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Cyclone Pam’s Toll Remains Uncertain; Great Plains Roast in Record Winter Heat

By: Bob Henson 3:14 PM GMT on March 17, 2015

Four days after Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam unleashed its fury on the island nation of Vanuatu, the full extent of damage and casualties is not yet known. Unsettled weather made it impossible for relief flights to reach many of the hardest-hit islands until Tuesday. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs attributed at least 11 deaths to the storm, revising its toll downward from an earlier estimate of 24 deaths. Somewhat ironically, the nation’s president, Baldwin Lonsdale, was attending the third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan, when Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu. In a news conference before returning home, Lonsdale referred to the cyclone as “a monster, a monster. It's a setback for the government and for the people of Vanuatu.” At its peak, Pam's 165 mph winds made it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the waters east of Australia, and one of only two such storms to make landfall--the other being Cyclone Zoe of 2002, which struck the Solomon Islands. Pam and Zoe are the two most intense cyclones observed in the region since records began in 1970.

Some of the worst damage is expected to be found on the southern islands of Erromango (population 2,000) and Tanna (population 29,000), which were struck head-on by the stronger southeastern portion of the eyewall. Gusts may have topped 160 mph on the western sides of these islands, according to analyses by the British firm Tropical Storm Risk. On Tuesday, Australian military planes reported that more than 80 percent of structures on Tanna Island were partially or completely destroyed. The storm’s weaker southwest eyewall hit the island of Efate, and it appears the capital city, Port Vila, was just far enough west to avoid the worst winds. Still, aerial photos indicate many homes in Port Vila were destroyed, and some 15,000 people on Efate are homeless due to the storm.


Figure 1. This resident of Port Vila, Vanuatu, was injured when hit by masonry due to a shipping container breaking through a concrete wall during Cyclone Pam. Image credit: MR Roderick J. Mackenzie/New Zealand Defence Force, via Getty Images.


How you can help
Relief efforts for Cyclone Pam are still in the process of being organized, but food and water are among the most urgent requirements. The Weather Channel posted this set of agencies that are already welcoming donations to help those affected by Cyclone Pam:
• Red Cross Australia | New Zealand
• UNICEF
Australia | New Zealand
• Oxfam Australia | New Zealand
TEAR Fund
CARE USA
World Vision
Save the Children
Act for Peace

Was climate change a factor?
While there is no sign of any significant increase in tropical cyclone activity across the southwest Pacific in recent decades, Cyclone Pam developed over waters that were up to 2°C warmer than average, boosting the storm’s potential strength. The rise in sea level due to warmer oceans also exacerbates any ocean-related flooding produced by tropical cyclones. At Mashable, Andrew Freedman posted this comprehensive look at the connections between Cyclone Pam and climate change.

Records wilt after another day of summer-like heat across Central Plains
The hottest late-winter airmass on record across the central Great Plains sent temperatures on Monday to absurd values for mid-March. As a trough of low pressure strengthened over the northern Plains, westerly winds were driven downslope from the Colorado Rockies. Already very warm for the elevation and time of year, the air mass warmed even more as it descended toward lower elevations. Both Nebraska and Iowa saw the only 90°F temperatures known to have occurred before the spring equinox in more than a century of record-keeping at the states’ major reporting stations. The heat also persisted in California, where downtown Los Angeles endured its fourth 90°F day in a row--the first time any March has produced four 90°F days, consecutive or otherwise, in records going back to 1877.


Figure 2. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s were widespread across the central U.S. on Monday, March 16. Image credit: NOAA, via Florida State University.

Among the Monday records compiled by Jon Erdman and Nick Wiltgen of the Weather Channel:

All-time March records:
North Platte, NE: 91°F (previous record 88°F on Mar. 31, 1946)
Norfolk, NE: 92°F (tied record 92°F set on Mar. 22, 1910)

Grand Island, NE: 90°F (tied record set eight times before)
Warmest so early in the year:

Lincoln, NE: 90°F
Sioux City, IA: 90°F
Broken Bow, NE: 90°F

Goodland, KS: 89°F
Concordia, KS: 89°F
Omaha, NE: 88°F
Des Moines, IA: 84°F (tie)
Denver, CO: 81°F
Colorado Springs, CO: 80°F

Canada's Charlottetown and Saint John trump Boston in snowiest-winter sweepstakes
The same nor’easter that put Boston over the top for its snowiest winter on record produced the same result--with much more drama--in the largest cities of two Canadian provinces. By late Monday, the paralyzing storm had delivered an estimated 55 cm (21.7”) to the provincial capital of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown. The city's official total snowfall on Sunday of 47.6 cm (18.7") sent the city’s snow total for the winter to 463 cm (182”), almost twice the total observed in Boston. Charlottetown’s previous seasonal record, 451.3 cm (177.7”), had been set just last winter. In the province of New Brunswick, Saint John climbed to a seasonal total of 431 cm (170”) on Sunday, beating the record of 424 cm (167”) set in 1962–63. Yet another storm will paste the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday, bringing as much as 20 cm (8”) of additional snow to Charlottetown.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Several feet of snow can be found in the backyards of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, where the latest snowstorm pushed the city’s seasonal snowfall total above 15 feet. Image credit: Ann Thurlow.

tropical cyclone Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Update Bob...
Thanks for the blog Bob Henson. Appreciate all you do!!!!
This was posted to the other blog sorry

Good Day Everyone, and Happy St Patrick's Day to you all.
Now I was watching the weather Channel and they were talking
about this slow Tornado Season and if we could get through this
March with out a Tornado or even a Warning. Of course I said "nope'
because I see at least 1 maybe 2 by Thursday either in Alabama and
or Georgia might even see one in Mississippi....
Just wondering what you all think....
Thanks Bob...
Quoting 3. taco2me61:

This was posted to the other blog sorry

Good Day Everyone, and Happy St Patrick's Day to you all.
Now I was watching the weather Channel and they were talking
about this slow Tornado Season and if we could get through this
March with out a Tornado or even a Warning. Of course I said "nope'
because I see at least 1 maybe 2 by Thursday either in Alabama and
or Georgia might even see one in Mississippi....
Just wondering what you all think....


Interesting. I wonder if el nino is causing this quiet tornado season. Greg Forbes, and Reed Timmer are definitely probably not happy.
Thanks Mr. Henson. Those are some really impressive numbers reached in the midwest. Interestingly, I'm seeing 90F in northwest Iowa and 64F in southwest Minnesota. That is an impressive range over a relatively short distance.
Thx Bob.

We could use some rain here in Central Florida. The pollen is killing me on the golf courses.
the pacific side of latin america is vulnerable to storm damage just like the folks in the s. pacific. millions live in shacks that they call home. this is especially true in nicaraqua el salvador where shanty towns meet the pacific. .
Thank You for the update Mr. Henson and good news if the death toll remains as low as possible from Pam.

As a practical matter, the biggest killer from a tropical storm is storm surge (drowning related deaths) and assuming that many folks were able to reach higher ground, above the surge, that greatly enhances your chance of surviving a strong storm even assuming that you are hunkered down under debris or a collapsed house/structure for several hours with howling rains and winds. I cannot imagine the nightmare of laying low to the ground under "rubble" from a collapsed wooden home for 6-12 hours waiting for the winds and rain to subside but that is exactly what probably happened across the Vanuatu Islands. The harder issue will be to account for those folks who may have been swept away by storm surge or who were killed as the result of flying debris or collapsed homes right on top of them.

Thanks for posting the active relief organizations; even a small donation can purchase a few cases of drinking water.
I expect that the twin phenomena of record snowfalls and record high temperatures will continue and increase year after year. Snowfall records will be broken, and high temperature records will be broken, on an almost yearly basis as the average global high and low temperatures go up. The only unknown is how quickly the change will happen, or the rate of change. That's where the deniers get their fodder - when scientists or others postulate that by such and such a year, this or that will happen. I feel that there are factors that, by themselves, don't seem to make much difference, but when put together with all other factors, make things happen differently than what even the best forecasters and models predict. Unfortunately, some deniers think that the scientists have to have some absolute knowledge of what will happen or it's all a hoax. The reality is that there's a great amount of wiggle room and margins of error that should be accepted as normal for a growing body of scientific knowledge.
Quoting 5. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Interesting. I wonder if el nino is causing this quiet tornado season. Greg Forbes, and Reed Timmer are definitely probably not happy.


I have to say this is the 3rd year for a slow and or Low Tornado Season....
Not sure if El-nino has anything to do with it or not....
Quoting taco2me61:


I have to say this is the 3rd year for a slow and or Low Tornado Season....
Not sure if El-nino has anything to do with it or not....


El Nino was not here last year or the year before. As of now it is only mild. Later in the summer it could strengthen or fizzle. No one knows.
Quoting 11. taco2me61:



I have to say this is the 3rd year for a slow and or Low Tornado Season....
Not sure if El-nino has anything to do with it or not....


I wonder what the planetary alignment is saying? In the meantime it may be best to go out and get a new rabbit's foot.
Quoting 13. Drakoen:



I wonder what the planetary alignment is saying? In the meantime it may be best to go out and get a new rabbit's foot.


LOL
Anyone following the solar storm today? Very unexpected, and very significant, strongest of the solar cycle so far. Would not be surprised to here about some disruptions, but more likely just some spectacular aurora displays.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08
Serial Number: 18
Issue Time: 2015 Mar 17 1401 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8
Threshold Reached: 2015 Mar 17 1358 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.
Quoting 13. Drakoen:



I wonder what the planetary alignment is saying? In the meantime it may be best to go out and get a new rabbit's foot.


Nah I just want "Chase" this year either..... No reason to chase if there is nothing to Chase....
j/s

Taco :o)
I have to say this is the 3rd year for a slow and or Low Tornado Season....
Not sure if El-nino has anything to do with it or not....


funny you should ask that.....saw it in the news this morning...

Could El Niño quash tornadoes?
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 4:02 p.m. EDT March 16, 2015
The El Reno Wedge
ts know that El Niño tends to subdue Atlantic hurricanes, and a new study says it could do the same to spring tornadoes across the South.

"We can forecast how active the spring tornado season will be based on the state of El Niño or La Niña in December or even earlier," said John Allen, a Columbia University research scientist and lead author of the study.
Quoting yoboi:


The predictions with AGW is that there would be more severe weather and majors hitting the U.S. Maybe more studies needed???
Or perhaps just more reading comprehension classes??? No credible person ever predicted more "majors hitting the U.S.", so I'm not sure where that came from. Of course, there *have* been numerous predictions of more severe weather, and that's precisely what's happening almost everywhere across the globe--and even right here in the USA: unprecedented warmth and drought in California; extreme and bizarre heat in the Midwest; extreme cold and historical snowfalls in the Northeast. And so on. A person would have to be fairly dense to not see what's happening.
Quoting 15. yoboi:



The predictions with AGW is that there would be more severe weather and majors hitting the U.S. Maybe more studies needed???

Morning all! Tornadoes and major hurricanes are not the only forms of severe weather! Flooding rains, blizzards, intense drought could all be considered severe! In addition, there are other places in the world outside of the U.S. And the last time I checked, many of these places are experiencing a upswing in severe weather. Unless, of course, you don't consider places like the Phillipines, Vauatu, and the entire continent of Europe as part of the globe! The prediction was not specific to the U.S.
Also, a note on El Niño. Whether I agree with STS or not, and I do think we are headed for at least a moderate one, I would think that those of us who do want a hurricane to track in the Atlantic might actually want one! Maybe then, after it clears out, we will see our vertical stability or instability numbers return to levels we need for more, and more organized, tropical development!
Happy St. Pat's Day to all my fellow Irishmen!

Did ya know the Irish American population is seven times larger than the population of Ireland?

Quoting 11. taco2me61:



I have to say this is the 3rd year for a slow and or Low Tornado Season....
Not sure if El-nino has anything to do with it or not....
The tornado season should start ramping up by the middle to end of April and continue very active through May, according to JB.
Quoting 13. Drakoen:



I wonder what the planetary alignment is saying? In the meantime it may be best to go out and get a new rabbit's foot.


Neptune is in the 3rd quadrant, while the Kuiper Belt's fourth largest space rock's solar facing tallest peak is signaling a return of the phrase "jimmy jammies", which clearly indicates the eye of a CAT 3 is imminent within the greater Miami region by mid-August.
25. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


What that for

What not to understand in that

sorry I misunderstood you
Shaping up to be the first 80 degree day of the year, already 78.
Quoting 24. LongIslandBeaches:



Neptune is in the 3rd quadrant, while the Kuiper Belt's fourth largest space rock's solar facing tallest peak is signaling a return of the phrase "jimmy jammies", which clearly indicates the eye of a CAT 3 is imminent within the greater Miami region by mid-August.

So there is a possibility of a cat 3 hitting near Miami in mid-late August? Most forecasters show that it will be hurricane Danny. That would make the 2015 hurricane season a little ahead of schedule.
Quoting taco2me61:
This was posted to the other blog sorry

Good Day Everyone, and Happy St Patrick's Day to you all.
Now I was watching the weather Channel and they were talking
about this slow Tornado Season and if we could get through this
March with out a Tornado or even a Warning. Of course I said "nope'
because I see at least 1 maybe 2 by Thursday either in Alabama and
or Georgia might even see one in Mississippi....
Just wondering what you all think....
A tornado in Alabama? On Thursday? Not very likely. Whatever small chance exists would be more like tomorrow afternoon or evening. We might get a few elevated thunderstorms but not much more than that. Mississippi might have a slightly better chance but even there, the instability is just not going to be very high. We went most of last week with better instability parameters than we'll have tomorrow and didn't manage to squeeze one thunderstorm out of it. I'm just hoping I get some actual rain. There hasn't been much of that either.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:

So there is a possibility of a cat 3 hitting near Miami in mid-late August? Most forecasters show that it will be hurricane Danny. That would make the 2015 hurricane season a little ahead of schedule.
Grrr...it was a joke. Any "forecaster" saying a hurricane will hit Miami in August is pulling things out of...somewhere. We're not going to know much about hurricane season until we're in hurricane season. It's a nice day outside. Weed or cut the lawn and catch some rays.
Meanwhile, s***ts getting real in California. While some sit here continuing to deny climate change is happening. Wake up and smell the fresh roses or CO2 roses. Hoping and praying this El Nino bring some much needed rain to California.

Quoting 24. LongIslandBeaches:



Neptune is in the 3rd quadrant, while the Kuiper Belt's fourth largest space rock's solar facing tallest peak is signaling a return of the phrase "jimmy jammies", which clearly indicates the eye of a CAT 3 is imminent within the greater Miami region by mid-August.
Only a cat 3?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Anyone following the solar storm today? Very unexpected, and very significant, strongest of the solar cycle so far. Would not be surprised to here about some disruptions, but more likely just some spectacular aurora displays.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08
Serial Number: 18
Issue Time: 2015 Mar 17 1401 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8
Threshold Reached: 2015 Mar 17 1358 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.
It would be pretty neat to see an aurora in Alabama. Not likely, but pretty neat. HF radio conditions have been bad for the last 48 hours, especially below 14 MHz. I don't think the current flare is big enough to cause power problems but you never know until the flare is completely played out.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Meanwhile, s***ts getting real in California. While some sit here continuing to deny climate change is happening. Wake up and smell the fresh roses or CO2 roses. Hoping and praying this El Nino bring some much needed rain to California.

Gt, do you really believe climate change is causing the droughts in California, you know there have been longer and more severe droughts in California in the recent past.
Meanwhile, s***ts getting real in California. While some sit here continuing to deny climate change is happening. Wake up and smell the fresh roses or CO2 roses. Hoping and praying this El Nino bring some much needed rain to California.

while i believe in climate change....most experts are not attributing the cal drought to it......

NOAA: Climate Change Did Not Cause Calif. Drought

Published: December 8th, 2014
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Bobby Magill By Bobby Magill

Climate change is usually discussed in extremes: Epic heat in Australia. A deadly heat wave in Europe. Hurricane Sandy grinding New York to a halt.

The extreme California drought? Maybe not so much.

A new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study released Monday shows that the 3-year California drought may have been caused by natural variability and not necessarily human-caused climate change.
Quoting 33. NativeSun:


There is also a drought ongoing in Brazil, but keep denying the impacts of climate change though.
Quoting NativeSun:
Gt, do you really believe climate change is causing the droughts in California, you know there have been longer and more severe droughts in California in the recent past.
1) Define "recent". The state hasn't experienced anything like this in many, many centuries.

2) It's not just Caleb: check here. Or here. Or here. Or here...

3) The last time California experienced a drought akin to the current one, it had a population of a few thousand Native Americans, not tens of millions of water-reliant people. It also wasn't the production center of half the nation's fruits and nuts. It also wasn't the world's high-tech center. So any comparisons to past droughts so far as effects are concerened are null and void and--frankly--a little silly.

4) It's incorrect--and intellectually lazy--to claim that because something happened in the past for one reason, it can't happen now for another reason.
Amazon Deforestation May Be The Cause Of Brazil Drought, Scientists Say
AP | By BRAD BROOKS and ADRIANA GOMEZ LICON
Posted: 12/04/2014 12:06 am EST Updated: 02/04/2015 5:59 am EST
AMAZON DEFORESTATIONA
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SAO PAULO (AP) — Vera Lucia de Oliveira looks to the sky, hoping for any sign of rain.

For weeks, the taps in her home have run dry as Sao Paulo has suffered its worst drought in eight decades, with rainfall at one-third the normal level. Without heavy and prolonged rain, the megacity of 23 million could soon run out of water, experts warn.

"We are always thinking: The rain is coming, the rain is coming," said Oliveira.

But it doesn't, and a growing consensus of scientists believes the answer to what is happening to Oliveria and her neighbors lies not in the sky above their heads but in decades of deforestation of Amazon rainforest hundreds of miles away.

The cutting of trees, scientists say, is hindering the immense jungle's ability to absorb carbon from the air — and to pull enough water through tree roots to supply gigantic "sky rivers" that move more moisture than the Amazon river itself. More than two-thirds of the rain in southeastern Brazil, home to 40 percent of its population, comes from these sky rivers, studies estimate. When they dry up, drought follows, scientists believe.
Lets keep arguing about whether or not humans are causing the current drought in California. Good game plan. Same thinking as arguing about who lit the house on fire instead of putting it out. If California made a plan to accept the worst case scenario for drought in the state and then live within the means of that plan, the problems would be slim to none. Instead, we will just point fingers and hope things get better.
Quoting NativeSun:
The tornado season should start ramping up by the middle to end of April and continue very active through May, according to JB.

JB is also comparing the setup to 2011, which would be the worst case scenario. It's hype, but what's new from him?
"“The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.”

Griffin, D. and K.J. Anchukaitis. 2014. How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought? Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062433

“Long-term changes caused by increasing trace gas concentrations are now contributing to a modest signal of soil moisture depletion, mainly over the U.S. Southwest, thereby prolonging the duration and severity of naturally occurring droughts.”

Seager, R. and M. Hoerling, 2014: Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts. J. Climate. Vol. 27, 4581–4606. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00329.1

“Although the recent drought may have significant contributions from natural variability, it is notable that hydrological changes in the region over the last 50 years cannot be fully explained by natural variability, and instead show the signature of anthropogenic climate change.”

Cayan et al., 2010. Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21stcentury drought, PNAS, Vol. 107, December 14, 2010, pp 21271-21276

“Climate change is linked to CA’s drought by two mechanisms: rising temperatures and changing atmospheric patterns conducive to failing rains. The first link is firmly established, and there is considerable and growing body of evidence supporting the second.”

Swain, D. L., M. Tsiang, M. Haugen, D. Singh, A. Charland, B. Rajaratnam, and N.S. Diffenbaugh. 2014. “The extraordinary California drought of 2013-2014: Character, context, and the role of climate change.” BAMS, Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014 (Special Supplement), pp. S3-S7.

There is growing observational data, physical analysis of possible mechanisms, and model agreement that human-caused climate change is strengthening atmospheric circulation patterns in a way “which implies that the periodic and inevitable droughts California will experience will exhibit more severity…” “there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought.”

S.-Y. Wang, L. Hipps, R. R. Gillies, and J-H. Yoon. 2014. Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013-2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint. Geophy. Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 9, pp. 3220-3226, May 16, 2014.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/20 14GL059748/pdf

AghaKouchak, A., L. Cheng, O. Mazdiyasni, and A. Farahmand. 2014. Global Warming and Changes in Risk of Concurrent Climate Extremes: Insights from the 2014 California Drought. Geophysical Research Letters (in press). DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062308

“Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.”

Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, G. van der Schrier, P. D. Jones, J. Barichivich, K. R. Briffa, and J. Sheffield, 2014. Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Climate Change, 4, 17-22,doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2067.

All models, regardless of their ability to simulate the base-period drought statistics, project significant future increases in drought frequency, severity, and extent over the course of the 21st century under the SRES A1B emissions scenario.

Wehner et al., 2011. Projections of future drought in the continental United States and Mexico. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, December 2011, pp 1359-1377.

“Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera… the snowpack declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability. The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western United States.”

Pederson et al., 2011. The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera. Science, Vol. 333, 15 July 2011, pp 332-335."

No one is arguing that climate change CAUSED the drought, however, just about everyone agrees climate change has had INFLUENCES on the drought.

Quoting 32. sar2401:

It would be pretty neat to see an aurora in Alabama. Not likely, but pretty neat. HF radio conditions have been bad for the last 48 hours, especially below 14 MHz. I don't think the current flare is big enough to cause power problems but you never know until the flare is completely played out.


I guess I better look outside tonight.

Would be wild to see Auroras in the daylight too.
Thanks for the update!

Meanwhile Tc Nathan performs "Return to sender" like a real Australian boomerang.

Latest Aussi track (notice: cat 3 in the Australian scale means cat 1 in Saffir-Simpson Scale: Link), nevertheless a threat for the coast of Queensland.

Source with more.
Well, I'll take it.


A long ride on I-4 is on tap today to visit Clearwater.
No one is arguing that climate change CAUSED the drought, however, just about everyone agrees climate change has had INFLUENCES on the drought.

the problem is naga....that people are saying just that...and was even stated thusly a few posts ago...now if this was a climate denier...and they posted an incorrect statement...this blog would erupt with evidence...showing the position was wrong...and ridicule for the audacity to post such nonsense

the problem as i see it though....is too often we allow incorrect information to be posted by those of which we agree with their position....as we know their intentions are well meant.....this makes us no different except for position of course...than climate deniers....as facts don't count as long as what is said supports our message
Thank you for mentioning what is going on here in Atlantic Canada! It has been relentless! More coming tonight and tomorrow! It will be May till we see the ground. :O
Quoting 44. ricderr:

No one is arguing that climate change CAUSED the drought, however, just about everyone agrees climate change has had INFLUENCES on the drought.

the problem is naga....that people are saying just that...and was even stated thusly a few posts ago...now if this was a climate denier...and they posted an incorrect statement...this blog would erupt with evidence...showing the position was wrong...and ridicule for the audacity to post such nonsense

the problem as i see it though....is too often we allow incorrect information to be posted by those of which we agree with their position....as we know their intentions are well meant.....this makes us no different except for position of course...than climate deniers....as facts don't count as long as what is said supports our message


I meant no one in the actively publishing scientific community is arguing that. My post was addressed to both sides of the blog argument. Attribution to climate change is very hard to prove, however to use the old baseball analogy. We can't say for certain which individual home run Barry Bonds hit was due to steroids, but they were certainly influenced by steroid use. This drought probably was parts natural variability and parts anthropogenic climate change, it would be silly to think that it is an either or proposition.

I'll call everyone out, I don't care. :)
Been a long time since I saw an aurora in S C IL, hopefully a lot of green, maybe a little orange for St Padraic's :) The gentlemen in kilts in Dogtown better have a lot of starch, winds here to their N are out of the N to NE @ 15-25 w/ gusts over 30. At least they have Forest Park's trees N of them to help break it a little (or swirl it worse). We're supposed to get in lower 50s here, but currently lower 40s w/ dew pts in 30s and pressure around 30.3". Liked the % Irish map, never saw that before. A little surprised Sangamon County (Spfld, IL) wasn't a little darker green.

Happy St Paddy's!
Naga5000 - Don't hold back, tell me how you really feel.
Quoting 43. wxgeek723:

Well, I'll take it.


A long ride on I-4 is on tap today to visit Clearwater.
a lot of festivities around Clearwater today for st patty's day,have fun
Quoting tlawson48:
Lets keep arguing about whether or not humans are causing the current drought in California. Good game plan. Same thinking as arguing about who lit the house on fire instead of putting it out. If California made a plan to accept the worst case scenario for drought in the state and then live within the means of that plan, the problems would be slim to none. Instead, we will just point fingers and hope things get better.
In a grimly ironic sort of way, California's water woes will be sorted out. The population just needs to drop to what it was in 1950 (10 million) from its present 38 million. As less water is available, more people will leave. In the long run, it's self-adjusting, but it's going to be a pretty wrenching adjustment.
Quoting tlawson48:
Lets keep arguing about whether or not humans are causing the current drought in California. Good game plan. Same thinking as arguing about who lit the house on fire instead of putting it out. If California made a plan to accept the worst case scenario for drought in the state and then live within the means of that plan, the problems would be slim to none. Instead, we will just point fingers and hope things get better.
It's not an either/or problem. After the firefighters extinguish the blaze, investigators come along to establish cause. That's so the problem can be remedied, whether that remedy is changing the way wiring is done, or locking up the neighborhood arsonist. So it's *extremely* important to both mitigate the effects of drought (through preparation, conservation, and adaptation) and fix blame so necessary changes can be made.
Quoting 48. Dakster:

Naga5000 - Don't hold back, tell me how you really feel.


I feel great! :) How's Alaska treating you?
Quoting 52. Naga5000:



I feel great! :) How's Alaska treating you?


Awesome. I love it. I have to go back to South Florida at one point and I am dreading it. Whatever it takes I am going to make Alaska my "forever" home. Unless California dries up and they Californicate Alaska.
Seeing some of the destruction these days is mind boggling.

As for El Nino and its effect, it doesnt appear to have as significant of an impact on my area (Greater Kansas CIty)

What bothers me the most, is why they have not poured more research into studying the different items that we know have an effect on weather. I know small groups do it at the universities etc. IPCC probably does some as well. I just believe more can be done study wise.

I have often heard our local mets talk about El Nino in my area = less storms but tend to be slightly more powerful. They do not have a huge set of recorded history to look at though and they point that out.
Quoting 47. dabirds:

Been a long time since I saw an aurora in S C IL, hopefully a lot of green, maybe a little orange for St Padraic's :) The gentlemen in kilts in Dogtown better have a lot of starch, winds here to there N are out of the N to NE @ 15-25 w/ gusts over 30. At least they have Forest Park's trees N of them to help break it a little (or swirl it worse). We're supposed to get in lower 50s here, but currently lower 40s w/ dew pts in 30s and pressure around 30.3". Liked the % Irish map, never saw that before. A little surprised Sangamon County (Spfld, IL) wasn't a little darker green.

Happy St Paddy's!




Auroras? When? Will they go as far south as St. Louis? It's cloudy and 48 here as opposed to being sunny with a high of 84 yesterday!
Quoting 50. sar2401:

In a grimly ironic sort of way, California's water woes will be sorted out. The population just needs to drop to what it was in 1950 (10 million) from its present 38 million. As less water is available, more people will leave. In the long run, it's self-adjusting, but it's going to be a pretty wrenching adjustment.


I propose they all move to Alabama, plenty of open land there.
One day you and others are shouting that climate is defined with a 30 year timeframe.....Then other days jumping on single weather events.....moving the goal post to confuse the masses????


single events can be attributed to what is occuring in that thirty year time frame...or longer for that matter....so...i think you're confused....here...have some popcorn....and hush now....it will keep you from looking....well...let's not go there...you'll just look good...

Quoting 55. Midweststorm:

Seeing some of the destruction these days is mind boggling.

As for El Nino and its effect, it doesnt appear to have as significant of an impact on my area (Greater Kansas CIty)

What bothers me the most, is why they have not poured more research into studying the different items that we know have an effect on weather. I know small groups do it at the universities etc. IPCC probably does some as well. I just believe more can be done study wise.

I have often heard our local mets talk about El Nino in my area = less storms but tend to be slightly more powerful. They do not have a huge set of recorded history to look at though and they point that out.




I don't think the current El Nino will have an effect on our severe weather. It's too weak to do anything as of right now. As long as the weather's nice for baseball! Go Cards!
im wondering,why, they cannot build water pipelines around the states,they sure know how to build OIL pipelines..California and the southwest could surely use the excess water from the northern tier states that got excessive snowfall this winter huh...just a thought.
Quoting 54. Dakster:



Awesome. I love it. I have to go back to South Florida at one point and I am dreading it. Whatever it takes I am going to make Alaska my "forever" home. Unless California dries up and they Californicate Alaska.



Awesome, I can't imagine the change, but I'm happy you love it. Having grown up in South Florida the furthest I made it was Orlando. :)
Quoting Naga5000:


I meant no one in the actively publishing scientific community is arguing that. My post was addressed to both sides of the blog argument. Attribution to climate change is very hard to prove, however to use the old baseball analogy. We can't say for certain which individual home run Barry Bonds hit was due to steroids, but they were certainly influenced by steroid use. This drought probably was parts natural variability and parts anthropogenic climate change, it would be silly to think that it is an either or proposition.

I'll call everyone out, I don't care. :)
The killer with the current drought isn't just lack of rain. We've had lack of rain before but made it through with the water locked in the mountain snows and all the reservoirs. The killer this time around is the unrelenting heat. What little snow there was in the mountains is just about gone. Even if there was more snow, it would just take a little longer to melt. California's above ground storage is in huge reservoirs, and the heat and low humidity is causing a lot of loss just from evaporation. Something like 25% of the water transported in the California Aqueduct is lost to evaporation in a normal year, and it must be higher this year, with temperatures in the high 80's already. There's some cooler weather and rain headed for California now, which may provide at least some short term relief, but the heat is going to return. Unless El Nino is at least moderate, there's not much evidence it will cause beneficial rain for California, and it's another water season away in any case. One of the reasons I left California in 2004 was nothing was being done to solve any of California's long term water problems. Alabama is hot, humid, and doesn't have the Hollywood Bowl, but we do have lots and lots of water. :-)
what a human tragedy IF this in fact occurs huh...................
nww3 long range looks like another pacific cyclone this time in between tahiti and fiji.
Quoting 63. LargoFl:

what a human tragedy IF this in fact occurs huh...................


Something is odd about the entire California drought situation. If everything is as dire as you read and hear, why isn't the federal government stepping in? Why hasn't the state started mandatory rationing programs? I mean, if there is really only one year's left of water on reserve, this should have been escalated to the highest priority government initiative like a year ago. I'm not questioning any of the reports, but surely the government isn't just sitting around doing a rain dance, are they?

Quoting 56. TimTheWxMan:





Auroras? When? Will they go as far south as St. Louis? It's cloudy and 48 here as opposed to being sunny with a high of 84 yesterday!
If the storm continues at its current level you may able to spot the aurora but you will need to find a dark area away from city lights.    People in the northern part of the country could be in for a great show tonight as shown by some of the great photos taken early this morning. 
Quoting LargoFl:
im wondering,why, they cannot build water pipelines around the states,they sure know how to build OIL pipelines..California and the southwest could surely use the excess water from the northern tier states that got excessive snowfall this winter huh...just a thought.
That thought has already been done. Look up the California Aqueduct. It started in 1963 and there are still branches being built, and it's over 700 miles long. The problem is northern California doesn't have excess water now, so it doesn't matter how much carrying capacity they add to the Aqueduct. The only real answer now would be to build another branch of Aqueduct from Oregon and steal their water. As you might imagine, the people in Oregon don't favor this plan. Even if we could add knockout drops to the water in Oregon so the people there shut up, there's a little problem of money. California doesn't even have enough money to pay off the bonds coming due from the original Aqueduct let alone come up with a couple of extra billion for a new one. You can bet every answer that sounds doable has already been done in California.
Quoting 63. LargoFl:

what a human tragedy IF this in fact occurs huh...................


I think if the models are right and we get a high end moderate El-Nino to Strong El-Nino then California will then rebuild their water supply but that won't happen until Fall/Winter.

These Cyclones that keep forming near the Equator will keep a steady dose of westerly Wind Burst moving across the Pacific. Here's another one next week.



And here's another on the GFS at the end of the run.

Quoting 50. sar2401:

In a grimly ironic sort of way, California's water woes will be sorted out. The population just needs to drop to what it was in 1950 (10 million) from its present 38 million. As less water is available, more people will leave. In the long run, it's self-adjusting, but it's going to be a pretty wrenching adjustment.

I read the other day that 10% of water consumption is for residential use...so if 3/4 of the people left, it really doesn't solve the issue. Think of the veggies we all eat :)
Quoting 57. Dakster:



I propose they all move to Alabama, plenty of open land there.


i have always like georgia :)
Quoting 62. sar2401:

The killer with the current drought isn't just lack of rain. We've had lack of rain before but made it through with the water locked in the mountain snows and all the reservoirs. The killer this time around is the unrelenting heat. What little snow there was in the mountains is just about gone. Even if there was more snow, it would just take a little longer to melt. California's above ground storage is in huge reservoirs, and the heat and low humidity is causing a lot of loss just from evaporation. Something like 25% of the water transported in the California Aqueduct is lost to evaporation in a normal year, and it must be higher this year, with temperatures in the high 80's already. There's some cooler weather and rain headed for California now, which may provide at least some short term relief, but the heat is going to return. Unless El Nino is at least moderate, there's not much evidence it will cause beneficial rain for California, and it's another water season away in any case. One of the reasons I left California in 2004 was nothing was being done to solve any of California's long term water problems. Alabama is hot, humid, and doesn't have the Hollywood Bowl, but we do have lots and lots of water. :-)


No Pacific Beach in Alabama either. :) We aren't doing a good job here in Central Florida with our water, never have. We do have an abundance of heat and humidity, however.
First videos are now available from Vanuatu's southern island of Tanna (see blog entry). The defoliated plain looks like a desert :-(

Pictures from Tanna in the first and last part:


Report from Tanna with aerial views starting at 1:00:


In the blog from March 12, before Pam hit those islands, I've posted a selection of videos from Tanna; if someone likes to watch them (again) for comparison, it's post #23 on this site (in one of Tanna's tribes Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, is venerated as a god; hope he sends them a merciful note and some special help to mitigate the theodicy issue).

Edit: More to read:
In Vanuatu's hard-hit Tanna, residents cowered from Cyclone Pam
By Stephen Coates, TANNA, Vanuatu Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:48am EDT
Excerpt: Many buildings in the town, about 200 km (125 miles) south of the capital, Port Vila, were extensively damaged, but the absence of a major storm surge meant most large structures survived. ... On Tanna, the toll stands at five, including two women killed when a wall collapsed as they sheltered in a church. Relief agencies fear the number could rise significantly as news trickles in from settlements restoring communications links.

'Dire situation' as food shortages loom in wake of Cyclone Pam
Updated 07:32, Published: 3:55AM Wednesday March 18, 2015 Source: AAP/ONE News
Does the latest IPCC report have a graph showing that the 2000's were warmer than the 1990's?
Quoting 45. Dragod66:

Thank you for mentioning what is going on here in Atlantic Canada! It has been relentless! More coming tonight and tomorrow! It will be May till we see the ground. :O
Been thinking of you folks up there. Tried to find a video (BBC, I think) that barbamz posted, from the Maritimes back in February, of a guy digging a tunnel to get to his car. Never seen a video like it before, or since.

No luck yet finding the video, though. Will post if I do!
In regards to California Mother Nature has a way for making up for lost time and I think California folks will be in for a surprise next Winter with what could be some epic rain events/snow events due to a screaming southern jet stream.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:

In regards to California Mother Nature has a way for making up for lost time and I think California folks will be in for a surprise next Winter with what could be some epic rain events/snow events due to a screaming southern jet stream.


We will need a boat to get around C FL if that occurs.
Quoting 61. Naga5000:



Awesome, I can't imagine the change, but I'm happy you love it. Having grown up in South Florida the furthest I made it was Orlando. :)


No palm trees here... And you probably wouldn't like the 9 months of winter and 3 months of poor sledding there is here. The summer here is like a really nice winter day in Miami. Lows in the 40-50 range and highs MAYBE touching 70. Up here the news station calls that scorching day.
Quoting 39. TropicalAnalystwx13:


JB is also comparing the setup to 2011, which would be the worst case scenario. It's hype, but what's new from him?

It's our friend JB's way of shouting SQUIRREL! A month ago he was hyperventilating about how the Plains and Mid-West would be reeling from cold and snow this month. The sooner that is forgotten, the better.
Quoting 76. tampabaymatt:



We will need a boat to get around C FL if that occurs.


Important to watch the evolution of this El-Nino has that will have big impacts next Winter from California to FL. Basically the bigger the El-Nino the more effects the southern US gets. I just hope California can get passed the next several months so Fall can come and give some much needed relief across the state.
Quoting 78. ACSeattle:


It's our friend JB's way of shouting SQUIRREL! A month ago he was hyperventilating about how the Plains and Mid-West would be reeling from cold and snow this month. The sooner that is forgotten, the better.



He also said no El-Nino this year and said those that were proclaiming that it will occur in 2015 was because we wanted to boost our GW claims for another hot year across the Globe.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Something is odd about the entire California drought situation. If everything is as dire as you read and hear, why isn't the federal government stepping in? Why hasn't the state started mandatory rationing programs? I mean, if there is really only one year's left of water on reserve, this should have been escalated to the highest priority government initiative like a year ago. I'm not questioning any of the reports, but surely the government isn't just sitting around doing a rain dance, are they?
Take a look at all the restrictions already in place. These started last year and will only get more stringent this year. The Feds, except for the Army Corps of Engineers, is not usually involved in water issues. The State of California has been fighting water shortages almost since it was founded and probably has more expertise in this than any other agency. They'll give it the old college try but, as long as it stays hot and doesn't rain, some kind of desalination is the only real answer.
Quoting 67. sar2401:

That thought has already been done. Look up the California Aqueduct. It started in 1963 and there are still branches being built, and it's over 700 miles long. The problem is northern California doesn't have excess water now, so it doesn't matter how much carrying capacity they add to the Aqueduct. The only real answer now would be to build another branch of Aqueduct from Oregon and steal their water. As you might imagine, the people in Oregon don't favor this plan. Even if we could add knockout drops to the water in Oregon so the people there shut up, there's a little problem of money. California doesn't even have enough money to pay off the bonds coming due from the original Aqueduct let alone come up with a couple of extra billion for a new one. You can bet every answer that sounds doable has already been done in California.

Looking at this entirely from an outsiders point of view.
Surly this kind of emergency must somehow be able to become a Federal concern with Federal funding?
After all it seems that items of extreme National importance are at stake here, along with an impending economic disaster in the offing.
#47 - dabirds

"The gentlemen in kilts in Dogtown better have a lot of starch, winds here to there N are out of the N to NE @ 15-25 w/ gusts over 30."


This cracked me up :)

Quoting 53. yoboi:



One day you and others are shouting that climate is defined with a 30 year timeframe.....Then other days jumping on single weather events.....moving the goal post to confuse the masses????

Did you catch this WU blog?

Quoting 65. tampabaymatt:



Something is odd about the entire California drought situation. If everything is as dire as you read and hear, why isn't the federal government stepping in? Why hasn't the state started mandatory rationing programs? I mean, if there is really only one year's left of water on reserve, this should have been escalated to the highest priority government initiative like a year ago. I'm not questioning any of the reports, but surely the government isn't just sitting around doing a rain dance, are they?

LowerCal, Pedley, and some others from California can probably address rationing. There's been mention on other blogs of misuse of potable water resulting in fines. And some farms won't be allocated water. So, they are addressing it.

Quoting 67. sar2401:

That thought has already been done. Look up the California Aqueduct. It started in 1963 and there are still branches being built, and it's over 700 miles long. The problem is northern California doesn't have excess water now, so it doesn't matter how much carrying capacity they add to the Aqueduct. The only real answer now would be to build another branch of Aqueduct from Oregon and steal their water. As you might imagine, the people in Oregon don't favor this plan. Even if we could add knockout drops to the water in Oregon so the people there shut up, there's a little problem of money. California doesn't even have enough money to pay off the bonds coming due from the original Aqueduct let alone come up with a couple of extra billion for a new one. You can bet every answer that sounds doable has already been done in California.

Oregon's got their own water woes going on, too.

Quoting sar2401:
In a grimly ironic sort of way, California's water woes will be sorted out. The population just needs to drop to what it was in 1950 (10 million) from its present 38 million. As less water is available, more people will leave. In the long run, it's self-adjusting, but it's going to be a pretty wrenching adjustment.
Where will those "excess" 28 million Californians go? It seems to me they'll be running into the millions of refugees fleeing rising seas along the Gulf and East coasts; how will they be accommodated? And since no one will be likely to purchase their abandoned Golden State (or Sunshine State, or Pelican State, or Lone Star State) homes, how will they be able to afford to move into new ones?

"Self-adjusting" is an ominous term. That's what deer overpopulations go through. Remember: extinction is just another form of adaptation. A severe form, to be sure. But a form nonetheless.

Even people sporting the rosiest glasses available aren't going to find the future a pretty one...
Quoting 65. tampabaymatt:



Something is odd about the entire California drought situation. If everything is as dire as you read and hear, why isn't the federal government stepping in? Why hasn't the state started mandatory rationing programs? I mean, if there is really only one year's left of water on reserve, this should have been escalated to the highest priority government initiative like a year ago. I'm not questioning any of the reports, but surely the government isn't just sitting around doing a rain dance, are they?
yeah I agree, feds should be stepping in on this.
Mother Nature might currently be on a runaway train and we are just all the passengers along for the ride......Best thing for us to do is to work together, study the issues scientifically (in terms of adaptation) and to assist each other (whether at the State/Country/International levels) with mitigation as to the impacts.

On a lighter note, that would be awesome to be able to see auroras in lower latitudes.....................
Quoting 74. LAbonbon:

Been thinking of you folks up there. Tried to find a video (BBC, I think) that barbamz posted, from the Maritimes back in February, of a guy digging a tunnel to get to his car. Never seen a video like it before, or since.
No luck yet finding the video, though. Will post if I do!


This one?
Quoting 85. LargoFl:

yeah I agree, feds should be stepping in on this.


I agree largo. Very dire situation in that state. Here in FL we still have mandatory water restrictions eventhough we have had an abundance of rain over the last year. Maybe California should take FL's lead.
Quoting 86. weathermanwannabe:

Mother Nature might currently be on a runaway train and we are just all the passengers along for the ride......Best thing for us to do is to work together, study the issues scientifically (in terms of adaptation) and to assist each other (whether at the State/Country/International levels) with mitigation as to the impacts.

On a lighter note, that would be awesome to be able to see auroras in lower latitudes.....................


Seems as if the Globe is going to see lots of Natural Disasters this year maybe more than what we have ever observed so far.
Quoting 35. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There is also a drought ongoing in Brazil, but keep denying the impacts of climate change though.

There's one ongoing in the Levant, too. Totally unconnected, of course ;)
The same (unconnected, of course, ;) ) phenomenon in Zambia/Tanzania/part of Zaire.
Quoting 87. barbamz:



This one?

Thanks, barb!

I'm still amazed by it...I thought of this guy with the massive snows in Italy/Turkey/Greece, etc., that have been going on recently. Think of all the cars and homes that had to be 'excavated'.

And the poor Maritimes - they have had beaucoup snow this winter!
Quoting 56. TimTheWxMan:





Auroras? When? Will they go as far south as St. Louis? It's cloudy and 48 here as opposed to being sunny with a high of 84 yesterday!
Sorry Tim at lunch earlier, see post #16. Will be hard to see if we keep these mostly cloudy conditions, assuming they're visible in the first place.

Bonnie, stole that from Lern of KSHE95, they're in Dogtown doing a live broadcast, thought it was great too & a good way to make these biting winds more humorous :)
Quoting 84. Neapolitan:

Where will those "excess" 28 million Californians go? It seems to me they'll be running into the millions of refugees fleeing rising seas along the Gulf and East coasts; how will they be accommodated? And since no one will be likely to purchase their abandoned Golden State (or Sunshine State, or Pelican State, or Lone Star State) homes, how will they be able to afford to move into new ones?

"Self-adjusting" is an ominous term. That's what deer overpopulations go through. Remember: extinction is just another form of adaptation. A severe form, to be sure. But a form nonetheless.

Even people sporting the rosiest glasses available aren't going to find the future a pretty one...

As a Nation the problem must be National!
Then again there is Detroit! along with quite a few other Great Lakes areas.
The problem with moving is quite often people don't want to move and after all if you are used to sunshine and pleasant living then central US state winters might be a trifle chilly.
Having said that though the cash factor of relocation will be an insurmountable blow to a lot of people and then again there is the lack of work factor as well.
This might end up as a case of being trapped between the desert devil and the deep blue "salty" sea.
Its not just a case of a shortage of water for basic living, its all the water needed for the trappings of living that's the really big problem.
Quoting Dakster:


I propose they all move to Alabama, plenty of open land there.
They already are, at least in a small way. About 50% of the in-migration in Alabama has come from Pacific Coast states in the last 10 years. I'm not the only one what thought it was time to git while the giting was good. If we could convince California business to move at the same time we'd see an even bigger migration.
Quoting luvtogolf:
Thx Bob.

We could use some rain here in Central Florida. The pollen is killing me on the golf courses.


Yeah, after the nice rain on February 28, the rain has just stopped
Not a drop in my weather station this month (17 days).
But my personal record is 33 days in a row with no measurable precipitation. This was the same time of year (March)about 20 years ago.

I don't see that record being broken, but who knows? I'd have to make it to April 3rd with no rain and I doubt that will happen.

Every day this month has been 80 degrees or higher here in Fort Myers. Also, average daytime high of 86 degrees last I checked, which is well above average.

Anyone following the developing el Nino?

Quoting 95. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, after the nice rain on February 28, the rain has just stopped
Not a drop in my weather station this month (17 days).
But my personal record is 33 days in a row with no measurable precipitation. This was the same time of year (March)about 20 years ago.

I don't see that record being broken, but who knows? I'd have to make it to April 3rd with no rain and I doubt that will happen.

Also, average daytime high of 86 degrees last I checked. Every day this month has been 80 degrees or higher here in Fort Myers, which is well above average.




I had one storm that came through at 4:30 AM about 4-5 days ago that dropped 0.51”, but other than that, we’ve also had no rain since the 2/28 rain event. My grass is really showing signs of heat stress. Of course, this had to happen as I put new plants down about a week ago. Despite daily waterings, some are already shriveling up and dying. Ugh
Quoting PlazaRed:

Looking at this entirely from an outsiders point of view.
Surly this kind of emergency must somehow be able to become a Federal concern with Federal funding?
After all it seems that items of extreme National importance are at stake here, along with an impending economic disaster in the offing.
So you think the Federal government is less broke but has more water use expertise than the State of California, a state who's GDP would make it the ninth largest country in the world? That wasn't my experience living there. What exactly would you propose the Feds do that's not already being done? Adding yet another layer of bureaucracy to the multiple layers that already exist in California isn't likely to produce any good results.
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?

There is an El Nino??? No one ever mentioned it in here for sure :-)
Link

This really shows what we have been dealing with this winter in the Maritimes!
Quoting 99. sar2401:

So you think the Federal government is less broke but has more water use expertise than the State of California, a state who's GDP would make it the ninth largest country in the world? That wasn't my experience living there. What exactly would you propose the Feds do that's not already being done? Adding yet another layer of bureaucracy to the multiple layers that already exist in California isn't likely to produce any good results.


I think the point he is trying to make is that it just seems odd that the federal government has stayed so quiet on this, when it would have significant, national consequences if things get worse. Even if all they did was talk about it more, it might help with the intangible factors like making sure the citizens of California know this is a dire situation.
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?




Let me boil my tea leaves and get back to you.
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?


Nobody is!


Snow pile outside Moncton. Note: It's over 100ft tall.
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?



well.....
This article just in on the California drought situation. While the state water management and environmental services are working in the individual states, one must remember that many of the hydraulic works are under the strict control of the Federal Government. The different agencies have always worked together. To leave a problem of this magnitude up to state officials to solve is not only irresponsible, but in many cases, irresponsible and probably illegal.


Link
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?




STF? LOL
May be a good show for Northerners early tomorrow morning.


Let me boil my tea leaves and get back to you.






looks modoki to me
Quoting 107. Grothar:

This article just in on the California drought situation. While the state water management and environmental services are working in the individual states, one must remember that many of the hydraulic works are under the strict control of the Federal Government. The different agencies have always worked together. To leave a problem of this magnitude up to state officials to solve is not only irresponsible, but in many cases, irresponsible and probably illegal.


Link


What a minute? There is a desalination plant in Southern California that is operable and they're just now deciding to use it? Did I read that right? Holy smokes, maybe the feds do need to step in.
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



I agree largo. Very dire situation in that state. Here in FL we still have mandatory water restrictions eventhough we have had an abundance of rain over the last year. Maybe California should take FL's lead.
yes if they don't have restrictions already in place what are they waiting for?..rebuilding their water supplies should be number one on their agenda..
Fires in the area. Can see it in the air now and smell it.
Quoting 60. LargoFl:

im wondering,why, they cannot build water pipelines around the states,they sure know how to build OIL pipelines..California and the southwest could surely use the excess water from the northern tier states that got excessive snowfall this winter huh...just a thought.

I haven't even done a back-of-the-envelope calculation but I suspect the cost of energy would be prohibitive to move that amount of water up and over the western mountains.
Quoting 65. tampabaymatt:



Something is odd about the entire California drought situation. If everything is as dire as you read and hear, why isn't the federal government stepping in? Why hasn't the state started mandatory rationing programs? I mean, if there is really only one year's left of water on reserve, this should have been escalated to the highest priority government initiative like a year ago. I'm not questioning any of the reports, but surely the government isn't just sitting around doing a rain dance, are they?


For California statewide:
What's Prohibited for Everyone
* Potable water to wash sidewalks & driveways
* Runoff when irrigating with potable water
* Hoses with no shutoff nozzles to wash cars
* Potable water in decorative water features that do not recirculate the water

Here's a link to a more detailed list of

current L.A. Water Use Restrictions

and what's coming next:
Looking Forward

It appears likely that water rationing measures will be put in place that take a carrot and stick approach.

First there will be a baseline conservation rate, say of 10 or 20% (it has still not been decided). Customers will have to cut their average water use by that amount or pay more. Average use is based the size of a home and an average amount used by those with similar sized houses. If you use less than the targeted amount, in other words below the average by an amount equal to the target, you will pay the lowest rate for your water. If you exceed the conservation target will pay anywhere from a third to more than double the lowest base rater for all the "extra" water you use.

The above [current] restrictions about using water in and outside of your home, in restaurants and in hotels will also be revised.

Quoting Naga5000:


No Pacific Beach in Alabama either. :) We aren't doing a good job here in Central Florida with our water, never have. We do have an abundance of heat and humidity, however.
Eh, it was always 50 degrees and foggy at the beach in northern California so no great loss there. At least Lake Eufaula has 350 miles of warm shoreline and warm water. Alabama was lucky that, in the 20's and 30's, we had visionaries that saw the benefits of hydropower so we have big reservoirs all over the state. As an interesting footnote to history, given all the talk about the Federal government stepping in and doing "something", Lake Eufaula was one of the last large dams and reservoirs built in the country. It went online in 1965, and its reason for existence is to provide a navigable waterway for barges on the Chattahoochee River. Within 10 years of completion, most power plants from here to Florida switched to natural gas. Coal barges were the only money earning traffic, and that revenue vanished in the space of five years. The Corps is now trying to pay for this huge public works project by selling electricity from a relatively small power plant at the dam and lock charges for pleasure boats going up and down the river in summer. As you might imagine, that's a few dollars short of paying the tab. Thankfully for me, every US taxpayer is on the hook for this project, so I get to enjoy the lake while y'all pay for it. It's no wonder I'm a little hesitant about bringing in the Feds as an answer to water problems.
12Z Euro is very wet across FL from Sunday into Next week. GFS is dry go figure. I hope the Euro verifies as some rain and cooler temps would be nice.

192hrs


216hrs
So el nino this year could be...

oh wait nevermind.

Quoting barbamz:

There is an El Nino??? No one ever mentioned it in here for sure :-)


Some how he missed the daily bombardment of
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:

Interesting. I wonder if el nino is causing this quiet tornado season. Greg Forbes, and Reed Timmer are definitely probably not happy.


We're just getting into the more active part of the tornado season.
So far this season the GOM has been closed for business. We would need to see the GOM flow setup across the Southern Plains for the activity to get going.



Posted this radar loop the other day. It shows the Moore Oklahoma Tornado back on May 3rd, 1999.
This tornado had the highest wind speed ever recorded by doppler of 301 mph (some report 316-317 mph).


Close up of the super cell as it was crossing extreme S.W. Oklahoma City moving into the western part of Moore.
Quoting nymore:

People in the northern part of the country could be in for a great show tonight .... 


Sigh. Except for those in northern parts where it is snowing and heavily overcast.

Watching the Kp index with a heavy heart.
Here is the latest 1:35 pm (EST) forecast "view" line on the current Geomagnetic Storm........Not as far South as postulated earlier:

published: Tuesday, March 17, 2015 17:53 UTC

A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm was observed today at 07/1358 UTC (09:58 am EDT). This is the response to a pair of CMEs observed leaving the Sun on 15 March. Shown here is a model depiction of where the aurora is likely visible. Storm conditions are forecast to persist for the next several hours before beginning to wane down towards the end of the UT day.


Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?



Not much of an el nino to me, more of a modoki one.This proves it.
yes if they don't have restrictions already in place what are they waiting for?..rebuilding their water supplies should be number one on their agenda..

they have water restrictions in place....and as of last december...the populace has cut their water use by over 22 percent
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



What a minute? There is a desalination plant in Southern California that is operable and they're just now deciding to use it? Did I read that right? Holy smokes, maybe the feds do need to step in.

Due to relatively high energy consumption, the costs of desalinating sea water are generally higher than the alternatives (fresh water from rivers or groundwater, water recycling and water conservation)....
Quoting 122. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Not much of an el nino to me, more of a modoki one.This proves it.
Don't feel bad or anything but you are giving me a headache ;)
Quoting 107. Grothar:

This article just in on the California drought situation. While the state water management and environmental services are working in the individual states, one must remember that many of the hydraulic works are under the strict control of the Federal Government. The different agencies have always worked together. To leave a problem of this magnitude up to state officials to solve is not only irresponsible, but in many cases, irresponsible and probably illegal.


Link

Just skimmed through the 2014 WRDA bill, searched on the word 'drought'. Now drought is mentioned quite a few times in the bill, but does anyone know if/how the most recent WRDA bill ties into the current CA drought?
Quoting 123. ricderr:

yes if they don't have restrictions already in place what are they waiting for?..rebuilding their water supplies should be number one on their agenda..

they have water restrictions in place....and as of last december...the populace has cut their water use by over 22 percent

Residential use or 22% reduction overall?
JMA similar to the Euro. GFS seems to have a problem with showing precip across FL.


Eh, it was always 50 degrees and foggy at the beach in northern California so no great loss there


lol.....i lived near the water in san leandro and ran a lumber yard about 30 miles inland...i could leave the store at 6...temps in the upper 90's....and be home in the fog like you stated...the 50's...i would always enjoy going to the work the next day and hear the guys say it never got under 80 that night...and i would tell them i had a fire going in the fireplace
What happens if we end up having a madoki?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro is very wet across FL from Sunday into Next week. GFS is dry go figure. I hope the Euro verifies as some rain and cooler temps would be nice.

192hrs


216hrs


You said that 10 says ago and it's been pretty dry. Trusting models out 216 hours to me is pointless.
Quoting 114. LowerCal:


I haven't even done a back-of-the-envelope calculation but I suspect the cost of energy would be prohibitive to move that amount of water up and over the western mountains.
yes but at some point in time..cost should not override public safety..run out of water over there and then see the howls from the population at large about why no pipelines were built.. right now they DO have water so the Hurry isn't there..i can understand that but...
Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:

JMA similar to the Euro. GFS seems to have a problem with showing precip across FL.



it did show rain over central and northern florida a day or so ago..guess input must have changed and it has moved the rain northeastward up thru Georgia and the carolina's
Quoting 131. washingtonian115:

What happens if we end up having a madoki?
Well we have never had a Madoki before so who knows.
Quoting 121. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the latest 1:35 pm (EST) forecast "view" line on the current Geomagnetic Storm........Not as far South as postulated earlier:
published: Tuesday, March 17, 2015 17:53 UTC

A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm was observed today at 07/1358 UTC%uFFFD(09:58 am EDT). This is the response to a pair of CMEs observed leaving the Sun on 15%uFFFDMarch.%uFFFDShown here is a model depiction of where the aurora is likely visible.%uFFFDStorm conditions are forecast to persist for the next several hours%uFFFDbefore beginning to%uFFFDwane down towards the end of the UT day.



From: Spaceweather.com:
Before sunrise, bright auroras were sighted over several northern-tier US states including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Montana, the Dakotas and Washington. Marketa Murray sends this picture from Dalton Highway in Alaska:


Use the link above to get more details. And there is a realtime aurora gallery as well.


Readings in Alaska.

More links:
solarham.net
Spaceweather prediction center

From the latter the "Notifications Timeline" (I watch it quite often but cannot remember having seen something like this:)
Quoting 99. sar2401:

So you think the Federal government is less broke but has more water use expertise than the State of California, a state who's GDP would make it the ninth largest country in the world? That wasn't my experience living there. What exactly would you propose the Feds do that's not already being done? Adding yet another layer of bureaucracy to the multiple layers that already exist in California isn't likely to produce any good results.

As I said, looking at it from an outsiders point of view.
I remember a lot of talk here a couple of years ago about the corps of engineers and doing work on the Mississippi river when there were flooding problems imminent, maybe they could get involved.
If something isn't done then there is a potential for a massive financial disaster in California.
This will lead to a lot of major human problems as well.

A few simple questions must be?
Have the people of the USA ever faced a potential problem like this before in their recoded history?
Was the 1930s dust bowl situation as bad or worse than this one in California now, or what it could become soon?
I also think you must take possible civil unrest into account as well, with there already being problems with water theft?
Then again I must apologise for being an outsider with an outsiders point of view unable to actively take part in your drought problems.
Quoting 127. Dakster:



How expensive is having no water?

The question was why
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



....(snip) they're just now deciding to use it? ....(snip)
Quoting 124. LowerCal:


Due to relatively high energy consumption, the costs of desalinating sea water are generally higher than the alternatives (fresh water from rivers or groundwater, water recycling and water conservation)....
A Few Clouds

88°F

31°C
Humidity 36%
Wind Speed W 15 G 24 mph
Barometer 29.97 in (1014.7 mb)
Dewpoint 58°F (14°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update on 17 Mar 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 79ft.


These temps are even a big deal around here, the plains are so strange in that they can see temps this warm on rare occasion.



Quoting 132. jrweatherman:



You said that 10 says ago and it's been pretty dry. Trusting models out 216 hours to me is pointless.


Euro starts the rain at 132hrs and carries it thru 216hrs. GFS doesn't however the CMC and JMA are similar to the Euro. Well see as it is very dry and hot here and another day of near 90 temps is a little much for March. It has been hot everyday for 10 or 11 days running now.
Lowercal - I wasn't answering your question. I was asking a different question on the same subject.
Residential use or 22% reduction overall?


that would be urban customers....however i;m guessing agriculture would be lower just because they aren't shipping as much...i'll check though
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone following the developing el Nino?



Lol. You must have him on ignore:)

Btw- I thought this el nino was supposed to bring heavy rain to us in March. Instead we're having record heat and it's dry. The pollen is aweful right now.
Quoting 143. WeatherConvoy:

I think cow farts are the primary reason for climate change


You saying too much CO2 gas coming from the cows?
Quoting 126. LAbonbon:


Just skimmed through the 2014 WRDA bill, searched on the word 'drought'. Now drought is mentioned quite a few times in the bill, but does anyone know if/how the most recent WRDA bill ties into the current CA drought?


I never read the whole bill, but it was quite comprehensive. It was mostly guidelines for studies and interdepartmental cooperation. This bill was important, because it had to address the issue of the rights of Native Americans as to control of water use, since there are separate inviolable provisions. It also initially addresses development of harbors and river use. One of the important issues, is that there are many military institutions which fall in the current areas of drought. They fall into an entirely different set of controls and issues. As the situation becomes dire, (as it already is), it is simply not enough to tell someone to not water their lawns. The problems are multitudinous.

It is a quagmire of problems that most people do not consider.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I think the point he is trying to make is that it just seems odd that the federal government has stayed so quiet on this, when it would have significant, national consequences if things get worse. Even if all they did was talk about it more, it might help with the intangible factors like making sure the citizens of California know this is a dire situation.
The federal government has an entire web site devoted to drought. President Obama just had a big drought press conference in Firebaugh, a farming town in the Central Valley. He arrived with a dump truck full of money. No actual water but plenty of money for farmers, so they're happy. I'd suggest it's not that the Feds aren't involved, it's just that it's not news in Florida or Alabama. It really doesn't take the Feds to convince people in California they're in a serious drought either. I'd still ask the question that, besides jaw jacking, which is happening, what exactly can the Feds do that state hasn't done already?
Quoting 144. luvtogolf:



Lol. You must have him on ignore:)

Btw- I thought this el nino was supposed to bring heavy rain to us in March. Instead we're having record heat and it's dry. The pollen is aweful right now.


Gro having me on ignore no way that would happen as I think we have a mutual respect for each other. He's like the dad of the blog. He never puts his kids on ignore.
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Anyone following the developing el Nino?



Brother does droll
Quoting LargoFl:
im wondering,why, they cannot build water pipelines around the states,they sure know how to build OIL pipelines..California and the southwest could surely use the excess water from the northern tier states that got excessive snowfall this winter huh...just a thought.


Because the excess won't be there by the time the pipelines are built, and there are no assurances of there ever being "excess". Plus the water belongs to the northern states, whose reward for brutal winters is not worrying too much about water.

It is a real problem for California, and I'm empathetic. But looking to other people's water is probably going to just result in ugly lawsuits.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 48m 48 minutes ago

2nd-warmest start to March in Miami's history-only the incredible heat of March 2003 surpasses it. Too early for this
Quoting ricderr:
Eh, it was always 50 degrees and foggy at the beach in northern California so no great loss there


lol.....i lived near the water in san leandro and ran a lumber yard about 30 miles inland...i could leave the store at 6...temps in the upper 90's....and be home in the fog like you stated...the 50's...i would always enjoy going to the work the next day and hear the guys say it never got under 80 that night...and i would tell them i had a fire going in the fireplace
Yeah, Petaluma was the head of Meacham Gap, the only (almost) sea level opening from the North Bay to the coast. As the Central Valley heated up the air from the coast got sucked inland every night in the summer. We had low clouds and fog almost every morning. The upside was I never had air conditioning installed in my house and I was a little warm maybe five times in 30 years. The downside was I never saw Fourth of July fireworks. All I saw was a mortar shell being launched and then a dull glow up in the clouds when it went off. My brother lived over in Woodland part of that time and I took the boys over there to see the fireworks one year. They were amazed. :-)
Btw- I thought this el nino was supposed to bring heavy rain to us in March. Instead we're having record heat and it's dry. The pollen is aweful right now.

yes...that was the proclamation ...how are your march totals compared to average?
What is causing this?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Gro having me on ignore no way that would happen as I think we have a mutual respect for each other. He's like the dad of the blog. He never puts his kids on ignore.


I was joking.
156. flsky
Does anyone know why, when I have someone on "ignore" that I still see his emails? I'd REALLY like to not see his comments any longer. Mods?
Quoting 114. LowerCal:


I haven't even done a back-of-the-envelope calculation but I suspect the cost of energy would be prohibitive to move that amount of water up and over the western mountains.


Yet, there are still functioning aqueducts from the Roman Empire in Europe that use no pumps and move large amounts of water over long distances that have varied terrain. I sometimes think our modern engineers only know how to use current technology, not anything simpler from the past. Observational skills seem lacking in almost everyone these days - at least to me
Quoting 154. Gearsts:

What is causing this?

Causing what? The warming near the Cape Verde Islands?
159. flsky
Hey! Great place to have vineyards!

Quoting 152. sar2401:

Yeah, Petaluma was the head of Meacham Gap, the only (almost) sea level opening from the North Bay to the coast. As the Central Valley heated up the air from the coast got sucked inland every night in the summer. We had low clouds and fog almost every morning. The upside was I never had air conditioning installed in my house and I was a little warm maybe five times in 30 years. The downside was I never saw Fourth of July fireworks. All I saw was a mortar shell being launched and then a dull glow up in the clouds when it went off. My brother lived over in Woodland part of that time and I took the boys over there to see the fireworks one year. They were amazed. :-)
Quoting 156. flsky:

Does anyone know why, when I have someone on "ignore" that I still see his emails? I'd REALLY like to not see his comments any longer. Mods?


In WUMAIL under LISTS add user id to BLOCKED
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



Gro having me on ignore no way that would happen as I think we have a mutual respect for each other. He's like the dad of the blog. He never puts his kids on ignore.


Why would I have you on ignore? We have had a few good laughs together over the years.

I think we all get on each other's nerves once in a while. We all have different views on the weather and events. It would be quite boring if we all agreed on everything.

And laugh if you will, but I am very fond of a lot of people on here and some of them are like my kids. I like to tease rather than insult. So keep blogging, Scott.

I mean even Washington laughed at me when I told him to sit in the boat and not stand or he was going to get a stomachache.


Quoting ricderr:
Btw- I thought this el nino was supposed to bring heavy rain to us in March. Instead we're having record heat and it's dry. The pollen is aweful right now.

yes...that was the proclamation ...how are your march totals compared to average?


Looks like at KTPA they have had a whopping total of .14 compared to the mtd average of 1.29. "I think we need a bigger boat."
Quoting 92. dabirds:

Sorry Tim at lunch earlier, see post #16. Will be hard to see if we keep these mostly cloudy conditions, assuming they're visible in the first place.

Bonnie, stole that from Lern of KSHE95, they're in Dogtown doing a live broadcast, thought it was great too & a good way to make these biting winds more humorous :)




The clouds have cleared up dramatically in the last couple of hours.
maybe more snow on friday night for the northeast maybe more snow for boston
Quoting 155. luvtogolf:



I was joking.


So was I. Lighten up sport.
Quoting 141. Dakster:

Lowercal - I wasn't answering your question. I was asking a different question on the same subject.

Quoting 127. Dakster:



How expensive is having no water?

Good question. The biggest impacts so far have been to agriculture in the Central Valley. Farmland with nothing growing, farm workers with no work, orchards being bulldozed because there's not enough water to keep the trees alive from year to year.
Quoting 162. luvtogolf:



Looks like at KTPA they have had a whopping total of .14 compared to the mtd average of 1.29. "I think we need a bigger boat."


0.01 here basically 2 drops in the bucket.
Quoting 164. hurricanes2018:

maybe more snow on friday night for the northeast maybe more snow for boston




They already broke their snow record! I noticed you've been AWOL from the blog in the last few weeks.
Looks like at KTPA they have had a whopping total of .14 compared to the mtd average of 1.29. "I think we need a bigger boat."

dang dude.....yep...one forecast that for now sure hasn't verified......those numbers are my numbers......makes you central florida desert

Some rain and maybe some heat relief next week.

Quoting 154. Gearsts:

What is causing this?


A weakening of trade winds consistent with a temporary period of -NAO.
Quoting PlazaRed:

As I said, looking at it from an outsiders point of view.
I remember a lot of talk here a couple of years ago about the corps of engineers and doing work on the Mississippi river when there were flooding problems imminent, maybe they could get involved.
If something isn't done then there is a potential for a massive financial disaster in California.
This will lead to a lot of major human problems as well.

A few simple questions must be?
Have the people of the USA ever faced a potential problem like this before in their recoded history?
Was the 1930s dust bowl situation as bad or worse than this one in California now, or what it could become soon?
I also think you must take possible civil unrest into account as well, with there already being problems with water theft?
Then again I must apologise for being an outsider with an outsiders point of view unable to actively take part in your drought problems.
The Corp of Engineers has a lot of experience stopping floods. They have almost no experience with water supply projects. It's not that the State of California doesn't have the expertise - it doesn't have the money for any new water supply projects. Even if the Federal government were able to step in with money, the only place to get more water is from better watered states. If you want to see a big fight, attend a public meeting in Oregon when the State and Federal governments are proposing to divert water from Oregon. It's going to take a lot more pain in California before people are even willing to listen to those kinds of proposals.

The Dust Bowl years from about 1934 to 1940 saw the largest migration in US history, with 2.5 million people on the move. It was larger than the original Gold Rush migration to California in the 1850's, and larger than the post-WWII rush. Some towns on the Plains lost over 50% of their population. Some towns just disappeared in the sand drifts. Combined with the Stock Market crash, which drove down agricultural prices by 70% to 80%, it was the biggest economic disaster in US history. It would take about 6.5 million people on the move to equal the same proportion of the US population today. I hope it doesn't come to that now but there's only so much any government can do when dealing with an overwhelming calamity.
However, changes are ahead for many cities, so don't pack away your winter coat just yet.

Colder Temperatures Coming
A cold front pushed south of the Canadian border on Monday. From there, it will slice through the East Coast and into parts of the South on St. Patrick's Day. Behind this cold front, temperatures will be 20-40 degrees colder than Monday. That said, temperatures in the Midwest will only fall back to levels more typical of mid-March.
Quoting 169. ricderr:

Looks like at KTPA they have had a whopping total of .14 compared to the mtd average of 1.29. "I think we need a bigger boat."

dang dude.....yep...one forecast that for now sure hasn't verified......those numbers are my numbers......makes you central florida desert




Well if some of these models verify then we could actually see a lot of rain in the long term across FL starting late Sunday so I wouldn't say that yet and by the way 6" to 10" of rain have already fallen this year so we are still above normal for the year. It's really only been dry for the last 2 weeks. What is drying things out so fast is these day after day temps of 85 to 90.
Quoting 154. Gearsts:

What is causing this?


If you're talking about the warming near Cape Verde, I've noticed that too.
176. flsky
Thanks for that - and done. Other posters I've put on the "ignore" list and that took care of it. Thanks again.
Quoting 160. nrtiwlnvragn:



In WUMAIL under LISTS add user id to BLOCKED
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

Unfiltered VP200 anomalies today. No wonder the RMM peaked out at 4.67 sigma.




Quoting 157. Catherdr:



Yet, there are still functioning aqueducts from the Roman Empire in Europe that use no pumps and move large amounts of water over long distances that have varied terrain. I sometimes think our modern engineers only know how to use current technology, not anything simpler from the past. Observational skills seem lacking in almost everyone these days - at least to me

Here in Spain we still use a lot of the Roman stuff, after all its not really been improved on that much.
They ran a vast empire for hundreds of years without even steam power, let alone what could be used nowadays.
so this is my last dig at the California water problem at the risk of getting shouted down for being a Limey or something similar.
I have checked out that there are several railways leading into California.
As Sar asked what "I would do?" Its this.
I would put pipes on a freight train and drive it along from an area with water, dropping off lengths of pipes along the way.
The pipes would have built in connectors on them that enabled the pipes to clip together.
As the train progressed along at the side of the train track a long pipe would run parallel with the lines, rising above ground to clear junctions.
Periodically pumping stations would be placed to keep the water flow going at pressure. More pumps needed on inclines.
As the rail system crossed many rivers and water abundant place water could be picked up along the journey until the water was discharged into some distribution system.
This system would need virtually no new infrastructure as the rail roads are already there.
a pipe of say 18 inches diameter would be no real burden to run next to the rail lines.
Cost should not be too bad other than the pipes and the labour.

Now I'll leave the 9th richest economy in the world to its own ideas, as I contemplate a Roman aqueduct without a Hero powered stream engine train running over it, "yet!"
Quoting 158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Causing what? The warming near the Cape Verde Islands?
Yes


No drought in Sicily/Italy today: see prove above in the hail video.
Airmass satellite picture shows two lows in southwestern Europe right now: The one which provides precipitation for Italy (more to come for the south) and another shiny one which approaches the place of our PlazaRed in south-western Spain. I leave it to him to tell us of the impact as I have to go for now ... (BTW very warm and sunny weather in Germany today :-)






Quoting ricderr:
Looks like at KTPA they have had a whopping total of .14 compared to the mtd average of 1.29. "I think we need a bigger boat."

dang dude.....yep...one forecast that for now sure hasn't verified......those numbers are my numbers......makes you central florida desert



We need the rain to settle the pollen down. It is miserable right now. I was out at the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook for 9 hours on Sunday and while the golf was really exciting the pollen was a real downer.
pouring here in el paso..........

The northern branch of the jet stream – that corridor of powerful winds some 30,000 feet above sea level – will snap back to an alignment that draws cold air from Hudson Bay and eastern Canada into the northeastern U.S.
Quoting 97. tampabaymatt:



I had one storm that came through at 4:30 AM about 4-5 days ago that dropped 0.51”, but other than that, we’ve also had no rain since the 2/28 rain event. My grass is really showing signs of heat stress. Of course, this had to happen as I put new plants down about a week ago. Despite daily waterings, some are already shriveling up and dying. Ugh


Yeah the sandy soil around the Tampa Bay area sucks for shallow plants. It only takes about 7-10 days without a heavy rain event for grass plants to start dying. In Tallahassee, there was a 39 day streak last fall without precip and the grass was still mostly green behind my apartment with only some patches of yellow and sprinklers aren't here. If it went that long without precip at my parents house in the Tampa Bay area the lawn would be practically a sand dune, lol.

Quoting 179. Gearsts:

Yes

Weakening of trade winds,with-NAO as tropanal stated below.
Quoting 175. tiggerhurricanes2001:


If you're talking about the warming near Cape Verde, I've noticed that too.
If that has been happening over the past few days then that will be interesting for the season , if not then i'm not sure.
Quoting 182. ricderr:

pouring here in el paso..........






cold weather in the northeast everyone else warm weather
Guess we're (& sar) out of luck Tim, S WI it if 109) correct. Definitely cleared out in last couple hours, but clouds to NW look like might not help the view. Back below freezing tonight, better get my fruit tree pruning done. Had first bloom crocuses this weekend, pretty late, I think even last year they popped by early March. Have seen them as early as end of January lately, though mid to late Feb is normal for first bloom.

With more sunshine we're slowly closing in on 50 in S C IL, but doubt we're going to make forecast highs (51 to N - currently 46, 54 to SW - currently 48). Winds still pretty stiff from N-NE , though down a little. Almost Guinness/Jameson time, w/ a little corn beef & cabbage on the side! Erin Go Bragh!
Quoting 172. sar2401:

The Corp of Engineers has a lot of experience stopping floods. They have almost no experience with water supply projects. It's not that the State of California doesn't have the expertise - it doesn't have the money for any new water supply projects. Even if the Federal government were able to step in with money, the only place to get more water is from better watered states. If you want to see a big fight, attend a public meeting in Oregon when the State and Federal governments are proposing to divert water from Oregon. It's going to take a lot more pain in California before people are even willing to listen to those kinds of proposals.

The Dust Bowl years from about 1934 to 1940 saw the largest migration in US history, with 2.5 million people on the move. It was larger than the original Gold Rush migration to California in the 1850's, and larger than the post-WWII rush. Some towns on the Plains lost over 50% of their population. Some towns just disappeared in the sand drifts. Combined with the Stock Market crash, which drove down agricultural prices by 70% to 80%, it was the biggest economic disaster in US history. It would take about 6.5 million people on the move to equal the same proportion of the US population today. I hope it doesn't come to that now but there's only so much any government can do when dealing with an overwhelming calamity.


People shouldn't listen to those proposals, diverting water from Oregon is a terrible idea, it takes water from Oregon which will dry them out as well. That's like taking a knife and creating a new wound and using that skin to patch the first wound.


If the drought continues to get worse and people in California want water from Oregon, than they need to move to Oregon, but water shouldn't be taken from Oregon and redirected into California.
We need the rain to settle the pollen down. It is miserable right. I was out at the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook for 9 hours on Sunday and while the golf was really exciting the pollen was a real downer.

they've been blooming here also......which really isn't that big of a problem seeing we're desert and there's not many trees.........well....except for our house.....we have 7 chinaberry trees in the backyard.....this rain today will help it but for the last two weeks it's been killing me
Quoting 186. Climate175:

If that has been happening over the past few days then that will be interesting for the season , if not then i'm not sure.


Both those maps have the same time on them, so makes no sense to me.
Quoting 192. yonzabam:



Both those maps have the same time on them, so makes no sense to me.


One is 7-day change, the other is deviation from mean.
Quoting 157. Catherdr:



Yet, there are still functioning aqueducts from the Roman Empire in Europe that use no pumps and move large amounts of water over long distances that have varied terrain. I sometimes think our modern engineers only know how to use current technology, not anything simpler from the past. Observational skills seem lacking in almost everyone these days - at least to me
The water in open aqueducts flows on a gentle downhill gradient. The aqueduct bridges you see will span a valley at a gentle downslope so water doesn't have to flow up the other side (because it won't).

Even if your entire aqueduct is not open but a pipeline the outlet has to be lower than the inlet (like a siphon). Otherwise the only way to make water "flow uphill" is to pump it.
Quoting 190. Jedkins01:



People shouldn't listen to those proposals, diverting water from Oregon is a terrible idea, it takes water from Oregon which will dry them out as well. That's like taking a knife and creating a new wound and using that skin to patch the first wound.


If the drought continues to get worse and people in California want water from Oregon, than they need to move to Oregon, but water shouldn't be taken from Oregon and redirected into California.



Oregon is now in a serious drought as well.
Quoting 182. ricderr:

pouring here in el paso..........




I stayed a weekend in El Paso, looks like the moon out there, I guess moderate rain and 0.12 is indeed a downpour by El Paso's standards, lol.
Quoting 186. Climate175:

If that has been happening over the past few days then that will be interesting for the season, if not then i'm not sure.

Yeah it has been over the past week or two. You can even see a little orange near Africa,with diminishing blue, above the seven day change chart, on the anomaly chart. After while, the whole basin will be above average, if trade winds continue to weaken/reverse. Interesting season ahead.
Post script on water supply problems.



A few photos from a couple of thousand years ago on the subject of getting water to where water is not, up the road from me a bit:-

Link

PS. As I am retired now I could offer my services free of charge as a consultant, engineer and labourer to any future water transportation projects in the California area. So long as I don't need a green card!

199. bwi
Quoting 84. Neapolitan:

Where will those "excess" 28 million Californians go? It seems to me they'll be running into the millions of refugees fleeing rising seas along the Gulf and East coasts; how will they be accommodated? And since no one will be likely to purchase their abandoned Golden State (or Sunshine State, or Pelican State, or Lone Star State) homes, how will they be able to afford to move into new ones?

"Self-adjusting" is an ominous term. That's what deer overpopulations go through. Remember: extinction is just another form of adaptation. A severe form, to be sure. But a form nonetheless.

Even people sporting the rosiest glasses available aren't going to find the future a pretty one...


I think California could support its water needs with a combination of conservation and reduction (elimination ultimately) of agricultural irrigation. Main impact would be turning central valley back over to grassland/desert. California will survive. Cheap almonds and off-season produce, maybe not.
Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:



Oregon is now in a serious drought as well.


It depends on which part of the state. Southeast Oregon is in a serious drought, coastal Oregon is fine.

Here it comes the rapid up tick in sea surface anomalies from Nino 3.4 east to Nino 1&2.

Quoting 197. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yeah it has been over the past week or two. You can even see a little orange near Africa,with diminishing blue, above the seven day change chart, on the anomaly chart. After while, the whole basin will be above average, if trade winds continue to weaken/reverse. Interesting season ahead.
Yea, I think it is a bit too early to tell what the season will be like, time will only tell.
So, would trucking bottled water into California be more cost effective than building all those 1,000 mile pipelines and pumping it over mountains?
Quoting 196. Jedkins01:



I stayed a weekend in El Paso, looks like the moon out there, I guess moderate rain and 0.12 is indeed a downpour by El Paso's standards, lol.


That we be just enough to wet the streets here. Probably not even get wet under the trees.
This whole models have eluded that the SW Pacific cyclones shouldn't be affected by climate change so much is sort of hard to buy. I can see it stemming out of that being one of the warmer areas normally. The depth that heat can exist is so deep that to compare something that is already usually warmer & warmer at depth to a warmer world, the difference might not be seen as much as some of the smaller basins with better land set ups to facilitate storms. Even taking that all in consideration different parts of the globe at times has a number of favorable conditions that can compound into perfect conditions for any given place. When that happens to be the SW Pacific it really shouldn't be a surprise to see stronger, longer lasting storms with higher surge, waves, damage & such. There seems to be a statistical significant correlation that El Nino conditions increase the chance for cyclones to form toward the Central Pacific & move into both the NW & SW Pacific. If climate change affects ENSO strength or duration, it's likely that will increase the number of typhoons that form in the SW Pacific...& perhaps NW Pacific. Bavi is I think the second storm to form during El Nino while MJO was in phase 6. This was Pam's twin across the equator. It's not really all that surprising to have more than one anomaly come out of such a warm patch of deep water.
Quoting 157. Catherdr:



Yet, there are still functioning aqueducts from the Roman Empire in Europe that use no pumps and move large amounts of water over long distances that have varied terrain. I sometimes think our modern engineers only know how to use current technology, not anything simpler from the past. Observational skills seem lacking in almost everyone these days - at least to me


I don't know much about ancient Roman aqueducts but I know how physics works. Water can't simply go up hill on it's own, it takes energy to move water uphill, and with a high density, it takes a lot.
Also, I don't see why we would use older simpler techniques when we have modern ones that are better thanks to the culmination of much research. Such engineering feats for their time were no doubt amazing, but today's are better.

Now I'm not suggesting that everything about modern society is better. I'm just saying that there isn't any advantage to using ancient tech that I'm aware of.
Quoting 180. barbamz:



No drought in Sicily/Italy today: see prove above in the hail video.
Airmass satellite picture shows two lows in southwestern Europe right now: The one which provides precipitation for Italy (more to come for the south) and another shiny one which approaches the place of our PlazaRed in south-western Spain. I leave it to him to tell us of the impact as I have to go for now ... (BTW very warm and sunny weather in Germany today :-)








Hi Barb,
Thanks for the linked info.
Here the weather was a bit of a damp squib, or a sort of firework the rain had fallen on.
We had a bit of rain on and off.
I have no weather from the TV news yet as a much more important event, in the form of a football match is being played on the TV channel tonight.
One of the type of games where the players use a spherical ball and only kick it with their feet. This odd game invented by the Scots excites a small amount of the local population and as an election is impending its deemed to be good policy to use valuable global news time to show it, rather than what is really going on in the real world!

Quite cool though after our 30/C or 85/F days recently, even the threat of snow on some hills a long way from me tonight.
Now back to aqueduct's!
Quoting 202. Climate175:

Yea, I think it is a bit too early to tell what the season will be like, time will only tell.

Yeah time will tell. CSU and TSR will probably consider the sst's, and the IMO peek-a-boo modoki el nino/el nino in their forecasts, when they are issued on April 8th and 9th.
We're having an eclipse of the sun on Friday, here in Scotland, with 98% totality in the far north, but just 80% in the south, where I live. Cloud cover is a huge problem for such events here. I've given up even trying to see meteor showers, due to the incessant cloud cover.

The last one was in 1999, which was the first and only eclipse I've seen. Luckily, the sky was clear, that day.

Link


Tampa Bay area
Maybe the water in Chicama, Peru will warm up for the surfers.
Known for having the longest wave in the world (surfers dream). It's just a PIA to get there.




Quoting tampabaymatt:


Tampa Bay area


Best chance for rain is with the next front on Sunday - Monday.
I've got my fingers crossed.
here's a fed site on California water..............................Link
Quoting PlazaRed:

Here in Spain we still use a lot of the Roman stuff, after all its not really been improved on that much.
They ran a vast empire for hundreds of years without even steam power, let alone what could be used nowadays.
so this is my last dig at the California water problem at the risk of getting shouted down for being a Limey or something similar.
I have checked out that there are several railways leading into California.
As Sar asked what "I would do?" Its this.
I would put pipes on a freight train and drive it along from an area with water, dropping off lengths of pipes along the way.
The pipes would have built in connectors on them that enabled the pipes to clip together.
As the train progressed along at the side of the train track a long pipe would run parallel with the lines, rising above ground to clear junctions.
Periodically pumping stations would be placed to keep the water flow going at pressure. More pumps needed on inclines.
As the rail system crossed many rivers and water abundant place water could be picked up along the journey until the water was discharged into some distribution system.
This system would need virtually no new infrastructure as the rail roads are already there.
a pipe of say 18 inches diameter would be no real burden to run next to the rail lines.
Cost should not be too bad other than the pipes and the labour.

Now I'll leave the 9th richest economy in the world to its own ideas, as I contemplate a Roman aqueduct without a Hero powered stream engine train running over it, "yet!"
OK, let's go with the pipe idea. How much flow can an 18" pipe carry? Assuming a 2% downgrade, the answer is about 1200 gallons per minute. The average American uses about 180 gallons of water per day. That means an 18" pipeline could supply water for about 7 people, or maybe 14 people if they cut usage in half. That's the maximum capacity without a reservoir, since it doesn't matter how many gallons can be supplied over current use if none of it is stored. Now, let's say we are going to supply water to just 1/4 of California's population. That's about 7.5 million people. If we just used 18" pipes, we'd require about 536,000 pipes, assuming everyone cut the use by half. That would take quite a railroad right of way. Assuming we could cram the pipes and saddles in just 30 inches per pipe, we'd need a right of way of about 44,600 inches (about 8.45 miles) wide.

If that isn't daunting enough, consider, where will all this water go when it discharges at the other end? Some of it could be stored in reservoirs (which still haven't been built) but a fair bit is going to need to be discharged out the other end of the pipe to go...somewhere. None of this counts the hundreds, maybe thousands, of miles of smaller distribution lines that would have to be laid. Where would we put in all these pumping stations, and how would we supply them with power and other infrastructure, like the SCADA systems we'd need to make sure the pipeline hasn't ruptured along the route? A lot of the land these pipes would traverse is barren desert, and that kind of infrastructure isn't available.

We can then get into larger pipes, amount of head required, how we get the pipe across things like grade (level) railroad crossings, people's backyards, that kind of thing. You'd also require an army of armed guards to stop people from the "donating" areas from blowing up the pipeline(s). Look up the Owens Valley in the 1920's if you don't think that might happen.

As you can probably see by now, a cross country pipeline, even if it could be done in time to alleviate this drought, is not trivial and the costs would be very high. It would make a lot more sense to put the money in desalination plants, where most of these issues wouldn't occur, or at least be insurmountable.
The northern branch of the jet stream – that corridor of powerful winds some 30,000 feet above sea level – will snap back to an alignment that draws cold air from Hudson Bay and eastern Canada into the northeastern U.S.

You may have heard about the warm winter weather in Alaska this year – warm enough to force the Iditarod dog sled race to change its course. That has changed since last week, as temperatures in the minus 20s, minus 30s and even minus 40s have taken over much of the northern half of that state.

This is the air that will eventually be tapped and dragged into parts of the northeast U.S. later in the week. Fortunately, it will lose that degree of bitterness as it moves across warmer land masses and mingles with nearby air masses that aren't as extreme.

Unfortunately as we head into the first weekend of spring, a fresh blast of cold air is expected to plunge into the Great Lakes, Northeast and Ohio Valley. Some of this cold air will also bleed into the recently warm Plains and Deep South next week, lingering in areas east of the Mississippi River into at least the first half of next week.
Quoting 68. StormTrackerScott:



I think if the models are right and we get a high end moderate El-Nino to Strong El-Nino then California will then rebuild their water supply but that won't happen until Fall/Winter.

These Cyclones that keep forming near the Equator will keep a steady dose of westerly Wind Burst moving across the Pacific. Here's another one next week.



And here's another on the GFS at the end of the run.


When was the last time the models were right?
Quoting 203. yonzabam:

So, would trucking bottled water into California be more cost effective than building all those 1,000 mile pipelines and pumping it over mountains?
Just getting it over mountains in trucks would not be more cost effective because you'd need additional energy to get the trucks over the mountains. So whatever you saved in startup costs by not building a pipeline at some point you'd start losing by trucking water over the mountains.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

OK, let's go with the pipe idea. How much flow can an 18" pipe carry? Assuming a 2% downgrade, the answer is about 1200 gallons per minute. The average American uses about 180 gallons of water per day. That means an 18" pipeline could supply water for about 7 people, or maybe 14 people if they cut usage in half.


Just checked my last water bill and my usage was 480 gallons/week (68.6/day) but I'm a single guy with 50% shared parental agreement with my daughter and a dog so I guess my household is 1.5 persons plus a pet.

Doing the quick math about the pipeline my math comes out to 9600 people per day (1200 gallons per minute x 60 x 24 / 180). Still a drop in the bucket with 38 million residents.
Quoting 216. sar2401:
OK, let's go with the pipe idea. How much flow can an 18" pipe carry? Assuming a 2% downgrade, the answer is about 1200 gallons per minute. The average American uses about 180 gallons of water per day. That means an 18" pipeline could supply water for about 7 people, or maybe 14 people if they cut usage in half. That's the maximum capacity without a reservoir, since it doesn't matter how many gallons can be supplied over current use if none of it is stored. Now, let's say we are going to supply water to just 1/4 of California's population. That's about 7.5 million people. If we just used 18" pipes, we'd require about 536,000 pipes, assuming everyone cut the use by half. That would take quite a railroad right of way. Assuming we could cram the pipes and saddles in just 30 inches per pipe, we'd need a right of way of about 44,600 inches (about 8.45 miles) wide.

If that isn't daunting enough, consider, where will all this water go when it discharges at the other end? Some of it could be stored in reservoirs (which still haven't been built) but a fair bit is going to need to be discharged out the other end of the pipe to go...somewhere. None of this counts the hundreds, maybe thousands, of miles of smaller distribution lines that would have to be laid. Where would we put in all these pumping stations, and how would we supply them with power and other infrastructure, like the SCADA systems we'd need to make sure the pipeline hasn't ruptured along the route? A lot of the land these pipes would traverse is barren desert, and that kind of infrastructure isn't available.

We can then get into larger pipes, amount of head required, how we get the pipe across things like grade (level) railroad crossings, people's backyards, that kind of thing. You'd also require an army of armed guards to stop people from the "donating" areas from blowing up the pipeline(s). Look up the Owens Valley in the 1920's if you don't think that might happen.

As you can probably see by now, a cross country pipeline, even if it could be done in time to alleviate this drought, is not trivial and the costs would be very high. It would make a lot more sense to put the money in desalination plants, where most of these issues wouldn't occur, or at least be insurmountable.


1,200gpm = 1,728,000 gallons per day. So that serves about 9,600 people per day at 180 avg. You still can't pipe enough water to meet demand though....
Quoting 219. NativeSun:

When was the last time the models were right?


I'd say they were right with forcasting Pam
Quoting bwi:


I think California could support its water needs with a combination of conservation and reduction (elimination ultimately) of agricultural irrigation. Main impact would be turning central valley back over to grassland/desert. California will survive. Cheap almonds and off-season produce, maybe not.
All the farmers in the Central Valley would survive by staring at these grasslands/deserts? Unless we want to just go ahead and put every farmer on total welfare, they generally need to grow something to survive. California produces about half of all the fruits, vegetables, and nuts consumed in the US. You should look at this article before assuming that losing California agriculture would be no big deal.
I don't know if this GWO private firm is good on predicting hurricane seasons but they are for an active season at 14/8/3.Reading thru the GWO press release I don't see any detailed reasons about why they are for an active season. The only thing I found is the following.:

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural %u201CClimate Pulse Enhancement Cycle%u201D that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.
Quoting 151. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 48m 48 minutes ago

2nd-warmest start to March in Miami's history-only the incredible heat of March 2003 surpasses it. Too early for this

The weather we have here in Miami is totally different than what you have near Orlando. Ilive down here and it's really not that hotas we have a nice afternoon sea breeze to help keep us cooler than the land locked area's of Central Florida.
Quoting Greg01:


1,200gpm = 1,728,000 gallons per day. So that serves about 9,600 people per day at 180 avg. You still can't pipe enough water to meet demand though....
Whoops. A little slip of the calculator button there. Even 9600 served would still mean that everyone drew down their allotment per day and no one used over the allotment. Without storage, that's extremely unlikely. And yes, the right of way would be down to "only" about a mile now.
OK, let's go with the pipe idea. How much flow can an 18" pipe carry? Assuming a 2% downgrade, the answer is about 1200 gallons per minute.

That's 1200 X 60 X 24 hours.
That's 1,728,000 gallons per day.
Even if the average Californian American uses 180 gallons a day at least there will be a lot more gallons available and I think that consumption must also be cut, at least in the short term, possibly metered with penalties for using over a daily fixed amount.
After all, what are the other possibility's?
Death from thirst?
The problem is yours, I am only putting forward workable solutions to getting some water to California, which very few people seem to be doing.
At the end of the day, (your day,) the clock, ( your clock,) is ticking, if it doesn't rain soon you will have a major problem.
Please let me know by WU mail a year or so from now how the problem was eventually solved, or what the eventual casualties were.

I was once on a sinking boat in the Atlantic. There were 3 possibilities for us.
1 We sank and drowned.
2 We were rescued. (This did not happen.)
3 We did something about it and survived.

We did some thing about it and as a result of that something I am not on the bottom of the Atlantic sea bed but writing here tonight.
Quoting 223. JrWeathermanFL:



I'd say they were right with forcasting Pam
I'm talking about the Enso models and yes they were somewhat right about Pam.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Here it comes the rapid up tick in sea surface anomalies from Nino 3.4 east to Nino 1&2.



Thanks for the hourly el nino update Scott.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I don't know if this GWO private firm is good on predicting hurricane seasons but they are for an active season at 14/8/3.Reading thru the GWO press release I don't see any detailed reasons about why they are for an active season. The only thing I found is the following.:

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.
GWO is a fraud. Just try to figure out what a “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” really is. This Dilly guy claims he can forecast weather years in advance, can forecast earthquakes years in advance, and has come up a completely new theory for AGW that no other scientist agrees with. Take a look at his earthquake prediction page and see if you think he got anything right.
Quoting 225. Tropicsweatherpr:

I don't know if this GWO private firm is good on predicting hurricane seasons but they are for an active season at 14/8/3.Reading thru the GWO press release I don't see any detailed reasons about why they are for an active season. The only thing I found is the following.:

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural %u201CClimate Pulse Enhancement Cycle%u201D that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.

This group has been brought up before. An organization that gives no reasoning for their forecast is not credible. They also predicted a strong and dangerous season last year.
It's still early... but since I have some time this week (spring break), I felt compelled to finalize my 2015 hurricane season predictions. I've just posted a new blog, with my full thoughts.

If you just want the numbers, I'm going with 8/4/1, and ACE of 40-60% of normal.
Quoting PlazaRed:
OK, let's go with the pipe idea. How much flow can an 18" pipe carry? Assuming a 2% downgrade, the answer is about 1200 gallons per minute.

That's 1200 X 60 X 24 hours.
That's 1,728,000 gallons per day.
Even if the average Californian American uses 180 gallons a day at least there will be a lot more gallons available and I think that consumption must also be cut, at least in the short term, possibly metered with penalties for using over a daily fixed amount.
After all, what are the other possibility's?
Death from thirst?
The problem is yours, I am only putting forward workable solutions to getting some water to California, which very few people seem to be doing.
At the end of the day, (your day,) the clock, ( your clock,) is ticking, if it doesn't rain soon you will have a major problem.
Please let me know by WU mail a year or so from now how the problem was eventually solved, or what the eventual casualties were.

I was once on a sinking boat in the Atlantic. There were 3 possibilities for us.
1 We sank and drowned.
2 We were rescued. (This did not happen.)
3 We did something about it and survived.

We did some thing about it and as a result of that something I am not on the bottom of the Atlantic sea bed but writing here tonight.
We can do something. That something is more money for desalination plants. It will be expensive but much less expensive than thousands of miles of new pipelines. I'm not disagreeing with the need to take further steps, only that water pipelines are not the answer.
Quoting 225. Tropicsweatherpr:

I don't know if this GWO private firm is good on predicting hurricane seasons but they are for an active season at 14/8/3.Reading thru the GWO press release I don't see any detailed reasons about why they are for an active season. The only thing I found is the following.:

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural %u201CClimate Pulse Enhancement Cycle%u201D that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.

Idk. I heard their accuracy is about 87%. They're also forecasting 3 US landfalls,and at least 1 major US strike. If you go on their website, Sandy was predicted two years in advance, as well as Irene. These are their claims. Also they claim they were the only agency who predicted a weak 2013 hurricane season,unlike other agencies.
236. 882MB
Nathan you are just one pesky little bug. Now you want to go back and bug those folks in Queensland again. GFS has Nathan gaining strength once exiting Queensland and entering the Gulf of Carpentaria, and moving ashore on the Northern Territory.







Quoting 229. NativeSun:

I'm talking about the Enso models and yes they were somewhat right about Pam.


Oh well in that case.. :P
Quoting 220. LowerCal:

Just getting it over mountains in trucks would not be more cost effective because you'd need additional energy to get the trucks over the mountains. So whatever you saved in startup costs by not building a pipeline at some point you'd start losing by trucking water over the mountains.

Hard to fathom the sheer number of trucks that would be needed...the increase in heavy truck traffic, etc., that would be required to meet the 'deficit'.

Sooo, in keeping with the tradition of today's blog, I did some calcs :)

38.8 million Californians (US Census, 2014 est)
90 gal/pp/day for household use only (average, per USGS)
11,600 gal - large tanker truck

38.8 million * 90 gal/dy = 3,492,000,000 gal/dy

3,492,000,000 gal/day / 11,600 gal/truck = 301,034 trucks/day (for household use only)

Even if Californians used half that amount daily, and, say, the trucking would supply half the need of household use, that's still 75,000 trucks/day coming long distance. Doesn't seem practical, and it doesn't address the majority of water usage and needs, which are non-household.
239. 882MB
Information from http://www.solarham.net/

VHF Aurora Opening Watch:
Severe geomagnetic storming (KP=8) continues this afternoon. Sky watchers across Northern Europe, the UK and Scandinavia should experience brilliant aurora displays this evening. On the radio front, ham operators located at higher latitudes in Europe are now making VHF contacts via the AU. Radio operators located in the northern tier USA and Canada should have their antennas north and ready this evening local time. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continues to point south and is prolonging this major geomagnetic event.


Quoting 234. sar2401:

We can do something. That something is more money for desalination plants. It will be expensive but much less expensive than thousands of miles of new pipelines. I'm not disagreeing with the need to take further steps, only that water pipelines are not the answer.

Whose more money for desalination plants? If I'm not mistaken, farmers in the Central Valley pay somewhere around $20 per acre-foot for irrigation water while water from a desalination plant costs in the neighborhood of $2000 per acre-foot. If desalination really is the best answer for California then people will have to face up to farming in the Central Valley being no longer economically feasible.

Gonna Head home but will note the following (on the issue of Florida heat) based upon living and spending considerable amounts time in my life in a) Florida Keys, b) Miami-Ft Lauderdale, c) Orlando area, d) current residence in Tallahassee. A sea breeze/ocean breeze helps cool things down if the temp is 90; it might be hot but the breeze helps until you go inland to the parking lot and streets; then the 90 almost kills you. 90 in the streets of Miami-Ft. Lauderdale away from the beaches is brutal when the air is humid (in August) and soaks in; 90 does not feel as bad under the clothing in North Florida (drier air inland) but you still feel hot and sweat a bit. The hottest day in Florida I ever experienced was for a wedding in July (I have no idea why that was the date-month day they chose) in Clermont (just North of Orlando) where the air temp was around 100 (with the car thermometer registering in at around 110); I swore I would never go back there in the summer (middle of the State in July with no sea breeze).

The bottom line is that humidity is the big issue whether a humid cold or heat; it sinks down to the bone. But a dry, no breeze heat (and especially in the city streets-heat islands) is just a brutal.

Best place to be in Florida on these really hot days if you have to be outside are a) on the water, b) under a tree/shade, c) under a Tiki Hut sipping cold beverages.
242. yoboi
Quoting 238. LAbonbon:


Hard to fathom the sheer number of trucks that would be needed...the increase in heavy truck traffic, etc., that would be required to meet the 'deficit'.

Sooo, in keeping with the tradition of today's blog, I did some calcs :)

38.8 million Californians (US Census, 2014 est)
90 gal/pp/day for household use only (average, per USGS)
11,600 gal - large tanker truck

38.8 million * 90 gal/dy = 3,492,000,000 gal/dy

3,492,000,000 gal/day / 11,600 gal/truck = 301,034 trucks/day (for household use only)

Even if Californians used half that amount daily, and, say, the trucking would supply half the need of household use, that's still 75,000 trucks/day coming long distance. Doesn't seem practical, and it doesn't address the majority of water usage and needs, which are non-household.




sections of California are known for dry climate.....The people that invested in farming there should have known the risk....I know the risk where I am at....
Made it to 80.1 here about 30 minutes ago.

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:57 PM PDT on March 17, 2015
Clear
79.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 78 °F
Humidity: 23%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 12.0 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Quoting 228. PlazaRed:

(snip)

The problem is yours, I am only putting forward workable solutions to getting some water to California, which very few people seem to be doing.



(snip)


I wouldn't agree that very few people are working towards solutions. California has a pretty good web page out, which communicates quite well (IMHO) what they are doing. There are also quite a number of other sites that are communicating the same or similar information.

Quoting 242. yoboi:




sections of California are known for dry climate.....The people that invested in farming there should have known the risk....I know the risk where I am at....

How do you feel about growing veggies? Some of that production in California may need to be picked up by other states...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Gonna Head home but will note the following (on the issue of Florida heat) based upon living and spending considerable amounts time in my life in a) Florida Keys, b) Miami-Ft Lauderdale, c) Orlando area, d) current residence in Tallahassee. A sea breeze/ocean breeze helps cool things down if the temp is 90; it might be hot but the breeze helps until you go inland to the parking lot and streets; the the 90 almost kills you. 90 in the streets of Miami-Ft. Lauderdale away from the beaches is brutal when the air is humid (in August) and soaks in; 90 does not feel as bad under the clothing in North Florida (drier air inland) but you still feel hot a sweat a bit. The hottest day in Florida I ever experienced was for a wedding in July (I have no idea why that was the date-month day they chose) in Clermont (just North of Orlando) where the air temp was around 100 (with the car thermometer registering in at around 110); I swore I would never go back there in the summer (middle of the State in July with no sea breeze).

The bottom line is that humidity is the big issue whether a humid cold or heat; it sinks down to the bone. But a dry, no breeze heat (and especially in the city streets-heat islands) is just a brutal.

Best place to be in Florida on these really hot days if you have to be outside are a) on the water, b) under a tree/shade, c) under a Tiki Hut sipping cold beverages.


During the Summer months I've found the late morning (10am - 12am) to be the most uncomfortable time of the day.
The sun is blazing, humidity is very high, and the wind is calm.
Once the Sea/Ocean/Gulf breeze kicks in around 12pm -1pm (give or take a little) it feels much better outside.
Then around 2pm - 4pm the Thunderstorms are firing off and you get some heavy rain and a nice gust front and the temps usually drop down into the 70s.
247. yoboi
Quoting 245. LAbonbon:


I wouldn't agree that very few people are working towards solutions. California has a pretty good web page out, which communicates quite well (IMHO) what they are doing. There are also quite a number of other sites that are communicating the same or similar information.


How do you feel about growing veggies? Some of that production in California may need to be picked up by other states...


I think not only other states but other countries will need to pick up the slack.....If you look at the global picture unneeded sanctions need to be lifted for free trade concerning food.....I know a lot of rice farmers around here think sanctions that might be eased concerning cuba will help exporting rice to there
I saved this a while back. Shows the hot spot in the state.
Quoting 247. yoboi:



I think not only other states but other countries will need to pick up the slack.....If you look at the global picture unneeded sanctions need to be lifted for free trade concerning food.....I know a lot of rice farmers around here think sanctions that might be eased concerning cuba will help exporting rice to there

Would that mean we'd have to take food from everywhere else? (I know zilch about sanctions re: food)

I'm asking because I don't particularly want to consume food from China (due to lower standards and contamination).
Quoting 243. PedleyCA:

Made it to 80.1 here about 30 minutes ago.

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:57 PM PDT on March 17, 2015
Clear
79.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 78 °F
Humidity: 23%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 12.0 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

85 here. But cooling off (a little bit) to 70s/80 for the remainder of the week.
Quoting yoboi:


If you look at the big picture California does not produce the majority of "Global" food crops....You know wheat corn rice... vegetables fruit and nuts are nice but not really Global crops....
California's farms and ranches pull in about $45 billion a year from the things they produce. The state grows nearly half of US-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables, and US consumers everywhere regularly purchase several crops produced only in California. Milk pulls in $7.6 billion, almonds $5.8 billion, grapes (table and wine) $5.6 billion, with many billions more in beef, strawberries, walnuts, lettuce, hay, tomatoes, and the like. So far as "global" crops, California produces about 80% of the world's almond crop; it's avocados are eaten in many dozens of countries; and its wines are consumed everywhere, as it's the world's fourth largest producer.

Bottom line, then: downplaying either California's importance to agriculture or the severity of the current drought is, frankly, ignorant.
Quoting yoboi:


I think not only other states but other countries will need to pick up the slack....
You realize, of course, that the entire planet is in trouble from climate change; there'll be no "picking up the slack".
Quoting 250. LAbonbon:


85 here. But cooling off (a little bit) to 70s/80 for the remainder of the week.


Rest of the week here is mid to high 70's.... sweet
Quoting 248. Sfloridacat5:

I saved this a while back. Shows the hot spot in the state.


Out of curiosity, I looked up Immokalee to see where it fell on your map, as I recall that location several times on here as having the highest FL temp. And it's in the red...
Quoting 253. yoboi:




Yeah we would have to....The globe will have to adapt to maintain the growing population...Global food should not have sanctions....

yoboi, I'm all for spreading the food around, but China is producing some gross stuff. I've had frozen soybeans that tasted metallic, checked online, and the same brand, produced in China, had a previous recall of soybeans for heavy metal contamination.

Someone on here posted a year or so ago about the levels of contamination in Chinese food products; can't recall the percentage, but it was really high.
257. vis0
Quoting 28. sar2401:

A tornado in Alabama? On Thursday? Not very likely. Whatever small chance exists would be more like tomorrow afternoon or evening. We might get a few elevated thunderstorms but not much more than that. Mississippi might have a slightly better chance but even there, the instability is just not going to be very high. We went most of last week with better instability parameters than we'll have tomorrow and didn't manage to squeeze one thunderstorm out of it. I'm just hoping I get some actual rain. There hasn't been much of that either.
oh great one oh ...wait its Sar2401 not Grothar ...oh great 2nd one, careful the natures strong southern jet trumping the ml-d by~20-33% coupled with ml-d's push-pull keep an open eye to the sky or ear to NOAA radio OR in other words mercury is in its 2nd quad. signaling a return of the phrase"DY-NO-MITE" means severe weather is 60% higher withing the ml-d's AOIs than thought up to 24 hrs before they happen.  SERIOUS NOTE:: i wish you could see the sudden gusts (from 2mph to 20+mph in secs once every ~30 mins out my window) that's a sign of energy shifting and when it reaches an active area that gusts then has multiple  FOLDs and BIG wx related thing bomb out, the latter is not a joke. i'm worried that energy can be translated into a quake by the sudden cooling of large underground pressurized (rock) areas therefore the tiny cooling over a large area causes a slight shift and triggers quakes.
Quoting 244. yoboi:



If you look at the big picture California does not produce the majority of "Global" food crops....You know wheat corn rice... vegetables fruit and nuts are nice but not really Global crops....


I have a hard time believing this is a serious comment, even from you yoboi.
Quoting 251. Neapolitan:

California's farms and ranches pull in about $45 billion a year from the things they produce. The state grows nearly half of US-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables, and US consumers everywhere regularly purchase several crops produced only in California. Milk pulls in $7.6 billion, almonds $5.8 billion, grapes (table and wine) $5.6 billion, with many billions more in beef, strawberries, walnuts, lettuce, hay, tomatoes, and the like. So far as "global" crops, California produces about 80% of the world's almond crop; it's avocados are eaten in many dozens of countries; and its wines are consumed everywhere, as it's the world's fourth largest producer.

Bottom line, then: downplaying either California's importance to agriculture or the severity of the current drought is, frankly, ignorant.You realize, of course, that the entire planet is in trouble from climate change; there'll be no "picking up the slack".


You are very good at using Google Search.
261. MahFL
Quoting 234. sar2401:

... That something is more money for desalination plants...


They built one, then it rained, and the plant was not needed, some of the desalination gear was sold to a middle eastern country, the plant itself is derelict.
Quoting 260. jrweatherman:



You are very good at using Google Search.


Too bad everyone isn't. ;)
Worldwide, over the last 40 years, women are having fewer children, from 4.7 children per woman in 1970 to an average of 2.5 children today.


Source
Quoting 242. yoboi:




sections of California are known for dry climate.....The people that invested in farming there should have known the risk....I know the risk where I am at....

The risk where you are being what... none?! You claim to be paid a federal subsidy for NOT growing rice.
Quoting 255. yoboi:



Neap maybe you should study humanitarian aid and see what is shipped when many lives are on the line needing basic necessity's to survive.....


Maybe you should learn that removing a major agricultural production center has global repercussions. Maybe you should learn that you can't just grow food wherever the hell you want. Maybe you should learn that replacing said major agricultural center that has had decades of infrastructure put in place to support it can't magically be replicated somewhere else in the world overnight, even if you could find the arable land and climate conditions necessary to grow the crops.

Agriculture is not easy, and heavily relies on the regional climate and environmental conditions to be productive. Other regions, states, countries, etc. cannot simply "pick up the slack". And you'd be pretty damn naive to think that the shutting down of a major agricultural producer (California or some other place) would have no economical impact.
267. yoboi
Quoting 264. LowerCal:


The risk where you are being what... none?! You claim to be paid a federal subsidy for NOT growing rice.


Because of crop rotation....some take advantage thru loopholes by not planting anything....and that practice should end...but I don't make the laws just follow them.....
Quoting 263. LAbonbon:

Worldwide, over the last 40 years, women are having fewer children, from 4.7 children per woman in 1970 to an average of 2.5 children today.


Source


1970 was a great year :)
Cyclone Nathan, which was heavily sheared with a partially-exposed center this time yesterday, is organizing quickly this afternoon as upper-level winds slacken. The system's structure resembles a backward comma, with the development of at least one prominent spiral band and the beginnings of a central dense overcast.

Quoting 258. aquak9:

The globe will have to adapt to maintain the growing population.

Just think what problems would be solved if we could figure out how to use birth control.

Oh, wait- we already have it? And we STILL breed like stupid bunnies?

Then let us DIE like stupid bunnies.


I aint going out without a fight...

272. 882MB
In this image below we have Nathan, who I like to call the bugger. Because he just wont leave Queensland alone. He wants to this time cross Queensland and remerge in the Gulf of Carpentaria, then making another landfall on the Northern Territory, in Australia. Now, 97P large circulation to the right, looks to be our next cyclone in this basin. Not expected to be a Blockbuster storm like Pam, but could pose a threat to the Fiji islands. I don't trust long range models but GFS has consistently been developing a stronger Tropical cyclone 10 days out impacting this area near Fiji again. But we all know the GFS 10 days out (COUGHING).



PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 6.6
* ORIGIN TIME 2213 UTC MAR 17 2015
* COORDINATES 1.7 NORTH 126.6 EAST
* DEPTH 53 KM / 33 MILES
* LOCATION HALMAHERA INDONESIA

EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.6 OCCURRED IN
HALMAHERA, INDONESIA AT 2213 UTC ON TUESDAY MARCH 17 2015.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT
FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.



JMA thought there could be a small one....

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY NWPTAC(JMA)
ISSUED AT 2234Z 17 MAR 2015
PART 01 OF 01 PARTS
HYPOCENTRAL PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME:2213Z 17 MAR 2015
PRELIMINARY EPICENTER:LAT01.7NORTH LON126.6EAST
NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
BORNEO - SULAWESI
MAG:6.6
BY PTWC
EVALUATION
THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI
ESTIMATION AT THE FORECAST POINTS - NO TSUNAMIS WITH
AMPLITUDE OF 0.5 METER OR OVER ARE EXPECTED AT ANY OF THEM.
HOWEVER AT SOME COASTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE EPICENTER, HIGHER
TSUNAMIS MAY ARRIVE THAN OUR ESTIMATION
AUTHORITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE
EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS.
274. 882MB
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Nathan, which was heavily sheared with a partially-exposed center this time yesterday, is organizing quickly this afternoon as upper-level winds slacken. The system's structure resembles a backward comma, with the development of at least one prominent spiral band and the beginnings of a central dense overcast.




I noticed that too. I wont be surprised if he gets stronger then predicted. Cyclone Nathan is expected to come ashore as category 1. But he still has 1 to 2 days over water. Hopefully this one is not another surprise, like Marcia.
275. beell
Quoting 258. aquak9:

The globe will have to adapt to maintain the growing population.

Just think what problems would be solved if we could figure out how to use birth control.

Oh, wait- we already have it? And we STILL breed like stupid bunnies?

Then let us DIE like stupid bunnies.


Well, we could all pitch in and tighten our belts a little. I suppose I could give up pistachios, almonds, and lettuce-and work on getting my daily income down to around $10 per day and fall inline with 80% of the global population.


Quoting 211. yonzabam:

We're having an eclipse of the sun on Friday, here in Scotland, with 98% totality in the far north, but just 80% in the south, where I live. Cloud cover is a huge problem for such events here. I've given up even trying to see meteor showers, due to the incessant cloud cover.

The last one was in 1999, which was the first and only eclipse I've seen. Luckily, the sky was clear, that day.

Link

Okay then, THE ECLIPSE! It has been in German media for about four weeks now (at least) because it may threaten the maintenance of power in our grid. I haven't posted it in here yet because I didn't want to bore you with the same thing many weeks out. But now THE END really is approaching (March 20 it is), and in some way it's weather related. Sunshine or not? To be or not to be? --- Okay, I don't want to make a joke of it. We'll see what happens. At least, the lords of our grid had time to prepare (and they would prefer an overcast sky anyway) ...

Solar eclipse could strain Europe's power grid
Deutsche Welle English, March 17, 2015
A solar eclipse Friday could knock out photovoltaic power production. Scientists say the rapid expansion of solar panels makes the solar event an unprecedented test for Europe's grid.
Sunny skies preceding Friday's solar eclipse could wreak havoc on Europe's power grid, the region's power providers warned this week.
If the morning of March 20 turns out to be especially sunny before the moon moves between the sun and earth to block most of the sun's rays, the sudden drop-off in solar energy production could reach 34,000 megawatts (MW) - equivalent to about 80 medium-sized conventional power plants, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (Entso-e).
"For the first time this is expected to have a relevant impact on the secure operation of the European power system," Entso-e said in a statement. "Solar eclipses have happened before but with the increase of installed photovoltaic energy generation, the risk of an incident could be serious without appropriate countermeasures."
That's because solar production has increased nearly a hundredfold since 1999 - the last comparable solar eclipse in Europe.
Germany, with a solar capacity of 40,000 megawatts, stands to take the hardest hit by the 2-minute plunge into afternoon darkness. Add Italy (with a capacity of 20,000 megawatts) and Spain (6,700 megawatts) as well as France (5,700 megawatts) as countries with significant solar power production.
Technicians monitoring western Europe's power grids will coordinate with each other to compensate for a sizeable drop in production to minimize disruptions, said Konstantin Staschus, secretary general of Entso-e.
"Control centers in Europe will be in constant communication during the eclipse," Straschus said.
If the weather is overcast - not unusual for the month of March - the impact should be negligible, the Germany's Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems said recently.
Scientists at the Freiburg-based institute ran models showing that conventional power plants and water released at hydrodams should be able to help mitigate the impact from a drop in solar production.
Germany's 1.4 million solar installations comprised nearly 6 percent of its energy mix in 2014, but this is increasing in order to reach its 2050 target of sourcing 80 percent of its energy from renewable sources.
jar/kms (AP, AFP)


It's only a partial eclipse over Europe and none in the US:
Quoting 264. LowerCal:


The risk where you are being what... none?! You claim to be paid a federal subsidy for NOT growing rice.
'

Yes, Farmers all over are paid for NOT growing things or for growing a particular crop... California wasn't always like this, so they did know where they were going. They farmed a place that used to have plenty of water as long as it was managed correctly. Now, because of a drought that no one could have seen coming, they will have issues. I seem to remember the dust bowl in the 1930's was something not forecasted and had devastating nationwide repercussions. One of the reason farming method have changed over the years.

So while my question was what does it cost to not have water in California, the answer is a LOT to a lot of people not just in California.

BTW, why would you build only an 18" water pipe if you where going to do it. At least 36" and the amount of water per minute you cna pump through is not doubled. It still isn't enough on its own though. Kinda curious the cost of running a desal plant in terms of cost per Gal?
Quoting 272. 882MB:

In this image below we have Nathan, who I like to call the bugger. Because he just wont leave Queensland alone. He wants to this time cross Queensland and remerge in the Gulf of Carpentaria, then making another landfall on the Northern Territory, in Australia. Now, 97P large circulation to the right, looks to be our next cyclone in this basin. Not expected to be a Blockbuster storm like Pam, but could pose a threat to the Fiji islands. I don't trust long range models but GFS has consistently been developing a stronger Tropical cyclone 10 days out impacting this area near Fiji again. But we all know the GFS 10 days out (COUGHING).






I don't trust models 10 days out but I have to give GFS big kudos for sniffing TC PAM with many days in advance and also the intensity.
Quoting 222. Greg01:



1,200gpm = 1,728,000 gallons per day. So that serves about 9,600 people per day at 180 avg. You still can't pipe enough water to meet demand though....

Of course not, it's a silly argument as we would never have the resources to keep going in a total drought that lasted a decade or more. To put it inperspective I did a calculation and using the area of California found what 1 mm of water weighs. 1 millimeter of water over the whole surface weighs almost 424 million metric tons.
As far as the pipeline goes...where is your source? I hate to break it to everyone, but the Southwest is dry, the Rockies Mtns. are dry...and spoken for anyway. So where would you get it? There's no place to get it.
280. 882MB
Quoting 278. Tropicsweatherpr:



I don't trust models 10 days out but I have to give GFS big kudos for sniffing TC PAM with many days in advance and also the intensity.


Totally agree, you do have a point on that. And if am not wrong when Tropical cyclone Pam was developing, GFS was already sniffing out what is now 97P. Who knows probably GFS isn't going nuts this year.
Quoting 279. bwtranch:


Of course not, it's a silly argument as we would never have the resources to keep going in a total drought that lasted a decade or more. To put it inperspective I did a calculation and using the area of California found what 1 mm of water weighs. 1 millimeter of water over the whole surface weighs almost 424 million metric tons.
As far as the pipeline goes...where is your source? I hate to break it to everyone, but the Southwest is dry, the Rockies Mtns. are dry...and spoken for anyway. So where would you get it? There's no place to get it.


Alaska... WE have so much water where I am I pay a flat rate per month no matter how much I use. they even tell you - water your yard, make it look pretty. Doesn't matter...

Almost scary as one day, we probably won't have it... I also hate it because there is ZERO incentive to fix a running toilet, leaky faucet, etc...


Federal agency: Starving sea lions, seabirds may mark big shift to warmer, more barren Pacific

Starving sea lion pups and seabirds up and down the West Coast this year may be part of a large-scale shift of the Pacific Ocean to warmer and less productive conditions, according to a new federal fisheries report.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration presented the findings on the warming Pacific in an annual report on the state of the waters off California.

“We are in some ways entering a situation we haven’t seen before,” Cisco Werner, director of the Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla, California, said in a statement from NOAA. The situation demands that scientists consider the impact on ocean life as a whole, Werner said.

From 2014, waters off Southern California and the Gulf of Alaska turned significantly warmer than usual. The so-called “warm blobs” have grown to cover most of the West Coast, making for record-high water temperatures.


Link
Did you see all the snow geese flying back to Alaska died in Idaho - over 2,000 birds...

http://www.adn.com/article/20150317/2000-snow-gee se-en-route-alaska-die-illness-idaho-during-migrat ion

Link

Not good...
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:

Idk. I heard their accuracy is about 87%. They're also forecasting 3 US landfalls,and at least 1 major US strike. If you go on their website, Sandy was predicted two years in advance, as well as Irene. These are their claims. Also they claim they were the only agency who predicted a weak 2013 hurricane season,unlike other agencies.
You "heard" their accuracy is about 87%? Where did you hear that? Dilly just flat lies. You're a smart kid. Use the Wayback machine to look at the site going back in time. You'll see that he either outright lies or twists other events that he really "predicted", even if he didn't. It's the same kind of tricks used by the Old Farmer's Almanac. You've been told multiple times that GWO is not a legitimate weather site. I'm getting the feeling you want to believe it because the numbers match up with your wishes.
Quoting Dakster:
Did you see all the snow geese flying back to Alaska died in Idaho - over 2,000 birds...

http://www.adn.com/article/20150317/2000-snow-gee se-en-route-alaska-die-illness-idaho-during-migrat ion

Link

Not good...
There were only 2,000 snow geese in the whole world?
How's your Temp today Dakster? Was 80.6F here......
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
10:37 AM EST March 18 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (990 hPa) located at 15.2S 149.2E or 415 kilometers east northeast of Cairns and 425 kilometers east of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical cyclone Nathan should begin to adopt more of a westwards track during today while continuing to intensify as it approaches the north Queensland coast. At this stage, tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to cross the north Queensland coast between Cape Melville and Cairns during Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h currently extend out to approximately 150 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell on Thursday night before extending north to Coen and over adjacent inland areas, including Palmerville and Laura on Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE and VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to develop near the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Coen and Innisfail overnight Thursday or during Friday morning, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Coen and Cardwell are specifically warned of the possibility of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea may rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 15.2S 148.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 15.3S 147.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3) east of Cooktown
48 HRS 15.3S 144.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland near Cooktown
72 HRS 14.6S 140.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
===========================
Tropical cyclone Nathan has noticeably developed in the last 6 to 12 hours with the system now more symmetric in appearance compared to this time yesterday. The development overnight has been attributed to the noticeably lower shear across the system, which is evident on the recent satellite imagery and depicted by a zone of 5 to 10 knot shear on the CIMMS vertical wind shear product.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 1.0 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT are 4.0 and 3.5 respectively. FT based on DT as it appears clear. The location of the center is rated as good based on the Willis Island radar.

Tropical cyclone Nathan has been moving in a general southwestwards direction overnight, but it is expected to adopt more of a westwards track today as it begins to be steered by a mid-level ridge extending across central Australia. Confidence in the system holding this westwards track into the north Queensland coast is fairly high considering the strength of the mid-level ridge and the fact that most of the computer model guidance have tropical cyclone Nathan crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville and Cairns during Friday morning. After crossing the coast, tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a westwards direction and possibly re-emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria by Saturday.

Given the diagnosed low vertical wind shear environment, tropical cyclone Nathan is forecast to intensify into a category 3 system on its way into the north Queensland coast. Computer model guidance generally support the category 3 forecast into the coast, but given the favorable environment for development it is possible that a period of rapid intensification could occur and that the system could reach category 4 intensity prior to landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for areas from Coen to Cardwell
For those that live up in the northern tier of states should have a nice show of the aurora tonight the geo storm seems to be holding its own with a kp index of 8. Could also be seen in the middle areas as the night goes on weather permitting

Biggest solar storm impact of this solar cycle going on. Some sites have said as low as middle CONUS. Space weather puts it here...
Link

REAL TIME AURORA BOREALIS PREDICTION:

Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora):

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program estimates that . . .

in 4 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 19 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 33 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 7.33 -- at STORM LEVEL!

Quoting 290. HadesGodWyvern:

Link

REAL TIME AURORA BOREALIS PREDICTION:

Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora):

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program estimates that . . .

in 4 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 19 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 33 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 7.33 -- at STORM LEVEL!
I was noticing the increase too last hour was 6.7 this hour is 7.3 and the four hour forecast is 8.3.   I should get a good show hope others do as well
Quoting Dakster:
'

Yes, Farmers all over are paid for NOT growing things or for growing a particular crop... California wasn't always like this, so they did know where they were going. They farmed a place that used to have plenty of water as long as it was managed correctly. Now, because of a drought that no one could have seen coming, they will have issues. I seem to remember the dust bowl in the 1930's was something not forecasted and had devastating nationwide repercussions. One of the reason farming method have changed over the years.

So while my question was what does it cost to not have water in California, the answer is a LOT to a lot of people not just in California.

BTW, why would you build only an 18" water pipe if you where going to do it. At least 36" and the amount of water per minute you cna pump through is not doubled. It still isn't enough on its own though. Kinda curious the cost of running a desal plant in terms of cost per Gal?
To produce desalinated water in the US is between $0.29 and about a dollar per 100 gallons. The main variable is the cost of energy, since it takes lots of it to produce desalinated water. Building very large capcity plants also reduces the cost per gallon. At somewhere between three-tenths of a cent to about a peny per gallon, it's much cheaper than any other alternative. There's also a chance plants could get done in a reasonable period time, another thing that can't be said for pipelines.

Larger pipes can transport more water but the difficulties of using larger pipes goes up like the Richter scale. There's a huge pressure loss as you go up in pipe sizes so you have to slam more water through the pipe to maintain head. If you don't, the head pressure can drop to zero in as little as 100 meters. No head pressure means no water at the other end. The price of larger pipes goes up like the Richter scale as well. At 36" ID you're starting to get into penstock piping. You need a big drop - like a couple hundred feet to a mile - in order to maintain head pressure. The pipe needs to lined with something like coal tar or one its more modern equivalents, the sections have to be bolted together, and the pipe saddles have to absolutely stable. A break in a large diameter pipe can cause a big flood in a short period of time.
Quoting beell:


Well, we could all pitch in and tighten our belts a little. I suppose I could give up pistachios, almonds, and lettuce-and work on getting my daily income down to around $10 per day and fall inline with 80% of the global population.


Just retire and then try to live on the paltry income from everything you've managed to save over the past 40 years. You'll find being headed toward $10 a day just comes naturally. :-)
Quoting 277. Dakster:

'

Yes, Farmers all over are paid for NOT growing things or for growing a particular crop... California wasn't always like this, so they did know where they were going. They farmed a place that used to have plenty of water as long as it was managed correctly. Now, because of a drought that no one could have seen coming, they will have issues. I seem to remember the dust bowl in the 1930's was something not forecasted and had devastating nationwide repercussions. One of the reason farming method have changed over the years.

So while my question was what does it cost to not have water in California, the answer is a LOT to a lot of people not just in California.

BTW, why would you build only an 18" water pipe if you where going to do it. At least 36" and the amount of water per minute you cna pump through is not doubled. It still isn't enough on its own though. Kinda curious the cost of running a desal plant in terms of cost per Gal?

The pipe is a pipe dream. Thanks to all who gave their calculators some exercise regarding that idea.

Good answer on the cost of no water in California. The agricultural production won't just come from somewhere else as yoboi so glibly states. How much of the world's arable land is not already currently in use?
Quoting nymore:

I was noticing the increase too last hour was 6.7 this hour is 7.3 and the four hour forecast is 8.3.   I should get a good show hope others do as well
It's sure doing weird things with HF radio propagation. I was able to talk to a guy from Nepal a little earlier on 7.237 MHz. Nepal is a rare catch. I can neither talk to nor hear anyone in the SE on 40 or 20 meters, something I do almost every night. I wish that meant I had a good chance of seeing an aurora down here but that's not looking too hopeful. Too bad, because I have a nice clear night.
Quoting 278. Tropicsweatherpr:



I don't trust models 10 days out but I have to give GFS big kudos for sniffing TC PAM with many days in advance and also the intensity.




I was also pretty impressed with the GFS. They picked up on TC pam being very intense about a week out. They got it right about Pam pretty much not moving for a couple of days, then moving southwest close to Vanuatu, then recurving southeast passing north of New Zealand. They were a little too aggressive on intensity (it didn't hit sub-870 mb) but 896 mb is still pretty powerful. Unfortunately it happened to hit one of the world's poorest countries.
August 21st, 2017 will have an incredible solar eclipse that'll be visible to the entirety of the CONUS. I'll probably drive up a little north of Charleston, SC there to witness it.

This week In California all of the Central Valley, northern and southern, and the northern coast sunk further into deficits of precipitation needed to end drought.

While South Florida looks forward to their rain season with anticipation California looks back on theirs with on theirs with disappointment.



Maps source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/regional_monitoring/addpcp.gif
(BTW if anyone knows of an archive by date of the above map I would be grateful for a link.)
Quoting 298. CybrTeddy:

August 21st, 2017 will have an incredible solar eclipse that'll be visible to the entirety of the CONUS. I'll probably drive up a little north of Charleston, SC there to witness it.





I'll probably drive to Hopkinsville, KY or Makanda, IL for that one. With my luck it'll be cloudy. :/
Quoting 235. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Idk. I heard their accuracy is about 87%. They're also forecasting 3 US landfalls,and at least 1 major US strike. If you go on their website, Sandy was predicted two years in advance, as well as Irene. These are their claims. Also they claim they were the only agency who predicted a weak 2013 hurricane season,unlike other agencies.


No dude. Just stop. You're a vibrant kid and I don't want you not understanding good science enough not to utilize skepticism, one of its core components.

They claim all kinds of BS. They charge for their forecasts. I've told you this before. Any agency that does that... automatically gets a red flag.

Also, they "claimed" that last year would be a far more active season than 2013. They're idiots. Don't listen to them.
Quoting 280. 882MB:



Totally agree, you do have a point on that. And if am not wrong when Tropical cyclone Pam was developing, GFS was already sniffing out what is now 97P. Who knows probably GFS isn't going nuts this year.



I hope it doesn't throw out a ghost storm in the Gulf and/or Caribbean like it did last may and june.
Quoting yoboi:


Well I am pretty sure the people impacted from Pam the priority would be grain products and fresh water..... and not "strawberries, walnuts, lettuce, hay, tomatoes," no???
What does the production of fruits, nuts, and vegetables in California have to do with what people need right now in Vanuatu??? You're a past master at this. Never answer any question but always bring up something new and completely unrelated to sow some FUD into the mix. California produces wheat (a little over 4 million bushels last year) and rice (second only to Arkansas) but you already knew this, didn't you???
Like that printer commercial: Don't supersize, italicize!
Quoting 305. KoritheMan:



Lol wtf?

Kori, the proper response is this :)
Wait who is beating who up?
Quoting 309. TimTheWxMan:

Like that printer commercial: Don't supersize, italicize!


What did you do tim
Quoting 312. VAbeachhurricanes:



What did you do tim




I noticed that the comments suddenly became italicized i parodied that one printer commercial.
Quoting 309. TimTheWxMan:

Like that printer commercial: Don't supersize, italicize!


Dude, you literally just caused the blog italicize itself. Fix, pls. >_>
Quoting 310. LAbonbon:


Kori, the proper response is this :)



I was thinking "puberty is a b****", but that might be antithetical to making the guy feel better. :P
Is the problem in #308? If that was deleted, would it fix the problem?
Quoting 314. KoritheMan:



Dude, you literally just caused the blog italicize itself. Fix, pls. >_>



I only said it after it happened exactly 15 minutes ago. Don't italicize, go back to normal blog! XD
Quoting 317. TimTheWxMan:




I only said it after it happened exactly 15 minutes ago. Don't italicize, go back to normal blog! XD


ffs, just try removing comment 308. That's what did it.

Silly Timothy.
Quoting 317. TimTheWxMan:




I only said it after it happened exactly 15 minutes ago. Don't italicize, go back to normal blog! XD


Tim are you awizard
Are we still italicized???

No wonder I had this strange desire for pizza.
You can't F12 and console mode on this website? what the heck...
Quoting 319. VAbeachhurricanes:



Tim are you awizard



It worked! I have the power!
Quoting 320. Grothar:

Are we still italicized???

No wonder I had this strange desire for pizza.


Nope. With my wizarding powers, i fixed it! At least it isn't 1692! You probably remember the witch trials very vividly.
Quoting 324. TimTheWxMan:



Nope. With my wizarding powers, i fixed it! At least it isn't 1692! You probably remember the witch trials very vividly.


Uh definitely still are
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



It worked! I have the power!
There you go. Another HTML back door our crack programmers should have closed. :-)
Quoting 324. TimTheWxMan:



Nope. With my wizarding powers, i fixed it! At least it isn't 1692! You probably remember the witch trials very vividly.

Tim, can you extend those wizard powers and delete #308? Please...just humor us...
Quoting 323. sar2401:

What I wrote as nothing to do with your age. It has to do with what you wrote. Several of us have told you that GWO isn't a trustworthy site. It isn't hard to track this down using Google -

Dilley predicts that the 2014 hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, will be an above-average season. He said there will be 17 named storms and eight hurricanes, three of them Category 3 or greater. Link

Now go to GWO and see what he **says** he predicted. Does that not look like a lie to you? He ranks hurricanes based on an "Accumulative Hurricane Index", something he invented and doesn't disclose how the rankings work. I could do really great at hurricane forecasting if you let me use my own ranking scale.

This also has nothing to do with "cyber bullying". It has to do with you learning to be skeptical. The internet is filled with truth and fiction and you'd better learn to separate the two if you hope to be a scientist. As for the rest of your diatribe, you also need to learn some self-control.


Sar you are gonna get beat up, just accept it.

You bully.
Quoting 323. sar2401:

What I wrote as nothing to do with your age. It has to do with what you wrote. Several of us have told you that GWO isn't a trustworthy site. It isn't hard to track this down using Google -

Dilley predicts that the 2014 hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, will be an above-average season. He said there will be 17 named storms and eight hurricanes, three of them Category 3 or greater. Link

Now go to GWO and see what he **says** he predicted. Does that not look like a lie to you? He ranks hurricanes based on an "Accumulative Hurricane Index", something he invented and doesn't disclose how the rankings work. I could do really great at hurricane forecasting if you let me use my own ranking scale.

This also has nothing to do with "cyber bullying". It has to do with you learning to be skeptical. The internet is filled with truth and fiction and you'd better learn to separate the two if you hope to be a scientist. As for the rest of your diatribe, you also need to learn some self-control.


I find it cute how our society is built so that brutal honesty and constructive criticism is perceived as bullying.

Being wrong sucks, but hey, we're supposed to learn from that. And by that I mean not cling to archaic opinions when we've clearly been proven wrong.
Quoting 289. Skyepony:


Biggest solar storm impact of this solar cycle going on. Some sites have said as low as middle CONUS. Space weather puts it here...



Is that map for the peak of the auroras?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wait who is beating who up?
Apparently STS is going to administer the beat down of our lives to each and every one of us, or at least that's the prediction. I wonder if it involves leather and chains? :-)
but i like that post :(
who broke the blog?

i typed this to gro and it didn't show up but i can see it when i go to modify

when these occur do u think they mess with electricity/electrical?
WHY WATERWITCH WHY
Okay, seems that it's Gro's post #304 that's being quoted that's causing the italicizing.

Can you guys delete it if you've quoted it?

Thanks!
Quoting 332. sar2401:

Apparently STS is going to administer the beat down of our lives to each and every one of us, or at least that's the prediction. I wonder if it involves leather and chains? :-)


Until we admit he was right about el nino
Quoting 332. sar2401:
Apparently STS is going to administer the beat down of our lives to each and every one of us, or at least that's the prediction. I wonder if it involves leather and chains? :-)


What? What the heck is going on.
Quoting 339. StormTrackerScott:



What? What the heck is going on.


You're gonna beat us all up!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Sar you are gonna get beat up, just accept it.

You bully.
I'm sorry.

How about if I only bully a select few then, just to keep my skills up?

I'm trying to think what the response would have been to that kind of message out behind the gym. I'll bet it would involve an actual beating, not just a cyber equivalent.

I know I come from a different era, but I expect to be corrected - usually, multiple times - if something I post is not correct. It's all part of having a point of view and putting yourself out there. If someone can't deal with logical outcomes, it might be best if they spent more time in the sun. At least they'll get some vitamin D from that.
More thoughts on the CA pipeline idea. You would need to use the Great Lakes as a source. I would go with Duluth, MN for the highest starting altitude. You don't need to go all the way to CA. The end point would be Estes Park, CO around 8,000 feet. From there you would tunnel under the divide and dump the water In shadow mountain or Granby reservoir. At that point the Colorado takes the water to CA with storage available in Meade and Powell.

Keystone XL is estimated at 5 to 7 billion for 2,000 miles of 36" pipeline. This has way more pumping and a huge tunnel. Let's call it 10 billion per 36" line. So ten of those for $100 billion. Figure another 50 billion to upgrade CA's ability to move water from the Colorado system throughout CA. That a lot of money but we do spend $700 billion annually on defense. If it was between this and forcing half the population of CA to move it would be worth the money.

Of course the Great Lakes states would go to war to prevent this so it's never going to happen. It does not seem impossible at a first look however.
Look, tigger's a kid. His post was out of line, but he's obviously upset about something, so perhaps just cutting him some slack?

I agree with the 'direct approach', but learning to deliver it nicely, and learning to accept it when it's directed at you comes with age and maturity, I think.

He'll come around, hopefully. He's got a lot of enthusiasm for weather. But learning to get along with blog 'personalities' comes with the territory.
Quoting 337. LAbonbon:

Okay, seems that it's Gro's post #304 that's being quoted that's causing the italicizing.

Can you guys delete it if you've quoted it?

Thanks!




HA! It wasn't me after all! Of course i get blamed for it. -_-
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
You can't F12 and console mode on this website? what the heck...
Works for me. "View page source" in Chrome also works. Of course, I also never saw any unusual italics,. so maybe I have weird computer.
Quoting 335. WaterWitch11:

who broke the blog?

i typed this to gro and it didn't show up but i can see it when i go to modify

when these occur do u think they mess with electricity/electrical?

It's something in Gro's original post, it seems. Can you delete your post #333? That should work...**crossing fingers**
Quoting 344. TimTheWxMan:





HA! It wasn't me after all! Of course i get blamed for it. -_-

No way to tell, really...if you deleted it, and WaterWitch posted it, her post may have 'masked' your correction.

But, honestly, I'm kind of guessing here...but we'll know once she deletes.

And really...if it is the aurora video post, it's Gro's fault :D
WaterWitch. Please delete me. Now you know why Mrs. Grothar won't let me near the remote.
Quoting 335. WaterWitch11:

who broke the blog?

i typed this to gro and it didn't show up but i can see it when i go to modify

when these occur do u think they mess with electricity/electrical?



I just fixed it and now it's broke again! Hocus pocus italics! :/
Quoting 348. LAbonbon:


No way to tell, really...if you deleted it, and WaterWitch posted it, her posted may have 'masked' your correction.

But, honestly, I'm kind of guessing here...but we'll know once she deletes.

And really...if it is the aurora video post, it's Gro's fault :D


I think I'll go to bed now :)
Quoting ndscott50:
More thoughts on the CA pipeline idea. You would need to use the Great Lakes as a source. I would go with Duluth, MN for the highest starting altitude. You don't need to go all the way to CA. The end point would be Estes Park, CO around 8,000 feet. From there you would tunnel under the divide and dump the water In shadow mountain or Granby reservoir. At that point the Colorado takes the water to CA with storage available in Meade and Powell.

Keystone XL is estimated at 5 to 7 billion for 2,000 miles of 36" pipeline. This has way more pumping and a huge tunnel. Let's call it 10 billion per 36" line. So ten of those for $100 billion. Figure another 50 billion to upgrade CA's ability to move water from the Colorado system throughout CA. That a lot of money but we do spend $700 billion annually on defense. If it was between this and forcing half the population of CA to move it would be worth the money.

Of course the Great Lakes states would go to war to prevent this so it's never going to happen. It does not seem impossible at a first look however.
I think you've overlooked some new reservoirs that would be needed. You've also overlooked the flood control reasons some of these dams were built to begin with. Every cubic foot of water has a purchase price as well. Regardless, you're right about trying to hijack water from other states. I'd rather pay a penny a gallon for desal water than go through another civil war.

Quoting 343. LAbonbon:

Look, tigger's a kid. His post was out of line, but he's obviously upset about something, so perhaps just cutting him some slack?

I agree with the 'direct approach', but learning to deliver it nicely, and learning to accept it when it's directed at you comes with age and maturity, I think.

He'll come around, hopefully. He's got a lot of enthusiasm for weather. But learning to get along with blog 'personalities' comes with the territory.
I've never been good at delivering ANYTHING in a non-blunt manner.
Maybe some storms for my area Thursday afternoon. Storm motion should be SE with storms firing across N FL and sliding across E C FL late in the day.



Storm motion SE


Sign of a weak surface low too which could make some storms go severe.
Whoa...Tim is a wizard, and WaterWitch really IS a witch!

Quoting 353. KoritheMan:


I've never been good at delivering ANYTHING in a non-blunt manner.


Kori, you are the epitome of the direct approach :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You need to chill. You have not been bullied on this blog, and it's certainly not because of your age. I joined when I was 13, and so have many others, and they've been welcomed without obstruction. The main issue that I have pointed out, and that others have pointed out, is that you ask the same questions every day and post the same comments every day. It gets annoying. You're welcome to leave if you so wish, but don't blame it on bullying, because you have not been. All sar did was offer constructive criticism; he even said in his post that you were a smart kid.

You're on a public forum. Not everybody is going to like you; not everybody is going to agree with what you write. And that's fine. My constructive criticism for tonight would be to develop tougher skin.
Believe it or not, TA, you're exactly the guy I was thinking about when a picture of a 13 year old kid came to mind. :-)I think I've said this before but I still remember the day I found out you were 13. I was really kind of shocked, since you had the vocabulary and writing style of a well educated adult. There are other young people who have come on here and what they wrote gave no indication of their age. Others I can tell after the first post. I've done everything I can to encourage young people here but, as you say, part of being on the net is growing a thicker skin.
Quoting 355. StormTrackerScott:

Maybe some storms for my area Thursday afternoon. Storm motion should be SE with storms firing across N FL and sliding across E C FL late in the day.





Look at Mississippi. See the blue going southwest? I thought that was rather interesting.

Quoting 354. TimTheWxMan:




SST comparisons, as much as they're appreciated, don't need to be posted every day. They only change a little on a daily basis. Perhaps... once a week, like every friday or something. It takes patience when it comes to tropical weather. Much of it is a waiting game (i guess you can say the same with severe weather). Besides, as i said last night, SST's aren't the only factor in tropical storm development. You need low upper-level shear, you need warm, moist, rising air, a positive MJO helps (as we saw with 4 tropical cyclones at once) as well as warm SST's.
Sea surface temperatures are going to be high enough to support tropical cyclogenesis almost basinwide (exempting the really high latitudes near the Azores or something) during August or September anyway, so I kind of feel below average SST anomalies during a -AMO aren't the deciding factor.
Quoting 358. TimTheWxMan:



Look at Mississippi. See the blue going southwest? I thought that was rather interesting.


Backdoor cold front.


Quoting 356. LAbonbon:

Whoa...Tim is a wizard, and WaterWitch really IS a witch!


Kori, you are the epitome of the direct approach :)

hahaha, I've resigned to myself to eventually getting punched in the face. It hasn't happened yet, but if I ever post a picture of myself on the blog with a black eye and a bloody nose, it shouldn't come as a surprise to any of you. :)
Quoting 359. KoritheMan:


Sea surface temperatures are going to be high enough to support tropical cyclogenesis almost basinwide (exempting the really high latitudes near the Azores or something) during August or September anyway, so I kind of feel below average SST anomalies during a -AMO aren't the deciding factor.




In that case, i may have to up my hurricane predictions a tad now that the -AMO may have little effect on the season.
Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



Backdoor cold front.





Ah. Interestingly enough i saw winds coming out of the north-northeast earlier today in St. Louis.
Quoting 296. tiggerhurricanes2001:

you can not leave because of some silly arguing. IF YOU WANT TO POST THE ANYTHING ABOUT THE WEATHER everyday its your right and those bugged by it can choose to not view it, right?

i have had people make me cry on this blog BUT there are some here that I adore and come hurricane season you will see that and learn even more.

sorry couldn't figure out how it do a new email and only have the reply option

Quoting 363. TimTheWxMan:




In that case, i may have to up my hurricane predictions a tad now that the -AMO may have little effect on the season.
Let's see if this sounds better: tropical cyclones gravitate toward areas of ANOMALOUS heat; if SSTs are warmer than average, cyclone activity will be greater. But cyclones will develop regardless, as they did during the last -AMO.

Better?
Quoting 356. LAbonbon:

Whoa...Tim is a wizard, and WaterWitch really IS a witch!


Kori, you are the epitome of the direct approach :)




WaterWitch and I both graduated from Hogwarts. :O)
Quoting 367. KoritheMan:


Let's see if this sounds better: tropical cyclones gravitate toward areas of ANOMALOUS heat; if SSTs are warmer than average, cyclone activity will be greater. But cyclones will develop regardless, as they did during the last -AMO.

Better?




Makes sense. Now that I finally hit 1000 comments, nighty night folks!
so there was some drama and I missed it

Quoting 370. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so there was some drama and I missed it
I didn't start it this time! :)
Gro and Tim have the right idea...I'm headed to bed.

Good night, all
Quoting KoritheMan:

hahaha, I've resigned to myself to eventually getting punched in the face. It hasn't happened yet, but if I ever post a picture of myself on the blog with a black eye and a bloody nose, it shouldn't come as a surprise to any of you. :)
LOL. Wait until you get in the Air Force. Someone's going to slug you for sure. Just make sure you run right to the CO's office and turn everyone in for bullying. That will make you the most popular guy on base. :-)
Quoting 225. Tropicsweatherpr:

I don't know if this GWO private firm is good on predicting hurricane seasons but they are for an active season at 14/8/3.Reading thru the GWO press release I don't see any detailed reasons about why they are for an active season. The only thing I found is the following.:

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural %u201CClimate Pulse Enhancement Cycle%u201D that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.


Lol really :-) Would be great!!
Quoting LAbonbon:
Gro and Tim have the right idea...I'm headed to bed.

Good night, all
GN, all y'all.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so there was some drama and I missed it
Nah. Just a slight disturbance in the force. It wouldn't even qualify as a tropical depression of drama. :-)
Quoting 371. KoritheMan:


I didn't start it this time! :)

I know just being yer angelic self
I stopped by the blog to see if there were any updates on Nathan. I can honestly say that I laughed out loud when reading reading through the night's events. This storm is a well-organized little bugger.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/south-pacif ic/2015/tropical-cyclone-Nathan?map=sat

Quoting 377. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I know just being yer angelic self
*floats away on a cloud playing a harp*
I am anxiously awaiting the AUrora cone of dazzling lights to come my way. It is actually still light out, but for the first time in a long time it is very clear out! Maybe, just maybe, I will see them in all their glory tonight.
Please tell me you have a Camera....
Good news and bad news. I have a camera but I can't control the shutter speed and apparently you need a long exposure to capture them.

Getting a high quality camera is on my bucket list. But I can't do that until I sell my MIami house and buy a house up here...

I will try though.

Quoting 382. Dakster:

Good news and bad news. I have a camera but I can't control the shutter speed and apparently you need a long exposure to capture them.

Getting a high quality camera is on my bucket list. But I can't do that until I sell my MIami house and buy a house up here...

I will try though.
You don't have a house in Alaska? Where do you stay?
384. vis0

Quoting 227. sar2401:

Whoops. A little slip of the calculator button there. Even 9600 served would still mean that everyone drew down their allotment per day and no one used over the allotment. Without storage, that's extremely unlikely. And yes, the right of way would be down to "only" about a mile now.
When it comes to physics, and trying to transport water and all the math that goes with that is amazing and i admire those that can figure out these equations.
But there is no method to move water that is cheaper the further you move it. (closest idea i submitted to a science project in the  1970s, won an award it used the captured/compressed steam within the pipes themselves to transport the water over "up-sloping" areas at large collecting points in the pipe system...weird thing was i also came in 2nd via a water transport device idea THEN i wrote to transport the water via its molecular state like people are transported in TV's Star Trek today one would say quantum mechanics...remember this was for 6 th grade...5th place was a sling shot and water in plastic containers...that kid became an engineer, me? a housekeeper/cameraman)

There are things that do that (cheaper the further you move it.) by using inclines & wheels. Simple example those loading ramps with many wheels used to move McDonald's trucks cargo into McDonald's restaurant storage basements. You place the box on top and in seconds the box is speeding at 10 mph just before it hits the old lady trying to squeeze between the gap from on incline to the other.  Imagine how many people would be needed to move those boxes if by hand, like a water bucket line leading to a fire trying to be extinguished. That ramp with many wheels that boxes slide on, being inclined is an energy saving tool.
Or creating a gravity free area so water floats then invent a million droplet catcher.
You're trying to have water act like a bird that glides to save its energy and water does not behave in that manner, unless you build the ramp to catch the water just as it leaves the cloud.

As sar2401 said "who'll pays for the shipping & handling" (ok, he never said that but the quote fits his personality). And from where do we steal i mean "borrow?", okay take the water without getting those people angry cause they cannot water their Petunias ..oops sorry sar24☼1,  touched on a sore point...
Let 's think  as if we were in a cartoon... i can see it now


You have to build at least 3 humongous  miles long & MANY FEET DEEP reservoirs on wheels...how many wheels?
Each reservoir in specific areas of the USofA far enough from each other to guarantee it'll "catch" rain when the other 2 reservoirs on wheels areas are going through droughts. If it rains a bit more to the east one needs tons of power (build a steam engine that uses its own water to power the move) to move those hundreds of wheels with each having independent suspensions holding billions of gallons of water AND Don't put on the brakes too fast (50miles to a full stop from top speed of 2mph?,  or the water will swish and you'll loose a few million gallons. You finally get to where the storm is...WAS...its now raining where the giant reservoir on wheels was before it was moved towards the East, DOH!

In time man will create an ml-d, place it over SE Nebraska and then you'll have rain.  GUARANTEED never to have any area of the USofA go through a drought longer than 2 yrs.  Some (many?) don't like that (the m-ld) BUT REMEMBER THE ml-d DOES NOT force nature it asks and NATURE decides from whence the wxtrend comes from and where it goes, all the ml-d does is ask that its deposited at certain coordinates. Also the ml-d uses state of the art technology to move water...these technologies are tested & proven to work for millions of years (go UL, place a stamp on that) they are  wind & clouds. Clouds are  cheap, reliable (when understanding how to use the ml-d) clean up after themselves, here that man!  Clouds can create interesting designs in the sky on boring days...LOOK that cloud looks like TAZ  and since Nature still is in charge  as to the mixing of the "ingredients", meteorologists don't loose their jobs, they'll have the 25 day natural forecast and the 25 day ml-d enhanced forecasts , if you pay for the membership you get the 50 day forecasts & a free T-shirt that has a Sun, clouds, lightning, hail, snow and it reads "i knew that was going to happen...weather") . 
Remember i posted several ethical rules to follow when someone else discovers their version of the ml-d. Basic rules includes an 8 hour ON limit (only can be raised to 12 hrs if a drought is longer than 4 yrs is present and has to go through several governments panel (had to add bureaucracy somewhere...SIT DOWN Representatives & Senators ...that's embarrassing). Government subsidizes poor areas but only for half the time as paid for areas. Farm areas get priority during NATURAL droughts. Its was a 70 page or ethical rules  some might still find it on the net somewhere was written from 1997-1999 part of my "Sciencious" theories.

It reads as crazy now but throughout history man has learned how to control areas of Earth through science  or physical means, if its done with respect to the planet, in the end its done for good...the trick is the learning curve.

Back TO WEATHER WATCHING
Quoting 382. Dakster:

Good news and bad news. I have a camera but I can't control the shutter speed and apparently you need a long exposure to capture them.

Getting a high quality camera is on my bucket list. But I can't do that until I sell my MIami house and buy a house up here...

I will try though.


Know what you mean, I am no better with my digital, I can barely use it on regular mode....
Quoting Dakster:
Good news and bad news. I have a camera but I can't control the shutter speed and apparently you need a long exposure to capture them.

Getting a high quality camera is on my bucket list. But I can't do that until I sell my MIami house and buy a house up here...

I will try though.
You do need a time exposure to catch an aurora unless it's really, really bright. Do you have a cell phone with a camera? Some of those take pretty good pictures now. That being said, it doesn't look good for you to see the aurora. It looks like the radiation is starting to decay, and the best hope for seeing it would be up in Fairbanks. You never know though. Trying to predict auroras is worse than trying to predict hurricanes. I just went outside to take a look and there's nothing unusual in the sky here. It's still 68 after a high of 89 and the crickets are starting to cricket, which is pretty unusual for mid-March.
Good Night Peeps.....
Thanks Sar - I am beginning to figure out it may not circle back around to me... drat...

I have a nice 8 Megapixel camera that takes nice photos at the ready. I just don't have the tripod and the digital Nikon that can you set correctly.

I've only seen the "glow" I haven't seen all the dancing lights, which is one of the things on my bucket list. Feb/Mar are the best months, but this year it has stunk. Everytime the lights are out, so were the clouds.
Quoting vis0:

When it comes to physics, and trying to transport water and all the math that goes with that is amazing and i admire those that can figure out these equations.
But there is no method to move water that is cheaper the further you move it. (closest idea i submitted to a science project in the  1970s, won an award it used the captured/compressed steam within the pipes themselves to transport the water over "up-sloping" areas at large collecting points in the pipe system...weird thing was i also came in 2nd via a water transport device idea THEN i wrote to transport the water via its molecular state like people are transported in TV's Star Trek today one would say quantum mechanics...remember this was for 6 th grade...5th place was a sling shot and water in plastic containers...that kid became an engineer, me? a housekeeper/cameraman)

There are things that do that (cheaper the further you move it.) by using inclines & wheels. Simple example those loading ramps with many wheels used to move McDonald's trucks cargo into McDonald's restaurant storage basements. You place the box on top and in seconds the box is speeding at 10 mph just before it hits the old lady trying to squeeze between the gap from on incline to the other.  Imagine how many people would be needed to move those boxes if by hand, like a water bucket line leading to a fire trying to be extinguished. That ramp with many wheels that boxes slide on, being inclined is an energy saving tool.
Or creating a gravity free area so water floats then invent a million droplet catcher.
You're trying to have water act like a bird that glides to save its energy and water does not behave in that manner, unless you build the ramp to catch the water just as it leaves the cloud.

As sar2401 said "who'll pays for the shipping & handling" (ok, he never said that but the quote fits his personality). And from where do we steal i mean "borrow?", okay take the water without getting those people angry cause they cannot water their Petunias ..oops sorry sar24☼1,  touched on a sore point...
Let 's think  as if we were in a cartoon... i can see it now


You have to build at least 3 humongous  miles long & MANY FEET DEEP reservoirs on wheels...how many wheels?
Each reservoir in specific areas of the USofA far enough from each other to guarantee it'll "catch" rain when the other 2 reservoirs on wheels areas are going through droughts. If it rains a bit more to the east one needs tons of power (build a steam engine that uses its own water to power the move) to move those hundreds of wheels with each having independent suspensions holding billions of gallons of water AND Don't put on the brakes too fast (50miles to a full stop from top speed of 2mph?,  or the water will swish and you'll loose a few million gallons. You finally get to where the storm is...WAS...its now raining where the giant reservoir on wheels was before it was moved towards the East, DOH!

In time man will create an ml-d, place it over SE Nebraska and then you'll have rain.  GUARANTEED never to have any area of the USofA go through a drought longer than 2 yrs.  Some (many?) don't like that (the m-ld) BUT REMEMBER THE ml-d DOES NOT force nature it asks and NATURE decides from whence the wxtrend comes from and where it goes, all the ml-d does is ask that its deposited at certain coordinates. Also the ml-d uses state of the art technology to move water...these technologies are tested & proven to work for millions of years (go UL, place a stamp on that) they are  wind & clouds. Clouds are  cheap, reliable (when understanding how to use the ml-d) clean up after themselves, here that man!  Clouds can create interesting designs in the sky on boring days...LOOK that cloud looks like TAZ  and since Nature still is in charge  as to the mixing of the "ingredients", meteorologists don't loose their jobs, they'll have the 25 day natural forecast and the 25 day ml-d enhanced forecasts , if you pay for the membership you get the 50 day forecasts & a free T-shirt that has a Sun, clouds, lightning, hail, snow and it reads "i knew that was going to happen...weather") . 
Remember i posted several ethical rules to follow when someone else discovers their version of the ml-d. Basic rules includes an 8 hour ON limit (only can be raised to 12 hrs if a drought is longer than 4 yrs is present and has to go through several governments panel (had to add bureaucracy somewhere...SIT DOWN Representatives & Senators ...that's embarrassing). Government subsidizes poor areas but only for half the time as paid for areas. Farm areas get priority during NATURAL droughts. Its was a 70 page or ethical rules  some might still find it on the net somewhere was written from 1997-1999 part of my "Sciencious" theories.

It reads as crazy now but throughout history man has learned how to control areas of Earth through science  or physical means, if its done with respect to the planet, in the end its done for good...the trick is the learning curve.

Back TO WEATHER WATCHING
Vis, you come up with some of the strangest but most inventive ideas I've ever seen. Giant reservoirs being moved around the country on trains? Sounds kind of expensive and, you're right, trying to stop that train once it got moving would be a real challenge. If we're going to involve trains, why not just fill up the millions of tank cars we already have and move it that way? Either way, you have to steal someone's water, and they won't like it. It probably wouldn't be all that hard to derail something like your reservoir train, and it could be a heck of a mess to clean up. Makes some oil in a river look easy by comparison. I still come back to desalination as the only reliable answer. We already understand the technology, and starting a WPA of desal plants would probably improve the technology a lot faster than building one or two plants at a time. You could even have a bunch of plants on barges, ready to go to areas of drought or natural disasters. Imagine if we had three or four of these kind of plants anchored off Sao Paulo now. They need a self contained power supply though. That will be a little tricky. :-)
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps.....
GN, Ped.
Quoting 383. KoritheMan:


You don't have a house in Alaska? Where do you stay?



I am renting a house - I want to OWN one. Can't do that until my Miami one sells.I also can't do large purchases right now as I am trying to keep the bills down as much as possible.
Quoting Dakster:
Thanks Sar - I am beginning to figure out it may not circle back around to me... drat...

I have a nice 8 Megapixel camera that takes nice photos at the ready. I just don't have the tripod and the digital Nikon that can you set correctly.

I've only seen the "glow" I haven't seen all the dancing lights, which is one of the things on my bucket list. Feb/Mar are the best months, but this year it has stunk. Everytime the lights are out, so were the clouds.
Yeah, it's not looking good for either of us. It's like those predicted snow storms here that never develop. My Samsung S4 Mini has a 5 megapixel camera that takes much better pictures than my 6.6 MP Kodak. I guess I bought that one a long time ago, but it was top of the line for digital cameras then. Geez, that must be something like 15 years ago now. I made a tabletop tripod for my phone out of a cheap car mount. It works great if you're near something like a picnic table. I think I could probably use pipe clamps to attach it to the big tripod. I've just been too lazy to try. :-)
I could set it up on something. But without a long exposure setting, it doesn't matter. I have a tripod for *gasp* film cameras. I still have a good 35MM camera somewhere - problem is the film and developing it now. I used to do my own, but I can't even get the chemicals anymore. And yes, I used to develop COLOR film and process COLOR prints at home in my own darkroom. I learned B&W with my great uncle as his shop.

Yeah, my Sony Camera as top of the line when I got it too... But that was in 2008... An eternity. I only have an iPhone4 and it takes ok to mediocre pictures. I know, time for a new phone... But the house thing...

On Edit: Temp is dropping FAST tonight... 11 Degrees in one hour or so... And several hours almost 20 degrees.
From here the Aurora is bright enough tonight to be seen through the total cloud cover ..... so it's pretty bright, just all fuzzed out by the clouds.We're not expecting the clouds to clear tonight so that's about 'it'.We get aurora most nights .... visible when it's clear (used to be clear most nights too !! damned 'Climate Change!) .... was clearer last night, so I had my share yesterday I guess.Dakster ..... It's very difficult to get decent photos even with expensive gear ..... so watch hard and memorize ..... i've been watching them for forty odd years and they still capture me when they're dancing and colour changing ..... magic !!
Quoting 394. GreatSlaveLake:

From here the Aurora is bright enough tonight to be seen through the total cloud cover ..... so it's pretty bright, just all fuzzed out by the clouds.We're not expecting the clouds to clear tonight so that's about 'it'.We get aurora most nights .... visible when it's clear (used to be clear most nights too !! damned 'Climate Change!) .... was clearer last night, so I had my share yesterday I guess.Dakster ..... It's very difficult to get decent photos even with expensive gear ..... so watch hard and memorize ..... i've been watching them for forty odd years and they still capture me when they're dancing and colour changing ..... magic !!


Thanks!!!!

My bucket list is to one day see Yellowknife... I met some people from there when I was at Liard Hot Springs. I am assuming you live in one of the cities around the "Great Slave Lake"?
396. vis0

Quoting 389. sar2401:

Vis, you come up with some of the strangest but most inventive ideas I've ever seen. Giant reservoirs being moved around the country on trains? Sounds kind of expensive and, you're right, trying to stop that train once it got moving would be a real challenge. If we're going to involve trains, why not just fill up the millions of tank cars we already have and move it that way? Either way, you have to steal someone's water, and they won't like it. It probably wouldn't be all that hard to derail something like your reservoir train, and it could be a heck of a mess to clean up. Makes some oil in a river look easy by comparison. I still come back to desalination as the only reliable answer. We already understand the technology, and starting a WPA of desal plants would probably improve the technology a lot faster than building one or two plants at a time. You could even have a bunch of plants on barges, ready to go to areas of drought or natural disasters. Imagine if we had three or four of these kind of plants anchored off Sao Paulo now. They need a self contained power supply though. That will be a little tricky. :-)
Oh fully agree its Desalination plants for now & near future is the way to go.  i posted some months ago that as the Navy? has, some public D-plants should be built to ride oceans so when natural disaters strike land based D-plants emergency needs can be met. Yet in time what i call an ml-d will be the most efficient, least polluting way to bring rain to areas specially in areas where D-plants cannot work (country's with many mountains or high up off the ocean where land cannot be excavated at a slow incline angle to meet the requirements of piping D-plant water to cities ). i know the ml-d to most is fiction, lets hope clues i sent scientists are stuidied and one day they'll figure it out. i still wonder why not use the same ocean water to power the barge D-plants as in using steam to power the process to lower long term costs. Not as much water will be processed but for a lower price poorer countries can get some water instead of nothing.

QUESTION sar2401 is it possible to have some D-plats created to run on steam? NOT each D-plants with 2 power sources as that means 2 times the pipes, money, delays in building, the space needed for D-plants BUT for every D-plant 3 barges, 1 D-plant barge to use ONLY steam power.
Getting mixed feelings for this..

Possible snowstorm to strike northeast while transitioning into Spring.
Still days away and model runs to agree on this.

Spring equinox: At 22:45 UTC on March 20. 6:45 PM EDT, 5 PM CDT and 3 PM PDT

Friday into Saturday
398. vis0

Quoting 393. Dakster:

I could set it up on something. But without a long exposure setting, it doesn't matter. I have a tripod for *gasp* film cameras. I still have a good 35MM camera somewhere - problem is the film and developing it now. I used to do my own, but I can't even get the chemicals anymore. And yes, I used to develop COLOR film and process COLOR prints at home in my own darkroom. I learned B&W with my great uncle as his shop.

Yeah, my Sony Camera as top of the line when I got it too... But that was in 2008... An eternity. I only have an iPhone4 and it takes ok to mediocre pictures. I know, time for a new phone... But the house thing...

On Edit: Temp is dropping FAST tonight... 11 Degrees in one hour or so... And several hours almost 20 degrees.
My darkroom was my closet (2.5 feet by 5 feet. Had Pentax k1000 (still do), teacher lent me her Hassblad and another i can't remember (Cannon?) i brought at a flea market (all 1970s or before & manual). Later bought a Cannon & another Cannon EOS650 you see  it in this image, NO Grothar thats not my Romper Room mirror ...that ones stored away : - P [taken by a no name 2 MP digital camera i saved from being thrown away at a TV studio] (hope to buy the latest EOS HD cannon soon) and have 2 Hero(s) , 1  i tinker with to see if i can have it reach Ektachrome quality 18 to 20 MP)

Bought a flimsy Omega c700 series (hated it but it was all i could afford after buying my fav enlarger a Besler projection to create photographs of any size from my film.

After using a dark room bag (even though all lights were out even turned off the red light i was very cautious) to place films onto spools into developing tanks (metal then plastic).

Took all the dry equipment out of that closet then pulled into the closet a thin table with wheels that had on it tongs, D76, Dektoyl, fixer (same) & water trays and had a 30 gal plastic drum elevated that touched the ceiling (also salvaged & cleaned that drum from a construction site) for clean "running" water that came from the bathroom 12 feet away with another small hose in case the tank overflowed when filling it went back to the bathtub.

Always had to worry that the hot enlarger lights did not touch my polyester (hated poly) clothing and moved those disco like polyester shirts onto the bed.
would create 12 feet by 7 feet enlargements on my wall at first bought large developing paper VERY EXPENSIVE then just bought the 500 pack 6.5 by 11 and joined then as 1 big 12 foot by 7 foot image first on the wall then figuring out how to create each section individually then join then later ah the fun teen Yeats.

(bought all my things from Olden on 32nd st NYc later Adomrama, NYC (now B&H, though stopped the darkroom in 1985?)

WEATHER:: zip 10016, Rose Hill, NYC - getting a few more natural/regular gusts 10-15mphs. Not as many ml-d accentuated gusts as mentioned in a comment a page or so back.

BTW mirror is made of ultra strong reflective polymer as to not crack when i look into it, though not longer than 20 secs.
399. 882MB
Absolutely something else, here we have Tropical cyclone Nathan was supposed to make landfall as category 1, now new advisory has it making landfall category 3. It just keeps on climbing, not for nothing, but I had my doubts so did our buddy, "Tropicsweatherpr", we had a conversation about this earlier today. Just got back and I cant believe Nathan its really putting it together. Perfect upper level outflow, beautiful outflow on every quadrant, not so much on the east side but its getting its act together, looking like a bird, with its spreading feathers, after struggling due to Pam's outflow. Now we have decent convection around what if am not blind appears to be an eye. What a season seriously. Incredible this part of the world needs a BREAK!!





At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Three (977 hPa) located at 15.0S 149.0E or 405 kilometers east northeast of Cairns and 405 kilometers east of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is now beginning to adopt more of a westwards track and should continue to intensify as it approaches the north Queensland coast. At this stage, severe tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to cross the north Queensland coast between Cape Melville and Port Douglas during Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h currently extend out to approximately 150 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Innisfail on Thursday night before possibly extending north to Lockhart River and over adjacent inland areas from the coast, including Palmerville and Laura on Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE and VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to develop near the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cairns overnight Thursday or during Friday morning, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Innisfail are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 15.1S 148.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 15.3S 147.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3) east of Cooktown
48 HRS 15.2S 143.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 14.3S 139.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
===========================
Severe tropical cyclone Nathan has significantly developed today with the system now more symmetric in appearance and in recent satellite imagery a ragged eye has emerged. The development overnight and during today has been attributed to the noticeably lower shear across the system, which is evident on the recent satellite imagery and also depicted by a zone of less than 10 knot shear on the CIMMS vertical wind shear product.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a DG surround and no adjustment, giving a DT of 4.5. MET and PAT were both 4.5. FT based on a 3-hour averaged DT. The location of the center is rated as good based on the Willis Island radar and the emerging eye on the satellite imagery.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan was moving in a general southwestwards direction overnight, but has adopted more of a westwards track today as it begins to be steered by a mid-level ridge extending across central Australia. Confidence in the system holding this westwards track into the north Queensland coast is fairly high considering the strength of the mid-level ridge and the fact that most of the computer model guidance have tropical cyclone Nathan crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville and Port Douglas during Friday morning. After crossing the coast, tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a westwards direction and possibly re-emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria by Saturday.

Given the favorable environment for further development into the north Queensland coast it is possible that a period of rapid intensification could occur and that the system could reach category 4 intensity prior to landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for areas from Cape Melville to Innisfail

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for areas from Lockhart River to Cape Melville, extending inland to Laura and Palmerville


But already ahead.
Quoting 338. VAbeachhurricanes:



Until we admit he was right about el nino
eventually he will be right..haha
Here a good morning LOL from Iceland :-)

Calm Weather Warning Issued
Iceland Review, By Páll Stefánsson, March 17, 2015 16:59Updated: March 17, 2015 17:00
The search and rescue team, Þorbjörn, in the town of Grindavík, near Keflavík International Airport, issued a warning yesterday evening when today’s forecast for calm weather with almost no wind was issued, conditions which have been very rare this winter, pressan.is reports.
The statement warned people of the risk of falling after they have been used to leaning into the wind in order to not fall over, now that the wind has disappeared. It also recommended that people use the opportunity of warmer temperatures to wash their cold weather clothes.

Quite encouraging news amid all the destruction from Port Vila (Vanuatu) and other places in a recent report from "Humans of Vanuatu", concerning the massive efforts in relief work. Very worth reading!
More details on their facebook site.

Latest overview from Reuters:
Food concerns mount in Vanuatu after monster cyclone
Source: Reuters - Wed, 18 Mar 2015 09:35 GMT, Author: Reuters
Major warming continung across the eastern Pacific

Yes, definitely some positive news in barbamz's post #404. It's very concerning, though, is that there have been no 'boots on the ground' yet in the Shepherd Islands (small islands north of Efate, where the capital city of Port Vila is). As the Humans of Vanuatu facebook update mentioned, aerial footage of some villages show not a single intact structure.

From Reuters this morning, there is this video; it doesn't cover the Sheperds, but it does include aerial footage of Tanna, south of Efate:

Help yet to reach Vanuatu islands
Forecast from Weatherbell. You know its gonna be a slow Hurricane Season if even JB says so. However the glaring risk to me as is the case with JB is the extremely warm Gulf Of Mexico this could pose a problem for the US. My thinking is even despite a possible Major El-Nino I think the Gulf Coast is at a higher risk than ever for a Major Hurricane forming in the Gulf and targeting the US.

HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

March 18 04:08 AM
March 15, 2015
Issued Premium March 18

Another low ACE year in the Main Development Region
In-close development biggest problem
Abnormally warm central Gulf of Mexico enhances threat of major U.S. hit


Forecast
Named Storms: 7-9
Hurricanes 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE 65-80% of normal


Commentary
The overall season seems fairly straightforward. It is highly likely that the ramped-up number of storms and ACE era is fading as the Gray/Klotzbach long -running AMO, which I think is the gold standard of the AMO index, is now heading to the negative phase. The NOAA measurement, while backing off is not quite there yet:

This is just incredible and goes to show just how hot it has been the past few weeks across FL and the Gulf.

Quoting 399. 882MB:

Absolutely something else, here we have Tropical cyclone Nathan was supposed to make landfall as category 1, now new advisory has it making landfall category 3. It just keeps on climbing, not for nothing, but I had my doubts so did our buddy, "Tropicsweatherpr", we had a conversation about this earlier today. Just got back and I cant believe Nathan its really putting it together. Perfect upper level outflow, beautiful outflow on every quadrant, not so much on the east side but its getting its act together, looking like a bird, with its spreading feathers, after struggling due to Pam's outflow. Now we have decent convection around what if am not blind appears to be an eye. What a season seriously. Incredible this part of the world needs a BREAK!!






There are recurve years and there are landfall years. This is a landfall year.
Dr. Kerry Emanuel on Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam and Climate Change at RealClimate :

In the past 16 months, two exceptionally intense tropical cyclones, Haiyan and Pam, have struck the western Pacific with devastating effect. Haiyan may have had the highest wind speeds of any tropical cyclone on record, but we will never know for sure because we do a poor job estimating the intensity of storms that are not surveyed by aircraft. (Currently, only North Atlantic tropical cyclones are routinely reconnoitered by aircraft, and only if they threaten populated regions within a few days.) Pam’s analyzed intensity puts it within 10 knots of the most intense storms on record in the South Pacific, but here again this is within the error bars of satellite-derived intensity estimates.

Pam’s high intensity and terrible impact on Vanuatu have invariably raised the question of the possible effect of global warming on its characteristics. For example, Vanuatu’s President Baldwin Lonsdale blamed the disaster partly on climate change. Just as predictable is the backlash to the effect that no single event can be attributed to climate variations of any kind. What can we say about the effects of climate change on South Pacific tropical cyclones?

Read more ...

Quoting 408. StormTrackerScott:

Forecast from Weatherbell. You know its gonna be a slow Hurricane Season if even JB says so. However the glaring risk to me as is the case with JB is the extremely warm Gulf Of Mexico this could pose a problem for the US. My thinking is even despite a possible Major El-Nino I think the Gulf Coast is at a higher risk than ever for a Major Hurricane forming in the Gulf and targeting the US.

HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

March 18 04:08 AM
March 15, 2015
Issued Premium March 18

Another low ACE year in the Main Development Region
In-close development biggest problem
Abnormally warm central Gulf of Mexico enhances threat of major U.S. hit


Forecast
Named Storms: 7-9
Hurricanes 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE 65-80% of normal


Commentary
The overall season seems fairly straightforward. It is highly likely that the ramped-up number of storms and ACE era is fading as the Gray/Klotzbach long -running AMO, which I think is the gold standard of the AMO index, is now heading to the negative phase. The NOAA measurement, while backing off is not quite there yet:

This is just incredible and goes to show just how hot it has been the past few weeks across FL and the Gulf.


I haven't seen anything to indicate that Joe Bastardi is credible at long-term forecasting. He's knowledgeable at teleconnections, but I feel like he tries to simplify the atmosphere too much. The predictive process isn't that easy.
There is several beautiful pics & gifs of the auroras last night in WUphotos this morning..
This is my fav from katy99780..
From NASA Earth Observatory:

The EOS Earth Image of the Day for March 18, 2015, Taming the Mississippi River


"Ten thousand River Commissions, with the mines of the world at their back, can not tame that lawless stream, can not curb it or confine it, can not say to it, Go here or Go there, and make it obey." —Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi

Twain’s pessimism has done little to deter the Mississippi River Commission. Since it was created in 1879, this division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has waged a prolonged campaign to control the river. Their weapons in the battle are levees, dams, spillways, dikes, weirs and other pieces of infrastructure. Their mission is to prevent the river from abandoning its current course.

Left alone, nature would probably send the Lower Mississippi River whipping back and forth across a 200-mile arc every few thousand years. Like “a pianist playing with one hand,” is how John McPhee described the river’s restlessness in a story for The New Yorker. With the main channel flowing unusually far to the east in its current configuration, the Mississippi is primed to snap back toward the west. Such a change would send most of the Mississippi’s flow into the Atchafalaya River, a distributory (the opposite of a tributary) of the Mississippi and Red Rivers. Such a change would pose an existential crisis for port cities like New Orleans and Baton Rouge, starving them of the water that has come to define them.


Read more (includes closeups of the control structures identifed in the main image)
Quoting 411. KoritheMan:


I haven't seen anything to indicate that Joe Bastardi is credible at long-term forecasting. He's knowledgeable at teleconnections, but I feel like he tries to simplify the atmosphere too much. The predictive process isn't that easy.



JB is actually really good at sniffing out upcoming weather patterns and he did call last years Hurricane Season and El-Nino. There are times however where there is a lot of hype from JB but in all honesty there is hype from everyone in the weather community at times including most if not all on this blog eventhough certain individuals want to call out others when sometimes they are the biggest offenders.

Quoting 414. StormTrackerScott:



JB is actually really good at sniffing out upcoming weather patterns and he did call last years Hurricane Season and El-Nino. There are times however where there is a lot of hype from JB but in all honesty there is hype from everyone in the weather community at times including most if not all on this blog eventhough certain individuals want to call out others when sometimes they are the biggest offenders.
Yeah, he's good for predictions out 10 to 14 days. I think he gets too much credit for longer-term (i.e. months long) predictions.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Forecast from Weatherbell. You know its gonna be a slow Hurricane Season if even JB says so. However the glaring risk to me as is the case with JB is the extremely warm Gulf Of Mexico this could pose a problem for the US. My thinking is even despite a possible Major El-Nino I think the Gulf Coast is at a higher risk than ever for a Major Hurricane forming in the Gulf and targeting the US.

HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

March 18 04:08 AM
March 15, 2015
Issued Premium March 18

Another low ACE year in the Main Development Region
In-close development biggest problem
Abnormally warm central Gulf of Mexico enhances threat of major U.S. hit


Forecast
Named Storms: 7-9
Hurricanes 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE 65-80% of normal


Commentary
The overall season seems fairly straightforward. It is highly likely that the ramped-up number of storms and ACE era is fading as the Gray/Klotzbach long -running AMO, which I think is the gold standard of the AMO index, is now heading to the negative phase. The NOAA measurement, while backing off is not quite there yet:

This is just incredible and goes to show just how hot it has been the past few weeks across FL and the Gulf.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Forecast from

Weatherbell. You know its gonna be a slow Hurricane Season if even JB says so. However the glaring risk to me as is the case with JB is the extremely warm Gulf Of Mexico this could pose a problem for the US. My thinking is even despite a possible Major El-Nino I think the Gulf Coast is at a higher risk than ever for a Major Hurricane forming in the Gulf and targeting the US.

HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

March 18 04:08 AM
March 15, 2015
Issued Premium March 18

Another low ACE year in the Main Development Region
In-close development biggest problem
Abnormally warm central Gulf of Mexico enhances threat of major U.S. hit


Forecast
Named Storms: 7-9
Hurricanes 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE 65-80% of normal


Commentary
The overall season seems fairly straightforward. It is highly likely that the ramped-up number of storms and ACE era is fading as the Gray/Klotzbach long -running AMO, which I think is the gold standard of the AMO index, is now heading to the negative phase. The NOAA measurement, while backing off is not quite there yet:

This is just incredible and goes to show just how hot it has been the past few weeks across FL and the Gulf.



Taking that as gospel is wrong. The accuracy of a hurricane forecast on March 18th is pretty much worthless. Dr. Masters who is an expert in the field always says to discount these early forecasts.
SOI is in a free fall right now. ESPI still rising now at .19

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 18 Mar 2015
Average for last 30 days -5.2
Average for last 90 days -7.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -22.2
According to this 2C anomalies are beginning to surface.

Quoting 416. jrweatherman:



Taking that as gospel is wrong. The accuracy of a hurricane forecast on March 18th is pretty much worthless. Dr. Masters who is an expert in the field always says to discount these early forecasts.


He's not saying that its accurate all he is saying is that the Gulf maybe at a higher risk and I agree. What do you want us to do just not post anything weather related as you seem to have something to say about everything. Maybe a blog with a blank screen would suit you better.
The cooler weather keeps getting pushed further out in time.

OMG... The snow. The whole city is shut down. There are 10ft drifts. I don't know where they will put it. Can't wait till my Floridian boyfriend sees this, he comes tomorrow. I haven't seen this kind of snow for over 12 years. I can only imagine what he will think...
Quoting 420. StormTrackerScott:

The cooler weather keeps getting pushed further out in time.



Similar delay here, but a bit cooler weather coming this weekend.
Quoting 421. Dragod66:

OMG... The snow. The whole city is shut down. There are 10ft drifts. I don't know where they will put it. Can't wait till my Floridian boyfriend sees this, he comes tomorrow. I haven't seen this kind of snow for over 12 years. I can only imagine what he will think...


Well he is going to be in shock as it has been near 90 for 2 weeks. So he would basically be coming from a Summer atmosphere to a atmosphere more Arctic in nature. Good snuggle weather I guess.
Quoting 421. Dragod66:

OMG... The snow. The whole city is shut down. There are 10ft drifts. I don't know where they will put it. Can't wait till my Floridian boyfriend sees this, he comes tomorrow. I haven't seen this kind of snow for over 12 years. I can only imagine what he will think...

You're in NS, right? Any chance of a photo or two?

And...not to be a downer...but will the airport be open?
Quoting 422. LAbonbon:


Similar delay here, but a bit cooler weather coming this weekend.


Everyday I look at the forecast the 70's get pushed back a day or 2. Also the rain chances keep getting pushed back as well. If we can get some daytime heating thunderstorms going tomorrow then that could change the overall look of the atmosphere here across the FL Penisula because once those daily thunderstorms get going then its hard to stop. The heat is there we just need cooler temps up at 500mb and deeper moisture thru the column of the atmosphere.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah, he's good for predictions out 10 to 14 days. I think he gets too much credit for longer-term (i.e. months long) predictions.
It would probably be more accurate to say "I think JB gives himself too much credit for long-term predictions." The truth is, while his short-term weather forecasting skills are decent enough, his climate prediction record is absolutely terrible, with one badly blown long-term forecast after another. All one needs to do is listen to any of his multi-year prognostications to realize just how far out of his depth he is when speaking of climate. For instance, this nugget from last July: "I do think the planet is going to be cooling the next 20 to 30 years due to natural processes." To make such an inane claim, a person would have to be almost totally ignorant of physics.
Quoting 418. StormTrackerScott:

According to this 2C anomalies are beginning to surface.




Looks west-based at the moment which could have interesting implications for hurricane season.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
According to this 2C anomalies are beginning to surface.



You do realise that this chart says 300M and not surface anomalies

Quoting Gearsts:


But already ahead.


2014 sub surface hot pool came earlier and was much stronger and it is obviously shown with top two
2015 sub surcafe hot pool came late much weaker than last year has two cold pools one E one W blocking the spread of the hot pool
Quoting 421. Dragod66:

OMG... The snow. The whole city is shut down. There are 10ft drifts. I don't know where they will put it. Can't wait till my Floridian boyfriend sees this, he comes tomorrow. I haven't seen this kind of snow for over 12 years. I can only imagine what he will think...

Stop stealing the snow, Troy. My seasonal total is 1.3", which is just about average...but I wanted more!
Well he is going to be in shock as it has been near 90 for 2 weeks. So he would basically be coming from a Summer atmosphere to a atmosphere more Arctic in nature. Good snuggle weather I guess.

Wow, yeah he is going to be in for a shock!

You're in NS, right? Any chance of a photo or two?

And...not to be a downer...but will the airport be open?


Yeah, I'll post a couple photos here in a minute! I also thought that the airport might be shut down. I told him there is a good chance he might get stuck in New Jersey for the night.
Quoting 426. Neapolitan:

It would probably be more accurate to say "I think JB gives himself too much credit for long-term predictions." The truth is, while his short-term weather forecasting skills are decent enough, his climate prediction record is absolutely terrible, with one badly blown long-term forecast after another. All one needs to do is listen to any of his multi-year prognostications to realize just how far out of his depth he is when speaking of climate. For instance, this nugget from last July: "I do think the planet is going to be cooling the next 20 to 30 years due to natural processes." To make such an inane claim, a person would have to be almost totally ignorant of physics.


How does his long term predictions verify quantitatively?


These are two cars outside my apartment.
Cyclone Nathan is currently in the process of rapid intensification, the byproduct of its small size and much more favorable environment (compared to two days ago). The latest update from BOM assessed the storm with 10-minute sustained winds of 75kt, which equates to 1-minute sustained winds of 85kt, but this is likely conservative based on the storm's appearance. Nathan is likely to become the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane prior to making landfall tomorrow morning.

Quoting 427. Drakoen:



Looks west-based at the moment which could have interesting implications for hurricane season.


I agree, the thing that is interesting to me are these very high SST anomalies off the SE Coast and Gulf. If this is the year for homegrown systems then this would be almost ideal with the current SST configuration across the Atlantic Basin.


Behind those bushes/small trees there is a pick-up completely buried.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree, the thing that is interesting to me are these very high SST anomalies off the SE Coast and Gulf. If this is the year for homegrown systems then this would be almost ideal with the current SST configuration across the Atlantic Basin.


If we do get any home grown systems wouldn't they be kept fairly weak due to windshear from el nino?


So much snow!
Quoting 438. luvtogolf:



If we do get any home grown systems wouldn't they be kept fairly weak due to windshear from el nino?


that's a great question and one we will not know until we know how strong El-Nino gets as the stronger El-Nino would enhance shear.
Good Morning. Here the NWS Headline for today and short-term Conus forecast from WPC:


Cooler weather continues for central, eastern U.S., unsettled weather in Deep South

Cooler weather is expected to continue on Wednesday for the central and eastern U.S. as a cold front makes its way south and east across the country. Meanwhile, heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible for parts of Texas and the Deep South, with some storms possibly becoming severe in the lower Mississippi River Valley Wednesday afternoon. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 18 2015 - 12Z Fri Mar 20 2015

...Cool and relatively dry across the Great Lakes and Northeast...
...Wet weather constrained mostly to the West and South...

The general flow pattern is mainly a zonal (or west-to-east oriented) one,
which brings Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest with higher
elevation snows as a disturbance aloft moved through. Once the system
crosses the northern Rockies, precipitation becomes harder to come by due
to a dry downsloped flow off the higher terrain, with precipitation areas
decreasing in coverage as they enter the northern Plains by Thursday
morning. Across the Northeast, northwesterly flow in the wake of a storm
moving by Atlantic Canada should keep conditions cooler than average over
the next couple of days.

Across the Southern tier of the country, a developing upper level low
across northwest Mexico brings its strengthening pocket of cold air aloft
and resultant increasing atmospheric instability across the Mojave Desert
and the Southwest, causing afternoon and evening thunderstorms late
Thursday, particularly in the proximity of mountains. The system draws
Pacific moisture aloft across Mexico into the southern Plains, with a
return flow off the Gulf of Mexico closer to the surface invading the Gulf
coast. This pattern leads to a broadening area of thunderstorms
stretching nearly from coast to coast from southern California across the
Red River of the South through the Southeast by late Thursday.
Thunderstorms across Texas and the Southeast are capable of producing
locally heavy rains over the next couple of days.


And here is the relative position of the Conus jet:

It's amazing what small tropical cyclones can do when given a brief window of decent conditions.

And finally, the latest National Radar Composite:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic
As the MJO continues moving into our area moisture in atlantic will continue to increase

Already there is difference in the atmosphere compared to a week or two ago
When the atlantic was dry more so the Central and E Carib which was so dry black was splattered over the Central and E Caribbean

The headlines already going on about this season and it's not even April yet
Headlines as follows

"The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Below Average Number Of Storms, But An Above Average Threat For Significant In-Close Development & Impact"
447. JRRP
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 6 hHace 6 horas
Entire atlantic picture now showing end game of warm cycle..warm water in western atlantic, ring of cold east/tropics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY THREE (17U)
10:54 PM EST March 18 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Three (971 hPa) located at 14.8S 148.8E or 390 kilometers east of Cooktown and 395 kilometers northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan has adopted a westwards track and should continue this general motion with a very slight increase in forward speed, for the next several days. This will bring the center of the cyclone onto the north Queensland coast, most likely between Cape Melville and Port Douglas, early on Friday morning. The system is small in size, but the core is likely to intensify up until landfall on the north Queensland coast.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h currently extend out to approximately 150 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Innisfail on Thursday night before possibly extending north to Lockhart River and over adjacent inland areas from the coast, including Palmerville and Laura on Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds extend out to about 70 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cairns overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, depending on the track the cyclone takes. Maximum wind gusts close to the center are likely to reach 260 km/h as the cyclone makes landfall.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Innisfail are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 15.0S 147.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 15.1S 146.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4) east of Cape Flattery
48 HRS 14.7S 142.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 13.9S 138.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
===========================
Tropical cyclone Nathan has significantly and rapidly developed today with the system now more symmetric in appearance and in recent satellite imagery an initially ragged eye has emerged, which has rapidly become more uniform. The development overnight and during today has been attributed to a very favorable environment characterized by very weak northeasterly shear across the system, and plentiful ocean heat content. The system is small in size, with microwave imagery depicting an inner eyewall with a radius of only around 15 NM, surrounded by a partial outer eyewall structure.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a LG surround and no adjustment, giving a DT of 5.0, however the past three hour average DT remains 4.5. MET and PAT were both 4.5. FT based on 3 hour DT as it appears clear. Current intensity set at 75 knots follows increasing trend and is consistent with improving satellite presentation. The location of the center is rated as good based on the Willis Island radar.

Tropical cyclone Nathan has adopted a westwards track today, being steered by a mid-level ridge extending across central Australia. Confidence in the system holding this westwards track into the north Queensland coast is high considering the strength of the mid-level ridge and the fact that most of the computer model guidance have tropical cyclone Nathan crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville and Port Douglas during early Friday morning. After crossing the coast, tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a westwards direction and weaken rapidly, given its small size and the rough terrain. The system is likely to re-emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria by Saturday, although a weak upper trough moving into central Australia will provide some vertical shear over the system by this time, and hence its chances of re-intensification are not clear.

Given the diagnosed and forecast low vertical wind shear environment, tropical cyclone Nathan is forecast to continue to intensify up until landfall on the Queensland coast. The official forecast calls for an intensification slightly faster than the standard rate, however given the very favorable environment and small size of the system, it is possible that a period of even more rapid intensification could occur and that the system could reach category 5 intensity prior to landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for areas from Cape Melville to Innisfail

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for areas from Lockhart River to Cape Melville, extending inland to Laura and Palmerville
As I have been noting recently, while the ITCZ is not at the required levels yet, on the E-Pac side of things, there has been persistent pockets of "wannabe" convection off the West Coast of CA in recent days. The point is that that the Central American Monsoon is probably going to produce a good number of E-Pac storms this year and we could get a few early storms before the May 15th start date if sheer cooperates and the right disturbance comes along; SST's will not be an issue in the E-Pac this year.



We had another blob, much like this one in this same area on Monday, which dissipated by Tuesday morning. Same thing will probably happen with this blob but this region seems primed for the E-Pac season already.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 449. weathermanwannabe:

As I have been noting recently, while the ITCZ is not at the required levels yet, on the E-Pac side of things, there has been persistent pockets of "wannabe" convection off the West Coast of CA in recent days. The point is that that the Central American Monsoon is probably going to produce a good number of E-Pac storms this year and we could get a few early storms before the May 15th start date if sheer cooperates and the right disturbance comes along; SST's will not be an issue in the E-Pac this year.



We had another blob, much like this one in this same area on Monday, which dissipated by Tuesday morning. Same thing will probably happen with this blob but this region seems primed for the E-Pac season already.


Real good sign for a early start to the Rainy Season across Central America. This could spur an early season spinner in the NW Caribbean too come May. Something to watch as we are about to close out March and head into April.
Quoting 236. 882MB:

Nathan you are just one pesky little bug.


Who you calling a bug? -___-

SOI is in a free fall right now. ESPI still rising now at .19

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 18 Mar 2015
Average for last 30 days -5.2
Average for last 90 days -7.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -22.2


the daily soi jumped up 12 points yesterday and you state "free fall"....your p....your right to do so...even if not actually factual....as...the daily value in and of itself is subject to many outside influences not directly enso related..

a short SOI primer....the SOI value is a simple mathematical calulation between the pressure differences of the tahitian and darwin regions....it is measured in 30 and 90 day readings...and also a daily value and if you read above they call it the daily contribution to the SOI calculation...there's a reason for that as i will explain in a bit.....and it typically responds to the enso cycle....during an el nino...the 30 day SOI is usually less than -8.0....and in a la nina event it is usually above 8.0

as it is based on air pressure....the daily value is very nosiy....i/e...it can have very large and temporary up and down swings that is not directly related to what is happening in the enso regions....as an example last month the daily value was more than 20....did this mean the enso region was exhibiting signs of a la nina?....no...actually it was a response to a tropical system affecting the darwin area....just as this high negative daily value is a result of tropical activity near the tahitian region....when we focus on the more important and less "noisy" number the 30 day value....it is at -5.2....which as daily numbers rise from the exiting tropical system...so too should rise.....and even as the number sits today....it's value is neutral...neither el nino or la nina