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Category 5 Cyclone Pam Catastrophic for Vanuatu; Western U.S. Heat Records Fall

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 2:13 PM GMT on March 16, 2015

A tropical cyclone catastrophe of nearly unprecedented dimensions is unfolding in the unlucky South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, as relief teams reach the hardest-hit areas from the Friday the 13th strike by Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam. The latest situation report from the government of Vanuatu lists 24 deaths and "widespread severe damage". The death toll is sure to grow as relief efforts reach some of the more remote areas that received the brunt of the storm. Cyclone Pam is almost certainly the most destructive tropical cyclone in Vanuatu's history--and possibly for the entire South Pacific east of Australia. At its peak, Pam's 165 mph winds made it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the waters east of Australia. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam's central pressure bottomed out at 896 mb, making it the second most intense tropical cyclone in the South Pacific basin after Cyclone Zoe of 2002.


Figure 1. Samuel, only his first name given, kicks a ball through the ruins of their family home as his father, Phillip, at back, picks through the debris in Port Vila, Vanuatu in the aftermath of Cyclone Pam Monday, March 16, 2015. Pam destroyed or damaged 90 percent of the buildings in the capital. Other portions of Vanuatu received much stronger winds. (AP Photo/Dave Hunt, Pool)

Pam was at its peak strength, with 165-mph Category 5 winds, when it passed over several small Vanuatu Islands to the north of Efate Island, Vanuatu's most populous island (population 66,000.) Pam is one of only two Category 5 cyclones in recorded history to make landfall on a populated island in the waters east of Australia. The only other Category 5 landfall event among the nine other Category 5 storms to affect these waters since 1970 was by the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the basin, Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Zoe made a direct hit as a Category 5 storm on several small islands in the Temotu Province of the Solomon Islands with a total population of 1700. There was one other close call: the eye of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Percy passed 15 miles east of Ta'u, American Samoa, on February 16, 2005, but caused minimal damage.

Pam's weaker southwest quadrant eyewall hit Efate on Friday the 13th, bringing terrible damage there. Continuing to the south, Pam hit the southern islands of Erromango (population 2,000) and Tanna (population 29,000), Even though Pam had weakened slightly to 155 mph winds by this time, these islands took a catastrophic pounding, since they were hit by the stronger southeastern portion of the eyewall, where the clockwise spin of the storm aligned with its southerly forward motion to create the strongest winds.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Pam as seen on March 13, 2015, as its southeast eyewall battered the Vanuatu island of Tanna. At the time, Pam was a high-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Tanna (population 29,000) probably took the worst punishment from the storm, due to the fact it was hit by the stronger southeast eyewall, where the clockwise spin of the storm aligned with its southerly forward motion. At least five people are confirmed dead on the island. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for saving this image.

Cyclone Olwyn: a costly event for Western Australia
Though much weaker than Pam, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn made its presence known on Friday as it raked a lengthy portion of Australia’s western coast, with peak winds of 100 mph near landfall. Olwyn’s path--paralleling the coast and gradually inland, with the strongest winds on the landward side--is roughly analogous to a hurricane moving slowly north-northeast up the west coast of Florida.



Figure 3. Track of Cyclone Olwyn. Image credit: Wundermap.

Olwyn produced winds of 70 mph, gusting to 87 mph, in the town of Carnarvon (thanks to Weather Channel senior meteorologist Matt Crowther for this report). The region’s banana crop, part of an agricultural system that produces roughly $70 million US in value each year, was reportedly wiped out, and more than 1,000 residents were still without power on Monday. Olwyn accomplished the rare feat of passing almost directly over a profiler (an upward-pointing, wind-measuring radar) located at Carnarvon’s airport. The profiler detected 115-mph winds at about 3000 feet above ground, according to Sarah Fitton (Australia Bureau of Meteorology).

Record-melting heat across western U.S.
From California to North Dakota, a large part of the nation’s northwest half experienced summer-like heat over the weekend. Some of the more ominous reports came from fast-drying California, where the rainy season is limping to a halfhearted end. Many stations around Los Angeles and San Diego set record highs near or above 90°F on each day Friday through Sunday. In the San Francisco Bay area, all-time monthly heat records were notched on Saturday at Salinas Airport (92°F), San José (89°F), Monterey (87°F), and on Sunday in Fresno (91°F). The heat pushed into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains on Sunday, with the all-time March record falling at Rapid City, SD (84°F). Many other locations saw their warmest day for so early in the season. In North Dakota, both Fargo (75°F; normal high 35°F) and Grand Forks (70°F; normal high 33°F) had their earliest 70°F readings on record--though by just one day, as the Great Warm Wave of March 2012 headed toward its amazing apex starting on March 16. More records appear certain to fall over the central Great Plains on Monday, with even the impressive numbers from 2012 in jeopardy at some locations.

At last: a seasonal snow record for Boston
The snowy onslaught that gripped Boston in late January and February smashed records for the most snow observed there in any single month (64.8”, besting the 43.3” from January 2005). After a reprieve in early March, a quick shot of snow on Sunday afternoon secured this winter’s place in city history as the snowiest on record. Sunday’s 2.9” pushed the seasonal total to 108.6”, breaking the record of 107.6” set in 1995–96. In a Sunday article, the Weather Channel’s Jon Erdman highlighted these and many other noteworthy aspects of Boston’s snow siege of 2014–15. The city’s snow records date back to 1891–92.

What about the 250-plus years between the arrival of the Puritans and the launch of modern snow-data collection in Boston in 1891? According to Weather Underground historian Christopher Burt, very few sites across New England maintained regular monthly and seasonal snowfall data prior to 1891. According to Burt: ”Cotton Mather noted that 36” - 42” of snow on level buried Boston between February 27 and March 9, 1717, as related in one of the first publications of the Massachusetts Historical Society. But there is no record of how much snow may have accumulated in the city over the course of that season. The same goes for all the winter seasons in Boston until we have the modern record. Bottom line: although we don’t know how much snow may have fallen each season prior to 1891-82, there is no positive or even anecdotal historical evidence to indicate that this season is not likely the snowiest on record since the founding of the city and, of course, in the modern record.”


Figure 4. Boston’s Beacon Hill on February 15, during the city’s record-setting streak of January/February snowstorms. Image credit: wunderphotographer Orfeo.

Our next post will be on Wednesday at noon at the latest.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc....thoughts and prayers to those stricken from cyclone pam
Thanks Doc!
now on to my posting theme from the last blog.........

and remember that MJO forecast...it was hyped that it would be off the charts....i mean literally off the page...is what we were seeing......this was going to rival 97....could even surpass it........WHOOOHOOOOOO......another large hype....another large failure........



Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Get ready to have your heart broken.
Since the beginning of 2015, reports out of California have looked bad for the sea lion: A seemingly endless stream of sick and starving pups were washing up on shore without their mothers. It's normal for this to happen in moderation. Sometimes the odd pup will be weaned too early, and find itself in the open ocean without the strength or skill to feed itself. But this year more than 1,450 pups washed ashore. More than five times the number rescued by this point in 2013 have turned up, and things are so dire that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned California residents that calls to the authorities about pup sightings may go unanswered. Sea World has shut down its sea lion shows to donate experts to the cause, but they still can't keep up with the flood of helpless, underweight babies. Experts think that climate change may be the culprit.

Link
last week did have a strong wind anomaly push in the 4 and 3.4 regions.....well....looking at the earth.nullschool site.....it's fizzled

you can view it here
and with that strong wind anomaly in the region...how did the 3.4 region fair???......did it go up as it was supposed to?????........let's peek into the magical looking glass and see....won't you join me???




ooops...move along folks...nothing to see here
weathermanwamnabe it's going to get cold again.But nothing out the charts.Just bring a light coat and tennis shoes as the ground is still very muddy.
Thank You Dr./Mr. Henson. Not looking good at the moment for Vanuatu (deathwise) and hoping that folks will continue to help the Nation in their recovery efforts which will take years. I will only note that we have seen a relative dearth of real destructive high Cat storms in the Atlantic Basin the past several years but the Pacific Basin has seen some real monsters in recent seasons including this one. We used to have pretty frequent Cape Verde high end storms tear through the Island nations in the Caribbean/Lesser Antilles with more frequency than in recent years as they have, thankfully, sputtered/struggled through the Central Atlantic. That pattern may change back in the coming seasons but low lying Island nations are usually no match for such a strong storm.

I will note that while not thrilled the the Prime Minister is not getting back to the Island until today, that he cited climate change issues (rising sea levels and recent heavier rains for Vanuatu) in one of his statements. Would be curious to know if there has actually been documented sea level rise in those Islands/that region in the past few years prior to this event.
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

weathermanwamnabe it's going to get cold again.But nothing out the charts.Just bring a light coat and tennis shoes as the ground is still very muddy.


Thanks; I will keep on eye on it next weekend. They are taking the Kids on a dinner cruise on the Potomac next Monday night and just trying to figure out what kid of coats to send her with for the overall weather.
Quoting ricderr:
and with that strong wind anomaly in the region...how did the 3.4 region fair???......did it go up as it was supposed to?????........let's peek into the magical looking glass and see....won't you join me???




ooops...move along folks...nothing to see here



well you this stop all ready
Quoting 7. ricderr:

and with that strong wind anomaly in the region...how did the 3.4 region fair???......did it go up as it was supposed to?????........let's peek into the magical looking glass and see....won't you join me???




ooops...move along folks...nothing to see here

Ric, I'm not sure if you saw my post the other day, but the warming is not an instantaneous process. Westerly winds act to build the subsurface warm pool, which then gradually slides east and surfaces.

Thanks Bob & Jeff. Beres, I hope your family is safe...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I will note that while not thrilled the the Prime Minister is not getting back to the Island until today, that he cited climate change issues (rising sea levels and recent heavier rains for Vanuatu) in one of his statements. Would be curious to know if there has actually been documented sea level rise in those Islands/that region in the past few years prior to this event.
Certainly:

Vanuatu village relocated due to rising sea level

Some 15% of Pacific islands wiped out by 1m sea level rise – IPCC

The first climate change refugees from Vanuatu still under threat

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Vanuatu
Ric, I'm not sure if you saw my post the other day, but the warming is not an instantaneous process. Westerly winds act to build the subsurface warm pool, which then gradually slides east and surfaces.


yep....i saw this...but the same guys that were hyping super duper el nino last year....were hyping this event that turned out to be a non event...comparing it to '97...and when you look at the mjo pulse and the sesponse....well...it was almost instantaneous......from february of -97 throuh march...as the mjo pulse started and strenghtened......the jump in the enso regions...averaged about 1.0
Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ric, I'm not sure if you saw my post the other day, but the warming is not an instantaneous process. Westerly winds act to build the subsurface warm pool, which then gradually slides east and surfaces.




Exactly its going to take about 6 to 8 weeks to really get the meat of the Kelvin Wave surfaced. Most models don't show this happening until sometime during May then strengthens into the Summer into moderate or strong category. The fact the you even have Dr. Phil Klotzbach talking about this means this El-Nino is likely not going to be the bust we've seen in years past.
Quoting 14. Neapolitan:

Certainly:

Vanuatu village relocated due to rising sea level

Some 15% of Pacific islands wiped out by 1m sea level rise – IPCC

The first climate change refugees from Vanuatu still under threat

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Vanuatu


Thanks; one of those posts (below) goes back to 2005:


The World Today - Tuesday, 6 December , 2005  12:36:00

Reporter: Alison CaldwellELEANOR HALL: To the South Pacific now where in Vanuatu rising sea levels have forced the relocation of an entire village. 

This is being described as the first case in the world of the formal displacement of an entire human population because of global warming.

More than 100 residents of Tegua Island had to abandon their settlement for higher ground after major flooding made their village uninhabitable.

But the UN Climate Conference in Montreal has heard that this could be just the beginning of a trend in the region, as Alison Caldwell reports.

ALISON CALDWELL: In August more than 100 residents of the Lateu settlement on Vanuatu's Tegua Island dismantled their wooden homes and moved half a kilometre inland. 

Will note that another potential issue (from the third article below) is plate shifting beneath the Island; looks like a potential combination of sea rise and plate shifting:

The village of Lataw in the Torres Islands, is subjected more and more to sea incursions. In 2004 this small community of Vanuatu in the middle of the South Pacific had to move several hundred metres back from the shore. The United Nations denoted its 70 inhabitants as possibly the first climate refugees in History. Are they innocent victims of global warming? Not entirely. IRD scientists and their research partners ( 1) recently described in the journal PNAS how this group of islands is sinking into the ocean at a rate of about one centimetre per year. The Vanuatu islands are sitting on the boundary of the Pacific tectonic plate, overlapping the Indo-Australian plate which is plunging underneath it, dragging its base along with the islands placed above.

These motions lead an apparent rise in sea-level twice as rapid as expected. Lataw has not been displaced to a suitable site. The Torres islanders, but also communities of other islands of Vanuatu, will have to go back and live in the hills, as their ancestors had done. The research conducted will help the local authorities take better decisions for their people’s future.
Quoting 15. ricderr:

Ric, I'm not sure if you saw my post the other day, but the warming is not an instantaneous process. Westerly winds act to build the subsurface warm pool, which then gradually slides east and surfaces.


yep....i saw this...but the same guys that were hyping super duper el nino last year....were hyping this event that turned out to be a non event...comparing it to '97...and when you look at the mjo pulse and the sesponse....well...it was almost instantaneous......from february of -97 throuh march...as the mjo pulse started and strenghtened......the jump in the enso regions...averaged about 1.0



Are saying Michael Ventrice hyped last year's El-Nino along with WSI?

From WSI last Thursday

Evidence that the Atmospheric-Oceanic System is Evolving Towards a Strong El Nino

HEADLINES: There are a number of signs that suggest the atmosphere and ocean are working together in such a way that could produce a strong El Nino to emerge this Summer and continue into the cool season. Recency bias associated with last year’s El Nino event in the media mainstream would suggest here comes another early Spring El Nino hyping… but there has been enough evidence that suggests an El Nino event did in fact evolve late last Spring which continued through early Winter. This being said, there are now a number of global-scale observations that support evidence to put out a strong El Nino alert for the 2015 Summer and Fall Seasons. El Nino atmospheres during the Summer are often associated with a strong uptick in Pacific (West and East) tropical cyclone activity, a colder than average U.S. summer, and a reduced frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Last Spring, we put out a blog that discussed there was risk for a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve during the warm season. While the Climate Prediction Center did not commit to naming last year’s El Nino event (due to not registering in their ONI index), there was an amount of activity around the globe that occurred last Summer into the early Winter that supported the El Nino impacts on global circulation. All ENSO indices with exception of ONI registered a moderate El Nino event later last Spring into the Fall, including our official atmospheric ENSO index.


A time longitude plot of the low-frequency tropical forcing (acts at ENSO frequencies) clearly shows the evolution of El Nino last Spring as the contours shift from the West-Central Pacific to the East Pacific last Summer.


Further, last year’s Summer (June-August) over the U.S. featured anomalous cool weather focused about the Plains and Midwest, where the CONUS only registered 851 CDDs. For perspective, 2013 came in at 889 CDDs and 2012 has a whopping 996 CDDs.



So what’s going on to support a Strong El Nino this Summer?

1) The current atmospheric state over the tropical West Pacific.

There are currently 4 tropical cyclones spinning out over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere
.

Two of these four tropical cyclones are identical twins about the equator, with one of the strongest Southern Hemispheric Cyclone’s ever observed pushing southward due west of Fiji. The strongest Cyclone, Pam, is forecast to reach 150-kt according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).



According to a post put out by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the strongest Cyclones in the JTWC record over the South Pacific (east of 135E) are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006). Both of these tropical cyclones reached 155 knots.

The burst in tropical cyclone activity over the Eastern Hemisphere can be attributed to a very strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event currently pushing across the central Pacific.


Through the dynamics of the MJO and twin cyclones about the equatorial West Pacific, we are seeing exceptionally strong low-level westerly flow over the equator. Mean westerly winds are now greater than 15 m/s! According to another post put out by Dr. Klotzbach, this westerly wind burst is the strongest event dating back to the one that preceded the Super El Nino of 1997. According to Tuesday’s ECMWF Weekly forecast, there are no signs of the anomalous westerly flow to slow down. In fact, they are forecast to shift eastward with time! During times where there is a massive amount of westerly stress on the surface of the Ocean, the Ocean will respond in a way that favors warming across the central and eastern regions via enhanced downwelling in the Ocean.


2) The Current State in the Pacific Ocean

While the atmosphere is in a state that is favoring El Nino amplification… the Ocean is in one too. According to the anomalous 20C isotherm depth time-longitude plot below, we are seeing a warm phase of an Oceanic Kelvin wave push eastward into the eastern Pacific.

The warm and cold phases of the Ocean Waves can often throw curve balls in most model ENSO predictions. It seems today’s models cannot properly resolve these ocean waves that can cause intraseasonal periods of warming and cooling in the Pacific. Nevertheless, a strong warm phase is pushing across the central and eastern Pacific. Note there is now an area of +6C anomalies in the sub-surface central Pacific. You can watch a looping version of the image below



With time, this area of anomalous warmth will slide eastward into the eastern Pacific and result in a rapid warming of the classic ENSO 3.4 index. The fact that we already have weak El Nino conditions in the eastern Pacific supports the idea that this will only grow in magnitude.

3) The mangitude of the current MJO event underway is in the same ball park of what happened prior to the strong 1997 El Nino.

The current MJO event discussed earlier is forecast to amplify over the central Pacific (Phase 7) to a magnitude somewhere between 3 and 4 standard deviations. The RMM phase 7 record amplitude during March was set in 1997 of 3.85 sigma. The latest forecast from the UKMET now rivals this record next week.


4) The second highest ever March Arctic Oscillation (AO) index value was recorded earlier this week. The highest ever value was set back in March 1997.

According to our internal AO standardized index, the AO rose to 3 sigma earlier this week. This is the second highest value in our WSI AO standardized index, second to March 1997. Now while the AO index itself CANNOT be used to predict El Ninos, there has been some literature in atmospheric journals that argue the North Atlantic response to El Nino evolves through a stratospheric pathway. This could be some sort of connection to that pathway that offers some insight to the state of ENSO this Summer. As a side note, CPC’s AO index rose to +5.5 sigma on the dates that our index rose to 3 sigma.


BOTTOM LINE: Amplification of the current El Nino event is anticipated this Spring. We suspect that this year’s El Nino event will likely be stronger than last years event. This suggests the upcoming summer will feature another active tropical cyclone season over the West Pacific and Eastern Pacific. Like what was observed last year and written in a number of blogs (example), strong West Pacific typhoons can impact circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that results in downstream impacts across the U.S. that often generates colder than average temperatures. Further as the current set up stands today, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is looking like to be another dud. More details to come in the official Hurricane and U.S. Summer outlooks.
Almost a summer like pattern with the High temperatures here along Central FL. Now all we need are those afternoon seabreeze driven thunderstorms to spice things up. The Bermuda High is dominating our synoptic weather pattern.

img src="">

What will be interesting to see is if that continues and sets the trend for the upcoming Hurricane Season. Usually, a big ridge in the Atlantic is associated with El Nino's like 1992 which is responsible for bringing stable airmass through the MDR, increasing trade winds causing upwelling of the sea surface temperatures, and strong westerly wind shear throughout the Caribbean. One area that tends to remain favorable during an El Nino is actually the area known as the Bermuda Triangle (see Andrew 1992). Another area is the north central Atlantic above 20 North (see Gordon and Helene 2006). And finally the last area is the GOM (see Alicia 1983).

Here is an excerpt of the 1983 season:

The season, which began on June 1 and ended on November 30, was very inactive because of strong upper-level wind shear.[2] The wind shear was unusually strong throughout the Caribbean and open Atlantic, and disrupted convection in areas of disturbed weather so they could not develop. Over sixty African systems had formed and made it westward, but when they reached the Lesser Antilles, they were dissolved easily. The only area where the shear was minimal—a region encompassing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of Florida—was where the four named storms developed. This makes the 1983 season the least active season since the 1930 Atlantic hurricane season which had only two storms.[2] 1983 and the prior season became the first example of two consecutive years to have no storms form in the Caribbean Sea since 1871, when reliable record began.[2] 1983 also proved to be the first season since 1871 that a storm did not form south of 25°N latitude.
Snow for Friday in the Mid-Atlantic showing up on most of the models

22. bwi
I hope the death toll from Pam's strike remains low, but I fear it won't be the cyclone itself but the aftermath that could be most difficult for many people there. Many residents of those islands depend on local agriculture and near-shore fishing that may have been severely disrupted. There isn't much transport infrastructure or extensive commerce. So for the survivors, with blown down houses and crops, and scattered livestock, the weeks to come could be extremely challenging. May those with losses be comforted, and here's hoping that the governments of surrounding nations, such as Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, can organize a sustained recovery effort for those islanders who will need help getting back on their feet.
Quoting 20. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Almost a summer like pattern with the High temperatures here along Central FL. Now all we need are those afternoon seabreeze driven thunderstorms to spice things up. The Bermuda High is dominating our synoptic weather pattern.

img src="">

What will be interesting to see is if that continues and sets the trend for the upcoming Hurricane Season. Usually, a big ridge in the Atlantic is associated with El Nino's like 1992 which is responsible for bringing stable airmass through the MDR, increasing trade winds causing upwelling of the sea surface temperatures, and strong westerly wind shear throughout the Caribbean. One area that tends to remain favorable during an El Nino is actually the area known as the Bermuda Triangle (see Andrew 1992). Another area is the north central Atlantic above 20 North (see Gordon and Helene 2006). And finally the last area is the GOM (see Alicia 1983).

Here is an excerpt of the 1983 season:

The season, which began on June 1 and ended on November 30, was very inactive because of strong upper-level wind shear.[2] The wind shear was unusually strong throughout the Caribbean and open Atlantic, and disrupted convection in areas of disturbed weather so they could not develop. Over sixty African systems had formed and made it westward, but when they reached the Lesser Antilles, they were dissolved easily. The only area where the shear was minimal—a region encompassing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of Florida—was where the four named storms developed. This makes the 1983 season the least active season since the 1930 Atlantic hurricane season which had only two storms.[2] 1983 and the prior season became the first example of two consecutive years to have no storms form in the Caribbean Sea since 1871, when reliable record began.[2] 1983 also proved to be the first season since 1871 that a storm did not form south of 25°N latitude.


Hit 90 yesterday at my place GT.
bright side olywn provided much needed rains. hopefully we can get something tropical into calif this late summer
Thanks to the Dynamic Duo for the New Post, Congrats to Boston on the new record.
26. rlk
I'm working on my own writeup for Boston for the 1992-present period in general and this winter specifically. It's ongoing, of course, and I won't close the books on it until April 30, but you can find it here. It includes a lot of references.

Regarding snowfall depths, Logan Airport doesn't record snow depth any more and hasn't in quite some years. The pre-existing record was 31" in January 1996 just before the great meltdown. I don't know where the claim of 37" snow depth on Feb. 9 or 10 comes from (I've seen it in a number of informal places), but it does not appear to originate from NWS KBOX or the NCDC. I've come up with my own estimate of 37-38", but on Feb. 15, based on (not quality checked) data from the NCDC combined with individual storm reports from trained spotters nearby. That's discussed in my writeup.

From what I've read of 1717, I don't believe this year was as bad. Cotton Mather's note of 36-42" more likely refers to snow _depth_ than snow _accumulation_, and there are other reports of houses being buried and people needing to dig tunnels.

The other winter I wonder about is 1888, although the blizzard of 1888 had Boston in the warm sector for much of the storm.

Regardless, an historic winter here in Boston.
Quoting 9. weathermanwannabe:

I will note that while not thrilled the the Prime Minister is not getting back to the Island until today, that he cited climate change issues (rising sea levels and recent heavier rains for Vanuatu) in one of his statements. Would be curious to know if there has actually been documented sea level rise in those Islands/that region in the past few years prior to this event.


Sea Level Rise Pacific Ocean




Map of sea level rise from TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2


Click for larger image
400.26 ppm CO2 achieved

Congratulations Earth Dweller's!
30. bwi
Quoting 21. Drakoen:

Snow for Friday in the Mid-Atlantic showing up on most of the models




OK, that does it. These last two winters in DC have been harsh, and somebody has to do something about it. Therefore, I've decided to make a sacrifice for the common good. So I'm decided to take next January off -- just booked a 4 week anti-podal vacation in Fiji. That should guarantee sunny skies and above-average temps in the eastern U.S. with a few beautiful, quick melting snowstorms for entertainment.

So now neo-ENSOstudent-ites, here's a question: what will be the impact of a possible full fledged El Nino on Fiji next January? Higher than average risk of cyclones? Drought? Disruption to trade winds? Remember, I'm willing to sacrifice with bad weather for me in order to insure less obnoxious weather for the eastern U.S....
Way to go Boston! You deserve this snow record, i mean, you might as well break the record after last month. Happy early St. Patty's day!
Quoting 21. Drakoen:

Snow for Friday in the Mid-Atlantic showing up on most of the models


Well there goes my weekend...
Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ric, I'm not sure if you saw my post the other day, but the warming is not an instantaneous process. Westerly winds act to build the subsurface warm pool, which then gradually slides east and surfaces.

So you're depending on the westerly's to keep blowing? I would wait a while as this will might reach a moderate level come fall of this year. If this forms into a Modoki, Modoki, Modoki, this could have a small influence come this summer on the upcoming hurricane season. There could be some very disappointed bloggers on here who have been wrong in the past on their Nino forecast. Notice I use a lot of words like ,could, would and if's a lot in my post, just like the government weather services and climate prediction forecasters. This way if I'm right or wrong I'm covered.
Quoting 19. StormTrackerScott:




Are saying Michael Ventrice hyped last year's El-Nino along with WSI?

From WSI last Thursday

Evidence that the Atmospheric-Oceanic System is Evolving Towards a Strong El Nino

HEADLINES: There are a number of signs that suggest the atmosphere and ocean are working together in such a way that could produce a strong El Nino to emerge this Summer and continue into the cool season. Recency bias associated with last year’s El Nino event in the media mainstream would suggest here comes another early Spring El Nino hyping… but there has been enough evidence that suggests an El Nino event did in fact evolve late last Spring which continued through early Winter. This being said, there are now a number of global-scale observations that support evidence to put out a strong El Nino alert for the 2015 Summer and Fall Seasons. El Nino atmospheres during the Summer are often associated with a strong uptick in Pacific (West and East) tropical cyclone activity, a colder than average U.S. summer, and a reduced frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Last Spring, we put out a blog that discussed there was risk for a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve during the warm season. While the Climate Prediction Center did not commit to naming last year’s El Nino event (due to not registering in their ONI index), there was an amount of activity around the globe that occurred last Summer into the early Winter that supported the El Nino impacts on global circulation. All ENSO indices with exception of ONI registered a moderate El Nino event later last Spring into the Fall, including our official atmospheric ENSO index.


A time longitude plot of the low-frequency tropical forcing (acts at ENSO frequencies) clearly shows the evolution of El Nino last Spring as the contours shift from the West-Central Pacific to the East Pacific last Summer.


Further, last year’s Summer (June-August) over the U.S. featured anomalous cool weather focused about the Plains and Midwest, where the CONUS only registered 851 CDDs. For perspective, 2013 came in at 889 CDDs and 2012 has a whopping 996 CDDs.



So what’s going on to support a Strong El Nino this Summer?

1) The current atmospheric state over the tropical West Pacific.

There are currently 4 tropical cyclones spinning out over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere
.

Two of these four tropical cyclones are identical twins about the equator, with one of the strongest Southern Hemispheric Cyclone’s ever observed pushing southward due west of Fiji. The strongest Cyclone, Pam, is forecast to reach 150-kt according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).



According to a post put out by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the strongest Cyclones in the JTWC record over the South Pacific (east of 135E) are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006). Both of these tropical cyclones reached 155 knots.

The burst in tropical cyclone activity over the Eastern Hemisphere can be attributed to a very strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event currently pushing across the central Pacific.


Through the dynamics of the MJO and twin cyclones about the equatorial West Pacific, we are seeing exceptionally strong low-level westerly flow over the equator. Mean westerly winds are now greater than 15 m/s! According to another post put out by Dr. Klotzbach, this westerly wind burst is the strongest event dating back to the one that preceded the Super El Nino of 1997. According to Tuesday’s ECMWF Weekly forecast, there are no signs of the anomalous westerly flow to slow down. In fact, they are forecast to shift eastward with time! During times where there is a massive amount of westerly stress on the surface of the Ocean, the Ocean will respond in a way that favors warming across the central and eastern regions via enhanced downwelling in the Ocean.


2) The Current State in the Pacific Ocean

While the atmosphere is in a state that is favoring El Nino amplification… the Ocean is in one too. According to the anomalous 20C isotherm depth time-longitude plot below, we are seeing a warm phase of an Oceanic Kelvin wave push eastward into the eastern Pacific.

The warm and cold phases of the Ocean Waves can often throw curve balls in most model ENSO predictions. It seems today’s models cannot properly resolve these ocean waves that can cause intraseasonal periods of warming and cooling in the Pacific. Nevertheless, a strong warm phase is pushing across the central and eastern Pacific. Note there is now an area of +6C anomalies in the sub-surface central Pacific. You can watch a looping version of the image below



With time, this area of anomalous warmth will slide eastward into the eastern Pacific and result in a rapid warming of the classic ENSO 3.4 index. The fact that we already have weak El Nino conditions in the eastern Pacific supports the idea that this will only grow in magnitude.

3) The mangitude of the current MJO event underway is in the same ball park of what happened prior to the strong 1997 El Nino.

The current MJO event discussed earlier is forecast to amplify over the central Pacific (Phase 7) to a magnitude somewhere between 3 and 4 standard deviations. The RMM phase 7 record amplitude during March was set in 1997 of 3.85 sigma. The latest forecast from the UKMET now rivals this record next week.


4) The second highest ever March Arctic Oscillation (AO) index value was recorded earlier this week. The highest ever value was set back in March 1997.

According to our internal AO standardized index, the AO rose to 3 sigma earlier this week. This is the second highest value in our WSI AO standardized index, second to March 1997. Now while the AO index itself CANNOT be used to predict El Ninos, there has been some literature in atmospheric journals that argue the North Atlantic response to El Nino evolves through a stratospheric pathway. This could be some sort of connection to that pathway that offers some insight to the state of ENSO this Summer. As a side note, CPC’s AO index rose to +5.5 sigma on the dates that our index rose to 3 sigma.


BOTTOM LINE: Amplification of the current El Nino event is anticipated this Spring. We suspect that this year’s El Nino event will likely be stronger than last years event. This suggests the upcoming summer will feature another active tropical cyclone season over the West Pacific and Eastern Pacific. Like what was observed last year and written in a number of blogs (example), strong West Pacific typhoons can impact circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that results in downstream impacts across the U.S. that often generates colder than average temperatures. Further as the current set up stands today, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is looking like to be another dud. More details to come in the official Hurricane and U.S. Summer outlooks.
Scott, you are a subscriber to WB right, please take a look at the WB premium site, JB has a nice little article on their about the Nino that could be forming this summer into fall. I like how all these forecasters use a lot of words like, could, might, if, might in their forecast, this way there never wrong.
Lordy,

LoL
Quoting 32. washingtonian115:

Well there goes my weekend...


You need to move to Anchorage, where it warm and there is no snow... Kinda ironic...

Of course we just spent a week where the low was -10f and the high was in the single digits... This week is supposed to be pretty warm with high in the mid 40s forecasted. I suspect that the remainder of what little snow/ice is left in my yard will be completely gone.
Someone should REALLY OPEN a El Nino dice game blog .
Pat - How is your weather this morning?
Quoting 36. Dakster:



You need to move to Anchorage, where it warm and there is no snow... Kinda ironic...

Of course we just spent a week where the low was -10f and the high was in the single digits... This week is supposed to be pretty warm with high in the mid 40s forecasted. I suspect that the remainder of what little snow/ice is left in my yard will be completely gone.
Still some small piles here and there..I have a dinner to Friday night.I know how horrible DMV drivers are...
Here are some of the suggested Orgs for donations for relief efforts for Vanuatu if you are able/so inclined to make a donation per TVOne New Zealand: 
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/vanuatu-disaster- you-can-donate-6255882
A massive international relief effort is underway in Vanuatu after a category five tropical cyclone ripped across the country. Relief workers say there is no power at the capital's hospital, the morgue is flooded, schools are out of action and there is not enough clean water. Aid agencies say Cyclone Pam is likely to be one of the worst disasters the Pacific has ever seen.

How you can help

Red Cross

UNICEF

Oxfam

Tear Fund

World Vision

Save the Children



National news now is this MJO. This MJO broke a major record!!

Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The Real-Time Multivariate MJO index has broke its all-time record for the highest amplitude in history; +4.10 sigma!

Continental United States Extremes
Sun's High Temperature: 94 at Chino Ca And Fullerton Ca And Santee Ca
Mon's Low Temperature: 5 BELOW ZERO at Whitefield Nh
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:

National news now is this MJO. This MJO broke a major record!!

Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The Real-Time Multivariate MJO index has broke its all-time record for the highest amplitude in history; +4.10 sigma!




Something is happening out of the norm.

We shall see.
Late May should make things clearer.
LargoFL-

I know they had to have meant Lower 48 or Contiguous US... Because it was definitely colder up here than -5F.

I know it is not you, but what Continent is Alaska located on? I have this argument with places that offer free shipping to the continental US... And then they won't ship to me in Alaska. So I ask them to tell what continent I am on. Later I notice the web site gets changed to contiguous or lower 48 US or except HI and AK...
Quoting 42. LargoFl:

Continental United States Extremes
Sun's High Temperature: 94 at Chino Ca And Fullerton Ca And Santee Ca
Mon's Low Temperature: 5 BELOW ZERO at Whitefield Nh



The News said yesterday that the Fullerton temperature was 12° above the previous record temperature.
Quoting 38. Dakster:

Pat - How is your weather this morning?


Howdy up dere in Sunny and Warm Alaska,

Clear and warm, Spring like here. 76F
The short-range WPC discussion for Conus from this am as we start the the first official day of Spring on Friday:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 16 2015 - 12Z Wed Mar 18 2015

***Dry weather for the southern and eastern U.S. to start the week***

***Unsettled weather to affect the Northwest U.S.***

***Scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern Plains***


High pressure will promote dry and pleasant conditions to start the new
week across much of the eastern and southern U.S. Well above normal
temperatures are forecast to continue across much of the central Plains
and Midwest at least through Monday. Things will change as a cold front
settling south from Canada passes through these regions by Tuesday, with a
return to reality and much colder temperatures for the middle of the week.
This colder weather will eventually reach the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
states by Wednesday, with highs returning to the 40s and 50s.

For the western U.S., a series of weak disturbances aloft and a surface
cold front slowly moving across the Intermountain West will generate
patchy areas of rain from the Pacific Northeast to the northern Rockies.
Given the lack of deep moisture with this system, rainfall amounts are
expected to be generally light with snow confined to the highest
elevations.

Another area of precipitation worth mentioning will be moisture increasing
over Texas and New Mexico from a trough situated over Mexico. The
majority of the showers and thunderstorms should remain over Mexico
through Monday night, with scattered showers and storms developing north
of the border by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hamrick
Toasty up there this morning??? 15 degrees,
looks like your forecast is mid-30's all week....
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:

National news now is this MJO. This MJO broke a major record!!

Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy 1h 1 hour ago
The Real-Time Multivariate MJO index has broke its all-time record for the highest amplitude in history; 4.10 sigma!


I wouldn't be surprised to see an April tropical/subtropical storm somewhere in the Atlantic. MJO and sst are warming up fast. If that be the case I will have to come out with my numbers sooner.

80F water temperatures in the Gulf:



MJO moving into Octants 1 & 2 by the end of the month:

Quoting 48. PedleyCA:

Toasty up there this morning??? 15 degrees,
looks like your forecast is mid-30's all week....


Yep - The warm front/chinook wind is here. Supposed to be more like mid -40s this week...


Glad Patrap didn't have to knock the frost off the Palm trees this morning.
49. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:26 PM EDT on March 16, 2015

Not so sure on this end that we will see an April storm in the Atlantic; I am more likely to believe that we might see an April storm in the E-Pac prior to the official start of the E-Pac season on May 15th if sheer cooperates in April:

Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:

National news now is this MJO. This MJO broke a major record!!

Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The Real-Time Multivariate MJO index has broke its all-time record for the highest amplitude in history; +4.10 sigma!


Quoting 21. Drakoen:

Snow for Friday in the Mid-Atlantic showing up on most of the models


  12z GFS.
Eric Blake
@EricBlake12
2014 vs 2015 equatorial subsurface thermal structure very similar. Already in a weak El Nino-- stronger event coming


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 58m58 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 while this Kelvin wave is weaker, base state is a lot warmer than this time last year.
Quoting 52. Gearsts:




As GT said maybe Sub Tropical system in April? You never know.
STS = STS in April....Gotcha...

We have extreme rising motion in the atmosphere over the Pacific while there is extreme sinking motion over the Indian Ocean/Asia. Never seen this much of a drastic contrast.

Quoting 56. Dakster:

STS = STS in April....Gotcha...




Well if we get a cut off low going then we are in business.
Are saying Michael Ventrice hyped last year's El-Nino along with WSI?


yes scott...i'm saying that michael ventrice hyped this event last year...even on this very blog.....
Quoting 59. ricderr:

Are saying Michael Ventrice hyped last year's El-Nino along with WSI?


yes scott...i'm saying that michael ventrice hyped this event last year...even on this very blog.....


There is no hyping going on this year from the science community if that is what you are implying as all these indicators in the atmosphere seem to leading up to a bigger El-nino this summer. Even the folks at the NHC have been discussing this so I guess everyone is hyping this event then.

eric blake did too.....


Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, said conditions are changing rapidly in the Pacific, going from 50/50 odds of an El Niño, to a setup that eerily resembles the circumstances that preceded the monster El Niño of ‘97-’98.
There is no hyping going on this year from the science community if that is what you are implying as all these indicators in the atmosphere seem to leading up to a bigger El-nino this summer. Even the folks at the NHC have been discussing this so I guess everyone is hyping this event then.


actually scott...the same people that hyped last years event....are doing the same this year....while the bulk of the weather experts...are saying a weak event...and although moderate is not off the table...it's too early to say it will be
Quoting 55. StormTrackerScott:



As GT said maybe Sub Tropical system in April? You never know.

In Atlantic or Pacific???
Quoting 50. Dakster:



Yep - The warm front/chinook wind is here. Supposed to be more like mid -40s this week...


Glad Patrap didn't have to knock the frost off the Palm trees this morning.


Have to be care how you post the temps to your weather, I put mid-30's, where it should read mid +30's
to be accurate. Dashes can be miss construed.

Quoting 62. ricderr:

There is no hyping going on this year from the science community if that is what you are implying as all these indicators in the atmosphere seem to leading up to a bigger El-nino this summer. Even the folks at the NHC have been discussing this so I guess everyone is hyping this event then.


actually scott...the same people that hyped last years event....are doing the same this year....while the bulk of the weather experts...are saying a weak event...and although moderate is not off the table...it's too early to say it will be


What about Dr. Phil Klotzbach him too right? Fact is this El-Nino will be anything but weak this Summer and sign are pointing to atleast a moderate El-Nino that could go Strong. Going to be another very interesting update come Thursday by the CPC.
Date: Mar 15 2015



april mojo? in my opinion likely to see a trough set up southwest to northeast loaded with tropical moisture hopefully calif. gets a lot of it.
here'es what some of the experts of the cpc are saying...much different than blake or ventrice

What’s to come?
The CPC/IRI consensus forecast calls for an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the spring. In the ocean-atmosphere coupling indicative of El Niño, warmer waters lead to atmospheric changes, and those atmospheric changes in turn help maintain the warmer water. So, it’s possible that even the weak coupling we’re seeing now will support the continuation of the positive SST anomalies. As I mentioned above, the recent westerly wind anomalies and the downwelling Kelvin wave will also help to keep the SSTs above average for the next few months.

Dynamical climate models are mostly forecasting a slow increase in the Niño3.4-region SST anomalies throughout 2015. Springtime is a difficult time of year for forecasting, as models traditionally have some difficulty seeing beyond the so-called “spring barrier,” and so the CPC/IRI consensus forecast probabilities decrease somewhat going into the summer, as forecast confidence decreases. That said, probabilities remain at or above 50% that El Niño conditions will continue through the fall.

After twelve months of El Niño Watches, we are issuing an El Niño Advisory. However, what it really represents is an incremental crossing of the borderline. If we follow the “Is it El Niño Conditions” flowchart, the warmer SST conditions, our anticipation that they will continue for the next several seasons, and signs of weak atmospheric coupling over the past month, mean we arrive at “yes!” From an impacts perspective, this is not particularly momentous, as El Niño impacts are weak in the spring and summer. Still, after months of hovering under the threshold, we can now say that El Nino conditions have arrived.
from the IRI concerning el nino.....


During January through February 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. Lately some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern a little more than they had been before January. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate warm neutral to borderline El Niño conditions during the February-April season in progress, continuing into northern spring 2015, with some suggestion of strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.
shoot...from the official cpc report themselves....

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5°C) will continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 7). This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015
.
Quoting 50. Dakster:

Yep - The warm front/chinook wind is here. Supposed to be more like mid -40s this week...


Chinook?
Quoting 70. ricderr:

shoot...from the official cpc report themselves....

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5°C) will continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 7). This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015
.



Wait till what they have to say on Thursday when all of the IRI enso members had huge jumps from the February update. Now if we went by the February plume then yes a weak to moderate event but the march update shows a moderate to strong event and that's fact.

STS just wants a strong El Nino to come to pass so he can come back in August and say "I told your so" after one year of posting charts and raising the flag as if he was/is an Enso savant. Fact of the matter is that Mother Nature will do whatever it does with current indicators pointing towards El Nino, an El Nino event (for the Atlantic hurricane season) has been long overdue after 3 straight Enso neutral seasons, and now we need to get past the Spring barrier and will get a better handle on how strong or weak this one might be come June-July. It is not that big of a deal in terms of natural cycles. As I have mentioned several times over the past year, I am more interested in the next La Nina Atlantic seasons (at least two) to get a gauge on whether we have/are already entering a less active phase for the AMO with fewer overall Atlantic storms regardless of Enso cycle; an El Nino year is not a good gauge on this specific issue.
Mixed Predictions for the 2015 Hurricane Season

rslonline
Early forecasts for 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season have suggested an average to slightly below average season.

However there is some variance of opinion ahead of the season which officially starts on June 1st.

Director of Saint Lucia’s MET Services; Venantius Descastes has sought to share some light of this year’s mixed predictions.

He says while the island takes into account all predictions it lean more to predictions from the Colorado State University.

Mr. Descartes the Colorado State forecasters assess the 2015 Atlantic hurricane activity based on several factors, one of them being the formation of El Nino.

The respected team of Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science believes that we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014), and say that they expect typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will return in 2015.

In December, the Colorado State forecasters noted that it was challenging to forecast whether or not the then developing weak El Niño would persist through the 2015 hurricane season. While significant weakening of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and thermohaline circulation (THC) was noted during the spring of 2014, North Atlantic SST and sea level pressure patterns have since rebounded to conditions characteristic of an active era.

Klotzbach and Gray anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season activity will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.
Quoting 73. weathermanwannabe:

STS just wants a strong El Nino to come to pass so he can come back in August and say "I told your so" after one year of posting charts and raising the flag as if he was/is an Enso savant. Fact of the matter is that Mother Nature will do whatever it does with current indicators pointing towards El Nino, an El Nino event (for the Atlantic hurricane season) has been long overdue after 3 straight Enso neutral seasons, and now we need to get past the Spring barrier and will get a better handle on how strong or weak this one might be come June-July. It is not that big of a deal in terms of natural cycles. As I have mentioned several times over the past year, I am more interested in the next La Nina Atlantic seasons (at least two) to get a gauge on whether we have/are already entering a less active phase for the AMO with fewer overall Atlantic storms regardless of Enso cycle; an El Nino year is not a good gauge on this specific issue.


Coming from someone who wants to limit post on Doc's Blog right. I guess that doesn't imply to people who put page after page of insults on Doc's blog about me with no scientific reasoning behind their post but that is OK right. You also say well the blog isn't the same well maybe you aren't the same. Fact is I back up my post and you seem to always have a problem with everything I post as you are just part of the klan that like to come on here and take jabs then run off the blog as nothing happened.

Anyways no I don't come on here saying I told you so I just come on and post what is going on weather wise.

By the way the 12 models seem to be trending wetter across FL this weekend into next week which is great as it has been hot and dry for 2 weeks now.

I enjoy the Blog and don't cause any waves or attack people and I am certainly not part of any "klan" on here .... :)
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:

National news now is this MJO. This MJO broke a major record!!

Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The Real-Time Multivariate MJO index has broke its all-time record for the highest amplitude in history; +4.10 sigma!




Sometimes those preliminary RMM values are too high, & i've seen many occasions where they get adjusted down after the fact (which no one is likely going to report, anyway), the RMM diagrams themselves currently only show 3.5 amplitude...

Other than the warmer background state, conditions aren't conducive for a strong El Nino at this point, the eastern hemisphere, & south Pacific interference shows little-if any indication of being appreciably weaker than last year, and the expanded global Hadley cell network will be a further detriment to any oncoming El Nino. The models (esp. the CFSv2) have been notorious for over-amplifying the +ENSO tendency in the face of a downwelling KW regime, (as we observed last year) & what's occurring right now isn't much different in that sense. Hence the climate/global models are usually only useful for ENSO prediction either when A) A significant ENSO event is already underway or B) we're located within a favorable short-term harmonic that's typically followed by a robust rebound response (i.e. a strong El Nino, or at the end of a multi-year La Nina) when the succeeding base state becomes (relatively) easier to predict...
....arguing about warm water. Come on yall.
For those of you who like your weather changeable, check out this forecast for Broken Bow, NE:

The models (esp. the CFSv2) have been notorious for over-amplifying the +ENSO tendency in the face of a downwelling KW regime


there's been paper after paper written about this....yet we see it from bloggers and even some mets alike that refer to it as if it is gospel......i think it's part of the wow effect
To bad this wonderful weather of last three days won't stick around for the clans marching down Tamms Ave in Dogtown tomorrow, but at least they should have a relatively sunny though much cooler day for it as StL supposed to drop from an 80 high today to 50s tomorrow. In S C IL, we're supposed to drop below freezing Wed morning from this approaching cold front. To all my fellow Celtic clan members, have a safe and enjoyable St. Paddy's Day.

Pretty sad you used a k there sts, at least you didn't make it a capital. No call for that, at any time.

For those of you who like your weather changeable, check out this forecast for Broken Bow, NE:

i was in chicago for the home show years ago in spring.....left the convention early to go to a cubs game...changed into shorts cus it was hot...had to buy sweat pants in the 7th inning cus the wind picked up,,,,and had snow at dinner time...i'm not sure it was as drastic as you posted...but it was close
To bad this wonderful weather of last three days won't stick around for the clans marching down Tamms Ave in Dogtown tomorrow, but at least they should have a relatively sunny though much cooler day for it as StL


is this the same clan that weatherwannabee is in....cus we could find out who he is by watching him march?
Quoting 71. PedleyCA:

Quoting 50. Dakster:

Yep - The warm front/chinook wind is here. Supposed to be more like mid -40s this week...


Chinook?


I have been told any wind from the south is what they call it.... I guess Washington might call it a Pineapple express too.

45F at the house now... I usually am more careful with the dashes... I messed that one up though!
Quoting 77. Webberweather53:



Sometimes those preliminary RMM values are too high, & i've seen many occasions where they get adjusted down after the fact (which no one is likely going to report, anyway), the RMM diagrams themselves currently only show 3.5 amplitude...

Other than the warmer background state, conditions aren't conducive for a strong El Nino at this point, the eastern hemisphere, & south Pacific interference shows little-if any indication of being appreciably weaker than last year, and the expanded global Hadley cell network will be a further detriment to any oncoming El Nino. The models (esp. the CFSv2) have been notorious for over-amplifying the +ENSO tendency in the face of a downwelling KW regime, (as we observed last year) & what's occurring right now isn't much different in that sense. Hence the climate/global models are usually only useful for ENSO prediction either when A) A significant ENSO event is already underway or B) we're located within a favorable short-term harmonic that's typically followed by a robust rebound response (i.e. a strong El Nino, or at the end of a multi-year La Nina) when the succeeding base state becomes (relatively) easier to predict...



There is very good agreement in the models right now for atleast a moderate El-Nino. last year the models were all over the place. The thing I find interesting is the models show this happening with in the next several weeks so its not like we have to wait till late Summer as what was being depicted last year.

Infact it seems the upward trend is beginning as last week we had a 0.8C rise across Nino 1&2 and this trend is happening again this week. What you are seeing is a classic signature to what on would expect from a stronger El-Nino beginning to manifest itself. Positive IOD developing and a warm eastern based El-Nino now in the making as these westerly wind burst are encroaching on areas east of 100W.

Anyone think this is modoki????
Was hurricane Katrina a home grown system?
Greetings. After a comfortable thaw for the past week and a half it seems like we're destined to re-live February again. (The coldest February on record since record-keeping began in 1871 here in Montreal.)

Mon night 16 Mar
Snow (<5cm)
-1C

Tue 17 Mar
Snow (5-10cm)
0C

Wed 18 Mar
Sunny
-5C/-12C

Thu 19 Mar
Sunny
-3C/-13C

Fri 20 Mar
Chance of flurries 40%
2C/-5C

Sat 21 Mar
Chance of flurries 60%
1C/-1C

Sun 22 Mar
Sunny
-4C/-12C
Quoting 87. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Anyone think this is modoki????


It is for now but that is now changing. Expect to see lots of oranges and red anomalies near South America in 6 to 8 weeks time.
Quoting 88. FirstCoastMan:

Was hurricane Katrina a home grown system?

Yes. It formed over the Bahamas from the interaction of a tropical wave with the remnants of Tropical Depression Ten.
Quoting 86. StormTrackerScott:



There is very good agreement in the models right now for atleast a moderate El-Nino. last year the models were all over the place. The thing I find interesting is the models show this happening with in the next several weeks so its not like we have to wait till late Summer as what was being depicted last year.

Infact it seems the upward trend is beginning as last week we had a 0.8C rise across Nino 1&2 and this trend is happening again this week. What you are seeing is a classic signature to what on would expect from a stronger El-Nino beginning to manifest itself. Positive IOD developing and a warm eastern based El-Nino now in the making as these westerly wind burst are encroaching on areas east of 100W.



Well actually this is about the 2nd or 3rd time nino region 1+2 has shot up. It'll probably just shoot right back down. This region is the most sensitive,and it is the one that plays the most tricks on ya. I'm thinking modoki. Anyone else thinking modoki??? Also notice the huge amount of warming nearAfrica and in the MDR.
Flying Car to Go on Sale by 2017
Quoting 90. StormTrackerScott:



It is for now but that is now changing. Expect to see lots of oranges and red anomalies near South America in 6 to 8 weeks time.

I like your enthusiasm and alertness especially when it comes to enso. You know it all STS.
Quoting 93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Flying Car to Go on Sale by 2017


Which company?

You can't just make a statement like that without a web link...
Great blog post. Love the photo of Beacon Hill!
Looked up "Clans" and weather on the internet and could only find the forecast for Clans, France..............Looks like a nice place to visit.

Clans 10 day weather forecast, updated four times a day and shows the weather summary plus detailed sun, rain, snow, wind and temperature. The weather forecast extends out to 10 days showing information for morning, afternoon and overnight. See the links below the weather forecasts for other cities, towns and villages near Clans.  Clans is 2320 ft above sea level at the distance of 75 miles from Marseille, to the S. Marseille has a population of 794K people. Local time in Clans is 9:16:40 PM CET.
Photo of Clans in Alpes-Maritimes

This one?

http://www.engadget.com/2015/03/15/aeromobil-flyi ng-car-in-2017/

Link
Quoting 95. Dakster:



Which company?

You can't just make a statement like that without a web link...


A limited edition, two-seater flying car will go on the market in the next two years, with a self-driving and self-flying model potentially not far behind, according to Slovakian company AeroMobil.

Juraj Vaculík, CEO and co-founder of the company behind the vehicles, made the announcement at a presentation during the South by Southwest Interactive conference in Austin, Texas, yesterday.

Vaculík hinted that a fully autonomous model is also in the pipeline. "If something like a flying Uber and flying Lyft will be on the market, I think many users will find this a very efficient way to move,” he said.

The current AeroMobil 3.0 has a top flight speed of 100 mph, will have a flying range of around 430 miles, with altitude limited to 9,800 feet to avoid cabin pressurisation.

It will be equipped with a partial autopilot mode and feature an emergency parachute which deploys automatically should a pilot fall ill. It is designed to run on regular fuel, consuming around 15 litres of petrol an hour, and drivers will need to hold a valid pilot’s license in order to operate it.

The proposed mass-marketed flying car to follow AeroMobil 3.0 is dubbed to be a four-seater hybrid and will be totally autonomous. It is unconfirmed whether a driver would require flying qualifications, but the car is likely to get its own new, regulatory category of vehicle.

The cars can reportedly fit into normal parking spaces and take off and land on 200 metres long grass strips, negating the need for airports according to Vaculík. He added that travel time to and from airports as well as security checks can end up doubling air travel time, and so flying cars could be ideal for shorter trips of around 400 miles.

Vaculík argues that flying cars will reduce traffic congestion, as the vehicles would be spread in different “layers” of airspace. He envisions landing strips being built by the side of main roads or by petrol stations and advocated the vehicles for accessing remote areas, cutting the need for expensive roads in the future.

The company first introduced its working prototype for the 3.0 model at the 2013 Montreal Aerotech Congress in Montreal before unveiling an advanced design at the Pioneers Festival in Vienna last year. The model has been certified by the Slovak Federation of Ultra-Light Flying following authorisation issued by the Civil Aviation Authority of the Slovak Republic.

Vaculík acknowledged that regulations and certifications will likely hinder the mass adoption of flying cars but added that the project has strong support from the European Union.

"We need to match 100 years of bureaucracy in the air and 100 years of bureaucracy on the ground. It's not easy," he said.

Pricing for the limited edition AeroMobil 3.0 has yet to be confirmed, but Vaculík estimates that it will be in the range of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Quoting 83. ricderr:


For those of you who like your weather changeable, check out this forecast for Broken Bow, NE:

i was in chicago for the home show years ago in spring.....left the convention early to go to a cubs game...changed into shorts cus it was hot...had to buy sweat pants in the 7th inning cus the wind picked up,,,,and had snow at dinner time...i'm not sure it was as drastic as you posted...but it was close
Went to Chicago for Cubs-Cards game in early Apr. many moons ago, when headed up Fri. 80 and sunny, supposed to be that way Sat. too. Woke up to fog, overcast, mist & I'd made the mistake of only bringing shorts.

S C IL in low 70s this p.m., 50s dew pts, press just below 30", light S to westerly winds have picked up this afternoon to teens w/ gusts in low to mid 20s.
Quoting 95. Dakster:



Which company?

You can't just make a statement like that without a web link...


Photo from Newsweek article

AeroMobil. It's all over the web today :D
Dry times for the Sierra Nevada. Statewide (northern, central, and southern Sierra) snowpack is 3.8 inches of water equivalence, or 13% of normal for this date.

CA snow pack conditions (map)

CA snow water content (graph)

Snow water content is now at a record low for the entire Sierra Nevada range.
Interesting Wikipedia excerpt here for pre-season predictions for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

On December 3, 2004, Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2005 season, predicting a slightly above-average season. Additionally, the team predicted a greatly increased chance of a major hurricane striking the East Coast of the United States and the Florida peninsula. Though the forecast predicted above-average activity, the level predicted was significantly less than the 2004 season.[1] On April 1, 2005, after confirming that El Nio conditions would not develop, Gray and his team revised the December forecast upward, expecting thirteen tropical storms instead of eleven and seven hurricanes instead of six. In addition, the chance of a storm impacting the United States was raised slightly.[3] On May 16, 2005, 16 days before the season began, NOAA issued its outlook for the 2005 season, forecasting a 70% chance of above-normal activity.

What actually happened

Storms 28

Hurricanes 15

Majors 7

An extreme example of how wrong predictions of tropical storm activity can be, perhaps, but hopefully a lesson in the futility of trying to predict something that is governed by so many unpredictable variables.
I will believe it when I see it. So many companies have promised a flying car and no one has delivered...

I hope some one does and the business "takes off". Then maybe we will get the big manufacturers to make them... A little worried about that autonomous part... But since there is a car going coast to coast on its own, I might warm up to that idea.

I wonder how the aeromobile does in bad weather?
.
Quoting 86. StormTrackerScott:



There is very good agreement in the models right now for atleast a moderate El-Nino. last year the models were all over the place. The thing I find interesting is the models show this happening with in the next several weeks so its not like we have to wait till late Summer as what was being depicted last year.

Infact it seems the upward trend is beginning as last week we had a 0.8C rise across Nino 1&2 and this trend is happening again this week. What you are seeing is a classic signature to what on would expect from a stronger El-Nino beginning to manifest itself. Positive IOD developing and a warm eastern based El-Nino now in the making as these westerly wind burst are encroaching on areas east of 100W.




I'm not entirely sure about the origins of your obsession w/ the models in regards to ENSO prediction, but it's not wise to blindly follow them, even if the agreement is supposedly better this year. I'm sure you already know this, and I may just be talking to a brick wall here...

A strong(er) El Nino isn't certainly not going to be difficult to accomplish considering this event was borderline in the first place & we're already well ahead of last year (although, again the E hem/S Pac interference made it a lot tougher to get there)...

OISSTv2 for NINO 1-2 is actually still below average w/ the latest weekly value @ -.3C, w/ a weekly increase of .2C, a far cry from what you claim as .8C. The NINO 1-2 region is notorious for rapid intraseasonal SST changes & we'll likely see this over the coming weeks w/ the downwelling KW
Link

The NINO 3.4 remains @ or .5C as of the week of March 11th, thus it's very likely we'll see the JFM tri-monthly register at .5C or greater in the next ONI update (or two, given ERSST often goes through a few adjustments in the following months before final ONI value is solidified), giving this event "official" status as a weak El Nino under the CPC's definition...
Quoting 105. Dakster:

I will believe it when I see it. So many companies have promised a flying car and no one has delivered...

I hope some one does and the business "takes off". Then maybe we will get the big manufacturers to make them... A little worried about that autonomous part... But since there is a car going coast to coast on its own, I might warm up to that idea.

I wonder how the aeromobile does in bad weather?

Thinking of taking a trip through an eyewall?
"Vaculík argues that flying cars will reduce traffic congestion, as the vehicles would be spread in different “layers” of airspace."

Kind of like the movie 'Fifth Element'.

These might be cooler than jetpacks...
Quoting 108. oldnewmex:


Thinking of taking a trip through an eyewall?


Hardly... I was thinking more of what an afternoon thunderstorm would do to it.
Quoting 80. Neapolitan:

For those of you who like your weather changeable, check out this forecast for Broken Bow, NE:




That's insane.
Quoting LAbonbon:


Photo from Newsweek article

AeroMobil. It's all over the web today :D
If I can takeofff while Im on I-95 then ill write'em a check today.
Quoting 107. Webberweather53:



I'm not entirely sure about the origins of your obsession w/ the models in regards to ENSO prediction, but it's not wise to blindly follow them, even if the agreement is supposedly better this year. I'm sure you already know this, and I may just be talking to a brick wall here...

A strong(er) El Nino isn't certainly not going to be difficult to accomplish considering this event was borderline in the first place & we're already well ahead of last year (although, again the E hem/S Pac interference made it a lot tougher to get there)...

OISSTv2 for NINO 1-2 is actually still below average w/ the latest weekly value @ -.3C, w/ a weekly increase of .2C, a far cry from what you claim as .8C. The NINO 1-2 region is notorious for rapid intraseasonal SST changes & we'll likely see this over the coming weeks w/ the downwelling KW
Link

The NINO 3.4 remains @ or .5C as of the week of March 11th, thus it's very likely we'll see the JFM tri-monthly register at .5C or greater in the next ONI update (or two, given ERSST often goes through a few adjustments in the following months before final ONI value is solidified), giving this event "official" status as a weak El Nino under the CPC's definition...


On Levi site Nino 1&2 was near -1.1C early last week.

Quoting 62. ricderr:

There is no hyping going on this year from the science community if that is what you are implying as all these indicators in the atmosphere seem to leading up to a bigger El-nino this summer. Even the folks at the NHC have been discussing this so I guess everyone is hyping this event then.


actually scott...the same people that hyped last years event....are doing the same this year....while the bulk of the weather experts...are saying a weak event...and although moderate is not off the table...it's too early to say it will be
I think a blogger or two are doing more hyping than the real professionals are. Lets wait till the summer to see who is right, as I will usually go with the pro mets.
Quoting 111. largeeyes:



That's insane.


Fairbanks does that too. -50F and then +50F... Pretty wild temp swings.

We were -8F or so yesterday morning and it is 46F out now... Not quite as bad a swing...

I don't like the +90F to below freezing though. That has to stink.
Saw this article in the Guardian last week, but with everything going on with all the cyclones, I didn't post it. Very cool look into the urban explorations of a fellow named Adriano Sampaio.

The river hunter of São Paulo – a life devoted to finding its lost waterways
Many paulistanos are facing dry taps, yet there is plenty of water to go around in São Paulo. In the second part of our series on the struggling megacity, we meet the urban explorer who knows all of its hidden rivers and springs

River hunter Adriano Sampaio at a water source in Homero Silva park in São Paulo’s Pompéia neighbourhood. Photograph: Christian Tragni

Claire Rigby in São Paulo
Wednesday 11 March 2015 09.10 EDT

"News of São Paulo’s water crisis has, by now, spread far and wide. But although the word “seca” (drought) is much in use, and though a severe lack of rain is one of the many factors in play, when it comes to actual shortage of water, the truth – as with almost everything else in this sprawling metropolis – is that it’s complicated.

There’s a wealth of water in São Paulo: it’s just not always in the right places. As if to drive the point home, the late-afternoon rain that drenches the city most days in summer has been rare this year; yet during one recent, torrential storm, half the rain expected for the entire month of February fell in the space of just a few hours
." Read more
I'm not entirely sure about the origins of your obsession w/ the models in regards to ENSO prediction, but it's not wise to blindly follow them, even if the agreement is supposedly better this year. I'm sure you already know this, and I may just be talking to a brick wall here...

well since they haven't come up with the mid march updae model yet i had to go with mid feb....but voila......last year to this year....well....the future kinda looks the same to my less than expert eyes......of course.....it was spring barrier time...but let's not let a few facts get in the way :-)





well since they haven't come up with the mid march updae model yet i had to go with mid feb....but voila......last year to this year....well....the future kinda looks the same to my less than expert eyes......of course.....it was spring barrier time...but let's not let a few facts get in the way :-)


i take that back./////looking at the long term forecast.....2014 was more in agreement
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:



On Levi site Nino 1&2 was near -1.1C early last week.




El Nino is so passe. These days, it's all about Arctic Ocean summer ice area minima and the polar jet stream activity. Much more important variables, although a particularly strong El Nino would temporarily divert the focus of attention.
inside view of cockpit of flying car

Good evening everyone. Need a bit diversion by European weather? The pic below is too nice not to share though it's already some days old:


Suore carmelitane nell'igloo (foto di Filippo Crudele) Source: Corriere della Sera, March 11: Carmelitian nuns are resting in an igloo pub in the Abruzzi after the record snow fall last weeks in Castel del Monte, Central Italy.

This time it's the southwestern part of the Italian Alps that's trying to gather as much snow as possible. Here a map of the snowcover until Wednesday:



Photo from today showing already a lot of fresh snow, and there is more to come due to a low in the western Mediterranean which also causes flooding in parts of Italy and southeastern France (including the island of Corsica):

Foto: Rifugio Selleries; Source: Link

Meanwhile calm and quite sunny weather in Germany, but a cold spell is forecast for the weekend (always for the weekends!).


Current saved satellite pic. Loop.
think we should buy scott one he could fly out to check on west winds for nino
Post that I was planing to post earlier but lost Internet so I put it on now

Nino 4, Nino 3.4, are falling, Nino 3, is now negative Nino 1+2 is still negative


So much for +6°C
Also cold pools in E Pac and W Pac are remaining strong




So much for record breaking MJO burst

Link

Link
Link
Quoting 104. yonzabam:

Interesting Wikipedia excerpt here for pre-season predictions for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

On December 3, 2004, Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2005 season, predicting a slightly above-average season. Additionally, the team predicted a greatly increased chance of a major hurricane striking the East Coast of the United States and the Florida peninsula. Though the forecast predicted above-average activity, the level predicted was significantly less than the 2004 season.[1] On April 1, 2005, after confirming that El Ni�o conditions would not develop, Gray and his team revised the December forecast upward, expecting thirteen tropical storms instead of eleven and seven hurricanes instead of six. In addition, the chance of a storm impacting the United States was raised slightly.[3] On May 16, 2005, 16 days before the season began, NOAA issued its outlook for the 2005 season, forecasting a 70% chance of above-normal activity.

What actually happened

Storms 28

Hurricanes 15

Majors 7

An extreme example of how wrong predictions of tropical storm activity can be, perhaps, but hopefully a lesson in the futility of trying to predict something that is governed by so many unpredictable variables.

In hindsight, I have no idea why forecasts for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season were so low. The AMO, though weak as it should have been in January and February, rebounded significantly beginning March, with near record levels through the spring and summer. The Indian Ocean Dipole was negative, suggesting more vigorous tropical waves, the Gulf of Guinea was cooler than average, also supporting stronger waves and a farther north Intertropical Convergence Zone, and wind shear was running well below average beginning even before the start of the season. The signals were clear.
Quoting 86. StormTrackerScott:



There is very good agreement in the models right now for atleast a moderate El-Nino. last year the models were all over the place. The thing I find interesting is the models show this happening with in the next several weeks so its not like we have to wait till late Summer as what was being depicted last year.

Infact it seems the upward trend is beginning as last week we had a 0.8C rise across Nino 1&2 and this trend is happening again this week. What you are seeing is a classic signature to what on would expect from a stronger El-Nino beginning to manifest itself. Positive IOD developing and a warm eastern based El-Nino now in the making as these westerly wind burst are encroaching on areas east of 100W.


If I were you I would stop putting so much trust in these models, they were wrong last year and might be this year. I know if this was me and I was wrong so many times I might listen to some other bloggers on here, especially JB, as he knows more than the average Joe on this matter.
Quoting Patrap:
400.26 ppm CO2 achieved

Congratulations Earth Dweller's!
Tipping Point ?
I'm really starting to hate the El nino talk and arguing going on.
Quoting 87. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Anyone think this is modoki????
It might be, very possible, more than likely.
The melting of Antarctica was already really bad. It just got worse.
WP, By Chris Mooney March 16 at 12:17 PM

refering to this study:
Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica
Nature Geoscience (2015) Published online, 16 March 2015
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Anyone think this is modoki????

I
Quoting 130. barbamz:

The melting of Antarctica was already really bad. It just got worse.
WP, By Chris Mooney March 16 at 12:17 PM

refering to this study:
Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica
Nature Geoscience (2015) Published online, 16 March 2015


I've never been a believer in sudden, catastrophic movement of ice sheets from either Antarctica or Greenland into the sea, causing rapid sea level rise. The ice sheets are embedded in a sub-glacial mountainous terrain, which effectively stops them 'sliding'.
Quoting 128. Gearsts:

I'm really starting to hate the El nino talk and arguing going on.

I read the first few, but it tends to turn into bickering and personal swipes...at which point I tune out.

So, I scroll past and post other stuff :)
Quoting 129. NativeSun:

It might be, very possible, more than likely.

When the last modiki el nino occurred, did they declare it as modoki,or standard el nino????? Also,based on these observations from the tropical Pacific/enso state, this should be a very interesting hurricane season. We should know in about 2-4 weeks.
Quoting 132. yonzabam:



I've never been a believer in sudden, catastrophic movement of ice sheets from either Antarctica or Greenland into the sea, causing rapid sea level rise. The ice sheets are embedded in a sub-glacial mountainous terrain, which effectively stops them 'sliding'.
that's not correct and in fact water from under the ice is whats melting it more so on Greenland but also Antarctica as well

Quoting 117. ricderr:
I'm not entirely sure about the origins of your obsession w/ the models in regards to ENSO prediction, but it's not wise to blindly follow them, even if the agreement is supposedly better this year. I'm sure you already know this, and I may just be talking to a brick wall here...

well since they haven't come up with the mid march updae model yet i had to go with mid feb....but voila......last year to this year....well....the future kinda looks the same to my less than expert eyes......of course.....it was spring barrier time...but let's not let a few facts get in the way :-)







the mid March update is out and the mean is near 1.7C

Hmm NHC changing its GTWO/TWO % numbers

From
Yellow, 30 percent or less chance
-Orange, 30-50 percent chance
-Red, 50 percent or more

To
Yellow, 30 percent or less chance
-Orange, 40-60 percent chance
-Red, 70 precent or more
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:

When the last modiki el nino occurred, did they declare it as modoki,or standard el nino????? Also,based on these observations from the tropical Pacific/enso state, this should be a very interesting hurricane season. We should know in about 2-4 weeks.


You know that's a good question we need to look back at 2004 nino reports and see

Quoting 135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's not correct and in fact water from under the ice is whats melting it more so on Greenland but also Antarctica as well




I know water under the ice is melting it, but the ice sheets are still embedded on rugged sub-glacial mountains, which anchor them. It's not a smooth, marble floor under the ice.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


the mid March update is out and the mean is near 1.7C



OMG!!!!!
Your still taking the models for gospel!!!
What part of this you do not get
This time of year the Nino models are CRAP

Why you love these models so much
They are not the Brazilian Bikini models you know LOL!!!
Especially the CFS it's like you wanna marry CFS lol
Look I'll start biting the models later around May/June time frame and until the I just don't trust it and even when that happens I still trust CFS less
Was hurricane Katrina a home grown system?
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Was hurricane Katrina a home grown system?


You asked the same question on comment #88 and it was answered on comment #91
Quoting 140. yonzabam:



I know water under the ice is melting it, but the ice sheets are still embedded on rugged sub-glacial mountains, which anchor them. It's not a smooth, marble floor under the ice.

There are "subglacial valleys" in which glaciers are flowing towards the sea ...
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:



On Levi site Nino 1&2 was near -1.1C early last week.




Those kind of drastic variations (due to turbulent mixing/eddies, & sensitivities to other higher freq phenomena, which operate at drastically shorter timescales than ENSO) happen frequently in Levi's CDAS data, especially in the NINO 1-2 region, thus an increase like that isn't very remarkable... Picking the highest & lowest daily data points in a usually volatile region of the tropical Pacific to claim weekly derivative in SSTs is misleading, hence smoothed data under OISSTv2 is preferable...



Quoting 128. Gearsts:

I'm really starting to hate the El nino talk and arguing going on.


I guess we're trying to make up for all those years w/o it, lol... We just experienced the longest stretch between El Ninos since its 9 year absence from 1942-1951 (which may be questionable given WW II)
What do you think about the current MDR???? Also notice the gradual warming near Africa in the 7-day change, and the result of the warming, with a little yellow forming near Africa in the east-tropical Atlantic. Also notice the huge warming trend in the Gulf. Warm enough for some fishing alright.
Before I go to bed I've checked the latest from poor Vanuatu where another morning has broken:

From "humans of vanuatu" (Graham Crump):

There's an austere, terrible beauty in watching a tropical sunset over utter devastation. It's a covenant of sorts, a reminder that this planet nurtures as well as destroys. ...
Sunrise in Vanuatu and another day begins. The emergency aid flights continue to arrive and slowly some sort of order begins to emerge from disaster. A French Army flight from Noumea brought a dozen utility workers, who will be assisting in the mammoth task of rebuilding the local power grid.
I've seen a few preliminary assessments from overflights to the other islands. The news isn't good. We should be getting the first very preliminary on-the-ground reports within 24-36 hours. ...


First picture from Tanna, one of the islands south of Efate/Port Vila

Source: 28storms.com @28storms 37 min ago:
What was once a green forrest, stripped bare by #CyclonePAM on the island of Tanna, Vanuatu (picture via Lev Uma)


Source: 28storms.com @28storms 6 hours ago
#CyclonePAM UPDATE from Tanna: From the owner of Air Taxi Vanuatu, help is needed NOW.

RA Pacific Beat @RAPacificBeat 1 hour ago:
"Only 1 doctor looking after 30,000 people in Tanna" - @zdaniel #TCPam #Vanuatu

RA Pacific Beat @RAPacificBeat 3 minutes ago:
"The hospital in Tanna is operational" - @thomasmperry @CAREAustralia #TCPam #Vanuatu

Cyclone Pam: solutions to the human cost of climate change
Cyclone Pam is only the latest event calling for an effective response at global level - it must begin with acknowledgement that this is a shared responsibility
The Guardian, Mary Robinson and Gro Harlem Brundtland, Monday 16 March 2015 14.00 GMT

Cyclone Pam shows why more people means more havoc
The Conversation, Dale Dominey-Howes, Associate Professor in Natural Disaster Geography at University of Sydney, 16 March 2015, 6.01am GMT


With thoughts to all those bitterly affected and those who scramble to help them as well ... a good evening to everyone in here.
Webber you have been on a roll all day! Most mets and pros don't see this becoming a dooms day El nino like the models continue to advertise.They (models) were predicting a dooms day El nino back in 2012....Yeah..see how that turned out? (I'm sure many haven't forgotten about Sandy already?).All its been is crying wolf and "Wait one day its going to happen! Yes its going to happen this year! It'll surpass 1997) Give me a damn break -_-.
There were no confirmed tornadoes in the United States for the first half of March. This is the first occurrence of such since 1969 and only the second time in recorded history. FWIW, 1969 finished with a tornado count just over 600, but detection methods were pretty much nonexistent then so this value should be taken with a grain of salt.

If I had to guess, we're in for yet another sub-1000 tornado count...
Quoting 79. Storms306:

....arguing about warm water. Come on yall.
Now THIS actually made me burst out laughing and having people look at me all crazy XD.
From AGU:

U.S. hurricanes begin in western Africa's atmosphere
16 March 2015

By Tallie Lieberman-Levy

Hurricanes require moisture, the rotation of the Earth, and warm ocean temperatures to grow from mere atmospheric disturbances into tropical storms. But where do these storm cells originate, and exactly what makes an atmospheric disturbance amp up full throttle?

A new study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters finds most hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean that eventually make landfall in North America actually start as intense thunderstorms in western Africa.

"Eighty-five percent of the most intense hurricanes affecting the U.S. and Canada start off as disturbances in the atmosphere over western Africa," said Colin Price, a Professor in Atmospheric Sciences in the Department of Geosciences at Tel Aviv University in Israel, and lead author of the new paper. "We found that the larger the area covered by the disturbances, the higher the chance they would develop into hurricanes only one to two weeks later."
Read more
Quoting 150. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were no confirmed tornadoes in the United States for the first half of March. This is the first occurrence of such since 1969 and only the second time in recorded history. FWIW, 1969 finished with a tornado count just over 600, but detection methods were pretty much nonexistent then so this value should be taken with a grain of salt.

If I had to guess, we're in for yet another sub-1000 tornado count...

That's good to hear.
Don't want tornados, nasty things leading to death and destruction; enough of that around already.
Lets hope that the tornado drought continues and the California rain drought ends.
Quoting largeeyes:


That's insane.
What makes the weather in Nebraska insane? The high at my house in SE AL today was 93 after an overnight low of 45, and the humidity bottomed out at 17%. It's spring, and these kinds of large high pressure systems are responsible for downslope heating from the upper Mid-West to California to the Southeast. It happens every spring.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
WOODWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
518 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
WOODWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST WOODWARD COUNTY TO THE EAST OF STATE
HIGHWAY 50 AND NORTH OF E W 30 ROAD HAVE BEEN REQUESTED TO EVACUATE
TO THE WEST OR SOUTH AWAY FROM A WILDFIRE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
WOODWARD AND SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS EVACUATION
REQUEST INCLUDES ALABASTER CAVERNS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS OF SMOKE.
Quoting PlazaRed:

That's good to hear.
Don't want tornados, nasty things leading to death and destruction; enough of that around already.
Lets hope that the tornado drought continues and the California rain drought ends.
I'm not a big fan of tornadoes either, especially when one is roaring around my town. Still, tornadoes are a normal part of our weather pattern in the Deep South, and the convection that causes tornadoes also brings us normal to above normal rainfall. The tornado drought last year and, so far, this year, is also coinciding with a rainfall drought. We need the rain, so I'm willing to put up with the very small risk a tornado presents. It would be nice if we had a way to route them all through some uninhabited swamp though. :-)
Quoting 116. LAbonbon:

Saw this article in the Guardian last week, but with everything going on with all the cyclones, I didn't post it. Very cool look into the urban explorations of a fellow named Adriano Sampaio.
The river hunter of Sao Paulo - a life devoted to finding its lost waterways

Amazing stuff and an article very worth reading. Thank you for posting it!

----------------------------
NBC News Channel California landscaper offers free lawn replacement to customers willing to go drought-resistant. KCRA's Linda Mumma reports.
Published March 16th 2015, 1:48 pm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There were no confirmed tornadoes in the United States for the first half of March. This is the first occurrence of such since 1969 and only the second time in recorded history. FWIW, 1969 finished with a tornado count just over 600, but detection methods were pretty much nonexistent then so this value should be taken with a grain of salt.

If I had to guess, we're in for yet another sub-1000 tornado count...


Tornadoes and Atlantic hurricanes seem to be going the same way of the dinosaurs the last few years.
Quoting 156. LAbonbon:


DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

On the fire subject, I just saw on the news that a massive 2000 acre plus wildfire is being fought in Chile. Probably a lot bigger than that by now!
These wild fire will be a feature of 2015 as more dry weather continues and then the winds will take over and finish the story.
Expect a lot of fires this year as lack of water and dry ground cover react to the perfect conditions for wildfires.
The 2014-2015 snow season is reportedly the record snowiest snow season in New Brunswick's largest city, Saint John, with over 14 feet of snowfall.

Link
Quoting LAbonbon:
From AGU:

U.S. hurricanes begin in western Africa's atmosphere
16 March 2015

By Tallie Lieberman-Levy

Hurricanes require moisture, the rotation of the Earth, and warm ocean temperatures to grow from mere atmospheric disturbances into tropical storms. But where do these storm cells originate, and exactly what makes an atmospheric disturbance amp up full throttle?

A new study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters finds most hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean that eventually make landfall in North America actually start as intense thunderstorms in western Africa.

"Eighty-five percent of the most intense hurricanes affecting the U.S. and Canada start off as disturbances in the atmosphere over western Africa," said Colin Price, a Professor in Atmospheric Sciences in the Department of Geosciences at Tel Aviv University in Israel, and lead author of the new paper. "We found that the larger the area covered by the disturbances, the higher the chance they would develop into hurricanes only one to two weeks later."
Read more
I'm curious, once the study is available, to find out why they decided to use one five year period (2005-2010) as the baseline. Seems too short to me. The other thing I'm curious about is if they examined the null cases, e.g., there were large areas of clouds and storms but it didn't later turn into a hurricane. We saw a bunch of those last year, when a system looked good over land in Africa and then it died over water.
163. beell
Quoting 152. LAbonbon:

From AGU:

U.S. hurricanes begin in western Africa's atmosphere
16 March 2015

By Tallie Lieberman-Levy

Hurricanes require moisture, the rotation of the Earth, and warm ocean temperatures to grow from mere atmospheric disturbances into tropical storms. But where do these storm cells originate, and exactly what makes an atmospheric disturbance amp up full throttle?

A new study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters finds most hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean that eventually make landfall in North America actually start as intense thunderstorms in western Africa.

"Eighty-five percent of the most intense hurricanes affecting the U.S. and Canada start off as disturbances in the atmosphere over western Africa," said Colin Price, a Professor in Atmospheric Sciences in the Department of Geosciences at Tel Aviv University in Israel, and lead author of the new paper. "We found that the larger the area covered by the disturbances, the higher the chance they would develop into hurricanes only one to two weeks later."
Read more


It is interesting to quantify the relationship between areal cloud top temps ADDED: before a tropical wave has much if any shape to it while over the continent and future hurricane intensity. Something we all more or less take to be a fact-without benefit of a "study".
sorry about the edits :-(

Big wave leaving Africa with a pile of intense convection=High Hopes for a monster storm that tracks all the way across the Atlantic!

Course, then you run into stuff like this during the heart of the season....


dry air


or dry air and dust.


low vertical instability


and maybe a touch of shear!

(not all of these are seasonal examples of what spells the end of many a promising wave coming off Africa. Probably a bit of over-kill on my part).
:)

Thanks Dok Masters And Dok Henson!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 162. sar2401:

I'm curious, once the study is available, to find out why they decided to use one five year period (2005-2010) as the baseline. Seems too short to me. The other thing I'm curious about is if they examined the null cases, e.g., there were large areas of clouds and storms but it didn't later turn into a hurricane. We saw a bunch of those last year, when a system looked good over land in Africa and then it died over water.

I still haven't figured out why some papers are behind a paywall and some aren't. I always cross my fingers that it's freely available...but more often than not my hopes are dashed.
Quoting barbamz:
PAM UPDATE from Tanna: From the owner of Air Taxi Vanuatu, help is needed NOW.

RA Pacific Beat @RAPacificBeat 1 hour ago:
"Only 1 doctor looking after 30,000 people in Tanna" - @zdaniel #TCPam #Vanuatu

RA Pacific Beat @RAPacificBeat 3 minutes ago:
"The hospital in Tanna is operational" - @thomasmperry @CAREAustralia #TCPam #Vanuatu

With thoughts to all those bitterly affected and those who scramble to help them as well ... a good evening to everyone in here.
Thanks for all your updates Barb. I'm starting to get a little nervous reading some of these tweets. It seems like the NGO's are starting to run their own operation, some of which is probably overlapping with what the government and other nations are trying to coordinate. I know they are seeing what they think is an unmet need but it also doesn't sound like they are part of the unified command that the government of Vanuatu is trying set up, so they are making assumptions at this point. The government will start to exert its authority as this goes on, and the outcome won't be good. Even if things aren't moving at a pace you or I might like to see, having everyone with resources around the same table will lead to a better outcome in the long run.
Quoting 163. beell:



a bit of over-kill on my part).
:)


its exactly the way it should be this time of year
Quoting LAbonbon:

I still haven't figured out why some papers are behind a paywall and some aren't. I always cross my fingers that it's freely available...but more often than not my hopes are dashed.

Perhapz it'z because thay don' want ya lookin' at 'em.
Quoting LAbonbon:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
WOODWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
518 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
WOODWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST WOODWARD COUNTY TO THE EAST OF STATE
HIGHWAY 50 AND NORTH OF E W 30 ROAD HAVE BEEN REQUESTED TO EVACUATE
TO THE WEST OR SOUTH AWAY FROM A WILDFIRE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
WOODWARD AND SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS EVACUATION
REQUEST INCLUDES ALABASTER CAVERNS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS OF SMOKE.

FIRE FOR DA FIRE GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting LAbonbon:

I still haven't figured out why some papers are behind a paywall and some aren't. I always cross my fingers that it's freely available...but more often than not my hopes are dashed.
So true. It seems like some studies go behind a paywall because one or more of the sponsors try to recover some of their costs with the paywall. I don't know how much they get but I guess it's enough to keep doing such things. The problem is that "civilians" like you and me don't get to see the study until long after its made public. The paywall makes sure that the details stay within the academic community, where the institutions subscribe instead of individuals. There's been a movement afoot for a while to get any study paid for primarily with taxpayer dollars out from behind any paywall. That and five bucks will buy me a cup of regular coffee at Starbucks. :-)
Quoting 162. sar2401:

I'm curious, once the study is available, to find out why they decided to use one five year period (2005-2010) as the baseline. Seems too short to me. The other thing I'm curious about is if they examined the null cases, e.g., there were large areas of clouds and storms but it didn't later turn into a hurricane. We saw a bunch of those last year, when a system looked good over land in Africa and then it died over water.
they come a little ways more back than that in fact maybe all the way around the globe they travel as perturbations some longer than others and stronger depending on the seasonal adjustments moving along

kinda like a ring of weather if I can say
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:
The 2014-2015 snow season is reportedly the record snowiest snow season in New Brunswick's largest city, Saint John, with over 14 feet of snowfall.

Link

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

Webber you have been on a roll all day! Most mets and pros don't see this becoming a dooms day El nino like the models continue to advertise.They (models) were predicting a dooms day El nino back in 2012....Yeah..see how that turned out? (I'm sure many haven't forgotten about Sandy already?).All its been is crying wolf and "Wait one day its going to happen! Yes its going to happen this year! It'll surpass 1997) Give me a damn break -_-.


Yep, but these persistent, yet failed attempts at an El Nino are helping to drive up the PDO along w/ other favorable parameters... Heck, last year's massive downwelling wave dispersed quite a bit of its attendant warm water northward (in the form of coastally trapped KWs & rossby modes) along the coast of central America & Mexico into the northeastern Pacific basin. You can see this in the evolution of the SSH (Sea Surface Height) & Sea Surface Meridional Current Anomalies.. (note the -anoms in blue=more equatorward flux & vis versa w/ shades of orange & red (i.e. in this instance (at least before june-july, the negative meridional surface flux is an indicator for the location of an equatorially trapped downwelling KW within the counter current (thereafter, westward propagating Rossby Waves are noted, + meridional current anomalies=equatorial upwelling. Also, keep in mind, it's not the Kelvin Wave itself that physically carries the warm water westward, but the flow of & large volume warm water (about 75x greater than the initial KW itself), following in the wake of the wave to restore the natural wind-gravity balance in response to the weaker near-surface easterlies that does most of the heavy-lifting...)

Amazing to see the meridional surface current anomalies spike just following the culmination of that downwelling KW in July, was just in time for the eastern Pacific hurricane season...
Monthly Anomalies for SSH & Meridional surface current (March-July 2014)


Here's the link to the GODAS data, (I personally think the animations of their monthly products are sweet, definitely check those out :) )
Link

This massive downwelling KW, along w/ a weaker El Nino that would be less liable to "steal" upward motion away from the east Pac to its north, & vigorous AEJ/AEWs & wetter Sahel (allowing easterly waves to more efficiently maintain their footprints across the hostile tropical Atlantic & reach the more favorable haven of the Eastern Pac/CA Monsoonal gyre), were likely reasons why the eastern Pacific was so active last year w/ 3rd highest seasonal ACE on record...

I can't believe I missed somehow missed the part about the downwelling KW last spring affecting the E Pac hurricane season... Darn
Quoting 172. 62901IL:


WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
getting hammer again today in newfoundland blizzard conditions some locations may see 40+cm's of snow

have snow till early june on the ground down there
Quoting LAbonbon:

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Why can't da orks have dat fire danger, aye???????????????????????
Quoting 166. sar2401:

Thanks for all your updates Barb. I'm starting to get a little nervous reading some of these tweets. It seems like the NGO's are starting to run their own operation, some of which is probably overlapping with what the government and other nations are trying to coordinate. I know they are seeing what they think is an unmet need but it also doesn't sound like they are part of the unified command that the government of Vanuatu is trying set up, so they are making assumptions at this point. The government will start to exert its authority as this goes on, and the outcome won't be good. Even if things aren't moving at a pace you or I might like to see, having everyone with resources around the same table will lead to a better outcome in the long run.

I've been following the Vanuatu updates on reliefweb. Of course, they are being posted by many sources (NGOs, UN, other governments, as well as Vanuatu). This one is particularly telling; communications continue to be a significant problem:

Vanuatu - TSF executes primary phases of emergency operations
Quoting sar2401:
So true. It seems like some studies go behind a paywall because one or more of the sponsors try to recover some of their costs with the paywall. I don't know how much they get but I guess it's enough to keep doing such things. The problem is that "civilians" like you and me don't get to see the study until long after its made public. The paywall makes sure that the details stay within the academic community, where the institutions subscribe instead of individuals. There's been a movement afoot for a while to get any study paid for primarily with taxpayer dollars out from behind any paywall. That and five bucks will buy me a cup of regular coffee at Starbucks. :-)

And $25 will buy me a WAAAGH!!!!!!!
:D :D
88.0F/31.11C here today, 85.9F/29.94C now, Forecast tomorrow is 80F/26.67C..
180. beell
Anyway, I don't think it's a wise idea to put much stock in development potential of an MCS/tropical wave based on a single parameter.

Vertical velocity
Mean zonal wind along the African Easterly Jet axis
TPW
Relative vorticity
etc...

Inclusion of areal coverage of cold cloud tops can go in there with on-continent lightning as well.

time to eat
Hmmm. Interesting. What do you think of this???? How many think that is a modoki el nino??? Also look closer near Africa in that 7-day change, and anomaly chart. Warming.
Quoting 182. 62901IL:






dude
173. Webberweather53

I will say this though.On July 4th we had 45mph wind gust thanks to Arthur.If he had moved 50-75 more miles to the west then our 4th of July plans would have been over.Same for Cristobal if the sun of a gun took that turn into Miami as a upper end cat 4 like what some models were showing then 2014 would't be so looked down upon on this blog as another inactive season.It would have been remember just like 1992 and if those two storms would have taken the worst case scenario 2014 would have likely been one of the most expensive hurricanes season on record.But thank to Captain Trough Save the U.S we were spared yet again for another year.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Saw this article in the Guardian last week, but with everything going on with all the cyclones, I didn't post it. Very cool look into the urban explorations of a fellow named Adriano Sampaio.

The river hunter of São Paulo – a life devoted to finding its lost waterways
Many paulistanos are facing dry taps, yet there is plenty of water to go around in São Paulo. In the second part of our series on the struggling megacity, we meet the urban explorer who knows all of its hidden rivers and springs

River hunter Adriano Sampaio at a water source in Homero Silva park in São Paulo’s Pompéia neighbourhood. Photograph: Christian Tragni

Claire Rigby in São Paulo
Wednesday 11 March 2015 09.10 EDT

"News of São Paulo’s water crisis has, by now, spread far and wide. But although the word “seca” (drought) is much in use, and though a severe lack of rain is one of the many factors in play, when it comes to actual shortage of water, the truth – as with almost everything else in this sprawling metropolis – is that it’s complicated.

There’s a wealth of water in São Paulo: it’s just not always in the right places. As if to drive the point home, the late-afternoon rain that drenches the city most days in summer has been rare this year; yet during one recent, torrential storm, half the rain expected for the entire month of February fell in the space of just a few hours
." Read more
Parts of that story could also apply to California. There's still lots of water available in the aquifer but anything above ground gets diverted into concrete lined storm channels and then out to sea. It does help prevent floods in the short term but water always finds its own level, so it just makes a new channel somewhere away from the flood control channels, and the aquifer doesn't get recharged. Eventually, it just runs out. The article also makes a good point about what has to be done to get more water in Sao Paulo. The government likes big public works projects since it's a way to redistribute income through graft and corruption. It really doesn't matter that this guy might have a good idea. There's no chance you can employ all your cousins on a project, so it won't happen. Sometimes, we get what we deserve. :-(
Quoting 166. sar2401:

Thanks for all your updates Barb. I'm starting to get a little nervous reading some of these tweets. It seems like the NGO's are starting to run their own operation, some of which is probably overlapping with what the government and other nations are trying to coordinate. I know they are seeing what they think is an unmet need but it also doesn't sound like they are part of the unified command that the government of Vanuatu is trying set up, so they are making assumptions at this point. The government will start to exert its authority as this goes on, and the outcome won't be good. Even if things aren't moving at a pace you or I might like to see, having everyone with resources around the same table will lead to a better outcome in the long run.

Hi Sar, from an article I've added to this post:
How do governments get response assets to remote communities that might be cut off and isolated for days or longer? And who is responsible?
These are legitimate questions. In past decades it tended to be the case that governments and their emergency management agencies served the community and were perceived to be there to help when things went wrong and disasters struck.
In reality, as the world becomes a more developed and complicated place, the take-home message is that we need a shared responsibility for disaster planning, response and recovery – a responsibility shared between individuals and their families, communities and our governments and emergency services.
With limited emergency resources available to governments and their agencies, increasingly it is unreasonable to expect our governments to be completely there for us. This is the case with the survivors of Cyclone Pam now as they begin to put their lives and communities back together while waiting for government and the international community to do their part.

Cyclone Pam shows why more people means more havoc
The Conversation, Dale Dominey-Howes, Associate Professor in Natural Disaster Geography at University of Sydney, 16 March 2015, 6.01am GMT
...................................
But now I'm really gone for this night (what's the emoticon for "being tired"?)
Quoting 180. beell:

Anyway, I don't think it's a wise idea to put much stock in development potential of an MCS/tropical wave based on a single parameter.

Vertical velocity
Mean zonal wind along the African Easterly Jet axis
TPW
Relative vorticity
etc...

Inclusion of areal coverage of cold cloud tops can go in there with on-continent lightning as well.

time to eat

I had just typed up a different response when I saw this post...

But can their work shed light on which ones may have a better chance of 'making it'? Agree that it's just one parameter, but perhaps it's more like another piece to the puzzle?

Anywho, enjoy your dinner :)
Quoting 186. barbamz:


Hi Sar, from an article I've added to this post:
How do governments get response assets to remote communities that might be cut off and isolated for days or longer? And who is responsible?
These are legitimate questions. In past decades it tended to be the case that governments and their emergency management agencies served the community and were perceived to be there to help when things went wrong and disasters struck.
In reality, as the world becomes a more developed and complicated place, the take-home message is that we need a shared responsibility for disaster planning, response and recovery – a responsibility shared between individuals and their families, communities and our governments and emergency services.
With limited emergency resources available to governments and their agencies, increasingly it is unreasonable to expect our governments to be completely there for us. This is the case with the survivors of Cyclone Pam now as they begin to put their lives and communities back together while waiting for government and the international community to do their part.

Cyclone Pam shows why more people means more havoc
The Conversation, Dale Dominey-Howes, Associate Professor in Natural Disaster Geography at University of Sydney, 16 March 2015, 6.01am GMT
...................................
But now I'm really gone for this night (what's the emoticon for "being tired"?)

I don't know an emoticon for that, but...

Quoting 179. PedleyCA:

88.0F/31.11C here today, 85.9F/29.94C now, Forecast tomorrow is 80F/26.67C..

Nice to hear that you are about to be cooling off a bit Ped, after those early Feb heat waves you have been enduring.
Best stock up on water barrels for the warmer summer season, not too far away now.
Quoting 179. PedleyCA:

88.0F/31.11C here today, 85.9F/29.94C now, Forecast tomorrow is 80F/26.67C..

Hit 84 here today, tomorrow is forecast for a high of 82. Into the 70s after that, though.
Quoting LAbonbon:

I've been following the Vanuatu updates on reliefweb. Of course, they are being posted by many sources (NGOs, UN, other governments, as well as Vanuatu). This one is particularly telling; communications continue to be a significant problem:

Vanuatu - TSF executes primary phases of emergency operations
It sounds like TSF is working within the government disaster management framework, and that's how it should be. That being said, there was a lot of talk about establishing a sat com network between the islands when I was there in 2001. As I recall, Vanuatu received a grant to make this happen. Obviously, it never did. Communications between the islands and back to the government in Port Vila weren't good on good days let alone after a cat 5 cyclone. Setting up a satellite telephone is not difficult. Setting up a more reliable HF radio system is not difficult. It just takes some money and determination from those in charge to do so. I'm hoping that Pam may provide the impetus to make this happen, but the exact same problems occur every time a cyclone affects Vanuatu - it's just worse this time.
Quoting 80. Neapolitan:

For those of you who like your weather changeable, check out this forecast for Broken Bow, NE:


WOW!! in my Jasoniscoolman voice. Btw I haven't seen Jason on here lately. Hope everything is alright with him. Probably just taking a break from the blog and getting primed for hurricane season.
Quoting 109. LAbonbon:

"Vaculík argues that flying cars will reduce traffic congestion, as the vehicles would be spread in different “layers” of airspace."

Kind of like the movie 'Fifth Element'.

These might be cooler than jetpacks...


People can barely handle driving in two dimensions. How does giving these texting/drinking/raging/distracted drivers the ability to fly even remotely seem like a good idea?

If it was all automated, no problem. Otherwise, it will be a good population reduction measure. :P
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
WOW!! in my Jasoniscoolman voice. Btw I haven't seen Jason on here lately. Hope everything is alright with him. Probably just taking a break from the blog and getting primed for hurricane season.


I suspect a lot of our regulars will pop up here and there in the next few weeks. I might be more laxed on posting this year, but I'll be on storm2k for sure.
Quoting 182. 62901IL:


OH SHIT!!!!!!!!



And Today's post of the day goes to 62901IL....
Cyclone Nathan is currently being affected by moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear, limiting convective organization. Over the next day, the upper-level environment is expected to become more favorable as anticyclonic flow develops aloft. A favorable environment coupled with the small size of the system may allow it to undergo rapid intensification; contrast this with Pam, which only steadily intensified due to its large size (which also contributed to the frequent bouts of dry air entrainment). The GFS deepens Nathan below 940 millibars, while the ECMWF deepens the cyclone into the mid-960s. This will definitely be something residents along the coastline of northern Queensland should watch.

Quoting barbamz:

Hi Sar, from an article I've added to this post:
How do governments get response assets to remote communities that might be cut off and isolated for days or longer? And who is responsible?
These are legitimate questions. In past decades it tended to be the case that governments and their emergency management agencies served the community and were perceived to be there to help when things went wrong and disasters struck.
In reality, as the world becomes a more developed and complicated place, the take-home message is that we need a shared responsibility for disaster planning, response and recovery – a responsibility shared between individuals and their families, communities and our governments and emergency services.
With limited emergency resources available to governments and their agencies, increasingly it is unreasonable to expect our governments to be completely there for us. This is the case with the survivors of Cyclone Pam now as they begin to put their lives and communities back together while waiting for government and the international community to do their part.

Cyclone Pam shows why more people means more havoc
The Conversation, Dale Dominey-Howes, Associate Professor in Natural Disaster Geography at University of Sydney, 16 March 2015, 6.01am GMT
...................................
But now I'm really gone for this night (what's the emoticon for "being tired"?)
I like Bonnie's picture. I have actually passed out in front a computer a few times. I also learned how to sleep standing up. What great skills to have. :-)

I agree with what you wrote when it comes to sharing what we have with our immediate neighbors. I'd never wait around for the government to show up and do something. Flying supplies and a doctor to an out island is a different matter. There are only so many tarmac spaces available at these small airports. Some airports will probably see more traffic in the next couple of days than they will in a typical month. Coordinating air supplies and landings is complicated, and I can assure you that none of the governments supplying aircraft want lone wolves flying around running their own relief operation. At times like this, it's easy to let the emotion of the moment overwhelm what should be time for some ongoing planning involving everyone that has resources to share. Operations that start wrong don't get better - they get much worse. I'm going to hate reading there are supplies on one island that aren't needed while another island needs them. Unfortunately, this is exactly what's going to happen without better coordination.
Quoting 193. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WOW!! in my Jasoniscoolman voice. Btw I haven't seen Jason on here lately. Hope everything is alright with him. Probably just taking a break from the blog and getting primed for hurricane season.
last activity 17 days ago according to his blog anyway
BB - Before your articles sometimes there is a ! or * or ** or ***. What does that mean?

I tried to read the density of lithium storage materials has been increased in science daily and that went a little over my head...

Quoting Xyrus2000:


People can barely handle driving in two dimensions. How does giving these texting/drinking/raging/distracted drivers the ability to fly even remotely seem like a good idea?

If it was all automated, no problem. Otherwise, it will be a good population reduction measure. :P
I've been waiting for my flying car since I first remember reading about one in a 1954 Popular Mechanics. Last I checked, there's still not one on my doorstep. Piper was driven into bankruptcy in 1995 over product liability issues, and that's using planes that are certified by the FAA and being flown by FAA licensed pilots. Imagine if half the people in town were able to jump into their flying car for one more trip to the liquor store that night. It doesn't matter how automated they make a system. Automation can't overcome stupid. I'm afraid my flying car is never going to show up... ;-)
Got this off of of flhurricane website for 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4

Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3. Just out there for anyone who haven't made their predictions yet.
How many people are keeping a log of hurricane predictions this year?
Compare MDR.
Quoting 205. Dakster:

How many people are keeping a log of hurricane predictions this year?


Max has that job.
tigger...we know u are young...but you don't need to keep posting that everyday...it's not going to get you a hurricane anytime soon!
Quoting 205. Dakster:

How many people are keeping a log of hurricane predictions this year?


I was,but I've been so busy with school work. Well I've still got time. I'll just do it after May 22 when I'm out of school.
Quoting 207. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Max has that job.


The one with the simple nick or the one with the more complicated nick?
Quoting 210. Dakster:



The one with the simple nick or the one with the more complicated nick?

Link

Scorecard
I guess you could say it was a pretty nice day at Sebastian Inlet
Quoting 212. wxgeek723:
I guess you could say it was a pretty nice day at Sebastian Inlet


90 Saturday, 90 Sunday and 88 today here in Longwood.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


90 Saturday, 90 Sunday and 88 today here in Longwood.


Earlier you said it was 90 in Longwood today.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Earlier you said it was 90 in Longwood today.


My bad. You said it was yesterday.
Doing some research here and found this which is why it is so hard to predict landfall location along Florida's west coast, it's predicting when the turn will happen:

After passing midway between Key West and the Dry Tortugas, Tropical Storm Marco adopted a steady northward track and quickly intensified, reaching peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) on October 11, while still southwest of Englewood, Florida. The center of the storm continued on its off-shore parallel for another six hours after reaching its peak intensity, until it reached a position about six mi (10 km) west of Bradenton Beach; although the center of the storm remained offshore, much of its circulation was over land.[2] Initially the storm still was forecast to move ashore between Fort Myers and Sarasota.[4] However, the cyclone continued its northward trajectory, the center remaining offshore, and it weakened to a tropical depression prior to making landfall near Cedar Key early on October 12.[2][5]

After landfall, the cyclone accelerated in forward speed northward, weakening in intensity, and, by 1200 UTC on October 12, Marco became an extra-tropical cyclone. It turned to the northeast and east through South Carolina, following behind Hurricane Lili to its northeast.[3] For a time, the system's proximity to Lili resulted in hints of the Fujiwhara effect, in which two tropical cyclone appear to rotate around each other.[6] The cold front that absorbed the weakening low was to the storm's north on October 13,[2] though moisture from the remnants of Marco dropped heavy rainfall across the southeast United States for another day.[3]

How many actually though Charley was going to turn early and hit Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area or that the trough was going to outrun Elena and force it to stall and head back to the west?
I make my predictions in late April.
216...If you are under a Hurricane Warning, prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
Quoting 216. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Doing some research here and found this which is why it is so hard to predict landfall location along Florida's west coast, it's predicting when the turn will happen:

After passing midway between Key West and the Dry Tortugas, Tropical Storm Marco adopted a steady northward track and quickly intensified, reaching peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) on October 11, while still southwest of Englewood, Florida. The center of the storm continued on its off-shore parallel for another six hours after reaching its peak intensity, until it reached a position about six mi (10 km) west of Bradenton Beach; although the center of the storm remained offshore, much of its circulation was over land.[2] Initially the storm still was forecast to move ashore between Fort Myers and Sarasota.[4] However, the cyclone continued its northward trajectory, the center remaining offshore, and it weakened to a tropical depression prior to making landfall near Cedar Key early on October 12.[2][5]

After landfall, the cyclone accelerated in forward speed northward, weakening in intensity, and, by 1200 UTC on October 12, Marco became an extra-tropical cyclone. It turned to the northeast and east through South Carolina, following behind Hurricane Lili to its northeast.[3] For a time, the system's proximity to Lili resulted in hints of the Fujiwhara effect, in which two tropical cyclone appear to rotate around each other.[6] The cold front that absorbed the weakening low was to the storm's north on October 13,[2] though moisture from the remnants of Marco dropped heavy rainfall across the southeast United States for another day.[3]

How many actually though Charley was going to turn early and hit Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area or that the trough was going to outrun Elena and force it to stall and head back to the west?


In only my 15 years of living near Cedar Key, preparing for storms is always hard. Debby went everywhere, Andrea wasn't originally forcast to hit here, and 2004 was of course hectic. Claudette in 2009 was the weirdest though in terms of formation and I'd have to mention Fay as a nerve wracker
Quoting 155. LAbonbon:


far too early
Quoting 141. wunderkidcayman:


OMG!!!!!
Your still taking the models for gospel!!!
What part of this you do not get
This time of year the Nino models are CRAP

Why you love these models so much
They are not the Brazilian Bikini models you know LOL!!!
Especially the CFS it's like you wanna marry CFS lol


Give it up you ain't gettin no active season.
Quoting 215. jrweatherman:


My bad. You said it was yesterday.


Too many personal pan pizza's?
This is the hottest March I can remember. Maybe Grother has seen hotter as he is more seasoned than me.

Orlando
Quoting 214. jrweatherman:



Earlier you said it was 90 in Longwood today.

Scott, when there are modoki el nino nino's present, does noaa classify them as traditional el nino's,or modoki??? During the last one, did they declare it as modoki, when the conditions were present???
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:

This is the hottest March I can remember. Maybe Grother has seen hotter as he is more seasoned than me.

Orlando


Scott, when modoki el nino conditions are present, does noaa declare them as modoki, or just a traditional el nino???
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:

This is the hottest March I can remember. Maybe Grother has seen hotter as he is more seasoned than me.

Orlando



Yes, it has been hotter. There were a number of times in the late 70's it was in the 90's in February. But this is a long stretch of very hot weather.

Although I do remember when I was younger, we had snow until April. Oh, wait. That was in Norway.
Quoting 225. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Scott, when modoki el nino conditions are present, does noaa declare them as modoki, or just a traditional el nino???


Hi Tigger, right now we have a modoki El-Nino but should go to a traditional look in May.
Lowercal -
You know its bad when the DESERT flower burns up....
231. emguy
Quoting 216. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Doing some research here and found this which is why it is so hard to predict landfall location along Florida's west coast, it's predicting when the turn will happen:

After passing midway between Key West and the Dry Tortugas, Tropical Storm Marco adopted a steady northward track and quickly intensified, reaching peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) on October 11, while still southwest of Englewood, Florida. The center of the storm continued on its off-shore parallel for another six hours after reaching its peak intensity, until it reached a position about six mi (10 km) west of Bradenton Beach; although the center of the storm remained offshore, much of its circulation was over land.[2] Initially the storm still was forecast to move ashore between Fort Myers and Sarasota.[4] However, the cyclone continued its northward trajectory, the center remaining offshore, and it weakened to a tropical depression prior to making landfall near Cedar Key early on October 12.[2][5]

After landfall, the cyclone accelerated in forward speed northward, weakening in intensity, and, by 1200 UTC on October 12, Marco became an extra-tropical cyclone. It turned to the northeast and east through South Carolina, following behind Hurricane Lili to its northeast.[3] For a time, the system's proximity to Lili resulted in hints of the Fujiwhara effect, in which two tropical cyclone appear to rotate around each other.[6] The cold front that absorbed the weakening low was to the storm's north on October 13,[2] though moisture from the remnants of Marco dropped heavy rainfall across the southeast United States for another day.[3]

How many actually though Charley was going to turn early and hit Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area or that the trough was going to outrun Elena and force it to stall and head back to the west?


Another solid example was Gabrielle in 2001. There are others...and Marco was a weird one...as I've always noticed most paralleling gulf goat Florida storms tend to cut to the cost earlier and lower along the peninsula that expected.
I took this picture today at noon. The clouds are weak and undeveloped. Not uncommon because it's still march...

BUT what about the persisting SAL! It's been dusty for weeks!! Not usual for march!

Might be a good thing that there is no Modoki El Nino coming... I just learned today that there is such a thing as a La Nina Modoki too.
Quoting 233. Dakster:

Might be a good thing that there is no Modoki El Nino coming... I just learned today that there is such a thing as a La Nina Modoki too.


A traditional EL NINO is not good as well, we will become a desert again during what is supposed to be the rainy season lol...
Quoting 234. CaribBoy:



A traditional EL NINO is not good as well, we will become a desert again...


Gotta take what you can get. Is it better to be dry or get hit by multiple hurricanes (potentially). IDK - it was always a tough choice. Obviously I liked rain without the wind, but sometimes mother nature messes up my order.

Up here in AK we had record warm temps and low snowfall amounts... So it isn't like I am not in the same boat as you are in. I used to be, but I am not in South FLA at the moment.
Quoting 227. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Tigger, right now we have a modoki El-Nino but should go to a traditional look in May.

Yeah i was wondering,because this looks nothing like a traditional el nino, but more like a modoki one. Taking it's time though. This is actually my first el nino ever.
Just remember, Andrew was in a Modoki year... That didn't go so well for South Florida. That was more like an El Pendejo year for South Florida...
Quoting 237. Dakster:

Just remember, Andrew was in a Modoki year... That didn't go so well for South Florida. That was more like an El Pendejo year for South Florida...

The idea that Andrew formed during an El Nino is actually a popularly-used myth. Although El Nino conditions did exist to start 1992, they rapidly transitioned to cool Neutral and La Nina conditions by August:

Quoting 237. Dakster:

Just remember, Andrew was in a Modoki year... That didn't go so well for South Florida. That was more like an El Pendejo year for South Florida...
Some may not have realized that Andrew caused an environmental disaster.

Restoration, Creation, and Recovery
Effects of Hurricane Andrew (1992) on Wetlands in Southern Florida and Louisiana

By
John K. Lovelace, U.S. Geological Survey

Benjamin F. McPherson, U.S. Geological Survey

In the marine environment, the major effects of the hurricane were changes in nearshore water quality, patches of intense bottom scouring, and beach overwash. Dramatically increased turbidity persisted in some areas for at least 30 days, particularly in western Biscayne Bay where mangrove peat soils continued to break down and enter the water. In northeastern Florida Bay, at the southern edge of the affected area, concentrations of ammonia, dissolved phosphate, and dissolved organic carbon increased dramatically. Phytoplankton (microscopic drifting aquatic plants) blooms added to the increased turbidity and, combined with low dissolved-oxygen concentrations, could have had severe effects on fish and invertebrate populations. In addition, fuel from hundreds of damaged boats and marina fuel tanks in Biscayne Bay continued to discharge into the water for at least 27 days after the hurricane had passed (Davis and others, 1994).

In the Atchafalaya River Basin, an estimated 182 million freshwater fish perished because of the resuspension of anaerobic bottom materials in the water column (fig. 61). Most of the fish probably died during the first 24 hours after the storm as toxic hydrogen sulfide was released from bottom sediments, and decaying organic matter consumed dissolved oxygen, causing fish to asphyxiate (Gary Tilyou, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, oral commun., 1993). After the storm, U.S. Geological Survey personnel measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations of less than 1 mg/L throughout most of the basin, in an area extending northward more than 60 miles from the coast (Charles Demas, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun., 1993). Dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the upper water column of larger water bodies in the Atchafalaya River Basin generally range from 3 to 6 mg/L during summer months (Dennis K. Demecheck, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun., 1994). During the 2 weeks following the hurricane, fishkills were caused primarily by the movement of water containing low concentrations of dissolved oxygen into previously unaffected water (Gary Tilyou, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, oral commun., 1993). The value of freshwater fish killed was about $160 million, most of which was attributed to the estimated 29,000 paddlefish that died. (The paddlefish is an endangered species and its valuation is based on the $2,500 per-fish fine for killing paddlefish.) Estimates of the number of other species killed (in millions) include shad, 100; bream, 23; crappie, 7; largemouth bass, 5; fresh-water drum, 11; buffalo, 12; catfish, 11; and carp, 1 (Harry Blanchet, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, oral commun., 1993).

Contrary to popular belief Andrew also brought a significant storm surge along Biscayne Bay.



240. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:
I took this picture today at noon. The clouds are weak and undeveloped. Not uncommon because it's still march...

BUT what about the persisting SAL! It's been dusty for weeks!! Not usual for march!


Hey Caribboy,sal, what sal?Down here we've only just had our first dusty day and its unusually wet around our hilly areas.
Quoting 238. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The idea that Andrew formed during an El Nino is actually a popularly-used myth. Although El Nino conditions did exist to start 1992, they rapidly transitioned to cool Neutral and La Nina conditions by August:


Cody is right and it can be seen on the Oceanic Nino Index graph. Link
Quoting 205. Dakster:

How many people are keeping a log of hurricane predictions this year?


This boy right here keeps everything
Quoting 219. JrWeathermanFL:



In only my 15 years of living near Cedar Key, preparing for storms is always hard. Debby went everywhere, Andrea wasn't originally forcast to hit here, and 2004 was of course hectic. Claudette in 2009 was the weirdest though in terms of formation and I'd have to mention Fay as a nerve wracker

Yes, Debby was a miserable fail for many models and forecasters. Some people just crawled under rocks after that.

And I remember how Fay was a big worry for Florida. I think people were still mentally recovering from 04-05 and it was unnerving. At one point I remember the western part of the cone of uncertainty showed a possibility of getting into the Gulf, and the meteorologist on TV was saying if it did the Eastern Gulf, it could have a chance to become a stronger hurricane. That was concerning for us, as we were in the process of going on a week plus vacation to Wisconsin. There was so much media coverage of that one, even before it was named. Remember they called it the "Joker?"
Trans Nino Index notice how the amplitude of the mean wave gets larger as we get into recent time.




Regression of global SST anomalies with TNI for 1900-1976 in °C. Values exceeding 0.10°C are hatched and less than -0.10°C are stippled. The contours are ±0.05°C, ±0.10°C, ±0.15°C, etc. (The TNI is defined and discussed below.)

Indices, statistics, and selected figures from

Indices of El Niño Evolution
Kevin E. Trenberth¹, and David P. Stepaniak¹

J. Climate, 14, 1697-1701.

Abstract
To characterize the nature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different regions of the Pacific have been used. We suggest that an optimal characterization of both the distinct character and the evolution of each El Niño or La Niña event requires at least two indices: (i) SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (referred to as N3.4), and (ii) a new index we call the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), which is given by the difference in normalized anomalies of SST between Niño 1+2 and Niño 4 regions. The first index can be thought of as the mean SST throughout the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline and the second index is the gradient in SST across the same region. Consequently they are approximately orthogonal. TNI leads N3.4 by 3 to 12 months prior to the climate shift in 1976/77 and also follows N3.4 but with opposite sign 3 to 12 months later. However, after the 1976/77 shift, the sign of the TNI leads and lags are reversed.

SST Data

For the period January 1871 to October 1981 we employed the HADISST data set developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, The Meteorological Office, United Kingdom. HADISST may be obtained (under a proprietary, though at no cost, licensed agreement) through the Data Support Section (DSS) of the Scientific Computing Division (SCD) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (see ds277.3). The HADISST data set represents monthly total SSTs archived on a 1°x1° 360x180 grid beginning at 0.5°E and 89.5°N. The precursor of HADISST is GISST2.3b – GISST2.3b is discussed at length by Hurrell and Trenberth (1999) (see references below).
For the period November 1981 to September 2000² we employed the optimum interpolation (OI) analyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Reynolds and Smith 1994, see also Hurrell and Trenberth 1999). The NCEP OI data set represents monthly total SSTs archived on a 1°x1° 360x180 grid beginning at 179.5°W and 89.5°S, and may be obtained from DSS at NCAR (see ds277.0).

We reordered the HADISST and NCEP data to a common 1°x1° grid beginning at 0.5°E and 89.5°S, which allows for straight forward calculation of area averages across the International Dateline and the Equator. All calculations reported here were carried out at full spatial (1°x1°) and temporal (monthly) resolution.

Geographic Extent of Currently Defined Niño Regions

The following table lists the geographic extent of Niño regions described in the NCEP Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (and also at the NCEP CPC web site Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. (What is reported as Niño 3.5 at the CPC website is a typo – it should read Niño 3.4) The outlines of the Niño 1+2, 3.4 and 4 regions are shown in the figure at the top of this web page.

Niño Longitude Latitude
1+2 90°W-80°W 10°S-0°
3 150°W-90°W 5°S-5°N
3.4 170°W-120°W 5°S-5°N
4 160°E-150°W 5°S-5°N

Standard Deviations of Raw and Smoothed Time Series

The standard deviations listed below are for area-averaged anomalies over the climatological period 1950-1979, before (`Raw'), and after a 5-month running mean is applied ('Smoothed'). (The corresponding means are for all practical purposes identically zero.)



Standard Deviation (°C)
Niño Raw Smoothed
1+2 0.917 0.822
3.4 0.745 0.697
4 0.567 0.534

TNI (Trans-Niño Index)

Computational Recipe:
Compute area averaged total SST from Niño 1+2 region.
Compute area averaged total SST from Niño 4 region.
Compute monthly climatologies (1950-1979) for area averaged total SST from Niño 1+2 region, and Niño 4 region, and subtract climatologies from area averaged total SST time series to obtain anomalies.
Normalize each time series of anomalies by their respective standard deviations over the climatological period 1950-1979.
Define the raw TNI as Niño 1+2 normalized anomalies minus Niño 4 normalized anomalies.
Smooth the raw TNI with a 5-month running mean.
Normalize the smoothed TNI by its standard deviation over the climatological period 1950-1979. (The smoothed TNI has a standard deviation of 0.818 over the climatological period 1950-1979.)
Thus, TNI = (Niño 1+2N - Niño 4N) S,N where N indicates normalized and S smoothed.

Link
Quoting 225. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Scott, when modoki el nino conditions are present, does noaa declare them as modoki, or just a traditional el nino???


I always assumed because Modiki's are a relatively new discovery, El Nino events were never classified as such.

That and putting "Modiki" in front of El Nino would be confusing anyway. We're nerds with no lives. Most people don't speak weather l33t speak.
Quoting 208. GeoffreyWPB:

tigger...we know u are young...but you don't need to keep posting that everyday...it's not going to get you a hurricane anytime soon!


Not any more than Satanic incantations will, anyway. ;)
Quoting 238. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The idea that Andrew formed during an El Nino is actually a popularly-used myth. Although El Nino conditions did exist to start 1992, they rapidly transitioned to cool Neutral and La Nina conditions by August:




I'd examine other parameters. The tropics were not favorable for tropical cyclones during August and September of 1992, with even Andrew not attaining hurricane status until it was above 20N.

I don't think sea surface temperature tells the whole story.
Quoting 243. opal92nwf:


Yes, Debby was a miserable fail for many models and forecasters. Some people just crawled under rocks after that.

And I remember how Fay was a big worry for Florida. I think people were still mentally recovering from 04-05 and it was unnerving. At one point I remember the western part of the cone of uncertainty showed a possibility of getting into the Gulf, and the meteorologist on TV was saying if it did the Eastern Gulf, it could have a chance to become a stronger hurricane. That was concerning for us, as we were in the process of going on a week plus vacation to Wisconsin. There was so much media coverage of that one, even before it was named. Remember they called it the "Joker?"


Then Gustav and Ike did become powerful over the Gulf during the next two weeks. I still remember the evacuations for only like one to two parishes down. The bulletin for that came on TV about two days before its landfall. It was a bit surprising for me at the time since Katrina and Rita were too far east and west of me, respectively, not to mention I'm pretty far inland, about 80 miles from the coast. We don't get that kind of thing a lot here.

The next day my dad and grandmother were out getting supplies while Gustav was still a day away. We had a rainband come through in an old shopping district where my dad used to work; I'd say gusts exceeded 30 mph in that band. It was pretty awesome.

When are we gonna see another year like that? I doubt it'll be this year, even if we end up getting a good 500 mb configuration with a westward-propelling ridge over the US east coast.
Quoting 247. KoritheMan:



I'd be interested in examining other parameters. The tropics were not favorable for tropical cyclones during August and September of 1992, with even Andrew not attaining hurricane status until it was above 20N.

I don't think sea surface temperature tells the whole story.
I think sea surface temperatures were definitely a factor, not saying that wind shear, SAL and the end of the -AMO weren't part of the reason, but sst were the biggest factor imo. I mean these anomalies look cold from '92-'94.



Annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly maps for 1992 - 2010. The anomalies are the annual mean SST minus the 1992 - 2010 mean SST. The underlying data are derived by thermal remote sensing, and are independent of (but highly consistent with) SST information obtained from ocean surface measurements. The remotely sensed SST have been spatio-temporally completed (in-filled) using optimal interpolation, before averaging from daily fields to the annual maps shown here. Full details of the data set are given in the paper linked below, and the full resolution (daily, 0.05 degree) data are freely available by registering at the UK Centre for Environmental Data Archival (see data link below). When using this image, please cite both the paper and dataset. This project is funded by the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative.

Merchant, C. J., Embury, O., Roberts-Jones, J., Fiedler, E., Bulgin, C. E., Corlett, G. K., Good, S., McLaren, A., Rayner, N., Morak-Bozzo, S. and Donlon, C. (2014), Sea surface temperature datasets for climate applications from Phase 1 of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI). Geoscience Data Journal. doi: 10.1002/gdj3.20

Merchant, C.J.; Embury, O.;Roberts-Jones, J.;Fiedler, E.;Bulgin, C.E.;Corlett, G.K.;Good, S.; McLaren, A.; Rayner, N. ; Donlon, C. ESA Sea Surface Temperature Climate Change Initiative (ESA SST CCI): Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) level 3 uncollated data (L3U) long-term product version 1.1. NERC Earth Observation Data Centre, 2014, 30th May 2014. Available from doi:10.5285/79229cee-71ab-48b6-b7d6-2fceccead938
Quoting 247. KoritheMan:



I'd be interested in examining other parameters. The tropics were not favorable for tropical cyclones during August and September of 1992, with even Andrew not attaining hurricane status until it was above 20N.

I don't think sea surface temperature tells the whole story.



Exactly. Vertical instability, wind shear, the MJO (can enhance thunderstorms depending on the situation, which was why there were 4 cyclones at once aka Pam, Olwyn, Bavi and Nathan), Kelvin waves, amount of dry air, ridges and troughs (though the last one's more about steering) are many other factors besides SSTs.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I always assumed because Modiki's are a relatively new discovery, El Nino events were never classified as such.

That and putting "Modiki" in front of El Nino would be confusing anyway. We're nerds with no lives. Most people don't speak weather l33t speak.


They should.
Quoting 245. KoritheMan:



I always assumed because Modiki's are a relatively new discovery, El Nino events were never classified as such.

That and putting "Modiki" in front of El Nino would be confusing anyway. We're nerds with no lives. Most people don't speak weather l33t speak.



Ain't that the truth. None of the other weather people from St. Louis (besides Dan Robinson) even pays attention to the tropics. Makes sense, but a true weather geek keeps an eye on ALL kinds of weather!
Quoting 249. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think sea surface temperatures were definitely a factor, not saying that wind shear, SAL and the end of the -AMO weren't part of the reason, but sst were the biggest factor imo. I mean these anomalies look cold from '92-'94.



Annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly maps for 1992 - 2010. The anomalies are the annual mean SST minus the 1992 - 2010 mean SST. The underlying data are derived by thermal remote sensing, and are independent of (but highly consistent with) SST information obtained from ocean surface measurements. The remotely sensed SST have been spatio-temporally completed (in-filled) using optimal interpolation, before averaging from daily fields to the annual maps shown here. Full details of the data set are given in the paper linked below, and the full resolution (daily, 0.05 degree) data are freely available by registering at the UK Centre for Environmental Data Archival (see data link below). When using this image, please cite both the paper and dataset. This project is funded by the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative.

Merchant, C. J., Embury, O., Roberts-Jones, J., Fiedler, E., Bulgin, C. E., Corlett, G. K., Good, S., McLaren, A., Rayner, N., Morak-Bozzo, S. and Donlon, C. (2014), Sea surface temperature datasets for climate applications from Phase 1 of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI). Geoscience Data Journal. doi: 10.1002/gdj3.20

Merchant, C.J.; Embury, O.;Roberts-Jones, J.;Fiedler, E.;Bulgin, C.E.;Corlett, G.K.;Good, S.; McLaren, A.; Rayner, N. ; Donlon, C. ESA Sea Surface Temperature Climate Change Initiative (ESA SST CCI): Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) level 3 uncollated data (L3U) long-term product version 1.1. NERC Earth Observation Data Centre, 2014, 30th May 2014. Available from doi:10.5285/79229cee-71ab-48b6-b7d6-2fceccead938


My bad. I meant equatorial SSTs. I was responding to Cody's post about the lack of an equatorial warm pool (El Nino) during the summer of 1992 apparently not doing much to promote development in the MDR/tropics.
Quoting 247. KoritheMan:



I'd examine other parameters. The tropics were not favorable for tropical cyclones during August and September of 1992, with even Andrew not attaining hurricane status until it was above 20N.

I don't think sea surface temperature tells the whole story.

I'm not arguing that conditions weren't unfavorable, I'm arguing there was no El Nino at the time.
It got to 84 here today! I don't want it to go back to the 50s tomorrow. It actually felt like middle of June here, and I'm starting to hear spring peepers though they came a tad bit later this year.
Personally, I think every season is like a snow flake or a fingerprint. No two are alike. There are sooooo many parameters that make a hurricane season and that is why we are having trouble with early storm number predictions.

Just think of the ones you know about. I get a list of at least a dozen things. We've had what looked like perfect years produce very few storms - we had the year of shear, and the year of dust...

While the broader atmospheric patterns give us a hint of what a season could look like, it is really nowhere near the whole picture. At least in my non-scientific opinion, but years of observation have noted.
Quoting 242. MaxWeather:


This boy right here keeps everything


I posted on your blog.... Thanks. I am glad you are keeping track!!!
Question, sea surface temps = hurricane intensity and probability? So we saw that in a bad cat 5 because of a deep pool of stored heat. So rapidly warming heat in the Atlantic means more probability for the same, except, is the heat as deep? Does that matter, or is shallow sea temps enough? I would like anyone's opinion.
259. emguy
Quoting 254. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not arguing that conditions weren't unfavorable, I'm arguing there was no El Nino at the time.


The atmosphere was recovering from that El Nino however. For all intense purposes...it was an El Nino hurricane season. The ocean temps are a Nino/Nina signature...but not the whole picture.
260. emguy
Quoting 247. KoritheMan:



I'd examine other parameters. The tropics were not favorable for tropical cyclones during August and September of 1992, with even Andrew not attaining hurricane status until it was above 20N.

I don't think sea surface temperature tells the whole story.


Hurricane Andrew spent the bulk of its Atlantic life trapped below a broad upper level low pressure system that imposed high sear on the system.....all the while embedded within an area of anomalous high pressure at the surface. At one point.. I believe the recon measured a central pressure of 1017 MB. They considered declassification but couldn't as it was still a closed system that met parameters. Andrew was a very special breed...a very tenacious low that just blossomed after clearing the days and days of highly unfavorable conditions...being that it remained a shallow system for so long allowed Andrew to gain limited lattitude....it just hung on long enough for favorable conditions. Most systems just don't survive long enough in such an environment.
Quoting 258. ATLsweather:

Question, sea surface temps = hurricane intensity and probability? So we saw that in a bad cat 5 because of a deep pool of stored heat. So rapidly warming heat in the Atlantic means more probability for the same, except, is the heat as deep? Does that matter, or is shallow sea temps enough? I would like anyone's opinion.


I can't think of any cases - or physical reason - where a Category 5 blossomed over warm waters that weren't deep at the subsurface. OHC starts becoming a bigger factor for hurricanes over Category 1/2 (I'd say they can go to roughly 90 kt, generally, without a lack of OHC becoming a limiting factor; this is somewhat complimented by a publication done by the NHC as well that documents the weakening of major hurricanes as they approach the Gulf Coast sans Charley, whose fast forward speed was negating the otherwise meager OHC).
Quoting 250. TimTheWxMan:




(though the last one's more about steering)


Is it, though?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY ONE (17U)
4:48 PM EST March 17 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category One (993 hPa) located at 14.9S 149.6E or 470 kilometers east northeast of Cairns and 470 kilometers east of Cooktownhas 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to continue to move slowly southwards overnight and then shift onto a westwards track, towards the north Queensland coast, during Wednesday morning.

The system should remain relatively weak until Wednesday morning, but is then likely to begin to intensify in a much more favorable environment, and this strengthening should continue up until landfall along the north Queensland coast.

GALES are not expected over coastal and island communities in the next 24 hours, however they may develop in the 24 to 48 hour period between Cape Melville and Cardwell, most likely late on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cardwell are specifically warned of the possibility of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea may rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take

measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is likely to develop on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 15.3S 149.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 15.5S 149.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 16.0S 147.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3) east of Cape Tribulation
72 HRS 16.1S 144.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2) Overland Queensland west of Cape Tribulation

Additional Information
===========================
Tropical Cyclone Nathan has continued to be affected by northerly vertical wind shear during today with convection being confined to the southwest flank of the low level center. Convection around the system has become more robust during the day with plenty of lightning being detected, however cloud tops remain relatively warm. Satellite-derived total precipitable water imagery indicates the vertical shear is strong enough to allow some drier air to infiltrate the system, leading to some weakening. An ASCAT pass at 2255 UTC displayed a compact, fairly symmetrical surface circulation, but with max winds only in the 40 to 45 knot range. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern with a low level center less than 0.5 degree from the strong temperature gradient. This gives a DT and MET of 3.0 with FT based on MET. Current intensity therefore set to 45 knots [cat 1].

The system has been tracking slowly to the south in the past 24 hours under the influence of a mid to upper level high situated near the Solomon Islands. From Wednesday morning, the cyclone is expected to come under the influence of an mid-level ridge developing over central Australian this feature will steer the cyclone to the west, towards the northern Queensland coast.

Models suggest the system will continue to encounter moderate shear provided by the final in the series of upper troughs moving over eastern Australia until Wednesday morning. Combined with marginal sea surface temperatures, this should lead to little change in strength until Wednesday. Following this, the environment appears likely to rapidly improve, becoming very favorable for intensification during the latter part of Wednesday, and conditions should remain favorable up until landfall along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for areas from Cape Melville to Cardwell


It's been very dry in C FL lately. For the first time in a while, I'm noticing heat stress on my grass. Hopefully we get some rain soon.


Tampa Bay area. The daily highs have been a few degrees higher than this for at least the past week. I'm not sure why local mets aren't increasing their forecast highs.
Good morning.

The Aussies have not declared El Nino officially yet but have El Nino watch alert.



Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warming

Issued on 17 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Nio in 2015.

In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi* straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.

International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Nio, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Nio thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Nio WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Nio thresholds by mid-year. An El Nio WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Nio forming in 2015%u2014double the normal likelihood of an event.

El Nio is often associated with below-average winter%u2013spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.



Link
A New World View
Top 10 Images from Raytheon%u2019s VIIRS Sensor
Link

New video from Oz Cyclone Chasers


ENSO Tracker remains at El Nino WATCH
Latest CFSv2 definitely shows a Strong El-Nino. Turns moderate in June or July then goes Strong in September. It really appears unlike last year that the Globe is in for one heck of year ranging from droughts, excessive heat, severe weather across FL, and extreme flooding in areas and one of those areas could be California come Fall.




WOW! Look at the consistency.
2 Models are over 2C. We didn't have this forecast from these models last year.
271. VR46L
Quoting 270. StormTrackerScott:

2 Models are over 2C. We didn't have this forecast from these models last year.


Can only mean one thing .....



Quoting 266. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area. The daily highs have been a few degrees higher than this for at least the past week. I'm not sure why local mets aren't increasing their forecast highs.
yeah I do notice they have pushed back those 70's temps back 5-6 days from the forecast. sure is a warm almost spring so far huh
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AN
ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT EAST COAST BEACHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
2 Models are over 2C. We didn't have this forecast from these models last year.


Thanks for the hourly update. Going back outside to watch the grass grow.
Good morning Scott. You didn't have to post the whole Aussie update as I did so earlier.You would have quoted my post and was better.
nathans.getting.angry
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:



the mid March update is out and the mean is near 1.7C


This could happen one day, maybe this year or maybe not. This is all a big guess this time of year, lets wait another month or so to see if this will materialize.
Quoting 264. tampabaymatt:



It's been very dry in C FL lately. For the first time in a while, I'm noticing heat stress on my grass. Hopefully we get some rain soon.


0.01 at my house for March with temps near 90 it seems like everyday so far this month. All of this heat is drying things out fast around here. We have to get some rain soon or brush fires will become a problem.
Quoting 272. LargoFl:

yeah I do notice they have pushed back those 70's temps back 5-6 days from the forecast. sure is a warm almost spring so far huh


One met last night said if this keeps up Orlando could have the warmest march ever since records started in 1880.

We need a break from this heat please!

Quoting 275. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning Scott. You didn't have to post the whole Aussie update as I did so earlier.You would have quoted my post and was better.


To be honest to didn't see as I just posted it and left for work. Heck it wasn't even 7am yet and I haven't has my ice coffee yet.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


0.01 at my house for March with temps near 90 it seems like everyday so far this month. All of this heat is drying things out fast around here. We have to get some rain soon or brush fires will become a problem.


I wish you would have been right in your forecast about all the rain we were supposed to get. Things are drying out fast.
The Number One Stunna is one this am. Good morning! Link
Good Morning All. Here is the short-term forecast for Conus today from WPC:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 17 2015 - 12Z Thu Mar 19 2015

***Colder weather arriving for much of the country***

***Unsettled weather to affect the Northwest U.S.***

***Scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern Plains***


After a few days of warm weather across much of the central and eastern
U.S., things will be changing on Tuesday as a strong cold front ushers in
a much colder air mass for the middle of the week. The surface high
behind the front will bring below normal temperatures by mid-March
standards, with highs in the 40s widespread from the Midwest to the
Mid-Atlantic region.

For the western U.S., a series of weak disturbances aloft and a surface
cold front working its way across the Intermountain West will generate
patchy areas of rain from the Pacific Northeast to the northern Rockies.
Given the lack of deep moisture with this system, rainfall amounts are
expected to be generally light with snow confined to the highest
elevations and north of the border in Canada.

Another area of precipitation worth mentioning will be moisture increasing
over Texas and New Mexico from a trough and upper level low situated over
Mexico. Significant rainfall is likely over central and eastern Texas by
Tuesday night and Wednesday as a wave of low pressure develops along the
cold front that passes through the eastern U.S., which will intersect the
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Hamrick

Quoting 281. jrweatherman:



I wish you would have been right in your forecast about all the rain we were supposed to get. Things are drying out fast.


The problem I think is becoming all of these extreme warm anomalies across the Gulf which is causing a ridge of high pressure to set up shop basically the same set up that is currently going on across California. You can clearly see what I am talking about below on this pic.

Quoting 239. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Some may not have realized that Andrew caused an environmental disaster.

Restoration, Creation, and Recovery
Effects of Hurricane Andrew (1992) on Wetlands in Southern Florida and Louisiana

By
John K. Lovelace, U.S. Geological Survey

Benjamin F. McPherson, U.S. Geological Survey

In the marine environment, the major effects of the hurricane were changes in nearshore water quality, patches of intense bottom scouring, and beach overwash. Dramatically increased turbidity persisted in some areas for at least 30 days, particularly in western Biscayne Bay where mangrove peat soils continued to break down and enter the water. In northeastern Florida Bay, at the southern edge of the affected area, concentrations of ammonia, dissolved phosphate, and dissolved organic carbon increased dramatically. Phytoplankton (microscopic drifting aquatic plants) blooms added to the increased turbidity and, combined with low dissolved-oxygen concentrations, could have had severe effects on fish and invertebrate populations. In addition, fuel from hundreds of damaged boats and marina fuel tanks in Biscayne Bay continued to discharge into the water for at least 27 days after the hurricane had passed (Davis and others, 1994).

In the Atchafalaya River Basin, an estimated 182 million freshwater fish perished because of the resuspension of anaerobic bottom materials in the water column (fig. 61). Most of the fish probably died during the first 24 hours after the storm as toxic hydrogen sulfide was released from bottom sediments, and decaying organic matter consumed dissolved oxygen, causing fish to asphyxiate (Gary Tilyou, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, oral commun., 1993). After the storm, U.S. Geological Survey personnel measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations of less than 1 mg/L throughout most of the basin, in an area extending northward more than 60 miles from the coast (Charles Demas, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun., 1993). Dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the upper water column of larger water bodies in the Atchafalaya River Basin generally range from 3 to 6 mg/L during summer months (Dennis K. Demecheck, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun., 1994). During the 2 weeks following the hurricane, fishkills were caused primarily by the movement of water containing low concentrations of dissolved oxygen into previously unaffected water (Gary Tilyou, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, oral commun., 1993). The value of freshwater fish killed was about $160 million, most of which was attributed to the estimated 29,000 paddlefish that died. (The paddlefish is an endangered species and its valuation is based on the $2,500 per-fish fine for killing paddlefish.) Estimates of the number of other species killed (in millions) include shad, 100; bream, 23; crappie, 7; largemouth bass, 5; fresh-water drum, 11; buffalo, 12; catfish, 11; and carp, 1 (Harry Blanchet, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, oral commun., 1993).

Contrary to popular belief Andrew also brought a significant storm surge along Biscayne Bay.




Yes in the short term it was a disaster, but it was good for the environment in the long run. Storms are naturally occurring cycles of the environment, and help to clean up pollution and natural silt deposits on our reefs and shorelines.
And no severe weather issues on the horizon at the moment from SPC in spite of the pending cold front dipping down into the mid-west later in the period this week:

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN A LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN U.S. PROMOTING SEVERAL CP FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND GENERALLY RESULT IN LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
Quoting 279. StormTrackerScott:



One met last night said if this keeps up Orlando could have the warmest march ever since records started in 1880.

We need a break from this heat please!


Warmest March in the last 135 yrs., wow that is really going back in time, and how long has Florida been around?
2 days of the SOI of atleast -35 now on the daily value. ESPI is up to .18 from -60 we few weeks ago. Contrary to what was said on here yesterday by a blogger the atmosphere is responding in all phases now to El-Nino.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 17 Mar 2015
Average for last 30 days -4.4
Average for last 90 days -7.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -35.9



And the latest on Vanuatu from TVOne/New Zealand:


At least 24 people are confirmed killed in Vanuatu following the destructive Cyclone Pam, with fears that total will grow as aid agencies reach isolated areas.

It's been four days since the tiny Pacific nation was smashed, with around 90% of buildings in the capital Port Vila damaged or destroyed.

On the southern island of Tanna, at least five people were killed, with locals saying the death toll would have been higher if the cyclone struck at night.

It's thought 80% of buildings on the island have been destroyed and 100% of crops.

With only five days of food left, residents were already planting new crops.

"We could not carry them so we had to drag them just inside the house that's been damaged," Harold Karisso told ONE News Pacific Correspondent Barbara Dreaver of a mother and grandmother that had been killed.

Alex Snary of World Vision said they desperately needed clean water, food relief and temporary shelter.

"These are the life sustaining elements we need to get in place, and we need to get them in a hurry," he said.

Save the Children's Vanuatu director Tom Skirrow said the logistical challenges were worse than for Super Typhoon Haiyan, which killed 7000 people in the Philippines in late 2013.

"The numbers are smaller but the percentage of the population that's been affected is much bigger."

nathan reminds me of a bit of e cen floridian storms. hovering over the bahamas makes the move west intensifies till landfall.
I'm still working out my forecast numbers should have it ready sometime between mid April to late May
But I think this year won't be very very active like 2005,2010-2012
But I also this year won't be very very dull either like 1997,2006,2009
just think 50 yrs ago orlando was just a bunch of trees now its full of dark roofs and concrete. expect even more heat records to fall
Quoting 287. NativeSun:

Warmest March in the last 135 yrs., wow that is really going back in time, and how long has Florida been around?


The local met said if again if it stays as warm as it was been the last 2 weeks then we may have a chance.
Quoting 291. wunderkidcayman:

I'm still working out my forecast numbers should have it ready sometime between mid April to late May
But I think this year won't be very very active like 2005,2010-2012
But I also this year won't be very very dull either like 1997,2006,2009



LOL. Keep dreaming!
295. VR46L
Quoting 290. islander101010:

nathan reminds me of a bit of e cen floridian storms. hovering over the bahamas makes the move west intensifies till landfall.


Hush now.... My bro is flying into Brisbane today !
Lol Scott stop dreaming about your super apocalyptic El Niño it's not gonna happen
297. VR46L
Quoting 291. wunderkidcayman:

I'm still working out my forecast numbers should have it ready sometime between mid April to late May
But I think this year won't be very very active like 2005,2010-2012
But I also this year won't be very very dull either like 1997,2006,2009



Waiting to see if its an intense Nino or a wishy -washy one like 2004 ?
The NWS headline for today. Note the relative position of the Conus jet well to the North allowing for the very warms temps today for most of the mid and southern tier of Conus before the next cold front tomorrow:

Above-normal temperatures will prevail across central U.S.

Temperatures will be well above-normal across much of the central Plains and Midwest on Monday, with highs in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will plummet sharply on Tuesday, however, as a cold front moves through. Meanwhile, rain is expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and Great Lakes, with more snow forecast for northern New England.


Quoting 292. islander101010:

just think 50 yrs ago orlando was just a bunch of trees now its full of dark roofs and concrete. expect even more heat records to fall


Except that the trend in temperature is the same regardless of rural and urban stations and UHI is adjusted for in the record and the airport station is about 11 miles outside the city center...
Looks like global temperature anomalies are really getting a boost from el nino/record SST

both the aussies and the japanese mets still say no el nino...here's the aus update for today

Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warming
Issued on 17 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.
In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi* straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.
International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.
The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.
Next update expected on 31 March 2015 | print version
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The problem I think is becoming all of these extreme warm anomalies across the Gulf which is causing a ridge of high pressure to set up shop basically the same set up that is currently going on across California. You can clearly see what I am talking about below on this pic.



Don't disagree at all. Also, we have to take long range modles with a grain of salt because they will always change.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
2 days of the SOI of atleast -35 now on the daily value. ESPI is up to .18 from -60 we few weeks ago. Contrary to what was said on here yesterday by a blogger the atmosphere is responding in all phases now to El-Nino.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 17 Mar 2015
Average for last 30 days -4.4
Average for last 90 days -7.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -35.9





Thanks for the hourly update Scott.
Quoting ricderr:
both the aussies and the japanese mets still say no el nino...here's the aus update for today

Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warming
Issued on 17 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.
In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi* straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.
International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.
The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.
Next update expected on 31 March 2015 | print version


Can you post link to Aussie nino thanks
El Nino is a Hoax, yada, yada, yada.....


: P
306. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'm still working out my forecast numbers should have it ready sometime between mid April to late May
But I think this year won't be very very active like 2005,2010-2012
But I also this year won't be very very dull either like 1997,2006,2009

??
Quoting Patrap:
El Nino is a Hoax, yada, yada, yada.....


: P


Lol yeah in a way this nino thing is becoming more of a joke
Quoting JRRP:

??


What that for

What not to understand in that
here you go kid



aussie enso update
MDR and east tropical Atlantic are very near, to average in terms of sst's, whereas the Gulf,especially, and Caribbean are above average. MDR and East Tropical Atlantic, are starting to catch up with their statistical averages.
No one is saying El Niño is a hoax.One thing is for sure most pros don't see this becoming A dooms day El Niño that will surpass 1997 in every which way.
Quoting 309. ricderr:

here you go kid



aussie enso update

Could you post Japan's.
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

No one is saying El Nino is a hoax.One thing is for sure most pros don't see this becoming A dooms day El Nino that will surpass 1997 in every which way.



Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 23h 23 hours ago
MJO at highest amplitude on record as of March 15. Daily MJO data available since June 1, 1974.


Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach Mar 11
Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis.


Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach Mar 11
February Pacific Decadal Oscillation the highest on record (back to 1900). Data from Univ. of Washington:


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 22h 22 hours ago
2014 vs 2015 equatorial subsurface thermal structure very similar. Already in a weak El Nino-- stronger event coming

Could's. you post Japans



japanese enso update
Strong signals from the tarot cards this AM.
Quoting 312. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Could you post Japan's.


Here is the JMA model below. Pretty much all models agree on atleast a moderate El-Nino this summer that could potentially go strong come late summer into fall. Good news is that next summer looks to be neutral or La-Nina.

Below is the exact breakdown for Nino 3.4.
2015/03 2015/04 2015/05 2015/06 2015/07 2015/08 2015/09
ENS 0.53 March 0.61 April 0.81 May 0.99 June 1.16 July 1.35 August 1.48 September

this was written last year but still applies today

About the warnings of a monster super El Nino coming to you this year
9 Replies
Summary: Today we have an example of America’s poor ability to process information. Weather reports become climate porn. Run for your lives, an El Nino comes! In fact, an El Nino appears likely in 2014-15. Perhaps a severe one, with substantial effects. But exaggerated warnings, often false, don’t help. Instead they dull our ability to assess and respond to dangers. This article describes the situation, with tips about distinguishing reliable sources from chaff.

This will be updated with additional links as the situation develops.
Quoting Drakoen:
Strong signals from the tarot cards this AM.


OMG
How many times or how many ways does the same thing need to be said?
Good Morning Everyone!

The result of Global Warming.

Quoting 319. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning Everyone!

The result of Global Warming.




This might be contributing to these record PDO values as well. The best match IMO to the overall weather pattern here in Central FL this year seems to be 1969. What do you think GT?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


OMG
How many times or how many ways does the same thing need to be said?


It's fricking relentless. We just don't need updates every 5 minutes.
Quoting 318. Sfloridacat5:



OMG
How many times or how many ways does the same thing need to be said?
It needs to be driven in our heads so the person can say I was right..
Oh my,again that Aussies update was posted after I did on post #267.No need to repeat that long update.All the people have to do is to go back on the blog to see if it was already posted.
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



This might be contributing to these record PDO values as well. The best match IMO to the overall weather pattern here in Central FL this year seems to be 1969. What do you think GT?
Quite frankly I don't want to see a repeat of 1969 for the sake of New Orleans still recovering from the aftermath of Katrina. I'll kindly take my Cat. 1 hurricane, nothing more and call it a day.
By the way Happy St. Patricks Day everyone! :D

Quoting 321. jrweatherman:



It's fricking relentless. We just don't need updates every 5 minutes.


As much as I hate getting involved in this type of nonsense, it's worth mentioning that this dance always takes two to tango. For example, every other post from Nea or Naga is relentless AGW inculcation. Caribboy posts incessant wishes for tropical weather in his region. Andrebrooks asks once a week if we like him. Largo posts NWS discussions on Florida, even if there is nothing to discuss. You know it's almost tropical weather season when wunderkidcaymen takes offense to something somebody posted about him. None of these posts receive the same kind of vitriol that Scott does (albeit, Scott is far more persistent and single-noted than the others.) *Please note that I enjoy and learn from all the aforementioned posters*

My point is, we are all here because something about weather tickles our fancy, and we have the good fortune to have a meeting place here where we can discuss what we enjoy with others who share our love of weather.

If it's truly as frustrating as you allude, there are several options you can employ. None of them include publicly complaining about a poster because you are unhappy with the duration or topics of his posts.
Modis caught a pass of Nathan ~7hrs ago..

Quoting 326. LongIslandBeaches:



As much as I hate getting involved in this type of nonsense, it's worth mentioning that this dance always takes two to tango. For example, every other post from Nea or Naga is relentless AGW inculcation. Caribboy posts incessant wishes for tropical weather in his region. Andrebrooks asks once a week if we like him. Largo posts NWS discussions on Florida, even if there is nothing to discuss. You know it's almost tropical weather season when wunderkidcaymen takes offense to something somebody posted about him. None of these posts receive the same kind of vitriol that Scott does (albeit, Scott is far more persistent and single-noted than the others.) *Please note that I enjoy and learn from all the aforementioned posters*

My point is, we are all here because something about weather tickles our fancy, and we have the good fortune to have a meeting place here where we can discuss what we enjoy with others who share our love of weather.

If it's truly as frustrating as you allude, there are several options you can employ. None of them include publicly complaining about a poster because you are unhappy with the duration or topics of his posts.

Right on! You forgot me in there lol.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This blog is stuck on repeat. Exact same things said every day.
Quoting 326. LongIslandBeaches:



As much as I hate getting involved in this type of nonsense, it's worth mentioning that this dance always takes two to tango. For example, every other post from Nea or Naga is relentless AGW inculcation. Caribboy posts incessant wishes for tropical weather in his region. Andrebrooks asks once a week if we like him. Largo posts NWS discussions on Florida, even if there is nothing to discuss. You know it's almost tropical weather season when wunderkidcaymen takes offense to something somebody posted about him. None of these posts receive the same kind of vitriol that Scott does (albeit, Scott is far more persistent and single-noted than the others.) *Please note that I enjoy and learn from all the aforementioned posters*

My point is, we are all here because something about weather tickles our fancy, and we have the good fortune to have a meeting place here where we can discuss what we enjoy with others who share our love of weather.

If it's truly as frustrating as you allude, there are several options you can employ. None of them include publicly complaining about a poster because you are unhappy with the duration or topics of his posts.


To be fair, I occasionally make jokes that no one thinks are very funny as well.
Good Day Everyone, and Happy St Patrick's Day to you all.
Now I was watching the weather Channel and they were talking
about this slow Tornado Season and if we could get through this
March with out a Tornado or even a Warning. Of course I said "nope'
because I see at least 1 maybe 2 by Thursday either in Alabama and
or Georgia might even see one in Mississippi....
Just wondering what you all think....


Taco :o)