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White House Joins CoCoRaHS; A Belated March Arrival of Severe Weather

By: Bob Henson 9:29 PM GMT on March 24, 2015

The fine art of weather watching at the nation’s capital, which goes all the way back to Thomas Jefferson, Philadelphia, and the Declaration of Independence, got a shot of adrenaline with the announcement that a CoCoRaHS rain gauge was being installed at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. The news broke on Monday as part of the fourth annual White House Science Fair.

CoCoRaHS, the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network (CoCoRaHS), involves more than 20,000 volunteers across the U.S. and Canada who collect precipitation data and report it online each morning. The network is North America’s largest single source of daily precipitation data.

Figure 1. CoCoRaHS founder and Colorado state climatologist Nolan Doesken shows off a CoCoRaHS gauge at the White House Science Fair on Monday, March 23. Image credit: Darlene Cavalier.


CoCoRaHS originated in the wake of a deadly flash flood in Fort Collins, CO, on July 28, 1997. The disaster caused more than $200 million in damage, much of it at Colorado State University. State climatologist Nolan Doesken, whose office is at CSU, was frustrated by the lack of reliable data on the massive rainfall that fed the local floods. The experience led Doesken to develop a county-wide network of volunteer observers, starting in 1998. CoCoRaHS gradually spread to other parts of Colorado over the next several years; the second state (Wyoming) joined in 2003, and the 50th state (Nebraska) signed on in 2013. The network also extends to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as Canada.

Automated observing systems have many strengths, including the ability to give quick notice on when precipitation starts or stops at a given location. However, CoCoRaHS uses only manual rain gauges, hail pads, and snowboards: these generally provide the highest accuracy for daily precipitation totals, provided the equipment is placed in an appropriate spot and used properly. CoCoRaHS offers extensive training through a network of county coordinators, as well as a collection of training videos and webinars available on YouTube.


Figure 2. A still image from one of the colorful CoCoRaHS training videos. Image credit: CoCoRaHS.


Because of the simplicity of CoCoRaHS volunteering--all that’s required aside from training is an inexpensive set of standard equipment and a good observing site--it plays well with other types of weather engagement, such as maintaining a personal weather station in the WU network. Data are entered through a CoCoRaHS interface and viewable through maps and station records on the CoCoRaHS website. (CoCoRaHS reports are received by WU, although the once-a-day readings are not currently displayed on the continually updated WunderMap.)




Figure 3. The White House station made its first official appearance on the CoCoRaHS map at 7:00 AM (the standard time for local data collection) on Monday, March 23. The gauge is located in the vicinity of the Kitchen Garden on the South Lawn of the White House. Image credit: CoCoRaHS.

Participants in the WU network and CoCoRaHS can also join NOAA’s venerable Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), which is celebrating its 125th anniversary this year. There are more than 8,000 COOP observers nationwide who collect and file daily reports of maximum and minimum temperature as well as precipitation totals. Several COOP participants have put in more than 70 years of service, and last summer 101-year-old Richard Hendrickson was the first to be honored for more than 80 years of volunteering.

First storm risk of spring Tues-Wed in southern Great Plains
A moderately strong upper-level trough moving through the central U.S., coupled with a strengthening surface low in Kansas, is triggering a two-day period of potential severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. A severe thunderstorm watch stretching from eastern Oklahoma to southern Missouri was issued Tuesday afternoon by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The watch was more noteworthy than usual, since it’s the first watch of any type (tornado or severe thunderstorm) since February 25, and only the fifth watch of any type this year. In records going back to 1970, this is the latest we’ve gone in March before our first watch of any type. Stu Ostro (The Weather Channel) notes that by March 24 of last year, we were up to watch #32; in 2013, #63; and in 2012, #108.

SPC has issued “enhanced” risk areas for both Tuesday and Wednesday, a new rating between “slight” and “moderate” (see our explainer post from Monday for details on the new system). Moisture was still limited near the surface low on Tuesday afternoon, with dew-point temperatures only in the mid-50s. However, low-level wind shear was somewhat favorable near an east-west warm front, and a tornado or two is possible in any supercell thunderstorm that forms near the surface low this evening. As the surface low and upper trough shift east, a robust cold front will barrel across Oklahoma on Wednesday. There should be a short-lived risk of supercells close to the Oklahoma City-Tulsa corridor, likely followed by a southward-charging squall line.

Bob Henson



Figure 4. The Day 2 outlook issued at 1730 GMT Tuesday, valid on Wednesday, March 25, shows much of Oklahoma with an enhanced risk of severe weather. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.




Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

SPC Day 2 Outlook



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

...FL...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND INCREASES TO
NEAR 100KT. THIS LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT INTO
THE CNTRL PENINSULA BY 18Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE KEYS BY 28/06Z. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. ROBUST
UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA GIVEN EXPECTED
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

...PACIFIC NW...

STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS WA/ORE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR-NW WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN FAVORABLE SWLY FLOW REGIME IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO
INCLUDE THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...
GAIESVILLE... PALATKA...AND ST AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT THE BEACHES
DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

PP
Quoting 412. sar2401:

I've been a little suspicious of what happened since Lufthansa/Germanwings refused to release the identity of the pilots. It could be that the pilot that was in control at the time of the crash had mental problems or was driven by some political or religious issue. Regardless of the motive, it's pretty terrible to take 149 other souls with you.
That is just irresponsible speculation with no evidence. Think instead of the families that lost their loved ones.
Quoting guygee:
That is just irresponsible speculation with no evidence. Think instead of the families that lost their loved ones.


Break News
Co-Pilot crashed plane on purpose.
Quoting 504. Sfloridacat5:



Break News
Co-Pilot crashed plane on purpose.


Looks like you might have a chance for some thunderstorms tomorrow. NWS is stating that the chance of thunderstorms with tomorrow's front is mostly confined to the I-4 corridor south since the front will pass by the Tampa area before real daytime heating kicks in.
The trees are trying their best to bloom but the cold keeps delaying them.This is bad for people like me with horrible allergies because usually when the trees are done blooming I don't suffer as much.
Off topic - but as to the naming of pilot issue, resolved:
--
Summary of prosecutor's press conference

Here are the main points of the press conference held by the Marseille public prosecutor, Brice Robin.

The co-pilot of the Germanwings jet that crashed in the French Alps deliberately forced the plane into the descent that led to the disaster, the prosecutor said. He pressed a button that accelerated the Airbus A320’s descent when alone in the cockpit. “It was a voluntary action,” Robin said.
The co-pilot - named by the prosecutor as Andreas Lubitz, 28, a German citizen, was alone because the pilot had gone to the toilet. When he returned, the co-pilot refused to open the door. “The intention was to destroy this plane,” he said.
Lubitz was breathing normally at the point of impact, the prosecutor reveals. He said nothing during the final descent, which lasted about 10 minutes. “Absolute silence inside the cockpit. Nothing, no word during the last 10 minutes.”
There was no indication that Lubitz’s actions amounted to terrorism, Robin said. But he stopped short of declaring it suicide, saying only that was a “legitimate” question to ask.
Cries could be heard just before the impact, the prosecutor said. “The death would have been sudden, immediate.”
Air traffic controllers attempted to contract the plane in the last few minutes before the crash but received no reply from the cockpit.
Robin said he had briefed the families of the dead.

(from the Guardian)
Looks like an active day tomorrow in Florida. However, it looks like the timeframe has moved up. Storms should be coming into Central Fl earlier in the day instead of the afternoon. That should limit the severe threat a bit due to the lack of heating. I would love to say South Florida will get beneficial rains but who knows? Thinking one inch rainfall totals are reasonable across Central Florida.
Quoting 484. KoritheMan:



I used to be scared ****less of storms. There was one storm in 2000 when my family was vacationing in Orange Beach (beautiful place, btw). I was 9 at the time and lightning struck nearby. I was terrified.

Now I'd do anything for a major hurricane or a tornado outbreak, lol. Perspective.


I remain afraid of all forms of severe weather. Tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms are most unnerving. Hurricanes I can prepare for and my home will withstand any kind of winter storm we could possibly get in DC metro. (Not so for tornadoes above f2 or hurricanes above cat 2). My old home was very vulnerable to the sewer backup form of flash flooding since it was at the bottom of a hill so very heavy rain also unnerves me.


Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

The trees are trying their best to bloom but the cold keeps delaying them.This is bad for people like me with horrible allergies because usually when the trees are done blooming I don't suffer as much.


The advantage of a late season is that it gets compressed. Pollen concentrations are higher but there are fewer days of it.

Yews in my area are starting to shed pollen and maples and elms have been for about ten days (I don't track them)
For those of you interested in following the Germanwings event, take a look at www.avherald.com which has consistently accurate follow-up information on commercial aviation events and accidents. The site is based in Austria and provides details on events that many of you outside the aviation community never hear about. Now...back to the weather :-)
Good Morning. Here is the NWS headline for Conus today and the short-term forecast from WPC:


Rain and thunderstorms for East Coast on Thursday; wintry weather for New England

A cold front moving through the eastern U.S. will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the East Coast on Thursday, along with winter weather farther north in parts of New England. Some of the storms could be severe in parts of the coastal mid-Atlantic. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2015 - 12Z Sat Mar 28 2015

...Snow for parts of the Lower Great Lakes into Northern New England...

A cold front extending from the Northern Appalachians southwestward to the
Western Gulf Coast will move off most of the East Coast by Friday evening.
The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the
Western Gulf Coast to the Southern Ohio Valley that will move eastward to
Southeast by Friday morning and to the Southern tip of Florida by Friday
evening. Moisture flowing northward from the Atlantic over the
Mid-Atlantic will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday afternoon. The storm will also produce
light to moderate rain over parts of the Northern Ohio Valley into the
Lower Great Lakes that will move to parts of Southern New England to the
Southern Appalachians by Thursday evening, then off the East Coast by
Friday afternoon.

A secondary front over the Upper Great Lakes will move eastward to the
Lower Great Lakes before dissipating by Friday morning. The energy
associate with the boundary will produce snow over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes that will move into parts of the Lower Great Lakes and
Northern New England by Thursday evening into Friday morning. The western
end of the front over the Northern Plains will break off and move
southward to the Southern Plains by Friday evening. A small area of snow
over the Northern Plains will move southeastward to the Central Plains
changing over to rain by Thursday evening. In addition, upper-level
energy flowing southeastward to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley from
West-Central Canada Thursday night into Friday will aid producing an area
of light snow over parts of Northern Plains moving into parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley by Friday evening. Light rain will also develop over
the southern parts of the area of precipitation on Friday morning moving
southeastward to parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley by
Friday evening.

Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will aid in
producing light to moderate rain along the Northwest Coast and rain inland
by Friday evening.

It looks like an active day for central and south florida tomorrow as the 850mb heights show strong cold air advection moving south and east, with jet stream support, ample moisture, and daytime heating things can be rockin and rollin down here
On the 2nd day marginal risk for South Florida; just a typical frontal passage with some strong t-storms and nothing like the Spring Weather in tornado alley. I lived in South Florida for 40 years, and as adult after age 18 up through 2001, I can only remember maybe 10 smaller tornadoes over that time frame that caused some damage and they don't get those type of 60-70 mph straight line winds like the ones in the mid-west last night.

The biggest tornado and strong wind producer for South Florida typically comes from land falling hurricanes and not from Spring or Fall frontal passages................Just some big boomers from time to time.

On the events in the mid-west last night, another trailer park got hit; they are always the most vulnerable places during severe weather events because of the "flimsy" build and foundation issues inherent in a mobile home.
The overall pattern looks like it will revert to the winter pattern for another week or so before spring according to several forecast models euro and GFS. That resilient ridge buils back strong in the West and the trough digs and amplifies in the East. Also supporting this trough and ridge a MJO on steroids
As a matter of fact, that small tornado that went through downtown Miami and out into Biscayne Bay around 1994 (lots of video of it often makes the shows on TV) went through the outdoor parking lot where I parked at the time and blew out the windows in about 30 cars including mine; but, nothing was flipped over so it was a typical smaller one. We saw the whole thing from our office windows and it was actually quite beautiful to watch as it went into the Bay and essentially died out as a waterspout near the port of Miami; that made my afternoon until I got the call from a co-worker at 5:30 about the parking lot........... :)
Cold rain or snow is possible Easter weekend XD.This winter refuses to give up the fight.
Yeah, the majority of Florida tornadoes are very weak a do little damage.
I've lived in central Oklahoma and now Florida for 20 years. There's no comparison.

We had a very weak tornado back in January just north of Fort Myers.

The deadly tornadoes everyone remembers were way back in 1998 across central Fl. They were also Winter season tornadoes that hit during the middle of the night.

Meteorological synopsis (Wiki)
During the night of February 22 and the very early parts of February 23, severe weather formed over Central Florida. Radar data indicated that several long-lived supercell thunderstorms developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late on February 22, affected the Tampa Bay Area, and eventually produced seven tornadoes between about 11 pm on Feb. 22nd and 2:30 am on Feb. 23rd.[3] As these storms swept through Central Florida, the tornadoes killed 42 people and seriously injured more than 260 others. This was the deadliest tornado outbreak in Florida%u2019s history after the storm that killed 17 people on March 31, 1962, in Santa Rosa County.[4] The tornadoes were strong due to an abnormally strong jet stream with warm, humid air out ahead of the cold front. This is common in the El Ni%uFFFDo phase of the El Ni%uFFFDo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Florida dry season (November 1 - April 30).[5] During El Ni%uFFFDo the jet stream is typically stronger and further south near or over Florida in the winter and spring. This greatly increases the odds that conditions will be favorable for strong tornado development.
On the pilot issue, and the possibility of a suicide dive, that it is almost the psychological equivalent of a lone wolf type event that is often impossible to predict until it happens. Raise some potential issues, which I have no idea how to address, as to whether airline pilots should be routinely monitored for "red flag" events such as a recently filed divorce, or documented domestic issues, or financial difficulties and given a "spot-check" eval by a mental health professional. Very sad all the way around.
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

Cold rain or snow is possible Easter weekend XD.This winter refuses to give up the fight.


Old timers in Tallahassee used to say don't put in your warm season garden until after Easter.

Cold rain is climatologically common at that time of year. Snow.. it's getting d*med late!

March 15, 2012 I put in a single tomato plant into warm mellow soil. It doubled in size from 6 to 12" and set
a fruit by March 26.

Not this year!!
Quoting 520. georgevandenberghe:



Old timers in Tallahassee used to say don't put in your warm season garden until after Easter.

Cold rain is climatologically common at that time of year. Snow.. it's getting d*med late!

March 15, 2012 I put in a single tomato plant into warm mellow soil. It doubled in size from 6 to 12" and set
a fruit by March 26.

Not this year!!
2012 only had two seasons that year which was Spring and summer.Nothing in between until Sandy showed up.
did you see florida is number 6 in growth. when we get a comparable 1928 monster hurricane there will be a mass exodus. alot of folks wont come back
mjo coming? not sold its going to happen
Quoting 496. beell:



And if you looked carefully, you could see some debris being lofted a couple hundred feet in the air...some of the power flashes could have been RFD related but that appeared to be a tornado. I disagree with your assessment. If there were helicopter shots of multiple power flashes from the Tulsa activity I missed it. The vid with the multiple power flashes was from OKC.
Quoting 500. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah the multiple power flashes were with the system in OKC.
Definitely a decent tornado in Moore (which is basically the south central part of OKC).

Good morning, WU.

I was watching Newson6 live online yesterday, reporting from Tulsa. The on-air guy (don't know his name) commented extensively on the power flashes within the city. They were showing an area to the west of the city with their tower cam, and the power flashes were frequent. They also showed a lot of video from their sky news chopper, but I can't recall if power flashes were shown from that feed.

Question - can't the power flashes be the result of simply straight-line winds? The winds in Tulsa (as discussed on air) were in the 80+ range.
Forgive me if this has already been posted.





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Quoting LAbonbon:

Good morning, WU.

I was watching Newson6 live online yesterday, reporting from Tulsa. The on-air guy (don't know his name) commented extensively on the power flashes within the city. They were showing an area to the west of the city with their tower cam, and the power flashes were frequent. They also showed a lot of video from their sky news chopper, but I can't recall if power flashes were shown from that feed.

Question - can't the power flashes be the result of simply straight-line winds? The winds in Tulsa (as discussed on air) were in the 80+ range.


I wouldn't doubt there were lots of power flashes in the Tulsa area. Lots of severe weather with tornadoes reported by spotters basically all around the city.
On the pilot issue, and the possibility of a suicide dive, that it is almost the psychological equivalent of a lone wolf type event that is often impossible to predict until it happens. Raise some potential issues, which I have no idea how to address, as to whether airline pilots should be routinely monitored for "red flag" events such as a recently filed divorce, or documented domestic issues, or financial difficulties and given a "spot-check" eval by a mental health professional. Very sad all the way around.

your first sentence answers why a spot check eval would be difficult.....
Quoting 522. islander101010:

did you see florida is number 6 in growth. when we get a comparable 1928 monster hurricane there will be a mass exodus. alot of folks wont come back
We had major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 and a 60-70 % housing price decline just after that in 2007 and 2008 and that didn't stop em... It's more crowded here than EVER before. I think the only thing that will create a mass exodus would be a quick rise in sea levels and that has yet to happen and most likely won't in my life time.
Quoting 527. ricderr:

On the pilot issue, and the possibility of a suicide dive, that it is almost the psychological equivalent of a lone wolf type event that is often impossible to predict until it happens. Raise some potential issues, which I have no idea how to address, as to whether airline pilots should be routinely monitored for "red flag" events such as a recently filed divorce, or documented domestic issues, or financial difficulties and given a "spot-check" eval by a mental health professional. Very sad all the way around.

your first sentence answers why a spot check eval would be difficult.....
The news reports are sickening...The recording from the cockpit before the crash is beyond description.
We did make a big deal about OKC/Moore and Tulsa yesterday morning into the afternoon. It ended up being warranted.

A lot of people had given up on Moore and Oklahoma City yesterday.

Then the dry line finally started firing off to the west of OKC.

Here's the loop I posted yesterday with the dry line finally starting to let go to the south. Eventually they moved into the OKC and Moore area and dropped the tornado.
Also the first part of the loop you can see the storms that went through the Tulsa area producing the tornadoes in that area.
Quoting 529. hydrus:

The news reports are sickening...The recording from the cockpit before the crash is beyond description.
Agreed. They just mentioned on CNBC that it is required that a flight attendant go into the cockpit while one of the pilots steps out to use the toilet everywhere in the world except for Germany. Quite odd.
Taz check your mail.
Rough storms off the central Gulf Coast this morning, all moving NE, looks like i am in for a noisy/rainy afternoon.
Link
Quoting 533. WeatherBAC:

Rough storms off the central Gulf Coast this morning, all moving NE, looks like i am in for a noisy/rainy afternoon.
Link


Looks like some super cells might be forming in the Gulf.
The news reports are sickening...The recording from the cockpit before the crash is beyond description.


very much so......
Quoting 528. Abacosurf:

We had major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 and a 60-70 % housing price decline just after that in 2007 and 2008 and that didn't stop em... It's more crowded here than EVER before. I think the only thing that will create a mass exodus would be a quick rise in sea levels and that has yet to happen and most likely won't in my life time.
Even though the storms of 04 and 05 were bad the storms didn't bring the brunt of force to major metropolitan areas of Florida like Tampa and Miami/Fort Lauderdale.Wilma and Katrina hit Miami and were bad but not as bad as it could have been if they were to hit directly as 4's or 5's.Another 1926 1928 and 1935 hurricane would be horrible if it were to happen in today's time.
ST. PETERSBURG --

The weather for the 11th edition of the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg will start out lousy and get a lot better.

According to Bay News 9 meteorologist Juli Marquez, rain is likely Friday morning and again later in the day before a weak cold front arrives. The overall rain chance is 80 percent.

Biut Saturday and Sunday will be sunny and dry. Saturday morning will be on the cool side - at least by local standards - and the temperatures will only climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. Saturday will also be windy.

Sunday will be a few degrees warmer.


If there had to be rain at the Grand Prix, Friday's the best day for it. The opening day of the downtown St. Petersburg event is mostly a practice day (Verizon IndyCar Series practices are at 12:30 p.m. and 4:30 p.m.). Saturday features support series races and Grand Prix qualifying at 4:15 p.m.

Sunday begins with support series races at 8:55 a.m. The green flag falls on the Grand Prix at 3 p.m.
Creeping
Quoting 536. washingtonian115:

Even though the storms of 04 and 05 were bad the storms didn't bring the brunt of force to major metropolitan areas of Florida like Tampa and Miami/Fort Lauderdale.Wilma and Katrina hit Miami and were bad but not as bad as it could have been if they were to hit directly as 4's or 5's.Another 1926 1928 and 1935 hurricane would be horrible if it were to happen in today's time.
Although it would/will be horrible I don't think it will create a major mass exodus. People like warm weather...or should I say they hate cold weather more. It's not if a cat 4 or 5 hits a metro but when...cause it's bound to happen over the course of the next 50-100 years.
Congrats on the incredible body change Washi! Takes grit and determination to achieve something like that! Speaks volumes!
Quoting 539. opal92nwf:

Creeping
good morning Opal..stay alert up there ,let us know if anything severe with this storm front coming ok.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH SUB FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. NEAR RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

$$
544. JRRP
2014

2015
545. MahFL
Quoting 531. Abacosurf:

Agreed. They just mentioned on CNBC that it is required that a flight attendant go into the cockpit while one of the pilots steps out to use the toilet everywhere in the world except for Germany. Quite odd.


Not quite true, many countries in the EU follow the same procedure. Also what is to stop the pilot from killing the flight attendant, or just disengaging the auto pilot and putting the airplane into a vertical dive ?
Quoting 541. Abacosurf:

Although it would/will be horrible I don't think it will create a major mass exodus. People like warm weather...or should I say they hate cold weather more. It's not if a cat 4 or 5 hits a metro but when...cause it's bound to happen over the course of the next 50-100 years.
Congrats on the incredible body change Washi! Takes grit and determination to achieve something like that! Speaks volumes!
Thanks Abacosurf! My daughter is telling me to stay away from her clothes while she's away at college.
CybrTeddy check your mail.
Quoting 545. MahFL:



Not quite true, many countries in the EU follow the same procedure. Also what is to stop the pilot from killing the flight attendant, or just disengaging the auto pilot and putting the airplane into a vertical dive ?
Just passing along the info that was spread on national TV at that time.
Depends on how big the steward/ess is and their will to live......might also give time or the abilty for the other pilot to return. I can tell you I would fight till the end to save myself and 150 other souls so keeping another human in there surely can't hurt.
Link
My apology blog.
550. NNYer
Quoting 468. Dakster:



Until you move there and that will be the last thunderstorm they get...

I moved to AK expecting a lot of snow and it was one of the least snowiest and warmest winters on record.

Dak, can you move my way? I would like a warmer winter next year!
Quoting NNYer:

Dak, can you move my way? I would like a warmer winter next year!
I think for the south will be cold this next winter due to the El Niño.
I am in Tallahassee/FL Big Bend and that is one nasty complex headed my way shortly.  I will report back if I see any really bad weather (garbage cans flying, etc) later this afternoon............................... :)
Déjà Vu: El Niño Take Two

Excerpt:

Unbelievably, it was exactly last year at this time (March 2014) when we were watching the progress of a strong downwelling Kelvin wave crossing the equatorial Pacific (#1), in part driven by westerly wind anomalies (#2), and some folks were getting excited about a potentially strong El Niño by the end of 2014 (#3). It’s similar enough to have us rubbing our eyes and double-checking the year on the calendar.
Quoting 534. tampabaymatt:



Looks like some super cells might be forming in the Gulf.


Well looks like the bulk of the lightning producing cells may now be shifting more off to the east so….. maybe just a rainy day in SW Alabama, may still get some lightning but it looks less likely now.
555. MahFL
Quoting 548. Abacosurf:

so keeping another human in there surely can't hurt.


It might not be able to help either, but that's a mute point.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On the pilot issue, and the possibility of a suicide dive, that it is almost the psychological equivalent of a lone wolf type event that is often impossible to predict until it happens. Raise some potential issues, which I have no idea how to address, as to whether airline pilots should be routinely monitored for "red flag" events such as a recently filed divorce, or documented domestic issues, or financial difficulties and given a "spot-check" eval by a mental health professional. Very sad all the way around.
Sad, indeed. Speaking of which: I can't help but wonder whether those hinting this morning about the co-pilot being of a particular ethnic, religious, or ideological group--something they believe they could ascertain simply by knowing that co-pilot's name, which they believed officials were intentionally hiding for (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) "obvious" reasons--will now be willing to both apologize and admit that their presuppositions were more than a little racist and prejudicial. And will they suggest that all pilots sharing the co-pilot's skin color, nationality, or religion be subject to more careful screening in light of what they're "capable of being motivated" to do?
First thunder of the year here in South Central Pennsylvania! Pretty heavy rain, too. I like it.
Weather is also going worse in India and swine flu is increasing at alarming rate. I found some useful home remedies for swine flu which is pretty helpful