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Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam Makes a Direct Hit on Vanuatu

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on March 13, 2015

The South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu is taking an extreme pounding from the 165 mph winds of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam, one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the waters east of Australia. According to microwave satellite images from the Navy Research Lab, the eye of Pam passed directly over several small islands north of the main Vanuatu island of Efate near 4:05 am EDT March 13, making Pam Earth's first landfalling Category 5 tropical cyclone since Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines in November 2013. Pam is continuing southwards, and its western eyewall passed over the eastern side of Efate Island near 8 am EDT. Efate is the most populated island in Vanuatu, with a population of 66,000, and is home to the capital city of Port Vila. With top sustained winds of 165 mph as of 8 am EDT Friday, as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), eastern Efate likely experienced severe to extreme damage from Pam, even though the island was on the weaker (left front) side of the eyewall. Fortunately, Port Vila is on the southwest side of the island, and missed the strongest winds of the eyewall. Observations from Port Vila remained online through Pam's closest approach, and a minimum pressure of 942 mb was recorded, with top winds of 31 mph, gusting to 59 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Port Vila had received 4.69" of rain from the storm as of 4 am EDT Friday, before going off-line. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam bottomed out with a central pressure of 899 mb at 8 am EDT Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical trouble: four tropical cyclones churn the Pacific in the this afternoon VIIRS image from March 12, 2015. Pam is in the right center of the image. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Pam approaching Vanuatu's capital city of Port Vila on Efate Island, as seen by the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite at 10:20 pm EDT March 12, 2015. At the time, Pam was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite loops show that Pam is a huge and fearsome-looking storm, with a prominent 17-mile diameter eye and a very large area of intense eyewall thunderstorms with extremely cold cloud tops. These clouds have cold tops due to the fact that the strong updrafts in the eyewall are pushing the cloud tops to the base of the stratosphere. Sea surface temperatures are near 30°C (86°F), which is about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Warm waters extend to great depth beneath the cyclone, giving Pam a huge amount of heat energy to draw upon. Wind shear Friday morning was low, near 10 knots, and is expected to be low to moderate though Saturday morning, which should allow Pam to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 or 5 storm. The 8 am EDT Friday official intensity forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) did not forecast any additional intensification of Pam. Intense tropical cyclones like Pam typically undergo one or more eyewall replacement cycles, during which a second, outer eyewall forms and contracts inward toward the eye, choking off the old, inner eyewall. During this time, the cyclone's intensity typically weakens. However, Friday morning microwave satellite images showed no signs that Pam is ready for an eyewall replacement cycle. These cycles are not predictable by current forecast models.


Figure 3. Track of all Category 5 storms in the South Pacific (east of 135°E) since satellite records began in 1970. Pam is one of only ten Category 5 storms ever recorded in the basin since satellite records began in 1970. The strongest tropical cyclones in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s records are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006), which topped out with 180 mph winds (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for this stat.) Image credit: Michael Lowry, TWC.

Impacts of Pam
Pam is likely to be one of the most destructive natural disasters in Vanuatu's history. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, the previous most expensive disaster in Vanuatu history was Cyclone Eric of 1985, which did $173 million in damage (1985 dollars.) Though it appears the capital of Port Vila avoided the worst of Pam, the east side of Port Vila's Efate Island was not so fortunate. Pam will also pass very close to or over the three small, southernmost islands of Vanuatu on Friday and Saturday. These islands are Erromango (population 2,000), Tanna (pop 29,000) and Aneiytum (pop 900). Even if the islands miss a direct hit by Category 4 - 5 eyewall winds, hurricane-force winds will extend out 35 miles from the center, and likely cause heavy damage to all of these islands. Regardless of Pam's track, its waves will cause major coastal damage; the significant wave height of the storm was 45 feet at 8 am EDT Friday. The NOAA WaveWatch III model predicted significant waves height of up to 50 ft, as documented by storm surge expert Hal Needham in his latest blog post. Storm surge is a major concern, as well as extreme flash flooding from Pam's torrential rains. After passing Vanuatu, Pam is likely to weaken significantly, but the storm may still be capable of bringing tropical storm-force winds to New Zealand on Sunday. High surf causing erosion and coastal damage will be the main threat from Pam to New Zealand, though.

Pam has already caused significant damage to several islands in the Solomon Islands, just to the north of Vanuatu. According to Radio New Zealand International, Tikopia and Anuta Islands bore the full force of the storm, with people injured from falling trees and houses destroyed by strong winds. Tikopia lost 90 percent of its food crops and fruit trees and the water was contaminated, but the weather was still too rough to launch a boat with emergency supplies. All phone lines to Anuta were down and there was no information about how the island had fared.

Bob Henson will have a new post late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks! Pam is very strong.
thanks for the update. she is sending massive swells away from her. it will be interesting to see how much swell is left by the time they arrive in s. & central america
Thanks Doc...899 mb...hope we never see that on our shores.
The satellite pics of Pam are very impressive...but below that, it's absolute torror.
Thank You Dr. Does not sound like (if the main airport is actually located on this SW side at Port Vila) it may have sustained substantial damage. Would appreciate any information that you may have on how the airports in these Islands fare to help with flying in supplies from Australia and other neighboring locations.
wind speed? how much is the difference being on the west side versus the east side? the speed pam is traveling or is it even more? could be the difference in a good pounding versus flattening.
Thanks Jeff. Ouch!!...
top winds of 31? that seems very light for how close the eyewall came to the island. is the backside usually that weak in a cat 5?
thanx doc....godspeed to those in the path
Thanks for the update! Figure 2 is a really scary pic!


Erromango, the next one on Pam's disastrous list. Hope inhabitants are hunkered down in their numerous caves!
only got 50 yrs of records and not a whole lot of storms. so its hard to see a pattern in this area
Thanks Dr. Masters. My second anniversary is coming up for being a wunderground member,
Quoting 10. redux:

top winds of 31? that seems very light for how close the eyewall came to the island. is the backside usually that weak in a cat 5?


No. I am guessing that station was in a more isolated place from the wind. I highly doubt that value is representative of the winds that were actually felt.
Found this link to Vanuatu Airlines (Air Vanuato).....................Have to wait to see what they update tomorrow:

Due cyclone activity all Vanuatu Airports remain closed. The closure will extend into Saturday 14 March. All Air Vanuatu flights International and Domestic have been cancelled until further notice. Flight NF11/14 March is indefinitely delayed. This news alert will be updated 14 March when more information is to hand. We regret this unavoidable inconvenience to our customers

Link

You certainly don't see this a lot.



This is few hours old. Pam is now much closer to the islands.

Oh, the guy (or the woman?) from Port Vila (see last blog, post #161) restarted their public facebook reports! Glad to learn that at least in sheltered places people apparently made it through Pam:

Humans of Vanuatu, 29 Min ago
We're still here. It was a m***r at its peak, but it's down to mere cyclone levels now.

Humans of Vanuatu, 4 Min ago
The wind is diminishing, but the next tide comes in at 4:00 am. Storm surge will be extreme because the wind is coming right inshore.

Humans of Vanuatu, 2 Minuten
Everyone is sleeping, exhausted. I'm keeping vigil, watching the shore. Port Vila is dark, but Digicel (bless their hearts) have somehow managed to keep 3G working.

Edit:
From their latest youtube-video of approaching Pam, yesterday: "I'm lucky enough to be in a very sheltered spot with a view over the inner part of Vila Bay."
Quoting 18. barbamz:

Oh, the guy from Port Vila restarted his public facebook reports! Glad to learn that at least in those shelters people apparently made it through Pam:

Humans of Vanuatu, 29 Min ago
We're still here. It was a m***r at its peak, but it's down to mere cyclone levels now.

Humans of Vanuatu, 4 Min ago
The wind is diminishing, but the next tide comes in at 4:00 am. Storm surge will be extreme because the wind is coming right inshore.

Humans of Vanuatu, 2 Minuten
Everyone is sleeping, exhausted. I'm keeping vigil, watching the shore. Port Vila is dark, but Digicel (bless their hearts) have somehow managed to keep 3G working.

I'm wondering about the skeleton crew left (stuck?) on the Tina 1...
Quoting 229. Jedkins01:



Yeah banana trees would be a better proxy for testing for hurricane force winds, as coconut trees can survive winds well into the hurricane force range before being destroyed. It usually takes category3-4 winds to start taking any real serious hits to coconut palms. They are ideal wind plants.

Sabal palms do really well too. Although pygmy date palms seem to be the best.

I think you can still find this book in most main bookstores in FL, quite an interesting to flip through. The lady who wrote it based it mainly off of damage from the 2004-2005 storms.



Quoting 19. LAbonbon:


I'm wondering about the skeleton crew left (stuck?) on the Tina 1...

Me too. Hope they survived!! If you are a facebook-member (I'm not), you may ask?
(This is what "Humans of Vanuatu" had posted several hours ago on their facebook site: "Just got a text from some of the skeleton crew on the Tina 1, one of those ships opposite our house that you saw in the video. They'd love to get off the ship now, but they can't. They're stuck there for the duration.")
read the 65 percent of the population rely on agriculture for their income and most live in house like this....


it will be interesting to see if if some of the lavish resorts in fiji get flattened by seawater.

Figure 3. Track of all Category 5 storms in the South Pacific (east of 135E) since satellite records began in 1970. Pam is one of only ten Category 5 storms ever recorded in the basin since satellite records began in 1970. The strongest tropical cyclones in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center%u2019s records are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006), which topped out with 180 mph winds (thanks go to Phil Klotzback of CSU for this stat.) Image credit: Michael Lowry, TWC.


????

What about STC Yasi(2011). I guess she wasn't a Cat 5 Cyclone. Even though she has estimated 180mph gusts and STC Ita(2014) also a Cat 5 and had gusts at 185mph.
oh wait, that's gusts. Pity no one was able to properly gauge these two storms. Though, they did strip trees of all foliage and in Yasi 23ft storm surge. I have seen first hand the scars still left from Yasi, on the land and in the eyes of people that went through Yasi. She was a Cat 5 on the SSHWS. Pity, the records don't show it.


I must say, dang!!

From the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

OCHA Flash Update 2 : Vanuatu | Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, 13 March 2015

This is the second OCHA Flash Update on Severe Tropical

Cyclone (TC) Pam (Category 5).

The eye of TC Pam has moved westward of the expected track. This has placed several islands of the Vanuatu archipelago directly in the path of the very destructive eye region of this cyclone. In the late afternoon of Friday 13 March, the western periphery of the eye wall was over the island of Tongoa (population 2,300) at the eastern end of Epi island (population 5,207). TC Pam is near peak intensity with winds in the eye region averaging 130 to 140 knots (250 to 270 kmph) with gusts up to 180 knots (340 kmph). This is an extremely destructive cyclone and those in its path will be in great danger. The expectation is that the western edge of the eye will pass over or extremely close to the eastern side of Efate (where the capital Port Vila is located) between 10.00 p.m. and midnight local time in Vanuatu on 13 March.

There are no official reports of deaths or injuries, however there is an unconfirmed report that 44 people have died in Penama Province. The population that already may have been hit hard is potentially those living on the islands of Maewo (population 3,569), Ambae (population 10,407) and Pentecost (population 16,843). TC Pam is now heading for the most populated island of Efate (population 65,734) Port Vila has a population of 44,000) and other smaller islands to Efate's north. The southern islands (total population 32,540) are also likely to be directly hit.

The Pacific Humanitarian Team is preparing to support the government-led response to the cyclone, and continues to preposition staff and stocks both in country and within the region.
Further updates will be provided once more information becomes available.

For further information, please contact:
Karina Coates, Public Information Officer OCHA Regional Office for the Pacific, coates@un.org, 679 777 1433

Source: Link
Aussi, nice to see you! Hope you are well in spite of the severe weather which has hit Sydney lately ..



Pam: Saved current loop with the detour - like a "kiss of death" (hopefully not) - of the cyclone to Efate. Source for updates. BBL
Good Lord..I,d call that a direct hit...With the worst side of the cyclone of course..

Too much rain for many.

Quoting 28. hydrus:

Good Lord..I,d call that a direct hit...With the worst side of the cyclone of course..

Island hopping monster.
Olwyn.
Whoever the emergency planners are in Vanuatu, this has to be basically the worst scenario they ever plan for, right?
A Godsend, and quite amazing, if those were really the worst conditions Port Villa experienced. Their tourism season is about to start up, land diving and all. Hopefully their economy is not devastated as well.
Quoting 33. TimSoCal:

Whoever the emergency planners are in Vanuatu, this has to be basically the worst scenario they ever plan for, right?


No, the capital seems like it was largely spared. Although I have a tough time believing Dr. Masters numbers were the worst they saw. These islands have are quite amazing in their decentralization.
Quoting 31. barbamz:


Island hopping monster.
Reminds me of some of the Caribbean monsters weve had...And some wonder why I am satisfied with a quiet Atlantic Basin..:)
Quoting 33. TimSoCal:

Whoever the emergency planners are in Vanuatu, this has to be basically the worst scenario they ever plan for, right?
I cant imagine anything worse , other than a massive tsunami or volcanic explosion...Krakatau comes to mind.
Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc...899 mb...hope we never see that on our shores.


Yeah, the only sub 900mb storm to landfall in the U.S. is the 1935 Labor Day Storm (892 mb, 185 mph winds).

We're very lucky Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb, which eventually made landfall just south of Texas) didn't make it to the U.S. when they were at their full strength.
This is a bit old , but CIMSS has this loop of Pam..

Quoting 28. hydrus:

Good Lord..I,d call that a direct hit...With the worst side of the cyclone of course..



The first island looks to have had a continuous hit down the east side but the next island seems to be directly under the eye soon.
There are a lot more islands in that zone, probably a lot more danger to come, sadly.

Possibly a little to the west:-

Link

Still Dark there for a while yet.
Quoting 23. ricderr:

read the 65 percent of the population rely on agriculture for their income and most live in house like this....



lived in houses like this I doubt many houses like that survived
lived in houses like this I doubt many houses like that survived


very true.....at least they look like they won't be very hard to rebuild
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, the only sub 900mb storm to landfall in the U.S. is the 1935 Labor Day Storm (882 mb, 185 mph winds).

We're very lucky Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb, which eventually made landfall just south of Texas) didn't make it to the U.S. when they were at their full strength.
Yep.. Went through the outer bands of Wilma. Was at channel 2 (WBBH) tracking Hurricane Gilbert with Jim Farrell in 88. I kept the print outs from the computer for keepsake. Have done much reading the Labor Day Hurricane...Heartbreaking.....
It is getting very windy here . I wonder if this is a bit stronger windwise than originally thought.

Quoting 36. hydrus:

Reminds me of some of the Caribbean monsters weve had...And some wonder why I am satisfied with a quiet Atlantic Basin..:)


I am also satisfied with a quiet Atlantic Basin. Andrew cured any and all curiosity that I might have ever wanted to know and feel up close and personal.
Quoting hydrus:
I cant imagine anything worse , other than a massive tsunami or volcanic explosion...Krakatau comes to mind.


Yes, hard to believe sometimes.

High quality short clip of the St. Helen's explosion and ash cloud (300 mph wall of destruction)
Link
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, the only sub 900mb storm to landfall in the U.S. is the 1935 Labor Day Storm (882 mb, 185 mph winds).

We're very lucky Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb, which eventually made landfall just south of Texas) didn't make it to the U.S. when they were at their full strength.



you are wrong Wilma did not make landfall in TX it made land fall in S FL has a strong CAT 3 after hitting MX has a cat 5 if a re call
Quoting 42. ricderr:

lived in houses like this I doubt many houses like that survived


very true.....at least they look like they won't be very hard to rebuild
Providing there are still trees there
Quoting 48. Tazmanian:




you are wrong Wilma did not make landfall in TX it made land fall in S FL has a strong CAT 3 after hitting MX has a cat 5 if a re call
Yeah, the only sub 900mb storm to landfall in the U.S. is the 1935 Labor Day Storm (882 mb, 185 mph winds).

We're very lucky Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb, which eventually made landfall just south of Texas) didn't make it to the U.S. when they were at their full strength.
Quoting 47. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, hard to believe sometimes.

High quality short clip of the St. Helen's explosion and ash cloud (300 mph wall of destruction)
Link

Remember Dan Rather covering that...Was very bad. people wanted to go in at the worse time to retreive belongings and were turned away... Most who went in didnt come back.
Correction
Labor Day Storm was 892mb. I corrected it in my previous comment.
Both southernmost islands will get Pams worst...

Quoting Tazmanian:



you are wrong Wilma did not make landfall in TX it made land fall in S FL has a strong CAT 3 after hitting MX has a cat 5 if a re call


Taz, I was in S.W. Florida when Wilma came ashore.
You miss understood my sentence.

I was also living on Padre Island in Texas during Hurricane Gilbert. It really had us scared for a while. Surfed some big waves in the GOM from the storm though.
Pam's just working her way down the Islands. It's not looking good.
check out 1935 omg.............What are some of Florida’s worst hurricanes?
1906
The worst hurricane in 170 years killed one hundred railroad workers in the Keys. The eye passed over Miami. At least 34 people were killed when it reached the Pensacola area.

1909, 1910, 1919
A series of bad hurricanes hit the Keys. They damaged the Seven Mile Bridge and caused major damage in Key West.

1921
The last major hurricane to hit Tampa and the Florida central west coast caused over a million dollars in damage. The storm passed across the state and exited at Jacksonville.

1926
The eye passed over Miami. Wind gusts were estimated at 150 miles per hour. Most buildings in Dade and Broward Counties were damaged or destroyed. There was major flooding of all coastal sections, downtown Miami, and downtown Ft. Lauderdale.

(1928) Okeechobee Hurricane
The eye of the hurricane moved ashore near Palm Beach causing widespread destruction. Nearly 2,000 people died when the dikes broke on Lake Okeechobee, causing massive flooding.

(1935) Florida Keys Labor Day Hurricane
This was the strongest storm ever to hit the United States. The winds were estimated up to 250 miles per hour. This small but intense storm (category 5) caused significant damage. Hundreds of World War I veterans who had been sent to the Keys to build the Overseas Railroad were killed. The storm surge floated an entire train away.

(1960) Hurricane Donna
This hurricane had 150 mile per hour winds. It caused major damage in the Keys.

(1992) Hurricane Andrew
This hurricane hit Miami. It was the most costly natural disaster to hit a United States city in modern times. It caused $30 billion in damage.
Quoting hydrus:
Both southernmost islands will get Pams worst...


What is local time there? My heart goes out for those poor souls a cat5 in the dead of night, OMG.
Quoting 57. lat25five:


What is local time there? My heart goes out for those poor souls a cat5 in the dead of night, OMG.

Current time 5:14 am (they're UTC/GMT + 11). Sunrise is at 5:49.
<---- Big Duke NOLA 7 back on line on the WU Big Loop.
From ReliefWEB



Flooding in Vanuatu as cyclone hits maximum strength

3/13/2015 - 06:42 GMT

Tropical Cyclone Pam triggered flooding along with evacuation orders affecting thousands of people in Vanuatu on Friday as it intensified to a maximum-strength storm offshore, officials said.

Aid agencies said many people living in flimsy slum accommodation were particularly at risk in the poor Pacific nation of 270,000 people, as well as those in remote outlying islands.

The Vanuatu Disaster Management Office issued red alerts for four provinces, advising thousands of residents to shelter in evacuation centres.

Meteorologists said Pam had hit the top category five intensity, with winds set to reach up to 230 kilometres per hour (143 miles per hour).

The cyclone was expected to track 100 kilometres off the island nation's east coast on Friday.

But Vanuatu's meteorology service said residents should still brace for winds of 165 kph (102 mph) along with flash flooding, landslides and "very rough to phenomenal seas".

UNICEF spokeswoman Alice Clements said Port Vila resembled a "ghost town" as people battened down.

"Tonight is really the night we're going to find out," the official with the UN children's agency told AFP.

"The winds have definitely increased, the palm trees are blowing around like crazy, you're starting to get that kind of howling wind coming through," she said.

Clements said there was little hope that the cyclone might make a late change of course and largely spare Vanuatu.

"They're super unpredictable but the centre of the storm is tracking really close by, so even if it's not a direct hit there's going to be really significant impacts," she said.

Save the Children’s Vanuatu director Tom Skirrow said up to 50,000 children were at risk in the nation, where two-thirds of the population rely on subsistence agriculture.

“We have been going door to door in some of the poorest slum areas and I’m hugely concerned that not enough is being done to make sure children and families are safe as this huge storm approaches," he said.

"Thousands of families are living in makeshift, flimsy houses which will not withstand the immense winds and rain we’re expecting. Families need to urgently evacuate to safe buildings or the results could be catastrophic."

Meteorologist Neville Koop from Fiji's Nadraki Weather Service said Pam's winds were capable of bringing down even well-built structures.

He said they could be more destructive than Cyclone Uma in 1987, which killed at least 30 people when it sank two ferries off Port Vila.

"Pam has winds which are much stronger than Vanuatu experienced" in 1987, he said.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop issued a statement urging citizens “to reconsider your need to travel" to Vanuatu.

"We are monitoring the humanitarian impact closely and are preparing a potential response to this emergency," Bishop said.

Cyclones, known as hurricanes in the northern hemisphere, are a common occurrence in the South Pacific at this time of year.

Tropical Cyclone Lusi swept across Vanuatu in March last year, killing 11 people and damaging crops and infrastructure.

ns/bp/jit

© 1994-2015 Agence France-Presse

Agence France-Presse:
©AFP: The information provided in this product is for personal use only. None of it may be reproduced in any form whatsoever without the express permission of Agence France-Presse.


Those back and forth wobbles of the eyewall right over the islands has been terrifying to see on the loops.
<---- Big Duke NOLA 7 back on line on the WU Big Loop.

bout freaking time....i'm tired of being the only one getting in trouble on here
Quoting 61. weathermanwannabe:

Those back and forth wobbles of the eyewall right over the islands has been terrifying to see on the loops.


And it looks to be tightening up even more in the last few frames.
Most recent RAMMB image and the loop link; the storm has gotten more symmetrical over the past few hours with no current sign of imminent weakening that I can see:

Loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_mtsat_4km_ir4 _floater&width=640&height=480&number_o f_images_to_display=12


Image from Port Vila:

Thank you Dr Masters.
pam damages a bridge in kiribati

flooding in tarawa but they were spared the damaging winds

Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lived in houses like this I doubt many houses like that survived


Even though brick houses would be stronger, I don't think that many of them would survive Pam's wrath either. Prayers for all those on that Island.
In re: Hurricane94 @ #152, Envoirment # 156, liquidsuid # 211 & Hydrus #217 thread comments to yesterday’s keypost on Pam by Dr. Masters – I agree. Sitting in comfort watching the parade of digital renderings from little splashes of far removed realms, I cannot keep my mind from Dr. Oppenheimer’s late-forties quotation of Vishnu, as avatar Krishna, from the ancient Bahgavad-Gita: “Now I am become Death. Destroyer of Worlds.”
Looks like atlantic hurricane season will be very quiet again.
Fascinating yet terrifying. I've been through many but not in an area like this. Prayers. What a monster. The comments are great.
Chilling the keys this is not a Wilma but andrew type deal for those houses. The wobble is scary.
A few comments from the New Zealand News Service:


7:59am: Australian tourist Kris Paras could hear Cyclone Pam from her hotel bathroom as she waited for the storm's eye to hit.

"It sounds like a relentless freight train," she said last night. "Floor is shaking a bit."

7:40am: The UN's relief agency says the death toll could run into the dozens.

"The immediate concern is for a very high death toll but also an enormous amount of destruction and devastation," Sune Gudnitz, regional director for the UNOCHA, told Reuters.

Eyewall appears on New Caledonia radar :

One more and the link:

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/wost-case-scenario-f eared-cyclone-pam-slams-into-vanuatu-6254887


There have been unconfirmed reports of deaths in Vanuatu after tropical cyclone Pam turned towards the capital, making landfall overnight.

The category five storm, with winds over 250 km/h, made a direct hit on several small islands and the eye passed over the eastern side of Efate island, home to capital city Port Vila.

It appears communications are down and there's fears for the 250,000 residents of Vanuatu, many of whom live in basic structures.

Sune Gudnitz from the United Nations office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs warns it appears to be a "worst case scenario" for the island nation after the storm took a turn towards the southern islands.

He told the ABC that very few structures would be able to withstand the category five cyclone and they were expecting the total destruction of many buildings and homes.

The Vanuatu National Disaster office says red alerts are in place for Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, Shefa and Tafea provinces.

Heavy to torrential rainfalls and flooding, including flash flooding are expected over low lying areas. Landslides are also expected.

All Vanuatu airports remain closed. ONE News understands there are plans to send aid flights in tomorrow.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 19:06:49 S Lon : 168:58:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 893.2mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.3 degrees



Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #50
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
2:07 AM WST March 14 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category One (995 hPa) located at 27.9S 114.7E or 55 kilometers east southeast of Kalbarri and 100 kilometers north of Geraldtonhas 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 19 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity;

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn lies just to the southeast of Kalbarri. The system is weakening and moving towards the south southeast and is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia on Saturday.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are possible at Billabong Roadhouse and Kalbarri and may extend to Geraldton over the next few hours and areas further south early this morning.

The potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE has passed however higher than normal tides are still expected in coastal areas south of Carnarvon, including Denham, Kalbarri, Geraldton and Perth.

Heavy rainfall is occurring in northern parts of the Central West and adjacent Gascoyne. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards during Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 32.0S 116.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 36.0S 118.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 38.8S 124.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 41.1S 130.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Over the last 6 hours Olwyn has continued to weaken. The system is being tracked on radar and satellite imagery.

Dvorak is no longer being performed as the system is over land.

Olwyn is located overland and is its forecast keeps it overland. The effect of the land and increasing shear [20 knots at 12UTC] should weaken the system below cyclone intensity just after 0000 UTC on the 14th.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks has a narrow spread with the system expected to track towards the south south east and accelerate over the next 18 hours. Although Olwyn will weaken as it moves over southern Western Australia, squally winds and heavy rainfall are still likely to affect a large area of southern parts.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Billabong to Jurien Bay
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
4:41 AM EST March 14 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 13.1S 145.0E or 130 kilometers north northeast of Cape Melville and 265 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 1 knot.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan is near stationary and has maintained its intensity as a category 2 cyclone. It is expected to intensify later today as it begins to move eastwards away from the coast.

GALES currently extend out to approximately 180 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 140 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES could develop about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville this morning and could also develop south towards Cape Flattery as the cyclone intensifies. The risk of GALES will persist throughout Saturday morning, before contracting offshore during the day as the cyclone moves away from the Queensland coast.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts early this morning before gradually easing later in today as the cyclone moves away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.0S 146.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.1S 147.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.7S 151.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 14.8S 154.7 - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
===========================
Nathan has continued to struggle to maintain organized deep convection about its center, with a new pulse developing on the 1630UTC MTSAT infrared satellite image. However, in general the temperature gradient has evened out around the system during the last 24 hours and overall the cloud signature shows a more circular appearance suggesting deep layer shear is on the downward trend. This is supported by the CIMSS satellite winds which now depict around 20 knots of deep layer shear over the system.

Confidence in the current center position is only fair, with no recent guidance available from geostationary or polar satellite imagery. Dvorak analysis at 18UTC employed a shear pattern, with the estimated center embedded less than 1/3 degree from the strong temperature gradient of the new convective flare giving DT 3.0. MET is 4.0 using a D- trend over the past 24 hours. PAT is adjusted to be weaker at 3.5. As the center position is only fair, PAT is used as the final T of 3.5. Intensity is maintained at 55 knots [10 minute mean], although proximal wind observations to the south of the system have generally increased during the last 24 hours which may indicate some intensification.

Tropical cyclone Nathan remains slow moving while situated in a steering neutral point between a weakening mid-level ridge to the south and a strengthening westerly flow to the north. It is anticipated that the westerly flow will become the dominant steering mechanism during Saturday and as a result direct the system away from the Queensland coast.

The moderate to strong vertical shear limiting the development of tropical cyclone Nathan appears to be easing and it is expected that it should continue to reduce during Saturday. At the same time, the system will begin to move away from any land influences and it is expected that a second outflow channel could develop over the course of the weekend, which in combination with the reducing vertical wind shear will lead to a favorable environment for development. This is reflected in most numerical guidance. Given the currently poor cloud signature, have delayed intensification to category 3 until 1200 UTC Saturday, with more rapid intensification following. Generally, the computer model guidance caps the intensity of the system at a high category 3 as it moves eastwards across the Coral Sea, but some do indicate that it could reach category 4 into Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
3:00 AM JST March 14 2015
=================================
Truk Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (992 hPa) located at 10.6N 157.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 12.3N 150.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Truk waters (Chuuk)
48 HRS: 12.6N 143.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 12.9N 137.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Wonder if there's any live streaming footage from Vanuatu
Yikes!

ECMF


UKME

For the first time since last year we are seeing signs of significant warming occurring near South America.

Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:

For the first time since last year we are seeing signs of significant warming occurring near South America.




And significant cooling off Ecuador, which is where there ought to be warming during an El Nino.
Given the current situation in Vanuatu, I thought we might get a brief reprieve from the ongoing El Nino debate, if only for one day................Oh Well.
Divergence on Pam intensity estimates

RSMC NADI 135 kt (10 minute)

JTWC 135 kt (1 minute)

NOAA 155 kt (1 minute)
First visible


Those of you getting sick of the 80's in Florida. A nice pattern change is coming next week!!!
Amazing shot below; the Eastern part of that Island in/near the eyewall and the Western part in the eye; every wobble makes a difference with an eye that large over a small island in terms of localized impacts.
Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:
For the first time since last year we are seeing signs of significant warming occurring near South America.



Warming of the western Indian Ocean is more significant, IMO. Will have to see if it continues, because +IOD would create an ideal situation for this ElNino to strengthen.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #27
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FIVE (11F)
6:00 AM FST March 14 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Five (899 hPa) located at 18.9S 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Organization remains good with well defined eye. Deep convection remains persistent. System lies in a moderate sheared environment with moderate to high upper divergence. Outflow good. Pam is being steered southwards by a northerly deep layer mean wind flow. Cyclonic circulation extends to 200 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with DG eye and cold dark grey surround, yields DT=7.0, MET=7.0, PT=6.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it towards the south southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 21.7S 170.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 25.2S 172.6E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 33.1S 178.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
Quoting 93. TimSoCal:



Warming of the western Indian Ocean is more significant, IMO. Will have to see if it continues, because +IOD would create an ideal situation for this ElNino to strengthen.


Bom shows the IOD getting to positive or right at positive territory later this Summer. I showed that on here yesterday.
88. nrtiwlnvragn
8:25 PM GMT on March 13, 2015
Divergence on Pam intensity estimates

RSMC NADI 135 kt (10 minute)

JTWC 135 kt (1 minute)

NOAA 155 kt (1 minute)


Hmm..

not a category five anymore from Joint Typhoon Warning Center?!

Quoting 88. nrtiwlnvragn:

Divergence on Pam intensity estimates

RSMC NADI 135 kt (10 minute)

JTWC 135 kt (1 minute)

NOAA 155 kt (1 minute)

When is the next update from the Fiji Met Service?


When is the next update from the Fiji Met Service?


about 2:00 AM UTC (10:00 PM EDT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Given the current situation in Vanuatu, I thought we might get a brief reprieve from the ongoing El Nino debate, if only for one day................Oh Well.


Not going to happen:(

Beautiful day out here watching the pro's at Innisbrooks Copperhead course. The weather couldn't be better. Following Jordan Speith who is challenging for the lead and Adam Scott who needs birdies just to make the cut.
Quoting 89. nrtiwlnvragn:

First visible





That's a direct hit on Tanna. I thought it might go a bit east of the island, but it's the worst case scenario. Tanna has 29,000 residents, even though it's smaller than Erromango, the island to the north, which has a population of just 2,000. This could be the worst impact of the storm.
Quoting 86. yonzabam:



And significant cooling off Ecuador, which is where there ought to be warming during an El Nino.



The fact that we are beginning to see warming occur near the South American Coast is huge. What will happen is this will continue and then we will see warming spread into Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 as the Downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave surfaces at the coast then sloshes back west.


Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:




The fact that we are beginning to see warming occur near the South American Coast is huge. What will happen is this will continue and then we will see warming spread into Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 as the Downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave surfaces at the coast then sloshes back west.



yep...I said that the day before yesterday..:)
This site(New Zealand TVONE) seem to be a good one for current updates from that region; they are coming in about every 45 minutes.

Link

There have been unconfirmed reports that more than 40 people are dead after Tropical cyclone Pam hit Vanuatu overnight.

Our concern of course is that the unofficial death reports are probably coming in from more populated areas that still have communication; the numbers will probably rise once disaster and relief crews start arriving and moving across the entire Islands in the areas hit by the storm. We will not know what the actual numbers will be until a few weeks from now as they start going through missing persons reports and the like.
Quoting hydrus:
yep...I said that the day before yesterday..:)


And I said it the day before that.
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:




The fact that we are beginning to see warming occur near the South American Coast is huge. What will happen is this will continue and then we will see warming spread into Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 as the Downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave surfaces at the coast then sloshes back west.



And what about that small cool pool "TRYING" to develop west of that warm pool????
Quoting 106. LAbonbon:



Now it looks really bad for the third island in the chain.
This time it might be a direct overhead pass.
Dawn now and its not going to be a welcome sight.
Anyone notice that the CFSv2 has actually backed off a little from the moderate-strong el nino event, to a more weak-weak moderate event as we progress in time? Maybe the odds of a stronger el nino event has decreased slightly.
Quoting 108. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Anyone notice that the CFSv2 has actually backed off a little from the moderate-strong el nino event, to a more weak-weak moderate event as we progress in time?


Probably going to be the weakest, most uneventful El Nino in the history of . . . err . . . El Ninos.
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:

Yikes!

ECMF


UKME


I really hope that does not happen...and its not in reference to Nino.
Quoting 96. HadesGodWyvern:

88. nrtiwlnvragn
8:25 PM GMT on March 13, 2015


Hmm..

not a category five anymore from Joint Typhoon Warning Center?!



160mph to 155mph- Potato, potatoe...
Quoting 108. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Anyone notice that the CFSv2 has actually backed off a little from the moderate-strong el nino event, to a more weak-weak moderate event as we progress in time? Maybe the odds of a stronger el nino event has decreased slightly.
greetings Tig...Not to sound disrespectful, but you are focusing to hard on that model. run to run changes are practically worthless.
Yes, finally
Quoting 100. yonzabam:



That's a direct hit on Tanna. I thought it might go a bit east of the island, but it's the worst case scenario. Tanna has 29,000 residents, even though it's smaller than Erromango, the island to the north, which has a population of just 2,000. This could be the worst impact of the storm.


Doesn't get much worse than that.
Sub surface hot pool is cooling off
Before it had hot spot 6C near 160W now two small spots of 5C near 160W

East side of sub surface hot pool is surfacing but stops short of the surface between 100W to 130W

What I see is the same thing as we had last year at this same time

I also see the cool pool from 100W and E get much stronger and holding its place
Also another cool pool building in the W from 150E/160E and W spreading E








Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Anyone notice that the CFSv2 has actually backed off a little from the moderate-strong el nino event, to a more weak-weak moderate event as we progress in time? Maybe the odds of a stronger el nino event has decreased slightly.


Lol
This is a repeat of last year
Lol

Eventually CFS may show a return to neutral condition like it did last year

Anyway we just have to sit and watch see how it plays out and so far it's playing out like how I thought it would so far
Quoting 104. luvtogolf:



And I said it the day before that.
dammit
Quoting 112. hydrus:

greetings Tig...Not to sound disrespectful, but you are focusing to hard on that model. run to run changes are practically worthless.
You're not coming on disrespectful hydrus, i understand. I was just noticing some differences in the model runs. I 100% understand you. I don't, however, trust this model at all. You should read comment 115.
looking at that map of cyclone cat-5's, it seems as if Fiji has been incredibly lucky. It's a very densely populated, and more developed place than Vanuatu, and a direct hit there would be incredibly devastating.
Quoting 114. ProgressivePulse:



Doesn't get much worse than that.
The strongest side too..So if it was moving at 12 knots , even higher winds..If it was a cat one, not much difference, at cat 5, substantial difference.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Doesn't get much worse than that.

well at least its daylight now, but those that havent reached a shelter by this time are in for a terrible experience.
Quoting 90. weatherbro:

Those of you getting sick of the 80's in Florida. A nice pattern change is coming next week!!!
o yeah
Quoting 119. nwobilderburg:

looking at that map of cyclone cat-5's, it seems as if Fiji has been incredibly lucky. It's a very densely populated, and more developed place than Vanuatu, and a direct hit there would be incredibly devastating.


i forgot about Cyclone Evan in 2012... though that was a Category 4
Quoting 115. wunderkidcayman:

Sub surface hot pool is cooling off
Before it had hot spot 6�C near 160W now two small spots of 5�C near 160W

East side of sub surface hot pool is surfacing but stops short of the surface between 100W to 130W

What I see is the same thing as we had last year at this same time

I also see the cool pool from 100W and E get much stronger and holding its place
Also another cool pool building in the W from 150E/160E and W spreading E









Interesting....very interesting...... So.... what you're basically saying is that there are some easterly/neutral trade winds still lingering in the equatorial Pacific ocean. Any chance that the enso state can slip back to neutral/cool neutral, as WSI was forecasting, or maybe the subsurface warm pool may not surface as strong as it was at a deeper depth???
Quoting 121. lat25five:


well at least its daylight now, but those that havent reached a shelter by this time are in for a terrible experience.

there is no reaching anything
there on there own
just them and mom
and she is not
to happy right now
Quoting 107. PlazaRed:


Now it looks really bad for the third island in the chain.
This time it might be a direct overhead pass.
Dawn now and its not going to be a welcome sight.



That third island is Tanna. The towns near where the eye passed are Lenakel and Izangel. The former's low lying as is the Whitegrass Airport to its north.
reliefweb.com on info and relief for Cyclone pam............................Link
Quoting hydrus:
dammit


I was sure someone beat me by a day but they didn't come forward:)
united nations-redcross and other relief agencies coordinating relief efforts for the victims of cyclone pam, gee those people sure are going to need a lot of help when this Monster of a storm gets finished with them..prayers for the survivors.
Quoting 128. luvtogolf:



I was sure someone beat me by a day but they didn't come forward:)
They were anonymyninous,,,,anminous.......unknown...:)
it pulled to the left of the last island with eye passing off shore heading sw

Quoting 115. wunderkidcayman:

Sub surface hot pool is cooling off
Before it had hot spot 6�C near 160W now two small spots of 5�C near 160W

East side of sub surface hot pool is surfacing but stops short of the surface between 100W to 130W

What I see is the same thing as we had last year at this same time

I also see the cool pool from 100W and E get much stronger and holding its place
Also another cool pool building in the W from 150E/160E and W spreading E









Nitpicking i see. You did the same thing last year same as Scott.
If anyone wonders why the wind readings from Port Vila were so low, IIRC there was a statement saying that the station was somewhat shielded by bushes. The actual wind speeds were probably twice that.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #53
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
5:11 AM WST March 14 2015
=====================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category One located at 28.1S 114.9E or 80 kilometers north northeast of Geraldton and 75 kilometers northwest of Mullewa 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 12 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn lies to the southeast of Kalbarri and is slowly weakening as it moves south southeast. Winds continue to strengthen at Geraldton and Mullewa as the system moves closer.

It is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia today.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend to Geraldton, Mullewa and areas further south over the next few hours.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may be occurring at Kalbarri and should be on an easing trend. Conditions should also be easing at Billabong Roadhouse.

The potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE has passed however higher than normal tides are still expected in coastal areas south of Carnarvon, including Denham, Kalbarri, Geraldton and Perth.

Heavy rainfall is occurring in northern parts of the Central West and adjacent Gascoyne. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Billabong to Jurien Bay
Went Island hopping, land friction is an amazing thing
Quoting 125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there is no reaching anything
there on there own
just them and mom
and she is not
to happy right now
She threw down on those little islands.......the people who probably least deserve it.
Quoting 136. hydrus:

She threw down on those little islands.......the people who probably least deserve it.

this is for sure a life changing event for many there
just hope any numbers are low but I fear that is likely not the case
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
o yeah


Sunny and mid to upper 80s becomes sunny and low 80s for my area (Fort Myers).
I'm not sure if I can take it.

A few sprinkles would be nice, but it's hard to complain when you've had 13 perfect weather days in a row.
Quoting 138. Sfloridacat5:



Sunny and mid to upper 80s becomes sunny and low 80s for my area (Fort Myers).
I'm not sure if I can take it.

A few sprinkles would be nice, but it's hard to complain when you've had 13 perfect weather days in a row.
enjoy we all know bad happens sometimes real bad just a matter of time
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is for sure a life changing event for many there
just hope any numbers are low but I fear that is likely not the case


Hopefully the people left some of the really small islands. I've seen some pictures of some really tiny islands in that area. Storm surge would have completely washed over most of these really small islands.
Quoting 140. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully the people left some of the really small islands. I've seen some pictures of some really tiny islands in that area. Storm surge would have completely washed over most of these really small islands.


it will take a few days before we get info
if any at all
maybe higher populated areas
but any smaller areas may never hear anything at all
if there even still there
sure some survive there
but it looks bad from this end
just watchin sats
and knowing whats
occurring under them
Quoting 131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it pulled to the left of the last island with eye passing off shore heading sw



Well that's probably a bit of a relief for some to say the least.
Not a lot of weakening though, so who could possibly be in the pathways next?

Amazing luck if the word can be used that the centre did not pass directly over at least one of the 3 islands but just grazed their sides.
Prayers answered.
Another map of the affected area.
The English language is full of problems like the one presented by theretheir and they're. Most native English speakers pronounce these the same way (the words are known as homophones); therefore, it is difficult for some to determine which spelling to use. Each spelling means a very different thing, and it is important to communicate clearly and correctly in written correspondence and in business or academic writing.
Quoting 144. nymore:

The English language is full of problems like the one presented by theretheir and they're. Most native English speakers pronounce these the same way (the words are known as homophones); therefore, it is difficult for some to determine which spelling to use. Each spelling means a very different thing, and it is important to communicate clearly and correctly in written correspondence and in business or academic writing.
Use there when referring to a place
there is no reaching anything
there on there own
just them and mom
and she is not
to happy right now


there is no reaching anything
theY'RE on theIR own
just them and mom
and she is not
toO happy right now

stones and glass houses, hahahaha
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Use there when referring to a place


I live there (location, place).
They're (they are) my friends.
I like their (shows possession)car.
Quoting 147. aquak9:

there is no reaching anything
there on there own
just them and mom
and she is not
to happy right now


there is no reaching anything
theY'RE on theIR own
just them and mom
and she is not
toO happy right now

stones and glass houses, hahahaha
forgive me i am not perfect nor a rocket scientist
Quoting 144. nymore:

The English language is full of problems like the one presented by theretheir and they're. Most native English speakers pronounce these the same way (the words are known as homophones); therefore, it is difficult for some to determine which spelling to use. Each spelling means a very different thing, and it is important to communicate clearly and correctly in written correspondence and in business or academic writing.


No it's not
This may not be the best post I ever made, but I hope you all will understand the meaning. I just wanted to say I saw some posts earlier about being fed up about other people posting weather not related to Cyclone Pam. My intent is not to start any drama, but people shouldn't feel the need to be restricted to post only about the Cyclone as there is other weather happening around the world. This is an open weather blog if I am not mistaken. If the post is weather or climate related then it is still within the constrains of the rules. Also, if say we had multiple cyclones affecting land, let's just say this was 2004 all over again and we had Ivan making landfall and Jeanne following behind, would it be wrong to post images or discuss both hurricanes? And just to wrap it up if you have a problem with someones post, then you can flag it or ignore that user, or you can practice some good discipline and scroll right past the post like I do. :)

Also, before anyone wants to make any assumptions I don't think by posting weather not related to Cyclone Pam means that you are being selfish or inconsiderate. I think all the bloggers here know what is going on and what is at stake. It is a sad thing to see countries or island nations such as Vanuatu with not so great infrastructure devastated by this cyclone and the best thing I can do sitting behind this computer is to hope for the best and send my well wishes and prayers their way and make a donation after the storm has passed. But in the end it is the thought that counts and I hope this resonates throughout the blog.
Well said, GTstormChaserCaleb... anything weather-related should be fair game in these threads, though certainly the concentration of comments should be, and generally are, aimed at those directly in harm's way of any current, destructive weather event. I think we do a good job, in general, of keeping our attentions focused on such situations, but certainly sidebars are allowable and are not indicative of a lack of caring.

As to the English language sidebar, I'm considered, on other message boards, as a "Grammar Nazi", so I know perfectly well the proper usage of homophones such as they're/there/their, it's/its, and know/no. That said, I'm also homophonically dyslexic, for lack of a better term, and about 80% of the time I will type the wrong one, and only catch my typed mistake on editing. I almost always make mistakes on close sounds as well, like could/good.

As such, at work especially, I have to go back and edit even one or two sentence emails and messages, as otherwise I appear to not know which words to use, and when to use them.

Meaning, just because you might see the apparent wrong usage of their, there, or they're from me, or others, please don't automatically assume it's (I just typed that wrong, btw... sigh) because we don't know how to use such words properly.

Jo
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
154. vis0
CREDIT:: nullschool and to the many that hold their fingers up in the air** at ground level to get these reading.
SUBJECT:: 4 storms in the wPac's tropcs, aka? The Drabulous Four
VID TITLE:: its gfycat's names.

(remember gfycat's are toggable (you can scratch them) arrows & spacebar as cursor is over vid interface.)

**uhhh those fingers in NYc uhhh are not measuring the wind direction.
Apology forgot to ad frame numbers, luckily most watched features are moving in a manner one can tell which is frame 1. Imagine if this ani were only zoomed on Nathan?,...going around in circle ...like a bird up in...

Good Saturday afternoon to all.
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

A few comments from the New Zealand News Service:


7:59am: Australian tourist Kris Paras could hear Cyclone Pam from her hotel bathroom as she waited for the storm's eye to hit.

"It sounds like a relentless freight train," she said last night. "Floor is shaking a bit."

7:40am: The UN's relief agency says the death toll could run into the dozens.

"The immediate concern is for a very high death toll but also an enormous amount of destruction and devastation," Sune Gudnitz, regional director for the UNOCHA, told Reuters.

I like to remind people that while "dozens" may not seem like much, consider the ratio of deaths to population. With 270,000 only, even 27 lost is a huge dent; the same loss ratio would equal 10000 deaths in a population of 100 million.
Quoting 149. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

forgive me i am not perfect nor a rocket scientist
No rocket science required. Save that for the wx ....

I admit it took me a while to figure out what the homophone lesson was related to .... lol ...

Nothing wrong with being a bad speller if you know that about yourself and know when to get somebody to check your formal writing ... in the blog... well, you are worth a lot more than your spelling.

Gotta admit though... with the spelling changes your comment comes across as almost poetic.... [made me think about how u said, not just what]

Hey ho ....
Not sure if this is the right place to ask this question but couldn't find place to ask general questions. I'm wondering what app if any I can download so as to be able to watch the videos on the site. I have an Asus zenfone 6 running on Android. Thanks Cu