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Memorable Snowfall Hits Deep South, Skirts Big Cities

By: Bob Henson 6:48 PM GMT on February 26, 2015

A quick-moving snowstorm zipped from northeast Texas to southern Virginia in little more than 24 hours, leaving some parts of the Deep South with more snow than they’ve seen in decades. Rather than carving a deep trough in the eastern U.S., the upper-level energy that generated the snow tracked along the base of a broad pre-existing trough. This channeling of energy helped lead to a storm that had a vast extent from southwest to northeast but a narrow north-south gradient from substantial snow to little or no accumulation. The transition zone happened to fall across or near some of the largest cities of the South, which led to tough forecast challenges, just as we saw in the nor’easter last month that left New York City on its west edge.

Here are some of the broad variations in snowfall reported in and near metro areas across the South from the Wednesday/Thursday storm.

Little Rock, AR: 0 - 2”
Memphis, TN: 0 - 2”
Birmingham, AL: 0.5 - 4.0”
Atlanta, GA: 0 - 1”, with several inches across far northern suburbs
Charlotte, NC: 1 - 3”
Raleigh-Durham, NC: 3 - 5”
Norfolk, VA: 3 - 8”

Numerous cancellations and closures occurred across the Atlanta area on Wednesday night into Thursday, yet the storm produced less than an inch across the city, with larger amounts limited to the far north end of the metro area. When you zoom out and look at the big picture for northern Georgia (see Figure 1), the storm was very well forecast--but variations on the order of 15 miles, which are well within the error of current modeling systems, can make or break the outcome when they happen to fall across a city as populous as Atlanta. According to the University of Georgia’s Marshall Shepherd, this was a “great forecast, given where our capability currently lies . . . but if you expected something and didn’t get it, you may be upset.” Shepherd recently covered the ins and outs of snow prediction in the South in his Weather Underground blog.

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Figure 1. A comparison of snow amounts predicted by the NWS/Atlanta office on Wednesday morning, Feb. 25 (left) and preliminary amounts as of Thursday morning (right). Although the forecast as a whole was quite accurate, the south edge of the heavier snow ended up just north of Atlanta instead of on top of the city. Image credit: NWS/Peachtree City, GA, courtesy Marshall Shepherd, University of Georgia.



Figure 2 (right). A youngster in Oxford, MS, savors a rare snowfall of significance. Image credit: wunderphotographer OxfordWeatherGeek.



The most impressive amounts for location and time of year occurred across central and northern Alabama and Mississippi. Tupelo, MS, saw 7.3”, its second-largest one-day snowfall on record (topped only by 8.0” on January 24, 1940). Huntsville, AL, also saw its second-snowiest day on record, with 8.1”; on Dec. 31, 1963, the city reported 15.7”. The region between Birmingham and Huntsville saw amounts exceeding 10” in spots, the heaviest observed there since the Superstorm of March 12-14, 1993. Weather Underground historian Christopher Burt discussed the greatest snows in the history of the South in this 2011 blog post.


A February to remember (or forget!)
Next week we’ll take a close look at national and regional statistics for February as a whole, which are bound to be impressive. In the meantime, here are a couple of samplers from the temperature realm:

--Syracuse, NY, is wrapping up its first month in 103 years of recordkeeping without a single measurement above freezing. The city touched 32°F only on February 4, with the next-warmest reading to date a mere 28°F. To make matters worse, Syracuse has dipped below 0°F a total of 21 days this winter, beating the record of 19 days set in 1947–48.

--Boston, MA, averaged 18.8°F for the period Feb. 1 - 25. That’s considerably lower than the February average so far in Aspen, CO (31.0°F), Anchorage, AK (24.9°F), and Moscow, Russia (26.1°F). All three of those cities are running well above their normal February temperatures, whereas Boston is usually about 10°F warmer than those three cities in February.

--In Salt Lake City, UT, the average daily high for Feb. 1 - 25 was 55.2°F. That’s the city’s long-term average high on the spring solstice in late March.



This week’s WunderPoster: Snow rollers
This week’s entry in our WunderPoster series (Figure 3, right) features snow rollers, one of the quirkiest phenomena observed in snow-prone regions. Sometimes up to two feet in diameter, these features are formed when a thin layer of wet snow atop ice or powdery snow gets disrupted by a windblown chunk of snow that pulls up some of the underlying snow in a cinnamon-roll-on-its-side fashion. All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. This fleet of snow rollers was captured on January 27, 2014, at Green Camp, Ohio. Image credit: wunderphotographer Gordanian.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Bob. Now from snow this week to severe weather next week. Big changes in the airmass across the mid south coming to that of what could feature severe weather outbreaks.
temps were mild here in el paso....but I10 was littered with chunks of ice as it fell from the undercarriages of the semi's that had traveled through central texas on their way west
Thanks Bob,
I think this fits well here:

Thanks for the update Bob
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:

I think this fits well here:


well
we will see about that
10 days from now
Thank you Bob Henson.

It's not snow or cold warnings out here in Soo Cal but RAIN in the forecast is a HUGE item out here. We had a nice storm last weekend with 1" in my neck of the woods. Another 2 storms are forecast for this weekend and mid week next. Hope they come to fruition! This is the latest from National Weather Service.


Area Forecast Discussion Link to RSS feed
%u2022 Go Back %u2022 Print Friendly %u2022 Version: Latest Older %u2022 Font: A A A A %u2022
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FXUS66 KSGX 261754
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
954 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD STORM DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WITH MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
VALLEYS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE 26/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 26/0600 UTC GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID-TERM...AND SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN THE LONG
TERM.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWERING HEIGHTS FROM
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
TONIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO LOWER AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AND DEEPEN...ARRIVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA BY LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER SW CA...WITH GREATEST
CHANCES...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND COLDEST WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
DESERTS.....0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST.......0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES
VALLEYS.....0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...1.50 TO 2.75 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
4000 TO 5000 FT...1 TO 4 INCHES
5000 TO 6000 FT...4 TO 10 INCHES
6000 TO 7000 FT...6 TO 12 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FT.....10 TO 16 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES

SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 7000 FT FRIDAY EVENING...DROP TO
AROUND 5500 FT SATURDAY MORNING...AND BOTTOM OUT AT NEAR 4000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING. H500 TEMPS OF -26 DEG C WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD GENERATE
LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHERE THEY DEVELOP. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SYSTEM...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
SATURDAY OF 55 TO 65 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM AND CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS LOW...AROUND 4000 FT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL.
MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR THURSDAY AS THE ECMWF DIGS A DRY TROUGH
ALONG SW CA...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

10. bwi
We got roughly 2" in my part of the DC area. Temps went above freezing as soon as the snow stopped, and still holding at 37 at DCA now, with moderate N winds. So this one turned out to be pretty low impact.
Thanks for the careful new post, Mr. Henson! To say it briefly:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAIN HIGHLY UNCLEAR
WITH LARGE SPREAD EVIDENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS
PERIOD. ON THE LARGER SCALE...BLOCKING WITHIN THE MID/UPPER FLOW
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT AT LATITUDES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST...WHILE SPLIT BELTS OF DOWNSTREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN
BROADLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO...AND THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERN
CANADIAN VORTEX.

IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD REINFORCE COLD SURFACE RIDGING TO THE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AS A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE RETURN DOES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EMERGES FROM TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES...BEFORE CONTINUING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL
COULD BECOME MAXIMIZED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH AT LEAST THIS
IMPULSE...STILL APPEARS LOW...AND THE EXTENT OF EVEN WEAK WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCLEAR.

AT THIS TIME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
STILL APPEAR BELOW 15 PERCENT.
..WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
Quoting 11. barbamz:

Thanks for the careful new post, Mr. Henson! To say it briefly:







It's only 2/3 true. It's above average west of the rockies thanks to the RRR.
Quoting 11. barbamz:
Thanks for the careful new post, Mr. Henson! To say it briefly:







I thought it was interesting when the Mayor of Atlanta announced at the Press Conference that TWC Forecast is for a 100% chance of snow for Atlanta.



Quoting 14. TimTheWxMan:

It's only 2/3 true. It's above average west of the rockies thanks to the RRR.

Ah, yesss, the accuracy of this special model seems to be improvable :-)
Quoting 830. Naga5000:



I choose Thor, he promised to rid the world of Ice Giants...I don't see any Ice Giants around. Checkmate.


Maybe Thor is all American god, lightning has kind of an American-esque feel to it, and plus, maybe he's behind the CO2 emissions explosion, the purpose all along of Global Warming was the influence of Thor to get rid of the ice giants, dad-gum scientists need to quit their lyin'.
slurpee waves....mmmmmm good

Quoting 19. ricderr:

slurpee waves....mmmmmm good


coastal slush I've seen it before long time ago another place
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:

I think this fits well here:




If we have a typical Mid Atlantic Spring you are about to learn about backdoor cold fronts, cold air damming and Marine Layers. All of these are worse when there is Midwest or Ohio Valley 500mb ridging and the pattern looks like it should be warm.
Death toll is still rising ...
Avalanches kill more than 150 people in Afghanistan
BBC weather video, 26 February 2015 Last updated at 16:55
Heavy snowfall has triggered avalanches claiming the lives of at least 150 people. With fears of an imminent humanitarian disaster, troops have been deployed to help the rescue efforts.
BBC Weather's Helen Willets reports on BBC World.

coastal slush I've seen it before long time ago another place


i've heard about it...first time i've even seen a pic of it......
Quoting 19. ricderr:

slurpee waves....mmmmmm good





Ocean Waves as a slurpee flavor... it'll be pretty salty.
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:

I think this fits well here:





At least we know where Scott gets his El Niño predictions from. :O)
Quoting 19. ricderr:

slurpee waves....mmmmmm good



A portion of Wrightsville Beach froze here a few days ago.

It is supposed to be 87 in south Florida today.
At least we know where Scott gets his El Niño predictions from. :O)


ta da da boom
Quoting 25. TimTheWxMan:




At least we know where Scott gets his El Niño predictions from. :O)


Ahem, El Nino forecasts are made by the "El Nino Seahorse"



Not the magic conch.

Normal is 69/45(KRAL), so far 67.3 (12:33PST), Forecast 70...
Ahem, El Nino forecasts are made by the "El Nino Seahorse"

oh no no no........he just tunes into the weather channel


Normal is 69/45(KRAL), so far 67.3 (12:33PST), Forecast 70...


yea baby...but i see rain in the future
you guys are gonna hate me......i just found a new toy...a site that links a few of the different enso models

from the japanese....

El Niño Outlook
( February 2015 - August 2015 )

Last Updated: 10 February 2015
( Next update will be on 10 March 2015 )


El Niño conditions are decaying in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will transition to ENSO neutral conditions until the Northern Hemisphere spring. Thereafter, there are equal chances for continuation of ENSO neutral conditions or redevelopment of El Niño conditions.
...Roadways and walkways will be icy in spots tonight and early
Friday morning...

Patchy black ice will develop late tonight. Bridges will be most
susceptible to icing.

Freezing fog is expected to develop late tonight as temperatures
drop below freezing...and then continue into early Friday
morning. This fog will coat exposed surfaces with a very fine
layer of ice. The fog will also reduce the visibility to 2 miles
or less and in some locations...the fog may restrict the
visibility to near one-quarter mile for a time.

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing by around 9 am
Friday.

Motorists and pedestrians should use extreme care as what may
seem just wet will actually be frozen late tonight and early
Friday morning
Quoting 34. ricderr:

from the japanese....

El Niño Outlook
( February 2015 - August 2015 )

Last Updated: 10 February 2015
( Next update will be on 10 March 2015 )


El Niño conditions are decaying in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will transition to ENSO neutral conditions until the Northern Hemisphere spring. Thereafter, there are equal chances for continuation of ENSO neutral conditions or redevelopment of El Niño conditions.



Shhh... don't let Scott see that.
compare date 2014/2015


looks neutral



Quoting 32. ricderr:

Normal is 69/45(KRAL), so far 67.3 (12:33PST), Forecast 70...


yea baby...but i see rain in the future


And this storm is coming right over us for a change, should be a good result.
Since 7/1/2014 is 6.19"
Here's a graphic with some of the records from Huntsville AL. Considering the amount of snow, the state got lucky. There was about 1" to 2" in Birmingham and about the same in Tuscaloosa. All the areas where it was cold enough for snow got snow and no ice, which has been a big contributor to the lack of major problems. Huntsville is the only relatively large metropolitan area that had very heavy snowfall. Huntsville gets snow every year and is much more used to dealing with it than places like Birmingham or Tuscaloosa. Almost everywhere that had snow is now at least a degree or two above freezing, which is helping to melt the snow on the roads. God forbid we ever get eight inches of snow in Montgomery or Mobile. It would be a major disaster.



This graph comes for the SPC. It shows the amount of days elapsed with no severe weather watches (excluding winter storm watches). The 2015 drought ended with the tornado watch in Florida yesterday, which produced no tornadoes. It was the sixth longest watch-free stretch. The missing years had no 30 day period without watches, and that's the most interesting part of the graph. The period from 1975 to 1989 was very quiet, with only 4 years with no 30 day warning periods, and never longer than a year gap. Things start to change in 1990. There were seven years in the 90's that never went 30 days without a watch. The 00's had six years with no 30 day stretch. For the teens, so far, we've had 4 years. Since 1995, we've also had a big drop in the number of warning-free days over 40. From 1975 until 1989, every watch-free stretch but one had a gap of at least 40 days. From 1995 until 2015, we've only had two years with a plus 40 gap, with this year's gap of 51 days being the longest since the 54 day period of 1986. I haven't plotted these numbers against hurricane frequency yet but it appears there's a correlation between lack of severe weather in the US and lack of Atlantic hurricanes. There might be some lead or lag time but the correlation is pretty striking. Of course, correlation doesn't prove causation, but it may be that the state of ENSO affects more than just hurricanes.

Quoting ricderr:
from the japanese....

El Nio Outlook
( February 2015 - August 2015 )

Last Updated: 10 February 2015
( Next update will be on 10 March 2015 )


El Nio conditions are decaying in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Nio conditions will transition to ENSO neutral conditions until the Northern Hemisphere spring. Thereafter, there are equal chances for continuation of ENSO neutral conditions or redevelopment of El Nio conditions.
Good heavens. I'm so sick of El Nothingo.
41. DDR
Good evening
Definitly no el nino around,heavy rain showers an thunder storms tonight for Trinidad,lets see if we can get our 3 inch monthly average in one shot.
This snowstorm forecast was accurate????? It certainly was not accurate. My area was forecast to get between 4-6 inches of snow and all we got was a wet miserable cold rain with a few ice pellets and a few snowflakes at random times in the rain. To say i was bitterly disappointed is a gross understatement. I live about 45 miles southwest of Atlanta,GA and the forecast for snow was 100% and i thought for sure we would get a nice snow out of this, but no, the NWS bungled the forecast big time for us. This missed snowstorm rivaled the other big miss for us back in Feb. 1973 when record snows hit the central part of GA with snow totals of up to 19 inches at Thomaston,GA which is only about 50 miles to the south of us.
The new winter report from AER....cold stays around.....Link
Quoting Naga5000:


Ahem, El Nino forecasts are made by the "El Nino Seahorse"



Not the magic conch.
However, the seahorse may need a new name tag soon. Somehow "Hello. My name is Neutral" just doesn't have the same impact. However, the English "neutral" can be translated to the Spanish "nación". This happens to be the feminine gender, so her name could be "La Nación", which I think sounds better than just "Neutral", and has the possibility of becoming yet another new weather term. What do you think? I'll list you as a co-author of my paper about it if you're quick. :-)
Quoting ricderr:
from the japanese....

El Niño Outlook
( February 2015 - August 2015 )

Last Updated: 10 February 2015
( Next update will be on 10 March 2015 )


El Niño conditions are decaying in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will transition to ENSO neutral conditions until the Northern Hemisphere spring. Thereafter, there are equal chances for continuation of ENSO neutral conditions or redevelopment of El Niño conditions.


Ugh. Based on STS el nino forecast this morning, I went and bought my el nino hat, tee shirt and boxers and ordered on-line el nino head covers for my Ping driver and 3-wood. Did I rush out too quickly?
Quoting 10. bwi:

We got roughly 2" in my part of the DC area. Temps went above freezing as soon as the snow stopped, and still holding at 37 at DCA now, with moderate N winds. So this one turned out to be pretty low impact.


LOL DCA.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Here's a graphic with some of the records from Huntsville AL. Considering the amount of snow, the state got lucky. There was about 1" to 2" in Birmingham and about the same in Tuscaloosa. All the areas where it was cold enough for snow got snow and no ice, which has been a big contributor to the lack of major problems. Huntsville is the only relatively large metropolitan area that had very heavy snowfall. Huntsville gets snow every year and is much more used to dealing with it than places like Birmingham or Tuscaloosa. Almost everywhere that had snow is now at least a degree or two above freezing, which is helping to melt the snow on the roads. God forbid we ever get eight inches of snow in Montgomery or Mobile. It would be a major disaster.



This graph comes for the SPC. It shows the amount of days elapsed with no severe weather watches (excluding winter storm watches). The 2015 drought ended with the tornado watch in Florida yesterday, which produced no tornadoes. It was the sixth longest watch-free stretch. The missing years had no 30 day period without watches, and that's the most interesting part of the graph. The period from 1975 to 1989 was very quiet, with only 4 years with no 30 day warning periods, and never longer than a year gap. Things start to change in 1990. There were seven years in the 90's that never went 30 days without a watch. The 00's had six years with no 30 day stretch. For the teens, so far, we've had 4 years. Since 1995, we've also had a big drop in the number of warning-free days over 40. From 1975 until 1989, every watch-free stretch but one had a gap of at least 40 days. From 1995 until 2015, we've only had two years with a plus 40 gap, with this year's gap of 51 days being the longest since the 54 day period of 1986. I haven't plotted these numbers against hurricane frequency yet but it appears there's a correlation between lack of severe weather in the US and lack of Atlantic hurricanes. There might be some lead or lag time but the correlation is pretty striking. Of course, correlation doesn't prove causation, but it may be that the state of ENSO affects more than just hurricanes.





That's what i was wondering, sar. Does the ENSO affect tornado activity? However, it's way more complex than that.
Quoting 42. Oldmanwinter:


got your bags packed yet oldmanwinter almost time for you to ship out


seen the screen name just had to do it sorry lol

Quoting Oldmanwinter:
This snowstorm forecast was accurate????? It certainly was not accurate. My area was forecast to get between 4-6 inches of snow and all we got was a wet miserable cold rain with a few ice pellets and a few snowflakes at random times in the rain. To say i was bitterly disappointed is a gross understatement. I live about 45 miles southwest of Atlanta,GA and the forecast for snow was 100% and i thought for sure we would get a nice snow out of this, but no, the NWS bungled the forecast big time for us. This missed snowstorm rivaled the other big miss for us back in Feb. 1973 when record snows hit the central part of GA with snow totals of up to 19 inches at Thomaston,GA which is only about 50 miles to the south of us.
I feel your pain. I wouldn't call it bungled, but there were some misses. The NWS, in their forecast discussions, discussed (a lot) that there was a high probability of part of the forecast busting, and the highest risk of that was on the south edge of the snow bands. That's exactly what happened in Alabama as well, with measurable snow 25 miles or so north from all rain. If you've read some of my previous posts you'll know that I do not hold a blind loyalty to anything, including the NWS. This was the toughest forecast in many years, and we just don't have the skill to resolve mesoscale details at levels down to less than 50 miles. They needed to make a forecast of the snow line somewhere and they did so with the best tools and minds they have. I don't think the Atlanta office did a good job of communicating the uncertainty to the public about where it would snow, and that's something they need to work on. However, the NWS will tend to bust on the low side of forecasts like this. They feel that it's better from a public safety standpoint to forecast some snow than none at all and then bust on that. It's a pretty reasonable policy, even if it gets some of us in an uproar on occasion. :-)
Quoting 44. sar2401:

However, the seahorse may need a new name tag soon. Somehow "Hello. My name is Neutral" just doesn't have the same impact. However, the English "neutral" can be translated to the Spanish "nación". This happens to be the feminine gender, so her name could be "La Nación", which I think sounds better than just "Neutral", and has the possibility of becoming yet another new weather term. What do you think? I'll list you as a co-author of my paper about it if you're quick. :-)



More like La Nada.
Quoting 44. sar2401:

However, the seahorse may need a new name tag soon. Somehow "Hello. My name is Neutral" just doesn't have the same impact. However, the English "neutral" can be translated to the Spanish "nación". This happens to be the feminine gender, so her name could be "La Nación", which I think sounds better than just "Neutral", and has the possibility of becoming yet another new weather term. What do you think? I'll list you as a co-author of my paper about it if you're quick. :-)


I'm all for it, but you're writing the Lit Review. :)
Quoting 42. Oldmanwinter:

This snowstorm forecast was accurate????? It certainly was not accurate. My area was forecast to get between 4-6 inches of snow and all we got was a wet miserable cold rain with a few ice pellets and a few snowflakes at random times in the rain. To say i was bitterly disappointed is a gross understatement. I live about 45 miles southwest of Atlanta,GA and the forecast for snow was 100% and i thought for sure we would get a nice snow out of this, but no, the NWS bungled the forecast big time for us. This missed snowstorm rivaled the other big miss for us back in Feb. 1973 when record snows hit the central part of GA with snow totals of up to 19 inches at Thomaston,GA which is only about 50 miles to the south of us.



Git atta heah! No moah old man wintah in bahston!
Nino 3.4 nearing .9C


Nino 4 nearing 1.4C
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



That's what i was wondering, sar. Does the ENSO affect tornado activity? However, it's way more complex than that.
I'm sure it does. I have no idea about the details of how it does however. I saw that graph at the SPC site and thought the lack of quiet severe weather periods before 1995 was pretty clearly shown. It also looks like the decrease in those 30 or more day breaks from watches decreased pretty rapidly after 1990 and has stayed low until 2014, when it looks like the quiet periods started to increase. It will take another couple of years to see if that continues, but I thought it was a quick look kind of interesting.
Very large sub surface warm pool beginning to make its presence felt at the surface due to a westerly wind burst.

If super el nino doesn't come by this fall we'll still be talking about it net year on the blog....
Quoting 49. sar2401:

I feel your pain. I wouldn't call it bungled, but there were some misses. The NWS, in their forecast discussions, discussed (a lot) that there was a high probability of part of the forecast busting, and the highest risk of that was on the south edge of the snow bands. That's exactly what happened in Alabama as well, with measurable snow 25 miles or so north from all rain. If you've read some of my previous posts you'll know that I do not hold a blind loyalty to anything, including the NWS. This was the toughest forecast in many years, and we just don't have the skill to resolve mesoscale details at levels down to less than 50 miles. They needed to make a forecast of the snow line somewhere and they did so with the best tools and minds they have. I don't think the Atlanta office did a good job of communicating the uncertainty to the public about where it would snow, and that's something they need to work on. However, the NWS will tend to bust on the low side of forecasts like this. They feel that it's better from a public safety standpoint to forecast some snow than none at all and then bust on that. It's a pretty reasonable policy, even if it gets some of us in an uproar on occasion. :-)


Peachtree City NWS (the office that covers Atlanta) noted medium probability in their graphics (one graphic had *medium probability* in the lower right corner) and noted that the most likely place to not see snow was the city and the southern edge of the forecast range.

Agreed on the part of forecasting snow and not seeing it is far better than the opposite scenario.
Started the day in S C IL w/ an 1" of dry fluffy, had some sun, now back cloudy w/ some snow falling again as last of the clouds starts to clear out before the drop tonight. Has been holding around 18-19 most the day, as winds now mostly N 8-15 w/ 25 gust after starting NW this a.m. Pressure on the rise, about 30.3" now. Calling for -2 to -3 tonight, barely into double digits tomorrow.

Keeping an eye on the end of the extended forecast as have changed to freezing rain Mon. night/Tues. from snow/rain. Still have snow Sat/Sun and keep lowering temps enough appears mix is out for then. Hopefully they'll do that for Tues eventually, don't need ice on top of this snow!
Quoting 41. DDR:

Good evening
Definitly no el nino around,heavy rain showers an thunder storms tonight for Trinidad,lets see if we can get our 3 inch monthly average in one shot.

Hmmm...
Lucky if we get 1/2'' down here.
Just started drizzling, which is good, but the heavy stuff may stay away, to the south-east.

Hope I'm wrong.
Hope you are right.

:):))
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

If super el nino doesn't come by this fall we'll still be talking about it net year on the blog....
Oh yes same goes for hurricane strike in FL. I mean 10 years is a long time. I think we are overdue.
Quoting 60. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh yes same goes for hurricane strike in FL. I mean 10 years is a long time. I think we are overdue.
florida is overdue, going on 10 years is impresive
Quoting Naga5000:


I'm all for it, but you're writing the Lit Review. :)
I could do that. I'm good at writing impenetrable walls of text. I can wear out the best reviewer. I think our La Nación might have some real possibilities though. She can stay a seahorse, since I don't think boy seahorses look a whole different than the girl variety. We'd need to dress her up to look more feminine. I'm not any good at that, and my fiance already thinks this site wastes enough of my time to dare ask her about dressing up a seahorse. Maybe Bonnie, txjac, or one of other female members can offer suggestions. With you being the solar expert, we can work in something about the effects of solar rays and tanning in girl seahorses in bikinis. We might even be able to get a little cheesecake out of if we do it right. With my impenetrable text and a really cute girl seahorse in a bikini, I don't see how could lose on this one.
Nothing makes me laugh more than when you people are in a good mood. El Nino seahorse. lol

La Nada!! haha


But boy, when you are in a fighting mood, you can really be a bunch of twits!


Quoting TimTheWxMan:



More like La Nada.
LOL. I like that one too, but I don't think that sounds like a really cute girl seahorse in a bikini. :-)
Quoting Grothar:
Nothing makes me laugh more than when you people are in a good mood. El Nino seahorse. lol

La Nada!! haha


But boy, when you are in a fighting mood, you can really be a bunch of twits!


It's just a ying and yang thing, Gro. :-)
Quoting Astrometeor:


Peachtree City NWS (the office that covers Atlanta) noted medium probability in their graphics (one graphic had *medium probability* in the lower right corner) and noted that the most likely place to not see snow was the city and the southern edge of the forecast range.

Agreed on the part of forecasting snow and not seeing it is far better than the opposite scenario.
I know, but I think it should have been more like low probability and in a lot bigger letters. The public is not good about translating things like medium in small letters.
Quoting 65. sar2401:

It's just a ying and yang thing, Gro. :-)

Shouldn't that be ''a ying and yang thang'' ?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very large sub surface warm pool beginning to make its presence felt at the surface due to a westerly wind burst.



Can you share the data showing the westerly wind burst that is driving the sub-surface warm poolnof water?
Quoting pottery:

Shouldn't that be ''a ying and yang thang'' ?
Only if it was still 1975 and we were in bell bottoms, Pott. :-)
Quoting 67. pottery:


Shouldn't that be ''a ying and yang thang'' ?


Acually it is Yin and Yang. :)
Quoting 63. Grothar:

Nothing makes me laugh more than when you people are in a good mood. El Nino seahorse. lol

La Nada!! haha


But boy, when you are in a fighting mood, you can really be a bunch of twits!






That's the WU blog for ya.
Is it moving at all?
Quoting 62. sar2401:

I could do that. I'm good at writing impenetrable walls of text. I can wear out the best reviewer. I think our La Nación might have some real possibilities though. She can stay a seahorse, since I don't think boy seahorses look a whole different than the girl variety. We'd need to dress her up to look more feminine. I'm not any good at that, and my fiance already thinks this site wastes enough of my time to dare ask her about dressing up a seahorse. Maybe Bonnie, txjac, or one of other female members can offer suggestions. With you being the solar expert, we can work in something about the effects of solar rays and tanning in girl seahorses in bikinis. We might even be able to get a little cheesecake out of if we do it right. With my impenetrable text and a really cute girl seahorse in a bikini, I don't see how could lose on this one.


You know, this is off topic, but you bring up a good point. I am the solar expert now, so when do I get my user name changed to "Naga5000 (Solar Expert)"? I don't need any special privileges, it's just I wouldn't want to be mistaken for just any old regular poster now.

Back to the serious business, I think you have the idea pretty hashed out, but tell me, what do you think of a La Nina Narwhal?

Quoting 62. sar2401:

I could do that. I'm good at writing impenetrable walls of text. I can wear out the best reviewer. I think our La Nación might have some real possibilities though. She can stay a seahorse, since I don't think boy seahorses look a whole different than the girl variety. We'd need to dress her up to look more feminine. I'm not any good at that, and my fiance already thinks this site wastes enough of my time to dare ask her about dressing up a seahorse. Maybe Bonnie, txjac, or one of other female members can offer suggestions. With you being the solar expert, we can work in something about the effects of solar rays and tanning in girl seahorses in bikinis. We might even be able to get a little cheesecake out of if we do it right. With my impenetrable text and a really cute girl seahorse in a bikini, I don't see how could lose on this one.

Here you go. For less than the price of a Happy Meal, you can play Seahorse Dress Up :)

76. vis0
Not weather related but if one can do things to learn how healthy they are it can prolong your life to
a) see more weather
b) experience more weather
c) sadly see CO2 reach 500prts
d) wish Grothar another happy 17 billion yrs

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/health/2015/02/ 26/how-long-will-you-live--try-the-sitting-rising- test/24064705/



el nino coming soon starting to go up again!
This is for Scott;
How many years have you've been following the El Niño patterns.
While looking at the article & photos ncstorm linked too, saw this on the same site:

Woman Buried By Snow In Cambridge Shares Terrifying Story
img src="


the next storm.. more snow for the northeast!
Quoting 62. sar2401:

I could do that. I'm good at writing impenetrable walls of text. I can wear out the best reviewer. I think our La Nación might have some real possibilities though. She can stay a seahorse, since I don't think boy seahorses look a whole different than the girl variety. We'd need to dress her up to look more feminine. I'm not any good at that, and my fiance already thinks this site wastes enough of my time to dare ask her about dressing up a seahorse. Maybe Bonnie, txjac, or one of other female members can offer suggestions. With you being the solar expert, we can work in something about the effects of solar rays and tanning in girl seahorses in bikinis. We might even be able to get a little cheesecake out of if we do it right. With my impenetrable text and a really cute girl seahorse in a bikini, I don't see how could lose on this one.

Female sea horses lay their eggs in a pouch on the male's abdomen, where they incubate until hatching.
83. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Hmmm...
Lucky if we get 1/2'' down here.
Just started drizzling, which is good, but the heavy stuff may stay away, to the south-east.

Hope I'm wrong.
Hope you are right.

:):))


Hey pottery
Well im up about a half inch already and still pouring.
I'm also sure you've gotten,although the radar is down,the satellite presentation looks like that of June in our area
Quoting 67. pottery:


Shouldn't that be ''a ying and yang thang'' ?


That sentence is not grammatically correct, lots of missing izzles.
Quoting 82. ACSeattle:


Female sea horses lay their eggs in a pouch on the male's abdomen, where they incubate until hatching.



Wow. And I got mad when Mrs. Grothar just asked me to get more pampers.
Reagan National picked up 2.2 inches.I picked up 2.9 so I now have 24.5 for the season.Reagan is now at 13.4 inches for the winter with Just 1.7 left and it'll be at it's seasonal average.I don't see another snow event on the horizon and I doubt we'll repeat March 2014.
Quoting 27. Grothar:

It is supposed to be 87 in south Florida today.


I got a bridge................... How are you young man? Hope all is well!
Quoting 85. Grothar:



Wow. And I got mad when Mrs. Grothar just asked me to get more pampers.


Were those pampers with the silky inner lining? I just love those!
Quoting 76. vis0:

Not weather related but if one can do things to learn how healthy they are it can prolong your life to
a) see more weather
b) experience more weather
c) sadly see CO2 reach 500prts
d) wish Grothar another happy 17 billion yrs

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/health/2015/02/ 26/how-long-will-you-live--try-the-sitting-rising- test/24064705/

Yep... Gro was around before the Dead Sea was even sick.
Quoting 75. LAbonbon:


Here you go. For less than the price of a Happy Meal, you can play Seahorse Dress Up :)




I love playing dress up!
91. vis0

Quoting 44. sar2401:

However, the seahorse may need a new name tag soon. Somehow "Hello. My name is Neutral" just doesn't have the same impact. However, the English "neutral" can be translated to the Spanish "nación". This happens to be the feminine gender, so her name could be "La Nación", which I think sounds better than just "Neutral", and has the possibility of becoming yet another new weather term. What do you think? I'll list you as a co-author of my paper about it if you're quick. :-)
Nacion???
i thought it was neutral (nu-trahl)
i prefer "DingoDiDangoNowhere" 
(DingoDeDango was a quasi-popular underground mix i made where as i sung dingodidango and women shimmied lightly  but very quickly to the . DingoDiDdango (at times spelled dingodedango). NOT MINE,  its from my fathers FANTASTIC rymths he has. Father has over 200 customized rhymes/ type of triple entendre in Puerto Rican music  (~120 of my fathers are very adult oriented)  but never told anyone (not even me till 2010) except the women he'd sing them to or men whom played dominos against him. Father is known since the 1960s as the domino Dominator, blanks apponents (meaning leaves apponents without a single win) for weeks. He'd use he catchy phrases to get players attention off the game.
This a more common PR triple ententre.
♪ Abre mucarao los ojos el tiempo te estas enganllando,  que en lo que usted estas durmiende el otro te easta belando .♪ (sorree no espykie inglee.)
Quoting 43. hydrus:

The new winter report from AER....cold stays around.....Link


I was thinking today about how warming affects the polar jet stream and had a horrifying thought that we might be in line for a year without a summer here in the NE. Granted, we haven't had a huge volcanic eruption, but what if that ridge out west just keeps hanging around. It's a bit too "Day After Tomorrow" to contemplate with so many feet of snow still on the ground....
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare date 2014/2015


looks neutral




It really does. Does anyone notice that the warmest water is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a somewhat cooling trend in the eastern Pacific basin, with below, to near average sst's? This may mean a likelihood of a modoki el nino developing. What are the probabilities/chances, if any of this rare phenomenon developing? Can anyone elaborate on the topic, if you're not too bothered? If indeed an el nino develops, this would be my first. Just curious 😁.
Quoting 87. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I got a bridge................... How are you young man? Hope all is well!


Hey, Joe. Somebody here won't let me on the blog much anymore.... hmmmmm. Doing good, and you?

It's been very warm this whole winter down here. We usually try and get to our place in Pennsylvania, but the winter has been too harsh. Reminds me off the last ice age. Boy, I thought that thing would never end.
Quoting 95. Grothar:



Hey, Joe. Somebody here won't let me on the blog much anymore.... hmmmmm. Doing good, and you?

It's been very warm this whole winter down here. We usually try and get to our place in Pennsylvania, but the winter has been too harsh. Reminds me off the last ice age. Boy, I thought that thing would never end.


Hanging in there Gro! Just got a scooter from the VA, it arrived yesterday....wife boots me out now......kinda like my breath is bad or something.........I take my avatar out for walks now! I will admit, it is nice getting out and around. I too like a seasonal change.....but you can have that ice age stuff back east! I done been spolt out here in Soo Cali.
I see that train a coming, it's rolling around the bend.... And I ain't seen the sunshine since I don't know when.......and it seems more is on the way. I say......bring it on!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
139 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD STORM
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A FEW MORE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS. THE
26/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE MID-TERM...AND SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN THE LONG TERM.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW. LOWERING HEIGHTS FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO LOWER AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AND DEEPEN...ARRIVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA BY LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER SW CA...WITH GREATEST
CHANCES...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND COLDEST WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 7000 FT FRIDAY EVENING...DROP TO
AROUND 5500 FT SATURDAY MORNING...AND BOTTOM OUT AT NEAR 4000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING. H500 TEMPS OF -26 DEG C WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD GENERATE
LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHERE THEY DEVELOP. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SYSTEM...WITH STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
DESERTS.....0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST.......0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
VALLEYS.....0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...1.50 TO 2.75 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
4000 TO 5000 FT...1 TO 4 INCHES
5000 TO 6000 FT...4 TO 10 INCHES
6000 TO 7000 FT...6 TO 12 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FT.....10 TO 16 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM AND CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS LOW...AROUND 4500 FT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH...AS
WELL. MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF DIGS A
TROUGH ALONG SW CA...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED IN THE SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN
RECENTLY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
It looks like spring has sprung for south Florida...

Quoting Grothar:


Acually it is Yin and Yang. :)
I'm sotty, I cpme frm the Pottery school of spellingk. :-)
Is anyone else having the problem of not seeing your post until you refresh about 20 times? And I can see my new post flash by each time? I probably won't know if this posts for about five minutes.
Quoting 98. GeoffreyWPB:

It looks like spring has sprung for south Florida...




I did a 5 year stint in Naples, always wanted spring to hold off til April....IMO February and March are the best months in South Florida.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

I'm sotty, I cpme frm the Pottery school of spellingk. :-)


We can figure it out ; )
Quoting aevil2:


I was thinking today about how warming affects the polar jet stream and had a horrifying thought that we might be in line for a year without a summer here in the NE. Granted, we haven't had a huge volcanic eruption, but what if that ridge out west just keeps hanging around. It's a bit too "Day After Tomorrow" to contemplate with so many feet of snow still on the ground....
If it makes you feel any better, every year right about this time I thought it would never, ever get warm in Cleveland again. And it would never stop snowing. Or that I could ever go outside without two sweaters and a parka. I always got slightly suicidal about now. But, it always did get warm, the snow always melted, and in two months I was griping about the heat and humidity. Of course, that was just after Cleveland became a city back in about 1820 or so. Maybe all this global warming stuff has screwed things up. But I don't really think so. :-)
Quoting 100. sar2401:

Is anyone else having the problem of not seeing your post until you refresh about 20 times? And I can see my new post flash by each time? I probably won't know if this posts for about five minutes.


See what them narcotic prescriptions do?
Quoting 89. hydrus:

Yep... Gro was around before the Dead Sea was even sick.



And God said, "Let there be Gro".
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


See what them narcotic prescriptions do?
No, those just make me see seahorses. I think this is being caused by blood pressure medication...or maybe it's my diuretic. Geez, it could be anything. I have two shelves in the bathroom that look like the back shelf of the pharmacy.
More Snow, Ice to End February, Kick Off March in West, Plains, Midwest, Northeast

March arrives Sunday. This may leave you thinking this siege of winter weather may let up soon. But another expansive stripe of snow and ice is looming starting Friday and through the weekend.

After the snowiest single month on record for parts of New England, this time the West will join in the wintry weather, along with the Plains, Midwest and Northeast.

West: Winter Returns
This kicks off with a major pattern change in the West.

February was largely dominated by an expansive ridge, or dome, of high pressure aloft that deflected the primary storm track into western Canada, keeping much of the region warm and dry.

Starting Friday, the jet stream will take a sharp nosedive southward into the West, eventually closing off an area of low pressure over California and Nevada this weekend.

As that happens, impulses of snow will slide down the Cascades, Great Basin and Rockies through Friday. This will include the desperately snow-starved Sierra.

Once the upper-level low closes off and stalls over California and Nevada, heavier, more persistent snow will likely be wrung out over the canyonlands of southern Utah, Mogollon Rim of Arizona, the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos of Colorado and New Mexico.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I see that train a coming, it's rolling around the bend.... And I ain't seen the sunshine since I don't know when.......and it seems more is on the way. I say......bring it on!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
139 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Be careful about being too happy. Were you in California for the 1976-1977 drought? I was, and it was pretty bad. Bad enough that they had to run water pipelines across the bridges in the Bay Area to bring water to Marin County. Then it finally started to rain. We were all happy. Until it wouldn't stop, that is. We had some of the worst floods in history up until that time. Things in California turn on a dime when it comes to weather.


more snow for the west again!! maybe name winter storm soon
Weekend Mess
The jet stream will then send a series of disturbances rippling over the battleground between arctic cold and warmer air trying to push north. The first of these will spread a wintry mess through the Plains, Midwest and Northeast this weekend.

The maps at left show our current forecasts for Saturday and Sunday. It should be noted that we expect the majority of precipitation to push through the I-95 Northeast corridor later Sunday into Sunday night.

The lines between snow, sleet/ice, and rain are likely to shift, as is common with most forecasts three days out and beyond. While it is too soon to specify important forecast details like snowfall amounts, here is the general flavor of this weekend's mess.

Snow:

- A stripe of moderate to locally heavy snow from the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, southern Great Lakes and interior Northeast.

- POTENTIAL CITIES: Kansas City | Chicago | Syracuse
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

- A second pocket of light freezing drizzle may develop overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning in the southern Appalachians, possibly including the Atlanta metro area. At this time, temperatures are expected to warm above freezing during the day Sunday.

- This does not appear to be a major ice storm. Instead, impacts mainly look to be slick roads, especially bridges and overpasses, with perhaps some sporadic power outages in the extreme.

- POTENTIAL CITIES: St. Louis | Philadelphia | Atlanta

If that wasn't enough, the snowy, icy beat continues into next week, as more jet-stream energy nosedives into California, and yet another wintry mess takes shape in the Midwest and East Tuesday into Wednesday.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Here you go. For less than the price of a Happy Meal, you can play Seahorse Dress Up :)

Look at that seahorse. She is soooo cute!!! Little eyebrows and those eyes. She is sooo cute!!! I'm gonna buy that program and practice dressing her up. How could any respectable science journal not publish our study with a mascot that's sooo cute!!!! Naga, I like the narwhal idea, I really do. After seeing Bonnie's seahorse though, how could any other creature, especially one with 14 foot beak (or whatever that is hanging off their face), compete with Ms La Nacion? I mean, really, if Dr. Soon could get published and not even claim it was a comedy, we should have zero trouble getting our study published. April 1 might be a good date to shoot for. OK, you guys need to come up with an attention grabbing title for the study. Something that includes Neutral and El Nino and seahorses in bikinis. I know y'all can come up with something good. I can see us having our own column on Skeptical Science already! She is sooooo cute!!!!!


An American Airlines jetliner follows the ribbon of runway to take off from snow-covered Denver International Airport Monday, Feb. 23, 2015, in Denver
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Be careful about being too happy. Were you in California for the 1976-1977 drought? I was, and it was pretty bad. Bad enough that they had to run water pipelines across the bridges in the Bay Area to bring water to Marin County. Then it finally started to rain. We were all happy. Until it wouldn't stop, that is. We had some of the worst floods in history up until that time. Things in California turn on a dime when it comes to weather.


It's probably because they told Jake to forget about it.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

No, those just make me see seahorses. I think this is being caused by blood pressure medication...or maybe it's my diuretic. Geez, it could be anything. I have two shelves in the bathroom that look like the back shelf of the pharmacy.


Yup........Im up to 14 and of course I have to take them at different times! What a pain in the you know what.
Quoting 105. TimTheWxMan:




And God said, "Let there be Gro".


And There Was!............LOL
Quoting 101. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I did a 5 year stint in Naples, always wanted spring to hold off til April....IMO February and March are the best months in South Florida.


It was 65 last Friday in Miami, my lord did that feel great since it was 25-30 in Wilmington that day. I've only been to Florida once in the summer but that was a Disney vacation with the family circa 2001. I was 9 going on 10. It was in the 70's at the end of November when I was at the Jaguars-Giants game in Jacksonville this past year.
They say Patrap and Grothar, and both have a rainbow Logo.

What does it mean ?

How did they get to 29 Palms?






Quoting 105. TimTheWxMan:




And God said, "Let there be Gro".


More like Gro said, "Time to retire. Let there be God!...Ok..not what I expected, but here, you take over. There's a margarita surplus at the beach I need to take care of."
Quoting 109. hurricanes2018:






Community Participation
1804 comments and 19 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 138 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 123192 comments in all blogs.
Quoting 121. Xyrus2000:



More like Gro said, "Time to retire. Let there be God!...Ok..not what I expected, but here, you take over. There's a margarita surplus at the beach I need to take care of."


Nearby Weather Stations cold feb 26 2015 at 8:57pm
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
23.0 °F
DopplerDon.com
23.3 °F
Rock Hill
23.1 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
24.3 °F
Foxon
21.7 °F
East Haven Town Beach
24.0 °F
east haven morgan point
24.8 °F

much warming tonight so far no 0s weather here tonight
Evening all.... so far whatever cold there has been associated with this latest system has stayed well to our north... we hit 84 and stuck there for much of the afternoon .... one day, and I'm already dreading the heat of summer ... :o)

Looking at the forecast, it seems they're expecting the tail end of that front to stall out over the NW / Central Bahamas then drift off to the east ... IOW, not much more in the way of cold air for us .... :o/
just as I said boom boom boom boom




Terrence McCoy


The Washington Post - %u200EThursday%u200E, %u200EFebruary%u200E %u200E26%u200E, %u200E2015
The Siberian crater saga is more widespread %u2014 and scarier %u2014 than anyone thought

At the end of last summer came news of a bizarre occurrence no one could explain. It was a massive crater that just one day showed up. Early estimates placed it at nearly 100 feet in diameter, nestled deep in Siberia%u2019s Yamal Peninsula, a place called %u201Cthe ends of the Earth.%u201D

The saga deepened. The Siberian crater wasn%u2019t alone. There were two more, ratcheting up the tension in a drama that hit its climax as a probable explanation surfaced. Global warming had thawed the permafrost, which had caused methane trapped inside the icy ground to explode. %u201CGas pressure increased until it was high enough to push away the overlaying layers in a powerful injection, forming the crater,%u201D one German scientist said at the time.


Now, however, researchers fear there are more craters than anyone knew %u2014 and the repercussions could be huge. Russian scientists have now spotted a total of seven craters, five of which are in the Yamal Peninsula. Two of those holes have since turned into lakes. And one giant crater is rimmed by a ring of at least 20 mini-craters, the Siberian Times reported. Dozens more Siberian craters are likely still out there, said Moscow scientist Vasily Bogoyavlensky of the Oil and Gas Research Institute, calling for an %u201Curgent%u201D investigation.

He fears that if temperatures continue to rise %u2014 and they were five degrees higher than average in 2012 and 2013 %u2014 more craters will emerge in an area awash in gas fields vital to the national economy. %u201CIt is important not to scare people, but to understand that it is a very serious problem and we must research this,%u201D he told the Siberian Times. %u201C%u2026 We must research this phenomenon urgently, to prevent possible disasters.%u201D

One potential disaster relates to the explosions themselves. No one has been hurt in any of the blasts, but given the size of some of the craters, it%u2019s fair to say the methane bursts are huge. Researchers are nervous about even studying them. Who knows when a methane geyser will shoot off again?

%u201CThese objects need to be studied, but it is rather dangerous for the researchers,%u201D Bogoyavlensky told the Siberian Times. %u201CWe know that there can occur a series of gas emissions over an extended period of time, but we do not know exactly when they might happen. %u2026 It is very risky, because no one can guarantee there would not be new emissions.%u201D

Making matters worse, the gas is extremely flammable. One of the methane bursts has already caught fire. Nearby residents in a town called Antipayuta say they recently saw a bright flash in the distance. %u201CProbably the gas ignited,%u201D Bogoyavlensky said. %u201C%u2026 This shows us that such [an] explosion could be rather dangerous and destructive. Years of experience has shown that gas emissions can cause serious damage to drilling rigs, oil and gas fields and offshore pipelines.%u201D

Of particular interest is the Siberian crater B2. Since its emergence, only six miles away from Bovanenkovo, a major Gazprom gas field, it has turned into a lake. But even now, photographs show, there are wisps of methane. The crater, covered by water, is still leaking gas. %u201CThis haze that you see on the surface show that gas seeps that go from the bottom of the lake to the surface,%u201D Bogoyavlensky told the Siberian Times. %u201CWe call this process %u2018degassing.%u2019%u201D

So, to recap: Siberia is warming. Permafrost thaws and spews methane, and blasting out a burst of highly flammable gas. Who could have guessed global warming would do all of that?

%u201CNo one knows what is happening in these craters at the moment,%u201D Bogoyavlensky said. %u201CWe plan a new expedition.%u201D
faster and faster
Only 3 months, 3 weeks and 3 days until the days start getting shorter!
Quoting 129. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 3 months, 3 weeks and 3 days until the days start getting shorter!
I be in 80's then I wont care
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Yup........Im up to 14 and of course I have to take them at different times! What a pain in the you know what.
Really. There should be some way that they could design one semi-giant pill that had everything we needed. We could choke it down three times a day and be done with it. I don't think that people who are fortunate enough not to be on a ton of meds realize how they start to take over your life. I appreciate that science has come up with all these medications to allow us to live a longer and less painful life, I really do. There times I'd like to chuck them all out a window and just enjoy the remaining 42.7 hours I'd have without them. ;-)
double post removed
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Be careful about being too happy. Were you in California for the 1976-1977 drought? I was, and it was pretty bad. Bad enough that they had to run water pipelines across the bridges in the Bay Area to bring water to Marin County. Then it finally started to rain. We were all happy. Until it wouldn't stop, that is. We had some of the worst floods in history up until that time. Things in California turn on a dime when it comes to weather.


Don't remember 76-77 but remember Miracle March in 1991. San Diego avg 1.44" of rain for March received 5.61" or 400% of normal. Most of California had similar results. Floods or Droughts.......choose your poison carefully.
Quoting 130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I be in 80's then I wont care


I didn't realize you were that old, KEEP?
Quoting 129. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 3 months, 3 weeks and 3 days until the days start getting shorter!

That's depressing. I live for summer and long days.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just as I said boom boom boom boom


The Siberian crater saga is more widespread — and scarier — than anyone thought...
“It is important not to scare people..." except for the headline, and the flaming jets of methane causing giant fires and explosions that we really can't explain, but they might happen almost any time, maybe in your backyard, plus those monster holes in the ground, and we're too scared to go investigate because of the huge fountains of explosive, flammable gas that might go off right under our scientific butts. Other than that, there's really nothing to be scared about.

Those Siberians are such scamps. :-)
Quoting 131. sar2401:

Really. There should be some way that they could design one semi-giant pill that had everything we needed. We could choke it down three times a day and be done with it. I don't think that people who are fortunate enough not to be on a ton of meds realize how they start to take over your life. I appreciate that science has come up with all these medications to allow us to live a longer and less painful life, I really do. There times I'd like to chuck them all out a window and just enjoy the remaining 42.7 hours I'd have without them. ;-)


That reminds me.........I have to take some meds now!......LOL
Quoting 134. Grothar:



I didn't realize you were that old, KEEP?
iam not iam only 50 well not yet in sept. though
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Don't remember 76-77 but remember Miracle March in 1991. San Diego avg 1.44" of rain for March received 5.61" or 400% of normal. Most of California had similar results. Floods or Droughts.......choose your poison carefully.
Yeah, there was 1982, then 1986, then the floods of 1991-92, then the really huge flood of 1995, then the high water of 1997. In between, there was hardly any rain and your lawn and all you landscaping shriveled up and died because of the odd-even watering thing. One of the reasons I left in 2005 was I figured a flood, drought, earthquake, or plague of locusts was due, and I was leaving while the I still had a chance. Kinda strange though. Since the floods of '97, there's hardly been another one worth talking about. They were regular as clockwork in the '80's and 90's and then just stopped. There must be a pattern there somewhere.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


That reminds me.........I have to take some meds now!......LOL
I already took mine. Our seahorse is looking even cuter. ;-)
Quoting 134. Grothar:



I didn't realize you were that old, KEEP?


About the age of your kids huh Gro?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just as I said boom boom boom boom




Terrence McCoy


The Washington Post - %u200EThursday%u200E, %u200EFebruary%u200E %u200E26%u200E, %u200E2015
The Siberian crater saga is more widespread %u2014 and scarier %u2014 than anyone thought

At the end of last summer came news of a bizarre occurrence no one could explain. It was a massive crater that just one day showed up. Early estimates placed it at nearly 100 feet in diameter, nestled deep in Siberia%u2019s Yamal Peninsula, a place called %u201Cthe ends of the Earth.%u201D

The saga deepened. The Siberian crater wasn%u2019t alone. There were two more, ratcheting up the tension in a drama that hit its climax as a probable explanation surfaced. Global warming had thawed the permafrost, which had caused methane trapped inside the icy ground to explode. %u201CGas pressure increased until it was high enough to push away the overlaying layers in a powerful injection, forming the crater,%u201D one German scientist said at the time.


Now, however, researchers fear there are more craters than anyone knew %u2014 and the repercussions could be huge. Russian scientists have now spotted a total of seven craters, five of which are in the Yamal Peninsula. Two of those holes have since turned into lakes. And one giant crater is rimmed by a ring of at least 20 mini-craters, the Siberian Times reported. Dozens more Siberian craters are likely still out there, said Moscow scientist Vasily Bogoyavlensky of the Oil and Gas Research Institute, calling for an %u201Curgent%u201D investigation.

He fears that if temperatures continue to rise %u2014 and they were five degrees higher than average in 2012 and 2013 %u2014 more craters will emerge in an area awash in gas fields vital to the national economy. %u201CIt is important not to scare people, but to understand that it is a very serious problem and we must research this,%u201D he told the Siberian Times. %u201C%u2026 We must research this phenomenon urgently, to prevent possible disasters.%u201D

One potential disaster relates to the explosions themselves. No one has been hurt in any of the blasts, but given the size of some of the craters, it%u2019s fair to say the methane bursts are huge. Researchers are nervous about even studying them. Who knows when a methane geyser will shoot off again?

%u201CThese objects need to be studied, but it is rather dangerous for the researchers,%u201D Bogoyavlensky told the Siberian Times. %u201CWe know that there can occur a series of gas emissions over an extended period of time, but we do not know exactly when they might happen. %u2026 It is very risky, because no one can guarantee there would not be new emissions.%u201D

Making matters worse, the gas is extremely flammable. One of the methane bursts has already caught fire. Nearby residents in a town called Antipayuta say they recently saw a bright flash in the distance. %u201CProbably the gas ignited,%u201D Bogoyavlensky said. %u201C%u2026 This shows us that such [an] explosion could be rather dangerous and destructive. Years of experience has shown that gas emissions can cause serious damage to drilling rigs, oil and gas fields and offshore pipelines.%u201D

Of particular interest is the Siberian crater B2. Since its emergence, only six miles away from Bovanenkovo, a major Gazprom gas field, it has turned into a lake. But even now, photographs show, there are wisps of methane. The crater, covered by water, is still leaking gas. %u201CThis haze that you see on the surface show that gas seeps that go from the bottom of the lake to the surface,%u201D Bogoyavlensky told the Siberian Times. %u201CWe call this process %u2018degassing.%u2019%u201D

So, to recap: Siberia is warming. Permafrost thaws and spews methane, and blasting out a burst of highly flammable gas. Who could have guessed global warming would do all of that?

%u201CNo one knows what is happening in these craters at the moment,%u201D Bogoyavlensky said. %u201CWe plan a new expedition.%u201D
keep, can you ask the webbies there, if they're not too busy playing WoW, to please fix the %u201 problem that exists every time someone does a copy and paste from many other sites, and even if you just edit your own post? What you posted is almost impossible to read because of it. Or maybe it only happens on Classic. Regardless, it should get fixed. I've posted about this three times in the support form and have only received the obviously canned "We're looking into it" response.
Quoting 142. sar2401:

keep, can you ask the webbies there, if they're not too busy playing WoW, to please fix the %u201 problem that exists every time someone does a copy and paste from many other sites, and even if you just edit your own post? What you posted is almost impossible to read because of it. Or maybe it only happens on Classic. Regardless, it should get fixed. I've posted about this three times in the support form and have only received the obviously canned "We're looking into it" response.
I've notice as well but only started today be right back going to try something
ok that did not work sign out cleared cache and resign in and its still messed up quote thing I will send someone a message and screen shot see what they say
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Be careful about being too happy. Were you in California for the 1976-1977 drought? I was, and it was pretty bad. Bad enough that they had to run water pipelines across the bridges in the Bay Area to bring water to Marin County. Then it finally started to rain. We were all happy. Until it wouldn't stop, that is. We had some of the worst floods in history up until that time. Things in California turn on a dime when it comes to weather.


Been in Soo Cal since 1961 except for my Air Force days and a 5 year stint in Naples Florida ........it got too big and moved back to Soo Cal out here in the boonies/mountains of San Diego County....I live in a valley at 3325 elevation on the east side of Palomar Mountain. In 1976 I was in college.......maybe it was too many bong hits to remember all the rain.
146. flsky
Homemade ice melt.
Link
So working it out there are 2 left in Feb. plus 31 for March plus 30 for April plus 31 for May which equal ninety-four days left to hurricane season....Link wiki 2015_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Only 3 months, 3 weeks and 3 days until the days start getting shorter!
That's true.
A severe weather event coming next week guys? Maybe some straight line winds?
Quoting 33. ricderr:

you guys are gonna hate me......i just found a new toy...a site that links a few of the different enso models




Hate you? No, love you!! I just LOVE what the models show.
Maybe cool neutral for the peak of the hurricane season :)
Also, in their seasonal forecast, METEO FRANCE said that the current weak El Nino is expected to weaken....
When u quote some copied text its coded to defend a re post.

Its allways 6 characters behind a hyphen or comma ending or some Numbers.

It aint hard to edit in modify, some are just lazy.

Also when u modify some text, it will kick it.


Thats why we have a preview prompt before the post comment.
According to METEO FRANCE : "En 2014, l'attention des climatologues s'est largement focalisée sur l'océan Pacifique où un phénomène El Niño de faible intensité s'est produit. Le phénomène est maintenant en phase de régression et les températures de surface de l'océan au voisinage de l'équateur dans l'est du Pacifique vont se rapprocher des normales au cours du trimestre prochain"
Quoting CaribBoy:
According to METEO FRANCE : "En 2014, l'attention des climatologues s'est largement focalisée sur l'océan Pacifique où un phénomène El Niño de faible intensité s'est produit. Le phénomène est maintenant en phase de régression et les températures de surface de l'océan au voisinage de l'équateur dans l'est du Pacifique vont se rapprocher des normales au cours du trimestre prochain"
I was just thinking that earlier today...
157. wxmod
"Scientists who worked on the National Research Council’s new report on climate intervention want us to understand that they think geoengineering is a terrible idea, but they think it’s crucial that we study it.

"The scientists think it’s a bad idea to tinker with the atmosphere and ocean to counteract climate change because there may be unintended consequences. But Admiral David Titley, former head of the Navy’s oceanography command, gave at least four reasons Tuesday why we should study such bad ideas:"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2015/02/2 5/four-reasons-to-study-a-bad-idea-geoengineering/
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok that did not work sign out cleared cache and resign in and its still messed up quote thing I will send someone a message and screen shot see what they say
Yeah, I've tried all the usual things too, and with the same results. It seems to choke on apostrophes for some reason. Someone who understands HTML, like the people at WU who are getting paid for such things, should be able to figure this out in short order if they really wanted to.

Update - found it. It's the Unicode Character 'RIGHT DOUBLE QUOTATION MARK' (U+201D). Some sites use this instead of the typical single quotation mark, either because that's part of their font style or it's coming from a foreign language site with text translated to English electronically. If the youngsters will just check out this page, they should find the information they need to fix this. They should be able to write a script to look for instances of the right double quote mark and replace it with a single quote...but I'm not going to do all their work for them. :-)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Been in Soo Cal since 1961 except for my Air Force days and a 5 year stint in Naples Florida ........it got too big and moved back to Soo Cal out here in the boonies/mountains of San Diego County....I live in a valley at 3325 elevation on the east side of Palomar Mountain. In 1976 I was in college.......maybe it was too many bong hits to remember all the rain.
LOL. I had just moved up there in 1977 and remember driving past the big water pipeline laid directly on the road surface of the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge. It was over in the breakdown lane going westbound. It was a skinny bridge to begin with and now there was no place to pull over if something went wrong. Bad idea as far as traffic went but it was the only way to get water to Marin. They left it there for a couple of years to see if the drought was really over and finally pulled it. Probably be putting it back soon. :-)
Quoting 154. Patrap:

When u quote some copied text its coded to defend a re post.

Its allways 6 characters behind a hyphen or comma ending or some Numbers.

It aint hard to edit in modify, some are just lazy.

Also when u modify some text, it will kick it.


Thats why we have a preview prompt before the post comment.




Preview? I don't need no stinkin' preview! Post first, think later. Better yet, modify the comment before anyone notices. :O)
Quoting 138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

iam not iam only 50 well not yet in sept. though


I didn't think you that old... Happy early birthday.

Days are getting nice a long here now...
Quoting 161. Dakster:



I didn't think you that old... Happy early birthday.

Days are getting nice a long here now...

yep
sun set today the sun just passed the building to my west as it was going down
time for oldmanwinter to get up and out he is finish till next winter
Did you get any ice last night Cody?

And you saw the name when you clicked that article--that was fair warning! ;)

Cody should get an account there and set em straight in the comments ;)
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Preview? I don't need no stinkin' preview! Post first, think later. Better yet, modify the comment before anyone notices. :O)
You shouldn't need a preview to see if the site screwed up copied text, and you shouldn't have to go through and modify text to restore it to the original because this site screwed it up. In most cases, the mishandled text won't show up in your first paste, it only shows up when it's modified or when it's quoted in a reply, so preview won't help. Everyone who quotes the original post would have to go through and remove all the mishandled text, even if it's quoted 50 times by 50 different posters. It has nothing to do with "defend a re-post". The originating site handles that by turning off the copy function on that site, not here. It has to with a double right quote not being properly handled by this site. Drinking lots of Fresca doesn't mean you understand HTML or website coding.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep
sun set today the sun just passed the building to my west as it was going down
time for oldmanwinter to get up and out he is finish till next winter
Supposed to get up into the 70's starting Sunday and then most of next week. It's possible we could get another night or two of frost, but this is usually when old man winter starts to leave stage right. It can't come too soon this winter.
been doing follow up on this methane crater stuff
lots of reading
I believe we are witnessing a significant tipping point of no return

and those craters are not only going to be in Siberia
but also northern Alaska and northern Canada as well
and likely under the water more so when covered by ice blocking the escape till it builds up to break free
or the ice melts in the spring summer season
we shall see them show up in great numbers soon
if not already


if it is what I think it is
things are going to get real ugly
in but a short time
a lot sooner than the suggested
2050 mark
maybe as soon as 2020/2025

Ah, nothing more fun than having a microsoft word data file get corrupted for an entire lab report, looks like I have to start over at nearly 2 AM, lol, I guess there's a first for everything...

I was ready, to go to bed, and get sleep, but no, since it's due tomorrow, looks like I'm in for an unexpected rough night.
burn the midnight oil
Quoting Jedkins01:
Ah, nothing more fun than having a microsoft word data file get corrupted for an entire lab report, looks like I have to start over at nearly 2 AM, lol, I guess there's a first for everything...

I was ready, to go to bed, and get sleep, but no, since it's due tomorrow, looks like I'm in for an unexpected rough night.
Did you try exporting it to an RTF file? That will sometimes recover a corrupted file, assuming you can open the file at all. You can also try the Open And Repair option. Go to Open, select the bad file, and then choose Open and Repair. It does sometimes work. Good luck!
170. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
SUBJECT:: Obs on next wxtrend (usually only for my personal eMail, but posting it on WxU as a taste of what i use to do privately) includes audio. i also tapped danced, i edited that part out...okay was more of a "nyc midnite tap dance" ...never heard of that? some call it the midnite roach squish squash....too soon?
http://youtu.be/AYPBHiVLlcY (512x408*same size)

............sorry for the low gif quality over cooked my onionskins.
Quoting 169. sar2401:

Did you try exporting it to an RTF file? That will sometimes recover a corrupted file, assuming you can open the file at all. You can also try the Open And Repair option. Go to Open, select the bad file, and then choose Open and Repair. It does sometimes work. Good luck!


Thanks but unfortunately hope is lost on getting it back lol, I tried recovery options including that, my only hope now is redoing it which I'm doing now, but it's going to be an all nighter. This isn't a lab report from a standard college physics or chemistry class. These are many pages and include large data sets and various forms of analysis, it's a 4000 level meteorology instrument lab course, basically its a great course to take as a prerequisite for graduate lab research. Other than this unfortunate event, it's a great course, I've really enjoyed it so far, it even has an engineering aspect since we have to take electronic components and build our own instruments and run tests on them by taking many obs and then testing for error and reporting on them.

We also perform a great deal of analysis on current instruments used now that are standard, which is really helpful as well.

So needless to say, I lost a lot of work, thankfully I still have all my programing calculations finished and have sorted statistical graphical material in excel and another word file, so I have to just rewrite the written report, but still, it's going to be a while, lol.
172. vis0
REPLY TO SAR23001 of Quote #724 of Dr. Masters; entry#2922pg15 has been posted under comment #887  of the previous blog.
WARNING::
Its advised to turn audio levels down or after the first listen turn audio off, jump on speakers while cursing out whomever invented them  when viewing VID contents of #887 on the PREVIOUS BLOGBYTE. Apology if any of the other ~9 comments i made in the last blog offends anyone, i'm sorry.




here come more snow!!
Good morning WU. Besides small areas in S. Florida and SW Oregon, I don't know the last time I saw this looking so clear:

Radar mosaic removed - areas of precip now visible (TX/OK & Pacific NW) - perhaps it wasn't working earlier?
A friend of mine brought this to my attention this morning. What a novel way to partially solve energy production/consumption issues at the city level.

Portland Now Generates Electricity From Turbines Installed In City Water Pipes:

"Portland has replaced a section of its existing water supply network with Lucid Energy pipes containing four forty-two inch turbines. As water flows through the pipes, the turbines spin and power attached generators, which then feed energy back into the city’s electrical grid. Known as the “Conduit 3 Hydroelectric Project,” Portland’s new clean energy source is scheduled to be up and running at full capacity in March. According to a Lucid Energy FAQ detailing the partnership, this will be the “first project in the U.S. to secure a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for renewable energy produced by in-pipe hydropower in a municipal water pipeline." "

Ideas like this are exactly what allows us to really move towards the idea of carbon neutral city plans. Remember, the impetus to act on climate change needs to come from all levels, the individual, the business, the city, the state, and the national in order to be successful.


Onshore wind behind the stalled front will keep things very cloudy in the Tampa Bay area today.
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

been doing follow up on this methane crater stuff
lots of reading
I believe we are witnessing a significant tipping point of no return

and those craters are not only going to be in Siberia
but also northern Alaska and northern Canada as well
and likely under the water more so when covered by ice blocking the escape till it builds up to break free
or the ice melts in the spring summer season
we shall see them show up in great numbers soon
if not already


if it is what I think it is
things are going to get real ugly
in but a short time
a lot sooner than the suggested
2050 mark
maybe as soon as 2020/2025


Hi Keep. maybe not, maybe it will take a lot longer than they think. To many maybe's, in all these post to really trust them. More research is needed on the methane releases around the world. What will happen to all the CO2 blogs, as I think methane is a bigger problem than a minor trace gas and deserves all the attention. Better hope for a cold spring and summer in the far north.
#126 - Keeper

Regarding Siberian craters...

I think this is where drones could be useful to find other sites. Can drones collect air samples?

Making matters worse, the gas is extremely flammable. One of the methane bursts has already caught fire. Nearby residents in a town called Antipayuta say they recently saw a bright flash in the distance. "Probably the gas ignited," Bogoyavlensky said.

What caused the ignition of the methane/what's the ignition source?
Quoting 179. NativeSun:

Hi Keep. maybe not, maybe it will take a lot longer than they think. To many maybe's, in all these post to really trust them. More research is needed on the methane releases around the world. What will happen to all the CO2 blogs, as I think methane is a bigger problem than a minor trace gas and deserves all the attention. Better hope for a cold spring and summer in the far north.


Methane is a minor trace gas measured is Parts per Billion, while CO2 is measured in Parts per Million. You have contradicted your own "trace gas" nonsense argument. Methane is a well known ghg, and it's effects are counted a potentially dangerous feedback (through natural release of methane in the ocean and permafrost). Co2 blogs? What are you even talking about? If you would bother to read the science, the fear of the positive methane release feedback is well discussed and documented. As is the science behind global warming. All this has been covered, I wish you wouldn't ignore it.

Interestingly, the location of the craters mentioned in the article posted by Keep are not anywhere near the 'borders' of permafrost & non-permafrost areas.

From Berkeley Earth, (Graphics: Physical Effects of Warming):

Permafrost Melt Since 1900:


Figure 7. Permafrost, or cryotic soil, is defined as soil that is at or below 0C for 2 or more years. In the above figure we use the air temperature estimated by the Berkeley Earth averaging method to create an estimate of permafrost extent and its retreat over the last hundred years. While factors other than air temperature do play a role in the formation of permafrost (such as the slope and aspect of the terrain), the average annual air temperature does provide a good estimate of where permafrost has formed. Regions where the annual air temperature averaged 0C or below for the 1901-1910 time period are colored in red, while those areas that were 0C or lower during the 2001-2010 period are colored in white.

Area of Permafrost Melt Since 1900:


Figure 8. This figure shows the decline in permafrost potential over the 1850 to 2013 time period. The permafrost potential is defined by the decadal air temperature. If the annual average temperature over a 10-year period was 0C or below, then that area was regarded as permafrost. Over the 1900-to-present time span, roughly 4.5 million sq. km of potential permafrost area has been lost.
"The Earth's atmospheric methane concentration has increased by about 150% since 1750, and it accounts for 20% of the total radiative forcing from all of the long-lived and globally mixed greenhouse gases Usually, excess methane from landfills and other natural producers of methane is burned so CO2 is released into the atmosphere instead of methane, because methane is a more effective greenhouse gas" - From wikipedia
Quoting 180. LAbonbon:

#126 - Keeper

Regarding Siberian craters...

I think this is where drones could be useful to find other sites. Can drones collect air samples?

Making matters worse, the gas is extremely flammable. One of the methane bursts has already caught fire. Nearby residents in a town called Antipayuta say they recently saw a bright flash in the distance. "Probably the gas ignited," Bogoyavlensky said.

What caused the ignition of the methane/what's the ignition source?


only a couple have actually ignited
the rest just sorta burp out kinda and expel the area in a ejecta type event
looks like from things I have read and been reading
most experts were sayin we would likely not see this occurring
till 2040 or so but its happening much faster and sooner than expected like everything else we are seeing
more research is needed and soon
to see if this was just an isolated thing or if its increasing in occurrence
from what I can gather it appears to be happening faster
and since the first crater
they found 3 or 4 more
then 7 or so
now its up to a dozen or more as of now
something is going on and I hope its not what I think it is
which is a large scale event in the process of starting
cause if it is we got 5 to 10 years left before some serious problems begin
that may threaten the entire planet and all life that's on it
as we know it
I hope I am wrong

permafrost chart easy to make a chart but is it right? doubt it
The Berkeley Earth graphic, with area of Siberian craters mentioned in post #126, circled in red:

Quoting 185. islander101010:

permafrost chart easy to make a chart but is it right? doubt it

If you have an additional source of information, please share.
Quoting 185. islander101010:

permafrost chart easy to make a chart but is it right? doubt it


It's accurate as far as the parameters determined by the methodology to create the map, which Berkeley Earth has clearly articulated. Is any of this starting to sink in yet?

Quoting 186. LAbonbon:

The Berkeley Earth graphic, with area of Siberian craters mentioned in post #126, circled in red:




My conjecture, is that there may be very localized areas of warming that are responsible, while the Berkeley Earth's maps are great for a big look, I think they may fail to tell the story of small scale regional pockets of warmth that may be at least partially responsible. Thoughts?
Quoting 184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



only a couple have actually ignited
the rest just sorta burp out kinda and expel the area in a ejecta type event
looks like from things I have read and been reading
most experts were sayin we would likely not see this occurring
till 2040 or so but its happening much faster and sooner than expected like everything else we are seeing
more research is needed and soon
to see if this was just an isolated thing or if its increasing in occurrence
from what I can gather it appears to be happening faster
and since the first crater
they found 3 or 4 more
then 7 or so
now its up to a dozen or more as of now
something is going on and I hope its not what I think it is
which is a large scale event in the process of starting
cause if it is we got 5 to 10 years left before some serious problems begin
that may threaten the entire planet and all life that's on it
as we know it
I hope I am wrong



I hope you're wrong, too. I also thought this type of event was further off. Do you recall an article posted here a while back about a long-term study done in Europe (Germany or Switzerland, if memory serves) that showed a warming trend in groundwater? I'm going to try and find it. I think I had it saved on my previous laptop (dead hard drive).

Quoting 190. Naga5000:



My conjecture, is that there may be very localized areas of warming that are responsible, while the Berkeley Earth's maps are great for a big look, I think they may fail to tell the story of small scale regional pockets of warmth that may be at least partially responsible. Thoughts?

Seems like a valid hypothesis. There will certainly be a lot more info on this forthcoming.

My initial thought was that perhaps the sites were in a border/transition zone, but they're not. So then, why are they elsewhere? Do you recall seeing world maps last summer that showed really warm areas? I recall a portion of Siberia being consistently warm. I wonder if this is one of those areas? Do you know how to easily find that info (I'm sure you do...).
Look at happens to Nino 1&2 once this warm pool beneath Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 slides east toward South America in a few months.



JULY
Nino 3.4 could hit 1C over the next couple of days for the first time in months.

Rainy couple of days setting up for FL. Rain should begin tonight across C FL and last pretty much all day tomorrow. Could pick up .5 to 1" of rain on top of already nearly 4" so far this month.

Quoting 196. StormTrackerScott:

Rainy couple of days setting up for FL. Rain should begin tonight across C FL and last pretty much all day tomorrow. Could pick up .5 to 1" of rain on top of already nearly 4" so far this month.




That seems a little extreme. I highly doubt it will last all day, and local mets are calling for only off and on showers. We shall see what happens.

ON SATURDAY...UPGLIDE INCREASES IN DEPTH AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH.
RAINFALL COULD BE STEADIER AND HEAVIER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF LIFT EXIST BETWEEN MODELS.
THE MORE SHALLOW SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN WILL MORE PREVALENT OVER OUR
SOUTHERN INLAND LOCATIONS. A STEADIER AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED DEEPER SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.


DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE GENERALLY
BROAD-BRUSHED 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS A BIT BETTER LATER TODAY...
OR CERTAINLY BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THESE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES PLAY OUT.
Quoting 197. tampabaymatt:



That seems a little extreme. I highly doubt it will last all day, and local mets are calling for only off and on showers. We shall see what happens.


Here on the Eastside of FL a steady easterly flow combined with moisture from the Gulf should set up a drizzly to steady rain all day over here.

Strong sub tropical jet should make the weather interesting next couple of weeks. GFS has a system 5 to 6 days out that could cause some more headaches for N.E.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Nino 3.4 could hit 1C over the next couple of days for the first time in months.



So what?
There's a bit more info on the Siberian craters in this article from Live Science (dated yesterday):

More Mysterious Craters Found in Siberia
Come March 1st,,we will have now gone 30 years straight without a single Global cool Biased Monthly Avg temp.

Or 30 years of straight Warm Bias Global Avg temps.

Grasp that for a moment.

If you're younger than 30, you've never experienced a month in which the average surface temperature of the Earth was below average.



Quoting 192. LAbonbon:


I hope you're wrong, too. I also thought this type of event was further off. Do you recall an article posted here a while back about a long-term study done in Europe (Germany or Switzerland, if memory serves) that showed a warming trend in groundwater? I'm going to try and find it. I think I had it saved on my previous laptop (dead hard drive).


Seems like a valid hypothesis. There will certainly be a lot more info on this forthcoming.

My initial thought was that perhaps the sites were in a border/transition zone, but they're not. So then, why are they elsewhere? Do you recall seeing world maps last summer that showed really warm areas? I recall a portion of Siberia being consistently warm. I wonder if this is one of those areas? Do you know how to easily find that info (I'm sure you do...).


The coverage isn't good up there to document local extremes, we can get a good idea through way of averages or methodological techniques that estimate across distance, but that won't tell us if there was extremes that caused rapid melt/heating or something along those lines. An average regional temp 6 degree above normal for a month doesn't tell us if three of those days were actually 20 degrees above normal, you see what I'm saying?
Quoting 204. Naga5000:





The coverage isn't good up there to document local extremes, we can get a good idea through way of averages or methodological techniques that estimate across distance, but that won't tell us if there was extremes that caused rapid melt/heating or something along those lines. An average regional temp 6 degree above normal for a month doesn't tell us if three of those days were actually 20 degrees above normal, you see what I'm saying?

Yeah, I get what you're saying. But would it need to be very high above normal, or just an extended period of above normal..if that makes sense? I don't know the answer to that, but like I said, we are sure to hear a lot about this in the near future.
Quoting 192. LAbonbon:


I hope you're wrong, too. I also thought this type of event was further off. Do you recall an article posted here a while back about a long-term study done in Europe (Germany or Switzerland, if memory serves) that showed a warming trend in groundwater? I'm going to try and find it. I think I had it saved on my previous laptop (dead hard drive).


Seems like a valid hypothesis. There will certainly be a lot more info on this forthcoming.

My initial thought was that perhaps the sites were in a border/transition zone, but they're not. So then, why are they elsewhere? Do you recall seeing world maps last summer that showed really warm areas? I recall a portion of Siberia being consistently warm. I wonder if this is one of those areas? Do you know how to easily find that info (I'm sure you do...).
I have seen numerous monthly anomolies in that area over the last decade that in many cases have been 5-10 C above the monthly normal for that region.

When you have summers like they did for a one week stretch July 2013 like so...





Color bar for Heat Intensifies Siberian Wildfires

Imagine the amount of methane that could have gathered X amount feet under the ground during these episodes.  Eventually having reached a critical mass they can become explosive if the right ignition switch presents itself, lightning strikes ect.   Seems to me the more extreme heat waves over these type of topographies could become more and more frequent with time.  It is interesting to note that these are occurring where we had these extreme heat waves during the summer just very recently.  Some serious melting potential in those time frames.  Something to watch. 
Quoting 202. LAbonbon:

There's a bit more info on the Siberian craters in this article from Live Science (dated yesterday):

More Mysterious Craters Found in Siberia
I think now
what we wait for
is what is found with these Russian craters before we draw conclusions
and it would likely be wise
to have a few teams have a look around northern Alaska and nw Canada
to see if any have shown up there yet or likely catch one going up
and Alaska has been warm this winter
even to the point where the high northern coasts
have seen temps at or just above the freezing mark at times
and its the dead of winter or was anyway

now with spring rushing in
and likely to be a hot artic summer ahead
I am interested to see how this will play out
and if craters in fact start to appear
or be found on the
north western north American continent

Quoting 206. ILwthrfan:

I have seen numerous monthly anomolies in that area over the last decade that in many cases have been 5-10 C above the monthly normal for that region.

When you have summers like they did in July 2013 like so...





Color bar for Heat Intensifies Siberian Wildfires

Image the amount of methane that could have gathered X amount feet under the ground during these episodes.  Eventually having reached a critical mass they can become explosive if the right ignition switch presents itself, lightning strikes ect.   Seems to me the more extreme heat waves over these type of topographies could become more and more frequent with time.  It is interesting to note that these are occurring where we had these extreme heat waves during the summer just very recently.  Some serious melting potential in those time frames.  Something to watch. 


That's what I recall - thanks for posting the graphic. You make some excellent points. And frankly, I hadn't considered lightning as a possible ignition source (although it was probably obvious...).
Nice to see some snow forecast for the Cascades, even if it isn't a whole lot



And this one is for sar, because we know he loves the surface map symbols :)

So what?


so...it's the last time we're going to see values that high for awhile....look at the cool anomaly in the eastern enso region...as that traverses into the 3.4 region soon....we're going to see anomaly values drop rather quickly

Quoting 207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

(snip)

have a few teams have a look around northern Alaska and nw Canada

(snip)

An endeavor like that needs a theme song



All you want to know about the Yamal Peninsula and more, right here.

Scroll down to page 5 and 6 for temperature information.
Quoting 152. CaribBoy:

Also, in their seasonal forecast, METEO FRANCE said that the current weak El Nino is expected to weaken....
Its suppose to go super by June :)
Quoting 213. washingtonian115:

Its suppose to go super by June :)


But in reality... it won't :-)
Good Morning Folks. Here is the NWS headline for Conus today and the Jet and Loops:

Winter weather forecast for Rockies and southern Plains

A developing storm system will bring snow to parts of the Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, which will move into the central U.S. on Saturday. Freezing rain is also forecast from Texas to the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 20-40 degrees below normal across parts of the central and southern U.S. on Friday.









Its suppose to go super by June :)

only if you're a certain weather blogger.....i have yet to see any professional met state this
rain continues to train over PGA National.
It's moving from SW to NE, and shows no sign of truly letting up. Standing water and minor flooding is possible in the area.
Link
Quoting 208. LAbonbon:


That's what I recall - thanks for posting the graphic. You make some excellent points. And frankly, I hadn't considered lightning as a possible ignition source (although it was probably obvious...).


One must remember, a lightning strike would only detonate methane that has enough oxygen present to allow combustion.. methane still sequestered below ground, without O2 would not explode.
Texas continues to prove it has the most bipolar weather in our country.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 27 2015 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2015

...Heavy snow for parts of the Central/Southern Rockies...

...Temperatures will be 20 to near 40 degrees below average over the
Central and Southern Plains...

Temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below average from the Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and the Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Cold high pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move eastward
to the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday evening. Temperatures east of the Rockies
will be below average for the next few days. In addition, a closed
upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest will move southward to the
Great Basin by Saturday. The energy will trigger coastal rain and higher
elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest that will slowly move
southward into Southern California and the Great Basin by Saturday.

Meanwhile, circulation around the area of high pressure will aid in
producing upslope flow which will aid in producing snow over parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains on Friday morning. As the high
moves eastward return flow around the high will pull moisture off the Gulf
of Mexico. As the moisture moves farther inland, the snow over the
Central/Southern High Plains will expand eastward over parts of the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Rain will also
develop over parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley/Southern Plains on
Friday afternoon into Saturday. In between the areas of rain and snow, a
region of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Southern
Plains late Friday night into Saturday. Elsewhere, there will be areas of
rain over parts of southern Florida through Saturday.


Ziegenfelder
Quoting 218. indianrivguy:



One must remember, a lightning strike would only detonate methane that has enough oxygen present to allow combustion.. methane still sequestered below ground, without O2 would not explode.
If the forcing is strong enough , and depending on soil content , the methane could ignite upon contact with the atmosphere. Many types of soil contain stone and gravel capable of sparking. So an explosion or fire of some kind is possible.

Greetings River guy.
223. jpsb
Quoting 222. hydrus:

If the forcing is strong enough , and depending on soil content , the methane could ignite upon contact with the atmosphere. Many types of soil contain stone and gravel capable of sparking. So an explosion or fire of some kind is possible.


The holes look like almost perfect cylinders. How likely is that from a natural methane explosion?


10:04 AM EST on February 27, 2015 light snow in dallas
Quoting 190. Naga5000:



My conjecture, is that there may be very localized areas of warming that are responsible, while the Berkeley Earth's maps are great for a big look, I think they may fail to tell the story of small scale regional pockets of warmth that may be at least partially responsible. Thoughts?

That chart is very interesting in terms of the warm pockets.  I am not well versed in this area but I know that many scientists/papers have suggested that the Northern Hemisphere/Arctic will see the impacts of GW more than the SH.  Considering the counter-clockwise rotation of the polar jet (and polar low pressure systems), the documented glacial "soot" issues, the relative location of China/Asia with the prevailing wind flow from West to East in the Northern Latitudes across the North Pacific, and the unbridled hugely unregulated CO2 and other pollution emissions from China/Asia with their heavy fossil fuel burning production over the past 50 years (to fuel US consumers I might add as well as expand their industrial base), the answer as to these anomalies might lie somewhere with the above mentioned wind patterns and where they deposit and/or circulate these pollutants the most.  Just my amateur opinion; I don't know what the correct answer might be.    
Quoting 190. Naga5000:



My conjecture, is that there may be very localized areas of warming that are responsible, while the Berkeley Earth's maps are great for a big look, I think they may fail to tell the story of small scale regional pockets of warmth that may be at least partially responsible. Thoughts?
I'm wondering if perhaps there is some sub-surface volcanic/geothermal activity going on in that area, similar to or the remains of the Siberian Traps flood basalt event, or that there is residual warmth from that event which is warming and thawing the permafrost from below as the climate warms and the ground warms with it. The Siberian Traps are in the same region as the craters.


Washington Post

The Siberian crater saga is more widespread — and scarier — than anyone thought


Link
Will note that I realize that the discussion is focused on underground activity as well as noted below; that chart we are referencing also reminds me of the Pacific "ring of fire"............There may well be subsurface activity contributing to the permafrost melt as well and the pattern is most interesting to say the least.
Quoting 223. jpsb:



The holes look like almost perfect cylinders. How likely is that from a natural methane explosion?
Good morning J..I dont know. I am just now starting to study these things. When I first saw them. I


figured they were some type of geologic sinkhole. Now , I am not so sure.
Quoting 227. CaneFreeCR:

I'm wondering if perhaps there is some sub-surface volcanic/geothermal activity going on in that area, similar to or the remains of the Siberian Traps flood basalt event, or that there is residual warmth from that event which is warming and thawing the permafrost from below as the climate warms and the ground warms with it. The Siberian Traps are in the same region as the craters.


For reference:

Siberian Traps (Wiki)


(Source)
From the article posted by Grothar;


Of particular interest is the Siberian crater B2. Since its emergence, only six miles away from Bovanenkovo, a major Gazprom gas field, it has turned into a lake. But even now, photographs show, there are wisps of methane. The crater, covered by water, is still leaking gas. “This haze that you see on the surface show that gas seeps that go from the bottom of the lake to the surface,” Bogoyavlensky told the Siberian Times. “We call this process ‘degassing.’”

So, to recap: Siberia is warming. Permafrost thaws and spews methane, and blasting out a burst of highly flammable gas. Who could have guessed global warming would do all of that?

“No one knows what is happening in these craters at the moment,” Bogoyavlensky said. “We plan a new expedition.”

Quoting 223. jpsb:



The holes look like almost perfect cylinders. How likely is that from a natural methane explosion?

From the article linked By LA Bonbon:
Romanovskythinks he knows how this occurs: Pressurized gas — mostly methane, but possibly carbon dioxide as well — exists beneath the permafrost. Since warming temperatures thaw the permafrost from the bottom up, an underground cavity forms, Romanovsky said. As the gas gets close to the surface, it deforms the ground above, creating a small hill. Finally, the pressurized gas erupts through the surface, forming a crater, he said.

In November 2014, scientists went on an expedition to study the Yamal crater, snapping some stunning photos. Vladimir Pushkarev, director of the Russian Centre of Arctic Exploration, actually climbed down into the crater on a rope to observe it from the inside.

"You can see from the photographs a very different structure," where most of the hole is caved in, but only the upper 16 to 23 feet (5 to 7 m) looks like a crater, Romanovsky told Live Science. "Only the upper several meters [of ground] was thrown away, but most of the hole was actually there before the eruption."
Quoting 210. ricderr:

So what?


so...it's the last time we're going to see values that high for awhile....look at the cool anomaly in the eastern enso region...as that traverses into the 3.4 region soon....we're going to see anomaly values drop rather quickly




Now that is funny as the Eastern region that has the cool anomaly is getting push away or eroded as the warm pool continues pushing east. There is no cool pool pushing west. This leading to what is about to become a more traditional El-Nino (eastern Based this summer). Now if you were saying the anomalies across Nino 4 will drop then I would agree as there is a cool pool near Nino 4.



Peat is very interesting in its own right..Link
Quoting 216. ricderr:

Its suppose to go super by June :)

only if you're a certain weather blogger.....i have yet to see any professional met state this


First off no one said Super El-Nino. That is just a lie. A moderate one looks likely IMO but i wouldn't rule out a strong one come this Fall.
Quoting 232. LAbonbon:


For reference:

Siberian Traps (Wiki)


(Source)
Thanks, Bonnie -- I was going to try to post that map. It's very interesting that the area of greatest warm surface temps anomaly, the area of what appears to be the outflow that formed the traps, and the area of the mysterious craters all seem to coincide. Something for sure is going on and it ain't good!
On those craters, and how they form, they should consider setting up cameras in those areas (if they haven't already) or other systems and waiting to see if they can capture a crater actually forming in real time to have footage to study.....Fascinating stuff.
Quoting 235. StormTrackerScott:



Now that is funny as the Eastern region that has the cool anomaly is getting push away or eroded as the warm pool continues pushing east. There is no cool pool pushing west. This leading to what is about to become a more traditional El-Nino (eastern Based this summer). Now if you were saying the anomalies across Nino 4 will drop then I would agree as there is a cool pool near Nino 4.







i'm sorry scott...you state that the pool is pushing east..which you've stated earlier will end west up in the enso 1/2 region......and then post a gif....showing it push west.......

edit: never mind me folks...i can figure out my west from east....it is indeed push east..
.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


First off no one said Super El-Nino. That is just a lie. A moderate one looks likely IMO but i wouldn't rule out a strong one come this Fall.


Do you mean recently or in the past? Cause I guarantee that in the past you were hyping daily a super el nino. So now you've reduced your hype to a "strong" el nino.
242. MahFL
Quoting 233. weathermanwannabe:

But even now, photographs show, there are wisps of methane.


That can't be methane because methane is a colorless, odorless gas.
Quoting 240. ricderr:




i'm sorry scott...you state that the pool is pushing east..which you've stated earlier will end west up in the enso 1/2 region......and then post a gif....showing it push west.......



LMAO...never mind scott...i don't know my east from my west this morning........however...take away the west in my original comment...change it to east....and you can still see the cool anomalies that will soon enter the 3.4 region
244. MahFL
I like this graphic.

Quoting 241. jrweatherman:


Do you mean recently or in the past? Cause I guarantee that in the past you were hyping daily a super el nino. So now you've reduced your hype to a "strong" el nino.


I believe he did not mention a "super" just a "raging" one ;-)
Quoting 240. ricderr:




i'm sorry scott...you state that the pool is pushing east..which you've stated earlier will end west up in the enso 1/2 region......and then post a gif....showing it push west.......


What you make no sense as the warm pool is pushing east which right now that pool is beneath Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 as that is why those values are so warm but this pool is moving East and will cause a spike across Nino 1&2 come April. Again there is no Cool pool moving east you are essentially making no sense today. Can you not see the warm pool moving from right to left?
Quoting 242. MahFL:



That can't be methane because methane is a colorless, odorless gas.

Unless they are looking at the "steam" vapor coming off the water (containing the methane) from the warmer methane bubble as it reaches the cold air.
248. redux
I read an interesting thought exploring the hypothesis that warm sea water has melted the permafrost from below...seeing as the depth of the blow holes were deeper than the elevation of the existing surface....and that it appears to be situated about a delta...perhaps the permafrost kept the delta from sinking...

I don't know how valid it is, but the concept got me thinking...
I want one!! I want to be the first in my neighborhood with a Siberian Crater!

"Act now and you will also get a set of Ginsu steak knives!"

But don't let your in-laws get too close to the edge...wink, wink ;-)

Finally sun in SC today. Aloha.

Quoting 228. Grothar:



Washington Post

The Siberian crater saga is more widespread — and scarier — than anyone thought


Link

Quoting 236. hydrus:

Peat is very interesting in its own right..Link

Interesting to me is the statement that the thickness of peat generally ranges from 1.5 to 2.3 meters. This would seem to implicate the gas fields (and/or past volcanic activity) in formation of the pockets, whereas recent warming might explain the eruption at the surface.
for the love of god i need my morning coffee to kick in..........


Now if you were saying the anomalies across Nino 4 will drop then I would agree as there is a cool pool near Nino 4.


that cool pool....will be in the enso 3.4 region in the next 30 to 60 days
This is from 5 years ago, but I liked the graphic. Even though it shows submerged permafrost, the concept of 'heating from above and below' could be (is?) similar to the terrestrial craters.

From a National Science Foundation Press Release, dated March 4, 2010, 'Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated':


Quoting ricderr:



i'm sorry scott...you state that the pool is pushing east..which you've stated earlier will end west up in the enso 1/2 region......and then post a gif....showing it push west.......


Groundhog Day. I think I'll get my toaster, plug it in and drop it in the bathtub while I'm sitting in it. It's the only answer. Or I could stand on the green and hold my 3 iron high in the air and wait for a lightning strike from these storms that come in from the Gulf. Problem is, despite what some forecast, they seem to almost always weaken as they approach the coast.

Btw- haven't taken a bath in probably 50 years.
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if it is what I think it is
things are going to get real ugly
in but a short time
a lot sooner than the suggested
2050 mark
maybe as soon as 2020/2025




I agree about having reached a tipping point and it may already be getting ugly, particularly for those in Sao Paulo and in California.
Quoting 251. ricderr:

for the love of god i need my morning coffee to kick in..........


Now if you were saying the anomalies across Nino 4 will drop then I would agree as there is a cool pool near Nino 4.


that cool pool....will be in the enso 3.4 region in the next 30 to 60 days


Well that is not what is being shown.

CFSv2


Euro


Here is the rest of the Dynamical models below. Generally all but one show a general rise.
Horse latitudes



Q From Paul Wiele, Syracuse University: Where does horse latitudes come from, meaning areas that have little or no wind? One of my professors recounted a story that the term came from sailors being stranded there for so long that they’d throw their horses overboard to conserve the remaining supplies and lighten the ship. He doubted this explanation, and I’m inclined to agree. What do you say?

A Horse latitudes is a mariner’s term for a band of irregular and unreliable winds that lie about 30 degrees north and south of the equator. They can suffer periods of calm, a persistent nuisance in the days of sail, though less well known to landlubbers than the infamous doldrums around the equator.
The story about casting horses overboard is old and, for example, appears in George Forster’s memoir about one of Captain Cook’s expeditions, A Voyage Round the World in his Britannic Majesty’s Sloop Resolution, dated 1777. You might feel it would have been more practical to kill and eat the horses, fresh meat being at a premium on board ship. It doesn’t make (horse) sense.

Another explanation appears in Seafaring Lore and Legend by Peter D Jeans, published in 2004, “In the earlier days of sail, ships out of the English Channel took about two months to get clear of these particular latitudes, by which time the crew had worked off their advance pay, known as the dead horse. The crew celebrated this event by parading a straw horse around the deck, flogging it with a rope’s end, and then throwing it overboard.” Let us not flog this dead horse for more than it’s worth, which isn’t a lot.
In an article with the title The Sense of “Horse” in Horse Latitudes in The Journal of Geography in October 1967, Edward Taube suggested an origin in a maritime sense of the verb horse recorded from the end of the seventeenth century. A ship that was horsed was being carried along by a strong current or tide, like a rider on horseback. He suggested that, in an area of light winds such as that found south of the Azores, currents would control the movement of the ship and the term might have been transferred to the location.

Yet a fourth explanation is in Robert Scott’s Elementary Meteorology of 1883: “The Horse Latitudes, a title which Mr. Laughton derives from the Spanish El Golfo de las Yeguas, the Mares’ Sea, from its unruly and boisterous nature.” This has a lot going for it. Golfo de las Yeguas is a term of some antiquity in Spanish. Lopez de Gómara wrote in El Camino Para las Indias (The Road to the Indies) in 1552: “The worst part of the passage is the Golfo de las Yeguas between the Canaries and Spain.” But why mares? A little earlier, 1535, Gonzalo Fernández de Oviedo y Valdés noted in his Historia General y Natural de las Indias that mariners gave it this name because many brood mares being shipped from Spain to the Canaries died on board.

This explanation, though much nearer the date of creation of the expression, may be just as incorrect as other stories. But it would surely be too much of a coincidence for this not to be the source of the English term.

Based on the Florida experiences with sinkholes in Central Florida, a sinkhole by definition is caused by a loss-erosion of the subsurface with the collapse on the surface. In Florida, I believe that the issue is related to collapses is related to water pooling underground:

As the name suggests, sinkholes are naturally occurring holes in the surface of the earth. Sinkholes can form gradually or -- as in the tragic case in Florida -- suddenly.They form in areas where water flowing underground has dissolved rock-- typically limestone -- below the surface, leading to the formation of underground voids into which the surface sediment falls, according to the website of the Florida Sinkhole Research Institute. They vary in size from 1 to 600 meters.

Sinkholes are found all over the world. In the U.S.,sinkholes are especially common in Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Florida, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.


In this case (Siberia), the "hole" is similar but it could be combination of water, volcanic activity seeping to the surface, or other cause.
Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:



Well that is not what is being shown.

CFSv2


Euro


Here is the rest of the Dynamical models below. Generally all but one show a general rise.

Prepare yourselves for a Super La Niña. :P
East and will cause a spike across Nino 1&2 come April


scott......might you tell me/us...the actual warmest temps of the anomaly...and then reference the mid to late april average surface temps of the nino 1/2 region..........

the reason i mention this...is this is the same as last year albeit this one is a a month later.......if you remember...we saw another kelvin wave...in fact even more impressive than this one...and as it surfaced....due to the warming spring/summer weather...it had little to no affect on the enso regions...i believe that if you do the above exercise...you might find the same outcome
Well...I blame Keep for posting that article last night...got me so intrigued it derailed my morning!

Must attempt to be productive...be back later to see what you all might have dug up. :D
Well that is not what is being shown.

CFSv2



scott...i also think you are forgetting another lesson we learned from last year....we are now in a time when the models are least accurate.....so rather than only watch models that should not be trusted....might you look at the espi....at the soi....at wind anomalies...and cloudiness.....
262. beell
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas continues to prove it has the most bipolar weather in our country.




And we still get asked if we want paper or plastic at the grocery store. We're bi-sackual as well...
Quoting 259. ricderr:

East and will cause a spike across Nino 1&2 come April


scott......might you tell me/us...the actual warmest temps of the anomaly...and then reference the mid to late april average surface temps of the nino 1/2 region..........

the reason i mention this...is this is the same as last year albeit this one is a a month later.......if you remember...we saw another kelvin wave...in fact even more impressive than this one...and as it surfaced....due to the warming spring/summer weather...it had little to no affect on the enso regions...i believe that if you do the above exercise...you might find the same outcome



The difference this time around is this record high PDO that we have had the last few months and I've mentioned this before and got hammered for it only to have Dr. Bob Henson come on a say basically the samething and that is PDO levels this high tend to lead to a better chance of getting a El-Nino. The fact that last years El-Nino busted when PDO levels were neutral only to warm late in the year leads me to believe this is why so many models have jumped on the El-Nino train over the last 30 days. I do think we will see El-Nino this year and it will likely be atleast moderate in strength. Also this El-Nino being a more traditional one will lead to even a more active Winter across the South and Mid Atlantic next year.
Quoting 257. weathermanwannabe:

Based on the Florida experiences with sinkholes in Central Florida, a sinkhole by definition is caused by a loss-erosion of the subsurface with the collapse on the surface. In Florida, I believe that the issue is related to collapses is related to water pooling underground:

As the name suggests, sinkholes are naturally occurring holes in the surface of the earth. Sinkholes can form gradually or -- as in the tragic case in Florida -- suddenly.They form in areas where water flowing underground has dissolved rock-- typically limestone -- below the surface, leading to the formation of underground voids into which the surface sediment falls, according to the website of the Florida Sinkhole Research Institute. They vary in size from 1 to 600 meters.

Sinkholes are found all over the world. In the U.S.,sinkholes are especially common in Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Florida, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.


In this case (Siberia), the "hole" is similar but it could be combination of water, volcanic activity seeping to the surface, or other cause.

If you haven't checked it out, JohnLonergan's link in post #212 is worth checking out. There's a section there showing geologic conditions for the Yamal Peninsula. What would be really helpful would be to see the holes plotted as an overlay on some of these maps. We'll have to wait for some of the additional research results that's sure to be forthcoming.
The difference this time around is this record high PDO that we have had the last few months and I've mentioned this before and got hammered for it only to have Dr. Bob Henson come on a say basically the samething and that is PDO levels this high tend to lead to a better chance of getting a El-Nino. The fact that last years El-Nino busted when PDO levels were neutral only to warm late in the year leads me to believe this is why so many models have jumped on the El-Nino train over the last 30 days


scott....the optimum word is "chance"...it's by no means a certainty.....however...when the pdo was high...and we had the best chance of having an el nino....the climatic conditions that should have coupled el nino....did not.......it's a far assumption to assume that the pdo is the driving force for the recent uptick in the enso models...especially when last year....we had the same uptick...we have to go with certainties..and that is once again...this is the time of year...when the models perform poorly
Quoting 250. oldnewmex:


Interesting to me is the statement that the thickness of peat generally ranges from 1.5 to 2.3 meters. This would seem to implicate the gas fields (and/or past volcanic activity) in formation of the pockets, whereas recent warming might explain the eruption at the surface.
Yep...And peat is a player to be sure where greenhouse gases are concerned..

Most modern peat bogs formed in high latitudes after the retreat of the glaciers at the end of the last ice age some 12,000 years ago. Peat usually accumulates slowly, at the rate of about a millimeter per year.

It is currently believed that the peat in the world's peatlands has been forming for 360 million years and contains 550 Gt of carbon.

Peat has a high carbon content and can burn under low moisture conditions. Once ignited by the presence of a heat source (e.g., a wildfire penetrating the subsurface), it smolders. These smoldering fires can burn undetected for very long periods of time (months, years, and even centuries) propagating in a creeping fashion through the underground peat layer. Peat fires are emerging as a global threat with significant economic, social, and ecological impacts.[citation needed] Recent burning of peat bogs in Indonesia, with their large and deep growths containing more than 50 billion tons of carbon, has contributed to increases in world carbon dioxide levels.[citation needed] Peat deposits in Southeast Asia could be destroyed by 2040.

It is estimated that in 1997, peat and forest fires in Indonesia released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon; equivalent to 13%u201340 percent of the amount released by global fossil fuel burning, and greater than the carbon uptake of the world's biosphere. These fires may be responsible for the acceleration in the increase in carbon dioxide levels since 1998.More than 100 peat fires in Kalimantan and East Sumatra have continued to burn since 1997. Each year, the peat fires in Kalimantan and East Sumatra ignite new forest fires above the ground.
Under the appropriate circumstances, peat could be considered an early component in the formation of coal.

Quoting 264. LAbonbon:


If you haven't checked it out, JohnLonergan's link in post #212 is worth checking out. There's a section there showing geologic conditions for the Yamal Peninsula. What would be really helpful would be to see the holes plotted as an overlay on some of these maps. We'll have to wait for some of the additional research results that's sure to be forthcoming.

I see a little bit of "swamp" action there.............That is similar to some parts of Florida............ :)
Wow, I saw this in Orlando last week and it was spectacular there as well!
269. jpsb
Quoting 266. hydrus:

Yep...And peat is a player to be sure where greenhouse gases are concerned..

Most modern peat bogs formed in high latitudes after the retreat of the glaciers at the end of the last ice age some 12,000 years ago. Peat usually accumulates slowly, at the rate of about a millimeter per year.

It is currently believed that the peat in the world's peatlands has been forming for 360 million years and contains 550 Gt of carbon.

eat has a high carbon content and can burn under low moisture conditions. Once ignited by the presence of a heat source (e.g., a wildfire penetrating the subsurface), it smolders. These smoldering fires can burn undetected for very long periods of time (months, years, and even centuries) propagating in a creeping fashion through the underground peat layer. Peat fires are emerging as a global threat with significant economic, social, and ecological impacts.[citation needed] Recent burning of peat bogs in Indonesia, with their large and deep growths containing more than 50 billion tons of carbon, has contributed to increases in world carbon dioxide levels.[citation needed] Peat deposits in Southeast Asia could be destroyed by 2040.

It is estimated that in 1997, peat and forest fires in Indonesia released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon; equivalent to 13–40 percent of the amount released by global fossil fuel burning, and greater than the carbon uptake of the world's biosphere. These fires may be responsible for the acceleration in the increase in carbon dioxide levels since 1998.More than 100 peat fires in Kalimantan and East Sumatra have continued to burn since 1997. Each year, the peat fires in Kalimantan and East Sumatra ignite new forest fires above the ground.
Under the appropriate circumstances, peat could be considered an early component in the formation of coal.


It is currently theorized that the Siberian Traps eruption triggered massive coal fires which were a major contributor to the great Permian extinction event.
The source of the Siberian Traps basalt has variously been attributed to a mantle plume which impacted the base of the earth's crust and erupted through the Siberian Craton, or to processes related to plate tectonics. Another possible cause may be the impact that formed the Wilkes Land crater, which may have been contemporaneous and would have been nearly antipodal to the Traps. This controversial scientific debate is ongoing.

The Siberian Traps are considered to have erupted via numerous vents over a period of roughly a million years or more, probably east and south of Norilsk in Siberia. Individual eruptions of basalt lavas could have exceeded 2000 km3.

The presence of extensive tuff and pyroclastic deposits suggests that a number of large explosive eruptions occurred during or before the eruptions of basaltic lavas. The presence of silicic volcanic rocks such as rhyolite is also indicative of explosive eruptions.
One of the World Heritage Sites, the Putorana Plateau, is composed of Siberian Traps
Impact on prehistoric life

This massive eruptive event spanned the Permian-Triassic boundary, about 250 million years ago, and is cited as a possible cause of the Permian-Triassic extinction event.One of the major questions is whether the Siberian Traps was directly responsible, or if it was itself caused by some other larger event, such as an asteroid impact. A recent hypothesis put forward is that the volcanism was a trigger that led to an explosion of the growth of Methanosarcina, a microbe that then spewed enormous amounts of methane into Earth's atmosphere.

This extinction event, also called the Great Dying, affected all life on Earth, and is estimated to have killed 90% of species living at the time. Life on land took at least 30 million years to fully recover from the environmental disruptions which may have been caused by the eruption of the Siberian Traps. Calculations of sea water temperature from measurements indicate that at its peak, the earth underwent lethally hot global warming, in which equatorial ocean temperatures exceeded 40 C (about 105 F).WIKI
Quoting 269. jpsb:



It is currently theorized that the Siberian Traps eruption triggered massive coal fires which were a major contributor to the great Permian extinction event.
makes a great deal of sense..Considering the peat has been around for at least 360 million years.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The difference this time around is this record high PDO that we have had the last few months and I've mentioned this before and got hammered for it only to have Dr. Bob Henson come on a say basically the samething and that is PDO levels this high tend to lead to a better chance of getting a El-Nino. The fact that last years El-Nino busted when PDO levels were neutral only to warm late in the year leads me to believe this is why so many models have jumped on the El-Nino train over the last 30 days. I do think we will see El-Nino this year and it will likely be atleast moderate in strength. Also this El-Nino being a more traditional one will lead to even a more active Winter across the South and Mid Atlantic next year.



If you are so certain now because of the high PDO level, then why were you so certain day after day a year ago when the PDO levels were lower?
It doesn't make sense.
273. bwi
I think winter is winding down for DC. You heard it here first -- no more snow for us. Also not thinking the "wintry mix" forecasts coming up are going to amount to much!

Rain, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 59. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Quoting 260. LAbonbon:

Well...I blame Keep for posting that article last night...got me so intrigued it derailed my morning!

Must attempt to be productive...be back later to see what you all might have dug up. :D

something drew me to it
I don't know what but it overtook me for a bit
as my brain was trying to come up with a reasonable explanation
and I searched for items and info on it
and I don't really like what my brain is telling me

so I think it would be better to see what some other brains got to say about it

Quoting 270. hydrus:

The source of the Siberian Traps basalt has variously been attributed to a mantle plume which impacted the base of the earth's crust and erupted through the Siberian Craton, or to processes related to plate tectonics. Another possible cause may be the impact that formed the Wilkes Land crater, which may have been contemporaneous and would have been nearly antipodal to the Traps. This controversial scientific debate is ongoing.

The Siberian Traps are considered to have erupted via numerous vents over a period of roughly a million years or more, probably east and south of Norilsk in Siberia. Individual eruptions of basalt lavas could have exceeded 2000 km3.

The presence of extensive tuff and pyroclastic deposits suggests that a number of large explosive eruptions occurred during or before the eruptions of basaltic lavas. The presence of silicic volcanic rocks such as rhyolite is also indicative of explosive eruptions.
One of the World Heritage Sites, the Putorana Plateau, is composed of Siberian Traps
Impact on prehistoric life

This massive eruptive event spanned the Permian-Triassic boundary, about 250 million years ago, and is cited as a possible cause of the Permian-Triassic extinction event.One of the major questions is whether the Siberian Traps was directly responsible, or if it was itself caused by some other larger event, such as an asteroid impact. A recent hypothesis put forward is that the volcanism was a trigger that led to an explosion of the growth of Methanosarcina, a microbe that then spewed enormous amounts of methane into Earth's atmosphere.

This extinction event, also called the Great Dying, affected all life on Earth, and is estimated to have killed 90% of species living at the time. Life on land took at least 30 million years to fully recover from the environmental disruptions which may have been caused by the eruption of the Siberian Traps. Calculations of sea water temperature from measurements indicate that at its peak, the earth underwent lethally hot global warming, in which equatorial ocean temperatures exceeded 40 C (about 105 F).WIKI
just imagine a hurricane forming with 105f ssts hypercane anyone
snow and ice on roads at fort worth,tx!!
Quoting 246. StormTrackerScott:



What you make no sense as the warm pool is pushing east which right now that pool is beneath Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 as that is why those values are so warm but this pool is moving East and will cause a spike across Nino 1&2 come April. Again there is no Cool pool moving east you are essentially making no sense today. Can you not see the warm pool moving from right to left?
Lets see how warm the water is when the ocean starts to warm due to the spring and summer warm up. I highly doubt you will see much of an anomaly as is being shown now. This warm pool of water will start to cool as it enters the mid and eastern Pacific as the west winds will die out and the warm water will slowly cool. There might be a weak, short lived El-Nino declared this spring, but it should return to neutral for the summer and hurricane season. One more time do not trust the models during this time of year, wait for the end of spring, summer forecast. How many times have these models busted this time of year?
Quoting 253. luvtogolf:



Groundhog Day. I think I'll get my toaster, plug it in and drop it in the bathtub while I'm sitting in it. It's the only answer. Or I could stand on the green and hold my 3 iron high in the air and wait for a lightning strike from these storms that come in from the Gulf. Problem is, despite what some forecast, they seem to almost always weaken as they approach the coast.

Btw- haven't taken a bath in probably 50 years.


Groundhog Day is a pretty good analogy to this blog on a daily basis, not just the comment you replied to.
Rain is wreaking havoc with the Honda Classic in WPB.


i see we have a new snow storm to watch
Quoting 254. aevil2:



I agree about having reached a tipping point and it may already be getting ugly, particularly for those in Sao Paulo and in California.
The droughts in those regions have happened many times in the past, and have been a lot worse than the ones now. Climate change is not causing the droughts it's a natural cycle.
Scott - I'm not seeing any model that is calling for the amount and length of rain you mentioned in an earlier comment. Can you please post what you are looking at that shows this?
Quoting 275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just imagine a hurricane forming with 105f ssts hypercane anyone
I was just messing with some numbers. 105 F ocean temps could generate about a 250 mph sustained with gusts near 300 mph..If conditions were near perfect for development.
Quoting 196. StormTrackerScott:

Rainy couple of days setting up for FL. Rain should begin tonight across C FL and last pretty much all day tomorrow. Could pick up .5 to 1" of rain on top of already nearly 4" so far this month.




That might be a little overkill, but I won't count it out though, we were a bit below average for the month here but we ended up with 2.26 from the strong line of thunderstorms the other night that brought some severe weather. That was surprisingly heavy rain, at least 1.50-1.75 of my total fell in only 20 minutes, which isn't shocking in the summer but in February that's nuts. The rainfall rate was downright crazy for about 5-10 minutes relatively speaking for a late February thunderstorm. We still have big water puddles in the grass behind my apartment.
Leonard Nimoy, ‘Star Trek’s’ Spock, Dies at 83
Sorry if anyone else has posted this by any chance but was looking through Alexa.com for website traffic and checked out TropicalTidbits on there. Looks like someones got a popular site going this winter. :)



Quoting 287. hydrus:




some rain for me till backside change over back to snow I see
hope no ice that's all I ask for
Quoting 282. NativeSun:

The droughts in those regions have happened many times in the past, and have been a lot worse than the ones now. Climate change is not causing the droughts it's a natural cycle.


That's certainly debatable as recent studies with different methodologies have shown the drought may be linked to climate change and may not be.

How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

"Abstract

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures."

and

Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought


"The current drought is not part of a long-term change in California precipitation, which exhibits no appreciable trend since 1895. Key oceanic features that caused precipitation inhibiting atmospheric ridging off the West Coast during 2011-14 were symptomatic of natural internal atmosphere-ocean variability.

Model simulations indicate that human-induced climate change increases California precipitation in mid-winter, with a low-pressure circulation anomaly over the North Pacific, opposite to conditions of the last 3 winters. The same model simulations indicate a decrease in spring precipitation over California. However, precipitation deficits observed during the past three years are an order of magnitude greater than the model simulated changes related to human-induced forcing. Nonetheless, record setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming."

So there's that...Again, I ask you to tell the most accurate representation we have and to not create your own.
It looks looks like over the next two weeks the weather is going to be very boring in the mid-atlantic.I'm ready for Spring thunderstorms.
M 7.0 - 131km N of Nebe, Indonesia
2015-02-27 05:45:05 UTC-08:00
Location
7.288°S 122.532°E
Depth
552.3 km
really deep then a few here hours later

M 5.7 - 64km NNE of Anatahan, Northern Mariana Islands
2015-02-27 08:24:50 UTC-08:00
Location
16.918°N 145.838°E
Depth
19.7 km
Quoting 275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just imagine a hurricane forming with 105f ssts hypercane anyone



That is exactly what I was thinking as well as constant, massive thunderstorms...
Quoting washingtonian115:
It looks looks like over the next two weeks the weather is going to be very boring in the mid-atlantic.I'm ready for Spring thunderstorms.


How much snow have you had this year?
296. jpsb
Quoting 282. NativeSun:

The droughts in those regions have happened many times in the past, and have been a lot worse than the ones now. Climate change is not causing the droughts it's a natural cycle.


California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say

Could California's Drought Last 200 Years?

From the above link

What's causing the current drought?

Ingram and other paleoclimatologists have correlated several historic megadroughts with a shift in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every 20 to 30 years—something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO is similar to an El Nino event except it lasts for decades—as its name implies—whereas an El Nino event lasts 6 to 18 months. Cool phases of the PDO result in less precipitation because cooler sea temperatures bump the jet stream north, which in turn pushes off storms that would otherwise provide rain and snow to California. Ingram says entire lakes dried up in California following a cool phase of the PDO several thousand years ago. Warm phases have been linked to numerous storms along the California coast."

Quoting 295. luvtogolf:



How much snow have you had this year?
70 inches of snow in east haven,conn this year so far
Good Morning Class! NWS still forecasting rain in Soo Cal starting tonight and lasting into Tuesday......a trof of low pressure will create numerous showers........we should be able to handle these rain totals with little flooding.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RESULTED THIS MORNING FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. SOME CLOUDS WILL STAY WITH US ALL DAY TODAY AS A
WINTER STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS
SOME COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER
WATER. IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET
SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE
ARE DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.65 INCH.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO 4000
FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12 INCHES. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE
SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE TROUGH OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND END THE PRECIP
THEN. THE EURO MODEL HANGS ON TO THE TROUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER
STORM WATCH LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY
LAXNPWSGX.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Leonard Nimoy, ‘Star Trek’s’ Spock, Dies at 83

A sad day for Sci-Fi Fans and others; one of the Icons of the 20th Century on Television; Godspeed to His Family and Loved Ones.  Gonna take this one as hard as I did Robin Williams.............At least, at that age, he certainly Lived Long and Prospered.