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Tranquility Reigns across Tornado Alley; Cyclone Pam Rages in Southwest Pacific

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 7:28 PM GMT on March 10, 2015

There’s a calm across the nation’s tornado-prone regions, a quietness that seems odd when you consider the calendar. By crunching numbers from the monthly and yearly severe weather summaries produced by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC), it becomes clear that tornadoes are just part of the story.

Through March 9, the U.S. has racked up only 28 preliminary tornado reports, compared to an average of 95 for the same time span (Jan. 1 to Mar. 9) during the years 2000 – 2014. (Note that the 2014 data remain preliminary.) We’ve had quiet starts to tornado seasons before--in 2002, there’d been only 5 tornadoes by this point in the year--but 2015 stands out even more for its utter lack of strong thunderstorms. The most notable convective excitement of the year has been Jim Cantore’s amped-up encounters with thundersnow in New England (now Auto-Tuned for posterity). If you happened to encounter ice falling from the sky, it was more likely sleet than hail.

The dearth of severe weather comes into focus when we look beyond tornadoes. Through March 9, we’ve seen 119 preliminary reports of severe wind, compared to a 15-year average of 708. Even more striking is the almost-complete absence of large hailstones. The 15-year average up to this point in the year is 362 reports of severe hail (at least 1” in diameter), but in 2015 thus far, we’ve had only two such reports, both occuring in northern Louisiana on Feb. 1.


Figure 1. Total counts of tornadoes, severe hail, and severe wind for the period Jan. 1 – Mar. 9 in each year from 2000 to 2015. The national criterion for severe hail was raised from ¾” to 1” in 2010. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground; data from NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

It’s pretty easy to see what’s caused the severe-weather drought of early 2015. A stubborn upper-level trough over Hudson Bay has kept northwest flow dominant across the eastern half of the country, shunting potentially unstable air masses well out to sea before they have a chance to generate thunderstorms. Even high-contrast fronts, like the one that plowed through the South last week, haven’t enough upper-level support ahead of the cold air in order to produce severe weather. The large-scale patterns have been so clear-cut that even the ambiguity that might prompt a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch has been in short supply. So far this year, SPC has issued just four watches (all tornado watches). This is the latest we’ve gone without at least one severe thunderstorm watch, and the lowest total number of watches through March 9, in records that go back to 1970. On average, more than 30 watches have been issued by this point. The first nine days of March 2015 didn’t see a single severe weather report or a single watch; no March in the official record has gone past March 10 without at least one watch.


Figure 2. Persistent northwest flow kept severe weather set-ups to a minimum across the central and eastern U.S. from late January through February. Image credit: The Weather Channel.


Variability in tornado seasons is increasing
After the catastrophic tornado season of 2011, which took more than 550 U.S. lives, the pendulum swung hard in the other direction. The period 2012 – 2014 saw the fewest tornadoes of any three-year period going back to 1950, when reliable tornado records began. As for 2015, the odds appear slim for any major severe outbreaks in the U.S. over at least the next week. “I would, in fact, not be surprised if we do not see a significant tornado in the month of March,” tornado researcher Victor Gensini (College of DuPage) told me in an email. It’s important to remember that a season that gets off to a slow start can still become active by spring, as noted by the Weather Channel’s Jon Erdman in this overview. And even a below-average season, such as 2013, can feature a few devastating days, such as the deadly outbreaks in late May 2013 that struck in and near Shawnee, Moore, and El Reno, Oklahoma.



Figure 3. Cloud-to-ground lightning near Tulsa, OK, on May 31, 2013, a day that also brought deadly tornadoes and flash flooding to the Oklahoma City area. Image credit: wunderphotographer mrwing13.

If it seems like tornado seasons are getting more variable, your impression is backed up by research. Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory) led a study published last autumn in Science that details the increased ups and downs in tornado occurrence on a variety of time scales. Looking only at twisters with at least F1/EF1 strength on the Fujita/Enhanced Fujita damage scale, the study found that the number of days with at least one F1/EF1 tornado has dropped since the 1980s, while the number of days with at least 30 such tornadoes has risen dramatically. As a result, twisters are becoming more concentrated into a few high-intensity days each year. About 20% of all tornadoes in the decade 2004 - 2013 occurred on the three biggest days of each year, whereas this was the case for only 10% of all tornadoes before that decade. The reasons behind the shift aren’t yet clear, but the authors observe, “If the variability continues to increase, it could lead to an even greater concentration of tornadoes on fewer days.”

Seasonal timing is becoming more variable too, according to the study. For example, in all but three years from 1954 to 1996, the 50th F1/EF1 tornado of the year was reported between March 1 and April 10. But in the subsequent period (1997 – 2013), just 6 of 17 years saw the 50th twister occur in that early-spring interval, which implies that seasons are getting off to faster and/or slower starts. We’ll have more on climate change and tornadoes in an upcoming post.

Pam becomes a powerhouse in the South Pacific
In the South Pacific Ocean about 1,800 miles east of Australia, Tropical Cyclone Pam has quickly intensified to a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 90 mph as of 8 am EDT Tuesday. Pam has generated quite a bit of hype over the past few days, thanks to eye-popping model projections by the GFS and European models which show the cyclone intensifying into a Category 5 monster with a central pressure less than 880 mb by late this week. If this forecast verifies, it would make Pam one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded, world-wide. However, these models are not known for making reliable intensity forecasts, and are generally disregarded by NHC for intensity forecasts in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. The HWRF model, which is one of our better intensity forecast models, predicted with its 06Z (2 am EDT) Tuesday run that Pam would reach a central pressure of 902 mb by Friday, which would make it a still-formidable Category 5 cyclone. The Tuesday morning official intensity forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) goes along with this idea, making Pam a Category 5 storm by Friday. Pam is an unusually large cyclone over extremely deep warm water, with widespread surface temperatures above 30°C (86°F). With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots and expected to be in the low to moderate range this week, Pam should be able to undergo a period of rapid intensification into at least a Category 4 storm. Fortunately, no major populated areas are in the projected path of Pam, although a westward shift in track could threaten the islands of Vanuatu.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Pam taken at 23:00 UTC Monday March 9, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Rare subtropical depression off the coast of Brazil
A rare subtropical depression, with characteristics of both a tropical and a non-tropical system, has formed in the South Atlantic waters off the coast of Brazil, according to the 8 am EDT March 10, 2015 analysis by the Navy Hydrographic Center in Brazil (thanks go to wunderground member Tropicsweatherpr for alerting us to this.) The unnamed storm has top wind speeds near 35 - 40 mph, according to an 8:20 am EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite. The surface pressure was near 1008 mb, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was on its east side, in a band well removed from the circulation center. Sea surface temperatures are near 27°C, which is about 0.5°C above average, and 1°C above what is typically needed to support a tropical storm. Phase space diagrams from Florida State show the storm has a warm core at low levels which should get better defined through Wednesday, but by Thursday the storm will begin losing its tropical characteristics as it moves over cooler waters, and it is unlikely the storm has time to become fully tropical. The unnamed storm is not a threat to make landfall.


Figure 5. Surface analysis from 8 am EDT Tuesday March 10, 2015, from the Navy Hydrographic Center in Brazil showing a 1008 mb subtropical depression off the coast of Brazil.

South Atlantic tropical storm history
Tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that until 2011, there was no official naming of depressions or storms done. In 2011, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center instituted a naming system with nine names, of which two have been used so far (Arani in 2011, and Bapo in 2015.) If this week’s storm becomes a subtropical storm, it will be called Cari. Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of fewer than ten tropical or subtropical storms to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. An unnamed February 2006 storm may have attained wind speeds of 65 mph, and a subtropical storm brought heavy flooding to the coast of Uruguay in January 2009, killing fourteen people. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

Climate change and South Atlantic storms
It is uncertain whether climate change may cause an increase in South Atlantic tropical storms in the future. While today's storm formed over waters that were about 0.5°C above average in temperature, Catarina in 2004 formed over waters that were 0.5°C cooler than average. Sea surface temperature is not the main limiting factor inhibiting these storms--wind shear is. How climate change might change wind shear over the South Atlantic has not been well-studied.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Severe Weather tropical cyclone

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 353. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's easy because it's not in the Atlantic basin.
Well with a possible moderate El nino later this year,cold AMO and low instability we better get used to watching other oceans for Tropical cyclones like the Epac for the summer.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY ONE (17U)
5:15 AM EST March 11 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category One (990 hPa) located at 13.5S 147.5E or 325 kilometers northeast of Cooktown and 285 kilometers northeast of Cape Flattery has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Nathan continues to move to the west southwest while intensifying. The system is expected to continue approaching the coast today, before turning and moving away from the coast late tomorrow.

GALES extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation overnight tonight.

GALES could extend north to Lockhart River and as far south as Port Douglas later on Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.9S 147.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 14.1S 146.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.8S 146.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.7S 148.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
Convection has dissipated somewhat around the center of tropical cyclone Nathan during recent hours, however the remaining convection has adopted a more traditional curved band appearance, with suggestions of near complete encirclement on the 1700Z GMI microwave pass. CIMSS satellite winds from 1200Z indicate moderate northeasterly wind shear persists over the system.

Position accuracy has improved to good with recent microwave passes. Some evidence of a partial ragged eye on the 17Z MTSAT IR image. Curved band pattern applied with Dvorak gives a 0.6 wrap of the deeper convection for DT 3.0 [DT would be 4.0 applying a MG eye with MG surround pattern, but this is considered tenuous at this stage]. MET is 2.0, PAT is 2.5. Final T 3.0. Intensity is analyzed at 45 knots given improved microwave structure and possible partial eye.

Tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should slow the westwards movement of the system.

Nathan should continue to intensify, particularly after 1200Z on Wednesday as it moves into a more favourable environment for further development with lowering vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29C.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Coen to Cape Tribulation

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Lockhart River to Coen and Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
2:36 AM EST March 11 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 14.9S 116.1E or 650 kilometers north of Karratha and 810 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are not expected on the Pilbara coast during Wednesday or Thursday morning but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. Should the system take a more southerly track during Thursday then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne as the system approaches and may lead to flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from coastal areas of Port Hedland to Coral Bay and adjacent inland parts of the Pilbara including Pannawonica and Nanutarra
The temperatures across the country hasn't been conducive to severe weather thus far this Spring .. Even the southern states have been cooler then normal over the past several weeks ..
HURRICANE WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 10/1928 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 963HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 SOUTH
170.2 EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 10.9S 170.2E at 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 4 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS BY
111800 UTC.
Thank you Dr Henson. Great blog.
88 here in Longwood, 90 up the road in Deland. Very hot week ahead for us in FL.

thanks for the new post.....I agree the trend seems to be calmer weather.....I hope it continues....
STS - Stay cool. I'll try and send some of the Arctic air here down to you. We have a nice week of sub zero lows.
Some areas are hitting 90 as of 3pm across the interior of FL. First 90's of the year and about 130 to 140 to go.



Epac is going to be nuts this year
Thanks Jeff & Bob...
STS - reminds me of why I wanted to leave. At least with an El NIÑO coming you have a lower chance of a hurricane coming. Granted all it takes is ONE to make for a bad season.
Still not perfect, but Pam's core is getting much better organized. Just about a closed eye.

Thank you both for the joint entry today. I will note that we can't access the full text of the article by Dr. Brooks (unless you subscribe) but hope that you will address some of the issues raised there in an upcoming post. The raw statistics posted above don't lie, and they are presented in a very logical manner, but I will admit that I am a bit skeptical as to whether these recent anomalies with tornado seasons, from past climatology, can be tied into global warming issues. Every anomaly that we see in global-regional weather patterns may not be tied to climate change issues and I would note that Dr. Gray and company still reject a "discernible" impact on the Atlantic hurricane seasons at this point in time from climate change.

I am not denying current global warming but just noting that a lot of scientists and scholars (publish or perish) seem to be implying that many events might be tied to global warming (now tornadoes) when your Blog actually suggests the most logical cause for the current issue this year: It’s pretty easy to see what’s caused the severe-weather drought of early 2015. A stubborn upper-level trough over Hudson Bay has kept northwest flow dominant across the eastern half of the country, shunting potentially unstable air masses well out to sea before they have a chance to generate thunderstorms.

Just making a personal comment/observation (for caution on making a connection between this tornado issue and GW at this time) and not tying to offend anyone with my comment.

STS - reminds me of why I wanted to leave.


high 5 to that.....don't miss those mid 90's with humidity to match....even when i'm over 100 degrees...most days my feels like temp is lower than a typical city in south florida....
It does not appear from the Editor's summary on the article that they are making a connection at this time (no one actually knows):

Tornadoes clustering in greater numbers

Will global warming cause more tornadoes? If so, that has not happened yet. Brooks compiled data on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States between 1954 and 2013 to determine if and how tornado numbers have changed. Although the authors saw no clear trend in the annual number of tornadoes, they did see more clusters of tornadoes since the 1970s. In other words, there has been a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes but an increase in the number of days with multiple tornadoes. Why this clustering effect has occurred is not clear.
Seems to me like the increase in the hypo/hyperactive tornado activity is due to the variable annual orientation of the larger, more persistent polar jet stream Rossby waves, that have occurred in recent years.
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 2h 2 hours ago
Busy tropics ... ECMWF takes Pam down to 895 mb at lowest.
+3 days
Mostly Cloudy

86°F

30°C

Humidity48%
Wind SpeedS 10 mph
Barometer30.09 in (1018.9 mb)
Dewpoint64°F (18°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index87°F (31°C)

Last Update on 10 Mar 3:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91°N Lon: 82.69°W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


It's a warm one here! I like it though.
Quoting 16. ricderr:

STS - reminds me of why I wanted to leave.


high 5 to that.....don't miss those mid 90's with humidity to match....even when i'm over 100 degrees...most days my feels like temp is lower than a typical city in south florida....



I did not find the Florida heat oppressive even in Tallahassee. But what got to me was the duration.. week after week of highs around 90 or more and lows in the low to mid 70s.. week after week.. on and on..
and on..

Tomato plants died. New seedlings failed to thrive. Beans did not set pods. Corn didn't produce after late July for reasons I haven't figured out.. the plants just didn't thrive. Squash.. again early august was the cutoff.

Watermelons, sweetpotatoes and peppers did thrive. Cantaloupes got root knot nematodes but that was a soil problem not a heat problem, they're common in warm sandy soils.

Meanwhile there was something about not having a single cool day for four months that just got to me.

Quoting 16. ricderr:

STS - reminds me of why I wanted to leave.


high 5 to that.....don't miss those mid 90's with humidity to match....even when i'm over 100 degrees...most days my feels like temp is lower than a typical city in south florida....


Humid here because I am still on the Ocean.. But the temps don't usually go above 70 and even if they do for the high, the low is still in the 50s. In the winter, when it gets cold, it "dries" out. I admit that the freezing cold can get in the way of things, like washing the car outside with the garden hose doesn't work well.

Quoting 20. Jedkins01:

Mostly Cloudy

86°F

30°C

Humidity48%
Wind SpeedS 10 mph
Barometer30.09 in (1018.9 mb)
Dewpoint64°F (18°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index87°F (31°C)

Last Update on 10 Mar 3:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91°N Lon: 82.69°W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


It's a warm one here! I like it though.


Interesting as all short range models are showing a seabreeze collision across lake County around 8pm or 9pm with even some thunderstorms some of which could build toward NW Orange County around 10pm. Getting to be that time of year.
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:




I did not find the Florida heat oppressive even in Tallahassee. But what got to me was the duration.. week after week of highs around 90 or more and lows in the low to mid 70s.. week after week.. on and on..
and on..

Tomato plants died. New seedlings failed to thrive. Beans did not set pods. Corn didn't produce after late July for reasons I haven't figured out.. the plants just didn't thrive. Squash.. again early august was the cutoff.

Watermelons, sweetpotatoes and peppers did thrive. Cantaloupes got root knot nematodes but that was a soil problem not a heat problem, they're common in warm sandy soils.

Meanwhile there was something about not having a single cool day for four months that just got to me.




Tallahassee is in a different climate zone than South Florida and even Orlando... Add about a month to the duration.

I tried planting watermelons a bunch of times in South Florida. Watering them and even planting some in the shade and they all withered and died. Even tried in the "winter" months... Just can't do it.
Hey sar, buddy how you doing up in Eufaula?

Rich Thomas @RichThomasWSFA
Could we tie or break our record today? At 3:PM it's 85 in Montgomery, 1 shy of the record. Eufaula is at 87! #alwx pic.twitter.com/5UndQgeq5f

Quoting 20. Jedkins01:

Mostly Cloudy

86°F

30°C

Humidity48%
Wind SpeedS 10 mph
Barometer30.09 in (1018.9 mb)
Dewpoint64°F (18°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index87°F (31°C)

Last Update on 10 Mar 3:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91°N Lon: 82.69°W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


It's a warm one here! I like it though.
That South wind direction will do it.

Also, dry in the upper levels over FL.



Meanwhile, training over parts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.



I know sar is not a happy camper he is missing out.
Quoting 22. Dakster:



Humid here because I am still on the Ocean.. But the temps don't usually go above 70 and even if they do for the high, the low is still in the 50s. In the winter, when it gets cold, it "dries" out. I admit that the freezing cold can get in the way of things, like washing the car outside with the garden hose doesn't work well.




Check out the UF agricultural site. They have figured out how to grow most anything here. Try the blueberries. They last for years even in the Keys and are great!

Link

Edit: Here's a link to their Home Page...

Link

Edit #2: I've manage to grow watermelons in Ft Lauderdale but haven't tried that one here yet. Might be tough to do with the deer. I don't know.
JTWC updated PAM up to 90kts.

17P PAM 150310 1800 11.1S 170.1E SHEM 90 956
Thanks dok!
Quoting 28. Tropicsweatherpr:

JTWC updated PAM up to 90kts.

17P PAM 150310 1800 11.1S 170.1E SHEM 90 956


If that's 10 minute sustained wind speeds, then Pam is now a Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Don't normally look at the SAL charts for the Atlantic this time of the year (vs. during hurricane season) but looking at all that dry dusty air around Florida and Caribbean made me take a look; wow...............Might explain some of the really pretty pink sunsets I have seen in Tallahassee the last few days.



Quoting StormTrackerScott:
88 here in Longwood, 90 up the road in Deland. Very hot week ahead for us in FL.



I guess we're missing all of that rain you forecasted last week for us.
No rain or cold front = hotter temps.
Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

Don't normally look at the SAL charts for the Atlantic this time of the year (vs. during hurricane season) but looking at all that dry dusty air around Florida and Caribbean made me take a look; wow...............Might explain some of the really pretty pink sunsets I have seen in Tallahassee the last few days.






I would think it would have a hard time making it this far with the deep dips in the jet this time of year... Dinner time! Be lurkin' later.
Pam and Nathan, such beautiful systems to watch as they undergo there developing stages. Pam of course, the big one has taken its time to consolidate, due to its large size. But it looks like in the next few hours the eye should be popping out on satellite imagery, you can tell already if you watch the SSD Floater on it. Now Nathan a smaller system, is not developing that quickly due to Pam's huge outflow creating shear on it, but that should be short lived probably 2 to 3 days from now, as Pam moves south Nathan will be under low to moderate wind shear allowing it to strengthen, so I expect Nathan to grow into a decent storm as it moves away from the Queensland coast tomorrow thankfully, because Australia needs a break with these last 2 storms Lam and Marcia. Though I have to say just as Pam and Nathan, if Nathan moves a little further west then Queensland will get worse weather then expected. Still Queensland is getting hit with squalls as the cyclone is close by and being that its being hit by easterly shear is putting the wet side over Queensland. Now with pam also a few more miles westward will bring the core of strongest winds over the island chain of Vanuatu. Something to keep an eye on.



Pam





Nathan



Quoting 16. ricderr:

STS - reminds me of why I wanted to leave.


high 5 to that.....don't miss those mid 90's with humidity to match....even when i'm over 100 degrees...most days my feels like temp is lower than a typical city in south florida....

I was raised in SE FL, lived there 20 years and never got used to the oppressive humidity. I've lived in the Los Angeles area over 30 years now and even the mid 90s in the shade it feels comfortable to me.

There were a few months of adjustment to the frigid nighttime temps below 70 but now I wear shorts and T shirt when I walk the dogs in the morning if it's over 50.
Quoting 30. yonzabam:



If that's 10 minute sustained wind speeds, then Pam is now a Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

JTWC is 1-minute sustained.
She's still trying to pull that core together symmetrically.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank you both for the joint entry today. I will note that we can't access the full text of the article by Dr. Brooks (unless you subscribe) but hope that you will address some of the issues raised there in an upcoming post. The raw statistics posted above don't lie, and they are presented in a very logical manner, but I will admit that I am a bit skeptical as to whether these recent anomalies with tornado seasons, from past climatology, can be tied into global warming issues. Every anomaly that we see in global-regional weather patterns may not be tied to climate change issues and I would note that Dr. Gray and company still reject a "discernible" impact on the Atlantic hurricane seasons at this point in time from climate change.

I am not denying current global warming but just noting that a lot of scientists and scholars (publish or perish) seem to be implying that many events might be tied to global warming (now tornadoes) when your Blog actually suggests the most logical cause for the current issue this year: It%u2019s pretty easy to see what%u2019s caused the severe-weather drought of early 2015. A stubborn upper-level trough over Hudson Bay has kept northwest flow dominant across the eastern half of the country, shunting potentially unstable air masses well out to sea before they have a chance to generate thunderstorms.

Just making a personal comment/observation (for caution on making a connection between this tornado issue and GW at this time) and not tying to offend anyone with my comment.

As noted previously here and elsewhere, every single weather event happening nowadays is occurring in an atmosphere markedly different than that experienced a decade ago (and two decades ago, and three decades ago, and so on). That doesn't mean every weather event we're now experiencing can be attributed to climate change, of course, nor that those events were made worse by it. In fact, only a few events have been positively tied directly to it. But it *does* mean that every one of those weather events is affected by the atmospheric changes in ways either large, small, or both. It's no longer enough to simply say, "A stubborn upper-level trough over Hudson Bay has kept northwest flow dominant across the eastern half of the country, shunting potentially unstable air masses well out to sea before they have a chance to generate thunderstorms," then call it a day; you also need to ask what has made that trough so stubborn and persistent as of late. Is it, as Dr. Jennifer Francis suggests, the loss of Arctic sea ice causing odd perturbations in the jet stream? is it something else? The jury is still out on such questions. But we *do* know this much: things don't just change on their own; something provides the impetus. And, at least at the moment, that impetus appears to bet he four million tons of heat-trapping carbon we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day.

(FWIW, Dr. Gray is on record as disagreeing with mainstream scientists that the climate is actually changing all that much, though one has to wonder how he feels about his 2006 proclamation that warming had stopped and the planet would enter a long cooling phase by 2009 or so. In short, while Dr. Gray is exceptionally knowledgeable about tropical meteorology, his climate science bona fides are practically non-existent, and his credibility in that area has been severely tarnished by his paid speaking engagements in front of fossil-fuel groups. IOW: caveat emptor.)
I stand by my earlier post and comments as it pertains to tornadoes; don't see anyone making a viable conclusive connection at this time. Yall Have a Safe Weather Evening and see you folks sometime tomorrow.
Quoting 34. 882MB:



You can see the outline of an eye on Nathan in that last frame.
One of the most, possibly to become the most, impressive upward MJO pulses on record for March. It's no secret why the tropics are getting very active.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST March 11 2015
============================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 4.0N 172.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Thanks, Mr. Henson & Dr. Masters. Minor correction - the storm off Brazil, if named, becomes Cari, not Carl.
Quoting 27. ChillinInTheKeys:



Check out the UF agricultural site. They have figured out how to grow most anything here. Try the blueberries. They last for years even in the Keys and are great!

Link

Edit: Here's a link to their Home Page...

Link

Edit #2: I've manage to grow watermelons in Ft Lauderdale but haven't tried that one here yet. Might be tough to do with the deer. I don't know.


Figures they would figure it out after I leave.
Quoting 41. Huracan94:


You can see the outline of an eye on Nathan in that last frame.


What is this about a Nathan? I go to the wunderground.com/hurricane and see no Nathan anywhere.

Edit: Oh. It's on there now.
From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for May 10, 2015:

Going Hot and Cold in February




North America had two distinct weather profiles in February 2015, with a stark east-west difference. In meteorological terms, you would call the pattern an abnormally strong dipole. While many parts of the parched West experienced record-warm temperatures in February, people in the East shivered through unusually cold weather and a series of winter storms that threatened—and in some cases broke—snow records. Read more

Excerpt:

"A new line of research suggests that the loss of Arctic sea ice associated with global warming may be causing the jet stream to slow down and become wavier, thus setting up the unusual pattern over North America. Other researchers think there could be a link between Siberian snowfall and mid-latitude weather extremes. Still others think changes in the Arctic have little to do with mid-latitude weather extremes; instead they see periods with an anomalously sharp gradient in sea surface temperature in the far western Pacific as the key factor. All participants looking at the question agree: more research is needed."
It's oficial.
Forms the Subtropical Storm Cari in the coast of Brazil! The first time ever that 2 storms have a name in the same year!
Link

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I stand by my earlier post and comments as it pertains to tornadoes; don't see anyone making a viable conclusive connection at this time. Yall Have a Safe Weather Evening and see you folks sometime tomorrow.
And I stand by mine, for that connection is indeed both viable and conclusive--and increasingly obvious.

Have a good evening...
Quoting 47. AldreteMichael:



What is this about a Nathan? I go to the wunderground.com/hurricane and see no Nathan anywhere.

Wunderground uses data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific. However, the JTWC is not the official agency, the Bureau of Meteorology is. The BOM is currently advertising on Cyclone Nathan, with 10-minute sustained winds of 45kt (approximately 1-minute sustained winds of 50kt). whereas the JTWC has yet to classify the storm. Ridiculous on JTWC's part, really.

EDIT: It looks like JTWC finally initiated advisories an hour ago.


Quoting 43. TropicalAnalystwx13:
One of the most, possibly to become the most, impressive upward MJO pulses on record for March. It's no secret why the tropics are getting very active.



Also no secret to what this maybe leading too.


From WSI

BOTTOM LINE: A highly amplified mid-latitude pattern is expected to evolve during the medium-range, supporting a temperature outcome that supports record warmth over the western U.S. and record cold over the eastern U.S. In addition to the latest sub-seasonal pattern, there are strong indications that the Pacific Ocean will evolve into a strong El Nino state later this Spring and continue into Summer. El Nino summers are often correlated with an increased frequency of West Pacific Typhoons that often interact with the mid-latitude wave guide and produce colder than average temperatures across the eastern two thirds of the nation. Further, we often observe below average Atlantic hurricane activity during these states. More to come with regards to the evolution of El Nino and if it will impact the Summer U.S. pattern in our next Seasonal Forecast.

Quoting 49. pablosyn:

It's oficial.
Forms the Subtropical Storm Cari in the coast of Brazil! The first time ever that 2 storms have a name in the sam year!
Link




Hi pablo. I can't find at link where it upgrades to Cari. In what section it is?
Quoting 43. TropicalAnalystwx13:

One of the most, possibly to become the most, impressive upward MJO pulses on record for March. It's no secret why the tropics are getting very active.


i am glad that the pulse will weaken as it moves towards the Eastern Pacific.
Australian weather service on Nathan..someone asked for info on it??.......Link
Quoting Gearsts:

870mb. Ties Typhoon Tip's record.
Quoting 51. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wunderground uses data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific. However, the JTWC is not the official agency, the Bureau of Meteorology is. The BOM is currently advertising on Cyclone Nathan, with 10-minute sustained winds of 45kt (approximately 1-minute sustained winds of 50kt). whereas the JTWC has yet to classify the storm. Ridiculous on JTWC's part, really.

EDIT: It looks like JTWC finally initiated advisories an hour ago.



Thank you for the response. I appreciate you going through both time and trouble to answer me.
Quoting 54. Tropicsweatherpr:




Hi pablo. I can't find at link where it upgrades to Cari. In what section it is?


Link

Tweet of a Metereologist of Metsul Meteorologia. Probably the next advisory of Navy will say that!
Quoting 41. Huracan94:


You can see the outline of an eye on Nathan in that last frame.


That's just cold cloud tops that go up and quickly looks like an eye, with the overshooting tops, of the thunderstorms. But look at this loop, you truly think an eye can form, which such moderate to strong shear out of the east, it will take time for Nathan to develop. But sometimes these small systems compared to Pam's large size, there quicker to intensify and create their own environment. it kind of looks like Nathan is trying its best to create its own environment, and if that happens, this one could really surprise us.




THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS AND IN AREAS THAT
NORMALLY HAVE POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...IF NOT LONGER. PLEASE
CHECK THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR STAGE AND FORECAST
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
The city of Laguna, state of Santa Catarina - Brazil has wind gust nearly 40 mph and heavy rain!
Take a look at this loop, Pam looks like its taken a jog westward in the last few frames, correct me if I am wrong. This will not be good in the long run for Vanuatu. You can also see an eye developing. I mentioned about these 2 things in comment#34.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey sar, buddy how you doing up in Eufaula?

Rich Thomas @RichThomasWSFA
Could we tie or break our record today? At 3:PM it's 85 in Montgomery, 1 shy of the record. Eufaula is at 87! #alwx pic.twitter.com/5UndQgeq5f

Other than having my sinus cavities trying to peel the front of my face off, I'm doing fine, thanks. My high was 86, which is the highest temperature I've had since October. Unfortunately, the dry air over east Alabama continues to shred the stream of moisture being pulled into the state. The only places getting rain are in far north Alabama. Things are starting to look a little hopeless for me to get any substantial rain. This thing we have now isn't going to make it over here before it's completely dried out. My only chance is to get a low Thursday on the stalled boundary. So far, this has not played out like the models suggested it would, but I hope a low moving NE will still do the trick.
Quoting 53. Gearsts:



Have the models ever been so persistent in forecasting a sub-900 mb storm before? It's very unsettling...
Quoting 882MB:
Take a look at this loop, Pam looks like its taken a jog westward in the last few frames, correct me if I am wrong. This will not be good in the long run for Vanuatu. I mentioned this in comment#34.

My completely reliable method of checking out jogs (sticking my finger over the center of the storm at the beginning of a loop and seeing where the center is on the last frame) tells me it's an optical illusion. Pam is moving so slowly that the outflow boundary is able to drift west somewhat but the center of the storm hasn't made any significant move at all. It would be unusual for a cyclone to make a west move here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
One of the most, possibly to become the most, impressive upward MJO pulses on record for March. It's no secret why the tropics are getting very active.



olny if it was may the E pac would be in the fun of it has well but wind shear is still too high over there


and like too point out 97W and 96S are all most ready too get a upgrade
Quoting 66. sar2401:

My completely reliable method of checking out jogs (sticking my finger over the center of the storm at the beginning of a loop and seeing where the center is on the last frame) tells me it's an optical illusion. Pam is moving so slowly that the outflow boundary is able to drift west somewhat but the center of the storm hasn't made any significant move at all. It would be unusual for a cyclone to make a west move here.


That's the same thing I did and you can clearly see the center taking a jog westwards. And cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, can make jogs anywhere, especially when they are intensifying, and moving slowly. Its part of there intensification progress and eye consolidation.

Quoting 60. 882MB:



That's just cold cloud tops that go up and quickly looks like an eye, with the overshooting tops, of the thunderstorms. But look at this loop, you truly think an eye can form, which such moderate to strong shear out of the east, it will take time for Nathan to develop. But sometimes these small systems compared to Pam's large size, there quicker to intensify and create their own environment. it kind of looks like Nathan is trying its best to create its own environment, and if that happens, this one could really surprise us.






A microwave pass from just over an hour ago shows a partial eyewall.

Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A microwave pass from just over an hour ago shows a partial eyewall.




But with all that shear, I think it will take time, but like I said these system can surprise us. And you can clearly see the eastern side completely opened due to the easterly shear. That's why it hasn't closed it off.
From NPR this morning, via NPR's South American correspondent Lourdes Garcia-Navarro:

Sao Paulo's Drought Pits Water Prospectors Against Wildcatters

Includes: Clandestine wells, potential environmental contamination, and water refugees...
Quoting Huracan94:

Have the models ever been so persistent in forecasting a sub-900 mb storm before? It's very unsettling...
I don't recall any model forecast a sub 900 number as far out as the GFS has done it this time. It appears that most of this is coming from the HWRF. The reason why models don't generally run a storm with such low pressure is that it takes the storm being fully formed and mature before those numbers start to make sense. The HWRF is seeing something that none of the other models do. Outliers are called that for a reason. I doubt this will turn out to be a sub 900 storm. More like 930, which is still a serious storm, just not a record breaker.
Quoting 882MB:


That's the same thing I did and you can clearly see the center taking a jog westwards. And cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, can make jogs anywhere, especially when they are intensifying, and moving slowly. Its part of there intensification progress and eye consolidation.

You must have smaller fingers than I do. :-) I don't see any kind of jog nor any southward movement. At least for the time period shown in that loop, it appears to be close to stationary.
My epac forecast
16-20 storms
7-11 hurricanes
3-7 major hurricanes
Quoting 70. 882MB:



But with all that shear, I think it will take time, but like I said these system can surprise us. And you can clearly see the eastern side completely opened due to the easterly shear. That's why it hasn't closed it off.

No disagreements from me, just making an observation. :)
Quoting 73. sar2401:

You must have smaller fingers than I do. :-) I don't see any kind of jog nor any southward movement. At least for the time period shown in that loop, it appears to be close to stationary.


I think she's just consolidating her eye, erratic movement while she's stationary like your saying.
Quoting 75. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No disagreements from me, just making an observation. :)


That's what we all do my friend. ;)
Cyclone Pam
Quoting 72. sar2401:

I don't recall any model forecast a sub 900 number as far out as the GFS has done it this time. It appears that most of this is coming from the HWRF. The reason why models don't generally run a storm with such low pressure is that it takes the storm being fully formed and mature before those numbers start to make sense. The HWRF is seeing something that none of the other models do. Outliers are called that for a reason. I doubt this will turn out to be a sub 900 storm. More like 930, which is still a serious storm, just not a record breaker.

Yeah, I suppose that makes sense. Regardless, Pam still has a very good shot at reaching a cat4-5 though, so it doesn't matter so much whether it hits sub-900mb or not, anybody in the path of this beast needs to be alert and ready to leave when the time comes.
Quoting 74. Andrebrooks:
My epac forecast
16-20 storms
7-11 hurricanes
3-7 major hurricanes


Yeah E-Pac is going to be on fire. June/July models have Nino 1&2 sky high.
RECORD AMO LEVELS DURING RECENT EXTREME WARM AND COLD
PERIODS

1900-1926 COOL PERIODS [AMO NEGATIVE]
Lowest global temperature anomalies ever especially 1902-1913

1904 -0.345[ 4th lowest ever
1913 -0 .386[ 2ND lowest ever]
1920 -0.330[6th lowest ever


1926-1944 WARM PERIOD [AMO POSITIVE]
[Last global warming period prior to the 1994-2008 warming, the period of the 1930’s
drought & dust bowl]

1944 0.360 2nd warmest]
1937 0.304 6th warmest ever]


1964-1976 COOL PERIOD [AMO NEGATIVE]
[Latest cool phase post early 1900’s especially 1964-1976]

1974- 0.405[lowest ever]
1976-0.349 [ 3rd lowest ever]
1972 –0.338[ 5th lowest]


1994 -2008 WARM PERIOD [AMO POSITIVE]
[Latest global warming period]

1998 0.402[highest ever]
2005 0.326[3rd highest]
2006 0.306[ 4th highest
2003 0.266[8th highest]
2004 0.240[10th highest

YEARS WITH THE WARMEST SINGLE MONTH AMO
1878 0.636
1937 0.622
1998 0.562 WARMEST YEAR EVER
2003 0 .504 YEAR OF EUROPEAN HEAT SPELL
2005 0.503 SECOND WARMEST YEAR

YEARS WITH THE COLDEST SINGLE MONTH AMO
1913 -0.563 10 Th COLDEST YEAR GLOBAL
1974 -0.495 2ND COLDEST YEAR IN LAST 30 YEARS
1904 -0.474 4TH COLDEST YEAR GLOBAL
1976 -0.464 COLDEST YEAR IN LAST 30 YEARS
1972 -0..460 COLDEST YEAR IN CANADA 1948-2008

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/amoarticlel.pdf
Quoting 65. Huracan94:


Have the models ever been so persistent in forecasting a sub-900 mb storm before? It's very unsettling...

Good evening. After many hours with problems accessing WU from Germany business seems to get normal again :-)
Concerning the outlandish forecasts of lowest pressure with Pam from some models, our doc thankfully has addressed this problem in his entry (guess this part is from Dr. Masters):

"Pam has generated quite a bit of hype over the past few days, thanks to eye-popping model projections by the GFS and European models which show the cyclone intensifying into a Category 5 monster with a central pressure less than 880 mb by late this week. If this forecast verifies, it would make Pam one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded, world-wide. However, these models are not known for making reliable intensity forecasts, and are generally disregarded by NHC for intensity forecasts in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. "
Quoting Huracan94:

Yeah, I suppose that makes sense. Regardless, Pam still has a very good shot at reaching a cat4-5 though, so it doesn't matter so much whether it hits sub-900mb or not, anybody in the path of this beast needs to be alert and ready to leave when the time comes.
I'm not sure you understand what the options are in Vanuatu. These are just tiny islands in the South Pacific. There's no place to leave to. The natives have had cyclones hit before. If it gets bad enough, they will head for the hills, and every island there has high ground. Due to the beach profiles, storm surge is generally not a big problem. The one thing the natives need to do is to stay off the water. Most of the people killed in these cyclones are out on the water fishing or going to other islands to trade. Pam is a slow mover, and this storm is not going to sneak up on the population. It's just a matter of battening down the hatches until Pam passes.
If indeed we have entered a cold phase of the AMO I don't think 1997 is a good analog and even 2002 might not be one either. Something along the lines of 1965, 1968, 1972, or 1973 might be more reasonable.
Quoting 71. LAbonbon:

From NPR this morning, via NPR's South American correspondent Lourdes Garcia-Navarro:

Sao Paulo's Drought Pits Water Prospectors Against Wildcatters

Includes: Clandestine wells, potential environmental contamination, and water refugees...

Hi Bonnie, I've checked the situation in Sao Paulo today. What I've found: Sao Paulo thankfully gets a lot of rain right now which even causes (severe) flooding. Here one of many videos:



According to the following article, already in February precipitation in this area has been above normal. But human foolishness prevents a fruitful usage of the water:

Drought in Sao Paulo
The Economist, Mar 9th 2015, 19:40 by THE DATA TEAM
FEBRUARY 2015 was the wettest month in the region around Sao Paulo since 1995, with rainfall 36% above the historical average. But the water emergency in South America's biggest metropolis is not over. Because of last year's record drought, water levels in the Cantareira system of reservoirs - which normally supplies nearly half of the area's 20m residents - had sunk to just 5% of capacity. On March 9th they were back up to 12.9%, thanks to the downpours and to a raft of emergency measures, including fines to punish overuse. The government had foolishly put these off until after state and federal elections in October 2014. But the good news ends there. Because of deforestation, rainwater once captured by trees and funnelled into reservoirs turns into violent torrents which bypass them and escape downstream, and not necessarily where you want them to go. As a result, despite above-average rainfall, inflows into the system were below February's long-term mean. Some 30,000 trees need to be planted to undo the damage, experts reckon. Even if heavy rains continue until the end of the wet season in May (and consumers do not go back to their wasteful habits), Cantareira would enter the dry southern winter just quarter-full, according to Brazil's disaster-monitoring centre, down from 31% last year. Sao Paulo is not home and wet just yet.


I hope the recent downpours will ease the dire situation nevertheless! Maybe our Pablo from Brazil has more on this?
Quoting 39. Neapolitan:

As noted previously here and elsewhere, every single weather event happening nowadays is occurring in an atmosphere markedly different than that experienced a decade ago (and two decades ago, and three decades ago, and so on). That doesn't mean every weather event we're now experiencing can be attributed to climate change, of course, nor that those events were made worse by it. In fact, only a few events have been positively tied directly to it. But it *does* mean that every one of those weather events is affected by the atmospheric changes in ways either large, small, or both. It's no longer enough to simply say, "A stubborn upper-level trough over Hudson Bay has kept northwest flow dominant across the eastern half of the country, shunting potentially unstable air masses well out to sea before they have a chance to generate thunderstorms," then call it a day; you also need to ask what has made that trough so stubborn and persistent as of late. Is it, as Dr. Jennifer Francis suggests, the loss of Arctic sea ice causing odd perturbations in the jet stream? is it something else? The jury is still out on such questions. But we *do* know this much: things don't just change on their own; something provides the impetus. And, at least at the moment, that impetus appears to bet he four million tons of heat-trapping carbon we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day.

(FWIW, Dr. Gray is on record as disagreeing with mainstream scientists that the climate is actually changing all that much, though one has to wonder how he feels about his 2006 proclamation that warming had stopped and the planet would enter a long cooling phase by 2009 or so. In short, while Dr. Gray is exceptionally knowledgeable about tropical meteorology, his climate science bona fides are practically non-existent, and his credibility in that area has been severely tarnished by his paid speaking engagements in front of fossil-fuel groups. IOW: caveat emptor.)
Good post...I read a lot about the core samples and glacier melt, and whats happening at the Polar Regions...The fact that humans have altered the atmosphere is here and provable. An exact amount or figure has not been reached due to the extreme complexity of how the Earth, oceans ,and atmosphere interact. There even may be space issues to consider. There is no doubt the world climate is warming , and unbelievably, some still argue that point ( just to argue most of the time ) the rest either misunderstand the data , or read some false report. When someone says that none of the other countries are making an effort or leaning away from fossil fuels is just wrong , and untrue. Someone else said it is to late to stop whats happened with Earths climate. It does not take a lot of understanding to realize what we as a nation, and other countries actually can do to at least improve the atmosphere , instead of polluting it. This goes for land areas as well. Making efforts for a clean environment, and better conditions can have a beneficial impact on our nations infrastructure. and is within our capacity. Realizing the U.S. and other countries are recovering from an economic depression , the ability to make rapid advances with alternative and renewable energy is not probable at this time, but if it could provide many jobs, it may get things moving in a positive direction..jmo
I know it's still early, but do anyone of you have any predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season, as well as analog years, numbers, and the strength of enso? Just curious, thanks.
Quoting 64. sar2401:

Other than having my sinus cavities trying to peel the front of my face off, I'm doing fine, thanks. My high was 86, which is the highest temperature I've had since October. Unfortunately, the dry air over east Alabama continues to shred the stream of moisture being pulled into the state. The only places getting rain are in far north Alabama. Things are starting to look a little hopeless for me to get any substantial rain. This thing we have now isn't going to make it over here before it's completely dried out. My only chance is to get a low Thursday on the stalled boundary. So far, this has not played out like the models suggested it would, but I hope a low moving NE will still do the trick.


I'm actually forecasting for KMGM the next two weeks starting today. I had 80 degrees as the high for that city, but ended up busting by nearly 5 degrees thanks to lack of clouds. I'm going for high of 79 and low of 63 for tomorrow so fingers crossed for me!
Quoting 85. barbamz:


Hi Bonnie, I've checked the situation in Sao Paulo today. What I've found: Sao Paulo thankfully gets a lot of rain right now which even causes (severe) flooding. Here one of many videos:



According to the following article, already in February precipitation in this area has been above normal. But human foolishness prevents a fruitful usage of the water:

Drought in Sao Paulo
The Economist, Mar 9th 2015, 19:40 by THE DATA TEAM
FEBRUARY 2015 was the wettest month in the region around Sao Paulo since 1995, with rainfall 36% above the historical average. But the water emergency in South America's biggest metropolis is not over. Because of last year's record drought, water levels in the Cantareira system of reservoirs - which normally supplies nearly half of the area's 20m residents - had sunk to just 5% of capacity. On March 9th they were back up to 12.9%, thanks to the downpours and to a raft of emergency measures, including fines to punish overuse. The government had foolishly put these off until after state and federal elections in October 2014. But the good news ends there. Because of deforestation, rainwater once captured by trees and funnelled into reservoirs turns into violent torrents which bypass them and escape downstream, and not necessarily where you want them to go. As a result, despite above-average rainfall, inflows into the system were below February's long-term mean. Some 30,000 trees need to be planted to undo the damage, experts reckon. Even if heavy rains continue until the end of the wet season in May (and consumers do not go back to their wasteful habits), Cantareira would enter the dry southern winter just quarter-full, according to Brazil's disaster-monitoring centre, down from 31% last year. Sao Paulo is not home and wet just yet.


I hope the recent downpours will ease the dire situation nevertheless! Maybe our Pablo from Brazil has more on this?



Well, yes eased, but very little. The drought is far from over, as well as California. It's raining a lot, but only in the capital of the state of São Paulo. The city has no structure to support heavy rainfall in a short period of time, so all this chaotic scene you saw in the video. The system "Cantareira" cited at the end of the video, is with 17% of its total capacity, is negative because it is using since May 2014 the so-called "dead volume" that is below ground, is a large pool of water that is there to cases like now. Only this is the first time we used this dead volume, there has never been a drought like this. The month of March is the month that ends the rainy season in the region of São Paulo. The months of April to September are very dry in the city, especially in June and July. Last year at this time of year, the Cantareira system was approximately 20% of the working volume, which is the volume above the ground, on 13 July this review volume dried up, was when he began to use the dead volume, so the amount water in the reservoir was negative. Framework that worsened in October 2014 because the dead volume dried and used a new dead volume, the second dimension, to meet the need of the population. After the formation of BAPO here in Brazil, it began to rain heavily in the region of São Paulo, it gave a relief, so that the second dimension of the dead volume was paid, yet the level remains below 0, negated. If you take into account that the reservoir level fell from 20% to 0% in just four months, what do you think will happen now that the volume is 17% ?! See? Today television news said it will take between 3 to 5 years for the Cantareira system back to normal.
Quoting 87. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I know it's still early, but do anyone of you have any predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season, as well as analog years, numbers, and the strength of enso? Just curious, thanks.
Using the avg. of the 4 years I used as analogs in post #84 I came up with:
7.25 TS, 3.75 H, 0.5 MH. Rounding those values yields: 7 TS, 4 H, 1 MH.
Quoting 87. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I know it's still early, but do anyone of you have any predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season, as well as analog years, numbers, and the strength of enso? Just curious, thanks.

Typically, most people do predictions in late-April or early-May once we get into more reliable time-frame from climate models and a better reading of ocean oscillations (especially ENSO, PDO, and AMO) before making final decision on hurricane outlook. Things can change rather rapidly over the next few weeks as we get closer to the beginning of hurricane season, so it's better to wait as close as possible for making seasonal forecast. Personally, I believe hurricane outlooks are crapshoot and I'm a big fan of "it only takes one" statements echoed by numerous of forecasters.
Quoting 88. Bluestorm5:



I'm actually forecasting for KMGM the next two weeks starting today. I had 80 degrees as the high for that city, but ended up busting by nearly 5 degrees thanks to lack of clouds. I'm going for high of 79 and low of 63 for tomorrow so fingers crossed for me!
I went with 0.12" for the precip. thinking that line of showers and storms would advance east, 78 for the High and 61 for the low. Because Montgomery, AL is far enough away from the coastline the South winds allowed for inland locations to heat up this time of the year, especially under fair conditions.
Quoting 89. pablosyn:



Well, yes eased, but very little. The drought is far from over, as well as California. It's raining a lot, but only in the capital of the state of São Paulo. The city has no structure to support heavy rainfall in a short period of time, so all this chaotic scene you saw in the video. ... [snip]


Thank you very much for explaining, Pablo! I see Sao Paulo is the modern Tantalus:
Tantalus (Ancient Greek: Τάνταλος, Tántalos) was a Greek mythological figure, most famous for his eternal punishment in Tartarus. He was made to stand in a pool of water beneath a fruit tree with low branches, with the fruit ever eluding his grasp, and the water always receding before he could take a drink.
Source wiki.
Pam's eye continues the clear out and become better defined.

it looks as if nathan just got swatted by pams outflow
Quoting 92. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I went with 0.12" for the precip. thinking that line of showers and storms would advance east, 78 for the High and 61 for the low. Because Montgomery, AL is far enough away from the coastline the South winds allowed for inland locations to heat up this time of the year, especially under fair conditions.


Only went 0.05 for precipitation so I don't get hurt when MGM get nothing yet again. How are you doing so far in WxChallenge? I'm ranked #51 out of 2,000 (#4 for Category 4) in the country entering this city :)
18P Cyclone Nathan off the Northeast shore of Australia.
The GFS and other models are highlighting significant blocking across the Arctic as we head toward late March, with an active southern stream to boot. I wouldn't put away the snow shovels and coats yet..

Quoting 98. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS and other models are highlighting significant blocking across the Arctic as we head toward late March, with an active southern stream to boot. I wouldn't put away the snow shovels and coats yet..


Yep. It is possible that will amplify further due the polar vortex collapsing , ( which it does every year until fall ) or even a final warming event. The northern hemisphere vortex breakup in the lower stratosphere usually occurs late in March or early in April. However, the breakup can occur as early as February or as late as early May. This link explains in detail how it occurs.....Link
In other news the PDO Febuary data is at +2.30 still very positive for a third month in a row.
How goes your studies bluestorm5? Still going for a career as a Met?

I have a feeling this won't be a very active hurricane season in terms of the number of storms. But of course it is too early to tell.
Made it to 83.3 here today..


I don't think we made it to 20F today Ped. Started out sub zero.

Hey BB -- Nice articles as always. Hard to read them all.
Quoting 1. Gearsts:

Quoting 353. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's easy because it's not in the Atlantic basin.
Well with a possible moderate El nino later this year,cold AMO and low instability we better get used to watching other oceans for Tropical cyclones like the Epac for the summer.


East Pacific is boring... I don't know why lol...

102. BaltimoreBrian
2:08 AM GMT on March 11, 2015

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Scientists find that zebrafish exposed to hormone-disrupting chemical pollution produce abnormal numbers of male offspring, especially in increasingly warmer water.

Thats no good. Too many guy fishes and too few girl fishes will eventually mean no fishes.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah E-Pac is going to be on fire. June/July models have Nino 1&2 sky high.


And you believe models that far out? Take 'em with a grain of salt.
Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

Don't normally look at the SAL charts for the Atlantic this time of the year (vs. during hurricane season) but looking at all that dry dusty air around Florida and Caribbean made me take a look; wow...............Might explain some of the really pretty pink sunsets I have seen in Tallahassee the last few days.






The sky has been very dusty past few days... weeks...

IS IT ME? OR.... THE SAL is STRONGER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR??

Where is our beautiful blue sky? Is it another effect of EL NINO? ... or just Climate change??
Quoting 106. hydrus:


102. BaltimoreBrian
2:08 AM GMT on March 11, 2015

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Scientists find that zebrafish exposed to hormone-disrupting chemical pollution produce abnormal numbers of male offspring, especially in increasingly warmer water.

Thats no good. Too many guy fishes and too few girl fishes will eventually mean no fishes.


I thought there was always more fish in the sea? Hmmm. Gotta rewrite that dating euphemism is this turns out to be true.
110. txjac
@BaltimoreBrian

First off ...the kittie pic is just over the top cute.
Found one for your collection:

Link

Between the Manhattan Bridge and Montgomery Street, deployable walls are attached to the underside of the FDR DriveProtecting Manhattan from another Hurricane Sandy: Stunning plans revealed for the Dryline %u2013 10 miles of waterfront park that will disguise crucial flood defences

Quoting 84. GTstormChaserCaleb:

If indeed we have entered a cold phase of the AMO I don't think 1997 is a good analog and even 2002 might not be one either. Something along the lines of 1965, 1968, 1972, or 1973 might be more reasonable.

I doubt the active period has ended. Yes it is debatable, but there's no way of knowing if we're going into the weaker phase of the AMO based on two inactive hurricane seasons with weaker AMO present. This season and next season will bring the biggest indication of whether or not we're seeing a transition in the AMO. Until further evidence is provided that the AMO has fallen into a consistently negative phase (which we are currently in a weak positive state as of February) then we will have no way of knowing if these past seasons were just a lull in the active period or rather a much larger scale change in the phase of the AMO.
2015 has recorded an AMO Index of 0.012 for January and 0.016 for February, which is actually more positive than it was last year. (Last year the AMO index was -0.042 for January and -0.023 for February.)
NOAA Monthly AMO Index

Although we don't have much data on the overall length of these phases, based on what has been observed previously it seems reasonable to believe that we still have a decade or so left in this positive phase of the AMO. There will always be lulls during active periods, it's just about being patient until it can be proven whether or not the lull is significant or insignificant to the overall climate system shifts.
Quoting 104. Dakster:

I don't think we made it to 20F today Ped. Started out sub zero.

Hey BB -- Nice articles as always. Hard to read them all.

I have the same problem; I try to pick out the ones that grab my interest straight away...but when I'm in a reading mood I just head over to his blog, and scroll down...there's enough reading material there to never run out :)

Brian - "Finding solutions for a fracking wastewater problem" - any idea why there's no mention of NORM in this article? It's odd...sometimes pieces covering fracking and waste products will discuss it, and other times it's not even mentioned. CSM does have that little prompt of 'what'd we miss?', so this time I dropped a line.
I think Mother Nature is punching the Strong El-Nino ticket this year. So many things in the atmosphere ongoing presently that we haven't experienced since March 1997 which lead to a Super El-Nino.


Eric Blake retweeted

Bob Henson@bhensonweather 5h 5 hours ago

Pacific Decadal Oscillation does it again: 2.30 is highest Feb PDO in 115-yr record, 3rd record month in a row
Taz after reading that EQ map from BB post... Are you planning on moving up your move to Florida? You know before the water in CA runs out.
Well we don't have long to wait for hurricane season, since CSU and TSR release theirs in less than one month, around my 14th birthday.
Quoting 111. TylerStanfield:


I doubt the active period has ended. Yes, it is debatable, but there's no way of knowing if we're going into the weaker phase of the AMO based on two inactive hurricane seasons with weaker AMO present. This season and next season will bring the biggest indication of whether or not we're seeing a transition in the AMO. Until further evidence is provided that the AMO has fallen into a consistently negative phase (which we are currently in a weak positive state as of February) then we will have no way of knowing if these past seasons were just a lull in the active period or rather a much larger scale change in the phase of the AMO.
2015 has recorded an AMO Index of 0.012 for January and 0.016 for February, which is actually more positive than it was last year.
NOAA Monthly AMO Index

Although we don't have much data on the overall length of these phases, based on what has been observed previously it seems reasonable to believe that we still have a decade or so left in this positive phase of the AMO. There will always be lulls during active periods, it's just about being patient until it can be proven whether or not the lull is significant or insignificant to the overall climate system shifts.
I agree. There will be another burst of high activity in the Atlantic Basin before the shift to slower hurricane seasons. Yes, there has been a lull in activity for the past few years, but it will pick up, and stay up before ultimately being reduced to 8 to 10 named storms a season.
Quoting Dakster:
Taz after reading that EQ map from BB post... Are you planning on moving up your move to Florida? You know before the water in CA runs out.





olny if CA Drought last other 5 years if it dos then am out of here FL the N states are this way too cold for me i like nic and warm but not hot
Latest CFSv2 from Weatherbell brings Nino 3.4 to 2.2C in the Fall. Just crazy figures being put out by so many models this month.
Oh god!
Lightning beginning to light up the western sky. Couple of flashes just in the last few minutes. A nice preview to summer.

122. vis0
FIRST BE ALERT AS TO ANY WATCHES & WARNINGS

Think i'm lying of a weather influencing device i created then move on to the next comment as you'll consider the following words crazy & a waste of your time, not being mean just saving you from reading something you prefer not to be true, thank you.

Left cmmnt on my ml-d reset PAGE, ml-d might start resetting Wed AM, plus uploading 4 VIDs showing as to my statement how the ml-d influence not just weather within its AOI but just outside its AOIs due to LOW/FRONT interacting over ml-d inner most MAX area therefore the NW of USofA towards Ca. should received more pecip, S. America's NE coastline & LOW almost trying to form in ATL basin but physics as h2o to cool should hinder warm core formations. Now to the opposite side of world. My worry is if i reset the ml-d before Cyclone Pam flow is naturally interrupted by anti-cyclonic interference (land,drier air etc) -image host- The Reply H or L do not form exactly where i placed the H's & L's but within that outer bounder. BTW i've stated this opposite side of world ml-d influence since the 1970s and on WxU since 2006, so if its new to you, sorry. Pam can reach unheard of strength remember at the present setting ant LOW the ml-d influences via its almost 2 times the norm settings means Pam can reach 2 times what science thinks is MAX for a Hurricane/Cyclone as in on that side of the world if you look at this crappy graphics you'll notice ml-d setting act in an opposing manner as to it settings, IN PART as to why droughts have risen in frequency since 2009/10  in Australia and TS form in areas around that ml-d opposite world AOI when the usually don't or are weaker. notice where in that opposite ml-d area its not what i call reply-HIGHs WxU readers know as RRRs but Reply-LOWS or TT?Ts (SIT DOWN Patrap its not Mardi Gra)Tenacious Troughs...Too (Thereafter for redux). If i were to start resetting all 3 ml-d settings now Pam would poof...no British citizens, it means Pam would breakdown 2 times faster than expected. IF just that spider web strand falls on the ml-d that only affects 1 setting (read my blogbyte to understand and/or go crazy) so Cyclone Pam would only poof 33% of the aforementioned 2 times.

FIRST BE ALERT AS TO ANY WATCHES & WARNINGS
Quoting 120. Gearsts:

Oh god!

Damn that looks awful..It might be wrong...i hope
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting 87. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I know it's still early, but do anyone of you have any predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season, as well as analog years, numbers, and the strength of enso? Just curious, thanks.



STOP ASKING THE SAME STUFF ALL READY YOUR NOTHING BUT A PEST
I hope I'm not.
Quoting 101. Dakster:

How goes your studies bluestorm5? Still going for a career as a Met?

I have a feeling this won't be a very active hurricane season in terms of the number of storms. But of course it is too early to tell.


Yes sir! I'm doing quite well at UNC Asheville with my studies and I got plans to do an internship in summer of 2016 with graduation set for May of 2017 with plans to continue my studies at a graduate school.
Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 from Weatherbell brings Nino 3.4 to 2.2C in the Fall. Just crazy figures being put out by so many models this month.


I mean, we were saying exactly the same thing at this time last year. Let's wait a couple of months before seeing whether or not we can get a super El Nino status. If we can barely get past 72 hours right, how the heck can we forecast several months in advance :)
Quoting 108. CaribBoy:


The sky has been very dusty past few days... weeks...

IS IT ME? OR.... THE SAL is STRONGER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR??

Where is our beautiful blue sky? Is it another effect of EL NINO? ... or just Climate change??


This because of El-Nino as easterly trades have increased in recent weeks. Ground work is being laid for a boring season.

Just the look of this image is horrible for our basin.

Quoting 124. Andrebrooks:

I hope I'm not.

No, Andre, you're not. And tigger isn't either - he's just enthusiastic.
Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 from Weatherbell brings Nino 3.4 to 2.2C in the Fall. Just crazy figures being put out by so many models this month.


Caribbean and MDR = Desert (drought) in 2015 :-(
Quoting LAbonbon:

No, Andre, you're not. And tigger isn't either - he's just enthusiastic.
Thanks buddy, man we are getting pounded by rain the next few days.
Quoting 127. StormTrackerScott:



This becaus of El-Nino as easterly trades have increased in recent weeks. Ground work is being laid for a boring season.

Just the look of this image is horrible for our basin.




Yes the trade winds have been quite strong as well... (and the sea not flat at all)

To sum up our weather lately : dusty cloudy skies, windy, with choppy sea, a few showers from time to time.



Quoting 126. Bluestorm5:


I mean, we were saying exactly the same thing at this time last year. Let's wait a couple of months before seeing whether or not we can get a super El Nino status. If we can barely get past 72 hours right, how the heck can we forecast several months in advance :)


Models were no where near this bullish last year. Here are some of the Tweets coming across below.


Michael Ventrice retweeted

forecastguy@forecastguy · 11h 11 hours ago

@EricBlake12 @RyanMaue Closest I could find synoptically is late March of 1997: #Nino #OhShit



Michael Ventrice retweeted

WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy · Mar 9

The strongest ever observed March RMM Phase 7 amplitude of 3.85 was back in 1997. That # could be rivaled next week.



Michael Ventrice retweeted

WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy · Mar 9

Another fascinating tidbit- the AO index hit 3 sigma, the 2nd highest March value dating back to 1948. #1 was in 1997



Eric Blake@EricBlake12 · Mar 9

Can't believe Twitter isn't buzzing at all about the March ECMWF monthly fcsts- even more anomalous than 1 y ago leading to super Nino hype
WOW 165 mph/145 knots/270 km/h! Pam will be stronger than Ului (2010)

Quoting Tazmanian:





olny if CA Drought last other 5 years if it dos then am out of here FL the N states are this way too cold for me i like nic and warm but not hot


We get awesome thunderstorms in the afternoon in summer that you might like here in FL.
Quoting 127. StormTrackerScott:



This becaus of El-Nino as easterly trades have increased in recent weeks. Ground work is being laid for a boring season.

Just the look of this image is horrible for our basin.


Its March-10th for pete sake. Actually , the basin is not in that bad of shape, especially close to home where the storms have a better chance of nailing us. Storms dont even start to develop out in the far Atlantic until mid or late August, what is there now could change dramatically in the next 6 months. And to throw more gas on the fire , the patterns have been so far from what is considered normal, I wouldnt be surprised if a strong Nino did develop , and not even have an effect on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. When Nino is in full swing , the shear out in the MDR will " usually " rip even the strongest T waves to zero.
Quoting 130. Andrebrooks:

Thanks buddy, man we are getting pounded by rain the next few days.

SE & E Texas got some pretty good totals, over a wide area, too. So far in our neck of the woods it looks like Plaquemine, St. Bernard & SE MS got under some training rain. AL too, looks like.

I'm somewhere in the 1-1.5 in range (no rain gauge), but the Baton Rouge airport is reporting 0.25 in...now that's a dry slot.
Quoting 135. hydrus:
Its March-10th for pete sake. Actually , the basin is not in that bad of shape, especially close to home where the storms have a better chance of nailing us. Storms dont even start to develop out in the far Atlantic until mid or late August, what is there now could change dramatically in the next 6 months. And to throw more gas on the fire , thge patterns have been so far from what is considered normal, I wouldnt be surprised in a strong Nino did develop , and not even have an effect on the Atlantic Hurricane Season.When Nino is in full swing , the shear out in the MDR will " usually " rip even the strongest T waves to zero.


Close to home will have to be watched but I doubt we see the MDR get that active this year as the strong er the El-Nino gets the worse the conditions are across our basin. The pressure pattern on the March update on the Euro ENSO model for the Atlantic is just down right disturbing as all you see is dark reds across the whole basin while the E-Pac is dark blue meaning lots of rising air in that region. I've never seen the Euro go so strong with Nino 3.4 for before and wasn't even this strong last year on this model.
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:



Close to home will have to be watched but I doubt we see the MDR get that active this year as the strong er the El-Nino gets the worse the conditions are acros our basin. The pressure pattern on the March update on the Euro ENSO for the Atlantic is just down right disturbing as all you see is dark reds across the whole basin while the E-Pac is dark blue meaning lots of rising air in that region. I've never seen the Euro go so strong with Nino 3.4 for before wasn't even this strong last year on this model.
The strongest influence I see as of now is the roidal MJO pulse forecast to move rapidly eastward. This may indeed push some of the warm water with it, but at the projected speed, may not be as much of a factor...its wait and see
Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:

Lightning beginning to light up the western sky. Couple of flashes just in the last few minutes. A nice preview to summer.



Yes, thought the same thing today as well with the first temps into the 80's since last year. I guess we have finally gotten a taste of what it has felt like for lucky you down in Central FL much of this winter!
Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:



Models were no where near this bullish last year. Here are some of the Tweets coming across below.


Michael Ventrice retweeted

forecastguy@forecastguy 11h 11 hours ago

@EricBlake12 @RyanMaue Closest I could find synoptically is late March of 1997: #Nino #OhShit



Michael Ventrice retweeted

WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy Mar 9

The strongest ever observed March RMM Phase 7 amplitude of 3.85 was back in 1997. That # could be rivaled next week.



Michael Ventrice retweeted

WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy Mar 9

Another fascinating tidbit- the AO index hit 3 sigma, the 2nd highest March value dating back to 1948. #1 was in 1997



Eric Blake@EricBlake12 Mar 9

Can't believe Twitter isn't buzzing at all about the March ECMWF monthly fcsts- even more anomalous than 1 y ago leading to super Nino hype



Read Eric Blake's tweet again. "Super Nino hype". Just because these people are cherry picking analogs to 1997 doesn't mean super El Nino will occur automatically based off of these past records. I could look at analogs from St. Louis University for a possible tornado outbreak around April 25-30 in state of Alabama and get April 27th, 2011 outbreak in my top 10 almost every single time (despite the fact that was once-in-50 years outbreak). This is why I'm not a big fan of doing meteorology based on analogs and past records, although I supposed it's not wise of me to shoot down the idea of "super" El Nino completely yet. However, just because models are showing center line of 2.0 C in El Nino regions doesn't mean you can ignore spread of models anywhere from 0.0 C to 2.5 C. We could just as easily repeat last year's fiasco of El Nino failing to develops complete or actually get a decent, although not super, event that'll "clean" up Atlantic and get it ready for 2016 season.
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:

I think Mother Nature is punching the Strong El-Nino ticket this year. So many things in the atmosphere ongoing presently that we haven't experienced since March 1997 which lead to a Super El-Nino.


Eric Blake retweeted

Bob Henson@bhensonweather %uFFFD 5h 5 hours ago

Pacific Decadal Oscillation does it again: 2.30 is highest Feb PDO in 115-yr record, 3rd record month in a row


A year and a half and running :D
This subsurface warm pool, though it is strengthening, likely will never reach the intensity of last year's warm pool. The only bet you have of seeing this Super El Nino will come over the early summer when this warm pool surfaces, this time likely more effective than last year, which should bring us into a moderate or perhaps at the very most a strong event, but there will be nothing to back it up afterwards. This El Nino is still in a very fragile state and it will take time to really truly effect global climate patterns. The current MJO pulse is one of the strongest ever recorded over the western pacific, although it should weaken as it crosses the Pacific. With this it should help promote prevalent westerly winds and usher in more warming of the eastern ENSO regions which are currently in a cool neutral or La Nina state based off of daily and weekly indices. Nonetheless, you have got an El Nino, how strong we get into the event is yet to be seen. But we're dealing with a different animal than that of 1997, though similar, an event closer to 2006, 2009, and 2014 (June) is more along the lines of what is likely to occur over the summer months and into fall. Yes, climate models say otherwise but they should be taken lightly during these times because of the decreased skill brought by the "spring barrier" of ENSO transition. We've seen how these climate models have done in the face of similar conditions and just saying that this year is different doesn't give the climate models an excuse.
AMO has been running more positive than last year, 2009 and 1997. We'll see what this hurricane season has for us, but I'm sticking to my guns with a forecast of 9 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Quoting 138. hydrus:
The strongest influence I see as of now is the roidal MJO pulse forecast to move rapidly eastward. This may indeed push some of the warm water with it, but at the projected speed, may not be as much of a factor...its wait and see


I agree we saw a strong MJO last year this same time although not as strong as the one currently and couldn't deliver. If I live in California though I would start praying that this MJO handles its business because if not then nuetral conditions will come this Fall but I think that scenario is extremely unlikely. There are just so many things right now in favor of strong El-nino infact things we haven't seen in the atmosphere since 1997. If you guys remember I kept saying since last November that it appeared the CFSv2 might be onto something.
So Verizon FIOS has dropped The Weather Channel....
Quoting 140. Bluestorm5:



Read Eric Blake's tweet again. "Super Nino hype". Just because these people are cherry picking analogs to 1997 doesn't mean super El Nino will occur automatically based off of these past records. I could look at analogs from St. Louis University for a tornado outbreak for state of Alabama around April 25-30 and get April 27th, 2011 outbreak in my top 10 almost every single time. This is why I'm not a big fan of doing meteorology based on analogs and past records, although I supposed it's not wise of me to shoot down the idea of "super" El Nino completely yet. Also, just because models are showing center line of 2.0+ C in El Nino regions doesn't mean you can ignore spread of models anywhere from 0.0 C to 2.5 C. We could just as easily repeat last year's fiasco of El Nino failing to develops complete or actually get a decent, although not super, event that'll "clean" up Atlantic and get it ready for 2016 season.
Exactly..Patterns are changing in a way where the analogs and past records provide little or no help to a forecast.
Quoting 141. TylerStanfield:

Two and a half years and running :D
This subsurface warm pool, though it is strengthening, likely will never reach the intensity of last year's warm pool. The only bet you have of seeing this Super El Nino will come over the early summer when this warm pool surfaces, this time likely more effective than last year, which should bring us into a moderate or perhaps at the very most a strong event, but there will be nothing to back it up afterwards. This El Nino is still in a very fragile state and it will take time to really truly effect global climate patterns. The current MJO pulse is one of the strongest ever recorded over the western pacific, although it should weaken as it crosses the Pacific. With this it should help promote prevalent westerly winds and usher in more warming of the eastern ENSO regions which are currently in a cool neutral or La Nina state based off of daily and weekly indices. Nonetheless, you have got an El Nino, how strong we get into the event is yet to be seen. But we're dealing with a different animal than that of 1997, though similar, an event closer to 2006, 2009, and 2014 (June) is more along the lines of what is likely to occur over the summer months and into fall. Yes, climate models say otherwise but they should be taken lightly during these times because of the decreased skill brought by the "spring barrier" of ENSO transition. We've seen how these climate models have done in the face of similar conditions and just saying that this year is different doesn't give the climate models an excuse.
AMO has been running more positive than last year, 2009 and 1997. We'll see what this hurricane season has for us, but I'm sticking to my guns with a forecast of 9 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.


My forecast is 9 storms as well most forming close to the US and I suspect 1 major hits the US as well.
Quoting 140. Bluestorm5:


Read Eric Blake's tweet again. "Super Nino hype". Just because these people are cherry picking analogs to 1997 doesn't mean super El Nino will occur automatically based off of these past records. I could look at analogs from St. Louis University for a possible tornado outbreak around April 25-30 in state of Alabama and get April 27th, 2011 outbreak in my top 10 almost every single time (despite the fact that was once-in-50 years outbreak). This is why I'm not a big fan of doing meteorology based on analogs and past records, although I supposed it's not wise of me to shoot down the idea of "super" El Nino completely yet. However, just because models are showing center line of 2.0 C in El Nino regions doesn't mean you can ignore spread of models anywhere from 0.0 C to 2.5 C. We could just as easily repeat last year's fiasco of El Nino failing to develops complete or actually get a decent, although not super, event that'll "clean" up Atlantic and get it ready for 2016 season.


Hey I'm just reposting the Tweets from guys with PHD's relating the pattern to 1997 or should I say current weather pattern. My opinion I think we have a really good shot at strong El-Nino this year could it bust like last year yes but not likely to see that again as many more components of the atmosphere are in place to get us to a strong critieria.
Quoting 144. hydrus:

Exactly..Patterns are changing in a way where the analogs and past records provide little or no help to a forecast.


I think analogs are okay to get into range of numbers and whether or not we could see above/below average in any type of weather (severe, winter, hurricanes, seasonal, etc). However, I'm not a big fan of comparing a date of a specific weather event or a season of them to the exact detail. Just because there's one analog of 1997 in set of 5 to 10 El Nino years or so doesn't mean we'll see a super El Nino automatically.
Quoting 128. LAbonbon:


No, Andre, you're not. And tigger isn't either - he's just enthusiastic.


I prefer to call it hurricane n00biness. Nothing wrong with that, though. :P
Quoting 146. StormTrackerScott:



Hey I'm just reposting the Tweets from guys with PHD's relating the pattern to 1997 or should I say current weather pattern. My opinion I think we have a really good shot at strong El-Nino this year could it bust like last year yes but not likely to see that again as many more components of the atmosphere are in place to get us to a strong critieria.



Fair enough, but don't be disappointed if we don't get a super status yet again this time as well. That 1997 event was incredibly rare, as we're talking about the strongest one in a century worth of records here, but there's no reason to doubt that it could happens again. Also, you'll be amaze how crazy and amazing meteorology can get and it wouldn't surprise me if it'll take much more than year's components to get a "super" status in our future. I think the wise thing to do is to note a small possibility of a "super" status, but also acknowledge the spread of those climate models anywhere from 0.5 C to 2.5 C at the same time. Ensembles are your friend when it come to forecasting an event lasting several months :)
Quoting 135. hydrus:

Its March-10th for pete sake. Actually , the basin is not in that bad of shape, especially close to home where the storms have a better chance of nailing us. Storms dont even start to develop out in the far Atlantic until mid or late August, what is there now could change dramatically in the next 6 months. And to throw more gas on the fire , the patterns have been so far from what is considered normal, I wouldnt be surprised if a strong Nino did develop , and not even have an effect on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. When Nino is in full swing , the shear out in the MDR will " usually " rip even the strongest T waves to zero.


To begin with, I don't understand why people always look at SSTs in the MDR/deep tropics. Sure it helps for raw numbers and hurricane intensity, but it has literally no relevance to anything beyond that. It's possible to have a very active season with many hurricanes and intense hurricanes (2010, for example) and have most of them recurve well east of the US mainland, or even before they reach the Leeward Islands. It's similar to the obsession with the NAO we often see here. No one index, be that sea surface temperature or a synoptic pressure pattern like the NAO, can act as the one single determinant to a hurricane season. In the end, formative location and the timing and position of mid-latitude influences relative to the cyclone's location contributes to where that storm will make landfall.

Personally, if you want a greater likelihood of landfalls, what you want are storms forming south of 20N near the Windward Islands, within the Caribbean, or north of 20N along the coast of Hispaniola and/or the Bahamas. Even the Gulf of Mexico. A storm that forms in the deep tropics will more than likely recurve. Even in 2005 they did.
Quoting 149. Bluestorm5:


Fair enough, but don't be disappointed if we don't get a super status yet again this time as well. That 1997 event was incredibly rare, as we're talking about the strongest one in a century worth of records here, but there's no reason to doubt that it could happens again. Also, you'll be amaze how crazy and amazing meteorology can get and it wouldn't surprise me if it'll take much more than year's components to get a "super" status in our future. I think the wise thing to do is to note a small possibility of a "super" status, but also acknowledge the spread of those climate models anywhere from 0.5 C to 2.5 C at the same time. Ensembles are your friend when it come to forecasting an event lasting several months :)


I didn't say we will make it to Super status my stance so far this whole year has been moderate to strong El-nino. I just posted tweets from guys at WSI/National Hurricane Center comparing these weather patterns to that of march 1997. I never said of oh guys we have a super El-Nino coming. I am saying strong at the most. I just think its interesting seeing these comparisions come out to that of 1997 from guys with a lot more experience than me in the weather field. I'm not disagreeing with you and I think we all saying the samething on here tonight but in different ways. Again i agree with you and Tyler.

Quoting 104. Dakster:

I don't think we made it to 20F today Ped. Started out sub zero.

Hey BB -- Nice articles as always. Hard to read them all.

      Colder than a Witches Ti................. YIKES
Quoting 125. Bluestorm5:



Yes sir! I'm doing quite well at UNC Asheville with my studies and I got plans to do an internship in summer of 2016 with graduation set for May of 2017 with plans to continue my studies at a graduate school.


Glad to hear it. I feel as if we have watched you "grow" up over the years here on Wunderground, honing your Met skills along the way.
Quoting 152. PedleyCA:



Colder than a Witches Ti................. YIKES



LOL Ped... Yes. There is a nip in the air for sure. Still daylight out at almost 8pm and the temp is down to 11F now. Supposed to be another sub zero night and morning.
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 PM CDT on March 10, 2015





Clear


45 F

Clear






Windchill:

41 F



Humidity:
44%


Dew Point:

24 F



Wind:


8 mph

from the

NWPressure:


29.99 in

(Rising)



Visibility:

10.0 miles



UV:
0 out of 16


Pollen:
3.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!


Clouds:


Clear


-


(Above Ground Level)



Elevation:

1624 ftS pring is here....


To the bloggers noticing a westward jog with Pam- I see exactly what you're seeing. Although it is a bit hard to tell due to the lack of an eye, it does appear that Pam is headed due west. This Pam/Nathan/Soon-to-be-Olwyn/ex-haliba/WPAC TD3/Cari combination is unlike anything I've seen recently. Sure, Lam and Marcia were crazy, but this is like a tropical explosion in the southern hemisphere.
Quoting 153. Dakster:



Glad to hear it. I feel as if we have watched you "grow" up over the years here on Wunderground, honing your Met skills along the way.


Thanks, man! You'll be impressed how my skills are going along and I'm not even in advanced classes yet :) I still got a long way to go, though.
Quoting 151. StormTrackerScott:



I didn't say we will make it to Super status my stance so far this whole year has been moderate to strong El-nino. I just posted tweets from guys at WSI/National Hurricane Center comparing these weather patterns to that of march 1997. I never said of oh guys we have a super El-Nino coming. I am saying strong at the most. I just think its interesting seeing these comparisions come out to that of 1997 from guys with a lot more experience than me in the weather field. I'm not disagreeing with you and I think we all saying the samething on here tonight but in different ways. Again i agree with you and Tyler.


Maybe I'm being too harsh on you as usual, Scott. I definitely think those tweets about comparisons are worth mentioning :)
(From Left to Right) 96S, Nathan, Pam, and 97W.
Quoting 156. Stormlover16:

To the bloggers noticing a westward jog with Pam- I see exactly what you're seeing. Although it is a bit hard to tell due to the lack of an eye, it does appear that Pam is headed due west. This Pam/Nathan/Soon-to-be-Olwyn/ex-haliba/WPAC TD3/Cari combination is unlike anything I've seen recently. Sure, Lam and Marcia were crazy, but this is like a tropical explosion in the southern hemisphere.


This is literally akin to their August and September.
Quoting 142. StormTrackerScott:



I agree we saw a strong MJO last year this same time although not as strong as the one currently and couldn't deliever. If I live in California I would start praying that this MJO handles its business because if not then nuetral conditions will come this Fall but I think that scenario is extremely unlikely. There are just so many things right now in favor of strong El-nino infact things we haven't seen in the atmosphere since 1997. If you guys remember I kept saying since last November that it appeared the CFSv2 might be onto something.


I agree that if the atmosphere does respond - it'll be a major El Niño. Plenty of time build intensity.
Quoting 158. Bluestorm5:


Maybe I'm being too harsh on you as usual, Scott. I definitely think those tweets about comparisons are worth mentioning :)


Hey you know I can take it and do so backing my post up with facts to back my claims whether right or wrong. I can swing with the best of them.
Quoting 160. KoritheMan:



This is literally akin to their August and September.

I don't understand exactly what you're saying. In August and September there is no activity in the southern hemisphere. If you are trying to say that this is what the northern hemisphere looks like during August and September, yeah, it is, but I've never seen this burst of activity in the Southern Hemisphere.
Happy Gilmore said it best. "gold jacket green jacket who gives a ****" I say el nino la nina........ what matters in our life time and beyond is sea level rise. there have always been droughts, floods, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, volcanos, and tsunami's in all generations past, present, and will be in the future. However never in modern times or even the past few hundreds of thousands of years has any being on earth had to deal with sea level rise like we are currently. Even a 1% melt in Greenland would cause major problems for all coastal areas. Its very evident. I'm only 29 years old and I remember going to eat in southport, n.c. marina and never having to deal with water during high tide. now during every high tide the entire parking lot floods with 2-3 inches of salt water, and more than 6 inches during a full moon. Even 15 years ago that didn't happen at all. Its estimated that water has rose 2.5 inches in the past 25 years according to water levels in that area. Not saying the ocean has risen that much everywhere, but you cant deny that its obvious within a few years you wont even be able to drive to that marina. I'm sure this is the case in a lot of costal cities and beaches throughout the world. I understand sea level has been steadily rising very slowly but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look out the window to see water in the parking lot where it never used to be, so its indeed rising at a faster rate than it used to.
Over the next week, exceptional westerly winds are expected to persist across the equatorial western and central Pacific, while the preexisting easterly winds across the equatorial eastern Pacific reverse. The net result should be basin-wide warming.

Keep it up Blue... What is your end goal? NWS Met, TV Met, Hurricane Forecaster???

Just curious.
Just wondering..... are there any good websites for looking at the possible storm surge on Vanuatu because the tab crashes every time i look at the WU interactive map on my phone. :/
Quoting 163. Stormlover16:


I don't understand exactly what you're saying. In August and September there is no activity in the southern hemisphere. If you are trying to say that this is what the northern hemisphere looks like during August and September, yeah, it is, but I've never seen this burst of activity in the Southern Hemisphere.


This is the peak of the Southern Hemisphere cyclone season.
Quoting KoritheMan:


To begin with, I don't understand why people always look at SSTs in the MDR/deep tropics. Sure it helps for raw numbers and hurricane intensity, but it has literally no relevance to anything beyond that. It's possible to have a very active season with many hurricanes and intense hurricanes (2010, for example) and have most of them recurve well east of the US mainland, or even before they reach the Leeward Islands. It's similar to the obsession with the NAO we often see here. No one index, be that sea surface temperature or a synoptic pressure pattern like the NAO, can act as the one single determinant to a hurricane season. In the end, formative location and the timing and position of mid-latitude influences relative to the cyclone's location contributes to where that storm will make landfall.

Personally, if you want a greater likelihood of landfalls, what you want are storms forming south of 20N near the Windward Islands, within the Caribbean, or north of 20N along the coast of Hispaniola and/or the Bahamas. Even the Gulf of Mexico. A storm that forms in the deep tropics will more than likely recurve. Even in 2005 they did.
And what we really want is the Bermuda High to get back toward Bermuda, not so expansive that it influences weather in the Gulf. The "super-size" Bermuda High causes more shear in the Atlantic and more SAL to get shoved our way. I've never seen an active season when the Bermuda High just sits there stagnant for months on end.
Quoting 125. Bluestorm5:



Yes sir! I'm doing quite well at UNC Asheville with my studies and I got plans to do an internship in summer of 2016 with graduation set for May of 2017 with plans to continue my studies at a graduate school.



Good luck! I'm actually a year ahead of you (planning to get an internship this summer and graduating next spring) but i'm going into GIS. The NWS uses it quite a bit though for their digital forecast maps. Perhaps I'll figure out all that teleconnections stuff along the way! XD

Quoting 166. Dakster:

Keep it up Blue... What is your end goal? NWS Met, TV Met, Hurricane Forecaster???

Just curious.


Either become a forecaster for someone or become researcher and teach at a university. I haven't been able to narrow down much, but I do know I won't go after a career at a TV station.
Quoting 169. sar2401:

And what we really want is the Bermuda High to get back toward Bermuda, not so expansive that it influences weather in the Gulf. The "super-size" Bermuda High causes more shear in the Atlantic and more SAL to get shoved our way. I've never seen an active season when the Bermuda High just sits there stagnant for months on end.


Yeah. The Gulf needs to be on the western end of the Bermuda High if we want a good chance of cyclone formation there. The south side isn't terrible either, but that often presents easterly shear and some subsidence. It also usually means that the B/A high is in a position to where only Mexico and/or extreme south Texas gets landfalls.
Quoting 159. Ameister12:

(From Left to Right) 96S, Nathan, Pam, and 97W.




Pam's outflow looks like it's weakening Nathan. I guess i know which one's the more dominant one of the couple lol.
Quoting 171. Bluestorm5:



Either become a forecaster for someone or become researcher and teach at a university. I haven't been able to narrow down much, but I do know I won't go after a career at a TV station.


Keep us informed.... and I hope you figure it out soon. I have a face for radio myself...
Quoting 170. TimTheWxMan:




Good luck! I'm actually a year ahead of you (planning to get an internship this summer and graduating next spring) but i'm going into GIS. The NWS uses it quite a bit though for their digital forecast maps. Perhaps I'll figure out all that teleconnections stuff along the way! XD




I'm ESRI ArcMap/Info trained myself. But I don't use it for weather stuff. Been using it since ver 3.x.

Quoting 171. Bluestorm5:



Either become a forecaster for someone or become researcher and teach at a university. I haven't been able to narrow down much, but I do know I won't go after a career at a TV station.


I'm not the least bit interested in broadcast meteorology. I quickly grew out of that growing up as a teenager.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Just wondering..... are there any good websites for looking at the possible storm surge on Vanuatu because the tab crashes every time i look at the WU interactive map on my phone. :/
This GDACS site is the closest I've come to finding storm surge predictions. The current prediction for March 13 is just 0.1 meter. That seems to be too low from my memory of cyclones and storm surge there but storm surge is rarely a big issue for Vanuatu because of the beach profiles, which rise very abruptly from the deep Pacific and tend to kill surge waves just after they reach the shallower waters.
178. flsky
A GREAT day. Great to see summer-type clouds again (one gets tired of contrail clouds). We're going into my favorite time of year - not for the humidity, but for the crash bang storms. It's one of the reasons I live in ECFL.

Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:

Lightning beginning to light up the western sky. Couple of flashes just in the last few minutes. A nice preview to summer.


Quoting uncwhurricane85:
Happy Gilmore said it best. "gold jacket green jacket who gives a ****" I say el nino la nina........ what matters in our life time and beyond is sea level rise. there have always been droughts, floods, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, volcanos, and tsunami's in all generations past, present, and will be in the future. However never in modern times or even the past few hundreds of thousands of years has any being on earth had to deal with sea level rise like we are currently. Even a 1% melt in Greenland would cause major problems for all coastal areas. Its very evident. I'm only 29 years old and I remember going to eat in southport, n.c. marina and never having to deal with water during high tide. now during every high tide the entire parking lot floods with 2-3 inches of salt water, and more than 6 inches during a full moon. Even 15 years ago that didn't happen at all. Its estimated that water has rose 2.5 inches in the past 25 years according to water levels in that area. Not saying the ocean has risen that much everywhere, but you cant deny that its obvious within a few years you wont even be able to drive to that marina. I'm sure this is the case in a lot of costal cities and beaches throughout the world. I understand sea level has been steadily rising very slowly but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look out the window to see water in the parking lot where it never used to be, so its indeed rising at a faster rate than it used to.
Not saying I don't believe you but, in weather, the worst thing you can trust is your memory. 15 years ago you were 14. I don't know about you but, when I was 14, the last thing I closely examined was water in parking lots. Do you actually live at the beach? How often did you go to this restaurant? I'd go out on the web and look for actual records of sea level rise and then try to correlate them to this parking lot. I'm not saying sea level hasn't risen, but you should notice more than one parking lot to know if your observation is backed up by facts or it just stands out in your mind.
Quoting 175. Dakster:



I'm ESRI ArcMap/Info trained myself. But I don't use it for weather stuff. Been using it since ver 3.x.





It's usually good for temperature, wind, elevation, and precip maps because it's continuous data. I mainly use ArcMap and ERDAS Imagine.
Quoting Dakster:


Keep us informed.... and I hope you figure it out soon. I have a face for radio myself...
We had a couple of experimental dash cams installed in our units that looked at the driver, and the instrument panel as well as over the dash. It was pretty scary looking at yourself backwards driving down the road, not to mention being more cognizant of where you put things like your fingers... :-)
Pam is just about ready to go boom. I'm quite curious to see what I wake up to tomorrow morning.

Quoting 177. sar2401:

This GDACS site is the closest I've come to finding storm surge predictions. The current prediction for March 13 is just 0.1 meter. That seems to be too low from my memory of cyclones and storm surge there but storm surge is rarely a big issue for Vanuatu because of the beach profiles, which rise very abruptly from the deep Pacific and tend to kill surge waves just after they reach the shallower waters.



.1 meter? They have that storm passing a good way to the east. I was wondering about the shoreline. Port Vila seems to be somewhat protected due to Iririki island once the eye passes (whether or not it's a direct hit). When it does, they'll get more of a southwest flow. The Kumul highway immediately along the waterfront at the north end of the bay may get the most surge in that scenario. If we're talking a category 5 it could be decent though i'm thinking maybe 3 m. tops.
Quoting 179. sar2401:

Not saying I don't believe you but, in weather, the worst thing you can trust is your memory. 15 years ago you were 14. I don't know about you but, when I was 14, the last thing I closely examined was water in parking lots. Do you actually live at the beach? How often did you go to this restaurant? I'd go out on the web and look for actual records of sea level rise and then try to correlate them to this parking lot. I'm not saying sea level hasn't risen, but you should notice more than one parking lot to know if your observation is backed up by facts or it just stands out in your mind.



Parts of Port Vila have a higher elevation but the slopes don't look too terribly steep. Port Vila's main concern appears to be the wind at this point.
Quoting 150. KoritheMan:



To begin with, I don't understand why people always look at SSTs in the MDR/deep tropics. Sure it helps for raw numbers and hurricane intensity, but it has literally no relevance to anything beyond that. It's possible to have a very active season with many hurricanes and intense hurricanes (2010, for example) and have most of them recurve well east of the US mainland, or even before they reach the Leeward Islands. It's similar to the obsession with the NAO we often see here. No one index, be that sea surface temperature or a synoptic pressure pattern like the NAO, can act as the one single determinant to a hurricane season. In the end, formative location and the timing and position of mid-latitude influences relative to the cyclone's location contributes to where that storm will make landfall.

Personally, if you want a greater likelihood of landfalls, what you want are storms forming south of 20N near the Windward Islands, within the Caribbean, or north of 20N along the coast of Hispaniola and/or the Bahamas. Even the Gulf of Mexico. A storm that forms in the deep tropics will more than likely recurve. Even in 2005 they did.
Many pluses Kori. Anyone who has been studying tropical weather for a decent amount of time will realize just that. Once a storm is above 25 degrees N and 70 degrees west , it will likely recurve, but not always. I remember tracking Andrew and thinking that he was too far north to hit Florida, and maybe the Carolinas would be a target, but a high pressure cell built in rapidly (very rapidly in fact ) and Andrew literally was steered due west at 25.6 degrees the entire two days. Ya coulda slapped a ruler down and drawn a line from 600 miles east of the Bahamas into South Dade. Andrew was an amazing storm that actually lost its entire low level circulation, only to come back as a monster 5. I heard people writing him of as dissipated...We know the rest.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



.1 meter? They have that storm passing a good way to the east. I was wondering about the shoreline. Port Vila seems to be somewhat protected due to Iririki island once the eye passes (whether or not it's a direct hit). When it does, they'll get more of a southwest flow. The Kumul highway immediately along the waterfront at the north end of the bay may get the most surge in that scenario. If we're talking a category 5 it could be decent though i'm thinking maybe 3 m. tops.
We sailed from Fiji to Vanuatu for some diving in 2001. All I remember from me doing the weather reconnaissance is that Vanuatu doesn't get hit with large storm surges. The big damage there is flash floods from all the denuded hillsides. This will be the most intense storm to hit Vanuatu in modern times so that's why I said 0.1 meter sounded too low. OTOH, I think 3 meters is probably too high. Probably more like a meter, but that really depends on Pam's exact strength and track. Cyclones in that area tend to track east just before they get to Vanuatu's main islands, so Pam could be offshore further than the current forecast calls for. This is yet another case of wait and see.
Quoting 181. sar2401:

We had a couple of experimental dash cams installed in our units that looked at the driver, and the instrument panel as well as over the dash. It was pretty scary looking at yourself backwards driving down the road, not to mention being more cognizant of where you put things like your fingers... :-)


Especially if you have a good looking partner in the seat next to you... And of course for some odd reason, we forget that the back of the station is video taped....

New dash cam will take all the information on the dash and electronically put it on the recording. Cameras are going to be standard issue across the country for PDs soon enough.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Parts of Port Vila have a higher elevation but the slopes don't look too terribly steep. Port Vila's main concern appears to be the wind at this point.
It's not the hills, it's the beach profile. The depth about 300 yards offshore gets down to about 500 feet and goes down from there. There aren't many low elevation beaches there so storm surge only has a very short path to build and then it tends to get beaten down by the steep profile and relatively elevated shorelines. As I said earlier, wind and flash floods will be the main threat.
I was not talking from personal experience Sar... Just some things that have happened to others. Glad you had photo/video backup.

How are things in AL? Hot and steamy yet?

So glad I am in AK.
Another disappointing day at the SAR Ranchette as we got no rain again. locations in far north Alabama got between a half-inch and an inch but from Montgomery east got a few hundredths to nothing. The boundary that was supposed to stay near the coast has now been pushed up into north Alabama, so all the rain has gone there. The current moisture blob is now getting cut off at the Gulf off east LA and is losing its moisture tap. Things aren't looking all that dandy for Thursday and Friday either as another low will travel from TX and then along the same boundary we've seen today. You'd think maybe I'd get a couple tents or something by now but, no, all I get is heat and no clouds. Drat!
Quoting 185. hydrus:

Many pluses Kori. Anyone who has been studying tropical weather for a decent amount of time will realize just that. Once a storm is above 25 degrees N and 70 degrees west , it will likely recurve, but not always. I remember tracking Andrew and thinking that he was too far north to hit Florida, and maybe the Carolinas would be a target, but a high pressure cell built in rapidly (very rapidly in fact ) and Andrew literally was steered due west at 25.6 degrees the entire two days. Ya coulda slapped a ruler down and drawn a line from 600 miles east of the Bahamas into South Dade. Andrew was an amazing storm that actually lost its entire low level circulation, only to come back as a monster 5. I heard people writing him of as dissipated...We know the rest.




This is the kind of 500 mb setup you want to see if you want a Gulf storm. If you don't, well, you're screwed, lol.

Longwave trough in the west and longwave ridge in the east = doom.

Notice the strength of the ridge, too. Very potent.
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Another disappointing day at the SAR Ranchette as we got no rain again. locations in far north Alabama got between a half-inch and an inch but from Montgomery east got a few hundredths to nothing. The boundary that was supposed to stay near the coast has now been pushed up into north Alabama, so all the rain has gone there. The current moisture blob is now getting cut off at the Gulf off east LA and is losing its moisture tap. Things aren't looking all that dandy for Thursday and Friday either as another low will travel from TX and then along the same boundary we've seen today. You'd think maybe I'd get a couple tents or something by now but, no, all I get is heat and no clouds. Drat!



Sorry to hear that SAR. We are low on the snow count here as well, which is bad because the snow pack replenishes water supplies.
Quoting 190. Dakster:

I was not talking from personal experience Sar... Just some things that have happened to others. Glad you had photo/video backup.

How are things in AL? Hot and steamy yet?

So glad I am in AK.

Wanna go to AK one day... To see auroras
Quoting Dakster:
I was not talking from personal experience Sar... Just some things that have happened to others. Glad you had photo/video backup.

How are things in AL? Hot and steamy yet?

So glad I am in AK.
It's plenty hot, Dak. High today was 86 but I got caught in a dry slot, so the humidity plunged from 69% to 48% in an hour. As I have been moaning about, all the rain has missed me while still delivering the warm air. It's really amazing how stable the air has been, even when it more humid. I just had a few passing cumulus today when I expected to see some development. It's bee a dry spring and we don't need any heat before we get some rain. There were all kinds of fires in the area today - and that was with almost no wind.

Yeah, that video really did save me. She was a shaker and mover in the county, and so drunk she kept falling out in the middle of the road. I just did the usual quick pat down before put her in the back seat and waited for a female deputy. I was actually quite shocked with what she accused me of. Our IA guy suggested to her and her lawyer that they review the video before they decided if they wanted to really file a formal complaint. You never saw two such hang dog looking people in the world as them when they came out of the interview room. :-)
Also, there's no doubt that we're in a dearth of major hurricane activity here in the states. Having said that, major hurricanes are statistically much rarer than weaker hurricanes, or even tropical storms. Really, once you get north of 20N, mid-latitude influence starts playing a more prominent role, which is why we rarely see cyclones strengthen as they approach the coast, and why they rarely go above Category 3 when they do finally reach the shore. There's typically a trough aloft to the west of a landfalling US hurricane. Storms like Andrew are the exceptions, where the system intensified under diffluent easterly flow beneath an upper ridge over the eastern US.
Quoting 6. Tropicsweatherpr:

Thank you Dr Henson. Great blog.


Well done, Tropicsweatherpr. Talk about living up to your blog name!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
15:00 PM JST March 11 2015
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 6.6N 170.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 6.8N 166.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
4:43 PM EST March 11 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 13.8S 146.0E or 115 kilometers north northeast of Lizard Island and 205 kilometers north northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

GALES extend out to approximately 180 kilometers from the center and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas later today and should persist into Thursday. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River later on Thursday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center overnight and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville from Thursday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island from early Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts this evening and should persist into Thursday. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is now also current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.9S 145.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.9S 145.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.6S 145.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.7S 148.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
Convection has continued to build around tropical cyclone Nathan overnight and into this morning with the system taking on an embedded center appearance in the latest satellite imagery. Recent microwave imagery show that a near encirclement of the circulation is occurring underneath the overcast, suggesting that the system is continuing to intensify. Some vertical wind shear appears to be restricting the outflow primarily to the west of the system, which is supported by the CIMMS vertical wind shear product that indicates easterly shear of around 20 knots. The latest ASCAT-B at 2319UTC shows an area of near storm force winds surrounding the low level center.

The Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded center pattern with a greater than W surrounding grey shade, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT were 3.0 and 3.5 respectively. FT based on PAT as DT was not completely clear. The location of the low level center is rated as fair to poor based on recent microwave imagery and peripheral radar returns.

Tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction into Thursday under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should slow the westwards movement of the system.

Tropical cyclone Nathan should continue to intensify during today and into Thursday as it moves into a more favorable environment for further development with lowering vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29C

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Coen to Port Douglas

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Lockhart River to Coen
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
2:57 PM EST March 11 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category One (998 hPa) located at 16.3S 116.1E or 500 kilometers north of Karratha and 660 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

The system has rapidly developed in the last few hours. Tropical Cyclone Olwyn will to continue to develop as it moves in a south to southwest direction over the next 48 hours, reaching the west Pilbara coastline Friday morning.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop between Karratha and Exmouth during Thursday. Should the system take a more southerly track during Thursday then gales may develop as far east as Whim Creek.

DESTRUCTIVE gusts in excess of 125 km/h could develop near the west Pilbara coast late evening Thursday.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Friday and Saturday and may lead to flooding.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 17.3S 115.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 19.0S 115.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 23.4S 114.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 30.5S 117.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
A monsoonal surge has rapidly developed the system in the last few hours. ASCAT has 30-40 knots around the center, in the northern and eastern quadrants. The intensity of the system is biased towards the ASCAT winds. The system has developed within an area of low vertical shear. CMISS has the vertical shear around 10-20 knots.

The Dvorak analysis has a DT 3.0 with a curved band of 0.7 wrap. FT/CI are constrained to 2.5, with the system 24 hrs ago T1.0 or less.

Model guidance is very consistent with the system forecast to move in a south to southwest direction over the next 48 hours, into an area of decreasing vertical shear. With Sea surface temperatures are around 30C the environment for development is favorable.

The development of the system is forecast to peak at a top end category 2 intensity. The shear will increase over the system when it reaches the west Pilbara coast on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from coastal areas from Port Hedland to Ningaloo, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, and Exmouth. Not including Port Hedland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Ningaloo to Kalbarri, and adjacent inland areas of the west Pilbara and west Gascoyne, including Nanutarra, Pannawonica, Gascoyne Junction, and Murchison Roadhouse
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY THREE (11F)
18:00 PM FST March 11 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Three (950 hPa) located at 11.1S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Organization remains good. Deep convection remains persistent. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment with moderate to strong upper divergence. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 250 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C

System tracking along the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located to the east. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center pattern, low level circulation center embedded in w, yields DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southwards movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 12.1S 169.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 13.3S 169.4E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 16.7S 169.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
202. vis0
At my ml-d reset PAGE blog pg 2 cmmnt #56 my point of view on why 5 specific weather events happened in relation to weather over the ml-d AOI MAX. If you go there you'll notice one of 4 VIDs has a ring around the NYC area that's the ml-d AOI MAX area. Even if you reject the notion of the ml-d you'll view Satellite imagery of interesting weather.

WHOLE OTHER SUBJECT, can you pick out 2 interesting going ons in this VID.
CREDIT:: Japanese Meteorological Agency
http://youtu.be/IYT7AFVxpSs(720x188)



203. MahFL
Quoting 123. hydrus:

Damn that looks awful..It might be wrong...i hope


It's beautiful, plus it's not going to hit any large population centers, so why are you all so worried ?


Good morning from Germany with bright blue sky and 15C/59F at my place thanks to high Luisa. Here is the 24h loop of the Pacific bassin. As I write this, the eye of Pam still doesn't show up and the cyclone has to digest more dry air.

Found a video showing Cat 4 cyclone Dani hitting/passing Vanuatu/Island Efate with Port Vila in 1999. No fun for the island, for sure!


Click to enlarge.

Current loop of TPW (Total Precipitable Water) nicely shows the enhancement of the Westerlies at the equator by cyclone Pam and 97W.
barb -

That precipitable water map gets all jumbled, choppy, and blank for me as the frames roll on. Is that happening for anyone else?
"This is the fun part, baby."

Quoting 207. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"This is the fun part, baby."



We have an eye.
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:
barb -

That precipitable water map gets all jumbled, choppy, and blank for me as the frames roll on. Is that happening for anyone else?


Yes, same thing.
From the blog.
GFS and European models which show the cyclone intensifying into a Category 5 monster with a central pressure less than 880 mb by late this week. If this forecast verifies, it would make Pam one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded, world-wide. However, these models are not known for making reliable intensity forecasts, and are generally disregarded by NHC for intensity forecasts in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.
so pam originated from a monsoon trough? it looked like it to me. slow developer and mover
Quoting 203. MahFL:



It's beautiful, plus it's not going to hit any large population centers, so why are you all so worried ?
Everything is always going to be the next super storm on here.

MattRogers
7:47 AM EDT [Edited]
I agree- the cold pattern is returning so we should have more snow chances in the final 1/3 of March. It's not over quite yet.
Overall seems to be cooling a bit

First time 3.4 is below 0.5C since Jan


1 2 hanging negatives around -0.8C


3 has dropped into negatives


4 is still above 1.0C but it is falling


Anyway let's see if this continues

I still don't buy this super El nino that Scott is babbling CFS had cooked up for there forecast
I remember last year same time CFS showed the same thing
Plus we had a hot sub surface pool like what we had last year but last year was warmer and it all got cooled off

It may be a weak el nino or a Modoki El nino I still think the El Nio may not be with us long
214. Hugo5
Maybe it's me, but why has the storm due north of Pam been given a designator. It shows more than enough tropical characteristics and is in a favorable environment. It also is showing some pretty great outflow from most sectors, which by all means could be a strong tropical storm/possible hurricane.

Some rain for Cali.
Quoting 206. LongIslandBeaches:

barb -
That precipitable water map gets all jumbled, choppy, and blank for me as the frames roll on. Is that happening for anyone else?

Happens from time to time with this satellite product. I hope it won't get worse.
Quoting 214. Hugo5:

Maybe it's me, but why has the storm due north of Pam been given a designator. It shows more than enough tropical characteristics and is in a favorable environment. It also is showing some pretty great outflow from most sectors, which by all means could be a strong tropical storm/possible hurricane.

Per the JTWC:

"FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.0N 172.1E TO 7.8N 163.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS."

and

"THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH."

Full text
I see the track has shifted west for Pam....:/ This is quickly becoming an uncomfortable situation down there for the Islands of Vanuatu.



Quoting 218. ILwthrfan:

I see the track has shifted west for Pam....:/ This is quickly becoming an uncomfortable situation down there for the Islands of Vanuatu.




Yep..and still moving ssw albeit slowly..She is at 120 mph as of the last advisory.

220. SLU
17P.PAM.115kts-937mb-115S-1697E
Busy, busy. The system off the northwest coast of Australia has been designated TC Olwyn.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
10:59 PM EST March 11 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 13.9S 146.0E or 105 kilometers northeast of Lizard Island and 195 kilometers north northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

GALES extend out to approximately 180 kilometers from the center and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas overnight and should persist into Thursday. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River late Thursday or Friday morning, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center during Thursday morning and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville from late Thursday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island from early Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts this evening and through Thursday. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is now also current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 14.0S 145.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.7S 145.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.3S 146.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.4S 150.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
Convection weakened around tropical cyclone Nathan around sundown, but has started to build again over the past couple of hours. The system is taking on an embedded center appearance on the satellite imagery. Microwave imagery shows a westwards tilt in the system, with CIMMS vertical wind shear product indicating easterly shear of around 20-30 knots across the system.

The Dvorak analysis was difficult with no curvature on Satellite Imagery, though the Microwave indicates this. The recent microwave imagery indicates fair to good position for low level center, but deep convection is weaker than earlier today. The MET and PAT were 3.0, so have based FT and CI on 3.5 by holding during initial weakening.

Tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction into Thursday under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should slow the westwards movement of the system before it adopts an eastwards track into Friday.

Tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to maintain intensity or even slightly intensify into Thursday morning as it moves into a slightly more favorable environment, with further intensification expected later Thursday as vertical wind shear lowers and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29C.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Coen to Port Douglas

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Lockhart River to Coen
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
8:57 PM EST March 11 2015
=====================================

At 8:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category One (992 hPa) located at 16.9S 116.0E or 435 kilometers north northwest of Karratha and 590 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn continues to intensify as it approaches the west Pilbara coast. Olwyn will be near the west Pilbara coast early on Friday morning with landfall expected between Exmouth and Mardie. The system will then continue to move towards the south and weaken.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr are expected to develop between Karratha and Exmouth during Thursday afternoon. Should the system take a more southerly track during Thursday then gales may extend as far east as Whim Creek. From late Thursday, gales may extend inland to Pannawonica and Nanutarra.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 km/hr could develop near the west Pilbara coast late Thursday evening or early Friday morning as the cyclone approaches the coast. DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Coral Bay for a period during Friday.

Residents between Onslow and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous flooding.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne from Thursday and continue into Friday and Saturday before easing.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 18.1S 115.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 20.1S 114.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 24.7S 114.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 32.4S 119.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn was located using recent visible and microwave imagery.

Dvorak: Curved band analysis on both visible and enhanced infrared gives DTs between 3.0 and 3.5. Curved bands were wrapping 0.7 to 0.8. so DT was 3.0. MET was 2.5/3.0 with PAT 3.0/3.5. FT/CI set to 3.0 with intensity of 45 knots [10 minute mean winds]. This is in generally agreement with ADT.

Recent microwave imagery showed deep convection starting to wrap about half way around the low level circulation center to the south and east.

CIMSS shear analysis at 06 UTC indicated shear between 10 and 20 knots. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.The environment is generally favorable for intensification at close to the standard rate. Intensification to category 3 [hurricane force] is a risk before the system makes landfall in the vicinity of Exmouth/Onslow.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. The motion is forecast to increase to around 10 knots from the current 5-6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from coastal areas from Port Hedland to Cape Cuvier, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Mardie, Onslow, Pannawonica, Nanutarra and Exmouth. Not including Port Hedland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Cuvier to Kalbarri, and adjacent inland areas of the west Pilbara and west Gascoyne, including Murchison Roadhouse
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
21:00 PM JST March 11 2015
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 6.6N 169.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 7.8N 166.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
HURRICANE WARNING 023 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 11/1311 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 946HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4 SOUTH
169.7 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.4S 169.7E at 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS
BY 121200 UTC.


TXPS21 KNES 111311
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 11/1214Z

C. 11.4S

D. 169.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF 6.0
WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0655Z 11.1S 169.8E WINDSAT
11/0720Z 11.0S 169.9E SSMIS
11/0747Z 11.0S 170.0E SSMIS
11/0831Z 11.0S 169.9E SSMIS


...VELASCO
atlantic basin is just a hair warmer than in 2014
Over the next week, exceptional westerly winds are expected to persist across the equatorial western and central Pacific, while the preexisting easterly winds across the equatorial eastern Pacific reverse. The net result should be basin-wide warming.


trop...i see the conventional wisdom in your post....however...up to now....we haven't seen that happen....we've had a westerly anomaly in the pacific for over two weeks...with an intense anomaly for almost a week.....and in that time....all 4 enso regions....have dropped an average of 0.5C's....not risen as would be typical
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Compare.
Quoting islander101010:
atlantic basin is just a hair warmer than in 2014


Yep it's gonna be a interesting season 2015 shall be
Extension to Flash Flood Watch for the New Orleans Area.
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...
IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...
LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE AND WEST FELICIANA.
IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AMITE...HANCOCK... HARRISON...
JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL AND WILKINSON.

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* WAVES OF REPEATING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT.

* AREAS THAT SEE CONTINUOUS TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A
SHORT TIME COULD RECIEVE FLOOD WATER TO DEPTHS THAT WOULD
IMPACT PROPERTY AND PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&
Quoting 230. islander101010:

atlantic basin is just a.hair warmer than in 2014 .
I completely agree with that. If this el nino stays weak, or turns into modoki, we could see conditions much like 2012 or 2004, 2006,and 2002 could be good analogs for the upcoming hurricane season. On top of that, the current AMO index is a bit more positive than last year, also the majority of the Atlantic basin is running average to above average. It just depends on the strength of enso. Actually, all of the nino regions have cooled, with two of the regions in a cool neutral to la nina state. This year may not be a bust, but overall, I at LEAST expect average activity. I'll post the iri/cpc probabilistic forecasts for enso.
Quoting 234. wunderkidcayman:



Yep it's gonna be a interesting season 2015 shall be
I absolutely agree. Most of it depends in my comment 236.
Good Morning Folks. Most eyes on the Pacific storms in the Southern Hemisphere; impressive to say the least and I agree with a comment from yesterday with regard to Pacific SST's and the upcoming Northern Hemisphere storm season later this Summer; we might see a really bang-up season for the North Pacific and E-Pac this year.

At the moment for Conus, here is the short-term outlook. Some welcome rain for the NW but what they really needed was more snow pack the last few months so long-term water shortage prospects are probably still on the horizon in spite of the current swath of incoming short-term rain.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 11 2015 - 12Z Fri Mar 13 2015

...Additional rounds of heavy rains and flash flooding will be possible
for the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Widespread precipitation expected across the Western U.S....

...Temperatures will remain well above normal over the northern Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus along a frontal boundary
stretched from the central Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic region. High
pressure building in over the Great Lakes should gradually press the
boundary south and east through the eastern U.S. on Wednesday...and the
front and any associated precipitation should push off the Southeast coast
by Thursday morning. Farther west...however...persistent southerly flow
ahead of an upper trough stuck over the south central U.S. will continue
to pump Gulf moisture northward. The anomalous moisture...combined with a
surface wave lifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico...will bring
additional rounds of heavy rains and flash flooding across the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

Precipitation will continue to spread inland over the Western U.S. on
Wednesday...ahead of a Pacific front approaching the coast. Moderate to
heavy rain will be possible along the coastal ranges...but the boundary
should dissipate before moving inland...which should keep precipitation
totals light over the Intermountain West and northern to central Rockies.

An upper ridge sliding in over the north central U.S. will keep
temperatures well above normal across the northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday.





239. MAstu
Thanks for addressing the lack of Severe Thunderstorms. The subject is near and dear to my heart as I have spent much of the last year running Severe Thunderstorm simulations!
Quoting 233. ricderr:

Over the next week, exceptional westerly winds are expected to persist across the equatorial western and central Pacific, while the preexisting easterly winds across the equatorial eastern Pacific reverse. The net result should be basin-wide warming.


trop...i see the conventional wisdom in your post....however...up to now....we haven't seen that happen....we've had a westerly anomaly in the pacific for over two weeks...with an intense anomaly for almost a week.....and in that time....all 4 enso regions....have dropped an average of 0.5C's....not risen as would be typical

It's not an instantaneous process. A downwelling kelvin wave by result of persistent westerly winds is leading to anomalous subsurface warming, with anomalies near 6C at a depth of ~150m east of the International Date Line. This wave and associated warm pool should continue to progress eastward over the coming months, reversing the current upwelling across the equatorial East Pacific and leading to above average anomalies.

Link

New Island pops up in the SoPac near Tonga... nice gallery on the Telegraph, Imagine Pam would knock it down fairly quickly..
Worth to be saved:


Interesting. The gap in probability of neutral and el nino is a small gap, which means although el nino conditions will be present, it may have little to no effect on the upcoming hurricane season, as stated in tropicsweatherpr's enso blog.By the peak months of hurricane season, the probability for neutral conditions is 40-50%, and 50% for el nino conditions. So I would say an equal 50/50 chance for an active season. We just have to get past the spring barrier, so model accuracy made at this time will be very low skilled. Don't trust them just yet.img src="http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/20 15/03/figure1.gif">
Quoting 242. barbamz:

Worth to be saved:





I'm always very impressed by your command of English, barbamz, but it's 'worth saving'.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
I completely agree with that. If this el nino stays weak, or turns into modoki, we could see conditions much like 2012 or 2004, 2006,and 2002 could be good analogs for the upcoming hurricane season. On top of that, the current AMO index is a bit more positive than last year, also the majority of the Atlantic basin is running average to above average. It just depends on the strength of enso. Actually, all of the nino regions have cooled, with two of the regions in a cool neutral to la nina state. This year may not be a bust, but overall, I at LEAST expect average activity. I'll post the iri/cpc probabilistic forecasts for enso.

I agree
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Interesting. The gap in probability of neutral and el nino is a small gap, which means although el nino conditions will be present, it may have little to no effect on the upcoming hurricane season, as stated in tropicsweatherpr's enso blog.By the peak months of hurricane season, the probability for neutral conditions is 40-50%, and 50% for el nino conditions. So I would say an equal 50/50 chance for an active season. We just have to get past the spring barrier, so model accuracy made at this time will be very low skilled. Don't trust them just yet.img src="http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/20 15/03/figure1.gif">

Yep totally
Quoting 242. barbamz:

Worth to be saved:




Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FOUR (11F)
0:00 AM FST March 12 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Four (946 hPa) located at 11.4S 169.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM in northern semicircle
180 NM elsewhere.

Organization remains good. Deep convection remains persistent. System lies in a high sheared environment. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300hpa. Sea surface temperatures area around 30C.

Pam is being steered southwards by a northerly deep layer mean flow. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with lg eye embedded in w surround, yields DT=6.0, MET= 5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 12.5S 169.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 14.1S 169.7E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 18.2S 169.9E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
Quoting 245. yonzabam:


I'm always very impressed by your command of English, barbamz, but it's 'worth saving'.

Really, lol? This advice is worth saving for me :-) Thank you!
Quoting 179. sar2401:

Not saying I don't believe you but, in weather, the worst thing you can trust is your memory. 15 years ago you were 14. I don't know about you but, when I was 14, the last thing I closely examined was water in parking lots. Do you actually live at the beach? How often did you go to this restaurant? I'd go out on the web and look for actual records of sea level rise and then try to correlate them to this parking lot. I'm not saying sea level hasn't risen, but you should notice more than one parking lot to know if your observation is backed up by facts or it just stands out in your mind.


its just something that stood out to me..thats the point im trying to make....i nor does anyone else need to see it on paper i saw it with my own eyes...i do live at the beach and i go to this place multiple times a year and when i was going there in years past there never used to be water in the parking lot, i also noticed it in other areas where you have to drive through it during high tide. its just more noticeable in this parking lot and when i say parking lot its a huge parking lot the size of walmarts. Thats why it stuck out to me.
three cyclones right over that large area of above normal temp.s.
Quoting 165. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Over the next week, exceptional westerly winds are expected to persist across the equatorial western and central Pacific, while the preexisting easterly winds across the equatorial eastern Pacific reverse. The net result should be basin-wide warming.




Tell them to calm down
Current Pacific warm anomalies; no surprise there with most of the South Pacific storms clustered in that general location as noted below:

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation
"Honey, I'm sick of this cold and snow. let's go somewhere nice."

"Hawaii?"

"Yes, dear. Hawaii. Sun. Sand. Surf. Tropical breezes. palm trees swayin...wait. What?"

As if it wasn't enough with all those tropical cyclones down under ...

Wild storm lashes Sydney's west
News.com.au, 2 hours ago March 11, 2015 11:24PM
A WILD storm has lashed Sydney's west and south, causing widespread damage including flooding and car accidents, as well as pulling a roof onto train tracks.
MORE than 20,000 homes lost power when heavy rainfall, damaging winds and lightning rolled through after 7pm on Wednesday night, with authorities saying some would not be reconnected until Thursday.
A Bringelly family was forced to leave their home when their roof collapsed, while another piece of roof blew onto train tracks at Mount Druitt. ...


And more on the way.
Quoting hydrus:


Where's Gro? Tell him I see a blob in the GOMEX! :P
Subtropical Storm Cari.
Winds: 40 mph
Gusts: 50 mph
Pressure: 1000 mbar


Starting to create deep convection in the center.
Quoting 255. weathermanwannabe:

Current Pacific warm anomalies; no surprise there with most of the South Pacific storms clustered in that general location as noted below:

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation
And the water is actually warm along the N.W.coast of South America....bout time.
Quoting 258. CybrTeddy:



Where's Gro? Tell him I see a blob in the GOMEX! :P
Imagine if it wuz da season...I,d say i think we got somethin.
Re post 255, weathermanwannabe: that's a map of actual temps, not temp anomalies
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Current Pacific warm anomalies; no surprise there with most of the South Pacific storms clustered in that general location as noted below:

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation

Those are not Anomalies
Link

The bottom are anomalies
Quoting 259. pablosyn:

Subtropical Storm Cari.
Winds: 40 mph
Gusts: 50 mph
Pressure: 1000 mbar


wonder why marine warnings for this area hasn't updated since 200 AM UTC..

WARNING NR 170/2015
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 0200 GMT - WED - 11/MAR/2015
SUBTROPICAL STORM “CARI” WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA AT 29S046W, MOVING AT 05 KT TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH WIND FORCE 7/8 WITH GUSTS FORCE 9/10 AFFECTING AREA ALFA NORTH OF 34S, AREA BRAVO SOUTH OF 28S AND SOUTH OCEANIC AREA WEST OF 038W. ESTIMATED POSITION AT 111200 HMG – 30S046W.
VALID UNTIL 120000 GMT.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Interesting. The gap in probability of neutral and el nino is a small gap, which means although el nino conditions will be present, it may have little to no effect on the upcoming hurricane season, as stated in tropicsweatherpr's enso blog.By the peak months of hurricane season, the probability for neutral conditions is 40-50%, and 50% for el nino conditions. So I would say an equal 50/50 chance for an active season. We just have to get past the spring barrier, so model accuracy made at this time will be very low skilled. Don't trust them just yet.img src="http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/20 15/03/figure1.gif">


If el nino happens as you state, then one other factor had to be considered and that is the dry/stable air across the Atlantic. Any idea with the status or forecast of that? We will not have a 2004 or other analog years if the air is too stable and sinking.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Honey, I'm sick of this cold and snow. let's go somewhere nice."

"Hawaii?"

"Yes, dear. Hawaii. Sun. Sand. Surf. Tropical breezes. palm trees swayin...wait. What?"



This would affect about the top 2000 feet of
Mauna Kea 13,796 ft. 4,205
Mauna Loa 13,679 ft. 4,169
Thanks folks on the correction as to the chart I posted; actual SST's versus anomalies. Either way, real toasty fueling the current storms............................. :)
Quoting 265. luvtogolf:



If el nino happens as you state, then one other factor had to be considered and that is the dry/stable air across the Atlantic. Any idea with the status or forecast of that? We will not have a 2004 or other analog years if the air is too stable and sinking.
No I'm not sure. But , if indeed the el nino affects the season dramatically, 2006 would be a good analog year. In fact,the SAL was really the main reason why the season was mostly the reason why the season was so inactive. The SAL was like the fly swapt, and the tropical waves the flies. They tried to fight their way across the stable Atlantic, and instead of them going kabooom, they went poof! The SAL is kind of hard to predict. It all depends on the position of the Azores/Bermuda high, and it's tendency to blow dusty,stable air off of the Sahara Desert.
If those SST's continue to warm going into the start of E-Pac season on May 15th, we could see plenty of E-Pac systems this year again...........Another possible factor down the road to consider for parts of Mexico/Baha on systems steered back around after genesis off the coast of Central/South America.
Cari
Quoting 269. weathermanwannabe:

If those SST's continue to warm going into the start of E-Pac season on May 15th, we could see plenty of E-Pac systems this year again...........Another possible factor down the road to consider for parts of Mexico/Baha on systems steered back around after genesis off the coast of Central/South America.
What are your thoughts on the Atlantic side?
Pending Grothar's input, that mesoscale complex in the Gulf looks interesting but being sheared (the CIMSS shear chart is currently not working but here is the GFS model for today for mid-level flow) :


Waiting for the sun to come up on Mauna Kea to see the snow storm.
Link
Quoting 271. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What are your thoughts on the Atlantic side?


We all enjoy the debate on here every year, and try to speculate months in advance, but we will not have a good feel for it until July/August for current conditions/enso phase. I am leaning towards an average year (around 10 storms) if we have a moderate El Nino but time will tell.
Anyone notice a cool pool in the epac. It seems as if it has extended more westward over the past month.
Quoting 269. weathermanwannabe:

If those SST's continue to warm going into the start of E-Pac season on May 15th, we could see plenty of E-Pac systems this year again...........Another possible factor down the road to consider for parts of Mexico/Baha on systems steered back around after genesis off the coast of Central/South America.

Yeah. A warming ENSO and record-breaking positive PDO should make the East Pacific a breeding ground for tropical cyclones if conditions persist. 2014 saw 22 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 9 major hurricanes, and 2013 saw 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and a major hurricane. I wouldn't bet against similar or even higher numbers this year.
Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:



We all enjoy the debate on here every year, and try to speculate months in advance, but we will not have a good feel for it until July/August for current conditions/enso phase. I am leaning towards an average year (around 10 storms) if we have a moderate El Nino but time will tell.
I totally agree. Everytime I attempt make an early forecast, I always say average season, and as time progresses,model accuracy becomes better,and atmospheric variables become more dominant, then i think about adjusting my numbers. Time always tell.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Pending Grothar's input, that mesoscale complex in the Gulf looks interesting but being sheared (the CIMSS shear chart is currently not working but here is the GFS model for today for mid-level flow) :


We had the same convective mess yesterday. There's quite a bit of lightning associated with it but the stroke count is down to about 50 per minute from over 100 just an hour ago. As the storms move over the continental shelf and into cooler water, they lose definition and eventually end up being just some scattered areas of light rain. Not for me, of course, but maybe for the area along the TX/LA border. So far, this series of lows has not turned to to matched the pre-release advertising.
wow...do u think that the severe outbreaks are not the same cause the seasons are not acting the same? i have never seen my flowers/plants go thru their cycle as early as they have this year. cause & effect
Quoting 164. uncwhurricane85:

Happy Gilmore said it best. "gold jacket green jacket who gives a ****" I say el nino la nina........ what matters in our life time and beyond is sea level rise. there have always been droughts, floods, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, volcanos, and tsunami's in all generations past, present, and will be in the future. However never in modern times or even the past few hundreds of thousands of years has any being on earth had to deal with sea level rise like we are currently. Even a 1% melt in Greenland would cause major problems for all coastal areas. Its very evident. I'm only 29 years old and I remember going to eat in southport, n.c. marina and never having to deal with water during high tide. now during every high tide the entire parking lot floods with 2-3 inches of salt water, and more than 6 inches during a full moon. Even 15 years ago that didn't happen at all. Its estimated that water has rose 2.5 inches in the past 25 years according to water levels in that area. Not saying the ocean has risen that much everywhere, but you cant deny that its obvious within a few years you wont even be able to drive to that marina. I'm sure this is the case in a lot of costal cities and beaches throughout the world. I understand sea level has been steadily rising very slowly but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look out the window to see water in the parking lot where it never used to be, so its indeed rising at a faster rate than it used to.


Ocean levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age, about 120 meters (390 feet) in 18,000 years. The problem is building fixed structures in a changing coast and not allowing for these expected changes.
Quoting 220. SLU:

17P.PAM.115kts-937mb-115S-1697E
Hello friend! You have been very quiet and i wonder why.

Although Pam continues to steadily intensify, dry air is sure putting up a good fight.

Where's AussieStorm been with all this goin' on in his neighborhood?
Sst's seem warm in Atlantic.
Quoting 279. WaterWitch11:

wow...do u think that the severe outbreaks are not the same cause the seasons are not acting the same? i have never seen my flowers/plants go thru their cycle as early as they have this year. cause & effect


Second year in a row with a non-existent maple syrup season because its so cold.
Another recent shot from Pam:

Quoting 282. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Although Pam continues to steadily intensify, dry air is sure putting up a good fight.


Shear i think.
So far...



And waiting on the next low...


Atlantic actually not in bad shape. MDR , especially near the coast of Africa seems to have warmed in the last week. Also, notice some of the cooling in the epac. Any thoughts?
Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:



We all enjoy the debate on here every year, and try to speculate months in advance, but we will not have a good feel for it until July/August for current conditions/enso phase. I am leaning towards an average year (around 10 storms) if we have a moderate El Nino but time will tell.


I'm going to speculate months in advance but with solid brass arrogant confidence that this coming summer
will be warmer than this past winter in North America.

I'm ready to answer all the tough questions!
Quoting Gearsts:
Shear i think.


Nope. Definitely dry-air. This is a sheared system:



In regards to Pam, I may have to lower my intensity forecast to be more in line with what the JTWC is predicting if it doesn't cycle out that dry air soon. It's pretty badly impeding the development of its core. The eyewall has yet to wrap around completely and is exposed on the southeastern side.

Quoting 290. georgevandenberghe:



I'm going to speculate months in advance but with solid brass arrogant confidence that this coming summer
will be warmer than this past winter in North America.

I'm ready to answer all the tough questions!

LOL...now there's a bandwagon I can jump on :)

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE EARLIER 0152Z AND
0238Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 35 KT ENE WINDS FROM
11.5 TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74 TO 76W. THESE HIGH WINDS ARE BEING
CAUSED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1004 MB LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A 1029 MB BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST...IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL TOPOGRAPHICAL WIND
ENHANCEMENTS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Quoting 282. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Although Pam continues to steadily intensify, dry air is sure putting up a good fight.




Probably, but necessarily dry air, could be low level divergence or something else, all cyclones change structure too, I've seen documented profile cross sections where saturation is present to a depth with no relative RH min regions and convection will lack. Also, it's hard to keep convection completely continuous until a TC reaches a higher intensity.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER A PORTION OF WEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS MORNING. REFER TO THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MUCH OF THE WEEK...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR FOUR
INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.



This would affect about the top 2000 feet of
Mauna Kea 13,796 ft. 4,205
Mauna Loa 13,679 ft. 4,169



and not far away at all....seeing the island at its widest is just 76 miles....it will be in the mid 70's today
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
on another snow note...or lack thereof......the iditarod race...had to be moved 250 miles north due to a lack of snow
Quoting 272. weathermanwannabe:

Pending Grothar's input, that mesoscale complex in the Gulf looks interesting but being sheared (the CIMSS shear chart is currently not working but here is the GFS model for today for mid-level flow) :



If that were east , it would be over warmer water...I trust no disturbance in the gulf..no matter the month..but if this were the season, i bet eyes would be on it.