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Crunch Time Ahead for California Drought Relief

By: Bob Henson 6:25 PM GMT on February 27, 2015

Californians are watching anxiously to see if a “Miracle March” or “Awesome April” salvages the worst snowpack season on record thus far in parts of the Sierra Nevada. Snow that piles up across the mountain range from autumn through spring furnishes more than 60% of the state’s water for consumer and agricultural use. Winter precipitation across California hasn’t been too far from average, but even more than usual, most of it has fallen in a relatively small number of wet storms, mainly in the first half of December and early February. The San Francisco Bay area saw its first bone-dry January in more than a century of weather records. Outside of December, which brought 17 wet days, San Francisco (downtown) has seen just 14 days of measurable rain since October 1.


Figure 1. Departures from normal for the height of the 500-millibar surface (in meters), averaged for the period Nov. 1 - Feb. 14 in 2013-14 (top) and 2014-15 (bottom). The positive departures (red) correspond to the location of the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge”. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL, via California Weather Blog.


In many ways this winter resembles 2013-14, when the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” just offshore steered wet systems well north of California. This year’s upper-level features (Figure 1, right) have tended to park a little bit east of last year’s, enough to extent record warmth to the Great Basin and allow the occasional big storm to push its way onshore while smaller, weaker storms spin across Southern California. Upper-level ridging has strengthened over the past month, leading Daniel Swain (California Weather Blog) to proclaim the arrival of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Redux.

A cardinal feature of this winter’s storms from California to Washington is their unusual warmth, which means that much of the water ran off from the Sierra as rain rather than accumulating as snow. Reservoirs in northern California got a healthy boost, now running from 70% - 100% of average for this time of year, but central California reservoirs are still hurting, most of them holding half at best of the seasonal average. The “reservoir” of water within snowpack is in far worse shape from the Sierra Nevada north through the Cascades, with most sites reporting 25% or less of the amount of water typically stored in snowpack at this time of year. Figure 2 illustrates the depleted state of snowfall in Yosemite National Park at elevations of more than 8,000 feet.


Figure 2. On February 19, the NWS office in Hanford, CA, tweeted this photo of a nearly snowless landscape, taken in Yosemite National Park at an elevation of 8,100 feet. Image credit: Elizabeth Christie.


California is entering its fourth consecutive year of widespread drought, as measured by the U.S. Drought Monitor, which takes into account soil conditions and streamflow as well as precipitation. This is the third multiyear drought in California since 2000, and as Figure 3 shows, it’s the worst of the three in terms of the geographic extent of the most dire drought categories. Each year of consecutive drought magnifies the impact, as progressively tougher adaptations must be called on. Last month, California’s State Water Project anticipated being able to meet only 15% of the contracted water needs of its customers (which include 25 million Californians) in 2015. Most of the burden will fall on agriculture, the main user of water in California, but cities will be affected as well. David Behar (San Francisco Public Utilities Commission) told me that his agency has asked customers to cut 10% from their total water use. “That’s happened across our service area in a very solid way. I think we’re seeing people take this drought very seriously,” he said. "Even a 20% cut would be tough, but we could weather it.” The bigger question is what might happen in a drought lasting a decade or longer: ”Every drought we live through this century will be a dry run, no pun intended, for what we might see in the future.”

Bob Henson


Figure 3. The percent of California’s land area at various stages of drought over the last 15 years, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Image credit: NWS/Hanford and drought.gov.

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. VR46L
Quoting 486. BaltimoreBrian:

Some subtly extreme weather in the mid-Atlantic last week.

Pressure at NYC on Feb 28th 30.83" (1043.4 mb)

Pressure at Philadelphia 30.86" (1045.0 mb)

Pressure at Atlantic City 30.83" (1044.1 mb)

Pressure at Wilmington, DE
30.86" (1045.1 mb)

Pressure at Washington DC 30.88" (1045.5 mb)

Pressure at Richmond, VA 30.85" (1045.4 mb)

Pressure at Norfolk, VA 30.83" (1043.8 mb)

Last and definitely most

Pressure at Baltimore, MD 30.93" (1047.3 mb)


Is that not the one system ....
Quoting 496. bwtranch:


More than just that, China has big water problems. China Has Launched the Largest Water-Pipeline Project in Historygood for them..now what about the USA?
No way in hell we get La Nina with a very strong warm pool as this. Expect El-Nino to stregthen this Summer.

Significant westerly wind burst occuring at the Dateline.

I'm just gonna focus on Wednesday and not what comes after.


this might be it for today.... Suns out, but the radar still looks like it could give some up. So, far .05
Quoting 497. JrWeathermanFL:

Not ready for the high of 81 on Tuesday....
I refuse to wear shorts in the first week of March :P

...Mainly because I haven't went shopping for any and none fit :/

The hard life of a Floridian..


Why? Meteorologists consider March 1st to be the start of spring in Florida, low 80's is not unusual at all in early March. I like cool weather in the winter, but the cool season has lasted long enough, who wouldn't want spring warmth in March in Florida?
Just had the first thunderstorm of the year for me earlier. A few flashes of lightning and lots of thunder. Will be interesting to see how spring/summer turn out. Winter has generally been around average and I got a dusting of snow one morning, so much better than the last winter! Although saying that plenty of other places across the UK got a lot of snow and will be getting more snow tomorrow.

I wonder how the ever elusive El Nino will pan out. I give up trying to predict and will just wait to see what happens. The 2015 hurricane season will be an interesting one to watch. Or not, depending on the activity lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Why? Meteorologists consider March 1st to be the start of spring in Florida, low 80's is not unusual at all in early March. I like cool weather in the winter, but the cool season has lasted long enough, who wouldn't want spring warmth in March in Florida?


I, personally, look forward to the blazing heat that's coming in two months. High dBZ thunderstorms galore!
511. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA
SUBJECT::Atmospheric stream (AtmosStream) a play on words from the professional's Atmospheric River. Several plumes of moisture regenerate over SE USofA mainly Florida. So much so that it looks like a stream of moisture rich clouds heading from ENSO's eastern most area (eastern Pacific) towards GoMx (Golfo de Mexico) and eventually the North Eastern areas of the Atlantic Ocean.
D&T:: On animation, when you see a dashed yellow line under the D&T it represents that anbout a third of a day's frames could not be downloaded from the public servers at NOAA. Therefore the animation skips. Portions that appear speed up are caused by the input of more frames.
http://youtu.be/78OX3U4WGlo (1168x504)


Quoting 510. washingtonian115:




Beautiful!
Quoting 506. PedleyCA:


this might be it for today.... Suns out, but the radar still looks like it could give some up. So, far .05


I feel your pain bro.........still raining at my place! Has not stopped since 6am.........mostly light/moderate, a good soaking rain, approaching 1" at my house. Looks like the cutoff line was San Onofre and a line NE from there. Temecula even has .70 so far. Just missed ya today.........maybe tomorrow you get it good.......hope so!

Still a few more chances.....
Yes, please.

Quoting 510. washingtonian115:


Quoting 514. PedleyCA:


Still a few more chances.....


Hope so!
Quoting 496. bwtranch:


More than just that, China has big water problems. China Has Launched the Largest Water-Pipeline Project in History


Big water problems lead to drastic solutions which lead to bigger problems. This isn't going to end well. I sincerely hope the U.S. doesn't go down this route, but given our track record, we will drain every ounce of water from this country and pipe it around before we make sustainability a genuine option.
Quoting 439. Grothar:


World’s longest water grid pipeline in Telangana
water grid in Telangana

World’s longest water grid in Telangana State The proposed water grid pipeline of the State longest pipeline. At 1,26,036 km in length, it would be four fold greater than the perimeter of the earth which is 33,000 km, the Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao said on Monday.

Wow. I'd like to see the faucet at the end of this thing.


Link

Every day on here is a geography lesson :)

Quoting 509. CybrTeddy:



I, personally, look forward to the blazing heat that's coming in two months. High dBZ thunderstorms galore!


Exactly, people exaggerate the length of Florida heat, it hasn't been hot since mid October, and it won't get consistently hot until some point in May again. Let's face it, 80's is not hot weather, it's comfortable spring weather. Plus I agree, the arrival of summer will bring all the interesting weather.

I like each season here, I like the cool season as it's a nice relief and change from summer, but I'm ready for spring, and it's on it's way!
Quoting 471. AGWcreationists:

Europe's Solar Power Industry Braces For Solar Eclipse

Thanks for linking this...learn something new every day. This never occurred to me as being an issue before.
Quoting 443. ozelloslim:

Did anyone notice an extraordinary high barometer reading yesterday in the mid-Atlantic region? I recorded a 30.85 in southern Delaware and my son recorded a 30.89 just south of Baltimore. Both were on Davis Vantage Pro stations. Where can you find all time records.

Anyone know where to find this? I found sources on Wiki and WU, but I was wondering where NWS's info is. It's not something I've gone looking for before...
Quoting 510. washingtonian115:


LOL on a stick dipped in Dorito sauce!! XD....wait that's right after my spring break ends (8,^(  )= .........give me back my Dorito sauce!!







Man I have the worst sense of humor on the planet. *Goes to cry in corner.*




Finally started raining here - most has gone to my north

525. txjac
Wow, was just reading my old hometown newspaper from Ohio. The town I grew up in had 800 people ...so its technically a village ...anyhoo ...they are of course talking weather and snow ...and I'll be da*med ...they are posting links to WU! Woo-hoo ...not as boonie as it used to be!
Pretty steady rain today....about .10 per hour the last 12 hours....this site is the nearest official reporting site to me.......I think we have received a tad more than this site.



Quoting 525. txjac:

Wow, was just reading my old hometown newspaper from Ohio. The town I grew up in had 800 people ...so its technically a village ...anyhoo ...they are of course talking weather and snow ...and I'll be da*med ...they are posting links to WU! Woo-hoo ...not as boonie as it used to be!

I'm impressed they have a newspaper. How big was your class size?
Quoting 519. Jedkins01:


Exactly, people exaggerate the length of Florida heat, it hasn't been hot since mid October, and it won't get consistently hot until some point in May again. Let's face it, 80's is not hot weather, it's comfortable spring weather. Plus I agree, the arrival of summer will bring all the interesting weather.

I like each season here, I like the cool season as it's a nice relief and change from summer, but I'm ready for spring, and it's on it's way!


You mean just before Halloween. It stayed hot later than normal last year.
I want a rainy 2015 from spring to late fall!
530. txjac
Quoting 527. LAbonbon:


I'm impressed they have a newspaper. How big was your class size?


When I went to parochial school - 18 (grades 1-8)
High school graduating class was 40

Hometown newspaper is weekly ...I was reading the Norwalk reflector which is daily ..Norwalk is the town closest to me
Quoting 530. txjac:



When I went to parochial school - 18 (grades 1-8)
High school graduating class was 40



I did that! St Patrick and St Marys.............I think they used me to become expert in ruler usage!
532. txjac
Quoting 529. CaribBoy:

I want a rainy 2015 from spring to late fall!


I'm with you CaribBoy ..Not in to the suffocating heat ...like the cloud cover and rain when its hot out

Launch tonight from Cape Canaveral, FL is planned for 10:50pm EST aboard a Falcon-9. Live coverage is here. Interesting satellite. It's description follows below from Eutelsat.

Located at 114.9° West, EUTELSAT 115 West B will extend our satellite coverage from Alaska and Canada down to South America, with unique coverage over the Galapagos and Easter Island, transforming Eutelsat into a truly Pan-American company.

EUTELSAT 115 West B will provide the Americas with new satellite capacity to reach markets serving high-growth data, video, mobility and government applications.

Ku-band resources, connected to three fixed beams covering the Americas from Alaska to Patagonia, will provide optimised regional coverage of Canada, Mexico and South America for data services including broadband access, government connectivity and corporate networks. Video services include occasional Use, DTH and DTT.

A semi-hemispheric C-band beam will provide groundbreaking coverage from Alaska to Peru. This is optimised for services including video distribution, mobility, cellular backhaul and trunking and government services.

The EUTELSAT 115 West B satellite will be of particular interest to ISPs, aeronautical, maritime, oil & gas, telecom operators and government agencies, as well as news, sports & entertainment broadcasters.

Manufactured by Boeing Defense and Space, EUTELSAT 115 West B is the first all-electric satellite of our fleet. Its revolutionary design significantly reduces launch mass while keeping payload performance, thereby providing more efficient solutions for customers.
Quoting 529. CaribBoy:

I want a rainy 2015 from spring to late fall!

Yes, same here. I would love a more wet rainy season in N. Florida with pop up storms most days and no big dry lulls. This past year wasn't that impressive in terms of significant/strong pop up t-storms.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Anyone know where to find this? I found sources on Wiki and WU, but I was wondering where NWS's info is. It's not something I've gone looking for before...
It's somewhere on the NCEP web site but I'll be darned if I can find it. It seems Chris Burt found the data for his posts but, without a link, I don't know where got the data. You'd think this shouldn't be so difficult but it apparently is.
Link
My video on Winter Storm Thor Part 1.
SOLAR WIND SPARKS NORTHERN LIGHTS: A solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Feb. 28th, causing compass needles to swerve and sparking bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Mika-Pekka Markkanen was exploring a cave in Iceland when the G1-class geomagnetic storm peaked. He looked out and took this picture:

Link

amazing pictures that i couldn't figure out how to upload :)
More than just that, China has big water problems. China Has Launched the Largest Water-Pipeline Project in History.

i think they have a bit more money then india i would think they'd be doing the desalination thing.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
More than just that, China has big water problems. China Has Launched the Largest Water-Pipeline Project in History.

i think they have a bit more money then india i would think they'd be doing the desalination thing.
You'd think differently if you were a high official of the ChiCom government. The secondary reason for this project is to put a couple hundred thousand to work for the next 10 years so the Chinese GDP looks better on paper. The main reason for this project is the central government's need to control some of the uppity provinces. Once the project is done, the central government will control which province has to contribute and which province gets water at the other end. Give the central government too much grief and you'll find your province will have "technical issues" with the pipeline and doesn't get water. It's a perfect solution in a totalitarian state. Nothing in China is ever what it appears to be to Westerners.
Very slow season expected.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



I did that! St Patrick and St Marys.............I think they used me to become expert in ruler usage!
Ha! You too, eh. I don't think my knuckles ever worked right after Sister Agatha and the crew got though working me over. What a different world it was then. If one of the penguins send home a note about how bad I had been and that they had to "discipline" me, the old man would give it to me again. I really hated it then but, in retrospect, we didn't have a disrupted classroom, and I think we all had a little more focus about doing our studies. I don't know how it is now but I imagine they have lots of parent-teacher conferences. I never met a kid who was afraid of a "conference", but we were all afraid when that heavy duty ruled came out. :-)
I have noticed that the Bermuda High has been strong this winter which is why we have been seeing the trajectory of storm tracks over the Tennessee River Valley on up to the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, we haven't really been seeing those GOM lows that go through central FL. and track up the along the east coast which I think is a good sign that the high has been strong and the mere fact that FL. has had a relatively mild winter supports the strong high. So the question is will it stay strong enough during the hurricane season, that could allow for more westbound landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes? Is this the year we bust the drought of hurricane landfall for FL.? Major Hurricane landfall on the CONUS? I guess time will tell. Just 3 more months and we will find out.

Quoting 542. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have noticed that the Bermuda High has been strong this winter which is why we have been seeing the trajectory of storm tracks over the Tennessee River Valley on up to the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, we haven't really been seeing those GOM lows that go through central FL. and track up the along the east coast which I think is a good sign that the high has been strong and the mere fact that FL. has had a relatively mild winter supports the strong high. So the question is will it stay strong enough during the hurricane season, that could allow for more westbound landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes? Is this the year we bust the drought of hurricane landfall for FL.? Major Hurricane landfall on the CONUS? I guess time will tell. Just 3 more months and we will find out.




Hum, the year of Caribbean cruisers? Someone will sure be happy!! Lol
Quoting 540. Gearsts:

Very slow season expected.



Maybe more Gonzalo like storms :)
545. beell

click image for NWS Jackson, KY Hazardous Weather Briefing
546. flsky
Skye - did you see it? Very foggy at my place, so it might not have happened tonight.

Quoting 533. Skyepony:


Launch tonight from Cape Canaveral, FL is planned for 10:50pm EST aboard a Falcon-9. Live coverage is here. Interesting satellite. It's description follows below from Eutelsat.

Located at 114.9° West, EUTELSAT 115 West B will extend our satellite coverage from Alaska and Canada down to South America, with unique coverage over the Galapagos and Easter Island, transforming Eutelsat into a truly Pan-American company.

EUTELSAT 115 West B will provide the Americas with new satellite capacity to reach markets serving high-growth data, video, mobility and government applications.

Ku-band resources, connected to three fixed beams covering the Americas from Alaska to Patagonia, will provide optimised regional coverage of Canada, Mexico and South America for data services including broadband access, government connectivity and corporate networks. Video services include occasional Use, DTH and DTT.

A semi-hemispheric C-band beam will provide groundbreaking coverage from Alaska to Peru. This is optimised for services including video distribution, mobility, cellular backhaul and trunking and government services.

The EUTELSAT 115 West B satellite will be of particular interest to ISPs, aeronautical, maritime, oil & gas, telecom operators and government agencies, as well as news, sports & entertainment broadcasters.

Manufactured by Boeing Defense and Space, EUTELSAT 115 West B is the first all-electric satellite of our fleet. Its revolutionary design significantly reduces launch mass while keeping payload performance, thereby providing more efficient solutions for customers.

Quoting flsky:
Skye - did you see it? Very foggy at my place, so it might not have happened tonight.

Looked awesome from Naples, as usual...
Quoting 519. Jedkins01:



Exactly, people exaggerate the length of Florida heat, it hasn't been hot since mid October, and it won't get consistently hot until some point in May again. Let's face it, 80's is not hot weather, it's comfortable spring weather. Plus I agree, the arrival of summer will bring all the interesting weather.

I like each season here, I like the cool season as it's a nice relief and change from summer, but I'm ready for spring, and it's on it's way!


Uhh I was in Brandeton and Anna Maria Island Nov 14-18th and we had three days above 80. I would call that hot.
On another note, can we talk about the consistent failure of even semi-accurate winter storm predictions this year?

Almost every storm we've had in the Long Island region has been so far from accurate. Especially that first blizzard with a prediction of 26-34 inches and we received 13 inches. The next storm said 3-6 inches and we got a dusting. Then the storm we got last weekend was supposed to be a rain event and I got caught on the road with 4 inches on the ground within 3 hours ( I wont go by the TWC Winter Storm names cause I find that ridiculous).

Up until 12pm today, when we already had 2+ inches of snow of the ground in Long Beach NY, the NWS held steady at a 1-3 inch range with a turn over to rain by 9pm and steady throughout the night. It just stopped snowing an hour ago (10:30pm EST) and we have easily 6 inches on the ground in some spots with about 0.10 inches of ice on top. Looked at the radar and the storm is already off to our east, which means no rain. Current forecast calls for 80% chance of snow showers until mid morning.

Honestly cannot remember a season where the forecasting has been so absolutely terrible.
Quoting 507. Jedkins01:



Why? Meteorologists consider March 1st to be the start of spring in Florida, low 80's is not unusual at all in early March. I like cool weather in the winter, but the cool season has lasted long enough, who wouldn't want spring warmth in March in Florida?


Oh I like the warmth. It just. Feels like winter flew by here. We got one good hard freeze. I only got to enjoy hot chocolate by the fire about 4 times.
But there's always next year.
I'm 15 and I drove on the interstate for the first time the other day. In the rain. And the dark. While under construction.
Pretty scary.

Gardened in between rain showers yesterday. Hadnt broken a sweat in a while till yesterday. But maybe we'll get some produce.

Other than that much hasn't happened this year so far relating to weather. Tried jv basketball in order to shed about 5 pounds but put on 20. Go figure. If the days stay pretty maybe I can run some. Don't really have any good ideas to handle it :/
Quoting 551. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm 15 and I drove on the interstate for the first time the other day. In the rain. And the dark. While under construction.
Pretty scary.

Gardened in between rain showers yesterday. Hadnt broken a sweat in a while till yesterday. But maybe we'll get some produce.

Other than that much hasn't happened this year so far relating to weather. Tried jv basketball in order to shed about 5 pounds but put on 20. Go figure. If the days stay pretty maybe I can run some. Don't really have any good ideas to handle it :/

You don't really have any good ideas to lose weight? Try your diet. It matters more than any other method out there.
Quoting 549. tc1120:

On another note, can we talk about the consistent failure of even semi-accurate winter storm predictions this year?

Almost every storm we've had in the Long Island region has been so far from accurate. Especially that first blizzard with a prediction of 26-34 inches and we received 13 inches. The next storm said 3-6 inches and we got a dusting. Then the storm we got last weekend was supposed to be a rain event and I got caught on the road with 4 inches on the ground within 3 hours ( I wont go by the TWC Winter Storm names cause I find that ridiculous).

Up until 12pm today, when we already had 2+ inches of snow of the ground in Long Beach NY, the NWS held steady at a 1-3 inch range with a turn over to rain by 9pm and steady throughout the night. It just stopped snowing an hour ago (10:30pm EST) and we have easily 6 inches on the ground in some spots with about 0.10 inches of ice on top. Looked at the radar and the storm is already off to our east, which means no rain. Current forecast calls for 80% chance of snow showers until mid morning.

Honestly cannot remember a season where the forecasting has been so absolutely terrible.

New York and surrounding cities have had the displeasure of being very near the mix line in most winter storms this season. A track only a few miles north or south from projections can lead to wildly different solutions.
Quoting 534. opal92nwf:


Yes, same here. I would love a more wet rainy season in N. Florida with pop up storms most days and no big dry lulls. This past year wasn't that impressive in terms of significant/strong pop up t-storms.

June 2010- all pop up type storm coverage. Yes, I was zealous enough to take a picture of the tv screen.

I know what's going to consume a good part of my spring break time coming up in a week, going fishing, and then this:

Quoting 550. JrWeathermanFL:



Oh I like the warmth. It just. Feels like winter flew by here. We got one good hard freeze. I only got to enjoy hot chocolate by the fire about 4 times.
But there's always next year.


I gotcha, I guess it's all perspective, you may just like cool weather man than me. I do like the cooler change, but from my perspective, winter has been plenty long enough. I don't like 80's in winter, but March is not winter in Florida, and I'm happy it is that way.

I like our overall short winters, to me they are long enough to bring a nice change from the season of heat, but short enough to bring the warmth of Florida back.

But maybe you like winter more. I notice you did say you haven't broken a sweat in a while, I don't want to offend you, but I want you to know that sweat and the physical work that produces it is a good thing as long as it's done safely. exercise and the sweat that it produces make fell like crap but it produces many good benefits.

One of the best is that once you get used to hard fitness in the heat, dealing with heat when not exercising becomes so much more comfortable. One of the ways I've learned to get used to summer heat in Florida more is going running in the heat. You have to be careful not to push too hard, but if done safely, its a great way to get in shape and you'll find that it makes adjusting to hot humid days a lot easier when not working out.

Also fitness is one of those things that feels like it's getting no where at first and sucks for a while, but once a fit level is reached, there is such a great stress relief, and the good feelings from it will over time, more and ore outweigh the pain, lol.

Whatever you do, don't give up and don't think bad of yourself, and most importantly, don't compare yourself to others, just challenge yourself.
Quoting 549. tc1120:

On another note, can we talk about the consistent failure of even semi-accurate winter storm predictions this year?

Almost every storm we've had in the Long Island region has been so far from accurate. Especially that first blizzard with a prediction of 26-34 inches and we received 13 inches. The next storm said 3-6 inches and we got a dusting. Then the storm we got last weekend was supposed to be a rain event and I got caught on the road with 4 inches on the ground within 3 hours ( I wont go by the TWC Winter Storm names cause I find that ridiculous).

Up until 12pm today, when we already had 2 inches of snow of the ground in Long Beach NY, the NWS held steady at a 1-3 inch range with a turn over to rain by 9pm and steady throughout the night. It just stopped snowing an hour ago (10:30pm EST) and we have easily 6 inches on the ground in some spots with about 0.10 inches of ice on top. Looked at the radar and the storm is already off to our east, which means no rain. Current forecast calls for 80% chance of snow showers until mid morning.

Honestly cannot remember a season where the forecasting has been so absolutely terrible.

Regarding this recent snow event, I took a look at the AFDs issued by OKX between 1 am and 10:26 am EST.

1:00 am - 2-5", 0.10" ice, w/ 4-6" snow elsewhere, "EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AS FAST IF NOT FASTER THAN THE FASTEST MODEL...WHICH IS THE GFS." and "DO NOT HAVE ANY AREA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT NYC/LONG ISLAND/MOST OF NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO ZR LATE SUNDAY EVENING" and "PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT."

4:26 am - 2-4", 0.10" ice, 4-6 elsewhere, mix w/ change to freezing rain Sun eve, "PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT."

6:11 am - same

10:39 am - same, and stated 'GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST AND SNOW RATIOS OF 12 TO 1'

According to recorded observations at JFK (the closest recording station to Long Beach I could find), snow began between noon and 1 pm, and freezing rain was recorded at 17:51, 19:51 and 20:51.

Snow totals for Nassau County are almost all between 4 and 6 inches, with most about 5". Looking at this map, Long Beach and the strip of the south shore of Long Island, got 4-6. Immediately outside this area got 2-4, w/ a heavier band east of your location.


I didn't see 1-3" in the forecast anywhere. They nailed the ice forecast, apparently. For your immediate area, they may have slightly underestimated the snow amounts expected, but they discussed higher amounts in every forecast. And for the area immediately to your north, the event was very close to what was forecast.



Quoting 552. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You don't really have any good ideas to lose weight? Try your diet. It matters more than any other method out there.

An old timer once told me 'eat less, move more'. Such simplicity, but totally true.
Quoting 558. LAbonbon:


An old timer once told me 'eat less, move more'. Such simplicity, but totally true.
Also, people tend to forget that your body burns the most calories while you sleep. And since most people are sleep deprived and don't work out...
560. vis0
Now i've (almost) seen everything, an almost Fujiwhara effect near Fresno see your fav sat imagery and watch the looping ends of 2 fronts dance one heading NE other heading SW... "Swing Your Partner 'Round and 'Round, and Turn Your partner in & out now throw yer partner WHAO WHAO someone get washi115 a barf bag ...too much lobster??
Quoting 552. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You don't really have any good ideas to lose weight? Try your diet. It matters more than any other method out there.


It's choosing a diet that's hard. And choosing what to work on first. But I'll figure it out
Quoting 556. Jedkins01:



I gotcha, I guess it's all perspective, you may just like cool weather man than me. I do like the cooler change, but from my perspective, winter has been plenty long enough. I don't like 80's in winter, but March is not winter in Florida, and I'm happy it is that way.

I like our overall short winters, to me they are long enough to bring a nice change from the season of heat, but short enough to bring the warmth of Florida back.

But maybe you like winter more. I notice you did say you haven't broken a sweat in a while, I don't want to offend you, but I want you to know that sweat and the physical work that produces it is a good thing as long as it's done safely. exercise and the sweat that it produces make fell like crap but it produces many good benefits.

One of the best is that once you get used to hard fitness in the heat, dealing with heat when not exercising becomes so much more comfortable. One of the ways I've learned to get used to summer heat in Florida more is going running in the heat. You have to be careful not to push too hard, but if done safely, its a great way to get in shape and you'll find that it makes adjusting to hot humid days a lot easier when not working out.

Also fitness is one of those things that feels like it's getting no where at first and sucks for a while, but once a fit level is reached, there is such a great stress relief, and the good feelings from it will over time, more and ore outweigh the pain, lol.

Whatever you do, don't give up and don't think bad of yourself, and most importantly, don't compare yourself to others, just challenge yourself.

Thanks for your input. I do need to get more active and just do whatever coincides with the weather.
I've been just sitting inside unless it's a completely beautiful day..probably need a little more activity..
And not eating out every meal lol
564. beell
Good day to fly towards the northeastern US on Wednesday (from the southwest) with a 150 knot upper jet streak in place.


03/02 06Z GFS 300 mb heights, winds-valid 12Z Wednesday


WPC Forecast fronts, pressure-valid 12Z Wednesday

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
452 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK. THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP. WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF 24 HOURS.
Oh C'mon!

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Clouds rapidly increase in the morning with a 30-40 percent chance (highest in western areas) of snow before noon. Snow and/or sleet is likely in the afternoon but rapidly changing to freezing rain, with highs in the low-to-mid 30s. Snowfall accumulations are probably less than an inch. Iciness, in the afternoon, shouldn’t be as widespread as Sunday, but slick sidewalks, driveways and side roads are once again possible, especially in our colder suburbs. Confidence: Medium
Quoting 562. JrWeathermanFL:



It's choosing a diet that's hard. And choosing what to work on first. But I'll figure it out


Google 'ketogenic diet', 'Atkins diet', and 'palaeolithic diet'. All are low carb, which is the important thing. The 'calories in, calories out' mantra is over simplistic. Carbs, particularly refined carbs, such as sugar, bread, white rice, bakery products, breakfast cereals, potatoes and even fruit, cause weight gain more than the same number of calories in fats and oils.
GFS shows moderate to heavy snow for D.C Thursday morning.The CMC shows 7 to 8 inches for us and I need to get a hold of the Euro snow map to see if it still shows significant snow.UKMET shows 12-13 inches
Good Morning Florida Weather Peeps!

A very interesting and unusual weather pattern could be on the way potentially starting this weekend and the reason for this is a Deep Trough that is forecast to set up across the Central & Western Gulf. This trough being so far south and displaced from the overall jet stream pattern across the US will act as a forcing mechanism to pull Deep Tropical moisture from 2 Rich sources the Caribbean & E-Pac. Again there is decent agreement on this set up from both the Euro and GFS so we need to watch this as we go thru this week.



Folks we could see the Flood Gates open across FL next week. Notice the moisture trail below.



The beginning of this pattern change is out in California right now.


Quoting 546. flsky:

Skye - did you see it? Very foggy at my place, so it might not have happened tonight.



Nope..Exhaustion got me. Slept right through it. According to Spaceflightnow..looks like separation of the Eutelsat 115 West B spacecraft went well.
Quoting 563. JrWeathermanFL:


Thanks for your input. I do need to get more active and just do whatever coincides with the weather.
I've been just sitting inside unless it's a completely beautiful day..probably need a little more activity..
And not eating out every meal lol


When I was unhappy with my BMI a couple of years ago, the only major lifestyle change I made was the amount of meals I ate at home. Going from roughly 50% to nearly 90% homecooked meals. Saw immediate benefits, which slowly tapered off.

That's when I began examining what I was eating at home and did the following: more fruits and vegetables, limit sodium intake, and monitor carbohydrates (emphasizing omega-3 fats like fish and lean proteins.) Saw immediate benefits, but again slowly tapered off.

As of the start of 2015, I've added a significant increase in physical activity, primarily cardio. Fitbit reminds me to move, and I never actually realized how inactive I was. Moving much, much more now (and nothing intense yet, it's hard to go running with several feet of snow and ice on everything..) and I'm again seeing immediate benefits. Only 10 pounds to reach my doctor-recommended BMI level of 25.

And now, back to the weather.
Quoting 562. JrWeathermanFL:



It's choosing a diet that's hard. And choosing what to work on first. But I'll figure it out


When going down this route, it's important to remember "diets" aren't sustainable, they are quick fixes that rarely work long term. You'll hear a lot about diets from a lot of people, but you can't stay on Atkins, Paleo, etc forever, they are not designed for that nutritionally. Eating healthy is a lifestyle not a diet. I wish you the best.
Quoting 566. yonzabam:



Google 'ketogenic diet', 'Atkins diet', and 'palaeolithic diet'. All are low carb, which is the important thing. The 'calories in, calories out' mantra is over simplistic. Carbs, particularly refined carbs, such as sugar, bread, white rice, bakery products, breakfast cereals, potatoes and even fruit, cause weight gain more than the same number of calories in fats and oils.


In general, if you concentrate on calories there is no room for refined carbs anyways.
Quoting 542. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have noticed that the Bermuda High has been strong this winter which is why we have been seeing the trajectory of storm tracks over the Tennessee River Valley on up to the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, we haven't really been seeing those GOM lows that go through central FL. and track up the along the east coast which I think is a good sign that the high has been strong and the mere fact that FL. has had a relatively mild winter supports the strong high. So the question is will it stay strong enough during the hurricane season, that could allow for more westbound landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes? Is this the year we bust the drought of hurricane landfall for FL.? Major Hurricane landfall on the CONUS? I guess time will tell. Just 3 more months and we will find out.


Like 2013 with the racing fast trade winds? NO!!
2013 in a nutshell
Quoting 573. Gearsts:

Like 2013 with the racing fast trade winds? NO!!


First off what he said is not true as we have seen many Gulf system ride across FL and up the East coast leading to massive snow storms across the NE and the image below is from a passing area of High pressure. Here in Orlando we are nearly double our average for the year so far precip wise.

A good tight Band of Rain just went through here, got .02-.03.......
Quoting 575. PedleyCA:


A good tight Band of Rain just went through here, got .02-.03.......


Yup that upper air system is what will be responsible for setting the wheels in motion to give FL an unusual set up come this weekend into next week.

img src="">
2015 in a nutshell. Very large warm pool and continues to increase anomalies now up to 5C



Westerly Wind Burst currently over Nino 4 is moving east.

Quoting 567. washingtonian115:

GFS shows moderate to heavy snow for D.C Thursday morning.The CMC shows 7 to 8 inches for us and I need to get a hold of the Euro snow map to see if it still shows significant snow.UKMET shows 12-13 inches



ECMWF was 8-10in. on Eurowx
Sheets of ice up to a foot thick in the Chesapeake Bay have beached small boats and fishermen, hampered operations at the port of Baltimore and kept one Coast Guard cutter busy tending to stranded islanders for more than a week amid the worst freeze in decades.

A ship designed to break ice recently gave up on carving a path through the eastern Chesapeake Bay near Rock Hall after it moved only two miles in five hours. The conditions are so treacherous, even the pilots who spend years training to guide ships up the bay can't navigate in the dark, their trusty buoys turned to icy mounds or pushed aside by floes

Link
El Nino is a Hoax, there has been no warming for 10 years, Al Gore,

Yada, yada, yada..
Quoting 573. Gearsts:

Like 2013 with the racing fast trade winds? NO!!
2013 in a nutshell



No, please no more year like 2013 :/
Quoting 578. Drakoen:



ECMWF was 8-10in. on Eurowx
Thanks.Looks like the models have at least come in agreement of a significant snowstorm for the mid-atlantic late this week.They still don't have the timing down however.
CPC has nino 3.4 up to 0.6C up from 0.5C last week. That means the CPC could declare El-Nino either on March 5th or on the April update as we have meet the 5 tri monthly's by the CPC.
Quoting PedleyCA:

Waterspout Spotted Off the Redondo Beach Coast


That waterspout photo says its from Wikicommons. So I guess that's not the actual waterspout off the Cali coast.

File Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Quoting PedleyCA:

Waterspout Spotted Off the Redondo Beach Coast
The waterspout reports are valid, but for what it's worth, that image is *not* related to the story. In fact, it's an often-published image taken some years ago in the Mediterranean (Zazzle will even sell you a poster of the event).

Brian Hawkins - HAZARDS AT SEA - A pair of waterspouts...

They showed this photo on the Ch-5 News at 4 A.M.
Beaches are going to be packed this week across FL as it is going to be hot especially across the interior.

TradeWinds beach Resort Clearwater


Orlando some areas could near 90 Wednesday & Thursday
Quoting 589. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Well if you can show me how many Gulf systems we have had this season, then I would be happy to give you praise, Second off you are annoying, but I think the blog already knows that. And finally there is no El Nino as you have been claiming since last year. If the El Nino forecast you are showing does bust, expect to get some major flock not just from me, but from many of the blog members on here. Passing area of High Pressure? I think not that is the A/B High, a synoptic scale, semi-permanent feature in the Atlantic. You have been a blog member for how long? And you don't know that? Would you like me to teach you some more? Or if not I can point you to the doors.


There have been many and yes you are wrong. How else would we have been this wet across C FL. Infact there was just a Gulf low that went across N FL last week. Come on man. Also CPC is likely going to declare El-Nino with in the next 30 days as the tri monthly's have been met. Furthermore have you seen this warm poo gathering with now 5C anomalies. Bottomline El-Nino is not busting as you said. Last it did yes i agree but not this year.

I think I have shown you the doors GT. January & February we saw several low cross FL. One Feb 9th, Feb 25th, and several more that I know happened but have to get those dates.
Quoting 592. StormTrackerScott:



There have been many and yes you are wrong. How else would we have been this wet across C FL. Infact there was just a Gulf low that went across N FL last week. Come on man. Also CPC is likely going to declare El-Nino with in the next 30 days as the tri monthly's have been met. Furthermore have you seen this warm poo gathering with now 5C anomalies. Bottomline El-Nino is not busting as you said. Last it did yes i agree but not this year.


I couldn't resist. Humor is a necessity of life.
I heard it from CWG and many local forecasters in the region that the reason the mid-atlantic could not get any of the snow storms earlier this year was because there was a ridge in place that would send the storms more north.So GT is right.
Quoting 588. Neapolitan:

The waterspout reports are valid, but for what it's worth, that image is *not* related to the story. In fact, it's an often-published image taken some years ago in the Mediterranean (Zazzle will even sell you a poster of the event).

Lol, the Mediterranean has the best waterspouts :-)
But here (using your decoderizer once again) is a dangerous one from Brazil this Sunday. Video is a compilation of records from different angles:



01/03/2015 17h05 - Atualizado em 01/03/2015 17h50
Banhista registra tromba-d’água na orla do Grande Recife; veja vídeo
Quoting 593. LongIslandBeaches:



I couldn't resist. Humor is a necessity of life.


LOL! Thanks you.
Quoting 594. washingtonian115:

I heard it from CWG and many local forecasters in the region that the reason the mid-atlantic could not get any of the snow storms earlier this year was because there was a ridge in place that would send the storms more north.So GT is right.


Many of these systems that have effect you region have come from the Gulf.
interesting...

Quoting 540. Gearsts:

Very slow season expected.

Yesw, I also agree with you, a very slow season for much of the spring, but isn't it usually slow this time of year. Lets wait a few more months until the summer season starts, than we can talk about hurricane season.
Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:



Many of these systems that have effect you region have come from the Gulf.
Yes and then they would CUT up towards the Appalachians and go north of us which is why we would get rain and not snow because the cold air would retreat to the north.
602. VR46L
Quoting 580. PedleyCA:


Waterspout Spotted Off the Redondo Beach Coast
Waterspouts Spotted Off the Coast


Nice Image of a waterspout

Don't worry about it ,you never said it was one of the reported ones ..... I think he checks every image just to say gotcha ....


Snow on the hills here...... horrible winter this year



Quoting 510. washingtonian115:


It is still showing warmth in mid-March although in the 60s now, still two weeks out.
Quoting 577. StormTrackerScott:

2015 in a nutshell. Very large warm pool and continues to increase anomalies now up to 5C



Westerly Wind Burst currently over Nino 4 is moving east.


Yes Scott, I totally agree with your Nino forecast right now, but this is not the summer hurricane season and as the Pacific warms and this is only a temporary wind burst from the west, you will see the temp anomaly disappear and the eastward movement slow down and stop. One more time Scott, I know you put a lot of faith in the models, but please lets wait for the spring barrier to pass and then we can look at what the models show. You know sooner or later you will get the Nino forecast right, but I doubt it's this year, until then keep up with your flooding rain forecast for Florida as I could really use the rain down here in S. Fl.
Quoting 600. NativeSun:

Yesw, I also agree with you, a very slow season for much of the spring, but isn't it usually slow this time of year. Lets wait a few more months until the summer season starts, than we can talk about hurricane season.
Expected
If those 70s were to happen, the trees and plants will be bombing out.
Reagan National has a chance to exceed its seasonal average for a second winter in a row and I have a chance to reach 30 inches for the season.Let's go for it!

I have had trouble upping comments all morning.The page would freeze and crash and then say error.Is anyone else having these problems?
Quoting 608. washingtonian115:

Reagan National has a chance to exceed its seasonal average for a second winter in a row and I have a chance to reach 30 inches for the season.Let's go for it!
The winter that made the comeback!
Quoting 589. GTstormChaserCaleb:


This 'open season' on StormTrackerScott has gone too far, IMHO. If you don't want to see his posts, put the guy on ignore.

There is nothing wrong with disagreement - it can easily be done both courteously and professionally.

How would you like to see a comment that said you are annoying, and 'the blog already knows that', followed up by an offer to 'teach you', and if not, 'to point you to the doors'? Please don't presume to know how all the blog members feel.

This blog is interesting, and I like coming here most days. But the days when I see stuff like this, it's disappointing and disheartening.
Quoting 520. LAbonbon:


Thanks for linking this...learn something new every day. This never occurred to me as being an issue before.
Solar plants putting out 35,000 megawatts , with the average coal plant producing 600 megawatts. And a few here on the blog said that there are no countries making the effort to phase out fossil fuels...Those statements are blatantly false...Even lies..
A little more comparisons of the craziness of this winter. Heavenly Ski Resort in the Sierra Nevada mountains has only received 75 inches of snow this entire winter season (that is 21% of normal). Eastport, Maine received 82.3 inches of snow in just the month of February (and they are a location almost entirely surrounded by the Gulf of Maine).
Quoting 611. hydrus:

Solar plants putting out 35,000 megawatts , with the average coal plant producing 600 megawatts. And a few here on the blog said that there are no countries making the effort to phase out fossil fuels...Those statements are blatantly false...Even lies..

When I saw the 35,000 figure, I did the math...equivalent to 58 typical US coal plants. Had no idea they had that much solar feeding into their grid.
Good Morning Folks. Here is the NWS Headline for the day for Conus:

NWS launches Spring Safety Campaign

Though much of the nation is still under a deep freeze, more typical spring weather is on the horizon, and with it the threat of severe weather, flooding and other hazards. As part of our effort to build a Weather-Ready Nation, NWS is launching its Spring Seasonal Safety Campaign, with information to help you know your risk, take action and be a Force of Nature this spring.

Catchy heading for the day just noting the big picture (deep freeze for much of Conus) with Spring right around the corner.

On the ongoing El Nino watch, will only note that it is not a big deal (whether it comes or not); the Enso cycle (El Nino-Neutral-La Nina) is a well established pattern and the regional-global impacts of each is well documented. The strength (of a La Nina or El Nino) is the main issue in terms of more prevalent impacts (i.e. Conus winter weather patterns or Atlantic hurricane season numbers) but we know what we can generally expect either way; just a matter of the timing of it all relative to trying to forecast the collateral impacts. It's just a normal part of atmospheric science.
Developing electrified squall line is about to cross southwestern Germany and approaching my place near Frankfurt. Probably nothing severe but notable for March 2:





Livestreaming weather cam Mainz.


Estofex published warnings for Central Germany today:
A cold unstable airmass is driven into western and central Europe by a large low over the Norwegian Sea. The cold front lies over Poland to the Alps around 12Z. A sharp shortwave trough followed by drier and colder air passes over the southern UK into the European mainland, where a few hundred J/kg CAPE builds up during the afternoon ahead of the front. The trough likely triggers a wintry squall line moving at 80-100 km/h given the mean flow aloft. This will translate in similar speed wind gusts in convective downdrafts. The convective line may produce widespread gusts over 25 m/s, exceeding the level 2 criterion of 15% chance within 40 km from a point.
Tornadoes are also possible with 10-15 m/s low level shear and a 0-6 km shear over 30 m/s. SREH of almost 200 m²/s² was predicted with this feature in the Keraunos WRF model of 18Z. The low/ mid level flow is weaker along the northern portion of the line which may limit the threat over northern Germany and Poland. The line may survive the night as it is driven by strong dynamics and reach Slovakia and surroundings.


BTW, last night a tornado or downburst caused damage in a tiny village in central Germany. Here a German report with some pics.
Picked up 1.38" overnight per the Baton Rouge airport observations. Looks like some more is on its way over the next three days, but look at the numbers for Arkansas to West Virginia....

Will note this morning, relative to the deep freeze in the upper mid-west this year, that one of the major issues that we will probably be facing this Spring will be river flooding along the Mississippi river and Delta regions as the snow pack starts to melt and flow south. I would make sure that I had flood insurance in place downstream this year.
Boston us currently about 3.7" of snow short of this snow season being its record snowiest snow season.

Link
Quoting 610. LAbonbon:


This 'open season' on StormTrackerScott has gone too far, IMHO. If you don't want to see his posts, put the guy on ignore.

There is nothing wrong with disagreement - it can easily be done both courteously and professionally.

How would you like to see a comment that said you are annoying, and 'the blog already knows that', followed up by an offer to 'teach you', and if not, 'to point you to the doors'? Please don't presume to know how all the blog members feel.

This blog is interesting, and I like coming here most days. But the days when I see stuff like this, it's disappointing and disheartening.
Good post Bonnie...Many pluses for you..:)
Quoting 608. washingtonian115:

Reagan National has a chance to exceed its seasonal average for a second winter in a row and I have a chance to reach 30 inches for the season.Let's go for it!

I have had trouble upping comments all morning.The page would freeze and crash and then say error.Is anyone else having these problems?

Had a problem plussing comments over the weekend...I finally gave up, and went through it at the end of the day. But no crashing/error messages...well, except when the blog was down yesterday...and when I was 'locked out' with that email validation prompt...

Seems like the blog is going through some bugs lately?
623. jpsb
Quoting 614. LAbonbon:


When I saw the 35,000 figure, I did the math...equivalent to 58 typical US coal plants. Had no idea they had that much solar feeding into their grid.


World's Largest Solar Plant Goes Online
The changing of seasons.
Now if only we can get that to move down south a little more....
627. jpsb
According to Wiki

The Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System is a concentrated solar thermal plant in the California Mojave Desert, 64 km (40 miles) southwest of Las Vegas, with a gross capacity of 392 megawatts (MW).[5] It deploys 173,500 heliostats, each with two mirrors, focusing solar energy on boilers located on three centralized solar power towers.[5] Unit 1 of the project was connected to the grid in September 2013 in an initial sync testing.[6] The facility formally opened on February 13, 2014,[1] and it is currently the world's largest solar thermal power station




Also of interest

How a Solar Farm Set Hundreds of Birds Ablaze



I try to keep an eye on the price of solar cells, I keep hoping someday they become cost effective. Lots of sunshine in Texas.
Quoting 622. LAbonbon:


Had a problem plussing comments over the weekend...I finally gave up, and went through it at the end of the day. But no crashing/error messages...well, except when the blog was down yesterday...and when I was 'locked out' with that email validation prompt...

Seems like the blog is going through some bugs lately?
Maybe problems with the server.I checked my computer to make sure everything was fine and no problems on this end.
I think we could really cash in for Thursday's events. This type of scenario is not common where we have a frontal boundary pushing eastward and then a low pressure system developing within the baroclinic zone pushing east after the front has just cleared.
Quoting 574. StormTrackerScott:



First off what he said is not true as we have seen many Gulf system ride across FL and up the East coast leading to massive snow storms across the NE and the image below is from a passing area of High pressure. Here in Orlando we are nearly double our average for the year so far precip wise.
keep posting scott... its a weather blog.. what are people supposed to do come here and just stair at a blank screen..
NAM is probably too far north and over amplified, and we are outside it's reliable range if it even has one.
Speaking of snow-pack and snow coverage across parts of Conus, here are today's charts from a few sources; will let Bloggers in these areas chime in as to whether these charts accurately reflect the reality on the ground:

Quoting 613. tlawson48:

A little more comparisons of the craziness of this winter. Heavenly Ski Resort in the Sierra Nevada mountains has only received 75 inches of snow this entire winter season (that is 21% of normal). Eastport, Maine received 82.3 inches of snow in just the month of February (and they are a location almost entirely surrounded by the Gulf of Maine).

Any idea what Eastport would get in a 'normal' year?
Quoting 616. jpsb:

February was Toronto's coldest month ever


February 1934 was colder at the downtown station, which has a longer period of record than the current airport station.

Link
635. jpsb


oops
Some may not believe it but Spring will soon be here.
Each warm up gets a little warmer.
Quoting 633. LAbonbon:


Any idea what Eastport would get in a 'normal' year?

Never mind, found the info here. 68.9" in an average year (period of record - 9/1/1889 to 8/29/2011).
And finally, here is the WPC Chart from this morning and current short term forecast:




Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EST Mon Mar 02 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2015 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2015

...Heavy snow possible over parts of the Central Rockies...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Southern/Central Plains...

A front along the Eastern Sea Board to the Gulf Coast will move off the
East Coast by Monday afternoon. The system will produce light snow over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes to Northern New England on Monday, ending
later Monday evening over Northern New England. A wave of low pressure
along the boundary over the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley
will produce showers and thunderstorms over Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Central Gulf Coast through Monday evening. Rain will also develop
over the interior parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley
through Monday evening, too.

Meanwhile, a front moving southward out of West-Central Canada will move
southeastward to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern
High Plains then banked up against the Northern Rockies by Tuesday
evening. In addition, an upper-level closed low just off the Southern
Coast of California will open and move northeastward to the Great Lakes by
Tuesday evening. Additional upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest
will move southward and form a new closed upper-level low just off the
northwest coast of Mexico by Tuesday. The energy moving out of California
will aid in producing snow over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies
late Monday night. Light to moderate rain will develop over parts of the
Southwest through Monday evening.

As the front moves south out of Canada, light snow will develop over parts
of the Northern Rockies/High Plains by Monday evening. The upper-level
energy coming out of California will merge with the energy associated with
the boundary moving out of Canada on Tuesday. The complex system will
produce snow over parts of the Central Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes on
Tuesday morning that will move to Northern New England by Tuesday evening.
Rain will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday morning will expand into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
and westward to parts of the Southern High Plains by Tuesday evening. An
area of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Western Ohio
Valley that will move to parts of Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday
evening. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening,
too.

639. jpsb
Quoting 634. DCSwithunderscores:



February 1934 was colder at the downtown station, which has a longer period of record than the current airport station.

Link


Yeah I was just reading the comments and that was mentioned. Thanks for pointing that out.
Map's a little out of date, but it shows how much snow Maine gets in an average year.
If you like snow, it would be a good choice.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EST Mon Mar 02 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2015 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2015

...Heavy snow possible over parts of the Central Rockies...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Southern/Central Plains...

A front along the Eastern Sea Board to the Gulf Coast will move off the
East Coast by Monday afternoon. The system will produce light snow over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes to Northern New England on Monday, ending
later Monday evening over Northern New England. A wave of low pressure
along the boundary over the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley
will produce showers and thunderstorms over Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Central Gulf Coast through Monday evening. Rain will also develop
over the interior parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley
through Monday evening, too.

Meanwhile, a front moving southward out of West-Central Canada will move
southeastward to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern
High Plains then banked up against the Northern Rockies by Tuesday
evening. In addition, an upper-level closed low just off the Southern
Coast of California will open and move northeastward to the Great Lakes by
Tuesday evening. Additional upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest
will move southward and form a new closed upper-level low just off the
northwest coast of Mexico by Tuesday. The energy moving out of California
will aid in producing snow over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies
late Monday night. Light to moderate rain will develop over parts of the
Southwest through Monday evening.

As the front moves south out of Canada, light snow will develop over parts
of the Northern Rockies/High Plains by Monday evening. The upper-level
energy coming out of California will merge with the energy associated with
the boundary moving out of Canada on Tuesday. The complex system will
produce snow over parts of the Central Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes on
Tuesday morning that will move to Northern New England by Tuesday evening.
Rain will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday morning will expand into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
and westward to parts of the Southern High Plains by Tuesday evening. An
area of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Western Ohio
Valley that will move to parts of Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday
evening. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening,
too.


Ziegenfelder
We were suppose to have thunderstorms but now some are saying we could have thunder snow.That can't be properly forecast being so far out from the event but it is possible with the warm moist air advancing north into the cold air.
Quoting 637. LAbonbon:


Never mind, found the info here. 68.9" in an average year (period of record - 9/1/1889 to 8/29/2011).


It will most likely be the heaviest monthly snowfall recorded for anywhere in the State of Maine for any reporting station for any month on record. The only other areas that would receive more snow in a month would be way up in the mountains where there are no reporting stations. If will definitely be the most for any coastal location.

The other part of the story is that they received 99 inches of snow between January 27th and February 16th. The seasonal total is up around 140 inches so far, with almost all of that falling since the last week of January.
After a mild December and chilly, but tranquil January, February 2015 was almost like an entire winter wrapped up into just one month.

The average temperature of 30.3F at Washington, D.C. Reagan National Airport was the coldest monthly average temperature of any month of the 2000s (including all Januarys). You have to go all the way back to January 1994 (just over twenty years ago) to find a colder month, when the average temperature was 28.8F.

Link
Spring Break has officially started in S.W. Florida.
Link
12z GFS is loaded with QPF for Thursday. This could end up being our biggest storm yet.
7 Day for Fort Myers
Lows at night in the mid 60s, that's pretty warm for this time of year.
Quoting 642. washingtonian115:

We were suppose to have thunderstorms but now some are saying we could have thunder snow.That can't be properly forecast being so far out from the event but it is possible with the warm moist air advancing north into the cold air.
Here are the highlights from an AOL article on the weather over the next few days; pretty good summary:


Yet another winter storm will take aim at the Northeast and Midwest this week with widespread ice and flooding concerns.

With the storm taking a more northern track, its swath of disruptive snowwill stretch from Wyoming to northern Michigan to northern Maine Monday night through Wednesday.

The door will open for warmer air to pour in south of the snowstorm, causing any snow at the storm's onset to change over to an icy mix, then rain across the rest of the Midwest and Northeast.

This ice to rain event will race in a west-to-east fashion from the Midwest to the Northeast Monday night through Tuesday night.

The rain will be heavy enough and/or will combine with melting snow to trigger flooding in the lower Midwest states (including the Ohio Valley), the spine of the Appalachians, upper mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

Low-lying areas and places where snow mounds are covering storm drains will be most susceptible to flooding. Ice jams may also form on area rivers, leading to flooding on nearby property.

At first, the rain will add weight to the snow on roofs in southern New England [including the Boston area]," stated AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.

"But as temperatures rise into the 40s, melting will occur and that will lead to some street flooding."

The milder and more spring-like weather headed to the Midwest and Northeast will only be brief. Fresh arctic air will quickly return Wednesday through Thursday.

While slowing down the snow melt and easing the flood threat, the arctic blast will arrive fast for any wet or slushy areas to freeze and turn icy.

The arrival of the colder air will also coincide with when a new batch of rain will spread from the southern Plains to the East Coast. As the cold air slams into the rain, a changeover to treacherous ice or snow will occur in a large swath from Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley to the mid-Atlantic and potentially a part of the Northeast.




Quoting Climate175:


Where's the lightning flash? You've got to get that one.
Anomalous that this winter the coast has kept up with or possibly surpassed the totals in the mountains. Testimony to the storm track.

Sunday River is boasting over 12' of snow on the season. The coast "normally" would experience much less. Not this year.

Quoting 643. tlawson48:



It will most likely be the heaviest monthly snowfall recorded for anywhere in the State of Maine for any reporting station for any month on record. The only other areas that would receive more snow in a month would be way up in the mountains where there are no reporting stations. If will definitely be the most for any coastal location.

The other part of the story is that they received 99 inches of snow between January 27th and February 16th. The seasonal total is up around 140 inches so far, with almost all of that falling since the last week of January.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Wow! Snowing for 18 hours!
Link
Quoting 647. Drakoen:

12z GFS is loaded with QPF for Thursday. This could end up being our biggest storm yet.
Greetings Drak...Explain further if you have time...Folks here could do without more water and ice.