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Category 5 Cyclone Pam Bearing Down on Island Nation of Vanuatu

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:20 PM GMT on March 12, 2015

Residents of the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu are bracing for the impact of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam, one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the waters east of Australia. Pam has rapidly intensified over the past two days and reached top sustained winds of 160 mph as of 2 pm EDT Thursday, making it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever recorded in the basin since satellite records began in 1970. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam had a central pressure of 918 mb at 2 pm EDT Thursday.


Figure 1. The eye of Cyclone Pam as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 10:11pm EDT March 11, 2015. At the time, Pam was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.


Figure 2. Track of all Category 5 storms in the South Pacific (east of 135°E) since satellite records began in 1970. The strongest tropical cyclones in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s records are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006), which topped out with 180 mph winds (thanks go to Phil Klotzback of CSU for this stat.) Image credit: Michael Lowry, TWC.

Satellite loops show that Pam is a huge and fearsome-looking storm, with a prominent 17-mile diameter eye and a very large area of intense eyewall thunderstorms with extremely cold cloud tops. These clouds have cold tops due to the fact that the strong updrafts in the eyewall are pushing the cloud tops to the base of the stratosphere. Sea surface temperatures are near 30°C (86°F), which is about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Warm waters extend to great depth beneath the cyclone, giving Pam a huge amount of heat energy to draw upon. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots,  and is expected to be low to moderate though Friday morning, which may allow Pam to undergo additional intensification. The 2 pm EDT Thursday official intensity forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Pam topping out with 175 mph winds, which would make it the 3rd strongest storm on record in the waters east of Australia. Intense tropical cyclones like Pam typically undergo one or more eyewall replacement cycles, during which a second, outer eyewall forms and contracts inward toward the eye, choking off the old, inner eyewall. During this time, the cyclone's intensity typically weakens, and Pam will likely reach its peak intensity once one of these cycles begins. However, Thursday afternoon microwave satellite images showed no signs that Pam is ready for an eyewall replacement cycle. These cycles are not predictable by current forecast models.

Impacts of Pam
Pam is likely to be one of the most destructive natural disasters in Vanuatu's history. The storm will likely pass over or very close to the three small, southernmost islands of Vanuatu on Friday, and these islands will suffer extreme devastation if a direct hit occurs. These islands are Erromango (population 2,000), Tanna (pop 29,000) and Aneiytum (pop 900). The 12Z Thursday run of the usually-reliable European model shows a direct hit occurring on the more northerly island of Efate, the most populated island in Vanuatu (66,000), where the capital city of Port Vila is located. Even if the islands miss a direct hit by Category 4 - 5 eyewall winds, hurricane-force winds will extend out 40 miles from the center, and will likely cause heavy damage to all of these islands. Regardless of Pam's track, its waves will cause major coastal damage; the significant wave height of the storm was 44 feet at 2pm EDT Thursday. Storm surge is also a concern, as well as extreme flash flooding from Pam's torrential rains. After passing Vanuatu, Pam is likely to weaken significantly, but the storm may still be capable of bringing tropical storm-force winds to New Zealand on Sunday. High surf causing erosion and coastal damage will be the main threat from Pam to New Zealand, though.

Pam has already caused significant flooding on the low-lying island of Tuvalu, located over 700 miles northeast of the storm, as documented by storm surge expert Hal Needham in his blog. Since Tuvalu is located in an area with very deep water offshore, this flooding was likely due to large waves crashing onshore and running up inland, rather than an actual storm surge from winds piling up water over a shallow coastal shelf.

Links
Port Vila, Vanuatu webcam (thanks go to wunderground member Huracan94 for posting this link.)

Vanuatu weather from the Australian BOM

Porta Vila info -- Click on "Details" in the wind section to view past wind data.

Vanuatu Meteorological Service


A Personal Weather Station at Port Vila, Vanuatu is in the path of Pam, and had received 0.57" of rain from the storm as of 4 pm EDT Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters, truly impressive. Hope everyone there has taken this seriously.
Thank You Dr; you pretty much covered the current status. Here is the most recent Rammb IR shot:

Am having a hard time believing Pam is really a category 5 with 918 mb pressure, while strong, it looks more in the 125-130 mph intensity.


This is the problem with satellite estimates. And let's not forget how many times the NHC recon found substantially different pressure and/or wind speed than a recent satellite observation of a system.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
5:05 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 23.0S 113.7E or 15 kilometers north northwest of Coral Bay and 210 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 15 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards towards Coral Bay. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone until later this morning before slowly weakening.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are likely near Coral Bay and surrounding areas over the next 6 hours as the cyclone moves southwards along the northern parts of the west coast of Western Australia. Wind gusts to 180 km/h were observed at Learmonth earlier this morning. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon during Friday morning.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the western Pilbara coast and northern Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Mardie around to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth, Onslow and Coral Bay, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast or passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Mardie to Jurien Bay and inland to Paynes Find, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and adjacent inland parts of the western Pilbara, western Gascoyne and northern Central West Districts
Thanks dok...very strong cyclones out there...
If this were summer, Bavi would of been big problems. You can see the entire W PAC, full of stratocumulus clouds
(shallow cloud layers due to drier, stable air above preventing continued vertical development), also cooler SST's, but warm enough to sustain a tropical system. This system would of been a big worry for Guam, if SST were up in the summer, fall seasons range, when usually the waters here are at there warmest. But this system looks to stay a shallow system. JTWC peaks it at 60 knots, at 72 hours. Pretty impressive indeed, on satellite imagery. This insane huge MJO is probably its reason for development, just as our other ones in the southern hemisphere.








Am having a hard time believing Pam is really a category 5 with 918 mb pressure, while strong, it looks more in the 125-130 mph intensity.



Vanuatu Meteorological Services has the pressure at 920 hPa, slightly higher than the RSMC.

What is THAT???

Anyway, thank you Dr. Masters for the new entry. This cyclone is not something to be taken lightly that's for sure, and with it continuing to drift SSW Vanuatu could be in serious trouble.


Vanuatu Meteorological Services cyclone map.
These are about as optimum conditions as you could ask for an intense tropical storm (hard to believe that the storm is currently under moderate sheer the way she looks):

Sea surface temperatures are near 30C (86F), which is about 1C (1.8F) above average.Warm waters extend to great depth beneath the cyclone, giving Pam a huge amount of heat energy to draw upon. Wind shearis currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and is expected to be low to moderate though Friday morning, which may allow Pam to undergo additional intensification. The 2 pm EDT Thursday official intensity forecastfrom the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Pam topping out with 175 mph winds, which would make it the 3rd strongest storm on record in the waters east of Australia
Doc, thanks a lot for this very good but truly terrifying update!
Quoting: "The 12Z Thursday run of the usually-reliable European model shows a direct hit occurring on the more northerly island of Efate, the most populated island in Vanuatu (66,000), where the capital city of Port Vila is located." As far as I could see, ECMWF (and GFS as well) were very consistent with a more westerly track of Pam.
Quoting 3. Jedkins01:

Am having a hard time believing Pam is really a category 5 with 918 mb pressure, while strong, it looks more in the 125-130 mph intensity.


This is the problem with satellite estimates. And let's not forget how many times the NHC recon found substantially different pressure and/or wind speed than a recent satellite observation of a system.

I agree. Most of the current intensity estimates rely on some form of the Dvorak technique, which I think at this point is putting too much of an emphasis on the coldness of cloudtops rather than Pam's actual structure. Yes, the cloudtops are very cold, but the lack of a warm eye for this long is a signal that some eyewall weakness still exists, which can be backed up by microwave imagery.



As for current intensity, I'd probably go with 120 kt or so, but with a disproportionately low pressure (915 as a random guess?) due to the very large wind field and low background pressures.
Scary frightening warning .... God love those in her path


Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 16 for
TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 16 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:07am VUT Friday 13 March 2015
for TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces .

At 5:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM was located near
14.9 degrees South 169.5 degrees East. This is about 240 KM east southeast of
Vanua Lava and 145 KM east northeast of Maewo. PAM is positioned at the bottom
center of the square letter I, number 4 (I,4) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone
tracking map. Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM moved in a south southwest direction
at 15 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 920 hPa. Winds close to the
centre are estimated at 215 KM/HR. Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM is forecast to
be at 16.5 degrees South 169.4 degrees East within the next 06 to 12 hours.

Damaging Gale force winds of 75 KM/HR gusting to 105 KM/HR will affect TORBA,
SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA and extending to SHEFA province tonight and tomorrow.
Winds over PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA provinces will increase to 160 KM/HR
within the next 6 to 12 hours as the system continues to move south southwest
and intensifying further.

Damaging gale force winds of 75 KM/HR will affect TAFEA province within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 13 Mar) 15.7S, 169.3E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 13 Mar) 16.5S, 169.4E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 13 Mar) 17.4S, 169.5E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 14 Mar) 18.5S, 169.9E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 14 Mar) 20.8S, 171.0E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 15 Mar) 23.4S, 173.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)

Damaging winds and very rough to phenomenal seas with heavy swells will affect
TORBA, PENAMA, SANMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces. Heavy to torrential
rainfall and flooding, including flash flooding are expected over low lying
areas and areas close to the river banks. Landslide is also expected. Coastal
flooding is also expected near the coastal areas.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises people, that
Red Alert in now current for TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA and MALAMPA provinces. Yellow
Alert is in effect for SHEFA and TAFEA provinces. For action on this alerts, call
the office of the NDMO on 22699 or 33366.

The next warning on Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM will be issued at 9:00am
tonight. People over TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces
should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest information on this system.

This warning is also available on VMGD's website:www.meteo.gov.vu

I think this insane 7-8-1 MJO pulse should cause insane blocking in the WPO/EPO/AO/NAO/PNA domains for late March/early April. I wouldn't doubt if Central Florida sees freezing temps one last time or Boston gets an April Fools or Easter Blizzard!
Than Doc...Do not believe it will get to near what the GFS had forecast..Not pressure wise anyway...:)
Thanks for the update Doc! Pam is something Vanuatu needs to watch very closely! This is from the JTWC's latest advisory:


WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 169.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
Quoting 14. 1900hurricane:


I agree. Most of the current intensity estimates rely on some form of the Dvorak technique, which I think at this point is putting too much of an emphasis on the coldness of cloudtops rather than Pam's actual structure. Yes, the cloudtops are very cold, but the lack of a warm eye for this long is a signal that some eyewall weakness still exists, which can be backed up by microwave imagery.



As for current intensity, I'd probably go with 120 kt or so, but with a disproportionately low pressure (915 as a random guess?) due to the very large wind field and low background pressures.



From the last blog: see that little band to the west? When it formed, it had the appearance of a second eyewall forming (especially just west of the eye) but now it doesn't.
Nice pic of the bigger picture in the South Pacific at the moment.  See everyone in the am and hoping that the authorities in Vanuato took steps, and/or assistance from third-parties, to help with preparation and/or evacuation.  No way to actually prepare for a Cat 5 and the devastating destruction it will bring.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
7:39 AM EST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two located at 13.4S 145.0E or 100 kilometers north northeast of Cape Melville and 230 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 2 knots.

Cyclone Nathan has maintained its intensity as a category 2 cyclone and is drifting slowly northward off the northeast Queensland coast north of Cape Melville. It is expected to begin moving east away from the coast today.

GALES currently extend out to approximately 170 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 100 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES are could develop about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville today, and could develop south towards Cape Flattery this afternoon depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center later today or tonight. It is now very unlikely that anywhere on the Queensland coast would experience these winds.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to around 70 kilometers from the center. There is now only a low probability that coastal areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville would experience these winds.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts this morning before gradually easing towards the end of today as the cyclone moves away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Cape Flattery today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery
22. JRRP
Here three (of many) videos of one of those three southern islands of Vanuatu, mentioned in the entry: Tanna. First one is a bit more touristic and partly recorded by a drone (read the nice text at the end), second one shows the inland with the volcano (and a lot of ash which might be prone to become a mudslide), third one (a bit strange and from 2010) shows the very - let's say - native way of life and thinking down there. Hate to see those folks in the eyewall of a Cat5!






In the past 100 years the British monarchy has lost a lot of its shine. However, in a tiny corner of the South Pacific, one royal is worshipped. A far cry from Britain's most controversial prince...
BTW, there is a unusual connection to the US as well: the cult of John Frum. - Boy, I've learned a lot today about Vanuatu, which until now was just a the name of some remote islands for me, connected with earthquakes and volcanoes ;-)


Moreover: Vanuatu's Broken Dreams: Cruise ships visiting Vanuatu should have brought prosperity to islanders, but Dateline asks why they're seeing so little benefit.
Forecasting the intensity of Pam over the next day or so is going to be tough. As previously pointed out, dry air continues to serve as an issue for the cyclone, with intermittent shots getting directly into the inner core. This is preventing the eye from becoming symmetrical and warm. As long as this continues to be the case, Pam should only intensify slowly to steadily. On the other hand, if we see a reprieve in dry air entrainment and the eyewall solidifies itself, Pam could ramp up in a big way in a short period of time as the GFS forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #29
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
6:05 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 6:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 23.2S 113.7E or 9 kilometers southwest of Coral Bay and 190 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 13 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards across the Coral Bay area. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone until later this morning before slowly weakening.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are likely near Coral Bay and surrounding areas and may extend to Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon during Friday morning.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/hr are currently being experienced along the western Pilbara coast and northern Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Exmouth and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Mardie to Jurien Bay and inland to Paynes Find, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton and adjacent inland parts of the western Pilbara, western Gascoyne and Central West Districts
Quoting 24. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Forecasting the intensity of Pam over the next day or so is going to be tough. As previously pointed out, dry air continues to serve as an issue for the cyclone, with intermittent shots getting directly into the inner core. This is preventing the eye from becoming symmetrical and warm. As long as this continues to be the case, Pam should only intensify slowly to steadily. On the other hand, if we see a reprieve in dry air entrainment and the eyewall solidifies itself, Pam could ramp up in a big way in a short period of time as the GFS forecast.



All she needs to do is block the dry air with a steady burst of convection around the center and she'll become a runaway train. She's trying to do that right now by the looks of it.
Quoting 16. weatherbro:

I think this insane 7-8-1 MJO pulse should cause insane blocking in the WPO/EPO/AO/NAO/PNA domains for late March/early April. I wouldn't doubt if Central Florida sees freezing temps one last time or Boston gets an April Fools or Easter Blizzard!
Yip...Like someone opened the bombay doors..




Other views of Port Vila (Webcams)

Thanks for the post Dr Masters, it has an ominous vibe to it, let's hope Vanuatu fares better than expected!
Side-note: Olwyn looks set for a trek down the western coast of Australia, could end up doing a lot of damage while everyone is focused on Pam
Latest visible image of Pam.

Thank you Dr Masters.
Thank you Dr. Masters. Wow this Tropical Cyclone reminds of the doomsday situation with New Orleans in 2004 that was a simulation and its quite interesting that it had the name Pam.
Camera 2 - Joint-Court Tower visibility is going down, 30mins ago you could see a bit of another island on the upper left, now its gone white and closing in
You know, with all these webcams across Port Vila, I wonder if we'll see any waterspouts/tornadoes? I'd imagine that the southwest quadrant of a cyclone in the southern hemisphere is equivalent to the northwestern quad in the northern hemisphere, and that tends to be where the 'nados are in tropical systems up here.

EDIT: Ok, the southwestern quadrant is equivalent to the northEASTERN quadrant. Looking at tropical systems spinning clockwise is frying my brain I suppose :P

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
7:06 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 7:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 23.4S 113.6E or 35 kilometers south southwest of Coral Bay and 165 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards across the Coral Bay area. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone until later this morning before slowly weakening.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are likely near Coral Bay and surrounding areas and may extend to Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon during Friday morning.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the far western Pilbara coast and northern Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Exmouth and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Onslow to Jurien Bay
Pam already left a damaging impact on the Solomon Islands, far away from its center to the (north)west while developing.

Pieter Torrez @PieterTorrez 21 min ago
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM DESTROYED PARTS OF REEF ISLANDS (Solomon Islands)

Pam hits Tikopia
Published: 12 March 2015
CYCLONE Pam had done damages to the remote Eastern Islands as it persists on over the region in past four days.
It has been described as double impact to the Solomon Islands as Tropical cyclone Nathan re-curving back into the northern Coral Seas to join his partner Tropical Cyclone Pam.
Speaking from the remote Temotu outer Island of Tikopia, one of the village elders, Richell Sorifon said; "over the past few days, almost everything here were grounded; our houses and our gardens".
He said that they were well versed with cyclone sessions and has well prepared for.
"We were well prepared for that." Despite of the damages, we were sheltering out in our makeshift camps prepared for cyclones.
"No injuries were yet reported, as the cyclone is getting strong here every passing minutes. We don't know what would happened as the night falls".
Meanwhile reports reaching this paper from Lata Meteorological office said that Santa Cruz and the Reef Islands also experienced heavy rain and strong winds with damages.
Lata Met Officer, Luke Lapoe said, "Reports reaching us from these two main Islands, winds and heavy rain were persisting on. Fruit trees and gardens where people rely on were damaged." ...
Ok, do NOT look at Klems-Hill Tower Cam 1 if you have Arachnophobia XD
The eye looks like ?

Cyclone Olwyn continues to slide down the western Australia coast and appears to have strengthened quite a touch after making its first landfall further north. Satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS suggest that the storm may be packing winds of 115 knots, much higher than the current operational JTWC intensity guidance.

Quoting skycycle:
Side-note: Olwyn looks set for a trek down the western coast of Australia, could end up doing a lot of damage while everyone is focused on Pam


I totally phased out Olywn while watching Pam. The area Olywn is impacting right now isn't too heavily populated, but the population increases the further south you go. This is definitely a significant problem for west Australia. Absolutely crazy tropical weather going down in southern hemisphere.

Quoting 41. CybrTeddy:



I totally phased out Olywn while watching Pam. The area Olywn is impacting right now isn't too heavily populated, but the population increases the further south you go. This is definitely a significant problem for west Australia. Absolutely crazy tropical weather going down in southern hemisphere.




Agreed, and it's in a rush too, steaming its way down the coast towards more populated locations (in the context of Western Australia, of course).
Vanuatu has experienced a really difficult history. A volcanic eruption which may have been the largest in the past 1,000 years split the main island in the middle around 1453. The climate impacts were experienced worldwide, as seen in numerous historical records. The sulfate spike which appears in the Antarctic ice cores was quite large.

HERE and HERE are additional information.
Cyclone Pam's eye has been clearing out quite steadily for the past few hours and overall the storm has gained a better convective appearance. Extremely cold cloud tops continue to dominate the central dense overcast, and looks like we're nearing the nowcasting/wobble watching phase as Pam nears Vanuatu. On the broader scale, it looks like the favorable conditions over the eastern Eastern Hemisphere had ignited quite a flurry of tropical cyclones these past few days. Here are some images, the first produced using McIDAS-V and the second from earth.nullschool.net.



The eye is warming:

Does anyone has pics or maps of the island of Vanuatu?
Quoting 46. Tropicsweatherpr:

Does anyone has pics or maps of the island of Vanuatu?


Quoting 46. Tropicsweatherpr:

Does anyone has pics or maps of the island of Vanuatu?

Do you have Google Earth downloaded? I was looking at Vanuatu earlier today using it, looked at tons of photos on there.
Quoting 49. LAbonbon:


Do you have Google Earth downloaded? I was looking at Vanuatu earlier today using it, looked at tons of photos on there.

Went and there is plenty of info and pics. Thanks for the tip.
This does not look good, I really hope people in this area took immediate action, with the arrival of this monster. As I posted the map of the island chain to Tropicsweatherpr, I noticed the city's capital Port-Vila lies directly in the storms current motion. I also noticed that the storm's appearance looks better then its entire lifetime with a better defined eye by the hour, and incredible cold cloud tops surrounding its eye. If this storm doesn't make a turn south within the next hour or so, and continues moving SSW then it does not look good for Vanuatu's capital.





Quoting 51. 882MB:

This does not look good, I really hope people in this area took immediate action, with the arrival of this monster. As I posted the map of the island chain to Tropicsweatherpr, I noticed the city's capital Port-Vila lies directly in the storms current motion. I also noticed that the storm's appearance looks better then its entire lifetime with a better defined eye by the hour, and incredible cold cloud tops surrounding its eye. If this storm doesn't make a turn south within the next hour or so, and continues moving SSW then it does not look good for Vanuatu's capital.


There's still quite a few people walking around and driving. Maybe they're rushing to do last minute preps, but honestly it's time to go home (or ideally, a shelter) and hunker down now.
So much for the ragged eye....really starting to clean up and looking more like a cat 5 now.... Although CDO warmed a touch.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
7:56 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 23.6S 113.6E or 55 kilometers south southwest of Coral Bay and 145 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards across the Coral Bay area. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are likely near Coral Bay and surrounding areas and may extend to between Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon during Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 km/h may extend to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the far western Pilbara coast and northern Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Onslow to Jurien Bay
Link
Getting very dark...it's all downhill from here.
If Pam keeps the current course, the western eyewall will more or less line up with the capital, could be that it shifts a bit but at this point its gonna be damage no matter what. Hope they are well prepared.
Audio report: Cyclone Pam to affect at least half Vanuatu's population
Updated 13 March 2015, 11:01 AEDT

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is closely monitoring the cyclone situation across the PacificThe head of OCHA's regional office for the Pacific, Sune Gudnitz, says more than 200,000 people will be affected in Vanuatu. Cyclone Pam to affect at least half Vanuatu's population (Credit: ABC)
Presenter: Richard Ewart, Speaker: Sune Gudnitz, OCHA's regional office for the Pacific
Added some more links:

Vanuatu weather from the Australian BOM

Porta Vila info -- Click on "Details" in the wind section to view past wind data.

Vanuatu Meteorological Service

Jeff Masters
Radio NZ has some pretty current broadcast clips regarding Vanuatu & Pam on their site. They include interviews regarding communication with vulnerable populations, evacuations to stronger buildings, unicef, etc.

Radio New Zealand International - Vanuatu in cyclone red alert

(Scroll down for recent broadcast clips, each about 5 minutes)
Quoting 58. JeffMasters:

Added some more links:
Vanuatu weather from the Australian BOM
Porta Vila info -- Click on "Details" in the wind section to view past wind data.
Vanuatu Meteorological Service
Jeff Masters

Thank you. A quote from the last link (Vanuatu Meteorological Service) ;-)
"Whatever the weather, have a good day". Vanuatu Meteorological Services
Quoting 56. skycycle:

If Pam keeps the current course, the western eyewall will more or less line up with the capital, could be that it shifts a bit but at this point its gonna be damage no matter what. Hope they are well prepared.

Yes, Pam keeps on to be obviously west of its supposed track, although they always adjust the latest forecast points according to reality :-(
Click forecast points: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/flas h-rgb-short.html

Good night with this, and all thoughts for Vanuatu - and of course the people affected by the Australian cyclones as well!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
9:00 AM JST March 13 2015
=================================
Near Marshall Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (992 hPa) located at 8.7N 161.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 10.8N 154.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truk waters (Chuuk)
48 HRS: 12.2N 147.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 12.7N 140.8E- 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:01 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 9:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three (960 hPa) located at 23.6S 113.6E or 75 kilometers south southwest of Coral Bay and 120 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards towards Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.
Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/hr are likely near Cape Cuvier and surrounding areas during Friday morning and may extend to Carnarvon and surrounding areas during this afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 km/h may extend further south to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the northern and central Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 26.4S 113.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 30.0S 115.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 38.0S 120.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 39.0S 126.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
An eye remains apparent as TC Olwyn moves along the northern west coast of Western Australia, and in fact the last two satellite images [2230UTC and 2330UTC] show better definition than previous images, indicating that some intensification has occurred. The system is also being tracked on radar so confidence in the position is high. Note that Learmonth radar is still not operational.

Dvorak: Eye analysis using recent enhanced infrared imagery has a center embedded in LG, yielding DT=5.0. Eye temperature is OW surrounded by black, giving an eye adjustment of +0.5, but a ragged eye adjusts this back down to a DT of 5.0. This is consistent with MET. DT=FT=5.0. Intensity is set at at 80 knots [10-min mean]. Observations from Learmonth AWS of wind gusts to 180 km/h correspond well with the current intensity estimate of the system, given the intensification that has occurred since then.

Olwyn is located near the west coast just to the south southwest of Coral Bay and is moving south to southwest at around 25 km/h. It is likely to remain close to the west coast during Friday. The weakening of Olwyn will depend on whether the system is located over land or further west over the ocean. If the system does remain over the ocean then wind and storm tide impacts down the west coast will be significant.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south over the next 12 hours. After this the system turns to the south southeast and increases further in speed. Olwyn is likely to undergo ETT due to interaction with an approaching trough and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes. Heavy rain and squally winds are possible over a large part of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Onslow to Jurien Bay
Amazing outflow and very impressive CDO with Tropical Cyclone Pam. Let's see if she can clear that eye out. If Pam can do that and wall off dry air as long as possible, then the GFS solution may not have been as crazy as it cracked up to be. This is a very intense cyclone and it still could get stronger. Prayers for those in its path.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
11:00 AM EST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 13.4S 145.0E or 100 kilometers north northeast of Cape Melville and 230 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 1 knot.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan has maintained its intensity as a category 2 cyclone and remains slow-moving off the northeast Queensland coast north of Cape Melville. It is expected to begin moving east away from the coast later today.

GALES currently extend out to approximately 170 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 100 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES could develop about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville today, and could develop south towards Cape Flattery this afternoon depending on the track the cyclone takes. Gales may persist during Saturday, particularly between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery, including Lizard island, until the cyclone has moved sufficiently far enough away from the coast.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center later today or tonight. It is now very unlikely that these winds will be experienced anywhere on the Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to around 70 kilometers from the center. There is now only a low probability that coastal areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville would experience these winds.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts this morning before gradually easing later tonight as the cyclone begins to move away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Cape Flattery today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.3S 145.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.2S 146.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.1S 149.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.5S 152.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
===========================
Generally satellite imagery has continued to depict the effects of northeasterly shear on Nathan and 1800Z CIMSS winds continue to analyze roughly 25 knots of deep layer shear over the system. Satellite imagery during the last 6 hours has shown a renewed burst of convection near the low level circulation center allowing the vortex to maintain intensity.

Position is fair, based primarily on the 2100Z microwave images and persistence of a very slow northerly motion.

Intensity is set at 55 knots [10 minute mean]. The 1200 UTC ASCAT pass indicated 50-55 knots. A Dvorak shear pattern would show the center now more than 1/3 degree within the deep convection and it has persisted for a few hours, so DT is 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a steady trend over 24 hours. PAT is 3.5 and Final T/CI is also 3.5.

The expectation is that the deep layer shear should be undergoing a reducing trend and becoming more favorable for development during the next 12 to 24 hours. Outflow remains good, particularly to the south and the cyclone remains over warm waters.

It is anticipated that the mid-level ridge which has been the dominant steering influence in recent days will break down ahead of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia in the next 12 hours or so. As a result, it is expected that the steering pattern will shift and lead to the system adopting more of an eastwards track today. Observed 500 geopotential heights at Willis Island and Townsville have fallen during the last 12 to 18 hours, giving some indication this process may be occurring. numerical weather prediction guidance depicts a reduction in the NE flow over the system at 200 HPA from about 0000 UTC, so steady intensification is forecast from that time.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery
In past years, this blog tended to go into snooze mode when the Atlantic hurricane season ended. These days, it is truly the go-to resource for year-round information on tropical cyclones. What a great trove of fascinating data tonight for Pam! Bravo!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FIVE (11F)
12:00 PM FST March 13 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Five (910 hPa) located at 15.7S 169.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Eye well defined and convective tops cooling. System lies in a moderate sheared environment with strong upper divergence. Outflow good. Pam is being steered southwest by a northeast deep layer mean wind flow. Cyclonic circulation extends to 250 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with DG eye, cold medium grey surround, yields DT=7.0, MET =7.0 and PT=6.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwest and then southeastwards.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.8S 169.3E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 20.6S 170.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 27.4S 175.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
I posted a new update on Olewyn and Pam.

Link

Latest visible satellite imagery of Pam. It looks the eye's clearing up a bit.




"What about me guys??"
EDIT: next frame finally came in.

Will the ISS fly over Pam?
Very impressive Cody.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #34
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
10:03 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================
At 10:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 24.0S 113.6E or 95 kilometers south of Coral Bay and 100 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 14 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards towards Carnarvon. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 kilometres per hour are likely at Cape Cuvier and surrounding areas during Friday morning and may extend to Carnarvon and surrounding areas during this afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour may extend further south to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced along the northern and central Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.
Quoting 72. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EDIT: next frame finally came in.




Yikes...!
BB - Those arctic article are worrisome to me. And things that are discussed in the local papers here often.



Vanuatu Meteorological Services has dropped the central pressure of Pam to 904 hPa.
Quoting 75. BaltimoreBrian:

Very impressive Cody.

Looks like the eye is headed straight for Efate, the most populous island in Vanuatu. Dr. Masters mentioned there was a Personal Weather Station in Port Vila; it'll be interesting to see how high winds get.

Pam is one scary as heck storm.
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like the eye is headed straight for Efate, the most populous island in Vanuatu. Dr. Masters mentioned there was a Personal Weather Station in Port Vila; it'll be interesting to see how high winds get.




may actually be going north of island
5 minute warning on Atlas V launch. See Skyepony's post #67!
Quoting 72. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EDIT: next frame finally came in.




That...and Friday the 13th.
Looks like a successful launch of the Atlas V rocket. Awesome... Good work!!!
Man look at that buzzsaw. Outflow looks good on all quadrants. She may be a little bit shy, but putting on a damn good show for us tonight. What a life Pam is having.

PAM




Typhoon Haiyan 2013

Quoting 53. Abacosurf:

So much for the ragged eye....really starting to clean up and looking more like a cat 5 now.... Although CDO warmed a touch.



Interesting how CDO traded for better structure.
Quoting 84. Grothar:



That...and Friday the 13th.
Charley came through on Friday the 13th as well, will never forget that date.
Quoting 88. Grothar:

PAM




Typhoon Haiyan 2013






Yikes! Pam's really meaning business now!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
10:58 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 24.2S 113.6E or 120 kilometers south of Coral Bay and 75 kilometers north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it moves southwards towards Carnarvon. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are possible in Carnarvon and surrounding areas over the next few hours, before easing during the afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 km/h may extend further south to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the northern and central Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Exmouth to Jurien Bay
Quoting 91. TimTheWxMan:





Yikes! Pam's really meaning business now!


Some of those islands are so flat, I am really worried. They are some of the friendliest people in the world. I don't think they have had a storm as strong as this one could be.
Quoting 88. Grothar:

PAM




Typhoon Haiyan 2013



Scary how they seem to be becoming more and more alike as the hours go by...
Quoting 71. JrWeathermanFL:



"What about me guys??"


Jesus, why is my tropical counterpart so ugly? Come on brother!
Quoting 95. Astrometeor:



Jesus, why is my tropical counterpart so ugly? Come on brother!


Genetics...

Oh wait. You mean why is the storm so ugly... Maybe because it isn't Hurricane season yet and the conditions are not right for a Cat 5 monster in the Atlantic, yet.
Quoting 93. Grothar:



Some of those islands are so flat, I am really worried. They are some of the friendliest people in the world. I don't think they have had a storm as strong as this one could be.



Actually, most of them have higher terrain, but with it comes a risk of mudslides.
Quoting 95. Astrometeor:



Jesus, why is my tropical counterpart so ugly? Come on brother!



My two namesake tropical cyclones were mere tropical storms so i feel your pain!
I may be posting a new blog shortly regarding any possible landfalls on Vanuatu. If you follow the link Doc posted earlier, Link it'll take you to the page showing port vila's surge levels, winds (kts) and pressure.


By the way, on this live cam, was that building on the bottom right always like that? Part of the top floor came off and i didn't see it earlier.


Link

This is definitely worth staying up for.

Quoting 101. TimTheWxMan:

I may be posting a new blog shortly regarding any possible landfalls on Vanuatu. If you follow the link Doc posted earlier, Link it'll take you to the page showing port vila's surge levels, winds (kts) and pressure.


By the way, on this live cam, was that building on the bottom right always like that? Part of the top floor came off and i didn't see it earlier.


Link




I'm tempted to make one as well. Not sure yet.
Quoting 98. Dakster:



Genetics...

Oh wait. You mean why is the storm so ugly... Maybe because it isn't Hurricane season yet and the conditions are not right for a Cat 5 monster in the Atlantic, yet.


Uh...Dak...the storm is in the Australian region...the season lasts from November 1 2014 - April 30 2015. Source
Quoting 95. Astrometeor:



Jesus, why is my tropical counterpart so ugly? Come on brother!


lmao
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
12:02 PM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 12:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 24.4S 113.5E or 55 kilometers north northwest of Carnarvon and 170 kilometers north of Denham has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it passes near Carnarvon. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are possible in Carnarvon and surrounding areas over the next few hours, before easing during the afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 km/h may extend further south to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early Friday evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the northern and central Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon. These conditions will extend further south reaching Kalbarri, Geraldton and surrounding areas overnight.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Exmouth to Jurien Bay
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:



Uh...Dak...the storm is in the Australian region...the season lasts from November 1 2014 - April 30 2015. Source


Except the Western Australian region, which the season is recorded as "all year"
Quoting 103. KoritheMan:



I'm tempted to make one as well. Not sure yet.



I will once it landfalls. Got one tab on the downtown live camera and another on port vila's storm data. Sea levels (that's what it says on the BOM page) are going down since it's more or less offshore flow. The worst of the surge will hit once the eye passes.



Still beelining towards Port Vila. <:(
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:



Uh...Dak...the storm is in the Australian region...the season lasts from November 1 2014 - April 30 2015. Source


My bad. I mistook that island above for Hispaniola. Since I didn't see lat/lon on the photo.
Quoting 110. Dakster:



My bad. I mistook that island above for Hispaniola. Since I didn't see lat/lon on the photo.


Nice. And missed seeing Australia, but they aren't that big. :D You should ask Grothar to hand the reading glasses back over. Lol.
Looks like the Independence Park cam is getting knocked out of alignment. We might lose it soon.
Link
Stay safe friends

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:12 S Lon : 168:56:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 900.1mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees
Quoting CybrTeddy:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:12 S Lon : 168:56:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 900.1mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees

Almost undoubtedly sub-900mb now, which would rank it as the 2nd strongest cyclone on record in the South Pacific behind 2002's Zoe.
does anyone know the pressure on pam?
Quoting WaterWitch11:
does anyone know the pressure on pam?

910mb via the latest update a few hours ago.
Nobody knows the pressure of Pam, really. The Dvorak reading is 7.0 which corresponds to a pressure of 898 mb in the Pacific. We need reconnaissance drones.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 890.5mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5
still estimated at 904 hPa by the current hourly advisory warning from Vanuatu Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
1:12 PM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 1:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 24.7S 113.4E or 35 kilometers northwest of Carnarvon and 135 kilometers north of Denham has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it passes just to the west of Carnarvon. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h remain possible in Carnarvon and nearby surrounding areas over the next few hours, before easing during the afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 km/h may extend further south to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early Friday evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the northern and central Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon. These conditions will extend further south reaching Kalbarri, Geraldton and surrounding areas overnight.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ningaloo to Jurien Bay, extending inland through the western Gascoyne and the Central West


Eye clearing out now.
Best hurricane movie scene ever (1937)



article in The Guardian:

Cyclone Pam: massive storm bears down on Vanuatu, with 260,000 people in its path
"Vanuatu Meteorological Services acting director David Gibson told the Guardian that Pam would be the most powerful storm ever to bear down on Vanuatu.
“As far as I can remember, this is the first [category five] cyclone to come very close to Vanuatu,” he said. “This is obviously a once-in-a-lifetime experience for most of us.”
Gibson said Uma, the last major tropical cyclone to hit Vanuatu in 1987 which left a reported 48 dead and 5,000 homeless, was a category four at its strongest."
"Care Vanuatu program manager Charlie Damon said traditional housing would be destroyed by the rare storm and widespread deaths were inevitable unless people made it to emergency shelters.
“It’s definitely high anxiety here but fortunately this cyclone has given us the longest lead time [of] any cyclone ever [to prepare],” she said.
“It has certainly given us the opportunity to be more prepared than previously. [But] the traditional housing here will not stand up to a category four or five, its thatched roofs, straw huts, really flimsy timber."
CYCLONE PAM - CAT 5

LIVE STREAMING WEBCAMS ON VANUATU

6 EXCELLENT LIVE STREAMING VIEWS ARE ON U-STREAM

GO TO U-STREAM... IN SEARCH BOX ENTER: "TELSAT"

Quoting 124. BaltimoreBrian:



well dang between advisory updates.. so the current winds at about 150 knots (1 min sustained winds)
It's sad to see that the forecast path is definitely wrong so far, and Pam is also getting stronger while heading off it's expected course, not good.

If this trend continues, the GFS intensity prog may not all be that far fetched.
Quoting 102. KoritheMan:

This is definitely worth staying up for.




Well I'm on spring break and playing a game right now, and checking in on updates, so it's definitely reasonable for me to stay up, lol.
Quoting 89. opal92nwf:


Interesting how CDO traded for better structure.


Sure but those cloud tops are still extremely cold, still very deep convection, more so than most severe thunderstorm complexes and many tropical cyclones have.
Quoting 88. Grothar:

PAM




Typhoon Haiyan 2013




Looks much more like a category 5 this evening than earlier today.
132. flsky
Remember, the strength is at the right front quadrant of the storm's direction. Worst case for these islands.
Pam is likely sub 900mb now, and is not showing any signs of deviating from its present course. It's like a car crash in slow motion, the only way I can describe it...
Quoting flsky:
Remember, the strength is at the right front quadrant of the storm's direction. Worst case for these islands.
the strongest is the SW quad is it not? Southern hemisphere
135. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu. (joined west/east Conus NOT Colorado State public product, means i hoined them)
SAT TYPE:: Fog/Low clouds
D&T:: on Animation
Name of file?, website picked it.
(600x360)GIF not playing try its webM format
(don't forget one can toggle these use arrows and space bars)
Quoting 134. SunnyDaysFla:

the strongest is the SW quad is it not? Southern hemisphere


Yeah but from the reference frame of the storm, the right side then is the SW instead of NE side.
137. flsky
Thanks for the catch guys. So maybe it won't be quite as bad as it might have been. Still a terrible situation.l
Quoting 136. Jedkins01:



Yeah but from the reference frame of the storm, the right side then is the SW instead of NE side.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah but from the reference frame of the storm, the right side then is the SW instead of NE side.


Sorry. I realized that after I posted.

Looks like the island of Epi is in the eyewall right now. Efate will be as well within the next hour.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #38
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
2:02 PM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three (960 hPa) located at 24.9S 113.4E or 25 kilometers west of Carnarvon and 115 kilometers north of Denham has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T4.5/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is tracking very close to the coast as it passes just to the west of Carnarvon. The system is expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone before slowly weakening during this afternoon.

As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h remain possible in Carnarvon and nearby surrounding areas over the next few hours, before easing during the afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 km/h may extend further south to Denham and surrounding areas during Friday afternoon and early Friday evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the northern and central Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon and surrounds. These conditions will extend further south reaching Kalbarri, Geraldton and surrounding areas overnight.

Residents between Ningaloo and Denham, including Coral Bay and Carnarvon, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Gascoyne and is expected to extend further south during Friday. Heavy rainfall and squally winds will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 28.0S 114.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 32.2S 116.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 38.4S 121.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
An eye remains apparent as TC Olwyn moves along the northern west coast of Western Australia, although a weakening trend is now evident. The system is also being tracked on radar so confidence in the position is high.

Dvorak: Eye analysis using recent enhanced infrared imagery has a center embedded in LG. Eye temperature is MG surrounded by black, with a ragged eye adjusting DT back down to 4.5. This is consistent with MET. DT=FT=4.5. CI is held at 5.0 during initial weakening. Intensity remains at 80 knots [10-min mean]. Observations from Learmonth AWS of wind gusts to 180 km/h and at Carnarvon of 146 km/h correspond with the current intensity estimate of the system, and the Carnarvon wind profiler also observed winds of almost 100 knots at 1000ft at 0430UTC.

Olwyn is located near the west coast just to the south west of Carnarvon and is moving south to southwest at around 25 km/h. It is likely to remain close to the west coast during Friday and early Saturday. The initial weakening of Olwyn will depend on how the system interacts with nearby land. Later on Friday and during Saturday, shear will increase over the system, which should accelerate the weakening.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south over the next 12 hours. After this the system turns to the south southeast and increases further in speed. Although Olwyn will weaken as it moves over southern Western Australia, squally winds and heavy rainfall are still likely to affect a large area of southern parts..

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ningaloo to Jurien Bay, extending inland through the western Gascoyne and the Central West
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
15:00 PM JST March 13 2015
=================================
Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (992 hPa) located at 9.0N 159.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 11.4N 153.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truk waters (Chuuk)
48 HRS: 12.5N 146.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 12.7N 139.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
142. emguy
Okay gang...I mean no offense here...but the cyclone is not only a southern hemisphere system... it's also a clockwise rotation not a counterclockwise one like we are used to north of the equator.

In other words...all prior posts are wrong...the worst part of the storm is the LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. Vis-a-vis the southeast side of Pam.
Using the C&K formula, and data provided by the JTWC, the central pressure of TC Pam should be near 899 hPa. Nadi is in agreement with a pressure of 900 hPa.
Quoting emguy:
Okay gang...I mean no offense here...but the cyclone is not only a southern hemisphere system... it's also a clockwise rotation not a counterclockwise one like we are used to north of the equator.

In other words...all prior posts are wrong...the worst part of the storm is the LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. Vis-a-vis the southeast side of Pam.


That does make sense
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
5:01 PM EST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (979 hPa) located at 13.3S 145.4E or 135 kilometers northeast of Cape Melville and 240 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 2 knot.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan has maintained its intensity as a category 2 cyclone and has begun to move slowly eastward. It is expected to intensify overnight as it continues to move east away from the coast.

GALES currently extend out to approximately 170 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 130 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES could develop about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville tonight, and could also develop south towards Cape Flattery as the cyclone intensifies overnight. Gales may persist during Saturday, particularly between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery, including Lizard island, until the cyclone has moved sufficiently away from the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to around 70 kilometers from the center. It is now very unlikely that these winds will be experienced anywhere on the Queensland coast.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts this evening before gradually easing later tonight as the cyclone continues to move away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Cape Flattery today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.1S 146.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.1S 147.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.3S 151.2E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 14.2S 154.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
===========================
Position is good, based on 0248UTC Microwave image. This position suggests than an eastward motion has begun.

The convective burst that occurred during the early hours of today [18-24Z] has diminished and central convection has struggled during the diurnal minimum. However, there have been some notable peripheral convective bands north and south of the system during the day.

An ASCAT pass at 23:35Z indicated 50+ knots in the northeast quadrant and a much smaller gale radii to the south compared to the north, which is combining with a gale force monsoonal flow.

0000Z CIMSS winds continue to analyze roughly 25 knots of deep layer east northeast shear over the system, which is the main factor in TC Nathan struggling to intensify. However, recent satellite imagery indicates that the system is becoming more circular and that the shear is decreasing. Outflow remains good, particularly to the south and the cyclone remains over warm waters.

Intensity is set at 55 knots [10 minute mean]. 0.6 wrap gives DT 3.0. MET and PAT agree. FT is 3.0. CI is held higher at 3.5.

TC Nathan is located in a steering neutral point between a weakening mid level ridge to the south and a strengthening west flow to its north. It is expected that the steering pattern will become dominated by the west monsoon to the north and lead the system eastwards from tonight and into the next few days.

At the same time, the deep layer shear should be undergoing a reducing trend and becoming more favorable for development during Saturday and Sunday. Outflow to the south should remain good and additionally a second outflow channel to the north may develop such that a period of rapid intensification is possible from Saturday night into Sunday. The forecast path of TC Nathan is to remain over warm waters. NE shear is again forecast to increase over the system from about Tuesday. As such, intensity is forecast to be slow overnight tonight, then develop at about a standard rate into Sunday before peaking and weakening gradually next week.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery
This is terrible. A catastrophe for those folks in the path.

Quoting 139. Huracan94:

Looks like the island of Epi is in the eyewall right now. Efate will be as well within the next hour.


Looks like a wobble or possible change in direction...

Quoting 146. HaoleboySurfEC:

This is terrible. A catastrophe for those folks in the path.


Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FIVE (11F)
18:00 PM FST March 13 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Five (900 hPa) located at 16.7S 168.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Eye well defined. System lies in a low sheared environment with strong upper divergence. Outflow good. Pam is being steered south southwest by the subtropical ridge to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends to 200 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye, cold dark grey surround, yields DT=7.0, MET =7.0 and PT=6.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model agree on a southerly movement with further intensification and gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 19.0S 169.0E - 135 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 22.1S 170.3E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 29.4S 175.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4)


Vanuatu Meteorological Services tropical cyclone track map
150. 882MB
Quoting 51. 882MB:

This does not look good, I really hope people in this area took immediate action, with the arrival of this monster. As I posted the map of the island chain to Tropicsweatherpr, I noticed the city's capital Port-Vila lies directly in the storms current motion. I also noticed that the storm's appearance looks better then its entire lifetime with a better defined eye by the hour, and incredible cold cloud tops surrounding its eye. If this storm doesn't make a turn south within the next hour or so, and continues moving SSW then it does not look good for Vanuatu's capital.








I just got back from a friends house, and am in AWWWWWW! I'm absolutely speechless. I hope everyone took action in the advance of this monster. I just hope everyone rides this out safe. Vanuatu's capital my prayers for you, and your surrounding islands, AMEN!! My blessings, and wish nothing but the best. Mother nature's power always throws us the worst, but we here because we can survive, rebuild, and learn that life is only once so live it, and appreciate it. Am just WOWWWWW!!!

Quoting 142. emguy:

Okay gang...I mean no offense here...but the cyclone is not only a southern hemisphere system... it's also a clockwise rotation not a counterclockwise one like we are used to north of the equator.

In other words...all prior posts are wrong...the worst part of the storm is the LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. Vis-a-vis the southeast side of Pam.


Not sure why you were saying all posts are previously wrong. I made note that one blogger said right side, and mentioned that right side would be correct assuming inverse polarity and a reference frame from the storm, in other words, the west quadrant is the right quadrant from the storm reference frame, but in absolute reference frame, it is indeed the left(west) quadrant.

Additionally, the other bloggers quickly noticed, so all is fine, nobody is confused, and not all previous posts of quadrants were incorrect.
This storm needs to go back to the Hell from which it came. At this point, it's so close to Port Vila that the city will end up in the eye wall no matter how hard it veers southeast. They might actually be better off getting a direct hit because at least the eye may give them a break from the wind and rain. If not, that means another half hour of battering to go through with no reprieve.
Holy smokes.


Now I regret visiting Fiji and Tonga and not Vanuatu last November. Prayers and thoughts to all those in Pam's path.
I'm speechless. What a sheer horror esp. for Efate/Port Vila and the other islands! Pam just has missed the current forecast point to the west once again. Only model which was able to get this right in the 0z run is apparently NAVGEM (I'm not sure about the latest from ECMWF):


From tropicaltidbits.com

Wow, my thoughts to those who are to be affected. Peaking in intensity right at landfall, the worst kind of storm. It's going to be absolutely devastating!
Been watching and it looks like Port Vila is going to get a direct hit no matter what small movements happen over the next 4-5 hours - eye is only 80km (50miles) from Vila. I haven't been there for a while but I can't imagine much being left - there are a handful of buildings in the main street that may structurally survive this onslaught but doubt much will be left - not sure where they will be able to evacuate the population to - if they don't there could be more like 1000's rather than 100's of fatalities.
If this westward shift continues, New Caledonia is in the firing line and maybe even New Zealand - even a Cat 2 into Auckland would be catastrophic.
According to this loop the strongest part of the eyewall is about to hit Efate right now (and a slight turn towards the south):



Edit: Watching some frames more, Pam's southwestern eyewall is losing some of its strength and shape. Winds are "lessening" a bit as well; maybe the long awaited eyewall replacement circle has started, finally? [Edit: No EWRC!] Not sure whether this is going to make any difference for poor Efate.




Tampa Bay area. The reporting station had a record high yesterday of 88.
Interview by phone:
Cyclone Pam: 'Even my hotel is shaking'
BBC, 13 March 2015 Last updated at 09:53 GMT
A category five tropical storm is affecting the island of Vanuatu.
Cyclone Pam has already hit Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands, causing significant damage.
Alice Clements from Unicef is in Port Vila on Vanuatu - and told the BBC that the island is on red alert.


28storms.com @28storms. 2 hours ago
RT @iCyclone bunker in #PortVila hotel. Concrete walls, shutters, & mattresses will keep out #CAT5 winds. #CyclonePAM


Latest on a facebook page from Port Vila:
Humans of Vanuatu:
Folks, I'll be honest. It's really bad out there. The wind is howling with a deep roar that just doesn't let up. Anyone not in shelter now is in mortal danger. Frankly, I don't think our country will make it through this without some deep scars.
Think a good thought.


Update1: Humans of Vanuatu:
The shutters are groaning like ghouls, but the power is still on, and my internet is still running full bore. Not sure how I'd be feeling if not for that....

Last update: Humans of Vanuatu:
Hi, everyone. My desktop Internet finally dropped out, and I need to keep my phone for emergencies. I'm sorry, but this will be my last post until tomorrow at the earliest. We'll keep our heads down and our hopes up. Love you all. GC

James Reynolds collects the latest from Port Vila on his twitter feed. This time he isn't there in person though (good for him!).

Another twitter feed on this: https://twitter.com/28storms

Last live streaming webcam from Port Vila, showing some weak lights heavily shaking, just went off air. None of the cams on Ustream is available any longer. What an utter nightmare for folks at this place right now :-(
162. beell
Slightly off-topic.

Verizon FiOS (all-digital, fiber- optic network directly into homes and small businesses)
drops The Weather Channel, picks up AccuWeather.
The Washington Post-March 10th, 2015/Angela Fritz

Dear Valued Verizon Customer,

Verizon’s agreements to carry The Weather Channel and Weather Scan have expired, and have not been renewed. In today’s environment, customers are increasingly accessing weather information not only from their TV but from a variety of online sources and apps. Verizon is therefore pleased to launch the new AccuWeather Network, which will be available on FiOS® TV on channel 119/619 (HD) and on our free FiOS Mobile App starting March 10, 2015. Verizon will also provide the FiOS TV WeatherBug “widget” application, which features hyper-local weather, on FiOS TV channel 49. WeatherBug can also be launched by pressing the “widget” button on the FiOS TV remote.

Sincerely,

Your Verizon Team

I've been watching this all night, and it's quickly moved toward worst case scenario in Efate and the surrounding islands, with it very easy to estimate that Pam is going to hit them with 150 mph winds, sustained, and gusts to 180.

It's sad and scary, like a slow-motion nightmare, and my prayers go out to all those islands and their people, that they can somehow withstand Pam without too great a loss of life, that aid can somehow get to them quickly enough to make a difference, and that they can find a way to inhabit and enjoy their part of the world again soonest.

Jo
Cyclone Pam now tearing through Vanuatu
Posted: 13 MAR 15 Written by: Oxfam Australia Media
Oxfam is now preparing to respond to Cyclone Pam as it begins to tear through Vanuatu, after it unexpectedly veered west at the last minute, placing a number of Vanuatu’s islands directly in the eye of the devastating storm.
With wind gusts of up to 340kmh the severe tropical cyclone has may have already passed through islands including Maewo, Ambae and Pentecost which combined have a population of nearly 30,000 people.
Cyclone Pam is now heading towards the highly populated island of Efate, which includes the Vanuatu capital Port Vila, and is due to hit there between 10pm and midnight tonight. More than 65,000 people live on this island alone. It is then likely to continue on its path through the southern islands, where more than 30,000 people live.
Oxfam’s Executive Director Helen Szoke said depending on how many people evacuated the cyclone could be devastating for Vanuatu.
“Oxfam and other humanitarian agencies are ready to respond with emergency stocks available to be moved into stricken areas if required,” Dr Szoke said.
Vanuatu Country Director Colin Collett van Rooyen, said warnings had been issued for high seas, coastal flooding and destructive winds. He said there were also major concerns for the health system, with the hospital in Port Vila prone to flash flooding in much less severe conditions.
“Port Vila was recently named in the Natural Hazards Risk Atlas and is known as the city most exposed to natural disasters in the world because it faces a combination of risks including earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding and tropical cyclones such as Cyclone Pam,” Mr Collett van Rooyen said.
“Oxfam is leading the coordination of the Vanuatu Humanitarian Team, a network of non-government humanitarian agencies, in preparing for the storm, and we will also support any response effort, working alongside the Vanuatu Government.
To support Oxfam’s response to this and other and humanitarian crises worldwide donate to Oxfam Australia’s International Crisis Fund, by calling 1800 134 134 or visiting www.oxfam.org.au/icf
Quoting 165. barbamz:




eye a little to the right of island but it doesnt really matter at this point
The eye seems to be making more of a left turn, but it's too late for Efate which is currently getting raked by the eyewall.

Updates on Radio New Zealand International:

Excerpt:

"The Category 5 storm has passed through the provinces of Torba, Penama and Malampa over Friday, although a cyclone warning remains in effect with forecast high winds, heavy rains and rough seas.

Meanwhile, Unicef in Vanuatu says it has unconfirmed reports of deaths in the outer islands from Cyclone Pam.

However authorities have been unable to contact many parts of the country.

A Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office spokesperson, Mishaen Garae Lulu said cellphone and other networks appeared to be down, and it has been difficult to collect other information from the northern provinces.

Mr Lulu said about 50 people died when Cyclone Uma struck in 1987, and he was expecting Pam's impact on the country to be worse.

Up to 4000 people across Vanuatu have taken refuge in shelters such as concrete churches and schools. Of those, 1000 are in shelters in the capital, Port Vila.

"We have evacuated over 1000 people to different evacuation centres and we've just called off that process at the moment," Mr Lulu said
."
I sure hope this turns alright for Vanuatu. I don't know a whole lot about the geography, building codes, preparation methods, etc. of that nation, but if they pull through this in decent shape they can get through just about anything.

From Radio New Zealand International:

Cyclone damage in Solomon Islands
Updated at 8:35 pm on 13 March 2015
Solomon Islands is taking stock of the aftermath of Cyclone Pam with reports of serious damages in the country's eastern province.

Trees and crops have been flattened, with residents sheltering in school buildings and caves as the Category 5 storm destroyed their homes.
Solomon Islands National Disaster Management Office Deputy Director Jonathan Tafiariki said Tikopia Island was one of the worst affected.
"We have been informed that now the island is more like a desert again, since they have experienced strong winds since yesterday," he said.
"So that means we have all the food gardens and most of the trees have been blown down."
Mr Tafiariki said other islands have reported extensive destruction and damage to houses but so far there had been no loss of life.
He said initial relief efforts from the disaster management office would focus on food, water and medical supplies but ongoing severe weather conditions were delaying the response.
'Some people have been injured'
Another spokesperson, Brian Tom, told Checkpoint that more than 3000 households had been affected, with some houses damaged or destroyed - and reports of injuries.
"Some people have been injured from the fallen trees [and] houses that were destroyed by the strong winds of the tropical cyclone."
Mr Tom said Tikopia and Anuta bore the full force of the storm.
He said the people of Tikopia had lost 90 percent of their food crops and fruit trees, and their water was contaminated, but the weather was still too rough to launch a boat with emergency supplies.
He said all phone lines to Anuta were down and they had no information about how the island has fared.
Although GFS doesn't show it the Euro shows a massive pattern change late next week partly because of the MJO coming in and the AO tanking. Euro control even brings the Freeze line near the FL/GA border. Euro is also much wetter than the GFS especially across FL from Wednesday on next week. Bottomline keep a watch out next week and don't be fooled by all of this warm weather as Winter is going to make an abrupt return late next week across the eastern US.

can you imagine if andrew or even worse a large cat 5 like pam would do to s. florida?
Kinda awkward when you have so many comments that you want to vote up, yet don't want to vote them up at the same time :\
Port Vila is getting hammered, though they should be in the eye soon thankfully.

EDIT: Looks like the eye could skirt around the outside of the island instead based on that last frame in satellite imagery. Crud, that's even worse. They'll be stuck in the eyewall. :(

Saved current pic: Pam's eyewall brushes Efate, or better (means: worse): is over Efate.

Terra Satellite caught Olwyn this morning.
Weren't some people on here yesterday talking about how they want the cyclone to intensify even more? Totally different attitude this morning..
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:

Although GFS doesn't show it the Euro shows a massive pattern change late next week partly because of the MJO coming in and the AO tanking. Euro control even brings the Freeze line near the FL/GA border. Euro is also much wetter than the GFS especially across FL from Wednesday on next week. Bottomline keep a watch out next week and don't be fooled by all of this warm weather as Winter is going to make an abrupt return late next week across the eastern US.


Little late to the party, as JB has been saying this for over a week, but still a good forecast on your part.
As expected the Port Vila, Vanuatu webcam and Wunderground personal weather station stopped working over night.
Quoting 176. washingtonian115:

Weren't some people on here yesterday talking about how they want the cyclone to intensify even more? Totally different attitude this morning..


It's so easy to lose your sense of the gravity of the situation when you're watching it happen safe behind a computer screen on the other side of the world. Human nature, I suppose.
Quoting NativeSun:
Little late to the party, as JB has been saying this for over a week, but still a good forecast on your part.


Weather channel has been talking about it for days.
Quoting 176. washingtonian115:

Weren't some people on here yesterday talking about how they want the cyclone to intensify even more? Totally different attitude this morning..



Euro beginning to show snow in the 10 to 15 day period for DC.

Quoting 177. NativeSun:

Little late to the party, as JB has been saying this for over a week, but still a good forecast on your part.


I haven't looked at JB's video's for awhile as he can get really annoying watching his videos but anyways anytime you see a MJO this intense that means it is going to have implications for the US down the road so i hope people haven't gotten to excited with planting their Spring plants especially further north.
Quoting 180. Sfloridacat5:



Weather channel has been talking about it for days.


It's funny as the GFS and Euro have 2 totally different weather patterns across the US later next week infact the pattern the Euro shows is what one would expect with the MJO moving in although not as intense as it is now but still maintaining decent intensity.
Here's the GFS temp forecast I posted last weekend showing the upcoming cold weather.

Several members were discussing it last weekend.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's funny as the GFS and Euro have 2 totally different weather patterns across the US later next week infact the pattern the Euro shows is what one would expect with the MJO moving in although not as intense as it is now but still maintaining decent intensity.


Talking about the upcoming cold weather pattern across the East.
It's been a discussion for the past week in the blog and on TWC.
Quoting 176. washingtonian115:

Weren't some people on here yesterday talking about how they want the cyclone to intensify even more? Totally different attitude this morning..



Yes, sad to say people ARE dying and/or having their world turned up side down by this monster. I don't know much about the topography there but the Keys would be a clean slate if this were to happen here.
Quoting 185. Sfloridacat5:



Talking about the upcoming cold weather pattern across the East.
It's been a discussion for the past week in the blog and on TWC.


I wouldn't know I don't watch TWC but the pattern is pretty easy to forecast with such a strong MJO and crashing AO. This pattern always favors a deep trough across the East. The difference between the GFS and Euro is the Euro is digging the trough deeper into the southern US where as the GFS digs it across New England.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Yes, sad to say people ARE dying and/or having their world turned up side down by this monster. I don't know much about the topography there but the Keys would be a clean slate if this were to happen here.


Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Yes, sad to say people ARE dying and/or having their world turned up side down by this monster. I don't know much about the topography there but the Keys would be a clean slate if this were to happen here.


The Porta Vila weather station is at an elevation of 350 ft. So that's a good sign there's some elevation.
But there are some really small islands not even on the map. Hopefully people have evacuated the really small islands because they will be under water when the surge hits.
Quoting 186. ChillinInTheKeys:



Yes, sad to say people ARE dying and/or having their world turned up side down by this monster. I don't know much about the topography there but the Keys would be a clean slate if this were to happen here.

see 1935
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I wouldn't know I don't watch TWC but the pattern is pretty easy to forecast with such a strong MJO and crashing AO. This pattern always favors a deep trough across the East. The difference between the GFS and Euro is the Euro is digging the trough deeper into the southern US where as the GFS digs it across New England.



Yeah, some weren't too happy to hear Winter isn't over yet.
I made a point last week to mention Al Roker and some other meteorologists/weather broadcasters were telling their viewers that the cold weather was done for the season.

That's really how the discussion of the cold weather moving back into the East Coast got started.






The eye just passed to the east of Port Vila.
HURRICANE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

---
JTWC would be giving this about 155 knots now.
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area. The reporting station had a record high yesterday of 88.


Yeah it seems every time we get warm events the local mets are afraid to go full in on the heat forecast. The highs in the Tampa Bay area have been consistently 2-4 degrees warmer than forecast over the past several days during this warm period. One would think after the first couple days, they would have upped the forecast numbers, but nope. Today will probably be 87 if the forecast high is 85.
What is really unfortunate is that Pam is not even moving that fast, just 12mph. Prolonged winds of that magnitude are going to obliterate the island. I hope everyone has evacuated.
With a pressure of 899 millibars, Cyclone Pam is the 2nd deepest tropical system on record in the South Pacific behind 2002's Zoe (890mb). In addition, with 10-minute sustained winds of 135kt, or 1-minute sustained winds of approximately 155kt, Pam is the most intense cyclone on record in the South Pacific.

Quoting 189. nwobilderburg:


see 1935


Fortunately for most of the Keys, That storm crossed a relatively narrow swath as Key West and the Lower Keys had minimal damage. If a 165 MPH hurricane were to take a path down the spine of the Keys similar to Pam it would be all over for folks here.
Impressive

Quoting 194. all4hurricanes:

What is really unfortunate is that Pam is not even moving that fast, just 12mph. Prolonged winds of that magnitude are going to obliterate the island. I hope everyone has evacuated.

Evacuations into 'safer' structures (schools, churches, etc.) did occur, but were halted with the approaching storm. At a certain point, residents were told not to travel to safer structures, as travel was unsafe. (Info from Radio NZ International). So no, I don't think everyone evacuated. And it's likely that there's not enough of these safer structures to hold everyone, anyway. Lord knows I hope I'm wrong...
Not a good morning at all for the folks on those Islands.  Truly sad to hear per the post below that Pam wobbled to the West during the Cat 5 transition overnight (here in the US) with the eyewall heading right over many of the Islands.  Try to donate something in the after-math if the International Red Cross makes the plea for aid donations.
Here is the flash loop with the wobble right over the islands; frightening:

Link

201. Hugo5
indi ocean should get a designator sometime soon.
Quoting 195. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With a pressure of 899 millibars, Cyclone Pam is the 2nd deepest tropical system on record in the South Pacific behind 2002's Zoe (890mb). In addition, with 10-minute sustained winds of 135kt, or 1-minute sustained winds of approximately 155kt, Pam is the most intense cyclone on record in the South Pacific.


That looks horrific..
Quoting 194. all4hurricanes:

What is really unfortunate is that Pam is not even moving that fast, just 12mph. Prolonged winds of that magnitude are going to obliterate the island. I hope everyone has evacuated.


To tell the dire truth: Pam decided to rest at the beaches of Efate (or what is left of them): Pictures below with one hour difference :-((((


PRAYERS for those poor people on the islands..the death and destruction will be horrible..geez a cat 5 monster.
Quoting 186. ChillinInTheKeys:



Yes, sad to say people ARE dying and/or having their world turned up side down by this monster. I don't know much about the topography there but the Keys would be a clean slate if this were to happen here.
Indeed..If the 1935 Hurricane had been larger, the Keys may have been wiped out entirely.
Quoting 203. barbamz:



To tell the dire truth: Pam decided to rest at the beaches of Efate (or what is left from them): Pictures below with one hour difference :-((((


(snip)


Just did a quick measurement in Google Earth; Efate is roughly 21 miles/34 km north to south. Looking at the position of the eye in comparison to the island, it only moved something like 6 miles/10 km during that time. Can't imagine myself in their shoes :(
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Tampa Bay area. The reporting station had a record high yesterday of 88.


If was a hot day but with far less rain than Wednesday. I'll be out at Innisbrook watching the pro's play for the next few days. I would prefer temps about 10 degrees cooler out there while I walk the fairways.
Quoting 169. MAweatherboy1:

I sure hope this turns alright for Vanuatu. I don't know a whole lot about the geography, building codes ... [snip]

Concerning the "building code":

WVUS Media Center ‏@WorldVision 3 min. ago:
RT @WVAsia: In #Vanuatu, 65% of pop. rely on agriculture to earn a living. Most live in homes like this: ...
Vanuatu is on their own financially (not a Colony) but here are the main aid partners per Wiki; they should come on board with relief and recovery assistance in the coming days and months:


Since 1980, Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), France, and New Zealand have provided the bulk of Vanuatu's development aid. Direct aid from the UK to Vanuatu ceased in 2005 following the decision by the UK to no longer focus on the Pacific. However, more recently new donors such as the Millennium Challenge Account(MCA) and the People's Republic of China have been providing increased amounts of aid funding. In 2005 the MCA announced that Vanuatu was one of the first 15 countries in the world selected to receive support—an amount of US$65 million was given for the provision and upgrading of key pieces of public infrastructure.

Vanuatu retains strong economic and cultural ties to Australia, the European Union (in particular France and UK) and New Zealand. Australia now provides the bulk of external assistance, including the police force, which has a paramilitary wing.[26]

Wow, that thing is awful. I have a feeling that island is going to be barren for a while after this. Hell on Earth. Praying for them!
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:

Although GFS doesn't show it the Euro shows a massive pattern change late next week partly because of the MJO coming in and the AO tanking. Euro control even brings the Freeze line near the FL/GA border. Euro is also much wetter than the GFS especially across FL from Wednesday on next week. Bottomline keep a watch out next week and don't be fooled by all of this warm weather as Winter is going to make an abrupt return late next week across the eastern US.


I,m not- I have never seen the AO drop from 5.2 to -3..Couple other thing to watch, and if everything comes together, someone will get winter blast. MJO weakens on its approach. NAO may be negative.



here's damage from pam at tuvalu
Quoting 209. Skyepony:

Here is Live cams and Ustreams for PAM..

Skye, those pics aren't live anymore. Telsat communications broke up around 5 hours ago.
I dont even want to imagine the shear beating that island is taking. Pam has been stationary, prolonging the onslaught. Edit..and if not, thats certainly a unfortunate wobble, or decrease in forward speed.

Quoting 213. ricderr:

here's damage from pam at tuvalu


Based on how the coconut trees look... hurricane force winds haven't occurred here.

Now based on the banana trees which are still up... we can say that the winds were not strong.
Looks like tweety pie in the eye in the blog satellite pic.
Quoting 214. ricderr:

ok....did help4u post this?????

1st one I,d pick..Mornin Ric.
Quoting 217. hydrus:

I dont even want to imagine the shear beating that island is taking. Pam has been stationary, prolonging the onslaught.




That's an odd loop: every frame until the last three are an hour each (or so), but the last three frames only cover 30 minutes total.
Quoting 218. CaribBoy:



Based on how the coconut trees look... hurricane force winds haven't occurred here.

Now based on the banana trees which are still up... we can say that the winds were not strong.


I agree. Must be just surge damage.
Quoting 184. Sfloridacat5:

Here's the GFS temp forecast I posted last weekend showing the upcoming cold weather.

Several members were discussing it last weekend.



At 384 hours out, you may as well have been discussing the chance of it raining skittles. :)
Quoting 221. tlawson48:



That's an odd loop every frame until the last three are an hour each (or so), but the last three frames only cover 30 minutes total
30 minutes would be an eternity in that, nevermind an hour and a half..I did edit my post , stating something else may be happening.
Quoting 218. CaribBoy:

"Based on how the coconut trees look... hurricane force winds haven't occurred here.
Now based on the banana trees which are still up... we can say that the winds were not strong."

From Dr Masters Blog entry: "Pam has already caused significant flooding on the low-lying island of Tuvalu, located over 700 miles northeast of the storm, as documented by storm surge expert Hal Needham in his blog.".
Quoting 221. tlawson48:



That's an odd loop: every frame until the last three are an hour each (or so), but the last three frames only cover 30 minutes total.
May mean a change in direction too...

That was weird...
Quoting 218. CaribBoy:



Based on how the coconut trees look... hurricane force winds haven't occurred here.

Now based on the banana trees which are still up... we can say that the winds were not strong.


Yeah banana trees would be a better proxy for testing for hurricane force winds, as coconut trees can survive winds well into the hurricane force range before being destroyed. It usually takes category3-4+ winds to start taking any real serious hits to coconut palms. They are ideal wind plants.
Quoting 228. luvtogolf:

That was weird...

Yeah, was wondering what happened there :)
Quoting 229. Jedkins01:



Yeah banana trees would be a better proxy for testing for hurricane force winds, as coconut trees can survive winds well into the hurricane force range before being destroyed. It usually takes category3-4 winds to start taking any real serious hits to coconut palms. They are ideal wind plants.

With the exception of the actual coconuts blown off the trees as 100 MPH plus projectiles in a high Cat storm...........................

Weathering the Weather: Make sure your landscaping is storm-ready photo

Workers often use cherry pickers to trim trees in Palm Beach, such as these coconut palms on Worth Avenue. Other than removing dead or dying fronds, most palms require little preparation for storm season. Coconut palms, however, should be stripped of their coconuts, which can easily become projectiles during a windstorm.
Quoting 225. ChillinInTheKeys:

Quoting 218. CaribBoy:

"Based on how the coconut trees look... hurricane force winds haven't occurred here.
Now based on the banana trees which are still up... we can say that the winds were not strong."

From Dr Masters Blog entry: "Pam has already caused significant flooding on the low-lying island of Tuvalu, located over 700 miles northeast of the storm, as documented by storm surge expert Hal Needham in his blog.".


Flooding in Tuvalu after Cyclone Pam.
Photo: Plan International Australia
(Source)
Quoting 229. Jedkins01:



Yeah banana trees would be a better proxy for testing for hurricane force winds, as coconut trees can survive winds well into the hurricane force range before being destroyed. It usually takes category3-4+ winds to start taking any real serious hits to coconut palms. They are ideal wind plants.


Though the fronds would still be battered even in a Cat 1. These trees look like a sunny day at the beach.
Quoting 223. Xyrus2000:



At 384 hours out, you may as well have been discussing the chance of it raining skittles. :)

What about partly cloudy with a chance of meatballs?
Quoting 223. Xyrus2000:



At 384 hours out, you may as well have been discussing the chance of it raining skittles. :)
it may do that right into April..

Wobbling away from Efate finally, and aiming at the next victim: Erromango, the northest one of the Tafea Islands of Vanuatu.
Quoting wiki: Erromango contains numerous caves that provided refuge from tribal warfare and cyclones. Human use of these caves has been dated to 2,800-2,400 years before present.
Hope people are safe in their caves now!
Quoting 234. ACSeattle:


What about partly cloudy with a chance of meatballs?
They posted a Spaghetti advisory
They are still in the eye wall...

Quoting 229. Jedkins01:



Yeah banana trees would be a better proxy for testing for hurricane force winds, as coconut trees can survive winds well into the hurricane force range before being destroyed. It usually takes category3-4+ winds to start taking any real serious hits to coconut palms. They are ideal wind plants.


Coconut trees after (strong) category 1 hurricane Gonzalo.



RSMC forecasting 140 knots still in the outlook forecast.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FIVE (11F)
0:00 AM FST March 14 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Five (899 hPa) located at 17.5S 168.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Organization remains good with eye discernible on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery. Deep convection remains persistent. System lies in a moderate sheared environment with moderate to high upper divergence. Outflow good in southeastern semicircle. Pam is being steered southwards by a northerly deep layer mean wind flow. Cyclonic circulation extends to 200 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye and cold dark grey surround, yields DT=7.0, MET=7.0, PT=6.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 20.1S 169.4E - 140 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 23.4S 171.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 31.6S 178.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
Quoting 239. CaribBoy:



Coconut trees after (strong) category 1 hurricane Gonzalo.






Significant damage but most of them survived and are now beautiful again.
Quoting 229. Jedkins01:



Yeah banana trees would be a better proxy for testing for hurricane force winds, as coconut trees can survive winds well into the hurricane force range before being destroyed. It usually takes category3-4+ winds to start taking any real serious hits to coconut palms. They are ideal wind plants.
We use to use the fronds as an indicator..They work rather well.
Gotta go... Hoping for the best in a bad situation down there! Ya''ll enjoy your day!!!
Looking at the map, and current trajectory of the core of the storm, it looks like the Island of Ipota may get clipped by the eye wall as well unless we get another jog to the East:
Quoting 245. weathermanwannabe:
Ipota...

I had to look it up :-) Ipota Airport (IATA: IPA, ICAO: NVVI) is an airfield near Ipota on the island of Erromango, in the Taféa province in Vanuatu. It is one of two airfields in the island, the other being Dillon's Bay Airport in the west.
Quoting 245. weathermanwannabe:

Looking at the map, and current trajectory of the core of the storm, it looks like the Island of Ipota may get clipped by the eye wall as well unless we get another jog to the East:



Ipota is the airport. Erromango is the island.
We use to use the fronds as an indicator..They work rather well.


when i lived in florida and jean passed through......while we were in the eye we went outside that evening and one of the palm trees was leaned over at about a 30 degree angle......we talked about how i would have to cut it down the next day....in the morning after the sun rose....we went outside again...and the palm was upright once again...just slightly off center
Thanks for the correction on the Airport location...............That presents a response and recovery nightmare if the eyewall actually hits the airport and damages the runway..................Lets Pray that the runways on Erromango (or any of the other islands impacted by Pam) are not damaged.
jeanne aint no pam it looks as if the worst of pam might go right over those southern most islands.
Quoting 248. ricderr:

We use to use the fronds as an indicator..They work rather well.


when i lived in florida and jean passed through......while we were in the eye we went outside that evening and one of the palm trees was leaned over at about a 30 degree angle......we talked about how i would have to cut it down the next day....in the morning after the sun rose....we went outside again...and the palm was upright once again...just slightly off center


Didn't know you were in Jeanne (and Francis). Crazy year for Florida. We caught the weakened state of both storms here on the west coast. Still there were a lot of trees down and power loss.
Quoting 248. ricderr:

We use to use the fronds as an indicator..They work rather well.


when i lived in florida and jean passed through......while we were in the eye we went outside that evening and one of the palm trees was leaned over at about a 30 degree angle......we talked about how i would have to cut it down the next day....in the morning after the sun rose....we went outside again...and the palm was upright once again...just slightly off center
Yep I had deal with Jeanne too....In 1960 when Donna hit S.W.Florida , the palms in Collier , Charlotte and Lee county were hard hit. ( The Keys actually lost quite a few )..One can actually drive on U.S.41 today , and see the palms at extreme angles, palms that were nearly knocked down, but survived...Especially in Charlotte County.
In mph, how strong is Pam? I see she is 140 knots, tho.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 251. islander101010:

pam aint no jeanne it looks as if the worst of pam might go right over those southern most islands.


Erromango has a population of 2,000, but the next in the firing line, Tamma, has 29,000. Not good.

Erromango.
Videos of the next island after Erromango - much more populated Tanna - in post #23.
Quoting 254. 62901IL:

In mph, how strong is Pam? I see she is 140 knots, tho.


135 knots (10 min sustained winds)
155 knots (1 min sustained winds)

so.. about 175-180 mph
Quoting 206. LAbonbon:


Just did a quick measurement in Google Earth; Efate is roughly 21 miles/34 km north to south. Looking at the position of the eye in comparison to the island, it only moved something like 6 miles/10 km during that time. Can't imagine myself in their shoes :(

It's as if it wanted to cause as much destruction as possible. Prayers go to Efate and the entire island chain at this time...