramp up systems that hit the US. I wouldn't be surprised if the US did get hit by a major this year. I know flack will follow from some but this strong of a -AMO signal with all the warm water focusing from the Gulf to the SW Atlantic is concerning. Even folks at the NHC have noted this saying although low numbers the US could be at a greater risk for impact this Hurricane Season. What do you think?


statistically....el nino years have resulted in the lowest tropical system storm damage value for the CONUS...also from wiki....

Tropical cyclones[edit]
Due to changes in upper level winds caused by variations in the ENSO cycle, the likelihood of a North Atlantic hurricane hitting the Continental United States is increased during La Niña conditions, and decreased during El Niño conditions.[1] The inverse of that is true for hurricanes in the eastern and central Pacific.[14]
This just updated. C FL added into the marginal category for this evening. Line in the Gulf may hold together as it comes ashore just north of Tampa.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALM BAY...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...ROCKLEDGE...COCOA BEACH AND SATELLITE BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&
Quoting luvtogolf:


Yes for those up north. Didn't it produce a record amount of tornadoes across FL?


Wiki says 11 tornadoes with 5 killed in the 1993 Storm of the Century.

The Kissimmee event had 12 tornadoes with 42 killed.
Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:

You're probably talking about the "Storm of the Century"in 93.


That might have been the storm of the "Last Centaury,"
Its just Russian roulette as to when the storm of this Centaury unfolds.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
...STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

This just updated. C FL added into the marginal category for this evening. Line in the Gulf may hold together as it comes ashore just north of Tampa.




Local mets this morning said we wouldn't get rain from the front until 7AM Friday morning. That timing looks to be way off as the line seems like it's a few hours away from Tampa.
Tomorrow's CAPE (approaching 4000) in the southern part of Florida will be significantly higher than today's CAPE across northern Fl.
If you stay above you'll be warmer than us (again) Daks. Did finally clear out and we actually are near our mid 40s forecast high. N winds have dropped a little, press stable. Should be a cool but clear weekend, then send March out like a lamb w/ possible rainy start to Apr. (May flowers?)
Quoting 126. GeoffreyWPB:


Great rains for the east central coast!!
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Local mets this morning said we wouldn't get rain from the front until 7AM Friday morning. That timing looks to be way off as the line seems like it's a few hours away from Tampa.


Should be two rounds of rain. One will come through earlier tonight and another round later tonight/tomorrow morning with the front.
Down here probably get round one during the night and then another round some time during the day tomorrow.
Storms holding together approaching western FL now. Will they weaken?

Quoting 129. dabirds:

If you stay above you'll be warmer than us (again) Daks. Did finally clear out and we actually are near our mid 40s forecast high. N winds have dropped a little, press stable. Should be a cool but clear weekend, then send March out like a lamb w/ possible rainy start to Apr. (May flowers?)


Kinda weird that Alaska is warmer than you are... But it has been a strange year.
Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:

Storms holding together approaching western FL now.


poof they disappear

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:04 PM PDT on March 26, 2015
Clear
88.6 °F / 31.4 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 85 °F / 29 °C
Humidity: 13%
Dew Point: 32 °F / 0 °C
Wind: 4.0 mph / 6.4 km/h / 1.8 m/s from the South
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph / 12.9 km/h
Pressure: 30.01 in / 1016 hPa (Falling)
87.5F here at my place
coastal system end of run

Another cold day for you, Ped?
Quoting 135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

poof they disappear


They look to be weakening to me.
... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive
lightning... small hail and 45 to 55 mph winds for northeastern Palm
Beach County until 615 PM EDT...

* at 521 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near the acreage... or 8 miles northwest of Wellington... moving
east to northeast at 25 mph.

* Frequent to excessive lightning... gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph...
small hail... torrential downpours... or a combination of these are
possible. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in
Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds
can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around unsecured
small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm
passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Jupiter... Palm Beach Gardens... Riviera Beach and
Palm Beach.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details or updates.
Heading home and see Yall sometime tomorrow. Slow rainy drive home North this afternoon from Downtown Tally. Everyone stay safe:

Quoting 138. Dakster:

Another cold day for you, Ped?


Low was 59.6 this morning, about what you and birds have together.....
Quoting 136. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:04 PM PDT on March 26, 2015
Clear
88.6 °F / 31.4 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 85 °F / 29 °C
Humidity: 13%
Dew Point: 32 °F / 0 °C
Wind: 4.0 mph / 6.4 km/h / 1.8 m/s from the South
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph / 12.9 km/h
Pressure: 30.01 in / 1016 hPa (Falling)
87.5F here at my place

Ped,
How much rain have you actually received in your area this winter, or over the last 12 months? (More or Less.)
It always seems that you are suffering very high temps with very little rain!
Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:



Wiki says 11 tornadoes with 5 killed in the 1993 Storm of the Century.

The Kissimmee event had 12 tornadoes with 42 killed.
Wiki is probably wrong with the 1993 stats..I believe they are higher...The Kissimmee tornadoes killed at least 42.
Quoting 112. luvtogolf:



That is it. I remember going down to Clearwater Harbor early the next morning and the winds were blowing like a strong tropical storm.
Yep..That was a very powerful storm..I remember it well.
Quoting hydrus:
Wiki is probably wrong with the 1993 stats..I believe they are higher...The Kissimmee tornadoes killed at least 42.


Isn't that what it says? 42 killed

Oh, you think the 1993 event had more than 5 killed?
If Wiki says there are aliens living on the moon, it would have to be true.
Quoting 102. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This may be one of those El Nino episodes where there is warmer than average sst in the Caribbean, GOM, subtropical Atlantic, and EPAC; while the EPAC should be active, I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic became more active than originally thought. Although, I would agree with most of you that it will come down to how wind shear behaves this season, a 2002/2004 like hurricane season cannot be ruled out imo.
Yep.. I believe this year will have similarities to 2004, especially if there is abundant moisture, stalled frontal boundaries over the gulf, and Bermuda High in its usual position ( not near the Azores as past few years ) the usual Nino atmospheric conditions may not play out, making things interesting in the Western Atlantic. Nothing abnormal about the Eastern Pacific other than being very active.
GFS and NAM don't have the front clearing my area until late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Quoting 148. hydrus:

Yep.. I believe this year will have similarities to 2004, especially if there is abundant moisture, stalled frontal boundaries over the gulf, and Bermuda High in its usual position ( not near the Azores as past few years ) the usual Nino atmospheric conditions may not play out, making things interesting in the Western Atlantic. Nothing abnormal about the Eastern Pacific other than being very active.

I am hoping for a cool to warm summer
with rains in between
the oppressive heat can go somewhere else
I don't like the heat it almost's kills me
because there is so much to do
I like cool to warm that's good
Two large hail reports in Florida today.

5 SSW LAKE CITY COLUMBIA FL 3013 8267 A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL. (JAX)

2023 125 FORT PIERCE ST. LUCIE FL 2738 8033 HAIL UP TO A HALF DOLLAR REPORTED NEAR U.S. 1 BETWEEN WEATHERBEE AND TUMBLIN KLING ROADS. (MLB)
Quoting 148. hydrus:

Yep.. I believe this year will have similarities to 2004, especially if there is abundant moisture, stalled frontal boundaries over the gulf, and Bermuda High in its usual position ( not near the Azores as past few years ) the usual Nino atmospheric conditions may not play out, making things interesting in the Western Atlantic. Nothing abnormal about the Eastern Pacific other than being very active.

I have to agree with you on all that, plus the SSTs over a vast amount of the tropics are very well balanced, which in my opinion will lead to the "damp squib," el Niño this year.
Its simply not going to go off according to speculation and may only be an also ran?
With the way the pattern has been going perhaps the gulf will be spared this year.Let's see if Captain Trough Save the U.S will be coming to the rescue and scooping cyclones out of the vicinity of the mainland

the heat source just went out have too see how it goes

There is some lightning with the storms out in the Gulf but certainly nothing excessive.

Quoting 153. washingtonian115:

With the way the pattern has been going perhaps the gulf will be spared this year.Let's see if Captain Trough Save the U.S will be coming to the rescue and scooping cyclones out of the vicinity of the mainland


Trough has been promoted to the rank of General, and is currently kicking our door.
Two reports of wind damage in St. Lucie, Fl. That was with that cell that went through there a little earlier.
Thanks for the blog Mr. Henson! I do want to point out one revision: The May 8th, 2003 Moore Tornado was actually rated an F4. Additionally, Moore was clipped by an EF4 tornado on May 10th, 2010 and almost had another hit from an EF4 on May 24th, 2011. Pretty crazy!
Quoting 146. Sfloridacat5:



Isn't that what it says? 42 killed

Oh, you think the 1993 event had more than 5 killed?
Yes.
I am sorry for all the loss of homes and property. Oklahoma will be in my prayers. Amen.
Quoting 143. PlazaRed:


Ped,
How much rain have you actually received in your area this winter, or over the last 12 months? (More or Less.)
It always seems that you are suffering very high temps with very little rain!


KRAL say 3.20, KCARIVER32 say 2.63, The CoCoRaHS site west of me says 6.27, you choose.. those are since 7/1/2014
Quoting 160. Andrebrooks:

I am sorry for all the loss of homes and property. Oklahoma will be in my prayers. Amen.


its only the start
there will be a few events to come
now is the time of year
too keep ones eyes
peeled to the skies around them
in areas that can have severe storms
Quoting 156. hydrus:

Trough has been promoted to the rank of General, and is currently kicking our door.
The only way I see a storm potentially affecting the gulf is if it forms in the SW Caribbean and is then carried north by the trough into the central gulf..But again with the pattern..It'll probably get shoved into Mexico just like 2010,2011,2012,2013 and 2014.General Ridge Save the U.S will make sure that happens.It seems like the U.S has a defense team that can not be beat!
Quoting 161. PedleyCA:



KRAL say 3.20, KCARIVER32 say 2.63, The CoCoRaHS site west of me says 6.27, you choose.. those are since 7/1/2014

Thanks for that Ped.
Not enough to keep the soil moist, let alone support growing life.
A sort of hell and its nearly April.
All the best with whatever you can squeeze out of the atmosphere.
Quoting 161. PedleyCA:


KRAL say 3.20, KCARIVER32 say 2.63, The CoCoRaHS site west of me says 6.27, you choose.. those are since 7/1/2014


Wow, huge difference from KVNY(7.07, still nowhere near enough).

Link
Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looks like something is burning in Sarasota County. Noticed it on the loop in #164 too.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FLZ025-033-125-262330-
INLAND DUVAL FL-ST. JOHNS FL-COASTAL DUVAL FL-
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 659 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND
TO NEAR FRUIT COVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...FRUIT COVE...NEPTUNE BEACH...SAN
PABLO...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...PALM VALLEY...BAYARD...SAWGRASS...
NOCATEE...DURBIN AND GUANA RIVER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&
Quoting 164. tampabaymatt:


we are in the warning zone matt..should get to us shortly huh
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
710 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FLZ142-148-242-248-262345-
COASTAL CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
CITRUS-
710 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS AND
NORTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTIES...

AT 709 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTH OF HOMOSASSA
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INVERNESS...HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...INVERNESS HIGHLANDS NORTH...INVERNESS
HIGHLANDS SOUTH...INVERNESS AIRPORT...WEEKI WACHEE GARDENS...NORTH
WEEKI WACHEE...SUGARMILL WOODS...LEISURE ACRES...INVERNESS
HIGHLANDS...CHASSAHOWITZKA REFUGE...ROYAL HIGHLANDS...GOSPEL
ISLAND...LAKE LINDSEY...HEATHERWOOD...WITHLAPOPKA ISLE...
ISTACHATTA...FLORAL CITY...GLEN LAKES AND SUBURBAN ACRES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Quoting 168. TimSoCal:



Looks like something is burning in Sarasota County. Noticed it on the loop in #164 too.
won't be burning long more if the rains make it there
Wow the clouds are very dark outside!
Quoting 158. 1900hurricane:

Thanks for the blog Mr. Henson! I do want to point out one revision: The May 8th, 2003 Moore Tornado was actually rated and F4. Additionally, Moore was clipped by an EF4 tornado on May 10th, 2010 and almost had another hit from an EF4 on May 24th, 2011. Pretty crazy!


Thanks for the comment, 1900hurricane. The May 8, 2003, tornado was classified as an F4 based on damage northeast of Moore, but the most intense damage in Moore itself was apparently rated F3, per the online map at NWS/Norman. I've clarified the wording in the blog accordingly.

--Bob H.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its only the start
there will be a few events to come
now is the time of year
too keep ones eyes
peeled to the skies around them
in areas that can have severe storms
That's the truth. Well we have to keep an eye on it, and sorry for what I do.
Quoting 173. washingtonian115:

Wow the clouds are very dark outside!
its night time wash be daytime again in 12 hrs or so
Quoting 168. TimSoCal:



Looks like something is burning in Sarasota County. Noticed it on the loop in #164 too.


SPOT FORECAST FOR SR-70 M J ROAD...FHP TROOP F
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
712 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE
REGION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FIRST LINE OF STORMS COUD IMPACT
THE FIRE LOCATION AS EARLY AS 10 PM ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS
FIRST LINE WILL REACH THE AREA.

Link
Quoting 168. TimSoCal:



Looks like something is burning in Sarasota County. Noticed it on the loop in #164 too.


Probably a controlled burn, which is common this time of year, that area is a state wilderness management area.
Quoting 176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its night time wash be daytime again in 12 hrs or so
There is a thunderstorm near.We still get daylight as late as 7:00 now.


HURRICANE SCORECARD

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Incredible pics. GOD BLESS them all. Somewhat confused about whether they were in fact manufactured homes or trailers. Hurricane prone areas don't allow them anymore . I live in a manufactured home and it's very well built and anchored but before I overhauled it there were many trailer like things about it. It survived sandy and I'm protected from woods when it comes N.E . Just can't imagine the power of a tornado.
The Massachusetts snow severity index is now 12,883.04, the product of the seasonal snow totals in Boston and Worcester. In 1995-96 it was 14,300 The southern New England snow severity index, the product of the snow totals of those cities and Providence RI and Hartford, CT is 60,856,775.52. In 1995-96 it was 174,785,384.9

The snow season so far and compared to 1995-1996

Boston 1995-96 107.6" 2014-15 110.3"
Hartford 1995-96 115.2" 2014-15 62.9"
Providence 1995-96 106.1" 2014-15 75.1"
Worcester 1995-96 132.9" 2014-15 116.8"

With a little luck the southern New England snow severity index will reach 70 million this weekend.
Cody, what was the ACE for Nathan?
Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:

Storms holding together approaching western FL now.




Well if they make it that's impressive, as forecast rain chances where only 10-20% chance of an isolated shower near the coast moving inland early, what little rain chance there was didn't even mention the possibility of the first area of rain coming off the gulf.
Storms are falling apart west of Tampa Bay. No more lightning, just a little bit way to the north. No surprise, it happens all the time.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
735 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FLZ043-270015-
SUMTER-
735 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SUMTER COUNTY...

AT 733 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR INVERNESS AIRPORT TO NEAR NORTH
BROOKSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILDWOOD...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...LAKE PANASOFFKEE...CENTER
HILL...WEBSTER...COLEMAN...TARRYTOWN...OXFORD...W AHOO...RUTLAND...
NOBLETON...ADAMSVILLE AND SUMTERVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
no warnings yet for Pinellas jedkins..solid overcast here windy no rain yet.
Quoting 101. luvtogolf:



The most impressive squall line I've ever seen on radar was with the Storm Of The Century in '93. If I remember correctly, it came ashore around midnight.


It was one of the most impressive squall line events in Florida on record, here is the radar loop below along with some facts about it's impacts to Florida:




From wiki, which based on other sites I've read for checking like NOAA, its correct:

"Besides producing record low barometric pressure across a swath of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and one of the nation's biggest snowstorms, the low produced a potent squall line ahead of its cold front. The squall line produced a serial derecho as it moved into Florida and Cuba shortly after midnight on March 13. Straight-line winds gusted above 100 mph (87 kn, 160 km/h) at many locations in Florida as the squall line moved through. The supercells in the derecho produced eleven tornadoes in the United States. One tornado killed three people when it struck a home which later collapsed, pinning the occupants under a fallen wall.[18] A substantial tree fall was seen statewide from this system.

A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida panhandle to north of Tampa Bay. Due to the angle of the coast relative to the approaching squall, Taylor County along the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and Hernando County north of Tampa were especially hard hit.[2]

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m); higher than many hurricanes. With little advance warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13 by the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[19] More people died from drowning in this storm than during Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Andrew combined.[3] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes.[20] A total of 47 lives were lost in Florida due to this storm.[2] In Florida this storm was and still is referred to as the "No Name Storm."

It was also terrible even in Cuba:

"In Cuba, wind gusts reached 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) in the Havana area. A survey conducted by a research team from the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba suggests that the maximum winds could have been as high as 130 miles per hour (210 km/h). It is the most damaging squall line ever recorded in Cuba.

There was widespread and significant damage in Cuba, with damages estimated as intense as F2.[6] The squall line finally moved out of Cuba near sunrise, leaving 10 deaths and US$1 billion in damage on the island."
Quoting 188. LargoFl:

no warnings yet for Pinellas jedkins..solid overcast here windy no rain yet.


Not expecting any, this activity wasn't even expect to reach you guys, all the upper level energy and heaviest convection is still well to the west.

Although getting this early weaker stuff should help to cool and stabilize the area, likely preventing any chance of stronger or isolated severe storm later on.
storms regenerating once they get inland a lil ways....................................
Quoting 185. luvtogolf:

Storms are falling apart west of Tampa Bay. No more lightning, just a little bit way to the north. No surprise, it happens all the time.


As I said in some other comments, these weren't even expected to come close to reaching the area, rain chance forecasts were only 10-20% in the Tampa Bay area for today and tonight. It's because it's far outrun it's lift and support, which is still well west. The best chance of more significant activity is still a while way.
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!
My tropical storm number is too low :/ Can you change it to 13 and 1 more for hurricanes no change to majors.
194. 882MB
Even though neither GFS or ECMWF redevelop Ex-TC Nathan, like I said earlier, he has moved back over water and has really blossomed. This is what the Australian BOM is saying:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan [1011hPa] is located over the Timor Sea, west southwest of Darwin. The low is expected to move west during the next few days, however it is unlikely that the system will restrengthen into a Tropical Cyclone.

But look at this satellite presentation-





INTERESTING!!
Quoting 174. BobHenson:



Thanks for the comment, 1900hurricane. The May 8, 2003, tornado was classified as an F4 based on damage northeast of Moore, but the most intense damage in Moore itself was apparently rated F3, per the online map at NWS/Norman. I've clarified the wording in the blog accordingly.

--Bob H.

No problem! Also, good catch with the specific locations of the damage ratings for the 5/8/03 case.
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!

Hey Max!
You can add me to the list.
My predictions are 9/6/2
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!

Hi Max, my numbers are 8-4-1.
Quoting 181. andycapt:

Incredible pics. GOD BLESS them all. Somewhat confused about whether they were in fact manufactured homes or trailers. Hurricane prone areas don't allow them anymore . I live in a manufactured home and it's very well built and anchored but before I overhauled it there were many trailer like things about it. It survived sandy and I'm protected from woods when it comes N.E . Just can't imagine the power of a tornado.

Trailers. If you click on the first embedded link of the blog post ("moved across a manufactured home park in Sand Springs"), there's really good aerial footage showing the damage in the mobile home park.

Regarding no trailers allowed in hurricane-prone areas - I don't think that's in place everywhere. Maybe others on the blog can shed some light on whether or not this is the case in their areas.
Quoting 192. Jedkins01:



As I said in some other comments, these weren't even expected to come close to reaching the area, rain chance forecasts were only 10-20% in the Tampa Bay area for today and tonight. It's because it's far outrun it's lift and support, which is still well west. The best chance of more significant activity is still a while way.


I know you did but others were saying that the line would hold together. There are some showers with a couple of thundershowers - very little lightning now.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Trailers. If you click on the first embedded link of the blog post ("moved across a manufactured home park in Sand Springs"), there's really good aerial footage showing the damage in the mobile home park.

Regarding no trailers allowed in hurricane-prone areas - I don't think that's in place everywhere. Maybe others on the blog can shed some light on whether or not this is the case in their areas.
Except for some city zoning law restrictions, there is no restriction against using mobile homes as a dwelling in Alabama. A bill was introduced in in the Alabama House in 2013 to mandate community shelters in mobile home parks with 25 or more spaces. It died in committee. Some MHP owners have installed shelters or safe rooms on their own initiative and they are being used as marketing tools by some of those parks. Middle income residents that can afford to pay the higher rent have increased occupancy in these parks but the vast majority of mobile home dwellers are either at or close to the poverty line. For many of them, even $10 more a month is something they can't afford. In addition, about half the mobile homes in Alabama are not in mobile home parks. They are installed singly or in small groups on private land with the mobile homes occupied by the property owner and relatives. There are no statistics that I know of that has tracked the installation of shelters or safe rooms with these private mobile home properties.
Quoting MaxWeather:


HURRICANE SCORECARD

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I can also make changes if you want

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About 2 months left to enter... please join!
Revised numbers 10/4/2.
Quoting 200. sar2401:

Except for some city zoning law restrictions, there is no restriction against using mobile homes as a dwelling in Alabama. A bill was introduced in in the Alabama House in 2013 to mandate community shelters in mobile home parks with 25 or more spaces. It died in committee. Some MHP owners have installed shelters or safe rooms on their own initiative and they are being used as marketing tools by some of those parks. Middle income residents that can afford to pay the higher rent have increased occupancy in these parks but the vast majority of mobile home dwellers are either at or close to the poverty line. For many of them, even $10 more a month is something they can't afford. In addition, about half the mobile homes in Alabama are not in mobile home parks. They are installed singly or in small groups on private land with the mobile homes occupied by the property owner and relatives. There are no statistics that I know of that has tracked the installation of shelters or safe rooms with these private mobile home properties.

Thanks for the info, sar. I bolded one of your sentences. This is important, I think, as some may not realize how many trailers are not in parks. I don't know the stats for Louisiana, but it's at least similar, if not an even higher percentage on independent/private lots.

I'm not aware of restrictions on use of mobile homes in Louisiana in parishes on or close to the GOM (the more 'hurricane-prone' areas. (Except, as you say, in local zoning ordinances).

Regarding shelters in LA, I have no clue...
Quoting 185. luvtogolf:

Storms are falling apart west of Tampa Bay. No more lightning, just a little bit way to the north. No surprise, it happens all the time.
I guess I'll be the conspiracy nut; On the Correlation Coefficient DualPolarity product, it looks like a lot of foreign matter went up into the front just as it began to fall apart. Weather modification at play?
Quoting 185. luvtogolf:

Storms are falling apart west of Tampa Bay. No more lightning, just a little bit way to the north. No surprise, it happens all the time.
Is the shelf water right off the coast cooler than the central Gulf of Mexico?

As it happens, yes. Fred Howard Park has a water temp of 69.8 degrees. Buoy 42099 well offshore has a water temp of 74.1 degrees.
Quoting Forsaken:
I guess I'll be the conspiracy nut; On the Correlation Coefficient DualPolarity product, it looks like a lot of foreign matter went up into the front just as it began to fall apart. Weather modification at play?
Do you have a link to the radar picture showing this? It would be a lot easier than all of us plowing through all the radar output from Tampa looking for this "foreign matter".
My apology blog is still open.
Heh ;)

Quoting Forsaken:
I guess I'll be the conspiracy nut; On the Correlation Coefficient DualPolarity product, it looks like a lot of foreign matter went up into the front just as it began to fall apart. Weather modification at play?


It's also called the Tampa shield but it is just supposed to prevent hurricanes.
210. txjac
Quoting 207. Andrebrooks:

My apology blog is still open.


Would you please quit apologizing? Or if you are going to apologize give us the details for what you are apologizing? You havent done anything as much as I can see, and I read the blog a lot.

Please, tell us about your weather ...tell us what you think about STS's el-nino predictions, tell is what you think about the up-coming hurricane season, lets talk weather.
Get over the apologizing thing

And seriously, I am a nice person ...not picking on you at all

And here I am telling you to talk about weather and me not telling you about mine ...
I was surprised to wake up to rain this morning ...not anything beyond like a heavy sprinkle ..but love my rain so I'll take it ...was nice to have weather in the 60's too ...pretty breezy
Quoting 207. Andrebrooks:

My apology blog is still open.



Txjac's right. You have nothing to apologize for, we can all assure that.
We have TD04W in WPAC that is forecast to be a strong typhoon that may threat the Phillippines.



I may post a new blog once the damage survey results from yesterday's tornadoes come in.
Any thoughts on yesterday's storms? It was pretty remarkable how quickly they developed on the dryline! Most of the power flashes in moore yesterday were actually due to straight-lime winds of 70-80 mph.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Thanks for the info, sar. I bolded one of your sentences. This is important, I think, as some may not realize how many trailers are not in parks. I don't know the stats for Louisiana, but it's at least similar, if not an even higher percentage on independent/private lots.

I'm not aware of restrictions on use of mobile homes in Louisiana in parishes on or close to the GOM (the more 'hurricane-prone' areas. (Except, as you say, in local zoning ordinances).

Regarding shelters in LA, I have no clue...
There's the usual stereotype of "trailer park trash" down here, which is true to some extent, but it's more complicated than that. There are some old, junky trailer parks here and there are some really nice ones. Ironically, the nicest are right on the coast, where they are most at risk from hurricanes. People want to live by the beach, and trailer parks offer a less expensive option than condos or private homes. Many of the so-called "mobile homes" that are placed in MHP's or on private property are actually manufactured homes. There's a myth about manufactured homes that they are more resistant to tornado damage than mobile homes. Unless they are placed on a continuous perimeter wall foundation and the bottom or sole plates are properly tied to the foundation, they are just as vulnerable to wind damage as most mobile homes. At least hurricanes usually have some lead time for evacuations. Tornadoes have none, or just minutes. The mobile home parks at the beach are also in tornado risk zones, and this applies to any mobile home in the state.

Just to put mobile home tornado risk in perspective, Alabama ranks fourth in the country in number of mobile homes as a percentage of all dwellings - 14.3%. You can find put how your state ranks here. The 2008 statistics are the newest available but there's no reason to think these percentages have changed significantly in the last five years. Alabama's population is about 4.8 million, and it's estimated that about 1.2 million of the state's residents live in mobile homes. The best guess I can find of the number of people who died in mobile homes since 1950 is about 300 out of a total death toll of 716. That means that about 0.00025% of those living in mobile homes died during a tornado. While it's terrible when even one person dies, we do have to keep these numbers in mind when we talk about ways to reduce mobile home deaths.
nino 1 and 2 is going under RI right now wish means it has really gone up and still it nino 1 and 2 is now up too 1.2 at the rate nino 1 and 2 is going we could hit 1.5 by friday or sonner


The story of my life in one picture. Nice little line of storms west of me. Line advances but is starting to look a little weak on the south end. Now the whole thing starts to break apart. In the last frames, the storms completely vanish. It's like there's a giant vacuum cleaner out there sucking up storms. Tampa may have a hurricane shield, but I have an equally effective thunderstorm shield.

Geez.....

Quoting 215. sar2401:

There's the usual stereotype of "trailer park trash" down here, which is true to some extent, but it's more complicated than that. There are some old, junky trailer parks here and there are some really nice ones. Ironically, the nicest are right on the coast, where they are most at risk from hurricanes. People want to live by the beach, and trailer parks offer a less expensive option than condos or private homes. Many of the so-called "mobile homes" that are placed in MHP's or on private property are actually manufactured homes. There's a myth about manufactured homes that they are more resistant to tornado damage than mobile homes. Unless they are placed on a continuous perimeter wall foundation and the bottom or sole plates are properly tied to the foundation, they are just as vulnerable to wind damage as most mobile homes. At least hurricanes usually have some lead time for evacuations. Tornadoes have none, or just minutes. The mobile home parks at the beach are also in tornado risk zones, and this applies to any mobile home in the state.

Just to put mobile home tornado risk in perspective, Alabama ranks fourth in the country in number of mobile homes as a percentage of all dwellings - 14.3%. You can find put how your state ranks here. The 2008 statistics are the newest available but there's no reason to think these percentages have changed significantly in the last five years. Alabama's population is about 4.8 million, and it's estimated that about 1.2 million of the state's residents live in mobile homes. The best guess I can find of the number of people who died in mobile homes since 1950 is about 300 out of a total death toll of 716. That means that about 0.00025% of those living in mobile homes died during a tornado. While it's terrible when even one person dies, we do have to keep these numbers in mind when we talk about ways to reduce mobile home deaths.

Interesting link - big differences between the states. And as a side note, I've seen some really pretty trailer homes on private lots. People buy/rent what they can afford. And I've known some retirees to move into mobile home parks (that are kept up really nicely) in order to reduce their cost of living.

Now, time for math review :P

14.3% of 4.8 million = 686,400 residents in mobile homes

300/686400 = 0.00044 = 0.044%
Big area of heavy rain and thunderstorms set to move across North Central FL tonight. Basically a line from Tampa to Cape Canaveral north looks set to get a decent rain.


Quoting 214. TimTheWxMan:

I may post a new blog once the damage survey results from yesterday's tornadoes come in.
Any thoughts on yesterday's storms? It was pretty remarkable how quickly they developed on the dryline! Most of the power flashes in moore yesterday were actually due to straight-lime winds of 70-80 mph.

Hmmm...my thoughts...watching the Tulsa newscast live online...thought the whole thing was incredibly ominous and frightening as it descended on that city. The power flashes occurred quite a bit there too, as seen on their tower cam. My other thoughts were on the helicopter pilot - how difficult is it for them to stay up w/ those winds?
Quoting 219. LAbonbon:


Interesting link - big differences between the states. And as a side note, I've seen some really pretty trailer homes on private lots. People buy/rent what they can afford. And I've known some retirees to move into mobile home parks (that are kept up really nicely) in order to reduce their cost of living.

Now, time for math review :P

14.3% of 4.8 million = 686,400 residents in mobile homes

300/686400 = 0.00044 = 0.044%


Alabama ranks fourth in the country in number of mobile homes as a percentage of all dwellings - 14.3% represents the number of dwellings and not the number of residents.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Big area of heavy rain and thunderstorms set to move across North Central FL tonight. Basically a line from Tampa to Cape Canaveral north looks set to get a decent rain.





see post 216
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
I may post a new blog once the damage survey results from yesterday's tornadoes come in.
Any thoughts on yesterday's storms? It was pretty remarkable how quickly they developed on the dryline! Most of the power flashes in moore yesterday were actually due to straight-lime winds of 70-80 mph.
The storms developed slightly better later than forecast but there was dry air impinging on development. Once the warm side of the air mass came in contact with the front the development was very fast. This is pretty typical on the Plains and it lulls some people into a false sense of security. You can go from clear blue skies to a howling storm in a half - hour. Straight line winds seemed to do most of the damage that's been reported. The power flashes outside tornado paths were quite striking in both OKC and Tulsa. It takes some strong winds to cause the kind of arcing we saw. I'm most disappointed that the tornado in Moore was not warned before it touched down. I really expect the NWS to be more on top of tornadoes that are developing but especially for Moore, given its history. The tornado wasn't large and there haven't been any fatalities or serious injuries I've heard of. That's the good thing, but I'd really like to hear the reasons why this tornado didn't get a timely warning.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Interesting link - big differences between the states. And as a side note, I've seen some really pretty trailer homes on private lots. People buy/rent what they can afford. And I've known some retirees to move into mobile home parks (that are kept up really nicely) in order to reduce their cost of living.

Now, time for math review :P

14.3% of 4.8 million = 686,400 residents in mobile homes

300/686400 = 0.00044 = 0.044%
The number of residents at risk in mobile homes is different than the number of mobile homes. 300/1,200,00 = .00025...well, rats, I did miss the conversion, so it should be 0.025%. One of these days I'll get this right.
Quoting 225. sar2401:

The number or residents at risk in mobile homes is different than the number of mobile homes. 300/1,200,00 = .00025...well, rats, I did miss the conversion, so it should be 0.025%. One of these days I'll get this right.

Sar, double check your first calc. 1.2 million seemed too high. I got 686,400.

And that decimal/percentage error is really common - we've all done it!
Quoting 222. AreadersinceWilma:



Alabama ranks fourth in the country in number of mobile homes as a percentage of all dwellings - 14.3% represents the number of dwellings and not the number of residents.

Yeah, agree, but without knowing the percentage of residents in mobile/trailer homes, it's the closest approximation to work with.
Quoting 224. sar2401:

The storms developed slightly better later than forecast but there was dry air impinging on development. One the warm side of the air mass came in contact with the front the development was very fast. This is pretty typical on the Plains and it lulls some people into a false sense of security. You can go from clear blue skies to a howling storm in a half - hour. Straight line winds seemed to do most of the damage that's been reported. The power flashes outside tornado paths were quite striking in both OKC and Tulsa. It takes some strong winds to cause the kind of arcing we saw. I'm most disappointed that the tornado in Moore was not warned before it touched down. I really expect the NWS to be more on top of tornadoes that are developing but especially for Moore, given its history. The tornado wasn't large and there haven't been any fatalities or serious injuries I've heard of. That's the good thing, but I'd really like to hear the reasons why this tornado didn't get a timely warning.



That's what happened in El Reno. The cap kept storms from firing west of oklahoma city until about 4:30 and with the extreme instability in place, the storms had 50k ft. tops within minutes once the cap broke. The fact that they didn't fire until the afternoon probably caught people off-guard. With the 2013 moore tornado, storms started firing in the early afternoon. Complacency is the last thing you want in Tornado Alley.
Quoting 221. LAbonbon:


Hmmm...my thoughts...watching the Tulsa newscast live online...thought the whole thing was incredibly ominous and frightening as it descended on that city. The power flashes occurred quite a bit there too, as seen on their tower cam. My other thoughts were on the helicopter pilot - how difficult is it for them to stay up w/ those winds?



Those pilots have to be really skilled and maintain a safe distance from the tornado. KFOR is the best at chopper footage of tornadoes as they did an outstanding job with the Cherokee tornadoes (2012), both the may 3rd and may 20th moore tornadoes and the el reno tornado (at least the wall cloud with the last one because there was no seeing that twister with it being so rain-wrapped).
Well, I'm headed off to bed. Wind here has been gusty all afternoon, and I'm still hearing it now. Hopefully it quiets down so it won't wake me.

Good night, all.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Sar, double check your first calc. 1.2 million seemed too high. I got 686,400.

And that decimal/percentage error is really common - we've all done it!
No, there are about 686,000 mobile homes in Alabama. The census estimate was the average family size is 1.81 persons. 1.81 x 686,000 = 1,241,660 residents at risk. I rounded it down to 2 million since I have enough trouble with whole numbers. :-)
Everyone in Florida waiting for the severe storms to hit can rest easy. This from the SPC -

NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE...FUELED BY A MOIST -- AND IN SOME AREAS WEAKLY BUOYANT --
WARM SECTOR. WITH THAT SAID...A DIURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN ALREADY MEAGER
CAPE...SUCH THAT ANY LINGERING/LOW-END SEVERE RISK SHOULD FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL REMOVE ALL SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITY AREAS THIS FORECAST.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Those pilots have to be really skilled and maintain a safe distance from the tornado. KFOR is the best at chopper footage of tornadoes as they did an outstanding job with the Cherokee tornadoes (2012), both the may 3rd and may 20th moore tornadoes and the el reno tornado (at least the wall cloud with the last one because there was no seeing that twister with it being so rain-wrapped).
My impression is that Oklahoma tornadoes usually have good visibility and aren't rain wrapped. Assuming that's true, all the videos I've seen from yesterday showed mostly rain wrapped funnels with an occasional clear view. Some of the Channel 6 spotters were getting confused by this, calling what I saw as either rain or hail shafts as funnel clouds. There was at least one occasion where the spotter was describing a wall cloud when it clearly looked like a shelf cloud to me. You could tell by the tension in their voices that they were expecting the worse. Thank goodness that didn't happen.
Okay, we have had AT MOST 0.05" of rain in the past 3 days from these these pathetic showers here. Is any of that moderate, steady rain going to hold together as it moves across the Central FL Peninsula (never mind thunderstorms, I just want rain)? Where is all this 2-4" talk from earlier this week?
Quoting 218. sar2401:

The story of my life in one picture. Nice little line of storms west of me. Line advances but is starting to look a little weak on the south end. Now the whole thing starts to break apart. In the last frames, the storms completely vanish. It's like there's a giant vacuum cleaner out there sucking up storms. Tampa may have a hurricane shield, but I have an equally effective thunderstorm shield.

Geez.....



Haha Sar wanna hear the story of my weather life? I live in Daytona Beach but I'm in Clearwater fl for spring break. Before I left Daytona, I hadn't seen a drop of rain in 3 weeks. Now for the last 5 days I've been in Pinellas county, I've barely seen a sprinkle here while Daytona has had at least 3 or 4 storms that have dropped at least 2 inches total -_-
Quoting 233. sar2401:

My impression is that Oklahoma tornadoes usually have good visibility and aren't rain wrapped. Assuming that's true, all the videos I've seen from yesterday showed mostly rain wrapped funnels with an occasional clear view. Some of the Channel 6 spotters were getting confused by this, calling what I saw as either rain or hail shafts as funnel clouds. There was at least one occasion where the spotter was describing a wall cloud when it clearly looked like a shelf cloud to me. You could tell by the tension in their voices that they were expecting the worse. Thank goodness that didn't happen.



Not all of them are clearly visible. With the el reno twister there were weak mid-level winds so HP supercells formed. Given the instability, lots of moisture (dewpoints were as high as the mid 70s) and the stalled front, the storms kept training all night until the front finally moved southeast out of the area.
Quoting 231. sar2401:

No, there are about 686,000 mobile homes in Alabama. The census estimate was the average family size is 1.81 persons. 1.81 x 686,000 = 1,241,660 residents at risk. I rounded it down to 2 million since I have enough trouble with whole numbers. :-)


How many have unique DNA though?
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
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Here's what I'm currently thinking based on the multi-year El Nino, +PDO, -AMO analogs (minus those that flipped to La Nina in the same year). (You can put me down for: NS: 7, H: 4, MHs: 2) Biggest differences, IMO appear to be +ENSO persistence, cold AMO, & potential for +IOD development shutting down the eastern, deep tropical Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico, which is liable to be more active this season, although that's a misnomer given it was virtually dead last year aside from TS Dolly in the Bay of Campeche. As in the 2015 hurricane analog TC tracks....


...I would also anticipate, based on the aforementioned conditions & persistence, the highest concentration of ACE & TCs to once again be in the subtropical Atlantic, east of the Carolinas & in the vicinity of Bermuda...




At the advice of Eric Blake, I subsequently decided to throw in last year & why not, especially after this kind of interannual winter pattern persistence? The only discrepancy between the last 2 winters lies in this year's record +PDO shoving the entire downstream longwave pattern ~30 degrees eastward or so w/ an attendant/slight poleward shift in the North Atlantic's anomalous height field..



I also at one point considered throwing in the extreme +PDO winter analogs, however, vast differences in the AMO would likely skew the numbers (esp, in the deep tropics) too high from what's most likely to transpire, assuming we don't observe a sudden/dramatic alteration to the Atlantic SST configuration &/or AMO between now & the start of the hurricane season.
On the other hand, I think it's worth mentioning how tempting the combined dataset was (which included 1904-05, 1905-06, 1911-12, 1913-14, 1929-30, 1935-36, 1939-40, 1940-41, 1958-59, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1990-91, 1993-94, 2002-03, 2013-14 (w/ double weights applied to 1994 & 2014 w/ their outstanding modulation of the highly amplified N hem winter pattern & the ferocity, amplitude, and extent of the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex... and 1940 & 1941, because for the duration of the winter, the 1939-42 multi-year El Nino series provided the only consistent & legitimate competition to our record +PDO regime...)

Here are just the post 1950 years w/ further stratification to show the robust correspondence to 1993-94 & 2013-14. Not bad...


Monthly NDJFM standardized anomalies of those analogs vs this year. This is certainly one of the best sets of years I've experimented with to date, and the only complaint I would have is the timing regarding the extreme bout of cold east of the Rockies, but it's nice to see this was effectively captured, even though it was a month ahead of schedule...


These analogs caught the overall (NDJF) temperature distribution exceedingly well, & in retrospect, I couldn't be more pleased with this backtesting...



239. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado statre Edu though colours not their product.
AniGif:: image host

Whatever there is for this EARLY AM for Fort Myers? ~0545-0700UTC ??? Mar 27th 2015. Don't look at just green/cyan only but their outflow too, even around the oranges. If the outflow stays closer to the colours a better opportunity for nature to tap into a higher stack of energy. See outflow heading south in GoMx that area has used up its stacked outflow but formations heading eastward have not sent out their outflow AND fresh moisture is flowing from the keys N/NW so it might be allowed to enter into the areas that have not outflowed their stacked clouds, lets see what forms.

If yer not sure what i said ask sar2401...he knows **as vis0 slides a 20 under the "table" of contents**

On the ml-d side the cooler air NOW might reach further southward as the ml-d in its center most AOI is raising to its +66% influence therefore attracting whichever jetstream energy is more potent (looks like that Canadian front is) This cooler air can head further southward till the inner most ml-d AOI begins its rise from 66% strength to 99% which begins Sun29/Mon30/Tue31 and therefore at that point will begin to push/pull that cooler air towards zip 10016, therefore putting the breaks on it from heading further south. Still,  sar2401 be ready to treadmill your plants back in, watch the cooler AIR & clash of fronts.
240. Hugo5
Good to see that what I was talking about with TD 4 and ex nath came true, as I expected. both systems had a closed LLC with good outflow and decent conditions for becoming tropical systems. Nat has weakened some over the last 24 hours though its convection looks better, it's LLC is becoming more dispersed and the wind speeds are slowing. conditions are still good that it could become a cyclone again, but not any time soon. TD4 is the next storm to watch as it will be interacting with the tail end of a convergence zone that will help strengthen it. It will be interesting to watch because it has the potential to become a strong storm, though I don't think it will be anything over cat3, but anything is possible in the pacific with all the warm water, and good conditions.

I'd expect them to start watching the system to the east of Fiji for it developing into a system in the next 48-72 hours, it has a closed llc with decent winds, and good convection. Lastly the system in the middle of the indi ocean has a chance of development, it has good convection and an almost closed llc. winds are beind helped out of the east due to a large high pressure system to its south, but its still fighting with other low pressures systems in the area to close itself off.

Thanks and see you soon.
Hey for central Floridians, don't go to bed thinking it's already over, this activity like the earlier activity was expected to weaken, the best setup model guidance agrees will occur tomorrow with the best chance of heavy rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms possible. Here's what Ruskin has to say about it:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 270157 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORELEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND FRONT...BUT
COULD SIGNIFICATLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS
ACROSS OUR SRN HALF. GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT
FEEL THE SECOND SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS
AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.
So far, 0.47" for me. Local mets and the NWS are saying our next best chance for rain is early afternoon, with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. The timing of the rain associated with this cold front has really thrown local mets for a loop.
Good morning.

Webber,that post #238 was fantastic analysis of the upcoming North Atlantic season. You are a member at S2K so don't hesitate to post there all your knowledge.
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!


I'm on there twice :)
Quoting 245. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

Webber,that post #238 was fantastic analysis of the upcoming North Atlantic season. You are a member at S2K so don't hesitate to post there all your knowledge.


Eric definitely knows more about ENSO than I do.

I'd like to see how we do in a head to head hurricane forecasting competition. ;)
Quoting 237. Dakster:



How many have unique DNA though?


I am quickly learning how dangerous it is to drink coffee early in the morning and read Dak's posts.

*Goes to get a roll of paper towels*
Flooding is being reported in low lying areas.Not surprised considering the creeks and river are swollen.We need sunny and dry for at least a week.
Quoting MaxWeather:


HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!


Good Morning guys... put me down with: 8/7/1.
Good analysis Webber.I think the gulf will be closed like last year.
Fort Myers picked up .24" this morning. All I got was one clap of thunder and no rain. Well, it did sprinkle for a few minutes, but not enough precipitation to register in my weather station.

Hopefully round two later today will hit my house.
Good Morning.
Incredible flooding in Peru and Chile this week.
Some of the driest areas on Earth are inundated.
Heavy snowfalls in the mountains, except that the weather was too warm, and the snow fell as rain......

Video at BBC website.
Quoting 244. tampabaymatt:

So far, 0.47" for me. Local mets and the NWS are saying our next best chance for rain is early afternoon, with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. The timing of the rain associated with this cold front has really thrown local mets for a loop.


Concerned about this afternoon as i didn't expect that skies would be this clear this morning and as a result the WRF is going Banana's with what looks like severe weather across C FL early this afternoon. Just the look at some of the storms that rolled thru my area yesterday with all the tree damage in areas and to think the dynamics are going to be much stronger today with more heating it appears.

Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:



Concerned about this afternoon as i didn't expect that skies would be this clear this morning and as a result the WRF is going Banana's with what looks like severe weather across C FL early this afternoon. Just the look at some of the storms that rolled thru my area yesterday with all the tree damage in areas and to think the dynamics are going to be much stronger today with more heating it appears.




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE TROUGH TO PREVAIL OVER THE W WHILE A TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW FIELD...A FAST-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW AND WEAKEN THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER
SCALE RIDGE. IN THE EAST...CYCLONIC SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST
TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SWWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS/GA/THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF INITIALLY WILL MAKE STEADY SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SERN STATES...CLEARING S FL TOWARD THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...HINDERING TO SOME DEGREE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...BENEATH STRENGTHENING
SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH VEERED BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- THUS LIMITING RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...A
FEW STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY TO COVER
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER GUST OR TWO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 mph winds for southeastern Palm Beach County until 900 am
EDT...

* at 809 am EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Kings Point... or near Delray Beach... moving northeast at 25
mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds to 45 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Boca Raton... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach and
Lake Worth.
Quoting 253. pottery:

Good Morning.
Incredible flooding in Peru and Chile this week.
Some of the driest areas on Earth are inundated.
Heavy snowfalls in the mountains, except that the weather was too warm, and the snow fell as rain......

Video at BBC website.


Not surprised all the signs are there now that we are heading for a Strong El-Nino this Summer and it appears these chances are going up every day. ESPI is already nearing moderate El-Nino levels with a impressive 0.76 up from -.84 in early February the 30 day SOI is at -10, PDO has been at record levels for months now, and finally this mammoth Sub Surface warm pool which now surfacing across Nino 1&2 which drastic up tick in sea surface anomalies just off Peru & Chile.




This image below is just ridiculous. Very strong El-Nino being depicted on many models now not just the CFSv2 & Euro anymore.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Concerned about this afternoon as i didn't expect that skies would be this clear this morning and as a result the WRF is going Banana's with what looks like severe weather across C FL early this afternoon. Just the look at some of the storms that rolled thru my area yesterday with all the tree damage in areas and to think the dynamics are going to be much stronger today with more heating it appears.



You should have called in all the damage in your area to the SPC (NWS).

Because the only wind damage reported yesterday in the state was in St. Lucie.
even though all floridians think theyve been through the worst of it jeanne charlie francis wilma something will be coming way worse. not sure when . c.v. season no doubt. good luck
Thanks for this great analysis. We'll see if the anomalous troughs show up similar to 2014. I'm actually very wary of this potential set up.

Quoting 238. Webberweather53:



Here's what I'm currently thinking based on the multi-year El Nino, +PDO, -AMO analogs (minus those that flipped to La Nina in the same year). (You can put me down for: NS: 7, H: 4, MHs: 2) Biggest differences, IMO appear to be +ENSO persistence, cold AMO, & potential for +IOD development shutting down the eastern, deep tropical Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico, which is liable to be more active this season, although that's a misnomer given it was virtually dead last year aside from TS Dolly in the Bay of Campeche. As in the 2015 hurricane analog TC tracks....


...I would also anticipate, based on the aforementioned conditions & persistence, the highest concentration of ACE & TCs to once again be in the subtropical Atlantic, east of the Carolinas & in the vicinity of Bermuda...




At the advice of Eric Blake, I subsequently decided to throw in last year & why not, especially after this kind of interannual winter pattern persistence? The only discrepancy between the last 2 winters lies in this year's record +PDO shoving the entire downstream longwave pattern ~30 degrees eastward or so w/ an attendant/slight poleward shift in the North Atlantic's anomalous height field..



I also at one point considered throwing in the extreme +PDO winter analogs, however, vast differences in the AMO would likely skew the numbers (esp, in the deep tropics) too high from what's most likely to transpire, assuming we don't observe a sudden/dramatic alteration to the Atlantic SST configuration &/or AMO between now & the start of the hurricane season.
On the other hand, I think it's worth mentioning how tempting the combined dataset was (which included 1904-05, 1905-06, 1911-12, 1913-14, 1929-30, 1935-36, 1939-40, 1940-41, 1958-59, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1990-91, 1993-94, 2002-03, 2013-14 (w/ double weights applied to 1994 & 2014 w/ their outstanding modulation of the highly amplified N hem winter pattern & the ferocity, amplitude, and extent of the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex... and 1940 & 1941, because for the duration of the winter, the 1939-42 multi-year El Nino series provided the only consistent & legitimate competition to our record +PDO regime...)

Here are just the post 1950 years w/ further stratification to show the robust correspondence to 1993-94 & 2013-14. Not bad...


Monthly NDJFM standardized anomalies of those analogs vs this year. This is certainly one of the best sets of years I've experimented with to date, and the only complaint I would have is the timing regarding the extreme bout of cold east of the Rockies, but it's nice to see this was effectively captured, even though it was a month ahead of schedule...


These analogs caught the overall (NDJF) temperature distribution exceedingly well, & in retrospect, I couldn't be more pleased with this backtesting...




HRRR is showing more of a big huge area of rain and thunderstorms covering a large part of the state later today.
If I don't get some decent rain out of this, I don't know what to say.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Concerned about this afternoon as i didn't expect that skies would be this clear this morning and as a result the WRF is going Banana's with what looks like severe weather across C FL early this afternoon. Just the look at some of the storms that rolled thru my area yesterday with all the tree damage in areas and to think the dynamics are going to be much stronger today with more heating it appears.



Scott, did the NWS report all the wind damage in your area? I can't find it. Thx
Quoting 253. pottery:

Good Morning.
Incredible flooding in Peru and Chile this week.
Some of the driest areas on Earth are inundated.
Heavy snowfalls in the mountains, except that the weather was too warm, and the snow fell as rain......

Video at BBC website.
Greetings Pott..El Nino is making his appearance. Warm water showing up along the the coast. I am wondering what to expect with the atmospheric coupling and the strange jet patterns. N.W.South America can always count on heavy rain when the when Nino has come.. MDR should be quiet this year, do believe the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will have tropical activity. All systems close to home will have to be monitored.
Quoting 258. Sfloridacat5:



You should have called in all the damage in your area to the SPC (NWS).

Because the only wind damage reported yesterday in the state was in St. Lucie.


No structural damage but tree damage with branches down some large which seems consistent with 50mph wind gust as Sanford Airport just to my East had a 49mph wind gust with .91" of rain. Pretty strong storm rolled thur here.
Quoting 259. islander101010:

even though all floridians think theyve been through the worst of it jeanne charlie francis wilma something will be coming way worse. not sure when . c.v. season no doubt. good luck


Thanks for the informative comment.
In my ongoing series about unusual desert weather, here another episode. A heavy rain event happened in the Atacama, Report in the Guardian and a video of the moment the floods reached the town of Chañaral:



That looks severe:



The rain event in the Sahara accumulated 47 mm or 1,7 inches in March over 5 days in Tamanrasset. Link to the monthly weather data for Tamanrasset.
Quoting 263. hydrus:

Greetings Pott..El Nino is making his appearance. Warm water showing up along the the coast. I am wondering what to expect with the atmospheric coupling and the strange jet patterns. N.W.South America can always count on heavy rain when the when Nino has come.. MDR should be quiet this year, do believe the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will have tropical activity. All systems close to home will have to be monitored.


Those saying El-Nino wouldn't come and not be strong are not liking what is happening right now. The ESPI alone has risen tremendously over the last several weeks. So not only is the atmosphere in an El-Nino state but a strengthening one as well.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.76
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice · 2h 2 hours ago
Atmospheric CC Kelvin wave passage o/the West Pac next week could support a period of enhanced tropical cyclogenesis
Quoting 265. tampabaymatt:



Thanks for the informative comment.
DOOM!, Matt, DOOM! We might as well buy our plots now.
Quoting 263. hydrus:

Greetings Pott..El Nino is making his appearance. Warm water showing up along the the coast. I am wondering what to expect with the atmospheric coupling and the strange jet patterns. N.W.South America can always count on heavy rain when the when Nino has come.. MDR should be quiet this year, do believe the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will have tropical activity. All systems close to home will have to be monitored.

Yes, true.
In the meantime we are having a very wet March. Most unusual, but most welcomed !
Not sure what to expect, come June and beyond.....
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!


Put me down for 28/27/27 please
Quoting 270. pottery:


Yes, true.
In the meantime we are having a very wet March. Most unusual, but most welcomed !
Not sure what to expect, come June and beyond.....


Anytime you see Peru & Chile this wet which is normally extremely dry then you know El-Nino is officially here.
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!
I'm going with 10-5-2. Thanks for doing this, Max.
Quoting 266. ChrisHamburg:

In my ongoing series about unusual desert weather, here another episode. A heavy rain event happened in the Atacama, Report in the Guardian and a video of the moment the floods reached the town of Chañaral:



That looks severe:



The rain event in the Sahara accumulated 47 mm or 1,7 inches in March over 5 days in Tamanrasset. Link to the monthly weather data for Tamanrasset.


Incredible video there, thanks .
Here is my prediction for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

9 - Total Named Storms
6 - Hurricanes
2 - Major Hurricanes

NOTE: The MDR of the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean will possibly experience less activity in 2015, while the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic might experience more activity, than recent years. Not sure about the Caribbean Sea, it depends on how strong the El Nino conditions are later in the season.

Many hurricanes have made landfall along the US Gulf Coast, during El Nino years. So don't let your guard down!

Some interesting hurricane trivia (or bad luck?), the years ending in a "5" have featured many powerful landfalling hurricanes along the U. S. Gulf Coast. Some of those years are: 2005, 1995, 1985, 1975, 1965.

Quoting 180. MaxWeather:



HURRICANE SCORECARD

62 predictions listed as of today... anyone else ready?
I can also make changes if you want

I plan to make the 5th update this upcoming Sunday, March 29.
About 2 months left to enter... please join!


Don't forget about Hurricane Erin 8-2-95. Hit the east coast of Florida near Vero Beach.
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Here is my prediction for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

9 - Total Named Storms
6 - Hurricanes
2 - Major Hurricanes

NOTE: The MDR of the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean will possibly experience less activity in 2015, while the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic might experience more activity, than recent years. Not sure about the Caribbean Sea, it depends on how strong the El Nino conditions are later in the season.

Many hurricanes have made landfall along the US Gulf Coast, during El Nino years. So don't let your guard down!

Some interesting hurricane trivia (or bad luck?), the years ending in a "5" have featured landfalling hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. Some of those years are: 2005, 1995, 1985, 1975, 1965.



Lots of lightning out in the Central Gulf heading for the West Coast of FL rapidly. Full sunshine here this morning will heat the atmosphere up a lot this morning so temps should quickly rise into the 80's between now and 11am.

Link
Yes, it did! Erin was a powerful CAT2 hurricane when it made its 2nd landfall along the Gulf Coast of NW Florida.

Erin was a double-hit hurricane, making 2 landfalls.

And then came CAT3 Hurricane Opal, just 2 months later, making a landfall in the same Gulf Coast region!

Quoting 276. hurricanewatcher61:

Don't forget about Hurricane Erin 8-2-95. Hit the east coast of Florida near Vero Beach.
Quoting 267. StormTrackerScott:



Those saying El-Nino wouldn't come and not be strong are not liking what is happening right now. The ESPI alone has risen tremendously over the last several weeks. So not only is the atmosphere in an El-Nino state but a strengthening one as well.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.76

Throw in one or two strong MJO pulses, and we may have a significant event.
Quoting 251. washingtonian115:

Good analysis Webber.I think the gulf will be closed like last year.


Stop. Now.
Hello you guys, I wonder what the rest of this severe weather season will bring.
Hard freeze warning for TN...

Quoting 283. hydrus:

Hard freeze warning for TN...


In March? Nah lol. ;)
Still looks centered in the Mid Pacific, but that should change..

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Lots of lightning out in the Central Gulf heading for the West Coast of FL rapidly. Full sunshine here this morning will heat the atmosphere up a lot this morning so temps should quickly rise into the 80's between now and 11am.

Link


Maybe today Scott. Yesterday you said that line of storms would hold together and hit the west coast and they flamed out.
Quoting 285. hydrus:

Still looks centered in the Mid Pacific, but that should change..


How could that be centered right on the equator? Strange?
Looks like a freeze here Sunday morning. Not unheard of, but I will lose some peaches :-( Beautiful blossoms this year. Hopefully not all - I usually have to thin them out anyway. Apples have not blossomed.

Waiting until Sunday afternoon to plant the garden (cantaloupes, bell pepper, cherry tomatoes, sweet potatoes, beets, basil). This should be the last freeze for Florence, SC (fingers crossed).

Quoting 283. hydrus:

Hard freeze warning for TN...


Quoting 286. jrweatherman:



Maybe today Scott. Yesterday you said that line of storms would hold together and hit the west coast and they flamed out.


No, I never said they would together I said it MAY hold together hence the SPC upgrading the area to a marginal category. If you are going to Troll my post everyday then I suggest you do a better job as you make yourself look foolish. No where in this post or any other did I say the Line will hold together.

120. StormTrackerScott
8:31 PM GMT on March 26, 2015

0
This just updated. C FL added into the marginal category for this evening. Line in the Gulf may hold together as it comes ashore just north of Tampa.
Quoting 288. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like a freeze here Sunday morning. Not unheard of, but I will lose some peaches :-( Beautiful blossoms this year. Hopefully not all - I usually have to thin them out anyway. Apples have not blossomed.

Waiting until Sunday afternoon to plant the garden (cantaloupes, bell pepper, cherry tomatoes, sweet potatoes, beets, basil). This should be the last freeze for Florence, SC (fingers crossed).


This is not good for folks here. Everything is in bloom but the apple trees and some of the oaks. ( older oaks seem to start later ) These will likely not be the last frosty nights we have with the current pattern.



A slight chance of rain is in the forecast for Middle Tennessee today as moisture lingers across the area. Strong upper midwest surface high pressure influences will build across the region tonight into this weekend, resulting in freezing temperatures across the mid state Saturday and Sunday mornings with high temperatures several degrees below seasonal normal values. A warmer and more seasonal weather pattern will begin to work into the area as next work week progresses, with the best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday.
Quoting 288. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like a freeze here Sunday morning. Not unheard of, but I will lose some peaches :-( Beautiful blossoms this year. Hopefully not all - I usually have to thin them out anyway. Apples have not blossomed.

Waiting until Sunday afternoon to plant the garden (cantaloupes, bell pepper, cherry tomatoes, sweet potatoes, beets, basil). This should be the last freeze for Florence, SC (fingers crossed).




Lows in the upper 40's here in Orlando Saturday Night highs between 68 to 70. GFS had this forecast for us for a week now. Only difference is the Freeze line which the GFS had into the FL Panhandle but instead directs the coldest air now more toward the Carolina's.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Lows in the upper 40's here in Orlando Saturday Night highs between 68 to 70. GFS had this forecast for us for a week now. Only difference is the Freeze line which the GFS had into the FL Panhandle but instead directs the coldest air now more toward the Carolina's.



i noted why checking the GFS for are weather the GFS has a vary wet set up for FL has we head in too early APR

Woooo, that looks like a hard freeze. Lows here forecasted around 30F Sunday morning, but it could bust to the cold side.

Quoting 290. hydrus:

This is not good for folks here. Everything is in bloom but the apple trees and some of the oaks. ( older oaks seem to start later ) These will likely not be the last frosty nights we have with the current pattern.



A slight chance of rain is in the forecast for Middle Tennessee today as moisture lingers across the area. Strong upper midwest surface high pressure influences will build across the region tonight into this weekend, resulting in freezing temperatures across the mid state Saturday and Sunday mornings with high temperatures several degrees below seasonal normal values. A warmer and more seasonal weather pattern will begin to work into the area as next work week progresses, with the best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday.

Quoting 287. Andrebrooks:

How could that be centered right on the equator? Strange?
No..El Nino is normally situated over or just north of the equator.

Quoting Tazmanian:



i noted why checking the GFS for are weather the GFS has a vary wet set up for FL has we head in too early APR

Taz pleas check your mail.
GFS pinches off what appears to be some type of subtropical storm near the Azores in the long range. If it cuts off from the main Jet Stream flow there may be a brief period for development.




Quoting 264. StormTrackerScott:



No structural damage but tree damage with branches down some large which seems consistent with 50mph wind gust as Sanford Airport just to my East had a 49mph wind gust with .91" of rain. Pretty strong storm rolled thur here.


I know in the Apopka/Wekiva area last night we had several gusts that were pretty strong.
Quoting 286. jrweatherman:



Maybe today Scott. Yesterday you said that line of storms would hold together and hit the west coast and they flamed out.
Squalls moving in from the gulf during the day almost always weaken while approaching the coast. When coming in at night, they tend to strengthen most of the time. There are exceptions . In April of 1981 , I was watching a squall line the length and width of the Florida Peninsula, tuned in to the all night color radar on T.V. ( a new thing back then ) just after 11:30 P.M., at 1:00 A.M. all hell broke loose when winds sustained at 50 kts were screaming through the rigging of 60 large sailboats. Seas in the pass kicked up to about 6 to 7 feet, causing the masts to cross and become entangled, sinking some of them, and one completely destroyed. A brave attempt by the captain of a 60 foot vagabond yacht to loose his rigging from a neighboring sailboat ended terribly when he actually hoisted his main to free the masts, the the squall hit full force, literally ripping the sail to shreds. The Vagabond survived the storm, the other sank in its slip..Sad night for many sailors on the Florida West Coast.
Quoting 287. Andrebrooks:

How could that be centered right on the equator? Strange?



It's not, though Typhoon Vamei (2001) formed 85 miles north of the equator. Its outer rainbands were actually south of the equator. It's strange to see storms form that close to the equator due to the weak coriolis effect.
Yes, I could see colder temps Sunday morning than forecasted for my neck of the woods. Wouldn't surprise me to see the 20's in some of the cooler spots.

Quoting 291. StormTrackerScott:



Lows in the upper 40's here in Orlando Saturday Night highs between 68 to 70. GFS had this forecast for us for a week now. Only difference is the Freeze line which the GFS had into the FL Panhandle but instead directs the coldest air now more toward the Carolina's.
For the Only in Oklahoma archives...

Spotted on the garage door of a Moore, OK home with comparatively little storm damage, a spray-painted message: "You hit like a girl."

Quoting 299. TimTheWxMan:




It's not, though Typhoon Vamei (2001) formed 85 miles north of the equator. Its outer rainbands were actually south of the equator. It's strange to see storms form that close to the equator due to the weak coriolis effect.
Crap..I thought he meant the El Nino being centered near the equator, not the storm...
Quoting 301. Barefootontherocks:

For the Only in Oklahoma archives...

Spotted on the garage door of a Moore, OK home with comparatively little storm damage, a spray-painted message: "You hit like a girl."


I,ve seen girls punch holes in doors and bench over 350
Quoting 301. Barefootontherocks:

For the Only in Oklahoma archives...

Spotted on the garage door of a Moore, OK home with comparatively little storm damage, a spray-painted message: "You hit like a girl."



Wonder if those people were spray-painting the same thing two years ago.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
For the Only in Oklahoma archives...

Spotted on the garage door of a Moore, OK home with comparatively little storm damage, a spray-painted message: "You hit like a girl."

So sexism is alive and well in Oklahoma. Who would've thought?
Quoting 306. Neapolitan:

So sexism is alive and well in Oklahoma. Who would've thought?
One might think after being hit repeatedly not to tempt fate. I myself would be thankful.
You've met my ex...? We need to talk.

Quoting 303. hydrus:

I,ve seen girls punch holes in doors and bench over 350
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wonder if those people were spray-painting the same thing two years ago.

To me, the message is a resident's resilience and humor in face of adversity, and also a poignant message from Moore to nature. A twist on the old "You throw like a girl" truth. Some of the homes hit by the (relatively) "weenie" storm Wednesday had just recently finished rebuilding from 2013. This storm indeed "threw/hit like a girl" compared to 2013 and others Moore has experienced.
Neo,
"Sexism," like the whole laundry list of "politically incorrect" ways to be, is a matter of perception and reaction. I am of the generation and gender that spawned women's lib and role reversal and all that stuff in the 1970s. Just the same, my favorite and original line from those days... "Nothing wrong with a man who's sexist. At least he knows the difference between male and female."

I don't understand your obsession with my comment(s) and I don't understand why the mods (wunderground blog moderators) don't remove your obvious off-topic comments that have nothing to do with the reality on this blog or reality in Oklahoma. I have flagged both your comments, and I am now putting you back on ignore.
The government should do something for the safety of mobile home residents through proper mitigation policy and evacuation before the disaster with the help of weather forecast for such destructive events or provide them a safe place to live without fear where history of tornado is so dreadful.