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Bitter and Balmy: Local Highlights from an Astounding February

By: Bob Henson 4:11 PM GMT on March 02, 2015

We won’t have the full state-by-state picture of February’s U.S. climate for a few days, but the outlines are abundantly clear from city climate summaries issued on Sunday. It’s been almost 40 years since the nation has seen a month so starkly divided between a cold east and warm west. The statistics bring to mind early 1977, when snowflakes fell for the first and only time on Miami Beach’s art deco buildings while skiers in the Rockies found themselves hunting in vain for fresh powder. A more distant analog for the sharp eastern cold is January 1934, as evident in the records broken below. This year millions of people experienced either the warmest or coldest February for their locations, with records in some cases going back more than 100 years. A number of cities had their coldest average temperature for any month on record—truly stunning in a climate that’s running close to a record-high global air temperature. Meanwhile, February proved to be the warmest winter month ever documented across a huge swath of the West. Alaska wasn’t as consistently warm as parts of California through the month, but a few extremely mild air masses pushed into the state, helping produce the first thundersnow on record in Nome and an all-time monthly high of 53°F in the town of Homer.



Figure 1. Instead of slowly rising through February, as climatology would have it, daily highs and lows in Syracuse, NY, sagged into colder and colder realms as the month went by. Each dashed column represents one month, with dark blue traces showing observed highs and lows. The green band indicates 30-year average highs and lows, with pink and blue showing daily record highs and lows, respectively. Image credit: NWS/Binghamton, NY.

Below is just a sampling of the many monthly records set at various points in the past four weeks. One hint of the state records to come: according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center, Maine had its coldest average temperature of any February, with a mere 2.5°F for the entire state.

Coldest month on record
Bangor, ME: 6.1°F, old record 8.4°F (Jan. 1994)
Syracuse, NY: 9.1°F; old record 12.1° (Feb. 1934)
Buffalo, NY: 10.9°F; old record 11.6° (Feb. 1934)
Rochester, NY: 12.2°F, old record 12.6°F (Feb. 1934)
Worcester, MA: 14.2°F; old record 14.4°F (Feb. 1934)

Coldest February on record
Caribou, ME: 2.8°F; old record 4.1°F (1993)
Portland, ME: 13.8°F; old record 13.9°F (1934)
Youngstown, OH: 13.7°F; old record 15.2°F (1934)
Cleveland, OH: 14.3°F; old record 15.2°F (1875)
Chicago, IL: 14.6°F; tied with Feb. 1875
Hartford, CT: 16.0°F; old record 16.5°F (1934)
Harrisburg, PA: 20.9°F; old record 21.4°F (1934)

Warmest winter month on record (Dec., Jan., Feb.)
Salt Lake City, UT: 43.9°F; old record 42.9°F (Feb. 1907)
Reno, NV: 46.3°F; old record 46.0°F (Feb. 1995)
Seattle, WA: 48.8°F; old record 48.7°F (Feb. 1977)
Portland, OR: 49.2°F; old record 48.8°F (Feb. 1991)
San Francisco, CA (downtown): 59.5°F; old record 58.9°F (Feb. 1986)
Las Vegas, NV: 60.0°F; old record 58.6°F (Feb. 1995)

Warmest February on record
Flagstaff, AZ: 39.7°F; old record 38.2°F (Feb. 1947)



Figures 2 and 3. The nation’s split climate of the last month is captured in these contrasting images taken near (left) Hollister, CA, on Feb. 24 and (right) Freeport, ME, on Feb. 19. Image credits: Jan Null (left), wunderphotographer capritaur (right).

How it felt on the ground
The most concentrated impacts were felt in Boston, where multiple storms left a record snow total for any month (64.8”, smashing the previous record of 43.3” from Jan. 2005) and a year-to-date total of 103.9” as of Sunday night, March 1. That’s less than 6 inches from the all-time seasonal snow record of 107.6” set in 1995-96. The scrappy residents of Boston coped with the snow as best they could, drawing on more than a few dashes of bleak humor, but this event was truly a disaster for countless people in the Boston area who lost days or weeks of pay because of transportation snarls. Though fewer in number, residents of Maine dealt with cold and snow that were arguably the worst in a lifetime for many who are accustomed to dealing with harsh winter weather.

If we pull back to examine the winter as a whole, it’s the western warmth that really stands out. More than 20 reporting stations saw their warmest winters on record, including San Francisco, Las Vegas, Seattle, Salt Lake City, and Portland, Oregon. December was very mild nationally (the 2nd warmest in 120 years of U.S. record keeping), which blunted the ability of the last few frigid weeks to set any coldest-winter records in the eastern U.S. Flowers are blooming on California hillsides weeks ahead of schedule. Pleasant as all this might seem to folks freezing in the East, the warmth and relative dryness have left much of the West vulnerable to major drought impacts in the coming summer.

The next post will be Wednesday at the latest.

Bob Henson

Winter Weather Heat Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. washingtonian115:




Cherry Blossoms are predicted to be at peak in 5-6 weeks. 17 more days until the First Day of Spring.
It should be noted that February 2015 has some analogs to January 1977. It should also be noted that
after the extreme chill and then even more extreme brutal cold of Sept 1976-January 1977, Spring (March-May) 1977 was one
of the warmest of record in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic states.

Quoting 501. Climate175:

Cherry Blossoms are predicted to be at peak in 5-6 weeks. 17 more days until the First Day of Spring.
Blossoms are predicting to peak a week later than normal.

What makes this year unique is that it is the only year we are aware of in which the Tidal Basin and Potomac have remained ice encrusted so late in the season. In those five years listed above, the Tidal Basin had thawed in each case.
Quoting 481. 62901IL:

Yeah!!!!! I love snow&sleet!!!


Hi! Winter Storm Hector looking pretty good! Winter Storm Joke is on the way for me! 1"-3" expected.
Quoting 500. ChillinInTheKeys:



Agreed... Flying up to ATL early tomorrow to spend a week in North Georgia. Don't expect to see many leaves on the trees except the old gold ones that hang on the beech trees through Winter.


I'm quite sure Georgia has plenty of evergreen pines like, Florida, I've been in northern Georgia in the winter before.
What is the current amo index, and also what are the probabilities of a modoki el nino? Also don't u think that the current sst setup in the equatorial Pacific refrence a modoki el nino. I personally think that cpc will call a modoki el nino now, or during the early summer.
Just updated. 
Could we be going for a one footer? It's possible!
East coast hit by Winter Storm
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R

Just imagine if the U.S. got hit by that many named Tropical Cyclones in one season?
That's why these named Winter Storms just become a blur to me.
Possible subtropical cyclone in the gulf of Mexico looks more symmetrical than earlier runs, more organized,and less frontal than earlier runs. Time will tell. It's possible, gulf water temps range from about 70-80 degrees,via gfs hours 204-210.
I turn around and my rails are encrusted with ice and so is my walk way.
512. vis0

Quoting 453. hydrus:

Yep..Some things change with time...some things dont change at all...I must say tho , the El Nino phenomenon has certainly thrown off many computer and Mets..I was reading an article about how the scientists were reacting to there failed forecasts , and it was truly fun to read the responses. One lady said that this is why she loved being a scientist , expecting the unexpected. The mysteries of how the planets atmosphere and oceans interact is as interesting as it is challenging. Not only is the Earth a miraculous place , it is mysterious and unpredictable.
Quoting Hydrus (...well till the words are not italicized and become ...mysterious) "The mysteries of how the planets atmosphere and oceans interact is as interesting as it is challenging. Not only is the Earth a miraculous place , it is mysterious" and though it has its many unpredictable facets as time goes on the planet teaches.

In being Beings of curiosity, humans can pick up these teaching thus make things less mysterious and more predictable.

That is, till everything in this universe has the highest possible level of knowledge. In where the least of all knowledge base things to the most intellectual being within this universe will poses all knowledge, be it for an infinitesimally small amount of "time".

That "time" will be during the smallest quietest crunch.

Smallest quietest crunch?

That's when the universe goes back to sleep ...or...




to quote SAR2401, something else happens.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Possible subtropical cyclone in the gulf of Mexico looks more symmetrical than earlier runs, more organized,and less frontal than earlier runs. Time will tell. It's possible, gulf water temps range from about 70-80 degrees,via gfs hours 204-210.


Just don't get near the coast. Water temps are in the low 60s and even mid to upper 50s in some locations along the northern GOM.

But water temps quickly move into the 70s out in the open waters offshore.
Except temps are still in the 60s in most of the N.E. GOM.

Link

Central GOM is around 80 degrees.
Quoting vongfong2014:

Hi! Winter Storm Hector looking pretty good! Winter Storm Joke is on the way for me! 1"-3" expected.

Vongfong!!!!!!!!!! Your back!!!!!
Quoting 505. Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure Georgia has plenty of evergreen pines like, Florida, I've been in northern Georgia in the winter before.


Hey Jed. You are correct, there's a stand of pines about 800' long on the ridge... Wasn't counting those as leaves.
516. vis0

Quoting 509. Sfloridacat5:

East coast hit by Winter Storm
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R

Just imagine if the U.S. got hit by that many named Tropical Cyclones in one season?
That's why these named Winter Storms just become a blur to me.

Quoting 515. ChillinInTheKeys:



Hey Jed. You are correct, there's a stand of pines about 800' long on the ridge... Wasn't counting those as leaves.


I guess compared to the Keys it might seem like every tree is deciduous, heck even Tallahassee seems like it has a lot of deciduous trees having grown up in the Tampa Bay area. Northerners would laugh at me, but it's all a relative perspective, lol.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
What is the current amo index, and also what are the probabilities of a modoki el nino? Also don't u think that the current sst setup in the equatorial Pacific refrence a modoki el nino. I personally think that cpc will call a modoki el nino now, or during the early summer.



still asking the same ? that you asked be for?
Quoting 509. Sfloridacat5:

East coast hit by Winter Storm
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R

Just imagine if the U.S. got hit by that many named Tropical Cyclones in one season?
That's why these named Winter Storms just become a blur to me.
only the Bold IMO has high impact, especially the K storm was literally max of 4 inches in New England, not a big storm.
naming a bunch of joke storms make the big ones seem like no idea, "Juno" was a huge storm about 5ft storm surges, 3 feet of snow, Hurricane force winds, those storms deserve a name as much as Tropical storm Bonnie did, but then there is Kari? It snowed for like 2 hours lightly.
Also add that big Nov snowstorm in Buffalo, don't remember the name somewhere at the start of the alphabet.
Quoting 471. txjac:



Actually I think that I'm going to look into retiring up north somewhere ...maybe Ohio? That is where I am originally from and I so miss the seasons. I could always come back to Texas for warm visits as necessary. I figure I'll find a neighbor kid or service to assist with the shoveling. I think I could handle being snowed in ...lot's of things to do to keep a person occupied.
You could always do the reverse snowbird thing.... you know, winter at home [in TX] and spend winter "vacationing" in snowier points north ....
Quoting 471. txjac:



Actually I think that I'm going to look into retiring up north somewhere ...maybe Ohio? That is where I am originally from and I so miss the seasons. I could always come back to Texas for warm visits as necessary. I figure I'll find a neighbor kid or service to assist with the shoveling. I think I could handle being snowed in ...lot's of things to do to keep a person occupied.


If humans were meant to live in the cold, we would have been born with fur coats and snow shoes. Give me the heat any day. Even my Viking-German blood didn't help. I may be the only living person who lived in Norway who never put on skis.
N ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WRT HOW MUCH QPF
WL FALL AS SOMETHING FROZEN. SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE COMING IN COOLER
AND WETTER. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...DO NOT WISH TO
UNDERSTIMATE POTENTIAL. FCST ACCUMS HV BEEN RAISED A BIT ACRS THE
NORTH...WHERE STDY SNOW SEEMS APPARENT. DID NOT DO LIKEWISE ACRS
THE S DUE TO THE PL POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...AT THE 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LVL...SEE ENUF EVIDENCE TO RAISE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

PCPN WL CONT INTO THU AFTN. COLD AIR CONTS TO STREAM SWD THU NGT
AFTR PCPN ENDS. STUCK CLOSE TO A PRVS FCST/MOS CONSENSUS FOR
MIN-T THU NGT. HV PLENTY OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

I hate when they type like this...
Quoting 502. georgevandenberghe:

It should be noted that February 2015 has some analogs to January 1977. It should also be noted that
after the extreme chill and then even more extreme brutal cold of Sept 1976-January 1977, Spring (March-May) 1977 was one
of the warmest of record in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic states.



1977 was also the year of the famous NYC heatwave and blackout.
Quoting 514. 62901IL:


Vongfong!!!!!!!!!! Your back!!!!!

Yeah! Has Hector started yet?
Hey guys! Since severe wx season is coming up, I decided to name severe weather outbreaks. Tell me your thoughts.
Names:
Alvar
Beast
Ceres
Dan
Ella
Fabron
Ganon
Hectan
Impa
Jarret
Kameria

I will reveal the rest if needed. Trust me, I WILL NOT pull a TWC.
(P.s. 62901IL picked the F-I names)
Quoting 506. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What is the current amo index, and also what are the probabilities of a modoki el nino? Also don't u think that the current sst setup in the equatorial Pacific refrence a modoki el nino. I personally think that cpc will call a modoki el nino now, or during the early summer.
AMO is not something you check day by day, AMO looks negative.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



!!! Modi Commits to Clean Environment by Doubling India's Coal Tax

*** Two Minutes to Midnight for the World's Tiniest Cetacean: Mexico's Vaquita

London's 'Sophie' Stegosaurus gives up body weight Probably best not to have asked this lady her weight while she was still alive ;)

* New Higgs detection 'closes circle'



*** Newly discovered hormone mimics the effects of exercise

Nice to sniff you: Handshakes may engage our sense of smell


!!! Black phosphorus is new 'wonder material' for improving optical communication




BPA exposure linked to autism spectrum disorder, study reports

*** Air pollution linked to slower cognitive development in children


* A new level of earthquake understanding: Surprise findings from San Andreas Fault rock sample

Family log of spring's arrival helps predict climate-driven change

*** Munching bugs thwart eager trees, reducing the carbon sink


!!! Enhancing high-temperature tolerance in plants: Effective on rice and tomatoes

*** Yields of key cassava crop not keeping pace with Africa population growth


Tale of two droughts: What California, Syria can teach about adaptation gap


US oil keeps booming despite low prices for now

Mussels, clams hit by ocean acidification: how effects could be forestalled

Zero-G Cocktail Glass Lets Astronauts Drink With Dignity



************************************************* ************************************************** ***************

The following article is courtesy of JohnLonergan:

Brief Communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability
Quoting SeriouslySushi:

1977 was also the year of the famous NYC heatwave and blackout.


1977 saw the highest temperature in New York City - 107 at LaGuardia airport. It was 'only' 104 at Central Park in 1977.
Quoting 528. Gearsts:

AMO is not something you check day by day, AMO looks negative.


Doesn't stop the weather nerds from checking daily. ;)
I would like to humbly ask for some help from one of you serious students of our atmosphere, relating to the term "astounding" used in the author's keypost, above. As I stated in my comment #30, upthread, I was interested in this year's zip January rainfall in Sacramento. I lived there for about a decade, starting in 1962, and I simply cannot conceive of just how unlikely, or alien it is, for there to occur a rainless January in the Central Valley. It just violently conflicts with my school days memories. And as I commented, I tabulated the Sacramento 1963 thru 1972 rain events last night, and noted my figure of 8.7 average rain days per month, across that 310 days, from your archive here.

So, if we stretch simplemindedness to the extreme, and just assume such days to be independent chances, the fraction 8.7 / 31 = 0.281 results for rain events, and 0.719 for the chance any given day is dry. You raise that to the thirty-first power for a crude idea of randomly obtaining a month long string, and that chance works out to be once per twenty-seven thousand years. While this result ratifies a combination of my intuition and memory, I know this crude arithmetic is very far from sound. But further, from December 20th’s trace rain, all through to the end of February, there were but four rain days this winter, across the very heart of California’s rainy season. The four exceptions fell in one consecutive event from the sixth thru tenth of February. That’s it. So, cherry picking, from the solstice thru Feb. fifth (using my January figure as a proxy), the odds against such an unbroken string occurring randomly, build to one in 7 & 1/3 million. Astounding, indeed.

I guess what I am fishing for, is how do actual meteorologists and climate folks think about assessing such probabilities, with appropriate methods? Any help with that?
Quoting 508. washingtonian115:

Could we be going for a one footer? It's possible!



This will likely be our biggest snowfall of the winter. The source of moisture is very deep spanning from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, reminiscent of a Pineapple express.
Quoting 533. Drakoen:



This will likely be our biggest snowfall of the winter. The source of moisture is very deep spanning from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, reminiscent of a Pineapple express.
NWS is indicating models re coming in wetter and slower with the front.I would not be surprised someone sees a foot in the immediate D.C area.
I would like a study to understand why the Boston and D.C area saw so much snow and ice in a span of 3 weeks and why areas in between really didn't get that much.i heard people in Philly are still looking for a great snow.
Quoting vongfong2014:
Hey guys! Since severe wx season is coming up, I decided to name severe weather outbreaks. Tell me your thoughts.
Names:
Alvar
Beast
Ceres
Dan
Ella
Fabron
Ganon
Hectan
Impa
Jarret
Kameria

I will reveal the rest if needed. Trust me, I WILL NOT pull a TWC.
(P.s. 62901IL picked the F-I names)
I don't think you really want to know what I think of this...
Quoting 527. vongfong2014:

Hey guys! Since severe wx season is coming up, I decided to name severe weather outbreaks. Tell me your thoughts.
Names:
Alvar
Beast
Ceres
Dan
Ella
Fabron
Ganon
Hectan
Impa
Jarret
Kameria

I will reveal the rest if needed. Trust me, I WILL NOT pull a TWC.
(P.s. 62901IL picked the F-I names)




No... just no.
Quoting vis0:
Encrusted...crustaceans...i can smell a fresh Lobster picture!!! wait let me get my microphone (fork) & mouse ("lobster opener" aka nut cracker on steroids) SAR2401 hold back yer jokes mod squad is watching NO Grothar Not Mr. Link, Mr. Pete & Ms. Julie. Lots of sleet pellets falling for 49 mins. here on Rose Hill, south of Kips Bay & Murry Hill...that's in Manhattan,NY
Vis, I told you about how too much caffeine would affect your posts...or maybe it was too many hot dogs. I know it was food related. Looks like whatever sleet you've had will be that last until maybe Wednesday night, depending how fast the changeover from rain to snow occurs. Then it looks like more snow. You might get 4" to 6" in Central Park, which is quite a snowstorm for the first week of March. It's going to get to 32 here after a high of 79 the day before. Not as bad as the 9 degrees you're facing Thursday night, but we Southerners just can't take these kinds of temperature swings...and it's been going on all winter. ;-)
Quoting 512. vis0:


Quoting Hydrus (...well till the words are not italicized and become ...mysterious) "The mysteries of how the planets atmosphere and oceans interact is as interesting as it is challenging. Not only is the Earth a miraculous place , it is mysterious" and though it has its many unpredictable facets as time goes on the planet teaches.

In being Beings of curiosity, humans can pick up these teaching thus make things less mysterious and more predictable.

That is, till everything in this universe has the highest possible level of knowledge. In where the least of all knowledge base things to the most intellectual being within this universe will poses all knowledge, be it for an infinitesimally small amount of "time".

That "time" will be during the smallest quietest crunch.

Smallest quietest crunch?

That's when the universe goes back to sleep ...or...




to quote SAR2401, something else happens.

I think everytime we get close to figuring out whats really happening out there, God just shakes the cosmic etch a sketch and were back to square one...If he wanted us to know whats going on , He would have left a diagram..:)
Quoting 536. sar2401:

I don't think you really want to know what I think of this...
Quoting 537. TimTheWxMan:





No... just no.

Jeez! Tough crowd. Hey, a severe weather outbreak can be just as bad as a hurricane or worse. It can help keep track of it.
Another shift south of the 00z NAM with the snow axis. Slowly but surely catching up to the reliable global models.
Quoting vongfong2014:
Hey guys! Since severe wx season is coming up, I decided to name severe weather outbreaks. Tell me your thoughts.
Names:
Alvar
Beast
Ceres
Dan
Ella
Fabron
Ganon
Hectan
Impa
Jarret
Kameria



you clowns need too stop with the naming stuff all ready nameing severe weather out breaks what a joke too me thats takeing it a little to far sorry but no
Quoting 542. Tazmanian:
Quoting vongfong2014:
Hey guys! Since severe wx season is coming up, I decided to name severe weather outbreaks. Tell me your thoughts.
Names:
Alvar
Beast
Ceres
Dan
Ella
Fabron
Ganon
Hectan
Impa
Jarret
Kameria



you clowns need too stop with the naming stuff all ready nameing severe weather out breaks what a joke too me thats takeing it a little to far sorry but no


LOL! Good evening Taz.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Good evening Taz.



good evening scott
Quoting 541. Drakoen:

Another shift south of the 00z NAM with the snow axis. Slowly but surely catching up to the reliable global models.
It has been underestimating how far south the cold front will go.
I always like the first day of the year that feels tropical.
That day was today.
82 and a little humidity, but a light breeze and NO BUGS.

Ate my personal pan outside today for dinner. Maybe I'll get a few more of those in before the bugs return.
Quoting 541. Drakoen:

Another shift south of the 00z NAM with the snow axis. Slowly but surely catching up to the reliable global models.
No bueno...make it go back
Quoting 542. Tazmanian:

Quoting vongfong2014:
Hey guys! Since severe wx season is coming up, I decided to name severe weather outbreaks. Tell me your thoughts.
Names:
Alvar
Beast
Ceres
Dan
Ella
Fabron
Ganon
Hectan
Impa
Jarret
Kameria



you clowns need too stop with the naming stuff all ready nameing severe weather out breaks what a joke too me thats takeing it a little to far sorry but no

I've tried to be nice and say it's my local list and say stuff not to confuse but I'm sick of some of you saying " Quit naming storms!" Now please don't take anything personally.
Quoting 540. vongfong2014:


Jeez! Tough crowd. Hey, a severe weather outbreak can be just as bad as a hurricane or worse. It can help keep track of it.



Leave the storm naming to hurricane/typhoons/cyclones. Winter storm naming's stupid as hell and so is naming severe weather systems. Just saying.
Quoting DavidPeters:
I would like to humbly ask for some help from one of you serious students of our atmosphere, relating to the term "astounding" used in the author's keypost, above. As I stated in my comment #30, upthread, I was interested in this year's zip January rainfall in Sacramento. I lived there for about a decade, starting in 1962, and I simply cannot conceive of just how unlikely, or alien it is, for there to occur a rainless January in the Central Valley. It just violently conflicts with my school days memories. And as I commented, I tabulated the Sacramento 1963 thru 1972 rain events last night, and noted my figure of 8.7 average rain days per month, across that 310 days, from your archive here.

So, if we stretch simplemindedness to the extreme, and just assume such days to be independent chances, the fraction 8.7 / 31 = 0.281 results for rain events, and 0.719 for the chance any given day is dry. You raise that to the thirty-first power for a crude idea of randomly obtaining a month long string, and that chance works out to be once per twenty-seven thousand years. While this result ratifies a combination of my intuition and memory, I know this crude arithmetic is very far from sound. But further, from December 20th’s trace rain, all through to the end of February, there were but four rain days this winter, across the very heart of California’s rainy season. The four exceptions fell in one consecutive event from the sixth thru tenth of February. That’s it. So, cherry picking, from the solstice thru Feb. fifth (using my January figure as a proxy), the odds against such an unbroken string occurring randomly, build to one in 7 & 1/3 million. Astounding, indeed.

I guess what I am fishing for, is how do actual meteorologists and climate folks think about assessing such probabilities, with appropriate methods? Any help with that?
What you're asking for is way above my pay grade. ScottLincoln is our stat guy when it comes to return periods so maybe he'll step in and give you the right answer. Just off the top of my head, once in twenty-seven thousand years doesn't sound right, but it's certainly unprecedented in weather records going back a century and a half. I lived in the North Bay for almost 30 years, and having no rain for a winter month anywhere in that area would seem unbelievable, Another way to look at this would be to see what other cities in the area got from January. Fresno totaled 0.21" while Stockton got 0.02". Both are pathetic figures compared to averages of 2 inches or so, but the fact that both cities, which are usually really dry in dry years, got some rain would suggest that the Sacramento Airport is either unlucky or the rain gauge siting needs to be looked at.
Quoting 549. TimTheWxMan:




Leave the storm naming to hurricane/typhoons/cyclones. Winter storm naming's stupid as hell and so is naming severe weather systems. Just saying.


Agreed.

Naming severe weather systems are even worse. No one (as in the vast majority of people) cares where the upper low/energy is that's driving the severe storms. They want to know where the individual cells are. A name does not help to track a severe weather system.
Quoting 550. Astrometeor:



Seriously...we are not a bunch of white girls who are experts in reading abbreviations...just type it out guys, they're long enough anyways.



And like OMGLOLYOLOBAE. XD
Does TWC even have a criteria for naming winter storms?
Quoting 547. hydrus:

No bueno...make it go back

Link
Quoting 552. Astrometeor:



Agreed.

Naming severe weather systems are even worse. No one (as in the vast majority of people) cares where the upper low/energy is that's driving the severe storms. They want to know where the individual cells are. A name does not help to track a severe weather system.

Not singling you out but I'm just doing it for fun... and info. I should've known you guys wouldn't accept this idea. I'm still doing it for fun though. P.S. For my friends it will help.
Quoting vongfong2014:

I've tried to be nice and say it's my local list and say stuff not to confuse but I'm sick of some of you saying " Quit naming storms!" Now please don't take anything personally.
Look, if you decide to do what TWC and especially the NWS isn't doing, you can expect to get some push back from other weather geeks. There's a also some pretty significant logistical issues with naming severe storms. First problem is defining "severe". What's your criteria? Second problem is severe storms are not some discrete entity like tropical cyclones. What's your plan if Alabama has an outbreak of tornadoes and North Dakota has straight line wind damage but both from different lows? You going to have two severe storm names concurrently? That confuses things more when you're naming severe storms. One of the characteristics of youth is to come up with an idea while believing no one ever thought of that before. Sometimes that's correct, but naming of severe storms has been thought of and rejected previously for reasons which will become obvious if you think this through. Still, you have every right to assign names to any kind of storm you wish. Don't expect everyone to jump for joy over the idea, but you also shouldn't let comments here make your decisions.
Quoting 556. washingtonian115:




They're calling for 3-5" in Middle TN. I refuse to believe the NAM.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Does TWC even have a criteria for naming winter storms?
Yes. They look at the overnight Neilsens. If the numbers aren't high enough, it's time to name a winter storm. :-)
Quoting 557. vongfong2014:


Not singling you out but I'm just doing it for fun... and info. I should've known you guys wouldn't accept this idea. I'm still doing it for fun though. P.S. For my friends it will help.


How will it help? You're labeling a macroscale storm that spawns mesoscale systems.

Just don't do it on here, please. You can have your own blog and send that to your friends. I don't like the 5 lists of winter storm names flying around, waste of blog space and not useful to anyone.
Quoting 470. weathermanwannabe:

Some were discussing "island" living yesterday; you also have to get used (assuming the Caribbean or parts of South Florida including the Keys) to no change of seasons. It's a tough call for me now having lived in both and now in North Florida with a "mild" change of seasons the last 14 years. Embrace the "nautical" lifestyle with year round mild temps, and pretty hot in the summer, in terms of coastal or Island life or enjoy the change of seasons with gorgeous change of leaves and so forth every year in spite of often bitter winters. If I had to make a choice in retirement, I would probably go with the ocean side life and fly to the see the changing of the leaves in the Carolinas every year....


Hope you like pine trees!
Quoting 532. DavidPeters:

I would like to humbly ask for some help from one of you serious students of our atmosphere, relating to the term "astounding" used in the author's keypost, above. As I stated in my comment #30, upthread, I was interested in this year's zip January rainfall in Sacramento. I lived there for about a decade, starting in 1962, and I simply cannot conceive of just how unlikely, or alien it is, for there to occur a rainless January in the Central Valley. It just violently conflicts with my school days memories. And as I commented, I tabulated the Sacramento 1963 thru 1972 rain events last night, and noted my figure of 8.7 average rain days per month, across that 310 days, from your archive here.

So, if we stretch simplemindedness to the extreme, and just assume such days to be independent chances, the fraction 8.7 / 31 = 0.281 results for rain events, and 0.719 for the chance any given day is dry. You raise that to the thirty-first power for a crude idea of randomly obtaining a month long string, and that chance works out to be once per twenty-seven thousand years. While this result ratifies a combination of my intuition and memory, I know this crude arithmetic is very far from sound. But further, from December 20th%u2019s trace rain, all through to the end of February, there were but four rain days this winter, across the very heart of California%u2019s rainy season. The four exceptions fell in one consecutive event from the sixth thru tenth of February. That%u2019s it. So, cherry picking, from the solstice thru Feb. fifth (using my January figure as a proxy), the odds against such an unbroken string occurring randomly, build to one in 7 & 1/3 million. Astounding, indeed.

I guess what I am fishing for, is how do actual meteorologists and climate folks think about assessing such probabilities, with appropriate methods? Any help with that?


David:

I think the better way to approach this problem would be to count how many January months with 0.0" of rainfall occur in the climate record for Sacramento, then divide that by the total number years. That would get you a very rough approximation. A better estimate would come from fitting the data to an extreme value distribution but then it starts getting more complicated.

Just a quick glance at the data shows a 70ish year period of record, and only 1 year (2015) having only a trace (or less) of rainfall. I work more with extreme values on the upper end of the spectrum, so I'm not 100% sure of the best way to determine the annual percent chance of this type of occurrence. So it seems kinda rare... that's the best I got.

Quoting 558. sar2401:

Look, if you decide to do what TWC and especially the NWS isn't doing, you can expect to get some push back from other weather geeks. There's a also some pretty significant logistical issues with naming severe storms. First problem is defining "severe". What's your criteria? Second problem is severe storms are not some discrete entity like tropical cyclones. What's your plan if Alabama has an outbreak of tornadoes and North Dakota has straight line wind damage but both from different lows? You going to have two severe storm names concurrently? That confuses things more when you're naming severe storms. One of the characteristics of youth is to come up with an idea while believing no one ever thought of that before. Sometimes that's correct, but naming of severe storms has been thought of and rejected previously for reasons which will become obvious if you think this through. Still, you have every right to assign names to any kind of storm you wish. Don't expect everyone to jump for joy over the idea, but you also shouldn't let comments here make your decisions.

Thanks for this. If it's the same system in a connected way then single name.
Also, it has to be a big system to qualify. I got what you meant though.
Quoting 426. Gearsts:




Well, 2013... 2014... 2015...

Weak, weak, weak....

Until when?
Quoting Astrometeor:


Seriously...we are not a bunch of white girls who are experts in reading abbreviations...just type it out guys, they're long enough anyways.
I just don't understand why the head honchos in the NWS can't get these products done in proper case and not using abbreviations like "ltr" and "ngt". Surely the guys doing this have to translate English into teletype speak in their heads when they write the AFD since I presume none of them would even write a memo like that. It's a public discussion, which means it should use terms the public understands, or at least can look up on Google. Some offices do it like it's coming from the 21st century while other still think it's 1955. Someone at the top should be making some rules about this.
Quoting vongfong2014:

Thanks for this. If it's the same system in a connected way then single name.
Also, it has to be a big system to qualify. I got what you meant though.
I'm not trying to tell you what to do, just point out some things you might not have considered. One thing is that you wouldn't even be able to name a severe storm system until it happens, since naming something which hasn't hit yet has its own hazards. By the time you gave it a name, it would be over. I could argue that big winter storms like the one we'll have tomorrow night and Thursday have enough lead time to get a name, even if we don't know exactly how bad it will be and where it will hit. It's rare that we even have 24 hours lead time on many of the systems that have caused tornadoes down here. Severe storms also don't originate out in the Atlantic where there are thousand of miles with no instrumented observations. A name for that makes sense in terms of tracking the storm. Except for tracking damage reports, there's not much tracking to do with severe storms. Then you have the issue of what to do with an isolated outbreak of severe weather. When is it enough to give it a name? Does it have to have tornadoes? How much area does it have to affect? If there's a line of severe thunderstorms that causes some low end straight line wind damage but covers a lot of area, does that qualify? If not, what else does it need to have? I just fail to see the utility of having a name for a storm that generally lasts for a day or less and we won't know enough about it to name it until it's over.
Quoting 565. CaribBoy:



Well, 2013... 2014... 2015...

Weak, weak, weak....

Until when?
Next season
Quoting 567. sar2401:

I'm not trying to tell you what to do, just point out some things you might not have considered. One thing is that you wouldn't even be able to name a severe storm system until it happens, since naming something which hasn't hit yet has its own hazards. By the time you gave it a name, it would be over. I could argue that big winter storms like the one we'll have tomorrow night and Thursday have enough lead time to get a name, even if we don't know exactly how bad it will be and where it will hit. It's rare that we even have 24 hours lead time on many of the systems that have caused tornadoes down here. Severe storms also don't originate out in the Atlantic where there are thousand of miles with no instrumented observations. A name for that makes sense in terms of tracking the storm. Except for tracking damage reports, there's not much tracking to do with severe storms. Then you have the issue of what to do with an isolated outbreak of severe weather. When is it enough to give it a name? Does it have to have tornadoes? How much area does it have to affect? If there's a line of severe thunderstorms that causes some low end straight line wind damage but covers a lot of area, does that qualify? If not, what else does it need to have? I just fail to see the utility of having a name for a storm that generally lasts for a day or less and we won't know enough about it to name it until it's over.

'Kay. This makes sense. All I got out of saying this was making less friends than I already had after my LOCAL names disaster.
I bet everyone on the East coast is glad March is here.

What is the countdown to Hurricane season 2015 now?

There is still hope up here in Alaska for some real snow... Although if the temps keep trending warmer than wunderground forecasts them for each day, it is worrisome. Iditarod moved yet again, since the normally frozen river they use, is well, not frozen....
RGEM 00z:

75 tomorrow to snow Thursday night...

Quoting 546. JrWeathermanFL:

I always like the first day of the year that feels tropical.
That day was today.
82 and a little humidity, but a light breeze and NO BUGS.

Ate my personal pan outside today for dinner. Maybe I'll get a few more of those in before the bugs return.

Eating personal pans isn't going to help with the weight you're trying to lose. ;)
Quoting vongfong2014:

'Kay. This makes sense. All I got out of saying this was making less friends than I already had after my LOCAL names disaster.
I don't know that it's a matter of making less friends. I don't hate you now any more than I did before you had the name list. :-) But seriously, if you put out something and ask for thoughts you get...well...thoughts. You can go ahead with your naming as you please but, for it to be helpful even to your friends, it does need some thought and criteria. At least you write like a functionally literate person, so don't let those who don't bother you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Eating personal pans isn't going to help with the weight you're trying to lose. ;)
They don't have a "lite" version of those? Darn!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
75 tomorrow to snow Thursday night...

High here today was 84, and we should get to at least 80 tomorrow. Luckily, the freezing line isn't getting this far south while there's still moisture to be had but Thursday morning still looks a low of about 30. Those 50 degree swings in temperature, not to mention the 0.60 inches of barometric pressure loops is driving my arthritis nuts. Just wait until you're my age and climate change is in full swing. Just pray you don't get early onset arthritis.

Quoting 573. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Eating personal pans isn't going to help with the weight you're trying to lose. ;)
Actually, he can probably still lose weight as long as his caloric surplus isn't particularly high. You lose weight by burning more calories than you consume. This process can be amplified significantly by working out and eating right, but on a basic level, that's all there is to it.
Quoting Drakoen:
RGEM 00z:



Anafront?
Quoting 573. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Eating personal pans isn't going to help with the weight you're trying to lose. ;)


I was going to crack a joke about your weight, but I'm not much better than you.

Quoting 579. Astrometeor:



I was going to crack a joke about your weight, but I'm not much better than you.
****ing twigs. I'm like 180.
Quoting Dakster:
I bet everyone on the East coast is glad March is here.

What is the countdown to Hurricane season 2015 now?

There is still hope up here in Alaska for some real snow... Although if the temps keep trending warmer than wunderground forecasts them for each day, it is worrisome. Iditarod moved yet again, since the normally frozen river they use, is well, not frozen....
Don't be stirring the pot, Dak. I thought I heard it was turning colder there and you were supposed to get snow. I just got done reading Admiral Byrd's biography and he described the problems he had during his May, 1927 flight to the North Pole. It seems that some of the sextant readings were wrong as well as encountering more open water near the Pole than he expected, which confused him and his crew further. I wonder how many times in the pre-iditarod days that there's been this lack of snow? It's nice and warm here. Actually, uncomfortably warm and humid. But then it gets cold again. But them it gets warm again until we get cold again. This winter has really sucked bilge water. :-)
Quoting 580. KoritheMan:


****ing twigs. I'm like 180.



So Kori, if ya don't have a good metabolism like us, this is what you do:

Quoting 577. KoritheMan:


Actually, he can probably still lose weight as long as his caloric surplus isn't particularly high. You lose weight by burning more calories than you consume. This process can be amplified significantly by working out and eating right, but on a basic level, that's all there is to it.



Just in case you weren't sure. ;)

On topic:

Snow totals:

Quoting 578. BaltimoreBrian:



Anafront?


Gold star for you

Quoting 583. Astrometeor:



So Kori, if ya don't have a good metabolism like us, this is what you do:



Just in case you weren't sure. ;)

On topic:

Snow totals:


Bro, do you even lift? I work out like four times a week, sometimes more on my good weeks.

Seriously though, I used to be WAY heavier than I am now. I hovered around 220 for awhile as a teenager, and I didn't really start thinning until 2012. My brother was a twig for the longest time, now he outweighs me by about 20 pounds.
The northern Sierra snowpack is 16% of average for the date, while the central and southern Sierra are 20% and 22% respectively

Link
Quoting 582. BaltimoreBrian:




Brian, we haven't had a winter to begin with, you can't stop something that hasn't happened. Now, if the foot totals were over Buffalo or Boston, then sure...
Quoting 576. sar2401:
High here today was 84, and we should get to at least 80 tomorrow. Luckily, the freezing line isn't getting this far south while there's still moisture to be had but Thursday morning still looks a low of about 30. Those 50 degree swings in temperature, not to mention the 0.60 inches of barometric pressure loops is driving my arthritis nuts. Just wait until you're my age and climate change is in full swing. Just pray you don't get early onset arthritis.


You know your old when your arthritis flares up..
Quoting 572. TropicalAnalystwx13:
75 tomorrow to snow Thursday night...



Better you than me. Come to Orlando and you may see 90 the next 2 days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
326 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO TOMORROW WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG IN FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG COVERAGE SEEM
LESS LIKELY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH
IN CASE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED. CLOUD BANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC GENERATING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. MAY SEE SOME
CONTINUED SPRINKLES MOVE ONSHORE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN
THE EVENING.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING WILL MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFT. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 80S...WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR. ORLANDO IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF
88 DEGREES TOMORROW (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).


THU...WARM DAY AGAIN. TEMPS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER AT
TEH COAST.
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS SO JUST ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BUT NO MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THU NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO RETREAT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MENTIONABLE POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN NORTH OF EC FL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS AGAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
177 myself
Quoting 581. sar2401:

Don't be stirring the pot, Dak. I thought I heard it was turning colder there and you were supposed to get snow. I just got done reading Admiral Byrd's biography and he described the problems he had during his May, 1927 flight to the North Pole. It seems that some of the sextant readings were wrong as well as encountering more open water near the Pole than he expected, which confused him and his crew further. I wonder how many times in the pre-iditarod days that there's been this lack of snow? It's nice and warm here. Actually, uncomfortably warm and humid. But then it gets cold again. But them it gets warm again until we get cold again. This winter has really sucked bilge water. :-)


If we define cold as below freezing, then yes, it is supposed to get cold... It should still be colder though. I am not complaining as it is not HOT here yet either. I did here that it is possible, even in Anchorage, in the summer to hit 90's... Last summer was NOT like that at all and I was sorta hoping that was considered a warm summer as the temps at times hit the mid-70s.

It was supposed to snow today, we got rain. It was in the +40Fs. It is supposed to get cold next week and highs below freezing. Not supposed to get below zero though. Fairbanks forecasted lows slightly below zero. Could be good for the iditarod.
Quoting 593. BaltimoreBrian:




Put down the vodka bottle
is Vongfon2014 the same person as Hurricanes2018. The post quality (or lack thereof) would seem to indicate so
Quoting 593. BaltimoreBrian:



Nice Juicy J!
Quoting 594. Drakoen:


Put down the vodka bottle


What about the Yager?
Drak, I've had no alcohol tonight, and when I have, it's never vodka ;)
Sept. 12, 2013 @ 6am Space Shuttle Atlantis

Quoting 572. TropicalAnalystwx13:

75 tomorrow to snow Thursday night...


Yep what a heck of a cold front this will be. For me high of 72 tomorrow and high of 37 the next day... Ridiculous

We just gotta get BB to use the FONT TOOL instead of the draw tool in MSPAINT....
Quoting 599. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sept. 12, 2013 @ 6am Space Shuttle Atlantis



Nice shot with the thunderheads in the background.
Models did shift the heavy precip snow axis south. The core of the precipitation it will run through NOVA and much of MD (especially central MD northeast to Balt) and central to southern NJ.
Quoting 595. nwobilderburg:

is Vongfon2014 the same person as Hurricanes2018. The post quality (or lack thereof) would seem to indicate so
You mean Jason? He has tons of accounts on here, just ask Taz. He is our resident blogger who doesn't really bother anyone. Hence, why he is coolman. Kind of miss the days when guys like JFV and Stormtop were on here and then you had some guys who really knew what they were talking about like Weather456 and Atmoaggie, not saying we don't have knowledgeable bloggers like Jedkins01, TA, Drak, Levi, Kori, and many others not mentioned . I was just a lurker then, but those were the hay days of Wunderblog. Now we have the new generation of bloggers.
Trust me though if a hurricane is threatening the mainland US this year, guarantee you will see some of those heads pop up, and comments like this will be on the next page. The blog will go into hyperdrive and there will be some really sound and reasonable discussions along with a lot of ignores and bans.
The early stages of undercutting

Wow Dakster sure is an art critic tonight! Must be his gout bothering him ;)

608. jpsb
Villarrica, Chile



Fire and Ice on the mountain.
1.6" of snow at Boston Logan, and 3.2" at Worcester airport as of midnight.
610. jpsb
Quoting 609. BaltimoreBrian:

1.6" of snow at Boston Logan, and 3.2" at Worcester airport as of midnight.


Isn't Boston close to setting a snowfall record?
Boston has had 105.7" as of midnight, and their seasonal record is 107.6"

Worcester has had 115.6" as of midnight and their seasonal record is 132.9" Worcester made 3rd place yesterday.
612. jpsb
Quoting 611. BaltimoreBrian:

Boston has had 105.7" as of midnight, and their seasonal record is 107.6"

Worcester has had 115.6" as of midnight and their seasonal record is 132.9" Worcester made 3rd place yesterday.


I think Boston is going to break their record, Worcester? Who knows. The way this winter is going we might just get a couple more big winter storms.
Quoting 599. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sept. 12, 2013 @ 6am Space Shuttle Atlantis





Can't wait until NASA's next generation of craft are ready, my hopes is that space will reinvent the days of exploration and colonization, bring back the wonder, curiosity, and mystery that stimulates people's interest in science. I feel if we can just get one human mission to make history on another planet it will change people's perspectives on science again for the good.

If you look at today compared to the scientific revolution and when there were missions to the moon, people didn't believe scientists weren't collective con artists teaming up with the government to deceive us through vaccines, GMO's and Global Warming. But then again, social medial didn't exist yet either. And while social media has benefits(we're using it here after lol), I feel it's led to more collective fear and paranoia than anything.

With that said though, it can't all be blamed on social media, after all, if people fall pray to feeding themselves with such nonsense, often it seems to be due to people's lack of filtering what they read on the internet, that is whether to discern something as garbage or valuable knowledge.
And there are many complex reasons why it seems that the number of people who show hesitation or fear to trust science seems to be increasing, but whatever the case, I hope it changes.
With that being said, as earlier mentioned I think triggering that wonder and curiosity involved in exploration in space will shift people's fear away from the garbage and help people realize we live in a pretty awesome time period where all our lives have been changed due to scientific advances.

After all, I think for most of us, the interest in science began as having a stronger curiosity in wanting to ask questions about how the world works and and exploring the unknown.


Quoting 572. TropicalAnalystwx13:

75 tomorrow to snow Thursday night...




I guess I can't complain about my forecast on Friday of highs in the upper 50's and lows in the upper 40's.

Come to think of it, I'm actually heading back to my parent's house in Tampa Bay for spring break, and I'll be enjoying mild 70's behind the cold front down there.

It got to 84 here today, and with the breeze flowing it was amazing, I'm officially done with the cold after today's nice weather.
Boston has had 105.7" as of midnight, and their seasonal record is 107.6


in oder for boston too get a new record it needs 108" if it gets to 107.6 that will tide a record not break it it needs 108" in oder too break the record
Quoting Dakster:


If we define cold as below freezing, then yes, it is supposed to get cold... It should still be colder though. I am not complaining as it is not HOT here yet either. I did here that it is possible, even in Anchorage, in the summer to hit 90's... Last summer was NOT like that at all and I was sorta hoping that was considered a warm summer as the temps at times hit the mid-70s.

It was supposed to snow today, we got rain. It was in the +40Fs. It is supposed to get cold next week and highs below freezing. Not supposed to get below zero though. Fairbanks forecasted lows slightly below zero. Could be good for the iditarod.
Anchorage has never made it to 90. The highest recorded was either 85 or 86, depending on what location was used for the official NWS office. It has moved several times, and the 86 was at a downtown location and the 85 was at the airport, so take your pick. Fairbanks is the one that regularly gets to 90. It almost made it to 100 in 1919 but missed it by that much, so the official high was 99. Same problem with weather station moving about since 1919. I think the "official" record is 94 at the airport, but the 1919 record came from the city location and isn't accepted as the "official" record. No official station in Alaska has ever reached 100. It's been over 100 in Yukon Territory on several occasions though. I happened to be there for one of them when I was mere lad of 15. If you think it gets hot in Florida, you should be in the Yukon for a heat wave. Every single thing that flies, bites, and every single thing that flies is the size of a B-17. :-)
phase two commence


Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Wow Dakster sure is an art critic tonight! Must be his gout bothering him ;)

I kind of like your freehand version better. :-) The nice thing about those 384 hour models is that everyone east of the Mississippi gets rain, and lots of it. Considering I got 3.68" of rain in the 28 days of February, it's kind of hard to see where between six and seven inches is coming from in the next 16 days, but I can always dream.
619. vis0
teacher! teacher! Quad R is sticking tongue out at me!

Quoting Jedkins01:



Can't wait until NASA's next generation of craft are ready, my hopes is that space will reinvent the days of exploration and colonization, bring back the wonder, curiosity, and mystery that stimulates people's interest in science. I feel if we can just get one human mission to make history on another planet it will change people's perspectives on science again for the good.

If you look at today compared to the scientific revolution and when there were missions to the moon, people didn't believe scientists weren't collective con artists teaming up with the government to deceive us through vaccines, GMO's and Global Warming. But then again, social medial didn't exist yet either. And while social media has benefits(we're using it here after lol), I feel it's led to more collective fear and paranoia than anything.

With that said though, it can't all be blamed on social media, after all, if people fall pray to feeding themselves with such nonsense, often it seems to be due to people's lack of filtering what they read on the internet, that is whether to discern something as garbage or valuable knowledge.
And there are many complex reasons why it seems that the number of people who show hesitation or fear to trust science seems to be increasing, but whatever the case, I hope it changes.
With that being said, as earlier mentioned I think triggering that wonder and curiosity involved in exploration in space will shift people's fear away from the garbage and help people realize we live in a pretty awesome time period where all our lives have been changed due to scientific advances.

After all, I think for most of us, the interest in science began as having a stronger curiosity in wanting to ask questions about how the world works and and exploring the unknown.


Speaking as one who's first vision of flying to space was V-2 rockets, I can tell you for sure our collective opinion of scientists has changed. The term "rocket scientist" was one of awe for how smart they all were. I can clearly remember JFK's speech in 1961 committing the US to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. My opinion then was that he was nuts, we'd never meet that goal. I'm still amazed that we really did it, and that I could sit in my living room and watch that first foot touch lunar soil and holding my breath that Armstrong wouldn't sink up to his neck. That's how little we knew about the Moon then. We did have a collective vision as a society about space travel and the benefits it would bring. It's no accident that the original Star Trek started in 1966 and got cancelled in 1969. After we put a man on the moon, we started to lose that collective vision. The War in Vietnam, assassinations, riots in the streets, hippies taking over our campuses - all of these absorbed our collective vision. To their detriment, scientists back then overpromised and underdelivered. Now that we put a man on the moon, having men on Mars was a cinch. Space travel was going to bring us all these wonderful benefits like Tang, and soon we'd find a way to harness the sun's energy to give us unlimited power. Shoot, Pan Am was taking reservations for Moon flights. Except for Tang, none of that happened, and I think people started get a bit disillusioned about science. As our fundamental naivete about what was possible started to shrivel, scientists were to blame.

Now we're at today, with scientists spending a lot of their time doing studies about how global warming is coming and raising the storm warning flags. We didn't (and don't) want to hear it and, if they were wrong about the man on Mars thing, maybe they were wrong about global warming also. How we got to today is a lot more complicated than I think people who didn't live through all of this really understand. Sigh. I'd give just about anything to be sitting in front of that TV again in 1969, when we were on the edge of doing just about anything, with no understanding of how badly we had started wrecking the environment.
Quoting 621. sar2401:





Quoting 604. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You mean Jason? He has tons of accounts on here, just ask Taz. He is our resident blogger who doesn't really bother anyone. Hence, why he is coolman. Kind of miss the days when guys like JFV and Stormtop were on here and then you had some guys who really knew what they were talking about like Weather456 and Atmoaggie, not saying we don't have knowledgeable bloggers like Jedkins01, TA, Drak, Levi, Kori, and many others not mentioned . I was just a lurker then, but those were the hay days of Wunderblog. Now we have the new generation of bloggers.


yeah... the site is actually better in the winter because mostly only the people with real knowledge stay. During Hurricane season the post quality gets noticeably worse, and there are far more trolls.
It is getting a little absurd up this way as well. 44F currently, forecasted high of 81F today with an expected low around 60F tonight. Then temps falling like a brick Thursday (tomorrow) afternoon to a forecasted low of 28F early Friday morning. High Friday probably will struggle to break 40F. Oh yes, and that frozen precipitation line continues to inch ever closer.

So many cold and gloomy days this winter. Seems everyone has some variation of a cold or respiratory virus. Looks like the pattern turns more "normal" beginning Sunday; albeit lots of clouds in the extended forecast.

Quoting 576. sar2401:

High here today was 84, and we should get to at least 80 tomorrow. Luckily, the freezing line isn't getting this far south while there's still moisture to be had but Thursday morning still looks a low of about 30. Those 50 degree swings in temperature, not to mention the 0.60 inches of barometric pressure loops is driving my arthritis nuts. Just wait until you're my age and climate change is in full swing. Just pray you don't get early onset arthritis.
Quoting 626. ncstorm:

Good Morning..not weather related but applicable to whats seen on this site..

If you watch MikeandMike in the morning some here should. They are going at those who post vile things on the internet behind fake handles.

Curt Shilling actually posted a congrats to his daughter on twitter and trolls took it upon themselves to post lies and vile hurtful comments against his family. He hunted them down through google to where one guy worked for the Yankees and was fired immediately.


Hopefully this is a lesson to those who think they can't be located on social media and can say anything to people without repercussions

Anyway have a good day..I'm going to enjoy my 70s today :)


I haven't seen anyone here talking about rape or other sexual explicit threats hurled at anyone on this site. I think the Schilling analogy is a little over the top. It's one thing to hurt someone's feelings on the internet using words, it's another thing to threaten someone with a disgusting act of personal violation or imply it. A comparison of the two is absurd by any means and relating it to the stuff that goes on here on WU is hyperbolic nonsense and nothing more.

If you come looking me up, I'll be happy to tell you the exact same thing. :) Happy Wednesday.
Quoting 595. nwobilderburg:

is Vongfon2014 the same person as Hurricanes2018. The post quality (or lack thereof) would seem to indicate so

No.
Quoting 611. BaltimoreBrian:

Boston has had 105.7" as of midnight, and their seasonal record is 107.6"

Worcester has had 115.6" as of midnight and their seasonal record is 132.9" Worcester made 3rd place yesterday.


Thanks(not) for those Worcester numbers, they translate to $6/inch for driveway plowing and that much snow ruins the ice fishing and pond hockey. I don't want to see another flake until January 2020.


The beaches in the Tampa Bay area are primed to be packed today as temps should climb into the 80s area wide.
Quoting 626. ncstorm:

Good Morning..not weather related but applicable to whats seen on this site..

If you watch MikeandMike in the morning some here should. They are going at those who post vile things on the internet behind fake handles.

Curt Shilling actually posted a congrats to his daughter on twitter and trolls took it upon themselves to post lies and vile hurtful comments against his family. He hunted them down through google to where one guy worked for the Yankees and was fired immediately.


Hopefully this is a lesson to those who think they can't be located on social media and can say anything to people without repercussions

Anyway have a good day..I'm going to enjoy my 70s today :)


Did you actually read what the "trolls" wrote about Schilling's daughter? If you have, I'm not sure why you would be comparing that to debates/arguments posted on this site. The significance of the comments is not even close. It would be nice if we could go one day on this blog without someone posting nonsense like this and trying to stir the pot.
March is really starting out warm here in Fort Myers.
Sunday's High - 87
Monday's High - 85
Tuesday's High - 87

And our 7 day forecast is nothing but temps in the 80s.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 632. Sfloridacat5:

March is really starting out warm here in Fort Myers.
Sunday's High - 87
Monday's High - 85
Tuesday's High - 87

And our 7 day forecast is for all 80 degrees and above.



We are 9 degrees above average in Tampa so far in March. It has been very warm.
635. beell
First guess on the snow winner for this event.

With the positive tilt of the longwave and the strong upper jet offering modest upglide almost parallel to the boundary, ascent may be aided, maximized, and focused with assist from the northern stream shortwave/ribbon of vorticity over this area beginning this evening.

First, thank you, sar2401 (551) & ScottLincoln (563), for responding to my query (532). I ought next immediately report that my original comment (30), erroneously implied that December of 2014 was a “single rain event,” month. Far from it, Sacramento arguably had 15 rain days that month, so I just got that way wrong. Also, the four days in February were the 6th, 7th, 8th, & 9th.

Having said that, I frequent policy blogs and try to do battle with the climate change minimalists. That is my thing. Hence, my purpose in visiting here, is to attempt to do a bit of diligence before making inappropriate assertions in that context, where each side tends to contour its statements as weights, and for greatest impact.

But, exactly where ARE we with this data? Writer Bob Hensen used the modifier “Astounding” for this split personality February just passed. That word is a form of astonishment, and brings to mind one of my favorite Brother stories, which he brought home from his training in the Army Signal Corps. They taught him that thousands of years ago, some engineer brought to the Egyptian scribe, whose duties included the invention of new glyphs when required, the problem of conveniently signifying the notion of one thousand thousands, our million. After giving this over-the-top matter some frustrated consideration, he actually came up with this representation of his astonishment at such a strange and otherworldly notion:

(̊ ő ̊) -- He looks better in Word --

Bewilderment signified by an open mouthed, fretted browed, human face. This is where I think we are. I used the example of the tragic loss of hotshot firefighters near Los Alamos a couple years ago in a comment at Real Climate, to illustrate that humans were now finding themselves in climatic circumstances simply beyond anything they had ever previously known. I think our colloquy establishes that as well. I propound an obviously inept daily randomness calculation which yields probabilities of tens of thousands against the January occurrence, to ~ten million against the complete dry string, and am wisely counseled that that “doesn’t sound right,” but that I’m raising a high pay grade issue. I closed my initial comment with the words “things have changed,” but sar uses “certainly unprecedented,” “unbelievable,” “pathetic,” and allusions to broken gauges. Scott’s advice strikes in me the immediate relief of a recovery of sensibility—that we broaden the analysis interval. Then he backs away a bit, confessing that the “best he’s got” on this “kind of rare” thing, leaves him less than certain that we know how to appropriately quantify it. And, since I’m looking for restraint here, you might appreciate the humor I take with bumping my “million-fold” unlikeliness, all the way to impossibility. Give a mad dog climate warrior a club like a “zero, zero Januaries outtah ~75,” as of last New Years, and I’m predisposed to turn that infinitude into: “The best statistical experts at Weather Underground say there was no chance Sacramento could get a completely dry January, as in, it simply isn’t possible!” I’m kidding of course, but I’m looking for a leash here guys, and not finding any rope. Returning to those hotshots, you can bet they gave the conditions they engaged the very best, concentration and utilization of caution and experience which the best in the world were capable of, and that they built into their thinking added measures for precaution, given the extremities they faced. In assessing whether an eighth of our population and half our fruit and vegetable cultivation is now placed by these phenomena in peril, we are just as lost as those guys. We don’t have a damn clue. Like Dorothy mused somewhere over that rainbow, I getting real nervous that “We’re not in Kansas any more.”
637. vis0

Quoting 523. Grothar:



If humans were meant to live in the cold, we would have been born with fur coats and snow shoes. Give me the heat any day. Even my Viking-German blood didn't help. I may be the only living person who lived in Norway who never put on skis.
...hmm hmm we were sort of wearing fur, i have a person called Larry whom when he goes to the beach and takes off his shirt some kids ask their mom "Why is that man wearing a fur coat?"   He can't even go shirtless near anti-fur events 'cause the the local area restaurants run out of ketchup packets. **Drum roll**   (i said Drum Not Durum Roll)
638. vis0

Quoting 529. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.


BPA exposure linked to autism spectrum disorder, study reports

*** Air pollution linked to slower cognitive development in children


* A new level of earthquake understanding: Surprise findings from San Andreas Fault rock sample


vis0:: PLEASE GO TO CMMNT #529 for the entire fantastic BB infolinks updates.



Thanks to BaltimoreBrain for the http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/15030 2150723.htm link on BPA.
        IN NO WAY DO TH FOLLOWING WORDS REPRESENT WXU OR ANY SANE PERSON.

THE FOLLOWING IS NOT FACTUAL AS IT PERTAINS TO THE SCIENTIFIC WORLD AS OF TODAY March  4th 2015, BUT IF YOU STUDY THE BRAIN OR KNOW SOMEONE WHO DOES SHOW THEM THIS AND TAKE IT AS A JOKE. In time if anyone who read this and is in the field of studying the human brain and notice something in their studies similar to what i'm to state below i hope it triggers memory of these words and helps in their research.  If you do discover something important don't come looking for me go ahead and take full credit.

In 1977 i wrote a SCHOOL paper for a teacher whom was also a Dr. The paper was on how plastics affects the brain (centered on Alzheimer) and how using certain plastic pipes to carry water as its chemicals act in a manner to shift the Brain's "sound magnetic lightgates" ("sound magnetic lightgates" are words i created and explained on 6 appended pgs. to that report. "lightgates" i think was then copyrighted by IBM ~2001). The teacher (Ms. V) luved my imagination and was the person whom was pushing me to take medical intern courses ~age 12/13.

One of the ways (i state not fact...yet) to reverse some Dementia was to take blood from each person every 8 yrs (at first specifically for those whose family genes lean toward dementia) just in case they need a blood transfusion as in using certain chemicals and even living not just near but more important at specific angles that criss-cross from the output of certain electrical HUM, those people are more likely to suffer a form of artificially accentuated opportunity for certain diseases to take hold, including the "disease" of Dementia during blood transfusions.  As i state that one characteristic of human blood is a very light magnetic PROPERTY that even if one receives the exact same  3 known characteristics of their BLOOD TYPE, IF THE BLOOD IS THE OPPOSITE "lightgate" POLARITY IT BLOCKS (NOT ERASES) MEMORY YET IN INTRODUCING THE STORED BLOOD ALLOWS THE BRAINS LIGHTGATES TO RESTORE MEMORY.

Why the 8yrs?

Since i think i erased most of the clues to this medical discovery from my WxU blog, here a re-posting instead of sending readers to a link, but only partial clues.  i state that complex entities interact via a form of light colours i label as the known shorthand of "R O Y G B I V +" (BUT add (+) is a "golden clear-ish" colour as an ascending & descending "window" for the other 7 colours to flow through correctly, the gold-ish thing is a form of steering mechanism.

The planet Earth uses these "ROYGBIV+" to determine how the Sun's own (ROYGBIV+) lightgate colours trigger weather at specific colours that bath this or any complex planet's 45 degree lightgates windows (why i for so many years ask Scientists to Meterologist (including Mr. Cantore) & even here on WxU in 2002, where is the Sun EXACTLY crossing the equator(s) at the point when Spring starts.  (after 1998 i was able to download vis Satellite imagery to figure this out, but asked WxU members in 2002 for the heck of it. No one replied with the Lat/Long area, some did type "it begins at a specific time on so & so date" genric reply.   If one takes notes of these equinox crossings one can figure what area is being triggered by what r o y g b i c colour but that takes thousands of years as ancient African & South American tribes had such records...what they've been destroyed,oh well.    See this Nullschool outline of Earth see the simplistic lines of 4 colours i (compu'r) drew.  When the Sun's Spring Equinox light crosses a certain colur and one knows what lightgate colour is dominant in the Sun's output & input one can figure out up to 8 yrs in advance what wxtrends will happen (the 8th yrs suffers in % by 66% errors but if i showed you i had even just 33% correctness on an 8 yrs wxtrends & threw in the Brooklyn Bridge you'd buy it...TAZ will you PaAH-LEEEZEE remove the "JUST SOLD" sign from the Bridge). BTW if the complex planet is NOT healthy then these 8 yr predictions also suffer in being correct, why its important to maintain a healthy planet, as one then can eventually make the wedding on a date that it will not rain...even if you wait 7 yrs to get married.

Oh oh going off on a tangent. Well if one could create the human skull of crystal and place other crystals near it the body that brain is joined to would react deeper than when one uses electrodes to stimulate brain activities.  As the brain's deeper memories and controls are stored in a mag-sound (crystal like) generated manner so its not affected by the magnetic push-pulls of the planet and other natural magnetic influences.  But plastics in having a minute static mag property that when its diluted even further and enters the blood and oops that minute chemical redirects the brains lightgates at first as disconnecting memory dashes but in time as long memory loses, but then again i'm a nut. Lets get  BACK to asking ,  "whats the latest on the ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOP charts"   hey, if one doesn't ask one doesn't learn.  Remember when you tugged at mommy's dress 300 times asking, why?  See now you know why, to learn.  BTW with due respect, don't tug at my "dress", i no longer answer questions i post bits n pieces when i see discoveries mentioning things i tried to get into the scientific community from 40 + yrs ago till last year, its my ego that for many years i kept chained now free saying "see!".  Those 40+ yrs drained me in waiting for anyone to ask questions.  i'm retired from teaching Galacsics and finally can walk around my little town, NYc and enjoy life without having Galacsics on my brain. BTW if you think the 8 yr stuff is caah-raap, its your right to think so but go read up on a Dr. Israel. (last was at Beth Israel, NYc...was at NYU Hospital in the 1990s when i tried to contact him, they day i sent him 20 pgs on my theory on lightgates he moved to Beth Israel Hospital) Dr. Israel whom is researching why brain Trauma seems to go in 8 yr patters e.g. 1-8yrs of age (brain trauma repairs faster than if one is age 17 to 24, 25 to 32 so on). Since i'm one that thinks AT TIMES NOT ALWAYS a persons name influences their decisions "el" at the end of a name being to think of the higher level of energy/thinking and i saw a Dr. IsraEL researching the Brain, i went for it . As i state in ancient writings i think the use of "eL" in angelic names as Israel, Gabriel, Ezekiel,  Amel (El, aka  Grothar) to present knowledge via parables. (if i get struck by lightning,  ya know why...i was holding golf club under a tree wearing gold cleats on a hill during a thunder storm : - P)

As to another BaltimoreBrain link http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/15030 3123927.htm tell them to record/read the gases when they drill deeply into earth, Why? Don't get me started i'll be explaining how real crop circles (only 1-3% of those on Earth) show where comple life exists elsewhere in this universe by the wheats internally checmically burning which causes the wheat to bend from the inside out as though hermetically sealed this bending is a reaction to a form of light that acts like a gas when coming in contact withg wheat.
Weather:: 50% chance that that daylight will be followed by night-time...GFS predicted the opposite pfft!
639. dava2
Why then, does the media only rant and rave about cold weather -- albeit, record cold -- but barely a peep about record warmth? They get hysterical about cold weather, in the WINTER, but ignore record warm weather in the WINTER. Astounding and frustrating and a complete lack of journalistic responsibility. I guess they are afraid that, if they start lamenting about record warmth, viewers who are on the fence will run to Fox News, where they can be told what to think through lies and obfuscation. The result: An ignorant and ill-informed populace. So thank you once again Dr. Masters, for communicating the facts. You are preforming a great public service for those of us who appreciate facts. Thank you.