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El Niño Conditions Now Official; Cold, Snow Take a Parting Swipe at East

By: Bob Henson 4:55 PM GMT on March 06, 2015

More than a year after the prospect of a 2014–15 El Niño event first surfaced, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a long-awaited El Niño Advisory on Thursday. We’re still a long way from a textbook example of El Niño: ocean warming is barely above the standard threshold, and the atmospheric response is not yet fully formed and consistent. One thing we do know is that sea-surface temperatures in the crucial Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific have now met the El Niño threshold (0.5°C above average) across four overlapping three-month periods (Sept- Nov, Oct-Dec, Nov-Jan, and unofficially Dec-Feb). A total of five such periods are required before the title “El Niño episode” is bestowed by NOAA, so we could be there by April.



Figure 1. Weekly departures from average in sea-surface temperature (degrees C) across the Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


Along with the increased certainty of warm SSTs, the atmospheric response is gradually becoming more coherent, according to CPC forecaster Emily Becker. “For the last few months, we’ve been seeing some suggestions of borderline atmospheric El Niño conditions, but until this month we were below that borderline. This month, we’ve finally crept above it,” said Becker in a blog post at climate.gov. She points to a weakening of equatorial trade winds, as expressed in the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, as well as an increase in rainfall across the central tropical Pacific. NOAA’s advisory pegs the odds of El Niño conditions extending into northern summer at 50-60%. Weak El Niño events are much less likely to produce reliable effects on U.S. weather than stronger events, although there could be a El Niño–boosted enhancement of rainfall across the Gulf states this spring. With California’s rainy season winding down, there’s little hope of any major benefit from El Niño.

Seven of the eight global computer models surveyed this week by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate that Niño3.4 temperatures will be above the NOAA threshold (0.5°C) in July. Predictions are most challenging during northern spring, when El Niño episodes are usually on the wane. If this event does mature and extends into next autumn, then 2015 could become one of the rare calendar years that sees continous El Niño conditions from January to December (as measured by the oceanic index described above). Going back to the start of NOAA records in 1950, the only other such years are 1953, 1969, and 1987. A prolonged El Niño event isn’t necessarily a strong one, but several models do push the Niño3.4 index above 1.0°C by this summer. An event under way in July typically strengthens by the end of the year, as climatology becomes more favorable.

Twin tropical cyclones possible next week
The incipient El Niño could get a shot in the arm from a major westerly wind burst that models are consistently developing next week around 5°S in the western Pacific. As they push against the prevailing east-to-west trades, westerly wind bursts can help nudge the ocean-atmosphere linkage toward the direction of El Niño. The atmospheric set-up that favors a westerly wind burst can also encourage the development of twin tropical cyclones to its north and south, and models are indicating this may also occur next week. In fact, multiple runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting that a tropical cyclone east of Australia could become one of the strongest on record for that region. It’s far too soon to take any model forecast literally, with the event still nearly a week out, but the consistency across multiple models lends credence to the idea of a powerful cyclone that could threaten islands in the southwest Pacific north of New Zealand sometime late next week.


Figure 6. Snowfall on Thursday, March 5, in Glasgow, Kentucky, east of Bowling Green. Much of central Kentucky saw more than a foot of snow from Wednesday into early Thursday. Image credit: wunderphotographer tightwad6972.

Winter’s last gasp back East?
March came in like the proverbial lion this week across the eastern U.S., taking one last swipe at the region before a much-anticipated warm-up. Heavy sleet and snow developed on Thursday from Texas to New York--including many of the same areas struck last week--within a band of moist upper-level flow extending from the tropical Pacific to the U.S. East Coast. The Dallas-Fort Worth airport received 2.5” of snow, yielding the snowiest March since 1947; amounts of 5+” were reported in the north DFW area. Central Kentucky was again buried in foot-plus accumulations: Lexington saw its heaviest 24-hour total (14.6”) and two-day total (17.1”) on record.


Figure 3. Temperatures ran the gamut across the Southeast as a strong cold front plowed across the region at 6 AM EST on Thursday, March 5. Image credit: WunderMap.


Parts of the Southeast got a brief taste of spring warmth before the cold roared back, leading to some unusually dramatic cool-downs. In Jackson, MS, the reading sank from a humid 81°F at 3 PM CDT Wednesday to a blustery, damp 28°F at 10 AM Thursday. On Friday morning, unprecedented cold for so late in the winter struck several locations, especially snowbound Kentucky.

All-time record lows for March:
Frankfort, KY: –10°F (old record –3°F, Mar. 7, 1960)
Urbana, IL: –7°F (old record –5°F, set Mar. 1906)
Paducah, KY: –6°F (old record –2°F, last set Mar. 6, 1960)
Pittsburgh, PA: –4°F (old record –1°F, last set Mar. 2, 1980)
Lexington, KY: –2°F (tied old record, last set Mar. 6 ,1960)
Harrisburg, PA: 0°F (old record 5°F, last set Mar. 10, 1984)

Toasty in Spain; howling in Italy and Croatia
Temperatures soared to summer-like readings along Spain's east coast early this week. On Monday, March 2, the towns of Sagunto and Elche both reached 30.4°C (86.7°F), a reading that’s close to the average daily high in August at the nearby coastal city of Valencia. These are the warmest temperatures known to have occurred on the Iberian peninsula (mainland Spain) so early in the year, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. The nearest rival is the 32.4°C (90.3°F) reported at Almeria on March 3, 1987. Warmer temperatures have occurred in wintertime on Spanish territory beyond the peninsula, including 34.2°C (93.6°F) at Melilla (a Spanish enclave on the north African coast, adjoining Morocco) on Feb. 27, 2010.


Figure 4. Firemen inspect a truck overturned by heavy winds, near Split, Croatia, Thursday, March 5, 2015. Winds caused traffic disruptions in much of coastal Croatia. Image credit: AP Photo/Ivo Cagalj, PIXSELL.



This week’s heat in Spain preceded a strong Mediterannean cyclone that produced extreme bora (cold downslope) winds and extensive damage, including many downed trees, in Italy and Croatia on Wednesday night (see Figure 4, above). According to Herrera, a gust to 209 km/h (130 mph), one of Italy's strongest on record, was reported at Gigliana, Tuscany. Even stronger gusts were reported in parts of Croatia, with heavy mountain snowfalls. Severe Weather Europe’s Facebook page includes a number of dramatic photos and videos of pounding waves along the Croatian coastline.


This week’s WunderPoster: Lenticular clouds
The latest installment in our WunderPoster series (Figure 5, right) pays homage to the surreal structure of lenticular clouds. These clouds form when a strong jet stream impinges on a mountain range and the resulting wavelike motion is trapped within a layer of stable air. An isolated peak can produce lenticulars resembling a stack of dinner plates (or flying saucers). All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Now it’s your turn: help us create a WunderPoster!
To celebrate our 20th anniversary, we’re looking to you to provide inspiration for a new WunderPoster. Our “picture yourself here” website has all the details.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. These sunset lenticulars along Colorado’s Front Range were featured by the U.S. Postal Service in 2004 in its “Cloudscapes” stamp series. Image credit: Carlye Calvin.


Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Anyone notice that cool tongue in the epac.


Yes it's quite obvious
Quoting 498. 1900hurricane:


It's been steady consistent here in southeast Texas. Then again, now that I've said that, it's going to end up showing only half an inch or so for me next run. :P


I'm mainly referring to it's precip outlook as a whole, but yeah, I wouldn't be surprised lol.
Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

listen here you that thing is wrong wrong I tell you
I hope your right....Now if we dont flood , things will be jake.
Quoting 500. hurricane23:

Question...I cant seem to acesss most noaa sites from lab top infact I keep getting this page.




Seem to remember something about Comcast DNS and .gov sites, changing to the Google DNS seemed to resolve the problem.
Quoting 503. hydrus:

I hope your right....Now if we dont flood , things will be jake.

well that flooding part nothing I can do about that
there is always draw backs
we get warmer temps but pay with running waters
I am hoping by the end of the week
that mom will make short work of the melting snow
this time next weekend should be next to nothing on the ground by me
maybe a layer of ice from where the snow use to be maybe
I hope it all melts then if we get any surprises
it won't last long in the warming march sun
Quoting 493. Jedkins01:



The GFS is a joke lately with precip accumulation, look at the ridiculous difference between the 12 and 6Z.
This is true , but a few of the local Mets say that the entire column is saturated , and more than 2 standard deviations for this time of year. Therefor the potential for flooding is real. The NAM has done well. It shows TN getting some , but only goes out to 84. Heavy rains for LA and TX.



Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Seem to remember something about Comcast DNS and .gov sites, changing to the Google DNS seemed to resolve the problem.


what..well how iam suppose to change that?
Quoting 507. hurricane23:



what..well how iam suppose to change that?


Google it
Quoting hurricane23:


what..well how iam suppose to change that?


Under the TCP/IP settings of your network adapter on your laptop/PC... set the Primary/Secondary DNS to:

8.8.8.8
8.8.4.4
Quoting 505. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well that flooding part nothing I can do about that
there is always draw backs
we get warmer temps but pay with running waters
I am hoping by the end of the week
that mom will make short work of the melting snow
this time next weekend should be next to nothing on the ground by me
maybe a layer of ice from where the snow use to be maybe
I hope it all melts then if we get any surprises
it won't last long in the warming march sun

I believe by Monday night the Mets and computers will have a good idea what will happen.
511. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu.
If
the ml-d is kept busy with the lite front just west of it (Fronts longitude stretches to Ohio, the central SE of USofA should see ~33% (localized 66% ) more precip. than predicted. Why? Don't ask its ml-d related.

On a related -3rd cousin from the mothers side) note:: Anyone notice the puff up yesterday 201503-07;1645 for ~4 hrs (dwnld yer SATs before their date exp.) just west of NJ as the front passed in the western side MAX ring of influence of ml-d, MAGIC!)
Quoting 494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya they are saying water conservation people after this week the ice will start to become more unstable in southern Ontario and use caution if venturing out onto the ice after this week


With the lack of snow here the ice is about 3 to 4 feet thick right now so I'mnot going to be worried about thin ice for a few weeks still...
Quoting 470. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS is showing snow/ice this upcoming Friday and Saturday for the Mid Atlantic Region. It will spread up to the Northeast.

Winter refuses to leave.lol.
913mb on the 12z ECMWF so far.

EDIT: Make that 909mb.

Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:

913mb on the 12z ECMWF so far.

EDIT: Make that 909mb.




So GFS is not alone on the very strong scenario.
European Sunday greetings - this time with flooding in Scotland ...

Landslip and flooding after heavy rain hits Scotland
BBC, 8 March 2015 Last updated at 15:54 GMT
Heavy rain in Scotland has caused a 100 tonne landslide and flooding on roads across parts of the Highlands.
The A87 Invergarry to Kyle of Lochalsh road was shut overnight at Cluanie but traffic is now getting through.
Some rivers reached their highest levels on record and eight people were rescued from a flooded caravan park near Beauly.
More than 30 flood warnings are in place across Scotland.
The A87 landslide came after 158mm of rain [=6,2 inches] fell in the area in the space of 36 hours. This saturated the slope above the road and caused about 100 tonnes of debris to slip down the hillside. ...
Whole article see link above.

Slideshow with some grave impressions:
Quoting 512. Frasersgrove:



With the lack of snow here the ice is about 3 to 4 feet thick right now so I'mnot going to be worried about thin ice for a few weeks still...
you be good till early april unless temps soar into the 70's or something
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:

913mb on the 12z ECMWF so far.

EDIT: Make that 909mb.


OMG
Quoting 513. washingtonian115:

Winter refuses to leave.lol.
he is leaving models just don't want to accept it
I see your above 0C Keeper!! Let the Melt season begin. Looks good going forward...
93P upgrade coming very soon.

93P INVEST 150308 1800 7.2S 168.4E SHEM 30 997
Well that cyclone isn't my problem.Good luck to whom ever has to deal with it.On a local note...

THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM DRIVING IT WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS SUCH THE RESULTING PERIOD
OF MODERATE RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOIL FROM SNOWMELT/RAIN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES /BOTH
RIVER AND AREAL/ BY WEEK`S END. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS
POSSIBILITY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX THURSDAY
NIGHT...IN THE HWO. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS HAVE ONLY
GRADUALLY TAPERED POPS DURING THIS TIME /RATHER THEN REMOVE THEM
ENTIRELY/.
Quoting 521. PedleyCA:

I see your above 0C Keeper!! Let the Melt season begin. Looks good going forward...
gonna be a nice melt week ahead there saying high 40's for highs on Tuesday and wedensday then we fall back a little to high 30's for next weekend any above 32 is good means more melting
Finally got above freezing today for the first time I believe in about 6 weeks. The forecast is for nice temps the rest of the week. Will have to wait now and see how long winter wants to stay around
It is above freezing here. 40's. 15mi South of Mass,NH.Vt. border.

All Products Copyrighted by The Ohio State University Department of Geography %u2022 Twister 2015 - See more at: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/charts/u s-temps#sthash.J3HlrgCr.dpuf
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 1:53 PM CDT on March 08, 2015
Overcast
37 °F / 3 °C
Overcast
Windchill: 27 °F / -3 °C
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 26 °F / -3 °C
Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 28 mph / 44 km/h / 12.3 m/s
Pressure: 30.01 in / 1016 hPa (Falling)
Looks good here too....
is that another system over northern queensland developing?
Quoting 522. Tropicsweatherpr:

93P upgrade coming very soon.

93P INVEST 150308 1800 7.2S 168.4E SHEM 30 997


NOAA up to 35 kts

20150308 | 1732 | SW-PAC | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -7.9 | -169.7 | 997 | 35

Link
Have been watching these guys for a couple of years now for info on hurricanes (cyclones) in the area around Austrailia Link

They post videos with models and forecasts also chase some storms
Got low to mid 70's in Florence, SC. About time. Looks like we may get one more freeze before April 1. Par for the course.

Quoting 527. stuff9:

It is above freezing here. 40's. 15mi South of Mass,NH.Vt. border.

Maybe a decent south swell all the way up to Oahu from 93.

Quoting 530. islander101010:

is that another system over northern queensland developing?
Quoting 513. washingtonian115:

Winter refuses to leave.lol.


Yep. And I am getting another taste of winter, which will be coming down to you in a another couple of weeks.
Quoting 530. islander101010:

is that another system over northern queensland developing?

Yes. The GFS bottoms it out at 917 millibars. The ECMWF is a good 76 millibars higher at the same time, lol.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALIBA (12-20142015)
22:00 PM RET March 8 2015
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba (996 hPa) located at 20.3S 52.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
Extending up to 20 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 25 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 21.2S 54.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 22.1S 56.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 24.1S 59.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 23.8S 59.1E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The system has obviously continued to intensify during the last 6 hours given the microwave imagery (cf windsat of 1434z) and ASCAT-B data of 1757z. The center, now seen on the Colorado radar, has show a fairly well defined presentation until just after 1800z. Given all this elements, the National Weather Service of Madagascar has named the system "Haliba".

Haliba is a midget storm (small winds radii given by the ASCAT) with a center overcast by a small but very cold cloud cluster with an average diameter of 75 NM.

The system is expected to track east southeastwards within a west to westerly steering flow driven by the low to mid-level near equatorial highs.

As the system moves away from the coasts and over warm enough waters, some slight development should continue. The impact of the westerly to southwesterly constraint (same direction than the forward motion) should be off-set during the next two days, due to the increasing speed of the displacement. The strengthening northwesterly constraint, and the slowing down of the system, should cause the rapid weakening of the system on Wednesday before extratropicalization.

Given the ongoing and expected impact of this system over portions of the Mascarenes islands (mainly Réunion island tomorrow), inhabitant of this area should monitor the progress of this system.
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 11:29 AM AKDT on March 08, 2015
Clear
26.2 °F / -3.2 °C
Clear
Windchill: 26 °F / -3 °C
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 10 °F / -12 °C
Wind: 1.0 mph / 1.6 km/h / 0.4 m/s from the WNW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph / 8.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.01 in / 1016 hPa (Falling)
Heading for the teens for Awhile.... ENJOY
STRONG SOLAR FLARE: Emerging sunspot AR2297 has erupted again, producing its strongest flare yet: an M9-class explosion on March 7th at 22:22 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash. Radiation from the flare ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere on the dayside of the planet. This caused a moderate HF radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. Mariners and hams operating at frequencies below 10 MHz woud likely have noticed disturbed and/or attenuated signals in the red zone of this NOAA blackout map.
Yeah... Tomorrow's high is only supposed to be 16F... With a low of ZERO.... It is colder out today and very clear, so the sun is shining brightly. That started yesterday afternoon. Although I don't mind overcast, the clear and cold days are nice too!

Fairbanks will be rather nippy at -11F... Although the later part of the week could see -20F or lower.

How's SoCal? How's your drought doing?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
6:00 AM FST March 9 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (999 hPa) located at 7.9S 168.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has not changed much in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent around supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap with white band yields DT=2.0, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.5S 168.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 9.0S 168.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 10.2S 169.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
Quoting Dakster:
>How's SoCal? How's your drought doing?
The drought's doing great--if you like drought, that is:



Courtesy of the ridge of high "Karin" it has been warmer today in Germany than in parts of the Mediterranean where low "Anton" (which caused the "bora" storm) is still hanging around.


Crocus in the City Park of my city Mainz today. Scores of people were out to enjoy the sun and the warmth, and some had their first BBQ in public places. In Erfurt, capital of Thuringia, with 16,1C (60,98F) the old record for a March 8 was broken by 0,4C (Source).


Meanwhile heavy snowfall at Mount Chortiatis, Northern Greece. Crazy weather, lol!


Temps 850hPa at noon in Europe according to ICON.
Quoting 541 Dakster:
Yeah... Tomorrow's high is only supposed to be 16F... With a low of ZERO.... It is colder out today and very clear, so the sun is shining brightly. That started yesterday afternoon. Although I don't mind overcast, the clear and cold days are nice too!

Fairbanks will be rather nippy at -11F... Although the later part of the week could see -20F or lower.

How's SoCal? How's your drought doing?


last map I saw no change. No trouble growing weeds though with the rain we've had. 75.2F
You have no trouble growing weed Ped?

You might want to move to Alaska, Colorado, or Washington State then... I don't know if I would be posting that on an open forum. (j/k)

BarBamz - Thanks for sharing!!!
Quoting 541. Dakster:
....(snip)

How's SoCal? How's your drought doing?

Once the rain season is over we should start seeing average precipitation.
(dark humor flag ON)







Quoting LowerCal:

Once the rain season is over we should start seeing average precipitaion.
(dark humor flag ON)










being in a 4 year drought is not funny
Taz - Somehow I don't think that you are going to break that 4 year drought just yet.
GEOS-5 has done pretty good with the coming Gulf moisture. It never wanted to turn it into a storm but it's moved around by some 100s of miles. Shows a High setting up. The flow under it & up the southwest side being brought up in the Gulf of Mexico to form a standing wave with that trough. There is times of heavy rain. Shows more for coastal and east TX and up the Mississippi River. Rest of the Southeast gets some, but not as much. Alot less for FL than eluded to a few days ago. Much of it is days of rain. GFS is more aggressive on the amount, especially for the deep south.




Once the trough pulls out GEOS-5 is showing a blob for Central America, from the tail.
Quoting 548. Tazmanian:




being in a 4 year drought is not funny

You're right, Taz. Current conditions are no laughing matter.

Here's some rain for CA..
Quoting Dakster:
Taz - Somehow I don't think that you are going to break that 4 year drought just yet.



nop i think it may this keep getting wores if that happens then may be it may be time to move too FL or some in
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's some rain for CA..



yep but after that storms comes and gone we may seee a big warm up the following week
TC HALIBA forecast by JTWC:

Quoting 553. Tazmanian:




nop i think it may this keep getting wores if that happens then may be it may be time to move too FL or some in
yeah it is too continue could be a ten year event or longer
Quoting 553. Tazmanian:




nop i think it may this keep getting wores if that happens then may be it may be time to move too FL or some in


If you go to Florida at least you already are a member of the best place to check out Hurricane forecasts and such!

I hope California gets the rains they need!
Quoting 554. Tazmanian:




yep but after that storms comes and gone we may seee a big warm up the following week


Going to not plant anything this year. Drought is too bad to waste money and water to be that selfish. I'm considering a more drought friendly landscape as well. Hopefully, El Niño gets stronger - but again that seems like it would affect a lot more people negatively than positively.
Quoting 475. N2TheWX:

Good afternoon.
Does Wunderground have a 15 day low temperature forecast map for the contiguous U.S.? I could only find 9 days out under the forecast maps.
Thanks.


Ok, I'll take that as a no, but as far as drought goes, in 2008 they said it would take North & Central Georgia 25 years to recover but fortunately within 2 years all the lakes were full and have had plenty of rain since. So there is hope that it won't be prolonged further. Looks like another wet week too.
Quoting 558. CraigsIsland:



Going to not plant anything this year. Drought is too bad to waste money and water to be that selfish. I'm considering a more drought friendly landscape as well. Hopefully, El Nio gets stronger - but again that seems like it would affect a lot more people negatively than positively.
Quoting 546. Dakster:

You have no trouble growing weed Ped?

You might want to move to Alaska, Colorado, or Washington State then... I don't know if I would be posting that on an open forum. (j/k)

BarBamz - Thanks for sharing!!!
its to be made legal all over soon solve a lot of problems doing such
I can remember Florida going through a drought and then all of sudden we were trying to figure out what to do with all the rain water...
Quoting 561. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its to be made legal all over soon solve a lot of problems doing such


It would seem to solve some financial and social issues in at least the US. Although the cartels will switch to something else no doubt. Not sure how Canada feels about it and what is going on there with it...

Putting this into the parameters of the blog - weather and climate will be important to locally grown crops.
Question - in the AFD below, it refers to 'higher probability of precipitation northwest of a hum to
asd line.
Not sure what they're referring to?

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
310 PM CDT sun Mar 8 2015

Short term...
changes are coming. It may not look like it very much based on
surface observation which still show 30 degree dewpoints in the area or
generally fair skies but the sounding tells a different story.
Precipitable water jumped by 50% this morning from ystrdy evening and
likely getting close to 1 inch at this time as middle level moisture
increases. Water vapor imagery shows a Pacific jet wrapping around
an upper level trough near the Desert Southwest bringing this
moisture over across Mexico and into the Gulf Coast region. Regional
radars show quite a bit of shower activity still to the west of the
County Warning Area across eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. This activity will
gradually shift eastward throughout the evening hours. The European model (ecmwf) and
hrrr indicate that showers will be tracking across the northwestern
half of the County Warning Area before midnight but after 00z. So have adjusted probability of precipitation
accordingly in terms of value and areal location. Meaning have kept
coverage about the same but most of the higher probability of precipitation northwest of a hum to
asd line.


The aforementioned upper level trough will gradually track southeast
from its current location to near the Texas/Mexico/Gulf intersection
by Thursday. Through this time...impulses along the jet will bring
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the County Warning Area Monday through
Thursday. Middle week likely being the peak of the heaviest activity as
precipitation water values increase to around 1.75 inches per model
soundings. Rainfall totals through this period still look to be on
the order of 3 to 5 inches.
Quoting 562. Dakster:

I can remember Florida going through a drought and then all of sudden we were trying to figure out what to do with all the rain water...
yes, I can remember a time here they were really getting worried that they would be running out of drinking water..guess we do indeed have droughts in florida huh.
LAbonbon - As much as I can tell and research, "ASD" seems like a typo...

Still have no idea on what they mean though.


Good luck to the folks down under - and a nice evening and a pleasant new week to everybody else in here!
Quoting 563. Dakster:



It would seem to solve some financial and social issues in at least the US. Although the cartels will switch to something else no doubt. Not sure how Canada feels about it and what is going on there with it...

Putting this into the parameters of the blog - weather and climate will be important to locally grown crops.


final comment on it
its pretty open here there are shops to go too as long as ya have a script from a doctor to get it
and most accept it as no different than drinking and should go under the same rules
only inside establishments and private home settings
not in the public places as far as I am concerned with it

anyway
water is dripping like crazy off the building here
in the above freezing temps
it will get faster melt wise
as we progress into the work week ahead
may even be able to wash down the garbage room and back outside garbage area
this week which will be nice too get done
needs it messy from the last 2 months of cold
569. vis0
Quoting 438. hydrus:

Good morning Bonnie..I managed to get rid of the script error, but not exactly sure how it happened. Kept toying with it until it was gone. I.E. is much fast in some respects , but only with the classic version.
GOOD NEWS::
 i was going to post some FFox addons that MIGHT or might not help, but though nahh it might be removed. 

BAD NEWZ:: i decided to placed that LOOONG comment here(pg2 of my last active blogbyte).

Once you get to "here", you're THERE at my ml-d reset PAGE.  DO NOT READ anything or you'll turn to pillars of kosher salt (no you shouldn't lick the screen) SCROLL ALL THE WAY... BETTER NEWS since its comment #52 its on pg 2 so not much scrolling just go to pg2 of my last active blog, scroll litely to comment #52.  There you'll find what could be helpful addons for FFOX. There are similar addons for chrome or shall i say extensions but since i am begginning to see the finger tip bones poking out from my fingers i'll type that up another day.

DARN I %$#!! FORGOT ONE this one:: it'll be on next cmmnt#53 at my blog.
Quoting 566. Dakster:

LAbonbon - As much as I can tell and research, "ASD" seems like a typo...

Still have no idea on what they mean though.

Thanks for checking, Dakster. I've got a couple glossaries and acronym lists bookmarked, but couldn't figure either term out.
I still haven't figured out why we don't have a pipeline along the paths of our interstate highway system that transports water from the areas of abundance to the areas in need. I would think that it could be classified under the likes of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956.
KOTG - Thanks.. Was just curious. Good luck with break up in Toronto. Lower elevations here are slushy and mostly snow free. I am at over 600' up and it is mix - above me the normally snow free mountains still are snow packed. Since the temp is dropping even into the Anchorage bowl which is at or below sea level, everything is "freezing" in place. The Sno machining season has begun with the state run mountain passes FINALLY opened for sno machining. I won't be able to partake this year, but glad my antsy cabin fever neighbors can.

Labonbon - I guess we will have to wait for a MET that is familiar with that setup to explain it to both of us then!
vis.93p.looking.better
574. txjac
After almost a full 7-8 hours of drizzly rain I'm at almost an 1".
It's really tapered off right now. We have flash flood warnings in place until Monday evening.
576. beell
Quoting 564. LAbonbon:

Question - in the AFD below, it refers to 'higher probability of precipitation northwest of a hum to
asd line.
Not sure what they're referring to?...




Station Identifiers
HUM-Houma, La
ASD-Slidell, LA
:)
Quoting 576. beell:



Station Identifiers
HUM-Houma, La
ASD-Slidell, LA
:)

Thanks! NOW it makes sense :)
Quoting 574. txjac:

After almost a full 7-8 hours of drizzly rain I'm at almost an 1".
It's really tapered off right now. We have flash flood warnings in place until Monday evening.


Yeah, but what was the soup recipe you wanted to try?
579. txjac
Quoting 578. LAbonbon:


Yeah, but was what the soup recipe you wanted to try?


Reuben soup ...I know, sounds crazy.
Reubens sandwiches are one of my guilty pleasures ...now in a soup fashion?
It's in the crock pot now ... fingers crossed, we'll see!
mentioned earlier the area near queensland. this area will not be 93 but a separate entity
581. beell
Quoting 577. LAbonbon:


Thanks! NOW it makes sense :)


YW. To be strictly correct, the forecaster should have used all caps-and perhaps the preceeding "K" (KHUM) for a US based Airport code.

A breezy little read here.
Airport ABCs: An Explanation of Airport Identifier Codes
Quoting 568. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



final comment on it
its pretty open here there are shops to go too as long as ya have a script from a doctor to get it
and most accept it as no different than drinking and should go under the same rules
only inside establishments and private home settings
not in the public places as far as I am concerned with it

anyway
water is dripping like crazy off the building here
in the above freezing temps
it will get faster melt wise
as we progress into the work week ahead
may even be able to wash down the garbage room and back outside garbage area
this week which will be nice too get done
needs it messy from the last 2 months of cold


My son goes to Ottawa in two weeks to compete in a hockey tournament. He's starting to ask about the weather. Too far out to tell for sure but climatology is still pretty chilly.. like Lake Placid was two years ago in early April when we did that venue.. that turned out to be a little below the seasonal mean.
583. beell
Quoting 574. txjac:

After almost a full 7-8 hours of drizzly rain I'm at almost an 1".
It's really tapered off right now. We have flash flood warnings in place until Monday evening.



About the same here on the east side of Harris county.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:

What? More snow? I hope that does not materialize.
RI
Quoting Gearsts:
RI


I'd be hesitant to call it rapid intensification just yet, but a CDO looks to be forming with the LLC directly underneath that incredible ball of -80C convection.
587. txjac
Quoting 583. beell:



About the same here on the east side of Harris county.


Funny how we live in the same "city" but are probably 40 miles away from each other!
And it's more funny to me when our weather is totally different from one another
Quoting 585. Gearsts:

RI



I think the agencies are being a little bit slow to do upgrades to this system. I thought a TCFA was going to be issued 12 hours ago but none yet.
vid player test




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In addition to 93P, the GFS has been trending increasingly bullish with the system northeast of Australia; the 0z run brings it down to 935 millibars.

If this comes to fruition, GFS gets serious points for being so persistent and catching on so early. If this doesn't come to fruition, it'll be pretty clear that the new upgrade resulted in an intensity bias, and the GFS won't hold as much weight during hurricane season.


Wow! 889mb!
Quoting 585. Gearsts:

RI



VERSUS NE CARIBBEAN :



Lol
Quoting 588. Tropicsweatherpr:



I think the agencies are being a little bit slow to do upgrades to this system. I thought a TCFA was going to be issued 12 hours ago but none yet.
soon link below is a keeper

Link
Quoting 591. CaribBoy:



VERSUS NE CARIBBEAN :



Lol


Hi my friend. Is March.
Quoting 591. CaribBoy:



VERSUS NE CARIBBEAN :



Lol
Lets move!
Quoting 593. hydrus:


looks like a bit of rain
Haven't been able to get on all day. Script messages.
Quoting txjac:


Reuben soup ...I know, sounds crazy.
Reubens sandwiches are one of my guilty pleasures ...now in a soup fashion?
It's in the crock pot now ... fingers crossed, we'll see!


Hey, Tx. Be careful when you eat it. I could be very hot on your fingers.

all the moisture coming in with warm air advancing northward eastern half southern north America
Quoting 575. LAbonbon:



*sigh*...figured that would happen. 60+ degree temps in winter never last very long.
Bring on the neverending RAAAAIIIIIN...
602. txjac
Quoting 599. Grothar:



Hey, Tx. Be careful when you eat it. I could be very hot on your fingers.


Okay, just sampled it ...and it's awesome ...wow, wasnt expecting that!
Taking some to a couple of my girlfriends at work ..I know that they love reubens
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//


Excerpt:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
Quoting 598. Grothar:

Haven't been able to get on all day. Script messages.
adjust the post count of comments in blog to 50



Quoting 603. nrtiwlnvragn:

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//


Excerpt:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.


It was about time.
606. vis0

Quoting 422. StormTrackerScott:




The stronger that system is the more this has some effect the strength of El-Nino later this summer. We may have a shot of making a run for Strong El-Nino for sure moderate which I think is a shoe in come July.
a "shoe in" as to science, boxes out the ability to think of all the possibilities. ...get it shoe in boxes ...oh well i tried. Was going to use  'glass slipper' but they broke when i dropped the other shoe. my 22cents, a moderate+ Niño starting ~fall to winter and will act as if 2 versions in el nene in 1, but another thing StormTrackerScott stated should be more on our minds, that is stronger land falling TS/Hurrs from the ATL. First things First. As we get to into early Spring  study your plans of evacuation (if routes have changed due to repairs) , read Patraps list of emergency needs etc.
WTPS21 PGTW 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 169.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S
169.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 082017Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. A 081857Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WELL NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
NNNN

Quoting 596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like a bit of rain
Wish I could send it to California or Brazil.....Good evening Keep.
Quoting 598. Grothar:

Haven't been able to get on all day. Script messages.


Hey Gro! Holding down the Fort in Hot South Florida for me?

Nice a crisp and cool up here. 27F and falling...
610. xcool
hey all
611. beell
Quoting 603. nrtiwlnvragn:

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//


Excerpt:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.


Doesn't appear to be any clear-cut steering except Coriolis for now! A trough approaching from the west on Thursday may nudge it into the Roaring 40's and over a patch of cooler water northeast of New Zealand.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
New Invest at South Pacific. (95P) This is the other cyclone that the models develop that threats NE Australia.

95P INVEST 150308 1800 13.0S 150.0E SHEM 15 NA
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
adjust the post count of comments in blog to 50





I have always kept it on 50.
Quoting Dakster:


Hey Gro! Holding down the Fort in Hot South Florida for me?

Nice a crisp and cool up here. 27F and falling...


Hey, Dak. It has been very rainy and warm. Looks like another scorcher of a summer for us down this way. Hope you are all settled in.
Quoting 611. beell:



Doesn't appear to be any clear-cut steering except Coriolis for now. A trough approaching from the west on Thursday may nudge it into the Roaring 40's and over a patch of cooler water northeast of New Zealand.


Roaring 40's ????

Appears slow movement SSE, still many models show significant intensification.
Quoting 613. Grothar:



I have always kept it on 50.
ok and still script errors I don't get them unless I try and view 100 or 200 comments at a time so I leave at 50 and just select page numbers to view back if I want or have too
Quoting 614. Grothar:



Hey, Dak. It has been very rainy and warm. Looks like another scorcher of a summer for us down this way. Hope you are all settled in.


Pretty much - thanks. Just hoping my health will settle in. Then I can make the all important decision of "Will I stay or will I go (back)".
Quoting 611. beell:



Doesn't appear to be any clear-cut steering except Coriolis for now! A trough approaching from the west on Thursday may nudge it into the Roaring 40's and over a patch of cooler water northeast of New Zealand.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

Yep, fortunately for it though, upwelling isn't really going to be an issue in the near term.



619. beell
Quoting 615. nrtiwlnvragn:


Roaring 40's ????

Appears slow movement SSE, still many models show significant intensification.


Well, true enough, it is a long way from 40S but the westerlies begin to increase closer to 20S-aided by the approaching trough.

And just in case, the definition from Wiki.

The Roaring Forties are strong westerly winds found in the Southern Hemisphere, generally between the latitudes of 40 and 50 degrees.[1] The strong west-to-east air currents are caused by the combination of air being displaced from the Equator towards the South Pole and the Earth's rotation, and there are few landmasses to serve as windbreaks.
620. beell
Quoting 618. 1900hurricane:


Yep, fortunately for it though, upwelling isn't really going to be an issue in the near term.






And then there's this. Vis seems to show almost too much outflow (shear)?
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW





621. beell
Anyway, I'll guess on no RI for the next 24 at least.
Since the Chinese took the film down, I'm putting it up!

Under the Dome: Investigating China's smog

Full film with English subtitles

Hi all,
Just checking in to see what's going own.
Good to see some of the older ones still here...

Taco :o)
Quoting 622. Gearsts:




More reasonable GFS dumped the sub 800,s and now is almost with ECMWF on the lowest pressure.
Y1K...


Quoting 613. Grothar:



I have always kept it on 50.
Quoting 625. Tropicsweatherpr:



More reasonable GFS dumped the sub 800,s and now is almost with ECMWF on the lowest pressure.
I expect a lot of hype with the GFS this year in the Atlantic side. Sub 900mb over Florida 192hours out ;)
Quoting 571. N2TheWX:

I still haven't figured out why we don't have a pipeline along the paths of our interstate highway system that transports water from the areas of abundance to the areas in need. I would think that it could be classified under the likes of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956.


Considering some of the whacko things that are built with our tax dollars, an East to West coast aqueduct(or vice versa) with Northern tributaries doesn't sound out of line dollar wise. Seems like that might solve a lot of problems for those in need. Plus it should be profitable for those providing the commodity.
Quoting 571. N2TheWX:

I still haven't figured out why we don't have a pipeline along the paths of our interstate highway system that transports water from the areas of abundance to the areas in need. I would think that it could be classified under the likes of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956.
The size of the pipe and/or the energy required to pump an appreciable amount of water through it long distances may be prohibitively expensive/impractical.
Quoting 620. beell:



And then there's this. Vis seems to show almost too much outflow (shear)?
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW







I'm actually not convinced shear is all that detrimental to 93P at the moment. Looking at the upper level winds, they all appear to radiate outwards from the center.



I think the main issue is actually the competing convection in the rest of the monsoon trough, especially during daylight hours. Once it separates itself from it, I think it'll take off.
Beell you are right.Center is on the southern end of convection.

93P INVEST 150309 0000 8.3S 169.6E SHEM 30 1000
Quoting 629. Forsaken:

The size of the pipe and/or the energy required to pump an appreciable amount of water through it long distances may be prohibitively expensive/impractical.


I don't know, our water in the Keys flows from SW Dade county to Key West, well over 120 miles with no big issues that I know of. Been that way since the Navy installed it in the 30's
Quoting 629. Forsaken:

The size of the pipe and/or the energy required to pump an appreciable amount of water through it long distances may be prohibitively expensive/impractical.
And the first time a semi driver fell asleep at the wheel and crossed the median it would be all over -- literally.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALIBA (12-20142015)
4:00 AM RET March 9 2015
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba (994 hPa) located at 21.0S 53.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 45 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 21.8S 55.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 22.7S 57.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 24.3S 58.6E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 23.9S 58.8E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The system shows an irregular central dense overcast-like pattern on infrared imagery with an average diameter of 90 NM. Based on various satellite estimates (KNES at 3.0, PGTW at 2.5 and ADT at 3.1) the intensity is raised at 40 kts. Mean sea level pressure estimate is supported by obs from buoy 56906 which reported at 2300z a corrected sea lea pressure at 996.7 hPa over the outer edge of the radius of maximum wind in the southwestern quadrant. The current position is based on radars data from Réunion.

The system is expected to continue to track east southeastwards within a west to westerly steering flow driven by the low to mid-level near equatorial highs. Wednesday, the system should slow down when the remnants of ex-tropical depression no11 are expected to merge within the circulation. A small loop, suggested by some guidance, is even possible. By that time some deep structure changes are expected to occur with a larger and more asymmetrical wind fields suggesting that the system may loose its pure tropical characteristics by that time. Thursday, the system should resume its southeastwards track with an ongoing extratrop process.

The environmental conditions are still rather good with good ocean heat content, good upper level divergence over the northeastern quadrant (but poor over the southwestern quadrant) and low shear just to the south of the upper level axis. These conditions are expected to slightly deteriorate later today with an increase of the westerly shear. The low level organization of this tiny system may also be impacted as the system will pass close to la reunion.

Given the ongoing and expected impact of this system over portions of the Mascarenes islands (mainly Réunion island tomorrow), inhabitant of this area should monitor the progress of this system.
"There were years when it was a long time between rains. In Tavernier H. S. McKenzie put in a storage tank behind the drug store (Copper Kettle restaurant in 1998) and hauled water from Homestead. He had a tanker truck that could haul 1,000 gallons. Henry Flagler had hauled in millions of gallons of water for his railroad crews and concrete. The railroad also hauled large tank cars of water when needed. It should be pointed out that today there are still homes in the Keys that use only cisterns for fresh water.

Not much is known of a freshwater desalination plant that was built on the lower portion of Lower Matecumbe Key. It was part of Camp 3 for the World War 1 veterans building the proposed bridge to span the highway water gap between Lower Matecumbe and Grassy Key. Jimmy Woods of Islamorada was a construction worker on the plant and relates how all testing was completed on Friday, August 31, 1935. Turnover and acceptance to the government was to take place on Tuesday after the three-day Labor Day weekend. On Monday, September 2, 1935, the hurricane struck and annihilated the camp. Strangely, the water towers withstood the wind and water of the 1935 hurricane. The two tanks are clearly visible in photos before and after the hurricane.

With the loss of the railroad because of the 1935 hurricane, the large quantities of fresh water transported by huge railroad tank cars also ceased. In 1937 the Florida Legislature enacted House Bill No. 1683 to create the Florida Keys Aqueduct Commission (FKAC). Governor Fred Cone signed the bill into law on June 11, 1937. Earl Adams was chosen as chairman at the first meeting on March 23, 1938. The following month, L. L. Lee and associates were selected to study and survey the project. The estimate was $2,500,000.

The Navy Base in Key West was reopened on November 1, 1939 and the early estimate of government use of water was 75,000 gallons a day. The existing Navy's desalination plant produced only 35,000 gallons a day.

The Navy decided to build a pipeline and Congress appropriated the money with the proviso that it be in conjunction with the State of Florida. This was done with a formal agreement between the Navy and the FKAC on March 29, 1941 with the FKAC paying one third of the cost. In September 1941 a resolution authorized the First National Bank of Miami to issue $1,750,000 of FKAC Water Revenue Bonds. A pipeline from the mainland had been envisioned for decades and the two-thirds federal financing made it a reality.

The U.S. Navy acquired 353 acres in Florida City on August 18, 1941 for a well site. After many surveys, on April 15, 1942, the Fairbanks Morse and Company started work on two 500-horse-power pumps for $44,862.35. The Navy's first plan was for a 12-inch pipeline but when the water plant indicated it could handle more, the pipe size was changed to 18-inch... "

Link

Edit: Well (no pun intended), I missed by a year or two).
Chillinintheykeys - I always enjoy reading about early Miami-Dade and Monroe County. Thanks for that posting.

I thought that some areas of the Keys had fresh water? One of the reasons the dry tortugas is called that is because there is no fresh water there...

I don't know what it would cost but pipe lining water from areas that typically have too much to areas that always need it, sounds like something the government could do. And then some feeder lines in from the North and South. Unless the East wants a huge population increase from the people of the West Coast that run out of water.
Quoting 602. txjac:



Okay, just sampled it ...and it's awesome ...wow, wasnt expecting that!
Taking some to a couple of my girlfriends at work ..I know that they love reubens
  

  Do you have a link to that recipe, or can I get  a copy of it.
Quoting 636. Dakster:

Chillinintheykeys - I always enjoy reading about early Miami-Dade and Monroe County. Thanks for that posting.

I thought that some areas of the Keys had fresh water? One of the reasons the dry tortugas is called that is because there is no fresh water there...

I don't know what it would cost but pipe lining water from areas that typically have too much to areas that always need it, sounds like something the government could do. And then some feeder lines in from the North and South. Unless the East wants a huge population increase from the people of the West Coast that run out of water.


I'm not sure, but the only area in the Keys that I know of that had natural fresh water due to the "lens effect" was Big Pine Key. The FKAA and the EPA has since made all those on BPK(that I know of) switch from well to Aqueduct. FKAA Water has won awards in Florida as the purest best tasting water in the state more than once... Go figure.

BPK freshwater lens:

Link
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST March 9 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (997 hPa) located at 8.2S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots within 60 to 180 nautical miles of center in the sectors from west through north to east.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent around supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap with white band yields DT=2.5, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.8S 169.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 9.3S 169.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 10.6S 170.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting 638. ChillinInTheKeys:



I'm not sure, but the only area in the Keys that I know of that had natural fresh water due to the "lens effect" was Big Pine Key. The FKAA and the EPA has since made all those on BPK(that I know of) switch from well to Aqueduct. FKAA Water has won awards in Florida as the purest best tasting water in the state more than once... Go figure.


Yes.. Dade County Water tests really good in the quality and taste department so that doesn't surprise me. I am lucky that I currently live in area that has good water too. Funny thing, it comes out of the tap inside the house at 35F... You need gloves to wash the car so your hands don't freeze. (Even in the summer when it is a scorching 65F out)
Since we are talking about ground water. What do you think of this?

Especially people like KOTG who are the ones that have a stake in this more than we do in the USA.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/outrage-boil s-over-as-bc-government-plans-to-sell-groundwater- for-dollar225-per-million-litres/ar-BBihSPQ

Quoting 641. Dakster:

Since we are talking about ground water. What do you think of this?

Especially people like KOTG who are the ones that have a stake in this more than we do in the USA.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/outrage-boil s-over-as-bc-government-plans-to-sell-groundwater- for-dollar225-per-million-litres/ar-BBihSPQ




First that I've heard of that... Seems pretty cheap!
Quoting 639. HadesGodWyvern:

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST March 9 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (997 hPa) located at 8.2S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots within 60 to 180 nautical miles of center in the sectors from west through north to east.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent around supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap with white band yields DT=2.5, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.8S 169.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 9.3S 169.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 10.6S 170.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)


finally -.-' zzzz'
Quoting 642. ChillinInTheKeys:



First that I've heard of that... Seems pretty cheap!


Nestle, who bottles the water and sell it to us in the USA will have to pay a whopping $597 under the plan for the water they use.

   Only made 77.8 here today.....
Quoting 645. PedleyCA:

   Only made 77.8 here today.....


Hey Ped, how do you like this forecast in Orlando?


Quoting 646. StormTrackerScott:



Hey Ped, how do you like this forecast in Orlando?


  Doesn't cool off much at night....
Quoting 647. PedleyCA:

Doesn't cool off much at night....


No it doesn't cool off much at night here in the sub tropics. Heat index during the day can add another 10 feels like degrees to the skin.

Quoting 625. Tropicsweatherpr:



More reasonable GFS dumped the sub 800,s and now is almost with ECMWF on the lowest pressure.

It will still be a monster, though...
Quoting 636. Dakster:

Chillinintheykeys - I always enjoy reading about early Miami-Dade and Monroe County. Thanks for that posting.

I thought that some areas of the Keys had fresh water? One of the reasons the dry tortugas is called that is because there is no fresh water there...

I don't know what it would cost but pipe lining water from areas that typically have too much to areas that always need it, sounds like something the government could do. And then some feeder lines in from the North and South. Unless the East wants a huge population increase from the people of the West Coast that run out of water.


Most folks would be surprised to know that the Dade County(Miami-Dade) seat was in the Keys until 1844:

Link

Link
Quoting LAbonbon:
Question - in the AFD below, it refers to 'higher probability of precipitation northwest of a hum to
asd line.
Not sure what they're referring to?

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
310 PM CDT sun Mar 8 2015

Short term...
changes are coming. It may not look like it very much based on
surface observation which still show 30 degree dewpoints in the area or
generally fair skies but the sounding tells a different story.
Precipitable water jumped by 50% this morning from ystrdy evening and
likely getting close to 1 inch at this time as middle level moisture
increases. Water vapor imagery shows a Pacific jet wrapping around
an upper level trough near the Desert Southwest bringing this
moisture over across Mexico and into the Gulf Coast region. Regional
radars show quite a bit of shower activity still to the west of the
County Warning Area across eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. This activity will
gradually shift eastward throughout the evening hours. The European model (ecmwf) and
hrrr indicate that showers will be tracking across the northwestern
half of the County Warning Area before midnight but after 00z. So have adjusted probability of precipitation
accordingly in terms of value and areal location. Meaning have kept
coverage about the same but most of the higher probability of precipitation northwest of a hum to
asd line.


The aforementioned upper level trough will gradually track southeast
from its current location to near the Texas/Mexico/Gulf intersection
by Thursday. Through this time...impulses along the jet will bring
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the County Warning Area Monday through
Thursday. Middle week likely being the peak of the heaviest activity as
precipitation water values increase to around 1.75 inches per model
soundings. Rainfall totals through this period still look to be on
the order of 3 to 5 inches.
Those are airport codes :

HUM - Houma, LA

ASD= Slidell, LA

since it's a public discussion and hardly anyone reading it is a pilot, they could just type out the name of the two cities...but I guess that must be pretty hard to do.
Link
My forecast video for the potential flooding in the south.
Quoting sar2401:
Those are airport codes :

HUM - Houma, LA

ASD= Slidell, LA

since it's a public discussion and hardly anyone reading it is a pilot, they could just type out the name of the two cities...but I guess that must be pretty hard to do.
It's got nothing to do with being "pretty hard to do". In fact, it's common convention to use the standard three-digit FAA station identifiers, and for a number of different--and entirely logical--reasons.
Trent I ran across that article and inexplicably didn't put it in my list. Thanks for the reminder!
Quoting 652. ChillinInTheKeys:



Most folks would be surprised to know that the Dade County(Miami-Dade) seat was in the Keys until 1844:

Link

Link


And all of Broward was in Miami-Dade Too.
Quoting Dakster:

And all of Broward was in Miami-Dade Too.

So was Palm Beach County
661. beell
Quoting 653. sar2401:

Those are airport codes :

HUM - Houma, LA

ASD= Slidell, LA

since it's a public discussion and hardly anyone reading it is a pilot, they could just type out the name of the two cities...but I guess that must be pretty hard to do.


Quite a few pilots read them-as well as the Aviation section contained in the AFD. The AFD's are also known as a "Technical Discussion". Although there is useful information for all contained in the AFD-they are primarily just that.
Trent it was -1 as recently as Saturday morning at Somerset. How are the pine beetles doing?
I have no problem using station identifiers in discussions. For that matter, when you pull up clips from The Weather Channel in the 80s and 90s, you frequently see identifiers on the radar shots--not explained, simply shown.
Quoting 660. BaltimoreBrian:


So was Palm Beach County


Yes... The times have sure changed.
Quoting 663. BaltimoreBrian:

I have no problem using station identifiers in discussions. For that matter, when you pull up clips from The Weather Channel in the 80s and 90s, you frequently see identifiers on the radar shots--not explained, simply shown.


I don't either, the context of the discussion just got me this time is all. I didn't mind it on a map, I knew/know what they meant. It was actually how I learned a lot of the TLAs for the airports around the US as a kid in the 80s.
Quoting 657. BaltimoreBrian:

Trent I ran across that article and inexplicably didn't put it in my list. Thanks for the reminder!


Brian when will people wake up? Do we have to take last year's biblical flood in Pensacola and position it right over Manhattan?
Quoting wxgeek723:


Brian when will people wake up? Do we have to take last year's biblical flood in Pensacola and position it right over Manhattan?


Trent, they probably won't wake up. Not as long as property developers pay off people. It is very hard to convince someone to understand something when he makes his salary for not understanding it. Sinclair Lewis said that, I think.

Try reading Carl Hiaasen novels. Dakster could probably tell you how accurate they are.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Most folks would be surprised to know that the Dade County(Miami-Dade) seat was in the Keys until 1844:

Link

Link
The whole way Monroe and Dade counties evolved has never made much sense to me. The Upper Keys are much closer to Miami than Key West so, just from a geographic perspective, they should be part of Dade County. The vast majority of Monroe County is located on the mainland west of Dade County and Monroe County provides no services there since it's it's almost 100% in the Everglades National Park. Everyone that lives there is a federal employee of family of a federal employee, so the Park Service provides all the services. The Keys gets split at mile marker 112 on the Overseas Highway anyway, with the area north is in Dade and south in Monroe. I imagine there must be some mutual aid agreements between the two counties. There aren't a whole lot of resources available in the Upper Keys from Monroe County compared to Dade. I'm sure there are good political reasons for all this but it doesn't make much sense for providing law enforcement and fire services.
Quoting beell:


Quite a few pilots read them-as well as the Aviation section contained in the AFD. The AFD's are also known as a "Technical Discussion". Although there is useful information for all contained in the AFD-they are primarily just that.
No pilot wouldn't understand Houma and Slidell. The vast majority of the public doesn't understand HUM or AFD. Do you want to communicate, or make airport codes the price of admission?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I have no problem using station identifiers in discussions. For that matter, when you pull up clips from The Weather Channel in the 80s and 90s, you frequently see identifiers on the radar shots--not explained, simply shown.
Since we don't see the identifiers at all today, TWC probably thinks there's a good reason not use them now. Why would something that was done 30 years ago mean it's a good idea to still do it today?
Quoting Grothar:
Haven't been able to get on all day. Script messages.

The transition from hieroglyphics to script can be challenging, but you'll get there :)
Quoting 667. BaltimoreBrian:



Trent, they probably won't wake up. Not as long as property developers pay off people. It is very hard to convince someone to understand something when he makes his salary for not understanding it. Sinclair Lewis said that, I think.

Try reading Carl Hiaasen novels. Dakster could probably tell you how accurate they are.


Perhaps more people need to make money knowing in then. As for the pine beetles, hopefully dead. I doubt they survived February, it was brutal. Something tells me a lot of invasive species that have worked their way up from the South to the Mid Atlantic have probably suffered the last two winters.

My friends and I are driving to Melbourne this Friday and spending the week for spring break. Hoping I can see some bad weather while I'm down there.
Quoting 668. sar2401:

The whole way Monroe and Dade counties evolved has never made much sense to me. The Upper Keys are much closer to Miami than Key West so, just from a geographic perspective, they should be part of Dade County. The vast majority of Monroe County is located on the mainland west of Dade County and Monroe County provides no services there since it's it's almost 100% in the Everglades National Park. Everyone that lives there is a federal employee of family of a federal employee, so the Park Service provides all the services. The Keys gets split at mile marker 112 on the Overseas Highway anyway, with the area north is in Dade and south in Monroe. I imagine there must be some mutual aid agreements between the two counties. There aren't a whole lot of resources available in the Upper Keys from Monroe County compared to Dade. I'm sure there are good political reasons for all this but it doesn't make much sense for providing law enforcement and fire services.


Well there is a lot of big money in Key Largo & Ocean reef which is closer to Miami. they provide a lot of the tax base to our County. Per capita, Ocean Reef contributes more than any other area in the Keys. Miami-Dade does not support the Keys in any fashion other than sending down... Well read our crime reports...
674. beell
Quoting 669. sar2401:

No pilot wouldn't understand Houma and Slidell. The vast majority of the public doesn't understand HUM or AFD. Do you want to communicate, or make airport codes the price of admission?


Learn the language or find a source of information that better suits your palate.

I have seen some egregious examples of over-abbreviating in the AFD's but airport and Nexrad ID's are fine. IMO, of course

I think the best word to describe this sea surface temperature configuration is "awful."

676. beell


Quoting beell:


Learn the language or find a source of information that better suits your palate.

I have seen some egregious examples of over-abbreviating in the AFD's but airport and Nexrad ID's are fine. IMO, of course

Of course. I have yet to hear why spelling out a name of the two anchors of a line is a worse way to communicate than using airport codes. I know many of those codes and know where to find the ones that I don't. I assume you do as well. Does that mean it's a good idea to expect all the others who read an AFD to just suck it up and figure it out? Use all the codes you want in the aviation section, but the discussion is read by people who don't know those codes. A technical discussion doesn't have to use jargon.
Quoting 675. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think the best word to describe this sea surface temperature configuration is "awful."




Looks like we need a couple of Gulf storms to cool things down before season!!!
OMG whats the BFD about AFDs?

Technical discussions are well, technical. Each part you don't understand is a learning opportunity.
680. beell
Quoting 679. BaltimoreBrian:

OMG whats the BFD about AFDs?


U/K ATT
Just checking in :) Been listening to a book on tape (it's awesome! and it has totally undermined my productivity this weekend...)

Just wanted to comment on a couple of posts:

JMO, but Canada is totally under charging for water. Great article, Dakster.

Never knew the history of water supply in and to the Keys - quite interesting posts - thanks, ChillinInTheKeys for the info :)

Brian - I have quite the backlog of articles to read from you and now a movie! I didn't know China was blocking it :(

wxgeek723 - what an eyeopener...coming soon to a state near you...how utterly offensive to force and instill ignorance among our government. I wonder how much federal funding they are currently getting that is related to or tied to climate change?

beell/sar/Brian - I see the airport code in the AFD discussion is still ongoing. I don't mind either way, I'm now more aware of their potential use. Though I'm getting a bit of deja vu that this may have tripped me up before... Usually the AFDs out of New Orleans mention towns, cities, parishes/counties, interstates, etc. Airport codes, from what I've seen, are a bit unusual. (I don't read the AFDs every day, but I do read them quite often.) It makes sense that they could be included as pilots regularly use the AFDs. I know now to refer to the station identifier list if I get stumped again :) (Edit - I don't read the aviation section, so I don't know if they're commonly used in that section of the AFDs.)

Not a drop of rain here yet; looking at the radar it looks to be here shortly.

Aaaand now back to the audiobook :D
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Well there is a lot of big money in Key Largo & Ocean reef which is closer to Miami. they provide a lot of the tax base to our County. Per capita, Ocean Reef contributes more than any other area in the Keys. Miami-Dade does not support the Keys in any fashion other than sending down... Well read our crime reports...
LOL. I know what you mean. Like I said, I'm sure there are good political (and financial) reasons why the counties got divided like they did. I imagine that, if Dade County knew what would kind of development happen in the Upper Keys, they might not have wanted to give it all back to Monroe back in 1850.
I have no problem with airport identifiers...short 3 letter cores used for decades. If you live near LGA or DFW or HMA or LAX and you're old enough to be interested in such things for purposes of weather, you should know the codes for airports near you or family. You probably should know them anyway...more useful to know than state capitals.
.
I understand your point when they start to abbreviate showers as SHRA or frontal passage as FROPA like they're back in the days in the days of saving ink on an old Xerox machine or even mimeograph...the days when bandwidth meant Mama Cass.
LAbonbon I think it would have been better if they had used the full identifiers, capitalized with a K at the beginning. But you learn to recognize the ones mentioned in your local AFD.

Check this link You can also put in your identifier, KASD, and the forecast grid will pop up just like entering a city or zip code.

KIAD
KBWI
KCAE
KATL

You'll see!
Quoting 683. CosmicEvents:

I have no problem with airport identifiers...short 3 letter cores used for decades. If you live near NWA or DFW or HMA or LAX and you're old enough to be interested in such things for purposes of weather, you should know the codes for airports near you or family. You probably should know them anyway...more useful to know than state capitals.
.
I understand your point when they start to abbreviate showers as SHRA or frontal passage as FROPA like they're back in the days in the days of saving ink on an old Xerox machine or even mimeograph...the days when bandwidth meant Mama Cass.

Yeah, that makes sense, but do you know the codes for airports in your local NWS' CWA for small towns (with tiny airports)? I'm not being snarky, btw. I know the codes for larger airports (that I could potentially use), but not the small ones.

Quoting 684. BaltimoreBrian:

LAbonbon I think it would have been better if they had used the full identifiers, capitalized with a K at the beginning. But you learn to recognize the ones mentioned in your local AFD.

Check this link You can also put in your identifier, KASD, and the forecast grid will pop up just like entering a city or zip code.

KIAD
KBWI
KCAE
KATL

You'll see!

Thanks, Brian. I'm going to look up how many airport codes are in 'my' NWS' CWA. I'm guessing it's quite a few, due to proximity to the GOM...but I'm not doing it tonight because that book is calling me...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
OMG whats the BFD about AFDs?

Technical discussions are well, technical. Each part you don't understand is a learning opportunity.
Area Forecast Discussion
This National Weather Service product is intended to provide a well-reasoned discussion of the meteorological thinking which went into the preparation of the Zone Forecast Product. The forecaster will try to focus on the most particular challenges of the forecast. The text will be written in plain language or in proper contractions. At the end of the discussion, there will be a list of all advisories, non-convective watches, and non-convective warnings. The term non-convective refers to weather that is not caused by thunderstorms. An intermediate Area Forecast Discussion will be issued when either significant forecast updates are being made or if interesting weather is expected to occur. Link
Do you see the word "technical" in the NWS definition?
If it is an El Nino year, where is the rain in southern California? I still feel like we are in this terminal Santa Ana condition, with high pressure blocking all of the storms from making it down here, and winter and spring feeling like summer. In fact, in San Diego, I feel like it's been summer for about the last five years. Can someone explain why southern California is not getting any rain if this is an El Nino year?

Chris
Good night all... Flying back from 60 miles North of ATL to my home 20 miles East of EYW tomorrow. (Note PA).
Quoting 678. ChillinInTheKeys:



Looks like we need a couple of Gulf storms to cool things down before season!!!


GOM is warm indeed
Quoting 675. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think the best word to describe this sea surface temperature configuration is "awful."




SST will still be WELL over the 26C threshold across the MDR during the hurricane season.

More important factors will be dry air, SAL outbreaks, vertical instability, and windshear... not to mention the El Nino strength...
691. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA (most earth selfies), Colorado State (Left img), aviationweather.gov (right img)
Crazie comment # 3,000?

Quoting 675. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think the best word to describe this sea surface temperature configuration is "awful."



How about that Gulf though?

Quoting 666. wxgeek723:



Brian when will people wake up? Do we have to take last year's biblical flood in Pensacola and position it right over Manhattan?
If people are opposed to learning, they WON'T learn. It's simple.
Quoting 199. hydrus:

Basically Modoki already , and has been for a while..Way to early , but if water temps out in the MDR warm a bit , things could be quite active. Water temps in the Western Atlantic are already looking above average , despite the Arctic air that has affected extreme western portion...If the Bermuda High is situated west of last year , it may increase chances of landfalling systems...my harmless opinion.


Don't let the current SST configuration fool you, by & large this has been predominantly a traditional, east Pacific El Nino, w/ considerable interference from the eastern hemisphere (especially in the early stages of the winter, hence a possible reason why the Hudson Bay-Greenland vortex was once again, stable). The westward shift in the anomalous +SSTs is more of a function of the climatological behavior of El Ninos as the relentless upwelling via advection of cool water within the Peru Current, coastal upwelling, & the natural easterly trades provide Sverdrup transport & equatorial upwelling that progressively undercuts the displaced warm pool, beginning in the vicinity of the NINO 1-2 regions in the eastern boundary region, to NINO 3-4 in the west across the equatorial Pacific. (In extreme El Ninos where the thermocline in the eastern Pacific may have be equivalent to or even momentarily deeper than the west Pacific like 1997-98 for ex, this initiation for anomalously cold water showing up at the surface after the peak of the EN event may actually appear around 100-120W.) Hence, in general, the NINO 1-2 regions are generally more volatile & experience a substantially larger amount of smaller-scale variance, making them naturally more susceptible to transient intraseasonal oceanic/atmospheric stimuli that don't necessarily reflect ENSO...

Top 20 El Ninos OND-MAM Eq Pacific SST. The +ENSO base state progressively morphs into the modoki look after peaking in & around NDJ. Hence, taking into account the aforementioned evidence, I suspect this supposed modoki EN in the Pacific is just a temporary feature & may revert back to the basin wide/hybrid look (SST wise) we observed this past winter as we draw closer to next fall & winter...





El Ninos tend to reach their maximum amplitude in/around the boreal winter solstice ~(NDJ), particularly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Even strong events experience the seasonal westward shift in anomalous +SST, but weaker El Ninos usually don't have nearly the volume of warm subsurface water, nor the atmospheric-oceanic coupling/bjerknes feedback to overwhelm this incessant & natural cold upwelling, and thus tend to more rapidly fade into a modoki/Warm Pool El Nino in their decaying stages...
(You may notice how much stronger the SSTs anomalies in the moderate EN composite, used different scaling for each category to pick up on smaller scale features in the SST distribution & implement as many contours as possible while trying to be somewhat reasonable.)




This past winter was certainly anything but a modoki El Nino, the signals in upper tropospheric VP, total precipitable water, and 850mb zonal winds are more consistent w/ an east-based El Nino...

DJF Pacific Basin Upper Level VP


DJF Eq Pacific 850mb zonal wind anoms


DJF Eq Pacific Precipitable Water anoms


You should also notice the westward tilt w/ height between the core of the anomalous upper level Velocity Potential, & the interface of the anomalous 850mb zonal winds (location of lower level convergence), this is a prevalent feature in equatorial waves and can be partially attributed, especially when dealing w/ the MJO, to variation in cloud type & population as a large-scale wave vs the progress of specific mesoscale convective complexes as a function of wave phase...


On another note, I have my doubts the NAO is going to flip for an appreciable period into the negative phase as is being depicted by many of the long range ensembles, sure, a surge in pacific convection will crank up the Pacific Jet & force a rossby wave train that induces anticyclonic wave breaking in the north Atlantic (which in years like this w/ shorter jet wavelengths, may be more efficient @ disrupting the vortex). This upcoming & primarily, Rossby Wave induced MJO wave, is likely once again being over amplified by the american guidance (the CFS is notorious for this kind of over-zealous. Consequently, based on the suspicion for an erroneous MJO forecast, you could also assume the american suite is over embellishing what's more likely to be (as we observed in late January/early February), largely an east-based -NAO surge, w/ perhaps given seasonal behavior, a bit more success in sustaining/intensifying the regime this time around. Although it's worth mentioning for future reference, both the European ensemble & CFS have even more issues picking up on MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean....



(pic via Kim et al 2014 "Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems")

Additionally, considering how the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex is fully coupled w/ its stratosphere counterpart & has been utterly dominating the mid/high-latitude mass transports, the guidance of mid-lat rossby waves, and thwarted previous attempts to destroy it, without the proverbial destruction of this vortex, it's current intensity & preceding ferocity/persistence may allow it to become effectively resistant to external tropical forcing, including the MJO... It's only when this exceedingly stable Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex is dismantled that we'll have a shot @ eradicating the +ENSO tendency & finally have a legitimate shot at a La Nina The most likely way to do this, IMO, will probably involve a sudden stratospheric warming event lowering the tropical tropopause & reversing the gradient (as a function of a transfer of mass), favoring the precipitous growth & initiation of a strong MJO wave (if I'm correct, ~85-90% of major SSWEs have been subsequently followed by massive MJO pulses), which can then interact w/ ENSO to attempt to kickstart a major global pattern change & reverse the ENSO base state...
Until then, I hope you enjoy the multi-yr El Nino :)

Honestly, it's about time, I was wondering when we'd see another one of these. Since 1900, we've yet to go 10 years or more between the ending & commencement of multi-yr +ENSO events, the last one ended in 2005, so this is coming just in time...

Here's the relatively short list of multi year +ENSO events since 1900

1899-1901
1904-1906
1913-1915
1918-1920
1929-1931
1935-1938
1939-1942
1951-1954
1957-1959
1968-1970
1976-1978
1986-1988
1990-1995
2002-2005
2014-?
Quoting 690. CaribBoy:



SST will still be WELL over the 26C threshold across the MDR during the hurricane season.

More important factors will be dry air, SAL outbreaks, vertical instability, and windshear... not to mention the El Nino strength...
I'm also of the opinion that sea surface temperatures are overrated. That being said, tropical cyclones are statistically more likely to form in areas of above normal sea surface temperatures, so we need the sea surface temperature configuration to be less... dismal.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm also of the opinion that sea surface temperatures are overrated. That being said, tropical cyclones are statistically more likely to form in areas of above normal sea surface temperatures, so we need the sea surface temperature configuration to be less... dismal.
That's why we learn from them every year.
Quoting 666. wxgeek723:



Brian when will people wake up? Do we have to take last year's biblical flood in Pensacola and position it right over Manhattan?

Hard to believe we're coming up on the 1 year anniversary of that, and for us in the Ft. Walton Beach area, we'll remember the freak wind storm that did significant damage in late March. Early 2014 was quite a time for much of NWFL.
698. vis0

Quoting 681. LAbonbon:

Just checking in :) Been listening to a book on tape (it's awesome! and it has totally undermined my productivity this weekend...)

Just wanted to comment on a couple of posts:

JMO, but Canada is totally under charging for water. Great article, Dakster.

Never knew the history of water supply in and to the Keys - quite interesting posts - thanks, ChillinInTheKeys for the info :)

Brian - I have quite the backlog of articles to read from you and now a movie! I didn't know China was blocking it :(

wxgeek723 - what an eyeopener...coming soon to a state near you...how utterly offensive to force and instill ignorance among our government. I wonder how much federal funding they are currently getting that is related to or tied to climate change?

beell/sar/Brian - I see the airport code in the AFD discussion is still ongoing. I don't mind either way, I'm now more aware of their potential use. Though I'm getting a bit of deja vu that this may have tripped me up before... Usually the AFDs out of New Orleans mention towns, cities, parishes/counties, interstates, etc. Airport codes, from what I've seen, are a bit unusual. (I don't read the AFDs every day, but I do read them quite often.) It makes sense that they could be included as pilots regularly use the AFDs. I know now to refer to the station identifier list if I get stumped again :) (Edit - I don't read the aviation section, so I don't know if they're commonly used in that section of the AFDs.)

Not a drop of rain here yet; looking at the radar it looks to be here shortly.

Aaaand now back to the audiobook :D


Quoting 690. CaribBoy:



SST will still be WELL over the 26C threshold across the MDR during the hurricane season.

More important factors will be dry air, SAL outbreaks, vertical instability, and windshear... not to mention the El Nino strength...


The SST anomalies/configuration are a reflection & decent/reliable proxy of the anomalous large-scale regions of convergence & upward motion, & even to an extent vertical instability, wind shear, intensity of the SAL, etc.. the actual SSTs are important, but it's all relative... To be quite frank, the AMO is probably one of the worst positions you could ask for if you want to see a big hurricane season anytime soon. In terms of the AMO alone, hardly anything is worse than having it in a state of utter confusion, & consistently sputtering along in/around neutral territory w/ the interdecadal tendency biased negative (i.e. a falling AMO)...
Definitely think this upcoming MJO pulse is "false" in some sense & the RMM EOFs are not picking up not an actual MJO pulse here. Seeing westerly propagation of anomalous westerly 850mb winds is raising some huge red flags, especially considering the MJO usually progresses eastward... This kind of signature is more consistent w/ a powerful westward/poleward propagating Equatorial Rossby Wave, not the MJO itself. However, since the MJO structure is best described as a slowly propagating mixed Rossby-Kelvin wave mode, we'll probably see the RMM MJO indices project the MJO w/ decent amplitude in the Pacific, possibly only to lose it once again & fall back into the COD as it hits the western hemisphere, decoupling from the powerful Eq Rossby Wave & +SSTs within the (temporary?) warm pool El Nino, but only time will tell on that...

701. JRRP
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 3 h Hace 3 horas
Weak El Nino plus cold AMO means another low ACE hurricane season, but in close development threats remain. Deep tropics less than ave
Quoting 701. JRRP:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi %uFFFD 3 h Hace 3 horas
Weak El Nino plus cold AMO means another low ACE hurricane season, but in close development threats remain. Deep tropics less than ave


Active season =/= landfalls. If anything there's reason to believe stronger landfalling seasons result from less storms forming in the deep tropics. Less time to recurve.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
1:49 PM WST March 9 2015
===================================
A tropical low is forming south of Indonesia. There is only a small chance of this low developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday. However conditions become very favorable from Wednesday onwards and it is likely that a tropical cyclone will have formed by late Wednesday or during Thursday. This system is likely to pose a threat to coastal communities later in the week or over the weekend. People are urged to continue to monitor outlooks and forecasts as the system develops.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: HIGH
Thursday: HIGH

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 9 2015
======================================
A tropical low situated south of Papua New Guinea is expected to move slowly westwards while gradually developing over the next few days. At this stage it is anticipated that the low could form into a tropical cyclone by Thursday as it moves across the northwest Coral Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: HIGH
Go home, GFS, you're drunk.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALIBA (12-20142015)
10:00 AM RET March 9 2015
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba (994 hPa) located at 21.5S 54.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 22.3S 55.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 23.2S 56.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 24.2S 58.2E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 25.5S 62.1E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The system is expected to continue to track southeastwards within a west to westerly steering flow driven by the low to mid-level near equatorial highs. Wednesday, the system should slow down when the remnants of ex-tropical depression no. 11 are expected to merge within the circulation. By that time some deep structure changes are expected to occur with a larger and more asymmetrical wind fields suggesting that the system may loose its pure tropical characteristics by that time. Thursday, the system should resume its southeastwards track with an ongoing extratrop process.

The environmental conditions are still rather good with good ocean heat content good upper level divergence over the northeastern quadrant and low shear just to the south of the upper level axis. These conditions are expected to slightly deteriorate later today with an increase of the westerly shear.

Given the ongoing and expected impact of this system over portions of the Mascarenes islands (mainly Réunion island tomorrow), inhabitant of this area should monitor the progress of this system.
706. vis0
Real SAT img NOT REAL NULLSCHOOL. Am testing out a background replacement for another blog site, comparing chroma keying opacity here & there.
Don't think of it as me using WxU, think of it , IF this works there i'll spend less time here (not leaving just less time..maybe i'll cut down to only 26hrs a day/)
http://youtu.be/hvcZvxriG1U (600x600) pho-nullschool TEAXAS style

707. 882MB




GALE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 09/0704 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4
SOUTH 169.8 EAST AT 090600 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 8.4S 169.8E AT 090600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 100600 UTC.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY ONE (11F)
18:00 PM FST March 9 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category One (995 hPa) located at 8.4S 169.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved past 24 hours. Primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center. Convection remains persistent. System lies under an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on visible yields DT=3.0, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.9S 170.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 9.5S 170.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 10.9S 170.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)


Tropical Depression possible in 48 hours in the western pacific ocean.
TC Seventeen as per the 0900Z JTWC advisory that just came out. Shows it becoming a Category 4 (SSHWS) in a few days as it moves southeastward.
Good morning. And for what it's worth: the odd fully resoluted operational GFS map of surface pressure (which isn't the same as MSLP = mean surface level pressure, as I've learned thanks to Levi) still shows Pam with lowest pressure below 900mb (885) on Friday. Cannot see what happens further on as the cyclone is running out of map, at least as much as I can see ;-)


Source.
Good morning.

First track by JTWC moves PAM between islands.Hopefully that is the case but is early as changes can occur.

Scotland will have to deal with stormy cyclone "Denis" the next hours:








For people who still love snow this year, lol: Another impressive video from the mountains in central Italy:


March 6: Spectacular images from upper Molise. Heroic work of the Commander of the Municipal Police and volunteers in Pescopennataro to allow pedestrian traffic to citizens imprisoned at home. Snow in some areas is well over two meters in height.

Heavy snowfall in the Balkans as well:
Snow-hit Bulgaria regions declare state of emergency
Al JazeeraBy Rob McElwee | Al Jazeera - 1 hour 9 minutes ago

Tens of thousands without electricity as snow heaps southern Bulgaria
Written by The Sofia Globe staff on March 8, 2015 in Bulgaria
----------------

Have a nice day!
extremely tired this morning is is the weather? oh yeah its time change. the children are riding their bikes to school in the dark. since fuel is cheaper nowadays they ought to move this time change back further into late april.
back to sub-900



however this cyclone is unimpressive to me at this point. Lots of cold tops but not much organization at this point.
719. yoboi
Quoting 656. Neapolitan:

It's got nothing to do with being "pretty hard to do". In fact, it's common convention to use the standard three-digit FAA station identifiers, and for a number of different--and entirely logical--reasons.


I understand but with the majority of people all it does is confuse people.....Why not use plain talk when trying to inform the public???? It would seem the objective would be to provide clear and accurate data to the public....No???
Good morning, WU.

Not sure if everyone here has seen it, but Dr. Marshall Sheperd and Dr. Chuck Doswell posted an interesting blog over the weekend: "Standing Up For Meteorologists".
Mets in Nashville growing more concerned about a flooding event...

CONCERNS ARE GROWING ABOUT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MODELS ARE
PRODUCING THIS WEEK. TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING MORE
THAN THAT. ON TOP OF AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THIS COULD SPELL
FLOODING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TN.

BOTH SYSTEMS THIS WEEK ARE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP IN A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER TEXAS. TUESDAY`S SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STREAMING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT A
BIT...WHICH PROVIDES SOME WORRY ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EARLIER
THAN WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT LAST NIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME
SPOTS POTENTIALLY SEEING A BIT MORE THAN THAT...IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BEFORE A SHORT RESPITE AHEAD OF THE SECOND
OF OUR TWO SYSTEMS. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THIS SECOND
SYSTEM IS GETTING RAMPED UP NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND STARTS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS.
MUCH LIKE THE FIRST SYSTEM...FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES ARE COMMON THROUGHOUT. THIS IS STILL 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND WITH A DRIVING LOW LEVEL JET
IN BOTH CASES...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO ENSUE. THE
THURSDAY-THUR NIGHT-FRIDAY SYSTEM IS STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE 2 TO 3
MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL. WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING THUNDER AGAIN AS
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-
STATE.

AT THIS TIME...IT`S THE CULMINATION OF ALL OF THIS RAIN...TUESDAY`S
1 TO 2 INCHES...THE LINGERING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
THURSDAY`S SYSTEM DUMPING ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP OF ALL OF
THAT WHICH HAS ME WORRIED ABOUT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. FOR THIS
REASON...I AM GOING TO GO AHEAD AND BEGIN HIGHLIGHTING THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH THE FOCUS
ON A POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH BEING ISSUE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY TO
COVER THURSDAY`S ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...BUT KEEP IN MIND...IF
TUESDAY`S FRONT SLOWS AS SUGGESTED...THE NEED MIGHT ARISE FOR A
FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED EARLIER THAN WEDNESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING WHEN THE WATER SPIGOT
WILL FINALLY GET TURNED OFF. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHERE THE EURO IS PROGRESSIVE
AND PUSHES THE RAINFALL OUT OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS.

UNGER
Up to 45kts.

17P PAM 150309 1200 8.4S 170.3E SHEM 45 989
sorry for double post.
Quoting 694. Webberweather53:



Don't let the current SST configuration fool you, by & large this has been predominantly a traditional, east Pacific El Nino, w/ considerable interference from the eastern hemisphere (especially in the early stages of the winter, hence a possible reason why the Hudson Bay-Greenland vortex was once again, stable). The westward shift in the anomalous +SSTs is more of a function of the climatological behavior of El Ninos as the relentless upwelling via advection of cool water within the Peru Current, coastal upwelling, & the natural easterly trades provide Sverdrup transport & equatorial upwelling that progressively undercuts the displaced warm pool, beginning in the vicinity of the NINO 1-2 regions in the eastern boundary region, to NINO 3-4 in the west across the equatorial Pacific. (In extreme El Ninos where the thermocline in the eastern Pacific may have be equivalent to or even momentarily deeper than the west Pacific like 1997-98 for ex, this initiation for anomalously cold water showing up at the surface after the peak of the EN event may actually appear around 100-120W.) Hence, in general, the NINO 1-2 regions are generally more volatile & experience a substantially larger amount of smaller-scale variance, making them naturally more susceptible to transient intraseasonal oceanic/atmospheric stimuli that don't necessarily reflect ENSO...

Top 20 El Ninos OND-MAM Eq Pacific SST. The +ENSO base state progressively morphs into the modoki look after peaking in & around NDJ. Hence, taking into account the aforementioned evidence, I suspect this supposed modoki EN in the Pacific is just a temporary feature & may revert back to the basin wide/hybrid look (SST wise) we observed this past winter as we draw closer to next fall & winter...





El Ninos tend to reach their maximum amplitude in/around the boreal winter solstice ~(NDJ), particularly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Even strong events experience the seasonal westward shift in anomalous +SST, but weaker El Ninos usually don't have nearly the volume of warm subsurface water, nor the atmospheric-oceanic coupling/bjerknes feedback to overwhelm this incessant & natural cold upwelling, and thus tend to more rapidly fade into a modoki/Warm Pool El Nino in their decaying stages...
(You may notice how much stronger the SSTs anomalies in the moderate EN composite, used different scaling for each category to pick up on smaller scale features in the SST distribution & implement as many contours as possible while trying to be somewhat reasonable.)




This past winter was certainly anything but a modoki El Nino, the signals in upper tropospheric VP, total precipitable water, and 850mb zonal winds are more consistent w/ an east-based El Nino...

DJF Pacific Basin Upper Level VP


DJF Eq Pacific 850mb zonal wind anoms


DJF Eq Pacific Precipitable Water anoms


You should also notice the westward tilt w/ height between the core of the anomalous upper level Velocity Potential, & the interface of the anomalous 850mb zonal winds (location of lower level convergence), this is a prevalent feature in equatorial waves and can be partially attributed, especially when dealing w/ the MJO, to variation in cloud type & population as a large-scale wave vs the progress of specific mesoscale convective complexes as a function of wave phase...


On another note, I have my doubts the NAO is going to flip for an appreciable period into the negative phase as is being depicted by many of the long range ensembles, sure, a surge in pacific convection will crank up the Pacific Jet & force a rossby wave train that induces anticyclonic wave breaking in the north Atlantic (which in years like this w/ shorter jet wavelengths, may be more efficient @ disrupting the vortex). This upcoming & primarily, Rossby Wave induced MJO wave, is likely once again being over amplified by the american guidance (the CFS is notorious for this kind of over-zealous. Consequently, based on the suspicion for an erroneous MJO forecast, you could also assume the american suite is over embellishing what's more likely to be (as we observed in late January/early February), largely an east-based -NAO surge, w/ perhaps given seasonal behavior, a bit more success in sustaining/intensifying the regime this time around. Although it's worth mentioning for future reference, both the European ensemble & CFS have even more issues picking up on MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean....



(pic via Kim et al 2014 "Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems")

Additionally, considering how the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex is fully coupled w/ its stratosphere counterpart & has been utterly dominating the mid/high-latitude mass transports, the guidance of mid-lat rossby waves, and thwarted previous attempts to destroy it, without the proverbial destruction of this vortex, it's current intensity & preceding ferocity/persistence may allow it to become effectively resistant to external tropical forcing, including the MJO... It's only when this exceedingly stable Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex is dismantled that we'll have a shot @ eradicating the +ENSO tendency & finally have a legitimate shot at a La Nina The most likely way to do this, IMO, will probably involve a sudden stratospheric warming event lowering the tropical tropopause & reversing the gradient (as a function of a transfer of mass), favoring the precipitous growth & initiation of a strong MJO wave (if I'm correct, ~85-90% of major SSWEs have been subsequently followed by massive MJO pulses), which can then interact w/ ENSO to attempt to kickstart a major global pattern change & reverse the ENSO base state...
Until then, I hope you enjoy the multi-yr El Nino :)

Honestly, it's about time, I was wondering when we'd see another one of these. Since 1900, we've yet to go 10 years or more between the ending & commencement of multi-yr +ENSO events, the last one ended in 2005, so this is coming just in time...

Here's the relatively short list of multi year +ENSO events since 1900

1899-1901
1904-1906
1913-1915
1918-1920
1929-1931
1935-1938
1939-1942
1951-1954
1957-1959
1968-1970
1976-1978
1986-1988
1990-1995
2002-2005
2014-?
Great post Webber, I still think this will be more of a Modoki setup and what ever type of Nino we get this summer will be weak and have very little influence on this upcoming summer forecast.
Cyclone Pam is producing some seriously impressive convection this morning as it continues to steadily intensify. A Rapidscat pass from 5z showed several 50kt wind barbs.


I personally don't understand why we don't just abolish DST. JMO. We humans have created this artificial concept and now we seem to be grasping to find reasons to support its existence.

Quoting 715. islander101010:

extremely tired this morning is is the weather? oh yeah its time change. the children are riding their bikes to school in the dark. since fuel is cheaper nowadays they ought to move this time change back further into late april.
15:00 UTC warning for PAM by JTWC:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cyclone Pam is producing some seriously impressive convection this morning as it continues to steadily intensify. A Rapidscat pass from 5z showed several 50kt wind barbs.



TA
i'm somewhat confused on the track of this one . Not that familiar with Pacific TCs I was under the impression at that Lat. they went E to W .
Is this SE track normal and if so is New Zealand in harms way?
GFS is really focusing in on the Northeast (NYC and areas to the west specifically) for some Winter weather this weekend.
732. JRRP
Quoting KoritheMan:


Active season =/= landfalls. If anything there's reason to believe stronger landfalling seasons result from less storms forming in the deep tropics. Less time to recurve.

yeah.. good point
1992
Only 7 total storms
4 Hurricanes
1 Major (Andrew)

1992 season reminds me of a slow season that no one will ever forget because of Andrew.



Aug, 23 landfall was on Aug. 24 (my birthday)
any one rember the supper LA Nino ?? you think will will ever see other one like it

i remember 92. dr. john hope was running the show internet was beginning. had my old apple performer. blogging started right afterwards
92 also remember dr william gray saying eventually we would enter an era with allot of activity. he was so right
On a somewhat unrelated note, after digging thru the NC Climate Office database & NWS NOWData, I find it hard to believe how cold & snowy it was in NC in March 1960...

Against the 1981-2010 base period, temps were >4-5 standard deviations below normal, whoa...


I'm perfectly fine w/ seeing one 3-4"+ snowstorm in a given winter, but I would take 2 back-to-back storms in a heartbeat, even if it's March...





Quoting 731. Sfloridacat5:

GFS is really focusing in on the Northeast (NYC and areas to the west specifically) for some Winter weather this weekend.



please.... make it stop...
Quoting 728. HaoleboySurfEC:

I personally don't understand why we don't just abolish DST. JMO. We humans have created this artificial concept and now we seem to be grasping to find reasons to support its existence.


I agree that the time change is disruptive, but I'll take the light in the evening.

The time changes, both in spring and in the fall, increase the risk of accidents. The Spring spike in accidents is directly a result of "losing" and hour of sleep (NEJM). This is a temporary effect - one from "jet lag". The fall spike is a result of losing daylight in the evening, when we are most active (Time). This is a more long-lived risk.

Even though I have two young children that start school at 8AM, I actually prefer the light in the afternoon and would like to see permanent DST because of the psychological effect of having light in the evening (Seasonal Affective Disorder).
740. bwi
Although it's only indirectly weather related, this might turn out to be the most important climate/weather story of 2015: Chinese journalist Chai Jing's documentary "Under the Dome" about China's air pollution. It's riveting, even with subtitles. It had approximately 150 million views in China before being censored earlier this week. The sort of work that could have a lasting impact on China's emissions of CO2 as well as particulate smoke.
shutting out an individual of heat while the rest of the world burns is ridiculous. jsut like guns there is going to be a buying surge of wood burning stoves and heaters.
Quoting 741. islander101010:

shutting out an individual of heat while the rest of the world burns is ridiculous. jsut like guns there is going to be a buying surge of wood burning stoves and heaters.

Some states have already been implementing this. To me, it's similar to the implementation of emissions standards of cars. Back then, some people freaked out, too. But people are still driving...that didn't change...the only thing that really did change was air quality, and that was for the better.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I've been following El Nino since high school in 1998,part of the Cool Space program at GSFC in Greenbelt,MD.
This El Nino died around Dec 28th and had been a weak La Nina ever since. Go back to the summer when the exceptional cool air mass hit the US in July with smoke from the Siberia wild fires. The Pacific cooled then as it did this time 8 months later.
It looks like another downward Kelvin wave is moving eastward and will accelerate the cooling process. Should be a pretty good La Nina. When I hear these "great scientists" calling ENSO phases I literally laugh. I figured out on 7/14/2000 the different phases of ENSO in the Pacific. NO nino doesn't exist the atmosphere understands the difference between an extremely weak el nino and La nina. Scientists don't...
ENSO acts as a thermodynamic "reset date" and each phase has a distinct period...me Aug 2003 in a paper called "resetting the weather".
The Atlantic(2/14/07 me)as a phase and so does the Indian Ocean(2/19/10 me). The Pacific and Atlantic oceans share the same energy system according to my equations and the Indian Ocean has its own system.
Each space on Earth has three different potential highs and lows for each day. One for each ocean. What we see is in terms of weather is the atmosphere merely bouncing back and forth between all 3 systems.
I've built a 65 city weather model across the Mid-Atlantic that enables me see these potentials. I used them to forecast cold fronts and storms in '13/'14 20 days in advance. I quit publicly forecasting that far in advance when the US Govt sent a drone equipped with microwave lasers to zap me in my own kitchen. My strawberry plant held the truth as it was parted down the middle...and I have clear cut photographs. I can clearly see that those claiming weather modification doesn't exist or 1F doesn't matter are just noise makers in the parking lot. If you have a set of equations that is a differential on the numerator which includes past temperatures and a fixed denominate then 1F could clearly matter if the quotant was then applied to a Tangent...