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U.S. Spring Flood Forecast: No Widespread Major Flooding Expected

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:35 PM GMT on March 20, 2015

No widespread major flooding is expected this spring in the U.S., NOAA said on Thursday in their annual spring flood risk forecast. Rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding because of a heavy snowpack of 3 to 9 inches of snow water equivalent, coupled with the potential for heavy spring rain to fall on the snow and cause a sudden melt-water pulse. Significant river ice across northern New York and northern New England increase the risk of flooding related to ice jams and ice jam breakups if there is a quick warm-up with heavy rainfall. The latest 16-day forecast from the GFS model does not call for any heavy rainfall events capable of triggering widespread moderate flooding through the end of March, though.

Areas at risk of moderate flooding:
Eastern New England and western New York
Lower Missouri River basin in Missouri and eastern Kansas
Lower Ohio River basin including portions of southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana, and western Kentucky.


Figure 1. The NOAA spring flood forecast shows about one-third of the country is at risk of minor to moderate flooding, but there are no areas at high risk of major flooding. Image credit: NOAA Spring Flood Forecast.

Flood categories are defined by NOAA as follows:
Minor Flooding: Minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat (e.g., inundation of roads).

Moderate Flooding: Some inundation of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.

Major Flooding: Extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.

Drought a bigger concern than flooding in the U.S. this year
Meanwhile, widespread drought conditions are expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon this spring as the dry season begins. “Periods of record warmth in the West and not enough precipitation during the rainy season cut short drought-relief in California this winter and prospects for above average temperatures this spring may make the situation worse,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. El Niño finally arrived in February, but forecasters say it’s too weak and too late in the rainy season to provide much relief for California, which will soon reach its fourth year in drought. Current water supply forecasts and outlooks in the western United States range from near normal in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and upper Colorado, to much below normal in the southern Rockies, portions of the Great Basin and in California:

·      Columbia and Snake Rivers - Median forecast at The Dalles is 82% of average
·      Missouri River - Median forecast at Toston is 86% of average
·      Colorado River - Median forecast inflow to Lake Powell is 71% of average
·      Rio Grande and Pecos River – Median forecasts generally range from 60% to 105% of average
·      Great Basin – Median forecasts range from 35% to 75% of average for most locations
·      California - Median forecasts range from less than 20% to 50% of average


Figure 2. The March 19 NOAA drought outlook calls for drought to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon through June with the onset of the dry season in April. Drought is also forecast to develop in remaining areas of Oregon and western Washington. Drought is also likely to continue in parts of the southern Plains and in Minnesota. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.



WunderPoster of the week: Sundog!
Even though it’s unclear how they got their name, we do know what it is that produces sundogs (also written “sun dogs”), the phenomenon highlighted in this week’s WunderPoster (Figure 3, right).

Normally seen as a pair of bright spots, and sometimes referred to mock suns, sundogs occur in the presence of very thin ice-crystal clouds such as cirrus or faint cirrostratus. They form when sunshine is refracted horizontally through the sides of plate-shaped crystals that face upward and downward within the cloud. Each sundog is located 22° away from the sun, with a visible halo often connecting the sundogs.

All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards. There’s also still time for you to provide photographic inspiration for a new WunderPoster, as part of the 20th anniversary celebration of Weather Underground. The deadline for submissions is April 2. Our “picture yourself here” website has all the details.



Figure 4. This pair of sunrise sundogs appeared above snow-covered fields on Feb. 5, 2014, near Seward, Nebraska. Image credit: wunderphotographer lindag47.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. beell:





Which one is which? I can't tell. :O)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GFS shows a freeze all the way to the FL Panhandle Coast. So much for those saying it can't happen as the miracle shift in the models didn't occur over the weekend. GFS has a high of 56 on Sunday with lows in the upper 30's/low 40's. Lots of rain before that though.


"So much for those saying it can't happen." Pretty arrogant statement for a forecast that is a week out.
Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just got home from watching Kingsman: The Secret Service; what a great movie. Anyways...

Have you guys seen the medium-range GFS? Take a look at this unique pattern that we've never seen before!



Bring it! Come to papa as this guy has been hot for weeks.

Quoting 502. jrweatherman:


"So much for those saying it can't happen." Pretty arrogant statement for a forecast that is a week out.


LOL! I don't think well be as cold as what the GFS is showing but temps in the 60's and lows in the 40's is a ticket you can right up at this point as all models agree. So my guess is 66 for Sunday low 46 Saturday Night.
- ugh - Can't get the picture to load... Anyways - Besdies Bat Boy, Scott looks like loughner.

Hey Daxter, I used to live in Adak in 90-93. just saying Hello. I don't know, where exactly are you?
Quoting 506. ATLsweather:

Hey Daxter, I used to live in Adak in 90-93. just saying Hello. I don't know, where exactly are you?


In Eagle RIver... Near Anchor town... How did you like Adak? IIRC, that is pretty darn remote. Were you here with the military/USCG?
Quoting 498. StormTrackerScott:



GFS shows a freeze all the way to the FL Panhandle Coast. So much for those saying it can't happen as the miracle shift in the models didn't occur over the weekend. GFS has a high of 56 on Sunday with lows in the upper 30's/low 40's. Lots of rain before that though.

Just as long as we DON'T get a freeze on the FL Panhandle Coast I'll take anything else. I sure hope these statements don't come true. What comforts me is that this is a full week out.
Beeee-EEE-eeeell.

STAHP!
Quoting 499. Methurricanes:

Mexico City tried to do that, and people just bought two old cheap cars with worse efficiency than their old newer cars, and it made the problem worse. People will avoid Public Transit if they don't want to take it.


With Battery Vehicles available they just need to ban ICE cars on odd days and then you will see a large battery infrastructure pop up. Although in Paris and Mexico City I am not sure how they generate power so again it could be worse. That would have to be cleaned up first.
Quoting 483. opal92nwf:


I can't help but think residents of Darwin get jittery whenever a tropical cyclone is going to meander right off the coast there.

I'm sure they do. Darwin does not have a pleasant history when It comes to tropical cyclones.

Tracy may have been one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever, but the damage it caused in Darwin is nothing short of incredible.

yes, navy, I was raised there partly a navy brat. Used to see a zero plane buried in the sea wall, prob. still there. We had alpha, charlie, bravo.. for weather, alpha was ice freezing in the lungs.. then go down. Smallest national forest in the world, cold war sucked. I was a kid.
Sorry, don't understand how to link messages, I am new.
Quoting 512. ATLsweather:

yes, navy, I was raised there partly a navy brat. Used to see a zero plane buried in the sea wall, prob. still there. We had alpha, charlie, bravo.. for weather, alpha was ice freezing in the lungs.. then go down. Smallest national forest in the world, cold war sucked. I was a kid.


Cold War seems to be back.. Only this time it doesn't seem to be so "cold" - more of the potential for it to be a hot war.

Quoting beell:
Ya know, I knew had seen that face somewhere before. Maybe Brian has direct contact with our reptilian overlords. :-)
Quoting ATLsweather:
Sorry, don't understand how to link messages, I am new.
Just click on the "Quote" button and then post in the text box that opens. The message you're replying to will automatically show then.
you have a point....seems it is thawing, permfafrost lets go gasses that lets go more warming that melts more frozen soil, that lets more old frozen gas...does it end? Will Alaska become a sinking mud pit?
518. beell
Quoting 515. sar2401:

Ya know, I knew had seen that face somewhere before. Maybe Brian has direct contact with our reptilian overlords. :-)


I appreciate Brian's work in bringing news-you-can-use that offers something for everybody...but I must admit the bat boy picture creeps me out and I would rather scroll on past the links than click them.

Don't ever put Brian in charge of a marketing department...
Quoting 516. sar2401:

Just click on the "Quote" button and then post in the text box that opens. The message you're replying to will automatically show then.
got it, thanx
Quoting 517. ATLsweather:

you have a point....seems it is thawing, permfafrost lets go gasses that lets go more warming that melts more frozen soil, that lets more old frozen gas...does it end? Will Alaska become a sinking mud pit?


I guess it could...
I love Alaska bye the way. I just want it to stay that way, cold, scary, and full of bears, salmon, and death, Because that is what it is.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Just as long as we DON'T get a freeze on the FL Panhandle Coast I'll take anything else. I sure hope these statements don't come true. What comforts me is that this is a full week out.
Once again, the GFS is a good indicator it's going to be much cooler next weekend than this weekend. It's not at all good at predicting if you or I are going to see a freeze. None of our local mets have come even close to committing to the idea there's going to be a freeze. The only thing they are saying, and the only thing that's reasonable to say, is that a frost remains a possibility. If we do get frost, it's much more likely to occur in the northern sections of the forecast areas than the southern. The pros learned a long time ago that things 168 hours out aren't true yet.
Oh, and nice northern lights, long winters, ...Caribou, fishing, lot's o' cool stuff. Miss it.
Quoting ATLsweather:
got it, thanx
No problem. Welcome to the zoo. I take it you're in Atlanta now?
Quoting 508. opal92nwf:


Just as long as we DON'T get a freeze on the FL Panhandle Coast I'll take anything else. I sure hope these statements don't come true. What comforts me is that this is a full week out.


Sure it can't be ruled out, but there probably won't be one.
Well we got 0.25 yesterday here and 0.92 this evening so we are up to 2.92 for March, which is still quite a bit below average, however, we had 5.14 in January and 5.70 in February so we are doing alright moisture wise overall.
Quoting beell:


I appreciate Brian's work in bringing news-you-can-use that offers something for everybody...but I must admit the bat boy picture creeps me out and I would rather scroll on past the links than click them.

Don't ever put Brian in charge of a marketing department...
It has kind of a strange fascination for me. Kind of like one of the wrecks on the side of the road, where you're looking for bodies and hope you don't see any. I think it's the teeth. :-)
Quoting 521. ATLsweather:

I love Alaska bye the way. I just want it to stay that way, cold, scary, and full of bears, salmon, and death, Because that is what it is.


Yes, except it is warming up here really fast and staying that way so far. I hope that our warm winters and California's lack of water are somehow related and both will go back to "normal".

Quoting 500. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of record lows are in the billing with this next Cold Blast. Look at these highs for Sunday across FL even 60's in S FL for HIGHS!




I highly doubt we'll have low 50's for highs here. We'll probably see 40's for lows and 60's for highs, maybe some 30's can't be rules out either for lows, but then the warmth will bounce back, nothing exceptional.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well we got 0.25 yesterday here and 0.92 this evening so we are up to 2.92 for March, which is still quite a bit below average, however, we had 5.14 in January and 5.70 in February so we are doing alright moisture wise overall.
I've got some dying thunderstorms just to the west that I'm hoping will hold together long enough to at least give me...maybe...a quarter inch or so. Unfortunately, this is my last shot before Wednesday now. I mean, fer cryin' out loud, FWB gets five inches and have 0.21". It's just not fair....
Quoting 504. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! I don't think well be as cold as what the GFS is showing but temps in the 60's and lows in the 40's is a ticket you can right up at this point as all models agree. So my guess is 66 for Sunday low 46 Saturday Night.


That's believable, and probably closer to reality than what the GFS shows. The chance of 50's for highs in Orlando is pretty dang low, lol.
Quoting 530. sar2401:

I've got some dying thunderstorms just to the west that I'm hoping will hold together long enough to at least give me...maybe...a quarter inch or so. Unfortunately, this is my last shot before Wednesday now. I mean, fer cryin' out loud, FWB gets five inches and have 0.21". It's just not fair....


Yeah that's not fun, it would have been nice to see 5 inches here, but oh well, such is life. Heavy rain events tend to hug the gulf coast the best.
Didn't the good old WPC have the whole southern half of Alabama with a huge swatch of 2-3 inch rain amounts including you? lol
I like salmon.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah that's not fun, it would have been nice to see 5 inches here, but oh well, such is life. Heavy rain events tend to hug the gulf coast the best.
Didn't the good old WPC have the whole southern half of Alabama with a huge swatch of 2-3 inch rain amounts including you? lol
WOOHOO! I just heard on clap of thunder! It's pouring out...well, not exactly pouring, but up to 0.20" per hour. I've had 0.05" in just the last 15 minutes! Radar Dog is under the desk! Severe storm season in SE Alabama has arrived!

Yes, the WPC said 1.50" to 2.30" by Monday afternoon. Since the only thing I'll see Monday afternoon is sun, we can pretty well write off Monday for rain. The WPC was right that there was going to be rain. It had the amounts and the locations wrong but, other than that, they nailed it!
Quoting 510. Dakster:



With Battery Vehicles available they just need to ban ICE cars on odd days and then you will see a large battery infrastructure pop up. Although in Paris and Mexico City I am not sure how they generate power so again it could be worse. That would have to be cleaned up first.

I think France gets most of its electricity from nukes
Interesting, haven't seen this before.

View on YouTube
Quoting 534. sar2401:

WOOHOO! I just heard on clap of thunder! It's pouring out...well, not exactly pouring, but up to 0.20" per hour. I've had 0.05" in just the last 15 minutes! Radar Dog is under the desk! Severe storm season in SE Alabama has arrived!

Yes, the WPC said 1.50" to 2.30" by Monday afternoon. Since the only thing I'll see Monday afternoon is sun, we can pretty well write off Monday for rain. The WPC was right that there was going to be rain. It had the amounts and the locations wrong but, other than that, they nailed it!



Lol, I think they did get the rainfall forecast pretty good around here, but I don't remember exactly what their forecast was for this area, so I can't say for sure.
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 6:36 PM AKDT on March 22, 2015
Clear
44.7 °F
Clear
Windchill: 45 °F
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Rising)
stuck in the 40's Dakster, was 74.5 here,

More of the same here.....
Quoting 533. aquak9:

I like salmon.


Me too. And you would figure the state where it is brought ashore to be shipped out it would be cheap... BUT noooooooo. It's more expensive by the pound that prime rib up here. Usually around $18 - $20 a pound. Looks like the only way I will get to be able to afford salmon is to go out and catch it myself. I like sushi too at least that is comparable in price to what I was paying for it, in MIami...
Was extremely interesting to see the MJO progress almost exactly how it did back in March 1997

Amplitude was really the only difference.

Everyhthing down to the 850mb wind anoms match up.








Quoting 538. PedleyCA:


stuck in the 40's Dakster, was 74.5 here,
More of the same here.....


Yeah AWESOME Day... DId you see the picture I posted of the scenery on the hike I went onto today?

Here is another one - the path looks like concrete, but it is actually SOLID ice. Like walking on an ice cube, except for that little patch of dirt at the end of the bridge.



Oh and better than the valley they are stuck in the 50s...
Quoting opal92nwf:
Interesting, haven't seen this before.

View on YouTube
This was put together by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council in 2010, after they apparently found a large dump truck full of Federal money abandoned by a roadside. You can read some of things this excerise was supposed to cover, but only some. Many of the important sections are not for mere civilians to read, but "For Official Use Only". It was held on the morning of August 5, 2010. Yes, all this work went into an exercise that lasted four hours. After over four years, all the documents are still listed as "DRAFT", which give you a good idea of the last time anyone even looked at these again. In addition, they planned a practice hurricane at the height of real hurricane season! One of the first things you learn when you do these kinds of things is never plan them for a time when the real thing might happen. The second thing you learn is never plan an exercise using the worst case scenario! You plan for a bad event but not the worst, since, just like in the real thing, particpants throw up their hands and give up. This is not what we hope to have happen at a tabletop exercise. I'm sure, however, that all the money was well spent, and people appearing in the video and the video production company were happy to participate.
543. beell
Quoting 533. aquak9:

I like salmon.



“The cold is hard to bear. Also, salmon are hard to bear, and bear are hard to salmon.
”
― Jarod Kintz, Sleepwalking is restercise
Quoting 543. beell:




“The cold is hard to bear. Also, salmon are hard to bear, and bear are hard to salmon.
”
― Jarod Kintz, Sleepwalking is restercise


I can hardly bear it anymore.


SAR - You know I always like a good tabletop exercise.

We plan for worst case scenarios all the time - now it still has to be a winnable problem. Because you can always say a Nuke got dropped on Dade County, game over. And that isn't fair.
545. beell
Quoting 542. sar2401:

This was put together by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council in 2010, after they apparently found a large dump truck full of Federal money abandoned by a roadside. You can read some of things this excerise was supposed to cover, but only some. Many of the important sections are not for mere civilians to read, but "For Official Use Only". It was held on the morning of August 5, 2010. Yes, all this work went into an exercise that lasted four hours. After over four years, all the documents are still listed as "DRAFT", which give you a good idea of the last time anyone even looked at these again. In addition, they planned a practice hurricane at the height of real hurricane season! One of the first things you learn when you do these kinds of things is never plan them for a time when the real thing might happen. The second thing you learn is never plan an exercise using the worst case scenario! You plan for a bad event but not the worst, since, just like in the real thing, particpants throw up their hands and give up. This is not what we hope to have happen at a tabletop exercise. I'm sure, however, that all the money was well spent, and people appearing in the video and the video production company were happy to participate.


R Scott may have to make some mention of climate change if he would like a bit of money from FEMA for any future Hazard Mitigation Plans.

FEMA to States: No Climate Planning, No Money/InsideClimateNews-March 18th, 2015

"The policy doesn't affect federal money for relief after a hurricane, flood or other disaster. Specifically, beginning in March 2016, states seeking preparedness money will have to assess how climate change threatens their communities. Governors will have to sign off on hazard mitigation plans. While some states, including New York, have already started incorporating climate risks in their plans, most haven’t because FEMA's old 2008 guidelines didn't require it".
Quoting ACSeattle:

I think France gets most of its electricity from nukes
Yep, 73% of it. That's one of the reasons I thought the brouhaha over the eclipse was pretty silly. Just the power available from France could easily take up any solar slack from surrounding countries. Most countries in Europe get a significant proportion of their power from nukes, which is one of the reasons why Germany, Italy, and Spain, all with less than 20% of their power from nukes, are leading the solar parade. Countries like France and Belgium aren't so enthusiastic. It's a sad thing that Japan, a country which once got almost 30% of its power from nukes, is now down to less than 1%. Poor siting of generators at one plant led to the shutdown of all Japan's nuclear energy generators. Meanwhile, coal fired plants are running full steam (excuse the pun) and are now pumping record amounts of CO2 into the air...but at least we're safe from three-eyed fish. :-)
well presented system

Quoting 542. sar2401:



I was thinking more of a Miami wipe excerise
with se fla underwater from lake o southward
that don't recede
well a little bit may recede
do you think that would put a funny look
on the governor's face
Quoting Dakster:


I can hardly bear it anymore.


SAR - You know I always like a good tabletop exercise.

We plan for worst case scenarios all the time - now it still has to be a winnable problem. Because you can always say a Nuke got dropped on Dade County, game over. And that isn't fair.
Since I was responsible for most of them in my department, I kind of liked them too. :-) As you say, a tabletop exercise, especially when it's the first one you've ever held, has to be winnable and leave the participants feeling reasonably good about themselves and their agencies. Having your maiden voyage be a cat 5 plowing right up the center of Tampa Bay is just not a good plan. Having your next period operational plan be "We're all gonna die" is not good. At least they only had to wait four hours before they got sandwiches and cookies though.
Quoting beell:


R Scott may have to make some mention of climate change if he would like a bit of money from FEMA for any future Hazard Mitigation Plans.

FEMA to States: No Climate Planning, No Money/InsideClimateNews-March 18th, 2015

"The policy doesn't affect federal money for relief after a hurricane, flood or other disaster. Specifically, beginning in March 2016, states seeking preparedness money will have to assess how climate change threatens their communities. Governors will have to sign off on hazard mitigation plans. While some states, including New York, have already started incorporating climate risks in their plans, most haven’t because FEMA's old 2008 guidelines didn't require it".
Although hazard mitigation plans are usually a different pot of money than regional disaster drills. I'm sure, however, that The Guv will find a way to maximize revenue no matter what the source. He can just say he agrees with everything while crossing his fingers behind his back. :-)
Quoting 549. sar2401:

Since I was responsible for most of them in my department, I kind of liked them too. :-) As you say, a tabletop exercise, especially when it's the first one you've ever held, has to be winnable and leave the participants feeling reasonably good about themselves and their agencies. Having your maiden voyage be a cat 5 plowing right up the center of Tampa Bay is just not a good plan. Having your next period operational plan be "We're all gonna die" is not good. At least they only had to wait four hours before they got sandwiches and cookies though.
I grabbed this off the world wide web somewhere not my own words

OK, what if a Category 5 hurricane were to strike the South Florida coast, packing winds in excess of 155 mph? If it were to come ashore near the Ft. Lauderdale airport and move slowly, you would have about the worst disaster you could imagine. Nearly every resident of Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties would experience full force winds, likely endure major flooding, and obviously be without power and supplies for a long time.

As the storm tracks westward across the state, it encounters Lake Okeechobee and causes several breaches resulting in more flooding of the low-lying areas nearby and even further south as the water travels into already saturated areas. Winds will likely have died down some most probably the area will be hit by Category 4 winds.

The storm continues across the state towards the west coast of Florida. Now Naples, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, and even upwards to Tampa get to experience the flooding and substantial winds. While the storm dies down more as it moves over land, it could very well reach the west coast of Florida as a Category 3 or stronger storm, depending on its path. If it moves only slightly north, Orlando would feel its wrath as well.

As you can see, if a storm of this magnitude hits South Florida and moves along the right path for a worst case scenario, virtually everyone living in Orlando and south would have their homes damaged or destroyed.
Water temperature of 82.2F at Station 42360 in the central Gulf south of Louisiana (26.6N 90.2W). That's insane for March. Even assuming a cool snap next weekend, I highly doubt we'll get 35 kt post-frontal wind action like we would earlier in the year. I'm really liking this. If the shear cooperates and these positive anomalies persist, the Gulf of Mexico could see a lot of tropical activity this year.

Quoting 504. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! I don't think well be as cold as what the GFS is showing but temps in the 60's and lows in the 40's is a ticket you can right up at this point as all models agree. So my guess is 66 for Sunday low 46 Saturday Night.
40s for peninsular Florida in April? Sorry Scott, but I really doubt this. Maybe the low to mid 50s.
The NWS is by far the most visited government website!

Link
555. vis0
First Stay tuned for weather warnings, if not in those areas go ahead read my comment, if in those areas its best to stay tuned to emergency or weather radio stations and leave my comment for a later hour

Mis 22mil pesos = my 22cents UsofA:: remember my Duodecium theory, ...no? then go to the next message please.
...Oh?!, some do! well read these articles on how spring gets shorter/starched and see if you can match my "duodecium" amount as to years to why the spring gets coiled/shorter and how in the science i call Galacsics Its not the strength of let say light or "sound"/resonances but the correct interacting angle(s) that opens "intrÆctive" windows to allow flow(s) to n fro through quantum for "energies" from physics & Galacsics.

Weird?
This is why to meditate one needs not some strong serious though but calmness quiet so the correct angle from the area in which our brain folds its wings to be outwardly confident can open up and ask the reflection of yourself within the soul to continue into within to go without.

ooohhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmcdonald had a farm e i e i OHM - come'on everybody join in - with a thought thought here and a ...

Quoting 554. Jedkins01:

The NWS is by far the most visited government website!

Link

I am pleased by this.
Pardon the off-topic post, but since I tend to place myself on an intellectual pedestal a lot - sometimes to a fault - it's a bit refreshing to not only have a friend that doesn't feed me sugarcoated feel good BS, but actually gives me his opinions unabashedly. Even I'm wrong sometimes. :P







Rats! Hit the wrong button. In response to your post, Keep, there's no doubt in my mind that a cat 5 making a direct hit on south Florida and the "Big ONe" hitting LA are running neck and neck for the worst disaster, n terms of money and lives, that has ever hit the United States. That's exactly why we don't plan for those. There's no way that any agency or group of agencies can respond to a disaster of that magnitude. If nothing else, all those people who, on a normal day, go out to help you, will now be taking care of their families and neighborhoods. We can plan for something less catastrophic but these end of the world kinds of things are just beyond anything we can do. Anyone who thinks they're going to see emergency responders in less than week is kidding themselves. The one thing we tried to get across to people in California was to get to know their neighbors beforehand and try to come up with a plan to get through something like this. At the very least, have enough food, water, and supplies to help your family make it through seven days completely on your own. If you wait for the government to help, you're going to be dead.
Quoting vis0:
First Stay tuned for weather warnings, if not in those areas go ahead read my comment, if in those areas its best to stay tuned to emergency or weather radio stations and leave my comment for a later hour

Mis 22mil pesos = my 22cents UsofA:: remember my Duodecium theory, ...no? then go to the next message please.
...Oh?!, some do! well read these articles on how spring gets shorter/starched and see if you can match my "duodecium" amount as to years to why the spring gets coiled/shorter and how in the science i call Galacsics Its not the strength of let say light or "sound"/resonances but the correct interacting angle(s) that opens "intrÆctive" windows to allow flow(s) to n fro through quantum for "energies" from physics & Galacsics.

Weird?
This is why to meditate one needs not some strong serious though but calmness quiet so the correct angle from the area in which our brain folds its wings to be outwardly confident can open up and ask the reflection of yourself within the soul to continue into within to go without.

ooohhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmcdonald had a farm e i e i OHM - come'on everybody join in - with a thought thought here and a ...
I'm sorry, vis, but you need to post this kind of thing earlier in the day. My brain is barely operating at very obtuse angles right now. I promise I'll dwell on this in the morning, when my brain is about as sharp as it ever gets. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:

I am pleased by this.
Although it's only #422 in the US total, and that's after filtering out the porn sites. :-)
Quoting 561. sar2401:

Although it's only #422 in the US total, and that's after filtering out the porn sites. :-)


LMAO
Quoting KoritheMan:
Water temperature of 82.2F at Station 42360 in the central Gulf south of Louisiana (26.6N 90.2W). That's insane for March. Even assuming a cool snap next weekend, I highly doubt we'll get 35 kt post-frontal wind action like we would earlier in the year. I'm really liking this. If the shear cooperates and these positive anomalies persist, the Gulf of Mexico could see a lot of tropical activity this year.
What were the temperatures last year? I'm remembering the Gulf water temperatures were unusually high for the previous two years in spring. Certainly the Gulf temperatures have been in the famed "rocket fuel" category during the season for the past two years, and that didn't so anything for Gulf storms. I suspect that, once water temperatures have reached some ideal convective level, it really doesn't matter how much higher they go. We still won't have anything happen until the procession of anomalously cold fronts quit making it into the Gulf, something we saw starting in the late summer last year. We also need to have the A/B high get back to Bermuda and stop bringing dry, stable air into the Gulf. Next, we need to have shear overall relax and the tradewinds to back off. I don't know what will happen this season with our putative El Nino but we already had El Nino-like conditions for a large part of last season and the effect was nil, so I'm not sure why a "real" El Nino is going to help matters. Like always, it's like throwing darts in the dark when it comes to guessing about this year's season and what might lie ahead for general conditions. I guess we just sit back and watch, since there isn't much else we can do.
564. vis0

Quoting 559. sar2401:

Rats! Hit the wrong button. In response to your post, Keep, there's no doubt in my mind that a cat 5 making a direct hit on south Florida and the "Big ONe" hitting LA are running neck and neck for the worst disaster, n terms of money and lives, that has ever hit the United States. That's exactly why we don't plan for those. There's no way that any agency or group of agencies can respond to a disaster of that magnitude. If nothing else, all those people who, on a normal day, go out to help you, will now be taking care of their families and neighborhoods. We can plan for something less catastrophic but these end of the world kinds of things are just beyond anything we can do. Anyone who thinks they're going to see emergency responders in less than week is kidding themselves. The one thing we tried to get across to people in California was to get to know their neighbors beforehand and try to come up with a plan to get through something like this. At the very least, have enough food, water, and supplies to help your family make it through seven days completely on your own. If you wait for the government to help, you're going to be dead.
Worst case TS scenario for Florida TO ME would be a small BUT STRONG Hurr from the East hitting the Miami area while a wider slow GoMx Hurr crossed WSW to NE of Florida, just far apart to not affect each other till they stall each other, over Florida.
Quoting 551. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I grabbed this off the world wide web somewhere not my own words

OK, what if a Category 5 hurricane were to strike the South Florida coast, packing winds in excess of 155 mph? If it were to come ashore near the Ft. Lauderdale airport and move slowly, you would have about the worst disaster you could imagine. Nearly every resident of Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties would experience full force winds, likely endure major flooding, and obviously be without power and supplies for a long time.

As the storm tracks westward across the state, it encounters Lake Okeechobee and causes several breaches resulting in more flooding of the low-lying areas nearby and even further south as the water travels into already saturated areas. Winds will likely have died down some most probably the area will be hit by Category 4 winds.

The storm continues across the state towards the west coast of Florida. Now Naples, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, and even upwards to Tampa get to experience the flooding and substantial winds. While the storm dies down more as it moves over land, it could very well reach the west coast of Florida as a Category 3 or stronger storm, depending on its path. If it moves only slightly north, Orlando would feel its wrath as well.

As you can see, if a storm of this magnitude hits South Florida and moves along the right path for a worst case scenario, virtually everyone living in Orlando and south would have their homes damaged or destroyed.



And the same time a 9.0 undersea Earthquake happens sending a 600 foot wave over across the entire Eastern Seaboard. Not only destroying millions of homes and flooding critical infrastructure areas (like all of D.C.) You now have several nuclear power plants melting down. Reports of armed criminal gangs have been reported as they take over major cities. Widespread looting has also been reported.

While this is happening Russia decides to take advantage of the situation and has just launched a nuclear attack against the United States. They have targeted several large population centers in the middle to western United States.

You have 5 minutes, What is your response?
Quoting 561. sar2401:

Although it's only #422 in the US total, and that's after filtering out the porn sites. :-)


If you don't filter out the porn sites, what number is it. You can use scientific notation.
Quoting 563. sar2401:

What were the temperatures last year? I'm remembering the Gulf water temperatures were unusually high for the previous two years in spring. Certainly the Gulf temperatures have been in the famed "rocket fuel" category during the season for the past two years, and that didn't so anything for Gulf storms. I suspect that, once water temperatures have reached some ideal convective level, it really doesn't matter how much higher they go. We still won't have anything happen until the procession of anomalously cold fronts quit making it into the Gulf, something we saw starting in the late summer last year. We also need to have the A/B high get back to Bermuda and stop bringing dry, stable air into the Gulf. Next, we need to have shear overall relax and the tradewinds to back off. I don't know what will happen this season with our putative El Nino but we already had El Nino-like conditions for a large part of last season and the effect was nil, so I'm not sure why a "real" El Nino is going to help matters. Like always, it's like throwing darts in the dark when it comes to guessing about this year's season and what might lie ahead for general conditions. I guess we just sit back and watch, since there isn't much else we can do.


They weren't anywhere close to this warm last year. Barely a sliver above average, actually:



I agree that it's more theoretical than actual, and there's no rhyme or reason to think it'll stay this warm through hurricane season. But tropical cyclones tend to develop in areas where ocean temperatures are above average (though obviously they'll develop anywhere regardless), but the upper-level winds and thermodynamics have to cooperate first.
For the record, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly for August through September last year:

Quoting KoritheMan:

40s for peninsular Florida in April? Sorry Scott, but I really doubt this. Maybe the low to mid 50s.
Looks like the coldest day for me will be Saturday, with a high of 59, and Saturday night/Sunday morning, with a low of 40. The average low is 49 now, so nine degrees lower than average is chilly but not extraordinary. We did hit 30 on March 28, 1955, and 25 on March 27 of the same year. Looking upstream, it was amazingly cold everywhere in the east on those same date. Indianapolis hit 11 on the 27th and an amazing low of 8 on the 26th, so there was a big supply of cold air draining all the way down here. The forecast for Sunday morning in Indianapolis for Sunday morning is in the upper 20's. It seems like we need to have air nearly as cold in Indianapolis as what we saw in 1955 for us to get below freezing, and that doesn't look like it's going to happen. The good thing is that, after the 30th, we never hit freezing again until late October, so this should be the end of winter one way or the other.
Quoting KoritheMan:


They weren't anywhere close to this warm last year. Barely a sliver above average, actually:



I agree that it's more theoretical than actual, and there's no rhyme or reason to think it'll stay this warm through hurricane season. But tropical cyclones tend to develop in areas where ocean temperatures are above average (though obviously they'll develop anywhere regardless), but the upper-level winds and thermodynamics have to cooperate first.
Ah. That's the trouble with believing my memory, but I did remember that Gulf cooled off a lot quicker than usual in late summer. I just think SST's are the one physical thing we can point to now as some kind of indicator, but how it is now may have no relationship to what happens during the season. I'm certain that, all things being equal, hurricanes will start in areas with above normal SST's, but all other things aren't equal, as we've seen basically since 2011. It seems like this all started with those lows in the BOC that looked good for a while then, when they started moving, they hung a left into Mexico and croaked. That was what, 2012? And I think it happened like three times in a row. Assuming my memory is correct, which is not a very good assumption. something started happening right then that hasn't stopped. I remember that low that was right off the coast of Texas last summer that we all got excited about until it just drifted onshore and croaked there too. When's the last time we had an actual hurricane that formed in the Gulf? I was thinking maybe Nate 2011 but that one actually formed in the BOC and was only hurricane because the wind got strong enough on one PEMEX platform so it got reclassified in the reanalysis. Seems like it's been forever.
Quoting Dakster:


If you don't filter out the porn sites, what number is it. You can use scientific notation.
{SNARK} I'll let the K9 wonder dog come up with a number for that one.
Quoting Dakster:


And the same time a 9.0 undersea Earthquake happens sending a 600 foot wave over across the entire Eastern Seaboard. Not only destroying millions of homes and flooding critical infrastructure areas (like all of D.C.) You now have several nuclear power plants melting down. Reports of armed criminal gangs have been reported as they take over major cities. Widespread looting has also been reported.

While this is happening Russia decides to take advantage of the situation and has just launched a nuclear attack against the United States. They have targeted several large population centers in the middle to western United States.

You have 5 minutes, What is your response?
I was a nice guy. I always gave them 15 minutes. :)

Anyone can see from your example why trying to plan for the worst case outlier that could be imagined is a waste of time and resources. As we saw with New Orleans, a lot of large cities have a hard enough time keeping things from spinning out of control on a busy weekend let alone the worst disaster imaginable. I was actually a participant in a tabletop with that kind of EOW scenario. When it came time for me to put in my resource requests, I started out with 50 helicopters. The guy in charge told me that was a ridiculous request since no one could supply 50 helicopters. I told him it wasn't any more ridiculous than his scenario.

I didn't get a sandwich or cookies that day...
Quoting 570. sar2401:

Ah. That's the trouble with believing my memory, but I did remember that Gulf cooled off a lot quicker than usual in late summer. I just think SST's are the one physical thing we can point to now as some kind of indicator, but how it is now may have no relationship to what happens during the season. I'm certain that, all things being equal, hurricanes will start in areas with above normal SST's, but all other things aren't equal, as we've seen basically since 2011. It seems like this all started with those lows in the BOC that looked good for a while then, when they started moving, they hung a left into Mexico and croaked. That was what, 2012? And I think it happened like three times in a row. Assuming my memory is correct, which is not a very good assumption. something started happening right then that hasn't stopped. I remember that low that was right off the coast of Texas last summer that we all got excited about until it just drifted onshore and croaked there too. When's the last time we had an actual hurricane that formed in the Gulf? I was thinking maybe Nate 2011 but that one actually formed in the BOC and was only hurricane because the wind got strong enough on one PEMEX platform so it got reclassified in the reanalysis. Seems like it's been forever.


My guess is those anomalies will make for a good start to the early season. The monsoon trough typically becomes active from late May through June. I think a tropical cyclone will be more likely to form (or at least intensify) underneath that Gulf warm pool if it continues. Late season I dunno.
ESPI now up 91 points in the last 40 days.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.51
Good Morning All. The NWS weather headline for today and short term forecast for Conus:


Increased fire danger Monday for portions of the southern Plains

While the region recently saw rainfall, warmer temperatures immediately afterwards have resulted in sufficient drying to support elevated to critical fire weather threats. Surface winds Monday will increase to 15 to 25 mph across parts of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Humidity values will drop to 8 to 12 percent while temperatures climb to near 80F contributing to increased fire growth. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 23 2015 - 12Z Wed Mar 25 2015

...Heavy precipitation expected across the Pacific Northwest coast...

...A winter storm is forecast to affect the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
on Tuesday/Wednesday...

...Severe weather will be possible over the Ozarks on Tuesday...


The upper pattern setting up across the nation will feature a series of
low-amplitude systems with Pacific air generally being the dominant air
mass moving into the U.S. Throughout the next couple of days, the coldest
air on the map should remain north of the international border with
Canada. An active period of weather is in store for the northwestern
states as a series of impulses track through the region. Enhanced onshore
flow will drag a well-defined plume of moisture inland spreading moderate
to heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. As usual, the most
concentrated activity should be confined to the favored upslope terrain
with the heaviest forecast amounts over the Coastal Ranges and Cascades.
The latest WPC winter weather desk outlook shows the heaviest snowfall
over the Oregon Cascades, Sawtooth, and Tetons where a foot of snow is
expected through Wednesday morning. All of this activity will translate
eastward spreading unsettled conditions to the northern tier.

Before the Pacific system moves toward the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, an area of wintry precipitation is currently advancing through
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Some of the early morning activity has
produced some lightning within the heavier snow bands showing how dynamic
this initial system is. This system should continue migrating eastward
spreading a few inches of snow to Chicago, Illinois before the impulse
aloft weakens by Monday evening across the Ohio Valley. In its wake, there
will be a brief lull before the Pacific energy reaches the Upper Midwest
by Tuesday and into Wednesday. While a majority of the system will produce
rain, enough cold air is expected to loom along the northern tier to
spread snow and ice to Minnesota eastward through the Great Lakes. 4 to 6
inches of snow may be possible along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border
accompanied by accumulating ice.

The other aspect of this system is the potential for severe weather across
the Ozarks. A strong cold front is forecast to march eastward which will
be intercepting copious amounts of Gulf moisture. The latest Storm
Prediction Center forecast suggests severe thunderstorms may be break out
on Tuesday with the activity continuing into the following day.

Elsewhere, a slow-moving frontal boundary will gradually exit the
southeastern U.S. This will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms
with the areal coverage of convection diminishing in time as the system
weakens and moves offshore.


The Charts and look:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic




I just has some very intense rain roll thru. Picked up .36" in 8 minutes.
HRRR models is showing 1.5" to 2" of rain today from Tampa To Orlando with some spots picking up 3". Very very beneficial rain to what has been a hot and dry 3 weeks plus now.
Quoting 559. sar2401:

Rats! Hit the wrong button. In response to your post, Keep, there's no doubt in my mind that a cat 5 making a direct hit on south Florida and the "Big ONe" hitting LA are running neck and neck for the worst disaster, n terms of money and lives, that has ever hit the United States. That's exactly why we don't plan for those. There's no way that any agency or group of agencies can respond to a disaster of that magnitude. If nothing else, all those people who, on a normal day, go out to help you, will now be taking care of their families and neighborhoods. We can plan for something less catastrophic but these end of the world kinds of things are just beyond anything we can do. Anyone who thinks they're going to see emergency responders in less than week is kidding themselves. The one thing we tried to get across to people in California was to get to know their neighbors beforehand and try to come up with a plan to get through something like this. At the very least, have enough food, water, and supplies to help your family make it through seven days completely on your own. If you wait for the government to help, you're going to be dead.


WE are taught to depend on the Govment when there is a disaster, Govment is our friend and our saviour.
The media and politicians teaches us this concept every night at 6 O'clock!
Quoting 549. sar2401:

Since I was responsible for most of them in my department, I kind of liked them too. :-) As you say, a tabletop exercise, especially when it's the first one you've ever held, has to be winnable and leave the participants feeling reasonably good about themselves and their agencies. Having your maiden voyage be a cat 5 plowing right up the center of Tampa Bay is just not a good plan. Having your next period operational plan be "We're all gonna die" is not good. At least they only had to wait four hours before they got sandwiches and cookies though.


I prefer the Functional exercise over the tabletop, it outlines the Gaps in your system more than just a tabletop.
On the tabletops I've experienced, you can keep your mouth shut during the exercise and skate through without anyone knowing your gaps!
We're heading towards a more active period for severe weather (finally). We get a bit of an appetizer for the middle of this week, before winter's last gasp in the 5-10 day range shuts down the severe threat again. After that, as has been speculated on, we likely enter into an above average period of severe weather as we see a complete shift in pattern. As far as I know we still haven't seen a tornado in March. Really rooting for that to hold. Not sure it does though; tomorrow and Wednesday, while not looking like anything overly serious, do hold some potential. Here's the Springfield, MO NWS discussion on tomorrow.

The warm front will be continuing its slow progression northward
through Tuesday morning as the surface low continues its approach
to the region. The area south of the front is expected to be
fairly well capped heading into Tuesday afternoon. This will
become problematic as an area of strong upper level diffluence
moves over the Ozarks and a 40-50kt LLJ starts to move into SW
Missouri.

Instability on the order of around 2000 j/kg of CAPE and steep mid
level lapse rates will develop as well. Despite what may initially
be a rather strongly capped atmosphere, an approaching front/dry
line is expected to be more than sufficient to break the cap
around the 21-23z time frame. Short range models are showing the
potential for discreet storms that may be super-cellular in
nature. The concern with this is that there appears to be ample
helicity (> 200 m2/s2) and low level CAPE from 100-200 j/kg.
Additionally, 0-6Km bulk shear values around 80kts and southerly
winds will be more than enough to produce a rather curvy
hodograph.

All these ingredients add up to the potential for an isolated
tornado or two with the strongest storms that develop. Even if the
storms do not end up producing tornadoes, they will likely be
more than sufficient to produce large damaging hail and strong
straight line winds as the storms will develop rotating updrafts.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We're heading towards a more active period for severe weather (finally). We get a bit of an appetizer for the middle of this week, before winter's last gasp in the 5-10 day range shuts down the severe threat again. After that, as has been speculated on, we likely enter into an above average period of severe weather as we see a complete shift in pattern. As far as I know we still haven't seen a tornado in March. Really rooting for that to hold. Not sure it does though; tomorrow and Wednesday, while not looking like anything overly serious, do hold some potential. Here's the Springfield, MO NWS discussion on tomorrow.

The warm front will be continuing its slow progression northward
through Tuesday morning as the surface low continues its approach
to the region. The area south of the front is expected to be
fairly well capped heading into Tuesday afternoon. This will
become problematic as an area of strong upper level diffluence
moves over the Ozarks and a 40-50kt LLJ starts to move into SW
Missouri.

Instability on the order of around 2000 j/kg of CAPE and steep mid
level lapse rates will develop as well. Despite what may initially
be a rather strongly capped atmosphere, an approaching front/dry
line is expected to be more than sufficient to break the cap
around the 21-23z time frame. Short range models are showing the
potential for discreet storms that may be super-cellular in
nature. The concern with this is that there appears to be ample
helicity (> 200 m2/s2) and low level CAPE from 100-200 j/kg.
Additionally, 0-6Km bulk shear values around 80kts and southerly
winds will be more than enough to produce a rather curvy
hodograph.

All these ingredients add up to the potential for an isolated
tornado or two with the strongest storms that develop. Even if the
storms do not end up producing tornadoes, they will likely be
more than sufficient to produce large damaging hail and strong
straight line winds as the storms will develop rotating updrafts.


Yeah, I've been watching the setup since last week.
First decent setup we've had in a while.
Needs to be watched this week.


Yesterday I posted the Outlook and mentioned the SPC would most likely expand the area. They have done so today for day 3.
Quoting 469. sar2401:

The Algerian Met Service has always done a good job, or at least when the country is not going through upheavals. Tamanraset has always been the best window we've had into the rest of the Sahara but it's just that - a window. It's the Sahel areas from northern Sudan all the way west to northern Mali where there are no reliable ground stations. You can extrapolate some things from the weather Taramasset but that's still a big blank area where we never see any actual observations.

Good morning folks. WU-member ChrisHamburg might be happy today as German weather site "Wetteronline" payed some attention to the rain event in the Sahara with 33mm (1,3 inches) of rain in Tamanrasset yesterday, explaining that it is due to the currently very strong subtropical jet stream which should even get stronger the next days. --- Sar, you may remember that we've talked about another subtropical jet stream event some weeks earlier when the jet advected moist air directly from the Gulf of Guinea, dragging it NNE over the whole Sahara and dumping it with a lot of dust as a Scirocco onto some the Mediterranean countries.




Source.


Source.
*cough*, *cough* --- and the culprit isn't always China ;-)

Paris imposes car restrictions to fight pollution
BBC, 23 March 2015 Last updated at 10:40 GMT
The French authorities have introduced measures to combat a sharp increase in pollution affecting Paris and other cities in northern France.
On Monday the number of cars on the road in Paris will be cut in half - only motorists with odd-numbered plates will be allowed to drive.
Public transportation will be free as well car-sharing and bike-sharing programmes.
Similar measures were put in place last year when pollution soared in Paris.
The city saw a severe spike in smog on Wednesday last week and briefly had the world's dirtiest air, AP news agency reported quoting Plume Labs, a monitoring company.
The mayor's office announced at the weekend that alternating number plate measures would be implemented on Monday, with exceptions for electric or hybrid vehicles as well as emergency vehicles. ...
The April period may produce more chances for some severe weather frontal passages but we will have to see how many more "spring" fronts we get in that period. Depends on what happens when the pattern changes; we will need some cold air coming in over the plains from the Rockies for the classic set-up. However, if we skip Spring in the plains/Delta in April and go right to summer, the best chance for some severe weather might be in the upper mid-west. Also hoping for a quiet end of March regardless in tornado/dixie alley regardless of what April may bring.
East Africa: Floods and droughts ...

Tanzania: Floods Leave Five Dead in Dar, Hundreds Homeless
23 March 2015, By Christopher Majaliwa
THE ongoing heavy rains in Dar es Salaam region have left five people dead and rendered hundreds homeless after their houses were submerged.
Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner, Mr Saidi Meck Sadiki confirmed the number of deaths on Sunday, but said the identity of the deceased was yet to be known.
As the death toll reached five yesterday, Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA), on Sunday announced that heavy rains would continue in various parts of the country until Wednesday.
TMA Director General, Dr Agnes Kijazi, said in an interview with 'Daily News' that heavy rainfall exceeding 50 millimetres in 24 hours should be expected until March, 25.
"We are still expecting theses rains, therefore Tanzanians should continue taking all necessary precautions," she insisted. Last week, the agency listed regions that were likely to experience the downpour as Dar es Salaam, Lindi, Mtwara, Coast and Unguja Island.
According to TMA, the rains are due to the presence and enhancement of the rain making belt over the mentioned areas. The rains wreaked homes, crippling transport, catching Dar es Salaam residents off guard and exposing the country's frail disaster management mechanisms. ...


Wildebeest migration begins three months early
The wildebeest migration, one of the greatest spectacles in the natural world, has begun – three months ahead of schedule
Telegraph, Oliver Smith, March 20, 2015
Safari experts were left “astounded” after hundreds of thousands of wildebeest began arriving in the central areas of the Serengeti this week. The migration typically begins in early summer, but unusually dry conditions in the southern Serengeti have encouraged the animals to head north far earlier than usual.
“It’s one of the earliest sightings on record,” said Bradley Murray, general manager of Singita Faru Faru Lodge on the Grumeti River, in the heart of Tanzania’s Serengeti National Park. “They started passing through the reserve unexpectedly on May 1 last year and we thought that was a big deal - but this is incredible. ...
The herds travel north through the Serengeti and on to Kenya’s Maasai Mara Game Reserve before returning south in early autumn. ..
Quoting 487. StormTrackerScott:


Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice · 5h 5 hours ago

Mega Ridge to build over the Northwest this week with downstream development that supports more cold across the East.

More old news.
To put the current dearth of severe weather in March into perspective; here
is the last "watch" issued for any part of Conus by SPC; about a month ago in Feb:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
.53 at my place in Longwood so far and a lot more coming today. In Altamonte Springs only .21 so far.
Here in Central Illinois this morning a glaze of ice over everything this AM .. looks like maybe an 1/8 of an inch so far this morning ..

Temperature right at 32º here at the house and the Airport setting on 31.8º right now ....
Quoting 594. whitewabit:

Here in Central Illinois this morning a glaze of ice over everything this AM .. looks like maybe an 1/8 of an inch so far this morning ..

Temperature right at 32º here at the house and the Airport setting on 31.8º right now ....

u got a heat wave going there we are at 10.4f chills -5 f
To start the celebration of this week of this great accomplsihment, my favorite blog from Jeff Masters was the El Nino declaration.
by wed we be back near 50f with 18 to 20 mm of rain over 2 days
Link

A link to my Hurricane Week blog. It's very informative.
Mid winter cold here in Maine this morning. 10F with a wind chill of -7F. We will top out about 25F below normal today. Jet stream has been stuck since January and looks to remain stuck for the next two weeks at least.
Link

Nino 3.4 up to 0.6C above average and all Nino regions overall are all positive.
Quoting 593. StormTrackerScott:

.53 at my place in Longwood so far and a lot more coming today. In Altamonte Springs only .21 so far.


You are always the lucky one to get more rain than anyone else in your area. Of the reporting stations in your area on the WunderMap the most anyone has received is KFLLONGW14 who has received .33. I always seem to get less than everyone in my area.
Link
My Severe Weather Blog for Tuesday-Wednesday.
Quoting 565. Dakster:



And the same time a 9.0 undersea Earthquake happens sending a 600 foot wave over across the entire Eastern Seaboard. Not only destroying millions of homes and flooding critical infrastructure areas (like all of D.C.) You now have several nuclear power plants melting down. Reports of armed criminal gangs have been reported as they take over major cities. Widespread looting has also been reported.

While this is happening Russia decides to take advantage of the situation and has just launched a nuclear attack against the United States. They have targeted several large population centers in the middle to western United States.

You have 5 minutes, What is your response?


And...and then American Idol gets canceled!
Quoting 595. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


u got a heat wave going there we are at 10.4f chills -5 f


32.4º F and temp is moving back and forth across the freezing line .. rain changing from rain to sleet / and back and forth .. putting a glaze of ice over everything this morning !!

Hoping the temperature will rise a couple of degrees putting us just in the rain before very long this morning ..
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 23 2015 - 12Z Wed Mar 25 2015

...Heavy precipitation expected across the Pacific Northwest coast...

...A winter storm is forecast to affect the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
on Tuesday/Wednesday...

...Severe weather will be possible over the Ozarks on Tuesday...


The upper pattern setting up across the nation will feature a series of
low-amplitude systems with Pacific air generally being the dominant air
mass moving into the U.S. Throughout the next couple of days, the coldest
air on the map should remain north of the international border with
Canada. An active period of weather is in store for the northwestern
states as a series of impulses track through the region. Enhanced onshore
flow will drag a well-defined plume of moisture inland spreading moderate
to heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. As usual, the most
concentrated activity should be confined to the favored upslope terrain
with the heaviest forecast amounts over the Coastal Ranges and Cascades.
The latest WPC winter weather desk outlook shows the heaviest snowfall
over the Oregon Cascades, Sawtooth, and Tetons where a foot of snow is
expected through Wednesday morning. All of this activity will translate
eastward spreading unsettled conditions to the northern tier.

Before the Pacific system moves toward the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, an area of wintry precipitation is currently advancing through
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Some of the early morning activity has
produced some lightning within the heavier snow bands showing how dynamic
this initial system is. This system should continue migrating eastward
spreading a few inches of snow to Chicago, Illinois before the impulse
aloft weakens by Monday evening across the Ohio Valley. In its wake, there
will be a brief lull before the Pacific energy reaches the Upper Midwest
by Tuesday and into Wednesday. While a majority of the system will produce
rain, enough cold air is expected to loom along the northern tier to
spread snow and ice to Minnesota eastward through the Great Lakes. 4 to 6
inches of snow may be possible along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border
accompanied by accumulating ice.

The other aspect of this system is the potential for severe weather across
the Ozarks. A strong cold front is forecast to march eastward which will
be intercepting copious amounts of Gulf moisture. The latest Storm
Prediction Center forecast suggests severe thunderstorms may be break out
on Tuesday with the activity continuing into the following day.

Elsewhere, a slow-moving frontal boundary will gradually exit the
southeastern U.S. This will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms
with the areal coverage of convection diminishing in time as the system
weakens and moves offshore.


Rubin-Oster

Quoting 601. jrweatherman:



You are always the lucky one to get more rain than anyone else in your area. Of the reporting stations in your area on the WunderMap the most anyone has received is KFLLONGW14 who has received .33. I always seem to get less than everyone in my area.


I’m starting to think some of the PWS’s on the wundermap are faulty/inaccurate. There is a PWS 0.28 miles from my home (as the crow flies), that pretty consistently reports different rainfall amounts than I do from my rain gauge. You’d think being that close, we’d have almost identical rainfall amounts, at least this time of the year. There was one day in February that this particular PWS reported almost a half inch less than me. I’ve also seen some other peculiar rainfall totals reported from other PWS’s in my general area. I often verify my rain totals on COCORAHS, and my totals usually pass the sniff test, so I think my gauge is good.
Can a Brotha get a ENSO and EL NINO update for a Monday?

tia'

: P
Quoting 607. tampabaymatt:



I%u2019m starting to think some of the PWS%u2019s on the wundermap are faulty/inaccurate. There is a PWS 0.28 miles from my home (as the crow flies), that pretty consistently reports different rainfall amounts than I do from my rain gauge. You%u2019d think being that close, we%u2019d have almost identical rainfall amounts, at least this time of the year. There was one day in February that this particular PWS reported almost a half inch less than me. I%u2019ve also seen some other peculiar rainfall totals reported from other PWS%u2019s in my general area. I often verify my rain totals on COCORAHS, and my totals usually pass the sniff test, so I think my gauge is good.

Yeah, only .14" so far in Orlando (officially)
Quoting 609. Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, only .12" so far in Orlando (officially)


It looks like Orlando is about to get hit with a large batch of heavy rain. This line moving south now doesn't seem to have too much heavy stuff left for Tampa.
And here's the view on climate change from Texas governor, Ted Cruz, who has just announced he will run for president.

"Cruz spoke to CNN in an exclusive interview following an event here to promote his new energy plan, which he says he will formally introduce in the Senate next week.

When pressed about the fact that the arctic is melting, and whether that helps prove climate change is real, Cruz dismissed it.

"Other parts are going up. It is not - you know, you always have to be worried about something that is considered a so-called scientific theory that fits every scenario. Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory," argued Cruz.

"I am always troubled by a theory that fits every perfect situation. You know, back in the '70s - I remember the '70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. And then that faded. And then we were told by Al Gore and others there was global warming and that was going to be a big problem. And then it morphed. It wasn't global warming anymore, it became climate change. And the problem with climate change is there's never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing," said Cruz."
Quoting 610. tampabaymatt:



It looks like Orlando is about to get hit with a large batch of heavy rain. This line moving south now doesn't seem to have too much heavy stuff left for Tampa.

Probably be very little left by the time the line gets down here. NWS says a tenth to a quarter inch for us.
Quoting yonzabam:
And here's the view on climate change from Texas governor, Ted Cruz, who has just announced he will run for president.

"Cruz spoke to CNN in an exclusive interview following an event here to promote his new energy plan, which he says he will formally introduce in the Senate next week.

When pressed about the fact that the arctic is melting, and whether that helps prove climate change is real, Cruz dismissed it.

"Other parts are going up. It is not - you know, you always have to be worried about something that is considered a so-called scientific theory that fits every scenario. Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory," argued Cruz.

"I am always troubled by a theory that fits every perfect situation. You know, back in the '70s - I remember the '70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. And then that faded. And then we were told by Al Gore and others there was global warming and that was going to be a big problem. And then it morphed. It wasn't global warming anymore, it became climate change. And the problem with climate change is there's never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing," said Cruz."


Already sent in my absentee ballot to vote for him.
Quoting 611. yonzabam:

And here's the view on climate change from Texas governor, Ted Cruz, who has just announced he will run for president.

"Cruz spoke to CNN in an exclusive interview following an event here to promote his new energy plan, which he says he will formally introduce in the Senate next week.

When pressed about the fact that the arctic is melting, and whether that helps prove climate change is real, Cruz dismissed it.

"Other parts are going up. It is not - you know, you always have to be worried about something that is considered a so-called scientific theory that fits every scenario. Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory," argued Cruz.

"I am always troubled by a theory that fits every perfect situation. You know, back in the '70s - I remember the '70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. And then that faded. And then we were told by Al Gore and others there was global warming and that was going to be a big problem. And then it morphed. It wasn't global warming anymore, it became climate change. And the problem with climate change is there's never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing," said Cruz."



Remainder of the interview follows:

"When pressed further, Senator Cruz remembers that he was a three legged unicorn who wore flower print underpants and was fluent in gobble-dee-gook. "This proves my theory that whatever I choose to recall is fact, no matter what science and reality say to the contrary" the senator quipped".
Quoting yonzabam:
And here's the view on climate change from Texas governor, Ted Cruz, who has just announced he will run for president.

"Cruz spoke to CNN in an exclusive interview following an event here to promote his new energy plan, which he says he will formally introduce in the Senate next week.

When pressed about the fact that the arctic is melting, and whether that helps prove climate change is real, Cruz dismissed it.

"Other parts are going up. It is not - you know, you always have to be worried about something that is considered a so-called scientific theory that fits every scenario. Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory," argued Cruz.

"I am always troubled by a theory that fits every perfect situation. You know, back in the '70s - I remember the '70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. And then that faded. And then we were told by Al Gore and others there was global warming and that was going to be a big problem. And then it morphed. It wasn't global warming anymore, it became climate change. And the problem with climate change is there's never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing," said Cruz."
I'm always hearing about how TC is supposedly The Smartest Man In The Room...but his inane, illogical, and idiotic Gish Gallop of a rant on CNN last week in reference to climate science was one of the stupidest things any real contender for POTUS has ever stated. And that, as anyone's who's watching would have to agree, is saying one hell of lot...
Quoting 611. yonzabam:

And here's the view on climate change from Texas governor, Ted Cruz, who has just announced he will run for president.

"Cruz spoke to CNN in an exclusive interview following an event here to promote his new energy plan, which he says he will formally introduce in the Senate next week.

When pressed about the fact that the arctic is melting, and whether that helps prove climate change is real, Cruz dismissed it.

"Other parts are going up. It is not - you know, you always have to be worried about something that is considered a so-called scientific theory that fits every scenario. Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory," argued Cruz.

"I am always troubled by a theory that fits every perfect situation. You know, back in the '70s - I remember the '70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. And then that faded. And then we were told by Al Gore and others there was global warming and that was going to be a big problem. And then it morphed. It wasn't global warming anymore, it became climate change. And the problem with climate change is there's never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing," said Cruz."


I'm sure many will correct you. Cruz is a first term senator with no serious legislative experience. Typically, he is also one of the 47 senators who signed that letter that violated the Logan Act. (Both Texas senators signed). Abbott is governor, but I totally understand you confusing that due to their ideology.
Quoting 611. yonzabam:



The way I see it is that the problem isn't necessarily whether or not you believe in AGW or its opposite. To me, it's that there is a chronic lack of understanding of the scientific facts. Cruz (as much as I think the guy is a lunatic) makes a point that "denialists" would find very attractive: that a theory can be slanted to meet certain criteria that would cause a layman observer to declare: "look! It's true!"

What should be done by Cruz, denialists, AGW supporters, advocates, scientists, Republicans, and Democrats alike is meet at the common ground - which is the science. No one can deny the climate is changing. Proof is in the pudding, so to speak. It unfortunately makes many anti-AGW supporters sound ignorant. If we can at least undeniably agree that, for example, carbon PPM in the atmosphere is at historic levels, then shouldn't we also undeniably agree that as the species at the very top of the food chain, we should try to mitigate these developments, regardless of whether it's human-caused or otherwise?

Cruz is able to play the semantics game, and he shouldn't be able to. It insults me as an American, a Republican, and a human, which I'm sad to say the party does far too often.
You are always the lucky one to get more rain than anyone else in your area. Of the reporting stations in your area on the WunderMap the most anyone has received is KFLLONGW14 who has received .33. I always seem to get less than everyone in my area.


yep.....i've noticed the ssame.....and in my little bucket at home.....sometimes i get more...sometimes i get less...go figure.......maybe he should play the lottery
619. vis0
Quoting 565. Dakster:



And the same time a 9.0 undersea Earthquake happens sending a 600 foot wave over across the entire Eastern Seaboard. Not only destroying millions of homes and flooding critical infrastructure areas (like all of D.C.) You now have several nuclear power plants melting down. Reports of armed criminal gangs have been reported as they take over major cities. Widespread looting has also been reported.

While this is happening Russia decides to take advantage of the situation and has just launched a nuclear attack against the United States. They have targeted several large population centers in the middle to western United States.

You have 5 minutes, What is your response?
Detonate in a specific timed * angled sequence to adjust that the earthquake that causes such a wave has to be thousands of times "stronger" than 1 bomb. Bombs are submarine introduced nuclear explosions to protect vital US areas. Under water explosions should gbe ~2 times more in distance as waves do the work not the explosion and contamination ios not introduced to the air as much compared to close to surface explosions. Then i'd call underdog or pure polly what her name?
Quoting 615. Neapolitan:

I'm always hearing about how TC is supposedly The Smartest Man In The Room...but his inane, illogical, and idiotic Gish Gallop of a rant on CNN last week in reference to climate science was one of the stupidest things any real contender for POTUS has ever stated. And that, as anyone's who's watching would have to agree, is saying one hell of lot...

TC is a TX senator, not da Gov. I'm surprised you didn't catch that. I'd wager lots of cash that TC's grades were better than BHO's in college. We'll never know tho since BHO will not allow his to released. I wonder why?
nino 1 and 2 has really gone up




all so nino 3 has really gone up





we may be heading for super EL Nino later this year

Finally got some rain today. No flooding, no records, or anything crazy, just some nice beneficial rain. I'm most happy because it will settle the pollen down. Looks like I got about .75.
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


What should be done by Cruz, denialists, AGW supporters, advocates, scientists, Republicans, and Democrats alike is meet at the common ground - which is the science. No one can deny the climate is changing. Proof is in the pudding, so to speak. It unfortunately makes many anti-AGW supporters sound ignorant.
Many have tried to meet at the common ground of science. For years. For decades. But the response is, predictably, almost always a Cruz-like denial of solid scientific evidence, littered with tired half-truths and outright lies. "There is no warming. Scientists can't be trusted. They changed the name when the first didn't stuck." And so on.

Sigh...

If those who don't support climate change theory "sound ignorant", it's only because ignorance (intentional or not) is quite literally the only way to explain the patent dismissal of the mountains of evidence screaming at us both that the planet is warrming, and why.
Quoting 621. Tazmanian:

nino 1 and 2 has really gone up




all so nino 3 has really gone up





we may be heading for super EL Nino later this year


I don't agree with the Super El nino idea, the kelvin wave is not as strong like the one in 1997 or even last year.
Quoting 620. PensacolaDoug:


TC is a TX senator, not da Gov. I'm surprised you didn't catch that. I'd wager lots of cash that TC's grades were better than BHO's in college. We'll never know tho since BHO will not allow his to released. I wonder why?


Could it be that education law in USA requires sealed educational records to be released only to the individual or his/her parent/guardian?

Generally speaking.

I'm no Obama supporter, but I sure as hockey sticks support privacy.
Quoting 620. PensacolaDoug:


TC is a TX senator, not da Gov. I'm surprised you didn't catch that. I'd wager lots of cash that TC's grades were better than BHO's in college. We'll never know tho since BHO will not allow his to released. I wonder why?


College maybe but not law school; BHO was Editor in Chief of the Harvard Law Review...........Basically puts him at 1st in his law school class................He could probably do circles around TC on legal issues. TC is not as smart as he thinks he is; but smarter than the average Congressman.
627. bwi
Quoting 623. Neapolitan:

Many have tried to meet at the common ground of science. For years. For decades. But the response is, predictably, almost always a Cruz-like denial of solid scientific evidence, littered with tired half-truths and outright lies. "There is no warming. Scientists can't be trusted. They changed the name when the first didn't stuck." And so on.

Sigh...

If those who don't support climate change theory "sound ignorant", it's only because ignorance (intentional or not) is quite literally the only way to explain the patent dismissal of the mountains of evidence screaming at us both that the planet is warrming, and why.


The denial industry has cost us 20 years of mitigation and preparation time.
Quoting 621. Tazmanian:

we may be heading for super EL Nino later this year



Only if you trust the most hyperbolic models. And with the spring predictability barrier, no model should be taken at face value anyways. Based on current conditions, a weak to moderate El Nino looks likely.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

TC is a TX senator, not da Gov. I'm surprised you didn't catch that. I'd wager lots of cash that TC's grades were better than BHO's in college. We'll never know tho since BHO will not allow his to released. I wonder why?
You realize this isn't a political forum, so potshots against the President aren't a part of this discussion. We're speaking about Ted Cruz--a man who just announced his candidacy for one of the most powerful offices on the planet--and his utter contempt for both science and scientists. I look forward to hearing anything you have to add to that subject; I'll ignore and flag the purely political stuff, however...
Quoting 607. tampabaymatt:



I’m starting to think some of the PWS’s on the wundermap are faulty/inaccurate. There is a PWS 0.28 miles from my home (as the crow flies), that pretty consistently reports different rainfall amounts than I do from my rain gauge. You’d think being that close, we’d have almost identical rainfall amounts, at least this time of the year. There was one day in February that this particular PWS reported almost a half inch less than me. I’ve also seen some other peculiar rainfall totals reported from other PWS’s in my general area. I often verify my rain totals on COCORAHS, and my totals usually pass the sniff test, so I think my gauge is good.
yeah but, have you ever seen it our rain on one side of the street and not the other?..i sure have many times,its why for my area I take the official rainfall totals with a grain of salt..
Quoting 623. Neapolitan:

Many have tried to meet at the common ground of science. For years. For decades. But the response is, predictably, almost always a Cruz-like denial of solid scientific evidence, littered with tired half-truths and outright lies. "There is no warming. Scientists can't be trusted. They changed the name when the first didn't stuck." And so on.

Sigh...

If those who don't support climate change theory "sound ignorant", it's only because ignorance (intentional or not) is quite literally the only way to explain the patent dismissal of the mountains of evidence screaming at us both that the planet is warrming, and why.


I admit I am late to the "climate change" party, having only really examined the debates and science for a few years now.

Isn't my excuse exactly what Cruz is feeding on? The information simply isn't out there in the "public domain." I certainly know almost nothing about it until I discovered WU, and subsequently sought out the information.
we may be heading for super EL Nino later this year


hey taz...i don't disagree with the evidence that you have shown...however.....here's what is important to note......we've just come away...from an incredible MJO phase....we've had multiple tropical systems in the area....and we had an incredible westerly wind burst....and yet....the values except for region 1/2....are lower than when the events first began....to say at this point we're going to have a super el nino....well.....taz...you're smarter than that....quit trying to rile up the masses bubba :-)
Link


I posted a new entry about the severe weather threat. About time i see some severe weather! It's in my neck of the woods for a change. I want to chase these storms so bad but i can't skip my evening class! I must've displeased the wx gods!
Quoting 526. Jedkins01:

Well we got 0.25 yesterday here and 0.92 this evening so we are up to 2.92 for March, which is still quite a bit below average, however, we had 5.14 in January and 5.70 in February so we are doing alright moisture wise overall.



Spring through mid May is often pretty dry in TLH. My rental garden dried out every year but it had irrigation so, not too bad. Irrigation system sometimes failed though esp in 1986, an extremely dry spring/summer throughout the Southeast (drought broke in FL in June with sea breeze fribts but north of there stayed extremely dry
and there was a green to dead dividing line between TLH and Thomasville GA in July of that year.
Is the Cuban-Canadian Senator from TX still a Canadian citizen?
Quoting 623. Neapolitan:

Many have tried to meet at the common ground of science. For years. For decades. But the response is, predictably, almost always a Cruz-like denial of solid scientific evidence, littered with tired half-truths and outright lies. "There is no warming. Scientists can't be trusted. They changed the name when the first didn't stuck." And so on.

Sigh...

If those who don't support climate change theory "sound ignorant", it's only because ignorance (intentional or not) is quite literally the only way to explain the patent dismissal of the mountains of evidence screaming at us both that the planet is warrming, and why.



Compare it to a sinking boat. It's obvious the boat is sinking but some of the people on board are denying it so they waste their time arguing whether or not it's sinking until it's too late.
Quoting ricderr:
You are always the lucky one to get more rain than anyone else in your area. Of the reporting stations in your area on the WunderMap the most anyone has received is KFLLONGW14 who has received .33. I always seem to get less than everyone in my area.


yep.....i've noticed the ssame.....and in my little bucket at home.....sometimes i get more...sometimes i get less...go figure.......maybe he should play the lottery


I used to play the lottery but got tired of never winning a darn thing. It seems so easy just to match those 6 numbers. The odds gotta be - what, 1/100 to win. Go figure. My rain gauge is always wrong because the damn neighbor's dogs pees in it%uD83D%uDE30
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.53

Link

Quite the turnaround over the last month or so.
speaking of el nino......pat...be careful what you wish for :-).........remember back early last week...the weather porn site of the day....was the MJO and the porn picture was that the mjo was going to head right back to the west pacific....now now...not all said this...in fact...some up and coming bloggers spoke of how this was highly unlikely...but hey....can you blame a blogger when his favorite experts......chimed in with the same weather porn....well...guess what.....once again.....it's being proven...that betting on long range models....is a suckers bet.....not only for bloggers...but for weather experts...that use long range predictions to sell their services......


my new terms in time for this hurricane season....weather porn addicts...and weather prostitutes


I used to play the lottery but got tired of never winning a darn thing. It seems so easy just to match those 6 numbers. The odds gotta be - what, 1/100 to win. Go figure. My rain gauge is always wrong because the damn neighbor's dogs pees in it%uD83D%uDE30

i actually do play the lotto....not because i expect to win...but for a buck...i can spend about ten minutes...going over the taxes.....net spending i would do...and then calculating what my budget could be with the remainder...and no...if my net winnings after taxes and personal planned expenses wasn't over 10 million...i would still work
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.53

Link

Quite the turnaround over the last month or so.



it has jumped tim....but we have to ask....was it do to the natural foces of el nino...or a temporary uptick due to the recent tropical activity in the area...the next two weeks will prove a lot
The Conus jet is pushing in towards the Mid-West (per GFS) so we may actually get the first watches up from SPC by this evening or tomorrow morning for Conus in just under 30 days. But still no watches as of a few minutes ago:



Valid WW Image
Quoting 639. ricderr:

speaking of el nino......pat...be careful what you wish for :-).........remember back early last week...the weather porn site of the day....was the MJO and the porn picture was that the mjo was going to head right back to the west pacific....now now...not all said this...in fact...some up and coming bloggers spoke of how this was highly unlikely...but hey....can you blame a blogger when his favorite experts......chimed in with the same weather porn....well...guess what.....once again.....it's being proven...that betting on long range models....is a suckers bet.....not only for bloggers...but for weather experts...that use long range predictions to sell their services......


my new terms in time for this hurricane season....weather porn addicts...and weather prostitutes



You should change those terms.
Warming across the eastern equatorial Pacific has been significant over the past 7 days as the subsurface warm pool continues to slowly progress eastward and surface. This trend is expected to continue over the next several weeks, erasing claims that the ongoing event will be a Modoki as opposed to a traditional El Nino.

Quoting 642. weathermanwannabe:

The Conus jet is pushing in towards the Mid-West (per GFS) so we may actually get the first watches up from SPC by this evening or tomorrow morning for Conus in just under 30 days. But still no watches as of a few minutes ago:



Valid WW Image



There's a marginal risk today and a slight risk tomorrow and wednesday.
Quoting 645. TimTheWxMan:




There's a marginal risk today and a slight risk tomorrow and wednesday.


Yup; pursuant to the 2 day outlook from this early am. I am sure they are looking closely at the developing dynamics between now and tomorrow to see if they will issue any watches for tomorrow; lot of local NWS weather balloon soundings from this afternoon to digest from these regions this evening. Would not be surprised if they request some early am soundings for tomorrow morning as well so they can fine tune their forecast for tomorrow.
You should change those terms.



yeah...you might be right.......
Quoting 631. LongIslandBeaches:



I admit I am late to the "climate change" party, having only really examined the debates and science for a few years now.

Isn't my excuse exactly what Cruz is feeding on? The information simply isn't out there in the "public domain." I certainly know almost nothing about it until I discovered WU, and subsequently sought out the information.



Sure it is, it's all int he public domain, the media, however, still used the false equivalence mechanism of news reporting. That is where the divide is. Legitimate sources have it plastered everywhere, NOAA, NASA, EPA, academic sites like U of Maine, Yale Climate, Columbia, Cornell all have in depth websites devoted to the topic. The problem is the public has lost it's ability to distinguish between fact and fiction, between blog nonsense and legitimate information.

I'm glad you sought out the information. But it is available everywhere, why do you think there is an organized effort to erase if from the public discourse by eliminating the words global warming and climate change from use in state governments? Or to change the science curriculum to teach climate change as a "debated" topic amongst scientists? Or to fund huge disinformation campaigns complete with real sounding made up groups like the NIPCC and the GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation) and websites with legitimate sounding names like Climate Audit?

Quoting 620. PensacolaDoug:


TC is a TX senator, not da Gov. I'm surprised you didn't catch that. I'd wager lots of cash that TC's grades were better than BHO's in college. We'll never know tho since BHO will not allow his to released. I wonder why?


why would he? presidents or presidential candidates releasing their college grades isn't a thing. we're not talking about tax returns here.

i'm sure O's law school grades were great; harvard doesn't put people with merely-okay grades in charge of the law review.
jrweatherman rulz!!!!!!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 634. georgevandenberghe:




Spring through mid May is often pretty dry in TLH. My rental garden dried out every year but it had irrigation so, not too bad. Irrigation system sometimes failed though esp in 1986, an extremely dry spring/summer throughout the Southeast (drought broke in FL in June with sea breeze fribts but north of there stayed extremely dry
and there was a green to dead dividing line between TLH and Thomasville GA in July of that year.



Well of course drought can happen any time of year, and so can flooding, the drier monthly averages in Tallahassee are:

Oct: 3.23, Nov: 3.50, Dec: 3.90, Apr: 3.06, May: 3.47

The wetter months:

Jan: 4.34, Feb: 4.85, Mar: 5.94, Jun: 7.73, Jul: 7.17, Aug: 7.35, Sep: 4.69











Quoting 620. PensacolaDoug:


TC is a TX senator, not da Gov. I'm surprised you didn't catch that. I'd wager lots of cash that TC's grades were better than BHO's in college. We'll never know tho since BHO will not allow his to released. I wonder why?
Does it matter what grades he got? Most things that come from his mouth are ideological regurgitation. All he does is act counter to the president - noting, it seems, are borne of his ability to think critically. He's scared of things that go bump in the night and he denies scientific fact. He's a blithering idiot.
Quoting 649. Naga5000:



Sure it is, it's all int he public domain, the media, however, still used the false equivalence mechanism of news reporting. That is where the divide is. Legitimate sources have it plastered everywhere, NOAA, NASA, EPA, academic sites like U of Maine, Yale Climate, Columbia, Cornell all have in depth websites devoted to the topic. The problem is the public has lost it's ability to distinguish between fact and fiction, between blog nonsense and legitimate information.

I'm glad you sought out the information. But it is available everywhere, why do you think there is an organized effort to erase if from the public discourse by eliminating the words global warming and climate change from use in state governments? Or to change the science curriculum to teach climate change as a "debated" topic amongst scientists? Or to fund huge disinformation campaigns complete with real sounding made up groups like the NIPCC and the GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation) and websites with legitimate sounding names like Climate Audit?




Your points play well on this and similar sites but that is the end of it. I took the liberty of highlighting some of your post so as to add emphasis to the point that needs to be made....who is delivering the message to the millions of Kim Kardashian Twitter followers and do you for a moment believe that they are interested?
some scientists say we are due for the next ice age.................Link
Quoting 631. LongIslandBeaches:



I admit I am late to the "climate change" party, having only really examined the debates and science for a few years now.

Isn't my excuse exactly what Cruz is feeding on? The information simply isn't out there in the "public domain." I certainly know almost nothing about it until I discovered WU, and subsequently sought out the information.

I hope you don't believe most of the bloggers on here when it comes to climate change