WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter

By: Bob Henson 3:37 PM GMT on March 09, 2015

Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in 2015 (red trace) may have already reached its maximum extent for the year. Image credit: National Institute of Polar Research (Japan).


Even more striking is the consistency of the ice loss over the last couple of weeks. March is often a time of rapid gains and losses in ice cover, as seasonal warming and melting battle it out with quick refreezing when shots of cold air return. This year, the ice extent peaked on February 15 at 13.94 million sq km, and it looks increasingly unlikely that the ice will manage to return to that very early peak over the next couple of weeks. No season in the Japanese database has fallen short of the 14-million mark, so if the February peak stands, it will mark the lowest maximum in the Arctic since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

Using a slightly different formula for calculating extent, the National Snow and Ice Data Center comes up with a similar record low for the date (Figure 2). In an update on March 4, NSIDC stated: “The Arctic maximum is expected to occur in the next two or three weeks. Previous years have seen a surge in Arctic ice extent during March (e.g., in 2012, 2014). However, if the current pattern of below-average extent continues, Arctic sea ice extent may set a new lowest winter maximum.” (As explained by NSIDC, “extent” measures the outer edge of where ice covers most of the ocean surface, with at least 15 percent of ice coverage required in a given grid cell. It’s a bit like measuring the size of a slice of Swiss cheese. “Area” is a more direct index of where ice actually exists--the cheese itself--but it’s also more prone to difficulty in satellite measurement.)


Figure 2. A closer look at Arctic sea ice extent for each year since 2007. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center/Charctic.


Not only is Arctic sea ice essential to many ecosystems: it serves as a powerful tracer of recent warming, and its absence in summer allows open water to absorb much more heat from sunlight. While the ice has seen some modest recovery in recent years, it has failed to fully mend the fabric torn by the record-setting drop of 2007. The overall thickness of the ice, and the fraction that’s survived for multiple years (multiyear ice), have both suffered major losses. A comprehensive survey just published in The Cryosphere found that ice thickness in the central Arctic dropped by 65 percent from 1975 to 2012.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner. Sea ice around Antarctica has increased somewhat in recent years, but that ice plays a vastly different role in global and regional climate.

A lot can happen during a particular Arctic warm season to accelerate or mute ice loss. Melt ponds scattered across the ice play a vital role in absorbing sunlight and hastening further melt, and cloud-free, sunny weather--especially near the summer solstice--can make a huge difference. Because of these and other intervening factors, there’s little correlation between the size of the March (or February) maximum and that of the September minimum. Even so, the magnitude of the current record low for the date is jarring, and weather patterns this week could raise eyebrows even further. A string of intense cyclones is now riding the jet stream northward between Greenland and Norway. The flow around these storms is close to ideal for pushing large amounts of ice to their doom through the Fram Strait east of Greenland. Such export of ice is more common when the Arctic Oscillation is positive, as it’s been most of this winter. NOAA’s daily AO index reached an extremely high value over the past weekend, exceeding 5.5.


Figure 3. The daily Arctic Oscillation index was nearly off the charts on the high side during the weekend of March 7-8, 2015. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The current weather pattern is also pushing a huge pulse of extremely mild late-winter air across the central Arctic (see Figure 4). Temperatures on Sunday, March 8, reached 15.8°C (60.4°F) in Stockholm. Senior climatologist Sverker Hellström (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) observed today in an email forwarded by weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera that the 15.8°C is the warmest reading prior to March 19 in records at Stockholm that go all the way back to 1756! If there is any major refreezing of Arctic sea ice in the next few days, it’s most likely to occur in the Bering Sea, but the freeze-up there would have to be vast and quick to counterbalance the major ice losses we’ve seen across the Arctic as a whole since February. Even if a new peak is reached this month, it’s unlikely to be enough to keep 2015 from setting the record for the lowest maximum Arctic ice extent.

The Arctic Sea Ice Blog offers extensive coverage of this topic, including an excellent compilation of graphics updated daily. Blogger Jim Hunt examined the current situation in a detailed post on Sunday.

Bob Henson




Figure 4. A surge of relatively mild air may send temperatures 35°F or more above average over the central Arctic by Tuesday, March 10. Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.org.


Arctic

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GFS still holding strong with the idea of Cyclone Pam becoming an extraordinarily strong tropical cyclone.

Thanks, great summary of the conditions. This doesn't look good for the incoming melt season.
Both Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice are and JAXA Arctic sea ice extent are the lowest they've ever been for the date. In fact, extent is nearly a million square kilometers lower today than it was on the same date back in 2012, the year of the record melt-out. Of course, weather conditions may change and the coming summer could be kind to the ice as it has been the past few years. But being a million km2 below the record year should if nothing else put an end to the silly "recovery" talk heard on some sites.

Thanks, Bob!
No big deal, it's only if the Antarctica ice melts to record low levels that we need to worry. Lets see what happens when the PDO stays cold and the AMO cycle turns cold in a few years, you may see a complete opposite effect.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS still holding strong with the idea of Cyclone Pam becoming an extraordinarily strong tropical cyclone.


That is really close to Typhoon Tip's pressure of 870mb. Wow.
Yeah, sea ice extent is going to really suck this summer...
Correction to blog article: Ice coverage needs to be only at least 15% over a grid section to be included in the extent calculation.
Quoting 5. 62901IL:


That is really close to Typhoon Tip's pressure of 870mb. Wow.


915 mb and 905 mb both to the left... this seems shady
Thank You Mr. Henson. I am not versed enough on the technical issues impacting the current February ice issues for the Arctic/Greenland but will note that with the current warm weather in the Pacific Northwest, and the Gulf Stream warm anomalies off the NE Coast of Conus (contributing to some of the snow issues last month for New England), has probably contributed to these February numbers. As you have suggested ( A string of intense cyclones is now riding the jet stream northward between Greenland and Norway. The flow around these storms is close to ideal for pushing large amounts of ice to their doom through the Fram Strait east of Greenland. ), the month of February featured several counter-clockwise rotating low pressure systems, both on the Pacific and Atlantic side northern latitudes, which pumped in some warmer air masses into the Arctic latitudes due to the patterns I noted above. While the tough Arctic cold basically "dropped down" into Conus, right down from Central Canada, during the month February, providing for record lows here, it appears to have been a different story for parts of Canada and Greenland with some milder temps for February over many of the ice sheets during the same month.
Quoting NativeSun:
No big deal, it's only if the Antarctica ice melts to record low levels that we need to worry.
That's factually incorrect.
Quoting NativeSun:
...when the PDO stays cold and the AMO cycle turns cold in a few years, you may see a complete opposite effect.
No, we won't.

The Arctic ice is in the worst shape it's been in in many thousands of years. The PDO and AMO cause annual fluctuations, to be sure. But the ice is going away at both poles, and that's because we humans are warming the air and the oceans.

Pumping four million tons of heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere every hour will do that...
Quoting MaxWeather:


915 mb and 905 mb both to the right... this seems shady

I did notice that...what the heck?
Quoting 8. MaxWeather:



915 mb and 905 mb both to the left... this seems shady

It's catching elevated surface pressures off the islands. Just best to ignore it.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's catching elevated surface pressures off the islands. Just best to ignore it.

Thanks! Now it doesn't seem as shady.
Per comments below, I've corrected the description of how sea ice extent is calculated, and I've added a sentence with links on Antarctic sea ice and how it differs from Arctic ice. Thanks for the feedback!

Bob H.
Hmm new nino report out 3.4 nino back down to 0.5°C
Last week it was 0.6°C and back in Late Feb it I saw Levi's charts peak out at 0.9°C now falling back to 0.7°C

Cooling trend lol

Anyway for real let's see what this weak weird and late El nino can do
Here is the NWS weather headline for the day and short term WPC forecast from this am for Conus:

Heavy rain could lead to flash flooding to parts of Gulf Coast and lower Miss. Valley

Heavy rain fueled by Gulf moisture will develop across parts of the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. The heavy rain will lead to a risk of flash flooding, mainly across eastern Texas and Louisiana. The heavy rain is forecast to move northward into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Tuesday.


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Mon Mar 09 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2015 - 12Z Wed Mar 11 2015

...The flash flood threat will continue over eastern Texas on Monday...

Widespread precipitation will continue to develop ahead of an upper trough
edging eastward out of northern Mexico on Monday. A rich supply of Gulf
moisture feeding into the precipitation will fuel heavy rains and
thunderstorms...which could lead to flash flooding over eastern Texas and
into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the upper trough lifts
north Monday night into Tuesday...the heavy rains and threat for flash
flooding will shift northeastward across the Tennessee Valley...lower Ohio
Valley...and central Appalachians.

Weather over the rest of the Nation will remain relatively quiet early
this week. Much of the central and eastern U.S. will continue to thaw out
with above normal temperatures. Light snows will be possible with a weak
upper disturbance streaking through the Northeast on Monday...and an
upstream system grazing the Upper Great Lakes could trigger light snow
showers on Tuesday. An upper ridge out West will keep conditions warm and
dry on Monday...but an approaching Pacific front should bring
precipitation into the West Coast by the middle of the week.

Thanks for the worrisome update!
Matching the current record mild temperature in Sweden and other parts of Skandinavia, the Baltic Sea ice is in really bad shape. Or better: Barely any left right now.

What it should be in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea this time of the year (grey = ice and thickness; blue = temps of open water, if I get it right):



What it is right now:



Source: Finish Meteorological Institute.

No wonder, if you have a look at the temperature anomalies this winter for Europe:


Source of the map: UK winter forecast review - how did we do?
According to new Nino report ONI dropped from 0.7 to 0.6
Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm new nino report out 3.4 nino back down to 0.5°C
Last week it was 0.6°C and back in Late Feb it I saw Levi's charts peak out at 0.9°C now falling back to 0.7°C

Cooling trend lol

Anyway for real let's see what this weak weird and late El nino can do

Week to week changes in values don't mean much themselves. Also, Levi's graph depicts daily values, while the CPC reports weekly values. That's an apples to oranges comparison.
Quoting 18. barbamz:

Thanks for the worrisome update!
Matching the current record mild temperature in Sweden and other parts of Skandinavia, the Baltic Sea ice is in really bad shape. Or better: Barely any left right now.

What it should be in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea this time of the year (grey = normal ice and thickness; blue = temps of open water, if I get it right):



What it is right now:



Source: Finish Meteorological Institute.

No wonder, if you have a look at the temperature anomalies this winter for Europe:




I wonder if the increased sea surface temperature off the west coast of Norway and Sweden are responsible for an increase in snow amounts in the highlands corresponding to a deeper snow pack and subsequent cooler temperatures to the local region? Looks kinda like there might be a correlation there. Anyone with analogy on that area?
22. bwi
Pulled over from the previous blog. Thanks for your indulgence -- obviously I think this is a really big story.

Although it's only indirectly weather related, this might turn out to be the most important climate/weather story of 2015: Chinese journalist Chai Jing's documentary "Under the Dome" about China's air pollution. It's riveting, even with subtitles. It had approximately 150 million views in China before being censored earlier this week. The sort of work that could have a lasting impact on China's emissions of CO2 as well as particulate smoke.
And finally, here is a short portion of the SPC Outlook for today; looks like a rain event
for the Gulf coast, with some gusty cells, but no severe weather threat:

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2015
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTH
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
	
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTRIBUTES TO WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG/ AND MODEST
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE
AREA. A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT MAY ALSO
FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUGGEST THAT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF
WEAKLY-ROTATING STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.


Quoting 21. ILwthrfan:



I wonder if the increased sea surface temperature off the west coast of Norway and Sweden are responsible for an increase in snow amounts in the highlands corresponding to a deeper snow pack and subsequent cooler temperatures to the local region? Looks kinda like there might be a correlation there. Anyone with analogy on that area?

Jet stream (the same one featuring the RRR and the 'Arctic Vortex'(ha, ha) on Stuck Pattern Syndrome constantly traversing the Atlantic on a rather northerly course this winter, steering depressions galore to Norway.
Actually a kind of heat wave is beginning today, setting Norway to temps normal for the second half of May.
Quoting 20. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Week to week changes in values don't mean much themselves. Also, Levi's graph depicts daily values, while the CPC reports weekly values. That's an apples to oranges comparison.


Yep, the "fruit" being used here vary substantially... Levi's graphics use CDAS for SSTs, the weekly ENSO updates from NOAA uses the OISSTv2 dataset, & what's ultimately recorded into ONI is from ERSST
The PDO's effect on north Pacific sea ice including the Bering Sea & the Sea of Okhotsk is becoming very evident...

I don't think it's just mere happenstance w/ the near-record breaking +PDO (easily the strongest winter signaling since @ least 1939-1942, if not in the entire historical record) that both areas are entering record territory for low sea ice, of course this came on the heels of the Bering Sea's record high year following the last large La Nina event. We observed a similar response (w/ PDO spike & coincident multi year +ENSO event (2002-05)) following the massive 1998-2001 multi yr La Nina as Pacific was attempting to adjust from the 1997-98 Super El Nino...





Melting glaciers create noisiest places in ocean, study says
Science Daily, Date: March 6, 2015, Source: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Summary: Researchers measure underwater noise in Alaskan and Antarctic fjords and find them to be the noisiest places in the ocean. This leads researchers to ask how animals such as whales and seals use the noise and what will happen to fjord ecosystems once the glaciers recede and the noise disappears.
Quoting 27. Webberweather53:

The PDO's effect on north Pacific sea ice including the Bering Sea & the Sea of Okhotsk is becoming very evident...

I don't think it's just mere happenstance w/ the near-record breaking +PDO (easily the strongest winter signaling since @ least 1939-1942, if not in the entire historical record) that both areas are entering record territory for low sea ice, of course this came on the heels of the Bering Sea's record high year following the last large La Nina event. We observed a similar response (w/ PDO spike & coincident multi year +ENSO event (2002-05)) following the massive 1998-2001 multi yr La Nina as Pacific was attempting to adjust from the 1997-98 Super El Nino...








And on the other side, the positive AO pushed a lot of older ice out through the Fram strait. No good.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
And finally, here is a short portion of the SPC Outlook for today; looks like a rain event
for the Gulf coast, with some gusty cells, but no severe weather threat: {snip}

As I wrote two days ago, east Alabama and most of the the Panhandle are going to be left out of the rain, at least through Wednesday. The winds here are mostly weakly easterly and the barometer is rising compared to southerly flow and a falling barometer over MS and LA. The main focus of rain is going to be from TX to LA and MS and then up through the TN and Ohio River valley. The gradient between substantial (>1.00") rain and very little (< 0.10") rain is going to be very sharp, with the cutoff right at the MS/AL line. I don't see this stuck pattern changing until Thursday or maybe Friday, when the trough finally starts to get kicked out to the east. That should be our best chance for thunderstorms and more substantial rain, but even that is not looking as positive as it did yesterday. There's already an obvious dry slot that has developed over us. Even though I'm at 70, the dewpoint is only 51, so that's not a good look for rain on our side of the boundary. Drat!



Edited: Original post was removed
Another HUGE increase on the NMME models which is updated by the IRI on March 19th. An incredible 0.5C rise from February from 1C to 1.5C by the end of Summer. Many models which were hovering at 1.2 or 1.3C are now 1.5C to 2.5C. Just incredible increases in all models which now all models show El-Nino intensifying this summer into moderate or strong categories.



Here's a breakdown below

NASA


GFDL


NCAR


CMC2


CFSv2
So, here I am flagging a denialist post because it's bull and contributes nothing to the conversation, and then I see three people (correction - four) in a row quote the entire post in question, so it lives on even if the original post gets deleted because enough people flag it.

C'mon, guys, let's use some common sense here.
Euro is out too and also maxes out at or over 2C by Summer's end.
+7 degree subsurface anomalies starting to appear!!!

Thank you. The world is changing before our eyes. Interesting times ahead. The rapid melting at both poles and Greenland will certainly have and affect on coastal regions around the world. Amazing what happens over time to the oceans. Divers found bat guano in caves under 4oo of water in the Bahamas , sea levels so low due to the ice locked up over and around the vast polar regions...

WEEFCA Bat Cave Dive Lucayan National Park ........Link
Quoting 38. sar2401:

So, here I am flagging a denialist post because it's bull and contributes nothing to the conversation, and then I see three people in a row quote the entire post in question, so it lives on even if the original post gets deleted because enough people flag it.

C'mon, guys, let's use some common sense here.


I think it should be saved for posterity. We should hang it from the rafters as a warning to all those who come with their anti-science, stupidity laden agendas. Let is serve as a message that clearly states "LOL". :)
Quoting 40. weatherbro:

+7 degree subsurface anomalies starting to appear!!!




Actually 6C anomalies but yes this warm pool is warmer than the one we had exactly a year ago if you go and compare dates and if someones say it isn't well I got proof waiting on deck. So with Nino 3.4 at or above 0.5C once this warm poll surfaces then expect El-Nino to quickly intensify come Summer.
Quoting 40. weatherbro:

7 degree subsurface anomalies starting to appear!!!




This is starting out the almost similar to last season, then as the pool migrated eastward it cooled as it neared the surface. Did we ever get anything above 1-2 degrees Celsius SST anomaly in the East Pac last season?
Quoting 44. ILwthrfan:



This is starting out the almost similar to last season, then as the pool migrated eastward it cooled as it neared the surface. Did we ever get anything about 1-2 above average SST anomaly in the East Pac last season?


We actually did get values to 1.9C in Nino 1&2 last Summer but Nino 3.4 was much lower. Once Nino 1&2 starts its quick rise then watchout as the gloves come off then as many models show Nino 3.4 reaching or exceeding 2C which is a big jump up from the February update.
Quoting 38. sar2401:

So, here I am flagging a denialist post because it's bull and contributes nothing to the conversation, and then I see three people (correction - four) in a row quote the entire post in question, so it lives on even if the original post gets deleted because enough people flag it.

C'mon, guys, let's use some common sense here.


Sar..you flag away all you want...but do not tell me how to post..or that I have no common sense...I for one disagree vehemently with the post...know he is factually wrong...but do not believe his post should be removed
Quoting 44. ILwthrfan:



This is starting out the almost similar to last season, then as the pool migrated eastward it cooled as it neared the surface. Did we ever get anything above 1-2 degrees Celsius SST anomaly in the East Pac last season?


This to will be similar as last year..Although the warm pool didn't cool per se.....The temps will be warming as the winter ends and that will diminish the anomalies
Quoting Naga5000:


I think it should be saved for posterity. We should hang it from the rafters as a warning to all those who come with their anti-science, stupidity laden agendas. Let is serve as a message that clearly states "LOL". :)
As you can see, the original "LOL" post is gone, along with the ones quoting the post. Just my way of thinking, of course, but even responding to a post that contains not only garbage science but a personal attack on the truthfulness of the author of today's blog gives it a legitimacy it doesn't deserve.
Quoting ricderr:


Sar..you flag away all you want...but do not tell me how to post..or that I have no common sense...I for one disagree vehemently with the post...know he is factually wrong...but do not believe his post should be removed
You don't believe a post that attacks the truthfulness of the blog author should be removed? If you come into my house and start calling me a liar, you'll sure be removed.
Quoting 48. ricderr:



This to will be similar as last year..Although the warm pool didn't cool per se.....The temps will be warming as the winter ends and that will diminish the anomalies


Not according to the models as they weren't even as bullish at any given point last year as what is about to come out on March 19th. I think the difference is SST's anomalies at this time last year were deep into a La Nina state which is not the case this year except for Nino 1&2 which those values can rise and drop fast.

At the models peak last year before the chances of El-Nino went down the IRI showed this which on the March 19th update will have a mean near 1.5C. So moderate El-Nino this summer seems pretty much a given now.

Last April 2014
Quoting weatherbro:
7 degree subsurface anomalies starting to appear!!!


That's actually 0.6C not 0.7C
Either way it's still cooler than last year same time when we had that massive hot pool and guess what that pool became cold
If anything I say stay the same for a bit then cools off back into neutral

And Scott needs to stop taking CFS word it fail to produce the El nino that it forecasted last year

I don't think CFS is getting it right just yet
Anyway I'll stick to what I said plus what CPC said about this El nino
It's too weak weird and late to change overall conditions

(Hot pool from last year up top current one on bottom)


(CPC El nino forecast from last year




Anyway Ya get the picture

Quoting 53. wunderkidcayman:


That's actually 0.6�C not 0.7�C
Either way it's still cooler than last year same time when we had that massive hot pool and guess what that pool became cold
If anything I say stay the same for a bit then cools off back into neutral

And Scott needs to stop taking CFS word it fail to produce the El nino that it forecasted last year

I don't think CFS is getting it right just yet
Anyway I'll stick to what I said plus what CPC said about this El nino
It's too weak weird and late to change overall conditions

(Hot pool from last year up top current one on bottom)


(CPC El nino forecast from last year




Anyway Ya get the picture




CFSv2 is actually the lower of all the models so you can take the CFSv2 if you want as many models are now much higher that the CFSv2.
Quoting pablosyn:



I am impressed
Where you get that floater?
58. JRRP

here is the update
Quoting 56. hydrus:




Here comes the ramp up and I will wager that the GFS might have this pegged despite what same may think on here as the GFS being bogus. I don't think it is JMO.
60. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:

nice..
Quoting 58. JRRP:




That's the February update the March update is much higher on just about all the models from a month ago. Some of the increases are at 0.5C over last month. Those are significant increases and this has been the case now for 3 months straight with values increasing on every update.
62. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's the February update the March update is much higher on just about all the models from a month ago. Some of the increases are at 0.5C over last month. Those are significant increases and this has been the case now for 3 months straight with values increasing on every update.

Images last updated 2015-03-09 15:50:14
This thing is going to become a beast.

Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:

This thing is going to become a beast.




Yep, I think the GFS has this pegged. Remember GFS is usually pretty decent with storm intensity compared to the Euro. We saw this last summer in many cases.
Quoting 62. JRRP:


Images last updated 2015-03-09 15:50:14


From WSI?
Quoting 31. Naga5000:



And on the other side, the positive AO pushed a lot of older ice out through the Fram strait. No good.


Yeah, but for the sake of overall sea ice, I'd rather have a strong vortex hanging over Greenland & Baffin Bay, @ least trying to stabilize the generally decreasing sea ice in the far north Atlantic. IMO, the extreme uptick in the PDO since the culmination of the last big La Nina event is providing a great case study for anyone who's interested in studying north Pacific sea ice, to go from all-time record highs to record lows in concert w/ this kind of flip in the PDO that was brought about in part by last spring's massive downwelling KW, persistence of the abnormally large extratropical N Pac warm pool, & sudden AMO crash, in just a few short years is amazing to me...

I'm still trying to come up w/ some sort of viable, preliminary answer to the observed interdecadal increasing La Nina intensity/frequency in the 2000s. It may be some sort of internal resonance, variation of the IPO, etc, but what I notice is over a period of about 15-20 years, we observe a progressive increase in the ferocity (& even to an extent the longevity) of La Ninas, which then following the culmination of the strongest La Nina towards the end of the cycle, usually revert to a multi-year ENSO/El Nino event. Thereafter, the cycle subsequently begins anew w/ a relatively weaker La Nina event... This cyclical tendency is prevalent especially in the more reliable post-1950 MEI record, however I'm stumped why there was a huge slump in the 1920s-1940s...
If you look at the extended MEI from 1871-2005, & based on this premise of successively more intense La Ninas following multi year El Ninos (now I should mention this doesn't happen after every multi yr ENSO/El Nino), it would have been reasonable to assume once we had the 2005-06 La Nina, that larger & rather lengthy La Ninas were on the way for the remainder of the decade...



& sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Now we're likely facing a multi-yr El Nino following what appears to have been the deepest/longest La Nina since the mid 1970s...



This alleged 15-20 year periodicity is legitimate, a significant spectral peak showed up in the 15-20 yr band when I delved into looking @ the return period of La Ninas since the late 1800s...
I also highlighted a few key features in the various observed spectral peaks/mins



I've also tried to hunt down some literature that discusses this observed phenomena, but have had no luck, thus far anyway. Perhaps you (or anyone else for that matter) could offer some help? Thanks


Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:

Another HUGE increase on the NMME models which is updated by the IRI on March 19th. An incredible 0.5C rise from February from 1C to 1.5C by the end of Summer. Many models which were hovering at 1.2 or 1.3C are now 1.5C to 2.5C. Just incredible increases in all models which now all models show El-Nino intensifying this summer into moderate or strong categories.




Those forecasts are overdone (again), but conditions as a whole are more conducive for a slightly more intense event this year, but the southern hemisphere -PDO, & potential continued interference from the eastern hemisphere will put a cap on this El Nino's intensity .. I'm certainly a bit frustrated w/ the claims we're somehow in a modoki El Nino at the moment, it's quite obvious this is just the usual seasonal El Nino response....




The anomalous warm pool in the central Pacific has migrated about 15-20 degrees east over the last several months & is now closing in on the international dateline. It's nowhere near as large as the subsurface warmpool that emerged last spring, but that's a misnomer considering it rivaled the downwelling wave that preceded the 1997-98 El Nino.

Quoting 66. Webberweather53:



Yeah, but for the sake of overall sea ice, I'd rather have a strong vortex hanging over Greenland & Baffin Bay, @ least trying to stabilize the generally decreasing sea ice in the far north Atlantic. IMO, the extreme uptick in the PDO since the culmination of the last big La Nina event is providing a great case study for anyone who's interested in studying north Pacific sea ice, to go from all-time record highs to record lows in concert w/ this kind of flip in the PDO that was brought about in part by last spring's massive downwelling KW, persistence of the abnormally large extratropical N Pac warm pool, & sudden AMO crash, in just a few short years is amazing to me...

I'm still trying to come up w/ some sort of viable, preliminary answer to the observed interdecadal increasing La Nina intensity/frequency in the 2000s. It may be some sort of internal resonance, variation of the IPO, etc, but what I notice is over a period of about 15-20 years, we observe a progressive increase in the ferocity (& even to an extent the longevity) of La Ninas, which then following the culmination of the strongest La Nina towards the end of the cycle, usually revert to a multi-year ENSO/El Nino event. Thereafter, the cycle subsequently begins anew w/ a relatively weaker La Nina event... This cyclical tendency is prevalent especially in the more reliable post-1950 MEI record, however I'm stumped why there was a huge slump in the 1920s-1940s...
If you look at the extended MEI from 1871-2005, & based on this premise of successively more intense La Ninas following multi year El Ninos (now I should mention this doesn't happen after every multi yr ENSO/El Nino), it would have been reasonable to assume once we had the 2005-06 La Nina, that larger & rather lengthy La Ninas were on the way for the remainder of the decade...



& sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Now we're likely facing a multi-yr El Nino following what appears to have been the deepest/longest La Nina since the mid 1970s...



This alleged 15-20 year periodicity is legitimate, a significant spectral peak showed up in the 15-20 yr band when I delved into looking @ the return period of La Ninas since the late 1800s...
I also highlighted a few key features in the various observed spectral peaks/mins



I've also tried to hunt down some literature that discusses this observed phenomena, but have had no luck, thus far anyway. Perhaps you (or anyone else for that matter) could offer some help? Thanks




Those forecasts are overdone (again), but conditions as a whole are more conducive for a slightly more intense event this year, but the southern hemisphere -PDO, & potential continued interference from the eastern hemisphere will put a cap on this El Nino's intensity .. I'm certainly a bit frustrated w/ the claims we're somehow in a modoki El Nino at the moment, it's quite obvious this is just the usual seasonal El Nino response.... The anomalous warm pool in the central Pacific has migrated about 15-20 degrees east over the last several months & is now closing in on the international dateline. It's nowhere near as large as the subsurface warmpool that emerged last spring, but that's a misnomer considering it rivaled the downwelling wave that preceded the 1997-98 El Nino.




Hi Webberwather53, last year the models weren't this bullish on El-Nino intensity as they are this year.

Here's the update from May 2014. Models definitely seem to be seeing things differently compared to last year. All the hype about a strong El-Nino last year scientist as well as myself I never really realized the models were so weak with El-Nino even with the warm pool. This year same warm pool just as strong and different result with many models pushing 1.5 to 2.0C now. This never happened last year only with the Euro and CFSv2. Add to that the BOM has 2C anomalies as well so models must be seeing something different that you aren't seeing or most people for that matter.



Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:

This thing is going to become a beast.




No kidding, Teddy.
Bob,

Thank you for thank very well written post on the declining sea ice in the Arctic.

I do, however, recommend a small correction to you post. I believe that the current maximum IJIS Extent for 2015 occurred on February 15th when the value was 13,942,060 KM, rather than 13,931,097 Km2 on February 25th.

It is very alarming to consider the eventual impact, of Ice free summers in the Arctic Ocean, on global weather patterns. Sadly, that may well occur in the next few decades and the impacts may be devastating.


71. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


From WSI?

nop... that is Metoffice
Link
Quoting 53. wunderkidcayman:


That's actually 0.6�C not 0.7�C


Truly keen eyes will pick up a slightly darker shade of brown around 160-165 degrees west. Either that, or I'm having a minor stroke.
Twitternews on Pam (12z Euro):
Ryan Maue - @RyanMaue 4 Min ago.
ECMWF global model takes Tropical Cyclone Pam down to 906 mb during next 5-days as it moves east of Vanuatu.
Oops...mistake quote.
Quoting 70. OldLeatherneck:

Bob,

Thank you for thank very well written post on the declining sea ice in the Arctic.

I do, however, recommend a small correction to you post. I believe that the current maximum IJIS Extent for 2015 occurred on February 15th when the value was 13,942,060 KM, rather than 13,931,097 Km2 on February 25th.

It is very alarming to consider the eventual impact, of Ice free summers in the Arctic Ocean, on global weather patterns. Sadly, that may well occur in the next few decades and the impacts may be devastating.





Corrected! Thanks for the catch, OL. The earlier date makes the situation even more remarkable...
Quoting 66. Webberweather53:



Yeah, but for the sake of overall sea ice, I'd rather have a strong vortex hanging over Greenland & Baffin Bay, @ least trying to stabilize the generally decreasing sea ice in the far north Atlantic. IMO, the extreme uptick in the PDO since the culmination of the last big La Nina event is providing a great case study for anyone who's interested in studying north Pacific sea ice, to go from all-time record highs to record lows in concert w/ this kind of flip in the PDO that was brought about in part by last spring's massive downwelling KW, persistence of the abnormally large extratropical N Pac warm pool, & sudden AMO crash, in just a few short years is amazing to me...

I'm still trying to come up w/ some sort of viable, preliminary answer to the observed interdecadal increasing La Nina intensity/frequency in the 2000s. It may be some sort of internal resonance, variation of the IPO, etc, but what I notice is over a period of about 15-20 years, we observe a progressive increase in the ferocity (& even to an extent the longevity) of La Ninas, which then following the culmination of the strongest La Nina towards the end of the cycle, usually revert to a multi-year ENSO/El Nino event. Thereafter, the cycle subsequently begins anew w/ a relatively weaker La Nina event... This cyclical tendency is prevalent especially in the more reliable post-1950 MEI record, however I'm stumped why there was a huge slump in the 1920s-1940s...
If you look at the extended MEI from 1871-2005, & based on this premise of successively more intense La Ninas following multi year El Ninos (now I should mention this doesn't happen after every multi yr ENSO/El Nino), it would have been reasonable to assume once we had the 2005-06 La Nina, that larger & rather lengthy La Ninas were on the way for the remainder of the decade...



& sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Now we're likely facing a multi-yr El Nino following what appears to have been the deepest/longest La Nina since the mid 1970s...



This alleged 15-20 year periodicity is legitimate, a significant spectral peak showed up in the 15-20 yr band when I delved into looking @ the return period of La Ninas since the late 1800s...
I also highlighted a few key features in the various observed spectral peaks/mins



I've also tried to hunt down some literature that discusses this observed phenomena, but have had no luck, thus far anyway. Perhaps you (or anyone else for that matter) could offer some help? Thanks




Those forecasts are overdone (again), but conditions as a whole are more conducive for a slightly more intense event this year, but the southern hemisphere -PDO, & potential continued interference from the eastern hemisphere will put a cap on this El Nino's intensity .. I'm certainly a bit frustrated w/ the claims we're somehow in a modoki El Nino at the moment, it's quite obvious this is just the usual seasonal El Nino response....




The anomalous warm pool in the central Pacific has migrated about 15-20 degrees east over the last several months & is now closing in on the international dateline. It's nowhere near as large as the subsurface warmpool that emerged last spring, but that's a misnomer considering it rivaled the downwelling wave that preceded the 1997-98 El Nino.




This just came out in January and may be in line with what you are looking for. It is model based, but provides a real world explanation. At the very least, the cited material in the paper may open up a few new lanes of inquiry for you. If you can't access the paper through your university library, drop me a WU message:

"Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming"


"The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next."
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


Truly keen eyes will pick up a slightly darker shade of brown around 160-165 degrees west. Either that, or I'm having a minor stroke.

My eye are good I ain't blind
The darker shade of brown is
6 not 7
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This thing is going to become a beast.


Well that's really being modest
This thing with what the forecast shows its gonna be a monster ;)
Quoting 76. Naga5000:



This just came out in January and may be in line with what you are looking for. It is model based, but provides a real world explanation. At the very least, the cited material in the paper may open up a few new lanes of inquiry for you. If you can't access the paper through your university library, drop me a WU message:

"Increased frequency of extreme La Ni%uFFFDa events under greenhouse warming"


"The El Ni%uFFFDo/Southern Oscillation is Earth%u2019s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Ni%uFFFDo and La Ni%uFFFDa, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998%u20131999 extreme La Ni%uFFFDa event that followed the 1997%u20131998 extreme El Ni%uFFFDo event6 switched extreme El Ni%uFFFDo-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Ni%uFFFDa events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Ni%uFFFDo characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Ni%uFFFDa will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Ni%uFFFDa events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Ni%uFFFDo events are conducive to development of the extreme La Ni%uFFFDa events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Ni%uFFFDo events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next."



Opposite actually as the Earth warms the tendancy of El-Nino's increase due to the PDO staying positive more often than not. This was from Bob Henson a few weeks back if I'm not mistaken. He did a blog about this remember?

To come on and try to boost your claims for Global Warming off of La-Nina just doesn't have any base. Now if this switch to a positive PDO is indeed here then the Globe can expect the rapid effects of Global Warming go into overdrive.

Bob Henson's blog a few weeks back.
Link
PAM up to 55kts.

17P PAM 150309 1800 9.6S 170.4E SHEM 55 982
>> Snark alert <<..

Meanwhile the Sea Ice extent on our own Chesaapeake Bay reached a several decades maximum. The cold air
that should have been up in the arctic freezing them was FREEZING US!!

That said a highly ventilated and therefore less cold arctic isn't unprecedented, the fast that the pattern set up in late February put us on the path to a record low extent in early to mid March. Meanwhile my own little bay is melting out fast and the implications (unrelated to my bay) for arctic sea ice this summer are not good. They would still not be good if the extent were like last year's or the near normal maximum extent in 2012, followed by a record low late summer minimum extent.
Quoting 80. Tropicsweatherpr:

PAM up to 55kts.

17P PAM 150309 1800 9.6S 170.4E SHEM 55 982


IRI models updated Tropicsweatherpr and it looks this El-Nino is the lost one of 2014 that many scientist thought would happen then but appears may happen this Summer.
Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:



Opposite actually as the Earth warms the tendancy of El-Nino's increase due to the PDO staying positive more often than not. This was from Bob Henson a few weeks back if I'm not mistaken. He did a blog about this remember?


This is talking about the frequency of "Extreme" events and not just any la nina/el nino event. A slight, but important semantic issue. Yes, more el-nino's are likely to occur, this study found that while that holds true, 75% of the modeled extreme la nina events occurred in the year following an extreme el-nino.
Deep cyclone "Denis" (966mb) is currently passing Scotland, producing gales up to 193km/h = 120 mph and some decent convection to boot.




Source Meteociel.fr for updates.


(Saved loop.) "Denis" in the upper left corner, cut-off low in the lower right corner south of Italy in the Ionian Sea, with a northern front which is dumping more snow onto the Balkans. Estofex: The low in the Ionian Sea "is bound by a region of moderate wind shear at its eastern flank, veering with height in lower levels along the eastern half of a stationary occlusion front/convergence line between Crete and southern Italy (SREH of 200-300 m/s in GFS south of Greece). This can organize storms into supercells with large hail as primary threat. The persistence of the convergence line and some modest CAPE can lead to local excessive convective rainfall."
Quoting 83. Naga5000:



This is talking about the frequency of "Extreme" events and not just any la nina/el nino event. A slight, but important semantic issue. Yes, more el-nino's are likely to occur, this study found that while that holds true, 75% of the modeled extreme la nina events occurred in the year following an extreme el-nino.


Correct but i doubt we get an extreme El-nino this year. Moderate I would say is definite but could go strong just not extreme. I think our Basin hasn't been the same since the Super La-Nina of 2010/2011 infact its added so much stability that it would take a good couple of years to fully recover.
Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:





To come on and try to boost your claims for Global Warming off of La-Nina just doesn't have any base.

Bob Henson's blog a few weeks back.
Link


I wasn't coming to "try and boost my claims of global warming", I was answering a specific question another blogger aimed at me regarding la nina events.

Frankly, I don't need to make any claims regarding global warming, the evidence is quite clear. However, as Weber mentioned there is also observations that show an increase in strong La Nina's, which the research supports as well through an explanation that both fits into modeling scenarios and is explained through a mechanism consistent with global warming. Again to cite the abstract:

"This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next."
From WSI.

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The strongest ever observed March RMM Phase 7 amplitude of 3.85 was back in 1997. That # could be rivaled next week.


Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:

This thing is going to become a beast.


Rapid Intensification?
STORM WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 09/1907 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2
SOUTH 170.4 EAST AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 9.2S 170.4E AT 091800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 101800 UTC.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALIBA (12-20142015)
22:00 PM RET March 9 2015
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba (995 hPa) located at 22.4S 55.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity T2.0/2.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 23.5S 56.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 24.1S 56.9E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 25.2S 58.6E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 27.8S 62.9E - 35 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
===================
Haliba has weakened, the last ASCAT data 1735z show the strongest winds in the southern semi-circle. Cloud pattern had rapidly deteriorate at the end of the afternoon, as the system experiences a severe impact of the west northwesterly vertical wind shear, but deep convection seem to rebuild in the last hours.

The system is expected to keep on tracking globally southeastwards within a west to westerly steering flow driven by the low to mid-level near equatorial highs.

Tuesday, the system should slow down and experiencing by that time some deep structure changes with a larger and more asymmetrical wind fields suggesting that the system may loose its pure tropical characteristics.

Thursday, the system should resume its southeastwards track with the end of extratrop process.

Given the ongoing and expected impact of this system over portions of the Mascarenes islands, inhabitant of this area should still monitor the progress of this system
Quoting 72. LongIslandBeaches:



Truly keen eyes will pick up a slightly darker shade of brown around 160-165 degrees west. Either that, or I'm having a minor stroke.

That is correct. If you zoom in it is a green color, 7+
Quoting 83. Naga5000:



This is talking about the frequency of "Extreme" events and not just any la nina/el nino event. A slight, but important semantic issue. Yes, more el-nino's are likely to occur, this study found that while that holds true, 75% of the modeled extreme la nina events occurred in the year following an extreme el-nino.


Naga are you thinking the same thing Dr. Schnell was talking about and predictions he made????
Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:

This thing is going to become a beast.



874mb from the GFS and 906mb from the ECMWF. One of few times we'll probably see agreement for a pressure that low several days in advance.
I'm on spring break, it's 85 with a fresh breeze, and I'm loving it!

This is what's great about living in Florida, returning home for spring break means returning home to one of the most traveled places for spring break, the difference is students are willing to pay hundreds to do so, while I conveniently stay at my parents house for free :)
Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:



Correct but i doubt we get an extreme El-nino this year. Moderate I would say is definite but could go strong just not extreme. I think our Basin hasn't been the same since the Super La-Nina of 2010/2011 infact its added so much stability that it would take a good couple of years to fully recover.
How a La nina event add stability over the atlantic?
I thought La nina favors active atlantic MDR?
I'm trying to learn. :(
Nice and active South Pacific - Southern Hemisphere summer tropical storm season at the moment:

Pam in the South Pacific

Floater One AVN Enanced image
Haliba in the South Indian Ocean:
Floater One AVN Enanced image
97W in the West Pac:
Floater One AVN Enanced image

Umm, tropical strom Haliba obviously had a quite wet impact on La Reunion today:


09-03-2015 Passage de la tempête tropicale Haliba
Quoting 82. StormTrackerScott:



IRI models updated Tropicsweatherpr and it looks this El-Nino is the lost one of 2014 that many scientist thought would happen then but appears may happen this Summer.
Do you have a pic of last year Kelvin wave vs this year?
Here is the Big Picture show with all the systems in the Southern Hemisphere at the moment as of 3:00 PM EST:

Can't get it to load..................Here is the link.................. :)



Quoting 99. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the Big Picture show with all the systems in the Southern Hemisphere at the moment as of 3:00 PM EST:






A guy with a fish?

Quoting 100. yonzabam:



A guy with a fish?


http://www.yr.no/satellitt/verda.html
Quoting 98. Gearsts:

Do you have a pic of last year Kelvin wave vs this year?


3/4/2014


3/4/2015
Quoting 93. TropicalAnalystwx13:


874mb from the GFS and 906mb from the ECMWF. One of few times we'll probably see agreement for a pressure that low several days in advance.
So both models show a category 5 or near category 5 equivalent hurricane/tropical cyclone (:^O.............................................. ........................ Okay.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY ONE (11F)
6:00 AM FST March 10 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category One (987 hPa) located at 9.2S 170.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved in the past 24 hours with primary band trying to wrap around suppose low level circulation center. Convection remains persistent. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.75 wrap yields DT=3.0, MET and PAT agrees

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and gradually move it southeastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 9.8S 170.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 10.4S 170.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 12.1S 171.2EE - 70 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting 34. Naga5000:




Edited: Original post was removed


thats funny :)
Quoting 93. TropicalAnalystwx13:


874mb from the GFS and 906mb from the ECMWF. One of few times we'll probably see agreement for a pressure that low several days in advance.


It has to get down to 889 mb to beat the record for the strongest southern hemisphere cyclone, cyclone Zoe (890 mb) in the Pacific in December 2002.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS AND IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY
HAVE POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...IF NOT LONGER. PLEASE CHECK
THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Sun is up on Pam..
Quoting 87. StormTrackerScott:
From WSI.

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The strongest ever observed March RMM Phase 7 amplitude of 3.85 was back in 1997. That # could be rivaled next week.




I still say the GFS is drunk.

guys dont for get Typhoon Haiyan may be the strongest storm on earth but we will never no the true mb of the storm has we have no hurricane hunter
Quoting 109. TimSoCal:



I still say the GFS is drunk.




Lots of similarities to this MJO to the one back in March 1997 which spurred the 1997/1998 Super El-Nino. I don't think we get an El-Nino that strong but its quite interesting to see all of these models at or over 2C which these values were not modeled by the NMME last year.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


3/4/2014


3/4/2015


Can you post the one for late March and Early April of last year
Quoting 93. TropicalAnalystwx13:


874mb from the GFS and 906mb from the ECMWF. One of few times we'll probably see agreement for a pressure that low several days in advance.


919 mb from UKMET

SH, 17, 2015030912, 03, UKM, 114, 233S, 1751E, 83, 919
Looks like it's over 8-900 miles wide already!
Beautiful first visual with sunlight
Look at it like this if you live in California you better hope this MJO can deliver as this has the potential to spur a Stronger El-nino and remember the stronger the El-Nino the more rain will fall in California starting in the Fall. Again nothing is definite but things maybe looking up for those in California that have been in a serious drought for years now. My fear however is there will be many fires to contend with before we even get to the Fall months.
Fire
So Fig. 1 shows the ice sheet varies between roughly 3 to 15 million km^2 with average ~ 9 10^6 km^2. 450,000 km^2 of 9 10^6 km^2 is about 5%. In Engineering terms, plus minus 5% is within margin of error. a few more months will be needed to see if there is continue increase.
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys dont for get Typhoon Haiyan may be the strongest storm on earth but we will never no the true mb of the storm has we have no hurricane hunter

Taz, you're not making any sense.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
405 PM CDT Monday Mar 9 2015

Short term...
a Pacific jet wrapping around an upper level trough digging south
across Texas and Mexico is sending a surge of moisture into the Gulf
Coast region. Local radiosonde observation from this morning showed a dramatic
increase in column moisture content with precipitation water value doubling
to over 1.5 inches in just 12 hours. This value is in the 90th
percentile for this time of year based on Storm Prediction Center sounding climatology
Page.
Surface dewpoints have come up quite a bit as well with 60 degree
dewpoints now almost up to mcb. Latest radar scans showing quite a
bit of shower activity moving inland from Gulf waters east of a hum
to btr line. Over the next 6 to 8 hours...mesoscale models show this
activity will gradually shift eastward with the large swath
currently over East Texas nudging into western portions of the near
Baton Rouge. There will be a marginal threat for isolated
strong/severe thunderstorms overnight
as well. Model soundings show
some middle level drying with low level saturation and the possibility
of surface based storms. Main threat looks to be strong downburst winds
but hail and tornado can/T be ruled out
with some directional shear
in place.

Regional radars show quite a bit of shower activity still to the
west of the County Warning Area across eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. This
activity should shift eastward and over the County Warning Area. Uncertainty comes
in as to where exactly the swath of heavier precipitation will pass over.
Some models show over btr area and others east closer to the
Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans.
Either way...most if not all
of the County Warning Area will see some rain and have thus increased probability of precipitation to 100
percent.

The aforementioned upper level trough will gradually track southeast
from its current location to near the Texas/Mexico/Gulf intersection
by Thursday. Through this time...impulses along the jet will bring
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the County Warning Area through Thursday
night. Rainfall totals through this period still look to be on the
order of 3 to 5 inches
.
Finally some snow for Iditarod mushers
Associated Press 10:20 a.m. PDT March 9, 2015
FAIRBANKS, Alaska (AP) - Winter has finally cooperated with the Iditarod.
More than four inches of new snowfall greeted Stan Hooley, the chief executive officer of the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, when he arrived in Fairbanks on Sunday, a day before the competitive race begins.
"Seems a little bit more like the Iditarod when you actually have some snow around," said Hooley.
Warm temperatures have played havoc with the Iditarod all winter long as the same stalled jet stream that buried the eastern seaboard in snow has left Alaska unseasonable warm and dry. Officials last month decided conditions in the Alaska Range were so poor because of a lack of snow that the competitive start would be moved over the mountain range to Fairbanks.
That wasn't the only change officials were considering, and the ceremonial start in Anchorage could have been moved to Fairbanks, as well, also because of the weather.
"It was closer than I'd like to admit, yeah," he said. "We like to tell people the Iditarod will never be canceled, and it wouldn't. But the possibility of the ceremonial start needing to be moved as well, was very real."
The temperature of 14 degrees and light snow in Fairbanks Sunday morning were very different from the conditions mushers faced in Anchorage a day before, when it was 40 degrees and rainy. Municipality of Anchorage crews trucked in snow so mushers could travel downtowns streets for the ceremonial start, but Hooley said if the event had gone on another hour, that all would have been melted away. ...

Whole article see link above.


(Photo: Bob Hallinen, AP)

Good night with this from Germany!
123. txjac
The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of southeast Texas... including the following
counties... Austin... Brazos... Burleson... Colorado... Fort Bend...
Grimes... Harris... Houston... Jackson... Madison... Montgomery...
Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington
and Wharton.

* Until 1 am CDT Tuesday

* periods of showers with isolated thunderstorms will be capable
of producing occasional moderate to heavy rainfall. This rain
will be falling over some locations where the ground has already
been saturated from the steady rainfall the past couple of
days. Additional training of moderate to heavy rainfall could
runoff and lead to some flooding of streets... creeks and bayous.

* In addition to what has already fallen... another 1 to 3 inches
is possible
through this evening with localized higher amounts.
Areas generally from the coast near the Matagorda and Sargent
areas northward to the Houston area to the Huntsville area to
Crockett will probably see the better chances of heavier
precipitation. As the evening and overnight hours progress...
expect rains to come to an end from west to east.

Received about an 1" or so yesterday, up to about 1.75" for today and possible to get 1"-3" more
Pretty sloppy, slurppy, mess out there.
124. txjac
Record broken


... New record for daily maximum rainfall set at College Station...

A new record rainfall of 2.87 inches was set at College Station today.
This breaks the previous record of 1.73 inches set in 1913.
Cyclone Pam.

Quoting barbamz:
Finally some snow for Iditarod mushers
Associated Press 10:20 a.m. PDT March 9, 2015
FAIRBANKS, Alaska (AP) - Winter has finally cooperated with the Iditarod.
More than four inches of new snowfall greeted Stan Hooley, the chief executive officer of the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, when he arrived in Fairbanks on Sunday, a day before the competitive race begins.
"Seems a little bit more like the Iditarod when you actually have some snow around," said Hooley.
Warm temperatures have played havoc with the Iditarod all winter long as the same stalled jet stream that buried the eastern seaboard in snow has left Alaska unseasonable warm and dry. Officials last month decided conditions in the Alaska Range were so poor because of a lack of snow that the competitive start would be moved over the mountain range to Fairbanks.
That wasn't the only change officials were considering, and the ceremonial start in Anchorage could have been moved to Fairbanks, as well, also because of the weather.
"It was closer than I'd like to admit, yeah," he said. "We like to tell people the Iditarod will never be canceled, and it wouldn't. But the possibility of the ceremonial start needing to be moved as well, was very real."
The temperature of 14 degrees and light snow in Fairbanks Sunday morning were very different from the conditions mushers faced in Anchorage a day before, when it was 40 degrees and rainy. Municipality of Anchorage crews trucked in snow so mushers could travel downtowns streets for the ceremonial start, but Hooley said if the event had gone on another hour, that all would have been melted away. ...

Whole article see link above.


(Photo: Bob Hallinen, AP)

Good night with this from Germany!


Alaska is currently experiencing some very cold weather. They just needed to wait a little longer.

WU has 77 for today here and it is showing 76.2F currently....

The rain is coming...
Forecast for Fairbanks Alaska. Finally a little more Winter like for them.

Today Mostly cloudy with flurries in the morning...then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Highs zero to 10 above. West winds to 10 mph.

Tonight Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers in the evening...then decreasing clouds with isolated snow showers after midnight. Lows 10 to 20 below. West winds to 10 mph.

Tuesday Partly sunny. Highs 5 below to 5 above. Light winds.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 25 below. Light winds.


Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs 5 below to 5 above. Light winds.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows around 20 below.

Thursday And Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Lows around 20 below.

Friday And Friday Night Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Lows 15 to 20 below.
Quoting jpsb:


Extreme El Nino .... Global Warming
Extreme La Nina .... Global Warming
Record heat ...... Global Warming
Record cold ...... Global Warming
More hurricanes ..... Global Warming
Few hurricanes ...... Global Warming
Extreme rain ...... Global Warming
No rain .................. Global Warming
Increasing sea ice ..... Global Warming
Decreasing sea ice .... Global Warming
Record snow falls ..... Global Warming
No snow .......... Global Warming


I wonder if maybe strong winds have anything to do with Arctic Sea Ice or the lack thereof.

Perhaps. Like your chart.
Edited, original post removed.
Quoting 126. jpsb:



Extreme El Nino .... Global Warming
Extreme La Nina .... Global Warming
Record heat ...... Global Warming
Record cold ...... Global Warming
More hurricanes ..... Global Warming
Few hurricanes ...... Global Warming
Extreme rain ...... Global Warming
No rain .................. Global Warming
Increasing sea ice ..... Global Warming
Decreasing sea ice .... Global Warming
Record snow falls ..... Global Warming
No snow .......... Global Warming


I wonder if maybe strong winds have anything to do with Arctic Sea Ice or the lack thereof.



Change the word global warming with climate change...
Quoting 130. Sfloridacat5:

Forecast for Fairbanks Alaska. Finally a little more Winter like for them.

Today Mostly cloudy with flurries in the morning...then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Highs zero to 10 above. West winds to 10 mph.

Tonight Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers in the evening...then decreasing clouds with isolated snow showers after midnight. Lows 10 to 20 below. West winds to 10 mph.

Tuesday Partly sunny. Highs 5 below to 5 above. Light winds.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 25 below. Light winds.


Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs 5 below to 5 above. Light winds.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows around 20 below.

Thursday And Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Lows around 20 below.

Friday And Friday Night Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Lows 15 to 20 below.


Winter sorta arrived in Anchorage too. Woke up to single digits. It's in the teens and should be around zero tonight.
Quoting jpsb:


Extreme El Nino .... Global Warming
Extreme La Nina .... Global Warming
Record heat ...... Global Warming
Record cold ...... Global Warming
More hurricanes ..... Global Warming
Few hurricanes ...... Global Warming
Extreme rain ...... Global Warming
No rain .................. Global Warming
Increasing sea ice ..... Global Warming
Decreasing sea ice .... Global Warming
Record snow falls ..... Global Warming
No snow .......... Global Warming


I wonder if maybe strong winds have anything to do with Arctic Sea Ice or the lack thereof.
You're getting close to the truth, though you're not quite there. To simplify things for your understanding, think of it this way: every single weather or climate event that occurs nowadays is taking place in an atmosphere supercharged by the four million tons of heat-trapping CO2 we humans suck out of the planet and pump into it every hour of every day. Some of those events are affected in small, imperceptible ways; others are affected in large and measurable ways. But they're all affected in one way or another. Some of those affects have long been predicted by climate scientists: heavier precipitation events, deeper droughts, shrinking ice caps, and so on. Others are coming as a surprise. But what *isn't* a surprise to anyone who's bothered studying is that the climate paradigm has shifted, and will continue to do so.

Everything is affected.

Everything...
Hi,
I'm a bit late in on this one but it seems that all is going along as predicted!
Thanks Bob Henson for the update as to where the cold should be and in reality where it really is.

More later no doubt as I have to have a bit of a chance to analyse the data and the possibilities of it all!

Then again its about +20/C here in my zone, so as an impartial observer, I would not have the time to wonder what the problem is!
Good job I am not an impartial observer?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Look at it like this if you live in California you better hope this MJO can deliver as this has the potential to spur a Stronger El-nino and remember the stronger the El-Nino the more rain will fall in California starting in the Fall. Again nothing is definite but things maybe looking up for those in California that have been in a serious drought for years now. My fear however is there will be many fires to contend with before we even get to the Fall months.



we can hop for a good wet monosoon season
139. txjac
Quoting 137. hydrus:




How much rain have you gotten? Looks like you have a lot more coming through.
Mine is tapering off and should be done soon
And Ped, you know I feel guilty posting about my rain ...sorry
Pam is beginning to take on a quicker rate of intensification. Big structural changes in the past few hours.



Latest microwave pass shows a ragged eye. Some dry air in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone:

Quoting 138. Tazmanian:



we can hop for a good wet monosoon season


Or a tropical storm, but I'd really rather we don't put out eggs in those baskets.
Flash flood warnings issued in East Texas:



FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC005-073-347-401-100230-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.W.0002.150309T2240Z-150310T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LUFKIN...DIBOLL...
NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NACOGDOCHES...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RUSK...JACKSONVILLE...
RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HENDERSON...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 527 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED MINOR FLOODING
FROM PREVIOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG COUNTY ROAD 3303
JUST WEST OF JACKSONVILLE TEXAS. THE RAIN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH WITH MORE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 930 PM CDT THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED RAINFALL OF ONE TO UP TO TWO INCHES WILL SATURATE THE
GROUND AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AS WATER RUNS OFF MORE QUICKLY
AFFECTING ROADS...DITCHES...AND STREAMS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM WEST OF JACKSONVILLE TO DIBOLL TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUDSON...FOREST...WELLS...MORRILL...POLLOK...ALTO. ..HUNTINGTON...
REESE...DOUGLASS...MOUNT SELMAN...PONTA...ETOILE...SACUL...WODEN...
MIXON...NEW SALEM...TRAWICK...MELROSE...MARTINSVILLE...GARRISO N...
MINDEN AND PINEHILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
143. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu.
Sat type:: Low clouds/fog
subject:: As stated yesterday 20150308 ml-d's innermost AOI interacts with LOW/Front Ca, chances of seeing a mini AtmosRiver rises 33%-66%, ml-d's innermost AOI does NOT interact with LOW/front that RRR(triple Rs or Quad Rs) out west rises and blocks the plume of moisture.
http://youtu.be/LQkAsEzxx_s(600x320 as below)




This might be a dumb question but if we do get an el-nino, what does that mean here in Florida, less rain? dry conditions? more rain and wetter? less tropical activity? etc.
Quoting 126. jpsb:



Extreme El Nino .... Global Warming
Extreme La Nina .... Global Warming
Record heat ...... Global Warming
Record cold ...... Global Warming
More hurricanes ..... Global Warming
Few hurricanes ...... Global Warming
Extreme rain ...... Global Warming
No rain .................. Global Warming
Increasing sea ice ..... Global Warming
Decreasing sea ice .... Global Warming
Record snow falls ..... Global Warming
No snow .......... Global Warming


I wonder if maybe strong winds have anything to do with Arctic Sea Ice or the lack thereof.



I think that you have it backwards.

Global warming => more or worse extreme weather events

is not at all logically equivalent to

more or worse extreme weather events => global warming

Using the global average temperature trend is a more direct, accurate and reliable method of gauging global warming than trying to determine it through la nia events, El Nio events, and local weather extremes.

Global warming has been verified regardless of those local events, so of course global warming is real regardless of those local events, or the lack of those local events. This doesn't mean that people are trying to use those events as a primary way to verify global warming. It has been verified regardless.
Quoting 139. txjac:



How much rain have you gotten? Looks like you have a lot more coming through.
Mine is tapering off and should be done soon
And Ped, you know I feel guilty posting about my rain ...sorry
Not sure about of the amount, the ice put cracks in my rain gauge. Rain had arrived in short heavy periods. I will check the rainfall amounts for the past 30 days. It is very wet here, and if the forecast comes to fruition , we will have watches and warnings posted for Mid TN. I am seeing quite a few states that may have flooding problems....Interesting weather T.J...:)
95p.interesting
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
This might be a dumb question but if we do get an el-nino, what does that mean here in Florida, less rain? dry conditions? more rain and wetter? less tropical activity? etc.


More rain, colder Fall and Winter with an uptick in severe weather. Less tropical activity with a stronger East trough all Summer.
Quoting 140. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pam is beginning to take on a quicker rate of intensification. Big structural changes in the past few hours.



Latest microwave pass shows a ragged eye. Some dry air in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone:



Based on where all the convection is, I don't think that is a true eye, at least not yet. It looks slightly displaced to the north of the actual circulation center. Regardless, Pam is beginning to organize at a pretty good clip right now.

Was thinking that but wasn't sure, Thanks.
Quoting weatherbro:


More rain, colder Fall and Winter with an uptick in severe weather. Less tropical activity with a stronger East trough all Summer.
Pam is definitely getting bigger, fatter, and uglier. I bet she'll be a Cat 1 cyclone by the next update.
Quoting 149. Grothar:





If you squint and look at PAM(SH17) it looks like the choice word many of us will use if CHPS verifies :S
Quoting 152. 1900hurricane:


Based on where all the convection is, I don't think that is a true eye, at least not yet. It looks slightly displaced to the north of the actual circulation center. Regardless, Pam is beginning to organize at a pretty good clip right now.


Plot twist. We wake up to Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam next morning..... *evil laughing* >:D
I'm surprised 95P hasn't been upgraded yet. The next name on the list is Nathan.

Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Plot twist. We wake up to Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam next morning..... *evil laughing* >:D

You made me laugh.
Don't think it'll intensify that quickly.
Quoting 152. 1900hurricane:


Based on where all the convection is, I don't think that is a true eye, at least not yet. It looks slightly displaced to the north of the actual circulation center. Regardless, Pam is beginning to organize at a pretty good clip right now.


What I'm most astonished with so far with Pam is how big she is so close to the equator.
Quoting 156. CybrTeddy:
I'm surprised 95P hasn't been upgraded yet. The next name on the list is Nathan.



Really gets cranking in those last 2 frames. That's a tropical cyclone.

Quoting 159. Gearsts:


Can't believe how consistently the GFS is making this the most powerful cyclone ever recorded.
South swell for Hawaii, California and possibly even the Aleutians? Will be interesting to see where the waves go.

Quoting 114. Abacosurf:

Looks like it's over 8-900 miles wide already!
Beautiful first visual with sunlight

Quoting 149. Grothar:






Thought SH17 said something else...
If Pam turns into what the GFS makes it, we'll probably be saying "something else" :P
Quoting Gearsts:


Looking at the latest IR frames..

164. txjac
I'm up to 2.25" so far for the day.
The only thing that could have made this better for me would have been some thunder and lightening
Every time I think its gonna stop, it picks up a bit.
But really should be over soon
165. txjac
Seems odd to not see sar and Grothar imparting their wisdom ...
Maybe sar will actually get some rain?
Peripheral sea ice is generally a poor indicator of sea ice health. The last two years were proof that summer weather over the arctic determines the ice state in the fall. We have gained a lot of volume over the past 2 years, lets see if we can make that 3.
Those islands must be getting some really strong gusts and heavy rain. I hope none of the islands get the eye..This will be a violent cyclone..

Quoting 159. Gearsts:




yawn... ill be impressed if it gets beneath 800mb
;)
Kudos to GFS as it looks like the forecast of an intense cyclone is going to pan out taking out the sub 800,s mbs scenario so is not too bad.


this is vanuatus capital



this is pam, with the eye just a few miles east
Quoting 168. nwobilderburg:



yawn... ill be impressed if it gets beneath 800mb
;)
You mean like the Gulf of Mexico storm in my dream the other night?
That is about intense as they come. Just a'waitin for the eye.

SATCON: MSLP = 984 hPa MSW = 61 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 62.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 59 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 260 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 987 hPa 59 knots Scene: CDO Date: MAR091930
CIMSS AMSU: 983 hPa 67 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 03091800
SSMIS: 983 hPa 64 knots Date: 03091855
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA knots Tmax: NA

Quoting 171. nwobilderburg:



this is vanuatus capital



this is pam, with the eye just a few miles east



The city's Port Vila.
I feel confident this will be increased.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002
WTPS31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY




LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.2S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.

WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy · 4h 4 hours ago

Another fascinating tidbit- the AO index hit 3 sigma, the 2nd highest March value dating back to 1948. #1 was in 1997
180. 882MB
Pam continues to intensify, truly a monster in the making, wont surprise me if Pam goes under RI. On the other hand 95P looks better organized, but probably wont intensify that quickly due to Pam's outflow. Maybe until 2 to 3 days from now, when Pam is farther away.



Pam





95P



No surprise.PAM up to 65kts.

17P PAM 150310 0000 9.8S 170.5E SHEM 65 974
Eric Blake EricBlake12
Can't believe Twitter isn't buzzing at all about the March ECMWF monthly fcsts- even more anomalous than 1 y ago leading to super Nino hype
NAM show parts of Eastern Texas and Louisiana getting heavy rain in the next 84 hours..GFS has TN getting heavy rain.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALIBA (12-20142015)
4:00 AM RET March 10 2015
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba (995 hPa) located at 23.1S 55.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 24.0S 56.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 24.4S 57.1E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 25.2S 59.8E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 29.3S 66.7E - 35 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The last ASCAT data 1735z show the strongest winds in the southern semi-circle. Deep convection has rebuild during the night near the center, but the system experiences always a moderate the west northwesterly vertical wind shear, expected to strengthen during the day.

The system is expected to keep on tracking globally southeastwards within a west to westerly steering flow driven by the low to mid-level near equatorial highs.

Tuesday, the system should slow down and experiencing by that time some deep structure changes with a larger and more asymmetrical wind fields suggesting that the system may loose its pure tropical characteristics on Wednesday.

Thursday, the system should resume its southeastwards track with the end of extratrop process.

Given the ongoing and expected impact of this system over portions of the Mascarenes islands, inhabitant of this area should still monitor the progress of this system.
The Euro has more cold for New England.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY TWO (11F)
12:00 PM FST March 10 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 9.7S 170.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 nautical miles of center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved in the past 24 hours with primary band wrapping around suppose low level circulation center. Convection remains persistent with cloud tops cooling and increasing in radial extent. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C

Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap yields DT=3.5, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models continue to move it southeastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 10.1S 170.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 10.7S 171.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.0S 171.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
A possible new world record all-time greatest 24-hour snowfall of 8.40 feet / 2.56 meters is being reported in Capracotta, Italy, where that much snow reportedly fell during an 18-hour period on March 5, 2015. The claim is being investigated.

Link
Quoting 182. Gearsts:
Eric Blake EricBlake12
Can't believe Twitter isn't buzzing at all about the March ECMWF monthly fcsts- even more anomalous than 1 y ago leading to super Nino hype


It's not just the Euro its damm near every model now. CFSv2 is on the lower side of intensity compared to the rest of the pack.
192. beell
Imagine a system the size of PAM in the Gulf of Mexico. It would fit-just barely
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:44 AM EST March 10 2015
=====================================
At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 12.5S 149.6E or 570 kilometers northeast of Cooktown and 580 kilometers east northeast of Cape Melville has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction while intensifying over the next couple of days.

GALES are expected to extend out to approximately 170 kilometers from the center and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 12.8S 148.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 13.2S 148.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 13.8S 146.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 13.2S 146.8E- 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
====================
The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea has developed significantly in the last 24 hours with convection solidly building near the estimated low level center overnight. Easterly vertical wind shear across the low appears to be confining most of the convection on the westward side of the system. Low level cloud lines also appear to have improved in the last 24 hours.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.4 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT are 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT based on DT as it appears fairly clear. The descending ASCAT image at 2340UTC indicates an area of gales in the northeast quadrant. The location accuracy of the system is rated as poor, though there was a 37GHz SSMI-S microwave image at 2147UTC that provided some guidance towards the location of the low level center.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next couple under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should slow the westwards movement of the system.

The tropical low should continue to intensify into Wednesday as it moves into a more favorable environment for further development with lowering vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29C. At this stage, the low is rated as a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Coen to Cape Tribulation
For my money the PAM situation is interesting.
The endless El Nino speculation is boring.
Just my personal opinion.
Carry on.
196. beell
At least some dry air from the north wrapping into the west side of the center.



Quoting Gearsts:
Eric Blake EricBlake12
Can't believe Twitter isn't buzzing at all about the March ECMWF monthly fcsts- even more anomalous than 1 y ago leading to super Nino hype


"Fool me once.." logic I'd assume.
Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:


"Fool me once.." logic I'd assume.


What about the rest of the models that are mirroring the Euro?

Huge jump from February. These models will update on March 19th on the IRI site.



From the Aussie's

Quoting 196. beell:

At least some dry air from the north wrapping into the west side of the center.




I know that's not actually an eye already trying to clear out in the middle of all that convection there?!
Quoting txjac:
Seems odd to not see sar and Grothar imparting their wisdom ...
Maybe sar will actually get some rain?
I don't know about wisdom but I do know I haven't gotten the first drop of rain. The column has been much too dry in east Alabama and it's only starting to get moistened up now. We should get some light rain after midnight but nothing like you've gotten over you way, tx. The systems are a little slow than forecast yesterday and the Gulf fetch just isn't doing well this far east. AI think the main area of rain starts to shift out of Texas by morning and move NE toward TN, but this solution doesn't leave much of anything left for me. Maybe the Thursday/Friday low, which should develop along the boundary, will treat me better.

The projected path of Pam is about the best we can hope for with a cyclone this large. It looks like the storm is going to follow the long Fiji reach between Fiji and Vanuatu. That puts most of the storm over an area that's less inhabited than if it had a more easterly or westerly track. The people of Vanuatu have long experience dealing with cyclones and the islands, being volcanic, all have some high ground to serve as a refuge. Most of the islanders have good weather eyes. As long as they stay off the water until Pam passes, the loss of life should be minimized. At least Pam looks like it won't be a direct hit like we saw with Lusi last year. Once Pam is south of Fiji, the storm will head into open water and should start to weaken. Godspeed to everyone in the path.
201. flsky
Second that. Looks like a bad one.

Quoting 200. sar2401:

I don't know about wisdom but I do know I haven't gotten the first drop of rain. The column has been much too dry in east Alabama and it's only starting to get moistened up now. We should get some light rain after midnight but nothing like you've gotten over you way, tx. The systems are a little slow than forecast yesterday and the Gulf fetch just isn't doing well this far east. AI think the main area of rain starts to shift out of Texas by morning and move NE toward TN, but this solution doesn't leave much of anything left for me. Maybe the Thursday/Friday low, which should develop along the boundary, will treat me better.

The projected path of Pam is about the best we can hope for with a cyclone this large. It looks like the storm is going to follow the long Fiji reach between Fiji and Vanuatu. That puts most of the storm over an area that's less inhabited than if it had a more easterly or westerly track. The people of Vanuatu have long experience dealing with cyclones and the islands, being volcanic, all have some high ground to serve as a refuge. Most of the islanders have good weather eyes. As long as they stay off the water until Pam passes, the loss of life should be minimized. At least Pam looks like it won't be a direct hit like we saw with Lusi last year. Once Pam is south of Fiji, the storm will head into open water and should start to weaken. Godspeed to everyone in the path.
JTWC peak intensity up to 130kts.



That southern stream shortwave is apparently what the ECMWF thought would become a subtropical storm in the Gulf five or six days ago. That forecast was never going to verify anyway, but there's still some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF whether or not the system develops a surface low before moving into Louisiana Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The ECMWF still shows the southern end of the trough developing a highly broad and diffuse surface low, with some concentrated cyclonic turning noted on that model's 850 mb vorticity fields as the system approaches the coast. The GFS shows a more strung out feature, with an elongated and widespread area of lower-tropospheric vorticity and moisture riding up along the southern end of the amplifying trough. It's hard to choose which model is correct, but climatology would favor the GFS; the upper-level winds are usually still fairly strong this time of year, which would likely inhibit any large-scale amplification of the trough over the Gulf, and also prevent any stalling of the southern end of the trough. We should watch the evolution of the trough carefully to determine whether we get a broad surface low, or it remains strung out like the GFS suggests. I think the best thing to do right now is to take a blend of the two models, with a slight bias toward the GFS until the evolution of the trough becomes more clear.

Either way, a multi-day period of heavy rainfall is on top for the Louisiana/Mississippi area. Very unusual for March to have a disturbance coming up from the south.
Daaaaaaaamn:

Partial microwave pass from 45 minutes ago; looks like some dislocation of the low- and mid-level centers and some dry air.

207. vis0

Quoting 126. jpsb:


Extreme El Nino .... Global Warming
Extreme La Nina .... Global Warming
Record heat ...... Global Warming
Record cold ...... Global Warming
More hurricanes ..... Global Warming
Few hurricanes ...... Global Warming
Extreme rain ...... Global Warming
No rain .................. Global Warming
Increasing sea ice ..... Global Warming
Decreasing sea ice .... Global Warming
Record snow falls ..... Global Warming
No snow .......... Global Warming

i'm glad to see you're understanding the situation.
"Normal weather" has a "slower" much easier to predict pendulum swing most years with a few exceptions over ones lifetime (75yrs).
When one adds to the biosphere something that forces nature to have erratic and extreme pendulum swings you get extreme output that ride that forcing.
The forcing is the globe AS A WHOLE is warming but around that rising warming graphed line you'll see LOCALIZED areas with extreme weather that appears contradictory to the fact that the globe as A WHOLE (redundant to get a point across) is warming.
Like the North East USofA record cold, yet still the globe AS A WHOLE was warmer.
'THINK it as soo COLD in the NE USofA, yet the globe was at record level warmth. (those who know me...aGW+ml-d)
Similarly you'll see areas with record no TS activity or TS that cannot form and other areas with TS/Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones reaching record numbers & strength,
why?
Maybe cause something within this biosphere is causing nature to have fits, in trying to balance such an unnatural rapid rise in co2 & other pollutants that the only way to clean it out are localized extreme weather conditions riding on top of a warming planet for many years to come.

Analogy:: Your house is on fire on the North, East, West sides, upstairs & the basement (some weird electrical fire)
You're on the South side admiring your new self built 4258kWh Refrigerator (weird kWh?, its self built, SAR2401, he'd understand anything over 1500kWh...throw it out or "exchange/salvage" it, use salvage shop money for a 500-700kWh & buy a strong mini fridge for meats that way its not opened every other minute as the regular fridge is)
Between you opening & closing the fridge & the roast beef yer cooking its all masking the fact that the house is on fire, neighbors are yelling "HEY fire fire get out", but the hum of the fridge blocks out their words and you think all is okay.

An outside observer would say::
a) that house is warming.
b) that house is cooling
c) where can i get that fridge!
(try solar powered fridges...till modern science figures out the perpetual energy flowing all around the universe & Earth and of course how to "charge" for it. There has to be some economic boundaries and therefore laws (enforced fairly) backing that up, otherwise we have chaos.

Messages like jpsb's should be posted on Time Square / public square MEGATRON TVs, so the public can discuss whats really going on. If its removed how can i point to new members and say see jpsb posted 'look at the other areas of the world' a year or so ago and this year 'Don't look at the other areas of the world', if the messages are removed.

BACK TO present day WEATHER obs...
Very sad.. I guess one Panama Canal isn't enough?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/04/travel/lake-nicarag ua-tour/index.html

Link
I can't see the pressure readings on the 0z GFS as Pam passes through Vanuatu, but it emerges on the other side of the islands at 869 millibars.


Quoting 208. Dakster:

Very sad.. I guess one Panama Canal isn't enough?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/04/travel/lake-nicarag ua-tour/index.html

Link
     The more the merrier......
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
12:57 PM EST March 10 2015
=====================================

At 11:00 AM EST, Tropical Low located at 14.0S 115.6E or 760 kilometers north of Karratha and 900 kilometers north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported stationary.

There is a high level of uncertainty associated with this tropical low. The most likely scenario is for the low to tracks towards the west Pilbara coast and develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday or on Thursday. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Tuesday or Wednesday but gales may commence on Thursday afternoon or evening. If the system tracks more slowly towards the coast then a later impact from a more intense cyclone is likely.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. If the system tracks a little more to the east then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne districts as the system approaches and may lead to flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Port Hedland to Ningaloo, including Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth
Quoting 186. hydrus:

NAM show parts of Eastern Texas and Louisiana getting heavy rain in the next 84 hours..GFS has TN getting heavy rain.



Welp, time to build an ark...wait, nevermind it's already raining. DANGIT!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 17U
4:28 PM EST March 10 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 13.1S 149.0E or 485 kilometers east northeast of Cooktown and 500 kilometers east northeast of Cape Melville has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: TT2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction while intensifying over the next couple of days. At this stage, it is expected that the low could reach tropical cyclone strength during Wednesday.

GALES are expected to extend out to approximately 170 kilometers from the centre once the low forms into a tropical cyclone and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.5S 148.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 13.8S 147.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 14.1S 146.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 13.5S 147.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
====================
The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea has developed significantly in the last 24 hours with convection solidly building near the estimated low level center overnight and during today. Easterly vertical wind shear across the low appears to be confining most of the convection on the westward side of the system, though there now appears to be some developing on the northern side as well. Low level cloud lines have also improved in the last 24 hours.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.45 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT are both 2.5. FT based on DT as it appears fairly clear. The descending ASCAT image at 2340UTC indicated an area of gales in the northeast quadrant. The location accuracy of the system is rated as poor, though there was a 36GHz AMSR-2 microwave image at 0218UTC that provided some guidance towards the location of the low level centre.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should slow the westwards movement of the system.

The tropical low should continue to intensify into Wednesday as it moves into a more favorable environment for further development with lowering vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29 degrees. At this stage, the low is rated as a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Coen to Cape Tribulation
214. vis0
Old article on airglow links on pg go to more recent findings.


Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Near Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER TC HALIBA (12-20142015)
10:00 AM RET March 10 2015
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former TC Haliba (998 hPa) located at 23.8S 55.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
200 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 300 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity T2.0/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 24.2S 55.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS 24.5S 55.4E - 25 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)
48 HRS 26.1S 59.4E - 25 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)
72 HRS 30.6S 69.0E - 25 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
===================
This morning, the first visible satellite imagery show a center fully exposed with deep convection within far eastern part of the system.

Haliba has tracked southward for this night influenced by the residual clockwise circulation of the system nr11 which has crossed Madagascar and moves now over the Indian ocean.

Next night, the system should curve southeastward toward a transiting mid-latitudes trough.

On this track, Haliba should move closer the sub-tropical jet and undergo an increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear.

On Wednesday, it should interact with the aforementioned jet and the baroclinic zone and go through a rapid extra-tropical transition.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
3:01 PM EST March 10 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 PM EST, Tropical Low located at 14.1S 116.2E or 740 kilometers north of Karratha and 900 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

There is a high level of uncertainty associated with this tropical low. The most likely scenario is for the low to tracks towards the west Pilbara coast and develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Tuesday or Wednesday but gales may commence on Thursday afternoon or evening. If the system tracks more slowly towards the coast then a later impact from a more intense cyclone is likely.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. If the system tracks a little more to the east then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne districts as the system approaches and may lead to flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Port Hedland to Ningaloo, including Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY TWO (11F)
18:00 PM FST March 10 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 10.1S 170.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 nautical miles from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly in the past 24 hours. Primary bands wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Deep convection remains persistent. System lies in a low to moderate sheared environment with moderate to strong upper divergence. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

System tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge located to the east. Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap with white band yields DT=4.0, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southerly movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 10.8S 170.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 11.5S 170.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 14.3S 171.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
Good morning with the bassin of our current main interest, showing the huge area of Pam's developing outflow in the last 24h:


Early EWRC (eyewall replacement circle)? Eyewall is still consolidating.
Quoting 219. barbamz:


Early EWRC (eyewall replacement circle)? Eyewall is still consolidating.


Pretty rare to see with a cyclone at this stage (although not impossible). More likely just sprawling until we see otherwise.
Quoting 190. DCSwithunderscores:

A possible new world record all-time greatest 24-hour snowfall of 8.40 feet / 2.56 meters is being reported in Capracotta, Italy, where that much snow reportedly fell during an 18-hour period on March 5, 2015. The claim is being investigated.

Link

Good article; thank you. Record snow in those Italian small towns and villages is very picturesque to boot:





Source with more photos: Capracotta, la comunita della neve


Pescocostanzo; source: Adesso e ufficiale: Capracotta e Pescocostanzo hanno battuto il record MONDIALE di neve. FOTO incredibili

BTW: Watching the "Anton/Rea"-storm last week, I've saved a forecast of accumulated snow for the region from March 5 to March 6, showing some purple spots in central Italy in the range above 2 meters; here it is (source):


Click to enlarge.


Translation: In Capracotta, you have to leave your home by the window
ECMWF more aggressive with the Gulf system at 0z, and a little farther west with the eventual low tracking into far western Louisiana. No subtropical cyclone, but I'll be waterlogged for days even if there IS no surface low!
Morning, WU - our local NWS has really upped potential rainfall with their latest AFD:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
407 am CDT Tuesday Mar 10 2015

Short term...
a deep plume of moisture will continue to harass the north central
Gulf Coast through the remainder of the work week. Today should
see a good bit of rainfall over the western portion of the area.
Some tallies are already around 3 inches. Another 3 to 4 inches
would not be hard to achieve
today and definitely Wednesday. Flood Watch
will be issued this morning through Thursday for this reason. Have
went with amounts of 3 to 6 inches locally 8 in some locations.
But the convective training issue would be a problem with the
outside possibility of even higher amounts if the line of
formation does not move much
. At least two surface lows will traverse
Louisiana helping to cause lift over the entire area. The first
of these moves out of Texas into northern miss this morning. The
second moves out of the Gulf Wednesday night. Wednesday and Wednesday night may show
the higher amounts of total rainfall for the area in some places.
Quoting 223. LAbonbon:

Morning, WU - our local NWS has really upped potential rainfall with their latest AFD:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
407 am CDT Tuesday Mar 10 2015

Short term...
a deep plume of moisture will continue to harass the north central
Gulf Coast through the remainder of the work week. Today should
see a good bit of rainfall over the western portion of the area.
Some tallies are already around 3 inches. Another 3 to 4 inches
would not be hard to achieve
today and definitely Wednesday. Flood Watch
will be issued this morning through Thursday for this reason. Have
went with amounts of 3 to 6 inches locally 8 in some locations.
But the convective training issue would be a problem with the
outside possibility of even higher amounts if the line of
formation does not move much
. At least two surface lows will traverse
Louisiana helping to cause lift over the entire area. The first
of these moves out of Texas into northern miss this morning. The
second moves out of the Gulf Wednesday night. Wednesday and Wednesday night may show
the higher amounts of total rainfall for the area in some places.


Morning, Bonnie. Even with no Ana (unfortunately), I must say I'm enjoying this prospect just because it's the first really exciting event we've had in awhile.

Careful if you have to drive in it. I'm off until Thursday.
Quoting 224. KoritheMan:



Morning, Bonnie. Even with no Ana (unfortunately), I must say I'm enjoying this prospect just because it's the first really exciting event we've had in awhile.

Careful if you have to drive in it. I'm off until Thursday.

Morning, Kori - so it's your 'weekend', and it's going to be a soaker...

WU has <3 in for this event. Any idea why?
226. yoboi
Quoting 207. vis0:


i'm glad to see you're understanding the situation.
"Normal weather" has a "slower" much easier to predict pendulum swing most years with a few exceptions over ones lifetime (75yrs).
When one adds to the biosphere something that forces nature to have erratic and extreme pendulum swings you get extreme output that ride that forcing.
The forcing is the globe AS A WHOLE is warming but around that rising warming graphed line you'll see LOCALIZED areas with extreme weather that appears contradictory to the fact that the globe as A WHOLE (redundant to get a point across) is warming.
Like the North East USofA record cold, yet still the globe AS A WHOLE was warmer.
'THINK it as soo COLD in the NE USofA, yet the globe was at record level warmth. (those who know me...aGW+ml-d)
Similarly you'll see areas with record no TS activity or TS that cannot form and other areas with TS/Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones reaching record numbers & strength,
why?
Maybe cause something within this biosphere is causing nature to have fits, in trying to balance such an unnatural rapid rise in co2 & other pollutants that the only way to clean it out are localized extreme weather conditions riding on top of a warming planet for many years to come.

Analogy:: Your house is on fire on the North, East, West sides, upstairs & the basement (some weird electrical fire)
You're on the South side admiring your new self built 4258kWh Refrigerator (weird kWh?, its self built, SAR2401, he'd understand anything over 1500kWh...throw it out or "exchange/salvage" it, use salvage shop money for a 500-700kWh & buy a strong mini fridge for meats that way its not opened every other minute as the regular fridge is)
Between you opening & closing the fridge & the roast beef yer cooking its all masking the fact that the house is on fire, neighbors are yelling "HEY fire fire get out", but the hum of the fridge blocks out their words and you think all is okay.

An outside observer would say::
a) that house is warming.
b) that house is cooling
c) where can i get that fridge!
(try solar powered fridges...till modern science figures out the perpetual energy flowing all around the universe & Earth and of course how to "charge" for it. There has to be some economic boundaries and therefore laws (enforced fairly) backing that up, otherwise we have chaos.

Messages like jpsb's should be posted on Time Square / public square MEGATRON TVs, so the public can discuss whats really going on. If its removed how can i point to new members and say see jpsb posted 'look at the other areas of the world' a year or so ago and this year 'Don't look at the other areas of the world', if the messages are removed.

BACK TO present day WEATHER obs...


Does the fridge have a recirculating valve????
Pam is proving to be a bit slow to organize. Microwave continues to suggest it's trying to wrap up, but something is getting in the way. If it ever does establish a stronger core, RI should be possible if not likely. GFS continues to advertise a record breaking cyclone.

Quoting 227. MAweatherboy1:

Pam is proving to be a bit slow to organize. Microwave continues to suggest it's trying to wrap up, but something is getting in the way. If it ever does establish a stronger core, RI should be possible if not likely. GFS continues to advertise a record breaking cyclone.



GFS06z not taking Pam below 941 hPa now, Link
But looking at older runs according to this page it never did. EC on this page does take it near 900 hPa.

Edit - found the right page. Stomach aching at 861 hPa...
Quoting 218. barbamz:

Good morning with the bassin of our current main interest, showing the huge area of Pam's developing outflow in the last 24h:


Pam is an amazingly large storm... Looks like Jupiter.
Things just got wet in my little corner of the world :)

Quoting 228. cRRKampen:
Stomach aching at 861 hPa...



Source: tropicaltidbits.com
Hahahah if their's a 869 cyclone then I'm the next Bill gates :).
Not only is it going to be down right hot across FL the next 8 to 10 days but the GFS starting today has a chance of afternoon thunderstorms all the way thru mid next week. Very much a rainy season type set up on the way if the GFS verifies.

As the fate of the Arctic Sea Ice is still on topic: the next bombogenesis is taking place in the North Atlantic:



And the jetstream forecast for the next days, including several more cyclones are worth to watch. Below what it shows for Saturday. I'm no expert but I guess: more bad news for the Artic Sea Ice.






Temperature anomalies on Saturday (GEFS). Source.
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:

Things just got wet in my little corner of the world :)




Not going anywhere fast by the NAM and CMC, GFS moves it out faster.....


PAM up to 80kts.

17P PAM 150310 1200 10.6S 170.3E SHEM 80 963
Good Morning. Here is the NWS recap for Conus today and short-term forecast:

Heavy rain for Gulf Coast and lower Miss. Valley into Ohio Valley

Rain fueled by Gulf moisture will continue to expand northward from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Tuesday. Localized flash flooding is possible in parts of the Ohio Valley.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 10 2015 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2015

...Heavy rains and flash flooding will be possible along a frontal
boundary stretched from the central Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic
region...

...Conditions will become increasingly wet out West...

A steady stream of moisture lifting northward out of the Gulf of Mexico
will continue to fuel heavy rains and thunderstorms along a frontal
boundary stretched from the central Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic region.
The front will be sluggish to press south and east the next few
days...leading to repeated rounds of intense rainfall for some locations.
The greatest threat for any flash flooding will be over portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Also...a melting snow pack combined with heavy
rains will heighten the risk for flash flooding across the upper Tennessee
Valley and central Appalachians.

Conditions will become increasingly wet out West as a Pacific front
approaches the coast. Rain should reach the Pacific Northwest and
northern California by late Tuesday night...and precipitation is expected
to spread inland across a large portion of the Intermountain West and
northern to central Rockies on Wednesday. Totals should generally be
light to moderate...with the exception of the some heavier amounts along
the coast and favored terrain. Any snow should be confined to the highest
elevations.

Quoting 237. Tropicsweatherpr:

PAM up to 80kts.

17P PAM 150310 1200 10.6S 170.3E SHEM 80 963


That'll be 10 minutes sustained (I think). The 1 minute sustained used in the Atlantic would give a higher wind speed, but I don't know the conversion.
Quoting 232. washingtonian115:

Hahahah if their's a 869 cyclone then I'm the next Bill gates :).
hi bill how ya doing today
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't see the pressure readings on the 0z GFS as Pam passes through Vanuatu, but it emerges on the other side of the islands at 869 millibars.


That breaks Typhoon Tip's record of 870. Go Pam!
869 mb would set the all time World Lowest Pressure record for a Tropical Cyclone.
Is your "Stomach aching" or "cRRKampen"? at 861 hPa...
Quoting 235. nrtiwlnvragn:



Not going anywhere fast by the NAM and CMC, GFS moves it out faster.....




Is the GFS showing the first low and the NAM and CMC showing the second? Per this morning's NWS-New Orleans AFD:

"At least two surface lows will traverse Louisiana helping to cause lift over the entire area. The first of these moves out of Texas into northern miss this morning. The second moves out of the Gulf Wednesday night. "

Forecast surface analysis for this afternoon:



And for Wednesday night:



Loop
Quoting 243. ChillinInTheKeys:

Is your "Stomach aching" or "cRRKampen"? at 861 hPa...
In reality it might..pressure that low does cause discomfort. My ears popped during Charley..It was bothersome.
Quoting 242. Sfloridacat5:

869 mb would set the all time World Lowest Pressure record for a Tropical Cyclone.
No matter what , I believe it wont be long before 870 mb record is broken.
Quoting 246. hydrus:

In reality it might..pressure that low does cause discomfort. My ears popped during Charley..It was bothersome.


Let's not forget all the emotions: anxiety, adrenaline, second guessing, etc. from the choice made to ride out a Major. That can be a bit rough on your stomach!
Quoting 248. ChillinInTheKeys:



Let's not forget all the emotions: anxiety, adrenaline, second guessing, etc. from the choice made to ride out a Major. That can be a bit rough on your stomach!
Did not have much time. It was forecast to go to Tampa, so we initially were breathing pretty easy, but then the local Mets broke in to scheduled programming , and said that Charlotte Harbor will be getting a direct hit , and to rush any preparations to protect life and property.. I will never forget the image on T.V screen of his computer with 150 mph in huge print., and a very concerned weatherman standing by it.
Quoting 233. StormTrackerScott:

Not only is it going to be down right hot across FL the next 8 to 10 days but the GFS starting today has a chance of afternoon thunderstorms all the way thru mid next week. Very much a rainy season type set up on the way if the GFS verifies.



How crazy is it that we are talking about sea breeze collisions in March? LOL!
Tropical Cyclone Pam is forecast to be a CAT4 on March 13th.
That would give the cyclone a central pressure much higher than the GFS projection.

Quoting 247. hydrus:

No matter what , I believe it wont be long before 870 mb record is broken.

Yes.
To be clear, my stomach is hurting from looking at the model output for this Pam, who's not even over supertyphoon seas. I think it must be scars from Haiyan. If this Pam modelling verifies we may assume that Haiyan was not too special (anymore) in this time and age. That hurts - even when I wish one like that as a Sandy 2.0 .
Quoting 239. yonzabam:



That'll be 10 minutes sustained (I think). The 1 minute sustained used in the Atlantic would give a higher wind speed, but I don't know the conversion.



Knots * 1.15 = mph

10 min. WS * 1.12 = 1 min. WS
Quoting 209. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can't see the pressure readings on the 0z GFS as Pam passes through Vanuatu, but it emerges on the other side of the islands at 869 millibars.



Even if Pam can reach that pressure there is no way to verify it. The best could be to use the Courtney & Knaff formula, which I believe Nadi uses in their bulletins. Same issue happened with Haiyan when JMA gave a reading of 895 hPa in their best track. The calculated pressures were closer to 880-876 hPa. I can't wait for drones to become common place in cyclone recon. Would greatly improve record keeping.
Quoting 225. LAbonbon:


Morning, Kori - so it's your 'weekend', and it's going to be a soaker...

WU has <3 in for this event. Any idea why?


The bloggers sure don't, unless you're talking about something else.
Starting to become better organized. Eye popping out in the last few frames. If convection can persist and wrap around and this feature becomes less ephemeral, we could see rapid intensification over the next day or two.

Quoting 250. fmbill:


How crazy is it that we are talking about sea breeze collisions in March? LOL!


Not crazy at all. It's easier to get a sea breeze when the water is colder and such sea breezes penetrate further inland. In Princeton NJ, sea breezes often either took the sting out of a hot day or ruined a decent spring day
in the first third of the warm season until early July. DC metro gets bay breezes until mid June when they become weaker and less common. In hot humid late spring weather, the bay breeze front sometimes fires with decent thunderstorms.
Quoting 255. KoritheMan:



The bloggers sure don't, unless you're talking about something else.

I'm talking about the WU forecast. Right now it's got 2.52" for today through Friday.
Pam's maximum intensity if forecast to be 140 knots (161 mph) before starting to weaken.
Link
Hopefully the system doesn't roll over any islands at that intensity.
I don't know what's worse, the fact we haven't had a decent hurricane landfall in what seems like forever (unless you count Sandy, which was technically extratropical at the time of landfall), or the fact that a non-tropical system in _March_ has a better chance of hitting the coast than something in August or September, at least if we follow the progression of the last few years. Weird indeed.

Quoting 258. LAbonbon:


I'm talking about the WU forecast. Right now it's got 2.52" for today through Friday.


Not unreasonable at all.
Quoting 261. KoritheMan:



Not unreasonable at all.

Good to know. I like that figure much more than some of the higher-end NWS numbers.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Starting to become better organized. Eye popping out in the last few frames. If convection can persist and wrap around and this feature becomes less ephemeral, we could see rapid intensification over the next day or two.


Took me a few seconds to find the eye you were talking about.
On another note, 0.3 inches or so of rain has fallen for me so far. Hourly Graph says another 0.3 expected through tonight, but looking at the radar, I think I am almost done with the rain since I am at the back edge.
Backyard is flooding (saturated grounds from WS Hector's snowmelt) and a house behind me has a backyard that is about 65% flooded, especially near the fence.
Currently raining lightly with a temprature of 47 degrees.
Quoting 262. LAbonbon:


Good to know. I like that figure much more than some of the higher-end NWS numbers.


By "not unreasonable" I was kind of talking about the lower end of possible totals. I'm personally leaning closer to about 4 inches before all is said and done.
265. jpsb
Cape Cod

For the 4th day in a row, sunspot AR2297 is crackling with solar flares. The latest, an M5-class eruption on March 9th at 23:53 UT, produced a low-frequency radio blackout over the South Pacific and an up close shot of the filament looks like the number 3...but thats just my opinion :)
Quoting 247. hydrus:

No matter what , I believe it wont be long before 870 mb record is broken.

I have that feeling too
What the new record could be?

I'll be alive to experience this.. unlike for Tip's
On the Atlantic season hurricane issue, I would have to do some research (but don't have the time) to get a general idea of what the "big-picture" synoptic issues are in the Atlantic basin during a less active phase of the multi-decadal cycle. We have been very lucky in the Caribbean and Conus for a long stretch now in terms of a major Cat cane coming through and the way that storms have struggled in the mid-Atlantic for several seasons now has been an interesting watch. Don't know what more it will take before the "pros" declare the end of the current active phase but if anyone on here knows the general criteria it would be most appreciated; a potential El Nino this year with lower numbers might not be the best indicator of a phase change but I am interested in what to watch for declaration. They usually last about 25-30 years per the literature but the current active phase started around 1995 and we are "technically" at the 20 year mark now and getting close.
JTWC PAM peak up to 140kts.

Here is the take on the AMO issue from Noaa:

Can we predict the AMO?

We are not yet capable of predicting exactly when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer models, such as those that predict El Nino, are far from being able to do this. What is possible to do at present is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame. Probabilistic projections of this kind may prove to be very useful for long-term planning in climate sensitive applications, such as water management.

Values from 1856-2006

interesting tidbit from noaa...contrary to what some have expressed


But what does it mean for North American and global weather?
At this time, these are extremely weak El Niño conditions, during a time of year when the influence of El Niño on weather patterns in North America or other locations outside of the Tropics is weakening. For example, historical precipitation patterns associated with El Niño show that only about 3 of the past 10 El Niño years exhibited above-average rainfall in California during March-April-May (map pair below). Another way of looking at the historical relationships shows that ENSO has very little correlation to precipitation over North America during the spring
Took me a few seconds to find the eye you were talking about.


i saw the eye days ago.... :-)
someone asked how el nino might affect tornado season....here's from reed timmons......

What does this mean for the 2015 storm season?
We're planning on releasing a test tornado forecast by state next week for this spring and summer, but based on my initial glance of this SST pattern and comparing it with the characteristic patterns in my dissertation - I'd say generally this will be a late starting storm season, first in Dixie Alley from an active Subtropical Jet Stream, and then an active late April/May in the Southern Plains. Similar ENSO conditions were present during late winter/early spring of 1994, 1995, and 2003, each of which were active seasons in the Panhandle region. While this is only a few years, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some early June tornado outbreaks in the Texas Panhandle this season... but keep in mind this is more speculation and hand waving at this point
It has stopped raining in Carbondale IL.
Quoting 247. hydrus:

No matter what , I believe it wont be long before 870 mb record is broken.


Unless there is some new source of funding for recon, the only place it could happen is in the Atlantic or East Pacific, both of which are much less likely locations than in the W Pac
Quoting 254. Supportstorm:


Even if Pam can reach that pressure there is no way to verify it. The best could be to use the Courtney & Knaff formula, which I believe Nadi uses in their bulletins. Same issue happened with Haiyan when JMA gave a reading of 895 hPa in their best track. The calculated pressures were closer to 880-876 hPa. I can't wait for drones to become common place in cyclone recon. Would greatly improve record keeping.


Yeah not to say that 895 is not impressive, but Haiyan being 895 min pressure at max intensity was a joke, Haiyan was no doubt at least in the pressure range of hurricane Wilma, even deeper, maybe sub 880 mb.
Jersey Shore in spring...75F and sunny at the beach, 11:00 AM wind turns onshore, temp drops to 50F. My high school did not have a track. We practiced on the Belmar boardwalk. Remember freezing my butt off because I didn't bring my warm ups.

Quoting 257. georgevandenberghe:



Not crazy at all. It's easier to get a sea breeze when the water is colder and such sea breezes penetrate further inland. In Princeton NJ, sea breezes often either took the sting out of a hot day or ruined a decent spring day
in the first third of the warm season until early July. DC metro gets bay breezes until mid June when they become weaker and less common. In hot humid late spring weather, the bay breeze front sometimes fires with decent thunderstorms.
Quoting 265. jpsb:

Cape Cod


and it will melt away as fast as it came watch wait see
Quoting 254. Supportstorm:


Even if Pam can reach that pressure there is no way to verify it. The best could be to use the Courtney & Knaff formula, which I believe Nadi uses in their bulletins. Same issue happened with Haiyan when JMA gave a reading of 895 hPa in their best track. The calculated pressures were closer to 880-876 hPa. I can't wait for drones to become common place in cyclone recon. Would greatly improve record keeping.

Actually, there could possibly be a way verify such a pressure if Pam were to track over Vanuatu. However, as with Haiyan's case over the Philippines, gathering such a reading is still very unlikely.
Very cold cloudtops with Pam as of 11:30 am eastern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
8:44 PM EST March 10 2015
=====================================

At 8:00 PM EST, Tropical Low located at 14.3S 116.3E or 720 kilometers north of Karratha and 880 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. If the system tracks a little more to the east then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne districts as the system approaches and may lead to flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Port Hedland to Coral Bay
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY ONE (17U)
11:55 PM EST March 10 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category One (993 hPa) located at 13.3S 148.6E or 435 kilometers northeast of Cooktown and 450 kilometers east northeast of Cape Melville has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

GALES extend out to approximately 150 kilometers from the west of the center and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.7S 147.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 14.0S 147.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 14.0S 146.5E -70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.5S 147.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
A large flare of convection has developed associated with the low level center of tropical cyclone Nathan in recent hours, however little curvature is currently evident. CIMSS satellite winds indicate moderate northeasterly wind shear persists over the system and development during today has been slow after a significant improvement on Monday night.

Position accuracy of the low level center remains poor. Intensity is analyzed at 40 knots based principally on the 1200Z ASCAT pass which depicts a solid 40 knot circulation. Dvorak supports with a MET of 3.0 used as the final T [DT currently difficult to obtain].

Tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should slow the westwards movement of the system.

Nathan should continue to intensify, particularly after 1200Z on Wednesday as it moves into a more favorable environment for further development with lowering vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29C

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Coen to Cape Tribulation


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane has 100 knots (10 min) in 120 hours..
Quoting 283. HadesGodWyvern:



Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane has 100 knots (10 min) in 120 hours..


10 minutes? That's pretty impressive.
you know what I mean.. :P

10 min sustained winds ;)
Quoting 285. HadesGodWyvern:

you know what I mean.. :P

10 min sustained winds ;)


Huh? I was being serious. I was saying that 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots is impressive. You're the one that did the faux pas. :P
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Intense Cyclone Pam destructive path thru Vanuatu ... and new TC Nathan may touch Queensland coast GFS 12z 3-day fx:
Link: Watch the animation of Pam's path here. Truly frightening for Vanuatu.
ah, gotcha.
Vanuatu Meteorological Services

Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM (970 hPa) was located at 10.5S 170.8E. The severe Tropical Cyclone PAM is still outside of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 530 KM northeast of Banks group. Winds close to the centre is estimated at 130KM/HR and increasing. The system is moving south at 7 KM/HR.

Strong winds of 50KM/HR will affect MALAMPA and SHEFA tonight and continuing tomorrow. Gales force winds of 80KM/HR is expected to affect TORBA, SANMA and PENAMA within the next 24 to 36 hrs.

Heavy rainfall is expected throughout Northern Vanuatu with flooding and flash flooding expected over low lying areas. A strong wind warning is current for all open waters of Vanuatu. A severe Weather Warning is also current for Northern islands.

The next information will be issued at 6:00am or earlier if the situation changes. People are advised to listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest information on this system.

This information is also available on VMGD's website, www.meteo.gov.vu.
We have Subtropical Depression in South Atlantic.





Quoting 260. KoritheMan:

I don't know what's worse, the fact we haven't had a decent hurricane landfall in what seems like forever (unless you count Sandy, which was technically extratropical at the time of landfall), or the fact that a non-tropical system in _March_ has a better chance of hitting the coast than something in August or September, at least if we follow the progression of the last few years. Weird indeed.



lol
That's an interesting way of looking at things.
Quoting 290. Tropicsweatherpr:

We have Subtropical Depression in South Atlantic.







The third of the year. Subtropical Storm Cari?
Quite an active pattern for the southwest Atlantic with trough splits able to get trapped under a building high and develop with more favorable upper level winds and above average SST anomalies.
Lots of comparisons with the overall pattern currently to March of 1997. I am amazed at how fast things appear to be snow balling in terms of ENSO come this Summer.

Michael Ventrice retweeted
forecastguy @forecastguy · 58m 58 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 @RyanMaue Closest I could find synoptically is late March of 1997: #Nino #OhShit


97W has been marked as a tropical depression

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST March 10 2015
============================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 4.0N 173.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Somewhat weather related. I'm a sad person right now. Verizon FIOS got rid of both Weatherscan and TWC replacing the channel with Accuweather............. with no prior notice either. :,^( While TWC has a lot of reality shows now, at least I could get great info from them during big storms.
Forms the third subtropical/tropical cyclone of our basin.
Fresh BBC weather video:
Bulgaria battles deadly snowstorm
BBC weather video, 10 March 2015 Last updated at 16:41
A state of emergency has been declared in Bulgaria, where heavy snowfall and flooding has caused major disruption. BBC Weather's Matt Taylor has the latest.

And this is what we're talking about in Bulgaria:

Photo: Janko Bulakiev. Clearing the road near lake "Belmeken" (1800 m.a.s.l., between Rila and Rhodope mountains, Bulgaria). Source: Severe Weather Europe
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have Subtropical Depression in South Atlantic.






No way!
Quoting 279. 1900hurricane:


Actually, if there could possibly be a way verify such a pressure if Pam were to track over Vanuatu. However, as with Haiyan's case over the Philippines, gathering such a reading is still very unlikely.


Yeah, good luck finding an instrument surviving 180-200 mph gusts lol.

Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Somewhat weather related. I'm a sad person right now. Verizon FIOS got rid of both Weatherscan and TWC replacing the channel with Accuweather............. with no prior notice either. :,^( While TWC has a lot of reality shows now, at least I could get great info from them during big storms.

Sorry about that.
Quoting 260. KoritheMan:

I don't know what's worse, the fact we haven't had a decent hurricane landfall in what seems like forever (unless you count Sandy, which was technically extratropical at the time of landfall), or the fact that a non-tropical system in _March_ has a better chance of hitting the coast than something in August or September, at least if we follow the progression of the last few years. Weird indeed.




To be fair, Arthur last year was a pretty significant landfall to Outer Banks very close to Category 3. Honestly, Arthur was almost strongest possible storm without delivering widespread destruction so I guess it has been years since we saw damage from storms like 2004/2005 ones or Ike...
South Atlantic storm floater
I live in this red dot, see: (Canoas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil):

Quoting 290. Tropicsweatherpr:

We have Subtropical Depression in South Atlantic.







If I'm not mistaken, I believe that means that every southern hemisphere basin simultaneously has an active storm. I don't think that has ever happened before.
Quoting 299. Bluestorm5:



Yeah, good luck finding an instrument surviving 180-200 mph gusts lol.


I think you would need to fly an instrument with the wind and measure it's relative speed. Drones...
Porto Alegre in the orange dot and my home, my city (Canoas) in the red dot!!! :p
Tropical cyclone formation in the South Atlantic is becoming regular enough to where seasons should be considered, IMO.
Quoting 301. Bluestorm5:



To be fair, Arthur last year was a pretty significant landfall to Outer Banks very close to Category 3. Honestly, Arthur was almost strongest possible storm without delivering widespread destruction so I guess it has been years since we saw damage from storms like 2004/2005 ones or Ike...
Arthur didn't really cause the damage you'd expect from a 100 mph cat2. Most areas even near the coast didn't get more than minimal hurricane force wind gusts (with a few exceptions).
Pam's eye has been seen intermittently throughout the past 24 hours as the cyclone continues to solidify its inner core. Some dry air from the north and maybe a touch of northeasterly shear look to be slowing this process, but these should be temporary issues. I fully expect Pam to reach Category 5 intensity, and I'm forecasting a peak of 150kt.

309. Going to go bold here with Pam and say a 165 knot peak, especially if it can cycle out some of that dry air and consolidate some more.
Quoting 293. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of comparisons with the overall pattern currently to March of 1997. I am amazed at how fast things appear to be snow balling in terms of ENSO come this Summer.

Michael Ventrice retweeted
forecastguy @forecastguy · 58m 58 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 @RyanMaue Closest I could find synoptically is late March of 1997: #Nino #OhShit



Todd Crawford ‏@tcrawf_nh 1h1 hour ago
@forecastguy @EricBlake12 @RyanMaue and of course the MJO analog is March 1997 as well...ECM says 1997-level Nino is possible...we'll see
Quoting 308. Huracan94:

Arthur didn't really cause the damage you'd expect from a 100 mph cat2. Most areas even near the coast didn't get more than minimal hurricane force wind gusts (with a few exceptions).


Yeah, I'm aware of that. Heck, I chased Arthur and didn't even get hurricane force wind gusts standing at a beach near Wilmington :) Outer Banks got beat up from that one with HWY 12 getting ruined yet again, but that was typical stuff for folks there. The strongest of Arthur hit the area most prepared for a hurricane of entire North Carolina.
Quoting 307. CybrTeddy:

Tropical cyclone formation in the South Atlantic is becoming regular enough to where seasons should be considered, IMO.


Ain't google wunnerful? South Atlantic cyclones.

Catarina (2004) 100 mph
Anita (2010) 50 mph
Arani (2011) 50 mph
Bapo (2015) 40 mph
Quoting 260. KoritheMan:

I don't know what's worse, the fact we haven't had a decent hurricane landfall in what seems like forever (unless you count Sandy, which was technically extratropical at the time of landfall), or the fact that a non-tropical system in _March_ has a better chance of hitting the coast than something in August or September, at least if we follow the progression of the last few years. Weird indeed.



I thought of you Kori.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A COUPLE ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MORNING UPDATE. REMOVED MORNING POPS
NEAR THE COAST BUT RAISED THEM ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DELAYED THE DECREASING CLOUDS
TREND TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY LONG.

LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NEED TO GO WITH SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE BRINGING A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD SE TX AND SW LA. WILL WAIT
UNTIL ALL THE NEW MODELS ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
GLAD IT IS MARCH 10TH AND NOT JUNE 10TH. 42
Quoting 232. washingtonian115:

Hahahah if their's a 869 cyclone then I'm the next Bill gates :).


I always pictured you more as Melinda gates.
Lots of comparisons with the overall pattern currently to March of 1997. I am amazed at how fast things appear to be snow balling in terms of ENSO come this Summer.

more accurate would be that there are a few comparisons to this year and 97...but most experts are sticking to a weak/moderate event
Thursday morning might be interesting here on the gulf coast.................
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Yeah, good luck finding an instrument surviving 180-200 mph gusts lol.


What I always find funny is someone will say they received 190 mph wind gusts at their location. The trees are still standing and the homes are still intact.

Many people don't realize how intense/damaging 190 mph winds are. 190 mph winds will flatten or strip trees and even the best build homes with be completely destroyed or sustain significant damage.

If your trees are still looking good and the houses are still in good shape, you didn't sustain winds anywhere close to 190 mph (probably not even 90 mph).



Quoting 318. Sfloridacat5:



What I always find funny is someone will say they received 190 mph wind gusts at their location. The trees are still standing and the homes are still intact.

Many people don't realize how intense/damaging 190 mph winds are. 190 mph winds will flatten or strip trees and even the best build homes with be completely destroyed or sustain significant damage.

If your trees are still looking good and the houses are still in good shape, you didn't sustain winds anywhere close to 190 mph (probably not even 90 mph).




yes with that kind of wind..anyone that stays instead of evacuating is very foolish indeed
Quoting 306. pablosyn:

Porto Alegre in the orange dot and my home, my city (Canoas) in the red dot!!! :p


anything exciting there for you?
Quoting 306. pablosyn:

Porto Alegre in the orange dot and my home, my city (Canoas) in the red dot!!! :p



We will have to start having more satellite images from down there if you keep getting these storms.

Quoting 318. Sfloridacat5:



What I always find funny is someone will say they received 190 mph wind gusts at their location. The trees are still standing and the homes are still intact.

Many people don't realize how intense/damaging 190 mph winds are. 190 mph winds will flatten or strip trees and even the best build homes with be completely destroyed or sustain significant damage.

If your trees are still looking good and the houses are still in good shape, you didn't sustain winds anywhere close to 190 mph (probably not even 90 mph).




I believe mini burst in Andrew probably had gust up to 190 by looking at the pictures.
Quoting 318. Sfloridacat5:



What I always find funny is someone will say they received 190 mph wind gusts at their location. The trees are still standing and the homes are still intact.

Many people don't realize how intense/damaging 190 mph winds are. 190 mph winds will flatten or strip trees and even the best build homes with be completely destroyed or sustain significant damage.

If your trees are still looking good and the houses are still in good shape, you didn't sustain winds anywhere close to 190 mph (probably not even 90 mph).



That's not true at all, yes the trees will suffer, but a very well built house should not have a problem with those winds.
Quoting 322. washingtonian115:

I believe mini burst in Andrew probably had gust up to 190 by looking at the pictures.


Andrew spawned the updated Miami-Dade building codes, so newer construction will fare much better. My home is (supposedly) able to withstand 150 mph winds.
New Orleans and those parts starting to get some heavy rain bands this afternoon from the
slowly moving frontal system; advisories up and have to wait whether the train continues later
today causing some flood warnings:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1247 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 1246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEW ORLEANS...KENNER...CHALMETTE...MARRERO...AVONDALE. ..EAST NEW
ORLEANS...METAIRIE...HARVEY...JEFFERSON...GRETNA.. .HARAHAN...
WESTWEGO...ELMWOOD...RIVER RIDGE...WAGGAMAN...ARABI...BRIDGE
CITY...AMA...TERRYTOWN AND ST. ROSE.
Quoting NativeSun:



Even well built homes will have serious issues dealing with 190 mph winds without significant damage.
Quoting 321. Grothar:



We will have to start having more satellite images from down there if you keep getting these storms.




Thank you" I agree with you! I think that we already should have a long time!

CAT4
130-156 mph

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

CAT5
157 mph or higher

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

"Category 5 is the highest category a tropical cyclone can obtain in the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland. They include office, condominium and apartment buildings and hotels that are of solid concrete or steel frame construction, public multi-story concrete parking garages, and residences that are made of either reinforced brick or concrete/cement block and have hipped roofs with slopes of no less than 35 degrees from horizontal and no overhangs of any kind, and if the windows are either made of hurricane-resistant safety glass or covered with shutters. Unless all of these requirements are met, the absolute destruction of a structure is certain.[5]"

Info from Wiki, referenced source as NHC
Quoting 328. Sfloridacat5:



Even well built homes will have serious issues dealing with 190 mph winds without significant damage.

Like blowing out the windows and clearing the contents.
High winds also come with flying debris, up to entire cars - for extra damage.
Joplin tornado result:
Anyone else got problems with the internet in the US today, especially with satellite loops from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov or twitter (down for me intermittently) and other sites? WU-blog is heavily impaired for me as well, already for hours :-(
Quoting 334. barbamz:

Anyone else got problems with the internet in the US today, especially with satellite loops from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov or twitter (down for me intermittently) and other sites? WU-blog is heavily impaired for me as well, already for hours :-(

WU, NOAA, twitter are fine for me, as well as non-weather sites I've been on. NWS has been a little slow, though.

Sorry you're having difficulties!
In reading through the comments below on wind speeds, I note that the issue of severe weather (from atmospheric events) which most often lead to catastrophie are:

Wind gusts (whether from tornadoes, hurricanes, or intense thunderstorms/fronts/low pressure systems), and
Excessive Periods of Rain-Snow (Flood-Snow Danger Threat) from moisture laden systems or Storm Surge in the case of coastal low pressure storms (whether cold cored or warm cored);

When not associated with a short-lived severe event as noted above, then persistent patterns related to lack of rain (drought), or extended heat or cold waves, are the next big-ticket items.

Not sure If I missed anything in the general list above (am not including things like earthquakes or tsunamis) and mudslides/mountain collapses often come with the excessive rain issue.
Some images of Homestead AFB after Andrew



Quoting 336. weathermanwannabe:
In reading through the comments below on wind speeds, I note that the issue of severe weather (from atmospheric events) which most often lead to catastrophie are:

Wind gusts (whether from tornadoes, hurricanes, or intense thunderstorms/fronts/low pressure systems), and
Excessive Periods of Rain-Snow (Flood-Snow Danger Threat) from moisture laden systems or Storm Surge in the case of coastal low pressure storms (whether cold cored or warm cored);

When not associated with a short-lived severe event as noted above, then persistent patterns related to lack of rain (drought), or extended heat or cold waves, are the next big-ticket items.

Not sure If I missed anything in the general list above (am not including things like earthquakes or tsunamis) and mudslides/mountain collapses often come with the excessive rain issue.

Of which the single most costly are river/-delta floods (snowmelt and/or rain).
I'd say storm surges are the most deadly among the acute phenomena, and heat waves among all.
For those who may not have it,here is the NOAA South Atlantic Page.
Quoting 337. Grothar:

Some images of Homestead AFB after Andrew






That was quite a site as where the houses where only the foundation was left. Not even a stick of wood or a block of concrete.
Quoting LAbonbon:
"Category 5 is the highest category a tropical cyclone can obtain in the Saffir%u2013Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland. They include office, condominium and apartment buildings and hotels that are of solid concrete or steel frame construction, public multi-story concrete parking garages, and residences that are made of either reinforced brick or concrete/cement block and have hipped roofs with slopes of no less than 35 degrees from horizontal and no overhangs of any kind, and if the windows are either made of hurricane-resistant safety glass or covered with shutters. Unless all of these requirements are met, the absolute destruction of a structure is certain.[5]"

Info from Wiki, referenced source as NHC


The Saffir-Simpson Scale increases about every 20mph (from CAT3 to CAT4 to CAT5).

So wind speeds in the 170-190 mph range would technically be a CAT6 based on this standard. But storms of that strength are so rare, they hasn't been a need for a higher category.

But 190 mph winds would definitely not be comparable to 157 mph winds. The difference in damage would be considerable between these wind speeds.
Most likely see EF3 boarderline EF4 tornado type damage from 190 mph winds.
Oh boy,12z GFS down to 870 mbs.

Hello good afternoon everyone!

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM MARCH 09 AT 0000 UTC): GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ONE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE IS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE DAY 2-3 LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL BRASIL COAST. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A WEAKER CYCLONE BUT
KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WHEREBY THE GFS SUGGESTS A
DEEPER LOW BUT MUCH FURTHER OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST CHALLENGING OVER SOUTHEAST BRASIL. ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THIS CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE SACZ IS EXPECTED TO FUEL
LOCALLY HEAVY BANDED RAINFALL AND CONVECTION NEAR JOINVILLE AND
FLORIANOPOLIS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 20-40MM OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON
DAYS 1-2...AND 15-30MM ON DAY 3. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OFF THE COAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON DAYS 4-5 AND SCATTERED
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION.
FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SACZ...POOLED
MOISTURE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER COUPLE WITH INSTABILITY
PORTENDS WELL FOR LOCAL DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON DAY 1
WHERE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH 35-70MM OF
RAINFALL FROM RIO DE JANEIRO NORTHWEST THROUGH UBERLANDIA. DAILY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LOWER TO 25-50MM FOR DAYS 2-3.

OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENT...CONVECTION VENTING BENEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
OVER NORTHEAST BRASIL AND THE INTERIOR JUNGLES. 15-25MM IS
POSSIBLE DAYS 1-3 OVER THE INTERIOR...AND AS MUCH AS 20-40 MM ON
DAYS 1-2...AND 15-25MM ON DAY 3 IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AT 0000 UTC TODAY INDICATED A 200 HPA
ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN PERU. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON DAYS 1-2 BUT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE
FORM THE NORTHERN JUNGLES INTO NORTHERN PERU. DAILY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA COULD REACH 25-50MM/DAY ON
DAYS 1-3. MUCH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-10MM ARE ANTICIPATED
SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PERU AND BOLIVIA.

OVER THE CENTRAL CONTINENT...DEEP MOISTURE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER FAR SOUTHERN BOLIVIA AND NORTHERN PATAGONIA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING ON DAYS 1-3. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE 95 PERCENTILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE...
00-10MM OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULES OUT DAYS
1-3. BY DAY 4.. ENHANCED LIFT WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT ON MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION
WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM POSSIBLE.

OVER THE SOUTHERN CONTINENT.. A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DAYS 1-3 OVER THE SOUTHERN
ARGENTINIAN PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-15MM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL INITIATE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER SOUTHERN
CHILE ON DAY 1 AND AGAIN ON DAY 4. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 15-30 MM
ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY 1 OVER THE SOUTHERN ANDES.. AND LINGERS
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ON DAY 2 MAY RESULT IN 05-10MM. THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE ON DAY 3 INTO DAY 4 WILL LIKELY
FEATURE EVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES BUT WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. 15-20MM OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 4 OVER THE
SOUTHERN ANDES.


ARREAGA.....INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
BODNER......WPC (USA)

Link
Quoting Sfloridacat5:

CAT4
130-156 mph

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

CAT5
157 mph or higher

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.


Who in their right mind would even consider building a frame structure in Dade County . Oh yeah greedy unregulated developers in unincorperated Dade.
Quoting 342. Tropicsweatherpr:

Oh boy,12z GFS down to 870 mbs.


Is it possible for Pam to have a really low central pressure due to its huge size and for the winds to not make it as high as forecast, like Ike? 122 knots = 140 mph.
SfloridaCat5 - Andrew pretty much annihilated everything in its direct path as an initially rated Cat 4. Yes, I know It ended up being a Cat 5. After the point that most structures will fail, what point is there to rate it higher.

So I too wondered why do we need a cat 6 an even a cat 7 scale? Even though they are rare not sure it is needed, maybe just to keep stats?

Kinda of like I hope to never find out about a 11.0 EQ...

Quoting 341. Sfloridacat5:



The Saffir-Simpson Scale increases about every 20mph (from CAT3 to CAT4 to CAT5).

So wind speeds in the 170-190 mph range would technically be a CAT6 based on this standard. But storms of that strength are so rare, they hasn't been a need for a higher category.

But 190 mph winds would definitely not be comparable to 157 mph winds. The difference in damage would be considerable between these wind speeds.
Most likely see EF3 boarderline EF4 tornado type damage from 190 mph winds.


Agree.
HWRF operational is looking rather bullish on intensity too.



SH, 17, 2015031006, 03, HWRF, 75, 176S, 1692E, 130, 901, XX, 50, NEQ, 169, 125, 118, 136, 0, 0, 36, 0
Why is the blog so dead when we have a monster developing?
PAM up to 85kts.

17P PAM 150310 1800 11.1S 170.1E SHEM 85 959
Quoting 349. Gearsts:

Why is the blog so dead when we have a monster developing?



If this is in Caribbean or GOM blog would be hopping. But agree that tropical weather enthusiastics should follow cyclones in all basins.
Outgoing winter proves warmest in Russia in history of weather monitoring.

Moscow. The outgoing winter, which ended a couple of days ago according to the calendar, has proved the warmest in the history of weather monitoring in Russia conducted since 1891, the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring said on Monday, as cited by TASS.
Over the past winter the average air temperatures in almost all Russian regions were two degrees above the norm as a minimum; on some territories it was even warmer. The past winter proved particularly mild in the Central, Northwest, Siberian and the Far Eastern Federal Districts, where seasonal air temperatures were 4-7 degrees above the norm.


Link
Quoting 349. Gearsts:

Why is the blog so dead when we have a monster developing?

That's easy because it's not in the Atlantic basin.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 353. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's easy because it's not in the Atlantic basin.
Well with a possible moderate El nino later this year,cold AMO and low instability we better get used to watching other oceans for Tropical cyclones like the Epac for the summer.
Quoting 351. Tropicsweatherpr:


If this is in Caribbean or GOM blog would be hopping. But agree that tropical weather enthusiastics should follow cyclones in all basins.

Hopping. In Holland, me, even.
Quoting 328. Sfloridacat5:




Even well built homes will have serious issues dealing with 190 mph winds without significant damage.
Quoting 330. Sfloridacat5:


CAT4
130-156 mph

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

CAT5
157 mph or higher

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.


I'm not saying a framed home, I'm talking about a reinforced concrete house with a poured concrete roof, with at least 7/16" heat on heat impact doors and windows. I used 1/2" on my larger windows and doors.
Why is Dr. Bob talking about the 14 million mark? This year exceeded that mark too. Shouldn't he be talking about the 14.5 million mark that has not failed to be reached before...based on his graph.