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Strongest MJO Event on Record Boosts El Niño Odds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on March 18, 2015

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, and has many important impacts on weather patterns world-wide. For example, when the area of increased thunderstorms associated with the MJO is located in a particular ocean basin, the odds of tropical cyclone formation increase there. Scientists use the Wheeler-Hendon MJO index to monitor how strong the MJO is, and this week, the amplitude of the MJO set a new all-time record for the strongest MJO event observed since record keeping began in 1974 (with no data available from 3/17/1978-12/31/1978 due to satellite problems). The MJO index hit 4.09 on March 15, 2015, beating the old record of 4.01 set on February 14, 1985.  On March 16, 2015, the MJO index set an even higher mark--4.67. That was likely the peak of this record MJO event, as the MJO index fell to 4.51 on March 17, and is forecast to drop significantly over the coming week. Thanks go to CSU's Phil Klotzbach for alerting me to the MJO record.


Figure 1. Wind flow diagram from March 13, 2015, when counter-rotating tropical cyclones on each side of the Equator in the Pacific created strong westerly winds along the Equator. Image credit: http://earth.nullschool.net/.

This record-strength MJO event began increasing in intensity last week, and aided in the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one on each side of the Equator (an event that tends to happen at least once per year.) The Southern Hemisphere storm that formed was Tropical Cyclone Pam, which intensified to Category 5 strength and devastated the island nation of Vanuatu. The Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Bavi, was not as strong since it had cooler waters to navigate, but still managed to attain peak winds of 60 mph before decaying to a tropical depression this Wednesday. These two tropical cyclones were counter-rotating--the Northern Hemisphere storm spun counter-clockwise, while the Southern Hemisphere storm spun clockwise. As a result of having two counter-rotating storms on either side of the Equator, very strong west-to-east blowing winds formed along the Equator, opposing the usual east-to-west blowing equatorial trade winds. The westerly winds from the counter-rotating tropical cyclones were strong enough and persistent enough that they boosted the odds of the current weak El Niño event staying on through the summer and into fall, since these "westerly wind bursts" tend to move warm water from the Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific (the presence of warmer-than-average water in the Eastern Pacific is needed for an El Niño event to occur.) According to an email I received from University at Albany El Niño expert Paul Roundy, he expects an 80% chance that there will be a strong El Niño late this year, based on the latest model forecasts, and the evolution of the present event--which is being boosted by the current record-strong MJO, and was helped along by the counter-rotating tropical cyclones in the Pacific last week. He cautions, though, that "failure of El Niño could occur this year if sufficient warm water volume is expelled up and down the coasts of the Americas before June, without maintenance of westerly wind burst activity into June (when the equatorial easterly winds typically amplify with the seasonal cycle and bring the cold tongue back.) "


Figure 2. Projections of sea-surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. These forecasts are for August 2015 in terms of departure from average (degrees C), as compiled from eight international climate models and released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in a March 17 update. Each model’s projection on the graph above is based on the average of multiple runs in an ensemble. The threshold for El Niño conditions for Australia is 0.8°C above average, as shown on the chart, while the NOAA threshold (not shown) is 0.5°C. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology .

In a March 17 outlook, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology bumped up their El Nino odds. They stated, "The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015. In the western Pacific, severe Tropical Cyclone Pam and Tropical Storm Bavi straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. All eight international models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology project that water temperatures will increase by August to at least 1.0°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region (see Figure 2), which would suggest at least a moderately strong El Niño event by NOAA’s definition.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is saying that there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015. This outlook was issued before the recent record-strength MJO and counter-rotating Pacific tropical cyclones emerged, so it will interesting to see how their outlook changes in the next update on April 9.

If El Niño is present this fall, it increases the odds that we will have a quiet Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño typically brings high wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, disrupting hurricanes and tropical storms as they try to form or intensify. Conversely, El Niño favors a more active than usual Eastern Pacific hurricane season, by lowering wind shear there and increasing water temperatures. If we get a strong El Niño this winter, it would increase the odds of breaking California's streak of four consecutive dry winters, and put a decent dent in their crippling drought. As we saw this past winter, California can still get low precipitation and drought conditions during a weak El Niño event. If El Niño builds and stays through the summer, warmer waters in the Pacific could lead to a wide-scale coral bleaching event, resulting in massive die-off of coral.

Jeff Masters

Atmospheric Phenomena Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters. It'll be interesting to see if El Nino actually evolves this year instead of faltering like the past several years.
If we do get a strong el nino, and we continue to have dry sinking air in the Atlantic, I might have to lower my forecast to match Bluto's GPA - 0.0
I think Mother Nature has something special for California starting this Fall and not in a good way. I think California could very well make up for lost time next Winter but coming at a hefty price with raging floods and mud slides to boot. All this rain next Winter on ground that has experienced drought for 4 years seems to me this is a disaster in the making. Weather seems to come with a lot more extreme and California we could see the opposite extreme that they are seeing now.
So El Niño could build and it could also fail

"failure of El Niño could occur this year if sufficient warm water volume is expelled up and down the coasts of the Americas before June, without maintenance of westerly wind burst activity into June"
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
So El Niño could build and it could also fail

"failure of El Niño could occur this year if sufficient warm water volume is expelled up and down the coasts of the Americas before June, without maintenance of westerly wind burst activity into June"

Important note to keep in mind

Must remember similar sub surface events have happened last year and failed too
Quoting 1. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Dr. Masters. It'll be interesting to see if El Nino actually evolves this year instead of faltering like the past several years.


It's not TA13 just look at what is already occurring a massive warm up in SST's is ongoing across the Central and Eastern Pacific and this could be on the scale of March and April 1997. Not saying we get a Nino like 1997 but the warm up that is underway seems pretty drastic.

Thanks Dr. What I find most fascinating about this post is the impact of the two Pacific storms in aiding the warm water transport issue in terms of the "ripple" effect. Same type of ripple effect with a Pacific Typhoon occurred last November when it bounced up into the Northern Pacific latitudes toward the pole and caused the jet stream ripple-kink that dropped unseasonable cold temps down into the US and Canada with an early arctic blast. Amazing to me how much the Pacific (whether atmospheric events or ocean currents) impact the weather in North America/Northern Hemisphere).

Same shot I posted of the E-Pac earlier this morning:

thanx doc........of course...don't you hate it when you make a lengthy post,....and after you post it..you see the good doc has updated his blog....from the last blog


SOI is in a free fall right now. ESPI still rising now at .19

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 18 Mar 2015
Average for last 30 days -5.2
Average for last 90 days -7.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -22.2

the daily soi jumped up 12 points yesterday and you state "free fall"....your post....your right to do so...even if not actually factual....as...the daily value in and of itself is subject to many outside influences not directly enso related..

a short SOI primer....the SOI value is a simple mathematical calulation between the pressure differences of the tahitian and darwin regions....it is measured in 30 and 90 day readings...and also a daily value and if you read above they call it the daily contribution to the SOI calculation...there's a reason for that as i will explain in a bit.....and it typically responds to the enso cycle....during an el nino...the 30 day SOI is usually less than -8.0....and in a la nina event it is usually above 8.0

as it is based on air pressure....the daily value is very nosiy....i/e...it can have very large and temporary up and down swings that is not directly related to what is happening in the enso regions....as an example last month the daily value was more than 20....did this mean the enso region was exhibiting signs of a la nina?....no...actually it was a response to a tropical system affecting the darwin area....just as this high negative daily value is a result of tropical activity near the tahitian region....when we focus on the more important and less "noisy" number the 30 day value....it is at -5.2....which as daily numbers rise from the exiting tropical system...so too should rise.....and even as the number sits today....it's value is neutral...neither el nino or la nina
Thanks Doc.

Quoting 236. 882MB:

Nathan you are just one pesky little bug.


Who you calling a bug? -___-

If we do get a strong el nino, and we continue to have dry sinking air in the Atlantic, I might have to lower my forecast to match Bluto's GPA - 0.0



rumor has it that is also the average gpa of UCF meteorolgy majors
This is what is expected to updated on the IRI site by the CPC tomorrow. These models were updated last week and will show up on the IRI site tomorrow. Could very well see the strongest El-Nino since 1997.

You mean STS didnt use the word "El Nino" in his post??? Cmon, thats crazy!
Quoting ricderr:

If we do get a strong el nino, and we continue to have dry sinking air in the Atlantic, I might have to lower my forecast to match Bluto's GPA - 0.0



rumor has it that is also the average gpa of UCF meteorolgy majors


Ta da boom!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's not TA13 just look at what is already occurring a massive warm up in SST's is ongoing across the Central and Eastern Pacific and this could be on the scale of March and April 1997. Not saying we get a Nino like 1997 but the warm up that is underway seems pretty drastic.



You use them charts when it suits you but when it doesn't you don't wanna use it

Anyway it's not warming according to more legitimate charts
MJO reloads for another run in a couple weeks. You can tell the atmosphere is strongly favoring El-Nino to persist and strengthen going forward.



I think this hurricane season will start early and active early and end on time and inactive ending
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:



It's not TA13 just look at what is already occurring a massive warm up in SST's is ongoing across the Central and Eastern Pacific and this could be on the scale of March and April 1997. Not saying we get a Nino like 1997 but the warm up that is underway seems pretty drastic.



I am aware of the warming we've seen over the past week and are likely to see over the next few weeks. I'm most concerned about a reduction in westerly winds later in the year like we saw last spring.

Quoting 14. wunderkidcayman:



You use them charts when it suits you but when it doesn't you don't wanna use it

Anyway it's not warming according to more legitimate charts

This is the definition of irony if I've ever seen one.
on the local front......yesterday was wet and so far this morning we've seen heavy mist.......officially at the airport we've received .41 inches so far with more expected today through saturday........it doesn't sound like much and for most parts of the country it isn't...but our average march rainfall is .28 inches so we've eclipsed that soundly
Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I am aware of the warming we've seen over the past week and are likely to see over the next few weeks. I'm most concerned about a reduction in westerly winds later in the year like we saw last spring.


This is the definition of irony if I've ever seen one.


Your right TA13, about the westerly winds persisting. that is the big unknown and is the reason why the models go from 1C on some to 2C on others.
21. JRRP
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 6 hHace 6 horas
Entire atlantic picture now showing end game of warm cycle..warm water in western atlantic, ring of cold east/tropics
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Your right TA13, about the westerly winds persisting.

It depends if it last through June

Wet weather forecast for parts of southern, western U.S., winter weather returns to parts of northern U.S.

Wet weather is expected across parts of the southern and western U.S. on Wednesday, with rain and thunderstorms forecast from Texas across the Mississippi Valley & Southeast, as well as the Great Basin & Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, winter weather returns to parts of the northern U.S., with snow possible across parts of the northern Plains & Intermountain West, as well as parts of the Northeast. 


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 18 2015 - 12Z Fri Mar 20 2015

...Cool and relatively dry across the Great Lakes and Northeast...
...Wet weather constrained mostly to the West and South...

The general flow pattern is mainly a zonal (or west-to-east oriented) one,
which brings Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest with higher
elevation snows as a disturbance aloft moved through. Once the system
crosses the northern Rockies, precipitation becomes harder to come by due
to a dry downsloped flow off the higher terrain, with precipitation areas
decreasing in coverage as they enter the northern Plains by Thursday
morning. Across the Northeast, northwesterly flow in the wake of a storm
moving by Atlantic Canada should keep conditions cooler than average over
the next couple of days.

Across the Southern tier of the country, a developing upper level low
across northwest Mexico brings its strengthening pocket of cold air aloft
and resultant increasing atmospheric instability across the Mojave Desert
and the Southwest, causing afternoon and evening thunderstorms late
Thursday, particularly in the proximity of mountains. The system draws
Pacific moisture aloft across Mexico into the southern Plains, with a
return flow off the Gulf of Mexico closer to the surface invading the Gulf
coast. This pattern leads to a broadening area of thunderstorms
stretching nearly from coast to coast from southern California across the
Red River of the South through the Southeast by late Thursday.
Thunderstorms across Texas and the Southeast are capable of producing
locally heavy rains over the next couple of days.



Chart Recap of Current Conus Conditions:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic

Good Morning El Niño and Everyone! :D
...its da Mojo rising'

Jim Morrison
This is the definition of irony if I've ever seen one.

i try to be funny...but others do it well without even trying
If El Niño builds and stays through the summer, warmer waters in the Pacific could lead to a wide-scale coral bleaching event, resulting in massive die-off of coral.

I HATE El Nino.
Cool image showing what's left of the ice on the Great Lakes.
But we could still get one despite EL NINO... :-)

31. JRRP
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2 hHace 2 horas
Another reason this year's Nino is "ill-behaved." Where is the subtropical jet? March Ninos have it. We have opposite
Today is the 90th anniversary of the great Tri-State Tornado (most intense tornado/s ever recoreded). I'm surprised no mention of it here.
33. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:
But we could still get one despite EL NINO... :-)


or this

Quoting CaribBoy:
If El Niño builds and stays through the summer, warmer waters in the Pacific could lead to a wide-scale coral bleaching event, resulting in massive die-off of coral.

I HATE El Nino.



i love it
Quoting 30. CaribBoy:

But we could still get one despite EL NINO... :-)




Not if its .........

Quoting JayMcKenzie:
Today is the 90th anniversary of the great Tri-State Tornado (most intense tornado/s ever recoreded). I'm surprised no mention of it here.


Only Gro was around back then to remember it.
Quoting CaribBoy:
But we could still get one despite EL NINO... :-)



Wishcasting already I see.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


You use them charts when it suits you but when it doesn't you don't wanna use it

Anyway it's not warming according to more legitimate charts


I gotta laugh at that one. Let me go find the one chart that shows something in the NW Caribbean:)
EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA Update
News
16 March 2015
Since late October 2014, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have remained at near-borderline to weak El Niño levels. However, many atmospheric features of El Niño have displayed only weak or short-lived responses to the warming. For example, the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall anomalies has not been well defined. Models and expert opinion suggest a continuation of warm-neutral to weak El Niño conditions through April and May of 2015.

Most models suggest tropical Pacific temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds toward the middle of the year. However, many models currently show a substantial spread in their outlooks for tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, consistent with the known period of lower skill in longer lead predictions made at this time of year. This spread indicates that a range of outcomes remain possible, from neutral to a substantial El Niño event. This spread will narrow in the coming months as skill levels increase. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean conditions for further El Niño developments, and will assess the most likely local impacts.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Wishcasting already I see.


10 years since we've had a major storm hit Florida. So El-Nino or no El-Nino we're bound to get a storm real soon.

I can't see us going more than 1-2 more years without another major storm affecting the state.
Years Of Failed El Niño Forecasts” …”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”!
Spiegel: NOAA “Embarrassment” Over “Four Years Of Failed El Niño Forecasts” …”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”!
By P Gosselin on 13. March 2015
We keep hearing that the climate and weather forecasting tools are gaining in sophistication, and correspondingly in reliability. Climate model simulators claim to be able to see decades, even centuries, into the future!

Yet Spiegel Science journalist Axel Bojanowski has an analysis here which looks at the recent spate of failed El Niño predictions by the NOAA, and shows that these forecasting tools are still terribly lacking. His latest piece: “Change in global weather: El Niño embarrasses meteorologists“. (Here I’m not sure why Bojanowski (or his editors) chose the term ‘meteorologists’ because much of the work is arguably done by climate scientists.)

It is an accepted fact that the El Niño cyclic changes in the equatorial Pacific surface temperatures have major impacts on the global weather, especially the northern hemisphere. Thus it would be useful if scientists were able to predict them with some degree of rough accuracy.

Unfortunately accuracy is still a long way off as forecasters falsely predicted an El Niño four years long, and only now has it finally begun to take hold. Bojanowski writes:

Seldom have meteorologists been made to look so foolish. Four years long they published the same prognosis: Soon an El Niño would be taking hold in the Pacific.”

The Spiegel journalist describes how last June experts were “80% sure” a powerful El Niño was in the works, and how in 2013 “a peer-reviewed paper in a well known science journal” boasted of new forecasting methods for El Niños. Sadly, these experts aren’t anywhere near getting it right. So, as a result, Bojanowski writes, they have recently become “considerably more cautious” with their forecasts. Embarrassment does that.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Only Gro was around back then to remember it.


"Tri-State Tornado (most intense tornado/s ever recoreded)."

I was under the impression the May 3rd, 1999 Moore, Oklahoma tornado was the strongest tornado on record. We'll at least the strongest recorded wind speed (doopler recorded - 300+mph)

That's not to say there haven't been stronger tornadoes. They've just never been officially measured.
Here is an interesting fact, since the name "Ana" was first introduced in 1979, never has it achieved hurricane status.

1979 TS Ana: The system was the first tropical cyclone to develop east of the Lesser Antilles in June since the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.



1985 TS Ana: In the second week of July, an area of convection merged with a cut-off low pressure area, which developed on July 8. After about 7 days, ship data indicated that a circulation developed on July 15.



1991 TS Ana: The first storm of the season was Ana, which originated from a cold-core low that persisted east of Jacksonville, Florida by June 25. With an anticyclone located over Florida, The system moved in a clockwise motion around an anticyclone located over Florida. The cold-core low gradually developed to the surface, and on June 29, a low pressure area formed within a surface trough over the Bahamas.



1997 TS Ana: A frontal low pressure system off the coast of South Carolina developed into Tropical Depression One at 1200 UTC on June 30.



2003 TS Ana: was the only tropical cyclone on record in the North Atlantic basin to exist in the month of April. The formation of Ana marked the fifth earliest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since reliable records began in 1851. The first tropical cyclone of the 2003 season, it developed as a subtropical cyclone from a non-tropical low on April 20 to the west of Bermuda.



2009 TS Ana: was the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season and the first tropical cyclone to impact the Caribbean islands during 2009. Forming out of an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave on August 11, Ana briefly attained tropical storm intensity on August 12 before weakening back to a depression.



Looking forward to the start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the first name of the season, will Ana break the trend and finally become a hurricane for the first time?
Quoting 40. Sfloridacat5:



10 years since we've had a major storm hit Florida. So El-Nino or no El-Nino we're bound to get a storm real soon.

I can't see us going more than 1-2 more years without another major storm affecting the state.


Wow, very great and detailed update. Thanks Dr. Masters!!
Flagged

Stop Ya foolishness



oh god....have we started announcing that we're flagging posts again...i thought we had outgrown that....reminds me of our 8 year old...time for me to take a break from here for awhile....poker calls and doesn't stink as bad
Quoting 40. Sfloridacat5:



10 years since we've had a major storm hit Florida. So El-Nino or no El-Nino we're bound to get a storm real soon.

I can't see us going more than 1-2 more years without another major storm affecting the state.
its something we do NOT wish for here.
Quoting 41. ricderr:

Years Of Failed El Niño Forecasts” …”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”!
Spiegel: NOAA “Embarrassment” Over “Four Years Of Failed El Niño Forecasts” …”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”!
By P Gosselin on 13. March 2015
We keep hearing that the climate and weather forecasting tools are gaining in sophistication, and correspondingly in reliability. Climate model simulators claim to be able to see decades, even centuries, into the future!

Yet Spiegel Science journalist Axel Bojanowski has an analysis here which looks at the recent spate of failed El Niño predictions by the NOAA, and shows that these forecasting tools are still terribly lacking. His latest piece: “Change in global weather: El Niño embarrasses meteorologists“. (Here I’m not sure why Bojanowski (or his editors) chose the term ‘meteorologists’ because much of the work is arguably done by climate scientists.)

It is an accepted fact that the El Niño cyclic changes in the equatorial Pacific surface temperatures have major impacts on the global weather, especially the northern hemisphere. Thus it would be useful if scientists were able to predict them with some degree of rough accuracy.

Unfortunately accuracy is still a long way off as forecasters falsely predicted an El Niño four years long, and only now has it finally begun to take hold. Bojanowski writes:

Seldom have meteorologists been made to look so foolish. Four years long they published the same prognosis: Soon an El Niño would be taking hold in the Pacific.”

The Spiegel journalist describes how last June experts were “80% sure” a powerful El Niño was in the works, and how in 2013 “a peer-reviewed paper in a well known science journal” boasted of new forecasting methods for El Niños. Sadly, these experts aren’t anywhere near getting it right. So, as a result, Bojanowski writes, they have recently become “considerably more cautious” with their forecasts. Embarrassment does that.


I've always been amazed at the lack of (working) buoys in the gulf and around Florida...heck there are NO buoys off the SE coast of Fl. and very sparse everywhere else. For a state with 5 million boaters you would think we would have reliable buoys every 50 miles or so.
There are plenty more embarrasments where that came from....without a doubt.
Quoting 31. JRRP:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2 hHace 2 horas
Another reason this year's Nino is "ill-behaved." Where is the subtropical jet? March Ninos have it. We have opposite


Michael Ventrice said the first half of March would look more like La-Nina then switch to a more El-Nino type look at the end of March into April so the pattern will be changing soon.
Question for you meteorological gurus: The severe weather convective outlook for today says "However...marginal lapse rates should keep any convection below severe limits this afternoon across the lower MS
valley."

What does the term "lapse rate" mean?
Quoting 51. westernmob:

Question for you meteorological gurus: The severe weather convective outlook for today says "However...marginal lapse rates should keep any convection below severe limits this afternoon across the lower MS
valley."

What does the term "lapse rate" mean?

The basic definition is the temperature differential as height increases; the faster the temps decrease with height, the "steeper" the lapse rate and more instability in the atmosphere.  Basically a real big boom when real cold air collides with warmer air as we might see during Spring severe seasons with the cooler air masses from the Rockies cross the plains and collide with the warm Gulf flow.

Quoting LargoFl:
its something we do NOT wish for here.


I lived just S.W. of Oklahoma City off May Av. near 134th street when I was in my teens to early 20s. I graduated from Moore High School.

Find 134th street in S.W. Oklahoma City just west of Moore (turns into 4th street in Moore). That's where I used to live.
Thank God, I moved out of that area.

Damage Path of the last two major tornadoes go through that area.






Quoting Sfloridacat5:


10 years since we've had a major storm hit Florida. So El-Nino or no El-Nino we're bound to get a storm real soon.

I can't see us going more than 1-2 more years without another major storm affecting the state.


I agree. I hate the phrase overdue but history is against us.
Also, the Conus jet, if positioned over a front (helping drive the front or embedded along with the frontal boundry) can really help infuse some of that cold sinking air into the warmer air mass at the surface. Looking at the current GFS 300mb chart, the Conus jet is not positioned right over the lower MS valley (except for that little arm right over the Gulf coast) supporting the notion that SPC is not expecting severe limits (organized severe weather) today:

Apologies for the double-post;
Moore Elementary School that was full of children when the tornado hit.
Dozens of cars piled up on top of each other in the parking lot of Moore Hospital

Hard to imagine the strength of the wind needed to do this.




Quoting 41. ricderr:


Speaking of science denier P Gosselin...

In five years from now, according to Pierre Gosselin, the temperature will drop to 2.5 degrees Celsius below that at the beginning of the 20th century.

Here is what Pierre's prediction looks like:

Deadliest tornado outbreaks in history

Beginning with the Tri State Tornadoes, March 18, 1925

KILLER STORMS: THE DEADLIEST TORNADOES IN U.S. HISTORY
695 deaths. March 18, 1925, in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.
The tri-state tornado remains the deadliest in U.S. history.
It crossed from southeastern Missouri, through southern Illinois and then into southwestern Indiana. The tornado carried sheets of iron as far as 50miles away and obliterated entire towns and injured more than 2,000 people.

216 deaths. April 5, 1936, in Tupelo, Mississippi

203 deaths. April 6, 1936, in Gainesville, Georgia
The tornado outbreak over two days caused millions of dollars%u2019 worth of damage across the region. The Tupelo tornado destroyed more than 200 homes, sweeping many into Gum Pond along with the residents. It killed whole families, including one of 13. The following day the Gainesville tornado - a double tornado event - emerged. It destroyed the Cooper Pants Factory, killing 70 workers - the highest tornado death toll from a single building in U.S. history.

181 deaths. April 9, 1947, in Woodward, Oklahoma
The Woodward tornado is the most deadly to ever strike the state of Oklahoma. It was almost two miles wide and traveled for 100 miles at speeds of up to 50 miles per hour.
More than 100 blocks in Woodward were levelled and over 1,000 homes and businesses destroyed.

158 deaths. May 22, 2011, in Joplin, Missouri
The one-mile wide tornado was the third to strike the town of Joplin since 1971. More than 1,000 people were injured and almost $3billion worth of damage was caused. Local media reported that more than half of the 158 who died were killed inside their homes.

143 deaths. April 24, 1908, in Amite, Louisiana, and Purvis, Mississippi
Most of the people killed were in rural areas.
Many historians believe the death toll was higher than official records state as many the deaths of many African-American may not have been properly recorded. Both the Amite and Purvis tornadoes were rated as F4 - the second strongest possible - and injured hundreds of people.

116 deaths. June 8, 1953, in Flint, Michigan
It is the deadliest tornado to strike Michigan and injured more than 800 people. The Flint tornado, which traveled at speeds of 35mph, is rated as a F5 on the Fujita scale - the strongest possible. Of the 116 people killed, all but three died on a four-mile stretch of Coldwater Road.

114 deaths. May 11, 1953 in Waco, Texas
The Waco tornado killed 22 people as it destroyed the packed Dennis Building and a 12 died in cars crushed in the street.
Almost 200 businesses and factories were destroyed, causing $41.2million worth of damage. The deadly tornado spurred the development of a nationwide severe weather warnings system.

114 deaths. May 18, 1902 in Goliad, Texas
The tornado leveled churches, as well as more than 200 homes and businesses. Of those killed, 50 people died as they sought shelter in a black Methodist church in Goliad.

103 deaths. March 23, 1913, in Omaha, Nebraska
The tornado struck on Easter Sunday at about 6pm, with little or no warning. It was so strong that steel train cars were later found pierced by pieces of debris from destroyed houses.

Awesome images and video of the Moore Oklahoma Tornado and associated stories can be found here.
Link

Quoting ricderr:
Flagged

Stop Ya foolishness



oh god....have we started announcing that we're flagging posts again...i thought we had outgrown that....reminds me of our 8 year old...time for me to take a break from here for awhile....poker calls and doesn't stink as bad


I was just messing with him as he was with sts.
62. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
SUBJECT:: ...Arklatex
D&T:: 201503-18;1000UTC till 201503-18;1445UTC (every Hr)


on a blog related note, i want sar2401 to administer a full battery of tests  on El Niño, and ask him where he been, you sar24012 play the bad cop STS plays the good cop   ..: - P
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:




South Florida is well over due for a "hurricane", but we still have a few more years to reach our "major" hurricane strike frequency average based on that map.
Date of Hurricanes affecting the Florida Keys (1900s).

Based on this link the Keys have been affected by 21 Hurricanes in the past 114 years (an average of 1 hurricane every 5.4 years)
Link

1906
1909
1910
1919
1926
1929
1935
1945
1947
1948
1950
1960
1964
1965
1966
1972
1987
1992
1998
1999
I added 2005 (Wilma)
(Katrina, Ike, and Charley) could also be added.
65. vis0
CREDIT:: NullSchool, filters yours truly's FunkTopGal #16.
MY colour KEY::(not scientifically accurate)::



http://youtu.be/PH-xQIBB9-A (1150x748) [wx20150307_15swPAC]


http://youtu.be/gV80yT8cChU (1178x668) [wx20150307_13SouthernAtlantic]


Quoting Sfloridacat5:


South Florida is well over due for a "hurricane", but we still have a few more years to reach our "major" hurricane strike frequency average based on that map.


The utter lack of any hurricane (>65 knots) landfalls in the state of Florida is unprecedented as far as I can find. I think the longest gap before that is only five seasons, 1980-84. Fay in 2008 was the closest thing to a hurricane to impact Florida since 2005.
Quoting 64. Sfloridacat5:

Date of Hurricanes affecting the Florida Keys (1900s).

Based on this link the Keys have been affected by 21 Hurricanes in the past 114 years (an average of 1 hurricane every 5.4 years)
Link

1906
1909
1910
1919
1926
1929
1935
1945
1947
1948
1950
1960
1964
1965
1966
1972
1987
1992
1998
1999
I added 2005 (Wilma)


What about Ike?
Anyway

Quoting ricderr:
Years Of Failed El Niño Forecasts” …”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”!
Spiegel: NOAA “Embarrassment” Over “Four Years Of Failed El Niño Forecasts” …”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”!
By P Gosselin on 13. March 2015
We keep hearing that the climate and weather forecasting tools are gaining in sophistication, and correspondingly in reliability. Climate model simulators claim to be able to see decades, even centuries, into the future!

Yet Spiegel Science journalist Axel Bojanowski has an analysis here which looks at the recent spate of failed El Niño predictions by the NOAA, and shows that these forecasting tools are still terribly lacking. His latest piece: “Change in global weather: El Niño embarrasses meteorologists“. (Here I’m not sure why Bojanowski (or his editors) chose the term ‘meteorologists’ because much of the work is arguably done by climate scientists.)

It is an accepted fact that the El Niño cyclic changes in the equatorial Pacific surface temperatures have major impacts on the global weather, especially the northern hemisphere. Thus it would be useful if scientists were able to predict them with some degree of rough accuracy.

Unfortunately accuracy is still a long way off as forecasters falsely predicted an El Niño four years long, and only now has it finally begun to take hold. Bojanowski writes:

Seldom have meteorologists been made to look so foolish. Four years long they published the same prognosis: Soon an El Niño would be taking hold in the Pacific.”

The Spiegel journalist describes how last June experts were “80% sure” a powerful El Niño was in the works, and how in 2013 “a peer-reviewed paper in a well known science journal” boasted of new forecasting methods for El Niños. Sadly, these experts aren’t anywhere near getting it right. So, as a result, Bojanowski writes, they have recently become “considerably more cautious” with their forecasts. Embarrassment does that.


Why am I not surprised
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The utter lack of any hurricane (>65 knots) landfalls in the state of Florida is unprecedented as far as I can find. I think the longest gap before that is only five seasons, 1980-84. Fay in 2008 was the closest thing to a hurricane to impact Florida since 2005.


I've live in Pinellas County for most of the past 50 years. The best of my recollection is that I've expericed hurricane force winds or gusts just a few times: Alma 1966, Gladys 1968, Elena 1985, Jeanne 2004. I've never seen cat2 winds in the bay area. We have been lucky- that's for sure.
Quoting wxgeek723:


What about Ike?


Even though the Keys did see some effects from Ike, I think it was too far south of the Keys to count on the list.
Quoting 40. Sfloridacat5:



10 years since we've had a major storm hit Florida. So El-Nino or no El-Nino we're bound to get a storm real soon.

I can't see us going more than 1-2 more years without another major storm affecting the state.

Same here
Quoting 66. CybrTeddy:



The utter lack of any hurricane (>65 knots) landfalls in the state of Florida is unprecedented as far as I can find. I think the longest gap before that is only five seasons, 1980-84. Fay in 2008 was the closest thing to a hurricane to impact Florida since 2005.

And Beryl 2012. Almost a hurricane.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

@JimCantore The only index that never showed Nino last year was CPC's 3-month agg version! Need a better definition




A very warm March continues across Tampa. Through March 17th, Tampa is over 7 degrees above average for the month. Very warm and dry here.
SST anomalies in 2009 across the globe were quite unfavorable with a very hostile E. Hemisphere. Yet despite that, we had a strong El Nino for 2009/10!

March 1908 Category 2

Hurricane Charley in 2004 also came pretty close to Key West.
Quoting 75. weatherbro:

SST anomalies in 2009 across the globe were quite unfavorable with a very hostile E. Hemisphere. Yet despite that, we had a strong El Nino for 2009/10!




Models weren't even that bullish in 2009 as they are this year either.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

@JimCantore The only index that never showed Nino last year was CPC's 3-month agg version! Need a better definition



guess he also forgot about the SOI......he does better when he's trying to show us how brave he is by standing outside 50 miles away from the actual storm

Weak el Nino years

1952-53
1953-54
1958-59
1969-70
1976-77
1977-78
2004-05
2006-2007
Quoting ricderr:
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

@JimCantore The only index that never showed Nino last year was CPC's 3-month agg version! Need a better definition



guess he also forgot about the SOI......he does better when he's trying to show us how brave he is by standing outside 50 miles away from the actual storm



Yesterday, Mike Bettes, a meteorologist on TWC was discussing how the U.S. weather hasn't been acting like we're in an El-Nino.

Anyone else see it? He showed several seasonal weather maps of the weather we've been having across the U.S.
This is a visualization of sea surface temperatures in 2005. Interesting video.

Link
Informative post, Jeff, thanks.
As mentioned, companion cross-equatorial TC events tend to happen at least once per year.
For a striking similarity, put these two links from Earth.nullschool in a browser window for comparison - Mar 12 2015… and last year / same date, Mar 12 2014.
The stronger S Hemi system then was TC Lusi, in nearly same region as TC Pam. I believe the weaker northern counterpart later became TD 04W into the Philippines. Clearly, both 2015 systems were stronger TC's - just interesting to see what was occurring on same date, year apart.
Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:



Yesterday, Mike Bettes, a meteorologist on TWC was discussing how the U.S. weather hasn't been acting like we're in an El-Nino.

Anyone else see it? He showed several seasonal weather maps of the weather we've been having across the U.S.


He's right the last several weeks have in a La-Nina like state however this was brought up by some experts who have said the first half of March would resemble La-Nina only to give way to more of a El-Nino type pattern to end out March going into April.
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

@JimCantore The only index that never showed Nino last year was CPC's 3-month agg version! Need a better definition



I don't get it.
Quoting Grothar:
Weak el Nino years

1952-53
1953-54
1958-59
1969-70
1976-77
1977-78
2004-05
2006-2007


Hmm most of those years had early pre season storms
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


He's right the last several weeks have in a La-Nina like state however this was brought up by some experts who have said the first half of March would resemble La-Nina only to give way to more of a El-Nino type pattern to end out March going into April.


Hopefully the rain maker gets going soon.



Quoting 64. Sfloridacat5:

Date of Hurricanes affecting the Florida Keys (1900s).

Based on this link the Keys have been affected by 21 Hurricanes in the past 114 years (an average of 1 hurricane every 5.4 years)
Link

1906
1909
1910
1919
1926
1929
1935
1945
1947
1948
1950
1960
1964
1965
1966
1972
1987
1992
1998
1999
I added 2005 (Wilma)


I can assure you that we have "Been affected" by quite a few more. Katrina, Charley and Ike and a few others the names of which I don't recall off the top of my head brought some pretty nasty weather our way.



Quoting Grothar:
This is a visualization of sea surface temperatures in 2005. Interesting video.

Link


Anyone have one for 2004
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully the rain maker gets going soon.


Not according to the GFS.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Not according to the GFS.


Then maybe I can break my 33 days with no rain record.
Only 16 days to go.
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully the rain maker gets going soon.


We could see some strong thunderstorms favoring the E C FL & NE FL tomorrow. Storm motion will be SE so storms that fire in N FL will likely fire down the East Coast seabreeze as it pushes inland tomorrow afternoon. Then chances go up again Sunday Night then off and on all next week. Again just chances nothing to get to excited about but atleast its something.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


He's right the last several weeks have in a La-Nina like state however this was brought up by some experts who have said the first half of March would resemble La-Nina only to give way to more of a El-Nino type pattern to end out March going into April.


Yeah, next week gonna be much cooler across Florida. Sick of these 80's and 90's(though yesterday I didn't mind it since dewpoints were in the 50's).
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:



We could see some strong thunderstorms favoring the E C FL & NE FL tomorrow. Storm motion will be SE so storms that fire in N FL will likely fire down the East Coast seabreeze as it pushes inland tomorrow afternoon. Then chances go up again Sunday Night then off and on all next week. Again just chances nothing to get to excited about but atleast its something.


Local mets were talking about the possibility of severe thunderstorms in NE FL tomorrow. Very dry here so far in March.
Up to 3 inches of snow is possible here in N.W D.C Friday.....Models are coming in colder and faster with the precipitation.Well this is convenient (sarcasm)...
The snowiest period over much of the region should be between about 6 and 10 a.m., when there is the best chance for some accumulation
Quoting 90. tampabaymatt:



Not according to the GFS.


GFS is likely suffering from something as there will be some rain around next week. Don't expect it to be as dry as the GFS is showing come next week as there will some chances of rain off and on next week.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I think they stopped making that list in 1999. That's why Charley, Ike, and Katrina are not on the list.
That would be 24 in 114 years or (1 every 4.75 years)
Okay winter..you can leave now...

Because I must mention it, some models are suggesting more snow potential early next week! This winter does not want to end. More on that possibility to come….
Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:



GFS is likely suffering from something as there will be some rain around next week. Don't expect it to be as dry as the GFS is showing come next week as there will some chances of rain off and on next week.


Let's hope that's the case. And yes, the GFS is totally unreliable when it comes to rainfall totals in FL. I wonder if it will be showing phantom Cat 2s hitting Tampa all hurricane season again this year.
Quoting 94. tampabaymatt:



Local mets were talking about the possibility of severe thunderstorms in NE FL tomorrow. Very dry here so far in March.


Yes, the high resolution models looks pretty robust across the eastern side of FL tomorrow with 70 degree dewpoints in place but what is strange these same models have dewpoints only near 60 across SW FL. Strange.
Quoting 86. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm most of those years had early pre season storms
This year could be very slow for our area. :(
Quoting 99. tampabaymatt:



Let's hope that's the case. And yes, the GFS is totally unreliable when it comes to rainfall totals in FL. I wonder if it will be showing phantom Cat 2s hitting Tampa all hurricane season again this year.


Yup probably starting in May.
Quoting 101. Gearsts:

This year could be very slow our area. :(


Kiss of death infact. This is about as worse as it gets.

Looking like the current rains spreading into the Delta/Mid-West will not help with reduction of the current flooding in several rivers; the rain is headed right at the current flood areas:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Kiss of death infact. This is about as worse as it gets.


Yeah keep dreaming Scott

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Kiss of death infact. This is about as worse as it gets.



When does that seasonal forecast start?
Just wondering because there's been all that activity lately north and east of Australia.
107. xcool
after 2008 hurricane season have being dead imo
So cute!
Quoting 59. Xandra:


Speaking of science denier P Gosselin...

In five years from now, according to Pierre Gosselin, the temperature will drop to 2.5 degrees Celsius below that at the beginning of the 20th century.

Here is what Pierre's prediction looks like:



How much heat would have to be removed from the oceans to get to that figure exactly?? I imagine the value in Joules would be many, many digits long.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yeah keep dreaming Scott



Look I'm sayin it will not be dead this year but it's likely not gonna be active like what we had back in 2010-2012 either
But I think this year its likely to be a high impact year
Unlike what we had from 2006,2013-2014
Quoting 105. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah keep dreaming Scott


Well with the SST setup we have i don't expect more for the atlantic.
Should be a slow season with some weak Subtropical cyclones like 2012.
Quoting 107. xcool:

after 2008 hurricane season have being dead imo

2010 was dead? 2011 was dead? 2012 was dead?

Quoting 108. Gearsts:

So cute!


Nathan has been the perfect example of why forecasting the intensity of small storms is so hard. It was rapidly intensifying this morning, but as the loop shows, that came to a screeching halt. It looks like dry air may have only temporarily got ingested, but it was enough to do a number on the inner core.

Quoting 103. StormTrackerScott:



Kiss of death infact. This is about as worse as it gets.



On the bright side, a combination of +PDO and +ENSO should contribute to yet another hyperactive Pacific hurricane season. Those that focus solely on the Atlantic should broaden their choices; it's a lot more fun. :)
Cold and windy here in the Northeast today. Looks like Boston may pad its snow record a little on Friday. ICYMI, here's my 2015 hurricane season forecast, which I posted yesterday.

Link

In terms of what land areas may be most at risk this year, since that seems to be our topic of discussion, I would say that the US East Coast should be watching. Pattern will favor strikes there from in close developments, both for the Southeast and Northeast. I could see another Arthur-like storm occurring. Bermuda may also be in the line of fire again. Probably a quiet year for the Caribbean due to El Nino shear and the stable MDR, similar to last year. Probably a quiet Gulf too, but waters are very warm there so any decrease in shear could lead to a quick development.
Quoting Gearsts:
So cute!

Ah so cute cuter than baby animals

Adding to the coral bleaching at the end of the entry the doldrums hint at that already. This graphic shows the number of days the wind has been calm. The doldrums have been back & forth, not lingering so long but growing longer. The areas are growing too. The area in region 1&2 seemed to last more days thru the last few frames. Click pick for animation.


Credit :NOAA
Quoting Gearsts:
Well with the SST setup we have i don't expect more for the atlantic.
Should be a slow season with some weak Subtropical cyclones like 2012.


Nah
I say active start inactive end
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


2010 was dead? 2011 was dead? 2012 was dead?


Nathan has been the perfect example of why forecasting the intensity of small storms is so hard. It was rapidly intensifying this morning, but as the loop shows, that came to a screeching halt. It looks like dry air may have only temporarily got ingested, but it was enough to do a number on the inner core.


On the bright side, a combination of +PDO and +ENSO should contribute to yet another hyperactive Pacific hurricane season. Those that focus solely on the Atlantic should broaden their choices; it's a lot more fun. :)
Epac should be a lot of fun this year.
I wonder if Hawaii might see another attack from the East this season?
Quoting 115. Skyepony:

Adding to the coral bleaching at the end of the entry the doldrums hint at that already. This graphic shows the number of days the wind has been calm. The doldrums have been back & forth, not lingering so long but growing longer. The areas are growing too. The area in region 1&2 seemed to last more days thru the last few frames. Click pick for animation.


Credit :NOAA


...
Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.
...
Quoting 111. Gearsts:

Well with the SST setup we have i don't expect more for the atlantic.
Should be a slow season with some weak Subtropical cyclones like 2012.



That area in the western Caribbean that has been boiling the last few years seems to have moderated some this winter. It's still above average SST-wise, but the anomaly is no where near it was the last 2 or 3 years.
Is my line of thinking wrong, in that it takes time for the effects of an El Nino or La Nina to be noticed. So it isn't like "boom" it is here and then "boom" we see the results of it...

One think I looked up is what to expect of an El Nino or La Nina in Alaska. The results were very inconclusive and historically the effects are different, because as we know El Nino and La Nina are not the only things driving the weather and weather patterns... Just my .02.
Quoting 121. Dakster:

Is my line of thinking wrong, in that it takes time for the effects of an El Nino or La Nina to be noticed. So it isn't like "boom" it is here and then "boom" we see the results of it...

One think I looked up is what to expect of an El Nino or La Nina in Alaska. The results were very inconclusive and historically the effects are different, because as we know El Nino and La Nina are not the only things driving the weather and weather patterns... Just my .02.


Kinda like the price of crude vs. gasoline?
We should create a hypothetical 2015 season tracks
That shows storm numbers that we are expecting
Where we would expect storm to be concentrated
What intensity we would expect
Individual track obviously not accurate but
Shows where impact area would be
Where storm would be trending eg(East-coasters,GOM-bombers, long Carib trackers, West-Carib-GOM/West-Carib tracker, CV long tracker, fish storm etc...)

We add it to MaxWeather list and at end of Year we see who is number winners AND who are impact winners
Thanks Dr. Masters....
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice

@JimCantore The only index that never showed Nino last year was CPC's 3-month agg version! Need a better definition





Or maybe we don't. August-December last year did not look like an El Nino. The effects of the warming trend in the base state caused the Atlantic hurricane season to appear to suffer from El Nino-like symptoms, but the Pacific did not resemble a +ENSO event, which would be a wavenumber 1 pattern in velocity potential centered on 120W. Keep in mind Ventrice will naturally take any opportunity to propel his methodology to the forefront of the discussion, as any researcher would, but that doesn't necessarily mean CPC's methodology is inadequate.

Quoting 106. Sfloridacat5:



When does that seasonal forecast start?
Just wondering because there's been all that activity lately north and east of Australia.



July, August, September

Kiss of death infact. This is about as worse as it gets.


hmmm....what part of that model run should we believe...that it's the kiss of death for the atlantic tropical season...or that florida will see about 50 percent of normal rainfall.....which during an el nino....has never happened.....so if one is wrong.....could it quite possibly all be wrong?????..........

Quoting 94. tampabaymatt:



Local mets were talking about the possibility of severe thunderstorms in NE FL tomorrow. Very dry here so far in March.


NWS JAX has no mention of thunderstorms for NE FL - much less a severe thunderstorm(s).

THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD POPS WILL BE USED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH CLOUDS INHIBITING INSTABILITY...WILL
KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


2010 was dead? 2011 was dead? 2012 was dead?


Nathan has been the perfect example of why forecasting the intensity of small storms is so hard. It was rapidly intensifying this morning, but as the loop shows, that came to a screeching halt. It looks like dry air may have only temporarily got ingested, but it was enough to do a number on the inner core.


On the bright side, a combination of +PDO and +ENSO should contribute to yet another hyperactive Pacific hurricane season. Those that focus solely on the Atlantic should broaden their choices; it's a lot more fun. :)


I myself may move to the Philippines if this keeps up.
On the bright side, a combination of +PDO and +ENSO should contribute to yet another hyperactive Pacific hurricane season. Those that focus solely on the Atlantic should broaden their choices; it's a lot more fun. :)

those of us living in the southwest....follow the pacific as it heightens our rain chances
Update on NHC Products and Services for 2015

1) Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
2) Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
3) Change to the Tropical Weather Outlook color-coded categories
4) Maintaining a three-hourly Public Advisory cycle when watches or
warnings are in effect
5) Mixed-case text products
6) Use of local time for eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
7) Tropical Cyclone forecast cone
South Florida continues to see above normal temperatures according to NOAA's 6-10 day outlook.

Could end up being a record warm month in some locations of Florida.



Precipitation

Quoting 127. ricderr:


Kiss of death infact. This is about as worse as it gets.


hmmm....what part of that model run should we believe...that it's the kiss of death for the atlantic tropical season...or that florida will see about 50 percent of normal rainfall.....which during an el nino....has never happened.....so if one is wrong.....could it quite possibly all be wrong?????..........




Obviously you aren't versed on the effects of El-Nino as El-Nino years tend to have drier than normal summers across FL only to have wetter than normal Fall/Winters. The fact that the Euro is hinting at possibly a drier summer across FL is no surprise. June and July look wet on the CFSv2 but then gets drier during August.
Quoting 116. wunderkidcayman:



Nah
I say active start inactive end

I say so too lol.
CMC shows a foot of snow for D.C next Tuesday...lololol.
136. 882MB
I think the reason for Nathan loosing its eye, and probably weakening some is that its moving over cooler waters due to upwelling, from when Nathan was closer to the coast of Queensland for almost a week. Yesterday it was farther east which made it go over waters that were not upwelled, so it allowed it to intensify. Now that is moving back west. I expect it to stay in moderate intensity, but remember these systems always surprise us, so until it makes landfall, I will keep observing it.





Obviously you aren't versed on the effects of El-Nino as El-Nino years tend to have drier than normal summers across FL only to have wetter than normal Fall/Winters. The fact that the Euro is hinting at possibly a drier summer across FL is no surprise.


i guess you're right scott...but then...if i'm not..i guess the CPC isn't right either
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Update on NHC Products and Services for 2015

1) Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
2) Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
3) Change to the Tropical Weather Outlook color-coded categories
4) Maintaining a three-hourly Public Advisory cycle when watches or
warnings are in effect
5) Mixed-case text products
6) Use of local time for eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
7) Tropical Cyclone forecast cone

I've mentioned #3 the changes to TWO colour code and percentages
Either yesterday or a few days ago
the first graph was central florida....this is south florida....which sees less than a ten percent reduction on average

Quoting 128. StAugustineFL:



NWS JAX has no mention of thunderstorms for NE FL - much less a severe thunderstorm(s).

THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD POPS WILL BE USED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH CLOUDS INHIBITING INSTABILITY...WILL
KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.


LOL. Good luck to them as the WRF and the NAM both show thunderstorms some that could be strong rolling SE from N FL into C FL late in the day as a disturbance drops SE off NE FL. 500mb temps looks to be -10 to -11C. So there will be some instability if heating is adequate.
this is the jacksonville region.......guess the cpc is still not well versed




Quoting 131. nrtiwlnvragn:

Update on NHC Products and Services for 2015

1) Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
2) Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
3) Change to the Tropical Weather Outlook color-coded categories
4) Maintaining a three-hourly Public Advisory cycle when watches or
warnings are in effect
5) Mixed-case text products
6) Use of local time for eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
7) Tropical Cyclone forecast cone

this potential storm surge flooding map is much needed..good idea.
and lets not forget the florida panhandle....oh look...they're above average too.....dangit to heck...i hate not being so freaking well versed....LOL


Quoting 137. ricderr:

Obviously you aren't versed on the effects of El-Nino as El-Nino years tend to have drier than normal summers across FL only to have wetter than normal Fall/Winters. The fact that the Euro is hinting at possibly a drier summer across FL is no surprise.


i guess you're right scott...but then...if i'm not..i guess the CPC isn't right either



El-Nino years tend to have a wet May, June, and July then dries out after. 2009 was a great example of this across C FL.

May of 2009 was record breaking rainfall wise and could see a wetter May this year as well compared to normal.
Quoting 128. StAugustineFL:



NWS JAX has no mention of thunderstorms for NE FL - much less a severe thunderstorm(s).

THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD POPS WILL BE USED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH CLOUDS INHIBITING INSTABILITY...WILL
KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.


To clarify, I meant local mets in Tampa. I don't live in Jacksonville. It was mentioned on the weather report this morning here.
Quoting 135. washingtonian115:

CMC shows a foot of snow for D.C next Tuesday...lololol.
lol you can have all the snow you want washi. as long as you keep it up there.lol
Quoting 145. ricderr:

and lets not forget the florida panhandle....oh look...they're above average too.....dangit to heck...i hate not being so freaking well versed....LOL





Ric anyone on here from FL can tell you that El-Nino summers start off very wet only to turn dry later in Summer specially August into September. Only to turn wet again later in October or November thru March.
152. flsky
Terrible choice of words. Fun for whom????

Quoting 117. Gearsts:

Epac should be a lot of fun this year.

Quoting 152. flsky:

Terrible choice of words. Fun for whom????


Everyone?
Quoting 137. ricderr:

Obviously you aren't versed on the effects of El-Nino as El-Nino years tend to have drier than normal summers across FL only to have wetter than normal Fall/Winters. The fact that the Euro is hinting at possibly a drier summer across FL is no surprise.


i guess you're right scott...but then...if i'm not..i guess the CPC isn't right either



ric, I usually like to read your posts on this blog and you tend to put forward a lot of great stuff. But, I have to tell you, lately it seems you come on here solely to troll the blog for STS posts. Give it a rest for a day or two.
Here in Fort Myers we average 37.58" during the rainy season (June - Sept).

That's a 9.4" per month average, which is one of the wettest areas in the state during the summer.
Quoting 117. Gearsts:

Epac should be a lot of fun this year.
>


2014 produced several great looking strong hurricanes.Marie was the best in my view.





If we do get a strong El-Nino later this Summer then these winter storms slamming into California are going to have lots of Oceanic heat energy to work with. I am worried that California is going to be in for a very interesting later quarter of the year. I don't think I've ever seen the Pacific this warm near the west coast of the US.

Ric anyone on here from FL can tell you that El-Nino summers start off very wet only to turn dry later in Summer specially August into September. Only to turn wet again later in October or November thru Marc

scott.....you posted a model of months july...august....september......it is showing below average rainfall for that period......then i posted a rebuttal refuting that model as 50 percent less rainfall in all florida regions has not happened during a recorded el nino event....you then replied that i'm not well versed as rainfall during that time period is below averaqe...so i posted the cpc rainfall total averages during that time period....which backs up my claims and shows that you're mistaken......it's ok...i accept your apology
160. 882MB
Its been very active in the Puerto Rican Trench, since yesterday. The strongest one was the most recent a 4.2 that is an area, that since yesterday there have been many tremors. Though they have been weak, so no reports of shaking, but shows that the area is in an active mode.

4.2
120km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 18:24:47 UTC

44.0 km

3.1
101km N of Road Town, British Virgin Islands

2015-03-18 13:43:49 UTC

55.0 km

3.3
127km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 13:02:57 UTC

72.0 km

3.7
53km NNW of San Antonio, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 12:47:45 UTC

10.0 km

2.6
15km SSE of Esperanza, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 10:03:49 UTC

13.0 km

3.0
114km NNW of Road Town, British Virgin Islands

2015-03-18 07:40:34 UTC

46.0 km

3.2
127km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 05:30:23 UTC

73.0 km

3.4
167km N of Road Town, British Virgin Islands

2015-03-18 05:14:44 UTC

45.0 km

3.4
125km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 04:36:43 UTC

71.0 km

2.5
120km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 03:03:58 UTC

46.0 km

3.5
175km NNW of Road Town, British Virgin Islands

2015-03-18 01:45:55 UTC

54.0 km

3.7
142km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-18 01:18:59 UTC

84.0 km

3.2
93km N of Road Town, British Virgin Islands

2015-03-17 22:31:53 UTC

35.0 km

2.9
104km NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015-03-17 21:56:25 UTC

36.0 km
Quoting 152. flsky:

Terrible choice of words. Fun for whom????




the E Pac is generally less damaging than the Atlantic, b/c most storms curve out to sea. Obviously Odile was the big exception
Quoting 148. tampabaymatt:



To clarify, I meant local mets in Tampa. I don't live in Jacksonville. It was mentioned on the weather report this morning here.


I'm with ya. Just thought it was interesting with the difference in discussion between Tampa area mets for NE FL versus the local NWS office here. I have no expectation - whatever happens, happens. My forecast has a 50% chance of showers tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies and a high in the upper 70's. Flip a coin.
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:

If we do get a strong El-Nino later this Summer then these winter storms slamming into California are going to have lots of Oceanic heat energy to work with. I am worried that California is going to be in for a very interesting later quarter of the year. I don't think I've ever seen the Pacific this warm near the west coast of the US.




Anomalies have been that strong for months. Actually one of the factors behind what has been by far the warmest winter on record for CA.

Link
looks like more snow for new England this weekend......................
ric, I usually like to read your posts on this blog and you tend to put forward a lot of great stuff. But, I have to tell you, lately it seems you come on here solely to troll the blog for STS posts. Give it a rest for a day or two.

tampa...you have the right to post whatever you want and it is not up to me to say anything about it...that's for mods and admin....and that in my realm of thinking....goes for all bloggers.....if you feel differently that is your right.....i'm sorry you feel i'm trolling scott...i'm just trying to refute erroneous information that is being posted......it's not my concern who the poster is
Quoting 159. ricderr:

Ric anyone on here from FL can tell you that El-Nino summers start off very wet only to turn dry later in Summer specially August into September. Only to turn wet again later in October or November thru Marc

scott.....you posted a model of months july...august....september......it is showing below average rainfall for that period......then i posted a rebuttal refuting that model as 50 percent less rainfall in all florida regions has not happened during a recorded el nino event....you then replied that i'm not well versed as rainfall during that time period is below averaqe...so i posted the cpc rainfall total averages during that time period....which backs up my claims and shows that you're mistaken......it's ok...i accept your apology


LOL! Not gonna happen. I think you should read these links below.



Link
Link
Good evening, and I see Scott got "his" Nino-blog, lol (thanks for it, doc) ...

Temperatures officially up to nearly 20C (68F) in the southwest of sunny Germany today, and clearly above that in my backyard downtown Mainz. Just saw people sitting open air outside the restaurants at 8.30 p.m. - hours after sunset - without any heating; okay, they're wearing their coats, but it has been really a very mild day, and the day before has been as well ...

For your convenience here the t-max today in Europe in Fahrenheit:


I'm not surprised to find the article below:

Two Months In and 2015 Is Record Warm
Climate Central, Published: March 18th, 2015, By Andrea Thompson
We may only be two months into 2015, but already the year is burning up the charts, setting up the possibility that it could topple 2014’s newly minted record for hottest year.
Together, January and February were the warmest such period on record, according to global data released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With an El Niño (albeit a weak one) in place, there’s potential for that warmth to stick around and elevate temperatures for more of the year. ...
Whole article see link above.

Quoting 157. Tropicsweatherpr:



2014 produced several great looking strong hurricanes.Marie was the best in my view.







I'd say it's a contest between Marie and Iselle.
Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:


How much heat would have to be removed from the oceans to get to that figure exactly?? I imagine the value in Joules would be many, many digits long.


That's great question. Another question would be, where will all the heat go? Into atmosphere? That would cause some issues haha. That's a funny graph by the way to put the drop in temperature in perspective.
Quoting 122. ChillinInTheKeys:



Kinda like the price of crude vs. gasoline?


Something like that. I still don't get the $40 bbl price for crude and over $3 a gal fuel here... makes as much sense as the weather.
I know this is a little off topic. Does anyone have a link for viewing via satellite imagery water clarity?
Quoting 172. Dakster:



Something like that. I still don't get the $40 bbl price for crude and over $3 a gal fuel here... makes as much sense as the weather.


I think between the lag time you were referring to, strikes & the California refinery fire, gas hasn't kept up.
LOL! Not gonna happen. I think you should read these links below.


LMAO....ok scott....you choose as you choose....i'm just gonna have to stay not well versed and go with what the CPC has.....i tend to trust their research accuracy
Quoting 173. SomeRandomTexan:

I know this is a little off topic. Does anyone have a link for viewing via satellite imagery water clarity?


This is the best that I can do...

Link
Quoting ricderr:
LOL! Not gonna happen. I think you should read these links below.


LMAO....ok scott....you choose as you choose....i'm just gonna have to stay not well versed and go with what the CPC has.....i tend to trust their research accuracy

I think this is a record for Scott
Sticking to the super El Niño of his for what now a year and a half or is it two years now lol
178. bwi
Long fetch of light westerlies just south of the equator in the W Pacific, and some westerlies at the equator in the E Pacific too.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-113.16,2.14,280
Appears the pattern has shifted south.....


Quoting 178. bwi:

Long fetch of light westerlies just south of the equator in the W Pacific, and some westerlies at the equator in the E Pacific too.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-113.16,2.14,280
A chance of snow Friday..Inches are being added to the forecast now...again...
Quoting 176. ChillinInTheKeys:



This is the best that I can do...

Link


Thanks!
melting glaciers could raise oceans up 11 feet......................................Link
LOL! Not gonna happen. I think you should read these links below.



HOLD ON HERE NELLY


LOL...hold on here scott...you tell me that i'm not well versed and florida receives less rain in that time period during el nino....and then you just now give me links that the one says....no impact......now although the CPC shows slightly higher than average...i can see that even though the totals are higher....22 inches as compared to 21 inches.....that's not an impact....but even what you posted....disproves your claim that it's lower......come on bubba...you have to up your game....we've got summer and long range models and either a weakening or strengthening el nino....if we're gonna have opposing views we both need our a games
I think this is a record for Scott
Sticking to the super El Niño of his for what now a year and a half or is it two years now lol



now kid.......be careful here...cus i'm gonna defend him...oh...he's been wrong as rain.....back in dec 2013 when he said there would be an el nino that month and it was statistically impossible.....last june when he didn't understand the five three month aggregates...that fact that he latches onto these long range models or far reaching "experts"....he does bring material that backs up what he says....it's just that his info is wrong.....well...that is until today...when his links backed up what i said...but i doubt he'll do that again.......

see kid...i disagree with scott many times....i'm gung ho noaa...experts...and to err on the side of caution...and go with the best odds...so....i'll refute his claims...not him as a person
melting glaciers could raise oceans up 11 feet......................................Link


again....WHOAA NELLY....


largo just posted something that is not "upcoming ice age" related........well.....h e double hockey sticks just froze over......maybe the ice age is coming after all.....

i'm out for awhile guys....enjoy
186. 882MB
New forecast track has Nathan gaining strength, becoming category 3, crossing Queensland, and becoming category 1 once entering the Gulf of Carpentaria to then make landfall in the Northern Territory. After a quick lost in its eye today, guess there's plenty of fuel for Nathan to grow. I thought he upwelled enough cooler waters to slow down intensity, since he's been sitting almost in the same spot for a week. If not this would of probably been a monster, but like I said earlier ill be keeping in touch with cyclone Nathan's progress.







All this talk of favorite storms from last year?

Here's my least favorite!
Quoting 125. Levi32:



Or maybe we don't. August-December last year did not look like an El Nino. The effects of the warming trend in the base state caused the Atlantic hurricane season to appear to suffer from El Nino-like symptoms, but the Pacific did not resemble a +ENSO event, which would be a wavenumber 1 pattern in velocity potential centered on 120W. Keep in mind Ventrice will naturally take any opportunity to propel his methodology to the forefront of the discussion, as any researcher would, but that doesn't necessarily mean CPC's methodology is inadequate.




Keep in mind, the global wavenumber 2 VP signature is virtually what you'd expect to see in the post 1997-98 era El Ninos (or even in the post 1976-78 era for that matter), w/ the Pacific NINO circulation actually being secondary to the eastern hemisphere/Indian Ocean despite the +ENSO base state.


I've posted these images several times here before & think it's applicable to show once again as a reminder...
NDJFM Global VP (the most remarkable change in the VP configuration

Pre 1976-78 Ninos


Post 1976-78 Ninos


Post 1997-98 Ninos



The most dramatic alterations to the NINO anomalous upper level VP circulation happened between the 1991-92/1994-95 & the 1997-98/2002-03 El Ninos. I'm not sure why these events in particular were dramatic turning points, but this does provide a basis of research for any interested & motivated scientist(s). The days of a classic wavenumber 1, central-eastern Pacific dominated upper level VP signature are long gone, for now anyways...

1991-92 NDJFM VP



1994-95 NDJFM VP



1997-98 NDJFM VP
The 1997-98 Super Nino was actually strong enough to merge the pre-dominant eastern Pacific & Western Indian Ocean anomalous upward motion centers. Even in this extremely powerful El Nino, it's clear the eastern hemisphere was still attempting to interfere, (although one could speculate that this is also a function of the east-based nature of this El Nino) the multidecadal trend featuring a progressive weakening/eastward progression of the Pacific Upper Level VP center continued...



2002-03 NDJFM VP


& these alterations have lingered w/ every El Nino since. Last year actually doesn't look too bad compared...

2004-05 NDJFM VP


2006-07 is a great example of how a typically more favorable +IOD can actually backfire on you...

NDJFM 2006-07 SST Anomalies (using the most recent 30-year base period (1985-2014))




2009-10 NDJFM VP


I'll admit, the source of interference for this past winter's El Nino actually didn't come from the Indian Ocean like the other post 1997-98 El Ninos, but the Maritime Continent & Australia. I find that very interesting. If we didn't have the zone of upper level convergence near the international dateline, this would have been a nice throwback to the pre-1994-95 Ninos...
This year thru mid March


The evolution towards increasing eastern hemisphere interference is directly related to the major/semi-permanent upward step-changes in the Indian Ocean SSTs following major El Ninos events, creating a progressive, multidecadal warming of the SSTs there which positively respond to El Nino events, yet lack an equivalent negative response during the following La Ninas (that in many cases last as long if not longer than the El Ninos that indirectly forced the SST spike)... These semi-permanent positive spikes (& esp. the masking of the warming by the Mt. Pinatubo (1991) & El Chichon (1982) volcanic eruptions in OISSTv2) following major El Ninos are evident in Kaplan & Reynolds OISSTv2 datasets...



Quoting 180. washingtonian115:

A chance of snow Friday..Inches are being added to the forecast now...again...
If you want to die from laughter look at the 12z GEM for early next week ;)
Quoting 189. Tornado6042008X:

If you want to die from laughter look at the 12z GEM for early next week ;)
Quoting 169. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd say it's a contest between Marie and Iselle.



Iselle takes the cake, IMO...

Annular Hurricanes that resemble Krispy Kreme Donuts are always winners in my book...





LOL! GEM drops about 20-24 inches on the region next week.
Here's the statistical RMM 1+2 MJO 20 day forecast based on Maharaj & Wheeler (2005). Unlike many of the global models, this forecast maintains this high amplitude MJO pulse right on into the Indian Ocean, which could potentially argue for at least a brief restoration of the easterlies in the coming weeks, and would have implications on the introduction of eastern hemispheric interference as we begin to progress towards the south Asia monsoon....




At this point, since we have a strong MJO event already in progress, & despite the fact that the eastern hemisphere has been dormant of late, you have to be weary of the global models trying to shove the MJO back into the COD as it reaches phase 1-2. The CFS & European suites are notorious for having issues picking up on Indian Ocean (phase 2-3) MJO events/initiation



(Once again, I'm referencing this image from H. Kim, Webster, Toma, & D. Kim (Aug 2014))


It will be interesting to see what the final RMM values for this rather fast moving event will be, these preliminary numbers are often a bit overdone, but even so, a >3.5 sigma event is astounding no matter how you slice it...
Link

I think it's amazing how well this extremely amplified event matches up w/ climatology & the seasonal behavior of the MJO, w/ maximum amplification usually observed in/around mid March

Right on the $$...
Webberweather53,you are a future pro met in the making and when you get the met degree I can see you working at NHC or CPC.
Quoting 192. Climate175:

LOL! GEM drops about 20-24 inches on the region next week.
Lol if that happens the kids will be in school until July.Nope not happening
Quoting vis0:
CREDIT:: NOAA
SUBJECT:: ...Arklatex
D&T:: 201503-18;1000UTC till 201503-18;1445UTC (every Hr)


on a blog related note, i want sar2401 to administer a full battery of tests  on El Niño, and ask him where he been, you sar24012 play the bad cop STS plays the good cop   ..: - P
Unfortunately, that piece of junk series of lows/elongated trough over Texas is turning into an even bigger piece of junk as I type. We've gone from an 80% chance of rain to 40%, and that's probably generous. Any time the low is 1016 mb and the high is 1018 mb the probability of getting more than a few showers is pretty low. The temperature here now is 88 with a dewpoint of 56(!). It's going to take an awful lot of moistening up to pull anything from that airmass. It's kind of sad to read the SPC discussion and watch the "marginal" area get smaller and further west. I can almost picture the boys at the SPC trying to salvage any kind of severe weather out of this they can, even if "marginal" really means "Seriously, this is about as marginal as it gets". This kind of setup has become all too common since last fall, and we're getting further and further behind on rainfall.

When it comes to El Nino, I try t keep my nose out of it. I really don't want top spend the time studying every little nuance of how the atmosphere is changing. In addition, I'm not really smart enough to get it all without a lot of studying. We'll get what we get, regardless of predictions. It's kind of like preseason hurricane prediction numbers. We don't have the science to be able to make even close to accurate guesses three to six months in advance. Given this, the people who are the biggest cheerleaders on both sides of the contention will get all the attention, and none of what they say - not one iota of what they say - will make any difference to the eventual outcome. I'd rather spend my time trying to figure out why the stock market is sucking bilge water since that affects how many Happy Meals I get. :-)
Quoting 194. Tropicsweatherpr:

Webberweather53,you are a future pro met in the making and when you get the met degree I can see you working at NHC or CPC.


Thanks, hopefully I do land a job in an accredited agency or institution in the very distant future... Judging by the amount of time, work, & networking that will be necessary to reach these places (esp. in this kind of competitive market) I'll probably already have gray hair (or none at all) by the time I arrive, lol...
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

Lol if that happens the kids will be in school until July.Nope not happening
I just can't believe this forecast is 5 days away LOL.
Quoting Webberweather53:


Keep in mind, the global wavenumber 2 VP signature is virtually what you'd expect to see in the post 1997-98 era El Ninos (or even in the post 1976-78 era for that matter), w/ the Pacific NINO circulation actually being secondary to the eastern hemisphere/Indian Ocean despite the +ENSO base state.
Webber, is it possible to express yourself with just a few less graphs? Take pity on those of us with crummy internet connections. :-)
188. Webberweather53:

Your point about an alteration of the +ENSO regime post-1978 is intriguing, but I question the results of your hand-picked examples. If I simply remove the pre-satellite era and run correlations for 1979-2014 against Nino 3.4, I still get wavenumber 1 for both Aug-Dec and Nov-Mar. Perhaps the La Nina phases included here skew the result for Ninos if the two are different, but these are very strong correlations.





I get the same thing for 1998-2014 (Nov-Mar):

Quoting 200. Levi32:

188. Webberweather53:

Your point about an alteration of the +ENSO regime post-1978 is interesting, but I question the results of your hand-picked examples. If I simply remove the pre-satellite era and run correlations for 1979-2014 against Nino 3.4, I still get wavenumber 1 for both Aug-Dec and Nov-Mar:






The NINO 3.4-VP correlation is likely a function of the contribution from La Nina events, which don't really have to contend w/ these kind of issues since their main upward motion center is naturally more in phase with this source of eastern hemisphere interference emanating from the Indian Ocean...

The multidecadal changes in the La Nina's anomalous upper level circulation is nowhere near as dramatic as the El Ninos, but it too has been affected, and the core of upper level divergence has shifted appreciably westward into the Maritime Continent/Indian Ocean as opposed to the western Pacific...

NDJFM VP pre 1976-78 La Ninas


NDJFM VP post 1976-78 La Ninas


NDJFM VP post 1997-98 La Ninas

Now that's what I like to call a scientific discussion!.
@Webberweather

If I filter the Nov-Mar period since 1979 for any Nino 3.4 value above 0.5 for that period in the NCEP Reanalysis dataset, I get the same list of years you did. Thus, it seems the La Ninas skew the correlation to wavenumber 1, which would make sense since La Nina is little more than a strengthening of the natural base state of the Pacific, meaning it's easier to keep a solid wavenumber 1.

The difference you highlighted since 1978 could be due either to bad reanalysis data pre-satellite era (very possible), or have something to do with the PDO flip near that time, and then the AMO flip in 1995. Can only speculate on exactly how that interaction would work.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol if that happens the kids will be in school until July.Nope not happening


Especially since the all time record for the entire month of March is 12" for Washington D.C.
Quoting 200. Levi32:

188. Webberweather53:

Your point about an alteration of the +ENSO regime post-1978 is intriguing, but I question the results of your hand-picked examples. If I simply remove the pre-satellite era and run correlations for 1979-2014 against Nino 3.4, I still get wavenumber 1 for both Aug-Dec and Nov-Mar. Perhaps the La Nina phases included here skew the result for Ninos if the two are different, but these are very strong correlations.





I get the same thing for 1998-2014 (Nov-Mar):




I also made a post a while ago regarding the multidecadal IO warming & its effects to weakening the TEJ...

There was definitely zonal contraction in the 1980s & 1990s, however, this trend has started to reverse on its western flank over Africa...




Strictly looking at this since the start of the satellite era, this trend in the TEJ is consistent w/ the definitive shift in the balance of power in the anomalous global upper level circulation, w/ the eastern hemisphere & Africa beginning to become more dominant


The NDJFM trend is interestingly going more in favor of the southern hemisphere...


I bet that's a response to the +SAM/AAO (-NAM/AO) tendency intensifying (weakening) the southern (northern) hemisphere's contribution to the Hadley Cell network, but that will take further research on my part. Certainly is in compliance w/ those who view the overall system as one involving significant two-way extratropical-tropical interactions, even on multidecadal timescales...

This hemispheric asymmetry is also at least being proxied by the changes in hemispheric sea ice...




I also suppose if the TEJ wasn't in the process of weakening (as has been the case since the beginning of the satellite era), the African Sahel's wet response the +AMO shift in 1995 would have likely been much more swift, nonetheless, it appears we may be entering a multidecadal wet regime for the first time since the late 1960s...
What was really new for me in the last months is the number of oscillations lingering in our atmosphere and oceans: ENSO, AMO, PDO, IPO, AO, NAO, NPO, MJO and certainly many more, wow ...

Guess we'll have to add another one, though: SRMO = Simple reader's mind oscillation :-))
Here it is:


Source.

-----------------------------

And this is something brain shaking as well, lol:

Eclipse junkies head for the Svalbard islands
The Local (Norway), Published: 18 Mar 2015 12:08 GMT 01:00
Die-hard eclipse junkies from around the world are expected to brave polar bears and frostbite in the Arctic on Friday to savour three minutes of total darkness when the moon totally blocks the sun.
The Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, located 1,300 kilometres (800 miles) from the North Pole, is along with the Faroe Islands the only place the total eclipse will be visible. Elsewhere only a partial eclipse will be seen at best.
Svalbard's population will almost double for the eclipse, as 1,500 to 2,000 visitors are expected to fly in to watch the phenomenon that has fascinated mankind since the beginning of time. ...
While you can't buy an eclipse, you can put a price on it. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard's main town with 2,100 inhabitants, hotels have been almost fully booked for years ahead of the event, and the few available rooms are now going for astronomical rates: 5,000 kroner ($600, 572 euros) a night for a double room and up to five times more for an apartment on the rental website Airbnb.
"We're very concerned that people will arrive here without making sure they have a roof over their heads," says Ronny Brunvoll, the head of the Visit Svalbard tourism association.
"People have to understand that we are a small village close to the North Pole and we can't just build a new hotel or redirect them to a neighbouring village."
Located at 78 degrees North, temperatures in Svalbard can fall to -20 Celsius (-4 Fahrenheit) at this time of year in the tundra, where roaming polar bears pose a real threat to people. ...


Good night folks, and thanks for all the education!
Cyclone Nathan appears primed to begin intensification again.

Quoting 165. ricderr:

ric, I usually like to read your posts on this blog and you tend to put forward a lot of great stuff. But, I have to tell you, lately it seems you come on here solely to troll the blog for STS posts. Give it a rest for a day or two.

tampa...you have the right to post whatever you want and it is not up to me to say anything about it...that's for mods and admin....and that in my realm of thinking....goes for all bloggers.....if you feel differently that is your right.....i'm sorry you feel i'm trolling scott...i'm just trying to refute erroneous information that is being posted......it's not my concern who the poster is


Fair point. I'm just pointing out my observation. Over the past week or so, it seems to be your personal mission to do nothing but refute Scott's points. Sometimes, it comes across as trolling. Like I said, you are a very valuable poster with lots of great info, much more so than me. I just prefer you stick to that instead of trying to destroy this guy every day. Again, just my opinion and I respect if you have a different one.
Quoting 207. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Nathan appears primed to begin intensification again.




Really enjoying tracking Nathan, perfect example of why you should take models with a pinch of salt in regards to smaller systems. The GFS was producing a cat 4/5 monster not too long ago with Nathan. Hopefully it won't intensify too much more. An intensifying cyclone at landfall, especially if it's a major, is not good at all. Will be interesting to see how land interaction will weaken it, as when it enters the Gulf of Carpentaria, it'll have waters of 30-32C to work with compared to the 26-29C water it's over at the moment.
Dakster: When I don't put anything in front of an article link it means I think the article is of ordinary importance. * is a bit more important, *** is a bit more important than that, and !!! is the most important of all.
Quoting 127. ricderr:


hmmm....what part of that model run should we believe...that it's the kiss of death for the atlantic tropical season...or that florida will see about 50 percent of normal rainfall.....which during an el nino....has never happened.....so if one is wrong.....could it quite possibly all be wrong?????..........




By FL will see about 50% of normal rainfall you mean like that is alot for an El Nino year? During in El Nino in the 60s, '82-83 & in 1997-98...it just quit raining in a part of FL, usually after a really wet winter & then caught fire the next summer. 1998 they sent the tourists home & at one point evacuated all of Volusia County..home to Daytona Beach for July 4th weekend.


Checking out NASA's Grace surface soil moisture drought indicator.
Nathan is set to become the fourth consecutive Severe Tropical Cyclone landfall in the Australian mainland. Is this a record?
Nathan
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Nathan appears primed to begin intensification again.


Nathan does take a while to organize, doesn't he? :)
Nathan...

216. 882MB
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 7:00 am EST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the center of 140 kilometers per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometers per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometers of 14.7 degrees South, 147.9 degrees East , 305 kilometers east northeast of Cooktown and 335 kilometers northeast of Cairns .
Movement: west at 10 kilometers per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the north Queensland coast. Further intensification is expected before the system makes landfall as a category 4 cyclone, most likely between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation early on Friday morning.


Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to reach 260 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation early on Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h currently extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Cairns late this afternoon or tonight, before extending inland to areas including Palmerville and Laura on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to about 70 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Port Douglas overnight Thursday into early Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cairns are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.





Nathan's been a real fun one to watch. It's taken on a lot of different shapes and structures in the past few days, but hasn't found the winning combination so far. Maybe this is the one.

Can someone help me out here. I am familiar with areas of Australia around Cairns Lizard Island and just inland from Cooktown. But I dont know of much to the North of there and cant seem to find any maps with named towns along the coast and North of Cooktown. (Nathans path). Is that area mostly national Forrest or do I just suck at internet searches?

Edit: Runs to grab my Atlas!
Quoting 210. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster: When I don't put anything in front of an article link it means I think the article is of ordinary importance. * is a bit more important, *** is a bit more important than that, and !!! is the most important of all.
Brian I truly appreciate your contribution to the blog.
OK my old eyes could not see clearly what was named in my Atlas so I resorted to Google Earth. WOW! there is almost no coastal development North of Cooktown. How cool is that. I would love to explore that area!
Quoting 207. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Nathan appears primed to begin intensification again.




Nathan should cause substantial pressure falls at Darwin within the next few days, thus here comes a +SOI spike... Would be interesting to see if it can somehow cross over onto the other side of northern Australia into the Indian Ocean
Quoting 178. bwi:

Long fetch of light westerlies just south of the equator in the W Pacific, and some westerlies at the equator in the E Pacific too.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-113.16,2.14,280


If tis is the case in May, we have a continuing El Nino.
Quoting 222. Webberweather53:



Nathan should cause substantial pressure falls at Darwin within the next few days, thus here comes a +SOI spike... Would be interesting to see if it can somehow cross over onto the other side of northern Australia into the Indian Ocean


Hi Webber.If it goes to the Indian Ocean,what effects that may have on ENSO?
Quoting 211. Skyepony:



By FL will see about 50% of normal rainfall you mean like that is alot for an El Nino year? During in El Nino in the 60s, '82-83 & in 1997-98...it just quit raining in a part of FL, usually after a really wet winter & then caught fire the next summer. 1998 they sent the tourists home & at one point evacuated all of Volusia County..home to Daytona Beach for July 4th weekend.


Checking out NASA's Grace surface soil moisture drought indicator.



Well it's been a bit dry for a couple weeks, not really a big deal. Overall it's been wet since last summer, and unless it stays this dry going into summer, we'll be fine.

The nice thing about drought in Florida is that although the baking sun and poor sandy soil can get rough in spring, the drought never lasts too long for the most part and leaves even faster than it goes. We had a pretty nasty drought prior to Debby in 2011, it was one of the driest winter/spring periods on record then Debby came in along with a continued rainy summer and the drought that took months to accumulate was gone just like that.

Also drought in Florida is a natural seasonal thing, there's a reason why much of Florida gets 70% of 50 inches of rain in a year during usually only 3-5 months. One season on average is more prone to floods, the other more prone to droughts.

The thing is, tropical brush tends to become overgrown in the summer and fires are needed to help burn off the brush otherwise it's difficult for forest growth to develop since large tree seedlings can get chocked out. Most fires in Florida are more beneficial than bad since most don't burn out forests, just under brush. Only rare unusually long droughts bring harmful amounts of fires. However, that's part of the world of weather variability.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #43
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY THREE (17U)

11:06 AM EST March 19 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Three (972 hPa) located at 14.6S 147.6E or 245 kilometers east of Cape Flattery and 270 kilometers east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the north Queensland coast. Further intensification is expected before the system makes landfall as a category 4 cyclone, most likely between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to reach 260 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h currently extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas late this afternoon or tonight, before extending inland to areas including Palmerville and Laura on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to about 70 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation late tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Tides may just exceed the highest tide of the year on the coast south of Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas on the high tide on Friday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the coast between Coen and Cape Tribulation tonight, extending west through inland parts with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Nathan on Friday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning for abnormally high tides is current for the coast from Port Douglas to Innisfail.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 14.7S 146.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4) northwest of Cape Flattery
24 HRS 14.7S 144.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2) Overland Queensland
48 HRS 14.0S 140.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 12.7S 136.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
===========================
Severe tropical cyclone Nathan has continued to hold a steady intensity into this morning after a period of rapid intensification during Wednesday. The eye has become less evident on satellite imagery and the central dense overcast has become asymmetric over the last 6 to 12 hours. Vertical wind shear continues to remain low with the CIMMS wind shear product indicating only 5 to 10 knots of shear over the system and along the forecast track.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded center pattern with a MG surround and a banding feature, giving a DT of 4.5. MET and PAT were both 4.5. FT based on a 3-hour averaged DT. CI maintained at 4.5. Confidence in the location of the system is rated as good based on Willis Island radar.

Confidence in the forecast track in the short to medium term is high, with a clear steering influence and numerical weather prediction model tracks being reasonable well clustered. Given the very favorable environment, will continue to forecast further intensification at just over the standard rate for the remaining period until landfall. Taking into account the small size of the system and the very favorable environment, periods of more rapid intensification are possible. The recent slowing of intensification makes category 5 before landfall less likely, but it still cannot be ruled out.

In the longer term the remains of the system will emerge into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday morning and track rapidly west-northwest towards the eastern Top End of the Northern Territory. Numerical guidance generally intensify the system to tropical cyclone again quite rapidly, with some guidance reaching at least a category 3 system again in the Gulf. Although this is consistent with the current environment of very low shear across the Gulf, the intensity forecast is tempered by the possibility of an upper trough introducing some deep layer westerly shear to the system during this period. Will forecast the system peaking at 55 knots in the Gulf at this time.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for areas from Lockhart River to Port Douglas, extending inland to areas including Laura and Palmerville
Quoting 218. QueensWreath:

Can someone help me out here. I am familiar with areas of Australia around Cairns Lizard Island and just inland from Cooktown. But I dont know of much to the North of there and cant seem to find any maps with named towns along the coast and North of Cooktown. (Nathans path). Is that area mostly national Forrest or do I just suck at internet searches?

Edit: Runs to grab my Atlas!



There's Cape Melville National Park. However, you'll have to wait until August due to the wet season and the fact that there are no bridges at the river crossings. They close the park during the wet season.


Link
Quoting 224. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Webber.If it goes to the Indian Ocean,what effects that may have on ENSO?


None as Nathan will be too weak at that point. What I am watching is that this record breaking MJO maybe set to make a second run at the Pacific in a couple of weeks as the MJO could skip the Indian Ocean and head back into the W-Pac. I blogged about that this morning as the models are interesting today regarding the MJO.

It appears this El-Nino is going to be the strongest since 1997. Bottomline those hoping for something to satisfy their needs for a weaker El-Nino are gone at this point. I say we top out at 1.8 to 1.9C at nino 3.4.

Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:

MJO reloads for another run in a couple weeks. You can tell the atmosphere is strongly favoring El-Nino to persist and strengthen going forward.




How does one read the MJO graph? I have looked at it for quite a while and still haven't figured out what it is trying to tell us.
Quoting 229. oldmickey:
How does one read the MJO graph? I have looked at it for quite a while and still haven't figured out what it is trying to tell us.


There is my post from this morning.
Quoting 216. 882MB:

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 7:00 am EST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the center of 140 kilometers per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometers per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometers of 14.7 degrees South, 147.9 degrees East , 305 kilometers east northeast of Cooktown and 335 kilometers northeast of Cairns .
Movement: west at 10 kilometers per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the north Queensland coast. Further intensification is expected before the system makes landfall as a category 4 cyclone, most likely between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation early on Friday morning.


Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to reach 260 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation early on Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h currently extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Cairns late this afternoon or tonight, before extending inland to areas including Palmerville and Laura on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to about 70 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Port Douglas overnight Thursday into early Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cairns are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.









Look at the burst of thunderstorm activity around the center. Think there could be some more intensification before landfall?
Quoting 229. oldmickey:
How does one read the MJO graph? I have looked at it for quite a while and still haven't figured out what it is trying to tell us.


Let me know if you need anything else.

Link
Quoting 224. Tropicsweatherpr:



Hi Webber.If it goes to the Indian Ocean,what effects that may have on ENSO?


Given the size of Nathan, the chances are fairly slim this even crosses over into the Indian Ocean, but even in the case that it does, the effects on ENSO will be minimal, if any, because the large-scale juxtaposition of tropical forcing will remain favorable for WWBs to continue along/east of the international dateline for at least the next week or so until the MJO reaches phase 3... The bigger ? IMO is what the response will be as this high amplitude pulse enters the Indian Ocean/eastern hemisphere. The dearth of overall convective activity within the last several weeks in this basin along with the ENSO base state favor rapid progression of the MJO across the tropics, particularly in the eastern hemisphere and a significant loss of amplitude, which could also mean a decoupling of the CCKW from the lower freq MJO that may lead to major confusion in the RMM indices... The response here will be key because in 1997, as the downwelling Eq KW surfaced, & the bjerknes feedback began to kick into high gear, the MJO faded rapidly, and failed to reach the Maritime Continent. If the MJO doesn't fade rapidly over the Indian Ocean, that may put a damper on this El Nino & commence a period of eastern hemispheric interference that would likely peak over the summer...

BTW, Despite what Scott says, the MJO isn't moving back into the Pacific in a few weeks, it should be heading out within the next week or so. In the unlikely scenario we see a relative uptick in anomalous convective activity, WWBs, VP200, etc, it would be associated w/ a faster moving, higher freq. CCKW & not the MJO..
Thank you Wolfberry!
Quoting 233. Webberweather53:


Given the size of Nathan, the chances are fairly slim this even crosses over into the Indian Ocean, but even in the case that it does, the effects on ENSO will be minimal, if any, because the large-scale juxtaposition of tropical forcing will remain favorable for WWBs to continue along/east of the international dateline for at least the next week or so until the MJO reaches phase 3... The bigger ? IMO is what the response will be as this high amplitude pulse enters the Indian Ocean/eastern hemisphere. The dearth of overall convective activity within the last several weeks in this basin along with the ENSO base state favor rapid progression of the MJO across the tropics, particularly in the eastern hemisphere and a significant loss of amplitude, which could also mean a decoupling of the CCKW from the lower freq MJO that may lead to major confusion in the RMM indices... The response here will be key because in 1997, as the downwelling Eq KW surfaced, & the bjerknes feedback began to kick into high gear, the MJO faded rapidly, and failed to reach the Maritime Continent. If the MJO doesn't fade rapidly over the Indian Ocean, that may put a damper on this El Nino & commence a period of eastern hemispheric interference that would likely peak over the summer...

BTW, Despite what Scott says, the MJO isn't moving back into the Pacific in a few weeks, it should be heading out within the next week or so. In the unlikely scenario we see a relative uptick in anomalous convective activity, WWBs, VP200, etc, it would be associated w/ a faster moving, higher freq. CCKW & not the MJO..


Well either Eric Blake was watching this blog earlier or he was on the same page as me.


Eric Blake@EricBlake12
@WSI_Energy @TheSteveCop what I want to know how fast it gets back into the wpac (if it "skips" over Indian Ocean) -- should be telling



Steve Copertino@TheSteveCop Mar 17
@WSI_Energy Very similar to the event back in 1997.
Link

WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy @TheSteveCop Similar amplitude but this event is considerably faster
Quoting 230. StormTrackerScott:



There is my post from this morning.
i have read your post. My lack of understanding is what does the graph explain? I see that it shows the MJO as it traverses the Pacific but does the lines indicate strength or simply line of travel? Why does the MJO always have that same configuration? Why does it always head back to the center?
Quoting 76. Grothar:

March 1908 Category 2




A hurricane in march... crossing my area... crazy!!!
The El-Nino train is moving full speed ahead now. An amazing reversal in just a week.


Missed us again, close enough to see the Lightning, very dark clouds.....
Quoting 238. StormTrackerScott:

The El-Nino train is moving full speed ahead now. An amazing reversal in just a week.




Weather impacts tend to be delayed from large scale impacts like El Nino. My guess is the cooling anomalies earlier could possibly be what led to the drier pattern in Florida after it was wet for a while. However, it could just as easily be a coincidence. Generally speaking, only stronger EL Nino events have shown consistent correlation to heavy precip in Florida, weaker El Ninos are less consistent historically.


With that said, it will be interesting to see how the end of March into April behaves rainfall wise. I'm not saying one way or the other, I'm just curious.
Quoting 238. StormTrackerScott:

The El-Nino train is moving full speed ahead now. An amazing reversal in just a week.




Most telling thing for me in this image is the IOD seems to want to reverse. I hope Levi doesn't mind me editing this:

Quoting 240. Jedkins01:


Weather impacts tend to be delayed from large scale impacts like El Nino. My guess is the cooling anomalies earlier could possibly be what led to the drier pattern in Florida after it was wet for a while. However, it could just as easily be a coincidence. Generally speaking, only stronger EL Nino events have shown consistent correlation to heavy precip in Florida, weaker El Ninos are less consistent historically.


With that said, it will be interesting to see how the end of March into April behaves rainfall wise. I'm not saying one way or the other, I'm just curious.


Back at the end of February the folks at WSI mentioned that the first half to 3 weeks of March the US would be dominated by a La-Nina like atmoshpere so yes you are correct.
hey Ped - Sorry you got missed by the rain... No Aurora's for me last night. :(



Pretty much 40s all day, dropping a little now to 35.5. The forecast for tomorrow keeps moving between 45-50F for the daytime highs... yikes.. that is warm.
Quoting 228. StormTrackerScott:



None as Nathan will be too weak at that point. What I am watching is that this record breaking MJO maybe set to make a second run at the Pacific in a couple of weeks as the MJO could skip the Indian Ocean and head back into the W-Pac. I blogged about that this morning as the models are interesting today regarding the MJO.

It appears this El-Nino is going to be the strongest since 1997. Bottomline those hoping for something to satisfy their needs for a weaker El-Nino are gone at this point. I say we top out at 1.8 to 1.9C at nino 3.4.


And? Nino 3.4 isnt nearly as relevant to our basin as regions 1 and 2 (and 3 to an extent). Even if that does happen, I'm not sure what point you're trying to drive here.

If the warming propagates east of that, then yeah. We have issues.
Quoting 244. KoritheMan:


And? Nino 3.4 isnt nearly as relevant to our basin as regions 1 and 2. Even if that does happen, I'm not sure what point you're trying to drive here.

If the warming propagates east of that, then yeah. We have issues.


Nino 3.4 is the defining region for the intensity of El Nino events?
Quoting 245. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nino 3.4 is the defining region for the intensity of El Nino events?
It is, but right now the majority of the equatorial warming is focused in the western part of the region, from 175 to about 160W. That could certainly change, but at least right now, that represents more of a Modiki signal than anything else.

I don't believe we have a good grasp on how ENSO is going to modify into hurricane season, so I'm not going to try. But objectively, the farther west the warming, the less basinwide shear we experience (although there could still be a lesser degree of upper air shear modulation if it becomes strong enough to modify the synoptic pattern over the US).
With El Nino don't throw out the baby with the bathwater!
Quoting 235. StormTrackerScott:



Well either Eric Blake was watching this blog earlier or he was on the same page as me.


Eric Blake@EricBlake12
@WSI_Energy @TheSteveCop what I want to know how fast it gets back into the wpac (if it "skips" over Indian Ocean) -- should be telling



Again, the MJO suddenly returning to the Pacific in a few weeks as you proclaimed isn't likely whatsoever, & is not the kind of extreme return frequency Eric Blake is referring to... If the RMM appears to "retrograde" as the GFS thinks (of course the GFS MJO forecasts in the western hemisphere especially are notoriously horrendous), it wouldn't have anything to do w/ the MJO itself, but a CCKW... A good example of this occurred last summer. Note the back-to-back twin CCKWs in July & August that projected onto the RMM enough to maintain amplitude in phase 6-7... I'm not saying this is what we'll see occur here, but in the improbable case that we do see the MJO appear to move back into the Pacific in a few weeks, a CCKW would be the cause.


Also, because the sample size of ENSO events we have to work since the start of the MJO record back in June 1974 is infinitesimal, you should exercise caution when correlating El Nino intensity w/ Pacific MJO intensity in the preceding spring, (even though some sort of correspondence most certainly exists)...

The 1982-83 El Nino, actually had relatively little, if any help from the MJO in the antecedent summer or spring



yet it is one of the top 3 El Ninos in the historical record along w/ 1997-98 of course & 1877-78...

You may also want to reconsider immediately jumping for joy at the +IOD in the Indian Ocean, (as the eastern IO is the primary source of interference for post 1997-98 El Ninos), it backfired horribly in 2006-07 & 1994-95...
Today is the 50th anniversary of the first spacewalk, by Alexey Arkhipovich Leonov. He also painted "Near the Moon" in 1967, which Arthur C. Clarke said inspired the opening of 2001: A Space Odyssey.



Quoting 249. BaltimoreBrian:

Today is the 50th anniversary of the first spacewalk, by Alexey Arkhipovich Leonov.


Nice...

What a day it will be when we put a man or woman on Mars.
You know a storm is small when ASCAT catches the whole thing.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #44
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY THREE (17U)
1:58 PM EST March 19 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Three located at 14.8S 147.0E or 185 kilometers east of Cape Flattery and 205 kilometers east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. Further intensification is expected before the system makes landfall as a category 4 cyclone, most likely between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to reach 260 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h currently extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas this evening and overnight, before extending inland to areas including Palmerville and Laura during Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to about 70 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation late tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Tides may just exceed the highest tide of the year on the coast south of Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas on the high tide on Friday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the coast between Coen and Cape Tribulation tonight, extending west through inland parts with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Nathan on Friday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning for abnormally high tides is current for the coast from Port Douglas to Innisfail.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for areas from Lockhart River to Port Douglas, extending inland to areas including Laura and Palmerville
Quoting 241. TimSoCal:



Most telling thing for me in this image is the IOD seems to want to reverse. I hope Levi doesn't mind me editing this:




For now, the eastern Indian Ocean warming & Maritime Continent cooling is just intraseasonal variance being almost directly implemented by the MJO.

This kind of SST change is very typical for phases 6-8...
Good evening

It's a drizzly 74 here on the island tonight.

I've been watching the Northern Lights on the Canadian Space Agency's site in Yellowknife, NWT this evening. (Am NEVER going to catch a glimpse of them over here...)

Link

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy


255. xcool



Bob Breck WVUE

1 hr · .



Hurricane Season Predictions

I know, we still have nearly 2 ½ months to go, but the numbers are coming out. Reading Jeff Masters’ (Weatherunderground) & Joe Bastardi’s (WeatherBell Analytics) blogs virtually agree that the 2015 season will be “below average” (7-9 named storms) with 1-2 major. Joey B. says above normal central Gulf waters might focus early season activity on the Gulf of Mexico? He believes our 10 year streak of no landfalling major (Cat.3 +) storm will end. That is a fairly safe prediction since the law of averages starts to factor in. Dr. Masters believes a strengthening El Nino will curtail the number of storms. But does any of that matter? I have always felt the early hurricane predictions are rather useless since they 1) have shown limited skill and 2) (more importantly) can’t tell where or when. I like the idea of below average numbers, but we have to prepare regardless of numbers. I’m too old to worry about the Hurricane Season until it arrives.


long time no see xcool. How goes it?
Hi Scott. I like the way Bob Breck thinks.
258. xcool
hey .doing good
Nathan may be about to rapidly intensify some more.
260. Hugo5
Next system in the pacific might get a designator today, this one is forming further south of were pam started life. Once this new system gets a little better organized it looks like it may travel over the islands that pam just recently hit, though much weaker strength.
Good morning with some very good news from Vanuatu in respect to the immediate death toll:

Vanuatu provides lessons in cyclone survival
Source: Reuters - Thu, 19 Mar 2015 07:37 GMT, Author: Reuters, By Stephen Coates
PORT VILA, March 19 (Reuters) - Villagers in Vanuatu buried food and fresh water as one of the strongest storms on record bore down on them, fleeing to churches, schools and even coconut drying kilns as 300 kph winds and massive seas tore their flimsy houses to the ground.
Despite reports of utter devastation six days after Cyclone Pam pummelled the impoverished South Pacific island nation, Vanuatu appears to be providing something of a lesson in how to survive a category 5 storm.
The United Nations says the official death toll is 11 and Prime Minister Joe Natuman told Reuters it would not rise significantly.
"The important thing is that the people survived," he said in an interview outside his office overlooking the hard-hit capital of Port Vila. "If the people survived, we can rebuild."
Officials had feared a spike in deaths once news came in from outer islands of the scattered archipelago and the low figure amazed aid workers and those who lived through the storm.
"It's absolutely unbelievable the death toll is so low," said Richard Barnes, 43, a property valuer from New Zealand who has lived near the capital Port Vila, on Efate island for seven years. ...


If you are interested, I still recommend to read the Humans-of-Vanuatu reports with really grim insights and photos from the outer islands. There is one shared post with photos "before" and "after" of a small and once green island which is now just a bare rock in the sea. - It will be a very long fight to ensure survival and improvement for the residents in the hard hit parts of Vanuatu.
Some weather and climate news from Africa from the very good collection "allAfrica.com":

Ethiopia: UN Agency Begins Relocation of 50,000 Flood-Affected Refugees in Ethiopia
UN News, March, 17
The United Nations refugee agency said today it has begun the relocation of more than 50,000 South Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia from flood-prone areas ahead of the rainy season, which is expected to start in late April.
"The refugees are being moved from the Leitchuor and Nip Nip refugee camps in the Gambella region, western Ethiopia. Last year, in August, both camps were severely hit by flood waters during unusually heavy seasonal rains, causing the Baro river to burst its banks," Karin de Gruijl, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), told reporters in Geneva.
"The first group of 377 refugees left in a convoy of 11 vehicles, including buses, ambulance, a luggage truck and security escort," she added.
The refugees received high energy biscuits and water as they boarded the buses for the 300-kilometer long journey, which takes about eight hours. A total of 51,316 refugees from flood-prone areas in the two camps will be relocated. The group from Nip Nip will be moved to the existing Pugnido camp, which currently hosts nearly 56,000 South Sudanese refugees. ...


Tanzania: Drip By Drip, Tanzania Farmers Learn to Cope With Drought
Thomson Reuters Foundation, 17 March 2015, By Kizito Makoye
Hai — Peter Chuwa has long flooded his paddy field using a canal that draws water from the river. These days, however, water is scarcer and growing rice this way is proving hard to sustain.
A period of drought set in two years ago, and the abundant water that once helped suppress weeds in his fields and assure him of a crop regardless of rainfall has disappeared, hurting his harvests and his income.
"I was very frustrated because my crops were drying up before harvest," he said. "It reached a point where I even struggled to feed my own family," Chuwa said.
Now, however, a drip irrigation system, introduced to help his village deal with worsening drought, is restoring his harvests, building his resilience to erratic weather and saving time, he says.
"You simply open the tap and leave the kit to supply water to the roots, unlike the traditional system, which takes a lot of time and energy," he said.
Under pressure from drought, the 65-year-old farmer at Kikavu Chini village, in Hai district in Tanzania's northern Kilimanjaro region, has switched to crops that need less water, including vegetables, maize, potatoes and beans. A drip irrigation system, which uses far less water, supplies plenty to grow those crops, he said.
Under a five-year-project supported by Catholic Relief Services, a global development agency, farmers in Kikavu Chini village are being trained to use drip Irrigation and other water management techniques as a coping strategy for drought. ...


Namibia: Huge Food Donation From Nigeria - for Drought-Stricken Namibia
17 March 2015
The Federal Government of Nigeria last week donated 300 tonnes of rice, 700 tonnes of maize and three tonnes of fish fillets to Namibia as part of a food consignment to help drought-stricken families.
Namibia has yet to make an official appeal for drought assistance to the international donor community though it could yet face a devastating drought because of erratic rains in the current rainy season, which would end in April.
Speaking at the handing over of the drought relief, Nigeria High Commissioner to Namibia, Dr Biodun Olorunfeni, said it was no longer news that Namibia was hit by a devastating drought in 2013 which caused extensive damage to the ecology and the death of livestock due to the non-availability of grazing and lack of water. ...
264. beell



click images for storm reports

Here are your local storm reports for March 1st through the 18th...in case you missed them.

It has been a bad month for several trees...and who could forget this memorable event back on the 11th?

2215 UNK
PANTEGO
BEAUFORT NC
3559 7666
CHAIR AND DOG HOUSE DESTROYED BY STRONG WINDS. (MHX)

The dog is reported to be in good condition but mourning the loss of his chair.
Quoting beell:



click images for storm reports

Here are your local storm reports for March 1st through the 18th...in case you missed them.

It has been a bad month for several trees...and who could forget this memorable event back on the 11th?

2215 UNK
PANTEGO
BEAUFORT NC
3559 7666
CHAIR AND DOG HOUSE DESTROYED BY STRONG WINDS. (MHX)

The dog is reported to be in good condition but mourning the loss of his chair.


That destroyed dog house made me think of the flying cow in the movie Twister.
266. beell
Quoting 265. Sfloridacat5:



That destroyed dog house made me think of the flying cow in the movie Twister.



The Moojita scale

M0 tornado: Cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the wind flow and become mildly annoyed.
M1: Cows are tipped over and can't get up.
M2: Cows begin rolling with the wind.
M3: Cows tumble and bounce.
M4: Cows become airborne.
M5: S T E A K.
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season looking like another dud. Tropical pattern looks like last year, not 95' or 05'
If you notice the wind anomalies below you can see that there has been a reversal of winds across the Eastern Pacific.

Another rise on the ESPI. Finally the atmosphere is has responded to El-Nino is all phases now. The ESPI just 4 weeks ago was -.70 to -.84

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.25
Why can't something be a respectable El nino like 2009 was? Why does it have to be huge and over the top and surpass 1997? What's up with the go big or go home attitude?
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:

If you notice the wind anomalies below you can see that there has been a reversal of winds across the Eastern Pacific.



There is some truth in it. Motion of tropical moisture in Central and East Pacific looks unusual, at least in my inexpert eyes:

Click to enlarge.
Andrew Freedman @afreedma
Euro model 10-day projection -this is a prescription for a stiff drink for easterners sick of winter




Good Morning. Here the NWS weather headlines for Conus and current look:


Wet weather continues in southern U.S., winter weather for mid-Atlantic and New England late week

Wet weather is expected to continue in the South on Thursday, with locally heavy rain and thunderstorms. The precipitation will begin to expand eastward late Thursday into Friday. By late Thursday into Friday, wintry precipitation is possible in the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 19 2015 - 12Z Sat Mar 21 2015

***Showers and thunderstorms expected across the southern states***

***Rain and late season snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast***

***Another strong cold front reaching the northern Plains by Friday***

The general flow pattern across the country over the next few days should
be mainly zonal across the southern half, and an amplifying pattern across
the north. One of the interesting things during this forecast period will
be a developing surface low that develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast.
With just enough cold air available, a late season snowfall is becoming
likely from eastern Ohio to southern New England, including many of the
major cities along the I-95 corridor. Most of the accumulation should
occur on grassy and forested surfaces. Rain is the expected precipitation
type farther to the south across much of Virginia and West Virginia.

Across the southern tier of the country, an upper level low across
northwest Mexico, along with its atmospheric instability across the
southwest states, will help to generate afternoon and evening
thunderstorms late Thursday. This system advects Pacific moisture aloft
across Mexico and over the southern Plains, with a return flow off the
Gulf of Mexico closer to the surface. This pattern leads to a broadening
area of showers and storms stretching from the Desert Southwest to the
Gulf Coast states. Across the northern U.S., a reinforcing surge of cold
air arrives on Friday for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest behind a
strong cold front.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic

Quoting 271. barbamz:


There is some truth in it. Motion of tropical moisture in Central and East Pacific looks unusual, at least in my inexpert eyes:

Click to enlarge.


We didn't see a sustained Westerly Wind Burst event last year and is the reason why El-Nino faltered. This is we have a whole different animal across the Pacific as it appears the Pacific has went under a major overhaul the last 7 to 8 days. El-Nino's that strengthen or develop in spring typically are stronger in nature. Heck we aren't even officially in Spring yet. Good news the blog should be happy as this will set the wheels in motion for La Nina next Summer which is what I said last Fall which I think many on here were about to lose their marbles infact I think some did actually. Kinda funny really.
Quoting 266. beell:



The Moojita scale

M0 tornado: Cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the wind flow and become mildly annoyed.
M1: Cows are tipped over and can't get up.
M2: Cows begin rolling with the wind.
M3: Cows tumble and bounce.
M4: Cows become airborne.
M5: S T E A K.


M1 Cows fart more methane, enhancing AGW, due to reduction in external air pressure.
M2 Cows start to rotate. Methane expulsion increases, causing jet propulsion.
M3 Combination of rotation and jet propulsion causes lift off and a spiral trajectory.
M4 Cows aren't in Kansas any more.
M5 Cows fall into the Pacific, and StormTrackerScott is adamant that this proves that a strong El Nino is on the way.
2013 - 2014 Winter Season Snow Totals
Snow continued into mid April for some areas of new England last year.

Please stop dissing the cows on here this morning............................

Breakfast
Quoting 250. Dakster:



Nice...

What a day it will be when we put a man or woman on Mars.


I already have a list of names of people I would like to see there.
TWC is calling for 3-5" of snow for NYC arriving (peaking in intensity) just before the evening rush hour tomorrow.
Right now (turn on the audio) Nice thunderstorm in Southern Africa, live in Wild Earth TV at Arathusa Safari Lodge
Arathusa Safari Lodge is unique and highly sought after by visitors because of its prime location within the Sabi Sand Reserve, adjacent to the unfenced Kruger National Park. Together these two areas comprise one of South Africa’s most incredible and pristine preserved wilderness sanctuaries.
This camera overlooks the waterhole and shares its many visitors with the world. It is controlled by a group of volunteer zoomies who work hard to provide the best possible viewing experience.

Quoting 277. weathermanwannabe:

Please stop dissing the cows on here this morning............................

Breakfast


Gotta love animals selling out other animals for food consumption. :)
Slightly cooler weather forecast for next week but still warm.
Everyday this month has been 80 degrees or warmer here in Fort Myers, which is pretty rare. I personally don't remember a March this warm since I've been living here. Average high so far this month has been around 86 degrees.

40% chance of rain on Monday. Miss that chance and it's back to dry weather.
Officially only .05" for the month. 0.0" here at the house.

7 Day for Fort Myers
Quoting 283. Sfloridacat5:

Slightly cooler weather forecast for next week but still warm.
Everyday this month has been 80 degrees or warmer here in Fort Myers, which is pretty rare. I personally don't remember a March this warm since I've been living here. Average high for the month around 86 degrees.

40% chance of rain on Monday. Miss that chance and it's back to dry weather.
Officially only .05" for the month. 0.0" here at the house.

7 Day for Fort Myers



I have had 0.58" so far at my house this month. The Tampa reporting station is at 0.14". This comes on the heels of a very wet February, but it sure doesn't take long for everything to look dry around here.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I have had 0.58" so far at my house this month. The Tampa reporting station is at 0.14". This comes on the heels of a very wet February, but it sure doesn't take long for everything to look dry around here.


Yeah, the combination of warm weather and bright sunshine can do a number on your plants. We have to water our flowers and potted plants several times a week or they will just wilt and die.
Quoting 190. Climate175:




12Z GFS 3/18 had a coastal suggestion also for Mid Atlantic. 00Z and 06Z don't have it though. They are still climatologically possible though until the first days of April.

On March 15, 2012 I planted a tomato plant outside in bare (and already warm) soil and it thrived growing 6" and setting a fruit by March 25 (after which I had to protect against one freeze 3/27 and a few radiative frosts until 4/14.). Overall though this plant did well. The rest went in in mid April that year.

This is not another 2012 :-(
Quoting 285. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, the combination of warm weather and bright sunshine can do a number on your plants. We have to water our flowers and potted plants several times a week or they will just wilt and die.


Still dealing with the combination of intense sunshine and frozen plants. Rapid thaw this way is not good for them.
April Showers bring May Flowers

By FL will see about 50% of normal rainfall you mean like that is alot for an El Nino year? During in El Nino in the 60s, '82-83 & in 1997-98...it just quit raining in a part of FL, usually after a really wet winter & then caught fire the next summer. 1998 they sent the tourists home & at one point evacuated all of Volusia County..home to Daytona Beach for July 4th weekend.

hey skye.......what i was referring to...was a post of scott's that had a model showing the tropics would be dead july through september.....while looking at the model graph...i also noticed that it showed florida at about 50 percent of normal precipitation...i remembered this was a topic on the blog last summer...as many..including myself.....thought that due to a lack of tropical systems during an el nino....florida would have less rain....in looking at it though....i and others last year...found out that rain is slightly higher in most areas of florida during that time frame....i don't have an answer for why....last summer i looked at it from the angle of weak, moderate and strong el nino's....and although during weak and moderate el nino's there's been at least one quadrant with below normal rainfall for the year...the average has been above normal.....strong el ninos have always seen an above average rainfall throughout the state...so when i was told i wasn't well versed on the subject...i had to pull out my handy dandy el nino notebook....and find the site i had found that details el nino precip and temperatures for the whole CONUS.....you can see what el nino impacts have in your area here
I have had 0.58" so far at my house this month. The Tampa reporting station is at 0.14". This comes on the heels of a very wet February, but it sure doesn't take long for everything to look dry around here.

we're at 150 percent of normal to date with more rain expected through saturday...the totals aren't much...but we're hopeful this will be a wet year to help the aquifiers and surrounding resevoirs
Quoting 289. ricderr:

By FL will see about 50% of normal rainfall you mean like that is alot for an El Nino year? During in El Nino in the 60s, '82-83 & in 1997-98...it just quit raining in a part of FL, usually after a really wet winter & then caught fire the next summer. 1998 they sent the tourists home & at one point evacuated all of Volusia County..home to Daytona Beach for July 4th weekend.

hey skye.......what i was referring to...was a post of scott's that had a model showing the tropics would be dead july through september.....while looking at the model graph...i also noticed that it showed florida at about 50 percent of normal precipitation...i remembered this was a topic on the blog last summer...as many..including myself.....thought that due to a lack of tropical systems during an el nino....florida would have less rain....in looking at it though....i and others last year...found out that rain is slightly higher in most areas of florida during that time frame....i don't have an answer for why....last summer i looked at it from the angle of weak, moderate and strong el nino's....and although during weak and moderate el nino's there's been at least one quadrant with below normal rainfall for the year...the average has been above normal.....strong el ninos have always seen an above average rainfall throughout the state...so when i was told i wasn't well versed on the subject...i had to pull out my handy dandy el nino notebook....and find the site i had found that details el nino precip and temperatures for the whole CONUS.....you can see what el nino impacts have in your area here


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/nino/tpaavgrai n.png
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 259. Skyepony:

Nathan may be about to rapidly intensify some more.

Smog alarm for western Europe ...
Edit: Too late, lol. I take it to the new blog.
Quoting 270. washingtonian115:

Why can't something be a respectable El nino like 2009 was? Why does it have to be huge and over the top and surpass 1997? What's up with the go big or go home attitude?
I think maybe a blogger or two on hear would like to see a lot of death and destruction that a super duper Nino would cause. I hope we have something come along that changes the pattern the Atlantic has been in for the last few years. Be it Nino, Nina, what ever just as long as we start seeing some nice storms in the Atlantic.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/nino/tpaavgrai n.png


hey matt.....one of the things i noticed last year...was how much information there is out there for florida as relating to el nino....california also has a ton of information about how their climate changes with el nino....el paso?.....we only know how to spell el nino....ta da da boom!
It has been very unusual here in west Texas. Not much wind at all. The tumble weeds are still attached on ground at this time of year. Never seen it so quiet, ever. My guess more hail this spring-summer if it continues.
with a strong El Niño what will this mean for the weather pattern in the northeast this coming winter say from northern NJ to northern Ma