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Subtropical Storm Cari Forms Near Brazil; South Pacific's Cyclone Pam a Cat 4

By: Jeff Masters 4:25 PM GMT on March 11, 2015

A rare subtropical storm, with characteristics of both a tropical and a non-tropical system, has formed in the South Atlantic waters off the coast of Brazil, according to the 8 am EDT March 11, 2015 analysis by the Navy Hydrographic Center in Brazil. The storm has top wind speeds near 45 mph, according to an 3:40 pm EDT Tuesday pass from the Rapidscat instrument on the International Space Station. The surface pressure was near 1000 mb, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was firing up near the center of circulation, and a more substantial amount on its southeast side, in a band well removed from the circulation center. Sea surface temperatures are near 27°C, which is about 0.5°C above average, and 1°C above what is typically needed to support a tropical storm. Phase space diagrams from Florida State show the storm has a weak warm core at low levels which should get better defined through Thursday morning, but by Thursday evening the storm will begin losing its tropical characteristics as wind shear increases and Cari moves to the southeast, away from Brazil, over cooler waters. It is unlikely the storm has time to become fully tropical, and Cari is not a threat to make landfall.

Here are the recent IR and VIS satellite loops from GOES-East, courtesy of NOAA's Dan Lindsey.



Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Subtropical Storm Cari off the coast of Brazil, taken at approximately 9:00 am EDT Wednesday, March 11, 2015. Image credit: NASA.



Figure 2. Surface winds off the coast of Brazil according to an 3:40 pm EDT Tuesday pass from the Rapidscat instrument on the International Space Station. The center of circulation of Subtropical Storm Cari is seen, along with top winds near 45 mph in a band well southeast of the center of circulation.

South Atlantic tropical storm history
Tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that until 2011, there was no official naming of depressions or storms done. In 2011, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center instituted a naming system with nine names, of which three have been used so far (Arani in 2011, Bapo in February 2015, and now Cari.) Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of fewer than ten tropical or subtropical storms to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms). It is uncertain whether climate change may cause an increase in South Atlantic tropical storms in the future. While today's storm formed over waters that were about 0.5°C above average in temperature, Catarina in 2004 formed over waters that were 0.5°C cooler than average. Sea surface temperature is not the main limiting factor inhibiting these storms--wind shear is. How climate change might change wind shear over the South Atlantic has not been well-studied.

Pam hits Category 4 in the South Pacific
In the South Pacific Ocean about 1,800 miles east of Australia, Tropical Cyclone Pam has rapidly intensified to a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 135 mph as of 8 am EDT Wednesday. Pam has generated quite a bit of hype over the past few days, thanks to eye-popping model projections by the GFS and European models which show the cyclone intensifying into a Category 5 monster with a central pressure less than 880 mb by late this week. If this forecast verifies, it would make Pam one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded, world-wide. However, these models are not known for making reliable intensity forecasts, and are generally disregarded by NHC for intensity forecasts in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. The HWRF model, which is one of our better intensity forecast models, predicted with its 06Z (2 am EDT) Wednesday run that Pam would reach a central pressure of 907 mb by Friday, which would make it a still-formidable Category 5 cyclone. The Tuesday morning official intensity forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) goes along with this idea, making Pam a Category 5 storm by Thursday evening. Pam is an unusually large cyclone over extremely deep warm water, with widespread surface temperatures above 30°C (86°F). Wind shear is currently high, 30 knots, but is expected to fall to the moderate range by Thursday night, which may allow Pam to undergo additional intensification into a Category 5 storm. A westward shift in the predicted track means that Pam will likely pass over or very close to some of the islands of Vanuatu on Thursday and Friday. In particular, a Personal Weather Station at Port Villa appears to be directly in the path of Pam.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Pam.

Bob Henson will have a new post Wednesday afternoon, summarizing the U.S. winter of 2014 - 2015.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters. JTWC is issuing warnings on 4 cyclones at once! Guess an MJO pulse like what we're seeing will do that... I don't know that Pam is as strong as what the JTWC is saying though; they've got it at 115 kts... I think if recon were in there they'd find it closer to 100kts. Under-performing so far. Dry air much stronger than the models had anticipated.

thanx doc......


i'll be darned though.....a certain "trust the long range models" blogger predicted a sub-tropical storm this week......he just had it about 5000 miles out of place
By the way, big time solar flare just a few minutes ago. Looks like close to X3.



Sunspot 2297... been producing numerous M class flares for the past couple days as it has grown, now an X class event... could get interesting in the next day or two as it turns towards Earth. We'll see.

Thank You for the Post Dr. Actually a shame that the rare Brazilian storm is not going to penetrate inland. In spite of some recent short-term flooding rains in parts around Sao Paolo, they are still in the mist of a historic drought and could have used some more drought relief:



Good afternoon

Glad to see that the rest of the world decided to get back into sync with my time! Television watchers down here even happier!

An absolutely miserable rainy and misty blah kind of day here on the island. If you want to see a really neat parallel parking job, the sixth ship of the day is arriving now and will be docking in that space between the three ships already showing in Cam. No. 1.

Link

I believe the cams refresh every couple of minutes. Too expensive to have them run live.

Hope all is well with everyone!!

Lindy
Quoting 5. MAweatherboy1:

By the way, big time solar flare just a few minutes ago. Looks like close to X3.



Sunspot 2297... been producing numerous M class flares for the past couple days as it has grown, now an X class event... could get interesting in the next day or two as it turns towards Earth. We'll see.




Interesting because they are already warning us here on the island of problems that will probably develop.

-L
Thank You for the Post Dr. Actually a shame that the rare Brazilian storm is not going to penetrate inland. In spite of some recent short-term flooding rains in parts around Sao Paolo, they are still in the mist of a historic drought and could have used some more drought relief:


yep...cus drought coupled with wind damaged homes and businesses is so much more fun than just drought alone :-)

Quoting 9. ricderr:

Thank You for the Post Dr. Actually a shame that the rare Brazilian storm is not going to penetrate inland. In spite of some recent short-term flooding rains in parts around Sao Paolo, they are still in the mist of a historic drought and could have used some more drought relief:


yep...cus drought coupled with wind damaged homes and businesses is so much more fun than just drought alone :-)

I hear You;  A good soaking TS, without the high wind speeds, is often a great and needed event to help dent water deficits.  Please note that I would have "thanked God" on behalf of the Brazilian People if it was in fact a Cat 3 instead that was not penetrating the coast........................ :)

Quoting 9. ricderr:

Thank You for the Post Dr. Actually a shame that the rare Brazilian storm is not going to penetrate inland. In spite of some recent short-term flooding rains in parts around Sao Paolo, they are still in the mist of a historic drought and could have used some more drought relief:


yep...cus drought coupled with wind damaged homes and businesses is so much more fun than just drought alone :-)
You just made me laugh...its been months ...literally..Thanks
For the 3rd month in a row, according to JISAO, the ongoing +PDO is once again in record territory (@ +2.30), easily beating out February 1941...

Thus, this past winter's averaged PDO was also a record, & by a wide margin...
The top 7 & 8 of these top 10 +PDO winters (all except 1983-84 & 1926-27) were juxtaposed within multi-year El Ninos/+ENSO events. That's very likely not just mere coincidence. I've been under the impression until recently that for the most part the PDO is largely an artifact of or a reddened response to ENSO, perhaps there's more of a two-way relationship, particularly with exceptional wintertime +PDO regimes influencing the longevity of El Ninos (i.e. extreme +PDOs favoring longer El Ninos). Of course, last spring's extraordinary downwelling Kelvin Wave, lacking an extraordinary ENSO response like it's 1997-98 counterpart, contributed appreciably to this current configuration, w/ a considerable proportion of this displaced & anomalously warm water from the West Pacific warm pool being flushed into the extratropical North Pacific...
2014-15 2.42
1940-41 2.06
2002-03 1.98
1986-87 1.80
1935-36 1.77
1939-40 1.76
1905-06 1.60
1983-84 1.47
1976-77 1.33
1926-27 1.29

I hear You; A good soaking TS, without the high wind speeds, is often a great and needed event to help dent water deficits. Please note that I would have "thanked God" on behalf of the Brazilian People if it was in fact a Cat 3 instead that was not penetrating the coast........................ :)

bubba...i know your intentions were good...and i agree with you....it was just to good a set up not to add the punch line :-)


Some measurable  rain in NorCal, we have a 0% chance here according to WU
You just made me laugh...its been months ...literally..Thanks

not a problem...someone has to be here for comic relief......well...we do have others...but they're being serious when they're funny....
I just happened to spot this as I was setting up something else to record.

Sunday at 8PM on the Smithsonian channel Jeff Masters defies death in the heart of a Cat 5 hurricane!
Looks like Cali might finally be getting some rain... Hey, Ped check out the temp in Eagle River.

My own thermometer is showing -3F...
Atlantic not in bad shape at all. Sst's have warmed some in the past week,especially in the MDR and near the coast of Africa. You can see this through the 7day change and through some of the blue near Africa disappearing. Also notice the changes in sst's near the west coast of South America. It seems as if it's been trying to migrate westward during the past month. Any thoughts?

Quoting 18. Dakster:

Looks like Cali might finally be getting some rain... Hey, Ped check out the temp in Eagle River.

My own thermometer is showing -3F...

Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 9:02 AM AKDT on March 11, 2015





Clear


-3.1 °F

Clear






Windchill:

-3 °F



Humidity:
81%


Dew Point:

-8 °F



Wind:


Calm








Wind Gust:

1.0 mph



Pressure:


29.95 in

(Steady)



Visibility:

10.0 miles



UV:
0 out of 16


Clouds:


Clear


-


(Above Ground Level)



Elevation:

590 ft
http://www.meteo.gov.vu/#


Here's Vanuatu's weather page.
Quoting 19. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Atlantic not in bad shape at all. Sst's have warmed some in the past week,especially in the MDR and near the coast of Africa. You can see this through the 7day change and through some of the blue near Africa disappearing. Also notice the changes in sst's near the west coast of South America. It seems as if it's been trying to migrate westward during the past month. Any thoughts?
Good setup:

This year bad setup:
Quoting 22. Gearsts:

Good setup:

This year bad setup:

It'll change, hopefully when the AMO is usually on the rise in the coming months.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - Discussion

Folks in Nebraska like: Mayday! Mayday! We've been hit! Condition is Critical!!!
Metsul: "CYCLONE | It's not every day you see statement in Brazil's subtropical cyclone symbol in SIGMET aeronautical chart."

Subtropical Storm Cari:

SSTs usually don't get me too excited. They really haven't done much to assist development when the upper level environment is hostile.

Last year the Caribbean and GOM were baking hot (85-90 degrees) and practically every low that passed through the area just fizzled or remained extremely weak.
Hoping barb posts about that 8.5ft of snow in Italy in 18 hours....insanity.
Soon we should have actually temps in the upper 80s.
I've got 87 degrees, heat index of 90 degrees at the house.

Quoting 15. PedleyCA:


Some measurable  rain in NorCal, we have a 0% chance here according to WU


20% here in the SFV.
Quoting largeeyes:
Hoping barb posts about that 8.5ft of snow in Italy in 18 hours....insanity.


NBC News actually showed a video of the area on the morning news.
They said they got more snow in a couple days than Boston got in couple months.
Hydrus - Everywhere but drought striken California going to get some rain...
33. vis0
ml-d reset note::
i'm going to fully clean the ml-d this means sometime in the next 24 hrs begins a 72 hr. reset period.
Those that understand what a rest does, okay you get a third of a cookie.

To follow is a Readers Digest version of what happens (those born after 1980, lets call it a Twitters version), yer good schooled?, then lets call it a condensed version::

All "reply-" areas (http://i.imgbox.com/PxceWS0u.png) [not linking as imgbox doesn't like hotlinks, i said try the milder sausages, no reply] flip to the opposite influence at 99% for the first 24 hrs after i begin reset. (example HIGHS off CA. coast become quickly deteriorating HIGHs and allow LOWS/Troughs to go through. Opposite side of world "reply-LOWs" there become weak and ridging begins to try and takes hold.

All "reply-HorL" from 24 to 48 hrs after the ml-d is reset are then in limbo as they are going from the opposite end of the stable (unstable/resetting) ml-d influence at 99% down to 66% and beginning to go from the stable ml-d influence of 66% back up to 99%.

All "reply-" from 72 hrs on are back to Natures' NATURAL reply/response (why i use the word reply) to the ml-d influence settings.(example:: the RRR builds back up out west of the USofA and all other 3 compass points surrounding the ml-d's outermost AOI. Opposite area of the world the reply-Lows / troughs begin to redevelop.


ALL weather trends are dependent on what Nature decides to create, the ml-d THEN adds its influence. Since Nature is creating a better than average strength southern Jet Stream over the SE, notice how LOWs/Fronts passing by the ml-d head more to sea(Atlantic) than curve Northward. This can allow as a Domino effect more moisture to head towards the western coast of North America and instead of seeing what i call Le Niño Ikodom during what should be El Modoki (Ikodom?, made up word. Look it up on my blog or ask WxU regulars) you'll see more of an El Niño Modoki IF Modoki is what is presently (be it temporarily) occurring as the southern Jet is weakening the RRR over northern ePAC.

WEATHER::Today it will be 100% sunny ...above the clouds.
Quoting largeeyes:
Hoping barb posts about that 8.5ft of snow in Italy in 18 hours....insanity.
I've been looking at the pictures from Italy and that snow looks like it must have been wind blown, with many of the drifts up against buildings and other obstructions. The roofs looked like they had about a foot of snow on them, which is usually a sign of blowing and drifting snow. I wonder what spot they'll pick to measure this snowfall?
We're currently tied with our record for the day, which is 88 degrees.

Fort Myers
A Few Clouds
88F
31C
Humidity50%
Wind SpeedS 8 mph
Barometer30.12 in (1020.2 mb)
Dewpoint67F (19C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index91F (33C)
Last Update on 11 Mar 1:53 pm EDT
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Atlantic not in bad shape at all. Sst's have warmed some in the past week,especially in the MDR and near the coast of Africa. You can see this through the 7day change and through some of the blue near Africa disappearing. Also notice the changes in sst's near the west coast of South America. It seems as if it's been trying to migrate westward during the past month. Any thoughts?
Do you believe there's any relationship between what we see today and what we'll see on June 1? If so, why kind of relationship? Do you think SST's today are predictive what we'll see on June 1? Here's an exercise to try. Take the last five years of that chart for March 1 and then the last 5 years on June 1. Let me know what you see.
Now doesn't this look modoki?
Quoting sar2401:
I've been looking at the pictures from Italy and that snow looks like it must have been wind blown, with many of the drifts up against buildings and other obstructions. The roofs looked like they had about a foot of snow on them, which is usually a sign of blowing and drifting snow. I wonder what spot they'll pick to measure this snowfall?


I think the buildings being so closely packed together really helped trap the blowing snow.

As you mentioned, here's a good example of very little snow on the roof of some of the buildings which would indicate that there were strong winds blowing the snow around.


Very narrow street that trapped the drifting snow.
Thank you Jeff for words on Cari. There are places where sleuths poke around for the lingering evidence of storms long since past. Ever since I read about Catarina, I've wondered whether anyone so equipped, might have turned such scrutiny upon the East Coast of S. America? Heard of such, anyone?
Record still to be determined.

It's not an official record yet, but it looks like the Italian village got 100.8 inches (256 centimeters) on Thursday, setting the all-time mark for most snow in 24 hours. Pescocostanzo, about 21 miles (34.6 kilometers) away, only got 94.5 inches (240 cm).

That's more than Boston got in January and February combined, but just short of the 107.9 inches the city totaled so far for the whole season.

The World Meteorological Organization will confirm whether the snowfall actually surpassed the 24-hour snowfall record -- 75.8 inches -- from Silver Lake, Colorado, set in 1921.

MeteoWeb reported that the snow fell in 18 hours and that in unpopulated areas at higher altitudes, it is likely accumulations were much more significant.

CNN meteorologists Dave Hennen and Taylor Ward contributed to this report.

Link
Quoting 27. largeeyes:

Hoping barb posts about that 8.5ft of snow in Italy in 18 hours....insanity.

Hey, largeeyes, I did - but several days ago as this event already has happened March 5/6. I've retrieved my little post from the abyss of past comment sections in here and copied it into the comment section of my blog - together with the CNN-"News" from today (they are a little slow, no? - TWC already had it days ago, but this more detailed article unfortunately isn't accessible for the public any longer, at least not for me).

Hope you're doing well in Berlin, although temps should drop a bit the next days ...

Edit: And, of course, thank you for the new tropical entry, doc! Hope the owner of the PWS in Port Vila/Efate/Vanuatu will make the best of evil Pam, and all their countryfellows as well!
Do you believe there's any relationship between what we see today and what we'll see on June 1? If so, why kind of relationship? Do you think SST's today are predictive what we'll see on June 1? Here's an exercise to try. Take the last five years of that chart for March 1 and then the last 5 years on June 1. Let me know what you see.


no one ever does these types of exercises...it's like the kelvin wave in the pacific.......looks impressive.......could be depending on timing...but i ask people to figure out the actual temperatures in the kelvin wave...and compare them to the average SST's of the time they expect the wave to surface.......reason being...and reason we saw the anomalies dissipate last spring....there's as much as a 7 degree swing in the pacific temps between march and may
All nino regions have cooled some as of now. I wonder why? Any thoughts???
Quoting 42. barbamz:


Hey, largeeyes, I did - but several days ago as this event already has happened March 5/6. I've retrieved my little post from the abyss of past comment sections in here and copied it into the comment section of my blog - together with the CNN-"News" from today (they are slow, no? - TWC already had it days ago, but this more detailed article unfortunately isn't accessible for the public any longer).

Hope you're doing well in Berlin, although temps should drop a bit the next days ...


Thanks. Last weekend was gorgeous. Maybe not so great this weekend, but not bad for mid March. Been busy with german classes and missed your post :)
Ricderr - I agree... So many times we have been faked out by conditions today vs. June 1. Predicting Hurricane season now is almost as accurate as rolling dice or flipping a coin. Many times Dr. Masters has commented on early season forecasts not being all that accurate. And when they are, the person/group doing the forecasting isn't consistently accurate.
Quoting 45. largeeyes:



Thanks. Last weekend was gorgeous. Maybe not so great this weekend, but not bad for mid March. Been busy with german classes and missed your post :)

Good luck with our German, largeeyes! Looks like you're going to stay a little longer with us :-)
Ricderr - I agree... So many times we have been faked out by conditions today vs. June 1. Predicting Hurricane season now is almost as accurate as rolling dice or flipping a coin. Many times Dr. Masters has commented on early season forecasts not being all that accurate. And when they are, the person/group doing the forecasting isn't consistently accurate.


take a look at the funding and credentials for the staff at colorado and then how exceptionally poor they do with their early predictions of tropical systems.....if they can't even come close to respectability.......how arrogant are we to think we can do anything more than guess?
Quoting 43. ricderr:

Do you believe there's any relationship between what we see today and what we'll see on June 1? If so, why kind of relationship? Do you think SST's today are predictive what we'll see on June 1? Here's an exercise to try. Take the last five years of that chart for March 1 and then the last 5 years on June 1. Let me know what you see.


no one ever does these types of exercises...it's like the kelvin wave in the pacific.......looks impressive.......could be depending on timing...but i ask people to figure out the actual temperatures in the kelvin wave...and compare them to the average SST's of the time they expect the wave to surface.......reason being...and reason we saw the anomalies dissipate last spring....there's as much as a 7 degree swing in the pacific temps between march and may
Thanks so much. Good theory. It's so good to know that we have a lot of people on this blog who puts reason into their comments. That as the actual purpose of this blog. For all of us to provide info to each other and to work together as a wunderground team. That's why it is so important to learn how to be grateful for the enthusiastic people we have on this blog, and why we are all here. This just goes to show that people with different personalities and different perspectives on life success can all work together as a team. All I have to say is that we should all be thankful for the people we have on this blog, and learn to be appreciative of each other. Sorry if I got off the topic of weather lol.

All nino regions have cooled some as of now. I wonder why? Any thoughts???


3 of the 4 regions...including the all important 3.4 region are all under the 0.5C threshold.......of course...your chart is the wrong chart...and the daily values are just so much noise....but...they are interesting
If nothing else, Boston will get more winter weather.

All I have to say is that we should all be thankful for the people we have on this blog, and learn to be appreciative of each other. Sorry if I got off the topic of weather lol.


you mean i can't pull a knife on people?......man are you're a kill joy ! (mods...the term "pull a knife" is a literary idiom...no actual reference to utilizing a knife is implied or inferred...not to mention...last time i tried to knife someone over the internet...i skewed the hard drive and it shocked the crap out of me)
Quoting 50. ricderr:


All nino regions have cooled some as of now. I wonder why? Any thoughts???


3 of the 4 regions...including the all important 3.4 region are all under the 0.5C threshold.......of course...your chart is the wrong chart...and the daily values are just so much noise....but...they are interesting
Where can i get the right charts?
JMA upgrades from TD03W to TS BAVI in WPAC:

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 11 March 2015

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E168°05'(168.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)




Quoting 28. Sfloridacat5:

Soon we should have actually temps in the upper 80s.
I've got 87 degrees, heat index of 90 degrees at the house.




It's 86 at my house with a heat index of 91 and a dewpoint of 70.


Nearby observation a couple miles away at the airport has a similar reading:

Partly Cloudy

86F

30C

Humidity57%
Wind SpeedS 8 mph
Barometer30.12 in (1019.8 mb)
Dewpoint69F (21C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index90F (32C)

Last Update on 11 Mar 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91N Lon: 82.69W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather



Part's of the area are even warmer:

Partly Cloudy

90F

32C

Humidity46%
Wind SpeedS 12 G 17 mph
Barometer30.12 in
Dewpoint66F (19C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index93F (34C)

Last Update on 11 Mar 2:55 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tampa, Vandenberg Airport (KVDF)

Lat: 28.02N Lon: 82.34W Elev: 16ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

There are even a few sea breeze showers today, and there were some last night as well. Today's may get a bit more robust later today due to added moisture and instability, maybe even a couple thunderstorms.
What's interesting is that this pattern is identical to the summer sea breeze thunderstorm pattern. The only difference is that heat, moisture, instability, and water temps are not prime for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to rainy season levels.
Still though, it's amazing to see any this time of year, but it does make sense given that this is essentially a summer pattern.


Quoting 40. Sfloridacat5:

Record still to be determined.

It's not an official record yet, but it looks like the Italian village got 100.8 inches (256 centimeters) on Thursday, setting the all-time mark for most snow in 24 hours. Pescocostanzo, about 21 miles (34.6 kilometers) away, only got 94.5 inches (240 cm).

That's more than Boston got in January and February combined, but just short of the 107.9 inches the city totaled so far for the whole season.

The World Meteorological Organization will confirm whether the snowfall actually surpassed the 24-hour snowfall record -- 75.8 inches -- from Silver Lake, Colorado, set in 1921.

MeteoWeb reported that the snow fell in 18 hours and that in unpopulated areas at higher altitudes, it is likely accumulations were much more significant.

CNN meteorologists Dave Hennen and Taylor Ward contributed to this report.

Link
yeah just read the story on cnn..what an amazing thing to happen,geez.
Quoting 32. Dakster:

Hydrus - Everywhere but drought striken California going to get some rain...
California did get a little past day or so. Drop in the bucket., but better than bone dry air I suppose. I was just looking at some of the models , at first I was optimistic about our forecast being dryer than progged 24 hours ago, but there are indications that they may swing back to the east.
pam could make for a great west swell for latin america as well as s. america hoping she becomes a gender bender just east of new zealand
Quoting 52. ricderr:

All I have to say is that we should all be thankful for the people we have on this blog, and learn to be appreciative of each other. Sorry if I got off the topic of weather lol.


you mean i can't pull a knife on people?......man are you're a kill joy ! (mods...the term "pull a knife" is a literary idiom...no actual reference to utilizing a knife is implied or inferred...not to mention...last time i tried to knife someone over the internet...i skewed the hard drive and it shocked the crap out of me)
next time grabit with your mouse pad than stick...works for me..
60. SLU
Quoting 281. Gearsts:

Hello friend! You have been very quiet and i wonder why.




Well we're in the off season and the weather is boring in my neck of the woods.
GFS ensemble forecast for Subtropical Storm Cari:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
5:05 AM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 13.8S 145.8E or 105 kilometers north northeast of Lizard Island and 195 kilometers north northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
35 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan is continuing to move slowly southwest towards the coast near Cape Flattery. It is expected to slow this movement during today and ultimately change direction to the east northeast away from the coast over the next 24 hours.

GALES extend out to approximately 160 kilometers from the center and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas today. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River during Friday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center overnight tonight and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island, today.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts throughout today. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.6S 145.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.4S 145.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.1S 147.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.2S 151.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
CIMSS winds continue to depict 20 to 30 knots of east northeasterly shear over tropical cyclone Nathan, and the system continued to struggle to maintain convection around its core through the diurnal minimum yesterday. Overnight Wednesday another burst of convection has flared up and this has enabled Dvorak T numbers to be maintained.

Intensity is maintained at 50 knots 10 minute mean based on the Dvorak analysis. The center lies under the most recent flare of deep convection so a shear pattern would give DT 3.5. MET is 4.0 and pattern T is 3.5. Final T 3.5.

Microwave imagery has shown the mid level center to be displaced from the low level circulation center as would be expected under the current shear regime. Recent convection has been displaced more to the southwest of the suspected low level center rather than the west or west southwest, which could be indicative of the shear vector shifting to a more northeast direction. Likewise, the low level circulation center is expected to be NE of the circulation currently depicted on the Cairns weather radar, which is viewing the system at a height of 6 km or more.

From tonight the mid-level ridge steering the system to the west southwest will break down ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, and the steering pattern will change to push the system east overnight Thursday or on Friday. The east northeasterly shear is prognosed to decrease with the erosion of the mid-level ridge so the main intensification in the forecast period has been reserved for after 1200 UTC Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Coen to Port Douglas

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Lockhart River to Coen
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 AM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Two (991 hPa) located at 17.6S 115.6E or 370 kilometers north northwest of Karratha and 505 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn continues to intensify as it moves towards the west Pilbara coast. Olwyn will be near the west Pilbara coast early on Friday morning with landfall expected between Exmouth and Mardie and there is the possibility that Olwyn intensifies to a severe tropical cyclone before landfall. The system will weaken as it continues to move towards the south, taking heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr are expected to develop between Karratha and Exmouth during Thursday afternoon. Should the system take a more southerly track during Thursday then gales may extend as far east as Whim Creek. From late Thursday, gales may extend inland to Pannawonica and Nanutarra.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 170 km/hr could develop near the west Pilbara coast late Thursday evening or early Friday morning as the cyclone approaches the coast. DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Coral Bay for a period during Friday morning then Cape Cuvier later on Friday.

Residents between Mardie and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Thursday and continue into Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 19.2S 114.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 21.3S 114.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 26.3S 114.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 34.5S 120.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn was located using recent infrared and microwave imagery.

Dvorak: Curved band analysis on enhanced infrared gives a wrap of 0.8 and a DT of 3.5. MET was 3.0 with PAT 3.5. FT/CI set to 3.5 with intensity of 50 knots [10 minute mean winds]. This is in good agreement with ADT.

CIMSS shear analysis at 1200 UTC indicated shear between 5 and 10. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.The environment is favorable for intensification at close to the standard rate with Olwyn forecast to reach category 3 [hurricane force] before the system makes landfall in the vicinity of Exmouth.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. The motion is forecast to increase to around 10 knots from the current 7 knots.

Interaction with an approaching trough will turn the system to the south southwest and increase speed during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Whim Creek to Cape Cuvier

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Cuvier to Kalbarri
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
3:00 AM JST March 12 2015
=================================
Near Marshall Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (996 hPa) located at 7.3N 168.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 9.8N 162.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 11.7N 155.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk)
72 HRS: 13.1N 148.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is now in effect for the populated islands of Ujae and Enewetak of the western Marshall islands.
Quoting 61. Levi32:

GFS ensemble forecast for Subtropical Storm Cari:


Well. They may have something after all.
Cari in my region :p


Quoting 65. HadesGodWyvern:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is now in effect for the populated islands of Ujae and Enewetak of the western Marshall islands.

What a coincidence: I was just about to post this:

Climate change in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati, before and after - interactive
The Guardian, Remi Chauvin and Eric Hilaire, Wednesday 11 March 2015 12.00 GMT
In the low-lying Pacific atolls of the Marshall Islands and Kiribati rising sea levels have made every high tide a dangerous event. Regular floods wash through villages causing damage to houses, killing crops and poisoning drinking water.
In December 2014, photographer Remi Chauvin recreated a set of historical images depicting the first impacts of climate change in these countries where no one lives more than a few metres above the sea. Click or drag to view the images then and now ...


I don't think I have ever seen black on the rainbow imagery before. That it some intense hot towers.



By the way can someone please tell me the current central pressure of Pam?

TIA

By the way can someone please tell me the current central pressure of Pam?

TIA


Vanuatu meteorological services has 941 hPa
The official RSMC has 946 hPa
It almost seems like there are extreme weather things of one kind or another going on all over the world, or something. Wonder what that's all about?
Quoting 51. hydrus:

If nothing else, Boston will get more winter weather.




I say give them another 3-5". We are so close to the record, it should just be broken. Go big or go home ;) :p
73. vis0
India_Australia_Brasil_Mars_Nope ...just observing
A 1539z (11:39am EDT) microwave pass caught the core of Pam. Its eye is huge, and dry air lurks nearby. Both of these factors are likely to mitigate a quicker rate of intensification for now.

This one's for sar, it's in his neck of the woods, and as he seems to be missing out lately...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC067-069-112015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0017.150311T1952Z-150311T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
252 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HEADLAND...
NORTH CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 249 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEBB...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH. WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN THE DOTHAN AREA.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SIGMA...PLEASANT PLAINS...HEADLAND MUNICIPAL A/P...GRANDBERRY
CROSSROADS...NEWVILLE...TUMBLETON...BALKUM...MILLE R AND HALEBURG.
Quoting 68. barbamz:


What a coincidence: I was just about to post this:

Climate change in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati, before and after - interactive
The Guardian, Remi Chauvin and Eric Hilaire, Wednesday 11 March 2015 12.00 GMT
In the low-lying Pacific atolls of the Marshall Islands and Kiribati rising sea levels have made every high tide a dangerous event. Regular floods wash through villages causing damage to houses, killing crops and poisoning drinking water.
In December 2014, photographer Remi Chauvin recreated a set of historical images depicting the first impacts of climate change in these countries where no one lives more than a few metres above the sea. Click or drag to view the images then and now ...

thats bad, and very unfortunately will get much, much worse..Unless something incredible happens.
Hot day across Central Florida with a few spots touching 90. A few showers starting to pop up. Doesn't feel like March 11th.
Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis.

Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis.


OH NO! Hide that from Scott!
Now the BBC meteorologists as well stepped into the Italian snow from last week (March 5/6), lol. Man, they all are late to this party ... As far as I could see, the BBC has completely missed the whole bora-storm-thing in the Mediterranean anyway.

Record breaking snowfall in Italy?
BBC weather video, 11 March 2015 Last updated at 16:28
A massive 256 cm fell over Capracotta, Italy in less than 24 hours. If confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization it will make it the most snowfall recorded in one day. BBC Weather's Matt Taylor reports on BBC World.
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Only 4 days in March that best match the current state of my ENSO+MJO index. Can you guess what year?

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
+6C temperature anomalies in the subsurface equatorial Pacific! #Ninoiscoming again
Forecast to be a "CAT6" from the RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis.


Literally off the chart...Dies down quick tho..

And I dont know about anyone else, but this grabbed my attention immediately
Very east of the track.
Nice pattern change expected across Florida next week!!!
Pam: EWRC and development of a large eye but still not in the best shape (fortunately)

(Note that this loop is always lagging behind a bit; another EWRC should already be on the way ).


(Saved current image).
JTWC track forecast for TS BAVI sends it torwards the Mariana islands as a TS.



Navy keeps changing designation for South Atlantic system:

90LS CARI 150311 1800 29.2S 45.7W ATL 40 1000

The southerly flow today over Florida has brought warm, tropical weather over the state, triggering some fairly decent pop-up thunderstorms over Orlando right now.

Quoting 81. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Only 4 days in March that best match the current state of my ENSO+MJO index. Can you guess what year?

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
+6C temperature anomalies in the subsurface equatorial Pacific! #Ninoiscoming again
Scott is going to flood us with i told ya so,s.....He was persistent, maybe he was seeing something that some werent...who knows.
Quoting 81. Gearsts:
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Only 4 days in March that best match the current state of my ENSO+MJO index. Can you guess what year?

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
+6C temperature anomalies in the subsurface equatorial Pacific! #Ninoiscoming again


I wouldn't mind another guest post from Dr. V here with a more detailed explanation of what has him so confident, especially since last year was such a bust.
Quoting 81. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Only 4 days in March that best match the current state of my ENSO+MJO index. Can you guess what year?

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
+6C temperature anomalies in the subsurface equatorial Pacific! #Ninoiscoming again
Something worthy of note. If this dies down as quick as forecast, the push may not be as strong as if it had made it all the way across.
Just got a flood watch from Thursday evening (600pm) to Saturday morning (700am).
1.5-3 inches expected. On top of saturated grounds.
Quoting 77. luvtogolf:

Hot day across Central Florida with a few spots touching 90. A few showers starting to pop up. Doesn't feel like March 11th.

OK for you down in central Florida in the warm Zones.
27.9681° N, 82.4764° W

Here we had 30/C or about 87/F today in Murcia Spain.
37.9861° N, 1.1303° W

We are conceding 10 degrees of latitude to you for the same temps.
Quoting 93. TimSoCal:



I wouldn't mind another guest post from Dr. V here with a more detailed explanation of what has him so confident, especially since last year was such a bust.
I agree. I must say , I was following close last year , and I do know a thing or two about El Nino. Suffice it to say, the numbers were there for a significant event , but somehow , was stopped in its tracks by what I believe was cold than usual water in the S.E. Pacific. Of course, it was winter down there when this was occurring, but anomalies were below average...Maybe some dat cool Antarctic ice melt going on underneath the ice sheets had something to do with it....:)
Quoting 92. CaneFreeCR:

Ask Senator "Snowball" Inhofe!
lets not...He may sign on to the blog...Monomania has been minimal , hope it stays.
Quoting 96. PlazaRed:


OK for you down in central Florida in the warm Zones.
27.9681° N, 82.4764° W

Here we had 30/C or about 87/F today in Murcia Spain.
37.9861° N, 1.1303° W

We are conceding 10 degrees of latitude to you for the same temps.
There are big changes in the works as far as temps here are concerned.. Decent chance some areas on the eastern third will be conceding record cold temps again...There may even be something more serious....its wait and see.
I'm just interested to see if they retire Gonzalo.When is the WMO meeting anyway?
101. 882MB
Absolutely incredible, not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 system in this neck of the woods. With such a strong MJO pulse and the right conditions, these are the results: Bavi, Pam, Nathan, Olwyn.



Bavi



Pam



Nathan



Olwyn

Quoting 81. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Only 4 days in March that best match the current state of my ENSO+MJO index. Can you guess what year?

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
+6C temperature anomalies in the subsurface equatorial Pacific! #Ninoiscoming again
Hmm...Idk 1776?

Quoting 88. Tropicsweatherpr:

JTWC track forecast for TS BAVI sends it torwards the Mariana islands as a TS.







It looks like it'll pass close to Guam as well.
Quoting 101. 882MB:

Absolutely incredible, not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 system in this neck of the woods. With such a strong MJO pulse and the right conditions, these are the results: Bavi, Pam, Nathan, Olwyn.

Sounds like something LeBron James would say. :P But I absolutely agree incredible to say the least. That basin is on fire.
In comparing the current SST anomalies vs last year, we're observing a fairly typical global SST response to an El Nino, w/ most of the tropics ending up slightly warmer than this time last year, a stronger +PDO (well, that's kind of obvious :) ) & the AMO is (somewhat) healthier, w/ a relative +AMO tripole...



Look at the dry air getting entrained into the storm!
Quoting 105. Webberweather53:

In comparing the current SST anomalies vs last year, we're observing a fairly typical global SST response to an El Nino, w/ most of the tropics ending up slightly warmer than this time last year, a stronger +PDO (well, that's kind of obvious :) ) & the AMO is (somewhat) healthier, w/ a relative +AMO tripole...

how's the atlantic season shaping up? 2012 2013 and 2014 were quiet years in the atlantic. could we get a 4th year in a row? right now looks like there is a modoki el nino going on and the MDR has been fluctuating going very cold and then warming up only to go back to being cold.
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:

Forecast to be a "CAT6" from the RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre



I thought Category 5 was the absolute highest on the Saff-Simp scale. Do they feel a need to invent a new category for Pam or something?
Enso regions continue to fall. I believe it's because of the easterly trade winds in the epac , and the westerly trade winds in the wpac are converging in the cpac. Thus resulting in cooling in the enso regions, mainly in enso regions 1+2, 3,and 3.4. Nino region 1+2 may potentially reach it's lowest value in over a year. Any thoughts???
Quoting 100. washingtonian115:

I'm just interested to see if they retire Gonzalo.When is the WMO meeting anyway?
They have one coming up in Japan from the 14-18 on Disaster Risk Reduction.

You can see their upcoming meetings and workshops here. Link
The "joint venture" of tropical cyclones in the WPAC gets its equivalent in the wild parade of cyclonic windstorms in the North Atlantic which are heading towards the Arctic. Fortunately they don't bother us in Germany, but the British Isles and Norway are grazed by them, not to speak of Iceland.





In the Eastern Mediterranean there's also some kind of interesting weather going on: Go here and click the frames for an animation. Whatever ... too much weather everywhere right now, lol. So for now a good night, folks!
Quoting 77. luvtogolf:

Hot day across Central Florida with a few spots touching 90. A few showers starting to pop up. Doesn't feel like March 11th.


Sea breeze convection looks pretty decent right now, surprisingly there are a few stronger cells with a decent amount of lightning, looks like early summer, not March.

Interesting for sure, sadly stable air behind the sea breeze due to cool water temps will probably keep the cells east of Pinellas.

Quoting 105. Webberweather53:

In comparing the current SST anomalies vs last year, we're observing a fairly typical global SST response to an El Nino, w/ most of the tropics ending up slightly warmer than this time last year, a stronger +PDO (well, that's kind of obvious :) ) & the AMO is (somewhat) healthier, w/ a relative +AMO tripole...

What is the +AMO tripole? And when you said "typical sst response to an el nino", is this a good thing for the Atlantic?
Quoting 110. GTstormChaserCaleb:

They have one coming up in Japan from the 14-18 on Disaster Risk Reduction.

You can see their upcoming meetings and workshops here. Link


It is not directly up to the WMO to decide about the retirement. Firstly a concerned country can apply for retirement and then the WMO-meeting will decide about the application. If there is no application by a country at all, there will be no retirement.
Quoting 110. GTstormChaserCaleb:

They have one coming up in Japan from the 14-18 on Disaster Risk Reduction.

You can see their upcoming meetings and workshops here. Link


Region IV meeting is April 13-17, San Jose, Costa Rica

Link
Quoting 108. Huracan94:


I thought Category 5 was the absolute highest on the Saff-Simp scale. Do they feel a need to invent a new category for Pam or something?


The RSMC of Fidji uses the australian scale, e.g. the scale of the BOM, where a CAT5-Storm has sustained winds averaged over 10 minutes of over 200 km/h or equal/greater to/than 110 kts (around 125 kts averaged over one minute).
What appears to be a 6 is due to the poor resolution of the image or rather the poor resolution of the script.
Click to enlarge:

Sun is up and Pam is performing her new tight eye! Pinhole?!
Quoting 102. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hmm...Idk 1776?


It was 1597
Quoting Jedkins01:


Sea breeze convection looks pretty decent right now, surprisingly there are a few stronger cells with a decent amount of lightning, looks like early summer, not March.

Interesting for sure, sadly stable air behind the sea breeze due to cool water temps will probably keep the cells east of Pinellas.



Radar looks very impressive for March. Unfortunately, we won't see any here in Pinellas County - we usually don't with this setup so early in the season.
Sweet! They are still updating this one, wish they would update the one with the SAL though, last update was on Aug. 12 of last year.

Quoting 116. ChateauChalon:

The RSMC of Fidji uses the australian scale, e.g. the scale of the BOM, where a CAT5-Storm has sustained winds averaged over 10 minutes of over 200 km/h or equal/greater to/than 110 kts (around 125 kts averaged over one minute).
What appears to be a 6 is due to the poor resolution of the image or rather the poor resolution of the script.

Aussis discussing the "category 6" of Pam in their weather blog as well ...
Quoting 116. ChateauChalon:



The RSMC of Fidji uses the australian scale, e.g. the scale of the BOM, where a CAT5-Storm has sustained winds averaged over 10 minutes of over 200 km/h or equal/greater to/than 110 kts (around 125 kts averaged over one minute).
What appears to be a 6 is due to the poor resolution of the image or rather the poor resolution of the script.

Oh ok, gotchya. I could've sworn that was a six though. XD
Anyway, looking at the satellite for Port Vila it looks like they're getting the southern inflow from Pam right now. Current pressure is 29.4 inches and dropping...things are going to get messy for them soon.
Quoting 107. wunderweatherman123:

how's the atlantic season shaping up? 2012 2013 and 2014 were quiet years in the atlantic. could we get a 4th year in a row? right now looks like there is a modoki el nino going on and the MDR has been fluctuating going very cold and then warming up only to go back to being cold.


Well, it certainly looks that way & the current modoki El Nino, IMO looks like a seasonal manifestation of ENSO, may see it modify into an east-based or hybrid event w/ increasing time, especially after the autumnal equinox when the southern Asia/Indian Monsoon quiets down & the MJO once again, gains relative equatorial symmetry... Despite the ongoing El Nino, confused AMO, & a host of related unfavorable seasonal proxies, just like last year, admist these unfavorable pre-conditions, the one factor lending support to this season is the persistence of the -IOD, which favors a stronger African Easterly Jet & robust AEWs...

-IOD vs +IOD years African precipitation



-IOD vs +IOD years Global SSTs, (also note how -IOD years have a decent correlations w/ La Ninas, which are generally more conducive to tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic)...



Reminiscent to a large-scale sea breeze circulation & the logic behind cool Gulf of Guinea, the cooler SSTs surrounding Africa focuses increased upward motion & instability over the continent itself, favoring the development of more intense AEWs which stand a better chance to survive the hostile conditions that will be imparted on the Atlantic this year (thus, perhaps we'll once again see a few weak tropical cyclones get their act together over the deep tropics during the peak of the season)...




Over the last 5 years (2010-2014 vs 2005-2009), or the last few decades for that matter, sub-saharan Africa has been steadily growing wetter, and it's plausible to think that we may finally be exiting the multidecadal dry sahel period that's been in place since 1970...






Additionally, despite the overall inactivity in the eastern deep tropical Atlantic, Africa was wetter than normal last year, & at least through about the end of August, eddy kinetic energy was also above normal...


.
http://216.119.122.173/telsatbb.vu/cam1.pnx.jpeg?a= 0.8090942872222513
Found a live streaming webcam from Port Vila. It only updates every 30 seconds or so though.
Quoting 123. Webberweather53:



Well, it certainly looks that way & the current modoki El Nino, IMO looks like a seasonal manifestation of ENSO, may see it modify into an east-based or hybrid event w/ increasing time, especially after the autumnal equinox when the southern Asia/Indian Monsoon quiets down & the MJO once again, gains relative equatorial symmetry... Despite the ongoing El Nino, confused AMO, & a host of related unfavorable seasonal proxies, just like last year, admist these unfavorable pre-conditions, the one factor lending support to this season is the persistence of the -IOD, which favors a stronger African Easterly Jet & robust AEWs...

-IOD vs +IOD years African precipitation



-IOD vs +IOD years Global SSTs, (also note how -IOD years have a decent correlations w/ La Ninas, which are generally more conducive to tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic)...



Reminiscent to a large-scale sea breeze circulation & the logic behind cool Gulf of Guinea, the cooler SSTs surrounding Africa focuses increased upward motion & instability over the continent itself, favoring the development of more intense AEWs which stand a better chance to survive the hostile conditions that will be imparted on the Atlantic this year (thus, perhaps we'll once again see a few weak tropical cyclones get their act together over the deep tropics during the peak of the season)...




Over the last 5 years (2010-2014 vs 2005-2009), or the last few decades for that matter, sub-saharan Africa has been steadily growing wetter, and it's plausible to think that we may finally be exiting the multidecadal dry sahel period that's been in place since 1970...






Additionally, despite the overall inactivity in the eastern deep tropical Atlantic, Africa was wetter than normal last year, & at least through about the end of August, eddy kinetic energy was also above normal...



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 120. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sweet! They are still updating this one, wish they would update the one with the SAL though, last update was on Aug. 12 of last year.




Sahel looks very dry right now. but Webbers post #123 offers interesting things about this.
129. DDR
Interesting read Webberweather53
Just as interesting,the poui trees here in Trinidad are flowering early which tells me a wet and early start to our rainy season,most areas here are well above average in rainfall away,hardly a bush fire anywhere.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MUCH OF THE WEEK...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR FOUR
INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$